好吧 每个人 你好 正如我昨天指出的 这些行动和个股确实是一个不祥的预兆 导致了今天的下跌 Okay, everyone. Hello. As I pointed out yesterday, the action and individual stocks was really a ominous and leading to this decline today.
目前 道指午盘下跌了50600点 Right now, midday, we're down about between 506 hundred points on the Dow.
当然 网络堆栈在这里也受到压力 The net stack, of course, is also under pressure here.
整个市场 我们在这里看到的是第2天 只要阅读所有的开放头寸 The whole market, we're seeing for a 2nd day here, just read across the board on open positions.
所以我想说的是 你知道 如果你买了这些名字中的一些 你在一些股票中 基本上有三种情况 So what I want to talk about is, you know, if you bought some of these names and you're in some stocks, there's basically three types of scenarios that you're in.
首先 它可能会出现在一些较早被收购 已经采取行动的公司名下 The 1st is it could be in some of these names that were bought early and have already made a move.
我还应该说 我认为其他纳斯达克很有可能 甚至可能是这些指数的风声 可能会重新测试或削弱爱 当然 我已经在我的笔记中说过 但这看起来越来越有可能 尽管现在有很多情绪 很多很多都在承受情绪 I should also say that I think that is a good chance that other Nasdaq, and may be even the rustle of some of these indexes, may retest or undercut the love, of course, I already spoke about that in my note, but it's looking more and more possible, although there's a lot of sentiment, lot of lot of bear a sentiment right now.
所以我们来看看如果每个人都开始要求低价 So we'll see if if everybody starts calling for a low.
但是 当市场处于空白市场时 这种情绪可能会在一段时间内是正确的 But again, when the sentiment, when the markets in a bare market, the sentiment can actually be correct for a while.
它实际上是一种趋势指标 而不是一个国家指标 It's actually sort of a trending indicator than it is a country indicator.
当市场状况不佳 利率上升时 嗯 你会遇到很多逆风 需要很多纯粹的情绪持续地将其置于相反的低水平 When the markets in bad shape and interest rates are rising, um, and you've got a lot of headwinds, it takes a lot of bare sentiment persistently to put in that contrary and low.
因此 不要认为这是一个精确的指标 但我认为它的意思是 如果我们应该在这里出现恐慌性抛售 那么可能会出现某种低点 或者出现某种被低估的低点 我们看到空头情绪增加 So don't think that that's a pinpoint indicator, but I think what it does mean is that will probably put in some type of low if we should have a panic sell off here, or some type of UNDERCUTTED low, we see that bearishness increase.
还有一件事 我想指出的是 我们有很多人在时事通讯中说看空的话 但当你看看跌期权买入时 它还没有上升到水平 The thing too, is, I want to point out, is that we have a lot of people saying bearish things in the newsletters, but when you look at the um, the put buying, that has not risen to levels yet.
这就是为什么我认为现在还为时过早 我们可能仍然需要制定新的法律 有更多的缺点来得到人们所说的和他们所做的 And that's why I think it's still premature that we may still have to go to new laws and have more downside here to get the there's, there's what people are saying and what they're doing.
当我开始研究一个相反的迹象时 我希望他们能达成一致 I like to see them both in agreement when I start looking at a contrary indication.
这还没有达到一致 And that's that's not yet gotten to that congruence yet.
总之 有几个场景中 有三种情况 你可能会在 或者当你看个人的组合交易 你可以在这里 当然从自己的职位 你可以早些时候在你买的一些名字 像Asio 我们买了它的低气 然后它经历了一个回调 建造了一个小柄 爆发后 经历了一个自然的反应 进入新高地 So anyway, there's a couple scenarios, there's like three scenarios that you may be in, or a combination of When you look at the individual trades that you could be in here, certainly from our own open positions, you could be in some of the names that you bought earlier, like an Asio, where we bought it off of the Low Chi, and then it went through a pullback, built a little handle here, broke out, went through a natural reaction, and went into new high ground.
现在它进货了 你知道 从我们的购买价到现在的11% Now it stocks up, you know, 11% right now from our purchase price.
你知道 这可以一路拉回来 在市场调整期间非常正常地运行 或者 你知道 另一腿下跌 仍然可能没有达到你的盈亏平衡点 更不用说阻止你出局了 You know, this can pull all the way back and act very normally here during a market correction, or, you know, another leg down, and still maybe not even get your break even point, let alone stop you out.
当然 如果你 如果你像我们建议的那样 削减一些 你现在就被覆盖了 And certainly, if you, if you trimmed off some of this, like we suggested, that you're covered now.
所以即使你做到了收支平衡 你也会在交易中赚到钱 So even if you went to break even, you're going to actually make money on the trade.
如果你被拦下 你肯定不会失去任何人 If you get stopped out, you're certainly not going to lose anybody.
所以你的位置很好 So that that's a you're in a good position there.
a-n-t-m是另一种类似的情况因为你有利润 对吧 Something like an A-N-T-M is another one where it's a similar type uh situation that you would be in because you have a profit, right?
你在交易中获利了 现在大约有7%的收益 You're up on the trade, about 7% on the trade right now.
当然 我们比那还高 但今天掉下来了 Of course, we were up more than that, but it came off today.
再一次 如果它回来了 很自然地退出 我没有削减NTM 所以没有一个缓冲能够资助风险 And again, if it comes back and just naturally pulls back, I have not trimmed a NTM, so there's not a cushion to be able to finance the risk.
如果你愿意 你当然可以这么做 You certainly could do that if you'd like.
现在 另一个你可以做的是costco现在只有4% Now, another one you can do that with would be costco is only about 4% now.
但是 你可以看到我们从这个低作弊 建立了这个小处理区域 爆发 自然反应 But again, you can see we came off this low cheat, built this little handle area, broke out, natural reaction.
第二自然的反应 还没有达到高点 但这仍然是相对正常的行为 特别是考虑到市场 2nd Natural reaction. Haven't gotten it to no high ground yet, but this is still acting relatively normal, especially considering the market.
当我们进入这里时 你会产生一系列更高的低点 这是自然反应 As we're coming in here, you're making a just higher, uh, series of higher lows here, and these are natural reactions.
现在 你也可能会遇到这样的情况 可能你来的更早一些 或者股票还没有获得多少收益 比如a-j-x-n 我们在04 14买入 然后在04 19买入 Now, you could also be in a situation where, um, it's a little maybe maybe you came in a little bit earlier, or or the stock hasn't made much of a gain yet, something like A-J-X-N, which we started buying on 04:14 and then added to it on 04:19.
但你看 这实际上是在建造一个漂亮的大基地 But you see, this is actually building a beautiful, large base.
这真是太完美了 And that this is, this is really perfect.
这正是我们想看到的 也是我们未来所期待的 This is exactly what what we want to see, what we're looking for going forward.
市场在这里结束 So the market comes off here.
如果你的名字是这样的 那很好 你应该坚持下去 If you're in a name that's holding up like this, that's great, you should stick with it.
嗯 它不会阻止你退出 也不会产生任何违反 Um. It doesn't stop you out, and it's not creating any violations.
如果你没有 你应该非常仔细地关注这类股票 因为如果这只股票在回调期间坚挺 如果你跌至新低 And if you're not, you should be watching names like this very carefully, because if this stock holds up during a pullback a special, if you go to to new lows,
假设几天后又下降了一天 它稳定了一点 let's say maybe we have another day down a couple days, it stabilizes a bit.
也许在这段时间里 你创造了新的低点或重新测试了一个低点 这开始收紧 从低点出来 你得到突破 And maybe during this time where you're making new lows or retesting a lows, this starts tightening up and coming off the lows, you get a breakout.
也就是说 这是领导的特点 你知道 向你清楚地表明你应该买进突破的股票 因为股票保持得很好 That is, that is the leadership characteristics, you know, showing you clearly that you should be buying that breakout because the stock is holding up so well.
事情就是这样 如果你还记得 我之前和迪克体育用品谈过这个 你 你在右边 就像我们在这里做的jxn一样 This is exactly what happened. If you remember, I talked about this before with Dick Sporting Goods, where you, you came up that right side, just like we did on this j XN right here.
你是在3点22分爆发的 但是右边有点挤 You broke out on 03:22, but it was a bit compressed on that right side.
我说 如果市场出现了修正 情况还是一样的 我希望总统能给你们演示一下 也许我周末会再讲一遍 And I said, if you have that correction in the market, and it's the exact same situation is starting to play out, I wish I had the, uh, the president here to show you, but maybe I'll, I'll go over it again on the weekend.
视频 这个周末 市场再创新低 在此期间 股票在主要基础上保持坚挺 在右侧不断增长 然后爆发 Video. This weekend, the market went to a new low, and during that time, the stock just held up in that primary base and built out that right side and then broke out.
所以对于最初的爆发来说有点过早了 So it was a little premature on on that initial breakout.
这就是你想要寻找的 或者像E-X-R这样的东西 看 你在这里突破 现在你往回拉 你刚刚往回拉突破 也许它没有撞到你的止损点 So that's what you want to look for, or something like an E-X-R, where, again, see, you break out here, and now youve pulled back, and you just pulled back to the breakout, and maybe it doesn't hit your stop.
也许它在这里成立 呃 而这个 当然 会给你带来更大的压力 因为它接近你的接近购买价 Maybe it holds here. Uh. And this, of course, is is, uh, is putting more pressure, because it's near your near purchase price.
当然可以 这实际上是一个 只需要听到0 5% 然后你就可以得到它 Of course. This is one actually, word down, just to hear about a half a percent here, and then you can get it.
当然 这是最近的一次购买 最近的一次购买 就像O-K一样 现在 它又面临3%左右的压力 This is a more recent, of course, purchase, more recent purchases, like something like an O-K, which now, again, this is under pressure about 3% or so.
这绝对是你给自己带来了更大的压力 This is definitely you're putting you under more pressure.
在这种情况下 你可能会被拦下去停车 And this under this scenario, you know, you're going to probably be getting stopped out to hit your stop.
你会遇到一些违规 你会削减 我们已经削减了一些位置 或者像A-F-L 我从这个基地出来 试图从这个空间出来 得到了逆转 现在你进来了 它可能会坚持住 You get some violations, you trim back, we've trimmed on some of these positions, or something like an A-F-L, where I came out of this base here, um, tried to come out of the space here, got the got the reversal, and now you're coming in, it might hold up.
但同样的 这些车更有可能阻止你下车 因为它们离你的站更近 But again, these are more likely to stop you out because they're closer to your stop.
它们是更落后的名字 他们出来的时间不早 所以他们没有表现出那些领导特征 They were more laggard names. They didn't come out as early, so they're not showing those leadership characteristics, um.
所以再说一遍 这取决于你在这个连续体中的位置 它取决于 你将会在哪里 So so again, depending on where you are in that continuum, it depends on, you know, where you're going to be.
你们中的一些人可能会在整个撤资过程中持有一些职位 Some of you may end up in holding some positions right through this whole pull back.
如果市场能再创新低 If market could go to new lows.
你的名字不会被淘汰 因为你用了一些更早的名字 你有先发优势 And you're not stopped out of your names, because you got in some of those earlier names, you had that 1st mover advantage.
你们中的一些人可能还没有交易过 你们只是做了一些交易然后说 好吧 现在情况看起来好多了 Some of you may not have had any trades then, and you you just took some pitches and you said, OK, things are looking a bit better now.
之后你进行了一些交易 现在你被迫回现 And you took some of these later trades, and now you're actually getting forced back to cash.
所以 一切都会水落石出 So, but it all comes out in the wash.
你知道 你会 你会在某个点上得到一条线 所有人都一致 你会 你会与下一个上升趋势一致 You know, you'll, you'll get a line at some point, everybody gets aligned, and you'll, you'll be aligned with the next up trend.
所以无论如何 都不要以为这一切正在为你展开 So don't either, either way, that this is unfolding for you.
嗯 很好 只是想与你分享的 特征或这里你可能会经历什么 嗯 我们要认识到的是看如果我们开始看到这种类型的扩散行动 你得到一个股票设置它持有的基础和试图建立右边 或者也许你已经建立了右边 你有一个不错的基础建设 然后分解 得到一个真正的打破右侧的主 然后你会得到一个轴失效 Uh, it's fine. Just wanted to share with you that the sort of, the characteristics or or what you might be going through here, um, what we want to be cognizant of is watching if we start to see a proliferation of this type of action, where you get a stock that sets up and it's holding in that base and trying to build that right side, or maybe you it has built the right side, you've got a nice base built, and then it just falls apart, and you get a real break of the pivot of the right side, and you get a pivot failure.
当然 基础失败会更糟糕 如果你把基础中的低点去掉 Base failure, of course, would be even worse where you take out the lows in the base.
但这种损伤 在短期内 不可能在一夜之间自我修复 But this kind of damage here, in the short term, this is not gonna repair itself overnight.
你不会我是说 我是说 我不是说你肯定不会 You're not gonna get I mean, I mean, I'm not saying you're definitely can't get it.
你可以拿到 但如果它从这里掉头 回到地下室 直到他太棒了 那对我来说跨界并不难 You could get it, but it wouldn't be a hard way crossover for me if it just turned around from here, went back up the vault till he's just too great.
它可以这么做 这是可能的 但不太可能 It could do that. It's possible, but it's unlikely.
这可能需要更多的时间重新基础 当你得到这种类型的伤害 This probably needs more time to re base when you get this type of damage.
所以伤害越大 断腿也就越严重 So the bigger the damage, the bigger the broken legged, if you will.
如果你知道 如果你扭伤了 而不是摔断了腿 修复的时间会更短 If you know, if you get a sprain versus a broken leg, it's going to take less time to repair.
关键是我们看到的股票是在早期基础上出现的吗 The key is is that are we seeing the stocks that were that came out of the earlier basis?
他们保持这些自然反应吗 Are they holding in those natural reactions?
股票是否正在建立 And are the stocks that are setting up?
他们现在还能保持平衡吗 Are they holding on balance now?
有些公司会拆分 但我们是否看到一些公司在股市回落时仍在坚持 而其他公司在买入 Some are going to break apart, but are we seeing names holding up and and other names to buy even as the market pulls back here?
他们的名字有基础吗 And are their names base building?
如果没有 那就是一个不祥的信号 市场可能会进一步下跌 或者你需要更多的时间来建立 你知道 这些 这些是这些基础结构 If not, then that's even more of an ominous sign, where the market may have to go even lower, or you need more time to build out, you know, these, these are these base structures.
所以请耐心等待 我们仍然有很多逆风 So just be patient here. It's still we've got a lot of head winds.
如你所知 我还没有发出解除警报的信号 As you know, I have not signaled the all clear.
从11月22日开始 我们就没有发过信号了 我们没有一次去绿灯 没有 Not one single time have we ever gone on a by signal since no, november 22, not one single time have we gone into the green, uh, all clear.
或者 或者 你知道的 股票表现好到足以在茎英里上变得激进 或者任何评论 Or, or, you know, stocks acting good enough to get aggressive on the stem mile, or any comments.
所以你不应该太激进 除非你做空 So you should not have gotten very aggressive, unless you're trading the shorter
学期 你 你知道 你 你做得很好 term, and you're, you know, you're, you're doing well with that.
脚后跟很好 Fine on the on the heels
牵引 如果你想变得更有侵略性 但如果你没有得到关注 你就不应该在这里这么有侵略性 只是要做好准备 of traction. If you want to get more aggressive, but certainly if you're not getting traction, you shouldn't be aggressive here and and just keep in your powder dry.
所以要有耐心 因为这是淘汰 So be patient, though, because this is weeding out.
当你看到类似 When you take a look at something like
这里很有趣 看起来它会把这里的低点拉出来 我认为几乎肯定会跌到更低的低点 Kathy Woods arc Fun here, which is looking like it's going to take out the lows here, I think this is almost certain to go to lower lows.
你当然可以在Netflix上看到 You're seeing that in Netflix, of course.
现在Facebook 我们来看看其中的一些 比如Facebook And now Facebook. We take a look at a few of these, like something like Facebook.
大家都在抄股票 你知道吗 You know, everybody's bottom fishing these stocks, you know?
你有一些反弹 你有这些反弹 And you got some rallies, you get these snap back rallies.
但你看 就在这里 看起来你要创下新低了 But you see right back in here, and looking like you're going to new lows here.
我猜你这是在把自己逼到最低谷 I guess you are just taking out a new low here.
所以海底的渔民又一次面临着压力 So the bottom fishers are once again under pressure here.
你需要进行几次迭代 And you need to go through several iterations of this.
而这一次 我觉得你可能要经历 你知道 至少再经历一两次 才能真正被淘汰 And this time around, um, I think you might have to go through, you know, at least one or two more before you really wash out.
可能 但很多股票 比如Netflix 可能需要很长很长时间才能表现不佳 And probably, but many of these stocks, something like a Netflix, is probably going to take a long, long time where it underperforms.
我刚刚在推特上发了这个 我会在周末的视频中分享分析 And I just tweeted this, I'll I'll share the analysis in my weekend video.
Netflix 这是该股第三次在最近两次反弹中下跌70%或以上 Netflix has had. This is the 3rd time that the stock has been down 70% or more the last two times it came back.
这实际上是一个买入的机会 我不认为 而且我认为很多人会认为这是一个买入的机会 因为他们之前看到过几次 It was actually a buying opportunity, I don't think, and I think a lot of people will see it as a buying opportunity because they saw it a couple of times before.
但是当你看到这个趋势的时候 它就变得可以预测了 就像这样 But by the time you see that trend, then it becomes predictable, like that, if you will.
通常情况下 他下次不会再工作了 Quote unquote, usually he doesn't doesn't work the next time.
我认为这一次 我认为Netflix将表现不佳 而这些公司的很多股票将在很长一段时间内表现不佳 And I think that this time around, I think Netflix is going to underperform, and a lot of these stocks are going to be underperformers for an extended period of time.
我想比赛已经结束了 I think the game is over here.
这些股票 只要表现出色 你就会反弹 你肯定会反弹 And these sang stocks, as far as the, you know, the outperformance, and you'll get rallies, you know, you're definitely going to get snap back rallies.
但就目前的表现和上升趋势而言 我不认为我们会在一段时间内看到这些名字的上升趋势 But as far as the out performance and being in an uptread, I don't think we're going to see an up trend for a while in some of these names.
所以现在我们得开始寻找新的名字 新的领导 So now we have to start looking for new names, new leadership.
这是一件好事 And this is a good thing.
人们可能会认为这是一件坏事 People might think this is a bad thing.
这是一件好事 我们可能会让小型股和中型股表现更好 我们不知道新的领导会出现在哪里 但它会出现 会有一个新的领导领导一个高贵的市场 一个新的上涨 This is a good thing. We we might get the small caps and the mid caps to perform going for We don't know where that new leadership is going to emerge, but it will emerge, and there will be a new leadership that will lead a noble market, a new uplague.
所以 关键是要做好功课 要有耐心 现在就开始寻找 开始准备 So that the key is is to do your homework, be patient, and to look for that now and start preparing for that.
我知道很多人都在谈论跳远 I know a lot of people are talking about jumping on the short side.
现在说这个可能有点晚了 It's probably a bit late for that.
但就像我说的 很多时候 钱都花在长线上了 But like I said, many times, the money's on the long side.
不要担心做空 这是你做数学 做数字 做后期分析 仔细观察 做好准备的时候 Instead of worrying about going short, this is the time where you do your math, do your numbers, do your post analysis, and watch carefully, and get ready.
寻找多头头寸 为下一次上行机会做好准备 Look for the longs and get ready for the next opportunity on the upside.
好吧 我当然会在周末更多地讲市场和个股 All right, I'll of course more on on the market and and individual stocks this weekend.
我通常不会在周五这样做 但我觉得昨天 在如此令人崩溃的一天 真的需要解决这个问题 I don't normally do this on a Friday, but I feel like yesterday, with such a crushing day across the board, really needed to address this.
而今天 当然 是跟随下行趋势 And today, of course, following through to the downside.
但是 我们真的 你知道 现在平均停止大约是 你知道 4%左右 非常紧 如果你保持光照 But again, we're really, you know, the average stop right now is like, you know, 4% or so, pretty tight, if you're keeping light exposure.
它不应该在你的投资组合中占太大的比例 It shouldn't be much of your portfolio.
不应该有太多的风险敞口 不好意思 压力太大 除非你的交易规模比你应该的要大 Shouldn't be, really have much exposure, I'm sorry, much pressure, unless you're, you're trading, you know, larger than you should be.
现在 你知道 我们已经确保 你知道 我们已经逐步移动到这里 但是 我们在这些股票上的任何损失都没有超过3% And right now, you know, we've, we've made sure that, you know, we've incrementally moved here, and still, we don't really have any losses more than about 3% on any of these stocks.
所以并没有造成很大的损害 So there hasn't been a whole lot of damage.
但别让事情发展到这个地步 But don't let it get to that.
不要让损失失去控制 Don't let the damage get out of control.
如果你有 你知道 也许你太有野心了 你知道 收回去 If you've had, you know, maybe you got a little too ambitious, you know, pull it back.
把它拉回来 让自己恢复浮力 Pull it back and get yourself back to buoyancy.
好吧 我一会儿再跟你们聊 All right, I'll talk to you guys soon.
再见 再见 你 Bye. Bye. You are.