大家好 hello everyone
欢迎来到这个周末的每周学习环节 welcome to this weekend's weekly study session
今天我要做一个简短的版本 today I'm gonna have a shortened version
无法触及单个股票 not going to be able to get to the individual stocks
今天因为我 today because I
刚刚走了10个半小时 was traveling and just traveled 10 and a half hours
回来的时间比我预期的要晚 and got back later than I expected
所以我筋疲力尽 so I'm exhausted
我确实有机会做一些一般性的市场工作 I did get a chance to do some general market work
我们要复习一下 we're going to go over the
普通市场马上就到 general market in just a second here
但是我们会做一些 but we'll do some
我们明天再谈股票 we'll talk about stocks tomorrow
在问答环节中 during the q amp a session
当然 and we'll have of course
马克里基·伊和鲍勃·韦斯曼 markridge yi and bob weissman myself
明天1130直播 live tomorrow at 1130
让我们来看看 let's take a look at the
风险模型 risk model
风险模型仍然取决于手机信号 you see the risk model is still on that cell signal
我们现在一直有手机信号 we have been firmly on a cell signal now
从11月20日开始，从来没有 since November 20 seconds and never even
真的搬到比尔德去了 moved to bilder so really
你什么都不该做 you shouldn't have been doing anything
当然，任何积极的营销 certainly anything aggressive in this marketing
与但住 alongside but staying
要么是现金，要么是准备好弹药 very much in cash or keeping your powder very dry
所以你应该不会受到太大的伤害 so you shouldn't be suffering much damage here
你可以看到股票的参与 you can see that the stock participation
我们从中立变成了消极 we actually moved down from neutral to negative
上周 last week
我不太喜欢我在这个人身上看到的东西 I don't really like what I'm seeing in the individual
我不得不说，我看到了一些安排 named I am seeing some setups I have to say
但那些试图突破的股票 but the stocks that have tried to break out
当然有例外 with exception of course
石油类股，还有一些可能是农业类股 of the oil names and some maybe some ag stocks
有一些领域正在发挥作用 there are some areas that are working
但这只是市场的一小部分 but it's a very narrow slice of the market
我们研究这个有一段时间了 we've been onto this for a while
当然，我们一开始是让副局长李起飞的 of course we started with the xo lea taking off
从那时起，石油这个名字就开始流行起来 and since then the oil name comes on really well
但我们说的不是广泛参与 but we're just not saying that broad participation
就像我说的 like I said
你可以看看西方石油 you take a look at something like occidental petroleum
真的很棒 really acting great here
我是说现在你开始 I mean now you're starting to get
这是短期内的高潮 a little bit climactic here in the short term
还有石油，我马上就会讲到 along with oil which I'll talk about in just a second
正确的下面 right down here
你可以看到那个便宜的入口在哪里 you can see where that little cheap entry was
硬币硬币的大小，如果我们看一下xle that coin coin size if we take a look at the xle
我喜欢xl lee，你看 I like the xl lee here look at that
这就是我们买的 that's what we bought
如果你还记得 that if you remember
一个完全一致 a coincides perfectly
其中一些人的名字 with some of those individual names
至少还表现得不错 xl least still acting good too
我把那辆赫尔利卖了 I sold that hurley of course
像哈利伯顿一样 something like haliburton also maybe
也许放点番茄酱的高汤 maybe a stock that might place some ketchup here
比如奥施康定 to something like an oxy
在这个小的自然反应中 in this little natural reaction here
我希望这个可以再往上一点 I would expect this maybe to move up a little bit more
当然，很明显 but of course clearly
一个很好的距离 a good distance from
我们看到的分数较低的作弊 the low cheat by points that we saw
在这些名字中 in many of these names
回到普通市场 getting back to the general market
所以股票参与率下降了 so stock participation came down
牢牢抓住那个手机信号 firmly on that cell signal
一直追溯到11月22日 going back all the way to November 22
长期趋势 the long term trend
当然 of course
基于我们的吹涨期趋势模型向中性移动 based on our blown term trend model moved to neutral
在过去几周或几周前 in the past few weeks or a few weeks ago
它仍然是中性的 and it's still at neutral
手机没信号了 hasn't gone on that cell signal
我之前也说过 and I pointed out before that
有时你会得到这个 sometimes you'll get this
模型类型是一种长期趋势 type of model which is a longer term trend
会有手机信号吗 will go on a cell signal and
这将是最糟糕的读数 it will be at its worst reading
在你跌到谷底的时候 at the time that you bottom
所以你开始寻找 so you start looking for
触底的迹象 the signs of bottoming
当你接收到这些信号时，这些信号变长了 when you get those cell signals and these longer
项数据 term readings
如果你不能团结起来 and then if you can't rally
市场看起来依然疲软 and the markets continues to look weak
然后你开始质疑是否 then you start to question whether
这是一个长期的局面 it's a longer term situation
你会在哪里进入长期熊市 where you might be into a secular bear market
或者会有更糟糕的事情发生 or something that's going to get a lot worse
现在 right now
最重要的是看股票 the most important thing is looking at the stocks
以及股票交易环境模型 and the stock trading environment model
干模型只看股票本身 stem model looks at the stocks all by themselves
没有其他因素影响这个模型 nothing else affects this model
我们仍然坚持红色 and we are still firmly on red
没有任何改善 with no no improvement
直到我们看到这方面的改善 until we see improvement in this
你不想变得咄咄逼人 you do not want to get aggressive
在股票停车场的长边 in the stock parking on the long side
看看najdac taking a look at the najdac
和 and
纳粹看起来很像 the nazi look similar
我们今天确实摔了一跤 we did have a fall through day
我们的下跌是合理的 we had a valid fall through day
在试图集会的第6天 on the 6th day of attempt at rally
当然是回到这里 going back here of course
1月2月 January in February
但正如我多次指出的首先，这不是 but as I pointed out many times first of all this isn't
你知道的，一天的跟踪 you know a follow through day
并不意味着 doesn't mean
你要去市场上投资 that you're going to go and jump in the market
这只是一个迹象 it's just a one sign
或者用一种工具来表明 or one tool that we look at to get an indication that
你有积累 you've got accumulation
有机构进入市场 got institutions coming into the market
然后我们寻找股票设置 and then we look for the stock setups
也是为了分发 and also for distribution
经过一天的跟踪后立即分发 immediate distribution after a follow through day
通常是对集会的致命一击 is usually a death blow to the rally
你可以看到这里有分布 and you can see we got distribution right here
就在follow through一天之后 right after the follow through day
然后是另一个分发日 and then another distribution day
我们确实在这里积累了几天时间 and we did have a couple accumulation days here
我不认为他们是有效的 not where I would call them valid follow through days
我们的体积增加了 what we had an increase in volume
市场上涨了 and the market was up
然而在每次积累尝试之后 however after every accumulation attempt
从天降之日起 from the falleth of day on
你可以看到 you can see that there was
在这之后立即分发 immediate distribution right after here
我们有连续三天的分配 we had three consecutive days of distribution here
就在上周，你有积累的一天，然后 just last week you had that accumulation day and then
然后我们就有了分销渠道 boom we had a distribution
周五是发放日 and then Friday a distribution day
这就是我所说的分布主导带 so this is what I call a distribution dominant tape
你必须非常 and you've got to be very
当你在一个分布主导的磁带时要小心 careful when you're in a distribution dominant tape
特别是如果你没有股票设置的话 especially if you've got no stock setups
或者是那些试图突围的股票设置 or the stock setups that are trying to break out
轴心失效了吗 are having pivot failures and they're not
但它们不起作用 and they're not working
非常危险的环境 very dangerous environment
所以这里还是要小心 so you still have to be careful here
看看ibd 50 looking at the ibd 50
这真的是 this is really a
对命名类型的描述，我们一般会 depiction of the type of named that we would generally
交通状况 traffic in
你可以看到我们已经非常接近低点了 you can see we're very close to the lows here
一次又一次 and again
你已经得到了这个主元 you've got this little pivot that's formed if you will
就像低级的欺骗 like a low cheat
我们想看到 we want to see
那种我们从那里突围出来的行动 that type of action where we break out from there
和股票参与 and stocks participate
你得到了这些积累 and you get that accumulation
在量和平均值 in the volume and the averages
之后没有任何发行 without any distribution following that
我们想看到所有的拼图碎片 we want to see all those pieces of the puzzle
在我们把一切都弄清楚之前，快过来 come together before we make the all clear
或者发出安全信号 or signal the all clear
现在是好的一面，我们可能接近低点 now a good side that we're getting maybe close to a low
当然我认为如果我们有另一个 certainly I think that if we had another
我想那是最后一条腿了 strong leg down I think that would be the last leg
至少我是这么想的 that's my feeling at least
我们有了 we've got the
熊现在出来了 the bears now out
编号公牛 numbering the bulls
对投资者智力情绪的调查 on the investors intelligent sentiment survey
我做了很多调查 and I follow a whole bunch of surveys
他们现在都相当悲观 and they're all quite bearish right now
我们还没有达到最极端的水平 we're not at the most extreme levels
但现在有很多看跌情绪 but there's a lot of bearishness right now
市场很公平，这很好 a lot of fair in the market and that's good
但这不是一个计时指标 but this isn't a timing indicator
这是这是一件事 okay that's that's one thing
另一件事 another thing
我想指出的是 that I want to point out is that
当你开始 when you start getting
在一个充满敌意的环境中 into a hostile interest in great environment
我不认为我们是 which I wouldn't say we're
在不利的利率环境中 in the midst of a hostile interest rate environment
但我们确实处在风口浪尖上 but it's certainly we're on the cusp
这很快就会发生 and that's going to be happening soon
所以我必须把它列为 so I would have to rank it as
我们正处在一个不利的利率环境中 we are in a hostile interest rate environment
你需要更多的消极情绪 you need more negative sentiment than if you're in a
利率环境非常好 very good interest rate environment
如果利率下降 so if interest rates are coming down
这是一个非常激进的联邦政府 and there's a real aggressive fed
注入货币体系 pump in the monetary system
你不需要这么悲观，但什么时候 you don't need this much bearishness but when
现在利率对我们不利 now that rates are moving against us
我们需要更多的空头 we're going to need more bearishness
现在我们关系紧张 now that we've got tensions
乌克兰和正在发生的局势 in Ukraine and the situations that are happening
我们还需要看到更多的悲观情绪 we're going to need to see even more pessimism
我想要寻找的是 the thing that I like to look for is
我想看到一份协议 I like to see an agreement of
不只是悲观什么 not only the pessimism what
通讯作者 newsletter writers are
和人们在说什么 saying and what people are saying
但实际上发生了什么 but what is actually happening
人们正在做的交易 with trading what people are doing
所以这两个我都想看看 so I like to see the both of those
一致认为，悲观的观点很多 in agreement and see a lot of pessimism
有一件事我还没见过，那就是 one thing I haven't seen is a real good degree of
看跌、买入和买入 put buying versus calls
所以我仍然认为这可以 so still I still think this could
你知道，也许我们还是得走了 you know maybe we still have to come off here
也许你可以把这个定律拿出来 maybe you can take out this law
我将在这里展示几个场景 I'm going to show you a few scenarios here in just a
第二，如果你还记得我说过的 second if you remember I talked about
1998年的情况是 the nineteen ninety eight scenario being
的环境中 an environment that
这可能会像我认为的一样 this might play out like I think it's similar
在很多方面，它可能在自然界中是典型的 in a lot of respects where it's typical maybe in nature
你在国际上遇到了麻烦 you've got troubles internationally
有一些相似之处，但在87次空难中也有 there's some similarities there but in also 87 crash
不，我总是在寻找崩溃 no I always among the lookout for a meltdown
但我认为那是 but I think that's
这不是我们要找的立体音响 that's not the type of stereo we're looking at
这是1990年的熊市 the 1990 bear market right here
也有类似的 also had similar
相似的特征存在于事实之中 similar characteristics in the fact that there was
我们当时正在酝酿一场战争 there was a war or a war brewing at that time when we
当我们在10月份跌到谷底时 when we made a lows in October
实际上我们在1月15日就开战了 we actually went to war in January 15
但是再一次 but again
这些都是我在寻找的情况 so those are sort of scenarios that I'm looking for
也许1990年 maybe the 1990
1998年 the nineteen ninety eight
我所设想的场景 scenario that I had on the table
我们在哪里削弱低 where we undercut the low
然后又过了一天 and then had that fileth of day
在98天的比赛中，我们遭遇了第6天的犯规 we had it the same we had a day six foul through day 98
但这是一个非常不同的特征 but a very different characteristic
上周我展示过这个的地方 where I showed this of course last week
市场刚刚起飞的地方 where the market just took off
我们要开始比赛了 and we're off to the race is pretty much
这不是在 that's not over
现在说或看到很多分销 saying now or seeing lots of distribution
所以这有点不同 so this is play out a little bit differently
我的意思是，它们不会完全一样 I mean they never play out exactly the same
你知道他们说 you know they say
市场的说法是没有 the market rhymes it doesn't
你知道它不会完全重复，但它是押韵的 you know it doesn't repeat exactly but it does rhyme
我想你知道 and I think you know
19 9是我们应该关注的 19 9 is one that we could be looking at
或者是2018 or possibly 2018
在哪里 where
2018年我们成功了，然后我们有了这个 happened was we came off in 2018 and then we had that
那快速的推倒那真实的 that quick push down that real
最后的落差太吓人了 scary drop at the end there
这可能会发生，谁知道呢 and that may happen with you know who knows
一些新闻也许 some news maybe
这里的油价一直在上涨，我们真的 you know oil keeps taking off here and we really
我们得到了更糟糕的东西 we get something even worse
来自俄罗斯和乌克兰 coming out of Russia and Ukraine
在那个时候 and at that point
我想如果我们从这些水平快速下滑 I think if we got a swift slide from these levels
我们现在的这种看跌情绪 and this type of bearishness that we have right now
我认为看跌情绪会加剧 I think bearishness would grow
指数增长很快 exponentially very quickly
我认为 and I think
那会降低你的恐慌或者让你投降 that would put in your panic low or your capitulation
所以我们可能要采取的可能性 so possibility that we may have to take
另一个幻灯片 another slide here
现在有5%的概率是50 right now there's about a 5% probability of a 50
基点 basis point
美联储将在3月会议上加息 of a rate hike from the fed at the March meeting
当然，有些人担心的是什么 which of course some people were worrying about
可能会有这种情况 that there might be this
比预期的大 larger than expected
加息 rate hike
我认为乌克兰局势可能导致了这一结果 I think the Ukraine situation might have come that down
随着油价的上涨 with oil prices moving up
三月份的会议有95%的可能性 the March meeting has about a 95% probability
25%的基础利率上调 of a 25% basis hike
鲍威尔最近表示，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰 powell said recently that russia's invasion of Ukraine
增加了不确定性 is increasing the uncertainty
潜在的可能是疲软的经济 and potential for maybe are softening the economy
但这名裁判员仍在前进 but the refed remains on course
还说美国经济没有 also said that the us economy does not have
对俄罗斯经济的直接敞口很大 large direct exposure to the Russian economy
而且影响会贯穿整个过程 and that the effects would run through
主要通过商品价格 mainly through commodity prices
当然，我们现在看到了石油 and of course we see oil now
向上移动，如果你能看到这里 moving up and if you can see right here
上周这里真的堵上了 on last week it really bolted up here
这就是向上推的东西 and that's what pushed up
其中一些股票喜欢奥施康定 some of these stocks like oxy
这里有一些名字 and some of these names here
所以如果你从更长远的角度来看石油 so if you look at the longer term on oil
我们要升到115级了 we're bumping against that 1 15 level
至少是轻质原油 in light crude at least
我们已经达到了 and we're coming up to those levels where
你开始影响经济 you start to affect the economy
它们可能是衰退的 and they can be recessionary which
在这一点上 at this point
信不信由你 believe it or not
这实际上可能是一件好事 this may actually turn out to be a good thing
这也是我这么做的另一个原因 and this is another reason why I was
指出这可能看起来像 pointing out that this might look like
这可能会发生在98年 this might play out like 98
因为98年我们有 because in 98 we had
我们经历了俄罗斯危机 we had the Russian crisis and
我们进行了一次高质量飞行 we had a flight to quality
结果是去了哪里 it turned out to where
资金涌入我们的市场，这就是我们的原因 money came to our markets and that's why we you know
那低价很快就削弱了低价吗 had that low pretty quickly the undercut the low
然后在这里低空起飞 and then made a low and took off here
这种情况也是一样 same thing with this situation
只有一点点不同 only a little bit different
我们要去哪里才能保证飞行质量呢 where we're going to get a flight to quality for sure
你可以看到俄罗斯人 I mean you can see the Russian
指数下跌了 index is down
或 or
我至少关注的一些etf下跌了8085% some of the etfs that I follow at least are down 8085%
我是说就像 I mean just like a
1987年的坠机次数是3次 nineteen eighty seven crash times three over there
但随着通货膨胀的加剧 but with inflation taking off
美联储不得不提高利率 and the fed having to raise rates
油价正在上涨 oil price is moving up
还有通胀压力 and sort of inflationary pressures
也许能帮上忙 might actually help the situation
和创建 and create
这抵消了部分通货膨胀 a softening where that offsets some of this inflation
尽管我们会得到 even though we're going to get
通货膨胀从石油 inflation from oil
这是一种很复杂的情况 so it is a like sort of a complex situation but
它可能会产生一种效果 it could have an effect that actually turns out to be
从长远来看，头发是看涨的 a bullish hair in the longer run
但是当我们向上移动到115以上 but as we move up and get above that 1 15
价格越高，超过115美元每5美元 the higher we go every $5 or so above 1 15
指数更 is exponentially more
对经济有更大的影响 has more effect on the economy
所以我认为关注石油是我们要做的一件事 so watching oil here I think is one thing that we got
我们得盯着点 we have to keep an eye on
分布占主导地位的磁带 distribution dominant tape
好的，这就是 okay and that's where the
天分布 the distribution days
堆积的日子是否铺天盖地 are overwhelming the accumulation days
在消息驱动的 where news driven
在一个非常不稳定的环境中 in a very volatile environment right now
,任何 that any
头条新闻可能会让市场上涨500点或更多 headline could move the market 500 points or more
我们正处在一个我称之为“硬硬币”的环境中 we're in what I call a hard penny environment where
利润很难获得 profits are very difficult to come by
我更喜欢宽松的美元环境 and I prefer the easy dollar environment
我在等待那种宽松的美元环境 I wait for that easy dollar environment
在我变得咄咄逼人之前 before I get aggressive
市场人气看起来相当不错 sentiment is looking pretty good
我的意思是，我们非常悲观 I mean we're very bearish here
站在相反的立场 which from a contrary standpoint
是看涨的，我认为 is bullish and I think
我们可能正处于周期性的熊市 we're probably in a cyclical bear market here
但我们需要看到的是坚持到底 but what we need to see is follow through
从没有索引的跟踪 a follow through from the indexes without
直接分配 immediate distribution
股票设置和牵引力来自 stock setups and then traction coming from
从这些设置中出现的突破 the breakouts that come out of those setups
所以 so
这就是我们想要看到的三个步骤 those are sort of the three steps that we want to see
我们现在还没有看到 and we're not seeing any of it yet
这可能发生得非常快 okay so this can happen very quickly
别以为这事不谈了 don't think that this is off the table
我们得花几个月的时间 and we've got to be months into
在熊市中 in a bear market here
这可能会在下周发生 this could happen next week
但 but
我们想等着看它发生，而不是预测它 we want to wait to see it happen and not anticipate it
这是关键 that's the key
所以我现在不会讲股票 so again I'm not going to go over stocks right now
我还没做过股票方面的工作 I haven't even done my stock work
所以我还是要做这个，然后再做其他事情 so I still have to do that and do something later
今晚，然后明天 on tonight and then tomorrow
我们会列出生化机名单，然后再谈 we'll put out a bioler list and we'll talk
在问答环节中 during the q amp a session
好了，今晚好好休息 all right so have a good rest of the night and
明天见，再见 see you guys tomorrow bye bye