We live in an amazingly uncertain world. What’s going to happen with Europe? What’s going
to happen with our economy? What’s going to happen with sales the next six months?
Will China be strong? Will you be strong? What'll happen with housing? The problem
with the uncertainty is it keeps you frozen. It doesn't let you move forward. It doesn't
give you any confidence. So in an uncertain world, I have to ask myself, “What am I
certain about? Am I certain of nothing?”
And the answer is you can be certain about so much, it’s unbelievable. For example,
right now it’s winter. I’m certain it'll be spring followed by summer. By the way,
I had that certainty because there is a science of cycles; there’s over 300 known cycles
- weather cycles, business cycles, biological cycles, that give you a complete handle and
accurate forecast of the future.
As a matter of fact economists have been trained in the science of cycles. But if you noticed
the economists have been really wrong lately. Why have they been so wrong? They’re
using the science of cycles. After all, Warren Buffett is the richest guy in the world
because of the science of cycles. He knows when the stock market goes up; he’s going
to sell and when it goes down he’s going to buy, which is probably the opposite of
most other people. That’s why he’s rich.
So, is there another kind of change, you have to ask yourself. And the answer is yes.
And I call it linear change. Unlike cyclical change, when linear change hits we’re not
going back. Once you got a smartphone, you're not going back to a dumb phone. Once the
people in China parked their bicycle and get a car, they're not going to say, gee, lets
get rid of the car and go back to the bike. Once people in India get refrigeration for
their homes, they’re not going to say we don’t need refrigeration. Now these are
one way - they’re not cycles - one-way linear changes that had profound and amazingly predictable
consequences.
So in a world of uncertainty, I have to ask am I certain of anything and create a list
of certainty. The reason is because strategy based on uncertainty has high risk. Strategy
based on certainty has low risk and high reward. So we are bombarded with all of this uncertainty.
Create a list of things that you can be absolutely certain about. Lets give you
a technological certainty as a good example. Let’s take the iPhone. How about the
next iPhone? I know we just got our new one but what about the next one? Could you
say anything about that? Do you know anything about that? Hey, no one’s left that in
the bar lately.
And the answer is, you know all about the next iPhone. For example, will it have a
faster processing chip in it than the current one? And the answer is of course it will.
Are you certain? Yeah, been doing that with technology for 40 years; it’s call
Moore’s law. We have 3G wireless now; we're getting 4G wireless. Is that it? Or
might you be able to predict what they’ll call the next one? The answer is, of course;
it'll be 5G, followed by 6G. I’ve been tracking that out for over 30 years.
It’s fully predictable on a curve. You can just see it right there. And can we
get more in that device or is it full? Can’t get anymore? And the answer is of course,
we can store more in that device; it’s on a similar curve to Moore’s law going up
like this. Very predictable. So if you look at all the things that you can be certain
about, you will find amazing possibilities and amazing opportunities as you look at the
future.
Spend an hour a week unplugging from the present. Yeah, why? Because it's more related to
your past than your future. You know there's a reason your windshield is bigger than your
rearview mirror. Hey, let's start looking ahead a little bit. The more you look, the
more you see. The future is more visible than you might expect. Make a list, not
of the things you’re uncertain about, but the things you are certain about. First
of all, the cycles. What are the cycles that we know? What are the cycles, the sales
cycles, the business cycles.
By the way if there’s a sales cycle, hint don’t abide by it. I always go the opposite
of the sale cycle because I want to have the deal closed before the cycle begins, but that
just me. Anyway take a look at the cycles. Make a list of those things. We know when
Father’s Day will be, we know when Christmas will be, we know when the next election will
be. Makes list of all the things that you know and look at the problems and predictable
opportunities.
Secondly, look at the certainties of linear changes. What are those major linear changes
that are taking place right now? And make sure you notice them and pay attention to
them. For example, your main computer is becoming what? It’s your smartphone. And
just recently the Chinese have been able to make a smartphone at the same cost as a dumb
phone. Why would you want to make dumb phones, when a smart phone is Internet, it’s a camera,
it’s photography, it’s television, it’s radio? These are profound linear changes.
Make a list and then look for opportunities and put your business strategy against those
certainty lists and you’ll find low risk and high reward.