我想我们可以出发了 如果你准备好了 I think we're ready to go, right if you are.
欢迎大家来到第四个武器 终极交易 So welcome everybody to the 4th weaponr in, the ultimate trading
引导武器我们的系列 我们非常高兴你们能来到这里 这将是一个非常非常好的讲座 深入探讨风险管理和头寸管理 并回答很多问题 guide weapon our series. We're super excited to have you guys here with us, and this is going to be a really, really good one, diving deep into both risk management as well as position management, and answering a lot of questions that
人 谢谢大家的收看 people have. So think you guys all for tuning in.
一定要坚持到最后 Make sure stick around until the end.
我们为你们准备了很多东西 We've got a lot in store for you guys.
清单 指导方针 所有这些 呃 Checklist, guidelines, all of that. Uh?
说到这里 我想我要给你们讲一下 让我们继续深入 So with that, right, I think I'll hit it over you, and let's go ahead and divered in.
是的 到今天为止 我们将讨论 你知道 我们已经讨论了几个武器 第一个是交易基础 我们讨论了价格行为 Yeah. So to today, we will discuss, you know, we've been through a couple of weaponars, the 1st one being just the trading foundation, where we covered price action.
然后 我们会深入研究你在市场中拥有哪些优势以及心态如何发挥重要作用 Uh, then we, you know, kind of dive deep into what edges you could have in the markets with the and how mindset plays a big role.
我的心态惹恼了不少人 And I annoyed quite a few people there with mindset.
然后我们在第三节课开始准备和进场战术 然后今天是第四节课 Then we got into set ups and entry tactics in our 3rd, and then today's our 4th.
前三个都在youtube上 如果你喜欢Richard说的 So the 1st three are on youtube, if you like Richard said.
所以你们可以去那里观看 并确保与任何对市场感兴趣的人分享 他们肯定会从中受益 So you guys can go watch em there and make sure you share those with you know, anybody that would be interested in the market would definitely benefit.
这是关于我们的 我想我们已经在第一个3个视频的6小时以北了 That's about us. I think we're already, what north of 6 h of a video on the 1st Three Uh.
今天的主题是风险 规则和风险管理 And today is about risk and rules and risk management.
在我们开始之前 我在这里引用一句 加里·维特的话 做每个人都想做的工作 So before we get started, I put in a quote here today, uh, by Gary vit's as Do the work everyone wants to be for.
我没有看到这张幻灯片的更新 就像你知道的 它可能被冻结了 我们开始 I'm not seeing this slide update, just like you know, it might be frozen theres There we go.
我把它贴出来了 然后我忘了 I had it posted, and I forgot.
在我们开始之前 我想引用一下Garyv的一句话 做工作 So before we get started, I just have a quick quote from Gary v which says, do the work.
每个人都想成功 但没有人愿意去做工作 Everyone wants to be successful, but nobody wants to do the work.
所以今天 你知道 我们所有的其他网络开发者 都坚持要求你们 你知道 拿出精力 实际实施一些你看到的东西 这样你就可以从第一阶段进入第二阶段 从第二阶段进入第三阶段 无论你在你的旅程中处于什么位置 So today, and you know, all these other webners that we have, were insisting that you guys, you know, bring the energy and actually implement some of these things that you see, so that you could move from stage one to two, two to three, wherever you may be in your journey.
所以 在一天结束的时候 你必须完成这项工作 So you have, at the end of the day, it's upon you to do the work.
我们可以坐在这里聊上几个小时 试着帮助你们 但这要取决于你和你自己 以及你如何接受并内化我们试图合成的所有知识 We could sit here and talk for hours, try to help you guys, but it's going to come down to you and yourself, and how you take that and internalize all the knowledge that we're trying to synthesize from.
你知道 这五个大师班 是我们已经完成的四个大师班 You know, the the five master classes, are four master classes that we've done.
理查德森的数百次采访是贸易线团队与罗斯和其他人的全部经验 你知道 给年轻的E-G武器 The hundreds of interviews that richardson are the whole experience of the Trade Line team with Ross and everybody the, you know, bringing to the youth E-G weaponars.
所以接下来是我们的承诺 我们一直都有 呃 开始这些州长 So next it is our pledge that we always have, uh, to begin these governors.
它基本上是说 你知道 你要投入工作 你要做日常工作 通过知识进行研究 It basically says, you know, you'll put in the work, you'll do the routines, conduct the studies through the knowledge.
我们不会给你捷径 我们给了你一个平台和框架让你改进 We're not giving you shortcuts. We're giving you a platform and a framework for you to improve.
如果你带着这些东西 我们肯定会觉得你的交易会有很大的进步 你知道 从日间交易到仓位交易的转变 And if you take some of these uh things with you, uh, we We definitely feel that you will see big strides in your trading, be of you know, swing to from all the way from day trading to position trading.
所有这些概念都适用于你的时间框架 Um, all of these concepts apply regardless of your time frame.
今天的议程是我们将讨论损失 The agenda today is we will be talking about losses.
你们很多人都知道 风险管理是关于损失的 我们如何将损失控制在较小的范围内 And much of you know, risk management is about losses, how how we keep them small?
成功的交易者是如何做到的 How do we, how do successful traders do it?
给我1秒 成功的交易者是如何做到的 Just give me 1 s. How do successful traders do it?
然后 我们会讲到 我们如何设置止损我们在上次网络研讨会的入场策略中谈到的一些设置 我们如何将止损向上移动 And then, uh, we'll get into how to, how do we set up stop losses on some of the setups that we spoke about in the entry tactics in the last webonar, how do we move stops up?
你知道 从第一阶段到第二阶段 是非常不同的 And, you know, for stage one to stage two, it's very different.
当我们进入第三阶段时 这对每个人来说都是非常独特的 And when we get to stage three, it's very, very unique to each individual.
然后我们用细胞规则来结束 Then we'll finish it off with cell rules um.
每一点都要花点时间来讲解 And each of these points will take quite a bit of time to get into.
理查德 如果你想要这个 可以 So Richard, if you want to take this one, yeah.
这些都是一些常见的问题 这些年来 我看到很多交易员在培训 私下访问和大师课上问过这些问题 So these are just kind of common questions that I've seen a lot of traders ask over the years in trail and private access, during master classes.
我该在哪儿停车 You know, where do I put my stop?
我如何管理风险 我该如何处理间歇期 How do I manage risk? How do I handle gap downs?
我的仓位大小应该是多少 What should my position sizing be?
何时逢高卖出 正如我们今天要讲的 这些话题有很多细微差别 也有很多答案 但我们会尽力提供一些非常具体的指导方针和框架 你可以用它们来回答这些问题 When to sell into strength? Um As we'll cover today, there's a lot of nuance um regarding these topics and a lot of answers, but we'll do our best to provide some really concrete guidelines and frameworks that you can use to to answer these questions.
这在很大程度上取决于你知道 我们又回到了这个问题 你在你的交易旅程中处于什么位置 And a lot of it does depend You know, we've come back to the idea of, where are you in your trading journey?
你是刚开始的第一阶段叛徒吗 Are you a stage one traitor, just starting?
第二阶段 开始有感觉了吗 Stage two, starting to get a feel of it?
第三阶段 你是否真的专注于表现 Stage three, are you actually focused on performance at that point?
这些问题的答案在您的旅程中会有所不同 但您应该采取具体步骤来回答这些问题 并且将在今天的武器中提供一些很好的起始框架 The answers to these questions will vary along your journey, but there are concrete steps that you should take to answer these, and and will provide some great starting frameworks today in today's weapon are.
现在约翰和他在聊天 So John and the chat right now.
你今天还有什么关键问题想让我们回答吗 Any other key questions that you'd like us to answer today?
我在之前的武器中见过很多这样的问题 但我们一定要确保我们输入了尽可能多的问题 Uh, I've seen a lot of these in the previous weapon ours, but we definitely want to make sure we're entering as many of your questions as possible.
所以 嗯 是的 说到这里 我想下一句 So, uh, yeah. With that, I think the next line, yeah.
所以我想从第一节开始 So I-I wanted to kick off this 1st section with
买一只股票却不知道什么时候或者为什么应该卖出 就像买一辆没有刹车的汽车 或者坐一艘没有保护灯的船 或者上飞行课只教你如何起飞 而不教你如何降落 a quote from the legend William Onel Buying a stock without knowing when or why you should sell it is like buying a car with no brakes, or being in a boat with no light preservers, or taking flying lessons that teach you how to take off, but not how to land.
基本上 如果你没有管理风险 你就没有 Basically, if you're not manging risk, you're not
接近交易的正确方式 你没有考虑到不利的一面 approaching trading the right way. You're not thinking about the downside.
你只想赚到100%的钱 让你的钱翻倍 翻三倍 You're only thinking about making 100 %, doubling your money, tripling your money.
你能把钱或其他东西带来吗 Could you bring your money or whatever?
这是不现实的交易 你总是想要限制自己的缺点 即使你发现了一个很好的机会 你认为有很大的潜力 And that's not realistic trading. And you always want to be thinking about capping your downside, even when you find a great opportunity that you think has a lot of potential.
因为我们总想做最坏的打算 Uh, because we always want to be prepared for the worst.
挖掘我们的缺点实际上是让我们在很多很多的市场周期中 在几十年的时间里 保持在游戏中 并使我们的账户复合 And tapping our downside is actually what allows us to stay in the game over many, many market cycles, over decades, and compound our accounts.
把你的钱翻三倍是没有用的 It's no good to double triple your money.
嗯 你知道 在2020年这样的一年里 没有真正考虑风险管理 一切都很容易 一切都在运作 只要你买了 一切都上涨了20%到30% Uh, you know, not really think about risk management in a in a year like 2020, where everything's easy, everything's working, everything goes up 20 30% as soon as you buy it.
嗯 但你知道 当下行周期到来的时候 当2022年到来的时候 你会把所有的钱都拿回来 然后再拿回来一些 Um? But you know, when that down cycle hits, when 2022 hits, you give it all back, and then some.
所以风险管理 卖出规则 这是比赚大钱更重要的一部分 So risk management, sell rules. It's an even more important part of the equation than making the big money.
所以你必须学会如何保持你的损失最小 以及在趋势结束时退出 So you have to learn how to keep your loss as small um as well as get out when the trend ends.
这就是我们今天要讨论的内容 And that's what we'll be talking about in today's session.
好了 这是另一张幻灯片来强调这一点 All right, so here's another slide to kind of emphasize this point.
你们可能见过类似右边的表格 You guys have probably seen similar tables to the one on the right.
基本上 我们有一列是损失的百分比 然后在右边 右边的一列是损失的百分比 你需要回到你原来的地方 才能恢复收支平衡 Basically, we've got a column that's a percentage loss, and then on the right hand side, the right column is from that loss, what is the percentage gain that you need to get back to, just where you were, to just get back to break even.
你可以看到 在10%以下 这几乎是一个相等的关系 And you can see that, you know, under 10 %, it's pretty much an equal of relationship.
你需要一个人一个点 零1%的收益来赚回1% You need a one person one point, zero 1% gain to make back a 1 %.
在5%的情况下 你需要获得5 26%的收益才能挽回5%的损失 Laws at 5 %, you need a 5.26% gained to get back a 5% loss.
但是很快地 如果你让损失变得太大 在这一点上 我们考虑的是个人头寸 如果你让损失变得太大 你需要的收益是回到收支平衡 只是因为一个不可逾越的障碍 你知道 股票通常不会 你知道 很容易翻倍 But very quickly, if you let losses get too big, at this point, we're kind of thinking in terms of individual positions, if you let losses get too big, the gain necessary to get back to break even, just because an insurmountable barrier, you know, there's not often that a stock is gonna, you know, double easily for you.
那么为什么在损失了50%之后还会发生这种情况呢 So why should you expect it to happen after a 50% loss?
或者 你知道 在股票下跌75%之后 不要指望轻易获得300%的回报 Or, you know, don't expect a 300% return easily after stock drop 75 %.
这些股票跌幅如此之大是有原因的 通常是因为它们分布不均 There's a reason that these stocks fall so hard, and often that's because they're under significant distribution.
需要很多时间 即使他们恢复了上升趋势 也需要很多时间 很多工作 Need a lot of time, and even if they do resume an up trend, it's gonna take a lot of time, a lot of work.
你最好限制你的损失 当你没有被人欺负的时候 And you're better off capping your loss when geometrically, you're not being worked against you.
你不需要赚多少钱就能弥补你的损失 You don't need much of a gain to get back the loss you have.
所以就这里的要点而言 损失对你不利 So in terms of the bullet points here, losses work against you.
巨大的损失是灾难性的 从这张表可以看出 Large losses are disastrous. As you can see from this table.
别做输不起的人 我想拉伊已经补充了这一点 Don't be a sore loser, I think Rye added in that bullet point.
嗯 你知道 接受小的损失 因为这是防止你遭受大损失的唯一方法 Um, you know, keep, you know, accept the small losses, because that's the only way to prevent yourself from taking large losses.
手动计算 从心理上巩固这个概念 And work the math manually to cement the concept psychologically.
所以我鼓励大家做一个类似于我在这里做的表格 So I'd really encourage everybody to make a table similar to the one I've done over here.
想想 你在训练生涯中所遭受的损失 Um, think about, you know, the losses that you've taken in your training career.
我相信很多人都有这样的例子 他们让a公司的股票跌得太快太快 然后 他们要么坚持下去 因为他们只是希望 或者 你知道 他们只是转移到了另一只股票上 I'm sure a lot of people have examples where they've let A-A stock drop too far too fast, and, you know, they either hung on because they're just hoping um, or, you know, they just kind of moved on to another stock.
但我相信每个人都有这样的例子 But I'm sure everybody has those examples.
但关键是要保持较小的损失 因为这需要更少的工作 更少的收益来恢复收支平衡 But the key thing is keep those losses small, because that requires a lot less work, a lot less gain to get back to break even.
然后 当你让这些损失像滚雪球一样变得非常大的时候 你要写些什么来补充这一点呢 Then when you let those losses kind of snowball and and become extremely big and write anything to add with this point?
是的 有几件事 嗯 一个是 你要确保你能拿出一个图表 比如说 Paypalsquare 然后说 是的 rocu 这些名字中的任何一个 嗯 你知道 从300美元涨到50美元 Yeah, so a few things. Um, one is, you make sure you can pull up a chart of, uh, let's say, essie Paypal square, and say that, yeah, rocu, any of these names that have, uh, you know, went from 300 to 50 bucks?
只要计算一下它们的百分比 你很快就会发现我们讨论的这个关系 在10%左右 它有点像一条线性线 10%的损失需要11% And just do the, do the percentage math on them, and you will quickly see that this relationship that we're talking about, where, you know, around 10 %, it's kind of like a linear a line, where 10% loss you need 11 %.
但超过10% 情况就会变得非常非常糟糕 非常非常快 But after 10 %, it gets really, really bad, really, really quickly.
我们刚才提到的股票 它们已经跌了一半 从最高点跌了200美元 And the stocks that we just mentioned, they've, they've halfed and half, you know, they've gone down, you know, 200 bucks from their highs.
呃 情况变得非常糟糕 Uh? And it gets really bad.
我们看到人们持有这些股票 认为 你知道 有一天他们会回来 他们不会回来很长一段时间 And we see people holding those stocks thinking, thinking that, you know, one day they will come back, they're not going to come back for quite a while.
就像思科 如果你拿出20年 Like Cisco, if you pull up the 20 year
图表 它花了18年半的时间才恢复正常 chart, it took 18 and a half years for it to come back right.
除非你愿意在2008 2009年之后等那么久才能实现收支平衡 否则这是件好事 Unless you're willing to wait that long for you to somehow break even after 2008, 2009, then that's a good
策略 你可以以此为基础 strategy, and you could function upon that.
但是我们中的许多人 在这里我们的立场和swing交易员 我们需要了解的事实 当市场说你错了 特别是 你看看这个 这种视觉表 特别是当你 当你 你知道的 画在你的位置 或绘制画下你的帐户 是百分之十左右 每天会变得更糟 或者每一个百分比的你远离年底的10% But many of us that are here to our position and swing traders, and we need to understand the fact that when the market says you're wrong, and especially, you just look at this, this visual table, especially when you're, when you're, you know, draw down on your position, or draw draw down on your account, is around ten per cent it, it's going to get worse every single day, or every single kind of percentage you get away from 10% at the end of day.
所以还有另一种观念 你知道 这是另一种思维过程 在我卖掉它之前 损失还不是损失 So there's this other notion, you know, this, this other thought process, that a loss is not a loss until I sell it.
如果我有空仓 我会的 我不会输的 And if I have an open position, I will, I'm not kind of losing.
我只是在等待 你知道 我15%的提款 回到10%或者回到5% I'm just waiting for the, you know, my 15% draw down, to go back to 10% or go back to 5 %.
我会 我会摆脱它的 And I'll, and I'll get out of it.
所有这些 我们都做过了 All of this, we've done it.
我们所有人 你知道 这里的300多人都做了同样的事情 All of us, you know, the the 300, more than 300 people that are here have done that same thing.
但你需要确保风险管理从很多方面开始 你知道 关注损失的一面 而不是利润的一面 But you need to make sure that risk management starts with lot, you know, looking at the lost side and not the profit side.
你们需要 你们知道 也许在评论里 如果你们能坐下来 你们知道 写下你们的最大止损是多少 你们有什么 你们今天用什么 And you need to, you know, maybe in the comments, if you guys can sit, you know, put what your max stop loss is, and and what you have, what what you're using today.
如果你今天没有使用 你今天就需要设置一个 这样你才有机会 成为市场上的持仓和波动交易者 And if you're not using one today, you need to set one today for you to even have a chance, uh, to be a position and, uh, swing trader in the market.
所以 我想强调的最后一点是 只要做数学运算 当你看到这些数字的时候 比如你有一个30000美元的账户 如果你有一个15000或10000美元的账户 只要做数学运算 然后说 好吧 如果我要这样做 我需要多少钱才能还给你 So, uh, the last bit of it that I want to emphasize is, just do the math, manually will it when you when you actually see the numbers, like if you have a $30000 account, if you have a 15000 or $10000 account, just do the math and say, okay, if I were to do this, how much do I need to get back to even you?
一旦你用手去做 你就会亲眼看到 你的身体或你的内心深处永远不会允许你这样做 Once you do it manually, you'll see it for yourself and your your body or your the back of your mind will never allow you to to to be.
你知道 很糟糕 从那时起 很多人似乎就不这么做了 You know, that bad. From that point, a lot of people just don't seem to do it.
你可以看看这张桌子 你可以听到我和理查德对你说的 You could look at this table, you could hear me and Richard say it to you.
但一旦你对你的账户进行了计算 就像从心理上讲 它就嵌入了你在市场上的运作方式 But once you actually do the math versus your account, like if psychologically, just is embedded in how you function, uh, in the market.
所以我看到很多人说5%8%4%或5%2%到5% So I see a lot of, you know, people saying 5 %, 8% four or 5 %, two to 5 %.
这很好 你知道 至少 有个数字 对吧 Um, so that's good, you know, at the very least, just have a number, right?
这就是我们想要的 如果你没有数字你的善良回到第一卷 你会引用你开着一辆没有刹车的车 That's what we want. And if you don't have a number of your kindness goes back to the volume one, you'll quote where you're driving a car with no brakes.
呃 这真的 你知道 从来都不是一个好兆头 Uh? And that's really, you know, never a good sign.
所以 是的 完美 下一张幻灯片是一些风险管理规则 So, yeah, perfect. And I think the next slide just some risk management rules.
这是我们今天要讲的内容 这是一个很重要的概念 完全开放风险 This is a little bit about what we're coverage cover today, and it's important concepts a total open risk.
你知道 在任何给定的时间 如果你的每一个头寸都被止损 你会经历多少损失 You know, at any given time, uh, what is the drawdown or dollar loss that you will experience if every single one of your positions gets get stopped out?
硬损失率 我们刚刚讨论过这个 Hard loss percentage? We just talked about that.
你的最大止损比例是多少 你的最大持仓规模是多少 What's your max stop loss percentage, your max position size?
这些都是你应该写下来的规则 These are all rules that you should have written down.
在任何给定时间 你会关注的收费号码位置是什么 What is the toll number position that you'll focus on at any given time?
并已打开 这也是种族管理的一个方面 因为如果你在2030个名字中展开 你就不可能给每一个位置正确管理所需的时间和精力 And have open. This is kind of an aspect of race management as well, because if you're stretched out among 2030 names, you're not gonna be able to give every single one of those positions the time and attention needed to manage it correctly.
这是不可能的 所以我们今天会讨论一些建议 一些针对一些职位的指导方针 It's just not possible. So we'll talk about, uh, some recommendation, some guidelines for a number of positions today.
计算平均输赢 Calculating your average win, average loss.
当我们介绍后分析网络时 你会更深入地了解这些东西 This is stuff will get into you more when we cover the post analysis web.
它是股权 曲线分析 我们已经经历过了 你知道 专注于限制那些回调期 试图得到 你知道 从左到右的上升曲线 你的打击率 It art equity, curve analysis. We've already been through that, you know, focusing on limiting those pullback periods, trying to get that, you know, that rising curve from left to right you're batting average.
这是另一个重要的夏季统计数据 当涉及到后期分析时 我想这是什么 但这是七个 所以 这些是你应该写下来并巩固在你的规则集中的关键事情 That's another one of the key summer statistics that will focus on, uh, when it comes to post analysis, I-I think that's what, but are sevenary So, but these are really key things that you should have written down and cemented in your rule set.
很快地 在我们真正深入之前 我们今天会讨论很多关于规则的内容 And very quickly, before we actually dive in, um, we'll be talking a lot about rules today.
如果你没有作为交易者写下一套规则 你就没有做过必要的尽职调查 你就没有投入工作 就像加里·比亚所说的那样 没有真正在这一努力中脱颖而出 And if you don't have a rule set written down as a trader, you have not done the due diligence needed, you have not put in the work, as Gary Bia said, uh, to actually excel at this endeavor.
如果你没有写下你的规则 你没有仔细考虑过你的系统 你就不应该进行交易 Um, if you haven't written down your rules, you haven't thought through your system, um, and you shouldn't be placing a trade.
所以在这里的聊天中 我想看看有多少人 有多少人实际上已经制定了书面规则 他们如何筛选股票 如何进入头寸 如何设置止损 等等 So in the chat here, um, I want to see who, how many people have actually a written rule set down, walking through how they screen for stocks, how they enter positions, how they set their Stop us, all that.
所以在聊天的时候要诚实 在这里告诉我们 So be honest in the chat, and, uh, let let us know here.
这很好 我看到有人从这里进来 很好 That's good. I see people coming through here, perfect.
如果你没有 这应该是一个警钟 And if you don't, this should be a wake up call.
你还没想清楚你为什么要在市场上冒险 Um, why are you risking money in the markets when you haven't thought through your process?
你知道 你认识的很多人做很多你知道 他们买吸尘器 You know, a lot of people you know do a lot of you know, they're buying a vacuum.
他们会做研究 他们会比较评论 他们会比较评分 他们会做所有必要的工作来获得最好的交易 They'll do research, they'll compare reviews, they'll compare ratings, they'll do all the work necessary to get the best deal.
如果你不愿意这么做 If you're not willing to put in that same
工作和努力 你知道 几十年的努力真的可以让你发财 嗯 这真的没有意义 work and effort into on endeavor that you know, over decades can really make you a fortune, um, that doesn't really make sense.
所以 努力工作吧 今天是一个很好的开始 So put in the work, and this is a great start today.
希望你能带着一些具体的规则和指导方针开始你的规则集 Uh, that hopefully you should come away with some concrete rules and guidelines to start off your rules set.
要在这张幻灯片上加什么吗 So write anything to add on this slide?
不 我想我们可以进入下一个 No, I think we could get into the next one.
我也很好奇 你们中有多少人知道这些是什么意思 对吧 So we're gonna, you know, I I'm also curious to kind of, know, how many of you know what any of these mean, right?
因为我们会讨论其中的每一个然后深入了解如何计算它们 Because we're gonna be discussing each one of these and and get into the depth of how you can calculate them.
呃 但同样重要的是 你知道 了解它们的含义 它们为什么重要 Uh? But it's also important to just, you know, have the knowledge of what they mean, why they're important.
如果你不知道 你知道 今天会学到很多东西 And if you don't, you know, it'll be a lot of learning today.
所以 在这张幻灯片上 我们把一个例子放在一起 阶段一 二 三回到我们的第一个武器和她的第一个堤防 So, um, on this slide, we just put together an example of what Stage One, two and three goes back to our 1st weaponr and her 1st dike.
你知道 一个赚钱的交易者的进化 You know, the the evolution of a profitable trader.
通常 你知道 在第一阶段 交易员不知道 Um, usually, you know, in stage one, traders don't have an idea.
他们没有成文的规则 They don't have a written rule set.
他们没有任何风险管理原则 They don't have any risk management principles.
这就是为什么他们有战利品 That's why they have a loot.
你知道 股票曲线趋向下行 通常是第一阶段的交易者 You know, uh, an equity curve that's trending to the downside, usually as stage one traders.
你的短期收益可能更少 比如平均3% 而你的平均损失总是平均收益的两倍或更多 The gains our short lived about you could be less, just say 3% on average, and your average loss is always double or more your average gain.
平均损失是两倍 So average losses are always the double.
这就是为什么股票曲线呈下降趋势 That's why you see a downward trending equity curve.
他们真的没有关于最大止损的规定 They really don't have any rules around max stop loss.
他们没有 他们开的是一辆没有刹车的车 They don't. There's no, you know, they're driving a car with no brakes.
就是这么简单 他们拒绝承认他们正在这么做 It's as simple as that. And they refuse to acknowledge that they're doing that.
我看到你们中的一些人没有固定的规则 所以你们可能想停下来 And some of you, I see, don't have a rule set, so you probably want to stop.
停下 不管你在做什么 仅仅想要赢得胜利是不会成功的 Paused, whatever you're doing. You will not be successful just trying to win it.
市场不会这么做的 Uh, that's just not how the market will.
呃 你知道的 呃 从长远来看 你变得厌倦了 Uh, you know, uh, grew bored you in the long run.
他们真的不知道他们的打击率是多少 因为他们不认为数据很重要 They really don't know what their batting average is, because they don't think stats are important.
头寸规模对他们来说是一个陌生的概念 所以他们根据感觉来调整头寸 而只有第三阶段的交易者应该根据感觉来调整头寸 如果有的话 A position size is a foreign concept to them, so they size based on feel, when only Stage three traders should size based on feel, if any.
呃 一些人看到的仓位从2025年开始 他们的投资组合中有一个完整的E-T-F Uh? And positions some people have seen start out with 2025, they make a whole E-T-F out of their portfolio.
我认为他是一个极度愤怒的交易者 I'd expect a be a dense anger type of trader.
同时 这两件事不能同时发生 对吧 At the same time, those two things don't go together, right?
呃 开放风险 他们并不关心 Uh? And open risk, they don't really care about it.
呃 当他们涨了3%的时候 他们欣喜若狂 当他们把钱拿回来的时候 他们会说 哦 我会把钱拿回来的 Uh? When they're up three per cent, they're over the moon, and when they get it back, they just say, oh, I'll get it back.
他们没有真正的 呃 一个很好的衡量他们在做什么的工具 They don't have it really, UH, A good gauge on what they're doing.
最终 权益曲线会下降 And ultimately, there equity curves go down.
所以如果你不知道 如果你不知道其中一些是什么意思 你很可能是第一阶段的交易者 So if you don't know any, you know, if you don't know what some of these mean, you're likely a Stage One trader at this point.
即使你的收益是 你的损失是你所知道的两倍 你的收益是两倍 你仍然是一个第一阶段的交易者 因为你需要学习一些关于你的交易的关键统计数据 你甚至可以称自己为第二阶段的交易者 Even if your gains are, uh, you know, your losses are double than you know, doubled your gains are, you're still a Stage One trader, because you need to learn some of these very key statistics of your trading for you to even call yourself a Stage Two.
第二阶段的交易者 就像我们说过的 是一种繁荣萧条 Stage two traders, like we spoke about, are kind of the boom bust.
所以他们在市场上有很好的收益 但他们仍然有更大的净损失 So they have good gains in the market, but they still have larger losses on a net basis.
所以在繁荣的时候有5%的收益 然后是6%的损失 So there's a boom with the 5% gain, and they follow it up with a 6% loss.
他们知道 他们正在想办法 对吧 They know, they're kind of figuring it out, right?
呃 呃 你知道吗 他们 他们在想办法弄清楚 Uh, uh, you know it? They're, they're trying to figure it out.
呃 他们很亲近 他们有最大止损 比如说 10% Uh, they're close. They have a max stop loss, let's say, you know, 10 %.
嗯 他们大概 他们现在已经发现了很多仓位作为一个交易员的摆动是不起作用的 他们大概有10个 嗯 他们仍然不知道任何时候他们的未平仓风险 UH, they have approximately, they have now figured out that many positions as a swing in a position trader doesn't work, and they have approximately ten, UH, they still don't know their open risk at all times.
所以他们还没有 他们还没有 他们还没有把这个当作生意来对待 So they're not, they're not, they're not treating this like a business yet.
他们没有严肃地对待它 也没有专业地对待它 这是他们进入第三阶段所需要的 They're not treating it with this seriousness that it needs or the professionalism that it needs for them to be Stage Three.
他们知道如果他们要那样做 你知道 其中的一部分归结为 嘿 我会用时间解决的 They know that if they were to do that, it just, you know, some part of it comes down to, hey, I'll figure it out with time.
不然我就不需要这么做了 Or I don't need to do this.
或者有些人说 我不需要跟踪这些数据来让我变得更好一点 Or some people say, I don't need to keep track of these stats for me to be, uh, you know, a little bit better.
但三家公司的交易员都是深思熟虑的 对吧 But stays three traders are deliberate in what they do, right?
呆着两个交易员 他们知道他们需要这样做 但他们并没有真正去做 Stays two traders. They know that they need to do it, but they don't really do it.
这样做的最终结果是权益曲线仍然是向下的 对吧 The net outcome of that is that the equity curve is still to the downside, right?
所以 第二阶段的交易者差不多到了 So, stage Two traders are almost there.
我敢打赌 在座的大多数人都是做炖肉生意的 Most of you in here, I bet, are stay stew traders.
你们今天来到这里的原因是 你们想要学习 想要学习所有这些不同的 关于你们交易的统计数据 所以你们大多数人都属于这一类 You guys have, you know, the fact that you're here today is, you know, you want to learn, and you want to learn all of these a different, you know, statistics of your trading, so that most of you are in that bucket.
今天我们的目标是带你们进入第三阶段并真正展示一些成功的交易者在市场上所做的事情 And today our goal is going to be to get you to the Stage Three and really showcase what some of the successful traders um are doing in the market.
所以stateThree交易员通常收益更大 损失最小 So States Three traders usually have bigger gains minimize their losses.
他们有最大止损 They have a max stop loss.
就说百分之四或百分之五吧 Let's just say four or 5 %.
不一定是百分之五才有四个 Doesn't have to be four per 5 %.
我们只是想给第三阶段的交易者做侧写 We're just trying to profile a Stage Three trader.
他们的击球率 他们知道自己的击球率和位置大小 Their batting average. They know their stats on their batting average, their position size
十个位置 或者 不应该说是负的 as ten positions, or, uh, they should not say negative.
所以他们的仓位大小大约是10%到25%取决于他们在旅途中的位置 So their position size is depend is about ten to 25% perposition, depending on where they are in their journey.
顺便说一下 位置的数量实际上是倾斜的 所以位置的数量小于10 The number of positions as this is actually skewed, by the way, so number of positions is less than ten.
他们的敞口风险总是为人所知 Their open risk is always known.
他们知道如果他们所有的股票都达到止损点 他们知道他们的总投资组合风险是多少 So they know that if all of their stocks were to hit his, you know, but all of their stocks were to hit stop losses, they know what they're risking in terms of total portfolio risk.
他们的权益曲线呈上升趋势 因为他们的收益总是大于损失 And their equity curve is uptrending, because their gains are always bigger than their losses.
他们接受损失 大步前进 因为他们把损失降到最低 And they take losses and stride because they minimize their losses.
即使他们有一系列的进攻 他们知道这是依赖的 考虑到他们有优势 我们讨论过 他们有进入策略 我们讨论过 And even if they have a series of them, they know that dependent, you know, given that they have an edge that, which we discussed, they have the entry tactics, which we discussed.
现在 他们处于一种机械的状态 他们知道在他们的交易中 他们总是会在趋势股票中脱颖而出 Now, they're kind of in a mechanical state where they know that over a sears their trades, they will always come out on top with a trending equity.
女孩 理查德 你有什么想补充的吗 Girl. So, richard, any thoughts you want to add here?
顺便说一下 这是歪斜的 这是一种 仓位大小 10%到25% 仓位数量少于10%的未平仓风险在股票中是上升的 By the way, again, this is skewed, that this is kind of, you know, position size, ten to 25 %, number of positions less than ten open risk is known in equity is up?
嗯 是的 我补充一下 你知道 大多数交易者 你知道 我采访过的伟大的交易者 嗯 就数量头寸而言 他们肯定少于10个 通常更少 你知道 在5个左右 老实说 Um, yeah, I'll add, you know, most of the traders, you know, the great traders I've interviewed, um, in terms of number positions, they have definitely less than ten, usually less, you know, around the five mark, honestly.
就像我之前提到的 拥有五支股票可以让你真正了解你需要知道的关于这支股票的一切 And like, I like I was mentioning earlier that having five stocks allows you to really know everything you need to know about that stock.
观察它的价格走势 知道什么是正常的价格行为 什么是异常的价格行为 并且非常非常好地定位并执行你的计划 而不是拥有2020年05 30的股票 Watch its price movements, know what's normal price action, what's abnormal price action, and mayors that position really, really well and execute well on your plan, versus having 2020 05:30 stocks.
没什么要补充的了 Um, nothing too much else to add.
我看到一个关于击球率的问题 I saw a question about batting average.
这基本上就是你的胜率 有一种观点认为你需要80%到90%的胜率才能成功 That's basically your win rate. And there's this perception that you need an 80 to 90% win rate, uh, to be successful.
而对于摆动交易者和持仓交易者来说 这并不是真正的现实 And that's just not really the reality when it comes to swing traders and position traders.
每一个单独的交易者 你知道 davidRyan市场奇才接受过采访他们的胜率接近40%在最好的市场中 胜率是50% Um, every every single trader, you know, david Ryan market wizards who have interviewed they they have a win rate much closer to 40, you know, 50% in the best markets.
所以你可以凭借这种击球率获得非常非常的成功 因为你保持了你的回报或风险比 就像我们在这里指出的那样 8比4% 2比1 3比1 这才是你真正应该关注的 而不是有一个很高的击球率 因为仅仅关注击球率 你知道 会让你缩短获得的时间来锁定他们 So you can be extremely, extremely successful with that type of batting average, because you're, you're keeping your reward, or risk ratio, you know, a, as we've point out here, eight to 4 %, you know, two to one, three to one, uh, that's what you should really be focused on, versus having a really high batting average, uh, because simply focusing on your batting average, you know, makes you cut gain short to lock em in.
而且 你知道 让失败继续下去 希望他们成为赢家 And, you know, let losses run in the hopes that they become winners.
这与你在市场上取得业绩所应该做的恰恰相反 And that's the opposite of what you should be trying to do to achieve performance in the market.
这就是我要添加的内容 So, yeah, that that's all I think I'll add here.
太棒了 下一个 理查德 继续 Awesome. So next yeah, richard, go ahead.
是的 这里有更多关于这些数据的信息我们会做 就像我说的 一个完整的武器是后期分析 更可能的是 创建一些Excel表格 并给出它们 Yeah. So here's kind of a little bit more about about these stats and and we'll be doing, like I said, a whole weapon are on post analysis, and more likely, create some Excel sheets and give them out that.
这也让事情简单多了 That makes this a lot easier as well.
但是这里 你知道 还有一件事要强调为什么保护金融资本 通过减少损失 是非常非常重要的 But here's this, you know, uh, another thing to emphasize why preserving financial capital, by keeping those losses small, uh, is so so important.
在右手边 我进行了10次虚拟交易 结果不同 So here on the right hand side, I've put in ten dummy trades with different results.
我尽量把这些画得很逼真 I try to get these pretty realistic.
你六负四胜 You've got six losses and four wins.
这是总共10次交易中的一次 So that's out of a total of ten trades.
所以你有40%的击球率 So you've got a 40% batting average.
你可以看到 平均胜率是11 75% Your average win down there, you can see, is 11.75 %.
你们的平均损失是4%多一点 Your average loss is a little over 4 %.
你的胜败比是2 88 Your win to lost ratio is 2.88.
这太棒了 如果你能做到这一点 你就能大赚一笔 That's fantastic. If you can get that, you can make a fortune.
在这十笔交易中 你可以看到 你有三串亏损 两串盈利 然后三串亏损多于两串盈利 And out of the series of these ten trades, you can see you've got, you know, three strings of losses, two wins, then three more losses than two wins.
你最近的损失很小 You're keeping your losses recently small.
你在那里损失了7% 在10笔交易结束时 你得到了这个头寸的全部 因为考虑到这将是你投资组合的一部分 You've got one 7% loss in there, and at the end of the ten trades, you've got overall on this position, because thinking about this would be part of your portfolio.
在这一系列的交易中你总共获得了20%的收益 You've got a 20% uh gain overall on that position on over those series of trades.
这就是你要考虑的问题 在一系列的交易中 保持较小的损失 这样你就可以为所有这些交易支付收益并允许你随着时间的推移复合资本 So that's how you want to be thinking of this, always in a series of trades, keeping those losses small, so the gains that you do have really pay for for all of those and allow you to compound capital over time.
所以在这里的子弹 So over into the bullets here?
哦 是的 去做吧 我假设它们是相等的位置 Oh, yeah. Go ahead. I'm assuming these are equal positions.
是的 是的 这是考虑到相等的仓位大小 Yes, yes, this is considering equal position size.
是的 这是一种理想情况 Yeah. So this is kind of an ideal scenario.
强调一下 这里的重点是 即使有40%的胜率 如果你专注于窗口损失率 你也可以非常成功 Just to emphasize the point, um, well, yeah, the key points here is, even with a 40% win rate, you can be extremely successful if you're focusing on that window lost ratio.
小损失比大收益重要得多 Small losses is a lot more important than big, big gains.
我们之前提到过 也强调过 We we've we've mentioned this before, and emphasize it before.
专注于 Focusing on
随着时间的推移 限制你的劣势将会成为引导你表现的因素 风会照顾好自己 尤其是当你进入一个真正合作的环境时 capping your downside is gonna is gonna be what leads performance over time, that the winds will take care of themselves, especially when you get into a really cooperative environment.
一些不错的时尚赢家 A few good trendy winners
可以弥补很多小的剪纸 can make up for a lot of small paper cuts.
这就是我们现在关注的 That's what we're focused on here.
你要做好输掉每一个头寸的准备 And you want to expect to lose with every position that you enter.
你要一直想着 如果这阻止了我 我会损失多少 You want to be always thinking about, how much will I lose if this stops me out?
我怎样才能最小化停站 How can I minimize that stop?
你知道 如果我真的把货买光了 你损失的可能会比你赢的多 You know, that loss if I do get stocked out, because you're going to be losing likely more than your winning.
因此 预计每笔交易都会被止损 So expects, with every trade, to be stopped out.
想想如何提高止损 如何保持止损小 紧 有逻辑 我们今天会深入探讨 And think about how you can raise up your stop, how you can keep that stop lost small, tight and logical, and we'll dive deep into that today.
太棒了 是的 假设 这是你知道的 大小相等的地位 一旦我们进入后如何位置大小你输了 你知道 有一个 你知道的 连续三个交易 你 你失去了金钱 你可以缩小你的位置大小字符串眼镜在一起 这样你做的越来越少的伤害 直到市场 你知道 环境 不管它是什么 你在做什么 又开始工作 那么你可以扩大规模 Awesome. Yeah. And this is, assuming, you know, equal position sizes, once we get into how you can position size after you lose, you know, have a, you know, three trades in a row, that where you're, where you're losing money, you can then scale down your position size as you string glasses together, so that you're doing less and less damage until the market, you know, the environment, whatever it is that you're doing, starts working again, then you could scale up the size.
我们稍后会有一个例子 We'll get, we have a example later on.
对 没错 所以 是的 另外一边也有游戏 Yeah, exactly, on that. So, yeah, so getting, yeah, games the other side as well.
确保你在头寸上的损失很小还有一个很大的好处 那就是保护你的精神资本 保护你的信心 嗯 在一天结束的时候 你知道这和保护你的金融资本一样重要 甚至更重要 There's another really big benefit of making sure you're keeping your losses on positions really small, and that's preserving your mental capital, preserving your confidence, um And at the end of the day, you know this is just as important, or more important, than preserving your financial capital.
罗斯·哈伯强调小损失是刺痛大损失会让你出局 Ross Haber really emphasizes this small loss is sting the large losses take you out of the game.
如果你在一个头寸上损失了60% 或者 你知道 希望不是在你的账户上 这将是一个巨大的损失 If you suffer a 60% loss on a position, or, you know, hopefully not on your account, it's going to take a that that's a blow up.
要重新建立资本基础 重新建立舒适的环境 这样才能在市场上执行 It's going to take a lot to build up that capital base again, build up your comforts again, so you're able to execute in the markets.
然而 如果你能控制你的损失 确保你的损失不超过 你知道 在最坏的情况下 20% 你仍然在游戏中 However, if you keep your losses in check, make sure your drawdowns don't exceed, you know, at worse, 20 %, you're still in the game at that point.
你可以从所有不同的市场周期中受益 所有的上升趋势 所有的21世纪20年代 所有的90年代 所有的这些 And you can benefit from all the different market cycles, all the up trends, all the 2020s, all the nineties periods, all of that.
所以我们的目标应该是把损失控制在很小的范围内 这样你就可以在这个游戏中玩几十年 在你的整个职业生涯中 这样你就可以把你的账户复合起来 利用好时机 So the goal should be keep those lost a small so you're in this game for decades, for your entire career, so you can compound your out your account and take advantage of the good times.
良好的执行和承担损失应该建立信心 Executing well and taking a loss should build confidence.
所以即使有损失 如果我有3%的损失 我按照我的计划 我把止损点放在我说的地方 我兑现了它 So even taking a loss, if I take a 3% loss, and I followed my plan, I-I put my stop where I said I was going to be, I honored it.
这是笔不错的交易 虽然是笔损失 Um, that's a good trade, even though it's a loss.
所以仅仅因为你想改变回报 你知道 痛苦阈值从我在这次交易中赚了钱 或者我在这次交易中损失了 到我是否成功执行了我的头寸 So just just because you wanna change the the reward to, you know, pain threshold from did I make money on this trade, or did I lose on this trade, to did I successfully execute on my position?
如果你能在心里说 当我被止损时 我做得很好 你就在成为第三阶段交易者的路上了 If you can in your mind say I did a good job when I got stopped out, you'll be, you know, well on your way to becoming a Stage three trader.
因为这是正确的方法 正确的心态 有一个交易 Because that's the right approach, the right mentality, to have one trading um.
最重要的是 如果你把损失控制在很小的范围内 即使你连续三次亏损 连续五次亏损 And what's great is, if you keep your losses small, even if you have, you know, a string of three losses, five losses in a row.
如果你保持非常紧密的 只有一个好的贸易 你执行 你会得到一个增益可以支付所有的这些 你很快就会看到你的信心就回来了 所以即使你失去一点当你经历这些损失 只是一个好贸易执行好 呃 你看到一些结果 将使你回到你的一个游戏 让你 你知道 刷新 重新准备在市场上执行好 And if you keep those very tight, just one good trade that you execute well on that, you get a gain on can pay for all of those, and you'll quickly see that your confidence becomes back, so even if you did lose a little bit of it when you're experiencing those losses, just one good trade that you execute well on, uh, and that you see some results on, will bring you right back to your a game and allow you to, you know, be refreshed, renewed and ready to execute well in the market.
所以写任何东西添加在精神方面的事情时 风险管理和保持的损失小 是的 所以 我想 你知道 开始这种武器都是我们说的是同一件事 冷漠的方式来与你们交流对你你会有损失堆积在某个时间点上 你会有一连串的损失来 你会有 你知道 呃*市场的事情 你知道 你 你只要有最强烈的触动 就像 你买了东西 它就开始起作用了 你你你的信心就会飙升 So write anything to add on the mental side of things when it comes to risk management and and keep in the loss of small Yeah, so, I think, you know, to begin this weapon are all we've said is kind of the same thing with indifferent ways to try to communicate with you guys on you're you're gonna have losses pile up at some point in time, and you're gonna have a string of losses come through, and you're gonna have, you know, uh times in the market where things are, you know, you're, you just have the the mightest touch, like, you just buy something and it starts working, and you you your confidence goes through the roof.
我们如何处理情绪的起伏 并试图找到某种交易的平衡 How do we kind of take those highs and lows of our emotions and try to find some sort of equilibrium that we trade with?
所以当我非常非常快地赚了一大笔钱时 我不 你知道 一种方法是 在你的脑海中 在一天结束的时候 你唯一赚的钱就是你从交易或投资账户中取出的钱 然后把它存在你的支票或储蓄账户中 或者其他地方 对吗 So when I make a whole bunch of money very, very quickly, I don't I, you know, one way is to, in your mind, at the end of the day, the only money that you're making is what you take out of the trading or investing account and have that in your checking or savings, or wherever else, right?
这是你真正赚到的钱 That's the actual money that you're making.
这给了你一些现实的平衡在你的脑海里 你不会得到的 So that gives you some sort of realistic equilibrium that where in your mind, you you don't get too
连输几场就会激动 连赢几场就不会太兴奋 worked up when you string a few losses together, and you don't get too excited when you have a few winners together.
所以这都是游戏的一部分 So it's all part of the game.
专注于你更大的目标 And focus on kind of the bigger goal that you have.
对吧 不是为了赢得那一笔交易 Right? It's not to win that one trade.
这不是赔钱 你知道 我不会在那笔交易中赔钱 It's not to lose, you know, I'm not gonna lose on that one trade.
这是 It's
关于一系列的交易 会发生什么 about over a series of trades, what is going to happen?
一整年都是这样 And over a series, you know, the whole year.
我可以从我的账户中提取什么 这样我就知道我在一天结束时取得了进展 What can I extract from my account so that I know that I'm making progress at the end of the day?
对吧 所以 损失是会发生的 Right? So, um, losses will happen.
损失将会发生 这是游戏的一部分 Losses will happen. It's part of the game.
这是它 他们会发生在最优秀的人身上 It's it. They happen to the best people.
你可以有一个最完美的设置 这将在这里的几张幻灯片中提到 然后设置和间隔在你身上 You can have the most perfect setup, which will get into in a couple of slides here, and that set up and gap down on you.
你可以放弃你在三到六个月里取得的进步 但你必须重新振作起来 重新做同样的事情 And you could give away progress that you made three to six months, but then you had to pick yourself up and do the same thing all over again.
因为这不是每个星期或每个月都发生的事情 但每隔一段时间你就会有像a-c-r-d-o这样的事情发生 一切看起来都很好 很多进入 战术优势 等等 等等 一切都核对好了 然后根据一些新闻 你的差距减少了25% 对吧 Cause that it's not It doesn't happen every single week or every single month, but every once in a while you'll have something like a like, A-C-R-D-O come through, where it all looks fine, and lot of the entry, tactic edge, whatever, whatever, whatever, everything checks off, and then that thing gaps down 25% on you, based on some sort of news, right?
这归结为合适的位置大小 对吧 That comes down to proper position sizing, right?
如果我见到很多人 你知道 这不是自负的游戏 If I-I see a lot of people, you know, it's not a game of ego.
如果你不这样做 如果你调整了10%的规模 并将其展示出来 如果你调整了10% 并且连续有四到五个赢家 你仍然会 你仍然会在业绩方面做同样的事情 If you don't, if you size 10% and will showcase that, you know, if you size 10% and you have four to five winners in a row, you'll still, you'll still do the same in terms of performance.
呃 对一个输掉了一笔交易的人来说 Uh? For a guy that sizes up to 40% and then has one losing trade, right?
因为数学 这就是数学原理 Cause the math. That's just how the math works.
这就是仓位大小的作用 当你想要执行更小的操作时 当你只是市场说你很糟糕时 就站在场外 So that's where position size and comes in, uh, where you want to execute smaller, when you just the market says you suck, just stay on the sidelines.
当你的系统正常工作时 你会执行最大的任务 因为你有一连串的收益来支持你 呃 连续的 And you will execute the biggest when your system's working, because you have a string of gains to back you up, uh, in a row.
我想我们可以继续下一个了 对吧 So I think with that, we could go to the next, right?
是的 让我们来定义一下风险 Yeah. So let's get in to a little bit of defining a risk.
你们知道 这是对上次课内容的快速回顾 And this will be, you know, a quick review from last time.
基本上我们有一个整合模式 Pretty much we've got a consolidation pattern.
我们有一个非常标准的枢轴进场点 我们把止损点设在了 这里的低点 一个非常紧密和合乎逻辑的止损点 We've got a pretty standard pivot entry point, and we've got stop set at, uh, the higher low here, a pretty tight and logical stop loss.
所以我们要进入100停 96 5微米 So we've got to entry it 100 stop, 96.5 um.
今天我想讲的关键是 我认为这非常非常重要 And the the key thing I want to bring back today, and I think it's so, so important.
如果你不能严格 合理地管理你的风险 那么你就没有在一个合适的环境中执行 If you can't manage your risk tightly and logically, you're not executing at a proper setup.
这真的很重要 所以当你回头做事后分析的时候 尤其是对你最大的输家 想想你的进场点 考虑一下 我是否在一个我有优势的地方进场 那里有进场设置 That's really important. So as you go back and do post analysis, especially on your biggest losers, think about your entry point and consider, did I enter it at a spot where I've got an edge, where there's an entry setup?
我们是一个整体强劲的股票的一部分 一个强劲的主题 We're part of an overall strong stock, a strong theme.
形势对我有利 Uh, the edges are playing in my favor.
从技术上讲 它是否处于一个我预计会有大动作的位置 And is it at a spot, technically, where I'm expecting a big move?
我很快就知道我是对还是错 如果我错了 我可以以很小的损失退出 and I will know quickly if I'm right or wrong, and if I'm wrong, I can exit with a very small loss.
这真的很重要 所以如果你不能像这样管理你的风险 这就不是一个合适的设置 That's really important. So if you can't manage your risk like this, it's not quite it's not a proper setup.
你需要做更多的工作来寻找一个更好的切入点 你需要做更多的学习 And you have to do more work to look for a better entry point, and you have to do a little bit more learning.
我肯定会考虑重新看一遍昨天的武器手臂 对吧 And I definitely consider rewatching yesterday's weapon arm, right?
这张幻灯片上还有什么要补充的吗 Anything to add on this slide?
不 我的意思是 如果你不知道 你知道 在第一阶段 许多 嗯 你知道 今天的参与者 你必须知道一个明确的点 No, I mean, if you don't, you know, at stage one, to which many of, uh uh, you know, participants are today, you have to know a definitive point like that.
回到第一张幻灯片 你知道 如果你没有最大损失和止损 你知道在这一点上 我是错的 Goes back to the very 1st slide, where you know, if you don't have a max loss and you don't have a stop loss, that you know that at this point, I'm wrong.
所以在这一点上 当股票回归并打破这个 我错了 So at this point, when the stock comes back in and breaks this, I'm wrong.
因为当我进入这里的时候 对吧 because when I when, when I entered over here, right?
我的论文 不管它是什么 多重优势 市场看起来不错 等等 等等 Uh, my thesis, whatever it was, multiple edges that play, uh, markets looking good, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
不管你在这里是怎么想的 如果价格回来 违反了这个 它就都出局了 Whatever your thought process was over here, if the price comes back in and violates this, it's all out the door.
你在这里说的都是实话 对吧 Whatever you said over here is all out the door, right?
你需要考虑接下来的十笔交易 而不是这一笔 因为很多第一阶段的卖主 都改变了计划 You have to think of the next ten trades instead of this one, because a lot of Stage one traitors, you have changed plans over here.
你只是在脑海中想出一些创造性的理由 你知道 市场会很好 You just come up with some creative reason in your mind to say, you know, the market will be fine.
让我看看接下来的几天会发生什么 Let me just see what happens the next couple of days.
市场就不太好了 因为你的进场策略表明你期望从那个进场点开始有方向性的变动 而你预期的方向变动是向上的 因为所有的可能性都是一致的 但是市场说 嘿 从这个进场点开始的变动方向不是向上 而是向下 And the market is just not fine, because your entry tactics said you're expecting directional movement from that entry point, and the directional movement you anticipated was to the upside, because all the probabilities lined up, but then the market saying, hey, the direction of movement from this entry is not to the upside as the downside.
所以这只是听市场怎么说的问题 对吧 So it's just a matter of listening to what the market's saying, right?
这只是 It's just
其实市场是在告诉你 给你反馈 a matter of really the market is telling you and giving you feedback.
市场通过风和损失与你沟通 对吗 And the market communicates with you through winds and losses, right?
当它说你错了 你就退一步 让开 And when it says you're wrong, you step back, step out of the way.
想想接下来的1020个交易 Think of the next 1020 trades.
我 你知道 一个视觉提醒 I you know, a visual reminder on
你的桌子上或者手机上的视觉提醒 任何对你来说最有效的方式 当我的止损触及时 我不会和它争论 your desk or a visual reminder on your phone, whatever way works best for you to say that when something, when my stop loss hits, I will not argue with it.
会让你领先市场上的其他人十步 因为他们的心理会在他们的止损点被击中时想出创造性的理由 Will get you ten steps ahead of everybody else that's in the market, because their psychologies are wired to come up with creative reasons when their stops are hit.
如果你能把你的思维过程串联起来 说 嘿 市场说法不起作用 我会在下一个例子中得到它 And if you could wire your thought process to say that, hey, market saying is not working, I will get it on the next one.
你知道 在接下来的十次交易中 我会得到它 I will get it, you know, over the next ten trades.
这很好 因为数学运算非常非常好 It's perfectly fine, cause the math works out really, really well.
所以 是的 它只是有更多的东西 So, yeah, it just to have one more thing.
从某种意义上说 强有力的进场策略是正确买入是你最好的防御 因为这可以让你的最坏情况尽可能小 In a sense, uh, a strong entry tactic is is and buying right is kind of your best defense, because that allows your worst case scenario to be as small as possible.
是的 这是我唯一想补充的 Um, yeah, that's the only thing I wanted to add here.
继续 我想我们有更多关于这个的幻灯片 So moving on, I think we've got a few more slides about this.
定义你的数学风险 So defining your risk of the math.
所以我们必须以100的速度进入 So we've got to entry at 100.
我们必须停在96 5 We've got to stop at 96.5.
风险百分比为3 5% 你只需要把这些数字相除 然后算一下 The percentage risk is 3.5. You just have to divide the numbers and do the math there.
你也可以计算你的沉闷风险 因为有些人喜欢用百分比来思考 And you can also calculate your dull risk, because some people prefer to think in percentages.
这就是我的风格 为什么我知道你更看重金钱 That's kind of my style. Why I know you're a little bit more um the dollar side of things.
因此 为了计算你的美元风险 它就是股票数量乘以你的进场点和止损点之间的差额 So in order to calculate your dollar risk, all it would be is the number of shares multiplied by the difference between your entry point and your stop loss.
所以100张椅子 你你你的最大损失是03 50美元 So on 100 chairs, uh, your your your max loss would be 03:50 dollars.
这是你预期的止损 That's, that's your anticipated stop loss.
如果你的真被撞了 Um, if your it does get hit.
所以一定要提前算好 So definitely do the math ahead of time with all of this.
我想说的是 除了设定一个像百分比止损这样的最大值 设定一个金额数字 如果你在一笔交易中损失超过这个数字 你就违反了一些不好的规定 And I would say, in addition to setting A-A max like percentage stop, create a dollar figure where if you, if you lost more than that on a trade, you violated something bad.
你要分析每一笔交易 And you want to analyze every single one of those trades.
这是我刚开始交易时的练习 This is exercise that when I 1st started trading.
这是一个挑战 你知道 如果有超过500美元的损失 我们必须分析这笔交易 并通过我们可以做的每一件事来防止损失 你知道 那么大 This is, this is one of the challenges where, you know, if there is a loss over $500, we had to analyze that trade and walk through every single thing that we could have done to prevent that loss UH from being, you know, that big.
因此 在沙地上设定一个谎言 无论是百分比金额还是美元金额 让你做数学计算 知道你在任何给定的交易中冒了多大的风险 So set a lie in the sand, both in a percentage amounts as well as a dollar amount, and makes you do the math and know how much you're risking on any given trade.
下次吧 现在 从投资组合的角度来看 因为我确实看到了一些关于投资组合风险的问题 Uh, next time. Now, taking into the portfolio level, because I did see a few questions about portfolio risk here.
如果你的总投资规模是1000 我们只是用它来简化计算 So if you've got a total portfolio size of one hundredk we're just using that to to make the math easy.
可以是10美元 20美元 5000美元 1000美元 500美元 不管你是多少 你在你的旅程中处于什么位置 都可以 It could be TENK, 20, fivek uh, $1000, $500, whatever it is for you, and where you at in your journey, that's fine.
你要做的是将美元风险除以你的投资组合 这就得到了基于单一头寸的投资组合风险 Um, what you want to do is divide that dollar risk by your toperfolio, and that gives you your portfolio risk based on that single position.
然后为了计算你的投资组合风险或者你的公开投资组合风险在给定的时间 你基本上把所有的头寸加起来 把所有的个人风险加在一起 这样你就得到了你的总提现 And then in order to calculate your toe portfolio risk or your open portfolio risk at a given time, you basically sum up all the positions, you have, some of all their individual risks together, and that gives you your total draw down.
如果每一个止损点都被击中 你也可以根据损失金额来计算 你的总损失金额每一笔交易都被击中 Um, if every single stop was hit, and you can do this based on dollar loss as well, your total dollar loss amount every every single thing was hit.
就像我们说的 跟踪这个指标非常重要 因为 你知道 通常当趋势改变 我们进入一个修正时 很多止损会同时受到冲击 And like we said, it's really important to keep track of this metric um, because, you know, often when the trend changes and we enter a correction, a lot of stops are getting hit all at once.
许多股票正在改变性质 A lot of stocks are changing character.
你想知道 在任何给定时间 如果趋势改变 我的期望是多少 And so you want to know, at any given time, you know, if the trend changes, what is my expect to draw down?
我能接受吗 And am I comfortable with that?
我对我现在所冒的风险感到满意吗 Am I comfortable with the risk I'm taking right now?
或者 你知道 我应该在这个趋势的后期认识到这个世界吗 Or, you know, should I recognize that world a little bit later in the trend?
我开始看到止损点越来越多了 I'm starting to see stops get hit a little bit more?
也许我应该告诉你 不是我的总风险以及 你知道 限制我在新头寸上承担的新风险 Maybe I should tell you, not my overall risk and and, you know, limit the new risk I take with new positions.
所以 嗯 是的 我认为能够计算单个头寸的风险 以美元的百分比计算风险 以及将其带到投资组合层面并跟踪这些指标是非常重要的 So, um, yeah, I think it's really important to be able to calculate both the single position risk, both in a percentage dollar amount, as well as take it to the portfolio level and keep track of these metrics.
写一些东西来补充 你知道 不断尝试这个指标 或者计算它 或者类似的东西 Write anything to add about, you know, keeping trying this metrics, or or calculating it or anything like that?
不 我的意思是 如果今天 你不知道 假设你在市场上有一个头寸 你不知道 如果这个头寸受到打击 你的投资组合有多少风险 No, I mean, if today, you don't know, let's say you have a position in the market, and you don't know that if, if that position was hit, how much of your portfolios at risk?
那一年你还没有 第一阶段 You haven't that year, stage one.
就这么简单 And it's as simple as that.
在一系列的交易中 你会继续赔钱 Over a series of trades, you will continue to lose money.
这是最原始的事实 如果你不知道这两个数据 这是非常基本的你知道这个吗 That's the raw truth. And if you just don't know these two stats, which are very basic as the you know, uh this?
我的美元风险是多少 或者说百分比风险是多少 What's my dollar risk, or what's my percentage risk?
此时我的开放式投资组合风险是多少 And what's my open portfolio risk at this very moment?
那么 你你到最后还不够好 市场就是这样所以唯一的另一件事 我 Right then, you you it's not good enough at the end of the day, And that's just how it goes, um in the markets the So the only other thing, um that I
我知道很多人的Excel表格都有这个功能 do have to add here here is, I know a lot of people have Excel sheets that do this.
我认为 I think going
这种方式很好 因为你可以自己看到数字 that way is really good, initially, because you get to see the numbers for yourself.
再说一遍 如果你一行一行地做 我很喜欢 数学上可能是在笔记本上 至少前几年是这样 对吧 Again, I'm very big on if you do it line by line, and mathematically may be on an even notebook, at least the 1st couple of years, right?
头几年 你把这些写出来 The 1st couple of years, you just write those out.
然后 你知道 你会达到这样一种状态 现在 我对整数进行运算 基于我脑子里的想法 因为我可以说 好吧 我想买10000辆Boober 我就停在这里 Then, you know, you get to a state where, right now, I operate on whole numbers, and based on kind of I-I know in the back of my head, because I could say, okay, I want to buy 10000 a Boober, and I'll, you know, place to stop here.
对我来说 一切都是精神上的 And everything's kind of mental for me.
但是第一阶段和第二阶段 对你来说不可能都是心理上的 因为你还没有经历过这样的步骤 你甚至还没有达到那种状态 你知道 我可以说 好吧 我要卖3000个10个 我得到这个 我可以把我的止损向上移动 But stage one and two, it can't be all mental for you, because you don't, you haven't gone through the paces to for you to even get to that state where, you know, I could say, okay, I'm going to sell 3000 of the ten, I'll get this here, and I can move my stop loss up.
我可以心算 因为我已经算过了 对吧 I can do that mentally, because I've done the manual work, right?
所以一定要做手工工作 So make sure you do do the manual work.
无论是Excel表格 手工计算 还是你自己 只要在手机上安装一个计算器应用程序 然后计算出一些数字 Be it Excel sheets, be it manually, be it you, just get a calculator app right on your phone and just crunt some of the numbers.
它会给你很大的帮助 It will help you so so much.
因为 你知道 你知道 你知道 我投资组合的6%是 你知道 15000股 Cause then, you know, you know, 6% of my portfolio is, you know, 15000 shares.
这个百分比是 如果我交易一只30美元的股票 我的数字是这个 This percent is that if I'm trading a $30 stock, my number is this.
那些数学 如果你懂的话 会很棒的 That math, if you know it, it will be so good.
因为在这一点上 你的风险管理 不仅是视觉上的 也是心理上的 Because at that point, your your your risk management, is not only visual, but it's also mental.
与此同时 在你如何管理你的投资组合和头寸规模方面 这些都是非常强大的 At the same time, in having those to a line as super powerful in terms of how you go about, uh, managing your portfolio and also your position sizes.
是的 我想我们可以继续了 So yep. I think we move on here.
这是定义风险的几个关键问题 对吧 So just a few key things about defining risk, you know, right?
提到了所有这些 你应该时刻意识到你的全部未平仓风险和提现 Kind of mention all this. You should always be aware of your total open risk and draw down.
如果你拥有的所有股票都触及止损点 你就可以完全控制你的资本在任何给定时间的风险 If all stocks hit their stop losses that you own, you are in complete control of how much your capital is at risk at any given time.
把它想象成管理他们的生意 And think of it like managing them as as business.
你总是想知道你的风险和盈亏平衡线 这样你就能在晚上睡觉 嗯 你知道 能够做出明智的决定 You always want to be aware of your risk and break even line so you can sleep at night and um are able to make, you know, informed decisions.
这真的很重要 我再补充一下 如果你用计算器 你用计算器 我看到很多这样的 对吧 That's really important. Just just to add, if you're using a calculator, and you're just using a calculator, I see a lot of them out there, right?
无意识地 这这对你没有帮助 Uh, mindlessly, It's it's not going to help you.
比如 如果你知道 我有一个5万美元的账户 10%的仓位是一个30美元的账户持有X股 你不知道吗 Like if you, if you know, I have a $50000 account and a 10% position size is X number of shares for a $30 account, You don't know that?
到最后还不够好 对吧 It's not good enough at the end of the day, right?
如果你需要一个计算器来计算的话 从一个富人那里得到的还不够好 Is really not good enough from a rich man, if you need a calculator to do that.
我不是说你需要成为一个数学 你知道 魔术师才能成功 I'm not saying you need to be a math, you know, magician for you to be successful.
但是你应该知道 当我尝试30美元的股票时 我可以买x的量 But you should know, you know, when I tried a $30 stock, I could buy x amount.
当我尝试50时 我交易了x When I tried a 50, I trade x amount.
我说 当我赚到100时 你应该对你管理的投资组合规模有一个很好的感觉 知道你可以建立什么样的头寸 When I get a hundred, I said, you should have a really good feel for the portfolio size that you're managing, as to what kind of positions you could put on.
我看到很多人进入 你知道 我会把这个输入我的计算器 我就会得到我能买的632股 I see a lot of people get into the, you know, I will punch this into my calculator, I'll get the exact 632 shares I could buy all.
很好 这是通过计算器算出来的 That's fine and good, uh, it's through a calculator.
但如果你做不到 我可以买大约600把椅子 But if you can't do that, meant I could buy approximately 600 chairs.
你没有做功课 这就是它最后告诉我的 You haven't done the homework, that's that's all it tells me at the end.
很多交易员都这样做 我有个计算器 And a lot of traders done to, you know, I have a calculator.
我把号码打进去 拿到钱 I'll punch in the numbers and get it.
这是次要的 这太机械了 That's that's secondary. Like, that's way too mechanical.
你把艺术去掉了 You take the art out of it.
一开始这样做是好的 但这只是意味着你要依靠一些东西 比如计算器来告诉你你的头寸大小 It's good to do it initially, but it just means you're relying on something, uh, as a calculator to tell you your position size.
只是有一些心理你知道 有一个想法 你需要做什么 没有计算器 以及 Just have some mental you know, have have an idea of what you need to be doing without some sort of calculator as well?
我想这会让你觉得这是下一个层次 对吧 I think this it will give you that it's just a next level, right?
呃 现在人们的思维方式是计算器 Uh? The way people think right now is calculators.
但如果你知道如何管理你的生意和东西 嗯 还有交易 这是一个完全不同的游戏 你就会领先于其他人 But if you have an idea of how you manage your business and stuff, uh, and trading, it was, it's just a whole different game, you'll be ahead of the the pack.
所以我们来谈谈有趣的事情通过定义你的风险 So let's talk about the fun stuff By defining your risk.
那降低帽子呢 是啊 我估计会有问题 What about cap downs? Yeah, so I-I anticipate some questions on this.
所以我们一定要解决这个问题 So we definitely want to address that.
首先 你知道 我认为这种情况比你想象的要少得多 1st, you know, I think these happen a lot less often than you think.
我认为 你知道 这是人们不设止损的主要理由之一 I think, you know, there's one of the main excuses why people don't set stop losses.
有个缺口会把我弄出去 然后它就会裂开 Oh, a gap down's gonna take me out, then it's gonna rip.
嗯 一般来说 空档下跌发生的频率比你想象的要低得多 尤其是当你从非常可靠的进场策略和强劲的股票中操作时 它们确实会发生 Um one. You know, gap downs, just in general, happen a lot less often than you think, especially when you're when you're operating from pretty solid entry tactics and strong stocks, they do happen.
但是你要认识到这些都是消极的期望破坏者 But you you want to recognize that these are negative expectation breakers.
它们是来自市场的负面反馈 They're negative feedback from the market.
正如我所说的 如果你进入这里 你的预期是 你知道 一个强劲的上行走势 而结果却相反 你应该尊重你的原始预期 As I kind of walked through, if you enter here and your expectation is, you know, a strong move to upside and does the opposite, you should honor your original
计划并简单地退出并承担损失 即使它比它少 如果它的差距低于 plan and simply exit and take the loss, even if it was less than if, if it gap below
你的止损老板 能退出就退出 your stop boss, exit when you can.
就是这么简单 嗯 It's as simple as that. Um.
从几十年的角度来看 从许多市场周期来看 在这种背景下的一次交易并不是真的 Think again in in terms of decades, in terms of many market cycles, one trade in that context does not really
重要的是 你只想不惜一切代价保护你的资本并确保你仍然可以参与其中 matter, and you just want to preserve your capital at all costs and make sure that you can still participate in those.
如果你回想一下 作为80岁的自己 你知道 你回想一下火车上有一个缺口 If you think back, uh, as your 80 year old self, and, um, you know, you're, you're thinking back on a train where there's a gap down.
你会对自己感到满意吗 你知道 承担继续前进的损失 继续保存一笔资本 Are you going to be happy with yourself just, you know, taking the loss of moving on and continue to preserve a capital?
或者你会担心我可能会回来 然后我就会恢复 你知道 这只是算法 所有这些 Or are you gonna be so worried about all I might come back and I'm it'll just recover, you know, this is just the algoes, all of that.
不 你会为自己的计划感到骄傲的你会走出去 停止它然后继续前进 当它再次出现时 或者寻找另一个机会 No, you're gonna be proud of yourself for honoring your plan and getting out and, uh, taking your stop it and moving on to, either when it sets back up again, or onto another opportunity.
那么大的落差呢 你知道 这种情况发生了 你知道 很少 但它们确实发生了 What about larger gap downs? You know, these happen, you know, rarely, but they do happen.
我我经历过一些 Um, I I've experienced a few.
我是这么想的 我们应该从心理学的角度深入研究 因为 当这些发生的时候 感觉不太好 Um, I think it this. And we should dive it deep into the kind of psychology perspective, because, you know, when these occur, it doesn't feel good.
这很伤我的心 很疼 It hurts. It hurts a lot.
钱没了 你必须认识到这一点 The money is gone. You have to kind of recognize that.
你要确保你能客观地处理它 You want to make sure that you deal with it objectively.
再说一遍 首要原则是保本 And again, number one rule is capital preservation.
如果股票下跌25% 你的计划就泡汤了 If it stock gaps down 25% on you, that breaks your plan.
你的规则告诉你退出 Your rules tell you to exit.
你应该冷静 客观地去做 这才是正确的选择 You should do it calmly, objectively and and that that's just the way to go.
这就是你必须要做的 That's kind of what you have to do.
你必须 你必须切断腐烂的部分你知道你正在处理的是 You have to, you have to cut off the rotten part of you know that you're dealing with um.
很简单 你想退出并保留你的资本 So simply, you want to exit and preserve your capital.
我还建议在当天暂停交易 I'd also recommend taking a break from trading that day.
你能做的最糟糕的事情就是让你的情绪控制你 试图报复交易 从而加剧错误 The worst thing you can do is compound an error by, you know, letting your emotions take control of you, trying to revenge trade.
哦 它会填补空缺的 Oh, it's going to fill the gap.
现在又不能填补空缺了 Uh, now it's not filling the gap.
我又在外面被拦住了 让我把尺寸调高一点 因为它现在在做A-U转弯 I got stopped out again. Let me size up higher, because it's making A-U turn now.
现在它要恢复了 算法现在正把它移得更高 Now it's going to recover. The algos are now moving it higher.
不 你应该退一步 意识到自己受了伤 No, you want to take a step back, recognize that you've taken an injury.
当你经历了一些事情 你扭伤了脚踝 你摔断了脚踝 那时候你就没有最佳的心态去交易 when you've gone through something, you've twisted your ankle, you've broken your ankle, and you're not right in the right frame of mind to trade at your best at that point.
所以请坐下 确保你接受了康复治疗 接受了物理治疗 这样当你回来的时候 你可以 你可以循序渐进 你可以重新开始减肥 So take take a seat. Make sure you go through your rehab, go through your physical therapy, so that when you do come back, you can, you can take it in steps, you can start sizing again.
因为像这样的事情 人们并没有意识到它对他们心理的影响有多大 直到事后 你才意识到你的损失比应有的要大得多 因为你在这些事情上进行了报复性交易 Because something like this, people don't quite recognize how much it affects their psyche, until in hindsight, you recognize that your loss is way bigger than it should have, because you revenge trade into all these things.
所以 你知道 一个很好的方式来定义这个问题 一个交易冠军火腿会如何处理这个差距 So, you know, a good way to frame the question is, how would a trading champion ham handle the gap down?
你们中的很多人还不是训练有素的冠军 You know, a lot of you guys aren't, are yet trained champions.
你会的 但是MarkManervini会如何对待它呢 You will be. But how would Mark Manervini treat it?
大卫·瑞安会怎么处理呢 How would David Ryan treat it?
他们只会把它剪掉 然后继续前进 They would simply cut it and move on.
他们认识到这是游戏的一部分 他们认识到 随着时间的推移 他们有了优势 他们会回来的 They recognize its part of the game, and they, they recognize that over time, they've got an edge, and they'll make it back.
但现在这些钱都没了 But that money is lost at this point.
你知道 我已经处理了我建立的一个快速的缺口 You know, I've dealt with a fastly gap down I've built.
我处理了Cyardio的缺口下来 净净净 I dealt with the Cyardio gap down, net net.
你站在了顶端 因为你有优势 会有另一个上升趋势 另一只股票 另一个机会 You come up on top, because you've got an edge, and there'll be another up trend and another stock, another opportunity.
但在那一刻 你只需要做艰难的事情 减少损失 继续前进 But in that, in that moment, you just have to do the the tough thing, cut your loss and move on.
这确实在那一刻提供了解脱 因为在那一点上 既然你不在位置上 你可以再次客观地思考 And that does provide relief right in that moment, because at that point, now that you're out of position, you can think objectively again.
再说一次 你只是想花一些时间来建立你的信心 And then again, you just want to take some time and build up your confidence.
但是把你的想法写下来 But write any thoughts on on your end with this.
是的 比方说 你知道 我们将crdo例如 最近的一次 嗯 你知道 股票做得对 你拿着一个位置 你有 你知道 百分比 呃 这东西只是下来一堆小时之后 现在你在一个坏点 知道你的数字的 嘿 这是违反我的停止 经过几个小时 或者什么 无论如何 我需要离开这个位置 而不是 你知道 呃 指责外部 呃 看看那些你没有在内部做出决定的数字 你就会遥遥领先 Yeah, so let's say, you know, we take a cr D-O E.G., which is a recent one, um, and, you know, the stocks doing everything right, you're holding a position, and you have, you know, percent on, uh, and that thing just gets down a whole bunch after hours, and now you're in a bad spot, knowing your numbers in terms of, hey, it's violated my stops, be it after hours, or what, whatever the case may be, I need to get out of this position instead of, you know, uh, blaming externally, uh, look at the numbers that you haven't internally to make that decision, you'll be far ahead.
对吧 你要做的另一件事是 比如说 是的 你抓住了差距 现在情况很糟糕 Right? Um, The the other thing that you want to do is, let's say, yes, you caught the gap down, and now things are bad.
你应该有一个客观的观点 好吧 人们用我们的倍数作为一种方式 对吧 You should always have an objective view of, okay, People use our multiples as a way, right?
所以 你知道 在我的交易中 有五分之四是平的 我把我的盔甲倍数加起来是+14或+15 So that I had, you know, four out of the five flat, you know, of my trades, I've, I've racked up my armour multiple to be plus 14 or plus 15.
现在这个C-R-D-O是-20 Now this C-R-D-O is a -20, let's say.
对吧 所以现在你的-5 就这些的倍数而言这将给你一个很好的视角你的设置 事情看起来不会那么糟糕 Right? So now your minus five, and in terms of the are multiple that will give you a really good perspective of where you set, and things won't look at as bad.
当 当你把 你知道 一个镜头从 你知道 从那里 And when, when you put up, you know, a lens from, you know, on it from that
从这个角度来看 你会更快更容易地接受损失 然后说 天哪 这个医生损失了35% point of view, what happens is you will take the loss a lot quicker and a lot easier on yourself then saying, oh my God, this physician's down 35 %.
呃 你不知道它是如何影响港口满山的 你在这个名字上放了多少仓位 它意味着什么 你知道 假设这发生在五月到九月之间 Uh? And you don't have any idea on how it affects a port full hill, how much position size you put on that name, what it means, you know, let's say this happened, you know, from May to September.
你今年进步很大 对吧 You made a lot of progress this year, right?
就市场的趋势而言 现在你已经把它都还给我了 Uh, in terms of, uh, uh, the trend in the markets, and now you've given it all back.
归根结底 你知道 你从最近的高点回落的事实太你知道 它太大了 It's it comes down to the, you know, the fact that your draw down from your recent high is way too you know, it's way too big.
而且你没有记录下这些数字 And you haven't kept track of the numbers.
在一天结束的时候 如果你有了这些数字 你就可以用数学方程式来计算 你的仓位大小 你的未平仓风险 或者说FO 你的风险 每个仓位的风险 这就容易多了 你会像一个专业人士而不是一个业余爱好者那样管理它 这就是第二阶段和第三阶段的区别 At the end of the day, if you have the numbers, and you function on the mathematical equations that are kind of, you know, your position size, your open risk, or FO, your risk, your, uh risk per position, it will be so much easier, and you'll manage it like a professional instead of an amateur at the end of day, that's what separates, you know, stage Two step from Stage Three.
西亚多被袭击的时候 很多人被抓了 When Syardo was hit, a lot of people got caught.
我敢打赌 那些专业的交易员看了它 不知道他们的数字 I bet you the professional traders that that look at it and don't know their numbers.
嘿 好吧 我刚瘦了20磅 一年多起来快40个小时了 Hey, okay, I just lost 20 r and I'm up like 40 hour on the year.
我退了一半的收益 I gave back half my gains.
我就拿着它继续吧 I'll just take it and will continue.
这就是他们的心态 这就是它们的运作方式 That's their mindset. That's how they functioned.
是的 很明显很疼 这是人类的本性 Yes, it hurts, obviously. It hurts as human nature.
你会回馈很多进步 你会回到三四个月前 对吧 And you give back a lot of progress, you go back three, four months, right?
但是他们正确地定位了大小 当他们看到法律 But they position size properly. When they see the laws.
他们知道自己付出了多少 They know their numbers on how much they gave back.
他们知道未来需要做些什么来弥补损失 因为他们有一个正确的系统 他们确切地知道他们应该回报多少 They know what they need to do in the future to to recover from this loss, because they have a system right and they know exactly how much they give back.
很多叛徒 我觉得 当他们被打了个空档 他们都不知道 A lot of traitors, I feel, when they get hit with a gap done, they'd have no idea.
他们不知道自己回馈了多少 They have no idea how much they have given back.
他们不知道自己的头寸有多大 They have no idea how much their position size.
他们不知道这对他们的投资组合造成了多大的伤害 They have no idea how much, you know, this hurt their portfolio.
他们只是专注于这样的想法 嘿 这将会下跌 如果它反弹 我就会卖出 They're just so focused on the like, hey, this is gonna gap down, and if it rallies, I'll sell.
然后它没有反弹 然后他们继续持有 然后他们变成投资者 然后这个 那个 那个 And then it doesn't rally, then they continue holding, then they turn into investors, then this and that and that.
所有这些垃圾都出现在你的脑海里 因为你的情绪很高 All of that crap comes into your mind because your emotions are high.
你不能做出理性的决定 你不知道你的数字在上面 You can't make rational decisions, and you don't know your numbers on top.
当这三件事堆积在一起时 你就把自己 你知道 对你来说 你就把自己置于失败的境地 对吧 When those three things pile up in a row, you're, you're putting yourself, you know, for you, you're setting yourself up for failure at that point, right?
我们不想这样做 And we don't want to do that.
我们想回去 我想回到最基本的 不 不 是你的数字 We want to go back. I want to go back to the basics of, no, no, your numbers.
了解你的仓位大小 了解你的开仓 了解你的全部风险 Know your position size, know your open you know for full your risk.
当一个职位空缺时 要知道这个职位对你的伤害有多大 Know how much a position hurts you when a gaps down.
对吧 如果你马上就知道这个数字 你就会比市场上的其他人做出一个理性的 更好的决定 Right? If you know that number right off the bat, you'll make a rational and a better decision than anybody else in the market.
所以这真的是一个微妙的区别 So that's really, it's a subtle difference.
这是一个非常小的区别 但最大的区别是知道如果你赶上一个很大很大的差距 你会受到多大的伤害 这是不可避免的 It's a very minor difference, but it's the biggest one to actually know how much it's hurt you if you were to catch a big, big gap down, which is in that inevitable.
这将发生在所有300人身上 超过325人 现在在这里 It's going to happen to all 300, more than 325 of you, uh, that are here right now.
这种情况偶尔会发生 但你需要知道你的数字 It's going to happen once in a while, but you need to know your numbers.
所以你才恢复得这么快 棕色的 很快 That's how you recovered quick, uh, brown till be quickly.
是的 我们在这里讨论的更多的是与新闻相关的差距 Yeah. And what we're touching on here is more about news related gap downs.
我们将在最后讨论收益 这些 这些有很大的不同 We'll cover earnings at the end, and those, those are much different.
你应该预料到这一切 提前想好 当你进行盈利时你所承担的风险这将讨论第一阶段到期交易者应该如何处理这些风险 You should anticipate all that. Think ahead of time, the risk that you're taking when you're going through earnings that will discuss how Stage one due trader should deal with those.
但是 是的 这是可能发生的出乎意料的新闻类型的事件 But yeah, this is more out of the blue news type events that can happen.
有了这些 我们继续往下看 So with that, let's keep on going here.
有很多掩护 现在我们来谈谈管理止损 Got lots cover. So now it's touch on manging stop loss.
所以设置初始止损 So setting the initial stop loss.
我们在入门战术武器艺术中提到了这一点 但你知道 再次强调这一点是很好的 We mentioned this in in the entry tactics weapon art, but it's good to, you know, re emphasize it.
想想这个你的进入策略哪里失败了 Think about this Where does your entry tactic fail?
我们讨论过 你知道 制定计划 而不是说 哦 它是它坏了 We talked about, you know, having that plan set and not saying, oh, it's it's broken.
越高越低 现在我要用10天移动平均线 The higher low. Now I'm going to use the ten day moving average.
现在我 哦 它坏了 我要用21m-a Now I'm, oh, it's broken that I'm going to use the 21 M-A.
啊 现在 只是底部 Ah, now, just the bottom of the base.
如果还在这上面 我就不走 If it stays above that, I'll stay in.
你想选择一条底线并坚持下去吗 You want to pick a line in the sand and stick with it?
听听价格走势 听听市场结构本身 Listen to the price action and listen to the the market structure itself.
如果你在突破时进场 你预计它会向上移动 If you enter on a breakout, you're anticipating that it moves to the upside.
如果它通过价格走势显示它没有这样做 它触及了你的底线 你应该退出 If it shows through price action that it doesn't do that, that it hits your line in the sand, and you should exit.
就这么简单 等待下一个设置 It's as simple as that, and wait for the next setup.
嗯 而且 你知道 只是再确认一下 Um. And also, you know, just reconfirming this.
保持技术含量 这是你的首要辩护 Keep it technological. That's your number one defense.
我想下一张幻灯上会讲到更多 And I think I've got more about that on on the next slide.
只是再次强调泰坦逻辑止损 Just re emphasizing Titan logical stop losses here.
呃 这是同样的尺寸 Uh, this is the same size.
最后五小时 但太重要了 我觉得我们应该再放一遍 Last five an hour. But so important, I thought we should show it again.
进场策略必须考虑到紧凑和合理的止损 Entry tactics must allow for tight and logical stop.
如果他们不这样做 这就不是一个有效的进入策略 If they don't, it's not a valid entry tactic.
逻辑的意思是违反 Logical means a violation
提示设置或进入策略失败 您应该退出 with signal that the setup or entry tactic has failed, and you should exits.
呃 收紧意味着止损将损失限制在几个百分点以内 理想情况下 Uh? Tight means the stop will limit losses to just a few percentage points, ideally.
如果你不能设置这样的停止 那就没有设置 And if you can't set such a stop, there isn't a set up
或者进入策略 等待 你必须等待价格走势形成你想要的形式 or entry tactic. Wait. You have to wait for the price action to form how you would like it to form.
你必须等到大牌发完 你才能看到所有的牌 然后你才能做出决定 You've got to wait for the boger hand to be dealt where you can see all the cards, and then you can make a decision.
所以我认为这非常重要 So I think that's really important.
罗斯是一个在我脑海中强调过很多次的人 他对所有的成员都强调过 And Ross Is is someone who's really emphasized this, uh, a lot in my head and and to all the trail line members.
下一张 对吧 这只是在强调这一点 So I next slide, right? And this is just emphasizing this.
你知道 如果你的预期是它从那个入口点正移动到你的止损点 那就退出并等待 You know, if your expectation is that it moves positively from that entry point and moves to your stop, just exit and wait.
就是这样 对吧 进入到广告中 That's it, right? Into the ad with with titological stops.
不 我是说 如果你错了 你就错了 你就错了 No, I mean, if you're wrong, you're wrong, you're wrong.
你只需要倾听 And you just have to listen.
如果你错了 你就错了 你就错了 And if you're wrong, you're wrong, you're wrong.
这很简单 好吧 这是一条推特 We'll set that's easy. Well, that's a tweet, right there.
所以所以如果印记告诉你 而你不听 那只是你太自负了 你需要停止 So so if the Mark is telling you and you won't listen, it just you have a ego and you need to stop, uh.
这对我来说很容易 对别人来说很难 但如果你想成功 你就必须这样做 It's very easy for me to say, and it's very hard for people to do, but you have to do it if you want to be successful.
对吧 啊 如果你承受了一连串的损失 你已经承受了一连串的损失 而你没有在你为自己设定的适当点退出 你那天真的对自己不诚实 Right? Ah? If you take a string of losses, and you have taken the string of losses, and you haven't exited at proper points that you set forth for yourself, You're really dishonest to yourself at the other day.
如果你从这个角度来考虑 你是在说你要做些什么 If you think of it from you know, from that perspective, you're saying you're going to do something.
你说 当你买入一只股票时 如果它出现这种情况 你就会退出 You're saying when you enter a stock that you will exit if it does this.
然后你想出了一个非常有创意的 就像 一个更好的词废话故事 当它到达你的终点时 你只是在一天结束时对自己不诚实 对吗 And then you come up with a very creative, uh, just for like, a better word bullshit story, uh, when it hits your stop, you're just dishonest to yourself at the end of day, right?
所以不要这样做 如果这是你真正能赚钱的唯一方法 那就是去听这个 So don't do that. It it's the only way you can really be profitable is to go and, you know, listen to this.
听听你自己 在一天结束的时候 你会说 也许很多交易者会想 嘿 这是我的进场点 这是我的止损点 Listen to yourself, at the end of day, you're saying, you maybe a lot of traders do think, hey, this is my entry, this is my stop.
如果是这样的话 他们有一个完整的 可靠的计划 当要执行这个计划时 他们不会听 因为现在他们他们的情绪 他们的情绪接管了 他们不想听市场告诉他们的 And if this does this, and they have a whole, you know, solid plan, and when it comes to executing that plan, they won't listen, because now they their emotions, their emotions take over, and they don't want to listen to what the market is telling them.
所以你必须听从市场的意见 So you have to listen to the market.
你得听清楚自己在说什么 You have to listen to what you're saying for yourself.
我认为你会 你知道 你只需要做这两件事对我们在Bedner讲的一到三件事有一些客观的认识 如果这是建立在那之上的 而女性是四件左右 And, uh, I think you'll be, you know, you just do those two things and have some objective on what we spoke about in Bedner one to three, if this is building upon that, and women are four or so.
是的 所以调整止损 管理你的止损 何时向上移动 等等 Yep. So adjusting stop losses, you know, manging your stop loss, when should you move it up and all this.
因此 随着交易的进展 你希望提高止损点 这样你就降低了整体风险 So you want to raise stops as the trade makes progress for you, so that you're lowering your overall risk.
并将涉及具体的指导方针 你知道 何时以及如何根据你在旅途中的位置来做这件事 And will touch on specific guidelines, you know, for when and how to do this based on where you are in your journey.
但重要的是不要阻止交易 Um, but it's important to not choke off the trade.
嗯 你要给股票喘息的空间 这样它才能在成交量波动中度过正常价格 Um. You want to give the stock room to breathe so it can go through normal price in volume fluctuations.
你可以用ACR来确定这个 You can use ACR to kind of determine this.
但你要确保给它足够的空间吗 But you want to make sure that you give it enough room?