好吧 每个人 欢迎来到这个周末的每周学习环节 Okay, everyone. Welcome to this weekend's weekly study session.
要把 Going to take
看看整个市场 还有个股 不幸的是 个股并不多 a look at the general market, and then also individual stocks, which, unfortunately there aren't many.
你可以看看风险模型 You can look at the risk model
11月22日第1号手机信号仍然有效 1st cell signal is still in effect since november 22.
我们使用这个手机信号已经有一段时间了 完全没有任何改善 甚至在11月22日期间或之后的任何时候都没有 Been quite a while that we've been on this cell signal, with absolutely no improvement whatsoever, not even to bioder At any time UH during or from november 22.
你可以看到所有的分量都是负的 You can see all the components are indeed negative.
特别关注个股的UHstem模型也达到了最大负面读数 这意味着现在是一个艰难的环境 你现在应该非常谨慎 The UH stem model, which is specifically focused on individual stocks, is also at its maximum negative reading, meaning that it's a hard penny environment, and you should be very cautious right now.
没有多少股票符合我们的标准 或者 呃 甚至是少数没有多少吸引力的股票 当然 尽管石油领域的一些领域 能源 一些鸡蛋库存 也许还有一些货运公司 Not many stocks meeting our criteria, or, uh, or even the few that have have not had much traction, of course, notwithstanding the oil area in a few areas, in energy, in some egg stocks, and maybe some shippers.
嗯 长期来看 你知道 我们在长期趋势模型上的读数是中性的 这只是意味着 从2020年4月开始的信号 肯定已经减弱了 Um, long term, you know, we went onto a neutral reading on the long term trend model, which just simply means that that that that by signal, that was an effect from back in April 2020, has certainly weakened.
我们也看到一些其他的趋势模型开始变得消极 或者有闪光灯信号 And we're also seeing some of the other trend models starting to turn negative, or put flash cell signals.
记住这些长期信号的关键 尤其是任何类型的模型阅读 是他们经常会达到最糟糕的水平 或者在接近最低点的地方击打他们的手机信号 And the key to remember about these long term signals, and in particular, any type of model reading, is that very often they can, uh, they can go to their worst levels or hit their cell signals near lowes um.
这就是为什么当你从这些模型中得到这些长期信号时 你开始非常仔细地观察市场本身的行动 看看你是否在那个点上 你得到了那个读数 它可能会在低点附近切换 And that's why it's important that when you get these longer term signals on some of these models, you start to watch very carefully the action in the in the market itself, to see if you might be at that point where you're getting that uh, you're getting that reading, that might switch right around the lows.
嗯 纳斯达克也 或者说之前触发了同一种跑步机的手机信号 Um again. The Nasdaq also has, uh, or actually previously triggered a cell signal from the same type of a treadmill.
这是一个长期的模式 我还想指出的是 就我个人的股票购买而言 我并不使用这些模型进行交易 That's a long term model. I want to point out too, that I don't trade on these models as far as my individual stock purchases.
这只是给了我们一个关于长期趋势中证据的重要性的想法 如果你出去 你知道 航行 如果你有风在背后 风在你的帆上 如果你愿意 或者潮水在你的方向上 This just gives us an idea of whether of the weight of evidence in the longer term trend, sort of, if you're going out, you know, sailing, and if you've got the wind at your back, the wind in your sails, if you will, or the tide is going in your direction.
这就是我们开始尝试做出评估的地方无论我们是周期性的还是长期的保龄球熊市 And that's where we start to try to make that assessment whether we're a cyclical or a secular type bowler bear market.
这个我待会再讲 但看眼前的图景 这也是我真正关注的 是每只股票每天的变化 以及指数的变化 I'll talk about that in just a 2nd But looking at the immediate picture, and that's what I really focus on, is what's happening day to day with the individual stocks, and then with also, uh with the indexes.
看看纳斯达克(Nasdaq) 我们显然处于分销主导地位 Looking at the Nasdaq, we are clearly in a distribution dominant take.
你可以看到 有很多很多的发行日 You can see, there's just lots and lots of distribution days.
有几个堆积的天分散在这里 我没有标记 There are a few accumulation days scattered in here that I have not marked up.
但重要的是 如你所见 当我们进行全天跟踪时 从那时起 我们就在几天后立即进行了分布 从那时起 分布就没有减弱 我们需要看到更多的下跌和缺乏分布来得出这些指数是特殊的结论 在这种情况下 纳斯达克指数 它可能产生了一场爱 一个可靠的底部可能正在形成 But what's important, as you see, when we had the follow through day, that from that point, we had immediate distribution within just days later, and it's been, uh, the distribution has just been unabated since that time, and we need to see a more fall through and a lack of distribution to conclude that these indexes are particular, in this case, the NASDAQ, that it might have made A-A love, that a reliable bottom may be forming on.
目前 我们还不能得出这个结论 At this point, we can't make that conclusion.
嗯 看看这里的纳斯达克指数 它非常超卖 Um. Taking a look here at the Nasdaq, it's very oversold.
再次 你可以得到这是当你得到长期的阅读 开始闪烁的手机信号 你在一个位置 你深深超卖 And again, you can get this is where when you get the longer term reading, start to flash cell signals, and you're in a position where you're deeply oversold.
这是你要观察和观察的地方 市场能从超卖状态反弹吗 This is where you want to watch and see, can the market rally from an oversold condition?
他们的股票准备好了吗 这就是你可以开始看到的长期前景是否更不妙 或者我们是否接近低点 你将会恢复开关 Are their stock setting up? And that's where you can start to see whether this longer term picture is more ominous, or if maybe we're getting close to low and and you're going to get that switch back.
在这一点上 我们持续超卖 没有超卖 Um at this point, we are persistently oversold with the very see, there's no overbult reading.
这还不是最好的迹象 And that is not the greatest sign.
从更长远的角度来看 当你超卖时 你可以反弹 也可以熊市 From a longer term standpoint. When you are are oversold, you can get rallies, and bear market.
实际上 在任何一天中 反弹都会产生一些最大的百分比波动 Rallies actually produce some of the biggest percentage moves in the market on any one any given day.
你可能会在大型集会上看到 You might see in a big rally.
但不久之后 它们就消失了 but then they fizzle out, you know, shortly after.
这就是我们等待跟进的原因 我们希望确保股票正在形成 而不是仅仅因为市场 你知道 一个星期 一天或一周这里或那里有一个反弹就跳进去 And that's why we wait for follow through, and we we want to make sure the stocks are setting up, and not just jumping in just because the market has, you know, a rally here or there a week or a day or a week.
因此 我们将非常仔细地监控 因为我们持续保持超售 So again, we're going to monitor things very carefully here as we're persistently staying over sold.
当然 我们现在非常受新闻驱动 来自乌克兰的好消息肯定会推动市场反弹 甚至可能触底 Of course, we're very news driven right now, and good news coming out of Ukraine certainly could rally this market and maybe even bottom it.
嗯 现在 另一件事是 当我们处于超卖状态时 我们得到了这些长期细胞信号 通常情况下 你会开始触及裸情绪水平 这也对应着潜在的底部 UM. Now, another thing is that when we're in this oversold condition, and we're getting these longer term cell signals, very often, you'll start hitting the bare sentiment levels that correspond also with potential bottoms.
这就是我们 And that's who we
现在有投资者情报数据 are right now with the investors intelligence numbers.
我们看到 熊终于超越公牛了 We've got the, uh, the the bears have finally moved above the bulls.
如果你从长期来看 当我们低于平价线时 你会发现市场中有很多低点 And if you look long term, when we get below that, you know, parity line, if you will, um, that's where you get a lot of lows set in the market.
你会看到底部开始一个大的周期性熊市 就像我们在 哦 八 很抱歉 一个更长期的熊市 You'll get bottoms now starting a big cyclical, uh, bear market, like we did here in, oh, eight, which, I'm sorry, a more of a secular bear market.
你可以看到 我们得到了很多情绪 嗯 看空对看多 如果你愿意 看空比看多 我们仍然有一个大的下滑 You can see that we got a lot of sentiment, uh, that was bearish versus the bulls, if you will, more bears than bulls, and we still have a big slide.
所以这并不意味着仅仅因为你的情绪达到了过度的看多读数 看空读数 相反 读数并不意味着你不能再低了 So it doesn't mean that just because your sentiment gets to bullish readings, which are excessive, bearish readings, contrary a contrary and reading doesn't mean that you can't go lower.
所以不要兴奋地想 好吧 为什么要看这个 So don't get excited and think, okay, well, why look at this.
它与所有这些低潮相对应 It corresponds with all these lows.
我们一定是孤身一人 嗯 也许吧 We must be near alone. Well, maybe.
但这并不意味着我们不能进一步下滑 或者我们不能长时间保持这个水平 But that doesn't mean we can't slide even further, or or we can't stay at those levels for an extended period of time.
同样 你必须默认当前市场和股票的走势 So again, you have to really default to the action, the current action of the market and the current action of the stocks.
让这些更广泛的阅读给你一个关于你所处的区域的指导 或者环境的类型 这将帮助你如何 你如何知道 你将如何运用你的策略 And let these broader readings just give you sort of a guide of the zone that you may be in, or the type of environment, and then that will help you how, how you know, to how you will apply your tactics from that point.
嗯 再一次 我已经在这里指出了几周了 我们已经看到了情绪 嗯 在民意调查中 显示了很多悲观 Um, again, I've pointed this out for a number of weeks here, where we have seen sentiment, uh, in the polls or in the surveys, show a lot of bearishness.
人们都是这么说的 时事通讯作者和散户交易员都是这么说的 就像A-A-I投资调查一样 And that's what people are saying, newsletter writers and retail traders that are pulled like the A-A-I Investment Survey and so forth.
但我也想看看人们在做什么 那就是看跌期权的买盘 当看跌期权的买盘量开始超过看涨期权时 But I like to also see what people are doing, and that's put buying, when there starts to be an excessive amount of puts being bought versus calls.
还有通讯撰稿人 所有人的情绪都是看空的 然后他们开始附和他们在市场上的实际做法 这是一个更可靠的 呃 不太真实的 呃 从相反的立场来看的情绪 And you have the newsletter writers, you have all the sentiment where people are saying as bearish, and then they start chiming in with what they're actually doing in the market, that is a more reliable, uh, barish, uh, amount of sentiment, from a contrary and standpoint.
在这种环境下 我还没有真正看到我喜欢的场景 And I haven't really seen what I would like the scene with this type of environment that we're in.
我认为我们应该把这里的高点去掉然后在这里开始上升 I would think that we would have taken out these highs here with the put levels and and started to spike up here.
也许这还没有到来 And maybe that's still yet to come.
这并不意味着我们不需要触底 但我希望看到市场中的这种恐惧 呃 得到一些投降 也许 嗯 IBD50 这是我们通常交易的股票类型的一个很好的代表 你可以看到 这里的交易仍然非常接近它的低点 真的没有任何形式的离开底部 Doesn't mean we don't have to have that to bottom, but I would like to see that kind of fear in the market to, uh, get some capitulation, maybe, um, the IBD 50, which is a good proxy for the type of names that we were generally traffic, and you can see, is still trading very close to its lows here, and really hasn't had any type of move off the bottom here.
相对强势指的是与标普指数的表现一致 所以这15只股票没有哪只股票的表现优于其他股票 Relative strength is about about performing with the S&P, so nothing really outperforming from those 15 names.
再说一遍 我们并没有说指数中有什么动作能告诉我们有一个可靠的底部已经形成 And again, you know, we're not saying really any type of action here in the indexes that would tell us that there's a reliable bottom that's formed yet.
现在 对经济和市场来说 一个很大的风险是更高的油价 当然 我们已经经历了大幅上涨的油价 Now, a big risk here for the economy and for the market is a higher oil prices, which, of course, we've had dramatically higher oil prices.
嗯 油价之所以有风险是因为这可能会导致 通货膨胀率高于预期 或者 你知道 实际上会从现在开始加速 而现在已经处于历史高位了 Um. The reason why that the oil prices are a risk is because this could lead to, uh, inflation being higher than expected, or, or, you know, actually accelerating from here, which is already at high levels, historic high levels to begin with.
然后美联储将不得不提高利率 我们知道他们已经在提高利率了 但他们可能不得不更快或更强地提高利率 以抑制通货膨胀 这将导致或导致衰退 And then the Fed would have to raise rates, and we know they're already going to raise rates, but they might have to raise rates even quicker or or more strongly, to a curb the inflation, and that would engineer or cause a recession.
当然 还有经济衰退 这可能已经被贴现了 And the recession, of course, and that might be being discounted already.
好吧 这就是 你知道 我们有一个周期性的 一个荒芜的市场 我认为我们正处于这个状态 Okay, that's what, you know, we have a cyclical, a bare market here, which I think we're in.
我们可以折现某种放缓 We could be discounting some type of slowdown.
当然 与世界其他国家相比 美国经济在乌克兰危机和油价上涨的过程中比世界上大多数国家的经济都有更大的动力 Of course, the U-S economy, relative to the rest of the world, went into this crisis in Ukraine and into these higher oil prices with a more momentum than most economies in the world.
但是 这些事件发生的时间越长 这些地缘政治问题发生的时间越长 随着石油价格非常高 衰退就越明显 当然在欧洲 可能在美国也一样 But, but it the longer that these events take place, these geopolitical uh issues are taking place, with these oil prices very elevated, the more wristler is for recession, certainly in Europe, and possibly in the U-S as well.
现在 石油 一些人指出石油已经从这个大的基础中挣脱出来 尽管 你知道 我不确定我是否可以称之为基础 Now, oil, some have pointed out that oil has broken out of this big base, although, you know, I'm not sure if I would call this a base.
这个空间的深度大约是91% The the depth of this space would be about 91 %.
嗯 再一次 上面这个移动 Um. So again, this move up here.
问题是 这是一个突破的动作 还是一个疲惫的动作 The question is is, is this a breakaway move, or is this an exhaustion move?
当你看更长期的时候 你可以看到我们已经从06 50的低点走了很长一段路 一桶轻油 一桶原油 现在 你知道 所有的都在上升 一直到 When you look at the longer term, you can see we've come a long way off the lows at 06:50, a barrel for light, a crude, and now, you know, moving all up, all the way up into the
1点20分 你知道 1点30分 在1点30分附近 one twenties, you know, 01:30, near the 01:30 level.
最高是01 40 当然是07 27 The high was 01:40, 07:27, of course.
所以 你知道 我们在这里有一个加速度 非常快的加速度 So, you know, we've had an acceleration here, very quick acceleration.
石油价格的波动是暂时的 还是结束的 还是开始的 还有待观察 Whether it's a blow off or or an end of the oil move for now, or the beginning is yet to be seen.
这对经济当然很重要 And that certainly is important for the economy.
现在 我认为我们处在一个长期的 不好意思 周期性熊市和长期熊市的对比 Now, I think we're in A-A-A secular, I'm sorry, a cyclical bear market versus a secular.
我回顾了几次 我指出了98年的熊市 就在这里 98年的熊市 持续时间相对较短 And I, I've looked back at a few of the, uh, the precedence, and I was pointing out to the 98, which is right here, of the 98 bear market, which was relatively short lived.
另一个我认为可能会像 我现在想的更多 它更像1990年的熊市 持续的时间更长一些 Another one that I thought that this could play out like, and I'm thinking more now, that's more looking like the 1990 bear market, which lasted a little bit longer.
当然 还有 呃 战争的可能性将会降到最低点 And of course, there was, also, uh, the prospects of war will be bottomed.
当我们最终开战时 这是美国开战 当然 1月15日 市场像从地狱里飞出来的蝙蝠一样起飞了 And when we finally did go to war, and this was the U-S going to war, of course, january 15, the market took off like a bat out of hell.
嗯 现在 我们我们知道利率将会上升 如果美联储今年加息4到6次 误差大概是这样的 Um. Now, we we know that rates are going to to to rise, if the fed's going to raise rates anywhere between probably four and six times this year, give or take, uh so.
我们也知道 一般来说 除非联邦基金利率多次上调 否则我们不会进入衰退 And we also know that generally speaking, we don't go into recession until the Fed funds rate moves up a number of times.
现在 尽管我们有一些 我们有一些相当大的膨胀 So now, again, though we do have some, we have some pretty big inflation here.
真正的风险是在已经膨胀的经济中 我们有这种被认为是暂时的通货膨胀 And the real risk here is that on already inflated economy here, where we've got this inflation which was supposed to be transitory.
你在很久以前就听到过这个词 它并不是短期的 甚至也不是中期的 You heard that word over and over a long time ago, and it hasn't turned out to be transitory in the short run, or even an intermediate term.
从更长远的角度来看 但是现在 高油价 如果我们有更多的通货膨胀 更多的供应链问题 你知道 我们真的开始推动一个相当高的数字 我们正在看 你知道 可能是两位数的通货膨胀数字 这只是 你知道 我认为美联储将落后于曲线 The longer term will see. But now, the higher oil prices, if we get more inflation, any more supply chain issues, you know, we're really starting to push on a number that is a pretty high number, and we're looking at, you know, possible double digit inflation numbers, which are just, you know, would be, would be, I think the FED would be behind the curve.
到了那个时候 我就得踩刹车了 At that point, I would have to really step on the step on the brakes.
所以 再一次 可能市场在这里打折 但可能根本没有打折 或者仍然有来自乌克兰的冲击 另一个先例是2000年 2018年的总统 你可以在这里看到 内德·戴维斯指出 目前的市场 呃 是与目前的市场相匹配的 So that, again, maybe what the market is, uh, discounting here, but maybe has not discounted at all the Or maybe there's still a shock coming from Ukraine, which the other precedent is the 2000, um, the 2018 president, where you can see here, ned Davis has pointed out that this, this current market is, uh, is matching that market so far.
这在这里结束在一个额外的幻灯片 在它脱落之后然后有一个向下的加速度 And that ended in a in an additional slide here, after it came off and then had an acceleration to the downside.
这就是为什么我认为如果我们有另一条腿下降 那是一个急剧的腿下降 我认为这就是我们将在真正强劲的价格中获得的量 并带走所有这些被打击的股票 人们一直在底部捕捞 底部捕捞 最后 真的把所有人都清理干净 你知道 清理所有的钟 如果你愿意的话 And this is why I think if we did have another leg down, it was a sharp leg down, I think that's what we would get that put volume in that real strong fare, and take all these stocks that have been beaten up, and people have been bottom fishing and bottom fishing in bottom fishing, and finally, just really clean everybody out, you know, clean all the clocks, if you will.
我认为这是一个非常低的 I think that would put it a great low.
我自己也想看看 I'd love to see that myself.
我很想看另一张幻灯片 在这里放一个恐慌的低点 这样我们就可以得到一个稳固的低点 真正从那里得到一个伟大的设置 I'd love to see another slide down and really put in a panic low here, so we can get a solid low and really get a great setup coming out of there.
所以这可能是 我认为这可能会有第三个先例 So that would be the, sort of the 3rd precedent that I'm thinking that this could play out.
关键是 模型是负面的 现在很少有股票设置 Like key is here that models are negative, and there's few stock setups right now.
你所拥有的是你没有很多设置 What you have is you don't have many setups.
你有一些石油设施 你有一些能源设施 一些鸡蛋储备 和一些领域 You had some oil setups, and you had some setups in the energy, some of the egg stocks, and a few areas.
呃 但是 但是 这些价格现在又涨了 Uh, but, but again, those have run up now and now.
所以现在你已经有了在工作领域的长期库存 如果你想叫它们 领导者 So now you've got over extended stocks in the areas that were working, if you want to call those, the leaders.
然后你会有一些新的 新的突破 And then you've got few setups of coming from new, fresh breakouts.
所以现在你进入了无人区 没有多少东西可以交易 So now you're sort of in that no man's land with is not much to trade.
嗯 甚至在之前 当有一些可以交易的时候 也不是所有的事情都那么顺利 Um. And even before, when there was some to trade, not everything was working that great.
它来自一个非常挑剔的市场 所以仍然不是一个你想要变得激进的市场 It was from a very selective slice of the market, so still not a market you'd want to get aggressive.
在这个新闻驱动的环境下 天知道会发生什么 And where where in a very news driven environment here, god knows what can happen here.
每天的波动没有我预期的那么高 Day to day volatility is not as high is I would expect.
但这并不意味着他们不能不能在这里增加更多 But that doesn't mean they can't can't increase even more here.
感情用事是愚蠢的 但我们有一个发行主导磁带 我绝不会押注于感情 Sentiment is foolish, but we've got a distribution dominant tape, and I would never bet on the sentiment.
势头胜过人气 股市也胜过人气 Momentum trumps sentiment, and stocks trump sentiment.
所以 在我们获得上行的势头之前 在我们看到牵引力之前 我们必须保持谨慎 等待它结束 So until we get that momentum to the upside, get a follow through day stocks are setting up, we see traction, then you have to be cautious and just and wait it out.
嗯 让我们看一些股票 Um, let's take a look at some stocks.
股票并不多 对吧 There are not many stocks, uh?
我还想指出我在周五看到的一些事情 很多股票在突破后逆转并蹲了下来 And I'm also going to point out something that I saw on Friday, with a lot of stocks reversing and squatting from breakouts.
我从半途宣传册开始 它甚至不是一只股票 I started with Brochure Halfway, which is not really even a stock.
它更像是一种指数 几乎像是一种共同的乐趣 It's more of sort of an index, almost like a mutual fun.
这是表演很棒 我个人拥有它 It's acting great. I own it personally.
这是一段很长的艰难时期 We have it as a long rough
自购买以来约有4% 尝试在周五突破新高 但你可以看到一路蹲下 about 4% since the purchase. Try to break out on Friday into new highs, but you can see squatted all the way back.
事实上 有一大堆名字 但L和T-H 我们强调了 试图从这个小权力游戏中跳出来 虽然有点短 但它确实从这里出来了 As a matter of fact, it was a whole bunch of names, but L and T-H, which we highlighted, tried to, uh, pop out of this little power play, which was kind of short, but it did come come out of here.
可能是大量零售 Probably a lot of retail
看着它 它突然冒了出来 但它装不下 eyes on this popped it out, and it could not hold.
然后 你看 只下来了 And, you see, came only back down.
这不是我们想看到的 虽然这并不一定是一个彻底的死亡打击 但这肯定不是我们想看到的 That's not what we want to see, although that doesn't have to necessarily be a complete death blow, but that's certainly not what we want to see.
当然 还有一些其他的 来自紫罗兰莱的 There was a few others, of course, from, uh, from the violet les.
J-J-N-J-N-P-R杜松也想搬到这里来 J-J-N-J-N-P-R juniper also tried to move up here.
你可以看到下面的衣服 You can see clothes on the low here.
嗯 还有什么 Kaysy吗 Kaysy院子有一个相当大的基地 Uh, what else? Kaysy are? Kaysy yard has a pretty good size base.
你可以在这里看到 有一个小的一天暂停轴心 And you can see right here, had a little one day pause pivot.
试图在大逆转中复出 Tried to come out back in a big reversal there.
VRTX是另一个 从这个小的支点出来 有点草率 不是提图斯的支点 但试图出来 然后又回来了 VRTX was another one. Came out of this little pivot here, little sloppy, not the Titus pivot, but tried to come out and then came all the way back down.
另一种是I-S-E-E 它有另一个相当大的基地 但并没有真正出现在那里 And other one's I-S-E-E, which had another pretty good sized base, didn't really get out there.
但是你知道 如果你只是想在它移动到那么高的地方的时候跳进去 就在两天的时间里 你可能会被吸进去 然后 哇 又回来了 But you know, if you were trying to maybe just jump in as soon as it moved above that, that high, in that like two day pivot, you might have got sucked in, and then, wamo, came right back in.
这是 这些是 呃 你知道的 一个荒芜市场的踪迹 This is, these are the tracks of, uh, you know, a of a bare market.
这正是你在熊市看到的 而不是牛市 This is exactly what you see in a bear market, not in a bull market.
O reilly 另一个想出来 回到低谷 O'reilly. Another one tried to come out here, back on its lows.
甚至那只狐狸 我们被它挡住了 嗯 它试图从这里的拉回来 And even that fox, which we got stopped on, um, was trying to come up from this pull back by right here.
今天过得不错有序撤退 Had a nice day up orderly pull back.
记住 我说过那是橡胶和道路的交汇处 就在那里 And remember, I said that's where the rubber meets the road, right there.
你得在这里守着 This is where you got to hold.
现在你开始漏了 Now you start leaking off here.
现在 股票表现不佳 Now, the stock's not acting right.
这就是我们所看到的一只又一只股票 表现不太好 And this is what we're seeing Stock after stock after stock, not acting very well.
嗯 你有 你知道 当然 石油领域的股票 像我们现在拥有的T-R-G-P 上涨了大约16 5% Um, you've got, you know, of course, the stocks in the oil area, like T-R-G-P, which we currently own, up about 16 and a half percent.
随着油价的上涨 你确实得到了快速的回调 但你可以看到收盘时价格在高位 交易接近高位 仍然在上升 表现非常好 You did get a quick pull back with oil prices coming in, but you can see closed right on the high is trading near the highs, still in an uptread, acting really well.
当然 这是我们的观点 这是你想看到的 而不是那些到处都在下跌的股票 This is, of course, where our by point was um and And again, that's what you want to see, not these stocks that are failing all over the place.
我们只看到这种类型的行动在选择区域 在石油区域 当然 And we're only seeing this type of action in the select area, in the oil area, of course.
一家名为Archcoal的公司 是另一家表现很好的公司 A coal names Arch Coal, is another one that's acted really well.
还有O-V-V 在d-l-t-r上也上涨了12% 我知道你可能有一堆问题 There's O-V-V, which were also long up 12% on D-L-T-R-I know you there's probably a bunch of questions.
为什么 什么 D-L-T-R这里 嗯 所以你在这里作弊了 你知道 从那以后 我尝试了很多次 Why? What? D-L-T-R here. Um. So you had that cheat here, you know, I tried to get in, you know, a number of times since then.
通过盈利 它能够进入新的高地 并爆发 It got through earnings, it was able to get into new high ground here and break out.
现在 你撤退得很有序 我感觉这里有点不稳定 但市场也是如此 Now, you pulled back pretty orderly, and I felt like this was, it's a little bit volatile over here, but so is the market.
相对于这里的市场 它表现得很好 It's acting pretty good on a uh, you know, versus the market here.
嗯 现在你有了这种自然的回调 就在突破的时候 Um. And now you've had this natural pullback, right to the breakout.
然后 我很抱歉 很抱歉 And then, I'm sorry, sorry about that.
嗯 然后 你把车开进了雨椅 他把车开进了射击场 Um. And then, um, you pulled into the rain chair, he pulled into the range.
我只是买 你知道 拉回那个区间 因为 再一次 这是我知道这只股票表现正常与否的地方 And I'm just buying, you know, pulling back into that range, because, again, this is where I'm gonna know if this stock is acting normal or not.
你知道吗 这里真的需要一些支持 Um, you know, it should really get some support right here.
即使它进来一点 把这个低的 给你一个快速的抖出来 它真的不应该有很多 比这个低很多 And even if it comes in a bit and takes out this low, gives you a little quick shake out, it really shouldn't go a whole much, a whole lot lower than that.
这片区域应该很稳定 所以我觉得我的交易距离危险点很近 This area should really hold. So I feel like I'm trading pretty close to the danger point.
进入四分之一的位置 即使我给它 你知道 一个完整的句号 你仍然看到四分之一的句号 And with just going into a quarter position, even if I give it, you know, a full a full stop, you're still looking at a quarter of that full stop.
句号是8% So full stop is an 8% stop.
只有2%的风险 所以这是一个非常非常低的风险交易 You're looking at 2% risk. So it's a pretty, a, pretty low risk a trade at this point.
让我们看看还有什么 让我 Um, let's see what else. Let me.
让我回顾一下几个暴力的名字 Let me go over a few violent names.
我的意思是 我认为伯克希尔当然可以提高BI警惕 I mean, I think Berkshire can be put on BI alert certainly.
呃 这是一个表现很好的例子 Uh. This is one that's been acting really well.
再次交易收发 另一个表现得很好 Deal T-R again. Another one that's acting pretty well.
可能是双性警报的名字 It could be a bi alert name.
我们看看明天要给贝勒特放什么 We'll see what we're going to put on Bylert to morrow.
惠普-q公司在下面培训他们 50年代 50年代有一点下降趋势 H-P-Q um train them below. The fifties, the fifties and a little bit of a down trend.
你有作弊的地方 You got a cheat area here.
左边的货快用完了 You're running into supply on the left side here.
但同样 这可以在这里建立一个枢轴 然后通过这个低成本 But again, this could set up a pivot right here, and then come through that low cheap.
所以我会留意的 So I'd keep an eye on that.
呃 I-r-m-d和再一次 我要告诉你 我要给你最好的 Uh, I-R-M-D and And again, I'm gonna tell you, I'm giving you the best of the worst.
你知道的 我真的没有太多的股票设置 我只是在努力寻找真正干脆的股票 You know, I really there's not many stocks setups, and I'm just struggling to find anything that's really crisp.
但是这些是我们可以建立的最接近的名字 But these are some of the names that are our closest this could set up here.
好的 你在右边这里有这个运行非常压缩 所以要花时间来建立 All right, You had this run up up up here at the right side that was very compressed, so taking its time to build out.
右边完全正常 This right side is perfectly normal.
我会在这里寻找一个后撤的位置 I would look for a pull back by to form right here.
M-G-Y 我们在天然气和石油区域 Um, M-G-Y Again, we're in this gas and oil area.
另一个是从一个短的支点出来的 带着油回到这里 Another one that just ran up here, came out of a little short pivot, pulling back here with oil
价格 我想在这附近找个地方 prices. Um, I would look for a pull back by right here.
如果找到了 那就得走了 If it turns up, uh, that should really just go.
你知道 这是不正常的 I this comes in much, you know, that's acting abnormal.
这个额额 P-A-N-W 当然是 This uh uh, P-A-N-W, of course, which is
帕洛阿尔托 另一个在右边 来到这里 现在把这根杆子放在后面 Palo Alto. Another one that ran right up the right side, came in here, and now is putting on this pole back by.
这和狐狸贸易很像 我们在路上遇到了麻烦 This is similar to the fox trade, where we got a pull back by, um again, rubbers meet in the road here.
这是它的位置 它有一个表演 有一个固定 然后开始向上移动 This is where it's, it's got a performance, got a hold, and then start moving up.
但再说一遍 我不会在这些交易设置上拿大笔资金冒险 But again, I-I-I wouldn't be risking a whole lot of capital here on on these trade setups.
它们对我来说不够脆 而且数量也不够 They're just not crisp enough for me, and there's not enough of them.
Ramus是另一个尝试建立这个右边的人 这个人甚至没有在周五出来 但最终收盘在低点附近 Ramus is another one, trying to build this right side, this one that didn't even make it to come out on Friday, but ended up closing near the lows.
我想这是整个市场的特点 周五发生了很多逆转 I guess this is really characteristic of the whole market, of what's taken place on Friday, which had a lot of reversals.
SBLK在航运领域一直表现良好 SBLK has been a good performer of the shipping area.
这是市场上的另一个强势领域 Has been another, another strong area at the market.
这是有效的 你会得到第一个自然反应 This is holding up. You got that 1st natural reaction, if you will.
这不是权力游戏 This is not a power play.
它还没有上升到足够的水平 如果你要测量这个移动 嗯 大约是68% 实际上是70% 从这里开始 假设 一个月到几个月前 It hasn't gone up enough. If you were to measure this move um, it's about 68, 70 %, actually, from even from back here, let's say, one to a couple months back.
嗯 是的 你大概是百分之七 百分之八十 Uh, yeah. You're about seven, about 80 %.
所以这不是一场权力游戏 So it's not a power play.
所以 如果这是一场权力游戏 我会对此非常感兴趣 So again, if this was a power play, I'd be very interested in this.
只拉了一小段 It's only pulled back A-A short.
当他到这里的时候 有一点拉力 大概15%左右 A little bit of A-A pull back here when he got here, about 15% or so.
所以这是可以接受的撤回 So that would be acceptable pull back.
但同样 这些股票的表现要好一些 But again, these are some of the stocks that are acting a bit better.
这个S-R-R-A 是在一场强攻中建立起来的 就在进行曲的第一天 这就是它的轴心 This S-R-R-A, which was setting up in a power play, and right here on the the 1st of a march, is where it came to that pivot.
但后来它脱落了 它没有这么低 所以如果你给它一些合适的空间 你可能还在里面 But then it came off. It hadn't taken out this low, so you might still be in it if you gave it some some decent room.
这里一个可能仓位尺寸小 用一个像样的 像样的止损 Here a maybe position size small, with a decent, decent stop.
但是现在 它回到了这里 仍然支撑着 But now it's, it's coming back up here, still holding up.
让我们看看从高峰到低谷的回落 And let's see the pull back from peak to trough.
大约有20% 这是可以建立的 There's been about 20 %. So this could be one that could set up.
我想看到一个支点 但谁知道呢 也许我们不明白 I'd like to see a pivot, but who knows, maybe we don't get it.
它只是 但这是一场权力游戏 It just goes. But this is A-A power play.
这是在这里设置的 嗯 让我们看看 That's that's setting up here. Um, let's see.
仅此而已 你知道 股票表现很好 就像Z-I一样 上周就是因为这个小小的自然反应 That's about it. You know, stocks are acting well, something like a, uh, like Z-I am, which last week came out of this little natural reaction here.
这是一个很好的团队 当然 但我没有看到太多 This has been leading in a group that's been one of the better groups, of course, but I'm not seeing much.
最后 如果你还记得a-mPH 我给自己买的一只股票 我指出它是如何在疲软的市场中表现得非常非常强劲 盈利出现了增长 And and finally, if you remember A-M PH, a stock that I bought for myself, and I was pointing out how this was acting really, really strong in a weak market, uh, had a pop on earnings.
所以 这是 再一次 你知道 力量 带来力量 So this, this is, once again, you know, strength, beget strength.
在过去的几周里 我一直在指出这一点 And that was one that, you know, over the last couple weeks, I've been pointing out.
所以周五的动作还不错 So a decent move there on Friday.
好了 再说一遍 监视平台 All right, so, um, again, monitor the platform, you know.
别灰心 你知道的 Don't get discouraged that uh, you know.
匆忙地参与到市场中 当市场准备好了 你知道 投球将会出现在盘子上 希望 你知道 你应该准备好并且愿意向他们挥拳 And in a hurry to get involved in the market, just when the market's ready, you know, the pitches will come across the plate, and hopefully, you know, you should be ready and and willing to swing at them.
但与此同时 如果你做任何交易 做一些小仓位 等待牵引力 耐心等待 这将带来一个巨大的机会 But in the meantime, if if you take in any trades, take some smaller positions, wait for traction, be patient, and this will lead to a great opportunity.
所有这些裸市都会导致牛市 下跌的时间越长 跌得越深 你在这里看到的车越多 你就会创造更多的机会 因为你会把所有的周末都冲掉 All these bare markets lead to bull markets, and the longer it stays down, the deeper goes, the more carnes that you see here, the more you're going to set up a wonderful opportunity, because you're going to wash out all the weekends.
我们会回到机构购买领导者的名字上来 我们会取得一些真正伟大的进步 And we're gonna come back into names that institutions are buying the leaders, and we'll make some really great progress going forward.
要有耐心 不要让自己陷入麻烦 这样当那个时候到来时 你就可以用你的全部资本来利用它 Just be patient and don't get yourself in trouble, so when that time comes, you're able to take advantage of it with your full capital.
好了 好了 待会再和大家聊明天再看 我 马克·里奇和鲍勃·怀特斯曼1130在训练室做问答 All right, all right, talk to guys later and see it tomorrow for q and A uh, with myself, mark Ritchie and Bob Whitesman in the training room at 1130.
再见 再见 Bye, bye.