早上好，欢迎来到minervini私人交易大厅 Okay, good morning, and welcome to the minervini private access trading room
如果你能快速地解释一下你的手，让我知道你听得很清楚， on Bob Voiceman If you could do a quick reason of your hands, letting me know that you're hearing me loud and clear,
或者如果你只是想帮助庆祝老鹰队的三名球员和本赛季的首发，我感谢所有人的支持。 or if you just want to help celebrate the Eagles three and O start for the season, I appreciate all the support with that.
让我们欢迎Markrich的到来 And let's also welcome Mark rich into the room.
早上好 马克 早上好 鲍勃早上好 马克 Good morning, mark. Morning, bob morning, mark.
如果你能清楚地听到马克·里奇的声音 请举手 And just raise your hand if you can let us know that you're hearing Mark Richie loud and clear as well.
最后 让我们把话筒交给MarkManervini And finally, let's hand it off to Mark Manervini for to the session.
早 马克 好吧 祝大家周末愉快 Morning. Mark. Okay, I'll everyone had a good weekend.
早上好 下午好 嗯 所以我们正处于一个非常 我周末提到过 我们正处于一个非常危险的时期 Good morning. Good afternoon. Um. So we're in a very, may I say I mentioned over the weekend, we're in a very risky time here.
嗯 库存在不断增加 而库存在分配过程中已经崩溃 Um. Vaultilities picking up, and stocks have broken down under distribution.
所以没什么可做的 So there's not much to do.
我确实做了一些筛选 嗯 很少有股票可以看 I did do some screening, UM, and there's very few stocks to look at.
也许我们只需要回答问题 然后我可以在这里发布一些库存想法 So maybe we'll just get the questions, and then now I can post some of the stock ideas as they develop here.
但是 就像我说的 有 有很少的 尽管有很多库存在基础上 我们还没有完全的基础分解 有很多枢轴 呃 泄漏 如果你愿意的话 But, like I said, there's, there's very few, although there are a lot of stocks that are in bases, and that that we haven't had complete base breakdowns, there's been a lot of pivot, uh, leakage, if you will.
嗯 这意味着我们可以收紧 实际上 你知道 回到一个能够购买股票的位置 如果 嗯 你知道 如果这是一个市场 嗯 让我们一起行动 Um. And that means that we could tighten up and and actually be, you know, back, uh, into a position of being able to buy stocks if, um, you know, if it's a market, uh, gets us, it's act together here.
也许我们会得到投降 所以 我们不是 呃 你知道 在这种可怕的情况下 一切都分崩离析 Maybe we get a capitulation. So not, we're not, uh, you know, in this dire situation where everything's breaking apart.
我们现在的情况是 我们正在寻找这种分歧 并开始寻找这些领导者 We're in a situation where now we're looking for that divergence and to start looking for those leaders.
但看起来还是要多花点时间 But it still looks like it's going to take a bit more time.
因此 让我们开始拿一些刷子 看看你们在想什么 So with that, let's let's start taking some brush and see what you guys are thinking.
你说对了 John JohnlebartE提到了海豚也是三只 You got it. And John, john le bart E is uh, mentioning the dolphins also three.
不 我住在佛罗里达东南部 所以我在这里得到了两全其美的东西 No, I live in Southeast Florida, so I kind of getting the best of both worlds here.
站在为什么 站在海豚迷的立场上 And stand why, and stand as dolphins fans.
噢 是的 告诉过你们 是的 Oh yeah. Told you guys, yep.
我当时在鲍勃家 I was actually down at bob's house.
我和鲍勃住在一起上周在他的新家 Um, stayed with Bob, um last week at his new home.
还有 缓慢的站立 在南佛罗里达 And, um also, slow stand, winesting was in South Florida.
还有 我告诉过你们 我会告诉你们 我的谈话会持续下去 你们知道 他你们有些人可能读过这条推特 当我问他的时候 只是在开玩笑 Um also, more quick to I told you guys I would tell you know, my conversation would stand, you know, he um at Some of you might have read this tweet when I asked him, just asking him, kind of joking around.
我们现在处于什么阶段 So what stage are we in now?
他说 我们正处于糟糕的阶段 He said, we're in the shit stage.
所以 呃 所以 stand总是丰富多彩 有趣 有趣 So, uh, so, and stand is always colorful and funny and joking.
总之 我认为这是非常准确的 So anyway, but I think that's pretty accurate, actually.
但除此之外 你知道 他只是说 我们仍然处于熊市 超卖 而且必须 呃 你知道 在这一点上坚持裸市策略 But other than that, you know, he just said, we're still in the bear market, oversold, and have to just, uh, you know, stick with the bare market tactics at this point.
没有什么不同 和我们说的没有什么不同 戴夫问的是 在挣扎着开始约束自己之后 我把我的资金投入到货币市场基金中 它只能在之后 或者一天一次 Nothing, nothing different than what we're we're saying No Dave is asking about the Having struggled with set out power to discipline myself, I put my funds into a money market fund that is redeemable only after, or once a day.
他想问你对这种方法的看法 因为你发展了这门学科 He wants to ask your thoughts on this approach, for for having developed that discipline?
我不知道 我不确定这会发展纪律 嗯 我认为纪律意味着你不去做 即使你也有能力去做 你知道 纪律是做正确的事情 即使你可能不想做 或者你有 嗯 你有选择或机会去做错误的事情 但你没有 所以你需要去做 I don't know. I'm not sure that develops discipline, you know, um, I think that discipline means that you, you don't do it, even if you have the ability too, you know, discipline is doing the right thing, even though you may not want to, or you have there, um, you have the option or the opportunity to do something wrong, but you don't, so you need to.
我不确定你是否知道 把钱投进监狱是正确的做法 I'm not sure if you know, putting your money in prison is is the right thing to do.
我觉得 你懂的 遵守规则更重要 I think, um, you know, following rules are more important.
所以 你知道 我就会想出 你知道 你知道 某些规则 你只会 你知道 在某些情况下配置资金 So, you know, I-I would just come up with, you know, you know, certain rules that you are only going to, you know, deploy capital under certain circumstances.
我们给你这些规则 And we give you those rules.
这些规则是 你知道 如果你想要交易 你想要行动 好吧 用非常小的头寸 Those of the rules are is that, you know, look, if you want a trade and you want action, fine, do it with small, really small positions.
用微体位来做 这样 你知道的 你的手指就能摸到脉搏了 Do it with micropositions, just to, you know, have your, your, uh, your finger on the pulse.
然后 你 你知道 我不知道为什么有人会想做其他的事情 你知道吗 And then when, you, you know, I don't know why anybody would want to do anything other than that, you know?
我知道为什么 因为自我 希望和所有这些情绪 And I do know why, because ego and and and hope and all these other emotions.
但是 你知道 底线是 我的意思是 如果股票不起作用 我持续亏损 我想做的是增加它 损失更多的钱 But, you know, bottom line is, I mean, if certainly, if stocks aren't working and I'm losing money lasting, I want to do is ramp it up and lose more money.
所以 嗯 你知道 我想说的是小交易 你知道 然后得到行动 So, um, you know, what I would say is just trade small, you know, and and get that action.
但是 你知道 真正的尝试是自律与大的钱 But, you know, the real try to be disciplined with the with the big money.
这是最主要的 你知道 如果你要鲁莽 那就鲁莽地用那点钱 That's the main thing. You know, if you're gonna be reckless, be reckless with the small money.
你看 整件事的关键是不要犯大错 See, the key with this whole thing is not to make big mistakes.
你会犯很多错误 You're gonna make tons of mistakes.
但这就像高尔夫 你知道 你 你 你会在这里和那里得到一个柏忌 甚至可能是一个双柏忌 But it's just like golf, you know, you, you, you get a bogy here and there, and and maybe even a double bogy.
但是你要避免 你知道 一堆 你知道 几个柏忌 你当然要避免三倍 你知道 或者把它放在饮料里几次 But you're trying to avoid, you know, a bunch of, you know, several bogies and and you're certainly trying to avoid a triple, you know, or putting it in the drink a couple times.
这是为了避免大的错误 这才是真正的 你知道 搞砸你的游戏 高尔夫 搞砸你的投资组合 你的权益曲线和交易 杰瑞在问那个问权益曲线的人 So it's avoiding the big mistakes, that's what really, you know, messes up your game and golf and messes up your, you know, your your portfolio, your equity curve and trading, uh, jerry is asking on the guy asking about the equity curve.
到目前为止 上周我已经做了97笔交易 Last week, I've done 97 trades year to date.
是不是太多了 有多少交易 Is that too much? And how many trades have
两个伤口都治疗了 哦 我都不知道 both marks treated? Oh, I don't even know.
我是说 我做了很多交易 所以有很多局部交易和围绕头寸的交易 所以可能不是最好的衡量标准 I mean, I-I trade a lot of trades, so a lot of partials and a lot of trading around positions, so probably not the best gauge.
我都不知道我能想出多少交易 但是 我也不知道 I couldn't even tell you how many trades off the top of my head, but, um, I don't know.
马克 你知道你做了多少交易吗 Mark, do you even have an idea of how many trades you've done?
是啊 我刚在问布兰登 实际上 我想 大概三十年代吧 Yeah, I was just asking Brandon, actually, uh, I think, uh, somewhere in the thirties.
这个 对我来说 非常非常轻 This is, uh, yeah, pretty pretty, very, very light for me.
是啊 比我少多了 我可以肯定地告诉你 Yeah, that's way less than me, that that I can tell you for sure.
那么 但是 但是 97次交易太多了吗 Um, so, but, but, is 97 trades too much?
但是 你知道 这是一个相对的术语 But that's, you know, again, that's a relative term.
我的意思是 我不知道你是否在做短线交易 这是很小的 你知道 I mean, I don't know if you're short term trading, it's, it's minuscule, you know.
嗯 如果你是超级长期投资 可能会有很多 嗯 Um, so if you're super long term investing, it's probably a lot, uh?
如果你在进行波动交易 就不会 If you're swing trading, no it doesn't.
你知道 波动交易 一般来说 You know, swing trading, generally speaking.
嗯 波动交易 你知道 每年会做250到500笔交易 这取决于市场是好还是坏 Um, swing trading, you know, will do 250 to 500 trades in a year, depending if it's a good market or a bad market.
在一个非常艰难的环境中 可能只有100或150个交易 In a really tough environment, might be only a hundred, a hundred and 50 trades.
这要视情况而定 这更多的是基于市场环境 你知道 在一个非常好的市场中 再次 你知道 像2021年 所有这些爆发只持续了几天 我做了 呃 你知道 成千上万的交易 嗯 所以这真的是市场提供给你的 It really depends. It's more based on the the market environment, you know, in a really good market, and again, you know, like 2021, where there was all these breakouts that only lasted for a number of days, I did, I did, uh, you know, thousands of trades and, um, so it's really what the markets offering you.
是的 我们今年有161种交易作为官方交易服务 所以这至少会给你一个衡量记住 你不应该把所有的交易都拿出来 Yeah, we have 161 trade for the year on the service as Official Trade, so that'll give you at least a gauge of Keep a mind, you're not supposed to be taking all the trades guys.
这是一个创意产生的服务 所以这就是有多少名字或媒体的标准来为你演示评分方法 It's a idea generated service. So that's how many names or media are criteria to demonstrate for you marks methodology.
但我不认为我们会提倡人们做每一笔交易 或任何类似的交易 But I don't think we would advocate for people taking every trade, or or anything close to it.
不 杰森在问 我在空格栏里 哦 空格栏 在市场里点击空格栏 No, uh, jason asking. I was space barring through, oh, spaceboard, clicking the spaceboard through the market.
史密斯哦 周六任意五个月和一个月趋势模板的Markmen Smith Uh. Markmen of any five month and one month trend templates on Saturday.
我在这里看到了一些股票的走势图还有其他一些股票也有这种走势图 几周的训练都很紧张 And I came across the charts of a few names here and a few other stocks that have this type of chart, very tight training for multiple weeks.
我想知道你能否解释一下是什么因素产生的 但是这种类型的图表 我只会提出一个S-W-C-H标记 I was wondering if you could explain what factors produce, but chart of this type, I will just bring up one S-W-C-H mark.
这些可能是买断 这就是你所看到的 这就是导致股票几乎持平的原因 These are probably buyouts, which is what you're seeing and and that's what causes the stocks to, uh, almost flat line.
不 只是看看这个 我马上就能告诉你 这是一个提议的合并或偶然的报价或什么的 Nah, just just looking at that, I can immediately tell you that that's a proposed merger or casual offer or something.
当然 这些就是你们将要看到的 So absolutely, those are those that you're going to see there.
会有一个缩略词 写着 PM或C-O 这将表明 你知道 这是一个现金报价 一个拟议的合并 There'll be a little acronym that will say, PM or C-O, and that'll show that, you know, that's a cash offer, a proposed merger.
那些是 你知道 那不是那个紧度不会 呃 那不会被认为是紧度 可交易的紧度 对吧 And those are, you know, that's not that tightness is not going to, um, that's not gonna be considered tightness, tradeable tightness, right?
是的 我正在停车 其他的都在往下看 Yeah, I'm pulling up. The other ones are all looking down.
2021年伯爵们提出的一个问题是 这些行业正在上涨 而股票却陷入了艰难的环境 A question from earls in 2021, the industries were going up, while stocks were caught in a hard penny environment.
相反的情况也有可能 市场不再下跌 而是在股市处于宽松的美元环境时进行整合 当然 Is the opposite also possible, where the market is not going down anymore, but consolidating while stocks are in an easy dollar environment, absolutely um.
而且 你知道 那将是 那将是时候 你知道 你有领导者开始嗯而且 它可能 它可能发生 就像我说过的 它可能发生 预测巧合 或或确认 这将是滞后到底部 And And, you know, that would be, that would be the time where, you know, you have the leaders starting to uh and And again, it could, it could happen, as I've said, it could happen, predictive coincident, or or confirming, which would be lagging to the to the bottom both.
也就是说 要么在市场降至低位之前 要么在市场降至低位前后 要么在市场降至低位之后 然后上升到右侧 That's basically looking at it either, you know, pre the market making low, around the time the market makes low, or after the market makes so low, and then is running up the right side.
在这三个领域 你会看到 新领导者的出现 Those are the three areas that you'll get, um, the emergence of of new leaders.
有时候 你没有太多的 嗯 预测 他们从低点出来 他们来晚了 Sometimes you don't get much, uh, predictive and and they come right off the lows, and they come later.
有时候你会得到很多名字 很有预见性 Sometimes you get a lot of names, predictive.
然后 你知道 你有很多从低 然后向上的右侧 And then, you know, you get a lot coming off the low and then coming up the right side.
你不会 你不会得到很多 因为爆发的那些 它们只是在增加 并被延长 You don't, you don't get many because the ones that broke out, they're just running up and getting extended.
然后你必须去另一个 你知道 撤回另一个基周期 And then you have to go to another, you know, pull back another basing period.
所以它有点 你知道 没有以不同的方式表现出来 嗯 每次 So it kind of, you know, no manifest itself in in a in different ways, um, each time.
但它是这三个领域之一 But it's, it's one of those three areas.
所以这就是为什么我开始寻找 即使在市场触底之前 最好的股票也会在市场之前就触底 So that's why I'll start looking, even before the markets bottoming, the best stocks will bottom well ahead of the market.
它们会达到低点 当市场指数处于下降趋势时 它们会处于上升趋势 They'll make their lows, and they'll be in up trends when the market indexes are in down trends.
我 我向你保证 I that I'll, I'll assure you of um.
这就是为什么趋势模板如此重要 因为你要找的是那些处于上升趋势的股票 即使当 And that's why the trend template is so important, because you're looking for those stocks that are in an uptrans, even when the
市场处于下行趋势 和 markets in a downtrent. And
他们可以 是的 你可以 and they can, yeah, you can.
你可以进入你的小利基市场 或者你在股票宇宙中的小领域 你可以在一个容易赚钱的环境中 在市场甚至触及新低的时候做得很好 You can get in your little um niche, or your little area of the universe of stocks, you could be in an easy dollar environment, in doing really well when the market is even hitting new lows.
现在 再一次 它不会像它会是广泛的 Um Now, again, it's not going to be like it's going to be broad
的基础 通常在市场脱离低点并开始上涨之后 你会得到广泛的参与 然后你会得到糟糕的三天等等 based. Usually later on you get that broad based participation, usually after the market comes off the lows and starts marking itself up, and you get those foul three days and so forth.
但可以肯定的是 一些更好的名字 嗯 你知道 通常会在Bob问的关于powerplace的问题之前设置 But certainly that some of the better names, um, you know, will very often will set up Prior to the low Bob is asking with regards to powerplace.
他认为我们想让国旗往下飘 He believes we want the flag to drift downwards.
看看akr-o 你不需要知道 你不需要向下漂移 Looking at AK R-O, well, you don't have to know, you don't have to have a drift downwards.
它可能会走偏 A-K-R-O的情况很好 It can just go sideways. Um, A-K-R-O is holding up really nicely.
嗯 没有 怎么了 他的问题是 我们是否需要在权力博弈中看到更低的低点正如他所指出的 高点正在下降 而低点却没有 Um, no. What's the matter? His question is asking if do we need to see lower lowes in the power play as the as he's noting the highs are drifting lower, but not the lows?
还要多少时间才能超过2970点的高点 And how much more time would be needed for this to become Bible above the 2970 high?
或者你能早点来吗 Or would you, could you get in earlier?
我不会用2970 我不知道为什么我的等一下 I wouldn't use the 2970. I don't know why something happened here to my Hold on a 2nd.
很抱歉 这是A-K-R-R Sorry about that. This is A-K-R-R, yeah.
我的十字架都乱了 My cross heres are all messed up.
我不知道为什么 等一等 I don't know why. Hold on.
让我们来看看 好吧 他们在那里工作 Let's see. Okay, they're working there.
让我们在这里试试 好了 就这样 Let's try it here. Okay, there we go.
所以 嗯 2978不是用来买点的 So, um, the 2978 that that would not be just did to buy point.
所以仅仅因为这是高位 你就不能从底部购买 So just because it's the high, that's not where you buy from the base.
你通过枢轴买入 再说一遍 这些都在我的书里解释过了 回去看看我的书 里面有例子和完整的解释 You buy through the pivot. And again, this all explained to my book, so go back and read my books, and there's examples and full explanations of this um.
当然 如果她来参加硕士课程 我们会讲成百上千个例子 And certainly, if she comes to the master chair program, we've going to go over hundreds and hundreds of examples.
但是在这个例子中 我们来看一个 But in this instance, went so let's see one.
做345-6789 大概要10天的时间 现在就可以做好了 do 345-6789. So it's about ten days here, so this is really going to be ready, you know, right about now.
我是说 我希望它能收紧一点 但如果它能收紧 也许 呃 看这里 不 也许一两天 I mean, I'd like to see it tighten up a bit, but if this could tighten up for, maybe, um, see here, no, maybe a day or two.
如果你这样做 我就会从这里买下它 And you do this, I will be buying it coming through here.
这就是你的by点 这是你的枕头 你的枢轴在这里 嗯 我想是2751到2773之间的某个地方 So that's your by point. That's your pillow, your pivots down here, um, I would say somewhere through the 2751 to 2773.
也许可以在20点07 51开始买一点 然后在2773点结束 Could maybe start buying a little bit as it gets through the 20 07:51, and then finished up your by as it goes to the 2773.
这是在2978年之前 And that's way before the 2978.
这是 但这是它必须在这里收紧 甚至可能需要几天 And that's but that's it would have to tighten up here, and maybe even a couple days.
很接近了 这是一个 这是我的观察列表上的一个 它会通过警报 呃 在我们的关注列表中 So it's getting very close. And this is one, this is one that I do have on my watch list, which would make by alert, uh in in our focus list.
B-O-WLS 另一个是我从一个很大的基地出来的 然后把它拉回来 呃 C-A-L-M 冷静 呃 从一个很大的基地出来的 B-O-W LS. Another one that I was come out of this pretty big base, and just pulling back here, uh, C-A-L-M, calm, uh, which came out of a big base.
他们撤退了 周五穿了件好衣服 They pulled back, had a good clothes on Friday.
现在 你知道 看起来还不错 And now, um, you know, that looks pretty decent.
B-R-T-X就是你在这里看到的 B-R-T-X is one that you see here.
它只是飘回这里 它仍然在一个碱中 It's just drifting back here. It's still holding in a base.
这是一些例子 嗯 So these are a few. Um.
B-J今天表现不错 B-J is acting pretty good today.
呃 我只是放松一下 他从一个基地逃了出来 Uh, just pulling back. He broke out from a base.
这只是一个自然的回调到爆发点 It just a natural pullback to the breakout point.
所以这些是一些名字 你知道 我在这里寻找潜在的购买 呃 所有的 你知道 都符合这个标准 你知道 在市场之前提出趋势 并从基础中出来 是的 呃 So these are some of the names that, you know, I'm looking at here as potential buys and, uh, and all, you know, are meeting that criteria, you know, of bringing up trends prior to the market and coming out of basis, yeah, uh.
对于那些不知道的人 他们有一个积极的阶段进行试验 For those that don't know, they had a positive phase to be trial.
同时还提供了价值1 75亿美元的股票的二次发行 Also offering doing a secondary for a hundred and $75 million worth of stock.
这里面有很多东西 So a couple of things going on with this.
这个名字 对吧 迈克尔在问马克 我看到你的搭档和贾里德·滕勒在做演示 This name, right? Michael's asking Mark, I saw your partner with Jared Tenler for a presentation.
你读过他的书 交易的心理游戏 吗 Have you read his book, mental Game of Trading?
我有他的书 因为当我 嗯 你知道 当我被邀请和他一起参加蓝天活动时 嗯 我确实想看看 你知道 他是怎么回事 I have his book because when when I was, um, you know, when I was asked to do this Blue Sky event with him, um, I did want to see, you know, what what he was about.
所以我确实拿到了他的书 但我没有读完整本书 So I did get his book, but I did not read the whole thing.
我翻了一遍 读了很多地方 I did thumb through it and read it and read some areas here and there.
我只是略过了一下 所以我对这个问题没有太多的看法 但是我有 但是我和他谈过 从那以后我们谈过几次这个会议 他看起来非常非常自信 renee问 除了后见之明 什么因素可以预测长期或周期性熊市 I just sort of skipped around on it, so I don't really have a much of an opinion on it, but I had, but I have talked to him, we we talked a couple times since then about this um session, and he seems like a very, pretty confident guy, renee is asking, other than in hindsight, what factors predict a secular or cyclical bear market?
嗯 再看一遍 我不想太深入预测 Um, well, see that again. I don't want to really get into prediction.
我不知道是什么预言 我不能预测 所以我不能回答这个问题 I-I don't know what predicts. I don't, I don't predict, so I-I wouldn't be able to answer that.
嗯 但是 你知道 有什么迹象会告诉我们 你知道 概率在哪里 我们处于 呃 你知道 那种环境 Um, but, you know what, what signs would there be that would tell us that, you know, where the the probabilities are, that we're in, uh, you know, that kind of environment.
一个是 你知道 经济的基本面 One is, you know, the fundamentals of of um of the economy.
另一个是 你知道 袜子的作用 Another is the, you know, the action of of socks.
你知道的 比如 那些超大的 You know, whether, like, for instance, with these big mega
caps 这些过去的领导者 比如Netflix 甚至亚马逊 还有 嗯 还有payPal等等 caps, these past leaders, like a Netflix, maybe even an Amazon, and, um, and pay Pal and so forth.
嗯 我很确定 你知道 那些现在 嗯 你知道 他们的长期球市已经结束了 现在他们将成为坚定的支持者 这并不意味着他们不能继续 他们不会上升 Um, I'm pretty sure that, you know, those are now, um, you know, their secular ball market is over, and now they're going to be stalwarts, which means doesn't mean they can't still, they're going to not go up.
但是他们的世俗领导方式节奏很快 现在已经崩溃了 But there's that fast pace in that that secular um leadership that they had looks like, that's broken now.
嗯 所以我更多地在个股中寻找 这是通过计算基数和技术行动 嗯 更多的是在基本面中 看看是否突然之间 收益已经在减速 Um. So I more look for that in individual names, and that's through counting bases and and and the technical action, um, more more than and also in the fundamentals, to see if all of a sudden, the earnings have been decelerating.
在很长一段时间里 他们都有很大的发展 For a long period of time, they've had a big run.
嗯 收益在很长一段时间里都很好 现在收益开始减速 Um. Earnings have been, you know, good for for a long period of time, and now the earnings are starting to decelerate.
股票的相对强弱 你知道 从90多到现在 The stock tops relative strength, you know, goes from upper, you know, nineties to now.
其中一些股票 你知道 有14个相对优势 Some of these stocks have, you know, 14 relative strengths.
所以 嗯 你知道 再说一次 我更像一个卡布斯 跟在火车后面 而不是试图成为引擎 你知道吗 So, um, you know, again, I'm, I'm more of a Kabus, following the train than I'm than trying to be the the engine, you know?
我不 我 我不知道一年后市场会怎样 也不知道股票会怎样 I don't, I, I'm, I-I don't have any idea where the market's gonna be a year from now, or a stocks gonna be.
不 没人知道 你知道 没人能确定 No, nobody knows that. You know, nobody knows that for certain.
如果我能 如果我知道 我会成为一个万亿富翁 If I could, if I knew that, I'd be a trillionaire.
所以我只是一个凡人 为了我的钱而工作 Um, so I'm just a mere mortal that has to actually work, you know, for my money.
然后 你停下来 所以 嗯 至于预测 我甚至不喜欢 你知道 考虑那个 呃 那个想法 And, you stops. So, um, as far as prediction, I don't even like to, you know, entertain that, uh, that idea.
迈克在问 你最近谈到了利弗莫尔和如何使用枢轴点 Mike is asking. You talked recently about livermore and how use pivot points.
除了他自己写的那两本书 还有其他关于这个主题的书吗 呃 你知道 没有很多工作 至少我知道在枢轴点上做得很好的工作 Are there other, any other books on the subject other than the two he wrote himself, uh, there's, you know, there's not a whole lot of work on, at least work that I know that's really great on pivot points.
我认为 你知道 我的书可能是我所知道的关于枢轴点的最好的讨论 除了 你知道 利弗莫尔更模糊的讨论 嗯 我使用它们有点不同 但是 嗯 是的 没有很多 你知道 达维斯使用盒子 你知道 他他只是打破了更小的基底或盒子 I think, you know, my books are probably the best discussion on pivot points that, um, that I know of, other than, you know, the more vague discussion by Livermore and, um, and I-I use them a little bit differently, but, um, yeah, there's not a whole lot, you know, darvis used box, you know, he he just breaking out of smaller bases or boxes.
嗯 但是 是的 我不知道很多书 我不知道 马克 你知道吗 很多书都在谈论枢轴点 Um, but, yeah, I don't, I don't know a lot of books that are, I don't know, mark, do you know, many books talk about pivot points?
是的 我自己也在想这个问题 That's yeah, I-I was thinking about that myself.
我的意思是 很明显 我实际上认为在某些方面 主交易者程序手册甚至更好 因为它有成千上万的例子 I mean, obviously I actually think the Master Trader Program Workbook is even better in some regards, because there's like a thousand examples of it.
但在很长一段时间里 这是我的一种模式 因为你没有 你知道 没有多少书有那么多图表 But that was sort of my model thing for a long time, because you don't get the, you know, there's not many books with that many charts.
那是我发现它最多的地方 Uh, that's where I find it most.
你知道 还有一些我们尼尔的东西 you know, some of our neil stuff as as well.
我知道他们 他们有 我想他们 呃 我在想名字 他们展示了历史上一些最大的赢家和一些基地 I know they, they have, I think they, uh, I'm trying to think of the name of it, where they show some of the biggest winners in history and some of the bases.
但是 是的 我不会 我不会浪费太多时间 But, uh, yeah, I-I wouldn't, I wouldn't waste a lot of time.
为什么 为什么要重新发明轮子 所有的模型书都在那里 Why? Why reinvent the wheel? All the model books are already there.
在你所有的工作中 是的 我的意思是 你真的不需要比我的书更多的书还有关于指甲的书 In all your work, yeah, I mean, you don't really need any more books than my books and and on nails books.
你不会得到什么新的或者更多的东西 There's nothing, there's nothing new or more that you're gonna get.
不是越多越好 你懂吗 Like, more is not better, you know?
我们 我们 你需要的一切都在我的书里 We, we, everything you need is in my books.
如果你拿onel的书 在我的书中 它们都是同质的 嗯 我会每本书读十遍 然后去读 你知道 50本书或100本书 因为你想完善一个特定的策略 And is in If you take onel's books, in my books, which are homogeneous, um, I would read those ten times each, then go and read, you know, a 50 books or a hundred books, because you want to perfect a particular strategy.
嗯 你知道 这是所有你需要的例子 Um. And you know, there's all the examples you need.
特别是如果你在这里 你知道你会看到所有你需要的枢轴点分析 Especially if you're here, you know you're going to see everything you need for a pivot point analysis.
问马克·里奇一个问题 我们总是像你现在一样自律 A question to Mark Ritchie, We always as disciplined as you are right now.
或者你认为你之所以能达到现在的自律水平 是因为你拿到了多少钱 Or do you think you grew into your current level of discipline because of how much money you are matching?
嗯 这是个好问题 当然 我没那么自律因为我有钱 Uh, that's a good question. I was certainly, uh, I'm not as disciplined because I-I have more money.
这就像我必须跳到办公室说 伙计 他有钱是因为他的纪律 对吧 It's the I have to just jump in the office as it's gonna say, man, he's got money because of his discipline, right?
对吧 账户从10万美元增长到数千万美元的原因是什么 Right? What the reason why the account grew from a hundred thousand dollars to tens of millions is from the discipline?
所以让我们做 是的 我 我只是 你知道 我想说 我想我最喜欢的一句话是第一本书的评论 我不会把这句话说得很完美 但纪律是 呃 伟大的代名词 它不是 So let's make, yeah, and and I-I would just, you know, I would argue, though, and I think one of my favorite quotes remarks 1st book, I'm going to not get the quote perfect, but the idea that discipline is, uh, synonymous with greatness, it's not.
在任何追求中 我认为 你知道 所有的音乐 体育 你知道 如果你想在某件事上做得好或出色 就需要纪律 嗯 And that's in any pursuit, I would argue, you know, all things music, sports, you know, if you want to be good or great at something, it's going to require discipline, um.
而且 你知道 我们一直在谈论这种事情 And, you know, there's, we talk about that kind of thing all the time.
我妻子会说她一直很守纪律 My wife would claim up she have always been disciplined.
但是 你知道 我不认为这是人们出生的时候 我认为 你知道 就像生活中的很多事情一样 你要弄清楚 嗯 你知道 为了在任何领域取得成功 都需要 你知道 每天准时出现 付出努力 无论那是什么 But, you know, I don't, I don't think this when people are born, I think, you, you know, like, like a lot of things in life, you you figure out, um, you know, in order to be successful at whatever it is, it's going to require, you know, showing up every day on time, putting in a good effort, and whatever that is.
我是说 我现在和我儿子一起工作 I mean, I'm, I'm working with my son right now.
我想变得更大更强壮 I wants to get bigger and stronger.
就像 好吧 这就是我们要做的事情 It's like, all right, here's what we're going to have to do to do this.
然后人们发现 嗯 也许也许我真的不想这么做 And then people find out, well, maybe maybe I don't really want to do this.
你知道 马克说 每个人都想成为市场向导多少次 直到到了做市场向导的时候 这需要纪律 You know, mark says, how many times everybody wants to be a market wizard till it's time to do market wizard things, which requires discipline.
一旦你开始把这种原则付诸实践 你就会发现自己到底想要多少 And once you start putting that discipline to practice, that's when you find out how much you really want.
当你做出承诺的时候 你就会发现你有多想要某样东西 它有多重要 Now, when you make that commitment, and that's when you find out how much you really want something and how much how important it is.
如果你真的 你真的 你知道那是 呃 适合你的事情 因为 嗯 你要么喜欢它 然后去做 要么 你知道 你会放弃 And if you're really, you're really, that's something that you know is, uh, is right for you because, um, neither enjoy it and you do it, or, you know, you quit.
这是一种试金石 And that's, that's sort of the litmus test.
你知道 当我 当我 当我开始打鼓的时候当我还小的时候 我 你知道 我曾经 我曾经逃课去我的地下室整天打鼓 You know, when I, when I was, uh, started playing drums when I was young, I, you know, I used to, I used to skip school and go in my basement and play my drums all day long.
我只是想打鼓 I just wanted to play my drums.
我有一种不可思议的自律 And I had an incredible discipline.
我只是练习 练习 再练习 I just practice and practice and practice.
你瞧 我成了一名优秀的鼓手 And lo and behold, I became a good drummer.
你知道 我的我的射击 我会去射击场练习几个小时 几个小时 几个小时 几个小时 我自己训练 You know, my my shooting, I'll go go to the shooting range and practice for hours and hours and hours and hours and drill myself.
你在 心态 这本书里读到的所有东西 都是我成为一名真正伟大的 你知道 一名比赛射击手所做的所有事情 And everything that you read about in the Mindset book, that's all the stuff that I did to become a really great, you know, a competition shooter.
所以这一切都源于纪律 So it's all all stem from discipline.
马克拿到了钱 拿到了账户 And marks got the money, you know, got the account.
他管理的公司之所以能赚大钱 就是因为纪律严明 They make the big money that he's managing as a result of the discipline.
他没有 他没有增加他的账户 He didn't, he didn't add to his account.
或者 你知道 像我这样的人 你知道 我们可以说 我们只写了一张支票 直到我们的经纪人账户 Or, you know, marks like me, you know, we can say, we've only written one check until our broker account.
这是正确的 好吧 马克 你已经发表了这样的评论 你知道吗 That's right. Well, and mark, you've made this comment, though, you know what?
把你带到那里的东西就是让你留在那里的东西 What takes you there is what keeps you there.
我已经 你知道 我已经和很多年轻的新交易员谈过 他们没有那么自律 这是 嗯 我将在早期采取更多的赌徒心态 然后我将在之后得到纪律 And I've, I've, you know, talked to a lot of younger, newer traders who are not as disciplined, and it's been, well, I'm going to take more of a gambler's mentality early on, and then I'll get disciplined later.
它应该是完全相反的 And it should be the exact opposite.
你应该像管理一千万那样管理一万美元 You know, you should be managing ten grand the same way you manage 10 million.
我要说的是第一个 And I'll say this for the 1st.
太 太 对了 1号吗 That's so, so, right for the 1st?
我做了5年 6年 7年的交易 我没有纪律 因为我不知道我在做什么 Uh, five, six, seven years that I was trading, I had, you know, I-I didn't have a discipline, because I didn't know what I was doing.
我甚至知道如何约束自己 I'd even know what to discipline myself.
我没有任何指导 所以我只是 你知道 在大海上飞着 做我认为正确的事情 买低的 买低的股票 I didn't have any guidance, so I just was, you know, flying by the sea to my pants and doing what I thought was right, buying low, buying stocks that were down by low cell high.
但当当我的一切都改变了的时候 就是当我划清界限的时候 But when when everything changed for me, is when I-I drew a few lines in the sand.
你知道 我说过 我不会逐点追逐股票 我会在每只对我不利的股票上减少损失 You know, I said, I'm not gonna chase stocks extended from by points, and I'm cutting my loss on every single stock that moves against me.
我永远不会让股票下跌 然后遭受巨大的损失 然后继续承受巨大的损失 I will never allow stock to go down and and have and have a big loss and hold the big loss.
那是 你知道 那是在80年代末 到90年代初 我在沙子上画了一条线 And that was, you know, that was in the late eighties, going to the early nineties, where I-I drew that line in the sand.
这就是我非常自律的方法的开始 That was the beginning of my very disciplined approach.
那是第一个 几个学科 然后我又加了进去 Those were the 1st, like, couple disciplines, and then I added to those.
所以我一直在增加 直到我有了一个整体 你知道 我的游戏很全面 我有了一个整体的策略和纪律 So I just kept adding and adding until I had a total, you know, my game was well rounded, and I had a total strategy and disciplines for everything.
但就在那时 一切都变了 在那之前 没有自律 我做得很糟糕 But that's when everything changed. Prior to that, without the discipline, you know, I-I did terrible.
我从来没有五六年没赚过钱 I-I-I never didn't make any money for five or six years.
在印度 我们在过去两周进入了出货阶段和库存 多亏了你们出色的方法 我们在任何重大问题出现之前就退出了 Kashev Is saying In India, we entered the ship stage and stocks in the last two weeks, in courtesy of your awesome methods, we got out prior to any major troubles that.
非常感谢 他的问题是 我最近看到很多深蹲 Thanks a lot. His question is, I have been seen a lot of squats lately.
我看到的一个主题是 等待下蹲 然后等待股票进入 如果它再次爆发 这是一个突破时间变成下蹲 Something I saw as a theme, which was working was to wait for the squat and then wait for the stock to come inside, and buying If it breaks out again, it is a breakout time turning into a squat.
因此 不好意思 让我读一下 这是一个突破 变成了一个深蹲 之后价格进入 再次爆发 And therefore, I'm sorry, let me read that is a breakout, turning into a squat, and thereafter the price coming in and breaking out again.
这是一个很好的设置 因为它可以省去周末 A good setup, as it takes out the weekends.
嗯 这需要很多想象力 我想象 我不确定 Well, that that requires a lot of imagination, me visualizing, I'm not sure exactly.
我不知道 马克 你在想象那个图表是什么样子的吗 I don't know. Mark, are you visualizing that, like, what that chart looks like?
好吧 我想这个想法 当然会有一个很好的例子 Yeah, well, I guess idea, of course, would be good with an example.
我认为他的意思是 如果你蹲着 或者可能是某种类型的外部 你知道 反转 如果你愿意 然后第二天就会进入内部 I think what he's saying is, if you get a squat, or maybe some type of an outside, you know, reversal, if you will, and then it goes inside the next day.
你能 你能在随后的日内买入 或者买回来吗 Can you, can you buy it breaking out of the subsequent inside day, or buy, sort of buy it back?
在交易方面 我是一个非常直观的人 I'm a very visual person when it comes to trading.
我依赖于图表 所以只能说是 基于这两天的价格走势 你知道 我会说这取决于它所处的环境 I rely on charts, so to just say yes, based on that, that's on two days of price action that, you know, I would say that depends on the context of where it is.
如果它是从一个基底延伸出来的 不 你知道 如果它没有延伸 嗯 是的 你可以 If it's extended from a base, no, you know, if it's not extended, um, yeah, you could.
你可能会买 但你看 这是一次逆转复苏 You could buy it, probably. But look, a reversal recovery.
有时我会在股价反转时买进或加仓 即股价反弹 突破低位 然后回落 Sometimes I'll buy or add on a reversal, recoveries of the stock, breaks out its squats, and then it quiets down.
就像你说的 它会进入体内 然后抽出那么高 It goes inside, like you said, and then it takes out that high.
嗯 我可能 我可能 我可能会买它或在那里增加 但股票仍然不能从基地延伸太远 Um, I might, I might, I might buy it or add to it there, but did stock would still have to not be too extended from the base.
这就是主要的问题 So so that's the main thing.
所以我必须在上下文中看到它 你必须看到图表 但它不是 你知道 它不是那么简单 So I'd have to see it in context, and you have to see the chart, but it is not, you know, it's not just that simple.
内森问 我相信你可能在9月12日购买了E-M-P-H 你的策略是什么 Nathans asking, I believe you may have purchased E-M-P-H on september 12, what was your strategy, what pivot pointed to use?
你的盘子停在哪里 Where did the plate your stop?
好的 npH是在哪一天被购买的他发送客户购买信息的日期 Okay, well, np H was purchased on what date did he send any client purchase?
什么 9月吗 所以是在08 24购买的 就在这里 That of what? September? So is purchased on 08:24, which is right here.
这是第一次购买 第二次消费是在96号 也就是这里 That was the 1st purchase. The 2nd purchase was on Nine six, which is right here.
所以他们都没有 或者你说的那个日期 你说的那个日期是 九月 什么时候 So neither of them, or the date that you said, the date that you said was, uh, september, what?
1212 应该就在这里 Twelve 12th, which would have been right here.
我不知道你为什么会选择这一天 嗯 如果有的话 最有可能的是 你知道 我通常会在9月7日买股票 或者可能是在14日 And I'm not sure why you would pick that day, um, if anything, it would be most likely, you know, the day that I would usually be buying would be on september 7, or maybe on the 14th.
如果我在那之前不买 这是我最有可能买的日子 Those would be the most likely days that I would buy if I didn't buy prior to that.
所以 但是 嗯 你知道 我买它的原因是 它是一种权力游戏类型 建立在一个非常强大的团队中 展示了各种真正伟大的基础 So, but, um, you know, the reason why I bought it was it was a, it was a power play type set up in a very strong group, showing all kinds of really great fundamentals.
就在这里 你还得揪着毛往后拉 And right here, you had to still pull back by the fur.
这是为了从低的地方拉回来 你有一个很好的接近 This was to pull back by off the low there that you had a good close.
我只等了一天 看看它是否能继续下去 And I waited just one more day to see if it could follow through.
然后它在这里向后拉了一点 然后从另一个极点回来了 And then it pulled back a bit here, and then turned up from another pole back by.
我决定现在让它回来 测试一下那个水平 这是真正的交易 很好 很好 And I just decided let now that it came back and sort of tested that that level, that that was really trading, nice, nice.
接近危险点 And close to the danger point.
如果你在这里画一条线 现在 现在 现在我得到了我的位置 就在这里 就在这里 如果它向下 你知道 这将开始看起来 你知道 这将是不正常的 If you just draw a line right here, now, now, now I'm getting my position, and right here and right here, if it turns down, you know, that's going to start looking, you know, that that's going to be abnormal.
然后 当它在这里收紧时 嗯 我实际上在考虑穿这个超重 但它向另一个方向发展 So then, as it tightened up here, um, I was actually considering going overweight in this, but it went the other way.
如果这个一直很紧 然后爆发 我就会 我就会建立一个非常大的头寸 然后增持 If this stayed tight and then broke out, I was gonna, I was gonna take a really large position and go overweight in this.
但同样 它没有爆发 这就是为什么等待分手很重要 But again, it didn't break out, and that's why it's important to wait for the breakup.
好的 汤米说你在周末的视频中经常提到1990年 从你的书中 我了解到1990年对你个人来说是一个转折点 就你的训练结果而言 All right, tommy saying you brought up 1990 quite often in your weekend videos, from reading your books, my understand that 1990 was turning point for you personally, in terms of your training results.
对你来说 1990年的顿悟时刻是什么 你开始做了什么不同的事情 What was the aha moment of 1990 for you, and what did you start doing differently?
你会对MPA的成员说什么 What would you say to the member of MPA?
感觉他们已经很接近了 但还没有得到那种超性能的喷气机 感觉他们就像你在1998年 1990年 你知道 8889年 进入1990年的转折点 我做的主要事情 对我来说主要的转折点 它确实发生了 进入1990年 Feels like they're so close, but haven't gotten that superperform jet, and feel like they are where you are in 1998, 1990, you know, 8889, leading into that 1990 turning point, the main thing that I did yet, the main turning point for me, and it did happen, going into 1990.
20世纪90年代对我来说是一个很大的转折点 1990s was a big turning point for me.
主要的转折点是我开始只依靠股票 Um, the main turning point was that I started to just rely on the stocks.
我把方程倒过来了 I flipped the equation upside down.
在此之前 我一直在等待我所关注的道琼斯指数 I was prior to that, I was waiting for the general market that I was looking at, the Dow.
正在看 你知道 呃 呃 你知道 每天都在找一个文件 看指数 一旦指数看起来见底 我就开始看这些组 说什么是强劲的 然后试着在组中找到最好的股票 Was looking at, you know, um the uh uh, you know, looking for a file through day and looking at the indexes, and then once the indexes look like they bottom, I'd start looking at the groups and saying what was strong, and then trying to find the best stocks in the group.
当时的情况是 所有最好的股票都没了 What happened was, is that all the best stocks were gone.
他们都站起来 伸直身子 They were all up and extended.
然后我 但是我回头看 我发现有这些很棒的点 And then I'd, but I'd look back and I'd and I'd see that there was these great by points.
我就想 伙计 为什么我没看到这些 I'm like, man, why didn't I see those?
因为我不是在寻找他们 因为我在看市场 我在等待 我有这种偏见 你知道 我必须有一般的市场 Because I wasn't looking for them, because I-I was looking at the market, and I was waiting, I had this bias that, you know, I had to have the general market.
但我发现龙头股 人们称其为龙头股是有原因的 因为它们是龙头股 But what I discovered was is that the leading stocks, there's a reason why they call them leading stocks, because they lead.
所以我意识到他们是第一个触底的 他们实际上是在一个基础上突破的 要么刚过低点 要么就在低点之前 So I-I realized that they were bottoming 1st, and they were actually breaking on a basis, either right off the lows or just prior to the lows.
所以如果我用那个方法 我总是会迟到 So I'd always be late if I used that method.
所以我做的就是把它颠倒过来 我就变成了一个由下而上的投资者 我去了股票集团市场 So what I did was I flipped it upside down, and I and I just became a bottoms up and, you know, investor, and I went stocks group market.
基本上 当有很多股票的时候 我就会寻找那些在群体中出现的股票 这就会把我带到最热门的群体 有时会在它之前 因为你会有几只领头的长狼 And basically, when there's a lot of stocks, I look for the ones that are showing up in the groups, and that leads me to the group that's hot and and and sometimes prior to it, because you're just going to have a few long wolfs of the leaders that lead 1st.
然后有很多股票从基地出来 你看 这是一个好市场 你知道吗 And then when there's a lot of stocks bring out of bases, lo and behold, it's a good market, you know?
就在那时 突然之间 我进入了牛市 我走出了熊市 我对市场的时机把握 非常准确 So it just then, all of a sudden, I'm I'm in the bull markets, I'm out of the bear markets, and I'm timing the market, like, with incredible accuracy.
你知道 他们想让我上cnn And, you know, they want me on C n.
b c 写baron的文章 你知道 所有这些东西 因为 你知道 我在做这些市场电话 但我不是真的在做市场电话 b. C. and do baron's articles on, you know, all these things, because, you know, I'm making these market calls, but I'm not really making market calls.
我只是很傻 当很多股票都在准备的时候 I'm just foolish when there's a lot of stocks setting up, and
当它们伸展和滚动时是熊市 bearish when they're extended and rolling over.
这让我有了会打电话的名声 And that led to me having a reputation of being able to call
在市场的顶部和底部 从来没有 你知道 没有人意识到我真的没有试图打电话给警察和鲍勃 tops and bottoms in the market without ever, you know, no one ever realized him that I really wasn't trying to call Cops and Bobs.
但这是一个转折点 你知道 只是把股票作为我的主要指标 就像我上次做的那样 But that was the turning point, you know, just looking at, you know, stocks, stocks as my lead indicator, as I just did in this last
一年 这给了我们提前的时间 year, which gave us that lead time.
直到今天 人们还在问 什么 Now, to this day, people are going, what?
你从中看到了什么 What did you see for that?
你知道 在最高点的那个单元格 你知道 当你看纳斯达克指数时 那个单元格在这里发出信号 就在我们反转的那天 它看起来 看起来我完美地把握了指数的时间 You know, that that cell right at the high, you know, when you look at um the NASDAQ, and that that um, that cell signals right here, right right on the day that we reverse, it looks like, it looks like I time the index perfectly.
然后我们有了反转 And then we had that reversal.
你知道 一定是那天市场行情反转的原因 You know, must have been something about that reversal day in some pattern at the market.
不 真的不是 另外200只股票的比例大约是30只左右这是一个令人难以置信的差异 No, it really wasn't. It was that the the percentage of stocks of other 200 a day was like at 30 something and and and it was this incredible divergence.
所以 你知道 这只是我在个股上看到我需要看到的东西的经验 它只是碰巧在那天发生了 So, you know, it just was from experience of seeing what I needed to see on the on the individual stocks, and it just happened to coincide with that day.
但这和指数一点关系都没有 Um, but it wasn't really anything about the index at all.
好吧 还有 汤米问马克 里奇 打扰一下 你是怎么度过难关的 All right, um, also, uh, tommy was asking Mark, richie, for you're a moment, how did you get through the difficult types?
我想说的是 我的一个重大顿悟时刻是在第一个交易大师课程后不久 I would say, one of my big aha moments was shortly after the 1st master trader program.
嗯 你知道 我在2010年末没有进行筛选 嗯 你知道 在市场上有一段时间 你知道 我记得问过一个问题 嗯 你知道 你怎么知道如何变得真正积极 诸如此类的事情 Um, you know, I hadn't been screening as this late 2010, um, you know, there was a period in the market where, you know, I remembered asking the question, well, you know, how do you know how to get real aggressive and that kind of thing.
而且 你知道 马克曾经说过 当有更多的股票 更多的股票和良好的设置 比你有钱买的时候 是最好的指标之一 And, you know, mark had said, when there's more stocks and a lot more stocks and good setups than you have money to buy, is one of the best indicators.
你不亲眼看到是不会知道的 Well, you're not going to know that till you see it.
嗯 然后 你知道 我们有一段时间 你知道 我想说的是 你知道 第四季度 一两个月后 果然 我在筛选 就像 你知道 我有一个单子 上面有大量的想法 Um. And then, you know, we had a period, you know, I want to say it was, you know, the 4th quarter, month or two later, and sure enough, I'm screening, and it's like, you know, I've got A-A list that's expanding in tons of ideas.
然后我买了几个 它们真的很好用 而且有越来越多的想法 And then I buy a couple, and they're really working, and there's more and more and more ideas.
然后 你知道 我有一个非常好的 我不记得了 我想我有 我不知道 两个月50% 或者类似的 And, you know, I wound up having a really good, I can't remember, I think I did, I don't know, 50% in two months, or something like that.
就像 好吧 这就是 这就是我需要看到的 And it was like, well, this is, this is all I need to see.
如果我能时不时地看到这个 你知道 一遍又一遍 我想我真的能做得很好 If I can keep seeing this every now and again, you know, over and over, I think I can really do well at this.
这一点很关键 So that was sort of a key one.
一次 你知道 第一次看到 捕捉waveright 我能 我可以告诉你 我可以告诉你 肯定会同意你在这里 和你这样做你的职业生涯的时间越长 你可以关掉噪音越多 你能看到 这是 这是用任何东西 你越是能看到的信息是很重要的 Once, you know, seeing that for the 1st time and catching the waveright, I can, I can tell you this, that, and I can tell you in a mark, would certainly agree that as you go on here, and you you the longer you have a career doing this, the more you're able to tune out noise, the more you're able to see, and this is, this is with anything um, the more you're able to see the information that's important.
它变得越来越窄 越来越窄 And it gets narrower and narrower and narrower.
这就是为什么 你知道 专业人士让事情看起来如此简单 因为他们真的把它归结为他们知道要寻找什么 而其他的一切都只是噪音 It just starts getting where pretty soon it's so and that's why, you know, pros make things look so simple, you know, because they really boil it down to they know what to look for, and they just everything else is just noise.
所以 这就是底线 你知道 股票的走势 当然 说起来容易做起来难 So, and that's the bottom line, you know, what are the stocks going and And, you know, of course, it's a lot easier than said than done.
你知道 很多人刚开始做这个 你知道 他们甚至不知道如何识别图表模式 You know, so many just starting this, you know, they don't even know how to identify a chart pattern.
他们什么都不懂 They don't know what anything means.
这有一个过程 有一个时间顺序 你必须建立在趋势图的基础上 So there there's a process to this, and there's a chronology, and you've got to build on the trend the chart.
现在是爆发点 轴心点 然后是细微差别等等 Now, the breakout points, the pivots, and then the nuances and all this stuff.
但这就是所有这些来的地方 你知道 我们有整个时间顺序的程序 But that's where all this comes in, where, you know, we have this whole chronological program.
然后使用Monolert 你知道 在爆发后阅读股票 甚至 你知道 爆发前发生了什么 真正能够看到 你知道 什么是违规 什么是好 什么是坏 嗯 呃 And then with Monolert, you know, reading that stock for you post breakout, or even, you know, what's happened up to that breakout, and really being able to see, you know, what's a violation, what's good, what's bad, um, uh.
所以 所以这需要时间 你知道的 So, so it takes time, though, you know.
但关键是把它归结为最简单的 最简单的东西 最不动的部分 But that's that the key is to boil it down to the simplest, the simplest thing, the least moving parts.
这就是我从比尔·奥尼尔身上学到的 And that's, that's what I learned from Bill O'neil.
不 穿高跟鞋的比尔 用柱状图就行 No, bill on heel, just use bar charts.
我的意思是 我基本上用的是比尔·奥尼尔用的 柱状图和移动平均线 就是这样 I mean, I use basically what Bill O'neil use, I bar charts and and moving averages in volume, that's it.
嗯 我从BillO neil那里意识到 如果这个人可以通过柱状图赚到五千万甚至一亿美元 我还需要什么呢 Um. And I realized with from Bill O'neil, you know, if this guy could make 50, a hundred million dollars with bar charts, you know, what the heck do I need anything else for?
如果 如果 如果 如果 你知道的 我认识很多人他们通过柱状图 价格 销量 赚取销售额和利润 赚了很多很多美元 If, you know, if, if, if, uh, you know, I-I know lots of people that have made, you know, many, many millions of dollars with bar charts and price and volume and earning sales and margins.
所以 你知道 这就是你想要的 So, um, you know, that's what you want.
你只是想在这些事情上做得很好 You just want to get really good at those things.
这很难 因为有太多的东西扔给你 有太多的信息 但大部分都是毫无价值的 And it's, it's hard because there's so much getting thrown at you, and there's so much information out there, but most of it's worthless.
好的 一个问题是关于GLD目标的 这是多年来的最低点 All right, A question asking about goal GLD making a multi year low.
这对你有什么暗示吗 Is that any indication for you?
你会用这个作为场景膨胀的标志吗 Do you use that as an indication for a scene inflation?
你知道 是又坏了还是又掉下来了 Is is, you know, breaking or coming down again?
我不认为黄金真的是一个很好的通胀衡量标准 I don't think gold has really been a great inflationary measure,
你知道的 我的意思是 我并不是首先想要确定通货膨胀的时间 我在时间方面没有专业知识 通货膨胀在过去50年里出现过一次 you know. I mean, I'm not trying to time inflation 1st of all, so so, like, I don't have an expertise in timing, inflation has turned up one time in the last 50 years.
那是我们最后一次 It's been the last time we had
通货膨胀是这样上升的 是20世纪70年代 inflation run up like this. Was in the 1970s.
所以这不是偶然发生的 So it's not like something that happens.
有时候 我有机会进行交易 There's occurrences where I have, you know, these opportunities to trade.
所以我不 我不 我不是一个通货膨胀计时器 嗯 所以目标在预测通货膨胀方面并不是很好 在最近的历史中 嗯 我认为有一个动态的 你知道 有一个动态的变化 在结构中 你知道 我们可以说我们的通货膨胀对冲 So I don't, I'm not, I'm not an inflation timer, um, so goal has not really been that great at, you know, predicting inflation and and in the recent history, uh, so I-I don't, I think there's, there is a dynamic, you know, there's dynamic changes within, um, the structure of, you know, what we could say our inflation hedges.
当你开始谈论比特币和索引时 你知道 已经开发了很多 在产品中已经开发了很多 When you start talking about Bitcoin and indexing, you know, there's, there's been a lot that's been developed, in products have been developed.
这是我们可以 我们可以辩论 讨论和理论化几个月 有一百万个不同的意见 This is something that and we could, we could debate and discuss and theorize for months and months on this, and have a million different opinions.
我不知道你是怎么想的 I don't know what, what do you think?
马克 据你所知 关于黄金和通货膨胀的脱钩 Um, uh, mark, as far as you know, the, uh, the decoupling of, you know, something like gold with inflation.
现在你觉得这和比特币有关吗 And now you think Bitcoin has anything to do with that?
不 这是我的观点 但我只是对整体进行评论 你知道 黄金和所有其他形式的对冲 No, I that's my opinion, but I'll just comment on the whole, you know, gold and all these other forms of hedging.
我的意思是 在我看来 这些都不是好主意的例子中 今年是最好的一年 I mean, this has been the perfect year of our example of why none of those are a good idea in my opinion.
你知道 在我的整个职业生涯中 我听过很多人说 这就是为什么你需要在债券 黄金和其他东西上进行多元化投资 You know, I just, you know, my whole career, I've heard lots of people saying things, this is why you need to be diversified in bonds and gold and all this other stuff.
但这些都没能拯救你今年 And none of that has saved you this year.
没有人推荐现金 除了我所知道的这项服务 或者在投资组合中投入大量现金 And and nobody recommends cash, other than you know, generally this service that I'm aware of, or certainly putting large percentages of your portfolio in cash.
因为人们总是告诉你什么 Because what do people always tell you?
你不想 你不想袖手旁观 You don't, you don't want to sit out.
你不想用ms 对吧 You don't want to MS. things, right?
黄金已经失败了 债券失败了 Gold has failed. Bonds have failed.
风险平价已经失败 套期保值全部失败 The risk parity has failed. Vol Hedging all of its failed.
今年唯一帮到你的就是现金 The only thing that it's helped you this year is cash.
所以 你知道 是的 这是对通货膨胀的对冲 So, you know. And, yeah, a hedge against inflation.
这是一场灾难 金价下跌 通胀上升 It's a disaster. Golds down and inflations up.
是吗 当我们放弃金本位制的时候 Yeah? And when we went off the, we went off the gold Standard.
那么黄金到底意味着什么呢 So what does gold even mean?
我的意思是 你知道 他们只是印钞票 就像 就像一个长凳 I mean, you know, they're, they're only print money, like, like a, like a benchy here.
所以你不能真的 你知道 整个系统都搞砸了 我们操纵它的方式 政府操纵货币的方式等等 So you can't really, you know, that the whole system is so screwed up, the way we've manipulated it, the way the government manipulates the, uh, the currencies and so forth.
所以我只是认为这是非常扭曲的 嗯 但是 你知道 股票价格将是真实的 你知道 当你是一辆车 你知道 你只是趋势跟随 你在行动的地方 你在运动的地方 你不质疑为什么 你不需要知道为什么 花所有的时间 So I just think that it's very distorted, um, but, you know, that stock prices are gonna be true, you know, that's again, when you're a caboose, you know, and you just trend follow, you're where the action is, you're where the movement is, and you don't question why, and you don't have to know why and spend all this time.
问题是 当你想出了一个大理论 你想出了背后的一个大原因 嗯 很难放手 你知道 你会深挖 The problem is, when you come up with a big theory, and you come up with this big reason behind something, well, it's very hard to let go, you know, and you dig in.
这些是这些是真正的冒险家 And these are the these are the real risk takers.
人们会想出这些伟大的想法 然后把它压在床上 然后死在那里 The people will come up with these big ideas and then bed it bed big on them and liver die by them.
你知道的 这些都是有巨大拉绳的 Those are the ones that have giant drawnowns, you know.
这些人 你知道 前一天他们很富有 第二天他们一夜之间就抽了十亿美元的烟 Those are the are the people that, you know, one day they're, they're rich and, you know, and next day they they smoke a billion dollars overnight.
你经常听到对冲基金之类的东西 And you you hear about em all the time, hedge funds and so forth.
嗯 总之 我不能告诉你太多 你知道 黄金现在 你看 它表现不佳 看起来像垃圾 Um. So anyway, I-I-I can't tell you much, you know, gold is just right now, look at it, you know, it just underperforming and looks like crap here.
所以我当然不会 但会买黄金或金袜子 So I-I certainly wouldn't be a, but be a buying gold or gold socks.
是的 它也有相似的模式 Yeah, it actually does have a similar pattern too.
不过 这是一大笔钱 一年中的一个月 Big coin, though. For a month of the year.
一个人问 在熊市中 领先的集团通常在什么时候出现 A fellow is asking, when during a bear market, are the leading groups usually showing up?
这条裤子露出来了吗 是那些在熊市开始中期表现强劲的股票吗 Are the once showing? Are the ones showing strength in the beginning mid of a bear market?
目前 太阳能生物科技集团也处于领先地位 Currently, solar biotech also the groups leading at the end.
或者更多的情况是在最后没有完全改变 Or does it more often the not change completely towards the end?
没有唯一的方法 但一般来说 通常会有领先的群体领先 There isn't a one way. But generally speaking, usually you'll have the leading groups will top.
再说一次 这些都在我的书里 And again, this is all in my book.
有一堆 有一节是关于犯规的领导者和它的这已经被充分解释了 领导者在上行时领先 在下行时也领先 There's a heap, there's a section on foul the leaders and its This is fully explained um, that the leaders lead on the upside, and they also lead on the downside.
所以通常会发生的是 他们会率先领先 他们会引领牛市 然后他们会突破 他们会开始崩溃 进入第三阶段 然后翻盘 落后者会开始进场 你知道 会有相对强度开始降低的股票 或者是那些 你知道 晚到的股票 那就是你知道你进入了后期阶段 So what'll generally happen is they'll lead 1st, and they'll lead the bull market, and then they'll top, and they'll start to buckle and go to Stage three and and roll over, and the laggards will start to come in, and there'll be, you know, stocks that will start to have lower relative strength, or the ones that, you know, were late to the party, and that's when you know you're getting late stage.
嗯 它可以继续 你知道 它可以继续 Um. And it could keep going, you know, it could keep going.
有时它比其他的要长 Sometimes it goes longer than others.
呃 有时它更像镰刀洞而不是世俗 Uh? Sometimes it's more sickle hole than secular.
然后 你知道 这些钱会不停地旋转 然后我就开始防御性地旋转 And then, you know, that money will rotate and rotate, and then I'll start rotating defensively.
他们会开始从落后股进入周期股 或者防御性股票 比如烟草 公用事业 嗯 嗯 你知道 食品股 They'll start going into from the laggards to the cyclicals, or the defensive names, like the tobaccos, utilities, um, um, you know, food stocks.
我们 我们看到了 我们最近看到了 And we, we saw that. We saw that recently.
这是另一个暗示 市场正在变得疲软 That was another tip off that this market was getting getting weak.
我们仍然看到 我们仍然停留在毒品和食品上 所以资金仍然是防御性的 And we're still seeing that we're staying drugs and and food, and so money's still going defensively.
你知道 我们需要一个真正喧闹的球市场 You know, we need to get a really rip roaring ball market.
你知道 我们需要看到增长 You know, we need to see the growth.
我们需要看到盈利股票 真正开始获得一些领导力 而不是恩里科问的防御性领导力 为什么不是 We need to see the the the earnings stocks, and and really start to get some leadership that isn't the defensive leadership Enrico is asking, why you're not
现在鼓励人们做空市场 encouraging people to short the market at the moment?
嗯 嗯 有很多原因 Well, well, there's a number of reasons.
我是说我们已经亏了很多了 I mean that we've already down big.
我的意思是 股票下跌了 你知道 个股下跌了15%到80% I mean, stocks are down, you know, individual stocks are down between 15 80 %.
我已经58岁了 My 58 year old, like, across the board.
我们现在处于一个空荡荡的市场已经很长时间了 We've been in a bare market now for a long, long time.
你知道吗 我确实说过要短一点 就是高潮后的第二天 You know, I-I did suggest as short, it's the day after the high.
不幸的是 我把S-P-Y缩短了 而不是像线索一样的东西 所以 你知道的 S-P-Y 不要在这里提 Unfortunately, I shorted the the S-P-Y instead of something like the cues, so, um, you know, the S-P-Y, don't bring that up here.
就在那天 我发出了一个手机信号 This was the day then I issued a cell signal.
就在第二天 就在这里 Was on this reversal the very next day, right there.
我做空了 我 我做了一个很大的仓位 但是我 我立刻就做了一个很大的仓位 但我记得 我说 我要做这个 I shorted, and I was and I took a huge position, um, but I and, and immediately I was up pretty big, but I-I remember, I said, I'm gonna play this.
要么我被拦下 要么我在这里大获成功 This is either I-I get stopped, or I make a big hit here.
因为我觉得我们正处于巅峰 而我又觉得有很大的下滑 Because I felt like we were topping, and I-I felt like there was a big decline.
所以我希望它只是 你知道 解开 和集会 你知道 控制自己 而不是移动到新的高点 So I was hoping for it to just, you know, unravel, and the and the the rallies to, you know, contain themselves and not moving to new high ground.
但纳斯达克从来没有派出和指控 但我们在这里做了一个小小的假动作 But the NASDAQ never did send and accused in, but we ripped back up here and had a little head fake.
我的错误不是在这里重新做空 可能是在这里 当它开始在这里脱落时 因为这是一个非常非常明显的头部假动作 当它失败时 然后很快就脱落了 My mistake was not re shorting over here, maybe here as it started coming off here, because that was a pretty, pretty clear cut head fake when it failed, and then came back off real quick.
但是 你知道 我通常在骨头市场赚很多钱所以我不需要做空 Um, but, you know, I-I would, I usually make so much money in a bone market that I don't need to short.
真正的答案是 因为第一 我不太擅长这个 And the real, the real answer is, is because number one, I'm not very good at it.
有很多很多的风险 这是不必要的 There's lots and lots of risk, um, and it's unnecessary.
我99 9%的财富都是靠做多头赚来的 You know, I've made 99.9% of my wealth from long only, okay?
我甚至还差了9分11秒 And I was even short on 09:11.
如果你把这些都算进去 嗯 这还不能解释我在股市赚的钱 And and if you even account for that, um, it hasn't accounted for much of what I've made in the stock market.
另一个原因是 现在做空比以往任何时候都更加危险 The other reason is is because shorting now is more dangerous than ever.
我是说 你有没有 你有没有看到GameStop发生的事 I mean, have you, did you see what happened with Game Stop?
当你做空这些名字时 风险是无限的 and these names when you shorting has unlimited risk.
某只股票明天可能会上涨500% A stock could gap up 500% to morrow.
你可能觉得这很荒谬 但是我们 我们 我们已经看到了 And you may think that's ridiculous, but we, we, we've seen that.
这就是可能发生的事情 我是说 同性恋普洛特金更清楚 That what can happen. I mean, gay Plotkin knows better.
他经营着梅尔文资本 世界上最优秀的基金经理之一 来自史蒂夫·科恩的S-A-C资本 他在几天内吸了数十亿美元 因为他做空了 股票对他不利 Who who ran a Melvin Capital, one of the, you know, premier money managers in the world, that came from Stevey cohen's S-A-C capital, and he smoked billions of dollars in in a matter of days because he was short, and the stock went against them.
现在股票可以无限上涨 And now stock can go up unlimited amounts.
我只能下降100% 但它可以上升10000 I can only go down a hundred percent, but it can go up 10000.
没有 这是无穷 所以风险太大了 做空要困难得多 Nope. It's infinity. So there's just too much risk, and shorting is much more difficult.
这是没有必要的 这才是真正的答案 And it's just not necessary. That's the real answer.
这根本没必要 你不需要它 It's just not necessary. You don't need it.
Michael问的是指数和etf由很多股票组成 有些在第二阶段 有些在第四阶段 以及介于两者之间的所有股票 Michael is asking the Indexes and etf's consist of many stocks, some Stage Two, others in Stage Four, and everything in between.
为什么你的系统和供应人的法则仍然适用于指数或室内etf Why does your system and the laws of supplying the man still work for Indexes or indoor ETFS?
好吧 你得重复一遍 Okay, you have to repeat that.
所以我不确定 既然指数和etf由许多股票组成 有些是阶段性的 在所有四个阶段中都是如此 为什么你的法则体系和供求法则仍然适用于指数和etf So I'm not sure. Being that Indexes an ets consists of many stocks, some in stage, in all four stages, why does your system of laws and the laws of supply demand still work for indexes and etfs?
我不知道 我没有索引和E-T-F的系统 所以我甚至不知道那是什么意思 I don't know. I don't have a system for indexes and E-T-F, so I don't even know what that means.
我对股票有一套系统 I have A-I have a system for stocks.
我是说 你多久看到我交易etf一次 So, um, I mean, how how often do you see me trading ETFS?
你知道吗 如果我们再次回到过去 回到我40年的职业生涯 然后说 你的财富有多少来自ETF和指数 它可能接近于零 你知道 相对于个人股票的收益 You know? And And if we were to go back once again, to go back in my 40 year career and say, how much of your wealth was made from ETF and indexes, it would probably be close to zero, you know, relative to what has been made in individual stocks.
我的意思是 为什么它能起作用 So, I mean, why does it work?
因为趋势就是趋势 I mean, because trends are trends.
意思是 你会有 嗯 你知道 市场不是完全有效的 他们是 你它不是完全随机的 它只是简单的趋势跟随 Mean, you're gonna have, um, you know, the market is not perfectly efficient, and they're and, you it's not totally random and and it's just simple trend following.
所以我不确定你的问题中可能有比我没有提到的更多的含义 为此道歉 但是 再次强调 我并不是真的想要计算索引的时间 So I'm not sure maybe there's a more of a meaning in your question than I'm not addressing, and apologize for that, but, um, again, I'm not really trying to time indexes.
如果我是 这是一个结果 就像我之前说的 这是我对个股的看法的结果 If I am, it's, it's a result, like I said before, it's a result of what I'm saying with the individual stocks.
是的 指数是由股票组成的 但这些指数的比例非常小 And yes, the indexes are made up of stocks, but the indexes are a very narrow portion
的 即使是最广泛的指数 或者 你知道 一些 你知道 标准普尔500指数 of that. Even the widest indexes, or, you know, some some, you know, the of S-P 500,
在纳斯达克 有8000个高交易量的股票 总共有10到12000个 甚至更多 the NASDAQ, there's 8000 names that are highly traded, and there's ten or 12000 names total, or even more.
嗯 所以 你知道 当你看到一个500指数是等待上限的 而道指是等待价格的 那不是 Um. So, you know, when you're looking at an index of 500 that are cap waited and the Dow was price waited, that doesn't
代表市场 这不是市场 represent the market whatsoever. That's not the market.
我认为公平地说 即使在一个有20或30个名字的ETF中 也有买家和卖家 这是你的供求动态 I think it's also fair to say, even in an ETF with 20 or 30 names in there, there is the buyers in the sellers, which is your supply and demand dynamic.
正在评估他们作为一个整体 在领域 当然 爱供应的人是痛苦的-适用于何氏口角的方式 Are evaluating them as a whole, in areas that, of course, love supplying the man being afflic- applicable to He tiffs that way.
供给人的墙适用于一切事物 The wall supplying the man is applies to everything.
我的意思是 不管它是一篮子股票 还是一只个股 它都会 你知道 当你得到一篮子股票时 你只是在平滑 你知道 价格行为 因为你会有一个上升 一个下降 你会在两边得到平滑效果 I mean, it doesn't, there doesn't matter of whether it's in basket of stocks, or if it's an individual stock, it's going to a you know, you're just, when you get a basket, you're just smoothing out, you know, the price behavior, because you're gonna have one up, one down, and you're gonna get a smoothing effect on both sides.
但这并不意味着法律的价格 你知道的 爱供给男人 不生效 But it doesn't mean that the law price, you know, the love supplying the man, isn't, uh in force.
乔治在9月19日购买的O-R-A上询价 他想要 止损处使用了我们正在出售的低价 但是 是的 9月6日的低价 90 80美元 是我们要停止使用的价格 George is asking on O-R-A, which was purchased on september 19, he wanted, and the stop was using the low of uh that we're selling in, but, yeah, the low of September six, $90.80, was to stop we use.
他在问 如果使用9月14日的低点作为94 11美元的止损位 是否会太紧 He's asking if it would have been too uh tight to be using the low of september 14 as the stop of $94.11.
好的 第二 那将是 嗯 那将不是 我的意思是 那将是 嗯使用主元的低点 你知道的 Well, two, that would have been, well, that would not really, I mean, that would have been, um using the low in the pivot, you know.
所以我有时会这样做 So that I'll sometimes do that.
有时我会交错止损 或者我卖低价 然后卖低价 比如在这里 Sometimes I'll do, I'll do a staggered stop, or I'll sell the low the pivot, and then the low, like sometimes down here.
底部较低的距离是12%10%或12% And low in the base is 12% away, ten or 12 %.
我不想承受那么大的损失 但我还是想留在股票上 给它一些空间 给它所有的空间 And I don't want to take that big of a of a loss, but I still, but I want to stay in the stock, give it some room, and give it all that room.
所以我将在主轴以下停止 也许这是4% 这是12% 现在这是16 So I'll stop out below the pivot of saying, maybe this is 4 %, and this is 12 %, and now that's 16.
平均8% And it averages eight per cent.
现在 如果你想成为 你知道 听着 我不介意你有超紧的刹车 Now, if you want to be, you know, look, I have no problem with you having super tight stops.
你必须得出结论 你知道 是什么阻碍了交易 有时就是数学主题 You have to come to the conclusion though, of what is, you know, what's choking off the trade, and that sometimes is the math thematic.
就像在一些市场一样 这可能太紧了 Like in some markets, this might be too tight.
在其他市场 股票只是在运作 它们就会立即起飞 这可能是完美的 你知道 只要保持非常紧 In other markets, where stocks are just working and they just take right off, it might be perfect, you know, just keep it real tight.
所以你必须衡量它 So you have to gauge that.
这就是我们要股票反馈的原因 对吧 That's why we go stocks feedback, right?
我们有 我们 你知道 我们要 我们要把这些策略应用到这些股票上 然后得到反馈 We got, we're, you know, we're gonna, we're gonna apply stocks, ply, the tactics to the stocks, and get the feedback.
但是 不要 太紧了 Um, but again, no, too tight.
不 不要太紧 但是 但是 你知道 你可以混合它 你知道 给它更多的空间 仍然 仍然得到一个平均值 No, not too tight. But, but, you know, you could blend it, you know, and give it a little bit more room and still, and still end up with an average.
这是一个可以接受的风险 但你只会交易更多 That is a acceptable risk, but you're just going to trade more.
如果你走得太紧 你会做更多的交易 因为 你知道 价格更接近 所以你会更经常被止损 If, if you go real tight, you're gonna do more trading, because, you know, the price is closer, so you're gonna get stopped out more often.
这是你必须决定的另一件事 你是否想要这样做 你知道 那些额外的工作 如果它值得 如果它真的有回报 如果 如果风险收紧 风险是有回报的 或者如果它扼杀了你的机会 And that's another thing that you have to decide whether you want to do that, you know, that added work, and if it's worth it, if it's actually paying off, if, though, if that risk tightening, that risk is paying off, or if it's choking off your opportunity.
这些都是 你知道 对于每个叛徒来说都是独一无二的 Now, these are all things that are, you know, somewhat unique to each traitor.
你知道 因为我现在就可以告诉你 我现在就可以平仓 全年都可以平仓 You know, because I could tell you right now, I could put out now, put our trades all year long.
当你看到这里的100个成员时 你会发现你看到了100种不同的策略被部署的方式 You go, when you look at a hundred uh members here, and you're going to find that you're seeing a hundred different ways that the strategy is being, uh, deployed.
会有 会有一百个人犯一百种不同的错误 不同的名字 不同的时间 There will be, there will be a hundred people doing a hundred different mistakes, and, uh, different names, different times.
嗯 你知道 这是一个 基于餐厅的交易安置有很多个性 Um, you know, it's a, there's a lot of individuality to trading placement based on restaurants.
奥斯卡问的是 不管我们是在牛市还是熊市 你如何解释个股在交易日的扭曲成交量应该比正常水平高得多 Oscar is asking, no matter we are in bo or bear market in general, how do you interpret the distorted volume of individual stocks on quad wetching day as should be a lot higher than normal.
他不知道吗 是的 你会明白的 And he's not knowing? Yeah, you will get that.
而且 你知道 某些名字 你会得到 And, you know, certain names, you'll get that.
这必须要和一个有重大攻击行为的人一起接受 And that's gonna have to be taken with someone of a grand assault.
你知道 你必须意识到 是的 会有 嗯 你知道 当股票被添加到沙沙2000或添加到标准普尔500 当有 你知道 三比特 在四分之一天 你会得到 你知道 增加交易量 You know, you have to realize that, yes, there's gonna be, um, you know, when stocks are added to the Rustle 2000 or added to the S-P 500, when there's, you know, a triple bit, which in quadwitching day, you're gonna get, you know, elevated volume.
所以 是的 你要考虑到这一点 So, um, yeah, you're gonna take that into consideration.
但是 你知道 一天不是现在 你不会根据一天的行为 一天的交易量来判断一只股票 如果从整体来看 以及正在发生的事情 But, you know, one day isn't now, you're not going to judge a stock on one day of action, one day of a volume as to be, if to look at the overall picture and what's going on.
所以有一天 嗯 它永远不会是一个 你知道 一个 你知道 一个时期 我将做出我唯一的决定 在9月16日到期 有很大的交易量 但价格波动很小 对吧 So that one day, well, it's never going to be a, you know, one, um, you know, one period that's going I'm going to make my sole decision on erencing september 16, having huge volume, but a very little price movement, right?
是啊 就是这样 有 你知道 有1格 嗯 在你没有多少价格的一天 Yeah, well, there you go. There's, you know, there's 1 bar there, um, on a day where you didn't have much price.
我是说 那真的只是 那对我和你来说都不是什么大事 I mean, that really just just, that's just a non events for me, you
你甚至没有看到任何价格变动 所以价格一直很紧 know, you didn't even get any price movement, so it stayed tight.
你没活力了 有点让人心烦 You out of liveline was a bit of churning.
现在你要 你知道 你要看着它 看它是否紧 And now you gotta, you know, you're just gonna watch it to see if it stays tight.
它爆发了 你知道 几天后 有一个坏的衣服 你得到了你的最低点 它开始违反 It broke out, you know, a couple of days later, and had a bad clothes reversed, and you got your lower lows, and it started hitting violation.
现在 不管这个体积大小 同样的事情发生了 So now, the same thing happened regardless of this volume.
一切都像往常一样发生了 Everything happened exactly like what would normally happen.
股票收紧了 它爆发了 The stock tightened up, it broke out.
现在你要看视频了 Now you've got to watch it as a video.
我们要么发现违规行为 要么得到确认 We get violations or we get confirmations.
嗯 我们立即得到了一个深蹲 然后立即交易 并收于20以下 Well, we immediately got a squat, and then immediately it trade and close below the 20.
现在你有三个更低的 And now you got three lower lows.
现在你有四个更低的低点 低于50 Now you got four lower lows, it's below the 50.
现在所有的违规行为都堆积起来了 Now all the violations are piling up.
就是这样 这就是你需要知道的 That's it. That's all you need to know.
Eric问为什么只在基地内进行拉回 甚至在他们分手后也没有 Eric is asking Why or pullebacks done only within the base, and not even after they break up?
撤退 只有在他们在基地的时候 在它从基地爆发出来之后 Er pullback bys, only while they're in the base, after it has broken out from the base.
我从没说过你不能买它当它从花瓶里摔出来后 你可以在杆子上咬我们一口回到破洞里 Well, I-I never said you can't buy it when it after it is broken out from a vase, you can bite us on a pole back to the breakout.
但我更希望你 如果你在关注股票 你会在它回到突破之前看到突破 But I would prefer you're gonna, if you're watching the stock, you're gonna see the breakout before it pulls back to the breakout.
所以如果你要看到第一个你知道 我为什么要看 So if you're gonna see that 1st you know, it's like, why would I?
为什么我要在5楼等着上电梯 而我站在3楼 电梯必须从我身边经过 Why would I wait to get on the elevator, you know, on the 5th floor, when I'm standing on the 3rd floor, and the elevator has to go by me?
所以我要试着在它爆发的时候上去 So I'm going to try to get on when it's breaking out.
现在 由于某种原因 我没有或者我有多发性硬化症 Now, for some reason, I don't or I MS.
如果它拉回突破点 嗯 是的 只要它不是很大 你知道 它从突破点上升了20% 然后在两天内一路下跌 那就不是回拉 it if it pulls back to the breakout, well, yes, as long as it's not some big, you know, it goes up 20% from the breakout and it comes crashing all the way back down in two days, that wouldn't be a pull back.
那将是严重违规行为 That would be A-A major violation.
所以 嗯 不过没错 你可以买个泳池回来 So, um. But yeah, you can buy in a pool back to the breakup.
但我不继续买入的原因是 当它们从基数扩大时 风险就会增加 But the reason why I don't buy em further than that is because, while they get extended from the base, they become riskier.
嗯 在此基础上 你可以得到更宽的价格翼 这仍然是正常的 Um, based on that, you can get wider price wings that are still normal.
但是 你知道 我们我们无法确定股票是否表现正常 不正常 因为更大的价格波动在那一点上是正常的 那将是太大的波动 But, you know, we we wouldn't be able to ascertain if the stock is acting normal, abnormal, because wider price uh swings would be normal at that point, and that would be too much volatility.
会把我打晕的 现在 当你在底部时 枪托仍然表现正常 你从右边的紧枢轴点向上 从低脸颊到拉回 我知道它应该做什么 Would knock me out. And now the stock, the stock's still acting normal when you're in the base, and you're coming from those tight pivot points up that right side, from a low cheek to cheat handle from a pullback, I know what it should do.
你知道什么是正常的吗 不正常的是火车准点进站 You know what's normal? What's abnormal is the train coming in on schedule.
这一切都是为了有参照点 This is all about having reference points.
看 当你有了参照点 你知道会发生什么 See, when you have the reference points and you know what to expect.
这是尼尔说的另一件事 This is another thing that o Neil said.
他说 你不需要知道股票的走势 你只需要知道它过去的走势 He said, you don't have to know where stocks going, you just have to know where it's been.
这句话是我翻译的 对我来说价值数千万美元 因为我的整个职业生涯都是靠这句话建立起来的 That was a sentence that I interpreted and has become was worth tens of millions of dollars to me, because my I made an entire career off of that.
这就是 这意味着 通过知道这里的情况 比如这个 这个 这个条件 股票翻倍的情况 这就是一场大博弈 And And that is that, what that means is is that, by knowing this set up right here, say this, this, this condition here, where the stock doubles, it makes A-A power play.
好吧 从那里爆发 Okay? From there it breaks out.
我知道它应该做什么 I know what this should do.
好吧 如果这种情况很可能让我赚钱 我知道它应该怎么做 我也知道在这种情况下什么是不正常的 Okay, if this is a situation that's probistic to make me money, I know what it should do, and I know what would be abnormal from this set of circumstances.
现在 如果你只是随机地把我放在这张图的某个地方然后说 好吧 让我们把它放在这里 这不会意味着同样的事情 因为它不是在那种情况下 Now, if you just randomly stick me somewhere in this chart and just say, okay, let's just pump stick that right here, that's not gonna mean the same thing, because it's not under that set of circumstances.
这些情况与趋势有关 基础 轴心点 从左到右的紧度 VCP 体积 所有这些都达到了顶点 And those set of circumstances have to do with the trend, the base, the, you know, the the pivot point, the tightness from left to right, the VCP, the volume, all that culminates.
这就是为什么我叫它比能量点分析 因为所有这些因素都归结到一个特定的终点 某一天 这就是股票应该做X的一天 如果没有 那么它应该做这个 如果没有 它应该做这个 So that that's why I call it specific energy point analysis, because it's all these factors that come down to a specific end point that one day, that is the day that the stock should do X, and if it doesn't, well, then it should do this, and if it doesn't, it should do this.
我知道在这种情况下会发生什么 因为我研究这些参考点已经很久了 And I know what to expect under those conditions, because I've studied those reference points for so long.
凯尼尔问我 感觉如何 Kay neel's asking, how did it feel?
当你从几年的挣扎到几年的成绩达到三位数的时候 你是什么感觉 How did it 1st feel when you went from struggling for years to having multiple triple digit years?
就像最后不会那样 就像 就像 我自己掐了一下 然后然后 你知道的 我一直问他 我幸运吗 Um, like it wasn't gonna at last, like, like, I had a pinch myself, and and, uh, you know, and keep asking him, am I lucky?
还是我的行动 我真的有什么技巧吗 or doing my action? Do I actually have some skill here?
这是我能做的吗 Is this something that I can do?
你知道 反复 当我做得越来越多之后 我意识到我可以做到 You know, repeatedly. And then after I did it more and more and more, I realized that I could and that.
然后我也意识到 你知道 一定会有一段时间 你知道 我 我 我放松下来 我就做不下去了 And then I realized also that, you know, there were, there had to be periods where, you know, I-I-I laid back and I wasn't going to be able to do it.
但这只是一部分 But that was part of it.
我是取得这些成果的一部分 有一段时间我没有取得成果 I was part of getting to those results, was having periods where I didn't get results.
但这感觉很奇怪 因为我从小就很穷 你知道 当我刚出生时 我不确定我是否值得成功 So, but it felt very strange, because I grew up poor, you know, and I didn't, wasn't, wasn't sure if I deserved success when I 1st my
第一个账户 达到了100万美元 当我从2000美元开始时 我有100万美元现金 account, 1st, reached a million dollars, and I had a million dollars cash when I start off with $2000.
你知道 对我来说 那是一个非常 非常奇怪的地方 You know, to me, that was a very, that was a very odd place to be.
非常非常嗯 你知道吗 我我母亲甚至很难接受 这些事情 甚至连她自己都不相信 她儿子不可能做这些事 Very, very um. You know, my my mother had a hard time even accepting, you know, these things, and didn't, even didn't even believe it herself, you know, that her son could be no doing this.
因为 你知道 我们有贫穷的心态 Because, again, we, you know, have poverty mentality.
这是一个很大的挑战 So that that was a big challenge.
约瑟夫问你是如何为你的头脑基金筹集资金的 Joseph asking How did you manage to raise capital for your heads fund?
你们收到过很多通过美国管理资金的请求吗 Did you get a lot of request to manage money through the US?
我明白了 嗯 我不记得了 嗯 说实话 你知道 我有 呃 在我赢得美国会议之后 在我赢得美国投资锦标赛之前 我做得非常好 I see, um, I don't remember, huh, to be honest with you, you know, I had, uh, after I won the US meeting, before I won the US Investing championship, I was doing really great.
有人想让我管理他们的资金 但我只在对冲基金管理过很短的一段时间 UM And I had people wanting me to manage their money, but I only managed money in hedge fund for a very short period of time.
嗯 你知道 我 我 我 那不是很多钱 嗯 那时候我有一段时间 我管理过 5000万 1亿 那真的 相对于 你知道 对冲基金行业非常小 Um, so, you know, I-I-I, and it wasn't a lot of money, um, I had times back then, and I was managing at one time, 50 million, a hundred million, there was really, relative to, you know, hedge fund industry that was very small.
即使在当时的今天 它也会 你知道的 微小的 嗯 你知道的 我的 我的 我的 Even back then today, it would be, you know, microscopic, um, you know, my, my, my, uh, my, my.
现在个人的仓位比我管理对冲基金时的仓位还要大 Personal positions now are bigger than the positions I took when I was managing a hedge fund.
所以 但是 嗯 我不 你不太记得了 So, but, um, yeah, I don't, you don't remember exactly.
我的意思是 我也有一些名人 我为他们管理资金 嗯 但是 是的 但是我没有 我从来没有想过管理他们 I mean, there was, I had some celebrities too that were that I managed money for, um, and, but, yeah, but I didn't use the, I never wanted to manage one.
我从没想过要干这行 I never even wanted to be in this business.
我有个人 我的一个朋友 他看到我在做什么 他向我咨询 我给了他一些建议 我告诉他我在U外科还有一些名字 安进 I-I had, I had a someone who, a friend of mine, who saw what I was doing, and he asked for some advice, and I gave him some advice, and I told him I had him by U Surgical and, um, a few names, amgen.
他的账户在三四个月的时间里翻了一番 他来找我 他说 哇 你能一直这么做吗 And he doubled his account in like, I think it was like three or four months, and he came to me, he goes, wow, can you do this all the time?
我只是 我不知道 我不确定我是否能一直这样做 And I just like, I don't know, I'm not sure if I can do this all the time.
他说 嗯 你知道吗 我们需要 我们需要卖出去 And he said, well, you know what, we need to, we need to sell this.
我们需要 你知道 要么管理人们的钱 We need to, you know, either manage people's money.
我说 我不想和那有任何关系 And I said, I don't want anything to do with that.
我只是 这就是我炒股的原因 I just, that's why I'm stock trading.
我不想那样做 I don't want to do that.
我只想做个股票交易员 I want to just be a stock trader.
用我自己的钱 不用算 Just trade my own money, Don't mac count.
你知道 那是我的梦想 所以我说 如果你能得到这些客户 让我选股票 那很好 You know, that's my dream. So I said, if you can get those clients and you just let me pick stocks, that's fine.
我的第一个verm就是这样开始的 我们开始获得机构客户 并开始为他们提供建议 And that's what started my 1st verm, and we started getting institutional clients and started advising them.
几年后 我在乔治·索罗斯的A-A集团工作 And years later, I was vice I was vicing George soros's A-A group.
然后 再一次 即使是资金管理 我在纽约有一个团队 你知道 想让我管理资金 他们向我推销 我最后做了 后悔了 So and then, again, even with the the money management, I had a group in New York that, you know, wanted me to manage money, and they pitched me on it, and I ended up doing it and regretting it.
但是 嗯 是的 我在这行 But, um, so yeah, it's, uh, I was in the business.
在相对较短的一段时间内 As far as that's concerned for a relatively short period of time.
红色的问题是 你今天会买收益率这么高的1年期或2年期国债吗 Red is asking, would you buy one or two year long treasuries with such yields today?
嗯 那真的取决于你对什么感到满意 你知道 你的那真的取决于你的情况 你知道 Well, that that really depends on what you're happy with, you know, with your That really depends on your situation, you know.
我的意思是 如果你有足够的钱 那么回报率 无论是4%还是5% 都可以让你保持你的生活方式 而且你还有足够的钱来交易和做其他事情 I mean, uh, if you had, you know, enough money, that that rate of return, whether it's four or 5 %, could keep you in your lifestyle, and you still had enough money left over to to trade and do other things.
这可能是有道理的 你知道 嗯 你知道 如果 这真的取决于你在看什么 我不能说 你知道 国债在这里很好 而且 你知道 嗯 你知道 百分之四的最高 And it might make sense, you know, um, you know, if, uh, it really depends on what you're looking I-I can't say that, you know, treasuries are great by here, and, you know, um, you know, four percents the top.
据我所知 到明年可能会达到8% And it's not really only It could be at 8% for all I know, by next year.
所以我看起来永远不会买国债或者把钱锁起来因为我推测那是顶部 So I would never look like I would never buy a treasury or lock my money up because I was speculating that that was the top.
我会这么做 因为这个利率就像抵押贷款一样 I would do it because that rate just like a mortgage.
嗯 你知道 我永远不会接受抵押贷款 Um, you know, I would never take a mortgage.
我没有抵押贷款 我我从来没有为自己的房子抵押过 但我有过几次 I don't have a mortgage, and I I've never had a mortgage on my own personal home, but I've had a couple.
投资房产 但我绝对不会 Investment properties, but I would never
因为我对利率进行了投机 take a mortgage because I was speculating on the rate.
我会选择抵押贷款 因为这个数字对我来说是合理的 I would take a mortgage because that payment in that number makes sense to me.
即使它涨得更高或更低 我也很高兴 And even if it goes higher or lower, I'm happy.
我对这个支付很满意 你知道 这个指标 I'm happy at that payment, and that, you know, that metric.
所以这就是你必须根据你的满意程度来判断的地方 So that's where you have to judge that based on what you are happy with.
而且 And also,
你知道 这里的锁 如果你需要这笔钱 你知道 做其他事情 或者交易 你知道 这是你必须决定的 you know, the lock up here, if you're going to need that money, you know, for something else, or for trading, you know, that that's what you have to decide.
我真的不能替你决定 我不知道 马克 你的指控是否要追溯到1997年的那段时间 I-I really cannot decide that for you, um, I don't know, mark, if your charge would go back to then, 1997 time period.
他们是 是的 这取决于我们在看什么 They were, yeah, depending on what, what, what are we looking at?
CallCome 是的 我不知道它是不是不在这里 但是是的 我们应该可以 我喜欢这个 Call Come, yeah, I don't see if itself isn't here, but yeah, we should be able to, I like this.
是的 97年 帕文试图问一个问题 在课本上 Yep. 97. So Pavine is trying to ask a question that he textbook later.
这看起来就像你在当前环境下看到的许多股票一样 在当前环境下 被引领到大领导者的环境中 This looks like many of the stocks that you have seen in, you know, in the in the current environment, that were led up to the current environment of the big leaders.
问题来了 这里有三个垒 So here's the question. There's three bases here.
97年6月至12月的第一基地 1st base from June 97 to December 97.
所以是97 实际上 我在99年 所以97年6月 So we're 97. Actually, I'm in 99, so June 97.
这是97 97年6月 This is 97, right here. June 97.
跟随你 在我看来 这不是很好的基底 Follow you. This doesn't look at very good base to me.
这些参照 这个案例发生在这里 And these referencing, um, this case has happened way over here.
这是你进入第二阶段上升趋势的地方 This is where you get into a stage two up trend.
这是你开始记垒的地方 This is where you start getting the bases.
他引用了比尔·尼尔斯对高通的周线图的分析 显示了书中的第一个基数 So he's referencing Bill Neels an analysis of qualcomm on a weekly chart, showing the 1st base in the book.
97年6月至97年12月因故障瓶出现故障 June 97 to December 97 was faulty due to a trouble bottle.
98年6月至98年10月的第2个基准面也出现了问题 原因是大部分价格走势都在基准面底部 The 2nd base, june 98 to October 98 was faulty as well, due to the majority of the price action at the bottom of the base.
然而 第3个基地 90年10月至99年4月 他认为比尔尼尔的一个好基地 However, the 3rd base, october 90 to April 99, he Bill Neil considered a good base.
他的问题是 对于这两个标志 第3个基准点看起来是不是也有问题 因为大多数价格行为都发生在基准点的底部 His question is, for both marks, doesn't the 3rd base look faulty as well, since the majority of the price action happened at the bottom of the base?
好吧 首先 我要 我要比较一下 Okay, well, 1st of all, um, I would have to, I would want to compare this.
不好意思 我喉咙痒了 I'm sorry, I got a tickle on my throat here.
天啊 我应该带些水的 Oh my God, I should have bought some water with me.
这让我想起了 巨浪·尼尔 事件 Um, so just reminded me of a Billow Neil incident.
不胡扯 以前在金融新闻网上有 投资者商业每日秀 No Baloney. Used to have the Investors Business Daily Show on the Financial News Network.
你们中的一些人可能像我一样老 所以记得 Some of you might be ancient enough like me so to remember that.
但他生病了 他继续 他上了节目 咳嗽发作了 持续了大约 真的 大约2分钟 感觉就像2小时 他只是保持沉默 他从来没有切换到广告 But he had, he was sick, and he went on, he went on the air and had a coughing attack that lasted for like, literally, like 2 min It just, it felt like it was 2 h He just kept quiet, and he never cut to a commercial.
那是因为我为他感到难过 That was I felt so bad for him.
但现在的我就是这样 98年10月到99年4月 But that's me right now. Um, october 98 to April 99.
是的 他在问那是不是我们的客户 Yeah, he's, he's asking if that would be our client.
Ravine问你或Mark 我们认为这是错误的 因为大部分的价格行为 Ravine is asking if you or Mark, we consider that to be faulty due to majority of the price action.
快乐底部的基地 类似于前两个基地 Happy at the bottom of the base, similar to the 1st two bases.
好吧 你还没有 你还没有进入升压 Well, you don't, you don't get into an uptrin here yet.
但你也会想要衡量 看 这是市场的底部 But you would also want to measure, see, this was the bottom in the market right here.
这是 这是一般市场 在右下方 This is, this was where, this was the general market, bottom right here.
这是一个非常严重的下降 And this was a very severe decline.
第一个测量 看 事情没那么简单 So let's 1st measure. See, it's not that simple.
我们必须 我们必须 We have to, we have to.
这都是相对的 所以这个想法在一次非常残酷的调整中下降了40% 然后在短短几周内就出现了 It's all relative. So this thought came off about 40% during a very brutal uh correction, then came within just a couple weeks.
一 二 三 四周之内 它几乎达到了一个新的高点 One, two, three. Within four weeks, it was almost at new high Ground.
然后又漂回来了 现在你出现了 Then it drifted back here. Now you're turning up.
这是一个早期的转折 如果你在一个趋势模板中运行 这个会在一个月出现 This is an early turn. This would come up on if you were running in a trend template back then this would come up on the one month.
这将是一个早期的转折 所以它还没有真正开始 This would be an early turn, so it didn't really get going yet.
但是 你知道 我是不会参演的 But, um, you know, I would not be in it.
我可能记得 那时候我还没参与 I may remember, back then, I wasn't in this.
我后来在高通 在它上升之后 它有了一些势头 我交易了它很多次 I was in, I was in Qualcomm later, when up here, after it, it got some momentum, and I traded it a bunch of times.
但是这里的橡木 你有一个很大的底座 Um, but oak down here, you've got a big base here.
这将会是斯坦·韦恩斯坦的第一阶段 或者马克·米涅文尼的 你知道 早期的转折 这是很好的 This would be, you know, a Stan Weinstein stage one, um, or a Mark Minerveni, you know, early turn here, and it's traitable.
但是看看周报 你知道 就在2月22日那一周 这是你想进入的地方 But looking at the weekly, you know, right here on that week of february 22, is where you want to be entering it.
而且 你知道 我们现在看的是后见之明 所以很明显你会说 嗯 当然 你知道 这就是它起飞的地方 And, you know, we're looking at hindsight now, so it's obvious you go, well, of course, you know, that's where it takes off.
但是看看它 这是你的大VCP 你在右边收紧 But look at it. That's your big VCP, where you tighten up on the right side.
看看最近两周的情况 And look at those last two weeks right there.
看看周报 And look and look on the weekly.
往下看 你可以看到这个量 在它起飞前的最后一周 Come down here, you see that volume right there, that last week before it takes off.
右边的体积是最小的 The volume is the lowest that it's happening in that right side.
交易量非常低 大约是每周平均交易量的一半 Very low volumes, about half of the average weekly volume.
所以即使是体积也有这样的特征 你有一个大而长的底 你有右边 So even the the volume has that characteristic, you have that big, long base, and you've got that right side.
这就是我的样子 你知道 如果我如果我要把它换掉 So that's how I would look the time that, you know, if I if I was going to trade that, um.
但是 呃 至于 你知道的 呃 至于它在底部很低 我甚至不确定我们可以参考那里 But, uh, as far as, you know, the the, uh, the as far as it being low in the base, I'm not even sure we can referring to there.
价格走势主要是在底部 这是philneil对前两个底部的评估 The price action being predominantly at the low of the base, is what phil neil's assessment was for the 1st two bases.
为什么 Why
它们有问题吗 不 如果可以的话 我还有一个问题要问 they were faulty? No. I also did have a quick follow question if you can
回答为什么三个底部的底座通常是有问题的底座 就像第一个 从97年6月到97年12月中午 answer why base with three bottoms is usually a faulty base, like the 1st one, from June of 97 to December by noon of 97.
所以你在问一些我不关心的问题 就像你在问比尔·尼尔一样 So you're, you're asking questions of things that don't matter to me, like you're asking you need to ask Bill o Neil.
你要我回答比尔尼尔的分析 You're asking me to answer Bill o Neil analysis.
这就是错误 So that, right there is just faulty.
我不能回答 我不能回答比尔·奥尼尔的问题 I can't answer. I can't answer for Bill O'neil.
我就不去看了 它跌了三次底 And I don't get into looking that it came, it bottomed three times.
这对我来说没有任何意义 It doesn't mean anything to me.
我在看股票是否横向移动和盘整 I'm looking that did the stock move sideways and consolidate?
好吧 是吗 相对强度是多少 Okay, is it? What's the relative strength?
索德林在这里有相对的实力 但我愿意打赌 你知道 在右边 这种相对的实力是相当高的 Soderin have the relative strength here, but I will be willing to bet that, you know, coming up this right side, this relative strength was pretty hikes.
我记得高通 这么高的相对实力 收紧了 I remember Qualcomm, so high relative strength, tightening up.
我在寻找上trans的VCPS 最好是有收益和正确的数量动态 所以 你知道 你可以回到这里 看看所有这些噪音 并试图确定 呃 我不会咬这里 因为它跌了三倍 直到它的低点 I'm looking for VCPS in uptrans, preferably with earnings and the right volume dynamics, so, you know, you can go back here and look at all this noise and try to ascertain, uh, I'm not going to bite here, because it came down three times to its low.
对我来说 这太愚蠢了 但你知道 如果这对你或对比尔·奥尼尔有用 好吧 但对我来说没有任何意义 To me, that's moronic. But you know that if that works for you or works for Bill O'neil, fine, but that doesn't mean anything to me.
我的意思是 这里有一个空市场 在一个周期性熊市中 就在这里 I mean, you had a, you had a bare market here, in a cyclical bear market, right here.
这只是在这个大图表上画了一个小点 And this just put a little blip within this big chart.
我说的小波动 我的意思是 相对而言 这只是一个大的横向动作 And I say a little blip, I mean, relatively speaking, this is just one big sideways action.
现在 这是第一批从空旷的市场中走出的股票之一 开始突破新的高点 And now this is one of the 1st stocks coming out of that bare market to start breaking into new high ground.
嗯嗯 所以我 你知道 这就是为什么它是一个领导者 Uh Um. So I, you know, that's why it was a leader.
你知道 这里有所有的领导特征 You know, this had all the leadership characteristics right here.
所以你看 与其回头看 为什么它在这个时候不起作用 为什么你不担心为什么它在这个时候起作用 So you see, instead of looking back here, why it didn't work at this time, why don't you worry about why it worked on this time?
你知道吗 我的意思是 这个结论除了让你知道 不会让你得到任何东西 You know? I mean this, this conclusions aren't going to lead you to anything except knowing.
这就像一个高尔夫球手 你知道 让我看看那些糟糕的高尔夫球手 然后弄清楚为什么他们那么糟糕 That's like being a golfer and say, you know, let me watch all these crappy golfers and figure out why they're so shitty that.
这对你有什么好处 What does that do for you?
它什么都不做 从这里看看它为什么能起作用 It doesn't do anything. How about look at why it worked from here?
对吧 这里就是它起飞的地方然后向上爆炸 Right? From here is where it just took off and just exploded to the upside.
我想知道为什么在这里能成功 I want to know why did it work from here?
从这个角度看 它是什么样子的 我怎么才能进入飞船呢 What did it look like from this point, and how do I get on board there?
我觉得 你该去找比尔·欧·顿谈谈 因为我很确定你 你和比尔·欧奈尔有点 你知道 错过了什么 他可能 我看过他把人钉死在十字架上 And I think, you know, you need to talk to Bill o Meal, because I'm pretty sure that you're, you're somewhat, you know, missing something with Bill onel Um, and he'd probably, uh, I've seen him crucify people.
如果你这样想 我就会跳到别人身上 你们刚才看到BillO neil了 如果你们有机会和BillO neil聊上一段时间 天哪 If you think that, I hop on people, you guys just seen Bill O'neil, and if you ever had a chance to talk with Bill o Neil for a length of time, for holy cow.
嗯 不管怎样 让我们继续 因为我们已经做了很多了 Um. So anyway, let's move on, because we be laboring this quite a bit.
嗯 在剩下的几分钟里看看最后几个问题 Um. Just look at a few last questions here the few minutes left.
但亨利问 你能详细说明一下你的周末安排吗 But henry's asking, can you please elaborate on your weekend routine?
你做扫描 马库斯·史密斯可能会想出30个左右的名字 You do scans, and Marcus Smith may be come up with 30 names or so.
你如何决定哪些名字进入焦点名单 How do you determine which names go on to focus list?
你看这30个都有提醒 You watch these 30 all with alerts.
你怎么把这些名字移进来 How do you shift these names in?
又一次 你把话强加给我 或者说 你知道的 30个名字 Once again, you're, you're putting words in my mouth, or putting, you know, yeah, 30 names.
我不知道你是怎么想到这30个名字的 I don't know where you come up with this 30 names, um?
所以我会想出数百个名字 你知道 然后将它们归结为任何处于可行位置的名字 所以那可能是我们在重点名单上有70个名字 之前被称为维尔恩 这真的会决定我们是否积极 如果有可行的商品 So that I'll come up with hundreds of names, you know, and then will boil them down to whatever is in viable position, so that and that could be we've had 70 names on focus list, which was previously called viler Um, and that is really what is going to determine whether we're getting aggressive or not, if there's viable merchandise.
现在 你走进商店 不 货架上有一大堆鸡蛋 Now, you go into the store, no, there's a whole bunch of, you know, eggs on the shelf.
你可以选择买哪种鸡蛋 你可以买价格最低的 也可以买价格最高的有机鸡蛋 You have a choice of which eggs to buy, you know, when you might buy the lowest price, the highest ones that are organic.
你有自己的购买标准 对吧 And you have got your criteria for which ones you're gonna buy, right?
这里也是一样的 So it's the same thing here.
我在看有多少商品可供出售 I'm looking at how much merchandise is available.
我买这些商品的标准是什么呢 Okay, so what's my criteria for which which one of these stocks I buy this merchandise?
我的标准是那些A-V-C-P结构和第一爆发的 Well, my criteria is the ones that are set up in A-V-C-P and break out 1st.
就是这么简单 你知道 最先建立和出现的股票是我的资本 It's pretty much that simple. You know, the stocks that are set up and emerge 1st are the ones that get my capital.
这些在我的书里都有解释 And again, this is all explained in my book.
这些 这些年表 所有这些都在我的书里 This, this chronology and all this is all in my book.
嗯 非常非常详细 Um. So in very, very in a lot of detail.
嗯 所以 你知道筛选 我运行筛选 然后我想出了一个以碱基命名的列表 Um. So, you know the screens, I run the screens, and then I come up with the list of names that are in bases.
我有三滴眼泪 我们会在贸易硕士课程中讲到这个 And I've got three tears. And we're going to go over this at the Master Trade Program.
如果你要参加大师交易课程 我们会在最后一天 周一进行现场交易 If you are coming to the Master Trade Program, we have live trading on on day, on the last day, on the Monday.
呃 当我们也做一个市场前 回顾一下我们的日常工作 我们如何设置筛选 运行筛选 我们运行筛选 你知道 一整天 你会看到整个交易程序 Uh? When we also do a pre market, go through our routine, how we set up the screens, run the screens, we run the screens, you know, throughout the day, and you'll see the whole trading routine.
我们实际上在交易 活生生的钱 And we actually trade, you know, live money.
我可能会用100万美元或差不多的钱来交易 希望我们能有地方让它发挥作用 I'll probably trade a million dollars or something like that, and hopefully we'll have somewhere to put it to work.
有时候我们不会 但是 不管怎样 Uh, sometimes we don't, but, um, but anyway, uh,
你知道 这些我们都会讲的 you know, we'll go through all that.
但我有三颗眼泪 我在甲板上观察和集中注意力 然后从那里开始 无论什么都可以集中注意力 But I have three tears, I have watch on deck and focus, and then from there, whatever makes focus list.
这些都是我开始设置的停止在那些非常紧的 Those are the ones that I start setting by stops on the ones that are really tight.
当它们爆发时 我就买那些先走一步的 然后买那些先走一步的 And as they break out, you know, I just buy the ones I get the 1st move for advantage, and buy the ones that move 1st.
嗯 我不知道 马克 你的做法有什么不同吗 Um. I don't know, mark, do you do it any differently?
不是真的 不 这是 然后我一直在做同样的例行公事 你知道 十多年了 Not really. No. This is, then I've been doing kind of the same routine, you know, for over a decade.
四十年来我一直在做同样的动作 I've been doing the same routine for four decades.
在我有市场史密斯屏幕之前 在我有任何这些漂亮的工具之前 我只是简单地翻阅手图 并由他注释 因为我们只有每周 所以在整个一周中 我会找到看起来最好的 然后随着一周的进行 它从报纸上得到价格 然后拿起笔 然后在图表上进行市场 And when, before I had market smith the screen, and before I had any of these nifty tools, I simply flipped through hand charts and annotated them by him, because we only had weekly, so throughout the week, I would find the ones that look the best, and then as the week went on, it get the price out of the newspaper and take a pen and then market in the chart.
好的 想想看 你猜怎么着 Okay, so think about that. And guess what?
我靠这个赚了一大笔钱 I made a fortune doing that.
所以任何人你知道 有人告诉你交易更多的是 呃 现在更加困难 是他们的思想或 或有任何参考点的 更不用说做佣金200美元贸易但是 但是 你知道 这是 嗯 你知道 一切都是正确的在你的身边现在 史密斯你的市场 你的屏幕上 你的股票 你知道 你设置你的警告 就是这样 So anybody you know, anybody tells you that trading is more is, uh, is more difficult now, is out of their minds or, or there has no reference point whatsoever of how it used to be, not to mention made commissions that were $200 trade so but, but again, you know, this is, um, you know, everything's right there for you now, you market Smith, you're on the screens, you get the stocks, you know, you set your alerts and and that's it.
你所要做的就是等待 And all you have to do is just wait.
这才是真正的孩子 这整件事就是等待就是现在的等待 Now that the real kid. This whole thing is the waiting is the waiting for now.
每个人都在看同样的名字 Everybody's looking at the same names.
那为什么马克·马纳韦尼是美国投资锦标赛冠军而其他人不是呢 So then why is Mark Manerveni when the U-S investing championship and somebody else doesn't?
或者或者为什么一个人 你知道 通过交易相同的名字赚了大钱 而另一个人却在赔钱 Or Or why is one person, you know, making a fortune in trading the same names that somebody else is losing money.
因为这取决于时间 Because it comes down to timing.
归根结底就是把握时机 管理风险 管理头寸 Comes down to timing them and managing risk and managing the position.
但我们看的都是一样的名字都差不多 But we're all watching the same this pretty much the same names.
你知道 任何时候都只有这么多名字 There's only so many, you know, names at any one time.
呃 呃 你知道 那些 呃 那些 那些符合标准的 你知道 高增长的名字 高收益 高销售额 Uh, uh, you know, that are, uh, that are, that are meeting the criteria of having, you know, high high growth names, big earnings, big sales.
相对来说 冲出一个基底 I relative phrase, breaking out of a base.
达米安的最后一个问题 Is the last question from Damian.
他在问 呃 他在股市工作了20年 交易记录很差 尽管过去10年出现了牛市 He was asking, uh? He's been in the markets for 20 years, poor trading record, despite the bull market for the last decade.
他是财富管理方面的专业投资顾问 他刚刚读完您的三本书 现在他正计划辞去日常工作 专注于交易 He's a professional investment adviser in wealth management, and he has just finished reading all three of your books, and he's planning to now quit his day job to focus on trading.
利用你的策略和100万美元的种子资本 他欢迎你的想法 Using your strategy with a million dollar seed capital, he welcomes your thoughts.
这是有道理的 考虑到市场 我相信我有足够的精神和情感来虔诚地应用你的规则 It just makes sense, given the markets, I believe I would have the mental and emotional bandwidth to apply your rules religiously.
嗯 是的 我的意思是 那就是你的激情所在 你 你知道 你感到自信 你知道 为了那个 那个目标 还有你自己 你应该 你知道 你得到了很好的指导 Um, yeah. I mean, that's what, you know, your passion, and you, you know, you feel confident, you know, to that, that end, and yourself, which you should, you know, you're getting the great guidance.
但是 这肯定需要时间 你知道 这是一个 所以 我一开始会很谨慎 不会投入太多的资金 直到你已经 呃 你知道 证明自己实际上可以执行 并且做得很好 And, but it's certainly going to take time, you know, it's a so, just, I would be cautious at 1st and not put too much capital into it until you've, uh, you know, proven yourself a bit that you can actually execute and and do well.
当然 要了解市场 你必须 你知道 就像我们经常说的 你知道 当你获得牵引力时 那就是你积极进取的时候 And certainly know with the market, you're gonna have to, you know, just like we always say, you know, when you when you get traction, that's when you you get aggressive.
但是 你知道 对你来说没有什么不同 它适用于那些有10000美元的人 嗯 是兼职的 But nothing, you know, is going to apply differently to you that it's going to apply to somebody who has $10000 um and is doing it part time.
是同一个前任你知道 你你们俩必须做同样的事 It's the same ex You know, you you both have to do the same thing.
一个人可能会有更多的时间来分配给它 One just might have more time and to to, uh, to allocate to it.
嗯 有时对一些人来说 这在一开始就会伤害到他们 UM. Sometimes for some people, that hurts them in the beginning.
有些人整天坐在屏幕前 受到诱惑 做了很多他们不应该交易的托盘 Some people are sit in front of the screen all day, get tempted and and make a lot of trays that they shouldn't trade.
有些人做得更好一些 多做些兼职 And some people do better by being detached a bit and being more part time.
但是你想要达到这样的程度 你可以坐在屏幕前 并有足够的纪律 你不会 你不会被诱惑去做一些 呃 你知道 呃 自我挫败的事情 But you want to get to the point where you could sit in front of the screen and be disciplined enough that you don't, you're not tempted to do something that's uh, you know, uh, self defeating.
但是 但是这听起来像 你知道 你有一件事 我认为你需要 你知道 对比一下 你知道 我们在这里做的事情和你做的事情 But, but it sounds like, you know, you the one thing is, I think you need to, you know, contrast to what, you know, what we're doing here and and what you've done.
但这么长时间以来 你一直在说你没有成功 我相信你会看到一些巨大的反差 But through all this time that you're saying that you haven't had success, I'm sure you'll see some big contrasts.
你可能知道 我正在做的事情和你正在做的事情完全相反 There's probably something that you know, I'm doing that is in diametrically opposed to what you were doing.
你可能持有亏损 买入下跌的股票 Your probably holding losses, buying stocks that were down.
你知道 典型的事情 嗯 当你有利润的时候 不要把它们固定下来 You know, the typical thing, um, not nailing down your profits when you had them.
返还利润 你知道 你你赚了很多钱 你把钱还给了别人 让它变成了亏损 Um giving back profits. You know, you're you're up big, and you give a lot of it back, let it turn into losses.
我们都会犯同样的错误 And we all make the same mistakes.
每个人都做同样的事情 Everybody does the exact same thing.
没有一个叛徒会犯你犯过的每一个错误 There's not a traitor out there that is to make every mistake that you made, um?
我们只需要 你知道 向他们学习 And we just have to, you know, learn from them.
你要继续 就像我说的 继续发展你的剧本 直到你的比赛非常非常紧张 你已经 你知道 你是一个 你是一个汤姆·布雷迪 And and you keep, like I say, keep developing your playbook until your game is really, really tight and you've got and your, you know, you're a, you're a Tom Brady.
你知道 汤姆·布雷斯是一个完美的专业的例子 You know, tom brays as a perfect example of professionalism in
在执行其他人都在执行的事情时 他只是做得更好 in executing something that everybody else is executing, but he just does it better.
当你去看这些四分卫的传球时 你会发现他们会传球 对吧 但他们会把球直接扔给三名防守球员 穿过这个小洞 然后传球过去 And in you, when you go and you take a look at some of these passes that are made from these quarterbacks, you'll see they'll make a pass, right, but they just like go throw it right into three defenders, thread this little tiny hole and get it through.
但是你知道吗 那个四分卫 如果他这样做了 如果他这样做了一百次 他绝对会比汤姆·布雷迪有更多的交集 而汤姆·布雷迪几乎从不这样做 But you know what, that guy, if he that, that quarterback that does it, if he does that a hundred times, he's going to absolutely have more intersections than Tom Brady, who almost never does that.
我是说 当他远射时 球就会飞到端区 I mean, when he goes long, it goes to the end zone.
他要么走多路 所以越过接球手的头顶 走多路 他不会走短路 He's either going long, so over the head of the receiver, long, he's not going short.
他几乎从不做空 因为这样就会被拦截 Almost never is he going short, because that's where it gets intercepted.
他在玩概率游戏 他总是把它放在高概率区 He's playing probabilities. He always puts it in the high probability zones.
还有其他一些人 你知道 他们他们冒着这些风险 就像拉托 是的 有一个赢家 但名字每周都换 And you have these other guys that are, you know, they they take these risks and and it's like Lato, yeah, there's a winner, but the name changes every week.
没错 这周 这招奏效了 And, and, yeah, this week, that worked.
这就像一支篮球队 他们有35%的三分球 或者 你知道 无论如何 这个非常高的比例 It's just like the the basketball team who winds and they with, you know, 35 %, you know, three pointers, or, you know, whatever, this real high percentage.
他们不可能每周每场比赛都这样 They can't do that every week, every game.
这是一种失常 这不可靠 That's an aberration. That's not reliable.
所以 我在这里画了一个切线 在这里偏离了主题 So it's, I I'm going on a tanget here and going off into something here, digressing.
但还是那句话 这都是关于概率的 嗯 这需要时间才能知道应该远离什么 But again, it's all about probabilities and and um, and that just takes time before you know what to stay away from.
然后去按 它去按 去按 把风险推了 当有不同的是 有些人冒险进入交通 进入那些 你知道 那些时期 那些他们不应该进入的点 那就是他们陷入麻烦的地方 And went to press, it went to went to push and went to push, push the risk when there's And the difference is is that some people take that risk right into traffic, right into those, you know, those periods, those points where they shouldn't, and that's where they get into trouble.
而像汤姆·布雷迪这样的人 他他更擅长了解 就像扑克玩家一样 And someone like Tom Brady, he he is better at knowing, just like a poker player.
知道如何赢的牌手会虚张声势他很了解牌手 知道赔率 他会做得更好 只是因为做出了你可以信赖的决定 这些决定会更加一致 The poker player who knows how to win the shove and went to bluff and knows the players well and knows the odds, is going to do better, just simply because making making decisions that you can count on reliably, that are gonna have or gonna be more consistent.
关键在于一致性 这一切 这一切都是为了一致性 It's all about consistency. This whole, this whole thing is about consistency.
这就是你长寿的原因 否则 你只会有 你知道的 偏差 幸运期 然后你会把它还给你 你会得到一般的回报 That's what gives you longevity. Otherwise, it's just, you're just going to have, you know, aberrations, lucky periods, and then you're going to give it back, and you're going to have mediocre return.
你必须能够一遍又一遍地做这件事 避免犯大错误 You have to be able to do it over and over and over and stay away from the big mistakes.
还有一件事 我还会建议你 如果这是你的意图 因为这将帮助你为全职训练状态做好更多准备 And one thing I would have to also suggest aiming, as you do make it to the Master treat a program, if that is your intention, because that will help you be more ready and prepared for a full time training status.
最重要的是 我不能再强调专业硕士课程了 因为在过去的13年里 在成千上万的参与者之后 我们几乎有了100%的满意度 Than anything, I can't stress the Master Trade program any more than than anything, because we literally have virtually after thousands and thousands of attendees over 13 years, we have, we have virtually a 100% satisfaction rate.
每个表现很好的人都通过了贸易硕士课程 And everybody who's done really well is well gone through that master Trade program.
这是最伟大的特质 It's just, it is the greatest trait.
对于交易员来说 这是地球上最好的学习经验 It is the greatest learning experience on Earth for traders.
从A到Z 这是非常重要的 应该这样做 And it's that A to Z, and it's, it's really important that should, that should do that.
如果你还没有 嗯 它即将到来 我是玛格丽特 她是今年的一部分 If you haven't, um, it's coming up, and I'm Margaret, she being part of that this year.
我真的觉得大卫·瑞恩没什么可说的 因为大卫·瑞恩太棒了 I-I truly believe got nothing to take away from David Ryan, because David Ryan is wonderful.
他说 当然是一个很好的合作主持人 你知道 和我在一起很长时间了 And he said, certainly a great co presenter that, you know, was with me for a long time.
但是马克·里奇 我认为 他将会 他将会和我一起达到一个新的高度 因为他是我的得力助手 我们每天都在做这件事 他比任何人都了解 But Mark Richie is, I think, is going to be it's going to take it to a new level with me, cause he's my right hand man, and we we do this every day, and he knows this better than anybody.
你知道 我是唯一一个可能比马克·里奇更了解我的系统的人 他是唯一一个我会把我的钱交到别人手里的人 你知道 也许是布兰登 你知道 但是 但是 是的 你知道 我-我会 嗯 你知道 我认为这将会是 我认为今年将会是我们做过的最好的一年从学习的角度来看 嗯 你知道 You know, I'm the only guy that probably knows my system, you know, better than Mark Richie, and he's the only guy that I would put my money in someone else's hands, you know, maybe Brandon, you know, but, but, uh, but, yeah, you know, I-I would, um, you know, I-I think it's gonna be, I think this year is gonna be the best one we've ever done as far as from a learning perspective, um, you know.
再说一次 玛格丽特 你也被证明了 你知道 不仅仅是在几年里 他在过去的十年里 在12年里 一直保持着稳定 And again, margaret, you also is, you know, is proven not just over a couple of years, he's proven over overhead decade in consistency, over twelve years.
他有三次平均赔率为5% He's had three drawnowns averaging 5 %.
我的意思是 那是那是那是前所未有的 I mean, that's, that's a that's that's unprecedented.
很少有人能这么说 Very few people can say that.
总之 说到这里 我们今天就到此结束 So anyway, um, with that said, we're going to wrap it up here for today.
我们会在这里为你们播放回放 请继续关注清淡市场 We'll have the replay available here momentarily for you, uh, stay tuned to the uh uh, light market.
现在是一种漂亮的粉色 It's a nice shade of pink right now.
没有什么能比得上今天的高潮了 There's nothing like going on in a high note today.
这就是你 祝你新年快乐 And there's you. Sound very happy New year to you.
Chantova 说到这里 我们下周会继续 The Chantova. And with that said, we will be back in action next week.
在佛罗里达 Also for there is in Florida,
他们为即将登陆西海岸的飓风做好了准备 they are prepared for the hurricane that's coming on the West Coast.
确保安全 是的 And stay safe with that. Yep.
谢谢你的家伙 谢谢 马克和摩根 Thanks guys. Thanks, mark and Morgan.
再说一遍 我们还没到那一步 And and again, we're, we're not there.
我们这里的交易不多而且鉴于市场波动 我 我 但很有可能这周会再进行一次Q-A We're not doing much trading here and and with the volatility, I-I, but most very likely that will do another Q-A this week.
所以可能会在这里再次看到 So probably see again in here, uh,
某个时候 周三 周四什么的 比如说 调到那个时间点的通知 sometime, uh, wednesday, thursday or something, Say, tune to the notifications of that point of life stream.
是的 谢谢各位 还不错 Yeah, thanks guys. Not too bad.
我带你们去 I take your guys.