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okay good afternoon and welcome back
好的，下午好，欢迎

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everyone to our options education
大家回到我们的期权教育

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webinar series my name is tony zhang i'm
网络研讨会系列我的名字是托尼张我是

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the chief strategist here at options
期权游戏的首席策略师

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play and we are yet upon another
我们又是一个

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earnings season so today we're gonna go
财报季所以今天我们将讨论

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over

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what our expectations are for this
我们对此的期望

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upcoming earnings season what are the
即将到来的收益季节

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things that you need to be aware of as
，当

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you're trading options around earnings
您围绕收益交易期权时，您需要注意

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specifically around what
哪些事项，特别是

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how the how the

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how the value of your option changes

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around earnings season so that you can
围绕收益季节期间您的期权价值如何变化的方式，以便您可以

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account for them when you're
在

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anticipating what the potential outcomes
预测

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are for different option strategies and
不同期权策略的潜在结果，

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then giving you a checklist of what i
然后向您提供一份清单，列出

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look for when i'm going into an earnings
我在

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announcement
发布收益公告时

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to do research on an individual stock as
要对某只股票进行研究

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to

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trying to make an educated guess as to
以尝试

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whether that stock has has a higher
对该股票是否进行有根据的猜测 在我进行每笔期权交易之前，我有更高的

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probability of beating or potentially
可能超过或可能

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missing on earnings giving you a
错过收益，为您提供

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checklist of the things that i look for
一份我要寻找的东西的清单，

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before i place every single options

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trade so that you can hopefully also
所以 当你有一个特定的想法时，希望你也能

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become informed and do your own research
变得知情并做你自己的研究

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when you have a specific idea so before
，所以在

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we get started what we are going to
我们开始之前，我们今天要在

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discuss here today is purely for
这里讨论的内容纯粹是为了

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education and demonstration purposes it
教育和演示目的，它

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is not a solicitation or recommendation
不是

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to buy or sell any of the specific
购买或出售任何东西的招揽或建议

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securities that we are going to discuss
我们将

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during today's session
在今天的会议期间讨论的特定证券中，

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so we'll start off by taking a look at
因此我们将首先查看第二季度

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the q2 q3 earnings preview we'll take a
第三季度收益预览 我们将

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look at what happened last quarter in q2
看看第二季度上个季度发生的情况

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and then look at what our expectations
，然后看看我们的预期

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are for q3 this year then we'll talk a
是什么 对于今年的第三季度，我们将

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little bit about the difference between
稍微讨论一下

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buying versus selling an option going
买入与卖出期权之间的区别

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into an earnings announcement largely
进入收益公告在很大程度上，

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you have the choice of either buying
您可以选择购买，

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because you think the stock's going to
因为您认为股票

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make a big move or you have the option
会发生重大变化，或者您有选择权

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of selling because the implied
因为隐含

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volatility is high there are pros and
波动率很高，所以

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cons to each one i want to make sure you
每个人都有利有弊 我想确保您

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understand that

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at least from a conceptual perspective
至少从概念的角度理解这一点

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and then we're going to dive into the
，然后我们将 深入研究

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greek so that you can actually get some
希腊语，以便您实际上可以获得

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numbers around these different factors
有关这些不同因素的一些数字，

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that are going to affect your options
这些因素将影响您对

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around earnings and i'll show you my
收益的选择，我将向您展示我的

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earnings research checklist that i go
收益研究清单，我会通过该清单

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through

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to gain a better understanding as to
更好地了解

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which stocks may have a better
哪些股票可能有 一个更好

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probability of beating versus missing
的胜率与丢失

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earnings and lastly trying to go through
收入的可能性，最后尝试

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a few examples to hopefully help bring
通过几个例子来帮助

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home the point before we open this for
我们在最后为 qma 在这里打开这个之前帮助带回家，

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qma here at the very end

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but the primary thing that i want to
但我想

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help you walk away from today's session
帮助你离开今天的会议的主要事情

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is a clear understanding as to how you
对如何

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can research and trade earnings season

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with limited risk using options so let's
使用期权在有限风险的情况下研究和交易收益季节有一个清晰的认识，所以让我们

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go ahead and get started and let's first
继续开始吧，让我们先

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talk about the q3 earnings preview
谈谈第三季度的收益预览，

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before we jump into what our
然后再讨论我们对第三季度的

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expectations are for q3 let's talk a
预期让我们稍微谈谈

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little bit about what happened in q2 so
关于第二季度发生的事情，所以

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we saw an 88
我们看到

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increase in earnings per share for the s
sp 500 股票的每股收益增长了 88

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p 500 stocks 23 percent increase year
% 销售额同比增长 23%

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over year in sales now this is some of
现在这是其中的一部分

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the largest gains we've seen simply
我们看到的最大收益仅仅

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because q2 of last year was arguably one
是因为去年第二季度可以说是收益和收入下降

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of the worst quarters in terms of
最严重的季度之一，

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decline for both earnings and revenues

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so a record growth here is not
因此这里的创纪录增长并不

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surprising
奇怪

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what was important for us to pay
，对我们来说重要的是要

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attention to was the fact that 10 out of
注意的是

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11 sectors did end up beating consensus
11 个行业中有 10 个最终超过了共识，

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one of the best quarters we've seen so
这是我们迄今为止看到的最好的季度之一，

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far 72 percent of all s p 500 companies
所有 SP 500 公司中有 72%

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beat on both top and bottom lines so
在收入和

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largely one of the better uh earnings
利润方面都超过了预期，因此在很大程度上是有史以来最好的收益

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seasons on
季节之一

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on record uh that we have seen in terms
，呃我们 已经

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of number of companies or percentage of

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companies that were able to be both top
看到了能够同时实现顶

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and bottom line
线和底线

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revenue and earnings per share but the
收入和每股收益的公司数量或公司百分比，但

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biggest thing that i think is
我认为

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concerning for investors to see was not
投资者最关心的事情

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necessarily how
不一定是公司如何

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companies

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beat or missed on earnings but more
击败或错过收益 但更

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importantly how did stocks react to
重要的是，股票如何对

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those beats and misses and this is
这些节拍和失误做出反应，据我所知，就盈利季节股票而言，这

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really where we i have not seen these
确实是我们没有看到这些

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types of skewed numbers as far as i
类型的偏斜数字的地方

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remember in terms of earning seasons

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stocks that beat on earnings only moved
盈利超过预期仅

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on average of 0.3 percent higher
平均上涨 0.3%

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and stocks that missed on earnings saw
，而错过盈利的股票则

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such a substantial miss a negative 2.3
大幅亏损 2.3

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percent on misses so this is really
%，因此这确实

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where we have seen a big skew in terms
是我们看到

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of not just how companies perform but
的不仅在公司表现如何，而且在如何表现方面都存在很大偏差的地方

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how markets reacted after those
市场在这些业绩数据之后做出了反应，

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performance numbers so
所以

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this is something that we're going to
这是我们

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pay attention to because these these we
要关注的事情，因为在过去的几个季度中，我们

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saw smaller and smaller beats and bigger
看到越来越小的节拍和

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and bigger misses over the past couple
越来越大的失误，

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of quarters this really gives us a sense
这确实让我们

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for what's priced into the market so
了解了 市场，所以

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last quarter there's a lot of optimism
上个季度市场上有很多乐观

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priced into the market so when when
情绪，所以当股市上涨时，

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stocks beat they barely nudged higher
他们几乎没有推高

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stocks that miss because that optimism
那些错过的股票，因为这种乐观情绪

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was so high they had us incredible move
如此之高，他们让我们在这个特定的财报季出现了令人

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here to the downside now so far this
难以置信的下行趋势。

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particular earnings season we've seen
看到了

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somewhat similar uh you know outcomes in
有点相似呃你

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terms of

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of uh how stocks have reacted but it is
知道股票如何反应的结果但是

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still pretty early days in this

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particular quarter so so far our
到目前为止我们的预期在这个特定季度还

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expectation is about a 27 increase on
为时过早

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eps versus q3 of last year versus 88 for
与去年第三季度相比，每股收益大约增加了 27 倍，而第二季度为

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q2 so substantially lower
88 倍，因此

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increase in terms of expectations and
在预期方面的增幅要低得多

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the one thing that we really have to
，我们真正需要考虑的一件事

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consider is the fact that consensus
是共识

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forecasts this particular forecast of 27
预测这一特定预测

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increase in eps this has actually fallen
的 eps 增长 27

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fairly sharply over the past month or so
在过去一个月左右的时间里实际上已经大幅下降

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and this is largely due to the supply
，这主要是由于

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chain issues that we continue to see and
我们继续看到的供应链问题

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the inflation the cost of goods and
和通货膨胀，商品和

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labor that continue to
劳动力成本继续

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ha you know has have shown no form of
存在，你

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easing in the current quarter and
知道在 本季度，

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you know while a lot of companies had
你知道虽然很多公司都

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expected that this would start to ease
预计这将

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towards the end of the year so far this
在年底前开始缓解，但到目前为止，

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does not look like that's going to

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happen it looks like it's going to
这看起来不会发生，但

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actually get worse going into the end of
到年底，情况实际上会变得更糟

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the year so this is really some of the
年所以这确实是

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biggest

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i would say downside pressures on this
我认为这个特定收益季节的最大下行压力之一，

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particular earnings season but it also
但这也

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means

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that the expectations for this
意味着目前对这个

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particular quarter at the moment has
特定季度的预期有

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been lowered so the bar has been lowered
b  een 降低了，所以

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in terms of expectations so when we do
在预期方面的标准已经降低，所以当我们确实

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see companies that beat my expectation
看到超出我预期的

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is that we're going to see larger
公司时，我们将看到

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reactions to beats but we're also going
对节拍的更大反应，但我们

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to see some fairly sizable misses
也会看到一些相当大的失误，

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because companies i think there's you're
因为我认为公司 在消费领域，你

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going to see a lot of huge moves in the
会看到很多巨大的变化，

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in the

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consumer space because companies that

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are able to manage their supply chain
因为能够管理供应链

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and pass on their
并将

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rising in labor and
劳动力和商品成本上涨的公司

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cost of goods to the consumer those are
转嫁给消费者，这些公司

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the ones that are going to surprise us
将 让

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to the upside and then you're going to
我们大吃一惊，然后你会

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see some companies that do not fare so
看到一些公司

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well in this particular space where they
在这个特定领域表现不佳，

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get squeezed out in the supply chain
在供应链中被挤出，

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they're not able to pass on their
他们无法将

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rising costs onto the consumer and those
不断上涨的成本转嫁给消费者和那些

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are the ones we're going to see perhaps
是我们将在这里看到一些大失望的人吗？

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00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:54,720
some big disappointments here so the
所以

191
00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:57,280
consumer space because supply chain
消费者空间，因为供应链

192
00:06:57,280 --> 00:06:58,960
inflation is going to be a big issue
通胀将是

193
00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:00,720
this particular quarter in my opinion
这个特定季度的一个大问题，在我看来，

194
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,120
you're going to see some big moves there
当你在那里看到一些大动作

195
00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,520
when we look at what has reported so far
时 看看到目前为止的报告，

196
00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:06,880
predominantly

197
00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:09,440
we have seen the banks report mostly
我们主要看到银行

198
00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:11,360
last week and 85 percent of the banks
在上周的报告中，85% 的

199
00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,759
that have reported have been on both
银行都对

200
00:07:13,759 --> 00:07:16,000
sales and revenue consensus so this is a
销售和收入达成了共识，因此这是

201
00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,720
fairly strong start to the quarter with
本季度的一个相当强劲的开端，

202
00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,400
the banks showing quite a bit of
银行的表现相当不错

203
00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:21,759
strength here and we'll have to see
这里有点强势，我们将不得不看看

204
00:07:21,759 --> 00:07:25,360
whether this continues into the um the
这是否会持续到市场的

205
00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,680
rest of the market so
其他部分，所以

206
00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,400
let's take a look at the sectors for
让

207
00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,080
this particular quarter when we look at
我们看看这个特定季度的行业，当我们看看

208
00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:33,840
which sectors have seen the largest
哪些行业出现了最大的

209
00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:35,840
upward revisions so analysts who have
向上修正时，分析师认为 已经

210
00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,720
revised their sales and eps targets for
修改了本季度的销售额和每股收益目标

211
00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:40,720
this particular quarter

212
00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,199
technology energy and real estate are
技术能源和房地产

213
00:07:43,199 --> 00:07:45,440
the three sectors that have seen the

214
00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,080
most amount of upward revisions so
是上调幅度最大的三个行业，因此

215
00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:49,919
analysts who have looked at the company
查看该公司的分析师

216
00:07:49,919 --> 00:07:51,440
looked at kind of what's happened over
查看了特定季度发生的情况

217
00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,680
the particular quarter and put in their
并投入了 他们

218
00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:55,360
estimates as to where they think these
对他们认为这些

219
00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:57,039
companies will end up both in terms of
公司在

220
00:07:57,039 --> 00:07:59,840
revenue and in terms of earnings
收入和

221
00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:01,360
on the flip side we look at sectors
收益方面最终会在

222
00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:03,520
where we've seen analysts revise those
哪里的估计 我们看到分析师将这些

223
00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:05,759
expectations to the downside and that's
预期修正为下行，这

224
00:08:05,759 --> 00:08:07,840
where we've seen most of that revision
就是我们

225
00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,160
in the utilities phase and the consumer
在公用事业阶段和消费

226
00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,560
sectors and again this repo this goes
领域看到大部分修正的地方，而这次回购又

227
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:13,599
back to our
回到了我们

228
00:08:13,599 --> 00:08:16,639
supply and inflation numbers here uh
这里的供应和通胀数据，

229
00:08:16,639 --> 00:08:19,520
with respect to these um consumer
嗯，就这些消费

230
00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:21,360
sectors that are likely going to see
领域而言 这可能会看到

231
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,599
some downside pressures from the supply
来自供应链的一些下行压力

232
00:08:23,599 --> 00:08:24,960
chain and
，

233
00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,280
uh you know cost of goods and cost of
嗯，你现在知道这里的商品成本和劳动力成本，

234
00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,479
labor here at the moment so
所以

235
00:08:30,479 --> 00:08:33,360
when we think about trading options for
当我们考虑围绕收益的交易选择时，

236
00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,760
around earnings the most important thing
最重要的

237
00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,958
to to understand are the three main
是要了解三个主要

238
00:08:38,958 --> 00:08:41,360
factors that will affect the value of an
因素 这将影响收益公告中期权的价值，

239
00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,120
option going into an earnings

240
00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:44,959
announcement so we're going to break
所以我们将把

241
00:08:44,959 --> 00:08:48,000
this up into
它分解为

242
00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,480
buying options and selling options so
买入期权和卖出期权，所以

243
00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,240
when we talk about buying options we're
当我们谈论买入期权时，我们现在

244
00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,959
largely trying to take limited risk in
主要是试图承担有限的风险以

245
00:08:54,959 --> 00:08:58,000
exchange for unlimited reward now this
换取无限的回报 这样

246
00:08:58,000 --> 00:08:59,120
has
做

247
00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:01,040
the benefit of having limited risk so
的好处是风险有限，

248
00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:02,640
that if you're wrong in the direction
所以如果你在方向上错了，

249
00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,680
you contain how much risk you take and
你会控制你承担的风险

250
00:09:05,680 --> 00:09:07,279
you have the benefit of if you get the
，如果你得到了，你就会受益

251
00:09:07,279 --> 00:09:09,680
direction correct you get unlimited
方向正确，理论上你会获得无限的

252
00:09:09,680 --> 00:09:11,839
upside in theory so
上涨空间，因此

253
00:09:11,839 --> 00:09:14,640
however there are some drawbacks to this
这种风险存在一些缺点，

254
00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,360
risk this asymmetrical risk reward ratio
这种不对称的风险回报率

255
00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,440
that's skewed in your favor so when
对你有利，所以当

256
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,440
we're talking about buying options i
我们谈论购买期权时，我

257
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:23,760
consider this as one step forward with
认为这是向前迈出的一步，

258
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,440
two steps back
后退两步

259
00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:26,640
what that means is that when you're
。 意思是，当你

260
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:28,240
buying an option you have this
购买期权时，你有这种

261
00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,240
asymmetric risk to reward where you have
不对称的风险来回报，而你的

262
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,480
limited risk and unlimited profit
风险有限，利润

263
00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,720
potential and basically if you get the
潜力无限，基本上如果你的

264
00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:36,800
directional view correct so if you think
方向观点正确，那么如果你

265
00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:38,640
the stock's going to beat on earnings
认为股票会超过收益

266
00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:40,320
and the stock makes a big move to the
并且股票 一个巨大的

267
00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,160
upside well you're going to be able to
上行趋势，您将能够

268
00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,120
have a large gain in the underlying

269
00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,440
position based on your estimate of
根据您

270
00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,600
whether the stock is going to beat or
对股票是否会上涨或下跌的估计在基础头寸中获得巨大收益，

271
00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:51,279
miss

272
00:09:51,279 --> 00:09:53,440
however at the same time there's going
但同时

273
00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,519
to be two other factors that are going
还有另外两个因素

274
00:09:55,519 --> 00:09:57,519
to be working against you when you have
当你有这种不对称的风险回报率时，你将会对你不利

275
00:09:57,519 --> 00:10:00,160
this asymmetric risk to reward ratio the

276
00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,720
first one is volatility crush the second
第一个是波动率压制 第二

277
00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,600
one is time decay so volatility crush
个是时间衰减 所以波动率压制

278
00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,000
refers to the implied volatility of an
指的是 im

279
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,720
option prior to earnings is going to be
收益之前期权的波动性将

280
00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,360
elevated and that's because the implied
升高，这是因为隐含

281
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,839
volatility the uncertainty around what's
波动率

282
00:10:15,839 --> 00:10:17,200
going to happen on that earnings
、收益公告上将发生的事情的不确定性在收益

283
00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,200
announcement is high around before and
和收益之前很高，

284
00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,120
earnings so the
因此

285
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,519
the premium that's going to be needed to

286
00:10:23,519 --> 00:10:25,839
purchase that call or put option needs
购买该看涨期权所需的溢价或 看跌期权

287
00:10:25,839 --> 00:10:27,360
to be higher because the person who's on
需要更高，因为在

288
00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,120
the other side of that trade the seller
该交易另一端的人，该看涨

289
00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:30,959
of that caller put needs to be
者看跌期权的卖方需要

290
00:10:30,959 --> 00:10:33,440
compensated for taking on the risk to
因承担另一方的风险而得到补偿

291
00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,040
the other side

292
00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:36,800
and that's why whenever you're buying an
，这就是为什么每当您购买期权时，您

293
00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:38,160
option going into earnings you're going
都会获利 “一旦收益公告出来，现在

294
00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:39,680
to have higher
将有更高的

295
00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:41,519
option premiums or higher implied
期权溢价或更高的隐含

296
00:10:41,519 --> 00:10:43,920
volatility now once the earnings
波动率

297
00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:45,040
announcement

298
00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,399
comes out

299
00:10:46,399 --> 00:10:48,880
that uncertainty factor is gone we know
，不确定因素消失了，我们

300
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:50,480
exactly how much the company made in
确切地知道公司在

301
00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:52,240
terms of revenue how much they earned in
收入方面赚了多少，他们在

302
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,240
terms of profit or loss and that
损益方面赚了多少，而且

303
00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,240
uncertainty goes away so the implied
不确定性消失了 所以隐含

304
00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:59,120
volatility option naturally decreases
波动率期权

305
00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:00,640
immediately after the earnings
在收益公告后自然会立即减少

306
00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:02,000
announcement that's what we call to
，这就是我们所说的

307
00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,000
volatility crush and that's going to
波动率期权 h

308
00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:05,680
work against you as the buyer of an
作为期权的买家，这将对您不利，

309
00:11:05,680 --> 00:11:07,200
option so if you buy an option that's
因此，如果您在收益前购买了 3 美元的期权，

310
00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,519
three dollars prior to earnings even if

311
00:11:09,519 --> 00:11:11,519
the stock doesn't move
即使股票没有变动，

312
00:11:11,519 --> 00:11:14,320
you will expect that that option will be
您也会期望该期权

313
00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:16,480
worth less the very next day just
在第二天的价值会降低，

314
00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,880
because of the uncertainty factor is
因为 不确定性因素

315
00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:20,480
gone and that's going to work against
消失了，这将对

316
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:22,320
you as the buyer of that option because
您作为该期权的买家不利，因为

317
00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,160
when you buy an option you want the
当您购买期权时，您希望

318
00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:25,839
option to increase in value not
期权价值增加而不是

319
00:11:25,839 --> 00:11:27,600
decreasing value which is what the
降低价值，这就是

320
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,240
volatility crush does and then you also
波动率压抑所做的，然后您也会

321
00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:32,000
have time decay because you have to buy
有时间衰减 因为您必须

322
00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,680
the option prior to earnings and then
在收益之前购买期权，然后在收益

323
00:11:33,680 --> 00:11:35,519
you have to sell the options after the
之后您必须在该时间段内卖出期权，所以您持有该期权，

324
00:11:35,519 --> 00:11:37,440
earnings during that time period you're
在那段时间内，您的时间

325
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:38,880
holding on to that option you're going
会

326
00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,600
to have time decay during that time so
减少，因此

327
00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,720
as a options buyer you have these two
作为期权买家，您 有这两个

328
00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:46,399
factors working against you they're
因素对你不利 他们

329
00:11:46,399 --> 00:11:48,079
constantly working against you they'll
一直在对你不利 他们将

330
00:11:48,079 --> 00:11:50,079
always work against you and what you're
永远对你不利，

331
00:11:50,079 --> 00:11:51,760
trying to do is you're trying to pick
你要做的是尝试选择

332
00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,480
options or specifically stocks that you
期权或特别是你

333
00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:56,720
think that you're going to get a large
认为自己的股票 e

334
00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:59,200
enough move in the underlying stock
将在标的股票中获得足够大的变动，这

335
00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,120
that's going to raise the value of the

336
00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:02,160
option

337
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,680
faster than what's going to be lost to
将比

338
00:12:05,680 --> 00:12:09,360
volatility crush and time decay so
波动性压抑和时间衰减所造成的损失更快地提高期权的价值，所以

339
00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,680
this is where you have one potential
这就是你有一个潜在

340
00:12:11,680 --> 00:12:13,920
thing working in your favor that's going
的事情对你有利的地方

341
00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:15,760
to offset the two things that are
抵消对你不利的两件事，

342
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,920
working against you that's how you can

343
00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:19,839
profit now if you get the directional
如果你的方向

344
00:12:19,839 --> 00:12:21,279
view wrong meaning if you think the
观错误，这就是你现在可以获利的方式，这意味着如果你认为

345
00:12:21,279 --> 00:12:23,360
stock's going to beat but it misses
股票会上涨但它错过了

346
00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,600
guess what now you have three factors
猜猜现在你有三个

347
00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,000
working against you you have the price
对你不利的因素你有

348
00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,440
of the stock working against you you
价格 股票对你不利，你

349
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,279
have volatility crush and you have time
有波动性压抑，你有时间

350
00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:33,120
decay working against you so it's a
衰减对你不利，所以

351
00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,279
really difficult proposition to find
要找到

352
00:12:35,279 --> 00:12:37,680
these stocks that you think are going to
这些你认为会

353
00:12:37,680 --> 00:12:40,639
make such a big move that the gains that
做出如此大动作的股票是一个非常困难的提议，

354
00:12:40,639 --> 00:12:42,320
you have in the underlying stock and
你在基础股票中获得的收益以及

355
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,959
subsequently the option will offset the
随后的收益 选项将抵消

356
00:12:44,959 --> 00:12:47,440
volatility crush and the time decay does
波动性压抑和时间衰减

357
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,200
that make sense everyone please type one
是否有意义每个人请

358
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,360
into the chat window if that makes sense
在聊天窗口中输入一个如果这

359
00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:53,839
to you and it's quite difficult in my
对你有意义并且非常不同 在我

360
00:12:53,839 --> 00:12:55,920
opinion to pinpoint stocks that you
看来，很难确定你

361
00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,000
think are going to do exactly this which
认为会做这件事的股票，

362
00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,800
is effectively beating what the market
这有效地击败了

363
00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,920
is anticipating it is going to do but we
市场预期的股票，但我们

364
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:05,839
see it time and time after every single
会在每个季度之后一次又一次地看到它，

365
00:13:05,839 --> 00:13:08,959
quarter you see stocks that make 10 15
你会看到股票上涨 10 15

366
00:13:08,959 --> 00:13:11,920
20 jumps after earnings because the
20 次 在收益之后，

367
00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:13,920
market got it wrong and if you're able
因为市场出错了，如果您

368
00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,079
to pick those stocks this is how you can
能够选择这些股票，这就是您

369
00:13:16,079 --> 00:13:18,880
potentially profit from that okay now on
可能从中获利的

370
00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:20,560
the flip side

371
00:13:20,560 --> 00:13:22,399
you might say to yourself it's really

372
00:13:22,399 --> 00:13:23,680
rare that you're going to be able to
方式

373
00:13:23,680 --> 00:13:26,639
pick out those types of scenarios so
挑选出这些类型的场景，所以

374
00:13:26,639 --> 00:13:28,800
perhaps you might favor something else
也许你可能更喜欢其他

375
00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,120
selling options this is really where
出售期权的东西，这真的

376
00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:32,959
well you can have two things working in
很好，你可以让两件事对

377
00:13:32,959 --> 00:13:35,200
your favor you have two steps forward
你有利，你有两步前进

378
00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,160
and one potentially massive step back so
和一个潜在的巨大后退，所以

379
00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:39,600
when you're selling an option you have
当你出售一个期权时，你有

380
00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:41,519
the opposite of

381
00:13:41,519 --> 00:13:43,600
of buying an option which is limited
与购买风险有限但回报无限的期权相反，

382
00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,920
risk with unlimited reward when you're
当您

383
00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:47,440
selling an option you have limited
出售期权时，您的

384
00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:51,440
reward and potentially unlimited risk so
回报有限且风险可能无限，因此

385
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,440
when you're selling an option the good
当您出售期权时

386
00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,680
thing is that what works against an
事情是

387
00:13:55,680 --> 00:13:57,760
options buyer that's going to be start
，对即将开始

388
00:13:57,760 --> 00:13:59,120
that's going to work in your favor

389
00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,120
you're selling an option you know that
的期权

390
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,360
the option will experience a volatility

391
00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,279
crush on earnings so the value of the
买家不利的做法

392
00:14:05,279 --> 00:14:07,040
option that you sold will naturally
会对您有利

393
00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,120
decrease after the earnings announcement
在收益公告后减少

394
00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:10,959
and you also have time decay so while
，你也有时间衰减，所以当

395
00:14:10,959 --> 00:14:12,480
you hold on to it the value of the
你坚持它时，期权的价值

396
00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:14,880
option will simply decay just with time
只会随着时间的推移而衰减，

397
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,720
so if the stock doesn't move you'll
所以如果股票不移动，你

398
00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,040
still be profitable just on time decay
仍然会在时间衰减时盈利

399
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,199
and now you add volatility crush on top
，现在你 最重要的是增加波动性

400
00:14:21,199 --> 00:14:22,800
of that those are two things that are
压抑，这些

401
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:24,800
working in your favor and
是对你有利的两件事，

402
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,160
when you're selling an option what
当你出售期权时，

403
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,639
you're trying to pinpoint are stocks
你试图查明的

404
00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:30,560
that are not going to make huge moves
是不会大幅波动的股票，

405
00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:32,800
certainly not huge moves in the opposite
当然不是相反

406
00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:34,880
direction that you expect it to so if
方向的巨大波动 你期望它如此 如果

407
00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:36,639
you're selling a put you're hoping that
你卖出看跌期权 你

408
00:14:36,639 --> 00:14:38,720
the stock doesn't decline substantially
希望股票不会大幅下跌

409
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,480
if you're selling a call you're hoping
如果你卖出看涨期权 你

410
00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:42,240
that the stock doesn't rise
希望股票不会大幅上涨

411
00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:43,680
substantially

412
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,360
so when you're selling an option what
所以当你卖出时 一个操作

413
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:46,959
you're hoping is that the volatility
您希望的是，您在出售该期权时将收集到的波动性

414
00:14:46,959 --> 00:14:48,320
crush and the time decay that you're
压抑和时间衰减

415
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:50,560
going to collect on selling that option

416
00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:53,360
will be larger than any adverse move in
将大于标的股票的任何不利变动，

417
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,000
the underlying stock so does that make
所以这是否

418
00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:57,680
sense everyone please type 2 into the
有意义，请在

419
00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,320
chat window if that makes sense to you
聊天窗口中输入 2 如果现在这对您有意义，

420
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,399
now the question is
那么问题

421
00:15:02,399 --> 00:15:04,800
from a lot of traders and viewers is
来自于许多交易员和观众，

422
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:06,800
which one's better and the answer is one
哪个更好，答案是哪个

423
00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:08,079
is not better than the other they're
并不比另一个更好 他们

424
00:15:08,079 --> 00:15:10,160
just different depends on what your view
只是不同取决于

425
00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:12,320
is in going into earning some stocks you
您对赚取某些股票的看法

426
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:13,600
think are going to make a big move and
认为将采取重大举措并且

427
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:15,760
you're trying to capture it well those
您正在努力捕捉它那些

428
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:17,360
you should probably look at buying
您可能应该考虑购买

429
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,040
options other ones you think it's not
期权的其他选择您认为它

430
00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:20,240
going to make a big move or you're
不会采取重大举措或您

431
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,160
fairly confident that it's going to make
相当有信心它

432
00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,880
a me a you know a size a small move in
会使我 a 你知道一个大小 朝

433
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:26,560
one direction or other you might be
一个方向或其他方向的小幅波动 你可能会

434
00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,480
better off selling options and remember
更好地卖出期权并记住

435
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:30,000
you can't you don't have to just
你不能

436
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,560
outright buy a call or sell a put or buy
直接买入看涨期权或卖出看跌期权或买入看涨期权或

437
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:34,160
a caller or

438
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,320
buy a call or sell or put or vice versa
买入看涨期权或 卖出或卖出，反之亦然，

439
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,720
you can trade spreads as well right so
您可以 交易点差也是正确的，所以

440
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:41,279
when we refer to buying options you know
当我们提到购买期权时，您知道

441
00:15:41,279 --> 00:15:42,800
we could buy a debit spread you could
我们可以购买借方点差，您可以

442
00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,120
buy a calendar or diagonal spread those
购买日历或对角点差，这些

443
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,600
are just variations of buying options
只是购买期权的变体

444
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,079
that help offset some of the volatility
，有助于抵消一些波动性

445
00:15:50,079 --> 00:15:52,639
crushing time decay but vice versa you
破坏时间衰减，

446
00:15:52,639 --> 00:15:54,480
can instead of just selling a naked call
反之亦然 除了出售裸看涨期权

447
00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,079
or a put you could sell a credit spread
或看跌期权，您还可以出售信用价差，

448
00:15:56,079 --> 00:15:58,399
you could sell an iron condor there are
也可以出售铁秃鹰，还有

449
00:15:58,399 --> 00:16:00,480
other options selling strategies but the
其他期权销售策略，但

450
00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,720
core

451
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:04,079
the core

452
00:16:04,079 --> 00:16:05,839
fundamental understanding that you need
您需要拥有的核心基本面理解

453
00:16:05,839 --> 00:16:08,800
to have are these two factors or these
是这两个因素或这

454
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:10,639
three factors
三个

455
00:16:10,639 --> 00:16:12,639
that are either working in your favor or
因素 作为期权买家或卖家，要么对你有利，要么

456
00:16:12,639 --> 00:16:15,600
against you as an as an option buyer or
对你不利，

457
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,079
seller so just to put some of these some
所以只是将其中的一些

458
00:16:18,079 --> 00:16:20,000
some context around theory because what
放在理论的一些背景下，因为

459
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,680
we've talked about so far is just theory
到目前为止我们所讨论的只是

460
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,360
to put some real numbers behind them we
将一些真实数字放在后面的理论，我们

461
00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:26,880
have to dive into the greeks and there
必须 深入研究希腊语，围绕收益 delta vega 和

462
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:28,480
are three greeks that are very important
theta 有三个非常重要的

463
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,680
around earnings delta vega and theta
希腊语，

464
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:33,839
those are the three things we were
这是我们提到的三件事

465
00:16:33,839 --> 00:16:35,680
referred to the stock moving
，股票大幅波动

466
00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,759
substantially higher or lower

467
00:16:37,759 --> 00:16:39,519
changes in implied volatility the
隐含波动率的更高或更低变化

468
00:16:39,519 --> 00:16:42,000
volatility crush and time decay those
波动率压缩和时间衰减 这些

469
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:43,360
are the three factors that we talked
是我们讨论过的三个因素

470
00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,240
about and these greeks help us quantify
，这些希腊语帮助我们量化

471
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,079
those three factors so if you're looking
这三个因素，因此，如果您正在查看

472
00:16:48,079 --> 00:16:51,040
at an option with the delta of 0.5 that
delta 为 0.5 的期权，这

473
00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:52,959
means for every one dollar the stock
意味着每个因素 美元股票

474
00:16:52,959 --> 00:16:55,360
moves the option will move by half as
移动期权将移动

475
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,759
much or 50 cents so if you have a stock
一半或 50 美分，所以如果你有一只股票

476
00:16:57,759 --> 00:17:00,079
that moves 10 on earnings and you have a
的收益移动 10 并且你有

477
00:17:00,079 --> 00:17:02,720
delta of 0.5 then you're expecting that
0.5 的增量，那么你期望

478
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,959
the value of your option will increase
你的期权价值将

479
00:17:04,959 --> 00:17:07,839
by let's say five dollars
增加 5 美元

480
00:17:07,839 --> 00:17:10,000
stock jumps ten dollars on earnings you
股票在收益上上涨 10 美元，您

481
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,000
make a five dollar profit on that
从该收益中获得 5 美元的利润，

482
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,240
earnings that's what delta approximates
这就是 delta

483
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,400
for you and then you have to add vega
对您的近似值，然后您必须将 vega 添加

484
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,720
into this so vega tells you for every
到其中，因此 vega 会告诉您

485
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,199
one percent change in implied volatility
隐含波动率每变化 1%

486
00:17:21,199 --> 00:17:22,959
how much does the value of the option
的价值是多少 期权

487
00:17:22,959 --> 00:17:26,000
change by so a vague of 0.25 means for
变化如此模糊的 0.25 意味着

488
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,559
every 1 change in implied volatility
隐含波动率每变化 1 次，

489
00:17:28,559 --> 00:17:32,880
you'll see a 25 cent drop in the uh in
您就会看到期权价值下降 25 美分，

490
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:34,720
the value of an option so if you buy
所以如果您

491
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,520
this call option prior to earnings um
在收益之前购买这个看涨期权，

492
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,120
let's say you buy the option for let's
让我们 是你买的期权让我们

493
00:17:39,120 --> 00:17:42,080
say three dollars
说三美元

494
00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,320
sorry let's say you buy the option for
对不起 假设你买

495
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,200
five dollars um you buy the option for
五美元的期权 你买五美元的

496
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,840
five dollars and

497
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,480
on earnings it increases uh the stock
期权 收益增加 呃股票

498
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,480
level increases by ten dollars so the
水平增加十美元 所以

499
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,320
value of your option increases by five
你的期权价值增加五

500
00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,400
dollars so now the value of your total
美元 所以现在你的总

501
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,640
option is worth ten dollars so the stock
期权价值 10 美元 所以

502
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,559
makes a ten dollar jump the five dollar
股票上涨 10 美元 你买的 5 美元的

503
00:18:02,559 --> 00:18:04,480
option that you buy increases by five
期权增加了 5

504
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,320
dollars so now you have an option that's
美元 所以现在你有一个

505
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,200
worth ten dollars now we know that
价值 10 美元的期权 现在我们知道

506
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,200
volatility crush comes into play let's
波动性压抑开始了

507
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:13,039
say you have a stock that's currently at
假设你有一只股票，目前的

508
00:18:13,039 --> 00:18:17,039
25 percent uh implied vol and after
隐含波动率是 25%，

509
00:18:17,039 --> 00:18:19,760
earnings the stock drops to 20
收益后股票会下降到 20

510
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,559
implied volatility so if you have a vega
隐含波动率，所以如果你有

511
00:18:22,559 --> 00:18:26,240
of 0.25 that translates to a loss of
0.25 的 vega 转化为

512
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:30,160
about a dollar fifty in vega because for
大约 50 美元的 vega 损失，因为

513
00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,799
every one percent you drop in sorry a
每 1% 对不起，你

514
00:18:32,799 --> 00:18:36,000
dollar twenty-five sorry um a dollar
掉了 25 美元 对不起，

515
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,039
twenty-five in value is lost due to the
由于

516
00:18:39,039 --> 00:18:41,280
volatility crush and then let's say you
波动性压抑，价值 25 美元损失，然后假设你

517
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,400
add theta to it a theta of 0.1 that
添加了 0.1 的 theta，这

518
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,640
means for every day that goes by you
意味着每天 tha 你

519
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,880
lose 10 cents let's say you held on to
损失了 10 美分 假设你持有

520
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,600
this trade for a total of 5 days that
这笔交易总共 5 天，这

521
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,960
means you now lost another 50 cents on
意味着你现在在期权上又损失了 50 美分，

522
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,360
the option so if you lost a total of
所以如果你总共

523
00:18:57,360 --> 00:19:00,880
basically a dollar 75 out of the 10
损失了 10 美元中的 75 美元，

524
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:02,400
which means that the value of your
这意味着 现在你

525
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:06,000
option now is worth 8 dollars and 25
的期权价值分别为 8 美元和 25

526
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,480
cents so this is how you can value the
美分，所以这就是你如何

527
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,880
value of your option so you make five
评估你的期权价值的方法，所以你

528
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,760
dollars on delta you lose a dollar 25 to
在 delta 上赚了 5 美元，你损失了 25 美元，因为

529
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,559
volatility crush you lose 50 cents to
波动性挤压你损失了 50 美分，因为

530
00:19:16,559 --> 00:19:20,080
time decay you're left with 8.25
时间衰减 剩下 8.25，

531
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,000
so the net profit that you made on this
所以你在这次

532
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,559
particular trade was three dollars and
特定交易中获得的净利润是 3 美元

533
00:19:24,559 --> 00:19:26,720
25 cents
25 美分，

534
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:28,320
so

535
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,240
the question is can you do the math on
所以问题是，

536
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,760
your own if you are trading an option on
如果你通过 uh 到 uh 收益交易期权，你能自己计算一下吗？

537
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,960
uh through through uh earnings and the

538
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:38,799
good point the good part about this is
关于这一点的部分

539
00:19:38,799 --> 00:19:40,640
that you don't have to do the math um
是你不必做数学，

540
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,120
our platform does the math for you so
我们的平台会为你做数学所以

541
00:19:43,120 --> 00:19:45,200
let's take a look at an example of this
让我们看一个例子

542
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,080
i'm going to look at amd for example amd
我将看看 amd 例如 amd

543
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:49,840
recently is starting to see some big
最近开始看到一些大的

544
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,600
moves here to the upside revisiting the
向上移动，重新回到

545
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,240
the recent all-time highs maybe this
最近的历史高点 也许这会

546
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,640
reports earnings next week and you want
报告下周的收益，你

547
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,720
to know how does this stock perform if i
想知道如果我想知道这只股票的

548
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,039
was to if i'm expecting the amd is going
表现如何，如果我预计 amd 会

549
00:20:01,039 --> 00:20:02,960
to blow it out of the water here and
在这里把它从水里吹出来，

550
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:04,559
it's going to jump substantially on
它会在

551
00:20:04,559 --> 00:20:06,960
earnings well you can use the p l
收益上大幅上涨，你可以使用

552
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,360
simulator within options play the p l
选项中的 pl 模拟器播放 pl

553
00:20:09,360 --> 00:20:11,280
simulator
模拟器

554
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:14,159
and what we have are three triggers you
，我们拥有三个触发器，您

555
00:20:14,159 --> 00:20:16,720
have the price you have the date and you
有价格，您有日期，您

556
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:18,799
have implied volatility those are the
有隐含波动率，这

557
00:20:18,799 --> 00:20:20,640
three sliders that are actually going to
三个滑块实际上将为您

558
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:22,240
calculate delta
计算 delta

559
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,200
vega and theta for you and show you the
vega 和 theta 并向您展示

560
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,200
impact of these three factors on the
影响 在这三个因素中

561
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:30,240
value of your option going into earnings
，您的期权价值会进入收益，

562
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,240
so let's say going into earnings i want
所以假设进入收益，我

563
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,200
to buy a november and you can structure
想购买 11 月的股票，您可以构建

564
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:36,880
any strategy that you want you don't
任何您想要的策略，而

565
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,480
have to use the ones that i'm looking at
不必使用我正在查看的策略，

566
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,120
but let's say you buy a november 120
但是 假设您购买了 11 月 120 日的

567
00:20:41,120 --> 00:20:43,120
call the stock's currently trading at
看涨期权，该股目前的交易价格为

568
00:20:43,120 --> 00:20:45,280
119 you buy an at the money call it cost
119 美元，您以现金买入，价值 5.45 美元

569
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,600
you 5.45

570
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:49,120
and what you want to do is you want to
，您想要做的是

571
00:20:49,120 --> 00:20:51,039
say what happens if the stock jumps to
说如果股票在

572
00:20:51,039 --> 00:20:52,640
135

573
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,080
135

574
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,640
a few days after earnings so earnings is
几天后跳至 135 135 会发生什么 宁所以收益是

575
00:20:56,640 --> 00:21:02,159
on october 26 so if let's say on october
在 10 月 26 日所以如果让我们说 10 月

576
00:21:02,159 --> 00:21:04,559
let's say november 2nd a week after
让我们说收益后一周的 11 月 2 日

577
00:21:04,559 --> 00:21:05,840
earnings

578
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,799
the stock is at 135 and the current
，股票价格为 135，而当前的

579
00:21:08,799 --> 00:21:12,000
implied volatility is of 40 percent
隐含波动率为 40%

580
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,240
now there isn't an exact science as to
现在没有

581
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,159
how much the implied volatility will
关于隐含波动率多少的精确科学 会

582
00:21:16,159 --> 00:21:18,320
collapse by but generally speaking i'd
崩溃，但一般来说，我想

583
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,159
like to take

584
00:21:20,159 --> 00:21:23,360
at least 10 to 20 off of the current
从当前的隐含波动率中至少减去 10 到 20，以便对

585
00:21:23,360 --> 00:21:25,440
implied volatility to get a good sense
隐含波动率

586
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,440
for roughly what the implied volatility
的大致情况有一个很好

587
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:28,880
would look like so i'm gonna move it
的了解，所以我要把它

588
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,080
from 40
从 40

589
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,159
to 33 so about almost 20 percent of the
移到 33 左右

590
00:21:34,159 --> 00:21:36,320
of the current implied volume i'm going
目前隐含交易量的近 20% 我

591
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,520
to take off and what this shows me
将起飞，这

592
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,280
is that the value of my option will
表明我的期权价值将

593
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:43,440
increase by 978
增加 978

594
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:44,360
or about
或大约

595
00:21:44,360 --> 00:21:48,000
179 profit if i get the directional view
179 利润，如果我得到正确的方向观点

596
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,880
correct and the stock jumps to 135
并且股票跳到 135

597
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,360
by the november 2nd expiration i'm sorry
到 11 月 2 日到期，我很抱歉

598
00:21:53,360 --> 00:21:56,320
by the november 2nd date and i factored
在 11 月 2 日之前，我

599
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,400
into the volatility crush of about a
将波动率压抑考虑到了

600
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,440
decline about seven percent here and j
大约 7% 的下降和 j

601
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,840
and you can use these sliders to see how
，您可以使用这些滑块来查看

602
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,080
time affects the value of your option as
时间如何影响您的期权价值

603
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,559
you can see you know on november 2nd
看  你知道在 11 月 2 日，

604
00:22:08,559 --> 00:22:10,400
because i'm trading a november 19th
因为我在现在和到期日之间交易 11 月 19 日的

605
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,720
option between now and the expiration
期权，

606
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:13,520
date

607
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,360
there's some value that's going to get

608
00:22:15,360 --> 00:22:16,320
lost

609
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,480
as i hold this to expiration and past
当我持有这个到期日并超过

610
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:20,720
the expiration date of 19th i'm not
19 日的到期日时，一些价值将会丢失，我

611
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,960
going to see anything any else changes
不会看到任何东西 其他

612
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,960
in terms of time because on november
时间会发生变化，因为在 11 月

613
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,280
19th that's when the value of my option
19 日，我的期权价值

614
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:28,559
is um

615
00:22:28,559 --> 00:22:30,799
is done right and you can also see what
是正确的，您还可以看到

616
00:22:30,799 --> 00:22:32,640
happens if volatility crash doesn't
如果波动率崩溃没有

617
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,559
happen how big of a difference does that
发生会发生什么，

618
00:22:34,559 --> 00:22:36,480
have on the value of your option as you
这对您的期权价值有多大影响 正如您

619
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,640
can see currently at 40 i'll make a
目前所看到的，在 40

620
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,400
thousand dollar profit but if it goes
美元时，我将赚取 1000 美元的利润，但如果它

621
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:44,720
down to 33 i'll make 9 978
下降到 33 美元，我将赚取 9 978 美元，

622
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,799
so volatility crush has an effect on
因此波动率压抑对

623
00:22:46,799 --> 00:22:49,039
your option but it's not
您的选择有影响，但影响不大，

624
00:22:49,039 --> 00:22:51,760
huge um so it's important to understand
嗯，因此了解 vega 很重要

625
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,080
that the vega is going to change the
将

626
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,559
value of your option by a small amount
少量改变您的期权

627
00:22:56,559 --> 00:22:58,400
theta is also going to change the value
价值 theta 也将少量改变

628
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,559
of your option by small amount what's
您的期权价值

629
00:23:00,559 --> 00:23:01,919
not going to change the value of your
不会少量改变您的

630
00:23:01,919 --> 00:23:04,240
option by a small amount is delta delta
期权价值的是 delta

631
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,880
has a huge effect on the value of your
delta 对 哟的价值 你的

632
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,640
option because if the stock only moves
选择，因为如果这里的股票只

633
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,400
up to 130
上涨到 130

634
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,880
here that's the difference between a 500
，那就是 500

635
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,280
profit and a thousand dollar profit so
美元的利润和 1000 美元的利润之间的差异，所以

636
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,840
you really have to understand roughly
你真的必须大致

637
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,679
how far you think the stock can move
了解你认为股票可以移动多远

638
00:23:19,679 --> 00:23:21,679
what's a realistic move and that's
什么是现实的举动，

639
00:23:21,679 --> 00:23:23,440
really where you can turn to the implied
这才是你真正可以转向的地方 到隐含

640
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,919
volatility option and we even have a
波动率选项，我们甚至有一个

641
00:23:25,919 --> 00:23:27,760
trading range simulator that gives you a
交易范围模拟器，可以让您

642
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:29,520
sense for how far can the stock
了解股票

643
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,760
potentially move between now and the
在现在和到期日之间可能会移动多远，

644
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,520
expiration date so if i move it to the
因此如果我将其移动到

645
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,840
november 19th expiration date i'll see
11 月 19 日的到期日，我会看到

646
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:37,960
that the one standard deviation move is
那个 标准差变动是

647
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,039
133 dollars that is potentially a
133 美元，

648
00:23:41,039 --> 00:23:43,279
reasonable target if i think the stock's
如果我认为该股

649
00:23:43,279 --> 00:23:44,960
going to make a big move so if i think
将大幅变动，那么这可能是一个合理的目标，所以如果我认为

650
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:45,760
by
到

651
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,840
november 19th
11 月 19

652
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:49,679
november 19th the stock can move up to
日 11 月 19 日，该股可以上涨至

653
00:23:49,679 --> 00:23:53,200
133 and the stock has some volatility
133 美元并且该股有一定的波动性，

654
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,000
crush this is probably a more realistic
这可能是一个

655
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,320
expectation as to what can happen

656
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,120
between now and expiration on a stock
关于像 amd 这样的股票从现在到到期之间会发生什么的更现实的期望

657
00:24:01,120 --> 00:24:02,880
like amd and
，

658
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,799
i'm just using a simple call option to
我只是使用一个简单的看涨期权来

659
00:24:04,799 --> 00:24:06,640
show you but you can use a debit spread
向您展示，但您可以使用您可以使用的借记利差

660
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,799
you can use a calendar a diagonal a
日历 对角线

661
00:24:08,799 --> 00:24:11,039
credit spread you can do all of these
信用利差 您可以

662
00:24:11,039 --> 00:24:13,600
things using our platform you can set up
使用我们的平台执行所有这些操作 您可以

663
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,159
different strategies side by side and
并排设置不同的策略，并

664
00:24:16,159 --> 00:24:18,480
see how they perform in this in this
查看它们在这种

665
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,520
scenario that if the stock reaches 133
情况下的表现，如果股票

666
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,760
by the november 19th expiration and
在 11 月 19 日到期并且

667
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,400
volatility comes down what is your
波动性到来时达到 133 你的

668
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,400
expected profit what is your expected
预期利润是多少 你的预期

669
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:29,600
loss

670
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,240
the credit spread risks 542 the debit
损失是多少 信用利差风险 542 借方

671
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,120
spread the call option was 542
利差 看涨期权是 542

672
00:24:35,120 --> 00:24:38,559
545 in the debit spread risk 713 and you
545 借方利差风险 713 你

673
00:24:38,559 --> 00:24:40,159
can kind of see what happens if the
可以看看如果

674
00:24:40,159 --> 00:24:41,520
stock moves higher how much do i
股票走高会发生什么我

675
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,440
potentially make what if it stays the
可能赚多少钱 如果它保持

676
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,520
same what if it moves lower how much am
不变会怎样 如果它走低

677
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,440
i risking these things are going to be
我要冒多少风险 这些事情

678
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,760
important for you to understand and it's
对您来说

679
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,840
just important to understand these three
很重要 理解这三个因素很重要

680
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,600
factors these three factors are going to
这三个因素将

681
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,120
change the value of your option around
改变您关于收益的选择权的价值

682
00:24:55,120 --> 00:24:56,720
earnings and the big thing you really
你真正需要调整的最重要的事情

683
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,120
have to adjust for is that volatility
是波动性

684
00:24:59,120 --> 00:25:02,080
crush um you know otherwise i think time
压碎，否则我认为

685
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,240
and price most traders are familiar with
大多数交易者都熟悉时间和价格，

686
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,240
but that volatility that's the component
但波动性就是

687
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,159
that i think is a little trickier so
我认为这个部分有点棘手，所以

688
00:25:08,159 --> 00:25:09,440
hopefully this gives you an
希望这能让您

689
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,360
understanding as to how volatility
了解波动性如何

690
00:25:11,360 --> 00:25:14,480
affects the value of your option so
影响您的期权价值，所以

691
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,799
let's now dive into
现在让我们深入研究

692
00:25:16,799 --> 00:25:18,640
uh you know how do you go about
一下，您知道如何

693
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,840
researching an earnings announcement and
研究收益公告，

694
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:23,360
so this is really where we start with
所以这就是我们真正的地方 从

695
00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:25,600
our earnings calendar because an
我们的收益日历开始，因为

696
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,000
earnings calendar can really help you
收益日历确实可以帮助

697
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,559
number one narrow down what symbols
您缩小

698
00:25:30,559 --> 00:25:32,400
should you pay attention to so we have
应该关注的符号

699
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,480
an earnings calendar that you can find

700
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,320
on the options play platform when you go
的

701
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,799
to education and resources which takes

702
00:25:38,799 --> 00:25:40,960
you to the options play hub and if you
范围 选项播放中心，如果

703
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:42,559
scroll down to the bottom of your screen
您向下滚动到屏幕底部，

704
00:25:42,559 --> 00:25:45,120
there is an earnings calendar tab and if
则会有一个收益日历选项卡，如果

705
00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:47,279
you click on the earnings calendar it's
您单击收益日历，

706
00:25:47,279 --> 00:25:49,120
going to give you a view that looks like
它将为您提供一个如下所示的视图

707
00:25:49,120 --> 00:25:50,400
this

708
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,159
and it might seem like a lot of things
，它可能看起来像很多

709
00:25:52,159 --> 00:25:53,919
at first but it's really easy to
东西 首先，但很容易

710
00:25:53,919 --> 00:25:55,520
understand you have your dates going
理解你的日期是

711
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,080
across right so chronologically you know
正确的，所以按时间顺序你

712
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,679
that today is the 20 uh the 21st this is
知道今天是 20 呃 21 日，

713
00:26:01,679 --> 00:26:04,080
today so obviously anything that's
今天很明显任何事情

714
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:05,440
that's happened in the past doesn't
过去发生的事情并不

715
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,279
apply you're really looking at stuff
适用 你真的在看

716
00:26:07,279 --> 00:26:09,120
that's that that are in the future so
那些在未来发生的事情 所以

717
00:26:09,120 --> 00:26:10,799
for example i might look at the stuff
例如我可能会看

718
00:26:10,799 --> 00:26:14,000
that's happening on the 22nd the 25th
22 日、25 日

719
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,159
the 26th those are really where i'm
和 26 日发生的事情 这些才是我真正

720
00:26:16,159 --> 00:26:18,159
going to focus my attention on when it
要去的地方 当您进入下周和下周的赚钱季节时，将我的注意力集中在

721
00:26:18,159 --> 00:26:20,960
comes to research now when you get into
现在进行研究的时候

722
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:22,799
the meat of earning season which is next

723
00:26:22,799 --> 00:26:25,039
week and the week after

724
00:26:25,039 --> 00:26:27,360
there's a lot of reports on a given day
，在某一天有很多报告，

725
00:26:27,360 --> 00:26:29,840
it's hard to know out of the hundreds of
很难从数百个

726
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,279
symbols where do you focus your
符号中知道你在哪里 把你的

727
00:26:31,279 --> 00:26:32,960
attention on and that's why we created
注意力集中在这就是为什么我们

728
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,840
this color-coded map for you it's color
为你创建了这个颜色编码的地图它是

729
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,480
coded based on liquidity so it's based
基于流动性的颜色编码所以它

730
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,400
on you have your dates up top so you
基于你把你的日期放在最上面所以你

731
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,320
know you know there's no need for me to
知道你知道我没有必要

732
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,080
look at these dates out here because
在这里查看这些日期，因为

733
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,480
these don't report until uh you know the
这些不会报告，直到你知道

734
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,080
following week i'm going to focus my
下周我将把我的

735
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,360
attention mostly on you know these here
注意力主要集中在你知道这些这里

736
00:26:51,360 --> 00:26:53,200
maybe some of these and maybe some of
也许其中一些也许其中一些是

737
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,799
these that's where i'm going to focus my
我将

738
00:26:54,799 --> 00:26:56,960
attention on researching and if you're
注意力集中在研究上的地方，如果你

739
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:58,799
really intent on researching you want to
真的很想重新 搜索您要

740
00:26:58,799 --> 00:27:00,480
make sure that you narrow down your list
确保首先缩小列表的范围，

741
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:01,840
first so the first thing you want to
因此您想知道的第一件事

742
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,159
know is on what day does it report and
是它在哪一天报告以及

743
00:27:04,159 --> 00:27:06,400
does it report before the market or
它是在市场之前还是

744
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,240
after the market so the ones that have
在市场之后报告，因此带有

745
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,559
the asterisk are the ones that report
星号的是那些

746
00:27:10,559 --> 00:27:12,320
before the market opening which means
在开市前报告，这

747
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,120
that you have to have a position open
意味着你必须在前一天之前开仓

748
00:27:15,120 --> 00:27:17,440
prior to the previous uh you know on
，嗯，你知道

749
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,919
during the previous day right so if ge
在前一天，所以如果 ge

750
00:27:19,919 --> 00:27:22,720
reports on the morning of the 26th you
在 26 日早上报告，你

751
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,640
have to have an open position on the
必须在

752
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,360
25th before you can get exposure to that
25 日之前开仓 可以接触到该

753
00:27:27,360 --> 00:27:29,039
earnings announcement so it's really
收益公告，因此

754
00:27:29,039 --> 00:27:30,159
important to know what day they're
了解他们

755
00:27:30,159 --> 00:27:32,559
reporting whether it's before a market a
报告的日期是在市场

756
00:27:32,559 --> 00:27:34,480
before or after the ones with an
之前还是之后非常重要 带

757
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,799
asterisks are the ones that are before
星号的那些是在

758
00:27:36,799 --> 00:27:38,320
the ones without the asterisks are the
没有星号之前的那些是在

759
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,880
ones that report after the close
之后报告的

760
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,039
next you want to look at liquidity so
接下来您要查看流动性，因此

761
00:27:43,039 --> 00:27:45,039
everything that's highlighted in green
以绿色突出显示的所有内容

762
00:27:45,039 --> 00:27:47,360
are what we consider very liquid symbols
都是我们认为非常流动的符号，

763
00:27:47,360 --> 00:27:49,600
those are the ones that i predominantly
这些符号是我主要

764
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,600
spend my time researching especially in
花时间研究的符号，尤其是

765
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,440
the meat of earning season where there
收入季节的核心，那里

766
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,840
are plenty of liquid symbols there's
有很多流动的符号

767
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:57,919
just no need for us to dig that deep
，我们现在没有必要深入

768
00:27:57,919 --> 00:28:00,480
into the less liquid symbols now as you
挖掘流动性较低的符号，因为你

769
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,000
get later and later into the earnings
越来越晚进入收入

770
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,440
season and there's fewer and fewer
季节，

771
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:04,880
reports if you're still trying to trade
如果你还在尝试，报告就会越来越少 为了交易

772
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,799
earnings season you may have to start
收益季节，您可能必须开始

773
00:28:06,799 --> 00:28:09,360
looking into those secondary less liquid
研究那些次要的流动性较低的

774
00:28:09,360 --> 00:28:11,440
symbols but during the meat of earnings
符号，但是在每天的收益季节期间，

775
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,840
season each day you can you have a
您可以拥有一个

776
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,000
finite list right so here i've narrowed
有限的列表，因此在这里我

777
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,000
down from the few hundred names that
从报告 26 的数百个名称中缩小了范围

778
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,039
report on the 26 to just in this
只是在这个

779
00:28:21,039 --> 00:28:24,240
particular case about 25 names or so to
特殊情况下，大约有 25 个左右的名字，可以查看 25 个左右的名字

780
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,840
look at and out of the 25 maybe
，其中可能有

781
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,720
10 or 12 of them i'm familiar with and
10 个或 12 个我熟悉，

782
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,799
i'm you know i know i can dig into the
我知道我知道我可以深入

783
00:28:32,799 --> 00:28:34,880
research and trade this is going to help
研究和交易这将是 帮助

784
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,120
me substantially narrow down the symbols
我大幅缩小

785
00:28:37,120 --> 00:28:38,559
that i take a look at so the earnings
我查看的符号的范围，因此收益

786
00:28:38,559 --> 00:28:41,120
calendar is always the first place i
日历始终

787
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,440
start all of my research with respect to
是我开始所有与

788
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:44,720
earnings
收益相关的研究的第一个地方，

789
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,399
once i have a specific symbol i want to
一旦我有一个特定的符号，我想

790
00:28:46,399 --> 00:28:48,320
take a look at this is really where we
看看这就是我们真正的地方

791
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,720
start digging into it and i always tell
开始  深入研究，我总是告诉

792
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:52,240
traders the first thing you should look
交易员，你

793
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,880
at in an earnings announcement is an
在收益公告中应该首先

794
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,880
understanding as to how the company is
了解公司

795
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,760
doing in terms of trends for revenue and
在收入趋势和

796
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:01,760
in terms of earnings because those are
收益方面的表现，因为

797
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,840
the things that are being reported in
这些是报告中的内容

798
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:05,919
this particular quarter and it's good to
这个特定的季度，很高兴

799
00:29:05,919 --> 00:29:06,720
know

800
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,320
how does the stock performing in
知道股票在

801
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,799
historical quarters so this is jpm jpm
历史季度的表现如何，所以这是

802
00:29:10,799 --> 00:29:12,399
just recorded last month
上个月刚刚记录的 jpm jpm

803
00:29:12,399 --> 00:29:14,559
and what might be surprising to most
可能令大多数

804
00:29:14,559 --> 00:29:16,720
traders is that just the consistent
交易者感到惊讶的是，

805
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,600
downtrend we've seen in revenue decline
我们在收入下降

806
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,840
even prior to the pandemic so if you
之前看到的持续下降趋势 大流行所以如果你

807
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:23,440
look at prior to the pandemic we were
看看大流行之前我们

808
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,679
seeing revenue decline and this is only
看到收入下降，这只是

809
00:29:25,679 --> 00:29:28,320
continued and what you know we have this
继续，你知道我们

810
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,240
research here now you can find these
现在在这里进行这项研究，你可以从几乎所有你可以访问的经纪公司中找到这些

811
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,960
types of charts and numbers from pretty
类型的图表和数字

812
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:34,480
much all of your brokerage firms you

813
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,480
have access to financial statements you
对于财务报表，您

814
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,960
have access to historical um charts that
可以访问历史嗯图表，这些图表

815
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,440
show you just a general trend
向您展示了一个总体

816
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,840
it's really important just to know is
趋势真正重要的是要

817
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,760
the company growing their revenues are
知道公司的收入是否在增长 ues

818
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:47,279
they growing their earnings because
他们是否增加了他们的收入，因为

819
00:29:47,279 --> 00:29:48,880
those are the two primary things you

820
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:50,240
should be looking for if you think as
如果您认为

821
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:51,760
companies beating because they have a
公司

822
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,159
track record of performing well in terms
在

823
00:29:54,159 --> 00:29:56,480
of growing their revenues or is a
增长，因为它们在增加收入方面表现良好，或者是

824
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,240
company you know in this particular case
您在这种特殊情况下了解的公司，那么这是您应该寻找的两个主要因素

825
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,399
like jp morgan they're actually making
jp Morgan 他们实际上

826
00:30:00,399 --> 00:30:02,159
less and less money in terms of revenue
在收入方面赚的钱越来越少，

827
00:30:02,159 --> 00:30:04,880
but they're increasing their their their
但他们正在增加他们的

828
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:05,919
earnings
收入，

829
00:30:05,919 --> 00:30:07,360
you know this really tells me that's
你知道这真的告诉我，

830
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,840
more coming from cutting expenses rather
更多的是来自削减开支而

831
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:11,600
than really growing their company and
不是真正发展他们的公司，

832
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,679
that's not particularly what i love
这并不是我特别喜欢

833
00:30:13,679 --> 00:30:15,360
looking for going into an earnings
看的 进入收益

834
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,080
announcement so it's just important to
公告所以重要的是

835
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:19,200
you know at the end of the day you're
你知道在一天结束时

836
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,360
not going to be able to from this chart
你将无法从这张图表中

837
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,039
know how what a company is going to do
知道公司下个季度将如何做，

838
00:30:23,039 --> 00:30:25,120
next quarter but it gives you some
但它为你提供了一些

839
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:26,159
overall
整体

840
00:30:26,159 --> 00:30:28,960
context of how is the company performing
背景

841
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:30,960
from a from a financial perspective
从财务角度

842
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:32,320
perspective because that's what you're
来看，这家公司的表现如何，因为这

843
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,240
guessing right you're guessing whether
就是你猜对的，你在猜测

844
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,240
the company has a good shot of of
这家公司是否有好的机会

845
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,559
beating earnings or not now jp morgan
无论是否超过收益，您都知道摩根大通

846
00:30:38,559 --> 00:30:40,399
you know as you can see

847
00:30:40,399 --> 00:30:42,080
struggled for a few quarters but really

848
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:43,600
started to accelerate their earnings

849
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,159
over the past three quarters and i
在过去的三个季度中挣扎了几个季度，但在过去三个季度中真正开始加速他们的收益，我

850
00:30:46,159 --> 00:30:48,159
usually look at trailing 12 months i
通常会查看过去 12 个月的情况，我

851
00:30:48,159 --> 00:30:49,919
usually don't look at individual
通常不会查看单个

852
00:30:49,919 --> 00:30:51,600
quarters because there's a lot of noise
季度，因为有

853
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,279
going from one quarter to the next
从一个季度到下一个季度会有很多噪音，

854
00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:55,360
quarter so when you look at trailing 12
所以当你看到过去 12

855
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:56,640
months what you're looking at is a
个月时，你看到的

856
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,200
summary of last four quarters so when i
是过去四个季度的总结，所以

857
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,679
see that that whoops when i see that jp
当我看到

858
00:31:01,679 --> 00:31:05,120
morgan has made 128 billion dollars
摩根大通赚了 1280 亿美元时，那真是太棒了 美元

859
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,000
that's referring to making 128 billion
是指过去四个季度赚了 1280 亿美元

860
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,880
over the last four quarters combined
，

861
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,240
this

862
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,480
filters out some of the seasonality if
如果

863
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:16,559
you see someone especially the consumer
您看到有人，尤其是与消费者

864
00:31:16,559 --> 00:31:18,320
related stocks they made most of their
相关的股票，他们

865
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,320
profits in that last quarter during
在上个季度在圣诞节期间赚取了大部分利润，并且赚得

866
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:21,919
christmas season and they don't make a
不多，那么这会过滤掉一些季节性因素

867
00:31:21,919 --> 00:31:25,039
lot of money in q1 so when you when you
第一季度的资金，所以当你

868
00:31:25,039 --> 00:31:26,880
see those big jumps and from quarter
看到那些大的跳跃和一个季度一个

869
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,960
over quarter it's hard to really get a
季度的增长时，很难真正

870
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,200
sense for whether a company is trending
了解一家公司

871
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:32,799
in the right direction or not so that's
是否朝着正确的方向发展 所以这就是

872
00:31:32,799 --> 00:31:35,600
why i use trailing 12 months trailing 12
为什么我使用追踪 12 个月追踪 12

873
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:36,480
months
个月

874
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:37,200
um

875
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,399
smooths out that seasonality um
um 消除

876
00:31:40,399 --> 00:31:42,960
across certain sectors so you know many
了某些

877
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:44,720
sectors you just have that seasonality
部门的季节性

878
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,080
where a company books most of their

879
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,640
profits in a specific quarter um and by

880
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,120
using trailing 12 months you're you're
你是不是在

881
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,519
um smoothing out that um so what i'm
抹平那个嗯所以我

882
00:31:53,519 --> 00:31:55,600
really seeing is just an overall trend
真正看到的只是一个整体趋势，

883
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,679
even though individual quarters they may
即使个别季度之间可能

884
00:31:57,679 --> 00:32:00,399
have quite a bit of noise in between and
会有相当多的噪音，而且

885
00:32:00,399 --> 00:32:02,640
earnings also earnings is extremely
收益也非常

886
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,120
noisy and the best way to kind of
嘈杂，是最好的方式

887
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,039
cancel out that noise to some degree or
在某种程度上消除这种噪音或消除

888
00:32:07,039 --> 00:32:08,960
smooth it out is by looking at trailing
噪音是通过查看过去

889
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:10,640
12 months how much money did the company
12 个月该

890
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,640
make in the last 12 months and what does
公司在过去 12 个月赚了多少钱，以及

891
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,720
that compare to the previous 12 months
与前 12 个月

892
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,960
are they consistently growing that and
相比，它们是否一直在增长，

893
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,880
jp morgan is consistently growing
摩根大通一直在增长 增长的

894
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,120
earnings which arguably between the two
收益可以说是两个

895
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,519
numbers is the more important number
数字之间的更重要的数字

896
00:32:23,519 --> 00:32:25,840
profit is more important than revenue
利润比收入更重要，

897
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:27,919
but i generally don't like to see a
但我通常不喜欢看到一家

898
00:32:27,919 --> 00:32:29,919
company that's generating more and more
公司产生更多的收益

899
00:32:29,919 --> 00:32:32,559
profits with declining revenue because
在收入下降的情况下获得更多利润，因为

900
00:32:32,559 --> 00:32:34,559
that tells me that the company is doing
这告诉我公司做错了

901
00:32:34,559 --> 00:32:36,640
something wrong that their revenues are
什么，他们的收入正在

902
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,720
declining but their revenue but they're
下降，但他们的收入但他们

903
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,960
still able to manufacture earnings those
仍然能够制造收益，

904
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:42,399
are really more what i would consider
这些实际上更多的是我

905
00:32:42,399 --> 00:32:44,399
manufactured earnings that can go on for
认为可以持续

906
00:32:44,399 --> 00:32:46,320
quite some time but at some point
相当长的制造收益 有一段时间，但在某些时候

907
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,000
there's a limit as to how much you can
，您可以赚取多少收入是有限制的，

908
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,000
manufacture earnings does that make

909
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:51,600
sense please type three into the chat

910
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:56,200
window if that makes sense to you
如果这对您有意义，请在聊天窗口中输入三个

911
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,480
perfect so again first and foremost
完美所以再次首先

912
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,559
understanding the fundamentals
了解基本面，

913
00:33:02,559 --> 00:33:04,080
then you can look at kind of what the
然后您可以看看

914
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,480
expectations are for this upcoming
对即将到来的季度的期望是什么，

915
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,159
quarter right because this so far when
因为到目前为止，当

916
00:33:08,159 --> 00:33:09,679
you look at charts like this this is
您查看这样的图表时，这

917
00:33:09,679 --> 00:33:11,760
just historical analysis understanding
只是历史分析，了解

918
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,519
what's happened in the past it's also
过去发生的事情，

919
00:33:13,519 --> 00:33:14,640
important to understand what are
了解分析师的期望是什么也很重要，

920
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:18,159
analysts expectations uh going to be and
嗯，

921
00:33:18,159 --> 00:33:20,399
you know you there's plenty of resources
您知道有很多 这方面的

922
00:33:20,399 --> 00:33:21,919
for this as well pretty much every
资源以及几乎

923
00:33:21,919 --> 00:33:24,159
single brokerage firm for some kind of
每个经纪公司都提供的某种

924
00:33:24,159 --> 00:33:25,600
research portal that gives you an
研究门户网站 您是否

925
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,519
understanding of what the analyst's
了解分析师的

926
00:33:27,519 --> 00:33:30,399
expectations are i use a platform called
期望我使用了一个名为 estimize 的平台

927
00:33:30,399 --> 00:33:32,159
estimize which
，

928
00:33:32,159 --> 00:33:34,080
gives me access not only to the wall
它不仅使我能够获得

929
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:35,679
street consensus which is what the

930
00:33:35,679 --> 00:33:38,320
analysts are expecting but also a a
分析师所期望的华尔街共识，而且还

931
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,880
consensus across the users of the
获得了

932
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,760
estimized platform of which anyone can
任何人都可以加入的估算平台用户的共识

933
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:45,760
join this platform submit their
这个平台提交了他们

934
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,519
expectations for the quarter whether
对本季度的预期，无论

935
00:33:47,519 --> 00:33:49,360
they think the stock's going to beat or
他们认为股票会上涨还是

936
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,399
miss and they it it basically takes into
下跌，它基本上考虑了

937
00:33:52,399 --> 00:33:54,640
account all of those views and gives you
所有这些观点，并让

938
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,799
a sense for whether a company perhaps
您了解一家公司是否

939
00:33:56,799 --> 00:33:59,120
may be beating uh or missing and
可能会上涨或下跌，

940
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:00,880
generally speaking what we're most
一般来说是什么 我们最

941
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,279
interested in is not necessarily the
感兴趣的不一定是

942
00:34:03,279 --> 00:34:05,760
estimate itself but we're interested in
估计本身，但我们感兴趣

943
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,000
how that estimate has changed over time
的是估计随着时间的推移如何变化

944
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:09,918
we tend to see that when there's a lot
我们倾向于看到，当收益公告中有

945
00:34:09,918 --> 00:34:11,679
of upward revisions going into an
很多向上修正时

946
00:34:11,679 --> 00:34:13,599
earnings announcement there's a higher

947
00:34:13,599 --> 00:34:15,199
chance that the stock is going to beat
，股票的可能性更高

948
00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:17,040
earnings when there's an estimate when
当有大量估计修正下行时，将超过收益，

949
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:18,639
there are plenty of estimate revisions

950
00:34:18,639 --> 00:34:20,800
to the downside so maybe the you know we
所以也许你知道我们开始了

951
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,960
started off expecting that the company
d off 期望

952
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:24,879
was going to make 80 cents but you know
公司将赚 80 美分，但你知道

953
00:34:24,879 --> 00:34:26,320
over the past few weeks that's now
在过去的几周里，现在

954
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,879
declined to 73 cents that's not a good
下降到 73 美分，这不是一个好

955
00:34:28,879 --> 00:34:31,599
sign or vice versa if the company if
兆头，反之亦然，如果公司

956
00:34:31,599 --> 00:34:33,119
everyone expected that they're going to
每个人都预计他们会

957
00:34:33,119 --> 00:34:35,520
make 66 cents but now over the past few
赚 66 美分，但是 现在在过去的

958
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,560
weeks that's now increased to 73 cents
几周里，现在已经增加到 73 美分

959
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,960
that's a good sign so estimate revisions
，这是一个好兆头，所以估计修正

960
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,280
are important

961
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,760
factor in determining whether a stock
是决定一只股票是否

962
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,079
potentially is going to beat or miss and
可能会上涨或失败的重要因素，并且

963
00:34:48,079 --> 00:34:50,239
there's been a lot of empirical research

964
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,639
on this front to show that estimate
在这方面有很多实证研究来表明估计

965
00:34:52,639 --> 00:34:54,639
estimate revisions heading into an
估计 收益公告的修订，

966
00:34:54,639 --> 00:34:55,918
earnings announcement especially in the
尤其是在

967
00:34:55,918 --> 00:34:58,320
last couple of weeks is many times a
过去几周内，很多时候是一个

968
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,119
very good predictor of whether a company
很好的预测指标，可以很好地预测一家公司是否

969
00:35:01,119 --> 00:35:03,440
may beat or miss on a specific earnings
可能会超过或错过特定的收益

970
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:04,560
announcement
公告，

971
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:06,400
then you know so so that's kind of the
那么您就知道了，所以这就是

972
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,720
fundamental factors right and those are
基本因素，这些都是

973
00:35:08,720 --> 00:35:11,119
at the end of the day these are more
在 归根结底，这些更像是

974
00:35:11,119 --> 00:35:13,280
art than science if you will it's really
艺术而不是科学，如果您愿意的话，这实际上

975
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,680
just having a sense for how a company
只是了解公司

976
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:16,800
has been doing and what your
的运作方式以及您

977
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,040
expectations are going forward
对未来的期望

978
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:20,560
and there's not a lot of data behind
这背后没有很多数据

979
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,400
that but when you look at the stock
，但是当您查看股票

980
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:23,760
chart
图表时

981
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,920
that's effectively the entire market
，实际上整个市场

982
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:27,920
weighing in what their thoughts are
都在权衡他们

983
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:29,599
going into an earnings announcement and
对收益

984
00:35:29,599 --> 00:35:31,280
there's quite a bit of information that
公告的想法，并且

985
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,359
you can kind of gather from that with
您可以从中收集到相当多的信息

986
00:35:33,359 --> 00:35:36,079
from looking just at the chart itself
只看图表本身

987
00:35:36,079 --> 00:35:38,640
and what you know and what's more
以及你所知道的以及

988
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,440
important for me is not unless so is
对我来说更重要的不是，除非

989
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,400
less so the chart itself but relative to
图表本身不那么重要，而是相

990
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,400
the sector and relative to the market
对于行业和相对于市场而言

991
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,079
that is really kind of what i
，这确实是我

992
00:35:48,079 --> 00:35:50,480
predominantly look for going into an
主要寻找的

993
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,079
earnings announcement i have two charts
收益 公告 我有两张图表

994
00:35:52,079 --> 00:35:53,839
here are two semiconductor stocks i have
这里有两只半导体股票

995
00:35:53,839 --> 00:35:56,079
texas instruments and i have amd i'm
我有德州仪器 我有

996
00:35:56,079 --> 00:35:57,520
going to show you both
我要向你们展示这两个

997
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:58,480
and

998
00:35:58,480 --> 00:35:59,839
what you're going to see here is that
你将在这里看到

999
00:35:59,839 --> 00:36:02,320
texas instruments recently made a new
德州仪器最近创下

1000
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,119
all-time high uh the last high was two
历史新高 呃上次 高

1001
00:36:05,119 --> 00:36:07,920
of basically just shy of 201 and we
点基本上是 201 的两个，我们

1002
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,520
recently today just
最近今天刚刚

1003
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,640
pierced above that to 201 19. so today
突破到 201 19。所以今天

1004
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,040
texas instruments made a new all-time
德州仪器创下了

1005
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,160
high so higher high in price but what i
历史新高，因此价格更高，但我

1006
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,480
have here is a chart of texas
在这里拥有的是

1007
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,440
instruments relative to the s p 500 and
德州仪器相对于 sp 500 的图表以及

1008
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,520
relative to the technology sector you
相对于技术行业的图表，您

1009
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,520
can use sector you can use semiconductor
可以使用行业您可以使用半导体

1010
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:28,640
industry
行业，

1011
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,960
if you want to get more granular but the
如果您想获得更详细的信息，但

1012
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:32,960
important thing to me is the fact that
对我来说重要的是，

1013
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,599
as texas instruments made a new high
随着德州仪器创下新

1014
00:36:35,599 --> 00:36:37,920
it failed to make a new high relative to
高 未能创出相对于市场的

1015
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:39,040
the market

1016
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,359
and failed to make a new high relative
新高，也未能创出相对于其行业的新高

1017
00:36:41,359 --> 00:36:44,320
to its sector what this is telling me is
这告诉我的是

1018
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,079
that despite the fact that the stock
，尽管该股票

1019
00:36:46,079 --> 00:36:48,400
made a new recent high over the past
在过去一个月左右创下了近期新高，但

1020
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,000
month or so

1021
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,079
it's actually underperforming the market
它实际上表现不佳

1022
00:36:52,079 --> 00:36:54,560
and underperforming its sector so
并且表现不佳，所以

1023
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:56,400
imagine if you're a portfolio manager
想象一下，如果你是一名投资组合经理，你的投资组合中

1024
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,079
you have hundreds of stocks in your
有数百只

1025
00:36:58,079 --> 00:37:00,560
portfolio and here's a stock that can't
股票，这是一只跟不上市场的股票，

1026
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,320
keep up with the market they can't keep
他们

1027
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,000
up with its sector
跟不上它的行业，

1028
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,599
think about you know is this a stock
想想你知道这是一个

1029
00:37:05,599 --> 00:37:06,640
that you think you're going to keep

1030
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,119
around in your portfolio for a long long

1031
00:37:09,119 --> 00:37:11,359
time if the stock continues to
如果股票继续

1032
00:37:11,359 --> 00:37:13,280
underperform its sector and its market
跑输其行业和市场，

1033
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:14,880
especially going into an earnings
尤其是在

1034
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:16,720
announcement
发布收益公告时，您认为您将在投资组合中长期保留的股票，

1035
00:37:16,720 --> 00:37:18,000
this is really some of the information
这是真实的

1036
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:19,440
that i think is most important to look
我认为对于收益公告最重要的一些信息，

1037
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,280
at going into an earnings announcement

1038
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,040
how is it performing relative to the
它相对于市场的表现如何，

1039
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:24,400
market because stocks that are
因为股票

1040
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:26,400
underperforming the market why should i
表现不佳，为什么我

1041
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,000
keep texas instruments that's gonna give
要保留德州工具，这将使

1042
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,680
me a one percent gain over the last
我比

1043
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,680
month if the market is up four or five
上个月，如果市场在那个月上涨了 4% 或 5

1044
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:32,960
percent over that month or the
%，或者

1045
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:34,960
technology sector that it's part of is
它所属的科技板块

1046
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,040
up for five percent and this is really
上涨了 5%，这

1047
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:38,480
where you have to think about how
就是你真正需要考虑的

1048
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,880
institutional money managers think they
机构资金经理如何

1049
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:42,320
only want to own stocks that are
认为他们只想拥有

1050
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:43,920
outperforming the market because that's
跑赢市场，因为那

1051
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,000
what they are paid to do they're they're
是他们得到报酬的原因 他们是

1052
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,000
paid to outperform the market and stocks
为了跑赢大市而付出代价

1053
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,000
that don't outperform the market those

1054
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:51,440
are not the ones that are going to be in

1055
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:53,920
favor conversely if we look at amd

1056
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,320
another semiconductor stock we see
的 半导体股票我们

1057
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,640
similar price action in terms of amd
看到类似的价格走势，AMD

1058
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:01,040
recently making a higher high but what
最近创出更高的高位，但

1059
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:02,880
you see here is over the past couple of
您在这里看到的是过去

1060
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,920
weeks amd has outperformed the market
几周 amd 的表现优于

1061
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,960
and has outperformed its sector so this
市场 d 的表现优于其行业，因此这

1062
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:10,160
is a stock
是一只

1063
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,640
that performing well and not only
表现良好的股票，不仅

1064
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,720
performing well performing well relative
表现良好，而且相

1065
00:38:14,720 --> 00:38:16,400
to the other stocks that i own in my
对于我在我的

1066
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,240
portfolio or the other stocks that i
投资组合中拥有的其他股票或

1067
00:38:18,240 --> 00:38:21,599
have in my uh in my asset management
我在我的资产管理

1068
00:38:21,599 --> 00:38:23,680
company right think blackrock think all
公司中拥有的其他股票而言表现良好，对吧 think blackrock think

1069
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:25,760
of these major firms that have made the
所有这些管理着

1070
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,320
billions of dollars of under billions of
数十亿

1071
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,160
dollars of assets under management they
美元资产的大型公司都

1072
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:31,359
have hundreds of stocks in their
在他们的投资组合中拥有数百只股票

1073
00:38:31,359 --> 00:38:32,400
portfolio

1074
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,079
what are they more likely to hold going
他们更有可能持有

1075
00:38:34,079 --> 00:38:35,440
into earnings a stock that's
什么股票才能盈利 一只股票的

1076
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,280
outperforming the rest of their holdings
表现优于其持有的其余股票

1077
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,280
or a stock that's underperforming the
或 股票表现逊于

1078
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:40,880
rest of their holdings and this is
他们持有的其他股票，

1079
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:42,640
something that i that i look for almost
这是我现在几乎

1080
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:44,800
in every single one of my
在我的每一个

1081
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,680
earnings place now this does not mean
收益地方都在寻找的东西，这并不

1082
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:49,440
that the market is going that it's going
意味着市场

1083
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,560
to outperform uh the uh it's going to
会跑赢呃呃它会

1084
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,240
beat estimates and it doesn't
超过预期 这

1085
00:38:54,240 --> 00:38:56,000
necessarily even mean that when the
甚至并不一定意味着，

1086
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,480
stock if the stock does beat estimates
如果股票确实超过预期，

1087
00:38:58,480 --> 00:38:59,920
then it's going to rise because
那么它就会上涨，因为

1088
00:38:59,920 --> 00:39:01,599
sometimes we see stocks beat estimates
有时我们会看到股票超过 es 时间

1089
00:39:01,599 --> 00:39:03,839
and the stock declines right so this is
和股票下跌的权利所以这

1090
00:39:03,839 --> 00:39:05,760
really some of the
真的是一些

1091
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:07,359
science and the art if you will that
科学和艺术，如果你愿意，

1092
00:39:07,359 --> 00:39:08,640
you're playing with
你

1093
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:10,240
at the end of the day you don't have a
在一天结束的时候玩，你没有

1094
00:39:10,240 --> 00:39:12,160
crystal ball but these are the different
水晶球，但这些

1095
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:13,440
things that you can look for to
是你可以看的不同的东西 因为

1096
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,680
hopefully help stack the cards in your
希望能帮助你把牌

1097
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,520
favor the more of these things you can

1098
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:19,119
stack in your favor the higher the
叠起来

1099
00:39:19,119 --> 00:39:21,040
probability you'll be able to get the

1100
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:22,800
directional view right so looking at

1101
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,400
relative strength to the market and

1102
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,800
sector is really looking at what is the

1103
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:28,800
market telling you about this particular
市场会告诉您有关这只特定

1104
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:30,880
stock and their chances of beating
股票的信息以及它们超过收益的机会，

1105
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:32,320
earnings because you're likely going to
因为您可能会

1106
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,359
see more buyers of stocks that they that
看到更多的买家购买

1107
00:39:35,359 --> 00:39:37,280
the market thinks is going to beat and
了市场认为会击败

1108
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,359
less likely buying of stock that that
的股票，而购买市场认为会击败的股票的可能性较小

1109
00:39:39,359 --> 00:39:41,440
the market thinks is not going to be and
不会，

1110
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,680
here's a prime example of texas
这里是

1111
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:46,160
instruments versus amd two semiconductor
德州仪器与 amd 两只半导体

1112
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,560
stocks that are both reporting next week
股票的主要例子，它们都在下周报告

1113
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,079
clear difference in terms of price
价格表现方面的明显差异，

1114
00:39:50,079 --> 00:39:52,400
performance telling you something about
告诉您

1115
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:54,800
how the market is expecting these two
有关 m  arket 预计这两只

1116
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,520
stocks to play out
股票会发挥作用，

1117
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:58,960
keep in mind the markets are wrong
请记住，市场有时是错误

1118
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:00,880
sometimes right and that's why we see
的，这就是为什么当市场出错时，我们会看到

1119
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:02,560
big moves in the underlying stock when
基础股票的大幅波动，

1120
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:04,640
the stock when the market gets it wrong

1121
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:07,359
because the market effectively mispriced
因为市场实际上错误地定价

1122
00:40:07,359 --> 00:40:09,680
what is going to happen but that is how
了将要发生的事情，但是 是

1123
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:11,440
you can you can try to get some
您如何尝试

1124
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:13,280
information from what is the market
从市场

1125
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:14,480
thinking going into an earnings
对收益公告的想法中获取一些信息

1126
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,160
announcement does that make sense please
是否有意义，请

1127
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,160
type 4 into the chat window if that
在聊天窗口中输入 4 如果这

1128
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:21,040
makes sense to you
对您有意义

1129
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,880
and lastly i cannot help but
，最后我无法帮助

1130
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,640
and i i i can't stress this enough um
，iii 不能 强调这一点，嗯

1131
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:30,640
and i say this across you know whether
，我这么说，你知道你是否

1132
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:31,839
you're trading earnings whether you're
在交易收益，无论你

1133
00:40:31,839 --> 00:40:34,079
not trading earnings just investing in
不是在交易收益，只是投资于

1134
00:40:34,079 --> 00:40:35,440
different stocks
不同的股票，

1135
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:36,800
understand what a company does
了解公司从根本上做什么，

1136
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,040
fundamentally never trade a stock never
从不交易股票，从不

1137
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:40,960
invest in a stock never
投资股票，从不

1138
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:42,560
buy an option on a stock if you don't
购买期权 股票，如果你不

1139
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,160
know what the company does
知道这家公司做什么，

1140
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:45,440
um
嗯，

1141
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,280
you know and you know you all trade at
你知道，你知道你都在

1142
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:48,720
brokerage firms that provide you with
为你提供

1143
00:40:48,720 --> 00:40:50,720
research use that research if you're
研究的经纪公司交易，如果你

1144
00:40:50,720 --> 00:40:52,240
going to buy a stock if you're going to
打算购买，请使用该研究 如果你打算

1145
00:40:52,240 --> 00:40:54,640
buy an option on a stock at least know
购买股票期权，至少

1146
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:55,839
what it does
知道它的作用，

1147
00:40:55,839 --> 00:40:57,839
because that that can sometimes just
因为这有时

1148
00:40:57,839 --> 00:41:00,480
give you that that conviction of whether
会让你确信

1149
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,560
this is the stock that's right for your
这是否适合你的投资组合的股票，

1150
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,599
portfolio or maybe you know you know you
或者你知道你知道你

1151
00:41:05,599 --> 00:41:06,800
might have read something somewhere
可能拥有 在某个地方读一些东西

1152
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:08,400
where you just think that you know hey
，你只是认为你知道嘿，

1153
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:10,000
this is not the type of company that i
这不是我

1154
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:11,520
think is going to do very well in this
认为在这种环境下会做得很好的公司类型

1155
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,040
environment and sometimes that comes
，有时这

1156
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,440
down to gut feel but if you don't have
归结为直觉，但如果你没有

1157
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:16,960
this information you're never going to
这些信息，你就是 永远

1158
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,200
be able to make that decision right so
无法做出正确的决定，所以

1159
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,520
you see a company like amd where you
你会看到像 amd 这样的公司，在那里你

1160
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,280
might see more and more of their chips
可能会看到越来越多的个人电脑芯片

1161
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:25,680
in in pcs you see that they're mostly in
，你会看到它们主要用于

1162
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:27,200
server and cloud chips and they're
服务器和云芯片，并且他们正在

1163
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:28,960
making bigger bigger market share and
创造更大的市场 共享和

1164
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,920
cloud cloud um computing and you know
云计算，你

1165
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,000
that cloud computing is extremely strong
知道云计算非常强大，

1166
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:35,280
because maybe you're invested in
因为也许你投资了

1167
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,280
microsoft and amazon and
微软、亚马逊和

1168
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:37,920
and

1169
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,079
salesforce and you know that amd is one
salesforce，你知道 amd 是其中

1170
00:41:40,079 --> 00:41:42,240
of the you know the the chips that power
之一，你知道为所有这些提供动力的芯片

1171
00:41:42,240 --> 00:41:43,839
all of that you're more likely to have
更有可能

1172
00:41:43,839 --> 00:41:45,920
some conviction behind this versus when
在这背后有一些信念，而不是当

1173
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:47,440
you look at texas instruments they don't
您查看 texas 仪器时，他们不

1174
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:48,960
make any of those types of chips they
制造任何这些类型的芯片 他们

1175
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,680
make very low processes low processing
制造非常低的流程 低处理

1176
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:53,599
type chips and there's demand for that
类型的芯片 并且

1177
00:41:53,599 --> 00:41:55,839
as well but you know this also helps you
对此也有需求，但您知道这也有助于

1178
00:41:55,839 --> 00:41:58,560
just understand why you are bullish
您 了解为什么你

1179
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,640
about a specific stock or why you think
看好某只股票，或者为什么你认为

1180
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:02,400
a stock may have a chance of
一只股票可能有机会

1181
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,480
outperforming the rest of their peers
超越其他同行

1182
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:05,680
and the only way you can make that
，唯一的方法

1183
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:07,839
conviction or make that guess if you

1184
00:42:07,839 --> 00:42:09,680
will is by understanding what the
就是了解

1185
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,160
company does so i encourage you to read
公司的行为 我鼓励您阅读

1186
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,160
this research it's available to you by
这项研究，

1187
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:15,680
pretty much all of the major broker

1188
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,560
terms whether you get it from cfra or s
无论您是从 cfra 或 sp 或morningstar 获得的，几乎所有主要的经纪商条款都提供给您，

1189
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,200
p or morningstar or you know there's a
或者您知道有

1190
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,040
variety of research firms that provide
各种研究公司提供

1191
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,440
this type of content that are available
此类内容

1192
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,359
to you for free from your broker terms
可供您使用 从您的经纪人条款中免费

1193
00:42:27,359 --> 00:42:29,359
read that stuff it's going to help you
阅读这些内容，

1194
00:42:29,359 --> 00:42:31,920
become a better investor overall if you
如果您

1195
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,400
do understand what the company actually
确实了解公司的实际

1196
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:35,839
does you know especially in these high
情况，那么它会帮助您成为更好的投资者，尤其是在这些高 h

1197
00:42:35,839 --> 00:42:37,760
growth tech startups i see a lot of
成长型科技初创公司 我看到很多

1198
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:40,000
traders trade or invest in stocks they
交易者交易或投资股票，

1199
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,319
have no idea what the product is
他们不知道产品是什么，

1200
00:42:42,319 --> 00:42:45,040
and that's really kind of a disservice

1201
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:46,880
in my opinion to invest or trade in
在我看来，投资或交易

1202
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:48,800
stuff that you don't know what they do
你不知道他们用什么做的东西真的是一种伤害

1203
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:50,319
so with that

1204
00:42:50,319 --> 00:42:51,839
um hopefully i'll be able to show you
嗯，希望我能在

1205
00:42:51,839 --> 00:42:53,599
just one more example here and i'll go
这里再给你看一个例子，我会

1206
00:42:53,599 --> 00:42:55,760
back to texas instruments so if i'm
回到德州仪器，所以如果我在

1207
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:57,440
looking at texas instruments and i see
看德州仪器，我

1208
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,040
how it's underperforming the broader
看到它在这里的表现如何低于更广泛的

1209
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:00,880
markets here this is really where i
市场，这真的是我

1210
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:02,720
might be looking at a stock like texas
可能的地方 看着像德州仪器

1211
00:43:02,720 --> 00:43:04,560
instruments

1212
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:05,680
and

1213
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:07,440
look at this particular stock and maybe
这样的股票，看看这只特定的股票，也许会

1214
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,359
say you know i don't think the stock is
说你知道我认为这只股票

1215
00:43:09,359 --> 00:43:10,160
going to

1216
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,160
to beat earnings i think it was going to
不会超过收益 我认为它

1217
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:14,720
be more modest um and
会更加温和，

1218
00:43:14,720 --> 00:43:17,760
we all saw what happened with um
我们都看到了发生的事情

1219
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,800
ibm here last week um so
ibm 上周在这里，所以

1220
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:22,560
or yesterday rather maybe you want to
或昨天，也许你想在

1221
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:24,319
take a more neutral view here you might
这里采取更中立的观点，你可能

1222
00:43:24,319 --> 00:43:26,160
want to sell a credit spread or
想出售信用利差或

1223
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:27,920
something like that and you can use this
类似的东西，你可以再次使用这个

1224
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:29,760
tool again to
工具来

1225
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:31,520
take a look at buying a put versus
看看购买看跌期权与

1226
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,359
selling a credit spread versus buying a
出售信用证 点差与购买

1227
00:43:33,359 --> 00:43:35,359
debit spread anticipating what the
de 位价差

1228
00:43:35,359 --> 00:43:37,359
potential moves could be using the
使用

1229
00:43:37,359 --> 00:43:39,680
trading range simulator you can simulate
您可以

1230
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,079
based on the november 19th expiration
根据 11 月 19 日

1231
00:43:42,079 --> 00:43:44,240
the downside move the expected move is
到期模拟的交易区间模拟器预测潜在变动 下行变动 预期变动

1232
00:43:44,240 --> 00:43:47,200
about 187 and a half and you can use
约为 187 个半，您可以将

1233
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,200
those as potential targets meaning if
这些用作潜在目标，这意味着如果

1234
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:50,400
you'd think that the stock's going to
您认为 股票将

1235
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,760
reach 175 guess what that's not likely
达到 175 猜猜这不太

1236
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:55,760
to happen at least not by the november
可能发生，至少不会在 11 月

1237
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,400
19th expiration uh more realistic was
19 日到期 呃更现实的

1238
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:00,720
that 187 and a half that's more
是 187 半是更

1239
00:44:00,720 --> 00:44:03,119
realistic expectations so don't go
现实的期望 所以不要

1240
00:44:03,119 --> 00:44:04,720
moving this stuff down here and saying
把这些东西移到这里说

1241
00:44:04,720 --> 00:44:08,079
oh i know i can make 159 return yes
哦，我知道我 可以得到 159 的回报 是的

1242
00:44:08,079 --> 00:44:10,560
that's possible but not very likely a
，这是可能的，但可能性不大

1243
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,480
far more likely outcome is something

1244
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,599
like this where you make a 67 return and

1245
00:44:15,599 --> 00:44:16,960
you might say to yourself well this

1246
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:20,079
vertical spread here makes a 94 return

1247
00:44:20,079 --> 00:44:22,960
so this is how you can use this tool

1248
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,359
plug in your potential outcomes uh
插入你的潜在结果，

1249
00:44:25,359 --> 00:44:27,760
especially most importantly account for
尤其是最重要的是考虑到

1250
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,680
volatility crush account for the fact
波动率压低考虑

1251
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,000
that that stock is going to decrease in
到该股票的

1252
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,240
value in terms of the implied volatility
价值将在隐含波动率方面下降 ity

1253
00:44:34,240 --> 00:44:35,760
option and that's going to help you
选项，这将帮助您

1254
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,240
become a much better
成为更好

1255
00:44:38,240 --> 00:44:40,640
trader around earnings because you will
的收益交易者，因为您将对收益

1256
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:42,079
have a much better understanding as to
如何影响您的期权价值有更好的理解，

1257
00:44:42,079 --> 00:44:43,839
how the value of your option will be

1258
00:44:43,839 --> 00:44:46,400
affected by earnings so with that that
因此这

1259
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:48,160
covers what i wanted to share with you
涵盖了我今天想在这里与您分享的内容

1260
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:50,240
here today i hope that this was helpful
我希望这

1261
00:44:50,240 --> 00:44:52,160
in giving you a better understanding as
有助于让您更好地

1262
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,640
to trading earnings and how the process
了解交易收益以及我

1263
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:56,160
that i go through the checklist that i

1264
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:58,800
go through uh in in determining whether
如何通过清单的过程来确定

1265
00:44:58,800 --> 00:44:59,839
i think the stock is going to
我是否认为股票

1266
00:44:59,839 --> 00:45:02,160
potentially beat or miss on earnings and
可能会超过或低于收益，

1267
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,640
i want to thank our members for uh
我 想感谢我们的会员

1268
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,160
supporting us and allowing us to
支持我们并允许我们继续

1269
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:07,599
continue to put out this type of

1270
00:45:07,599 --> 00:45:10,560
research and education for everyone to
为每个人提供这种类型的研究和教育，以

1271
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,119
learn more about options and trading
了解有关期权和交易期权的更多信息，

1272
00:45:13,119 --> 00:45:14,640
options so if you want to sign up for a
因此如果您想注册

1273
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:16,640
free 30-day trial for everything that
30 天免费试用

1274
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:18,880
our members have access to you can do so
我们的会员可以

1275
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:19,880
at
在

1276
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:21,839
optionsplay.com you'll get access to our
optionsplay.com 上与您联系 您可以访问我们的

1277
00:45:21,839 --> 00:45:24,000
daily trading signals you'll get a free
每日交易信号 您将获得

1278
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:25,920
30-day trial to the full platform that i
我今天在这里向您展示的完整平台的 30 天免费试用

1279
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:27,440
showed you here today so that you can
您可以

1280
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,280
analyze these trades based on that
根据

1281
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,040
implied volatility crush and you're
隐含波动率压抑分析这些交易，并且您

1282
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:32,640
going to be able to join us every single
将能够在每个

1283
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:35,359
thursday for these options education
星期四参加这些期权教育

1284
00:45:35,359 --> 00:45:37,680
sessions so with that i'm going to open
课程，因此我将

1285
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,000
this up for q a here at the
在此处为 qa 开放

1286
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,480
there is both a chat window and a q a
聊天窗口和 aqa

1287
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,480
section if you want to type your
部分如果你想

1288
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:46,560
questions in the q a section i'll try to
在 qa 部分输入你的问题，我会尝试

1289
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:48,800
answer any questions you might have
回答你可能有的任何问题，

1290
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:52,560
before i jump here for today
然后我今天跳到这里

1291
00:45:55,119 --> 00:45:55,920
uh
呃

1292
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,839
jacques is saying a company has jumped
雅克说一家公司

1293
00:45:57,839 --> 00:46:00,000
10 since its earnings beat as of
自昨天的收益超过以来已经上涨了 10

1294
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:02,400
yesterday i'll be honest i haven't taken
老实说，我

1295
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:03,920
a look at that earnings announcement so
没有看过那份收益公告，所以

1296
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,560
i cannot really comment on that
我无法真正评论那个

1297
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:06,930
um
嗯

1298
00:46:06,930 --> 00:46:08,560
[Music]
[音乐]

1299
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:10,640
just did a debit spread on jpm lasted
只是在 jpm 上的借记利差持续

1300
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:12,640
two days before earnings worked out okay
了两天，然后收益才算出来，

1301
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:14,480
thank you for sharing that ken
谢谢您分享 ken

1302
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,079
um
um

1303
00:46:16,079 --> 00:46:17,839
netflix before trade was actually
netflix 在今天交易实际上

1304
00:46:17,839 --> 00:46:20,079
profitable today that's that's correct
有利可图之前，这是正确的，

1305
00:46:20,079 --> 00:46:21,920
um maybe some of you held on to that
也许你们中的一些人坚持那只

1306
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,400
butterfly but i did not expect
蝴蝶，但我没想到

1307
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,200
netflix to jump after you know what was
netflix 在你知道什么

1308
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:28,960
a strong earnings announcement the stock
是强劲的收益公告后会跳涨股票

1309
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,960
just did not react well to that earnings
只是对此反应不佳 收益

1310
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:32,160
announcement even though it's a strong
公告尽管这是一个强劲的

1311
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:33,520
earnings announcement the stock jumped
收益公告，但今天的股票大幅上涨

1312
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,680
substantially here today i hope some of
，我希望

1313
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,440
you were able to hold on to it and maybe
你们中的一些人能够坚持下去，并

1314
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,280
take a profit on that um you know we
从中

1315
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:40,960
were up about 50

1316
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:44,079
uh earlier today on that butterfly

1317
00:46:44,079 --> 00:46:45,280
uh ken is saying where do you find
获利 是说你在哪里可以

1318
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,280
charts for relative strength to sectors
找到行业相对强度的图表，

1319
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,560
so ken currently you know i can suggest
所以现在你知道我可以建议

1320
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,040
using stockcharts.com it's it is a free
使用 stockcharts.com 它是

1321
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:55,280
resource that anyone can have access to
任何人都可以访问的免费资源

1322
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:57,440
and you can put on relative charts on
，你可以在 stockcharts.com 上放置相关图表，

1323
00:46:57,440 --> 00:46:59,440
stockcharts.com

1324
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:01,359
so that is one resource that i can point
所以 我可以向您指出一个资源，

1325
00:47:01,359 --> 00:47:03,359
you to but we are working on integrating
但我们正在努力

1326
00:47:03,359 --> 00:47:07,599
relative charts on our platform as well
在我们的平台上整合相关图表，

1327
00:47:07,599 --> 00:47:08,960
will you do a class on how to read
您是否会开设一门关于如何阅读财务报表的课程，

1328
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:10,560
financial statements to know what is
以了解什么是

1329
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:12,960
important what is not so you know rich
重要的，什么是不重要的，以便您了解

1330
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:15,599
the richers i will say that
富人，我会说

1331
00:47:15,599 --> 00:47:17,760
you can really drive yourself nuts
你真的可以在

1332
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,160
trying to read financial statements um
试图阅读财务报表时让自己

1333
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,960
i'm not a huge fan of going too deep
发疯，嗯，我不喜欢深入

1334
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:24,720
into the financial statements as you can
了解财务报表，

1335
00:47:24,720 --> 00:47:26,880
see when you look at trailing 12-month
当你查看过去 12 个月的

1336
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,839
revenue and trailing 12-month eps what i
收入和 tr 时，你会看到 生病的 12 个月每股收益 我所

1337
00:47:29,839 --> 00:47:32,160
look at is what is the overall trend
看到的是

1338
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:33,920
over the last eight quarters and what is
过去八个季度的总体趋势是什么

1339
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:35,520
the trend over the last three quarters
，过去三个季度的趋势

1340
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,680
that's what these two uh the the blue
是什么 这就是这两个呃蓝

1341
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,400
line and the yellow line tell us it
线和黄线告诉我们它

1342
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:42,000
tells us what has happened over the last
告诉我们什么 过去

1343
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:44,000
eight quarters what is the general trend
八个季度发生了什么大趋势

1344
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,040
and has the recent trend been better or
，最近的趋势是好

1345
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:48,880
worse so as you can see on from a
是坏，所以从收入的角度来看，您可以看到

1346
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:50,480
revenue perspective

1347
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:52,880
the company basically has a decline on
公司基本上每个季度

1348
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,040
average of about one point three seven
平均下降约百分之三七，

1349
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,599
percent every single quarter uh every
呃每个

1350
00:47:57,599 --> 00:47:59,200
every single 12 months
每 12 个月，

1351
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:00,960
period when you roll that forward one
当你向前推进一个

1352
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,240
quarter jp morgan's um
季度时，摩根大通的

1353
00:48:04,240 --> 00:48:06,000
revenue has declined by an average of
收入在过去三个季度中平均

1354
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,880
about 1.37 percent per quarter over the
每季度下降约 1.37%

1355
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:11,359
past three quarters has declined by 1.6
下降了 1.6，

1356
00:48:11,359 --> 00:48:13,040
so from my perspective nothing has
所以从我的角度来看，最近从收入的角度来看，并没有

1357
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,040
really changed from a revenue
真正改变

1358
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:16,240
perspective

1359
00:48:16,240 --> 00:48:18,400
recent past versus what's averaged over
与

1360
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:20,319
the last eight quarters on the earnings
过去八个季度的平均收益相比，

1361
00:48:20,319 --> 00:48:22,319
side you've seen a small acceleration in
您看到收益略有加速

1362
00:48:22,319 --> 00:48:23,839
terms of earnings they've grown earnings
，他们的

1363
00:48:23,839 --> 00:48:25,599
on average about nine point two percent
收益平均增长了大约九个

1364
00:48:25,599 --> 00:48:27,440
per quarter uh in the last three
在过去的三个季度中，每季度 2% 呃

1365
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:28,880
quarters they've accelerated that to
他们已经加速到

1366
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,680
about 12.73 that's more meaningful but
大约 12.73，这更有意义，但

1367
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:33,440
like i said you know what's most really
就像我说的，你知道

1368
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,280
more important is the overall trend
最重要的是整体

1369
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,440
revenues trending in the wrong direction
趋势收入朝着错误的方向发展

1370
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:38,880
earnings is trending in the right
收益朝着正确的

1371
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:41,680
direction that can't go on for too long
方向发展 这不能持续太久，

1372
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:43,359
because you can't just make more and
因为你不能只用

1373
00:48:43,359 --> 00:48:45,760
more profits on less and less revenue
越来越少的收入赚取越来越多的利润

1374
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:47,520
you can get more efficient you can
你可以提高效率你可以

1375
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:49,359
decrease expenses those are those are
减少开支这些

1376
00:48:49,359 --> 00:48:50,720
legitimate things for a company to do
是公司做的合法的事情

1377
00:48:50,720 --> 00:48:52,720
and those are good things but you really
，这些都是好事 但是你真的

1378
00:48:52,720 --> 00:48:54,960
need to start to see this this revenue
需要开始看到这个收入

1379
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:57,760
start to pick up or at least plateau um
开始回升或者至少

1380
00:48:57,760 --> 00:48:59,040
and because those because there are
是稳定的，因为有

1381
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:00,559
plenty of companies that are increasing
很多公司正在增加

1382
00:49:00,559 --> 00:49:03,119
their revenues and earnings those are
他们的收入和收益，这些公司

1383
00:49:03,119 --> 00:49:04,160
ones that are going to be more
将更具

1384
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,240
attractive so those are the primary
吸引力，所以这些是

1385
00:49:06,240 --> 00:49:09,119
things that i look for
我要寻找的主要内容

1386
00:49:10,079 --> 00:49:11,760
yes we do have a recording of this
是的，我们确实有本次

1387
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:13,280
webinar and you'll be able to receive
网络研讨会的录音，我们今天在这里结束后，您将能够

1388
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:14,960
both the slides and the reporting after
收到幻灯片和报告，

1389
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:18,240
we finish here today

1390
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:23,839
um you know someone talked about snap
嗯，你知道 有人谈到过快速

1391
00:49:23,839 --> 00:49:25,440
earnings down you know one of the things
收益下降

1392
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:27,359
that you can look at for snap if i'm not
，如果我没记错的话，您可以查看快速收益之一，

1393
00:49:27,359 --> 00:49:29,920
mistaken when i looked at snap earlier
如果我之前看快速收益

1394
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:30,880
um

1395
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:33,599
it it was underperforming you know the
，它表现不佳您了解

1396
00:49:33,599 --> 00:49:35,200
market you know that's one of the things
市场，您知道这

1397
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,920
that we did see in snapchat uh you know
是我们所做的事情之一 看看 snapchat 呃你知道

1398
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,000
if we look at snap relative you know
如果我们看 snap 相对你知道

1399
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,000
it's it's making sideways and then
它正在横盘整理然后

1400
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:43,680
relative to the market it was a little
相对于市场它

1401
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:45,920
bit down this you know we haven't seen
有点下降这个你知道我们没有看到

1402
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,240
any real outperformance of snap relative
任何真正的 snap 相

1403
00:49:48,240 --> 00:49:51,440
to its uh to the market and relative to
对于它的市场表现 并且相对于

1404
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:52,640
the sector
该行业，

1405
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:55,040
so both snap as you can see flat
因此两者都会突然出现，因为您可以看到

1406
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,119
relative to the stock relative to a
相对于相对于某个行业的股票而言，

1407
00:49:57,119 --> 00:49:58,880
sector there's really not there wasn't a
实际上并没有

1408
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:00,880
lot of information going to snap to
很多信息会真正

1409
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:02,880
really

1410
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:06,079
make that judgment call
做出判断，呼叫

1411
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:10,800
revenue is what they make and earnings
收入就是他们的收入，而收益

1412
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,359
is what they profited from that so if
就是什么 他们从中获利，所以如果

1413
00:50:13,359 --> 00:50:15,280
you make a dollar and you're able to
你赚了 1 美元并且你能够从中

1414
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:18,319
make a 50 profit from that um you know
赚取 50 美元的利润，那么你知道

1415
00:50:18,319 --> 00:50:20,640
minus expenses so revenue is how much
减去费用，所以收入就是

1416
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:22,960
you brought in minus expenses is your
你带来的收入减去费用就是你的

1417
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:25,920
overall profit um and that is a very
整体利润，这是一个非常

1418
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:27,440
oversimplified
简单的说法

1419
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:29,520
uh way to think about the markets um to
呃考虑市场的方式呃

1420
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:31,920
be honest
说实话

1421
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:34,000
uh thoughts on costco costco has moved
呃对costco的想法costco已经

1422
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:35,680
substantially higher here i think it's
大幅走高了我认为是

1423
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:37,839
time to cut losses on costco
时候减少costco的损失

1424
00:50:37,839 --> 00:50:39,520
we will be sending out an alert on that
我们将很快发出警报

1425
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,359
very shortly

1426
00:50:41,359 --> 00:50:42,960
how about some stocks that historically
关于一些历史上以前上涨的股票如何

1427
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,520
run up before earnings so you do have to
收益，

1428
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,119
factor that in right when you look at
所以当您查看 amd 时，您确实必须将其考虑

1429
00:50:47,119 --> 00:50:49,440
amd it's made a very big run going into
在内，它的收益非常大

1430
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,119
earnings and you might factor that in
，您可能会考虑到这一点，

1431
00:50:51,119 --> 00:50:53,200
and say it's made such a big run i think
并说它的收益如此之大，我认为

1432
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:54,960
there's a limit as to how much higher it
它可以提高多少

1433
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:57,040
can go so that might be where you're
所以这可能是你

1434
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,200
more inclined to sell options rather
更倾向于卖出期权而

1435
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:01,119
than buy options going into earnings
不是买入期权的地方，

1436
00:51:01,119 --> 00:51:03,040
just because you know you're concerned
因为你知道你

1437
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,680
about how much higher the stock can go
担心股票可以上涨多少，

1438
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,280
rather than buying options where the
而不是购买

1439
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:09,520
stock needs to make a bigger move to
股票需要采取更大行动的期权

1440
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:11,920
break even so yes you do have to take
收支平衡所以是的，你必须考虑

1441
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,000
that into account

1442
00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:15,440
what do you think about low delta

1443
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:17,200
strangles prior to earnings so richard
到在收益之前你对低 delta 扼杀的看法如此理查德

1444
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,040
there's a lot of traders that will trade
有很多交易者会交易

1445
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,280
low delta strangles there's a high
低 delta 扼杀有很高

1446
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:23,119
amount of risk in that
的风险我

1447
00:51:23,119 --> 00:51:24,960
but it is a trade where you have
但这是一项交易，在这种交易中，您

1448
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:28,000
effectively quadruple
实际上有四重

1449
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:29,760
factors working in your favor because
因素对您有利，因为

1450
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:32,079
you have the volatility crush and the

1451
00:51:32,079 --> 00:51:34,880
time decay on both sides and as long as
双方都受到波动性挤压和时间衰减，

1452
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:36,559
the stock makes a big it doesn't make a
只要股票大涨，您就不会发生

1453
00:51:36,559 --> 00:51:38,720
big move you'll be profitable
大的变动 盈利，

1454
00:51:38,720 --> 00:51:41,119
um it's just a risky strategy but you do
嗯，这只是一个冒险的策略，但你确实

1455
00:51:41,119 --> 00:51:42,400
have a lot of things working in your
有很多事情对你

1456
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:44,400
favor

1457
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:46,800
uh dividend announcements affect option

1458
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,280
strategies um generally speaking they

1459
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:51,280
don't unless they pay a really fat

1460
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:54,000
dividend from a dollar perspective less

1461
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:56,160
so from a percentage perspective because
有利 因为

1462
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:58,400
you do have a lot higher risk of early
你确实有更高的风险

1463
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:01,680
assignment on certain strategies
在某些策略上提前分配，

1464
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:03,839
but generally speaking dividends are not
但一般来说

1465
00:52:03,839 --> 00:52:04,720
as

1466
00:52:04,720 --> 00:52:06,160
um

1467
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:06,960
as

1468
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:10,079
as important for for traders as options
，对于交易者来说，股息并不像期权那么重要，

1469
00:52:10,079 --> 00:52:11,680
as earnings are
因为收益是

1470
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:13,440
julie's asking what do you consider low
朱莉问你认为低

1471
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:15,680
implied volatility um you know implied
隐含波动率是什么，你知道隐含

1472
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:19,520
volatility is a relative term
波动率是一个相对的 术语，

1473
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:21,760
so 30 might be relatively high for a
所以 30 对于像 walmart 或 um uh 这样的股票来说可能相对较高，

1474
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:24,319
stock like walmart or

1475
00:52:24,319 --> 00:52:27,040
um uh you know i don't know ge uh but
你知道我不知道 ge uh

1476
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:28,240
then when you look at stocks like
但是当你看像

1477
00:52:28,240 --> 00:52:30,319
snapchat or twitter or
snapchat 或 twitter 或

1478
00:52:30,319 --> 00:52:32,480
i don't know um
我这样的股票时 不知道嗯，

1479
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:35,280
even a tesla you know 30 is on the low
即使是特斯拉，你知道 30 处于

1480
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:36,720
end so
低端，所以

1481
00:52:36,720 --> 00:52:39,040
um

1482
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:40,800
you want to look at how the implied
你想看看隐含

1483
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,520
volatility option is relative to itself
波动率期权是如何相对于自身的，

1484
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:45,280
you don't want to compare the implied
你不想将

1485
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,440
volatility of one option to the implied
一个期权的隐含波动率与隐含

1486
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:49,200
volatility of another stock those are
波动率进行比较 另一只股票，那些评级

1487
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:51,119
not rate great comparisons you only want
不是很好的比较 你

1488
00:52:51,119 --> 00:52:52,800
to compare an implied volatility of an
只想比较一个期权的隐含波动率

1489
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:57,040
option relative to its own history
相对于它自己的历史

1490
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:00,480
as implied volatility an estimate no it
作为隐含波动率 一个估计 不是这

1491
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,640
is an exact calculation it's an exact
是一个精确的计算 这是一个

1492
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,200
calculation based on the based on the
基于

1493
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:06,160
the

1494
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:09,200
price of the option
期权价格的精确计算

1495
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:12,079
uh the market price is each option right
呃，市场价格是每个期权的正确

1496
00:53:12,079 --> 00:53:13,680
just the same way that the market prices
方式，就像市场

1497
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,240
the stock all the buyers and sellers you
对股票定价

1498
00:53:16,240 --> 00:53:18,319
know once you account for all the orders

1499
00:53:18,319 --> 00:53:19,280
in there

1500
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:22,079
the last recorded price is what the

1501
00:53:22,079 --> 00:53:24,559
value of the option is right so

1502
00:53:24,559 --> 00:53:26,559
an option has a price and that price is
的方式一样 有一个价格，这个价格是

1503
00:53:26,559 --> 00:53:28,559
arrived at by all the buyers and the
由所有

1504
00:53:28,559 --> 00:53:31,119
sellers coming into the marketplace and
进入市场的买家和卖家

1505
00:53:31,119 --> 00:53:33,040
finding that natural equilibrium if you
得出的，如果你愿意的话，就会找到自然均衡，

1506
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,280
will so the implied volatility is just
所以隐含波动率只是

1507
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,800
calculated off of that price
根据这个计算出来的 定价

1508
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:40,559
how many trades do you think we should
你认为我们

1509
00:53:40,559 --> 00:53:43,119
play into earning session so i mean that
应该在盈利时段进行多少交易 所以我的意思是这

1510
00:53:43,119 --> 00:53:44,640
really depends on how much risk you're
真的取决于你

1511
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:46,400
going to take you know i generally think
要承担多少风险 你知道我通常

1512
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:48,960
that you know maybe two to three a day
认为你每天可能知道两到三

1513
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:50,720
um you know especially if you're closing
笔你知道，尤其是如果你知道

1514
00:53:50,720 --> 00:53:53,200
out each trade after earnings after each
在每次盈利后重新平仓每笔交易

1515
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:55,200
earnings you can trade two three four
你可以

1516
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:57,839
five trades two three trades a day i
交易两三四五笔交易每天两三笔我

1517
00:53:57,839 --> 00:53:59,680
think it's probably reasonable for most
认为对于大多数

1518
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:01,520
traders

1519
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:03,119
thinking of earnings next week would you
考虑下周盈利的交易

1520
00:54:03,119 --> 00:54:05,280
caller amd with an expiration just past
者来说

1521
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:06,960
the earnings announcement or with the 30
这可能是合理的 30

1522
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:08,800
day expiration generally speaking i like
天到期一般来说，我喜欢

1523
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:10,880
to go out about 30 days
在到期后 30 天左右出去，

1524
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:13,040
past expiration you should never use the
你永远不应该

1525
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:14,720
expiration just past the earnings
在收益公告后使用到期

1526
00:54:14,720 --> 00:54:16,079
announcement that's a great question
，这是一个很好的问题，

1527
00:54:16,079 --> 00:54:17,599
david
大卫

1528
00:54:17,599 --> 00:54:19,520
where do you get your relative rotation
你从哪里得到你的相对轮换

1529
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:22,240
charts from i use stockcharts.com for it
图表我使用的是 stockcharts.com 因为它

1530
00:54:22,240 --> 00:54:23,920
there aren't many places to get them
有 除了彭博淀粉鲨 stockcharts.com 和其他一些地方，没有多少地方可以买到它们，

1531
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:26,040
other than bloomberg starch sharks

1532
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:28,000
stockcharts.com and a few other places

1533
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:29,480
but start just
但只从 stockcharts.com 开始，

1534
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:31,440
stockcharts.com sorry
抱歉，这

1535
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:34,480
is where most i would say retail traders
是我最想说的地方 尾部交易者

1536
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,640
get access to rrg which is a relative
可以访问 rrg，这是一个相对

1537
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,440
rotation chart
轮换

1538
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:41,839
is it better to pick take profit partial
图表，在收益公布日期之前选择止盈部分

1539
00:54:41,839 --> 00:54:43,520
profits and close the trade before the
利润并关闭交易会更好

1540
00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:46,480
earnings announcement date um donald you

1541
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:48,079
know i don't think that there's a
吗？

1542
00:54:48,079 --> 00:54:49,760
general best practice for that the

1543
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:51,440
question is really whether or not you
真的，无论您是否

1544
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:53,599
want to get exposure to the earnings
想接触收益

1545
00:54:53,599 --> 00:54:55,040
announcement that's going to determine
公告，这将

1546
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,200
whether you don't keep it open or close
决定您在收益之前是不打开还是关闭

1547
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:58,960
it before earnings
它，

1548
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:00,480
how do you feel about using short
您对使用短扼杀的感觉如何，

1549
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:02,960
strangles um so you know i talked about
所以您知道我之前讨论过

1550
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:05,040
that a bit earlier before
这个问题

1551
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:06,720
where can i find graphs shown on revenue
我在哪里可以找到关于收入

1552
00:55:06,720 --> 00:55:08,720
and earnings trend analysis so sandra
和收益趋势分析

1553
00:55:08,720 --> 00:55:10,880
these are charts that we built ourselves
的图表，所以 Sandra 这些是我们自己制作的图表

1554
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,119
and we are currently in the process of
，我们目前

1555
00:55:13,119 --> 00:55:14,799
working on and integrating into the
正在研究并整合到

1556
00:55:14,799 --> 00:55:17,440
options play platform but these are
期权游戏平台中，但

1557
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:18,799
these are you know these are not
这些是你知道的，这些不是

1558
00:55:18,799 --> 00:55:20,880
proprietary these are publicly available
专有的 是公开的

1559
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:22,720
numbers almost every brokerage firm
数字，几乎每个经纪公司都会

1560
00:55:22,720 --> 00:55:25,440
provides some type of chart if you will
提供某种类型的图表，如果您

1561
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,319
to show you historical um revenue and
愿意向您展示历史收入和

1562
00:55:28,319 --> 00:55:30,640
earnings trends so that you should be
收益趋势，以便您 你应该

1563
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:32,319
able to you know at the very least
能够至少

1564
00:55:32,319 --> 00:55:34,640
eyeball you know the the overall trends
知道你对整体趋势的了解，

1565
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:35,760
right so
所以

1566
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:37,440
instead of them showing to you in like

1567
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:39,280
this if you just had a you know some bar
如果你只是有一个你知道一些

1568
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:40,960
graphs right you should be able to
条形图的人，而不是像这样向你展示，你应该能够

1569
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:43,040
eyeball hey this is a company that isn't
注意到这是一个 如果我从趋势上看，实际上并没有

1570
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:44,720
really growing their revenues actually
真正增加收入的公司

1571
00:55:44,720 --> 00:55:46,799
if i look at on trend is actually
实际上正在

1572
00:55:46,799 --> 00:55:49,280
decreasing revenues so
减少收入，所以

1573
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:51,200
you know this is something that
你知道这是

1574
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:52,640
every single
每个

1575
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:54,960
brokerage firm has access to historical
经纪公司都可以访问历史

1576
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:56,480
financial statements
财务报表

1577
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:58,319
and most of them will plot it for you on
的东西，他们中的大多数会在图表上为你绘制它

1578
00:55:58,319 --> 00:56:00,400
a chart i find plotting it on the chart
找到将它绘制在图表上

1579
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,280
just visually i can quickly gauge hey is
只是视觉上我可以快速判断嘿，

1580
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:04,720
this trending in the right direction or
这种趋势是否朝着正确的方向发展

1581
00:56:04,720 --> 00:56:06,960
not

1582
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:14,079
are you still going to take this
，你是否仍然要参加

1583
00:56:14,079 --> 00:56:15,920
thursday's meetings i'm not sure what
周四的会议，我不确定

1584
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:17,420
you mean by that um
你说的那个嗯

1585
00:56:17,420 --> 00:56:20,610
[Music]
[音乐]

1586
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,280
dan is only taking over the options
丹只是接管是什么意思 周四的选项

1587
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:26,720
education thursday sessions um as
教育课程 嗯，

1588
00:56:26,720 --> 00:56:28,799
for those of you that may not uh know
对于你们中那些可能还不知道的人

1589
00:56:28,799 --> 00:56:30,559
yet my wife and i are expecting our
，我和我的妻子

1590
00:56:30,559 --> 00:56:32,559
first child here in the next couple of
在接下来的几周左右期待我们的第一个孩子在这里，

1591
00:56:32,559 --> 00:56:35,280
weeks or so um so at this point you know
所以在这一点上你知道

1592
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:36,799
we want to make sure that you guys have
我们想要确保 你们

1593
00:56:36,799 --> 00:56:40,480
continuity in terms of education so
在教育方面有连续性，所以

1594
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:42,720
once my wife gives birth um dan
一旦我的妻子生了 um dan

1595
00:56:42,720 --> 00:56:44,880
pasarelli who we just i did a session
pasarelli，我们就

1596
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:47,359
with on tuesday afternoon for some of
在星期二下午和

1597
00:56:47,359 --> 00:56:49,920
you that attended he will be taking over
他一起为你们中的一些人做了一个会议，他将接管

1598
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:52,319
uh about three about four to five
呃大约三到四到五个

1599
00:56:52,319 --> 00:56:55,040
education sessions while i take a few
教育课程，而我 休息

1600
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,359
weeks off um
几周，

1601
00:56:57,359 --> 00:56:59,839
but during that time uh dan will be
但在那段时间里，呃丹将

1602
00:56:59,839 --> 00:57:01,680
taking over and we will also have
接任，我们还将让

1603
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:04,079
prakash stepping in on the tuesday
普拉卡什参加周二的

1604
00:57:04,079 --> 00:57:06,000
market outlook sessions so we've got you
市场展望会议，所以我们已经为您

1605
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:07,839
covered across all of the sessions that
介绍了

1606
00:57:07,839 --> 00:57:10,480
we host um you will not expect you will
我们主持的所有会议，您不会期望 你不会

1607
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,040
not see any disruptions to any of the

1608
00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:15,680
sessions that we host on tuesday on
看到我们在周二和周四举办的任何课程受到任何干扰

1609
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:17,920
thursday and even the friday rapid fire
，甚至是周五的快速射击

1610
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:20,400
sessions
课程

1611
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:22,799
any future class on
任何关于

1612
00:57:22,799 --> 00:57:24,480
pre-earning strategies often those
预盈利策略的未来课程通常这些

1613
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:26,160
stocks get overhyped and reverse this
股票会被过度炒作并逆转这个

1614
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:27,200
direction
方向，

1615
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:30,000
um you know i i i don't have a
你知道 iii 没有

1616
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:31,680
particular uh

1617
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:34,000
class on that i'll be honest
说实话，我

1618
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:35,839
i i don't really think of those things
真的不认为这些事情

1619
00:57:35,839 --> 00:57:39,440
as necessarily that important um
有那么重要，嗯，

1620
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:41,040
you know and there's no way in my
你知道，我

1621
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:43,040
opinion that you'll ever be able to
认为你永远无法

1622
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:44,400
gauge

1623
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:46,240
how the market is going to react that's
衡量 ket 会做出反应 这

1624
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:47,920
the one thing that you can't gauge you
是你无法衡量的一件事 你可以

1625
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:49,599
can gauge

1626
00:57:49,599 --> 00:57:51,520
largely you know
在很大程度上衡量 你

1627
00:57:51,520 --> 00:57:53,200
to some degree whether you think the
在某种程度上知道你认为

1628
00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:54,880
stock's going to beat or miss what's
股票会上涨还是错过

1629
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:56,799
almost impossible to gauge is how the
几乎无法衡量的是

1630
00:57:56,799 --> 00:57:59,119
market is going to react to that
市场将如何反应

1631
00:57:59,119 --> 00:58:00,640
i don't think that's really a template
我 不要认为这真的是一个

1632
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:04,200
for that in my opinion
模板，在我看来

1633
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:10,720
do you get the profit and revenue data
，你是否

1634
00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:12,480
from the q10 reports or from the
从 Q10 报告或

1635
00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:14,960
company's website so you can but i think
公司网站获得利润和收入数据，所以你可以，但我认为

1636
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:17,200
that's a lot of work most brokerage firm
这是很多工作，大多数经纪公司

1637
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:19,359
aggregate most brokerage firms aggregate
汇总大多数经纪公司汇总

1638
00:58:19,359 --> 00:58:21,599
all of this stuff for you so you
所有 为您准备了这些东西，因此

1639
00:58:21,599 --> 00:58:23,839
shouldn't have to go to the sec website
您不必去 sec 网站

1640
00:58:23,839 --> 00:58:25,280
or the company's website to get this
或公司网站来获取此类

1641
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:27,760
type of stuff um you know your broker

1642
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:29,359
term aggregates all of it so you can

1643
00:58:29,359 --> 00:58:31,200
just type in the symbol into your you

1644
00:58:31,200 --> 00:58:33,520
know think or swim or whatever platform
东西 或游泳或

1645
00:58:33,520 --> 00:58:35,440
you use and they should be able to show
您使用的任何平台，他们应该能够向

1646
00:58:35,440 --> 00:58:37,599
you the financial statements or a chart
您展示财务报表或

1647
00:58:37,599 --> 00:58:39,520
of the historical
历史

1648
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:41,280
primary you know
主要图表您知道

1649
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:42,640
some of the most important things which
一些最重要的事情，

1650
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:46,240
are revenue and eps earnings per share
即收入和每股收益

1651
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:48,640
with that that covers the questions that
与该 cov

1652
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:50,880
i have time for here today i really
我今天有时间回答这些问题我真的很感谢你

1653
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:52,640
appreciate you taking your time out here

1654
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:54,960
this afternoon uh to
今天下午抽出时间来

1655
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:57,280
listen to you know how to think about
听听你知道如何考虑

1656
00:58:57,280 --> 00:58:58,880
earnings season and hopefully giving you
收益季节并希望让

1657
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:00,880
a better understanding as to what you
你更好地了解你

1658
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:02,799
want to look for in your research when
想要在你的 当

1659
00:59:02,799 --> 00:59:04,799
you're thinking about how do i think
您考虑我如何

1660
00:59:04,799 --> 00:59:06,160
about stocks that are going to beat or
看待收益将超过或错过的股票时进行研究

1661
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:07,839
miss on earnings and thank you so much
，非常感谢你们

1662
00:59:07,839 --> 00:59:08,640
for those of you that said
中的那些人说

1663
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:10,960
congratulations i really appreciate it
祝贺我真的很感激

1664
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:13,200
um and i really look forward to
，我真的很期待

1665
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:15,359
having dan on when when the baby comes
什么时候有丹 宝宝来了，

1666
00:59:15,359 --> 00:59:17,520
but until then i will be here um and i
但在那之前我会在这里，嗯，我

1667
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:19,520
expect to be here probably at least for
希望至少

1668
00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:22,000
the next couple of weeks or so but with
在接下来的几周左右会在这里，

1669
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:23,760
that thank you so much i hope you guys
但非常感谢你们，我希望你们

1670
00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:25,839
have a great trading day um we don't
有一个美好的交易日，我们

1671
00:59:25,839 --> 00:59:27,440
have a rapid fire session tomorrow
没有 明天早上的快速会议，

1672
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:29,119
morning but i will be sending everyone
但我将向每个人发送

1673
00:59:29,119 --> 00:59:31,280
the chart book so that you will see my
图表簿，以便您看到我

1674
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:33,440
macro view on the broader markets the
对更广泛市场的宏观看法，

1675
00:59:33,440 --> 00:59:35,359
sector rotations and the individual
行业轮换以及

1676
00:59:35,359 --> 00:59:37,599
names that we are paying attention to in
我们在

1677
00:59:37,599 --> 00:59:39,920
this market with that thank you so much
这个市场上关注的个人名称 非常感谢你们

1678
00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:41,680
have a great trading day and i'll see
有一个美好的交易日，我

1679
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:44,000
you guys here next week on the tuesday
下周在周二的

1680
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:48,920
market outlook session have a good night
市场展望会议上见你们祝你晚安