Now, let's move on to the second challenge-- anticipating
future supply chain needs.
At this point, we assume that you've
assessed, captured, and evaluated your supply chain
strategy.
The next challenge is to determine the future needs
of the supply chain.
It's not enough to design a supply chain for today's
requirements; you need to think beyond the current state
to make sure that the supply chain is robust enough
to handle changes in the business, environmental,
economic, and political environments.
Of course, for short-term planning-- a month,
a quarter or a year-- we've already
described forecasting techniques that can be used.
What we want to discuss here is something
for a longer timeline.
And once this is done, we can then
move on to the third challenge of crafting the new
or revised and improved supply chain strategy.
Now, longer range planning requires a different set
of tools than what we discussed in SC1x.
To handle planning over a longer time
horizon of 5 or more years, we'll
use a technique called scenario planning.
Now scenario planning is a brainstorming methodology
pioneered by Shell Corporation in the 1970s.
And it's widely used by organizations
such as UPS, the US Department of Transportation, Apple,
Disney, Motorola, and many, many others.
A definition that I like is that it's
a structured brainstorming methodology that
immerses decision makers of any organization
in different potential future scenarios in order
to better understand potential risks, blindspots,
opportunities, and future needs.
Essentially, it's a method of shifting
from predicting of events over this long-time horizon
to preparing for effects.
So in order to help you understand
how to use scenario planning, we've
created two animated videos that should help you understand,
one, the process of scenario planning, and, two,
the importance of freeing your mind
to make the brainstorming a much more worthwhile activity.