好 早上好 现在 欢迎来到私人通道交易室 Okay, good morning. Now, welcome to the intervening private access trading room.
如果你能做一个快速的声音检查 举起你的手 让我知道你听清楚了 Bob Whitesman If you could do a quick sound check by raising your hand to let me know that you're hearing me loud and clear.
希望大家周末愉快 Hope everybody had a nice weekend.
同时也欢迎马克·里奇来参加下一个我们来测试一下 And also want to welcome Mark Richie into the next So let's test out.
马克 呃 是麦克风 马克 早上好 早上好 鲍勃 Mark. Uh, is microphone. Mark. Good morning, morning, bob.
早上马克 好了 请举手让我们知道你在听 Morning Mark. All right, if you could just raise your hand letting us know that you're hearing.
也可以 最后 我们将从MarkBenervini开始 交给他 Marked ok as well. And finally, we'll get started with Mark Benervini and hand it off to him.
马克早上好 你们能听到吗 Mark Good morning. Can you guys hear me?
好吧 好吧 你能听到我说话 鲍勃 Okay. Okay. You can hear me, bob.
马克 好吧 很好 已经 只是看看这里的市场 Mark. Okay. Good. Already, just taking a look at the market here.
当然 我们失败了 04 33 今天是有趣的一天 因为我们要看一看弧形的乐趣它实际上上升了 现在上升了好吧 现在上升了2% Of course, we're down. 04:33. It's an interesting day, because we have to take a look at the, uh, the arc fun it's actually up, oh, now it's up well, okay, it's up 2% right now.
所以你可以看到在我们旋转的时候有一些底部的捕鱼活动 嗯 石油的名字 和那些引领着 如果你愿意的话 周期性的名字 So you're seeing that there's some bottom fishing going on while we're rotating out of, uh, the oil names, and the names that were leading, if you will, the cyclical names.
这就是自然规律 这就是我一直在说的 你知道 当然 你也要记下来 And this is the nature, this is what I've been talking about, where, you know, and of course, mark you too.
我们对这些愤世嫉俗的名字没有那么多的信心来做出世俗的举动 因为 当然 他们是周期性的 And we don't have that much faith as, uh, in these cynical names to make secular moves, because, of course, they're ccyclical.
也许这次不一样 And maybe it's different this time.
你知道 我们经常听到这样的说法 但最重要的是 有很多严重的旋转 当你最终进入一个领域 开始工作 你看到这个趋势 它倾向于逆转 并转向其他地方 You know, we hear that a lot, but the bottom line is is that there's a lot of heavy rotation, and when you finally get on to an area that starts to work, and and you see that trend, it tends to reverse and go somewhere else.
这只是啤酒市场的本质和本质的修正 在那里 你知道的 同样 你可以盯住低 并试着权衡低点 你都这波动嗯直到你美元在一个简单的环境 和交易工作 呃 从皮疹 你的处境 呃 作为一个低风险的贸易商 这是一个非常 非常困难的 呃 市场 呃 紧紧抓住一些东西 和一个特定的群体 或甚至个股 比如XL 这里不会出现 And that's just the nature of a beer market and the nature of of corrections, where, you know, again, you can peg the low and and try to trade off the lows, and you have all this volatility um until you're in an easy dollar environment, and trades are working, uh, from breakouts, you're in a situation where, uh, as a low risk trader, it's a very, uh, very difficult, uh, market, to, uh, to grab a hold of something, and and a particular group, or or even individual stocks here, something like the XL, which is not coming up here.
我不知道为什么 好吧 停止工作 I don't know why. Um, okay, charge out working.
很抱歉 让我们看看发生了什么 Sorry about that. Let's see what's happening here.
我不知道为什么 好了 就这样 I don't know why. Okay, there you go.
我的意思是 给你 你知道 这是一个很好的引导 I mean, here you go. You know, this was leading quite nicely.
这是该指数第一次出现大的突破 This is the 1st time we've really had a big break in this index.
我们在这里有一些回落 但现在你在这里有一个很大的突破 We had some pullbacks here, but now you got a pretty big break here.
嗯 再一次 跑出了那个区域 Um? So again, running out of that area.
正如我在周末指出的 F-F-T-Y As I pointed out over the weekend, F-F-T-Y.
我们来了 就像我想的那样 进入新的低谷 Here we are, going to new lowes, as I as I thought we would.
这是我们通常走私的区域或者这种 这种类型的名字 增长区域 高辛烷值的名字 This is the area that, you know, we're normally trafficking and or this type of, these type of names, uh, the the growth area, the high octane names.
你可以看到 这看起来很不妙 And you can see, this just looks very ominous here.
呃 只是有点糊 你看 这里有个小陀螺 我断言 Uh, just very toppied too. You see, you've got this little top here, I formed alleged.
所以这只是不祥的举动 So just just ominous action, you know.
这种情况不会持续太久 And this doesn't have to last for very long.
我的意思是 我希望看到我们在这里有一个快速下滑 并真正恶化到下行趋势 看到看跌情绪真的很痛 I mean, I'd like to see us have a quick slide here and and really get exacerbate to the downside and see that bearishness really sore.
也许我们可以回到我说过的1998年的情形 And maybe we can get that 1998 scenario like I talked about.
如果我们能 如果美联储能实现软着陆 那就太好了 可能会是98年的情况 或者可能是94年的情况 这需要一点时间 或者我们建立右侧 That'll be great if we can, you know, pull off, if the FED can pull off a soft landing, will probably have the 98 scenario, or a possible 94 scenario, where it takes a little a time, or we build up that right side.
但我认为 在这种情况下 我们将有一个非常好的机会 嗯 在上行方面取得一些不错的进展 并在某个点上实现大幅上涨 但只是现在还不是时候 But I think coming out of this, we're going to have a really good chance to, uh, make some, make some good progress on the upside, and have a really sharp rally at some point, but just not yet.
现在 你知道 现在所有的赌注都取消了 Right now, you know, all bets are off right now.
马克 我问一下 你的交易怎么样了 Mark, real quick, uh, what's happened with your trading?
我 我猜你是 你已经被很多名字淘汰了 你可能伤痕累累 I'm, I'm guessing that you were, you've been knocked out of a lot of names, and you're probably heavy in gash.
是的 沉重的现金 我上周做空了一些市场然后减少了敞口 可能净头寸基本持平 Yeah, heavy cash. I-I actually shorted the market a little bit last week and then and cut exposure on probably net almost flat.
但是 是的 没有 你知道 我甚至没有得到50%的投资 But, yeah, there's no, you know, I didn't even get to 50% invested.
我觉得 就像你说的 我们会有一个很好的机会 And it's just, I think, to your point, we're going to have a great opportunity.
只是不是现在 你只需要有耐心 It's just not now. You just have to be patient.
我很兴奋 因为我想 我希望我们能洗掉更多 因为我认为这将为 你知道 非常非常好的机会奠定基础 I'm excited because I think, I hope we wash out even more, because I think it's just going to set the deck for, you know, really, really great opportunity.
但现在外面的情况看起来很糟糕 But right now it looks pretty bad out there.
是吗 最后一件事是 你知道 很多人 他们不喜欢调整 因为他们 他们被困在其中 或者他们没有减少损失 他们承受了很多损失 Yeah? And one last thing is that, you know, a lot of people, they don't like corrections because they're, they're stuck in them, or they had didn't cut their losses, and they took a bunch of losses.
因此 当你迅速采取行动 减少这些损失时 你不应该关注市场和我们正在做的事情 So when you're moving quickly and cutting those losses, you shouldn't be in paying attention to the market and to what we're doing here.
如果你在西蒙的话 你不应该经常被这些修正 非常低的曝光率 You shouldn't be caught in these, uh, corrections very much if you are at simon, very low exposure.
所以你应该喜欢纠正 因为这是你为下一个大动作做准备的地方 So you should be loving corrections, because this is where you, uh, you set up for the next big move up.
记住 96%的最大和最快的涨停板都是从修正开始的 Remember, 96% of the biggest movers and the fastest movers a start from corrections.
这正是我们开始寻找这些名字的时候 So this is precisely when we want to start looking for those names.
设置 我指出jxn就是其中之一 setting up. I point out j XN as being one.
我们只是把他引出来了 We just drew him out a little bit.
所以这里我们有一点轴心的弱点 So here we got a little bit of pivot weakness here.
如果能紧点就好了 但这样就好了 Would be nice if it stayed tight, but this is fine.
如果我们今天能逆转 或者保持在这里 If we can have A-A reversal here today, or hold here
然后建立右边 那就太好了 and then build that right side, that would be great.
我是说 这是一个候选人 I mean, this would be A-A candidate.
但是 如果这种情况发生得更多 你就开始出现我们所说的扩音器效应 你开始扩大波动范围 现在 可能会开始抛售 But again, if this comes off much more, and you start getting what we call the megaphone effect, and you start widening out the volatility, now, maybe this starts selling off here.
现在你已经走了相反的方向 你得到了真正的轴在右边的失败 现在将需要更长的时间来重建 Now you've gone in the opposite direction, and you've got that that real pivot failure on the right side, and now that would take a longer amount of time to rebuild.
现在 我们希望看到很多名字看起来像这样当它在这个紧右边的时候 Now, again, we want to see a lot of names looking like this when it's in this tight right side.
而现在我们的方向相反 And right now we're going in the opposite direction.
我们看到的扩音器比紧张的要多 这就是问题所在 We're seeing more megaphones than we are seeing tightness, and that's that's the problem.
所以我们需要等待 但是那些类型的 呃 增殖的设置让我们 让我们来回答一些问题 So we gotta wait for that to uh, but that those type of uh uh, set ups of proliferate let's, uh, let's go to some questions here.
好吧 我不确定我是否理解了这一点 杰里让马克在推特上说市场让年轻的投资者蒙受了巨大的损失 All right, I'm not sure I'm understanding this, uh, reading this ripe, but jerry's asking Mark tweets that the market is setting up a generation of young investors for huge losses.
你觉得现在是时候了吗 Do you think that this is, that this is the time?
首先 这句话我一年前就说过了 现在完全应验了 Well, 1st of all, I said that a year ago, and it's come absolutely 100% true.
我指出的是 一年多以前 我想大概是一年半以前 但我去年一整年都在推动这个主题 What I pointed out, well, well over a year ago, I think it was about a year and a half ago, but I really started pushing that theme all last year.
我想说的是 到底发生了什么 你有这些这些名字 就像这些尖牙的名字 每次回调都是买入的机会 而且一直越涨越高 And what I was saying was, is exactly what has taken place that you had these these names, like these fang names, that every pullback had was a buying opportunity, and just kept going higher and higher.
这导致了一种钻石手的文化 你知道 年轻的交易者认为他们可以买每一个回调 并持有它总是会回来 And that led to this a culture of diamond hands, and, you know, young traders who felt like they could just buy every pull back and hold it would always come back.
他们在网上吹牛 批评我 And they were bragging online and criticizing me.
你知道 当我被一个19岁的孩子批评他有1万美元的账户 然后告诉我 我不知道 妈的 嗯 你我们接近顶峰了 我是说 当那个 当那个传遍互联网的时候 你知道 我们处于顶峰嗯 You know, when I'm getting criticized by a 19 year old kid has got a $10000 account and telling me that I don't know, shit, um, you we're near a top I mean, when that, when that proliferates all over the Internet, you know, we're at a top um.
这可能不是正确的 但我们肯定是泡沫 我们正在接近它 It may not be right then and there, but we're definitely getting frothy, and we're getting close to it.
但现在我已经好几个月没有听到他们的任何消息了 所以一切都变得很安静 But now I haven't heard one word from many of those people for months, um, so it's gotten pretty quiet.
所以这是 这是 这是导致这里的细胞信号 So that was, again, that was, that was what led up to this cell signal here.
在这段时间里 我们仍然在向更高的方向前进 And during all this period here, where we're still marching higher.
但正如你所知 我们有很多很多的股票 呃 你知道 崩溃了 很多股票进入了下跌趋势 But as you know, we had lots and lots of stocks that were, uh, you know, breaking down, and lots of stocks going into down trends.
这就是我要说的 That's where I was talking about that.
每个人都认为这是一个买入的机会 Everybody saw that as a buying opportunity.
你看 这不是跟那些自大的孩子们在一起 Even look, this isn't even with the cocky young kids.
比尔·阿克曼在Netflix破产的时候买了它 你知道 如果你坚持一条规则 远离下跌趋势的股票 你知道 这些人认为他们很聪明 他们很聪明 但有时可能太聪明了 Bill Ackman was buying Netflix as it broke here, you know, if you just stayed a one rule and stay away from stocks that are in down trends, you know, these guys that are think they're so smart, and they are smart, but there may be sometimes too smart.
保罗·都铎·琼斯也很聪明 但他是史上最伟大的交易员之一 Um, you know, paul Tudor Jones is also really smart, but he and he's one of the greatest traders of all time.
但他也表示 要远离低于20日移动平均线的股票 But he also says, stay away from stocks that are below the 20 day moving average.
所以如果你远离那些处于下跌趋势的股票 你就不会陷入这种境地 你知道 So if you stay away from the stocks are in a staged for down trend, you won't get yourself into this situation, you know.
再来看看Netflix 你知道 每一个底部钓鱼的想法 好 很好 So again, here's Netflix. You know, every bottom fishing thinking, okay, great.
然后是雷默 对吧 我们一次又一次地看到这种情况 And then Ramo, right? We see this time and time again.
贝宝广场 甚至Facebook现在都在崩溃 而且还在走下坡路 Paypal Square, and even Facebook now is unraveling and and going to lower lows.
你知道 我们有一些人 你知道 在这里的低点买入 你知道 这些股票很可能 在很大程度上 将在很长一段时间内表现不佳 You know, we've had people, you know, buying it off the lows here, thinking at bottom, you know, these stocks are probably, for the most part, are going to underperform for a long period of time.
这是一个熊市 And this is a bear market.
表面之下 满目疮痍 彻底的毁灭 Beneath the surface, there is devastation, absolute devastation.
这是自2000年以来成长股最残酷的熊市之一 This is one of the most brutal bear markets in growth stocks since we've seen, since the, oh, eight and since the 2000 top.
更不用说经纪人了 我知道很多经纪人 他们的账簿被砍了一半 And not to mention that, you know, brokers, I know a lot of brokers that are, their books are just cut in half.
他们跌了5060 70%都被炒了 其他客户也被炒了 They're down 5060, 70% just blew their books up, blew other clients up.
你知道 这 这里的水流很湍急 You know, this? This is a pretty serious wash out here.
这就是我 你知道的 预测到目前为止 你知道 这些善良的渔夫会经历什么 And that's what I was, you know, predicting, uh, as far as, you know, what, what, what these bonum fishers would experience.
当然了 即使是Cathy也会因为弧形的乐趣而经历同样的事情 And of course, even Cathy would, with the arc fun, has experienced the same thing.
这个人 你知道 他是 应该是最擅长捞底的人之一吧 Uh, and this is, uh, you know, someone who is one of the, supposed to be one of the best at the bottom fishing game?
Michael向MarkRitchie询问 Michael is asking to Mark Ritchie.
比方说 当调整仓位规模时 我持有50%的仓位 收益2% 但他的正常仓位规模为25% When adjusting returned for a position size, say, I took a 50% position that gained 2 %, but his normal position sizings 25 %.
你会把它乘以2让它在他的记录中获得4%的加权收益吗 Would you multiply that by two to give it a 4% weighted gain in his record keeping?
完全正确 你就是这么做的 Exactly. That's exactly how you do it.
如果你想要一个平衡的位置 你只需使用任何位置大小 If you want an equalize for position, you just use whatever position size.
如果是你正常位置的两倍 那你就等两场比赛 或者输掉比赛 对吧 So if it's, say, two times your normal position, um, then you wait the game two times, or the loss, right?
这是双向的 呃 JamesZest可以通过逐步曝光来帮助你赚钱 That goes both ways. Uh? James Zest can do use progressive exposure as a way to help you chip up.
我们一直在使用渐进曝光 也应该使用渐进曝光 We use progressive exposure all the time, and should be using progressive exposure.
不管它不 没有 呃 我们 我们一直在想办法筹钱 Regardless it doesn't. There's no, uh um, we're, we're always trying to chip up.
我的意思是 这是 这是游戏的名字 你知道 I mean, that that's the, that's the name of the game here, you know.
当然 你知道 如果你想知道上升和真正踩油门的区别以及 你知道 一开始就踩油门的区别答案是 是的 我的意思是 逐渐暴露就像你自己的一部分 让你处于可以踩油门的位置 真的 And of course, you know, if you're asking the difference between shipping up and, you know, really stepping on the gas and and going for, you know, A-A full position right off the hop the answers, yes, I mean, that progressive exposure is like part of chipping up to get yourself in the position to then to be able to step on the gas, and really,
你知道的 争取更大的回报现在 you know, go for those bigger returns, um now.
当然 你可以通过投资获得更大的回报 And of course, you can get bigger returns by chipping up.
你知道 如果你一整年都攒钱 你最终会得到很好的回报如果你不断地增加你的资本 You know, if you chip up all year long, you'll end up with a very nice return if you consistently add, uh to your to your capital.
我今天才发的 如果你看一看 嗯 你知道 真正的技巧是成功 我认为这是一个东西 马克和我都做的很好 而且它来自经验和时间 是知道何时是一只鸡 因为没有人是一头猪 嗯 你知道 你要一只鸡在大多数情况下 实际上是完全远离市场 或真的小费斜向通过郁金香非常小心 I just tweet it today. If you take a look, that the um, you know, the real skill to be successful at this, and I think it's one of the things that Mark and I both do really well, and that it comes from experience and time, is to know when to be a chicken, as no one to be a pig, um, you know, you you gotta be a chicken most of the time, and really either be completely away from the market, or really tip toeing through the tulips very carefully.
有时 当你有机会能够知道事情在高概率的情况下什么时候是真正有效的 会有一头猪 真正地踩油门 进入那里 积极地交易 And then on occasion, when you get that opportunity to be able to know when things are really working in that high probability scenarios, there to be a pig and really step on the gas and to get in there and really trade aggressively.
中国在问 看到石油泄漏和领导层分道扬镳是不是一个好迹象 China is asking if it's a good sign seeing the oils and the leadership uh, sewing off.
呃 尽管他们是最强大的名字 Uh. Even though they were the strongest names.
是 好吗 这是市场良好投降的好迹象吗 Is that good? Is that a good sign as the market good capitulate?
如果你确定旧的名字 这是一个好迹象 It's a good sign if you're sure the old names.
但这是一个好迹象吗 But is it a good sign?
没有 这不是一个好迹象 No. It's not a good sign.
这是市场不健康的一个迹象 甚至没有一个领导 你知道 在这里领导的领导没有保持住 It's a sign that the market is not healthy, that there isn't even a leadership, that, you know, the leadership that is leading here is not holding.
所以这是一个迹象 我的意思是 这可能是一个好迹象 如果你把它看作我们可能会到达一个点 他们把所有的东西都洗了 婴儿和洗澡水一起被扔了出去 So it's a sign that their, I mean, it could be a good sign, if you look at it as maybe we're getting to a point where they're washing everything out, and the baby's getting thrown out with the bath water.
所以这可能是一个信号 是的 我们要 在某个时候投降 但是 你知道 我们还没到那一步 So it may be a sign that, yes, we're about, to, uh, capitulate at some point, but, you know, we're not there yet.
就在这一点 没有股票抛售 所有的东西都崩溃了 这不是一个好兆头 And it's at this point. No stocks selling off and everything breaking down is not a never a good sign.
我的意思是 这是一个不好的迹象 但有时坏的太坏了 然后它就变好了 I mean, that's a bad sign, but sometimes the bad gets so bad that then it becomes good.
我认为我们还没有到达我们的宇宙 I don't think we're at that point yet erence our universe.
你具体用什么来分类超过200日均线的股票 通用股 What specifically do you use to classify that stocks that are above their 200 a day moving average, universal arms?
是的 那不是我做的 Yeah, that is not I do.
我也有一个屏幕 我运行股票高于或低于 I do have a screen also that I run up stocks above and below.
我实际上是看百分比的 你知道 这些股票的数量在200点以上大幅上涨 而不是200点以下 I actually, I actually look at the percent, you know, this number of stocks that are up big above the 200 versus below the 200.
为什么要这样做呢 我想看看反弹是抄底反弹 还是突破反弹或精疲力竭的反弹 And why do that is, I want to see if the rally is a bottom fishing rally versus a breakout rally or an exhaustion rally.
所以当我看到很多高于200点的股票在上涨日比低于200点的股票上涨得多 So when I see a lot of stocks above the 200 day up big on the up day versus below the 200.
然后我开始看图表 然后说 好吧 这已经持续了一段时间了吗 Then I start looking at the charts and saying, okay, has this been a run that's been going on for a while?
也许这是一个失败的举动 我们现在开始变得过于恶化上行 Maybe this is a blow off move, and we're now starting to get too exacerbated to the upside.
或者正好相反 如果有一个反弹 假设有一个反弹 你知道 很多股票都在上涨 低于200点而不是高于200点 那可能意味着 我认为我们现在看到的是 你在抄底 从低点反弹 Or just the opposite. If there, if there's a rally, let's say a rally, you know, with a lot of stocks are up, uh, below the 200 versus above, then that could mean where, I think what we see now is you're getting, uh, you're getting bottom fishing and getting snap backs off the low.
这不是一个好市场 And that's not a good that's not a good market.
那不是我想参与的市场 因为那不是我在玩的游戏 That's not a market that I want to be involved with, because that's not the game that I'm playing.
嗯 所以 你知道 我用了几种不同的方法来分割股票 但事实上 这就是我所关注的所有股票 Um. So again, you know, I-I dice it up a few different ways, but the universe is, that's all the stocks basically that I follow.
大概有8到9000个名字 尽管我猜总共可能有15000只股票 当你开始引入非常低的价格和低价股等等 That's about eight or 9000 names, even though there's, I guess there's probably 15000 stocks total, when you start bringing in the really low price and the penny stocks and all that.
但是对于高质量的名字 你知道 所谓的高质量的名字 嗯 你会找到 比如说 一个市场铁匠 大概有8到9000个名字 这就是宇宙 But of quality names, you know, quote unquote quality names, um that you would find and, say, a market smith, there's about eight or 9000 names, and that's the universe.
好的 内森在问 你能提供更多的信息关于你如何使用+-3 89+rs排序吗 Okay, nathan's asking, could you provide a little more information on how you use the plus minus three, 89 plus rs ranking?
加矿是四米 And the plus mine is four metric.
就像我解释的数字一样 我们只看那些股价上涨或下跌3%的公司的数量它们的相对强势在89或以上 Well, just as I explained the number, we're just looking at the number of names that are up 3% or down 3% that have a relative strength of 89 or higher.
所以很明显 如果你知道 如果你有很多股票下跌 在相对强势排名中 那是一个糟糕的日子 你知道 当你有所有这些大的下跌 So obviously, if you know, if you're getting a whole lot of stocks down, uh in in that that relative strength ranking, that's a that's a bad day, you know, when you have all those big moves down.
我只是想确定市场的哪个领域 So I'm just trying to determine what area of the market.
我们想知道的是我们的游戏什么时候运行 我们只是想知道市场上发生了什么 All we're trying to find out is when our our game is is working, you know, we're just trying to figure out what's going on here in the market.
我们并不是在试图选择底部和顶部 并弄清楚市场何时会转向 We're not trying to pick bottoms and tops and figure out when the market is gonna turn.
我们试图弄清楚 什么时候 我们交易的股票 我们交易的风格 什么时候这种风格起作用 We're trying to figure out when, what the the stocks that we trade, the style that we trade, when that style is working.
我们通过监控来衡量 然后进行交易 And we were gaging that through monitoring and then actually placing trades.
一旦我们进行交易 我们就会得到真实的反馈 这就是我们可以 你知道的 这就是问题所在 我们会发现 你知道 在那之前 我们不会投入真正的资金直到我们至少看到一些证据 有可能我们应该这么做 And then once we place the trades, we get that real feedback, and that's where we can, you know, the rubber hits the road, and we find out what, you know, until then, you know, we're not gonna put real money up until we at least see some evidence that there's a, there's a probability that we should do that.
在证据得到真正证据的支持之前我们都不会投入大笔资金 And then we're not even gonna put big money up until that evidence is backed by real evidence.
这是另一种衡量和观察市场的方式 你知道 切割市场并观察 这就是为什么 或如何 你知道 我我站在市场的右边 大多数 So that's just another way of gaging and taking a look at, you know, slicing the market and taking a look, and this is why, or or how, you know, I I'm on the right side of the market the majority of the
你知道 在这些转折点 人们认为我有一些可以观察整体市场的茶叶 但实际上 我只是看了看表面之下的股票 它们给我提供了市场健康状况的最佳画面 比指数所能做的更多 time, you know, in these turning points, people think I have some tea leaves that I watch for the general market, but actually it's really just looking at the stocks beneath the surface, and they give me the best picture of the health of the market, more than the act the indexes could ever do.
好吧 阿尼问如果你现在从Bye和买入警报列表买入1020 000个小时的仓位 在postray宣布买入后 是否有任何理由不和你的经纪人设定止损 正如我意识到的 我感觉我的更大的损失是在我离开电脑的时候 我没有注意到止损警报被触发 所以我最终以更低的价格卖出 Okay, arnie's asking If you're buying 1020 thousand hour positions from the Bye now and buy alert list, whether there be any reason not to set a stop loss with your broker after postray announced, as I realized, I feel my bigger losses came when I was away from the computer, and I didn't notice the stop loss alert getting hit, so I ended up selling that lower prices.
我想你刚刚回答了你自己的问题 I think you just answered your own question.
我的意思是 很明显 如果你不关注股票 你不能 如果你手动设置止损点 它不会成为触发点 当然 我的意思是 你必须有一些机制来止损 否则你会承担很大的风险 I mean, obviously if you're not watching the stock, you can't the stop loss isn't going to be trigger if you're manually setting So, of course, I mean, you are gonna have to have some mechanism to stop your loss, otherwise you're taking big risk.
你离开了屏幕 你的股票无人看管 You're going away from the screen then, you know, and your your stock is unattended.
很明显 它不能触发停止 Well, obviously that it's not going to be able to hit trigger the stop.
所以你必须这样做 So you have, you would have to do that.
詹姆斯问 当你开始部分仓位和像U-N-H这样的交易时 你对小仓位的反应和你对满仓位的反应一样快吗 James is asking When you start partial positions and trades like U-N-H, do you deris the small position as quickly as if you took a full position?
你会尽快卖出一半吗 或者你只是希望更有可能在这一站而不是那一站 或者两者兼而有之 Would you be as fast to sell half, or would you just want just more likely move up this stop instead of that, or both?
我 我在绕我的篱笆 I I'm, I'm my hedge spinning.
我都不知道那是什么意思 I don't even know what what that means.
所以当你拥有一个完整的头寸时 你想冒很大的风险来减少你的全部损失还是全部损失 So when you have a full position, do you want a deep risk it to, you know, reduce your totally or a full loss?
但是 如果你一开始只做绳状或半码的姿势 你会像做满码的姿势一样快速地冒险做小码的姿势吗 But if you're starting with only a cord or a half size position, are you as quick to deep risk that smaller sized position as you would be with a full place?
我没有白纸黑字等着回答和确定这个问题 I don't have a black and white waited to answer that and determine that.
所以我不会因为我有一个完整的职位就去降低风险 So that's not I'm not going to de risk just because I have a full position.
我可能会减少持有小仓位的风险 I might de risk a smaller position.
当我觉得事情有风险时 我就会去冒险 我想要 呃 呃 确保 你知道 我的账户不会变成负数 I'm de risking when I feel things are risky and that I want to, um, uh, make sure that, you know, I'm not going into negative in my account.
所以 我的意思是 如果我有利润 我可能 我可能不太可能去风险 So, I mean, if I have profits to work with, I might, I might be less likely to de risk.
呃 如果我刚刚开始 或者我处于亏损状态 我很可能会冒险 因为我试图让自己回到收支平衡 让自己盈利 Uh? If I'm just starting, or if I'm at a loss, I would really be likely to do risk, because I'm trying to get myself back to break even and get myself profitable.
我不知道 马克 你呢 Um, I don't know, mark, how about you?
是的 我想说这必须通过交易来交换 Yeah, I would just say it has to be traded by trade, you know.
然后 然后真正的你的观点 也通过交易 在你最近的性格变化上 你知道 我 我 我不会去冒任何风险 And then and then to really your point too, also trade by trade, on top of how your most recent traits are going, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm not gonna de risk anything.
如果事情进展顺利 你知道 我希望变得更积极 反之亦然 If things are working well, you know, I'm looking to be more aggressive and more vice versa.
事情进展不顺利时 我更倾向于迅速降低交易风险 Things are not going well, I'm much more apt to de risk a trade quickly.
是的 你必须这么做 这真的是 你知道 一种个人决定你在交易中的位置 或者你是保守还是激进 Yeah, you have to. That's really, you know, A-A sort of a personal decision of where you are with your trading, or also how conservative or aggressive you are.
你可能会一直想冒险 You might want to do risk all the time.
现在 我知道一些交易者他们总是在交易中冒险 他们总是很安全 他们宁愿增加筹码 选择安全的路线 然后 真的 在任何时候都变得非常非常进步 Now, I know some traders that they always do risk the trade, and they're always playing it safe, and they'd rather sort of chip up and and have played the safe route, uh, then really, at any point get super, super progressive.
我知道其他的交易者 他们只是等待 他们不去降低任何风险 他们非常耐心地等待 当条件真正合适的时候 他们就满仓入市 用那种方式交易 And then I know other traders that, you know, just wait, and they don't de risk anything, and they and they wait and wait very patiently, when when the conditions are really right, they just go right in with full positions and and trade them that way.
所以它是真实的 更有风格 So it's real, really more stylistic.
还有你个人的风险承受能力 And your own personal risk tolerance also there.
他问的是 同一组的另一只股票在财报公布后表现或表现不佳的情况是多少 He's asking, how much does another stock in the same group performing or underperforming due to an earnings announcement?
这会影响你的决定吗 以UNH为例 CNC是他关注的一只股票 今天表现不佳 拖累了整个行业 Will that affect your decision? In in UNH as an example, uh CNC was a stock he was sighting that was apparen'tly UH had an underperformance day, and bringing down the sector as a whole.
这对你的决定有多大的影响如果你有一个重大的突破 如果一个重大突破 和一个关键的领导者 How much would that influence your decision if you have a major break, if a big break, and a key leader?
当然 你知道的 我的意思是 亚马逊是一个完美的例子 或者说是谷歌 或者是这些主要的关键领导者之一 Absolutely, you know. So let's just say, I mean, amazon is a perfect example, or a Google or one of these major key leaders.
你知道 netflix 当然 我想 在这个特定的领域 netflix没有太多竞争对手 You know, netflix, of course, is a it's not much competition for Netflix in that particular space, I guess.
现在越来越多了 但我想是直接竞争 More emerging now, but direct competition, I guess.
但我们只能说 你知道 netflix是一个 你知道 一个行业组织的关键领导者 But let's just say, you know, netflix is a, you know, the key leader in an industry group.
F-L-X 你还有其他的 你还有其他的库存在这个组里 这个库存是顶的还是坏的 你有一个大的突破吗 And F-L-X, and you've got other, you've got some other stocks in this group, and this stock is topped or is broken down, you got a big break?
嗯 当然 你知道 这肯定会影响 Um, absolutely. You know, that's, that's definitely going to affect.
我可能会 呃 你知道的 收紧一些 或者 如果我买了一只赚钱的股票 我可能会把止损点提高到收支平衡 I'm probably going to, uh, you know, be be tighter, or maybe, if I'm in a stock that's profitable, and move my stop up to break even.
但是 是的 那肯定会 那肯定会 但不是那种我必须卖出的规则 你知道 仅仅因为集团中的一只股票下跌了 但我肯定会把它考虑进去 But, yeah, that would, that would definitely, but not not in a way where it's a rule where I'm necessarily gonna sell, you know, just because a stock in the group is down, but I'm going to factor it in for sure.
好吧 当你考虑拿短线利润和股票的时候 因为 All right, make when you consider taking short term profits and stocks because of the
当前的市场状况 你应该尝试在交易中获得1个小时的收益 还是坚持日内交易的利润 比如1个或2% current market condition. Should you try to get 1 H on the trade, or just stick with day trading profits, like a one or 2 %?
我不能回答这个问题 你必须回答这个问题 这些是你的目标和你的手腕承受能力 你知道你是否想在一天中进行大量交易 I can't answer that question. You have to answer that question that those are your goals and your wrist tolerances, and you know whether you want to trade a lot throughout the day and and
如果你想成为一个波段交易者 你可以通过大量的周转来获得回报 make your return by turning over a lot, or if you want to be a swing trader or along.
你必须定义自己 你必须决定你运行的是什么类型的操作 You've got to define yourself. You've got to decide what type of operation you're running.
你知道 这就像你问我 你应该做什么样的生意 你知道 你应该做泡泡糖生意还是法拉利经销商的生意 And, you know, that's like you ask me, you know, what kind of business you should be in, you know, whether you should go into the the bubble gum business or the ferrari dealership business.
你知道 很明显 如果你在卖泡泡糖 你必须卖出数百万只才能从几美分或别的什么东西上赚到钱 You know, obviously if you're selling bubble gums, you're going to have to sell millions of them to make a profit on a couple of pennies or whatever.
这些是庄重的法拉利和兰博基尼 你的利润率会高很多 And these are solemn Ferraris and Lamborghinis, that your profit margin is going to be a lot higher.
所以你必须做出决定 So you've got to make that decision.
我不能替你做决定 I can't make the decision for you.
是吗 哈里也有类似的问题 所以你也应该知道答案 Yeah? And, uh, harry had a similar question, so that should answer for you too.
哈里马特问我股票e-i-g-r-i-g-r Harry, um Matt was asking on the stock E-I-G-R-E-I-G-R.
是在04 11加到贝勒特身上的 就在这里 It was added to Bylert on 04:11, yeah, right over here.
根据5215 200日移动平均线 它似乎没有处于上行状态 什么因素导致你把它放在biler上 And based on the 5115, 200 day move in averages, it did not seem to be in a states to Uptraand what factors cause you to put this on biler?
好吗 好吧 权力游戏不需要在一个阶段 这些是其中一个场景 你不需要在一个确定的阶段 OK? Well, power plays don't have to be in a stage to those are, those are one of the, one of the scenarios that you will not have to be in a confirmed stage to uptra.
这是一个强有力的游戏 这就是为什么我们有 如果你去市场史密斯 有一个月的趋势模板 And this is a power play, and that's why we have, if you go into Market Smith, there's a one month trend template.
一个月的趋势模板是你不需要MS的 And that one month trend template is so you don't MS.
那些没有被证实的网络趋势的力量游戏 the power plays that aren't in confirmed staged web trends.
这就是原因 And so that that's the reason.
他问的是顶点公司 R-T-X 怎么了 And he's asking about Vertex, the R-T-X, what about it?
在03 11的时候 在作弊的时候击中了一个点 在03 20的时候 在基地爆发的时候击中了一个点 On 03:11, hit a by point from a cheat, and on 03:20, hit a by point on a base breakout.
我没有购买这两种时间 因为Vine预计将在50日移动平均线以下 I did not buy either time, as Vine was projected to be below the 50 day by moving average.
在股票下跌的那一天 它是由点决定的 On the day a stock hits, it's predetermined by point.
多少量在当天的飞机上 您的决定买方 How much does volume on that day plane to your decision Purchaser?
它不是 进展并不顺利 It doesn't. It does not going well.
首先 如果是在早上或中午爆发 你不会有音量 所以你不会知道在一天结束时 音量MS 1st of all, if it's breaking out early in the morning or midday, you're not going to have the volume, so you won't know at the end of the day, volume MS.
的一周 如果你还在等着决定销量 你会选择MS Week. If you're waiting to make your decision on volume, you're going to MS.
所有发生在中午或清晨的越狱事件 Every breakout that's mid day or early day.
不是每次突破都在移动 但肯定的是 任何突破都有足够的量 你可以推断出它的量 知道 当它突破的时候 看看它是否在速度上运行 Um, not moving on every breakout, but certainly any breakout that has the volume up to that point, you could extrapolate the volume, know, as it's breaking out, and see if it's running on pace.
但我 我不这么看成交量 就像我不 它不需要证实爆发 But I-I don't look at volume in that way, like I don't it doesn't have to confirm on the breakout.
接下来的几天我都在看 I'm looking at it over subsequent days.
我在看价格 体积只是其中一个组成部分 I'm looking at the price, and the volume is only one component.
我现在想知道的是到底有多少天了 What I'm really looking at is how many days is it up?
有多少件好衣服 我在书中谈到的所有事情 把Trade想成一个冠军以及我们将以自动的方式为你建立赛道的所有事情 你将在一两周内通过NewModeler产品了解到这些 你会发现这绝对是惊人的 嗯 How many good clothes? All the things I talk about in my book, thinking Trade like a champion and and all the things that we're going to build the track for you in in an automated fashion, which you're going to learn about in just a week or two with the New Modeler product, which is, you'll find is absolutely amazing um.
这样你就可以跟踪你的投资组合 And you'll be able to track your portfolio.
它会帮你观察股票 告诉你什么时候成交量确定 什么时候涨了多少天 多少个好收盘价 诸如此类 And it will watch the stocks for you and tell you when the volume confirms, when you have how many days up, how many good closes, all that stuff.
它不仅是一个监测工具 也是一个教学工具 因为你可以回头看看 好吧 这是发生的事情 你可以 你可以在图表上指出它们 And it's not only a monitoring tool, but it's also a teaching tool, cause you'll be able to go back and see, okay, here's the things that happened, and you'll, you'll be able to point them out on the chart.
所以 嗯 但是 但是 是的 关于音量的答案是 不 它不需要在爆发上有音量 So, um, but, but, yeah, the answer for the volume is is that, no, it doesn't have to have the volume on the break out.
我的意思是 如果它能在一定的交易量上上涨就好了 但我可以告诉你 当一只股票突破了一个基数 特别是在周期的后期 在突破的时候会有大量的交易量 I mean, it would be nice if it lifted off on some volume, but I can tell you this, you know, when a stock breaks out of a base, especially late stage in a cycle, and there's a ton of volume on the breakout.
有时这表明这是一个拥挤的交易 有很多人在关注它 你会看到大量的零售量 Sometimes that's an indication that it's a crowded trade, and there's a lot of eyes on it, and you get a lot of retail volume going in there.
我宁愿看到一个安静的爆发 然后看着它积聚蒸汽 你知道 随着它的发展 I'd rather see a quiet breakout, and then sort of watch it gather steam, you know, as it follows through.
当你在几天内得到一些跟踪 它继续上升 音量开始增加 我更喜欢这种情况 When you get some follow through days, and it keeps going higher, and the volume starts to come in, I-I like that scenario a little bit better.
就好像股票跑路了 然后他们开始追上去 It's almost like the stock is getting away, and then they start chasing it up.
这才是我最希望的情况 That's the kind of situation I-I optimally want to be in.
但当然 你知道 在高成交量时突破是好的 你知道 在低成交量时突破 你必须小心 But certainly, you know, a breakout on high volume is good, you know, and a breakout on low volume, you have to be careful.
但我 你知道的 有一项违规行为我称之为低音量 But I-I, you know, there's a violation that I call low volume out.
在你想要寻找的高成交量中如果你在那之后出现了低成交量爆发 你会在它回来之后开始出现高成交量吗 High volume in what you want to look for if you get a low volume breakout subsequent to that, are you getting a high volume where it comes back in and then it starts breaking down?
那真的很消极 所以你要把它们相互联系起来 That's really negative. So you gotta kind of relay them to each relate them to each other.
加里在问ct的事 Gary is asking about ct Ic.
你会认为这仍然是一个玩转 即使这一举动已经形成了几个星期 而且因为它的低价格性质 Would you consider this still to be a paraplay, even though the move is already been building up for several weeks, and also because of its low price nature.
是的 这是在一个简单的投递箱中提出的 同样 这是一个5美元的股票在这个市场上 但它真的是一个很好的权力游戏 Yes. So this was brought up on on the simple drop box, and, uh again, it's a $5 stock on this market, but it is really setting up as a pretty nice power play.
所以我考虑放一只胳膊 但我不想 你知道 只放一只5美元的股票 So I was considering putting an arm, but I didn't want to put, you know, just one stock of $5 stock.
你看 下降了22% You see, it came off about 22 %.
现在 这20% 呃 市场的权利 Now, that 20 %. Uh, market's right.
只是 Just
有关 5美元的股票 我给它25%的利息 about on it. With a $5 stock, I would give it 25 %.
但再一次 这是完美的安排 你知道 另一天 But again, it's setting up perfect, you know, another day
在这里 特别是如果它能保持下去 如果市场继续进来 这就可以保持下去 inside here, especially if it can hold up, if the market keeps coming in here, and this could stay
非常紧 随后 爆发 你知道 肯定会 real tight, subsequently, breaking out would be, you know, definitely
一种 清晰的逐点切割 A-A, clear cut by by point.
嗯 所以它看起来真的很好 但它是 你知道 记住 它是一个5美元的股票 所以它是非常非常投机的 当然 但是 是的 这是 这是一个绝对值得双警报 现在 火星问你是否使用 或者你在这个阶段使用什么屏幕来找到下一个周期的领导者 Um. So it's looking really good, but it is, you know, remember, it is a $5 stock, so it is very, very speculative, of course, but, yeah, I this is, this is a definitely bi alert worthy Right now, mars is asking if you use, or what screens are you using at this stage to be able to find the leaders of the next cycle?
呃 我在看新高潮列表 UH. I'm looking at the new highs list.
我在看那些相对强势表现最好的股票 屡创新高 I'm looking at uh stocks that are holding up the best at relative strength, hitting new highs.
只有那些最接近新高的股票 Just stocks that are closest to new highs.
这条路的强度线接近他们的历史最高纪录 或者让他们达到新的高度 And the road to strength lines that are closest to their all time highs, or or getting rs hitting new highs.
什么是最好的 Just what's holding up the best?
这是最主要的 股票支撑着最好的公司的基础 股票支撑着 或者说建立了一个基础 That's the main thing. Well, the stocks are holding up the base of the best, and the stocks are holding up, or building a base.
有个拉斐尔在问特斯拉的事 A Raphael is just asking about Tesla.
如果价格从 我猜是什么 上周晚些时候 那些大逆转 会否定你的设定吗 If the price action from, I guess what would be, late last week, those big reversals, would would negate this set up for you?
当他们检查设备的时候 我是说 现在已经很草率了 Well, when they gate the set up, I mean, it's pretty sloppy right now.
很明显 这里有很多供应 And there's a lot, there's clearly a lot of supply here.
所以这就不需要 这就需要做功 来建造右边 So this wouldn't have, this would need work to be built, to have the right side built.
还有一点 你必须记住 我是说 这是一个不知道特斯拉的超级英雄 And the thing is, too, you have to remember, I mean, this is a super who doesn't know about Tesla.
我的意思是 我有很多朋友在这个行业已经做了很长时间了 每次回调都买入 一旦触顶 他们可能会一路下跌 因为他们会认为这是买入的机会 会买入更多 因为贪婪超过了他们对风险的尊重 嗯 你知道的 I mean, I have so many friends in this that have been in this for so long, have bought every pull back and are probably going to write it all the way down once it tops, because they'll think it's a buying opportunity and buy more because the greed outweighs their respect for risk, uh, you know.
再说一次 这是另一只可能会让很多人蒙受巨大损失的股票 但是 呃 它还没有形成 And again, this is another stock that's probably setting up, you know, a lot of people for big losses, but, uh, it's just not set up yet.
所以 我想把它设置在这一层 在1145层附近 然后保持在这一层 然后从这一层突破 So, um, you know, I-I would like to see it set up up around this level, around that 1145 level, um, and stay tight there, then break out from there.
但我对这只股票这么大的变动持怀疑态度 But I would be suspicious of the stock that made such a big move.
你知道 这显然不是在看周报 Um, you know, this is obviously not looking at a weekly here.
这可不是什么大器晚成的人 This is not, uh, an early bloomer here.
现在看起来有点歪了 就像第三阶段 And it's starting to look a bit toppy here, like the Stage Three.
所以我们还没有在第四阶段分解 但是它开始看起来越来越不稳定了 So we haven't broken down at the Stage Four, but it is starting to look like it's getting a bit more volatile here.
但是 你知道 大家都在猜测它是否会从这里开始往上走 But, you know, again, it's anybody's guess if this is going to set up and go higher from here.
但在这一点上 我不会 我不会在这里捣乱 嗯 看着尼哈特在问关于E-O-L-S的问题 想知道 呃 这是否符合parplay的标准 尽管 呃 我想这是在六天之内 But at this point, I wouldn't, I wouldn't be messing with this right here, um, looking at nihat is asking about E-O-L-S and wondering, uh, if this would be meeting paraplay criteria, even though, uh, I guess it is within six days here.
是的 是的 我的意思是 它击败了它的潜在力量 你知道 它做了两个 Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's beating it the potential power play, you know, it's made a double.
它被拉回了这里 这里不是很多 只有13%左右 但它正从低点走出来 And it's pulled back here, Not very much here, only about 13% so, but it's coming right off the lows.
你可以试着在这里演奏 You could try to play it right here.
我的意思是 这是你可以尝试在这里玩的东西 I mean, this is something you could try to play right here.
我要把这个打开 I'm going to bring this up.
E哦 L-S 这是我没有看到的 我会把它放在我的列表上 也许我们会把它放在警告上 E oh, L-S, this is when I have not seen I will put it on my list here, and maybe we'll put it on by alert.
嗯 我的意思是 你可以尝试 因为它在这里上升 尝试在这里的低点交易 Um, I mean, you can try, as it's turning up here, and try to trade it off the lows here.
你的造型有点廉价 You got a little little low cheap forming.
嗯 最好 我希望看到它能在市场调整时保持住 可能会收紧几天 然后通过低成本的支点反弹 Um, preferably. I'd like to see it hold up with the market correcting, and maybe get tight for a couple of days, and then turn up through a low cheap pivot.
但是 但是 是的 是的 它 它 它 它符合 呃 标准 Um, but, uh, but, yeah, yeah, it, it's, uh, it, it's meeting, uh, the criteria.
不过我得看得更深入一点 I have to look at it a little more deeply, though.
我刚刚才看到这个 你看这里 I just just saw this just now, you see here.
是啊 不是很厉害 但它符合标准一个关于N-V-C-T和D-C-T的问题 这两个名字本来就很单薄 Yeah, yeah, it's not as a real powerful move, but it has met the criteria a question about N-V-C-T and D-C-T, which is a very, uh, thinner name to begin with.
但现在它几乎没有体积 But right now it's got almost virtually no volume.
这值得考虑吗 是的 这个出现在我的屏幕上 Is this worth considering? Yeah. This is one that has come up on my screen.
嗯 我看到了这个 Um. And I see this one.
其实我已经看了几个星期了 I've been watching this actually, for a couple weeks now.
嗯 实际上 交易 交易非常好 每天大约70万股 Uh, trades, actually. Trades pretty good trades, about 700000 shares a day.
事实上 这是一个好兆头 The fact that the volume has really come in here is a good sign um.
是的 我的意思是 市场真的很好 我真的会非常仔细地看这个 Yeah, I mean, the market was really good, I'd be really looking at this really carefully.
但是 我们这里有很多低价股票 所以你要小心 But again, we're looking at a lot of low price stocks here, so you got to be careful.
在这种环境下 这是非常 非常具有投机性的东西 This is very, you know, very speculative stuff in this type of environment.
你要非常小心低质量的 You got to be real careful with the lower quality.
但是 你可以 你知道 从这里开始它确实形成了一个主元 Uh, but again, you can, you know, this turns up from here is certainly it's forming a pivot.
你可以试着玩一下 但你会发现它很不稳定 You can try to play it, but you can see it's been quite volatile.
所以我要记住这一点 So I just keep that in mind.
是的 这是一只完全亏损的股票 没有任何收入 没有盈利 Yeah, this is a stock that has all losses, no no revenue at all, no earnings.
嗯 你知道 这是 这是一个斑点 就像一个推测 Um, you know, this is, this is about as a speckle, as a speculative as it gets.
马克 我看到你写的关于笑话约翰·康纳利和他的艺术茶的纸条 Um, the say, mark, I saw your note about joke John Connally and his art tea.
我的创伤已经失去了一船的污点 My trauma has been losing a boatload in stain.
在超级后悔中太久了 Too long in the hypergret
名字 最终在今年早些时候全部兑现 names, and finally going to all cash early earlier this year.
他的技巧也适用于交易心理吗 Do his techniques apply to the psychology of trading as well?
他在这里指的是约翰·康利 OK, so what he's referring to here is John Connly.
我发了一条关于一个叫约翰·康尼的治疗师的推文 他对人进行治疗的方式非常独特 I did a tweet about a therapist named John Conney, who has A-A very unique way of of doing therapy with people.
我约翰·康尼 我和约翰·康利做过治疗 I actually John Conney was, uh, I did a sessions with John Conley.
我觉得他是个天才 Um, I think he's a genius.
我觉得他是个未被发掘的天才 I think he's an undiscovered genius.
嗯 他有一种技术叫做快速解决疗法 它的意思是你可以在1分钟或1小时内 在一次谈话中解决你的问题 Um, he he He has a technique that's called rapid resolution therapy, which basically what it means is that you could resolve your issue in literally in 1 min in 1 h, in one conversation.
我相信 你知道 我坚信 一本书 一次对话 可以改变你的生活 UM And I believe that, you know, I believe that very strongly, one book, one conversation, can change your life.
所以 嗯 所以他在做一个免费的治疗 So, um. So he's, he does A-A free um session.
我不知道是一周一次还是一个月一次 但今天 其实是晚上七点 我会去的 I don't know if it's every week or once a month, but this to day, actually, at 07:00 p.m., and I-I will be there.
我知道 我知道 但从我发推特给他看 他就火了 他马上就卖光了 现在他又重新开张了 我觉得它又火了 And I know, I know, but from me tweeting him, he it blew up, and he sold out immediately, and now he reopened it, and I think it's something out again.
所以会有很多人参加 比他以前有过的人多很多 So there's going to be a lot of people there, um, way more than he ever has had.
我们看看会发生什么 但问题是 这和交易有关吗 So we'll see what happens. But, but the question was, does it relate to trading?
他不是交易教练 对吧 He is not a trading coach, um?
他可能对股票交易一无所知 He probably doesn't know anything about stock trading whatsoever.
当然 我们已经讨论了一点 Of course, we've talked about it a little bit.
但是 呃 不 但是 是的 它是 But, um, but no, but yes, it does.
我是说 不管你的 他处理的是非常严重的情况 I mean, whatever your um, he deals with very serious situations.
我是说 在今晚的电话会议上 他会给大家做演讲 但是他有一些非常非常棒的案子还有我看到的一些事情 I mean, and, and on this call tonight, um, he'll be addressing people, and, but he's had some really, really amazing cases and and things that I've seen.
但他真的很了不起 真的很了不起 But a real amazing guy, just a really amazing guy.
我觉得他是一个绝对的天才 一个美丽的所以也许你应该听他的 I think he's an absolute genius and a beautiful So maybe you should tune into that.
你必须上我的推特 那里有链接 你可以注册 但她尝试了一下 You have to go on my Twitter feed, and there's the link there, and you could register, but she give a try.
给它 你就去做 做几个疗程 也许和他们一起 几个疗程 快速的 呃 呃 你知道 呃 治疗 Give it, you do it. Do a couple sessions, maybe a session with them, a couple sessions, uh, with the rapid, uh, uh, you know, uh, therapy?
我想你可能会对格雷格问的这些非常有力的问题感到惊讶 在你的绘图软件上 有玛格丽特·史密斯的标记 嗯 当你看这条力量线的路线时 股票就在图表的正上方 在市场上方 而不是你用纳斯达克指数来做比较 And I think you might be amazed he he these incredibly powerful question Greg is asking On your charting software, there mark on Margaret Smith Uh, when you look at that route of strength line with the stock directly above the chart, above the market, rather you used a NASDAQ for comparison.
或者你是在寻找特定的日子和比你在玛格丽特身上看到的更详细的细节吗当你把它们摞在一起时 And or are you looking for specific days and more detail than you see on Margaret spent when you stack them right on top of one another?
我想现在你可以改变了 I think now you can change.
这不是我们之前给鲍勃提的建议 This is not a suggestion we made Bob a while back.
现在 我想他们提供标准普尔500或更低的价格 Now, I think they now offer S-P 500 or less.
比如你可以改变索引 Like you can change the index.
我用标普 标普指数就放在这里 I use the S&P. I just leave the S&P there.
所以 嗯 但如果你愿意 你当然可以用纳斯达克 特别是如果你有纳斯达克的名字 也许 So, um. But you certainly can use the Nasdaq if you want it, particularly if you have Nasdaq names, maybe, um.
这可能是我给他们的另一个建议 你可以 你可以给它编程 在一个纳斯达克名称上 纳斯达克线出现在纽约证券交易所 S和B线出现 So that might be another suggestion I might make to them, that you can on a on you can program it, so on a Nasdaq name, the NASDAQ line comes up on a maybe a New York Stock exchange, the S and B line comes up.
这可能是第三种选择 That could be a 3rd option.
所以 我一般只用标普 Uh, so, but I-I generally use just use the S&P.
胜利者有一个相当长的问题 A victor has a fairly long question.
看看我能不能解释一下 See if I can paraphrase it.
让我讲一个更短的 这样我就能读到弱租界中提到的这个标志 在一次修正之后 他度过了他最辉煌的一年获得了400%以上的回报 Um actually, let me get to a shorter one, so I can read this mark mentioned in the Weak Concession, that after a correction, he had one of his biggest years with a 400 plus percent return.
这其中大部分是领导者和50天或更好的停顿吗 Was much of that with leaders and 50 day or better type stops?
还是大多数人都是因为有太多的安排 Or was the majority from just having so many setups?
我想如果你指的是94年 我说的是19年 1995年 那时候 我们不怎么做短期交易 I think if you're referring to the 94, when I talked about 19, oh, 1995, Back then, we didn't do as much shorter term trading.
因此 有些股票是在大得多的波动中持有的 只是因为你必须这样做 So there were stocks that were held from much bigger moves, just simply because you had to.
但佣金是更高的差价 But the commissions were higher spreads.
我的意思是 你下订单的方式非常麻烦 所以我们不经常进出 只是因为我们我们做不到 I mean, the the the way that you had to place orders was all very cumbersome, so we weren't in and out as much, um, just because we we couldn't do it.
所以 是的 还有更多 但就50天法则而言 这是非常罕见的 我只在很少的情况下使用过它 你知道 偶尔会有 你知道 真正的大赢家 So, yeah, there was more, but as far as the 50 day rule, that's quite rare, and I've only used that on rare occasion, had, you know, every now and then, you know, really big winners.
你们大多数人都知道 这些年来我赚的所有利润都来自 你知道的 波动交易而长期的 真正的长期仓位交易 是 你知道的 我所做的最少的 Most of you know, all the profits that I've made over the years have all been from, you know, swing trading, um and And that longer term, real long term position trading has been, uh, the, you know, the the least of what I've done.
但是 你知道 那真的应该使用那种类型的规则 So, but again, you know, that that really should use that type of rule.
从熊市中走出来 你开始看到很多股票在建立 那些先行者 那就是你可能想要利用的一部分 Coming off of a bear market, and you start seeing the a lot of stocks setting up, and those 1st movers, that's where you want to maybe use that on a portion.
如果你进行交易 你会有一些财务风险 嗯 获得一些利润 然后 你知道 可能在一半或四分之一的头寸上进行交易 在50天内进行更大的波动 在50以下进行更长期的突破 If you swing trade out of some, you financial risk a bit, UH, take some profit, and then play, you know, maybe on half the position, or quarter the position, for a bigger move with the with the uh 50 day, and a longer term with with uh a break below the 50.
肯说 你曾经说过你会远离石油股 Ken said, you once said that you were staying away from oil stocks.
只是因为它们不稳定 Is just because they are volatile.
潜艇是否合适 Is if the subs are appropriate?
我们还能试试吗 但马克·雷吉的消息不多 Can we still try them? But we haven't heard much from Mark Reggie.
马克 我们为什么不远离石油股呢 Mark, why don't we stay away from oil stocks?
嗯 正是今天发生的事情 完全正确 Well, precisely what's happening today. Exactly, right?
如果你看看今天的头条是什么 Well, if you look today, what what the headline was?
你知道 石油 大宗商品交易下跌 所有的股票都相互勾结 你开始有两个风险股票风险 然后你有了大宗商品风险 You know, the oil, the commodities trading down, and all the stocks have collabored um, and you started to have two risk of the stock risk, and then you have that commodity risk.
但对我来说最大的原因是我的记录 But the biggest reason for me is just my record.
不太好 等一下 如果你研究历史上最严重的冬季 你不会看到石油和天然气在那张清单上 It's not very good. In a minute, if you study the biggest winters in history, you're not going to see oil and gas on that list.
是的 两个原因 一是我认为我们的记录 我的记录也不是很好 Yeah, two reasons. One is that I think our record, my record as well, is not that great.
当你看 你知道 我的交易在商品名称和增长名称 我也会说 你知道 我的记录不太好 嗯 这是保守的名称的周期 When you look at, you know, my trading in the commodity names versus the growth names, I-I too would would say that, you know, my track record is not nearly as good, um, which is an understatement in the ccyclical names.
原因是我们在这些基地进行交易 The reason why is because we're trading them from these bases.
当他们成立的时候 这些都是周期性的名字 And by the time they set up, these are cyclical names.
很多收获已经发生了 Uh, a lot of the gain has already happened.
你知道的 就像柠檬汁一样 因为他们没有那种世俗的 呃 寿命 You know, the juice is sort of out of the lemon because they don't have that secular type, uh, lifespan.
嗯 所以 这不是一个他们不采取行动的地方 Um. So again, it's not a not where they don't make moves.
但是 如果你买了这里的奥施康定 价格很低 很便宜 效果很好 你知道 But maybe the value guys, um, you know, again, if you bought oxy over here down with that low, cheap, great, it worked great, you know.
但现在 当你获得了权力 你开始得到这些设置 再一次 一个确定的上升趋势 你开始与我所看到的 你知道 多年来 它变得更加困难 But now, as you're getting the power play, you start getting these setups, once again, to a confirmed up trend, you start to with which I've seen, you know, over the years, it gets more difficult.
另一个原因很简单 因为 你知道 历史上 我们我们不 And the other reason is just simply because, you know, historically, you know, we we don't.
他们只是不喜欢 它不受历史和先例的支持 我们所做的因素建模实际上与胜利者的问题是一致的 这只是询问我们倾向于远离的领域 只是不符合我们的风格 添加 嗯 你知道 远离商品名称中的防御 They just don't. It's not supported by the history and the precedence and the, uh, the factor modeling that we do that actually does tying with victors question, which is just asking about sectors that we tend to stay away from, just don't work with our style, adding, um, you know, stay away from the defensive in commodity names.
我不知道 他们所有的工作 I don't know. they all work.
并不是说它们不适合这种风格 你也不应该完全不适合 It's not that they don't work with the style, and you shouldn't completely.
我的意思是 如果你在一个地区看到很多设置 而且很有效 你应该试着去那个地区 I mean, if you're seeing lots of set ups in an area and it's working, you should try to go in that area.
但是 你知道 我们要把它想成 你知道 我给了他们一个记过 But, you know, we do to think of it as, you know, I'm giving them a demerit.
我可能不是很看好这些股票 但你知道 当你投资公共事业股 当你投资食品股和烟草股以及防御性股票时 面对硬周期性股票的组合 比如报纸 钢铁 石油 这些在很大程度上是受商品和经济的影响 所以可能会有更大的波动 I may not be as aggressive in them, but you know, when you get into utilities, when you get into food stocks and tobaccos and and the defensive names, and against the combinings that the hard cyclicals, like the papers, the steels, the oils, these are moving on a large part on underline commodities and the economy, so there could be more volatile.
所以 就像我说的 这些也有优点 So those, I would, you know, just give, like I said, the merits too.
这么说吧 我的排名没有那么高 I don't don't rank as high, let's put it that way.
我什么时候才能完全远离他们 When am I gonna completely stay away from them?
不 不 因为谁知道呢 我还没聪明到知道油价是否会出现新的牛市 油价会涨到 你知道的 250美元一桶 No, no. Because who knows? I'm not smart enough to know if there's a new bull market in oil, and oil's gonna go to, uh, you know, $250 a barrel.
我不知道 所以 你知道 这可能是一个伟大的牛市发生在这些领域之一 I don't know that. So it may be, you know, a great bull market that's taken place in one of these areas.
在历史上 我们曾经有过这样的时刻 特定的商品在很长一段时间内表现良好 We have had some of those, uh, times in in history where you had specific, uh, commodities that did well for an extended period of time.
我觉得公平地说 今年他们的名字交换得还不错 Well, I think in fairness, we've traded their own names reasonably well this year.
所以 我的意思是 有很多机会去攫取一些利益 So, I mean, there's plenty of opportunities to to grab a few chunks.
所以 我 我 这绝对是 最好的集会之一 So, yeah, I-I yeah, this has been in one of the, definitely one of the better rallies.
然后还有能量 蠢蛋 问我们能不能再快速回顾一下如何识别道歉 And and energy, um, dumb, is asking if we can revisit paraplays real quick how to identify Apologies.
我不确定我是在书中忽略了这一点还是在网上通过旅游山交易 Not sure if I'm overlooking this in the books or trading through tour hills online.
在马克的书中有一节详细解释了一对 A thuffle a section in mark's book that goes into a detailed explanational pair.
这是一个忽略它 因为它是一个特定的部分 详细描述了要寻找的确切参数 It's an overlooking it, because it's a specific section that details the exact parameters to look for.
所以我要 我要把书还给你 So I'm just going to, I'm just going to point you back book.
我认为我的第一本书可能是最好的 I think my, my 1st book, does probably the best job.
还有 还有 那个那就是我特别想说的权力 And, and, uh, that that's, uh, where I specifically talk about powerplace.
塔索斯是这里的新成员 Tassos is a new member here.
恕我直言 你所说的和你所做的之间似乎有差距 With all the respect, there seems to be advergence between what you're saying, what you do.
一方面 你讲硬便士环境 熊市坐稳权力 On one hand, you talk about hard penny environment, bear market sitting power.
另一方面 你上周买了15个名字 On the other hand, you bought 15 names last week or so.
可以解释这种差异吗 好吧 首先 我说的和做的之间没有分歧 Can explain this divergence? Okay? 1st of all, there is no diverge between what I say and I do.
我觉得你应该听仔细一点 或者你来这里的时间还不够长 And I think maybe you should listen a little more carefully, or maybe you haven't been on here long enough.
但底线是 我说的是 我一直在努力不超过10%到25% But the bottom line is, I'm talking about being, I've been pounding the table of being no more than ten to 25%
投资 如果事情不顺利 就不投资 invested, and if things aren't working, to not invest
或者 你知道 不要从那里增加 at all, or, you know, to not increase from there.
嗯 是的 在哪里 我们不交易任何股票意味着什么 So, uh, yes, where? Where does it mean that we're not going to trade any stocks?
我没有水晶球 I don't have a crystal ball.
我不能告诉你股票是要上市还是要倒闭 I can't tell you if the stock's setting up or going to fail.
如果我能做到这一点 我将成为一个万亿富翁 If I could do that, I'd be a trillionaire.
但我们的底线是 我们要做的就是测试它 But, but the bottom line is, so what we do is we test it.
而且 坦率地说 我认为 你知道 你的评论与我们从成千上万的成员那里听到的相反 And and, quite frankly, I-I think, you know, your comment is the opposite of what we hear from thousands of members that I am.
但正如你所能想象的那样 我没有做任何不同的事情 或者玛格丽特 她没有做任何不同的事情对他来说 是10年 对我来说 是30年 But as consistent as you can possibly imagine, I mean, I have done nothing different or when Margaret, she has done nothing different for in his case, for a decade, in my case, for three decades.
嗯 我们要试水 我们要我们要买一些股票 Um. We're going to put our toe in the water and we're going to and we're going to buy some stocks.
这不是典型的投资组合 This is not a model portfolio.
好吧 让我们直说吧 我想把话说清楚 OK, let's get that straight. I want to get that straight once again.
这不是典型的投资组合 This is not a model portfolio.
你不应该属于我 如果我放了30个名字 那是因为30个名字成立并越狱了 You shouldn't be mine. If I put 30 names on, it's because 30 names set up and broke out.
这并不意味着我拥有30个名字 It doesn't mean that I own 30 names.
这并不意味着玛格丽特她有30个名字 It doesn't mean Margaret she owns 30 names.
这并不意味着你应该拥有30个名字 And it doesn't mean you should own 30 names.
你不应该 你应该买几个 如果它们效果很好 你就再买几个 然后集中在几个名字上 You should not. You should be buying a couple of them, if they're working great, you buy a few more, and then you get concentrated in a handful of names.
我们每天都有像你这样的人来 We have people like yourself that are coming on every single day.
所以我们不能 比如 在1月份的股票 然后 当他们工作的时候 我们不能在2月 3月 4月增加更多的股票 我们必须有一个持续的股票安排 So we can't, like, put on the stocks that are in January, and then, as they're working, and we don't put more stocks on in February, march, april, we have to have a constant flow of stock setups.
如果他们是为新投资者服务的 那么他们的起点可能与你不同 If they're there for new investors, they have a different starting point than may be you.
所以 嗯 所以 是的 我们将投资股票 我们将投资任何已经建立的股票 它们将继续下去 So, um. So yes, we're going to put on stocks, and we're going to put on whatever stocks set up, they're going to go on.
但是 你必须接受 你必须 你必须权衡我的评论 However, you have to take that, and you have got to, you've got to weigh that against my comments.
风险模型 也就是我们现在的stem模型 我们会给你各种各样的方法来定义我们是处于一个容易赚钱的环境还是一个困难的环境 以及你应该如何积极地利用这些名字 The risk model, the which we now have, the stem model, we're giving you all kinds of ways to define whether we're in an easy dollar a hard penny environment, and how aggressive you should be getting in those names.
所以还是那句话 你不应该买所有15个品牌的股票 So again, you should not be buying all 15 names.
如果你听我的 你只会得到10% 也许20% 如果你做得好 也许50% 就像马克刚刚告诉你的 他投资的比例没有超过50% 可能是在去年 And and if you're following my lead, you're only going to be, you know, 10 %, maybe 20 %, maybe 50 if you're doing good, as Mark just told you, he hasn't been more than 50% invested, probably in the last year.
如果他有过 但时间很短 平均来说 马克 你认为你的 你的投资敞口在你知道 当然 自从我们达到顶峰 我们来谈谈这个 And if he has, it's been for very short stense and on average, mark, what is your Do you think your, your invested exposure has been in the You know, certainly since we tops, let's talk about that.
自从我们有了手机信号 我就一直 你知道 说 我们 我们 你知道 不要在这里有攻击性 保持轻一点 Since we went on a cell signal, and I've been, you know, saying, we, we, you know, not to get aggressive here, and to stay very light.
你觉得你的平均 接触量是多少 呃 从去年 对 去年二月开始 大概 平均 大概20% 对吧 What is your, you think your average, uh, exposure has been, um, boy, since last, yeah, last February, maybe, on average, probably 20 %, maybe, right?
想想看 假设你投资了20%平均止损率大概是5% So just think about that. You know, let's just say you went 20% invested and you had an average stop of, will say, 5 %.
这意味着 你知道 这大约是总股本的1 25% So that means that that's about, you know, 1.25% of total equity.
如果你被阻止了 如果你这样做了四次 你仍然只损失5% 4%或5% If you got stopped out of everything, if you did that four times, you still only lost 5 %, four or 5 %.
这是15或20只股票 So there's your 15 stocks or 20 stocks.
李是在问 嗯 你是否有什么理由可以分享一下为什么结肠能源股会感谢 增长的需求仍然存在 Li is asking, um, if there was any reason that you could share why the colon energy stocks were thanking, the increase need is still there.
请说出你的知识 Please come up with your knowledge.
哦 为什么 如果你不知道的话 中国的贪婪显示出了一些虚弱和经济 因此 能源的需求不会那么大 And, uh, why? If you don't know, china, with their covet is uh, showing some weakness and or economy, as a result, energy would not be as demanded.
首先我要说 如果你担心智者 你可能不会这么做 So let me 1st say this If that you're going to worry about the wise, you're probably not going to do that.
好得像个叛徒 好吧 如果你是一个价值买家你承受了巨大的损失你想要形成一个大的论点 但你知道 明智的 明智的 为什么这对我来说最重要的是地窖比买家多 That good as a traitor. All right, um, it may be if you're a value buyer and you're holding through big losses and you want to form a big thesis and all that, but you know, the wise, the wise, the why that's most important to me is that there's more cellars than buyers.
这就是原因 这才是真正的妻子 That's the why, that's the true wife.
为什么酒窖比买家多 Why there are more cellars than buyers?
我不能告诉你 我的意思是 石油下降 你知道 如果我们看 我们可以看U-S-O 只是一个快速的代理 你可以看到石油下降很大 对吧 I can't tell you. I mean, oils down, you know, if we look at, we could just look at U-S-O, just for a quick proxy, you can see oils down big here, right?
嗯 所以 他们将会 他们将会 这些股票将会根据潜在的石油价格 你知道的 经济 中东的战争而变动 Um. So again, they're gonna, they're gonna be, uh, these stocks are gonna move based on underlying oil prices, uh, you know, economy, uh, war in the Middle East.
我的意思是 乌克兰有更多 选择你的理由 I mean, more in Ukraine. Pick your, pick your reason.
原因有很多 And there's, uh, tons of reasons.
我不知道 马克 为什么今天石油股票下跌了 I don't know. B- uh, mark, why is, why are oil stocks down today?
是啊 你说对了 这不是真的 这不是真的那么重要 Yeah, it's to your point. It's not really, it's not really that important.
但我的猜测是 我认为人们可能担心全球经济放缓 But my, my guess, would be, uh, I think there's probably fears of, uh, global slowdown.
在鲍勃看来 他们说的是中国封锁整个经济 To bob's point, they're talking about China keeping its entire economy lockdown.
那就少了很多需求 你知道 像will这样的东西 Well, that's a lot less demand for, you know, things like will.
这正是我们想说的 而且我们已经说了很长一段时间了 关于这些由商品驱动的名字 就是 你知道 它们 它们是由这些因素驱动的 你知道 风向变化 你知道 就像 嗯 随着风向变化 嗯 这些行业的预测和分析瞬间改变 And this is precisely what we're trying to say, and we've been saying for quite some time now, about these commodity driven names, is that, you know, they're, they're driven by these factors that, you know, the the winds change, you know, it's like, uh, as the winds change, the uh, the prognostication and the the analysis of these industries change in a heartbeat.
一分钟内出现了恶性通货膨胀 油价正在飙升 One 1 min there's hyper inflation. Oil prices are soaring.
下一分钟我们要担心的是经济放缓 UH, next minute we're worried about a slowdown and worry about
经济衰退 你知道的 所以 你知道 这些不是增长领域 也不是世俗领域 但是智者对我来说并不重要 除了 a recession, you know. So, so, again, you know, these are not growth the areas, and they're not the secular areas, so, but the wise are not important to me, except
如果它们的形式是收益 销售 利润率 价格和相对实力 if they're in the form of earnings, sales, margins, price and relative strength.
这些才是我所关注的智慧 Those are the wise that I I'm concentrating on.
重要的智慧 蕾妮问你能不能去看看M-A-R区 The important wise. Renee is asking if you can look at M-A-R area.
是的 让我再说一件事 Yeah. And let me just say another thing too.
你知道很多人会这样所以这会给分析师带来很多麻烦 You know a lot of people that so this will gets these analysts and so much trouble.
他们会想出各种各样的理由来解释为什么一只股票应该表现更好 为什么它有价值 They come up with all these these reasons why a stock should be doing better and why it's value.
与此同时 股市上涨了22波 Meanwhile, the stocks are 22 rolls of strength.
这是一个急剧下降的趋势 在第四阶段下降趋势中达到52周以来的最低点 It's in a nose dive down trend, hitting a 52 week low in a stage four down tren.
他们会说 为什么会这样 因为 你知道 他们应该赚这个 或者他们正在赚这个 他们正在赚这个 这是一个合理价格的增长 或者 你知道 它低于它的收入 And they're saying, why it should be Because, you know, they should earn this, and or they're earning this, they're earning this, and and this is grow growth at a reasonable price, or, you know, it's below its earnings.
你真的认为 你知道 比市场更重要吗 Do you really think, you know, more than the market?
你知道吗 网飞公司现在很混乱 You know, netflix is getting A-A pumbled.
这是有原因的 There's, there's a reason for that.
你知道原因吗 当然 你可能不会 Do you know the reason? For sure, you might not.
我的意思是 现在 也许你知道现在股票下跌了70% 但当股票第一次崩溃时 很多人说 你知道 这是一个便宜的 I mean, now, maybe you do now that the stock's down 70 %, but back when the stock 1st broke, a lot of people are saying, you know, this is a bargain here.
你知道 事情不应该是这样的 You know, this shouldn't be this way.
Facebook 我敢肯定 同样的事情也会发生在亚马逊身上 如果亚马逊遭受重创 并取得重大突破 这可能是未来许多年业绩不佳时期的开始 而不是几十年 Facebook. This shouldn't And I'm sure the same thing will happen with the Amazon, if Amazon gets clobbered and has a big break, which will be probably the beginning of the under of an underperformance period for many years, of not decades.
每个人都会说 这是世界上最好的买入机会 Everybody will say it's a, oh, it's the greatest buying opportunity in the world.
不应该这样做 原因如下 There shouldn't be doing this. Here's the reasons why.
为什么 为什么 当你开始思考这个问题时 为什么 Why? Why? When you start getting into that, why?
你开始形成这样的观点 那就是 让我告诉你 你有大麻烦了 And you start forming that opinion, that's, let me tell you something, you're in big trouble.
这时候你就不客观了 嗯 That's when you're not objective. Um.
好了 马里奥特 你知道 这是一个 再次 这很奇怪 因为 你知道 你现在的经济可能在放缓 而股票在上涨 嗯嗯 All right, so, mariot, you know, this is one that, again, it's bizarre because, you know, you have the economy now maybe slowing, and the stock was rallying, uh um.
你知道 如果你试图找出原因 你知道 这将是 与总司长很难 因为 实际上 由于利率上升 我相信有人可以告诉你为什么 呃 你知道 我有朋友 是一些顶尖的分析师 你知道的 世界上不确定的行业组织 他们给我的所有原因股票应该做的事情 不断地表现 总是错误的 不断地买狗屎股票或者推荐表现不佳的狗屎股票 You know, again, if you were to try to figure out why, you know, it would be, it would be hard with Mariot, because, really, with interest rates going up, I'm sure someone out there can tell you why, uh, you know, I have friends that are some of the top analyst, you know, in the world on uncertain industry groups, and they give me all the reasons why stocks should be doing something and constantly underperformed, are constantly wrong, and constantly buying dog shit stocks or or recommending dog shit stocks that are not performing.
嗯 所以 嗯 像万豪酒店这样的酒店 你知道 这是不稳定的 Uh, so again with, uh, with something like a Marriott, you know, this is just volatile here.
你知道 现在没有底 这是枢轴点 在这里 You know, there's no base now, this was the pivot point, right here.
它试图反弹 然后出现了大幅波动 It tried to rally, then you got that volatility, that big wide volatility.
你得到了这些形状 你知道吗 如果你想在越狱的时候再在这里买 嘭 就停了 You got these shaped here. You know, if you tried to buy it here in the breakout again, boom, stopped out.
现在你得到一个真正的交叉 你得到一个上升 Now you get a heartily cross over, you get a run up.
现在它往回拉 到处都是 Now it's pulling back here, and it's all over the place.
看起来还可以 我是说 这已经接近最近爆发的那种关系了 So it looks okay. I mean, it it's close to the ties it broke out recently.
你知道 在一个好的市场里 这种回调可能是可以买到的 This pull back, you know, in a good market, is probably buyable.
但同样的 如果它不是来自一个基础 你不是来自一个良好的 紧凑的切入点 那么我对这只股票不感兴趣 But again, if it's not coming out of a base, and you're not coming out of a nice, tight entry point, then I'm not interested in this stock.
我不会买这支股票的 I'm not gonna buy the stock.
每次的答案都是一样的 The answer's gonna be the same every single time.
我不管万豪酒店从现在开始上涨500% 我还是不会碰它 And I don't care if Marriott goes up 500% from here, I'm still not gonna touch it.
因为我必须进行交易 就像骑马一样 Because I have to get on trades, like getting on a horse.
我必须继续交易而且我必须继续交易 I've got to get on the trade and and and I got to stay on the trade.
这不是 这不是如果股价上涨的问题 这是 我可以继续持有 而不是被炒鱿鱼 It's not, it's not a matter if the if the stock goes higher, it's a matter of, I can stay on it and not get bucked off.
这总是有风险的 就像你要去评估 你知道 骑马 It's it's always the risk, just like if you were to go and and you would assess, you know, riding a horse.
我在我的一本书里讲过这个故事 如果你骑着一匹狂奔的马 它可能会跑到围栏的另一边 但你走了三步就脸朝下倒在土里 这并不重要 I tell this story in one of my books, where, um, if you're on this wild bucking horse, it may get to the other side of the corral, but your face down in the dirt after three steps, it doesn't really matter.
这就是为什么我们要远离德瓦尔的嚎叫 And that's why we stay away from deval's howling.
帕特里克问 对于自然反应是否有任何参数 对于emors 对于自然反应 是的 是的 但是你可以量化 Patrick is asking if there are any parameters for natural reactions, for emors, for a natural reaction, yeah, well, yeah, but that you can quantify.
我想说 你知道 嗯 我们要量化具体的数字 And that I would want to say, you know, um, we're going to quantify specific numbers?
不 不 嗯 你知道 真的 一个自然的反应就是在它爆发之后 在上升趋势中回调 或者甚至回调 你知道 到爆发 或者在爆发中回调 No, no, um, you know, really, a natural reaction is simply a pull back within the uptren after it breaks out, or even a pull back, you know, to the breakout, or back within the breakout.
就像我们这里有Anthem 你知道 来到这里 停了几天 Like here we've got Anthem, you know, comes out here, pulls back for a couple days.
直到它回到新的高地 我们才知道这是一种自然反应 We don't know this is a natural reaction until it gets back at the new high ground.
网球运动是对我们的考验 它能以多快的速度回到新的高地 Tennis ball action is the is the test, can we and also how fast it gets back into new high ground?
这就是网球运动 So, and that's tennis ball action.
所以如果你往回漂流五天 然后两天后你就回到了一个新的高地 So if you drift back for five days, and then in two days you're back a new high ground.
太好了 这是伟大的行动 这就是网球运动 That's great. That's great action. That's tennis ball action.
希望我们有足够的量 Hopefully we've got volume coming in.
这就是我之前讲过的那卷 That's that subsequent volume that I talked about earlier.
现在这里 你看 你下降了1 2 3 4天 一天之内 砰 你就回到了新的高地 Now here again. You see you come off one, two, three, four days down, within one day, boom, you're right back on the new high ground.
再过几天 你就失败了 Couple more days, you fall through.
这是一种自然反应 对吧 好的 这是自然反应 That's a natural reaction, right? Okay, again, here natural reaction.
你把这个小的设置为小的 实际上是很小的 一个欺骗区 你跳出来 You set that nice little to little, actually a little tiny little, a cheat area, you break out.
这是自然的 现在 这个 That's natural. Now, this,
我们现在有点不自然了 对吧 we're getting a little unnatural now, right?
这有点不正常 这向你们展示了我们已经到达了一个点 你们知道 这是非常常见的 我总是指出 在你经历了两三个自然反应之后 这就是波动性出现的地方 This is a little abnormal. So that's showing you that now we've reached that point where, and this is, you know, very common, which I always point out, after you go through two or three natural reactions, that's where the volatility comes in.
通常这是在10%到25%的利润之后 有时甚至高达40%或50% Usually that's after anywhere between a ten and 25% profit, as much as sometimes 40 or 50 %.
在这个范围内 我发现利润在10%到15%到40%到50%之间 这是波动交易---上行预期 In that range, I found that between ten or 15% and 40 or 50% profit, that's the swing trade A-A-A upside expectancy.
从那个点开始 你就会进入很多次 直到你进入一个大的回调 削弱之前的低点 不正常的动作 实际上在较长时间内是正常的 From that point, then you start getting into a lot of all till you've got to go to a big pullbacks, undercuts of previous lows, abnormal action that is actually normal in the longer time frame.
但这是为了实现更大的移动 But that's to get to that much bigger move.
现在你将不得不经历一些波动 但是 是的 自然的反应 在突破之后的回调 嗯 在突破之上或仅仅在突破之上 然后在几天或几周内相对较快地恢复 Now you're going to have to go through some volatility, but yeah, natural reaction, just pull backs post break out, um that are are are contained within the uptren above or just above the breakout, and and recover relatively quickly within a number of days or weeks.
好吧 约瑟夫在问 如果他能分享 他从2007年起以大约4到5美元的价格持有的苹果 All right, joseph is asking, what if he could share, uh, he has Apple from 2007 at roughly four or $5.
他问 长期来看 当市场看起来很可怕时 你会怎么做 And he's asking, what you do in the long term, when like that, when the market is looking scary?
以现金形式持有 或者持有股票 等待市场调整 To basically keep it in cash, or, you know, hold on to the stock and wait until the market corrects.
听着 那时候你是足够聪明的人去买它 你知道 我我现在肯定不会告诉你要不要卖它 Look, you were the ones smart enough to buy it way back then, you know, I I'm certainly not going to tell you whether to sell it or not now.
这是你的选择 我的意思是 你知道的 我想买苹果 你知道 就在最近 被阻止了 That's your that's your choice. I mean, um, you know, would I-I tried to buy Apple, you know, just recently, and got stopped out.
我认为 从长远来看 苹果的增长速度显然是缓慢的 是剧烈的 所以我不知道 I think, you know, longer term, apple's growth is obviously slow, dramatically, um, so I-I-I don't know.
我的意思是 这是一个长期的游戏 我不知道你应该怎么做 I mean, that's, that's a long, long term play that I have no idea what you should do with that.
我很抱歉 但我不会给你建议 你是否应该在这里卖一个苹果 以获得如此巨大的利润 I'm sorry, but I'm, I'm not going to give you advice on whether you should sell a apple here or not with such a giant profit?
我早就走了 很久以前 I would have been long gone, a long time ago.
可能 我是一个波动交易者 所以我一开始就不会出现这种情况 Probably. I'm a swing trader, so I would, I would never be in that situation in the 1st place.
我持有股票不是为了进行长期资本游戏 I don't hold stocks for long term capital games.
亚当在问 你的权力游戏有什么变化吗 Adam is asking, do you have any variations of your power play?
例如 股票上涨了300% E.g. the stock was up 300 %?
但是下降了 经过了40%的修正 Uh, but went down, went through a 40% correction.
这将会有任何变化 不 绝对不是20%不管它又上升了多少 That would have any variation of No, absolutely not the 20 %, regardless of how much it goes up again.
如果你想发明技术 仅仅因为你自己的理论 尽管波动更大 我们应该给它更多的瓶子 If you want to start inventing techniques, just just because of your own theory, although the volatilities more so, we should give it more bottle in the base that.
这很好 但你猜怎么着 我们在这里所做的不是基于我们的意见 That's fine. But guess what? What What we do here is not based on our opinion.
这是基于事实的 它是基于过去100年发生的事情 It's based on facts. It's based on what has taken place over the last hundred years.
根据我的研究 奥尼尔的研究看最大和最快的股票 Based on my study, o'neil study of looking at the biggest and the fastest winning stocks.
我们还没有看到 你知道 从19世纪开始20%的比例就一直保持不变吗 So we haven't seen that. You know, where the 20% has been consistent since the 1800s?
他问 如果你有一天可能会有两到三只股票让你出局 你会把它只算作一只吗 Here he goes asking and the If you have a day where you may have two or three stocks stop you out, do you count that as only one?
当你回顾你最近四五笔渐进式敞口的交易时 When you reflect back when your last four or five trades for progressive exposure?
我不知道为什么我要把三到四只股票算作一只股票 I'm not sure why I would count three or four stocks as one stock.
我不 我不明白迭戈的答案是否定的 I don't, I don't understand that the answer diego is no.
那是那是连续输了两场 三场 四场 或者五场 或者别的什么 That's that's two or three or four losses in a row, or out of five, or whatever might be the case.
嗯 你是在看最近的短裤和市场看起来那么重吗 Um, are you looking at a shorts these days mark with the market look and so heavy?
不 我没有 我一般都选短的那一边 No, I'm not, um, I-I generally stay with the short side.
总之 我不太擅长 Anyway, I'm not very good at it.
我在股市赚了99 9%的钱 I made 99.9% of my, uh, stock market wealth.
从长远来看 我认为没有必要 On the long side, I don't think it's necessary.
市场已经做了很多 The market's already done quite a bit.
我觉得我们还没到这个地步 Um, you know, I don't think we're at this point.
我不认为我们进入的是一个世俗的啤酒市场 I don't think we're entering a secular beer market.
我还没有看到证据 I don't see evidence of that yet.
也许那时我会的 但是 没有答案 马克 我有 你知道 你获得了巨大的回报 把很小的一笔钱变成了数千万美元 Maybe then I would. But, um, no answers, no, mark, I have, you know, you've made big returns, turned a very small amount of money into tens of millions of dollars.
所以我不知道 在过去的12年里 仅仅为了10万美元你就一直在做这件事 So I don't know, for just a hundred thousand dollars of all that over the last twelve years that you've been doing this.
她参加了第一个大规模交易员项目 其中有多少是空头 非常少 And she came to the 1st mass trader program, what percentage of that has been on the short side, very little.
实际上我做的少一些 你知道 我觉得这几乎是一种你必须成长的东西 And actually I do less shorting than I, you know, I-I think it's almost like a something you have to have to grow into.
非常小 你是说5%吗 Very little. Do you mean 5 %?
10% 是的 可能少于5个 10 %? Yeah, less than five, probably.
我是说 我还没说过 但是 我想说的是 我以前做得更多 I-I mean, I haven't told with that, but, um, I-I was going to say, I used to do more.
你会意识到 我认为 当你 当你在这个行业成熟 看到你的回报分布从哪里来 你知道 到 And you just realize, I think, as you, as you mature in this business and see where your distribution of returns comes from, you know, to
引用你的话 这是不必要的 quote you, it's just not necessary.
你不需要它 我发现 即使有时当你如果你做大的空仓 如果我做空 它通常是小的 或者我可能有一些多头 我将展示其中一个指数 你知道 从一个指数到另一个指数 但它不是回报的主要驱动力 You don't need it. And I've found, even sometimes when you if you're trading bigger short position, if I short at all, it's usually small, or maybe I have a few longs, and I'll, I'll show one of the indexes to sort of, uh, you know, leak out against one against the other, but it's not anything that is a major driver of returns.
但我想说的是 你知道 我的眼睛没有集中在球上 But what I was going to say is, you know, then my eyes are not focused on the ball.
嗯 我真的想在纠正期寻找 你知道 新的领导来自哪里 而不是 你知道 使用标准普尔 你知道 或或每天下降500 或上升 诸如此类的事情 Uh, as well. I'm, I really want to be looking in corrective periods for, you know, where the new leadership is coming from, rather than, you know, use the S-P, you know, or or dow down 500 a day, or up and that type of thing.
真有趣 你 你好像总是说我正要说的话 It's funny how, you, you always seem to say the thing that I'm just about to say.
所以 好工作 嗯 这正是我想说的 在那段时间里 你知道 我经常 你知道 看短裤 然后我 我 So, good job. Um, that's precisely what I was going to say, is that during that time, you know, I I've often, you know, looking at shorts and then I-I MS.
那些正在崛起的股票 那些正在崛起的股票 你知道 这些是我真正感兴趣的 那些在市场调整时正在崛起的领导者 stocks that are setting up, and the stocks that are holding up, you know, those are the ones that I'm really interested in on those leaders that are setting up while the markets in a correction.
当你在那里 你知道 做空时 你有时你会错过 你你真的错过了最好的机会那将会 呃 释放那些低谷 And while you're over there trying to, you know, trade shorts, you sometimes you're missing, uh, you you're really missing the best opportunity that's about to, uh, to to, uh, unleash off those lows.
所以我在市场困难的时期 我更感兴趣的是做后期分析 寻找下一个上涨的领导者彼得斯问 你是否在新的牛市出现时使用渐进式敞口 你会做一些较小的仓位规模 最初尝试一下 然后当名字开始起作用时 你会扩大到更大的和完整的仓位规模 对以下或追随者的设置 So I'm during the the market periods that are difficult, I'm more interested in doing post analysis and looking for the next leaders on the upside Peters asking if you use progressive exposure in the new bull market emerges, where you would be doing some smaller position sizing, initially dip your toe in the water, then when the names start working, and you will scale up into larger and full position sizes on the following or the follower of setups.
然而 这难道不是更多的次要和落后的人 而不是领导者吗 Wouldn't that, though, be then bind more of the secondary and laggards, as opposed to the leaders?
说这个问题 不 它不会 因为你不会在贵族市场的头几周或几个月里遇到落后者 Says this question? No, it would not, because you're not going to get into laggards in the 1st weeks or months of a noble market.
你说的是在一个新兴市场 你的领导需要几个月的时间来建立 You're talking about in a newable market, your leaders are going to set up over months.
好吧 也许你很小 你的规模更小 如果你进入最早期的公司 他们绝对是关键的领导者 So okay, maybe you are small, you have smaller size, if you get into the very early ones, and they are the absolute key leaders.
好吧 一个小的位置会有很大的影响 Well, a small position's gonna pinkle a long way.
嗯 但是 但是 再说一遍 不 你的瓦格纳不会发生的 Um and and, but, but again, no, your waggards are not gonna happen.
在接下来的几个月 甚至一年内 你都不会有落后者 You're not gonna get laggards until many months, if not even a year, down the road.
事实上 你可以有很多更好的公司 通常在市场真正触底并处于上升阶段时才成立 Um, you can have, matter of fact, a lot of the better names very often don't set up until the market, you know, is really bottomed and is in an uptread.
你回头看看尼古拉斯·达维斯和杰西·利弗莫尔这样的人 你知道 他们中的一些人 你知道 如果你读他们的书 我们会说 你知道 我甚至会开始关注市场直到它涨了六个月 You go back and you look at guys like, uh Nicholas Darvis and Jesse Livermore, you know, some of them will, you know, if you read in their books, we'll say, you know, I'd even start looking at the market until it was up for six months.
这有点像一个限定词 有些老派的人会用这个限定词 市场必须是上涨第一的 That's, that's sort of like a qualifier that, you know, I some of the old school guys used to use, is that the market had to be up 1st.
所以 很明显 你知道 在那个时候 主要的股票早就消失了 So, again, that would have obviously, you know, the leading stocks would have been long gone at that point.
所以 同样的 你不需要只交易绝对关键的领导者 So, and again, you don't have to trade in just the absolute key leaders.
你知道 在整个牛市中会有很多很多的名字 You know, there's lots and lots of names that are are going to set up all throughout the bull market.
你开始得到那些真正落后的名字 You start getting those real lagger names.
这是晚期 那已经是晚期了 That's late stage. That's way late stage.
劳拉想问你能不能看一下你最近做的P-A和W交易 我猜是周三 就像你今天看到的 在我们的名字里 Um, laura is asking if you could review the P-A and W trade that you entered late on, I guess it was Wednesday, um, just what you were seen in today that got into the name of us.
只是看到一只股票 你知道 在最近的回落中 它保持得非常好 你知道 它试图进入新的高地 新的高地在这里 Just seeing a stock that, you know, held up really well, you know, during this recent pull back, as, you know, trying to move into new high Ground here, new brought high ground here.
这是真正的表演 我们真的很好 It was really acting. We're really great.
嗯 所以 你知道 在一个狭窄的区域 根据自然反应进行交易 希望市场 你知道 在那里触底 而这些 这些股票支撑得很好 会是一个 会是一个向前发展的领导者 但很明显 市场对它施加了压力 虽然这可能仍然有效 但不 我们只是回到支撑基础的地方 Um. So just, uh, you know, from a tight area, just trading it out of that natural reaction and hoping that the market, you know, was bottoming there, and these, these stocks that were holding up well, would be a, would be a leader going forward, but obviously the market has weighed on it, and while this might still work, no, we're just pulling back back to that brace the base.
你知道 市场显然在造成一些波动 You know, the market is obviously causing some volatility.
这就是我今天在推特上说的 And that's what I just tweeted this today, that around.
在低点 你要小心 因为那里有很多波动 The lows, you got to be careful, because there's, that's where there's a lot of volatility.
尽管你可能会在市场中选择底部 但可能还是会有太多的球 因为你还没有处在一个宽松的美元环境中 And although you may pick the bottom in the market, there just might still be too much ball tilly, because you're not in that easy dollar environment yet.
你还处于困境中 你知道自己还没有立足之地 You're still in the hard penny, where you know you haven't got your footing
以你现在的交易风格 in the style that you're may be trading.
因此 更重要的是要忘记市场的底部 So it's more important to forget about the the bottom in the market.
关键是股市的基本面如何变化 The key is how the stocks acting from the bases.
这是一种反馈 告诉你 好吧 它不工作 And this is a type of feedback that's telling you, okay, it's not working.
现在 我们得到了一大堆的股票 你知道 我们在这里尝试 当一些在工作的时候 有一些钱可以赚 我们把很多钱归还给那些不工作的名字 这真的没有任何净进展 Right now, we're getting a whole bunch of stocks that, you know, we're trying here, and while some are working, and there is some money to be made, and we're giving back a lot of it on the names that aren't working, and that's really just not making any net progress.
这就是关键所在 So that's, that's the key here.
但这真的只是教科书式的 教科书式的做法 john问 在一次大的调整之后 就像我们正在经历的 很多股票 你知道 在它们的基础的左边有大量的供应 我们需要看到一个基础才能看到第四阶段变成第一阶段吗 But this is really just a textbook, a textbook play, uh, john asking after a large correction, like we're experiencing, where number of stocks have a, you know, heavy supply on the left hand side of their basis, would we need to see a base in order to see a Stage Four turning into a Stage One?
在第二阶段吗 在你有兴趣进入之前 要把这只股票供应回以前的高点 In Stage two? Action for the stock to get through alive, that supplying it back towards those old highs before you would be interested in entering them.
好吧 我我有点糊涂了 首先 这个阶段关注第四阶段的股票 Okay, I I'm confused. 1st of all, a stage looking at stocks that are in stage four.
他说 在调整之后 很多股票经历了第四阶段进入下一阶段时左手边还有很多供给 So he's saying, after the correction, where a lot of stocks going through their stage four have a lot of supply on left hand side as they go into their next stage too.
你需要他们恢复很多 嗯 右手边的发展 在他们对你有兴趣之前回到以前的高度吗 Would you need them to recover a lot of that, uh, right hand side development, to get back up towards those old highs before they would become interesting to you?
解决这个问题的方法是远离那些有巨大调整的股票 比如它们下跌了60%或70% 基础在你拥有所有供应的地方建立起来 Well, the way, the way to address that is to stay away from the stocks that have giant corrections, like they're down 60, 70 %, and the bases are setting up where you've got all that supply.
在左边 我们就说 好的 呃呃 On the left side, let's just say, okay, uh uh.
你知道 netflix变成了一个上升的舞台 但你知道 它在这里停留了很长时间 You know, netflix turns into a stage to uptren but, you know, it stays down here for a long time.
这可能是一个非常糟糕的例子 This would be really, this probably a very bad example.
但是 你知道的 这个移动平均线下降了很多 也许变平了 现在你又出现了 But, um, you know this, this moving average comes way down, maybe flattens out, and now you turn up.
通常情况下 当你有大的裂口时 需要很长时间才能形成 而供给量可能在左侧 Usually, when you have that big break, it's gonna take a long time for that to develop, and that supply might be way to the to the left side.
如果你只使用我的趋势模板的参数 你交易 你知道 在52周高点的一定距离内 你离52周高点不是太远 或者你已经跌了50% 你不需要那样做 If you just use the parameters of my trend template, and you're trading, you know, within a certain distance from a 52 week high, you're not too far off to 52 week high, or you're 50% off of it, you're not going to have to that.
间接供应可能不是问题 因为 你知道 从第四阶段开始 已经发生了这么多的时间 That overhead supply isn't probably going to be an issue, because, you know, your so much time has happened, has taken place since that stage four.
现在你可能会进入某种形状的场景 也许你希望它符合权力游戏的标准 而且你不必担心舞台展示的趋势 Now you might get into some kind of these shape scenario, maybe hopefully that meets the power play A-A criteria, and you wouldn't have to worry about the stage show up trend.
但答案是 如果你只是应用规则和测量你就不需要太担心它 But the answer is is that if you're just applying the rules and the measurements you you won't really have to worry about it too much.
但是 你还是要看左边 你要直观地看到供给图是什么样的 But still, you wanna look to the left, and you're gonna have to visually see what the supply picture looks like.
再说一遍 你在给我一个假设 而我 我真的无法回答这个假设的情况 Again, you're giving me a hypothetical, and I-I can't, I can't really answer a hypothetical situation.
你把图表给我看 我就告诉你怎么处理 You show me the chart, and I'll tell you how we deal with it.
但是 你知道 就供给量而言 是的 But, you know, as far as the supply is concerned, uh, yeah.
如果你离高点很远 左边有很多供给 这肯定会降低概率 我可能会远离它 If you're way off the highs and you have a lot of supply to the left, that would definitely lower the probability, and I might stay away from it.
但是 我要找的是坚挺的股票 But, but I'm looking for the stocks that are holding up.
我在找这样的股票 对吧 See, I'm looking for a stock that looks like this, right?
这就是我要找的 这是一只与它的关系密切的股票 That's what I'm looking for. This is a stock that's right near its ties.
所以市场正在抛售 So the market is selling off.
这是否处于一个敏锐的阶段 你知道 试图建立一个IPO基地 但我们只能说这不是一个IPO基地 这有很长的历史 This is in whether it's in a stage sharp trying to, you know, an IPO base, but let's just say this isn't an IPO base, and this is got a long history.
它必须处于上升阶段 This has got to be in a stage to uptrun.
我要找的是这样的股票 它的交易价格在高点附近 所以它比高点低很多 而你有那么多的供应 我可能不会考虑这个 I'm looking for a stock like this that's trading near its highs, so being way, way down off its highs, and you have all that supply, I'm probably not even going to entertain that.
马克 你对生物技术有什么看法 Mark, what is your general opinion on biotechs?
最近 它们非常不稳定 受到了超级严重的打击 Lately, they have been very volatile and getting hit super hard.
他们对你的超级表现有什么看法吗 Do they make a good amount of your super performance?
我不会有一个普遍的看法 I'm not going to have a general opinion.
我要去找股票 你知道 准备好了 I'm just going to look for the stocks, you know, setting up.
如果一个群体中有很多股票在成立和突破 那么我会得出结论 这个群体是一个很好的群体 And if there's a lot of stocks in a group setting up and breaking out, then I would conclude that that group is a good group to be in.
但我也会得出结论 可能有一只股票属于一个糟糕的集团 But I would also conclude that there might be a stock in a bad group.
现在 这个集团做得不是很好 但有一只出色的股票 我仍然会 我仍然会从一个设置中交易那只股票 Now, the group is not doing very well, but there's a standout stock, and I'm still gonna, I'm still gonna trade that stock from a setup.
我不会因为这支股票看起来很弱就不交易它 I'm not gonna not trade a stock just because the group looks weak.
因为很多时候 领导者在团队变得强大之前就离开了 Because a lot of times the leaders take off before the group gets strong.
呃 那么那么 我也不知道 Um, so so again, I don't know.
我现在不能告诉你生物技术 I can't tell you biotechs right now.
我的意思是 看起来现在每个团体都很糟糕 I mean, there's, it looks like every group is pretty much crap right now.
我不知道 马克怎么样 I don't know, how about Mark?
呃 生物技术 一般来说 呃 什么 Uh? Biotechs, generally speaking, uh, what?
这里的地表下是什么样的 What does it look like beneath the surface here?
我想说 总的来说 我非常喜欢生物科技集团 Well, um, I would say generally speaking, I-I like the biotech group a lot.
嗯 这是IBB 我是说 马克喜欢这些 Um, here's the IBB. So, I mean, these likes, mark likes it.
然后群体就一落千丈 And and the groups in a nose dive.
所以他不是从这个角度看问题的 你知道 很明显 我永远不会看到IBV然后说 看r-e-g-n 我在这个问题上仍然有一个小的立场 So that's, that's that he's not looking at it from this perspective, you know, obviously, yeah, oh, I would never look at the IBV and say, well, like, look at R-E-G-N-I still have a small position in this
一个 对吧 嗯 你知道 这个名字是最早出现的名字之一 你知道 当市场在2月下旬或3月触底时 它已经在市场脱手之前创造了新高 one, right? Um, you know, this is, this is a name that was one of the 1st names to break out, you know, back when the market tried the bottom there in late February, march, it was already making new highs before the market came off the load.
但是 你知道 从历史上看 我想说我在生物技术领域有很多大赢家 所以我肯定 你 你知道 生物技术的风险是你要确保你看 如果没有销售警告 你知道你可能需要调整仓位 Um, But, you know, historically, I would say I've had a lot of nice, big winners in biotech, so I definitely, you, you know, the risk there with biotech is you want to make sure you look, if there's no warnings in sales, you just know that you probably need to position size.
你可能会更保守一点 因为这支股票显然不是按基本面交易的 我会给你我对生物科技的总体看法 You may be a little more conservatively, because the stock is clearly not trading on fundamental And I'll give you my, my big picture look on biotechs.
我认为自从科维德以来 生物技术和这类研究和技术已经大大推动了资金的流向 以及它的重要性 I think since Kolvid, that biotech and and that kind of research and technology has gotten a big boost of where dollars will go, and the importance of it.
所以我认为这是一个令人兴奋的领域 So I think that it's a, it's an exciting space.
我认为这一直是一个令人兴奋的领域 一直都是 但更重要的是 我认为这是一个你绝对应该关注的领域 但要从个人名字的角度来看 而不是从群体的角度来看 I think it's always an exciting space, and it has has always been, and it but even more so, I think it's an area that you should definitely be looking at, but looking look from the standpoint of the individual names as opposed of the group.
好吧 还有时间再来一个 Okay, got time for, like, one more.
在那里 鲍勃在这里补充了E-O-L-S 这是一个普通的耳毒素制造商 There. Bob added in here that E-O-L-S, which is a generic otoxs maker.
他们和爱力根达成了和解 这就是为什么那只股票 有了撤销禁令 They settled with Allergan, that's why that stock was, uh, having its big pup, uh, with an injunction of being lifted.
最后一个问题 其实是伯纳德的一个简短问题 So the last question, actually a quick question from Bernard.
伯纳利 我想把它们念成 谷仓巷 Bernardly, I'm hoping to pronounce them, um, barn Alley.
我猜你会问我 你用的是什么制图系统 I guess you just ask me, what charting system are you using?
马克在这里 我用的是A-E信号 只是让它模仿市场史密斯的样子 所以 你知道 还有 Prognas在问 你能解释一下周末研究中快速收紧周期的加息吗 Mark right here. I'm using A-E signal, just has it to mimic the look of the market smith, so, you know, and also, um Prognas is asking, can you please explain the fast tightening cycle rate hike from the weekend study?
他的问题是 这是否意味着 从这条橙色线来看 市场可以在第一次加息后的三到四个月内见底 也可以升至历史高点 但需要大约两年的时间才能突破 Does that mean, from that orange line, the market can make a low in three to four months from the 1st rate hike, and can go up to all time highs, but takes about two years to break out, is his question.
或者你太夸张了 Or you're reading into it too literally.
这是所有周期的平均值 That's just, that's an average of all the cycles.
这并不意味着市场会以这种方式发展 Um, that doesn't mean that the market's gonna play out that way.
它可以做任何事情 我们不知道它能做什么 It could do anything. We don't know what it can do.
但最重要的是 与不收紧相比 如此快速的收紧周期对市场有抑制作用 而缓慢收紧周期的影响较小 But the bottom line is is that so fast tightening cycles have a suppressive effect on the market, versus no tightening, and slow tightening cycles have a lesser effect.
因此 事实上 如果通货膨胀从这里开始加速 你看到美联储从0 25个百分点上升到0 5个百分点或0 75个百分点 这就是紧缩 So if, in fact, inflation accelerates from here, and you see the fed go from a quarter point to a half a point or three quarters of a point, Well, that's, that's a tightening.
这是一个快速收紧 这就是加速度 That's a fast tightening. That would be an acceleration.
这就是现在市场的折现 That's what the market's discounting right now.
市场正在消化更快的紧缩周期 The market is discounting faster tightening cycle.
那是 你知道 他们只是在玩教科书 And that's, you know, they're just playing out textbook.
嗯 约翰问你能否发布约翰·康诺利他的名字怎么拼 首先 你能否发布链接 也许在平台上 为我们这些没用过推特的人 Um. And John is asking if you could please post the John Connolly how do you spell his name, for one, but can you post the link, perhaps on the platform, for those of us who did not use Twitter?
谢谢 好吧 让我试试 Thanks. All right, let me try to do that.
J-O-N-C-O-N-N-E-L-L-Y 好吧 我想你可以看看我的快速结果疗法 And it's J-O-N-C-O-N-N-E-L-L-Y. All right, I think you can look on my Rapid result therapy.
嗯 分辨率很快 抱歉 快速解决疗法 他们今天解决了很多问题 但是和往常一样 如果有问题我们无法解决 请抄写并调整好它们 为下周做准备 Um, rapid resolution, I'm sorry. Rapid resolution therapy, they get through a lot of questions here today, guys, but as always, any questions we were not able to get through, please copy and pace them and have them ready for next week.
我们必须在下周末回复他们 We certainly have to answer them for next weekend.
还有 任何股票 虽然今天被抛售的股票没有其他几周那么多 原因很明显 Also, any uh stocks, although not nearly as many stocks being thrown out today as we do see in other weeks for obvious reasons.
但这个平台上简单的下拉框功能确实能让你 呃 把你的名字放到马克面前呃 非常快 But the simple drop box feature on the platform does allow you to get, uh, your names in front of mark Uh, real quick.
抱歉 打扰了 但是 因为我看到有人睡着了 我想在他们离开之前把他们接走 Well, sorry, interrupt, but, uh, because I see people dropping off, I want to get em before they leave.
如果你知道 这是快速的条件 If you know, this is fast conditions now.
看起来 嗯在这个市场上有点麻烦了 It seems like, um and and getting a little bit hairy here in the market.
所以 如果事情发生了 或者我在这里 我会回到房间 我会做另一个现场会议 或者我会做一些视频 So if things uh, you know, go or I here, I will come back in the room and I'll do another live session, or I'll do some videos.
所以我不会挽留你 不会留你一个人 So I will won't keep you, won't leave your hanging.
如果 你知道 如果这里的市场变得更疯狂 我这周会待在房间后面 If, uh, you know, if the market gets even wilder here, uh, I'll be in a back in the room during the week.
好了 请继续关注 All right, so stay tuned to that.
当然 这个回放也会在稍后发布 你可以在那里观看今天的问题和交叉的回放 And of course, will also have this replay posted in a few moments, and where you can watch the replay of today's question and intersection.
说到这里 马克 谢谢你的时间 With that said, mark, thanks for your time.
还有马克 你们两个 我们很快会回来的 And Mark again, both of you, and we will get back at it soon.
好吧 我本想今天听到马克·里菲的更多消息 但也许下周吧 All right. I would have liked to hear more from Mark Riffie today, but maybe next week.
当心 Take care.