欢迎来到今天的教程 okay welcome today to today's tutorial
我知道我承诺这个教程已经有一段时间了 I know I've been promising this tutorial for a while
但我们终于来了，可以这么做了 but we're finally here and able to do this
今天和马克·里奇一起 with mark richie today
嗨，马克，你好吗 hi mark how are you
马克好自己 good mark yourself
马克离开好几天了 mark was away for a couple days
很高兴你回来了 glad to have you back
我很好，我很好 I'm doing I'm doing great
这是一个非常有趣的话题 this is a topic that is very much interested
从我们的 from our
成员 members
你总是收到关于仓位大小的问题吗 were always getting questions about position sizing
今天我要讲的是仓位大小 today I'm going to talk about position sizing
和进步的曝光 and progressive exposure
因为它们是携手并进的 because they go hand and hand
特别是风险管理方面 particularly with managing risk
我们来谈谈我自己 we'll talk about myself how I
位置方面 position sides
我们会讲到它背后的数学 we're going to talk about the math behind it and also
了解马克对什么的看法 get mark's views on what
他是如何使用这些的 how he uses these
各种各样的技术和背后的数学 various techniques and the mathematics behind it
让我们从这里开始 so let's get started here
首先我想说的是 so first thing I want to talk about is just
一些考虑因素 some of the considerations
需要考虑的风险因素 the risk factors to consider
当你调整仓位尺寸时 when you're position sizing and
管理你的手腕 managing your wrist
有一些因素是可以的 there are certain factors that you can
这是你需要考虑的 that you want to take into consideration
如果遗漏了什么，当然要标记出来 of course mark if there's anything that left out
当然插话 certainly chime in
首先是流动性 the first would be liquidity
我的位置大小 I position size
同样，这是依赖于 and again this is going to be dependent on
你交易的规模 the size that you're trading
如果你管理的是对冲基金，你有很多 if you were managing a hedge fund you have a much
比管理一家小银行的流动性问题更大 bigger liquidity issue than if you're managing a small
个人投资组合 individual portfolio
我想你们大多数人 I think most of you
大多数情况下都没有流动性问题 don't have a liquidity problem for the most part
大多数股票 with most stocks but
如果股票在交易 again if a stock's trading
每天20万股 200,000 shares a day
我不会买5万股的 I'm not gonna buy 50,000 shares of that
我的经验法则是10% my general rule of thumb is 10%
日平均交易量的 of the average daily volume
但是再一次 but again
这绝对是考虑到流动性 this is definitely consideration the liquidity
还有利差风险 also the spread risk
这是一种流动性 and that's sort of in the liquidity of
如果你愿意的话 camp if you will
如果有一个广泛的 if there's a widespread on it
如果你是短期培训 if you were a short term training
你得到了广泛的 and you got a widespread
你现在的仓位很大 you're taking a big position right away
你不知所措 you're at a loss
这些都是对波动性的考虑 so again these are considerations the volatility
股票也是如此 of the stock too
如果你有一只非常不稳定的股票 if you have a very stock that's very volatile
会有的 there's going to be
更有可能被炒鱿鱼 a higher chance of being whipped out of the stock
你就不会再被打了 and you're stop getting hit
因此，波动性是一个考虑因素 so the volatility is a consideration
你的止损 your stop loss
它与你的价格差的百分比 the percentage that it's away from your by price
当然，你越接近你的价格 of course the closer you are to your by price the
的 the
更有可能的是你会被拦下 more likely it is that you're going to get stopped out
一般的市场环境 general market environment
就像我们现在所处的环境 like the environment we're in right now
你知道这是一个 you know this is an environment where
你一定会有的 you're going to definitely have
有更多的风险 there's more risk
这是消息驱动的 it's news driven
所以风险更大 so you've got some more risk there
收益，如果你要进入收益 earnings if you're going into earnings
你有隔夜缺口的风险 you've got the overnight gap risk
第二天早上你 next morning you
醒来后股价可能会下跌10% wake up in the stock could be down 10%
最后 and then finally
这有点模棱两可的拥挤交易风险 the crowded trade risk which this is somewhat ambiguous
对一些人来说 to some people
这是一个 this is a
有些东西还没有被完全理解 something that's not fully understood
我有时过得很艰难 and I have a hard time sometimes
解释它 explaining it
这不是什么 and it's not something
我们可以把手指放在上面 that we can just put our finger on
你知道并量化它 you know and quantify it
但这是一个拥挤的行业 but a crowded trade is
有很多人关注的一只股票可能一直是这样 a stock that has a lot of eyes on it maybe has been
在公众的视野中已经很久了 know in the public view for a long time
做得很好 is done really well
就像亚马逊上的Facebook和Netflix上的视频 like a Facebook on amazon and Netflix on in video
这些是这些股票 these are these are stocks that have gotten
更有效地定价 much more efficiently priced
它们通常是大盘股 they're usually big cap stocks
这些股票将再次下跌 and these are stocks that are going to again
多摆动身体 wiggle around much more
你的止损风险在哪里 where in a random fashion where your stop risk
当然是升高的 is elevated of course
不管怎样，这些都很简单，我想过一遍 so anyway those are real quick I just wanted to go over
这些因素，这六个因素 those factors those six factors
考虑到你的 to consider when your
头寸规模和管理风险 position sizing and managing risk
现在我想给你一些职位 now I want to give you some position
分级指南 sizing guidelines
给那些来过的人 for those of you who have come
到主交易员程序 to the master trader program
你知道我有一章是关于定位的 you know I have a section on positionizing
其中一些幻灯片来自于高级交易员程序 some of these are slides from the master trader program
也是在我的第二本书里 also in my 2nd book
实际上没有一章是关于头寸大小的 there's not actually a chapter on position sizing
如果你还没读过，你应该读一下 so if you haven't read that you should
这里肯定会有一些重叠 and there'll certainly be some overlap here
希望我今天能进一步阐明这一点 hopefully I can illuminate it even more today
第一，这是我真正的基础我的头寸尺寸 No.1 and this is what I really base my position sizing
当我讲到 when I get to
较大的或最佳的仓位尺寸 the larger or the optimal position sizing
我是基于总权益的风险 I'm basing on a risk of total equity
和肯定 and and certainly
如果你是新手的话 you know if you're new at this
你不应该冒这么大的风险 you shouldn't be taking much more risk than about
可能是1%到1.5% maybe 1% to 1.5%
总股本的 of total equity
所有现在 all right now
如果你干这行有一段时间了 if you've been doing this for a while
而且你很擅长 and you're good at it
或者事情进展顺利 or things are going well
市场工作 the markets work
你知道你的交易在起作用 you know your trades are working
健康的市场环境 markets in a healthy environment
你可以提高到2.5% you can move up to maybe two and a half percent
在这一点上 you know at that point
超过这个数值就会有空间的风险 any more than that really starts to risk of room
真的开始 and really starts to
大幅上升, rise dramatically and
你不会想要更多的 you don't want to go much more than that
我会给你们一些一般的指导方针 I'm going to give you some general guidelines
然后我们要 and then we're going to
我们马上回到刚才的内容 back into all the stuff in just a minute
让我先来打个基础 so let me just sort of lay the groundwork here
我的定位指南也定位尺寸指南 my position guidelines also position sizing guidelines
我从来不会超过8%停止 I don't ever go more than 8% stop
10%停止的最大值 maxim of 10% stop
我还是会用到它 and again I'm going to use that
因为我们要回去 because we're going to back
到的风险 into the risk
根据我们的止损和仓位大小 based on our stop and based on our position size
它们是相辅相成的 they go hand in hand
但我可能会停10%甚至12% but I might have a 10 or even a 12% stop
如果我的车停错了 if I have a staggered stop
举个例子，我是6% so for instance I'm 6% on one
我 and I'm
另外4% 4% on the other
现在总共是10% now that's 10% total
如果是一半一半 if it's half and half
一半在4点，一半在6点，我停了5%的车 half out at four half out at six I've got a 5% stop
同样的，6和10是16% same things maybe a six and a 10 that's 16%
那是8% that would be an 8%
所以我仍然要承担8%的最大风险 so I'd still be risking that maximum of 8%
但这一站我得走路了 but I'd be staggering this stop
这是我唯一一次超过8% so that's the only time I go above 8%
通常是在我摇晃的时候 usually is if I'm staggering it
但我的平均损失 but my average loss
我了解马克 and I know mark
你的平均损失可能比这还要严重 your average loss is probably even tighter than this
我的实际 mine actually
因为我做过很多短发 because I've been doing a lot of short
这是去年的定期交易 term trading this last year
要紧得多 is a lot tighter
但从历史上看，我的平均损失 but historically my average losses
有些是5%左右 some are the neighborhood of five percent
4%有时是6% six percent sometimes in the fours
通常是在事情进展顺利的时候 usually when things are going really well
大概是3点半到4点 that's like three and a half to four
正常情况下大概是四到五岁 when things are normal it's about four to five
当事情进展不顺利的时候就是5点到6点 and when things aren't going so well it's five to six
我不知道 I don't know
我不知道你有没有那个数字标记 I don't know if you even have that number mark
但是你可能知道你是对的 but you probably know around about where you are right
当然，是的，我就在我就在4点左右 sure yeah I'm right around I'm right around four
所以当事情进展顺利时 so when things are going well
更像是2到3个 it's more like two to three
当他们表现不好的时候，大概是5分钟 and when they're going poorly it's about five right so
这是平均值 so and again this is our average
你知道 you know
这并不意味着我们要削减的每一支股票 this doesn't mean that every stock we're cutting out at
我们的底线是百分之四五还是百分之六 were drawing the line at that four or five or 6%
但如果你的最高止损率是8% but if your maximum stop is say 8%
那么平均值要小于这个数，对吧 well then your average has to be less than that right
所以再一次 so and again
你会吃一些的 you're gonna have some
会炸过你那一站的 that are gonna blow through your stop
和 and
有时你的损失会超过8% occasionally you're going to get bigger losses than 8%
但这种情况不应该经常发生 but it shouldn't happen too often
它应该是真正的异常值 it should be real outliers
位置大小 position size
每只股票的实际仓位大小 the actual size of the position itself for each stock
我的目标是最优25%甚至更高 I'm shooting for an optimal 25% or even greater
有时50% sometimes 50%
你知道这 you know this
过去的一年绝对是 this last year was definitely a
蛮荒的西部 a wild wild west
我的目标是月球 me shooting for the moon
做大量的短期交易 and doing a lot of short term trading and putting some
巨大的头寸规模 gigantic position sizes on
这绝对是针对大多数季节和专业交易员的 that's for the absolute most season and expert traders
而且只有在合适的条件下 and only under the right conditions
但回头看看我的表现 but going back and looking at my performance
回到甚至 going back even
回去 going back
你知道，到九十年代我赢得第一届美国冠军的时候 you know to the nineties when I won the first u s
在冠军中我的 in best in championship my
我的平均 my average
较大仓位的仓位规模约为25% position size for the bigger positions was about 25%
但是数学25% but mathematically 25%
如果你是二比一的交易者 if you're a two to one trader
你的最佳水平是25% that sort of your optimal level is 25%
现在 now
再一次，我要 and again I'm gonna
你知道 you know
马克，我会不断地弹给你看 mark I'm gonna constantly bounce to you to just see
你也知道你的数字在哪里 you know where your numbers are too
马克现在的交易规模比 mark's trading you know much larger now than
他是在开始 he was in the beginning
当他开始用这种风格的时候 when he started with this style
差不多十多年前 almost more than a decade ago
大约11 12年前 about 11 12 years ago
在他上了第一个交易大师课程之后 after he came to the first master trader program
现在你当然知道他正在经营一家更大的公司 and now of course you know he's managing a much larger
钱的数额在他自己的钱和 amount of money in his own money and also
用他为家庭管理的所有资金 with any managed money that he's managed for family
但是你还是 but again mark you're still
保持仓位大小 keeping your position sizes
你知道你没有把你的全部 you know you're not putting your whole
你的整个账户变成一股的权利 your whole account into one stock right
没错，我从来没有 correct yeah I've never actually
你对去年的事很了解 you know to your point about last year
有时候你会说，嘿 you know there were times where you said hey
你把你的全部 you put your whole
你的全部或有时甚至 your whole e count or sometimes even
把你知道的变成一个名字 levered you know into into one name
我从来没这么做过 I've never done that
所以最大的一次大概是50% so the biggest I've ever gone is about 50%
在过去的四五年里，我 and then in the last probably four five years I
不要认为我已经超过了30%到35% don't think I've gone over say 30 35 %
我想其中一个原因是 yeah I think one of the reasons why
我认为这很重要 I think that's important
从马克那里听到的是 to hear from mark is that
一年前马克涨了百分之三百多 a year ago mark was up over three hundred percent
三百五十 three hundred and fifty percent
而且不是在两万美元的账户上 and it wasn't on you know $20,000 account
这是数百万美元 this was multi millions of dollars
所以很高兴听到你可以 and so it's really good to hear that you can
获得那种类型的回报 get that type of return
你不需要拿走 and you don't have to take
这些巨大的位置 these monstrous positions
这同样取决于环境 and again it depends on the environment
那是一个环境 that was an environment where
Swing运行得非常好 swing was working really good
那是我们最好的一个 that was one of our really one of our better
简单的美元环境 easy dollar environments
当然对我来说，这是最后一年 and this last year of course for me
获得巨大的回报 getting the big return
这是短线交易的绝佳环境 it was a great environment for short term trading
所以 so again
这要视情况而定，但让我给你们展示一下背后的数学原理 it depends but let me show you the math behind this
现在如果你有25%的仓位大小 so now if you have a 25% position size
你要停止5%的交易 and you were to put a 5% stop
在这里我给你们做了一些计算 and right here I just did a little math for you
你有10万美元的投资组合25%是2万5 you got $100,000 portfolio 25% it's 25 grand
如果你要拿走5% and if you were to take a 5%
别说了，那可是1250美元 stop on that that's 1250 bucks
用1250美元除以10万美元 you take 1250 bucks divided by the $100,000
股权总额的1.25% 1.25% of total equity right
所以现在如果是10%的停止，那就是2.5 so now if it was a 10% stop it would be your 2.5
这就是我们 and that's where we sort of
正确地计算出这些最优数字 get into those optimal numbers right
5%止损是平均水平 so 5% stop is your average
10%是你的上限 10% stop would be your max
25%的位置可以让你从1.25升到2.5% 25% position that would get you that 1.25 to 2.5%
总权益风险 risk of total equity
那就是你想要经营的地方 that's where you want to operate
如果你得到的更少 now if you get much less
比这集中 concentrated than that
然后你开始往下走 and you start getting down where you're about
点，二点五，点五，可以 point two five percent point five percent that's fine
这很好 that's fine
当你第一次把脚趾伸进水里的时候 when you're first putting your toe in the water
但是,如果 but if
最终你想要达到一个最佳的仓位大小 ultimately you want to get to an optimal position size
你冒着 where you're risking
适量，不要太多 just the right amount where it's not too much
有点像金发女孩 sort of like the goldilocks
不太热也不太冷 not too hot not too cold
温度要恰到好处 want to have the just right temperature
关于仓位大小 on your position sizing
这是基于总权益的风险 and that's based on risk of total equity
很简单，如果你选择一个较小的头寸 so very simply if you were to take a smaller position
我们假设是百分之十二点五的位置 a 12 and a half percent position we're assuming
假设你的满仓率是25% let's assume that your full position is 25 %
超重则是50 and overweight would be 50
半的位置是120.5 and a half position would be 12 0.5
120.5来保持1.25%的权益 so 12 0.5 to keep that same 1.25% of total equity
你可以停10%的车 you could go to a 10% stop
你仍然要承担总股本1.25%的风险 and you would still be risking 1.25% of total equity
现在我们用另一种方法 now we go to the other way
我们增加了位置的大小 and we increase the position size
我们要做什么 what do we have to do
保持1.25%的总权益 well to keep that same 1.25% of total equity
我们现在必须使用2.5%的止损率 we would now have to use a 2.5 % stop
如果从这里开始翻倍 and again if we doubled it from there
然后它将停止1.25% then it would go to a 1.25% stop
等等，这些共同作用 and so on so again these work together
这些一起工作 these work together
现在是这样的 now here's the
我想给你们展示几种不同的 I want to show you the difference between a few ways of
去 getting to
首先，你 well first of all you're
就像水中的拖车 like a tow in the water
马克，我想谈谈这个问题 and mark I want to talk about that a little bit
现在和你在一起 a little bit with you right now
关于你知道你如何 about you know how you
进入市场的第一种方式 put your first sort of entry into the market
因为我们已经把脚伸进水里了 because we've been sticking our toe in the water here
,这是 and it's been
寒冷而我们保持 ice cold and we keep
你知道的，发现它不值得写 you know finding out that it's not worth putting
再往水里走 anymore into the water here
所以我一般 so I generally
开始以两种方式中的一种进行投资 start getting invested in one of two ways
这要看情况 and it really depends
但 but
要么我说 I'll either take say
几个小仓位，投资25% a couple small positions and get to 25% invested
通常我都是这么做的 usually I'm trying to get to that
我四分之一的钱都投进去了 quarter of my money invested
如果你有10万 so if you had a hundred thousand
是两万五千美元 to be twenty five thousand bucks right
所以你可以 so you can take
你可以用四种姿势 you can go with four positions
在这个例子中，四个六点二五个位置 four six point two five positions in this example
这样你就有25%的投资 and that would get you to twenty five percent invested
正确的 right
或者你可以买125%的头寸 or you could buy one twenty five percent position
这又有点冒险了 now again this is a little bit more risky
百分之一点五的位置 the one twenty five percent position
相同的曝光虽然 same exposure though
25%的投资 right 25% invested
但如果是四只股票，你就有点 but again with four stocks you're a little
你更多元化 you're more diversified
所有的股票都押在一个名字上 with the one stock it's all being bet on that one name
现在我认识了马克，但不确定是什么时候 now I know mark I'm not sure when
你会从一个到另一个 you will go from one to the other
我喜欢尽可能少使用名字 I like to have the least amount of names possible
我只有在必要的时候才会第一次露面 I only get to firstify sort of when I have to
你知道如果如果 you know if if
如果外面真的真的很艰难的话 if it's really really tough out there
那么我就会选择非常小的位置 then I take really tiny positions
我开始构建 I start building
我可能会进入第一种情况 and I might get into this first scenario
但只要一切正常 but as soon as things are working
或者我感觉到任何程度的控制 or I feel any degree of control
在我的交易 over my trading
我想要更大的仓位 I'm trying to get to the larger positions
你有没有开始你知道你在哪里，或者 do you ever start off you know where you're either or
这背后有什么原因吗 and is there a reasoning behind
你是否会和我一起去 whether you would go maybe with
只是一个完整的位置，对四个小的 just a full position versus the four smaller ones yes
这是一张非常好的图表 this is actually a really good graphic
我还没看过这个呢 I haven't seen this till you know
我一开始有点瞎 I kind of came into this a little blind
因为我是个视觉型的人 because I'm a visual guy
所以对于那些视觉上的人 so for those of you guys who are visual
就像我们描述的那样 exactly we described I might even
比如左边的例子 so let's say your example on the left
我可以取一个小方块 I might just take one little square
如果你用6.25来考虑的话 you know if you're thinking of it in terms of a 6.25
如果这开始起作用 and if that starts working
我可以加上一个大的正方形 I might add then one big square
你知道我可能会跳得那么快，这取决于设置 you know I might jump that quickly depending on setups
通常我不会随便抓 normally I won't just grab
一个大的位置 one big position
例外是 the exception would be
假设没有太多的想法 let's say there's not a lot of ideas
但是我们有一些积累 but we've had some type of accumulation
你知道的，或者跟进一天之类的 you know or a follow through day or something like that
我知道这里面有圈套 and there's a setup that I know
或者我觉得嘿 or that I feel like hey
如果底部在 if the bottom is in
或者说这个市场很好，不应该失败 or this market is good here this shouldn't fail
我会抓住 I'll grab that
我能想到的最近的一个例子是 so the most recent example I can think of is
当我们有一天的跟踪 when we had that follow through day
我记得是4月5日或6日 I think was April 5th or six
回到20年20年 back in 20 20
当时并没有很多股票 there weren't a lot of stocks
市场严重超卖 market was deeply oversold
我买亚马逊是因为它是 I bought amazon because it was
我只是用了一个百分比 it was starting to emerge and I just used a percentage
别再说亚马逊在这里行不通了 stop saying if amazon can't work here
无法工作的 nothing's gonna work
所以我时不时会这样做 and so every now and again I'll do that
但这更多的是例外，而不是规律 but that's more the exception than the rule
但通常我会选择两者的混合体 but usually I'll do like a hybrid between the two
所以我可能会在六点半抓两个 so I might grab two at six and a half
六点一刻 at six and a quarter
如果可以，我12点的时候再去拿一个 and if they work then I'll grab maybe one at 12
但这正是你所描述的 but it just what you describe
只要他们能工作，我宁愿 as soon as they're working I'd rather
我宁愿顶替你 I'd rather fill in
如果我从左边开始 so if I did that left
举个例子，我有四个小的 hand example there I've got four small ones
四个小脚趾 four little toes
我要用三个大脚趾 I'm gonna go to three big toes
如果他们还在工作，我想尽快离开 if they're working I'm looking to quickly go
让它上升 to bump it up
所以即使我再加一个，它也不会 so even if I add one more and it doesn't
我宁愿来来回回 I would rather jockey back and forth
然后加入大 then add big
如果他们工作 if they're working
因为我只需要右击 because I only have to hit that right
有一次 you know one time
然后向前迈出一大步 to then take a really big step forward
当 and when
对于那些没看过幻灯片的人来说 and for someone who hasn't seen the slides you're
你在对着下一张幻灯片说话 you're you're talking to the next slide
不是这张幻灯片，而是这张未来的幻灯片 not this slide but the future slides here
所以你会看到 so you'll see
正是你所说的 exactly what you're talking about
我们马上就会讲到 we're gonna we're gonna get into in just a second here
现在让我 now let me just
在那之前先说几句 real quick before I do that
接下来我们会详细讨论马克刚才说的 and we're gonna talk more about what mark just said
当你走进去 when you go in
与这些 with these
更小的仓位或者你进入市场的方式 smaller positions or however you go into the market
我在冒险 I'm trying to risk
我在考虑每一种木块 I'm thinking of each sort of block here
每25%的暴露 each of 25% exposure
把这四个区块想象成25%的敞口 think of these four blocks as 25% exposure
好吧，我可以用很多方法来解释 okay I can get to that in a number of ways
好吧，假设我除前25 all right but let's just say I go into that first 25
%五个位置 % with five positions
如果我在这五个位置使用5%的止损 well if I'm used 5% stops on those five positions
或者我一般会说 or my average stop will say
我们就用这个平均值 we're gonna go with that average
这就给了我总权益的1.25% that's giving me that 1.25% of total equity right
所以如果我如果我花点时间 so if I if I take time
停四站 four stops on that
如果我做对了四次 if I do that four times right
如果我去做 if I go into it
假设我错过了四次 let's say I miss it four times
我进入市场四次 I go in four entries into the market
我损失了5% I'm at a 5% loss
我试着带着五个仓位入市 and I've tried to enter the market with five positions
四次 four times
我相信如果你明白我在说什么 I'm sure if you understand what I'm saying here
要确保我没听错 want to make sure I'm clear
所以我就进去了 so I go in with
5只股票25%的敞口 five stocks 25% exposure
这将是 it would be
显然他们比四分之一的头寸要小 obviously they're smaller than quarter positions
比四分之一的头寸小一点 a little bit smaller than quarter positions
我做什么都被阻止了 I get stopped out of everything
我做什么都被拦下 I get stopped at everything
我现在损失了总权益的1.25% I lose 1.25% of my total equity now
好的，市场又开始运转了 okay market things start setting up again
我又试了五个姿势，再做一次 I try another five positions I do it again
我做了四次 I do that four times
我还是只跌了5% I'm still only down 5%
我试过了，我试过了 and I've tried I've tried
20只股票 20 stocks
好吧，所以现在这可能不会发生 right so now that's probably not gonna happen that way
这就是为什么我的收益很低 that's why I have very low drawdowns
因为我一般不会 because I'm not generally gonna
保持这样做 keep doing that
如果事情不顺利 if things aren't working
我将把它缩小得更小 I'm going to even scale it down even more
让我再深入一点 but let me take this a bit further
在这里再次 and here again
我今天在推特上发了一些东西 I tweeted something today
我想让你们看看这个 and I want you guys to take a look at this
在我们继续之前 before we move on
我说的是最大的 I said one of the biggest
风险和交易 risk and trading
不知道自己战术的局限性吗 is not knowing the limitations of your own tactics
如果你持有亏损，那么巨额亏损可能会让你崩溃 if you hold losses then big losses can blow you up
如果你减少损失 if you cut losses short
然后一系列的小损失会让你崩溃 then a series of small losses can blow you up
每个交易员都必须有一个保护计划 every trader must have a protection plan against his
自己的本性 own nature
现在我告诉你们这个的原因是 now the reason why I'm telling you this is because
我们尽可能地承受小损失 we take a lot of small losses right where we cans
我们不会坐等损失惨重 we're not going to sit there and hold a big loss
所以我们不用担心 so we don't have to worry
关于我们的巨大损失 about the big losses blowing us up
但我们还是要担心 but we do have to worry about
关注并缓和 and be concerned with and mitigate
大量的小损失 lot of small losses
因为你可以进去 because you could go in there
我相信你们中的一些人也会有同感 and I'm sure some of you can relate to this
你一次又一次地进去 that you go in there and over and over and over
你不停地停，停，停，然后 you get stopped and stopped and stopped and then
你损失惨重 you rack up a big loss
这就是渐进式暴露真正有帮助的地方 that's where progressive exposure really helps
减轻, mitigate that
我们正在确保这一点 and we're making sure that
你知道你没有咄咄逼人 you know you're not getting aggressive
直到一切顺利 until things are working
这就是我们要做的 so that's what we're gonna
这就是我们今天要谈的话题 that's what we're gonna talk to today
现在 now
在我们回去之前 before we go back again
我告诉过你我要回去 I told you I was going to go back to
马克在说什么啊 what mark was talking about
但 but
让我们快速地谈谈渐进式暴露 let's just talk real quick about progressive exposure
这里的渐进式暴露只是从小处开始 here progressive exposure is simply starting small
还有你的工作方式 and working your way up
甚至是往下挖 or even working your way down
如果事情不顺利 if things aren't working
你会一直往下走 you would be working your way down
如果交易有效 if trades are working
然后你再慢慢提高曝光率 then you would work your way up with exposure
所以我们通常从这些小的试点购买开始 so we generally start with these smaller pilot buys
这可以让你进入 and that can get you into
你可以从25%的位置开始 where again you can start off with that 25 % position
也就是25%的敞口 that would be 25% exposure
这将是进入该市场的一个试点 and that would be a pilot entry into the market
但这仍然是一个很大的头寸 but it's still a big position right
或者你有 or maybe you got
这是一个液体的名字，你有一个很紧的停顿 that's a liquid name and you got a tight stop
很好，你要坐大点的位置还是 great you take that bigger position or
也许你买对了这四支股票 maybe you buy those four stocks right
你还是25% and you're still 25%
有6.25% there's 6.25%
但你要等到 but you're not bumping that exposure until
你开始得到一些 you start getting some
最初交易的牵引力 traction from those initial trades
或者至少一次交易一次 or at least from even one trade at a time
我们要讨论的是 we're just going to talk about
一次只看一笔交易 look at one trade at a time
好,不过 okay so though
一般的规则是 general rule is though
如果你在25%上做得不好 if you're not doing well at 25 %
你不应该到50 you shouldn't go to 50
如果你在50岁的时候做得不好，你就不应该去75岁 if you're not good at 50 you shouldn't go to 75
等等 and so on
直到你适应了小曝光 until you're doing well with the small exposure
你没有把它往上移 you don't move it up
让我来告诉你为什么 and let me show you why
这是你的第一支股票 so here's your first stock right
你摆一个四分之一的姿势 you take a quarter position
假设我们知道我们在看它 and let's just say we know we're looking at it
从…的角度来看 from a standpoint of
以2比1的价格出售 just selling it at two to one
如果我们进行2小时交易，你知道我们出局了 if we get a 2h trade you know we're out
这只是举个例子 this is just for example purposes
所以我们用4%的止损率 so we use a 4% stop on this
250美元500美元，交易就会上升 it's 250 bucks 500 bucks the trade goes up
我们卖得好 we sell it right
好吧，我们现在有500美元了 okay we've got 500 bucks now
现在它能找到我们了 now that can find us
我们现在可以把它移到120.5%的右边 we can step it now up to a 12 0.5% position right
这500美元 and that $500
财务状况,停止 finances that stop
现在我们已经资助了这一站 now we've just financed that stop
假设我们又有一笔成功的交易 so now let's just say we have another winning trade
好吧 all right
我们连续几笔交易都赢了 we get a couple winning trades in a row and same thing
二赔一，我们拿1000块 two to one we take 1000 bucks
哦，我们存了1500美元 oh we've banked now we've now banked $1500 okay
现在我们可以向上移动到一个完整的位置 so now we can move up to a full position
还是那4%吧 get stopped on that at the same 4%
而且还有500美元 and still have 500 bucks
而且还有钱去一半的位置 and still have money to go to a half position
让我来告诉你这是怎么回事 let me show you how that works
如果你开始让自己好起来，你就会开始 also if you start to get yourself well you start to get
一场像样的小跑 a decent little run
你可能会得到三四个 and you might be get three or four
一行交易就行了 trades in a row that work
当你开始逐渐向上移动 and as you start progressively moving up
你开始为很多期货交易融资 you start financing a lot of future trades
现在你可以更有攻击性了 and now you can get more aggressive
在这个例子中 so in this example
我们从四分之一的位置开始，就赢了 we start off with a quarter position we get a win
我们把球打到一半就赢了 we take it to a half position we get a win
一个完整的位置我们就赢了 a full position we get a win
现在我们已经存了3500美元 now what we've done is we've banked 3500 bucks
现在我们有三个全职职位 and now we finance three full position
三个全位和半位 three full positions and a half position
我们现在所能得到的我们可以一直向上移动 and what we can take now we can move all the way up to
87年0.5%的曝光 87 0.5% exposure
基本无风险 basically risk free
就原则而言 as far as principles concern
因为我们积累了利润 because we built up that profit
这就是我们所说的融资风险 this is what we call financing risk
融资风险的方式有很多 and there's a lot of ways to finance risk
这只是从逐步暴露的角度来看 this is just from a standpoint of progressive exposure
从现金开始，然后往上走 starting with cash and moving to a higher
一个更 a more
集中投资的位置 concentrated invested position
现在回到 now going back to
马克在说什么啊 what mark was talking about
我认为这些图像会更多 and I think these graphics are gonna more
说出你要说的，现在标记在哪里 speak to what you're saying mark where now
你能得到什么更集中 what you can get more concentrated
当你开始增加你的曝光率 as you start to increase your exposure
有几种不同的方法可以做到这一点 in a couple different ways you can do this
马克指的是 so what mark was referring to is
从这四个小的仓位开始 starting off with those four smaller positions
但现在一切正常 but now things are working alright
现在我们投资了25% so now we go from 25 % invested
到50，也就是暴露 to 50 which is exposure
好吧，暴露了，但我们的浓度提高了 okay exposure but our concentration actually picks up
现在我们有了四分之一的位置 so now we go we have the four positions the quarters
现在我们加上2 / 2 and now we add two halfs
现在我们已经从 so now we've been moving from
从四个姿势到六个姿势 four positions to six positions
只要再加两个位置，我们就能往上走 and only two more positions would move us up
和这四个位置一样多 just as much as the four positions
它也可以这样工作 now that can also work in this way
我说话的方式 the way that I said that I
经常这样做 very often do it
我就从这个开始吧 is I'll start off with that
125%的位置 one twenty five percent position
如果这行得通的话 and then if that's working
我将移到50，再加25 I'll move up to 50 and add another 25
现在我投资了50%，但我只有两只股票 now I'm at 50% invested but I only have two stocks
有两种不同的方法 so you can get there in two different ways
马克认为这说得通 mark is this making sense
所以你之前说的完全正确 so what you were talking about before exactly right
是啊现在 yeah now
你也可以得到 you can also get
越来越暴露 progressively more exposed
而不是提高你的注意力 and not increase your concentration
这不是在哪里 all right so that wouldn't be where
从25%的股票开始 okay start off at 25 percent one stock
好吧，交易成功了 okay that trade's working
也许你涨了8% - 10% maybe you're up let's say up eight ten percent
很好，我们又做了一笔交易 okay great we put out another trade
好吧 all right
或者即使我们卖掉那只股票，我们也能获利 or if even if we sold that stock we took that profit
我们又买了两只股票 we buy two more stocks
不管怎样，现在我们投资了50% either way now we're 50% invested
一切正常 all right things are working
一切都很顺利 things are going pretty good
代理一切正常 everything's acting normal
现在是100 now we move to 100
我们有四个完整的位置，这是一个方向 and we have four full positions that's one way
这是另一种方法 here's another way you can do it
你现在是如何逐步提高的呢 where you now you incrementally step it up
在这个例子中，你增加了曝光率 so in this example you're adding exposure
你的注意力越来越集中 and your increasing concentration
这就多了一点 so this is a little more
如果你愿意，风险会小一些 a little less risky if you will
从四个位置开始 so now you start off at four positions right
等于25% that equals 25 %
这些当然是6.25% these of course would be 6.25% each
现在你增加了2个12.5%的位置 now you add 2 12 and a half percent positions
正如我们在前一盏灯上看到的 as we saw on the previous light
然后再加上两个完整的位置 and then from there now we add two full positions
现在我们有两个满的位置两个半 so now we have two full positions two halfs
4/4，总共是 4/4 for a total of
八个位置 eight positions
这是另一种增加接触的方式 so another way where you can increase your exposure
变得更加集中 and get more concentrated
我基本上是两者的混合体 I basically use a hybrid of the two
会的，但这里没有 it's going to be and this there's not
这里没有什么神奇的答案 there's not going to be a magic answer here
不可能是你拿了四个 it's not going to be like you take four
当它这样做的时候 and when this does this you add to
这才是真正的艺术 this is really the art of it
但你必须知道它背后的数学原理 but you've got to know the math behind it
你必须这么做 and you've got to
一旦你开始 once you start
理解这些和这些图形就在你的脑海中 understanding this and these graphics are in your mind
你将开始在你的交易中应用它 you'll start to apply this in your trading
你真的会 and you'll really sort of
明白你在哪里，界限在哪里 understand where you are and where the boundaries are
上端和下端以及应该在哪里 the upper end and the lower end and where to be
基本上你想要达到最优水平 and basically you want to get to that optimal level
但在这里的所有时间都要记住这一点 but all this time here keep this in mind
这里发生的一切 everything that's going on here
占总股本的1.25% it's all 1.25% of total equity
或者不超过总股本的2.5% or no more than 2.5% of total equity
这意味着有可能 that would mean that maybe
这两个位置 these two positions right here
如果这些都是满的职位 if these are full positions
那他们就不能再停车了 well then they can't have stops any more than
X平分给我总数的1.25% x to give me 1.25% of total equally
但是这些位置会变小 but these positions as they get smaller
它们显然可以有更多的空间 they obviously can have a little bit more room
因为它仍然是总股本的1.25% because it still would be 1.25% of total equity
但是当我们取整体的平均值时 but when we take the average of the whole thing
你将获得总股本的1.25% 1.25% of total equity is what you're going to get
这就是你的按摩方式 so that's how you sort of massage your way into this
马克，你有吗? mark do you any
任何 any
评论一下你会怎么做 comments on how you would get to this or you know
或者用你自己的方法 or your own way of applying this
对这张幻灯片的一个很好的评论 yeah a really good comment on this slide or the one
也许两个早 maybe two earlier
我认为法拉迪加是新的 I think the faladigas that are new
我几乎要截图了 I would almost take a screenshot
或者只是研究一下这个 or just kind of study this
因为我想说的另一点是 because the other point I would make is that
你的胜利和失败不是 your wins and losses aren't
在我的经验中并不是平均分布的 in my experience are not evenly distributed
它们往往是成群出现的 they tend to come in bunches
这是你想要交易的备注 and this is remarks as you want to be trading
当事情进展顺利的时候，你会做到最好 your best when things are working
和你的最小的时候，他们不那么形象 and your smallest when they're not so picture
就像我曾经看过的一样 you know like I think I looked at this one time
我曾经连赢过十七八个失败者 I once had 17 or 18 losers in a row
你想让那些在大的 do you want those to be at the big
走到那边，向右转 square over there to the right
或者是那些很小的正方形 or the tiny little squares
就在左边 right over there to the left
同样，在我人生中最美好的时期之一 and similarly in one of my best periods I think I had
15 16 17连胜 15 16 17 winners in a row
如果这些都是 so if all of those are
或者其中很大一部分是那些更大的头寸 or a big chunk of those are those bigger positions
你可以看到如何赚大钱 you can see how you can make a ton of money
很快 really quickly
如果你做对了，我想说的是这是值得的 if you get this right and I'm saying there it is worth
有点开玩笑了 getting jocking around a little bit
或者因为风险 or because the risk
牺牲是 the sacrifice is
有时候你会被砍 sometimes you get chopped around
试着找到合适的位置 trying to get properly position
但这是权衡的结果 but this is that's the trade off
你们当中有些人认识 you know some of you guys
你会感到沮丧，因为 you know you get frustrated because
好吧 well
我买了一个小的，然后我撞了，被拦下了 I bought one small and then I bumped and I got stopped
现在我扯平了 and now I'm at even
伟大的你 great you were
能够撬动一点 able to lever up a little
一点儿也没输 bit and didn't lose any money
这是我的看法 that's the way I look at it
是的，有时确实令人沮丧，马克 yeah it can be frustrating right at times mark
如果你没有承诺 and if you're not committed to
你知道它的风险管理方面 you know the risk management aspect of it and
要明白这是一种保险策略 understand that this is an insurance policy
是的，你现在把它加起来，你 yeah you okay so now you bump it up and you're
你在这里投资 you're invested over here
一切都开始对你不利 and everything starts moving against you
而下面这里，投资不多 and then down here you're not very much invested
事情进展顺利 and things are moving well
但没错，你会在该走的时候走 but yes you're gonna zag when you should
你知道 you know
你要时不时地走弯路，还是 you're gonna zig zag and zig from time to time or
或者是相反的 or the opposite
但是莉斯 but again liz
马克说 mark said
当市场走向时，当事情做得很好时 when the market's trending when things are doing well
这将会 this is going to
保证你交易你的 guarantee you to be trading your
当你交易最好的时候，最大的 largest when you're trading your best
当你交易最差的股票时，你的最小股票 and your smallest when you're trading your worst
这就是关键 and that's the key
这是逐步曝光的关键 that is really the key of progressive exposure
在这张幻灯片和这句话里有一笔财富 there's a fortune in this slide and in that statement
真的有 there really is
这真的是 it really is
这是主要的关键之一 and this is really the one of the main keys
来管理风险并做得很好 to managing risk and doing really well
你知道我叫什么吗 and you know what I call you know
能够 being able to
你知道 and you know
我总是说你要学会如何成为一个 I always say you have to learn how to be a
事情顺利的时候是猪 pig when things are going well
当事情发生的时候，做个胆小鬼 and be a chicken when things are going
你知道这并不顺利 you know aren't going well
在超级激进分子之间摇摆不定 and fluctuate between being a super aggressive
猪，找不到更好的词了 pig for lack of a better term
而这只远离我的鸡 and this chicken who stays away and
坐在他们的手上 sits on their hands
这是一门艺术 that's you know that's an art
但我们也试着在背后加入一些科学 but we try to put some science behind it too
给你这些 and give you these
在这些指导方针内操作 these guidelines to operate within
然后是文体 and then it's stylistic
我的意思是你可以 I mean you may
你可能是一个交易员或投资者 you may be a trader or an investor that just
我可不想用那种手腕，你知道的 doesn't want the type of wrist to be taking you know
四个25%的姿势没问题 four twenty five percent positions that's okay
这很好，但你不应该这么做 that's fine but you certainly shouldn't have
你当然不应该让你知道 you certainly shouldn't have you know
20或30个名字 20 or 30 names either
有一个有一个最优 there is a there is an optimal
你想要进入的区域，我们找到了 zone that you want to be in and we found that
你知道那是在4之间的任何地方 you know that's anywhere between you know four
5个位置到8个或12个位置 five positions to maybe eight or 12
如果你管理着一大笔钱 if you were managing a lot of money
也许是对冲基金或者你的经理 maybe a hedge fund or your manager
一个庞大的家庭账户 a big family account
大概16到20个位置的绝对最大值 maybe 16 or 20 positions at the absolute max with
很多 a lot of
更小的头寸和部分头寸等等 smaller positions and partial positions and so forth
但这就是你的指导方针 but that sort of your guidelines
但这并不重要 but still doesn't matter
总数的1.25%等于2.5的最大值 the 1.25% of total equate up to a max of 2.5
如果你在这方面有经验 if you're experienced at this
那是你想去的地方 that's where you want to be
你不想承担比这更大的风险 and you don't want to be much more risk than that
让我来告诉你一些方法 let me just show you a few ways also how
你可以用这个 you could be using this
不仅如此，渐进式曝光也不仅在 not only so progressive exposure is not only in
添加名字，但它也在股票本身内 adding names but it's also within the stock itself
在这些不同的支点购买 and buying at these various pivots
所以可以把它想象成两层 so think of it two folds
就当你有了曝光率 think of it as you've got exposure
实际上我刚刚想到了三次 well I've just actually think of three fold
你有接触，逐渐接触 you have exposure and and progressively exposing
你有浓度 you have concentration
哪一个是相辅相成的 which is going to go hand in hand
积极与暴露 with aggressively exposing
但正如我所指出的，你可以更专注 but as I point out you can be more concentrated
你知道，你不需要 you know and you don't have to necessarily have
更多的接触 more exposure
你有四个位置 you have four positions
而且不像两个头寸那么暴露 and be less exposed than two positions
第三步是 now also the third leg of that is to
逐渐暴露于一个特定的名称 progressively expose to a specific name
这就是仓位调整 and that's with your position sizing
你可以从 you might start with
, 6.25%的位置 that 6.25% position
但它可能来自一个低水平的作弊 but it might be coming from a low cheat
现在你得到了另一份工作，实际上 and now you're offered another entry that actually
提高了设置 improves the setup
在这里，马克你绝对可以和这个说话 and this is where mark you definitely can talk to this
因为我们经常这样做 because we do this all the time
马克经常这么做 and mark does this all the time
在哪里 where
我们开始像这样购买，我们有这个 we're starting maybe to buy like here we have this
Maxigin建立了这个装载表 maxigin which set up this load sheet right here okay
现在稍微低一点 now it's a little bit lower
交易可能是因为你需要一些供应 probably trade because you are going to some supply
马上就掉下来了 it's coming right off
这里的低点 the lows here
但这是一个双轴 but that's a biable pivot
也许你可以从一个25美分的硬币开始 so maybe you start right there with a quarter
一个一半的位置 a half position
现在收紧得很好 now it tightens up really nice
这真是太完美了 I mean this just gets perfect
它在范围的中间 it's in the middle of the range
现在你已经找到了作弊区域 you've now got yourself the cheat area
现在你可以把它加到 and now you can add to it and maybe take it up to
也许从四分之一到二分之一 maybe from a quarter to a half
或者从半杯到满杯 or from a half to a full
现在你的曝光率很高 and now you're getting that exposure
你提高了曝光率 you're ramping up that exposure
但这一切都在一个名字里 but it's all within one name
也许这甚至可以建立一个把手 and maybe this even sets up a handle
它没有起飞，也没有设置手柄 this did not it took off and didn't set up a handle
这就是为什么我们有这些不同的点 but this is why we have these various by points
它不是 and it's not a
交易不是孤注一掷的决定 trading is not an all or nothing decision
你不需要在这里买所有的东西 you don't have to just buy everything right here
这个可能会起飞 and this might take off
你知道你没有提供其他的支点 and you know you're not offering those other pivots
或者你可能得不到低作弊率 or you may not get the low cheat
你可能会得到 and you might just get
柄或柄 a cheat or a handle
所以它 so it's going
以各种不同的方式表现出来 to manifest itself in a bunch of different ways
但目标是你自己 but the goal is for you
要有工具和战术 to have the tools and the tactics
能够申请 to be able to apply
你有不同的楼层 and you've got these various floors
如果你几乎像停在楼层上的电梯 if you were almost like an elevator stopping on floors
你可以在不同的楼层上买这些股票 you've got these various floors to get on these stocks
然后你的 and then your
观察并逐渐入市 watching and moving in gradually into the stocks
随着这些股票开始从这些支点起作用 and as these stocks start working from these pivots
你会得到更多 and you get more of them
现在你的暴露度提高了浓度也提高了 now you're moving up your exposure your concentration
所有这些共同作用 and all this works together
这需要很长时间 and it takes a long time
以一种熟练的方式把这些都放在一起 to put this all together in a masterful way
你知道你经常在哪里做吗 where you're doing it you know regularly
你做得很有效率 you're doing it efficiently
是的，但是一旦你 yes but once you
一旦你得到这个，它就变得非常 once you get this it becomes very
这很简单 it comes very easy
这变得很自然，很自然 and it becomes very natural and 2nd nature
你就不会用别的方法了 and you'll never do it another way
我可以向你保证 I can assure you that
让我在这个例子中加上两个标记 let me add two mark in this example
这就是一个很好的例子 this is a perfect example of how
假设你在第一个箭头所在的地方买了东西 let's say you bought where that first arrow is
而你的止损点可能低于这个下限 and your stop was maybe below the low that
这里的小枢轴 that little pivot there
然后改变位置 and then you bump the position
但你把整站都抬高了 but you raise the entire stop under
下一个小区域的下面 below of that next little area
如果你从幻灯片上看，大概是三四年前 well if you think from the slide maybe three four ago
你可以把你的东西叠起来的地方 where you could double up your
你可以用一个来资助另一个 you could use the one to finance the other
现在你有 now you have
两倍的仓位，同样的风险 twice the position with the same amount of risk
现在 right now
现在马克像大卫·瑞恩一样跳了起来 now mark's doing what david ryan does and jump
他跳到了前面，不过没关系 he's jumping ahead but that's okay
没有没关系 no that's okay
你从没见过这样的幻灯片 you never saw the slide so
我还没看过幻灯片 well I haven't seen the slides
但是我说的 but I'm saying
对我来说，这是你能得到的最接近的东西 to me that's the closest thing you're gonna get
通向圣杯 to a holy grail
和交易对吧 and trading right
标记指出的是 and what marks pointing out is
这就是我们所说的养育 this is what we call raising
在不增加风险的情况下增加你的风险 raising your exposure without increasing your risk
所以你可以 so you can actually
提高曝光率，保持风险不变 lever up your exposure and keep your risk the same
还有 and there's
这是另一个教程，但是 that's a whole other tutorial that will do but
当然 and of course
我们在主交易员程序中经常谈到这一点 we talk a lot about that in the master trader program
这些都是其中的管理策略 those are those are management tactics within these
在我们展示的这些战术中 within these tactics that we're showing you
还有更多战术的粒度 there's even more granularity of more tactics and more
位置管理策略 position management tactics
让我们继续，我们会回到那个 let me just move on here we'll get back to that
这是另一个例子 so here's another example where
好吧，假设你在这里买 okay say you're buying right here
从这个枢轴出发 coming out of this pivot right
所以现在股票上涨了 so now stock runs up
谁知道 who knows
也许你卖的东西你也会拿掉一些 maybe even you sell something you take some off
拉回来，再加回来 pulls back and you add it back
或者你可以增加你的职位 or you can add to your position
也许你在这里 maybe you took here
你在四分之一的位置，你在二分之一的位置 you took your quarter position your half position
很好的爆发，很自然的反应 nice breakout very natural reaction
也许你在市场上有一份文件 maybe you got a file through day in the markets
从低谷中走出来 coming right off the lows
而现在，你又退缩了几天 and now you pull back for a few days
一切都井然有序 everything's orderly
好，现在你得到拉回，你可以加 okay now you get the pull back by and you can add
现在你开始 now you start
这就是构建股票的方法 that's how you build into the stock
这就是你 and this is the way that you
如果你打算平均投资一支股票 if you're going to average into a stock
你永远不想平均下来 you never want to average down
你总是想要平均 you always want to average up
只要它还在基地内 as long as it's still within the base
它来自圣经的支点 and it's coming from bible pivots
你可以平均 you can average up
你可以获得更高的职位 you can add to the position at a higher level
你不会想追得太紧 you don't want to chase it up extended and
离开基地 out of the base
但只要它在基地里 but as long as it's in the base
这就是为什么我给你们这些不同的 and that's why I give you these various
现在的入口点也许你不是在这里买的，好吧 entry points now maybe you didn't buy it here okay
你根本就没在这里买 you didn't buy it at all here
但现在它经受住了这次漂亮的回调 but now it weathers this nice pullback
它就在危险点附近交易 and it's trading right near the danger point
因为它下降的远不止这些 because it comes down much more than that
现在开始变得不正常了 now it's starting to get abnormal
从这里看起来很美 turns up from here beautiful
你可以从那里进入，然后开始 you can enter right there and start
也许你可以从这里开始 maybe you start your full position right there
或者可以循序渐进 or you can incrementally
这里有另一个例子 step into it here's another example
这就是你如何知道的 so and again this is how you know
这有点像 this is sort of
我会，我会 I would I would
我会把这个标记和你的变焦交易进行比较 I would compare this mark to maybe your zoom trade
虽然没有确切的 although not exact
但这就是你想要完成的 but this is what you were trying to accomplish with
放大最后一个基地 zoom on that last base
是从作弊开始的吗 where it started turning up from the cheat
当我们在寻找 and when we were looking for
该句柄构建，然后再添加 that handle to build and then looking to add
最理想的情况下，这就是你想要的结果 optimally this is how you'd want it to work out
如果你在哪里 where if you were
未来在这里 coming in here
让我再说一遍 and let me just say this too
有时这里会有生肉 there's sometimes raw going right here
我就满员了 and I'll take my full position
当它形成的时候，我就会超重 and then when it sets up I go overweight
现在我持有很大的头寸 and now I take a big position
它爆发是因为它改善了 it breaks out because it improves
现在你有了一个非常好的 now you got a really nice
很好的基础上伟大的VCP well built out based great vcp
我可能会做短期交易，现在我将卖出一半 and I might I get a short term move now I'll sell half
我会回到正常尺寸的位置，我会用我的 I'll go back to a regular size position I'll use my
超额支付我的风险 overweight to finance my risk
现在我做的是一笔无风险的交易 and now I'm in a risk free trade
所以有很多排列 so there's a lot of permutations
你可以有很多创意 a lot of ways you could be creative with this
但这些是 but these are the
一般的指导方针 general guidelines
以及背后的哲学和方法 and the philosophy behind or the approach behind
positionizing positionizing
使用渐进式曝光，然后 using progressive exposure and then
把 bringing that
然后应用到 into the chart and applying it to
各种枢轴点 the various pivot points that
我让你们在什么时候买，我们在什么时候买 I'm having you guys buy at and that we're buying at
现在这里是什么 now here's where what
马克正在讨论的事情 something mark was just discussing
这是一笔真正的交易 and this was an actual trade
我做了什么，而不是 that I did which wasn't
我不认为这是最好的安排 I don't think it was the greatest setup
但我们在这里有收入差距 but we had an earnings gap here
我在这里买了一些 it set up a cheat a low cheat I bought some here
然后它设置了这个把手，把手变得很紧 then it set up this handle it got real tight
找了一天广场风笛手 got a plaza pipper for one day
我在这里买的，加的 I bought it right here I added to it
但我做的和马克说的一模一样 but what I did was exactly what mark said
这就是 and this is where
我们所说的添加 we call adding
增加和减少尺寸 the add and reduce where you add size
但你要么 but you either
保持相同的停车速度，或者减少停车速度 keep the same stop or you reduce the stop
你有相同或更少的风险 and you're having the same amount of risk or less risk
但拥有更大的仓位规模 but having a bigger position size
我最初的一站在这下面 so my original stop was down here
一旦股票上涨，在右边建好 once the stock moved up and built out this right side
然后从那里逃走了 and then broke out from there
现在我的新站在这个枢轴下面 well now my new stop is below this pivot
我所做的就是移动 so what I did was is I moved
我从这一站到这一站 my stop from here here along with this stop
现在我回头看看原来的 and now I back stop the original by
我已经停止失去的秒 and I've stopped lost the second by
我增加了仓位 and I've increased my position size
但现在我的风险不变 but I've kept my risk same now
也可以是更高的 and again you could be where this could be higher
你可以在更高的地方停止实际上风险更小 you can back stop at higher and it's actually less risk
但在这种情况下，你当然可以看到 but in this case you can see of course
布尔玛，它阻止了我 bulma it stopped me out
和良好的 and well
还好我被阻止了，因为那是场灾难 good thing I got stopped out because it was a disaster
但这就是我如何应用它的方法 but but again that's how you know I would apply this
让我给你一些 let me give you some
我不知道你是否有什么评论 I don't know if you have any comments
马克，因为这就是你说的 mark cause that was what you were talking about
是的，我记得这是一只红知更鸟 yeah I remember this is a red robin
我也做了技术性交易 I traded that as well technical
现在让我给你们举几个例子 so now let me give you let me give you a few
一些指导方针 few guidelines here
一次又一次 and again
马克，如果你有什么要补充的，一定要说出来 mark if you have anything to add certainly chime in
当你循序渐进的时候，尽量不要有偏好 try not to have favorites when you're progressively
进入的名字 moving into names
你知道我 you know I
经常说我不选股票，让股票选我 often say I don't pick stocks that let stocks pick me
我只是列出我的清单 I just make my list
还有那些最先爆发的 and the ones that break out first
我一般会买那些 I'm generally buying the ones that
正在第一 are moving first
获得第一步或优势 getting that first move or advantage
所以买一个突破单，然后 so buy an order of breakout right and then
如果这种想法正在形成 if this thoughts are setting up
它们还在不断出现你可以加上一些名字 and they're continuing to emerge you can add some names
只要最初的购买行为正常 as long as those initial buys are acting normal
你知道 you know
它甚至不需要在你有大利润的地方 it doesn't even have to be where you have big profits
如果你的姿势正常的话 if your positions are acting normal
什么事都没发生，而你 and there's nothing wrong happening and you
也许你有两个位置，你 maybe you've taken two positions and you're
你知道你投资了20%而现在 you know you're 20% invested and now
你知道还有一些其他的安排 you know a few other setups come
好吧，也许你可以再拿几张 okay maybe you take a couple more
因为一切都很好 because things are acting fine
但关键是不要一直增持 but the key is not to keep adding positions if
你的交易正在阻止你 your trades are stopping you
或者股票表现不佳 or if the stock's not acting right
你买了两只股票，它们会突破 you get two stocks they break out
他们有巨大的反转蹲 they have huge reversal squat
第二天他们就把低潮的天数拿出来了 and the next day they come in take out the days low
你知道我不会就这么开始的 you know I'm not going to go and start
把我的曝光量翻倍 doubling up my exposure there
我要等一下，看看这些初始位置 I'm going to wait and see if those initial positions
能举起 can hold up
而且你也不希望交易规模保持不变 also you don't want to keep even trading the same size
如果你如果你一直被拦在外面 if you're if you're continuously getting stopped out
你不能一直交易相同的规模 you don't keep trading the same size
你的尺寸变小了 your size gets smaller
就像自动步枪一样 it's it's like an automatic
我以前打拳击，我，我，我，我练空手道 I used to box and I and I and I for karate
我还年轻的时候就开始打拳击了 and I and I box early in my youth
我们会自动地，如果有人 and um you know we would automatically if somebody
开始真的 started really
得到最好的你 getting the best of you
你立刻掩盖了 you immediately covered up
你知道你是在掩饰还是在拥抱 you know you covered up or you clinched
你有战术 you had tactics for
让你自己 getting yourself
摆脱困境 out of that trouble
不要让这变成被击倒 and not letting that turn into getting knocked out
或者被人一拳打在脸上 or getting malled with a bunch of punches in the face
这和交易是一样的 this is the same thing with trading
你知道你什么时候会 you know when you're getting
当拳头向你袭来的时候 when the punches are coming at you
你不能就这么进去，然后 you don't just go in there and just
开始一决高下吧 start slugging it out
你把衣服遮起来，把尺寸缩小 you cover up you bring the size down and
然后你自己回去 and you work your way back
马克 mark
这对你来说是很自然的 this is something that's literally automatic for you
没错，我想说我是这么认为的 right sure and I was gonna say I think that
在和陌生人交谈时 in talking to new people
排名第四和第七 it's No.4 and No.7 on this list
他们做得不够快 they don't do it fast enough
尤其是7号 especially No.7
所以就你的观点 so to your point
你知道的，人们会在脸上抹上五个干草 you know guys will take five haymakers in the face
在它们开始缩小体型之前 before they start shrinking their size
你知道我 and you know I take
我拿一两个 I take one or two
我有一个很好的例子 I have a good example would be
我已经一年多没有进行过全仓交易了 I've not traded full size and over a year
我没资格这么做 I haven't earned the right to do that
好的，就是这样 right and there you go
看，他没资格这么做 see he hasn't earned the right to do that
关于这个有几点 and there's a couple things about that
首先是纪律等待的纪律 first is the discipline the discipline of waiting
等待和让市场 waiting and letting the market
告诉你什么时候时机合适 tell you when the times or time is right
并赢得了这样做的权利 and earning the right to do that
我喜欢，我要用它 I love that I'm gonna use that
还有另外一件事 and and and the other thing too is
好吧，马克说他没有 okay so mark says he hasn't
在一年多的时间里全部交易 traded full size in over a year
但他去年涨了40% but he was up 40% last year
这并不是糟糕的一年 that's not exactly a horrible year
同样，这是不必要的 so again it's not even necessary
这不是必要的 it's not necessary
但当一切顺利的时候他涨了350% but then when things were working he was up 350%
好的，这是 okay so this is
整个想法是 the whole idea is to
这样你损失的就最少了 make it so you'll lose the least amount
当你错了 when you're wrong
当事情不顺利时 when things aren't working
你踩水 you're treading water
你等待 and you're waiting
你在等待那一刻，你可以 you're waiting for that moment where you can make
丰厚的回报需要很强的自律 big returns it takes a lot of discipline
这需要很大的耐心 and it takes a lot of patience
这需要对最终结果有很大的信任 and it takes a lot of trust in the ultimate outcome
因为 because again
你可能坐在那里 you might be sitting there and
看着头条新闻和道指上升 watching the headlines and the dows moving up
和你的朋友 and your friends
你知道吹嘘加密货币赚了多少钱 you know bragging about how much money made in crypto
所有这些 and all these
这些外部力量 these outside forces that are
这些外面的噪音会 these out this outside noise that's gonna
迫使你进行交易或打破你的纪律 pressure you to make trades or to break your discipline
但如果你遵守纪律，你 but if you keep discipline and you
让交易员告诉你该怎么做 let the trades tell you what to do
你，你使用这种策略，你会 and you you use this type of tactic you will be
在繁荣时期投入巨资 heavily invested in the good times
你会点亮拉锯机里的坏时光 you will be lighting the bad times in the whipsaw
你要么出局，要么就没多少投资了 you'll be out or you'll be very lightly invested
你永远不会有大的下降，你会 you'll never have big drawdowns and you'll
当一切顺利时，你会赚大钱 and you'll make big money when things are working
但这需要时间 but it's gonna take time
这不会在一夜之间发生 this is not gonna happen overnight
我现在就告诉你 I'm just gonna tell you right now
所以 so again
当交易成功时，你就会加大敞口 when trades are working you step your exposure up
我找到了你说的那四个 and I find as mark as you said I find four
人们很难做到吗 is hard for people to do
他们行动不迅速他们行动不迅速 and they don't do it quick they don't do it quickly
他们等啊等啊等 they're waiting and waiting and waiting
当他们这么做的时候，他们 and then by the time they do then they
开始做那个齐格动作 start to get that zig
该走的时候却走错了 where they're zagging when they should zig
该走之时就走之 and zigging when they should zig
另一种方法是使用力位移 the other thing is to use force displacement
当股票卖出时 okay when a stock is sold
你去寻找新的组合你知道我就是这么做的 you look for new setups you know that's what I did
去年所有 all last year
我所做的就是使用力位移 all I did was use force displacement
股票涨了，我把它卖了，我寻找新的交易 stock went up boom I sold it I looked for a new trade
这也是我能够获得巨额回报的原因 the reason why I was able to get a huge return
是因为有 was because there were
吨的设置 tons of setups
我想我去年看到了更多的组合 I mean I think I saw more setups last year
有趣的是 and the funny thing is like
几乎每一个都失败了，但是 almost every one of them fails but
但是如果你做短期交易 but if you short term trade them for you know
2、3、4天甚至1、2天 2 3 4 days or even a day or two
有 there was
有无数的机会去剥头皮交易 just tons and tons of opportunity to scalp trades
但是有可能 but there was probably
比我看到的还要多 more breakouts than I saw
在我人生中最美好的时光里 in some of the best years that I've ever had
所以 so again
力位移只是在一个更短的 force displacement was just being used on a shorter
时间表 timeframe
但我只是不停地翻啊翻啊翻 but I was just rolling over rolling over rolling over
你知道 you know
没有设置，没有交易 no setups no trading
如果没有设置，你就不能交易 that's it if there's no setups you can't trade
你不能进商店 you can't go into a store
那是灯亮着 that's the lights are on
门开着 the doors are open
货架上没有商品 and there's no merchandise on the shelves
你不能购物 you can't shop
你什么都买不到 you can't buy anything
所以不要市场是 so don't the market is the
商店还好吗 is the store okay
市场在上涨 and the market going up and
还有新闻媒体，一切都很热烈 and and the news media and everything glowingly
你肯定知道那是灯亮着的地方 positive you know that's the lights on and everything
你们知道科学 you know the sciences
进来吧，我们开门了 come on in we're open
但你走进商店，却没有 but you go into the store and there's no
货架上的商品 merchandise on the shelves
或者你在找什么东西 or there's something that you're looking for
你去那里是为了 you're going there looking for
一个烤面包机，还有 a toaster and there's
你知道有真空吸尘器 you know there's vacuum cleaners
你知道你不是去买吸尘器的 well you know you're not there to buy a vacuum cleaner
你是来买烤面包机的 you're there to buy a toaster
所以你必须等待 so you gotta wait
你得等到库存上架 you gotta wait until the inventory hits the shelves
你要找的产品就在那里 and the products that you're looking for are there
他们丰富的 and they're plentiful
而且价格也很合理 and the price is right
那是你购物的时候 that's when you shop
这是要永远记住的关键 and that's the key to always remember
所以坐在权力之外，你知道，坐在你的手 so sit out power you know sitting on your hands as long
他会说你要多久 he will say how long well how long do you
你在外面坐多久 how long do you sit out
要多久就多久 as long as it takes
如果需要一年，我就坐一年 if it takes a year I sit out for a year
如果要等十年，我也要等十年 if it takes 10 years I'm gonna sit out for 10 years
现在是奥古斯特·泰勒我不会赔钱的 it was aug taylor right now I'm not gonna lose money
只是为了交易 just to be trading
不管它是什么，但我从来没有袖手旁观过 if it whatever it is but I've never had it sit out
你知道这么长时间 you know that long
当然在我的职业生涯中，我将会有10年的时间 of course in my career and I'm gonna set out 10 years
但你们中的一些人可能会说，天哪 but some of you are probably going oh my god
但我得坐10年 but I have to sit up for 10 years
不，不，别把我的话当真 no no let's not take me literal
然后给我设置100万封邮件 and start setting me 1 million emails so
但底线是不惜一切代价 but the bottom line is whatever it takes
相信市场 trust the market
当交易不能让你恢复正常时 when trades aren't working your scale back
你的平均水平上升，而不是下降 you average up never average down
现在如果你遇到了麻烦没关系，你 now if you're having trouble okay you're
你进行这些 you're conducting these
这些行动和你使用的战术 these operations and you're applying these tactics
你还从爆发股那里买股票 and you're buying stocks from breakouts and
你遇到了麻烦，它不起作用了，你输了 you're having trouble it's not working you're losing
好吧，只能有 okay there can only be
有两件事是错的 two things a couple things that are wrong
好吧 okay
基本上有三种可能是错的 all right basically three things that could be wrong
第一，你的标准有缺陷 one your criteria is flawed
你没有好的标准，你买错了 you don't have good criteria you're not buying right
你不是，你不是 you're not you're not
通常就是这样 and that's usually what it is
通常要么是你买错了 it's usually either you're not buying right
或者你已经掌握了，你已经完善了，这需要时间 or you've got it you've perfected it which takes time
一旦你这样做了，你就知道你的标准是否正确 once you do then you know if your criteria is right
第一件事是检查标准 1st thing is check the criteria
我是否符合标准 am I following the criteria
我的交易是否有良好的风险回报 am I placing trades that are good risk reward
如果你是，而且你遵循了这些标准 if you are and you're following the criteria
那么市场必然是充满敌意的 well then the market has to be hostile
那就不是一个好的环境 then it's not a good environment
就像现在 like right now
没关系 it doesn't matter
我们买股票 we're buying stocks
我们正在做的一些交易 some of these trades that we're making
都是从很好的设置中出来的吗 are coming out of pretty good setups
但它们不起作用 but they're not working
因为市场是啤酒市场 because the market is in a beer market
这就是我们需要知道的 and that's all we need to know
第三件事是 and the third thing is
你只是不遵守自己的规则 you're just not following your own rules
你可能有很好的规则 you might actually have good rules
你有很好的标准，但你没有遵循它 and you have good criteria but you're not following it
你得到压力 you're getting pressured
做出愚蠢的决定 into making stupid decisions
你做事情都是因为“社交恐惧症” and you're doing things because of fomo
诸如此类，你就是不遵守规则 and so forth and you're just not following the rules
但一般来说 but generally
我所做的就是如果事情不顺利 what I do is if things aren't working
首先我踢轮胎 I firstly I kick the tires
我称之为“踢轮胎” I call it kicking the tires
我去检查我的标准 I go and I check my criteria
我看了看股票，说好吧 I look at the stocks and I say okay
让我客观地看待这件事 let me look at this really objectively
我真的想做这样的交易吗 is this a trade that I really want to do
我是说，如果我是，那就只能这样了 I mean if I was that only could do
一年10次交易，这就是其中之一 10 trades a year would this be one of them
如果不是，那我为什么要做这笔交易 and if not then why am I making this trade
所以我必须回答这些问题 so I really have to answer those questions
如果我能答应 and if I could say yes
这是个这是个好剧 this is a this is a good play
我的意思是，这是一个有价值的风险回报游戏 I mean this is a worthwhile risk reward play
如果它们不起作用，我就知道市场不好 if they're not working then I know the market's no good
因为我在遵守我的纪律 because I am following my discipline
我有一个很好的标准 and I have a good criteria
你所有的交易失败都源于两点 all your trading failures come from two things
错误的原则或错误的纪律时期 faulty principles or faulty discipline period
这就是你要检查的 that's what you have to check
检查你的原则 check your principles
检查你的纪律 check your discipline
如果你有原则，你有纪律 if you've got the principles and you got the discipline
你应该你会做得很好 you should be you're going to do great
说a和b很容易 it's easy to say that a and b
要花很长时间才能到你 takes a long time to get to where you
所有的原则都理解了吗 have all the principles down really well
你有纪律 and you've got the discipline
你一直在执行它 and you're executing it consistently
这需要一段时间 it takes a while to get there
一旦你到了那里，好消息就来了 here's the good news once you get there
没人能把它从你身边拿走 nobody can take it away from you
一旦你掌握了那种技能一旦你掌握了那种知识 once you get that skill once you get that knowledge
没有人能把它拿走 no one can take it away from
它将永远属于你 it's yours for life
你可以把它传授给别人 and you can pass it on and teach it to others
就像我们现在做的一样 just as we're doing now
我不知道还有没有幻灯片了 I don't know if I don't think I have any more slides
不，我没有幻灯片了 no I don't have any more slides
让我看看，我想我们可以带 let me see I think we could take
你可能有一些问题 you probably have some questions here
让我回答几个问题 let me take a few questions
我没打算这么做，但我们还有一点时间 I wasn't going to but we've got a little bit more time
马克，我想你还有10分钟左右的时间 mark I think you have another 10min or so right
是的，我有10分钟 yep I have 10min
让我们看看 let's see
所以我认为这是一个给你们的问题 so this is actually I think it's a question for you
当你在评估你的投资组合时 when you were sizing your portfolio
你看到了多少美元的流动性 and what dollar amount did you start seeing liquidity
问题和问题 problems and issues
还有，你用过短线交易吗 also did you ever use short term trading
或者更多的波动交易 or more swing trading
马克，你确实做过交易 mark you do swing trade but yeah
所以我将从短期的部分开始 so I'll start with the short term part
所以当你说短期，你就得 so when you say short term you're gonna have to
每个人的短期都不一样 you know short terms different for everybody
所以在短期交易中 so in a short term trading
马克去年的交易方式 the way mark was trading last year
我从来没有做过这么短的交易 I really never traded quite that short term
但对我来说，我是 but for me I was
一开始我连大招都不看好，所以 early on I was never holding even for bigger moves so
我的意思是 and what I mean by that is
如果它比我的平均收益多 if it was say more than my average gain
我通常不会握着它 I usually didn't hold it
我只是在转动它，然后把它烧了 I was just kind of turning it and burning it
至于尺寸 as far as the sizing
这是相对于你们知道的设置的 that's relative to the setup you know
在那里 there
有些交易者甚至对他们来说都是很好的交易吗 were some trades guys that are great trades even for
你知道你可能只有10万美元 you know you might have only a couple $100,000
如果这是一个蔓延的名字 and if it's a spready name
你不会想要把仓位大小设定在2025% you don't want to put a 2025% position size on
这是非常个人化的 it's just you know that's very individual
贸易的具体 trade specific
如果你是新来的，你会 and if you're new you'll
你很快就会掌握窍门的 you'll get the hang of that pretty quickly
因为你会看到 because you'll see
demarc的观点 an demarc's point earlier
我认为倾听是一个很好的原则 I think it's a great rule to say listen
每日平均量的10%应为上限 10% of average daily volume should be the max
但你会找到一些股票 but you'll find some stocks
甚至你知道 or even you know
你看着它，你会想 you'll look at it and you'll go
现在交易有点紧张，也许我可以 while this trade's a little tighter maybe I can
保持一个合适的尺寸，其他的你做不到 get on a decent size and others you can't
所以你知道 so you know
股票在这方面有点个性 stocks sort of have a personality in that regard
但一般来说 but as a general rule
如果我想买，我会说看 you know I would say look if I want to buy
5万股或更多，它需要有漂亮 50,000 shares or something it needs to have pretty
否则就会有大量的流动性 pretty meaty liquidity in there otherwise
你知道 you know
日均交易量是多少并不重要 it doesn't matter what the average daily volume is
另一个问题是 and another question was
你什么时候开始看到流动性问题的 when did you start seeing liquidity problems
就像美元水平一样 it's like a dollar level
是一百万美元还是一千万美元 was that it a million dollars ten million dollars
我记得我问你这个标记可能像 well I remember asking you this mark probably like
你知道，是的，你知道 you know yes you did
八年前 eight years ago
你说，看 and you said look
每翻一倍，难度就越大 every time you double it it gets harder
这就是你的回答 you know that was sort of your answer
每次你翻倍，它就会计数 every time you double it count
你会看到它变得有点 you'll see it gets a little
一个小技巧 a little trickier
所以我想说，一般来说，你知道 so you know I would say as a general rule you know
你可以交易 you can trade
不管穿什么都很舒服 pretty comfortably in and out of most stuff
直到你赚到几百万 until you're at multi millions
是的，是的，我是说甚至 yeah yeah I mean even
我认为即使你 I think even if you're
你知道你交易一千万，两千万 you know you trade ten million twenty million
它仍然相对容易完成 it's still relatively easy to complete
任何职业经理人都要投入大笔资金 any professional manager that has to put big money
这里没有流动的人，所以我不能 you don't really have a liquid people so I can't
你知道我不能相信它是它是 you know I can't buy that it's it's
它只交易30万股 it's only trades 300,000 shares
我的意思是，你在交换什么，我是说 I'm like what are you trading a mutual fun I mean
与此同时，他们购买了500股 and then meanwhile they're buying 500 shares you know
你不会有流动性问题 you're not gonna have a liquidity problem
直到你买 until you're buying
如果你买的股票超过 I look at it shares if you're buying more than
你开始大量购买5万股股票 you know you start buying lots of 50,000 shares
我一般交易五万股左右 I generally trade up to about 50,000 shares
这是我的 that sort of my
那部分，那部分 the part the the the the
我猜帽子在 I guess the cap at
开始让我感到不舒服的地方 where it starts to get uncomfortable for me
如果我交易5年或1万年，这有点 if I trade five or 10,000 years that's sort of
好,正常 fine and normal
五万年后，我开始进入一个更大的 50,000 years I start getting into a bigger you know
大位置好位置 bigger position good sites position
我得到4050000年这是一个很大的位置 and I get to 4,050,000 years that's a big position
这是大量的流动性 that's a that's a lot of liquidity and
我对它的看法甚至比 and I look at it that way even more than
美元的体积 the dollar volume
让我们看看 let's see
所以当我进行交易时，我使用6.25%作为试点买入 so when I size my trades I use 6.25% as pilot buys
半价12.5元，满价25元 twelve point five for half and twenty five for full
这是正确的 is this correct
我的意思是只有你能回答这个问题 well only you can answer that I mean
这取决于你知道的 that all depends on you know
如果你想拥有10只股票的投资组合 if you want to have a 10 stock portfolio
你知道你的正常尺寸是10% you know your full size would be 10%
如果你有四种股票的投资组合 if you're gonna have a four stock portfolio
您的全尺寸是25% your full size would be 25%
这是你的选择 so that's your choice
但一旦你确定了完整的尺寸 but once you establish that full size
当然，四分之一和二分之一 then quarters and halfs are just of course
四分之一到一半的尺寸 quarters and halfs of that full size
但你必须建立什么 but you have to establish what
你的舒适是你的最大限度 your comfort is for your maximum
让我们看看浓度 concentration let's see
让我们看看好了 let's see okay
你对增加持仓规模有什么看法 what do you think about increasing your position size
当你找到一个非常低的入口 when you find a really low entry
接近危险点 near to the danger point
例如，你的平均损失约为6% for example your average loss is around 6%
进入点是2%的剩余 and the entry point is 2% rest
你认为是关于 do you think it's about
增加到平均水平的三倍 to increase until three x time your average
位置大小 position size
马克 mark
如果事情进展顺利，我就会这么想 if things are working that's how I would think about it
当然 certainly
如果你知道你的时机或者你的入场时间很紧 if you know your timing or your entry is really tight
这就是有时 that's where sometimes
到火星点之前做一头猪 to mars point about being a pig earlier
但它不会只是一个独立的基础 but it wouldn't just be on a standalone basis
我不只是看得好，这看起来很紧，我要 I don't just see well this looks tight I'll take
更大的尺寸 a much bigger size
这就是流动性 it's going to be that liquidity
还有事情的进展 and how things are going
是的，我现在就可以告诉你 yeah and I could tell you right now
这就是我们的运作方式 that's exactly how we operate
我的意思是止损越紧，流动性越好 I mean the tighter the stop the better the liquidity
我对它的风险就越确信 the more sure I am about the risk of it
或者我越能降低风险 or the more I can mitigate the risk
我就越有攻击性 the more aggressive I am
当然，你甚至知道 absolutely you know even
我甚至打算接受它 I'm even going to take it
讲到我将要讲到的地方 to the point where I'm going to
看看这张图 look at the spread
所以现在我停止了2% so now I got that 2% stop
而且蛋糕的铺得也非常紧 and the spread is super tight too
我换了个年货轮胎，差一分钱 I'm trading a good year tire and it's a penny spread
是的，我要变得超级好斗，而不是 yeah I'm going to get super aggressive as opposed to
我在交易另一只有2%止损率的股票 I'm trading another stock that has a 2% stop
但它有1.5%的息差 but it's got a 1.5% spread
现在我进去了 so now I go in
我可能会 I'm gonna get probably
我可能会在两秒内被拦下 I'm gonna get probably stopped in 2 seconds
你只从这一页就知道了 you know just from the spread
所以你要看看价差 so you have to look at the spread
当你用那些很紧的停顿 when you go with those really tight stops
你得看看它的分布 you gotta look at the spread
因为传播 because the spread
你可能有2%的止损和3%的息差 you might have a 2% stop and spreads 3%
现在轮到出价了，你出局了 now it hits the bid and you're out
所以你要注意这一点 so just keep you know keep an eye on that
让我们看看 let's see
好吧 okay
在这样的时期，我倾向于持有现金 during a period like this I tend to stay in cash
但如果我开了一笔交易 but if I open a trade
我想要最紧的一站 I would like to have the tightest stop
损失和风险 losses and the risk
2比1返回游侠 return ranger around two to one
你认为这是一种正确的态度吗 do you find it to be a correct attitude
训练得好像他们有最严格的停止加号 training like they have a tightest stop pluses
噢,是的 oh yeah
这就是我一直以来的态度，没错，马克 I mean that's my attitude all the time right mark
我是说我们总是 I mean we're always
我们一直在关注 we're always looking at
我们站在现金 we're standing cash
我们尽量让它保持紧凑 and we're trying to keep it as tight as possible
在任何时候 at all times
我们只 we only
我只开放我的游戏，马克也只开放他的游戏 I only open up my game and mark only opens up his game
你知道什么时候事情做得很好 you know when things are doing really well
让我们看看 let's see
你现在是在这样的环境下做这件事吗 are you doing this now in this environment seems like
风险很大 a lot of risk
如果你连续10个位置出局 if you get stopped out on 10 positions in a row
1.25%的风险导致现在有一笔很大的欠款 1.25% risk result in a significant drawed on right now
即使5%的位置 even 5% positions
尺寸不太好用 sizes are not working well
是的，这个位置不知道它的大小 yeah so well the position doesn't know what size it is
你知道 you know
工作与否与你的职位无关 it working or not has nothing to do with your position
所以尺寸 size so
这就是为什么 that's why
这就是为什么只交易对你很重要 that's why it's so important for you to only trade
大的时候 large when
交易工作 trades are working
我的意思是我不知道 so I mean I don't know
我想我们已经回答了这个问题 you know I think we just pretty much answer that
你可能比我们先放进去的 you might have put this in prior to us even
对，你4点放进去，等着 yeah you put this in at four await
我们把这些都讲了一遍 so we went through all that
我认为当你说到仓位大小 I think when you're talking position size
这是基于你的交易账户 this is based on your trading account
不是你的总流动净值，对吧 not your total liquid net worth correct
这是正确的 that's correct
它是基于 it's based on the
就你的账户大小而言 on the account on your account size
如果你有100万美元，就是基于这个 if you had $1 million it would be based on that
100万美元 $1 million
如果你拥有1000万美元的净资产，这重要吗 does it matter if you have a $10 million net worth
让我们看看 let's see
好吧 okay
所以你在寻找最佳的25%的位置 so are you shoot for optimal 25% position
所以你是说shoot for so are you saying shoot for
当完全投资时，总共有四个头寸 total of four positions when fully invested
是这样吗 is that right
我感觉像比尔·奥尼尔 I feel like bill o'neill
又在说八分了 talks about shooting for eight again
这是完全 this is completely
我知道你们想 I know you guys want
阿姨想让我给你答案 aunt want me to give you the answers
我不能决定你对风险的承受能力 I can't decide what your tolerance is for risk
好吧，你知道有些人是 okay you know some people are
他们可以承受巨大的风险 they're okay with massive amounts of risk
他们喜欢冒很大的风险 and they love taking the big risk
有些人甚至会 there's other people that would even
想想承担这种风险 think of taking the type of risk
也许我可以 that say maybe I take
所以你必须做出决定 so you've got to make that determination
我给你的 what I'm giving you
指导方针是否在该框架内运行 is the guidelines to operate within that framework
如果你已经坐满了位置 so if you're full position
如果你决定x是最多的 if you decide that x amount is the most
你可以处理 that you can handle
明智的持仓规模和风险 position size wise and risk wise
隔夜风险 overnight risk
那你的职位就满了 well then that would be your full position
一切都是基于此 and everything would be based around that
然后回到1.25% and you back into the 1.25%
你的硬币，硬币和超重物 your halfs and quarters and overweights would be
根据这个数字 based from that number
让我们看看 let's see
再来一个，然后我就用力跳 one more and then I'm gonna jump hard
是的，我知道我们要 yeah I see we're gonna
我们要结束了 we're gonna wrap it up to
我知道这里有很多问题 I know we got a lot of questions coming in here
但我只能回答几个问题 but I can only answer a couple
你有什么建议? what do you advise
用于在交易时调整仓位 for position sizing when trading with
五个不同的账户 five different accounts
哦,男孩 oh boy
我这辈子从没用五个账户交易过 I've never traded with five accounts in my entire life
我无法想象同时管理五个客户的情景 I can't imagine trying to manage five accounts
把我脑袋里最后的八根头发拔出来 pull the last eight hairs that I have in my head out
我在努力维持这些 and I'm trying to maintain those
而现在已经这样去理发了 and now get a haircut already so
我的头发早就没了 I wouldn't have no hairs left already
这样我就没钱抽了 so I wouldn't have any to pull out
我有一根头发 I get a hair
我妻子整天缠着我的头发 my wife was caught in my hair though the day
我说过很快你就可以用镊子拔了 and I said pretty soon you just use a tweezer just pull
好吧，所以不能 all right so not able to
把它们合并起来是什么 what is this amalgamate them
分别为每个帐户运行头寸大小 run position sizing for each account separately
或者在全球范围内调整头寸规模 or do position sizing globally
我的意思是你可能需要一些软件来处理所有这些 I mean you may need some software to handle all that
我不知道 I don't know
你知道我经营过一个客户 you know I managed you know one account you know
我是说，我做过的最多的一次，你知道的 I mean I had the most I've ever done is like you know
可能是两个账户 maybe a two accounts
他们有我女儿的账户，我有 they have account for my daughter that I do
对它来说是更长期的东西 a little bit longer term stuff for it
但我真的把所有的钱都存到一个账户里了 but I really put everything into just one account
我不是那种人 one style I'm not one of those people
就像所有不同的帐户不同的风格 like all different accounts different styles
如果你知道原因的话 to me if you know why
我有一个很棒的风格，做得很好 I have a great style that does wonderful
你知道为什么不把我所有的鸡蛋都放在那个篮子里 you know why not put all my eggs in that basket
所以我不知道你会怎么做，让我们看看 so I don't know exactly how you would do that let's see
正确的 right
你担心会提高成本吗 do you worry about driving up your cost bases
还是你请 or do you treat a
单独交易和一只股票 separate trades and one stock
这是个很好的问号 that's a great question mark
提高你的成本基础怎么样 what about driving up your cost basis
它会让你到这里 and it'll let you go here
你可以通过更高层次的添加和添加来知道 you know by adding and adding at a higher level
我只会在更高的层次上添加 well I would only add at a higher level
你知道每一笔交易都必须有自己的权利 you know each trade has to stand on its own right
这是原则之一 that's one of the principles
你知道 you know
我听到你一直想用锤子敲 I hear you trying to hammer all the time
所以一般来说，如果它是独立的 so generally speaking if it's standing on its own it's
设置正在改进 the setup is improving
所以我在增加成本 so yeah I'm running up the cost basis
但通常 but normally
我没有戏剧性地做，因为它可能 I'm not doing it dramatically because it's probably
假设你得到了低作弊，然后作弊开始了 say you get the low cheat and then the cheat sets up
这通常是成立的 well that usually sets up
二，三，4% two three four percent higher
如果设置得很高呢 where if it's setting up way higher
我可能 I'm probably
从最初的交易中取出，然后再放回去 trading out of the initial and then putting it back on
这更像是减少和增加 it's more of a reduce and add back
这正是我想说的 that's exactly what I was gonna say
是的，我就是这么想的 yeah right that's how I think about it anyway yeah
就像马克说的 and again as mark said
你知道 you know
如果它让我们说低作弊，然后它跑起来 if it lets us say the low cheat and then it runs up
你知道它涨了15% you know it's up 15%
你知道我们可能 you know we're probably
卖掉一些，卖得那么快 dumping some of it and selling that quick
快速获利 taking that quick profit
和缓冲 and cushioning it
然后再加半个位置 and then maybe adding back a half a position
如果把它切成两半 if we cut it in half
或者就算我们把所有东西都卖了再买回来 or even if we sold the whole thing buying it back
但问题是 but the thing is
当你在基地内购买的时候 when you're buying within the base
只要它还在运转 as long as it's setting up
我会像马克说的那样 I would look as mark said
下一个设置 that next setup
如果你没有买第一套 if you didn't buy the first setup
你将购买的第二套设备 the 2nd setup you would be buying
它是独立的 it stands on its own
所有这些安排都是圣经 so every one of those setups is bible
所以我不担心我的 so I'm not worried about increasing my
平均成本，只要我是在基础内购买 average cost as long as I'm buying within the base
我正在努力这么做 I'm actually trying to do that
我想扩大仓位 I'm trying to get a bigger position size on
但很明显 but obviously
默认情况下，如果我在定位 by default if I'm positioning
如果我在更高的水平买入 if I'm buying at a higher level
我的平均成本就会自动增加 I'm automatically going to increase my average cost
不过没关系 but that's fine
因为我在增加成功的概率 because I'm increasing the probability of it working
还有右边的部分 too as it's building out that right side
这是改善 and it's improving
你知道的 so forth and again you know
你甚至可以反过来做 you can even do it in reverse
如果你想 if you want to
再小心一点 be a little bit more careful
关于增加你的平均成本 about running up your average cost
你可以从更大的仓位开始 you can you can start with a larger position
有一种金字塔法 there's a pyramid method
从一个更大的位置开始 where I start with a larger position
添加一个 adds a
多一点，少一点，然后再回去 more and then add less and then go back
所以我马上配对 so I pair a minute
或者你可以倒着走 or you can go reverse where you go
大的小的小 large smaller smaller
所以如果你选择也许 so if you were to take maybe
在载重表上有半个位置 a half a position at the load sheet
骗球时的四分之一位置，和 quarter position at the cheat and a quarter at the
在处理 at the handle
现在你会 now you would
你会逐渐减少添加量 you would progressively add less
所以每个突变有一百万个 so there's a million per mutate
可能不是一百万 probably not a million
但肯定有很多排列 but certainly a lot of permutations
你可以用这个来做 that you can do with this
你知道这是一种风格 and and you know it's stylistic
这完全取决于你的目标和你的手腕承受能力 it all depends on your goals and your wrist tolerance
但只要你遵守这些准则 but again as long as you stay within these guidelines
你知道一切都会水到渠成的 you know everything's gonna come out in the wash
你不可能每次都做得完美 you're not gonna get it perfect every time
但只要你遵守这些准则 but as long as you stay with these guidelines
当事情进展顺利的时候，你就会提高杠杆率 you're gonna be levering up when things are working
当事情不顺利的时候缩减开支 scaling back when things are not working
获得最佳的仓位大小 and getting those optimal position sizes
你知道你会做得很好 you know you're gonna do well
让我看看，我跑了，伙计们，不过 let's see I got a run guys that was happening although
好吧，马克，回头再聊 okay mark I'll talk to you later
我再问几个问题 I'm gonna finish up a couple more questions
然后我们就结束 and then we'll wrap it up
谢谢你马克 thank you mark
不我把 shouldn't I regard
那些 those
机会杠杆作为个人立场 opportunities to leverage up as individual positions
是的，同样的问题，同样的答案 yeah same question same answer
对一只股票的逐步敞口 on progressive exposure on one stock
你的止损是什么 is your stop loss let's say
平均成本为4% 4% based on the average cost
你买的两三个 of your two or three buys
或者作为初始买入价格的4%止损 or as the 4% stop based on the initial purchase price
所以我还是把它们看成是独立的 so again I'm thinking of them each as separate
但我也可以把这些加起来 but I also you know may aggregate that
如果我说好的，我现在买一半 if I'm saying okay I'm buying a half position now
我补充到这个位置 I add to that position
如果我认为它是一个位置，那么我仍然 well if I think of it as one position then I still
停止点必须是 the stop is going to have to be
在这些参数 within those parameters
而且它必须还在里面 and it's going to have to still be within
风险总额中的风险总额 the amount of total risk of total
风险占总股本的百分比 a percentage risk of total equity
所以不管怎样 so either way
是分开做还是一起做 whether you do them separately or together
他们仍然需要 they still have to
计算一下 come within that math
你想怎么想就怎么想 so you can think about however you want
我的意思是这取决于你怎么 I mean that's that's up to you how you
如果你愿意，你可以解释一下 you you account for it if you will
你有过少于5%的初始飞行员位置吗 do you ever take an initial pilot position less than 5%
是的我做到了 yes I do
有时候我买微仓只是为了 sometimes I buy micro positions just to sort of
把我的手指放在杆子上 put my finger on the poles you know
有时我甚至不考虑百分比 and sometimes I don't even think of in percentage terms
我只买了100股 I just buy 100 shares
或者500或1000股股票 or 500 shares or 1000 shares of the stock
和我在 and I'm in
你知道我在一个很小的位置，只是默认的 you know I'm in a very small position just by default
我总是在考虑我的风险 I'm always looking at my risk to my stop
这才是真正的 that's the real
这是我关注的主要问题 that's the main thing that I'm looking at
我在考虑我的风险 I'm looking at my risk to my stop
我做这笔交易冒了多大的风险 what dollars am I risking I go into this trade even
的位置大小 the position sizing
仅仅是流动性的问题吗 is only an issue for liquidity
担心拥有 and worrying about having
市场对我亏空了 the market gaps down on me
但我可以接受今天的巨大仓位 but I'm okay with taking a gigantic position in today
这是车站和我买的地方 it's the stop versus where I bought it
我现在要冒多大的风险 how much risk am I taking now if I take
你知道四种姿势 you know four positions with
你知道的，它价值一千万美元的股票和我的 you know and it's $10 million worth the stock and my
我的停车费是8%你知道的 my stop is 8% on each of them well you know
这是一个大 that's a big
这对我来说是巨大的损失 that's a big dollar loss for me that I have at risk
所以我必须证明这一点 so I'd have to justify that
但我看着你，你知道停车的风险 but I'm looking at you know the risk to the stop
这是我的主要 that's my main
你知道我最担心的 you know my main concern
止损是基于价格的 stop loss is based on the by price
是的，这是按价格计算的 yes it's based on the by price
你认为什么时候交易是有效的 when do you consider it trades are working
很好的问题 great question
这是个很常见的问题 that's very popular question
人们总是在想 people are always wondering
当构成交易的东西起作用时 when what constitutes trades are working
好了 well again
有些人可能比其他人更有攻击性 somebody might be a little more aggressive than others
你知道这有点像将军 you know it's like sort of like general
我通常会用gaap来做这个比较 I usually make this comparison of gaap right
通用会计准则 general accepted accounting principles
你知道一些 you know some
会计核算时使用更激进的策略 use more aggressive tactics when accounting
有些人则保守得多 and some are much more conservative
你也一样，你可能会说 well same thing with you you might say well
我有几个空仓，每个都涨了8% I have a couple open positions that are up 8% each okay
而你甚至都没有记录 and you haven't even logged any
目前为止，任何利润都能把它们固定下来 any profits yet as far as actually nailed them down so
但光是这一点你可能就会变得咄咄逼人 but you might get aggressive just on that alone
其他人可能会说，你知道吗 where someone else might say you know what
我要等我把 I'm gonna wait until I put
银行存款的10% 10% in the bank
你知道 you know
当我确定了一些位置，我已经 when I nailed down some positions and I've got
我的50万美元账户现在是550，我还有5万 my $500,000 account is now 550 and I got 50,000 to
为未来的风险融资 you know to finance risk going forward
真的是这样 it really is that
这取决于你个人的风险承受能力 it come down to your own personal risk tolerance
还有你自己的 and your own personal
你知道 you know
目标让我们看看 goals let's see
你的垫子下一次大师训练是什么时候 when is your mat next master training session
我们还没有确定那个日期 we haven't come up with that date
但我们将在4月份开放注册 but we're going to open registration in April
四月初，也就是下个月 right in the beginning of April which is next month
我们会有个约会 and we will have a date
但很可能会是这样 but it most likely will be
我想是十月或十一月吧 I believe in October or November
10月11月是的 October November yes
让我们看看目前市场适合的尺寸是多少 let's see what is the right size for current market for
飞行员的 pilot by
这也是你的选择 again it's really your choice
但我想说，不管你的最大尺寸是什么 but I would say whatever your maximum size is
你知道的可能只有四分之一 you know probably a quarter of that
你知道，然后你工作到半满 you know then you work to a half and a full
你变得更有攻击性了吗 did you become more aggressive
在你随后的石油股票仓位中 in your subsequent position sizing in oil stocks
当它变得明显的举动 when it became apparent that the move
开始 was started on
1月3日是真的 January 3rd was genuine
我都不记得我当时有多激进了 I I can't remember if how much more aggressive I got
我和格雷琴的水平差不多 I've been pretty much the same level of gretchen really
我希望我能更有攻击性 I wish I had gotten more aggressive
我买了更多的石油股票 and I bought more oil stocks
但是我一直 but I've been
相当保守 actually pretty conservative
而我却很少参与其中 and I haven't participated nearly as much
就像我希望在石油名称中那样 as I would have liked to in the oil names
当然还有把它弄得如此完美 and of course in getting it so right
我对加大号的时机把握得真准 I really got timing perfect on the xl
还有一些石油的名字 and some of these oil names
但我还没有充分利用它 but I have not taken advantage of it to the level
我本该有的 that I should have
但我去年过得很好 but I had a great year last year
我一直想休息一下 I've been wanting to have some rest
说实在的 to be honest with the oven
只是尽量少交易，不做太多工作 just trying to trade it less and not do so much work
有一段时间 for a little bit
让我们看看 let's see
你如何权衡市场和优秀的股票设置 how do you weigh between market and great stock setup
尽管市场不好，你会接受吗 would you take it despite the market is not good
这是个好问题 okay that's a great question
好吧，你能做一个很棒的设置吗 okay would you take a great setup
即使市场不好 even though the market's not good
以下是我的看法 here's how I look at that
我想要一些 I would take a few
你知道我可能会喝几杯 you know I might take a few
我可以用更小的尺寸 sets where I would take a much smaller size
我们就这么说吧 but let's just say
在这个糟糕的市场上 in this crappy market right now
尽管我们甚至没有全天的跟踪 even though we don't even have a follow through day
好吧，用手机冒险 okay risk miles on a cell
但有一大堆股票在筹备 but there's a whole bunch of stocks setting up
他们开始工作了 and they're starting to work and
股市也在突破 and stocks are breaking out
他们在工作，他们正在起飞 and they're working and they're taking off
更多的股票正在成立 and more stocks are setting up
我打算买股票 I'm going with the stocks
我要买些股票 I'm gonna buy some stocks
我要全部投资吗 am I gonna go full invested
可能不会，但我可能会你知道我可能会 probably not but I'll probably you know I'll probably
尝试一些，如果这些是有效的，我会添加 try some and if those are working I will I will add
我一定会添加，并努力取得领先 I will definitely add and try to get ahead
不管指数是什么 of you know whatever the index is
看到索引 see the indexes
我甚至都没有我在看他们 I'm not really even I'm looking at them
但我真正衡量我交易的依据是 but what I'm really gauging my trading on is
只看股票 purely on the stocks
95%的股票 like 95% on the stocks
如果股票管用，我就会更积极 if the stocks are working I'm getting more aggressive
如果他们不 if they're not
我阻碍 I'm holding back
不管索引做什么，不管它们做什么 no matter what the indexes do no matter what they do
我总是默认为股票，我看看 I'm always gonna default to the stocks let's see
当你进入飞行员的位置，就像现在 when you're entering pilot positions like now
可能是从底部开始的 potentially coming off the bottom
你一般会吃一些吗 are you typically taking some
越狱那天就没了 off the day of the breakout
以抵消风险，直到你看到一些父亲购买 to offset risk until you see some father buying
很好的问题 great question
是的 yes
如果有一个大仓位，而且是一个相当大的变动 if there's a big position and it's a decent size move
当然，如果它真的很难，我可能会头皮 absolutely if it's really tough yeah I might scalp
你知道我可能会被炒鱿鱼 you know I might scalp the heck out of the market
尽我所能去创造 and just try to make whatever I can
很多时候，我要做的就是剥开市场的皮 a lot of times what I'll do is I'll scalp the market
只是为了承担更大的风险 simply to finance bigger risk
所以我可能 so I might even
你知道我要进去，我要试着 you know I'll go in there and I'll just try to
芯片, chip away and
能拿什么就拿什么 and take whatever I can
然后建立一个小垫子 to then build up a little cushion
就当是5000美元吧 and you know that's just call it 5000 bucks
我从市场上拿走5000美元 I chip away and I take $5000 out of the market
你知道短线交易 you know short term trading
现在我可能要换一个大点的位置 now I might go into a larger position
十万美元的仓位，5%止损 maybe $100,000 position with a 5% stop
现在是5000美元 and that 5000 now
在10万美元的位置止损5% stops me on $100,000 position that has a 5% stop
也许我可以把它放在更大的位置 and I can maybe hold that you know for a bigger move
做一个摇摆交易 play for a swing trade
我一直在努力改善最坏的情况 I'm constantly trying to improve my worst case scenario
并不断地为我的冒险提供资金 and constantly trying to finance my risk
这就是我的全部关键，为我的风险融资 that is my whole key is to finance my risk
让我自己处于工作状态 and get myself in a position where things are working
然后变得更有攻击性 and then get real aggressive
我每天唯一的目标 the only goal that I have each day
是损失尽可能少的钱吗 is to lose the least amount of money as possible
把我的钱押在上面 and to put my money on
ace王皇后 aces kings queens
这是一手好牌 the setups the good hands
当我拿到牌的时候 when I get dealt the hand
我想确定我把牌押上了 I want to make sure I bet the hand
直到它起作用 and until it's working
我想尽量减少损失 I want to try to lose the least amount possible
在那些手 on those hands
不要相信那些人 and not trust any of those hands
但仍然对他们下注，但不盲目相信他们 but still bet on them but not trust them blindly
只是想确保我有保障 just try to make sure that I'm covered
我在降低我的风险 and I'm mitigating my risk
直到一切顺利，我得到一个缓冲 until things are going well and I get myself a cushion
我一直都是这么想的 that's sort of my thinking at all times
这就是不对称杠杆 and it's just simply asymmetric leverage
我想 I'm trying to
创建非对称杠杆 create asymmetric leverage
我的风险远远小于我的回报 where my risk is a lot less than my reward
然后我开始 and then I start really
当事情进展顺利时，就朝着那个方向努力 pushing hard in that direction when things are working
我得走了 I gotta go now
我知道还有很多 I know there's a bunch more
不是很多，但还有一些问题 not a whole lot but there's a handful of more questions
我希望我能多吃点，但我得走了 I wish I could take more but I gotta run now
我希望这对你有所帮助 I hope this has been helpful
我试着在这里尽可能多地谈论一些事情 I tried to talk about as many things as I can here
我们没有把它复杂化太多 we're not over complicating it too much
我们也许可以进入 we can maybe get into
更多关于头寸管理的细节 some more details of position management
围绕这一点有一些职位管理技巧 some position management techniques around this
但我认为这是 but I think this is
你知道这里有很多 you know there's quite a bit here
这占了整个博弈的98% and this really is like 98% of the whole game here
头寸规模和渐进式敞口 and position sizing and progressive exposure
你知道这真的 you know this is really
这是关于风险管理的 the whole thing here about managing risk
你应该再看一遍 and you probably should watch this again
多看几次本教程 and watch this tutorial a couple times
做些笔记，然后你就知道了 take some notes and then really you know
开始尝试在你的交易中运用这些 start trying to apply this in your trading
好吧，我晚点再跟你们聊 alright I'll talk to you guys later
监控平台 monitor the platform
市场看起来像垃圾 market looks like crap
希望一切会好起来，但是 let's hope that it gets better but
坐着别动，直到 sit on your hands until
我们看到一些更好的 we see some better
行动来自个股 action coming from individual stocks
再见，伙计们，再见 see you guys later bye bye