所以对乌克兰人来说 俄罗斯军队确实是强敌 So the Russian military is really an overmatch for the Ukrainians.
有可能很快就会演变成一场暴动 It will probably quickly dissolve into sort of an insurgency,
就像在伊拉克和阿富汗看到的那样 like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan.
消息人士说 美国官员担心 Sources say officials in the US
基辅可能在几天内落入俄罗斯之手 fear that Kyiv could fall to Russia within days.
俄罗斯对我们的军事设施和边防人员 Russia carried out strikes on our military infrastructure
进行了袭击 and border guards.
（2022年2月23日 弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基）
乌克兰许多城市都听到了爆炸声 In many Ukrainian cities, explosions were heard.
他们正在飞向机场 轰炸机场 They are flying towards the airport, bombing the airport.
可以听到正在交战 You can hear that there is a battle.
（乌克兰）
去基辅最快的方法是经过戈斯托梅利 Fastest way to Kyiv was through Hostomel.
（基辅 戈斯托梅利）
他们向机场设施开火 Uh, they opened fire on the airport facilities.
（基辅郊外的戈斯托梅利机场）
（AN-225 梦想运输机 全世界最大的战略运输机）
（维塔利·鲁登科中校 乌克兰国民警卫队）
你可以看到被烧毁的梦想运输机 You can see the destroyed, burned Mriya.
是俄罗斯人... Eh, the Russians...
使用 hit it
一枚非制导导弹击中的 with an unguided missile.
他们直接飞到跑道上 They flew straight to the runway
开始攻击我们的防空部队 and started hitting our air defense units.
一 二 三 四 五 六 One, two, three, four, five, six,
七 八 seven, eight.
他们没有想到会有抵抗 They did not expect resistance.
我们开始击落直升机 We began shooting down choppers
摧毁俄罗斯军队 and to destroy Russian troops.
太好了! Yes! Yes!
这是基辅的第一道防线 This was the first line of defense of Kyiv.
两天来 我们的士兵没有让他们降落 For two days, our boys did not let them land.
（谢尔盖·索洛琴科 志愿者）
俄国人确实设法占领了机场 The Russians did manage to capture the airport.
但他们士气衰败了 But they lost momentum.
在撤到安全距离以外后 After we moved to a safe distance,
我们用大炮摧毁了机场 we used our artillery to damage the airfield.
这样我们就有时间调动防御力量 That way, we gained time to move the defense forces
阻止敌人入侵基辅了 to block the enemy from invading Kyiv.
如果俄军能够在那一刻取得成功 Had the Russian military been able to succeed in that moment,
那将能够使其把最精锐的部队 it would have been able to deliver its most elite forces
直接送到基辅的前线 straight to the front lines of Kyiv.
因此 乌克兰军队 So the ability of the Ukrainian military
成功在戈斯托梅利机场 to resist that airborne invasion
抵抗空中入侵 at the Hostomel Airport
可能是整场战争的转折点 is probably the turning point of the entire war.
他们没能进入基辅 于是裹步不前了 When they failed to parade into Kyiv, they froze.
逐渐演变成了一场全面战争 It turned into a full-scale war.
（基里洛·布达诺夫 乌克兰情报局）
《转折点：原子弹与冷战》
《第三章 体制疯狂》
在冷战初期 In the early years of the Cold War,
美国不仅把核武器 当作可以使用的东西 the United States treated nuclear weapons not only as if they were something
而且认为可以在核武器攻击下生存 that could be used, but something that could be survived.
（在原子弹袭击下生存）
让我们毫无惊慌地面对 Let us face, without panic,
当今时代的现实 the reality of our times,
原子弹有一天可能会落在我们的城市 the fact that atom bombs may someday be dropped on our cities.
让我们为生存做好准备 And let us prepare for survival.
20世纪50年代 人们付出巨大的努力 In the 1950s, there was an immense effort given
来完美地计划 核战争将如何在美国展开 to perfectly planning how nuclear war would unfold in the United States.
联邦政府发起了 And the federal government launches a whole series
一系列公众教育活动 of public education campaigns
让美国为核战争做好准备 to get America ready for nuclear war.
（目标 你）
你是那些践踏自由的人们的目标 You are the target of those who would trample the liberties of free men.
你正处在爆炸地点的准星上 You are in the crosshairs of the bomb sites.
敌人是... An enemy is...
美国向其公民传递的信息 The United States was providing messages to its citizens
既令人恐惧 又自相矛盾 that were simultaneously terrifying and not terribly coherent.
一方面 他们传达出信息 On the one hand, the message was that the Soviet Union
说苏联是一个恶魔般的国家 一心想要摧毁美国 was this diabolical nation that was hell-bent on American destruction.
这是一个威胁 That this was an existential threat.
今天 每个州 每个城市和城镇 Today, every state, every city and town,
都在敌人的打击范围之内 is within striking range of a determined enemy.
另一方面 联邦政府告诉美国人 遇到一场核灾难 On the other hand, it was telling Americans that a nuclear holocaust
是绝对可以劫后余生的 was absolutely survivable.
你可能会在核攻击中幸存下来 Something that you could probably survive by going to a fallout shelter
只要你前往辐射避难所 in the event of a nuclear attack,
或者在自家后院自建一个辐射避难所 or investing in a fallout shelter for your own backyard.
（民防）
他们在1950年 启动了一个名为"民防"的项目 They have a program that starts up in 1950 called "Civil Defense."
主要考虑是 我们不想 被这些武器攻击 但有这种可能性 The idea is, we don't want to be attacked by these weapons, but we might.
如果被袭击了 有些人会直接死掉 And if we do, yeah, some people are just gonna die straight out,
但会有人远离炸弹区域 but there are gonna be people who are at a distance from that bomb,
他们的做法就很重要了 where what they do matters.
先躲起来 然后寻找掩护 First, you duck, and then you cover.
躲避掩护是最早期的大型运动之一 Duck and Cover is one of the first big campaigns,
训练孩子们 在核弹来袭时躲到课桌底下 training children to get under their desks if a nuclear bomb is coming.
不是因为你的课桌有魔法 Not because your desk is magical.
如果炸弹把你和你的课桌 都烧成灰烬了 那课桌也没用 If the bomb incinerates you and your desk, your desk isn't gonna help.
但是因为有一定的距离 But because there are distances at which doing that
就可以防止天花板塌下来砸到你 is gonna prevent the ceiling collapsing on you,
这样你就有可能活下来 and you might survive that way.
警报器响了 A siren went off.
我们被要求列队进入走廊 We were all told to file into the hallway.
我们必须跪在地上 We had to get down on our hands and knees and put--
把手指放在脑后 Lace our fingers behind our heads
把我们的脑袋抵在储物柜的底部 and keep our heads against the base of the lockers.
我们在那里的时间太久了 我都抽筋了 We remained there for so long that I got cramped up.
然后校长来说："如果发生核战争 And then the principal came and said, "This is the way you must remain
你们必须保持这样 因为父母会来这里找你们 if there is a nuclear war because your parents will come here
前提是他们还能来" if they can and find you."
那句"前提是他们还能来" That phrase, "if they can,"
在我小时候 一直萦绕在我心里 stayed with me as a little girl for a very long time.
如同噩梦一般 Nightmares, nightmares, nightmares.
这种恐惧难以言喻 The fear is tremendous.
孩子们去上学都要佩戴狗牌 Children were wearing dog tags to school.
这种金属标识牌 This right here is the metal identification tag
就是我们敦促美国所有儿童和青少年 that we are urging every child and teenager in America to wear
尽快佩戴的 as soon as possible.
这些孩子要过多久才能意识到 How long did it take those children to realize,
"等等 这东西是为了 让父母以后能找到我的尸体的"? "Wait, this is so that my parents can find my body later"?
想到随时都可能发生核爆炸 And the idea that it could happen at any moment,
想到我们随时都离潜在的核爆炸 that we were minutes away at any time
只有几分钟的距离 from a potential nuclear blast,
而且造成的破坏可能是毁灭性的 and the damage could be devastating.
核战争几乎成为美国 Nuclear war becomes the backdrop
做所有事情的背景 of almost everything that takes place in America.
人们真切地感受到 共产主义正在大步向前 There was a real sense that communism was on the march.
共产主义正在世界范围内取得成功 That communism was succeeding around the world.
这种恐惧促使政府官员鼓励 "我们来研制更多的炸弹吧 That fear pushes government officials to encourage, "Let's develop more bombs."
我们来研制更大的炸弹吧" "Let's develop bigger bombs."
众所周知 这促使杜鲁门批准研制氢弹 It encourages Truman, famously, to approve developing the hydrogen bomb.
（1952年）
历史在遥远的太平洋中部 翻开了最不祥的一页... History turns its most ominous page far out in mid-Pacific,
（马绍尔群岛）
在埃尼威托克环礁 where in the Enewetak Atoll,
世界上最厉害的武器正在准备引爆 the world's most awesome weapon is readied for detonation.
陆海空三军在科学家的监督下 The Army, Navy, and Air Force work against time,
争分夺秒地... under the supervision of scientists,
（伊鲁吉拉伯岛 马绍尔群岛 埃尼威托克环礁）
研制热核武器 who have labored for years to develop the thermonuclear weapon.
从原子弹到热核弹的转变 The shift from an atomic bomb to thermonuclear bombs
是朝着比投向广岛和长崎的原子弹 is a move to weapons orders of magnitude larger
大几个数量级的武器转变 than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
热核装置不仅是一个更大的原子弹 A thermonuclear device is not just a larger atomic bomb.
这是一个完全不同的过程 It's a fundamentally different process.
原子弹依靠核裂变 原子分裂 An atomic bomb relies on nuclear fission, splitting of atoms,
而氢弹 热核装置 whereas a hydrogen bomb, a thermonuclear device,
依靠核聚变和原子的结合 relies on nuclear fusion and sort of the combination of atoms.
第一枚可爆炸的热核装置 The first workable thermonuclear device
在杜鲁门政府末期被研制出来了 comes in the closing days of the Truman Administration,
并进行了所谓的"迈克试爆" and it's tested in what was known as the "Mike Test."
（常春藤行动"迈克试爆" 1952年11月1日）
还有几分钟就能看到第一名飞行员 拍摄的常春藤行动"迈克试爆"画面了 We have minutes to go before the first flier's Mike shot of Operation Ivy.
如果一切按计划进行 If everything goes according to plan,
我们很快就会看到 地球上有史以来最大的一次爆炸 we'll soon see the largest explosion ever set off on the face of the Earth.
现在距离引爆时刻还有30秒 It is now 30 seconds to zero time.
请戴上护目镜或把头转过去 Put on goggles or turn away.
直到第一道光亮闪过十秒后 才可以摘下护目镜或面罩 Do not remove goggles or face burst until ten seconds after the first light.
"迈克试爆"非常成功 The Mike Test was a very successful test.
威力比预想的还要强大 It was even more powerful than it was expected to be.
相当于1050万吨TNT炸药 It was ten and a half million tons equivalent of TNT.
二六 接近原爆点 Two-six, approaching ground zero.
伊鲁吉拉伯岛彻底消失了 Elugelab is completely gone.
这里只剩海水了 Nothing there but water.
中间的岛屿轮廓就是 以前的伊鲁吉拉伯岛 即"原爆岛" The outlined island in the center is former Elugelab, "the zero island."
两侧与其他岛屿连接的部分已被炸断 Sections of the islands on either side have been chopped off.
弹坑的直径约为1.6公里 The crater is roughly a mile in diameter.
从侧面看 弹坑逐渐向下倾斜 最大深度 In profile, the crater gradually slopes down to a maximum depth
约为53米 of some 175 feet,
相当于17层楼的高度 or equivalent to the height of a 17-story building.
与纽约的天际线相比 Compared to the skyline of New York,
这意味着以帝国大厦为中心 this means that with the Empire State Building as zero point,
仅火球就能吞没 大约四分之一的曼哈顿岛 the fireball alone would engulf about one-quarter of the island of Manhattan.
这件事震惊了所有目击者 The event horrified and shocked everyone
或是看到相关报道的人 who witnessed it or read about it.
公众对此争论颇多 And you have a much more public debate about it,
包括曾参与曼哈顿计划的一些人 including real horror by some of the people
也表现出了真切的恐惧 who had been part of the Manhattan Project.
多年来 奥本海默 认为美国人民需要知道 For years, Oppenheimer believed that the American people needed to know
核军备竞赛的存在 that there was a nuclear arms race.
是否寻求国际原子能机构管控的决定 The decision to seek or not to seek international control of atomic energy,
是否尝试研制氢弹的决定 the decision to try to make or not to make the hydrogen bomb,
这些都源于复杂的技术问题 these are rooted in complex technical things.
但这些触及我们的道德底线了 But they touch the very basis of our morality.
这对我们来说是非常危险的 It is grave danger for us
这些决定都是根据保密的事实做出的 that these decisions are taken on the basis of facts held secret.
他想告诉美国人民 这些武器的破坏性有多大 He wanted to inform the American people of how destructive these weapons were.
阿尔伯特·爱因斯曾写到 Albert Einstein himself wrote,
"这将导致全人类的灭亡" "General annihilation beckons."
这些武器的破坏性如此之大 These were the kind of weapons that were so destructive
以至于总统们意识到 如果我们卷入核战争 that presidents realized that if we ever got involved in a nuclear war,
那会是文明的终结 对吗? it would be the end of civilization, right?
什么都不会留下 There would be nothing left.
（艾森豪威尔就职典礼 1953年1月20日）
艾森豪威尔当选后 Eisenhower, after he was elected,
得知了第一颗氢弹试爆的消息 was informed about the first hydrogen bomb test.
他当时被吓到了 He was just shaken.
在人类从黑暗 走向光明的漫漫朝圣之旅中 How far have we come in man's long pilgrimage,
我们已经走了多远了? from darkness toward the light?
我们接近光明了吗? Are we nearing the light?
全人类实现 自由与和平的一天到了吗? A day of freedom and of peace for all mankind?
（艾森豪威尔就职演说 1953年1月20日）
还是另一夜的夜幕正在向我们逼近? Or are the shadows of another night closing in upon us?
科学似乎已经准备好 Science seems ready to confer upon us
赐予我们最后的礼物了 as its final gift,
即把人类从这个星球上 the power to erase human life
彻底抹去的能力 from this planet.
苏联领导人 在得知此次试爆后也感到十分震惊 The Soviet leaders also were shocked when they read about this test.
负责整个警察系统 And Lavrentiy Beria,
以及情报机构的拉夫连季·贝利亚 who was in charge of the whole police and intelligence apparatus,
召集了一批已经在研究氢弹的科学家 pulls together scientists who have already been working on the hydrogen bomb,
他在写给斯大林的备忘录上说 and prepares a memo for Stalin saying,
"这将是非常昂贵的 但我们的敌人正在研制 "This will be very expensive, but our enemies are developing it,
所以我们也必须研制" so we have to develop it too."
1953年 苏联试爆了 所谓的夹心蛋糕设计... In 1953, the Soviet Union tested the so-called layer cake design,
其爆炸威力约为40万吨TNT炸药 which had a yield of about 400 kilotons.
这种情况会引发某种心理战 This situation then opens things up to a kind of war of nerves.
（马绍尔群岛 比基尼环礁）
1954年 美国准备引爆一次核爆炸 1954, and the US prepared to set off a nuclear explosion
其威力会使 广岛和长崎的原子弹爆炸相形见绌 that would dwarf the atomic blasts at Hiroshima and Nagasaki
使其只能与小型鞭炮相提并论 to the category of small firecrackers.
迄今为止试爆的 最新和威力最大的原子武器 The newest and most powerful atomic weapon yet tested
将在南太平洋马绍尔群岛中部引爆 was to be detonated in the South Pacific in the midst of the Marshall Islands.
（马绍尔群岛 比基尼环礁）
"喝彩城堡"试爆是在 The Castle Bravo test was done
位于太平洋核试验场的 比基尼环礁进行的 in the Pacific testing grounds at Bikini Atoll.
那里是美国早在20世纪40年代末 That was the location where one of the first American atomic bombs
第一次测试原子弹的地方 were tested back in the late 1940s.
太平洋的其他环礁上是有人居住的 There were people on the other atolls in the Pacific.
因此他们完全没有意识到 So they were completely unaware,
也没有做好应对氢弹爆炸的准备 unprepared to deal with the explosion of the hydrogen bombs.
"喝彩城堡"试爆 成为了核时代最可怕的时刻 The Castle Bravo test becomes the scariest moment yet of the nuclear age.
我们并不真正了解热核弹的工作原理 We didn't really understand how thermonuclear bombs worked,
当天在场的科学家和军方领导人 and the scientists and the military leaders
都被自己看到的景象吓坏了 who were present that day were horrified by what they saw
因为他们看到的爆炸 其规模和威力 because what they saw was a bomb that went off several times larger
都比他们想象的要大好几倍 and more powerful than anything that they had imagined.
（"喝彩城堡"试爆 1954年3月1日）
"喝彩城堡"试爆的爆炸威力 本来是700万吨级的 The Bravo test was meant to be seven megatons,
但结果却是1500万吨级 but it turned out it was 15 megatons.
事实证明 爆炸规模比我们想象的大三倍 It turns out to be three times larger than anything we had imagined.
1500万吨的爆炸威力 Fifteen megatons of explosive power.
一个6.4公里宽的火球 A four-mile-wide fireball
所及之处 几乎所有东西都蒸发殆尽 that evaporates almost everything in its path.
当地人居住的环礁和岛屿 The atolls and islands populated by the natives
都受到了辐射的影响 were affected by the radiation.
他们中的许多人 都能看到爆炸产生的蘑菇云在上升 Many of them could see the mushroom of that explosion going up.
他们说太阳其实是从西边升起的 They were talking about the sun actually coming from the west
而不是东边 instead of coming from the east.
我是在岛上长大的 I grew up on the island.
（内森·劳孔 马绍尔群岛公民）
我记得人们总是生病 I remember people were really, really sick all the time.
婴儿出生时 他们的后脑没有脑壳 你知道吗? Babies were born, and no shell to the back of their head, you know?
可以看到他们的大脑 You could see their brain.
比基尼环礁周围区域 The area around Bikini Atoll,
即所谓的安全区 the so-called security area and zone,
所有的船只都被清空了 was cleared from all the ships.
或者说至少他们努力这样做了 Or at least they tried to do that.
但有一艘日本渔船 福龙五号 But one of the Japanese trailers, Lucky Dragon,
最终出现在爆炸区域内了 ended up in the area of the explosion.
氢弹的破坏力太强大了 The destructive power of the hydrogen bomb was so powerful that
远远超出了试爆氢弹的美国人的估计 it far exceeded the estimates of Americans who tested it.
所以即使船只在安全区外... So even though the ship was outside the security zone,
（田中照美 长崎幸存者 反核倡导者）
...依然有很多放射性沉降物 there was a lot of radioactive fallout.
我们称之为死亡灰烬 We called it the death ash.
这是一桩国际丑闻 It was an international scandal.
日本是唯一遭到核武器袭击的国家 Japan, the only country hit by nuclear weapons,
也成了这种新武器的首批受害者之一 becomes one of the first casualties of this new weapon too.
渔夫的遗愿是 The fisherman's dying wish is,
"让我做最后一个 被这种可怕武器杀死的人" "Let me be the last person killed by this awful weapon."
我们当时并不知道如何使用核弹 We didn't really know how to use nuclear bombs.
这是一项新技术 This was a new technology,
军方需要学习如何使用其作战 and the military needed to learn how to fight with it.
他们学习的方式 And the way that they learned
就是在全世界发射大量核弹 was by firing off a lot of nuclear bombs all over the world...
包括在拉斯维加斯的沙漠 进行国内核试验 ...including domestic nuclear testing in the desert above Las Vegas.
这可能是美国 This is probably the high watermark
公开核战争计划的最高潮 of the nation's public nuclear war planning.
有文件和计划显示 There were documents and plans
美国政府将如何在各个方面 showing how every aspect of the US government
领导一个遭受核战争破坏的国家 could lead a nuclear war-damaged country.
我从海军陆战队退役后 以顾问的身份来到兰德公司 I arrive at Rand as a consultant, having gotten out of the Marines.
我被分配到一个研究小组 I was assigned to a study group working on a problem then
研究如何阻止俄罗斯发动突然袭击 从而基本上解除我们的武装 of deterring a Russian surprise attack that would disarm us basically,
由他们实际统治世界 and let them, in effect, rule the world.
从道义上讲 It seemed morally almost obligatory
培养以牙还牙的能力似乎是必须的 to try to develop an ability to retaliate in kind.
这是一群非常聪明的人 This was a very smart bunch.
包括我在兰德公司的导师 阿尔伯特·沃斯泰特 Including my mentor at Rand, Albert Wohlstetter,
还有我的朋友赫尔曼·卡恩 and my friend Herman Kahn.
他们是我接触过的最聪明的一群人 The smartest group of people I ever did associate with.
顺便说一句 事实证明 It turns out, by the way,
聪明并不代表拥有智慧 intelligence is not a very good guarantee of wisdom.
威慑是一门艺术 能使敌人对进攻 Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy
产生恐惧 the fear to attack.
在电影《奇爱博士》中 In the movie Dr. Strangelove,
很多台词都摘自赫尔曼·卡恩 many of the words are taken from Herman Kahn,
在《论热核战争》一书中 the leader... inventor of the doomsday machine,
对领导者和末日机器发明者的讨论 on his book on thermonuclear war.
末日机器是可怕的 The doomsday machine is terrifying.
这很容易理解 It's simple to understand.
也完全可信 令人信服 And completely credible and convincing.
天啊 真希望 我们也有一台末日机器 斯坦西 Gee, I wish we had one of them doomsday machines, Stainesey.
你看那部电影时 是如何看待奇爱博士的? What did you think of Dr. Strangelove when you saw that movie?
看吧 那就是一部纪录片 See, that was a documentary.
《奇爱博士》里的一切 都是有可能发生的 Everything in Dr. Strangelove could have happened.
总统先生 Mr. President...
大约35分钟前 ...about, uh, 35 minutes ago,
伯珀森空军基地的指挥官 General Jack Ripper,
杰克·里珀将军 the commanding general of, um, Burpelson Air Force Base,
向他负责的 34架B-52战斗机下达了指令 issued an order to the 34 B-52s of his wing,
这些战斗机当时正在空中飞行 which were airborne at the time,
这是我们正在进行的 名为"空投行动"的特别演习的一部分 as part of a special exercise we were holding called Operation Dropkick.
现在看来 指令要求飞机 Now, it appears that the order called for the planes
攻击俄罗斯境内的目标 to attack their targets inside Russia.
这些飞机全副武装 每架平均装载 The planes are fully armed with nuclear weapons
4000万吨级爆炸威力的核武器 with an average load of, um, 40 megatons each.
只有总统才有权发射这些武器的说法 The notion that only the president had the authority
纯属无稽之谈 to launch those weapons was a myth.
-不是吗? 所以... -从来都不是真的 - That's not true? So... - It has never been true.
还有很多人可以发射 Many other people can launch this.
不只是参谋长联席会议 Not only the Joint Chiefs.
一直以来都有这样的安排 如果有更低级别人员 There have always been arrangements for lower-level people,
认为战争正在进行 if they believe that a war is going on,
或者如果通讯被切断 他们就会可以发射这些武器 or if communications are cut off, to launch those weapons.
那你为什么不用无线电 通知飞机取消指令呢? Then why haven't you radioed the planes countermanding the go code?
恐怕我们无法 与任何一架飞机取得联系 Well, I'm afraid we're unable to communicate with any of the aircraft.
当电影中的空军司令 巴克·特吉德森 When Buck Turgidson, the head of the Air Force in the movie,
对总统说 says to the president,
"飞机已经起飞 不能召回了 "The planes are sent off and can't be recalled."
他们没有理由不去 他们已经在路上了" "They might as well go now. They're on their way."
这几乎就是空军的态度 That was an Air Force attitude, pretty much.
我想很多人都没有意识到 艾森豪威尔曾说过 I don't think too many people realize that Eisenhower had said
不会有用于 与苏联进行局部战争的计划 there's to be no planning for limited war with the Soviets.
在兰德公司 我可以全面接触到战争计划 At Rand, I was given full access to the war plans.
我是少数看到那些计划的平民之一 I was one of a handful of civilians who did see these plans,
那些计划既奇怪又可怕 and they were strange and horrible.
可怕极了 Uh, terrible plans.
那些似乎是有史以来最糟糕的计划 They seemed like the worst plans that had ever existed.
艾森豪威尔认为 与苏联的任何战争 Eisenhower felt any fighting with Soviets,
即使一开始规模很小 even if it starts small,
也会很快升级为更大规模的战争 is going to escalate very quickly to a larger war.
在艾森豪威尔执政时期 这意味着全面核战争 And under Eisenhower, that meant full-scale nuclear war.
我们期待一个和平与合作的世界 We anticipated a world of peace and cooperation.
咄咄逼人的共产主义蓄意施加的压力 The calculated pressures of aggressive communism
反而迫使我们 生活在一个动荡的世界里 have forced us instead to live in a world of turmoil.
计划是用热核武器 袭击俄罗斯和中国的每一座城市 The plan was to hit every city in Russia and China with thermonuclear weapons.
用氢弹 H-bombs.
我想如果他们知道 总共会有多少人因此丧生 So I thought that it would put them off-balance
他们会大为吃惊的 to know how many people altogether would be killed by this.
因此我起草了一个问题 So I drafted a question, one among many,
作为国防部长提交给 参谋长联席会议的众多问题之一 to be given to the Joint Chiefs by the Secretary of Defense.
"如果执行你们的计划 "If you carried out your plans,
仅在俄罗斯和中国 就会有多少人丧生呢? " how many people would be killed in Russia and China alone?"
我真以为他们不会有答案的 I really thought they wouldn't have an answer.
但他们确实有答案 而且是最高机密 But they did have an answer, and it was top secret.
只给总统看的 "For the president's eyes only."
这张图表的横轴是"时间" 以月为单位 And it's a graph with, on the horizontal axis, "time" in months,
纵轴是以百万计的死亡人数 and then millions of dead on the vertical axis.
这条线是从2.75亿人开始的 The line began at 275 million people.
在接下来的六个月里 随着放射性尘埃造成的死亡人数增加 And it rose, as fallout killed people over the next six months,
数字会上升到3.25 亿人 to 325 million people.
这仅是俄罗斯和中国 This was Russia and China alone.
于是我又提出了我草拟的另一个问题 So I sent another question that I'd drafted.
"总共会死多少人呢? " "How many all together?"
他们花了一周时间来回答此问题 但这次是以表格的形式 And that just took them a week to answer, but this time in the form of a table.
另有一亿死亡人口 在东欧的卫星国 波兰 Another hundred million in the satellites of East Europe, Poland,
匈牙利 罗马尼亚 and Hungary, Romania.
在西欧 另有一亿人口的生死取决于风向 In West Europe, another hundred million depending on which way the wind blew.
还有三亿人口 居住在与俄罗斯接壤的地方 And a third hundred million in areas contiguous to the Soviet Union
如阿富汗 日本 印度 like Afghanistan, Japan, and India.
所以 So the total,
加上俄罗斯和中国的3.25亿人口 in addition to the 325 million in Russia and China,
总死亡人数是6亿 was 600 million.
一百场大屠杀 A hundred Holocausts.
（苏联和中国）
（总死亡人数）
当时的世界人口 Now, the population of the world at that time
有30亿 杀死6亿 was 3,600,000,000.
这是世界人口的五分之一 That's one-fifth of the world's population.
我觉得这是人类历史上 It struck me as the most evil and insane plan
最邪恶和最疯狂的计划 that had ever existed in the history of humanity.
这是体制疯狂 This is institutional insanity.
艾森豪威尔上台后 就开始了这项战略 When Eisenhower came in, he initiated this policy.
即"新面貌"战略 The "New Look" policy.
"新面貌"战略是美国首次 "New Look" was, for the first time,
保留进行大规模报复的权利 the Americans reserve the right to use massive retaliation
只要美国认为其重要的国家安全利益 if it felt that its vital national security interests
在世界上任何地方受到威胁了 were under threat anywhere in the world.
苏联人立刻转过身来 说了同样的话 And the Soviets immediately turned around and said the same thing.
于是他们冻结了战场 当然是欧洲战场 So it froze the battlefield, certainly in Europe.
开辟了世界其他地区作为新的战场 And it opened up the entire rest of the world as the new battlefield,
作为两个大国的游乐场 as the playground of the two powers.
在欧洲什么都做不了 所以只能去其他地方挑衅 Can't do anything in Europe, so you have to make mischief everywhere else.
于是你就看到了 全世界秘密行动的爆发 So that's when you see this explosion around the world of covert operations...
以及两个超级大国所拥有的 and these massive intelligence and defense conglomerates
庞大的情报和国防集团 that both the superpowers have.
令人惊讶的是 在第二次世界大战之前 The amazing thing is that prior to World War II,
美国根本没有常设的外国情报机构 the United States never had a permanent foreign intelligence agency at all.
（1945年）
（东德 柏林）
中央情报局的起源 You can trace the roots of the CIA
可以追溯到 1945年夏天柏林的一座大楼 to a mansion in Berlin in the summer of 1945.
欧洲的战争结束了 希特勒已死 The war in Europe is over. Hitler is dead.
柏林已成废墟 Berlin is in ruins.
但在市中心 一处位置很好的大楼里 有两个男人 But in a well-pointed mansion in the center of the city are two men.
一个是艾伦·杜勒斯 One is Allen Dulles,
另一个是他最得意的副手 理查德·赫尔姆斯 and the other is his favorite lieutenant, Richard Helms.
他俩都是OSS 即战略情报局的产物 They were both products of the OSS, the Office of Strategic Services.
（战略情报局）
实际上是英国军情六处 It was really the British, the MI6,
创建了OSS 即战略情报局 who kind of created the OSS, the Office of Strategic Services.
所以其很大程度上是模仿英国的模式 So it was very much modeled on the British model.
（战略情报局）
艾伦·杜勒斯 他从事破坏活动 Allen Dulles, he was into sabotage,
秘密行动 准军事行动 covert operations, paramilitary operations.
我们可以说 他更感兴趣的 He was interested in the more,
是这份工作中更危险的方面 shall we say, dangerous aspects of the job.
赫尔姆斯对间谍活动特别着迷 Helms was uniquely fascinated by espionage.
他认为情报工作 He believed that the business of intelligence
就是通过间谍活动收集情报 was gathering intelligence by spying.
（柏林）
当然 此时的柏林 纳粹德国的前首都 Berlin, at that point, the former capital of Nazi Germany,
正在迅速成为苏联人眼中 is rapidly becoming ground zero of certainly what the Soviets
与西方竞争的中心 are seeing as the contest with the West.
（彼得·西谢尔 战略情报局官员 1942-1947）
我被调到柏林 是因为我们在柏林有两处站点 I was transferred to Berlin because we had in Berlin two stations.
1945年末 苏联在柏林可能有数百名特工 The Soviets probably had hundreds of operatives in Berlin in late 1945.
彼得·西谢尔有几十名下属 Peter Sichel had a few dozen answering to him,
而他才刚满23岁 and he had just turned 23 years old.
苏联在情报部门投入了大量资源 The Soviets had put enormous resources into their intelligence services.
他们可以连续追溯到... And they had continuity
（契卡 苏联秘密警察）
...上世纪二三十年代 going back to the '20s and '30s,
当时他们就把人员 when they were implanting people
安插到大学和社会了 into universities, into society.
苏联的权力体系是三足鼎立 The way the Soviet Union ran, there was three legs to that stool.
政党 军队 还有克格勃 The party, the army, and the KGB.
这跟美国是不一样的 There's nothing like that in America.
捷尔任斯基 是我们所熟知的克格勃的创始人 Dzerzhinsky, founder of what we now know is the KGB.
在俄罗斯 安全部队一直是国家的第二天性 Security forces in Russia have always been the second nature to the state.
捷尔任斯基接管了这一系统 并建立了自己的安全机构 Dzerzhinsky just took over that system and created his own security apparatus,
在斯大林执政初期 这个机构变得越来越专制 which got more and more repressive when Stalin got into power early on.
哈里·杜鲁门认为 Harry Truman thought there was no need
和平时期的美国并不需要情报机构 for a peacetime intelligence service in the United States.
我们的问题都解决了 Our problems were over.
但其中一些官员 比如艾伦·杜勒斯 比如理查德·赫尔姆斯 But a few of its officers, like Allen Dulles, like Richard Helms,
还在与他们在美国陆军中的盟友一起 为保持美国陆军的活力而奋斗 fought with their allies in the Army, the US Army, to keep it alive.
1947年 In 1947,
《国家安全法》 the National Security Act created,
以短短六页的命令 in a very short six-page order,
创建了中央情报局 the Central Intelligence Agency.
在这一法案中 有一些独特和非常重要的东西 In that act, there's something unique, very important,
对中情局产生了令人震惊的影响 that went on to have a shattering impact at the CIA.
在旧体制下 尤其是在英国 In the old system, particularly in Britain,
总有一道绝对的防火墙 there was always an absolute firewall
存在于分析形势 between the people who analyzed situations
决定该做什么或不该做什么的人 and decided what might be done or shouldn't have to be done,
与秘密特工之间 and then on the other side, the covert operatives.
在《国家安全法》中 In the National Security Act,
这两项职能被合并为一个机构 即中央情报局 both of these functions were combined into one agency, the CIA.
因此该机构会向总统提供 So it was gonna be the agency that advised the president
有关世界形势的建议 on what the world looked like,
然后决定是否有必要采取秘密行动 and then decided whether a covert action was necessary,
继而付诸实施 and then carried it out.
这自然促使人们觉得这个世界 That naturally gave the incentive to present the world
好像到处都需要采取秘密行动似的 as if covert action was necessary everywhere.
到1949年 中央情报局在德国境内外 By 1949, the CIA's recruiting foreign agents
招募外国特工 throughout Germany and beyond,
对斯大林扶植傀儡政府的中欧国家 to conduct paramilitary operations against the nations of Central Europe
实施准军事行动 where Stalin has installed his puppet governments,
以空降到铁幕后方 颠覆苏维埃政权 to parachute behind the Iron Curtain and subvert the Soviet state.
其中第一次行动是在1949年秋天 The first of these operations, in the fall of 1949,
斯大林接管乌克兰后 从乌克兰逃出来的乌克兰人 were Ukrainians who had gotten out of Ukraine after Stalin took it over,
他们找到了前往德国的路 found their way to Germany.
中情局在德国 训练这些流亡的乌克兰人一至三个月 The CIA trains these Ukrainian exiles in Germany for a month or two or three.
"你们应该这样 带着降落伞和枪从飞机上跳下来 "Here's how you jump out of an airplane with a parachute and a gun."
如果可以的话 落地后就地打滚 "Hit the ground and roll if you can."
你们应该这样 设置秘密无线电与我们联络 "Here's how you set up a clandestine radio to communicate with us."
这里有价值五万美元的当地货币 "Here's $50,000 worth of local currency
是你们的入场券 to buy yourself access."
你们要在苏联控制的乌克兰境内 建立一个秘密基地 "And you're to establish a clandestine base inside of Soviet-controlled Ukraine,
等你们成功 我们会告诉你们该怎么做" and we'll tell you what to do when you get there."
彼得·西谢尔在整个过程中 扮演着监督者的角色 Peter Sichel's kind of in a supervisory role in all this.
乌克兰从未完全被苏联控制过 Ukraine was never totally controlled by the Soviets.
（乌克兰叛乱分子）
总会遇到一些阻力 There was always pockets of resistance.
他们创建了所谓的 They created so-called
"乌克兰抵抗组织" "Ukrainian resistance cells."
我们会提供武器和钱财等等 We would supply them with arms, money, whatever.
这些行动是中央情报局 在1949年到1953年间 These operations which the CIA conducted with every fiber of its being
全力执行的 from 1949 to 1953,
那是自杀式的任务 were suicide missions.
成千上万被招募的外国特工死亡 Uncounted thousands of recruited foreign agents died.
这是自杀性任务的原因之一 And one reason they were suicide missions
是中情局已经被苏联间谍渗透了 is that the CIA had been penetrated by a Soviet spy.
这个间谍就是英国情报部门 驻华盛顿的负责人 And that spy was the head of British intelligence in Washington,
金·费尔比 Kim Philby.
他是英国情报部门 He is the liaison
与中央情报局 between the British intelligence services
之间的联络人 and the CIA.
费尔比会了解到 中情局在执行准军事任务时 Philby was read into what the CIA was doing
所做的事情 in its paramilitary missions,
于是立即将这些信息传回莫斯科中央 and immediately conveys this information back to Moscow Central,
以确保任务最终能够失败 thus ensuring that the missions would end in disaster.
我被要求辞去外交部的职务 I was asked to resign from the foreign office
因为我有过欠妥的交往 because of an imprudent association.
（1955年）
跟那些所谓共产主义者的交往呢? What about these alleged communist associations?
你对此有何评论? Can you say anything about them?
我上一次跟共产主义者交谈 The last time I spoke to a communist,
在明知道对方是共产主义者的前提下 knowing him to be a communist,
还是在1934年的某个时候 was sometime in 1934.
美国为了支持这些组织 So what happened to all the people,
而运往乌克兰的 the arms, and money
所有人员、武器和资金都怎么样了? that the United States flew into Ukraine in order to support those groups?
基本都落入苏联人手里了 Basically ended up in Soviet hands.
那些人要么被枪决 And the people were shot,
要么被送到西伯利亚或者其他地方 or sent to Siberia, or whatever.
（中央情报局）
每一次进入波兰和罗马尼亚的行动 都变成灾难了 Each succeeding operation into Poland, Romania, they're all disasters.
人们直接消失了 People just disappear.
当我意识到 他们从未从中吸取教训时 When it became so obvious that it was a lesson they never learned,
我决定我不想跟那些对生命 I decided I didn't want to be associated with people
如此漫不经心的人打交道了 who were so cavalier with human lives.
到此为止 End of story.
我觉得一个 如此不尊重人类生命的机构 I felt that an agency that had so little regard for human life,
并不适合我 was not for me.
我赞同他们做的事情 I approved of what they did,
但不赞同他们做事的地点和方式 but not where they did it and how they did it.
中央情报局的行动太过深入 The CIA was operating so far out of its depths
可以放心地说 该机构几乎没有任何工作管用了 that you can safely say almost nothing the agency did worked.
无论是收集情报 执行秘密行动 Not in gathering intelligence, not in running secret operations,
还是执行准军事任务 paramilitary missions.
全都是失败 It was a failure.
但1953年是中央情报局的新时代 But 1953 was a new era for the CIA.
在杜鲁门政府时期 中央情报局确实有开展秘密行动 Under the Truman Administration, the CIA did carry out covert operations,
但没有达到推翻政府的程度 but always stopped short of overthrowing governments.
艾森豪威尔政府上台后 限制都被解除了 When the Eisenhower Administration took office, the gloves came off.
艾伦·杜勒斯成为中央情报局局长 Allen Dulles became director of the CIA,
他的哥哥 约翰·福斯特·杜勒斯成为国务卿 and his older brother John Foster Dulles became Secretary of State.
这是第一次由两兄弟 This was the first time two siblings, two brothers,
控制了美国外交政策的 公开和秘密两方面 controlled the overt and the covert sides of American foreign policy.
杜勒斯兄弟在世界上 The Dulles brothers saw communism
每一场民族主义运动背后 都看到了共产主义 behind every nationalist movement in the world.
美国将成为民主的灯塔 America was going to be this beacon of democracy.
我们要把民主传播到全世界 We were going to spread democracy around the world.
不管这个政权有多腐败 有多邪恶 It didn't matter how corrupt, or how vicious,
有多残暴 or how brutal the regime was.
如果你是反共分子 那我们就对你没意见 If you were anti-communist, you were fine by us.
我经常开玩笑说 如果杜勒斯兄弟 想把他们的祖母扔到公共汽车下面 I often joke that if the Dulleses wanted to throw their grandmother under the bus,
他们会说 他们需要这样做 来把美国从国际共产主义中 they would say they needed to do it to save America
拯救出来 from international communism.
造就杜勒斯兄弟的一个因素 One factor that shaped the Dulles brothers
是他们一生致力于保护 was a lifetime of dedication to protecting the interests
跨国公司的利益 of multinational corporations.
这意味着 他们对维护世界经济体系 What this meant was that they had a deep interest
有着深厚的兴趣 in preserving the world economic system.
这种制度首先是基于一种理解的 This system was based above all on an understanding
即消耗资源的发达国家 that developed countries that consume resources
必须能够控制生产这些资源的国家 need to be able to control the countries where those resources are produced.
（伊朗）
被杜勒斯兄弟视为需要被推翻的 The first two targets for the Dulles brothers
最初的两个领导人目标 as leaders who needed to be overthrown,
是他们积怨已久的两位领导人 were two leaders against whom they already had grudges.
即伊朗的摩萨台 和危地马拉的阿本斯 It was Mosaddegh in Iran and Árbenz in Guatemala.
因此就有了 中情局在20世纪50年代早期 And this led to two of the CIA's most famous and infamous operations
最著名和最臭名昭著的两次行动 of the early 1950s,
那就是推翻危地马拉和伊朗的 which was to overthrow the duly elected governments
民选政府 of Guatemala and Iran.
位于伊朗阿巴丹的世界最大炼油厂 The world's largest oil refinery at Abadan, Iran,
成为了一场重大国际危机的中心 becomes the center of a major international crisis,
因为伊朗议会 一致投票决定将其广阔的油田国有化 as Iran's parliament votes unanimously to nationalize her vast oil fields.
伊朗政府将其石油资源收归国有 The Iranian government had nationalized its oil resources.
英国对伊朗石油的控制 可以追溯到1914年 The British had a stranglehold over Iranian oil going back to 1914.
英国人当时已经破产了 The British are pretty broke at this point.
他们跟约翰·福斯特·杜勒斯 坐下来说 They go and sit with John Foster Dulles and go,
"是的 我们认为摩萨台是共产主义者 你愿意帮助我们推翻他吗? " "Yeah, we think Mosaddegh's a communist." "And will you help us overthrow him?"
英国人和美国人策划了 And the British and the Americans
一项除掉摩萨台的行动 conceived an operation to get rid of Mosaddegh.
中央情报局的计划有两个要素 So there were two elements to the CIA's plan,
想要让扰乱计划奏效 一是要有用来贿赂别人的钱 a chaotic plan that worked. And one was money for bribing people,
另外是要有宣传攻势 and the other was propaganda.
他们让德黑兰的大部分报纸 刊登谴责摩萨台的文章 They had most of the newspapers in Tehran printing articles denouncing Mosaddegh.
这种现在被称为假新闻的东西 This type of what is now called fake news
被中央情报局用来淹没了伊朗媒体 was very much used by the CIA to basically flood the Iranian media.
然后 中央情报局雇佣了一些暴徒 Then the CIA hired thugs who posed as members
伪装成规模很小的伊朗共产党成员 of the very small Communist Party of Iran,
袭击毛拉 玷污清真寺 who attacked mullahs, defiled a mosque.
（人民党示威）
行动其实是失败了 The operation basically failed.
然后在最后一刻 And then at the last minute,
通过一系列滑稽而错综复杂的事件 through a comical and Byzantine series of events,
德黑兰的街道上 there was just enough money, propaganda, and treachery
充斥着足够的金钱、宣传和背叛 flowing through the streets of Tehran
让一小群受中情局收买的 to allow a small corps of rebellious officers
叛变军官 who had been paid by the CIA
开着一辆坦克 来到摩萨台总理的房子前 to roll a tank up to Prime Minister Mosaddegh's house,
炸开一个洞 blow a hole in it,
并说服他最好还是辞去总理的职位 and convince him it would probably be best if he left office.
这为伊朗国王的重新登基开辟了道路 This opened the way for the reinstallation of a Shah of Iran.
军官透露摩萨台已经投降 Army officers reveal Mosaddegh has surrendered.
他作为伊朗独裁者的统治结束了 His reign as virtual dictator of Iran is ended.
现在人群高呼支持沙阿的口号 举着一个动荡国家的 Now crowds shout pro-shah slogans and carry pictures of a troubled ruler
动荡统治者的照片 of a troubled nation.
伊朗国王统治着 一个残暴镇压但亲美的政府 The shah ran a viciously repressive, but pro-American government.
伊朗政变后 After the coup in Iran,
结果是一个财团 what you had was a consortium
由伊朗和西方石油公司组成 between Iran and Western oil companies
服从美国公司 英国公司和法国公司的命令 obeying American companies, a British company, and a French company.
他们经营石油业 They ran the oil industry.
如果你读过文件 If you read the documents,
就会发现没有人 真正担心共产党会接管政权 there is really no real concern about a serious communist takeover.
但这是一个很方便的理由 But it was a convenient argument to use
在美国公众看来 in the American public
他们是在把国家 从共产主义中拯救出来 that they were saving the country from communism.
（危地马拉）
第二年 同样的事情发生在危地马拉 The following year, almost the same thing happens in Guatemala
发生在雅各布·阿本斯身上 with Jacobo Árbenz.
我是奇基塔香蕉 我想要说 ♪ I'm Chiquita Banana And I've come to say ♪
（奇基塔香蕉 联合水果公司品牌）
香蕉必须以某种方式成熟 ♪ Bananas have to ripen In a certain way... ♪
（联合水果香蕉种植园）
几十年来 联合水果公司 几乎一直把危地马拉当做奴隶种植园 United Fruit has been running Guatemala as a virtual slave plantation for decades.
人们几乎拿不到任何报酬 阿本斯说要国有化 People are paid virtually nothing, and Árbenz is talking about nationalizing.
雅各布·阿本斯的政府获得了 The government of Jacobo Árbenz had won congressional approval
国会对一项大规模土地改革的批准 要求联合水果公司 for a large land reform that required the United Fruit Company
将其未使用的土地 出售给危地马拉政府 to sell its unused land to the Guatemalan government,
然后政府将土地分割 which would then cut up that land
并将其分给饥饿的农民家庭 and give it away to starving peasant families.
公司说服约翰·福斯特·杜勒斯 阿本斯是共产主义者 United Fruit convinces John Foster Dulles that Árbenz is communist.
所以美国人又一次 支持了反对阿本斯的政变 So again, the Americans back this coup against Árbenz.
这个人不是共产主义者 This man wasn't a communist.
他提议征用联合水果公司 He proposed to expropriate some fallow land
拥有的一些休耕地 that United Fruit Company owned,
分给农民 and to distribute it to peasants.
中央情报局招募了 一位被革职的中校卡斯蒂略·阿马斯 The CIA recruited a cashiered colonel named Castillo Armas,
并任命他为"解放者" and anointed him as "the liberator."
然后中央情报局迅速采取行动 Then the CIA swept into action.
他们用预先录制的虚假广播 淹没了危地马拉的电波 They saturated Guatemalan airwaves with pre-recorded phony broadcasts.
（"解放电台" 中央情报局秘密广播）
聆听我们的广播 您就会了解危地马拉政治时刻的现实 Listen to us and you will know the reality of Guatemala's political moment
以及伟大的解放运动无可辩驳的进展 and the irrefutable progress of the great liberation movement.
那些广播使人认为 In which, it seemed like
危地马拉在上演一场内战 a big civil war was unfolding in Guatemala.
与此同时 中央情报局的飞机投掷炸弹 Meanwhile, CIA planes were dropping bombs
与这些无线电广播相互呼应 that were then coordinated with these radio broadcasts.
其实并没有真正的战斗 There wasn't any real fighting,
但将军们终于明白 but finally it became clear to the generals
他们必须推翻阿本斯 that they had to overthrow Árbenz.
这让卡斯蒂略·阿马斯掌权了 That brought Castillo Armas into power,
他是美国人推崇的解放者 the liberator that the Americans had anointed.
他立即禁止工会 He went on immediately to ban labor unions,
关闭国会... close Congress...
建立了一个压迫性的政权 ...impose an oppressive regime,
处决了数百人 execute hundreds of people,
导致了危地马拉持续多年的大屠杀 and then that led to a holocaust in Guatemala for many years.
在华盛顿 白宫和中情局 Back in Washington, in the White House and the CIA,
认为这次行动取得了圆满成功 this operation was considered a complete success.
非常完美 Spectacular.
都没花多少钱 It didn't cost much money.
只有几百人被杀 没有一个是美国人 Only a few hundred people were killed, none of them were Americans.
在我看来 从美国在世界的立场来看 To my mind, John Foster Dulles is really one of the great villains
约翰·福斯特·杜勒斯 of the second half of the 20th century,
绝对是20世纪下半叶最大的恶棍之一 from the standpoint of the American standing in the world.
他认为世界非黑即白 He saw the world as black and white.
要么是支持美国 要么就是反对我们 You either stood with America, or were against us.
没有中间立场 There was no neutrality.
情报其实就是信息和知识 Intelligence is nothing really other than information and knowledge.
从苏格拉底时代开始 甚至更早的时候 From the days of Socrates by various methods, and even before that,
（艾伦·杜勒斯 1965年）
人类就一直在通过各种方法 uh, mankind has been seeking knowledge
寻求影响自身生活 of everything that influences his own life
或所属国家生活的各种知识 or the life of the nation to which he belongs.
但认为情报工作必然是邪恶的 But the idea that it is necessarily nefarious,
总是参与推翻政府 是错误的想法 it's always engaged in overthrowing governments, that's false.
冷战是一场争夺对手和对手人民 The Cold War was a battle for the mind and hearts of the opponent
思想和内心的战争 and the opponent's people.
所以冷战是围绕思想展开的 So the Cold War was being fought over thought.
从1940年代末到1960年代 早期的中央情报局 The early CIA from the late '40s into the '60s
进行过数百次施加影响的行动 had hundreds of influence operations,
他们收买了 where they purchased the favor
布宜诺斯艾利斯 东京或柏林的报纸编辑 of a newspaper editor in Buenos Aires, or Tokyo, or Berlin.
有一小部分 有人说不止一小部分 There were a handful, some say more than a handful,
美国记者接受了中央情报局的报酬 of American journalists who were paid by the CIA,
或者免费与中央情报局合作 or cooperated with the CIA free of charge.
所以艾伦·杜勒斯 So it was nothing for Allen Dulles
自然打电话给《纽约时报》的出版商 to call up the publisher of the New York Times,
说："你们在危地马拉 有一个很烦人的记者 and say, "You have an annoying journalist in Guatemala
正在报道中央情报局推翻政府的行动 who is reporting on a CIA operation to overthrow the government."
把他开除" "Yank him."
出版商就照做了 The publisher did.
（莫斯科 克格勃总部）
控制人们的思想和行动 Controlling people's thoughts and actions was also integral
也是苏联行动的重要组成部分 to the Soviet Union's effort
以掌控美国的政策能否顺利实施 to make US policy either do or not do what it wished,
并采取所谓的"积极措施" and used what is called "active measures."
苏联专门致力于虚假信息 The formal structure of the bureaucracy of the Soviet Union
以及积极措施的正式官僚机构 dedicated to disinformation and active measures
是在20世纪50年代建立的 was set up in the 1950s.
使用虚假信息 That's using disinformation,
使用施加影响的特工 using agents of influence,
通过伪造和其他工具来操纵人们 forgeries, and other tools to manipulate the way people perceived
感知周围世界的方式 the factual universe around them.
我们了解到的早期例子 主要来自叛逃者 We know about the early examples, principally from defectors.
当苏联采取一些秘密的积极措施时 When Soviets are running some clandestine active measures operation,
比如把一些重要的报道 like, for instance, planting some major story
刊登在法国和西德 in the newspaper in France, West Germany,
以及美国和日本等其他国家的报纸上 United States, elsewhere, Japan,
这类文章通常 是由当地著名的记者写的 that kind of article normally would be written by local prominent journalist,
他们会表达自己的观点 who will express as if his own or her own opinion.
这类事情通常不会追溯到苏联 These kinds of things normally won't be traceable back to the Soviet Union.
他们的目标是制造混乱 The objective was to cause disruption, confusion,
制造彼此对立 and to turn each other against each other.
苏联在早期非常努力地 The Soviet Union tried very hard in its early days
使用伪造的政府文件等材料 编造一个故事 to use forgeries like government documents that they would make up a story,
写在信纸上 put it on letterhead,
然后塞给记者 希望它能像野火一样传播开来 and slip it to a journalist in hope that it would take off like wildfire,
有时确实成功了 and sometimes it did.
（洛克菲勒为美国 超级殖民主义下达指令）
我想说 主要的成功是在发展中国家 I would say that the major successes were in developing countries
那里的政府没有专业知识 where governments didn't have the expertise...
来正确地分析这些行动 ...to analyze properly these operations.
比方说 有时非常拙劣的伪造品 And, for example, sometimes very cheap forgeries are accepted
在发展中国家 被看作是美国阴谋的真实证据 in developing countries as a genuine proof of American conspiracy.
（胜利日阅兵 莫斯科）
在苏联 In the Soviet Union,
斯大林完全控制了媒体 Stalin has complete control over the media.
很容易营造出一种敌军围城的氛围 It was quite easy to create an atmosphere of the besieged fortress,
一种被间谍和敌人包围的氛围 of the spies and enemies around us.
在教室里 It was impermissible, certainly in a classroom,
在报纸上 在任何地方 or a newspaper, anything,
对斯大林提出任何质疑都是不允许的 to cast any doubt whatsoever on Stalin.
斯大林一直是 苏联无可争议的统治者 直到1953年 Stalin was the uncontested ruler of the Soviet Union until 1953,
他死于中风 when he died of a stroke.
（斯大林死了）
这是冷战的重大转折点 This is a major turning point of the Cold War.
克里姆林宫冰冷的石墙 The Kremlin's cold stone walls,
莫斯科诡异的面貌 the eerie face of Moscow,
为这幅阴郁画面增添色彩的呼啸风雪 a howling wind and snow adding to the somber picture,
这些都是对历史上最强大的独裁者 is the description accompanying the announcement
走向不可避免的终结的描述和宣告 that the most powerful dictator in history has come to the inevitable end.
1953年3月 斯大林去世时 大家悲痛哀悼 In March of 1953 when Stalin died, everybody cried.
如果你深处那种环境 If you're surrounded by,
你在学校长大 崇拜斯大林 and you're growing up in a school and you're worshiping Stalin,
不像是崇拜乔治·华盛顿 或"宣誓效忠国旗" not like George Washington or saying pledge allegiance to the flag,
但以一种半神秘的方式 but in a, in a semi-mystical way,
认为他就像神一样 但突然神就死了 that he's like the godhead, and that suddenly the godhead is dead,
也就难怪你会哭了 well, it's of no surprise that you'd cry.
斯大林死后 After Stalin dies,
关于谁将接替他的问题 曾有过一场权力斗争 there is a power struggle as to who will succeed him
该问题最终得到解决 that is finally resolved
因为新领导人 尼基塔·赫鲁晓夫逐步崛起 with the rise of a new leader named Nikita Khrushchev.
在赫鲁晓夫时代 有一种思想叫做"解冻" In the Khrushchev era, there was something called the Thaw.
我出生在莫斯科 I was born in Moscow.
我在莫斯科长大 I was raised in Moscow.
我的童年十分优渥 I had a privileged childhood
因为我是尼基塔·赫鲁晓夫的曾孙女 being the great-granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev.
他在东乌克兰当过煤矿工人 He worked as a coal miner in East Ukraine.
在1917年的布尔什维克革命中 In the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917,
他是一位级别非常低的政治委员 he was a very low-level political commissar,
他在党内的地位 是在那时候开始逐步提升的 and began kind of rising up in the Communist ranks.
斯大林死后 赫鲁晓夫上台 When Stalin dies, Khrushchev came into power.
库尔斯克的农民 终于成为了苏联的独裁者 The peasant from Kursk finally emerges as dictator of the Soviet Union.
新领导层所做的一件事 One of the things that the new leadership does
是对许多被监禁的人实行大赦 is introduce amnesty for many people who have been imprisoned.
赫鲁晓夫无法让那些被处决的人复活 Khrushchev could not bring back those who had been executed,
但他从监狱和劳改营释放了 but he released from jail, from labor camps,
那些无辜的斯大林恐怖主义受害者 those people who had been innocent victims of Stalin's terror.
赫鲁晓夫一直对其他斯大林的走狗说 And Khrushchev kept saying to all those other Stalin flunkies,
"我们需要谈谈 我们参与的斯大林的罪行" "We need to talk about the crimes of Stalin's that we were part of."
在代表大会的最后一次会议上 In the last session of the Congress...
赫鲁晓夫发表了所谓的秘密讲话 ...Khrushchev delivered what is called the Secret Speech.
讲述了斯大林执政期间 It spoke about numbers of people
被起诉的人数 that got prosecuted during Stalin's years in office,
被监禁的人数 未经审判便被行刑的人数 and how many were imprisoned, and how many went without trial.
讲述了秘密警察 It spoke about the secret police.
所有这些事情 人们都知道一些 但不知道具体数字 All the things that people knew some, but they didn't have it in numbers
从来没有 and never had it in a speech
在苏联共产党 第一书记的讲话中提到过 by the first Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.
所以那是一个了不起的时刻 So it was an amazing moment.
演讲结束后 房间里一片寂静 After the speech was delivered, there was an absolute silence in the room.
那些认为斯大林的暴行被夸大了的人 People who had believed that the stories of Stalin's excesses were exaggerated,
那些仍然相信苏联理想 people who still believed in the ideals of the Soviet Union
或共产主义理想的人 or the ideals of communism,
这些揭秘让他们中的许多人 都看清事实了 many of them had their eyes opened by these revelations.
在那次演讲中 他说斯大林是一名彻底的罪犯 In that speech, he said Stalin was really a criminal.
对我来说 斯大林曾是神一般的存在 Stalin was God for me.
我从那时开始 对神、斯大林和共产主义失去信心了 I started to lose faith in God, in Stalin, and in communism.
（帕维尔·李维诺夫 苏联异见人士）
那次演讲 并不是承认体制从根本上是错的 It wasn't an admission that the system was fundamentally wrong.
他没有为所做的一切道歉 He didn't apologize for everything that was done,
但那次演讲 确实让苏联走上了不同的道路 but it did set the Soviet Union on a different course.
赫鲁晓夫很有人情味 Khrushchev was very human.
赫鲁晓夫很有感染力 Khrushchev was emotional.
他喜欢在句子中加入粗口 He loved to punctuate sentences with swear words.
无论他是在跟谁说话 Didn't matter who he was talking to.
有一段时期 There's a period in which a generation,
年轻的一代人 then quite young,
看到了后斯大林时代 sees the possibility of what would be called liberal reform
进行所谓的自由改革的可能性 in the post-Stalinist era.
他们不是持不同政见者 他们不愿意坐牢 They're not dissidents. They're not willing to go to jail.
但他们成了记者 成了政党官员 But they become journalists. They become party officials.
赫鲁晓夫决定尝试引入一些批评人士 允许在报纸发表文章 Khrushchev decided to try to introduce some critics permitted in newspapers
在《新世界》杂志发表文章 in the magazine Novy Mir...
（《新世界》杂志）
那是非常受欢迎的评论杂志 ...which was very popular political magazine.
这在某种程度上支持了去斯大林化 And kind of supported certain de-Stalinization
以及俄国生活的自由化 and liberalization of Russian life.
在赫鲁晓夫统治下 人们开始表演 People under Khrushchev, they started to perform.
会有一些古典音乐会 There were some concerts of classical music,
这在以前几乎是被禁止的 which was almost forbidden.
还有书籍出版 Books were published.
他允许一位名叫 亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴的年轻作家 He allows the publication of a young writer named Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn,
出版《伊凡·杰尼索维奇的一天》 One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich.
但赫鲁晓夫坚定相信 But Khrushchev was absolutely a believer
马克思列宁主义的可能性 in the possibilities of Marxist-Leninism.
（与尼克松的"厨房辩论" 1959年7月）
你是资本主义的拥护者 我是共产主义的拥护者 You are an advocate of capitalism, and I am an advocate of communism.
我们来比一比吧 So let's compete.
赫鲁晓夫世界观的核心 Central to Khrushchev's worldview,
是苏联在意识形态上占优势 the Soviet Union was superior ideologically
在军事上占劣势 and inferior militarily.
他认为只有一种方法 He believed the only way to make up
能够弥补美苏之间差距 for the gap between American power and Soviet power
那就是让美国人对苏联产生恐惧 was to scare Americans about the Soviet Union
让他们认为苏联比实际更强大 and to make them think the Soviet Union was more powerful than it actually was.
我们自称 有5000万吨当量的炸弹 没错 We said we had a 50-megaton bomb, that's correct.
所以赫鲁晓夫 搞了一场虚假的宣传活动 It's why Khrushchev engages in a disinformation campaign
夸大了苏联能打到美国的导弹数量 to exaggerate the number of Soviet missiles that can reach the United States.
赫鲁晓夫有句名言："我们可以像生产香肠一样生产导弹" Khrushchev famously said, "We can produce missiles like sausages."
而美国的精英们相信了俄国人 And the American elite believed the Russians.
但我们不会引爆一亿吨当量的炸弹 But we're not going to detonate a 100-megaton bomb
因为如果我们在预定地点引爆炸弹 because if we detonated that bomb where it's supposed to go,
我们也可能会震碎自己的窗户 we might as well break our own windows.
所以这是不值得的 So, therefore, it's not worth it.
（内华达试验场 内华达州 奈县）
美国政府开始将关注点 The US government begins to move away
从城市疏散和辐射避难所的构思转移 from this idea of urban evacuations and fallout shelters,
转到将少数高级政府官员 and into this idea of evacuating a small number of
疏散到山上的掩体 high-ranking government officials out into mountain bunkers
以及空中指挥所的想法 and airborne command posts,
因为认为大多数美国人会死 但美国政府会存留下来 figuring that most of America will die, but the American government will live.
自1950年代初 Since the early '50s,
尤其是1960年代中期以来 but especially since the mid-'60s,
世界上有两个世界末日机器 there have been two doomsday machines in the world,
美国以及苏联或俄罗斯 the US and Soviet, or Russian,
它们都有能力 which are each capable of
结束地球上大多数人的生命 ending most human life on Earth.
今天 一名联邦法官 命令《纽约时报》 A federal judge today ordered the New York Times
暂时停止发表一系列报道 to suspend temporarily publication of a series of reports
这些报道源于五角大楼 对美国如何卷入越南战争的 based on a secret Pentagon study of how the United States became involved
一项秘密研究 in the Vietnamese War.
丹尼尔·艾尔斯伯格 是《纽约时报》报道的 Daniel Ellsberg, the man named as the source
五角大楼文件副本的提供者 of the Pentagon copy that appeared in the New York Times,
他今天向联邦当局自首 turned himself in today to federal authorities.
我不后悔做了我当时知道应该做的事 I can't regret having done what I knew at the time to be what I ought to do,
那是我身为公民的责任 my duty as a citizen.
当我公布五角大楼的文件时 When I released the Pentagon Papers,
我想："好吧 我要为此在监狱里度过余生了 I figured, "Well, I'm gonna go to prison for the rest of my life for this."
为什么就此打住呢? 让我... "So, why stop at this? Let me..."
我会想办法 把我认为更重要的东西发表出来" "I'll figure on putting out what I think is much more important."
我掌握的所有核文件 All my nuclear files.
我希望它们能降低核战争的可能性 They would, I hoped, lessen the likelihood of nuclear war.
所以除了五角大楼的文件 我还复印了 So I copied also, in addition to the Pentagon Papers,
我的绝密保险箱里的所有文件 everything in my top secret safe.
我对核战争计划的记录 My notes on nuclear war plans,
希望能提高人们 对我们所面临的危险的意识 in hopes of raising people's consciousness as to the dangers we are living with.
国防预算应该削减一半以上 The defense budget should be cut more than in half,
而不是像现在这样增加 rather than being increased right now,
应该从最危险的武器 洲际弹道导弹开始削减 but starting with the most dangerous weapons, the ICBMs.
我看到一场核危机向我们袭来 I saw a nuclear crisis coming at us.
我看到现在削减的可能性很小 I see very little chance now of reducing that.
在过去几年里 For the last several years,
我一直致力于废除美国的 I've been focusing on trying to eliminate US land-based ICBMs,
陆基洲际弹道导弹 intercontinental ballistic missiles.
那是末日机器的扳机 These are the hair trigger on a doomsday machine.
现在我不得不说 我年事已高 I do have to say now, in this point in my life,
真正产生影响的可能性 the chance of actually affecting things
比我想象的要低 is lower even than I thought it was.
不过还能差过冒着生命和自由的危险 And yet, can it be worse than risking your life, your freedom,
换取拯救生命的一线希望吗? for a very low chance of saving lives?
答案是肯定的 And the answer is yes.
当然是值得的 Of course it can be worth it.
我们在冷战期间学到的一些教训 There are lessons we learned during the Cold War
已经被我们遗忘了 we have conveniently forgotten,
包括一场危机会变得多么不稳定 including how unstable a crisis can become,
以及变化会多么迅速 and how fast.
这就是1962年发生的事情 And this is what happened in 1962.
10月14日 On October 14th,
U2飞机拍下了这些照片 the U2 plane took these pictures.
现在有明确的证据表明 俄国人曾在古巴岛上 There was now clear proof that the Russians had secretly placed
秘密部署了中程核导弹 intermediate-range nuclear missiles on the island of Cuba.
接下来的日子是当时和现在 The days that followed were the most dangerous days
世界面临的最危险的日子 the world has ever faced then and now.
（丹尼尔·艾尔斯伯格 1931年4月7日至2023年6月16日）
字幕翻译：Zeo Niu