早上好 欢迎大家 Okay, good morning, and welcome
到鲍勃·怀特曼的minterventionPrivateaccess培训室希望每个人都有一个愉快的 长长的假期周末 to the m Intervene Private access training room on Bob Whiteman Hope everybody had a nice, long holiday weekend.
如果可以的话 请举手 让我知道你们听得很清楚 If you can, raise your hand letting me know that you're hearing me loud and clear.
我们从这里开始 看来我们还有一些人 也许是在放假的时候来的轻勤 We'll begin started here. Looks like we still have a number of people, perhaps on holiday to the light attendance.
马克·里奇 你也早上好 Uh, mark Ritchie, good morning to you as well.
早上鲍勃 早上马克 如果你能迅速举手让我们知道你听到了他的声音 Morning Bob. Morning Mark. And if you could just quickly raise your hand and let us know you're hearing him loud and clear.
看起来不错 把这个交给马克·贝尼弗开始 And then that looks good. Well, hand this off to Mark Beneve to get started.
大家早上好 希望大家周末愉快 Okay, good morning everyone. Hope everyone have a great weekend.
嗯 在我们开始之前 我想说 如你所见 有几个名字沿着这些轴心点向上移动 Um. So before we start, just want to say, as you can see, a few names then are moving up through these, uh, these pivot points.
当然 E-N的PH是一个更有创意的走出低点 只是试图在这里发挥这种强大的发挥ESC类型的移动 增加位置 并试图进入尽可能接近危险的点 Of course, E-N PH is a more of a creative coming off of the lows here, and just trying to play this power play ESC type move here, adding to the position and trying to get in as close to the danger point as possible.
因为我真的认为现在需要保持低位 Because I really think that this low needs to hold now.
但是这个可以很容易地 很容易地 把这里拧紧 Uh, but this could very easily, um very easily, tighten up here.
暂停一下 因为这里有一些直接的供应 And pause, because it is going into some immediate supply right here.
但是 当它们像这样强大的时候 你可能会问 为什么不等等 你知道 等它收紧 But again, when they're powerful like this, you might ask, well, why not wait, you know, wait for it to tighten up?
好吧 可能不会 你知道 这一开始是相当紧的 我们要从上到下测量它 Well, it might not. You know, this is fairly tight to begin with, and we were to measure this from top to bottom here.
大约是12% 看 已经很紧了 That's about 12 %. So see, it's already very tight.
所以你可能不会在一段时间内真的收紧 或者它可能会上升到原来的高点1 我们可以让我们自己从利润1开始金字塔式地进入这个位置 但在危险点附近玩 So you might not get that really, really tightening a period, or it might run up a bit to the old highs 1st, and we can get ourselves out a little bit of a profit 1ST and start pyramiding into the position, but playing it close to danger point.
我认为这里要记住的主要事情是 你知道 从小的位置开始 I think the main thing to remember here is to, you know, start off with small positions.
事情是这样的 因为有些人可能会问 你知道 你一直在说这里的市场不好 我们进入了一周的时间 我们为什么要买任何东西 And here's the thing, because some people might be asking, well, you know, you've been saying that the market's not doing good here, and we're going into a week period, why would we buy anything?
好吧 你不需要这么做 但是如果你想在这里尝试一些东西 你要尝试一些名字 好吧 我们想尝试一些强大的名字 那些能支撑住的 最好的 最好的枢点和最强大的 Well, you don't have to, but if you're going to try anything here, and you're going to try a few names, well, we want to try the strong names, the ones that are holding up, the best coming through, the best pivot points and the most powerful.
通过在一只非常强大的股票中持有少量头寸 你可以获得低风险 但仍然有良好的回报 因为这是一只可以获得巨大收益的股票 而这少量头寸仍然可以很快成为有意义的股票 And by having a small position in a very powerful stock, you can get the low risk but still have a good reward, because this is a stock that can make a big gain, and that small position could still turn out to be meaningful real quick.
在 EVH 中 这是一个拥有最好的轴的游戏 因为你仍然在挥舞着坐标轴 Just on EVH, this is the one that has pretty much the best a pivot, as far as being that you're still axes screaming.
我很抱歉 我很抱歉 这是对的 我在E-N的整个时间PH都不是活的 I'm sorry, I'm sorry, that's right, that whole time I was E-N PH wasn't alive.
这是 这是定格 It was, it was freeze frame.
但就是这样 嗯 很抱歉 But there you go. Um, sorry about that.
Evh嗯 现在它马上就蹲下来了 Evh Um. Now it's squatting right away.
如果要蹲下去 那怎么办 Uh, if it's going to squat, what?
我们想让它早点蹲下来 What we we want it to squat early day.
这总比晚到好 我们看看能不能 它能不能自己写出来 That's better than late day. Um, well, we'll see if we can, if it can write itself.
而且最好的办法就是在白天的某个时候把这里的毒品抽走然后再穿件好衣服 And And the best action would be for it to take out the highs here sometime during the day and then have a good clothes.
我们会看的 但这可能是我在市场上找到的最好的 或者说在圣诞节 最干净的 在市场上 你找到任何一种紧凑的设置了吗 So we'll watch that. But this is probably the the best, or in Christmas, most crisp set up that I have found in the market, on a market, have you found anything that is any kind of tight set up here?
因为我在这些名字上找不到很多很好的切入点 Because I'm not finding a lot of really great entry points on these names?
不 外面的人真多 No, it's pretty some pickens out there.
我想 我想说 你刚才强调的那两个人 肯定是最好的 也许是最坏的 I would, I would actually say, yeah, the ean, the the two you just highlighted are probably, uh, certainly the best of, maybe the worst.
是的 而且 请记住 有很多储备已经投入基地 特别是在石油领域 Yeah. And, and keep in mind, there's a lot of stocks that have put in bases, especially on the oil area.
我看到很多名字 UM 都有这么大的基数 I see a lot of names, UM, that have these large bases.
杯柄 和作弊错误 Cup of handles. UM And cheat errors.
所以我们可以很快变成 圣经 里的情景 So we could morph into A-A Bible situation pretty quickly.
嗯 我们走着瞧 现在 市场看起来有点不妙 但在所有人都被骗 市场好转之前 它总是看起来不妙 UM So we'll see. Now, the market looks kind of ominous right now, but it always looks ominous before, you know, everybody gets duped, and it turns around.
市场情绪非常悲观 目前市场人气非常悲观 And sentiment is real bearish. Sentiment is very bearish right now.
很多人开始进入复试模式 A lot of people are starting to go, you know, get into the retest mode.
我会在今天晚些时候或明天发布一些相关的消息 谈论 你知道 可能会再次测试低点 I'm going to post something about that the later today or tomorrow, talk about, you know, potential for a retest of the lows.
但我认为 如果我们接近那些低点 熊市就会跳出图表 嗯 我们会重蹈70年代的覆辙 你知道 恶性通货膨胀 或者 你知道 或者是大的 长期的熊市 But I think the bearishness is going to just get off the charts if we get anywhere near those lows, um, and we're going to get all the 1970s, you know, calls for hyper inflation and, or, you know, or big, long bear market.
我觉得 嗯 虽然有 有 我们绝对不会在这里猜测 嗯 我确实认为未来是光明的 在不远的未来 嗯 我很高兴看到我们在这一点上有很多悲观的看法 And I feel like, um, although there's, there's, we're definitely not going to guess here, um, I do think that the future is bright, and the not so distant future, um and and, and I'm, I'm happy to see that we have a lot of bearishness here at this point.
让我们来回答一些问题 So let's get to some questions.
你知道的 保持 保持干爽 You know, keep keep the powder dry.
你知道 这里和那里可能会有一些职位 你知道 小职位 我们实际上 你知道 我们还有 屈指可数的10个左右的职位 呃 保持得不错 You know, few positions may be here and there, you know, small positions we, we still actually have, you know, handful ten or so positions here that, uh, have held up.
这是个好迹象 同时 一套西装 So that's a good sign. Also, a suit.
你们有问题吗 是的 You guys have for questions? Yep.
呃 那么问题来了 最大跌幅超过多少不是回撤买入？ Uh. So question what is the maximum decline beyond?
超越多久回调将不再被认为是回调买入？ Which is a pullback by? Beyond for when a pullback by would no longer be considered a pull back by?
我不确定 你知道 我必须看到一个可能 可能看到的例子 I'm not sure. You know, I have to see a maybe, maybe see an example.
但回撤买入 But pull back
回撤买入我们怎么做 bys, what we do for a pullback, by how we
如何使用回撤买入？就是在基部内， 要么从低位欺骗区域到欺骗区域 要么杯柄处， 要么回撤到突破位 use pullback bys, is in the base, either from the low cheat to cheat, or the handle, or pull back to the breakout.
所以你 你 我猜 问的是 关于回撤，回撤买入你知道 So you're, you're, I guess, asking about the pull back, and the pull back by I mean, you know,
一般来说 我希望它是个位数 很低的两位数 generally speaking, I'd like to see it single digits, very low double digits.
你开始进入 你知道 15% You start getting into, you know, 15 %.
这是 你知道 这是一个基部 你知道 That's, you know, that's a base, you know.
再一次 像这样的东西 这里 回撤 你知道 大约是15% 16% So so, again, like something like this, here, you get this pull back here, you know, that's about 15, 16 %.
我是不会在这里买这个回撤买入 I wouldn't be buying this here on a pullback by right here.
我会的 我是说 你可以 你当然可以 I would. I mean, you could, you certainly could.
是的 它没有规定说 你知道 回撤必须是X百分比 Yeah, it doesn't. There's no rule that says, you know, that the pull back has to be X percentage.
但对我来说 越浅越好 But to me, the the shallower the better.
但在这里 像这样的 你知道 我更倾向于操作回撤买入 But over here, something like this, you know, I'm more inclined to play the pull back.
主要要记住是你希望在右边价格紧凑，我不会过于担心百分比，如果它如果是价格紧凑在右边 你经历了迭代次数收缩 和你有V-C-P呃呃 看它 如果你愿意 那么你将最有可能被交易的相对紧凑价格区域 和你想要这些区域一般在个位数 你知道的 个位数的回调 The main thing to remember is that you want the tighting on the right side, I wouldn't worry too much about the the percentage as much as if it if it's tighting on the right side, and you've gone through a number of iterations, and you've got that B-C-P uh uh, look to it, if you will, then you're going to most likely be trading from relatively tight areas, and and you want to have those areas generally, and in the single digits, you know, single digit, uh, pullbacks.
马克里奇，在这方面你有什么经验吗 I'm remarked. Do you have any, uh, any, any general rules of thumb on that?
是啊 真有趣 我甚至很长一段时间都没有使用回调买入，因为 我可以说回调对我来说是最难弄清楚的 它在什么地方适合 然后呢 Yeah, well, that's funny. I didn't even use the pullback by for a long period of time, because it, I would have said the pullback by was the toughest even for me to really figure out where, where does it fit in context and then?
但是 你知道的 就算是你的常规规则在基部方面 你知道 越紧越好 你知道 越宽松 越不理想 But, yeah, you know, just think of maybe even your normal rules in terms of a base, you know, the tighter the better, uh, you know, the the more wide loose, the less optimal.
而且 你知道 我一直在想 虽然 就这方面来说 是的 可能 你知道 不超过两位数 当然 And, you know, I'm always thinking, though, just in terms of, yeah, probably, you know, no more than double digits, certainly.
但我认为这不仅仅是衡量 But I don't think of it in terms of just measuring in that regard.
我会测量基底， 但我不会测量 比方说 回调 所以我没有一个更好的例子 I would measure the base, but I wouldn't measure, say, the pullback by, so I don't have a be better to look an example.
是啊 我是说 这里有个回撤买入 Yeah, I mean, here's a pull back by right here.
当你回到缺口的时候 让我们在这里测量一下 这样就回撤了 看 这只有8%9% When you come back to the gap, let's measure this down here, so that corrects about See, this only comes in about eight 9 %.
所以这有点 你知道 这有点 呃 比 你知道 我展示的另一个回调 是15% So that's a little bit, you know, that's a little bit, uh uh, a shallower than, you know, that That other pullback that I showed, that was 15 %.
然后 你知道 如果你操作一个回撤买入 如果你想 你知道 设置它 如果市场是在艰难的环境中 你想要 你想试着让它削弱低点 你说它会削弱低 点或者给它一点的空间，如果可以 如果你足够近 让我们说 你知道 这只是几个百分点 也许再几个百分比 让它震荡前低了 而且 你知道 要一天或两天 看看它能不能从那个点回来 And then, you know, if you do play a pool back by this, if you're gonna, you know, set it up, if the market's in a tough environment, you wanna, you wanna try to let it undercut that low, you say it would undercut the low, and maybe give it a little bit of room if you can, if, if, if you're close enough, and lets us say, you know, this is only a couple percent, maybe give it another couple percent and let it shake that low out, and, you know, for a day or two, and see if it can come right back from that point.
因为那将是一个非常明显的停损 Because that'll be a very obvious uh stop.
现在 如果市场表现比这些好 这些明显的水平通常不会被突破 Now, if the market's acting great than those, those really ob those obvious levels usually don't get breached.
但在一个艰难的市场 他们一直在跌破前低 你会受到一些打击 But in a tough market, they they undercut all the time, and you get whipped around a bit.
托马斯在问 在你成功交易之前 马克 你想把房子想象成什么 Thomas is asking, before you found success in trading, mark, what were you visualizing the house?
一辆车 你的账户里有多少钱 A car, certain dollar amount in your account?
你知道 我刚开始工作的时候 很早的时候 我是一个音乐家 Well, you know, when I 1st started, early on, I was a musician.
我六岁就开始打鼓了 I started playing drums when I was only six years old.
在学校的乐队里演奏 然后很早就组建了乐队 出了张唱片 我16岁的时候 我父亲是我的经纪人 Played in school in the school band, and then had a band very early, made a record, uh, when I was 16 years old, my father was my manager.
我退学了 所以我一直梦想着成功 I quit school, so I had, I always had, you know, like dreams of like, being successful.
我只是 我当时想成为一个 你知道 一个摇滚明星 I just, I wanted to be a, you know, a rock star at the time.
事实上 我的音乐 我的音乐事业 发展得非常非常好 And my, actually, my music, music career, took off quite, quite nicely.
我有一个很好的机会去做这件事 And I had a great chance to do that.
我发现我不认为对一个鼓手来说有那么多钱 我想 我想变得富有 所以 嗯 我现在仍然在打鼓 并且很享受 This I found that I didn't think the money was there for the for a drummer, and I wanted, and I wanted to be rich, so, um, I still play drums of this day and enjoy it.
然后我也进入了音乐行业 我有录音室 并且做得很好 I also, then I went into the music business, and I had recording studios, and did very well with that too.
当我最终百分之百地转投股票时 我卖掉了我的录音棚 拿走了所有剩下的收益 用剩下的30338美元还清了所有的账单 我把它存入一个账户 这个账户涨了3600% And when I finally made the shift a hundred percent to stocks, I just sold my recording studio, took all the proceeds that were left over, paid off all my bills at $30338 left, and I put it into an account, and that's the account that went up 36000 %.
杰克·斯威格在九十年代就开始研究和审计了 And Jack Swagger got to look at and audit back in the nineties.
嗯 所以 嗯 你知道 我在想象 是的 我今天在想象的东西 只是今天 它们更贵了 Um, so, um, you know, I was visualizing, yeah, the same things I'm visualizing today, only today, they're just more expensive.
量 这是唯一的区别 The amount. That's, that's only difference.
好了 我希望你们周末有空 顺便说一下 我最初的目标是每周赚500美元 All right, I hope you'll have occurred weekend, by the way, guys, my original goal was to make $500 a week.
这是我的长远目标 That was my big, long term goal.
当我刚开始的时候 当我开始只有几千美元的时候 When I 1st started, when I started with just a few thousand dollars.
在出售工作室之前 我已经在这个市场上呆了10年 一开始只有几千美元 Prior to putting that, selling that studio, I was already in the market for about ten years, and started with just a few thousand dollars.
所以 嗯 只是想让你们知道 嗯 下一个问题 非常漂亮 So, um, so just to let you know, um, the next question on here, pretty nicely.
表现很好 涨了6% Um, it's acting really well, up 6% here.
这正是我们想看到的 This is exactly what we want to see.
把它开到右边 越远越好 Have it run right up this right side, as far as much as we can.
这里有更多 他越接近供应越好 只要能维持下去 More this gets up here. He gets closer to to supply, the better as long as it can hold.
然后拉回来 你知道 我们可能可以承受拉回 我仍然拉回那里 进入范围内 一个非常大的范围 但给它一些空间 仍然非常正常的行动 And then a pull back. You know, we could probably withstand a pull back, and I still pull back in there, go inside the range with a nice wide range, but give it some room to still act very normally.
但继续 抱歉 这有点假设 但试着理解一下短线交易 他的想法是快速卖出以倍数的风险获得强势 But go ahead. I'm sorry, a little bit of a hypothetical, but trying to understand on the short term trading, he gets the idea of selling quickly into strength at a multiple of your risk.
他不知道该从哪里开始 He's having a hard time to figure out where to place his initial stop.
如果有任何方法 举一两个例子 他会问 嗯 这是 你知道 这是一个技巧 你知道 如果你想快速卖出如果利润非常小 你会收回这些利润 但你不能使用摆止点 If there's any way, to give an example or two, he's asking, well, that well, that's the, you know, that's the, the trick, you know, is to like, if you're gonna sell quickly and you're going to take those profits if those profits are really small, but you can't use the swing stops.
这就是为什么我们会在每周开始的时候 用红色的小纸条 告诉大家停站是不合适的 And that's why we post that little note, you know, in the beginning of each week in red that talks about how the stops may not be appropriate.
你知道 摇摆停摆不太合适如果你是在白天 You know, swing stops are not going to be appropriate if you're going in for day.
所以你可以 你知道 你可以试着两者兼顾 So you can, you can try to, you know, do both.
这就是我所做的 基本上 我去那里 如果我想为我的风险筹集资金 那么 你知道 我的第一站将会 会变得更紧 And, well, that's what I do, basically, I go in there, and if I'm trying to finance my risk, then, you know, my initial stop is gonna be, it's gonna be tighter.
我可能会利用今天的低潮 You know, I might use the day's low.
我的意思是 有时候我去那里 我只有 我只有一美元 你知道 我要买5000股 我愿意冒一个点的风险 I mean, sometimes I go in there and I just, I have, I have just a dollar amount, you know, I'm gonna I buy 5000 shares, and I'm willing to risk one point.
五千 就这么多 It's five grand, and that's it.
你知道 有时它是 它是底部的低 就在这里 You know, sometimes it's, it's the, it's the low in the in the base here, like right here.
这是一个非常合理的地方 大约6%左右的距离 This is a, you know, a very logical place, about 6% or so away.
这并不是太冒险 It's not too excessive of risk.
但是 当然 关于你你留下的那部分你在那部分上有更大的动作 But then, of course, on the part that you that you keep and you're playing for bigger move on that part.
那部分交易 你可以用更大的止损点 And that portion of the trade, um, you could use the larger stop.
希望你能在短期交易中赚到一些利润 这为你提供了资金 Hopefully you make some profits on that short term trade, and that finances that.
现在 记住 你知道 为你的站点融资 Now, keep in mind, you know, financing your stops.
我的意思是 你可以一直这么做 如果你想要安全 而且是真正安全的赌注 即使是在一个好的市场 你也可以这么做 I mean, you could do this all the time, if you want to play it safe, and play the real safe bet, even in a good market, you can do this.
如果你这样做 如果你做得有效 它会变得平滑 And this is gonna if you do, if you do it effectively, it's gonna smooth out.
你的股权限制肯定会减少 除非你在短期交易中损失惨重 Your equity curb is certainly gonna have um less draw down, unless you get chopped up on the short term trading um.
这是你需要保持一致的东西 如果它不起作用 就退出 但当事情真的很好 你知道 那就是你想要真正留在那里 保持 看着金字塔 买更多 And that's something you just got to stay in tune with, and if it's not working, back away from But when things are working really good, you know, that's when you want to actually stay in there and hold and look to look the pyramid and buy more.
所以这不是你想要一直做的事情 除非 就像我说的 除非你想要极端保守 So this isn't something that you know, you want to be doing all the time, unless, like I said, unless you want to be ultra conservative.
约瑟夫问的是 在这个环境下 你需要什么 Um Joseph is asking, where are your short in this environment?
你在哪里 你在哪里做短线交易 Where are you? Where you are short term trading?
打扰一下 你愿意以1个H的风险卖出一半的融资 而必须持有3个H的更大收益吗 Excuse me. Would you prefer to sell half the finance, the risk at 1 H, and have to hold for larger gain of 3 H?
或者坚持两个小时 在整个位置保持平衡 一旦你达到这个目标 我有点困惑 Or hold for a two hour and backstop the whole position at break even once you achieve that that one are I'm a little confused.
也许我没有认真听 但如果你想让目标总利润等于风险的两倍 Maybe I didn't listen carefully, but if you're trying, if you're trying to get your objective total profit to be equal to two times to risk.
他的意思是 你要么卖一个R 然后利润下降 He's saying you either would sell it one R all right, and and have have the profit taken off.
但这意味着你必须坚持3h才能得到2h的平均值这是你的目标 假设这是你的目标 或者你是等着得到2h 去掉一半 移动止损点来平衡 But then that means you have to hold to 3 H in order to get the average of 2 H your objective, assuming that is your objective, or do you wait to get the 2 H, take half off and move your stop to break even?
在吗 因为你已经锁定了 There? for you're locking in already.
无论如何 他们俩都是游戏 That two are game no matter what.
首先 这是一个价值64000美元的问题 Well, 1st of all, this is the $64000 question.
我是说 多久 你有多少钱 I mean, how long? How much do you hold for?
而且 你知道 销售在利润方面总是比较困难在法律方面 你会 你会在沙子上划一条线 就是这样 And, you know, selling is always more difficult on the profit side the law side, you'll, you know, you draw a line in the sand, and that's it.
那时你就出局了 好的一面总是最难的部分 You're out at that point. Um, the upside is always the hard part.
嗯 所以问题是 你不能固执地说 因为我的手腕是X 或者因为我的位置大小是X 我必须为这个数字保持 你知道吗 Um. So the thing is, though, you can't just stubbornly dig in and say, you know, because I wrist X, or because I position sized X that I have to hold for this number, you know?
和两个r相对的是持有4个H 你知道 如果你的股票遇到了麻烦 我的意思是 不 你必须每天阅读股票并做出决定 And, and, as opposed to the two rs are holding for 4 H Well, you know, if you're the stock's getting in trouble, I mean, no that you have to read the stock each day and and make that decision.
不 是和股票的表现有关 No, in connection with how the stock's acting.
我是说 马克 让我来问你个问题 I mean, mark, let me, let me ask you this question.
我也想问你一个问题 You know, let me pose this question to you too.
你会怎么处理这种情况 How would you, you know, how do you handle that?
你把风险保持在很低的水平 你会怎么回应 You you keep the risk very low to, um, how would you respond to that?
通常情况下 我会说 你知道 你知道 你必须交易活的动物 你明白我的意思吗 Normally, I would say, you know, to your point about, you know, you gotta sort of the trades alive animal, you know what I mean?
这不是 这不是 你总是可以百分之百的科学 但是考虑到以一种方式销售 我通常不想把它变成力量 这意味着我会把它作为一种 你知道的 风险保护的形式 It it's not, it's not, you can always be a hundred percent scientific, but in thinking in terms of selling at one r say, I don't usually want to ever do that into strength, meaning I would do that as a, you know, form of risk protection.
或者交易失败了 也许市场对我不利 我承担了太多风险 Or the trade is souring, maybe the market is turning on me and I'm carrying too much risk.
但在所有条件相同的情况下 如果我买了股票 对吧 But all things being equal, if I buy the stock, right?
我不只是想 以平均风险来获利 就像我的第一条规则 因为我想 这就是我想要的倍数 I'm not just looking this to, you know, take profits at at an average of my risk, just almost like a 1st rule for me, because I want, that's what I'm looking to get multiples on.
所以你必须从贸易的角度来考虑 我会说 看 如果你如果你想更快地获利 So you sort of have to think of it in terms of trade by trade, I would say, look, if you if you want to take quicker profits,
然后寻找更紧的止损点 仍然寻找止损点的倍数 而不是仅仅与之前的问题有关 你说 如果你想做太短的交易 你不应该使用波动止损点 then look for even tighter stops, and still look for a multiple of that stop, rather than in just related to the previous question, where you were saying, well, look, if you're using, you know, want to be too short term trading, you shouldn't be using the swing stops.
在我们所处的环境中 要么少做 要么非常耐心 多做短期交易 Well, if if in the environment we've been in, look it's either been do less, or in terms of be very patient, set out more or do a lot more shorter term trading.
他们是你的两种选择 Those are kind of men your two options.
这是我的建议 如果你想获得更快的利润 寻找更严格的止损 That would be my recommendation. If you want to take quicker profits, look for even tighter stops.
让我给你一个更具体的答案 Let me give you a more specific answer.
所以 你知道 对我来说 我看的是相反的东西 So, you know, with me, I kind of look at at the opposite of that.
我所做的是 在短期交易中尽可能多地获利 你知道 进入我的圈子 不管怎样 我是如何在我自己的 你知道 个人的 容忍范围内进行交易的 What I do, I try to get as much as I can out of a trade short term, you know, enter me, the term, whatever, how I'm trading within the confines of my own uh, you know, uh, personal uh, tolerances.
我测量了一下 你知道 我看到 我得到了什么好处 And I measured that, you know, and I see, what am I getting on the upside?
然后我根据这种想法来设定风险 And then I set the risk according to that thinking.
这种想法 我必须持有X的数量 是有点相反的 The thinking, I gotta hold it for X amount, is sort of the opposite.
你在承担风险 你会说 我得说 我不能控制好的方面 但我可以控制不好的方面 You're taking the risk, and you're saying, well, I gotta say, I don't control the upside, so, but I could do control the downside.
所以我想看的是 我想我的收获有点像一辆速度车 你知道 就像在一场比赛中 他们在前面有标志 然后绕着速度车跑 对吧 So what I'm trying to gaze, I think of my gains as sort of like a pace car, you know, like in a race where they have the the carlets in front and goes around at the pace car, right?
所有人都留在后面 我知道 我让我的收益成为我的起跑器 然后跟随着我的损失保持一定的距离 Everybody stays behind it. I does, I-I let my gains be the pacecar, and I follow that a certain distance with my losses.
随着起搏器的变化 随着平均收益的变化 我开始我的我的损失是 And as that pacecar changes, as that average gain shifts, I-I start shifting my my loss is.
看来你说的有点反了 So it seems like what you're saying is a bit backwards.
我知道很多人说他们一直在问这个问题 你知道 嗯 他们去那里 他们的风险 X量 我 I know a lot of people say they ask this question all the time, you know, um, they go in there, their risk, X amount, me.
所以我不能以 你知道 1r是2倍 So I can't sell at, you know, one R has got to be two times.
但我要做的是你短期交易的平均收益是多少 But what I would do is just what is your average gain on your short term trades?
你的长期投资 中期投资的平均收益是多少 What's your average gain on your longer term, your your intermediate term?
然后根据这个设定你的站数 And then from there set your stops based on that.
一般来说 这并不意味着每一站都要排队 On average, it doesn't doesn't mean every stop has to be, there has to be a line.
你有8%的平均利润并不意味着油停是4% This in you have an average profit of 8% doesn't mean that oil stops are 4 %.
好的 这意味着你需要取平均值 All right. It means that you need to average that.
如果你的平均收益是8% 你需要平均 If you're average 8% on your gains, need to average.
现在你的平均损失可以达到7% Now you can average 7% on your losses.
如果你的营业额足够高 1%的优势就能让你赚到钱 前提是你的营业额足够多 If you do enough turnover, a 1% edge will make you'll make money if you can turn turn it over enough times.
你还得决定你的营业额是多少 你的击球率是多少 So it has You also have to decide how much turn over there is and what your batting average is.
如果你的击球率很高 如果是80%的击球率 那么 你可以你可以有一个反向的风险回报关系 你的 你的回报小于你的风险如果你的击球率很高 所有这些都要一起衡量 So if you have a high batting average, if it's your 80% batting average, well, then again, you can you can have an inverse risk reward relationship, where your your, uh, your reward is less than your risk and and if you have a super high batting average, so it all has to be measured together.
这就是为什么我们有计算器 基于假设预测的结果等等 That's why we have the calculators, result based assumption forecasts and so forth.
当你进行交易时 你应该把这些数字扔进我们所说的漏斗中 然后看看 你知道 这需要什么 And as you're moving along and trading, you should be throwing those numbers in what we call the hopper, and take a look at, you know, what it would take.
如果你改变这些数字 你就能看到它对你的表现的影响 And if you shift those numbers around, you can see the effect that it's gonna have, you know, on your performance.
但我要偷活的动物 But I am gonna steal live animal.
这些股票是活的动物 我喜欢这个标记 The stocks are live animals. I love that mark.
我要用 我肯定会用 我今天可能会发推特 但这是真的 I'm going to use, I'm definitely going to use, I might tweet that today, but that is so true.
你知道 我总是说 这些喜欢信任的人 我看到 就在前几天 我看到一个女人 她坐在一个笼子里 里面有大猩猩 没有任何保护 就在笼子的正中央 You know, I always say, these people who like trust, and I just saw, just the other day, I saw this woman, she was sitting in a cage with tooth silver back gorillas, and with like, no protection, like right in the middle of the cage.
它是开着的 在Facebook之类的网站上 It was on, it was on Facebook or something.
我当时就想 哇 你知道 这是多么冒险啊 And I was just like, wow, you know, that is, man, how risky that is.
我是说 如果那只大猩猩想的话可以抓住她 把她的头拧下来 I mean, if that gorilla wants to could just grab her and just snap her head right off.
和一个分裂 第二 你知道 他们是如此的强大 And one split. 2nd, you know, they're so powerful.
所以 我的意思是 这是一个完美的比喻 就像股票一样 不管它们有多好或安全 它们就像活的动物 你知道 它们可以 就像一条蛇 你可以随时打开它咬你 你必须那样对待它们 So, I mean, that's a perfect metaphor, or analogy as that stocks, no matter how good or safe they are, these are like live animals, You know, they can, it's like a snake you just turn on and bite you at any moment, you know, and and and you gotta treat them that way.
你必须一直把这些情况当作 你知道 它们是危险的动物 You have to always treat these situations like, you know, they're, they're dangerous live animals.
好吧 蒂莫西在问他今年只买了一支国会议员的股票 Okay, timothy is asking he's only bought one MP stock this year.
他的胜率很低 只有8% His win rate is very low, at 8 %.
所有M-P-A的胜率是多少 What is the win rate of all M-P-A Um?
我今年下跌了2 4% 直到 你知道的 空中市场 Well, I'm down 2.4% of the year, until the, you know, air market.
这没什么好羞愧的 That's nothing to be too ashamed of.
不 不 这其实很好 No, no, that's actually pretty good.
我的意思是 风速 你知道 显然是非常 非常低的 但这就是为什么我们一直说 你知道 你想要有现金或非常 呃 轻投资 I mean, the wind rate, you know, is obviously very, very low, but that's why we've been, you know, saying that you want to have cash or be very, uh, lightly invested.
因此我们预计 在裸市期间 多头市场的风速将接近夏季的25%至35% So we expect, during a bare market, we expect the wind rate on the longs to be summer neighbor of 25 to 35 %.
你知道 这是非常低的 So that's, you know, exceptionally low.
但如果你管理风险得当 降低风险敞口 你就能维持 你就能在相当长一段时间内 在大量交易中经受住这种打击 But if you manage the risk properly, and you keep your exposure down, you can maintain, you can weather that type of batting average for a good number of trades, you know, a quite a period, and
不会有两位数的亏损 not suffer even double digit, uh drawdowns.
但是 你必须遵守纪律 你必须保持那些职位 呃 很小 直到事情开始好转 But yeah, again, you gotta be disciplined, and you gotta keep those positions, uh, small, until things start working.
听起来你做得很有效 It sounds like you're doing that effectively.
他不停地问 洗牌是由机构造成的 还是由恐慌的散户造成的 A kush of his asking if shakeouts, are they created by institutions or by panicky retail investors?
他还问 你什么时候出新书 And and he's also asking, when is a new book do out from you?
是的 我喝了一些 Yeah, I had A-I had some.
我太忙了 不得不请假 I've been so busy that I had to take time off.
我只剩一章了 I only have one chapter left.
我一口气读完了 一口气读完了七章 And I blew through, I blew through seven chapters in no time.
现在这一章已经被永远占用了 因为我还没时间 And now the one chapter's taken for ever, because I just haven't had the time.
所以我必须完成它 然后它必须投入生产 So I've got to finish it up, and then it has to go into production.
所以还需要几个月的时间 So it's still a number of months away.
这可能要等到明年年初 但我们拭目以待 It may not be till early next year, but we'll see.
我本来打算今年年底拿到的 但可能要到明年年初 I was gonna try to get it by the end of this year, but probably not till early next year.
但是 我在努力挤出时间来做这件事 But, well, I'm trying to get the time to, or make the time to do that.
嗯 我是说 洗牌 你知道 你知道 最终 洗牌的整个定义就是你已经精疲力竭了 Um, I mean, shake out, you know, you know, ultimately, the whole definition of a shakeout is that you've exhausted.
你已经卖完了 根据定义 机构或卖家都走了 然后买家进来 You've exhausted the selling. So when you so, so by definition, the institutions, or the sellers have, are are gone, and then the buyers come in.
嗯 所以一般来说 更多的是把最后的散户撤出来 然后机构资金进入 Um. And so generally speaking, it it's more of getting the last retail names out, and then the institutional money comes in.
因为当你有一个抖出来 你想看到它恢复得非常快 Because when you have a shake out, you want to see it recover very quickly.
这就是你如何知道它是摇出来的 That's sort of how you know it's a shake out.
它拿出一个低点 然后它回来 非常快 就像当你真正跨界 It takes out a low, and then it comes ripping back very fast, just like when you get heartily crossover.
当股价下跌时 你会得到一些散户资金 可能会把股票卖出去 When it undercuts, you get some retail money, maybe breaks the stock out.
机构卖出它 进来 崩溃 压低低点 现在你已经摆脱了噪音 Institutions sell into it, comes in, collapses, undercuts the low, and now you've shaken out that noise.
然后现在机构 或者更大的买家 开始购买它 然后繁荣 它迅速发展起来 And then now institutions, or bigger buyers, you know, start buying it, and boom, it takes off real fast.
所以我想说 两者都有 So I would say, you know, it's, it's both.
他们都在其中扮演着重要的角色 It's they both play a role in it.
所以在交易的每个特定时间点 每只股票都有散户和专业投资者的投资 So there's always, you know, going to be retail and and and professional money in every stock at pretty much every given time point in the trading.
所以所有的因素都在其中发挥作用 但这两者之间的平衡才是我们想要确定的 So everything plays a role in it, but it's the balance between the two that is what we were looking for to ascertain.
乔问在 市场奇才 这本书里 你提到每天工作14小时 Um, joe is asking In the market Wizard book, you mentioned working 14 hour days.
我发现这么长时间都很难集中注意力 I find it hard to focus for so long.
我想知道你是如何有效地安排你的一天的 I wonder how did you schedule your day effectively?
是啊 我不知道 我不能再那样做了 这是肯定的 Yeah, well, I don't. I can't do that anymore, that's for sure.
我还有妻子和孩子 And I have a wife and a child.
所以我的生活肯定和以前不一样了 And so my life is definitely different than it was back then.
但那时候 我只是夜以继日地工作 But back then, that's I just worked around the clock.
我是说 我不知道我是怎么做到的 I mean, I-I don't, I have no idea how I did it.
我已经57岁了 我甚至无法理解我的精力 I had energy that as at 57 years old, I can't even comprehend.
但你知道的 我今天已经安排好了 But you know, my day was scheduled.
我来告诉你是怎么安排的 I'll tell you how it was scheduled.
股票 股票 股票 计划就是这样的 Stocks, stocks. Stocks. That's how it was scheduled.
我早上醒来 呼吸 吃股票 I woke up in the morning, I breathe and ate Stocks.
我整个下午 训练结束后我就开始交易 我去健身房 回来后整晚炒股 筛选 I all afternoon. I traded right after the training day, I-I go to the gym, I come back and I stocks all night, screening.
我是说 这就是我所做的一切 一天24小时 好像 I mean, that's all I did, 24 h a day, it seemed like.
整个圣诞节我都在工作 And I would work through Christmas.
我是说 节假日每天都不重要 我一直在工作 I mean, it didn't matter every day holidays, I always worked.
所以我才订了三次婚都没结过婚 That's why I was engaged three times and never got married.
因为我的 我的未婚夫总是说我爱 我爱我的生意胜过我爱他们 Because my, my fiance's always said that I loved, I loved my business more than I did them.
但后来 当然 情况发生了变化现在 你知道 我幸福地结婚很久很久了 这种平衡终于达到了一个点 在N-U-V-L的库存中更健康 But then, of course, that shifted, and and now, you know, I'm happily married for a long, long time, and and that balance has finally gotten to a point where it's more, it's healthier on N-U-V-L stockers.
呃 powerpoint的特点 他问的主要问题是在18美元处看到阻力线了吗 Uh, powerpoint characteristics. And you the l main question he's asking is, um sees a line of resistance at $18?
如果是这样的话 他是在问 你是否也会同意 而他的菲利普 很明显 很少起作用 If that, he's asking, if that's, uh, what you would also agree with, and his philip is, uh, what's obvious, rarely works.
但是 为什么不让每个人都在这个领域购买产品的枢轴呢 But why shouldn't a pivot that's obviously everyone work even better, because everyone is buying in that area?
首先 如果你认为每个人都在使用这类技巧 那么你就有很多需要学习的 你知道 大众心理学 Well, 1st of all, if you think everyone is using these type of techniques, then you've got a lot to learn about, you know, crowd psychology.
我可以向你保证 你知道 好像你认识的每个人 因为可能在论坛里 你在推特上关注的人 你读的书 嗯 都是 你知道 这是很明显的 但有多少人真的在新的高点买东西 I can assure you that, you know, it seems like everyone you know, because maybe in the forums, the people you follow on Twitter, the books you read, um, are all, you know, this is very obvious, but the how many people actually buy at new highs?
你会买一只几周或几个月就涨了一倍的股票吗 And would buy a stock that just went up a hundred percent in a couple weeks or a couple months?
这仅仅是一部分 它是 它是在一个 你知道 在个位数百分比 It's like a mere fraction. It's, it's in the, it's in the one, you know, in the single digit percentage.
所以 你可能会问 让股票上涨的因素中 机构 So, um, you know, you may ask, well, within what makes a stock go up, institutions, um.
所以 你知道 大买家的数量较少 So, you know, a smaller amount of big buyers.
但就我的意思而言 这支股票看起来很不错 你知道 它是 But as far as I mean, this stock is concerned, um, this looks pretty good, you know, it's,
它的相对强度达到了95度 it's definitely, it's got a 95 relative strength.
所以 权力游戏 你知道 我真的 你知道 叫它权力玩家 高类型的旗帜 So, power plays, you know, I-I to really, you know, call it a power player, a high type flag.
我要求有97或更好的相对强度 I required to have a 97 or better relative strength.
这一直是我的角色 以前是9998 That's always been my role. It used to be 9998.
我一度下降 但这个上升了百分之一百六十 I dropped at one point, um, but this went up about a hundred and 60 %.
这里有一个很好的形成空间 It's got a nice space of forming here.
如果这条线再收紧一点 在18的上方 如果你画一条线 你知道 让我把通行费画在这里 就在1805层 And if this tightens up a bit more, yeah, right above that 18 again, if you just draw a line, you know, through, let me just get my drawing toll here, right through here, at that 18, 1805 level.
现在你的补给差不多都在这里了 Now you pretty much have all your supply right there.
它已经被这个关卡拒之门外好几次了 It's been turned away from that level a whole bunch of times.
一 二 三 四 五 六 不 七 八次 One, two, three, four, five, six, no, seven, eight times from that level.
所以当它在上面收紧 体积变干 现在你看到200天它在下降趋势 So as it tightens up there, and the volume dries up, now you see the 200 day see it's going in a down tren.
这是一个几乎不锋利的下降trenn It's a barely sharp down tren.
所以 这就是我所说的角度警告 现在 随着权力的发挥 你不需要有国家 谁 呃 上升趋势到位 So you have, this is what I call an angle warning, where now, with the power plays, um, you don't have to have the state, who, uh, up trend in place.
你不需要确认它可以在曲调之上 只是一小段很短的时间 You don't have to have a confirmed It could be above the tune, just for A-A little bit of short period of time.
但是 因为这里的产量下降了很多 而且距离这200天也没多久 所以这里有很多供应 But it again, because it had such a big decline here, and it's not that far away you're picking it up in this 200 day, so you do have a lot of supply here.
这个弄掉了 你已经超过80%了 This came off, uh, you're over 80 %.
这有点可疑 因为价格更低 So this is a little bit suspect, you know, it's a lower price.
在每天200个下跌趋势中 它有一个巨大的下跌 It had a huge decline any of the 200 a day in a down trend.
所以我会考虑这个 也许 你知道 交易它 但作为一个可能上涨的交易 我不可能只是卖出到强势 So I would look at this, maybe, you know, trading it, but as of as probably a trade that runs up, I not probably just sell round to strength.
但留意一下还是很有趣的 But it be interesting to keep an eye on.
看这个 丹在问你是否根据这五个月的趋势做了大部分的筛选标记然后 And watch this one. Dan is asking If you do most of your screening mark from the intervening five month trend wide, uh And.
他试图理解一个月列表和五个月列表之间的区别 And he's trying to understand the difference between the one month and the five month lists.
所有的工作都是在一个月内完成的 它只要求股票只处于上升趋势 200天 只处于上升趋势30天 All the work is spent the one month is it just requires that the stocks are only in an up trend, the 200 days, only in an uptread for 30 days.
事实上 我今天早上刚做了报告 所以你不需要 你不需要在四个月左右的时间里完成200天的工作 So, as a matter of fact, I just ran it this morning, um, so you don't, you're not required to have the 200 day up for four months or so.
所以这不是一个确定的阶段鞋 为了让它得到确认 你必须在一段时间内保持上升趋势 So it's not a confirmed stage shoe uptren In order to get it confirmed, you gotta have the up trend in place for a little while.
所以我通常会要求股票在200以上 200天在nuptren4到5个月 So I would general, I would generally require the stock to be above the 200 and the 200 day to be in Nuptren for four or five months.
我的大部分交易都是在那里进行的 That's where the majority of my trades are going to take place.
但是权力游戏 这些高度紧密的旗帜 它们可以从休眠或衰退的时期非常快地上升 然后它们就在金枪鱼之上 或者金枪鱼没有机会熬夜或者在上升轨道上停留那么长时间 But power plays, these high tight flags, they could run up really quickly from a period of dormacy or decline, and then they just get above the tuna, or the tuna that doesn't get a chance, um to stay up for that or or to stay in an uptrain for that long.
这些就是这个规则的警告 So those are the ones that are the caveat to that rule.
但是 当你习惯了像这样的下降趋势 你知道的 这可能是这样的 But again, when you're in a habit in a down trend like this, this might that, you know this, This might look like.
它有资格在早期转向 但你仍然 长期趋势是下降的 这必须考虑到这次大的下降 It qualifies for an early turn, but you still, the longer term trend is down, and that has to be put into perspective with this big decline.
所以现在不同的是 就宽度而言 宽度起飞 相对强度切断 So the difference is that now, as far as the wide is concerned, the wide um takes off, the relative strength cut off.
这样你就可以把你自己的拉尔夫·Is的力量数放进去了 So then you could put your own ralph Is strength number in there.
如果你想把趋势模板应用到 价值型股票上 或者更低的R-S型股票上 If you want to apply the trend template to, say, um value stocks, you know, lower or or lower, uh, R-S stocks.
你可以在市场上做5个月 You can then do that the the five months in market.
我认为 史密斯在70岁的时候拥有相对的实力 Smith has a relative strength cut off, I think, at 70.
但你的问题是 什么冰淇淋 But my, my, your question was, what ice cream?
我的意思是 我检查的主要内容是 在5个月内 你知道 4到5个月 I mean, the majority of my screen is gonna is, screening is going to be, um, in the five, you know, four to five months.
只有一个月的时间 你知道 寻找权力游戏之类的 And the one month only, you know, looking for the power plays and and things like that.
没关系 汤姆之前问过 你在你的太阳屋顶上放了1200个小时的账单 That's all right. Uh, tom is asking a while back, you put twelve hundred hour bills at your sun roof.
现在回想起来 你有什么感觉 As you look back on that, how do you feel about it now?
我不知道 我对它有任何感觉 I don't know, I feel feel anything about it.
我不知道这是什么问题 I don't know what kind of question that is.
我感觉很好 And I feel wonderful about it.
我希望有更多的人这样做 I wish more people did it.
我希望我能把10000人扔出窗外 更多的人这样做了 I wish I were to throw 10000 out the window, and more people did do it.
实际上 世界各地有成百上千的人在做这件事 但对我来说幸运的是 他们在我把1200块硬币扔出窗外之后做了这件事 Actually, they hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people did it from all around the world, but fortunately for me, they did it after I threw the twelve hundred out the window.
所以那个周末我只被 大概十二个人搞砸了 我猜是吧 或者 我猜我答应给每个人做一百美元的造型 我不记得了 但是 在那之后 So I only got mashed over that weekend by, like, twelve people, I guess it was, or, I guess the looks that I promised I'd do a hundred dollars for every person, I can't remember, but, um, but then after that,
你知道 我有那么多的粉丝 嗯 你知道 有可能 你知道 他们会让我破产 但是 嗯 但我很确定 不会有成千上万的人做这件事 you know, with how many followers I-I had, um, you know, there was a chance that, you know, they could have put me broke, but, uh, but I was pretty sure that it was, there wasn't going to be tens of thousands of people had did it.
嗯 查尔斯问了两个简单的问题 Um. Charles is asking two quick questions.
他今年下跌了10% 呃 He's down 10% this year. Uh?
它使用的市场史密斯交易有点延迟 It's using market smith trade a little delayed.
所以你认为用它和经纪人一起交易可以吗 So do you think it's okay to use it along with a broker to trade?
谢谢你 做得不多 Thank you. Not a lot made.
我不确定这是否意味着圣 I'm not sure if that means he St.
带图表的标记延迟较低 你认为这可以使用吗 Marks with charts are low delayed, and do you think that's okay to use?
我不使用Marketsmiths来绘制入市日 I don't use Marketsmiths for charting entry day.
我用它来筛选和产生我的想法 I use it for screening and and and getting my idea generation.
然后我用 我用一个E信号乘积 这是我们现在正在看的 它也有你可以放你的符号的地方 你得到你的p 得到所有这些 And then I use, I use an E signal product, which is we're looking at right now, which also on it has where you can put all your your symbols, and you get your p and get all that.
每只股票的涨跌比例是多少 Um, each individual stock, what percentage is, up and down.
你可以在里面写笔记 新闻计数 诸如此类 You can write notes in there, um, news count, all those things.
这是所有集成 所以如果我点击一个符号 我点击它 我会看到我全年所有的图表更新 只看到一个图表 但所有的图表都在这个屏幕上更新 That's all integrated. So if I just click on a symbol, I click on it, I'll see all my charts update on the whole year, only seeing one chart, but all the charts update on this screen.
这里有很多很酷的工具 There's a lot of really cool tools here.
很多人总是问测量工具 这里的测量工具 这是我一直在用的一种或另一种形式 A lot of people always ask about the measuring tool, that measuring tools on here, so there's just, this is something I've been using for in one form or another.
在我用它之前 我用的是quote com 他们买的 quote com 我更喜欢这个 Before I used it, I was using quote dot com, which they bought, quote dot com, which I liked better.
但这是最接近的了 Um, but this is the next closest thing.
好吧 你用什么 All right, um, what do you use?
马克吗 我都不知道 你对吗 Mark? I don't even know. Are you for?
你不用单人间吗 亲爱的 You don't use a single, dear?
我不 实际上 不 我用的是 对 贸易站 I don't, actually, no, I use, yeah, trade station.
我在另一台电脑上也有贸易站 不过我的使用方式有点不同 I have trade station also on another, on another computer, so, but I use it a little differently.
这是我的订单项 是的 我也会去火车站 That's my order entry. Yeah, I use train station as well.
尼尔问 在之前九个你经历过的备用市场的最后 有没有任何一个事件或牛在每一个市场的最后标志着新的牛市的开始 Neil is asking at the end of the nine previous spare markets that you've been exp uh, that you've been living through, was there any single event or cattles at the end of each one that marked the start of the new bull market?
比如 如果我们得到了不错的通胀数据 我就会把它踢开 Like, e.g., if we got good inflation numbers, I kicked it off.
出于好奇 你还记得之前备用市场结束时的情况吗 And in out of curiosity, do you remember something like that for the end of previous spare markets?
这标志着大规模屠杀的开始吗 That marked the start of the bullmark?
是的 是的 我是说 通常开始 最开始 发生在事情看起来很糟糕的时候 消息不是很好 每个人都在呼唤世界末日 Yeah, yeah. I mean, usually the start, the very start, happens when things look very grim, and the news isn't that great, um, and everybody's calling for the end of the world.
所以大熊市 我经历过的所有大熊市 当你进入低谷 开始起飞 通常当很多领导人退出时 每个人仍然非常悲观 当你达到最悲观的时候 嗯 你知道 这是我记得最清楚的 So the big bear markets, all the big bear markets that I went through, when you made the low and started taking off, and and very often when a lot of the leaders were moving out, everybody was still extremely bearish and and, and when you get to that maximum pessimism, um, you know that, that that's what I can remember the most vividly.
嗯 这不是我通常会尝试买的点 虽然我不会尝试买低点 除非 如果股票突破 有一堆股票成立 那么我不关心市场是否有新的贷款 Um. Now, that's not a point that I would generally try to buy, though I wouldn't try to buy the lows unless, again, if the stocks are breaking out, you have a bunch of stocks setting up, then I don't care if the market's making new loans or not.
所以我有过一次 So I kind of get off once.
一旦市场进入调整一段时间 市场情绪变得非常悲观 我就会脱离基本面 Once the market gets into a correction for a while, and the sentiment gets really bearish, I get off the fundamentals.
据你所知 为了引导我进入股市 我只关注股票 As far as you know, for guiding me into into stocks, I get, I just focus on just the stocks.
如果他们准备好了 我就会去那里 我的偏好是所有人 整个世界都看空 每个人都呼吁 你知道 萧条 And if they set up, I'm going in there and And my preference would be for everybody to be, the whole world to be bearish, and everybody calling for, you know, a depression.
我希望尽可能看空 I wanted as bearish as possible.
哦 或者我们刚刚开始让这种情绪从看空转向看多 它刚刚开始改善 Oh, or we just start to get that sentiment to turn around from bearish to bullish, and it just starts to improve.
嗯 一般来说 这是最一致的事情 Um, that's generally, that's that sort of the thing that is most consistent.
第二件在那个时期最一致的事情就是你的股票设置每次从空市到牛市 Um, the 2nd thing that would be most consistent around that time would be the stock set up that you every single time that there's ever been a bare market that turned into a bull market.
指数可能有涨有跌 但是 但是 但是在市场上赚钱很容易的时候 我想在市场上更激进一些 很多股票成立了 The indexes may have gone up and bottomed, but, but, but the point at which money was being made real easily in the market, and I wanted to get aggressive in the market, a lot of stocks set up.
这是绝对的 你知道 贯穿整个海滩 一直回到时间的起点 And that's that is absolutely, you know, consistent through the beach, all the way back to the beginning of time.
无论指数如何 无论新闻如何 在股票建立之前 你都不要太激进 因为这就是你交易的东西 Um, you don't, no matter what the index is doing, no matter what the the news is, you don't want to get aggressive until the stocks are setting up, because that's what you're trading.
就像现在一样 And see just like now, too.
好吧 我们可能在一年中处于季节性的一周 但这并不意味着某些股票不能在一个基础上起飞 Okay, we may be in a in a seasonally week period of the year, but that doesn't mean that certain stocks can't come on a basis and take off.
这不仅仅是因为标准普尔500指数可能疲软 It doesn't just because the S&P 500 might be weak.
疲软可能意味着 在接下来的三周 我们下跌了3% And weak could mean, you know, we're, we're down 3 %, you know, over the next three weeks.
我们的意思是 我们得到 你知道 我们得到 你知道 我们我们不知道那是什么意思 你知道 弱是什么意思 We can mean, we get, you know, we get pumbled, there's, you know, we we don't know what that means, you know, what weak means.
所以底线是 一旦你得到 一旦你得到消息不好的地方 你知道 利率 So bottom line is is that, you know, once you get, once you get where the news is bad, you know, interest rates are
上升 通货膨胀 所有这些 你知道 所有这些宏观的事情都是逆风 moving up, inflation, all these things, you know, all these macro things that are headwinds.
是的 这绝对是我们必须尊重的时候 Yes, that is definitely when we have to respect.
但你必须了解市场 But you have to realize the market
是贴现机制 它在某一点上是向前看的 is a discounting mechanism. It's looking forward at some point.
它会在前面转弯 It's going to turn before
现在的消息是 美联储开始降低利率 the news now now, the Fed starts lowering rates.
你知道 这当然是一种燃料 可以启动或帮助 你知道 一个新的市场 或至少如果他们暂停 You know, that's certainly, you know, a fuel that can that can start or or help a, you know, a newble market, or or at least if they pause.
好的 先生 雪莉想请你简单解释一下手腕跑步机和长期跑步机的区别 Okay, sir, sherry is asking if you could give brief explanation on the difference between the wrist model and the long term treadmill.
是的 它们非常不同 我的意思是 长期跑步机是基于四个技术指标的 Yeah, they're very different. I mean, the long term treadmill is based on four technical indicators.
这不是我用了很长时间的NedDavis的研究模型 It's not mine as a Ned Davis research model that I've been using for a long, long time.
我一直是内德·大卫研究公司的客户 但不是一直都是 但大部分时间 我不知道 30年 也许更久 I've been a customer of Ned David Research, um, but not consistently the entire time, but most of the time for, I don't know, 30 years, maybe even more.
实际上 我想应该是布伦芒 是的 这是八十年代末的作品 Actually, I think it's Brenmung Yeah, it's, it's back only back to the late eighties.
所以 你知道 我对他们的工作了如指掌 Um, so, um, you know, I know their work inside out.
有一些模式是我一直遵循的 And there's some models that I've been following forever.
UM 这个风险模型完全是由我开发的 它不只是一个纯粹的机械模型里面有一些我们必须做出判断的因素 UM, the risk model is purely developed by me, and it's, it's not just a purely mechanical it's got some elements in it that we have to actually make a judgment call on.
所以肯定还有一些回旋的空间 当然 茎模型更多的是一种判断 So it is definitely a little more wiggle room there as far as And then of course, the stem model is even more of a judgment.
这完全是主观判断 这纯粹是我们如何根据焦点列表如何扩大他们的收缩 以及如何开放头寸和我们自己的个人交易进行对环境进行排名的方法 That's a pure judgment call. That's purely how we rank the environment based on how the focus list is expand their contracting, and based how the open positions and our own personal trading is going.
所以你可以把它们想象成完全机械的 部分机械的 或者完全不是机械的 So sort of think of them as fully mechanical, partially mechanical, not mechanical at all, you know.
但如果我要依靠其中一个来交易 我会选择一个主干模型作为我的主要指导 来指导我 But if I were to count on one or the other of all those for trading, I'd go with a stem model as my main guide, to to guide me.
如果我只用一个模型来指导我 我就能获得荣誉 那就是stem模型 If if I were to, you know, use just one model to guide me, I can honor off, it would be the stem model.
雷蒙德问T-L还是X是潜在的替身 Raymond's asking is T-L or X the potential paraplay?
P-L-R-X 让我看看 等一下 P-L-R-X. Let me see, hold on.
嗯 我想把这个提出来 1 s Um, just want to bring that up.
T-L-R-X 看起来很眼熟 是的 是99 我在看另一个屏幕 1s T-L-R-X, which just looks familiar. Um, yeah, it's a 99, just, I'm just looking at another screen, 1 s.
我知道每周Look的销量大幅下降 I know it came off a lot as a huge decline for Look on a weekly.
现在 这是另一个 你有一个巨大的下降90%+90% 现在它上升了 你知道 4或500% Now, this is another one where you've got this massive decline of 90% plus 90 %, and now it's gone up, you know, uh, four or 500 %.
所以 我的意思是 从技术上讲 是的 我迈出了一大步 So, I mean, technically speaking, yes, I made a huge move.
这里收紧了 但是现在 当然 我做的第一件事总是测量 It's tightening up here. But now, of course, I always the 1st thing I do is measure.
我们看一下 A峰是什么 So let's see, what is this measure, A peak.
槽在这里 说拉回来 The trough here, say the pull back.
所以回调约为30% 这有点过分了 但基数更大了 So the pullbacks about 30 %. So that's a bit excessive, but it is making a larger base here.
所以如果它能继续收紧 我的右边变得非常非常紧 我会把这看作是一种权力游戏 要求更多的 你知道 在这里建立一个大的基础 So if it can keep tightening, I got really, really tight in the right side, I would look look at this as sort of a power play, ask a more of a just a, you know, building a big base here.
你可以看到200天开始出现在这里 You see that the 200 days starting to turn up here.
这是给定的时间 你确实需要应付一些间接供应 你知道 这确实有很大的下降 但反弹的方式 很明显 看看他的生产线 So it's given some time. You do have some overhead supply to contend with, you know, this did make a big decline, but the way it came ripping back, obviously, look at his line.
将要发生的事情 一些新闻 我不太清楚 但很明显这里面有蹊跷 Something's going on. Some news. I don't know much about this, but there's obviously something going on.
8300万股股票在这一天流入 83 million shares came in, you know, on this day here.
还是那句话 贝蒂 买股票可不是你阿姨干的 Um, again, that's not your aunt, betty, by buying the stock.
所以 呃 但答案是 是的 是的 这对我来说不是教科书 So, uh. But the answer is, yes, yes, it's not textbook for me.
它有一些东西 你知道 有点可怕 我认为 有风险 It's got some things about it that are, you know, are a little scary and, I think, at risk.
但如果它能收紧 非常收紧 我认为值得一试 But if it can tighten up, real tight, I think it's worth taking a, taking a stab at um.
我也会把它放好 I'll keep that on watch too.
减少哦 朱瑞克的问题是 如果我想在这个非常空的市场做空头交易 应该选哪只股票 Cut Uh. Jujurick is asking, if I want to make swing trades on the short side in this very bare market, which stocks to look for?
你现在有一个潜在的问题的例子吗 And do you have an example of potential short potential trouble right now?
我不喜欢 现在 我不太想买短裤 I don't. Right now, I'm not really looking for shorts.
在市场超卖的情况下 在过去的6到8个月里 市场是空的 这取决于你在哪里衡量 With the market oversold, and, you know, a bare market in place for the last, you know, six to eight months, depending on where you measure, um.
许多股票下跌了7080-90% And many stocks down 7080, 90 %.
你知道 我认为在这一点上短视是 你知道 是非常危险的 You know, I think the short sight at this point is, um, you know, is is very risky.
嗯 所以 你知道 去哪里找 Um. So, you know, where to look?
问题的第一部分是什么 What was the 1st part of the question?
他在寻找 如果你 如果他想在这个非常空的市场上做空 木头股票 我 我必须去找股票 Um, he's looking, if you, if he wants to make short swings on the short side in this very bare market, wood stock, to look, I-I would have to look for stocks
这就是卖空的标准 that make, you know, short selling criteria.
但我个人认为 做空是没有必要的 But I, personally, I think, you know, shorting is unnecessary.
我已经说过无数次了 I've said this a million times.
我做空的不多 我99 99%的财富都是做多赚来的 所以 我的业绩和其他人一样好 I-I don't short much. Um, I've made 99.99% of my wealth on the long side, so, and my track record is about as good as anybody
在这个世界上 这意味着你可以获得巨大的回报 in the world. So, so saying that means that you can get a great return.
我去过很多地方历史上最大的一些备用市场 And I've gone through, you know, A-A good number some of the biggest spare markets in history.
87次撞车 1990年 2000年 哦 8次 87 crash, 1990, um, you know, 2000, oh, eight.
你知道 最近的海湾空难 You know, the recent Cove crash, of course.
不 我经历了历史上几次最大的下跌 但仍然不用做空来获得回报 No. I've gone through some of the biggest declines in history, and still have not had to use shorting to get my return.
还有还有市场 你也一样 对吧 And and, uh, market, you're the same, might you?
现在你的大部分收益都是做多的 对吧 Now you the majority of all your returns has been on the long side, right?
是的 这是正确的 就像你们很多人一样 我也是这么学的 Yeah, that's right. And, and, like a lot of you guys, I-I kind of learned that the same way.
我想 是的 我做过一些做空 而且 你知道 是有利可图的 但它很小 它弥补了 我没有 我不知道我会说99 9 但它有一个 它有一个非常小的差异 在实现长期目标方面 I think, yeah, I've done some shorting and and and have been, you know, profitable, but it's very small, and it it makes up, I haven't, I don't know that I would say 99.9, but it's made a, it's made a very little difference in terms of, uh, say, getting to the long term goals.
是的 是的 我的意思是 现在 你知道 再次 有些时候 我的意思是 我的意思是 我做空 在市场上完美 不幸的是 我在错误的指数 你知道 当我们有手机信号的时候 我看到这里 它仍然在这里 Yeah, yeah. I mean, now, you know, again, there's times where, I mean, I got this short, perfect on the market, unfortunately, I was in the wrong index, you know, back when, um, we got the cell signal, I see right here, it's still on here.
我收到了第1哈希的手机信号 I got the cell signal on this 1st hash.
我第二天做空它 就在这里 I short it the next day, right there.
那就是做空标普指数 That will be short the S&P.
一开始有小幅下降 然后又回升 创下名义新高 And we initially got a nice little decline there, then it came back and made a nominal new high.
我本应该让他放心的 抖得很好 然后就倒了几下 可能就在这里 Now, I-I should have reassured this as it was, it was a perfect shake out, and then just collapsed a couple, probably here.
即使是从这里开始的 这两个地方是我要短的地方但我决定远离 嗯 很多时候 只是因为我不想激怒你们 And even when it starts down here, those are the two spots to reach short But I decided just to stay away, um, a lot of times, just because I don't want to whip you guys around.
你知道 我开始收到 我们开始收到无数封邮件 我们进进出出 进进出出 我们就尽量把鞭子锯下来 You know, I start getting, we start getting a zillion emails that we go in and out, in and out, and we'll just try to keep that whip saw down.
嗯 但是 但是如果你看看纳斯达克 你知道 如果我 如果我做空线索 现在甚至打开线索 我会看线索 Um, but, but if you look at the NASDAQ, you know, if I, if I short the cues, now even bring up the cues, I'll look at the cues.
纳斯达克有抛售行为 There was the selsing on the NASDAQ.
是的 看到了 所以线索就在这里 很短 Yeah, see. So the cues right right here, that short.
我们不会因为屡创新高而被淘汰 We wouldn't have been stopped out because it was new highs.
我用的就是这个 我用的是市场上的一个新高 That's what I was using. I was using a new high in the market.
如果你想的话 它会一直在里面 So that would would have been in it through this whole time, if you wanted to.
但是 我担心我所说的是因为我经常做空指数当我认为它们是顶的时候 But, but again, I the what worries I'm saying that is because I often short the indexes when I think they're topping.
我会做空etf 嗯 And I'll short to ETFS. Um.
我确定在9点11分 即将进入9点11分 I was sure on 09:11, going into 09:11.
即便如此 当它开业的时候 当然 你知道 市场下跌了很多 And even with that, and when it opened, of course, you know, the market was down huge.
嗯 它仍然不是真正的会计 Um, it's still never really accountant.
我从股票中学到的大部分财富都不是用来做会计的 It's never accountant for a big portion of my wealth that I learned from stocks.
那可能是有史以来最伟大的时代之一 除了87年的崩盘 And that was probably one of the greatest times ever to be, other than the going into the crash of 87.
啊 是的 那是非常 非常矛盾的一天 不得不说 你知道 在那一天 我有点高兴 因为我在赚钱 但更多的是 对发生的事情感到难过 Ah, that would be. That was a very, that was a very conflicted day, have to say, you know, short short on that day, and being, uh, somewhat happy, because I was making money, but much more, uh, sad of what took place.
我的客户都死了 当时我的一些大客户都死了 Clients of mine actually died, in that some of my biggest clients at the time perished.
在那 我的助理30分钟前也在大楼里 不久之后他就辞职了 In that. My assistant was in the building 30 min before too, and he shortly after quit the business.
他吓坏了 事实上 我失去了我的助手不是因为死亡 而是因为 就像我说的 他被这件事吓坏了 He was so shaken up. I've actually lost my assistant from not by death, but just simply because, like I said, he was, he was so shaken up from it.
嗯 迈克尔问他是否真的喜欢战术 平均还是卖出部分头寸 Um? Michael is asking he really likes tactics, averaging up or selling partial positions.
然而 我的投资组合经常以四分之一和一半大小的头寸而告终 只是卖出头寸来清理你的门户 However, my portfolio regularly ends up fragmented and cluttered with quarter and half sized positions To just sell positions to clean up your portfoal.
你有没有卖出过稳固的头寸来清理你的投资组合 Have you ever to sell the solid positions clean up your portfolio?
你是怎么处理的 How do you deal with that?
是的 我是说 你必须以你觉得舒服的方式和你想要的方式来处理它 Yeah, I mean, you have to deal with it how you feel comfortable and what you want.
你知道 如果有很多要看的东西 你觉得要看的东西太多了 我总是 我总是喜欢把最少的头寸集中起来 因为这样我就能密切关注它们 我就能掌控一切 这样管理起来就容易多了 You know, if there's a lot to watch and you feel like it's too much to to watch, I always, I always like to have the fewest amount of positions to be concentrated, because then I can really keep an eye on them closely, and I'm really on top of everything, and it's much easier to manage.
所以你必须决定 你能管理多少 你知道吗 So you have to decide, you know, what, how much you can manage, you know?
当你开始做部分姿势的时候你就会有一部分 And you're gonna have part when you start doing partial positions.
特别是 当你第一次进入市场 你买了一个试点 你会有更多的仓位 And especially, you know, when you're 1st going into the market, you take a pilot buys, you're gonna have more positions.
在modeler中 我认为 真的是伟大的工具 因为你可以 你知道的 你可以有一个更大数量的名字甚至或观察名单 可以跟踪 你可以每天晚上 看看 看看 你知道 是什么让你违反和确认 至少帮助你 你知道 管理更大一些的职位 但是你 你必须自己做出这样的选择 你知道的 And that's where modeler, I think, comes in in's really great tool, because you can, you know, you can have a larger amount of names and even or a watch list, and that that can keep track, and you can just each night, take a look and see, you know, what's giving you the violations and the confirmations, at least help you, you know, manage a larger a number of of positions, but you, you gotta make that choice yourself, you know.
我是说 你能做到的 I mean, what you can manage.
而且 你知道 我想卖掉一只股票 因为它的仓位很小 And also, you know, I want to just sell a stock just because it's a small position.
小仓位大变动比大仓位不变动能让你赚更多的钱 A small position that makes a big move can make you more money than a big position that doesn't go anywhere.
所以 你知道 还是那句话 对待每一笔交易 看图表 看基本面 So, um, you know, again, just treat every trade, look at the chart, look at the fundamentals and
把它当做是一样的 就像 你知道的 在此基础上做决定 而不是站在立场的角度 and and treat it as the same, as as, uh, you know, making that decision based on on that, not on the position's eyes.
好吧 我弟弟 抱歉 爱德华是MPA的新成员 上周在bjM-C-K和Tmobile持有少量头寸 但今天可能是增持这些头寸的好时机 Okay, my uh brother, sorry. Edward, who is new to MPA, took small position in bj M-C-K and T mobile last week, but to may be a good day to add to those positions.
或者我应该选择一些新的小职位 比如EVH和e-m-p-h-我不知道 Or should I take a few new small positions like your EVH and E-M-P-H-I don't know.
我不知道 你是在我们买的时候买的 还是随便买的 I don't know. Did you buy them when we were buying them, or did you just buy them randomly?
所以听起来 如果你问你是否应该添加今天 听起来你是随机购买 So it sounds like, if you're asking if you should add today, it sounds like you're sort of randomly buying.
应该只在股票通过支点 从诱饵 走出基地的时候才买入 Should be only be buying when the stocks move through pivot points and are coming from bait, coming out of bases.
所以我不明白你今天为什么要买Mobile So I don't see why would you buy t Mobile today.
它的时间 不是离开基地 It's time. It's not moving out of a base.
它没有到达一个枢轴点 It's not coming to a pivot point.
事实上 它看起来正好相反 Matter of fact, it looks just the opposite.
你有这么多的逆转 我想我应该说过 要么在学习课上 要么在上周 You got all these reversals, I-I think I talk about this, uh, either in the study session or or or last week.
做着所有这些逆转动作 滚到这里 Um, doing all these reversals, rolling over here.
我的意思是 我相信光是看它就有压力 I mean, I believe this is under pressure, just looking at it.
我不确定 但看起来压力很大 I'm not sure, but this looks like it's under pressure.
嗯 如果你跑单诺勒特 所以是的 我还拿着它 Um, if you run monolert, so yes, I'm still holding it.
然后用 stop 来标记 Um, and stick em with the stop.
但我在这里买的时候 绝对不会 But when I buy it here, absolutely not.
我不明白你为什么要问这个 说实话 I don't understand why you're even asking that, be honest with you.
我只是不明白为什么 你为什么要在这里买 I just don't understand why. Why will you be buying it here?
马克说他知道我们现在没有利润 Mark is saying that he knows that we are off margin right now.
然而 如果条件再次合适 你如何决定使用多少保证金如果我冒险用1%的资本来计算保证金的数量 However, if and when conditions are right again, how do you determine how much margin to use if I risk 1% of my capital to include the amount of margin in that calculation.
对 我可能是最不适合问这个问题的人 因为 首先 你知道 我已经不怎么用保证金了 Yeah, so I'm probably the worst person to ask for that, because, 1st of all, 1st of all, you know, I don't use margin much anymore.
我在美国投资锦标赛的时候做过 I did during the U-S Investing championship.
我不应该说我没用过 And I shouldn't say I don't use it.
是的 但我会用它来代替我的现金 I do, but I'll use it as a proxy for my cash.
举个例子 如果我只有j 你知道 只是一个随机数 让我们在我的账户里有一百万美元 So, for instance, if I only have j just just giving, you, you know, just a random number, let's just have a million dollars in my account.
但我现在有1000万美元的资本 我可以交易 但我的账户里没有 But I have now $10 million worth of, you know, capital that I could trade, but I just don't have it in the account.
我可能会用保证金 因为我有一天400万而隔夜购买力是200万 I might, I might use margin, you know, because I would have intraday four, 4 million and buying power overnight, 2 million.
我还是只花了我全部钱的一部分 I'm still only using A-A portion of my my overall money.
也许只是现在不在那个账户里 Maybe it's just not in that account right now.
老实说 我不用保证金本身只要我的资本比我想投入股市的还要多 So I really don't use margins per per se as far as I have more capital than I even want to put in the stock market, to be honest with you.
另一个原因是 我要让马克回答这个问题 但另一个原因是 我是一个被问错的人 因为当我这样做的时候 我会一直买 直到我买不到更多了 So the other reason why I'm, and I'm going to let Mark where she answered this, um, but also, the other reason why I'm, I'm a bad person asked is because when I do, I just buy until I can't buy any more.
这甚至可能会成为你的答案 And that might even be probably gonna be your answer mark.
我只买到我没钱为止 I just buy until I'm out of money.
你知道 当情况好转的时候 我就像一头猪 你知道 我就在那里不停地买 买 买回来 就在他们还没有 你知道 他们可以监控这些东西的前一天 You know, when things are good, I'm a total pig, you know, I'm in there just buying, buying, buying one back on the day before they even had, you know, they can monitor these things.
电脑会把你关掉 And computers would like shut you down.
我会接到经纪人的电话 他们会说 你在做什么 伙计 I would get calls from my broker, and they'd say, what are you doing, man?
你买的东西比你应该买的多了三倍 You're like, three times more than you're supposed to be buying.
我想 哦 哇 对不起 我没有意识到 I'm like, oh, wow. I'm sorry, I didn't realize that.
我将停止 你知道 就像 不 你必须卖出一些股票 I'll stop. You know, it's like, no, you got to sell some stock.
我刚买完 他们打电话告诉我你不能再买了 You know, I was just over I buy until they called me and told me that you got to stop buying.
我只是用了经纪人的房子的钱 I just use the broker's house this money.
现在 你不能这样做 你知道 他们有电脑 他们限制了这一点 但是 但是 再一次 你知道 我试着 你知道 当事情进展顺利时 我尽量使用 尽可能多的火力 Now Nowadays, you can't do that, you know, they're come with computers, you know, they limit that, um, but, uh, but again, so, you know, I-I try to, you know, use as much, um, as much fire power as possible when things are going well.
我认为这就是 你知道 像醉醺醺的米勒 和 你知道 一些真正伟大的交易员 也许 你知道 业余交易员之间的区别 你知道 或者至少对我来说 你知道 马克·里奇也一样 你知道 这似乎 你知道 马克·里奇真的有很好的感觉去踩踏板 你知道 然后又跳回来休息 And I think that's the difference between, you know, guys like, you know, drunken Miller, and, you know, some of the the really great traders, and maybe, you know, the amateurs, is that, you know, or at least for myself, you know, and Mark Richie too, You know it, it seems like, you know, mark Richie really has a good feel for went to step on the pedal, you know, and then went to hop back on the break too.
这是很重要的一部分 And that's a big part of it.
用保证金做标记 什么 嗯 我不知道 你知道 你现在的交易规模比五年前 十年前要大得多 Mark with margin, what? Um? And I don't know, you know, you're, you're trading much larger size than you did, you know, five years, ten years ago.
我甚至不知道你是否还在使用余量 I don't even know if you're even using much margin anymore.
呃 我没有 最近 出于很明显的原因 你有点偷了我的答案 你知道 很明显他们不会打电话给你 但电脑基本上会说 没有购买力了 对吧 Uh, well, I haven't. Recently, for obvious reasons, you kind of stole my answer in terms of, you know, obviously they don't call you, but the computer will basically say, no more buying power, right?
我已经有一段时间没有收到这条消息了 但在市场行情好的时候 我时不时会收到这条消息 It's been a little while since I've gotten that message, but I'll get that message every now and again in a good market.
这真的很简单 伙计们 如果我们只说你的长 六到 And it's really simple, guys, if let's just say your long, six to
八个名字 但你几乎 你没有任何 我称之为 主要或主要的PML风险 eight names, but you've derist almost, you're not carrying any you know, what I would call say, you know, principal or piant real PML risk.
还有更多的设置 And there's a lot more setups.
这就是保证金的情况 你有很多商品要买 你不会承担太多风险 Well, that's when you go on margin, you know, you're you've got there's more merchandise to buy, and you're not carrying much risk.
那你你继续加油 Well, then you you stay on the gas.
所以我从来没有想过 So I-I never think about it though in
比如我是否使用了20%的保证金资本之类的 terms of, well, am I using 20% of my margin capital and that type of thing.
尤其是在一个好的环境里 我总是更关注股票 It's, it's always, especially in a good environment, I'm more just focused on the stocks.
然后 当前的重点列表在做什么 你知道 或者你正在追踪的想法的数量 如果它们继续激增 你就保持 你知道 你就坚持下去 And then what are the, what is the current focused list doing, you know, or the number of ideas that you're tracking, if they're continuing to proliferate, you just keep, you know, you keep at it.
但我也会说 对我来说 边缘就像一个链锯 So, but I would also say, to me, margin is like a chainsaw.
它在右边是一个了不起的工具 你知道 在一个知道如何安全使用它的人手中 我将 你知道 标记规则 如果事情进展不顺利 你不应该考虑边际 It's a phenomenal tool at the right, you know, in the hands of someone who knows how to safely use it, and I would, you know, marks rules in terms of, if things aren't going well, you shouldn't be thinking about margin.
在这一点上 这几乎是一个没有意义的问题 因为我觉得现在我们可能几周后才会使用它 So at this point, it's almost like a bit of a meaningless question, because I feel like now we could be a few weeks away from using it.
事情的变化就是这么快 That's how quickly things can change.
但现在还没这个必要 But right now there's just no need for it.
是的 是的 还有 你知道 保证金 嗯 嗯 你知道 就你所知 我很关心 Yeah, yeah. And and again, you know, margin, um, um, you know, as far as you know, I'm concerned.
嗯 你知道 保证金是一种你必须非常谨慎地使用的东西 Um, you know, margin is something that you have to use very sparingly, you know.
只有当事情进展非常非常顺利的时候 才会在最好的环境下进行 It's only, it's only for the best environments when things are going really, really well.
到了那个时候 就像马克说的 我只是在买 你知道 试着得到尽可能多的东西 And then at that point, like Mark said, I'm just buying, you know, and trying to just get get as much on as possible.
就像马克说的 你知道 电脑会 你知道 你没有更多的购买力 As Mark said, you know, they the computer will just, you know, you have no more buying power.
但在30年前 你在荣誉系统里 你只是不停地买买买 在你意识到之前 你就像 5倍的x但问题是 尽管关闭了你 他们还是会关闭你 如果你这么做了几次 他们会警告你 然后你就会 你就会有麻烦 他们会关闭你的账户 But back 30 years ago, um, you were on the Honor system, you just buy and buy and buy, and before you know it, you're like, five x and But the thing is is, though shut you, they would shut you down, like if you did it a couple of times, they warn you, and then you'd, you'd get in trouble, um, and they can shut your account down.
嗯 如果你是一个大客户 他们可能会让你逃脱更多的惩罚 因为你赚了很多佣金 Um, if you were a big client, they might let you get away with it even more, because you're generating a lot of commission.
所以那时候还不太清楚 So it was a fuzzy area back then.
但是现在 你知道 他们现在你不能逃脱惩罚 But now, you know, they now now you can't get away with that.
好了 可可 C-O-C-O 约翰想知道这个名字的最佳条目是1480 All right, coco, C-O-C-O, john is asking if a good entry would be 1480 on that name.
是的 我的观察名单上有这个 Well, yeah, I-I have this on my watch list.
我差点把它放在维勒身上 I almost put it on viler.
我知道 我想我在周末讨论过这个问题 I know, I think I talked about it over the weekend.
我现在还不会买这个 Um, I-I-I would not buy this just yet.
我想进去看看 然后再把车拉回来 I'd want to see to go inside and then get a pull back by.
所以这只是拉回的第一步 So this is just the 1st step of a pull back by.
现在 如果它在里面呆上一两天 然后从那里出来 那么我可能会使用 你知道 使用这里的高点 类似这样的东西 Now, if it goes inside for a day or two, and then comes out from there, then maybe I use, you know, use these highs right here, something like that.
下车的时候可以用慢速车 Um, and maybe use the slow for your stop.
你知道 钢管后面的价格有点高 但考虑到现在的行情 这也算正常了 Um, you know, it's a little excessive on the pole back, but considering the market, it's about normal.
但这真的很奇怪 橡胶在这里碰到了路 But this is really weird. The rubbers kind of meet the road right here.
我的意思是 它把所有的后面 I mean, it pulled all the back.
如果从这里继续下去 就会变得很不正常 If this comes off much more from here, it's going to really get abnormal.
所以 你你绝对是在交易 我称之为危险点 So, you you're definitely trading what, you know, I would call the danger point.
现在 这才是它真正应该停留的地方 Now, this is where it really should hold.
嗯 你说的是1480 对吧 Um? So you're saying 1480, rights?
必须 我不确定有1480这么高 That must be. I'm not sure we get 1480 this high.
对吧 这里是1474 之后的高点是1459点 Right? Here is 1474. The high after that is 1459.
在1480年的水平 我不知道你们是怎么想到1480的 但我想说 要么在1459以上 要么在1474以上 So 1480. I'm not sure where you're coming up with 1480, but I would say either above the 1459 or the 1474.
嗯 但我想让它进去看看 也许明天 然后 Um. But I'd want to see it go inside, maybe tomorrow and then.
它也可以是这样的 它在早上进入内部 UM 然后从那里出来 我宁愿看到它进入内部一天 然后转向 And it could also play out like this, where it goes inside in the morning, UM, and then comes out from there, which I'd rather see go inside for a day and then pivot.
这就是我的最佳设置 That would be my optimal set up.
但也有可能 明天就会出现 But it could also, uh, just turn up, you know, tomorrow.
乔治在LPG上周的焦点列表中问道 George is asking on LPG last week's focus list.
啊 是啊 太突然了 Ah, yeah, that abruptly and crap.
不过 床上显示 周一 它确实突破了8月23日1579价格的高点 但没有走出8月3日1617价格的高点 The bed was saying, though, that on Monday, it did break out above the high of august 23 on 1579 price, but did not take out the august 3 1617 high.
他的问题是想弄明白 为什么金价没有突破161579的突破水平 And his question was just trying to understand, what, why it was not bought breaking above the 16 1579 break out level.
为什么不是吗 男孩是的 我 我不记得了 Why wasn't it? Boy Yeah, I-I don't, I don't remember.
我不知道 我选择不买 I don't know. I chose not to buy it.
我的意思是 它确实是 I mean, it was, it certainly pivoted.
我想我们已经启动越狱警报了 I think we put it on breakout alert.
当然指出了这一点 顺便说一下 这张图表也是倾斜的 Certainly pointed this out. By the way, this chart, too is skewed.
我想是有分发什么的 对吧 There was a distribution, I think, or something, right?
让我想想 L-P-G嗯 是有分配的 Let's see, L-P-G uh, yeah, there was a distribution.
所以这个主元实际上比原来高 在这个水平附近 So this actually, this pivot right here is actually higher then it was right up right near this level right here.
嗯 对的 所以这是这个 这个 他在暗示他们要花时间来做这些调整 Uh, right. So this is this, this, um, he signal takes their time with making these adjustments
图表 这很烦人 但事实就是这样 to the chart. It's very annoying, but that's what happens.
我不记得了 我只是决定不不买 I-I don't remember. I just decided not to not to buy it.
你知道 它确实触发了 但是 我当时决定不买 You know, it did trigger, but, um, I just decided that not to buy it at the time.
我不能告诉你为什么 有时候 我这要看事情进展如何了 I can't tell you why. Sometimes, I-I it depends on how things are going.
如果一切都很流行 一切都很顺利 我的意思是 我就会买所有的东西 你知道的 所有爆发的东西 If everything's pop and everything's going well, I mean, I'm just, I'm buying everything, you know, everything that breaks out.
但这可能是因为 你知道 市场不是但是我们没有得到很好的结果 你知道 But it's probably because, you know, the market was not but we weren't getting very good results, you know.
好吧 我已经把A-C-L-R调好了 你知道的 这个 你知道的 表现得还行 但是 你也看到了 这仍然没有给我们带来多少好处 All right, I also already had A-C-L-R on, and, you know, that, um, you know, is acting okay, but, uh, as you can see, that still not not giving us much gain.
问题来自菲利克斯 他问S-T-K-L是否可能开始一个新的上升阶段 Question would be coming from Felix, who was asking if S-T-K-L is potentially starting a new phase to upturn.
好吧 你说对了 这将是一个早期的转折 Well, yeah, you got it. This is what would be an early turn.
你看 200天刚好出现在一个月左右 You see, the 200 days just turned up for about a month.
有一点 对 大概一个月了 A little, a little, yeah, about a month.
所以这是一个早期的转变 So this would be an early turn.
你才刚刚开始 你知道的 符合标准 但它在确认药物痕迹方面确实有帮助 You're just starting to, you know, meet the criteria, but it does as far as confirm stage drug tread.
不 这是一个早期的转弯 所以你还需要做一些工作才能真正进入到完美的第二阶段 No, this is an early turn, so you still have work to do to really get this into a bonified Stage two Uptra.
她要求你在趋势模板中使用100个50天移动平均值 She is asking that you use a hundred 50 day move an average in your trend template.
为什么你用第一百零五天而不是一百二十五天 因为一百二十五天是50和200之间的中点 Is there a reason why you use a hundred 5th day instead of a hundred and 25 day, because a hundred and 25 day would be the midway point between the 50 and the 200?
不 我的意思是 这只是到目前为止有效的 我不认为你会得到 你不会得到一个大的不同的结果 No, I mean, that just what has worked as far as, and I don't think you're going to get a, you're not going to get a big different result.
这一百五十天刚好超过了200天 这再次证实了你已经有了更长期的趋势 The hundred and 50 days just used to cross the 200 day to again is another confirmation that you've got the longer term trend in place.
当你得到一个很长的基数时 有时你可以得到一个不错的基数 但是把100和50放在200以下 因为它们有点平 When you get a real long base, sometimes you can get a decent base, but have the hundred and 50 below the 200, because they're sort of flat.
但是 它仍然可以 但是你不会得到和01 25或01 50有太大区别的读数 Um and and and still, it could still be okay, but you're not going to really get a much bit different reading from 01:25 or 01:50 either.
平滑 嗯 但是没有魔法 Smoothings. Um. But there's no magic.
没有真正的神奇数字 我的意思是 如果你从01 50上升到50 你知道 或者75 显然会快得多 There's no real magic number. I mean, if you go from 01:50 to up 50, you know, or 75, obviously that would be much quicker.
但是 但是 是的 这是一百五十美元 But, but, yeah, it it's the hundred and 50.
这就是我发现的最有效的方法 That's just what I found to to work the best.
我选择了200 威利的问题是一个低声下气的问题 Went with the 200. A question from Willie is kr tx A low cheek.
是啊 我们今天早上谈了这件事 马克和我 你知道的 你可以说服我周五买下来 Yeah, so we talked about this, uh, this morning, um, mark and I, and, you know, you could have made a case for buying it on Friday.
有一个小的 低的 廉价的枢轴 Had that little, low, cheap pivot.
所以这是你的低g 但是它现在被占用了 它从这里下来 所以它看起来需要更多的时间 So that was your low g But then it's squatted now it's coming off here, so it looks like it needs a bit more time.
嗯 所以 是的 这是一个很低的周五 然后 它试图从那里出来 Um? So, yeah, it was a low sheet Friday and then, and it tried to come out from there.
但是 就像现在 你知道 随着市场的发展 But again, like right now, you know, with the market in the in the shape it's in.
我们看到了很多这样的权力游戏 And we saw a lot of these power plays.
这有点令人不安 因为我们没有 没有标记 你你密切监控着权力的发挥 This was a little disconcerting, cause we had and no, no mark, you you monitor the power plays pretty closely.
我想你明白我的意思了 Um, I guess you're seeing what I'm saying.
我们有很多有影响力的地方 尤其是在生物技术领域 似乎很多地方都分崩离析了 We we had a lot of power place, particularly in the, um, the biotech area, it seemed like a lot of them have fallen apart.
我不知道 你的意思是说它们会在全面破坏的情况下分崩离析 而且它们是无法挽回的 还是说看起来我们已经经历了一些震荡 我们仍然可以在相当短的时间内重新安排 And I don't know, are you saying that they fall in apart where the destruction is like across the board, and they're irreparable, or does it look like we've got some shakeouts here, and we can still reset and fairly short order?
是啊 我觉得可能是一两个 Yeah, I would say it's probably either one or two.
要么我们会看到它 It's either we're going to see that.
当然 我们已经看到了一些支点失败的浪潮 但不一定是基础失败 We've seen a wave of some fa- pivot failures, for sure, but not necessarily base Failure.
有时候分数后面的会更好 And sometimes those subsequent by points are better.
实际上 我在周五的时候还吃了一小口 因为我觉得它可能会消失 I actually, I took a tiny little nibble on this even on Friday, just because I thought it might just go.
它没有 我向右走 你知道 向右走 It didn't. I stepped right, you know, step right back out, um,
嗯 它是什么样子的 E-M-P-H 你知道 就像你说的 你知道 我们有一种路径权力游戏 你知道 没有太多的双重 我不认为 and, uh, what was it like, E-M-P-H, you know, like you said, you know, we've got sort of the path power play ask, you know, didn't have quite the double, I don't think.
但是 你知道 这需要 你知道 But, you know, it's taking, you know,
这还需要再花上几周的时间 但这个名字可能会火起来 it's not, this is taking a little more, a few more weeks here, but this name could just take off.
所以你只是想让他们在你的雷达上 So you just want to keep them on your radar, um.
看起来 嗯 你知道 有一些 这是另一个我们正在看的 当我今天早上看的时候 And it seems like, uh, you know, there are some, yeah, this is another one we were watching when I was looking at this morning.
我在这里是一个潜在的小骗子 总的来说 这就是我想说的 I'm a potential little low cheat here within this, on balance, is what I was going to say there.
当然 还没有足够的人 到目前为止 我们还没有在这些活动中变得有攻击性 There hasn't been enough, certainly, to to to weren't getting aggressive in any of these yet.
但这是 你知道 再一次 你看着他 让他看着你的手表 But this is, you know, again, you keep an eye on, keep him on your watchless.
是啊 是啊 你得看着 我看到了这些杆子 你知道的 它们在往上跑 Yeah, yeah, you have to watch, um, you know, I see all these poles, you know, where they're running up.
然后他们 人们会说 旗帜 and then they, what people would say, flag out.
你知道 他们在萎靡不振 但是我们并没有看到它们的扩散 You know, they're flagging. But then we're just not seeing that proliferation of of them working.
就像1995年 情况类似 尽管当时市场刚刚起步 Like 1995, it was a similar situation, although the market was was taking off.
95年4月 我第一次在市场上投入大量资金 Um into April of 95, when I 1st started getting heavily invested in the market.
市场已经创下新高 并从低点开始强劲反弹 The market had already been into new highs and made A-A pretty strong move off the lows.
那里有很多很有权势的地方 我在那一年得到了很大的回报很多都是有权势的地方 但他们都在工作 There was a ton of high tight flags power place, and I made A-I met a big return that year in a lot of them were a power place, but they were, they were all working.
他们要逃出基地 They were breaking out of the base.
这就是我 你知道 我一遍又一遍地说 你们必须申请 获得股票 筛选股票 运用策略 获得反馈 And this is where I, you know, I-I say over and over, you guys have to apply, get the stocks, screen for the stocks, apply the tactics, get the feedback.
如果这些策略不起作用 那么你知道 你必须忍住冬天的想法是I-R-M-D 它正在大量崩溃 If the tactics aren't working, then you know, you've got, you got to hold back that winter thoughts are on I-R-M-D it's breaking down on huge volume.
我不确定你的股票代码是否正确 但他确实很喜欢这项服务 并说 谢谢 I'm not sure if you have the right ticker symbol there, but he does love the service, and says, thank you.
这绝对不是IMD绝对不是 That's definitely not IMD is definitely not it.
是的 是的 你需要重新输入 Yeah, yeah. And you got to retype that.
是吗 我是玛蒂不 这还不清楚 Is it? I am Mardi No, that's not it clear.
不知道那是什么 也许有人能弄明白 Not sure what that is. Um, maybe somebody can figure that one out.
Hot问如果你看一下C-O-R-N玉米商品 Hot is asking If you look at C-O-R-N corn commodity.
但今天 超过2674 好吧 我知道你在干什么了 But today, above 2674. Okay, I see what you're doing here.
你知道吗 你在这里放那个那个拉回 You know, it's, um, you're playing that that pull back by right here.
你进去了 这就是我们刚才说的 对吧 Um, so you went inside, this is what we just talked about, right?
跟你进去的时候一模一样 我说那是我的偏好 记得吗 Exact same thing where you went inside, and I said that was my, my preference, remember?
第二天你出来的时候 你没有超出这个范围 And now the next day you come out, you didn't go outside that range.
这很好 我本希望今天能在9点1分这里圆满结束 That's fine. Um, I would have liked to have this day here on nine one to be a good close.
这是最优的 他们有高档的好衣服 That would have been optimal. They had nice clothes in the upper range.
另一种最优的情况是 这一举措没有拿出前一天的低点 即松紧程度 A also optimal, would be where this didn't take out the low of the previous day, that the tightness.
但这是次要的 它仍然可以工作 But this is minor it could still work.
记住 你有一个 你知道 你有一个角度警告 它刚刚开始变平 Keep in mind, you do have a, you know, you had an angle warning here, and it's just starting to flatten out.
看到这空间的深度了吗 So see the depth of the space here, which came off?
如果它是一只股票 就没有那么深了 但对于商品来说 相对于它自己 这就像这就像瀑布一样下跌 你会直接进入 It's not that deep if it was a stock, but in a for commodity, and relative to itself, this is a this is like a waterfall decline here, and you're coming right into it.
看看这50天有多陡 So look how steep the 50 day is.
所以对我来说 我自己可能会远离这一点 也许为了一个快速的交易 So for me, I'd probably stay away from this at this point myself, maybe for a quick trade.
但这是从这里开始的 But this runs up from here.
有点太远了 It's sort of getting too far away.
你可以看到 50天很快就变平了 所以它可以在这里 And and you see, the 50 day is flattening out pretty quickly, so it can turn right up here.
嗯 但是 它还是有一些开销 Um. But again, it, it's got some overhead.
我认为这是一个很好的开头 I think it's a good entry.
我觉得 你知道 你在这做的很好 I think, you know, what you're doing here is good.
我只是 我只是觉得 嗯 嗯 你知道 这是 这是有点头顶供应左边 但它看起来是红色的 很好 I just, I just feel like, um, um, you know, it is, it is a bit of overhead supplied to the left, but it looks blush, good.
这绝对是教科书式的回撤方式在嘲笑的右边 Definitely a textbook way to apply a pull back by on the right side of a of a jeer.
creximals I-rDM I-r-d-m 是的 我想说它的体积很大 The creximals I-R DM I-R-D-M Yeah, yeah, I would say it's huge volume.
他做得很好 它是高于平均水平 It's real good by him. It's above average.
但是 是的 所以 是的 我是说 你知道的 我 我 我自己不能证明这一点 Um, but, yeah, so, uh, yeah, I mean, this, you know, I-I-I can't make a case for this, um, myself.
这里有点 这里有点松 It's a bit, it's a bit loose here.
只要在低点的时候就走 嗯 你知道 嗯 这不是 不符合我的要求 你知道 这不是 股票并没有真正处于强劲的上涨趋势 Just come and ripping off the lows, um, you know, uh, it's not, doesn't make, doesn't make my cut, you know, it's not like the, the stock isn't really in a strong up trend.
它已经偏离轨道一段时间了 It's been moving sideways for a while here.
当然 供应总是回来的 所以你没有太多的间接供应 Of course, the supply is always back, so you don't have much overhead supply.
但我希望 你知道 这可能也会 你知道 你知道 可能会拖延一两天 或者可能来这里 然后暂停一会儿 But I would expect, you know, this probably too, you know, maybe stall out for a day or two, or maybe come in here and and and pause a bit.
现在 只需要跑到右边 有点压缩 Now, just running up the right side, a bit compressed.
我不知道 我不知道有没有这方面的新闻 我不知道发生了什么 I don't know if, I don't know if there's news on this, I don't know what's going on with
这个 但我们会密切关注 this, but we keep an eye on it.
凯利在问 T-P-L-T-P-L 和拉里 Kelly is asking, T-P-L-T-P-L. And Larry right.
让我看看 T-P-L 打开另一个屏幕 是的 Thomas Paul Larry Yeah, let me see, uh, T-P-L, bring up another screen, yeah,
当然是在石油领域 in the oil area, of course.
97通过力量 看起来很不错 97 Roll through Strength. And it looks pretty good.
我是说 你知道的 我可能想在这里紧一点 如果我能再紧几天的话 I mean, you know, it's, um, I probably wanted to be a bit tighter here, if I could tighten up for a few more days.
然后在这一层以上 大约在1888年左右 And then came out above this level, right here, about that 1888 or so.
嗯 看起来还好 我是说 这不是我最喜欢的 Um, it looks okay. I mean, it's not my favorite.
嗯 在石油区 It's, um, in the oil area.
你看 这是一个很大的基数 You know this, if you look, you know, this is got a big base.
它在这里并没有什么大的进展 所以它看起来 你知道的 有点落后 It hasn't really made a big a move here, um, so it looks like, you know, someone of a laggard.
可能是 你知道 更强的名字 It's probably, you know, stronger names.
我喜欢每周的活动 这里有一个很大的每周活动栏 数量很大 还有一些每天的活动栏 但那是一个 那是一个很好的衣服 每周的户外活动 嗯 我确实喜欢上周的每周活动 I like the weekly, this big weekly bar here on this big volume, and, and there was some big daily volume too, but that's a, that's a nice clothes, big outside day on the weekly, um, I do like the weekly action last week.
所以现在你需要看看他们是否能坚持到底 So now you need to see if they can follow through from there.
如果 你懂的 如果这样说得通的话 And if that, uh, you know, if that's gonna make sense.
是吗 因为你会得到很好的 你知道的 很好的音量从低点传来 从低点传来很大的音量 我不确定 Is it? Because you get that nice, you know, that nice volume comes in here off the lows, you have big volume off the lows, and I'm not sure.
让我看看发生了什么 Let me see that it being happened.
我看不到任何新闻或其他东西 I can't see any news or anything.
嗯 你知道这绝对是你现在想看到的东西 发扬光大 Um, you know that That is definitely something that you want to see now, carry forward.
你想看到的是 不 你想看到的是 如果股价没有上涨 股票就会保持紧仓 然后从这里开始 And you want to see, no, you want to see the stock stay tight if it doesn't go anywhere, and then follow throw from there.
好了 我想我们可以结束最后一个问题了 Okay, I think we'll end on the last question.
罗伯特·鲍比夫妇想请您简单回顾一下标准森林第二阶段 上升和确认 Robert the Bobbys is asking if you could just briefly review the criteria Forest Stage Two, uptra and confirmations.
我知道 但那是他我所有的书 你知道的 你可以用精确的标准 Well, I sure, but it's him all my books, you know, you can just go into exact criteria.
你必须超过200天 就是那一天 You're going to have to be above the 200 day, the one.
在200天以上50天 50天 在这两个以上 你离52周的高点只有25%的距离 也就是离52英尺的高点25或30%的距离 Fifties above the 200 day, the 50 days, above both of them, you're within 25% of a 52 week high, or 25 or 30% off 52 ft.
低 我 你知道 在我的账本里 我放了70卢比 Low. Um, I-I, you know, in my books, I put a 70 rs.
当然 你也知道 如果你愿意 你可以把价格降得更低 但我大多数交易都坚持在89以上 Of course, you know, you can go lower than that if you want, but I generally stick with 89 above for the majority of my trades.
嗯 虽然 这是它的基本标准 Um though, though, that's the basic criteria of it.
你想 嗯 儿童日要提前 至少一个月 最好是四到五个月 And and you want the, um, the childrener day to be in an uptran, at least for a month, preferably four to five months.
我是说 虽然这是最基本的 你可以低于50天的价格 但我不会 I mean, though that's the basics of it, um, you could be below the 50 day on the price, but I wouldn't.
我选择了两支不超过10%的股票 比50日均线低8-10% 交易在50日均线以下 I stick two stocks that are no more than 10 %, eight to 10% below the 50 day, trading below the 50 day moving average.
作弊者是低作弊者 有时在50以下 On the cheatier is the low cheat, sometimes from below the 50.
好的 很明显 这一周假期很短 但请继续关注直播和工作 All right. And obviously a holiday short week, but do stay tuned to the live stream for updates and lurch with from work.
而且 我们这周持有的任何股票都没有收益 And also, there are no earnings for any of the holdings that we currently have for this week.
我也会很快的 抱歉 抱歉 鲍勃 我只想跟你说一件事 I'll real quick, too. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, bob, but I just wanted to talk about one thing.
嗯 别把这张图当成太少内容 因为它可能是可怕的 但是 呃 只是 我想指出 你知道 其中一个原因 我发现 你知道 人们倾向于失败 从长远来看 在股票市场 还是真的 任何东西 你知道 呃 这是具有挑战性的是他们低估了长期作用， 他们低估了五到十年的学习作用，你知道 我们更大的时期 想想看 你知道 也许学习曲线会比现在更短 Um and And don't take this chart too little, because it might be scary, but, uh, it's just, I wanted to point out something, you know, one of the reasons that I found that, you know, people tend to fail in the longer term, in the stock market, or in really, in anything, You know, that's uh, that's challenging um is that they, they underestimate the longer term, and they underestimate the five to ten or tenure, you know, our greater period, and to think, you know, maybe the learning curve is going to be shorter than it is.
这是我发现的 学习曲线在股票市场中 对大多数人来说 在头几年 你知道 通常你会倒退 你知道 有点像你开始打高尔夫球 你知道 然后有一些改善 And this is sort of what I've found, the learning curve is in in the stock market, for most people, in the 1st couple years, you know, it's usually you're going backwards, you know, sort of like when you start playing golf, you know, and then there's some improvement.
但通常在第一年到五年之间 你会有一段时间表现很好 But usually between that 1st year and five years, you get a period where you do really good.
然后你就会开始想 嘿 我能行 But then and you get and you start thinking, hey, I got this.
然后一些熊市场出现了 或者是一些意想不到的 你知道 你从未见过的环境 把你扔进了一个循环 And then some bare market comes, or some unexpected, you know, environment that you've never seen before, throws you for a loop.
然后你发现 你知道吗 And next thing you realize, you know what?
我远没有我以为的那么好 I'm not nearly as good as I thought I was.
这比我想象的要难 This is harder than I thought.
一切又重新开始 And it starts all over again.
这就是人们放弃的地方 但是当你到了五年的时期 到了十年的时期你才真正开始明白 And that's where people quit um and But then when you get that to that five year period, to the ten year period is where really you start to really get it.
在十年的时候 你可以得到更短的时间 And and at ten years you can get this even shorter.
即使是五年 我也见过一些人 马克里奇就是其中一个 你知道 他的学习曲线比我见过的很多人都短 但我也见过很多人上了交易大师课程MTP Even five years, I've seen people, margaretya is one that, you know, his learning curve was shorter than I've seen many, but I've seen lots of people that have come to the master trader program.
我认为我们在降低学习曲线方面做得很好 Um, I think we do a great job at bringing that, compressing that learning curve way down.
所以我想说五年到十年的时间是你真正可以 Um So I would say that five year period to ten year period is really where you can make.
对我个人来说 我干这行十年后一天赚的钱更多 Yeah, for me, personally, I made more money in a day after I was doing this for ten years.
我一天赚的钱比我梦想的一年赚的还多 嗯 所以 I was making more money in a day than I dreamed of making in a year, um, so so.
但你要对自己有耐心 But you got to be patient with yourself.
他有点 And he kind of
意识到这一点 你知道 就像其他事情一样 你必须花时间去学习 realized that this is something that, you know, it's like anything else, you've got to put in the time to learn.
你不会期望成为一名医生或律师 当然也不会期望成为一名出色的审判律师或脑外科医生 也不会期望成为一名棒球运动员或篮球运动员 And, you know, you wouldn't expect to be a doctor or a lawyer, or certainly be a great trial attorney or a brain surgeon, or be a baseball player or a basketball player,
或者任何一个运动员在两年甚至五年的时间里保持着很高的水平 or any athlete that was playing at any high level in two years or even five years?
这将是荒谬的 那么为什么你会认为你应该在这么短的时间内成为一个优秀的股票交易员呢 It would be absurd. So why would you think that you should be a great stock trader in that amount of time?
事实上 这可能比大多数事情都难 所以给自己一点时间 坚持下去 In fact, this is probably much harder than most of those things, so give yourself time, stick with it.
我向你保证 如果你能度过这个难关你将成为一个精英，几乎所有人都退出了他们在真正的好处出现之前就退出了 And I-I assure you that if you can get through that that hump where you're going to be an elite group where almost everybody quits and they quit right before the real benefit happens.
它是真实的 这是真实的 这可能是关于股票评级你能知道的最重要的事情 你知道 是学习曲线 坚持它 有一个更长远的眼光 And it's real. It's real. This is probably the most important thing you can know about stock rating, you know, is is the learning curve, and sticking with it and and having a longer term vision.
没有人问我是怎么做到的 我是怎么做到的 我坚持了一个策略40年 No people asked how I did it, how I did it, but how I did it was, I stuck with one strategy for 40 years.
我就是这么做的 You know, that's how I did it.
我没有乱蹦乱跳 I didn't jump all over the place.
我决定了一个特别的策略 I decided on a particular strategy.
我放弃了所有其他的策略 成为了一件事的专家 I sacrifice all the other strategies and became an expert at one thing.
40年后 我做着和80年代一模一样的事情 And 40 years later, I'm doing the exact same thing I was doing in the 1980s.
没有什么改变 我在世界各地都有交易员 成千上万的交易员 你知道 模仿我 用同样的策略做得很好 Nothing is changed. No. And I have traders all over the world, hundreds and thousands of trade traders that I've, you know, I emulated me, and are doing great too, with the same strategies.
这是永恒的 但你必须投入时间 That's timeless, but you gotta put in the time.
所以我想说可能会就此做一个推文 或者我甚至可能会做一个关于这个的小视频 可能会在某个时候发布给推特上的每个人 So I just want to say that probably going to do a tweet on this, or I might even do a little video on this and maybe post it at some point for for everybody on Twitter.
就是这样 让我们看看这里会发生什么 That's it. Um, let's let's see what happens here.
氮酸碱度很好 We got the n PH is acting great.
让我们看看它是如何闭合的 我们从那里开始 EVH let's see how it closes, and we'll take it from there.
好的 有了这些 我们马上就可以重放了 伙计们 All right. So with that, say, we'll have the replay here momentarily, guys.
还有 呃呃 我刚想说所有未平仓头寸的收益都已经上报了 所以我们没有这方面的信息 And also, uh uh, I was just gonna say the earnings for all the open positions have already been reported, so we don't have anything on that front.
本周是NFL的开幕周末 好好享受比赛吧 And this week is opening weekend for the NFL, so enjoy your games.
是的 我自己也很期待 Yes, I'm looking forward to that myself.
事实上 周四晚上 好了 伙计们 谢谢你们的时间 thursday night, actually. All right, guys, thanks for your time.
马克和马克 我们下周会回来 Mark and Mark, and we'll be back at it next week.
在这里 伙计们 如果时间允许 也可以这周 Here, guys, yeah, or maybe this week, if time permits.
到时候见 谢谢你马克 See you guys there. Thanks Mark.
觉得很好 Think well.