好 早上好 然后欢迎来到美特惠私人访问培训室 Okay, good morning. Then welcome to the metervenee private access training room.
我是鲍勃Whitesman 如果我们能快速地举起你们的手来让我知道你们听到了我响亮而清晰的声音 I'm Bob Whitesman. If we can do a quick raising of your hands to let me know that you hear me loud and clear.
希望每个人都有一个美好的周末和安全 Hope everybody had a good weekend and safe.
我还想欢迎 I also want to welcome
马克·里奇走进房间 早上好 Mark Richie into the room. Good morning.
马克 早 鲍勃 早 各位 请举手让我们知道你的听力 Mark. Morning. Bob. Morning. Everybody, if you could also just raise your hand to let us know your hearing.
马克 好的 看起来不错 同时 我们将从今天的Mark介入开始 Mark OK, that looks great. And also, we will get things started by handed off the Mark INTERVENI to get started with today.
马克早上好 大家早上好 Mark Good morning. Good morning everyone.
早上好 马克 鲍勃 很快 我想做一些评论 然后我们就进入提问环节 Good morning, mark, bob. Real quick, just want to make a few comments, and then we'll get to questions.
我想你们知道 这是很多交易者犯的错误之一 I think you know, one of the mistakes that a lot of traders make and mark it.
我也想听听您的看法 因为您非常有耐心 非常有条理地 循序渐进地进出市场 Like you to comment on this too, because you're really good at being very patient and moving very methodically and incrementally in and out of the market.
我想你知道 你们中的一些人可能已经陷入了这样的境地 也许你的你动作太快了 太快变得咄咄逼人 Um, I think you know, some of you may have gotten yourself into a situation now, um, where maybe your you moved a little too quick and you got aggressive too soon.
也许是因为社交恐惧症 随着市场指数开始脱离低点 随着它们越走越高 你听到头条新闻等等 你开始觉得你需要做点什么 Uh, maybe because of fomo. As the as the market indexes started moving off the lows, and as the more they go up and and you hear the headlines and so forth, you start feeling like you need to do something.
很多股票也开始成立 And also a lot of stocks start setting up.
但你必须记住的主要事情是你必须确保交易是有效的 But the main thing you have to remember is that you have to make sure that the trades are working.
就像我之前说的 制造低点是一回事 制造底部是另一回事 真正的触底 经历一个建立可靠底部的过程 And like I said before, there's one thing of making a low there's another, uh uh, of making a bottom, of actually bottoming out, going through the process of putting in a reliable bottom.
然后第三最重要 我什么我寻找的是当股市正在认真 你进入 容易一美元的环境中 你可以得到低 放在底部 仍然不是美元在一个简单的环境 和市场指数再创新高 但你仍然没有的股票真的是工作从基地和痘痘 And then the 3rd and the most important, and what what I what I look for is when stocks are moving in earnest, and you get into that easy a dollar environment, you can get make a low and put in the bottom and still not being be in an easy dollar environment, and that the market indexes could be hitting new highs, but you still haven't gotten to the point where the stocks are really working from bases and from breakouts.
你知道 现在 当然 可能有人有价值策略的风格或策略 或者是在低点买入 在超卖的情况下买入 这可能在特定的时间对他们很有用 You know, now, of course, maybe someone who has the style or the strategy of a value strategy, or is buying off the lows, buying oversold conditions, that might be working great for them at that particular time.
但是 就像我说过很多次的那样 如果你没有耐心等待你的策略流行起来 然后给其他策略机会 那么你就没有策略 你就上瘾了 But again, as I've said many times, if you don't have the patience to wait for your strategy to come into vogue and give the other strategies of their turn, you don't have a strategy, you have an addiction.
这就是关键所在 And And so that's the key here.
我担心 你们中的一些人可能已经陷入这种境地了 还有两点 And I-I fear that, you know, some of you may have gotten into this situation now, two more points.
UM在这种环境下 我们喜欢用高α的名字 UM In this type of environment, we like to go with the high alpha names.
嗯 在任何环境下 我们都喜欢用高α的名字 UM. And we like to go with the high alpha names in any environment.
特别是当你进入一个困难的市场 或者你的或者你的价格开始下跌 But in particular, when you get into a difficult market, or your or you're starting to come off of belows.
我们选择高阿尔法的股票的原因是 在这两种情况下 第一 当你在一个困难的市场中 你想要的股票不是 是 那些有自己的鼓手 The reason why we would go the high alpha names and those two circumstances is one, when you're in a difficult market, you want stocks that are not, that are, that are marching to their own drummer.
他们并没有受到市场波动的太多影响 They're not, uh, being affected too much by the volatility of the market.
第二件事是 当你走出低点 你开始一个新的上升 也许从一个文件到一天 你想要高阿尔法的名字和强大的交易所 因为这些通常是在低迷时期最好的 The 2nd thing is is that when you're coming off the lows and you're starting to a new uptren um, maybe from a file through day, you want the high alphan names and strong exchange, because those are generally the ones that held up the best during the downturn.
他们建立了阿尔法 他们建立起了R-S 他们可能是下一个领导者 They built up that alpha. They built up that R-S, and those are potentially the next leaders.
如果你保持相对保守 你买了一堆股票 但你的敞口只有 假设25%之前 你看到情况好转 你就会变得激进 So blastly, if you had, you know, just stayed relatively conservative, and let you say, you know, you bought a bunch of stock, but your exposure was only, let's say, 25% before, you know, you saw things were working, and you got aggressive.
所以即使你在所有这些名字上都有8%的停牌率 假设你买了10个或5个名字 你得到了25%的收益 你在8%的停牌率上每个名字都被敲了一下 So even if you took a full 8% stop across the board on all those names, let's just say you bought ten names or five names, and it got you 25% in bessit, and you got knocked at every single name at an 8% stop.
这是你投资组合的2% That's 2% stop on your portfolio.
这是一个非常小的 它是可以回收的 It's a very small it's, it's recoverable.
这是8%的句号 你应该平均不超过5% 或者最多6个百分点 And that's with a full stop of 8 %, which you should be averaging to no more than 5 %, or maybe six at the most.
所以 他们说的可能是1 5% So again, they are talking about maybe a one and a half percent.
你现在在这个范围内 只占总股本的1 5% You're you're in that range now of one one and a half percent of total equity.
这就是你知道的 如果成功了 你就能拿到25%的投资 你就赚得很好 对吧 So that's where you know. Now, if that were to work, you get at that 25% invested, and you're doing well, okay?
你可以把它提高到50% 你可以承担更多的风险 你可以开始你可以开始增加风险 You can step it up to 50 %, you can take some more risk, and you can start a you can start adding on risk.
很快的 马克 我很好奇你最近怎么样 So real quick, mark, I'm just curious how you've been doing.
我 我很确定我还没有和马克谈过这个 但我很确定他一直很保守 可能从来没有 I'm, I'm fairly certain I haven't even talked to Mark about this, but I'm fairly certain that he's been conservative, and probably haven't.
你还没有提高 你的曝光率太高了 好像还没有 对吧 You haven't ratched it up. Your exposure too high, as if, yet, right?
没有 你知道 我认为你的观点是 你知道 如果你是新手 这只是一种诱惑 No. And, you know, I think the point you make about, um, you know, if you're new at this, there's just a temptation.
有时候我觉得我得做点什么 Sometimes I feel like I gotta do something.
我要做的 你知道的 我花了所有的时间在屏幕前 在放映上 但我做的不多 I gotta do, you know, I'm spending all this time in front of the screen and doing on the screening, but I'm not doing much.
而且 你知道 有时候真的没什么可做的 And, you know, sometimes there's just not much to do.
我认为你用了这个词 我认为这是赌博的术语 标志着节省赌注的想法 或者你做的这些增量的决定实际上会为你节省大量的钱 因为你会被束缚 你知道 在失败者或糟糕的情况下 And I think you use that term, I think it's gambling term, marked the idea of saving bets, or these incremental decisions you make that actually wind up saving you a ton of money, because you'd otherwise be tied up, you know, in losers or in bad situations.
所以他们不喜欢 今天早上我刚和我的贸易伙伴谈过 我们说 看 这仍然是一个芯片的环境 So they don't. I was just talking to to my trading partner this morning, we were saying, look, it's still a chip up environment.
比如 获得一点点收益 Like, take little gains,
看看你能不能避免 see if you can just avoid getting, you know,
圆章 如果可以 你可以继续 甚至保持水平或逐渐提高 chapter round. And if you can, you continued, even stay flat or incrementally higher.
现在 当然 我可以在两天内改变我的观点 变得非常激进 For now. And I could change my view, of course, in in two days on that and get very aggressive.
但现在 根据我们所看到的一切 这看起来仍然只是我们所处的环境 But for now, it still looks like, based on everything we're seeing, that's just the kind of environment we're in.
现在还没必要停下来加油 对吧 There's no need to be stopping on the gas yet, right?
不管指数做得有多好 不管有多少只股票 你必须习惯参与市场通过你从突破中得到的反馈 从紫罗兰名单中 从你自己的交易中 基于这些反馈 这真的是这是这是引擎 Regardless of how good the indexes are doing, regardless of how many stocks are setting up, you've got to get used to engaging the market by the feedback that you're getting from the breakouts, from the Violet List, from your own trading, and based on that feedback, that's really that's that's the engine.
你是kaboos 这才是真正的引擎 You're the kaboos. That's the real engine.
市场指数不是引擎 The market indexes is not the engine.
有些人误解了这一点 他们认为 好吧 市场表现不错 我应该投资 Some people, they misread this. They think, okay, the market's doing well, then then then I should be invested.
不 不 你的你的宇宙 你的股票宇宙 你的风格 这是你必须参与的 No, no what your your universe, your universe of stocks, your style, that's what you have to engage.
当它表现良好时 你就应该变得积极 When that's doing well, then you should be getting aggressive.
在这个时候 市场指数可能根本没有什么变化 And that could be a time when the market indexes are doing not much at all.
当市场指数基本持平时 我获得了一些最大的回报 I've made some of my biggest returns when the market indexes were basically flat and they didn't do much.
我曾袖手旁观 我记得有好几次 当市场 由 不好意思 由 道琼斯指数 标准普尔指数 美国国家证券交易委员会指数 创出新高时 我为什么几个月又几个月地袖手旁观 And I've sat out, uh, there's been times that I can remember why I sat out for months and months and months while the the market, as measured by, the, uh, excuse me, as measured by the, um, the DOW, or the S&P, or the NASAC, was hitting new highs.
好了 我们开始提问吧 So anyway, let's get to some questions.
但这是 这是我的想法 我对你们当中一些人的情况的猜测 But that's, that's my, uh, my thought here, and my uh speculation of what's going on with some of you.
当然 如果你是新手 那些经验丰富的人会明白这一点 但我也认识很多新手 Certainly, if you're new at this, those of you that are seasoned understand this, but there's a lot of new newbies I understand.
这可能就是你现在可能遇到的情况 通过观察市场交易的方式 And and that might be the situation that you may have gotten yourself in at this point, just by looking at the way the markets trading here.
让我们进入提问环节 确定 Let's get to some questions. Sure.
因此 詹姆斯提出了这样一个问题 突破点前后的波动率是否与修正后的涨幅水平有关 So James is asking, does volatility around breakouts correlate with the increase level the fix?
当然可以 但我绝不会 你知道 在交易策略中把这两者联系在一起 It certainly could. But I would never, you know, try to tie those two together in the trading strategy.
我想做 完全的弗兰克 I would just to be, uh, uh, perfectly Frank.
我只是 你知道的 不看维克斯 I would just, you know, not look at the Vex.
我的意思是 如果你想 你真正应该关注vex的唯一时间是vex上升到30以上 从历史上看 这个数字已经足够波动 是一个警告 你可能进入一个调整的市场 I mean, if you want, the only time you really should be look concerned with the vex is the Vex rises above 30, then that's a number that, historically, has been enough volatility to be a warning that you could be entering into a correction of their market.
现在 棘手的部分是 当你遭遇短期回调时 很多时候你会在30点以上触底 Now, the tricky part about it is that when you get shorter term pullbacks, a lot of times you'll bottom just above 30.
有些是还有数字 没有数字 Some are And the number, there's not like a number.
可以是30 4050 所以没有层次 It could be 30, 4050. So there is really no level.
但我们发现 当你超过30的水平时 波动性就足够了 But the the one, a level that we found, is that when you get above and you get to that 30 level, that's enough volatility.
现在 我们再次讨论索引 Now, again, we're talking about the indexes.
我说的是用它来衡量标准普尔500指数 而不是个股 I'm talking about measuring it to determine the S-P 500, not individual stocks.
看 是这样的 要想判断什么时候应该投资股票 最好的办法就是远离指标 The look, here's the thing. The best thing get away from indicators for to try to judge when you should be in stocks.
忘掉那些指标 指数 经济 所有这些东西 因为在晚上你会看到尾部 Forget about the indicators, the indexes, the economics, all that stuff, because at night you're looking at the tail.
你要看看头部 You want to look at the head.
你知道头在哪里 而不是尾巴在哪里 You know where the head goes, not the tail.
关键是股票 你的交易股票 如果他们的股票设置 So, and the key is the stocks, your trading stocks, if their stock setups.
查看股票设置 所以股票行情很好 Look for stock setups. So the stocks are setting up great.
现在你开始尝试一些 Now you start trying a few.
如果他们在工作 你可以变得好斗 If they're working, you can get aggressive.
只要股票设置是建设性的诱饵 从建设性的基础和上升趋势 低风险的进入点 你进入市场 As long as the stock setups are are presenting themselves with constructive bait coming out of constructive bases and up trends with low risk entry points you enter into the market.
你知道 如果你把一切都关了 你就只剩下这些了 Um, you know, if you just, if you shut everything off, uh, that's what you would be left with.
想象一下 我总是这么说 想象一下我们没有索引 Just imagine, let I always say this, just imagine that we had no indexes.
想象一下 没有人创建索引 Just imagine no one created an index.
天啊 我们要怎么交易 My God, how would we ever trade?
猜一猜 我们通过股票交易 Guess by this. We trade by the stocks.
你知道吗 这很简单 我们只是交易股票 You know? That's that's simple. We would just trade the stocks.
它不一定是一个索引 It doesn't have to be an index.
它的指数是一个篮子 你不需要看一篮子股票 It index is a basket. You don't have to look at a basket of stocks.
一篮子30或500只股票当然不能代表整个市场 That doesn't In a basket of 30 or 500 stock certainly doesn't represent the entire market.
记得吗 我在市场上变得不正常的全部原因是我的手机信号真的是那天 Remember, the whole reason why I was getting barish on the market and had that cell signal that was literally to the day.
是因为我们看到股市在表面之下跌破200日移动平均线 当道指和指数创下新高时 每个人都说 这太棒了 Was because we saw stocks beneath the surface breaking down and getting below their 200 day moving average, when the Dow and the and the indexes were hitting new highs, everybody's saying, oh, how great it is.
与此同时 空市已经提前几个月开始了还有一大堆股票 有60%到70%的股票低于200日移动平均线同样的分析 Meanwhile, where had a bare market that had already started from months in advance and a whole bunch of names, there was 60, 70% of stocks were below their 200 day moving average that same analysis.
现在你可以看到 现在只有2320 4%的股票在纳斯达克200日移动平均线以上 Now you can look, and you can see that right now, there's only about 2320, 4% of stocks above the 200 day moving average on the Nasdaq.
所以 这不是一个真正健康的市场 现在有很多人参与 So again, it's not a really healthy market with a lot of participation right now.
埃里克问了很多关于L-P-I和C-P-E的股票 Um, eric is asking about stocks like L-P-I and C-P-E, very
类似的研究 即使它们比去年下跌了50%以上 你还会考虑吗 similar looking. Would you consider them, even though they drop more than 50% from last year?
或者他们恢复得足够好了 你会考虑他们吗 Or have they recovered enough that you would consider them?
好的 这里有你所说的修正 大约63% Well, okay, so you have that correction over here that you're talking about, about, 63 %.
如果你要去炒股的话 Um, if you're gonna go get involved in stocks.
有这样的衰落 To have that kind of decline,
你需要一些东西 第一 你想要一个大的底部 当我说大的底部 通常是一年或更长时间 你想要很多收紧 you want a few things. One, you want a large base, and when I mean a large base, it's usually a year or more, and you want lots of tightenings.
你想要经历这个过程 这个VCP过程 很多次这样你就可以淘汰那些供应 让那些股票转手 You want to go through that process, that VCP process, a number of times so you can weed through that supply and have that that stock change hands.
我的问题是 嗯 再一次 你看 你可能你可以从这里买到它 但是 你知道 你可能有供应问题 The problem I have with this is that, um, and again, you see here, you you could have probably bought it coming out of here, but again, you know, you had probably that supply issue.
然后你来到这里 你看到这里有一些波动 你知道 这变得不稳定 And and you came in here, and you're seeing there's, there's some volatility here, you know, this is getting volatile.
对我来说 这还是有点不稳定的右边 To me, this is still a bit volatile the right side.
它看起来不是很好我在另一个屏幕上快速地打开它 It just, it doesn't look that great as far as I'll just bring this up on another screen real quick.
L-P-I 我们看这里 但当然 我没有收到RS号码 L-P-I, let's see here. But of course, I'm not getting an RS number on.
我不知道刚才发生了什么 Marcus Smith I don't know what just happened here.
我只是在找RS号码 I was just looking for the RS numbers.
我知道RS是什么了 I see what the RS was.
因为某些原因 它还没有上市 Um, for some reason, it's not coming up on markets.
但是 哦 97 好吧 我喜欢精力充沛的97岁老人 But, oh, 97. Okay. I like the 97 year olds of strength.
当然是在石油区域 所以这是一个很强的区域 Of course it's in the oil area, so that's a strong area.
但是 还要记住另一件事 But again, remember another thing too.
这只股票在一个非常强势的集团中 就像石油股一样 这是一只落后的股票 This is a stock that in a group that's so strong, like the oil stocks, this is a lagger.
我的意思是 即使作为一个97的相对力量 看看它的作用它在石油组做了很多 I mean, even though, as a 97 relative strength, look at the action it has it done much um in this oil group?
在这几个月里 当你有一些东西 比如奥施康定的时候 这就导致了这一举动 And in all these months, while you have something like uh an Oxy, which has made look at this move.
我知道我们写了很多台词和注释 但最近做了件好事 I know we got a lot of lines here and notes, but made this nice move recently.
所以我不知道落后者是否会尝试去追赶领导者 也许你会得到一些招式 但通常落后者不会给出领导者会给出的招式 So I don't know if the laggers are going to try to play catch up with maybe some of these leaders, and maybe you get a little move, but usually the laggers don't give you the type of moves that you're going to get from the leaders.
我想 我想选这个组里 比较有代表性的名字 And I would, I would stick with, uh, more leading type names in this group.
是的 CP的外观非常相似 Yeah. And CP has a very similar look.
所以 你知道 把它拉上来 嗯 相关或不相关的问题 So, you know, to pull that up, um, separate related or unrelated question.
相反 埃里克是在问 他记得你 你有一份市场领先股票的名单 你在什么时候删除它们 只有当它们下跌超过50%还是什么 Rather, eric is asking, he remembers you, having mentioned that you keep a list of the market leading stocks, at what point do you remove them, only if they have fallen more than 50% Or what?
使用什么标准 我只是在更新我的名单 每天 每周 What criteria to use? Well, I'm just updating my list every, you know, every day, every week.
所以标准是相同的 一遍又一遍 只是在上涨趋势中寻找股票 阶段性的上涨 在有VCP特征的基础上 So the criteria is the same criteria, over and over, just looking for stocks in up trends, stage show uptread, in bases that have VCP characteristics.
就是这么简单 你知道他们是否他们是否符合这个标准 It's that simple. You know if they're if they're meeting that criteria.
当然 就像我刚才比较的那样 我看了一些东西 比如奥施康定 把它和LPI进行比较 你可以看到哪只股票 呃 引领潮流 如果你愿意的话 嗯 哪只股票落后 Now, of course, like I just compared, I took a look at something like an oxy, compared it to, uh, the LPI, and you can see which stock has been, uh, leading the charge, if you will, um in which stock stock has lagged.
那么 如何找到领跑者 尤其是在市场低点之外 当女巫股票第1号进入新的高点或接近新的高点时 哪些股票是第1号从基地开始出现的 哪些股票从低点反弹最快 哪些股票的价格进步最好 So the way to find the leaders, especially off the the market lows, as witch stocks are coming into new high ground 1ST or close to new high ground, which stocks are emerging from bases 1ST, which stocks are rebounding the fastest off the lows, which stocks are making the best price progress?
所有这些在我的书里都有解释 All this is explained in my books.
如果你像一个股市奇才一样回到我的第一本书 交易 有一个完整的章节 是关于在修正中寻找什么 If you go back to my 1st book trade like A-A stock market wizard, there's a whole, is a section on what to look for coming out of a correction.
好的 来自迪恩的问题 上周我们在谈论艾薇 他问我3点23分的撤退是否能被认为是撤退 这样你就能在基地爆发后进去 OK, question from Dean. We were talking about Ivy t last week, and he was asking if the 03:23 pull back would be considered a pull back that would allow you to get in after the breakout for the base.
我们不是已经解决这个问题了吗 I-I didn't we already address this question?
我发誓我已经回答了这个问题 但是 嗯 我想我的答案是 你知道 我想买它从基座出来但是如果你错过了它 嗯 当然你可以在拉回来的时候买 但是我会很小心 在杆子回来的时候买 除非它在转回来 I swear I answered this question already, but, um, and I think my answer was, you know, I would be looking to buy it coming out of the base and but if you missed it, uh, certainly you could have bought it on the pull back, but I would be careful of buying it on the pole back, unless it's turning back up.
有时候 你知道 刚开始的时候 如果它拉回爆发 你可以看到它是否开始出现 Sometimes, you know, intry day, if it pulls back to the break out, you can see if it starts to turn up.
但我希望我的生意能有一些进展 But I-I like to see some type of progress in in the direction of my trade.
所以 也许第二天你就能买得起了 So, or maybe the next day you could afford it.
你那边确实有撤退 You did have a pullback by there.
你有那个 但它早上进去了 最后出来了 You had that, but it went inside in the morning, ended up coming out at squatter.
但第二天就出现了反转复苏 But you got a reversal recovery the next day.
到目前为止 它的表现非常好 但是 你知道 当然 很明显 它在16日和17日合并 从那个基础出来 你有几天的反弹 然后 你当然可以尝试进入 如果你在回调时错过了它 因为它又回来了 So this has been acting really well so far so, but, you know, of course, obviously the uh it 80 merged on the the 16th and the 17th, coming out of that base, you got a few days a rally, and then yet, you could certainly have tried to get in if you missed it on that pullback as it turned back up.
是的 我还在问 因为3月23日似乎还没有收盘交易区间的前50% 所以他不知道23日的交易是否符合条件 Yeah, also just was asking because that, um, march 23 day did not seem to be closing the top 50% of the trading range, so he didn't know if that was a qualified on the 23rd.
好吧 好吧 不 是这样的 Well, yeah, well, no, yeah, it is.
它很好 我的意思是 即使它关闭在低 它不会那么开胃 但它仍然 呃 还是可以玩的 如果它在进去后 呃 那天的高潮 It's fine. I mean, even if it closed on the low, it wouldn't be as appetizing, but it still, uh, would be playable if it took out the, uh, that day s high after going inside.
这就是我们所说的进入时两步回调 That would be what we call a two step pullback by entry.
Jerry s发现公用事业部门表现强劲 Jerry's found that the utility sector are performing strong.
ExcelU是他想知道的在加息的环境下 Excel U is the TF he's wondering In a rate hike environment,
你能告诉我为什么公用事业公司会这么强势吗 if you could share why the utilities would be acting so strong?
他知道 我知道我的基本思想与股票设置无关 这太奇怪了 He knows. I know that my fundamental thought don't matter stock setups, that is all weird.
如果是我 我就不买水电费 公用事业的发展将会非常缓慢 I-I-I would avoid the utilities. And utilities are gonna be very slow growers.
有一段时间他们可以做得很好 There's there's periods where they where they can do well.
和 你知道 我不知道确切的原因股票反弹 你知道的 但是 但底线是 你知道 从历史上看 呃 你知道 有进攻 嗯 这可能是在当市场不是做得很好 你得到了 你会进入烟草和食品和公用事业和更具防御性的事情 但保卫这些防守错误通常是增长放缓 而不是 呃 领先的行业 And for, you know, I-I don't know the exact reason why a stock is rallying, you know, but, but the bottom line is is that, you know, historically, uh, you know, there it's offensive, um, it could be in when the market's not doing well, you get, you get moves into tobaccos and foods and utilities and things that are more defensive, but defend these defensive errors are generally um slower growth, and not the, uh, the the the leading sectors.
UM 公用事业部门可以引领 你知道 在周期的某些部分 但它通常是短暂的 UM, something like a utility sector could lead, you know, in certain parts of the cycle, but it's usually going to be short lived.
这些都不是你能够获得长期走势的增长领域 These aren't, these aren't growth areas where you're going to be able to get secular moves, usually.
所以我 我就不买水电费了 但可以接受做个交易 So I-I would just, you know, I would avoid the utilities, but accept for maybe a trade.
陆军的问题是去年你在哪里能够识别出在2月的高点之后市场的什么主题在起作用 短期是你主要玩的 Army is asking where last year you were able to identify what theme was working in the market after the February high uh, a shorter term is what you have predominantly played.
他问的是你是否已经 或者能够确定今年什么主题最适合你 He's asking if you have been, or are able to identify what theme is working for best this year.
现在 有一个很好的问题 这才是我们应该问的问题 Now, there's a great question. That's the kind of questions that we should be asking.
马克 我也会问你的 Um, well, mark, I'll ask you too.
你是否 你是否已经掌握了任何主题 除了这个事实 石油 能源股票 煤炭 呃 呃 运输和农业股票 已经被分类了 Have you, have you been able to grasp on to any themes yet, except the fact that we have, of course, oils, the energy stocks, the coal and the, um, uh, the shippers and the ag stocks, have been sorted the groups.
我想说这就是主题 I would say that's the theme.
但就技术主题而言 我 呃 我们已经能抓住它了 But as far as a technical theme, I've, uh, we've been able to latch on it.
你还没有想到吗 我想说的吗 Aren't anything yet you think? I would say?
没有 老实说 还是老样子 你知道吗 No. So honestly, a little bit more of the same, you know it?
感觉像是同一群人 It feels like some of the same group.
是的 这确实培育了市场 Yes, that really breeds the market.
仍然是领先的群体 Are still the groups that are leading.
我觉得你让这个周末变得很平常 I think you made a common the weekend.
视频 我们非常希望看到一些新的团队或新的领导 Video. We really like to see some new groups or new leadership.
我们还没有看到 你知道 有很多痘痘在一两天或三天内都有效 然后我们仍然看到很多泄漏 We haven't seen that yet. And it's been, you know, there's been an awful lot of breakouts that work for a day or two or three, and then we're still seeing a lot of leakage.
所以打 我仍然同意马克的观点 我不认为我们已经看到了一个真正成熟的长期工作环境的转变 So dozen. I still, yeah, I agree with Mark, and I don't think that we've seen that shift to really a full blown sling environment working for the longer term.
好吧 如果你愿意的话 Uh, uh, you know, upside, if you will.
嗯 还有 领导层 Um And And again, the leadership.
我的意思是 你知道 我们 我们可以说石油股票新领导层 因为当然 如果你回到那个年代 上周与斯坦·温斯坦和我有一个讨论关于这个 嗯 但她认为还在一个光秃秃的市场 而且 你知道 这可能是 或类似于1970年代 你在哪里 你知道 油区域 得到能量 能源股 和地区 没有领导 呃 领先 I mean, you know, we, we could say that the oil stocks are new leadership, because certainly, if you go back to the seventies, and I had a discussion with Stan Weinstein last week about this, UM, but she thinks were still in a bare market, and that, you know it, it could be, or is similar to the 1970s, where you get, you know, the the oil area, and you get the energies, energy stocks, and and areas that have not led for a while, to, uh, to lead.
这些都是周期性的 Um, again, those are cyclical, you know.
在某些环境下 它们可以走很远 And and in certain environments, they can go a good distance.
同样 我认为我没有看到很大的变化 And again, so I-I think that I do not see a big change.
我认为主题仍然是流行和下降 I think the theme is still that pop and drop.
你知道 也许它现在分裂了 You know, maybe it's split now.
所以不是在整个股票市场都有涨跌的主题 基本上每只股票都突破了一个基数 或者几乎每只股票 不 9590只 8%的股票 它们只是上涨几天或一周 然后回来 So instead of having the pop and drop theme across the entire board, where basically every stock that's breaking out of a base, or virtually every stock, no, 9590, 8% of them, they just go up for a few days or a week, and then come back in.
嗯 现在你知道你在哪些领域进行了分割 你知道一些领域正在发挥作用 比如农业股票 比如石油 Um. Now you've got where you've split, and you've got some areas that are working, like the ag stocks, like the oils um.
这可能有点太长了 至少在短期基础上 但现在我认为你已经分裂了市场 但你仍然没有那种普遍的 轻松的美元环境 股票在认真地移动 And that may be getting a little bit long on the tooth now, at least on on a short term basis, but now I think you've split the market, but still you don't have that universal, easy dollar environment where stocks are moving in earnest.
你们有了新的增长领导 我还是觉得我们的市场有点扫兴 如果有的话 这就是主题 扫兴的主题 You've got new growth leadership. I-I still think we've got basically like a wet blanket over the market here, if any, that's the theme, the wet blanket theme.
约翰 在多年的交易之后 你在交易后的分析中有哪些东西是人们会忽略的 而你却看到了 并使你成为更好的交易者 John, just asking for both marks after years of trading, what things in your post trade analysis that people would overlook, that you saw and made you an even better trader?
人们会忽略什么 What things that people would overlook?
很多很多事情 他们会忽略你应该做的所有事情 因为作为一个新手 你会完全违背直觉思考 所以你会犯各种错误 Lots and lots of things. They're gonna overlook almost all the things that you should be doing, because as a new trader, you're going to be thinking completely counterintuitively, so you're going to make all kinds of mistakes.
关键是不要担心所有的事情 所有你会犯的错误和所有你不应该做的事情 And the key is not to worry about all the things, all the mistakes you're going to make and all the things you shouldn't do.
解决这个问题的关键 The key to combating that
就是找出你应该做什么并把注意力集中在那几个标准上这些标准才是你应该关注的 is to find out what you should be doing and concentrate on those few, uh criteria that are the criteria that you should be focusing on.
非常关注你的 你的标准 以及你管理交易和风险的方式 Get very focused on on your, on your by criteria, and and the the way that you, uh, you manage your trades and manage the risk.
这确实是 And that really is, is a
相对较小的列表 你知道 当你把它拆分的时候 就像我说的 就是寻找那些在上升趋势中有基础的股票 那些最有影响力的股票 阿尔法指数高的股票 从低风险的入市点出来 在不成功的股票上减少损失 在事情成功之前保持很小的规模 除非你的耳朵看到了吸引力 否则不要太激进 relatively small list. You know, when you, when you break it down, like I said, it's looking for stocks that are in bases in up trends that are the most powerful names, the high alphan names, coming out of low risk entry points and cutting their losses on the ones that don't work out, and staying very small until things work, and never getting aggressive unless your ears seeing traction.
这就是我过去30年所做的一切 That's really that sums up everything I've done for the last 30 years.
你知道 我不知道 马克是你忽略的东西 You know, I don't know, mark was the things that, you know, you overlooked.
我的意思是 当我开始做的时候 我忽略了几乎所有的事情 我是说 我忽略了 呃 你知道 在我开始真正了解我在做什么之前 我已经忽略了大约六七年的所有事情 And, I mean, I overlook just about everything when I started, I mean, I was overlooking, uh, you know, just about everything for about six or seven years before I started even really having a clue as to what I was doing.
但是 我没有这样的论坛 也没有你们现在所接受的教育 But, but I didn't have this type of forum and and the type of education that you have now.
是的 我想说 如果你做交易后分析 你已经超过了99%我的意思是 我知道有多少人不这么做 Yeah, I would say if you're doing post trade analysis, you're already ahead of what 99% of I mean, I'm jacked the number of people who don't do this.
我是说 完全被震住了 做专业人士即使他们不跟踪这些东西 I mean, just blown away. Um, be professionals even that don't track this stuff.
嗯 我想补充一点 我认为当你看到的时候 你会看到两件事 Um. And I would add, though, I think when you see, you'll see two things.
很明显 你会有一些自己的倾向 好的和坏的 你想要检查这两种 You know, you'll obviously some of your own tendencies, good and bad, and you want to examine both of those.
但我记得 我只是在做一项研究 因为我面临的一个诱惑 尤其是在早期 就是过度交易 所以比你应该拥有的更多的特质 而不是挑剔 然后当你只是研究 比如 我的更好的交易是什么 它们在哪些领域 就可以增加你走出去的信心 But I can remember, I'm just doing a study, because one of the temptations I had, especially early on, was to over trade, so taking more traits than you should, not being a selective And then when, when you just studied, like, well, what were what were my better trades, and what areas were they in it just can increase your confidence to go out.
如果我真的能 继续限制低质量的组合 并进行更多的选择 就会产生更好的结果 If I can really, you know, again, continue to limit the the less quality set ups, and really be more selective, it's going to produce better results.
而你只能 只能 只有你 只有你能做到 And you can only, only, you, only you can do that.
就是这样 这是整个交易后分析的一种 它导致了你无法通过其他方式获得的成熟 That's kind of the thing. This is one of the the whole post trade analysis, and it leads to maturity that you can't gain in any other way.
是的 当然 你不能强迫体验 Yeah, absolutely. You can't force experience.
你需要自己去争取 You need to get that yourself.
我认为马克刚刚触及了一个重要的问题 And I think Mark just touched on something that is important.
我想说的两件事 我现在记起来的两件事 The two things I would say, the two things I've now Mark Mark jarred my memory.
或者 实际上我应该 你知道 在分析之后 嗯 知道数学 做我的数字实际上是我从很早开始做的事情 所以我一直很擅长 Or, or I should actually, you know, post analysis and, um, and knowing the math, doing my numbers was actually something that I did from very early on, so I was always good at that.
但我发现 就像马克刚才说的 令人吃惊的是 很少有交易员做后期分析 甚至保留他们的数据记录 分析这些数据 了解交易背后的数学 But what I found is that, as Mark just said, um, it's, it's startling and an amazing how few traders do post analysis and and even maintain records of their numbers and and analyze those numbers and know the math behind their trading.
你要做的第一件事就是你必须知道交易背后的数学原理 The very, very 1st thing you have to do is you have to know the math behind your trading.
你必须在不了解大量信息的情况下知道交易的情况 You have to know what's going on in your trading without knowing that mass.
这就像驾驶一架没有仪表板的飞机 It's like flying a plane with a no instrument panel.
底线是 就管理风险而言 我的意思是 你怎么可能知道你应该在哪里设置止损点和管理风险呢 And and the bottom line is is that as far as managing risk is concerned, I mean, how could you possibly know where you should be setting your stop and managing your risk?
如果你不知道等式的另一边呢 If you don't know the other side of the equation?
你不知道它的好处 你不知道平均收益或平均成功率 那么你就不可能对风险做出明智的决定 You don't, you don't know the upside, you don't know the average gain or the batting average, then there's no way you can come up with an intelligent decision for the risk.
后期分析会告诉你你在做什么 然后回头看看你在做什么 Um, the post analysis is going to show you what you're doing and be able to look back and see what you're doing.
然后你会发现这是最好的老师 And then you will find that's the best teacher of all.
你会找到公分母 每个人都有一些共同的事情 通常每个人都是不同的 You will find common denominators. Everybody has certain common things that they do, and usually it's different for each person, um.
你会说 哦 你会看到 哇 我做了一次又一次 一次又一次 And you'll say, oh, you'll see, wow, I do that over and over and over and over again.
这样你就能真正找到问题所在了 And you'll start to really home down where the trouble areas are.
你也可以看到你做得很好 And also you can see what you're doing well.
它是真实的 它会给你最清晰的画面 And and it's real, that's going to give you the clearest picture.
所以我认为人们忽视的是后期分析和数字计算 So I think the thing I think that people overlook is the post analysis and the calculating the numbers.
我们有分析 你可以输入你的所有交易 We have the analytics where you can enter all your trades.
我知道这需要努力 但是 很遗憾地告诉你 巨大的成功需要努力 这是成功的一部分 I know it's work and but, sorry to tell you, but big success takes work, and that's part of it.
好吧 约翰·万我想问一下a-v-g-o 如果这是 这是一种情况吗 Okay, uh, john Wan Rather asking about A-V-G-O, if this would be, this would be a pull back by situation?
我是说 严格来说 是的 你知道的 Um, well, I mean, technically, yes, you know.
我的意思是 任何能收回的东西 进入内部 把前一天的高潮抽走 关键是 它在哪里 I mean anything that pulls back, goes inside, takes out the previous day's high as pull back by, um, it that the key is, where does it reside?
你知道 这是关键 对我来说 回拉的时候 我希望它在底部 从低脸颊 作弊者 手柄 或者可能是一次又一次的回拉突破 That's the key, you know. And and for me, for a pullback by, I want it to be in the base, coming from the low cheek, the cheater, the handle, or possibly a pull back to the breakout after breakout.
所以基本上 你有四个入门级别 So you basically, you have those four, you know, entry levels.
这将来自廉价 This would be coming from a cheap.
再说一遍 最便宜的已经在这里了 Uh, you know, again, the low cheap was already right here.
现在你是廉价出身了 Now you're coming from the cheap.
所以 是的 这是在这里拉回来的 So, yes, this would be a pulled back by right here.
我们已经打开了这个 And we have this actually on
在观察名单上 在这个过程中 如果我现在不在电话上 我可能刚刚升级到biler on a watch list here. And as this is moving through, if I wasn't on the call right now, I've probably just upgraded here to biler.
布莱恩问你们能不能跟他谈谈你们是怎么交易假球的 为什么你要表现出优势或劣势 然后退出 Brian is asking if you guys can go talk through how you trade a paraplay, where why you'd look to sound a strength or weakness, and exit.
在我第一次卖出游戏后 我便会努力去管理这些内容 通常是20%左右 因为这些内容会快速发展 而我也不想归还游戏 I struggle to manage these after my 1st sale, usually around 20 %, because they tend to move quickly, and I don't want to give back the game.
我知道马克·里奇在2月9号的亚历克斯·U中有一些很好的规则 作为一个很好的例子 亚历克斯·U 让我们把它提出来 I know Mark Ritchie has some great rules in this alex U coming out around february 9, as a decent example, alex you, let's bring that up.
所以 你要意识到 你要回头看看这些交易 你要做你的后期分析 就像我们刚才说的 你会发现你很少能看到完美的 你知道 So again, you know, you have to realize that, you know, you're gonna go back and you're gonna look at these trades, and you do your post analysis, as we just said, and you're going to find that you very rarely ever saw perfectly, um, you know.
再说一遍 这不是重点 So, so again, that's not what it's about.
但如果你回头看 你分析你所有的权力游戏 嗯嗯 交易 你会发现 这是马克可以谈论的 因为这就是他所做的 But if you go back and you look and say, you analyze all your power play, uh uh, trades, and you find, and this is something Mark can talk to, because that this is what he did.
他意识到他卖得太快了 而且这些股票的价格要高得多 He realized that he was selling them too soon, and that that the these stocks were going much higher.
很多年前我也做过同样的事情 当我第一次开始交易的时候 我意识到强大的地方真的可以在短时间内让那些速度大的移动 And and I did the same thing back many years ago, when I 1st started trading, I realized that the power place really could make those velocity big moves in a short period of time.
所以你能做的一件事 当然就是回去阻止它 Um, so one of the things you can do, of course, is back stop it.
给它点空间 后退停下 卖掉一部分 Um, give it some room, back stop it, sell part of it.
财务风险 我是说 这一切和其他交易没有什么不同 Financial risk. I mean, all this no different than any other trade.
我认为唯一的区别是 我总是说 我总是把权力游戏当作无罪推定 I think the only difference is is to give, I-I always say, I always give a power play the benefit of the doubt.
当然 这很模糊 但是 我想试着玩 And that that's, of course, vague, but, um, I want to try to play them.
你知道 当 即使市场不好 如果如果我得到一个非常好的 完美的权力 从低scanpoint 我可能会买它 You know, when, even if the market's bad, if if I get a really great, perfect power play set up coming out of lower scantry point, I'm probably going to buy it.
即使 你知道 市场 或者我的 你知道 风险模型在他的手机上 不管怎样 我可能仍然持有小头寸 Even if the, you know, the market, or my, you know, risk models are on his cell, whatever, I probably still take a small position.
马克 你呢 就权力游戏而言 Um Mark, how about you? As far as the power plays?
你当然喜欢权力游戏 并且对此做了一些广泛的研究 You certainly love the power plays, and have done some extensive, uh, yeah, research on that.
是的 这实际上是对交易后分析的一个很好的跟进 对吗 Yeah. This is a good, actually, follow up to the idea of post trade analysis, right?
因为这是一个问题 有时你会得到 我得到更多的问题 像 我没有制定这些规则 他们 我的意思是 我是 在某种意义上 但它们 它们是由结果产生的 Because this is a question sometimes you get, I get more questions on, like, I didn't make these rules up, they well, I mean, I did, in the sense, but they, they were born out of the results.
实际上 最大的规则 与马克所说的假定无罪有关 So, and, and the biggest rule actually, is exactly related to what Mark just said about giving the benefit of the doubt.
所以从规则的角度来说 我不会阻止他 意思是如果我要施加压力 我就会阻止他 So what that looked like in terms of a rule is, I'm not gonna choke him off, meaning if I get into a power play, I'm giving it the stop.
这是由一些结果产生的 只有一小部分 我掐掉了 结果是4050 百分之百 And that was born out of the results of There were a few, just a handful that I choked off that wound up going up 4050, a hundred percent.
那么 有多少人值得为了额外的1%或2%而放弃呢 Well, how many of those are worth choking off for an extra one or 2 %?
所以我说 我算了一下 我不会再这么做了 So I just said, I just kind of did the math and said, I'm not doing that again.
然后另一个 作为一般规则 是更多 假设它是有效的 And then the other one, as a general rule, is to go for more, assuming it's working.
我知道拉迪人对我说的每件事都很认真 我不想以2比1的价格卖给你 So, uh, I know Ladi guys take everything literally when I say, I don't want to sell, say, for a two to one into strength.
所以 如果股票真的在变动 我想试一试 至少持有一部分 等待更大的变动 So if the, if the stock is really moving, I want to try it, and at least hold a piece of it for a bigger move.
通常情况下 你知道 四比五 一的概率我才会获利了结 And generally that's, you know, four, five to one before I would take profits.
我想问题是 卖了一大块之后你会做什么 I think the question, though, was about what do you do after you've sold a good chunk?
这是我没有硬性规定的地方 除了我要把我的停车位置往上移 嗯 挂住 你可以使用 很明显 某种类型的 嗯 什么类型的停车 And this is where I don't have a hard rule, other than I'm going to move my stop up, um, hanging on to You can use, obviously, some type of, uh, what's the, what's the type of stop?
你我忘了怎么说了 不是后面的句号 而是后面的句号 You I'm forgetting the vernacular mark, not a trailing stop, but A-A back stop.
后停止 对不起 是的 这就是我通常的建议 Back stop. Sorry. Yes, that's what I would generally recommend.
我只会选择一个领域 你会说 我只是不想回报超出这个范围 And I would just pick in an area where you're, you're saying, I just don't want to give back beyond this.
显然 如果有技术上的问题 那就更好了 因为它真的很不稳定 Obviously, if there's a technical spot, that's even better, because it can be really volatile.
然后我就会用挡板让它和股票一起上涨 And then I would just use the backstop and let it run up with the stock.
特别是当它开始变成抛物线时 是的 我的意思是 两件事 So especially if it starts to get parabolic, yeah, I mean, two things.
一个是 如果你是做短期交易的 你必须忠于自己的风格 One is that, if you look, if you're a short term trader, you gotta be true to your style, um?
你知道 选择短期的变动可能会更好 And you know, you might be better off just taking the shorter term move.
当然 你的投资组合的收益也在增加 这是其中的一部分 And you're, of course, you're turning your portfolio over more, and this is part of it.
现在采取那些更大的行动并不是你战略的一个重要组成部分 或者对实现你的目标没有必要 And going for those bigger moves now are isn't really a part, a big part of your your strategy, or or it's not necessary to get to your goal?
还是那句话 这取决于你的风格 你的策略以及你的完美程度 Um, again, it depends on your style, your strategy and and perfection.
你想完美地执行你的计划 You know, you want to execute your plan perfectly.
你必须记住 如果你追求完美 你应该追求的完美是完善你的过程和完善你的计划的执行 You have to remember, here's the thing If you're going for perfection, the perfection you should go for is to perfect your process and to perfect executing your plan.
但这并不意味着你要完美退出 他们会在高点退出 你和你所有的行动都将是完美的 因为他们不是 But that does not mean that you're going to perfectly exit and they're gonna get out at the high and you're and all your moves are gonna be perfect in hindsight, cause they're not.
你会犯很多错误的 You're gonna make so many mistakes.
我还是会犯无数的错误 我这辈子都在说这个 但不同的是 我的 I still make a zillion mistakes, and I've been telling this my entire life, so, but the difference is that my, you know, my
错误并不大 相对于我所做的事情来说 它们是相对较小的 mistakes aren't huge, and relative to my the things I do good, they're relatively small.
这就是关键 关键是要管理好你的风险和回报 你的大错误和小错误 And that's the key. The key is to manage your risk versus your reward, your big mistakes versus your small mistakes.
为了保持这个 一定要保持一个比例 And to keep that, always keep a ratio.
在所有这些事情中都有优势 Uh, that there's an edge in all those things.
你看 这就是这就是我们的目标 See, that's that's really, you know, that's the goal.
再说一次 我们都想做到完美 我们想 你知道 从股票的变动中获得最大的收益 And again, we all want to be perfect, and we'd love to, you know, get the most out of a stock move.
但是如果你太过专注于此 你就会失去 你会失去真正的目标 那就是获得净利润 然后把它翻出来 尽你所能地做很多次 然后达到你的目标 Uh, but if you get too focused on that, you'll lose, you lose A-A sight of the actual goal, and that is to make a net profit and to turn it over, to do it as many times as you can, and to get to your goal.
这是真实的 你知道的 That's the real you know that.
这就是关键所在 但事后分析会告诉你 如果你碰巧习惯提前卖出 那么事后分析就会很清楚 That that's the key here. But the post analysis will tell you, you know, if you're if you happen to be habitually selling early, then you know, then it'll be clear as a bell with the post analysis.
帕特里夏的一个小问题 问ddoG如果你有狗 是的 在这里 A quick question from Patricia. Ask about ddo G If if you had a dog, yep said up here.
是啊 我照看那只狗很久了 你知道的 Yeah, I've been watching that dog for a long time, um, you know.
而且 你知道 公司有一些本质上好的东西 你知道 在发展 And there's, you know, some fundamentally good things that have, you know, gone on with the company.
嗯 这里很不稳定 你看到我在这里找什么了吗 Um, it's very volatile here. And you see what I was looking for down here?
其实我在这里就开始感兴趣了 I was actually getting interested in it right here.
在市场调整中保持得相对较好 并试图在这里站稳脚跟 Was holding up relatively well with the market correction and trying to set up here.
我希望它能上升 收紧 然后把供给清空 I was looking for it to come up, tighten up, and then be able to clear out that supply.
我想在这下面 那里有太多的补给了 I thought down here, there was a bit too much supply to get involved there.
然后马上就掉下来了 Um, and right away it came right off.
供应过剩 现在 你处于同样的情况 但情况更糟了 因为你有更多的供给 你挤进了供给 It got overwhelmed with supply. Now, you know, you're in that same situation, but it's, it's even a little bit worse, because you have even more supply, you're wedging up into that supply.
现在 这个可以很容易地从这里往上升 然后往上我不会追这个的 Now, this could very easily, um wedge its way up even more here and run up I-I would not chase this.
如果你要在这里买的话 那绝对是为了头皮 If anything, if you were to buy it here, it would absolutely be for a scalp.
如果用这个来交换 也许会 And might for if I was traded this.
因为你必须在左边供应 它在向上楔 Because you've got to supply on the left side, it's wedging up.
你只是右边没有一个很好的基地 You just don't have a well built out base in a right side.
呃 它仍然很不稳定 所以这个 这个已经从我的列表中删除了 Uh, it's still quite volatile. So this is, this is off of my list right now.
严格来说 还没有达到大多数人的水平 Uh, just has not got into that majority level, technically.
好的 弗雷德问 如果你考虑A-B-B-B 快乐观点在这个点上是一个扩展股 它是什么 All right, fred is asking, if you consider if A-B-B-B, happy view is an extended stock at this point, what is it?
a-b 万岁 万岁 胜利者 噢 a-B B A-B, bravo, bravo. Victor. Oh, A-B, B.
b是的 嗯 你知道 它是扩展的 B. Yeah. Well, you know, it's, it is extended.
我是说 这次谈话 嗯 你知道 你会回到你最近的基地 I mean, this talk has, um, you know, you'd go back to your most recent base.
我是说 就在这里 这里有一个碱 然后就发生了一些自然反应 I mean, right here. You had a base right here that came out of so and then you had just some natural reaction.
所以 是的 它从这里出来了 而且看不到基地 So, yeah, this has come away here, and there's no base in sight.
那么它是扩展的吗 绝对的 你知道 我自己永远不会在这里买这个 因为它不是从基地出来的 So is it extended? Absolutely. You know, I would never be buying this here myself, because it's not coming out of the base.
我只在基本面上涨的时候买入 I'm only buying stocks coming out of the base once they're up.
我希望自己要么已经成为他们的一员 要么把他们的实力卖给他们 I expect to either be already in them or be selling them into that strength.
这并不意味着从这里进货就不能涨很多 Does not mean it can't go a lot higher to stock a double from here.
我不知道 但是 它是延伸的吗 I don't know. But again, is it extended?
是的 它的程度 好了 有一个关于收益率曲线的版本是02 10的评论 Yes, its extent. All right, uh, there's a comment about some of the 02:10 in version on the yield curved mark.
问题是 转述或总结一下 这对你选择你喜欢的木材股票有多大影响 或者你是否会在市场上投资 Question, paraphrasing or summarizing, is, how much would that matter for you picking wood stocks your bite, or if you would even invest in the market?
什么都不重要 What it doesn't matter at all.
嗯 我当然知道 Um, I'm certainly aware of it.
如果你看过这个周末的视频 你知道 我对收益率曲线做了完整的评论 解释了 倒挂是如何发生的 几个月 如果不是几年 在你得到一个啤酒市场之前 And if you watched this Weekends video, I did entire, you know, commentary on the yield curve, and explain how, um, that inversion could happen, months, if not years, before you get a beer market.
旧的曲线可能不会一直倒挂 可能会暂时倒挂 你可以在经济中实现软着陆 股票市场可能已经贴现了 Um, the old curve may not stay inverted, and may be temporarily inverted, and you can get, um, a soft landing in the in the economy, and the stock market may have already discounted that.
所以 这是非常 有点模糊的 当然不是一个精确的指标 So, um, it's very, somewhat ambiguous, and certainly not a pinpoint indicator.
三个月的T法案和任期相比历史上更准确一些 指标燃料或预测啤酒市场衰退的读数 The three month T bill versus the tenure is a is a little bit more historically accurate, um indicator fuel or reading of predicting a recession of beer market.
这并没有颠倒过来 这实际上离求逆还有一段距离 And that has not inverted. That's actually quite a distance away from inverting.
所以 嗯 所以 我们肯定会进入一个反向收益率环境 但这肯定不会杀死市场 So, um. So again, we're definitely, you know, heading into an inverted yield environment, but that's definitely not something that necessarily has to kill the market.
我当然不会基于此交易任何股票 And I certainly wouldn't trade any stocks based on that whatsoever.
好吧 迈克尔在问 你还认为这场熊市 这场酒吧熊市 会像1998年那样 还是你有另一个总裁可以比较 Okay, michael is asking, do you still think the bear, this bar bear market, is playing out like 1998, or do you have another president to compare to?
我觉得还是和98差不多 I think it's still similar to 98.
你知道 他们的98年在表面之下是残酷的 寿命相对较短 Um, you know, their 98 was a brutal beneath the surface, was relatively short lived
并包含在索引中 嗯 市场并不总是精确地重复 但是 当然 你会得到一些相似之处 and contained in the indexes. UM So again, they the the the uh, market doesn't always, uh, repeat exactly, but, uh, you get some similarities, of course.
先例总是好的 我发现优先级更有效 而且与个别股票的关系更密切 而不是与实际的整体市场 And precedents are always good. I find the precedence work much better, and are more closely related, um, with individual stocks, than they are with the actual general market.
一般的市场更随机 The general market is much more random, um.
所以优先级 你知道 对于单个股票 你可以得到非常 非常 非常相似的价格走势 在一些模式中等等 So the precedence, you know, for the, for individual stocks, you can get very, very, very similar price action, uh, in in some of these patterns and so forth.
嗯 但是 是的 我想是的 但是我 我不 再次 我们进入这些语义学 我们开始尝试分类事物 并想出盒子来放置市场和我们的想法 Uh, so, but, yeah, I-I think so, but I-I don't, again, we get into these semantics, and we start start trying to categorize things and come up with boxes to put the market and our ideas.
这就导致了我们固执己见 有时会错失良机 因为 你知道 我们形成了这样的观点 而现在要反对这种观点 也许股票的走势 我们会想 这将是一个更大的熊市 And and that leads to digging in with an opinion, and sometimes missing out an opportunities, because, you know, we formed this opinion, and now to go against that opinion, maybe the the stock set up, and we're thinking, this is going to be a bigger bear market.
你得非常小心 You gotta be very careful of that.
你知道的 把股票归档 然后交易 You know, just file the stocks and trade the stocks.
我说过 如果没有索引呢 Like I said, what if we never had indexes?
你为什么不试试呢 去吧 试着带着指数不存在的想法进行一年的交易 Why don't you try? Go, try trading for a year with with the idea that indexes don't exist.
试试 你想成为一个更好的交易者 Try that. You want to become a better trader.
我来告诉你怎么做 I'm going to tell you how to do it.
关闭索引 一整年都不要看他们 Shut the indexes off. Don't ever look at them for an entire year.
看看你能不能做到 See if you can do it.
以我的一年挑战为例 看看你能不能把电视关掉 Take my one year challenge. See if you can shut the T-V off.
关闭索引 一整年都不要看新闻和指数 Shut the indexes off. Don't watch the news and don't watch the indexes for an entire year.
看看你能不能坚持一个月甚至一个星期 See if you can do it for a month or even a week.
有些人几天都做不到 Some people can't do it for a few days.
所以我刚试了一个月 So I just tried for a month 1st.
但试着这样过一年 But try to go for a year of this.
在年底 我向你保证你会成为一个更好的股票交易者 100%保证你会更擅长个股交易 And at the end of the year, I will assure you that you will be a better stock trader, 100% guaranteed that you will be better at trading individual stocks.
你要关注个股 当它们的股票形成时 把它们作为你的指标 That you're going to focus on individual stocks, and just use the stocks as you're indicator when their stock set ups.
你买一些设备 试水 You buy some setups and and test the waters.
如果你想获得关注 就增加曝光率 If you're getting traction, increase your exposure.
如果那样的话 如果你得不到牵引力 就减少接触 If that, if you're not getting traction, decrease your exposure.
你会发现你回过头来如果你能这样做一年 然后你回过头来把你的交易与市场联系起来 你会发现突然之间你就有了这种洞察力 And what you'll find is you'll go back and you overly if you were able to do that for a year, then you go back and you overlay your trading to the market, you'll find that all of a sudden you've got this clairvoyance.
你很擅长预测市场走势 你参与其中 你知道在市场触底的正确时机 你在市场触顶的时候退出 突然之间 你就有了这种预测能力 你会让自己大吃一惊 因为 你是在处理真实的事情本身 在表面之下 真正的市场 而不是 这个 这些平均值会掩盖实际发生的事情 You're, you're amazing at at predicting the market moves, that you're you're getting involved, you know at the right times when the market's bottoming, you're getting out when it's topping, and all of a sudden you'll have this predictive ability, and you'll surprise yourself, because, uh, uh, you're, you're dealing with the actual thing itself, beneath the surface, the real market, as opposed to the, uh, this, these averages that can mask what's actually going on.
这就是我的建议 在我常见的月初 So that that would be my advice, in my common start the month.
好吧 阿尼尔·安尼勒斯要求 嗯 用大量爆发的股票来做标记 然后马上卖出爆发的股票 All right? Anil Anilles is asking, uh, mark with a lot of stocks that are breaking out and then coming right back in selling breakouts.
他好像不怎么努力工作 Does not seem to be working so hard.
为什么不呢 为什么我们不等待回撤 然后以更低的价格进场呢 Why not? Why do we not just wait for pull back and then try to get in with lower price?
还有一个报价 你知道 本质上较低的风险回报也应该得到改善 And also a uh quote, you know, essentially a lower risk reward should also be improving.
为什么 答案是 因为水晶球在店里 Why? The answer is, because the crystal ball is in the shop.
我的意思是 这就是答案 这听起来可能有点讽刺 但事实并非如此 I mean, that's the answer. That may sound sarcastic, but it's not.
这是一件非常非常重要的事情 需要理解的是 我们不是 我们是 你说的是事后诸葛亮 It's a very, very important thing to to understand, is that we don't, we're, you're talking in hindsight.
我们不知道 我们现在才知道 We don't know that. We only know that now in hindsight.
当股票形成时 我们能做的就是以面值买入 So how When the stocks are setting up, all we can do is buy them at take them at face value.
实时管理风险 Risk is manage in real time.
你的曝光是实时的 Your exposure is put on in real time.
我们现在没有回顾过去的好处 We don't have the benefit of looking back now.
我们可以 我们可以看一下 如果我们想 我们不会交易任何正在建立的东西 我们会等着看它是否工作 OK We can take a bunch of we can take some looks if we want, and say, okay, we're not gonna trade anything that's setting up, and we'll wait to see if it's working.
这很好 但是你会 你可能会 That's fine. But then you're gonna you might Ms.
一些关键的领导人 所以你要做的就是减少仓位 不要冒太大的风险 如果一切顺利 你就逐渐进入市场 some of the key leaders. So the the trade off is to take smaller positions and not take too much risk, and then if things are working, you incrementally move into the market.
所以你会在一个完美的时机进入市场 或者如果你在一个完全错误的时机进入市场 你就不会冒太大的风险 你会逐渐进入市场 So you'll get into the market a little bit at the perfect time, or if you're it's a complete wrong time, it'll be a little bit so you won't risk too much, and you'll incrementally build into the market.
你会看到 市场底部在X和和和之间 为什么呢 And you'll have, say, the market bottoms between, you know, X and and and and why?
假设这个范围是平均的10% Let's say that range is 10% on the averages.
所以你可能会在那里 在中间的某个地方 你知道 你会 或者当你达到那个更高的范围时 你会提升自己 但你一直在逐步提升自己 So you'll probably be in there, somewhere in the middle, you know, you'll be, or by the time you get up to that upper range, you'll move yourself up, but you've been moving yourself up incrementally.
再说一次 这不是为了荣誉 So again, this is not an honor off business.
你不能就这么等着 然后绿灯亮了 好了 各位 我们在泳池里 然后红灯亮了 You don't just wait and there's a green light, and okay, everybody, we're in the pool, and then there's a red light.
所有人都从泳池里出来 事情不是那样的 Everybody out of the pool. It just doesn't work that way.
如果每个人都能想出这种绿色 那就太好了 It'd be nice everybody, everybody tries to come up with that, that green
红色的系统 你知道 有一百万个指标在那里 所有这些东西 red system. You know, that's that there's a million indicators out there and all these things.
但最重要的是 你必须了解这些指标和读数这些茶叶有很大的局限性 它们只是给你一些指导 让你了解你所处的区域 然后你可以应用某些技术 了解环境 了解环境有多危险 But the bottom line is, what you have to understand about indicators and readings and and these tea leaves is that there's huge limitations, and that they're just there to give you some guidance and give you an idea of the zones that you're in, so then you can apply certain techniques and know, uh, you know, the environment, how risky the environment is.
但能告诉你环境风险有多大 或无风险有多大的最好信息 是你的机构 你的宇宙和机构的股票表现有多好 But the best thing that's going to tell you how risky the environment is, or how un risky it is, is how well the stocks are performing from your set up, from your universe and your set up.
现在 如果我给一个价值投资者提供建议 我也会得到完全相同的建议 Now, if, if, if I was advising a value investor, I'd be given on the exact same A-A advice.
唯一不同的是 这个人将从一个完全不同的设置购买 The only difference is is that person will be buying from a completely different setup.
他们可能是在市场下跌的时候买入 在跌至52周低点的趋势下买入股票 They're probably buying when the market's getting killed, buying stocks and a down trend that are hitting 52 week lows.
但同样的规则也适用于 你的策略有效吗 But the same rules would apply is, is your strategy working?
你是否打算继续加倍投入 在失败后再投入一大笔钱 Are you going to just keep doubling down and adding to sit adding a good money after bad when it's not working?
这就是 你知道的 这就是让凯茜惹上大麻烦的原因 And that's, you know, that's what's getting Cathy would in so much trouble now.
当然 她 公平地说 她有一个E-T-F 她有巨大的资本封闭 或者可能现在流出 And and of course, she's, you know, with all fairness, she's got an E-T-F, and she's, she's got huge inclose of the capital, or probably outflows now.
但她有很多钱可以投入使用 她必须投入资金 而且管理数十亿美元当然不是一件轻松的事情 But she has lots of money to put to work, and she has to put money to work, and and it's certainly no picnic to manage billions of dollars.
我现在就可以告诉你 I can tell you that now.
我过去拒绝过数亿美元的投资 只是因为 你知道 我知道它的局限性 我不想让自己处于对股票没有控制权的境地 如果我要管理自己的钱 管理数千万美元而不是成百上千的人 或数十亿美元 所以 I've turned down hundreds of millions of dollars to manage in the past, simply because, you know, I know the limitations of that, and I don't want to put myself into a position where I don't have the degree of control I have over stocks, that if I was to manage my own money and manage tens of millions versus hundreds of mens, or billions, so, um.
所以这里有一些限制 So there are some limitations there.
但是 但是再说一遍 你知道的 这是 你知道的 这是我的想法 But, but again, uh um, you know that, that's, uh, you know that, that's my thoughts on that.
我不知道 马克 他们说的每句话 他都说得很准 I don't know, mark, everything they add, he goes dead on.
是的 一般来说 一旦大家都认为痘痘不管用了 他们就会重新开始工作 Yeah. Generally, as soon as everybody thinks the breakouts don't work, is exactly when they'll start working again.
所以你做出调整 只买回调 然后打破工作 现在没有更多的回调 So you make that adjustment to only buying pullbacks, then to break out the working now there are no more pullbacks.
你会说 为什么我们不买痘痘呢 And you'll say, well, why don't we do buy the breakouts?
当你最终弄明白的时候 你知道 那就是它再次说 这个 And when you eventually figure that out, you know, that's when it says again, this.
请快速考虑一下 抱歉 鲍勃 但很快 考虑一下 Consider this real quick. Sorry, bob, but just real quick, just consider this.
我干这行已经3839年了 马克 而他干这行已经1112年了 I've been doing this for 3839 years now, mark, which he's been doing it for 1112 years or so.
我们在这个行业中有一些最好的业绩 We we've got some of the best performance in the business.
我们已经取得了 所有人可能都赚了数百万美元 你猜怎么着 We've made. All people may have made millions and millions of dollars, and guess what?
我们不相信自己的意见 我们都不相信自己的意见 We don't trust our opinion. We neither of us trust our opinion.
你知道 你知道 我不相信他的 Uh, you know, um, you know, I don't trust his.
他不相信我的 我们不相信我们自己 不愿意去挖掘市场 不愿意承担市场告诉我们的风险 He doesn't trust mine. And we don't trust our ourselves to the point where we're willing to go and dig in and take a position or take risk against what the market itself is telling us.
所以我们还是 我们还是歌舞团 你知道的 So we're still, you know, we're still kabuses, you know.
而且事情就会是这样的 And and that's the way it's gonna be.
永远都是这样的 That's the way it's always gonna be.
这就是我们一直以来的做法 这也是我们如此成功的原因 That's the way it's been, and that's why we've been so successful.
所以我认为 如果我们还没有弄清楚 当然 如果我还没有弄清楚将近40年 嗯 你可能还没有弄清楚你自己 So I think if we haven't been able to figure out, certainly, if I haven't been able to figure out it close to 40 years, um, you're probably not done on yourself.
我们被困在了凡人的位置上 不得不顺应潮流 在我们的 你知道 我们的 我们的 我们的决定上不断增加 And, and, and we're stuck being mere mortals and having to bend with the trend and and be incremental in our, in our, you know, our our, our decisions.
是的 我加的太多了 Yeah, I'll just add too much.
总有一个理由不去做某件事 你知道 不去玩 哦 天哪 There'll always be a reason not to do something, you know, not to play, oh boy.
是的 这是你要避免的 Yeah. And that's what you want to avoid, you know.
这就是 所以 这就是前面的切线的美妙之处 It's just, so, that's the beauty of to mark's tangent from before.
把所有的废话都删掉 你看 你可以专注于重要的事情 Just cut all that other crap out, you see, you can focus on what's important.
嗯 这听起来很残酷 不管怎样 我告诉你 这是一个 这是一个百万美元的事实 Um, and it sounds harsh or whatever, I'm telling you, it's a, it's a million dollar uh truth.
如果你善于忽视 你会让所有人都说你是白痴 因为 你知道 就像 就像我们说的2020年 哦 我们将进入下一个大萧条 世界将关闭 他们的股票到处都是 而我们正在购买它们 If you could get good at ignoring, and you'll have everybody else telling you're an idiot, because, you know, like, like we talked about 2020, oh, we're going to go in the next depression, and the world's shutting down, and their stocks everywhere, and we're buying them.
是吗 你知道 如果 如果 事实上 一切看起来都很好 你所有的绿灯都通过了 你可能迟到了或结束了 Yeah? And you know, if, if, in fact, everything looks great and you have all green lights, you're probably late or it's over.
是的 这是另一个这是另一个问题 Yeah, that's the other that's the other issue.
好吧 如果你等得太久 你知道 当我回到1990年 在1990年10月 当我第一次见到斯坦·韦恩斯坦时 我去纽约参加一个会议 所有的专家 所有的大人物 所有的专家 有些像内德·戴维斯研究中心 他有一些关于华尔街的最好的研究 就定量和宏观的东西而言 All right, if you wait too long, you know, when I go back to 1990, in October of 1990, when I had 1st met Stan Weinstein, I went to a conference in New York City, and all the gurus, all the big guys, all the gurus, and some like Ned Davis Research, who has some of the best research you know, on Wall Street, as far as quantitative A-A macro stuff, is concerned.
他们都是如此悲观 就像大家一致认为的那样 我们100%保证会跌到更低的水平 They were all so bearish. It was like the consensus was, we are 100% guaranteed to go lower here.
不可能有底 There's no way there's a bottom.
这是20世纪70年代的情况 还有很多需要改进 This is a 1970s type situation, and there's still lots to go.
果不其然 它正好在极低的位置 And sure enough, it was right at the dead low.
在非常低的位置 嗯 我很幸运 Right at the dead low. Um, I luckily,
幸运的是 有像 fortunately, was being guided by guys like
比尔·奥尼尔 在那里我没有把Macro作为我的线索 呃 指示器 Bill O'neil, where Um, I wasn't using Macro as my lead, uh, indicator.
我在看股票 我开始买美国外科和安进的好市多 在当时 好市多酒店 现在是一个大公司 只是一个 中型的小公司 I was looking at stocks, and I started buying U-S surgical and Amgen a Costco, at the time, which cost Costco Hotel, which is a big company now, was just a, was a meat, mid cap, smaller company.
没有多少人听说过家得宝 That note, not too many people ever heard of Home Depot.
当时甚至没有多少人听说过家得宝 Not too many people even heard of home Depot back then.
就连微软也相对来说是中等市值的股票 Um, even Microsoft was relatively and was was A-A midcap stock.
我买了所有这些没人听说过的股票 没人想买 然后从垒里出来 不断刷新新高 当整个天都要塌下来的时候 I was buying all these stocks that no one ever heard of, no one wanted to buy, and then hitting the new highs lists coming out of bases, when the whole the sky was falling.
我们就在战争的边缘 We were on the brink of war.
当时油价飙升 与现在非常相似 Oil prices were soaring, very similar to now.
所以 观察这些股票 它会告诉你到底发生了什么 So so again, watch those stocks, and that's going to tell you what's really going on.
他们是未来最好的预言家 They're the best forecaster of the future.
安德烈提出了一个有趣的问题 Um, kind of a interesting question here from Andre.
你对在你的投资组合中购买高比例的股票 这样你就可以用一小部分资金来做止损交易有什么看法 What is your opinion on buying a high percentage of your portfolio so you can finance your stop with a small percent.
例如 他建议在你的整个投资组合中买入50%的头寸 也就是其中的80% 当它上升1%时 你可以融资5%的止损 E.g., let's he's suggesting buying a 50% position of your entire portfolio, so in 80% of it, when it moves up 1 %, so you can finance a 5% stop.
好吧 现在你在想 对 这正是你应该想的 Okay, now you're thinking, right, that's, that's exactly how you should be thinking.
现在 这当然是危险的 因为当你现在持有大量头寸时 你必须更加坚持风险 Now, there's certainly a danger in that, because when you take big positions now, you've got to be even more of a stickler on the risk.
你得把握好时机 要更完美 You've got to get your timing, you know, even more perfect.
所以 这正是我的工作 So, but that's precisely what I do.
特别是当事情进展顺利的时候 我肯定会变得更有攻击性 Um, when things are working, in particular, I'm definitely getting much more aggressive.
事实上 他们的工作给了我更积极进取的机会 让我有能力为风险融资 而现在 如果你持有一个非常大的头寸 你必须卖得更少来为你的风险融资 And the fact that they're working gives me that opportunity to get more aggressive and to be able to finance that risk, where now, if you take a really a big position, you have to sell even less to finance your risk.
所以你可以 你可以想出任何你想要的排列 或者任何比例 So it you can. You can come up with any permutation you want, or any ratio.
是的 很明显 你持有的股票越朝你的方向发展 你卖出的就越少 Yeah, obviously, the bigger the position you take of the stock goes in your direction, the less that you have to you have to sell.
它也可能刚好相反 It can be just the opposite too.
你可以拿一个小的 卖更多的来承担风险 You can take a smaller and sell a lot more to finance your risk.
所以不管怎样 都是你的选择 So either way, um, it's your choice.
但这是考虑风险与回报的关系的方式 以及需要承担的财务风险 But that is the way to think in at risk in relation to reward, and what it's going to take, the financial risk.
但是 增持 持有大量头寸 你必须增持 But again, overweight positions, taking big positions, then you've got to on that overweight.
超重的人 风险更大 On the overweight, you've got to be more risk.
对超重的人来说风险更大 You have to have your risk even tighter on the overweight.
问的也是A-R-E-S-A-R-E-S吗 是的 再一次 Is asking also about A-R-E-S-A-R-E-S? Yeah, again.
这是另一只股票 This is another one of these stocks.
同样 你会看到很多这些 这些 这些结构将会 嗯 它们将会被一般市场所驱动 And again, you're gonna see that a lot of these, these, these structures are gonna be, um, they're going to be driven by the general market as well.
当然 它们是普通市场的一部分 They are part of the general market, of course.
但是当你在指数的右边运行时 你会看到很多碱基在右边运行 But when you run up the right side in the indexes, you'll see a lot of bases that run up the right side.
这就是它可能会被引入歧途的地方 如果你想 你可能会把市场定义为 比如标普指数 And this is where it can get um, you can get led astray, if you will, where you might have the market as defined by, say, the S&P.
跑向右边 跑向新的高地 抓住头条 一切看起来都很好 Run straight up the right side, go right into new high grounds, capturing headlines, everything looks great.
与此同时 所有所有的股票都只是向右上涨 然后被压缩 Meanwhile, all the all the stocks did was just run up the right side and get compressed.
而现在他们很容易出现大幅回落 And now they're they're prone to a sharp pullback.
这些更大的基地右边还需要建 And still need to build this right side of these larger bases.
这可能需要几天 几周或几个月的时间 That could take days, weeks or months.
你开始过早地买进这些股票 现在你在各个地方都被阻止了 And you start going in there and buying these stocks prematurely, and now you're getting stopped out all over the place.
这就是其中一个名字 This is one of those names.
这并不意味着它不能再高了 它不能再起飞了 但它确实起飞了 It doesn't mean that this can't go higher and it can't take off, but it is.
它的右侧被压缩了 It has a compressed right side.
对于那些不理解时间压缩的人 你们可以去看我的第一本书 我解释了它 For those of you that don't understand time compression, you can go to my 1st book, I explain it.
你从右边一直往前跑 Um, you're running straight up the right side.
这仅仅意味着你的右侧还没有形成对称 It just simply means you haven't developed that symmetry on the right side.
这不仅仅是因为它看起来是这样的 人们看到了 这就是它成功的原因 Which isn't just because it looks that way, and people see that, and that's why it works.
因为这是供给和需求的足迹 你需要对供给进行一定程度的消化 It's because it's the footprints of supply and demand, where you have to go through a certain amount of digestion of the supply.
在基地的左侧 你困住了买家 On the left side the base, you have trapped buyers.
你让获利者从低处获利 You've got profit takers off the low.
当你在右边跑得太快 你就会碰到补给 When you run up that right side too quickly, you you're going to run into that supply.
这些卖家会聚集在一起 有些人得到了回报 有些人获得了利润 他们会考虑卖出 Those sellers are going to converge, where you have people getting even and people getting profitable, and they're going to look to sell.
这就产生了这个 And that's going to create that.
这就形成了右边 That's what creates that right side.
当它收紧时 这表明供应正在减少 供应正在下降 And as it tightens up, that gives you an indication that that supply is diminishing, that's coming that supply is coming down.
一旦你在右边变得非常安静 这意味着供应停止进入市场 And once you get very quiet on the right side, it means supplies stop coming to market.
这样就形成了阻力最小的线 And that creates the line of least resistance.
这要追溯到Jesselevermore在二十年代的工作 他是轴心点的先驱 也是对我这类工作产生主要影响的人之一 This goes all the way back to Jesse levermore's work in the twenties, who was the pioneer of pivot points and and really one of the main, uh, influences for me for this type of work.
好吧 你可以在书里做个标记 你说过有专业的交易员擅长获得明显的支持 All right, um, could either mark in your book, you talk about how there are professional traders who are expert at picking up obvious support
业余爱好者替换停站的水平 但这超出了你的书的范围 levels where amateurs replace their stops, but that is beyond the scope of your book.
你知道有什么书会在文字上涵盖这个概念吗 Do you know of any books that would cover this notion in word?
做了吗 不 我不喜欢 我建议你完全远离这些想法 Did? No, I-I don't. And I would recommend you completely stay away from those ideas.
在那些偏执和阴谋论中 他们并没有 他们没有要除掉你 And in that paranoia and those conspiracy theories, um, there's not, they're not picking you off.
这并不是说他们做了什么邪恶的事情 这是非法的事情 甚至是系统中的漏洞 他们可以合法地剥削你 This isn't like they're doing something sinister and there's this illegal thing, or even a flaw in the system that they can legally rip you off.
事实并非如此 That that is not what's happening.
当你接近一个水平 一个技术水平 或者接近做市商账面上的止损点时 他们有一定的回旋余地他们只需要以任意价格买入一定数量的股票 What what's happening is is that when you get close to a level, a technical level, or you get close to that stop that's on the books with the market maker, they have a certain amount of leeway that they only have to honor a certain number of shares at any one price.
1000股的价格是40 而股票交易价格是4010 他们一次可以让价格下降100股 So you have a thousand shares at 40 and the stocks traded at 4010, they can bring that down a hundred shares at a time.
他们可以 他们可以抢到那些供给 And they can, they can grab that supply.
他们会来取货的 好吗 They can pick up your supply, okay?
他们可以买 从你那里买股票 嗯 他们还有一点回旋的空间 And they can buy that, buy that stock from you, um, and, and they have a little bit of wiggle room in there.
这只是 你知道 这只是供给需求 And that's just, you know, that's just supplied demand.
呃 如果你有一个更重的交易名称 你交易的是苹果之类的 这是不太可能发生的 Uh. If you have A-A much, uh, um, heavier traded name, you're trading Apple or something, that's not likely to happen.
嗯 当然 你知道 有一些算法被写入做市商的程序中 嗯 当他们在看 你知道 当他们收到指令时 他们会看 你知道 在回调时买入股票 Um, certainly, you know, there's algorithms that are written into the market makers programs that, um, when they're looking, you know, when they get by orders, they're gonna look to, you know, pick up stock on a pullback.
所以如果你的止损点接近交易价格 是的 他们可能会把股票降下来 稍微降一点 然后买进 但就是这样 And so if you've got your stop close to the price that it's trading, yes, they might take the stock down, ticket down a bit and grab that, but that's that.
如果供给 如果需求存在 你就不会被阻止 If the, if the supply, if the uh demand, was there, you wouldn't be getting stopped out.
这对你不重要 如果达到你的价格 你就出局了 It doesn't matter to you. If it hits your price, you're out.
如果股价坚挺 这种情况就不会发生 If the stock was strong, that wouldn't happen.
事实上 你被炒鱿鱼了 你知道 这意味着这只股票没有那么强势 你应该被炒鱿鱼 So that just the fact that you're getting picked off like that, you know, it means that the stock isn't that strong and you should be getting picked off.
所以你 这对你来说不重要 So you it doesn't matter to you.
数学就是你的数学你在5%8%的范围内停下 这就是你要承担的风险 The math is the math you you're you're stopping out at 5 %, 8 %, whatever it is, that's the amount of risk that you're taking.
好吧 你的时机 也许如果你被这样炒了 你的时机不对 或者市场在那个点不合适 或者你在分析 你没有从一个合理的入市点买入 All right? Your timing. Maybe if you're getting picked off like that, your timing is off, or the markets just not right at that point, or you're analysis, you're not buying from a sound entry point.
然后继续努力 不要试图找出阴谋论 因为首先 你不会解决它 其次 你还不会围绕它进行交易 That's and work on that. Don't work on trying to figure out the conspiracy theory, because 1st of all, you're not going to fix it, and 2nd of all, you're not going to trade around it yet.
你想围绕它进行交易 You want to trade around it.
把你的时间记录下来 然后成为给这些 这些 这些爆发计时的专家 Get your timing down and and become an expert at timing these, these, uh, these breakouts.
不过 你有时还是会犯错 市场会出现回调 你有时还是会被炒鱿鱼 And still, you're going to get it wrong at times, the market's going to pull into a correction, and you're still going to get picked off at times.
这只是生意的一部分 It's just part of the business.
但从长远来看 这有什么不同吗 But does that make a any difference in the long term?
绝对不是 绝对不是 如果你的股票卖得很好 股价上涨怎么办 Absolutely not. Absolutely not. What about the times you get good fills and the stock takes off?
你知道 如果如果一切顺利 那么做市商就会跟你对垒 You know, what about what about when things work out perfectly, then the market makers against you?
那他们就是你的朋友 对吧 当你的股票上涨时 他们买进并为他们的空仓做掩护时 这一切都将得到洗白 Then they're your friend? Right? When they're in there buying and scrambling the cover for their shorts as your stock runs up, that's all going to come out in the wash.
詹姆斯问的是 在任何情况下 你都可以交易一个突破差价吗 James is asking if there are any circumstances in which you trade a breakaway gap?
我很少交易差价 I very seldom ever trade a gap.
我个人唯一一次交易差额是 如果他们从一个基地出来 同性恋股票从一个基地出来 The only time that I personally trade gaps is that if they're coming out of a base, gay the stock is coming out of a base.
迪克体育用品公司就是一个很好的例子 Dick Sporting Goods was a perfect example.
我不知道 我能追溯到那么远吗 I don't know, can I go back that far?
这里 让我看看能不能回到迪克 And here, let me see if I can go back to Dick.
如果我没记错的话 我可以给你们看看甲板 I'll show you decks here, if my memory serves me.
很久以前我在这里买了几副牌 2003年的时候 我想应该是四副吧 I bought decks back here so long time ago, back in 2003, or four, I believe, yeah.
你可以在这里看到 So you can see right here.
所以我就在这买了迪克斯 就在这 4月1日 在欧赞 So I bought Dicks right here on this day, right here, was on the Ozan, april 1.
不正确的 那就这样吧 愚人节 就像我们这周一样 Not right? There you go. April Fools, just like we are this week.
嗯 2003 但你会发现 她总是有一点点差距 Um and 2003. You'll see, though, she always has a little tiny bit of a gap.
你看 这个差距不足以让这支股票扩展 并从这样一个现象 完美地形成了一个主要的基础 我想拥有这个名字 See, that gap wasn't enough to put this The stock extended, and was coming out of such a phenomenal perfectly formed a primary base that I wanted to own this name.
所以当它超过这个时 当然 当时的价格更高 So when it got above this, uh, at the time, of course, the price was higher.
这是经过分割调整的 当它超过5度时 78度 你知道 那是开始的时间 This is adjusted for splits. When it got above the five, 78, you know, that was go time.
但并不是船长把它拉长了 But it wasn't that captain put it extended.
我来做一下 有时在收益报告中 你会得到一份橙色的报告 股票是从这样的基数中出来的 它会在收益报告中出现缺口 So I'll do that. Sometimes on an earnings report, you get an orange report, the stock's coming out of a base like this, and it gaps up on the earnings report.
如果只有百分之一左右的开口 我可以直接进去咬 或者我就咬 If it's only gaping up a percent or so, right on the open I can go right in there and bite, or I will.
有时 这只股票就在这里 就在这里 他们提高了指导 At times, this stock right here, on this gap, right here, they raised guidance.
所以这是 这是一个你必须摆脱的好迹象 So this was, this was a good sign you had to shake out.
你看 它晃出了低处 然后又立刻扯了回来 然后又完美地收紧了 You see, it shook out the low and then came ripping back right away, and then tightened up perfectly.
而真正的关键在于这个手柄阶段 And the real key to this was in this handle phase here.
看看这个完美的VCP 对吧 Look at this perfect VCP Right?
你有这里的毛 You got the fur you got right here.
让我向你们展示两件事 Let me show you two things.
1 在这里 它们在这里 对吧 One, here, they come down here, right?
你在收紧 直到你最后看 有多紧 对吧 And you're tightening up until you finally get Look how tight that is, right?
完美的 VCP四次宫缩 如果你愿意 呃 从低谷中摆脱出来 Perfect. VCP Four contractions, if you will, um, a shake out off the low.
从根本上说 你得到了一些好消息 而且对这个消息做出了良好的回应 You got some good news here, fundamentally, and a good response to the news.
这才是真正的关键 当它像这样收紧的时候 就在这个区域 就在这里 SMP 市场创造了一个新的低点 这是它成为一个领导者的关键因为它在调整期间保持得很好 And here's the real key. When this was tightening up like this, right in this area, right here, the SMP, the market made a new low, and that was the key to this being a leader that was about to blast off because it was holding up so well during a correction.
他问的五个问题是 什么情况更常见你主动卖出一只亏损的股票是因为违规 还是只是触发了止损点 And the five question he asked is, what happens more often you actively sell a losing stock due to violations, or just being, uh triggering the stoplist?
更常见的情况是停止被触发 More often a stop gets triggered.
让我们看看胜利者询问了解仓位大小 一个与精确的风险回报相结合的增量敞口 以及长期显示的条目 产生良好的结果 Let's see victors asking the understands position sizing, an incremental exposure combined with precise risk reward, and entries showed in long run, generate good results.
如果仓位规模如此重要 我们如何在DARM分析中创建统计数据 或将其纳入我们的传播分析中 If position sizing so important, how can we create stats on DARM analysis to or into our spreading analysis regarding it?
嗯 好吧 所以我发现仓位规模是很重要的从管理你的风险的角度来看 不要给自己一个大的减持 Um. Okay. So what I've found is that position sizing is important from a standpoint of managing your risk and not giving yourself a big drawdown.
但对于最终的表演 你会它会被洗出来 But for ultimate performance, you're it's gonna come out in the wash.
在 马克 中 我不确定你们是否做过 And in Mark, I'm not sure if you've done any.
我认为你会跟踪你的结果 I think you you track your results.
我想根据仓位大小调整一下 I think adjust it for position size.
我不 所以我发现 你知道 你可以 你可以回头说 好吧 我做大的仓位 当我做错的时候 我做小的仓位 当我做对的时候 I do not. So what I found was is that, you know, you could, you could go back and say, okay, well, I'm taking big positions, uh, when I'm wrong, in small positions when I'm right.
但我发现 在100笔交易 200笔交易 500笔交易之后 它就像是洗白了一样 But what I found is it sort of comes out in the wash after, you know, a hundred trades, 200 trades, 500 trades.
有时候你会在错误的时候选择小头寸 在正确的时候选择大头寸 这就像是自己撒网一样 There's times where you take small positions when you're wrong and big positions when you're right, and it sort of nets itself out.
所以我追踪了好几年 我从来没有看到一个一致的 巨大的差异 So I track that for a number of years, and I never could see a consistent, big difference.
嗯 所以我试着从风险词汇的角度来看待每只股票 Um. So I try to look at each stock just from a risky word standpoint.
头寸规模就变成了一种 增量风险管理成为风险管理的一部分 让自己处于 有太多破产风险的位置 或者让自己陷入现金周转的困境 The position sizing just becomes a, uh, you know, an incremental risk management to a part of the risk management of not getting myself, putting myself in a position to have, you know, too much risk of ruin, or getting myself in a hole coming out of cash.
所以我没有 我没有那样追踪它 So I don't, I don't track it that way.
我不太了解你 Um, I don't know more about you.
你是否发现在调整职位规模 或者或者你对自己的表现 甚至在职位分析中有很大的不同 Have you seen a big difference in adjusting for position size, or or your on your performance, or even in the post analysis?
哦 是的 我总是这样做 调整仓位大小 所以不能 你知道 我一直在另一个阵营 所以我不能评论 你知道 相反的 Oh yeah, I've always done it, adjusted for position size, so couldn't, you know, I've sort of always been to the other camp, so I couldn't comment on on, you know, the opposite.
我只是 你知道 我会说 当你在这方面做得很好 我会有信心它会有好的结果 对吗 I just, you know, I would say, when you get good at this, I would be confident it comes out in the wash, right?
一个全新的交易员 我觉得他会增持仓位 A brand new trader. I think he's gonna trade a bigger position size.
我的意思是 我听过很多人说 嗯 我做了这个小小的加法 然后或者它可以是两者兼而有之 I mean, I've heard from so many people saying, well, I had this small addition and then or or it can be both.
有些人实际上交易仓位越大越好 因为 我知道一个标记 我自己就是这样 Some people actually trade bigger position sizes better because, you know, and, and I know a mark, and myself would be that way.
他们真正关注的是 你知道 有点像扑克游戏的标志 你输了不止一场两局 然后你在大的比赛中 你知道 人们有时会在一个小的位置 然后他们他们不跟随停止 他们做各种愚蠢的事情 They're really watching it where, you know, sort of your pokernalogy mark, where you lose more than one two game, then you do in the big game, you know, where guys sometimes they take a small position, and then they they don't follow a stop, and they do all kinds of dumb stuff.
所以 我并没有明确的观点 So, um, I-I don't have a firm view.
我会 我会说 追踪它 然后可能会用两种方式研究它 I would, I would say, track it and then and then potentially study it both ways.
但让我看最后一件事 然后我们就结束了 But let me see one last thing, and then we're going to wrap this up.
我发现 我经常会投资表现不太好的股票 I find that, um, I will very often be in the stocks that don't perform as well.
我将持有大量头寸 Um I will I will have big positions.
而那些股价飞涨的股票 通常是小盘股 And and the stocks that are the rip, the ripping roaring of stocks, and usually the the smaller cap names.
我可能只是因为流动性和风险而持有较小的头寸 Um, I may have smaller positions simply because of liquidity and because of of risk.
所以 举个例子 如果我有COSTCO 你知道 我知道我可以持有一个大的头寸 So, for instance, if, you know, if I have COSTCO, for instance, you know, I know I can take a big position.
因为它有流动性 和 Because it's got liquidity. And
此外 这些价格较高的股票 或流动性更强的股票 交易可能会更紧张 also these higher price stocks, or these more liquid names, might trade a tighter.
然后如果我在股票交易中遇到一个小公司的情况 每天一百五万股 现在我必须持有一个小得多的仓位 但你知道 它可能有更多的上涨潜力 因为它是一个较小的中型股 没有被广泛关注 And then if I get into a situation where it's a small name in stock trades, hundred and 50000 shares a day, well, now I've got to take a much smaller position, but that could be something that, you know, has much more upside potential, because it's a smaller midcap named, not followed very wide widely.
但是没关系 没关系 再说一遍 我很担心风险 But that's okay. That's okay because, um, again, I'm concerned with the risk side.
奖励方面会自行解决 The reward side's going to take care of itself.
就像我说的 它会分布 And like I said, that's going to distribute.
你知道 有时候你会 你会在正确的地方大 在错误的地方小 反之亦然 You know, sometimes you'll be, you'll be big in the right place and small in the wrong place, in vice versa.
久而久之就会洗出来的 It's gonna come out in the wash over time.
但是如果你想去追踪 看看你的倾向是什么样的 我说倾向可能不是一件坏事 But if you wanna go and track that to see what your tendencies are like, I said that tendency may not be a bad thing.
你知道吗 如果你有喝得酩酊大醉的倾向那就是这个原因 You know, if your tendency is to go heavy in the it's a result of that.
你会在流动性更强的股票上投入大量资金 You're going heavy in the stocks that are the more liquid names.
这很好 因为现在你 你知道 你要重仓 你要持有更大的仓位 你要有流动性 That's fine, because now you're, you know, you're going heavy where you're taking the bigger positions, where you've got the liquidity.
当然 这不是一个大问题如果你要交易100500把椅子 或者1000把椅子 And this, of course, isn't going to be a big concern if you're trading a hundred 500 chairs, or maybe a thousand chairs.
但是当你几万年的时间开始交易时 这 这 这将会是一个更大的问题 But when you start trading tens of thousand years, this, this, this is going to be a more of an issue.
我们再回答最后一个问题 然后我们就结束了 So let's take one last question, and then we're going to wrap it up.
Greg只是问 当你有一个mBP的候选 你是否在你的规则中改变了什么具体的东西来保持它更长时间 Greg is just asking, when you have an m BP candidate, is there anything specific you change in your rules to hold it longer?
S-W-C-H似乎需要根据今天的关闭情况制定标准 S-W-C-H looks like it could need the criteria depending on how it closes today.
我想知道你是否可以调整一下你的停止水平 给他更多的空间 所以w-c-h-s-w-c-s 不好意思 w-w-s-w-w-c-h-c-h I'm wondering if you would make an adjustment with your stop level to give him more room, so that W-C-H-S-W-O, I'm sorry, W-W-C-S, no, S-W-S-W-C-H-C-H.
他想知道你是否会调整你的止损位给他更多的空间 或者只是提高你的上行预期 并保持在你通常会获利的位置 So wait so you can meet the criteria today, depending on how to close is And he's wondering if you would make an adjustment with your stop level to give him more room, or simply raise your expectations on the upside and hold it past where you would normally be taking profit.
好了 他说的是MV我们称之为M-V-P指标 也就是大卫·拜恩斯 如果你愿意的话 Okay, so what what he's talking about is the MV to what we've termed the M-V-P indicator, which is David byans uh Ants, if you will.
当你有一定数量的数据在我的书中解释过 把Trail想成冠军当你有一定数量的上升和下降的天数 我想是 15天中的12天 When you have a certain number of dasis is explained in my book, thinking Trail like a champion when you have a certain number of days up versus down days, it's, I think, twelve out of 15 days, um.
在这段时间里 这些股票的交易量不断增加 And you've got an increasing volume over that time those stocks.
大卫发现这些迹象 是机构的王子 你知道 进入市场 真正支持股票 What David found is that's that those are the signs, are the the the prince of institutions, you know, getting in there and really supporting that stock.
这显示了很大的力量 It shows a lot of strength.
谷歌 在首次公开募股的时候 就有这些特点 Google, uh, when it came out of its IPO base, had had those characteristics.
所以问题是 我们对待它们有什么不同吗 So the question is is, do we treat them any differently?
因为你得到了那个 Because you get that that power.
记住 大卫也指出过 至少他在上几个交易大师程序中指出过 这并不意味着你一定要买股票 Now, remember, um, david also pointed out, at least he pointed out in the in the last couple of master trader programs, that doesn't necessarily mean that you buy that stock.
一旦它这样做了 因为你可能会喜欢这里的高汤 Uh, once it does that, because you could like this stock here.
这是扩展 我实际上在考虑这个 如果你还记得 这是在biler上 我在这里考虑 从这个 这个 这个手柄阶段 如果你愿意 This is extended. I was actually considering this, if you remember, this was on biler, and I was considering it right here, coming out of this, this, uh, this handle phase, if you will.
我只是想看它再紧一点 它做到了 它就这样出来了 I just wanted to see it tighten up a little bit more, and it did, and it just came right out.
所以我错过了 我没在意 但你得好好抖抖 So I missed it. I let it go by, but you had to the nice shake out.
它被拉了回来 拉到了这里 It came ripping back, pulled back here.
我的意思是 到目前为止 它的行为是行为 完美的行为 完美的行为 但它是延伸的 I mean, so far, its act is acted, just perfect, acting perfect, but it is extended.
现在 我不会在这里买它 但这可能是一个你可以等待另一个基地 或者撤回 嗯 你知道 你可能想要加入的各种方式 Now, I would not buy it here, but this could be one that you could maybe wait for another base, or pull back, um, you know, various ways that you might want to get on board.
问题是你是否会用不同的方法对待它 The question of if you're going to treat it any differently.
嗯 我仍然会寻找违规行为 你知道 这是主要的事情 Um, I would still look for violations, you know, that that would be the main thing.
如果有重大违规 如果不正常 那我就会减少或者卖掉 If there's major violations, if it's not acting right, then again, you know, I-I would cut back or sell.
但是一旦你达到这样的程度 你很容易就会有一些急剧的回落 这看起来很可怕 你可能会得到一个 嗯 你知道 一些沉重的下跌 But once you get extent like this, you could very easily get some sharp pull back, and it would look scary and and you might get a, um, you know, some heavy volume on that that downside.
但是 但是 再说一遍 你必须找出违规的地方 But, but again, that, uh, you have to look for the violations.
我还是会这么做的 And I would play it exactly the same.
我个人是不会买这样的股票的 I personally am not going to buy a stock extended like this.
我这太冒险了 即使它显示出那种力量 嗯 我也会等着 然后从一个基地买它 I there's too much risk. Even if it shows that kind of power, um, I'm gonna wait and try to buy it, uh, from a base.
所以 所以 再一次 你知道 这不是嗯 So, so, again, you know, this isn't uh um.
我认为 你知道 实际上 我认为你问的问题 一个更好的说法是 假设你从这个基地买了它 然后它符合那个标准 I think I'd be more And I think, you know, actually, I think the the question that you're asking, a better way to put it, would be, let's say you bought it out of this base and then it met that criteria.
也许这就是你赞美的方式 这就是我想说的 Maybe that's how you're praising. That's what I want to say.
这就是我想说的 马克 That's what I was going to say, mark.
这就是为什么我认为你的50天试用期很好 This is why I think that your 50 day trail rules a good one.
或者我也会卖掉一部分作为你的线索 对吧 Or I would sell a piece and use that as your, as your trail, right?
是的 也许你是在这里买的 Yes, so, you know, maybe you bought it here.
现在它满足这个条件了 现在 我们会用不同的方式对待它 而不是把它卖给实力吗 Now it meets that criteria. Now, are we going to treat it any differently, as opposed to selling into the strength?
我想说 是的 然后 你知道 如果你得到了 你满足了你想要小心的标准 当然唱整个位置的力量 Um, I would say, yeah. Then, you know, if you get that, you meet that criteria you want to be careful about, certainly sung the whole position into strength.
就像一个标记说的 你可能想翻到50分 And as as a mark just said, you may want to flip over to a 50
日线 所以现在你要等收盘跌破50 或者 day trail, so now you wait for a close below the 50, or
你可以使用任何移动平均线 you could use whatever a moving average.
但是 50天的下跌 一个股票的低点 在显示领导的特点 可以持有一个股票很长一段时间 But the 50 day um, coming off, the lows of the bare market of a of a stock, at showing leadership characteristics, could could hold a stock for a long period of time.
其中一些领涨股会有4次500%甚至更多的波动 而且不会收在50日以下 Some of these leaders go for four 500% moves or even more, and don't close below the 50 day.
所以在这一点上 你知道 50天很可能会给它足够的空间来波动 并能够穿过那些极背 So at that point, you know, and the 50 day would most likely give it enough room to to fluctuate and be able to go through those pole backs.
但我 你知道的 我喜欢听到现金的铃声 我讨厌风险 Um, but I, you know, I love to hear the cash freshes or ring, and I hate risk.
所以 你知道 这种情况下 我 你知道 可能会卖掉一些然后剩下的 做更大的动作 So, you know, this situation, I'd, you know, probably sell some of it and then with the rest of it, play it for a bigger move.
风险对于 是的 我这就是我要说的 你 你 你创造了一个混合 因为如果你看 你知道 我们几乎是 3150 Risk for, yeah, I that's what I was gonna say, you, you, you create a blend, because if you look, you know, we're almost, what, 3150.
好吧 我们还是回到50吧 Well, even we'll pull back to the 50.
这是一个 这是一个 这是一个很大的回调 That's a, that's a, that's a good size pullback.
所以你想要平滑你的权益曲线的方式是出售一部分 并试图做到两全其美 So the way you're going to smoothen your equity curvace by selling a piece and trying to have the best of both worlds, exactly.
现在 这只股票表现非常好 Now, this stock is acting really good.
这就是我想拥有的 And this was that one that I wanted to own.
但是 它再次向你展示 你知道 我的纪律 我真的 你知道 在这些入口点上很有纪律 But again, it just goes to show you, again, you know, my discipline, that I'm really, you know, quite disciplined in in those entry points.
如果他们不完全符合标准 不 我就让他们过去 And if they don't meet the criteria perfectly, no, I just, I just let em go by.
即使是股票 你知道 我有胃口 我真的 你知道 感觉我想用这个名字 Even stocks that I've got, you know, got an appetite for, I really, you know, feel like I want to be in this name.
它表现得很好 表现出了领导特质 It's acting great, and it's showing leadership characteristics.
我不会 我不会让它让我变得草率 I'm not, I'm not going to allow that to let me get sloppy.
这将以错过一些优秀的股票为代价 And it's going to be at the expense of missing some great stocks at times.
但另一方面 如果我违反了纪律 你知道的 也会给我带来很多问题 But the the flip side is, if I break that discipline, um, you know, it's gonna cause me a lot of problems too.
因为再说一遍 如果你 如果你 如果你违反纪律 你的名字就归你了 好吗 Because again, if you, if you, if you break the discipline, you're in the name, okay?
你有风险 如果你不违反纪律 你就会多发性硬化 And you've got risk. If you don't break the discipline, you MS.
你还是没有冒任何风险 it, you're still not risking anything.
你可能会错过机会 但你不会损失任何钱 You you may MS. the opportunity, but you're not going to lose any money.
这就是关键 对我来说 关键是没有得到 就没有失去 And that's the key. The key for me is that nothing gain, nothing lost.
但如果我在某个时候违反了纪律 风险就会冒出来 我就会输 我就会我就会受到伤害 But if I break my discipline at some point, that risk is going to rear its head, and I'm going to lose and I'm and it's going to hurt me.
如果我开始习惯性地这样做 那我的 我的系统就崩溃了 So and if if I habitually start doing that, you know, then my, my systems out out the window.
我已经没有什么规矩了 I don't have a system any more.
好了 我希望这对你有帮助 All right, I hope this has been helpful.
我想我们 对不起 去做吧 I think we, I'm sorry. Go ahead.
是的 我刚想说 被困在那里的标记 Yeah. I was just going to say, so the trapped up there mark.
今天我们会在这里回放肘部的比赛 Today we'll have the replay of Elbow here in a few moments.
大家一如既往地在平台上发帖 Guys posted on the platform as always.
如果我们这周没有回答你的问题 那就留到下周吧 If we didn't get to your question this week, try to save it for next week.
我们会尽量多找几个 We'll get to as many as we can.
他们将在本周余下的时间里收看直播 了解马克·乌本周的最新消息 And they tuned to the live stream for the remainder of the week for any updates from Mark Uh throughout the week.
好了 保重 伙计们 谢谢 Okay, take care, guys. Thanks.