everyone thanks for tuning in to this
episode which is sponsored by our
friends inaudible enjoy well I think
this is maybe the most important thing
to know about living right now in the
21st century that we are now hackable
animals that we have the technology to
decipher what do you think what you want
to predict human choices to manipulate
human desires in ways which were never
possible before everybody welcome to
impact theory our goal with this show
and company is to introduce you to the
people and ideas that will help you
actually execute on your dreams all
right today's guest is one of the most
profound thinkers of our time a two-time
winner of the Polanski prize for
creativity and originality his books
have sold over 12 million copies and
been translated into more than 45
languages sapiens his seminal book on
the history of mankind spent six months
on the Sunday Times bestseller list and
also made him in number one New York
Times bestselling author his work has
been recommended by countless luminaries
including Bill Gates Richard Branson
Mark Zuckerberg and Barack Obama he's
won a litany of awards including the
Society for military histories monk Otto
Award for outstanding articles on
military history and the 2017 handel's
Blatz German economic Book Award for the
most thoughtful and influential economic
book of the year additionally he's one
of the most sought-after and influential
speakers in the world he's given
multiple TED talks on hot-button issues
relating to the human race and in 2018
he was invited to give the mainstage
keynote speech on the future of humanity
at the World Economic Forum annual
meeting in Davos he is a PhD from Oxford
is a tenured history professor at the
Hebrew University of Jerusalem and in
addition to his many books he's also
written for such prestigious global
outlets as the Financial Times the New
York Times The Wall Street Journal and
The Guardian so please help me in
welcoming the man who does a yearly 60
day silent vapp asana meditation retreat
the bestselling author of 21 lessons for
the 21st century
you've all nowa her are
we'll have you on the show thank you
good to be here good
very excited so I've been obsessively
reading your books since sapiens came
out and just really really blown away
and behind the scenes there's a guy here
named chase somewhere who you will have
to meet today who has just been an
absolute champion for your books
internally because of the way that you
really frame the historical and where
we're going in a way that becomes very
accessible for today and who we are and
that I think is the cool nexus of 21
lessons is that you're really attacking
how does this all make sense how is the
past inform where we are and how does
where we are today inform where we're
actually going to go and as a company
that's making fiction content and
dealing in sci-fi and things like that
these ideas are really really important
to us for creating guides on how to be
essentially and the idea that I wanted
to start with is your notion of some of
the things that are happening
technologically become a little bit
dangerous because you can hack a human
and if you get explain what you mean by
hacking a human and then how do we end
up hacking ourselves in a positive way
well I think this is maybe the most
important thing to know about living
right now in the 21st century that we
are now hackable animals we have the
technology to decipher how humans or
what do you think what you want to
predict human choices to manipulate
human desires in ways which were never
possible before basically to hack a
human being you need two things you need
a lot of data especially biometric data
not just about where you go and what you
buy but what is happening inside your
body and inside your brain and secondly
you need a lot of computing power to
make sense of all that data now
previously in history this was never
possible
nobody had enough data and enough
computing power to hack human beings
even if the KGB of the Gestapo followed
you around 24 hours a day
eavesdropping on every conversation you
had watching everybody you meet still
they did not have the biological
knowledge to really understand what's
happening inside you and they certainly
didn't have the computing power
necessary to make sense even of the data
they were able to collect so the KGB
could not really understand you could
not really predict all your choices or
manipulate all your desires and so forth
and but now it's changing what the KGB
couldn't do corporations and governments
today are beginning to be able to do and
this is because of the merger of the
revolution in biotech we are getting
better in understanding what's happening
inside us in the body in the brain and
at the same time the revolution in
Infotech which gives us the computing
power necessary when you put the two
together when Infotech merges with
biotech what you get is the ability to
create algorithms that understand me
better than I understand myself and then
these algorithms cannot just predict my
choices but also manipulate my desires
and basically sell me anything whether
it's a product or a politician and that
so that's what you're calling hacking
that you're hitting me with the right
emotional message at exactly the right
time based on my biometric data mm-hmm
yeah this is one of the things you can
do then you can predict you can
manipulate you can eventually also
re-engineer or replace if you really
hack a system you really understand how
it functions then usually you can also
reengineering or you can completely
replace it and again one of the dangers
that we are facing to during the 21st
century is that computers and AI would
be able to replace humans in more and
more tasks and maybe push millions of
humans out of the job market as a result
all right so I I fully understand the
dangers and we will talk about some of
what we were talking about off-camera
which is we've got this whole story
called nyan phew
we're exploring that notion of what
happens to what you've called the
useless class when they're pushed out of
the job market and what does that do
economically but going just staying with
the the notion of the hack ability for a
second so it's funny as you were
describing it and I know you bring the
sense of like there's some like real
significant problems we need to take a
very serious look at and I get almost
giddy with excitement because I have
potentially delusional levels of
optimism I'm very open to that no I
agree I mean the thing about this
ability to hack humans is that it has
also potentially tremendous positive
consequences and this is why it's so
tempting if it was only bad then it was
B which would have been like an easy
deal to say okay we don't want that and
let's stop researching or going in the
direction but it is extremely tempting
because it can provide us for example
with the best health care in history
something which goes far beyond anything
we've seen so far
this can mean that maybe in 30 years the
poorest person on the planet can get a
better health care from her or his
smartphone then the richest person today
gets from the best hospitals and the
best doctors the kind of things you can
just know about what's happening in your
body is nothing like we've seen so far
know that that's really extraordinary
and if you had to take the positive look
and say okay we have this ability let's
just say it's already there we've got
all this biometric data it's kicking off
how would you encourage people to
leverage that to empower themselves and
I'll use an example that I found
profoundly interesting from your book so
you said that growing up that it was
unclear to you that you were gay but
that now Stanford has developed an
algorithm that essentially can look at
three or four photos of somebody's face
and predict with 91% accuracy whether or
not they're gay which seems impossible
but if that's true the level of data
that we could give ourselves about are
like deepest most hardwired desires
there would be a level of clarity there
that seems useful how would you
encourage people to use that well it's a
very good example I mean the Stanford
algorithm actually there is a lot of
problems with that research and let's
put it aside but first key message from
from that is how little people actually
know about themselves and one of the
most important things in my life and
also in I think in my scientific career
was the realization of how little I know
about myself and humans in general there
was so many important ideas and
important facts we don't realize about
herself I was 21 when I finally realized
that I was game which is you know when
you think what it it's it's absolutely
amazing I mean it should have been
obvious at age you know 16 15 and an
algorithm would have realized it very
quickly and you can build algorithms
like that today or in a few years you
just need to follow your eye movements
like you you go on the beach or you you
look at the computer screen and you see
an attractive guy an attractive girl and
just follow the focus of the eyes world
with the eyes go and whom do they focus
on should be very easy and such an
algorithm could have told when I was 15
that I was gay and the implications are
really mind-boggling when an algorithm
knows such an important thing about you
before you know it about yourself
now it can go in all kinds of directions
it really depends on where you live and
what you do with it
in some countries you can be in trouble
now with the police in the government
you might be sent to some reaction
facility in some countries like with you
know surveillance capitalism so maybe I
don't know about myself that I'm game
but coca-cola knows I'm gay because they
have these algorithms and they want to
know that because they need to know
which commercials to show me let's say
coca-cola knows that I'm gay and I even
know about myself that they know it and
Pepsi doesn't coca-cola will show me a
commercial
with a shirtless guy drinking coca-cola
but Pepsi will make the mistake of
showing the girl in the bikini and next
day without my realizing why when I go
to the supermarket when I go to the to
the restaurant I will order coca-cola
not Pepsi I don't know why but they know
so they might not even share this kind
of information with me now if the
algorithm does share the information
with me again it's it a lot depends on
context one scenario is that you're 15
years old
you go to a birthday party of somebody
from your class and somebody just heard
that there is this cool new algorithm
which tells zeros sexual orientation and
everybody agrees it will be a lot of fun
to just have this game that everybody
takes turn with the algorithm and and
everybody else looking and seeing the
results would you like to discover about
yourself in such a scenario this this
can be quite quite a shocking experience
okay but even if it's done in like
complete privacy you know it's it's a
very deep philosophical question what
does it mean to discover something like
that about yourself from an algorithm
what car what does it mean about human
life about human identity we have very
little experience with these kinds of
things you know from very ancient times
all the philosophers and saints and
sages tell people to get to know
yourself better it's one of the maybe
the most important thing in life is to
get to know yourself better but for all
of history this was a process of self
exploration which you did through things
like meditation and maybe sports and
maybe out and contemplation and all
these things what does it mean when the
process of self self exploration is
being outsourced to a big data algorithm
and the philosophical implications are
our quite mind-boggling it's interesting
so let's talk about that so the
implications your outsourcing the
self-discovery process to me that
sounds so profoundly useful because all
day the people that write in to me
they're asking basically one essential
question how do I find the thing that I
love because I tell people you need to
develop a passion in your life I don't
think you find it I think you develop it
but they need to start from an area of
real interest it needs to be actually
something that at a hardwiring level
they're just they get that response so
then their next question is like how
right how do I get into that how do I
discover the thing that triggers me like
that and if I discover then how do I
develop it into a passion if you had an
algorithm something that were able to
use the more manipulative techniques
that you were talking about that
coca-cola's doing or whatever but give
it to you in a way that can move you in
a desired direction so I'll give you a
specific example that you give in the
book so talking about how let's say
there was an algorithm that knew you
just broken up with somebody new that
you were in the grips of heartache
because they're they're reading your
BIOS thing we all do ha in fact give it
to us that that example that you put so
the biometrics they're reading you the
it's the song it knows what songs to
pick yeah I mean something is as simple
as choosing music so you you were just
dumped by your boyfriend or girlfriend
and the the algorithm that controls the
music that you listen to chooses the
songs that are the best fit for your
current mental state and of course this
brings up the question of what is the
matrix what do you actually want from
the music do you want the music to
uplift you or do you more want the music
to kind of connect you to the deepest
level of sadness and depression and
ultimately we can say that the algorithm
can follow different kinds of
instructions if you know what kind of
emotional state you want to be in you
can just tell the algorithm what what
you want and it will do it if you are
not sure you can tell the algorithm
follow the recommendation of the best
psychologist today so let's say you have
the five stages of grief
so okay walk me with music
through this five stages of grief and
the algorithm can do that better than
any human DJ and what we really need to
understand in in this regard is that
what music and most of art plays on in
the end is the human biochemical system
at least according to the dominant view
of art in the modern Western world we
had different views in different
cultures but in the modern Western world
the idea of art is that art is above all
about inspiring human emotions it
doesn't necessarily have to be joy great
art can inspire also sadness can can
inspire a anger can inspire fear it can
be a whole palette of emotional states
but out is about inspiring human
emotions so the instrument artists play
on and whether it's musicians or poets
or movie makers they're actually playing
on the homosapiens biochemical system
and we might reach a point quite soon
when an algorithm knows this instrument
better than any human artist a movie or
a poem or a song that will not move you
that will not inspire you might inspire
me and something that will inspire me in
one situation might not inspire me in
another situation and as time goes on
and the algorithm gathers more and more
data about me it will become more and
more accurate in reading my biochemical
system and knowing how to play on it as
if it was a piano like okay you want joy
I press this button and out comes the
perfect song the only song in the world
that can actually make me joyful right
now that's so interesting to me alright
so right now real world you can snap
your fingers and you can have one
algorithm that's tied to one biochemical
process in your life for real what would
you want to monitor and get that
feedback on now that's easy I mean a
healthcare
if there is like something seriously
wrong in my body that I don't know about
like I don't know cancer or something I
would like the algorithm to find that
out I don't want to wait until I mean
the usual process is that it has to go
through your own mind you can't
outsource it I mean today when you need
to diagnose cancer there are exceptions
but in most cases there is a crucial
moment when you feel something is wrong
in my body and you go to this doctor and
that doctor and you do this test and
that test until they finally realize
okay we just discovered you have cancer
in your liver or whatever but because it
relies on your own feelings in this case
feelings of pain very often it's quite
late in the process by the time you
start feeling pain usually the cancer
has spread and maybe it's not too late
but it's going to be expensive and
painful and problematic to treat it but
if we can you know outsource this don't
go through the mind through through my
feelings I want an algorithm that with
biometric sensors is monitoring my
health 24 hours a day without my being
aware of it it can potentially discover
this liver cancer when it is just a tiny
just a few cells are beginning to to to
split and to spread and it's so easy and
cheap and painless to take care of it
now instead of two years later when it's
already spread and it's it's a big
problem so this is something that I
think almost everybody would sign on to
and this is the big temptation because
it comes with the whole other B the long
tail of dangers I mean this algorithm
that the the healthcare system knows
almost everything about you so one of
the biggest battles in the 21st century
is likely to be between privacy and
health and I guess that health is going
to win
most people will be willing to give up a
very significant amount of privacy in
exchange for far better health care now
we do need to try and enjoy both worlds
to create a system that give us a very
good health care but without
compromising our privacy
keeping there yes you can use the data
to tell me that there is a problem and
then we should do this order to solve it
but I don't want this data to be used
for other purposes without my knowing it
whether we can reach such a balance and
like you know have-your-cake-
and-eat-it-too
that that's a big political question
yeah yeah that's that is very crazy and
very exciting for somebody like me who
definitely airs on the side of wanting
the health care
you've talked really powerfully about
story about how stories like money which
I don't think most people think of as a
story as being you know these tremendous
things that control all of our lives
that point us all in the same direction
that gives us sort of a common code by
which to live
how can people take control of the story
that they tell themselves about
themselves which I find to be one of the
most important stories that you engage
in yes how our identity is really just a
story which we constantly construct and
and embellish I mean you can say that
the entire human mind is a machine that
constantly produces stories and
especially one very important story
which is my story and different people
have different specialize in different
genres some people build their stories a
tragedy some people build their stories
a comedy or a drama but in the end the
self is a story and not a real thing and
on the one hand with all the new
technologies you get better and in
better abilities to construct yourself
but already today a lot of the work
which previously was done in the brain
in the mind of constructing my identity
my story
has been outsourced to things like
Facebook that you build your Facebook
account and this is actually outsourcing
it from the brain and you are busy maybe
four hours every day just building a
story and becoming extremely attached to
it and and publicizing it to everybody
and you tend to make this fundamental
mistake you think it's the wreck this is
really me and so that a mistake I'm
actually really curious first of all if
you take something like the profile that
people create about themselves in in
Facebook or Instagram it should be
obvious
it doesn't really reflect your actual
existence your actual reality both in
reality now to reality like the
percentage of time you smile in your
Instagram account is much bigger than
the percentage of time you smile in real
life and you know you go on some
vacation and you post the the images
from the vacation so usually you're
smiling in your in your swimming suit on
the beach with your girlfriend and
boyfriend holding and this cocktail and
everything looks perfect and everybody's
so envious but actually you just had a
nasty fight with your boyfriend five
minutes ago and then this is the image
that everybody else is seeing and
thinking oh they must have such
wonderful time and afterwards like a
year later of two years later you look
back and this is what you see and you
forget what was the actual experience
like what what is the role of truth in a
story that we tell ourselves about
ourselves very little do you think there
should be more there should there should
definitely be more and wanting an
outcome if we were like I'm really gonna
make sure that the story I tell myself
is objectively true it's going to be
very very painful and difficult I think
it is worth the effort but it's just
very difficult we constantly we
constantly edit the this story just like
the news on TV are edited and just like
you know it's a bit
making a movie like you watch the movie
in the cinema and everything is so
seamless like this is the story it flows
and then when you actually see how a
movie is produced this is insane like
you have this tiny bit of a scene you
repeat it 50 times and sometimes you
know you shoot this scene this scene
scene 2 comes after a scene 1 but
actually it was filmed long before that
so sometimes you you you feel the
breakup of the lovers before you film
the the first meeting for all kinds of
of scheduled reasons and location so the
the end result is completely seamless
and perfect but it is actually made up
from all these tiny
in tiny disconnected bits that have been
you know this is from here and this is
from there and we somehow glue it
together and it looks good and it's the
same with the story of our life it's all
kinds of bits and pieces and only when
you tell it to yourself or to somebody
else it kind of makes sense the cost of
trying to stick with the reality as it
is is very very high it's very difficult
it demands a lot of effort and it is
often very painful because you have to
acknowledge many things about yourself
that you don't want to acknowledge them
people have this fantasy of going to
some retreat and just taking out a week
or two off from life to really observe
inside to really explore Who am I what
is my authentic self and they have this
fantastic notion that I will be able to
finally connect to my inner child and I
will discover my true vocation in life
and I will discover all these wonderful
things about me and when you actually do
it
the first thing you usually encounter is
all the things you don't want to know
about yourself there is a reason
that that that you don't want to know
them I think it's worth the effort but
it's a very very hard task all right on
that there's so many studies that talk
about the more delusional somebody is
self delusional the more likely they are
to be happy you've said one of the big
questions is a historian you're trying
to answer is as we've moved forward as a
you know a species of society have we
actually gotten happier so there is some
importance it sounds like that you place
on happiness so why then would you want
people to do that hard work of facing
the reality is recognizing the things
about themselves that they don't
necessarily want to recognize is that
because you think it leads to more
happiness I think that ultimately it is
worth the price I mean delusions come at
a very high price also and not just to
yourself but to people around you to the
world as a whole I mean ultimately this
leads to things like wars and like
genocide and like an emperor and you
know I come from Israel I come from the
Middle East so I am surrounded by
millions of people who are killing each
other because of all kinds of fictional
stories in delusions that they believe
in so sometimes it's an important
defensive mechanism it's very difficult
to live just with the raw truth all the
time but the price of delusion and the
price of not being able to tell the
difference between fiction and reality
it ends up and eventually it adds up to
things like genocide and war that sounds
like a pretty extraordinary price to pay
yeah I will agree with you there in 21
lessons is what do we do when we're
faced with being put out of work that we
are one of the useless class and we have
to do this reinvention at a career level
you're living longer your career life is
50 60 70 80 years whatever that looks
like in a time where every seven to ten
years like it's just it's a completely
new world what do you think the human
capacity for that level of reinvention
is well that's a very important
question-it has little to do with
immortality because even without
immortality we are heading in the
direction even if people if the lifespan
remains as it is 80 years every 10 years
you have another big shock
I mean people one of the things many
people don't realize about the AI
revolution and the automation revolution
they imagine it is some kind of one-time
event we have the big AI revolution in
2025
you have all these truck drivers and
taxi drivers and doctors and whatever
losing their jobs you have a few
difficult years of adjustment and then
eventually you have the new brave new
world of AI with a new equilibrium and
this is an extremely unlikely scenario
because we are nowhere near the maximum
potential of AI the speed in which it
develops is only likely to accelerate so
what we are really going to face is a
cascade of ever bigger revolutions in
the job market and in many other areas
of life relationships politics and so
forth so you have a big disruption in
2025 you have an even bigger disruption
in 2035 an even bigger one in 2045 and
and so forth and if you look say at a
job market so ok you were a truck driver
and they no longer need you but there is
new demand for yoga teachers so you
somehow reinvent yourself at age 40 I'm
no longer truck driver nominate your
teacher it's very difficult you somehow
do it 10 years later no need of yoga
teachers thank you very much we now have
these amazing applications connected
with biometric sensors to your body they
know exactly what you're doing with
every tiny muscle as you do this posture
of that posture
no human yoga teacher can compete with
that you're out of job you have to
reinvent yourself again as a designer of
virtual world games and you do it
somehow but 10 years later you have to
do it again because this too has now
been automated and
even if you get support from the
government and there is all these
education for the for adult system the
really big question is again it's
psychological do do we as human beings
have the mental stability and the
emotional intelligence necessary to
reinvent ourselves repeatedly and you
know when you're 20 what you're doing is
basically to reinvent yourself or to
invent yourself for the first time and
it is very difficult when you're 30 it's
even more difficult but you sometimes
but you somehow do it but when you get
to be 40 50 60 it becomes more and more
difficult you have more to let go of I
have invested so much in building this
career this personality these skills to
give it all up and start again from from
a new it's so difficult so I don't know
what whether we can do it yeah that is
the question that I think will
ultimately be forced to answer and that
brings me to education so what do you
think that if we're talking to somebody
who's 18 right now they're trying to
decide do I go to college yes or no
should they go to college and if they go
to college what should they be studying
that's a very difficult question the
first thing they should realize is that
nobody really knows nobody really knows
how the job market would look like in
2040 so they should be suspicious of all
these kinds of advices by people who
pretend that they know what the job
market would need in 20 years the best
investment I would say is in emotional
intelligence and in mental balance and
these kinds of skills of how to keep
changing throughout your life how to
keep learning throughout your life now
how do you learn that that's very very
difficult we don't have a college degree
in mental flexibility but these are the
most important
so whatever you choose you can go to law
school you can go to ballet school but
you should keep in mind that much of
what I'm learning might be irrelevant in
in 20 or 30 years so whatever else I'm
doing
I should also invest in developing my
emotional intelligence my mental balance
my ability to keep changing and learning
and reinventing throughout my life so
maybe to give an image or a metaphor if
in the past education was like building
a stone house with very deep foundations
now I would say that education is more
like a constructing a tent
that you can fold up and move to another
location very quickly and easily that's
a great analogy so given that it's so
hard to predict the future you've talked
a lot about the power of science fiction
and science fiction writers walk us
through that why what is the role that a
science fiction writer can play or
storytellers filmmaker whatever the case
may be our lives in the 21st century
more than anything else are going to be
new technologies especially in AI and
biotechnology and most people their
understanding of these technologies and
their potential for good or for bad it
really comes from science fiction the
political system so far has done an
awful job in understanding and preparing
us for these kinds of developments there
is almost no talk in the political arena
about AI and biotechnology the
scientific community is of course very
deeply engaged with it but most people
don't read articles in science or nature
and even if they tried it would be very
difficult for them to understand the
professionals are gone and all that the
statistics and so forth so that most
people actually get their education
about what's coming from science fiction
and this mean
at least I think so that science fiction
is now the most important artistic genre
and it should also be the most
responsible and one of the problems we
sense fiction is it's so far it is done
as social jobs some novels and TV series
and films are really amazing in the way
they explore what's what could what
could happen are ranging like some of my
favorites are my all-time favorite is
brave new world by Aldous Huxley which
was written back in the early 1930s and
I think is the most prophetic and
profound I totally understand alright so
before I asked my last question tell
these guys where they can find you
online I have a website why in Harari
dot-com and they can find me on Facebook
and Instagram and Twitter and all the
usual places
awesome my last question is what is the
impact that you want to have on the
world I want to bring more clarity to
the public conversation on what's
happening in the world I think that too
much of the public discussion is focused
either on the wrong issues or is
extremely confused and unclear and
people are flooded by enormous amounts
of information which they don't know how
to make sense of and what I I see my
mission is bringing clarity to the
public discussion especially in terms of
focusing people's attention on the most
important questions I try to give some
answers to but I don't care a lot if
people don't agree with me about the
answers about the solutions the
important thing I think is to agree
about the questions and I would end by
saying there are three big challenges to
humankind in the 21st century there are
nuclear war climate change and
technological disruption and these
should be the first three items on the
political agenda of every country this
is not the case right now I would like
it to be the case
Yuval thank you so much for joining me
thank you that was incredible all right
guys when I say that you're going to
learn just an absolute metric ton of
stuff from this man dive into his first
three books they are absolutely
extraordinary you will learn so much
about where we've come from where we're
going and where we are today that it
will give you the ability to look at
yourself in a totally new way to
understand yourself not even just at the
operating system level but like at the
kernel level it was so fascinating to
see him walk us through that entire
lineage it's unlike anything that I've
read before and reading the books as a
trilogy and understanding how they all
work together is is breathtaking so I
highly highly highly encourage that and
the fact that he's out there in a
populist way getting people to ask these
questions I think is so critical and he
throughout go back to the beginning of
this episode he threw out some amazing
business ideas without I think even
meaning to but I thought wow somebody
could actually run with these and they
would be extraordinary and that's just
the way his mind works he really is one
of the most profound thinkers of our
time dive in he's accessible and that is
one of the most beautiful things and
remember he's a historian so the way
that he's putting this all in context is
is truly extraordinary and once you
understand things at why they are the
way they are then it just brings a whole
new ability to see through the lies fake
news the stories we tell ourselves all
of the just natural human attachments to
really come to an understanding of the
way the world actually is and once you
understand that then you can begin to
move in a way that makes sense and
allows you to reach your own goals all
right if you haven't already be sure to
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be legendary
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I read a lot but when I say that I read
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