好的 每一个人 欢迎来到这个周末的每周学习环节 Okay, every one. Welcome to this weekend's weekly study session.
这周末我有很多事要谈 I got a lot to talk about this weekend.
这一周真是糟透了 It was a heck of a week.
我们已经看到了一些波动 我想去市场看看 We've seen some volatility. I want to go over the general market.
我不会讲股票 除了一些特定的情况 一个先例 实际上是一些先例 I'm not gonna talk about stocks, except a few specific situations, a precedent, and actually a few precedences.
但就商业内幕交易预警列表和所有相关内容而言 我实际上不会在这个周末谈论股票 But as far as the BI alert list and all that's concerned, I'm not gonna actually talk about stocks this weekend.
我要在这里等着看 I'm gonna take a wait and see here.
我并没有看到太多的铺垫 I'm not really seeing much that setting up.
有一只股票 就像我说的 我要讲一个先例 但我们这里要讨论的是整体市场 主要是第一点 There's one stock, like I said, I'm gonna talk about a precedent, but we're going to discuss the general market here, mainly 1st of all.
1日的 首先我想说的是 当你观察S-M-P500时 长期趋势仍然完好无损 1st of all. I want to start off with that the long term trend is still intact when you take a look at something like the S-M-P 500.
然而 我们必须保持这样的观点 即在服务之下已经出现了一个毁灭性的 荒芜的市场 However, we gotta keep that in perspective that there's A-A devastating, bare market that has already taken place beneath the service.
你们知道 我已经谈论这个很长时间了 嗯 在增长的名字和那些最高的 当然 还有5080规则 我马上就会讲到 And you know, I've been talking about this for a long time, um, in the in the growth names and the high flyers that have topped, and the 5080 rule, of course, which I'll talk about in just a 2nd.
很多股票下跌了50-80% 80% 有些甚至更多 Lots of stocks down 50 to 80 per-, 80 %, and some even more than that.
所以 这是一种误导 我认为这就是为什么很多人对这次熊市措手不及 So again, it's misleading, and I think that's why a lot of people are caught off guard with this particular bear market.
正如我所指出的 几个月来 它以一种隐秘的方式展开 As I pointed out, for many months, it has unfolded in a stealth fashion.
嗯 所以 我认为最后会发生的是我们继续到这里 Um. So again, what I think will end up happening is we continue to go over here.
我认为我们可能会看到更长期的趋势 I think we may get the longer term trend.
我们可能开始获得一些长期趋势卖出信号 We may start getting some long term trend sell signals.
它们可能发生在低谷附近 And they might occur around the lows.
它们可能最终会变成一个相反的指标 They might actually end up being more of a, uh a contrary indicator.
在新冠熊市低点前后 我们在接近底部的时候很少有类似的情况 Few are similar to how we had near the bottom here at the around the covid bear market lows.
但是我们会讲到 我们马上就会讲到 But we'll talk about, we'll talk about that in just a 2nd here.
在中间和更直接的未来头发中 风险模型是我们真正想要关注的 Um in the in the intermediate and more immediate future hair, the risk model is what we really want to focus on.
当然 个股是最重要 最能说明问题的 And of course, the individual stocks are what are most important and most telling.
我们从11月22日开始就有固定的手机信号 那是NASAC的高峰 正如你们所知 非常及时的手机信号 就NASAC而言 当然 We are on a firm cell signal since november 22, which was the day of the high of the NASAC, as you know, very timely cell signal as far as the NASAC is concerned, certainly.
从那以后 我们再也没有骑过自行车 And we have not gone on a bicycle since then.
事实上 我们只是短暂地发出了警报 而在上周 你可以看到一切都变成了负面的 As a matter of fact, we only briefly went on a by alert, and this last week, you can see everything turned negative.
在那次反弹中 我们开始有所改善 脱离低点 但正如我多次向你们指出的那样 我们必须小心 那不是一次单纯的市场反弹 We were starting to improve a little bit on that rally, off the lows, but as I pointed out to you many times, we had to be careful that that wasn't just a bare market rally.
它看起来越来越像这样 And it's looking more and more like that.
事实确实如此 所以所有的分量都是负的 Certainly was the case. So all the components are negative.
现在 还有纯粹基于股票的stem模型 这更多地反映了我是如何通过观察股票走势 我自己的交易 通过警报列表和我们的未平仓头寸来对市场进行评级的 Now, also with the stem model, which is purely just stock based, and this is really more of a reflection of how I'm grading the market by looking at the stock action, my own trading, the by alert list and our open positions.
在短短的一天内 它变成了橙色 然后又变成了红色 And that just briefly for one day, went on orange and then went right back to red.
所以 这又是非常不祥的行动 我们一直没能坚持住 So, again, very ominous action. We have not been able to hold.
我们试图从低点开盘 但失败得很惨 We tried to set up off the lows, and that has really failed quite miserably.
现在 你知道 我谈到了 嗯 这是一个总统 嗯 总统年的第二年 是这个周期中最糟糕的一年 进入中期 当然 Now, you know, I talked about the, uh, this being a presidential, uh, 2nd year of a presidential year, and being the worst year of that cycle, going into the the mid term, of course.
这是季节性因素 但我们确实有很多逆风 And and again, this is, these are seasonality factors, but we do have a lot of headwinds.
这不是我可以利用的东西 This is not something that I would trade upon.
当然 如果股票正在上涨 我也会买入 If stocks were setting up, of course, I'd be buying em regardless of this.
但我们确实有一堆逆风 我想谈谈其中的一些 因为其中一些最近已经变得非常非常真实 But we do have A-A bunch of headwinds, and I want to talk about a few of those, because a few of those have become really, quite real recently.
嗯 这是一个主要的事实 Um. And this is this main, uh uh, a fact here.
就美联储加息的速度 或者美联储收紧货币政策的速度而言 这对市场有很大的影响 你知道 如果美联储收紧的速度很快的话 这是一种非常极端的方式 As far as the, uh, the speed at which fed hikes come in, or the tightenings from the fed, this has an impact on the market quite, uh, you know, in quite a extreme fashion, if the fed tightening is fast.
现在发生的是 市场开始陷入困境的原因是有迹象和语言从美联储和一些美联储成员那里传出 他们将加快紧缩的步伐 And what's happening now, the reason why the market is starting to get into trouble here is because there's indications and language coming out of the FED and some of the FED members, that they're going to accelerate the pace of the tightening.
从历史上看 当快速紧缩时 市场表现不佳 你可以看到没有紧缩 市场表现比缓慢紧缩周期好得多 And the market, historically, does not do well when you have that fast tight You can see it with no tightening, the market does much better than a slow tightening cycle.
随着快速紧缩周期的到来 这正是市场表现最糟糕的时候 And with a fast tightening cycle, that's when the market does the worst.
美联储理事布雷纳德在周二表示 其中有几个词 你知道 真正打动了市场 美联储可能最快在5月份缩减资产负债表 而且速度很快 So FED governor Brainard said Tuesday, and there's a few, you know, words in in some of this language that really spoke the market, that the Fed could reduce the balance sheet as soon as May, and would be doing so at a rapid pace.
此外 她说 可以以更积极的步伐加息 Also, she said that hikes can come in at a more aggressive pace.
这开始转化为 人们对华尔街的看法 我们可以达到50甚至75%一个基点 一个百分点的变动 And what that's starting to translate into, uh, how people are looking at this on Wall Street, is that we can go to a 50 and and quite possibly even a 75% A-A basis point, a percentage point move
联邦基金 这就是这里的定价 on the fed funds, so that that's what's being priced in here.
现在 记住我今天要告诉你的是好消息和坏消息 Now, keep in mind I'm going to tell you the good news and the bad news today.
现在的坏消息超过了好消息 The bad news right now is outweighing the good news.
从短期来看 我认为从长期来看 好消息远远多于坏消息 In the short term, I think in the longer term, the good news is much more than the bad news.
但在短期内 或者应该说在更长期内 我们可以看到 在它导致衰退或长期熊市之前 哪些地方需要美联储多次加息 But in the short term, or or should say in the longer term, we we, we can see where you will need a number of fed hikes before it causes a recession or a secular bear market.
所以 当我们回顾历史时 我总是喜欢看 So again, when we look back historically, I always like to look at
优先 看看历史 嗯 不要在这些事情上太固执己见 真正听从事实 precedence, look at history, um, and not get too opinionated on this stuff, and really just defer to the facts.
事实上 这可能是一个短期事件 一个长期熊市中的周期性事件 一个长期牛市 Uh, the facts are that this is probably a shorter term event, a cyclical event within a secular bear market, a secular bullmark.
抱歉 差别很大 所以现在看看纳斯达克 当然 我们又开始分销了 我们看到分销的日子又回到了市场 I'm sorry, big difference. So now looking at the NASDAQ, of course, we came under distribution again, and we're seeing distribution days come back into the market.
在下跌的日子里 我们有更高的成交量 We have higher volume on the down days.
我们我说过那个 那个测试 那个 那个 我们在做一个回调测试 我们在200天附近恢复了 当我们回调的时候 就在这里 Uh, we I talked about that, uh, that test, that that, uh, that we were having a pull back test, where we rallied up near the 200 day, and as we pulled back, that's right there.
我们想看看市场是否能守住 在最坏的情况下 建立一个正确的方向 然后我们有股票开始建立和突破这些基础 可能在市场走高之前 就指数而言 或与市场同步 有时甚至落后一点 We want to see if the market can hold, and at the worst case scenario, build a right side, where then we have stocks start to set up and break out from those bases, possibly before the market gets legs as far as the indexes are concerned, or coincidence with the market, or sometimes even even lagging a bit.
但是但是我们走的是相反的方向 But but what's happened is we've gone the opposite direction.
我们看到股票下跌 或者有一些公司持有 但很少 We're seeing stocks break down, or there are some names that are holding, but very few.
我们现在真的看到很多轴心失效 还有一些基础失效 We're really seeing a lot of pivot failures now, and some base failures.
所有的 你知道的 底层的渔业资源 And all, you know, the bottom fishing stocks.
很多这样的股票 我希望我能在第二秒内谈论Netflix 你知道 被打败了 A lot of these stocks, I wish I'll talk about Netflix in just a 2nd, you know, got clobbered.
嗯 我们看到 你知道 这里有更多的冲刷 我们只是不在那里你的花园品种现在我们已经看到很多次了 Um, where we're seeing, you know, a more of a wash out here, and we're just not there your garden variety a correction now that we've seen so many times.
所以哪里的低点肯定是危险的 我们将会看到 你知道 如果我们开始剔除低点和一些主要的平均线 事情会变成什么样子 So where the lows are definitely in jeopardy here, and we'll have to see, you know, what things look like if we start taking out lows and some of these major averages.
当然 罗素2000在这里已经看起来很顶尖了 Of course, the Russell 2000 has already looked very toppy here.
试图逃出他的基地 失败了 现在变成了下坡路 Tried to break out of his base, failed, and is now turned into a down tren.
这本身就很不吉利 This looks pretty ominous in itself.
当然 市场在触底前看起来总是不祥的 但我不会 我不会对底部在这里太兴奋 宝贝 Of course, the market always looks ominous before it bottoms, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't get too excited about a bottom right here, chesty.
然而 就像我说的 我认为短期来看 呃 看起来很难看 Yet, like I said, I think the short term looks, uh, looks pretty ugly.
另外 如果你看一下 投资者商业日报 50 这些都是我们通常交易的名字 Also, if you take a look at the Investors Business Daily 50, um, these are the type of names that we were generally trafficking.
再一次 我们创下了新低 And and again, we're hitting new lows here.
我们才刚刚出来 至少是在测试低点 We're just coming out, at least testing the lows here.
所以你也可以看到 从低点反弹非常微弱 没有任何设置 So you can see also, the rally off the lows was very feeble, with no set up whatsoever.
我们处于下降趋势 And we're in a down trend.
所以我们不再是这些指数的下跌趋势 即使你看一些突破指数 创新者突破指数 我在看这个 因为它试图收紧在右边 在它经过一些迭代之后 只是在这里 很长很长一段时间 So we're no longer term down trend there on some of these index Even if you look at something like the breakout index, the Innovator breakout index, I was watching this because it was trying to tighten up over here on the right side after it went through some iterations here of just basing for a long, long time.
我希望这么长一段时间的整合会带来突破 也许结果不会像我们想象的那么糟糕 或者我们会在某些领域看到某种类型的领导 I was hoping that that's this long a period of consolidation was going to lead to a breakout, and maybe this wouldn't turn out as bad as we thought, or maybe we'd see a some type of leadership in some certain areas.
但你看 这里也变弱了 崩溃了 低于200天 轴心失效了 But that also, you see, is getting weak here, breaking down, getting below the 200 day and and having that pivot failure.
所以在所有的索引中 有很多负面的作用 So a lot of, a lot of, uh, negative action here in all the indexes.
是的 当然 P有两个大的下跌日 随着整个市场越来越接近那些低点 Yes, and P of course, had two big down days, along with the whole market getting closer to those lows.
因此 我们看到整个市场都在抛售 So across the board, we're seeing the market sell off.
当我们看表面之下时 我总是喜欢看表面之下 看个股的走势 When we look beneath the surface, I always like to look beneath the surface and look at what's going on with the individual stocks.
我有很多方法来处理这些问题 但有些方法非常简单直接 I have a lot of ways that I-I-I slice and dice that, but some of them are are quite basic and straightforward.
其中之一就是看看我们的宇宙中有多少股票涨了4%或更多 跌了4%或更多 One of them is just a look at how many stocks are up 4% or more, down 4% or more, uh in our universe?
上周五 在486家下跌4%以上的公司中 涨幅超过4%的只有24家 And there was only 24 up 4% or more in 486 down 4% or more on Friday.
我也喜欢看 因为我交易的名字通常 通常有89或更好的相对实力 所以这是我倾向于交易的领域 I also like to look at because I trade in names that generally trade a, generally sport a 89 or better relative strength, and so that's sort of my area that I tend to traffic in.
所以我喜欢看涨幅超过3%的股票 So I like to look at stocks that are up 3% or more more.
你可以考虑4%或更多 你想确定的百分比是多少 但我考虑3%或更多的上下相对强度是89或更高 你也可以看到 下跌淹没了上涨 You can look at 4% or more, whatever percentage you want to determine, but I look at 3% or more up and down that are a 89 or higher relative strength, and that also you can see where the uh, the downside just swamp the upside.
因此 股票在表面之下再次遭到抛售 So again, stocks are selling off beneath the surface.
有一件事让我意识到整个市场变得非常疲软 在11月我们的手机信号中 正如你们所记得的 UH是市场表面下的参与度下降 市场达到新高 One of the things that tipped me off to this whole market getting real soft and UH, in our cell signal over here back in November, as you remember, UH was the deterioration in the participation beneath the surface from the market was hitting new highs.
UH 作为指数中的一个 就nastic而言 一些指数 我们的参与度远低于50% 超过200天 UH, as as a in the indexes, as far as the nastic is concerned, some of the indexes, we were well below 50% in the participation, above the 200 day.
正如我当时告诉你们的 在我近40年的市场交易和跟踪中 我从未见过一个市场能在这种情况下存活下来 And as I told you back then, in my near 40 years trading the markets and tracking these things, I have never seen the market one time survived the situation.
果不其然 它没有 And sure enough, it did not.
我们翻了个身 在一个空荡荡的市场里 And we rolled over and were in a bare market.
现在 当我们重新回到这里 回到200人的行列 这是一个让我们看看 我们在这个行列中有什么样的参与者的时候 Now, when we rallied back here, back to the 200, this was a time to take a look and see, what kind of participation do we have in this rally?
我们能买到股票吗 Are we able to get stocks
开始超过200日移动平均线或者接近200日移动平均线 to start getting above their 200 or getting close to their 200 day moving average?
你可以看到 And you can see it was.
这几乎不是从低点反弹 It was barely a rally off the lows.
所以这是一个真正的提示 这个市场需要更多的整合 或者可能 So that was a real tip off that this market needed more consolidation, or maybe
甚至另一个回调 现在我们可能会在相反的方向上出现分歧 你知道 你看股票低于他们的百分比 even another pullback. Now we may get a divergence on on the opposite direction, where, you know, you look at the percentage stocks below their
超过50日移动平均线 在200if above their 50 day moving average, in their 200 if
当我们跌至新低时 我们会开始寻找这种背离 we go to new lows, we'll start looking for that divergence
然后在我们跌到新低的时候开始寻找支撑 and start to look for that to hold up while we hit new lows.
但这还有待观察 But that's still yet to be seen.
现在 关于好消息的另一件事 我认为这是一个更长期的好消息 不是现在 是情绪 Now, another thing on the good news, which I think is good news a little bit longer term, not just yet, is the sentiment.
你会看到很多人指出你在这里有更好的情绪 或者在没有碗的情况下 你知道 这可能是底部 You'll have a lot of people pointing out that you have better sentiment here, or or in a lack of bowls, and that's where, you know, this may be a bottom.
可能是这样 但我认为我们需要在几个不同的方面增加熊市情绪 That could be, but I think we need more bear sentiment in in a few different ways.
因此 首先 我们得到了人们所说的 时事通讯作者 两极 我们已经看到了牛市下跌到我们在这些大调整期间看到的水平 当然回到了Covet熊市 So, 1st of all, we've got what people are saying, the newsletter writers, the poles, and we've got the bulls way down to levels that we've seen during these pretty big corrections, certainly going back to the the Covet bear market here.
这是一个很大的修正 非常严重的看跌 我们已经接近那个水平了 That was a big correction, very steep lot of bearishness, and we're down near those levels.
所以从相反的角度来看 我们有很好的理由说 我们有很好的条件 So there's a good case to say that we've got, um, we've got conditions that are very bearsome from a contrary standpoint.
这是布什 但是 你必须考虑到环境因素 That's Bush. However, you've got to take into consideration the environment.
我们发现 当利率环境有利时 你需要更少的荒凉来成为相反的自行车 And what we have found is that when the interest rate environment is is favorable, that you need less barishness to be a contrary bicycle.
但当利率环境变得不利时 你需要更多的空头 But when the interest rate environment turns hostile, you need more bearishness.
所以现在看空还不够 因为这里的利率环境比这里要恶劣得多 So this is not enough bearishness right now, because the interest rate environment is getting much more hostile here than it was here.
所以相对来说 你必须调整这种情绪 So relatively speaking, you have to adjust this sentiment.
这么说吧 因为找不到更好的词 Let's just put it that way, for lack of a better term.
我们现在再看一遍 这与所有不同的情绪解读都是一致的 Um, we look now again. Now that goes with all the different sentiment readings.
我们有A-A-I-百分比的多头 额 下降了 回溯到90年代的历史水平在那些最低水平上被击中 We have the A-A-I uh percentage of bulls uh, way down, and historic levels that go only back to the nineties were hit in those lowest levels.
所以这是一个很好的起点 So this is a great starting point.
我们有这种看跌情绪是件好事 因为这可能迟早会导致触底 This is great to that we have this, this bearishness, because this could lead to a bottom sooner than later.
如果 相反 如果我们在这里有很多大胆的想法 嗯 好吧 人们正在做的是我想看到的 Um, if, as opposed, if we had a lot of bolishness here, uh, well, what people are doing is what I want to see.
同意人们所说的 Agree with what people are saying.
那时我们开始看投放的数据 我们看到市场上实际发生了什么 And that's when we start looking at the put numbers and we see what what are actually happening in the market.
我们还没有在任何接近我们想要看到的水平的地方看到这种类型的细胞关闭 And we haven't seen that in anywhere near the levels that we want to see with this type of cell off.
当然 如果我们打破低点 我的意思是 波动率开始回升 我们希望看到看跌量增加很多 这至少会导致短期的中期下跌 现在 一些评论 也有评论说 这可能是软着陆 好吧 等等 And certainly, if we undercut the lows, I mean, the balatility starts picking up, we're going to want to see the put volume pick up quite a bit here, and that's what can lead to at least a shorter intermediate term lo Now, some of the comments, there also are comments that this could be a soft landing, all right, and and that.
当然 你知道 很多专家 甚至美联储成员 开始失去信誉 因为现在我们开始考虑通货膨胀的短暂性 然后它将是供应链只是暂时的 And of course, you know, a lot of these pundits are, even the FED members, are starting to lose credibility, because now we start off with of the inflation's transitory, and then it'll be the supply chains are just temporary.
你知道 这是不可能的 And, you know, that is just not panned out that way.
你知道 我们现在看到通货膨胀不是短暂的 You know, we we see now that the inflation is not transitory.
供应链没有恢复 Supply chains are not coming back.
嗯 现在还在讨论软着陆 这是可能的 Um. And now still talking about a soft landing, which is possible.
我们现在可能会有软着陆 We may have a soft landing right now.
如果你看看每周领先指标指数E-C-R-I 每周领先指数 我们还没有接近这些水平 If you look at the weekly leading index of of indicators, E-C-R-I, weekly in leading index, we are not in where near those levels.
为了达到这个目标 我看一下-5 -10的水平 那将开始表明衰退是可能的 To get down to that, where I look at the minus five, minus ten level, that would start to indicate that recession is probable.
我们看到的很多事情都表明我们还没有看到经济衰退 但美联储会策划经济衰退 And and a lot of things that we look at say that we we're not looking at a recession just yet, but the Fed will engineer recession.
我的意思是 如果这里的通货膨胀率继续上升 我们会得到另一个 你知道 一个糟糕的相关通货膨胀报告 你可以打赌 美联储会更严厉地踩刹车 最终导致经济衰退 I mean, if inflation keeps going up here, we get another, uh, you know, a bad relate inflation report, You can bet that the Fed is gonna step on the brakes even harder and eventually engineer recession.
所以 有一种观点认为有可能实现软着陆 So, uh, there's this idea that there's a soft landing possible.
如果我们在短期内实现软着陆 就像我之前指出的那样 我们可能会出现快速削弱的情况 And if we get this soft landing in the in, you know, in the shorter term, we could have a situation, like I pointed out before, where we get a quick undercut.
这就是这种情绪的原因 我认为 嗯 这可能是一种情况 因为我们已经非常悲观 如果我们开始得到一些负面消息 谁知道会有什么消息 你知道 乌克兰 或或一些经济方面的消息 我们削弱这些打击 也许我们甚至会出现某种恐慌 抛售 抛售 And this is where this sentiment, I think, um, is saying that this might be the scenario, because we're already so bearish that if we start getting some negative news, and who knows what comes out of, you know, ukraine, or or some some news on the economy, and we undercut these blows, maybe we even get some type of panic, blow off, sell off.
好吧 那可能会导致非常快的转变 因为我们已经从基础开始 情绪是相当悲观的 Well, that could lead to that very quick turnaround, because we're coming already from the base that that that the sentiment is quite bearish.
我们会看到看跌情绪变得非常非常严重 And we would see bearishness get really, really thick.
我认为 如果我们开始大幅降低价格 I think, if we start undercutting these lows significantly.
这就把我们带回了我的先例 我说的是1998年的情况 And that would bring us back to my precedent, where I was talking about the 1998 scenario.
嗯 现在 你将再次观察波动 因为 正如我指出的 当你超过维克30的标记 很多人指出 你知道 这些是 这些是底部的水平 Um. Now again, you will watch volatility, because, as I point out, when you get above the 30 mark on the Vicks, lot of people point out that, you know, these are, these are levels that you have bottoms at.
这是真的 你不能 我会观察波动性是否会回升 是否会突破那些低点 我会观察触底的迹象 That's true. You you couldn't. I would watch for if we get the volatility to pick up and we undercut those lows, I would watch for signs of a bottom.
然而 你也必须认识到这样一个事实 即当你得到那种类型的波动时 主要的熊市也开始了 However, you also have to be cognizant that of the fact that major bear markets also start when you get that type of volatility.
所以我们已经下跌了一些 在一些平均水平上 我们确实有很多情绪 所以可能有很多更好的情绪 但可能波动性的增加会导致那个低点 So we have come down a bit already, and some of the averages, we do have a lot of sentiments, so maybe a lot of better sentiment, but so maybe a pickup in the volatility can lead to that low.
但同样 不要扰乱这种波动性 But again, don't mess with this volatility.
别在这耍花招 Don't start trying to get tricky here.
试着选择一个低点 等它过去 让我们等更好的 Try to pick a low. Just just wait it out, and let's wait for some better.
还有很多工作要做 There's still a lot of work to be done.
当我们回顾过去软着陆的所有数据时 我们的数据远远高于这些情况 我们的数据与这些情况不相符 所以我们不太可能实现软着陆 When we look at all the numbers of the past soft landings, we're we're way above, we're we're at numbers that aren't in line with those scenarios, so it's not totally likely that we have, uh, a soft landing.
这里要小心 嗯 Got to be careful here. Um.
现在 圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德的评论 Now, comments made by a Bullard, president Federal Reserve of St.
当然 路易斯表示 他认为目前的形势看起来像是94年 也就是美联储在2月初加息 直到95年7月才开始放松政策的时候 Louis, of course, said that he believes the situation looks like 94, and this is when the Fed raised rates in early February and and didn't start easing until July of 95.
实际上 我一直等到市场回到过去 当市场进入新高时 我甚至没有开始大举投资 直到市场已经进入新高 I actually waited till the market went back then, when the market went into new highs, I didn't even start really investing heavily until the market had already been well into new high grounds.
这段时间我记得很清楚 也因为1995年是我人生中最重要的一年 I remember this period quite well, also because 1995 was one of my biggest years ever.
那一年我的股价上涨了400% I was up over 400% that year.
对我来说 这是改变人生的一年 就我的个人账户而言 It was sort of a life changing year for me, as far as my personal account was concerned.
是的 是500 对 大约8 9% Yes, it be 500, correct, about 8.9 %.
当然 我刚才说的那次攀爬 从94号到95号 And and then of course, that climb that I was just talking about, uh, that went from, uh, 94 to 95.
那时有很多荒凉的地方 就像现在一样 你有一堵担心的墙 它爬了上去 There was a lot of barishness then, just similar to now, where you had this wall of worry where it climbed it.
你可以看到我们有一个非常好的效率 You can see it how we had a really nice efficient.
这是一个宽松的美元环境 This was an easy dollar environment.
好吧 所以我认为隧道的尽头也有一些光明 Okay, so I think there's some light at the end of the tunnel either.
如果我们有98年的情况 我们可以很快回到比赛 If we have the 98 scenario, we could be back to the races pretty quick.
如果我们有94的情况 好吧 它可能会花时间在这里 但然后我们可能会从那里开始 用这些作为优先级 If we have the 94 scenario, well, it may take time to base here, but then we might have a really great run from there, using these as as precedence.
现在 你需要小心了 这是很多人犯的错误 Now, well, you need to be careful about here, and this is what a lot of people where they make the mistake.
我在2000年看到过这种情况 在99年失败之后 I saw this happen in 2000, after the 99 blow off.
所有这些股票都是当时的领头羊 思科 微软 家得宝 戴尔 电脑 我可以一直说下去 很多公司 高通 他们都爆了 然后每个人都认为他们是廉价的 尝试抄底 他们在之后的10年或20年里表现不佳 我认为现在很多公司都是这样 比如Netflix All these stocks that were the leaders back then, cisco, microsoft, home Depot, dell, computer, and I can go on and on and on, So many names, qualcomm, they all blew up, and then everybody thought they were bargains and tried the bottom fish em and they underperformed for for a decade or two after that's where I think a lot of these are right now, like Netflix.
嗯 再一次 人们指出 我已经在网上看到了这个 你知道 好吧 你以前来过这里 Um. And again, people are pointing out, already, I've seen this online, where, you know, okay, well, you've been here before.
下跌74% 下跌79% Down 74 per cent, down 79 %.
我们现在跌了70% 当你掌握这一点的时候 这可能是一个买入的机会 We're down 70% now. This is probably going to be a buying opportunity by the time you get a handle on that.
这种情况你已经见过很多次了 You've seen this happen over and over.
如果投资是那么容易 下次再发生的时候就去做吧 If investing was that easy, that just do it the next time it happens.
我的意思是 每个人都是通过交易成为百万富翁的 I mean, everybody be multi millionaires from trading.
事情不是那样的 It just doesn't work that way.
现在的情况也有点不同 我认为 随着 你知道 随着Netflix发生的事情 The scenario is a bit different now, too, I think, with with, you know, with what's happening with Netflix.
Netflix 你知道的 他们正在被侵蚀 Netflix, uh, you know, they're, they're eroding.
他们的基本面受到了侵蚀 They have some eroding fundamentals here.
股票已经走了很长一段路 我们似乎进入了一个空白的市场 长期来看 这些过去的领导者 And the stock has come a long way, and we look like we've entered into a bare market, into these past leaders, secularly, on a secular basis.
这就是为什么5080规则在这里激增 That's why the 5080 rule is proliferating here.
58规则指出 一个过去的领导者 一个主要的领导者 一个市场的关键领导者 一旦它达到一个长期的顶部 它下跌80%的可能性是50% The 58 rule states that a past leader, A-A major leader, a key leader in the market, once it tops and puts in a secular top, is a 50% chance that it goes down 80 %.
有80%的几率下跌50% In an 80% chance that it goes down 50 %.
现在 你可以回去看看这些名字中的payPal和square 尽管有一些名字还不错 你知道 可能像亚马逊和苹果 我们将看到它们在不久的将来会发生什么 Now, you could just go back and look at pay Pal and square in all these names, notwithstanding a few names that have held up, you know, relatively well, like maybe an Amazon and an Apple, which we'll see what happens with them in the coming here in the near future, too.
但最重要的是 你有大量的股票下跌了50%到80% 甚至超过80% But the bottom line is, you have just a plethora of stocks that are down 50 to 80, and even more than 80 %.
我的意思是 这可能是自99年到2000年以来 我见过的最大的5080次下跌之一 I mean, this is probably the one of the biggest 5080 declines that I've seen since, of course, 99 going to 2000.
上面 再一次 这是增殖 Top. So again, this is proliferating.
通常情况下 股市不仅会下跌这么多 还会出现反弹 你知道 你可能会一路反弹 对吧 And what normally happens is, not only do they go down this much, but you might get rallies, you know, you might get rallies along the way, uh?
但通常是表现不佳的人 这就是思科在2000年达到顶峰时的情况 But usually the underperform. This is what happened to Cisco back in when it topped in 2000.
你偏离正轨 大概有15年 20年吧 You went sideways for, you know, a decade and a half, two decades, I think.
现在 思科已经对它的老眼睛产生了影响 而且已经过去了20多年 Now, cisco is an impact to its old eyes yet, and it's over 20 years later.
如果你回到70年代 这发生在施乐公司 发生在伊士曼柯达雅芳公司 So if you go back to the seventies, this happened with Xerox, this happened with Eastman kodak avon products.
你知道 你可以追溯到50年代 60年代 70年代 80年代 这没关系 无论什么周期 都是一样的事情 一遍又一遍的领导者让每个人相信他们的平等 这些高质量的公司 他们不会衰落 You know, you can go to the fifties, the sixties, the seventies, the eighties, it doesn't matter, whatever cycle, it's the same thing over and over the leaders that convince everybody that their equality, these quality companies, they can't go down.
他们表现优异 然后表现不佳 They top, and then they underperform.
你要么损失一大笔钱 要么表现逊于市场 And you either you lose a bunch of money or you underperform the market.
不管怎样 这不是我们要做的 Either way, that's not what we're trying to do.
嗯 家得宝(homeDepot) 这是我对家得宝的负面评价 Um, home Depot. This is when I got negative on home depot.
回到2000年 利润还在增长 再往前看 利润只有原来的一半 股票表现不佳 Uh, back in going into 2000, again, where the earnings were growing, and then see, going forward, the earnings row at half the rate, and the stock underperformed.
不 在那里待了快十年了 No, for for almost a decade there.
戴尔电脑也是如此 Um, same thing with Dell computer.
90年代的增长是惊人的 然后它开始减速 然后股票终于顶了 Now it was, the growth was amazing to the nineties, and then it started decelerating, then the stock finally top.
你可以看到 是的 你会看到反弹 如果你恰好敏锐地看到底部 或者 你知道 And you can see, yes, you get rallies if you happen to be clear voyant and pick the bottom, or, you know,
你在短期交易这些股票 you're trading some of these, uh uh, these stocks on a short term basis.
但总的来说 在潘趣酒盆上的派对已经过去了 But the big picture is the the parties over the punch bowl's gone.
当我努力的时候 And And when I'm trying
这里要指出的是 你必须寻找新的领导 新的名字 你不知道的名字 可能你不舒服的名字 因为他们不是獠牙的股票 亚马逊 谷歌 to point out here is you have to look for new leadership, new names, names that you don't know, names that maybe you're uncomfortable with, because they're not the the the fang Stocks, the Amazons, the Googles.
是时候停止考虑那些名字了 开始考虑下一个周期的新名字 It's time to stop thinking about those names and start thinking about new names for the next cycle.
说到名字和集团 石油 运输 钢铁 所有周期性股票 即使是防御型股票 我们也有超市 Speaking of names and groups, oil, transportation, the same, steel, all cyclical stocks, even in defensive names, we got supermarkets.
公用事业公司占据了主导地位 Um utilities are all dominating the the group leader list.
这些都是熊市组或周期性组 And those are, that's all bear market groups or cyclical groups.
所以 增长现在完全不受欢迎 So again, the growth is completely out of favor right now.
所以我们必须非常小心 So we've got to be real careful here.
是的 你知道 有一些领域一直在发挥作用 你可以交易 石油股票一直很好 在一些领域真的很好 但仍然有很多波动 Yes, there are areas that, you know, have been working, and you can trade course, the oil stocks have been pretty good, really good in some areas, but still, there's a lot of volatility.
我们正处于一个100%的空白市场 We are in a bare market, absolutely 100 %.
在一个空荡荡的市场 我们看到了不祥的短期行动 In a bare market, we have see ominous short term action here.
我们的风险模型自11月22日以来一直是负面的 Our risk model has negatives been negative since november 22.
所以直到你在这方面看到一些改善 直到你在股票市场上看到改善 你知道的 So until you see some improvement in that, until you see improvement with the stock action, uh, you know.
我们没有理由在这个市场上咄咄逼人 甚至没有理由真正进入这个市场 There's no reason to get aggressive in this market, or even really to be in this market.
我是说 你应该把钱藏起来 I mean, you should pipe being cash.
但当然 正如我一直说的 你知道 投资了1020 5% But certainly, as I've said for a long time now, you know, 1020, 5% invested.
如果这是有效的 移动到50 但只有在强度的脚跟 If that's working, move it up to 50, but only on the heels of of strength.
拉回测试失败 我们曾试图在市场上挽回局面 但失败了 Pull back test failed. We tried to pull back here in the market, it's been a failure.
看来我们要重新测试低点了 至少在一些指数上是这样 Looks like we're going to retest the lows, at least on some of the indexes.
乌克兰的通货膨胀率是不利因素 Head winds are inflation rates, ukraine.
这是最大警戒时间 好了 我答应过你们我要讲 杰克逊金融公司的J-X-N 所以我想回到这个话题 This is maximum caution time. All right, now, I promised you guys I was going to talk about, um, uh, jackson Financial J-X-N, so I want to go back to this.
我们之前说过这个 这是我刚才展示的图表 当我们脱离这个支点时 记得我说过 它是在一个好的市场中脱离支点 这是一次很好的买入 We talked about this before. This is the chart that I showed a little while back, and how, when we came out of that pivot, remember I said, you know, it's coming out of a pivot in a good market, this is a great buy.
但在这个市场 可能发生的情况可能与体育用品的装饰类似 But in this market, what might happen is it might be similar to what happened to deck sporting goods.
我在这里买的牌 看这里 当它裂开的时候 它在一个小缺口上 但这个缺口不够大 不足以脱离枢轴 我就在这里买了它 I bought decks right here. And see right here, as it was breaking out, it was on a little gap, but the gap wasn't big enough, uh, to get away from the pivot, and I bought it right there.
我第一天过得很好 结果迪克成了大赢家 I had a great 1st day, and dick's turned out to be a big winner.
你在这里看到的是当迪克建立好的时候 在这里 这是相似的 What you can see here is is that that while Dick was setting up all right, and over here, this is similar.
这和杰克逊最近在这里发生的事件很相似 This is a similar breakout to where Jackson was right here just recently.
但是你可以看到这条实线到达了新的低点 But you see this solid line right here goes to new lows.
这就是市场 这是标准普尔500指数再创新低 That's the market. That's the S-P 500 hitting a new low.
当它达到一个新的低点时 你可以看到鸡巴是如何停留在底部然后收紧的 And while it hits a new low, you can see how dick just stays in the base and then tightens up.
当你从低谷中走出来 你在市场上取得了第一个优势 现在你有了这个领导者 And as you come off the lows and you make that 1st leg up in the market, now you've got this leader coming out.
现在 如果我们快进看看杰克逊现在发生了什么 我不知道这是否肯定不会 Now, if we fast forward and take a look at what's going on with Jackson right now now, I don't know if this is gonna certainly not.
不要因为它在这里坚挺就去投机买它 Don't speculate and buy this just because it's it's holding up here.
你得等着 确保它能正常运转 You have to wait make sure it sets up and breaks out.
所以我们但是我们这就是我们想要寻找的 Um, so we're but we're this is what we want to look for.
这是你在市场调整和新低时要寻找的 或者在波动中立足于此 This is the type of thing you want to look for while the market is correcting and going to new lows, or or basing out here in his voltile.
你要找到那些正在平静下来的股票 它们正在非常安静地为突破做准备 You want to find the stocks that are quieting down and are setting up, and very quietly, are are setting up for that breakout.
接下来会发生的是 当出现最大的尴尬 所有人都做空的时候 因为市场触及新的低点 在低点之后 你会看到这类股票会打破它们的基础 And what's gonna happen is when there's maximum embarrassedness and everybody's bears, because the market's hitting new lows, and right off the lows, you're going to have these type of names are going to break out of their basis.
发生的是大多数投资者 MS And what happens is most investors, MS.
这是因为他们太专注于市场了 他们看新闻时太害怕和紧张了 他们被一堆名字阻止了 他们甚至没有想到要看肺 these because they're so concentrating on the market, and they're so scared and nervous watching the news, and they just got stopped out of a bunch of names that they're not even thinking of looking at the lungs.
所以我今天要做很多筛选工作 So I'll be doing a lot of screening today.
嗯 再说一遍 我不认为这是我们现在想要娱乐的东西 但我们需要 Um. And again, I don't think it's it's something we want to entertain right this 2nd, but we need to.
现在是时候了 你得非常仔细地看 This is the time. You got to watch real carefully.
这段时间你要专心做功课 做好准备 This is the time to be attentive and do your homework and get ready.
现在不是说 哦 市场不好的时候 It's not a time to walk away and say, oh, the market's bad here.
我一个月后再来 I'll come back a month from now.
不 现在是领导人站出来的时候 你必须开始寻找他们 掩护他们 去寻找复活节彩蛋 No, this is the time where the leaders stand out, and you've got to start searching for them and undercovering and and going to that Easter egg hunt.
嗯 现在 看看这里 Um. Now, take a look here.
如果我们跌至新低 你会看到这就是我们想看到的 股票的VCP走势与V-C-P走势相结合 而市场却分崩离析 If we go to new lows, you see this is what we want to see, the VCP action to the V-C-P action in a stock, while the markets fallen apart.
我们要找缩略词的元音 We're looking for that vowel to the contraction.
这是我的签名当然是一种模式 你也知道 That's my signature A-A pattern, of course, as you know.
好吧 让我做一些筛选 All right, so let me do some screening.
等着瞧吧 也许明天就会有生物菌名单了 We'll see, maybe we'll have a biolert list tomorrow.
我会和你们聊天 或者在明天1130的时候回答你们的问题 我们看看这周会发生什么 I'll talk to you guys, or will answer your questions during cue and a at 1130 tomorrow, and we'll see what the week brings.
就像我说的 现在 我对短期内的前景非常悲观 或者应该说 我非常谨慎 Like I said, right now, I'm very negative in the in the short term, or or very cautious, I should say.
我们要保持粉末干燥 当我们把它取出来的时候要非常非常小心 And just want to just keep our powder dry and just be really, really careful here as we come off of this.
这很糟糕的衣服在周末 上周 This very bad clothes at the end of the week, last week.
好了 还有最后一件事 All right, one last thing too.
嗯 我们有这种新产品 Um. We do have this this new product
我们将成为M-P-A的一部分 这让我非常兴奋 that we which is gonna be part of M-P-A, which I am super excited about.
这绝对是惊人的 我认为这将是 不管在图表之外 价格和数量的主导 It's absolutely amazing. I think it's gonna be, notwithstanding or outside of charts, price and volume in charge.
我认为 I think
这可能是对股票交易或股票监控最大的贡献之一 this might be one of the greatest contributions to, uh, to stock trading or stock monitoring out there.
当我释放这个的时候 我认为这就是它的大小 When I released this, that's how big I think this is.
这是一款非常棒的产品 我们的Monolert产品已经完成了编程很快就可以发布了 在几周内 我想这周或下周 我会做一个关于它的教程向你们展示我们有什么 你们可以免费使用什么 It's a great, great product. Our Monolert product that is finally been been programmed and is ready for release very soon, within a number of weeks, I think this week or next week, I'm going to do a tutorial on it and show you exactly what we have, what you're going to have access to for no additional cost.
它将成为你的 它们将成为私人访问平台 我会讲到这一点 It's going to be part of your your, uh, they're going to be private access platform, and I'll go over that.
所以我真的很兴奋 So I'm real excited about that.
好了 待会再聊 Okay, talk to you guys later.
祝你今天过得愉快 Have a good rest of the day.
再见 再见 Bye, bye.