1
00:00:03,050 --> 00:00:06,018
Without further ado, David. Thank you.
干脆痛快，大卫，谢谢

2
00:00:11,097 --> 00:00:14,109
Hi. Thanks for coming in the rain.
嗨，非常感谢你冒雨前来

3
00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:18,559
You know the weather can have an impact on how things turn out
你知道天气会影响结果如何

4
00:00:18,607 --> 00:00:21,254
and I'm glad that we had a great turnout here today.
我很高兴今天在这里我们有一个伟大的投票率

5
00:00:21,610 --> 00:00:23,729
I start it out with a picture of the greatest
我开始与最伟大的

6
00:00:23,730 --> 00:00:25,019
entrepreneur that never lived,
企业家，他从来没有居住过

7
00:00:25,020 --> 00:00:28,529
Willy Wonka, so we have a fond appreciation for him.
威利旺卡，让我们以喜欢和感激之情欢迎他

8
00:00:29,566 --> 00:00:33,109
When I was asked to give a talk about entrepreneurism,
当我被要求做一个企业家的演讲

9
00:00:33,110 --> 00:00:37,179
it sort of got me thinking along the lines of,
这类让我思考的路线

10
00:00:37,180 --> 00:00:41,314
you know, well, I've never thought of myself as an entrepreneur.
你知道的，嗯，我从没认为我自己是一个企业家

11
00:00:41,490 --> 00:00:44,219
People sort of use that term a lot and it's bandied
人们总使用这个词，它就流传开来

12
00:00:44,220 --> 00:00:49,459
about that entrepreneurism is like a career.
企业家就像一个职业

13
00:00:49,460 --> 00:00:51,109
It's like something you decide you're going to do.
它就像一些你决定要做的事情

14
00:00:51,110 --> 00:00:53,509
And a lot of people say, I'm a serial entrepreneur,
很多人说，我是一个成功的创业者

15
00:00:53,510 --> 00:00:56,199
I'm going to go do entrepreneurial stuff
我要去做东西

16
00:00:56,470 --> 00:00:58,259
and so it got me thinking about,
所以我就去思考它

17
00:00:58,260 --> 00:01:01,009
well, why do I not feel that way and what is it about
嗯，为什么我找不到那种感觉，它是什么

18
00:01:01,010 --> 00:01:03,409
what I do that makes me say I'm not an entrepreneur.
我做什么，所以我说我不是一个真正的企业家

19
00:01:03,410 --> 00:01:06,709
So I tried to sort of put together some of those thoughts and
因此我试图把同类的一些想法放在一起和

20
00:01:06,710 --> 00:01:09,789
put together some of the things that I feel I've learnt in starting
我认为我已经在这个公司学会的一些事情放在一起

21
00:01:09,790 --> 00:01:13,949
this company and I hope that it helps frame things.
我希望它能帮我框架事情

22
00:01:13,960 --> 00:01:19,134
So just by way of - important to have an agenda -
所以只要通过-重要议程-

23
00:01:19,500 --> 00:01:22,299
I've learnt over the last couple of years,
在过去的几年里我已经学会了

24
00:01:22,300 --> 00:01:23,509
it's important to be organized.
它被组织是重要的

25
00:01:23,510 --> 00:01:26,379
So I've tried to - Greg works with me,
所以我试图-Greg和我一起工作

26
00:01:26,380 --> 00:01:28,114
so he knows it's something I've had to work on.
因此他知道这是我不得不去做的工作

27
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So I'm going to talk a little bit about my background,
所以我将要谈谈关于我的过去

28
00:01:30,060 --> 00:01:32,589
a little bit about the company that we started
关于我们公司的背景，

29
00:01:32,590 --> 00:01:34,264
about five years ago called WeatherBill,
它是大约五年前被称为WeatherBill公司

30
00:01:34,350 --> 00:01:37,499
and then there are sort of some learnings about entrepreneurism
这里有一系列知识关于企业家

31
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and some ways that I like to think about entrepreneurism
和我喜欢的思考企业家的一些方法

32
00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,909
now that I thought I'd share with you.
现在我想和大家分享一下

33
00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:46,669
So I was born in South Africa and
我出生在非洲南部

34
00:01:46,670 --> 00:01:48,604
Cape Town is where I spent my youth.
我在Capa镇度过了我的童年

35
00:01:48,730 --> 00:01:52,614
When I was six years old,
当我六岁大时

36
00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,664
my parents and my sister and I moved to United States.
我父母和我的姐姐还有我一起搬到美国

37
00:01:56,940 --> 00:01:59,794
At the time in 1986 when we moved,
在1986年我们搬家的时候

38
00:02:00,060 --> 00:02:02,979
a partite was ending in South Africa and for
南非的分裂结束了

39
00:02:02,980 --> 00:02:04,479
those who aren't familiar with the history,
对于那些不熟悉历史的人

40
00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,164
a lot of folks left the country.
很多人离开了这个国家

41
00:02:07,210 --> 00:02:11,619
My parents' family, all - both sides of the family,
我父母的家庭，全部-两边的家庭

42
00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:13,079
everyone seemed to move to London.
每个人都希望搬去伦敦

43
00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:17,089
It's a popular place to find oneself after South Africa.
它是一个受欢迎的地方找到自己在南非

44
00:02:17,090 --> 00:02:20,189
And my parents set out on what I would call
我和我父母开始了我所称为

45
00:02:20,190 --> 00:02:22,459
sort of their entrepreneurial conquest,
创业的那种征服旅程

46
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,129
which was to become big filmmakers in Hollywood.
这种征服的旅程好似在好莱坞成为大导演的过程

47
00:02:25,130 --> 00:02:27,959
So they were filmmakers in South Africa,
所以他们在南非是电影明星

48
00:02:28,300 --> 00:02:31,444
work for the public television station there.
为这里的公共电台工作

49
00:02:31,700 --> 00:02:36,329
And they wanted to go in and have a shot at making it big.
并且他们想进入这个行业，并且把它做大

50
00:02:36,330 --> 00:02:37,599
So they took my sister and I,
因此他们带领我姐姐和我

51
00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:42,069
and we moved to Los Angeles when I was six years old.
在我六岁时我们搬到Los Angeles

52
00:02:43,190 --> 00:02:45,914
When we moved, in 1984,
我们搬家那年是1984年

53
00:02:45,970 --> 00:02:49,259
my - the first Macintosh computer came out and my dad had bought one of
我的-第一台Macintosh电脑出来了，我的爸爸买了

54
00:02:49,260 --> 00:02:53,119
the first Macs made available in South Africa and he used MacPaint and
在南非第一个可用的Macs电脑并且他使用MacPaint和

55
00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,779
old ImageWriter printer to print up a sign that said 'Go for Gold'.
老ImageWriter图像打印了一个标志，被称为“夺取金牌”

56
00:02:56,990 --> 00:02:59,289
And he took the sign and he put it up in my mom's editing
他那这个标志并把它挂在我妈妈的编辑室

57
00:02:59,290 --> 00:03:02,959
room where she edited her films and that sign is out there
在那里，她编辑了她的电影，那个标志在那里

58
00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,599
as sort of a reminder that they made this big change in their
作为他们生活发生重大变化的一个提醒

59
00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,229
life when they were young with two young kids in tow,
那是年轻的他们有两个幼小的孩子

60
00:03:08,230 --> 00:03:10,559
and no money to make it happen to come
并且他们没有钱使他发生在

61
00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:11,989
to LA and try and go for their dreams,
洛杉矶并且他们努力在实现这个梦想

62
00:03:11,990 --> 00:03:14,884
and try and make a new life for themselves.
并且努力使他们自己过上新的生活

63
00:03:15,230 --> 00:03:19,409
And I'm assuming I haven't really delved too much into it,
我假设我真的没有太多的专研

64
00:03:19,410 --> 00:03:21,289
but I'm assuming there was some sort of relationship
但是我假设有某种形式的关系

65
00:03:21,290 --> 00:03:25,279
between my parents' attitude towards making life decisions
在我父母的态度对待生命的决定

66
00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,729
and what I ended up doing in my life later on.
和我在我生活的最后结束了做什么之间

67
00:03:29,030 --> 00:03:30,679
So when I grow up in Hollywood,
因此当我在好莱坞成长时

68
00:03:30,850 --> 00:03:33,219
you know I went to the school with all the Hollywood kids,
你知道的，我想和所有好莱坞的孩子一样去上学

69
00:03:33,220 --> 00:03:34,989
but we didn't have a lot of money and there is a lot
但是我们没有那么多的钱并且那里有许多

70
00:03:34,990 --> 00:03:38,729
of unemployment and my parents struggled in Hollywood
不被雇佣，我父母在好莱坞挣扎

71
00:03:38,730 --> 00:03:41,304
as a lot of independent filmmakers do over the years.
像多年来很多独立的制片人一样

72
00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,659
And I was always sort of the kid at school who didn't really have
我总是排在学校的孩子后面，这些孩子谁也不真正的有

73
00:03:44,660 --> 00:03:46,944
the ability to afford all the things that the other kids could.
能力负担的起其他孩子可能负担的起的事情

74
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:48,679
I always thought a little bit constrained,
我总是想一点点的约束

75
00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,809
a little bit as an outsider and not very socially well adjusted.
作为一个局外人，而不是一点点非常良好的社会调整

76
00:03:52,050 --> 00:03:55,889
And it was sort of when I was 16 years old that I got my first opportunity
当我16岁时，我获得了我的第一个机会

77
00:03:55,890 --> 00:03:58,429
to leave and get out of there and try and change my life.
离开并且走出这里，尝试和改变我的生活

78
00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,219
I've realized looking back that was sort of why I ended up leaving.
我已经意识到回头是为什么我最终会离开

79
00:04:02,220 --> 00:04:06,349
I went to Upstate New York to a school for a year where
我去纽约州北部的一所学校上学一年，在那里

80
00:04:06,350 --> 00:04:09,887
I actually got a job working in a pool hall and the owner of
我居然得到了一份在台球厅的工作，台球厅的老板

81
00:04:09,987 --> 00:04:12,219
of the pool hall was really big into playing poker and I started
是真正的大玩家，在那里我开始

82
00:04:12,220 --> 00:04:14,789
playing poker with him and a local bookie that ran the books
玩扑克，他和本地赌跑经营书

83
00:04:14,790 --> 00:04:16,569
for all the sports betting in Upstate New York,
那是关于体育博彩的书在纽约上州

84
00:04:16,570 --> 00:04:18,599
it was a really funny experience
那是一个非常有趣的经历

85
00:04:18,700 --> 00:04:20,738
at 16 years old to go through with this.
伴随我度过我的16岁

86
00:04:20,850 --> 00:04:27,199
I ended up coming back to California and starting a program at Cal,
结束后我回到加利福尼亚州并且在加州启动一个项目

87
00:04:27,450 --> 00:04:30,049
I majored in astrophysics.
我的专业是天体物理学

88
00:04:30,750 --> 00:04:36,049
And since I was a young kid I always said when I was a young kid,
当我是一个年轻的孩子的时候我总说当我是一个年轻的孩子

89
00:04:36,570 --> 00:04:39,069
I want to understand the secrets of the universe.
我想去了解宇宙的奥秘

90
00:04:39,070 --> 00:04:41,599
I want to unlock and understand why things work the way they do?
我想去揭开和了解为什么事情都是这样做的

91
00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:43,669
And I know there is a lot of engineering students in here
我知道在那里有很多工程专业的学生

92
00:04:43,670 --> 00:04:46,439
and I've got to imagine there is a hint of a motivation in
我曾想象有一种淡淡的动机在

93
00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,309
each one of you that says why are things the way they are?
每一次你说为什么事情是这样的方式

94
00:04:49,310 --> 00:04:50,219
What makes them work?
什么使他们工作

95
00:04:50,220 --> 00:04:51,669
And for me the biggest problems,
对于我来说最大的难题

96
00:04:51,670 --> 00:04:53,829
the biggest questions that had never been answered are
最大的难题是它们从来没有被回答是

97
00:04:53,910 --> 00:04:56,269
found in cosmology and in astrophysics and this is what
在宇宙学和天体物理学中被发现，这是什么

98
00:04:56,270 --> 00:04:58,939
sort of drove me to go get my degree in astrophysics.
样的驱使我去拿到我的学位在天体物理学

99
00:04:59,230 --> 00:05:00,809
And while I was at school,
我在学校时

100
00:05:00,810 --> 00:05:04,543
I got a job as an undergrad doing some work at Lawrence Berkeley Labs
我作为一个本科生做了一些工作在劳伦斯伯克实验室

101
00:05:04,643 --> 00:05:06,969
and it's sort of like getting inside the sausage factory.
他有点像里面的香肠工厂

102
00:05:07,230 --> 00:05:09,499
When you work at these Department of Energy labs,
当你工作在这些部门的能源实验室

103
00:05:09,500 --> 00:05:13,239
you really see sort of what is it about the scientific
你才真的看到什么是科学

104
00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,729
breakthroughs that people win Nobel prizes for, how does it all work?
人们获得诺贝尔奖的突破，这一切是如何工作的？

105
00:05:16,730 --> 00:05:18,569
And I know that there is probably some folks here who might
我知道，有可能一些人在这里，这些人可能

106
00:05:18,570 --> 00:05:21,159
work at SLACK or might have some experience similarly.
松弛或同样的可能有些经验

107
00:05:21,370 --> 00:05:25,719
But I always thought as a kid fantastically like Albert Einstein
但是我一直认为一个像爱因斯坦的孩子

108
00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,579
sat in a room and with a piece of paper and a pencil he solved the
坐在一个房间里，一张纸，一支笔，他解决了

109
00:05:28,580 --> 00:05:30,679
secrets of universe and wrote the general theory of relativity.
宇宙的奥秘并且写下了广义相对论

110
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:31,924
That's how it works, right?
那它是如何做到的，对不对？

111
00:05:32,100 --> 00:05:34,119
No, there is a machine and it takes forever and there
不，是一台机器，他永远有成千上万的人参与进来

112
00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,039
is thousands of people involved and the degree of impact
影响的程度

113
00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,969
at which and the pace at which things progressed,
事情的进展

114
00:05:41,250 --> 00:05:43,769
I found frustrating and I realized
我发现了令人沮丧的并且我意识到

115
00:05:43,770 --> 00:05:45,869
it's not the life I wanted to live.
那不是我想要的生活

116
00:05:46,390 --> 00:05:53,349
While I was an undergrad in 1998 to 2000 there was this dotcom bubble
在1998年到2000年虽然我是一个本科生，网络泡沫时代

117
00:05:53,350 --> 00:05:56,219
going on and it might be read about in the history books nowadays,
正在继续，现在它可能在历史书中被读取

118
00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,333
I'm really surprised because I walk in I feel old.
我真的很惊讶因为我觉得我步入了老年时代

119
00:06:00,010 --> 00:06:03,349
And so like this was 10 years ago when I graduated,
我喜欢十年前当我毕业那时

120
00:06:03,350 --> 00:06:08,559
but - so at the time the dotcom bubble was going on
但是-当时互联网泡沫已经在进行

121
00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,399
and I'd start to read the Wall Street Journal.
我开始读华尔街日报

122
00:06:10,460 --> 00:06:11,559
I thought it was really interesting,
我认为那是真的很有趣

123
00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,199
like these crazy ideas coming out of Silicon Valley and people
这些疯狂的想法一样走出硅谷并且人们

124
00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,589
are doing crazy stuff and they're seemingly changing the world.
做一些疯狂的事情，他们似乎正在改变着世界

125
00:06:17,620 --> 00:06:20,669
The world is changing before my very eyes and around the world in
这个世界正在我的眼前和我所生活的世界改变着

126
00:06:20,670 --> 00:06:23,249
which I live and I read these stories in the Wall Street Journal,
我在华尔街日报中读到这些事情

127
00:06:23,250 --> 00:06:25,079
I remember I love the marketplace section because
我记得我喜欢市场因为

128
00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:28,099
it was like profiles of people doing cool stuff.
它就像型材做很酷的东西的人

129
00:06:28,100 --> 00:06:29,939
And I thought this is want I want to do.
我认为我想我就去做

130
00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,499
Rather than sit in the dark room and just be part of a cog
而不是坐在黑暗的房间，仅仅是一个齿轮

131
00:06:33,500 --> 00:06:35,889
in a machine that was going to take forever to output some
在一台将会永远运转的机器上去输出一些

132
00:06:35,890 --> 00:06:38,629
theory that may or may not be disproven 50 years later,
50年后可能或不可能被证伪的原理

133
00:06:38,820 --> 00:06:40,479
I wanted to be able to go out and do something that
我希望能出去做一些事情

134
00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,339
was impactful and would have lasting change in the
有影响力并且将会在世界上持久变化的事情

135
00:06:42,340 --> 00:06:44,119
world and I could control my own destiny,
我能控制我自己的命运

136
00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,324
I could make that happen in the time that I live on this earth.
我想在我有生之年我可以实现

137
00:06:47,580 --> 00:06:50,124
And it was really exciting to me.
那是如此的令我兴奋

138
00:06:50,260 --> 00:06:51,799
Towards the end of my undergrad career,
我的本科生涯接近尾声

139
00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:53,549
so I said I want to go and do technology stuff
所以我说我想去做并且做一些有技术的东西

140
00:06:53,550 --> 00:06:55,159
and I want to go do the Silicon Valley stuff.
我想去做硅谷的东西

141
00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:56,644
So towards the end of my career,
在我本科生涯接近尾声

142
00:06:56,850 --> 00:07:00,169
it became clear this dotcom bubble was blowing up and there
互联网的热潮掀起来了变得清晰

143
00:07:00,170 --> 00:07:02,129
were all sorts of problems in Silicon Valley and around that
有一系列的问题在我在硅谷的那段时间

144
00:07:02,130 --> 00:07:06,069
time I got a job in investment banking when I graduated.
当我毕业时我在投资银行找到了工作

145
00:07:06,070 --> 00:07:08,349
Because that was like the one thing that seem like oh,
因为这是件令人喜欢的事情，似乎很喜欢哦

146
00:07:08,350 --> 00:07:12,059
it's a good job, you can actually make a - that's
它是份好工作，你可以做一个-这是

147
00:07:12,180 --> 00:07:14,254
The Secret of My Success, Michael J. Fox.
我成功的秘密，迈克尔J.福克斯

148
00:07:17,585 --> 00:07:19,269
The - that's the one job that everyone sort
那是一份很好的工作每个人都

149
00:07:19,270 --> 00:07:20,979
of say that's a good profile job,
说那是一个很有利润的工作

150
00:07:20,980 --> 00:07:22,439
you will learn a lot about how technology works,
你将会学习很多关于技术的工作原理如何

151
00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,254
so I was doing technology investment banking,
所以我是做技术的投资银行

152
00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,469
we basically advice companies on acquisitions and when I started
我们基本上建议公司收购和当我开始时

153
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there was 11 people in my investment banking analyst class,
在我的投资银行有11个投资分析师

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and two years later there were only two of us left.
两年后只有我们两个人离开了

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It was like the great contraction,
这就像伟大的收缩

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I'd call it, of Silicon Valley that I got to sit through and watch dozens
我坐下来观看数十家公司

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of companies and I worked on about 20 acquisitions at the time,
我的工作时间约20收购硅谷

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and I got to feel these companies and sort of the CEO that started
我去感受这些公司并且开始这些事情的CEO排序

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these things and the failures that they went through and the
他们经历了失败并且历经挑战

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challenges and they are selling these companies off because it's
他们卖掉这些公司因为它

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a frenzy and it's a disaster and so on and so forth.
一个收购和这是一个灾难等等，等等

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Then I did a little work in private equity and during the time I was
然后我做了一点点工作在私募投资期间

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focused on finding investments to make an
我都在寻找投资以使

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online advertising company. So it was really cool,
在线公告公司，因此那是真的酷

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I got to see all these different businesses and how they worked
我去观察所有不同的商业以及他们是怎样工作的

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and how they operated and I learnt a lot about Google at the time
他们怎样操作，在那期间我学了许多关于Google的知识

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and how Google was doing when it was a growing-up company.
Google是怎样运作的当它还是一间成长的公司

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There's about less than 1,000 people there at the time.
在那时那里大约有不到1000人

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There was clearly a future in front of it,
在它有明确的未来

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it was still a private company,
它仍然是一间私企公司

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very secretive, but there is a good understanding
非常遮遮掩掩，但是有一个很好的解释

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of sort of what was going on there.
在那里发生了什么事情

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And they were forming a corporate development team,
他们形成了企业的开发团队

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and so I took advantage of the opportunity and
所以我趁这个机会

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joined because let's see how a business works.
加入了，因为让我们看到一个企业是如何工作的

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This is something that's interesting and exciting and I've never
有一些有趣和兴奋的事情发生了，我从来没有

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actually worked at a company and see how these companies work.
在这家公司真正工作，看到这些公司怎样工作的

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And the exciting part about private equity was you
关于私募股份投资的令人兴奋的部分是你

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could invest in these businesses and see them grow.
能在这些商业投资并且看它们成长

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Well now you could actually be a part of it,
现在你能真正成为它的一部分

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so that's why I made the move to Google and I learnt more
因此那就是为什么我能搬去谷歌，并且在谷歌学到更多

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in Google than I did at any other point in my career,
比我工作生涯的其他地方

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in my life for that matter because there was so much going on,
对于这个问题，因为在我的生活里有这么多的事情

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by the time I left Google there was over 10,000 people.
在我离开谷歌时，那里有10000

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And I left Google to start WeatherBill.
我离开谷歌后创立了WeatherBill公司

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So let me tell you the story.
因此让我来告诉你这个故事

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In 2002 I used to drive past the - down the Embarcadero
在2002年我曾赶过去-Embarcadero公司下班前

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to get on the 280 to go to work.
目的是获得280去上班

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Sorry, to get on the 280 then 101 to go to work in Foster City.
对不起，坐280然后倒101去在Foster城市的地方工作

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I mean it's a drive past this place called The Bike Hut,
我的意思是这个赶过去的地方是叫做The Bike Hut

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it's right next to AT&T Park on the Embarcadero.
它是在AT&T公园的右边

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And they rent bicycles to tourists and they
他们给游客租用自行车

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ride them around on the waterfront.
他们在周围的海滨骑自行

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And at the time when I was doing investment banking,
在那时，当我正在投资银行工作

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you know, I was learning about finance and I was learning
你知道，我学习了关于金融，我学习了关于

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about business and how managers think about their P&L,
商业还有管理者如何思考他们的P&L

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and their operating and their income statements and so on.
他们的操作和他们的损益表等等

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And every day it was raining, The Bike Hut would be closed.
每到下雨的时候， Bike Hut将会关闭

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So the guy wouldn't even come in and open up shop because tourists
因此他们不能进入和开店因为游客

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aren't renting bikes and riding around in the rain.
不能租自行车，不能在雨中骑自行车

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So the dude didn't even show up to work.
所以伙计甚至没有露面工作

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And I thought that's a pretty crappy business,
我想，这是一个相当糟糕的经营

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like whether or not this guy is going to make money in
喜欢与否这家伙是要赚钱的在

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a given month it's based on how many days it rains.
一个给定的月份，它基于多少天下雨

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And so you start to think well that's actually a big problem.
因此你开始很好的思考这真的是一个大问题

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Do you ever go to the movie theater on a Sunday when it's raining?
你会在周日下雨天去电影院吗？

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There's like so many people in the movie theatre and
像许多人在电影院

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the coffee shops are packed when it's raining.
和咖啡厅停下当下雨的时候

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No one goes to the ski resorts when it's warm and it hasn't snowed.
没有人去的滑雪胜地，当它温暖的时候，那里没有雪

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So like you start to think about it and it
因此当你开始思考它，它

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turns out that - and I love the statistic, this is our big number,
的结果是-我喜欢统计结果，我们中的大多数

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the 70% of businesses are affected by the weather every year.
每年70%的商业被天气影响

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So years later when I was at Google,
多年后当我在谷歌时

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I came back to this idea about sort of all the
我回想那个问题，关于全世界

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world's businesses affected by the weather,
的生意被气候所影响

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maybe there is something they can do about it.
也许有一些事情他们可以去做

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And we can sell coverage to pay them if bad weather happens,
如果坏的天气发生时我们能够卖覆盖率去补偿他们

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making it easier for them to run and manage their businesses.
对于他们的经营和他们的生意使其简单

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70% of the world's businesses,
世界上70%的生意

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you know, $4 trillion of the GDP in the United States
你知道，在美国国内生产总值4万亿美元

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each year and at the time I was working at Google,
每年，在那时我还在谷歌工作

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working on AdWords and this idea of sort of taking lots of
工作在AdWords，这一想法的形成依赖于大量的

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data and being able to extract signal from it and determine
数据，能够从它提取信息，并且决定

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some sort of fee or charge that one would make to a customer
经营者的费用和收费

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in the case of Google advertisers could apply here.
在这种情况下，谷歌的广告客户可以申请在这里

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We could analyze weather data,
我们可以分析气象数据

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we could determine the probability of future weather events
我们能决定将来天气发生变化的可能性

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occurring and we could sell you coverage that would pay
我们能卖给你报道，在你付款的时候

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you if bad weather were to happen to your business.
如果坏的天气发生在你的生意中

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And so if you know that the bad weather
如果你知道坏天气

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is going to cause a loss of $100,
将导致100美元的损失

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well then you want to get paid $100 when that bad weather happens.
然后你想获得100美元的补偿，当坏的天气发生时

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And so we will give you a price to cover that because we will be
此时我们将会给你一个价格去补偿因为我们将

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able to figure out the probable - the probability of that event occurring
有能力弄清楚可能性-每件事情发生的可能性

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and we will charge you an appropriate charge to cover you.
我们会向您收取适当的费用以弥补你

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And there's no claims process or proof of
有没有索赔过程或证明

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loss because we can monitor the weather,
损失因为我们能气象监测

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there is all these data feeds available now.
现在有许多可利用的数据

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So choose a weather station where we have a data feed
因此，选择一个气象站，我们有一个数据资料

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and we will monitor the weather automatically and
我们将自动气象监测

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we will trigger a check to you if it happens.
如果它发生，我们将开支票给你

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So big problem, huge global market opportunity.
如此大的问题，巨大的全球市场机遇

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The first step was building a basic sort of prototype.
第一步是建立一个基本的模型

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So this was our first prototype, can you see that okay? Yeah, cool.
因此，这是我们的第一个原型，你看这样行不行？是啊，爽

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It's pretty good looking website.
这是相当不错的网站

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00:11:39,220 --> 00:11:42,869
So I wrote a prototype - the first thing
因此我的第一件事是写一个原型

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I did was buy some weather data.
我买一些天气的数据

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So you got to - we bought some weather data for about 200 stations
因此你知道-我从200个气象站买天气数据

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00:11:48,270 --> 00:11:52,804
and we got availability on feeds into those 200 weather stations.
我们得到了200个气象站供应的资料

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00:11:52,990 --> 00:11:55,359
So we can now monitor 200 weather stations and we
所以，我们现在可以监测200个气象观测站

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knew what the history was going back 30 years.
我们知道的历史大约是30十年前

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And so the first pricing engine was written in R.
所以在R写入首个定价引擎

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Everyone here are familiar with R, right,
对的，每个在这里的人都熟悉R

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so it's like open source, you can thread a Java Connector and
因此太像一个开放性的资源，你能线程Java连接器

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then you can write a front-end app,
你可以写一个前端应用程序

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now you've got a website that uses R to price stuff.
现在你已经有一个网站，使用R价格的东西

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And so we were able to use the data that we had bought and so
因此我们能去使用我们购买的数据

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when you typed in the dates of coverage you wanted and choose
当你输入你想覆盖日期并选择

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your weather station and say what do you want to get paid for?
你的气象站，说出你想获得的赔偿

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I want to get paid $1,000 every day it rains more than a quarter inch
我想在每个雨天获得1000美元比四分之一英寸

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as measured at the Stanford Campus.
测量在斯坦福大学的校园

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So we would take the appropriate weather data,
因此我们将采取适当的天气数据

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look at the last 30 years of history,
看看在过去的30多年的历史

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get a distribution, fit a distribution model to the empirical
得到一个分布，适合分销模式的经验

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data and we will be able to use that to calculate the expected
数据，我们将能够用它来计算预期

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loss on that product and be able to figure out what we should
在该产品上的损失，并能够找出我们应该

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charge you to cover you against that occurring.
告诉您以免其发生

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So that was the very simplistic prototype and we could use that
所以这是非常简单的原型，我们能

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to then go and ask people for money to start this business.
去付钱请人开始这件生意

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So the first guy to give us money was a guy named Danny Rimer
所以，首先给我们钱的家伙，是一个叫丹尼·里默

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who works at a venture fund called Index Ventures.
他工作在一个称为Index Ventures的风险投资基金公司。

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He wrote us a check for $300,000
他写给我们一张300000的支票

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which I then was able to quit Google and
这使我离开谷歌

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go and say comfortable enough to do this.
去并且说足够舒服的做这些

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And when I quit Google I left a lot of stock on the
但我离开谷歌的时候我在桌上留下了许多股票

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table and a lot of money behind and I didn't have a
许多钱，我没有多少钱

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lot of money at the time and it was kind of like,
在那时，它是那种喜欢

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well, you know, why not,
哎，你知道，为什么不

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like let's just take advantage of this opportunity we
像我们正好趁这个机会我们

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00:13:10,830 --> 00:13:14,179
have in life and when you're presented with opportunities
生活中所拥有的机会，当你抓住这个机会

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where you feel you can make a really big impact,
你能感受到你真正的做到大的影响

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it's worth doing it in light of the sort of comfort of not doing it.
他值得做就没有那种舒服与否

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So the first step was to raise more money because $300,000
因此第一步是赚更多的钱，因为300000

284
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was enough to get things going,
足够获得这些事情

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00:13:24,850 --> 00:13:26,959
but to hire folks to work for us and try and recruit
但是雇佣员工工作并且设法招聘

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00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,379
them we needed to raise a Series A round or a seed
他们，我们需要提高A系列的人才

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00:13:29,380 --> 00:13:31,369
round of funding from angel investors.
从天使般的投资人中

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00:13:31,370 --> 00:13:33,199
So we went across the Silicon Valley,
于是我们去了整个硅谷

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00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,654
Sand Hill Road and all the VCs that we met with said no,
沙山路上，所有的VC，我们会见了说没有，

290
00:13:36,780 --> 00:13:40,089
including some who are now investors in the company many years later.
包括那些多年后公司的投资者

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You can never hold a grudge in Silicon Valley.
在硅谷，你可以从不记仇

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There is always smile and say I will take your check,
总是微笑着说：我会接受你的支票，

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thank you very much. So we completely failed at raising money.
非常感谢。因此，我们完全没有在筹集资金。

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Because when we went to these VCs they were like,
因为他们喜欢当我们去这些VC的时候

295
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we are going to start this business that pays people for bad weather
我们将要开始这个支付人恶劣天气生意


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and they can choose the weather they want to get paid for and we
他们可以选择他们想要得到支付的天气

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will figure out the probability and we will cover them.
我们会弄清楚的概率，我们将覆盖它们。

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Like that is not an X for Y business.
像那不是一个X对Y业务

299
00:14:02,700 --> 00:14:04,739
I call them X for Y, it's like Groupon for moms,
我称他们为X为?，它像Groupon的妈妈

300
00:14:04,740 --> 00:14:08,029
like it's a lot easier for people to understand something in the
像它的很多更容易为人们所理解的东西在

301
00:14:08,030 --> 00:14:10,729
context of how they're already operating when the context of other
就像人们很简单的理解上下文一样，

302
00:14:10,730 --> 00:14:13,389
business models are in the context of how things operate today.
当代处于其他的商业模式操作的情况他们在已经操作了很多。

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So to sort of come at this from a fundamental problem
所以从这一个根本的问题可以得出，

304
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with what we think is a good technology solution
我们认为

305
00:14:19,220 --> 00:14:21,349
was sort of a little bit challenging to sell.
有挑战的销售是一个很好的技术解决方案。

【306
00:14:21,550 --> 00:14:23,559
And granted, we probably weren't doing a good job selling

307
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,389
at the time and over time we refined the pitch and we refined

308
00:14:27,390 --> 00:14:30,279
the story and this is a completely greenfield,

309
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,419
no one knows what's going to happen with what we're doing.】
进一步，在当时和随后一段时间我们可能没有做好销售工作，我们精练了议案，我们精炼了情节，这是一个完全新建的，没有人知道我们正做的会发生什么。

【310
00:14:32,940 --> 00:14:36,409
So luckily I knew a lot of people that had a lot

311
00:14:36,410 --> 00:14:38,339
of money because I had worked at Google and company

312
00:14:38,340 --> 00:14:40,319
had gone public and people had done well.】
幸运的是，我曾在谷歌公司处事很好，因此我认识了很多有钱人。

【313
00:14:40,390 --> 00:14:41,824
So I raised money from them.】
因此，我向他们借钱。

【314
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:45,359
And so we raised about $2 million from what I would call

315
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,969
angel investor friends and we started this thing and later

316
00:14:48,970 --> 00:14:52,144
on Index Ventures and NEA gave us another $2 million note

317
00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:56,134
and we sort of - we are able to start hiring people.】
因此，我们从我所说的天使投资人的朋友那里筹集了约200万美元，我们开始这个项目，后来Index Ventures和NEA公司另外给了我们200万美元，我们能够开始雇人了。

【318
00:14:56,430 --> 00:14:59,079
So this was our launch.】

因此，我们的项目开始启动了。

【319
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,129
We launched in January of 2007,
我们启动于2007年1月，

320
00:15:01,130 --> 00:15:02,789
this is the best picture I could find.】
这是我能找到的最好的图片。

【321
00:15:02,790 --> 00:15:05,459
I did a Google image search for phone booth in the middle

322
00:15:05,460 --> 00:15:09,284
of a field because that sort of what it felt like, right.】
我在一个电话亭中央做了张谷歌图片搜索的图片，像右边那种样子的一样。

【323
00:15:09,380 --> 00:15:11,669
We did this great big build, right.】
我们这样做的是大项目，对吧。

【324
00:15:11,670 --> 00:15:14,849
We were like 24x7, no sleep for months

325
00:15:14,850 --> 00:15:17,229
before we launched in January of 2007.】
我们在2007年1月启动之前，全天候工作，一整月没好好睡觉。

【326
00:15:17,530 --> 00:15:20,579
And the idea was we would put that great website you just saw,

327
00:15:20,770 --> 00:15:24,149
made it available to the world and the 70% of businesses

328
00:15:24,150 --> 00:15:27,529
that had problems with the weather or were exposed to the

329
00:15:27,530 --> 00:15:29,039
weather would all show up and they would finally say,

330
00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,664
finally I'm a lemonade stand owner,

331
00:15:31,690 --> 00:15:33,239
I've always wanted to buy this product,

332
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,174
I'm still glad you put the WeatherBill website up.】
我们的的想法是，把你刚才看到的一个很棒的网站，供世界所有人使用，另外70％受天气影响的生意，或者在天气变化时暴漏出问题的企业都将显示出来，最后他们会说，我终于成为了一个柠檬水摊子的老板，我一直想购买此产品，我很高兴你建立起WeatherBill网站。

【333
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,544
Let me pull out my credit card. And they would start buying stuff.】
我可以用信用卡来消费了。

【334
00:15:38,710 --> 00:15:47,029
So no one bought. At the time we also had to do a lot

335
00:15:47,030 --> 00:15:48,619
of learning about regulatory stuff.】
不过没有人买。当时我们不得不大量学习管理学的东西。

【336
00:15:48,620 --> 00:15:51,749
So we met with the CFTC and lawyers and we're

337
00:15:51,750 --> 00:15:54,439
like we didn't have insurance paper,

338
00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:58,594
that's a whole another multi day lecture about how insurance works.】
所以我们会见了美国商品期货交易委员会和律师，我们缺乏保障，
学了好多天保险如何运作的知识。

【339
00:15:58,790 --> 00:16:01,579
And it's a painful lesson we have all had to learn,

340
00:16:01,780 --> 00:16:04,579
but we wrote these products as derivative contracts.】
这是一个我们都必须学习的痛苦的教训,但我们写了这些产品的衍生品合约。

【341
00:16:04,580 --> 00:16:06,899
Over the counter derivatives, the thing that blew up the economy,

342
00:16:06,910 --> 00:16:08,869
that sort of what everyone calls it now.】
像柜台的衍生品一样，这东西重创了经济，就是现在人们常说的。

【343
00:16:08,870 --> 00:16:11,614
But at the time it was like efficient stuff.】
但当时貌似是很有效的。

【344
00:16:11,900 --> 00:16:13,769
So we used these over the counter derivatives,

345
00:16:13,770 --> 00:16:15,299
and we had to figure out how to make all this stuff work.】
所以我们利用这些柜台的衍生品，我们必须知道如何使所有这些东西运作。

【346
00:16:15,300 --> 00:16:17,339
So there was a lot of plumbing involved in pulling this whole

347
00:16:17,340 --> 00:16:20,039
business together with a big sort of launch out to the world.】
有很多途径涉及进来，参与整个业务，一起将这一大类的东西开展到了整个世界。

【348
00:16:20,190 --> 00:16:22,789
We moved from 200 stations to 400 stations.】
我们从200站搬到400站。

【349
00:16:22,910 --> 00:16:23,819
So, now you could measure the weather

350
00:16:23,820 --> 00:16:25,724
at 400 different places, it's amazing.】
所以,现在你可以在400个不同的地方测量天气,它是令人惊异的。

【351
00:16:25,950 --> 00:16:29,059
We went to industry conferences and learnt about what

352
00:16:29,060 --> 00:16:30,699
was going on in the weather-derivatives market,

353
00:16:30,700 --> 00:16:33,549
which is used by energy companies and so on and so forth.】
我们去行业会议，了解过去使用它的能源公司在天气衍生产品市场上发生了什么事情，等等。

【354
00:16:34,098 --> 00:16:36,554
So, in that first year,

355
00:16:36,670 --> 00:16:39,024
after no one came to the website to buy coverage,

356
00:16:39,190 --> 00:16:47,019
I was sort of along with the rest of our early team of endeavourers,

357
00:16:47,060 --> 00:16:50,799
pioneers, cold calling businesses in all these different industries,

358
00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,884
like why aren't you buying, so, hey, Mr. Construction Company,

359
00:16:53,990 --> 00:16:57,429
doesn't it cause delays in your operations when it rains or hey,

360
00:16:57,430 --> 00:16:58,969
Mr. Farmer like if there is a freeze,

361
00:16:58,970 --> 00:17:01,109
you're going to lose your entire citrus crop, right?】
所以，在第一年，在没有人来买网站的版面之后，我是在我们的早期团队中励志、敢为人先的人，在所有这些不同行业的企业中语调变冷，比如问你为什么不购买，那样的话，在下雨的时候建筑公司就不会造成操作延迟，农民在下冰雹的时候就不会失去你的全部的柑橘类作物，对不对？

【362
00:17:01,410 --> 00:17:03,499
And you start to end up in these consultative

363
00:17:03,500 --> 00:17:05,784
dialogue with these potential customers.】
开始这样的对话就意味着结束了与这些潜在客户的生意。

【364
00:17:05,950 --> 00:17:07,344
And cold calling was something that

365
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,814
I would say is sort of a critical,

366
00:17:10,050 --> 00:17:12,699
something you shouldn't be afraid to do if you're

367
00:17:12,700 --> 00:17:14,069
dealing with customers because you're going to have

368
00:17:14,070 --> 00:17:16,124
to do it to understand what your customers want.】
变冷的语调我可以说是一种批评，你与客户打交道时你不应该感到害怕，因为你要必须做的就明白了你的客户想要什么。

【369
00:17:16,310 --> 00:17:18,484
So, through this process we realized,

370
00:17:18,610 --> 00:17:20,229
well, there are people that want this

371
00:17:20,230 --> 00:17:21,619
and we're able to close some sales,

372
00:17:21,620 --> 00:17:23,609
but every single one of them we're having to say,

373
00:17:23,610 --> 00:17:24,789
well, tell me the weather that affects you,

374
00:17:24,790 --> 00:17:25,939
and then they'll give you whole story,

375
00:17:26,060 --> 00:17:27,929
then you do an analysis for them and then you run the price.】
所以，通过这个过程我们意识到，还有人想要这个，我们可以关闭一些销售，但我们不得说，他们中的每一个单独的个体，要求告诉天气影响，然后他们就会给你整个情节，然后你为他们做了分析，你提出价格。

【376
00:17:27,930 --> 00:17:30,039
So, we were using our own website to sell products to people

377
00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,439
that wouldn't go to our website because there was a whole bunch

378
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:36,499
of handholding and positioning and the technology work,

379
00:17:36,500 --> 00:17:38,464
but at the end of the day we hadn't productized yet.】
所以，我们用我们自己的网站卖产品给那些不会去我们的网站的人，因为有一大堆手把手定位和技术工作，但在结束的时候我们还没有产品化。

【380
00:17:38,620 --> 00:17:40,484
We clearly just had a proof-of-technology.】

我们显然只是做了一个技术论证。

【381
00:17:40,530 --> 00:17:50,959
So, the next year we ended up being - what was the guy, that Yahoo!】
所以，接下来的一年里，我们结束了幼儿期，那变成了什么，是雅虎！

【382
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,074
Peanut Butter - we were like spread very thin.】
花生酱 - 我们蔓延的非常薄。

【383
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,824
So, we were trying to sell into all these different markets,

384
00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,479
travel companies, energy companies, how do we make this thing work,

385
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,649
like can we get travel companies to give rain free

386
00:18:01,650 --> 00:18:03,389
guarantees to all their customers you know,

387
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,009
negotiations getting on planes flying back and forth,

388
00:18:06,010 --> 00:18:07,839
meeting with all the online travel agencies.】
所以，我们试图杀入所有这些不同的市场，旅游公司，能源公司，我们做的工作是这些，就像我们可以给旅游企业下雨免费担保，我们在飞机上飞行来回的谈判，满足所有在线旅行社。

【389
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:09,489
We almost got a deal. We're almost there.】

我们几乎得到了一笔交易。我们几乎达成了。

【390
00:18:09,490 --> 00:18:11,759
That's not really going to work.】
这不是真正的去上班。

【391
00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:15,129
So, we've got to back off of that market.】
所以，我们对这个市场已经打了退堂鼓。

【392
00:18:15,140 --> 00:18:17,459
Ski resorts, you know, can we get all those ski resorts to buy,

393
00:18:17,460 --> 00:18:19,409
well, we make snow and people will show up,

394
00:18:19,410 --> 00:18:20,679
we'll make money other way as well.】
滑雪胜地，你知道的，我们可以买下所有的滑雪胜地，好了，我们造雪展示给人们，我们会用其他方式赚钱。

【395
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,029
So, we learnt a lot about customers in different markets,

396
00:18:23,030 --> 00:18:24,449
but we didn't get deep enough to provide a

397
00:18:24,450 --> 00:18:26,574
solution to a customer at any given market.】
所以，我们学了在不同的市场的关于客户的东西，但我们没有学到足够深已足以在任何给定的市场提供解决方案给客户。

【398
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,219
So, in 2009, we made the decision to focus

399
00:18:29,220 --> 00:18:31,724
the entire business around agriculture.】

所以，在2009年，我们决定整个业务重点调整于围绕农业。

【400
00:18:32,010 --> 00:18:35,079
And we're really lucky that we raised a ton

401
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:36,449
of money in our first year of business.】
我们真的很幸运，我们在开业的第一年赚了一大笔钱。

【402
00:18:36,450 --> 00:18:39,899
After that first year, where I was cold calling all those businesses,

403
00:18:40,270 --> 00:18:42,584
we were able to close a couple of million dollars of sales.】
第一年之后，在我用冷语调责问所有这些业务的地方，我们能够关闭一批百万美元的销售。

【404
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,119
And so for a startup during the Web 2.0

405
00:18:45,120 --> 00:18:47,759
heyday to actually make a couple of million dollars

406
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,764
in their first year of business was a big deal,

407
00:18:49,930 --> 00:18:52,559
despite the fact that a lot of people didn't fully understand

408
00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,459
or comprehend or care about what we were doing,

409
00:18:54,590 --> 00:18:56,369
just you made money and you are a Web 2.0 company,

410
00:18:56,478 --> 00:18:58,339
you can get a big check. So, we raised money.】
启动Web 2.0的全盛时期，实际上在第一年赚百万美元是一个大问题，尽管事实上，很多人并没有完全理解或理解或关心我们什么做，只是你挣了钱，你是一个Web 2.0公司，你可以得到一个大的检查。所以，我们筹集资金。


【411
00:19:00,527 --> 00:19:03,749
And that money afforded us the ability to make a lot of mistakes.】
这些钱在能力上满足了我们，也使我们犯了很多错误。

【412
00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:05,809
And a lot of mistakes were really required for

413
00:19:05,810 --> 00:19:08,549
us to figure out what could work as a business.】
很多错误的发生真正需要面对的是的，我们要弄清楚什么可以作为一个企业来工作。

【414
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,104
2009, we were seeing our cash go down.】
2009年，我们看到我们的现金量萎缩了。

【415
00:19:12,380 --> 00:19:14,799
And we hadn't yet built a model in any market

416
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:16,759
where we could scale the business.】
我们还没建立一个可以扩展业务的市场模式。

【417
00:19:16,980 --> 00:19:18,684
So, we said, let's make a bet,

418
00:19:18,790 --> 00:19:21,539
the bet is we're going to focus on agriculture.】
所以，我们说，让我们来打个赌，赌注是我们要专注于农业。

【419
00:19:21,540 --> 00:19:24,764
We're going on focus on farmers, because if we do this the right way,

420
00:19:24,890 --> 00:19:26,219
we'll be able to build a product that we

421
00:19:26,220 --> 00:19:27,999
can sell to farmers over and over again.】
我们将专注于农民，因为如果我们这样做是对的，我们就可以建立一个产品，我们可以一次又一次的卖给农民。

【422
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,179
And this is the market that we felt at the time provided

423
00:19:30,180 --> 00:19:32,789
the best opportunity for us to build a scalable business.】
我们觉得市场在这时提供了最好的机会，为我们构建一个可扩展的业务。

【424
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:34,589
And Greg Smirin, our Chief Revenue Officer,

425
00:19:34,590 --> 00:19:37,129
joined us around this time and helped lead this effort for us.】
Greg Smirin，我们的首席营收官，在这个时候加入了我们，帮助我们领导这项工作。

【426
00:19:37,360 --> 00:19:39,169
Big learning was when Greg came onboard and

427
00:19:39,170 --> 00:19:42,124
really made us diligent about this approach,

428
00:19:42,270 --> 00:19:45,209
just how little we knew and how little focus we

429
00:19:45,210 --> 00:19:47,899
had at the time in solving the right problems.】
格雷格掌舵时开始了大学习，这种做法确实使我们勤奋，知道我们多么小，小而集中，我们有时间解决正确的问题。

【430
00:19:48,220 --> 00:19:54,224
And so, in 2009, we started selling the specific products to farmers.】
因此，在2009年，我们开始向农民销售具体产品。

【431
00:19:54,340 --> 00:19:57,669
We moved to 14,000 grids as opposed to 400 stations because

432
00:19:57,670 --> 00:20:00,399
we realized no one cares about the rainfall 150 miles away,

433
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,729
they want the rainfall to be measured at their location.】

我们搬到14,000格，而不是400站，因为我们意识到相隔150英里远时再讨论降雨量就无意义了，他们希望在他们的位置来衡量降量。

【434
00:20:02,730 --> 00:20:04,269
That was a big reason a lot of people weren't buying.】

这是很多人不买产品的一个很大的原因。

【435
00:20:04,270 --> 00:20:06,139
And so that's really where we understood at that point

436
00:20:06,140 --> 00:20:08,514
the focus of the technology that we build as a company.】
所以我们理解技术的重点在这一点上才真的使我们建立了公司。

【437
00:20:08,710 --> 00:20:10,384
Measure the weather more and more locally.】
越来越多的本地测量天气。

【438
00:20:10,510 --> 00:20:13,159
And today, we measure the weather using Doppler radar and

439
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,299
satellite imagery and all sorts of things that can pinpoint

440
00:20:15,300 --> 00:20:18,039
the weather to your exact location and the technology scale

441
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,454
at which we operate has become pretty substantial,

442
00:20:20,620 --> 00:20:22,824
but at the time that was a big move for us.】
而在今天，我们用多普勒天气雷达和卫星图像衡量天气，可以精确定位你的确切位置，我们的技术已经变得相当可观，但在当时，对我们来说是一个很大的举动。

【443
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,439
And so, the ag products started to work and we realized that

444
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,319
we needed to provide full season protection to farmers.】
因此，AG产品开始工作，我们意识到，我们需要为农民在全季提供保护。

【445
00:20:29,490 --> 00:20:31,589
So, none of us came from an agricultural background,

446
00:20:31,590 --> 00:20:33,139
none of us came from an insurance background,

447
00:20:33,140 --> 00:20:35,299
but it turns out, farmers won't buy your product

448
00:20:35,300 --> 00:20:37,149
unless it's written on insurance papers.】
我们没有农业的背景，没有保险的背景，但事实证明，农民不会买你的产品，除非写在保险文件上。

【449
00:20:37,150 --> 00:20:39,389
So, we had to figure out how do we build an insurance company.】
所以，我们必须弄清楚我们如何建立一个保险公司。

【450
00:20:39,610 --> 00:20:42,969
And that was a lot of fun. Like I said, I'm going to leave that

451
00:20:42,970 --> 00:20:44,679
conversation off for another day,

452
00:20:44,820 --> 00:20:47,009
but we had to get all the regulatory approvals in all

453
00:20:47,010 --> 00:20:49,869
51 jurisdictions in the United States for doing this,

454
00:20:49,980 --> 00:20:51,799
where you're not actually sending an adjuster out to

455
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,249
measure what happens to your farm we're actually just

456
00:20:54,250 --> 00:20:55,929
writing your policy that says if this weather occurs,

457
00:20:55,930 --> 00:20:58,919
I'll send you a check and how do we get that approved and how do we get

458
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,729
an A rating on the product and how do we get the money and the reinsurance

459
00:21:01,730 --> 00:21:06,024
to back us and this all became a big hustle, but it worked.】
这很有趣。就像我说的，我要为另一天而离开谈话，但我们不得不在在美国所有51个司法管辖区监管部门得到批准，你实际上没有发送一个评估你的农场会发生什么，我们实际上只写你的政策，说如果发生这种天气，我会送你一张支票，我们怎么得到批准，我们如何得到一个A等级产品，我们怎么挣钱以及再保险，这都成了一个很大的麻烦，但它这样做管用。

【460
00:21:06,270 --> 00:21:09,199
And last year, we launched a program called Total Weather

461
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,094
Insurance and we figured out a sales model that works,

462
00:21:12,180 --> 00:21:15,679
that scales, where people will buy the product every season and we

463
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,614
can go out and close sale after sale after sale in a given day.】
去年，我们启动了一项计划，名为全天气保险，我们想出了一个销售模型，该模型的工作原理是人们会购买每一个季节的产品，我们可以在售后在某一天关闭销售走出去。

【464
00:21:19,970 --> 00:21:24,049
And so, we raised a bunch of money earlier this year based

465
00:21:24,050 --> 00:21:26,649
on the fact that our business was growing very quickly and

466
00:21:26,650 --> 00:21:28,969
we had a product that every farmer wanted to buy.】
因此，我们在今年的早些时候取出了一笔钱，事实上我们的业务增长速度非常快，我们有每一个农民都想买的产品。

【467
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,189
There is 160 million acres of corn and soybeans planted

468
00:21:33,190 --> 00:21:34,954
just in the Midwest of the United States.】
在美国中西刚刚种植上160万英亩的玉米和大豆。

【469
00:21:35,070 --> 00:21:37,004
Our product costs $40 an acre.】
我们的产品成本是每亩40元。

【470
00:21:37,170 --> 00:21:39,679
There's $6 billion of revenue we're going after

471
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,859
and our close rate is very, very high.】
我们预测能有6亿美元的收入，我们的成交率是非常非常高的。

【472
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,489
More than half of the farmers that are offered our product

473
00:21:45,490 --> 00:21:48,039
actually buy it because it's something that we finally figured

474
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,269
out to make a lot of value and makes a lot of sense for them

475
00:21:51,270 --> 00:21:54,289
and we can scale this business pretty substantially.】
我们为超过一半的农民提供产品，实际上购买它是因为我们终于做出了很多的价值，使他们有很大的意义，我们可以相当大幅度扩展此项业务。

【476
00:21:54,460 --> 00:21:58,144
So, we're less than 30 people in Q1 of this year,

477
00:21:58,360 --> 00:22:02,949
and we're now over 100 people, Eli our recent addition to the team,

478
00:22:02,950 --> 00:22:06,071
Stanford undergrad, joining in a couple of months.】
我们在今年第一季度还不到30人，而现在超过了100人，最近加入了我们团队的是Eli，他是斯坦福大学的本科生，加入有几个月时间了。

【479
00:22:06,398 --> 00:22:09,989
And we've a revenue number now that's in the

480
00:22:09,990 --> 00:22:11,909
tens of million of dollars per quarter.】
我们现在每季度收入几十万美元。

【481
00:22:12,170 --> 00:22:13,819
And the business is growing very quickly and the

482
00:22:13,820 --> 00:22:16,484
technology that we're building is exciting.】
业务增长速度非常快，源于我们正在构建的令人兴奋的技术。

【483
00:22:16,620 --> 00:22:20,489
We've probably one of the largest - we're probably the largest

484
00:22:20,490 --> 00:22:23,379
user of the Elastic Map Reduce service at Amazon,

485
00:22:23,380 --> 00:22:25,149
which is basically Hadoop in the cloud.】
我们可能是亚马逊弹性MapReduce服务最大的客户，也或许是最大的其中之一，基本上是Hadoop云的最大用户。

【486
00:22:25,420 --> 00:22:27,329
We're simulating the weather on a two-by-two

487
00:22:27,330 --> 00:22:29,769
mile basis for the next 730 days,

488
00:22:29,910 --> 00:22:33,409
10,000 times, covering the entire United States and then

489
00:22:33,410 --> 00:22:35,849
similarly on a grid basis covering the entire globe.】
在接下来的730天，我们两英里一次的10000次模拟天气，覆盖了整个美国，然后同样覆盖了整个地球的网格。

【490
00:22:36,030 --> 00:22:37,059
So, the scale of the data,

491
00:22:37,060 --> 00:22:39,759
which we operate, we monitor that weather and we update the

492
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,879
simulations twice a day as new simulation models come out,

493
00:22:43,060 --> 00:22:45,249
has become pretty substantial and it gives us the

494
00:22:45,250 --> 00:22:47,009
ability to better service our clients and there is

495
00:22:47,010 --> 00:22:49,074
a whole sort of product mission around what we do.】
所以，我们的数据，我们所经营的规模，我们监控的天气，我们每天两次更新模拟新的仿真模型出来，已变得相当可观，它使我们能够更好地服务我们的客户，围绕我们所做的产品有一整套任务流程。

【496
00:22:49,330 --> 00:22:50,669
We're renaming the company.】
我们对公司进行了重命名。

【497
00:22:50,670 --> 00:22:55,009
I was going to say it, but Greg has asked me not to.】
这正是我想提出的，但格雷格已经问我要不要做。

【498
00:22:55,010 --> 00:22:58,019
We are doing the renaming announcement next Tuesday.】
我们将在下周二发布更名公告。

【499
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:00,869
Five years later, we're renaming the company, it's crazy.】
五年后，我们重命名了公司，令人疯狂。

【500
00:23:00,870 --> 00:23:03,559
So, I was perfectly happy doing this.】
所以，我是非常乐意这样做。

【501
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:07,379
This is one point because I think it speaks to how nimble

502
00:23:07,380 --> 00:23:11,319
one needs to be and how sort of brutally self-honest and

503
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,789
self-aware you need to be as you go through this process.】
因为这一点我理解到灵活的讲是必要的，以及在这过程中知道如何自省自律。

【504
00:23:13,900 --> 00:23:16,959
We've had to change what we are doing and how we are doing it many

505
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,714
times over in the course of this - the development of this business.】
我们不得不改变我们正在做的，以及在这一业务的发展之上为什么我们做了很多次。

【506
00:23:20,860 --> 00:23:23,319
And it came to a point recently that the company may or

507
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,389
may not be appropriate for what we are doing and the scope

508
00:23:25,390 --> 00:23:27,509
of the things that we'd like to do as an organization.】
该公司可能会也可能不会欣赏我们在做的，我们作为一个组织想要做的事情的范围，这一个问题最近出现了。

【509
00:23:27,780 --> 00:23:30,249
And so, let's change the company name.】
所以，我们要改变公司的名称。

【510
00:23:30,250 --> 00:23:32,769
Well, okay, that's not off the table and we've found

511
00:23:32,770 --> 00:23:34,959
a great URL and we're going to launch it on Tuesday

512
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:36,744
next week with this great new company name.】
好吧，这是不在讨论的，我们已经找到了一个伟大的的的URL，我们要来启动它，下周二这个公司伟大的新名字就会出现。

【513
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:41,969
So, we didn't hold any sort of personal,

514
00:23:41,970 --> 00:23:44,359
sort of, you know, I'm stuck on this name because

515
00:23:44,360 --> 00:23:45,979
it's what I always wanted to build,

516
00:23:45,980 --> 00:23:48,379
it's my business, it's my baby, I can't let go of it,

517
00:23:48,380 --> 00:23:50,629
you know, like every day is a new challenge and everyday

518
00:23:50,630 --> 00:23:52,369
there is a new solution to that problem.】
所以，我们没有举行任何形式的个人，那种，你知道的，我踌躇在这个名字上，因为这是我一直想建立的，这是我的业务，它是我的宝贝，我不能放过它，你知道，就像每一天都是新的挑战，每天都有一个新的问题要解决解决。

【519
00:23:52,590 --> 00:23:55,359
And as long as you keep living every day like that you're going to progress

520
00:23:55,360 --> 00:23:57,714
and at some point you're going to have success in your mission,

521
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,579
but you cannot hold on to the things in

522
00:23:59,580 --> 00:24:03,429
the past and I tell my VCs and so on,

523
00:24:03,430 --> 00:24:05,379
you know, they introduced me as sort of the founder of the company.】
而且只要你保持生活每一天一样，你就会进步，在某些时候，你的任务不知不觉就会成功，但你不能在过去的事情上踌躇不前，我说过的我的风险投资等等，你知道，他们按照公司的创始人排序介绍我。

【524
00:24:05,380 --> 00:24:07,339
I'm like, founder isn't really a role,

525
00:24:07,340 --> 00:24:08,969
it's not really a title I like,

526
00:24:09,150 --> 00:24:12,359
I'm the CEO of the company today and I may not necessarily

527
00:24:12,360 --> 00:24:14,204
be the best CEO of the company tomorrow,

528
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,189
and a lot of founders it's for them,

529
00:24:17,460 --> 00:24:18,939
it's very much like they cling on to that

530
00:24:18,940 --> 00:24:20,479
title because it's what they're doing,

531
00:24:20,820 --> 00:24:22,724
but it's important to avoid it.】
我想，创始人不是一个真正的角色，它不是我真正想要的职位，今天我是公司的CEO，但在以后我不一定是最好的CEO，很多创始人对他们来说，这是非常喜欢坚持这个称号，因为这是他们在做什么，但重要的是要避免这样。

【532
00:24:22,820 --> 00:24:24,539
So I want to talk a little bit about some of the learnings

533
00:24:24,540 --> 00:24:29,054
of the last couple of - I'm just checking your clock here,

534
00:24:29,330 --> 00:24:30,629
the last couple of years.】
所以，我想谈一点一些最近意识到的，在这里，之后几年我只是在查岗。

【535
00:24:30,630 --> 00:24:36,059
So first one, doing a startup, I might alienate the - I don't know,

536
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,759
but I might alienate people with some of the things I'm going to say,

537
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,149
but I'm just going to speak from the heart.】
所以第一，开始启动，我可能会疏远，我不知道，但我可能会疏远一些我要说的事情，但我只是从心说话。

【538
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,919
The first one is, I hear a lot of people in Silicon Valley say,

539
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,579
I'm going to go do a startup and similar in the vein of,

540
00:24:47,580 --> 00:24:49,399
I'm a serial entrepreneur,

541
00:24:49,770 --> 00:24:51,779
doing a startup has about as much meaning as

542
00:24:51,780 --> 00:24:54,059
saying I'm going to jump out off a plane.】
第一个是，我听到了很多在硅谷的人说，我要去做一个和血管相似的启动，我是一个连续创业者，做一个启动，要有跳下飞机的意义。

【543
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,564
What I mean by this is that doing a startup is really

544
00:25:00,820 --> 00:25:04,339
an activity or a way of organizing a group of people

545
00:25:04,370 --> 00:25:06,754
around a problem that they are trying to solve.】
我的意思是，一个项目的启动是一个真正的活动，或是组织周围的一群人，正式一群人在解决一个问题。

【546
00:25:07,150 --> 00:25:10,979
You don't get a bunch of people together and say,

547
00:25:10,980 --> 00:25:13,379
hey, let's all grab a couple of guns and

548
00:25:13,380 --> 00:25:15,199
maybe we'll go find a dictator to kill.】
你没有聚到一堆人在一起说，嘿，让我们都拿几把枪，我们也许会刺杀一个独裁者。

【549
00:25:15,700 --> 00:25:17,164
If there is a dictator to kill,

550
00:25:17,210 --> 00:25:19,069
you put together a team that's most appropriate

551
00:25:19,070 --> 00:25:20,474
for taking that dictator out.】
如果想杀一个独裁者，你组织一个团队最应该把独裁者排除在外。

【552
00:25:20,670 --> 00:25:27,269
Okay? It's a terrible analogy, but I wanted to wake everyone up.】
好吗？这是一个可怕的比喻，但我想以此来唤醒大家。

【553
00:25:27,330 --> 00:25:35,144
Okay? And be controversial. So, the process of starting up a company

554
00:25:35,360 --> 00:25:37,154
to solve a problem is exactly that,

555
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,149
I'm starting up a company to solve this specific problem.】
好吗？这是有争议的。因此，公司开始了一个解决问题的过程，正是如此，我成立了一家公司，来解决这一具体问题。

【556
00:25:39,150 --> 00:25:41,114
So, the way I'm going to go back doing it,

557
00:25:41,300 --> 00:25:43,409
the people that are going to help me do it,

558
00:25:43,410 --> 00:25:45,139
is really dependent on the problem.】
因此，我要回去做的，是要找到能帮助我做到这一点的人，是解决问题真正需要的。

【559
00:25:45,450 --> 00:25:49,689
It's not an exercise in an activity stream that I'd like

560
00:25:49,690 --> 00:25:52,189
to undertake of getting my ass-kicked every day,

561
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,699
not getting paid enough, suffering through years of misery and

562
00:25:55,700 --> 00:25:57,609
maybe you all find a problem to solve.】
这不是一个活动的练习，没有得到足够的酬劳，我每一天都要被踢屁股，通过经历多年的苦难，也许你都可以将这问题解决。

【563
00:25:57,890 --> 00:25:59,839
And that's why I say it's a candid thing,

564
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:01,534
I'm going to go jump out of the plane.】
这就是为什么我说这是一个坦诚的事情，我打算去跳出了飞机。

【565
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,679
The second one is that I hear or there is a sense

566
00:26:05,910 --> 00:26:10,729
in my limited exposure to the sort of - what I call

567
00:26:10,730 --> 00:26:14,079
the rock star motif of what entrepreneurism is,

568
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,109
in - especially in Silicon Valley, and it's good.】
第二个是，在我有限的感觉中听到有一些 ，我将企业精神称之为摇滚巨星的动机，尤其是在硅谷，这是很好的。

【569
00:26:16,110 --> 00:26:21,569
I mean there is a culture of taking leaps and doing big exciting

570
00:26:21,570 --> 00:26:24,709
things here and you're an important person if you do that.】
我的意思是这有一个采取跨越式发展的传统，你是一个重要的人你就会这样做。

【571
00:26:25,710 --> 00:26:28,664
But just being an entrepreneur does not make one a rock star.】
但只单单作一个企业家成为不了摇滚明星。

【572
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,209
The odds of the guy - or being the guy on the left are according

573
00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:37,324
to a study and I put the URL up there, 0.0006%,

574
00:26:37,450 --> 00:26:40,439
that's the odds of - I'm starting up a company and having

575
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:44,014
the company be worth more than a billion dollars.】
根据一项可能性研究，我把URL放在左边，会上涨0.0006％，我建立了一个公司，市值超10亿美元。

【576
00:26:44,190 --> 00:26:47,699
However, all of the press coverage and all of the attention

577
00:26:47,700 --> 00:26:50,659
at Silicon Valley goes to the guy on the left.】
然而，所有的新闻报道和硅谷所有的关注都是在左边。

【578
00:26:51,330 --> 00:26:55,129
The person on the right is the status quo, your typical entrepreneur,

579
00:26:55,130 --> 00:26:57,839
your typical Silicon Valley startup team

580
00:26:57,980 --> 00:26:59,804
looks like the person on the right.】
在右边的人是典型的硅谷创业团队的现状，典型的企业家，看起来像在右边的人。

【581
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,689
There is a reason I look like I'm 50,

582
00:27:02,690 --> 00:27:05,029
and I'm only 31 years old, okay?】
这就是我长得像50岁，而我只有31岁的原因。

【583
00:27:05,350 --> 00:27:09,274
The probability of being the person on the right is greater than 99%.】
即在右侧的人的概率大于99％。

【584
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:10,819
And so, I would say,

585
00:27:10,820 --> 00:27:16,119
don't do a startup and don't try and solve a problem via a startup,

586
00:27:16,530 --> 00:27:19,449
if your goal is to have the status of the rock star

587
00:27:19,450 --> 00:27:22,339
entrepreneur because it is a false premise.】
所以，我要说，不要为了启动而启动，不要为了试图解决一个问题而启动，如果你的目标是成为有摇滚明星精神的企业家，它是一个错误的期望。

【588
00:27:24,790 --> 00:27:27,389
The financial reward or the opportunity

589
00:27:27,390 --> 00:27:29,568
cost of doing a startup is very high.】
做一个启动的机会成本和财政报酬是非常高的。

【590
00:27:30,725 --> 00:27:32,889
This is from that same study that I just used.】
这是从我已做过的同样的研究中得来的。

【591
00:27:32,890 --> 00:27:34,799
There are a lot of engineers here,

592
00:27:35,090 --> 00:27:37,439
I'm assuming 100% of you will have the ability to

593
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,439
interview for a job at Google when you graduate,

594
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,949
and if you were to get a job at Google when you graduate,

595
00:27:41,950 --> 00:27:45,029
the anecdotal evidence suggests that your first

596
00:27:45,030 --> 00:27:48,639
year salary would be about $105,000 this year.】
这里有很多工程师，我假设当你毕业的时候有100％的能力去参加google的招聘面试，如果你毕业后在谷歌得到了一份工作，很有可能，今年的薪水将是约105,000美元。

【597
00:27:48,730 --> 00:27:51,979
If you were to start a company and raise money from

598
00:27:51,980 --> 00:27:54,719
a venture capitalist and you were then able to sell

599
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:56,604
that company or take that company public,

600
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,359
your median time to doing that will be 49 months.】
如果你要开公司，从风险资本家处筹集资金，等到你能够出售该公司或该公司上市时，将花费是49个月的时间。


600
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,359
your median time to doing that will be 49 months.
你做那件事的平均需要49个月

601
00:27:59,780 --> 00:28:01,539
And assuming three founders,
假如有三位创办人

602
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,269
your median expected payoff to the founders will be about $300,000
平均每位创办人预期回报为30万

603
00:28:05,270 --> 00:28:10,689
each, which works out to an annualized salary equivalent of $73,000.
相当于年利率73,000美元的薪金

604
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:15,709
And the probability that you actually make no money is 67%.
而且，你实际上赔钱的概率是67％

605
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:17,659
Okay?
懂了吗

606
00:28:18,670 --> 00:28:22,599
So, the reason for being entrepreneurial and the reason
因此，对于正在创业的原因

607
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:26,489
for forming a startup to solve a problem should not be for
解决问题的方式不只金钱奖励

608
00:28:26,490 --> 00:28:29,779
the financial rewards because the financial rewards,
金钱的奖励仅仅是物质奖励而已
609
00:28:29,970 --> 00:28:31,809
if that's your motivation would indicate
倘若那就是你所想要的将预示

610
00:28:31,810 --> 00:28:34,584
that you are better off going to Google, going to a hedge fund,
你最好离开去google，去做对冲基金的业务

611
00:28:34,790 --> 00:28:38,939
going to some other career that has stable income potential.
去其他一些能有稳定高收入的行业

612
00:28:40,270 --> 00:28:42,619
If you were to get a job at an existing company,
如果你是已经在现有的公司取得了工作岗位

613
00:28:42,910 --> 00:28:45,489
you would have the ability to make an impact.
你将会发挥一定的作用

614
00:28:46,260 --> 00:28:47,564
There would be lots of people there.
这里会有很多员工

615
00:28:47,730 --> 00:28:49,509
There would be lots of resources there.
也会有很多资源

616
00:28:49,510 --> 00:28:52,509
There would be a platform upon which you could build
你可以构建一个平台

617
00:28:52,510 --> 00:28:54,249
something that could affect a lot of people.
而有些事情将会影响到很多人

618
00:28:54,580 --> 00:28:57,454
If you were to get a job at Google, they have 100 million users,
倘若你已经在google求得职位，那里有1亿用户

619
00:28:57,500 --> 00:28:59,499
if you launch the products to their 100 million users,
如果把你的产品推广给这1亿用户

620
00:28:59,500 --> 00:29:01,094
you would have 100 million users.
你就会拥有1亿的用户

621
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,609
If you were to try and launch that product on your own,
要是你自己单独去尝试和推广你的产品

622
00:29:03,610 --> 00:29:06,719
you would have zero users and there would be a big,
你就没有任何用户，而那里将有一个很大的

623
00:29:07,350 --> 00:29:11,319
big, big challenge trying to get to 100 million users.
尝试做到1亿用户是个巨大的挑战

624
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,319
So, my point here is that it's not necessarily
因此，我的观点并不是必要的
625
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,104
a bad thing to go work at a big company.
去一家大公司并不一定是坏事

626
00:29:18,290 --> 00:29:21,019
You can still have the potential like growing companies
你仍将有可能去很有增长潜力的公司

627
00:29:21,020 --> 00:29:24,264
and succeeding companies and successful companies
正要成功或已经获得成功的公司
628
00:29:24,460 --> 00:29:26,049
to make a big impact on the world,
然后对这个世界产生影响

629
00:29:26,100 --> 00:29:28,659
to make a big impact and have a large number of customers use something
然后影响到许许多多的用户去使用某些产品

630
00:29:28,660 --> 00:29:32,389
that you build or do something that's a result of your effort.
受到你的影响而去做一些事情

631
00:29:33,350 --> 00:29:37,759
However, you need to be forewarned that at a big company,
可是，你要知道在大公司里

632
00:29:37,910 --> 00:29:39,799
there can be a problem with misalignment.
这里存在错位的问题

633
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:44,029
So, the big company has to make money by doing X or Y or Z and you want
大公司拥通过产品X或Y或Z来赚钱

634
00:29:44,030 --> 00:29:46,879
them to do A or B or C because you think that would be a good idea.
你想让他们去做你认为非常好的产品A或B或者C

635
00:29:47,140 --> 00:29:48,919
And so the big company's decision will be
然后公司高层决定

636
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,219
to continue doing X or Y or Z and say,
继续做产品X、Y和Z而且说

637
00:29:51,220 --> 00:29:54,374
sorry, you can't do A or B or C. That's misalignment.
非常抱歉，你不能做A、B或者C，它们是错误的。

638
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,609
And so your personal ambitions,
因此你个人的抱负

639
00:29:56,610 --> 00:29:59,229
your personal interest or your personal product idea or solution
你个人的兴趣，以及你的产品创意或解决方案

640
00:29:59,230 --> 00:30:02,899
idea for a problem is not an alignment with the big company.
解决问题的理念都不符合大公司的定位

641
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,199
Scale can constrain a big company's ability to do things.
规模也会限制一个大公司做事情的能力

642
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,789
So, big companies might have several people involved in the
大公司可能会有几个人参与

643
00:30:10,790 --> 00:30:13,869
decision-making process and that can make it that much more
决策过程，这将变得非常

644
00:30:13,870 --> 00:30:15,989
difficult for you to get a decision made that what you're
对你而言获得决策支持是困难的

645
00:30:15,990 --> 00:30:18,489
trying to do is worthy of resources and worthy of showing
你所做得值得拥有那些资源，并值得进行展示

646
00:30:18,490 --> 00:30:21,164
to the 100 million users and so on and so forth.
给那1亿的用户等等

647
00:30:21,330 --> 00:30:24,819
And finally resources can't be recruited within a big company.
最后，资源不是只被一家大公司所掌控

648
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,934
You don't own your destiny. Resources are granted to you.
你无法决定自己的命运，这些资源给了你

649
00:30:28,010 --> 00:30:29,769
You were told, here is how many people can work on your
你将被告知，这里将有多少人可以为你的团队工作

650
00:30:29,770 --> 00:30:32,209
team and here is how much money you're going to have and
你将获得多少经费

651
00:30:32,210 --> 00:30:34,459
here is how long you are allowed to apply your time for
你可以在这里多长时间去运用你的精力

652
00:30:34,460 --> 00:30:37,599
which we're paying you to do X or Y or Z. And so,
我们付费给你去做X，Y或Z产品

653
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,659
there are challenges to doing things in a big company and
所以在大公司做事将会充满挑战

654
00:30:39,660 --> 00:30:41,419
they all need to be sort of taken into consideration.
这些挑战都需要一些思考

655
00:30:41,420 --> 00:30:42,669
And I wanted to highlight some of these
我想强调这些

656
00:30:42,670 --> 00:30:45,274
points because I don't want to say,
我不愿意说的观点

657
00:30:45,630 --> 00:30:48,909
be entrepreneurial, I want to make sure that everyone in this room walks
作为创业，我需要确定在这个房间里的每个人

658
00:30:48,910 --> 00:30:55,539
away from this discussion today and is completely reflective about what
结束今天这个讨论后，能彻底的反映到

659
00:30:55,540 --> 00:30:59,699
it is you want out of life and then making a choice that's based on
什么才是你想要的生活，然后做出正确的选择

660
00:30:59,700 --> 00:31:01,729
some of the things that I'm trying to tell you about today.
今天我尝试着告诉你们一些事情

661
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,849
And that you think and are self-aware about whether or
你所想的和关于自我意识的

662
00:31:05,850 --> 00:31:07,529
not the decision that you're going to make is going to
你将要作出的决定是不是

663
00:31:07,530 --> 00:31:10,119
best help you achieve what it is you want from life.
帮助你实现了你想要的生活

664
00:31:10,690 --> 00:31:13,749
This is my L. Ron Hubbard Dianetics cover slide.
这是L.罗恩贺伯特戴尼提的幻灯片

665
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,809
So, actually, what was that movie,
事实上，这部电影要说的是

666
00:31:18,810 --> 00:31:20,849
The Tree of Life, it's a great film.
生命之树，它是一部伟大的电影

667
00:31:20,850 --> 00:31:26,174
In 40 years, none of your failures will matter.
在40年里，一些失败都是微不足道的

668
00:31:26,420 --> 00:31:31,379
And none of the small things that you succeeded doing will matter,
你所获得的成功也是一样微不足道

669
00:31:31,950 --> 00:31:34,469
what's going to matter are the big things that you achieve in life.
真正重要的是你从生活中领悟到的重要的东西

670
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,779
And for some people that's about having a family,
对一些人来说，重要的有一个家庭

671
00:31:38,330 --> 00:31:40,509
for some people it's about leaving kids behind,
对一些人来说，重要的是身后的孩子

672
00:31:40,510 --> 00:31:42,299
for some people it's about writing a great book,
对一些人来说，重要的是完成一本伟大的著作

673
00:31:42,500 --> 00:31:45,189
for some people it's about changing the lives of a few people.
对一些人来讲，重要的是改变一些人的生活

674
00:31:48,150 --> 00:31:50,519
For me, I want to know that I affect the world in an
对我而言，我想知道自己对世界的影响

675
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,864
impactful way and in a meaningful way that lasts,
最终，用一种有效而且有意义的方式

676
00:31:52,890 --> 00:31:56,679
and that it is going to last once I'm gone.
我生前能完成哪怕一次就好

677
00:31:57,670 --> 00:32:00,044
So, the only way I'm going to be able to do that
我将会做的唯一途径

678
00:32:00,250 --> 00:32:02,199
is through entrepreneurism and that's why I call
通过企业者的精神和为什么我

679
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,669
it existential entrepreneurism because for me,
对我而言，我叫它存在的企业家精神

680
00:32:04,670 --> 00:32:06,949
I find meaning in life by doing what I'm doing,
人生的意义是我正在做什么

681
00:32:07,020 --> 00:32:09,609
because for me, my life is - when I look and say,
对我而言，我的生活就是当我观察和说话时

682
00:32:09,610 --> 00:32:11,299
what is it I want from my life,
我要从自己的生活中得到的

683
00:32:11,590 --> 00:32:13,689
I want to leave a lasting impression on the world,
我想要给这个世界留下持久的印象

684
00:32:13,690 --> 00:32:15,324
I want to leave a mark on the world.
我想要给这个世界留下痕迹

685
00:32:15,590 --> 00:32:17,649
And the only way I can think about doing that and having
唯一我能想到这样做

686
00:32:17,650 --> 00:32:20,139
a big enough impact is to be entrepreneurial.
要留下足够的影响就得去做企业家

687
00:32:21,340 --> 00:32:22,969
And so, I want to be able to look back at every
因此，我想我可以回顾一生在每一天

688
00:32:22,970 --> 00:32:25,059
day and say that I made the effort to do that,
然后说我努力过

689
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,929
even if I fail, that's the decision that I'm making
即使我失败了，那也是我自己做的决定

690
00:32:27,930 --> 00:32:30,499
every day to live an entrepreneurial life.
每一天的创业生活

691
00:32:32,590 --> 00:32:35,569
So that's sort of some discussion about the premise,
因此这是讨论的前提

692
00:32:35,570 --> 00:32:37,119
why one should be an entrepreneur.
当一个人要创业的时候

693
00:32:37,710 --> 00:32:40,379
And I want to talk a little bit about the process.
我想谈谈一点点相关的过程

694
00:32:40,420 --> 00:32:42,679
So, the first process - the first thing,
因此第一步，也是第一件事

695
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,694
I'm going to talk about is called getting rid of luck,
我将要讨论的是叫做放弃好运气

696
00:32:44,850 --> 00:32:47,844
this is sort of the strategy of entrepreneurism in my mind.
这是一套我所认为的创业的策略

697
00:32:48,210 --> 00:32:50,199
And the second one is grinding.
第二件就是要耐心

698
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,369
It's like a poker term, if anyone plays poker here,
就如同打扑克，如果有个人在这里玩扑克

699
00:32:53,370 --> 00:32:54,959
I used to play a lot of poker before it
我曾经经常玩扑克在它

700
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:56,769
was big and I only played limit holdem.
很大，我只玩过德州扑克


701
00:32:56,770 --> 00:32:58,514
And the difference between limit holdem and no limit
封顶和不封顶的德州扑克的区分在于

702
00:32:58,620 --> 00:33:00,384
is you got to grind to make money at limit,
你下注时候有限制

703
00:33:00,430 --> 00:33:02,159
you cannot get lucky when you go all in
你并不一定就有运气当你all in

704
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:03,554
and make a bunch of money on a pot.
正一把就把钱赢来的时候

705
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,019
You actually have to sit there for hours and days to make money.
你实际上不得不在那做数个小时甚至数天来赢钱

706
00:33:06,020 --> 00:33:08,559
It's a very painful undergraduate lesson.
这是一个非让痛苦的本科课程

707
00:33:10,591 --> 00:33:12,729
And so, the second piece is what I call,
所以，第二点就是我所想说的

708
00:33:13,170 --> 00:33:16,449
the grind is the tactics of entrepreneurism.
耐心琢磨才是这个行业的方向

709
00:33:17,130 --> 00:33:24,004
So, I equate these things to be the same, luck, risk and the unknown.
所以，我把运气、风险和那些未知因子归纳为是一样的
710

00:33:24,230 --> 00:33:25,844
When you say I got lucky,
当你说我的运气来了

711
00:33:26,230 --> 00:33:28,469
you got lucky because you didn't know what was going to happen.
你得到了好运是因为你不知道结果

712
00:33:29,570 --> 00:33:31,929
So, the corollary is if you know what's going to happen,
所以，推论就是你是否知道结果

713
00:33:31,930 --> 00:33:33,939
there is no luck, there is no risk and there
这里面没有运气，风险而且

714
00:33:33,940 --> 00:33:35,789
is no uncertainty in what it is you're doing.
没有必然在你将要做的事情中

715
00:33:36,260 --> 00:33:39,079
Therefore, shouldn't your objective be to know what
因此，你的意愿并不能让你知道将

716
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,769
is going to happen and your pursuit should always
发生什么，而且你希望总是可以

717
00:33:41,770 --> 00:33:44,864
be to remove the unknown from the equation.
规避那些未知的因子从整个思维公式中

718
00:33:45,110 --> 00:33:46,799
And that's sort of the fundamental premise
这就是排序的基本前提

719
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,739
of how I think about building the business.
我怎么思考去构建这些东西

720
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,829
Figure out what you don't know and then know it.
找出你不知道的才能去知道它

721
00:33:52,830 --> 00:33:54,989
And at the end of the day,
在一天结束的时候

722
00:33:54,990 --> 00:33:57,449
you'll be left with truth or facts and you know exactly
你将会留下真相，你清楚的知道

723
00:33:57,450 --> 00:33:59,409
what's going to happen and your business will achieve
将发生什么，而你的业务将会完成

724
00:33:59,410 --> 00:34:01,159
what it is you are setting out to achieve.
那就是你如何设置来完成

725
00:34:02,580 --> 00:34:03,959
I had to throw a formula in.
我不得不拿出一个公式

726
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,219
This is sort of a very basic, like this kind of cash flow analysis,
这是一个非常基本的，像这种现金流量分析

727
00:34:09,220 --> 00:34:10,499
the value of a company.
公司的价值

728
00:34:11,070 --> 00:34:14,479
So the value of the company is their near-term cash flows,
公司的价值就是他们的短期现金流

729
00:34:14,710 --> 00:34:17,804
plus what's known as this terminal value, this perpetuity value.
加上那些终端价值，这些年资产流

730
00:34:18,070 --> 00:34:20,519
And the perpetuity value is the cash flow in the out year,
年资产流就是这一年的现金流动

731
00:34:20,860 --> 00:34:25,559
divided by the expected risk, minus the long-term growth rate.
均摊预期的风险，减去长期增长率。

732
00:34:25,980 --> 00:34:28,459
And so if there is no risk or if the
所以，这里没有风险或者

733
00:34:28,460 --> 00:34:30,344
risk approximates the growth rate,
风险接近于增长率的速度

734
00:34:30,580 --> 00:34:31,999
the value of the company is infinity.
公司的价值是无穷的

735
00:34:32,290 --> 00:34:33,909
So if you know exactly what's going to happen,
所以你详细的知道将要发生什么

736
00:34:33,910 --> 00:34:35,169
your business should be worth infinity.
你的生意将会没有穷尽的增长

737
00:34:35,210 --> 00:34:37,289
Every business has some degree of inherent risk,
每一个行业都有一些固定风险

738
00:34:37,290 --> 00:34:39,079
so I'm sort of taking this to the extreme, right?
这样我做的极端点，好吧

739
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:40,949
If you understand all the risks,
如果你能理解所有的风险

740
00:34:40,950 --> 00:34:43,084
and you know all of the risks and you take them out of the business,
而且你知道所有的风险你就将把风险规避从你的业务中

741
00:34:43,240 --> 00:34:44,759
then the business is worth infinity dollars.
你的业务就会没有止境的增长

742
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,204
It's the greatest business ever. It's effectively the universe.
他已经是最大的业务了，他就会影响社会

743
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:52,229
If, however, you are constrained by a lack of
如果你受制于缺乏一种

744
00:34:52,230 --> 00:34:54,124
knowledge about where the markets are headed,
市场领导力的认知

745
00:34:54,450 --> 00:34:56,824
a lack of knowledge about what competitors might do,
缺乏对精致对手行为判断的认知

746
00:34:57,140 --> 00:34:59,409
a lack of knowledge about whether a product will succeed,
缺乏一种对产品是否成功判断的认知

747
00:34:59,410 --> 00:35:01,559
a lack of knowledge about whether you can get the product sold
缺乏怎么才能把产品买到

748
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,119
at a particular price point or about whether you can keep your
一个受欢迎的价格点或者怎么保证你的

749
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,419
operating costs low enough to sustain your profit margins.
运作成本足够低来维持利润空间

750
00:35:07,610 --> 00:35:10,259
These are the many uncertainties that exist in later-stage
这有很多不确定性存在于后续业务工作中

751
00:35:10,260 --> 00:35:12,869
businesses and there are similarly many uncertainties
而且有许多相近不确定性

752
00:35:12,870 --> 00:35:14,719
that exist in early-stage businesses.
存在于早期业务中

753
00:35:14,820 --> 00:35:18,309
Will people buy my product? It's a good first question.
人们会购买我的产品么，那是第一个好问题

754
00:35:18,530 --> 00:35:22,499
Do users find my value proposition valuable?
用户能发现我的价值主张有价值么

755
00:35:24,050 --> 00:35:26,994
Is this something that's engaging? Do people - people come back?
有什么可以运作的么，人们会回来么

756
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:28,349
Can I build the product?
我能打造产品么

757
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,954
Can I recruit the engineers to help me build the product?
我可以平庸工程师帮我打造产品么

758
00:35:32,220 --> 00:35:34,069
These are the risks and uncertainties in the early-stage
这有风险和不确定性在前期运营中

759
00:35:34,070 --> 00:35:37,309
business and the more of those you can identify,
而且你会找到更多风险与不确定性

760
00:35:37,310 --> 00:35:40,599
the easier it's going to be for you to take them off the table.
把这些弄清楚还是比较简单的

761
00:35:43,340 --> 00:35:46,189
So identify the unknown, mitigate the unknown,
所以鉴定这些未知因素，减少不确定因素

762
00:35:46,190 --> 00:35:48,324
and then you are enabling certain outcomes.
然后你获得一定的成果

763
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,549
And that's how you increase the value of your company and that's
那就是你如何增长你的企业价值，那就是

764
00:35:50,550 --> 00:35:53,939
how you move yourself towards achieving the mission.
你怎么将你自己向成功一步步走去

765
00:35:54,550 --> 00:35:58,104
And it requires - this one, tell me if you heard this before,
而且他需要一点，告诉我你之前是否听说过

766
00:35:58,230 --> 00:36:00,529
you don't know what you don't know, anyone heard that before?
你不知道你不知道的东西，有人听过么？

767
00:36:01,130 --> 00:36:02,024
Couple of people.
大家

768
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,329
I heard this all the time when I was starting up a business.
我每时每刻都能听到从我开始做生意起

769
00:36:07,650 --> 00:36:10,029
And I didn't listen.
但我没有听

770
00:36:11,540 --> 00:36:15,499
This was the biggest thing that I missed out on when
这是最重要的事，我做错的

771
00:36:15,500 --> 00:36:18,449
I was starting a company and it's basically become the
在我刚开始做生意的时候，它成了我最基础的

772
00:36:18,450 --> 00:36:20,819
premise of how I think about the strategy of entrepreneurism
前提，我是怎么想关于创业精神的策略的前提

773
00:36:20,820 --> 00:36:21,919
and the strategy of what we are trying to do,
我们都正在尝试的策略

774
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,419
because it's not until you get hit in the back of the head
因为他并不是你的关注点，

775
00:36:25,570 --> 00:36:27,779
with something that you weren't thinking about that you wake
之前你并没有想过它，你被当头一棒，

00:36:27,780 --> 00:36:30,329
up to the fact that that should be what you focus on,
那样你突然被叫回现实那才是你应该注意的

776
777
00:36:30,630 --> 00:36:34,169
what do I not know? Because the rest is tactics.
我不知道什么，因为剩下的就是战术了
778

00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:40,069
So this is how I think about the general strategy
所以这是我想过

779
00:36:40,070 --> 00:36:42,394
approach to running the business.
如何运行业务的总体战略方法。

780
00:36:42,610 --> 00:36:44,359
You try and put as much stuff as you can in the
你尝试放尽可能多的动机到

781
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,179
left column and then you try and move it to the
左边那列，然后试着将它移动到

782
00:36:46,180 --> 00:36:49,879
right column and then the rest is just tactics.
右边，剩下的就是战术

783
00:36:50,390 --> 00:36:52,829
Figure out all the things you don't know about the business,
指出你关于生意不知道的东西

784
00:36:53,470 --> 00:36:57,669
know them or solve them or ask the questions or build things to test
理解它们或者解决他们或者询问这些问题或者建立一些东西去测试它们

785
00:36:57,670 --> 00:37:01,924
them in a scientific way and you can move them into the known column.
用科学的方法，你可以将他们放到已知列中

786
00:37:02,210 --> 00:37:03,524
Will people buy my product?
人们将购买我的产品么

787
00:37:03,690 --> 00:37:07,394
Is there a positive ROI marketing model for what I am trying to do?
这有一个可盈利的投资营销模型让我去试着做一下么

788
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,299
You can build a test for that,
你可以建立一种测试为那个模型

789
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,239
you can build a product for that and see if it works.
你可以打造一个产品为那个模型，看看他能运作不

790
00:37:11,240 --> 00:37:14,139
There is a lot of different approaches for the tactics and that's
这有许多不同的观点关于战术，而且

791
00:37:14,140 --> 00:37:16,784
all nuanced around the kind of business you are building,
所有的都很细致，围绕你所建立前的的模型

792
00:37:17,090 --> 00:37:20,199
but in general, if you focus on knowing what it is you don't know,
但是通常来说，如果你把注意力放在了解那些你不知道的事情上

793
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:22,349
you are taking the risk out of the equation and you make it known,
你是在规避风险，你会弄懂它

794
00:37:22,350 --> 00:37:24,069
you've figured out what to do next.
你已经指出你将要做什么

795
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:28,139
This is one of my early slides from when I raised a Series A
这是我早期的幻灯片，在我提出了一个A系列的时候

796
00:37:28,140 --> 00:37:32,019
for WeatherBill in August 2007 this slide is from.
给WeatherBill公司在2007年8月做的这个幻灯片

797
00:37:32,420 --> 00:37:36,069
So when we first raised money, we said here is all the stuff we don't
所以放我们第一次积累资金，我们说这里所有的东西都不知道，

798
00:37:36,070 --> 00:37:38,039
know and then we started to know it,
然后我们忙忙就都知道了

799
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,759
and then it's like oh-oh now there's all these other things.
那么它就想“哦，哦”现在这都是其他的东西了

800
00:37:41,380 --> 00:37:43,144
And we added those to the list.
我们将这些添加到清单上

801
00:37:43,420 --> 00:37:45,409
And the more you are transparent about this,
然后你就对它知道得越透彻

802
00:37:45,410 --> 00:37:47,784
the more your team will believe in your mission,
你的团队越会更相信自己的使命

803
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,349
the more everyone in the company will be aligned with what
每位公司员工奖更加符合

804
00:37:50,350 --> 00:37:52,889
it is you are trying to achieve and the more investors
你努力想要实现的和更多的投资者

805
00:37:52,890 --> 00:37:55,639
will believe in you being the right kind of person to execute
会相信你是最佳人选

806
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,659
on the opportunity you have in front of you.
抓住你面前的机会

807
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,069
Because this is total transparency about
因为这是全透明的

808
00:38:00,070 --> 00:38:03,769
what's working and what's not, and it makes it very clear to everyone
什么是工作，什么不是，每个人都非常了解

809
00:38:03,770 --> 00:38:05,614
about how you are going to succeed.
你是如何取得成功的

810
00:38:05,950 --> 00:38:08,644
How do you succeed? You got to grind.
为什么你会成功，因为你有耐心

811
00:38:08,850 --> 00:38:11,149
This is the Wright brothers' example,
这里有一个莱特兄弟的例子

812
00:38:11,150 --> 00:38:16,719
I have a couple of slides on this. I got to visit Kitty Hawk in July.
我有几张幻灯片，我曾经在7月份去拜访过Kitty

813
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:21,519
Was it July? July 4, pretty cool. Anyone ever been?
7月几号？7月4日，相当愚蠢，还有人这么干过么

814
00:38:22,180 --> 00:38:23,779
Really awesome. I was inspired.
相当令人敬畏，我得到启发

815
00:38:23,780 --> 00:38:25,614
I spent the day walking around by myself.
我一整天都在跟自己散步

816
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:27,809
And they had their shack there，
他们在那里有自己的小窝

817
00:38:27,810 --> 00:38:29,579
I will show a picture of the shack in a second.
我将用一秒钟展示一下小窝的照片

818
00:38:29,930 --> 00:38:36,959
This guy Otto Lilienthal - aviation at the time was sort of like the cool
这个叫Otto Lilienthal的家伙-坐航班的时候有点像

819
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,979
engineering thing to be thinking about in the late 19th century and
19世纪晚期的一件工程

820
00:38:40,980 --> 00:38:44,069
Otto Lilienthal was one of the early sort of aviation pioneers and he
Otto Lilienthal是一个早期的航空先驱

821
00:38:44,070 --> 00:38:47,099
wrote this in the aviation - in the Aeronautical Journal, it said:
在这本航空杂志上这样写道

822
00:38:47,100 --> 00:38:48,729
"While theoretically no difficulty of any
当理论上没有任何重要关键的难点

823
00:38:48,730 --> 00:38:50,739
considerable importance precludes flight,
障碍飞行

824
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:52,959
the problem cannot be considered solved until the
问题将不会被认为是已得到解决

825
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:57,379
act of flying has been accomplished by man, duh. In its application,
直到驾驶员熟练这个动作为止，并得到推广和应用

826
00:38:57,380 --> 00:39:00,149
however, unforeseen difficulties arise of which
但是，不可知的困难的出现

827
00:39:00,150 --> 00:39:01,604
the theorist can have no conception."
理论家并没有明确的定义

828
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:03,699
And this is really highlights the fact that it's the
这才是真正的亮点，事实是

829
00:39:03,700 --> 00:39:06,309
grind that's going to end up making the difference.
坚持不懈才导致了最终不同的结果

830
00:39:06,590 --> 00:39:08,764
He died a few months before this was published,
在它出版前的几个月，他就死了

831
00:39:08,900 --> 00:39:10,929
because he got on a plane or a glider that
因为他上了一架飞机或一个滑翔机

832
00:39:10,930 --> 00:39:13,589
wasn't built right and crashed, irony.
没有设计正确，然后就坠机了，真可笑啊

833
00:39:13,900 --> 00:39:15,959
Around the same time, the Wright brothers,
与此同时，莱特兄弟

834
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:20,014
who had a background working in the printing industry,
他们有在印刷行业的工作背景

835
00:39:20,270 --> 00:39:21,639
they saw this cool new thing.
他们看到这个很酷很新奇的东西

836
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,539
The Internet of the day was transportation.
那时的英特网还只是传输工具

837
00:39:24,850 --> 00:39:27,559
And so the Wright brothers saw that all consumers rather
因此莱特兄弟面对了全部顾客而不是

838
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:29,929
than getting on Facebook and doing social sharing stuff,
在Facebook上去做社会分享的事情

839
00:39:29,930 --> 00:39:31,949
consumers at the time were riding bicycles,
那时候的顾客还在骑自行车

840
00:39:31,950 --> 00:39:33,384
that was like the cool new thing to do.
那就如同一件很酷很新鲜的事情

841
00:39:33,590 --> 00:39:35,099
So they bought a bicycle shop in Dayton, Ohio,
因此他们在俄亥俄州的代顿买了一个自行车商店

842
00:39:35,100 --> 00:39:37,139
and they started building bikes and they've started building
接着他们开始制造自行车，并开始打造

843
00:39:37,140 --> 00:39:39,059
better bikes and they started to engineering them.
更好的自行车，而且他们还开始改装他们的产品

844
00:39:39,720 --> 00:39:42,139
And then they read this Aeronautical Journal and they
同时他们开始阅读航空杂志，并且他们

845
00:39:42,140 --> 00:39:44,924
wrote to Smithsonian and the first step was learning.
写信给史密森学会，然后第一步是开始学习

846
00:39:45,070 --> 00:39:47,089
So when there is something you don't know,
因此当你有不知道的事情的时候

847
00:39:47,090 --> 00:39:48,009
the first thing you can do is,
你所能做的第一件事情

848
00:39:48,010 --> 00:39:49,599
is you can start researching and learning.
就是你要开始研究和学习它们

849
00:39:49,830 --> 00:39:51,109
I didn't know anything about weather,
我不了解天气方面的事情

850
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:52,684
I still know very little about weather.
我几乎不知道气象学

851
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:54,269
I didn't know anything about insurance;
我以前不了解保险

852
00:39:54,310 --> 00:39:56,244
I'd had to learn a little about insurance.
我就学习一些保险常识

853
00:39:56,490 --> 00:40:01,299
And along the way the needs of the mission,
我沿着任务的需求方向

854
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,889
the problem we were trying to solve mandated that
问题在于我们尝试着解决

855
00:40:04,890 --> 00:40:06,684
we learn stuff that we didn't already know.
我们学习未知事物

856
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:08,199
And so the first step was these guys sort of
因此这帮家伙的第一步就是一系列的

857
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:09,474
writing to the Smithsonian and they got,
写信给史密森学会，然后他们收信

858
00:40:09,570 --> 00:40:13,199
they requested - equivalent to a FOIA Act Request nowadays,
他们发出请求-相当于当时的FOIA法案申请

859
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,509
government request, send me all the information you
政府的请求，发送所有信息给我

860
00:40:15,510 --> 00:40:17,279
guys have on aeronautical research has been done.
他们已经完成了航空研究

861
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,189
And they started reading through all these documents,
他们开始阅读这些信件

862
00:40:19,190 --> 00:40:22,204
they started learning the engineering of the day.
他们开始学习当时的工程技术知识

863
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,679
They then came up with an idea for a flexible wing and
他们突然想到一个关于灵活的双翼的注意

864
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,289
they built a prototype and this was the prototype kite/glider
他们就做了一个模型，也就是滑翔机的原型

865
00:40:27,290 --> 00:40:28,899
that they had and they tested a couple of them.
他们这样做了，并且进行了很多次尝试

866
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:29,929
So this was the first step.
这些才是刚刚开始

867
00:40:29,930 --> 00:40:31,109
And they figured out, what do we not know?
他们能想出来，为什么我们不能呢

868
00:40:31,110 --> 00:40:32,719
Why are these gliders failing?
为什么这些飞行员失败了

869
00:40:33,450 --> 00:40:36,869
And they said well now we've got to tactically implement
他们当时说自己已经在理论上完成

870
00:40:36,870 --> 00:40:39,439
a solution that can allow us to very quickly identify
一个帮助我们快速识别的解决方案

871
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,599
all the things we don't know and know them.
所有我们未知的事情然后了解他们

872
00:40:41,910 --> 00:40:43,799
So they invented something called a wind tunnel -
因此他们发明了一种叫做风洞的东西

873
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:45,479
actually I think it was invented before,
我想其实它们可能更早就已被发明

874
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:46,979
but they implemented a new sort of wind tunnel,
但是他们建造了一种全新的风洞

875
00:40:46,980 --> 00:40:47,989
I don't know what the nuance was,
我不知道具体差别在哪里

876
00:40:47,990 --> 00:40:50,424
but it was some sort of more advanced wind tunnel.
但它是一种更为高级的风洞

877
00:40:50,610 --> 00:40:53,149
And it allowed them to test over 200 wing designs and they
它允许他们测试超过200种机翼设计，他们

878
00:40:53,150 --> 00:40:56,059
recorded the coefficients associated with each wing design
记录了每个机翼设计相关系数

879
00:40:56,190 --> 00:40:58,119
in a very detailed way that no one had done before.
用一种以前没人做过的非常具体的方式

880
00:40:58,300 --> 00:41:00,559
And that gave them the ability to systematically
并且给他们能够系统地

881
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:04,309
go out and build a better wing that they were then
去建立一个更好的机翼,然后他们
882
00:41:04,310 --> 00:41:07,259
able to use to build a plane and eventually fly.
能够建造一架飞机最终成功飞行

883
00:41:08,470 --> 00:41:12,579
And it was that grinding process, it wasn't a breakthrough.
真是这种坚持的过，这不仅仅是一个突破

884
00:41:12,580 --> 00:41:15,399
There wasn't some sort of moment of genius with the Wright brothers.
它们离不开莱特兄弟的天资

885
00:41:15,580 --> 00:41:19,899
There wasn't some discovery or penicillin thing that,
没有其他的像发现青霉素的事情


886
00:41:20,140 --> 00:41:22,969
whatever, mythology, these are, what I call,
无论如何，这些都将成为传奇

887
00:41:22,970 --> 00:41:24,129
the sort of black swan outlier,
真是这一群不同寻常的人

888
00:41:24,130 --> 00:41:26,549
rock star motif equivalent events that occurred.
不像产生摇滚巨星那样

889
00:41:26,550 --> 00:41:28,969
These guys literally just took the principle
这些家伙只是按早一定的原则去尝试

890
00:41:28,970 --> 00:41:31,229
of we need to get into the sky,
人类需要飞到天上

891
00:41:31,230 --> 00:41:32,749
that's a problem, we need to solve it.
这就是我们要解决的问题

892
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,029
They found the thing they didn't know.
他们发现了他们不了解的事情

893
00:41:34,030 --> 00:41:35,239
We don't know the drag coefficient,
我们不知道到底有多困难

894
00:41:35,240 --> 00:41:38,099
we don't know the optimum wing design and they solved it.
我们不懂最佳的机翼设计，他们解决了它

895
00:41:39,620 --> 00:41:41,659
And to do that who knows who's on the right,
要按照正确的方式做
896
00:41:41,660 --> 00:41:44,279
this is the Oracle from the Matrix because
如同甲骨文上的矩阵

897
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,019
she tells Neo you got to know thyself.
告诉你必须知道近地轨道

898
00:41:48,796 --> 00:41:50,519
And the one on my left is from Ray Dalio,
我左边的是来自达里欧

899
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:51,609
if you haven't read Ray Dalio's,
如果你还没读过达里欧的作品

900
00:41:51,610 --> 00:41:52,969
The Principles, it's an interesting read.
原则上讲，它是非常有趣的读本

901
00:41:52,970 --> 00:41:54,649
I am not going to critique it,
我不想去评论这一原则

902
00:41:54,650 --> 00:41:56,889
but it's on Bridgewater Associates website.
在桥水联合基金的网站上

903
00:41:57,050 --> 00:41:59,389
But he says there is two Yous. There is the You, the designer.
他声称有两个“你”。一个是作为设计师的你

904
00:41:59,390 --> 00:42:02,569
And then there is the You, that's effectively the actor.
另一个是作为演员的你。

905
00:42:02,730 --> 00:42:06,249
So the designer is the one who gets the people together to accomplish　
所以设计师是那个能把人们团结起来以实现任务Ｘ，Ｙ或者Ｚ的那个人。

906
00:42:06,250 --> 00:42:09,874
a task of X or Y or Z and You as an actor are good at something,
而作为演员的你则擅长编码或者销售之类的事情。

907
00:42:10,130 --> 00:42:13,299
you're either good at writing code, you're good at selling,

908
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:16,364
you're good at operations, who knows.
谁知道呢，或许你也很擅长操作

909
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:18,289
But in order for you to succeed,

910
00:42:18,290 --> 00:42:21,149
you're going to have to recruit people to help you do these sorts

911
00:42:21,150 --> 00:42:23,464
of things that you're not going to be able to do on your own.
但一个人要是想成功，那你就必须雇佣一些人来帮助你完成那些你不可能自己去完成的事。

912
00:42:23,750 --> 00:42:25,929
And in order to do that you have to be self-aware about

913
00:42:25,930 --> 00:42:27,269
what are the things you are going to be good at and do you

914
00:42:27,270 --> 00:42:29,789
have the right people helping you to accomplish them.
为了达到那点，对于什么是你擅长的事，你是否有合适的人来帮助你实现这些事，你要有自知之明。

915
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:34,589
There is a lot more that could be said about this grinding

916
00:42:34,590 --> 00:42:37,809
notion and I don't want to - I know we have limited time now,

917
00:42:37,830 --> 00:42:42,129
but I know there's plenty of books written.
关于这个烦人的概念我还有好多要说的，但我不想说了，因为我知道时间有限，而且也有很多关于这类的书。

918
00:42:42,270 --> 00:42:43,619
Steve Blank's book is a great book.
史蒂夫，布兰克的书就很好。

919
00:42:43,620 --> 00:42:48,249
There are a lot of books out there about - how do you optimize that

920
00:42:48,250 --> 00:42:51,669
process of figuring out what you don't know and then knowing it.
其中有一些是关于你如何处理你不了解事情之后又了解了的事

921
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,329
Innovation is the only sustainable competitive

922
00:42:54,330 --> 00:42:56,469
advantage any company can have.
创新是任何一家公司所拥有的唯一的可持续的竞争优势

923
00:42:56,860 --> 00:43:00,909
I think we can probably spend an entire hour talking about all the companies

924
00:43:00,910 --> 00:43:04,039
that have failed for lack of following an innovative path.
我想我们可以用上整整一小时的时间来讨论那些因缺少创新方式而失败的公司

925
00:43:04,260 --> 00:43:05,334
And you can say, well,好吧，或许你会说

926
00:43:05,630 --> 00:43:10,904
RIM didn't innovate because Apple innovated with a better OS and so,

927
00:43:10,980 --> 00:43:14,989
the iOS is a better OS than RIM and therefore it beat the BlackBerry.
ＲＩＭ不够创新是因为苹果有一款要好于OS的系统，IOS，因此而打败了黑莓。

928
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:20,379
Okay? Easy to say that, but innovation at scale as the company gets

929
00:43:20,380 --> 00:43:22,919
bigger - and this is a later-stage problem that I think is probably

930
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:24,549
appropriate for thinking about early-stage stuff,
好吧，简单的说，规模创新需要公司变得更强大，我认为当考虑前期材料的时候把这些后期问题考虑进来比较合适。

931
00:43:24,550 --> 00:43:29,239
but innovation at scale is challenging for couple of reasons,

932
00:43:29,240 --> 00:43:31,259
it requires perpetual change.
但规模创新面临很多问题的挑战，那就是他需要永久的做出改变。

933
00:43:31,720 --> 00:43:39,304
So the concept of taking risks all the time on new things

934
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,689
and having them not work out is sort of counterintuitive

935
00:43:42,690 --> 00:43:45,484
to what successful people considered to be success,

936
00:43:45,790 --> 00:43:48,634
because when you take risks, odds are you're going to fail.
所以对于新事物一直采取冒险的精神，但事情又不如你所想时，这对于成功人士总认为会成功一样是反直觉的，因为即使你冒了风险，但奇怪的是你却失败了。

937
00:43:48,930 --> 00:43:50,199
When you're trying to do something new,

938
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:51,589
odds are you're going to fail.
当你想要尝试一些新事物时，你却又陷入了失败。

939
00:43:51,890 --> 00:43:55,459
And successful people don't like to fail. They like to be successful.
成功人士不会喜欢失败，他们喜欢成功。

940
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:59,649
And so, the challenge with innovating at scale is that you have

941
00:43:59,650 --> 00:44:03,139
to get people on the mindset that failure is a process,

942
00:44:03,140 --> 00:44:05,589
it is part of that iterative process of grinding.
所以，规模创新的挑战是你要让人们意识到失败是一个过程，他仅仅是重复的烦人的过程的一部分。

943
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:08,569
The Wright brothers didn't consider themselves failures

944
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,719
when the first 199 wing designs didn't work.
当199个机翼都不能运作的时候，怀特兄弟也没有认为他们失败了。

945
00:44:12,420 --> 00:44:14,629
They considered themselves successful at the end of the day because

946
00:44:14,630 --> 00:44:17,679
they accomplished their mission and failing is part of the mission.他
们认为他们最后成功了，因为他们完成了他们的任务，而失败只不过是任务的一部分

947
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:19,624
It's part of the process of getting to that mission.
是实现任务过程的一部分

948
00:44:19,830 --> 00:44:21,939
So people tell me all the time,

949
00:44:21,940 --> 00:44:27,109
well, you're running an insurance company in San Francisco,

950
00:44:27,110 --> 00:44:28,664
you're running an agricultural insurance company,

951
00:44:28,710 --> 00:44:30,119
yeah, you're running an agricultural company.
所以人们总会对我说，多好呀，你在旧金山开了一家保险公司，你开了一家农业保险公司。哦，是的，你开了一家农业公司。

952
00:44:30,270 --> 00:44:32,219
We're not an insurance company or not a company,

953
00:44:32,220 --> 00:44:33,299
we're an innovation company.
我们不是一家保险公司，也不是公司，我们是一家创新公司。

954
00:44:33,300 --> 00:44:36,039
This is how we think about our business,

955
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:38,629
is that we're focused on solving a big problem that doesn't change.
这就是我们所认为的我们的事业，我们致力于解决的重要问题就是一成不变。

956
00:44:38,630 --> 00:44:40,319
Our mission is what it is.
我们的任务就是这样

957
00:44:42,062 --> 00:44:44,119
And then you don't listen to that how is this done?
然后你们还没有听说过这事需要如何实现吧？

958
00:44:44,230 --> 00:44:45,689
What's the model for doing that?
实现它的模型是怎样的？

959
00:44:45,830 --> 00:44:47,179
Someone still has got an interesting model,
有些人还会用那些有趣的模型

960
00:44:47,180 --> 00:44:49,274
why don't we tweak it a little bit?
我们为什么不作出一些改变呢？

961
00:44:49,450 --> 00:44:51,634
Solve the problem that you're setting out to solve

962
00:44:51,750 --> 00:44:54,799
and be smart about how you're solving it. That's it.
那就是，去解决你认为需要解决的问题，并且去机智的解决他们。

963
00:44:55,600 --> 00:45:00,599
A lot of people nowadays are trying to use the business model mould,

964
00:45:00,770 --> 00:45:02,774
think about innovation, it's the opposite.
现在仍然有很多人套用商业模式，想想创新，那正是相反的一种状态

965
00:45:03,130 --> 00:45:04,849
You should be innovating to come up

966
00:45:04,850 --> 00:45:06,354
with the new business model mould.
你应该具备创新精神来想出新的商业模式

967
00:45:06,710 --> 00:45:08,109
And so, when people say you're an X company,

968
00:45:08,110 --> 00:45:09,769
you're a Y company, you're doing X for Y,
所以，当有人说你是在做X公司或者Y公司时，而实际上你是在为了实现Y而做X，或是为了孩子做团购或者其他什么的吧。

969
00:45:09,770 --> 00:45:12,709
or Groupon for kids, or whatever it is?

970
00:45:12,980 --> 00:45:14,739
You're probably going down a path that's very

971
00:45:14,740 --> 00:45:16,239
likely going to result in you being upset,

972
00:45:16,240 --> 00:45:18,374
at the end of day and not having a lot of money.
你也很有可能会走上一条令你悲伤地路，到最后你还是一无所有。

973
00:45:20,544 --> 00:45:22,639
So people say, well, where are all these problems?
人们会问，那么，问题到底出在哪里呢

974
00:45:25,130 --> 00:45:27,609
That wasn't the line,

975
00:45:28,550 --> 00:45:31,414
but I adjusted it because I love this - this theme.
不是因为别的，我之所以走上这条路是因为我真的喜爱他，喜爱这个领域。

976
00:45:33,527 --> 00:45:39,029
The - I think it goes without saying that a lot of people are

977
00:45:39,030 --> 00:45:41,759
doing a lot of similar things in Silicon Valley nowadays.
我想不用说大家也知道现在有很多人在硅谷从事相似的行业。

978
00:45:42,110 --> 00:45:45,769
And there's a lot of people - outspoken people talking about,

979
00:45:45,770 --> 00:45:47,909
there needs to be more innovation in Silicon Valley.
也有很多坦率的人说硅谷仍需要更多的创新精神

980
00:45:48,570 --> 00:45:51,209
Trying to be like, well you know,
那么你懂得，就像那样努力去做。

981
00:45:51,620 --> 00:45:54,659
I can do photo sharing for students at Stanford and we can

982
00:45:54,660 --> 00:45:56,779
do photo sharing on our iPhone for students at Stanford,
我可以给斯坦福大学的学生分享照片，我们也可以给他们分享我们关于iphone的照片，就像X为了Y又为了Z一样

983
00:45:56,780 --> 00:46:01,599
like X for Y for Z. There are problems in the world today that are

984
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,149
more substantial than we've ever faced in the history of humanity,
现在世界上有很多问题比我们人类历史上面临的问题都更实际的问题

985
00:46:04,150 --> 00:46:08,989
you can look around. And it's not just in software and it's not just
你可以四处看看。他不仅仅在软件领域，不只是在加利福尼亚，也不只是在你们这一代人。

986
00:46:08,990 --> 00:46:12,239
in California and it's not just to your peers.

987
00:46:13,900 --> 00:46:16,949
If you look at all the markets in the world today,

988
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:21,144
you can probably break it apart market-by-market and say,

989
00:46:21,420 --> 00:46:23,389
here's something fundamentally flawed with the

990
00:46:23,390 --> 00:46:25,569
way businesses in this market are operating.
如果你观察一下世界上的商场，你可能会把他们分成不同的类，并且你会发现仍然有很多商场在商业运作上存在根本性的缺陷。

991
00:46:25,940 --> 00:46:28,429
You can probably break it apart by saying,

992
00:46:28,430 --> 00:46:31,039
what are businesses in general doing wrong today?
你可能会打断他并问 现在一般的商业都犯了什么样的错误？

993
00:46:31,190 --> 00:46:32,059
You can probably say,

994
00:46:32,060 --> 00:46:34,474
how are governments not operating efficiently today?
你可能会问，现在的政府难道不能有效的管理吗

995
00:46:34,710 --> 00:46:39,419
There's 100,000 different ways that one could break apart the opportunity

996
00:46:39,420 --> 00:46:42,309
set that exists for you with big problems to solve today.
人们会有十万种方法来割裂你获得成功的机会

997
00:46:43,060 --> 00:46:44,469
I'm the kind of guy that when I drive

998
00:46:44,470 --> 00:46:47,454
up - when I drive through traffic, I'm highly stressed.
我就是那种当在道路上开车的时候会感觉压力很大的人

999
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,929
I'm highly stressed because every time I'm driving

1000
00:46:49,930 --> 00:46:52,739
on the freeway or I get through a traffic light,

1001
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,564
I know someone is driving inefficiently and it drives me nuts.
我感到压力大是因为每次我在高速公路上行驶或等信号灯是时候，我知道某人也在毫无效率地行驶，这简直快把我逼疯了

1002
00:46:56,790 --> 00:46:58,819
And I see the way that anyone else have this problem -
我认为别人也会有这样的问题

1003
00:46:58,820 --> 00:47:00,779
there's got to be engineers in this room. Right?
这个房间里肯定有工程师，对吗？

1004
00:47:01,700 --> 00:47:03,519
So you see how people are driving and you're like,

1005
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:05,339
they could be driving better.
所以当你看见别人开车的时候，你可能会认为他们会开的更好。

1006
00:47:05,620 --> 00:47:08,849
This isn't a tough thing, just look around.
这并不是个难事，就是四处环顾一下

1007
00:47:08,850 --> 00:47:10,309
I mean, there are so many opportunities.
我的意思是，有这么多的机会

1008
00:47:10,310 --> 00:47:14,319
And so, to the point of like, what should I be doing?
所以，关键是，我应该做什么

1009
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:15,819
Where are the opportunities to innovate?
创新的机会在哪里

1010
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:17,469
I don't think it takes more than a weekend in the

1011
00:47:17,470 --> 00:47:21,969
library or on the Internet or whatever to see the

1012
00:47:21,970 --> 00:47:25,369
global opportunities that exist in the world today.
我认为你需要花上一周的时间在图书馆或是上网或是其他的什么的吧，去看一看现今世界上存在的全球的机会

1013
00:47:25,570 --> 00:47:27,749
And it's actually a critical time to do this,
做这个时非常必要的

1014
00:47:27,750 --> 00:47:30,169
I think one of the most exciting times to do this ever,

1015
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,829
because there is sort of a global stagnation in economic

1016
00:47:33,830 --> 00:47:37,134
development and innovation is the only way out.
我认为这会是一个令人激动的时刻，因为全球经济有些停滞，创新才是唯一出路

1017
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:40,109
And I know you've heard this from other folks and I know

1018
00:47:40,110 --> 00:47:43,119
Aneesh Chopra goes on about this all the time and I think it's really

1019
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,149
important for people in this room to take heed.
我知道你们从别人那里也听说过这一点，我也知道安尼士，查普拉一直致力于研究这些，并且我认为，你们要注意这一点是十分重要的

1020
00:47:45,430 --> 00:47:48,669
If you're thinking about doing something entrepreneurial,
如果你想做一些企业家做的事

1021
00:47:49,180 --> 00:47:51,004
think about solving a really big problem,
比如去解决一些真正意义上的大问题

1022
00:47:51,300 --> 00:47:53,434
because it's going to be great not just for you,
那是因为他不仅对于你来说是大问题，对于其他人来说也是

1023
00:47:53,660 --> 00:47:57,169
it's going to be great for everyone. And it's really needed now.
现在也着实需要

1024
00:47:57,540 --> 00:48:00,149
And there's really a lot of problems out there that can be solved,

1025
00:48:00,290 --> 00:48:04,409
that can result in lasting meaningful impact in the world.
并且也确实有很多问题需要解决，这会对世界产生持续而有意义的影响

1026
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,334
So in summary I would say,
所以综上所述

1027
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,029
having a premise, know what it is you're trying

1028
00:48:10,030 --> 00:48:11,989
to do and whether it's the right thing,
知道你想从事什么，并且什么是恰当的事是前提

1029
00:48:11,990 --> 00:48:13,919
the strategy is to know what you don't know,
策略是了解你所不了解的

1030
00:48:14,190 --> 00:48:16,179
the tactic is to grind and there's a
方法就是努力工作

1031
00:48:16,180 --> 00:48:19,129
plenty of places for you to innovate.
仍有很多领域需要创新

1032
00:48:19,140 --> 00:48:20,729
And to wrap up, again,
再一次，请注意

1033
00:48:20,790 --> 00:48:25,329
it's this pursuit of entrepreneurism that gives me meaning in life.
正是企业文化的追求给了我生活的意义

1034
00:48:25,510 --> 00:48:27,819
It's why I wake up every day and I have a smile

1035
00:48:27,820 --> 00:48:29,079
on my face about what it is I'm doing.
那就是为什么每天早上我醒来，我会为我所做的事而面带微笑

1036
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:32,389
I don't always have a smile on my face by the end of the day.
我不会经常笑

1037
00:48:33,090 --> 00:48:36,389
But it is for me what I've decided is

1038
00:48:36,390 --> 00:48:38,224
going to give me the most meaning,
当我回首这过去的四十年的时候，对于我来说，我所决定的将要做的事是最有意义的事

1039
00:48:38,550 --> 00:48:40,109
when I look back 40 years from now.

1040
00:48:40,310 --> 00:48:43,109
And I'd say, did I try make the biggest impact I possibly

1041
00:48:43,110 --> 00:48:45,169
could in the time that I was on this earth?
我会问，我是否趁我在人世上尽我所能做出最大的影响？

1042
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:47,589
And the answer is, yes.回答会是，是的

1043
00:48:48,290 --> 00:48:51,009
There is an op-ed piece in The New York Times

1044
00:48:51,010 --> 00:48:54,254
by Neal Gabler and I can't read all my notes.
纽约泰晤士报有一篇 neal gabler写的专栏，我不能一一读出

1045
00:48:54,420 --> 00:48:55,679
He said, we live in the vaunted Age of

1046
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,199
Information - this was in August, 2011.
他说，我们生活的时代是大肆吹嘘的信息时代，那时是2011年八月

1047
00:48:59,030 --> 00:49:01,319
We live in the vaunted Age of Information, courtesy of the Internet.
我们生活在自夸的信息时代，有网络的恩惠。

1048
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:02,929
We seem to have immediate access to anything

1049
00:49:02,930 --> 00:49:04,199
that anyone could ever want to know.
我们似乎能立刻获得我们想要知道的事

1050
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:06,119
We are certainly the most informed generation

1051
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:07,959
in history and he goes on.
我们会是历史上最有信息量的一代，以后也会是

1052
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,069
If information was once grist for ideas,
如果信息对观念有益

1053
00:49:11,220 --> 00:49:14,109
over the last decade it has become competition for them.
那么过去的十年里，他就已成为竞争力

1054
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:16,189
We prefer knowing to thinking because
相对于思考来说我们更喜欢已知，因为已知能带来更多直接的价值

1055
00:49:16,190 --> 00:49:19,499
knowing has more immediate value. It keeps us in the loop.
他能保持我们在消息圈内

1056
00:49:19,500 --> 00:49:21,959
It keeps us connected to our friends and our cohort.
他能使我们与我们的朋友及我们的群体交流

1057
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:23,939
And the implication of a society that

1058
00:49:23,940 --> 00:49:25,849
no longer thinks big are enormous.
社会的意义在于我们不会认为大是巨大的

1059
00:49:26,730 --> 00:49:29,799
And I would encourage everyone here that is considering

1060
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:33,319
entrepreneurism as an activity to think big because now

1061
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:35,609
is the time to do it and there's never been a better time

1062
00:49:35,610 --> 00:49:39,261
in the history of humanity and that's all I have. Thank you.
我会鼓励在座的每一个人把企业文化当成是活动去慎重考虑，因为现在是做这件事的最好时机，人类历史上再不会有比现在我们所拥有的更好的时机了。谢谢

1063
00:49:45,591 --> 00:49:49,431
That was a fabulous way to kick off the

1064
00:49:49,531 --> 00:49:52,609
year and we can open up for questions. We've got 10 minutes.
今年会有一个难以置信的方式开始。现在我们有十分钟的时间提问。

1065
00:49:53,050 --> 00:49:55,209
This isn't really a question but you aren't

1066
00:49:55,210 --> 00:49:56,634
going to hear this until later.
一会儿你们一定要听听这个，这是真正意义上的问题。

1067
00:49:56,830 --> 00:50:00,759
Ironically, and unfortunately, while you're talking about rock stars,

1068
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:03,449
one of the biggest rock stars in Silicon Valley

1069
00:50:03,450 --> 00:50:06,449
history passed away, Steve Jobs died.
讽刺的是，不幸的是，当你们在谈论摇滚巨星的时候，硅谷最伟大的巨星之一史蒂夫，乔布斯去世了。

1070
00:50:06,530 --> 00:50:18,386
You're kidding. Wow. Wow. That's incredibly sad.
你在开玩笑吧，喔喔，那会是难以置信地令人悲伤的

1071
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:22,799
I'm sure we'll have lots of opportunities

1072
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:23,939
to remember him and everything he...
我相信我们有很多机会记起他，或是每一件事……

1073
00:50:23,950 --> 00:50:25,469
Everyone's seen his commencement speech, right?
每个人都看过他在毕业典礼上的演讲，对吧？

1074
00:50:25,470 --> 00:50:27,209
It's a must watch, right?
那是比看的，对吧？

1075
00:50:27,210 --> 00:50:28,859
If you haven't seen it, you got to watch it. Right.
如果你还没看过，那你肯定会去看的，对的。

1076
00:50:28,860 --> 00:50:31,879
That is your homework to watch Steve Jobs' commencement address.
这是你们的家庭作业要去看乔布斯的毕业演讲

1077
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:34,469
In 2005, it was totally...

1078
00:50:35,210 --> 00:50:39,119
And so - look, I mean it's not the right time but that is 
-2005年，完全是一个……恩，如此来看，我的意思是不是一个很好的时间，但也是——

1079
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:42,199
Steve Jobs said I want to leave a dent in the universe.
乔布斯说过要在大学里留下痕迹

1080
00:50:42,630 --> 00:50:45,089
Who here doesn't use an Apple device?
在座的哪一位不用苹果的设备？

1081
00:50:46,270 --> 00:50:51,639
I mean there is literally no human being in our lives that has

1082
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:53,649
made more of an impact on more of the world than that man.
我的意思是从字面上来说，没有一个人比乔布斯对这个世界上所带来的影响更大。

1083
00:50:53,650 --> 00:50:56,499
And that's what he always said he wanted to do,

1084
00:50:56,500 --> 00:51:01,279
and he set out to do it and his achievements speak for themselves.
这也是他经常提到的他想去做的，并且他也开始去做了，他的成就说明了一切。

1085
00:51:03,250 --> 00:51:05,679
Wow. Certainly, it's a sad day.
哦，当然了，这是悲伤地一天。

1086
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,659
And does anyone have any questions that

1087
00:51:07,660 --> 00:51:09,599
are actually related to this talk?
还有没有人对这次演讲有什么问题？

1088
00:51:10,620 --> 00:51:16,169
Here. For your business, what's the competitive advantage and

1089
00:51:16,170 --> 00:51:18,779
why can't other insurance companies analyze the weather,

1090
00:51:18,810 --> 00:51:19,794
are they then offering...?
这里，考虑到您的企业，什么是竞争优势，为什么其他保险公司不具备这样的优势，他们以后是否会具备……？

1091
00:51:19,890 --> 00:51:21,629
Yeah, so insurance companies are generally not...
是的，保险公司通常不会……

1092
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:22,849
Can you repeat the question? Yeah.
您能重复一下问题吗？是的

1093
00:51:22,850 --> 00:51:25,629
So the question was what's our competitive advantage and
所以，我的问题是什么是我们的竞争优势，为什么其他保险公司做不到这一点？

1094
00:51:25,630 --> 00:51:28,249
why can't other insurance companies do what we do?

1095
00:51:28,310 --> 00:51:29,699
It's a little bit nuanced.
这是有点细微差别的

1096
00:51:29,700 --> 00:51:32,279
Insurance companies generally aren't technologically-savvy,

1097
00:51:32,530 --> 00:51:35,459
insurance companies like to underwrite risks in a static

1098
00:51:35,460 --> 00:51:37,549
way and go out with a static what's called rate sheet

1099
00:51:37,550 --> 00:51:39,929
and so there is a pre-underwriting process.
保险公司通常不具备精明的技术，他喜欢用静态的方式来承保风险，用静态的方式处理利率表，因此有一个预承销过程。

1100
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:43,559
The customizability of our products is what really

1101
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,689
gives us the ability to sell them because people

1102
00:51:46,690 --> 00:51:48,689
need to customize them to their - in my farm,

1103
00:51:48,690 --> 00:51:50,814
I plant between May 1st and May 15th.
我们产品的可定制性给了我们销售他们的能力，因为人们需要为他们定制这些产品，在我的农场里，我从五月一号到五月十五号耕种。

1104
00:51:51,110 --> 00:51:53,644
And so the dates, when you change the dates for weather coverage,

1105
00:51:53,780 --> 00:51:56,109
the risk changes pretty dramatically and so the risk

1106
00:51:56,110 --> 00:51:57,609
profile changes pretty dramatically and you have

1107
00:51:57,610 --> 00:52:00,174
to re-rate it in real-time, is how we do it.
所以，当你改变了当前数据的情况，风险和风险预测也会发生相当大的变化，你就必须在恰当的时间重新作出估计，我们也正是这样做的。

1108
00:52:00,550 --> 00:52:04,349
Secondly, the automated sort of processing of claims of understanding

1109
00:52:04,350 --> 00:52:06,179
what weather took place and then sending a check,

1110
00:52:06,180 --> 00:52:07,429
it's sort of a data feed, right?
其次，要理解什么情况下的自动控诉过程然后再检查一下，这也是一种数据补充，对吗？

1111
00:52:07,430 --> 00:52:08,539
You're taking it and you're processing it.
你做这件事，并执行这件事。

1112
00:52:08,540 --> 00:52:12,889
But insurance companies - there are very few insurance companies who have

1113
00:52:12,890 --> 00:52:17,329
the bureaucratic ability to enable an automated payout program.
但保险公司——很少有保险公司的官僚能够启用自动支付程序。

1114
00:52:17,380 --> 00:52:23,284
They have a claims adjustment process and a loss adjustment team

1115
00:52:23,470 --> 00:52:26,504
that does every sort of analysis of every claim that's filed.
他们有一个索赔调整过程和损失调整团队，这个团队会做每一种形式的分析和每一个声称的申请。

1116
00:52:26,700 --> 00:52:29,174
And so automated payouts based solely on data,

1117
00:52:29,350 --> 00:52:32,199
is not in the lifeblood of how insurance companies operate.
所以自动支付完全基于数据,命脉并不在保险公司如何运作。

1118
00:52:32,310 --> 00:52:33,904
And to the point about innovation,

1119
00:52:34,010 --> 00:52:36,539
it is very hard to get them to change how they operate

1120
00:52:36,790 --> 00:52:38,619
and so for them to do this automated payout,

1121
00:52:38,820 --> 00:52:42,394
40% of our customers, our farmers that buy our products,

1122
00:52:42,580 --> 00:52:43,629
get some sort of money back.
关于创新这一点,让他们改变他们的运作方式是很困难的,因此对于他们来说，如果做自动支付,我们40%的客户,买我们的产品的农民,就会得到一些钱。

1123
00:52:43,630 --> 00:52:45,229
So sometimes they get small amounts because we cover

1124
00:52:45,230 --> 00:52:47,749
this sort of very little variations in weather that

1125
00:52:47,750 --> 00:52:50,209
cause little variations in your profit as a farmer.
因为我们变化的很小，作为农民你能得到利润也就只能变动很小，所以有时他们得到的钱很少。
1126
00:52:50,550 --> 00:52:53,059
Those small variations occur to 40% of farmers.
这种小的变动会发生在40%的农民身上。

1127
00:52:53,290 --> 00:52:55,919
So 40% of our farmers are getting some money back at the end of the

1128
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:58,824
season or getting some deduction on the premium that they owe us.
所以40%的农民会在季末的时候取回他们的钱，并适当的减少他们应该给我们的保险金数目。

1129
00:52:59,220 --> 00:53:01,889
And that's called a 40% claims frequency.
那个就叫做40%的索赔频率。

1130
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:03,429
The typical claims frequency for insurance

1131
00:53:03,430 --> 00:53:04,609
companies is like less than 3%.
保险公司典型的索赔频率好像不到3%。

1132
00:53:04,610 --> 00:53:07,589
So for them to then scale up their loss adjustment

1133
00:53:07,590 --> 00:53:10,054
program by 10 X would be untenable.
所以他们然后扩大他们的损失调整计划10 倍，这是站不住脚的。


1134
00:53:10,380 --> 00:53:12,869
So there is a bureaucratic and then there is a couple of

1135
00:53:12,870 --> 00:53:15,289
sort of - what I would call sort of core technology IP pieces

1136
00:53:15,290 --> 00:53:18,809
that we have built that are - we would go head-to-head with

1137
00:53:18,810 --> 00:53:21,029
a technology company and feel comfortable, so.
所以有一种官僚,然后有一种——我称之为类核心技术的IP块,这是我们已经建立了的,我们就去和一家技术公司竞争，因为这会让我们感到舒适。

1138
00:53:23,860 --> 00:53:26,819
I'd imagine the accuracy of your weather prediction algorithm

1139
00:53:26,820 --> 00:53:28,799
is critical and something you guys are constantly trying

1140
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,054
to increase for your benefit and for your, the farmers and stuff.
我想象你的天气预报的准确性是至关重要的，你们不断试图增加你的利益和农民的利益等等。

1141
00:53:32,260 --> 00:53:35,839
Where do you guys see the trajectory from your company providing

1142
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:39,969
insurance for farmers switching over to creating the best weather

1143
00:53:39,970 --> 00:53:42,339
prediction algorithm or software that's out there? Yeah.
你们在哪里看到你们公司从为农民提供保险转换到创造最好的天气预测算法或软件的轨迹的?是的。


1144
00:53:42,340 --> 00:53:44,019
So next week, when we announce our name change,

1145
00:53:44,020 --> 00:53:46,139
I hope it will frame sort of the direction that the company's headed,

1146
00:53:46,140 --> 00:53:47,529
which is a broader scope.
所以下周,当我们宣布我们的名字改变,我希望它将以公司的领导的要求排列,这是一个更广泛的范围。

1147
00:53:47,900 --> 00:53:51,459
We focus on farmers but there is more that we can do with the

1148
00:53:51,460 --> 00:53:53,579
platform that we've built and the technology that we've built

1149
00:53:53,580 --> 00:53:55,379
where we're predicting the weather on a micro-scale basis,

1150
00:53:55,380 --> 00:53:58,169
10,000 times for the next two years than we're doing today.
我们关注的是农民，但相比我们已经建立的平台,和我们已经建立在微尺度的基础上预测天气情况的技术,我们还有更多要做的，在接下来的两年里，这会是现在的10000倍。

1151
00:53:58,170 --> 00:54:00,794
Right now, we're underwriting insurance policies with that data.
现在,我们用那个数据承保保险政策。

1152
00:54:00,990 --> 00:54:02,859
And in the future, we hope to use that data to

1153
00:54:02,860 --> 00:54:05,199
build interesting new products that can enable

1154
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:06,899
new ways that people interact with the weather,

1155
00:54:07,010 --> 00:54:09,129
plan their businesses, think about what they are doing,
1156
00:54:09,130 --> 00:54:12,459
get an alert if it's going to rain and you

1157
00:54:12,460 --> 00:54:13,889
should wear a raincoat or something. Right?
未来，我们希望用那个数据来创造有趣的新产品，这一产品是能够实现人和天气的相互作用的新方法，使得他们能够计划业务的安排，并为他们要做的事做出提示，例如天气要下雨，你应该穿雨衣或是其他的什么的，对吧？


1158
00:54:13,890 --> 00:54:16,299
I mean - like there is a whole slew of products and services

1159
00:54:16,300 --> 00:54:19,159
that we could eventually build on this platform that

1160
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:20,649
we've already built the infrastructure for.
我的意思是,就像有一个大量的产品和服务,我们可能最终建立这个平台,我们已经建立了基础。


1161
00:54:20,820 --> 00:54:22,794
And so, that's sort of where I think we're headed.那么，
这就是我认为我们的前进方向。

1162
00:54:23,070 --> 00:54:25,219
Agriculture is such a huge opportunity.
农业是一个巨大的机会。

1163
00:54:25,300 --> 00:54:29,199
We can scale into different crops.
我们可以种植不同的农作物。

1164
00:54:29,370 --> 00:54:30,819
We're selling three crops today,

1165
00:54:30,820 --> 00:54:33,774
it's an unusual talk but for us a product is a crop,

1166
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:35,334
corn and wheat and soybeans.
我们现在卖三种农作物，这是一场不寻常的演讲，但是对于我们来说，产品就是农作物，玉米，小麦和大豆。

1167
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:37,509
We're going to launch sorghum and cotton and rice.
我们将要把高粱，棉花和大米投入市场。

1168
00:54:37,510 --> 00:54:39,429
So these are the products that we're launching.
所以这些就是我们要投放市场的产品

1169
00:54:39,430 --> 00:54:40,809
And then we can launch that in Australia,

1170
00:54:40,810 --> 00:54:43,119
and in Canada and Brazil and in Asia and then India

1171
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,349
and so there is ways for us to expand our business

1172
00:54:45,350 --> 00:54:47,274
in agriculture and then into different verticals.
然后，我们可以开始在澳大利亚，加拿大，巴西，亚洲，然后是印度的市场，这些是拓宽我们农业方面的市场，然后呈垂直方向拓宽到各个领域。

1173
00:54:47,330 --> 00:54:49,529
And then into data services and so there is lots of ways that we

1174
00:54:49,530 --> 00:54:52,139
think about building on the platform that we've built today.
然后在数字服务方面，有很多方法我们可以考虑构建我们今天已经构建的平台。

1175
00:54:52,980 --> 00:54:53,554
Back there.后面的那位。

1176
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:57,667
So one of the things I took from your talk is this ability to

1177
00:54:57,767 --> 00:55:02,709
be fearless or you know disregard the risks involved somewhat

1178
00:55:02,808 --> 00:55:06,061
or at least think that you can go out there and take the risks.
所以，我从您的演讲获得到的一个信息就是，要有无畏的精神或是忽略可能存在的风险，至少是能够认为你可以脱离风险或是能够承担风险。

1179
00:55:06,161 --> 00:55:09,344
In China, however, where most of what I do is based,

1180
00:55:09,444 --> 00:55:15,959
the idea of failure is so - like it will just

1181
00:55:15,960 --> 00:55:18,189
totally take out your whole family,
然而在中国，我所做的大多事都贯穿着失败，就好像失败会让你倾家荡产，会让你脱离团体一样。

1182
00:55:18,190 --> 00:55:20,579
your whole community. You're not allowed to fail in other words.
换句话说，你根本就不允许失败。

1183
00:55:21,100 --> 00:55:27,059
So how would you help inspire those that are in places

1184
00:55:27,380 --> 00:55:29,249
like China where failure is not an option? Okay.
所以，你是如何鼓励这些类似在中国这样的地方的人的，那里失败是不被允许的，好吗？

1185
00:55:29,348 --> 00:55:35,269
The question was how would one help folks

1186
00:55:35,270 --> 00:55:38,199
in China to be more entrepreneurial, where failure is not an option?
您的问题是，如何帮助在中国的人变得更企业化，那里不允许有失败。

1187
00:55:39,881 --> 00:55:42,179
I don't know enough about that market or the cultural

1188
00:55:42,180 --> 00:55:44,744
dynamics there or the economic incentives that exist.
关于那里的市场和文化动力，以及存在的经济诱因，我并不是很了解。

1189
00:55:44,970 --> 00:55:46,554
In the U.S., there are economic incentives.
在美国，是会有经济诱因的。

1190
00:55:46,590 --> 00:55:49,034
If you build a good business there is a flow of capital that will

1191
00:55:49,130 --> 00:55:52,749
give you more money to grow the business and eventually you can

1192
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:57,439
make money by selling the business or taking it public or selling

1193
00:55:57,440 --> 00:56:00,749
some of your shares or paying yourself a good salary.
如果你建立的企业够好的话，就会有一个资本流动，资本流动能使你有更多的钱来拓展企业，最后你可以通过出售企业，使其公有化，或是卖掉部分股份，或是给你自己一个很好地报酬的形式来赚钱。

1194
00:56:00,940 --> 00:56:03,464
If the economic incentives are there and

1195
00:56:03,700 --> 00:56:06,764
the bureaucracy frees one to innovate,

1196
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:09,539
I believe this should be natural human behavior

1197
00:56:09,540 --> 00:56:12,144
to solve big problems and it will happen.
如果有经济诱因，官僚机构也允许自由创新，我相信解决即将发生的问题是人类的本能。

1198
00:56:12,310 --> 00:56:15,909
So I would say like let's just identify what the bureaucratic problems

1199
00:56:15,910 --> 00:56:19,919
are and what economic incentives aren't there and identify ways

1200
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:21,829
that maybe they could be implemented but I don't know enough about

1201
00:56:21,830 --> 00:56:24,849
the market specifically to opine on to your point.
所以，让我们分析一下官僚问题，那里没有什么经济诱因，以及他们会实施什么样的，我不太了解的你方市场所固有的方式。

1202
00:56:26,720 --> 00:56:30,469
How are you modeling climate change into your weather models?
您是怎么在你得天气模式下模拟气候变化的？

1203
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:33,054
Climate change - how do we model climate change is the question.
气候变化——问题是我们如何模拟气候变化。

1204
00:56:33,210 --> 00:56:35,169
Climate change has a number of different factors.
气候变化有很多不同的因素。

1205
00:56:35,170 --> 00:56:37,019
So there are changes in temperature over time,

1206
00:56:37,020 --> 00:56:38,479
which global warming is a big sort of thing

1207
00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:39,609
that people hear about all the time.
温度时刻都在变化，全球变暖是人们一直以来听说过的最重要的问题。

1208
00:56:39,770 --> 00:56:43,084
Yes, there are trends in the average temperature

1209
00:56:43,250 --> 00:56:44,559
everywhere and the temperature,

1210
00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:46,649
on average, is going up almost everywhere.
是的，全球每个地方的平均气温都有上涨的趋势。

1211
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:51,589
More importantly, the trends in how much storm events

1212
00:56:51,590 --> 00:56:54,374
are occurring or how frequently we're seeing droughts

1213
00:56:54,530 --> 00:56:55,959
or how bad those droughts are getting.
更重要的是，这个趋势会如何影响风暴发生的次数，干旱发生的次数以及干旱程度。

1214
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:58,074
There are trends in those indices.
这些事件都有发生的趋势。

1215
00:56:58,380 --> 00:56:59,789
And those are the indices that we care most

1216
00:56:59,790 --> 00:57:02,019
about because that's what we're focused.
这些事件也是我们最关心的，因为他们一直都是我们致力于研究的。

1217
00:57:02,020 --> 00:57:05,519
And yes, there are trends across the board. The climate is changing.
是的，全球都有这样的趋势。气候在变化。

1218
00:57:05,900 --> 00:57:08,359
Whether or not the climate is changing as a result of manmade

1219
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:12,469
effects or we're going through a natural multi-decade or multi-century

1220
00:57:12,470 --> 00:57:14,664
or multi-millennial cycle, I don't know.
我不知道气候的变化是人类影响的结果还是因为我们经历了数十年，几个世纪还是几千年的结果。

1221
00:57:14,990 --> 00:57:17,949
But there are changes underway and we model those changes

1222
00:57:18,110 --> 00:57:21,019
and incorporate them in all of our simulation models.
但是变化一直都在，我们模拟这些变化并将它们包含在我们的仿真模型中。

1223
00:57:24,110 --> 00:57:26,219
You mentioned the fact that you said you didn't know

1224
00:57:26,220 --> 00:57:29,074
much about either insurance or about farming,

1225
00:57:29,190 --> 00:57:31,881
like how did you get around that when

1226
00:57:31,981 --> 00:57:34,193
you were starting up your business?
你提到了你既不懂保险也不懂农业的事实，那你是如何说服你自己开始从事商业的呢？

1227
00:57:38,280 --> 00:57:39,229
Yeah - sorry, the question was,

1228
00:57:39,230 --> 00:57:41,529
how did I learn about insurance and farming,

1229
00:57:41,530 --> 00:57:43,419
given that I didn't have any background when we started the business?
啊——不好意思，您的问题是我是怎么学习的保险和农业，考虑到我开始从商的时候对他们还是一窍不通。

1230
00:57:43,420 --> 00:57:45,379
I mean we had to learn about a lot of different industries.
我的意思是我们应该学习尽可能多的领域。

1231
00:57:45,380 --> 00:57:47,909
So we learnt about our customers' problems and then

1232
00:57:47,910 --> 00:57:49,179
along the way you learn about the customers.
所以我们要学习客户的问题，照此下去就会了解客户。

1233
00:57:49,180 --> 00:57:50,884
So we talk to a lot of farmers.
所以我们会和很多农民交谈。

1234
00:57:51,060 --> 00:57:52,849
And then we hired people that know farmers

1235
00:57:52,850 --> 00:57:54,484
and we hired people that were farmers.
我们会雇佣了解农民的人以及那些原来就是农民的人。

1236
00:57:54,820 --> 00:57:57,759
And those are the folks that gave us the insight that

1237
00:57:57,760 --> 00:57:59,459
we needed to help us think about our business.
这些是我们需要的给了我们了解我们是事业的洞察力的人。

1238
00:57:59,460 --> 00:58:00,839
And so, we didn't say there is no way we can

1239
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:01,729
do this because we don't know farming.
所以，我们不会说因为我们不懂农业我们就不能这么做。

1240
00:58:01,730 --> 00:58:04,354
And there is no way we can do this because we don't know insurance.
我们不懂保险我们就不能做。

1241
00:58:04,650 --> 00:58:06,709
I hired lawyers and asked them about insurance.我雇佣律师问他们关于保险的问题。

1242
00:58:06,710 --> 00:58:08,239
We hired people with an insurance background

1243
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:09,824
to the company that help advise us.
我们给公司雇有保险背景的人，让他们帮我们提建议。

1244
00:58:10,100 --> 00:58:13,299
And so, along the way, you have to make the decisions to be - this

1245
00:58:13,300 --> 00:58:16,739
goes back to the sort of two Yous, the designer me has to say,

1246
00:58:17,060 --> 00:58:20,369
me the person with knowledge doesn't know shit about insurance.
所以，照此下去，你就必须要做出选择—那就又回到了两个“你”的问题上，我作为设计师，不得不说，我对保险可真是一点也不懂。

1247
00:58:20,630 --> 00:58:22,109
I need to find someone who does.
我必须要找个懂得人。

1248
00:58:22,270 --> 00:58:23,999
And so you need to be self-aware and you need to be able

1249
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:26,334
to say like we don't have the right people on board.
所以你要有自知之明，你可能会说我们现在没有合适的人。

1250
00:58:26,510 --> 00:58:28,979
I didn't know how to scale a sales team, Greg does.
我不知道如何组成销售团队，但格雷格知道。

1251
00:58:29,090 --> 00:58:30,859
Greg is our Chief Revenue Officer and without him,

1252
00:58:30,860 --> 00:58:32,119
we wouldn't have succeeded at what

1253
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:33,609
we're doing right now as a company.
格雷格是首席营收官，没有他，作为公司我们现在所做的一切都不会成功。

1254
00:58:33,940 --> 00:58:34,839
And so along the way,

1255
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:37,699
you have to make those decisions to recruit and incorporate

1256
00:58:37,700 --> 00:58:39,749
advice and people that are going to be useful to you,

1257
00:58:39,750 --> 00:58:42,234
and that's where you have to be smart about those decisions.
所以，照这样说，你就必须决定好雇佣那些对你有用的人，吸收那些对你有益的建议，并且对于这些决定你必须足够明智。

1258
00:58:42,510 --> 00:58:43,979
We have one more question, right in front.
我们现在还可以再提一个问题。

1259
00:58:44,050 --> 00:58:46,479
How does WeatherBill hedge itself against

1260
00:58:46,480 --> 00:58:48,389
drastic events like Katrina? Yeah.   
WeatherBill公司是如何回避类似飓风的剧烈事件的？

1261
00:58:48,390 --> 00:58:50,699
The question is how does WeatherBill hedge against drastic events,

1262
00:58:50,700 --> 00:58:52,954
like catastrophic weather events, I am assuming you mean. 
您的问题是WeatherBill公司是如何回避剧烈事件的，像灾难性的天气事件，我认为您是想问这个。

1263
00:58:53,190 --> 00:58:56,229
We actually have 100% quota share reinsurance arrangements.
我们实际上安排了100%的配额再保险。

1264
00:58:56,230 --> 00:58:59,374
So we take no balance sheet risk on the stuff that we write
.所以，我们写的资产负债表没有风险。

1265
00:58:59,470 --> 00:59:01,969
So when we sell insurance and there is exposure,

1266
00:59:01,970 --> 00:59:04,549
there is a reinsurer that stands behind us and at the end of

1267
00:59:04,550 --> 00:59:06,879
a season if we make a profit we keep some of that profit,

1268
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:08,299
we also take some money off the top.
所以当我们卖保险的时候，如果有灾难性事件，就会有再保险人帮助我们，在季末的时候，我们可以从我们获得的利润中保留一些利润或者从总收入中拿出一些资金。

1269
00:59:08,590 --> 00:59:12,494
If we have a loss, the reinsurer covers 100% of the loss.
如果有损失，那么再保险人会100%赔偿损失。

1270
00:59:12,870 --> 00:59:15,059
And so, we've transferred all of the risk that we have

1271
00:59:15,060 --> 00:59:17,099
into the guys that have billions and trillions of dollars

1272
00:59:17,100 --> 00:59:19,989
and there is a big reinsurance market out there.
所以，我们已经将风险转移给了那些有十亿，千亿美元的人，，而且那里也有很多再保险市场。

1273
00:59:20,070 --> 00:59:22,589
I mean venture capitalists don't want to be betting on the weather.
我的意思是风险投资家不想赌天气。

1274
00:59:22,780 --> 00:59:24,689
They want to bet on a team that can help other

1275
00:59:24,690 --> 00:59:26,179
people's capital bet on the weather.
他们想要以团队的形式帮其他人用他们的钱赌天气。

1276
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:28,209
And so that's sort of what we're doing.
所以那就是我们正在做的事。

1277
00:59:28,470 --> 00:59:30,719
I'm sure you'll agree this is an absolutely fascinating

1278
00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:34,534
talk and I want to thank you for joining us today. Thank you.
我相信你们会认为这是一场有绝对吸引力的演讲，很感谢你们今天能来参加。谢谢！