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诺贝尔经济学奖[得主]， 保罗克·鲁格曼，曾经说过： Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize [winner] in economics, once wrote:
”生产力不能代表一切， 但长期来看， "Productivity is not everything, but in the long run,
它差不多就是一切。“ it is almost everything."
这是个严肃的问题。 So this is serious.
世界上没有什么东西能 “几乎代表一切。” There are not that many things on earth that are "almost everything."
生产力是社会繁荣的主要推动力。 Productivity is the principal driver of the prosperity of a society.
那么我们面临着一个问题。 So we have a problem.
在欧洲最大的经济体当中， In the largest European economies,
50、60年代和70年代初期的生产力 productivity used to grow five percent per annum
曾经保持着每年5%的增长速度。 in the '50s, '60s, early '70s.
在1973-1983年间， 生产力年化增长率为3%。 From '73 to '83: three percent per annum.
在1983-1995年间， 生产力年化增长率保持在2%。 From '83 to '95: two percent per annum.
自1995年以来，生产力年化增长率 每年的增长一直低于1%。 Since 1995: less than one percent per annum.
日本也是如此。 The same profile in Japan.
美国亦是如此， The same profile in the US,
即便15年前出现了一次短暂的经济复苏， despite a momentary rebound 15 years ago,
虽然我们身边的科技日新月异： and despite all the technological innovations
例如互联网，信息技术， around us: the Internet, the information,
新信息技术和通讯技术的发展。 the new information and communication technologies.
生产力年化增长率为3%时， When productivity grows three percent per annum,
生活水平每个年代会翻一番。 you double the standard of living every generation.
每一代人享受到的福利 是其父母那代的两倍。 Every generation is twice as well-off as its parents'.
当增长率仅为1%时， When it grows one percent per annum,
需要3代的时间才能使生活水平翻一番。 it takes three generations to double the standard of living.
在这一进程中，许多人 会过得还不如他们的父母。 And in this process, many people will be less well-off than their parents.
他们的一切都更差些： They will have less of everything:
房子更小了，或者根本没房子， smaller roofs, or perhaps no roof at all,
受教育机会更少，获取维生素、 抗生素、疫苗的机会也更少 -- less access to education, to vitamins, to antibiotics, to vaccination --
一切机会都更少。 to everything.
考虑下我们当前所面临的所有问题。 Think of all the problems that we're facing at the moment.
所有问题。 All.
我们的问题有可能是 扎根于生产力危机之上的。 Chances are that they are rooted in the productivity crisis.
为什么说这个危机是根源呢？ Why this crisis?
因为效率的基本原理 -- Because the basic tenets about efficiency --
组织、管理的效率 -- effectiveness in organizations, in management --
往往会使人们的努力适得其反。 have become counterproductive for human efforts.
在公共事业的任何地方 -- 在公司当中、我们的工作方式里、 Everywhere in public services -- in companies, in the way we work,
我们的创新、投资方式上 -- 都在努力提高效率。 the way we innovate, invest -- try to learn to work better.
效率的三位一体是指： Take the holy trinity of efficiency:
透明度、衡量和问责制。 clarity, measurement, accountability.
它们使人们的努力白费。 They make human efforts derail.
有两个方式来看待、证明这点。 There are two ways to look at it, to prove it.
第一，也是我偏向的一种， One, the one I prefer,
是严谨，典雅，美观大方的数学。 is rigorous, elegant, nice -- math.
但完整的数学评估方案 需要一点时间， But the full math version takes a little while,
因此又有了另一种方式。 so there is another one.
就是通过接力赛跑来看。 It is to look at a relay race.
也是我们今天要用到的。 This is what we will do today.
这样会更生动、更直观 也更快 -- 这是短跑比赛嘛。 It's a bit more animated, more visual and also faster -- it's a race.
当然，我们希望它更便捷。 Hopefully, it's faster.
（笑声） (Laughter)
世界杯决赛 -- 女子项目。 World championship final -- women.
决赛共有八队。 Eight teams in the final.
最快的是美国队。 The fastest team is the US team.
美国有全世界最快的女运动员。 They have the fastest women on earth.
她们是夺冠热门。 They are the favorite team to win.
显然，如果你把她们 和一般的队伍比较， Notably, if you compare them to an average team,
比如说，法国队吧， say, the French team,
（笑声） (Laughter)
按照她们在100米短跑当中的最佳成绩， based on their best performances in the 100-meter race,
把美国选手个人的成绩相加起来， if you add the individual times of the US runners,
最后她们会在达终点线时 比法国队领先3.2米。 they arrive at the finish line 3.2 meters ahead of the French team.
今年，美国队状态很好。 And this year, the US team is in great shape.
根据她们今年的最好成绩， Based on their best performance this year,
她们在到达终点时 应该要领先法国队6.4米， they arrive 6.4 meters ahead of the French team,
这是根据数据推算的。 based on the data.
那我们来看一下比赛。 We are going to look at the race.
从某个角度来看，快到终点时， At some point you will see, towards the end,
Torri Edwards，美国队第四棒，暂时领先。 that Torri Edwards, the fourth US runner, is ahead.
毫不意外地 -- 今年 她在100米赛跑中获得了金牌。 Not surprising -- this year she got the gold medal in the 100-meter race.
顺便说下，Chryste Gaines， 美国队第二棒， And by the way, Chryste Gaines, the second runner in the US team,
是地球上跑得最快的女性。 is the fastest woman on earth.
那么，全世界有35亿女性。 So, there are 3.5 billion women on earth.
最快的两个在哪里？ 答案在美国队。 Where are the two fastest? On the US team.
美国队的另外两名选手也不赖。 And the two other runners on the US team are not bad, either.
（笑声） (Laughter)
显然，美国队赢得了人才争夺战。 So clearly, the US team has won the war for talent.
不过在其背后， 普通的队伍也在奋力追赶。 But behind, the average team is trying to catch up.
我们来看下比赛。 Let's watch the race.
（视频：法国体育节目比赛解说） (Video: French sportscasters narrate race)
（视频：比赛讲解结束） (Video: Race narration ends)
所以视频里发生了什么？ Yves Morieux: So what happened?
最快的队伍没有赢； 慢的那一队反而赢了。 The fastest team did not win; the slower one did.
顺便说下，我希望你们能认可 By the way, I hope you appreciate
我做了非常深入的历史研究 来使法国看起来很好。 the deep historical research I did to make the French look good.
（笑声） (Laughter)
但我们不要这么夸张 -- 这也不是考古学 But let's not exaggerate -- it's not archeology, either.
（笑声） (Laughter)
但是为什么呢？ But why?
因为合作。 Because of cooperation.
当你听到这句话： When you hear this sentence:
“多亏了合作，整体大于部分之和。” "Thanks to cooperation, the whole is worth more than the sum of the parts."
这不是诗歌； 这不是哲学。 This is not poetry; this is not philosophy.
这是数学。 This is math.
握着接力棒的人跑得慢了点， Those who carry the baton are slower,
但她们交接棒更快。 but their baton is faster.
合作的奇迹： Miracle of cooperation:
它能让人们努力的能量和智慧加倍。 it multiplies energy, intelligence in human efforts.
这是人们努力的精髓： It is the essence of human efforts:
我们如何合作， 个人的成果如何为团队做贡献。 how we work together, how each effort contributes to the efforts of others.
通过合作， 我们可以事半功倍。 With cooperation, we can do more with less.
那么，当目标 -- 包含了 -- Now, what happens to cooperation when the holy grail --
清晰度、衡量、问责的圣神三位一体 -- the holy trinity, even --
出现时，会对合作产生 of clarity, measurement, accountability --
什么影响？ appears?
清晰度。 Clarity.
管理报告充满了对缺乏清晰度的抱怨。 Management reports are full of complaints about the lack of clarity.
合规性审核、咨询诊断。 Compliance audits, consultants' diagnostics.
我们需要更高的清晰度， 我们要明确角色分担和过程。 We need more clarity, we need to clarify the roles, the processes.
就好比说队伍里的选手说， It is as though the runners on the team were saying,
“我们明确下吧 -- 我从哪里跑到哪里？ "Let's be clear -- where does my role really start and end?
我要跑95米， 还是96、97米...？” Am I supposed to run for 95 meters, 96, 97...?"
这很重要，我们要分清楚。 It's important, let's be clear.
如果你说97米的话， 那么跑完97米， If you say 97, after 97 meters,
人们就会把交接棒丢掉， 可不管到时候有没有人接。 people will drop the baton, whether there is someone to take it or not.
问责制。 Accountability.
我们总是试图把责任 We are constantly trying to put accountability
规定给某个人。 in someone's hands.
谁对这个过程负责？ Who is accountable for this process?
我们需要一个人对这个过程负责。 We need somebody accountable for this process.
所以在接力赛中， 既然交接棒如此之重要， So in the relay race, since passing the baton is so important,
那么我们需要非常明确 负责交接棒的人是谁。 then we need somebody clearly accountable for passing the baton.
在两个选手中间， So between each runner,
我们现在要规定一个新的专门的运动员， now we will have a new dedicated athlete,
这个运动员要非常明确地专注于 接过上一个选手的交接棒， clearly dedicated to taking the baton from one runner,
然后再交接给下一个选手。 and passing it to the next runner.
而且我们至少需要两个这样的选手。 And we will have at least two like that.
那么，我们，这样以来，会赢得比赛吗？ Well, will we, in that case, win the race?
这个我就不知道了， 但是可以肯定的是， That I don't know, but for sure,
我们有一个明确的分工， we would have a clear interface,
对责任有了非常明确的划分界线。 a clear line of accountability.
我们会知道由谁来承担过错。 We will know who to blame.
但我们不会赢得比赛。 But we'll never win the race.
如果你仔细想想， 会发现我们在失败时把更多精力 If you think about it, we pay more attention
集中在确定谁来负责的问题上， to knowing who to blame in case we fail,
而不是去创造有利于成功的条件。 than to creating the conditions to succeed.
把所有的人类智慧 都投入到组织设计当中 -- All the human intelligence put in organization design --
城市结构、处理系统 -- urban structures, processing systems --
真正的目的是什么？ what is the real goal?
目的是在失败的时候 把责任归咎于某人。 To have somebody guilty in case they fail.
我们创造了会失败的组织， We are creating organizations able to fail,
但是以一种合规的方式来创造的， but in a compliant way,
在这种组织中， 有明确的人来为失败负责。 with somebody clearly accountable when we fail.
在失败这点上， 人们做的相当有效率。 And we are quite effective at that -- failing.
衡量。 Measurement.
东西衡量好了， 事情也就完成了。 What gets measured gets done.
你看，要传递交接棒， 你要在对的时间、 Look, to pass the baton, you have to do it at the right time,
用对的手、以正确的速度来传递。 in the right hand, at the right speed.
但要这么做的话， 你要把能量分配到你的手臂里。 But to do that, you have to put energy in your arm.
你手臂中的能量不在你的腿里。 This energy that is in your arm will not be in your legs.
你必须牺牲掉可被衡量的速度。 It will come at the expense of your measurable speed.
你将要交接的时候要及早喊出声， You have to shout early enough to the next runner
发出信号说明你快到了， when you will pass the baton, to signal that you are arriving,
以便让下一位选手最好准备、有所预备。 so that the next runner can prepare, can anticipate.
而且你要喊得够大声。 And you have to shout loud.
但是这时血液、能量会集中在你的喉咙里， But the blood, the energy that will be in your throat
而不是你的腿里。 will not be in your legs.
因为你知道，这时候有8个人同时在喊。 Because you know, there are eight people shouting at the same time.
所以你要辨别得出你队友的声音。 So you have to recognize the voice of your colleague.
你可不能说，“是你吗？” You cannot say, "Is it you?"
这就晚了！ Too late!
（笑声） (Laughter)
那么，我们现在看下比赛的慢动作， Now, let's look at the race in slow motion,
大家注意第三棒选手。 and concentrate on the third runner.
你看她把力量、能量和注意力 Look at where she allocates her efforts,
都分配在哪里。 her energy, her attention.
并没有都在腿部 -- 虽然这样对她的速度很有利 -- Not all in her legs -- that would be great for her own speed --
可也分配在了喉咙、 手臂、眼睛、大脑里。 but in also in her throat, arm, eye, brain.
那么这对哪个选手的腿产生了影响呢？ That makes a difference in whose legs?
答案是下一个选手的腿。 In the legs of the next runner.
但当下一名选手跑得特别快的时候， But when the next runner runs super-fast,
这是因为她自己特别使劲跑了呢， is it because she made a super effort,
还是因为前面一名选手的交接棒传得好呢？ or because of the way the third runner passed the baton?
这个地球上没有标准来给我们一个答案。 There is no metric on earth that will give us the answer.
如果我们根据可以测量的表现 来对人们进行奖励的话， And if we reward people on the basis of their measurable performance,
人们就会把自己的能量、注意力和血液 they will put their energy, their attention, their blood
集中在能够被测量的部位 -- 就是腿部。 in what can get measured -- in their legs.
而这样一来交接棒会滑落然后传递速度会减慢。 And the baton will fall and slow down.
合作不是一股超级力量， To cooperate is not a super effort,
而是对力量的分配。 it is how you allocate your effort.
这意味着冒险， It is to take a risk,
因为你要牺牲可被客观测量的 because you sacrifice the ultimate protection
个人表现所能给予你的终极保障。 granted by objectively measurable individual performance.
这对别人的表现有着重要影响， It is to make a super difference in the performance of others,
而这些人正是和我们相比较的人。 with whom we are compared.
所以要合作就要当傻子。 It takes being stupid to cooperate, then.
但是人们可不是傻子； 所以他们不合作。 And people are not stupid; they don't cooperate.
你知道吗，在比较简单的世界里， You know, clarity, accountability, measurement were OK
清晰度、问责制、衡量都是可行的。 when the world was simpler.
但商业已经变得更加复杂了。 But business has become much more complex.
我的团队，我们评估了 With my teams, we have measured
商业复杂度的演变。 the evolution of complexity in business.
如今要吸引并留住客户， It is much more demanding today to attract and retain customers,
打造世界级的优势并创造价值， to build advantage on a global scale,
是一件要求严苛的事。 to create value.
而商业越是复杂， And the more business gets complex,
我们就越是会以清晰度、 问责和衡量的名义 the more, in the name of clarity, accountability, measurement
来让结构、过程 和体制更加复杂繁多。 we multiply structures, processes, systems.
要知道，这种对清晰度 和问责的推崇会引发 You know, this drive for clarity and accountability triggers
一种反生产力的复杂化， 导致出现更多的分界线、中间部门、 a counterproductive multiplication of interfaces, middle offices,
协调者，他们不仅能动员人力和物资， coordinators that do not only mobilize people and resources,
但也会增添障碍。 but that also add obstacles.
组织越是复杂， And the more complicated the organization,
就越难理解究竟发生了什么。 the more difficult it is to understand what is really happening.
所以我们需要做总结、代理、报告、 So we need summaries, proxies, reports,
关键绩效指标、衡量标准。 key performance indicators, metrics.
所以人们都把精力 放在了可以被测量的东西上， So people put their energy in what can get measured,
然后牺牲合作。 at the expense of cooperation.
当表现退步了， And as performance deteriorates,
我们会增加更多的 结构、过程、体系。 we add even more structure, process, systems.
人们会把时间都用来开会、 People spend their time in meetings,
写报告，写了又改、改了又写。 writing reports they have to do, undo and redo.
根据我们的分析数据显示， Based on our analysis, teams in these organizations
这些机构的团队会把40% 到80%的时间用来浪费时间， spend between 40 and 80 percent of their time wasting their time,
他们越做越辛苦，越做越耗时， but working harder and harder, longer and longer,
而增值活动却越来越少。 on less and less value-adding activities.
这才是泯灭生产力的罪魁祸首， This is what is killing productivity,
这才是让人们工作痛苦的原因。 what makes people suffer at work.
我们的组织在浪费人类智慧。 Our organizations are wasting human intelligence.
它们和人类的努力背道而驰。 They have turned against human efforts.
当人们不合作的时候， When people don't cooperate,
不要怪他们的思想、 他们的心理、他们的性格 -- don't blame their mindsets, their mentalities, their personality --
请看一下他们的工作环境吧。 look at the work situations.
合作与否真的事关他们的个人利益吗， Is it really in their personal interest to cooperate or not,
如果，他们合作了， 他们的个人表现会不会被削弱？ if, when they cooperate, they are individually worse off?
既然如此他们为什么还会合作呢？ Why would they cooperate?
当我们责怪的是一个人的性格， When we blame personalities
而不是责怪清晰度、问责制和衡量方法时， instead of the clarity, the accountability, the measurement,
我们在无效之上又加上了不公正。 we add injustice to ineffectiveness.
我们要创造的组织， We need to create organizations
应该让人们觉得合作有益于个人。 in which it becomes individually useful for people to cooperate.
把界线划分、中间部门取消掉 -- Remove the interfaces, the middle offices --
所有这些复杂的协调结构。 all these complicated coordination structures.
不要强求清晰度；选择模糊。 Don't look for clarity; go for fuzziness.
模糊没有明确分界线。 Fuzziness overlaps.
取消大部分的评估表现的量化指标。 Remove most of the quantitative metrics to assess performance.
速度指的是“什么”。 Speed the "what."
可我们要看的是合作，即“如何。” Look at cooperation, the "how."
你如何传递交接棒？ How did you pass the baton?
你直接抛弃它吗， 还是有效地传递过去？ Did you throw it, or did you pass it effectively?
我是不是把我的能量 都集中在了可量化的方面 -- Am I putting my energy in what can get measured --
我的腿，我的速度 -- 还是放在了如何传递交接棒上？ my legs, my speed -- or in passing the baton?
你们，作为领导和管理者， You, as leaders, as managers,
是否让人们觉得合作有益于个人了？ are you making it individually useful for people to cooperate?
我们组织、公司、社团的 The future of our organizations,
未来取决于 our companies, our societies
你们对这些问题的答案。 hinges on your answer to these questions.
谢谢。 Thank you.
（掌声） (Applause)