okay good afternoon and welcome back 好的，下午好，欢迎
everyone to our options education 大家回到我们的期权教育
webinar series my name is tony zhang i'm 网络研讨会系列我的名字是托尼张我是
the chief strategist here at options 期权游戏的首席策略师
play and we are yet upon another 我们又是一个
earnings season so today we're gonna go 财报季所以今天我们将讨论
over
what our expectations are for this 我们对此的期望
upcoming earnings season what are the 即将到来的收益季节
things that you need to be aware of as ，当
you're trading options around earnings 您围绕收益交易期权时，您需要注意
specifically around what 哪些事项，特别是
how the how the
how the value of your option changes
around earnings season so that you can 围绕收益季节期间您的期权价值如何变化的方式，以便您可以
account for them when you're 在
anticipating what the potential outcomes 预测
are for different option strategies and 不同期权策略的潜在结果，
then giving you a checklist of what i 然后向您提供一份清单，列出
look for when i'm going into an earnings 我在
announcement 发布收益公告时
to do research on an individual stock as 要对某只股票进行研究
to
trying to make an educated guess as to 以尝试
whether that stock has has a higher 对该股票是否进行有根据的猜测 在我进行每笔期权交易之前，我有更高的
probability of beating or potentially 可能超过或可能
missing on earnings giving you a 错过收益，为您提供
checklist of the things that i look for 一份我要寻找的东西的清单，
before i place every single options
trade so that you can hopefully also 所以 当你有一个特定的想法时，希望你也能
become informed and do your own research 变得知情并做你自己的研究
when you have a specific idea so before ，所以在
we get started what we are going to 我们开始之前，我们今天要在
discuss here today is purely for 这里讨论的内容纯粹是为了
education and demonstration purposes it 教育和演示目的，它
is not a solicitation or recommendation 不是
to buy or sell any of the specific 购买或出售任何东西的招揽或建议
securities that we are going to discuss 我们将
during today's session 在今天的会议期间讨论的特定证券中，
so we'll start off by taking a look at 因此我们将首先查看第二季度
the q2 q3 earnings preview we'll take a 第三季度收益预览 我们将
look at what happened last quarter in q2 看看第二季度上个季度发生的情况
and then look at what our expectations ，然后看看我们的预期
are for q3 this year then we'll talk a 是什么 对于今年的第三季度，我们将
little bit about the difference between 稍微讨论一下
buying versus selling an option going 买入与卖出期权之间的区别
into an earnings announcement largely 进入收益公告在很大程度上，
you have the choice of either buying 您可以选择购买，
because you think the stock's going to 因为您认为股票
make a big move or you have the option 会发生重大变化，或者您有选择权
of selling because the implied 因为隐含
volatility is high there are pros and 波动率很高，所以
cons to each one i want to make sure you 每个人都有利有弊 我想确保您
understand that
at least from a conceptual perspective 至少从概念的角度理解这一点
and then we're going to dive into the ，然后我们将 深入研究
greek so that you can actually get some 希腊语，以便您实际上可以获得
numbers around these different factors 有关这些不同因素的一些数字，
that are going to affect your options 这些因素将影响您对
around earnings and i'll show you my 收益的选择，我将向您展示我的
earnings research checklist that i go 收益研究清单，我会通过该清单
through
to gain a better understanding as to 更好地了解
which stocks may have a better 哪些股票可能有 一个更好
probability of beating versus missing 的胜率与丢失
earnings and lastly trying to go through 收入的可能性，最后尝试
a few examples to hopefully help bring 通过几个例子来帮助
home the point before we open this for 我们在最后为 qma 在这里打开这个之前帮助带回家，
qma here at the very end
but the primary thing that i want to 但我想
help you walk away from today's session 帮助你离开今天的会议的主要事情
is a clear understanding as to how you 对如何
can research and trade earnings season
with limited risk using options so let's 使用期权在有限风险的情况下研究和交易收益季节有一个清晰的认识，所以让我们
go ahead and get started and let's first 继续开始吧，让我们先
talk about the q3 earnings preview 谈谈第三季度的收益预览，
before we jump into what our 然后再讨论我们对第三季度的
expectations are for q3 let's talk a 预期让我们稍微谈谈
little bit about what happened in q2 so 关于第二季度发生的事情，所以
we saw an 88 我们看到
increase in earnings per share for the s sp 500 股票的每股收益增长了 88
p 500 stocks 23 percent increase year % 销售额同比增长 23%
over year in sales now this is some of 现在这是其中的一部分
the largest gains we've seen simply 我们看到的最大收益仅仅
because q2 of last year was arguably one 是因为去年第二季度可以说是收益和收入下降
of the worst quarters in terms of 最严重的季度之一，
decline for both earnings and revenues
so a record growth here is not 因此这里的创纪录增长并不
surprising 奇怪
what was important for us to pay ，对我们来说重要的是要
attention to was the fact that 10 out of 注意的是
11 sectors did end up beating consensus 11 个行业中有 10 个最终超过了共识，
one of the best quarters we've seen so 这是我们迄今为止看到的最好的季度之一，
far 72 percent of all s p 500 companies 所有 SP 500 公司中有 72%
beat on both top and bottom lines so 在收入和
largely one of the better uh earnings 利润方面都超过了预期，因此在很大程度上是有史以来最好的收益
seasons on 季节之一
on record uh that we have seen in terms ，呃我们 已经
of number of companies or percentage of
companies that were able to be both top 看到了能够同时实现顶
and bottom line 线和底线
revenue and earnings per share but the 收入和每股收益的公司数量或公司百分比，但
biggest thing that i think is 我认为
concerning for investors to see was not 投资者最关心的事情
necessarily how 不一定是公司如何
companies
beat or missed on earnings but more 击败或错过收益 但更
importantly how did stocks react to 重要的是，股票如何对
those beats and misses and this is 这些节拍和失误做出反应，据我所知，就盈利季节股票而言，这
really where we i have not seen these 确实是我们没有看到这些
types of skewed numbers as far as i 类型的偏斜数字的地方
remember in terms of earning seasons
stocks that beat on earnings only moved 盈利超过预期仅
on average of 0.3 percent higher 平均上涨 0.3%
and stocks that missed on earnings saw ，而错过盈利的股票则
such a substantial miss a negative 2.3 大幅亏损 2.3
percent on misses so this is really %，因此这确实
where we have seen a big skew in terms 是我们看到
of not just how companies perform but 的不仅在公司表现如何，而且在如何表现方面都存在很大偏差的地方
how markets reacted after those 市场在这些业绩数据之后做出了反应，
performance numbers so 所以
this is something that we're going to 这是我们
pay attention to because these these we 要关注的事情，因为在过去的几个季度中，我们
saw smaller and smaller beats and bigger 看到越来越小的节拍和
and bigger misses over the past couple 越来越大的失误，
of quarters this really gives us a sense 这确实让我们
for what's priced into the market so 了解了 市场，所以
last quarter there's a lot of optimism 上个季度市场上有很多乐观
priced into the market so when when 情绪，所以当股市上涨时，
stocks beat they barely nudged higher 他们几乎没有推高
stocks that miss because that optimism 那些错过的股票，因为这种乐观情绪
was so high they had us incredible move 如此之高，他们让我们在这个特定的财报季出现了令人
here to the downside now so far this 难以置信的下行趋势。
particular earnings season we've seen 看到了
somewhat similar uh you know outcomes in 有点相似呃你
terms of
of uh how stocks have reacted but it is 知道股票如何反应的结果但是
still pretty early days in this
particular quarter so so far our 到目前为止我们的预期在这个特定季度还
expectation is about a 27 increase on 为时过早
eps versus q3 of last year versus 88 for 与去年第三季度相比，每股收益大约增加了 27 倍，而第二季度为
q2 so substantially lower 88 倍，因此
increase in terms of expectations and 在预期方面的增幅要低得多
the one thing that we really have to ，我们真正需要考虑的一件事
consider is the fact that consensus 是共识
forecasts this particular forecast of 27 预测这一特定预测
increase in eps this has actually fallen 的 eps 增长 27
fairly sharply over the past month or so 在过去一个月左右的时间里实际上已经大幅下降
and this is largely due to the supply ，这主要是由于
chain issues that we continue to see and 我们继续看到的供应链问题
the inflation the cost of goods and 和通货膨胀，商品和
labor that continue to 劳动力成本继续
ha you know has have shown no form of 存在，你
easing in the current quarter and 知道在 本季度，
you know while a lot of companies had 你知道虽然很多公司都
expected that this would start to ease 预计这将
towards the end of the year so far this 在年底前开始缓解，但到目前为止，
does not look like that's going to
happen it looks like it's going to 这看起来不会发生，但
actually get worse going into the end of 到年底，情况实际上会变得更糟
the year so this is really some of the 年所以这确实是
biggest
i would say downside pressures on this 我认为这个特定收益季节的最大下行压力之一，
particular earnings season but it also 但这也
means
that the expectations for this 意味着目前对这个
particular quarter at the moment has 特定季度的预期有
been lowered so the bar has been lowered b een 降低了，所以
in terms of expectations so when we do 在预期方面的标准已经降低，所以当我们确实
see companies that beat my expectation 看到超出我预期的
is that we're going to see larger 公司时，我们将看到
reactions to beats but we're also going 对节拍的更大反应，但我们
to see some fairly sizable misses 也会看到一些相当大的失误，
because companies i think there's you're 因为我认为公司 在消费领域，你
going to see a lot of huge moves in the 会看到很多巨大的变化，
in the
consumer space because companies that
are able to manage their supply chain 因为能够管理供应链
and pass on their 并将
rising in labor and 劳动力和商品成本上涨的公司
cost of goods to the consumer those are 转嫁给消费者，这些公司
the ones that are going to surprise us 将 让
to the upside and then you're going to 我们大吃一惊，然后你会
see some companies that do not fare so 看到一些公司
well in this particular space where they 在这个特定领域表现不佳，
get squeezed out in the supply chain 在供应链中被挤出，
they're not able to pass on their 他们无法将
rising costs onto the consumer and those 不断上涨的成本转嫁给消费者和那些
are the ones we're going to see perhaps 是我们将在这里看到一些大失望的人吗？
some big disappointments here so the 所以
consumer space because supply chain 消费者空间，因为供应链
inflation is going to be a big issue 通胀将是
this particular quarter in my opinion 这个特定季度的一个大问题，在我看来，
you're going to see some big moves there 当你在那里看到一些大动作
when we look at what has reported so far 时 看看到目前为止的报告，
predominantly
we have seen the banks report mostly 我们主要看到银行
last week and 85 percent of the banks 在上周的报告中，85% 的
that have reported have been on both 银行都对
sales and revenue consensus so this is a 销售和收入达成了共识，因此这是
fairly strong start to the quarter with 本季度的一个相当强劲的开端，
the banks showing quite a bit of 银行的表现相当不错
strength here and we'll have to see 这里有点强势，我们将不得不看看
whether this continues into the um the 这是否会持续到市场的
rest of the market so 其他部分，所以
let's take a look at the sectors for 让
this particular quarter when we look at 我们看看这个特定季度的行业，当我们看看
which sectors have seen the largest 哪些行业出现了最大的
upward revisions so analysts who have 向上修正时，分析师认为 已经
revised their sales and eps targets for 修改了本季度的销售额和每股收益目标
this particular quarter
technology energy and real estate are 技术能源和房地产
the three sectors that have seen the
most amount of upward revisions so 是上调幅度最大的三个行业，因此
analysts who have looked at the company 查看该公司的分析师
looked at kind of what's happened over 查看了特定季度发生的情况
the particular quarter and put in their 并投入了 他们
estimates as to where they think these 对他们认为这些
companies will end up both in terms of 公司在
revenue and in terms of earnings 收入和
on the flip side we look at sectors 收益方面最终会在
where we've seen analysts revise those 哪里的估计 我们看到分析师将这些
expectations to the downside and that's 预期修正为下行，这
where we've seen most of that revision 就是我们
in the utilities phase and the consumer 在公用事业阶段和消费
sectors and again this repo this goes 领域看到大部分修正的地方，而这次回购又
back to our 回到了我们
supply and inflation numbers here uh 这里的供应和通胀数据，
with respect to these um consumer 嗯，就这些消费
sectors that are likely going to see 领域而言 这可能会看到
some downside pressures from the supply 来自供应链的一些下行压力
chain and ，
uh you know cost of goods and cost of 嗯，你现在知道这里的商品成本和劳动力成本，
labor here at the moment so 所以
when we think about trading options for 当我们考虑围绕收益的交易选择时，
around earnings the most important thing 最重要的
to to understand are the three main 是要了解三个主要
factors that will affect the value of an 因素 这将影响收益公告中期权的价值，
option going into an earnings
announcement so we're going to break 所以我们将把
this up into 它分解为
buying options and selling options so 买入期权和卖出期权，所以
when we talk about buying options we're 当我们谈论买入期权时，我们现在
largely trying to take limited risk in 主要是试图承担有限的风险以
exchange for unlimited reward now this 换取无限的回报 这样
has 做
the benefit of having limited risk so 的好处是风险有限，
that if you're wrong in the direction 所以如果你在方向上错了，
you contain how much risk you take and 你会控制你承担的风险
you have the benefit of if you get the ，如果你得到了，你就会受益
direction correct you get unlimited 方向正确，理论上你会获得无限的
upside in theory so 上涨空间，因此
however there are some drawbacks to this 这种风险存在一些缺点，
risk this asymmetrical risk reward ratio 这种不对称的风险回报率
that's skewed in your favor so when 对你有利，所以当
we're talking about buying options i 我们谈论购买期权时，我
consider this as one step forward with 认为这是向前迈出的一步，
two steps back 后退两步
what that means is that when you're 。 意思是，当你
buying an option you have this 购买期权时，你有这种
asymmetric risk to reward where you have 不对称的风险来回报，而你的
limited risk and unlimited profit 风险有限，利润
potential and basically if you get the 潜力无限，基本上如果你的
directional view correct so if you think 方向观点正确，那么如果你
the stock's going to beat on earnings 认为股票会超过收益
and the stock makes a big move to the 并且股票 一个巨大的
upside well you're going to be able to 上行趋势，您将能够
have a large gain in the underlying
position based on your estimate of 根据您
whether the stock is going to beat or 对股票是否会上涨或下跌的估计在基础头寸中获得巨大收益，
miss
however at the same time there's going 但同时
to be two other factors that are going 还有另外两个因素
to be working against you when you have 当你有这种不对称的风险回报率时，你将会对你不利
this asymmetric risk to reward ratio the
first one is volatility crush the second 第一个是波动率压制 第二
one is time decay so volatility crush 个是时间衰减 所以波动率压制
refers to the implied volatility of an 指的是 im
option prior to earnings is going to be 收益之前期权的波动性将
elevated and that's because the implied 升高，这是因为隐含
volatility the uncertainty around what's 波动率
going to happen on that earnings 、收益公告上将发生的事情的不确定性在收益
announcement is high around before and 和收益之前很高，
earnings so the 因此
the premium that's going to be needed to
purchase that call or put option needs 购买该看涨期权所需的溢价或 看跌期权
to be higher because the person who's on 需要更高，因为在
the other side of that trade the seller 该交易另一端的人，该看涨
of that caller put needs to be 者看跌期权的卖方需要
compensated for taking on the risk to 因承担另一方的风险而得到补偿
the other side
and that's why whenever you're buying an ，这就是为什么每当您购买期权时，您
option going into earnings you're going 都会获利 “一旦收益公告出来，现在
to have higher 将有更高的
option premiums or higher implied 期权溢价或更高的隐含
volatility now once the earnings 波动率
announcement
comes out
that uncertainty factor is gone we know ，不确定因素消失了，我们
exactly how much the company made in 确切地知道公司在
terms of revenue how much they earned in 收入方面赚了多少，他们在
terms of profit or loss and that 损益方面赚了多少，而且
uncertainty goes away so the implied 不确定性消失了 所以隐含
volatility option naturally decreases 波动率期权
immediately after the earnings 在收益公告后自然会立即减少
announcement that's what we call to ，这就是我们所说的
volatility crush and that's going to 波动率期权 h
work against you as the buyer of an 作为期权的买家，这将对您不利，
option so if you buy an option that's 因此，如果您在收益前购买了 3 美元的期权，
three dollars prior to earnings even if
the stock doesn't move 即使股票没有变动，
you will expect that that option will be 您也会期望该期权
worth less the very next day just 在第二天的价值会降低，
because of the uncertainty factor is 因为 不确定性因素
gone and that's going to work against 消失了，这将对
you as the buyer of that option because 您作为该期权的买家不利，因为
when you buy an option you want the 当您购买期权时，您希望
option to increase in value not 期权价值增加而不是
decreasing value which is what the 降低价值，这就是
volatility crush does and then you also 波动率压抑所做的，然后您也会
have time decay because you have to buy 有时间衰减 因为您必须
the option prior to earnings and then 在收益之前购买期权，然后在收益
you have to sell the options after the 之后您必须在该时间段内卖出期权，所以您持有该期权，
earnings during that time period you're 在那段时间内，您的时间
holding on to that option you're going 会
to have time decay during that time so 减少，因此
as a options buyer you have these two 作为期权买家，您 有这两个
factors working against you they're 因素对你不利 他们
constantly working against you they'll 一直在对你不利 他们将
always work against you and what you're 永远对你不利，
trying to do is you're trying to pick 你要做的是尝试选择
options or specifically stocks that you 期权或特别是你
think that you're going to get a large 认为自己的股票 e
enough move in the underlying stock 将在标的股票中获得足够大的变动，这
that's going to raise the value of the
option
faster than what's going to be lost to 将比
volatility crush and time decay so 波动性压抑和时间衰减所造成的损失更快地提高期权的价值，所以
this is where you have one potential 这就是你有一个潜在
thing working in your favor that's going 的事情对你有利的地方
to offset the two things that are 抵消对你不利的两件事，
working against you that's how you can
profit now if you get the directional 如果你的方向
view wrong meaning if you think the 观错误，这就是你现在可以获利的方式，这意味着如果你认为
stock's going to beat but it misses 股票会上涨但它错过了
guess what now you have three factors 猜猜现在你有三个
working against you you have the price 对你不利的因素你有
of the stock working against you you 价格 股票对你不利，你
have volatility crush and you have time 有波动性压抑，你有时间
decay working against you so it's a 衰减对你不利，所以
really difficult proposition to find 要找到
these stocks that you think are going to 这些你认为会
make such a big move that the gains that 做出如此大动作的股票是一个非常困难的提议，
you have in the underlying stock and 你在基础股票中获得的收益以及
subsequently the option will offset the 随后的收益 选项将抵消
volatility crush and the time decay does 波动性压抑和时间衰减
that make sense everyone please type one 是否有意义每个人请
into the chat window if that makes sense 在聊天窗口中输入一个如果这
to you and it's quite difficult in my 对你有意义并且非常不同 在我
opinion to pinpoint stocks that you 看来，很难确定你
think are going to do exactly this which 认为会做这件事的股票，
is effectively beating what the market 这有效地击败了
is anticipating it is going to do but we 市场预期的股票，但我们
see it time and time after every single 会在每个季度之后一次又一次地看到它，
quarter you see stocks that make 10 15 你会看到股票上涨 10 15
20 jumps after earnings because the 20 次 在收益之后，
market got it wrong and if you're able 因为市场出错了，如果您
to pick those stocks this is how you can 能够选择这些股票，这就是您
potentially profit from that okay now on 可能从中获利的
the flip side
you might say to yourself it's really
rare that you're going to be able to 方式
pick out those types of scenarios so 挑选出这些类型的场景，所以
perhaps you might favor something else 也许你可能更喜欢其他
selling options this is really where 出售期权的东西，这真的
well you can have two things working in 很好，你可以让两件事对
your favor you have two steps forward 你有利，你有两步前进
and one potentially massive step back so 和一个潜在的巨大后退，所以
when you're selling an option you have 当你出售一个期权时，你有
the opposite of
of buying an option which is limited 与购买风险有限但回报无限的期权相反，
risk with unlimited reward when you're 当您
selling an option you have limited 出售期权时，您的
reward and potentially unlimited risk so 回报有限且风险可能无限，因此
when you're selling an option the good 当您出售期权时
thing is that what works against an 事情是
options buyer that's going to be start ，对即将开始
that's going to work in your favor
you're selling an option you know that 的期权
the option will experience a volatility
crush on earnings so the value of the 买家不利的做法
option that you sold will naturally 会对您有利
decrease after the earnings announcement 在收益公告后减少
and you also have time decay so while ，你也有时间衰减，所以当
you hold on to it the value of the 你坚持它时，期权的价值
option will simply decay just with time 只会随着时间的推移而衰减，
so if the stock doesn't move you'll 所以如果股票不移动，你
still be profitable just on time decay 仍然会在时间衰减时盈利
and now you add volatility crush on top ，现在你 最重要的是增加波动性
of that those are two things that are 压抑，这些
working in your favor and 是对你有利的两件事，
when you're selling an option what 当你出售期权时，
you're trying to pinpoint are stocks 你试图查明的
that are not going to make huge moves 是不会大幅波动的股票，
certainly not huge moves in the opposite 当然不是相反
direction that you expect it to so if 方向的巨大波动 你期望它如此 如果
you're selling a put you're hoping that 你卖出看跌期权 你
the stock doesn't decline substantially 希望股票不会大幅下跌
if you're selling a call you're hoping 如果你卖出看涨期权 你
that the stock doesn't rise 希望股票不会大幅上涨
substantially
so when you're selling an option what 所以当你卖出时 一个操作
you're hoping is that the volatility 您希望的是，您在出售该期权时将收集到的波动性
crush and the time decay that you're 压抑和时间衰减
going to collect on selling that option
will be larger than any adverse move in 将大于标的股票的任何不利变动，
the underlying stock so does that make 所以这是否
sense everyone please type 2 into the 有意义，请在
chat window if that makes sense to you 聊天窗口中输入 2 如果现在这对您有意义，
now the question is 那么问题
from a lot of traders and viewers is 来自于许多交易员和观众，
which one's better and the answer is one 哪个更好，答案是哪个
is not better than the other they're 并不比另一个更好 他们
just different depends on what your view 只是不同取决于
is in going into earning some stocks you 您对赚取某些股票的看法
think are going to make a big move and 认为将采取重大举措并且
you're trying to capture it well those 您正在努力捕捉它那些
you should probably look at buying 您可能应该考虑购买
options other ones you think it's not 期权的其他选择您认为它
going to make a big move or you're 不会采取重大举措或您
fairly confident that it's going to make 相当有信心它
a me a you know a size a small move in 会使我 a 你知道一个大小 朝
one direction or other you might be 一个方向或其他方向的小幅波动 你可能会
better off selling options and remember 更好地卖出期权并记住
you can't you don't have to just 你不能
outright buy a call or sell a put or buy 直接买入看涨期权或卖出看跌期权或买入看涨期权或
a caller or
buy a call or sell or put or vice versa 买入看涨期权或 卖出或卖出，反之亦然，
you can trade spreads as well right so 您可以 交易点差也是正确的，所以
when we refer to buying options you know 当我们提到购买期权时，您知道
we could buy a debit spread you could 我们可以购买借方点差，您可以
buy a calendar or diagonal spread those 购买日历或对角点差，这些
are just variations of buying options 只是购买期权的变体
that help offset some of the volatility ，有助于抵消一些波动性
crushing time decay but vice versa you 破坏时间衰减，
can instead of just selling a naked call 反之亦然 除了出售裸看涨期权
or a put you could sell a credit spread 或看跌期权，您还可以出售信用价差，
you could sell an iron condor there are 也可以出售铁秃鹰，还有
other options selling strategies but the 其他期权销售策略，但
core
the core
fundamental understanding that you need 您需要拥有的核心基本面理解
to have are these two factors or these 是这两个因素或这
three factors 三个
that are either working in your favor or 因素 作为期权买家或卖家，要么对你有利，要么
against you as an as an option buyer or 对你不利，
seller so just to put some of these some 所以只是将其中的一些
some context around theory because what 放在理论的一些背景下，因为
we've talked about so far is just theory 到目前为止我们所讨论的只是
to put some real numbers behind them we 将一些真实数字放在后面的理论，我们
have to dive into the greeks and there 必须 深入研究希腊语，围绕收益 delta vega 和
are three greeks that are very important theta 有三个非常重要的
around earnings delta vega and theta 希腊语，
those are the three things we were 这是我们提到的三件事
referred to the stock moving ，股票大幅波动
substantially higher or lower
changes in implied volatility the 隐含波动率的更高或更低变化
volatility crush and time decay those 波动率压缩和时间衰减 这些
are the three factors that we talked 是我们讨论过的三个因素
about and these greeks help us quantify ，这些希腊语帮助我们量化
those three factors so if you're looking 这三个因素，因此，如果您正在查看
at an option with the delta of 0.5 that delta 为 0.5 的期权，这
means for every one dollar the stock 意味着每个因素 美元股票
moves the option will move by half as 移动期权将移动
much or 50 cents so if you have a stock 一半或 50 美分，所以如果你有一只股票
that moves 10 on earnings and you have a 的收益移动 10 并且你有
delta of 0.5 then you're expecting that 0.5 的增量，那么你期望
the value of your option will increase 你的期权价值将
by let's say five dollars 增加 5 美元
stock jumps ten dollars on earnings you 股票在收益上上涨 10 美元，您
make a five dollar profit on that 从该收益中获得 5 美元的利润，
earnings that's what delta approximates 这就是 delta
for you and then you have to add vega 对您的近似值，然后您必须将 vega 添加
into this so vega tells you for every 到其中，因此 vega 会告诉您
one percent change in implied volatility 隐含波动率每变化 1%
how much does the value of the option 的价值是多少 期权
change by so a vague of 0.25 means for 变化如此模糊的 0.25 意味着
every 1 change in implied volatility 隐含波动率每变化 1 次，
you'll see a 25 cent drop in the uh in 您就会看到期权价值下降 25 美分，
the value of an option so if you buy 所以如果您
this call option prior to earnings um 在收益之前购买这个看涨期权，
let's say you buy the option for let's 让我们 是你买的期权让我们
say three dollars 说三美元
sorry let's say you buy the option for 对不起 假设你买
five dollars um you buy the option for 五美元的期权 你买五美元的
five dollars and
on earnings it increases uh the stock 期权 收益增加 呃股票
level increases by ten dollars so the 水平增加十美元 所以
value of your option increases by five 你的期权价值增加五
dollars so now the value of your total 美元 所以现在你的总
option is worth ten dollars so the stock 期权价值 10 美元 所以
makes a ten dollar jump the five dollar 股票上涨 10 美元 你买的 5 美元的
option that you buy increases by five 期权增加了 5
dollars so now you have an option that's 美元 所以现在你有一个
worth ten dollars now we know that 价值 10 美元的期权 现在我们知道
volatility crush comes into play let's 波动性压抑开始了
say you have a stock that's currently at 假设你有一只股票，目前的
25 percent uh implied vol and after 隐含波动率是 25%，
earnings the stock drops to 20 收益后股票会下降到 20
implied volatility so if you have a vega 隐含波动率，所以如果你有
of 0.25 that translates to a loss of 0.25 的 vega 转化为
about a dollar fifty in vega because for 大约 50 美元的 vega 损失，因为
every one percent you drop in sorry a 每 1% 对不起，你
dollar twenty-five sorry um a dollar 掉了 25 美元 对不起，
twenty-five in value is lost due to the 由于
volatility crush and then let's say you 波动性压抑，价值 25 美元损失，然后假设你
add theta to it a theta of 0.1 that 添加了 0.1 的 theta，这
means for every day that goes by you 意味着每天 tha 你
lose 10 cents let's say you held on to 损失了 10 美分 假设你持有
this trade for a total of 5 days that 这笔交易总共 5 天，这
means you now lost another 50 cents on 意味着你现在在期权上又损失了 50 美分，
the option so if you lost a total of 所以如果你总共
basically a dollar 75 out of the 10 损失了 10 美元中的 75 美元，
which means that the value of your 这意味着 现在你
option now is worth 8 dollars and 25 的期权价值分别为 8 美元和 25
cents so this is how you can value the 美分，所以这就是你如何
value of your option so you make five 评估你的期权价值的方法，所以你
dollars on delta you lose a dollar 25 to 在 delta 上赚了 5 美元，你损失了 25 美元，因为
volatility crush you lose 50 cents to 波动性挤压你损失了 50 美分，因为
time decay you're left with 8.25 时间衰减 剩下 8.25，
so the net profit that you made on this 所以你在这次
particular trade was three dollars and 特定交易中获得的净利润是 3 美元
25 cents 25 美分，
so
the question is can you do the math on 所以问题是，
your own if you are trading an option on 如果你通过 uh 到 uh 收益交易期权，你能自己计算一下吗？
uh through through uh earnings and the
good point the good part about this is 关于这一点的部分
that you don't have to do the math um 是你不必做数学，
our platform does the math for you so 我们的平台会为你做数学所以
let's take a look at an example of this 让我们看一个例子
i'm going to look at amd for example amd 我将看看 amd 例如 amd
recently is starting to see some big 最近开始看到一些大的
moves here to the upside revisiting the 向上移动，重新回到
the recent all-time highs maybe this 最近的历史高点 也许这会
reports earnings next week and you want 报告下周的收益，你
to know how does this stock perform if i 想知道如果我想知道这只股票的
was to if i'm expecting the amd is going 表现如何，如果我预计 amd 会
to blow it out of the water here and 在这里把它从水里吹出来，
it's going to jump substantially on 它会在
earnings well you can use the p l 收益上大幅上涨，你可以使用
simulator within options play the p l 选项中的 pl 模拟器播放 pl
simulator 模拟器
and what we have are three triggers you ，我们拥有三个触发器，您
have the price you have the date and you 有价格，您有日期，您
have implied volatility those are the 有隐含波动率，这
three sliders that are actually going to 三个滑块实际上将为您
calculate delta 计算 delta
vega and theta for you and show you the vega 和 theta 并向您展示
impact of these three factors on the 影响 在这三个因素中
value of your option going into earnings ，您的期权价值会进入收益，
so let's say going into earnings i want 所以假设进入收益，我
to buy a november and you can structure 想购买 11 月的股票，您可以构建
any strategy that you want you don't 任何您想要的策略，而
have to use the ones that i'm looking at 不必使用我正在查看的策略，
but let's say you buy a november 120 但是 假设您购买了 11 月 120 日的
call the stock's currently trading at 看涨期权，该股目前的交易价格为
119 you buy an at the money call it cost 119 美元，您以现金买入，价值 5.45 美元
you 5.45
and what you want to do is you want to ，您想要做的是
say what happens if the stock jumps to 说如果股票在
135
a few days after earnings so earnings is 几天后跳至 135 135 会发生什么 宁所以收益是
on october 26 so if let's say on october 在 10 月 26 日所以如果让我们说 10 月
let's say november 2nd a week after 让我们说收益后一周的 11 月 2 日
earnings
the stock is at 135 and the current ，股票价格为 135，而当前的
implied volatility is of 40 percent 隐含波动率为 40%
now there isn't an exact science as to 现在没有
how much the implied volatility will 关于隐含波动率多少的精确科学 会
collapse by but generally speaking i'd 崩溃，但一般来说，我想
like to take
at least 10 to 20 off of the current 从当前的隐含波动率中至少减去 10 到 20，以便对
implied volatility to get a good sense 隐含波动率
for roughly what the implied volatility 的大致情况有一个很好
would look like so i'm gonna move it 的了解，所以我要把它
from 40 从 40
to 33 so about almost 20 percent of the 移到 33 左右
of the current implied volume i'm going 目前隐含交易量的近 20% 我
to take off and what this shows me 将起飞，这
is that the value of my option will 表明我的期权价值将
increase by 978 增加 978
or about 或大约
179 profit if i get the directional view 179 利润，如果我得到正确的方向观点
correct and the stock jumps to 135 并且股票跳到 135
by the november 2nd expiration i'm sorry 到 11 月 2 日到期，我很抱歉
by the november 2nd date and i factored 在 11 月 2 日之前，我
into the volatility crush of about a 将波动率压抑考虑到了
decline about seven percent here and j 大约 7% 的下降和 j
and you can use these sliders to see how ，您可以使用这些滑块来查看
time affects the value of your option as 时间如何影响您的期权价值
you can see you know on november 2nd 看 你知道在 11 月 2 日，
because i'm trading a november 19th 因为我在现在和到期日之间交易 11 月 19 日的
option between now and the expiration 期权，
date
there's some value that's going to get
lost
as i hold this to expiration and past 当我持有这个到期日并超过
the expiration date of 19th i'm not 19 日的到期日时，一些价值将会丢失，我
going to see anything any else changes 不会看到任何东西 其他
in terms of time because on november 时间会发生变化，因为在 11 月
19th that's when the value of my option 19 日，我的期权价值
is um
is done right and you can also see what 是正确的，您还可以看到
happens if volatility crash doesn't 如果波动率崩溃没有
happen how big of a difference does that 发生会发生什么，
have on the value of your option as you 这对您的期权价值有多大影响 正如您
can see currently at 40 i'll make a 目前所看到的，在 40
thousand dollar profit but if it goes 美元时，我将赚取 1000 美元的利润，但如果它
down to 33 i'll make 9 978 下降到 33 美元，我将赚取 9 978 美元，
so volatility crush has an effect on 因此波动率压抑对
your option but it's not 您的选择有影响，但影响不大，
huge um so it's important to understand 嗯，因此了解 vega 很重要
that the vega is going to change the 将
value of your option by a small amount 少量改变您的期权
theta is also going to change the value 价值 theta 也将少量改变
of your option by small amount what's 您的期权价值
not going to change the value of your 不会少量改变您的
option by a small amount is delta delta 期权价值的是 delta
has a huge effect on the value of your delta 对 哟的价值 你的
option because if the stock only moves 选择，因为如果这里的股票只
up to 130 上涨到 130
here that's the difference between a 500 ，那就是 500
profit and a thousand dollar profit so 美元的利润和 1000 美元的利润之间的差异，所以
you really have to understand roughly 你真的必须大致
how far you think the stock can move 了解你认为股票可以移动多远
what's a realistic move and that's 什么是现实的举动，
really where you can turn to the implied 这才是你真正可以转向的地方 到隐含
volatility option and we even have a 波动率选项，我们甚至有一个
trading range simulator that gives you a 交易范围模拟器，可以让您
sense for how far can the stock 了解股票
potentially move between now and the 在现在和到期日之间可能会移动多远，
expiration date so if i move it to the 因此如果我将其移动到
november 19th expiration date i'll see 11 月 19 日的到期日，我会看到
that the one standard deviation move is 那个 标准差变动是
133 dollars that is potentially a 133 美元，
reasonable target if i think the stock's 如果我认为该股
going to make a big move so if i think 将大幅变动，那么这可能是一个合理的目标，所以如果我认为
by 到
november 19th 11 月 19
november 19th the stock can move up to 日 11 月 19 日，该股可以上涨至
133 and the stock has some volatility 133 美元并且该股有一定的波动性，
crush this is probably a more realistic 这可能是一个
expectation as to what can happen
between now and expiration on a stock 关于像 amd 这样的股票从现在到到期之间会发生什么的更现实的期望
like amd and ，
i'm just using a simple call option to 我只是使用一个简单的看涨期权来
show you but you can use a debit spread 向您展示，但您可以使用您可以使用的借记利差
you can use a calendar a diagonal a 日历 对角线
credit spread you can do all of these 信用利差 您可以
things using our platform you can set up 使用我们的平台执行所有这些操作 您可以
different strategies side by side and 并排设置不同的策略，并
see how they perform in this in this 查看它们在这种
scenario that if the stock reaches 133 情况下的表现，如果股票
by the november 19th expiration and 在 11 月 19 日到期并且
volatility comes down what is your 波动性到来时达到 133 你的
expected profit what is your expected 预期利润是多少 你的预期
loss
the credit spread risks 542 the debit 损失是多少 信用利差风险 542 借方
spread the call option was 542 利差 看涨期权是 542
545 in the debit spread risk 713 and you 545 借方利差风险 713 你
can kind of see what happens if the 可以看看如果
stock moves higher how much do i 股票走高会发生什么我
potentially make what if it stays the 可能赚多少钱 如果它保持
same what if it moves lower how much am 不变会怎样 如果它走低
i risking these things are going to be 我要冒多少风险 这些事情
important for you to understand and it's 对您来说
just important to understand these three 很重要 理解这三个因素很重要
factors these three factors are going to 这三个因素将
change the value of your option around 改变您关于收益的选择权的价值
earnings and the big thing you really 你真正需要调整的最重要的事情
have to adjust for is that volatility 是波动性
crush um you know otherwise i think time 压碎，否则我认为
and price most traders are familiar with 大多数交易者都熟悉时间和价格，
but that volatility that's the component 但波动性就是
that i think is a little trickier so 我认为这个部分有点棘手，所以
hopefully this gives you an 希望这能让您
understanding as to how volatility 了解波动性如何
affects the value of your option so 影响您的期权价值，所以
let's now dive into 现在让我们深入研究
uh you know how do you go about 一下，您知道如何
researching an earnings announcement and 研究收益公告，
so this is really where we start with 所以这就是我们真正的地方 从
our earnings calendar because an 我们的收益日历开始，因为
earnings calendar can really help you 收益日历确实可以帮助
number one narrow down what symbols 您缩小
should you pay attention to so we have 应该关注的符号
an earnings calendar that you can find
on the options play platform when you go 的
to education and resources which takes
you to the options play hub and if you 范围 选项播放中心，如果
scroll down to the bottom of your screen 您向下滚动到屏幕底部，
there is an earnings calendar tab and if 则会有一个收益日历选项卡，如果
you click on the earnings calendar it's 您单击收益日历，
going to give you a view that looks like 它将为您提供一个如下所示的视图
this
and it might seem like a lot of things ，它可能看起来像很多
at first but it's really easy to 东西 首先，但很容易
understand you have your dates going 理解你的日期是
across right so chronologically you know 正确的，所以按时间顺序你
that today is the 20 uh the 21st this is 知道今天是 20 呃 21 日，
today so obviously anything that's 今天很明显任何事情
that's happened in the past doesn't 过去发生的事情并不
apply you're really looking at stuff 适用 你真的在看
that's that that are in the future so 那些在未来发生的事情 所以
for example i might look at the stuff 例如我可能会看
that's happening on the 22nd the 25th 22 日、25 日
the 26th those are really where i'm 和 26 日发生的事情 这些才是我真正
going to focus my attention on when it 要去的地方 当您进入下周和下周的赚钱季节时，将我的注意力集中在
comes to research now when you get into 现在进行研究的时候
the meat of earning season which is next
week and the week after
there's a lot of reports on a given day ，在某一天有很多报告，
it's hard to know out of the hundreds of 很难从数百个
symbols where do you focus your 符号中知道你在哪里 把你的
attention on and that's why we created 注意力集中在这就是为什么我们
this color-coded map for you it's color 为你创建了这个颜色编码的地图它是
coded based on liquidity so it's based 基于流动性的颜色编码所以它
on you have your dates up top so you 基于你把你的日期放在最上面所以你
know you know there's no need for me to 知道你知道我没有必要
look at these dates out here because 在这里查看这些日期，因为
these don't report until uh you know the 这些不会报告，直到你知道
following week i'm going to focus my 下周我将把我的
attention mostly on you know these here 注意力主要集中在你知道这些这里
maybe some of these and maybe some of 也许其中一些也许其中一些是
these that's where i'm going to focus my 我将
attention on researching and if you're 注意力集中在研究上的地方，如果你
really intent on researching you want to 真的很想重新 搜索您要
make sure that you narrow down your list 确保首先缩小列表的范围，
first so the first thing you want to 因此您想知道的第一件事
know is on what day does it report and 是它在哪一天报告以及
does it report before the market or 它是在市场之前还是
after the market so the ones that have 在市场之后报告，因此带有
the asterisk are the ones that report 星号的是那些
before the market opening which means 在开市前报告，这
that you have to have a position open 意味着你必须在前一天之前开仓
prior to the previous uh you know on ，嗯，你知道
during the previous day right so if ge 在前一天，所以如果 ge
reports on the morning of the 26th you 在 26 日早上报告，你
have to have an open position on the 必须在
25th before you can get exposure to that 25 日之前开仓 可以接触到该
earnings announcement so it's really 收益公告，因此
important to know what day they're 了解他们
reporting whether it's before a market a 报告的日期是在市场
before or after the ones with an 之前还是之后非常重要 带
asterisks are the ones that are before 星号的那些是在
the ones without the asterisks are the 没有星号之前的那些是在
ones that report after the close 之后报告的
next you want to look at liquidity so 接下来您要查看流动性，因此
everything that's highlighted in green 以绿色突出显示的所有内容
are what we consider very liquid symbols 都是我们认为非常流动的符号，
those are the ones that i predominantly 这些符号是我主要
spend my time researching especially in 花时间研究的符号，尤其是
the meat of earning season where there 收入季节的核心，那里
are plenty of liquid symbols there's 有很多流动的符号
just no need for us to dig that deep ，我们现在没有必要深入
into the less liquid symbols now as you 挖掘流动性较低的符号，因为你
get later and later into the earnings 越来越晚进入收入
season and there's fewer and fewer 季节，
reports if you're still trying to trade 如果你还在尝试，报告就会越来越少 为了交易
earnings season you may have to start 收益季节，您可能必须开始
looking into those secondary less liquid 研究那些次要的流动性较低的
symbols but during the meat of earnings 符号，但是在每天的收益季节期间，
season each day you can you have a 您可以拥有一个
finite list right so here i've narrowed 有限的列表，因此在这里我
down from the few hundred names that 从报告 26 的数百个名称中缩小了范围
report on the 26 to just in this 只是在这个
particular case about 25 names or so to 特殊情况下，大约有 25 个左右的名字，可以查看 25 个左右的名字
look at and out of the 25 maybe ，其中可能有
10 or 12 of them i'm familiar with and 10 个或 12 个我熟悉，
i'm you know i know i can dig into the 我知道我知道我可以深入
research and trade this is going to help 研究和交易这将是 帮助
me substantially narrow down the symbols 我大幅缩小
that i take a look at so the earnings 我查看的符号的范围，因此收益
calendar is always the first place i 日历始终
start all of my research with respect to 是我开始所有与
earnings 收益相关的研究的第一个地方，
once i have a specific symbol i want to 一旦我有一个特定的符号，我想
take a look at this is really where we 看看这就是我们真正的地方
start digging into it and i always tell 开始 深入研究，我总是告诉
traders the first thing you should look 交易员，你
at in an earnings announcement is an 在收益公告中应该首先
understanding as to how the company is 了解公司
doing in terms of trends for revenue and 在收入趋势和
in terms of earnings because those are 收益方面的表现，因为
the things that are being reported in 这些是报告中的内容
this particular quarter and it's good to 这个特定的季度，很高兴
know
how does the stock performing in 知道股票在
historical quarters so this is jpm jpm 历史季度的表现如何，所以这是
just recorded last month 上个月刚刚记录的 jpm jpm
and what might be surprising to most 可能令大多数
traders is that just the consistent 交易者感到惊讶的是，
downtrend we've seen in revenue decline 我们在收入下降
even prior to the pandemic so if you 之前看到的持续下降趋势 大流行所以如果你
look at prior to the pandemic we were 看看大流行之前我们
seeing revenue decline and this is only 看到收入下降，这只是
continued and what you know we have this 继续，你知道我们
research here now you can find these 现在在这里进行这项研究，你可以从几乎所有你可以访问的经纪公司中找到这些
types of charts and numbers from pretty 类型的图表和数字
much all of your brokerage firms you
have access to financial statements you 对于财务报表，您
have access to historical um charts that 可以访问历史嗯图表，这些图表
show you just a general trend 向您展示了一个总体
it's really important just to know is 趋势真正重要的是要
the company growing their revenues are 知道公司的收入是否在增长 ues
they growing their earnings because 他们是否增加了他们的收入，因为
those are the two primary things you
should be looking for if you think as 如果您认为
companies beating because they have a 公司
track record of performing well in terms 在
of growing their revenues or is a 增长，因为它们在增加收入方面表现良好，或者是
company you know in this particular case 您在这种特殊情况下了解的公司，那么这是您应该寻找的两个主要因素
like jp morgan they're actually making jp Morgan 他们实际上
less and less money in terms of revenue 在收入方面赚的钱越来越少，
but they're increasing their their their 但他们正在增加他们的
earnings 收入，
you know this really tells me that's 你知道这真的告诉我，
more coming from cutting expenses rather 更多的是来自削减开支而
than really growing their company and 不是真正发展他们的公司，
that's not particularly what i love 这并不是我特别喜欢
looking for going into an earnings 看的 进入收益
announcement so it's just important to 公告所以重要的是
you know at the end of the day you're 你知道在一天结束时
not going to be able to from this chart 你将无法从这张图表中
know how what a company is going to do 知道公司下个季度将如何做，
next quarter but it gives you some 但它为你提供了一些
overall 整体
context of how is the company performing 背景
from a from a financial perspective 从财务角度
perspective because that's what you're 来看，这家公司的表现如何，因为这
guessing right you're guessing whether 就是你猜对的，你在猜测
the company has a good shot of of 这家公司是否有好的机会
beating earnings or not now jp morgan 无论是否超过收益，您都知道摩根大通
you know as you can see
struggled for a few quarters but really
started to accelerate their earnings
over the past three quarters and i 在过去的三个季度中挣扎了几个季度，但在过去三个季度中真正开始加速他们的收益，我
usually look at trailing 12 months i 通常会查看过去 12 个月的情况，我
usually don't look at individual 通常不会查看单个
quarters because there's a lot of noise 季度，因为有
going from one quarter to the next 从一个季度到下一个季度会有很多噪音，
quarter so when you look at trailing 12 所以当你看到过去 12
months what you're looking at is a 个月时，你看到的
summary of last four quarters so when i 是过去四个季度的总结，所以
see that that whoops when i see that jp 当我看到
morgan has made 128 billion dollars 摩根大通赚了 1280 亿美元时，那真是太棒了 美元
that's referring to making 128 billion 是指过去四个季度赚了 1280 亿美元
over the last four quarters combined ，
this
filters out some of the seasonality if 如果
you see someone especially the consumer 您看到有人，尤其是与消费者
related stocks they made most of their 相关的股票，他们
profits in that last quarter during 在上个季度在圣诞节期间赚取了大部分利润，并且赚得
christmas season and they don't make a 不多，那么这会过滤掉一些季节性因素
lot of money in q1 so when you when you 第一季度的资金，所以当你
see those big jumps and from quarter 看到那些大的跳跃和一个季度一个
over quarter it's hard to really get a 季度的增长时，很难真正
sense for whether a company is trending 了解一家公司
in the right direction or not so that's 是否朝着正确的方向发展 所以这就是
why i use trailing 12 months trailing 12 为什么我使用追踪 12 个月追踪 12
months 个月
um
smooths out that seasonality um um 消除
across certain sectors so you know many 了某些
sectors you just have that seasonality 部门的季节性
where a company books most of their
profits in a specific quarter um and by
using trailing 12 months you're you're 你是不是在
um smoothing out that um so what i'm 抹平那个嗯所以我
really seeing is just an overall trend 真正看到的只是一个整体趋势，
even though individual quarters they may 即使个别季度之间可能
have quite a bit of noise in between and 会有相当多的噪音，而且
earnings also earnings is extremely 收益也非常
noisy and the best way to kind of 嘈杂，是最好的方式
cancel out that noise to some degree or 在某种程度上消除这种噪音或消除
smooth it out is by looking at trailing 噪音是通过查看过去
12 months how much money did the company 12 个月该
make in the last 12 months and what does 公司在过去 12 个月赚了多少钱，以及
that compare to the previous 12 months 与前 12 个月
are they consistently growing that and 相比，它们是否一直在增长，
jp morgan is consistently growing 摩根大通一直在增长 增长的
earnings which arguably between the two 收益可以说是两个
numbers is the more important number 数字之间的更重要的数字
profit is more important than revenue 利润比收入更重要，
but i generally don't like to see a 但我通常不喜欢看到一家
company that's generating more and more 公司产生更多的收益
profits with declining revenue because 在收入下降的情况下获得更多利润，因为
that tells me that the company is doing 这告诉我公司做错了
something wrong that their revenues are 什么，他们的收入正在
declining but their revenue but they're 下降，但他们的收入但他们
still able to manufacture earnings those 仍然能够制造收益，
are really more what i would consider 这些实际上更多的是我
manufactured earnings that can go on for 认为可以持续
quite some time but at some point 相当长的制造收益 有一段时间，但在某些时候
there's a limit as to how much you can ，您可以赚取多少收入是有限制的，
manufacture earnings does that make
sense please type three into the chat
window if that makes sense to you 如果这对您有意义，请在聊天窗口中输入三个
perfect so again first and foremost 完美所以再次首先
understanding the fundamentals 了解基本面，
then you can look at kind of what the 然后您可以看看
expectations are for this upcoming 对即将到来的季度的期望是什么，
quarter right because this so far when 因为到目前为止，当
you look at charts like this this is 您查看这样的图表时，这
just historical analysis understanding 只是历史分析，了解
what's happened in the past it's also 过去发生的事情，
important to understand what are 了解分析师的期望是什么也很重要，
analysts expectations uh going to be and 嗯，
you know you there's plenty of resources 您知道有很多 这方面的
for this as well pretty much every 资源以及几乎
single brokerage firm for some kind of 每个经纪公司都提供的某种
research portal that gives you an 研究门户网站 您是否
understanding of what the analyst's 了解分析师的
expectations are i use a platform called 期望我使用了一个名为 estimize 的平台
estimize which ，
gives me access not only to the wall 它不仅使我能够获得
street consensus which is what the
analysts are expecting but also a a 分析师所期望的华尔街共识，而且还
consensus across the users of the 获得了
estimized platform of which anyone can 任何人都可以加入的估算平台用户的共识
join this platform submit their 这个平台提交了他们
expectations for the quarter whether 对本季度的预期，无论
they think the stock's going to beat or 他们认为股票会上涨还是
miss and they it it basically takes into 下跌，它基本上考虑了
account all of those views and gives you 所有这些观点，并让
a sense for whether a company perhaps 您了解一家公司是否
may be beating uh or missing and 可能会上涨或下跌，
generally speaking what we're most 一般来说是什么 我们最
interested in is not necessarily the 感兴趣的不一定是
estimate itself but we're interested in 估计本身，但我们感兴趣
how that estimate has changed over time 的是估计随着时间的推移如何变化
we tend to see that when there's a lot 我们倾向于看到，当收益公告中有
of upward revisions going into an 很多向上修正时
earnings announcement there's a higher
chance that the stock is going to beat ，股票的可能性更高
earnings when there's an estimate when 当有大量估计修正下行时，将超过收益，
there are plenty of estimate revisions
to the downside so maybe the you know we 所以也许你知道我们开始了
started off expecting that the company d off 期望
was going to make 80 cents but you know 公司将赚 80 美分，但你知道
over the past few weeks that's now 在过去的几周里，现在
declined to 73 cents that's not a good 下降到 73 美分，这不是一个好
sign or vice versa if the company if 兆头，反之亦然，如果公司
everyone expected that they're going to 每个人都预计他们会
make 66 cents but now over the past few 赚 66 美分，但是 现在在过去的
weeks that's now increased to 73 cents 几周里，现在已经增加到 73 美分
that's a good sign so estimate revisions ，这是一个好兆头，所以估计修正
are important
factor in determining whether a stock 是决定一只股票是否
potentially is going to beat or miss and 可能会上涨或失败的重要因素，并且
there's been a lot of empirical research
on this front to show that estimate 在这方面有很多实证研究来表明估计
estimate revisions heading into an 估计 收益公告的修订，
earnings announcement especially in the 尤其是在
last couple of weeks is many times a 过去几周内，很多时候是一个
very good predictor of whether a company 很好的预测指标，可以很好地预测一家公司是否
may beat or miss on a specific earnings 可能会超过或错过特定的收益
announcement 公告，
then you know so so that's kind of the 那么您就知道了，所以这就是
fundamental factors right and those are 基本因素，这些都是
at the end of the day these are more 在 归根结底，这些更像是
art than science if you will it's really 艺术而不是科学，如果您愿意的话，这实际上
just having a sense for how a company 只是了解公司
has been doing and what your 的运作方式以及您
expectations are going forward 对未来的期望
and there's not a lot of data behind 这背后没有很多数据
that but when you look at the stock ，但是当您查看股票
chart 图表时
that's effectively the entire market ，实际上整个市场
weighing in what their thoughts are 都在权衡他们
going into an earnings announcement and 对收益
there's quite a bit of information that 公告的想法，并且
you can kind of gather from that with 您可以从中收集到相当多的信息
from looking just at the chart itself 只看图表本身
and what you know and what's more 以及你所知道的以及
important for me is not unless so is 对我来说更重要的不是，除非
less so the chart itself but relative to 图表本身不那么重要，而是相
the sector and relative to the market 对于行业和相对于市场而言
that is really kind of what i ，这确实是我
predominantly look for going into an 主要寻找的
earnings announcement i have two charts 收益 公告 我有两张图表
here are two semiconductor stocks i have 这里有两只半导体股票
texas instruments and i have amd i'm 我有德州仪器 我有
going to show you both 我要向你们展示这两个
and
what you're going to see here is that 你将在这里看到
texas instruments recently made a new 德州仪器最近创下
all-time high uh the last high was two 历史新高 呃上次 高
of basically just shy of 201 and we 点基本上是 201 的两个，我们
recently today just 最近今天刚刚
pierced above that to 201 19. so today 突破到 201 19。所以今天
texas instruments made a new all-time 德州仪器创下了
high so higher high in price but what i 历史新高，因此价格更高，但我
have here is a chart of texas 在这里拥有的是
instruments relative to the s p 500 and 德州仪器相对于 sp 500 的图表以及
relative to the technology sector you 相对于技术行业的图表，您
can use sector you can use semiconductor 可以使用行业您可以使用半导体
industry 行业，
if you want to get more granular but the 如果您想获得更详细的信息，但
important thing to me is the fact that 对我来说重要的是，
as texas instruments made a new high 随着德州仪器创下新
it failed to make a new high relative to 高 未能创出相对于市场的
the market
and failed to make a new high relative 新高，也未能创出相对于其行业的新高
to its sector what this is telling me is 这告诉我的是
that despite the fact that the stock ，尽管该股票
made a new recent high over the past 在过去一个月左右创下了近期新高，但
month or so
it's actually underperforming the market 它实际上表现不佳
and underperforming its sector so 并且表现不佳，所以
imagine if you're a portfolio manager 想象一下，如果你是一名投资组合经理，你的投资组合中
you have hundreds of stocks in your 有数百只
portfolio and here's a stock that can't 股票，这是一只跟不上市场的股票，
keep up with the market they can't keep 他们
up with its sector 跟不上它的行业，
think about you know is this a stock 想想你知道这是一个
that you think you're going to keep
around in your portfolio for a long long
time if the stock continues to 如果股票继续
underperform its sector and its market 跑输其行业和市场，
especially going into an earnings 尤其是在
announcement 发布收益公告时，您认为您将在投资组合中长期保留的股票，
this is really some of the information 这是真实的
that i think is most important to look 我认为对于收益公告最重要的一些信息，
at going into an earnings announcement
how is it performing relative to the 它相对于市场的表现如何，
market because stocks that are 因为股票
underperforming the market why should i 表现不佳，为什么我
keep texas instruments that's gonna give 要保留德州工具，这将使
me a one percent gain over the last 我比
month if the market is up four or five 上个月，如果市场在那个月上涨了 4% 或 5
percent over that month or the %，或者
technology sector that it's part of is 它所属的科技板块
up for five percent and this is really 上涨了 5%，这
where you have to think about how 就是你真正需要考虑的
institutional money managers think they 机构资金经理如何
only want to own stocks that are 认为他们只想拥有
outperforming the market because that's 跑赢市场，因为那
what they are paid to do they're they're 是他们得到报酬的原因 他们是
paid to outperform the market and stocks 为了跑赢大市而付出代价
that don't outperform the market those
are not the ones that are going to be in
favor conversely if we look at amd
another semiconductor stock we see 的 半导体股票我们
similar price action in terms of amd 看到类似的价格走势，AMD
recently making a higher high but what 最近创出更高的高位，但
you see here is over the past couple of 您在这里看到的是过去
weeks amd has outperformed the market 几周 amd 的表现优于
and has outperformed its sector so this 市场 d 的表现优于其行业，因此这
is a stock 是一只
that performing well and not only 表现良好的股票，不仅
performing well performing well relative 表现良好，而且相
to the other stocks that i own in my 对于我在我的
portfolio or the other stocks that i 投资组合中拥有的其他股票或
have in my uh in my asset management 我在我的资产管理
company right think blackrock think all 公司中拥有的其他股票而言表现良好，对吧 think blackrock think
of these major firms that have made the 所有这些管理着
billions of dollars of under billions of 数十亿
dollars of assets under management they 美元资产的大型公司都
have hundreds of stocks in their 在他们的投资组合中拥有数百只股票
portfolio
what are they more likely to hold going 他们更有可能持有
into earnings a stock that's 什么股票才能盈利 一只股票的
outperforming the rest of their holdings 表现优于其持有的其余股票
or a stock that's underperforming the 或 股票表现逊于
rest of their holdings and this is 他们持有的其他股票，
something that i that i look for almost 这是我现在几乎
in every single one of my 在我的每一个
earnings place now this does not mean 收益地方都在寻找的东西，这并不
that the market is going that it's going 意味着市场
to outperform uh the uh it's going to 会跑赢呃呃它会
beat estimates and it doesn't 超过预期 这
necessarily even mean that when the 甚至并不一定意味着，
stock if the stock does beat estimates 如果股票确实超过预期，
then it's going to rise because 那么它就会上涨，因为
sometimes we see stocks beat estimates 有时我们会看到股票超过 es 时间
and the stock declines right so this is 和股票下跌的权利所以这
really some of the 真的是一些
science and the art if you will that 科学和艺术，如果你愿意，
you're playing with 你
at the end of the day you don't have a 在一天结束的时候玩，你没有
crystal ball but these are the different 水晶球，但这些
things that you can look for to 是你可以看的不同的东西 因为
hopefully help stack the cards in your 希望能帮助你把牌
favor the more of these things you can
stack in your favor the higher the 叠起来
probability you'll be able to get the
directional view right so looking at
relative strength to the market and
sector is really looking at what is the
market telling you about this particular 市场会告诉您有关这只特定
stock and their chances of beating 股票的信息以及它们超过收益的机会，
earnings because you're likely going to 因为您可能会
see more buyers of stocks that they that 看到更多的买家购买
the market thinks is going to beat and 了市场认为会击败
less likely buying of stock that that 的股票，而购买市场认为会击败的股票的可能性较小
the market thinks is not going to be and 不会，
here's a prime example of texas 这里是
instruments versus amd two semiconductor 德州仪器与 amd 两只半导体
stocks that are both reporting next week 股票的主要例子，它们都在下周报告
clear difference in terms of price 价格表现方面的明显差异，
performance telling you something about 告诉您
how the market is expecting these two 有关 m arket 预计这两只
stocks to play out 股票会发挥作用，
keep in mind the markets are wrong 请记住，市场有时是错误
sometimes right and that's why we see 的，这就是为什么当市场出错时，我们会看到
big moves in the underlying stock when 基础股票的大幅波动，
the stock when the market gets it wrong
because the market effectively mispriced 因为市场实际上错误地定价
what is going to happen but that is how 了将要发生的事情，但是 是
you can you can try to get some 您如何尝试
information from what is the market 从市场
thinking going into an earnings 对收益公告的想法中获取一些信息
announcement does that make sense please 是否有意义，请
type 4 into the chat window if that 在聊天窗口中输入 4 如果这
makes sense to you 对您有意义
and lastly i cannot help but ，最后我无法帮助
and i i i can't stress this enough um ，iii 不能 强调这一点，嗯
and i say this across you know whether ，我这么说，你知道你是否
you're trading earnings whether you're 在交易收益，无论你
not trading earnings just investing in 不是在交易收益，只是投资于
different stocks 不同的股票，
understand what a company does 了解公司从根本上做什么，
fundamentally never trade a stock never 从不交易股票，从不
invest in a stock never 投资股票，从不
buy an option on a stock if you don't 购买期权 股票，如果你不
know what the company does 知道这家公司做什么，
um 嗯，
you know and you know you all trade at 你知道，你知道你都在
brokerage firms that provide you with 为你提供
research use that research if you're 研究的经纪公司交易，如果你
going to buy a stock if you're going to 打算购买，请使用该研究 如果你打算
buy an option on a stock at least know 购买股票期权，至少
what it does 知道它的作用，
because that that can sometimes just 因为这有时
give you that that conviction of whether 会让你确信
this is the stock that's right for your 这是否适合你的投资组合的股票，
portfolio or maybe you know you know you 或者你知道你知道你
might have read something somewhere 可能拥有 在某个地方读一些东西
where you just think that you know hey ，你只是认为你知道嘿，
this is not the type of company that i 这不是我
think is going to do very well in this 认为在这种环境下会做得很好的公司类型
environment and sometimes that comes ，有时这
down to gut feel but if you don't have 归结为直觉，但如果你没有
this information you're never going to 这些信息，你就是 永远
be able to make that decision right so 无法做出正确的决定，所以
you see a company like amd where you 你会看到像 amd 这样的公司，在那里你
might see more and more of their chips 可能会看到越来越多的个人电脑芯片
in in pcs you see that they're mostly in ，你会看到它们主要用于
server and cloud chips and they're 服务器和云芯片，并且他们正在
making bigger bigger market share and 创造更大的市场 共享和
cloud cloud um computing and you know 云计算，你
that cloud computing is extremely strong 知道云计算非常强大，
because maybe you're invested in 因为也许你投资了
microsoft and amazon and 微软、亚马逊和
and
salesforce and you know that amd is one salesforce，你知道 amd 是其中
of the you know the the chips that power 之一，你知道为所有这些提供动力的芯片
all of that you're more likely to have 更有可能
some conviction behind this versus when 在这背后有一些信念，而不是当
you look at texas instruments they don't 您查看 texas 仪器时，他们不
make any of those types of chips they 制造任何这些类型的芯片 他们
make very low processes low processing 制造非常低的流程 低处理
type chips and there's demand for that 类型的芯片 并且
as well but you know this also helps you 对此也有需求，但您知道这也有助于
just understand why you are bullish 您 了解为什么你
about a specific stock or why you think 看好某只股票，或者为什么你认为
a stock may have a chance of 一只股票可能有机会
outperforming the rest of their peers 超越其他同行
and the only way you can make that ，唯一的方法
conviction or make that guess if you
will is by understanding what the 就是了解
company does so i encourage you to read 公司的行为 我鼓励您阅读
this research it's available to you by 这项研究，
pretty much all of the major broker
terms whether you get it from cfra or s 无论您是从 cfra 或 sp 或morningstar 获得的，几乎所有主要的经纪商条款都提供给您，
p or morningstar or you know there's a 或者您知道有
variety of research firms that provide 各种研究公司提供
this type of content that are available 此类内容
to you for free from your broker terms 可供您使用 从您的经纪人条款中免费
read that stuff it's going to help you 阅读这些内容，
become a better investor overall if you 如果您
do understand what the company actually 确实了解公司的实际
does you know especially in these high 情况，那么它会帮助您成为更好的投资者，尤其是在这些高 h
growth tech startups i see a lot of 成长型科技初创公司 我看到很多
traders trade or invest in stocks they 交易者交易或投资股票，
have no idea what the product is 他们不知道产品是什么，
and that's really kind of a disservice
in my opinion to invest or trade in 在我看来，投资或交易
stuff that you don't know what they do 你不知道他们用什么做的东西真的是一种伤害
so with that
um hopefully i'll be able to show you 嗯，希望我能在
just one more example here and i'll go 这里再给你看一个例子，我会
back to texas instruments so if i'm 回到德州仪器，所以如果我在
looking at texas instruments and i see 看德州仪器，我
how it's underperforming the broader 看到它在这里的表现如何低于更广泛的
markets here this is really where i 市场，这真的是我
might be looking at a stock like texas 可能的地方 看着像德州仪器
instruments
and
look at this particular stock and maybe 这样的股票，看看这只特定的股票，也许会
say you know i don't think the stock is 说你知道我认为这只股票
going to
to beat earnings i think it was going to 不会超过收益 我认为它
be more modest um and 会更加温和，
we all saw what happened with um 我们都看到了发生的事情
ibm here last week um so ibm 上周在这里，所以
or yesterday rather maybe you want to 或昨天，也许你想在
take a more neutral view here you might 这里采取更中立的观点，你可能
want to sell a credit spread or 想出售信用利差或
something like that and you can use this 类似的东西，你可以再次使用这个
tool again to 工具来
take a look at buying a put versus 看看购买看跌期权与
selling a credit spread versus buying a 出售信用证 点差与购买
debit spread anticipating what the de 位价差
potential moves could be using the 使用
trading range simulator you can simulate 您可以
based on the november 19th expiration 根据 11 月 19 日
the downside move the expected move is 到期模拟的交易区间模拟器预测潜在变动 下行变动 预期变动
about 187 and a half and you can use 约为 187 个半，您可以将
those as potential targets meaning if 这些用作潜在目标，这意味着如果
you'd think that the stock's going to 您认为 股票将
reach 175 guess what that's not likely 达到 175 猜猜这不太
to happen at least not by the november 可能发生，至少不会在 11 月
19th expiration uh more realistic was 19 日到期 呃更现实的
that 187 and a half that's more 是 187 半是更
realistic expectations so don't go 现实的期望 所以不要
moving this stuff down here and saying 把这些东西移到这里说
oh i know i can make 159 return yes 哦，我知道我 可以得到 159 的回报 是的
that's possible but not very likely a ，这是可能的，但可能性不大
far more likely outcome is something
like this where you make a 67 return and
you might say to yourself well this
vertical spread here makes a 94 return
so this is how you can use this tool
plug in your potential outcomes uh 插入你的潜在结果，
especially most importantly account for 尤其是最重要的是考虑到
volatility crush account for the fact 波动率压低考虑
that that stock is going to decrease in 到该股票的
value in terms of the implied volatility 价值将在隐含波动率方面下降 ity
option and that's going to help you 选项，这将帮助您
become a much better 成为更好
trader around earnings because you will 的收益交易者，因为您将对收益
have a much better understanding as to 如何影响您的期权价值有更好的理解，
how the value of your option will be
affected by earnings so with that that 因此这
covers what i wanted to share with you 涵盖了我今天想在这里与您分享的内容
here today i hope that this was helpful 我希望这
in giving you a better understanding as 有助于让您更好地
to trading earnings and how the process 了解交易收益以及我
that i go through the checklist that i
go through uh in in determining whether 如何通过清单的过程来确定
i think the stock is going to 我是否认为股票
potentially beat or miss on earnings and 可能会超过或低于收益，
i want to thank our members for uh 我 想感谢我们的会员
supporting us and allowing us to 支持我们并允许我们继续
continue to put out this type of
research and education for everyone to 为每个人提供这种类型的研究和教育，以
learn more about options and trading 了解有关期权和交易期权的更多信息，
options so if you want to sign up for a 因此如果您想注册
free 30-day trial for everything that 30 天免费试用
our members have access to you can do so 我们的会员可以
at 在
optionsplay.com you'll get access to our optionsplay.com 上与您联系 您可以访问我们的
daily trading signals you'll get a free 每日交易信号 您将获得
30-day trial to the full platform that i 我今天在这里向您展示的完整平台的 30 天免费试用
showed you here today so that you can 您可以
analyze these trades based on that 根据
implied volatility crush and you're 隐含波动率压抑分析这些交易，并且您
going to be able to join us every single 将能够在每个
thursday for these options education 星期四参加这些期权教育
sessions so with that i'm going to open 课程，因此我将
this up for q a here at the 在此处为 qa 开放
there is both a chat window and a q a 聊天窗口和 aqa
section if you want to type your 部分如果你想
questions in the q a section i'll try to 在 qa 部分输入你的问题，我会尝试
answer any questions you might have 回答你可能有的任何问题，
before i jump here for today 然后我今天跳到这里
uh 呃
jacques is saying a company has jumped 雅克说一家公司
10 since its earnings beat as of 自昨天的收益超过以来已经上涨了 10
yesterday i'll be honest i haven't taken 老实说，我
a look at that earnings announcement so 没有看过那份收益公告，所以
i cannot really comment on that 我无法真正评论那个
um 嗯
[Music] [音乐]
just did a debit spread on jpm lasted 只是在 jpm 上的借记利差持续
two days before earnings worked out okay 了两天，然后收益才算出来，
thank you for sharing that ken 谢谢您分享 ken
um um
netflix before trade was actually netflix 在今天交易实际上
profitable today that's that's correct 有利可图之前，这是正确的，
um maybe some of you held on to that 也许你们中的一些人坚持那只
butterfly but i did not expect 蝴蝶，但我没想到
netflix to jump after you know what was netflix 在你知道什么
a strong earnings announcement the stock 是强劲的收益公告后会跳涨股票
just did not react well to that earnings 只是对此反应不佳 收益
announcement even though it's a strong 公告尽管这是一个强劲的
earnings announcement the stock jumped 收益公告，但今天的股票大幅上涨
substantially here today i hope some of ，我希望
you were able to hold on to it and maybe 你们中的一些人能够坚持下去，并
take a profit on that um you know we 从中
were up about 50
uh earlier today on that butterfly
uh ken is saying where do you find 获利 是说你在哪里可以
charts for relative strength to sectors 找到行业相对强度的图表，
so ken currently you know i can suggest 所以现在你知道我可以建议
using stockcharts.com it's it is a free 使用 stockcharts.com 它是
resource that anyone can have access to 任何人都可以访问的免费资源
and you can put on relative charts on ，你可以在 stockcharts.com 上放置相关图表，
stockcharts.com
so that is one resource that i can point 所以 我可以向您指出一个资源，
you to but we are working on integrating 但我们正在努力
relative charts on our platform as well 在我们的平台上整合相关图表，
will you do a class on how to read 您是否会开设一门关于如何阅读财务报表的课程，
financial statements to know what is 以了解什么是
important what is not so you know rich 重要的，什么是不重要的，以便您了解
the richers i will say that 富人，我会说
you can really drive yourself nuts 你真的可以在
trying to read financial statements um 试图阅读财务报表时让自己
i'm not a huge fan of going too deep 发疯，嗯，我不喜欢深入
into the financial statements as you can 了解财务报表，
see when you look at trailing 12-month 当你查看过去 12 个月的
revenue and trailing 12-month eps what i 收入和 tr 时，你会看到 生病的 12 个月每股收益 我所
look at is what is the overall trend 看到的是
over the last eight quarters and what is 过去八个季度的总体趋势是什么
the trend over the last three quarters ，过去三个季度的趋势
that's what these two uh the the blue 是什么 这就是这两个呃蓝
line and the yellow line tell us it 线和黄线告诉我们它
tells us what has happened over the last 告诉我们什么 过去
eight quarters what is the general trend 八个季度发生了什么大趋势
and has the recent trend been better or ，最近的趋势是好
worse so as you can see on from a 是坏，所以从收入的角度来看，您可以看到
revenue perspective
the company basically has a decline on 公司基本上每个季度
average of about one point three seven 平均下降约百分之三七，
percent every single quarter uh every 呃每个
every single 12 months 每 12 个月，
period when you roll that forward one 当你向前推进一个
quarter jp morgan's um 季度时，摩根大通的
revenue has declined by an average of 收入在过去三个季度中平均
about 1.37 percent per quarter over the 每季度下降约 1.37%
past three quarters has declined by 1.6 下降了 1.6，
so from my perspective nothing has 所以从我的角度来看，最近从收入的角度来看，并没有
really changed from a revenue 真正改变
perspective
recent past versus what's averaged over 与
the last eight quarters on the earnings 过去八个季度的平均收益相比，
side you've seen a small acceleration in 您看到收益略有加速
terms of earnings they've grown earnings ，他们的
on average about nine point two percent 收益平均增长了大约九个
per quarter uh in the last three 在过去的三个季度中，每季度 2% 呃
quarters they've accelerated that to 他们已经加速到
about 12.73 that's more meaningful but 大约 12.73，这更有意义，但
like i said you know what's most really 就像我说的，你知道
more important is the overall trend 最重要的是整体
revenues trending in the wrong direction 趋势收入朝着错误的方向发展
earnings is trending in the right 收益朝着正确的
direction that can't go on for too long 方向发展 这不能持续太久，
because you can't just make more and 因为你不能只用
more profits on less and less revenue 越来越少的收入赚取越来越多的利润
you can get more efficient you can 你可以提高效率你可以
decrease expenses those are those are 减少开支这些
legitimate things for a company to do 是公司做的合法的事情
and those are good things but you really ，这些都是好事 但是你真的
need to start to see this this revenue 需要开始看到这个收入
start to pick up or at least plateau um 开始回升或者至少
and because those because there are 是稳定的，因为有
plenty of companies that are increasing 很多公司正在增加
their revenues and earnings those are 他们的收入和收益，这些公司
ones that are going to be more 将更具
attractive so those are the primary 吸引力，所以这些是
things that i look for 我要寻找的主要内容
yes we do have a recording of this 是的，我们确实有本次
webinar and you'll be able to receive 网络研讨会的录音，我们今天在这里结束后，您将能够
both the slides and the reporting after 收到幻灯片和报告，
we finish here today
um you know someone talked about snap 嗯，你知道 有人谈到过快速
earnings down you know one of the things 收益下降
that you can look at for snap if i'm not ，如果我没记错的话，您可以查看快速收益之一，
mistaken when i looked at snap earlier 如果我之前看快速收益
um
it it was underperforming you know the ，它表现不佳您了解
market you know that's one of the things 市场，您知道这
that we did see in snapchat uh you know 是我们所做的事情之一 看看 snapchat 呃你知道
if we look at snap relative you know 如果我们看 snap 相对你知道
it's it's making sideways and then 它正在横盘整理然后
relative to the market it was a little 相对于市场它
bit down this you know we haven't seen 有点下降这个你知道我们没有看到
any real outperformance of snap relative 任何真正的 snap 相
to its uh to the market and relative to 对于它的市场表现 并且相对于
the sector 该行业，
so both snap as you can see flat 因此两者都会突然出现，因为您可以看到
relative to the stock relative to a 相对于相对于某个行业的股票而言，
sector there's really not there wasn't a 实际上并没有
lot of information going to snap to 很多信息会真正
really
make that judgment call 做出判断，呼叫
revenue is what they make and earnings 收入就是他们的收入，而收益
is what they profited from that so if 就是什么 他们从中获利，所以如果
you make a dollar and you're able to 你赚了 1 美元并且你能够从中
make a 50 profit from that um you know 赚取 50 美元的利润，那么你知道
minus expenses so revenue is how much 减去费用，所以收入就是
you brought in minus expenses is your 你带来的收入减去费用就是你的
overall profit um and that is a very 整体利润，这是一个非常
oversimplified 简单的说法
uh way to think about the markets um to 呃考虑市场的方式呃
be honest 说实话
uh thoughts on costco costco has moved 呃对costco的想法costco已经
substantially higher here i think it's 大幅走高了我认为是
time to cut losses on costco 时候减少costco的损失
we will be sending out an alert on that 我们将很快发出警报
very shortly
how about some stocks that historically 关于一些历史上以前上涨的股票如何
run up before earnings so you do have to 收益，
factor that in right when you look at 所以当您查看 amd 时，您确实必须将其考虑
amd it's made a very big run going into 在内，它的收益非常大
earnings and you might factor that in ，您可能会考虑到这一点，
and say it's made such a big run i think 并说它的收益如此之大，我认为
there's a limit as to how much higher it 它可以提高多少
can go so that might be where you're 所以这可能是你
more inclined to sell options rather 更倾向于卖出期权而
than buy options going into earnings 不是买入期权的地方，
just because you know you're concerned 因为你知道你
about how much higher the stock can go 担心股票可以上涨多少，
rather than buying options where the 而不是购买
stock needs to make a bigger move to 股票需要采取更大行动的期权
break even so yes you do have to take 收支平衡所以是的，你必须考虑
that into account
what do you think about low delta
strangles prior to earnings so richard 到在收益之前你对低 delta 扼杀的看法如此理查德
there's a lot of traders that will trade 有很多交易者会交易
low delta strangles there's a high 低 delta 扼杀有很高
amount of risk in that 的风险我
but it is a trade where you have 但这是一项交易，在这种交易中，您
effectively quadruple 实际上有四重
factors working in your favor because 因素对您有利，因为
you have the volatility crush and the
time decay on both sides and as long as 双方都受到波动性挤压和时间衰减，
the stock makes a big it doesn't make a 只要股票大涨，您就不会发生
big move you'll be profitable 大的变动 盈利，
um it's just a risky strategy but you do 嗯，这只是一个冒险的策略，但你确实
have a lot of things working in your 有很多事情对你
favor
uh dividend announcements affect option
strategies um generally speaking they
don't unless they pay a really fat
dividend from a dollar perspective less
so from a percentage perspective because 有利 因为
you do have a lot higher risk of early 你确实有更高的风险
assignment on certain strategies 在某些策略上提前分配，
but generally speaking dividends are not 但一般来说
as
um
as
as important for for traders as options ，对于交易者来说，股息并不像期权那么重要，
as earnings are 因为收益是
julie's asking what do you consider low 朱莉问你认为低
implied volatility um you know implied 隐含波动率是什么，你知道隐含
volatility is a relative term 波动率是一个相对的 术语，
so 30 might be relatively high for a 所以 30 对于像 walmart 或 um uh 这样的股票来说可能相对较高，
stock like walmart or
um uh you know i don't know ge uh but 你知道我不知道 ge uh
then when you look at stocks like 但是当你看像
snapchat or twitter or snapchat 或 twitter 或
i don't know um 我这样的股票时 不知道嗯，
even a tesla you know 30 is on the low 即使是特斯拉，你知道 30 处于
end so 低端，所以
um
you want to look at how the implied 你想看看隐含
volatility option is relative to itself 波动率期权是如何相对于自身的，
you don't want to compare the implied 你不想将
volatility of one option to the implied 一个期权的隐含波动率与隐含
volatility of another stock those are 波动率进行比较 另一只股票，那些评级
not rate great comparisons you only want 不是很好的比较 你
to compare an implied volatility of an 只想比较一个期权的隐含波动率
option relative to its own history 相对于它自己的历史
as implied volatility an estimate no it 作为隐含波动率 一个估计 不是这
is an exact calculation it's an exact 是一个精确的计算 这是一个
calculation based on the based on the 基于
the
price of the option 期权价格的精确计算
uh the market price is each option right 呃，市场价格是每个期权的正确
just the same way that the market prices 方式，就像市场
the stock all the buyers and sellers you 对股票定价
know once you account for all the orders
in there
the last recorded price is what the
value of the option is right so
an option has a price and that price is 的方式一样 有一个价格，这个价格是
arrived at by all the buyers and the 由所有
sellers coming into the marketplace and 进入市场的买家和卖家
finding that natural equilibrium if you 得出的，如果你愿意的话，就会找到自然均衡，
will so the implied volatility is just 所以隐含波动率只是
calculated off of that price 根据这个计算出来的 定价
how many trades do you think we should 你认为我们
play into earning session so i mean that 应该在盈利时段进行多少交易 所以我的意思是这
really depends on how much risk you're 真的取决于你
going to take you know i generally think 要承担多少风险 你知道我通常
that you know maybe two to three a day 认为你每天可能知道两到三
um you know especially if you're closing 笔你知道，尤其是如果你知道
out each trade after earnings after each 在每次盈利后重新平仓每笔交易
earnings you can trade two three four 你可以
five trades two three trades a day i 交易两三四五笔交易每天两三笔我
think it's probably reasonable for most 认为对于大多数
traders
thinking of earnings next week would you 考虑下周盈利的交易
caller amd with an expiration just past 者来说
the earnings announcement or with the 30 这可能是合理的 30
day expiration generally speaking i like 天到期一般来说，我喜欢
to go out about 30 days 在到期后 30 天左右出去，
past expiration you should never use the 你永远不应该
expiration just past the earnings 在收益公告后使用到期
announcement that's a great question ，这是一个很好的问题，
david 大卫
where do you get your relative rotation 你从哪里得到你的相对轮换
charts from i use stockcharts.com for it 图表我使用的是 stockcharts.com 因为它
there aren't many places to get them 有 除了彭博淀粉鲨 stockcharts.com 和其他一些地方，没有多少地方可以买到它们，
other than bloomberg starch sharks
stockcharts.com and a few other places
but start just 但只从 stockcharts.com 开始，
stockcharts.com sorry 抱歉，这
is where most i would say retail traders 是我最想说的地方 尾部交易者
get access to rrg which is a relative 可以访问 rrg，这是一个相对
rotation chart 轮换
is it better to pick take profit partial 图表，在收益公布日期之前选择止盈部分
profits and close the trade before the 利润并关闭交易会更好
earnings announcement date um donald you
know i don't think that there's a 吗？
general best practice for that the
question is really whether or not you 真的，无论您是否
want to get exposure to the earnings 想接触收益
announcement that's going to determine 公告，这将
whether you don't keep it open or close 决定您在收益之前是不打开还是关闭
it before earnings 它，
how do you feel about using short 您对使用短扼杀的感觉如何，
strangles um so you know i talked about 所以您知道我之前讨论过
that a bit earlier before 这个问题
where can i find graphs shown on revenue 我在哪里可以找到关于收入
and earnings trend analysis so sandra 和收益趋势分析
these are charts that we built ourselves 的图表，所以 Sandra 这些是我们自己制作的图表
and we are currently in the process of ，我们目前
working on and integrating into the 正在研究并整合到
options play platform but these are 期权游戏平台中，但
these are you know these are not 这些是你知道的，这些不是
proprietary these are publicly available 专有的 是公开的
numbers almost every brokerage firm 数字，几乎每个经纪公司都会
provides some type of chart if you will 提供某种类型的图表，如果您
to show you historical um revenue and 愿意向您展示历史收入和
earnings trends so that you should be 收益趋势，以便您 你应该
able to you know at the very least 能够至少
eyeball you know the the overall trends 知道你对整体趋势的了解，
right so 所以
instead of them showing to you in like
this if you just had a you know some bar 如果你只是有一个你知道一些
graphs right you should be able to 条形图的人，而不是像这样向你展示，你应该能够
eyeball hey this is a company that isn't 注意到这是一个 如果我从趋势上看，实际上并没有
really growing their revenues actually 真正增加收入的公司
if i look at on trend is actually 实际上正在
decreasing revenues so 减少收入，所以
you know this is something that 你知道这是
every single 每个
brokerage firm has access to historical 经纪公司都可以访问历史
financial statements 财务报表
and most of them will plot it for you on 的东西，他们中的大多数会在图表上为你绘制它
a chart i find plotting it on the chart 找到将它绘制在图表上
just visually i can quickly gauge hey is 只是视觉上我可以快速判断嘿，
this trending in the right direction or 这种趋势是否朝着正确的方向发展
not
are you still going to take this ，你是否仍然要参加
thursday's meetings i'm not sure what 周四的会议，我不确定
you mean by that um 你说的那个嗯
[Music] [音乐]
dan is only taking over the options 丹只是接管是什么意思 周四的选项
education thursday sessions um as 教育课程 嗯，
for those of you that may not uh know 对于你们中那些可能还不知道的人
yet my wife and i are expecting our ，我和我的妻子
first child here in the next couple of 在接下来的几周左右期待我们的第一个孩子在这里，
weeks or so um so at this point you know 所以在这一点上你知道
we want to make sure that you guys have 我们想要确保 你们
continuity in terms of education so 在教育方面有连续性，所以
once my wife gives birth um dan 一旦我的妻子生了 um dan
pasarelli who we just i did a session pasarelli，我们就
with on tuesday afternoon for some of 在星期二下午和
you that attended he will be taking over 他一起为你们中的一些人做了一个会议，他将接管
uh about three about four to five 呃大约三到四到五个
education sessions while i take a few 教育课程，而我 休息
weeks off um 几周，
but during that time uh dan will be 但在那段时间里，呃丹将
taking over and we will also have 接任，我们还将让
prakash stepping in on the tuesday 普拉卡什参加周二的
market outlook sessions so we've got you 市场展望会议，所以我们已经为您
covered across all of the sessions that 介绍了
we host um you will not expect you will 我们主持的所有会议，您不会期望 你不会
not see any disruptions to any of the
sessions that we host on tuesday on 看到我们在周二和周四举办的任何课程受到任何干扰
thursday and even the friday rapid fire ，甚至是周五的快速射击
sessions 课程
any future class on 任何关于
pre-earning strategies often those 预盈利策略的未来课程通常这些
stocks get overhyped and reverse this 股票会被过度炒作并逆转这个
direction 方向，
um you know i i i don't have a 你知道 iii 没有
particular uh
class on that i'll be honest 说实话，我
i i don't really think of those things 真的不认为这些事情
as necessarily that important um 有那么重要，嗯，
you know and there's no way in my 你知道，我
opinion that you'll ever be able to 认为你永远无法
gauge
how the market is going to react that's 衡量 ket 会做出反应 这
the one thing that you can't gauge you 是你无法衡量的一件事 你可以
can gauge
largely you know 在很大程度上衡量 你
to some degree whether you think the 在某种程度上知道你认为
stock's going to beat or miss what's 股票会上涨还是错过
almost impossible to gauge is how the 几乎无法衡量的是
market is going to react to that 市场将如何反应
i don't think that's really a template 我 不要认为这真的是一个
for that in my opinion 模板，在我看来
do you get the profit and revenue data ，你是否
from the q10 reports or from the 从 Q10 报告或
company's website so you can but i think 公司网站获得利润和收入数据，所以你可以，但我认为
that's a lot of work most brokerage firm 这是很多工作，大多数经纪公司
aggregate most brokerage firms aggregate 汇总大多数经纪公司汇总
all of this stuff for you so you 所有 为您准备了这些东西，因此
shouldn't have to go to the sec website 您不必去 sec 网站
or the company's website to get this 或公司网站来获取此类
type of stuff um you know your broker
term aggregates all of it so you can
just type in the symbol into your you
know think or swim or whatever platform 东西 或游泳或
you use and they should be able to show 您使用的任何平台，他们应该能够向
you the financial statements or a chart 您展示财务报表或
of the historical 历史
primary you know 主要图表您知道
some of the most important things which 一些最重要的事情，
are revenue and eps earnings per share 即收入和每股收益
with that that covers the questions that 与该 cov
i have time for here today i really 我今天有时间回答这些问题我真的很感谢你
appreciate you taking your time out here
this afternoon uh to 今天下午抽出时间来
listen to you know how to think about 听听你知道如何考虑
earnings season and hopefully giving you 收益季节并希望让
a better understanding as to what you 你更好地了解你
want to look for in your research when 想要在你的 当
you're thinking about how do i think 您考虑我如何
about stocks that are going to beat or 看待收益将超过或错过的股票时进行研究
miss on earnings and thank you so much ，非常感谢你们
for those of you that said 中的那些人说
congratulations i really appreciate it 祝贺我真的很感激
um and i really look forward to ，我真的很期待
having dan on when when the baby comes 什么时候有丹 宝宝来了，
but until then i will be here um and i 但在那之前我会在这里，嗯，我
expect to be here probably at least for 希望至少
the next couple of weeks or so but with 在接下来的几周左右会在这里，
that thank you so much i hope you guys 但非常感谢你们，我希望你们
have a great trading day um we don't 有一个美好的交易日，我们
have a rapid fire session tomorrow 没有 明天早上的快速会议，
morning but i will be sending everyone 但我将向每个人发送
the chart book so that you will see my 图表簿，以便您看到我
macro view on the broader markets the 对更广泛市场的宏观看法，
sector rotations and the individual 行业轮换以及
names that we are paying attention to in 我们在
this market with that thank you so much 这个市场上关注的个人名称 非常感谢你们
have a great trading day and i'll see 有一个美好的交易日，我
you guys here next week on the tuesday 下周在周二的
market outlook session have a good night 市场展望会议上见你们祝你晚安