Welcome back.
Hopefully you came up with some obvious answers
to the energy systems you see around you.
The first would be the computer you're watching this on, or your
cell phone, or if maybe you have it connected to a TV.
Lots of different energy systems that are flo, that
are obvious to us as we look around the room.
But hopefully you saw a lot more as
you look, as you were thinking deeper about it.
The fact that your cords were connected to,
the outlets, and that those outlets were connected to power plants and those power
plants were generating power through maybe nuclear, or coal, or gas, natural gas.
So there are thousands of examples of energy transfer system around us.
Even the smallest from the microchips that are
in our computers and they dissipate heat and
that has become a rate limiting problem for
the, for the chips that are in our computers.
To the energy densities associated with the batteries that are in our cell phones.
We want to have a lot of energy but we don't want to
pay a lot in terms of the volume or in terms of the mass.
So, many examples that we can see all over.
So, what are the drivers for changing the way that we use energy currently?
And I'd like to take this, time to motivate you,
for, first of all why we should study thermodynamics, and
what systems in particular we should look at.
In terms of power generation for many different sectors.
So, let's kind of review.
Let's start with a review of where are we now?
Well, global demands for energy are extraordinarily high.
What you're seeing in this figure are, is a
composite of some photographs that were taken by NASA.
This is, from their science source, and it's entitled
Lighting up the ecosphere.
But these are nighttime shots, again, pieced together around the world,
and you can see the lights from North America are quite bright.
You know, the high population density centers around
the world you can see are quite, quite bright.
But you can also see areas that are quite daw, quite dark as well.
So we can see there's a lot of energy demand,
and there's a lot of energy demand around the world.
Now what I'm showing you is a population cartogram and this was
actually generated by the University of
Michigan professor, physics professor Mark Newman.
And at the time Mark was interested in
trying to generate graphical ways of interpreting data.
He didn't mean to be controversial but he produced a couple of figures here,
and this is the first in the seris I wanted to share with you.
That show you the population. Where what he's done is distorted the size
of the countries based on their population.
So, you can see, you know, the United States is quite large.
China and India, where the bulk of the
global population are currently, are very, very large.
And you can see that, you know, several countries are quite small.
You can see Russia has shrunk considerably.
We can see a distortion here in, in Europe and, and, look
at the distortion in Australia to
represent the low population in those countries.
In the next cartogram, here we can see energy consumption.
So now, we look at the places around the world, and we can see a dramatic shift.
So the United States is now even
more bloated, further than even beyond the population.
But we can see that China and India have shrunk, Russia has expanded.
Australia has expanded some.
But Africa has virtually disappeared,
and Brazil has gone on a significant diet.
So the point is, is that, the, there's countries that use a lot of energy.
But they aren't necessarily countries where the bulk of the population is.
So we have two drivers that we
can see already, developed versus developing nations.
So industrialized nations versus less industrialized nations.
And, sheer population.
Those are both drivers
for global energy consumption.
And this graph shows you the same sort of discussion or same topical points.
Now, of course in a conventional bar graph form.
So, I'm not sure how well you can
read these figures, so I'll explain them to you.
Here, the axis, this is a plot of total population by region.
A four snapshots in time. 1950, 95, 25, and 2050.
1950 and 1995, the data from these two years
are actual data.
The 2025 and 2050 data are projections of where people feel
the estimates are, the estimates are for population growth by region.
And specifically the regions we're looking at are Oceania, North
America, Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, Europe and Asia.
And there's lots of conclusions we can draw,
just based on just looking at this figure.
First of all, we can look at what is the current population,
the 1995 data, sort of. Sort of, current.
Not quite up to the year 2013.
And we can see that the bulk of the population currently exists in
Asia and we can also see where is the projected growth going to occur.
And we can see that the projections show that the population
growth between now and 2050 is almost exclusively in developing nations.
In what's often referred
to as the Bric nations.
Bric being Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
And we can see again, while we already have a significant population in Asia,
that population is, is projected to grow by almost 2 billion people.
And there are a couple of other features that we can look at.
It's projected that Europe will actually lose
population, actually see a decline in population.
Africa will see an increase.
Latin America and Caribbean will see an increase too.
North America is projected to almost flatline.
So the point of this is that energy, as we
expect, is driven by developed versus non less developed nations.
Industrialization does of course drive energy demands.
But so does population growth.
And population growth in Asia is
expected to increase dramatically. So, we expect global energy
demands to dramatically increase in Asia. So
let's take that information, and let's couple that to the next slide.
Here we have the gross national product per capita in US
dollars as a function of energy use per capita in
millions of Btu.
And we'll talk about energy units here, but this is
the British Thermal Unit, let's say unit of energy here.
So this is increasing energy, this is
increasing GNP, both on a per capita basis.
GNP is generally an indicator of the quality of life.
Sort of, and it's also a general indicator of developed nation.
And we can see here, we have Japan, has a very high GNP.
Germany, France, United Kingdom, US, we can see are all above average, okay?
Now I should say that these data are taken from World Bank data.
This is, this is as of 1995, so I took
these data that are available to the public, and plotted these.
And you have to decide, you know, which countries
you want to include when you calculate these averages.
So, I think I chose approximately the top 30 countries,
something like that.
In terms of the top GNP producers and top energy users
so you would get a different average if you included more countries.
And that average would actually go, decrease both in
terms of GNP and in terms of energy per capita.
The point being is that these developed nations are high
GNP and high energy users, both on a per capita basis.
And I intentionally left
this a little bit hard for you to read because I wanted you
to see that India and China, circa 1995, so a little bit dated.
Were very low GNP, and very low energy use on a per capita basis.
So we've already discussed how we expect
to see significant population growth in these countries.
We would also expect to see significant
increase in quality of life and industrialization.
Both of which are going to move these countries in the North East direction.
So they're going to move from this quadrant to this quadrant.
Those are going to be compounding effects.
An increasing population that used more energy per capita.
So now what I want you to ask yourself, if population growth
is projected to grow by 2 billion people in the next 50 years,
how much new power would we need if each one of those people, individuals, used
150 watt light bulb? So 2 billion people, one light bulb each.
What's going to be the increase, the new energy, the new power
demand, that we're going to have to provide just to meet that need?
And we'll discuss that when we start next time.