我 I,
所以我们首先要讲的是 so what we're going to actually cover first is really,
非常重要的 really important.
我们将讨论零售交易员和专业交易员之间的差异 We're going to cover the differences between retail traders and professional traders.
但我们要从专业交易员开始 But we're going to start and professional traders,
其中之一就是定义什么是专业交易员以及一个成功的专业交易员现在做什么 one of one which is essentially defining what a professional trader actually is and what a successful professional trader actually does Now.
这是非常重要的 他不应该低估它 This is really important and he should not underestimate it.
原因很简单 从专业交易员的角度来看 Simply because from a professional traders perspective,
我可以明确地告诉你 零售交易员完全误解和误解了专业交易员的工作 I can tell you that I'm categorically that retail traders totally misinterpret and misunderstand what professional traders do.
这就导致了一个大问题 因为从本质上讲 散户交易者的目标就是模仿 Now this leads to a big problem because essentially retail traders their objectives are really to emulate.
这是成功的交易者所做的 It's what successful traders do,
但是要用他们自己的钱 but do it with their own money.
现在这是一个问题 因为它导致零售交易员犯了很多很多很多的错误 走上了错误的交易道路 Now it's a problem because it leads to retail traders to make many many many mistakes and go down the wrong path of trading.
现在 Now,
一旦你了解了什么是专业交易员 以及一个成功的专业交易员是做什么的 once you understand what a professional trader actually is and what a successful professional trader does,
然后你就可以开始模仿了 then you can begin to emulate.
用你自己的钱 With your own money,
什么专业的交易柜台 what the professional trading desk.
现在我们回到舞台上 我希望你们能真正专注于你们的目标 So we're going to go over to the stage now and I want you to really focus on your objectives here.
作为一名零售交易员 你的目标是用自己的钱赚钱 Your objective as a retail trader is to make money using your own money.
在模仿成功的专业交易员的过程中 And in the process to emulate successful professional traders,
因此 therefore,
我们将从定义什么是专业教练开始 我们将在下一节继续 we're going to start by defining exactly what a professional trainer is that we'll move on in the next section.
两个 Two.
一个成功的职业交易员所做的 What a successful professional traders do.
我们到舞台上去吧 我们在另一边见 Let's go on to the stage and I'll see you on the other side.
的吗 The?
我们要做的第一部分是定义 So the first part we're going to do is actually define.
什么专业交易员 What professional traders?
问题 question,
一个男人 what does a guy,
从投资银行到专业交易员 an investment bank to a professional trader?
对冲基金的人会把不同的功能 不同的角色放在哪里 What does the guy at a hedge fund that could have put their quite different functions quite different roles?
对于试图模仿他们的零售交易员来说 这意味着什么 What does it mean for the retail trader who's trying to emulate them?
以及专业交易员和零售交易员之间的差异 And the differences between professional traders and retail traders.
因此 专业交易员就是投资银行 So professional traders are investment banks.
交易员在投资银行90%的时间实际上都花在做市商上 Ninety percent of a trader's time at an investment bank is actually spent Being a market maker.
他们只花了10%的时间 On only ten per cent of their time is actually spent.
用银行的钱交易 Trading the bank's money,
我在用这笔钱 I'm using that money.
试图获利 In an attempt to make a profit.
当你在CNBC上看到 So when you look on CNBC,
电视上的彭博 Bloomberg on the television.
当你看到交易大厅里到处都是人 办公桌前有很多屏幕 And you see that when you see the trading floors with all the guys walking around and lots of screens at their desks,
他们到底在做什么 what are they actually doing?
好吧 Well,
百分之九十的时间 Ninety percent of the time?
他们只是在市场上给客户定价 They're just making prices in the market to clients.
这就是我们作为零售交易员的工作吗 So is that what we do as retail traders?
谁说是的 Who says yes?
显然不是没有多少硬币我们就不关心 It's clearly not without how many coins we don't care.
这里的目标 The objective here,
这样的绅士 like this gentleman.
已经大纲只是为了赚钱 Already outline is to just make money.
用自己的钱去赚钱 Using your own money to make money.
我对做市不感兴趣 I've got no interest in market making.
但是让我们看看这个行业 But let's have a look at the business,
它是如何工作的 how it actually works.
做市商简直就是银行的谋生之道 The market making business is literally the bread and butter of the bank.
它分为两类 And it's split into two categories really.
它是 It's,
这是代理业务 也是风险业务 it's an agency business and a risk business.
好吧 OK,
代理业务是什么意思 what do we mean by an agency business?
你不会给客户带来风险 You're not on risk to the client.
代理业务是真的吗 So the agency business literally?
一个人从养老基金或对冲基金打来电话 A guy calls in from a pension fund or a hedge fund,
他们想要购买资产 and they want to buy an asset.
他们命令银行代表他们购买资产 They give the bank the order to buy the assets on their behalf.
它只是在市场上执行 And it's just executed in the market.
收取佣金 On a Commission is charged.
其他佣金按基点收取 Other commissions are charged in basis points.
在一百的基础上 On one hundred basis,
分数是百分之一 points is one per cent.
现在典型的佣金是多少 So what's a typical Commission these days?
任何人 Anybody,
你觉得怎么样 what do you think?
在代理交易中 他说了五个基本点 On an agency trade who said five basis points,
是的 yeah,
四个或五个基点 four or five basis points.
大约十年前 Around a decade ago,
行业标准约为二千零二千零五为代理业务 the industry standard was about two thousand and two thousand and five for agency business.
所以所有的东西在市场上的数量都是恒定的 So all things being constant in terms of volume in the markets,
在过去的十年中 代理业务下降了8% that agency business is down eight percent in the last decade.
这也是银行举步维艰的原因之一 That's one of the reasons why banks struggle.
这对银行来说是完全无风险的 And this is totally risk free stuff to the bank,
销售人员关注的焦点 the focus rings a sales person takes.
订单 the order,
把它放到系统中 puts it in the system.
它通常会进入一个算法 And it goes through typically into an algorithm.
算法以电子方式执行 And the algorithm executes it electronically.
所以几乎没有人为干预 So there's very little human intervention.
这几乎占了所有做市业务的80% And that's pretty much eighty percent of all market making business.
这告诉我们交易员的时间分配是怎样的呢 So what does that tell you in terms of the time split of a trader?
一家投资银行 An investment bank.
它告诉你什么 What does it tell you?
用时间表示的数字是多少 What was the number in terms of time?
他们花了90%的钱来制造你 They were spending ninety percent market making you.
80%的代理商 And eighty percent of its agency.
所以绝大多数时候他们只是坐在电脑前 So the vast majority of the time they're actually just sitting at computers.
市场上正在执行订单 Watching order is being executed in the market.
我只是在监督他们 I'm just supervising them.
这是投资银行专业交易员的绝大多数工作 That's the vast majority of what professional traders at investment banks do.
很无聊 is pretty boring.
但人们的看法是 情况完全相反 But the perception is that it's totally the opposite.
人们认为交易大厅 People think that trading floors,
所有这些巨大的蜂巢都在活动 噪音很大 每个人都在互相大喊大叫 all these huge hives of activity with lots of noise and everyone shouting at each other.
现在完全相反了 It's just completely the opposite now.
你可以走进高盛 You can walk onto the Goldman Sachs,
摩根士丹利美银美林交易大厅 Morgan Stanley Bank of America Merrill Lynch trading Floor,
它比这个房间安静 and it's quieter than this room.
这是他们大部分时间都在做的事情 That's what they're doing most of the time.
首先 So two things firstly,
不要认为交易员的工作是令人兴奋的 get it out of your head that a trader's job is exciting.
它不是 It's not.
它实际上是相反的 It's literally the opposite.
这是真的 It's really,
真的很无聊 really boring.
其次 And secondly,
如果你是零售贸易商 if you are retail trader,
投资银行的绝大多数伪装 the vast majority of what guise it investment banks do.
如果你想要模仿他们 If you're trying to emulate them,
你没有模仿他们的做法 you're not emulating what they do.
绝大多数时候 The vast majority of the time.
因为你的目标是用自己的钱赚钱 Because your objective is to make money using your own money.
不通过算法执行客户端订单 Not execute client orders through an algorithm.
有百分之二十的造市商是有风险的 There are twenty percent of the market making business is on risk.
所以不是客户打电话到办公室养老基金 So instead of a client calling into the office pension Fund,
对冲基金 hedge fund.
给交易员一个无风险指令 And giving a risk free order to the trader,
他们只是把它塞进了一个算法里 which they just bung in an algorithm.
电话响了 The phone rings.
一个销售人员拿起它 And a sales person picks it up.
然后客户要求一个价格 And the client asks for a price.
的资产 In the asset.
做市商让客户承担风险 And the market maker goes on risk to the client.
这是什么意思 What does that mean?
他们站在另一边 They take the other side.
举个例子 买了1000万美元的苹果股票 So an example here buying ten million dollars of Apple stock.
五百美元 At five hundred dollars.
所以2万份实际上发生了什么 So twenty thousand shares what actually happens.
交易者在另一边做空 The trader is short on the other side.
他们做空了1000万美元的苹果股票 价格是500 So they're short ten million dollars of Apple stock at five hundred.
如果他们买回超过500美元 If they buy back above five hundred,
他们输了 they lose.
这到底是什么意思呢 So what does that actually mean?
好吧 Well,
这意味着风险模型中交易功能的特点是作为银行资产负债表的看门人 it means trait of the trading function in the risk model is to be the gatekeeper of the bank's balance sheet.
因此 交易员利用银行的资产负债表来吸引业务进入公司 So the trader uses the bank's balance sheet to attract business into the company.
所以他们损失了1美元他们在5i1买回了它他们损失了2万美元 So they lose a dollar on that they buy it back at five I one they're losing twenty thousand dollars.
一些多余的 Some excess.
现在 Now,
如果他们的交易 if their trading,
他们不是一次交易一只股票 they're not trading once stock at a time.
通常情况下 Typically,
投资银行的专业交易员可以同时交易50到100只股票 a professional trader in investment bank will be trading between fifty and one hundred stocks at any one time.
已知的是 And what that is known it,
业内人士都知道 known as in the industry,
是一个负选择组合 is a negative selection portfolio.
你会得到50到100个位置 You end up with fifty to one hundred positions.
股票或你交易的资产 In stocks or the assets that you trade,
你根本不想要 which you don't even want.
你这样做的原因是为了将业务带入基金 The reason why you are doing it is to bring business into the fund.
所以你得到了银行的承诺得到了佣金 So you get the commitment of the bank gets the Commission.
这些委托在哪里被标记 And where do those commissions get tagged?
他们被标记在销售桌上 They get tagged on the sales desk.
因此 交易台上的交易员向全世界提供银行的资产负债表 So the traders on the trading desk offer of a bank's balance sheet to the world.
随着流动性 As as liquidity?
然后养老基金和对冲基金进来 利用资产负债表进行交易 And then pension funds and hedge funds come in and use that balance sheet to trade.
然后他们得到了回报 And then they get rewarded.
通过在风险上做大交易 获得丰厚利润 By doing big trades on risk by getting nice juicy,
免费代理命令说谢谢你下周 free agency orders to say thank you next week.
我感谢你上个星期给我带来的风险在这种情况下你知道你可能会赔钱 I thank you for the week before for going on risk to me in a situation where you knew you were probably going to lose money.
做市商的能力是 And the ability of the market maker is really.
定价取决于他们保持佣金的能力 Priced on their ability to keep the Commission.
我们称之为损失率或留存率 And we call that a loss ratio or a retention ratio.
如果1亿美元在一年内流入 So if one hundred million dollars comes in in one year.
你设法保留了八千万美元 And you manage to keep eighty million dollars a bit.
这是一个非常好的表演 Which is a bloody good performance.
你的保留率是百分之八十 Your retention ratio is eighty percent.
这意味着你是一个热门的做市商 Which means you're a ship hot market maker.
所以 So.
那是百分之八十 That's eighty percent of that.
大约80%的时间 about eighty percent of the time agency.
百分之二十的风险 Twenty percent risk.
但有90%的可能性 But it's a ninety percent of the time.
所以只有百分之十 So only ten percent of it.
实际上是在做相反的事情 is spent actually doing what's called while the polar opposite.
自营交易 Trading proprietary.
就像银行所做的一切与硬币有关的自营业务一样 As in everything that the bank does proprietary to doing business with coins,
这就是为什么它被称为自营交易 that's why it's called proprietary trading.
这是完全相反的 And it's the polar opposite.
因为交易员利用银行的资产负债表来做与消极选择投资组合相反的事情 Because the traders are using the bank's balance sheet to do the opposite of a negative selection portfolio.
所以他们想做的是利用银行的资产负债表来弥补他们在业务中损失的2000万美元 So what they're trying to do is use the bank's balance sheet to make back the twenty million dollars that they lost doing business.
所以大部分时间都花在了这上面 So the vast majority of the time is spent.
监督算法 Supervising algorithms.
百分之十 Ten percent.
管理一个积极的选择投资组合 Spent managing a positive selection portfolio.
他们通常都是做多做空的投资组合 And they're typically long short portfolios.
所以他们想持有更长时间的股票 So they want to be longer stock,
他们想确保库存 they want to be sure to stock,
他们建立并运行投资组合 they build that portfolio and they run it.
通常 And typically,
这是一个三个月一次的时间范围 it's a once a three month time horizon.
这是典型的男性业务 And this is what a typical guys business.
所以如果你走到一个在投资银行的交易台的人面前说 So if you just walk up to a guy on a trading desk at an investment bank and say,
你做什么生意 what do you trade?
这是我们的行业 This is our trade,
X的前100只SMP500只股票 the top one hundred SMP five hundred stocks for X,
YZ银行 Y Z Bank.
这可能就是企业未来的样子 This is what the business will probably look like.
在一个典型的财政年度中 委托产生了5000万美元 In a typical fiscal year commissioned generated fifty million.
留存率为70% With a retention ratio of seventy percent.
同样的佣金 And then the same amount of Commission coming in,
粗略地说 roughly speaking.
自营交易账户的风险敞口 Exposure in the proprietary trading account,
试着赚百分之二十 trying to make twenty percent.
然后是净损失率 And then the net loss ratio.
最终总收入是45 营业额是50 So you end up with a total revenue of forty five on a turnover of fifty.
这是一个相当不错的表现 Which is a pretty good performance,
就是这样 that's it.
这是不错的一年 That's a decent year.
然后银行会给交易员一笔可自由支配的奖金 The bank then gives that trader a discretionary bonus,
所以他们只是从稀释剂中提取一个数字 so they just pull a number out of thinner.
它不是固定的 It's not fixed,
它只是编造出来的 it's just made up,
所以当你签了一份为投资银行工作的合同 so when you sign a contract to go to work for an investment bank,
合同上写着你的奖金 you'll contract literally says your bonuses.
由银行决定 at the discretion of the bank.
你有自己的奖金会议 直到你感冒的那一天 You have your bonus meetings leading into the day you'll get cold,
然后你被叫进去 然后被抓住 and then you get called in and gets hold.
这一天是每个人在一年中期待或害怕的一天 And that's the day that everybody in the year looks forward to or dreads.
基本工资支付 Basic salary is paid,
这通常比你的奖金还少 which is usually less than your bonus.
如果你拿到的奖金比基本工资还少 If you get paid a bonus less than your basic salary,
你不应该工作 you shouldn't be working.
打击 Hit.
投资银行业 The investment banking industry.
然后是间接成本 And then an overhead cost,
因为它花费了银行100万美元 because it cost the bank a million dollars going to sit there.
总利润归于交易者 So total profit attributed to a trader.
大概是这样的 might look something like that.
在我生活的这些日子里 These days in my day,
是在双人床上 it was in this double.
所以 So,
真的 really,
我们在这里学到了什么 what have we learned here?
好吗 Well?
模仿专业交易员 In emulating professional traders.
一家投资银行 An investment bank.
你并没有真正试图模仿澳大利亚作为一个做市商所做的一切 You're not really trying to emulate at all what the professional Australia does as a market maker,
作为一名零售交易员 你用自己的钱赚钱的目标更符合他们的积极选择投资组合 your objective as a retail trader to make money with your own money is more aligned with their positive selection portfolio.
所以他们所做的事情有百分之九十 So ninety percent of everything they do.
这与你的兴趣无关 It has got nothing to do with your interest.
除非你想去 Unless you want to go,
除非你想去银行工作 unless you want to go and work for a bank.
成为一个监督电子订单的人 And become one of the guys that supervises electronic orders.
但最重要的是 But most importantly.
最重要的事情之一 One of the most important things.
你会看到我们的贸易银行或投资银行都有基本工资 You'll see that our trade or an investment bank has a basic salary.
我想说的是永远永远不要忘记 I'll make a statement are never ever ever forget it.
世界上每个职业交易员都有基本工资 Every single professional trader in the world has a basic salary.
每一个专业的商人 Every professional trader.
如果他们不这样做 If they don't,
他们被隐藏他们的公司拖过去了 they're being lugged over by the company that's hide them.
如果他们在自营交易中没有赚到钱 And if they make no money in the proprietary trading,
癌症 the cancer,
他们没有奖金 they don't get a bonus.
如果他们赚钱 If they make money,
他们有奖金 they get a bonus.
我们稍后再讨论这个问题 We'll come back to this later.
基本工资的问题 The issue of a bit of a basic salary.
那么 对冲基金的专业交易员是怎么做的呢 So what does a professional trader at a hedge fund?
首先 First,
首先要保护投资者的资金 things first to protect the capital of their investors.
通过在市场中赚钱 市场不断上升 By making money in markets go up and markets that goes on.
但专业交易员是对冲基金 通常被称为PMS投资组合经理 But professional traders are hedge funds usually called PMS portfolio managers.
为什么他们管理投资组合是显而易见的 Why pretty obvious they managed portfolios?
他们晚上回家时不会没有位置 They don't go home at night with no positions.
第二天走进去 walk in the next day,
延长市场时间 然后在下午3点打烊 出去喝一杯 get massively longer market and then close out at three in the afternoon and go for drinks.
它们经营的投资组合 They're running portfolios,
他们一夜之间 they take overnight,
风险 risk.
时间范围可以是1到18个月 And the time horizon can be anything from one to eighteen months,
通常 usually.
但通常是三个月 三个月的时间范围 But it's usually three a three month time horizon.
没有做市活动 There is no market making activity.
但它们的功能与投资银行的自营交易功能极为相似 But their function is extremely similar to the prop trading function at an investment bank.
积极的选择组合 The positive selection portfolio.
唯一的不同是他们经营的业务结构 The only difference is the structure of the business that they operated,
基本的培训 essentially the training.
这就是他们做事的方式 That's the way they do things,
他们选择他们想买的东西的过程 the processes they go through to choose what they want to buy.
简而言之 In short.
完全一样吗 are exactly the same?
世界顶级对冲基金经理中有很多人来自高盛 It's no coincidence why there are so many of the world's top hedge fund managers are X Goldman Sachs,
X X,
摩根士丹利(MorganStanley) Morgan Stanley.
他们过去都是投资银行的自营交易员 然后他们继续做着同样的工作 They've all been prop traders at investment banks in the past and then they've gone on to do the same function.
有了外部投资者的资金 With outside investors money,
不是银行的钱 not the bank's money.
投资银行的人在利用银行的资本本质上就是股东的钱 The guys at investment banks are utilizing the banks' capital so essentially that shareholders' money,
他们的上市公司 their public companies.
让我们来回顾一下对冲基金的一些基本知识 So let's go through us through some basics of a hedge fund.
但它为什么被称为对冲基金呢 But why is it called a hedge fund?
因为他们使用对冲风险的策略 Because they use strategies that hedge at risk.
所以他们可以在市场上下波动时赚钱 So they can make money when the market goes up and down.
但它是如何构成的呢 But how is it structured?
它只是高净值人士和机构投资的投资工具 It's just an investment vehicle for high net worth and institutions to invest.
它 it.
你有一个在岸的管理公司和一个离岸的控股公司 And you have an onshore management company and an offshore holding company.
关于管理公司 On the management company,
费用一度是百分之二的管理费 charges are once a two per cent management fee.
管理资金 To manage the money?
每年的表演费 On an annual performance fee.
关于他们使用积极选择投资组合中的资本所赚的钱 On the money they make using the capital in their positive selection portfolio.
但对冲基金的有趣之处在于 当他们推销高净值资产和机构时 这是他们推销的一部分 But what's very interesting about hedge funds is that when they go and pitch high net worth and institutions as part of their pitch.
其中一个条件 And one of the conditions.
为此 For that,
投资者 investors have.
投资基金是在给定的年份 To invest in the funds is that in a given year.
关于演出费用 On the performance fee.
我们必须将至少一半的业绩再投资于该基金 At least half of the performance we must be reinvested in the fund.
对冲基金不收取业绩费 No hedge fund charges are performance fee,
拿了他们的钱就跑了 takes their money and runs.
他们必须将其中至少一半进行再投资 They have to reinvest at least half of it.
我们来看一个典型的对冲基金结构的有趣例子 So let's have a look at a typical hedge fund structure has fun example.
在一个典型的年份里会发生什么 Of what may happen in a typical year.
假设他们持有1亿美元的投资者资金作为管理资产 So let's say they are holding a one hundred million dollars of investor money as assets under management.
他们有50个职位 And they've got fifty positions.
25 twenty five long,
二十岁 twenty,
五短 five short.
他们有自己的位置限制 And they have a self imposed position limit,
所以 so no,
投资组合中的头寸不能超过2% no position can be bigger than two percent in the portfolio.
所以没有什么能超过200万美元 So nothing can be over two million dollars.
这是一个非常多元化的对冲基金 That's a very diverse hedge fund.
他们没有冒太大的风险 They're not taking a great deal of risk.
但我们假设去年他们投资组合的回报率是20% But let's say last year they made a twenty percent return on a portfolio with mid teens.
波动 volatility.
这是一个很好的对冲基金 That's a good hedge fund.
如果他们的差异如此之大 If their diverse that much,
他们生产20%的牛奶 they make twenty percent and they get milk,
它在会议 it's on meetings.
波动 Volatility.
他们做得很好 They're doing really well.
他们今年过得很好 They've had a good year.
他们收取2%的管理费 They charge a two percent management fee.
根据年初的目标 Based on the aim at the beginning of the year.
所以在岸管理公司收取200万美元的费用 So the onshore management company takes two million dollars of fees.
和四百万的表现 And four million performance in that situation.
但这400万美元中有200万用于再投资 But two million of that four million is reinvested.
那么会发生什么呢 So what happens?
很明显 It's pretty obvious.
如果他们亏损了 他们不会得到绩效费 They don't get paid a performance fee if they lose money,
他们会得到管理费 they'll get the management fee.
首先 So first of all,
我们实际做的管理是什么 what does the management that we actually do?
它是什么 What's it for?
他会猜一猜 And he will take a guess.
完全正确 Exactly.
在岸管理费将用于支付基金的所有基础设施 The onshore management fee goes to pay for all of the infrastructure of the funds,
包括办公室里每个人的基本工资 including basic salaries of everybody in the office.
这是所有职业交易员都有基本工资的第一件事 That's the first thing all professional traders have a basic salary.
我苏打水 I'd soda.
对冲基金经理 Hedge fund managers.
但是一个人的表现如何呢 But what about the performance of one?
他们今年过得不好 They have a bad year.
年景好的时候他们拿不到工资 They don't get paid in a good year.
他们做什么 What do they do?
他们把钱再投资到基金里 They reinvest their money into the fund.
所以乐趣增加了 So the fun grows.
那么 如果散户想要效仿成功的对冲基金经理 他们该怎么做呢 So what a retail traders have to do if they're trying to emulate successful hedge fund managers?
投资自己的钱 reinvest their money.
所以当他们赚钱的时候 So when they make money.
他们承担更多的风险 They take more risk.
当他们亏损时 When they lose money,
他们不会增加接触 they don't increase their exposure.
现在很明显了 It's pretty obvious now.
那么 为什么我们要告诉交易员做完全相反的事情呢 So why do we tell traders do the total opposite?
保证他们的利润 Secure their profits.
是的 Yeah,
所以他们把钱从交易账户中取出 so they are taking their money out of their trading account.
这是一个典型的行为 That's a typical behavior here.
对冲基金经理的圣杯 The holy grail for a hedge fund manager.
就是增加基金 is to grow the fund.
假设从1亿到50亿 Let's say from one hundred million in year one to five billion in year,
六 six.
以一个标准的行业标准衡量 On a standard industry metric.
申请出售该对冲基金 is applied to sell the hedge fund.
基金将会有价值因为他们管理着50亿的资产 There'll be there'll be a value to the funds because they've got five billion of assets under management.
有人知道是什么吗 Does anybody know what it is?
资产管理公司和对冲基金的标准行业指标 The standard industry metric for asset managers and hedge funds.
这是管理资产的十分之一 It's one tenth of assets under management.
他们会以5亿卖掉基金 So they'll sell about fund for five hundred million.
他们会一直把自己的钱放在基金里并不断增加 And they'll have their own money in the fund of the whole time and be increasing there.
一直握着 holding the whole time.
所以他们从1000亿增长到50亿带走了5亿 So they grow that from one hundred to five billion and walk away with five hundred million.
这是一个成功的对冲基金经理 That's that's a successful hedge fund manager.
所以 如果你的目标是赚钱 你应该从中得到一些信息 So you should really be taking a few messages from this if your objective here is to make money.
没有人进入市场是为了赔钱 Which it is no one goes into the market to lose money.
我们都有这样的想法 我们会成为超级明星 赚很多钱 We all go in with the idea that we're going to become superstars and make loads of money.
所以我们的目标是用我们自己的钱来赚钱 So the objective here is to make money using our own money.
从这里 So out of this,
零售 retail,
交易者应该记住几个非常重要的信息 traders should take several really important messages.
对冲基金经理使用自己的钱 Hedge fund managers use their own money.
我接受外部投资者的钱投资银行交易员的怀疑 I'll accept outside investor money investment bank traders' doubts.
这对零售交易员意味着什么呢 So what does that mean for retail trader?
你的目标与对冲基金经理的目标要一致得多 Your objective is a hell of a lot more aligned with that of a hedge fund manager.
自营功能和对冲基金经理都做多做空 The prop function and hedge fund managers they both hold long short,
多样化的投资组合 具有相当中期和长期的投资期限 diverse portfolios with a fairly medium terms a longterm time horizon.
很明显 Obviously,
这取决于你在哪家公司工作 以及你的投资目标是什么 depending on what company you work for and what the investment mandate is.
他们都有基本工资 They both get paid a basic salary.
这是非常重要的 That's really important.
因此 许多散户交易员认为交易是为了赚钱 So many retail traders think trading is for income.
它不是 It isn't.
人们以前一定见过 People must have seen it before.
你得到的是混乱 where you get the messy,
你会收到邮件 you get the emails.
在国际外汇市场上交易 你一个月可以赚一万美元 You can make ten thousand dollars a month for trading the international forex markets.
所以人们这样做 So people do it,
他们开了一个交易账户 they open a trading account.
一百大 one hundred grand.
第一个月他们赚了一万 So in month one they make ten grand.
他们拿出一万美元 they take out the ten grand.
他们花费它 They spend it.
在上个月 In month,
二 他们损失了一万 two they lose ten grand.
然后他们带了10个爷爷 剩下8个 他们花了1万 Then they take ten granddad and they're left with eighty and they spend ten grand.
那么他们在做什么呢 So what are they doing?
当他们赚钱的时候 When they make money.
当他们损失钱的时候 他们会从交易账户中取出钱 They're taking money out of their trading account when they lose money they are taking,
他们正在冒更大的风险 they are taking more risk.
他们做的和专业交易员完全相反 They're doing the total opposite to what professional traders do.
你应该永远永远 You should never ever ever.
作为一名零售交易员 as a retail trader,
从你的交易账户中提取一笔收入 take an income from your trading account.
这不是一个收入策略 It's not an income strategy.
如果你想要一系列股票的收益策略 并持有10年 股息收益率为4% If you want an income strategy by a bunch of stocks and hold them for a decade that pay a four per cent dividend yield.
不要把房子买下来租给别人 Don't buy a flat and rent it out to somebody.
他们将通过政府债券支付给你利息 They'll pay you an income going by a government bond that will pay you a coupon.
交易不是为了收入 Trading is not for income.
每个专业交易员都知道 这就是他们收取管理费的原因 这样他们就能拿到基本工资 Every professional trader knows that that's why they charge a management fee so they can get paid a basic salary.
这个行业非常 And the industry is very,
很有竞争力 very competitive.
它是如此有竞争力 It's so competitive.
在对冲基金行业 In the hedge fund industry,
人们为了有限的资本进入并投资高净值和机构 people going in and pitching high net worth and institutions for a limited amount of capital.
竞争如此激烈 以至于他们都要求收取管理费 It's so competitive that all of them still ask for a management fee.
那么我们认为他们为什么会这样做呢 So why do we think they do that?
因为他们知道交易不是为了收入 Because they know that trading is not for income?
他们的目标是增加他们的客户 Their objective is to grow their account.
尽可能的大 So as big as possible,
这样他们就可以卖掉基金 so they can sell the fund.
他们不想从基金中取出任何钱 So they don't want to take any money out of the fund.
他们希望尽可能多地进行再投资 They want to reinvest it as much as they can,
因为他们想要一个尽可能大 尽可能快的退出 because they want an exit for as big as possible as quickly as possible.
这是有道理的 So that makes sense.
因此 对冲基金经理的做法与大多数散户交易员完全相反 So a hedge fund managers are literally doing the total opposite to what most retail traders do.
当他们赚钱的时候 When they make money,
再投资 reinvest.
失去金钱 Lose money,
不要增加你的风险 don't increase your risk.
让我们来看看我们提到的一些主要差异 So let's go through some of the main differences that we have touched on.
他们中的一些人已经 some of them already.
专业交易员和零售交易员之间的差异 Differences between professional traders and retail traders.
所以如果你要比较自己或者模仿最优秀最成功的专业交易员 So if you're going to compare yourself or try to emulate the best and most successful professional traders.
你必须效仿他们的策略 You've got to emulate their strategies.
可能是非常基本的水平 are probably very basic level.
我们已经讲过一些了 We've been through some of them.
你必须有基本工资 You've got to have a basic salary,
先做点别的事情 doing something else to begin with.
否则 Otherwise,
你只是不会增加你的账户 you're just not going to grow your account.
因为你将被迫从你的交易账户中提取收入 Because you'll be forced to take an income from your trading account.
它是终端 And it'll be terminal.
就会变成0 You'll just go to zero.
不是很快就是很慢 Either very quickly or slowly.
但是在某一点你会是零 But you will be at zero at some point.
如果你那样做 if you do that.
以及在赚钱的同时承担更多风险的原则 And the principle of taking more risk when you make money.
当你亏钱的时候 我承担的风险更小 I'm taking less risk when you lose money.
从头开始 From the ground up,
这是很基本的东西 that's pretty basic stuff,
但数以百万计的人做错了 but millions of people get it wrong.
每年 Every year.
在租金上也有重复 And they've got its repeat in rents.
每一年 Every year,
同样的方法趋于0 the same approach go to zero.
重新开始 start again.
把一万美元记在你的交易账户里 Put ten grand in your trading account lose.
它趋于0 It goes to zero.
六个月后 Six months later.
再给一万元重新开始再来一次 To start again with another ten grand do it again?
谁也学不会 No one ever learns.
问题是 这是由于行业中存在的所有错误信息和利益冲突造成的 The problem is this due to all the misinformation and conflict of interest that exists in the industry.
这就是为什么人们会那样做 This is why people behave like that.
我们已经接触了一个我已经接触过的人 So we've touched someone I'm already,
这是很明显的 which is pretty obvious.
专业交易员的工作是什么 What's a professional trader actually does.
你会发现这个行业里有很多人都有利益冲突 You'll get tons of people in the industry who have got the conflict of interest,
向你展示或试图说服你 专业交易者以一种特殊的方式接近市场 showing you or trying to convince you that professional traders approach the markets in a particular way.
当他们实际上没有 When they actually don't,
而那个告诉你这个的人从来都不是一个专业的交易者 and that person who's telling you that has never been a professional trader.
那么他们是怎么知道的呢 So how would they know?
有很多错误的信息错误的信息是由于利益冲突 There's a lot of misinformation and the misinformation is due to a conflict of interest.
那么是什么呢 So what is?
的区别 The difference,
方法是什么 what are the approach,
差异呢 differences?
所以对冲基金经理投资银行专业交易员具有积极的选择组合 So hedge Fund Manager Investment Bank professional trader with a positive selection portfolio.
海岸投资组合一至三个月 Longshore portfolio one to three months.
零售商人 Retail trader,
这种方法通常是定向的 the approach is typically directional.
一天的交易 day trading.
在二进制的情况 Around binary situations.
应对风险的方法是什么 What's the approach to risk?
多样性和风险管理 Diversity and risk management.
对冲基金经理的工作 甚至是 The job of the hedge fund manager and even the guy at the?
投资银行在自营交易中的功能 Investment bank in the prop trading function.
他们的工作 Their job,
首先 也是最重要的 first and foremost,
是为了保护那些钱 is to protect that money.
然后寻求成长 And then seek to grow.
它 it.
所以首先要保护它 So by first protecting it,
有什么要求 what's required,
真正的多元化和适当的风险管理 real diversity and proper risk management?
你会在投资银行或对冲基金的办公桌上听到所有的谈论 All you'll hear talked about on a desk at investment bank or at a hedge fund.
是风险 Is the risk.
这里的风险是什么 What's the risk here?
你能承受最大的风险吗 Are you on top of your risk?
有一天我们会失去什么 What can we make all losing one day?
随着散户风险的极度集中 With the retail trader risk is extremely concentrated.
当一个专业交易员看着一本零售交易员的交易书时 So concentrated when a professional trader looks at a retail traders trading book,
他们无法理解为什么有的人只有两三个或四个职位 they can't understand why somebody would only have two or three or four positions.
其精神失常 Its lunacy.
他们看着它 就是不明白为什么 They look at it and they just can't understand why.
所以有些人可能会很长 So someone might be long.
SMP500可能有一个很长的欧元 The SMP five hundred might have a long euro,
U U.
美元头寸和空头 s dollar position and short.
美元兑日圆的头寸 A dollar yen position.
但也没有多样性 But also you got no diversity.
你只需要在这一天上下波动 你的书就会失去控制 You're just going to be up or down on the day and your book is out of control.
你无法控制将要发生的事情 You can't control what's going to happen,
所以职业交易员永远不会这么做 so professional traders will just never ever do that.
返回的方法是什么 What's the approach to return?
专业交易员正在寻求长期稳定的回报 Professional traders are seeking longterm consistent returns.
我们知道 因为对冲基金经理的目标是管理一个UN资产 We know that because the objective is that of the hedge fund managers to get a U N assets under management,
没人会投资对冲基金或交易员如果他们一个月涨10%下个月跌10% no one's going to invest in the hedge fund or that trader if they're up ten per cent one month down ten percent the next month.
而且他们从来不赚钱 and they just never make money.
你的回报是一致的 You are consistent returns.
随着时间的推移平滑 Smoothed over time.
显示出强劲的业绩记录 Which show a strong track record.
和行为 And behavior.
在投资组合的好时期和坏时期 In good times and bad times in the portfolio.
人们认出你 Where people recognize you,
无论顺境逆境 都要做正确的事 do the right thing in good and bad times.
所以你表现出良好的行为记录 So you show good behavior in your track record.
所以当你赚钱的时候 So when you make money,
你知道你在赚钱 你增加了你的风险 you know you're making money and you increase your risk.
当你亏损的时候 And when you lose money,
你做了正确的事情来降低风险 you do the right things to reduce risk.
如果你在多年的平稳回报中证明了这一点 And if you show that over a number of years with smooth returns.
你的工作就简单多了 You're gonna have a much easier job,
投资1亿美元给你的对冲基金 pitching somebody for one hundred million to invest in your hedge fund.
然后 Then,
如果你到处都是 if you're just all over the place.
零售商人 Retail trader,
一个月的好 一个月的坏 损失了他们所有的钱 polar opposite a good month up massively a bad month loses all their money.
或者一半的钱 Or half the money.
结果是什么 What's the outcome?
对于专业交易员来说 For the professional trader,
这一切都关乎资本保全和增长 it's all about capital preservation and growth.
卖掉基金 或者获得更高的费用或更大的奖金 Sell the fund or get higher fees or bigger bonuses.
50亿的2%是一大笔钱 Two percent on five billion is a lot of money.
零售交易员的结果是什么 What's the outcome for a retail trader?
只有首都地区的资本损失资产为零 Just capital District Capital destruction assets goes to zero.
明年再试一次 Try again next year.
一个专业的商人 A professional trader.
通过确保有基本工资来保证收入和最低生活水平的方法是什么 What's the approach that income and sure your minimum standard of living by making by making sure you have a basic salary?
零售商人 Retail trader,
在正常的日常工作中全职或兼职工作 working full or part time in a normal day job.
但他们通过交易获得额外收入 But they trade for extra income.
也就是说 如果你用10万美元开户 Which means if you open your account with one hundred thousand dollars.
即使你在十年后表现很好 Even if you're good in ten years' time,
你还有10万美元 you'll still have one hundred thousand dollars.
因为你拿的是薪水 Because you are taking a salary.
在增长方面 In terms of growth,
专业交易者在赢的时候会加注 professional traders will add when winning.
我减少了 I am reduced,
减少损失时的风险 reduce risk when losing.
零售交易员在赢的时候获得收益 在输的时候寻求风险 What happens to the retail trader take income when winning and seek risk when losing.
所以要冒更大的风险 So taking more risk.
结果是什么 What's the result?
对冲基金经理将增加管理下的资产 Hedge fund managers will grow their assets under management.
我们告诉交易员培训你不能像以前一样零回报 We tell trader training you can't go to zero outcome the same as before.
这是一页纸上的不同之处 So here's the differences on one page.
预期 Expectations,
管理 management.
所有的职业交易员都以慢慢致富为目标 All professional traders aimed to get rich slowly.
化合物的回报 Compound returns,
所有的职业交易员都追求一致 all professional traders seek consistent,
平滑的风险 smoothed risk,
调整后返回加剧 adjusted returns compounded.
我们来做一下 So let's do that.
让我们做一些复合数学 let's do a bit of compound math.
如果你开一个有一万英镑的交易账户 If you open a trading account with ten thousand pounds.
年 In year,
一个 one.
然后你用那一万英镑来让你拿 And you use that ten thousand pounds to enable you to take.
四万英镑的曝光率 Forty thousand pounds worth of exposure.
如果你每年有25%的回报 If you've got a twenty five percent return each year,
平均每月2% so call it two percent a month on average.
随着时间的推移平滑 Smoothed over time.
你会在接下来的几个月里 There will be months where you lose,
但如果你一个月平均只赚2% but if you make an average of two percent a month.
你的账户是哪一年变成一百万的 In what year does your account become a million?
谁知道 Anyone know.
因为任何人都曾经在电子表格中做过 Because anyone ever done it in a spreadsheet worked it out.
世界第八大奇观 The eighth wonder of the world,
复合 compounding?
爱因斯坦确实称它为世界第八大奇迹 Einstein did actually call it the eighth wonder of the world.
大概是一年中三分之二的时间 It's about two thirds of the way through year,
七 seven.
所以你可以以平均2%的速度每个月增加1万磅 到年底你就可以增加到100多万磅 So you can grow ten thousand pounds at two percent a month on average to over a million by the end of year.
七 Seven.
如果你只是不断地进行再投资 而从不获取收入 If you just keep reinvesting and never taking an income.
但有一件事是可以保证的 如果你的月收入是2000英镑 But one thing is guaranteed if you take an income of two thousand pounds a month,
你还是10岁 you'll still be at ten.
否则就等于0 Or you'll be at zero.
你有两种选择 你可以这样做 So you've got two choices you either do it that way,
专业的交易才是真正的方式 the professional trade away the real way,
或者你做了零售交易 只是从来没有变得更富有 or you do it the retail trade away and just never ever ever become wealthier.
我想我们不需要再谈这个了 I don't think we need to go over this.
而你没有从零售贸易中获得收入 while you had no income from trading retail traders.
想要收入 Want to take income?
专业交易者不 professional traders don't.
他们保证自己的基本工资 They ensure their basic salaries?
所以他们确保 So they make sure.
他们有最低的生活标准 They get that minimum living standards.
从基本工资开始 From making a basic salary.
因此 回顾一下 So to recap,
我们知道它们的区别 and we know what the differences are.
大多数的散户交易者只是在赔钱 因为他们所做的与所有成功的专业交易者所做的完全相反 The majority of retail traders just lose money because they do the opposite of what all successful professional traders do in all in all ways.
方法风险收入 Approach risk income,
每件事每件事都是相反的 everything everything is the opposite.
好吧 Okay,
我们会回来的 so we'll come back.
这是专业交易员和零售交易员 that was professional traders and retail traders.
我猜 And I guess,
我们在这里学到了什么 what have we learnt here?
好吧 Well,
我认为我们在这里学到的是专业交易员的本质 I think what we've learned here in terms of what professional traders actually are.
有一个非常大的 Is that there is a very big,
误解或曲解 misguided perception or misinterpretation,
什么是专业交易员 以及他们实际在做什么 of what professional traders are and what they actually do.
我认为零售贸易社区的事情 I think the thing that retail trading community.
我们需要澄清一些关于专业交易员目标的事情 We need to clarify quite a few things in terms of the professional traders objectives,
因为从本质上讲 because essentially,
作为零售交易员 你是在用自己的钱走路 as retail traders you're treading with your own money.
你试图模仿成功的专业交易员 试图用自己的钱赚钱 And you're trying to emulate the successful professional traders and trying to make money with your own money.
好吧 Well,
似乎我们可以忘记投资银行的那些家伙了 it seems like we can forget about guys at investment banks.
唯一能从投资银行的人身上拿走的东西就是他们有基本工资 The only thing to take away from the guys at investment banks is that they have a basic salary,
他们做的其他事情 the rest of the stuff they do.
这和零售交易员的目的不一样 It's just not in the same objective as the retail trader.
投资银行用银行的钱进行交易 Investment banks are trading with the banks' money when they're doing.
自营交易是指银行内部所有与硬币交易有关的业务 proprietary trading has in all business within the bank that's proprietary to doing business with coins.
绝大多数时间 我们说的是百分之一百九十九的时间 是投资银行的专业交易员 The vast majority of the time and we're talking one thousand nine hundred ninety percent of the time of a professional trader at an investment bank.
他们用硬币训练 They are training with coins,
因此 要么代表客户 要么在客户的另一边交易 用银行的钱承担风险 so either on behalf of the client or there trading on the other side of the client and taking risk using the bank's money.
在另一边 On the other side.
对散户来说 没有什么是相似的 Nothing to retail trader does is in any way similar.
这些人的日常活动不是百分之八十到九十 so these guys in terms of not eighty to ninety percent of their day to day activities,
零售交易员 你不需要考虑它 Retail traders you just don't need to think about it.
他们做的唯一一件事 The only thing that they do,
和自营交易类似 which is similar he is proprietary trading,
用银行的钱来弥补客户业务的损失 which is using the bank's money to make back the losses from doing client business.
在他们的方法中在自营交易中 In their approach in terms of in terms of prop trading.
很明显 这就是我们的做法 因为这种方法与对冲基金经理非常相似 That's what we're obviously because that approach is very similar to a hedge fund managers.
大多数对冲基金经理最初的起步都很不顺利 这并非巧合 It's no coincidence that most hedge fund managers are originally starts off out in less than bite.
对容器银行的人的自营交易功能非常类似于对冲基金经理的方法 The proprietary trading function over the guy in the vessel bank is very similar to the approach of a hedge fund manager.
但请记住一件事 环球银行的人 But remember one thing the guy in the Universal Bank.
他们所做的百分之八十的工作与零售交易员无关 Eighty ninety percent of what they do is irrelevant for retail traders.
第二 他们有基本工资 And the second thing they get a basic salary.
对冲基金经理的不同之处在于 他们把自己的钱放在了基金里 Hedge fund managers are different in that they have their own money in the fund.
在目标上与散户交易员非常相似 因为对冲基金经理希望创造财富 Very similar to retail traders in their objectives because a hedge fund manager wants to create wealth.
但是用一种完全不同的方法 But doing it in a very different way.
这与我们告诉交易员的方式截然不同 A very different way to the way we tell traders would expect.
首先 Firstly,
他们收取管理费 they're charging a management fee.
所以他们把自己的钱放在基金里 So they put their own money in their funds.
他们接受外部投资者的资金 And they accept outside investors money.
他们收取管理费吗 Are they charging management fees?
有些人会说他们接受外部投资者的原因 Some would say the reason why they accept outside investors.
钱是他们可以收取管理费 所以他们可以得到基本工资 Money is so they can charge a management fee so they can get a basic salary.
管理费包括所有的基础设施和办公室人员的基本工资 The management fees Hays for all of the infrastructure and basic salaries of the office and the people.
在对冲基金 At the hedge fund,
一般来说 基本工资管理费是1%到2% typically a basic salary management fee would be one to two per cent.
美国资产管理公司管理的资产 On assets under management at a U.
N N.
除此之外 And then on top of that,
如果他们对这种表现收费 if theyre charging that performance,
我 me.
通常情况下 Typically,
绩效费将是任何来自外部投资者的资金的20% a performance fee would be twenty percent of any money made from outside investors.
我们得到了什么 So what have we got here?
我们有基本工资 可以保护对冲基金经理的财富 We've got a basic salary which protects the downside wealth of the hedge fund manager.
它保护了它们的缺点 It protects their downside,
因此 它保护了对冲基金经理不会变穷 so it protects the hedge fund manager from becoming poorer.
我们有什么好处呢 What have we got on the upside?
我们有业绩费 对冲基金经理收取业绩费 We've got the performance fee where the hedge fund manager charges the performance.
我们通常有20%的时间去爱 we typically twenty percent to become love.
你 You.
现在 Now,
他们是如何变得更富有的 how did they actually become wealthier?
好吧 Well,
他们所做的就是与外部投资者签订合同 what they do is they have contracts with their outside investors.
通常情况下 他们的外部投资者会与基金经理签订合同 将至少一半的管理费返还一半的业绩费 And typically their outside investors will make the manager contract to putting at least half the management fee back in half the performance fee.
道歉会将一半的业绩反馈给对冲基金 Apologies half the performance feed back into the hedge fund.
回到超级战略 Back in super strategy.
这是什么意思呢 So what does that mean?
好吧 Well,
让我们来看一个我的经理的例子 let's go through an example where I had my manager.
指控 Charges.
百分之二的管理费和百分之二十的宿舍费 two per cent management fee and twenty percent of dormitory.
假设 And let's say,
例如 for example,
到你的钱 into your money.
好 Well.
如果你投入100 一年就会变成120 If you put in a hundred and it becomes a hundred and twenty in one year,
假设这是1亿U so let's say that's one hundred million U.
年代美元 S dollars.
对冲基金经理一年赚200亿 And the hedge fund manager makes twenty billion dollars in one year.
好吧 Well,
如果对冲基金经理对你说 if the hedge fund manager came to you and said,
我将向你收取20%的表演费 I'm going to charge you a twenty per cent performance fee,
四十亿美元 four billion dollars.
我不会把所有的钱都拿走 I'm not going to take all of that money.
我只是比基金更环保 I'm just not green less than the fund's.
好吧 Well,
你不会很开心的 you're not going to be very happy.
你不会高兴的 因为它给你的信息是对冲基金经理不愿意投资于他们自己的策略 You're not going to be happy because it gives you the message that the hedge fund manager is not willing to invest in their own strategy.
那就违背了整个目的 That defeats the whole purpose.
这里的目的是让每个人 The whole purpose here is is that everybody,
如果所有人都变得更加富有 if everybody becomes wealthier together,
而且 对冲基金经理的制胜策略是如此之好 以至于外部投资者都想投资于此 and that the hedge fund managers winning strategy is so good that outside investors want to invest in it.
因此 Therefore,
如果真的很好 if it's so good,
为什么这个人不投资于自己的策略 why is the person not investing in their own strategy?
好吧 Well,
这没有任何意义 it doesn't make any sense.
通常情况下 他们会签订投资合同 So typically what will happen is they'll be contracted to invest.
至少一半的业绩回馈给基金 At least half of the performance feed back into the fund.
所以这400万美元或20亿美元将被再投资 So out of that four million dollars or two billion dollars will be reinvested.
如果对冲基金经理不给我做呢 Now what happens if the hedge fund manager doesn't make mine?
所以1亿仍然是1亿 So the hundred million stays at a hundred million.
好吧 Well,
很明显没有表演费 it's pretty obvious there is no performance fee.
陷阱对对冲基金经理来说 没有再投资的超表现 Pitfall There's no reinvestment ultra performance me so well to hedge fund managers.
他们是否进行了投资并增加了他们的交易账户 do they invested themselves and increase their trading accounts?
因为对冲基金 Because a hedge fund,
从本质上讲 essentially,
如果你这样看 if you look at it in that way,
它是会计专业的 it is a trained in accounting.
他们在赚钱的时候投资自己 他们不投资 They invest in themselves when they're making money and they don't invest,
但他们没有赚钱 but they're not making money.
我们的目标显然是每年都要赚钱 And the objective is obviously to make money every year.
但是每一年 But every year,
如果他们通过增加管理下的资产来赚钱 if they're making money to increase their assets under management,
这对散户意味着什么 what does this mean for retail traders simple?
你不会从你的癌症交易中获得收入 你会在你的一生中增加你的交易账户 You don't take income from your trade in the cancer you grow your trading account over your lifetime.
直到退休 Until retirement.
现在考虑相反的情况 Now think of the opposite situation.
如果你是一名零售贸易商这是零售贸易行业的一个非常典型的情况 Where if you're a retail trader and this is a very typical situation in the retail trade community,
绝大多数的散户交易者都有这样的印象 交易是为了某种收入 the vast majority of retail traders are under the impression that trading is for some reason for income.
在某段时间要交易他们试着从趋势上获得每月的收入来补充他们的工资 Where the rates they're going to do at some time or what most people do is they try to trade and they try to supplement their salary by taking a monthly income from their train?
你去抓 you to catch.
我们再来考虑一下整数 So Let's think of this in round numbers again.
假设你在交易账户中存入10万美元你有这样一种印象 即你将在外汇市场上每月赚取1万美元 Let's say you put a hundred thousand dollars in your trading account and you have the impression that you're going to make ten thousand dollars a month trading the forex markets.
在这个王国里 你每个月将会得到1万美元 And you're going to take out of ten thousand dollars a month here in the kingdom.
来补充你的薪水 To supplement your salary,
做其他的事情 doing something else.
所以你打开你的账户 So you open your account and aftermath one,
你赚了一万美元 you're up ten thousand dollars.
接下来你要做什么 What's the next thing you do?
好吧 Well,
你得给自己找一万美元 you need to find yourself ten thousand dollars,
你从你的账户中取出1万美元 so you take ten thousand dollars out of your account of what happens.
你的资本又回到了10万美元 Your capital is back to one hundred thousand dollars.
现在 Now,
如果你打算花1万美元 if you're going to spend about ten thousand dollars,
你就知道富裕 you'll know wealthier.
所以如果你在一个月之内做完了 现在就没有意义了 So there's no point now what happens if you've done in month.
两个人损失一万美元 Two lose ten thousand dollars,
但是你要依靠你的交易账户来支付你1万美元的薪水 but you're relying on your trading account to pay you a salary of ten thousand dollars.
好吧 Well,
这就意味着你要从你的账户中取出1万美元 that's just means you're going to take ten thousand dollars out of your account.
从100到18 You're going to go from one hundred to eighteen.
为了保持相同水平的风险敞口 你将不得不冒更大的风险 才能获得与之前相同的回报 None to maintain the same levels of exposure you're going to have to take more risk to get the same return that you had previously.
所以 So.
你所做的一切都与很多专业人士交易我们的方式背道而驰 All that you're doing is the opposite of how a lot of professional traded us,
一个专业的贸易商 a professional trader,
不拿钱 doesnt take money.
如何赢得他们的智慧 而不把钱放在他们是否输了 how to win their witty and doesn't put money in whether they're losing.
但他们也不会冒更大的风险 But they don't take more risk either,
所以 so.
实际上你所做的与你挣一万美元的情况正好相反 What you're actually doing is the opposite your when you make ten thousand dollars,
你把它从被动收入中取出 you're taking it out of passive income,
当你 and when you,
当你输了 when you lose,
你会再次拿走他的收入 you'll take him income again,
这意味着你要冒更大的风险来维持相同的暴露水平 which means you're taking more risk to maintain the same levels of exposure.
现在 Now,
如果你要投资对冲基金 if you're going to invest in a hedge fund,
我敢打赌 如果你打算把毕生积蓄投入对冲基金 I'd bet if you were going to put your life savings in the hedge fund,
你会想看到回报的一致性你会想看到风险管理的多样性 you would want to see consistency of returns you would want to see diversity in risk management.
他希望看到他们的责任感和一致性 He would want to see responsibility and the consistency that they get.
由 The consists,
因为他经历了很长一段时间 as he comes over a long period of time.
现在 Now,
如果你把钱投到那个基金里 if you put your money in that fund,
什么东西可能是最重要的 what's probably the most important thing out of everything?
也许最重要的事情是 当经理们赢的时候 他们自己也在投资 Probably the most important thing is that the manager themselves invests when they are winning,
但他们确实在赚钱 but there are actually making money.
他们没有从基金中取出钱而是把钱放回基金中 they don't take it out of the funds they put it back in the fund.
这对你来说不太好 That's not going to sit with you very well.
如果对冲基金经理 If the hedge fund manager.
向你收取绩效费 然后拿走他们的钱 这只是意味着你在资助对冲基金经理变得更富有 Charges you a performance fee and takes their money at it just means you're sponsoring the hedge fund manager to become wealthier,
但是 but.
他们没有在自己的策略上投资 从而变得更加爱你 They are not investing in their own strategy to become even more love you,
所以这没有任何意义 so it doesn't make any sense.
它违背了整个目的 It defeats the whole purpose.
这里有几件事首先是基本工资 So a couple of things here first basic salaries.
不要以为你会因为某些原因离职 don't be under the impression that you're going to use for some reason to leave your job,
你会用自己的钱交易 you're going to trade with your own money.
你需要在你赢的时候提取利润，这样可以降低你的交易风险 I'm going to take a salary from your trading account because the only thing that's going to happen if on a monthly basis you take money out when you're winning and you take more risk when you're losing.
随着时间的推移 唯一可能发生的事情就是你正在努力去做 The only thing that can happen over time is that you are trying to do.
计数趋于零 the count goes to zero.
其次 Secondly,
方法方法必须是风险管理的一致性多样性和资金的再投资 the approach the approach has to be one of consistency diversity of risk management and reinvestment of your money.
当你愿意 When youre willing,
我是Ted I am to Ted,
当你输或不输的时候 你就不知道还有什么风险了 you know no further risk when you're losing or not.
赚钱 making money.
在这种情况下 Now this situation of going to zero,
我们再进一步讨论一下 let's discuss this a little bit further.
如果发生了什么 What happens if?
你现在的情况是 每次你赚钱的时候 You are in this situation where every time you make money,
你从你的交易账户中取出钱 you take money out of your trading account,
每当你亏损的时候 and every time you lose money,
你会冒更大的风险 you take more risk.
好吧 Well,
随着时间的推移 你会看到罗马 you're going to see Rome over time.
这取决于在这种情况下会发生什么 It just depends how long what happens if you leverage this situation.
所以我们现在借100万美元在同样的策略上进行再投资 So we now borrow a million dollars to reinvest in the same strategy,
但是我们用这10万美元作为抵押 but we use the hundred thousand dollars as collateral,
借100万美元中的百分之一来投资这个策略 to borrow the one hundredth of one million dollars to invest in this strategy.
好吧 Well,
这只是意味着你有10万美元 it just means you're one hundred thousand dollars.
你用这些抵押品来弥补美元的损失 You use this collateral to cover losses against familiar dollars.
他将会得到0 He is going to get to zero,
更快 quicker.
因为你需要支付这些负债这是每个交易账户的情况我们称之为保证金 Because you're going to have to pay those liabilities and this is what happens in every traded account that we call a margin,
癌症生物学就是金钱 the cancer biology is just money.
这就是你交易账户的好处 That's the positive in your trading account.
并将其作为抵押 使你能够通过英国公司借款十次 And its use as collateral to enable you to borrow through the British company ten times,
通常在股票和指数中 typically in stocks and indices,
一百次了 and one hundred times in for it.
如果你这样做了 And if you do that,
所有这些都会发生 all that's going to happen.
如果你利用这个策略 If you leverage this strategy,
你们很快就能看到吗 is you're going to get to see very quickly?
这是唯一可能发生的事 It's the only thing that can happen.
当你赢钱的时候 You take money out when you're winning,
当你输的时候 你会冒更大的风险 you take more risk when you're losing.
结果是他的生命走到了尽头 The outcome is took his terminal.
你的账户趋向于零 也趋向于零 而且更快 Your account tends towards zero and goes to zero and quicker,
所以你就开枪吧 so you just shoot it.
你最后得到了我们所说的魔法 And you end up getting what we call a magical?
交易商给你电话 发电子邮件说你必须在交易账户里存更多的钱来弥补你账户里的损失 Where'd the breaker literally gives you a comb a telephone call and sends you an email and says You have to put more money in your trading account to cover the losses in your account.
如果你不这么做 If you don't do that,
你会喜欢它 you'll like that.
所以在我们继续之前 让我们在这里得到一些 So let's go get some right here before we move on.
如果你打算用自己的钱来创业 If you're going to use your own money to trait.
不要抱有幻想 Be under no illusion.
职业交易员都有基本工资 Professional traders all have basic salaries.
你也应该有基本工资 You should have a basic salary as well.
你应该保持这个基本工资 你应该把它作为一种爱好开始交易 You should maintain this basic salary you should trade to begin with as a hobby.
在未来的某个时间点 你擅长做什么交易 What do you get good at trading at some point in the future,
它可能成为一种可行的选择 成为一种职业 it may become a viable option that it becomes a profession,
但事实就是如此 but as it stands.
如果你工作 If you're working,
你有基本工资 you've got a basic salary,
你不是一个专业的交易者 you're not a professional trader.
你会零售商人 You'll retail trader.
保持你的基本工资和潜在的不利因素 Maintain your basic salary and potential downside.
这是第一件事 That's the first thing.
其次 Secondly,
你的账户 your account,
你的资本 your capital.
不要把他从你的交易账户里拿出来 Do not take him come from your trading account.
当你输的时候 你愿意不去冒更大的风险 When you're willing to do not to take more risk when you're losing.
你应该把你的交易账户视为一项资产 You should view your trading account as an asset in itself.
我很抱歉 I'm sorry,
我说 I said.
你的目标是在从现在到退休的一生中增加这项资产的价值 You are aiming to increase the value of this asset over your lifetime between now and retirement.
从日常饮食中匆匆而过 Hurry from the daily diet.
作为一个人 这些资产就在你的资产负债表上 That asset sits on your balance sheet as a human being.
资产的价值完全取决于你的交易能力 And the value of an asset is completely linked to your ability as a trader.
如果你没问题的话 So if you're good.
你增加了你的账户的价值 你可以选择将更多的钱存入你的交易账户 并继续增加你的账户的规模 You increase the value of your account and you have an option to put more money into your trading account and keep increasing the size of your account.
如果你是坏的 If you're bad,
你并没有真正投资于这个策略 you don't really invest in that strategy.
他只是想好起来 He just try to get better,
当你好转时 and when you get better,
然后你可以选择投资更多的钱 then you have the option to invest more money.
这很简单 It's very straightforward,
但是很多人会因为市场上的错误信息而犯这个错误 but many many people make the mistake because of misinformation in the market.
在这个糟糕的世界里 专业交易员从他们的交易账户中获取收入 And in the big bad world that professional traders take income from their trading account,
专业培训师集中了风险 professional trainers have concentrated risk.
他们冒很大的风险 They take big risks,
他们跑来跑去 对着很多人尖叫他们有几百个电脑屏幕 they are running around and screaming at lots of people they've got hundreds of computer screens.
在飞行中根本就不是这样的 It just doesn't work like that at all in flight.
大多数你可能认为是专业培训做的事情 Most of the things that you probably think a professional training does.
它们可能与你所期望的完全相反 They're probably the total opposite of what you would expect.
在现实中 In reality.
在现实中 And in reality,
从专业交易员的角度来看 from a professional traders perspective,
我可以告诉你 它们与你的预期完全相反 I can tell you they absolutely all the opposite of what you would expect.
所以只要把这些东西带上飞机 So just take those things on board.
确保你认识他们 Make sure you know them.
既然你知道我的专业训练很差 Now that you know a poor professional training.
你能继续理解吗 does you can move on to understanding?
成功是什么 What's successful?
专业交易员 professional traders do,
就像那些和我们有着相同目标的对冲基金经理一样 他们用自己的钱进行交易 as in the guys who have got the same objectives as us that hedge fund managers that trade with their own money,
试图用自己的钱作为资本变得更富有 trying to become wealthier using their own money as capital.
这就是我们在视频2中要弹下来的 And that's what we're going to be bouncing down in video number two.
我们诊所见 I'll see you in clinic.