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hello everyone and welcome back we're delighted
to work each person tactical security specialists used
Roman whose in this session some practical
trading tools rituals cop Richard call first
roman thank you so much for joining us thank you
can you hear me now
yeah everything's okay everything's great concedes
just find its stores alright sounds great wall
thank you so much for having me and welcome to this session
on Wyckoff methodology I am
some quick worse about myself I hate each wycoff
at our Golden Gate University in San Francisco
I also teach wycoff sacred outside of
arm Golden Gate I E use it I am
up for my or on trade in and specifically for
on consulting and trade in arm a.m.
for hedge funds and other institutional traders
are there is a big insurers arm a
institutional community for these
mess specific methodology and specifically for
of trend analysis and become pains so those big institutions to use the
method to identify launch on trance like
now from me you're too helped 35 years
on so this kind of like Mike quick background
aren't we have only 30 minutes today but I'm I thought that
really really quickly I will go through this children mechanisms
that I like us method arm presents
I love for selection process
overstock are and we'll go through
on comparative and relative analysis will go through
position on the stock in the trading range will also
I'll go through the confirmation on the supply and demand I'll and also
will quickly look at market directional bias
so those are the main force field rheostat white Christmas at
users to are select specific stocks
and to identify
the time in up that selection on because this is
on an abbreviated session are for those of you who would be interested
to iron lit to hear more
are on the same subject in Calif like to expand on this case study were gonna
look at the Home Depot
as our case study there's gonna be a two of Commons free webinars on the 19th and
the 26
I it's three thirty pacific time so arm you can
are differently contact me to sign up for those arms webinars
are if you'd like to receiving any more information on the classes
I'll just email me or I'm you have the address here
are to go to and check out the classes the presentation slides are going to be
available so we can just email me
and I will gladly send you this a.m. slights
alright on so this presentation for is for educational purposes
I am only and art
I'm not getting any advice you're just showing how
we analyze the are the market or the stock
use in the white Christmas alright so who was
wycoff on definitely there's some kind of mistake about
his personality because I think that's why Cup is not
popularized in of in the technical analysis community
on but she played a big role at the beginning of last century
as one of the first a.m. you know technicians
arm who has developed quite a lot of tools are
a lot of more than technicians on when I talk to them
on they actually all there's far too wycoff
original works and how a lot of the indicators that they create
on arch based on those ideas that like a developed
wycoff was are contemporary to a lot of great
technical analysts all the time Lake can
Elliott I'll Edwards and Mikey she also was
on a a contemporary too great
campaign operatives a lecture saloon
marching scheme or JP Morgan on she had an axis to jeseline Warren James
keen and on what he has done is he
core defied a lot of the principles that those
arm great campaign traders used arm
in there investment trade and
as a result he has created are a course for the public
on which he later aren't sold through this stock market Institute stock market
Institute for those of you who might know
are still in existence and you can on get the information
arm from them on why cost method as well
so cheap definitely contributed to the field
a lot on in the last century are the methodology is very vast
arms I think that wycoff was somewhat agree when she was creating them to
college and she wanted
really I'll to give the keys to the
a publican to the individual investors alum and
on for them to be able are
to make all the disc investment decisions based on
just one this ideology on to define the market direction
to define the selection of the stocks that on you want to participate in
on to understand where to enter this stock to understand how to actually
are perceived was to trade management and so on so forth
so on methodology is quite broad
and I'm it on goes into different aspects of technical analysis
on this is a hypothetical price on
cycle on that have drawn sure and on
the methodology discusses and concentrates
mostly on on the areas of consolidation so
an area of accumulation right here and an air the distribution
on in the reason why is because this is where the trance
start so on wycoff
word on have I am a hypothesis is
that the price is be in mort
by arm a composite men
she was referring to big institutional
interests our biggest tattoo show all players
on as a composite man and she would say that during the
accumulation our are trading ranges or consolidations
on the composite man would be inclined to action like this stock
and once the as the are big position is established and was the perspective
in the future perception of a.m. the improvement on the fundamental factor so
the market conditions
the price will be marked up out of this area
and it will start random and then once the trend
is oh where and the conditions have changed or the
perception is gonna change arm in the future
Rd composite operate over the composite man
will start I'm unload in on
on the position and therefore distribute to stocks
at a higher price levels so our goal
as waco chance and as traders on is just to be
able to identify this areas of accumulation or distribution
and are we want to understand what
they are is this an accumulation our distribution
we want also to understand when exactly the price
is goin' out to this accumulation so we want to
find some kind of time in mechanism arm
to get on the train and are earlier arm and then
to be able just to stay it was the whole trend until we ship qty
distribution area
stretch your so to do that are wycoff would use
on the selection Childress the first filter is always
about the market so we want to understand what the market is doing and
what direction the market
is going right now and we want to understand it from the different
on are time frames long term intermediate and short-term
then after that we would go on
two different on a stock selection shelters
on one of them is going to be the structural shift
so the structural shelter is basically
arm look looks into the consolidation
are whether its accumulation and distribution and
we would do the you phase analysis on Wyckoff point analysis
which basically tells us where we are in the trading
which so we would say that are at Safeway ranch phase C
we r test in on the supply
to support levels and the price is ready
to leave the trading range or at least to do the markup
are through the trade rich on we would also look at the comparative or relative
strength shelter
which will help us to identify those stocks that potentially
will outperform or underperform in the next
are trend up or in the next round
on to the downside we also would look for
I am the confirmation of the supply and demand the filter
on to confirm that we on the springboard
the springboard is the position on this stock
arm where the stock has absorb the supply
it's making the higher highs higher lows and it's ready to leave the trading
range
I and going to the major tramped so
this main force field service and this is kind of like a very simplified
approach of looking at how wycoff would arm
go through the selection mechanism alright so let's look at this case study
that we have
this is a chart of Home Depot and this is a monthly chart
so for those in Johor intraday aren't
traders
or swing traders this is also relevant to
on are to your time frame as well
on because the structure or the consolidation the trading range
always gonna have the same on principles behind a house being constructed
or how specific points are going to be tested
or what should happen I'm after the price most out-of-date reading Regence
on so far so you can apply the same principles
in any of the time frames so for our case study
we will be a arm looking at this latest
arm a trading range this is kind of like a very small
are trading retrace your in Home Depot I a at this trading range was
arc on I in 2013-2014
and again we're gonna look at the U are market directional bias first and we're
going to look at the raw tough comparatives trance
we're gonna look at the a structure or the trading range
we're gonna look at supply and demand if all those four filters
on are guy checked out for us on
then Home Depot de France is going to be one of those
aren't stocks that we would consider at this point
are you know to established position alright so let's look first at the
at the market a directional bias so
on this is a very common question you know from
our clients and students that they get on s2 will
how do I define a market directional bias in other wars
what is the current rent are trained in of a trend and down we gone sideways
so on definitely there are quite a few tools that you can use
and on I use on actually
are several tools not just one but
I'm gonna give you very practical very simple
very visual tool that on
you can on use and please remember that
the tops and bottoms Lake Francis in 2000
8 2009 they don't happen
overnight they it takes time for those arm
a trading structures to develop
so you have plenty of time are to make
arm debt to come up was the definition for the market
so that on is a tool that I want
on to give you a is I want you to look at both
this supply or the volume and the price structure
was what's happenin on was the highs and the lows
as probably one of the simplistic tools so as I see here
there is a break to the downside and supplies increase in all volumes
increase in
she on there is no follow-up
after that there is some kinda failure love the rally
and now said this feeling there is another break to the downside and it
also has an increase in the supply
so we ended in environment where we make ends lolos
lower highs and supply is increase in on the way down
so to on
this is the definition of did bear trent on
and at this is a very conventional tactical analysis definition of that
are downtrend on
to change this we need I follow
are through or on the rally and then
arms we need a contraction on the supply so we're just looking for that type of
the
a change of character we see that
on the next on attempt to go off price-to-sales
on are on the breakdown I we see the increase in the supply again
down on the next break down we see that the price goes down
but supply contracts so on there is some
kind of change already but we still price wise is not doing well
and then only after break in this high
we have a very much confirmed on major trent
change and on this is where
wycoff would concentrate his attention on the selection of the stocks
on she would also go into the definition of
the trading range itself and on some other positions will be opened early on
after this low and the you know that
with
the considered as a sprain and as the price goes through the trading range in
a sign of strength
I but in a very simple mechanical charms
you can define a change of character like this so what about the current
market
and are what is happening with the current market well we had
im significant increase on the supplies
in 2010 and 2011 on
there was no significant increase in the supply and I'll show you on the next
chart
on in 2013-14
also 15 our price wise with a steel
making the higher highs and higher lows soul nothing really has changed
are since 2009 and this is the current picture
the dow industrial and what do we see here arm
the questions that we would have to ask ourselves is what what's
what's the launch on intermediate and short-term tramped
so as I'm looking at this picture and the again it's a very simplistic visual
tool
on I know that we r
most likely in the secular arm bull market
was the higher highs and higher lows on
we r in the intermediate up trent and short term
we are consolidating there is no any structural damage
arms of the significant higher lows so what does the last significant high loss
while this
areas trace your ok so below and then
december general straight year on
there is no really significant supply only increase in the supply
after 2011 2010 we
actually have contraction of both supply and didn't
on now another common question that
on a are usually answer is well how come the price
actually advance so much you know without
arm the are a deep demand to increase in
all it's just a function of the supply if supply is low then
are the price can defense a travel up
so now that we've defined that the market is up
and on October lows gonna be a
of our interests you know for the case study we're gonna go into the
our comparative relish analysis so this is the picture of how wycoff would
actually look
all one hundred years ago at the comparative stressed out said he would
put one chart
over another she would put the stock on
and then let's say market proxy or
an industry group and she would analyzed the
arm significant hice insignificance lows
in this slow between those two so francis race year
I could see that from this low to this law comparatively
the slope might be. on in favor of the stock of the Home Depot
and I could see that there is some kind of strength right here now
of course we can use more modern tools you need to do the same analysis
and this is the daily on Home Depot in this is the
trading range that we're gonna look at on and we see that during this trading
range
the relative strength and the relative strength this is not
the relative strength indicator this is actually a relative strength ratio
on I'm is in a downtrend
so relative strength by itself as the price also can't rent and it's extremely
important to understand this concept and to you
on actually think of relative strength as
the tool that you can use in your trend analysis
so was the trance we always look for the change of character
so francis a break of the trend or on
the relative strengths lie in spending more time about the morning average
I'm higher highs higher lows this is an indication of
improvement so are improvement in the relative strengths and this is what we
wanna see
from the start that we want to select iron
so the Home Depot act a.m. definitely present at us here
where's on a great selection based on the relative strengths in on the
comparative straight
now when you do this type of the analysis on
arms and when I do this type of analysis I always look
at I'm Dean improvement in their rank in
on the relative strength for not just the start
but also for the industry group and for the piers
in that industry group and I could see here from shit map
dat on we r our ranking is unproven
you know from this point are to this high
we went from the ranking of 77 27
so that's a great improvement i'm looking at the industry group
on and it's doing the same same there is improvement in the industry group so
that just confirms that the purest are
our full line this suit and that there is some kind of stand magical Bahrein
arm that's going on on by big interest by big institutions
alright once we've done that
and we see that the relative strength in the comparative strengths is there for
us
we want to look at the year structural analysis now why Cup has developed the
whole
master and two how to look at the consolidation
on of course we would
was this session we can't really go into the details but basically the idea was
ask you look at the consolidation she wanted to understand
where to stop in action happens off from the previous trent
where the building of course happens you know and what part of the consolidation
where the final test happens on
test in that seen the accumulation the previous lows
and getting that supply a to support level
and where the initial markups during the I
within the trading range and then the mark
up out with the tree chapman's if we can identify
those phases and those defense
in consolidation we can on
I establish a position on
in what wycoff called am by Zach
so all of this right here is a bison so we want to buy
as the price Mar has been marked out through the trading range
and then slightly out so let's look at our case study
Home Depot on race year this is a weekly
the same trading range but just weekly we had this talk in action
was the climactic action race year phase a the intention of AZ is always to stop
the current round
and then car to go into the consolidation or
just to reverse the trend I we are building the cores and phase B
the final test happens in faced see as a last point of support and don't worry
about this like a semantics you now
a if you want to study those more on it's definitely a lot of on your
to on identified those phases and
those like a freelance and and this meant XI gonna be easy for you
are we looking for that sign a strange on
first mark-up out of are slightly out of the trading range
and the backing up action to the previous resistance
that axe now is support so everything is here for us in this trading range
on in a by October of 2000 40-inch
are structurally so that's a big check for us so relative strengths is good
market is good
we are at the correct structural position let's look at the supply and
demand
as the last confirmation on so this is a slight usually that they give to miss
chance as a reminder of
what supplies signatures weekend there um
half in the on accumulation on
I'm just gonna skip the slight and just show the same
schematics here under this on trading range that
we looking at and generally we look at the structure
and we wanna see what supplies to N you know during this structure
and we see that supply is on gradually inconsistently decrease in
are from phase a two-phase see and this is what we wanna see so we see their
absorption
of this supply through this whole structure and then once we see
arm higher highs and higher lows this is definitely the place where we gonna
iron want to become very very active in our
not just a selection but considering open position alright
and are put in all of these things together now
on we went through the market structure on
we defined the market bias on ab tak toh below we have
at launch on Trent up intermedia trent
are of short term it was a reaction
which is great because in during the reactions this is where we want to be
active
this is where we want to make our selection this is where we want to find
the stocks that they're gonna be stronger during that reaction than the
market
or the ante eu a then the piers then we went into the comparative relative
strength analysis
which you find that strange I we've find
we found the confirmation I love the change of character on the relative
strengths we confirm
thats trance on a by what the industry peers
doing as well then we want to this structural analysis
and we said okay we'll assures our faces
and structurally we are at the great point we r on
a before a major
a.m. advance on in that on
I of prices and after that
we just come from that was the supply and demand there was definitely an
absorption of the supply
was the higher highs and higher lows and trace D and this is where we want to be
so all of those filters
I am with checked and arm
that's basically very simplified view of how
shoes and the wycoff method we would
make our selection now definitely on
the rust so many tools and techniques
principles and rules that we really have to use for each of the filters here
and this is primarily the I'm start to use that we half
arm you know when we're on up
when we go through the wax method are but in a very simplistic terms this is
are the selection process that on I just wanted to present to you today
and marketing that said you know I think I'm
I'm on time right so if we have a nick on questions in all
I'll be happy to entertain roman thank you so much for joining us
and if anyone does have any questions feel free to take them in right now
and I'll read in the Roman because we do have a couple minutes left
do you have any information about your weapon
a ok what would be the cell signal
alright so
as was to buy signal we also would like to see
some kind of talk information so that would be a distribution for mission
on I don't have the arm schematic so the slides on
on this formation but let's just take this example right here
on and this is how I usually with even
like talk to my students of my clients so what do we see here from this low
straight here from facie
have an established on upswing
so the biggest reactionary cheer is probably this October reaction
share so I would be looking for this
type of the reaction for me to are consider some kind of
on a short charm on
I am head into the position
I'll if this reaction will exceed
the previous reaction this is going to be a big sign right here this is a
change of character
and also on the relative strength I would wanna seeee
on I'll some kind of reaction that is going to be a larger than let's say this
one
on this one so any type of change of character
on on any of the filters that we went through
would be you %uh the kiss I'm are you know of four accid
for the supply Francis we would look at all the supplies
on signatures that we had on the way up and we wanna see you
not just a price break but the confirmation of the supply-side
increases the supply
some tool that would be larger than this so this
right here
I want to follow the floor analyses
sorry say again which follow the four analyses
the which houses the wycoff
analyses the swirls all you
you know what I just said the change of character yet differently
you know on I ice actually spend a lot of time
arm our we stood as just exercise and that just
single principles a change of character is extremely important
on because out once you see that
there is some kind of change of character you know that there is a
change of environment
so from and trend in environment you can go into non trends in environment so you
can go to the car to Trenton
marked so kind of like the same concept here
arm where is the access point will you wanna find where this
this change of character is gonna com and you know that you can
of find it in the price action you can find it in the supply-demand Cygnus you
can find it on the air in the relative stretch
a singer as well I hope I'm I'm answering this question I
didn't fully understand the question I'll
while were two questions other would you please repeat your email contact
information again
and you have a personal website sure
on so arm my email
is why cover so shirts gmail dot com so again
if you'd like to receive this lies at this presentation online information
email me I'll gladly send on the slights
on to you on also this website rate here like a family to extort column
which just launched it so it still in congress later
beta test test in but there is
on definitely information on all of the classes this is the website right here
so all the classes that on we have in march in April I put them in here so you
can browse and
here see if there are any of France that you would like to
participate thank you so much for a min I'm afraid we are out of time now
ice on it thanks again for joining us and thanks everyone for attending today Subtitles End: mo.dbxdb.com