语境分析。课程的下一部分我们即将开始 Analysis of the Context. The following part of the course we are about to begin
解决了我们交易计划的第一点，对总体背景的分析 addresses the first point of our trading plan, the analysis of the general context
市场的。要做到这一点，我们将着眼于有助于我们的概念和想法 of the market. To do this we will look at the concepts and ideas that will help us
以确定中长期交易偏向为关键因素 to determine the trading bias in the medium and long term as a key element
在开始分析短期形势之前。让我们 before proceeding to the analysis of the situation in the short term. Let's get
开始了。我们要找的不是。市场交易不仅仅是买入 started. What we are not looking for. Market trading is not just about buying
或出售。通常最明智的做法是什么都不做， or selling. Quite often the most sensible thing to do is to do nothing,
待在外面，不要交易。在解释信号之前，我们想 stay on the outside, and not trade. Before explaining the signals that we want to
为了评估一个交易机会，弄清楚是很重要的 see in order to evaluate a trading opportunity, it is important to be clear
关于我们不想看到的东西是为了抛弃那些不想看到的东西 about what we do not want to see in order to discard those ideas that don't
给我们足够的信心，让我们拿钱去冒险。我们往往会忽略这一点 offer us enough confidence to risk our money on. We tend to overlook this and
简单地弄清楚一些事情就能大大改善我们的 simply being clear about a few things could substantially improve our
表演我们来看看一些真实的例子 performance. We are going to look at some real examples of situations that should
警告我们不要进入市场。确定相对于的当前位置 warn us of entering the market. Identify the current position relative to the
交易量的最后一个高峰，不要反向交易。这是一个至关重要的概念 last big peak in volume and don't trade against it. This is a vital concept that
我们经常没有考虑到，但它可以帮助我们避免进入 we often don't take into account, but it can help us to avoid entering at the
市场的错误一端。我们都知道体积的重要性 wrong end of the market. We all know the importance of volume and what it
隐含地告诉我们关于图表的信息。让我们应用一个简单的规则 implicitly tells us about the chart. Let's apply a simple rule of
解释。如果我们的价格低于行动关联一个大 interpretation. If we are below the price action associated with a large
成交量，我们假设大部分成交量都有看跌的意图。如果在 volume, we are going to assume that most of that volume had bearish intent. If on
另一方面，我们在它上面，我们要假设控制，至少在 the other hand, we are above it, we are going to assume that control, at least in
从短期来看，买方是有利的。这个简单的想法太强大了 the short term, is on the side of the buyers. This simple idea is too powerful
忽视。唯一的疑问是我们所认为的巨大数量。当我们 to ignore. The only doubt is what we consider to be significant volume. As we
要知道，所有涉及量分析的内容都必须考虑 know, everything involving volume analysis must necessarily be considered
相对而言，与之前看到的水平进行比较。我们 in relative terms, comparing levels with what has been previously seen. We
不应该强迫这个问题。这个标志应该是非常直观的，比如 shouldn't have to force this issue. This sign should be something very visual, as
我们可以在这个例子中看到。所以这里的经验法则很简单。如果你想 we can see in this example. So the rule of thumb here is simple. If you want to
购买一项资产，至少要等到价格高于前一项 buy an asset, wait at least until the price positions itself above the last
成交量高峰。显然，这种情况本身并不足以 big peak in volume. Obviously, this condition is not by itself enough to
评估购买。我现在的建议是等待入场 assess the purchase. My recommendation would now be to wait for the entry
触发出现在一些交易水平。但是，尽管这可能还不够 trigger to appear on some trading level. But although it may not be a sufficient
条件，当然是必不可少的一个。价格可能会上涨 condition, it is certainly an indispensable one. The price could go up
或者不是，但原则上，我们已经有了另一个非常重要的有利信号。 or not, but in principle, we already have another very important sign in our favor.
我们必须避免的另一种情况是将我们自己置于不利地位 Another circumstance that we must avoid is positioning ourselves against
皮下行为会传播一段距离。它们很容易识别，因为 hypodermic behaviors that travel some distance. They are easily identifiable due
到他们在图表上留下的V形。这些操作确定了一个大的条件 to the V shape they leave on the chart. These actions identify a large condition
从而揭示超买或超卖事件，我们 of market excess and therefore reveal overbought or oversold events that we
一定要避免，特别是如果他们出现后市场继续 must avoid, especially if after their appearance the market continues to
以同样的方式发展。正如我们在例子中看到的，以及 develop in the same manner. As we can see in the example, as well as the peak in
成交量，也给看跌环境增加了力量，重要的是 volume, which also adds strength to the bearish context, what is relevant is that
市场已经达到了大多数参与者都认为过高的水平， the market has reached levels where most of the participants agree is excessive,
之后，它开始不停地下降。关键是我们知道 after which it has started to fall without stopping. The key is that we do
不知道看跌势头会持续多久。基本估值 not know how far the bearish momentum might continue. The fundamental valuation
价格可能已经发生了重大变化，这种情况可能会持续下去 of the price may have changed significantly, and this context may last
下去。既然我们不知道，最好远离这类市场 indefinitely. Since we cannot know, it is best to stay out of this type of market
至少在我们看到一些与这种行为相反的价格走势之前 at least until we see some price action that goes against this behavior, which
可能会让我们改变对它现状的看法。换句话说，在 might make us change our view of its current condition. In other words, at the
至少，我们应该期待看到另一个具有相同含义的V型转折 very least, we should expect to see another V turn with the same implications
或者是积累结构。我不是说看到这个之后我们应该 or an accumulation structure. I'm not saying that after we see this we should
入市购买，简单来说是最低的必要条件 enter the market to buy, simply that it is the minimum essential condition that
我们应该等着看，然后再寻找更多的迹象，为我们提供一个 we should wait to see before we look for more signs that provide us with a
有利的交易环境。下面的例子是关于清楚的 favorable trading context. The following example is about being clear about the
路线图最有可能基于最后一个关键的交易行动而发展。 roadmap that is most likely to develop based on the last crucial trading action.
在这种情况下，如果我们看到最近的事件是爆发在 In this case, if we see that the most recent event is a breakout in the
与我们的方向相反，我们不应该反向交易。如果我们想买，我们 opposite direction to ours, we should not trade against it. If we want to buy, we
应该避免这样做，如果我们之前看到一个向上的推力。同样地,如果 should avoid doing so if we have previously seen an up thrust. Likewise, if
我们正在寻找出售的机会，如果有，我们应该避免这样做 we are looking for an opportunity to sell, we should avoid doing so if we have
刚看到一个春天。为什么与路线图有关，每个行为都是可能的 just seen a spring. The why has to do with the roadmap each behavior is likely
跟随。在看到潜在的上涨推力后，价格很可能会转向 to follow. After seeing a potential up thrust, the price will most likely turn
向下，直到它至少达到一个足够重要的平衡 downwards until it visits at least a sufficiently important equilibrium or
流动性区。幻灯片上的例子特别有趣，因为我们 liquidity zone. The example on the slide is particularly interesting because we
甚至可能即将看到一个积累结构。如果我们仔细看 may even be about to see an accumulation structure. If we look carefully at the
图表显示，价格首先来自于较低低点的虚假突破 chart, the price has first come from a false breakout at the lower lows and
然后是一个重要的力量标志，把它送到了前一个地方 then a significant sign of strength that has sent it all the way to the previous
高位。但是接下来会发生什么呢?嗯，市场剧烈逆转并下跌 highs. But what happens then? Well, the market reverses violently and falls
低于之前的高点，再次进入区间。这是当前的环境。 below the previous highs, re-entering the range again. This is the current context.
市场的控制权可能已经易手，并屈服于下跌 Control of the market might have changed hands and succumbed to the downward
压力在发展成分配方案之前。我们不知道 pressure before developing into a distribution scheme. We don't know what's
接下来会发生，但这是我们应该记住的一种可能性。你 going to happen next, but this is a possibility we should keep in mind. You
甚至可以评估进场做空的可能性吗 could even evaluate the possibility of entering the market with a short
的位置。这一点更有争议，但你至少应该避免购买 position. This is more debatable, but what you should avoid at least is buying
观察情况后。你可能无法利用 after observing the situation. You may not be able to take advantage of the
随后的市场行动，如果分配方案，然后确认和 subsequent market action if the distribution scheme is then confirmed and
价格下跌了，但至少你不会因为做错了而蒙受损失 the price falls, but at least you won't take a loss from being on the wrong side
市场的。这是一个非常有价值的概念。你必须继续努力 of the market. This is a very valuable concept. You will have to work on
培养灵活的心态来实时观察这些信息， developing a flexible mindset to observe this information in real time,
在这里演示一下，然后做出最好的决定。我们要看什么呢 demonstrate it here, and make the best decisions. What would we have to see in
这种特殊情况会重新激活看涨情景吗?好吧，至少我们 this particular situation to reactivate the bullish scenario? Well, at least we
会不会看到价格反弹到最后一个横盘运动区域 would have to see the price recover the last zone of sideways movement and
发展成潜在的成藏构造。这是一个例子 develop into a potential accumulation structure. This would be an example of
至少我们应该期待从市场上看到。这将是一个真的 the least we should expect to see from the market. This would be a really
积极的情况除了潜在的向上推力，可能是说谎 positive situation aside from the potential up thrust that may be lying
在等待。如果积聚在那里，一个额外的迹象会增加 in wait. If an accumulation develops there, an additional sign that would add
更有可能出现的情况是未能形成看跌走势 more weight to the scenario would be failure to develop the bearish movement
我们可以预期，根据美联储制定的看跌路线图 that we would expect based on the bearish roadmap established by the
潜在的向上推力。这一点至关重要，我们应该时刻牢记。 potential up thrust. This is crucial and something we should always keep in mind.
根据具体情况和具体情况，市场的行为是公正的 Depending on the case and the particular situation, what the market does is just
和它没能做什么一样重要。在此背景下，价格的事实 as important as what it fails to do. In this context, the fact that the price
没有出现我们预期的看跌走势，这是一个迹象，表明 did not develop the bearish movement that we expected is a sign that suggests a
很多潜在的力量。市场的一个指标确实继续向a倾斜 lot of underlying strength. An indicator of the market continues to be truly skewed toward a
看跌运动和我们刚刚看到的虚假突破动作 bearish movement and that the false breakout action that we have just seen
没有理论所暗示的效果。它可能是这样发展的 did not have the effect suggested by the theory. It may have developed this way
因为很多交易者已经平仓获利，但事实的确如此 because many traders have closed their position there taking profit, but it is
也没有引起看跌者的足够兴趣来大举入市。 also not generated enough interest from bears to enter the market aggressively.
因此，买家仍然控制着局势。一些交易员 And therefore, buyers have remained in control of the situation. Some traders
既然我们仍低于利率，是否可以继续认为这种情况风险太大 could continue to see this situation as too risky since we are still below the
潜在的高推力。在这种情况下，我们可以继续看 high of the potential up thrust. In this case, we could continue to look at
可能的情况，采取保守的观点，我们只评估 possible scenarios and take a conservative view where we only assess
再次激活看涨情景的可能性 the possibility of activating the bullish scenario again in the event that
价格实际上高于之前的高点。这是一个 the price effectively positions itself above the previous high. This is a much
在信心方面对我们来说是更积极的情况，因为我们实际上 more positive situation for us in terms of confidence since we have practically
一切都对我们有利，下面有大量堆积，结构出现故障 everything in our favor, a large accumulation below, a structural failure
由于看涨的虚假突破没有持续，又一次重新积累 since the bullish false breakout was not sustained, another reaccumulation in
利好，且足够多的看涨意向使价格高于之前的高点。有 favor, and enough bullish intent to take the price above the previous high. Having
这么多对我们有利的信号为我们提供了一个风险较小的交易。另一方面， so many signals in our favor offers us a trade with less risk. On the other hand,
这也意味着潜在利润的减少。无论如何，它无疑是一个 it also entails a diminished potential profit. In any case, it is undoubtedly a
这对我们很有吸引力。另一个例子说明了这样做的必要性 very attractive situation for us. This other example illustrates the need to
记住市场和技术分析的基本原则。那 bear in mind a fundamental principle of the markets and technical analysis. That
价格是否更有可能继续向同一方向移动 is that the price is more likely to continue moving in the same direction in
它一直在变化，所以你不应该试图预测市场 which it has been moving so you shouldn't try to anticipate the market
逆转。如果我们看到一个分布和一个看跌趋势的发展，在 reversal. If we see a distribution and the development of a bearish trend, in
原则上，最明智的做法是在同一方向上交易。我说 principle, the most sensible thing to do is to trade in the same direction. I say
原则上因为趋势运动可能会被耗尽。起因的结果 in principle because the trend movement may be exhausted. The effect of the cause
已经走完了它的路线，它正处于一个有趣的向上转向的位置。但 has run its course and it is in an interesting position to turn upwards. But
同样，我们也不能确定。Wyckoff方法是一种反应性方法 again, we can't be sure of this. The Wyckoff method is a reactive approach and
我们应该在看到某些行为后才采取行动。购买它可能很诱人 we should only act after seeing certain behaviors. It may be very tempting to buy
因为价格似乎已经跌得太多了，但并没有太多的 because the price seems to have fallen too far, but there isn't a great deal of
这是合乎逻辑的，因为市场可以继续下跌，只要它愿意。 logic to this since the market can continue to fall for as long as it wants.
做决定时要非常小心，因为你认为价格在变动 Be very careful when making decisions because you think the price has moved
太远了。“太远”或“太少”是不应该应用的术语 too far. Too far or too little are terms that should not be applied when
分析市场行为。太远或太少都是相对的。在这个 analyzing the behavior of the market. Too far or too little is relative. In this
情况下，虽然价格可能会发展一个快速的模式，并转向上升， situation, although the price could develop a fast pattern and turn upwards,
当向下的不平衡如此明显时，它给了我们更多的信心 when the imbalance downwards is so evident, it gives us much more confidence
在决定之前，先看一个缓慢积累结构的发展 to see the development of a slow accumulation structure before deciding
是否购买。 whether to buy.