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When I was a student here in Oxford in the 1970s,
1970年代，当我在牛津大学上学时，

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the future of the world was bleak.
全世界的未来是暗淡无光的。

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The population explosion was unstoppable.
“人口爆炸”危机是无法阻止的。

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Global famine was inevitable.
全球饥荒也无法避免。

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A cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment
由化学物质引发的癌症蔓延下，

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was going to shorten our lives.
我们的寿命缩短了。

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The acid rain was falling on the forests.
酸雨侵蚀森林。

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The desert was advancing by a mile or two a year.
每年沙漠以1到2英里的速度扩张。

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The oil was running out,
我们也快用完了石油。

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and a nuclear winter would finish us off.
核冬天将终结我们人类。

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None of those things happened,
不过上面所说的其实都没有发生。

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(Laughter)
（笑声）

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and astonishingly, if you look at what actually happened in my lifetime,
令人惊奇的是，看看我有生之年到底发生了什么事，

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the average per-capita income
目前地球上，每个人的

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of the average person on the planet,
人均收入

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in real terms, adjusted for inflation,
以实质计算，经过通货膨胀的调整，

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has tripled.
已经增加了3倍。

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Lifespan is up by 30 percent in my lifetime.
我的寿命延长了30%。

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Child mortality is down by two-thirds.
幼儿死亡率下降了三分之二。

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Per-capita food production
人均食物生产

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is up by a third.
增加了三分之一。

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And all this at a time when the population has doubled.
所有这一切都发生在人口增加到两倍的时候。

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How did we achieve that, whether you think it's a good thing or not?
我们是如何做到的呢？你可曾想过这是好事或者是坏事？

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How did we achieve that?
我们到底怎样做到的呢？

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How did we become
人类是如何变成

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the only species
仅有的一个物种因人口众多

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that becomes more prosperous
反而变得更加

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as it becomes more populous?
繁荣昌盛？

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The size of the blob in this graph represents the size of the population,
这图表中有颜色线的粗细变化说明了人口的增长变化。

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and the level of the graph
图标水平坐标

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represents GDP per capita.
代表了人均国内生产总值。

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I think to answer that question
要回答上面的问题，

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you need to understand
各位得明白

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how human beings bring together their brains
人类是如何集思广益，

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and enable their ideas to combine and recombine,
使他们的思想相融合，再融合，

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to meet and, indeed, to mate.
彼此碰撞，甚至是相交配。

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In other words, you need to understand
换句话说，各位必须明白

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how ideas have sex.
思想是怎样交配的。

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I want you to imagine
大家来想象一下

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how we got from making objects like this
我们是怎样从制作这个物体手斧

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to making objects like this.
到制作了右边这个鼠标的东西。

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These are both real objects.
它们都是实物。

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One is an Acheulean hand axe from half a million years ago
一个是五十万年前直立人

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of the kind made by Homo erectus.
制作的阿舍利手斧。

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The other is obviously a computer mouse.
另一个明显是一个鼠标。

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They're both exactly the same size and shape to an uncanny degree.
两者完全一样的大小，真是不可思议的构造。

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I've tried to work out which is bigger,
我试着弄明白哪一个是比较大的，

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and it's almost impossible.
这基本上没什么区别。

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And that's because they're both designed to fit the human hand.
因为它们两者设计都是适用于人手。

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They're both technologies. In the end, their similarity is not that interesting.
两者都体现了科技。最后，他们的相似性不是很有趣。

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It just tells you they were both designed to fit the human hand.
这说明他们两者都适用于人手。

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The differences are what interest me,
让我感兴趣的是差异性。

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because the one on the left was made to a pretty unvarying design
因为大约1百万年--

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for about a million years --
从150万年前到

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from one-and-a-half million years ago to half a million years ago.
50万年前，左边的手斧基本没有做任何改变的设计。

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Homo erectus made the same tool
直立人为3万后代

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for 30,000 generations.
制造了这样的工具。

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Of course there were a few changes,
当然会稍有改变，

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but tools changed slower than skeletons in those days.
但在那时工具变化速度比骨骼进化要慢。

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There was no progress, no innovation.
所谓没有进步，没有创新。

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It's an extraordinary phenomenon, but it's true.
这是个特别的现象，但这是事实。

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Whereas the object on the right is obsolete after five years.
相反右边的鼠标五年后就会过时。

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And there's another difference too,
还有另一个区别是，

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which is the object on the left is made from one substance.
左边手斧是从一种物质制作出来的。

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The object on the right is made from
右边的鼠标是从

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a confection of different substances,
不同物质，

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from silicon and metal and plastic and so on.
从硅，金属到塑料等等制成的精美用品。

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And more than that, it's a confection of different ideas,
更重要的是，它是不同思想，

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the idea of plastic, the idea of a laser,
塑料的，激光的，

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the idea of transistors.
电晶体的碰撞想法后的创新。

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They've all been combined together in this technology.
所有思想相互结合的科技。

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And it's this combination,
这种结合

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this cumulative technology, that intrigues me,
和科技累积令我着迷。

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because I think it's the secret to understanding
我认为这其中的奥妙

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what's happening in the world.
可以了解这世界上要发生的事情。

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My body's an accumulation of ideas too:
我身体也是不同思想的聚焦，

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the idea of skin cells, the idea of brain cells, the idea of liver cells.
皮肤细胞的，脑细胞的，肝细胞的想法聚焦。

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They've come together.
它们协同作用。

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How does evolution do cumulative, combinatorial things?
进化是怎样累积和组合的呢？

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Well, it uses sexual reproduction.
通过有性生殖来进化的。

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In an asexual species, if you get two different mutations in different creatures,
在无形物种，如果用不同物种的不同突变，

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a green one and a red one,
一个绿的和一个红的，

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then one has to be better than the other.
那么一个要比另一个更能适应。

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One goes extinct for the other to survive.
1个会灭绝，另一个则生存下来。

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But if you have a sexual species,
但有性物种相交配，

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then it's possible for an individual
那么一个个体可以

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to inherit both mutations
从不同干系物种

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from different lineages.
两种突变。

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So what sex does is it enables the individual
所以性交配使得个体

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to draw upon
拥有

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the genetic innovations of the whole species.
整个物种的遗传基因。

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It's not confined to its own lineage.
不仅仅限于自己的支系。

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What's the process that's having the same effect
正如同性交配在生物进化上的作用一样，

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in cultural evolution
那么文化演变上起相同作用，

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as sex is having in biological evolution?
这种作用的过程是什么？

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And I think the answer is exchange,
我想答案是交换，

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the habit of exchanging one thing for another.
从一个物体交换另一个物体的习惯。

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It's a unique human feature.
这是人类独一无二的特点。

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No other animal does it.
其他的动物不这样。

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You can teach them in the laboratory to do a little bit of exchange --
我们可以教实验室的动物做一点点交换实验。

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and indeed there's reciprocity in other animals --
的确其他动物也有互惠关系。

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But the exchange of one object for another never happens.
但从一个物体到另一个物体的交换从没有发生过。

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As Adam Smith said, "No man ever saw a dog
正如亚当-斯密说过：“从没见过一条狗

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make a fair exchange of a bone with another dog."
与另一条狗公平交换骨头。”

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(Laughter)
（笑声）

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You can have culture without exchange.
没有交换的文化也存在。

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You can have, as it were, asexual culture.
换言之，无性文化。

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Chimpanzees, killer whales, these kinds of creatures, they have culture.
黑猩猩，逆戟鲸，像这些生物，它们都有自己的文化。

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They teach each other traditions
它们互相传授

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which are handed down from parent to offspring.
从父母到其子女幼儿流传下来的传统。

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In this case, chimpanzees teaching each other
在这种情况下，黑猩猩互相教

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how to crack nuts with rocks.
怎样用岩石砸碎坚果。

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But the difference is
但有所区别的是

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that these cultures never expand, never grow,
这些文化从来没有扩张，没有增强，

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never accumulate, never become combinatorial,
没有积累，也从来没有相结合过。

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and the reason is because
原因是因为

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there is no sex, as it were,
没有相交配文化，所谓，

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there is no exchange of ideas.
没有交换的思想文化。

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Chimpanzee troops have different cultures in different troops.
在不同的黑猩猩族群有不同的文化。

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There's no exchange of ideas between them.
在它们之间没有交换思想。

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And why does exchange raise living standards?
那么为什么交换会提高生活水准？

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Well, the answer came from David Ricardo in 1817.
正如1817年戴维-里卡多的答案。

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And here is a Stone Age version of his story,
尽管这是他的石器时代的版本故事，

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although he told it in terms of trade between countries.
但他用它来说明国家之间的贸易。

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Adam takes four hours to make a spear and three hours to make an axe.
亚当做一只矛用四小时，一个斧头用三个小时。

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Oz takes one hour to make a spear and two hours to make an axe.
奥兹做一只矛用一小时，一个斧头用两个小时。

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So Oz is better at both spears and axes than Adam.
所以奥兹比起亚当制造矛和斧头都要好。

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He doesn't need Adam.
他不需要亚当的帮忙。

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He can make his own spears and axes.
奥兹可以自己制造更多的矛和斧头。

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Well no, because if you think about it,
但不应该这样，假如你想想看，

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if Oz makes two spears and Adam make two axes,
如果奥兹制作2个矛，而亚当制作2个斧头，

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and then they trade,
然后他们交换做贸易，

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then they will each have saved an hour of work.
他们每一个都节约了1小时工时。

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And the more they do this, the more true it's going to be,
他们做得越熟练，这交换就越来越有意思。

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because the more they do this, the better Adam is going to get at making axes
因为做得越熟练，熟练工亚当更擅长做斧头，

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and the better Oz is going to get at making spears.
熟练工奥兹更擅长做矛。

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So the gains from trade are only going to grow.
这种贸易互惠变得更实质。

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And this is one of the beauties of exchange,
这是交换益处之一，

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is it actually creates the momentum
它实际上创造了

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for more specialization,
更加专业的契机，

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which creates the momentum for more exchange and so on.
也创造了更多交换等等类似的契机。

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Adam and Oz both saved an hour of time.
亚当和奥兹两者都节约了1小时工时。

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That is prosperity, the saving of time
节约时间

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in satisfying your needs.
来满足人们的需要，这就是成功。

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Ask yourself how long you would have to work
问问大家你们要工作多久，

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to provide for yourself
在晚上

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an hour of reading light this evening to read a book by.
才能点亮阅读灯1小时来读书。

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If you had to start from scratch, let's say you go out into the countryside.
如果你要从头开始，你到郊外去进行。

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You find a sheep. You kill it. You get the fat out of it.
你找到一只羊。你杀了它，得到羊脂肪。

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You render it down. You make a candle, etc. etc.
然后把羊脂肪熬成油，你制成了蜡烛，等等。

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How long is it going to take you? Quite a long time.
你要花费多久才能制成光？相当长的时间。

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How long do you actually have to work
如果按时下英国的平均工资计算，能有1小时的阅读灯光，

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to earn an hour of reading light
你到底要

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if you're on the average wage in Britain today?
工作多久呢？

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And the answer is about half a second.
答案是大约半秒钟。

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Back in 1950,
追溯到1950年，

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you would have had to work for eight seconds on the average wage
按平均工资算，你得工作8秒钟

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to acquire that much light.
得到1小时的光。

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And that's seven and a half seconds of prosperity that you've gained
你得多付出7秒半的工作时间。

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since 1950, as it were,
换言之，1950年以来，

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because that's seven and a half seconds in which you can do something else,
7秒半钟的时间，你可以做别的一些事。

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or you can acquire another good or service.
或者你可以换取别的产品或服务。

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And back in 1880,
再追溯到1880年，

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it would have been 15 minutes
平均工资算，人们要工作15分钟

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to earn that amount of light on the average wage.
才能挣得1小时的光。

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Back in 1800,
追溯到1800年，

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you'd have had to work six hours
你必须工作6小时，

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to earn a candle that could burn for an hour.
你才会有1个蜡烛，它能燃烧1小时。

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In other words, the average person on the average wage
换言之，在1800年，人均平均工资

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could not afford a candle in 1800.
负担不起1个蜡烛。

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Go back to this image of the axe and the mouse,
回到这幅手斧和鼠标的图片，

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and ask yourself: "Who made them and for who?"
大家曾问过自己：“谁制作了他们，为了谁制作的？”

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The stone axe was made by someone for himself.
某人为自己制作了石斧。

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It was self-sufficiency.
这是自备用的。

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We call that poverty these days.
我们称那些日子还很贫穷。

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But the object on the right
但是右边的鼠标

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was made for me by other people.
是其他人为了我而生产的。

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How many other people?
有多少人呢？

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Tens? Hundreds? Thousands?
十个？一百个？一千个？

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You know, I think it's probably millions.
我知道大概有数百万个。

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Because you've got to include the man who grew the coffee,
因为你得包括生产咖啡的人们，

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which was brewed for the man who was on the oil rig,
他们给那些在石油钻台工作的人们提供咖啡，

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who was drilling for oil, which was going to be made into the plastic, etc.
石油钻台人们提取石油，使之生产出塑料等等。

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They were all working for me,
这些人都为我工作，

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to make a mouse for me.
才生产出这鼠标。

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And that's the way society works.
这是社会运转的方式。

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That's what we've achieved as a species.
也是我们人类进步的方式。

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In the old days, if you were rich,
在过去的日子，假如你是个富人，

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you literally had people working for you.
你的确拥有很多人来伺候你。

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That's how you got to be rich; you employed them.
你变得如何富有；你就能雇佣很多人。

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Louis XIV had a lot of people working for him.
路易十四世拥有很多侍从。

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They made his silly outfits, like this,
他们制作路易十四愚蠢的服饰，就如这个。

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(Laughter)
（笑声）

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and they did his silly hairstyles, or whatever.
他们也做路易十四愚蠢的发型，或者类似的事。

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He had 498 people
每晚，路易十四有498侍从

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to prepare his dinner every night.
为他做宫廷御膳。

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But a modern tourist going around the palace of Versailles
但现代旅客在凡尔赛宫参观，

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and looking at Louis XIV's pictures,
看着路易十四的画，

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he has 498 people doing his dinner tonight too.
他晚上也可以享受498人为他做的晚餐。

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They're in bistros and cafes and restaurants
这些人遍布巴黎的酒馆，咖啡馆，餐馆

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and shops all over Paris,
和商店。

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and they're all ready to serve you at an hour's notice with an excellent meal
这些人随时服务于你，只要你提前1小时预约一顿丰盛的美餐，

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that's probably got higher quality
恐怕你享受的美餐要远远好于

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than Louis XIV even had.
路易斯十四的御膳。

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And that's what we've done, because we're all working for each other.
因为我们相互协同工作，我们才能做好。

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We're able to draw upon specialization and exchange
我们能够变得专业，并交换技能，

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to raise each other's living standards.
来提高每个人生活水准。

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Now, you do get other animals working for each other too.
现在，其他动物也彼此协同工作。

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Ants are a classic example; workers work for queens and queens work for workers.
蚂蚁就是个经典例子；工蚁为蚁后工作，反之亦然。

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But there's a big difference,
但是一个大区别是，

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which is that it only happens within the colony.
这种协同合作仅发生在一个蚁群里。

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There's no working for each other across the colonies.
在这蚁群之外就没有彼此的协同合作。

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And the reason for that is because there's a reproductive division of labor.
缘由是生殖的劳动分工。

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That is to say, they specialize with respect to reproduction.
也可以说，它们分工取决于繁殖力。

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The queen does it all.
蚁后全权负责繁殖。

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In our species, we don't like doing that.
在我们人类物种，我们不可以像那样做。

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It's the one thing we insist on doing for ourselves, is reproduction.
我们坚持一定要自己做的一件事就是繁殖。

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(Laughter)
（笑声）

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Even in England, we don't leave reproduction to the Queen.
甚至在英国，我们不会让女王带我们去生殖繁衍后代。

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(Applause)
（掌声）

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So when did this habit start?
这个习惯何时形成的？

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And how long has it been going on? And what does it mean?
要多久能形成？这有什么意义？

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Well, I think, probably, the oldest version of this
我认为，这最古老的人类版本

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is probably the sexual division of labor.
可能是性别分工。

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But I've got no evidence for that.
但我还没有例证加以说明。

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It just looks like the first thing we did
这就好比我们起初的那样，

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was work male for female and female for male.
男人为女人而工作，女人为男人而劳作。

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In all hunter-gatherer societies today,
在当代所有狩猎采集社会，

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there's a foraging division of labor
整体上看，在狩猎男性和采集女性之间

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between, on the whole, hunting males and gathering females.
是以觅食分工。

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It isn't always quite that simple,
这种觅食分工也是很复杂的。

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but there's a distinction between
在男女之间的专业分工角色

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specialized roles for males and females.
是有区别的。

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And the beauty of this system
这分工体系的妙处

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is that it benefits both sides.
是它有利于男女两者。

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The woman knows
在哈扎人(Hadzas坦桑尼亚原住民)的这个案例，

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that, in the Hadzas' case here --
女人知道

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digging roots to share with men in exchange for meat --
挖根茎，并与男人交换肉类，

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she knows that all she has to do to get access to protein
她知道要想得到脂肪

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is to dig some extra roots and trade them for meat.
就要去挖更多的根茎，并与男人交换后得到肉。

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And she doesn't have to go on an exhausting hunt
女人不需要参与一次耗力的狩猎，

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00:09:48,820 --> 00:09:50,820
and try and kill a warthog.
去尝试猎杀一头疣猪。

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And the man knows that he doesn't have to do any digging
男人知道他用不着挖根茎

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to get roots.
来得到想要的。

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All he has to do is make sure that when he kills a warthog
他要做的就是猎杀到一头

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it's big enough to share some.
足够大的疣猪，并用来分享。

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00:09:58,820 --> 00:10:01,820
And so both sides raise each other's standards of living
男女双方通过性别分工

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00:10:01,820 --> 00:10:03,820
through the sexual division of labor.
相互提高生活水准。

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When did this happen? We don't know, but it's possible
这何时发生的呢？我们不得而知，但是

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00:10:06,820 --> 00:10:08,820
that Neanderthals didn't do this.
尼安德特人可能没有这样做。

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00:10:08,820 --> 00:10:10,820
They were a highly cooperative species.
他们是高度合作的物种。

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They were a highly intelligent species.
他们是高智商的物种。

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Their brains on average, by the end, were bigger than yours and mine
说到底，平均他们的大脑比今天

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in this room today.
在座各位的和我的大脑要大得多。

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They were imaginative. They buried their dead.
他们富有想像力。他们掩埋他们中的死者。

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00:10:18,820 --> 00:10:20,820
They had language, probably,
他们可能用语言交流，

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because we know they had the FOXP2 gene of the same kind as us,
因为我们所知他们有和我们人类一样的FOXP2基因，

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00:10:22,820 --> 00:10:24,820
which was discovered here in Oxford.
这是在牛津大学研究发现的。

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00:10:24,820 --> 00:10:27,820
And so it looks like they probably had linguistic skills.
尼安德特人可能有语言技能。

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They were brilliant people. I'm not dissing the Neanderthals.
他们是很聪明的人。我不是说尼安德特人的不好。

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But there's no evidence
但是没有证据显示

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00:10:33,820 --> 00:10:35,820
of a sexual division of labor.
他们有性别分工。

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00:10:35,820 --> 00:10:38,820
There's no evidence of gathering behavior by females.
没有女性的采集行为，

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It looks like the females were cooperative hunters with the men.
这就好比女性和男性一起协同狩猎。

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And the other thing there's no evidence for
另一件事是没有证据显示

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00:10:44,820 --> 00:10:46,820
is exchange between groups,
在不同族群之间的交换。

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because the objects that you find in Neanderthal remains,
因为你在尼安德特人遗址发现的那些物件，

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00:10:50,820 --> 00:10:52,820
the tools they made,
他们制造的工具，

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00:10:52,820 --> 00:10:54,820
are always made from local materials.
多数是当地材料制成的。

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00:10:54,820 --> 00:10:56,820
For example, in the Caucasus
例如，在高加索遗址，

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there's a site where you find local Neanderthal tools.
你可以发现当地尼安德特人制造的工具。

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They're always made from local chert.
它们都是当地黑燧石制成的。

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00:11:01,820 --> 00:11:03,820
In the same valley there are modern human remains
在这同样的山谷，大约在3万年前同一日期，

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from about the same date, 30,000 years ago,
那有现代人类遗址。

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00:11:05,820 --> 00:11:07,820
and some of those are from local chert,
现代人的一些燧石是当地制成的，

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00:11:07,820 --> 00:11:09,820
but more -- but many of them are made
但更多，多数是

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00:11:09,820 --> 00:11:11,820
from obsidian from a long way away.
从很远的地方的黑曜石制成的。

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00:11:11,820 --> 00:11:13,820
And when human beings began
当人们开始

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00:11:13,820 --> 00:11:15,820
moving objects around like this,
移动像这个类似的东西时，

280
00:11:15,820 --> 00:11:18,820
it was evidence that they were exchanging between groups.
这就证明他们开始在不同族群交换东西。

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00:11:18,820 --> 00:11:21,820
Trade is 10 times as old as farming.
交换贸易比农业有10倍多长远历史。

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People forget that. People think of trade as a modern thing.
人们忘了这个。人们认为贸易是现代产物。

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00:11:24,820 --> 00:11:26,820
Exchange between groups has been going on
不同族群交换已经延伸

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00:11:26,820 --> 00:11:29,820
for a hundred thousand years.
了十万年之久。

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00:11:29,820 --> 00:11:31,820
And the earliest evidence for it crops up
早期证明贸易开始于

286
00:11:31,820 --> 00:11:34,820
somewhere between 80 and 120,000 years ago in Africa,
8万年到12万年以前的非洲某地，

287
00:11:34,820 --> 00:11:37,820
when you see obsidian and jasper and other things
你看到黑曜石和碧玉和其他东西

288
00:11:37,820 --> 00:11:40,820
moving long distances in Ethiopia.
是通过埃塞俄比亚的长距离交换贸易而来的。

289
00:11:40,820 --> 00:11:42,820
You also see seashells --
你也看到海贝，

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00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:44,820
as discovered by a team here in Oxford --
经牛津大学的团队证明，

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00:11:44,820 --> 00:11:46,820
moving 125 miles inland
这海贝沿地中海的阿尔及利亚

292
00:11:46,820 --> 00:11:49,820
from the Mediterranean in Algeria.
向内陆移动125英里。

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00:11:49,820 --> 00:11:51,820
And that's evidence that people
这就是人们开始在

294
00:11:51,820 --> 00:11:53,820
have started exchanging between groups.
不同族群交换的证明。

295
00:11:53,820 --> 00:11:55,820
And that will have led to specialization.
这将导致专业分工。

296
00:11:55,820 --> 00:11:57,820
How do you know that long-distance movement
为什么认为长距离移动是指贸易

297
00:11:57,820 --> 00:12:00,820
means trade rather than migration?
而不是指移民？

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00:12:00,820 --> 00:12:02,820
Well, you look at modern hunter gatherers like aboriginals,
你观察现代狩猎采集者像澳洲土著人，

299
00:12:02,820 --> 00:12:05,820
who quarried for stone axes at a place called Mount Isa,
他们在伊萨山区（位于澳洲东北）用石斧工作，

300
00:12:05,820 --> 00:12:08,820
which was a quarry owned by the Kalkadoon tribe.
那是Kalkadoon卡卡度部落拥有一个开采区。

301
00:12:08,820 --> 00:12:10,820
They traded them with their neighbors
他们与他们的邻居

302
00:12:10,820 --> 00:12:12,820
for things like stingray barbs,
交换类似魟刺的东西。

303
00:12:12,820 --> 00:12:14,820
and the consequence was that stone axes
结果是这配有魟刺的石斧在

304
00:12:14,820 --> 00:12:16,820
ended up over a large part of Australia.
澳大利亚的大部分地区都能见到。

305
00:12:16,820 --> 00:12:18,820
So long-distance movement of tools
所以长距离移动的工具

306
00:12:18,820 --> 00:12:21,820
is a sign of trade, not migration.
是贸易的标志，而不是移民。

307
00:12:21,820 --> 00:12:24,820
What happens when you cut people off from exchange,
当你切断人们之间交换，阻止人们交换和专业分工能力，

308
00:12:24,820 --> 00:12:27,820
from the ability to exchange and specialize?
会发生什么呢？

309
00:12:27,820 --> 00:12:29,820
And the answer is that
结论是

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00:12:29,820 --> 00:12:31,820
not only do you slow down technological progress,
你不仅仅延缓科技进步，

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00:12:31,820 --> 00:12:34,820
you can actually throw it into reverse.
实际上使科技退步。

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00:12:34,820 --> 00:12:36,820
An example is Tasmania.
塔斯马尼亚岛就是个例子。

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00:12:36,820 --> 00:12:39,820
When the sea level rose and Tasmania became an island 10,000 years ago,
1万年前，当海平面上升，塔斯马尼亚岛变成个孤岛，

314
00:12:39,820 --> 00:12:41,820
the people on it not only experienced
在那的人们比起澳大利亚的人们经历了

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00:12:41,820 --> 00:12:44,820
slower progress than people on the mainland,
更慢的进步，

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00:12:44,820 --> 00:12:46,820
they actually experienced regress.
他们实际上在倒退。

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00:12:46,820 --> 00:12:48,820
They gave up the ability to make stone tools
他们放弃了生产骨制品，

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00:12:48,820 --> 00:12:50,820
and fishing equipment and clothing
钓鱼工具和制衣技能，

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00:12:50,820 --> 00:12:53,820
because the population of about 4,000 people
缘于四千人口

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00:12:53,820 --> 00:12:55,820
was simply not large enough
不是足够庞大

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00:12:55,820 --> 00:12:57,820
to maintain the specialized skills
到需要专业分工技能，

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00:12:57,820 --> 00:13:00,820
necessary to keep the technology they had.
才能维护他们拥有的科技。

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00:13:00,820 --> 00:13:02,820
It's as if the people in this room were plonked on a desert island.
这就好比今天在座的人们被空投到一个荒岛。

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00:13:02,820 --> 00:13:04,820
How many of the things in our pockets
在1万年后，我们口袋中有多少物品

325
00:13:04,820 --> 00:13:07,820
could we continue to make after 10,000 years?
会继续使用生产？

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00:13:08,820 --> 00:13:10,820
It didn't happen in Tierra del Fuego --
在火地岛（智力和阿根廷分而治之的岛屿），同样的岛屿，同样的人们

327
00:13:10,820 --> 00:13:12,820
similar island, similar people.
身上却不会发生这种事。

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00:13:12,820 --> 00:13:14,820
The reason: because Tierra del Fuego
因为火地岛与

329
00:13:14,820 --> 00:13:17,820
is separated from South America by a much narrower straight,
南美洲大陆仅隔一个非常狭窄的海峡。（麦哲伦海峡）

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00:13:17,820 --> 00:13:19,820
and there was trading contact across that straight
整个一万年来，贯穿海峡有往来

331
00:13:19,820 --> 00:13:21,820
throughout 10,000 years.
贸易合同。

332
00:13:21,820 --> 00:13:24,820
The Tasmanians were isolated.
而塔斯马尼亚岛却是隔绝的。

333
00:13:24,820 --> 00:13:26,820
Go back to this image again
再回到这幅图片

334
00:13:26,820 --> 00:13:29,820
and ask yourself, not only who made it and for who,
不仅仅试问，谁制造了它，为谁造的，

335
00:13:29,820 --> 00:13:32,820
but who knew how to make it.
也要知道是谁怎样生产出来的。

336
00:13:32,820 --> 00:13:35,820
In the case of the stone axe, the man who made it knew how to make it.
石斧的例子，人们生产它出来就知道怎样制作的。

337
00:13:35,820 --> 00:13:38,820
But who knows how to make a computer mouse?
但是谁知道怎样生产出鼠标吗？

338
00:13:38,820 --> 00:13:41,820
Nobody, literally nobody.
没人，没人完全知道。

339
00:13:41,820 --> 00:13:44,820
There is nobody on the planet who knows how to make a computer mouse.
地球上没人知道怎样生产出鼠标。

340
00:13:44,820 --> 00:13:46,820
I mean this quite seriously.
我真的很严肃。

341
00:13:46,820 --> 00:13:48,820
The president of the computer mouse company doesn't know.
鼠标公司的总裁不知道。

342
00:13:48,820 --> 00:13:51,820
He just knows how to run a company.
他仅知道怎样运作一个公司。

343
00:13:51,820 --> 00:13:53,820
The person on the assembly line doesn't know
安装线上工人也不知道，

344
00:13:53,820 --> 00:13:55,820
because he doesn't know how to drill an oil well
缘于他不知道怎样钻探油井，

345
00:13:55,820 --> 00:13:58,820
to get oil out to make plastic, and so on.
通过提炼石油生产出塑料等等。

346
00:13:58,820 --> 00:14:01,820
We all know little bits, but none of us knows the whole.
我们所有人只知道一点点，没有谁能全部知晓。

347
00:14:01,820 --> 00:14:03,820
I am of course quoting from a famous essay
的确我要引用1950年代的经济学家，

348
00:14:03,820 --> 00:14:06,820
by Leonard Read, the economist in the 1950s,
伦纳德·里德Leonard Read的著名作品里的话，

349
00:14:06,820 --> 00:14:08,820
called "I, Pencil"
“我，铅笔”（I, Pencil）。

350
00:14:08,820 --> 00:14:11,820
in which he wrote about how a pencil came to be made,
他写道铅笔是怎样被制做的，

351
00:14:11,820 --> 00:14:14,820
and how nobody knows even how to make a pencil,
竟然没人知道铅笔怎样被制成的，

352
00:14:14,820 --> 00:14:17,820
because the people who assemble it don't know how to mine graphite,
缘于人们生产铅笔，却不知道怎样开采石墨。

353
00:14:17,820 --> 00:14:20,820
and they don't know how to fell trees and that kind of thing.
人们也不知道怎样砍伐树木等等类似的事情。

354
00:14:20,820 --> 00:14:22,820
And what we've done in human society,
人类社会通过交换和专业分工，我们

355
00:14:22,820 --> 00:14:24,820
through exchange and specialization,
做过的事

356
00:14:24,820 --> 00:14:26,820
is we've created
使我们有创新

357
00:14:26,820 --> 00:14:29,820
the ability to do things that we don't even understand.
能力去做我们完全不理解的事情。

358
00:14:29,820 --> 00:14:31,820
It's not the same with language.
这不等同于语言。

359
00:14:31,820 --> 00:14:33,820
With language we have to transfer ideas
我们用语言来传达思想，

360
00:14:33,820 --> 00:14:36,820
that we understand with each other.
然后我们彼此理解。

361
00:14:36,820 --> 00:14:38,820
But with technology,
但是用科技，

362
00:14:38,820 --> 00:14:40,820
we can actually do things that are beyond our capabilities.
我们的确可以用科技做超出我们能力的事情。

363
00:14:40,820 --> 00:14:43,820
We've gone beyond the capacity of the human mind
我们已经超越了人类能力的范围到了

364
00:14:43,820 --> 00:14:45,820
to an extraordinary degree.
一个非凡的程度。

365
00:14:45,820 --> 00:14:47,820
And by the way,
顺便说一下，

366
00:14:47,820 --> 00:14:50,820
that's one of the reasons that I'm not interested
我对其中一个原因关于智商的辩论

367
00:14:50,820 --> 00:14:52,820
in the debate about I.Q.,
不感兴趣，

368
00:14:52,820 --> 00:14:55,820
about whether some groups have higher I.Q.s than other groups.
这辩论是关于一族群的智商高于另一族群的智商。

369
00:14:55,820 --> 00:14:57,820
It's completely irrelevant.
它是完全不相干的。

370
00:14:57,820 --> 00:15:00,820
What's relevant to a society
与此社会相关的

371
00:15:00,820 --> 00:15:03,820
is how well people are communicating their ideas,
是人们怎样交流他们彼此的思想，

372
00:15:03,820 --> 00:15:05,820
and how well they're cooperating,
怎样互动合作得更好，

373
00:15:05,820 --> 00:15:07,820
not how clever the individuals are.
而不是独立个体怎样聪明。

374
00:15:07,820 --> 00:15:09,820
So we've created something called the collective brain.
所以我们创造了协同合作的大脑（collective brain）。

375
00:15:09,820 --> 00:15:11,820
We're just the nodes in the network.
我们只是这脑网络上的交点。

376
00:15:11,820 --> 00:15:14,820
We're the neurons in this brain.
我们就好比这个脑里的神经元。

377
00:15:14,820 --> 00:15:16,820
It's the interchange of ideas,
正是思想的交融，

378
00:15:16,820 --> 00:15:18,820
the meeting and mating of ideas between them,
人们之间思想碰撞和交配，

379
00:15:18,820 --> 00:15:21,820
that is causing technological progress,
导致技术正逐步，一点一滴地

380
00:15:21,820 --> 00:15:23,820
incrementally, bit by bit.
进步。

381
00:15:23,820 --> 00:15:25,820
However, bad things happen.
尽管如此，坏事情也会发生。

382
00:15:25,820 --> 00:15:28,820
And in the future, as we go forward,
在未来，随着我们社会进步，

383
00:15:28,820 --> 00:15:31,820
we will, of course, experience terrible things.
我们当然会遇到可怕的事情。

384
00:15:31,820 --> 00:15:33,820
There will be wars; there will be depressions;
例如战争， 经济萧条，

385
00:15:33,820 --> 00:15:35,820
there will be natural disasters.
自然灾难。

386
00:15:35,820 --> 00:15:38,820
Awful things will happen in this century, I'm absolutely sure.
我的确肯定本世纪会有糟糕的事情发生。

387
00:15:38,820 --> 00:15:41,820
But I'm also sure that, because of the connections people are making,
但是我也确信由于人们彼此的联系结合，

388
00:15:41,820 --> 00:15:43,820
and the ability of ideas
思想能力

389
00:15:43,820 --> 00:15:45,820
to meet and to mate
相碰撞和交配

390
00:15:45,820 --> 00:15:47,820
as never before,
都是前所未有的。

391
00:15:47,820 --> 00:15:49,820
I'm also sure
我也也确信

392
00:15:49,820 --> 00:15:51,820
that technology will advance,
科技会进步，

393
00:15:51,820 --> 00:15:53,820
and therefore living standards will advance.
从而改善人们生活水准。

394
00:15:53,820 --> 00:15:55,820
Because through the cloud,
因为通过云计算，

395
00:15:55,820 --> 00:15:57,820
through crowd sourcing,
通过外包集成采购服务，

396
00:15:57,820 --> 00:15:59,820
through the bottom-up world that we've created,
通过我们已经创建的自下而上世界，

397
00:15:59,820 --> 00:16:02,820
where not just the elites but everybody
在那里不仅仅是精英，而是每个人

398
00:16:02,820 --> 00:16:04,820
is able to have their ideas
都能有自己的想法，

399
00:16:04,820 --> 00:16:06,820
and make them meet and mate,
让彼此想法碰撞和交配，

400
00:16:06,820 --> 00:16:09,820
we are surely accelerating the rate of innovation.
我们一定会加快创新速度。

401
00:16:09,820 --> 00:16:11,820
Thank you.
谢谢大家。

402
00:16:11,820 --> 00:16:15,820
(Applause)
（掌声）