Hello Richie owns here 大家好，我是Richie
Welcome to the segment 欢迎来到这个环节
And this one is currency exchange rates 这一节讲汇率
So it's part of this big international reading 它是国际贸易的一部分
but we're gonna finally get into some numbers 我们最终会得到一些数据
If you watch a lot of the other segments and economics 如果你已经学习了经济学的大部门内容
you know, it's very factual, very discussional, but this now is actually a little sad numbers 你知道，这是非常真实的，非常具有讨论性的，但这实际上数据有点不乐观
So the average candidate hates economics 因此，大多数人讨厌经济学
gets very bored with all of the narrative, and just focuses in on calculates 对所有叙述都感到无聊，只关注计算
There won't be many, but this is one small area where they exist in econ 内容不会太多，但这是他们属于经济学的一小部门知识
So my advice to keep pace with the average candidate, make sure you can do these 因此，我的建议是确保你做到与大多数考生一样
So here we go 那么我们开始
Foreign exchange quotation 外汇报价
This is the format of the quote that you will see in the CFA examination 这是你将在CFA考试中看到的报价格式
This is not our format 这不是我们的格式
We're not chosen this 我们没有选择这个
we are following along from the syllabus 我们遵循学习大纲
So whether you're used to this quotation or not, whether you agree with it or not 因此，无论你是否习惯这种报价，无论是否同意
this is how it's going to look 这都是它的形式
we've got here one point four one six USD slash Euro 这里是1.416美元/欧元
in the underlying readings，and therefore, in the exam, the way you must interpret that 在基础阅读材料中，因此，在考试中，你必须以这样的形式去解释
whether you see it like this on your trading platform or not, is that the euro is the base 无论是否在交易平台上看到这种情况，你都必须把欧元当做基础货币
So as it says on the right hand side, this is the way you interpret 就像右半部分那样，这就是你解释它的方式
It’s one point four one six USD per euro 每1欧元兑换1.416美元
USD is the price currency, 美元是计价货币
that's the number，that are one point four one six units of the price currency 就是这个数字，1.416单位计价货币
Per Euro, there is one unit of the base Euro,of the base currency 每1欧元是一个基础货币单位
so it's one point four one six USD per one Europe 所以每1欧元就是1.416美元
Now, if that's familiar to you, great 现在，如果你熟悉这个的话，那就太好了
If it isn't, you need to get used to that 如果还没有，那么你需要习惯
Two types of exchange quotes you may be asked about on the exam 在考试中你可能会被问到两种类型的汇率报价形式
nominal and real 名义汇率和实际汇率
The nominal is the exchange rate quoted at any point in times 名义汇率是指直接公布的汇率
the nominal exists 名义上的存在
You can almost think of the word nominal is being silent 你几乎可以想到名义这个词是无声的
If I just say to you, oh, I've just seen the exchange rate on my screen 如果我只是对你说，哦，我刚刚在屏幕上看到了汇率
It is one point four one six 是1.416
That is the nominal rate 这就是名义汇率
The real exchange rate 实际汇率
Well, we've seen this in the past 我们以前见过
nominal versus real，the difference，inflation 名义与实际之差为通货膨胀率
So if you take the actual exchange rate, which is quoted 因此，如果你引用的是实际汇率
and you rip out the effect of inflation, you're left with the real exchange rate 并且排除了通货膨胀的影响，那么你将获得实际汇率
When you take out the effect of inflation, you take out the price levels 当消除通货膨胀的影响时，就消除了物价水平的影响
What you're looking at there is really purchasing power 你所看到的实际上是购买力
Now, will you be asked to calculate it? Potentially? 现在，要求计算它？可能吗？
We have the formula in the readings 这里有公式
If you want to get to the real exchange rate 如果你想获得实际汇率
and we're writing it here as priced slash base following this convention 我们按照这个惯例，将它写为，计价货币/基准货币
I think it's easiest to learn all of Foreign Ex by thinking in terms of priced and base 我认为通过考虑计价货币/基准货币来学习外汇是最简单的
If you start to think of domestic and foreign，it can get confusing 如果从国内和国外来考虑，这会引起混乱
because it depends where you're based 因为这取决于你的基础货币
Now domestic per foreign is different, depending on which country you live in 国内和国外是不同的，这取决于你生活在哪个国家
So I would always stick with labeling it in your head price，per base 因此，我始终坚持贴上标签，计价货币在前，基准货币在后
the base is always the second one 基础货币是第二个
So for looking for real price per base 要知道每单位基础货币的真实价格
you take the nominal exchange rate 需要使用名义汇率
and you multiply by the ratio of the two countries, CPIs 然后乘以两个国家CPIs 的比率
but you put the base on the top and the price on the bottom 但将基础货币放在上面，而计价货币放在下面
So take the nominal multiply by CPI the base on the top 因此将名义汇率乘以，CPI（base）
CPI of the priced on the bottom 除以CPI（price）
Let's see if we can put that into practice 让我们看看是否可以将其付诸实践
As I say, I think numbers are possible on this 正如我所说，我认为出一些计算题是有可能的
I'm not saying probable 我不是说可能
Most of this exam will be either a discussion, a definition or analysis of given numbers 考试的大部分内容将是讨论、定义或分析给定的数字
Straight counts on that common 直接依赖于那个共同点
But you need to be prepped for it, because the average candidate will be in economics 但是你需要为此做好准备，因为大多数考生将进入经济领域
So what do we have? 那我们有什么呢？
Base period at CPI is in the US and the UK are both one hundred 基期,美国与英国的CPI都是100
Well, here's some interpretation, some analysis straight away 好，我们马上来进行一些解释和一些分析
If the CPIs of both one hundred, then the nominal exchange rate is equal to the real 如果CPI均为100，则名义汇率等于实际汇率
We are told at that base period, the exchange rate is USD slash GBP one seventy 我们被告知在基期，汇率是美元/英镑 1.70
get into good habits 养成良好的习惯
Whenever I'm given an exchange rate, I'm gonna label a base 每当给我汇率时，我都会把基础货币标注出来
So USD slash GBP ，GBP is the base 所以美元/英镑，英镑是基础货币
It's one point seven 汇率是1.70
That means one point seven USD per GBP 这意味着每英镑可以兑换1.7美元
Now, that's just given as the exchange rate 这只给出了汇率
That means it's the nominal 这意味着它是名义值
But if our CPIs are also equal, it’s also the real 如果CPI也相等，那么它也是实际汇率
real is equal to nominal at one seventy 实际值等于名义值的1.7倍
three years later 三年后
exchange rate is USD per GBP one sixty 汇率是,美元/英镑 1.6
That means the nominal exchange rate is one sixty 这意味着名义汇率是1.6
But now CPI is one ten in the US one twelve in the UK 但是现在,美国CPI是110，而英国是112
Again, I'm gonna label GBP is the base 同样，我要标记英镑为基础货币
Here's the UK 这是英国的
So that one twelve is the base CPI 因此，CPI（base)是112
And as we noted, 正如我们指出的那样，
when we're trying to go from nominal back to real 当我们尝试从名义汇率得到实际汇率时
we need the base CPI on the top 我们需要CPI（base)放在上面（分子）
So what is the real exchange rate? 那么实际汇率是多少？
Well, let's have a look 让我们看一下
See, real exchange rate 看，实际汇率
You're going to take our nominal rate 你将采用我们的名义汇率
So we were given the nominal multiply by the CPI of the base on the top 我们已被给出名义值，乘以CPI（base）
That was the UK of one twelve divided by the CPI of the priced US 那是英国的CPI,112除以美国的CPI
that gives us one point six two nine 得出的结果为1.629
And that's it in terms of a straightforward calculation，that's all it is 就直接计算而言,这就是全部内容
But have sympathy with the examiner 但要同情考官
This is why the exams going to be more analytical than just straight counts 这就是为什么考试变得更注重分析而不是直接计算
You're probably looking at that and thinking 你可能看到后又思考
so what? 接下来如何呢？
And that's really what the examiner thinks 而那正是考官的想法
I don't want to give you a calculation 我不想给你一个计算
Say, just do it, 然后说，做吧
because it doesn't prove anything 因为它什么也证明不了
What you want to be able to do is chat about it 你想要做的就是谈论它
So what does this real exchange rate tell us? 那么这个实际汇率告诉我们什么呢？
It means US goods and services 它意味着美国的商品和服务
So US goods，think of a basket of us goods 美国的商品,可以认为是一篮子美国商品
that would have cost one seventy at the base period 在基期要花费1.7美元
because that was the real rate at the base period 因为那是基期的实际汇率
It was the nominal 这是名义值
but CPIs were equal 但CPIs是相等的
So it was also the real 所以这也是实际值
So US goods and services that cost one seventy at the base period 因此，在基期需要花1.7美元购买的商品和服务
now only cost one six two nine in real terms 现在只需要花费1.629美元
if purchased in the UK 如果在英国购买
So you're looking at the cost of us goods and services 你会看到在美国购买的商品和服务的成本
to a UK investor in real terms was one seventy 对一个英国投资者来说，按实际汇率为1.7计算
is now one six two nine 现在是1.629
The real exchange rate, therefore, has fallen from one seventy to one six two nine 因此，实际汇率已从1.70跌至1.629
Not the most important calculation, 这不是最重要的计算
not even the most likely calculation by any means, 甚至不是什么有意义的计算
but worth, I think having a look at 但是值得看一看
as long as you know that formula, the ratio CPIs times the nominal 只要知道该公式，CPI之比乘以名义汇率
you're in business and the base CPI is on the top CPI（base） 在上边
Next up spots and forwards 接下来，即期和远期
We're gonna talk about what a spot and forward is 我们将谈论什么是即期与远期
And then we'll move into doing cross rates and the like 然后，学习交叉汇率
and talk a little bit more about forwards in another segment book 并在另一科目进一步讨论远期交易
Also spot rates and exchange rate for immediate delivery 即期汇率，为现时外汇市场的汇率水平
Forward，an agreement to buy or sell a specific amount of currency at a future date at a quoted rate 远期汇率，在未来某一时间以报价汇率买卖一定数量货币的合约
So just be certain in your mind hear about the timings of what's going on 所以在一定要知道贸易发生的时间
So today,if we decide to go for a spot rate 今天，如果我们决定采用即期汇率
we are swapping currency 那就是在交换货币
And we'll swap at that rate 我们将以该汇率交换
But if we sign up today to a forward contract,nobody exchanges the currency today 但是如果我们今天签定远期合约 ,没有人会在今天交换货币
but we have committed, we have agreed 但是我们已经承诺，我们已经同意
We have signed up to transact in the future at a rate agreed today 我们已经签署了以今天商定的汇率进行未来交易的协议
Key point, you know what today's forward rate is 要点是，你知道今天，远期汇率是多少
So you could turn on your screen today and you could look for the ninety day forward rate 因此，你可以今天打开报价信息，寻找90天期的远期汇率
That ninety day forward rate is a rate you could lock in，sign up to，agree to today 90天的远期汇率是你今天能够锁定、签署并同意的汇率
But you would then go about your life for ninety days 但你需要等90天
and in ninety days time come back and transact at that rate 然后在90天之内，以这样的汇率进行交易
You're locking in a rate today for transaction in the future 你现在锁定了将来交易的汇率
much more and forwards if you look at the derivatives material 如果你学习衍生品的知识还有更多远期合约的内容
Now market participants 现在市场参与者
who is in the forex market？ 谁是外汇市场的参与者？
hedgers and speculators, again, big overlap here to the world of derivatives 套期保值者和投机者，再次与衍生品的内容重叠
Hedgers have an existing risk that they want to try and eliminate with forward contracts 套期保值者承担风险，他们想要通过远期合约消除它
So good example 很好的例子
Let's imagine I've got some foreign currency, the time due to receive in nineteen eight time 假设我有一些外币，应该在19点18分收到
So I'm in the US 我在美国
somebody is gonna pay me Euros in ninety days time 有人要在90天后付欧元给我
Well, the risk I'm exposed to is 好吧，我面临的风险是
that I don't know what those Euros will be worth in the US dollars in ninety days 我不知道这些欧元在90天后以美元计价值多少钱
So I'm gonna receive three million Euros, which is a huge amount for me 我将获得300万欧元，这对我来说是一笔巨款
I have no idea what that's gonna turn into an US dollars 我不知道那会变成美元
My worry is the Euro collapses in the next ninety days 我担心的是，欧元在接下来的90天里将崩溃
and the bag of Euros I get is worth nothing in US dollars 而我拿到的欧元以美元计一文不值
So what I do is agree a rate today 所以我要做的就是在今天确定一个汇率
I don't want those Euros in ninety days 在90天后我想要的不是欧元
I want USD 我想要美元
so right here, right now today I sign up to a forward contract 所以我今天签署了一份远期合同
to sell those Euros at a set USD rate 以现在锁定的汇率卖出那些欧元
now I'm locked in 现在我锁定了这个远期交易的汇率
Now I know exactly what those three million euros will be worth in US dollars to me in ninety days 现在我确切地知道90天后收到的300万欧元值多少
And I can relax 我可以放松了
Now whether it turns out to have been a good decision or not 不管事实证明这是不是一个好的决定
Who knows? 谁知道呢？
Maybe in ninety days, 也许在90天后
those Euros would have been worth a lot more, 这些欧元的价值会高得多，
but maybe they would have been worth a lot less 但也许它们的价值会低得多
I'm just cutting out risk 我只是在抵消风险
Speculators have no existing risk 投机者没有现时风险
Your speculators are taking on risk with the forward，trying to earn a profit 投机者正冒着远期风险，试图获利
They want to lock in this rate, thinking they know better than the market 他们想锁定汇率，以为自己比市场更了解
So they think they can buy or sell a currency in a much better rate than the spot rate in ninety days 因此，他们认为他们可以在90天后以比即期汇率更好的汇率买卖货币
So hedgers trying to remove risk 所以套期保值试图消除风险
speculators taking on that risk 而投机者承担风险
sell side,buy side 卖方和买方
not too exciting 不要太兴奋
The sell side are the market makers，large multinational banks 卖方指的是做市者，大型跨国银行
bank historically has a huge part of the forex market 银行历来在外汇市场中占有很大份额
buy side, everybody else, corporations, investors, governments, etc 买方,其他所有人,公司、投资者、政府等
and the retail market, tourism and so on 以及零售市场，旅游业等
So really just need to know the sell side is setting the market 实际上只需要知道卖方在造市
That's how you're going to everybody else on the buy side is using that market 买方是利用这个市场进行交易的其他人
All right, we've got a scene set 好吧，我们已经设定了一个场景
Let's now do some counts 现在让我们做些计算
First one we're going to look at is the basic idea of currency appreciation or depreciation 我们首先要看的是货币升值或贬值的基本概念
It's very simple in a way, but there is a little bit of danger to this 从某种意义上讲，它非常简单，但是有一点危险
So first up, USD slash Euro, the first thing you do is labeling 所以首先，美元/欧元，你首先要做的是把这个标出来
You can't do this often enough, get comfortable with the way the quotes will be presented 你可能不会经常这样做，但要习惯这种方式
USD slash Euro means that's how many US dollars I will get per single Euro 美元/欧元，意思是每1欧元我将得到多少美元
Euro is the base 欧元是基础货币
decreases from one forty two to one thirty nine 从1.42下降到1.39
That means one Euro, the base used to get a dollar forty two 这意味着1欧元，过去能得到1.42美元
Now that same single shiny euro buys me only a dollar thirty nine 现在同样的1欧元只能得到1.39美元
My single Euro used to turn into a dollar forty two 以前1欧元能兑换1.42美元
Now it sends into only a dollar thirty nine 现在，它只剩下1.39美元
That means my Euro is buying fewer dollars，as therefore depreciated 这意味着欧元购买的美元变少了，所以它贬值了
And we can work out by how much the USD price of a Euro has gone down by, 我们可以算出，1欧元的美元价格下跌了多少
well, one thirty nine over one forty two minus one (1.39/1.42)-1
basic Quant calculation of a holding period return minus two point one one percent 持有期收益率是-2.11%
The Euro has depreciated relative to the USD by two point one one 欧元相对于美元贬值了2.11%
It is buying fewer US dollars 它购买的美元减少了
Get happy with that logic 对这种逻辑感到满意
Or if you just want to learn the rule 或者，如果你只是想学习规则
If you are considering the base and the number in the quote goes down 如果你正在考虑基础货币，而报价数字下降
the base has depreciated 则基础货币贬值
Then there are two questions which are probably already forming, or two facts forming in your mind 接下来你可能已经想到了两个问题，或者已经形成了两个事实
Number one, if the Euro has depreciated, what's happened to the US dollar? 第一，如果欧元贬值，美元会怎么样？
Well, it used to cost us a dollar forty two to buy Euro 过去我们花了1.42美元购买欧元
Now, it only costs a dollar thirty nine 现在，它只需花费1.39美元
We can say factually without exception 实际上我们可以毫无例外地说
If the Euro has depreciated in that quote against the USD 如果欧元相对于美元贬值
then the USD has appreciated against the Euro fact 那么美元相对于欧元实际上升值了
But the second part is where the danger comes in 但是第二部分，危险出现了
What you can't say is that the US dollar has appreciated relative to the Euro by two point one one percent 你不能说，美元相对于欧元的升值幅度是2.11%
Because in this calculation, 因为在这个计算中，
we don't have the USD is the base 我们不是以美元为基准
Therefore, we are not considering one US dollar 因此，在你谈论美元的升值幅度之前
before you can talk about the percentage appreciation of the USD 我们不是考虑1美元
you have to switch the quote around 你必须转换一下这个报价
So to switch around a quote, 因此，要转换一下报价，
you need to take the reciprocal 需要取倒数
If the USD to Euro is one forty two, 如果美元/欧元是1.42，
the Euro to USD is one over one forty two 那么欧元/美元就是1/1.42
That's the reciprocal 这是对等的
So point seven zero four two 因此，是0.7042
and you do the same to the second quote, the one thirty nine 然后对第二个你做同样的处理，即1.39
Take the reciprocal，one over one thirty nine, 取到数，为1/1.39，
we get point seven one nine four 我们得到0.7194
So that's the quote with the USD as the base 这就是以美元为基础货币的报价
Now you can do your calculation 现在你可以进行计算了
should be clear that this time the base is appreciated was by point seven zero,point seven one nine four 应该清楚的是，这次的基础货币从0.7042升值到0.7194
by how much same percentage calculation 按相同百分比计算，升值了多少？
So ending of ratio minus one, two point one six percent 因此，减去1，得到2.16%
So that's the danger I mentioned 这就是我提到的危险
Make sure before you quote a percentage movement that 在报价变动之前
you have done the calculation with that currency as the base 请确保以该货币为基础货币进行计算
So solid calculation, definitely get happy with that 那么如此可靠的计算，一定会让您满意
And finally, cross rates 最后，交叉汇率
Cross rates 交叉汇率
Again, solid calculation on a scene setter for level two 再次，在二级中，在设定好基准货币的情况下进行计算
We do a lot of this to try make arbitrage gains at level two 在二级中，我们利用它来计算是否有套利机会
it's a basic bit of math 这是数学的基本知识
What have we got here? 我们在这里得到了什么？
Following FX rates 给定下面的汇率
We've got Swiss Francs per US and New Zealand dollars per US,two rates 瑞士法郎/美元、新西兰元/美元两种汇率
We are asked for the Swiss to New Zealand cross 我们被要求计算瑞士法郎/新西兰元的交叉汇率
Okay, well, obviously, this right here has the Swiss in it 好吧，很明显，这儿有瑞士法郎
Your second one has the New Zealand dollar in it 第二个汇率中有新西兰元
but there's a third currency, USDs 但是这儿第三种货币，美元
We're gonna use those two rates to cancel out the US dollar and be left with Swiss francs per New Zealand 我们要做的是从这两个汇率中消掉美元，得到瑞士法郎/新西兰元
How do we set it up? 那我们如何做到呢？
We'll step one 我们将迈出第一步
We need the Swiss Franc per slash New Zealand dollar 我们需要瑞士法郎/新西兰元
so we set it up with Swiss Francs on the top 所以我们将瑞士法郎放在上面
and New Zealand on the bottom 将新西兰元放在下面
So we need Swiss Francs per New Zealand 我们需要瑞士法郎/新西兰元
We are gonna get there by multiplying together two rates 我们要把两个比率相乘
But check you have the right rates 但是，检查一下你的比率是正确的
We need Swiss Francs on the top 我们需要瑞士法郎在上面
So Swiss Francs must be there 所以瑞士法郎必须在这儿
And we need New Zealand dollars on the bottom. 我们需要新西兰元在下面
So New Zealand must be there 因此，新西兰必须在这里
If we do that 如果我们那样做
Well, USD there 好吧，这儿有美元，
we set up to the US dollars will cancel out 这两个美元将被消掉
and we are left with Swiss Francs over US dollars 只剩下瑞士法郎/美元
Now, the beauty of this example is we are very kind to you，you have the right rates 这个例子的美妙之处在于有恰当的汇率
because you have Swiss Franc per us which is exactly what we needed 因为有瑞士法郎/美元，这正是我们所需要的
And New Zealand per US and NZD per US 新西兰元/美元
we need USD per New Zealand dollars 我们需要美元/新西兰元
So we've got the right rates 因此，我们获得了正确的汇率
but we need to switch this one around 但我们需要转换一下这个汇率
We needed USD per New Zealand 我们需要美元/新西兰元
We've got New Zealand per USD 我们知道新西兰元/美元
do we know how to switch that round? 我们知道如何转换吗？
Take the reciprocal 取倒数
So the math gets fairly straightforward 数学变得相当直观
We know New Zealand to USD is two, two, five, two nine 我们知道新西兰/美元是2.2529
Just say the reciprocal and you're in business 只需要求倒数，就得到了这个值
Now, we have the right rate 现在，我们有了正确的比率
Multiply that by Swiss to US,these two together 将这个乘以瑞士法郎/美元
And we've got ourselves the Swiss Franc to New Zealand rate 我们就会得到瑞士法郎/新西兰的汇率
Will you be asked to do that calculation? 你会被要求进行这样的计算吗？
As I say, I think that is more probable than your real versus nominal 就像我说的，我认为相对于实际汇率与名义汇率计算，这个更有可能会考
And the average candidate who is bored of reading all of the economic theory 对于厌倦了学习经济学理论的大多数考生
We'll see this as an oasis of numbers and hone in on it 我们可以将其作为经济学中少有的计算题进行练习
So if I was you, 因此，如果我是你
I'd try and get good at this little calculation at the back end of that segment 我会努力做好这一小段的计算