大家好，感谢大家参加我在奥兰多举办的实盘交易研讨会 Hi everyone I want to thank you for coming to my live trading workshop in Orlando
今天是2024年6月1日 Today is June 1st 2024
我是Al Brooks，希望本次内容对你有所帮助 I'm Al Brooks and I hope that you find this helpful
今天我有很多内容要讲 I have a lot to cover today
我想先从最重要的话题开始，那就是赚钱 I want to begin by the most important subject and that is making money
然后我会谈谈本次研讨会的目标 I'll then talk about the goals of the workshop
你应该交易的时间框架以及一些基础的入场形态 the time frames that you should be trading some basic patterns
我想谈谈波段交易和剥头皮交易 I want to talk about swing trading and scalping
我想讨论一天中不同的时间段 I want to discuss the different times of the day
然后我会讲买入和卖出的入场形态 and then I'll move on to buy and sell setups
首先，对我们所有人来说最重要的主题就是在股票市场赚钱 First the most important subject to all of us and that's making money in the stock market
或者期货市场 or the futures market
这是我在整个PPT中使用的缩写 Here are abbreviations that I used throughout this PowerPoint
这是道琼斯工业平均指数的年线图，每根Bar代表一年 This is a yearly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and each bar is one year
我想区分两个概念 I want to distinguish between the two
我想区分Bear Trend和Bear Market I want to distinguish between a bear trend and a bear market
Bear Trend是一系列更低的高点和低点，或者是非常强烈的Bear Breakout A bear trend is a series of lower highs and lows or a very strong bear breakout
Bear Market仅指从近期高点下跌20%的抛售行情 And a bear market simply means that the sell off is 20% down from a recent high
在年线图上，从未出现过Bear Trend And on the yearly chart there's never been a bear trend
虽然历史上有许多Bear Market，比如1929年至1932年市场下跌了89% There have been many bear markets but even back in 1929 to 1932 when the market fell 89%
那四年里，市场实际上并不是熊市 In those four years it was really not a bear market
那是一个熊市 It was a bear market
那是熊市 It was a bear market
那是一个下跌趋势（Bear Trend） It was a bear trend
更像是在测试之前的低点 It was more a test of a prior low
所以是一次跌破前低形成的双底卖盘 So a sell off to a lower low double bottom
从那以后，市场已经持续了100年的牛市 And since then the market has been in a bull trend for 100 years
期间经历了许多熊市。熊市是指 There have been many bear markets. A bear market is
至少20%的抛售，但股市中从未出现过下跌趋势 a sell off of at least 20%, but there has never been a bear trend in the stock market
这是因为全球的生产力和人口始终在增长 And that's because the world's productivity is always increasing and so is the world's population
那么，怎样才能在股市中赚钱呢？ So how can you make money in the stock market
最简单的方法就是买一个跟踪股市指数的ETF，比如标普500 Well the easiest way is to simply buy an ETF that tracks the stock market like the S&P 500
你可以买入SPY或VOO，然后持有30年 And you could buy the SPY or the VOO and hold it for the next 30 years
这样做的话，你肯定会赚钱 And if you do that you're going to make money
这在过去100多年里每年都有效 This has worked every year for more than 100 years
所以无论你什么时候买入，即使是30年前，30年后你都能赚钱 So if you bought at any point even back here 30 years later you will have made money
所以只要你持有时间够长，股市赚钱基本是板上钉钉的事 So there's certainty in making money in the stock market if your time frame is long
如果你能持有10年、20年、30年，就像管理你的退休账户那样 If you can hold for a long time 10, 20, 30 years like you would in your retirement account
这是某股票的日线图，正处于一个小幅回调的牛市阶段，回调幅度不大 This is a daily chart of a stock and it's in a small pullback bull trend. The pullbacks are small
牛市通道非常紧凑 The bull channel is tight
这是一波非常强势的上涨趋势 It's a very strong bull trend
如果你想在日线图上交易并获利 If you want to trade the daily chart and make money
你可以做的一件事是等价格回调到某条均线附近 one thing you can do is wait for it to pull back to a moving average
比如20 Bar的指数移动均线 like the 20 bar exponential moving average
或者直接等它下跌10根Bar or simply wait for it to drop 10 bars
等15根Bar后买入，买入点是在一根收盘价接近高点的Bull Bar之上 15 bars and then buy above a bull bar closing near its high
这里有一根小的Bull Bar收盘价接近高点，你就在它上方买入 Here's a small bull bar closing near its high so you buy above that
收盘价接近高点的Bull Bar，上方买入 A bull bar closing near its high you buy above that
或者等市场下跌10根或20根Bar再买入 Or you could wait for the market to drop 10 or 20 and then buy
这是一个非常有效的赚钱方式 And that is a very good way to make money
只要你这样操作并且熟练掌握 If you do that and you get reasonably good at it
你应该能每年赚取10%到20%的收益 you should be able to make 10 to 20 return a year
只要上涨趋势依然强劲，你都可以持仓 You can hold as long as the trend is strong
如果市场上涨了20点，适当分批止盈是没问题的 It's OK to take partial profits if the market rallies 20
这种交易方式的问题是，只有账户资金够大才能奏效 The problem with this style of trading is it really only works if you have a big trading account
说实话，富人赚钱总是容易得多 And I mean the reality is it's always easier for rich people to make money
如果你有一千万账户，做这套操作每年赚10% So if you have a 10 million account and you make 10 a year doing that
那你每年能赚一百万美元 you're making a million dollars a year
如果你账户只有一万，靠这种方法交易是赚不到生活费的 If you have a 10,000 account you're not going to be able to make a living trading this way
这是一个五分钟的E-mini迷你合约图表 This is a five minute e-mini chart
这里有各种各样的形态 There are lots of patterns here
优秀的日内交易者即使资金不多，也能赚取可观收益 And great day traders can make a lot of money even with a relatively small account
大多数日内交易者的账户资金较小 Most day traders have small accounts
如果他们想靠交易维持生计 And if they're going to make a living as a trader
他们需要比普通投资者更高的回报 they need much higher returns than an investor needs
甚至比那些做日线和周线图表交易的专业交易者还要更高的回报 or much higher returns than a professional trader trading the daily and weekly charts needs
这活儿挺辛苦，但想拿到高额回报，就得付出辛勤努力 It's hard work but if you're going to be getting very high returns you have to expect to work hard
你得频繁交易 You're taking up a lot of trades
比如说，作为日内交易者，你得快速做出许多决策 If you're a day trader for example you have to make a lot of decisions
我主要用五分钟图进行交易 Time frame I trade mostly the five minute chart
这里是一张迷你e-mini五分钟图 Here is an e mini five minute chart
可以看到，有很多买入反转然后卖出的机会 You can see there are lots of opportunities to buy reversals up and sell them
你也能卖出下跌反转 You can sell reversals down
对一些人来说，这活儿实在太累了 For some people it's just too much work
决策来得太快，他们根本跟不上，做不了快速决定 The decisions just come too quickly and they can't make the decisions fast enough
他们也下不了单这么快 They can't place the orders fast enough
另一种办法是用15分钟图交易 An alternative is to trade the 15 minute chart
15分钟图上的交易次数一天要少很多 There are far fewer trades a day on the 15 minute chart
不过这里有足够的入场形态，若你成为高手，完全能赚得不错的收入 However there are enough setups that you can make a really good living if you become a very skilled trader
那么，哪个时间周期才是最佳选择？ So what time frame is the sweet spot
你在哪个时间段实现利润最大化？ Where do you maximize your profits?
每年获得最大的利润 The greatest profits per year.
年线图的赚钱概率最高 The yearly chart has the highest probability of making money,
这对你的退休账户非常有利 and that's good for your retirement accounts.
你必须从几十年的角度来考虑 You've got to be thinking in terms of decades,
每年赚7%到8%，坚持30到40年，这是一件非常值得做的事 and making 7 or 8% a year for 30 or 40 years is a very good thing to do.
大多数日内交易者会犯太多错误 Most day traders will make too many mistakes
如果他们交易的时间框架每小时超过20根Bar if they trade a time frame where there are more than 20 bars per hour.
所以三分钟图或五分钟图 So a three-minute chart, five-minute chart,
如果你用成交笔数或成交量来交易图表 if you trade charts based upon ticks or volumes,
请选择每小时不超过20根Bar的时间间隔 pick an interval where there are no more than 20 bars per hour.
其中一个问题是早盘成交量很大 And one of the problems is the volume is big early in the day,
收盘时成交量也很大 the volume is big late in the day,
你可能不得不在盘中调整时间间隔 and you may end up having to change your interval in the middle of the day.
我觉得那会分散注意力。他是个大个子 I find that a distraction. He's a big guy.
所以我更喜欢只交易基于时间的图表 So I'd rather just trade charts based on time.
如果你能在15秒图上盈利交易150个品种或多只股票 If you can profitably trade 150 items or multiply one stock on a 15-second chart, it's probably
你会发现长时间这样做压力太大 you'll find that it's too stressful to do it for any length of time.
所以你可能只能坚持5分钟或15分钟 So you might be able to do it for 5 minutes or 15 minutes,
但剩下的时间你打算怎么过？ but what are you going to do for the rest of the day?
在一分钟图上，Bar都比较小 Also on a one minute chart the bars are small
所以你得追求较小的利润 So you have to go for a smaller profit
时间周期越短，风险越小，仓位就能做得越大，这是一条通用原则 The smaller the time frame the smaller the risk and the bigger the position size. So that's a generality
就像我说的，如果你觉得交易五分钟图太慢或者太紧张 As I said if you find that you're too slow or too stressed out trading the 5 minute chart
那就改买十五分钟图吧 buy the 15 minute chart
90%的交易日里，十五分钟图上至少会出现一次好交易 90% of days will have at least one good trade on the 15 minute chart
背景条件不错，信号Bar也很有效 The context is good and the signal bar will be good
在一根收盘价逼近低点的Bear Bar下方卖出 Selling below a bear bar closing near its low
在一根收盘价逼近高点的Bull Bar下方买入 buying below a bull bar closing near its high
因为Bar更大，风险也更大，所以你得用更小的仓位交易 Since the bars are bigger the risk is bigger so you have to trade a smaller position size
总的来说，在你稳定盈利前，最好一直用最小仓位交易 In general for all trading until you're consistently profitable you should always trade the smallest position
尤其是对于那些紧密相关的公司，更应该如此 Even less so for close companies
以我个人来说，我可能需要买更大的仓位 Then in my particular case I'd have to buy a larger position size possible
一份Micro E Mini合约，够小了 One Micro E Mini one small enough
这里是一分钟图 Here's the one minute chart
你会看到这里有很多好形态和交易机会 You can see there are lots of good patterns and lots of trades
一分钟图的缺点是 The problem with one minute chart is
在五分钟图上，你可能会做5点的短线交易 On a 5 minute chart you might be scalping for 5 points
在十五分钟图上，你可能会做10点的短线交易 On a 15 minute chart you might be scalping for 10 points
但在一分钟图上，你可能只能做1到2点的短线交易 But on a one minute chart you're probably scalping for 1 or 2 points
如果你在五分钟图或十五分钟图上做波段交易，每天赚20点 If you're making 20 points a day swing trading on a five-minute chart or 15-minute chart
但如果你在一分钟图上做剥头皮，每次只赚两点 to make that same amount of money if you're scalping two points on a one-minute chart
你就得做十次交易，并且要好好管理这些交易 you have to take 10 trades and manage them well
所以一分钟剥头皮交易者工作过度，压力山大，收入却非常低 So a one-minute scalper he's overworked he's constantly stressed and he's really terribly underpaid
所以短时间做这活挺有趣的 So it's fun to do for short periods of time
但你很快会发现，光靠这赚足够的钱谋生非常困难 but you'll soon discover that it's very difficult to make enough money to make a living
在一分钟图上交易 Trading on a one-minute chart
目标与工作坊 The goals and the workshop
我认为每个人都可以在市场赚钱，问题是怎么做 I think everybody can make money in the market The issue is how
一般来说，当你只有很少的好入场或止损交易时 As a general rule when you have very few good entries or stop trades
这很可能是一个交易区间日 it's probably a Trading Range day
大多数交易者在交易区间日不应该频繁交易 Most traders should not trade very much in a Trading Range day
专业交易者没有情绪，也很无聊 Professional traders are unemotional and they're boring
当他们交易时 When they trade
他们不会试图赚取最大利润或交易最大仓位 And they do not try to make the most money possible or trade the biggest position size
因为除了赚钱之外，玩得开心也很重要 because in addition to making money it's really important to have fun
你必须享受你所做的事情 You have to enjoy what you're doing
如果你打算终身做这件事，你不能总是处于压力状态 If you're going to be doing this for a lifetime you cannot be stressed out
所以你必须减少压力，这意味着你得交易较小的仓位 So you have to minimize stress and that means you have to trade a smaller position size
我想展示给你们最好的赚钱方法 I want to show you the best ways to make money
这或许是大多数交易者一生都能稳定盈利的最佳途径 Or at least the best way for most traders to consistently make money for a lifetime
也就是说，你要情绪稳定、头脑清醒，始终处于自己的舒适区 And that means staying unemotional, staying reasonable, and being in your comfort zone
你知道，平淡无奇其实是好事 You know, boring is great
你知道，你可以称它为无聊 You know, you can call it boring
你也可以说这很平和 You can also call it peaceful
如果你想长久坚持下去，这点尤其重要 And that's very important if you're going to be doing this for a long time
所以你既要赚钱，也要享受交易过程 So you need to both make money and enjoy what you're doing
这样你才能终身坚持下去 So that you can do it for a lifetime
工作坊里给交易者的一些建议：我认为现实的期望是 Some lessons for traders in the workshop: I think it's realistic
能够作为交易者赚取舒适的生活费并且享受其中 to expect to be able to make a comfortable living as a trader and enjoy doing it
经验丰富的交易者拥有的主要优势是 The primary advantages that experienced traders have
他们自信、有纪律，且保持冷静 They're confident, they have discipline, and they're calm
这些品质你都能拥有 And those all are within your reach
没有什么秘密的形态，也没有特别的技巧 There are no secret patterns and no special tricks
你只是变得擅长快速识别你已经知道的东西 You just get good at quickly recognizing what you already know
你赚的钱与你识别形态和管理交易的能力成正比 The money that you make is directly proportional to your ability to recognize patterns and manage trades
交易中最重要的一件事就是停止做傻事 The single most important thing in trading is stop doing dumb things
如果你回顾过去的20笔交易，你可能会看到几笔非常出色的交易 If you look back at your past 20 trades, you'll probably see several trades that were excellent
你挑选了好的入场形态，管理得也很出色 You picked good setups, you managed them well
然而20笔交易下来，你还是亏了钱 Yet after 20 trades, you still lost money
那是因为你犯了太多错误 And that's because you did too many dumb things
如果你回顾现在的交易，你会发现很多问题 If you look at your trading now you'll see a lot of
在规划交易时，你会发现自己买得太高 When you're planning trades you'll find that you bought too high
你卖得太低，提前离场，还选了信号K线不理想的入场形态 You sold too low you exited too early you took setups where the signal bar was not good
越早改正这些行为，你就能越快实现稳定盈利 The faster you eliminate those behaviors the sooner you'll become consistently profitable
说到底，盈利的交易虽无聊，但平和且有乐趣 Again trading profitably is boring but it's peaceful and it's fun
参加研讨会的一个好处是可以看到资深交易者的实盘操作 Some of the benefits from attending the workshop is you'll get to watch experienced traders trade
你能和交易者交流，明白他们其实和你没什么不同 You get to talk to traders and see that they are just like you
你会观察交易者在平常交易日的操作，帮助你树立切实可行的预期 You'll watch traders trade during an ordinary day and it helps you set realistic expectations
你能看到交易者等待入场机会时的状态 You see what traders do when they're waiting for trades
你能看到交易者应对亏损交易的方式 And you'll watch traders handle bad trades
千万别下单仓位大到让你害怕亏损 Never trade a position size that is so big
亏损时害怕 That you get afraid when you lose
我今天想分享的五个重点 Five points that I'd like to teach today
我想告诉你一条稳定盈利的合理路径 I want to show a reasonable path to consistently making money
无论是交易E mini还是其他主流市场 Trading the E mini or any other major market
先专注于波段交易，等你稳定盈利后，可以逐步增加剥头皮操作 Focus on swing trading Once you get good and consistently profitable you can scalp more and more
不过刚开始，学会做波段交易很关键 But initially I think it's important to learn how to be a swing trader
同时重点关注开盘后的前两小时 Also focus on the first two hours
因为90%的交易日里至少会有一次波段机会 Because 90% of days will have at least one swing
在E迷你合约中，一笔交易至少赚20点 One trade that makes at least 20 points in the E mini
现在20点相当于平均一日波动的40% Currently 20 points is 40% of an average day's range
平均每天波动大约50点 An average day is about 50 points
40%的波动就是20点 And 40% of that is 20 points
这应当是波段交易者努力追求的目标 And that should be the goal for a swing trader
波段交易的目标是赚取当天波动的40% To make 40% of a day's range on a swing trade
以一份合约计算，20点利润每天能赚1000美元，年收益约20万美元 For one contract 20 points is 1,000 a day and about 200,000 a year
80%的交易日内出现最高波段波动 80% of days have the highest swing rate
当天的最高点或最低点通常出现在开盘后的90分钟内 That's the high or low of the day within the first 90 minutes
这就是为什么开盘后的90分钟非常关键的另一个原因 And that's another reason why it's so important to focus on the first 90 minutes
你要知道，90%的交易日都会出现至少一笔波段交易 You know 90% of days will have at least one swing trade
80%的交易日波段交易会在开盘后90分钟内启动 And 80% of days will have a swing trade beginning in the first 90 minutes
入场时应使用止损单 You should enter with a stop order
在Bull Bar收盘接近高点之上买入 Buying above a bull bar closing near its high
或者在Bear Bar收盘接近低点之下卖出 Or selling below a bear bar closing near its low
同时设置保护性止损单 And use a protective stop
利润达到20点或以上时就应退出交易 Exit once you've had at least 20 points profit
或者当交易依据失效时应及时平仓 Or when the premise is no longer valid
所以当你买入后出现合理的卖出信号时 So if you buy and then you see a reasonable sell signal
就说明买入信号失效，你应该及时退出 Your buy signal is no longer valid and you should exit
我认为要明白，只有40%的波段交易能获得 I think it's important to realize that only 40% of swing trades will make a reward that is
收益至少是风险的两倍 at least twice the risk
但只要你追求收益是风险两倍，40%的成功率就足够了 However, 40% is all you need if you're going for a reward that's twice the risk
很多交易的盈利会达到风险的两倍 A lot of the trades will have a profit that's twice the risk
这比风险高出好几倍 That is several times greater than the risk
我会用两台笔记本电脑，一台专门交易 I'm going to use two laptops. One for trading
另一台用来把交易过程展示在屏幕上 And the other to show the trades on the screen
我会用一个账户来做波段交易 I will swing trade with one account
前提是有波段交易的机会 Assuming there are swing trades
另一个账户我会用来做剥头皮交易 And I will scalp with the other
我的目标是寻找一个20点的波段交易 My goal is to try to find a 20-point swing trade
这样的交易通常至少持续几小时 Which would last at least a couple hours
而且一般会经历一到多次回调 And typically it would have one or more pullbacks
如果当天大部分时间都是日内交易，属于交易区间日 If the day trading is most of the day, a trading range day
我会做剥头皮，目标赚5点，最多10点 I will scalp for 5 points, maybe 10 points
我会交易一个迷你合约 I'm going to trade one e-mini contract
不过我有时会分批建仓，逐步加仓。总体而言 But I sometimes will scale into a trade, on to my position. And in general
如果你打算加仓 If you're thinking about adding to a trade
加仓盈利中的交易远比加仓亏损中的交易更好 It's much better to add to a winning trade
加仓盈利交易远胜于加仓亏损交易 Than it is to a losing trade
压力会小很多 It's a lot less stressful
你更容易赚到钱 And you're much more likely to make a profit
所以，如果你一开始交易量小 So if you trade small initially
你可以逐步加仓 You can add to your trade
一开始交易量小更好 And it's better if you trade small initially
而且交易走势朝你预期的方向发展 And the trade goes your way
然后根据额外出现的信号再加仓 Than add to it as additional signals
信号是顺着你交易方向形成的 Form in the direction you're trading
一般来说，每笔交易的风险不应超过账户总额的2% In general you should not be risking more than 2% of your trading account on any one trade
今天我每笔交易控制风险在2000左右 Today I'll risk about 2,000 per trade
我有很多交易账户 I have a lot of trading accounts
所以我有大量交易资金 And so I have a lot of trading money
所以2000远远低于我账户的总资金 So 2,000 is a lot less than the total size of my trading account
但这是我今天设定的风险限额 But that's the limit I'm setting for myself today
基本形态上要灵活应变，保持开放心态 Basic patterns, be flexible and be open to anything
所有交易的三个基础要素是：寻找楔形、双顶、双底以及突破 The three building blocks for all trading: you're looking for wedges, doubles, double tops, double bottoms, and breakouts
楔形并不像教科书里画的那样 And wedges don't look like they do in the textbooks
这里如果我从1点连线到2点 Here if I drew a line from 1 to 2
线会画得很低 The lines would be way down here
我画线时总是留有超出部分 I always draw the lines so that there is an overshoot
所以如果我选择1和反转3，2就是一个超调 So if I choose 1 and reversal 3 two is an overshoot
这里如果我选择1和2，3就是一个超调 Here if I choose 1 and 2 three is an overshoot
这样更容易看出一个楔形的形态 And it makes it easier to see a pattern as a wedge
如果我在那儿画条线 If I have the line there
所以楔形底部通常预示着向上反转 So wedged bottom look for a reversal up
楔形顶部则预示着向下反转 Wedge top you look for a reversal down
这里出现了一个更低的双底形态 Here you got a lower low double bottom
这里出现了一个更低的双顶形态 Here you got a lower high double top
双顶和双底形态很少会完全完美 Double tops double bottoms they're rarely perfect
第二个高点可能高于或低于第一个高点，或者第一个低点 The second high can be above or below the first high or the first low
突破是非常关键的 And breakouts breakouts are really important
多头突破时，要找那些收盘价接近高点的大阳线 For a bull breakout you're looking for big bull bars closing in their highs
阳线越多，上涨趋势越有可能延续 And the more of them the more likely the trend will go up
空头突破时，要找那些收盘价接近低点的大阴线，这就是突破 And for bear breakouts you're looking for bear bars big bear bars closing near their lows and that's a breakout
如果突破像这样强势 If the breakout is strong like that or like this
你有70%的概率至少会出现一段小的上涨走势，可能是这样，也可能是那样 There's a 70 chance you'll have at least a small second leg up maybe that maybe that
空头突破时，有70%的概率会有至少一段小幅下跌走势 And for a bear breakout 70 chance you'll have at least a small second leg down here
我觉得这点非常重要 I think this is really important
所有形态都有40%的失败概率 All patterns fail 40 of the time
它形成了另外三个构建模块 It creates three more building blocks
所以，除了楔形底部或楔形顶部外，还可能出现失败的楔形底部或失败的楔形顶部 So instead of a Wedge Bottom or Wedge Top you can get a Failed Wedge Bottom or Failed Table
市场没有上涨，而是跌破底部后向下展开一个测量式走势 Instead of the market going up it can break below the bottom and go down for a measured move
通过楔形顶部到底部的距离来测量下跌幅度 The top of the wedge to the bottom of the wedge to measure move down
这里出现了一个楔形顶部，市场试图向下反转 Here we have a Wedge Top we tried to reverse down
市场突破了顶部，基于楔形高度展开了向上的测量式走势 We broke out of the top and went for measured move up based on the height of the wedge
先是突破，随后回调，形成了楔形通道 We had a breakout and then a pullback and the wedge channel
这里是楔形的起点 This is the start of the wedge
这里是楔形的终点 This is the end of the wedge
这就是测量式走势 And that's the measured move
双底和双顶的情况也是类似的 The same with double bottoms and double tops
因此，你可能会出现一个双底形态 So you can have a double bottom
价格开始强势反转上涨 It starts to reverse off strongly
随后价格跌破了支撑底部 And then it breaks below the bottom
你不是去寻找突破顶部并展开向上的测量式走势 Instead of looking for a breakout above the top and a measured move up
而是寻找跌破底部并展开向下的测量式走势 You look for a breakout below the bottom and a measured move down
这里出现了一个双顶形态的尝试 And here we have an attempt at a double top
而不是跌破颈线后展开向下的测量式走势 Instead of breaking below the neckline and falling for a measured move down
而是突破了双顶上方，随后 It broke above the double and then
多头突破和空头突破都有可能失败 Bull breakouts bear breakouts they can fail as well
这里出现了一个多头突破三角形，随后市场反转下跌 So here you got a bull breakout above a triangle and the market reversed down
所以这是一次失败的多头突破 So it's a failed bull breakout
这导致多头被套牢，形成了多头陷阱 So it trapped bulls into a bad long. It's a bull trap
这里市场形成了一个双底 And here the market had a double bottom
它跌破了双底，但随后反转向上 It broke below the double bottom but reversed up
所以你得到了一个失败的空头突破 So you got a failed bear breakout
这里是完美的三重底 Perfect triple bottom right here
所有三个低点都恰好在同一价格位 All three lows are exactly at the same price
完美的形态非常罕见 Well, perfect patterns are rare
其实很多形态都是三重底的变体 And there are lots of things that are actually just variations of triple bottoms
比如头肩底，你有三个底 For example, a head and shoulders bottom. You got three bottoms
第二个底比第一个和第三个都低 The second one is lower than the first and the third
有时候你会看到双底、反转和回调 Sometimes you got a double bottom, a reversal, and a pullback
所以双底回调就是三个底，好吗？ So a double bottom pullback is three bottoms. Okay
你也可以看到双底、跌破和反转向上 You can have a double bottom, a breakout below, and a reversal up
所以那是三次向上的反转，这里也是一样 So that's three reversals up. And the same here
然后你还可能看到一个楔形 And then you can have a wedge
你可能会说，艾伦，这不是三重底，我知道 And you can say, well Alan, it's not a triple bottom. I know
但它基本上是一个向下倾斜的三重底，这里是个三角形 But it's basically a triple bottom that's tilted down. It's here a triangle
你有三个低点，然后反转向上 You have three lows and then a reversal up
它们都是三次尝试做某事，但市场失败了，然后尝试做相反的事情 So they're all three attempts to do something and the market fails and then it tries to do the opposite
这就是你看待三重底的正确方式 And that's how you should think about triple bottoms
三重顶的情况则恰恰相反 Triple tops the exact opposite
完美的三重顶形态非常罕见 Perfect triple tops are rare
大多数三重顶的形态并不是那样的 Most triple tops don't look that way
比如头肩顶形态，会出现三次向下的反转动作 For example a head and shoulders top you have three reversals down
这里出现了一个双顶回调形态 You have a double top pullback here
这里有一个双顶以及一次失败的多头突破 You got a double top and a failed bull breakout
又是一个双顶，伴随着另一次失败的多头突破 A double top another failed bull breakout
这里形成了一个楔形顶部 You got a wedge top
接着出现一个三角形，随后发生空头突破 Then you have a triangle and then a bear breakout
所以三角形形态表现为三次向上推动，两次向下回撤 So triangle three pushes up two pushes down
情况也可以反过来 It can be the other way around
你也可以看到三次向下推动，伴随两次向上回调 You can have three pushes down and two pushes up
波段交易的指导原则 Swing trading guidelines
我待会儿会讲剥头皮交易的指导原则 I'm going to be talking about the scalping guidelines in a few minutes
不过先让我聊聊波段交易 But let me talk about the swing trading
做波段交易时，你关注的是主要的形态 When you think about swing trading you're thinking about major patterns
你希望市场能移动大约相当于平均日波动范围40%的距离 You're looking for the market to move about 40% of an average day's range
一般来说，波段交易至少涉及10根Bar In general it's going to be at least 10 bars
很多时候会达到20根Bar甚至更多 A lot of times it's 20 bars or more
通常它至少包含两段走势 And typically it will have at least two legs
目标是大约40%的平均日交易区间，有时只有20% And you're looking for about 40% of the average day's range sometimes only 20%
你希望获得的回报至少是风险的两倍 And you're looking for a reward that is at least twice your risk
一般来说，收益大约是剥头皮交易的四倍 In general it's about four times as big as a scalp the reward
大约是平均Bar交易区间的三倍 And three times an average bar's range
所以你寻找的剥头皮交易利润 So the profit that you're looking for for a scalp
通常低于Bar的平均高度 it's usually less than the average height of a bar
而波段交易的利润通常至少是Bar平均高度的三倍 And for a swing trade it's usually at least three times greater than the average height of a bar
通常大约是剥头皮交易的四倍 And it's usually about four times as great as a scalp
所以如果剥头皮交易者目标是赚5点 So if a scalper is looking to make five points
那么波段交易者目标是赚20点 the swing trader is looking to make 20 points
最好用止损单入场，只有在出现强势信号K线时才进场 Better to enter with a stop order and only enter if there's a strong signal bar
进场时，等待一个重要的反转形态 When you're looking to enter wait for a major reversal
反转形态、旗形，即趋势中的回调，或强势突破 A reversal, a flag, so a pullback in the trend or a strong breakout
如果有良好的入场形态，波段交易的成功概率至少有40% and the probability will be at least 40% of making a swing trade if you have a good setup
且有良好的信号K线 and a good signal bar
这意味着你所做的60%的波段交易不会盈利 That means 60% of the swing trades that you take will not result in a swing trade profit
通常会带来小幅盈利或小幅亏损 It will result typically in a small profit or a small loss
正如我之前说的，先小额交易是合理的，然后顺势加仓 As I said earlier it is reasonable to trade small and then add on
随着交易顺利进行，分批建仓 scale in as the trade goes your way
刚开始交易时，持有很小的仓位总是好的 It is always good especially when you are starting out to trade a very small position
这里有一个例子 Here is an example
这里出现了双底，随后反转向上，然后从楔形结构出现了向下反转 We have a double bottom a reversal up and then we had a reversal down from a wedge
所以你没有赚到当天交易区间的40% So you did not make 40% of the day's range
你没有赚到三到四倍的收益 You did not make three or four times
然后在这里，你不仅可以出场，还可以做空 And then here not only can you exit but you can go short
因为现在你有一个楔形顶部，这是个好形态 because now you have a wedge top a good pattern
而且这里有一根大Bear Bar，收盘价靠近最低点 and you have a big bear bar closing near its low
你可以在Bear Bar收盘价接近最低点的这里或这里下方卖出更多 You could sell more below a bear bar closing near its low there or here
这里出现了强势突破，跌破均线，日终出场 You've got a strong breakout below the moving average and end of the day exit
背景可能和信号K线一样重要，甚至更重要 The context is just as important probably more important than the signal bar
背景是指左边的Bar，它们形成形态，你在寻找支撑和阻力 The context means the bars to the left they create patterns and you're looking for support and resistance
准备入场时，等待强势的信号K线 When you're looking to enter wait until there is a strong signal bar
反转向上时，并不总是最低的那根Bar It's not always the lowest bar in a reversal up
反转向下时，也不总是最高的那根Bar It's not always the highest bar in a reversal down
除非处于强劲的Bull Breakout和Bull Trend中，否则不要买得太高 Do not buy too high unless you're in a strong bull breakout with strong bull trend
除非处于强劲的Bear市场，否则不要卖得太低 And do not sell too low unless you're in a strong bear market
当你入场时，如果有良好的背景、形态和信号K线 When you are entering and there is good context a good pattern and a good signal bar
你有40%的概率至少赚到两倍风险的利润 there is a 40% chance of making at least twice your risk
通常你会经历一到两次回调 Typically you will have at least one or two pullbacks along the way
因为你可能需要持有10到20根Bar，才能达到你的目标 Because you probably will have to hold on for 10 or 20 bars until you reach your objective
如果你的前提不再合理，就要提前退出 And exit early if your premise is no longer reasonable
我们有一个强劲的空头突破，随后是三次下跌推动 We've got a strong bear breakout and then three pushes down
所以这是一个尖峰与通道中的突破，同时形成了一个嵌套楔形底部 So it's a spike or breakout in channel a wedge bottom
出现了一根收盘价接近高点的Bull Bar You have a bull bar closing near its high
第一次向上的反转可能较小，因为通道很窄 The first reversal up might be minor because the channel is tight
所以如果你买入这根Bar，可能不会引发上涨趋势 So if you do buy this it probably will not lead to a bull trend
但这里我们有一个非常强烈的次级向上反转 But here we have a very strong minor reversal up
因此，如果我们再出现一次向上反转 And therefore if we get another reversal up
有40%的概率它将成为主要反转，并引发上涨趋势 There is a 40% chance it will be major and lead to a bull trend
这根Bull Bar收盘于其上三分之一区域 Bull bar closing in its top third
这是第三次向上尝试，分别是一、二和三 It's a third attempt up One two and three
所以我们有一个小楔形、一个较高的低点以及主要趋势反转 So we've got a small wedge A higher low major trend reversal
较高的低点形成主要趋势反转，因此出现强烈的次级反转 Higher low major trend reversal So strong minor reversal
然后是第二次反转，你可以称之为较高低点的双底 And then a second reversal You can call it a higher low double bottom
在那根Bar、这根Bar或另一根Bar的上方买入都是合理的 Reasonable to buy above that bar or above this bar or above that bar
这根Bull Bar收盘价接近高点 Bull bar is closing near their high
这里有一个楔形顶部，同时也是一个双顶 Here we have a wedge top and it's also a double top
看左边，这是强阻力位 Look to the left It's high resistance
这是一根大阴线，收盘价接近其低点 It's a big bear bar closing near its low
如果你在这里买入，然后在那里卖出，这是合理的 It's reasonable if you bought here to exit there
你能做空吗？我不会，因为通道太窄了 Can you short it? I would not because the channel is so tight
我会先等着看有没有第二次反转，然后再考虑做空 I'd wait to see if there was a second reversal and then look to short
如果你因风险太大而不敢交易，最好准备第二个较小的仓位 If you're afraid to take a trade because the risk is too big, always have a second position size
你的第二个仓位大小应约为平时仓位的20% And your second position size should be about 20% of your usual size
如果你通常交易一个E-mini合约，那20%就是两个微型E-mini合约 If you normally trade one E-mini, 20% of that is two micro E-minis
如果市场向你预期的方向发展，且前提条件依旧有效，你可以增加仓位 If the market goes your way, you can add to your position if your premise is still good
如果市场逆势且你能承受在亏损中加仓，那你也可以做加仓 If it goes against you and you can handle adding to a losing trade, you can add to your position
但大多数交易者，如果他们想分批建仓 But most traders, if they're looking to scale in,
最好只在交易顺势时进行分批建仓 it's better only to scale in if the trade is going your way
如果市场逆势，分批建仓很容易出错 It's too easy to make mistakes scaling in if the market is going against you
初学者通常会先交易得很好，然后在市场逆势时分五次批建仓 What typically happens to beginners is they trade really well and they scale in with the
市场反向走了五次 market going against them five times
然后有一次市场反向，他们又分批建仓 And then one time it goes against them they scale in
市场继续反向，他们又加仓了 It goes further against them they scale in again
结果他们在这笔交易上亏了很多钱 And they end up losing so much money on that one trade
这笔亏损完全抵消了之前他们做的五笔好交易的收益 it totally erased the five good trades that they took before it
这就是分批建仓的问题所在 And that's the problem with scaling in
如果市场逆势 If the market is going against you
重大反转更可能发生在支撑或阻力位，比如昨天的高点和低点 major reversals are more likely at support or resistance like the high and low of yesterday
GLOBEX交易时段内的上周高点或低点 The GLOBEX range last week's high or low
上个月的高点或低点，或交易区间的顶部或底部 Last month's high or low or the top or the bottom of the trading range
还可以是之前的任何高点或低点，包括日内50%的回撤、趋势线、测量移动和均线 It could also be any other prior high or low including intraday 50 pullbacks trendlines measured moves moving averages
这些也是潜在的支撑或阻力，因此要关注那些价格附近的形态 Those are also potential support or resistance so look for patterns taking place at those prices
这里出现了一个楔形顶部，还有一根强劲的Bear Bar在此收盘 Here we have a wedge top and a strong bear bar closing there
这根K线的最低点就在开盘价附近 It's low and it's on the open
这是一次合适的波段交易 That's a reasonable swing trade
做波段交易时，超过一半的情况是 And when you take swing trades more than half the time
市场一开始往往会做出一些动作，让你以为自己要亏钱了 The market will do something early on that will make you think you're going to lose money
但要相信你的仓位，保持耐心 But rely on your stock Be patient
这里有一次合理的突破，然后连续三次反转向上，一、二、三，这形成了一个楔形 And here we've got a fair breakout and then three reversals up One two three So it's a wedge
这里尝试了一次向上的反转 We tried to reverse up here
第二次尝试向上反转 Tried to reverse up a second time
此处选择退出是明智的 It's reasonable to exit here
你持仓了大约20根Bar，获利至少是风险的两倍 So you held for about 20 bars and you made at least twice your risk
所以这又是一笔合适的波段交易 So that's a reasonable swing trade
当天稍后，多头形成了一个双底 Later in the day the bulls have a double bottom
冲破了颈线，但突破未能成功 A breakout above the neck And the breakout failed
这里有一个微型双顶，接着又出现了另一个微型双顶，然后反转向下 We've got a micro double top here Another micro double top here A reversal down
然后又发生了一次向下反转，一根体量较大的Bear Bar收盘接近最低点 And then a reversal down with a decent sized bear bar closing near its low
这是一个合理的波段交易，基于双顶形成的Bear Flag，整体趋势是下跌的 That's a reasonable swing trade for a DT based bear flag and trend results are down
所以这里有一个下跌趋势，一个双顶形态，然后又是一个下跌趋势 So you have a bear trend, a DT, and a bear trend
这就是双顶Bear Flag形态 It's the DT bear flag
市场可能会在收盘前继续向下运行 And the market may resume down into the close
所以这是一个合理的波段交易 So that's a reasonable swing trade
然后你可以选择在收盘前平仓离场 And then you can exit right before the close
有人说只有40%的波段交易能够真正获利 They said that only 40% of swing trades actually succeed in
收益至少是风险的两倍 giving you a reward that's at least twice your risk
你最终会在大多数波段交易中采取剥头皮策略 And you'll end up scalping out of most of your swing trades
这也是为什么掌握剥头皮技巧非常关键的原因之一 And that's one of the reasons why it's important to know how to scalp
因为即使你是波段交易者，大部分交易还是会用剥头皮方式完成 Because even if you're a swing trader, you're going to be scalping most of your trades
如果你在这两个任意一个Bull Bar之上买入 If you buy above one or either of these two bull bars and
然后出现一根收盘价接近最低点的大Bear Bar then you get a big bear bar closing near its low
你很可能会迎来第二段上涨走势 You're probably going to get a second leg up
但开盘时，50%的强势行情都是陷阱，市场随后反转 But on the open, 50% of strong moves are traps and the market reverses
所以我认为最好在这根Bear Bar下方离场 So I think it's good to get out below that bear bar
现在出现了一个从昨天开始的楔形，这是这次回调后的第二段上涨走势 Now we have a wedge that began yesterday and it's the second leg up from this one pullback two
这是一个Bull Breakout（上涨突破）和一个通道形态 It's a bull breakout and a channel
在更小的时间周期图表上，有一个通道形态 On a smaller time frame chart, there's a channel
你看到一根收盘价接近最低点的Bear Bar You have a bear bar closing near its low
所以这在开盘时是一个合理的买入高潮波段，随后反转下跌 So that's a reasonable swing for a buy climax on the open and a reversal down
现在我们有一个卖出高潮，更低低点的双底，以及一根收盘价接近高点的大阳线 And now we've got a sell climax, a lower low double bottom, a big bull bar closing near its high
在那里离场是合理的。你能在那里买入做多吗？ Reasonable to exit there. Could you buy there and get long?
经历了这么多卖盘和一次成功的下跌波段后，我会等待第二次入场 I would wait for a second entry after this much selling and after a successful swing down
现在我们尝试形成一个更高低点的主要趋势反转 Now we have an attempt at a higher low major trend reversal
这是一个较小时间框架上的楔形 This is a wedge on a smaller time frame
所以我们先下跌，停顿下跌，再停顿下跌 So we went down, we paused down, we paused down
所以这是一个微型楔形 So it's a micro wedge
这是一根收盘价接近高点的阳线 It's a bull bar closing near its high
这就是一个更高低点的主要趋势反转 And that's a higher low major trend reversal
一个空头趋势，在空头通道上方的突破 A bear trend, a breakout above the bear channel
一个强劲的小型反转，现在形成了一个更高低点 A strong minor reversal and now a higher low
如果你跟随这个操作，你不会获得趋势走势 And if you took this you did not get a trend out of it
你最终只能做短线交易平仓 You'll end up scalping out
价格上涨力度并不强劲 It just didn't go up very strongly
而空头则形成了双顶 And the bears, they have a double top
他们有一个楔形反弹，形成了一个更低高点的双顶 They have a wedge rally to a lower high double top here
这里有一个完美的双顶 And they have a perfect double top here
他们可以在该点以下卖出 They could sell below that
市场正在走高 And the market is going up
市场在当天的低点附近反弹 The market bounced near the low of the day
他们可能会在一根收盘价接近高点的Bull Bar之上平仓 They could get out above a bull bar closing near its high
他们又一次分批平仓 And again they're scaling out
所以这位在这里买入的多头进行了分批平仓 So the bull who bought here he scaled out
这里卖出的空头也进行了分批平仓 The bears that sold here they scaled out
这位在这里买入的多头赚得并不多 And the bull who bought here did not make much money
所以这里大约有五笔交易，只有一笔是不错的波段交易 So you've got about five trades here and one was a good swing trade
这是一只股票的周线图 This is a weekly chart of a stock
你可能会认为聪明的机构在这里买入，但实际上是谁在买呢？ You know you assume the smart institutions are buying here but who's buying here
是不是主要是那些一直在场外等待好入场形态的多头？ Is it mostly bulls who have been on the sidelines waiting for a good setup
虽然有一些是这样，但更可能是多头在加仓 Well there's some of that but it's more likely bulls adding to their position size
无论是什么趋势，只要趋势强劲，交易者都会选择加仓 Whatever trend is really strong traders look to add to their position
尤其是当他们最初建仓时仓位不大 Especially if they are not trading too big initially
所以，每次买入后你都会加仓 So after each new buy you raise your stock
每当出现一根收盘价接近高点的Bull Bar时，都是加仓的信号 Every time you get a bull bar closing near its high it was
如果它比你上次买入的价格高出合理幅度，你就会继续买入更多 If it's a reasonable distance above your prior buy you buy more
如果这是五分钟图，你在这里买入 So if this were a five-minute chart and you bought here
现在这个头寸比你第一次买入的还要大，你就会继续买入更多 And now this is the size of the scalp greater than your first buy you'd buy more
每次都是如此 And every time it
当价格上涨达到一个剥头皮的大小，出现新的买入信号K线时，你可以继续加仓买入 Goes up the size of the scalp and you get another buy signal bar you buy more
这是一种非常有效的交易策略 That's a very good way to trade
先以小仓位入场，随着市场走势有利，再逐步加仓扩大持仓 Trade small and then add to your position as the market goes your way
剥头皮的幅度大致相当于一根Bar的大小 A scalp is about the size of a bar
如果一根Bar跌破前一根Bar的低点，跌幅大约是一个剥头皮的大小 If a bar falls below the low of the prior bar the size of a scalp
那么空头可以通过设置止损单卖出获利 Then a bear can make money selling with a stop order
假设这根Bar跌破了前一根Bar的低点，跌幅约为一个剥头皮的大小 So let's say this bar fell the size of a scalp below this
那么空头在这根Bar的低点以下卖出，并通过止损单获利 Then a bear who sold below that bar was able to make money with a stop order
这说明趋势力量减弱，选择离场是明智的 That means the trend is no longer strong and it's reasonable to get out
假设你在这里做多，也就是在这根Bar的高点之上买入 So if you are long here let's say you buy above that bar
你的止损可能设在这里或这里 Your stop might be here or here
不要等止损被触发后才选择离场 Don't wait for your stop to get hit
你在多头趋势的高点买入，认为多头趋势非常强劲 You bought at the high of a bull trend because you thought the bull trend was very strong
如果价格跌破前一根Bar的低点 If it goes down below the low of the prior bar
跌幅达到一个剥头皮的大小，空头就可以在该低点以下卖出获利 By the size of a scalp then a bear could make money selling below that low
在强劲的多头趋势里，空头不该靠止损单赚钱 And strong bull trends bears should not be able to make money with stop orders
所以，不必把止损设置得太远 So instead of using a stop way down here or here
不如当价格跌破前一根Bar的低点一个剥头皮大小时，直接离场 Simply get out if it falls the size of a scalp below the low of the prior bar
然后你可以重新评估行情 And then you can reevaluate
如果趋势依然看好，你可以再次买入 If the trend still looks good you can buy again
随着抛售继续，空头逐步减仓 Scaling the shorts
随着抛售持续，继续加码卖出 Selling more as the sell-off continues
这仍然是这只股票的五分钟图 Again this is a five-minute chart of the stock
前十根Bar之后，谁还在卖出？ Who's selling after the first ten bars
显然是机构在这里卖出 You know obviously institutions sold up here
但是在这里低位，谁在卖出？ But who's selling down here
主要是那些还没卖出的空头吗？ Is it mostly bears who have not yet sold
有些交易者是还没卖出的空头 Well some of the traders are bears who have not yet sold
很多交易者是没有卖出的空头 A lot of the traders are bears who didn't sell
他们确实卖出过，而且交易量较小，还能继续卖出更多 They did sell and their trading is small enough to sell more
每当那里有一根Bear Bar收盘 Every time there's a bear bar closing there
只要它收于低位，市场下跌幅度相当于一个剃头，你就继续卖出更多 It's low and the market falls the size of a scalp then you sell more
只要趋势依旧强劲，你就能持续这样操作 And you can just keep doing that as long as the trend is still good
如果市场涨破前一根Bar的高点 If the market goes above the high of a prior bar
涨幅足够让多头用止损单获利 Far enough up for a bull to make money with a stop order
所以如果市场涨过那根Bar一个剃头的幅度，你就该退出 So if the market went the size of a scalp above that bar you'd get out
因为多头本不该赚钱 Because bulls should not be making money
多头应该借助止损单和强劲的Bear Trend赚钱 Bulls should be making money with stop orders and strong bear trends
如果多头能靠止损单在强势Bear Trend中赚钱 And if a bull is making money with the stop order and a strong bear trend
那说明Bear Trend更强劲了 It's more of a strong bear trend
你在价格下跌时卖出，因为这是一个强烈的空头趋势 You're selling as it's going down because it's a strong bear trend
如果你有证据表明这不再是强烈的空头趋势，就要退出 If you have evidence that it's no longer a strong bear trend get out
不要等这里或那里某个止损单被触发 Don't wait for a stop up here or stop up there to be hit
然后如果市场形成另一根收盘在那里的空头Bar，你可以再次卖出 And then if the market forms another bear bar closing there slow you can sell again
剥头皮交易指南 Scalping Guidelines
我之前讲了波段交易，现在我想谈谈剥头皮交易 I talked about the swing trading now I want to talk about scalping
我说过波段交易是寻找主要形态和重大走势 I said swing trades you're looking for major patterns and major moves
剥头皮交易则是在寻找主要或次要形态 For scalping you're looking for major or minor patterns
顺带一提，Ali是一位非常出色的剥头皮高手 A successful scalp Ali by the way is an excellent scalper
你寻求的收益通常是平均Bar高度的50%到75% You're looking for a reward that's typically 50 to 75 of the height of an average bar
大约是平均交易区间的10%到20% and about 10 to 20 of an average trading range
剥头皮交易通常会在1到5根Bar内退出 In a scalp trade you're going to exit typically within 1 to 5 bars
有时市场会在达到目标前出现1到2根Bar的回调 Sometimes there will be a 1 or 2 bar pullback before the market reaches your target
一般来说，风险会大于收益 In general the risk will be greater than your reward
因此你必须赢得70%以上的交易才能盈利 And therefore you have to win 70 or more of the time to be profitable
这也是大多数交易者的问题所在 And that is the problem for most traders
大多数交易者无法达到70%的胜率 Most traders cannot win 70 of the time
Ali会谈论这个问题 Ali is going to be talking about this
他会讲很多技巧，帮助交易者达到70%以上的胜率 He's going to be talking a lot about techniques that allow traders to win 70 of the time or more
所以这是可行的，但你必须学会怎么做 So it can be done but you have to learn how to do it
大多数交易者觉得要多年持续稳定地做到这一点非常难 Most traders find it's just too difficult to do consistently for many years
最好专注于波段交易，等待时偶尔做些短线交易 It's better to focus on swing trading and then take occasional scalps while you're waiting
通过使用更宽的止损和分批建仓，可以提升短线交易的成功率 You can always increase the probability of scalps by using wider stops and scaling
优秀的短线交易者入场时，一半用止损单，一半用限价单 Good scalpers half the time they're entering with stop orders half the time they're entering with limit orders
一条重要规则是，绝不要逆着强趋势做短线交易 One important rule is never scalp against a strong trend
处于强趋势中时，应只做顺势交易 If you're in a strong trend you should only be trading in the direction of the trend
波段交易刚开始时，你经常会失望，然后转而做短线交易 It's very common as a swing trade begins that you get disappointed and you'll scalp out
这种情况经常发生 That happens all the time
这是一个短线交易的例子 An example of a scalp
你看到一个双底形态和空头陷阱，是一个强烈的 You have a double bottom you have a bear trap a strong
反转信号，你在其上方买入，然后做短线交易退出 Reversal you buy above it and then you scalp out
这里在两个大Bull Bar后，可能会迎来第二段上涨 Here you're probably going to get a second leg up after two big bull bars
所以你可以在前一根Bar的低点或更低买入，然后做短线交易退出 And therefore you can buy at or below the low of the prior bar and then you scalp out
这里有一系列上涨的Bar，很多Bull Bar Here you have a series of bars trending up a lot of bull bars
第一次向下的反转可能只是小幅调整 The first reversal down probably will be minor
所以你可以在那根Bar的低点买入 So you can buy at the low of that bar
你会在这里成交 You get filled over here
价格涨到合适短线退出时，你就卖出 And then when it goes up enough for a scalp you scalp out
一个错误的买入信号Bar，是个嵌套楔形，123形态套在另一个123形态里，卖方可能在上方 A bad buy signal bar a nested wedge 123 inside of 123 probably seller is above
所以你可以在那根Bar的高点卖出，价格下跌时做短线交易退出 So you can sell at the high of that bar and when it goes down you scalp out
这里有一个嵌套楔形，这里有一个楔形，这里又有一个嵌套楔形 You got a nested wedge, a wedge here and a nested wedge here
你可以在那个阴线下方设置止损卖出，然后进行剥头皮操作 So you can sell with a stop below that bear bar and then scalp out
这里有六根连续的阴线，甚至七根连续的阴线 You have six consecutive bear bars, seven consecutive bear bars
首次向上的反转大概率只是小幅反弹 The first reversal up will probably be minor
你可以在那根K线的高点设置限价卖单 So you can sell with a limit order at the high of that bar
成交后在这里剥头皮获利出场 Get filled here and then scalp out
大多数交易者通过波段交易会赚更多钱，也会更开心 Most traders will make more money and be happier swing trading
但理解剥头皮很重要，因为60%的波段交易无法实现波段利润 But it's important to understand scalping because 60% of swing trades will fail to achieve a swing profit
你最终会通过剥头皮获得小幅盈利或小幅亏损 And you'll end up scalping out with a small profit or a small loss
当你等待波段交易时，如果看到好的剥头皮机会，完全没问题 And it's perfectly okay if you see good scalps while you're waiting for a swing trade to
大胆去做剥头皮吧。你可以用 Go ahead and take the scalps. You can enter with
止损单或限价单入场，通常用限价单获利了结 A stop order or a limit order and you'll usually take your profits with a limit order
这里有一个大跳空下跌。这是均线 We have a big gap down. Here's the moving average
所以是大跳空下跌后，价格反弹楔形冲击均线 So a big gap down and a wedge rally to the moving average
我会告诉你如何开始一笔波段交易 I'll show you how you can start a swing trade
这里、这里、这里有很多阴线 Lots of bear bars here, here, here
大阴线收盘接近低点 Big bear bars closing near the lows
你可以在那根阴线下方卖出，或者等待确认 You could sell below that bear bar or you could wait for confirmation
你可以等待两根阴线出现后再卖出 You can wait for two bear bars and then sell
然后进行剥头皮操作。最近的小规模剥头皮是五点 And then scalp out. In the A mini recently scalping has been five points
所以你在那根阴线下方一个点位卖出 So you sell one tick below that bear bar
然后你设置一个限价单，目标价位是在那根阴线下方21个点位 and you place a limit order to exit five points below 20 ticks below
价格需要下跌22个点位才能实现20点盈利 It'll have to fall 22 ticks below for you to make 20 ticks
你在一个点位下方卖出 You sell one tick below
你在那根阴线下方21个点位设置限价单 you place your limit order 21 ticks below the bar
价格通常要跌破你的限价单一个点位才能成交 It usually has to go one tick below your order for it to get filled
你面临一个潜在的交易区间 You've got a potential trading range
而且你在交易区间底部看到一根Bull Bar and you have a bull bar near the bottom of the range
这意味着在它下方买方可能多于卖方 Probably more buyers than sellers below it
所以你可以在这根Bar的低点挂限价买单 So you can buy with a limit order at the low of that bar
并且你会在那里被成交 and get filled right there
接着你在入场价上方5个点位挂限价单快速止盈 And then scalp out with a limit order five points above your entry price
任何交易的风险都不应超过你账户的一到两个百分比 You should not be risking more than one or two percent of your account on any trade
如果你的交易假设不成立了，就果断离场 If your premise is no longer reasonable then go ahead and exit
如果你做的是短线交易，要么在目标价位快速离场，要么一旦失望就马上退出 If you enter as a scalp exit quickly at the target or as soon as you are disappointed
切勿死撑，指望行情最终会朝你的方向发展 do not hold on hoping that it will eventually go your way
做短线时，既能操作小级别形态，也能玩大级别形态 When you're entering with scalps you can trade both minor patterns and major patterns
如果你的入场目的是快速获利 If you're entering for spendable
做波段交易时，你只盯着大级别形态 For swing trades you're looking for major patterns only
我通常把一天划分为三部分，有时甚至更多 I think of the day as having three parts so an average day sometimes more
你需要关注市场行为的变化 You're looking for changes in behavior
市场通常不会整天保持同一种行为 Usually the day will not have a single behavior that lasts all day
即便是非常强劲的牛市趋势或熊市趋势，通常也会出现一些交易区间 Even a really strong bull trend or a strong bear trend typically will have some trading
在盘中会有震荡交易 range trading during the day
所以你得紧盯市场行为的变化 So you've got to be looking for changes in market's behavior
并相应调整你的交易策略 and then change how you're trading
这里出现了强劲突破，你就按突破操作 Here you get a strong breakout so you trade it like a breakout
你买入两个收盘接近高点的牛市Bar，随后出现回调 You buy both bull bars closing near their highs Then you're getting pullbacks
因此你可能会从牛市突破转为牛市通道走势 So probably you're going to transition from a bull breakout into a bull channel
这是一个紧密的牛市通道，你可以继续买入收盘接近高点的牛市Bar It's a tight bull channel so you can continue to buy both bull bars closing near their highs
我还不会卖出 and I would not sell yet
现在进入了一个紧密的交易区间 Now you're entering a tight trading range
均线还有发挥的空间 There's room for the moving average
出现一根收盘价接近低点的空头Bar You have a bear bar closing near its low
我个人不会做空这根Bar I personally would not take that short
这是做空，但利润空间有限 It's short because there's not much profit potential
不过这里有个双顶，价格可能回调到这儿 but you've got a double top and it may pull back to here
也可能回调到那边 it may pull back to there
如果你做交易，就是在这根空头Bar收盘价以下卖出，收盘价接近低点，这是第二次下跌反转 If you do trade you're selling below that bear bar closing there Its low Second reversal down
这是第三次下跌反转 This is the third reversal down
价格连续跌破了那根Bar，又跌破了这根Bar，接着再次跌破了那根Bar It went below that bar, it went below this bar, it went below that bar
所以行情经历了一个突破信号，随后进入了一个紧密的多头趋势通道 So we went from a breakout sign of trading and then a tight bull channel
接着行情进入了一个紧密的交易区间 and now a tight trading range
随后，多头趋势恢复延续 and then later we have a resumption of the bull trend
不同的走势阶段需要采用不同的交易策略 and you trade each differently
平均每月会有两次持续整天的多头趋势出现 About twice a month you'll get a bull trend that lasts all day
这种多头趋势通常伴随着小幅回调，就像这样 and typically will be a small pullback bull trend like this
虽然这里行情大部分时间呈震荡横盘，持续数小时 So even though it was mostly sideways here for a couple of hours
但回调幅度仍然很小 it was still having only small pullbacks
所以这依然属于小幅回调的多头趋势 So it was still a small pullback bull trend
多头突破及趋势通道 Bull breakout and channel
大量的交易区间震荡交易 A lot of trading range trading
随后，临近收盘时行情尝试上涨恢复，但未成功 And then we had resumption up at the end of the day but it failed
价格反转下跌，回落至交易区间顶部 We reversed back down to the top of the trading range
开盘时出现了空头趋势 A bear trend from the open
平均每月会出现两次持续整天的空头趋势 About twice a month you'll have a bear trend that lasts all day
通常是带有小幅回调的空头趋势 and it will be a small pullback bear trend
这里表现出强势空头趋势，并伴随着较大的回调 Here we have a bear trend strong bear trend and a fairly big pullback
但随后回调多为小幅，以下又出现了一个较大的回调 But after this the pullbacks are mostly small. Here's another bigger pullback
这明显是一个小回调的空头趋势 And this is clearly a small pullback bear trend
这里市场基本上是在横盘整理 Here market was mostly sideways
出现了一次空头突破，随后进入交易区间 We had a bear breakout and a trading range
多头试图打造一个更高低点的双底形态 The bulls tried to get a higher low double bottom
他们尝试做一个更低低点的双底，但没有成功 They tried a lower low double bottom but they failed
我尝试了，但他们还是失败了 I available but they failed
所以出现了空头突破，以及一个更低高点的主要趋势反转 So a bear breakout, a lower high major trend reversal
或者是在均线上形成了更低高点的双顶空头旗形 Or a lower high double top bear flag at the moving average
形成了一个楔形反弹，触及均线 A wedge rally to the moving average
合理考虑在这里做空 Reasonable to look to sell
嗯，前面三个小时市场大部分时间都在横盘震荡 Well it was mostly sideways for the first three hours
之后进入了一个非常窄的空头趋势通道 And then it entered a very tight bear channel
所以这明显是一个带有小幅回调的空头趋势 So this is clearly a small pullback bear trend
多头可以在这里赚点钱，所以可以考虑买入 The bulls could make some money in here so you can buy in here
但当你清楚处于一个非常窄的空头通道，且回调幅度很小时 But once you are clearly in a very tight bear channel with very small pullbacks
你就应该只做空 You should only be selling
临近收盘出现了部分获利回吐，接着形成了一个双顶空头旗形，随后又下跌了一波 End of the day some profit taking and then a double top bear flag and one more leg down
市场很常见在几个小时内出现非常强劲的多头趋势 It's very common for the market to have a very strong bull trend for a couple of hours
然后进入一个狭窄的震荡区间 And then just enter a tight turning range
这里出现了很多反转，因此空头会选择做空 Here we had a lot of reversals so you will get bears shorting
但如果你卖了两次却赔钱了 But if you've sold twice and you've lost money
一般来说，除非市场行为有明显变化，否则第三次进场往往不划算 It's usually not worth taking the third time unless you have a significant change in behavior
如果你在同类型的价格行为上连续亏损两次，说明你可能看错了行情 If you've lost twice on the same type of price action you're probably reading it wrong
所以，市场确实正尝试从一个楔形结构反转 So yeah the market is trying to reverse from a wedge
但回调幅度很小，因此这也是一个小回调的Bull Trend But the pullbacks are also small so it's additionally a small pullback bull trend
所以基本上是一个弱势通道，走势横盘，但低点和高点不断抬升 So a weak channel basically sideways but higher lows higher highs
回调幅度非常小，空头根本没赚到钱 And the pullbacks are very small and the bears are not making money
随后加速向上，形成突破 And then it accelerated up into a breakout
随后转变为当天后半段的交易区间 And then converted into a trading range for the second half of the day
这三次交易的操作方式各不相同 And you'd trade differently all three times
开盘时呈空头趋势，随后进入交易区间 A bear trend from the open and then a trading range
多次卖出高潮令空头疲惫不堪，之后全天维持横盘 So a series of sell climaxes exhausted bears and then sideways for the rest of the day
多头尝试突破，但失败了 The bulls break out but it failed
Bar体积很小，带有显著的影线 The bars are small prominent tails
价格可能不会上涨太多 Probably not going to go up very far
市场往往先朝一个方向运行 The market often goes one way
然后到了中午，市场反向移动，形成中午反转 And then in the middle of the day it goes the opposite way so a midday reversal
这里出现一波反弹上涨，但回调幅度很小 Here's a rally going up but the pullbacks are small
所以这是一个小回调的Bull Trend So a small pullback bull trend
随后完全没有出现回调 And then no pullbacks at all
出现了极小的回调，现在进入了突破阶段 There's this tiny pullback so now it's in a breakout
接着出现疲惫买入高潮 And then exhausted buy climax
接着形成了一个双顶和交易区间 And then a double top and a trading range
随后在收盘时出现抛售 And then a sell-off into the close
针对不同的价格行为，你需要采用不同的交易策略 You trade each of those types of price action differently
你必须时刻留意市场变化，了解它当前的表现 You have to be aware when the market's changing what it's doing
并且要根据情况调整你的交易风格 And then you have to change your style of trading accordingly
经历了一波抛售，接着大约20根K线的横盘震荡，随后下跌 The sell-off but mostly sideways for about 20 bars and then lower
随后从楔形结构反转，出现了午间反转 And then a reversal off from a wedge, a midday reversal
接着出现了相当强劲的多头通道，基本是一次突破，这里还有更多突破 And then a fairly strong bull channel, basically a breakout, more breakout here
空头试图借助双顶形态实现下跌反转 The bears tried to reverse down from a double top
但多头阳线数量过多，且上涨通道过于紧密 But too many bull bars and the channel up is too tight
这大概只是一次小幅反转 It's probably a minor reversal
随后出现了交易区间和双底形态 And then we have a trading range and a double bottom
并且出现了漂亮的多头阳线 And good looking bull bars
因此看起来当天收盘时会出现上涨趋势的恢复 So it looks like you're going to get trend resumption up at the end of the day
市场很常见地在长时间内处于交易区间震荡 Very common for the market to be a trading range for a lot of hours
最终在收盘时出现了突破 And at the end of the day we had a breakout
基本上是从楔形反弹到双顶形态 Basically it's a wedge rally to a double top
尽管这里它依然基本处于交易区间内 And even though it was still pretty much in the trading range here
它同时也处于一个空头趋势里 It was also in a bear trend
所以是一次空头突破，随后价格沿通道下跌直到收盘 So a bear breakout and then channel down into the close
多头非常强劲，空头突破和通道也都十分有力 Very strong bull. Very strong bear breakout and channel
但价格并没有快速大幅下跌 But it really didn't fall very far very fast
因此，这整个过程其实也是在一个交易区间内进行的 So this whole thing is also a trading range
所以这是一个交易区间中的空头通道 So it's a bear channel in a trading range
多头出现了反转向上的微型双底形态 And the bulls got a reversal up micro double bottom
价格突破了空头通道下沿 A breakout below the bear channel
这里出现了足够的卖出高潮，随后是小幅第二段下跌和反转 So there's enough to sell climax, a small second leg down and a reversal
不过这次反转持续时间不长 But the reversal did not last very long
出现双顶形态后，趋势恢复下跌，直到收盘，形成了强劲的空头突破 You got a double top and then trend resumption down into the close, a strong bear breakout
随后晚盘出现获利回吐，价格回升到当天交易区间中段 And then late profit taking back up to the middle of the day's range
常见的买入入场形态 Common buy setups
提醒你关注两个要点 Reminder you're looking for two things
一个好的背景、形态以及支撑或阻力位 Good context, good patterns and support or resistance
还有一个好的信号K线 And a good signal bar
这些是你大多数时间会交易的常见形态 These are the common patterns that you'll be trading most of the time
买入形态中，你要寻找开盘时的强劲多头趋势 For the buy patterns you're looking for a strong bull trend from the open
你要寻找强劲的多头突破 You're looking for a strong bull breakout
你要找的是反转向上的空头突破，也就是失败的空头突破 You're looking for a bear breakout that reverses up, so a failed bear breakout
如果只有几根K线，那就是空头陷阱 If it's only a couple bars it's a bear trap
如果连续出现四到六根Bar后价格反转向上，这就是卖出高潮信号 If it's four five six bars and then reverses up it's a sell climax
双底楔形底部表现为一个交易区间，并伴有多头突破 Double bottom wedge bottom a trading range with a bull breakout
这是一个带有空头突破但失败后反转向上的交易区间 A trading range with a bear breakout that fails and reverses up
这些就是你常见的买入入场形态 So these are the common buy patterns that you'll be looking for
开盘时出现的强势突破，分别发生在三个不同的交易日 Strong breakout on the open three different days
如果只有一两根Bar，我称其为空头陷阱 In this case if it's only a bar or two I call it a bear trap
如果出现三到五根Bar，我称其为卖出高潮 If it's three four or five bars I call it a sell climax
开盘时的任何强势行情，有50%的概率走错方向 Any strong move on the open has a 50% chance of being in the wrong direction
接着价格会出现向上的反转 And you get a reversal up
但也有50%的概率行情方向正确，随后形成趋势 But you also have a 50% chance that it's the right direction and it will lead to a trend
所以当你看到开盘时大幅抛售时，关注价格向上的反转信号 So if you see a strong move on the open here big sell offs look for reversals up
此时寻找价格反转向上是合理的 And it's okay to look for a reversal up here
但如果你看到价格行情停顿，并呈现楔形形态 But if you see it stalling and it kind of looks like a wedge
就要准备趋势继续向下，并寻找卖出机会 Be prepared for trend resumption down and then look to sell
小规模的卖出高潮，我称为空头陷阱 A small sell climax I just call it a bear trap
大的空头陷阱，我称为卖出高潮 A big bear trap I call it a sell climax
随后会出现卖出高潮后的次级向上反转 And then you have a minor reversal up from a sell climax
再一次次级向上反转，随后空头趋势重新开始 Another minor reversal up and then the bear trend resumed
开盘后多头趋势中的小幅回调 Small pullback bull trend from the open
从开盘起，市场持续走高，但伴随着多次回调 Right from the open the market is working higher and it has a lot of pullbacks
回调幅度都很小 Well the pullbacks are all small
这是一种最强劲的多头趋势，往往能持续一整天 So this is one of the strongest types of bull trends that can last all day
我关注缺口和实体缺口 I'm looking for gaps and body gaps
所以出现了一次突破 So we have a breakout
我们突破了那个点位，随后出现回调 We broke out of that and we pulled back
这个低点并没有与那个高点重叠 And this low did not overlap that high
突破点和回调点没有重叠，形成了一个缺口。接着又出现了一次突破 The breakout point and the pullback no overlap So that's a gap We have another breakout
价格突破了这里的高点 It broke out above this
我在观察回调情况 I look at the pullbacks
这里看起来也可能有一个缺口 It looks like there might be a gap here as well
如果你看到两个缺口 If you have two gaps
在前几个小时内，如果出现一个缺口和一个实体缺口，再加上小幅回调的多头趋势 in the first couple of hours or one gap and one body gap and a small pullback bull trend
那么这段多头趋势很可能会持续一整天 the bull trend is probably going to last all day
这里出现了另一个缺口，随后回调跌破了突破点，但回调的实体并没有与突破点的最高收盘价重叠 So here's another gap And then here the pullback fell below the breakout point but the bodies do not overlap
所以回调的实体没有与突破点的最高收盘价重叠 So the body of the pullback did not overlap the highest close of the breakout point
这同样是多头强劲的一个信号 So that's also a sign of strong bulls
虽然不如真正的缺口强烈，但这也是多头强劲的表现 It's not as strong as an actual gap but it's a sign of strong bulls
如果你在一天开始时看到两个、三个甚至四个缺口和实体缺口 And if you're getting two three four gaps and body gaps early in the day
那么趋势很可能会持续一整天 the trend is probably going to last all day
所以最好只考虑买入操作 And it's better to only look to buy
所以这是一个非常关键的形态 So this is a very important pattern
这一天其实非常反常 Here this is actually a very unusual day
这次的低点没碰到均线 This low did not touch the moving average
它离均线只有一点点差距 It got to within a tick of the moving average
但还是没碰到均线 But it did not touch the moving average
事实上，市场全天都没碰到均线 In fact at no point during the day did the market touch the moving average
我已经做交易 And I've been trading now
我在交易界已经有五十年了 I'm in my fifth decade of trading
我从没见过有一天 And I do not ever remember seeing a day
市场那天完全没碰到均线 that did not touch the moving average
这无论是牛市还是熊市都一样 And that's true for a bull trend or a bear trend
所以这是我五十年来第一次见到 So this is the first day that I've seen in five decades
市场一天都没碰到均线，真是非常反常 where the market never touched the moving average So very unusual
再次提醒，你得有好的背景信息 Again you need good context
你需要一个好的信号K线 you need a good signal bar
你的调整已经结束，这里是均线 Your adjustment is closed here's the moving average
我们跌破缺口，低于均线很多 We broke down gap down far below the moving average
接着出现了一根很不错的Bull Bar We had a pretty good bull bar
然后又有一根Bull Bar And then we have another bull bar
Bull Bar收盘几乎在最高点 Bull bar closing near its high
阳线收盘接近高点 Bull bar closing near its high
所以出现了四五六根阳线 So four five six bull bars
所以从开盘开始是上涨趋势 So it's a bull trend from the open
这是一个合理的趋势，如果有大幅跳空下跌，你可以买入 That's a reasonable trend. You can either buy if there's a big gap down
并且有一根大阳线收盘接近高点 and a big bull bar closing near its high
你可以在第一根阳线之上买入 you can buy above the first bar
如果仓位较小，可以一路加仓 If you trade small you can add on along the way
市场可能在这里见顶 The market might be topping out of here
可能在均线附近和六点收盘价附近形成双顶 Possible double top around the moving average and around just six close
你总是可以在阳线收盘接近高点时再次买入 And you can always buy again above bull bars closing near their highs
这里我们看到了一波涨向均线的行情 Here we had a rally to the moving average
然后出现了一根强烈的阴线 And then a strong bearish
然后我们出现了突破 And then we had a breakout
但开盘时50%的强势走势会反转，这里也反转了 But 50% of strong moves on the open will reverse. And here we reversed
所以这是一个空头陷阱 So this was a bear trap
一个更高低点的双底和一个很好的买入信号K线 A higher low double bottom and a good buy signal bar
接着出现了一系列阳线 Then we had a series of bull bars
所以这是另一个非常重要的形态 So another really important pattern
开盘的空头陷阱，一个失败的空头突破，一个小的卖出高潮 A bear trap on the open. A failed bear breakout. A small sell climax
可能是一个大的卖出高潮 Could be a big sell climax
市场先是大幅抛售，随后又强势反弹上涨 But the market sold off strongly and then reversed up
开盘时出现更大规模的抛售，这里是开盘点 This is a bigger sell-off on the open. Here's the open
开盘时又出现了大规模抛售 And then a huge sell-off on the open
这是抛售高潮，也是一个大型空头陷阱 It's a sell climax. A big bear trap
这里出现了连续的内包线形态 And here we have consecutive inside bars
在高潮出现时，这种形态是常见的反转信号 And that's a common reversal pattern when you have climaxes
所以即使这是一根Bear Bar，你也可以在这根Bar之上买入 So you could buy above this bar even though it's a bear bar
你也可以选择在第二根内包线之上买入 If you want you could buy above the II
你可以在这两根Bar中较高的那根，也就是收盘价接近高点的Bull Bar之上买入 The higher of the two bars. You could buy above a bull bar closing near its high
当开盘时出现大幅下跌 And when you get these really big moves down on the open
市场若随后反转，通常会持续上涨一整天 And then the market reverses, it's pretty common for it to rally all day
如果开盘大幅抛售后全天反弹 But if you do get a big sell-off on the open and it rallies all day
通常不会涨过开盘高点太多，所以它会反弹 It usually will not get much above the high on the open. So it rallies
并且反弹持续了大约70根Bar And it rallies for a lot of bars, 70 bars
但通常不会大幅突破开盘价 But it usually does not get much above the open
如果它突破了开盘价 If it goes above the open
每个内包线形态都是一个双底，也就是微型双底 Every II pattern is a double bottom, a micro double bottom
这里表现为下-上-下，然后再上 Here down up down and then up
通常在更小的时间周期上呈现三角形形态 And it's usually a triangle on a smaller time frame
然后出现更高的低点，完成主要趋势的反转 Then we get a higher low major trend reversal
这里出现了第二次向上的反转，然后又在这里发生反转 And a second reversal up here and then here
所以你可以买入，抓住这波波段上涨的机会 So you could buy that for a swing up
所以今天是一个多头趋势反转日 So it's a bull trend reversal day
这里先是空头趋势，随后转为多头趋势 It was a bear trend and then a bull trend
这里出现了一个大跳空。这里是均线 Here we got a big gap up. Here's the moving average
所以这里是一个大跳空 So a big gap up
然后我们出现了一个楔形反弹 And then we had a wedge rally
这波反弹看起来力量不大 This does not look very strong
这里出现了很多阴线 We have a lot of bear bars
许多阳线都有影线 A lot of the bull bars have tails
所以这些看起来普通的Bar价格并没有明显高出平均价 So it's not saying that much above the average price for average looking bars. No
一般来说，最好等价格回落到均线附近，看看接下来会发生什么 So it's usually better to wait to see what happens when it gets down to the average price
然后寻找买入形态 And then look for a buy setup
一根阳线收于高位，形成一个微型双底结构，走势为下-上-下-上 A bull bar closing near its high. A micro double bottom. Down up down up
这里形成了一个更高低点的双底 And it's a higher low double bottom here
所以当前处于多头趋势 So we're in a bull trend
这里是当天的低点，随后出现回调 Here's the low of the day. A pullback
随后对这次回调进行了测试 And we tested that pullback
这里形成了均线附近的双底多头旗形 So this is a double bottom bull flag at the moving average
这里还有一个楔形 There is also a wedge
有些电脑会采用那个1 2 3模式 Either some computers will use that 1 2 3
另外一些电脑也会采用那个1 2 3模式 Others will use that 1 2 3
还有其他电脑会采用那个1 2 3模式 Others will use that 1 2 3
将三个腿部放置在楔形结构上 Put the three legs down on the wedge
于是楔形形态回落至均线位置，形成双底 So wedge sell off to a double bottom at the moving average
这里出现了一个很好的入场K线信号，非常适合买入 And a good buy signal bar That's a good buy
连续三根大Bull Bar收盘都靠近高点 Three big bull bars closing near their highs
这里两根大Bull Bar收盘价都高于均线 Two big bull bars here closing above the moving average
第二根K线的实体位置完全更高 The body of the second bar completely higher up
随后出现回调 And then we pull back
但注意这些低点 But look at these lows
这里突破了当天的新高点 This broke out to a new high of the day
所以这就是突破点 So this is the breakout point
回调价位保持在突破点之上 And the pullback stayed above it
这表明市场力量强劲 So that's a sign of strength
提升了价格继续上涨的概率 Increases the chances that we go higher
接下来看看这里发生了什么 And then look what takes place here
出现了大幅回调 We have a big pullback
价格跌破了突破点位 It fell below the breakout point
但回调K线的实体部分并未与突破点K线的实体重叠 But the body of the pullback bar does not overlap the body of the breakout point
所以这是一个实体缺口 So it's a body gap
所以这仍可能是一整天都会持续的趋势 So it's still a possible trend that could last all day
但接着我们看到了这个突破 But then we got this Here's the breakout
我们到底突破了什么？ What did we break out of
我们突破了这里和这里 Well we broke out of that and that
这就是突破时的最高收盘价 And here's the highest close of the breakout
然后注意看这个 And then look at this
这个收盘价低于那个收盘价 This close is below that close
因此，回调的收盘价低于突破时的收盘价 So the close of the pullback is below the close of the breakout
所以买入缺口被填补了 So the buy gap closed
这通常标志着牛市趋势的结束 And that's usually the end of the bull trend
虽然看起来不像楔形，但在更小的10根Bar图上，它确实是楔形 Doesn't look like a wedge but on a smaller 10 bar chart it is
走势反复上下波动，跌跌涨涨，起伏不断 Going down and up and down and up and down and up and down and up
随着价格走低，出现了大量反转，所以这是楔形 Lots and lots of reversals as we go lower So it's a wedge
你可以在这根小十字星上方买入吗？ Can you buy above this little doji bar
虽然可以，但更稳妥的做法是等一根收盘价接近高点的牛Bar出现后再买入 You can but it's higher probability to wait for a bull bar closing near its high and then buy there
所以这是一个楔形牛旗形态 So a wedge bull flag
牛市趋势就是这个跳空缺口，这里是均线，走势非常陡峭向上 The bull trend is the gap up Here's the moving average It's very steeply up
因此我们出现了一个巨大的跳空缺口 So we had a big big gap up
这是一波回调 And this is a pullback
所以这是一个楔形多头旗形 So it's a wedge bull flag
一次非常强烈的突破，随后形成了一个通道 Very strong breakout and then we had a channel
这里出现了嵌套楔形结构 And up here we had nested wedges
有多种画法 Different ways to draw it
这里有一根很大的Bear Bar，收盘价靠近最低点 And we have a very big bear bar closing near its low
连续几根Bear Bar收盘价都靠近最低点 We have consecutive bear bars closing near their lows
所以这里有买盘，但中午时分出现了合理的卖盘 So you had buys through here but then a reasonable sell in the middle of the day
又一个大缺口的例子 Another example of a big gap up
随后回调至均线位置 And then a pullback to the moving average
这里有一根Bull Bar，收盘价靠近最高点，形成一个楔形 And we have a bull bar closing near its high, a wedge
有不同的解读方式 Different ways to look at it
所以这是一个楔形通道，正在回调至均线 So it's a wedge channel pulling back to the moving average
Bull Bar收盘价靠近最高点 And we have bull bars closing near their highs
背景良好，均线支撑下的楔形形态 Good context, a wedge pattern at support of the moving average
一个好的信号K线 And a good signal bar
一根非常强劲的Bull Bar，但失败了 Very strong bull bar. It failed
现在出现了第二根非常强劲的Bull Bar Now we have a second very strong bull bar
所以多头很顽强，开始反攻 So the bulls are persistent. They're coming back
这提高了价格上涨的概率 It increases the chances that we'll go higher
大缺口之后，楔形回调到均线 Wedge pullback to the moving average after a big gap up
一个非常常见的Bull Trend起点 A very common start of a bull trend
出现了突破，我们成功站上了那个价位 We have a breakout. We broke above that. We broke above that.
这里有一点重叠 Here a little bit of an overlap
它在测试之前高点的支撑 So it's testing the support of a prior high
正在测试均线的支撑 It's testing the moving average
出现了一个小楔形 And we have a little wedge
你可以在那个价位以上买入 You can buy above that
但连续出现五根阴线后，最好在一根更大的阳线上方买入 But after five bear bars it's probably better to buy above a bigger bull bar
比如在这根阳线上方或更高位置买入 Like above that or above that
临近尾盘时进入交易区间 Late in the day entering a trading range
均线下方出现了一个楔形 We have a wedge below the moving average
但并未远离均线，出现了向上的外包线 But not much below the moving average. Outside up
这根Bull Bar收盘价接近最高点 Bull bar closing near its high
和这个低点一起构成了双底 Double bottom with this low
这是交易区间底部，合理的买入点 Bottom over the trading range. A reasonable buy
好的，这是一个楔形底部 Okay. This is a wedge bottom
你看着它会想，等等，这不是楔形，而是两次下探，一次，两次 You look at that and you say, Wait a minute. That's not a wedge. That's two pushes down. One, two
它下跌了两次，一次，两次 It went down twice. One and two
楔形要么是三次下跌推动，要么是三次反转上涨。这里我们是连续上涨，一，二，三 A wedge is either three pushes down or three reversals up. We went up. We went up. We went up
所以我会把它叫做楔形底部 So I would call that a wedge bottom
这里或这里出现了一个非常好的入场K线 A really good buy signal bar here or here
价格上涨至突破点，出现实体缺口，这里是最低收盘价，然后又到这里 We get up to the breakout point Body gap Here's the lowest close And then here
这个收盘价比那个收盘价要高 This close is above that close
因此，很多交易者会认为这是熊趋势的终结 So a lot of traders will see this as the end of the bear trend
实体缺口不再出现了 There's no more body gap
现在是在一个小幅回调的牛趋势里 We're in a small pullback bull trend
一个楔形下跌，测试突破点 A wedge sell off testing a breakout point
因此，在那个点或那个点上方买入较合理 So a reasonable buy above that or above that
整天都处于交易区间状态 The entire day was a trading range day
很多反转日是先跌后涨 And a lot of reversal days where it goes down it goes up
或者先涨后跌 Or if it goes up and then it goes down
我把它们看作是交易区间日 I think of them as trading range days
你知道市场先下跌后反弹，最终几乎收于开盘价附近 You know the market sold off it rallied and it finished just about where it opened
如果你愿意，也可以叫它反转日 So if you want you can call it a reversal day
但大多数反转日不会明显高过之前的高点 But most reversal days do not go much above the earlier high
所以我认为它还是交易区间日 So I think of it as a trading range day
这很罕见，区间非常窄，然后发生突破 This is unusual You have a really tight range And then a breakout
当区间非常窄，且低于平均日波动的一半时 When you have these really tight ranges where the range is less than half of an average day
突破的概率非常高 The odds are really high that you're going to get a breakout
且波动范围至少会翻倍 And the range will at least double
所以如果市场在中午过后，大约经过50根Bar So if the market after the middle of the day you're 50 bars or so
你依然处在一个非常紧凑的交易区间内 You're still in a really tight trading range
可以关注一根收盘价靠近低点的Bear Bar Look for a bear bar closing near its low
然后尝试做一次空头突破 And let's try to go bear breakout
或者关注一根收盘价靠近高点的Bull Bar，以及多头突破 Or you look for a bull bar closing near its high And a bull breakout
你希望交易区间恢复到一个平均交易日的范围 You're looking for the range to get back to that of an average day
这里的上涨幅度超过了平均水平 And here we got more than an average move up
有时，当交易区间非常紧凑时 Sometimes when you have these extremely tight trading ranges
往往会出现非常大的突破 You get very big breakouts
连续的Outside Bar，还有一根收盘价靠近高点的Bull Bar Consecutive outside bars A bull bar closing near its high
这是一个合理的买入入场形态 It's a reasonable buy setup
你可以等待连续几根收盘价靠近高点的强势Bull Bar Where you could wait for consecutive big bull bars closing near their highs
这是另一种非常常见的模式 This is another really common pattern
市场在交易区间内横盘了40到50根Bar，这就是一个典型的交易区间日 Where the market has been in a trading range for 40 or 50 bars Trading range day
接着会出现一次非常强劲的突破，这次是向下突破。但大多数突破都会失败 And then you get a really strong breakout In this case down Most breakouts fail
所以当你看到一根收盘价靠近高点的Bull Bar So if you get a bull bar closing near its high
这是一个合理的买入机会，赌突破会失败 It's a reasonable buy betting on a failed breakout
同时赌市场会回到交易区间的中部 And betting the market will get back to the middle of the range
或者回到交易区间的顶部 Or the top of the range
这里的形势看起来非常看空 It looks very bearish here
没有突破当天中段位置 Did not break to the middle of the day
出现一根收盘价接近高点的阳线 And we have a bull bar closing near its high
这很可能只是一次卖出高潮、假突破或空头陷阱，被堵死了，随你怎么说 This is probably just a sell climax, a failed breakout, a bear trap, clogged, whatever you want
但你可以针对第一波或第二波空头操作 But you're viable for either the first or second bear
或者出现一根收盘价接近高点的阳线 Or a bull bar closing near the high
期待一波上涨走势 Looking for a swing up
这就是一次崩盘 So this is a collapse
测试当天低点 Testing the low of the day
市场守住当天低点并反转向上 And the market held above the low of the day and reversed up
这对多头来说是利好 So that's good for the bulls
常见卖出入场形态 Common sell setups
同样，你需要好的形态 Again, you need good contracts
形态指的是图形结构、支撑和阻力 Contracts means patterns, support and resistance
如果你打算卖出，就要寻找阻力位 And if you're looking to sell, you're looking for resistance
形态随时可能出现 Patterns can come any time of the day
但尤其适合在开盘时寻找 But it's especially good to look for them on the open
恰恰相反，最常见的卖出形态与买入形态相反 It's the opposite. The most common sell patterns are the opposite of the buy pattern
所以你要在开盘时寻找强烈的空头趋势 So you're looking for a strong bear trend on the open
你在寻找空头突破 You're looking for a bear breakout
小回调，空头趋势，空头突破 A small pullback, bear trend, a bear breakout
一个多头突破后反转下跌，这就是多头陷阱或买入高潮 A bull breakout that reverses down. So a bull trap or a buy climax.
买入高潮就是持续超过两三根Bar的多头陷阱 A buy climax is just a bull trap that lasts more than two or three bars.
你要关注的是双顶、楔形顶部，以及交易区间这些形态 You're looking for a double top, a wedge top, a trading range.
接着是空头突破，或者交易区间里多头突破失败后反转下跌 And then a bear breakout, or a trading range that has a bull breakout that fails and reverses down.
这些是你最常遇到并交易的形态 These are the most common patterns that you'll be trading.
在开盘时 On the open.
不管行情多强烈地上涨或下跌，有一半的概率方向是反的 No matter how strong the move up or down is, 50% of the time it's the wrong way.
这里有三个开盘时强劲反弹的实例 Here are three examples of strong rallies on the open.
这里从几根Bar的上涨开始，随后反转下跌 Here we went up from a couple bars, reversed down.
如果上涨只有一两根Bar就反转下跌，我称之为多头陷阱 If it goes up for one or two bars and reverses down, I call it a bull trap.
如果上涨持续三四根Bar甚至更多 If it goes up for three or four bars or more,
然后反转下跌，我称之为买入高潮 and then reverses down, I call it a buy climax.
这里连续上涨了很多根Bar，而且一直保持上涨 Here it went up for a lot of bars, and it just kept going up.
开盘时任何强劲的走势都有一半概率会反转 50% of the time, any strong move on the open will reverse.
这里有两个反转下跌的反弹案例 So here are two examples of rallies that reverse.
另一半时间则会继续上涨 And 50% of the time it will continue.
这是一个持续反弹上涨的实例 Here's an example of a rally that continued.
99根Bar 99 of bars.
我们来谈谈日线图上的阴线，它们顶部至少会有一条小影线 Let's talk about bear bars on the daily chart. They will have at least a small tail on the top
它们在日线图上的顶部至少带有一条小影线 of the bar on the daily chart.
通常这是由开盘时的小幅反弹引起的 Usually it's caused by a small rally on the open
所以，看这一天的日线图，这里是开盘价，那里是最高价 So if you look at this day on the daily chart here is the open and here is the high
这根Bar的顶部有一条上影线 So there was a tail on the top of the bar
通常这是由开盘时的反弹和随后向下的反转引起的 And it's usually caused by a rally on the open and a reversal down
主要的是，高潮中的Bar越多 Major The more bars in the big climax
你就越可能需要至少某种形式的双顶形态，之后才会下跌 the more likely you'll need at least some kind of a double top before it'll go down
小的反转是一根或几根Bar，然后我们看到一个微型双底，接着出现更多的多头Bar Minor reversals one bar couple bars and then we have a micro double bottom and we have more bull bars
从开盘开始的强Bear Trend，通常指的是小幅回调的Bear Trend A strong bear trend from the open usually we're talking about a small pullback bear trend
每一次回调都很小，有很多Bar，看起来并不十分Bearish Every pullback is small a lot of bars they don't look very bearish
很多Bar的实体很小，有些还有下影线 A lot of them have small bodies some have tails below
你会看到很多多头Bar，但市场依然持续下行，所有的回调都很小 You have a lot of bull bars yet the market keeps working lower and all the pullbacks are small
即使市场横盘震荡10根Bar Even if the market goes sideways for 10 bars
回调的顶部也不会远高于Bear Trend的底部 the top of the pullback is not far above the bottom of the bear trend
所以对于小幅回调的Bear Trend，你要寻找实体间的缺口 So small pullback bear trends you're looking for gaps in body gaps
我们看到一个突破，向左看，它突破了那个位置，这里有一个回调 We have a breakout look to the left it broke out of that and here's a pullback
这个回调与突破部分重叠了 The pullback overlapped the breakout
回调和突破之间没有实际的缺口，但它们的实体之间有缺口 There's no actual gap between the pullback and the breakout but there's a gap between the bodies
这里是一个突破，接着小回调，然后又是小突破和回调 So it's a body gap and here a breakout a little pullback a little breakout pullback
所以我们一路看到缺口和实体缺口 So we're getting gaps and body gaps all the way down
在经历了几次这样的情况后，行情很可能会整天呈现下跌趋势 And after you've had a couple of them you're probably going to trend down all day
出现两到三个早期缺口或实体缺口后，60%可能会出现短暂回调 60% chance after two or three early gaps or body gaps you're going to be in a small pullback
你整天都会处于回调的熊市趋势中 You're going to be in a pullback bear trend all day
在5分钟图上，你会看到很多多头阳线 On the 5 minute chart you get a lot of bull bars
但在30分钟的更高时间框架上，全部都是空头阴线和十字星 But if you look at a higher timeframe like the 30 minute chart it's all bear bars and dojis
这是一个非常紧凑的微型通道，每个高点都不超过该Bar的高点 It's a very tight microchannel every high at or below the high of the bar
因此30分钟图上没有回调，呈现出非常强劲的空头趋势 So no pullbacks on the 30 minute chart Very strong bear trend
价格突破了昨天的高点，随后大幅反转下跌，交易者开始抛售 We went above yesterday's high Big reversal down Traders will sell
开盘时出现了强烈的空头突破 We have a strong bear breakout on the open
价格大部分时间处于横盘状态，但整体仍属于空头通道 Mostly sideways for most of the day but it's also a bear channel
开盘时迎来了大幅空头突破 You got a big bear breakout on the open
多头试图反转行情，但反转力度很弱，随后又再次尝试 The bulls tried to reverse A weak reversal And they tried again
价格形成了连续的两个更低高点和一个更低低点 We have a lower high a lower high and we have a lower low
因此，这看起来是一个空头通道 So it looks like a bear channel
所以先是强烈的空头突破，随后进入熊市趋势 So a strong bear breakout and then a bear trend
当这里出现特别大的Bar，尤其是特别大的空头阴线，并且随后出现跟随K线时 When you have these exceptionally big bars here an exceptionally big bear bar and especially once you have follow-through
大概率不会出现反转向上进入多头趋势 chances are you're not going to get a reversal up into a bull trend
所以它要么是熊市趋势，要么是在交易区间中的熊市趋势 So it's either going to be a bear trend or it'll be a bear trend in the trading range
连续出现八根空头阴线，多头试图反转行情向上 Eight consecutive bear bars The bulls are trying to get a reversal up
但这里的多头阳线都很小 But the bull bars here are small
第一次反转向上幅度较弱 The first reversal up is minor
最终形成一个较低高点的双顶形态，随后全天价格都在下行通道内运行 Ends up a lower high double top and we're just channeled down for the rest of the day
当卖压如此之大时，市场变成上涨趋势的概率很小 When you have that much selling the odds of the market becoming a bull trend are small
大约只有20%到30%的概率 Maybe 20 or 30 percent
这是一个空头突破的交易区间 A bear breakout A trading range
多头试图形成一个楔形，三次反转向上 The bulls tried to get a wedge Three reversals up
一、二、三次反转，伴随着一个非常好的买入信号K线 One two and three with a really good buy signal bar
所以买入是合理的，但反弹失败，涨势疲软 So it's reasonable to take that buy but then we're failing The rally is weak
这是一个楔形反弹，形成了较低高点的双顶 It's a wedge rally to a lower high double top
价格在均线处受阻，出现了阴线 Failing at the moving average We're getting bear bars
收盘价接近最低点，且位于均线下方 Closing near the lows and below the moving average
因此卖出，等待趋势恢复下行 So you sell for trend resumption down
很常见的是先大幅抛售，然后进入两个小时或更长时间的交易区间 Very common to get a big sell off and then a trading range for two hours or more
之后市场决定是反转向上还是继续下跌 And then the market decides whether to reverse up or resume down
这里这些K线对寻求趋势继续下跌的空头来说是好信号 And here these bars are good bars for bears looking for resumption down
大阴线收盘价接近最低点，且收于均线下方 Big bear bars closing near their lows and closing below the moving average
出现了一个较低高点 And we have a lower high
假设偏离了五美元 Off money let's say five dollars
多头试图形成一个楔形反弹 Bulls trying to get a wedge rally
他们试图形成一个较低低点的双底 They're trying to get a lower low double bottom
他们试图做一个头肩底，但都失败了 They trying to get a head and shoulders bottom all failed
阴线收盘靠近最低点 Bear bars closing near their lows
所以如果你在这里买入，我建议不要这么做 So if you did buy here I would not
这根阴线很小，反弹力度很弱 This is a small bar it's a weak rally
但如果你买了，就得在阴线高点开始做空 But if you did buy you got to get up low with bear bar and you got to start shorting
无论是连续两三根阴线后的第一根阴线 Either the first bear bar after two or three bear bars
一个失败的头肩底形态 A failed head and shoulders bottom
强劲反弹，多头跟随线出现，价格站上均线 Strong rally and bull follow-through and we're above the moving average
开盘可能出现多头转势，但很快反转下跌 Maybe a bull turn from the open but we reverse down
随后第二次向下反转出现 And then we have a second reversal down
因此这里做空很合适，可以等待阴线收盘确认 So reasonable to short where you could wait for a bear bar closing there
阴线收盘价像这里一样低，再做空 It's low like here and then short
或者你也可以等待接近日内低点的突破 Or you could wait for a breakout too near the low of the day
阴线收盘价靠近低点，再做空 And the bear bar closing there is low and then short
随后形成了非常强的小幅回调熊市趋势 And it became a very strong small pullback bear trend
接着这里出现了较弱的熊市趋势 And then a weaker bear trend here
所以你要关注开盘时的买入高潮 So you're looking for a buy climax on the open
或者关注开盘时出现的强势反转下跌 Or you're looking for a strong move on the open that reverses down
可能是个多头陷阱，也可以叫做小型买入高潮 A bull trap or you could call it a small buy climax
有一半时间，开盘的强势走势方向是错的 50% of the time any strong move on the open it's the wrong direction
接着就会出现反转 And you're gonna get a reversal
开盘时出现非常强劲的Bull Trend，但有50%的强势开盘Bull Trend会反转 Very strong bull trend on the open but 50% of strong trends on the open reversed
这里开始出现回调 And here we started the pullback
可以稍微回撤一下 You can pull back a little bit
这可以称为抛物线楔形 You can call this a parabolic wedge
这里至少有三次向上推动，伴随着几次停顿 There are at least three pushes up one pause two pause three pause four pause
也可以称之为抛物线楔形，而这里则是假突破该抛物线楔形 Or you can call this a parabolic wedge and this a failed breakout above that parabolic wedge
无论如何，市场正在横盘 In any case the market is going sideways
这里更可能是继续Bull Trend And here it's more likely we're going to resume up
但一旦回调持续了10根或20根Bar But once you've pulled back for 10 bars or 20 bars
你得开始怀疑这回调是不是无止境的 You've got to be thinking that the pullback is endless
如果回调无尽，你得准备可能的Bear Breakout An endless pullback you've got to get ready for a possible bear breakout
如果回调持续了10或20根Bar，并形成了一个窄的Bear Channel So if you have an endless pullback 10 or 20 bars and a tight bear channel
然后出现突破，就是做空机会 And then you get a breakout it's a short
这很可能会变成Bear Trend It's probably going to be a bear trend
你要找几根收盘价接近低点的Bear Bar So you're looking for a couple bear bars closing near their lows
最好是较大的Bear Bar，收盘价靠近低点且低于Moving Average Closing below the moving average preferably bigger bear bars closing near their lows
收盘价低于Moving Average Closing below the moving average
Bear Bar实体完全在Moving Average以下 Bear bodies completely below the moving average
所以你会在这里某处做空，赌市场进入Bear Trend So somewhere in here you'd be shorting betting that we're breaking into a bear trend
随后我们下跌了大约一个测量移动的距离 And we fell for about a measured move down
这里发生了一个大突破 We got a big big breakout here
不到10根Bar的时间，就完全逆转了之前的走势 It didn't take long about 10 bars to totally reverse all the earlier trading
所以在一个非常强劲的Bear Trend中出现这样的突破，伴随着小幅回调 So when you get a breakout like that in a very strong bear trend small pullback bear trend
你往往会触及一个看似遥不可及的支撑位 you often will reach a support level that seems too far down to reach
这里的移动幅度是根据整个楔形通道的高度来测量的 In this case the measure moved down based upon the height of the entire wedge channel
这是个非常常见的形态，下面是均线 Very common pattern here Here's the moving average
我们第二次向下反转 We're reversing down reversing down a second time
这根Bear Bar收盘价靠近最低点，形成了一个较低的高点和双顶，适合做空 The bear bar closing near its low so we're lower high double top okay short
很多时候，市场会先下跌，然后横盘整理 And a lot of times the market will sell off and then just go sideways
市场横盘20根Bar后，交易者会等待看是多头突破还是空头突破 And then once it goes sideways for 20 bars traders look for either a bull breakout or a bear breakout
或者继续保持横盘走势 or for it to just stay sideways
整个过程基本上是从这根Bull Bar开始的一个交易区间 And this whole thing was basically a trading range from this bull bar
所以先是一个强烈的Bear突破，然后是交易区间震荡 So a strong bear breakout and then a trading range
行情大幅反弹，突破了之前的低点，但随后陷入停滞 Very strong rally It went above the earlier low but it stalled
于是这变成了一个巨大的多头陷阱 So it just became a big bull trap
这里我们来看看这个 Here we'll look at this
我们这里有一个低点，均线，还有一个更高的高点双顶 We have a low the moving average and we have a higher high double top
一个顶和两个顶，形成了更高的高点双顶 One top and two tops so higher high double top
这是一个多头陷阱，一根大Bull Bar，卖出的人比买入的人多 A bull trap a big bull bar and more traders sold it than bought it
你可以从下一根Bear Bar收盘价接近最低点看出来 And you know that because the next bar was a bear bar closing near its low
所以这就是多头陷阱的合理卖点，接下来可能进入空头趋势 So that's a reasonable sell for a bull trap and then a possible bear trend
你可以看到回调几乎没有，或者很小，稍微高于这里的这根Bar You can see the pullbacks are nonexistent or small a little bit above that bar here
所以这是一个小幅回调的空头趋势 So a small pullback bear trend
但主要趋势是看涨的，下一段上涨更高，任何靠近均线的地方 But the primary or first trend if the bullish on next dollar is higher anything that gets near the moving average
你甚至可以卖出那些收盘价靠近均线的Bull Bar You can even sell the close of bull bars near the moving average
大多数交易者会卖出那些收盘价靠近低点、从均线向下转头的Bear Bar Most traders would look to sell low bear bars closing near the lows turning down from the moving average
这是交易这类形态最简单的方法 That's the simplest way to trade this
这是个楔形顶吗？ Is this a wedge top
是的，这是楔形顶部和双顶 Yes it's a wedge top The double top
是的，这就是双顶 Yes it's a double top
开盘强势反弹 It's a strong rally on the open
所以我会买入收盘反弹，但之后就出现了那个情况 So I'll buy the closed rally but then you get that
所以如果买了，我会在那个点下方止损出场 So if you did buy I'd get out below that
然后一旦出现两次向下反转，伴随着大阴线收盘靠近低点，就是做空信号 And then once we did this two reversals down with big bear bars closing near the lows it's short
这在均线附近形成双顶，同时也是一个楔形 It's a double top at the moving average It's also a wedge
连续三次向下反转，一次接一次 Three reversals down down down down
看起来不像楔形，但它是一种楔形 Doesn't look like a wedge but it's a type of wedge
这里也是一个双顶，那里又是另一个双顶 It's also a double top around here and then another double top here
而且完全没有回调 And then no pullbacks at all
我们处于微型通道，回调很小 We are microchannel small pullbacks
这开始演变成一个小幅回调 It was becoming a small pullback
当天收盘时形成了一个楔形反弹 End of the day a wedge rally
经历了一波耗尽性卖出高潮的第二段下跌，随后出现了很好的反转K线 Exhaustive sell climax second leg down and then good reversal bars
从开盘一路反弹到收盘，结果成了一个多头陷阱，也就是买入高潮 By the close rally on the open it turned out to be a bull trap or a buy climax
有些计算机系统会把它识别为双顶 Some computers will call it a double top
而另一些计算机系统则认为这是楔形反弹 Other computers will say it's a wedge rally
这是一个非常常见的形态，出现了一个大幅跳空向下。这里显示的是均线 This is a very common pattern A big gap down Here's the moving average
价格远远低于均线 We're way below the moving average
空头试图继续卖出 The bears tried to sell off
但出现了太多带下影线的K线，还有一根大阳线 But too many lower tails bars and a big bull bar here
没人愿意在远低于均价的地方卖出 Nobody wants to sell this far below the average price
除非这些K线比平均情况更偏空，但这些并不是 Unless the bars are far more bearish than average These are not
所以没人愿意卖出 So nobody wants to sell
他们想在更高的价位卖出，而你也会看到这种情况 They want to sell higher And you get that
接着是第二波上涨 And then a second push up
这里出现了一根收盘价很低的大阴线 A big bear bar closing here is low
这里出现了一根收盘价很低的大阴线 Big bear bar closing here is low
所以你可以把它称为均线上的更高高点双顶 So you can call it a higher high double top at the moving average
你也可以把它看作是三次向下反转加上到均线的楔形反弹 You can call it three reversals down and a wedge rally to the moving average
所以行情并不是非常强烈的空头 And so not very strongly bearish
这里在均线上形成了一个双顶 Here we got a double top at the moving average
这里出现了一个双底和楔形底 And so and here you got a double bottom and wedge bottom
不同的交易软件对这个形态的识别会有所不同 One two three different computers will see this differently
出现了一个卖出攀升的额外楔形底 A sell climb extra wedge bottom
经过六七根空头Bar后，可能出现一个小幅反转 After six seven bear bars probably a minor reversal
这里、这里和这里都出现了不好的买入信号K线 A bad buy signal bar here here and then here a bad buy signal bar
最后出现了一个多头标记K线，收盘价接近高点 And then finally a bull mark closing near its high
所以这会是一个更好的买入信号 So that would be a better buy
头肩底形态：左肩、头部、右肩，形成更高的低点，代表主要反转 Head and shoulders bottom left shoulder head right shoulder higher low major fender reversal
出现不好的买入信号K线，接着三根空头Bar，随后两根好的涨势Bar Bad buy signal bar three bear bars good bull bar and then a second good bull bar
所以这就是最终的买入信号 So that's a buy at the end of the day
不同角度看，这既是楔形底，也是更低的双底 Different ways to look at that is a wedge bottom and a lower low double bottom
现在相比之前的低点，出现了一个更高的低点 And then now we have a higher low compared to that low
相较于那个低点，这是一个更低的低点 And it's a lower low compared to that low
因此形成了一个更低的低点双底，是一次主要的转折反转 So it's a lower low double bottom major turn reversal
这是一根漂亮的涨势Bar，买入点可设在该Bar之上 Good looking bull bar good to buy above that bar
又出现一个楔形反弹，触及均线 Another wedge rally to the moving average
你可以准备卖出，等待反转下跌 And you're looking to sell a reversal down
当前价格处于均线下方 We're below the moving average
我们先上涨，然后回调 We push up we pull back
我们先推高，再回落，然后再次推高，形成了三波反弹 We push up we pull back we push up So three rallies
接着出现了收盘价接近低点的阴线 And then bear bars closing near the lows
因此你会在这些阴线下方卖出，期望价格下跌 So you'd sell below any of those bars hoping for a swing down
价格以楔形结构反弹至均线位置 Wedge rally to the moving average
通常情况下，遇到楔形顶部时，预期会出现两段下跌行情 A lot of times if you have a wedge top you expect two legs down
第一段下跌后的回调往往是隐蔽肩止损的右肩 And the pullback from the first leg down is often the right shoulder of a hidden shoulder stop
价格突破了当天的新低点 Breakout to new low of the day
多头试图从更低的双底位置反转上涨 The bulls trying to reverse from a lower low double bottom
但出现了太多的大阴线，买盘寥寥，空头趋势恢复了 But too many big bear bars not many buyers and the bear trend resumed
价格下跌达到了底部测量目标 And we fell for a bottom measure move
多头正在尝试形成双底 So the bulls are trying to get a double bottom
他们想突破颈线，即两个底部之间的最高点 They wanted to break out above the neckline the highest point between the two bottoms
他们想要一个可测量的上涨走势 And they wanted a measurable move up
结果我们跌破了双底，出现了可测量的下跌走势，非常常见 Instead we broke below the double bottom and we got a measurable move down Very common
如果你认为市场可能会有可测量的上涨走势 If you're thinking about the market might get may have a measurable move up
一定要意识到也可能有可测量的下跌走势 Always be aware that it could also have a measurable move down
交易者不喜欢承担超过收益的风险 Traders don't like to risk more than their reward
所以如果你在这里卖出，风险就在上方，你希望在这里附近获利了结 So if you're selling down here your risk is up here so you're looking to take profits around
你不希望风险大于收益 You don't want the risk greater than the reward
所以你会选择在差不多那个距离上获利了结 So you're going to look to take profits around that same distance
所以这是一个可量化的下跌走势 So a measurable move down
当天是交易区间日，我们即将迎来突破 Trading Range day and we're going to break out
出现了一个更低的高点 We have a lower high
接着又出现了另一个更低的高点 And we have another lower high
这说明市场可能正处于早期的Bear Trend So that's warning you that the market might be in an early Bear Trend
现在出现了两根大的Bear Bar，它们的收盘价都接近低点，并且低于均线 And now we have two big Bear Bars closing near the lows and below the Moving Average
第二根Bar的实体完全在均线下方 And the body of the second Bar is completely below the Moving Average
所以这里我认为，虽然还在交易区间，但有60%的概率已经进入了Bear Trend So here I would say 60% chance we're in a Bear Trend even though we're still in the Trading Range
这里的情况也是如此 Then the same thing here
连续的Bear Bar跌破了交易区间的底部 Consecutive Bear Bars breaking below the bottom of the range
这两根Bear Bar的收盘价都低于低点 Both Bear Bars closing below the low
第二根Bar的实体完全低于低点 And the body of the second Bar completely below the low
所以有60%的概率接下来会出现一波下跌的波段走势 So that is a 60% chance we are going to get a swing down
多头们本指望这根不错的Signal Bar会带来反转 The Bulls were hoping this good Signal Bar was going to lead to a reversal
做空的话，退出是合理的，因为有时候会出现交易区间 It's reasonable if you are short to exit because sometimes you will have a Trading Range
出现强烈的Bear Breakout后，可能会有Bull Bar和随之而来的反转向上 a strong Bear Breakout a Bull Bar and a reversal up
所以做空时退出是合理的，但如果你这么做 So if you are short it's reasonable to exit but if you do
你只需等待下一根Bear Bar收盘价接近低点，然后再卖出 you just wait for the next Bear Bar closing near its low and then you sell again
这里我们又根据交易区间的高度下跌了一个可量化的距离 And here we fell for about a measurable move based upon the height of the range
空头在达到预期的下跌幅度时获利了结是非常常见的 Very common for bears to take profits around a measured move down
今天市场处于交易区间，并出现了相当不错的多头突破 We have a trading range today and a pretty good bull breakout
但今天我们也创出了新高 But we also broke to a new high today
但我们没有连续出现多头K线 But we could not get consecutive bull bars
反而出现了一根收盘价接近最低点的阴线 Instead we got a bear bar closing near its low
如果你因为上述原因做多，这里不仅有一个很好的买入信号K线 If you are long for any reason like above that here you not only have a good buy signal bar
你可能会选择平仓多头头寸 You may exit your longs
但你会做空，赌一个假突破，可能会测试交易区间的底部 But you go short betting on a failed breakout and maybe a test of the bottom of the trading range
我一开始讲了赚钱的问题，然后介绍了研讨会的目标 I began by talking about making money and then I talked about the goals of the workshop
大多数交易者应该交易的时间框架是五分钟图或十五分钟图 The time frames most traders should be trading are a five-minute chart or 15-minute chart
基本形态包括：双顶、双底、楔形顶部、楔形底部、多头突破、空头突破 Basic patterns: double tops, double bottoms, wedge tops, wedge bottoms, bull breakouts, bear breakouts
波段交易：大多数交易者应该专注于波段交易 Swing trading: Most traders should focus on swing trading
虽然相比剥头皮，波段交易的机会并不多 Although there are not that many swing trades compared to scalping
以剥头皮为生：如果你按照Ali教授的方法去做，我认为你可以做到 Scalping for a living: If you do the things that Ali teaches I think you can do it
大多数交易者最终会成为波段交易者 Most traders will end up being swing traders
寻找波段交易机会，但实际上只有40%的波段交易能真正成为波段交易 Looking for swing trades but only 40% of swing trades actually become swing trades
因此你会进行剥头皮交易，所以在一天中的部分时间段进行剥头皮交易很重要 So you'll be scalping out and therefore it's important to scalp parts of the day
大多数日子里，价格行为不会整天只有单一类型 Most days do not have a single type of price action all day
所以你必须学会识别模式变化的时机，然后调整你的交易风格 So you have to learn to recognize when the pattern is changing and then change your style of trading
我谈到了常见的买入形态和卖出形态 I talked about common buy setups and common sell setups
希望你觉得这次内容有用，感谢你参加我们在 I hope you found this useful and I thank you for attending our live trading workshop in
2024年6月在奥兰多举办的现场交易研讨会 Orlando in June of 2024
我是Al Brooks，再次感谢你的观看 I'm Al Brooks again thank you for watching