(THEME MUSIC PLAYING)
NEWS PRESENTER: Columbians went to the polls today,
for what could be a historic moment of change for the country
As the second-round votes are counted,
there are rumours and speculation in the capitol,
that this could be the end
of an eight-year reign for the political party
and incumbent President.
Columbian Presidents are elected for four year terms,
using a two-round system.
Well this voting year as a new candidate
received a majority of the vote in the first round.
(CELL PHONE RINGING) A run off has been held,
between the top two candidates.
Hugo, you're concerned.
HUGO: No, not concerned. Curious.
It'll drop. Let the others panic.
HUGO: If it drops any further, it's going to be our money.
The election results will start coming in, in about three hours.
If it still hasn't changed then you can be concerned.
HUGO: I hope you're right. I am.
HUGO: Okay. You're the genius. Goodnight professor.
Hi. I'm staring at the most ridiculous picture of myself.
ALEX: We'll put it up in the bathroom.
No, we will not.
No-one should ever see their face this big. Ever.
How's it going down there?
GABBY: It's okay, I think.
I'm almost home. I'm leaving soon.
Okay. Love you. Love you.
See you soon. Bye.
Columbian officials have announced
that the incumbent president has maintained power
in the most tightly fought political contest
the country has ever seen.
This unexpected result defied early poll predictions
and sent shockwaves through the country.
Agricultural policies will no longer change,
affecting millions of people in rural areas
who were expecting ownership and economy
to be placed back in the hands of local farmers...
GABBY: Hi! ALEX: In here.
(ALEX CHUCKLES)
Hi. Hmm? Thank you.
I've wanted this book for such a long time.
I didn't get you this book.
What?
Nope. You must have dropped hints to somebody else.
Not me.
Who do you think it's from?
Erm...
I don't know. There was no name.
There's no note. Erm...
This book is so fascinating. It's Darwin's third book.
He would use galvanism to induce an emotional reaction
from his subjects. It's amazing.
Oh! Okay. That's hideous.
Can you put it away while we eat please?
Erm. Yeah. Sorry.
(DIAL TONE RINGING)
Hugo.
HUGO: Fine. Shouldn't have doubted you.
What?
HUGO: What? You're not checking the figures?
You were right about Columbia.
Thank you for the book.
HUGO: What book?
ALEX: The first edition Darwin.
I know Gabby didn't buy it.
And no-one else knows I'd be interested in it, so...
HUGO: First edition? Absolutely not.
I would never spend that much money on you.
Seriously? You didn't buy it?
HUGO: No. Probably a grateful client.
I've wanted this book for a long time.
HUGO: So, VIXAL knew about the election.
Speculated.
HUGO: Speculation could be worth ten million.
So, we go short on Vista Airways?
That's what it's telling us. Right.
I'll authorise it now. Bonsoir.
I'm going to go up.
Five minutes. Okay.
ALEX: "Fear. Terror.
"The word fear
"seems to be derived from what is sudden and dangerous.
"And that of terror from the trembling
"of the vocal organs and body.
"I use the word terror for extreme fear.
"But some writers think it ought to be confined to cases
"in which the imagination is more particularly concerned.
"The frightened man stands like a statue,
"motionless and breathless.
"Or crouches down as if instinctively
"to escape observation."
Evening. Oh, shit.
GABBY: That was a long five minutes.
ALEX: Sorry...
I got distracted.
So it's the right time of the month.
Oh, I know.
Do you want to? Yes, please.
Oi, you. Time to shut down.
You're not the only one with a big day tomorrow.
Sorry.
How are you feeling?
Erm, fucking terrified.
It's so exposing.
It is.
You're the bravest person I know.
I have a good feeling about tomorrow.
You're going to sell everything.
(SUSPENSEFUL MUSIC PLAYING)
(LOUD THUD)
(BEEPING)
(DIAL TONE RINGING)
Police, please.
I might have an intruder in my house.
My name is Alexander Hoffman,
an alarm should have been triggered.
No.
Well, could you send somebody quickly please?
Yes. Thank you.
(SUSPENSEFUL MUSIC PLAYING)
Gabby! Lock the door!
There's someone in the house!
Gabby!
GABBY: Alex? Alex?
PARAMEDIC: Dr. Hoffman, can you hear me?
My love. Alex? Alex?
Dr. Hoffman. Are you all right?
(GROANING)
GABBY: Oh, my God! You're really bleeding my love.
Dr. Hoffman. I am Jean-Phillipe Leclerc.
Do you feel able to answer some questions?
How long was I unconscious?
PARAMEDICS: Maybe 25 minutes.
We found these in the kitchen, next to the knives.
Do they belong to either of you?
What the fuck? No I have never seen them before.
It's possible that the intruder was planning a kidnapping
rather than a robbery.
Oh, my God.
Are you okay? I'm okay.
He didn't hurt you? He didn't touch me.
Do you know if anyone has a grudge against you?
If anyone may have wanted to extort money from you?
No. No.
He disabled the alarms, so how did he get in?
What? Through the front gate.
Did anyone, apart from you know the codes here?
Maurice. Maurice Genoud, yeah.
Maurice, Maurice Genoud? GABBY: Oui.
He's the head of security for my company.
GABBY: And for the house. Yeah.
He took his shoes off.
GABBY: What? Why would he do that?
His shoes. What shoes?
He left his boots by the front door.
That's how I knew someone was in the house.
Sir. Do you remember what he looked like?
It's very important we show a description of this man
as soon as possible.
LECLERC: Dr. Hoffman?
ALEX: I'm all right.
GABBY: Oh, my God. Careful. Careful.
ALEX: I'm all right. I'm all right.
Just leave me alone. I'm okay!
Just give me a second.
It's in here.
Someone sent me this book anonymously yesterday.
That's him, that's the man I saw.
You know that this photograph is more than a hundred years old?
Obviously, I'm aware of that. Fuck!
But that's him. He looked like that.
Long hair, gaunt face.
(GABBY SPEAKING FRENCH)
(LECLERC SPEAKING FRENCH)
(GABBY SPEAKING FRENCH)
(LECLERC SPEAKING FRENCH)
Forty-two million Euro.
Yeah, it's a good price.
Because I grew up in Geneva, you know, and now,
I can't afford that because
I'm living outside and driving to work.
(PARAMEDIC SPEAKING FRENCH)
GABBY: Come on, let's go.
Just get off me please.
(RADIO CHATTER)
Merci, Inspector.
LECLERC: Bon courage.
(MARIE SPEAKING)
(LECLERC SPEAKING)
(MARIE SPEAKING)
GABBY: Alex, you have to take it easy.
Who are you calling?
Hugo.
He needs to know what happened.
I really don't think he needs to come to the hospital, though.
HUGO: Alex? It's 5am.
We had a break in at the house.
What? Yeah. We're all fine.
I just got a knock to the head, so, we're in an ambulance.
Which hospital?
University. I'll be there.
(LECLERC SPEAKING)
MARIE: Ah oui, d'accord.
(LECLERC SPEAKING)
Gabby?
A genuine patient? Oui.
This is my husband, Alex.
This is Fabian Tallon, the duty technician.
Do you remember I told you about him?
He helped me with the scans for the exhibition. Remember?
Yeah, I remember.
Thank you for everything you've done for my wife.
Oh, it's been a pleasure.
Now Alex, let's see what we can do for you.
Alex?
What?
I'm sorry, what did you say?
Can you stand up for me please?
Of course.
TALLON: It won't take long.
It's going to be okay.
ALEX: I hate these things.
TALLON: Have you missed our conversations?
GABBY: Yes, I have.
(MACHINE WHIRRING)
Alex? Alex, can you hear me?
Can you hear me? Yeah.
Okay. I need you to keep as still as possible.
(MACHINE WHIRRING)
TALLON: Alex, stop moving. Head back up, please.
(SHUDDERING)
(ALARM BLARING)
Please get me out now! Okay. Okay.
TALLON: Forget this.
DR. DUFONT: No evidence of fracture and no swelling
which is the most important thing.
But you see these tiny haemorrhages in the brain tissue
GABBY: Serious? Not necessarily.
But I'd like to do an MRI.
Get a clearer image of the soft tissue.
Tell us whether or not it's related to the attack
or is a pre-existing condition.
How long will that take?
It depends when the scanner's available.
We might be able to use it around noon.
As long as there's no emergency.
GABBY: Sorry, is this not an emergency?
There's no immediate danger. No.
Then I'd like to be discharged. GABBY: No, no, no.
You are having this scan.
DR. DUFONT: Monsieur.
Anyone who's been knocked unconscious
as you have
should be kept under observation for 24 hours.
You just said there was no emergency,
so, there's no immediate danger. Correct?
My advice would be
to take this to your doctor as soon as possible. Okay.
Sorry. But, why? Is there a tumour or something?
I can't say for sure.
That's why you need an MRI. To rule out a few things.
Like what?
Dementia, MS? What?
You are having a scan and you are not going to the office.
I will have the scan. But tomorrow.
You have to get to the gallery.
You've been working on this exhibition for months.
Okay. Look at me, I'm fine.
You've seen the scan, there's no swelling,
there's no fracture.
And no bloody common sense. That wound must be stitched.
And you need to sign a form releasing the hospital
from all responsibility if you decide to leave.
Fine.
HUGO: Well then, professor, let's get you stitched up.
We don't want that brain falling out now, do we?
Thank you, Doctor.
(INDISTINCT CHATTERING)
Hugo, please.
They said he needs to be observed for at least 24 hours.
Gabby, I wouldn't dream of telling Alex what to do.
If he wants to go to the office I couldn't stop him if I tried.
This pitch is worth a hell of a lot.
You could always do it.
Oh, no you can't,
cos you're just good at counting all the cash he makes you.
(KNOCKING)
DR. DUFONT: Dr. Hoffman, are you all right?
Just a minute.
Your CT scan results.
Take it from me,
it is always the unknown that is most frightening.
See your doctor, Monsieur.
GABBY: I know when you're not fine.
My love, I really think your health
is more important than a pitch.
Don't worry, I'll look after him.
GABBY: Alex, what's wrong?
Nothing.
I think the anaesthetic is just wearing off.
It stings a little.
Turn the radio up will you, Claude.
(CAR STEREO VOLUME INCREASES)
(OPERA PLAYING)
LECLERC: Bonjour.
Bonjour. May I help you?
Yeah. Inspector Jean-Phillipe Leclerc.
I am leading the investigation into Dr. Hoffman's attack.
Any progress? Yeah. Working on it.
Try not to worry.
We're quite busy today,
so I'll make sure Dr. Hoffman calls you as soon as possible.
I'll see you in a couple of hours.
You look after yourself, okay?
Can I give you my card?
Oui. Yeah.
Thank you.
Now this little group of investors we've put together
could buy out all our other investors five times over.
RECEPTIONIST: Good morning, gentlemen.
Morning, Claire. Claire.
I need to go find Genoud.
All in good time, Alex.
We can't afford to assume we've already got their investments.
Let's not be complacent.
I'm not complacent, I'm confident.
And, Hugo. I'm serious.
I'll be at Gabby's opening.
Till then, do your worst.
HUGO: Now let me talk you through who's coming.
Eight investors, all existing clients.
Four institutions and two family offices.
Now they're due in an hour-and-a-half, right?
So, I'll introduce you.
You walk them through the basic principles
in a language they'll understand please, professor.
And after that we'll show them the hardware
and I'll make the pitch.
And last but not least,
we'll take them out to lunch at the Beau Valais.
By which point I'd like us all to be five billion better off.
But I'll settle for four point five.
Commission of two and twenty, all right?
Ah! Monsieur Genoud! A word.
Best system money can buy.
That's what you said.
So, you're responsible for security, Genoud,
at the office and at our homes.
GENOUD: This building is as well protected as any in Geneva.
As for your home, the system wasn't breached.
The intruder must have known the codes.
I do the best I can, Dr. Hoffman,
but no security system in the world can protect against that.
HUGO: Yes, but, apart from Alex and Gabby,
the only other person who knew those codes was you.
GENOUD: None of my staff have access to those codes.
And if they did
they wouldn't be able to decipher them
because they are encrypted. No leak came from me.
I guess we'll just have to take your word for that, won't we?
HUGO: All right, until this man is caught
the priority is arranging proper protection for Alex, yes?
A permanent guard is already at the house.
When Dr. Hoffman leaves this building for his home.
I would suggest he is covered by a security guard
with counter-terrorism training.
Counter-terrorism?
Yes, if you or Gabby were kidnapped,
you'd command a pretty high ransom,
so I say let's do whatever it takes to protect you.
All right. But I want Gabby to have whatever I have.
She's worth more than me.
That's all for now, thank you.
Dr. Hoffman, I know Leclerc,
the detective leading this investigation.
Okay.
May I ask, have you told him everything?
Of course.
Absolutely everything?
Yes. What are you implying?
That's enough now, Maurice.
What the hell's he talking about?
Look, I need you to start focusing.
Do you trust him?
If he wanted to do something to you or Gabby,
if he wanted to steal from you, he would have done it already.
And he would have been very good at it.
(SIGHS)
I could do without the lunch.
We've waited a year for this.
Remember the end game.
Yep.
(CLEARS THROAT)
Now maybe take a shower and comb your hair.
They want brilliant and eccentric,
but not completely mad.
Jesus!
I did knock.
I just wanted to know if you'd like anything done before I go.
Oh.
You keep a record of...
the security codes for my house, don't you?
Yes, Dr. Hoffman.
Where do you keep them? On my computer,
but I can't open the file. Only you can do that.
Does anyone else have access to that computer?
Certainly not. Not even your husband?
My husband died last year.
Yes...
I'm sorry. I...
Someone broke into the house last night
and they... The police say the intruder had the codes... I'm...
I'm sorry. That's okay.
If you'd like anything else, let me know.
ALEX: Okay.
Fuck!
BOOKSELLER: Goede morgen . Rosengaarden.
Goede morgen. Do you speak English?
Yes, how can I help you?
I believe you sent me a book.
My name is Alexander Hoffman, I live in Geneva.
BOOKSELLER: Dr. Hoffman! Of course, I remember,
it was a Darwin first edition. A beautiful book.
Is something wrong? A problem with the delivery or--
No. I received it. I just,
it didn't come with a note and I want to thank
whoever bought it for me.
Could you provide that information?
BOOKSELLER: But, you bought it, Dr. Hoffman.
No, that's...
no, I didn't buy the book.
BOOKSELLER: Dr. Hoffman, I have the order form in front of me.
You bought the book.
I assure you I did not.
BOOKSELLER: Is there any way you could have confused
this purchase with another item?
No, no, no. I...
can you tell me how I paid for the book?
BOOKSELLER: A bank transfer.
How much?
BOOKSELLER: Ten thousand Euros.
Okay. Who did I speak to when I bought the book?
BOOKSELLER: You ordered by email.
When? May 3rd.
No, I'm looking at my emails now
and I don't see an email to you.
BOOKSELLER: Perhaps you have another computer?
Could you have sent it from home?
No.
Are you still there, Dr. Hoffman?
Yes.
Yes. Do you have an account number for that transaction?
I'm sorry, but I can't disclose that information.
Why not, it's my account, isn't it?
I cannot give that information over the phone.
But I could send it to the email address given on the order.
Great. Could you please do that?
Thank you. I'll send the email. Goodbye.
DR. DUFONT: The tiny haemorrhages in the brain tissue.
I'd like to do an MRI...
My advice would be to take this
to your doctor as soon as possible.
Take it from me,
it is always the unknown that is most frightening.
See your doctor, monsieur.
(INDISTINCT CHATTERING)
If they want to go for eight, that's fine.
I'll call you back. Lin.
I need you to check an account number for me.
Looks like a Cayman Island's US dollar account.
Is it a company account?
Forward it to me and I'll run it through the system.
What's this got to do with?
I just need to know who's it is. And keep it to yourself. Okay?
All right. Alex, has Marieme spoken to you?
No. Why?
You authorised a big short on Vista Airways last night.
It's in direct opposition to the trend and Marieme's worried,
wants to call a risk committee meeting.
She's saying our risk limit's been breached.
Tell her to talk to Hugo, okay?
Okay.
(SIGHS)
MARIE-CLAUDE: Dr. Hoffman.
They're waiting for you in the boardroom.
What time is it? Almost eleven.
Are you all right?
Just tell Hugo I'll be a few minutes, okay?
MARIE-CLAUDE: Okay.
I need a word, now.
Marieme, it'll have to wait till after the presentation.
It's urgent. Not now.
You authorised a short on Vista Airways!
Listen, not now! Okay?
Here he is at last,
the president of Hoffman Investment Technologies.
Well, as I was saying,
it's been nearly eight years
since Alex and I first set up shop.
And in that time, you've all seen your net worth increase
by eighty-three percent.
So, you already know that bringing your money to us
was the smart thing to do.
About 18 months ago,
Alex and his team made a technological breakthrough,
for want of better words.
As a result, we had to hard-close the fund.
Some of you were very disappointed.
But we had to do it
because we had to be absolutely sure
that increasing the size of our fund
would not decrease our performance.
Well, it pleases me greatly to tell you that VIXAL-4
is now robust enough to support portfolio expansion
from our most important existing clients.
Now I'd like to hand you over to Doctor Alex Hoffman.
Around 350 BC,
Aristotle defined human beings
as "the animal that has language."
Language, above all, is what differentiates us
from the other creatures on the planet.
The development of language freed us from
a world of physical objects
and substituted a universe of symbols.
For over 50,000 years
only humans were "the animal with language."
But now, for the very first time that is no longer the case.
We share our world with computers.
Everywhere we go, we leave a digital trail.
All that data can be read and analysed.
But here's the thing.
We still read at the same rate as Aristotle did.
The average American college student
only reads 450 words a minute.
A computer can perform trillions of calculations every second.
There's a physical limit to how much we can, as a species,
process and absorb.
But there's no such limit for computers,
as long as we give them enough processing power and memory.
And on top of that, algorithms don't have imagination.
They don't give in to panic, unlike humans.
So, that makes them ideally suited to trading,
in the financial markets.
With our new generation of VIXAL,
we were able to isolate, measure
and factor in to our market calculations,
the element of price that derives entirely
from human behaviour.
We built an algorithm that can adapt
its strategy and that's what gives it a competitive edge.
So basically, this is just behavioural finance?
You're going to analyse every aspect of human behaviour in the markets.
That would be impossible, as you well know.
No.
The solution was to choose
one emotion for which we have substantive data.
Which is? Fear.
Fear is historically the strongest emotion, in economics.
Remember FDR during the Great Depression?
The most famous financial quote of all time.
"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
In fact, fear is probably the strongest human emotion, period.
No one wakes up at four in the morning
because they're happy, do they?
Children leave the light on because they fear the dark.
We put our money in a safe
because we fear it being stolen.
We act on fear.
With VIXAL, we are able to correlate
recent market fluctuations with the frequency
of fear-related words in the media
and the conclusion we've drawn
is that fear is driving the world like never before.
The success we've had at this firm speaks for itself.
The market has endured two years of panic
which has made our algorithm thrive,
because humans act
in very predictable ways when they're frightened.
And we've only gone and found a way to make money out of it.
(CHUCKLING)
So, without further ado, shall we make our way downstairs?
All good? Yeah.
So, as most of you will be aware,
the Chicago Board of Exchange operates what's known
as the S&P 500 Volatility index, or VIX.
It's essentially a ticker,
tracking the price of options on stocks
traded in the S&P 500
and it shows the implied
volatility of the market in the coming month.
The higher the index, the greater the uncertainty,
which is why traders call it "the fear index."
So, the VIX was our starting point.
Which gives us a mass of data going back to 1993
which we then pair with new behavioural indices
which we've compiled, and bring that all together
with existing methodology.
And we started with VIXAL-1
now we're up to our fourth iteration, VIXAL-4.
BILL: Is this thing operational?
VIXAL-4 took control of the entire fund a week ago.
And?
Well, as of last night, it was up about
seventy-nine point seven million.
I thought you said it had only been running a week?
Oh, I did, Bill. But that--
That means that on a ten-billion-dollar fund,
you're looking at a profit of four point one four billion a year.
Thereabouts.
HUGO: You can see why we've decided
it's time to bring in more investment.
We need to exploit the hell out of this thing
before anyone develops a clone strategy.
Perhaps now would be a good time to show you VIXAL-4 in action?
MARIE: Jean-Phillipe.
Oui.
(CONVERSING IN FRENCH)
Ah, bon?
(MARIE SPEAKING)