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大家好 欢迎来到外汇专业培训大师系列视频 我是antonCreel Hi, everybody, I'm welcome to the professional Forex Training, master class video series with me, anton Creel.
欢迎来到位于阳光明媚的新加坡的研究所办公室 And welcome to the Institute's offices here in sunny Singapore.
我们推出专业培训 大师班系列视频已经有几年了 这是一个巨大的成功 It's been a couple of years since we launched the professional training, master class video series. It's a great success.
很多人已经完成了课程 A lot of people have completed the course.
通过了考试 最后成为了协会的交易员 Been through the examination and ended up becoming institute traders.
实际上 研究所的很多人在外汇市场上也非常活跃 所以我们收到了很多请求 And a lot of people are actually in the Institute are very active in the forex market as well, so we've had a lot of requests.
在过去的几年里 Over the last couple of years,
让我们真正开始一个四x课程 For us to actually launch a four x course.
人们要求我们这样做是对的 因为很多系统过程 And people would be right in asking us to do that, because many of the systematic processes.
都是在专业交易中使用和学习过的 大师班系列视频 That are used and have been learned in the professional trading, master class video series.
可以具体应用于外汇市场 这就是我们在这里要做的 我们要 Can actually be applied specifically to the forex markets, so that's what we're actually going to do here. We're going to take.
一个专业的商人 绝大多数人使用的系统过程 A professional trader. Systematic processes that were used by the vast majority.
专业交易员 对冲基金和投资银行 并将这些系统流程专门应用于外汇市场 Of professional traders, hedge funds and investment banks, and apply those systematic processes specifically to the forex market.
现在有很多噪音 Now there's a lot of noise.
有很多错误的信息 A lot of misinformation.
在这四个X市场中 可能在这四个X市场中 比任何其他资产类别或其他市场都要多 In the four X markets, and probably in the four X markets, more so than any other asset class or any other market out there.
这是有具体原因的 And there's specific reasons why this is the case.
这是因为外汇市场的交易量非常大 It's because the forex market is very heavily traded.
很多有利益冲突的人走出去要么推动人们朝着这个方向前进 And a lot of people with conflict of interest go out there and either push people in the direction.
做错误的事情 或者他们为了得到报酬而提供大量错误信息 To do the wrong thing, or they give a lot of misinformation in order for them to get paid.
嗯 Um,
我们要做的完全相反 We're going to completely do the opposite.
我们这样做的原因是因为我们是专业交易员 我们从不落后于性别 除了教你如何正确地做这件事 And the reason why we're doing that is because we are professional traders and we have never gender behind, except to teach you how to do this properly.
随着课程的深入 你们会看到 So as we go through the course, you're going to see.
很多东西对你来说可能都是新的 A lot of things that might even be new to you.
这是一件很棒的事情 因为你读过蝾螈 你以前从来没有在森林市场看到过任何东西 Which is a great thing, because you read the Newtorphorex, and you've never seen anything in the forest market before.
这是一个很好的开始 或者你作为一个零售交易员在外汇市场已经有很长时间了 And this is a great place to start, or you've been around the forex market a long time as a retail trader.
也许你的成功有限 甚至赔了钱 没能赚到钱 或者只是赔了很多钱 And maybe you've had limited success or even lost money, failed to fail to make, or just lost a lot of money.
和 And.
你不是一个人 有 You're not alone. There has.
在森林市场 在零售森林市场 有很多人在战斗中赔钱 There's a lot of people in the forest market, in the retail forest market that lose money in fight.
绝大多数公司确实亏损 The vast majority do lose money.
有一些非常具体的原因我们会在课程中讨论这些问题 但没什么好难过的 因为 And there's some very specific reasons why we'll be looking at those inside the course, but it's nothing to feel bad about, because.
在零售外汇交易市场上有很多错误信息和利益冲突 实际上很难避免 好吧 There's a lot of misinformation and conflict of interest in the retail forex trading market, and it's very difficult to actually avoid it. Well,
只要在这里 现在 你已经开始避免了 Just by being here. Now, you've already started to avoid it.
我可以向你保证 我们将采取专业交易员的方法 我们将帮助你持续盈利 I can assure you that we're going to be taking the professional trader approach, and we're going to be helping you to become consistently profitable.
在我们真正开始构建这些大型的 有时是复杂的 系统的过程之前 Before we actually go into building out these large and sometimes complex, systematic processes.
我们要做的就是打好基础 What we're actually going to do is lay a foundation.
和 And.
在本系列视频的第一部分中 你希望实现的是让自己真正牢固地理解 What you're hoping to achieve in the first part of this video series is to actually get yourself a really solid understanding.
建立一个基础 And build a foundation.
了解外汇市场的基础 In understanding the underpinnings of the forex market.
我们首先要关注的是货币的定义 The first thing we're actually going to focus on is the definitions of currencies.
你会发现有一些被广泛接受的经典理论 What you're going to find is is that there's some widespread kind of classically accepted.
外汇的定义 这些定义往往是重点 Definitions of forex, and these definitions tend to focus.
人们所关注的货币的经济规模 On the size of the economies of the currencies that people look at.
在第一个视频中 我们将看看这些经典的定义 我们将把它们和真正的专业交易员做比较 In video one, we're going to look at these classically accepted definitions, and we're actually going to compare them to what real professional traders do.
例如 你可能会发现 So what you might find is, for example,
当你作为一个零售交易员进入外汇市场时 每个人都用特定的方式定义或分组货币 When you go into the forex market as a retail trader is that everybody defines or groups currencies in certain ways.
这是完全错误的 的方式 It's actually completely wrong. The way.
专业培训师的做法是 他们根据机会对货币进行分类 而机会来自于波动性 Professional trainers do it is they group currencies in terms of opportunity, and opportunity comes from the volatility.
有了我们的进一步操作 我们开始吧 我们来看第一个视频 So with our further and do, let's get started, let's go over to video number one.
将着眼于货币的定义并开始构建这个基础 Will look at the definitions of currencies and start to build out this foundation.
一旦我们建立了这个基础 Once we built this foundation,
这样你就会对外汇市场的所有基本知识有一个正确的了解 Then you'll have a proper understanding of all the basics of the forex market.
因此 您将能够转移到更复杂的系统过程 Therefore, you'll be able to move on to the more complex, systematic processes.
我们在电脑屏幕上再见 在这个视频的最后我们再来回顾一下 So I'll see you on the computer screen, and I'll also see you at the end of this video for a recap.
好了 欢迎来到电脑屏幕 我们要做的第一件事 Okay, so welcome to the computer screen. The first thing we're going to do.
我们来看看PFT的整体结构和课程本身 We're going to take a look at the overall structure of the PFT and course itself.
这只是给你们一个概念 让你们知道我们从哪里开始 从哪里开始 我们来求极值 This is just to give you an idea of where we're beginning and where we're going with this. And so let's maximize.
把演示放到屏幕上 The presentation onto the screen.
当我们讲到PTM的时候你会发现 And really the PTM, what you're going to find as we go through this.
是这个视频系列真的是 Is the video series is really.
微观经济学和国际贸易的主要课程 A major lesson in microeconomics and international trade.
这也是交易和投资组合管理的一课 As much as it is a lesson in trading and portfolio management.
这要归功于专业的交易者 我们将要经历的系统过程 And this is really due to the professional trader, systematic processes that we're going to go through.
以获得货币头寸 In order to obtain currency positions.
我们要发现的是 And what we're going to find is that actually.
专业的方法在很大程度上是由基础驱动的 The professional approach is very much in the majority, driven by fundamentals.
所以基本上来说 80%是基本面因素 20%是技术因素 So the split really is roughly speaking, about 80% fundamental and 20% technical.
以及我们将要看到的那些基本情况 And those fundamental situations that we're going to be looking at.
就是我们所说的司机 所以基本驱动程序 Really are what we call drivers. So fundamental, drivers.
在宏观经济和国际贸易方面 In macroeconomics and international trade.
为我们产生高质量的交易想法 然后我们使用少数技术人员 That generate for us high quality trading ideas. And then we're using technicals in the minority.
来覆盖我们的基本分析 To overlay our fundamental analysis.
如果你走进一家投资银行的交易大厅或者走进一家对冲基金 And it's very much the case, that if you walk onto an investment bank trading floor or walk into a hedge fund.
你会发现这个分割是存在的 80%的专业交易员做的事情 That you'll find roughly that this split exists, that 80% of everything professional traders do.
货币市场是由微观经济基本面驱动的 In the currency markets is driven by microeconomic fundamentals.
说真的 任何告诉你的人 And really, anybody that tells you.
但事实并非如此 这可能与你自己的目标有利益冲突 也就是真正学习 That this is not the case, is like, and probably has a conflict of interest with your own objectives, which is to really learn.
如何使用你自己的钱在你的一生中从货币市场持续赚钱 How to use your own money to make consistent money over your lifetime from the currency markets.
基本面驱动 微观基本面驱动 Fundamentals, micro fundamentals drive.
外汇交易中的创意产生 对于专业交易员来说 与任何其他资产类别一样多 甚至更多 Idea generation in currency trading, as much as any other asset class for professional traders, if not more So.
现在我们要讲的是一个系统的过程 Now the process that we're going to go through, the systematic process.
真的 是靠创意产生的 Really, uh, is anchored to idea generation.
这是由宏观因素驱动的 That's driven by all things macro.
正如我们已经指出的 这是基本的 Fundamental, as we've already pointed out.
但随之而来的是我们所说的把关过程 But it's then followed by what we call a gatekeeping process.
其中包括产生高质量的无手表I-E Which consists of generating high quality watchless I-E.
高质量的贸易想法 产生高质量的观察名单 High quality trade ideas that generate high quality watch list.
然后叠加技术和价格行动指标 把关过程本质上是 And then overlaid with technical and price action indicators. The gatekeeping process is essentially.
我们用来计时和阻止我们做的事 What we use for timing and stopping us doing.
用我们自己的资本做蠢事 所以创意 Stupid things with our own capital. So idea generation.
在大多数情况下 基本上是受驱动的 In the majority, fundamentally driven.
然后是一个过程 我们停止自己用自己的资本做愚蠢的事情 Then followed by a process by which we stop ourselves doing silly things with our own capital.
把关过程包括观察表 技术和价格走势叠加 And the gatekeeping process, consisting of watch list, technical and price action overlays.
守门过程通常是一种计时机制 因此基本原理之后是计时 The gatekeeping process is generally speaking a timing mechanism, so fundamentals followed by timing.
然后我们有专业的风险管理和自我意识统计 Then we have professional trade of risk management and self awareness statistics.
如果你听说过全球宏观交易策略或者听说过 Now if you've ever heard of the trading strategy Global Macro or heard of, for example,
全球宏观对冲基金经理 这就是这门课要教给你们的 Global macro hedge fund managers. This is what the course is going to teach you.
它将教会你这种方法 以及如何在你的零售培训账户中实施这种方法 It's going to teach you exactly this approach, and exactly how to implement the approach in your retail training accounts.
当你走进投资银行交易大厅或对冲基金大厅时 Whenever you walk on to an investment bank trading floor or a hedge fund floor.
投资银行的经营者和对冲基金经理 The proprietor traders at investment banks and the hedge fund managers.
如果他们的使命是全球性的 宏观的 那么这正是他们所采取的方法 If their remit is global, macro, then this is exactly the approach that they take.
总的来说 这门课80%是由基础驱动的 20%是技术性的 So overall, the course is 80% fundamentally driven, 20% technical.
为了用真正的钱建立真正的头寸 我们经历了几个步骤 这是宏观的 And we go through several steps in order to take real positions with real money, that being macro.
基本驱动的想法产生 Fundamentally driven idea generation.
把关过程 风险管理过程 和自我意识 A gatekeeping process, a risk management process. And self awareness.
所以 So.
让我们开始整个过程 让我们把真正的目标放在这里 真正的目标在这里 Let's start the whole process, and let's lay out the real objective here, the real objective here.
是为X交易员提供零售 所以你们 Is to provide retail for X traders. So you guys.
用一个 With a.
以专业交易员和对冲基金经理的方式预测未来汇率走势的系统方法 Systematic approach to predicting future currency moves in the same way that professional traders and hedge fund managers do So.
所以你可以执行完全相同的方法 并在你的一生中不断地从中赚钱 So you can implement exactly the same approach and make consistent money from it over your lifetime.
现在 Now.
系统的方法从产生想法开始 The systematic approach starts with idea generation.
但实际上 在零售贸易环境中 人们在理解和知识方面存在巨大的不足 But there is actually a huge shortfall in understanding and knowledge in the retail trader environment.
而不是外汇市场本身的专业交易环境 Verses the professional trading environment in currency markets themselves.
我们首先要做的就是填补这个缺口 我们需要基本了解 And what we have to do first is actually plug that gap. We need to basically understand the.
特点 Idiosyncrasies.
所以我们对货币市场有一个基本的了解和基础 Of the currency market, so we have a fundamental understanding and foundation of what currency markets are all about.
没有哪两种资产类别是完全相同的 And no two asset classes are exactly the same.
货币市场有不同的特性和细节 Currency markets have different idiosyncrasies and details to them.
不同于股票市场 商品市场和债券市场 That differ from stock markets, commodity markets and bond markets.
我们必须学习 我们必须学习这些东西 所以我们有了基础来建造 That we just have to learn, we have to learn these things. So we have the foundation in order to build.
一个真实的 系统的过程 除此之外 A real, systematic process. On top of that.
一旦我们理解了所有这些东西 我们就可以着手建立一个系统的过程 Once we understand all of this stuff, we can, we can really then move on to building a systematic process.
否则 如果我们没有这个基础 我们可能会发现自己在与这些癖好作斗争 Otherwise, if we don't have this foundation, we could find ourselves struggling with these idiosyncrasies.
等我们以后建立一个系统程序的时候 所以我们要做的就是解决这些问题 Uh, when we build out a systematic process later on. So what we have to do is get all of this out of the way.
确保每个人都看过这个视频系列 And make sure that everyone going through the video series.
当零售交易者有了这个基础并了解了四个X市场的特性 As retail traders get this foundation and understanding of the idiosyncrasies of four X markets.
所以我们要做的是在以下领域打下基础 视频一 我们要 So what we have to do is get a foundation in the following areas, in video, one, we're going to.
看看第一个外汇市场基础领域 Look at the first Forex Market Foundation area.
这就是机会 什么是好的机会设置 And this is the opportunity set. What is the opportunity set well?
所有的交易者 无论是在货币市场 股票市场 商品市场还是债券市场 All traders, whether it's in the currency markets, stock markets, commodity or bond markets.
所有的交易者都是波动的奴隶 All traders are really slaves to volatility.
我们要做的是定义我们的机会可以是什么 不能是什么 And what we had to do is define what our opportunities can and can't be.
所以我们要去货币市场看看 So we're going to go into the currency markets and look at.
世界上大部分的主要和次要的洋流实际上定义了我们如何看待 Most of the major and minor current Sepez across the world And actually define how we'd look at.
正确的机会 我们要做的第二件事 The opportunities properly. The second thing we're going to do.
在第二段视频中 我们来看看4x市场机制 In video number two is look at four X. Market regimes.
不同的货币有不同的制度 我们必须对它们进行定义并真正理解它们 这对我们很有帮助 There's different regimes across different currencies, and we have to actually define these and really understand them. This actually helps us and ties in.
对于定义我们的机会集非常有用 所以我们必须理解四个x市场制度之间的区别 Very usefully with defining our opportunity set. So we have to understand the differences between four x, market regimes.
我们要考虑的第三件事是x 市场基础设施 The third thing we have to look at is for x, market infrastructure.
在基础设施方面 我们需要了解的是我们在四个鸡蛋市场中所涉及的参数 In terms of infrastructure, what we have to understand is are parameters that we're dealing with within the four eggs market itself?
那么外汇市场的参与者是谁我们在外汇市场上是如何交易的 So who are the players in the forex market How do we actually deal in the forex market.
什么是根本驱动的 什么是推测性的 我们必须理解我们正在处理的参数以及这些参数的局限性 What is fundamentally driven, what is speculative We have to understand the parameters that we're dealing with and the limitations of those parameters.
如果我们学习了这些东西 我们就可以学习 And if we learn this stuff, we can learn, therefore,
不要做一些愚蠢的事情 然后在这些参数范围内成功地操作 在一生中赚钱 Not to do silly things and then operate within these parameters successfully and make consist of money over a lifetime.
在第四节视频中 我们将继续学习一些基本的计算方法 有很多 In video number four, we're going to move on to some basic computational methods, so there's a lot of.
算术 通常在交易中 但在货币市场中 它们是我们必须掌握的具体算术 Arithmetic, generally in trading, but in the currency markets, they're specific arithmetic that we have to get a handle on.
我们必须了解如何去做这些事情 所以它们就会成为我们的第二天性 所以当我们开始建立系统过程时 We have to understand how to do those things, so they just come to us as second nature. So when we start building out systematic processes.
我们可以看一些东西 然后非常非常快地算出来 理解这些数字背后的含义 所以 We can look at something and work it out very, very quickly and understand what's happening behind the numbers. So.
我们将学习一些基本的计算方法 一旦我们理解了这些方法 就会永远留在你的脑海里 We're going to look at some basic computational methods that once we understand should be in your psyche for forever.
你应该能够非常迅速地做出反应 And you should be able to react very quickly.
非常简单 直线 线性的数学 并在你的余生中很快地解决问题 所以 To very simple, straight, linear mathematics and work things out very quickly for the rest of your life. So.
然后我们看视频 第五和第六节 接下来是更高级的计算方法 Then we move on to video, five and six, which is then moving on to more advanced computational methods.
克里斯多夫·奎尔是研究所的统计分析师 他会带你了解情况 And Christopher Quill, who's the Institute's statistics analyst, is going to take you through.
一些非常高级的计算方法 并训练你使用Excel Some pretty advanced computational methods and train you on Excel.
在观察和理解方面 Uh, in terms of looking and understanding.
波动性 所以我们会看并理解如何看和得到 Volatility, so we'll be looking at and understanding how to look and get.
潜在的交易想法来自波动 所以我们将着眼于机会和风险 Potential trade ideas from volatility, so we'll be looking at opportunity and risk.
通过评估外汇市场的波动性 By assessing volatility in the forex market.
全面理解这一点非常重要 我们要做什么 And it's very important to understand that overall, what we're trying to do here.
因为预告片总是在寻找不稳定的机会 而显然机会也伴随着一些风险 As trailers is always seek out volatile opportunities, and obviously opportunities bring with them some sort of risk.
作为交易者 我们需要接受风险 因为没有风险就没有机会 和 And as traders, we need to embrace risk, because you can't have opportunity without risk. And.
作为一个专业交易员 你需要做什么 As a professional trader, what you need to be doing.
就是制定出最系统和最基本的流程 Is working out the most systematic and basic processes.
理解如何捕获波动性 克里斯·库尔将带你了解所有这些 事情确实很复杂 但是 To understand how to capture that volatility. So Chris Cool is going to take you through all of that, and things do get pretty advanced, but.
一旦你了解了这些 你就会感激你 因为在你的余生中 你就可以下载数据了 Once you're up to speed and you understand that stuff, it's going to be grateful, you, because over the rest of your life, you'll be able to download data.
然后经历这些过程 And go through these processes.
并且能够非常 非常迅速地了解是否存在潜在的机会或风险 或者两者兼而有之 And be able to very, very quickly understand whether there's opportunities or risk, or both, potentially.
并且能够评估他们是否有能力获得能够支付你薪水的职位 Uh, and be able to assess whether there's the ability to have positions that are going to pay you.
所以 So.
让我们从第一个视频开始吧 一旦我们看完前六个视频 Let's kick it all off with video number one. And once we go through the first six videos.
然后 我们可以继续 因为我们有了这个基础 然后我们可以继续系统地建设 Uh, then, we can actually move on, because we will have got this foundation, then we can actually move on to building out systematic.
我们从产生想法开始 然后到守门 Processes which we start on idea generation, then moving on to gate keeping.
接下来是风险管理 Then moving onto risk management.
和自我意识统计 所以我们要做的第一件事就是打好基础 And self awareness statistics. So the first thing we do is build this foundation and.
一旦你的基础牢固了 我们就会进入系统的过程 让我们从第一个视频开始 的机会 Once your foundation is strong, then we'll move on to the systematic process, so let's start with video number one. The opportunity set.
好的 让我们开始构建或理解 OK, so let's get started with building out or understanding.
外汇市场的基础 Of the underpinnings of the forex market.
让我们 And let's.
试着建立一个真正坚实的基础和对货币市场的理解 所以 Try to establish a really solid foundation and understanding of the currency markets. So.
我们首先要看的是 The first thing we're gonna have a look at here is.
我们将试图了解这四个X市场的基本情况 We're going to try to understand what the four X markets are all about in their basics.
你会发现什么 And what you're gonna find.
是不是外汇市场有很多 呃 所谓的噪音 Is that there's a lot of, uh, what we call noise in the forex market?
可能比其他任何资产都要多加上噪音是什么意思 我们的意思是 More so than probably any other asset plus what What do we mean by the noise? Well, what we mean.
基本上就是参与者 所以在外汇市场的公司和个人 Is basically the participants. So companies and people within the forex market that have.
你的目标是用自己的钱赚钱 这与你的目标有内在的利益冲突 Inherent conflicts of interest to your own objective, which is to make money using your own money.
这些参与者让噪音永久化 And these participants that perpetuate the noise really.
他们把你的注意力从你的目标上转移开 以获得报酬 They divert your attention away from your objective in order to get themselves paid.
你会发现外汇市场上有很多经纪人和专业人士 And what you're going to find is a lot of brokers and educates in the forex market.
它们在外汇市场和其他资产类别没有什么不同 事实上 它们可能比其他资产类别更糟糕 They're no different in the forex market than any other asset class. In fact, they're probably even worse than in other asset classes.
一旦你开始真正理解 And once you start really understanding.
他们的目标是什么 他们与你的目标是如何相悖的 What their objectives are and how they counterintuitive to your own objectives?
和 And.
你将开始了解外汇市场的零售交易的真正基础是什么 You're going to begin to understand what the true underpinnings of the retail trade of forex markets actually up.
这样你就能排除所有这些噪音和废话 这些板块和它们的继承复杂的兴趣 And you'll be able to cut through all of this noise and the BS, perpetuated by these plates with their inherit complex of interest.
我们的意思是 What do we mean by.
利益冲突 或者我们的意思是 实际上是人们和公司得到了报酬 The conflict of interest, or what we mean is actually the people and companies that get paid.
基于交易量 他们根据特定市场的交易量获得佣金 On a volume basis, so they get paid a commission based on the amount of volume that trades in a particular market.
一旦你理解了利益冲突是如何与你自己的目标相冲突的 你就会理解并知道两者之间的区别 So once you understand how this conflict of interest is against all of your own objectives, you're going to understand and know the difference between.
市场中什么是对的 什么是错的 这真的能帮助你避免所有的小额外汇交易错误吗 What is probably true and what is false in the markets, and that's going to really help you to avoid all of the retail forex trade mistakes?
它会阻止你赔钱 所以成为我们所说的1990年的一部分 And it's going to stop you losing money, so becoming part of what we call the nineteen nineteen ninety.
外汇市场占零售市场的90% 外汇交易员在90天内损失90%的资金 In the forex markets, which is 90% of retail, forex traders lose 90% of their money within ninety days.
它会保护你的弱点 And it's going to protect your downside.
我们在研究所经常讨论1990现象 And the nineteen nineteen ninety phenomenon is something that we talk about a lot in the Institute.
对于绝大多数的散户交易员来说 他们实际上在很短的时间内损失了大部分资金 The vast majority of retail, for its traders, actually lose most of all of their money in a very short space of time.
这是绝对正确的 And it's absolutely 100% true.
我们研究所有很多统计数据 We have a lot of statistics in the institute that we look at.
我们在外汇市场看到了28万个账户的交易 And we've seen the 280 thousand trade in accounts in the forex market.
呃 在零售florex市场 在所有的零售经纪平台 Uh, in the retail florex market, across all the retail brokerage platforms.
90%的账户加上超过90%的账户实际上已经完成了 他们损失了几乎所有的钱 And 90% of these accounts plus over 90% are actually done. They lose pretty much all of their money.
在很短的时间内 Uh, in a very short space of time,
一旦你开始理解为什么这将帮助你保护你的下行 其中一个原因是有很多噪音 And once you start understanding the reasons why this is going to help you protect your downside, one of the reasons is that there's a lot of noise.
作为专业交易员 And as professional traders,
我们一直试图做的是在任何市场中寻找 我们寻找波动性 What we try to do all the time is to seek out in any market, we seek out volatility.
一旦我们开始研究X市场是如何组织的 And once we start actually looking at how the four X market is organized.
一旦我们开始观察我们如何组织世界货币市场 So once we start looking at how we organize the world's currency markets versus how.
利益冲突的参与者 The participants with conflict of interest.
组织了世界货币市场 我们开始看到这些 Actually organized the world's currency markets. We start to see that these.
这些 这个组织和货币的定义实际上是不同的 These, this organization and the definitions of currencies are actually different.
我们自己的 举个例子 我们首先看的是 To our own. And the first thing we look at, for example,
经纪人和投资银行是如何定义货币的 Is how brokers and investment banks actually define currencies.
因为我们想做的是开始组织 Because what we want to do is start organizing.
以专业的交易方式 真正关注波动性 In a professional traderway and really focus on volatility.
当我们 当我们看流行媒体的方式 And when we s, when we look at the way the popular media.
所以这是所有噪音的出口 所以我们谈论电视 报纸和网络媒体 So this is the outlet for all the noise, so we're talking about television, newspapers and online media.
当我们看到出路 媒体 When we look at the way, the outlet, the media,
组织和构建货币的定义 我们意识到它们与波动率分析是非常不同的 Organize and structure the definitions of currencies. We realize that they're very different to a volatility analysis.
所以 So.
你可能会想 为什么我们要看投资银行的定义 投资银行实际上是机构经纪商 You might think here, for example, why are we looking at investment bank definitions? Well, investment banks are are really institutional brokers.
他们与对冲基金和养老基金有业务往来 主要是在二级市场 They do business with hedge funds and pension funds, mainly on the secondary market side, and.
在四个前市场 In the four ex markets.
它们的客户 对冲基金和养老基金 通过投资银行进行货币交易 并支付差价或佣金 Their clients, the hedge funds and the pension funds, trade currencies via the investment bank and pay a spread or commission.
他们支付了所有货币的差价 他们踩的梨 They paid the spread on all of the currency, pears that they tread.
投资银行只是一个机构场所 And investment banks are simply just the institutional site of.
零售经纪商 Retail brokers.
本质上 他们只是机构经纪商 做市商 他们也有自营交易业务 So essentially, they're just institutional brokers, their market makers. They also do have proprietary trading operations.
而真正令人惊讶的是 And what's actually quite surprising.
投资银行的自营交易业务将采取与我们相同的方式 Is that the proprietary trading operations in investment banks would take the same approach that we take.
这与投行做市的做法不同 Which is different to the approach that the market making side of the investment bank would take.
在定义货币以及投资银行和零售经纪商定义货币的方式方面 In defining currencies and the way currencies are defined at investment banks and retail brokers.
嗯 Um, the way.
这些 这些人定义货币的方式 These, the way these guys define currencies.
是非常违反直觉的 出现 Is very much counterintuitive. To.
一个专业的交易者 目标是用自己的钱赚钱 你会发现 A professional trader, objective, which is to make money using your own money. So what you're going to find.
对于投资银行 我们告诉破坏者和媒体 With investment banks, we tell breakers and media.
是货币 Is that currencies.
将在很大程度上分组 取决于货币的规模 Will be grouped very much, dependence on the size of the currency.
我们所说的货币的大小是什么意思 每天的交易量 最流行的货币 第一个定义 你会看到 What do we mean by the size of the currency, the amount of volume that trades per day, the most popular currencies So the first definition, you're going to see.
是G 10 十国集团 以及我们在这里得到的 Is the G, ten, the group of ten currencies. And what we've got here.
是十国集团的经典定义 即美国 欧元 日元 Is the classic definition of G. Ten, which is the US, dolly Euro, japanese yen.
英镑 瑞士法郎 澳元 新西兰元 加拿大元 瑞典trainer和挪威克朗 British pound, swiss franc, australian dollar, new Zealand dollar, canadian dollar, swedish trainer and Norwegian Crona.
你会注意到这里我们有 让我们看看旁边的四种货币 And you're going to notice here that we've got the, let us see next to four of our currencies.
例如 字母C与澳元相邻 而字母C实际上代表商品 So the letter C, for example, is next to Australian dollar, and the letter C actually stands for commodities.
我们之所以把这些标上旁边的字母是因为 The reason why we've marked these up with a letter seen next to them is because.
我们的目标是找出什么具有最大的潜在波动率 什么具有最小的潜在波动率 Our objective is to figure out what has the most potential volatility, what has the least potential volatility?
我们想知道这些商品 这些货币价值 实际上取决于什么 我们在这里做了标记 And we want to know what these commodity, but these currency values, actually depend on. So what we've done is we've marked here.
G里面的货币是10 Uh, the currencies within the G, ten.
我们用A-C标记它们 因为它们代表货币的价值 We've marked them with A-C because they're the value of their currency.
是依赖的 或非常依赖的 Is dependent, or very heavily dependent on.
国际商品价格 只是一两种特定的商品 The price of international commodities. So just one or two particular commodities.
这些不同 例如 美元 欧元 日元 英镑 瑞士银行 And these differ, for example, from the US dollar, euro, yen pound, swiss Bank.
瑞典人长大了 他们略有不同 因为 Swedish grown up, they differ slightly because.
其他货币并不仅仅依赖于一两种货币 The other currencies don't depend solely on one or two.
因此 它们的货币价格不太依赖大宗商品 Commodities, so the prices of their currencies don't depend heavily.
一两个出口商品的价格 On the price of one or two of their exports.
而更大的货币 美元 欧元 日元 英镑 瑞士法郎 瑞典法郎 都长大了 And the bigger currencies, the US dollar, euro, japanese yen pounds, swiss franc, swedish, grown up.
这些货币不依赖于一两种商品 它们的出口更加多样化 These currencies that don't depend on the one or two commodities, those currencies are more diverse in their exports.
当你思考这个问题时 如果 And when you think about this, if.
一种货币价值严重依赖于一种或两种商品 而另一种商品的出口差异很大 A currency value is heavily dependent on one or two commodities relative to another that is very diverse in its exports.
很明显更有可能 It's pretty obvious that it's more likely that.
商品货币 The commodity currency.
将会是 Is going to be.
可能更不稳定 因为它只取决于一个或两个因素 而不是多种因素 Potentially more volatile, because it depends on just one or two factors, rather than a multitude of factors.
我们先用A-C标记 投资银行会分组 So we mark these up with A-C to begin with, investment banks will group.
所有货币加起来为G 10 零售经纪人也是如此 All currencies together as G. Ten. So will retail brokers.
这基本上是把你的注意力从真正重要的东西上转移开 那就是波动性 他们想把所有人归为一个篮子 And that's basically to divert your attention away from what really matters, which is volatility. They're trying to group them all as one basket.
只取决于森林市场每天交易的规模 Dependent just soling on the size of the transactions that occur every day in the forest markets.
另一种定义 The other definition.
我们关注的投资银行 零售经纪商都是新兴货币 That we look at with investment banks, retail brokers is in emerging currencies.
所以我们在这里讨论的是经济规模小但增长速度快的国家 So we're talking about countries here that whose economies are small and growing at a high rate or.
应该以高速度增长 它们被定义为新兴货币 新兴市场货币 Should be growing at a high rate, and they're defined as emerging currencies. Emerging currencies.
通常在投资银行的定义中 零售经纪人的定义被划分为EMA Typically within investment bank definitions, retail broker definitions are split up into EMA.
欧洲 中东和非洲 So Europe, middle East and Africa.
海湾 海湾合作委员会 G-C-C 下一页是亚洲 Gulf, so Gulf Cooperation Council, G-C-C, and also on the next page, asia.
你在这里看到的是我们又做了标记 And what you see here is that we've marked up again.
一堆这些货币 A bunch of these currencies.
因为它们严重依赖于一两种商品的价格 所以 With a lettacy, because they're dependent very heavily on just one or two commodity prices. So.
他们的货币价值很大程度上取决于一两种商品 The value of their currency depends very heavily on one or two commodities.
因为他们的专家占了很大的比例 在右手边 Because it's a very big proportion of their experts, and over here on the right hand side.
我们有G-C-C 还有G-C-C的货币 所有的中东货币 你可以看到 We've got the G-C-C, and with the G-C-C currencies, all the Middle East currencies, you can see.
它们都依赖于一两种商品 你还可以看到 我们用A-P标记了它们 That they are all dependent on one or two commodities, and you can also see, we've marked them up with A-P.
piece代表peg The piece stands for peg.
这是一个fourex制度 我们将在第二节中更仔细地研究四个X域 但是 And this is a fourex regime. We're going to look more closely at four X regimes in video number two, but.
现在 我们只需要知道有两种主要的 四种前任政权 For now, we just need to know that there's two main, four ex regimes.
第一种是浮动汇率制度 一个国家的货币 The first one is a floating regime where a country's currency.
有能力对世界上所有其他货币自由浮动 Has the ability to float freely against all other currencies in the world.
第二个主要机制是固定的或挂钩的机制 货币的价值 And the second main regime is a fixed or pegged regime, where the value of a currency.
是固定的或与另一个人的价值挂钩的 Is fixed or peged to the value of Another.
或者通常是一篮子其他货币 Or to a basket of other currencies, usually.
篮子是由主要贸易伙伴组成的国家出口市场 所以 The basket is made up of the main trading partners of the country's export market. So.
我们应该直觉地知道 在中东 我们将要关注的商品 呃 是石油 We should know, intuitively that in the Middle East, the commodity we're going to be looking at, uh, is the oil.
价格 所以 Price. So.
中东的石油出口 但我们也要意识到我们所有的中东人 Oil exports of the Middle East, but we also have to be aware that all of our Middle Eastern.
某种程度上 货币与另一种货币或贸易伙伴的一篮子货币挂钩 Currencies are in some way peged to another currency, or a basket of currencies of their trading partners.
再说一次 我们这么做是因为我们知道作为专业交易员 这无关紧要 Again, we're doing this because we know as professional traders that it doesn't matter.
一个国家有多大 货币就有多大 这是真的 How big a country is, how big a currency is. It's really.
真正重要的是资产本身的波动性 所以当我们进入亚洲 What what matters is really the volatility of the asset itself. So when we move into Asia.
我们看到 我们又有一份很大的名单 We see that, uh, we have A-A large list, again.
亚洲新兴货币 很多人都有 Of emerging currencies in Asia. And a whole bunch of them have got.
对商品的依赖 我们也有一些 Dependency on commodities, and we also have a few of them.
你用人民币兑换了港币和新加坡元 So the Chinese you won for Hong Kong dollar and the Singapore dollar.
这些国家的货币实行与海湾合作委员会类似的挂钩制度 These currencies are pegged regimes similar to GCC.
纸上的制度确实有不同的细微差别 我们会在第二集视频中更详细地讲解 And paper regimes have do have different nuances. We're going to look at those in more detail in video number two.
当我们谈到新兴货币时 When we go into UH, emerging currencies.
在拉丁美洲 我们可以看到所有的拉丁美洲货币 In Latin America, we can see that all Latin American currencies.
对商品有某种依赖 Have some sort of dependency on commodities.
我们还注意到没有 And what we also notice is that there's no.
和平 Peace here.
在我们的字母旁边 停止 他们对商品的依赖 但他们不是被选中的 他们实际上是浮动的 当你看这个列表的时候 Next to our letter, cease, so their commodity dependence, but they're not picked, they're actually floating. So when you go through the list here.
你会发现任何没有a-p的东西实际上都是浮动的 You'll be able to see that anything that doesn't have A-P is actually a floating regime.
任何有a-p的东西都是固定的 现在 And anything that does have A-P is a peged regime. Now.
作为专业的交易员 As professional traders.
我们已经提到或略过 作为专业交易员 对我们来说真正重要的是波动性 所以当我们定义 We've mentioned or briefly skimped over this that as professional traders, what really matters to us is volatility. So when we define.
货币 我们并不关心一个国家是不是G国 10国还是不是 我们为什么要关心 Currencies, we don't really care that a country is in the G, ten or not. Why would we care.
作为交易者 我们寻求的是形式性 As traders, what we're seeking out is formativity.
我想让你们想象 例如 一个时间范围 时间范围可以是任何一天 So I want you to imagine, for example, a time horizon, and the time horizon can be any day.
任何时间范围 可以是一天 一周 一个月 三个月 一年 Any time horizon at all, so it can be one day, one week, one month, three months, one year.
我想让你们想象任何资产 可以是货币 股票 And I want you to imagine just any asset, it can be currencies, stocks.
商品 债券 也可以是砖 所以砖块被用来建造房屋 Commodities, bonds, it can also be bricks. So bricks are used to build houses.
砖块在公开市场上有价格 Bricks have a price on the open market.
制造商 批发商 分销商 开发商 And manufacturers and wholesalers, distributors, developers.
他们在公开市场上买卖砖块 他们相互买卖砖块 They buy and sell bricks in the open markets, they buy and sell bricks with each other.
砖块和其他资产一样有价格 而且每种资产都有市场 Bricks have a price like any other asset, and every asset has a marketplace.
在任何给定的时间范围内 对交易这些资产的人来说 真正重要的是什么 And over any given time horizon, what really matters for the people trading these assets?
就是资产的波动性 Is the volatility of the assets.
举个例子 如果我们选择一天作为我们的时间范围 And if we just pick one day, for example, as our time horizon,
我们选择一种货币 And we pick a currency.
让我们随机选择一对货币 比如欧元和美元 So let's pick a random currency pair, for example, like the Euro, US dollar.
然后说 好吧 在一天之内我们要买卖欧元美元 And say, okay, over one day we're going to buy and sell this currency, the Euro Dollar Over.
总有一天 我们会把它交易十次 One day, we're going to trade it ten times, and.
我们将观察欧元美元的每日波动 We're going to look at the daily volatility of euro dollar.
我们假设 我们发现欧元美元在24小时内没有变动 And what we let's say, we find that the Euro dollar over a twenty four hour period just doesn't move.
这意味着当我们买卖它的时候 我们以同样的价格买进卖出 如果它不动 Well, it means that when we buy and sell it, we're buying in selling it at the same price. If it doesn't move.
如果我们付给经纪人佣金 And if we're paying a broker a commission,
每次交易的时候 传播 Every time we trade. So as spread.
这个价差很小 没关系 但理论上 24小时内价格是一样的 And it can be a very small spread, it doesn't really matter, but if in theory, the price is the same over a twenty four hour period.
我们买卖它十次 然后付钱 这意味着我们赚不到钱了 事实上 我们只会赔钱 And we buy and sell it ten times and pay to do so. It means that we're not going to make any money. In fact, we're just going to lose money.
然而 如果我们确实有波动性 那么就创造了机会和风险 However, if we do have volatility, then an opportunity and risk is created.
作为专业交易员 这才是我们关心的 我们不在乎 那是G技术的东西 我们不在乎它在拉丁美洲 As professional traders, that's what we care about, we don't care. That's something's in the G Tech, we don't care that it's in Latin America.
我们关心的是货币制度是什么 货币依赖于什么 What we care about is what the currencys regime is and what the currency is dependent on.
这是波动性的驱动因素 And this is a driver for volatility.
所以 So.
而不是按照G来组织和分割货币 而是按照地理位置和交易规模 Instead of organizing and segmenting currencies by G, by geography and transaction size.
在国内 我们根据潜在的机会来组织货币 At home, we organize currencies by the potential opportunity.
我们在第一步做这个的方法 还有后面的步骤我们会在这个视频系列的后面讲到 但是我们在第一步做这个的方法是 And the way we do this in the first step, and there are further steps that we go through later in the video series, but the way we do this in the first step is.
将其分成四大类 分别是ex commodity floating To segment into four main categories, which are ex, commodity, floating.
商品啄食 商品 浮动 商品啄食 X, commodity pecked, commodity, floating and commodity peck.
我们所做的是通过汇率制度和大宗商品敞口进行过滤 So what we're doing is is we're filtering here by currency regime and commodity exposure.
这里的EX 商品分组指的是不依赖于某一货币的货币 So the EX, commodity grouping here are currencies that are not dependent on one.
或者两种商品的出口 这些又分成浮动区域和付费区域 Or two commodities in their exports, and these split up into floating and paid regions.
然后我们有浮动和钉住的商品 这是分裂的国家 Then we have the commodity floating and pegs, which are countries that are split up.
通过或通过他们对一两种商品的依赖来过滤 然后通过他们的政权 By or filtered by their dependency on one or two commodities, and then by their regime.
如果你进入视频系列的下载部分 在视频1下面 你会看到一个下载按钮 And if you go into the download section of the video series, so under video number one, you'll see a download button.
你可以下载电子表格 它可以为你细分所有内容 You'll be able to download the spreadsheet, which segments everything for you.
如果你下载了那张图片 她可以看一看 And down, let if you download that spread, she have a look through it.
让自己熟悉一下 Just familiarize yourself with it.
因为熟悉这些定义是很重要的 因为我们在后面的视频中会讲到这些 Because it's important to start getting familiar with these definitions, because we build on these things later in the video series And.
四个X市场的组织表 我们在演示中有细分 The four X markets organized sheet, we have the, UH, we have the breakdown in the presentation.
所以如果你只是下载它 你可以在自己的时间熟悉它 So if you just download it, you can familiarize yourself with it in your own time.
回到这一点 更重要的是 So back to this point, what's more important is that.
我们需要开始寻找和理解我们如何捕捉和划分波动性 We need to start looking and understanding how we capture and segment volatility.
而不是按地域和交易规模细分 Rather than segmenting by geography and size of transactions,
我们采取的主要方式是浮动和盯住汇率制度 以及依赖大宗商品 Floating and pegged regimes and commodity dependency is the main way we do it.
你要开始思考的是国家 他们货币的价值 And what What you've got to start thinking about is how countries, the value of their currency.
一个国家的货币价值取决于外部因素 How a country s value of currency depends on factors outside.
国家本身 The country itself.
我们这里用的短语是外生因素 So the phrase we use here is exogenous factors.
所以外生因素是影响 So exogenous factors are factors that affect.
货币的价值 但它们不受国内中央政府的控制 The value of a currency, but they are outside the control of central authorities within the country.
例如 if So for example, if.
你是一个非常依赖世界另一端的一个贸易伙伴的国家 You're a country that depends very heavily on one trading partner on the other side of the world.
但是这个贸易伙伴在他们的经济中遇到了困难 But that trading partner has a difficult time in their economy.
这将对你的货币产生影响 That is going to have an effect on your currency.
作为一个国家 不管你喜不喜欢 这是一个外生因素影响你的货币价值 这是你无法控制的 As a country, whether you like it or not, it's an exogenous or exogenous factor that is affecting the value of your currency, it's out of your control.
这些对专业交易员来说非常重要 因为这是驱动因素之一 Now these are very important to professional traders, because this is one of the drivers.
的波动 这就是我们分割的原因 Of volatility. And that's why we segment.
按商品和制度划分 By commodity and by regime.
我会把我们的分解结果放在这里 从四个x 市场组织表 I would put the results here of our breakdown from the four x, market Organize sheet.
我们首先看的是EX 商品浮动 And the first thing we look at is the EX, commodity floating.
货币 我们发现 我们崩溃了 Currencies, and what we find is, is we break down.
节日 Festival.
发达的浮动是什么意思 我们的意思是 By developed float, so what do we mean by that We mean.
拥有不依赖大宗商品的浮动制度的发达经济体 Developed economies that have floating regimes that are not dependent on commodities.
然后是新兴市场 E 亚太地区的浮动货币 Then we have the EM, E, floating currencies that are excommodity, the Asia Pacific.
浮动的是商品和拉丁 你可以看到那里没有拉丁美洲 Floating that are excommodity and the Latin, you can see there's no Latin America, there.
下一个定义是大宗商品挂钩制度 The next definition is the ex, commodity peg regimes.
我们这里有丹麦 丹麦不在GT名单中 So we have the, UH, we have Denmark in here. Denmark's not in the GT.
但它是一个发达国家 是许多欧洲国家的重要贸易伙伴 我们已经把分析包括进去了 But it's a developed nation and is an important trading partner of many European nations. So we've included in the analysis.
所以开发 EX 商品涂料 丹麦长大了 这是支付给欧洲 So developed, EX, commodity paint, the Danish grown up, which is paid to the Europe.
我们也有亚洲 商品油漆 We also have Asia, ex, commodity paint.
在亚洲我们有港元 它是以美元支付的 And we have in Asia the Hong Kong dollar, which is paid to the US dollar.
还有新元 它和一篮子货币捆绑在一起 没有公开 And the Sing dollar, which is packed to a basket of currencies that are not made public.
在等待时间和等待时间的确切大小方面 这些等待时间相对于他们的贸易伙伴 In terms of the waitings and the exact sizes of those, those waitings relative to their trading partners.
在外汇市场 商品浮动 In the forex markets, commodity floating.
所以我们说的是有大宗商品风险敞口的浮动制度 So we're talking about floating regimes that have commodity exposure.
我们之前看到的下跌是GT的一部分 但我们不叫它们GTM 我们叫它们发达商品飞行 We have our fall that we looked at earlier that are part of the GT, but we don't call them GTM, we call them developed commodity flit.
我们有EMA商品浮动 We have our EMA commodity float.
是亚洲大宗商品浮动还是拉丁美洲大宗商品浮动 所有这些都是浮动制度 Are Asia commodity float and Latin America commodity float. So all of these are floating regimes.
有 That have.
它们的出口对一种或两种商品有很大的敞口 然后 Significant exposure in their exports to one or two commodities. And then.
我们的下一个机会是将商品挂钩 The next part of our opportunity set the commodity pegged.
我们分为EMA和亚洲 We break down as EMA and Asia.
Ema是指商品选择 亚洲商品选择 So Ema, a commodity picked, and Asia commodity picked.
我们这里有E-M-E-A 所有G-C-C国家 And we have here in E-M-E-A, all of the G-C-C countries.
也是唯一的亚洲人 And the only Asian.
在大宗商品方面有大量敞口的货币就是人民币 Currency that has significant exposure to commodities, and this packed is the Chinese Yuan.
在汉字旁边有个问号 你想要相似的 And we have the question mark here next to the Chinese. You want similar to.
同一美元旁边的问号 为什么 嗯 这是因为 The question mark next to the same dollar, why is that? Well, it's because.
货币PET的方式是不完全的 The way in which the currency is PET is not fully.
100%意识到或理解 以新加坡元为例 100% aware or understandable. So for example, with the Singapore dollar.
新加坡元是一篮子货币 There is a basket of currencies that the Singapore dollar.
是多少 Is.
等待 我们不知道这些货币是什么 我们也不知道等待是什么 Waited towards, we don't 100% know what those currencies are, and we don't 100% know what the waitings are.
这基本上是为了阻止对货币的投机 And that is essentially to stop speculation on the currency.
中国的汇率是与美元挂钩的 但我们称之为蠕动挂钩 The Chinese one is paid against the US dollar, but it's a what we call a crawling peg.
并不是固定在一个特定的速率上 In which it's not exactly fixed at a particular rate.
速率是变化的 所以还是有问题的 我们会在第二集视频中仔细研究这些 但现在 The rate changes, so it's questionable again, we'll look into these things properly in video number two, but for now,
我们只需要把这个原则写下来 We just need to get this principle down, which is.
我们必须开始细分 We have to start segmenting.
并根据它们的机会和风险 I-E 它们的波动性来定义货币 And defining currencies based on their opportunities and risk, I-E, their volatility.
通过这样做 我们创造了我们的机会 And by doing so, we create our opportunity set.
机会集基本上就是找出作为交易者赚钱的机会所在 The opportunity set is essentially working out where the opportunities lie to make money as traders.
总共有46种货币 So we've got forty six currencies in total.
其中36个是浮动的 10个是固定的 Razy政权 Thirty six of them are floating, and ten of them are pegged or fixed. Razy regimes.
这就限制了市场上36种货币的机会 So this potentially limited opportunities to thirty six currencies in the market.
因为模式是固定的 政权 Because the patterns are fixed. Regimes.
意味着货币价值由中央政府控制 Mean that the currency value is controlled by the central authorities.
在非常小的特定范围内 Within very tight specific ranges.
这是什么意思 中央当局自己干预货币市场 他们确保 What do we mean by that? Well, the central authorities themselves intervene in the currency markets, and they make sure.
他们的货币保持在一定的价值 That their currencies stay at a certain value.
就像我们之前说过的 资产价格保持不变 我们以欧元为例 Now as we talked about earlier, with asset prices staying at the same price, we use the euro dollar example.
如果资产价格保持不变 If an asset price stays at the same price.
持续在任何时间范围内 一天 一周 一个月 三个月 一年 我们买的是细胞 Constantly over any time horizon, so one day, one week, one month, three months, one year. And we buy in cell.
一直以同样的价格购买资产 我们根本赚不到钱 因为没有波动性 That asset at the same price all the time and pay to do so. We simply can't make money, because there is no volatility.
这与钉住汇率或固定汇率制度的情况相同 This is the same situation with peg or fixed regimes.
因为它们每天 每周 每月 每三个月 每年都保持相同的价格 Because they stay at the same price every day every week, every month, every three months every year.
因此 我们知道作为交易者 没有波动 也没有赚钱的机会 Therefore, we know as traders, there's no volatility and no opportunity to make money.
当然 除非中央政府决定不再继续干预外汇市场 Unless, of course, the central authorities decide not to continue intervening in the currency market.
但是作为交易者 我们不会在这里坐上5年 10年 20年 But as traders, we're not going to, for example, sit here for five, ten, twenty years.
手只是观察一种货币每天以相同的价格交易 等待一些事情发生 Hands just watch a currency every day trade at the same price, waiting for something to happen.
我们只需要分段 And we need to just segment.
通过波动性和机会 并在一致的基础上关注机会所在 By volatility and opportunities and focus on where the opportunities are on a consistent basis.
所以我们发现 在这36个潜在机会中 有17个 So what we find is, is that out of these thirty six potential opportunities, seventeen.
这些机会之一是浮动货币 即不以商品价格计算的浮动货币 Of these opportunities are floating currencies that are ex commodity, floating.
也就是它们的非大宗商品货币 这意味着这些国家的出口没有很大的敞口 So their non commodity currencies, meaning the countries don't have significant exposure in their exports.
一种或多种全球商品价格 To one or a multitude of global commodity prices.
19种浮动货币 19种机会 Nineteen of the floating currencies, nineteen of these opportunities.
也就是我们所说的大宗商品货币 因此这些国家的出口对一到两种大宗商品有很大的敞口 What we term as commodity currencies, so the countries have got significant exposure in their exports to one or two commodities.
我们还发现 What we also find.
这四种货币都有大量的大宗商品敞口 Is that four of the currencies have significant commodities exposure.
有这种风险敞口的是G 10种货币 所以G轮 定义为 So the ones that do have that exposure are G, ten currencies, so G, turn, as defined by.
投资银行和零售经纪人 所以他们很发达 他们是相当大的经济体 Investment banks and retail brokers, so they're, so, they're developed. They're quite large economies.
所有拉丁美洲的货币 都是浮动的 And all Latin currencies, latin America currencies, they're float, they're floating and.
还有拉丁美洲国家 There's, there's the Latin American countries.
没有哪个拉美国家没有大宗商品的重大风险敞口 There's not no Latin American countries that don't have significant exposure to commodities.
唯一的EMA国家 The only EMA countries.
有固定政权的是G-C-C国家 Uh, that have packed or fixed regimes are G-C-C countries.
我们还发现 丹麦是唯一一个实行钉住或固定制度的发达经济体 And we also find that Denmark is the only developed economy with a peg or fixed regime.
而DKK 丹麦角则挤满了欧洲 And the DKK, the Danish corner is packed to the Europe.
当我们以这种方式划分时 我们还注意到了哪些机遇 我们找到了 What else do we notice about our opportunities when we segment in this way? Well, we find that.
香港元和新加坡元是仅有的亚洲货币 The Hong Kong dollar and the Singapore dollar are the only Asian currencies.
没有大量的大宗商品敞口 所以他们非常多样化 Without significant, significant commodities exposure. So they're pretty diverse.
只有那些没有大量大宗商品敞口 实际上实行钉住或固定汇率制度的国家 The only ones that, without significant commodities exposure that actually have a peg or fixed regime.
中国人 你想要 The Chinese, you want.
是海湾合作委员会以外唯一一种有固定汇率制度的大宗商品 这就是钉住美元 Is the only commodity, exposed currency that has a peg or fixed regime outside the GCC. And that's peg to the US dollar.
辛美元和科威特迪纳是唯一的固定货币 And the sing dollar and the Kuwaiti Dina are the only ped or fixed regime currency.
这没有披露货币的等待情况 它们是固定的 That don't disclose the waitings of the currencies. They are peged or fixed.
这里我们有36种货币和36种潜在机会 So here we've got our thirty six currencies of thirty six potential opportunities and.
我们把它们都放在同一个页面上 所以你很容易看到 We put them all all on the same pages, so it's easy for you to view.
这里 我们有四个浮动的X市场 这实际上是非商品浮动的 所以我们定义的是 Uh, here, we've got four X markets floating, well, that's actually non commodity floating, so what we what we've defined as.
没有大量大宗商品敞口的浮动机制 Floating regimes that don't have significant exposure to commodities.
然后我们有四个鸡蛋 市场商品浮动 这是我们的36个机会 And then we have four eggs, markets commodity floating, so these are our thirty six opportunities.
这些都是我们不应该考虑的不稳定的机会 And these are the ones that we're going to basically have to not consider as volatile opportunities.
所以我们这里有以前的商品 包括丹麦成年人 So we have here the ex commodity pecked, which includes the Danish grown up.
港元和新加坡元 The Hong Kong dollar and the sing dollar.
和 And.
商品 挑选的商品 货币 所以这些是不会移动的 The commodity, the commodity picked, currencies. So these are the ones that are not going to move.
没有波动 或者说波动非常小 There's no volatility, or volatility is extremely small.
另一种方式 Another way in which uh.
利益冲突的参与者 外汇市场的参与者 货币 Participants, so conflict of interest, participants in the forex markets segment, currencies.
你会找到经纪人 投资银行 Is, you will find brokers, investment banks.
媒体渠道 电视 报纸 网络媒体 Media outlets, so television, newspapers, online media.
所有的报价都是相对于主要货币的 Everything tends to get quoted against the big currencies and.
通用的是对美元 因为美元是世界储备货币 所以 The generic one is against the US dollar, because the US dollar is the world's reserve currency. So.
你会发现 很多时候 所有的报价都是针对美元的 What you're going to find, a lot of the time, is everything is quoted against the US dollar or.
它反复对美元报价 所以或者默认的 所以 It's quoted repeatedly against the US dollar, so or by default, so.
通常对美元报价的货币交叉或对被称为美元交叉 The currency cross or pair that's generically quoted against the US dollar is called a dollar cross.
它可以是世界上任何一种货币 我们来看一看 比如俄罗斯卢布 And that can be any currency in the world, so let's have a look at one. Now the Russian Ruble, for example,
在我写这篇文章的时候 俄罗斯卢布是62卢布 1美元等于5卢布 At the time of writing, the Russian Ruble was sixty two Spot three, five to the US dollar.
你可以这样读 1美元等于62卢布 And the way you read that is one US dollar equals sixty two spot, three, five Russian rubles.
1美元可以买62 35卢布 或者说62 35卢布可以买1美元 So one dollar buys 62.35 rubles, or it takes 62.35 rubles to buy one US dollar.
美元大国则是如此 The dollar majors are.
转主修 因为所有主要货币都对美元报价 Turned majors because it's all the major currencies quoted against the US Dollar.
这些交易占全球四个x市场日交易量的85% And these make up 85% of daily transaction volume in the four x markets globally.
和 And.
当你看主要货币时 我们看欧元 When you look at the major currencies, so we look at Euro.
日元 英镑 瑞士法郎 加拿大奥兹元 港币 Yen, sterling, swissy, canadian Ozzy dollar, hong Kong dollar.
当你观察主要货币对美元的汇率时 When you look at the major currencies against the US dollar,
这些是构成绝大多数日常事务的 您将看到的是一个表 These are the ones that make up the vast majority of daily transactions, and what you're going to see is a table.
所有媒体都会引用 不管是电视还是财经新闻频道 Quoted on all media outlets, so whether it's on television, on financial news channels.
你会看到 股票行情显示在屏幕的底部 Where you have, uh, the ticker dropping across the bottom of the screen.
不管是在网上还是报纸上 你都会看到交叉利率的表格 Or whether it's online or whether it's in the newspaper, you're going to see a table of cross rates.
这些货币被报价 So currencies that are quoted against.
美元 我们称之为美元 主要货币和 The US dollar, so we call these the dollar, majors and.
我们又都是 We all were again.
作为零售商人掉进了这个陷阱 Falling into the trap here as retail traders.
再一次 我们陷入了这个陷阱 Again, we're folding into this trap of.
根据经济规模或发生的交易规模划分货币 Segmenting currencies by the size of the economy or the size of the transactions that occur.
我们必须非常小心 因为真正重要的显然是 正如我们已经指出的这些货币的波动性 And we have to be very careful, because what really matters obviously is, as we've pointed out the volatility of these currencies.
你可以看到 例如 在这里的表格中 这是每一种货币对美元的报价 So you can see, for example, uh, in the table here, this is every currency that's quoted against the US dollar.
这些国家被称为美元大国 These are known as the dollar majors.
交叉汇率 具体来说 交叉汇率被定义为不存在的货币 Cross rates, specifically, cross rates, are defined as the currencies that are not.
对未对美元报价的横截面报价 Quoted the crosswaits that are not quoted against the US Dollar.
交叉汇率被认为是相互对立的主要汇率 例如 这是加拿大元 Cross rates are quoted as the majors against each other. So for example, we have here the Canadian dollar.
对其他主要货币的报价 Quoted against the rest of the major currencies.
所以这里的加元可以买95个现货859 还有日本的 So the Canadian dollar here buys ninety five Spot eight, five, nine, japanese yet.
当你把所有的东西结合在一起时 这就是桌子 And this is the table when you combine the whole lot.
这张表你会经常看到 媒体渠道 美元巨头和十字路口 This is the table that you're going to see all the time in general, media outlets, the dollar majors and the crossroads.
但我们更清楚现在 当我们看到这个时 我们知道 But we know better Now, we know that when we see this.
这并不意味着我们看到的是一张机遇表 This doesn't mean what we're looking at is a table of opportunity.
我们看到的表格只是主要货币对美元和它们自己的汇率 The table that we're looking at is just major currencies against the US dollar and against themselves.
这并不一定等于波动性 机会和风险 所以我们用不同的方式划分 And that doesn't necessarily equal volatility, opportunity and risk, so we segment in a different way.
作为专业交易员 我们必须根据货币的依赖性进行细分 As professional traders, we have to segment based on what the currency is dependent on.
这是我们采取的第一步 And what regime the currency is part of That's the first step we take.
我们会在视频中进一步阐述这个问题 但我们已经迈出了非常重要的第一步 So we're going to build this out further as we go through the video series, but we've taken a very important first step.
在定义 In defining.
这正是专业交易员的组合方式 Exactly how professional traders group.
他们的货币和这些分类是基于寻找波动性的原则 也就是机会和风险 Their currencies and those groupings are based on the principle of seeking out volatility, so opportunity and risk.
所以 So.
我们已经迈出了第一步 我们还会继续 我们接下来要做的是看视频二 We've taken that first step, we'll build up further, and what we have to do next is go to video number two.
第二个视频将会集中讲解 真正理解两者的区别 And video number two will be, will be concentrating on really understanding the differences between.
外汇制度 也就是固定汇率和浮动汇率 Forex regimes, so the fixed versus the floating regime.
在我们继续看视频之前 尽管我要走了 让我们去培训台做个快速总结 Before we move on to video, too, though I'm going to go, let's go over to the training desk for a quick summary.
然后我们会转到第二段视频继续建立这个基金会 And then we'll shoot over to video number two and continue to build out this foundation.
好了 欢迎回到讲台上来 你刚才看到的 OK, so welcome back to the desk. What you just saw there.
是理解和建立基础的第一步 Was the first real step to understanding and getting a foundation.
在全球外汇市场上 这实际上是在寻找机会 的机会 In the global currency markets, which is actually to look at the opportunities. The opportunity set.
全球外汇市场呈现给交易者的 That the global currency markets present to us as traders.
第一步是真正理解定义 例如 作为一个零售商人 And that first step is really understanding definitions When you see, for example, as a retail trader,
由经纪公司发给你的每日概要 A daily rundown sent to you by a brokerage company.
或者是媒体公司 比如电视 报纸甚至网上 Or a media company, like on television or in a newspaper or even online.
你会发现所有这些人 所有这些公司 And what you'll find is that all of these people, all of these companies.
他们根据这些流行的和预先确定的定义对货币进行分组 They group currencies based on these popularized and predetermined definitions.
你在电脑屏幕上看到的 And what you saw on the computer screen.
是他们如何做到这一点的一个例子 所以把所有的美元交叉组合到一个区域 Was an example of how they all do this, so grouping all of the dollar crosses into one area.
把所有非美元交叉盘组合在一起 比如欧元交叉盘 日元交叉盘 英镑交叉盘 都在一个区域 Grouping all of the non dollar crosses, so the euro crosses, the yen crosses, the Sterling crosses all into one area.
这都是由大小和地理位置决定的 And it's all really predetermined by the size and geography.
国家和货币本身 所以大国在这里停车 Of the countries and currencies themselves, so big countries are pull over here.
大国对美元 大国对其他国家 So big countries against the US dollar, big countries against each other.