好吧 我刚开始录音 对不起 伙计们 Okay, I just started recordings. Sorry, guys.
对于那些正在看这个回放的人 我实际上忘记录了 所以我将在第二秒回顾一下我们复习过的内容 For those you that are watching a replay of this, I actually forgot to record, so I'm going to recap in just a 2nd what we went over.
但我不想指出一件事 你知道 你可能在这里受到了鞭笞 也许你弹得不完美 还有 But I don't want to point out one thing that, um, you know, you may be getting whipped around here, and maybe you didn't play it perfectly, and
或者你没有像我们建议的那样 跟随我的思路 在实力和财务风险的基础上卖出 or maybe you didn't, you know, follow my lead and sell into the strength and and financial risk as we suggested.
但这里的问题是 这个行动非常困难 并没有让它变得那么容易 就像我们过去看到的很多次一样 当调整 你知道 市场调整 然后就像他们敲响了一个钟 底部的渔夫得到了奖励 然后砰的一声 又开始了比赛 But here's the thing this action of being very difficult here, and not making it so easy to just get right back on board, like we've seen so many times in the past, where the corrections, you know, the market corrects, and then it's almost like they ring a bell, and the bottom fishers get a rewarded, and bang, are off to the races again.
这是在海底捕鱼的真正机会 This is the time where the bottom fishers are really gonna get it.
我是说 他们已经这么做了 当然 I mean, they already have. Of course.
你知道 我们已经了解了股票的行情 You know, we, we've gotten where stocks are.
镇近85% 90% 你知道 一些蓝筹股甚至下跌了4550% 60% Town near 85, 90 %. You know, some of the bluest of blue chips are even down 4550, 60 %.
所以肯定 但我可以向你保证 海底钓鱼还是有的 So certainly. But I can assure you there's still bottom fishing out there.
他们还在想 你知道吗 还能更糟吗 They're still thinking, you know what, how much worse can it get?
事情是这样的这是件好事 And here's the thing This is a good thing.
这是一件好事 只要你不被卷入其中 不让自己受到太多伤害 This is a good thing as long as you're not getting caught in it and getting yourself cut up too much.
这就是我们想要的 我们希望市场变得更加困难 淘汰掉所有的弱者淘汰掉所有的 你知道 那些抄底者和买家 This is what we want. We want the market to be so difficult, and to weed out all those those weak hands and weed out all the, all the, uh um, you know, the bottom fishers and those buyers.
这是一个很好的低点 你就有了一个向前发展的好机会 And this is where you put in a really good low, and you get a great opportunity going forward.
但这在短期内是痛苦的 甚至可能在中期也是如此 But it is painful in in the short term, and maybe even in the intermediate term.
再一次 你要正确看待 Um, again, you put into perspective.
我们总是要把事情看得更长远 We always got to put things into perspective.
这是我们的手机信号 对吧 Here's our cell signal up here, right?
好吧 听着 每次反弹都卖得很好 一直开到200天 Okay, look, each rally sold, sold, and a nice ride to the 200 day.
还记得我们200天的时候 我说 这是一个完美的机会 你知道你会团结起来 Remember when we roused it 200 day, I said, this is a perfect opportunity where, you know you're gonna rally up.
好像是98年 然后回到新的低点 It was like, uh, 98. And then back to new lowes.
好吧 现在你又振作起来了 不 1213 14天跌出低点 连50天都没涨到 Well, now you've rallied again. No, 1213, 14 days off the low, not even up to the 50 day.
你知道 这不是没有任何东西告诉你市场已经触底了 You know, this is not there's nothing here telling you that the market is bottom.
这是有说服力的 除了我们有股票 所以我们玩那些股票 This is convincing, except we had stock setting up, so we play those stocks.
如果他们的表现很好 我们就会增加我们的投资 这就能告诉我们其他股票的情况 If they work great, then we increase our exposure, and that's what will tell us The other stocks really told the story here.
我的意思是 我们获得了交易的反弹 但你没有得到牵引力 你知道 它没有持续下去 你没有下跌 然后事情开始破裂 这就是结束 I mean, we got that trading rally, but you just didn't get the traction, you know, it didn't stay, you didn't get the fall through, and then things started cracking, and that was the end of it.
好吧 那就那就正好相反 Well, that's that's gonna be just the opposite.
当市场真正触底时 情况会正好相反 When the market actually bottoms, it's gonna be the opposite.
你会说 我没有足够的钱买所有这些股票 我希望我没有卖掉那些我卖掉的股票 You're gonna be going, I don't have enough money to buy all these stocks, and I wish I hadn't sold those names that I sold.
它会有一种完全不同的感觉 And it's going to have a whole different feeling to it.
但这里的问题是 当你看一些像RKK的arcas有几次反弹 你知道 这里的一次反弹大约是50% 对吧 But the thing here is that when you look at even something like a RKK arcas had several rallies, you know, one rally here was about 50 %, right?
哦 不 对不起 大约是40% 37%到40% Oh no, I'm sorry, it is about 40 %, 37 to 40 %.
不过 这是一次不错的反弹 在最近的一次不错的反弹中 几乎比低点低了40% So a good rally, though, almost 40% off the lows in a decent rally recently.
但是从长远来看 这些都是杂音 But look put into perspective. These are blips.
这些是图表上的小光点 These are little blips on the chart.
没有任何迹象表明底部已经形成 There's nothing that indicates that a bottom has been formed.
有很多人 有很多钱投入到心脏基金中 但这些和这些愚蠢的人认为它不能更低 There's a lot of people, there's a lot of money going into the heart funds, but these with these clueless people who think that it can't go lower.
已经下降了这么多 还能下降多少 And it's gone down this much, how much lower can it go?
明显吗 明显吗 它可以降得更低 Substantially? Substantially? It could go substantially lower.
嗯 嗯 你知道 我们不知道 Uh, um. You know, we don't know.
我们只是不知道 但我们知道的是 这些都是纯粹的市场反弹 We just don't know. But we know one thing that these are, these are bare market rallies.
嗯 现在 把车停下 想停车吗 Um. Now, just pull up. Want to pull up?
这就是我说的 用热手 BBT This is what I was talking about, going with the hot hand.
现在 我把它卖了 你知道 我可以拿到35-40%的利润任何时候都可以 10-15天 Now, I sold this, and I'm, you know, I'll take up 35, 40% profit any time and ten or 15 days.
但最重要的是 你看 它支撑得有多好 But the bottom line is, look how well this is holding up.
你看 我的手还是很热的 See, the hot hand is still running hot here.
有些人可能不相信 认为周期性石油不能成为领导者 但它们是 Um and And some people may discount and think that the cyclicals or the oils can't be leaders, but they are.
他们是 这是 这是现在的领导领域 They are. This is, this is a leadership area right now.
所以在某些领域是可以赚钱的 但是当你必须射击的时候 当你必须用步枪射击而不是长枪射击的时候 你必须得到一个确切的群体 这个群体中确切的股票 这是非常困难的 So there there is money to be made in certain areas, but when it's when you have to shot, when you have to rifle shot instead of shotgunning, and you have to get the exact group, the exact stock in the group, it's very difficult.
即使是像我这样做了40年的人 这是一个非常困难的环境 除非你只是做短期交易 因为你不知道哪些领域会失败 当它们失败时 它们会突然失败 It's very though, even for someone like myself has been doing this for 40 years, this is a very difficult environment, except if you're just short term trading, because you just don't know which areas are going to fail, and when they do, they fail abruptly.
取较小收益的问题是你只取5%或10%的收益 甚至没有12%或15%的收益 And the problem with taking the smaller gains is that you take a five or 10% gain, no even a twelve or 15% gain.
好吧 当情况好转 你只有那么少量的钱 你开始像这样移动 它就像瞬间一样消失了 Well, when things turn around and you only have that small amount again, and you start getting moves like this, it just gets wiped out like instantaneously.
这就是为什么风险必须非常非常紧密地联系在一起 因为波动率就是回报不能抵消波动率 And that's why the risk has to be really, really tight in relation, because the volatility is is just that the reward doesn't pay for the volatility.
对那些我之前没有录过的人 我也简单回顾一下 UM So just to recap, too, for those who um that I didn't record before.
我讲过A-MPH值当然 这是非常不正常的行为 I talked about how A-M PH of course, this is very abnormal action.
L-R-N 非常不正常 嗯 同样的 这两个都很好 从低骗开始 在枢轴上建立跟随 L-R-N, very abnormal action here. Um Again, both worked great from the low cheat set up the follow on pivots.
如果市场是健康的 And if the market's healthy,
这些跟随枢轴会起作用的 these follow on pivots are going to work.
在很多情况下 你不会遇到这种大的 大的户外日和大的地下日 大的交易量 You're not going to get these big, giant outside days and and giant down days here, on big volume, in many cases.
A-R-I-S是另一个非常不正常的 直到昨天 今天早上我还在想 哇 这个在这里真的非常非常好 嗯 A-R-I-S is another one where, um, very abnormal, even up until yesterday, and this morning I was thinking, wow, this is really holding up quite quite good here, um.
我仍然 你知道 呃嗯 希望我们能在这里看到一些名字 这只是 你知道 也许是这些名字的一个快速轮换 或者 或者 你知道 我们会看到一个轮换和一些保留 但是 他们似乎又重新进入了一切 And I was still, you know, uh um, hopeful that we would see some names hold up here, and that this was just, you know, maybe a quick rotation out of some of these names, or or, or, you know, we would see a rotation and some hold But again, they're kind of getting into everything again.
这确实是市场仍处于困境的迹象 And this is really an indication of of a market that is still in trouble here.
当然可以 还有一个在这里 你知道的 就这么放弃了 Ellen T-H-A-I-R Of course. Another one here, where, you know, just gave it all up.
这仍然可以工作 这仍然是一个基地 This still can work. This is still in a base.
你看 这基本上是一个轴心失效了 这里没有什么轴心 See, this is basically a pivot failure here, and there wasn't much of a pivot here.
这仍然是正常的 虽然可能需要时间来修复 我们需要在这里建立一个枢轴 So again, this is still somewhat normal, although it's going to take time to repair this, probably, and we'll need to build a pivot here.
一些地区仍在基地中 所以我不认为这是完全不祥的 Some areas are still holding up in bases, so I don't think it's totally ominous.
但同样的 你必须跟随市场 你必须止损 如果你没有资金支持你的风险 你可能会陷入困境 But again, certainly you've got to been with the market here, and you've got to take your stops and, uh, if you haven't financed your risk, you may be getting under water.
但是不管你做什么 不要在这里装可爱 然后说 哦 好吧 等它回来我就卖了 But don't do not, whatever you do, don't try to get cute here and go, oh, well, I'll sell when it comes back.
或者 你知道的 我做错了 但下次我会做对的 Or, um, you know, I didn't do it right, but I'll do it right next time.
这次我要守住 希望能报复你 This time I'm gonna hold and, you know, hope to get even.
你必须在这些站点停车 You've got to take those stops.
如果你犯了一个错误 让自己陷入麻烦 不要犯加重错误的错误 让自己陷入更多的麻烦 If you've made a mistake and you've got yourself in trouble, don't make the mistake of compounding the mistake and getting in more trouble.
从中吸取教训 改进你的决策能力 Learn from it. Improve your decision making.
制定一个更好的计划 下次做得不一样 Make a better plan and do it different next time.
这是关键 好吧 别只是别在这冒险 That's the key. All right, don't just don't play with risk here.
我们不知道会发生什么 We don't know what's gonna happen.
让我们看看还有什么 马克吗 Um, let's see what else. Mark Anything?
是吗 呃 你对现金完全麻木了 差不多吧 Are you? Uh, you completely knocked out to cash, pretty much?
我只会添加 你知道的 做的 你是展示柜图表或或Anastic图表 你知道 我认为我们停止平台上的弧 呃 你知道 早在9月 8月 我看着这些老家伙交易的研究只是一个 你知道 好的方面的教训 我认为超过90%都低于我们停止 说 交易在过去六到九个月 I-I would just add, you know, doing the, you were showing the ark chart or or the Anastic chart, you know, I-I think we stopped out of ARC on the platform, uh, you know, back in September, august, I was looking at a study of some of these old trades guys in just for a, you know, good object lesson in terms of, I think over 90% of them are below where our stops were, say, trades in the last six to nine months.
告诉你 告诉你我们所处的环境的类型 但是有时候你会觉得停下来很愚蠢或很糟糕 有些人在那之前就被完全摧毁了 2你知道 当每个人都受够了 然后就会有一个杰出的机会 Tells you, tells you the type of environment we're in, but sometimes you feel dumb or feel bad taking stops, and there are people out there just absolutely getting destroyed to marks earlier .2 You know, it's when everybody's had enough that then there's just going to be an outstanding opportunity.
关键是 你知道 不要让自己被分了你会有一个 你会有一个非常棒的身材 我个人认为 The key is just, you know, keep keep yourself from from getting carved up and and you're gonna have a really, you're gonna be in really great shape, I personally think.
如果你想知道我的观点 我也在做股票交易 我的观点并不决定我的交易 And if you want my opinion, and I again, I trade on the the stocks, and my opinion isn't, doesn't dictate my trading.
但是 嗯 我做这个已经很长时间了 所以我对市场上发生的事情有很好的感觉 我通常会相对接近更大的图景 But, um, I've been doing this a long time, so I do have a pretty good feel for what happens in the market, and I usually get relatively close on the bigger picture.
嗯 我认为如果我们真的能从现在的价格再降很多 甚至不会再降那么多 如果我们开始卖一些球 直到他捡起来 Um, I think if we do come down much more from here, and even not even that much more, if we just start selling off a bit ball till he picks up.
我想你会看到你从未见过的黑暗 I think you're going to see barishness like you've never seen.
我的意思是 它会变得像它在 哦 八 哦 三 嗯 真的 I mean, it's going to get as barish as it was probably in, oh, eight, oh three, um, real.
因为我们已经很尴尬了 我看到它在快速发展 人们现在在说 我们刚刚开始 今天那个人在推特上说 我们刚刚开始一个空市场 Because we're already very embarrassed. And I see it turning fast, where people are now saying, we're just starting, the guy tweeted today, we're just starting a bare market.
我们纳斯达克指数下跌了30% 标准普尔指数下跌了20% You know, we're down 30% on the Nasdaq, 20% on the S&P.
唯一的方法是 我们刚刚开始了一个裸市 就好像我们正在进入一个长期熊市 然后有一个 有一个衰退 可能是一个大衰退 因为事实是 标准普尔指数下跌20%的可能性是没有衰退的 我们是 The only way that we just started a bare market as if we're going into a secular bear market, And there's a and there's a recession, and probably a big recession, because the fact is, is that the likelihood is that down 20% of the S&P without a recession, we are.
我们接近低点了 所以说 如果我们没有经济衰退 如果没有 从这里开始的任何贷款都可能是最后一次 we're near the lows. So with that said, if we don't get a recession, big if um, any downlaid from here would probably be the last.
我现在对市场情绪的看法 我认为我们现在的情绪好得多 这可能会让一些人在市场上站稳脚跟 And the way that I see sentiment right now, I think we get so much better sentiment that it would it would probably, uh, put someone of a floor on the market.
也就是说 87年的股灾也是如此 市场翻了个底 当它最终崩溃时 这是最后一段 市场下面有个底 就在这里 Now, with that said, you could say the same thing about the crash of 87, where in a market rolled over, and then when it finally crashed, that was the last leg down, and there was a floor beneath the market, because it, you know, right there.
很快就稳定下来了 但一天之内股价就下跌了22% 拖累了股市 It stabilized very quickly. But that was 22% in one day, and took stocks down.
所以 你知道 这并不意味着你不能崩溃 你不能闪电崩盘 你不能 你知道 加速下降 So so again, you know, it doesn't mean that you can't get a meltdown, you can't get a flash crash, you can't get, you know, an acceleration to the downside.
这太残忍了 但我认为 这也并不意味着我们不能在很长一段时间内建立一个诱饵 建立一个底部 我们不能以a-v的方式从低谷中走出来 That is absolutely brutal. But I-I think that, and it does also doesn't mean that we can't go for an extended period of time and build a bait, build a bottom, that we don't just come right off the lows here in A-V fashion.
这可能需要时间 但这是我最喜欢的情况 如果这需要时间 我们建了一个海湾 就像1990年那样 因为你可以买很多股票 It could take time, but that would be my favorite scenario, if it just took time and we built a bay, sort of like 1990, because you can get a lot of stocks
那做得好 就像我们刚才看到的 很多股票爆发了 that do well, just like we just saw, a lot of stocks broke out.
现在 当然 我们没有跟进其中的一些 但这种情况可能会再次发生 即使市场没有触底 或者它让触底变得缓慢 它并没有形成一个我们真正开始移动的有效触底 And now, of course, we're not getting the follow through on some of those, but that scenario may reimmerge, even though the market doesn't make its bottom, or it makes it slow, and it doesn't put in a of an effective bottom where we really start moving.
说真的 至少从指数来看是这样 但你会得到很多股票托盘 最后的股票想法 uh, in earnest, at least from the indexes are are concerned, but you get a lot of stock trays, last stock ideas out.
同时也要关注中小盘最近开始跑赢大盘的时期 Also keep an eye on the small and mid cap period started to outperform recently.
我认为 大型股已经成为领头羊了 And mega caps, I think, are done as far as being the leaders.
我认为合理的做法是转向中小盘股 它们的表现不佳已经很久很久了 And I think the logical area is to move to maybe the mid and small caps that have been underperforming for a long, long, long time.
他们是 他们是非常应得的 没有人 没有人想知道关于他们的任何事情 没有人期望它 And they are, they are very due, and nobody, nobody wants to know anything about them, and nobody expects it.
所以我会 我会在小的 中帽区非常警惕 那是我待过的地方 花很多时间仔细观察 嗯 那说了什么 Um, so I-I would, I would be very vigilant in the small, mid cap area, that's where I've been, spend a lot of time looking carefully, um, what that said?
我是说 让我看看 I mean, um, let me see.
我知道我不是真的要回答问题 但我只是想去这里聊天 I know I wasn't going to really take questions, but I just want to go here and chat.
我要讲几个 I'm going to go over a few.
你如何建会买股票 How do you build the conference to buy a stock?
像B-L-T一样 在如此低迷的一天 我只是看着它开盘价 从来没有扣动过扳机 Be like as B-L-T? On such a down day, I was looking at it at the open and never pulled a trigger.
好吧 我们说的是今天吗 Okay, are we talking about today?
B-L-T-E 让我看看 是的 我不知道 B-L-T-E. Let me see. Yeah, I don't know.
我不知道你在说什么 I don't know what the heck you're talking about here.
你知道我们为什么要买B-L-T-E加长版 Um, you know why we would buy B-L-T-E here extended.
我们把B-L-T-E放在维勒的后面 我记得是在6月3号 We we put B-L-T-E on Viler back here, I believe it was on on june 3.
然后它裂开了 如果没有价差 我就会进行交易 And then it gapped. I would have been trading this if it didn't gap.
马克和我都认为它有潜力 但它有差距 做得很好 Mark and I were both looking at it as a potential, but it gapped, and it's done great.
所以我也不知道我是说 我没有信心在这里买下贝蒂 Um, so I-I don't know. I mean, I-I would never have the confidence to buy Beelty up here.
所以 我的意思是 你可以整天看后见之明 说 你应该 但你不应该 嗯 我从3月22日以来一直很晚 So, I mean, you could look at hindsight all day long and say, you should have, but you shouldn't have, um, I've been very late since March 22.
5月25日增加了一些 在6月1日 停在了一堆名字上 Increased some on may 25. On june 1, stopped out on bunch of names.
以前的微薄利润不足以弥补小小的损失 The little profits previously made did not cover the small losses.
6月4日 持仓占我总资本的20% On june 4, took positions for 20% of my total capital.
为什么 问号 我不知道那是什么意思 Why? Question mark. I don't know what that means.
用你的手段来换取牵引力 有人建议增加曝光率 Uh, trade you had in place for getting traction, and it was suggested to increase some exposure.
在那之前我没有赚到钱 也没有得到我的职位 I did not make any money until then, nor my position.
粉笔 这很长 有问题吗 Chalk. This is very long. Is there a question here?
如果可以的话 请查看我的分析 Um, well, please check my analytics if you can.
我们不检查人们的分析 所以我我们不会去检查你的分析 所以我不能这么做 We don't check people's analytics. Um, so I we don't go and check your analytics, so I can't do that.
我们不会给你具体的建议 We're not going to give specific advice for you.
我们不会去检查人们的隐私和他们的分析 And we don't go and check people's privacy and check their analytics.
嗯 让我想想 像今天这样的日子 有几个空位接近止损点 你会考虑以我们的名字开始交易吗 Um. let's see, on a day like today, where a handful of open positions are close to but not hitting stops, would you consider initiating positions in our names?
不 你是说 现在车站附近车已经停了 你就去买 No, you're saying, go and buy them now that they've come down near the stops?
绝对不是 马克 这是一件 你知道的 那些不喜欢我们做事的方式 或者不擅长我们的策略的人 你能从逻辑上思考 比如 嗯 你知道 他们停下来 袜子拉回来了 Absolutely not. Mark. This is something that, you know, someone who doesn't really no the way we do things, or isn't skilled in in our strategy, would you think logically, like, um, you know, they stopped, socks have pulled back.
他们回到了进化者那里 They pulled back to the breakout.
有时我们要做的就是回到进化者 And there's times where we do by pull back to the breakout.
但是你觉得我们做这种事情的时间有什么不同 But what would you, what would you say the differences between the times that we would do something like that?
或者现在试着打个比方 Or And now try to call with a good analogy.
你知道 这有点像 你知道 如果如果战场看起来很开阔 然后你开始穿过它 然后你开始受到猛烈的攻击 You know, it's sort of like, uh, you know, if the if the field looks wide open and uh, and you start moving across it, and you start taking heavy fire.
你想继续前进吗 Do you want to keep advancing?
不管你在球场的哪个位置 Regardless of where you are in position on the field?
我的意思是 市场出现回落是因为整个市场都处于压力之下 I'm saying the fact that anything's pulling back is because the entire market's under pressure.
当我们买入回调时 是因为它是有序的 When we buy a pullback, it's because it's orderly.
市场还没有分配 我们没有看到停止撞击 The market isn't under distribution. We're not seeing stops getting hit.
我是说 你听马克说过多少次 经常回答问题 I mean, how many times have you heard Marker myself, you know, saying, often do an answer?
这要看事情进展如何了 Well, it depends how it's going.
意思是我们自己的投资组合 我怀疑现在在这个电话里的任何人如果做多的话都赚不到钱 Meaning in our own portfolio. I doubt anybody on this call is making money today if they're long.
那么 你为什么要在任何回调的时候买入呢 So why would you be buying any pullbacks to anything?
你在你在顺应市场 Uh, you're you're bending with the market.
意思是当你感到压力时 你不会把风险加倍 Means when you're feeling pressure, you don't start doubling down on risk.
你要从另一个角度考虑 You want to think the other way.
紧缩的风险 我不知道 我是这么想的 你他们会填补任何漏洞 Tightening risk. I-I don't know if I mean, that's how I think about it, how you they'll fill in any holes.
我有女士 马克 是的 现在 他现在是什么 I MS. there. Mark Yeah. Now, what is he Now?
他连续12年 每年只做50%的生意 He's only done like, you know, 50% a year for twelve years straight.
我会听 我会听马克·里奇的 然后去做另一种我思考这个问题的方式 我只是和布兰登在我们的办公室里进行这个对话 I would listen, I would listen to Mark Richie and do it Another another way I'm thinking about this, I was just to have this conversation with Brandon in our office.
也就是说 如果我在某个时候告诉你 It's to say, look, if I told you in some point in the
接下来的12个月 你有机会把钱翻倍 但你不知道什么时候 next twelve months, you had a chance to double your money, but you didn't know when, uh,
你所要做的就是每天出现 投入工作然后继续试水 all you had to do was show up every day, put in the work and and and continue to test the waters.
我就是这么想的 That's kind of how I'm thinking about things.
我不知道什么时候 I don't know when it things are
但我知道当它转变时 这将是一个非凡的机会 going to turn, but I know when it does, there's going to be a phenomenal opportunity.
它值这个重量吗 我绝对 Is it worth the weight? I'm absolutely.
就算六个月后 情况也会好很多 It doesn't matter if it's in six months, it will be that much better.
就像你之前说的 马克 我认为如果我们再等六个月 机会会更大 To your point earlier, mark, I think if we have to wait another six months, the opportunity will be even greater.
噢 是的 绝对的 我们不再停留在地下 Oh yeah. Absolutely. No longer we stay down.
回调越大 你就越尴尬 牛市就越大 我们以后的机会就越大 The bigger the correction, the more embarrassness you you have, the bigger the bull market, and the better opportunity we have later.
绝对的 我 你知道的 这些日子过去了 我只是 记录 计时 数着日子直到我得到那个大机会 Absolutely. I-I, you know, as these days go by, I just uh, mark and time and and count in the days until I get that big opportunity.
事实上 这些短暂的 活生生的回调会带来更糟糕的后果 And as a matter of fact, these short, live pullbacks with a worse thing.
他们只是保持着状态 这就是我去年发的推特 向所有人解释说 这只是让没有经验的一代投资者蒙受巨大损失 因为他们认为他们可以在回调时买入 They just kept conditioning. And this is what I tweeted all year last year and explained to everybody that it were just setting up a generation of inexperienced investors to have giant losses because they think they could just buy the pullbacks.
现在你说 当它最终失败时 你有了信心 就像捕蝇草一样 Now you're saying, when that, when that finally fails, and you get that confidence, it's like a Venus fly trap.
它会把你吸进去 最后 当你觉得安全了 你就你就完了 It sucks you in. And finally, when you think it's safe, you're you're done.
你完成了 然后你就崩溃了 你的资金减少了 你要么被彻底摧毁了 要么要花很多钱才能恢复到原来的水平这就会破坏你的长期回报 You're finished. And you and you blow up, and you have such a draw down that you either are completely decimated, or it would take so much to get back to even that it it just destroys your long term return.
嗯 你们很多人还没有信心 Um. And a lot of you guys want of the confidence for that yet.
我 我以前也在同一个地方 And I'm, I used to be in that same spot.
我告诉你 花时间 保持耐心 然后学习如何做到这一点是值得的 因为机会是巨大的 I'm telling you it's it's worth putting in the time, staying patient and then learning how to do this, because the opportunities are enormous.
如果你能够在美术网页开始时在平台上设置通知将会很有帮助 It would be helpful if you could set a notification on the platform when a web in art is starting.
你是说 提前告诉你 准确的时间是不够的 You mean, telling you ahead of time, the exact time is not good enough.
我是说 好吧 我不知道 我相信很多人都需要它 I mean, okay, I don't. I'm sure that really, that is, a lot of people need that.
但是你可以考虑一下 嗯 你认为市场可能只是让你知道 我们过去是这样做的 到目前为止人们抱怨 But can consider that, um, do you think the market could be just to let you know, we used to do that and people complain so far.
现在我们不能让所有人都满意 Now we just can't satisfy everybody.
人们过去常常抱怨说 你不需要发那么多帖子 告诉我们你已经告诉我们了 People used to complain and say, you know, you don't have to do all these posts and just tell us you already told us.
现在人们在说 再告诉我一次 我很抱歉 伙计们 我们不能让每个人都开心 Now people are saying, tell me again, you know, so I'm sorry, guys, but we can't make everybody happy.
好 嗯 我为一个人做的事情 其他人会抱怨 我们试着做大多数人要求的事情 Okay, um? What I do for one person, other people complain, and we try to just do what the majority are asking for.
所以 这是 这是我们唯一能做的 So, um, that's, that's the only way we can do it.
你知道 你们问我 比如 你知道 预测 你认为市场会贴现与中国的战争 诸如此类的事情吗 And, you know, you guys asking me for, like, you know, forecast, do you think the market could be discounting War with China, things like that?
当然 当然 它可以折现任何东西 Sure, of course. It could be discounting anything.
我知道吗 绝对不是 我不知道 Do I know? Absolutely not. I have no idea.
我没有水晶球 好的 嗯 I have no crystal ball. Okay, um.
我有一个市场魔术 但它没有我有一个水晶球 但它不能 它不能工作 不能做任何事情 I have a market Wizard, but it's without I have a crystal ball, but it doesn't, it doesn't work, doesn't do anything.
只是一块玻璃 我的一个朋友买给我的 Just a piece of glass. A friend of mine got it for me.
所以 所以 这就是为什么我只是个凡人 Um, so, so, uh, it's why I am a mere mortal.
我也得像你一样使用停车 I have to use stops just like you.
我也得像你一样 被人忽悠 为地位而奋斗 I have to get whipped around and jockey for position just like you.
我只是碰巧做了很长一段时间 而且我比那些刚开始做的人稍微在行一点 Um, I just happen to be doing it for a long time, and I'm a little bit better at it than someone who's just started.
只是想分享多少MPS帮助我学习留在市场 Just want to share how much MPS help me to learn stay in the market.
好了 好了 我只是 我很感激 但我不会去看那些评论 Okay, great. I'm I'm just gonna, I appreciate that, but I'm not going to read the comments.
看这里 如果哦 O-FEs清除了主元 他今天可能就会在这里站位了 Um, see here, if oh O-F Es clears the pivot, he'd possibly taken a position in it today.
呃 I-I-c-o-f-s 我一直在看 Uh? I-I-C-O-F-S, and I've been watching it.
嗯 答案绝对不是 Um, the answer is absolutely not.
我不会 我会的 当我们迎来第一次秋天 I would not. I would. When we get this kind of 1st fall.
如果你看一下平均数 我们得到了前后的分布天数 If you take a look at the averages, we got back to back distribution days.
昨天是一个相当大的分发日 Yesterday was a pretty large distribution day.
我们有一大堆股票被炒了 只是因为一大堆名字被停了下来 We had a whole bunch of stocks crack, just got stopped on a whole bunch of names.
嗯 有很多不正常的行为 如果你运行Monolert 你会看到大量的红色 各种各样的违规被击中 Um, lots of abnormal action. If you run Monolert, you'll see tons of red, all kinds of violations being hit.
所以我现在要做的最后一件事是 你知道 今天开始添加股票 So the last thing I'm going to be looking to do right now is to start, you know, getting adding stocks today.
每当这种情况发生时 我都会停下来 我想看看 市场是如何收盘的 Um, whenever this happens, I pause, and I want to see, what, how the market closes.
我们即将进入周末 进入周一 We're going into the weekend, going into a Monday.
你知道 周一不适合撞车 据你所知 这种事不常发生 You know, monday's no torres for crashes, as far as you know, doesn't happen often.
但是 但是 我不喜欢在这样糟糕的情况下过周末 But, uh, but, uh, I-I don't like to go over the weekend on a bad note like this.
不 我是说 我们现在跌了将近800点 So no, I mean, we're down almost 800 points right now.
今天绝对不会在这里买任何东西 Absolutely not going to buy anything here today.
嗯 让我们看看 在这个市场上 你的止损点似乎很宽 Um, let's see. The stops on your by seem very wide for this market.
你这么说 我是不是什么都没说 And for what you are saying, am I not saying something?
是啊 你没看到什么 你看不到很多东西 Yeah, you're not seeing something. You're not seeing several things.
第一 它们没有那么宽 Number one, they're not that wide.
最近止损率平均为4 5% The average stopp was 4.5% just recently.
没有那么宽 如果你认为4 5%是一个很大的停顿 嗯 我不知道你的什么 That is not that wide. If you think 4.5% is a wide stop, um, that I don't know what your what?
你对严格的停顿的想法是如此的 那不是真的 What your with your idea of a tight stop is so um, that that's not true.
第一个 是的 有一些更宽 但平均来说 大概是4 5% Number one and, and, yes, there are some that are wider, but on average, um, it's about four and a half percent.
一次大概有六个 Um, it was about six at one time.
另一件事是 这些都是最大值 So, but the other thing is, too, those are maximum
停止 那些是我们的 stops. Those that's our
最大的销售线 对吧 如果你的交易期限较短 或者你的手腕承受能力较低 你会想要收紧止损 maximum sell line, right? If you're trading them shorter term, or your wrist tolerance is lower, you know, you would want to tighten the stops.
除此之外 还有头寸大小调整 But on top of that, you have position sizing.
所以我们告诉你 你的投资不应该超过25%如果事情进展顺利的话50% 而只有75或100 So we're, you know, we're telling you that you shouldn't be any more than 25% invested 50 if things are going really well, and only 75 or a hundred.
如果你在这方面有经验 你会得到很多吸引 你会有利润 看 这些都是你真正得到的东西 人们似乎不会把注意力放在那句话上 If you are experienced at this and you're getting lots attraction, you have profits, see, those are the things that you got to real People just don't seem to to focus in on that statement.
他们现在关注的是买入列表中的买入和突破 而不是我们放入它的限定词和上下文 They focus in on the buys in the buy list by now and the breakouts, and don't focus on the qualifiers and the context that we're putting it in.
所以如果你听听这个背景 你会发现 自从11月22日以来 没有一个单独的时刻 我是布什 他们 你知道 从长远来看 在这里变得激进 So if you listen to that context, you'll see that there has not been one single solitary moment since november 22 that I have been Bush and said They, you know, get aggressive here on the long side.
如果A-R-I-S颠倒了 你今天会买吗 Um, would you buy A-R-I-S today if it reverses?
抱歉我笑了 但这真的是太歇斯底里了 Um, I'm sorry I laugh, but it really is hysterical.
但你会这么问我 对吧 Yet you would ask me that, right?
这在主元中完全被分解了 And this is completely broken down in the pivot here.
所以我不知道你在想什么 你是否认为我会在这个时候考虑买这只股票 So I don't know what you're thinking, if you're thinking that I would even consider buying this stock at this point.
这里有大量的活力 所以 老实说 你得回去了 Have tons of altility here. So, um, in all honesty, you need to go back.
你需要读我的书 你需要学习更多 密切关注我们在这里所做的事情 You need to read my books, you need to study more and to pay very close attention to what we're doing here.
因为如果你这么想 我担心你可能会尝试这些事情 你会给自己带来很多麻烦 Because if you're thinking this, I'm, I'm fearful that you might try some of these things and you're going to get yourself in a lot of trouble.
所以答案是否定的 这是一个非常艰难的市场 So the answer is no. It's very hard market.
油气股越繁荣 经济和通货膨胀就越严重 The more the oil gas stocks thrive, the worst the economy and the inflation.
我当然记得 我指出他们是如何完全反向移动的 当我们在市场顶部得到卖出信号时 从那个点开始 就是ExcelLeeuhuh爆发的时候 从那个点开始 他们一直是绝对的反向关系 That certainly I remember, I pointed out how they were moving completely inversely, that when we got the sell signal on the market topped, and from that point was right when the Excel Lee uh Um broke out and came from that pivot, and they've been an absolute inverse relationship since.
我认为这是一个很好的观点 So I think that's a very good point.
也许当我们有机会的时候 也许是一种油 或者 嗯 油的名字 那可能是一种迹象 你知道 底部 And probably when we get the break, maybe an oil or the, um, the oil names, that might be an indication, you know, of the bottom.
呃 现在 石油价格 从历史上看 当我们达到这个水平时 你会开始达到每桶100到35美元 100到40美元 这一直是一个我一直关注的价格 这个价格足够高了 它会导致经济衰退 它真的开始对事情产生影响 Uh? Now, oil prices, historically, when we get to this level, and you start getting to a hundred and a hundred and $35 a barrel, a hundred and $40 a barrel, that has always been a price that always got my attention, that it's a high enough price where um, it can cause a recession, and it really starts to weigh on things.
石油也取得了长足的进步 And and oil has come a long way also.
有人说 你知道 当石油翻倍时 或者因为其中的一定比例与经济衰退有关 Some have said, you know, when oil doubles, or because of a certain percentage of that has, uh, some um correlation with recessions.
真正的问题是经济衰退 The real question here is recession?
你知道 我们知道利率在上升 You know, we know the We know rates are going up.
我们知道 我们知道 特别是在今天的报告和最近的通胀报告之后 利率正在上升 We know. We know that, especially after today's report and the recent reports on inflation, rates are going up.
毫无疑问 美联储正在走紧缩路线 There is no doubt the Fed is on a tightening course.
但市场已经打了不少折扣 But the market has discounted quite a bit.
我的意思是 成长型股票的价格大幅下跌 I mean, you've got growth stocks completely decimated and blown up.
纳斯达克指数修正了30% 标准普尔指数下跌了20% You've got the Nasdaq that corrected 30% and the S-P down 20 %.
这是折扣 问题是 还有另一件事 So that's discounted. That the question is, and, and there's another thing too.
我们的节奏非常快 嗯 我 我说过 当我说到周期 紧缩周期 潮汐周期的速度 快速紧缩周期是负的 我们仍然在快速紧缩周期 所以我们知道所有这些 在市场上 贴现了很多 We're at a very fast pace, the the um, I-I talked about, when I talked about the, uh, the the cycle, the tightening cycle, the speed of the tiding cycle, that the fast tightening cycle is what's negative, and we're still in that fast tightening cycle, so we know all that, and in the market, has discounted a lot of that.
问题是 哦 我们要降低通胀 需要多快 需要对经济造成多大的损害才能做到这一点 The question is is that, oh, we're going to bring inflation down, how quickly, and how much damage is going to need to be done to the economy to do so?
或者是美联储失去了控制 他们无法降低通货膨胀 然后他们将不得不采取极端措施 大力打击 Or is is the fed loss control, and they can't get inflation down, and then they're going to have to really go way overboard and really hammer hammer.
他们将利率推高 实际上通过更高的利率创造了对股票的竞争 They kind of move rates up high and actually create competition for stocks with higher rates and all that.
这是一个非常基本的 经典的情况 It's a very basic, classic situation.
但由于通货膨胀 它在40年里都没有出现过 它看起来不同 但实际上并没有 But because of inflation, where it is, hasn't been in 40 years, it looks different, but it's not.
这一点都不不同 这是一个非常经典的标准 经济 利率 股票 债券等等的操作原理 It's not different at all. This is a very classic standard, um a motis operaende of this, of the economy, rates, stocks, bonds and so forth.
要看像P-R-C-T-T-D-W-E-E-A-R-L-P这样表现良好的股票 需要看眼睛 Eyes are something to take from looking at stocks that are holding up like P-R-C-T-T-D-W-E-E-A-R-L-P.
首先 你知道 很多人都是石油集团的 所以我是 是的 Well, 1st of all, you know, many are in the oil group, so I am, yes.
有一件事是石油集团是领导者 There's one thing to take is the oil group is is the leader.
这是一个强大的团体 嗯 And this is strong group. Um.
这些都是我们领导人坚持的领域 So those are the those of the areas that are holding up in our leaders.
思考一下N-O-C 当有人问我 当股票以这样的方式入市时 我确信你拥有它 你有压力 你想知道你是否应该持有它 Take thoughts on N-O-C. When someone asks me that when the stock has come in like this, I'm sure you own it, and you're under pressure, and you want to know if you should hold it.
嗯 你知道 它仍然在底部 它仍然可以在这里形成一个右边 Um, you know, this is still holding up to the point where it is in a base, and it could still form a right side here.
我在这里考虑的方法是 如果你买了一只这样的股票 它下跌了 假设你的止损点是8% 它下跌了6个百分点 这就没有卖掉它的意义了 那么你可能会给它额外的2个百分点 So the way I look at it here is, if you've bought a stock like this, and it's come down, and let's say your stop is at 8 %, and it's come down to where you're down six, which there's no sense in selling it, then you might as well give it the extra two, you know.
但是如果你持有一只股票 你已经不赚不赔了 但是情况不对 或者你下跌了百分之一到百分之二 嗯 你当然应该考虑卖掉它或者减持 因为 你知道 没有任何收益 也没有任何损失 But if you're in a stock and you're at break even and things are not acting right, or you're down one or 2 %, um, you know, you certainly should consider selling it or trimming, because, you know, nothing gained, nothing lost.
然后你继续前进 继续前进 你 你 你跳过了 你知道 你跳过了一个地雷 嗯 你只是走出了雷区 直到它被清除 And and you move on, you move on, and you, you, you skipped by, you know, a, you skipped a land mine, um, and you just get out of the the minefield until it gets cleared.
嗯 这里有很多评论 但是你们可以试着 试着把问题写在这里 因为我真的花了很多时间来阅读评论 然后发现他们的评论而不是问题 Um, here a lot of comments, but you can guys try to, try to just write questions in here, because it really it takes a lot of my time to read the comments and then discover that their comments and not questions.
我们怎么能期待软着陆呢 How can we expect the soft landing?
历史上从未出现过通胀达到4 5%或更高的情况 It's never been happened before in history when inflation has been 4.5% or more.
我不确定这是不是真的 I'm not sure that that's exactly true.
我现在还不知道确切的数据 I don't know that statistic exactly right now.
我不确定这是不是真的 嗯 我不认为这是完全准确的 但它可能是 嗯 我不确定 但我不 你不能这么做 你知道 这并不意味着它不会发生 Um, not sure that's true. Um, I don't think that's completely accurate, but it could be, um, I-I don't know for sure, but I don't, again, you can't go by, you know, that doesn't mean it can't happen.
所以 嗯 再一次 很多这样的事情 我们回过头来说 这是 你知道 以前从来没有发生过 这是 或者这在过去发生过 So, um, again, a lot of these things that we go back and say, well, this is, you know, never happened before, this is, or this has happened in the past.
这是 你知道的 一百年来发生了两次 It's, you know, it's a hundred years and it's happened twice.
这并不是一个统计上显著的样本量 And that's not exactly a statistically significant sample size.
所以这并不意味着它不会再次发生 So it does not mean that it can't happen again.
你不需要推测所有这些 You don't have to speculate on all this.
你所要做的就是买入突破点 使用智能止损定位 并以合理的仓位尺寸逐步曝光 当情况好转时采取激进措施 当情况不好转时回调 All you have to do is buy the breakouts, use intelligent stop placement and and progressive exposure with with uh reasonable position sizing, and get aggressive when things are working and pull back when they're not.
当市场表现良好的时候你就会进入 当市场表现不好的时候你就会退出 当市场表现非常好的时候你就会增加投资 当市场表现不好的时候你就会100%的持有现金 And you're going to be in the market when it's doing well, you're going to be out when it's not doing well, and you're going to ramp up exposure when it's doing really well, and you're going to be a hundred percent cash when it's not.
这就是你需要做的 And that's all you need to do.
这是我四十年来一直在做的事情 That's all I've been doing for the better part of four decades.
你知道的 你读到的关于我的一切 关于我的表现的一切 还有 你知道的 赢得比赛 在股票市场赚到数百万美元 Um, you know, everything you read about, everything you've learned about me, of my performance, and, you know, winning competitions and making millions of dollars in the stock market.
同样的事情也发生在马克·里奇身上 And the same thing with Mark Richie has been done simply from that.
所有这些都是值得讨论的话题 但它们并不能让你获得成功 All this other stuff is great to talk about, but it's not what's going to get you your success.
嗯 Mr持有任何他的lntH与原来的停止 Um. Did Mr hold any of his lnt H with the original Stop?
坦白说 是最近的一次行动 让他放弃了整件事 It was the recent action, honest enough, for him to kick the whole thing.
我把它们都踢出去了 把它都踢出去了 I kicked it all out. Kicked it all out.
是的 看跌期权的数量呢 Yeah. What about the number of put options?
这是一个指标吗 我只在特定的时间看看跌期权 Is that an indicator? I do watch the puts only at certain times.
我希望看到裸价何时上涨 然后人们就会这么说 I'd like to see when the bare sentiment is up, and then that's what people are saying.
市场下跌 也许我们正在 你知道 我们正在创新低 这看起来很不妙 我们有一个大的下跌日 And the markets down, and maybe we're having, you know, we're hitting new lows, and there's, it's looking real ominous, and we've got a big down day.
我想看看我们是否 你知道的 恶化到下行 然后开始投降 And I want to see if maybe we're getting, you know, uh, exacerbated to the downside, and and starting to capitulate.
看看跌期权买入是否与人们的观点一致 我就能得到价格 I'll look to see if the put buying is an agreement with what people are saying when the two agree, and I get the price.
你知道 你看成交量 你看到你比九比一或十比一好 下降到上升 你有一些无聊 时事通讯作者 成交量在飙升 You know, you look at the volume, you see you're getting better than nine or ten to one, down to up volume, and you've got barishness and the newsletter writers and the put volume is spiking.
通常你的位置更低 但你需要的不仅仅是这一件东西 Usually you're nearer low. But you need to get more than just that one thing.
再说一次 我不会因此而买股票 And again, I wouldn't buy stocks because of that.
我的意思是 我可能会尝试增加一些s-b500 你知道 如果我是一个长期投资者 那时有401k I mean, I might, I might try to add some S-B 500, you know, if I was a longer term investor and had a 401k at that point.
但是 我是不会买股票的 Uh, but, uh, but I would not buy stocks basin.
我不想要低价 我想要的是合适的价格 And I'm not looking to get the low, I'm looking to get the right price turning up.
我不在乎是不是在市场上涨30%之后 And I don't care if it's after the market goes up 30 %.
你知道 这对我来说不重要 You know, it doesn't doesn't matter to me.
比如 市场在哪里 它的走向就很重要 Like, where the market is, it matters where it's going.
嗯 让我们看看 我还是觉得是94年的情况 Um, let's see. I still think it's a 94 scenario.
我可能是 你知道 我不这么认为 I it could be, you know, I-I don't think so.
我觉得现在更像1990年 说实话 你 你会下降 I think it's more like 1990, to be honest with you, where you where you're gonna come down.
90 人们非常害怕一个巨大的 空空如也的市场 而石油价格有可能会上涨 90. People were really terrified of a big, bare market, and you had oil prices up the potential.
当时中东爆发了战争 You had war breaking out in the Middle East, um it.
每个人都是巴里斯 嗯 你知道 我 你知道 今天早上有人说斯坦利·德隆克·米勒 你知道 他说 你知道 他认为价格会显著下降 Everybody was barished. Well, does, you know, I, you know, some one said this morning that Stanley Drunker Miller, you know, has said that, you know, he thinks were going significantly lower.
如果你进入2023年 嗯 你知道 我向我指出这一点 And if you go into 2023, um, you know, I'm pointing that out to me.
当然 你知道 我是醉柱公司的顾问 所以我很了解他 我当然尊重立场 And of course, you know, I was an adviser to Drunken Pillars firm, so I know him well, and I certainly respects stand.
他是惊人的 但是我现在可以告诉你 当我在1998年买股票的时候 当俄罗斯危机和中国危机看起来很不妙的时候 斯坦很傻 He's amazing. Um, but I could tell you right now, stand when when I was buying stocks in 1998, um, when you had the Russian crisis and the China crisis and it looked ominous, stan was barish.
我是superbearish 我可以告诉你很多次 I am superbearish. Um, I could tell you a bunch of times.
保罗·都铎·琼斯(PaulTudorJones)在我买股票的时候很粗俗 Paul Tudor Jones was barish when I was polish and buying stocks.
在1990年 所有人 当我说所有人的时候 我找不到牛市 我找不到一个行业里的人说 哦 不 我们可能已经触底了 And in 1990, everybody, when I say everybody, I could not find the bull I couldn't find one single person in the industry that said, oh no, we were probably bottomed here.
我买股票 我告诉人们我们买股票是基于股票 不是基于我的洞察力 而是基于股票 And I was buying and and I was, and I was telling people I thought we bought them based on the stocks, not based on my clairvoyance, but based on the stocks.
他们说这里的股票是真实的 They said that the stocks are telling the truth here.
我们已经触底 因为有很多股票暴涨 嗯 我要谈谈这个 马克和我正在做一个免费的网络研讨会 嗯 你们可能在推特上看到过 We've bottomed. And because there's lots of stocks breaking out, uh, from basis and, um, and I'm going to talk about that, there's a free webonar that Mark and I are doing, um, you may have seen it on Twitter.
这就是如何在熊市中发现领导者 It's how to spot leaders in a bear market.
我将展示其中的一些例子以及我在那些时期交易的股票 并将它们与我们今天的股价等同起来 以及如何发现这些股票 And I'm going to be showing some of those examples and stocks that I traded during those periods, and equating them to where we are today, and how to spot these stocks.
嗯 我想是6月22日04 30 Um. And that's on, uh, I think it's june 22 at 04:30.
让我看看 你的搜索框架是什么 Let's see, uh, what are your search framers?
还有马库斯·史密斯的首次公开募股 And Marcus Smith for an IPOS screen?
这很简单 你要做的就是按照IPO日期的顺序搜索 然后排序 从最近的开始 你会看到所有的IPO Well, that's simple. All you got to do is just search in order of IPO date, and then you just sort it and from the the most recent and you'll see all the ipos.
听起来你觉得能量来了你还撑着 It sounds like you think energy comes you're still holding up?
我不这么认为 我是说 我知道 我喜欢看图表 Well, I don't think. I mean, I know, I enjoy I do is look at the charts.
我们应该寻找的迹象是什么 人们正在追随能源股 就像他对发货人那样 What's the sign we should look for that people are coming after the energy stocks, as he did the shippers?
你会看到他倒下的 Well, you'll see him go down.
的迹象 你会看到他崩溃的 That's the sign. You'll see him break.
呃 你知道 我认为R型股票像BPT 你知道 至少会有回调 你知道 这是超级延伸 它甚至没有回调 Uh, you know, I would think a stock the type R extended like BPT, you know, would at least have a pull back here, you know, this thing is super extended, and it's not even pulling back.
所以这个小组里的领导者仍然完好无损 So the leaders are still intact in this group.
你会看到 你会看到 monolert会告诉你 你会开始看到违规行为 So you'll, you'll see, uh, you'll see, monolert will tell you, you're going to start seeing violations.
你没见过多少违规 除了 我们被延期了 You haven't seen many violations, except, we're getting extended.
是吗 你们使用额外日费吗 Yeah? Do you use extra day charge?
几乎没有 没有 这里的tdW看起来怎么样 Hardly ever. No. How does td W look here?
来看看 比如我不会感兴趣的东西 T-D-W Take a look. Um, like something that I wouldn't be interested in.
所以我对扩展这个错误不感兴趣 So I-I wouldn't be interested in this error to extend.
这只是一只从某种松散的基础上衍生出来的延伸股 而且 我猜 它表现得很强势 但就是不适合我 It's just an extended stock that came out of a sort of a sloppy base, and, um, it's acting strong, I guess, but just not set up for me.
啊 让我们看看 这轮涨势中涨幅最大的是BBT 但要想买到这些股票需要8-10%的止损 Ah, let's see. The biggest gains in this leg up were BBT, but buying them required eight to 10% stops.
如果你有30%的击球时间 平均收益2% 损失4% 仍然可以降低我的交易平均损失 If you have 30% batting hours, would average gain a 2% loss of 4% would still be OK to lower my average loss for a trade.
如果你有2%的平均收益 你有一个更大的问题需要解决 Well, that if you have an average gain of 2 %, you have a much bigger issue that needs to be addressed.
好的 嗯 这是另一个话题 对吧 Okay, um. So that's another conversation, right?
如果你有33%33%的成功率 你还有另一个问题需要解决 And if you have a 33 33% batting average, you also have another issue that has to be addressed.
要么是你的选择标准有很大缺陷 要么是市场不对 It's either that your selection criteria is very flawed, or the market's not right.
我们知道市场不对 We know the market's not right.
这很明显 对吧 所以你可能会因此有较低的成功率 It's pretty obvious, right? So you probably have that lower batting average because of that.
但当你说它需要8-10%的停止 我不同意 But when you say it required an eight to 10% stop, I don't agree with that.
我是说 你本可以买那只股票的 你知道 越狱 I mean, you could have bought that stock, you know, breaking out.
我们把它提上来吧 Um, let's just bring it up.
我是说 这只股票是在这里爆发的 嗯 我想是24号 对吧 I mean, this stock broke out here, um, on the I believe it was the 24th, right?
我们赢了 对 24号 那只股票再也没跌过 We won, yeah, 24th. That stock never went any lower.
我不知道你是怎么得出这个结论的 你需要8-10%的止损如果你在那天买了它 它甚至不会再低了 So I'm not sure how you come up with that, that you would require eight to 10% stop if you bought that on that day, it never even went any lower.
所以无论如何你都不会有任何压力 Um So you would, you would have never had any pressure on you whatsoever.
让我们看看1968年上方的A-R-I-S Um, let's see A-R-I-S close above 1968.
我能hold住吗 天啊 快来我们的存货都卖完了 Can I hold it? Holy, come And we're stopped out of this stock.
也就是说你没有中途退出 So that means that you didn't stop out.
我的意思是 这就是你正在做的事情 And again, I mean, this is the type of things you're doing.
请不要回来告诉我我是怎么赔钱的 Please don't come back to me and tell me how I lost money.
我有任何私人访问权限 I've been of any private access.
因为 是的 你不是 你没有遵守规则 Because, yeah, you're not. You're not following the rules.
这个应该从名字里去掉 Um, this should be out of this name.
所以我不知道该说些什么 So I don't, I don't know what to say to that.
让我想想 亲爱的 写在短名单上 Let's see, dear, put on the short list.
你为什么不做空 I-I-I不知道 Why didn't you short it? I-I-I don't know.
我没有做空 因为我没有做空 I MS. Um, I didn't short it cause I didn't short it.
我现在不看短的 I'm not looking the short right now.
我想时间不早了 Um, I think it's getting late.
斯坦利·乔卡梅尔的大部分只是另一种评论 Most Stanley Jockamel had just been another comment.
他说他在工作中学会了 你知道的 在空市做空股票 尤其是在空市的中后期 可能会让你损失一大笔钱 He said he learned in his career that, you know, shorting stocks in a bare market, particularly, uh, in the middle, late stages of a bare market, can be a recipe to lose a ton of money.
我也学到了这一点 很多波动 所以 不管怎么说 我就不做空了 但是 如果你们想做 那就看你们的了 And I've learned that too, a lot of volatility and, um, so, uh, anyway, just did not put it out as a short but, um, put it out there for you guys, if you want to take it, that's up to you.
停车要紧 嗯 Keep your stop tight. Um.
有几个空缺的位置 我还没有被淘汰 With a few open positions, I haven't been stopped out.
我应该在停止触发之前尽快关闭它们吗 你看 这是一个主观判断 Should I close them asap prior to the stop being trigger Well, you see, that's a judgment call.
你知道的 这当然是一个主观判断 You know that. That's certainly a judgment call.
嗯 你应该已经知道答案了 因为你应该知道如果你在所有事情上都失败了你的最大损失是什么 不管这是否可以接受 你总是可以走中间路线 把所有事情减半 这样至少你给了自己一些机会获得一些好处但你也截断了不利因素 Um? You should already really know that answer, because you should know where your what your maximum drawdown is if you get stopped on everything, and whether that's acceptable or not, um, you could always play the middle road and cut everything in half, and then at least you've given yourself the opportunity to have some upside but you've also truncated that downside.
我通常就是这么做的 如果我在做决定 你听起来就像优柔寡断 但你知道 这真的是一个判断 That's generally what I do. If I'm in decisive, you sound like you're indecisive, but you know, that's really a judgment call.
我想 你知道的 再去单单机看看是否有违规行为 And I-I think, you know, again, run monoler and see if you're seen violations.
如果您在名称中看到了违规 您可能应该在这一点上减少 If you're seeing violations in the names, you should probably be reducing at this point.
鉴于最近几天这里发生的事 Seeing as what's taken place here in in the last couple days.
让我们看看 我利用这个短期反弹 制作了一些小游戏 Let's see, I traded this short rally and made small games.
昨天 我输掉了所有的比赛 现在我有点失落 Yesterday, I lost all my games, and I'm a little minus now.
我变得太激进了 风险太大了 I became too aggressive and had it too much risk.
市场让我学习 噢 是的 The market makes me learn. Oh yeah.
我相信你们很多人都做过 Well, I'm sure a lot of you have done this.
我相信你们很多人都很好 很兴奋 还有一些人 可能是很大一部分人 可能在没有足够的吸引力或者足够的利润支持的情况下 就把它推上了舞台 I'm sure a lot of you got nice, real excited, and some of you, probably a good percentage of you, probably ramped it up without having the proper, uh traction or the proper or enough profits to back it.
你知道 这是会发生的 And you know, again, this is gonna happen.
你需要被人打几次屁股 And you need to get your fanny whack a bunch of times.
结果是 你知道 一旦你被打了 被鞭打了 会发生两件事之一 And what happens is, you know, once you get beat up and and whipped around, one of two things happened.
你要么学习 要么放弃 You either learn or you quit.
就这么简单 有些人留下来吸取教训 他们做出改变 他们变得更好 而有些人不做同样的事情 然后他们厌倦了 就辞职了 It's pretty much that simple. You know, there's the people that stay learn lessons, they make changes, and they get better, and those that don't just keep doing the same thing, and then they get fed up and they quit.
所以你必须决定你想要属于哪一类 因为这100%是你的选择 So you'll have to decide which category you want to be in, because it's but 100% your choice.
我们会给你正确的知识和正确的训练 We're going to give you all the right knowledge and all the right training.
而是你用它做什么 It's what you do with it.
嗯 所以 再说一遍 这不是 这也不坏 Um. So, so again, uh, that's not, that's not bad, though.
你应该预料到你会犯很多很多的错误 你知道 有fomo 很快就陷入这些位置 这都是学习过程的一部分 You should expect that you're gonna make lots and lots of mistakes, and that, you know, having fomo and running into these positions too quickly, and this is all part of the learning process.
你真的要把一切都当作学习过程的一部分 You really just got to embrace everything as part of the learning process.
你能学到这些很好 And it's great you get these lessons.
如果不是 如果你收支平衡 或者你只是损失了一点点钱 那很好 你得到了 And if if they're not, if you're break even, or you just lost a little bit of money, well great, you've got it.
你花很少的钱就能接受哈佛的教育 You've got a Harvard education for a very small fee.
这就是关键所在 关键是接受教育 而不是支付太多 然后最终 你知道 它会 它会自己支付很多很多很多倍 And that's that's the key. The key is to get the education and not pay too much um, and then eventually, you know, it will, it will pay for itself many, many, many times over.
如何在这个市场上赚钱 How can one make money in this market?
由于利润伴随着越来越低的仓位规模 一旦增加 市场就会崩溃 Since profits come with a lower, lower position sizing, and once increased, the market bends over.
怎么做 首先 你可能在这个市场赚不到钱 How? How would you Well, 1st of all, you might not make money in this market.
这只是 我们只是在讨论测试市场并试图进入一个能够在市场中赚钱的位置 This is just, we're just talking about testing the market and trying to get into a position to be able to make some money in the market.
马克 在这个市场上怎么赚钱呢 But so Mark, how can one make money in this market?
由于利润是伴随着较低的持仓规模而来的 一旦持仓规模增加 市场就会崩溃 Since profits come with the lower position size, and once they're increased, the market bents over.
再一次 曲折之路是一个问题 你怎么在什么时候赚钱 So again, the zag Zig was the question, how do you make money when?
当Zag提出这个问题时 当你增加仓位规模时 你赚不到钱 这对你不利 When the Zag said the question, well, you don't make money when you increase your position size, then it goes against you.
希望你能失去一点 Hopefully you lose just a little.
这就是逐步暴露的全部思想 That's the whole idea to progress exposure.
不是关于我的 我认为如果你看整个 甚至是整个渐进曝光的概念 让我们看看ChartertheNastic 或者类似的东西 Not about me. I think if you look at the whole, even taking the whole idea of progressive exposure, let's look at it Charter the Nastic, or something like that.
今年 我们经历了什么 This year, let's say, I think, what have we had?
两份文件 三天 两到三份失败的文件 从十一月的塞尔辛开始 一年就有三天 Two file, three days, two or three failed files, three days all year since the Selsing on November.
好吧 我们假设你只占了50% 这比我在任何一场比赛中都更有侵略性 而且每次比赛都被阻止了 Well, let's say you gramped to 50 %, which is more aggressive than I've gotten in any one of those, and got stopped on everything.
对我来说 这就更糟糕了 假设你的平均停车率是5% So to me, that's a worse So let's say your average stop was 5 %.
你在三次不同的交易中损失了2 5% 你仍然是下跌的 如果你如果你管理一个右转 你的下跌应该小于7 5 因为你的资本少一些 nastics下跌了30 You took a two and a half percent loss three different times, you're still only down if you If you're if you're managing a right, you should be down less than seven and a half, because you're trading with a little less capital, and the nastics down 30.
所以你还是会做得非常非常好 而且你会在上涨的时候有很大的优势 So you're still doing much, much, much better, and you're going to massive the outperform on the upside.
所以任何时候你进行渐进式暴露 当然你会有这种zig电位 但另一方面 你知道 在一个好的时期你会有05 10比1的概率 So any time you do progressive exposure, of course you have this zig potential, but the other side is, you know, you're going to do 05:10 to one in a good period.
所以如果你冒这个风险 你知道 用2%到3%来赌她们的月经 So if you risk that two, you know, put two to 3% on the line their periods.
我希望能在一两个月内赚20-30% I'm expecting to make 20, 30 %, maybe in a month or two.
从长远来看 这是值得的 Well, that pays for itself over the long haul.
如果你做得好 你不只是 你不只是会逐渐超过 你会大大超过 顺便说一下 stem在这里变成红色 If you do it properly, spades, not not just, you're not just going to incrementally outperform, you're going to massively outperfor By the way, stem went to red here.
这就是今天 有人问一个或几个主要的市场指标 茎不是指标 That's of today, someone's asking one or a few of the major market indicators, and stems are no indicators.
它的股票 这就是整个步骤的概念 It's the stocks. That's a whole idea of step.
这只是基于股票的走势 It's just based on how the stocks are acting.
没有任何指标 仅仅是对股票本身的评估以及他们的工作进展情况我们正在深入了解我个人的表现以及 空缺头寸和我们的买家名单 There are no indicators. Purely an assessment of the stocks themselves and the breakouts of their working And we're getting far through and how well I'm doing personally and in the, uh, open positions and our buyler list.
这只是一种暗示 It's just an indication of that.
就像我读到的一样 你会得到贝 你会得到维勒名单 It's just as as I read what's you're getting, you're getting the byes, you're getting the Viler list.
这是我的交流方式 That's sort of my communication of
我读了什么 我读到的是 昨天是中性的 接近负面 而今天绝对是负面的 现在 嗯 S-N-S-E-N-E-A图表上是什么 what I read it. And I read it, you know, as being Yesterday was neutral on the verge of being negative, and today is absolutely moved to negative now, um, what's on S-N-S-E-N-E-A chart?
我很喜欢表演 你知道 这是因为你的爆发量很大 I MS. acting great. You know, it's you had a high volume break out.
这只其实表现得很好 This one's actually acting really good.
你也有很大的基础 You got a big base too.
我喜欢这个大基数 我买它的一个原因是我认为它有很大很大的资金基础 因为市场在这里遇到了一点麻烦 I love this big base. One reason why I bought it's got this great, big, large base of money I was thinking of is that market got in a little trouble here, you know.
我们现在还在 你知道的 市场资金短缺 可能还在防守端轮换 但是 你知道的 我们刚从一个非常好的基础中走出来 所以现在表现很好 And and we're still in this, you know, this bare market money, still maybe rotating defensively, but, you know, just came out of A-A really well formed base here, um, so it's acting fine at this point.
好吧 有人说关于这个环节的联系 提前准备好了 我知道 我知道 Okay? Someone is saying that about the link to this session, uh, putting on advance for Okay, so, yeah, um, I did, I know it.
也许我现在看到我没有包含这个部分的链接 但你有 你有可以点击的地方在平台上 Maybe I look now when I see I didn't include the link to this section, but you do have on your, um, you do have where you can click on that right up on on the platform.
让我看看 我听到了 你在这次集会上投资了多少 Let's see, I hear you. Um, how much invested did you get in this rally?
嗯 这真的是一种波动 你知道的 我持有一些大的头寸 然后减持一些 然后反复 Well, it was really a kind of going It was kind of volatile, you know, I'd take some big positions, and I'd take some off and back and forth.
我的意思是 我真的不能告诉你 这不是 当我投资25%的时候 我不会那么缓慢或者疯狂的投资组合 So, I mean, I-I can't really tell you, it's not, I don't move that slow or psycho portfolio when I go 25% invested.
我的意思是 有天我在哪里 我完全投入 但它主要是 你知道 短期内贸易 嗯 我不能告诉你 你知道的 但是 呃 但这是一夜之间 很小的时候 你知道 嗯 想 呃 呃 你知道 得到位置和金融风险和和 呃 让我可以为长期持有 I mean, there's days where I was, I was fully invested, but it was mainly, you know, the short term trade, um, I can't really tell you, you know, but, uh, but it's been overnight, very little, you know, um, trying to, uh, uh, you know, get get position and finance the risk and and, uh, and get so I can hold for longer term.
但从去年年初开始 这种情况就没有发生过 But that hasn't happened since the beginning of last year.
不过 还是那句话 流行和放弃的主题仍然存在 好吧 只是 我们这里有一些很好的流行音乐 Still, again, the pop and drop theme is all still alive and, well, just, we've got some pretty good pops here.
嗯 我得告诉你 这真是 真是令人印象深刻 Um. And this was, this was quite, quite impressive, I gotta tell you.
我完全惊讶于有多少只股票成功了 I was completely surprised at how many stocks worked.
我没想到会这样 And I was not expecting that.
我原以为这是非常非常常见的现象 市场在裸市中从低点反弹 一堆股票突破底部 建立起来 然后你被卷入其中 I was expecting like this is very, very common for the market to come off the lows in a bare market, and a bunch of stocks to break out of bases and set up, and you get sucked into them.
如果你有纪律 就像玩扑克一样 And if you're, if you're discipline, it's like a poker player.
你要用王牌来硬塞 知道吗 You're gonna shov with aces, you know.
但在市场的某个特定时刻 很多时候 刚开始的几次你猛推 他们就失败了 But at that particular point in the market, a lot of times, that 1st few times you shove, they fail.
现在 你不知道 但是 你不能说 我不玩这些 Now, you don't know that, though, so you can't say, well, I'm not gonna play these.
你还是要打出王牌的 你知道的 You still have to play the aces, you know.
所以 我还以为我们会陷在这里 一分钱都没赚到 然后倒闭 扭转亏损 但结果是我能赚到钱 而且有足够的上行空间 但还是那句话 你得快 So again, I was expecting us to get sucked in here and have make no money and have it fell and turned the losses, but it turned out to where I was able to make money and, um, and there was enough upside and, but again, you had got to be pretty quick.
这就是为什么我一直在说 你知道 要为贸易的另一方和突然的失败做好准备 And that's why I just kept saying, you know, be it prepared for the other side of trade and for abrupt failure.
你知道 我非常非常有信心 这是一个很好的机会 你知道 这可能会感觉很快 You know, I was very, very confident that there's a good chance that, you know, this could feel fast.
事实就是这样 呃 我觉得我们不会再提这个了 And that's exactly what's happened. Um, B-Y-D-D-F-I don't think that's even gonna come up.
B-Y-D-D 让我们来看看 听起来像是一种低价股 B-Y-D-D. Let's see. It sounds like a penny stock.
不 它不是 我要多少钱才能买到这个 No, it's not. Um, what would it take for me to buy this?
很多吗 你知道 整个右边都要建 A lot? You know, a whole right side to be built.
所以它表现得非常强 但这根本不符合我的标准 So it's acting very strong, but that just doesn't mean my criteria at all.
好吧 请再谈谈拜勒的股票已经回调为什么我们不应该买 Okay, please talk more about why we shouldn't buy now that stocks on Byler have pulled back.
我知道我们不应该 但我想这么做 现在也不想再这么做了 I know we shouldn't, but I wanted to, and want to stop wanting to.
我不能帮你 如果你 我是说 一些人拉回移动平均线 比如100点中的50点 I can't help you with stop wanting to if you A-I mean, some of the pull back to the moving averages, like the 50 of the 100.
这真的很诱人 于是又回到了50 And it's enticing, really. So has pull back to the 50.
1点50让你成了百万富翁 And the 01:50 made you a millionaire?
他们让你成为富人 因为他们没有让我成为富人从1点50分开始买钢管 They made you a rich man, cause they haven't made me a rich man from buying pole backs to the 50 of the 01:50.
所以我不知道 我不知道是什么让它们如此诱人 除了你自己的一些幻想 So I don't know. I don't know what would make them enticing, except some of your own fantasies.
所以我真的 我不能 好吧 我不会跟你说的因为我不知道你在说什么 So I-I really, I can't. Yeah, I'm not gonna speak to that because I don't know what the heck you're talking about here.
好吧 读我的书 我所做的一切都在那里 All right, read my books. Everything I do is there.
你问的问题和我们的工作完全矛盾 所以我不知道我为什么要跟你解释 Um, you're asking about something that completely contradicts what we do, so I don't know why I should have to explain that to you.
好吧 我对你有点苛刻了 但我必须 我必须给你严厉的爱 All right, I'm, I'm being a little harder on you about this, but I have to, I've got to give you some tough love here.
我的意思是 这是什么 I mean, what is the, what?
回到1点50分和马克·梅内维尼还有我的策略 你知道的 Pull back to the 01:50 have to do with anything what Mark Menervini and And my strategy, uh, uh, you know,
代表 我刚刚有两个名字来了又走了 stands for, I just had two the names come and go of the
一直叫维奥莱特 这并不意味着 你 你知道 violet all the time. It doesn't mean, you, you know,
拜勒不是 不是 不是按顺序排列的 biler doesn't, isn't, isn't a by list.
维奥莱特很有潜力 Violet is a potential by list.
我们从PerfectPivots买了很多很多股票 So we've bought lots and lots of stocks here, you know, from Perfect Pivots.
其中很多股票 几乎我们买的每一只股票 都是教科书式的有几只我稍微讲了一下 但这些都是教科书式的 值得购买的股票 And many of these stocks, almost every stock that we bought was, it was really a textbook by there's a few I stretched a little bit on, but these have been very textbook, excellent buys.
如果我在每一个位置上都被阻止了 下次我也不会做什么不同的事情 If I got stopped out of every single position that I put on, I would do nothing different the next time.
好吧 因为这就像赢了a然后输了 然后说 我不打算再赢了 Okay? Because again, it will be like playing aces and get it and losing and then saying, I'm not going to play aces anymore.
那太荒唐了 你会输掉a 但这仍然是赢牌 所以我们不会改变任何东西 That's ridiculous. You're going to lose with aces, but it's still a winning hand, so we would not change anything.
我们当然不会突然说 股票回落到某个随机移动平均线 我们应该买入 And we're certainly not going to all of a sudden say, the stocks pulled back here to some random moving average, and we should be buying them.
他们不是在为越狱做准备 They're not working from the breakouts.
你知道 我告诉你所有你需要知道的 You know, I that tells you all you need to know.
让我们来看看 我打算这周末好好研究一下你的书 但你能不能给我一些处理的策略建议把它取出来 Let's see. Um, I plan to dig into your books this weekend, but can you share any tactical advice on how you handle Draw it out.
四月初我的空气收益为11% My 11% gain for the air at the beginning of aprils.
现在是收支平衡 我担心继续交易 很想听听你的想法 好消息是你今年涨了11% Now down the break even. I fear continue over trade, and would like to hear your thoughts so well, the good news is that you were up this year 11 %.
所以这意味着你做了正确的事情 你现在达到了收支平衡 So that means you're doing something right, and you're now at break even.
就像马克说的 NASEX下跌了30% 你就不赚不赔了 And as Mark said, the NASEX down 30 %, and you're at break even.
所以 你知道 cutos兄弟 你知道 这是惊人的 So, you know, cutos man, you know, that's phenomenal.
所以我不知道你在怕什么 So I don't know what you're so afraid of.
你做得很好 只要继续做你正在做的事情 最终你会抓住机遇 做得很好 You're doing a fantastic job. Just keep doing what you're doing, and eventually you're going to latch on to the upside and do great.
嗯 听起来你在说过度交易 但听起来你对过度交易管理得很好 Um. So it sounds like you're saying about over trading, but it sounds like you're managing you're over trading quite well.
那你要怎么处理呢 Um, so how do you handle it again?
如果你的提成太少 我也会给你加分 因为这意味着你和我一样讨厌赔钱 你是一个坚持的人 这对你很有好处 我认为 即使它有时会让你感到痛苦 这就是代价 If that's too small of a draw down, I give you credit for that too, because that means that you hate losing money like me, and you're a stickler, and that's gonna serve you quite well, I think, even though if it whips you around at times, that's the price.
我已经说过很多次了 如果你不觉得自己很蠢 你不是管理者风险市场会让你觉得自己很蠢很多次 I like I've said many times, if you're not feeling stupid, you're not manager risk market's gonna make you feel like a dumbass a lot of times, more times than not.
你得习惯这一点 And you got to get used to that.
这是很难习惯的 It's very difficult to get used to that.
看 我不再觉得自己是傻瓜了 See, I don't feel like a dumbass anymore.
因为 我知道 感觉自己像个傻瓜是生意的一部分 所以 对我来说 我不再觉得自己是个傻瓜了 Because, I know, feeling like a dumbass is just part of the business, so, like, to me, it's just, I don't feel dumb anymore.
我只是 一开始是这样 但现在我知道这只是一部分 I just, in the beginning I did, you know, but now I know that that's just part of it.
整个行业都是这样 比如 你知道 如果你有一家服装店 你买了卖不出去的裙子 然后把价格调低 你会不会觉得自己是个白痴 So, and it just goes across the doing business, like, you know, if you're, if you own a dress shop, and you, you know, bought dresses that didn't sell, and you mark them down, you know, uh, are you gonna feel like you're, you're an idiot?
因为你是 你知道 你店里卖不出去的东西 Because you is, you know, something didn't sell in your store?
不 因为这种事经常发生 No, because that happens all the time.
总有不动的商品 There's constantly, there's merchandise that doesn't move.
市场下跌了 And you've got a market down.
把它处理掉 你不知道什么行得通 什么行不通 Get rid of it. You can't know what's gonna work, what's not gonna work.
你然后然后你要做的是 如果你在经营这个行业上很聪明 那些正在移动的红裙子 你要买更多 You And then and then what you do, though, if you're smart at running that business, the red dresses that are moving, you buy more of em.
任何push这些 And any of any push those.
这是一个聪明的企业经营者应该做的 That's what a smart business operator does.
股市也不例外 No different in the stock market.
好了 我要跑了 到目前为止 我想我们已经给它涂上了足够多的颜色 All right, I'm gonna run. I-I think we did, we did enough of giving it some colored here as far as to where we are.
我们可以期待的是 我们又回到了我们一直在等待 看看我们是否能稳定下来 如果库存能够建立 扩散 爆发 开始工作 你就会重新开始 And you know what to expect here is that again, we're right back to we've kind of wait and see if we can stabilize, if stocks can set up and proliferate and break out, start working, you sort of just restart all over again.
你知道 如果事情像这样失败了 你必须从小事做起 你开始慢慢地做得很好 一两个位置的试点购买 当他们开始工作时 你再加上你再把整个过程重复一遍 You know, if if things fall apart like this, and you have to start small again, you start incrementally fine, one or two positions pilot buys, when, if they start working, you add you go through the whole process all over again.
这就是一个持续不断的 你知道的 冲洗和重复 你知道 你知道 从一个地方到另一个地方购买 得到一些反馈 做出调整 注意你的停车 要么上升要么下降 一遍又一遍地重复 Um, and it's just a constant, uh, you know, rinse and repeat, you know, you know, place to place to buy, get some feedback, make adjustments, mind your stops, either ramp up or ramp down, over and over and over repeat.
如果你这样做了 你就不用担心市场会怎么发展等等 If you just do just that, you don't have to worry about all the wander on where the market's gonna go and all this stuff.
你会被迫 你会被迫进入市场或退出市场比任何指标或预言家所能预测的 或给你的信号都要好 You'll be forced, you'll be forced into the market and out of the market way better than any indicator or some prognosticator can can predict, or give you signals, if you will.
看这里 我想现在是周五 对吧 Um, see here, I guess it's Friday now, right?
是啊 我没意识到 这对我来说就像这周的一个大模糊 Yeah, I didn't realize it's, yeah, it's just like one big blur to me this week.
嗯 所以我们下周会看到它的问答和我有一个愉快的周末 Um, so we'll see it next week for A-Q and A-I have a good weekend.
当然 我周末会进行学习 I'll be doing, of course, weekends a study session.
应该会很有意思 这周 发生了很多事情 所以我会试着 嗯 涵盖很多内容 并试着在周末的学习课上尽我所能阐明这里发生了什么 Should be interesting. This week, a lot has transpired, so I'll try to, uh, cover a lot of this and try to illuminate what's going on here as best as I can in the weekend study sessions.
请收看这些节目 下周一再见 So tune into those, and then we'll see on Monday.
好的 谢谢你 马克 很感激 把你的家伙 Okay, thanks, mark. Appreciate it. Take your guys.
好吧 再见 再见 Okay. Bye. Bye.