好吧 Okay,
早上好 欢迎来到鲍勃·怀特曼的私人访问培训室请您快速提升一下 good morning. Welcome to the intervening private access training room on Bob Whiteman If you could do a quick raising
你的手 让你知道你听到了我响亮而清晰的声音 of your hand, letting you know that you hear me loud and clear.
我们从这里开始 希望大家周末愉快 We'll get started here. Hope everybody had a nice weekend.
尽管我们都少睡了一个小时 Even though we all lost an hour sleep.
我知道我也还在恢复中 I know I'm still recovering from that also.
让我们欢迎MarkRichie来到这个房间 Let's welcome Mark Richie into the room.
早上好 马克 你不会每个人吗 Good morning, mark. Won't you everybody?
如果你能举起手来让我们知道你清楚地听到了马克的声音 And if you could just raise your hand letting us know you're hearing Mark loud and clear.
最后 看起来不错 让我们让马克·蒙特雷来开始 Finally, looks good there. Let's hand it off to Mark Monterrey to get started.
早上好 马克 马克责怪你 Good morning, mark. And Mark is on you.
很抱歉 伙计们 哦 大家早上好 Sorry about that, guys. Oh, good morning, everyone.
希望大家周末愉快 Hope everyone had a good weekend.
这周末我做了一堆筛选完全没有找到什么 可以买的股票 I did a bunch of screening this weekend and found absolutely nothing, uh, as far as stocks to buy.
这就是为什么你看不到双提醒列表 So that's why you're not seeing a bi alert list.
有一堆名字在基地里 但没有真正发展到我说在这一点上是可行的 Have a bunch of names that are in bases, but nothing really developed to the point where I say it's actionable at this point.
所以 这并不意味着他们的指数不能反弹 你看到今天早上我们在反弹 但是 呃 没有任何符合我们标准的东西 So again, it doesn't mean their indexes can't rally, and you see that we are rallying this morning, but, uh, just nothing setting up that meets our criteria.
我个人现在有两支股票 I personally I own two stocks right now.
我是D-L-T-R的老板 我们上周买的 I own D-L-T-R, which we bought, um, last week.
我在这方面的立场很小 I have a small position in that.
我不会让你半途而废 And I don't berks your halfway.
这些是我个人所有的所有的钱中唯一持有的股票 Those are the only stocks that I personally own in my entire any any of my money anywhere.
这就是我现在的状况 大概90 我不知道 98%都是现金 Um, so that's what where I'm at, and mostly 90, I don't know, 98% cash.
所以就在这里等着 So just waiting it out here.
让我们看看还有什么 这就会直接进入提问环节 有很多可以讨论的话题 Um, let's see what else. Um, this will just go right to questions on a whole lot to talk about.
我想我在周末的视频里已经讲得很清楚了对于那些没看过或没看过周末视频的人 你们真的应该看一下 因为我相信你们大多数人都看过 I think I made everything pretty clear the weekend video and and for those of you have not watched or don't watch the weekend videos, you really should, because I I'm sure most of you do.
但是对于那些不喜欢的人 你可以 至少你知道 还有回放 所以你不必看 But for those of you if you don't, you can At least you know, there is a replay too, so you don't have to watch it.
你知道 这些视频是问答的回放 当然 周末的视频是录制的 You know, these videos is a replay of the Q and A, and of course, the, um, the weekend video is recorded.
为了你方便 我只是问你几个问题 So for your convenience, that's, uh, that's just some questions.
你明白了吗 马克吗 呃 美元树 You got it? Mark? Uh? Dollar Tree.
呃 斯蒂文斯问你你为什么这么喜欢考虑到最近股价的波动以及过去三届的股价下跌是的 我是说 它表现得很好 Uh. Stevens asking what is it that you love so much about a given the recent volatility of the shares and the declining earnings for share for the past three court Yeah, well, I mean, it's acting pretty good.
嗯 嗯 唯一的问题是它一直表现得很好 Um and um. That's really the only thing is that it's been acting pretty good.
如果你只看拉升 你不会看到史密斯市场的整个图表 And if you look at the just pull up, you're not going to see the whole entire chart here of market Smith.
但你看看未来的收益 2023年 预计7 97美元 增长37% 然后是9 哦 2 2024年 如果公司运转良好 这些可能是保守的 But you look at the earnings going forward, 2023, estimates for $7.97, which is 37% increase, and then nine, oh two, for 2024, which if things are working well for the company, those are probably conservative.
可能还有更大的数字 There probably be a bigger number than that.
所以 是的 在最近几个季度 你可以看到他们的负面影响 So again, yes, in the recent quarters, you can see their negative here.
但是 股票又是如何反应的呢 But again, how is the stock responded?
看 你知道 股票对这几个季度的反应非常好 Look, you know, the stock is responded really, quite nicely to these quarters right here.
你可以看到 这是对那个季度的反应 Um, you can see, this is the response to that quarter.
然后我们坚持了下来 经历了一个基础建设期 然后再次获得收益 And then we held up and went through a base building period, and then again came out the earnings here.
到目前为止 人们的反应是 嗯 我们我们已经接近这只股票的历史高点 创下新高 And so far, the response has been, well, we're we're near all time highs in this stock, hitting the new highs.
结果收益下降了6% And and the earnings came out down six per cent.
所以这显然是一只交易的股票 你知道 是向前看的 So that that's obviously a stock that's trading, you know, and forward looking forward.
这份财报还不错 And this earnings report was not a bad earnings report.
你看这里 看到这条线了吗 You take a look right here, you see this line right here?
这是S-M-P 它有下降趋势 This is the S-M-P, see it's down trending.
我们守在这个基地 进入新的高地 And here we're holding in this base and coming into new high ground.
所以我在尝试 你知道的 任何正在建立和突破基础的股票 接近市场的低点 试图获得某种类型的领导 并抓住一个领导者 So I'm trying to get on, you know, whatever stocks that are setting up and breaking out of bases, coming near off of the lows of the market, to try to get some type of leadership and latch on to a leader.
但同样 这并不是很多 所以这真的是 你知道 最坏的情况中最好的 But again, there's not many. So this is really, you know, the the best of the worst, if you will.
但我不认为 你知道的 我不认为有那么糟 But I don't think it's, uh, you know, I-I don't think it's that bad.
我认为它表现得很好 I think it's acting pretty well.
看看相对强度线 Look at the relative strength lines.
看到相对强度线是如何上升的了吗 See how the relative strength lines moving up?
这仅仅是因为股票在市场上抵挡住了下跌的趋势 That's simply just because the stock is resisting this down trend in the, uh, in the market.
这就是关键 相对强势的表现 实际上 股票在这里达到了一个相对强势的新高 它一直在进入新的高点 所以在这一点上 它的表现大大超过了市场 So that that's the key, this relative strength look, and we've been hitting, actually, stock hit a relative strength in a new high here, and it's been going into new high ground, So it's dramatically out performing the market at this point.
这只股票说它想涨 So that's a stock that says it wants to go higher.
我说过的最后一种股票是A-MPH The last stock that, you know, I said was doing that was A-M PH.
你看 看看相对强度线 You see, look at the relative strengthline.
市场的表现是怎样的 How how much has been out performing the market?
他说 这里的市场正在下降 He says, the market's coming down here.
那支股票一直在上涨 涨到了新的高点 你知道的 That stock was holding right up, going with the new high ground and, um, you know.
然后 当然 它预测得很好 And then, of course, it was forecasting quite well.
当日投资者对近期收益的反应约为12% This response to the recent earnings was about 12% on the day.
周五还 不过 如果你在最后这一阶段只持有四分之一的仓位 通过调整仓位来降低风险 这是不值得的 On Friday also. It is not worthy, though, that your you took just a quarter position in this last by so reducing some of your risk with the position sizing
还有调整 说得好 the adjustment as well. That's a good point.
你知道的 我 我当然不会在这里开枪 You know. I-I haven't, I'm certainly not going in guns blazing here.
我是说 我几乎是100%的现金或者我自己的钱 I mean, I'm, I'm, like, almost a hundred percent cash or my own personal money.
就像我刚才提到的 我只拥有几个名字 所以我非常非常保守 尽管我已经有主了 And I've, I only own, as I've just alluded to, I only own a couple names, so I'm very, very conservative, even though, you know, I'm taken
到处交易 我是非常非常保守的当我在这里获得一些利润时 我就把它们卖掉 trades here and there. I'm very, very conservative, and and trading out of them when I get some profits here.
但是 你知道 随着事情开始好转 我得到了诚实的股票 像交易 T-R 甚至是和PH 这些股票显示出领导能力 从低谷中走出来 But again, you know, with things started to improve, and I got honest stock, something like the deal, T-R, or even and PH, and the stock that was showing leadership coming off the lows.
让你说 我们得熬过一天 你知道 过几天 然后我可能会考虑真正持有这些名字中的一些 或者至少是其中的一部分 为了更大的变动 因为现在我们开始看到情况有所改善 And lets you say, we got to fall through day, you know, a couple of days down the road, then I might think of actually holding some of those names, or or at least a piece of them, for a bigger move, because now we start to see things improve.
我可能给自己抓了一个 你知道的 领导者 一个从低谷中走出来的关键领导者 I might have grabbed myself one of those, you know, leaders, one of those key leaders coming off the lows.
约翰问的是 你说 你说当交易对你不利时 不要对较大的头寸 比如25%的头寸 进行8%的止损 John is asking about, you talk, you talk about not taking full 8% stops on bigger positions, like 25% positions, by cutting some as the trade moves against you.
你如何在这两者之间找到平衡 How do you balance this with not trying to overtrate?
好吧 首先 我不希望 你知道 男人把我当回事 所以我必须非常小心我说的话 Okay, well, 1st of all, I don't want, you know, guys take me very literally, so I have to be very careful what I say.
我不是说不要8% Um, I'm not saying not to take an 8 %.
好吧 如果股票运转正常 你获得了吸引力 你可以稍微放开一些 你可以开始做那些句号 Okay? The things, if the stocks are working and, um, you're gaining traction, you can open up the game a bit, and you can start taking those full stops.
所以这不是毯子 永远不要对25%的仓位做8%的止损 So that's not a blanket. Don't ever take an 8% stop on a 25% position.
我说的是增持 那么我通常会更快地把他裁掉 而且如果我增持 我肯定会减持那些对我不利的股票 What I said was on an overweight position, then I'm usually going to cut him out a lot quicker, and I'm certainly going to scale back of the stocks moving against me if I have an overweight.
现在 超重取决于你的你知道 我们刚刚在位置大小的教程中讨论过这个问题 Now, overweight depends on what your You know, we just went over this with the uh position sizing tutorial.
超重取决于你的体重 Overweight depends on what your full weight is.
有些人 大卫·瑞安 他他会选择10%的位置 通常这是他最大的位置 他会选择 你知道的 百分之几 或者 你知道的 5%作为一半的位置 他会逐渐增加到10%的位置 Some people, for David Ryan, he he takes a 10% position, usually, that is his biggest position, and he goes in with, you know, just a couple percent, or, you know, 5% as a half position, works his way up to a 10% position.
10只股票 你知道 马克和我 我们 你知道 我们 我们倾向于 你知道 当事情进展顺利时 我们会比这更大 Ten stocks, um, you know, mark and I, we, you know, we, we tend to go, you know, bigger than that when things are working well.
嗯 马克在前几天说过在位置尺寸教程中 他的最大值是2530 Um. But again, with a with Mark just said on the other day that during the uh, position sizing tutorial, that his max would be about 2530.
我 你知道 在用我的个人账户交易 Um, I'm, you know, trading in my personal account.
有些时候我做得非常大 当我做得非常大的时候 是的 然后我就会 嗯 我会更快地剪掉它 There's times where I go really big, when I go really super big, yes, then I'm going to, um, I'm going to be cutting it out a lot quicker.
嗯 在进行交易时 我已经知道我不会在一夜之间持有 Um. And and going into the trade already knowing that I'm not going to hold overnight.
举个例子 如果我做了一笔交易 我100%用杠杆做了一笔交易 我肯定不会一夜之间持有那只股票 I'm in For instance, if I go into a trade, and I'm a hundred percent leverage into a trade, I'm I'm certainly not holding that stock overnight.
那就是股票将会进行日交易 That is that that stock is going to be day traded.
你知道 它的一部分将会在当天交易 You know, a portion of it is going to be day traded.
这就是我这么做的目的 试图获得利润 这样我就能以低风险或无风险持有隔夜资产 And that's my purpose for doing that, is to try to scalp a profit that could then cushion me to be able to hold overnight with with less risk, or with no risk.
你的问题是 如何做到不过度交易 So your question is, how do you do it without over trading?
我不知道那是什么意思 I don't know what does that mean.
在交易 我的意思是 对我来说 过度交易就是做你不应该做的交易 Over trading. I mean, over trading to me, is doing trades that you shouldn't be doing.
我的意思是 如果有很好的设置 我想要尽可能多的交易 I mean, if if there's good setup setting up, I want to trade as much as possible.
没有所谓的过度交易 There is no such thing as over trading.
我想在最短的时间内进行尽可能多的交易 I want to trade as many trades as I can, uh in in the shortest period of time.
我想要过度交易 但是过度交易对我来说意味着你做了你不应该做的交易 你交易太多了 I want to over trade. But what over trading means to me that you are doing trades that you shouldn't be doing, and you're trading too much.
但是 我想放弃交易 我 我想离开市场越久越好 But again, I-I-I want over trade, and I, but I want to be out of the market as much as possible.
所以当我在市场上的时候 你知道 我疯狂地交易 So then when I'm in the market, you know, I'm trading frantically.
我在努力 我在努力赚尽可能多的钱 I'm trying to, I'm trying to make as much money as I can.
所以我有一段时间不在市场上 So then I have periods of time rum out of the market.
这实际上降低了风险 我做的每件事 人们几乎都不理解 And that actually reduces risk. See, people don't understand almost everything that I do.
而普通人的做法则完全相反 The average person is doing completely inverse.
他们不喜欢 他们不理解 They They don't. They don't understand.
这是违反直觉的 你知道吗 他们被告知 你被市场淘汰了 你面临风险 你要抓住这个机会 It's counterintuitive, you know? They they're been told that, you know, you're out of the market, you're at risk, you're going to this opportunity.
当你在市场上的时候 这是荒谬的当你在市场上的时候 你在风险中 That's absurd when you're in When you're in the market, you're you're at risk.
当你在旅馆的时候 我们没有危险 When you're inn ac're not at risk.
请注意 你不会抓住机会 但那不是风险 Now, minds you, you won't take advantage of an opportunity, yes, but that's not risk.
好吧 这是错失的机会 所以我想退出市场 Okay? That's missed opportunity. So I want to be out of the market.
如果我告诉你 看 你今年可以完成30% 我可以在12天内完成 If I told you, look, you can accomplish 30% this year, I can do it in twelve days.
你要花12个月的时间谁的风险更大 And you its gonna take you twelve months of the who's got a better risk?
只是为了回报 我的收益比你的高一百万倍 我的收益比你高 我的收益越好 风险调整得越多 Just to return. Mine is astronomically a million times better than yours the next day that I can make that return versus you, the better my return is, the more risk adjusted.
所以我想要低的 你知道 最低的 最高的风险调整回报 So I want the low, you know, the lowest, the highest risk adjusted return.
我就是这么做的 And that that's how I go about it.
好吧 我知道了 马克 你如何避免过度交易 All right, I know, mark, how do you avoid over trading?
我觉得你最后那部分说得很好 I think you nailed that last part on
在交易 我认为它的定义很模糊 over trading. I think it's poorly defined often.
我的思考方式是 很明显 如果你交易的东西完全不符合条件 但我也这么想 就好像我交易的东西可能 The way I think about it, though, is, maybe obviously, if you're trading stuff that doesn't meet the criteria at all, but I kind of think of it too, as if I'm trading stuff that maybe,
你会听到马克说的 you know, like, you'll hear Mark
有时他会用扑克类比 说 sometimes say, you'll, he'll use poker hand analogies, you know, and say,
这就像一对10 你知道 我不是扑克玩家 所以我不知道 我不知道 马克 你玩扑克的最低限度是多少 this is like a pair of tens or, you know, I'm not a poker player, so I don't know, I don't know, mark, what's the bare minimum hand you would play in poker?
如果你经常玩这种游戏 我会说这是在交易中 Um, if you're playing a lot of those, I would say that's over trading.
你知道在哪吗 他们只是勉强达到标准 但他们不是很清晰 因为你在期待 你只是做了比你需要做的更多的工作 你的期望会有点不值得 你知道 就像为了几分钱而磨磨蹭磨 You know where it? They just kind of barely meet the christ the criteria, but they're not really crisp um, because you're ex- expecting, you're just doing more work than you need to be doing, and your expectancy is gonna sort of not be worth, you know, like grinding for pennies.
关于过度交易的另一件事是 如果你在交易 可能导致过度交易的一种方式是你卖出表现良好的股票 而你没有 你没有持有 这也是过度交易的一种方式 The other thing about over trading, too, is, if you're trading, maybe one way you end up over trading is that you sell stocks that are acting fine and you don't and you don't hold, and that's a way of over trading too.
或者你阻碍了交易 你的止损点太紧了 所以你可能会过度交易 你进去买了正确的股票 但你没有正确地管理头寸 Or or you're choking off the trade, and your stops are too tight, so you could over trade by, you know, you go in there and you buy the right stock, but you don't manage the position properly.
我相信比选股更重要的是 时机 最重要的是头寸管理 UM, and I truly believe that more important than stock selection, um is, you know, is timing, and most importantly, is position management.
职位管理 你管理职位的方式 是区分男人和男孩的关键 Position management, the way you manage the position, is really what separates, um, the men from the boys.
我说这并不意味着如果你获利 因为我是一个经常获利的人 你知道 在短期内 股票会涨得更高 And And I say that that doesn't mean that if you take a profit, because I'm one who takes profits all the time, you know, on the short term, and the stocks go much higher.
嗯 但这就是我的计划 Um, that that. But that's my plan.
这是我的计划 只要你你在 你在高效地 你知道的 执行你自己的计划 你的优势 That's my plan. As long as you you're, you're efficiently, um, you know, exercising your own plan, and your rolling that edge over.
所以最重要的是 你必须定义你自己 So the bottom line is is that, you know, you have to define yourself.
你知道 如果你想翻盘 快速复合 你想过度交易 但你也想在这样的范围内做 你知道 不要卖掉一只你知道看起来不错的股票 然后买一些你知道看起来不太好的股票 而你已经拥有一只看起来不错 表现也不错的股票 You know, if you're looking to roll the edge over and compound rapidly, you know, you want to over trade, but you also want to do it within the confines of, you know, not selling a stock that you know is looking great, and then buying something you know that isn't looking at nearly as good when you already own a stock that's looking fine and acting fine.
丹在问 在去年的市场困难时期 当突破只持续了几天就逆转 或蹲仓 你的交易中有多少是个位数的 Dan is asking, during last year's difficult market, when breakouts lasted only a few days before reversing, or squatting, what percentage of your trade had single digit games?
我不知道 但是很多 你知道 巨大的百分比或个位数的收益 你知道 两位数的收益很难获得 不管你持有的时间长短 I don't know, but a lot of them, you know, a huge percentage or single digit gains, you know, double, look, double digit gains were hard to come by, regardless of your holding period.
你知道 这就是 我们快速抛售股票的全部原因 因为你不能获得双倍收益 You know, that was the, the whole reason why we're selling stocks quickly was because you couldn't attain double did.
如果你能获得两位数的涨幅 如果股票能够突破或获得两位数的涨幅 我就会为获得两位数的涨幅而持有股票 If you could attain double digit dance, and stocks that were breaking out or obtaining double digit gains, I would have been holding for double digit gains, you know.
它实际上是一种默认的 你知道 那种自定义自己 So it really was just sort of a by default, um, you know, that sort of self defined itself there.
所以 嗯 我是说 我不知道确切的比例 但很大的比例 So, um, yeah, I mean, I don't know the exact percentage, but a huge percentage.
我的意思是 有一些 是的 我有两位数的收益 有一些是有的 I mean, there are some, yes, that I for double digit gains and had, and there was a few that there were.
有相当可观的大幅增长 但绝大多数都是 你知道的 个位数增长 There were pretty decent big gains, but the grand majority of them were all, you know, single digitt gains.
他们有5到5个 8到9% 我想说 你知道 当然是超重仓位 我持有的巨大仓位 你知道 这些几乎都是个位数的收益 They had five to five, eight or 9 %, I would say, you know, certainly on the overweight position, the big, huge positions I took, you know, those were virtually all single digit gains.
我想在很少的情况下 你知道 在一些情况下 我得到了一些汽水 不管它们在一天内涨了 你知道 10%或更多 I think on rare, you know, on couple occasions I got some pops, whether they were up, you know, 10% in one day or more.
除此之外 是的 所有的大仓位都在个位数的游戏中被剥离了 Other than that, though, yeah, all the big positions were were peeled off at single digit games.
詹姆斯问玛格丽琪 你能不能谈谈你的仓位规模 或者你上周提到的连续17次亏损 在此期间 你的仓位有没有低于四分之一 James is asking to Margaretchie, could you please share how you position size, or the 17 consecutive losses you mentioned last week, and during that time, did you ever go below a quarter position?
在马克吗 这是个好问题 Certainly in Mark? That's a great question.
我还想补充一下这个问题 抱歉打断一下 但是 嗯 你们那段时间的降价幅度是多少 What I'd like to also ask to add to that question, sorry to interrupt, but, um, what was your drawdown during that period?
而且 我敢肯定它很低 你是怎么 你知道 用那些连续的损失来缓和它的 And, and I'm sure it was quite low, and how did you, you know, mitigate it with with all those losses in a row?
是的 我在试着 我在试着记住这个百分比是多少 Yeah, I'm trying, I'm trying to actually remember what the the percentage was.
大概是10%左右 It was, it was probably around 10% or something.
那是我的一个比较大的交易 但是 嗯 我当时的交易规模很小 你知道 在 嗯 在 几次之后 我对那些不是这样的人来说 那是仓位规模和我们做的指导课程的一部分 我只是想说明这些风和损失经常是成批出现的 It was one of my bigger ones, but, um, I was trading very small, you know, after, after, um, a few the the point, I for people who weren't, that was part of the position size and tutorial session we did, where I was just making the point that these winds and losses come often in bunches.
它们并不总是平均分布的 你们很多人认为 如果我有50%的胜率 就会有赢输 什么时候输 什么时候输 They're not always evenly distributed. Where a lot of you guys think, if I have a 50% win rate, it comes win loss, when loss, when loss.
任何交易过一段时间的人 都知道情况并非如此 And anybody's been trading, you know, a degree of time, knows that's not the case.
所以 呃 我说 你知道 你会有风的条纹 你希望这些风理想的 更大 So, uh. And I was saying, you know, you're going to have streaks of winds, and you want those winds ideally, to be bigger.
你想要在热的时候按压它 真正在休息的时候骑 You want to be pressing it when you're hot and really ride in the break.
所以 回答这个问题 是的 在那条街上的交易比四分之一的头寸低很多 So, to answer the question, yeah, was trading way below quarter positions at at, you know, in that street.
有几次我交易了 你知道 1%的头寸 你知道 只是为了了解它的脉搏 你知道 买了几百股 There are times I've, I've traded, you know, 1% positions just, you know, just to get a pulse on it, you know, buy a few hundred shares.
但同样的快 你必须能够 以另一种方式返回 but just as quickly, then you have to be able to to, to move back the other way.
所以我不能 我不能告诉你我交易的规模有多小 但是 你知道 这就像 我认为当事情不顺利的时候 我不能把它变得足够小 So I can't, I-I couldn't give you the exact size of how small I traded, but, you know, it was almost like, I see it as A-I can't get small enough when things aren't working.
我的意思是 你不会一旦 你知道 一旦像我这样的人说 你知道 你知道 在四五次交易中出现亏损 我们会立即减少我们的活动 我们的敞口 Um, I mean, you're not gonna once, you know, once someone like myself remarked, you know, is down on or, or, you know, has losses on four or five trades, we're immediately cutting way back our activity, our exposure.
如果这种情况再次发生 你知道的 我们将一无所有 或者将转为现金 And if that happens again, you know, we're cutting back to nothing, or going to cash.
所以可以忽略不计 我们永远也进不去 So it would be negligible. We're never going to be in there.
输了7次8点10分 一点都不重 Ain't heavy at all after, you know, seven 08:10 losses.
我的意思是 这是一个天文数字的损失考虑在市场上采取积极行动 I mean, that's just, that's an astronomical number of losses to be ever considering getting aggressive in the market.
我们会接受非常非常小的训练 We would be trained very, very small.
所以我们永远不会被抓到 你知道 交易规模大 市场会把我们分掉 你知道 一百万倍 So we're never going to get caught, you know, trading large that the market's going to have to cut us up, you know, a million times.
在我们遭受重大损失之前 我们必须阻止我们很多次 因为我们永远不会 永远不会 在我们连败的时候 冒很大的风险 And was going to have to just stop us out so many times before we could ever get a big loss, because we're never, ever going to be, you know, taking big risk, uh, while we're on a losing streak.
这是 你知道 真正的关键 我认为马克 你知道 试图指出好 我想补充一点 你可以做的一件事是 如果你达到一个点 你知道 即使在你的帐户 也许 也许你减少了5个你设置的墙 你知道 我减少了5或10% 我将变得非常 非常小 And that's, you know, really the key, I think that marks, you know, was trying to point out well, and I would just add to it, one thing you can do is, if you get to a point where you feel like, you know, even in your account, maybe, maybe you're down five per you set walls, you know, I'm down five or 10 %, I would get really, really small.
你知道 你可能会连续输掉十笔交易 You know, you could lose ten trades in a row.
如果我在交易 如果我冒着 总账户25%的风险 你可能会出错 你可能会一直出错 结果很糟糕 但不会给自己挖太大的坑 If I'm trading, if I'm risking, you know, a quarter of a percent of my overall account, you can be wrong, you can continue to be wrong and have a terrible streak and not dig yourself too big a hole.
这就是我认为你们很多人 你们没有意识到马克的观点 你知道 你知道 连续两场比赛 你们仍然 你知道 在你应该努力上垒的时候 你仍然在挥棒击球 And that's what I think a lot of you guys, you don't realize to mark's point, you know, for, you know, a couple in a row, and you guys are still, you know, swinging for the fences when you should be just trying to get on base.
我注意到的是 人们会继续交易相同规模或更大的股票 What I've noticed is people will just keep trading the same size or bigger.
他们要么这样 要么那样 They do one or the other.
要么交易规模不变 要么交易规模更大 要么这样做 要么做别的 要么变得更多样化 开始分散 Either they just keep trading the same size, or they trade bigger, or they do this, they do something else, or they get more diversified, and they start scattering it all around.
与此同时 它们仍然暴露在大量的环境中 但只是分散在各处 这实际上更加困难 因为现在你有 你有同样的暴露 你有很多风险 你知道 你有很多猫在房间里跑来跑去 你必须管理它们 Meanwhile, they still have a lot of exposure, but it's just a scattered all over the place, which actually is even more difficult, because now you have the, you have the same exposure, you have lots of risk, and you've got, you know, all these cats running around the room you got to manage.
所以我想要更加集中注意力 减少位置 把它放在我能非常仔细地关注它们的地方 然后把尺寸减小 不要保持不变 也不要变大 And so I-I want to get actually more concentrated and get less positions, and get it where I'm really able to focus on them very carefully, and then and bring that size down, not keep it the same and not get larger.
好了 迈克尔在问我们的王牌短语一个问题 All right, um, michael is asking our powerphrase a question.
但是 当交易头寸大量增加时 你会在盈亏平衡之外停止交易 而不是让股票阻止你退出吗 But when trading mass up positions, will you ever stop out of break even, versus letting the stock stop you out?
意思是 如果你马上赚了一小笔钱 而且很快又回来了 你会不会只是卖出 写一个盈亏平衡来推动 Meaning, if you get up a small profit right away and it comes back in quickly, would you ever just sell, write a break even to push?
是的 一直都是 我一直这么做 尤其是在非常大的头寸上 Yes, all the time. I do that all the time, especially on on very large positions.
你知道 一旦我的股票上涨 我得到了利润 嗯 通常我会收支平衡 在超重的时候停止 然后说 你知道 这个东西在这里 很好 You know, once I it, the stock takes off and I get it a profit, um, very often I'll break even, stop it on the overweight, and just say, you know this, this thing goes here, great.
如果我做对了 我将得到 我将得到 我将得到一大笔回报 If I got it right, I'll get, I'll get, I'll get a big payoff.
如果我不这样做 我就不会失去任何东西 If I don't, I don't lose anything.
我经常在大头寸上这么做 So I do that all the time on big positions.
我有一个迈克尔问的问题 我认为他不明白 但他很感兴趣 想看看他能否让比尔·奥尼尔上台接受采访 And I have a question that Michael is asking, which I don't think he understands, but as he was interested to see if he could get Bill O'neal on the platform for an interview.
比尔·奥内尔 是的 我想比尔精神不太好 Bill Onel Yeah, I think Bill is not so well um mentally.
你知道吗 我听说 很不幸 我们的市场头脑之一 他的头脑不像以前那么敏锐了 You know, I've heard that, unfortunately, um, one of our great minds of the market, his mind is not as sharp as it was at one time.
我觉得那是不可能的 And I don't think that's gonna happen.
但我很乐意 我很乐意 But I would, I would certainly love to.
而且 你知道 那将是 那将是一种款待 在所有的款待中 詹姆斯在问 And, you know, that would be, that would be a treat, of all treats, james is asking.
他提出了一个问题 那就是阻止那些本可以获利丰厚的交易 并给出了一个A-M-D的例子 He has an issue of choking off trades that would be, would have been very profitable trades, and gives an example A-M-D.
他是在10月13日买的 因为它能用 他还买了录像带 He bought that on october 13, and because it was working, he also purchased in video.
当第一个小的后续的自然反应开始在低利润时 我看到了这两种情况 当时我在寻求建议 让他屈服 以改善耐力行业 And I saw both when when the 1st tiny subsequent Natural Reaction started at Low Profits, and was asking for recommendations to club him into submission to improve staying power industry.
对吧 所以 就在这里 完美地从低脸颊上买下了它 对吧 Right? So, so right here, bought it perfectly off the low cheek, right?
这是 这是下面的床单 That's the, that's the low sheet.
然后我 所以他说他卖得很快 And am d um. So he saying that he sold it quickly.
听起来像是三到四天后 当它必须要绑起来的时候 对吗 It sounds like about three or four days later, when it had to tie a little pull back, right?
你可以做一些事情 你可以使用移动平均线 So a few things you can do, and again, you know, you can always use, you can use a moving average.
呃停止 一旦你开始交易 如果你愿意 你可以使用移动平均线 Uh stop. Once you get into a trade, you can use a moving average if you wanna.
这些股票中只有一些会走得很远 Just some of these stocks will go a long way.
我们这里没有显示十天 但他们可以骑十天行驶一段很长的距离 We're not showing a ten day here, but they can ride the ten day for A-A good distance.
在这种情况下 是20天 In this case, the 20 day.
如果你在这里用20天作为止损点 当它最终关闭时 在下面 If you used a 20 day as a stop here, when it finally closed, below
这20天 能让你锁定不少时间 the 20 day, it would have locked you in quite a bit.
嗯 所以我知道我不反对 一旦你走出大门 如果你愿意的话 一旦你盈利了 你就从一个基地中突围出来 我不反对使用阻止或更好的角色 Um. So I know I'm not opposed to, once you come out of the gate, if you will, and you break out of a base once you get profitable, I am not opposed to using a stop or better role.
呃 现在 在牛市开始的时候 或者像现在这样的裸市 我们有一些股票开始突破 领导者从底部出来 嗯 这就是你要开始使用的时间 比如50天 Uh? Now in the beginning of a bull market, or you're in a bare market like now, and we've got some stocks that start breaking out, leaders coming out of bases, uh, that's where you want to start using, like a 50 day.
如果你真的想保留一个名字 你可以用50天 这可以让你有时可以让你在一个大的变动 If you really want to stay in a name, you use the 50 day, and that'll keep that'll keep you in sometimes for a huge move.
呃 但当你进入后期阶段时 这种方法就不那么有效了 Uh. But that doesn't really work that well when you get in the later stages.
从熊市中走出来 找到关键的领导者 效果非常好 It works really well, coming off of a bear market and getting those key leaders.
所以 你可以做的另一件事就是不断地支持 So or, you know, another thing you can do is just constantly backstop.
随着库存的增加 它在这里爆发 它上升 它上升 大概17%左右 你支持 So as this stockroll runs up, so it breaks out here, it's up, it runs up, all right, about 17% or so, you backstop.
如果你要保护 也许 你知道 即使只有10% 你也会被击倒在这里 And if you were to protect, maybe, you know, even 10 %, you would have been, you'd have been knocked out right here.
所以 你知道 你必须用一个数字你满意 你想给它一些房间 但只是一个停止 呃 你知道 可以保持它 你只是继续前进 支撑起来 嗯 你知道 这没有什么 你知道 没有神奇的答案 除了你知道 使用规则 我有在我的第二本书细胞的规则 你可以看到 这是一个很好的例子 你打破一个2345-6789的10天 So, you know, you have to come up sort of with a number that you're happy with, and you want to give it some room, but just a back stop, uh, you know, can keep in it, and you just keep moving that backstop up, um, you know, so that there's really no, you know, no magic answer, except, you know, using the rules that I have in my 2nd book of the cell rules, you can see, this is a perfect example where you break out one 2345-6789 out of ten days up.
所以它表现得很好 对吧 你试着进行第一个自然反应 So it's acting fine, right? So you try to go through the 1st natural reaction.
自然的反应 呃 大麻被抽掉了 Natural reaction. Uh, high is taken out.
当然 你肯定会至少把你的停止移动到收支平衡 Of course, you would definitely at the very least move your stop up to break even.
现在 看这里 我们有另外一个 两个 三个 四个 然而 七天中的五个更新最大的在这里 Now, look at here. We get another one, two, three, four, yet, five out of seven days up with the largest update right here.
这是根据我的规定 在我的书里 你应该调查这个团伙然后开始确定利润 That under my rules in my book, as where you should be looking the cell into that and start nailing down profits.
现在你已经确定了一个更大的收益 Now you've nailed down a much bigger gain.
现在你可能会保留一部分 你要么支持它 要么跟随移动平均线 你可以利用它进行更大的移动 And now maybe you keep a piece of it, and you either backstop it, or you some kind of type of trailing with the moving average, and you can play that for a much larger move.
这是另一种方式 听着 没有神奇的答案 That's another way. Look, there is no magic answer.
嗯 你要决定你是做短线的交易者 你要决定你是做第一次上涨 还是 你知道 你们中的一些人在突破的那天卖出 你知道 这是倒卖 Um. You've got to decide if you're a short term trader and you take this 1st run up, or, you know, there's some of you sold this on the day of the breakout, you know, that was scalping.
还有一个人 你知道 这几天一直在卖 还有一个人现在还在持有 一直到这里 There's someone else that, you know, is selling these couple days up, and there's someone that's still holding it now, all the way back down here.
所以这是一个找到自己的问题 So it's a matter of the finding yourself.
如果你是一个短线交易者 那么你就必须放弃大的变动来换取小的变动 If you're a short term trader, well, then you've got to give up the big move to get that small move.
如果你是一个长线投资者 有时候你会有20%的涨幅 然后股票一路下跌 最终阻止你出局 If you're a longer term in investor, there's going to be times where you get a 20% move and the stock comes all the way back down and ends up stopping you out.
所以你不能 你知道 你不能两者兼得 So you can't, you know, you can't have both.
你必须决定你要成为哪一个 You've got to make a decision of which one you're going to be.
一个叫Ken的人在问K-B-R 3月买的 刀 D-Z-R-D-K-D-R呃型的 A Ken is asking about K-B-R, bought it on March, knife, D-Z-R-D-K-D-R uh type.
鲍勃·罗密欧 嘿 鲍勃 啤酒 我想看看你是什么时候买的 Bob Romeo, hey, bob, beer. And wants to see if e When did you buy?
三个 九个是雷九拉回来的 Three? Nine. Was a pull back by re Nine.
好吧 那又可以了吗 Okay. Well, is that okay again?
这是后面的一根杆 但是一个构件 后面的一根杆 正如我定义的 它在一个底部内 This is a pole back by this, but a member, a pole back by, as I define it, it's within a base.
这是从底部延伸出来的 This is, this is way extended from a base.
所以我不会在这里买回 So I would never buy a pullback by here.
我不应该说永远不会 但是 你知道 有些时候 我试着表现出一种自然的反应 然后从自然的反应中表现出来 Um, I shouldn't say never. But, you know, there are times, while I try to play a natural reaction, and then play it turning up from the natural reaction.
这里的高汤 我不知道 来自底部的顶部 是的 我的意思是 这是垂直向上的 没有轴 Uh, this stock here, I don't know, coming from the top of the base, yeah, I mean, this is run straight up the right side with no pivot.
嗯 现在 呃 你知道的 是一些东西 你知道 它大大扩展了 Um. And now, uh, you know, is something that I is, you know, it massively extended.
但问题是什么呢 如果这是一个合理的从真空的角度来看 这是一个正确的拉回 一个正确的拉回应该是在帐篷上的三个10 But what's the question? If it was a reasonable pulled back by from a standpoint of looking at it in a vacuum, it's a correct pull back by, where a correct pull back by would be on the tent on on three tens.
我们买了3点10分或者3点9分 And we bought 03:10 or three nine, three night.
三个晚上都不容易 Well, three nights not a pull back by.
我真搞不懂你为什么要买三天 I don't have any clue why you'll be buying it on three nights.
都没有 都没有拉回来 Didn't even, it didn't a pull back by.
必须消除前一天的高点 Has to take out the previous day's high.
所以这是在三九的时候进去的 So this was went inside on three nine.
所以 我是说 我想 它起作用了 So, I mean, it worked, I guess.
但是不 就在第二天 那是一个倒退 But no, that right there the next day, that was a pullback by.
当它从这个高点走出去 随着这里的反转 我可能一直等到它走到这个高点 甚至可能在第一个高点买入一点 然后加到这里 So as it took out this high, and with this reversal right here, I had probably waited until it took up this high, and maybe even bought a little bit at the 1st high and then add it to it there.
嗯 但是 我对回调的定义是我设计的 使用它是在基础内 而不是当它从基础扩展时 Um. But again, my definition of pullback by is what I've designed, using it for is within the base, not when it's extended from the base.
事实上 它以38分的低价收盘绝对不是我们设定的标准的一部分 The fact that it closed on its low on three eight is definitely not part of our set up criteria.
所以你真的应该 So you should really
观看视频档案中的交易教程 它确实有更深入的解释 对吧 watch the pullback by trading tutorial in the video archives that does go through a much deeper explanation of that, right?
拉斐尔在一个关于游泳池的教程中问 如果你是一个年轻的交易员 参考他的儿子 他刚开始只有几千美元 你会建议他百分之百地投资一只股票吗 Ah, is a tutorial on the pool back by Rafael Is asking, if you're a young trader referencing his son, who is starting out with just a few thousand dollars, do you recommend him to invest a hundred percent in one stock?
显然 当茎变成绿色信号 Obviously, when stem becomes a green signal.
但如果答案是肯定的 你对他的隔夜风险有什么建议 But if the answer is yes, what do you recommend him about overnight risk?
好吧 你知道 你必须如果 如果几千美元不是 你知道 你知道 如果你把它搞砸了 你知道 这肯定是一笔钱 实际上 你知道 大多数人可以恢复 嗯 Well, again, you know, you have to if, if a few thousand dollars is not, you know, something extra too worried about if you blow it up, you know, it's certainly an amount that virtually, you know, most people can recover from, um.
但是 你需要知道 或者他需要知道 事情不会一直是这样的 So, but, you know, you need to know, or he needs to know, that it won't always be that way.
你会 你知道 你会把你的会计换成一只股票如果你把它涨了 然后他的经理换成25000只股票 Where you would, you know, you would trade your own accountant to one stock if you bumped that up, and maybe his manager 25000 later on.
现在你要把它放到多个位置 可能是三四个位置 Now you're gonna wanna put it into multiple positions, maybe put it in, you know, three or four positions.
最终 你不会想要超过25%的最佳仓位尺寸 Ultimately, you don't really want to go more than about 25% optimal position sizing.
你知道 你的风险开始上升 You start, you know, your risk really starts to go up.
即使是25%的职位也是非常集中的 Even 25% positions is is very concentrated.
你真的要把它管理得很好 You've really got to manage it quite well.
你 你很专注 但那是你想去的地方 You're, you're very concentrated. But that's where you want to be.
你想要 你知道 25%的仓位大小 4 5 6 You want to be at, you know, 25% position sizes, four, five, six.
投资组合中的名字 可能是8点10分或12分 如果你有一个大的投资组合 像BillO neil这样的人 你知道 有人刚刚提到过 他管理的资金比一般人多得多 你知道 肯定有数千万美元 Names in your portfolio, maybe 08:10 or twelve, if you have a large portfolio, someone like Bill O'neil, which you know, someone just mentioned, was managing much more money than the average person, and, you know, certainly tens of millions of dollars.
他会 你知道 把他所有的鸡蛋和一些股票放在一起 但是非常精心地选择 并且在很好的时机 等待 就像我和马克一样 等待很长一段时间 等待合适的时机 然后进入那些关键的领导者 建立非常大的地位 And he would, you know, put all his eggs and just a couple stocks, but very well selected and and very well timed, and wait for, just like myself and Mark for a long periods of time, to wait for that right moment and then get in those key leaders and and build very large position.
所以我会告诉他们不要做和我们不同的事情 So I would, I would tell them not to do anything different than we do.
规则不会因为你的年龄 或者你的投资组合规模而改变 虽然如果你只交易1000美元 显然这是一个可收回的金额 You know, just that the rules aren't going to change because of your, you know, because of your age, or because of your portfolio size, although if you're trading with just a thousand dollars, obviously that's a recoverable amount of money.
所以 你知道 也许只是为了简单起见 你知道 你只交易一两支股票 So, um, you know, maybe just to keep things simple, you know, you just trade one or two stocks.
好吧 呃 罗山想问的是 你能否解释一下 为什么Rambus是MBS 尽管盈利疲弱 但仍被列入买入名单 Okay, uh? Roshan is asking, if you can please explain why Rambus are MBS, was added to buy lists despite having weak earnings.
五个季度的混合收益合计为雾霾收益 Five quarters of mixed earnings in total of mist earnings.
嗯 那么关于收益的问题是什么呢 Um. So what is the question about the earnings?
好吧 问问他为什么上周买了一个清单 尽管有5个25美分的Mr Well, ask why was added to buy a list last week despite having five quarters of Mr.
达林斯女士的25美分硬币 ts five quarters of Ms. Darings.
首先 我不知道你说的女士是什么意思 1st of all, I what, I don't know what you mean by Ms.
达林斯 我想你的意思是为了估算如果是这样的话 好吧 我不考虑这个 Darings, I guess you mean for the estimates and and if that's the case, all right, um, I'm not looking at that.
我在看股票对这些收益的反应 I'm looking at the stocks response to those earnings.
如果你看这里 我在看收益数据 过去四五个季度的收益是巨大的 And if you take a look here, and I'm looking at the earnings numbers, the earnings are gigantic for the last four or five quarters.
上个季度增长了260% Last last quarter was up 260 %.
前一个季度增长了600 Quarter before that was up 600.
上一季度增长了400 Quarter before that was up 400.
在此之前的一个季度增长了67 收益从7%加速到3740 Quarter before that was up 67, with earnings accelerating from 7% to 3740.
03 48 所以你得到了非常非常多的数字 03:48. So you've got huge, enormous numbers.
现在 如果我们回到你所说的五个季度 也就是一年多一点的时间 看看股票 Now, if we go back for those five quarters you're talking about, which is a little over a year here, look at the stock.
这支股票一直在上涨 而且处于上涨阶段 The stock has gone up the entire time, and has been in a stage to uptread.
这就是原因 最近我们看到它在右边收紧 So that's the reason why. And and recently we're looking at it tightening up here on the right side.
但是 现在它开始渗漏了 就像其他的存货一样 But see, now it's leaking off, just like all these other stocks.
所以这对我来说毫无意义 So it doesn't mean anything to me.
你知道的 如果如果股票还没准备好 我很抱歉 Um, you know, if if the stock's not setting up, I'm sorry.
如果股价上涨了 那么 你知道 我将会关注它 If the stock's setting up, then, you know, I'm going to be looking at it.
但这里 不管收益如何 不管他们是好是坏 这就是问题所在 But again, this here, regardless of the earnings, whether they're great or they're not great, this right here is the problem.
这就是问题所在 或者漏在这里 This is the problem. Or leaking off here.
现在我们需要更多的时间来加固这里 And now we need more time to tighten up here.
这绝对是不对的 This is definitely not acting right.
但是关于遗漏的收益 嗯 再次 收益报告已经开始了 让我稍微讲一下市场史密斯 But as far as missing the earnings, um, again, earnings reports were on, let me bring up market Smith a little bit easier.
R-M-B-S 这里是收益 对吧 R-M-B-S. So here's the earnings that come out right here, right?
第二天的股票价格非常非常高 And the stock the next day is a pretty, pretty huge.
你管这叫漏报吗 Do you call that a missed earnings report?
这是另一个挣钱的支持 Here's another earning support right here.
囤货 超紧 然后从那里起飞 Stocks up, go super tight, and then takes off from there.
我不知道你怎么能叫她 I don't know how you can call that in Ms.
收益 你可以看看股票看看股票对收益的反应 earnings, so you might want to look at the stock and see how the stocks responding to the earnings.
这就能告诉你这是不是一份模糊的收益报告 And that'll tell you whether it's a mist earnings report or not.
a小姐的收益报告真的很模糊 Ms. a real a true mist earnings report.
Stocksman下降 卢卡斯问他们是否注意到 当盘中电量是一个完美的VCP时 运行非常接近日线图上的支点 我不去看就上涨的几率会非常非常高 Stocksman go down. Lucas asking they've noticed that when the intraday charge is a perfect VCP, running very close to the pivot established on the daily charts, the chances that I'll go up without looking are much, much higher.
并避免波动的第1 30分钟赚1小时 等待你的股票拉回你的轴心 And avoiding the volatility of the 1st, 30 min earned 1 h and wait for your stock to pull back to your pivot.
如果它在市场上爆炸了 它打开了 它给你更多的优势 If it blasts at the market, it open, it gives you even more edge.
不过 我没有足够的经验或反向测试来证实这一点 I don't have enough experience or back testing of this knowledge to confirm this, though.
你能告诉我你的经历是真的吗 Can you tell me if your experiences that being true?
我 我这不是问题 I'm, I that's not a question.
很明显 这是一个声明 但我 我不确定到底说了什么 I that's a statement, obviously, but I'm, I'm not sure what exactly is being said.
所以一个盘中组合 a-v-c-p 在一个支点内 一个多头组合 你知道 从一个每天的股票组合来看 它有更高的成功概率 So that an intraday set up, A-V-C-P, within the pivot, a long, you know, from a stock set up that is set up on a daily is saying there's a higher probability of working out.
这就是她问的问题 是的 理论上是的 That's what she's asking. Yes, well, theoretically, yeah.
我的意思是 你知道 我们我们想要尽可能多的安排时间 I mean, you know, we we want as many time frames as possible set up.
我喜欢那样吗 是的 我不喜欢 Would I prefer that? Yes, I don't.
但实话跟你说 我根本没想过那样 But to be honest with you, I don't even look for that.
我 我 我不打算 I'm, I I'm not going to.
这可以阻止你的很多股票设置 没有一天内设置完美的支点 That can deter you from a lot of stock setups that don't have an intra day set up perfectly coming out of a pivot.
但这并不意味着这支股票不会成功 And that doesn't mean the stock isn't going to work.
所以我不会 我会说 你知道 如果你对它进行一次反向测试并看一看 我不认为你会得出这些令人难以置信的有利的统计数据 你知道 你应该等待几天内 我认为 但你会MS的股票数量 So I would not, I would say, you know, if you were to run A-A back test of that and take a look at that, I don't think you would come out with these incredibly favorable statistics that would say that, you know, you should be waiting for intra days, I think, but the amount of stocks that you would MS.
会抵消 我会远离 我的观点是 我会远离盘中图 would offset it. I would stay away my, my point is, I would stay away from the intraday chart.
除非你的短线交易 你想在今天交易 你是你是日内交易者 你可以在网上交易VCPS 但如果你交易的是波动 或者更好的 变动 你要使用日线图 在日线图上交易 Unless your short term trading, and you want to trade in today, and you're you're a day trader, you might You can trade if you want to trade the VCPS off the Internet day, but if you're trading for the swing, or better, moves, um, you're using daily charts, trade off the daily charts.
不要 当每天的收费设置好 他们爆发 交易他们 Don't, when the daily charge set up and they break out, trade them.
不要 不要 也不要等到入学那天 Don't, uh, don't, don't wait for the entry day too.
好吧 谢谢你的职位尺寸教程 All right. Jason Zassin Uh mentioning 1st Thanks for the position sizing tutorial.
他想澄清一点 One point he wants to clarify.
让我们假设你已经完全投入了 你的资金已经投入了百分之百 Let's assume you're fully invested. A hundred percent your capital is invested.
如果情况开始变糟 所有东西都停在了最大损失是8%假设你在所有头寸上都使用8%的止损 If things start started going wrong and everything gets stopped at the maximum loss at one point would be 8 %, assuming you're using a full 8% stop on all your positions for the whole profile.
那是正确的吗 这是正确的 但它不是 但它在提名服从你这一栏也有标记 Is that correct? Well, it's correct, but it's not, but it's under under Nominate defer to you marked on this too.
嗯 它是正确的 但它不是 嗯 嗯 这样的东西会和自己 或可能与马克·里 因为我们不会只带着一个完整的暴露8%停止 除非我们有利润 所以和我 和我高度怀疑也 如果 你知道 我开始停止在8% 这是说我有八个或十股票和停止四到五人 我不会让所有这些股票停止我完全为8% Um, it's correct, but it's not, um, uh, something that the way it would play out with myself, or probably with Mark Rigi, because we would not be just taking a full exposure with 8% stops across the board, unless we had profits and and so And I, and I highly doubt also that if, you know, I was getting stopped out at 8 %, and that's to say I had eight or ten stocks and I got stopped out of four or five of them, I'm not going to let all those stocks stop me out fully at 8 %.
我要加点儿滋补品进去 这样我就不 马克 你觉得这样现实吗 I'm going to put a tonic in on it so I don't, um Mark, do you think that's realistic?
你所描述的 你所描述的是现实的 Well, what you described, what you described is what's realistic.
我甚至会更快 And I would be even faster.
我知道你也会这样 但我不 You know, I know you would be as well, but I don't.
你不会 我不会100%的投资 只是说 好吧 我只买10个 停在8个 如果他们停了 那就停吧 You don't, I don't get to, yeah, a hundred percent invested just saying, well, I'm just gonna buy ten and put stops at eight, and if they get stopped out, so be it.
嗯 我在努力做到百分之百的投资 同时尽可能地将风险降到最低 Um. I'm trying to get to a hundred percent invested with taking as minimal risk as humanly possible.
嗯 你们应该听听那段录音 当时并没有录音 UM And those you guys should listen to that recording that weren't there for that.
但是 你想要增加你的暴露量而不增加你的风险 But the idea of being, you want to be able to increase your exposure without increasing your risk.
你可以通过增加一些止损点来增加你的敞口 或者增加你可以增加止损点的头寸 The way you do that is either by moving some stops up as you potentially move up your exposure, or adding to positions where you can move move stops up.
所以 是的 通常我会 就像我说的 我脑子里会有一个值所有东西被击中的数字 So, yeah, usually I'll, I'll have, like I said, a sort of a number in my head worth everything gets hit.
我在哪里 百分比是多少 Where am I at? What percentage is that?
如果价格太高 我知道我要么停止移动 要么如果情况开始转变 我就开始减仓 And if it's too high, then I know I have to either move stops, or if things start to turn, I've got to start cutting positions.
完全正确 说得好极了 完全正确 Exactly. That's perfectly said, and that's exactly right.
但答案是肯定的 如果你有10个仓位 不管仓位的大小 如果你所有的仓位都有8%的止损点 不管你所有仓位的平均值是多少 你的平均止损点是5% But the answer is yes. And if you have ten positions, and you have, regardless of the size of the position, if all your positions have an 8% stop, or whatever the average is of all your positions, your average stop is at 5 %.
你完全投入了这件事 You're fully invested in this matter.
如果你有100或2只股票 你会损失5% If you have a hundred stocks or two stocks, you're going to take a 5% loss.
如果平均8% 或者说都是8%的止损点 你就会选择8%的止损点 If if they average 8 %, or they're all 8% stops, you're going to take an 8% stop.
如果你投资了50% 所有投资都有8%的止损 那么你的整个投资组合就会损失4% If you were 50% invested and you had 8% stops on everything, you would take 4% loss on your whole portfolio.
但是我不会到我的投资组合中有8%的风险的地步 而且不会到没有利润的地步 如果没有 你知道一切都是可行的 我永远不会到那个地步 But I'm not going to get to the point where I have 8% risk in my portfolio from Principle um, and go get to that point without profits, and without, you know that the things are going to be working, I'm never going to get to that point.
我也不会让自己在8%的情况下止步不前 And I'm also not going to allow myself to get stopped on everything at 8 %.
所以这两种情况不会发生在我身上 So those two scenarios are not going to happen to me.
只要我能帮上忙 Not not if I can help it.
是的 但重点是 正如你在序言中提到的 除非你已经有了利润否则你不会是百分之百的投资 Yeah. And the point, though, that you mentioned at the preface of it, is you wouldn't even be a hundred percent investment unless you already had profits.
所以你之前就已经在依赖其中的一些你不会完全是原则 So you're already leaning against some of those before you wouldn't be exactly the principle.
这是一个很大的问题 大多数人认为 这种急于把钱投入市场的做法是非常荒谬的 That's the big problem that most people see every that this, this rush to get your money into the market is absolutely absurd.
而我 我 我 我把这当做一个高级交易员程序 And I, and I-I do this as a master trader program.
我不知道我在这里做过多少次 I'm not sure how often I've done it with, you know, here.
但不管你是100%的投资 我们只说你有25%的仓位大小 But whether you are 100% in besit, let's just say you have 25% position sizes.
假设你 你 你会自动地在每个位置加25% Let's just say you, you, you automatically are going to go 25% in each position.
不能少 不能多 That there's no no less, no more.
你交易的每一个头寸都是25% Every position you trade is 25 %.
你已经算过了 不管它是多少 10%的利润 5%的停止 你做了x次 我们就称之为100次吧 And you've done the math, you know, at whatever it is, 10% profit you make, and a 5% stop, you do it x amount of times, let's just call it a hundred times.
这样做一百次 你就能达到盈利目标 You do it a hundred times, you get to your profit goal.
好吧 如果你持有25%的股份 一次持有75%的现金 一年之后 你的投资永远不会超过25% Okay? If you were to take that 25% position, one position at a time, was 75% cash, and over a year, you never, ever went more than 25% invested.
你70%都是现金 你会得到和这100次交易完全一样的回报 你每次都能完全投资 然后投资4只股票 完全投资 得到这100次交易 You were always 70% cash. You would get the exact same return as if you did those same 100 trades, and you went fully invested every time you could, and went to four stocks, fully invested, and got to those hundred, uh uh trades.
如果你一次只做一笔交易 你可能需要更长的时间来完成100笔交易 因为你可能会同时得到4只股票 对吧 That might take you longer to get to the hundred trades if you did one at a time than it, because you might get four stocks that set up all at one time, okay?
但在数学上 你会得到完全相同的回报 But mathematically you would end up with the exact same return.
所以我不理解 你知道 当有风险的时候 我急着把所有的钱都放到桌面上 当我想要确保 只是试图完成这些交易的时候 So I don't understand, you know, this rush to get all all the money on the table when it's risk, when I'd rather just make sure, just try to get those trades off.
如果我一次做一个 或者一次做4到5个 如果我在2020年 投资5% 我显然有这些插槽 我将得到相同的回报 And if I get em off one at a time, or if I get em off, you know, four or five at a time, if I'm 2020, 5% invested, I obviously have got those slots, I'm going to get to the same return.
问题是 是这样吗 或者问题是 我不会 我不会每次都坚持持有高现金 直到市场告诉我风险很低 我开始投入大量资金 The problem is, is that? Or the issue is is that I'm not gonna I'm going to stick with that one at a time with the high cash, until the market tells me that the risk is low and I start pushing a lot of money in.
因为这就像你走到赌桌上 你 你你 你下了赌注 然后你开始下注 Because it's just like when you go on the crap table, and you, you know, you you, you place a bet, and then you start pressing your bets.
现在 也许你 也许你 从6号开始 玩6号 现在你去8号 买10号和4号 And now maybe, you, maybe you, uh, start off with the with the six, play on the six, and now you go to the eight, and you buy the ten and the four.
现在你桌上有这么多钱 你有七块钱了 嘣 Now you've got all this money on the table, and you seven out, boom.
你输掉了所有赌注 你一次输掉所有赌注 You lose all the bets. You lose all the bets at one time.
训练也是如此 That's the same thing with training.
当你现在进行所有这些交易时 市场就会陷入困境当你有一个大的下跌日期时 你会 你会受到全面的打击 所有这些名字 而不是拥有现金和管理风险在一个时间看每一个交易 When you've got all these trades on now, the market gets into trouble when you have that big down date, you get, you get hit across the board and all these names, as opposed to having the cash and managing that risk one of the time in seeing each each play.
所以 我总是急着投入大量资金 So again, I'm ever in a rush to get heavily and invested.
我所要做的就是建立最大的仓位来进行数学计算 使其有意义 并管理风险 在这些交易生效之前不要冒太多的风险 I'm what I'm trying to do is get the biggest position sizes on that make math, to make sense, and manage that risk, and never to to take a lot of risk until those trades are working.
如果这种情况从未发生过 那么很多时候市场都没有达到一个点 And if and if that never happens, there's been times where the market never got to a point mark.
这是完美的 去年可能发生在你身上的事情 看看你是否能与此联系起来 This is perfect, where what would probably happen to you last year and and see if you can relate to this.
我也有过保守的时候 我说 你知道吗 我要在这里买几个名字 投资25% 保持低敞口 因为标的表现不太好 There's been times where I was conservative, where I said, you know what, I'm just going to buy a couple names here and go 25% invested and keep my my exposure low, because the mark is not acting very good.
我带着这些小职位离开了 And I shipped myself away with those small positions.
我最终在年底获得了巨大的回报 I ended up getting a great return at the end of the year.
我从来没有完全投入过 And I was never, ever, fully invested.
这已经发生了很多年了 嗯 That's happened many, many years. Um.
我觉得马克 你去年也是这样 对吧 And I think Mark, that's what happened to you last year, right?
大约是5050 这大概是我前五周赚到的一半 因为我们有一个非常好的市场 记得吗 从1月到2月中旬 那时一切都很糟糕 It was about 5050. So that about half the return I made in the 1st five weeks or so, because we had a really good market, remember, you know, january till about mid February, when all when everything really got clobbered there.
那是某种意义上的开始 你知道 在一些成长过程中 那一段更长的 漫长的 艰难的时期 And that was sort of the beginning of, uh, you know, that this longer, drawn out, tough period in some of the growth.
剩下的部分就像你描述的那样 放大 缩小 把球插进去 但是 向上和向下 对吧 And then the rest of the area was kind of what you described scaling up, scaling down, getting jock in around and but, but chipping up versus down, right?
你仍然可以获得巨大的回报 即使你没有完全投入 You can still make a great return, even though you're not fully invested.
你甚至可能处在一个困难的环境中 你要采取不同的方法 用一种更全面的方法慢慢到达那里 You might even be in a difficult environment, just going to take a different approach and a little bit more of a total approach of getting there slowly.
去年我平均持有大量现金 And I held a ton of cash last year, on average, a ton.
噢 是的 我的意思是 我通常持有大量现金 Oh yeah. I mean, I generally hold a ton of cash.
你知道的 我 我 我想进入市场 You know, I'm, I'm, I'm trying to be in the market.
我的目标是在一天内赚完所有的钱 My goal is to make my entire return in one day.
这是不现实的 那是不可能的 但那是我的目标 That's not realistic. That's not gonna happen, but that's my goal.
如果我不能在一天内完成 那我就尽量在两天内完成 If I can't do it in one day, then I try to do it in two days.
如果我不能在两天内完成 我会尝试在三天内完成 以此类推 If I can't do it in two I try to do it in three days, and so forth.
我是我最小的目标 I am my the least of my goals.
我尽量避免的是365天都呆在市场里 The thing that I'm trying to avoid is to be in the market 365 days.
我不想一直待在市场里 I do not want to be in the market all the time.
我想尽可能多出去 I want to be out as much as possible.
这是完全违反直觉的 大多数人的想法恰恰相反 Again, this is completely counterintuitive. Most people think the exact opposite.
他们想进入市场 They want to be in the market.
我不想 我不想在一个下午一个小时内完成所有交易然后就收工了 I don't want I-I don't I want to do all my trading in an hour in one afternoon and call it a day.
如果可以的话 今年剩下的时间都在度假 And in vacation for the rest of the year if I could.
所以我不想冒险 So I don't want to be at risk.
我想把风险降到最低 I want to be the least amount of risk possible.
这就是关键所在 一个关于2月14日市场价格走势的问题 这是大的落差下跌前一天价格走势的巨大逆转对什么 So that's, that's the key. A question about the price action of the markets on february 14, which was the big gap down day before the huge reversal price action on what?
他问的是一般情况 但你可以选择R-K 而不是伯克希尔 Well, he's asking in general, but you could pick up, you could pick the R-K, not be Berkshire.
他在用V-C-P模式提问 He's asking in the V-C-P pattern.
那一天的行动是否开启了模式让你 重新开始 Does that day's action the gate to pattern and and have you, uh, start all over?
还是忽略它 或者你会因为头条新闻的情况而打折扣我不知道你在说什么他在说什么 Or do you ignore it? Or do you discount due to the headline news of the circumstances of of Well, I have no idea what you're talking what he's talking about.
我不知道 好吧 我们那天有个重大新闻 最后变成了 呃 我忘了 头条是俄罗斯 I have no idea. Well, we had major news that day that ended up being, uh, where I forget, the headline of Russia.
但是 市场在非常低迷的情况下戏剧性地恢复 并出现了逆转 But what became a very down open the market recovered dramatically and reversed.
我们谈论的是一般市场 是的 但是他问了A-V-C-P 分析了像伯克希尔这样的VCP模式 We were talking about the general market, yes, but then he's asking on A-V-C-P, analyzing VCP patterns like on Berkshire.
那一天 让你的模式失效 重新设置你的VC剥皮 Well, that day, invalidate the pattern and reset your VC peel over again.
在哪些地方 你会因为头条新闻 新闻驱动的价格变动等极端事件而倾向于打折或忽略天数 Where do you tend to discount or ignore days due to the extreme event of it being a headline, news driven price action?
我不知道你是怎么问这个问题的 但是因为进入VCP的是一种技术模式 所以无论发生什么都会以这种模式表现出来 Again, I'm not sure how you you're asking this question, but because the what's going to the VCP is a technical pattern, so whatever happens is going to show up in that pattern.
所以如果那个 如果那个 如果那个枢轴点被破坏了 是的 那就会重置它 So if that, if that, if that pivot point was destroyed, yes, then that would, that would reset it.
但仅仅因为当天的新闻或市场发生了什么 这并不重要 But just because of the news or what happened to the market that day, that that doesn't matter.
我甚至不看市场 I don't even look at the market.
我的意思是 我在看市场 但我知道发生了什么 但这与我99%的工作都是基于股票无关 I mean, I'm looking at the market, but what's happening, I'm aware of it, but it has nothing to do with my 99% of what I do is based on the stocks.
所以如果市场下跌 股票坚挺 很好 我就会买现在坚挺的股票 So if the markets down and stocks are holding up, great, I'm going to buy the stocks that are holding up right now.
我们没有任何库存 We just don't have any stocks setting up.
我现在就会疯狂地买股票 准备投资的股票 I'll be buying stocks like crazy right now, stocks for setting up.
如果我自己的风险模型在手机上 我还会买股票 If my own risk model is on a cell, I'd still be buying stocks.
我会用我自己的手腕模型来买 I would I would be buying against my own wrist model.
而主干模型是不可能不读的 因为它是基于股票的 And the stem model would be impossible for it to be unread because it's based on stocks.
这种情况是这样的吗 So this scenario would be, is this?
风险模型可能在手机上 The risk model might be on a cell?
嗯 因为我们没有得到运动和指数和新高列表等 当成交量 Uh, because we didn't get the movement and the indexes and the New Highs list and so forth, when the volume.
但是主干模型 事实上 那可能是我最好的设想 But the stem model. A matter of fact, that actually would probably be my best scenario.
如果我有一个绝对完美的场景 If I were to, like have the the absolute perfect scenario.
我希望风险模型是一个单元格 或者只是关闭单元格 通过警报 但不是在一个吨的情绪 空头情绪 大量的股票建立 I would like the risk model to be either on a cell, or maybe just turning off the cell to by alert, but not on a by yet Tons of sentiment, bear sentiment, and a lot of stocks setting up.
我才不信呢 I'm buying the crap out of that.
好吧 让我回到你的问题 Okay, but let me get back to your question.
我只是想确保你们明白股票拥有最终决定权 I just want to always make sure you guys understand that the stocks have the final say.
最近这里有什么人 So what was a few names recently here?
嗯 我们的HBQ 这里有一个完美的例子 Um, our HBQ. Here's a perfect example.
这是我正在考虑的一个 So this is one that I'm considering for.
我还在考虑可能的低作弊率呢 但是今天 我们要把事情搞砸了 对吧 I was considering for a potential low cheat here, but see this day here, we're kind of blowing it apart now, right?
到今天为止 市场上涨了一百五十三点 So now, the markets up to day, it's up a hundred and 53 points.
我在颠倒你说的话 明白吗 I'm reversing what you said. Okay?
截止到今天 这支股票下跌了 Markets up to day, and this stock is down.
这是抵消VCP的原因 而不是市场 This is what negates the VCP, not the market.
所以我们假设这很好 土卫六在这里它在前一天的范围内 So let's just say this stays nice and Titan here and it and it goes, stays inside the previous day's range.
今天我们跌了一千点 And today we're down a thousand points.
我对这只股票更感兴趣 因为它在市场上表现得很好 I'm even more interested in this stock because it held up so well against the market.
所以现在我在寻找它当它开始在这里爆发时 我更加认真地观察它 So now I'm looking for it as the as it starts to break out here, I'm looking at it even more seriously.
但是现在这把我的注意力从这个名字上转移了 因为现在我们在枢轴上有泄漏 如果我们下来 取出这个低点 我们现在可能只有5%左右 从低点 But now this is taking my attention off this name, because now we're getting leakage in the pivot, and if we come down, take out this low, we're only now maybe 5% or so from the low.
我们去掉了底部的部分 这是一个完全的失败 We take out the low in the base, that's a complete base failure.
现在它需要更多的工作 Now it needs a lot more work.
所以 我再一次单独地看股票 我也在看市场 但我在寻找相对于市场的强势 So again, I'm looking at the stocks individually, and I am looking at the market, but I'm looking for relative strength against the market.
我希望看到这些股票在市场疲软的时候能够保持坚挺 I want to see the stocks that hold up, hold in those pivots when the market's weak.
这又回到了A-M 这就是我买A-M 的原因 And again, that goes back to A-M ph That was the reason why I bought A-M PH Um.
看看这支股票的表现 Look at how this stock is holding up.
你看我在这里想得有多好 Look how well I-I have actually contemplate right here.
看这里 这是两个 对吧 Take a look right here. So here's the two, right?
所以互相比较 这就是目标 So compared to each other. This is the mark.
这是纳斯达克指数 This is the NASDAQ down here.
这是Ampas 看他们是如何走向完全相反的方向 This is Ampas. Look how they're going in the complete opposite direction.
和在这里 市场在这里连续三到四天下跌 And right here. So the market comes off these three, four days in a row, right here.
这开始爆发 这只鸭子长肉了 This starts breaking out. This duck is breaking out.
然后你会想为什么它在这里被摘下来 因为它展示了这种不可思议的力量 And then you wonder why it's taken off here, because it's just showing this incredible strength.
这真的很难 你知道 它看起来很容易 当然 我做了 在实时 因为我们 你知道 在过去几周 谈论这个名字 This is really hard to, you know, it looks easy in hindsight, and I did it, of course, in real time, as we were, you know, talking about this name over the last couple weeks.
但这是 这是一种很棘手的分析 But this is, this is the type of analysis that is quite tricky.
如果你不是在基础买入 而是在这种上升类型的情况下买入 我会非常小心地买入任何能抵御这种市场的股票 If you're not buying out of a base, and you're buying this ascending type situation, I'd be very careful just buying any stock that's holding up against a market like this.
但是 你知道 我干这行快40年了 所以 But, you know, I have been doing this for almost 40 years, so
我有一种 股票行情的感觉 I have a certain, uh, ticker sense.
但那是 那是基本的 你知道的 我是怎么看股票的 But that's, that's the basics of, uh, you know, how I'm using looking at the stocks
针对市场 好了 E-X-L-S 这是你定义的双层底吗 against the market. All right, E-X-L-S, is this a double bottom by your definition?
如果 这是低欺骗之后E-X-L-S And if, and is this low cheat that followed thereafter E-X-L-S?
你听我说过多少次 双底 这个词了 Well, how many times have you have you heard me use the word double bottom?
也许你是新来的 但任何不是新来的人你可能从来没听我说过这句话 你知道 几年里说过一两次 Maybe you're new, but anybody who's not new you probably either never heard me say it or say it, you know, one or two times in in the years.
所以我并不是真的在看双层底 So I'm not real looking at it at the double bottom.
我看着它 因为它压得这么低 他摇出了低的 嗯 它试图稳定在这里 I am looking at it as it undercut this low He shook out the low um, and it is trying to stabilize Here.
答案是 这是低级的欺骗吗 The answer is, is this a low cheat?
是的 但我不会买 Yes, it is, but it's not one that I would buy.
左边的头顶太大了 There's too much overhead on the left side.
嗯 对吗 这里有一个回调 所以你可以在3月9日开始购买 几天前 但50天处于一个非常急剧的下降趋势 所以你买低床单时要小心 它们几乎总是低于50天 UM, it's it right? Here's a pull back by, so you could start buying it on 9 march, a couple of days back, but the 50 days in a pretty sharp down trend, so you gotta be careful when you buy the low sheets, they're almost always below the 50 day.
但是50天的下跌趋势越陡 就越有可能突破这一趋势 然后就会停滞 But the steeper the 50 days in a down trend, the more it likely that it'll break out of that, and it will then stall um.
你知道 如果你想开始一个仓位 也许可以在一个较小的仓位附近开始一个仓位 如果它可以建立另一个 你知道 一个相邻的右边 也许另一个欺骗 嗯或或一个手柄你可以在随后的突破中添加它 让那个趋势 那个中间趋势 开始转向 And, you know, if you want to start the position, maybe a start a position near a smaller position, if it could then build another, you know, an adjacent right side, maybe another cheat, um or or a handle you can add to it on a subsequent breakout and let that trend, that intermediate trend, start to turn around.
所以 再一次 这有点 有点可疑 Um, so again, it's a little bit, uh, a little bit questionable.
我不知道 让我们看看什么是E-X-L-S-E-X I don't know. Let's see what is E-X-L-S-E-X.
让我们看看市场史密斯 Let's look at a market smith.
我只是好奇在一个空旷的市场中看到88的相对强势 我一般不会这么做 I'm just curious yet 88 relative strength see in a bare market, I'm generally staying away from this.
现在Sub90的个股 在后期 当它的挑选余地很小的时候 很多路线 走高 elttedstrength的个股已经大动作了 Sub 90 stocks now, in a later stages, when it gets slim pickings, and a lot of the route, the higher, eltted strength stocks have already made big moves.
领先者已经有了大的动作 你开始尝试用一些追赶的动作来交换落后者 The leaders have been big moves, and you're starting to try to trade some of the catchup moves in laggards.
你可以看看80年代的股票 You can maybe look at the stocks that are in the eighties.
然而 当你处于一个空荡荡的市场时 情况是这样的 However, when you're in a bare market, here's what's happening.
最好的股票能撑得住 The best stocks are gonna hold up.
即使它们不上升 Even if they don't go up.
他们会在市场上下跌得更少 他们会建立一个相对的力量 They're gonna go down less in the market, and they're gonna build up a relative strength.
这是你想要的 找90张9的 90张8的 你知道 高的 90的 And you're wanted this. Look for the 90 nines, the 90 eights, you know, the high, the the nineties.
89岁以上就是我想要的 And above 89 and above pretty much is what I'm looking for.
但我想在99 9897 9695 90年代 90年代中期高点 特别是在一个空市 因为那是你将要到达的地方 我想看到相对的强势线进入新的高点 But I want to be in the 99, 9897, 9695, the nineties, mid the high nineties, particularly in a bare market, because that that's where you're going to get And I want to see the relative strength line going into new high ground.
所以有了这个 你知道 你没有真正的 你有一些短期的力量的角色最近在这里 So with this, you know, you don't really have that, you have some short term roles of strength here recently.
但它不只是显示名字 不好意思 我想在这个名字中看到的动作 这里也有一些很严重的减速 But it's not just showing the the names that I I'm sorry, the action that I want to see in this name, you got some pretty heavy deceleration here, too.
你的收入增长从100%变成了25%到6% You went from a hundred percent earnings growth to 25 to six.
这是我的相对减速 现在的问题是 展望未来 如果你看一下估计 好的 也许这是暂时的 对吧 That's my toherial deceleration. Now the question is, looking forward, if you look at the estimates, okay, maybe this is temporary, right?
你看看现在的估计 估计说 好的 2020年30%的增长 或者今年 2023年 呃 我不知道 And you look at the estimates now, the estimates say, okay, 30% growth next year 2020, or this year, 2023, uh, I don't know.
也许 你知道 70%的增长 但在这种情况下 未来两年你将获得14%和11%的收益 Maybe, you know, 70% growth. But in this case, you got 14% and 11% in the next two years.
所以看起来增长已经放缓了不少 So it looks like growth has has slowed down quite a bit.
这也是我使用基本原理的方式 So I this is how I'm using the fundamentals as well.
我知道你们有些人认为我不知道 I know some of you think that I don't.
我只是用技术手段 这不是真的 I'm using just technicals. It's not true.
我把所有的东西都看了一遍 非常仔细地看了一下销售收入和利润 I'm looking at everything, and I'm looking at the earning sales and margins very carefully.
但我一直在想办法弄明白这一切 Um, but I-I try to make sense of it all, you know.
在这种情况下 这并没有我想要看到的力量 无论是在收益上还是在图表上 以及相对强度上 And in this case, this does just doesn't have the power that I want to see, either in the earnings or in the chart and the relative strength.
所以这并不意味着行不通 So doesn't mean it can't work.
严格来说 你是对的 它来自脸颊 And technically, you are right. It is coming from a cheek.
但我认为 这就像玩扑克 就像马克刚才说的 这是一对 你知道 一对6或一对8 But I think that, you know, this is like playing, as as Mark just said, when poker, you know, this is a pair of, maybe, you know, pair of sixes or pair of eights.
这不是a 不是k 不是q 甚至不是j This is not aces, kings, queens or even Jacks.
Andrea在问关于2月10号cpLP添加到Bylert的事情 Andrea is asking about cp LP was added to Bylert on february 10.
嗯 你们可以看到我的笔记 所以 嗯 很好 MHM, you can see my notes here, so, um, that's good.
是的 他在2月2日补充道 Yeah, he added in February two.
二月的时候这只股票可能是你 呃 想出来的 Was that on February this might have been A-A stock that you, uh, came up with.
马克莫里斯 是的 我叫马克·里奇 Mark Maurice set. Yeah, I'm Mark Ritchie name.
这里好像有个叫马克曼的人 还有个叫马克·里奇的 Seems like a Markman of any name here, and a Mark Richie name here.
我明白了 我确实是在这里谈论它 因为我有 我有我的小画 但在这里 我可能在看一个重置 如果 如果 如果 这是我正在看的 我不喜欢它 我喜欢它 I see, I was definitely, uh, talking about it here, because I have, I have my little drawing, but over here with the reset, I was probably looking at a reset, if, if, if, that was one I was looking and I didn't, I like it.
我喜欢紧绷的感觉 I like it if it's stayed tight.
是的 我相信这就是为什么两起案件都没有被掩盖的原因 Yeah, I'm sure that's why it was unvilered in either of both cases.
是的 是的 问题是什么 Yeah, yeah. So what was the question?
不好意思 我问 如果 问你是否可以分享所有的2月10日和特殊的一天 如果你可以展示你正在寻找的设置呢 I'm sorry, asking, if, asking if you could share all that february 10 and particular day, what if you could show the setup that you were looking at for it?
是的 你你本来在这里有空间 如果我没记错的话 我在这里看着它 谈论着它 我想我甚至会 在biler上看到它 想要把它收紧 Yeah, well, you you originally had the space here, and if I remember this correctly, I was looking at it here and talking about it, and I think I'm even meeting, had it on biler um and looking for it to tighten up.
事实并非如此 相反的方向 可能是收益 It did not. It went the opposite direction, which could have been on earnings.
我们把它提出来 C-P-L-P Let's bring that up. That C-P-L-P.
让我们看看这看起来是否像是收益 Let's see if that looks like it might have been earnings.
嗯 它在哪里 我真的听说这里没有收入 Um, where was it here? Um, I really hear no earnings came out actually, over here.
这才是真正让股价回升的原因 That's what actually brought the stock back.
是收入 这其实是个好迹象 Were earning. So that actually was a good sign here.
我们再看一遍 我们当时研究它可能还有另一个原因 So let's take that again. There might be another reason why we were looking at it then.
我不记得具体的交易了 但收益确实进来了 I don't remember this trade specifically, but earnings actually came in.
这是在收益预期出现之前人们纷纷抛售股票 收益出来后股价又回升了 然后就收紧了 This was before the earnings may be uh anticipating um and and people getting out of the stock, then the earnings came out and shot the stock back up, and then it tightened up.
现在你通过了收益 你有了重置 So now you got through the earnings, and you've got a, you've got a reset.
这只是个重置 嗯 This is simply a reset, um?
你去掉了低点 但是当你去掉低点的时候 你把它抖出来 你在高点关闭 然后它又回到了高点 And you took out the low there, but see how when you took out that low and you shook it out, you closed right at the high, and then it came right back up.
这正是你想看到的 That's exactly what you want to see.
这是否意味着我们要买下它 Does that mean we're going to buy it?
不 我们还是想看到轴心 No, we still want to see a pivot.
现在它绷紧了 从这里进去 So now it tight ends up, and it's going inside here.
但现在你仍然有充足的供应 But now you still have all the supply to contendment.
看 如果你在这里画一条穿过主轴的线 你看 我在这里有所有的供应 所以它必须保持紧绷 Look, if you just draw lines through the pivot right here, you see I have all this supply here, so this has to stay tight.
一旦我画了 我将 我将添加到这幅画中 Once I'll draw, and I'll, I'll add to this drawing.
所以我在这里 如果这个保持紧致 或者更好的情况是 利息会更高一点在这个点附近收紧一点 So I in here. If this were to stay tight, or even better, interests way up a little higher in tighten up a bit more around that that point right there.
现在你看到了 它收紧 Now you see it. It tightens up.
它给我们提供了供应停止进入市场的信号 It gives us that indication that supply stops coming to market.
收益已经出来了 它对收益的反应很好 The earnings have come out, its responded well to the earnings.
而现在 当它爆发时 就会消耗掉这些供应 And now when it breaks out, it takes out that supply.
你看 无论哪种情况 我都要在没有补给的情况下服用 You see, in either circumstance, I'm looking for it to take without the supply.
这是我之前画的 This is my drawing that I did prior.
然后这就是我想要的 你知道 从那个点开始 And then this is what I would be looking for, you know, from that point.
但看看它去哪儿了 然后往相反的方向走 But look where it went. And went in the opposite direction.
接下来要考虑的是这只股票 Now, here's the next thing to to think about with this stock.
这支股票已经完全消失了吗 Is this stock dead and completely off the radar?
不 不 它仍然处于第二阶段 但它仍然在一个基地 它开始在这里建立一个作弊 No, no. It's still in a stage two uptren it's still in a base, however, and it's starting to build a cheat here.
现在 让我们再次应用这些规则 Now, let's let's apply these rules again.
这么说吧 这里很紧 很紧 对吧 Let's just say this gets real tight right here, tightens up, right?
也许市场会更低 Maybe the market goes even lower.
就像我之前说的 在市场走低的时候 这只股票的价格会一直很紧 然后它就会变得很便宜 好吧 这是一个好的点吗 Like I said before, this stock stays super tight while the market goes lower, and then it subsequently moves to this cheap Okay, is that a good by point?
嗯 并不可怕 这很便宜 但我们还是要划清界限 Well, it's not terrible. It is a cheap But again, let's draw the line across.
看看你要处理的所有供应 Look at all the supply you have to deal with.
看它是向右的 它会直接进入供给系统 See it's going right, it would be going right into the supply.
那么我在找什么呢 So what am I looking for?
好吧 你知道 也许如果这维持得非常好 你知道 假设市场在一个星期内被湮灭 这个价格保持紧张 那么这个便宜 我可能会想买 我可能会想 但如果不是 我们假设相反 Well, you know, maybe if this held up tremendously while the market, you know, let's say the market just gets annihilated for a week and this stays tight, then this cheap, I might be thinking of buying, I might be thinking, but if not, let's say just the opposite.
市场上涨 但它不参与 The market goes up and it doesn't participate.
现在我要等了 现在我可能想让它建立一个buildmorebase Now I'm going to wait. And now I'm going to probably want this to build a Build more base.
给你下一个场景 Going to give you the next scenario.
多做一些基础 侧身移动 也许可以组成一对 处理头发 然后从这里 从这里爆发 Build more base, move sideways, and maybe form a nice little couple, handle hair, and then from there, break out from there.
再一次 我回到了原点 把你看到的所有供应品都拿走了 And once again, I'm right back to it, taking out all the supply you see.
这就成立了 So it's all going to set up.
我总是会去寻找低级的作弊 作弊 柄 都在基座内 I'm always going to look for the cheat of the low cheat, the cheat, the handle, all within the base.
同样的情况 我要一遍又一遍地寻找 And the same scenario. I'm going to look for over and over and over.
我仍然需要这个技术动作 I still have to have that technical action.
但是现在我所做的是在一系列的场景中运用我的想象力 对吧 But now what I just did was I used my imagination on a whole bunch of scenarios, right?
所以我对这只股票的情况做好了心理准备 So I'm mentally prepared for whatever happens with this stock.
我知道我需要看什么才能对这个名字感兴趣 I know what I need to see to be interested in this name.
这就是关键 关键是要知道需要满足什么条件 And that's the key. The key is knowing what what conditions have to be met.
一旦你知道了这些情况 你就会知道你需要什么情况才能继续持有股票 或者它的表现是正常还是不正常 And then once you know those conditions, then knowing what conditions you need to stay in the stock, or whether it's acting normal or abnormal.
一旦你到了这一步 你可以像我一样画出这些图表 我不想称之为预测 但你可以运用你的想象力 画出你需要看到的 And once you get to this point, and you can draw these charts in just like I did, and and, and, I don't want to call it forecasting, but you can use your imagination and draw in what you need to see.
你有来了 你已经能够有效地交易这种类型的策略 You have arrived. You have arrived to being able to trade this type of strategy effectively.
我不 我不知道这些是否回答了你的问题 但是 对我来说很有趣 I don't, I don't know if all that answered your question, but, but it was fun for me.
你们也可以看到 伙计们 马克看起来对称多了 You could just also see, guys, how much more symmetrical that look is on mark s.
施工图 这比直接从右边跑要平衡得多 Final drawing there. It's just so much more balanced than than running up that right side right away.
当它不再膨胀时 莫顿给它的时间越长让它去拿毛巾 And no longer it builds out, the longer it morton gives time for this supply to get the the towel.
数字 我总是说毛巾下水 你会把毛巾里的水弄出来 Number I always talk about the towel get in the water, you'll ring the water out of the towel.
这样就有更多的时间让水从毛巾里流出来 在这种情况下 这就是供给 This gives more and more time for that water to come out of the towel, which in this case is supply.
当右边收紧时 这就表明供给已经停止进入市场 And as it tightens up on that right side, that's what gives us the indication that this supply has stopped coming to market.
波动当股票来回波动供给 这意味着有很多股票 很多股票待售 有很多交易 拿 嗯 交易 嗯 转手 Volatility when the stock moves back and forth that supply, that means there's stock, a lot of stock for sale, and there's a lot of trading, taking, uh, uh, trading, uh uh, changing hands.
这和你想要的正好相反 That's the opposite of what you want.
你想要它干涸 你不想要供应 不 You want it to dry up and you want no supply, no.
你想让体积降为零 You want the volume to come down to zero.
如果不能在枢轴上 就不能在日均成交量上做文章 If you can't in the pivot, not on an average daily volume.
你可能有一只每天交易50万股的股票 You might have a stock that trades 500000 shares a day,
但在旋转的那天 它在旋转中移动 交换了20000张椅子 but on the day of it pivoting and and moving through the pivot, it trades 20000 chairs.
有些人会对此感到紧张 Some people get nervous of that.
他们会说 天哪 太薄了 They're like, oh my God, it's so thin.
不 这正是你想要的 No, that's exactly what you want.
这意味着供应已经停止进入市场 而这一库存随时可能随着少量的供应量暴增 That means that the supply has stopped coming to market, and that that stock is is poised to explode with just a small amount of volume.
它可以移动得非常快 这就是你要找的 It can move very rapidly. So that's the that's what you're looking for.
保罗问你是如何在你女儿的账户上进行长期投资的 知道你们有相同的选择标准 Paul is asking How you stated you invest longer term in your daughter's account, knowing you have the same selection criteria.
这些股票和你交易的股票有什么不同 How do the stocks differ from the ones you're trading?
在你个人的短期交易杀人 In your personal Shorter term trading kill?
我很少在这方面做任何事情 除非有机会买一些我可以 你知道 我愿意持有更长时间的东西 I very seldom do anything in that count whatsoever, except there may be an opportunity to buy something um that I could, you know, I would be willing to hold longer.
这通常是标普500或伯克希尔的情况 And that is generally with the, um, the S-P 500 or Berkshire.
我现在在那个账户上有伯克希尔 I have Berkshire on that account right now.
这就是我的全部 事实上 现在所有的账户都在伯克希尔 我将从中退出 That's all I have. Matter of fact, the whole entire account is in Berkshire now, and I'll stop out of it.
你知道 如果有什么不妥 我就不插手了 You know, if it doesn't act right, I'll stop out of it.
但唯一的区别是 这个账户 我女儿的账户 伯克股份 涨了 But the only difference is, is, with that account, with my daughter's account, as Burke Share, it's up.
就在上面一点 It's up a bit on it.
我现在已经掌握得很好了 I'm up pretty good on it right now.
我把它买回来了 就这样 I bought it a little back, a little bit um with that.
我要回去阻止它 我要阻止它 你知道 我要阻止它做更大的动作 I'll just back stop it, and I'll just hold it, you know, I'll hold it from a much bigger move.
这是唯一的区别 相对而言 这是一个很小的账户相比于我的交易账户 在我的净资产中 这是很小的一笔钱 That's the only difference. And again, it's, relatively speaking, that's a, that's a microscopic account compared to, you know, my trading accounts, in my net worth, it's a very small amount of money.
因为你在寻找更大的动作 而从长期角度看 你会比平时使用更大的止损点吗 And because you're looking for bigger moves, and the longer term is asking, are you using wider stops than you would normally?
不 绝对不是 你知道 这是个好问题 No, absolutely not. You know, that's a great question.
但是你看 这样做你实际上是在消除边缘 But see, by doing that your your you're actually eliminating the the edge.
就像我想做的 恰恰相反 Like what I'm trying to do, just the opposite.
我要找一个最紧凑 潜力最大的停车点 I'm trying to get the tightest stop with the biggest potential.
人们会说 如果这只股票有上涨100%的潜力 那么我可以使用30%的止损 See, people say, well, if this stock has the potential going up 100 %, well then I can use a 30% stop.
不 不 这和你想做的恰恰相反 No, no. That's the exact opposite of what you want to do.
看吧 风险就是风险 好吧 See, the risk is risk. All right?
当风险抬头时 好处 潜在的好处就不重要了 When the risk rears its head, the upside, the potential upside, doesn't matter.
不管你什么时候当风险最终得到报应的时候 你都可以吹掉你的账户 It doesn't matter when you when the risk finally comes home to roost, you can blow up your account.
你知道 就像不管它有10%的上涨潜力还是1000%的上涨潜力 这都还没有发生 You know, just the same as regardless of if it had 10% upside potential or a thousand percent upside potential, that hasn't happened yet.
好吧 所以我们必须实时管理风险 Okay, so we have to manage risk in real time.
但我想做的是 我想拥有最大的收益和最小的损失 并创造出最不对称的 最大的不对称杠杆 But what I want to do is I want to have the largest upside with the smallest downside, and create the most asymmetric, the largest asymmetric leverage as I possibly can.
如果我 如果我的偏好是一便士的止损和无限的收益 If I, if my preference would be to have a one penny stop and a infinite upside.
好了 再说一遍 我是怎么开始的 我说过我的目标是在一天内获得所有的回报 Okay, again, how I started, and I said my goal is to get all my return on one day.
这是不现实的 但这是我的出发点 That's not realistic, but that's my starting point.
好吧 我从那里开始 从那里开始工作 Okay, I'm starting there, and I'm working from there.
好吧 我的另一个目标是有一个便士的停靠点和无限的收益 Okay? My other goal is to have a one penny stop and to have infinite upside.
好吧 这是不现实的 但这是我的出发点 Okay, that's not realistic, but that's my starting point.
如果我能做到这一点 我就会选择两个便士止损点 然后我就会一直向下 直到我达到最优水平 让我有足够的涨落 而这些涨落不会停留在足够多的名字里 让我意识到它的优势 也不会停留在足够多的名字里 让我达到平衡 我现在有了一个优势 If I can achieve that, then I'm going to go with two penny stop, and I'm going to work down until I get to the optimal level that gives me that amount of fluctuation that is unable to stay in enough names to to realize that upside and be stopped out of enough names where that I strike that balance, where I've now got an edge that.
如果我把它翻转过来 我以某种方式回到原点 If I roll that over, I get to my return in a way
风险最小的地方 where the risk is the least amount possible.
如果这有意义的话 我知道你可能需要运用你的思维 If that makes sense. I know you probably have to use your your think
在这一点上我做了很多 但这真的 我想今天我要给你们讲很多 你们知道 这些人会称之为金块 但很多非常关键的概念是 你知道 关于我所做的每件事的主要概念 以及我如何取得成功的概念 a lot on that one, but that is really And again, I think today I'm giving you a lot of, you know, what these guys would call gold nuggets, but a lot of very key concepts that are are, you know, the main concepts about concepts around everything that I do and how I achieve my success.
或者询问你是否可以看看Vertex 也就是把X作为购买道具的艺术品 Or ask if you can look at Vertex, the art X for as a setting up for a purchase.
是的 你知道 这是一个小基地 Yeah, again, you know, this is a little small base.
你知道吗 我肯定有些人在11号那天 也就是周五的时候 卷入了这件事 Um, you know, I'm sure some people got sucked into this on, uh, on the 11th here, which, of course, was Friday.
在这一点上 你知道 我会寻求全面复苏 Um, at this point, you know, I would look for Universal Recovery.
嗯 你知道 你可以 你知道 有几种方法可以尝试玩这个 Um, you know, you can, you know, there's a few ways you can try to play this.
我也会听从马克的 你知道 如果 首先 马克 你会对这个名字感兴趣吗 I'm going to defer to Mark also, and see, you know, if, well, 1st of all, mark, would you even be interested in this name here?
我的意思是 它在支撑着 I mean, it is holding up.
其实这是我的 但我买的时候用的是很低的 很低的枢轴来写的 I actually own this, but I bought it off the really low, uh, low pivot to write it on right there.
是的 我在三二的时候买了 主要是因为 如果你看这个 和你之前展示的图表类似 或者它相对于纳斯达克的情况如何 看看成交量 发生了什么 Yeah, I bought it there in three two, mainly just because, if you looked at this, similar to that chart you showed before, or how well it's held against the Nasdaq something, and look at the volume, something's going on.
在我看来 这就像是发生了什么事 This just looks to me like something's going on.
所有的体积都在右边 You got all this volume coming up the right side.
这真的是逆潮流而动 And this is really buck in the trend.
我的立场很小 我根本就没有大的仓位 I took a tiny position. I don't have a big position at all.
我想过在周五买凶杀 有点草率 所以我没买 I thought about buying bumping on Friday, it was a little sloppy, so I didn't.
另外 我只是 你知道 外面的一切都很糟糕 伙计们 你们应该交易吗 Plus, I just, you know, to the overall action out there is pretty lousy, guys, so you should any trading?
我一直在做很小的事情 我只是想看看 我们是不是更偏向右边 然后我现在就换个位置 I've been doing really small. I'm just kind of seeing, do we get more of a right side, and then I'll bump the position right now.
你知道的 如果如果我们 我可能更接近收支平衡 Um, you know, if if we, I'm, I'm probably more around break even.
如果我们干掉那50个人 我可能就死定了 If we take out the 50, I'm probably a goner here.
所以 正确的 所以 好的 让我来分享一下我的看法 So, right. So, all right. So let me share how I look at this.
因为我 我一直在看这个名字我对这个名字有点兴趣 Cause I've, I've been looking at this name and and it's been one that I was, uh, semi interested in here.
嗯 虽然我要告诉你们 我要 我要详细地讲这个 好吧 向你们展示并告诉你们一些事情 Um, although I'm going to tell you, I'm going to, I'm going to really get into detail on this, all right, and show you and tell you a few things.
首先 这是关于低而便宜 1st of all, this is about is low but cheap?
你有没有试过 你知道 试着在这里玩这几乎就像在底部钓鱼 但如果你要在底部钓鱼 这就是你要做的 Is you ever going to, you know, going to try to play here you've got this almost like bottom fishing, but if you're going to bottom fish, this is how you do it.
在趋势和上升 走出某种类型的低欺骗的外表 In and up trend, coming off of some type of semblance of a of a low cheat.
然后 当然 这里形成了一个骗局 And then, of course, it's forming a cheat here.
现在 让我们来看看一些事情 Now, let's take a look at a few things.
首先 我想从一个角度来了解一些背景 1st of all, I want to put this into a perspective and get some context.
这才开始变成一场狂欢 对吧 This is just starting to turn into an uptreat, right?
这就是我们所说的早期转向 So it is just, this is what we call an early turn.
你看 它甚至还没有到确认第二阶段上升趋势的阶段 You see, it's not even in a stage to confirm Stage Two up trend.
所以它才刚刚开始出现 So it's just starting to turn up.
这里是200天 01 50穿过这两个地方 对吧 Here the 200 day, the 01:50 crossing the two, right?
当然 它高于所有的移动平均线 And and it's above, of course, all the moving averages.
这很好 很好 但这只是一个早期的转变 So that's fine, that's fine. But it is an early turn.
如果我们看一下 这就是市场上的产品 If we look at it on that's what they're on market.
史密斯 看 你可以看到它几乎没有上升 Smith Look, you can see how it's barely getting an uptren yet.
92相对强势 好吧 这很不错 92 relative strength. Okay, that's pretty decent.
好了 我们现在回去 All right, let's go back now.
每周来看 这里有两次大逆转 所以左侧每周这里肯定有一些供应 Looking at the weekly, you've got two big reversals here, so you definitely have some supply on the left side here, on the weekly.
看看日常 当然 有一些供应 Look at the daily, of course, yes, there's a little bit supply there.
现在 如果我对这个名字感兴趣 在这个市场上 我可能不会买一个早期的回合 并变得激进一点 Now, if I was interested in this name and again in this market, I'm probably not going to buy an early turn um and get aggressive at all.
但如果我周五在这里做小仓位 如果它没有阻止我 我们就说它阻止了我 我们就说我脱手了 或者我没有买 But if I would take a small position here on Friday now, if it hadn't stopped me, let's say it had stopped me, let's just say I'm out of it, or I hadn't bought it.
我要它做什么 What would I do with it?
现在 我唯一能做的就是反转反弹 这样 就能自己把周五的高点抹去 而不会变得更紧 也不会在第二天 或者市场真的很疲软的情况下 Now? The only way I would play a reversal recovery, and by this, taking out friday's high on its own, without it getting tighter or anything much as, say, you know, the next day, or as if the market was really weak here.
我将再次回到市场以及我如何利用市场 And again, I'm going back to the market and how I used the market.
这就是我今天一直坚持的主题 That's sort of the theme that I've been trying to stick with today.
我们有一个早期的问题 如果市场下降了 我们假设市场下降了 今天下跌了800 第二天下跌了1000 这只股票在那天上升了一点点 We have that that early question If the market came off, lets us say the market comes off, it's down 800 today, and the next day it's down a thousand, and this stock inches up a little bit here on that day.
也许第二天从这里出来 然后第二天再出来 Maybe the next day comes off here, and then the next day comes out.
那三天市场遭受重创 我可能会想在反转恢复中再见了 And those three days the market was getting clobbered, I might think goodbye in the reversal recovery there.
好吧 尤其是在市场行情不好的时候我手头紧的时候 Okay, especially if I got a couple tight days while the market's not doing well.
除此之外 如果我还没买 我就只能等了 Other than that, I'm gonna be waiting for if I hadn't already bought it.
如果我已经买了 你也可以在这里买 And if I already bought it, you could have bought it here.
我的意思是 让我们来测量这个主元大概是 是的 4到5% I mean, and let's measure that pivot is about, yeah, four or 5 %.
这很好 你完全可以在周五买入 现在还不应该被止损 因为你现在只跌了2-3% That's fine. So you certainly could have bought it on Friday, and probably shouldn't even be stopped out of it yet, because you're only down two or 3% as of right now.
你可能少了一个 嗯 我将使用最低的枢轴作为我的第一站 这里的低点是我的第二站 You're probably down one. Um, I would use the lowest pivot as my 1st stop, and the low here is my 2nd stop.
所以他可能会错开 So maybe he's going to get staggered.
一半在这里 一半在这里 这样你就能继续干这行了 So half here, half here. And that would keep you in the trade.
但事情是这样的 我还想在早期转弯时看一下 But here's the thing. I also want to look at it on an early turn.
我要做的第一件事是在趋势开始之前测量从低点到上升趋势的变化 看看这个变化是什么 I the 1st thing I want to do is I want to measure the move from the low before the stage to up trend started, and see, what is this move.
好的 40% Okay, so it's 40 %.
所以这不是权力游戏 So that's not a power play.
我之所以这么说是因为这里下降了11% So let then the reason why I say that is because this drop right here is only 11 %.
这是超类型 它几乎没有纠正 That's super type. It barely corrected.
这就是马克刚刚说的 它在这方面做得很好 And that's what Mark was just talking about, where it's held up really well.
回到这里的50天 坚持得很好 Came back to the 50 day here, and held up really well.
所以如果这里涨了百分之百 而回调幅度小于20%或更少 那么我就会买入所有股票 So if this was up a hundred percent here, and this pullback was less than 20% or less, then I'd be all over the stock.
因为现在情况完全不同了 Because now this is a whole different scenario.
这是一场强攻 早期的转折 This is a power play, that early turn.
这对我不重要 我的意思是 这可能是一个充满力量的早期阶段 我完全没有意见 但对于一个不充满力量的股票 没有那种加速 It doesn't matter to me. I mean, it could be an early term with a power play, and I'm perfectly fine with it, but with a stock that's not a power plan, doesn't have that kind of acceleration.
那我就看趋势了 Um, then I'm looking at the trend.
在我变得过于激进之前 我想让这个趋势再发展一点 I want the trend to develop a little bit more before I get too aggressive.
这就是我的做法 So that's how I would play this.
我知道这有点 可能有点复杂 I know it's a little, maybe a little complex.
但这只是有点短的基础 Um, but this is just a little short base.
这不是一个很大的基数 This isn't a very large base here.
这是另一件事 这是一个早期的转折 基数很小 That's another thing. It's an early turn with a very small base.
所以你必须要小心 如果你没有能力玩这些 呃 这些有短垒的早期回合 So you gotta be careful if you don't have the power of playing these, uh, of these early turns with these short bases.
好吧 但他在我们的名单上 All right, um, but he is on our list.
正如你们所知 上周它在biler上 这周它在我的观察名单上 That's, as you know, last week it was on biler, and this week it's on my watch list.
迈克尔问今天 我们能不能过一个父亲节 Michael is asking if today, is it possible for us to have a father day today?
离低谷有足够多的日子了吗 Is it off enough days from the low?
好吧 所以我们已经取消了穿越日的计划 Um, well, so we The fall through day has been negated.
让我们把 让我们把 Let's bring up, let's bring up the uh.
我要指出的是 尽管钟涨了 你之前提到过 纳斯达克下跌了1 25个百分点 And I should note that even though the bell is up, you mentioned earlier, marked, and nasdaq's down one and a quarter percent here.
是的 看看纳斯达克指数 你的反弹尝试就在这里 就在低点附近 Yeah, so looking at the NASDAQ, you had your rally attempt right here, right off the lows.
现在是1234-5678 09 10 1112 Now you're at 1234-5678, 09:10, 1112.
你已经出去13天了 You're like 13 days out now.
所以如果这个市场在这里上涨 嗯 上涨1%或更多 这是一个全天的文件吗 So if this market with a turn up here and be up, um, and to be up 1% or greater, would it be a file through day?
所以你确实有一个收盘低点 So you did have a closing low?
有些人可能会用这个 Um, some people might use this.
有些很有意思 Some that's that's interesting to see.
我不知道该怎么看IBD I'm not sure how we can watch IBD.
所以他们是怎么做的 但他们也不像比尔·奥尼尔那么纯洁 So how they do it. But even they're not as pure as Bill O'neil.
我想我对BilloNeil的方法比对IVD更纯粹 I think I'm more pure to the Bill o Neil method than with File through Days than IVD is.
现在 他们改变了很多次规则 Now, they change the rules quite a couple times.
但是 我还是会把这个收盘低点看作是计数的开始 Um, but again, I would be looking at, you know, this closing low here as sort of the the start of the count.
嗯 一 二 三 四 这是你的第四天 UM So one, two, three, four, you're on your 4th day?
答案是肯定的 你知道 是的 The answer is yes, you know, yes it is.
这里有一个很好的更新 So we had a nice update here.
我们在这里度过了倒霉的一天 We had a fall through day here.
这是一个强劲的一天 成交量增加 UM And it was a strong day with increased volume.
UM这肯定会改善一般市场部分的风险模型 尽管在我们改进模型之前 我们经常等待 看看是否有任何分销 即时分销 UM This would definitely improve the risk model the general market section, although we very often wait and to see if we have any distribution, immediate distribution, before we improve the model.
所以 它可能不会立即改善 但在几天或一个星期内 没有分发 然后 然后它会改善 UM So again, it might not improve it immediately, but within a couple days or a week of not having distribution, um, then then it would improve.
这将改善模型 但答案是 是的 你可以一整天都拿到文件 It would improve the model. But the answer is, yes, you could get a file through day.
好吧 我只是想看看 因为我们还有一两个问题的时间 伙计们 All right. And just trying to see, since we have time for about one or two more questions, guys.
嗯 和往常一样 我看到人们放弃了一些股票代码 Um. And as always, for some of the ticker symbols I see people dropping.
你有在平台上的符号投递框功能让你能够投递符号吗 You do have the symbol drop box feature on the platform for you to be able to drop the symbols?
拿到马克桌上了吗 That does get to mark's desk?
这周末 我就开始插话了 但这周末我把你们这周丢掉的符号都复习了一遍 And this weekend, I-I just started to interrupt, but this weekend I did, I did go through all the symbols that you guys dropped this week.
嗯 我真的 我真的没有发现 任何东西在建立 Um. And I really, I not finding really, anything that's setting up.
我的意思是 R-T-X是很接近的 但是你有那个 你知道的 当然 那个 呃 在周五的尝试中爆发的 D-L-T-R 我们已经 呃 你知道 在几个中有一个小的位置我复习了这些 大部分是在周末 I mean, the R-T-X is one that's close, but you had that, you know, of course, that, uh, that break out on attempt on Friday, D-L-T-R, which we already, uh, you know, have a small position in a few And I went over these, most of these in the weekend.
C和C 当然有H-B-Q 但这是漏出来的 我 我指出了发货人 你知道 他们表现得很好 C and c um, there's H-B-Q, of course, but that pivots leaking off here, and I, and I point out the shippers, um, you know, those were acting well.
齐姆·西姆仍然表现得很好 因此 至少在短期内 我们很少在某些领域失去石油 Zim sim still acting well. So there are few areas we've lost oil today, at least in the short term.
石油的名字 如果你愿意 他们 他们在这里 有点像O-V-V The oil names, if you will, they're, they're coming in here, something like an O-V-V um.
这就是外观 从托运人那里获利还算不错 So that that's a look. Getting some profit taking what the shippers are still acting good.
但这个我在市场上找不到 But this I'm finding nothing in this market.
好吧 我看了你选的所有股票 我和你的工作都一无所获 Okay? Even I looked at all your stock picks, and I'm finding nothing from my work or your work.
现在这个时候 你只需要 你只需要耐心等待 把钱存好 And, uh, just, this is a time where you just have to, you just got to wait and be patient and stick in cash.
哦 去吧 是的 还有 如果我们不回答你们的问题 然后我们会回答很多问题 看起来今天就在这里 因为有很多常见的问题 Oh, go ahead. Yeah, just a also, if we don't get to your questions, and then we get to a lot of them, it looks like here today, because there's a lot of stock questions.
呃 你可以剪切粘贴或者把你的问题留到下次 你可以直接剪切粘贴回去 Uh? You can always cut and paste or keep your question for next time, and you can just cut and paste it right back in there.
伊登在问马克 你有没有想过 Eden is asking Mark, have you ever thought
交易密码呢 我做过加密货币交易 about trading crypto? Well, I've traded crypto.
我做过比特币 我做过比特币基础币 我也做过加密货币交易 I've been in, I've been in bitcoin, and I've been in, uh, coin Base, and I've, I've traded crypto.
事实上 我知道 Um, as a matter of fact, I do.
我是说 我在我朋友卢克·克纳那里搞了个加密骗局 I mean, I'm involved in a crypto spack at the my friend Luke Kerner.
你们中有人知道我不 我是卢·肯纳的朋友 Those those of you who know my no, uh, I'm friends with Lou Kerner.
他是一个 He's a
非常非常了解加密技术 very, very knowledgeable guy about crypto.
他们做了 呃 他们做了清理 They did a, uh, they did a spack.
我在这方面有一小笔投资 但这是一项非常 非常长期的投资 你知道 当我意识到它可能会变成零的事实时 嗯 这是非常投机的 And I have a small investment in that, but that's a very, very long term thing that I basically put in and, you know, and came to Grips with the fact that it could go to zero, um, that's very speculative.
但除此之外 我还把它换回来了 But other than that, yeah, I've traded it back.
马克 你做过交易 你做过很多氪金交易 马克也被提过很多次 你之前说过 使用VCPS和我们在股票上做的技术分析 在一些加密名称上很管用 我们可能会很受欢迎 是的 我当然是 你知道 听着 你说了很多年 这些东西是永恒的 Mark, you've traded, you've done a lot of trading in Krypto, and you've traded and and Mark is also brought out many times, where you said this a while ago, that using VCPS and using the type of technical analysis we do on stocks, has worked quite well in some of the crypto uh names we mighta may be a very welcome Yeah, I was certainly, you know, listen, you've been saying for years, this stuff is timeless.
不管什么资产类别 都是一样的 What's the same in terms of, it doesn't matter what the asset classes.
如果你能很好地发现这些较低的扫描点 它们它们可以应用在任何地方 If you get good at spotting these lower scantry points, um, they're they they can be applied everywhere.
是的 我也做过一些加密货币的交易 So, yeah, I've done some trading in crypto, uh, as well.
当然 我认为如果你 如果你对这些东西有敏锐的眼光 那就是一个市场 And, uh, certainly, I think if you, if you have a good eye for this stuff, that's a market.
这是得到的 这里变得更拥挤了 it's get. It's gotten a little more crowded.
但是 你知道 当这些VCP建立起来的时候 市场越不拥挤 它们就越有可能 越强大 But, um, you know, the less crowded the market when these VCP set up, potentially, the more, uh, more powerful they are.
你在花囊里待过很多次 You are in anthereium a number of times.
对吧 是啊 我是说 这是张糟糕的图表 Right? Yeah, I mean, yeah, well, this is a terrible chart.
我担心 我的意思是 我可以展示一些我交易过的经典股票 你知道 如果我们想的话 另一个时间 因为etf真的很糟糕 I'm concerned. Yeah, I mean, I can show some classic ones I traded, you know, at another time, if we want, because the the etfs are really lousy.
这是 这真的是你差点就在这里买了 从这里出来 然后开口 That's the, that's really the You almost bought it right here, coming out here and gapped.
我不知道你们还记不记得当它出来的时候 我们可以 我们实际上讨论过这个 我想你们已经参与其中了 I don't know if you remember this when it came out, we could do, we actually had a conversation of this, and I think you were already in it.
是的 是的 马克告诉我 我看着这张图表 我看到了这个巨大的VCP 我开始在这里跟踪它 当它实际上在这里 当它开始在这里设置时 我没有交易它 Yeah, I was, yeah. Mark was telling me how I-I was looking at this chart here, and I saw this big, giant VCP, and I started tracking it over here, when it was actually over here, when it started setting up right here, and I didn't trade this.
然后就更好了 And then it got even better.
它收紧 然后我和马克说 你知道 这不是很好追踪 It tightened up. And then I and Mark said, you know, that doesn't track very well.
他已经在里面了 and he was already in it.
我不确定是不是因为这个追踪不清楚 或者为什么 但他已经在atherum了 它裂开了 I'm not sure if it was because this didn't track well or why, but he was already in atherum, and it gapped out.
但这事还是爆发了 我的意思是 这里非常相似 But this broke out. I mean, very similar here.
几周内上升了31% So this went up, you know, 31% in a couple weeks.
所以这是一个很好的交易从这个大的基地 So that was a pretty nice trade coming out of this big base.
但你可以看到 这里还是一样 基数大 对吧 But you can see here, the same thing, big base, right?
得到真正的紧张 在右边 爆发 自然反应 网球运动 没有什么不同 虽然不是很明显 Gets real tight. Over here on the right side, breaks out, natural reaction, tennis ball action, nothing different, although it didn't hold obviously.
但是很多这些 嗯 很多这些加密名称 你有很多很多的机会去购买它们 从低级的骗子 从骗子 从手柄和vcps的突破 在这些加密名称的生命周期中 But a lot of these, um, a lot of these crypto names, you had lots and lots of opportunities to buy them, from low cheats, from cheats, from breakouts of handles and off and from vcps, all throughout the lifespan of these crypto names.
还有比特币 是的 我也可以告诉你 即使只是因为我会筛选前50名的名字 你知道 只是为了图表 And Bitcoin, yeah, and I can tell you too, even just because I'll screen the top 50 names or whatever, you know, just for charts.
这和我们在股市看到的情况是一样的 It's the same thing we're seeing in equities.
他们都在 他们都在下跌趋势 They're all in, they're all in down trends.
他们会得到大量的间接供应 而且都需要时间 They'll get tons overhead supply, and they all require time.
现在 是的 是的 没有太多的酸碰撞的风险 Right now. Yeah, yeah. There's not many acid clash risk.
燃气设备现在都在downtrin Gas sets are all in all in downtrins right now.
人 是的 没错 回顾一下 当我浏览我的索引的时候 我看到了一个RKK 再一次 你知道 看看这个 Guys. Yep, yep. And just to go back, as I'm going through my index, I saw a RKK See, again, you know, look at this.
我的意思是 这是 这是最好的行业之一 据说 海底捕鱼 I mean, this is what, this is one of the best in the business, supposedly, bottom fishing.
你看 这对凯西·伍兹都没用 And see, it can't even work for Cathy Woods.
看 看这个 只是她现在怎么了 Look, look at this. It just she's, what is it down now?
我们又在这里讨论新法律了 Um, we're down here hitting new laws again.
好的 以67%结束 这个 这个 这是一个基金 OK, closing it on 67 %. And this, this, this is a fund.
好吧 这是我持有最多头寸的ETF All right. This is an ETF that I the most of the positions.
该头寸的平均规模约为1% The average size of the position is like 1 %.
有上百个名字 Completely diversified over like a hundred names.
多样化投资并不能保护你 So again, diversification doesn't protect you.
它不能保护你 这是 是的 这是版本 It doesn't protect you. Here's, yeah, here's the versification.
它的名字应该有这些伟大的创新 It names that supposedly have all this great innovation.
凯茜说 我引用她的原话 她说 我们有世界上最好的研究 And that Cathy says, and I quote, she saw a paraphrase quote, she said, that we have the best research in the world.
如果不是她最近一次采访中的原话 那就是她的原话 Those were pretty much her exact words, if not her exact words in her most recent interview.
她说 他们有世界上最好的研究 She said, they have the best research in the world.
这是一个很大的声明 好吧 这是世界上最好的研究成果 That's a big statement. Okay? This is what the best research in the world has produced.
当你在市场上争论 你认为你比市场知道的更多 你抄底 你买那些在下跌趋势中的股票 When you argue at the market and you think you know more than the market, and you bottom fish, and you buy the names that are in down trends.
现在 她的全部乐趣是在一个下降和下降近70%的阶段 Now, her entire fun is in a stage for downtren and down almost 70 %.
所以它必须上升百分之百才能达到收支平衡 So this has to go up hundreds and hundreds of percent just to get back to break even.
你是这个行业的投资者 你很晚才进入这个行业 当时一切都很好而且它是自切片面包以来最好的东西 You're an investor in this, and you got into it late when everything was hopping and and and it was the best thing since sliced bread.
你要想拿回你的钱还有很长的路要走 You've got a long road ahead of you to get your money back.
这是 这是一个教训 And this is, this is a lesson.
它说 与凯茜无关 这是与你有关 还有我们教的是远离这些破碎的名字和 和 和bottomfishing 因为这是Facebook或它的亚马逊 It says, nothing to do with Cathy, this is to do with you, and and And what we teach of staying away from these broken names and and and bottom fishing, because it's Facebook or its Amazon.
远离这种想法 寻找下一个领导者 Get away from that thinking. Look for the next leaders.
等待那些正在建立的股票的建立 并以开放的心态购买你从未听说过的新名称 Wait from to set up by the stocks that are setting up, and be open minded to buy new names that you've never heard of.
这是这是这里的关键之一 你想知道我们什么时候才能真正知道 That's that's one of the keys here, is that you want to know what we'll really know when
当你看到所有的新股票名字 却不敢买它们的时候 我们正准备迎接一个新的上涨 或者成长股的新牛市 we're setting up for a great new up leg, or a new bull market in growth stocks, when you see all new names and you're afraid to buy them.
然后 一年之后 他们开始成为远程码头和帕拉顿 And then later on, a year later, then they start being the tele Docks and the Palatons.
你会问 我怎么没买 And you're going, why didn't I buy that?
你回头看 你会说 哦 这是一个低的 廉价的 是的 因为你的大脑太卡住了 试图通过Facebook来解决问题 寻找所有你熟悉的 你觉得舒服的名字 And you look back and you go, ooh, that came off of a low, cheap Yeah, because your your brain was too stuck on trying to fix by Facebook and looking for all the names that you are familiar with and you feel comfortable with.
别这样 你接受正在建立的新名称 Get off of that. You embrace new names that are setting up.
这就是我要找的 And that's what I'm looking for.
我希望我能找到一个我从没听说过的名字 也没人知道 I'm hoping I can find a name that I've never heard of in my life before, and nobody knows.
它建立了一个完美的VCP 从低点走出来 在全天的文件中 这是我的股票 我不记得3月了 只是为了只是为了验证 这要么是我们的一个电话 要么只是你和我说的 And it's setting up a perfect VCP, coming out off the lows, where on the file through day, and that's the stock I'm when a pile into I can't remember March, just to just to sort of verify, it was either on one of our calls, or maybe it was just something you and I were saying.
但是当它突破100的时候 我记得马克说 这是一个5080的候选人 But when this broke a hundred, I remember Mark saying, this is going This is a 5080 candidate.
那时候它还在开着 And that was when it was only still off.
我不知道 我是说 你知道的 就像docky的标志一样 I don't know. I mean, you know, same with docky's sign.
你说的是方舟 不是方舟 你知道 我真的认为在这80个候选的E-T中 我的意思是 你看看她一直以来买的一些名字 你知道 电视医生 You're talking about Ark, not Ark, you know, I really think in this 80 candidate of of an E-T So, I mean, you look at some of these names that she's been buying all the way down, you know, tele Doc.
我是说 看看这些 看看这些名字 I mean, look at these. Look at these names.
看 他们一直在不断地跳水跳水跳水 Look, they just keep plunging and plunging and plunging.
实际上 我们买了这支股票 Here we actually, we actually bought this stock.
我明白了 我很确定它就在这里 我们现在想象如果我们没有停下来 I see, I pretty sure it was right here at the high we we now imagine if we didn't have a stop.
我想我们就在这里结束了几天后它失败了 I think we got out of it right here a couple of days later when it just failed.
这是 这是 也许这是一个权力游戏类型的设置 但我相信箭头不是我们的买卖就是我们的买卖 It was, it was, maybe it might have been a power play type set up, but I believe that arrow was either our sale or our purchase.
即使这是我们的买卖 我们也是在别处买的 你知道的 不是很久以前 Even if it was our sale, we purchased it somewhere, you know, not too uh, uh, far before.
但是 不 停 看 看看你最后得到了什么 But again, no, stop. Look. Look what you end up with.
还有你 还有这个 And and you and again, this.
看看付费伙伴 你可以看看那些 高质量的蓝筹公司 蓝筹公司 Look at the pay pal. You can look at names that are, these are high quality blue chip, blue chip names.
我的意思是 甚至Facebook 看看这些 I mean, even Facebook. Look at these.
看看这些下降 这就是5080规则 Look at these declines. This is the 5080 rule.
如果你们不知道5080规则是什么 去我的书里读一下关于5080的内容 And if you guys don't know what the 5080 rule is, to get in my book and read about the 5080 roll.
好吧 很多名字 我们都赚了很多钱 OK, a lot of these names, we made good money on.
这是另一件事 我是说 我讲这个赚了很多钱 That's the other thing. I mean, I made a lot of money to tell it.
但你知道 当它在第二阶段 它是正确的设置 But you know, when it was in a Stage two, it was set up properly.
这些在第四阶段 现在 These are on Stage Four. Now.
看变焦越来越低 越来越低 Look at zoom just going lower and lower and lower.
看看这些下降 那些抄底的人 新一代的蜜蜂 那些傲慢的年轻人 他们已经做了几年的交易 他们认为他们可以买任何下跌的东西 它总会回来的 Look at these declines. And the bottom fishers, the new bees, the the arrogant young guys who've been trading for a couple years and just think that they can just buy anything that's down, and it's always gonna come back.
我看过这个 我干这行快40年了 我每次都能看到这种事发生 I've seen this. I've been doing this for almost 40 years, and I've seen it happen every single time.
这和市场环境是一样的 It's the same thing the wants to market conditions.
你回头看看我的推文 看看我的时间轴 我一年前就预测到了 And you go back and read my tweets, go on my timeline, I predicted this a year ago.
我说 我们正在为整个一代人最大的损失做准备 经历有史以来最大的损失 因为市场 在每次回调中都如此持久 回来并移动到新的高点 使每个人都适应 当股票下跌时 买股票是可以的 I said, we are setting up for the greatest losses of an entire generation to experience the greatest loss as ever, because the market, being so persistent in every pullback, coming back and moving to new high ground, was conditioning everybody to that it's okay to buy stocks when they're down.
一旦他们说服了大众 任务控制中心就会打电话进来 施加杠杆 地板砸在每个人身上 一亿人引爆了自己 And once they convinced the masses, that's when mission control calls in, imposes the lever and and the floor drops on everybody, and a hundred million people blow themselves up.
这发生在2000年 它发生在 哦 8号 发生在87号撞车事故中 It happened in 2000. It happened in, oh, eight, it happened in the 87 crash.
它发生的 我已经看到它了 我已经经历了8个熊市中的8个牛市 而且每次在长期牛市之后都会发生这种情况 It's happened. I've seen it. I've seen I've been through eight bull markets in eight bear markets, and it's happened every single time after a secular bull market.
现在正在发生 所以我没有听到太多的人在推特上和你争论整个一年的钻石手和所有的事情 一整年 我在推特上受到了这些年轻的 自大的混蛋的很多谩骂 他们一直告诉我 我不知道我在做什么 And it's happening now. So I don't hear too many people arguing with you in Twitter on the whole diamond hands and all that kind of stuff for an entire year, all gone on the entire year, I took so much abuse on Twitter from these young, cocky pricks that all they kept telling me was I didn't know what I was doing.
现在什么都别说了 因为他们都被炸了 And And now nothing, silence, silence, because they're all blown up.
他们都被揭穿了 而我一开始的那些小秘密我都知道 They're all blown and I have every petty that I've started with.
这就是我的经历 And and that's, that's the experience.
你知道 我要尊重他 就像 你知道 我永远不会 我永远不会在比尔·奥尼尔的推特上说我糟透了 他不知道自己在做什么 你知道 我要尊重他50年的 你知道 大卫·瑞安50年的经验 And, you know, got to have some respect for that, just like, you know, I-I would never, I would never tweet at Bill O'neil and telling me sucks, and he doesn't know what he's doing, you know, I'm going to respect his 50 years of, you know, david ryan's 50 years of experience.
可能是那个人看到了一些我还不理解的东西 That may be that person seeing something that I don't yet understand yet.
就像 我不是什么都知道 但我 你知道 我和拉里·海特以及我的导师交谈 我非常非常仔细地听 做笔记 试着听那些我可能还不理解的东西 And just like, I don't know everything, but I, you know, I speak to Larry Height and guys that were my mentors, and I listened very, very carefully and take notes and try to listen for things that maybe I don't understand yet.
即使我已经做了40年 我仍然每天都在努力学习 当然是向别人学习 Even though I've been doing this for 40 years, I certainly am still trying to learn every day, and certainly from people.
我做这件事的时间比我长 赚的钱比我多上亿美元 I've been doing it longer than me, and have made hundreds of millions of dollars more than me.
不管怎样 让我们运行 我得回去了 So anyway, let's run. I got to get back here.
虽然没有多少交易 但这是非常令人兴奋的事情 And even though there's not much trading to do, but that's something pretty exciting that's happening.
我不知道 我还没提尼克乐的事 对吧 I don't know if, um, I haven't mentioned the Nicklissive thing yet, right?
所以我 我再说一遍 我们不知道 我们还没做 但计划在这周 而且 So I-I I'm And again, we don't know, we haven't done it yet, but it's scheduled for this week, and
我先给你们提个醒 I'll just give you guys heads up.
尼克leson谁 我之所以没说这个是因为我们在讨论这些重大损失 Nick leson who. And the reason why I haven't even saying this is because we're talking about these big losses.
对于那些没看过电影 流氓交易员 或读过 流氓交易员 这本书的人来说 这是一辆完美的赛格威 关于尼克·李森 他炸毁了轴承银行 那是英国最古老的银行 也是最大的银行之一 It's a perfect segway for those of you that never watched the movie Rogue Trader or read the book Rogue Trader, about Nick Leeson, who blew up Bearings Bank, which was the oldest bank in England, and one of the biggest banks.
仅仅是买了一把落刀然后平均下来进入市场 莉莉就把整个银行都搞垮了 UH, purely by buying a falling knife and averaging down, uh into the the market, and Lily took down an entire bank.
这是一个你们大多数人都知道的故事 This is a story that most of you probably know.
总之 有个小组联系了我 我要去采访尼克 我们要花 我不知道要花多长时间 我想花多长时间 我要去哪里采访尼克我们会讨论这个问题和风险 Anyway, I was contacted by a group, and I'm going to actually be interviewing nick leson we're going to spend, I don't know how long, however long I want, where I'm going to be interviewing Nick and we're going to be having a discussion about that and about risk.
然后就可以免费上youtube了 And then it's going to be on youtube for free.
嗯 这将是非常我们将在哪个星期三进行 Um, it's going to be very And we're doing it on, which Wednesday?
鲍勃没错 就在周三 然后 如果一切顺利 它就会被制作出来 可能下周左右就会出来 Bob Yep. So doing it on Wednesday, and then, if everything goes well, it'll be produced, and it should be out maybe the next week or so.
在那之后 不过会很有趣 对我来说也会很有趣 After that. Be very interesting though, and it's going to be a lot of fun for me.
这是我所期待的 So that that's something that I'm looking forward to.
这周我要在这里做一些课外活动 而市场并没有给我 交易的机会 And I'm going to be doing this week some extra curricular activity here, while the market's not, uh, given me, uh, trading opportunities.
好了 这就是80亿美元 真的是10亿美元 对吧 All right, so that that's what $8 billion is, a really billion dollars, is that?
那是什么他什么 他炸掉了80亿 Was that What he What? He blew up 8 billion?
我想这就是那个数字 I think that was the number.
所以 再一次 我想让你们明白的主要事情是 这不仅仅是一个普通男人会犯的错误 So, again, but the main thing I want you guys to understand is that this isn't just a mistake that an average guy makes.
因为在这里我想说最后一件事 Because here here's the real I got to say one last thing here.
这真的很重要 人们认为这些大的基金 这些大的聪明人 这些亿万富翁像Akmen这些人一样交易数十亿美元 他们有一些特殊信息 在某些情况下 购买这些大幅下跌的股票是可以的因为他们知道这些信息 This is really important. People think that these big funds, or these big, smart guys, and these billionaires or people are trading billions like Akmen and these guys, that they have some special information, and that in some instances, it's okay to buy these stocks that are down big because they've got this information.
废话 他们不喜欢 他们的信息 Bullshit, they don't. They have information.
你猜怎么着 他们死于这些信息 Guess what? They die by that information.
他们的生死都取决于这些信息 They live and die by that information.
当你得到这些信息 你就得到了坚如磐石的信息 它甚至更致命 When you get that information, you've got that rock solid information, it's even more deadly.
这就是轴承银行和镍币爆炸的原因这就是长期资本爆炸的原因 That's how, that's how bearings bank blew up with nickleson that's how long term capital blew up.
这就是阿克曼在很多名字上爆发的原因 That's how uh Akman blew up on on many names.
嗯 当然 他们总是用别人的钱 对吧 Um. And of course, they always do with other people's money, right?
当你可以用别人的钱做交易的时候 这很方便 但当你用自己的钱交易的时候 你负担不起 因为你以后没有人可以加入你的账户 That that's convenient when you can do with other people's money, but when you're trading your own money, uh, you know, you can't afford that because you you don't have someone to add to your account later on.
你知道吗 凯西·伍德总是接到电话 You know, uh, kathy Wood just keeps getting it.
没有钱进来 现在人们都在买凯西·伍德的鱼 No money comes in. People are bought and fishing Cathy Wood right now.
他们会说 哦 她下降了70% They're like, oh, she's down 70 %.
还能低多少 How much lower can it go?
他们加了钱 然后她她买了更多 So they add money, so then she she buys more.
它的方便 但当你自己的钱在这里时 你在上面买了 你在上面买了 现在你下跌了90% 你看 没有 你不能增加资金 这是完全不同的情况 It's, it's convenient. But when your own money's in there, and you bought way up here, you bought zoom up here, and now you're down 90 %, you see, there's no you can't add funds, so it's a whole different story.
所以最重要的是 这些大型基金只会犯更大的错误 So bottom line is, though, these these big funds just make bigger mistakes.
好吧 他们只是用别人的钱犯了更大的错误 Okay? They just make bigger mistakes with other people's money.
当你得到这些信息时 你就被出卖了 你的信息是如此可靠 你开始认为你知道的比市场更多 你面临的风险比以往任何时候都大 And when you get that information, you're so sold that your information is so solid, and and you start to think that you know more than the market, you're at bigger risk than ever.
那些被炸的人 最大的是那些拥有最好信息的人 他们他们无法将市场的判断作为非常重要的信息的一部分 最重要的信息 Those of those of the people blow up, the biggest are the ones that have the best information, and they they fail to take the verdict of the market as part of very important information, the most important information.
就像我之前说的 有个会员问我收益报告 Like I said before, memory, had A-A member asked about an earnings report.
我做了什么 我看了看股票对收益报告的反应 What did I do? I went right and took a look how the stock responded to the earnings report.
我不会看的 I'm not gonna look at it.
分析师说应该是0 20美元 结果是15美元 Oh, well, the analyst said it was supposed to have $0.20, and they came out with 15.
嗯 分析师可能错了 Well, the analyst could be wrong.
好吧 事实上 分析师很烂 Okay, matter of fact, analysts suck.
他们中的大多数 他们是可怕的 你去看看分析师 升级和降级可能是你能接受的最糟糕的建议 Most of them. They're terrible. You go and look at analyst, upgrades and downgrades are the worst possible advice you could ever follow.
所以分析师很糟糕 保守的人他们远远落后于曲线 So the analyst suck, and there's conservative they're way behind the curve.
我想知道的是 真正的市场是如何反应的 What I want to see is, how did the market, the real market respond?
好的 股票被低估了 太好了 如果它表现得很糟糕 我不在乎 OK, again, stocks undervalued. Great. If it's acting like crap, I don't care.
我宁愿买大家都想买的估值过高的股票 然后买没人想买的估值过低的股票 I'd rather buy an overvalued stock there everybody wants to own, then then an undervalued stock that nobody wants to own.
看到的 我刚和他谈过 See. And I just had a conversation.
我经常和拉里·海特交谈 几乎每周 如果不是有时的话 I talk with Larry Height on a regular basis, pretty much weekly, if not sometimes.
我每周和他聊三到四天 I talk to him three or four days out of the week.
我们经常交谈 他说过 我说过很多次了 你们可能听过 但长期来看 市场是王权机器 短期来看 是投票机器 We talked regularly. And he said that, and I've said this many times, you've heard this before, but the market, in the long term, is a is a wang machine, and in the short term, its voting machine.
但是他的感觉是在所有的投票中第一名 或者其他什么 就像我的感觉一样 But his feeling is that 1st of all the votes, or what matter, just like I feel.
但他也觉得 我们已经到了早晨 技术已经转移到了信息优势还没有被转移的地方 But he also feels that, as we've gotten to morn, the technology is moved where information superiority isn't so
梦寐以求的 coveted, that the
投票比以往任何时候都更重要 图表化以及能够根据投票来决定正在发生的事情是 voting is even more important than ever, and that charting and being able to determine what's going on based upon the votes is
比以往任何时候都更有价值 那些人比以往任何时候都赚更多的钱 而掌握信息的人比以往任何时候都更容易爆炸 more valuable than ever, and those people make more money than ever, and the people with information blow up more than ever.
这就是我们上次谈话的内容 And that's sort of what our last conversation was about.
总之 我要跑了 放你们走 Anyway, I'm going to run, let you guys go.
我认为这里有很多好的信息 I think there's a lot of good information here.
当然 这总是一个即兴的讨论 所以什么都没想好 但是 我希望你们今天能从中得到很多 我们稍后再和你们聊 监控平台 如果有什么变化 我会把它发布出来 好吗 It's, of course, this is always an off the cuff uh discussion, so nothing's uh thought out, but, uh, I hopefully you guys got a lot out of it today, and we'll talk to you guys later, monitor the platform, and I'll see if anything changes, I'll I'll post it, right?
是的 市场营销 谢谢你 鲍勃 那是我做的最后一件事 Yeah. Marketing. Thanks, bob. That that final thing I did.
想分享一下那个远程医生 Wanted to share that tele doc.
我们是同一天进出的 We were in and out the same day.
为了收支平衡 我们进去了 是的 我看到了 For a break even. We're in, yeah, I got a peak.
啊哈 好 好 好 很好的一个打破平衡停止 Ah ha. Okay, good, good. Good thing for a break even stop.
一个非常好 90%的损失 A very good. What a 90% loss.
我们将在这里发布回放 并保持对整个星期的实时更新的直播流 We'll have the replay posted here momentarily, and stay tuned to the live stream for a real time updates throughout the week.
我很快就会重新开始 And I will pick things back up shortly.
谢谢 Thanks.