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When I was a student here in Oxford in the 1970s,

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the future of the world was bleak.

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The population explosion was unstoppable.

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Global famine was inevitable.

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A cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment

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was going to shorten our lives.

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The acid rain was falling on the forests.

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The desert was advancing by a mile or two a year.

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The oil was running out.

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And a nuclear winter would finish us off.

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None of those things happened.

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(Laughter)

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And astonishingly, if you look at what actually happened in my lifetime,

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the average per-capita income

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of the average person on the planet,

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in real terms, adjusted for inflation,

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has tripled.

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Lifespan is up by 30 percent in my lifetime.

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Child mortality is down by two-thirds.

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Per-capita food production

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is up by a third.

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And all this at a time when the population has doubled.

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How did we achieve that -- whether you think it's a good thing or not --

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How did we achieve that?

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How did we become

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the only species

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that becomes more prosperous

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as it becomes more populous?

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The size of the blob in this graph represents the size of the population.

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And the level of the graph

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represents GDP per capita.

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I think to answer that question

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you need to understand

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how human beings bring together their brains

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and enable their ideas to combine and recombine,

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to meet and, indeed, to mate.

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In other words, you need to understand

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how ideas have sex.

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I want you to imagine

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how we got from making objects like this

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to making objects like this.

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These are both real objects.

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One is an Acheulean hand axe from half a million years ago

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of the kind made by Homo erectus.

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The other is obviously a computer mouse.

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They're both exactly the same size and shape to an uncanny degree.

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I've tried to work out which is bigger,

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and it's almost impossible.

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And that's because they're both designed to fit the human hand.

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They're both technologies. In the end, their similarity is not that interesting.

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It just tells you they were both designed to fit the human hand.

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The differences are what interest me.

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Because the one on the left was made to a pretty unvarying design

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for about a million years --

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from one-and-a-half million years ago to half a million years ago.

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Homo erectus made the same tool

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for 30,000 generations.

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Of course there were a few changes,

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but tools changed slower than skeletons in those days.

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There was no progress, no innovation.

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It's an extraordinary phenomenon, but it's true.

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Whereas the object on the right is obsolete after five years.

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And there's another difference too,

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which is the object on the left is made from one substance.

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The object on the right is made from

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a confection of different substances,

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from silicon and metal and plastic and so on.

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And more than that, it's a confection of different ideas,

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the idea of plastic, the idea of a laser,

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the idea of transistors.

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They've all been combined together in this technology.

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And it's this combination,

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this cumulative technology, that intrigues me.

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Because I think it's the secret to understanding

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what's happening in the world.

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My body's an accumulation of ideas too,

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the idea of skin cells, the idea of brain cells, the idea of liver cells.

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They've come together.

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How does evolution do cumulative, combinatorial things?

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Well, it uses sexual reproduction.

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In an asexual species, if you get two different mutations in different creatures,

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a green one and a red one,

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then one has to be better than the other.

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One goes extinct for the other to survive.

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But if you have a sexual species,

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then it's possible for an individual

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to inherit both mutations

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from different lineages.

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So what sex does is it enables the individual

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to draw upon

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the genetic innovations of the whole species.

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It's not confined to its own lineage.

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What's the process that's having the same effect

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in cultural evolution

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as sex is having in biological evolution?

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And I think the answer is exchange,

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the habit of exchanging one thing for another.

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It's a unique human feature.

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No other animal does it.

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You can teach them in the laboratory to do a little bit of exchange.

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And indeed there's reciprocity in other animals.

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But the exchange of one object for another never happens.

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As Adam Smith said, "No made ever saw a dog

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make a fair exchange of a bone with another dog."

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(Laughter)

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You can have culture without exchange.

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You can have, as it were, asexual culture.

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Chimpanzees, killer whales, these kinds of creatures, they have culture.

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They teach each other traditions

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which are handed down from parent to offspring.

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In this case, chimpanzees teaching each other

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how to crack nuts with rocks.

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But the difference is

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that these cultures never expand, never grow,

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never accumulate, never become combinatorial.

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And the reason is because

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there is no sex, as it were,

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there is no exchange of ideas.

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Chimpanzee troops have different cultures in different troops.

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There's no exchange of ideas between them.

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And why does exchange raise living standards?

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Well, the answer came from David Ricardo in 1817.

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And here is a Stone Age version of his story,

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although he told it in terms of trade between countries.

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Adam takes four hours to make a spear and three hours to make an axe.

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Oz takes one hour to make a spear and two hours to make an axe.

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So Oz is better at both spears and axes than Adam.

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He doesn't need Adam.

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He can make his own spears and axes.

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Well no, because if you think about it,

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if Oz makes two spears and Adam make two axes,

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and then they trade,

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then they will each have saved an hour of work.

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And the more they do this, the more true it's going to be.

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Because the more they do this, the better Adam is going to get at making axes,

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and the better Oz is going to get at making spears.

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So the gains from trade are only going to grow.

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And this is one of the beauties of exchange,

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is it actually creates the momentum

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for more specialization,

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which creates the momentum for more exchange and so on.

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Adam and Oz both saved an hour of time.

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That is prosperity, the saving of time

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in satisfying your needs.

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Ask yourself how long you would have to work

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to provide for yourself

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an hour of reading light this evening to read a book by.

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If you had to start from scratch, let's say you go out into the countryside.

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You find a sheep. You kill it. You get the fat of of it.

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You render it down. You make a candle, etc. etc.

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How long is it going to take you? Quite a long time.

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How long do you actually have to work

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to earn an hour of reading light

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if you're on the average wage in Britain today?

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And the answer is about half a second.

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Back in 1950,

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you would have had to work for eight seconds on the average wage

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to acquire that much light.

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And that's seven and a half seconds of prosperity that you've gained.

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Since 1950, as it were.

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Because that's seven and a half seconds in which you can do something else.

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Or you can acquire another good or service.

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And back in 1880,

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it would have been 15 minutes

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to earn that amount of light from the average wage.

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Back in 1800,

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you'd have had to work six hours

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to earn a candle that could burn for an hour.

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In other words, the average person on the average wage

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could not afford a candle in 1800.

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Go back to this image of the axe and the mouse,

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and ask yourself: "Who made them and for who?"

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The stone axe was made by someone for himself.

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It was self-sufficiency. 

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We call that poverty these days.

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But the object on the right

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was made for me by other people.

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How many other people?

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Tens? Hundreds? Thousands?

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You know, I think it's probably millions.

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Because you've to include the man who grew the coffee,

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which was brewed for the man who was on the oil rig,

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who was drilling for oil, which was going to be made into the plastic, etc.

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They were all working for me,

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to make a mouse for me.

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And that's the way society works.

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That's what we've achieved as a species.

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In the old days, if you were rich,

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you literally had people working for you. 

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That's how you got to be rich; you employed them.

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Louis XIV had a lot of people working for him.

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They made his silly outfits, like this.

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(Laughter)

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And they did his silly hairstyles, or whatever.

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He had 498 people

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to prepare his dinner every night.

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But a modern tourist going around the palace of Versailles

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and looking at Louis XIV's pictures,

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he has 498 people doing his dinner tonight too.

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They're in bistros and cafes and restaurants

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and shops all over Paris.

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And they're all ready to serve you at an hour's notice with an excellent meal

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that's probably got higher quality 

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than Louis XIV even had.

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And that's what we've done, because we're all working for each other.

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We're able to draw upon specialization and exchange

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to raise each other's living standards.

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Now, you do get other animals working for each other too.

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Ants are a classic example; workers work for queens and queens work for workers.

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But there's a big difference,

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which is that it only happens within the colony.

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There's no working for each other across the colonies.

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And the reason for that is because there's a reproductive division of labor.

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That is to say, they specialize with respect to reproduction.

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The queen does it all.

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In our species, we don't like doing that.

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It's the one thing we insist on doing for ourselves, is reproduction.

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(Laughter)

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Even in England, we don't leave reproduction to the Queen.

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(Applause)

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So when did this habit start?

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And how long has it been going on? And what does it mean?

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Well, I think, probably, the oldest version of this

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is probably the sexual division of labor.

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But I've got no evidence for that.

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It just looks like the first thing we did

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was work male for female and female for male.

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In all hunter-gatherer societies today,

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there's a foraging division of labor

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between, on the whole, hunting males and gathering females.

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It isn't always quite that simple.

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But there's a distinction between

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specialized roles between males and females.

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And the beauty of this system

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is that it benefits both sides.

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The woman knows

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that, in the Hadzas' case here --

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digging roots to share with men in exchange for meat --

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she knows that all she has to do to get access to protein

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is to dig some extra roots and trade them for meat.

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And she doesn't have to go on an exhausting hunt

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and try and kill a warthog.

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And the man knows that he doesn't have to do any digging

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to get roots.

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All he has to do is make sure that when he kills a warthog

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it's big enough to share some.

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And so both sides raise each other's standards of living

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through the sexual division of labor.

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When did this happen? We don't know, but it's possible

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that neanderthals didn't do this.

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They were a highly cooperative species.

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They were a highly intelligent species.

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Their brains on average, by the end, were bigger than yours and mine

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in this room today.

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They were imaginative. They buried their dead.

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They had language probably,

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because we know they had the FOXP2 gene of the same kind as us,

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which was discovered here in Oxford.

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And it looks like they probably had linguistic skills.

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They were brilliant people. I'm not dissing the neanderthals.

261
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But there's no evidence

262
00:10:37,330 --> 00:10:39,330
of a sexual division of labor.

263
00:10:39,330 --> 00:10:42,330
There's no evidence of gathering behavior by females.

264
00:10:42,330 --> 00:10:45,330
It looks like the females were cooperative hunters with the men.

265
00:10:46,330 --> 00:10:48,330
And the other thing there's no evidence for

266
00:10:48,330 --> 00:10:50,330
is exchange between groups.

267
00:10:51,330 --> 00:10:54,330
Because the objects that you find in neanderthal remains,

268
00:10:54,330 --> 00:10:56,330
the tools they made,

269
00:10:56,330 --> 00:10:58,330
are always made from local materials.

270
00:10:58,330 --> 00:11:00,330
For example, in the Caucasus

271
00:11:00,330 --> 00:11:03,330
there's a site where you find local neanderthal tools.

272
00:11:03,330 --> 00:11:05,330
They're always made from local chert.

273
00:11:05,330 --> 00:11:07,330
In the same valley there are modern human remains

274
00:11:07,330 --> 00:11:09,330
from about the same date, 30,000 years ago.

275
00:11:09,330 --> 00:11:11,330
And some of those are from local chert,

276
00:11:11,330 --> 00:11:13,330
but more -- but many of them are made

277
00:11:13,330 --> 00:11:15,330
from obsidian from a long way away.

278
00:11:15,330 --> 00:11:17,330
And when human beings began

279
00:11:17,330 --> 00:11:19,330
moving objects around like this,

280
00:11:19,330 --> 00:11:22,330
it was evidence that they were exchanging between groups.

281
00:11:22,330 --> 00:11:25,330
Trade is 10 times as old as farming.

282
00:11:25,330 --> 00:11:28,330
People forget that. People think of trade as a modern thing.

283
00:11:28,330 --> 00:11:30,330
Exchange between groups has been going on

284
00:11:30,330 --> 00:11:33,330
for a hundred thousand years.

285
00:11:33,330 --> 00:11:35,330
And the early evidence for it crops up

286
00:11:35,330 --> 00:11:38,330
somewhere between 80 and 120,000 years ago in Africa,

287
00:11:38,330 --> 00:11:41,330
when you see obsidian and jasper and other things

288
00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:44,330
moving long distances in Ethiopia.

289
00:11:44,330 --> 00:11:46,330
You also see seashells --

290
00:11:46,330 --> 00:11:48,330
as discovered by a team here in Oxford --

291
00:11:48,330 --> 00:11:50,330
moving 125 miles inland

292
00:11:50,330 --> 00:11:53,330
from the Mediterranean in Algeria.

293
00:11:53,330 --> 00:11:55,330
And that's evidence that people

294
00:11:55,330 --> 00:11:57,330
have started exchanging between groups.

295
00:11:57,330 --> 00:11:59,330
And that will have led to specialization.

296
00:11:59,330 --> 00:12:01,330
How do you know that long-distance movement

297
00:12:01,330 --> 00:12:04,330
means trade rather than migration?

298
00:12:04,330 --> 00:12:06,330
Well, you look at modern hunter gatherers like aboriginals,

299
00:12:06,330 --> 00:12:09,330
who quarried for stone axes at a place called Mt. Isa,

300
00:12:09,330 --> 00:12:12,330
which was a quarry owned by the Kalkadoon tribe.

301
00:12:12,330 --> 00:12:14,330
They traded them with their neighbors

302
00:12:14,330 --> 00:12:16,330
for things like stingray barbs.

303
00:12:16,330 --> 00:12:18,330
And the consequence was that stone axes

304
00:12:18,330 --> 00:12:20,330
ended up over a large part of Australia.

305
00:12:20,330 --> 00:12:22,330
So long-distance movement of tools

306
00:12:22,330 --> 00:12:25,330
is a sign of trade, not migration.

307
00:12:25,330 --> 00:12:28,330
What happens when you cut people off from exchange,

308
00:12:28,330 --> 00:12:31,330
from the ability to exchange and specialize?

309
00:12:31,330 --> 00:12:33,330
And the answer is that,

310
00:12:33,330 --> 00:12:35,330
not only do you slow down technological progress,

311
00:12:35,330 --> 00:12:38,330
you can actually throw it into reverse.

312
00:12:38,330 --> 00:12:40,330
An example is Tasmania.

313
00:12:40,330 --> 00:12:43,330
When the sea level rose, and Tasmania became an island 10,000 years ago,

314
00:12:43,330 --> 00:12:45,330
the people on it, not only experienced

315
00:12:45,330 --> 00:12:48,330
slower progress than people on the mainland,

316
00:12:48,330 --> 00:12:50,330
they actually experienced regress.

317
00:12:50,330 --> 00:12:52,330
They gave up the ability to make [bone] tools

318
00:12:52,330 --> 00:12:54,330
and fishing equipment and clothing

319
00:12:54,330 --> 00:12:57,330
because the population of about 4,000 people

320
00:12:57,330 --> 00:12:59,330
was simply not large enough

321
00:12:59,330 --> 00:13:01,330
to maintain the specialized skills

322
00:13:01,330 --> 00:13:04,330
necessary to keep the technology they had.

323
00:13:04,330 --> 00:13:06,330
It's as if the people in this room were plonked on a desert island.

324
00:13:06,330 --> 00:13:08,330
How many of the things in our pockets

325
00:13:08,330 --> 00:13:11,330
could we continue to make after 10,000 years?

326
00:13:12,330 --> 00:13:14,330
It didn't happen in Tierra del Fuego --

327
00:13:14,330 --> 00:13:16,330
similar island, similar people.

328
00:13:16,330 --> 00:13:18,330
The reason, because Tierra del Fuego

329
00:13:18,330 --> 00:13:21,330
is separated from South America by a much narrower straight.

330
00:13:21,330 --> 00:13:23,330
And there was trading contact across that straight

331
00:13:23,330 --> 00:13:25,330
throughout 10,000 years.

332
00:13:25,330 --> 00:13:28,330
The Tasmanians were isolated.

333
00:13:28,330 --> 00:13:30,330
Go back to this image again

334
00:13:30,330 --> 00:13:33,330
and ask yourself, not only who made it and for who,

335
00:13:33,330 --> 00:13:36,330
but who knew how to make it.

336
00:13:36,330 --> 00:13:39,330
In the case of the stone axe, the man who made it knew how to make it.

337
00:13:39,330 --> 00:13:42,330
But who knows how to make a computer mouse?

338
00:13:42,330 --> 00:13:45,330
Nobody, literally nobody.

339
00:13:45,330 --> 00:13:48,330
There is nobody on the planet who knows how to make a computer mouse.

340
00:13:48,330 --> 00:13:50,330
I mean this quite seriously.

341
00:13:50,330 --> 00:13:52,330
The president of the computer mouse company doesn't know.

342
00:13:52,330 --> 00:13:55,330
He just knows how to run a company.

343
00:13:55,330 --> 00:13:57,330
The person on the assembly line doesn't know

344
00:13:57,330 --> 00:13:59,330
because he doesn't know how to drill an oil well

345
00:13:59,330 --> 00:14:02,330
to get oil out to make plastic, and so on.

346
00:14:02,330 --> 00:14:05,330
We all know little bits, but none of us knows the whole.

347
00:14:05,330 --> 00:14:07,330
I am of course quoting from a famous essay

348
00:14:07,330 --> 00:14:10,330
by Leonard Read, the economist in the 1950s,

349
00:14:10,330 --> 00:14:12,330
called "I, Pencil"

350
00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:15,330
in which he wrote about how a pencil came to be made,

351
00:14:15,330 --> 00:14:18,330
and how nobody knows even how to make a pencil,

352
00:14:18,330 --> 00:14:21,330
because the people who assemble it don't know how to mine graphite.

353
00:14:21,330 --> 00:14:24,330
And they don't know how to fell trees and that kind of thing.

354
00:14:24,330 --> 00:14:26,330
And what we've done in human society,

355
00:14:26,330 --> 00:14:28,330
through exchange and specialization,

356
00:14:28,330 --> 00:14:30,330
is we've created

357
00:14:30,330 --> 00:14:33,330
the ability to do things that we don't even understand.

358
00:14:33,330 --> 00:14:35,330
It's not the same with language.

359
00:14:35,330 --> 00:14:37,330
With language we have to transfer ideas

360
00:14:37,330 --> 00:14:40,330
that we understand with each other.

361
00:14:40,330 --> 00:14:42,330
But with technology,

362
00:14:42,330 --> 00:14:44,330
we can actually do things that are beyond our capabilities.

363
00:14:44,330 --> 00:14:47,330
We've gone beyond the capacity of the human mind

364
00:14:47,330 --> 00:14:49,330
to an extraordinary degree.

365
00:14:49,330 --> 00:14:51,330
And by the way,

366
00:14:51,330 --> 00:14:54,330
that's one of the reasons that I'm not interested

367
00:14:54,330 --> 00:14:56,330
in the debate about I.Q.,

368
00:14:56,330 --> 00:14:59,330
about whether some groups have higher I.Q.s that other groups.

369
00:14:59,330 --> 00:15:01,330
It's completely irrelevant.

370
00:15:01,330 --> 00:15:04,330
What's relevant to a society

371
00:15:04,330 --> 00:15:07,330
is how well people are communicating their ideas,

372
00:15:07,330 --> 00:15:09,330
and how well they're cooperating,

373
00:15:09,330 --> 00:15:11,330
not how clever their individuals are.

374
00:15:11,330 --> 00:15:13,330
So we've created something called the collective brain.

375
00:15:13,330 --> 00:15:15,330
We're just the nodes in the network.

376
00:15:15,330 --> 00:15:18,330
We're the neurons in this brain.

377
00:15:18,330 --> 00:15:20,330
It's the interchange of ideas,

378
00:15:20,330 --> 00:15:22,330
the meeting and mating of ideas between them,

379
00:15:22,330 --> 00:15:25,330
that is causing technological progress,

380
00:15:25,330 --> 00:15:27,330
incrementally, bit by bit.

381
00:15:27,330 --> 00:15:29,330
However, bad things happen.

382
00:15:29,330 --> 00:15:32,330
And in the future, as we go forward,

383
00:15:32,330 --> 00:15:35,330
we will, of course experience terrible things.

384
00:15:35,330 --> 00:15:37,330
There will be wars; there will be depressions;

385
00:15:37,330 --> 00:15:39,330
there will be natural disasters.

386
00:15:39,330 --> 00:15:42,330
Awful things will happen in this century, I'm absolutely sure.

387
00:15:42,330 --> 00:15:45,330
But I'm also that, because of the connections people are making,

388
00:15:45,330 --> 00:15:47,330
and the ability of ideas

389
00:15:47,330 --> 00:15:49,330
to meet and to mate

390
00:15:49,330 --> 00:15:51,330
as never before.

391
00:15:51,330 --> 00:15:53,330
I'm also sure

392
00:15:53,330 --> 00:15:55,330
that technology will advance,

393
00:15:55,330 --> 00:15:57,330
and therefore living standards will advance.

394
00:15:57,330 --> 00:15:59,330
Because through the cloud, 

395
00:15:59,330 --> 00:16:01,330
through crowd sourcing,

396
00:16:01,330 --> 00:16:03,330
through the bottom-up world that we've created,

397
00:16:03,330 --> 00:16:06,330
where not just the elites, but everybody

398
00:16:06,330 --> 00:16:08,330
is able to have their ideas

399
00:16:08,330 --> 00:16:10,330
and make them meet and mate,

400
00:16:10,330 --> 00:16:13,330
we are surely accelerating the rate of innovation.

401
00:16:13,330 --> 00:16:15,330
Thank you.

402
00:16:15,330 --> 00:16:19,330
(Applause)

1
00:00:16,330 --> 00:00:19,330
1970年代，当我在牛津大学上学时，

2
00:00:19,330 --> 00:00:22,330
全世界的未来是暗淡无光的。

3
00:00:22,330 --> 00:00:24,330
“人口爆炸”危机是无法阻止的。

4
00:00:24,330 --> 00:00:26,330
全球饥荒也无法避免。

5
00:00:26,330 --> 00:00:29,330
由化学物质引发的癌症蔓延下，

6
00:00:29,330 --> 00:00:32,330
我们的寿命缩短了。

7
00:00:32,330 --> 00:00:35,330
酸雨侵蚀森林。

8
00:00:35,330 --> 00:00:37,330
每年沙漠以1到2英里的速度扩张。

9
00:00:37,330 --> 00:00:39,330
我们也快用完了石油。

10
00:00:39,330 --> 00:00:42,330
核冬天将终结我们人类。

11
00:00:42,330 --> 00:00:44,330
不过上面所说的其实都没有发生。

12
00:00:44,330 --> 00:00:46,330
（笑声）

13
00:00:46,330 --> 00:00:49,330
令人惊奇的是，看看我有生之年到底发生了什么事，

14
00:00:49,330 --> 00:00:52,330
目前地球上，每个人的

15
00:00:52,330 --> 00:00:54,330
人均收入

16
00:00:54,330 --> 00:00:56,330
以实质计算，经过通货膨胀的调整，

17
00:00:56,330 --> 00:00:58,330
已经增加了3倍。

18
00:00:58,330 --> 00:01:01,330
我的寿命延长了30%。

19
00:01:01,330 --> 00:01:04,330
幼儿死亡率下降了三分之二。

20
00:01:04,330 --> 00:01:06,330
人均食物生产

21
00:01:06,330 --> 00:01:08,330
增加了三分之一。

22
00:01:08,330 --> 00:01:11,330
所有这一切都发生在人口增加到两倍的时候。

23
00:01:11,330 --> 00:01:13,330
我们是如何做到的呢？你可曾想过这是好事或者是坏事？

24
00:01:13,330 --> 00:01:15,330
我们到底怎样做到的呢？

25
00:01:15,330 --> 00:01:17,330
人类是如何变成

26
00:01:17,330 --> 00:01:19,330
仅有的一个物种因人口众多

27
00:01:19,330 --> 00:01:21,330
反而变得更加

28
00:01:21,330 --> 00:01:23,330
繁荣昌盛？

29
00:01:23,330 --> 00:01:26,330
这图表中有颜色线的粗细变化说明了人口的增长变化。

30
00:01:26,330 --> 00:01:28,330
图标水平坐标

31
00:01:28,330 --> 00:01:30,330
代表了人均国内生产总值。

32
00:01:30,330 --> 00:01:32,330
要回答上面的问题，

33
00:01:32,330 --> 00:01:34,330
各位得明白

34
00:01:34,330 --> 00:01:37,330
人类是如何集思广益，

35
00:01:37,330 --> 00:01:40,330
使他们的思想相融合，再融合，

36
00:01:40,330 --> 00:01:43,330
彼此碰撞，甚至是相交配。

37
00:01:43,330 --> 00:01:45,330
换句话说，各位必须明白

38
00:01:45,330 --> 00:01:47,330
思想是怎样交配的。

39
00:01:48,330 --> 00:01:50,330
大家来想象一下

40
00:01:50,330 --> 00:01:53,330
我们是怎样从制作这个物体手斧

41
00:01:53,330 --> 00:01:56,330
到制作了右边这个鼠标的东西。

42
00:01:56,330 --> 00:01:58,330
它们都是实物。

43
00:01:58,330 --> 00:02:00,330
一个是五十万年前直立人

44
00:02:00,330 --> 00:02:03,330
制作的阿舍利手斧。

45
00:02:03,330 --> 00:02:05,330
另一个明显是一个鼠标。

46
00:02:05,330 --> 00:02:08,330
两者完全一样的大小，真是不可思议的构造。

47
00:02:08,330 --> 00:02:11,330
我试着弄明白哪一个是比较大的，

48
00:02:11,330 --> 00:02:13,330
这基本上没什么区别。

49
00:02:13,330 --> 00:02:15,330
因为它们两者设计都是适用于人手。

50
00:02:15,330 --> 00:02:18,330
两者都体现了科技。最后，他们的相似性不是很有趣。

51
00:02:18,330 --> 00:02:20,330
这说明他们两者都适用于人手。

52
00:02:20,330 --> 00:02:22,330
让我感兴趣的是差异性。

53
00:02:22,330 --> 00:02:25,330
因为大约1百万年--

54
00:02:25,330 --> 00:02:27,330
从150万年前到

55
00:02:27,330 --> 00:02:30,330
50万年前，左边的手斧基本没有做任何改变的设计。

56
00:02:30,330 --> 00:02:33,330
直立人为3万后代

57
00:02:33,330 --> 00:02:35,330
制造了这样的工具。

58
00:02:35,330 --> 00:02:37,330
当然会稍有改变，

59
00:02:37,330 --> 00:02:40,330
但在那时工具变化速度比骨骼进化要慢。

60
00:02:40,330 --> 00:02:42,330
所谓没有进步，没有创新。

61
00:02:42,330 --> 00:02:44,330
这是个特别的现象，但这是事实。

62
00:02:44,330 --> 00:02:47,330
相反右边的鼠标五年后就会过时。

63
00:02:47,330 --> 00:02:49,330
还有另一个区别是，

64
00:02:49,330 --> 00:02:51,330
左边手斧是从一种物质制作出来的。

65
00:02:51,330 --> 00:02:53,330
右边的鼠标是从

66
00:02:53,330 --> 00:02:55,330
不同物质，

67
00:02:55,330 --> 00:02:58,330
从硅，金属到塑料等等制成的精美用品。

68
00:02:58,330 --> 00:03:01,330
更重要的是，它是不同思想，

69
00:03:01,330 --> 00:03:03,330
塑料的，激光的，

70
00:03:03,330 --> 00:03:05,330
电晶体的碰撞想法后的创新。

71
00:03:05,330 --> 00:03:08,330
所有思想相互结合的科技。

72
00:03:08,330 --> 00:03:10,330
这种结合

73
00:03:10,330 --> 00:03:13,330
和科技累积令我着迷。

74
00:03:13,330 --> 00:03:16,330
我认为这其中的奥妙

75
00:03:16,330 --> 00:03:18,330
可以了解这世界上要发生的事情。

76
00:03:18,330 --> 00:03:21,330
我身体也是不同思想的聚焦，

77
00:03:21,330 --> 00:03:24,330
皮肤细胞的，脑细胞的，肝细胞的想法聚焦。

78
00:03:24,330 --> 00:03:26,330
它们协同作用。

79
00:03:26,330 --> 00:03:29,330
进化是怎样累积和组合的呢？

80
00:03:29,330 --> 00:03:32,330
通过有性生殖来进化的。

81
00:03:32,330 --> 00:03:35,330
在无形物种，如果用不同物种的不同突变，

82
00:03:35,330 --> 00:03:37,330
一个绿的和一个红的，

83
00:03:37,330 --> 00:03:39,330
那么一个要比另一个更能适应。

84
00:03:39,330 --> 00:03:41,330
1个会灭绝，另一个则生存下来。

85
00:03:41,330 --> 00:03:43,330
但有性物种相交配，

86
00:03:43,330 --> 00:03:45,330
那么一个个体可以

87
00:03:45,330 --> 00:03:47,330
从不同干系物种

88
00:03:47,330 --> 00:03:49,330
两种突变。

89
00:03:49,330 --> 00:03:52,330
所以性交配使得个体

90
00:03:52,330 --> 00:03:54,330
拥有

91
00:03:54,330 --> 00:03:57,330
整个物种的遗传基因。

92
00:03:57,330 --> 00:03:59,330
不仅仅限于自己的支系。

93
00:03:59,330 --> 00:04:01,330
正如同性交配在生物进化上的作用一样，

94
00:04:01,330 --> 00:04:03,330
那么文化演变上起相同作用，

95
00:04:03,330 --> 00:04:06,330
这种作用的过程是什么？

96
00:04:06,330 --> 00:04:08,330
我想答案是交换，

97
00:04:08,330 --> 00:04:11,330
从一个物体交换另一个物体的习惯。

98
00:04:11,330 --> 00:04:13,330
这是人类独一无二的特点。

99
00:04:13,330 --> 00:04:15,330
其他的动物不这样。

100
00:04:15,330 --> 00:04:17,330
我们可以教实验室的动物做一点点交换实验。

101
00:04:17,330 --> 00:04:19,330
的确其他动物也有互惠关系。

102
00:04:19,330 --> 00:04:22,330
但从一个物体到另一个物体的交换从没有发生过。

103
00:04:22,330 --> 00:04:24,330
正如亚当-斯密说过：“从没见过一条狗

104
00:04:24,330 --> 00:04:27,330
与另一条狗公平交换骨头。”

105
00:04:27,330 --> 00:04:30,330
（笑声）

106
00:04:30,330 --> 00:04:32,330
没有交换的文化也存在。

107
00:04:32,330 --> 00:04:34,330
换言之，无性文化。

108
00:04:34,330 --> 00:04:37,330
黑猩猩，逆戟鲸，像这些生物，它们都有自己的文化。

109
00:04:37,330 --> 00:04:39,330
它们互相传授

110
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从父母到其子女幼儿流传下来的传统。

111
00:04:41,330 --> 00:04:43,330
在这种情况下，黑猩猩互相教

112
00:04:43,330 --> 00:04:45,330
怎样用岩石砸碎坚果。

113
00:04:45,330 --> 00:04:47,330
但有所区别的是

114
00:04:47,330 --> 00:04:49,330
这些文化从来没有扩张，没有增强，

115
00:04:49,330 --> 00:04:51,330
没有积累，也从来没有相结合过。

116
00:04:51,330 --> 00:04:53,330
原因是因为

117
00:04:53,330 --> 00:04:55,330
没有相交配文化，所谓，

118
00:04:55,330 --> 00:04:57,330
没有交换的思想文化。

119
00:04:57,330 --> 00:05:00,330
在不同的黑猩猩族群有不同的文化。

120
00:05:00,330 --> 00:05:03,330
在它们之间没有交换思想。

121
00:05:03,330 --> 00:05:05,330
那么为什么交换会提高生活水准？

122
00:05:05,330 --> 00:05:08,330
正如1817年戴维-里卡多的答案。

123
00:05:08,330 --> 00:05:10,330
尽管这是他的石器时代的版本故事，

124
00:05:10,330 --> 00:05:13,330
但他用它来说明国家之间的贸易。

125
00:05:13,330 --> 00:05:16,330
亚当做一只矛用四小时，一个斧头用三个小时。

126
00:05:16,330 --> 00:05:19,330
奥兹做一只矛用一小时，一个斧头用两个小时。

127
00:05:19,330 --> 00:05:22,330
所以奥兹比起亚当制造矛和斧头都要好。

128
00:05:22,330 --> 00:05:24,330
他不需要亚当的帮忙。

129
00:05:24,330 --> 00:05:26,330
奥兹可以自己制造更多的矛和斧头。

130
00:05:26,330 --> 00:05:28,330
但不应该这样，假如你想想看，

131
00:05:28,330 --> 00:05:30,330
如果奥兹制作2个矛，而亚当制作2个斧头，

132
00:05:30,330 --> 00:05:32,330
然后他们交换做贸易，

133
00:05:32,330 --> 00:05:35,330
他们每一个都节约了1小时工时。

134
00:05:35,330 --> 00:05:38,330
他们做得越熟练，这交换就越来越有意思。

135
00:05:38,330 --> 00:05:41,330
因为做得越熟练，熟练工亚当更擅长做斧头，

136
00:05:41,330 --> 00:05:43,330
熟练工奥兹更擅长做矛。

137
00:05:43,330 --> 00:05:45,330
这种贸易互惠变得更实质。

138
00:05:45,330 --> 00:05:47,330
这是交换益处之一，

139
00:05:47,330 --> 00:05:49,330
它实际上创造了

140
00:05:49,330 --> 00:05:51,330
更加专业的契机，

141
00:05:51,330 --> 00:05:54,330
也创造了更多交换等等类似的契机。

142
00:05:54,330 --> 00:05:56,330
亚当和奥兹两者都节约了1小时工时。

143
00:05:56,330 --> 00:05:58,330
节约时间

144
00:05:58,330 --> 00:06:01,330
来满足人们的需要，这就是成功。

145
00:06:01,330 --> 00:06:03,330
问问大家你们要工作多久，

146
00:06:03,330 --> 00:06:06,330
在晚上

147
00:06:06,330 --> 00:06:09,330
才能点亮阅读灯1小时来读书。

148
00:06:09,330 --> 00:06:12,330
如果你要从头开始，你到郊外去进行。

149
00:06:12,330 --> 00:06:14,330
你找到一只羊。你杀了它，得到羊脂肪。

150
00:06:14,330 --> 00:06:17,330
然后把羊脂肪熬成油，你制成了蜡烛，等等。

151
00:06:17,330 --> 00:06:19,330
你要花费多久才能制成光？相当长的时间。

152
00:06:19,330 --> 00:06:21,330
如果按时下英国的平均工资计算，能有1小时的阅读灯光，

153
00:06:21,330 --> 00:06:23,330
你到底要

154
00:06:23,330 --> 00:06:25,330
工作多久呢？

155
00:06:25,330 --> 00:06:28,330
答案是大约半秒钟。

156
00:06:28,330 --> 00:06:30,330
追溯到1950年，

157
00:06:30,330 --> 00:06:32,330
按平均工资算，你得工作8秒钟

158
00:06:32,330 --> 00:06:34,330
得到1小时的光。

159
00:06:34,330 --> 00:06:37,330
你得多付出7秒半的工作时间。

160
00:06:37,330 --> 00:06:39,330
换言之，1950年以来，

161
00:06:39,330 --> 00:06:42,330
7秒半钟的时间，你可以做别的一些事。

162
00:06:42,330 --> 00:06:44,330
或者你可以换取别的产品或服务。

163
00:06:44,330 --> 00:06:46,330
再追溯到1880年，

164
00:06:46,330 --> 00:06:48,330
平均工资算，人们要工作15分钟

165
00:06:48,330 --> 00:06:50,330
才能挣得1小时的光。

166
00:06:50,330 --> 00:06:52,330
追溯到1800年，

167
00:06:52,330 --> 00:06:54,330
你必须工作6小时，

168
00:06:54,330 --> 00:06:57,330
你才会有1个蜡烛，它能燃烧1小时。

169
00:06:57,330 --> 00:06:59,330
换言之，在1800年，人均平均工资

170
00:06:59,330 --> 00:07:02,330
负担不起1个蜡烛。

171
00:07:02,330 --> 00:07:05,330
回到这幅手斧和鼠标的图片，

172
00:07:05,330 --> 00:07:08,330
大家曾问过自己：“谁制作了他们，为了谁制作的？”

173
00:07:08,330 --> 00:07:10,330
某人为自己制作了石斧。

174
00:07:10,330 --> 00:07:12,330
这是自备用的。

175
00:07:12,330 --> 00:07:14,330
我们称那些日子还很贫穷。

176
00:07:14,330 --> 00:07:16,330
但是右边的鼠标

177
00:07:16,330 --> 00:07:19,330
是其他人为了我而生产的。

178
00:07:19,330 --> 00:07:21,330
有多少人呢？

179
00:07:21,330 --> 00:07:23,330
十个？一百个？一千个？

180
00:07:23,330 --> 00:07:25,330
我知道大概有数百万个。

181
00:07:25,330 --> 00:07:27,330
因为你得包括生产咖啡的人们，

182
00:07:27,330 --> 00:07:30,330
他们给那些在石油钻台工作的人们提供咖啡，

183
00:07:30,330 --> 00:07:33,330
石油钻台人们提取石油，使之生产出塑料等等。

184
00:07:33,330 --> 00:07:35,330
这些人都为我工作，

185
00:07:35,330 --> 00:07:37,330
才生产出这鼠标。

186
00:07:37,330 --> 00:07:40,330
这是社会运转的方式。

187
00:07:40,330 --> 00:07:43,330
也是我们人类进步的方式。

188
00:07:44,330 --> 00:07:46,330
在过去的日子，假如你是个富人，

189
00:07:46,330 --> 00:07:48,330
你的确拥有很多人来伺候你。

190
00:07:48,330 --> 00:07:50,330
你变得如何富有；你就能雇佣很多人。

191
00:07:50,330 --> 00:07:52,330
路易十四世拥有很多侍从。

192
00:07:52,330 --> 00:07:54,330
他们制作路易十四愚蠢的服饰，就如这个。

193
00:07:54,330 --> 00:07:56,330
（笑声）

194
00:07:56,330 --> 00:07:59,330
他们也做路易十四愚蠢的发型，或者类似的事。

195
00:07:59,330 --> 00:08:01,330
每晚，路易十四有498侍从

196
00:08:01,330 --> 00:08:03,330
为他做宫廷御膳。

197
00:08:03,330 --> 00:08:05,330
但现代旅客在凡尔赛宫参观，

198
00:08:05,330 --> 00:08:08,330
看着路易十四的画，

199
00:08:08,330 --> 00:08:10,330
他晚上也可以享受498人为他做的晚餐。

200
00:08:10,330 --> 00:08:12,330
这些人遍布巴黎的酒馆，咖啡馆，餐馆

201
00:08:12,330 --> 00:08:14,330
和商店。

202
00:08:14,330 --> 00:08:17,330
这些人随时服务于你，只要你提前1小时预约一顿丰盛的美餐，

203
00:08:17,330 --> 00:08:19,330
恐怕你享受的美餐要远远好于

204
00:08:19,330 --> 00:08:21,330
路易斯十四的御膳。

205
00:08:21,330 --> 00:08:24,330
因为我们相互协同工作，我们才能做好。

206
00:08:24,330 --> 00:08:27,330
我们能够变得专业，并交换技能，

207
00:08:27,330 --> 00:08:30,330
来提高每个人生活水准。

208
00:08:30,330 --> 00:08:33,330
现在，其他动物也彼此协同工作。

209
00:08:33,330 --> 00:08:36,330
蚂蚁就是个经典例子；工蚁为蚁后工作，反之亦然。

210
00:08:36,330 --> 00:08:38,330
但是一个大区别是，

211
00:08:38,330 --> 00:08:40,330
这种协同合作仅发生在一个蚁群里。

212
00:08:40,330 --> 00:08:42,330
在这蚁群之外就没有彼此的协同合作。

213
00:08:42,330 --> 00:08:45,330
缘由是生殖的劳动分工。

214
00:08:45,330 --> 00:08:48,330
也可以说，它们分工取决于繁殖力。

215
00:08:48,330 --> 00:08:50,330
蚁后全权负责繁殖。

216
00:08:50,330 --> 00:08:52,330
在我们人类物种，我们不可以像那样做。

217
00:08:52,330 --> 00:08:55,330
我们坚持一定要自己做的一件事就是繁殖。

218
00:08:55,330 --> 00:08:58,330
（笑声）

219
00:08:58,330 --> 00:09:01,330
甚至在英国，我们不会让女王带我们去生殖繁衍后代。

220
00:09:01,330 --> 00:09:05,330
（掌声）

221
00:09:05,330 --> 00:09:07,330
这个习惯何时形成的？

222
00:09:07,330 --> 00:09:09,330
要多久能形成？这有什么意义？

223
00:09:09,330 --> 00:09:12,330
我认为，这最古老的人类版本

224
00:09:12,330 --> 00:09:14,330
可能是性别分工。

225
00:09:14,330 --> 00:09:16,330
但我还没有例证加以说明。

226
00:09:16,330 --> 00:09:18,330
这就好比我们起初的那样，

227
00:09:18,330 --> 00:09:21,330
男人为女人而工作，女人为男人而劳作。

228
00:09:21,330 --> 00:09:23,330
在当代所有狩猎采集社会，

229
00:09:23,330 --> 00:09:25,330
整体上看，在狩猎男性和采集女性之间

230
00:09:25,330 --> 00:09:27,330
是以觅食分工。

231
00:09:27,330 --> 00:09:29,330
这种觅食分工也是很复杂的。

232
00:09:29,330 --> 00:09:31,330
在男女之间的专业分工角色

233
00:09:31,330 --> 00:09:33,330
是有区别的。

234
00:09:33,330 --> 00:09:35,330
这分工体系的妙处

235
00:09:35,330 --> 00:09:38,330
是它有利于男女两者。

236
00:09:38,330 --> 00:09:40,330
在哈扎人(Hadzas坦桑尼亚原住民)的这个案例，

237
00:09:40,330 --> 00:09:42,330
女人知道

238
00:09:42,330 --> 00:09:44,330
挖根茎，并与男人交换肉类，

239
00:09:44,330 --> 00:09:47,330
她知道要想得到脂肪

240
00:09:47,330 --> 00:09:50,330
就要去挖更多的根茎，并与男人交换后得到肉。

241
00:09:50,330 --> 00:09:52,330
女人不需要参与一次耗力的狩猎，

242
00:09:52,330 --> 00:09:54,330
去尝试猎杀一头疣猪。

243
00:09:54,330 --> 00:09:56,330
男人知道他用不着挖根茎

244
00:09:56,330 --> 00:09:58,330
来得到想要的。

245
00:09:58,330 --> 00:10:00,330
他要做的就是猎杀到一头

246
00:10:00,330 --> 00:10:02,330
足够大的疣猪，并用来分享。

247
00:10:02,330 --> 00:10:05,330
男女双方通过性别分工

248
00:10:05,330 --> 00:10:07,330
相互提高生活水准。

249
00:10:07,330 --> 00:10:10,330
这何时发生的呢？我们不得而知，但是

250
00:10:10,330 --> 00:10:12,330
尼安德特人可能没有这样做。

251
00:10:12,330 --> 00:10:14,330
他们是高度合作的物种。

252
00:10:14,330 --> 00:10:16,330
他们是高智商的物种。

253
00:10:16,330 --> 00:10:18,330
说到底，平均他们的大脑比今天

254
00:10:18,330 --> 00:10:20,330
在座各位的和我的大脑要大得多。

255
00:10:20,330 --> 00:10:22,330
他们富有想像力。他们掩埋他们中的死者。

256
00:10:22,330 --> 00:10:24,330
他们可能用语言交流，

257
00:10:24,330 --> 00:10:26,330
因为我们所知他们有和我们人类一样的FOXP2基因，

258
00:10:26,330 --> 00:10:28,330
这是在牛津大学研究发现的。

259
00:10:28,330 --> 00:10:31,330
尼安德特人可能有语言技能。

260
00:10:31,330 --> 00:10:34,330
他们是很聪明的人。我不是说尼安德特人的不好。

261
00:10:35,330 --> 00:10:37,330
但是没有证据显示

262
00:10:37,330 --> 00:10:39,330
他们有性别分工。

263
00:10:39,330 --> 00:10:42,330
没有女性的采集行为，

264
00:10:42,330 --> 00:10:45,330
这就好比女性和男性一起协同狩猎。

265
00:10:46,330 --> 00:10:48,330
另一件事是没有证据显示

266
00:10:48,330 --> 00:10:50,330
在不同族群之间的交换。

267
00:10:51,330 --> 00:10:54,330
因为你在尼安德特人遗址发现的那些物件，

268
00:10:54,330 --> 00:10:56,330
他们制造的工具，

269
00:10:56,330 --> 00:10:58,330
多数是当地材料制成的。

270
00:10:58,330 --> 00:11:00,330
例如，在高加索遗址，

271
00:11:00,330 --> 00:11:03,330
你可以发现当地尼安德特人制造的工具。

272
00:11:03,330 --> 00:11:05,330
它们都是当地黑燧石制成的。

273
00:11:05,330 --> 00:11:07,330
在这同样的山谷，大约在3万年前同一日期，

274
00:11:07,330 --> 00:11:09,330
那有现代人类遗址。

275
00:11:09,330 --> 00:11:11,330
现代人的一些燧石是当地制成的，

276
00:11:11,330 --> 00:11:13,330
但更多，多数是

277
00:11:13,330 --> 00:11:15,330
从很远的地方的黑曜石制成的。

278
00:11:15,330 --> 00:11:17,330
当人们开始

279
00:11:17,330 --> 00:11:19,330
移动像这个类似的东西时，

280
00:11:19,330 --> 00:11:22,330
这就证明他们开始在不同族群交换东西。

281
00:11:22,330 --> 00:11:25,330
交换贸易比农业有10倍多长远历史。

282
00:11:25,330 --> 00:11:28,330
人们忘了这个。人们认为贸易是现代产物。

283
00:11:28,330 --> 00:11:30,330
不同族群交换已经延伸

284
00:11:30,330 --> 00:11:33,330
了十万年之久。

285
00:11:33,330 --> 00:11:35,330
早期证明贸易开始于

286
00:11:35,330 --> 00:11:38,330
8万年到12万年以前的非洲某地，

287
00:11:38,330 --> 00:11:41,330
你看到黑曜石和碧玉和其他东西

288
00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:44,330
是通过埃塞俄比亚的长距离交换贸易而来的。

289
00:11:44,330 --> 00:11:46,330
你也看到海贝，

290
00:11:46,330 --> 00:11:48,330
经牛津大学的团队证明，

291
00:11:48,330 --> 00:11:50,330
这海贝沿地中海的阿尔及利亚

292
00:11:50,330 --> 00:11:53,330
向内陆移动125英里。

293
00:11:53,330 --> 00:11:55,330
这就是人们开始在

294
00:11:55,330 --> 00:11:57,330
不同族群交换的证明。

295
00:11:57,330 --> 00:11:59,330
这将导致专业分工。

296
00:11:59,330 --> 00:12:01,330
为什么认为长距离移动是指贸易

297
00:12:01,330 --> 00:12:04,330
而不是指移民？

298
00:12:04,330 --> 00:12:06,330
你观察现代狩猎采集者像澳洲土著人，

299
00:12:06,330 --> 00:12:09,330
他们在伊萨山区（位于澳洲东北）用石斧工作，

300
00:12:09,330 --> 00:12:12,330
那是Kalkadoon卡卡度部落拥有一个开采区。

301
00:12:12,330 --> 00:12:14,330
他们与他们的邻居

302
00:12:14,330 --> 00:12:16,330
交换类似魟刺的东西。

303
00:12:16,330 --> 00:12:18,330
结果是这配有魟刺的石斧在

304
00:12:18,330 --> 00:12:20,330
澳大利亚的大部分地区都能见到。

305
00:12:20,330 --> 00:12:22,330
所以长距离移动的工具

306
00:12:22,330 --> 00:12:25,330
是贸易的标志，而不是移民。

307
00:12:25,330 --> 00:12:28,330
当你切断人们之间交换，阻止人们交换和专业分工能力，

308
00:12:28,330 --> 00:12:31,330
会发生什么呢？

309
00:12:31,330 --> 00:12:33,330
结论是

310
00:12:33,330 --> 00:12:35,330
你不仅仅延缓科技进步，

311
00:12:35,330 --> 00:12:38,330
实际上使科技退步。

312
00:12:38,330 --> 00:12:40,330
塔斯马尼亚岛就是个例子。

313
00:12:40,330 --> 00:12:43,330
1万年前，当海平面上升，塔斯马尼亚岛变成个孤岛，

314
00:12:43,330 --> 00:12:45,330
在那的人们比起澳大利亚的人们经历了

315
00:12:45,330 --> 00:12:48,330
更慢的进步，

316
00:12:48,330 --> 00:12:50,330
他们实际上在倒退。

317
00:12:50,330 --> 00:12:52,330
他们放弃了生产骨制品，

318
00:12:52,330 --> 00:12:54,330
钓鱼工具和制衣技能，

319
00:12:54,330 --> 00:12:57,330
缘于四千人口

320
00:12:57,330 --> 00:12:59,330
不是足够庞大

321
00:12:59,330 --> 00:13:01,330
到需要专业分工技能，

322
00:13:01,330 --> 00:13:04,330
才能维护他们拥有的科技。

323
00:13:04,330 --> 00:13:06,330
这就好比今天在座的人们被空投到一个荒岛。

324
00:13:06,330 --> 00:13:08,330
在1万年后，我们口袋中有多少物品

325
00:13:08,330 --> 00:13:11,330
会继续使用生产？

326
00:13:12,330 --> 00:13:14,330
在火地岛（智力和阿根廷分而治之的岛屿），同样的岛屿，同样的人们

327
00:13:14,330 --> 00:13:16,330
身上却不会发生这种事。

328
00:13:16,330 --> 00:13:18,330
因为火地岛与

329
00:13:18,330 --> 00:13:21,330
南美洲大陆仅隔一个非常狭窄的海峡。（麦哲伦海峡）

330
00:13:21,330 --> 00:13:23,330
整个一万年来，贯穿海峡有往来

331
00:13:23,330 --> 00:13:25,330
贸易合同。

332
00:13:25,330 --> 00:13:28,330
而塔斯马尼亚岛却是隔绝的。

333
00:13:28,330 --> 00:13:30,330
再回到这幅图片

334
00:13:30,330 --> 00:13:33,330
不仅仅试问，谁制造了它，为谁造的，

335
00:13:33,330 --> 00:13:36,330
也要知道是谁怎样生产出来的。

336
00:13:36,330 --> 00:13:39,330
石斧的例子，人们生产它出来就知道怎样制作的。

337
00:13:39,330 --> 00:13:42,330
但是谁知道怎样生产出鼠标吗？

338
00:13:42,330 --> 00:13:45,330
没人，没人完全知道。

339
00:13:45,330 --> 00:13:48,330
地球上没人知道怎样生产出鼠标。

340
00:13:48,330 --> 00:13:50,330
我真的很严肃。

341
00:13:50,330 --> 00:13:52,330
鼠标公司的总裁不知道。

342
00:13:52,330 --> 00:13:55,330
他仅知道怎样运作一个公司。

343
00:13:55,330 --> 00:13:57,330
安装线上工人也不知道，

344
00:13:57,330 --> 00:13:59,330
缘于他不知道怎样钻探油井，

345
00:13:59,330 --> 00:14:02,330
通过提炼石油生产出塑料等等。

346
00:14:02,330 --> 00:14:05,330
我们所有人只知道一点点，没有谁能全部知晓。

347
00:14:05,330 --> 00:14:07,330
的确我要引用1950年代的经济学家，

348
00:14:07,330 --> 00:14:10,330
伦纳德·里德Leonard Read的著名作品里的话，

349
00:14:10,330 --> 00:14:12,330
“我，铅笔”（I, Pencil）。

350
00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:15,330
他写道铅笔是怎样被制做的，

351
00:14:15,330 --> 00:14:18,330
竟然没人知道铅笔怎样被制成的，

352
00:14:18,330 --> 00:14:21,330
缘于人们生产铅笔，却不知道怎样开采石墨。

353
00:14:21,330 --> 00:14:24,330
人们也不知道怎样砍伐树木等等类似的事情。

354
00:14:24,330 --> 00:14:26,330
人类社会通过交换和专业分工，我们

355
00:14:26,330 --> 00:14:28,330
做过的事

356
00:14:28,330 --> 00:14:30,330
使我们有创新

357
00:14:30,330 --> 00:14:33,330
能力去做我们完全不理解的事情。

358
00:14:33,330 --> 00:14:35,330
这不等同于语言。

359
00:14:35,330 --> 00:14:37,330
我们用语言来传达思想，

360
00:14:37,330 --> 00:14:40,330
然后我们彼此理解。

361
00:14:40,330 --> 00:14:42,330
但是用科技，

362
00:14:42,330 --> 00:14:44,330
我们的确可以用科技做超出我们能力的事情。

363
00:14:44,330 --> 00:14:47,330
我们已经超越了人类能力的范围到了

364
00:14:47,330 --> 00:14:49,330
一个非凡的程度。

365
00:14:49,330 --> 00:14:51,330
顺便说一下，

366
00:14:51,330 --> 00:14:54,330
我对其中一个原因关于智商的辩论

367
00:14:54,330 --> 00:14:56,330
不感兴趣，

368
00:14:56,330 --> 00:14:59,330
这辩论是关于一族群的智商高于另一族群的智商。

369
00:14:59,330 --> 00:15:01,330
它是完全不相干的。

370
00:15:01,330 --> 00:15:04,330
与此社会相关的

371
00:15:04,330 --> 00:15:07,330
是人们怎样交流他们彼此的思想，

372
00:15:07,330 --> 00:15:09,330
怎样互动合作得更好，

373
00:15:09,330 --> 00:15:11,330
而不是独立个体怎样聪明。

374
00:15:11,330 --> 00:15:13,330
所以我们创造了协同合作的大脑（collective brain）。

375
00:15:13,330 --> 00:15:15,330
我们只是这脑网络上的交点。

376
00:15:15,330 --> 00:15:18,330
我们就好比这个脑里的神经元。

377
00:15:18,330 --> 00:15:20,330
正是思想的交融，

378
00:15:20,330 --> 00:15:22,330
人们之间思想碰撞和交配，

379
00:15:22,330 --> 00:15:25,330
导致技术正逐步，一点一滴地

380
00:15:25,330 --> 00:15:27,330
进步。

381
00:15:27,330 --> 00:15:29,330
尽管如此，坏事情也会发生。

382
00:15:29,330 --> 00:15:32,330
在未来，随着我们社会进步，

383
00:15:32,330 --> 00:15:35,330
我们当然会遇到可怕的事情。

384
00:15:35,330 --> 00:15:37,330
例如战争， 经济萧条，

385
00:15:37,330 --> 00:15:39,330
自然灾难。

386
00:15:39,330 --> 00:15:42,330
我的确肯定本世纪会有糟糕的事情发生。

387
00:15:42,330 --> 00:15:45,330
但是我也确信由于人们彼此的联系结合，

388
00:15:45,330 --> 00:15:47,330
思想能力

389
00:15:47,330 --> 00:15:49,330
相碰撞和交配

390
00:15:49,330 --> 00:15:51,330
都是前所未有的。

391
00:15:51,330 --> 00:15:53,330
我也也确信

392
00:15:53,330 --> 00:15:55,330
科技会进步，

393
00:15:55,330 --> 00:15:57,330
从而改善人们生活水准。

394
00:15:57,330 --> 00:15:59,330
因为通过云计算，

395
00:15:59,330 --> 00:16:01,330
通过外包集成采购服务，

396
00:16:01,330 --> 00:16:03,330
通过我们已经创建的自下而上世界，

397
00:16:03,330 --> 00:16:06,330
在那里不仅仅是精英，而是每个人

398
00:16:06,330 --> 00:16:08,330
都能有自己的想法，

399
00:16:08,330 --> 00:16:10,330
让彼此想法碰撞和交配，

400
00:16:10,330 --> 00:16:13,330
我们一定会加快创新速度。

401
00:16:13,330 --> 00:16:15,330
谢谢大家。

402
00:16:15,330 --> 00:16:19,330
（掌声）