好吧 每个人 欢迎来到学习课 不好意思 是周四的QNa课 Okay, everyone. Welcome to a study session, I'm sorry, a QN A session here on Thursday.
我们会过一遍 过一遍你们的问题你们可以在市场上快速输入这些问题 Um, we're gonna go over, go through your questions here in just a 2nd you can type those in and real quick on the market mark.
嗯 所以我们这里有一个相当大的反弹 Um. So we got a pretty big rally here.
这是意料之中的事 This is to be expected on
就像我之前说过的 any signs, as I've said before.
只有看到通货膨胀的迹象 才会导致利率投机 利率将接近周期的终点 这对股票有利 And only see signs of inflation, that's gonna lead to interest rate speculation, that interest rates will be nearing the end of their cycle and be good for stocks.
但我认为这又是一个经典的啤酒陷阱 从某种意义上说 这可能并不一定是啤酒市场的反弹一定要达到新的低点 但从某种意义上说 指数开始反弹 现在道琼斯指数已经从低点反弹了16%左右 But I think this is once again a classic beer trap, in the sense that, uh, it may not be necessarily a beer market rally that has to go to new lows, but in the sense that the indexes start rallying, you've got about a 16% or so rally in the dow right now, off the lows.
但这也是业余投资者开始买入股票的原因 仅仅因为他们认为市场正在远离他们 而不是等待 你知道 以一种有纪律的方式 等待股票正确设置 不仅如此 还要试水以确保他们在工作 But again, this is where the amateur runs in there and starts buying stocks, just simply because they think the markets getting away from them, instead of waiting, you know, in a disciplined manner, waiting for stocks to set up correctly, and not only that, but testing the waters to make sure that they're working.
再来一次 像A-B-j这样的东西 想从这里冒出来 然后蹲下来 再重新出现 Um, once again, something like A-B j's here, you know, trying to break out here, then squat it and start reasserting itself.
当然了 我就是在那里买的 Uh, that's, of course, where I bought it.
现在蹲下 再蹲下 所以我们要看看这些股票 呃 在这里的表现 P-C-V-X和其他来自权力游戏类型的股票 呃 这里的情况 如果市场真的很强劲 我们会 当我说强劲的时候 显然指数是强劲的 但这对我们没有任何好处 And now squat, squatting again. So we have to see how these stocks, uh, pan out here, P-C-V-X and other one coming out of a power play type, uh, a situation here again, if the market is really strong, and we're gonna, again, when I say strong, obviously the indexes are strong, but that's not gonna do us any good.
我们需要 我们需要存货来转移基地并守住他们的站位 We need, we need stocks to move our bases and to, uh hold their stops.
因此 如果股票真的在认真地移动 情况真的在以一种有意义的方式改善 我们将不会在这些逆转中看到这些深蹲 So if stocks are really moving in earnest and things are really improving here in a meaningful way, we're not going to see these squats in these reversals.
当然 我们可能会做一些深蹲和倒立 但我们不会停止 不会在平衡上受到冲击 And certainly, um, we may get some squats and reversals, but we're not going the stops are not going to get hit on balance.
这就是我们要看的 如果你知道这是如何工作的 So that's where we've got to see, if you know how this is working.
至于在个股方面 我趁此机会买了几只个股 因为它们在开盘当天就占了空 As far as in the individual stocks, I took the opportunity to buy a few names here as they they squatted intro day.
这就是我所说的早期逆转 That's what I call the early day reversal.
你可以在我的第一本书里读到 You can read about that on my 1st book.
嗯 嗯 嗯 所以我们有了几个名字 来试试 Um and um, um. So we got a couple names, put a couple toes in the water here.
Imbt表现很好 上升了7 5% Imbt's acting really good here, up by seven and a half percent.
这是权力博弈的好结果 So that's good from that power play.
就是这样 你知道 我们要静观其变我们现在需要更多的存货 And that's it. You know, we're going to wait and see and and we need more stock set ups now.
我们仍然没有足够的库存设置和足够的东西在这里工作 甚至在这一点上有一点点的侵略性 We still don't have enough stock setups and enough things working here to even get remotely aggressive at this point.
你知道 市场可能会上涨 但我不在乎道指涨30 And again, you know, the market could go up, but I don't care if the dow goes up 30.
如果我们没有 我们没有看到股票设置 我们将保持保守 If we're not, we're not seeing stock setups, we're going to, we're going to stay conservative.
马克 你呢 你对这次集会做了什么吗 Mark, how about you? Did you, have you done anything with this rally here?
事实上 没有 我去过 不是 强调一下你刚才说的 Actually, no, I have. Not. Just to highlight what you were saying.
原因其实在你的评论中很好地强调了 你说你可能厌倦了人们听到你说 不要对你咄咄逼人 要获得关注 The reason is actually perfectly highlighted in the comment you made, in terms of, you said you might get tired of people hearing you say, don't get aggressive to you, gain traction.
但我敢保证你对赔钱会更厌倦 But I can guarantee you get more tired of losing money.
嗯 你知道 我今年被砍的原因之一就是像今天这样的日子 即使是少量的钱 Um. And one of the, you know, ways I've got chopped around this year is is chasing days like today, even even on a small amount.
就你的观点而言 我还没有看到托马斯的配置 我仍然有XL E和N-B-I-X-I有一些头寸 没有 但你看看像亚马逊这样的名字 亚马逊今天上涨了12% 就是这样 So I'm, and to your point, I'm just not seeing Thomas setups yet that are really I still have XL, E and N-B-I-X-I have a few positions, no, but you look at a name like Amazon Amazons up 12% today, that's that.
这大概能告诉你当今市场的主导因素是什么 That kind of tells you what's leading this market today.
不是 不是我们宇宙中的名字 It is not, it's not the names in our universe.
顺便说一句 这引发了一场灾难 This starts a disaster, by the way, uh, you know.
所以你可以看到 这只是在一个非常强劲的下跌趋势中的反弹 So you can see, this is just a snap back rally within a very strong down tread.
这是一个小波动 只有12% And it's a blip and 12 %.
这是图表上的一个小点 And it's a little blip on the chart.
我今天在推特上指出 这个弧线今天上升了1011% I pointed that out today on Twitter, that arc is up 1011 percent today.
看看10%或11%的下跌是什么样子当你持有亏损时 或者你有这样的下跌 Look what a ten or 11% decline looks like when you hold a loss, or you have a decline like this.
看这个 甚至在图表上都没有 See this even it doesn't even register almost on the chart.
你几乎看不到它 You can barely even see it.
所以你需要 我的意思是 这可以有一个巨大的移动到200日 你仍然会在一个非常强烈的下跌步伐 So you need, I mean, this can have a huge move up to the 200 day, and you would still be in a very strong down tread.
再一次 关于海底捕鱼 你知道 你可以事后看看 也许 你知道 你可以海底捕鱼 So again, this bottom fishing, you know, you can go in hindsight and see, maybe, you know, you can bottom fish.
但有很多时候你在这里抄底 然后让自己输得很惨 But there's all kinds of times you were to bottom fish here and and got yourself at a big loss.
所以 再说一遍 你知道 还有别的选择吗 So, so, again, um, you know, what's the alternative?
你知道 你累了 你知道 就像我说的 你可能厌倦了听到 不 等待牵引 等待牵引 You know, you get tired, you know, like I said, you get tired of maybe hearing say, no, wait for traction, wait for traction.
但我明白了 这是很久以前的事了 大概30多年前 我明白了 赔钱比守规矩 等待 还有 But I have learned, and I learned it a long time ago, about 30 some odd years ago, that it was a lot more painful to lose money than it was to be disciplined and to wait and to, uh, and to Ms.
在一些指数的反弹中 out on some of these rallies that, uh, are happening in the indexes.
所以 你知道 赔钱是另一种选择 So again, you know, losing money is is the alternative.
你还有什么要说的吗 Um, did you have anything else to say?
我知道我打断你了 I know I cut you off there.
不 我真的很搞笑 我也想强调ARC 你知道 这正是你不想做的 你知道 就是碰到这些名字 No, I was actually getting funny, I was going to highlight ARC as well, to say, you know, this is exactly what you don't want to do, you know, is is running into these names.
当我听说亚马逊涨了10%的时候 我想 哦 你知道 这通常是一个巨大的涨幅 When I hear amazon's up 10 %, I think, oh, you know, that's normally a gigantic move.
然后你看一下之前的图表 这没什么 And then you look at the chart ago, this is nothing um.
这并不意味着我们不会在这里触底 And it doesn't mean the that we may not bottom here.
我希望看到市场反弹回落 I'd love to see the market rally pull back.
然后是名字 你知道 真的很好 像我们 你知道 增殖方便 名单和视频上升了10% And then the names, you know, that have really held up well, like our, you know, proliferate conveniences, lists and videos up 10 %.
你知道 这里有将近7%的人 Tesses up, you know, almost 7% here.
再强调一次 图表上的点点滴滴 Um again, all all blips on blips on the charts.
我是说 看看这个 只是图表上的一个小点 I mean, look at this. Is just a blip on the chart.
这些图表看起来都坏了 微软大约7% All these charts look broken. Microsoft about 7% here.
Netflix 这是一个很大的跑回 Netflix. And this is a big run back into the
被打压的股票 你会在这里集会的 beaten down thing stocks. You'll get a rally here.
但是这些股票 这些股票是长期的 长期的顶部 But these, these stocks are, these stocks are secular, secular tops.
我的意思是 他们超过了Facebook 这里的Meta是 你知道 在这里是一个主要的顶部 I mean, they top Facebook. Meta here is is, you know, is in a major top here.
这是200日向下的超强动力 This is a super strong momentum to the downside with the 200 day.
所以我们想投资那些突破基础的股票 So we want to be in stocks that are breaking out a basis.
现在我们回到A-B-J出来的时候 Now we go back to something like A-B-J came out.
这真是一个完美的设置 This is really a perfect setup.
我的意思是 这真的是一个完美的数字 I mean, this is really a perfect number.
我把它卖了 我说 我可能会在这里做一个把手 然后我就买了 And I sold it, and I said, I'll probably going to build A-A handle here, and then I'll buy it.
回来了 这正是目前所发生的 Coming back out. That's exactly what happens so far.
它表现得很完美 所以我们必须看看完美的设置是否开始起作用 It's acting perfect. So we have to see if perfect setups start to work.
如果完美的设置不起作用 那么你就没有一个好的市场 If perfect setups don't work well, then you do not have a good market.
我不管索引上发生了什么 完美的设置必须起作用 I don't care what happens in the indexes, the perfect setups have to work.
一旦市场开始真正运转完美的设置开始起作用 你就会开始甚至是草率的设置开始起作用 你就会被救出来 即使你犯了错误 And then once the market starts moving in earnest and and the perfect setups work, then you start getting or even sloppy setups start working, and you get bailed out, even when you're making mistakes.
所以我们我们还差得远呢 So we we are nowhere near that yet.
所以让我们继续关注 看看我们是如何结束的 看看这周剩下的时间会发生什么 So let's keep an eye and see how we close and see transpires rest of the week here.
现在开始提问吧 And let me get to questions.
让我们来看看 所以问m-m-我正在训练我的眼睛如何成功的设置 Let's see. So questioned to M-M-I am training my eye on successful set up.
所以2022年 你能再告诉我到底是什么让你注意到C-P-R-X成为了11月7日的候选人吗 C-P-R-X So the 2022, could you please tell once again what exactly has caught your attention to C-P-R-X as a candidate for by on Eleven seven, C-P-R-X.
如果可能的话 你能谈谈你是怎么玩的吗 And if possible, could you please discuss how did you play it?
所以在11月7日那天 我嗯 我没有播放 所以我把它放在了我们的关注列表中 Um, so on Eleven seven, which I well, I didn't play it, so I put it on by alert, you know, on our focus list.
我确实说过这是我正在考虑的一场比赛 And I did say that it was one that I was considering playing.
我确实想让它安静地打开 它打开了一个小缺口 I did want it to open up quietly, and it opened up on a little bit of a gap.
我希望它在这里打开 然后我可能会买出来 但我没有玩它 I was hoping it opened up inside here, and then I might buy it coming out, but I did not play it.
所以我不参与 我没有买 我甚至没有推荐买 所以我不知道为什么你会问 我是怎么玩的 So I'm not in this. I didn't buy it, and I didn't even recommend to buy it, so I'm not sure why you're asking, how did I play it?
但无论如何 这是为了澄清 你知道 这是一个 这是一个很好的向下漂移 这里有一个支点 很小的面积 But anyway, that's to clarify, you know, this is a, this is a nice little drifting down, little pivot here, little cheap area.
我是说 看起来不错 I mean, you know, looks pretty good.
挺不错的 让我们看看 埃里克问 我问了关于移动止损上周四 你提醒我你写了什么 说你不会允许适当的尺寸增加成为损失 It's holding up pretty good. Let's see, eric asking, I asked about moving the stop lost last Thursday, and you reminded me what you wrote and said you would not allow decent size gain to become a loss.
当然 你是对的 我肯定是看错了 我以为是两位数 And of course, your correct. I must have mixed up with other things I read, um, I thought it was double digit.
接下来的问题是 你能否因为不同的标记条件 或者你自己的策略 或者你自己的交易结果而获得不同的规模收益 So the follow up question is, can you can decent size gain be different because of different marking conditions, or your own tactics, or your own trading results?
好吧 你做了什么 请在下面回答你的问题 Okay, what you did? Answer your question there at the bottom there.
你的收益是基于你自己的交易结果 So you decent size gain is is based on your own trading results.
这取决于你自己的风格或策略 It's based on your own style or strategy.
举个例子来说 如果你是一名短线交易员 一款规模不错的游戏显然要比长线投资者小得多 So for instance, if you were a day trader, I mean, a decent sized game is obviously going to be way smaller than someone is a long term investor.
体面这个词 这就是为什么我说体面的大小游戏 So that word decent, that's why I say decent size game.
因为我们不能只说百分比 因为那意味着 你知道 当日交易者几乎永远不会有10%的收益 Because we can't just say a percentage, because that would mean that, you know, again, a day trader's not gonna have a 10% gain virtually ever.
但对于长线投资者来说 10%的收益是一个很小的游戏 But a 10% gain for a longer term investor is a is a tiny game.
所以你要考虑到你的风险和你的策略 So you've got to take in relation to how much you risk and what's your what your strategy is.
你知道 如果你是一个波动交易者 一个可观的收益通常是 你知道 15%或20%是一个相当可观的游戏 You know, if you're a swing trader, a decent sized gain is usually, you know, 15, 20% is a pretty decent game.
你开始达到2530或更多 这是一个很好的增益 You start getting to the 2530 or more, that's a really good gain.
我是说 我绝不会让30%的收益变成亏损 I mean, I would never let a 30% gain turn into a loss.
我 我几乎从来不会让 a 15或20 I'm A-I almost never, ever let A-A 15 or 20, um.
有时是a-a 8%或10% so again, sometimes A-A, eight or a 10 %.
你知道 我可能会让它回落 特别是如果我的资金停止 You know, I might let that come back down, particularly if I finance to stop.
所以如果我在第二部分融资停止 或者我保留的任何比例 那可能会进入损失一栏 但通常我会融资 So if I finance to stop on that 2nd half, or whatever percentage, um I keep, that might go into the lost column, but very often I'll finance that.
所以虽然我让它扭转了一个相当大的尺寸 但它被弥补了因为我 我拿了一些钱 So although I let it reverse a decent size gain, it's been covered because I-I took some off and I finance it.
我仍然在收支平衡或降低风险 I'm still breaking even or or mitigating that that risk.
让我们看看这里有两个问题是给UNH的 差距是11-8 Um, let's see here two questions for the UNH pull back by an eleven eight.
这不是一个右侧的浅发展吗 Isn't it a shallow right side development?
由于1013年到1031年的价格迅速上涨 让我们来看一下 Since price from 1013 to 1031 shot up quickly, let's take a look at that.
你1118岁吗 呃 有点浅 You an age on 1118? Um, it's, it's slightly shallow.
是的 是的 所以当你向后拉的时候 很多时候 你知道 当然 他们是从杆的底部向后拉的 不管是在弯处 还是在手柄的底部 Yeah, it is. So what happens is that when you get the pull back bys, a lot of times, you know, of course, they are coming off the lows of the pole back, whether it's in the cheat, it's in the low cheek the handle.
根据定义 你会有点亏空因为你还没有建立 很明显 如果你建立了支点 你就不会在回调时买进 And by definition, you will be a little short because you haven't built, obviously, if you built the pivot out, you wouldn't be buying from a pullback by.
你会从一个进化者那里买东西 You'd be buying from a breakout.
我们把它画出来 So let's let's draw that
在 假设这一项比下一项 in. So let us say this sets up over the next
几天 这里有点紧 对吧 few days, tightens up a bit here, right?
结果是这样的 And comes out of something like this.
这样看起来好多了 对吧 So that looks, that looks better, right?
看起来好多了 你可以看到 That looks a lot better. You can see that.
你可以看到一切都在这里形成 You can see everything's forming right around here.
你会清空你的供应 你会在那里收紧 You would clear out your supply, you would tighten up right there.
但是当你得到回拉的时候 你是这是整个这是回拉的全部好处 But when you get the pull back by, you're that's the whole that's the whole benefit of the pullback by.
或者我们的目标是早点进入 以防万一 Or the goal is to get in a little bit early in case
它不会在右侧形成 然后就这样 it doesn't build out that right side and just goes.
因此 在购买压缩版和尽可能早一点购买之间需要权衡 So there's a balancing act between buying it too compressed and and and buying it a little bit early where they can.
实际上我做这件事的方式是我试着去看 然后说 这怎么可能看起来很好呢 And in the real the way I do it is I try to look and say, well, how could this be, you know, looking good?
几天到一两个星期 And say, a number of days to maybe a week or two.
如果是这样的话 我可能会考虑撤回但如果它需要 你知道 很多工作 比如 在这里 那就完全是另一回事了 If that is the case, then I might entertain the pull back by but if it would need, you know, a lot of work, like, for instance, over here, that's a whole different story.
我的意思是 这就像 它刚刚从低谷中走出来 没有任何右侧的发展 I mean, that's like, that's just coming off the lows and has no right side development whatsoever.
在这里 我的右侧确实有一些发育 So over here, I do have some right side development.
你是对的 它确实跑到了右边这里 但你在这里有一个很好的漂移抖动 它回来了相当多 And you're right, it did run right up this right side here, but you had a pretty good drift shake out here, and it came back quite a bit.
所以我觉得这真的 把它设置得很好 So I now that that really, uh, set it up quite quite nicely.
你要在50天内出现 You got the 50 day turning up.
是的 你是对的 我喜欢你 你非常敏锐地看到了右边有点被压缩了 So yeah, you're right. I like you're, you're, uh, very astute in seeing how that is a little bit compressed in the right side.
好眼力 嗯 让我们看看 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 对 还有马克 我也要问你同样的问题 因为你玩了很多这样的把戏 通过欺骗和低级的处理 So good eye. Um, let's see for B-B-B-B-I-I-B And Mark, I'll ask you the same thing, because you play a lot of these pull back bys off the cheats and low treatment.
等我做完这个 如果你愿意 你可以来插话 Well, once I'm done with this one, you can chime in if you'd like.
11点8分触发了越狱警报 Um, so break out alert triggered on eleven eight.
越狱不是在117楼吗 Wouldn't the breakout actually be on eleven seven?
11/8在这里 117不是越狱吗 So eleven eighths right here. Eleven seven is not a breakout?
不 我不明白你怎么能称之为分手 No, I don't see how you can call it a breakup.
嗯 我不知道 也许 让我们看看 也许它确实比它略小一点 Well, I don't know. Maybe, let's see, maybe it did eclipse it by a hair.
我看看 28796287 Let's see, two, 8796, two, 87.
是啊 真的 就差一根头发吗 Yeah, so it did, it clips up by a hair?
是的 只是可能没有成功 你知道吗 Yes, it just maybe didn't do it, you know?
呃 呃 呃 你知道 这已经足够我决定了 你知道 这是有意义的 真的通过了那里 我可能有办法给它更多一点 Uh, um, uh, you know, enough for where I decided that, you know, it was uh, meaningful, and really getting through there, I might have way to give it a little bit more.
有时它们会很快探出头来 然后转回来 Uh, sometimes they poked their head out very quickly, turned back.
另一件事是 你知道 这是一个文件 我们从那开始跟踪 所以给了更多的保证 它正在进行 Another thing too, is that, you know, this was a file through, we were followed through from that, so that was given a little bit more assurance that it was getting going.
再次强调 你是非常非常注重细节的人 So again, you're, you're being very being a stickler on looking at things in detail.
我喜欢这样 这是优秀的 And I love that. That's excellent.
我们看这里 你说好的交易应该是无聊的 Let's see here. You said good trading should be boring.
在你对玛格丽蒂关于真实愿景的采访中 你提到你交易时没有情绪 或者至少这是你的意图 In your interview with Margarety on real visions, you mentioned you traded without emotions, or at least that is your intention.
你如何在早上起床 跳踢踏舞去上班时保持激情和兴奋 同时又能控制自己的情绪 做出好的 好的但无聊的交易决定 How do you balance being passionate and excited to trade when you get up in the morning, tap dancing to work, while at the same time and keeping your emotions in check and making good, good but boring, trading decisions.
我的意思是 过度情绪化 而且 你知道的 这和 呃 对你的工作感到鼓舞和快乐没有关系 你知道的 Well, I mean, being getting overly emotional and and, you know, and has nothing to do with being, um, inspired and being happy about your work, you know.
所以 我喜欢 我接受其中无聊的部分 So, I mean, I-I love, I embrace the boring parts of it.
我接受纪律 我接受这一切 I embrace the discipline. I embrace all of that.
所以 你知道 这种情绪是当你 呃 你有东西 呃 控制你 你做的决定不是基于规则 不是基于你的纪律 不是基于策略 So it's, you know, the emotion is when you're, uh, you're having things, uh, control you, that you're making decisions not based on rules and not based on your discipline, not based on a strategy.
所以我看不出这两者之间有什么联系 So I don't really see the connection between the two.
但我想要回个圈 But I do want a circle back.
对不起 马克 我确实说过 我给了你一个机会来评论撤退 我不知道 I'm sorry, mark, I did say, I give you a chance to comment on the pull back by, I don't know.
你还有什么要补充的吗 do you have anything to add to that?
不 我只是 我实际上也会说 我认为拉维的观察很好 但那被拉回来了 你知道 我想我要强调的一点是 当你把它画进去的时候 这是真正有帮助的 我认为 对一些人来说 是 你知道 标记 他有点看到了 他有点看到了前面的一步或两步说 如果它真的是建设性的 它可能会建立在这个 No, I was just, I would actually, was said too, I thought the observations by uh Ravi were good, but that pulled back by, you know, I think the one point I would highlight that you when you draw that in, this is what's really helpful, I think, for some folks, is, you know, marks he's sort of seeing, he's sort of seeing a step or two ahead to say, it may build into this if it's really constructive.
这就是我想问的问题 你知道 理想的情况是什么样的是很有帮助的 Um And and this is where I think it's, it's helpful to ask, you know, what would an ideal situation look like?
还有一件事我要指出 你那天的衣服很漂亮 And the other thing I would have pointed out, you had a pretty good clothes on that day.
嗯 然后它在里面呆了一天 UM And then it went inside for a day.
这就是我坐的地方 So that's where I sit there.
我看着它说 这个冷的 最好的东西 对吧 And I look at it and go, this cold, best thing right there, right?
完全正确 我是说 我们会把它留在里面的 对吧 Exactly. And I-I mean, we'll leave that in, right?
我们见过多少次了 And how many times do we see these?
你知道 它们并不总是相同的 但通常它们 它们是押韵的 因为如果股票真的在积累 这就是应该形成的形式 You know, they don't, they don't always go in identically, but often they, they rhyme, because if the stock is really under accumulation, that's what should sort of form.
但就像你说的 我们之所以有这些不同的技术 就把它当做一种工具 But like you said, the reason we have these different techniques, think of it like a tool.
这不是一个完美的设置 但它是可以接受的 风险是可以接受的低到你知道的范围 That's not a perfect setup, but it's acceptable, and the risk is acceptable to that low where you know what's the range there about.
你会得到大约百分之四点五的止损 You get about a four, four and a half percent stop.
如果你利用回拉的宽度 这是一个很好的开始持仓的地方 If you sort of use the width of that pullback by that's a decent place to start a position.
这是我强调的另一个原因因为它非常紧 Well, that was another reason why I've highlighted is because it's, it's quite tight.
它不太容易挥发 我也告诉你 It's not very volatile. I tell you this too.
嗯 这就是为什么 你知道 现实生活并不总是像你想的那样 这就是为什么你必须学会屈从于市场 Um. This is where, you know, the real life doesn't always work out the way you think, and that's why you really have to learn to to bend with the market.
因为我觉得这个市场可以道琼斯指数上升到这里表现强劲 嗯 Because I felt like this market could the way the Dow was moving up here and acting strong, um.
我觉得也许本质上的追赶 玩 追赶 到200天 也许 你知道 如果有一点 你知道 比如通货膨胀 一点新闻 我们可以反弹 And I felt like maybe the essence peeking catch up, play, catch up, go to the 200 day, and maybe, you know, if there's a little bit of, you know, like on inflation, a little bit of news, we could rally.
事实就是这样 那是我的后脑 我说 好吧 这是一个真正的道指股票 所以这应该是 你知道 但是它没有 你可以看到 That's exactly what happened. That was sort of in the back of my head, and I said, okay, well this is a real market Dow stock, so this should go, you know, and and, but it didn't, you can see.
即使是今天 当市场起飞的时候 股票还是下跌了 And even today, as the market taken off, the stock was down and, um,
所以 股票 即使是像UNH这样的股票 你知道 它是道琼斯指数的股票 这是 这是你能得到的最好的股票市场 so again, the stocks, even a stock like UNH, which is a total, you know, dow stock, this is, this is a mar as market of a stock as you can get.
不符合今天的市场行情 Isn't going with the market today.
他们正在磨合 正如Mark指出的 在这一点上磨合了老的 破碎的领导 尽管DGIII被取消了 They're running in as as um Mark point out, the running into the old, broken leaders at this point, although DGI II is taken off.
这真的很好 这是一个 有点草率 That's really nice here again, this is one, a little sloppy here.
你在11号8号的时候把它拉了回来 然后它就在这里掉了一点 现在 砰的一声 把它拉了回来 This pull back by, and you had that pull back by right here on Eleven eight, and then it just came off a bit here, and now, bang, come and rip him back.
这是一个艰难的抉择 This has been a tough one.
这是一匹野马 这是我非常喜欢股票的情况之一 This is a bucking Bronco. This is one of those situations where I really like the the the stock, the situation.
我只是想从一个更低 更粗略的角度入手 I'm just trying to get on board on a lower, sketchy point.
到处都是 有时候会发生这样的事 And it's been all over the place, and sometimes this what happens.
你知道 你只是被留在发射台上 看着火箭起飞 You know, you just get left on the launching pad, watching the rocket take off.
让我们回到枯燥的交易纪律 情绪 Let's go back to trading boring discipline, emotions.
马克 任何 任何感觉 Mark any, any um, any feelings.
这是一个非常有趣的问题 And it's a really interesting question.
我想这和你说的差不多 但你要消除情绪的最大地方是 在交易本身 与你对生意的态度 是不同的 I-I guess I would think of it similar to how you said, but the the biggest place you want to remove the emotions is yet, within the trade itself, versus your attitude toward the business, it's different.
你知道吗 是的 听着 如果我每天都对交易充满热情 那我就是在撒谎 You know that? Yeah, look, I'm, I'm not, I'll be lying if I set of enthusiastic about trading every single day.
嗯 因为这是工作 但是 呃 这真的很重要 你在任何一笔交易中都不能情绪化 这意味着你喜欢一套交易 所以这驱动了你的决策 Um, because it is, it is work, but, uh, it's, it's really crucial, though, that you're not emotional on any one trade, meaning you love a set up, so that drives your decision making.
或者你 你知道 我的父亲 在我职业生涯早期 你说 儿子 任何时候你从你的头寸中得到的消息 你的交易都太大了 Or you get, you know, my dad, early on of my career, you said, son, any time you're getting a buzz from your position, you're trading way too big.
意思是 如果你是在交易行动 或者 或者 我猜 像赌场里的赌徒之类的 那是你要避免的 Meaning, if you're trading for action, or, or, I guess, like a gambler at a casino or something like that, that's what you want to avoid.
嗯 就这样 有好日子 也有坏日子 Um. And, you know, that way, good day, bad day.
你知道 我的大多数孩子和妻子会说他们不知道我是一天赚了一大笔钱还是一败涂地 You know, most of my kids and my wife would say they have no idea if I if I made a fortune in one day or got clopped.
这和他妻子的情况差不多 That's the wife's sort the exact same thing.
这就是我想要的 That's kind of what I'm going for.
是的 我妻子说 她有时会和别人说话 她会说 天哪 你知道 马克真的很好 Yeah, my wife says, man, it is she like, sometimes she'll be talking to people, and she'll say, oh my, you know, mark's really good.
他可以进去 然后 你知道 然后然后输掉10万美元 然后出来 然后微笑着好像什么都没发生过 我永远不会知道 He can go in there and, you know, and and and lose a hundred thousand dollars and come out and then smile like nothing went wrong and I'll never know.
所以 是的 同样的事情 很快 So, yeah, same thing, real quick.
那么 呃 呃 我在试着念你的名字 你的名字d-或者degro嗯 So, uh, uh, I'm trying to pronounce your lot, your name or d- or degro um.
我在1031号买了A-A-E-R-I-R-I 没有关于米洛斯的违规或确认 I bought A-A-E-R-I-R-I on 1031. There are no violations or confirmations on Milos.
我唯一不喜欢的事就是和横着走了六周 Only thing I don't like has been with sideways for six weeks.
是啊 因为这是拟议中的合并 Yeah, that's because it's a proposed merger.
所以这是一个你不会想要的 So this is one you would not want to be in.
这是拟议中的合并 这就是为什么在Flatland 每当你看到这种价格变化 这就告诉你有现金出价 有合并提议 有合并活动 This is under proposed merger. And now that's why Flatland, whenever you see that kind of price action, that tells you there's been a cash offer, some proposed merger, you know, there's there's merger activity.
这是你不想买的东西而且价格上已经打折了 So you that's something you wouldn't want to B-B and it's already basically all discounted in the price.
马克·里奇·迈克尔斯问你2020年8月开始的累计 Um Mark Ritchie Michaels asking you an accumulate from august 2020.
看到了吧 你说的话都得小心翼翼 See how you got to be careful what you're saying comes back.
你提到 如果某只股票当天上涨很多 但我有兴趣买入 如果它下跌 我可以等到第二天再买入 You mention that if a stock is up a lot on the day, but I'm interested in buying it, I can wait until the next day to buy if it falls through.
你要怎么阻止这件事 How are you setting your stop on this?
我猜你只会在计算还算得通的情况下才会这么做 而且它而且它没有扩展 是的 孩子 我得听你的 I am assuming you're only doing this if the math still makes sense, and it's and it isn't extended, yeah, boy, I have to listen.
我可以回去听一下那个真正的Q-N-A吗 因为我不记得某天某只股票是不是涨了很多 你知道 在我的脑海里 我认为涨的应该是接近两位数或者类似的 May I have to go back and listen to that actual Q-N-A, because I don't remember if a stock is big up on a day, and, you know, in my mind, I'm thinking big would be close to double digits or something like that.
我第二天买它的几率几乎为零 因为这只股票可能已经延期了 The odds of me buying it the next day are almost, you know, zero, because the stock is probably already extended.
所以我得 我得把这个问题放在背景中考虑 So I'd have to, I have to see that question maybe in context.
总的来说 伙计们 我不喜欢买有裂口的东西 甚至不喜欢动的 Uh, you know, generally speaking, guys, I don't like to buy anything gaping or even moving.
我的意思是 会有时代标记 我将会对话 然后说 好吧 我们把这个放上去好吗 I mean, there'll be Times Mark, and I will be dialogue and going, well, shall we put this on?
我们关注的最重要的事情之一是 当天上涨了多少 And one of the number one things we look at is, how much is it up on the day?
因为我们不想追逐任何东西 Because we don't want to chase anything.
你知道 这是纪律的一部分 You know, that's part of being disciplined.
不是只有你你不能在追逐的同时被纪律约束 Is not just you you can't chase and be disciplined at the same time.
事情不是这样的 对吧 It doesn't work that way, right?
但在这样的情况下 我们就说这个B-I 这是一个很好的例子 But in a situation like this, let's just say this B-I, this is a perfect example where there you go.
这么说吧 你知道 它今天就在这里 非常高 对吧 Let's just say this. You know, was up this day, right here, was up really big, right?
然后它就把头伸出来了 And it just sort of poked its head out.
也许有一件不太好的衣服 我们第二天就没有买 因为它从这个空间出来了 是的 你知道 我可能买它是因为它有一个不错的一天 现在它可以掉下去了 我可能会这么做 Maybe had a clothes that wasn't too good, and we didn't buy it the next day, as it follows through coming out of this space, yeah, you know, I might buy it because it had a good day, and now it's able to fall through, and I might do that.
这可能是一种情况 So that would be maybe a case.
但是看 它还是从碱中出来的 But see, it's still coming out of the base.
它仍然不是一个扩展 它仍然符合标准 It's still not a extended it's still meeting the criteria.
嗯 另一件事是 如果股票强势收盘 有时股票会上涨 我就等着看一天结束时的情况 Um. So another thing too, is, you know, if the stock closes strong, sometimes the stock is up, and I wait to see at the end of the day.
如果收盘强劲 我可能会买 If it closes real strong, I might, I might buy it then.
让我继续往下说 Um, but let me just move on here.
嗯 让我们看看 有没有可能找出用来开仓的进场技术会有帮助 因为信息是可用的 而且是开仓的 Um, let's see, is it possible to find out which entry technique was used to open a position would be helpful in this information was available and the open positions?
卡塔 啊 我不确定我们能做到 TAB Ah, I I'm not sure we can do that.
我是说 我肯定会考虑的 但是 我不确定我们能不能 你知道 你知道 问题是 当我们花了这么多时间 你 I mean, I'll, I'll definitely take that in consideration, but, um, I'm not sure we can, you know, you know, the problem is, when we spend all this time sort of, you
要知道 做所有这些后台工作 会让我们远离寻找股票和做真正能带来好的研究的工作 know, doing all this back office work, it takes us away from finding stocks and and doing the work that really leads to good, good research.
但是 我们会 我们会 我们会调查的 But up, but we'll, we'll, uh, we'll look into that.
是的 嗯 让我们看看 让我们看看 弗雷德问 马克 今年到目前为止下降了5% Yes, um, let's see, let's see, fred ask, mark, come down 5% year to date?
好吧 你去演马克了 里奇 这很好 Okay, so you're out performing Mark, richie, so that's pretty good.
不仅损失更多 还会陷入这种情况 因为每当我增加爆炸值 市场就会再次崩溃 Not only to lose much more than that, got into that situation, because whenever I increased explosion, the market started breaking down again.
我想把总风险从0 2%降到0 2% 直到我恢复到收支平衡 直到我们回到一个轻松的 消失的环境 I was thinking of moving from 0.2% is 0.2% of total risk, until I get back to break even, until we get back to an easy, gone environment.
所以 为了减少损失 你认为这是一个好的策略吗 So to minimize for the drawdowns, would you say that is a good strategy?
你觉得还有更好的策略吗 Would you say there is a better strategy?
这是你真正想要的 你知道 It's really how you want to approach it, you know.
当你的手腕忍耐力达到某种程度 你知道 你开始达到叔叔点 我称之为 他们扭曲你的手臂 他们你不能再忍受了 嗯 你知道 在那个时候你真的必须从一个非常低的风险的角度来处理它 试着慢慢地回来 And when your wrist tolerance gets to a point where you're at um, you know, you're starting to hit that uncle point, which I call it, where they twist your arm and they you can't take any more, um, you know, at that point you really have to just approach it from a really low risk standpoint and try to come back slowly.
所以我认为 你看待你的方法的方式是绝对有道理的 And And so I think you're, you know, the way you're looking at at your approach makes absolute sense.
只是 只是一个决定的问题 你知道 你的忍耐力是多少 然后 嗯 再回来 It's just, it's just a matter of deciding, you know, what your tolerance is, and and, um, and coming back.
你知道 还有一件事 你知道 即使我落后了 你知道 5% 7% 8% 如果突然间我看到一些非常好的安排 你知道 我可能 我可能真的会去承担更多的风险 你知道 只是因为我看到这些安排真的很有效 You know, the one thing too, is, you know, even if I was down, you know, five, seven, 8 %, if all of a sudden I see some really great setups, you know, I may, I may actually go in and take a bit more risk, you know, just because I-I see the setups are really working.
基地里有很多很多的存货 There's a lot of lot of stocks coming out of bases.
所以我要评估 商品的质量 以及情况 即使是我没有买的股票 So I gotta assess, also the quality of the merchandise on the table, and what's what's going on, even in the stocks that I'm not buying.
所以 嗯 你知道 这不仅仅是你自己的股票 因为你可能 你知道 你知道 对市场感到紧张 你没有买很多股票 So, um, you know, there there's, it's not just on traction of your own stocks, because you might have been, you know, you know, nervous about the market, you didn't buy many stocks.
你并没有从自己的投资组合中得到太多的反馈 You don't really have much feedback from the positions in your own portfolio.
但是你可以 你可以看到股票 But you can, you can see the stocks are.
你有我的重点清单 So you have my focus list.
这是一个很好的 你知道 这是一个很好的 嗯 一个测量器 And that is a great, you know, that's a great, uh um, a gauge.
当你看焦点列表 你会看到正在发生的事情 有很多股票在一个基础上崩溃 When you look at the focus list and you see what's going on, there are a lot of stocks breaking on a bases.
他们坚持住了吗 这是你的第一种 你知道的 反馈级别 Are they holding? That is your 1st sort of, um, you know, feedback level.
然后你也会看 你知道 空缺的职位 以及你自己的职位 And then you also would look at, you know, open positions and and, what your own positions.
但是 是的 我认为这是肯定的 But, yeah, I would say definitely.
我是说 马克 你是问这个问题的最佳人选 I mean, mark, so you're a perfect person to ask this.
你知道 你现在手头有点紧 你知道 个位数 你知道 你的方法是什么 You know, you are a little underwater right now, um, you know, in single digits, what, you know, what's your approach?
你要怎么你要怎么回到 呃 你知道的 你知道的 如果 如果一切都开始准备起飞了呢 How are you gonna how are you gonna get back to, uh, you know, are, you know, what if, what if everything just starts setting up and taking off?
你是要继续超慢超慢 还是要加快速度 比如 你要怎么处理稍微往下一点又不会从这里往洞里挖得太深的情况 Are you gonna still take it super, super slow, or are you gonna increase, like, how are you gonna handle being down a bit and not digging too deep into a hole from here?
对吧 很显然 这是一个很好的问题 Right? This is a really good question, obviously.
这就是你想说的 马克 And here's where, I think to your point, mark.
我觉得我做的时间越长 你能做的越多 感觉就越好 I think the longer I've been doing this, the more you can there's, the better feel you get.
今天就是一个很好的例子 我什么都不买 伙计们 因为追不值得 So today's a good example. I'm not buying anything, guys, cause it hasn't been paying to chase.
你知道 这些 这些指数驱动的反弹 是最受打击的东西现在领先 You know, these, these index driven rallies, were the most beaten up stuff is leading now.
如果只有一个警告 如果有一大堆的名字在焦点列表中有很好的支点 或者别的什么 我不会 甚至 你知道 我会买 嗯 在我看来 我们还没有真正看到 If there was but caveat, if there was a whole bunch of names that really had great pivots on focus list, or whatever, I wouldn't, even, you know, I would be buying, um, we just haven't really seen that yet, in my opinion.
所以 对我来说 今年真的是被千刀万剐 你知道 我赚了一点 失去了一点 赚了一点 所以我一直在慢慢地往下走 So, and for me, it's sort of been, it really has been death by a thousand cuts this year, you know, I make a little bit, lose a little bit more, make a little bit So I've been inching my way down.
我知道 在一个好的时期 我仍然非常接近股票的新高 I know, in one good period, though, I'm really close to those new equity highs still.
所以我可以看到我自己 仍然看到我想看到的 在短时间内变得非常有攻击性 So I could see myself, still seeing what I want to see, getting really aggressive in short order.
我们只是没有 你知道 你知道 今天早上的第一件事 马克今天展示了两到三个不错的设置 他们都是在市场上涨巨大的时候蹲着 We just kind of haven't had, you know, we talked about, you know, 1st thing this morning, mark showing two or three decent setups today, all of them are squatting on a day when the market's up enormous.
这不是行动 千千万万个点 千千万万个点 我们找不到几个名字即使在这里有很好的突破 这只是告诉我 市场还没有它还没有准备好 That's not the action. Thousand of a thousand point, a thousand point, we we can't get a few names that even even have a good break out here, and that just tells me the market's not it's just not ready yet.
这并不意味着我们的行为没有触底 这是不对的 对吧 It doesn't mean we're not bottoming still what we do, it's not right, right?
我们只是还没准备好 这没关系 We're just not ready yet. And that's okay.
你要做的就是你要有耐心 You've just got to be you've got to be patient.
听着 我不太喜欢被逼退 但我知道 有了足够的经验 你会 你会有信心说 你知道 这有点像你的教练告诉你 你只需要在一个好球中轻松挥出一个漂亮的挥杆 但投手把球挂在了球盘的正中央 Look, I-I don't particularly like being in a drawdown, ever, but I just know, you know, with enough experience, you get, you get the confidence to say, you know, it's sort of like if your coach tells you you only, you know, just take a nice and easy swing in a good pitch, but the pitcher hangs one right over the middle of the plate.
你不打算再来点更猛的吗 You're not gonna take a little bit bigger of a hack at it?
不 我会的 好吧 我是说 我还没看过那个广告 所以我会 你知道 我会让你知道我做了什么 No, I I'm going to, all right, and I'm saying, I haven't seen that pitch yet, so I I'm, you know, I'll let you know what I do.
这是第一个知道的人 It'll be the 1st to hear about it.
你知道吗 郑重声明 我不喜欢扣钱 You know, for the record, I despise draw downs.
嗯 我们看这里 这里有一些东西 Um. So let's see here. So a few things here.
在头寸交易中 你提到了风险范围在1 25%到2 5之间 例如 如果我的5-50%的资本投资于市场 则开放式风险为2 5% In trading two toils on the position, sizing a progressive exposure, you mention that risk range between 1.25% the 2.5 e.g., if my fif- 50% capitals invested in the market, and open risk is 2.5 %.
我应该等一下才有空吗 我想它是在说 自由滚动 打开休息 增加更多的位置 Should I wait to free? I think it's saying Free roll to open rest To add further positions.
你明白这个记号吗 因为我不完全理解这个问题 Do you understand this mark? Because I'm not totally understand the question.
但请稍等 我只是在看书 But hold on here, just reading.
听着 你真的要看看 看看这些东西 Look, you really have to look at, look at these things.
你的你的你的职位规模 Um, where your your your position sizing.
最后一个数字 1 25到2 5是最重要的数字 Now, the the final number, that 1.25 to 2.5 is really the most important number.
但那是 那是 那是描绘出来的 But that is, that's, that's portrayed.
这是你进行交易时的情况 That's as you go into a trade.
如果你持有10%的仓位 并且你要止损10%的仓位 那就是总股本的1%的风险 对吧 If you were to take a 10% position size, and you were and you were to put a 10% stop on it, that would be 1% risk of total equity, right?
以25%的仓位规模来止损10% 这相当于总股本的2 5% Take a 25% position size to take a 10% stop, that's 2.5% of total equity.
所以现在 你的总暴露量是另一个话题了 So that's now, your total exposure is is a whole another discussion.
你知道 你的总暴露量是多少 You know, where you take your total exposure?
你知道那是 那是另一个问题 Um, you know that that is, that's a separate issue.
所以 我不确定 对不起 我不知道你的问题是什么 So, I'm not sure. I'm sorry, but I I'm not sure what your question is.
嗯 就像我之前说的 你知道 当我入市时 我会根据我的止损 我的仓位大小 在每个仓位上取1 2% UM. And like I said before, you know, I'm going to take 1.2 .5% per position when I go in based on my stop, my position size.
但我总暴露在水中的比例通常是25% But then my overall exposure is usually 25% my tow in the water.
然后我移动到50 如果事情进展顺利 我很快就会达到75或100 Then I move to 50. If things are working, I move very quickly to 75 or a hundred.
嗯 所以可以说他今天早上在03 20和05 49买了VMI Um. So can said he bought VMI this morning at 03:20, 05:49.
你觉得我付这么多钱是个聪明的买家吗 Do you think this is a smart buyer that I pay up too much?
它是 我的意思是 你知道 它肯定是你在一个差距上买的 你知道 一个相当不错的差距 It's, I mean, you know, it's certainly you bought it up on a gap, you know, a pretty decent gap.
我不会追逐这个差距 I would not chase this gap.
我知道我可以替马克说 他也不会 And I know I can speak for Mark here, he would not either.
嗯 尤其是因为它是从 嗯 从第一反应出来的 像这样的自然反应并不是从碱开口的 Um, so, especially because it's gaping out of a, um, out of your 1st, natural reaction like this isn't gapping out of the base.
像这样的股票 如果收益有差距 我可能会买 So something like this, I might buy if it gapped on earnings.
如果你有一个非常好的收益报告 你的收益会有一个差距 它来自基数 If you had a really good earnings report, you got a gap on earnings and it came out of the base.
这张表中还有一件事 假设发生在这里这对我来说可能更有意义 There's another thing in this chart, though, and let just say that happened over here right then it might make a little more sense to me.
我不认为这是个糟糕的决定 I don't think this is a horrible decision.
如果你真的喜欢这家公司 你真的想待在里面 你不想离开你 那么是的 你必须在这里买 因为它快用完了 I don't if you really love the company and you really want to be in it, and you don't want to get to get away from you, then yeah, this is you have to buy it here, cause it's, it's running out.
它不是特别的延伸 但它比前一天延伸了一点 And it's not super extended, but it is extended a little bit from the previous day.
所以 现在很多股票都是闲置的 你知道 所以你必须决定 你知道 这是闲置的还是闲置的 So, and a lot of these stocks are squatting now, you know, so you've got to decide, you know, if this squats or puts in an outside day.
你愿意接受吗 Are you willing to go through that?
我喜欢这个图表的另一个原因是它的基础很好 The other thing I like about this chart as an example is that it comes out of a pretty nice little base right here.
现在你看到它出来了 它蹲下来了 And now you see it comes out here, and it squats.
这是一个很好的例子 说明了很多交易者会在什么情况下被阻止 你必须能够如果你是一个波动交易者或有任何类型的长期期限 你需要给股票一个机会 就像你第一次出来的时候 This is a perfect example of where many traders will get stopped, um, and where you've got to be able to If you're a swing trader or having any type of longer term time horizon, you need to give the stock a chance, like when you 1st come out here.
让我看看你在这里买 Let's see you buy it here.
好的 在这个低的支点是6 5% Okay, so down to this low in the pivot is 6.5 per cent.
这很合理 好吧 这并不是很大的风险 That's pretty reasonable. All right? That's not a huge amount of risk.
这是一个很好的停站 and that's a pretty good stop.
这里有一个很好的反面 You've got this nicely versal off of there.
现在这只占了百分之几 对吧 So now this comes in just a few percent, right?
你需要允许股票有这样的波动 You need to be able to allow stocks to have that kind of fluctuation.
但你看 你会得到123个较低的低点 对吧 But look it. You get one, two, three lower lows, right?
看看第三个低点发生了什么 Look what happens on the 3rd lower low.
看 这就是你寻求支持的地方 See, that's where you look for support.
第三天 第四天 鼓风机低 你寻找支撑 你得到漂亮的支撑和网球动作 Day three, day four blower lows, you look for the support, you get beautiful support and tennis ball action.
现在 如果你往前看 9点10分的1234-5678 11天前的8 你现在回头看 它看起来很好 而你在这里 Now, if you look here forward, um 1234-5678 at 09:10, eight at eleven days up, you see in hindsight now, it it's looking pretty good in real time while you're over here.
现在 你开始对这个蹲动作感到恐慌 Now, you start panicking on this squat.
现在进来了 哦 又是一天 And now comes in, oh, another day.
我要出去了 戴 你知道的 看起来糟透了 I'm outta here outside. Day, uh, you know, it's looking horrible.
然后嘣的一声 又回来了 And then boom, comes right back.
看 这是震动 这是铃声 这是供应和最后一点供应 然后股票可以走了 See, that's that shake out, that's ringing out, ringing out that supply and that last bit of supply, and then the stock can go.
所以 这里也有一个小教训 So, a little lesson there, too.
只是想指出肿瘤 我认为 对于差距的问题 Just want to point out tumor, I think, for the gap issue.
带他去德州旅馆 因为我认为 你知道 今天购买的方式是一个很好的例子 如果你想买一些有缺口的东西 你应该这样做 Just bring him Texas Roadhouse. Because I think the way, you know, that was purchased today is a really good example how, if you're gonna try and buy something that gaps up, this is how you should do it.
好 好 好 说得好 Good, good, good. Uh, good point.
你们应该指出来 我继续 So you should point that, I'll go ahead.
只是因为股票 好吗 Well, just because the stock, okay?
股票会上涨3%左右 你知道 在100又1 你知道 平均值 The stock gaps up, you know, 3% or something like that, you know, at 100 hundred and one, and, you know, the average.
如果你很自律 你就会想 好吧 我猜 我不能买它 If you're disciplined, you just think, well, I guess it's, I can't buy it.
但如果你看向别处 你知道 马克买了这个名字 你知道 你你真的几乎要切换到进入的一天 因为我想我们买了 你知道 在我的一天 大约30分钟 But if you looked away, you know, mark bought the name as it's pulling back, you know, you you've really got to almost switch to an intry day, because I think we bought this right around, you know, 30 min in my day.
我能做到 等一下 我们把这个拉上来 I can do that. Hold on so we can pull this up.
这是 这是进入的日子 And here's the, here's the entry day.
实际上 我买了它 看这里 在开盘那天 我只是 这只是 我甚至没有看当天的行情 但我知道 戴着一块板 我知道我在看什么 它就在这里开始上升 当它拉回 I actually, I bought it, see here, on the intry day, I just, this is just, I wasn't even looking at the intraday, but I know, wear a board, and I know what I was watching it as it just started to turn up right here, as it pulled back.
甚至当我买回来一根杆子的时候 我通常会等它真的朝我的方向移动 And then even when I'm buying a pole back, I generally wait for it to actually go in my direction.
所以当它开始在这里出现时 我就是从这里进去的 So as it started turning up right here, that's where I went in, exactly.
你现在完成了 你知道 在前几天的高水平之前 你可能只比那个水平高0 5% And and you're accomplishing now, you're only, you know, prior to the previous days high, maybe you're only half a percent above that level.
嗯 这是纪律的方式 再说一遍 如果你要在那种情况下玩 那就是 那就是应该做的 Um, that's the discipline way. Again, if you're going to play a situation like that, that's how, that's how it should be done.
但这需要 你因为很多时候这些名字之间有差距 他们会说 这就是风险 你知道 如果你要被纪律约束 就需要权衡 But it requires, you know, you because a lot of times these names gap up and they go, well, that's the risk, you know, if you're gonna be disciplined, there's a trade off.
是的 Yeah,
是啊 我们其实我九点到的 yeah, we got I-I actually got in at nine.
我在9971得到了什么 What did I get at 9971?
我认为 好吧 是的 99 所以我是在9971上车的 I think. Okay, yeah. 99. So I got in at 9971?
这就是我们平台上的东西吗 Is that what we have in the platform?
我们把它调到7575 We we put it on 7575.
好吧 我们找到了 它在上面几分钱 或者我进去了 Okay, so we got it, it got a few cents above, or I-I got in there.
嗯 这就是我们在平台上的价格 Um? So that's we put the price in the platform as it goes out.
不是我一定要去的地方 Uh, not not where I necessarily get in.
有时我早到晚到 诸如此类 Sometimes I get in earlier later, whatever.
但是马上就会熄灭 Um, but it goes out immediately.
这就是下面这一周的内容 So that's all week down here.
然后是71 所以它实际上是上升的 它是 它下降了一点 所以它只下降到90 And then 71. So it actually turned up, and it was, it was down a bit more, so it came only down here to 90.
大概是90分8分34秒 但开始变大了 It was about 90, 08:34, but it started turning up.
然后我很快就上去了 And then I went up kinda quickly.
所以 嗯 是的 你本可以卖个好点的价钱 但我一直在这里等 So, um, yeah, you could have got a little bit better price, but I waited for the turn up here.
但是 现在再看一遍 现在 情况是这样的 But again, see now. Now, here's the situation too.
当你有这么大的一天和这个差距时 我在回拉时买进 因为如果从这里继续下跌 我的交易就接近危险点了 When you got this big day and this gap, I'm buying on the pull back, because if this goes down much more from here, I'm trading near the danger point.
我们看到了 我是说 这就是我们所说的扩音器效应 We see this. I mean, that that's what we call the megaphone effect, you know.
现在 波动性正在扩大 从我买的地方 嗯 9971 就在这里 你知道 我们说的是我得到的衡量费用 是的 我们说的是 你知道 6% 5%左右 Now the volatility is widening. And from where I'm buying it, uh, 9971, right about here, you know, we're talking about me get the measuring toll, yeah, we're talking about, you know, six, 6 %, 5% or so.
如果是5%的话 我肯定知道这太可怕了 你知道 就像 你知道 我甚至可能 你知道 修剪它 So for 5 %, I would absolutely know this is acting horrendous, you know, like, I might even be, you know, trimming it.
甚至在那之前 如果你只是在外面待了一天 取出前一天的低点 也许我 我修剪了足够多看看效果如何 Even before that, if you just had an outside day, took out the low of the previous day, maybe I-I trim enough to see how it's acting.
但是 你知道 这是交易的危险点 完成这一点 降低风险 But again, you know, trading there the danger point, and and accomplishing that, lower risk actually point.
然后如果它是强的 它应该关闭强 And then if it is strong, it should close strong.
但你可以回来 你可以填补这个空白 But you may come back, you may fill this gap.
我是说 你可以来住几天 I mean, you may come in for a couple of days.
就像前面的VMI示例一样 在这里 您希望坚持使用您的原始止点 原始止点 This is where, just like with the previous example to VMI, you want to stick with your original stop, your original stop.
当你完成这个止损 你就会进入这个位置 When you come up with this stop, you come into this position.
我只是假设 但你知道 如果你想出了这个止损点 你就决定了头寸规模风险 总权益的风险 I'm just using this hypothetically, but you know, if you you come up with this stop here, you've made the decision position sizing risk, uh, risk of total equity.
你已经决定了这就是你愿意冒的风险 You've already made the decision that this is what you're willing to risk.
所以要坚持这个计划 如果这个计划 如果这只股票开始对你不利 你变得很情绪化 那么你的仓位规模太大了 你的仓位太大了 你的止损点太大了 所以你必须 随着计划的进行而截断这些仓位 So stick with that plan. And if that plan, if this stock starts moving against you, and you're getting all emotional, well then your position sizing too high, you know, you you're positionizing too big, or your stop is too big, so you're going to have to, you know, truncate that with your plan going in.
但一旦你制定了这个计划 试着坚持种植那棵植物 But once you make that plan, try to stick with that plant.
然后给股票一些波动 And then give the stock some fluctuation.
股票确实会波动 这个可能会进来 这个看起来像这样 Stocks do fluctuate. This may come in, this may look like this.
它可以写成这样 This could come out like this.
再多花几天时间 你还没反应过来 股票就暴涨了 And spend a couple more days, and before you know it, you know, stocks breaking out.
它实际上有所改善 如果你从不接触股票 你就会进行反向反弹 从反向反弹的紧支点中走出来 And it actually improves. And now you'd make a reversal recovery, come out of a tight pivot in reversal recovery, all at the same time, if you never touch the stock.
然后现在你加进去了就像我在这里加一样 如果我们 如果我们像这样收紧 And then And now you've been adding to it like I would be adding to it here, if we, if we tightened up like that.
再一次 像R-T-X是一个很好的例子 我摆脱了它 So, again, like the R-T-X is a good example, which I got shaken out of.
嗯 你知道 再一次 它从这里出来 Um, you know, again, here it comes out here.
看 今天是大萧条的一天 看到了吗 这里收紧了 Look, this big down day. See now it's tightening up here.
这实际上正在改善 这种情况正在改善 This is actually improving. This is improving.
所以 你现在可能 如果这个足够大 你就会被堵住 So, uh, you may have now, again, if this was large enough, you get stopped up.
也许这个 你知道 你没有到站 And maybe this, you know, you didn't hit your stop.
看起来很糟糕 但还没到站呢 And it looks real bad, but it didn't hit your stop yet.
给它一个机会 让我们继续 Give it a chance. Let's move on.
让我们继续 我们看这里 Let's move on. Let's see here.
嗯 阿玛尔在我们周一的会议上说这是从损失中深刻的返工 Um. So Amar said in our session on Monday that was profound reworking back from losses.
他说 关键不在于我要赚回多少利润 而在于我能多快让我的账户回到高点 He said, it's not how much I have to make back in profits, it's about how close I'm getting to my account back to the heights.
我很想听到更多关于这种观点和心态的信息 I'd love to hear more about this point of view and mindset.
这对我很有帮助 因为我也从一个令人沮丧的小损失中走出来 It has been helpful for me to think about as I am also pulling out of a small loss that has been frustrating.
今年只剩下几个月了 With only a couple of months left in the year.
我知道我可能会给自己压力 让自己尽快恢复 就像你一样 不要这么做 I'm aware that I may be putting pressure on myself to recover quickly, as you are, don't do that.
一直感谢您的指导 Thank you always for your coaching.
我不知道你说了什么 马克 但它可能让你想起了什么 So I don't know the comment that you said, mark, but it may be it brings a bell with you.
我想我只是想说我的目标是让自己接近股票的新高 Well, I think I was just referring to the fact that my goal is to keep myself near that new equity highs.
所以对我来说 我知道 你知道 无论是3% 5% 甚至10% 我知道我可以相对快速地收回 So for me, I know, you know, whether it's 3 %, 5 %, even 10 %, I know I can make that back relatively quickly.
我们有时喜欢用同样的类比 当马克谈到一个好的股票如何运行时 你知道的 它上升 然后底部 它不给太多的移动回调 然后突破新的高地 然后稍微回调 And the same analogy we like to use sometimes, where Mark talks about how does a good stock act, you know it, it runs up and then it bases, and it doesn't give too much of the move back, and then it breaks in the new high ground, and then it pulls back slightly.
我想 你知道 我账户中的权益线 以同样的方式 嗯 这真的是所有的类比 你知道 考虑到过去的优先级 或者在好的时期 我能做什么 And I think of, you know, sort of the equity line in my account, the same way, um, that that was really all the analogies to say, you know, given on what pass, say, past precedence, or or in good periods, what am I capable of doing?
我不需要 我不需要 你知道 为了回到我想要的 我想要能够在短时间内成为一个新的行为在高地上 I don't need, I don't want to have to have, you know, five good periods or easy dollar environment for two years in order to get back to even I want, I want to be able to be a new act to do high ground in short order.
好吧 我可以告诉你 唱如果我们已经跌到谷底了 Well, I can tell you, sing if if we're bottoming here,
只需要一个月 也许几周 甚至几天 如果事情真的有进展的话 it's only going to take a month, uh, you know, maybe maybe weeks, could be a couple of days, even, and if things are really working.
这就是我的观点 就是不要去想 我损失了多少钱 尤其是以美元计算 So that was kind of my point, is to just to not think about it in terms of, you know, I lost X amount, especially in dollar terms.
我用百分比来考虑一切 I think about everything in percentage terms.
另一点是 The other point I would just
基于这个问题 年底和任何事情有什么关系 make, based on the question is, what does the end of the year have to do with anything?
目标 目标就是等待好的环境 The goal, the goal is to wait for the good environment.
谁在乎是几月份呢 Who cares what month it comes in?
呃 根据马克之前的观点 我们要等多久 Uh? And to mark's point from before, you know, how long do we wait?
要花多长时间 嗯 我想说的是 如果你只考虑今年年底 也许你给自己施加了一些不必要的压力 As long as it takes? Um, so I, yeah, I would say probably, if you're thinking about just the end of the year, maybe you are putting a little unnecesary pressure yourself.
是啊 你只需要 你懂的 接受它给你的 Yeah, you just gotta, you know, take what it gives you.
如果你有一个消极的耳朵 如果 你知道 那就是 那就是问题的关键所在 And if you have a negative ear, if, you know, then that's, that's where the chips fall.
弗雷德 对不起 我们不推荐任何经纪公司 但我们不会推荐任何特定的经纪公司 Um, fred I, we don't recommend any brokerage firms, I'm sorry, but we're not going to endorse any particular brokerage firm.
市面上有很多不错的 There's tons of them out there that are good.
你必须 你知道 看看平台 保险水平和那些类型的东西 如果平台是有意义的 如果你喜欢的工具等等 pcvx似乎是占便宜的 You have to, you know, look at the platform, the level of insurance and those type of things that you're comfortable with, and if the platform makes sense, if you like the tools and so forth, pcvx seems to be squatting.
克里斯问的是 如果到今天结束时情况没有改善 如果我在投资组合中还没有获得太多的吸引力 减少头寸以限制风险是否有意义 Chris is asking, if you it doesn't improve by the end of the day, would it make sense to reduce the position to limit risk if I haven't gained too much traction in the portfolio yet?
嗯 我认为这是有道理的 在这种特殊的环境和事情的方式下 这是我们所谓的短击球 这是 你知道 在这里的短击球 嗯 Well, it would make sense, I think, in this particular environment and the way things are, and with this coming out of what we would call a short stroke, this is, you know, a little short here on a power play, um.
我想说的是 把仓位设得小一点 给它一些空间 我宁愿这样做 而不是建立一个大的仓位 然后试图绕过它 And I would say that makes more sense, probably, to position size small and to give it the room, you know, I would, I would rather do that than take a big position and then try to jockey around it.
因为当没有人出价的时候 你知道 你开始达到出价 然后股票下跌 你就开始下滑 在你意识到之前 它就开始崩溃了 Because in when there's no bids, you know, you start hitting the bids, and then the stock goes down, and you get slippage, and before you know it, it's, you know, it's getting cracked.
所以在这种环境下 我想要小一点 我想要小一点 然后我可以给股票多一点空间 And so in this type of environment, I want to be small, and I want to be small, and then I can give the stock a little bit more room.
嗯 这是一种方法 所以 是的 你说的很有道理 Um, that's one way. So, but, yes, it makes absolute sense what you're saying.
我想看一个好的结尾 I would like to see a good close.
我也想看看我能不能 你知道 让它反转 为此感到抱歉 这里发生了什么 I would also want to see if I can, you know, get it to reverse, get sorry about that, and what's going on here?
好了 呃 逆转 让我回到全屏 There we go. Uh, reversal. And let me go back to the full screen.
好了 反转复苏 There we go, A reversal recovery.
我的意思是 这很可能只是在里面呆一两天 然后再出来 I mean, this may very well just go inside for a day or two and then get out here.
这是因为 你知道 当它们很短的时候 只有8到9天 有时它们需要1214到15天 它们只是需要多一点时间 然后它们就安静下来了 And that's sometimes because it it, you know, when they're short, there are only eight, 09:10 days, sometimes they need 1214, 15 days, and they just take a little more time, and they quiet down.
所以 你知道 再一次 呃 它是 它是 它是 它是你想要用什么样的方式来接近它 So, you know, again, uh, it's, it's a, it's, it's sialistic of which way you want to approach it.
让我们看看马克 在周一的QNA环节 你回答了成员们关于D-E的问题 Let's see Mark, on Monday QNA session, you answer the members question about D-E.
我们事后才知道这是第三或第四阶段 We only know in hindsight that it's a stage three or four.
我明白了 但是我对底计数有点困惑 I understand. But then I'm a little confused about base counting.
如果我说错了 请纠正我 Please correct me if I'm wrong.
呃 我不知道基于计数和知道有什么关系 Uh? I don't know how based counting has anything to do with knowing.
事后看来 你在计算基底 In hindsight, you're you're counting basis.
如果你正处于上升阶段 我说的是第二阶段上升阶段 你绝对知道你正处于上升阶段 If you're in a stage to uptread, what I said was in a stage two uptread, you absolutely know you're in a stage to uptread.
所以你是舞台破裂 你可以数垒数 So you're a stage rupture. And you can count bases.
所以如果你是晚期基础 那么晚期基础并不意味着你一定处于第三阶段 So if you're a late stage base, well that late stage base doesn't mean you're necessarily in Stage Three.
第三阶段将是非常 这是一个模糊的状态 就像第一阶段一样 因为它是来回的 Stage Three is gonna be is is very uh uh, that that's an ambiguous state, just like Stage One, because it's back and forth.
你可以过渡到上升趋势或下降趋势如果你在第三或第一阶段 你可以进入第二或第四阶段 这取决于它的断裂方向以及移动平均线的趋势方向所以 说实话 我不太理解你的意思 There's filed silly and you could transition into an uptread or a downtren So if you're in Stage three or One, you can go into two or four, depending on which way it breaks and which way the moving average is trend So, you know, I-I don't really understand your point there, to be honest with you.
嗯 让我们看看 哦 我们这里有一个例子 Um for let's see, oh, we got an example here.
好了 大基数和A-Z-P-N周线图 Okay, big base and A-Z-P-N weekly chart.
2021 让我们把它提上来 我喜欢例子 2021. Let's bring it up. I love examples.
每周一次 我觉得我们在这方面做得不够多 Spring up the weekly, um, which I think we don't get as much or something with this.
好吧 让我们看看 每周的评分 每周图表 OK let's see, uh, score the weekly said the weekly chart.
这个不能回去 所以我不知道为什么 它在这里被切断了 This doesn't go back, so I don't know why, um, it got cut off here.
所以我做不到 So I'm not able to do that.
我很抱歉 从正确的8010现在处于后期基础 I'm sorry. From correct 8010 is now on a late stage base.
四级基地 另一个例子 M-O-H 让我们看看那个 Four stage base. Another example. M-O-H, let's look at that one.
我们有更多的数据吗 Do we get more data on that one?
我是工资 好的 在第4个情形例子中 I'm a wage. Okay, uh, in 4th situation example.
好吧 好吧 如果这是第四阶段的基础 没问题 但我不知道这是第三阶段直到我们到达第四阶段 So, okay, so, um, okay. So if this is a 4th stage base, that's fine, but I don't know this is the stage three until it we top and going at the Stage four.
再一次 它看起来比较晚 它开始变得更不稳定 So once again, it looks later, and it's starting to get more volatile.
你知道吗 我可以在这里衡量这个下降 You know? I would measure this decline here.
你看 只下降了27% Uh, see, it's only a 27% decline.
这不是Thrish阶段的风格 我知道通常会有50%的下降 That's not very stage Thrish. I know usually you get like 50% declines.
它们要大得多 对吧 但是 我不能确定这是第三阶段直到它进入第四阶段 或者在这里上升回到第二阶段 They're, they're much bigger, uh? But again, I can't determine that this is Stage Three until it goes on the Stage four, or or moves higher here and goes into back into a Stage two.
啊 让我看看 你能举个例子 如果你只是做短线交易 你会如何追踪止损 Ah, let's see. Can you show an example of how you would trail a stop if you're only short term trading and playing for only the 1st leg up?
嗯 当然 我的意思是 有很多方法可以做到这一点 Um, sure. I mean, there's a number of ways you can do that.
换做是我 也不会有太大不同 I mean, I wouldn't do it much differently.
嗯 你是说拖车停下了吗 Um. And did you say trail trailer stop up?
我自己通常不使用尾随停止 So I don't usually use trailing stops myself.
我 我通常做的是后停车 I-I, what I do is I usually back stop.
你可以 你可以称它为尾随停顿 或者 我想不是一个 不是一个词 And you could, you could call that a trailing stop, or, I guess not a, not a uh word.
它随着 It moves up with
那个 那个价格 我一般会 the, um, with the price. I'll generally what'll
发生的情况是股票会卖出 然后我会决定我想要保护的水平 happen is the stock will move out, and then I'll just decide on a level I want to protect.
但我通常都卖得很好 But I-I normally sell into strength.
一旦我们有了像样的游戏 And then once we get it a decent game.
最好的例子是 把我的图表往上移 The perfect example is, just move up my chart.
我在这里 有一个很好的例子 Here I am V-T. There's a perfect example.
我不知道单元格数据在哪里 So let's get the, I don't know where the cell data is on this.
我们要从哪里削减呢 Where do we cut that back?
不 购买日期是1031年 Um, no, the buy date was 1031.
只要在表格上标一下就行了 It's just mark on the chart.
我去检查一下 是的 1031年 I'll check is out. Yeah, 1031.
1031号 我买的有点晚 The 1031 right here, which I bought that a little late.
然后我把它切成两半 Um, then I cut it in half.
我想大概是117mark 有些花费 I think it was probably on eleven seven mark of that, some expense.
嗯 而现在 为了找到正确的东西 我把它一分为二 Um. And now, you know, I-I cut in half to find things correctly.
11 7 所以我在这里切了一些 有少量的 可观的利润 Eleven seven, so I cut some out here, have little, decent, little swing profit.
现在它推迟了几天 现在又从这里出现了 And now it pulled back a few days, and now it's turning up from here.
从这里开始 如果河岸下降 这是一种假设的自然作用 就像这里一样 对吧 So from here, if this banks are ue down, this is a little little supposed natural action, just like here, right?
我们得到了一个小的自然反应它出来了 你得到了一个自然反应 We got a little natural reaction here it came out here, you got a natural reaction.
繁荣 网球动作 另一种自然反应 Boom. Tennis ball action. Another natural reaction.
小小的网球动作 这是自然反应 Little tennis ball action. Now you get in a natural reaction.
这样就不会有高地了 This should get back into no high ground.
好吧 尤其是从一个有动力的游戏中 All right, especially coming from a powered play.
所以如果它从这里脱落并开始回来 这不是不正常的 So if this were to come off here and start coming back, that's not being abnormal.
所以我移动了止损点以达到收支平衡 So I moved my stop to break even.
这是一种经典的交易方式 我会卖给有实力的人 减一些 So this is just a classic way that I would trade that I will, uh, selling to strength, take some off.
然后 当你经过看起来很自然的时候 我开始向上移动止损 然后从那里开始 如果它继续向上 我就会再次卖出 Then, as you go through what, what looks natural, um, I start moving the stop up, and then from there, if it should move up more, I'll sell into strength again.
我要做的另一件事是创造不对称的杠杆 我已经有了利润 所以它下降到盈亏平衡 So, other what I do is I create isymmetric leverage, so I-I already got a profit, so it goes down to break even.
我要么赚更多的钱 要么收支平衡 I either make more money, or I break even.
而且我已经存了钱 存了钱在银行里 对吧 And I've already put money to put, uh, dollars in the in the bank, right?
这就是我通常的做法 So that's how I'd do it normally.
嗯 现在 如果我要做短线交易 你知道 当你说第一步的时候 那么我只要在我切成两半的那天卖掉所有的东西 Um. Now, whether I was gonna, if I was gonna short term trade this, um, you know when you say the 1st move, well, then I just sell everything on the day that I cut in half.
我就会这么做 你知道吗 That's how I would do it, you know?
我甚至不会跟踪一站 I wouldn't even trail a stop.
我会把它转化成力量 I would just dump it into strength.
但如果你想追踪它 你不是真正的短线交易在雇主 嗯 你知道 任何更短的时间 那么 你知道 是的 你只需要进入保护模式 But if you want to trail it, you're not really short term trading at employer, um, you know, for any shorter than that, then, you know, yeah, you just have to go into protection mode.
看 这就是让股票进行短线交易的问题 使用 呃 使用防御性的数 意思是用数来交易股票会对你不利 See, here's the problem with with letting stocks come with short term trading, and using, uh, using defensive severals, meaning that using severals with the stock goes against you.
问题是你一开始的收益太少了当股票触及到几个防御线时使用移动平均线 Problem is that you have so little gain to begin with that by the time the stock hits those defense of severals and use moving averages, uh uh.
你知道 追踪止损 你几乎返还了你所有的利润 或相当一部分 这就违背了整个目的 You know, trailing stops, you've given back almost all your profit, or a good portion of it, and that just that defeats the whole purpose.
所以我尝试了短期的 So I tried on short term.
我几乎从不使用拖冰来增加强度 I almost never use trailing any ice sell right into strength.
所以我只是开始止损 或者我卖出 然后让我自己在更大的动作中持有它 So I just my initial stop, or I sell to strength, and then to to get myself to get to hold it for a bigger move.
这就是我融资的地方 我卖的是力量 一部分 为我的止损提供资金 现在我的选择开放了 如果这有意义的话 That's where I finance. I sell to strength, part of it, finance my stop, and now my options open up, if that makes sense.
詹姆斯问过我H-L-V-X的名字 James has asked me the name like H-L-V-X.
跳起来 H-L-V-X交易清淡 形成了紧密的支点 Spring it up. H-L-V-X that is thinly traded, forming a tight pivot.
我们在买入之前要先看看价差吗 Do we watch the spread before trying to buy?
eg今天的价差是50到0 70美元 因为它试图突破 这是3%的范围 E.G. today has spread a 50 to $0.70 as it was trying to break out, which is range of 3 %.
在进行测试之前不应该把它看得太紧所以 嗯 嗯 我们我们今天早上讨论过这个问题 Shouldn't be looking for this to betraying much tighter before putting in a test by So, um, um, we we talked about this one this morning.
是的 你知道 这是一个很好的观察 And, yeah, you know, that's a good, very good observation.
你现在确实需要看一下价差 如果你真的把风险控制得非常紧 嗯 价差是绝对是必须考虑的事情 因为如果价差是 嗯 你知道 4%或5% 在这种情况下 你说3% 而你快到6% 你知道 你几乎已经在那里了 You do need to look at the spread now, if you're, you know, really keeping your risk really super tight, um, the spread is is is definitely something that has to be considered, because if the spread is, uh, you know, four or 5 %, in this case, you say 3 %, and you're brisking six, you know, you're almost already there.
所以这是绝对正确的 So that is absolutely true, um.
这就是为什么 当你得到一个很大的价差时 你想买它的方向 随着它的移动 他们会提高出价 And that's why, when you get a spread that's wide, you want to be buying it in the direction as it's moving, and they're bringing the bid up.
然后你要非常仔细地观察它 看它是否在移动 是否跟着移动 是否真的在它上面 And then you've got to watch it very carefully to see if it's moving and following through and really be on top of it.
这就是为什么 我只会在市场爆发的情况下这样做 在一个非常好的市场中 这只股票会从这里上涨 And that's why, again, I'm only gonna do this in a market where break out, so working see, in a really good market, this stock just rips out of here.
我的意思是 它它开始向上移动 然后它就离开了这里 I mean, it it starts moving up, and it just rips out of here.
这个价差在艰难的市场中并不重要 这就是所发生的 And this spread doesn't matter that much in a been a tough market, this is what happens.
它开始运动 你开始 你跳上车 It starts going. You start, you jump on board.
在你回过头来之前 差距已经很大了 Before you know it, turns back around, the spread is already wide.
你的5%在几秒钟内就会被淹没 这就是我如何知道我是在一个糟糕的市场还是一个好的市场 Your 5% underwater in seconds. And that's how I can I know I'm in a crappy market versus a good market.
现在 市场很好 你知道的 我怎么买都不够 Now, good market, it's, you know, I-I can't buy enough.
它在我身上起飞了 我不能在市场不景气的时候 你只能吃这个 It takes off on me. and I can't get my position on In a bad market, it's all you can eat.
这是自助餐 他们给你所有你想要的存货 让你进门 就像在布朗克斯尾 他们锁上门说 现在你不能走 It's a buffet. They give you all the stock you want, let you in the door, and like in the Bronx Tail, they lock the door and say, now you can't leave.
在你意识到之前 你就知道你做不到 And before you know it, you know you can't.
你甚至不能卖掉你买的股票然后离开 You can't even sell the shares that you're bought and get out.
所以你就是 是的 你是它是 So you're it? Yes, you're it's
非常好的观察 雷蒙德在问D-G关于足球的事 a very good observation. Raymond is asking about D-G for the soccer.
G是4 11月不错 G is four of November is good.
回调时 价格运行以上03 11高点 Pullback by when price run above 03:11 high.
我不确定我是否会提起这件事 I'm not sure I'm going to bring that up.
让我们看看你在说什么 Let's see what you're talking about.
你说的是11月4日凌晨3点11分 03 11的高潮在哪里 You're saying, november 4, 03:11 high. Where's the 03:11 high?
八月来吧 让我们第一次约会 Come in august. Let's 1st, get your 1st date.
你说11月4日 第四题在这里 然后你是3点11分 我完全懵了 So you said November four. Number four is right here, and then you're on 03:11 high that I'm completely baffled.
我不知道这和3点11分的兴奋有什么关系 但我告诉你 I don't know what the 03:11 high has anything to do with it, but I'll just tell you this.
这是一个撤退的地方 很明显 嗯 你知道 这有点 This is a pullback by right here, obviously, um, you know, this is a bit.
这是第一次拉回 This runs right up 1st pull back.
所以这有点冒险 So this is a little risky.
你的右侧没有任何发育 You don't really get any type of right side, uh development.
它会立即进入这里 并消除这些低点 And immediately comes in here and takes out those lows.
所以我还是会看这个 So I would still watch this, though.
我想看看这是否能建立正确的一面 也许会得到另一个拉力 它发展到这里 它收紧一点 或者你得到一个更大的基础 你真的开始建立和收紧这里的供应 I would see if this could build the right side, maybe get another pull back by develops over here, and it tightens up a bit, or you get a bigger base, and you really start setting up and tightening up into this supply here.
嗯 让我想想 什么时候会发出大师交易员课程的链接 Uh, let's see, when will links for master trader program be sent out?
你应该 你应该收到电子邮件 你应该收到电子邮件 每天的工作手册都发出去了 嗯 Well, you should be, you should have got emails, and you should have got email to day workbooks went out, um?
今天早上应该会有一封邮件发出去 或者你可能是最近才收到的 它会解释所有的行程安排和所有的事情 And there should be an email that went out this morning, or maybe just, you might have just recently got it, and it will explain all the itinerary and everything.
B-J是否通过一些供应 Is B-J working through some supply?
我不确定 这是个很模糊的问题 但是 我不知道那是什么意思 I'm not sure. It's a very vague question, but, um, I-I don't know what that means.
B-J型绳索断了已经穿过了供给线 现在又拉回了这里 I mean, B-J rope broke out and already worked through the supply, and now it's pulling back here.
所以我们要看看 它是如何处理左边的最小供给的 So we'll have to see, uh, you know, how it handles this minimal supply here on the left side.
让我们今天看看 我买了B-J和PCB-X Let's see today. I bought B-J and PC B-X.
请评估 我不会为了30美分的收益卖掉B-J股票 Please evaluate. I wasn't going to sell B-J for a 30 cent gain.
我希望能有更大的变动 这样我就能抵消在PCBX这样的股票上的损失 这种情况经常发生 希望在药片平面开始起作用之前突破策略 Was hoping to get a bigger move so I could offset losses on stocks like PCBX, which happened frequently, hoping to break out strategy above the pill plane starts to work.
自2月21日以来 PCVX一直是我的经验 PCVX has been my experience since February 21.
我是说 我不知道你的问题是什么 说实话 我希望能有更大的进展 Yeah, so again, I mean, I-I don't know what your question is, to be honest with you, um, was hoping for a bigger move.
是啊 我不知道我在评估什么 Yeah, I don't know what I'm evaluating.
我是说 我买了 我也做了同样的事 I mean, I-I bought the, I did the same thing.
所以 嗯 你知道 现在我们必须等着看 如果股票起作用 我们有止损 So, um, you know, now we have to wait and see if the, if the stock works, we have a stop loss.
啊 让我看看 Brian问Mark一个关于投资组合管理的问题 Ah, let's see. Brian question for Mark r on portfolio management.
在美联储会议纪要之前的11点1分 我的头寸很好 所有交易的风险敞口约为35% 去手腕化 持有3%的开放式投资组合 On eleven one before FED minutes, I was in a good position with about 35% exposure all trades, de wrist and carrying 3% in open portfolio.
钢琴 好的 太好了 我今年下跌了大约6% 这是我最大的下跌之一 但当时我的交易都没有延期 Piano. Okay, that's great. I'm down around six per cent this year, one of my largest drawdowns, but none of my trades were extended at the point.
R-G-N在1024买入 就是一个很好的例子 R-G-N bought on 1024, is a good example.
我更多的是一个波动头寸交易者 所以我的计划是坚持止损 等到持仓时间延长时再卖出 尽管我本可以将减持量减半 I'm more of a swing position trader, so my plan was to stick to my stops and wait to sell until the holdings got extended, even though I could have cut my drawdown in half.
你会如何处理这种情况 How would you handle that kind of situation?
你在看那个标记吗 是的 我想是的 Are you reading that mark? Yeah, I think so.
我想我理解这个问题了 I think I'm understanding the question.
我不知道这和美联储会议记录有什么关系 Um, I don't know what the fed minutes have to do with it.
如果这就是他想说的 他想卖掉它 If that's maybe that was what he was saying, sparked to sell off it.
它停了几站 但我认为你的分析很好你知道你所承担的风险 你的止点在哪里 还有 你知道 提前评估这些 That hit some stops. But I think your analysis is great one you know what the risk you are carrying, where your stops are, and, and, you know, assessing this beforehand.
所以如果你真的完成了这些步骤你问自己 我们在哪里停止 So if you did really go through the steps that you asked yourself in terms of, you know, where where are we to all stops?
我一直在问布兰登这个问题 That's something I ask Brandon all the time.
如果所有东西都被击中 我们在哪里 Where where are we if everything gets hit?
然后讨论说 这是不是太多了 And then having the discussion to say, well, is that too much?
如果你确定它不是太多 所有东西都被击中了 你就不能去钱 钱 早上 四分之一 If you make the determine that it's not too much, and everything gets hit, you can't then go money, money, morning, quarterbacking.
你做了那个决定 你得 你得坚持你的计划 You made that decision. You got to, you got to sort of stick with your plan.
我觉得你在考虑这个问题 对吧 So I think you're thinking about it, right?
问题就变成了 如果你说 我不喜欢 你知道 大的损失 你知道 在一两天内 The question becomes, if you're saying, I don't like taking, you know, that big losses, and, you know, one to two days?
那么 当你做这个决定的时候 你要看看你有多少缓冲 Well, then you have to look at to how much cushion were you carrying when you made that decision?
如果你没有 那可能就太多了 If you had zero, then it might have been too much.
如果是的话 我会 我会称赞你我认为你对投资组合管理的思考是正确的 Um, if so, I-I would just, I would compliment you on the fact that I think you're thinking about the portfolio management correctly.
然后是一个关于你最适应的个人问题 Then just a sort of a personal question in terms of what you're most comfortable with.
是的 嗯 所以说 你周一表现得很好 但今天呢 Yeah, uh. So as saying, you were cool and well on Monday, but what pcv X today?
图表看起来很好 或者请解释一下 The charts look very well. Or please explain?
你错了 图表看起来不太像 Well, you're wrong, the charts don't look very similar.
也许它们看起来很好 也许它们看起来很相似 但它们非常不同 Maybe they look well, maybe they look similar, but they're very different.
首先 如果你看一下 它上升了大约7879 我们称它为80% So, 1st of all, if you take a look at well, it goes up about 7879, let's call it 80 %.
嗯 我们看一下pcvx pcvx上升了超过100% Um. And we take a look at pcv x, pcvx moved up over 100 %.
所以这符合权力游戏的标准 So this meets the power play criteria.
这是第一点 第二 嗯 That's number one. Number two, um.
如果你回到这里 看看PCVX 这里有一段休眠期 然后它以巨大的体积爆炸 if you go back here and you look at PCVX, there's a period of dormancy here, and it explodes from it with gigantic volume.
我们来看看RALL We took a look at RALL.
事实恰恰相反 这只股票已经大幅上涨 而且还在扩张 It's just the opposite. This is a stock that's gone up huge and is getting extended.
所以这是 这更像是 So this is, this is more of an
疲惫的招式比脱离的招式好 exhaustion move than it is a breakaway move.
最后 今天没有主元基数了 我不知道为什么要买这个当P-C X从一个基数中出来 从一个基数中出来 And finally, there's no pivot base it's coming out of today, so I'm not sure why I would buy this when when P-C, the X is coming out of a base and emerging from a base.
所以我看不出有什么相似之处 So I-I don't, I don't see the similarities.
很好 我知道你在说什么 你知道 相似 你知道 模糊地相似 但很多不同的东西 Nice, I see you what you're saying, you know, similar, you know, vaguely so similar, but many different things.
当你 当你正确看待事物的时候 When you, when you take put in perspective.
我希望这对大家有帮助 目前为止 I hope that's helpful. Gary XM T-R-X-M-T-R So far.
到目前为止 我选股很烂 但我很擅长承受损失 See, so far I suck up picking stocks, but I'm really good at taking losses.
我得告诉你 这是个好的开始 因为我一开始也是这样 Well, that's a good start, I gotta tell you, cause I was the same way in the beginning.
我 我 我很擅长 我很不擅长 选股 I-I-I-I was pretty good at taking, well, I sucked at, uh, picking stocks.
我在早期的几笔交易中很幸运 一个刚刚破产 另一个是aliceChommer 4美元的股票 这是我的第一笔交易 And I got lucky on A-A few early on, one one coming out of bankruptcy, and one that was a $4 stock, alice Chommer, which was my very 1st trade.
但我很快就开始亏损 But I very quickly started taking losses.
不幸的是 我并没有虔诚地去做 Unfortunately, I didn't do it religiously.
但是 是的 我明白你的意思 But, yeah, so I-I understand what you're saying.
我们都会经历这些 让我们看看你的问题是什么 We all go through this. Let's see what your question is.
我在11一号买了一台xmtR 在11二号卖了 卖得一塌糊涂 I bought an xmt R on Eleven One, sold on Eleven two, got a crap fill.
遭受了长期以来最大的损失 超过7% Took largest loss in a long time, over 7 %.
现在我很高兴当时我承担了损失 Now I'm pretty happy I took the loss then.
是啊现在看起来还不错 对吧 Yeah, now now it looks pretty good, right?
谢谢你教会我们要勇于承担损失 Um, thanks for teaching us to take the losses.
我把它当成了早期回合 F-Y-I was playing it as an early turn.
9月9日开始 加入他们 移动平均线 Join them, moving average, starting on september 9.
是的 看到了吧 这就是为什么我要告诉你们 当你投资这样的股票时 看 72703%的跌幅 Yeah. See, this is the thing when, this is why I try to tell you guys, when you play a stock like this, look, uh, 7270 3% decline.
嗯 实际上有一个例子 我要 呃 我刚在大师交易员程序手册中看过 我这周会用这个Gopro Um, there's there's an example actually, that I'm going to uh, that I just went over in the Master trader program workbook, that I'll be using this this week of Gopro.
如果你看一下goPro 我甚至不再是职业选手了 甚至不在身边了 And if you take a look at go Pro, I don't even go pros, not even around anymore.
MarkgoPro连这个都不是 Mark go Pro is not even this.
让我看看能不能找到 Let me see if I can find it.
但是Gopro有一个很大的下降 然后它上升 然后它形成了一个类似的基座 像这样 但它是一个很高的手柄 我记得很多人问我 我说它是在同样的文明游行中满的 But Gopro had a big decline, then it ran up, and then it formed a similar base, like this where, but it was a high handle, and I remember a lot of people asked about and I said it was full in the same civil march.
Epiro 好的 我要看一下 Epiro. Okay, I'm going to look that.
我马上就会给你们看我马上就会给你们看 I'm going to show you that in a 2nd I'm going to show you that.
也许能看看我脑子里还有没有过山车 Might see if my brain has got the President roller deck still.
但是 当你在早期转向时 会有很大的下降 你会进入供给 所有这些因素结合在一起 你会增加遇到问题的概率 你知道 你会被供应压倒 But again, when you get the early turn, you got the big decline, you're heading into supply, you know, all those factors together, you're increasing the probability of running into, you know, a problem with that, and getting overwhelmed with so supply.
让我们打开Gopro 我想看看我的记忆力是否好 Let's bring up Gopro, and I want to see if my memory is good.
啊 那要追溯到 对 很久以前 Ah, that would go back to, yeah, way back here.
看看这个 它们看起来很相似 Take a look at this. And that look similar.
看 看这个 这是一个很大的下降 对吧 Look, look at this. Here's the big decline, right?
下降幅度很大 大约60%左右 There's the big decline, 60 some odd percent.
然后它就出现了 在这个例子中 这200天是一个下降的趋势 这更糟了 Then it comes up. It makes that this, in this case, look at the the 200 days actually in a down trend, so it's even worse.
这里有个高把手 And you get that high handle right here.
大家都说这是杯柄 但这是完全错误的 Everybody's calling this a cup of handle and trying and it's completely faulty.
我是说 我绝对不会考虑购买这样的股票 I mean, there's no way I would ever even entertain going in a stock like this.
和XMXMT-R很像 So it very similar, uh, to XM, XM, T-R.
然后看这个 我的意思是 这是 它只是被k And then look at this. I mean, that was, it just gets k ohed.
看 它被淹没了 这是因为 还有另一件事 为什么它是 它真的很痛 因为在这段时间里 如果我们 如果我们把市场 这是2015年 在这段时间里 从10月到这里 这支股票下跌了60% See, it's overwhelmed. That's because, and here's other thing too go prot one of the reasons why it was, it really stuck out like a sore thumb, is because during this period right here, if we, if we bring up the market, this is back 2015, during this period, from October to here, this stock went down 60 per cent.
但我认为 市场在这期间只修正了10%甚至可能上涨了 But the market, I think, only corrected ten or maybe even went up during that period.
我不知道我们在看什么当我们看到 呃 可能会提到道指 I don't know what we look at when we look at the, uh, may bring up the Dow.
看看道琼斯指数 2000点是在2015年10月 Just look at the Dow. 2000 was October 2015.
2000年10月 这里是2015年10月的 是的 就在这里 October 2000. Physical back there, see, yes, over here in October 2015 is, yeah, right here.
所以你所以我猜你你穿过了后面的这根杆子 So you're So I guess you you went through this pole back here.
也许它没有下降那么多 但我知道 如果在那个时期它是16% 市场下降了16% Maybe it wasn't down that much, but I know if during that period it was about 16 %, market was down about 16 print percent.
Goldpro修正了62 表现远逊于市场 表现远逊于市场 Gold pro corrected 62. So again, way underperforming the market, Way under performing the market.
好了 我们继续 All right, let me move on here.
嗯 H-O-L额外学院 好吧 试着说说我的看法 Um? H-O-L Extra College, please. Okay, try to give my comments on it.
嗯 哦男孩 是的 我很好奇上面是多少 Um? Oh boy. Yeah. So just curious how much it went up here.
好吧 我的意见是它不符合我的任何标准 Okay, my comments are I it doesn't meet any of my criteria whatsoever.
不知道你想让我怎么说 Um, not sure what you expect me to say about this?
不 我想说的是 如果你喜欢这个 你想让我在这方面有所了解 你可能需要重新阅读我的书 特别是 你知道的 关于趋势的最基本的部分 No, I would say that if you're entertaining this and you want me to common on it, you probably need to go and re read my books, particularly the, you know, the most basic sections on the trend.
你知道 从什么开始限定词呢 You know, what is a qualifier to begin with?
因为这只股票不符合我的任何标准 Because this is a stock that would meet not any of my criteria whatsoever.
这就是我的看法 So that's, I mean, that's my comment.
嗯 让我看看 你觉得B-L-T-E-B-L-T-E怎么样 Um, let me see here. What do you think about B-L-T-E-B-L-T-E?
静止在右边 Stillness is off the right side?
哦男孩 你的意思是你觉得小B-L-T看起来像短的再说一遍 我不确定你在看什么 Oh boy. Well, you mean you think a little B-L-T looks like a short So again, I'm not sure what you're looking at here.
你们需要回去阅读阅读我的书 50%下降 所以在这里交易 And you guys need to go back and read read my books, 50% decline, so trade in down here.
我是说 这看起来很糟糕 也许它在这里爆炸然后从这里翻三倍 I mean, this just looks terrible, um, so maybe it explodes here and it triples from here.
但这只股票不符合我的任何标准 But this is not a stock that would meet any of my criteria.
所以再说一次 如果你问这样的股票 你需要再说一次 这就是这个词 So again, this is, you know, if you're asking about stocks like this, you need to and again, this is the word.
我们把它涂成紫色 We put this on violet right here.
顺便说一下 这只是对比一下我们所看到的 By the way, just to show it in contrast where we're looking at it.
嗯 我们在这里放了一些紫色 就在那里 就在它发射到月球之前 UM, we put some violet right over here, right there, just before it blasted off to the moon.
嗯 一次又一次 然后你必须在这里休息 UM And and again. Then you had to break here.
而现在你 现在 你 你完全失控了 And now you just, now, you're, you're wide loose.
这是IPO第二阶段的一个完美例子 This is a perfect example of, you know, IPO Stage Two.
很明显 这是第三阶段 最好是第一阶段 And this is, clearly, you know, stage three, stage One at the very best.
这是早期的第一阶段 你知道 在第三阶段 在第四阶段 It's early Stage One at at, you know, at the and maybe Stage Three going at the Stage four.
让我看看 现在几点了 Let's see, what time is it here?
哦 3日 好了 还有一点 Oh, 3rd. Okay, we got a little bit more.
HGML是一只表现优于市场的股票 但并没有给我们提供很多低风险的切入点 HGML is a stock that has been out performing the market, but hasn't given us many low risk entry points.
让我们把它提上来 1日 让我们看看我们在看什么 但是在11点之间 不好意思 10月11日到14日之间 价格高于10月10日的高点 10月10日的低点止损点是合理的入口点 对吧 Let's bring it up. 1st. Let's see what we're looking at, but by wood by between eleven, I'm sorry, october 11, 14th, with the price above the high of october 10, and the stop at low the 10th be reasonable entry point, right?
那是10月11日 在这里 是啊 如果有个停车点 我会把停车点 放在帐篷下面 So that's october 11, right here. Yeah, so, um, with a stop, I would have put the stop, yeah, below the tents.
你可以 那将是 你知道 或者可能到下面这里 You can, that would be, you know, or maybe down to here.
另一种方法是交错排列 如果你喜欢的话 Another way would do the staggered if you really like it.
你在这里停车 You put a stop right here.
他们在这里画了一个句号 And they put a stop here.
我不知道 这背后的数学会让你说 这看起来很紧 I don't know. The math behind this will let you say, this looks pretty tight.
现在你得到了中间的平均值 And now you get, you get an average in between.
你可以给它一点空间 也许稍微早一点 也许它在那里削弱 产生一个摇出 但是你给它下面一点空间 And you can give it a little bit of room, maybe a little early, maybe it undercuts there and creates a shake out, but you give it a little bit more room down here.
所以我可能会在像这样的短基座上使用交错停止 So I would probably use a staggered stop on a short base like that.
但是 是的 这是一个非常合理的代价 But, yeah, that's a very reasonable toll.
绝对是从入口回来的 嗯 10月18日 马克有一张图表 显示了标普500指数中承压股票的百分比 Back by entry, absolutely. Um. On october 18, mark has a diagram that indicates a percentage of stocks in the S-P 500 that are under pressure.
我们在哪里可以找到这个 好吧 首先 这不是标普500 Where can we find this? Okay, well, 1st of all, it's not the S-P 500.
它是整个市场 或者说我们跟踪的所有股票 也就是 我不知道 8或10000只股票 It's the entire market, or all the stocks that we follow, which is, I don't know, eight or 10000 stocks.
这是第一点 嗯 第二 这是我们将提供的东西 嗯 在不久的将来 我们将能够得到处于压力下的股票百分比的图表 So that that's number one. Um, number two, this is something that we will be making available, um, in not so distant future, We will be able to get that chart of the percentage stocks that are under pressure.
同时 我们将会有图表 我们将会有 我们被模仿 或者将会是 你们将会有图表 And also, we're going to be having charting, and we're going to be having, we're modeled, or is going to be, you're going to have charting.
你可以打开monolert 它会以一种非常独特 非常酷 非常有用的方式 在图表上突出违例确认 You could turn monolert on, and it will highlight on the chart the confirmations of violations in a way that's very unique and very cool and very useful.
所以我们我们计划了一些非常非常棒的事情 So we we've got some really, really awesome things planned.
你会得到所有这些 So you'll get all of that.
这在今年年初就会发生 And that's going to happen sometimes by the beginning of the year.
所以不太远 一个月 你知道 一两个月 几个月 So not too far off, a month, you know, month or two, a couple months away.
呃 让我想想 渐进式曝光问题 Uh, let's see. Progressive exposure question.
在D-G-I-I-i买了少量的股票 十一8 Bought small position in D-G-I-I. Eleven eight.
我今天要增加职位吗 Should I add to the position today?
还是已经在扩展了 Or is it already to extend it?
11-8 显然就在这里 它会被你拉回来 So Eleven eight, obviously is right here, and will pull back by you held through that.
嗯 我有这种波动性 我的意思是 我可能在高点附近 Um, I with this kind of volatility, I mean, I probably up around the highs.
当我搬到高处时 我可能会卖掉一半 你知道 我可能会 When I went to the high ground, I probably would have sold half of it, you know, I-I probably would.
在目前的市场形势下 我可能会卖出一些 In this market, the way it's been, I probably would have sold a little bit then.
我宁愿不加 也不加 Instead of adding to it, I wouldn't add to it.
不过我很保守 所以我会把这匹礼物马拿去 I-I I'm very conservative, though, so what I would do is I take this gift horse.
我的意思是 你经历了这一切 这一段后撤 你并没有被拦下 I mean, you went through this, this pull back here, you didn't get stopped out.
它现在非常不稳定 你会得到这笔意外之财 你知道 短期的意外之财 真正的大变动 嗯 上升 我不知道 在高点时上升15%左右 It's really volatile now. You get this windfall, you know, the short term windfall, the really big move here, um, up, I don't know, 15% or so up at the highs.
你知道 我可能会在那里切断一些 可能是四分之一或一半的头寸 融资止损 现在给它很多空间 You know, I would have probably just cut off some of it there, maybe a quarter or half my position, finance my stop, and now give it a lot of room.
接下来会发生一件事 So now one of a couple things will happen.
要么它变得非常不稳定 把你挡在门外 你不会损失一分钱 要么它涨得更高 你赚更多钱 Either it, you know, it gets real volatile and it stops you out and you don't lose any money, or it goes or goes higher and you make more money.
或者它会在一段时间内收缩 变得更有建设性 然后你把它加回去 Or maybe it pulls back and it tightens up over a period of time, and it gets a little more constructive and you add it back.
就是这样 That would be the way.
这就是我要寻找的选择 That would sort of be my options that I would be looking for.
到今天为止 左西会被认为是一种倒退吗 Is L-W considered a pull back by today?
拉出来 不 不 真的不是 Pull that up? No, no, it's really not.
这并不是这个图表 你知道 我们在这里开始变酸 看起来不那么好 That's, that's not that this chart is, you know, we're starting a sour here and not looking looking that great.
所以 你知道 把我们的我们的站推到这里 So, you know, pushing our our stop here.
这里有拉力 有一点类似网球的动作 You had this pull back here, you got a little bit of quasi tennis ball action.
应该在这里稳定下来 Really should have stabilized right here.
我知道我明白你的意思 但你今天没穿一件好衣服 只是 你知道 在这一点上 没有一个好的撤退的样子 I mean, I know I understand what you're saying, but you didn't get a good clothes on this day, just doesn't, you know, have the look of a good pull back by at this point.
嗯 所以 我是说 你可以买到任何东西 Um? So, I mean, you can buy anything.
我的意思是 你可以说任何回调 把前几天的高点作为回调 I mean, you could say anything that pulls back and takes out the previous days high as a pullback by.
但是他们在某种行为中有一种特定的表情 But there is a certain look that they have in a certain type of action.
尤其是现在外面的天气 And this doesn't especially now with the outside day.
所以 嗯 让我想想 就我的信心而言 我当然应该希望pcbx不要蹲着 So, um, let's see. For my confidence, I should surely hope pcbx doesn't squat.
我想再次取得成功 I want to succeed well again.
但你不能这么看 But see, you can't look at it that way.
如果你在玩扑克 你得到了a 你说 天哪 我希望我不要输a 如果我输了a 我的信心就会下降 If you were to play in poker and you got aces, and you say, oh my God, I hope I don't lose with aces, if I lose with aces, I'm going to have my confidence just going to go down.
我不知道我是要重新打牌还是用a大赌 I don't know if I'm going to build the places again or bet strong with aces.
我的意思是 那将是 你知道 那将是非常无知的 因为a是你最好的手牌 I mean, that would be, you know, that would be very ignorant, you know, because aces are your best hand.
所以即使你输了也不能改变这一点 So And in the fact that you lost with them doesn't change that.
股票并不是来找你麻烦的 It doesn't change that the stock isn't out to get you.
它不认识你 它不在乎 It doesn't know you. It doesn't care.
所以再说一次 你只需要玩牌 保守地玩直到你得到一些利润 然后你就可以加大力度 你就不用那么紧张了 你知道 如果 你知道 只是什么时候 什么时候或输的问题 你知道 你知道 你的胜率会让你沮丧 那么 你就进错了行 So again, you have to just play the hands, play them conservatively until you get some some profits, and then you can step it up, and you won't have to be so nervous, you know, that's And if it's, you know, a matter of just when, when or lose, and that, you know, blosses, you know, your win rate is gonna upset you, well, then you've been the wrong business.
因为我们一直都是错的 你知道 我错的比对的多 Because this is, we're wrong all the time here, you know, I'm, I'm wrong more than I'm right.
但是我必须 你知道 你必须管理它 你知道 并且设法降低风险 So, but I have to, you know, you have to manage it, you know, and and manage to mitigate the risk.
这才是最重要的 而不是对与错 That's what it's all about, not about being right or wrong.
嗯 目前 25%投资于我的长期投资1k现在是把我的投资增加到50%的合适时机吗 Um, currently, 25% in 25% invested in my long term for one k is now the right time to increase my exposure to 50 %?
是的 是关于S-P的 你知道的 你知道的 长期趋势模型 Yeah, is with the S-P ys, you know, the, you know, with the long term trend model.
很明显 我们的风险模型还没有完善 Um, you know, went polish, obviously, but our own risk models have not.
我还是要小心一点 I still would be a little bit careful here.
我认为我们可以在标普500指数上运行到200天 I think we may be able to run up to the 200 day on the on the S-P 500.
我会寻找回调 你知道 在这一点上 嗯 如果你要增加敞口 我会买S-P-M回调 你知道 I will look for pullbacks, you know, at this point, where UM, if you're going to move that exposure up, I would buy the S-P-M pullbacks, you know.
这是相对于带有sd的股票 This is where um as opposed to a stock with the sd P.
是的 我们来这里 我们在这里补几天 也许 如果它继续 好吧 好吧 Yeah, we come in here, and we fill in here for a couple of days, maybe, and if it keeps going, fine, all right.
所以 你知道 你可能得以后再付钱 So, you know, you might have to pay up for it later on.
但最主要的是 你要小心追逐 追逐空白 上涨和指数 因为它们是非常随机的 很少有大的空白没有被填补 它们会从你身边跑开 But the main thing is is, you know, you gotta be careful chasing, chasing the gaps and the run ups and the indexes, because they're very random, and there's very few big gaps that don't get filled, and they run and they just run away from you.
所以我会 我会更倾向于一根杆子 呃 r-y-t-m-我 我要结束了 So I would, I would look more on a pole back, um, R-Y-T-M-I-I gotta wrap it up.
这里还有两个 装载表上的R-Y-T-M So just two more here. R-Y-T-M on a load sheet.
是的 我的意思是 这不是 我的意思是 就目光短浅而言 这是非常便宜的 Yeah, I mean, this is not, I mean, it is a load cheap as far as looking at it myopically.
如果这是在危险点附近交易的好方法 但我不会太激进 And if this is a great way to trade near the danger point, but I wouldn't get aggressive here.
我 我只是 它不嗯 它在牙齿上变得太长了 I-I just, it just doesn't um, it's getting really long on the tooth.
你的身体已经开始变平了50天了 Um, you're starting to flatten out here on the on the, uh, 50 day.
它在这50天里生活了很长时间 It's been living around that 50 day for a long time.
我不喜欢他们很强壮的时候 50天之内都不回来了 I-I don't like that when they're really strong, they don't even come back to the 50 days.
事实上 它在这里标记 这就像是第一次罢工 然后它就不能真正反弹了 The fact that it tagged it here, that was like sort of strike number one, then then it it's just can't really rally.
我不知道 马克 你会怎么读 I don't know. Mark, well, how would you read this?
因为我认为你会用同样的方式理解它 但也许你会用不同的方式解释它 Because I think you'd read it the same way, but maybe you would explain it differently.
是啊 我只是想 火车不会准时进站的 Yeah, well, I would just, my mind goes to the train's not coming in on schedule.
如果真的对我有很大的影响 我早就料到了 If it's really gonna have a big move to me, I would have expected.
回到另一个图表 仍然非常强劲 Going back to that other chart, still really strong.
我喜欢 我喜欢有力量的女孩 And I-I do, I do like girl of strength is good.
我会希望看到它收紧 I'd want to see it tighten up.
我是说 我确实喜欢右边的小音量 I mean, I do like the low volume here on the right side.
听着 你绝对可以小跑 Look, you could, you could definitely trot.
这将是有创意的 这绝对是一种玩完的方式 This would be creative, and this would definitely be a way to play it off.
如果你要在这里演奏 你就得写 而且你在危险点附近训练 You're going to write if you're going to play it here, and and you're trained right near the danger point.
我就在这里工作 我本打算穿1025 I work right here. I was going to put on 1025.
我差点 差点就在这里弹了 然后就开始弹了 I almost, I almost played it right here, um, and it started to work.
然后 因为它在这个区域的底部 它在这个区域的底部 And then, since it undercut, did undercut that low of that area?
我只是好奇 如果你这里有一点下摆 它就在这里 I'm just curious if you, if you got a little undercut there, it did right here on.
是的 今天绝对是创造 It's, yeah, today is definitely create.
它必须从英雄开始 它基本上是出来的 It has to go from hero, it's basically out.
我是莫克拉姆大师 必须保持11-8的低 It's Master Mokram here. And has to hold that that Eleven eight low.
完全正确 是的 绝对的 好的 最后一个问题 Exactly. Yeah. Absolutely. All right. Last question.
让我看看 我当地的医院和锦标赛 Let me see, um, my local hospital and tournament.
嗯 让我想想 我将给出两个问题 Um, let's see. So I'll actually give two questions.
我们来看雷 呃 你如何看待早期转弯的头顶补给 因为它总是在那里 Let's do ray. Uh? How do you look at overhead supply on early turn Since it is always there?
嗯 它一直在那里 即使是低欺骗 欺骗 总有一些开销供应 Well, it's always there. Even on a low cheat, a cheat, there's always some overhead supply.
我想我之前可能已经回答过了当我展示gopro和另一个的例子时 So I think I might have answered that before when I showed the go pro example versus the other one.
呃 那个X Um, uh, the X,
你知道 你要测量它有多深 有多近 was it xmt R And, you know, you got to measure how deep, how close it is.
嗯 所以 你知道 你走得越低 你知道 转弯越早 Um, so it, it's, you know, the the lower you go, you know, with early turns.
在此之前 你会有一个很大的下降 And it's, you're, you have a big decline prior to that.
这是最近的 是的 我考虑到了这一点 然后它就变成了 你知道 在这一点上它就变成了一门艺术 That's recent. Yeah, I take that in consideration, and it becomes, you know, it comes an art at that point.
这不是很科学 但我可以告诉你 两个月前80%的跌幅要比8个月前 也就是一年前40%的跌幅严重得多 It's not really scientific, but I could tell you this, you know, an 80% decline that happened two months ago is going to be much worse than a 40% decline that happened eight months, you know, a year ago.
毫无疑问 这将需要更多的开销来完成 So without a doubt, that's going to be more overhead supplied to get through.
嗯 让我们看看你 你说的是杰克 盒子里的杰克 对吧 Um, let's look at you. You're bringing up Jack, jack in the box, right?
是的 是的 所以 嗯 这是一个早期的转弯 Yep. Yeah. So, um. And this is an early turn.
你要知道 这不是早期转弯 Just so you know, this is not an early turn.
你买的比早回合早 You're buying it earlier than the early turn.
如果你做对了 这是非常危险的 And this is very risky if you get it right.
太好了 你买的价格更低 但是 你知道 再说一遍 这就像玩 一对3对阵a k q Great, you bought it lower. But, you know, again, this is like playing, you know, pair of threes versus aces, kings, queens.
所以 嗯 你可能看到的是后撤 它不会就这么走了 So, um, you're probably looking at pull back here, and it's not going to just go.
如果有的话 我会直接卖给它 And if it does, I would sell right into it.
所以早期的转变 你希望200天至少有一个月 30天的上升 So the early turn would you want the 200 day to be in an uptread for at least a month, 30 days.
这甚至还没有进入一个上升的阶段 但是你说随着帐篷风的低停 这是头顶供给的早期基础 And this is not even gotten into an uptread yet, but you're saying that with the stop at the low of tents wind, this was the early base on the overhead supply.
是的 你看 你有 你有一个很好的头顶供应 Yeah, you see, you got, you got a good amount of overhead supply here.
所以我宁愿看到它沿着这条线建立起来 抱歉 我宁愿为它支付更高的价格 也许让它反弹到这里 So I would rather see it set up somewhere along these lines, sorry about that, and pay, I'd rather pay a higher price for it, and maybe have it rally up to here.
如果 它可能会停滞在那里 你可能会有另一个机会从基地购买 因为那里有大量的供应 And if, and it'll probably stall out around there, you might get another chance to to buy it from a base, because that's where you've got a lot of supply.
这就给了每天200块的时间也许开始出现 你知道 And that would give the 200 a day a little bit of time to maybe start turning up, you know.
这还为时过早 我从来没有买过这样的股票 And that's still way early. Like I virtually never buy a stock like this.
我正在寻找上升的趋势 I'm looking for the up trend to be in place.
当你回头看那些大赢家的股票时 每个人都想拿到最低的价格 尽早买入 See when, when you go back and you look at the big winning stocks, everybody wants to get the lowest price, to buy it early.
这太没必要了 有两个原因 That's so unnecessary you for two reasons.
第一 你降低了成功的概率 因为最赚钱的股票 最快的股票 已经处于上升趋势中 并且持续了4到5个月 Number one, you lower the probability of success, because the biggest winning stocks, the fastest movers, are in up trends already that are in place for four to five months.
这是第一点 第二 你你会浪费时间 That's number one. Number two, you you lose time.
即使你在很多时候是对的 这些股票也需要更多的时间 Even if you're right a lot of times, these stocks will take a lot more time.
你不会在势头最强的地方买东西 You're not buying where momentum is strongest.
你想要的 你想投资那些有发展势头的股票 那些股价上涨很快的股票 因为时间就是金钱 这非常重要 You want. You want to get in the stock where you've got momentum and and the stocks moving fast, because time is money, and that's really important.
呃 让我看看 最后一个问题 Uh, let me see. Last question.
马克问 你认为在轻松的环境下你的胜率是多少 Mark is asking, what would you say your winning percentages during easy dollar versus hard penny environments?
你说过你有50%的正确率 You've said you're right about 50% of the time.
这是否意味着在像现在这样的时期 你的击球率较低 但在货币宽松时期 你的击球率要高得多 Does that mean you're batting average is lower during times like now, but you're batting average is much better during easy dollar?
暴力吗 绝对的 嗯 在非常好的环境中 我的跑步率是65% 甚至接近70% 有时甚至是68% Violence? Absolutely. UM. In really great environments, I am running 65 %, up to close to 70 %, sometimes 68 %.
那是简短的 但是 那不是 那是不可持续的 UM that's in short stens, though, I that is not UM That is not sustainable.
嗯 在市场非常糟糕的时候 我的价格会降到 你知道 20%到25% UM And in really bad markets, I've gone down to, you know, 20 %, 25 %.
所以我要做的就是制定自己的策略 So I, what I try to do is I try to have my strategy.
我设计的一切都是围绕着在最糟糕的情况下能承受25%到30%的打击率 I design everything around weathering a 25, 30% batting average in the worst of times.
因为如果我能经受得住 那么我的系统中就会有很多失败 你知道 就像扔飞镖一样 需要更糟糕的市场 Because if I can weather that, then I've got a lot of failure built into the system that, you know, throwing darts and needed the worse markets.
我通常是对的 十有八九是对的 I'm usually right, you know, a couple of times out of ten.
所以如果我能经受住这一切 这就是为什么像马克·里奇这样的人 在13年里 从10万美元变成2500万美元 13年里我会减少3年 不超过6% So if I can weather that, that's in that sort of, you know, the secret to why someone like Mark Rich, you go 13 years, you know, turn a hundred grand to 25 million, I'll have a drawdown three years out of 13 years, no more than 6 %.
这就是为什么 你知道 因为他成功地融入了这个体系当他犯错的时候 他 他 他就会跑 我是说 你今年的打击率肯定很低 That's why, you know, because he's managed to build into the system where when he's wrong, and he and he and he's running, I mean, your batting average this year's got to be dismal.
对吧 是啊 是二十年代的 Right? Yeah, it's, it's in the twenties.
20多岁 好了 It's in the twenties. There you go.
马克里基今年跑的是20多岁 So Markridge, he's running in the twenties this year.
他是我认识的最好的叛徒之一 You know, he's one of the best traitors I know.
但是 他只落后个位数 And but, and he's only down single digits.
就是这样 你被打了一顿又一顿 停了又停 停了又停了整整一年 而他的收入却在个位数中间 And so there you go. You've gotten beat up and beat up and stopped and stopped and stopped the whole entire year, and he's down mid single digits.
这是一个下跌了34%的市场 That's in a bare market where the nastics down 34 %.
这是一场胜利 现在 这是一场胜利 That's a win. Now, that's a win.
发生这种情况的唯一原因是因为失败是系统固有的 And the only reason why that happens is because the failure is built into the system.
当一切都很顺利的时候 你就必须 这是一个组合 And then when things are running really good, that's when you've got to it's a combination.
当你的身体平均水平较低 交易规模较小时 你的 你 和风险词汇关系就很好地解释了这一点 When you're body average is low, and you're trading small, your you and your risky word relationship accounts for that well.
此外 你的交易规模很小 所以你确实是在弥补亏损 In addition, you're trading small, so you really pad the downside by building in that failure.
但当一切进展顺利时 你以6065或68%的速度奔跑 这时你就会卡住它 你就会加大力度 变得咄咄逼人 But when things are going good, and you're running at 6065, 68 %, now you jam it, and you put a lot of size on, and you get aggressive.
现在 你知道 这是涡轮增压 Now, you you know, that's turbo charging it now.
听着 类固醇的打击率越高 这就是你要学的 Now, now, the the higher batting average is on steroids, that's what you have to learn.
你必须学会在击球率很低的时候保持真正的保守 通过管理风险回报关系来构建失败 除了 You have to learn to when the batting average is low to be real conservative, building the failure by managing the risk reward relationship in addition to the
低风险 然后正好相反 当一切正常时 low exposure. And then to just the opposite, when everything's working,
当你处于牛市时 你会在良好的身体上得到很大的曝光 你知道 更高的击球率 and when, in you're in a bull market, you get the big exposure on the good body on the, you know, the higher batting average.
好吧 听着 我这周末就去 All right, okay, so with that, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go this weekend.
我不知道什么时候 什么时候我们会有交易大师课程 I don't know when, when we have the master trader program.
有时我无法在一篇大论文中播放一个视频 Sometimes I'm unable to put out a video along a big dissertation.
我们看看市场上会发生什么 We'll see what happens at the market here.
设置完成后 我将在周五运行屏幕 但周六和周日对我来说是从早到晚 所以我们拭目以待 After setups, I'm going to run my screens on Friday, but Saturday and Sunday are from literally from morning till night days for me, so we'll see.
我不确定我能做什么 我可能得在周一做 所以 我可能 不做周末的学习 我可能会在周一的A课上做 但我们走着瞧 I'm not sure what I'm going to be able to produce, and I might have to do it on Monday, so, and I may, instead of doing the, uh, the study session on the weekend, I may just do it live on Monday during cuan A, but we'll see.
我不能确定现在就计划好 I'm not sure plan it by ear right now.
当然 我会尽我所能 Um, I'll do what I can, of course.
然后 嗯 对于那些参加交易大师课程的人 我们整个周末都会看到 当然 接下来的周末和下周一会有现场交易 And then, um, for those of you that are attending the Master Trade program, we'll see all weekend, and then of course, the following weekend and the following Monday for live trading.
希望大家今天和这周都能好好休息 And, uh, hoping guys have a good rest of the day and the week.
嗯 我们回头见 And, uh, we'll see you later.
马克 非常感谢 很感激 Mark, thanks a lot. Appreciate it.
是的 带上我们的人 是的 到时候见 Yep. Take our guys. Yup. See you there.