早上好 欢迎来到私人通道训练室 Okay, good morning, and welcome to the intervening private access training room.
如果你能举起鲍勃·怀斯曼的手让我知道你听到了我响亮而清晰的声音 If you can raise your hand on Bob Wiseman let me know that you hear me loud and clear.
希望大家周末愉快 Hope everybody had a good weekend.
每个人都在比赛 这很好 And everybody is racing a lot of hands, so that's great.
让我们也欢迎MarkRichie来到这个房间 And let's also welcome Mark Richie into the room.
早上好 马克 早 鲍勃早上 Good morning. Mark. Morning. Bob morning.
马克 然后 Mark. Then
请举手 让我们知道你的听力 if you could just raise your hand, letting us know your hearing.
也要标记清楚 我确实看到很多人举手了 Mark clearly as well. I do see a lot of hands there.
最后 让我们从交出任何一个射手开始早上好 And finally, let's get started by handing off the markmen of any Good morning.
马克 大家早上好 呃 Mark. Okay, good morning everyone. Uh?
看来我们今天吃了不少 It looks like we're having some baltily today.
这些反弹在纳斯达克市场被抛售 并创下新低 These rallies are being sold into and going to new lows here on the NASDAQ.
当然 我也没找到什么 And of course, I-I not finding much.
如你所见 简直就是紫罗兰 As you can see, no violet less to speak of.
把E-W-C-Z放在上面并指出在右边这个下降可能会显示出来 抱歉 Did put the E-W-C-Z on and pointed out that this decline right here on this right side that might show up, sorry about that.
我可能会出现在一些图表上 I might show up on some charts.
不完全是 没有人 等1秒 Is not exactly um. And no one, hold on 1 s.
抱歉 我有事要做 Sorry, I gotta do something here.
好了 开始了 嗯 如果你看市场史密斯 E-W-C-Z 当然 我已经展示过了 但它没有出现 你可以看到 这是正确的图表 Okay, there we go. Um. If you look at market Smith, E-W-C-Z, which I already showed, of course, but it's not coming up, you can see, that's the correct chart.
我们要把这里收紧 We're trying to tighten up here.
你被吓到了 You got a little shake out.
它形成了一个带把手的大杯子 It was, it was forming a pretty big cup with handle.
试图在这里收紧 Tried to tighten up right here.
你这里有点晃动 You got a little bit of a shake out right here.
但当它摆脱低点时 一个很好的反转正好在高点 But a nice reversal right up the highs as it shook off that low.
如果这里可以收紧 这将是一只股票 作为潜在的 IPO基础 就像你看到的 你看到这里的市场 看到这条实线 If this can tighten up right here, this would be a stock that I would be looking at, um as potential, as an IPO base, sort of like that that dicks where you see, again, you see the market here, see the the solid line.
它正在走向新的低点 It's moving to new lows now.
这支股票正在支撑 并形成一个把手 And this stock is holding up and building a handle.
如果这只股票能从低点突破 或者在犯规或一天的时候 你可能有一个从底部走出的领导者 或者甚至可能不是绝对的底部 If this stock can break out of here, coming off the lows, or around the time of a fouls or day, you may have A-A leader coming out of the of the of the bottom, or might not even be the the absolute bottom.
这可能只是从低点反弹的一次 It just might be one of the rallies off the lows.
这只股票爆发了 开始上涨 你在市场中创造了一个更低的低点 但这只股票只是拉回了你的止损点 And this stock breaks out, starts moving up, and you make a lower low with the market, but this stock just pulls back and holds your stop.
所以 这就是为什么我不迷恋那些指数 它们会让你清楚股票 或者你想要得到什么 或者你想要 你都清楚 你可以看到这里的相对强弱上升到这里 达到一个新的高点 So again, that's why I don't get infatuated with the indexes that they have to give you the all clear the stocks, or what you want to get, or do you want to get the um, you all clear from You can see the relative strength here is moving up here, getting a new high ground.
所以这绝对是我以后会考虑的一种类型的名字 So this is definitely a type of name that I would look at going forward here.
但同样 它仍有一些工作要做 But again, it still has some work to do.
让我看看还有没有其他问题在我们开始之前 我们开始回答问题 Um, let me just see if there's anything else before we just start, we start taking questions.
让我回到这个屏幕 Um, let me go back to this screen.
我知道有一个关于奥施康定的问题 嗯 快速回答这个问题 I know there was a question on oxy as far as, um, quick here, just address this.
我看这里 不要在六到八周内看到百分之百的增长 And me see here. Don't see the hundred percent increase in six to eight weeks.
然而 在9周内 似乎非常接近 However, does appear very close in nine weeks.
所以这取决于生病的时间 长达六周吗 So it's it's up to sick, up to six weeks?
或者实际上是3个月 Or is up actually, it's up to three months.
我不确定你在这里指的是什么 因为 很明显 在短短几个月的时间里 这个价格上涨了超过一倍 I'm so I'm not sure what you are referring to here, because it's, it's pretty clear that this is gone up over well over a hundred per cent um in just a couple months here.
所以这是你的权力游戏 但效果不太好 So and here's your power play right here, which is not working out too well.
但很明显 股价在那三到六周内上涨了一倍多 But clearly the stock had gone up more than a double within that, uh, that three to six, uh week period.
好了 让我们让我们来提问吧 All right, let's so let's get some questions.
我不知道 马克 就你的交易行情而言 你有什么要补充的吗 I don't know, mark, do you have anything to add as far as the general markets concerned your trading?
我相信你有很多现金 I'm sure you're heavily in cash.
是啊 只是留了很多干粉 Yeah, just keeping a lot of dry powder.
我的意思是 我想说的是 就像轶事一样 我听说了更多的故事 呃 你知道 人们爆炸了 有很多痛苦 这是一个相反的好信号 I mean, I will say, it does seem like, just anecdotally, I'm hearing more stories of, uh, you know, people blowing up and a lot of pain out there, which is a contrary and good signal.
但是 你知道 如果你没有得到 你知道 我们在这里得到的建议 你可能会有麻烦 But, you know, if you haven't heated the, you know, the advice we've been given here, you've probably got yourself in good trouble.
如果你坐过 你应该坐得很好 And if you have, you're you should be sitting in a really good position.
绝对的 应该是现金 Absolutely. It should be in cash.
我知道有些人评论说 呃 有一些人说我们有股票呃空缺职位 或者 你知道 通过警报等等 并突出粉刺 但是我们也一直在细胞信号和给予 嗯 非常明确的警告和建议不超过10-25%投资 只有上升到50 如果你做得很好 小 小飞行员的肯定 如果你遇到任何麻烦 那么你只是在和市场争论 还有我们的指导意见 And and I know some people have commented, uh, a few people have commented that we've had stocks on UH as far as open positions, or, you know, by alerts and so forth, and highlighting breakouts, but we also have been on cell signals and and giving, uh, very clear warnings and advice to not be more than ten to 25% invested, and only move up to maybe 50 if you're doing well with that smaller, with those smaller pilot by So you definitely, if you're getting into any trouble, then you're just arguing with the market, and also our our guidance here.
所以 但是 如果是这样的话 那么如果没有比今天更好的时间来转变并且开始做正确的事情 如果你让自己陷入了麻烦 那么最好的办法就是承认错误 继续前进 制定一个新规则 从现在开始 不要再犯 So, but, and if that's the case, well then if there's no better time to to switch and and to start doing the right thing than today, um, if you got yourself in trouble, then the best thing to do is to admit the mistake, move on, and make a new rule, and from this point forward, don't do it again.
好了 我们 我们来回答一些问题你开始 詹姆斯问你如何决定是用拉入法还是分手法 All right, let's, uh, let's get to some questions you get started, james is asking How you decide whether to use a pull back by entry or a breakup by entry technique?
我认为这是一个很好的问题 Okay, I think that's a great question.
我们就用这个图表吧 Um, let's just use this chart.
让我们以这张图表为例 Let's use this chart as an example.
选择奥施康定回去 Choose oxy going back
在这里 这里有一个很好的例子 here. So there's a perfect example with this low sheet right here.
所以问题是 现在它收回来了 So the question is, now it pulls back?
你在这里有一个小的拉回 You got a little pull back that sets up right here.
事实上 就在同一天 你在1月3日触发了回调 它也在这里的高位上方移动 As a matter of fact, on this same day, you got the pull back triggered on january 3, and it also moved above the high here.
这就给了你我们所说的转弯 That would have given you what we call making the turn um.
这就是低成本的完成 所以你就有了在枢轴上方的突破 And that's that completion of that low cheap So you have gotten the breakout above the pivot.
现在 这个也可以 你可以在这里用它 Now, this could have also, you could have used it over here.
在这个处理区域 你可以看到这里 你可以从1月10日开始 1月10日 在3332上方 So in this handle area you can see right here, you could have started above this high on one 10th, january 10, which would have been above the 3332.
然后在同一天 它也在旋转点后面起飞 是3382 And then on that same day, it also took off behind the pivot, which was at 3382.
嗯 问题是 你什么时候用 你什么时候用其中一种 Um. So question is, when do you use, uh, when do you use one or the other?
所以 马克 我想让你给出一个类似的答案 So, and Mark, I'm going to let you address this to probably a similar answer.
但我是说 我试着交易那些 那些低价位的被单 还有那些 回调买入 或者如果我现在能回调的话 其他的 But I mean, I-I try to trade those low, uh, those low sheets, and the, uh, pullback buys, or whatever sets up if I get the pull back by now.
记住 首先要记住的是 在作弊之前先要低仓 Just remember, keep in mind this 1st of all, a low sheet sets up before a cheat.
作弊是在句柄之前设置的 对吧 A cheat sets up before a handle, right?
你可能不会得到全部 或者你可能得到一个或另一个 或者你可能一个都没有 但通常你至少会得到一个右边的 You may not get them all, or you may get one or the other, or you may get none, but usually you're going to get at least one up the right side.
在支点前拉回 A pull back by sets up before the pivot.
所以你要选择第1位 So you're gonna have that choice to make 1st.
你会拉回来 如果它设置好了 它会先显示自己 You're gonna the pull back by, if it sets up, is going to present itself 1st.
然后你就有了下一个选择 那就是主轴心 And then you'll have that next choice, that will be the the pivot, um.
现在你会有一个低的 便宜的第一 在便宜之前 等等 Now that you'll have the low, cheap 1st before the cheap, and so forth.
所以我逐渐地进入这些 So I incrementally move into those.
所以基本上 我总是会试着 嗯 把杆子拿回来但它可能不是很大 如果事情进展顺利 或者如果我有现金 只是回到市场 那么我可能会在那里持有很小的仓位 然后当我的仓位超过支点 嗯 把我自己塑造成他 So basically, I'm always going to try to take the, uh, the pole back by but it may not be very big size if things are just, you know, uh, going okay, or if I'm in cash, just getting back into the market, then I might take a very small position there, and then add to my position when it gets above, uh, the pivot, and build myself into him.
然后 一旦事情开始起作用 如果 如果 我也将衡量回调买盘是否起作用 或者我是否需要等待突破 或者是否低的作弊起作用 Then, once things start working, if, if, and I'm going to also gauge to see if pull back buys are working, or if I need to wait for the breakout, or if ch low cheats are working.
如果我 也许他们工作得不太好 If I, maybe I they're not working at well.
这里有很多愚蠢的东西 但是底座中间三分之一的枢轴 效果更好经典的骗术 或者把手 There's a lot of all silly around there, but the the uh pivots in this middle 3rd of the base, are working better the classic cheats, or maybe the handles.
所以我得到了反馈 然后我要调整并在市场中寻找那个主题 一旦我找到了那个主题 我就开始多演奏一些 So I'm getting that feedback, and then I'm going to adjust and sort of look for that theme in the market, and once I find that theme, then I start playing it a little bit more.
马克要不你来做个选择 要么不等 要么不打 或者打进化者 Mark How about you to make that choice between don't wait and not play that pull back by or or play it versus the breakout?
是的 为什么 你刚才说什么 Yeah, why? What you just said?
我认为主题是关键 因为有时候你会在屏幕上浏览 没有太多主题 然后突然之间 你就会发现 哇 有很多低水平的作弊 The theme, I think, is sort of the key, because sometimes you'll be running through your screens and there isn't much of a theme, and then all of a sudden, you know, like, wow, there's just a lot of, of, lot of low cheats.
或者市场可能会拉低一两天 然后强势收市 Or maybe the market pulls in for a day or two, but then closes strong.
你会看到大量的拉回 你知道 或者那些类型的设置 And you'll see tons of pull back bys, you know, or those type of setups.
所以 我不会试图和一个女人结婚 So, um, I don't try and get married to one.
这就是你想要 That's where you just kind of wanna.
最棒的是 我觉得你有时会用这个比喻 马克 The nice thing is, you got, I think, use the analogy sometimes, mark.
这些都是工具箱里的工具 These are all tools in the toolbox.
你知道 如果你考虑不同的设置 就像一些不同的工具 有一些方法可以开始增加你的曝光率 当事情正常运行时 对吗 You know, if you think of the different setups, like a few different tools, there are just ways to to start increasing your exposure as things are working right, right?
再说一遍 你知道 不一定要孤注一掷 And again, you know, it doesn't have to be an all or nothing bet.
你不会做这些决定的 You're not going to make these decisions.
我只会做这个或者那个 And just, I'm only going to do this or only do that.
所以你应该知道你所知道的 So you should get what you know.
就多元化而言 今天早上在Twitter上 我的主题是多元化 For as far as diversification is concerned, on Twitter this morning, my sort of theme has been diversification.
我发了几条关于多元化的推文 I put a few tweets out about diversification.
我更喜欢通过持有大量股票来增加我的分散化投资 但通过我使用的入门技巧 I prefer to get my diversification up by having lots of stocks, but by my entry points in my techniques that I'm using.
在那之前 当我得到一些反馈 告诉我什么是有效的 然后我就会非常专注于那个领域 专注于那个领域 Until then, when I get some feedback that tells me what's working, then I get very concentrate in that, concentrated in that area.
所以我可能会在回调的时候试着做一些小的仓位 然后在突破的时候再做一些 如果你愿意的话 在技术上做一些分散投资 So I might try maybe a few small positions on the pullback bys, and then some as they're breaking out, and get some diversification technically, if if you will.
但同样 我们在寻找扩散 But again, we're looking for a proliferation.
现在市场上什么正在激增 What is proliferating in the market, like right now?
市场上正在激增的是什么 石油股票 What's proliferating in the market? Oil stocks.
你知道 你看到能源石油股票 大宗商品股票 You know, you're seeing that energy oil stocks, the commodity based stocks.
你知道 我以前说过 我和马克都告诉过你 你知道 我们历史上在一些基于商品的领域做得不是很好 我们有点惩罚他们 你知道 如果你愿意 给他们一个记过 因为他们不符合这些研究的标准 那些最大的 成功的研究 行动最快的研究 And you know, I've said this before, and Mark and I both tell you that, you know, we haven't historically done really well in some of these commodity based areas, and we sort of penalize them, you know, give them a demerit, if you will, because they don't meet the criteria of these studies, the biggest, winning studies, fastest movers.
然而 我们也很开放地认为这可能是一个时代 就像70年代 我们不会坐视不管 只是看着它 However, we're also very open minded that this could be A-A period, like the seventies, and we're not going to just sit back and just watch it and not and not
认输吧 交换一下装备 throw in the towel and trade the setups.
我们要交易设置 如果设置和拉回设置是一样的 We're going to trade the setups, and if the setups come same thing with the pull back by is to set up.
所以 So
我们要 我们要训练他们 there we're gonna, we're gonna train them.
好吧 吉姆的问题是 在1995年的超级表现中 你大量使用了保证金吗 All right. Question on Jim is asking to use margin heavily during Did you use margin heavily during your super performance of 1995?
我在努力回忆95年 嗯 好吧 I'm trying to remember 95. Um, well, heavily.
我从两方面来看待这个问题 要么经常使用大量的页边距 要么在某些时候使用大量的页边距 There's two ways I look at that, either like, using a lot margin often, or using a lot of margin at certain times.
几乎在我的整个职业生涯中 我从未经常使用差额 Almost through my entire career, I have never used margin often.
我想 我用保证金和杠杆交易最多的一次是去年 为了2021年的美国投资锦标赛 I think, I think the most time that I've used margin and and traded with leverage was this last year for the, uh, U-S Investing championship for 2021.
这可能是我使用过的最常用的解析 That's probably the most parsing I've ever used.
在那之前 你知道 我不怎么用保证金 Um, prior to that, um, you know, I-I haven't used margin very much.
不 95年的时候 我用过 但很少 你知道 在非常合适的时候 只有在事情运转得非常非常好的时候 No, in 95, I used it, yes, but sparingly, you know, at very opportune moments, and only when things are working really, really well.
马克 我也很好奇 嗯 你知道 你度过了非常重要的几年 Um, I'm curious too, mark. Um, you know, you had some very big years.
几年前 你涨了300% A couple of years ago, you were up over 300 %.
我在2021年也会回来 Similar return of mine in 2021.
那一年你用了很多火星探测器吗 Um, did you use a lot of Mars in that year?
你说的是2020年 Uh, you were talking about 2020?
2020年 我也用过类似的词 2020? I-I used very similar though.
我的意思是 他们的时期 很明显是在2020年 I mean, they were periods were, obviously in 2020.
当然 我们在年初的时候是现金充裕的 Of course, we were in cash for a good chunk at the start of the year.
是的 确实有一些 And then yes, some there were.
这可能是我自去年1月以来使用的最激进的几次我没有使用任何边际 That was probably the most aggressive margin of using the last several I haven't used any margin, probably since January of last year.
从那以后我就开始玩小球了 I've been playing small ball ever since.
我度过了一个非常愉快的一月 I had a really nice January.
然后 随着市场在2月份达到顶峰 保证金减少 我在一段时间内投入了全部资金 可能是去年 可能是去年 有一两次 但我很快就退下来了 从那以后我就一直在努力减少投资 And then, as the market sort of peaked in February, came off margin, I was fully invested for a hot minute, maybe maybe last year, a time or two, only to jockey right back down and just been trying to to chip away ever since.
是啊 马克 说到T-H Yeah, yeah, mark, speaking about T-H have up there.
我们在19号就把它加到贝勒特身上了 We had it added to Bylert on the 19th.
最基本的问题是 你为什么不愿意在20号那天接受 Basic question is, uh, what was it about it that you didn't like to take it on the 20th?
呃 我不记得了 我记得那天早上我一直在自责 Uh, I can't remember. I remember I was kicking myself that morning.
我不介意 我想马克和我可能没有讨论过这件事 I didn't mind. I think Mark and I might didn't have had a conversation about this.
我来了 要么是你和我 鲍勃 要么是马克 我不记得了 I came. It was either you and I, bob, or Mark and I can't remember.
但它的寿命很短 But it was very short lived.
很明显 它跑起来了 但是牛跑得很快 Obviously, it ran up, but holy the cow ran up real fast.
上涨了近20% 就那一天 Was up almost 20 %. Just that one day.
我们是在前一天戴的 对吧 We put it on, I guess the day before, right?
是前一天的事 我不记得有没有计入收益 It was a day before, yeah, um, I can't remember if it went to earnings.
我记不清楚了 但问题是 我玩过吗 I don't remember exactly. But again, the question is, did I play it?
我没有 如果没有 你会如何处理这笔交易 I did not. And if not, how would you have handled the trade?
好吧 我的意思是 如果我在里面 我肯定在这个特殊的环境中 会卖出一些百分比 缓冲自己 Well, I mean, if I had been in it, I'm most certainly in this particular environment, would have sold some up percent and cushioned myself.
当然可以 所以那应该是很基本的 你知道的 卖一部分 给我的员工提供资金 然后可能通过撑杆子回来 你知道 为了更大的变动 Sure, um, so that would have been very basic, just, you know, sell a portion of it, finance my staff, and then maybe hold through the pole back, you know, for a bigger move.
因为这是一个强大的游戏问类型名称 Because it was a power play ask type name.
不过 它不稳定 这是一个非常低的价格 在左边波动 这是可以的 但是有点大 It volatile, though. So it was, you know, a very low price, volatile left side here, which is okay, but a bit on the Let me see wide side.
下面是什么 实际上还不错 6美元的股票价格是25206% What was it down? Well, actually not too bad, about 2520 6% for a $6 stock.
这很好 所以 是的 只是标准的 标准的操作程序 That's fine. So, again, yeah, just standard, standard operating procedure.
你知道 如果我参与其中一个问题 就像Gary所说的那样 问很多领导在周期性和大宗商品名称中 你知道 如果他们成为新的领导 我知道你倾向于远离那个类别或那个群体 但你会更积极地扮演他们吗 You know, if I had been in it a question, just the the paraphrase from Gary, asking with much of the leadership being in the cyclicals and commodity names, uh, you know, if they turn out to be the new leaders, I know you tend to stay away from that category or that group, but would you be playing them more actively?
是的 如果他们真的成为了新的领导者 我们可能只能在事后才知道 但你知道 你会看到后续的设置 Yeah, well, the thing if they, if they do turn out to be the new leaders, we're going to probably only know on hindsight, but you know, you're going to see subsequent setups.
你不会只看到这些 第一波的股票 然后它们就崩溃了 然后它们达到顶峰 或者经历正确的 大的调整 然后表现不佳 而可能增长 你知道 股票会回来 就像你通常在一个短的 周期性的股票周期中看到的那样 You're not going to get just those, the 1st wave of setups, and then they fall apart, and they top and or go through correct, big corrections and underperform, while maybe the growth, you know, stocks come back, as you would see normally in a short, cyclical, uh, stock cycle.
如果是长期的变动 或者更长期的变动 你会得到额外的设置 So if they are, if it is a secular move, or a more secular type move, you're going to get additional setups.
所以如果他们继续持有 而且我看到这些名字有好的组合 我就会 我就会交易它们 So if they're continuing to hold, and I see good setups in those names, I'm gonna, I'm gonna trade them.
我可能会交易它们 你知道 一次交易一些 你知道 你知道 你知道 你知道 在1号有非常小的飞行员仓位 I'll probably trade them, you know, a few at a time, you know, being very, uh uh, you know, having very small pilot positions at 1st.
但如果情况好转的话 我是用现金支付的 But I'm coming from cash if things are correcting.
但是 如果他们在工作 我会变得非常积极 But again, I'll get very aggressive if they're working.
所以但是现在 我们还没有看到任何设置 So But right now, we're just not seeing any setups.
即使在这些股票中 你已经经历了一些波动嗯 你已经经历了一些上涨和扩张 Even in those names you've had, you've had some volatility um, you've had some of em run up and get extended.
没有任何股票和基地 你知道 我发现几乎没有建立股票 And there just aren't any stocks and bases, you know, I'm just finding almost no stocks set up.
所以市场在这里触底无关紧要 市场会上涨 很多股票会上涨 So it doesn't matter if the market bottoms here, the market goes up, a bunch of stocks go up.
如果它们不是来自这些基地 不是来自低风险的入口点 那么我们就没有必要去打扰它们 If they're not coming from those bases, from that low risk entry point, then there's no sense in bothering.
你稍等 You just wait,
因为那是我们的那是我们的驾驶室 那是最低的驾驶室 because that's our that's our wheel house, and that's the lowest wheel wheel house.
和 And
只是转述一下 他现在在做他的工作 他说他的交易是基于学习的一切 is asking just a paraphrase. He does his post right now, says on his trading based on everything is learned from
去年参加了MTP 但他想弄清楚 他们的方法是给他的还是你的渐进曝光申请打分 coming to MTP last year. But he is trying to figure out, is their way to grade his or your progressive exposure application?
我能看出来 我是说 我相信你可以回去 然后 I can see, I mean, I'm sure you can just go back and take a
看看 你的发展速度有多快 你是否 你可能会追上他们 也许 你知道 有点晚了就能完全投入 look and see, you know, how you're how quickly you're ramping up, and whether you're, you might be chasing them up and maybe getting A-A, you know, fully invested a little bit late.
你可能太咄咄逼人了 You might maybe are too aggressive.
我觉得 你懂的 回顾过去看看你在做什么看看你的计划执行得有多好 I-I think, um, you know, just looking back and just seeing what you're doing and how well you're executing your plan.
我更感兴趣的是我如何执行我的计划 进入一个计划 然后分析这个计划 看看它是否 你知道 首先 如果我确实执行了它 如果它是一个可靠的计划 那么我就用结果来证明方法 I'm more interested in how well I'm executing my plan, going into a plan and then analyzing the plan to see if it, you know, if, 1st of all, if I did indeed execute it, and if it was a solid plan, then I am from using the result to justify the means.
这支股票涨了 我应该买下来的 Oh, this stock went up, so I should have bought it.
这只股票涨了 这两只股票也涨了 所以我本应该大举投资 This stock went up, these stocks went up, so I should have been heavily invested.
这并不一定是真的 我的意思是 股票每天都在上涨 Well, that's not necessarily true. I mean, every day, stocks go up.
每天都有这样的事情发生 你可以说 我本应该买入 我本可以这样做 本可以这样做 但是 你知道 当然 有更多的股票将与你一起上涨 而不是在它们里面 比你从一个基地出来的股票多得多 Every day things happen that you could say, I should have been in, I could have done this, could have should a would have But, you know, there's of course, way more stocks that are going to go up with you, not in them, than ones that you're in coming out of a base.
这是一个非常有限的 我们 你知道 我们把它控制在一个非常有限的一组 呃 环境和和标准 This is a very finite, we're, you know, we're holding this down to a very finite a set of, uh, circumstances and and criteria.
嗯 所以 我只是觉得你应该看看你是否 你知道 正确地执行了你的计划 Um. So, you know, I-I just think you should just see if you're, you know, executing your plan properly there.
听着 在马克那里会有一些时间我相信你可以 Look, there's gonna be times in Mark I'm sure you could.
你知道 我们都可以联系到这也许你有一些评论 You know, we all can relate to this the maybe you have some comments on it.
有时你会逐渐完全暴露 There's gonna be times where you progressively exposed perfectly.
我的意思是 你只是繁荣 你增加它 你在正确的时间变得积极 事情开始发展 你有大的头寸 一切都很好 I mean, you just boom, you ramp it up, and you get aggressive right at the right time, and things take off, and you got big positions on everything's working great.
还有一些时候 不管什么原因 你会很慢 你会很小心 There's other times where you're gonna be, for whatever reason, you're gonna be slow, and you're gonna be careful.
也许你遭遇了巨大的损失 或者你对市场不确定 你被抛在了曲线后面 然后事情开始好转 你会想 我希望我 你知道 我希望我在这个时候更积极一些 Maybe you're had shringle losses, or you're not sure of the market, and you get left behind the curve a bit, and things take off, and you're going, shit, I wish I, you know, I wish I was more aggressive at this time.
但这与完美无关 But it's not about being perfect.
关键是不要真的错了 It's about not being really wrong.
这就是交易的意义所在 That's what this trading is all about.
你不必完美 You don't have to be perfect.
你只需要不让它像高尔夫一样 你知道 这就是老虎·伍兹和我的区别 你知道 我会犯巨大的错误 你知道 即使我在一场高尔夫比赛中跑得很好 我甚至不再打高尔夫了 You just have to not make it's like golf, you know, that's the difference between A-A Tiger Woods and and me, you know, I'm going to make giant errors, you know, even if I'm running great through a round of golf, which I don't even play golf any more.
但是当我这样做的时候 当我 当我 你知道 当我打高尔夫球的时候 我可以在16洞打得很好 在17洞和18洞打得很好 But when I did, but when I, when I, you know, was going around a golf, I could be doing great for 16 holes and blow the hole round on the 17th and 18th hole.
你知道 泰格·伍兹只做到过几次 Tiger Woods has only done that, you know, a handful of times.
我见过他们 你知道的 8个但这很罕见 I've seen them take, you know, eights and and But it's very rare.
这是非常罕见的 所以这种一致性 你知道 是最重要的 It's very rare. So that consistency, you know, is what's important.
它不是完美的 而是要避免真正的大错误 你知道 你逐渐暴露 你知道 5个月后 在一切进展到延长谈判之后 It's not to be perfect, it's to avoid the really big errors, you know, where you're getting progressively exposed, you know, five months later, after everything's run up into extend its talks.
所以 我不知道 你呢 马克 就你所知 评价你的逐步曝光 是的 我没有打分 但我认为你的观点很好 尽管 你的策略可能永远不会完美 但它们是合适的吗 So, I don't know, how about you Mark, as far as you know, judging your progressive exposure, yeah, I don't grade it, but I think your point is really good point, though, on the idea that your tactics are probably never going to be perfect, but are they proper?
你知道 如果你在做正确的事 你知道不 You know, if you're doing the right things, you know not.
这就是为什么你永远不会听到标记说 好吧 你下来了 你应该加倍 This is why you're never going to hear marks say, well, you're down, you should double up.
你知道 那只是你可能 因为十有八九你可能不会爆炸 但最终你会的 You know, that's just a you might, because nine times out of ten you might not blow up, but eventually you will.
如果你给自己打分 当我看到更多的组合时 我是否变得更有攻击性 或者当事情进展顺利时 我不 我实际上不打分 你知道我多快就进入或退出了 And and the inverses is true with progressive exposure, if you're So if you're going to grade yourself to say, well, as I saw more setups, was I getting more aggressive, or as things were working, that's I-I don't, I don't actually grade, you know how how quickly I got, you know, in or out.
大多数时候我觉得我是在争取职位 I most of the times I feel like I'm jocking for position.
然后通常在一个好的时期 你你你你你自己金字塔 你知道 合理地 不完美 但偶尔你做得很完美 And then usually in a good period, you you pyramid yourself up, you know, reasonably well, not perfectly, but every now and again you do kind of do it perfectly.
这就是 你知道的 你可以把它当作是向前迈出的一大步 And that's, you know, where you can just take it almost feels like it just a giant step forward.
但这是实践 你知道吗 这需要不断练习 But it practice, you know? That's really just keep practicing.
你练习正确的事情 好事情发生 You practice the right things. Good things happen.
是的 你不可能总是完美交易 你也很少能完美交易 但你能做到完美的事情就是你能完美地执行一个计划 Yeah, you can't always trade perfectly, and you can rarely trade perfectly, um, but the things that you can do perfectly is you can perfectly execute a plan.
你可以想出一个计划并完美地执行 You can come up with a plan and perfectly executed.
这可能是个糟糕的计划 但没关系 It may be a crappy plan, but that's okay.
一个糟糕的计划总比没有计划好 因为现在你有了一个参照点 你得到了反馈 你调整了 你制定了一个新计划 A crappy plan better than no plan, because now you've got a reference point, you get feedback, and you adjust, you make a new plan.
所以 你想要做到完美 有两件事 So the thing you want to be, try to be perfect about, is two things.
第一 执行你的计划以及执行计划中的风险管理部分 因为这是一个你提前提出的绝对水平 你完全量化了 可以完美地完成 除了缺口 One, executing your plan and executing the risk management portion of the plan, because that is an absolute level that you come up with ahead of time, you fully quantify, and can be done perfectly with with the exception of gaps.
然后完美意味着接受下一个价格 And and then perfectly would mean taking the next price.
所以停下脚步 执行你的计划 这些都是你要确保完美完成的事情 So stopping out and executing your plan, those are the things you want to make sure that you do perfectly.
方 Parties
我想问的是 你的工艺标记上的一个技术性问题 你会通过马库斯·史密斯来筛选吗 Asking if, uh, I guess a technical question on your process mark, do you screen through Marcus Smith?
或者你 Or do you
从你的名单中筛选名字输出到你的E信号 然后在EC上筛选 screen the names from your list exported into your E signal and then screen on the EC?
我没有把它们输出到A信号中 I don't export them into the A signal.
冰淇淋和市场的神话 我把我感兴趣的人列了一个名单 Ice Cream and markets myth. I make a list of the names that I'm interested in.
我使用 I use
确切地说 我在我的第一本书中说了什么 以及我是如何在其中使用缩略词的 我想我甚至在第一本书中 我展示了从我的笔记本上剪下来的一小段 exactly what I what I um, what I say in my 1st book, and how I have the little acronyms in it, I think I even in the 1st book, I show a little cut out of my notebook.
直到今天我还在做同样的事情 I do the same thing to this day.
我只是 我把我感兴趣的符号写下来 然后我把它们放在手上 放进E信号里 I just, I write, I write the symbols down that are that I'm interested in, and then I put on my hand and put them into, um into E signal.
在三个三栏下 我有我的 我的无表 我的高水平 我的受提醒 然后从那里开始 我当天决定买的任何东西都将进入我的受止损列表 Under three three columns, I have my, uh, my watchless, my high on deck, my by alerts, and then from there, whatever I decide on that day that's gonna be a on deck for buying, goes into my by stop list.
所以基本上没有四个 但我的观察名单上有三个 So it's basically fourless, but three lists are on my watch list.
这是一个等级制度 And there it's a hierarchy system.
当我整个星期都在看它们的时候 我只是上下移动它们 As I watch em throughout the week, I just move em up and down.
可能会上升到警戒级别 也可能会下降到我的监视列表中如果他们崩溃了可能会从我的监视列表中消失 May either move up and improve to by alert, or they move down, and they go down to my watch list and maybe off my watch list if they fall apart.
所以这是非常直接和简单的 基本上就是卷起你的袖子 做我的手 So that that's it's pretty straightforward and simple a lot, just basically rolling up your sleeves and doing the work my hand.
按照商业惯例 我们交易 我们交易的大多数袜子都是rs收音机90或更高的 And as follow business, we trade, most socks that we trade are with an rs radio 90 or higher.
只筛选高于90卢比的股票是有意义的 还是建议我们也筛选低于90卢比的股票 Would it just make sense to screen just the stocks that are at an rs 90 higher, or do you recommend that we also screen below a 90?
RS你可以 我的意思是 我会 我交易的大多数股票是89或更好 RS You could, I mean, I would, I the majority of the stocks that I trade are 89 or better.
这就是我想要达到的目标 Um, that's sort of my cut off of where I want to be.
坦白地说 如果一切都是平等的 我想要89个或更高的相对力量 Openly, I would, optimally, if I had everything being equal, I want 89 relative strength or higher.
这背后的原因是有40年的经验 这恰好是我发现的最适合动量股的相对压力 The reason behind that is there are 40 years of experience that that happens to be the relative strain cut off that I have found that works the best for momentum stocks.
在这下面 我要做的就是使用相对优先排序 Now below that, then what I do is I want this where I use what's called relative prioritizing.
我希望基本面 我希望其他方面更加强劲 I want the fundamentals, I want other things to be even stronger.
所以当我开始讲80和80个相对特征 甚至更低的特征时 我有三颗眼泪 So when I start getting into the 80 and 80 relative traits, or even lower than that, well, I sort of have three tears.
我有80到88 我有89到99 I have the 80 to 88, I have the 89 to 99.
然后当他达到80到88 低于我的最佳值时 我希望当我低于80时基本面更强 Then when he gets to the 80 to the 88, below my optimal, I want the fundamentals to be stronger when I get down below 80.
我确实买了一些名字 There are some names I do buy.
我一般用大市值公司 非常大的市值公司 有很多机构支持 更多的是 你知道 S-P类型的公司 I'm generally going in big cap names, very large cap names, that have lots of institutional support, and are the more, you know, S-P type names.
我可能会往下走 你知道的 在亚马逊河之类的地方 走到相对强度的地方然后从那里 你知道 然后我然后我就在那下面了 And I may go down, you know, on an Amazon or something, go down into that relative strength and and from there, you know, then I then I'm below that.
这完全是一堆垃圾 你知道 我尝试 我想避免 你应该加一个ipo标记 It's a complete junk pile. You know, I try, I want to avoid, you should add to an IPOS mark.
这也是一个例外 嗯 是的 怎么了 That's an exception as well. Well, yeah, what?
但即使是ipo 我也喜欢 But even with IPOS, I'd like it.
我更希望是89岁或更好 I'd prefer to be 89 or better.
但是 你知道 我们可以 你知道 我们可以有一个I-P-O甚至是70如果它没有交易很长时间 But, you know, we could, you know, we could have an I-P-O that's even a 70 if it hasn't traded very long.
你知道的 你不会知道这些信息 所以我们会在股票图表之外进行交易 Um, you know, you're not gonna have the information, so we'll be trading it just basically off the stock chart.
这是真的 一个新手会问 在修正时减少最大止损有意义吗 That that's true. A ne hats asking Does it make sense to reduce the maximum stop loss in times of correction?
所以 不要使用日常的8%的建议 而是发行6%或者减少 嗯 绝对的 So instead of using day usual recommendation of 8 %, to instead issue 6% or to reduce, um, absolutely.
这正是你应该做的 That's exactly what you should be doing.
当事情遇到困难的时候 你应该采取小的势利态度 而不是大的停顿 When things when the environment is difficult, you should be taking smaller snobs, not larger stops.
我在我的两本书中都有解释 当环境困难时 会发生的是你的正确击球率会更低 And again, I explain this in both my books, where when when the environment is difficult, what's gonna happen is you're gonna be right less often lower batting average.
这是最主要的事情 That's the main thing that's gonna happen.
我相信几乎你们每一个人 如果你们看看你们的成功率 可能是在20岁或30岁 你知道 百分之百的明智 可能可能是30岁 I'm sure almost every one of you, if you're going to look at your batting average, it's probably in the twenties or thirties, you know, percent wise, probably probably in the thirties.
这可能就是你现在可能在的数字 That would probably be the the the number that you'd probably be in at this point.
UM 但是会比正常水平低 UM But it will be lower, it will be lower than normal.
它将比好的时候更低 It will be lower than the the good times.
现在 即使你可能有相同的抢救病房比例 你的平均收益可能会被压缩 UM Now, even though you might have the same rescue ward ratio, your average gain is probably going to be compressed.
它们可能会比好时期或你的平均水平要少 They'll probably be less than in the better times, or your average.
所以你必须 你必须弥补 So you have to, you have to make up for that.
你必须调整你现在的平均增益较低的事实 你有一个较低的击球率 所以这降低了你的期望 所以现在你的止损必须变得更紧 You have to adjust for the fact that you now have a lower average gain, and you have a lower batting average, so that's bringing your expectancy way down, so now your stop has to get tighter.
乔说他说的 他在美国 我第一次看到 Joe says his saying, he's in the US, I see for the 1st time.
他涨了几个百分点 然而 作为一个竞争对手 他很难坐视别人在今年迄今为止获得可观的回报 He's up a couple percent. However, as a competor, he's having a hard time sitting on his hands watching others put up decent return so far for the year.
你对他有什么建议吗 Do you have any advice for him?
他想避免 所谓的 让事情发生 He wants to avoid trying to, quote unquote, make something happen?
是的 嗯 没有武力交易 Yeah, um. Well, no force trades.
我是说 除了自律还有什么别的选择 I mean, there's, what's the alternative to doing discipline and
按照既定的方式执行你的策略 doing your strategy the way it's laid out?
没有战略 所以 我的意思是 如果你只是想碰碰运气 赌一把 我不明白这背后的逻辑 No strategy. So, I mean, if you want to just take a shot at getting lucky and roll the dice on something, I don't understand the logic behind that.
所以 我的意思是 这是一整年的比赛 有很多很多的时间 So, I mean, it's a, it's the whole entire year of a contest to have lots and lots of time.
让我 让我这么说吧 Let me just, let me just say this.
嗯 就目前而言 我不知道 我猜 我猜我在第一年就领先了 Um, as far as well, I don't know, I guess was, I-I guess I was in the lead the very 1st year.
我的意思是 I mean,
去年的第一个月 对吧 the very 1st month of the year last year, right?
2号 1号代表将军 Well, 2nd, the 1st for general.
但据我所知 我没有 我没有 我没有科学证据 但我自己看了这么多年的美国投资锦标赛 我想我从来没有见过 除了 我自己 这一年 But as far as I know not, and I haven't, I don't have scientific evidence on this, but myself watching the U-S investing championship contest over the years, I don't think I've ever seen, except, I guess myself, this one year.
即使我在97岁的时候赢了 一开始我也远远没有领先 And even when I won at 97, I was far from the lead in the beginning.
我想我从来没有见过领先 领导者在一开始就真的赢了 I don't think I've ever seen the leading, the leaders in the beginning actually win.
他们几乎从来没有赢过 赛车也是如此 They almost never win. It's the same thing in racing.
我可以用赛车 你看 你知道 他们一直到最后一圈 直到最后一圈 I can with race cars, you see, you know, they right up to the last, up to the last lap.
很多时候 你知道 你会有一辆车在最后一分钟开过来 A lot of times, you know, you'll have a car that just comes in and went right the last minute.
甚至 就像赛马一样 你知道 跑出来的马通常不会互相接应 Or even, like in horse racing, you know, the horse that comes out and leads doesn't usually go wire to wire.
一匹马很少会走钢丝 Very seldom is a horse go wire to wire.
通常是一匹马 It's usually a horse that's it.
它在后场 然后在后面移动 It's in the backfield a bit, and then makes that move later on.
嗯 这是这是专业知识的普遍原则控制和调整自己 Um. And that's that's the that's the sort of universal principle of expertise and having control and pacing yourself.
当 当 你知道 业余爱好者只是在那里拍摄 总是会有 And while, while, you know, amateurs are just out there taken shots, and there's always gonna be.
如果你在一个有一群马的地方 你在一群赛车的地方 你在一群股票交易员的地方 If you're in a field, you're in a field of a bunch of horses, you're in a field of a bunch of race carts, you're in a field of a bunch of stock traders.
如果你有300个交易员 可能每个月都有人走运 或者碰巧在正确的时间出现在正确的地点 Well, if you got 300 traders, there's probably gonna be every month to be somebody that gets lucky, or happens to be in the right place at the right time.
但就像我经常说的 每年 都会有人在市场的某个领域获得巨大回报 But just like I always say, every year, there's, you know, there's someone who makes a big return in some area of the market.
但是呢 你会在明年和后年看到这个名字吗 But is that? Do you see that name the next year and the year after?
年复一年吗 名字总是不一样 就像乐透一样 The year after? The names are always different, just like lotto.
每周都有人中彩票 但每个星期的名字都不一样 Every week somebody wins lotto, but every week the name is different.
想想比赛吧 So think about that with the contest.
每个月都会有一个人干得不错 但通常每个月都是不同的名字 而获胜的人几乎总是干得不错或不错 Every month you'll have somebody that's doing well, but usually every month it's a different name, and the guy who wins it is almost consistently doing decent or good.
我可以把这个应用到很多事情上 Um, I can apply this to so many things.
我的射击运动也是如此 It's the same thing with my shooting sport.
你知道 当你参加一项射击比赛时 你所有阶段的总时间和你所有回合的总时间 You know, when you go and and you do a shooting competition, it's the total time of all your your stages and all your, uh, your rounds that you go through.
所以最好保持一致 And so it's better to be consistent.
就像 我知道 如果我能在每个阶段平均拍摄3 2秒 我想做得更好 Like, I know, if I can go and shoot maybe an average of 3.2 s per stage, I want to do better.
然后那家伙过来 你知道 2个第2阶段 5个第2阶段 6个第1阶段 Then the guy comes and shoots, you know, two 2nd stage, and he shoots a five 2nd stage, and he blows up on one with 6 s.
我要做的就是让它们保持一致 All I have to do is just get those consistent.
事实上 当我第一次参加射击比赛时 我被震撼了 因为我喜欢数学 As a matter of fact, that when I 1st started in the shooting competition, I was blown away, because I love math.
你知道我有多喜欢用数学来量化事物 You know how much I love to quantify things with math.
我去看了看这些比赛的冠军 我发现有时候冠军从来没有赢得过个人阶段的比赛 I went and looked at the winners that won these competitions, and I found that sometimes the winner never won an individual stage.
举个例子 如果有10个阶段 对吧 So, for instance, if there was, if there was ten stages to run through, right?
你要完成十组目标 每一组都有赢家 Ten sets of targets that you have to run through, um, each each one of those, there's a winner.
所以第一个 你知道 也许有人用了10 2秒 而你用了9 5秒 So this 1st one, you know, maybe someone does it in 10.2 s and you do it in 9.5 s.
它们有这些单独的阶段 最后 它是所有阶段的总和 So they have these individual stages, and at the end, it's the total of all the stages.
我看到有人赢了 他们会赢 他们只赢了两个阶段 I saw people winning, and they'd win, they only won two out of ten stages.
我当时想 等一下 And I was like, wait a minute.
这真是让人大开眼界 This is very, very eye opening here.
稳定比担心在这些阶段快速冲刺和获得绝对最快的时间更重要 Consistency is more important than worrying about blazing these stages and getting the absolute fastest time.
这是一贯的 时间的优势 It's the consistent, uh, time that that wins.
因此 在此基础上 我真的改变了我在射击比赛中的方式 So I really changed the way that I competed in shooting based on that.
我只是尽我所能做到绝对的快 I was going for the just absolute fast as I could.
但后来我意识到 如果能有一段很好的 持续的时间 我就赢了 But then I realized it to get a really, just a decent, consistent, uh, time would make me win.
我试着回顾去年一月份的情况 那时的市场还不错 有点像市场 I-I tried just to look back at January of last year, where the markets were good, sort of like markets.
他说 那是他最后一次做保证金 He said, that's last time he was a margin.
二月份 有一些人在一两个月的时间里上涨了百分之百 February, there were guys up hundreds of percent in just one or two months.
去年 原始分数在1月份开始上升20 然后在2月份上升到57 Last year, raw marks started out being up 20 in January, then got it to 57 in February.
但是你知道 这些年来的稳定 马克最后和335人在一起 那些人远远没有接近100%的年度伙伴 But you know, the consistency through the end of the years, where Mark ended up with the 335, and those guys were nowhere close to hundred percent buddy of the year.
相反 在97年 当我赢得美国和维西格冠军时 我在第一节增长了8% And conversely, in 97, when I won the US and Vesig championship, I was up 8% in the 1st quarter.
头三个月 我在第一名的涨幅仅为8% The 1st three months I was only up 8% in 1st place.
我记得上涨了48% 我就像 啊哈 I remember was up 48 %. And I was like, uhoh.
我可能有麻烦了 I might be in trouble here.
我已经在考虑了 但我说 我坚持我的计划 I was already thinking, but I said, I'm sticking with my plan.
我要保持一致 I'm just going to be consistent.
然后我抽离了 在过去 And then I pulled away. In the last
第三节 还有第四节 我真的拉开了比分 整个比赛都在下滑 而我在这一节处于领先 the 3rd quarter, and in the 4th quarters, where I really pulled away, the whole field went down and I was up for the quarter.
因此 这种一致性和避免不利因素再次为我带来了回报 And so again, that consistency and avoiding the downside paid off for me.
我在我的第一本书里讲过这个故事 I-I tell that story in my 1st book.
当然 哈里在问 当我的仓位很小时 我在交易管理中选择股票时往往很草率 因为风险和回报对账户净值的影响都小得多 Of course, harry's asking. When I have small positions, I tend to be sloppy my stock picking in trade management, because the risk and award both have much less effect on the net account value.
你能分享一些吗 Can you share some
如何减少改善这种情绪或心理问题的技巧 tips as you reduce to improve this emotional or psychological issue?
我的心态书是 如果你还没读过 你应该读什么 Well, my mindset book is What is what you should be reading if you haven't already?
在这本书的第二部分 第一部分 当然 掌握你的心态对于理解我们的运作方式以及从心理上解决这个问题非常重要 And really in the 2nd part of the book, the 1st part, of course, mastering your mindset is very important for understanding the way we operate and being able to address that psychologically.
然后在这本书的第二部分 掌握完美实践 的第二部分 涉及了一大堆练习 你练习的方式 And then at the the 2nd uh portion of the book, the 2nd uh section Mastering Perfect Practices, goes through a whole bunch of uh exercises, the way you approach, uh, practicing.
所以 你说你倾向于草率 当我有小的位置时 是的 这是我所说的一个完美的例子 And and so again, um, you're saying that you tend to be sloppy and, uh, when I have small positions, yeah, so this is a perfect example of what I talked about.
如果你听过我讲过 当我玩扑克的时候 我在等待一个大的游戏 有一个等待名单 我去玩一个小的游戏 我去玩一个巡回赛 2比5的游戏 我最后输的钱比2比5的要多 而1025的游戏更大 风险也更大 If you've probably heard me talk about how, when I played poker, I go, when I was waiting for the big game, and there was a waiting list, I go play out a small game, and I go play the one tour, two five game, and I end up losing more money than two five than I did in the 1025, which is a much bigger game and has much more risk.
但我会开始拿着薯片 想着 这一切都很有趣 But I would just start heaving chips around thinking, in all this is just fun.
在你意识到之前 你知道 变得粗心大意 And before you know it, you know, getting careless.
我损失惨重 这是一样的 I racked up a loss. So it's the same thing.
所以你要对待你要这样想 So I you gotta treat you gotta think of it this way.
当你持有较小的头寸时 或者你在玩扑克 你的本地扑克游戏 你的1-2游戏 You're when you're having the smaller positions, or you're playing the poker game, your local poker game, your one two game.
这是重要比赛的练习时间 This is practice time for the big game.
这是重要时刻的练习时间 This is practice time for the big time.
所以你想要一切一切都是为了完美的练习 对吧 So you wanna be all it's all about perfect practice, right?
就像我说过很多次 练习不能创造完美 只有完美的练习才能创造完美 Like I said many times, practice doesn't make perfect, only perfect practice makes perfect.
所以你要自己想想 你会怎么想突然之间你要在小游戏中练习 然后你要在大游戏中正确地练习 So you gotta think to yourself, what do you think you're going to just all of a sudden you're going to practice it on the smaller game, and then you're going to shift and do it right on the big game?
不 不 它 当你拥有更大的仓位时 你需要同样多的纪律和更多的风险 No, no, it. It takes just as much discipline and as much more risk when you're got the bigger positions.
所以在脑海中使用较小的位置 So use the smaller positions in your mind.
把它想象成 这是练习 Think of it as this is, this is practice.
这是一种练习 因为我必须完善这些技巧 This is practice for I have to refine these techniques.
想象一下 在后面加几个0 你知道的 在trait上加几个0 And just imagine it. Put some zeroes after it, you know, add some zeroes to the trait.
如果是一千股 加个零 就是一万股 If it's a thousand shares, add a zero, make a 10000 shares.
我该怎么办 如果这是10000股 我会怎么做 What would I do? What would I do if this was 10000 shares?
你知道 同样的事情 同样的问好问题 You know, the same thing, the same asking good questions too.
比如 如果你想知道如何处理某件事的答案 问问你自己 别人会怎么说 Like, for instance, you know, if if you want an answer on how to approach something, um, ask yourself, what would some people say?
你知道 我的一些学生会说 马克会怎么做 You know, what would, you know, some of my students would say, well, what would Mark do here?
我说 一个冠军会在这里做什么 You know, I-I say, what would a champion do here?
我最尊敬的 最伟大的商人会做什么 What would the trader that I most uh, a respect and that, you know, the greatest do here?
他们会怎么处理这件事 You know, how would they handle this?
这就是你的答案 但是要加上一些0 And that's your answer. But add some zeros to it.
把它想象成一个更大的位置 把它当做 你知道 作为一个重要时刻的练习环节 Imagine it as a much bigger position and use it as a, you know, as a practice session for the big time.
我要加到马克身上 我认为小额账户正是如此 I'll just add to mark. I think small accounts are exactly that.
很多人的账户都比较小 他们不这么看 A lot of guys have smaller accounts, and they don't see it that way.
他们会想 我得格外冒险 格外进取才能拿到更大的客户 They think, well, I got to be extra risky or extra aggressive to get it to a bigger account.
但你想看到的是相同的游戏 But you want to see that it's the same game.
你在玩同样的游戏 You're playing the exact same game.
如果你不这样想 小客户就不会成为大客户 Small account won't become a big account if you don't think that way.
其次 不然等它来了你就把它炸了 And 2nd of all, or it'll you'll blow it up when it does.
对吧 完全正确 但还有一件事 Right? Exactly. But here's another thing too.
如果你要挑衅 我喜欢挑衅 If you're gonna be aggressive, I love being aggressive.
我完全赞成 但它必须在正确的时间 必须在交易的正确一方 I'm all for it, but it has to be at the right time and has to be on the right side of the trade.
所以要积极向上 积极调整仓位规模 但在风险方面要更加积极 保持非常非常紧的风险 So get aggressive with the upside, get aggressive with the position sizing, but get even more aggressive in the on the risk side, and keep the risk super, super tight.
所以现在 就像我说的 调整一下 调整一下攻击性 就为了风险 So now, like I said, adjust for that, adjust for that aggression, just for the risk.
总是在你能控制的范围内调整 Always be adjusting in the areas that you have control over.
你可以控制风险 You have control over the risk.
好吧 你想要 你想要更草率 So all right, you want to be able, you want to be more sloppy.
那么你就得问 我的结果是什么 Well, then you have to say, well, what's my outcome?
在这里吗 我的结果会更少 Here? My outcome's gonna be less.
你已经知道 是你自己说的 所以 你需要适应一下 You already know that you're, you're the one saying that, so, um, you're gonna need to adjust for that.
杰瑞问的是你的参考 或者是你如何使用50天移动平均线来实现更大的移动 Jerry is asking your reference, or your use of the 50 day moving average rule for achieving bigger moves.
他问你是否有其他类似的技术可以用于加入或下一个完整的市场 Um, he's asking if you have other techniques like that to be able to use join or in the next full market.
嗯 你知道的 支援 你知道 没有很多你需要理解这是一种权衡 Um, you know, backstopping. You know, there's not a lot of you have to understand it's a trade off.
你知道 如果你不卖成实力 你就等着 You know, if you don't sell into strength, and you wait
对于软弱 那你就得有所回报 for weakness, well, then you've got to give back.
我的经验是这样的 如果你交易的是一个较小的变动 举个例子 我们看一下T-H So my general of thumb is simply this If you're trading for a smaller move, for instance, right here, let's look at this T-H.
它爆发了 它上升了 It breaks out, it runs up.
如果我要做一个酒窖 我要把它卖得很好 I'm if I'm going to be a cellar, I'm selling right into strength.
这里 为什么 Here. Why
我等待着第二天 I wait for the next day.
好吧 看看我付出了多少 Okay, look how much I gave back.
意义是什么 好吧 我把这些都还给你了 就等着那 What's the sense? All right, I gave, I've given all this back, just waiting for that that
第二天 如果我放了几天 我就会回到这里 三天后 我就会把它全部还给你 next day. If I gave it a couple days, I'm all the way back here, three days later, I've given it all back.
所以你玩的游戏越小 你就必须以这种优势卖得越多 So the smaller the game that you're playing for, the more you have to sell in this strength.
如果你打算采取更大的行动 并且你已经获得了利润 你现在可以得到一些回报 If you're playing for the bigger move, and you've got a profit to work with, you can now have some giveback.
所以你必须首先在脑海中框定你的目标是什么 你想要实现什么 So you have to 1st in your mind frame what exactly is your goal and what you're trying to achieve.
你必须意识到你不需要为了另一个而牺牲其中一个 And you have to realize that you're not going to have to sacrifice one for the other.
现在 如果你刚从一个啤酒市场出来 你不 让我们说 你知道 我们买这个 E-W-C-Z 它就像我一直在看的那样 Now, if, if you're just coming off of a beer market, you don't, let just say, you know, we buy this, E-W-C-Z, it sets up like I've been watching here.
这不是最好的图表 因为这是破碎的图表 Well, this is not the best chart, because that's the broken chart comes out of here.
你知道的 也许从低点开始 在一天内浏览一份文件 You know, maybe off the lows, run a file through a day.
好吧 我们有一个独立自主的基础 有很大的盈利和销售利润率 从市场的低点走出来 Well, we've got an I-P-O base with big earnings sales margins coming out right off the lows of the market.
这可能是一个大问题 This may be a big one.
这可能是其中之一 This may be one that that takes up.
所以现在 你可以切换到50天一旦你的50天赶上了你的止损点 或者你可以把它的一半卖给实力和金融 用50天来止损 或者更好的 或者金融止损点 用50天来代替它的一部分 So now, uh, you can switch over to that 50 day once your 50 day catches up to your stop, or you can sell half of it into strength and finance that stop and use the 50 day, or better, or financial stop and use the 50 day, uh uh, instead on a portion of it.
然而 你知道 有无数种方法可以做到这一点 However, you you know, there's a million ways you can do it.
但底线是 在正确的条件下 你知道 从一个空旷的市场中可能有巨大潜力的东西 这就是我现在会使用它的地方 But the bottom line is is that under the right conditions, you know, something that maybe has big potential coming off of a bare market, that's where I would, I would use that now.
你可以支持 你知道 股票上涨20% 你可以支持你想要的 You can backstop, you know, stock runs up 20 %, you can backstop you want.
但是现在 你你知道 你会得到回报的 But now, again, you you know, you're gonna have a giveback.
你必须做出某种武断的决定 You've got to make sort of an arbitrary decision.
没有什么神奇的数字 我不能告诉你 There is no, like, magic number, I can't tell you.
你知道的 有10%的后援 Well, you know, backstop at a 10 %.
这将是 这将使你在一些市场上持有股票 这将非常有效 And that's gonna be, that's gonna keep you in the stock in some, uh markets, that'll work great.
在其他市场 情况会更不稳定 In other markets, it's gonna be more volatile.
你需要一个更宽的后腰 而且你会收回大部分的后腰 You'll need a wider backstop, and you're gonna get give most of it back.
所以你必须和市场一起潮起潮落 看看什么是有效的 And so it really you have to sort of ebb and flow with the market, see what's working.
嗯 但是 50天规则 在牛市开始的时候是一个很好的规则对于表现出领导特征的股票来说 Um. But again, the 50 day rule, it's a good rule in the beginning of a bull market in stocks that are showing leadership characteristics.
原因是 从历史上看 领先的股票可以在超过50天的情况下保持惊人的涨幅而不需要一件衣服或每周一件衣服 The reason why is because, historically, uh, leading stocks can go an amazing distance above that 50 day without having a clothes or a weekly clothes below it.
但同样 这是一个 你知道 我会谨慎使用的东西 But again, that would be a, you know, something I would use sparingly.
好吧 好吧 已经明白了 All right, um, okay. Got that already.
回答迈克尔的问题 在我的交易中打破规则或犯了错误后 什么是反弹的最好方法 Answered michael's asking What is the best way to rebound after breaking a rule or make a mistake in my trading?
例如 把我的资金投入到一种情况下 事后看来 并不像我之前看到的那样理想 E.g. put my capital to work in a situation that, in hindsight, wasn't as optimal as I saw it beforehand.
不好意思 你要怎么弥补掉卷的错误呢 I'm sorry, um, how do you fix a mistake of breaking a roll?
走了一把椅子 还在什么情况下 Went one chair, still in the in the situation?
问题在哪里 因为我要读 Where is the question? Because I'm gonna read it.
呃 在我的交易中打破规则或犯了错误后 什么是反弹的最好方法 Uh? What is the best way to rebound after breaking a rule or making a mistake in my trading?
我把我的资本投入到一个后见之明的情况下 并不是所有 是的 好吧 所以你从中吸取教训 重新制定你的计划 重新开始 E.g. I put my capital to work in a situation in hindsight, was not all and yeah, okay, so you learn from it, reformulate your plan and start over.
我是说 我不 我不知道 I mean, I don't, I don't know.
我不知道还能说什么 I don't know what more to say.
我是说 你可以 只有你可以 I mean, you can, only you can.
你必须从你做过的事情中学习 制定一个新的计划 You have to learn from from what you did, formulate a new plan.
而最好的时机就是当你意识到自己的错误时 And the best time to to do that is is as soon as you recognize your mistake.
当我写作的时候 当我发现自己犯了一个错误 我就会马上改正 Look, when I write, when I see that I made a mistake, I correct it immediately.
我不等待 我不会坐等股票反弹 I don't wait. I don't sit there and wait wait for the stock to come back.
哦 我没有以8%的价格卖出 And, oh, I didn't sell it down 8 %.
现在下降了12点 所以当它回到8的时候 我就会卖掉它 And now it's down twelve. So when it comes back eight, I'll, I'll sell it.
没有 你看 那是失败者的想法 那只会惹上麻烦 No. See, that's, that's loser thinking, that that will just get into trouble.
这是一个自由滑动斜率 只有失败的交易者才会这么想 That's a slip free slope. And only losing traders think that way.
好吧 如果你要打破你的规则 你要这样想 那么你就得准备好面对平庸的回报 大量的波动 大量的愤怒 而且你不是专业人士 All right, so if that, if you're gonna break your rules, and you're gonna think that way, well then you just be prepared for mediocre returns, lots of volatility, lots of aggravation, and and you're not a pro.
专业人士是有规矩的 他们会坚持 You know, pros have rules, they stick to em.
他们有规定 即使这些规定不起作用 他们也有备用的规定 And they have rules for even when the rules don't work, they have, they have backup rules for that too.
我有个规矩 人们会说 如果股票暴涨 下跌50%会发生什么 I have a rule. People say, well, what happens if the stock blows up and go and gaps down 50 %?
我出售 我卖掉它 没有 I sell. I sell it. No.
我为什么要呢 我为什么要猜更多呢 Why would I? Why would I guess even more?
不 这说不通 No, it doesn't make any sense.
所以它通过了我的站 So it went through my stop.
我到站了 我出售 It hit my stop. I sell.
嗯 所以 重新开始的最佳时机就是今天 Um. So again, the best time to, uh, to start doing it right is today.
我不知道还能说什么 You know, I don't know what more to say.
你 你犯了错误 它向他们学习 制定一个新计划 You you've made mistakes. Um, it learned from them, and formulate a new plan.
然后你会犯更多的错误 你会从错误中吸取教训 然后你会正式制定一个新的计划 And then you're going to make more mistakes, and you learn from them, and you'll formally a new plan.
但最好的反弹方法是 如果你在水下 慢慢地做 然后标记 也许你已经 But the best way to rebound is is, if you're under water, is to do it slowly and and mark, maybe you have
这是一些建议 你知道 就你所知 我们当然不想报复交易 开始更大规模的交易 some advice for this. You know, as far as you know, we, we certainly don't want to revenge trade and start trading larger.
这是渐进式曝光的地方 与缩减规模相反 不要试图太快恢复 This is where progressive exposure, on the opposite side of of scaling back and not trying to get it back too fast
是最重要的 因为这样你就会陷入一个大问题 is paramount, because then you get yourself into a really big problem.
现在你跌了 你跌了10% Now you're down, you're down 10 %.
现在你开始积极进取 你走得更快 现在你已经到了2025年 Now you start treading aggressively, and you go out even faster, and now you're down 2025.
现在你有一个巨大的洞 Now you've got a huge hole.
现在你看到的是一座要攀登的山 Now you're looking at a mountain to climb.
结果是这样的 这是不可避免的 And and here's what happens. This is what inevitably happens.
这太有趣了 这太神奇了 It's so funny how, it's just amazing how this happens.
一次又一次 人们在第一回合就陷入困境 你知道 可能是一个空市场 然后他们会陷入更多的麻烦 Time and time again. People get themselves into trouble on the 1st leg down, and, you know, maybe of a bare market, and then they get themselves into more trouble.
把另一条腿放下来 哦 我没想到 Takes another leg down. Oh, I didn't expect that.
我以为我们会恢复的 Thought we were going to rebound.
繁荣 现在下降了2020年 5% Boom. Now they're down 2020, 5% now.
现在所有的波动都在低位附近 Now there's all volatility around the low.
所以他们现在试图成为一门学科 但他们被鞭策着 So they try to be, they try to be a discipline now, and they get whipped around.
他们承受了一些小的损失 They take a bunch of little, small losses.
现在下跌了3035% Now they're down 3035 per cent.
猜猜接下来会发生什么 市场触底反弹 一个巨大的机会出现了 Guess what happens next? The market bottoms and blast off, and a great opportunity emerges.
还有你 你在干什么 And you and what are you doing?
除了从坑里挖出来什么都没有 Nothing but digging out of the hole.
整个大的 漂亮的腿和轻松的美元环境 The whole big, nice up leg and easy dollar environment.
你所做的一切 是的 交易对你很有用 但你什么都得不到 你所做的一切 最多 可能会回到收支平衡 All you do, yeah, the trades work great for you, but you get nowhere, all you do is, at at best, maybe get back to break even.
或者如果你全部收回 你会得到一点收益 Or if you recoup it all, you've got a small gain.
这一切都发生在最糟糕的时候 都是因为你让自己从沉沦中走出来 And and it happens at the worst possible time, all because you let yourself get out of sink.
所以当你从水槽里出来的时候 回到水槽里 So when you're out of sink, get back in sink.
要想东山再起 就得卖出 套现 The way to get back and sink is to sell, get into cash.
重置 重置 就像在运动中一样 重置 重置你的姿势 Reset, reset, just like in sports, you reset, you reset your stance.
你重置了 你重置了剧本 You reset, you reset the play.
你知道当一支篮球队一次又一次被闪电击中会发生什么吗 You know what happens when a basketball team starts getting blitzed and over and over and over?
他们只是在鄙视暂停 暂停 They're just scorn against time out, time out.
所有人都进来 重置 我们得把这玩意当成是对我们的追杀 Everybody get in here, reset. We got to reset this thing as a running on us.
这是普遍的 普遍的 我不知道 马克 你呢 你有什么建议吗 It's, it's universal. Universal. I don't know, mark, how about you, you got any advice for that?
我是说 今天早上 有一些非常非常好的金色切线 I mean, there's been some really, really good golden tangents, uh, this morning.
但是 是的 洞的第一规则 对吧 But, yeah, 1st rule of a hole, right?
它停止了挖掘 嗯 是的 当然 It stopped digging? Uh, yes, absolutely.
相反 人们做什么他们就挖掘什么 And instead, what people do they they dig.
他们用胡子挖更大的坑 他们有MR 对吧 They dig bigger ashter with a beard, they got MR right?
把你手里的铲子拿开然后叫暂停 Take the shovel out of your hand and and call a time out.
我 我 我不能编造这些 And I-I-I can't make this stuff up.
我刚和一个人通了电话有人联系我 你知道 下降了90% I just had a call with a guy last Somebody reached out to me, you know, down 90 %.
第一个问题是 哇 快 And the 1st question was, wow, fast.
你觉得我能回来吗 Do you think I can make it back?
我说 你问了一个错误的问题 因为你做了所有错误的事情 And I said, you're asking the wrong question, because you're doing all the wrong things.
你应该问 我能多快从这些错误中吸取教训并在交易中变得更好 You should be asking, how fast can I learn from these mistakes and get better at trading?
你只需要增加900% You only have to go up 900 %.
花九百美元你应该很快就能回来 很快 For 900 you should be able to make it back pretty soon, pretty quick.
我想说的是 没有负责任的快捷方式能赚到那么多钱 Well, there's no responsible, quick way to make that kind of money, was what I was trying to say.
但你问这个问题的事实 有点 你知道 这表明了这个问题的重点 我认为 尽管 你打破规则后 你会做什么 But the fact that you're asking that question, which is kind of, you know, showing the point to the question, I think, though, is, what do you do after you break a rule?
这是一个很好的机会 我不会再这样做了 Well, that's a great opportunity to say, I'm not going to do that again.
你从错误中吸取教训 你只是变得更好了 You learn from your mistake. You just got better.
如果这是你的态度 你的态度是 我做一些同样愚蠢的事情能多快把我失去的钱赚回来 If that's your attitude, your attitude is, how quickly can I make the money I lost back by doing something else just as stupid or foolish?
那你就没有从中吸取教训 You know, then you're not learning from it.
如果你从中学习 你就在朝着正确的方向成长 If you're learning from it, you just, you know, you're growing in in the right direction.
这也和做决定有关 It's all about making a decision, too.
在20世纪80年代 我做过交易 我开始交易低价股票 在52周的低点交易 市盈率很低 In the 1980s, I traded. I started off trading low price stocks, trading at 52 week lows, with low p ratios.
我很幸运 我一想到买的股票 就立刻涨了一倍 I got lucky, and the very 1st thought stock I bought, uh, doubled right away.
它叫爱丽丝·查尔默 他们制造了铲车和割草机 It was called Alice Chalmer. They made a forklifts and lawn mowers.
我觉得我是个天才 所以我一直这么做 I thought I was a genius, so I kept doing that.
当然 我把自己炸飞了 Well, of course, I blew myself up.
我买了一些应该有抗艾滋病药物的股票 结果股价跌到了零 Um, I bought some stock that is supposed to have an AIDS, uh drug, and it went to zero.
嗯 所以我把自己炸飞了 想快点拿回来 Um. So I-I blew myself up in options, trying to get it back quick.
这样持续了五六年 最后我说 你知道吗 So this went on for five or six years, and then finally I said, you know what?
这就够了 就足够了 就是这样 That's enough. Is enough. That's it.
我再也不会承受巨大的损失了 I'm never taking a big loss ever again.
如果他们要 如果他们要把我带出去杀了我 他们就会他们就会一站一站地来 And if they're gonna, if they're gonna take me out and kill me, they're gonna it's gonna happen one stop at a time.
他们得给我五分钱然后把我弄死 They're gonna have to nickel and die me to death.
而且在我做出这个决定之后我再也不用担心会有什么大的损失了 因为我再也没有大的损失了 And and I never had to worry about a big drawn on ever again after I made that decision, because I didn't have the big losses any more.
所以 这是关于做一个决定 划清界限 并从那时起坚持这一原则 So again, it's about making a decision, drawing a line in the sand, and stick into that discipline from that point forward.
问题是 我怎样才能停止损失更多的钱 The question is, how to How can I stop losing more money?
最快的 我怎样才能拿回来呢 The fastest not. How can I get it back?
是的 为了不损失更多的钱 你必须把钱存入账户 Yeah. To not lose more money, that you have to add to the account.
也许你需要增加资金 让自己膨胀90% Maybe you have to add money and blow yourself up 90 %.
显然 你可能会增加资金 Obviously you're probably going to add money.
或者 你知道 可能要工作一段时间 Or maybe, you know, have to work for a while.
我必须工作很长一段时间 把钱存入我的账户 I had to work for a long time and add money to my account.
但是 你知道 在我刚开始工作的时候 在我爆发之后 但是 但是 再说一次 你怎么可能不那样做呢 But, you know, back when I 1st started, and after I blew up, but, but, again, yeah, how are you not gonna do that again?
你知道 这是关键 一个问题 You know, that's the key. A question
关于权力游戏 你可以转述一下 采取更大的立场 with regards to powerplays, if you would just paraphrase, take a larger position on
与其他交易相比 你在ppt上的最大仓位是多少 that set up versus other trades, or what's the largest position you would take in a powerpoint?
能量的位置不会影响位置的大小 Well, the power place not gonna really make a difference as far as the position size.
我要做一个大的仓位 因为 I'm going to take a position, a large position sizing, because of,
流动性 风险是最重要的 um, the liquidity, you know, the risk is really the the 1st and foremost.
嗯 我想在我想在每一笔股票交易中都有一个大的位置 如果我可以的话 Um. I want to be in I want to be in a big position in every stock trade if I can.
这是我的 这是我的偏好是在我做的每一笔交易中都持有大量头寸 That's my That would be My preference would be to be in a large position size in every trade I make.
但这当然不会发生 因为我只会在事情进展顺利的时候才会这么做 我有了一些牵引力 我有了一些利润 所以这才是推动这一切的动力 But that's of course not gonna happen, because I'm only gonna do that when things are going well and I've got some traction and I've got some profits, uh, so that's what's gonna fuel that.
我是说 我不知道 马克 你 你知道 你是一个非常喜欢玩弄权术的人 因为我们知道他们 他们非常 你知道 非常有潜力做出大的 快速的行动 I mean, I don't know, marker, you, uh, you know, you're someone who really likes power plays, because we know they're, they're very, uh um, you know, high potential to make big, quick moves.
但你对他们的定位有什么不同吗 But are you positionizing them, uh, any differently?
不 就是你说的那样 这只是 这是每一个设置 No, exactly what you said. It's more just the, it's every setup.
你知道 有时候提图斯的骗局并不一定是一场权力游戏 你知道 它可能是一种控制 甚至可能是一种欺骗 你知道 还有本和流动性 You know, sometimes the the Titus setups aren't necessarily a power play, you know, it could be a handle, it could be, it could even be a cheat, you know, and Ben and liquidity.
所以 是的 这是两者的结合 So, yeah, it's a combination of those two.
汤米在周末的学习课上问 你提到了199495市场 Tommy's asking that during the weekend study session, you brought up the 19 9495 market.
他问你如何比较95年的冠军和2021年的冠军 And he's asking how you could compare the 95 championship versus your 2021 championship.
你是否更有可能持有你的一部分股票 直到他们变动50 Were you more likely to hold a portion of your shares until the 50 they move?
平均 1995年被突破了 而在2021年 你做了更多的短期交易 An average? Uh was was breached in 1995, whereas in 2021, you were doing much more shorter term trading.
他很想知道你们是如何在如此不同的市场条件下赢得总冠军的 He's interested to hear how you were able to win a championship in such different market conditions.
呃 答案是肯定的 在第一个冠军中 我更有可能长期持有股票 UH, the answer is yes. I was much more likely to hold the stock longer term in the 1st championship.
在95年 谈到权力游戏 我实际上把那一年称为权力游戏之年 因为有这么多权力的地方 嗯 这可能就是为什么我在那一年获得了这么大的回报 And in 95, talking about power plays, I actually termed that year the year of the power play, because there were so many power place um And so that might have been why I made had had such a big return that year.
95年我涨了412% I was up 412% in 95.
对我来说 这是非常关键的一年 因为这真的让我的账户里有了一笔钱 我想说 这笔钱从相对来说很小 太大了 And it was a big, it was a big pivotal year for me, because it really got me to have a an amount of money in my account That was went from, I would say, relatively small, too considerable.
嗯 那是我的第一次 你知道 把我的账户变成一个数百万美元的账户 Um. And that was my 1st, you know, step into making my account into a multi million dollar account.
那一年对我来说意义重大 原因有几个 So, um, it was, that was a big year for me for several reasons.
但是 是的 他们我们肯定有更大的移动 只是因为它只是 你没有能力做你所做的 But yeah, they we definitely had a hold for bigger move, just simply because it just was, you didn't have the ability to do what you do to that.
唯一的区别就是你没有这个能力 That's the only difference is you just didn't have the ability.
市场情况是另一种情况 And And the market condition was a different condition.
这是一个 你看看这个图表 我可以把它给你 It was a, you just look at the chart of, um, I can bring that up for you.
让我们看这里 让我们看一下 看一下道琼斯指数 回到我想我们甚至可以看一下从94到95的每周数据 Let's see here, let's look, just look at, uh, look at the Dow, going back to and I guess we can even look at a weekly go back to 94 and 95.
你可以看到 不 对比最近的情况 这段时间 这可能会和9495的情况类似 你修正了 也许你修正得更多 它更像98 你削弱了低点 但你花了一些时间 So you see right here, no compared this recently, this this period, that this could play out similar to 9495, where you correct, and maybe you correct more, it's more like 98, where you undercut the lows, but you spend some time just basing um.
现在 看看这个周期 Now, look at this period right here.
直到4月份我才得到大笔投资 就在这里 I didn't get really heavily invested until April, right here.
那是4月中旬 我记得是4月15日 It was mid April, I think it was april 15.
事实上 就在它周围 就在这里 就在这里 As a matter of fact, right around it, right around here, right around here.
我到这里才开始投资 I didn't even start really getting invested till here.
看看我错过了多少 所谓的错过 So look at how much I would have missed, quote unquote missed.
但看看这个宽松的美元环境 But look at this easy dollar environment.
看看这十周市场是如何上涨的 Look at how the market just marches up this ten week.
即使是道琼斯指数也维持着50天 你知道 所以你可以看到这是如何运作的 Even the Dow held the 50 day, you know, so you could see how that would work really well.
看看这个 看看道琼斯指数的走势 And look at this. Look how the Dow held.
它只是在这里短暂地关闭 It only closed right here briefly.
道琼斯指数在一到两周内收于5日移动平均线以下 并且一直在上涨 在这里形成了基础 All this whole move that Dow jones barely, but one or two weeks closed below the 5th day moving average, and it just kept going, looked formed the base here.
我是说 看看现在 I mean, look at this now.
这是 这是一个UM So this was, this was a UM.
然后 当然 97年 那一年我赢得了UM 美国投资锦标赛 就在这里 And then, of course, 97, this was the year that I won, UM, the U-S Investing championship, right here.
所以它开始了 它出现了 但是她在这里有一个小的修正 这使得它在第一个季度很艰难 So it started off, it came up, but she had this little correction here, and that made it a tough 1st quarter um.
然后在这里 在中间这段时间你经历了修正 从这里到10月份 Then here in that, in that middle period um is where you went through this correction, right here into October.
表面之下的情况要糟糕得多 这让每个人都深受打击 This was much worse beneath the surface, and this hammered everybody.
这段时间我做得很好 And I did really well in this period.
我在这段时间赚了一大笔钱当时整个比赛的所有人都落选了 整个名单都落选了 我想 除了我 Um, I-I made a bunch of money in this period when almost everybody on the entire contest went down, the whole list went down, I think, except me.
我想我是380名参赛者中唯一的一个 I think I was the only one out of, like, 380 competitors.
总之 这只是一些过去的市场 So anyway, that's just looking at some of those, some of those past markets.
我想找马克 里奇 你能解释一下为什么你更喜欢 I was asking for Mark, richie, can you explain why you prefer
看股票显示几天的平均交易量后突破 而不是上升的交易量在一天的突破 to see stock show a few days of average volume following a breakout, rather than elevated volume on the day of the breakout.
你能举个例子吗 And can you show an example of this?
啊 我不知道 我不知道我 Ah, I don't know that. I don't know what I
说 我不想看到成交量太大 said. I didn't want to see strong volume
但我确实说过 有时候 你知道 音量越晚越好 在我看来 这是我从马克那里学来的 这不是我编的 on the day to break up, but I did say that sometimes, you know, volume coming in later, in my view, is better, while I learned that from Mark, I didn't make that up.
看看实际的 你知道 And And just looking at the actual, you know,
交易 如果机构在购买 你知道 像马克和大卫这样的人花了 你知道 他们两人花了70年的时间分析这些东西 trading, where, if the institutions are are buying, you know, guys like Mark and David have spent, you know, seven decades between the two of them analyzing this stuff.
会有这样的出价持续出现 There's going to be that bid that continues to kind of come in.
这与我们在股市看到的情况完全相反 It's exactly the opposite of what we've been seeing in stocks.
没有人出价 有人注意到吗 There's been no bids. Anybody noticed that?
它们会爆发一天 然后就消失了 They break out for a day, and then they just fade.
嗯 所以我 我不认为V-R-T-X是一个很好的例子 我们每天都提到 Um. So I-I don't a good example would be maybe V-R-T-X, um, we bring it up daily.
有几个冬天 你知道 我在上一段时间里 我刚从低仓买下来 有几天几乎没有销量 然后两三个 两个 是的 One of the few winters up, you know, I had over this last period, I was buying it coming right off the low sheet, and there was hardly any volume for a couple of days, and then two or three, two, yeah.
但即使它上升到右边 你知道 量开始慢慢流入 甚至在上面 一旦它突破了原来的高点 当量真正开始进入这里 你就没有真正的就业 直到更长的时间 确切地说 很晚 直到这里 But even as it kind of moved up the right hand side, you know, the volume started to trickle in, even above, once it broke out above the old highs, when the volume really started to come in there, you never really had any employment until longer, exactly, so much later, until over there.
但我可能想说的是 看 如果我买的时候成交量是在下降 我就不会因此卖出 But I might have been making the point, like, look, if, if, if volume is just, is is ripping right when I'm buying it, I would never sell because of that.
然而 它也可能让我竖起天线说 如果这个将会消失 你知道 也许有很多眼睛在看这个名字 如果每个人都买对了 当我买的时候 你知道 我不会像我说的那样 我永远不会 However, it might also get my antenna up to say, if this is going to fade, you know, maybe there are a lot of eyes on this name, if everybody's buying right when I'm buying, you know, that I wouldn't like I said, I would never.
它必须小心不要过度解读 It's got to be careful of reading into that too much.
首先 是我说的 不是马克 1st of all, I'm the one who said that, not Mark.
是我说的 I'm the one who said that.
我更喜欢有时候 你知道 或者我会 我完全没问题 如果音量小 I would prefer sometimes, you know, or I would, I would be perfectly fine if it came out on low volume.
我所关注的是接下来的日子 And what I'm watching is the subsequent days.
比起越狱事件 我更感兴趣的是接下来的日子 I'm more interested in the subsequent days than I am necessarily on the breakout.
现在 这是否意味着如果它在突破日出现大成交量 那很好 只要它在第二天保持住 跟随回调或遇到网球动作的自然反应 Now, does it mean if it comes out on big volume on the on the breakout day, that's great, as long as it holds up the next day, follows through the pullbacks or natural reactions met with tennis ball action.
但是 如果不是这样 它来了 我知道最初的数量可能是很多散户资金 这通常会发生 But again, if it's not and and it comes, it comes in, then I know that initial volume was maybe a lot of retail money, and that will generally happen.
看 一切都是相对的 你必须意识到没有 你知道 你不能绝对地说 你知道 我们不喜欢这里的成交量或这里的成交量 因为如果这是一只股票 嗯 你知道 人群罢工 你知道 每个人 我认识的每个人 都有这只股票在他们的视线范围内 它突破了 你知道 你知道 第四阶段的基础 出现了大量的成交量 我很确定有很多散户资金进入这个名字 Look, everything's relative. You gotta realize that there aren't, you know, you can't just absolutely say, you know, we don't like volume here or this here, because if it's a stock like, um, you know, a crowd strike, you know, where everybody, everybody I know, had that stock on their radar, and it's breaking out of a, you know, 4th stage base that comes out on big volume, I'm pretty sure that there's a lot of retail money coming into that name.
我将非常仔细地观察接下来几天发生了什么 看它是否 如果它开始卖出 成交量增加 你甚至可能会有高成交量 更高的成交量 我将仔细观察 因为这是一个非常好的机会 这是一个拥挤的交易 And I'm going to watch really carefully what happens over subsequent days to see if it, if it runs into selling, and that volume picks up, you get they might even get a high volume up a higher volume in I'm gonna watch carefully, because it's a very good chance that that's a crowded trade.
所以 你知道的 这取决于现在 从一个空白市场 低a-a 你知道 很少有人追随的中等市值公司的第二 第一或第二阶段基础 Pardon upon So, so again, uh, you know it, it depends now, coming off of a bare market, low A-A, you know, 2nd, 1st or 2nd stage base in a midcap company that very few people are following.
我想在分手的时候看到尽可能多的量 I want to see as much volume as possible on the breakup.
我想看到它在15上爆发 1500%的销量增长 一天增长20% I like to see it break out on 15 on a 15 hundred percent volume increase, up 20% for the day.
那 你知道 那是我不会卖的 你知道 我不会卖的 即使它是延伸的 因为它刚刚显示了不可思议的力量 That would, you know, that would be one that I-I wouldn't be selling, you know, I wouldn't be selling it even though it's extended, because that's just shown this incredible power.
这种交易不太可能拥挤 And that's unlikely to be a crowded trade.
很少有人会注意到这一点 Very few people are going to have their eye on that one.
这取决于具体情况 但至少是有颜色的 So it really depends on the situation, but there's some color behind it at least.
好了 彼得 我想问一些关于后续教程的问题 我想这应该是我们在2021年底进行的调查的一部分 All right, um, peter, just asking about some of the follow up with some of the tutorials that I guess was part of the survey that we took at the end of the 2021 year.
他进入2022年 让我看看 He coming into 2022. Let me see.
他还说 谈谈V-I-V-O你的书显示你在2007年购买的股票 从40周的大基数中脱离出来 He also said, uh, talk about V-I-V-O both Your book show that stock purchased back in 2007, breaking out of a large base for the 40 week.
31 3 4 我当时还记得 31, three, four, T-I remember that one at the time.
150天低于200天 看看宪章马库斯的神话 既然它不符合不可谈判的标准 你能解释一下真相吗 The 150 day was below the 200 day, looking at the Charter Marcus myths, since it didn't meet the nonnegotiable criteria, could you please explain the truth?
好吧 我不知道 我们能得到一张追溯到那时候的图表吗 Well, okay, so, I don't know, can we get a chart going back that far?
看看我们能不能 那是 七 对吧 See if we could, uh, that was, oh, seven, right?
是的 我想就在这里 对 1月10日 Yeah. I think it's over here, yeah, january 10.
是的 所以 嗯 我们到了 Yeah. So, um, here we are.
这里 对吧 是的 我就在这里买的 And right here, right? Yeah. I was buying it right here.
让我们把第1帧放大显示我在哪里买的 在这里 So let's just zoom up 1st and just show where I was buying, buying it right here.
你可以看到它的头在第一天就掉了下来 然后它在一个反转的恢复中 我买了它 它就从那里掉出来了 很明显 And you can see it actually stuck its head off that 1st day, and then it was on a reversal recovery that I was buying it, and it, it just ripped out of there, obviously.
我之前说的 如果 如果 嗯 你们可能没有听说过 但你们中的一些人可能听说过 So what I said before, if, if, um, you might not have heard this, but some of you may have.
当你买入一只股票时 有时它会有大的变动 或者是市场处于长期熊市 When you get a stock, sometimes that makes either a big move, or it's the markets in a long bear market.
有时它会形成一个大的基数 它会拉平移动平均线 Sometimes it makes a large base, and it will flatten out the moving averages.
和 And
你会得到01 50 可能低于200 但你会上升 you'll get the 01:50, might be below the 200, and but you'll be up.
你在200以上 Tournerton和 You're above the 200. Tournerton and up.
尝试可能是一个早期的转折 或者可能仍然是一个确认上升趋势的阶段 就所有其他方面而言 除了01 50下滑到200以下 Trying to might either either be an early turn, or maybe it's still a confirm stage to up trend, as far as everything else is concerned, except the 01:50 slips below the one, the 200.
这可能发生 通常情况下 它是在一个大的基地 或在早期的转折 That can happen. Generally it's in a large base, or it's in an early turn.
同样 这是非常罕见的 And again, there's a it's very rare.
Netflix也发生了这种情况 我想是在2010年 Netflix也发生了这种情况 It happened with Netflix, I think, I think in 2010, that was when it happened in Netflix.
我们可以把它提上来 Netflix有一个类似的 如果我没记错的话 类似的右侧 像这样 We can bring that up. And Netflix had a similar, if I remember, is similar right side, like this.
让我们 让我们在脑海中回顾一下第1期 让我们现在看看Netflix 然后看X 回到我买Netflix的时候 Let's, let's take a, like a mental snapshot of this 1st, and let's take a look at Netflix now and fell X, and go back to when I was buying Netflix.
2010年 我收购了Netflix 在那之前有很长一段时间都在横盘 I was buying Netflix back in in 2010, after once for a long period a moving sideways.
看到了吗 那是什么 So you see this? What's that?
这是一段很长的横向发展时期 It's a long period of moving sideways.
他们看到 我是在这里买的 因为它是从这里来的 So they see here, I was buying it right over here, as it was coming right over here.
UM和类似的外观 你会得到这个大的基底 UM And a similar look, where you get this large base.
嗯 我想我没有写01 50 对吧 UM And I don't, I don't think I have 01:50 on here, though, do I?
我们把这个打开 我有一个30 Let's bring this up. I have a 30.
是的 在这里 我这里有个30 Yeah, here. I got a 30 here.
这是Netflix 让我们用3040 看看会有什么效果 So here's Netflix. Let's go with the the 30, 40, and see what that does.
嗯 大约2010 这是一个很大很长的基数 很大很基本 Uh, about 2010. This is big, long base here, big, big, basic.
实际上 当它到达这个点时 是的 短暂地 它在这下面 但在这里 它实际上在上面 Actually, when it got to this point, yeah, briefly, it came below here, but over here, it was actually above it.
所以这并不完全一样 So that wasn't exactly the same.
这是底 雅娜每周 But here's the base. Yana weekly.
看看每周的 看这个VCP多好 Look on the weekly. Look how nice the VCP.
看看右边有多紧 体积就变小了 And see how tight it gets on the right side, so the volume comes down.
看 这是永恒的 我们展示给你的一切都是永恒的 See, this is timeless. All everything we show you is timeless.
你永恒的技术 你可以一遍又一遍地看到 Your timeless techniques. You can see it over and over.
时间范围和周期都不重要 Doesn't matter the time frame, and it doesn't matter the cycle.
你可以回到19世纪 20世纪早期的股票 有一些很好的模型 You can go back to We literally looked at stocks of the 1800s, early 1900s, And there's some good models.
奥尼尔有 呃 几英里的距离你可以从 呃 我想 只能追溯到1896年 O'neil has, uh, some miles that you can You can look at from, uh, only back to, I think, 1896.
我们看看可口可乐 在20世纪20年代和30年代左右 它是一个领导者 G-E和所有那些股票 那时它们基本上是高科技的 铁路当时是高科技的 We look Coca Cola, when it was, you know, a leader in the 1920s and thirties or so, G-E and all those stocks, when they were basically high technology, rails were high tech back then.
你会看到同样的事情发生 You'll see the same thing happening.
但是就1分50秒而言 200秒以上 你很少会遇到这样的情况 But as far as the, you know, the 01:50 is concerned, over the 200, you're going to have very few scenarios like that.
嗯 这将是百分之一 甚至可能是百分之二或百分之三百 所以我不会有两个担心的大公司在这段时间里问 当我们坐在那里观察市场时 我们应该看哪些屏幕来确定新兴的新领导者 Um, it's gonna be one out of a hundred, probably even one out of two or 300, so I wouldn't get two worried megas asking during this time, when we are sitting on a watching the market, which screens should we be looking at to identify emerging new leaders?
就是你平时应该看的那些屏幕 The same screens that you should be watching any other time.
没有区别 你要找的只是那些底价接近52周高点的股票 在25%左右 There's no difference. You're just looking for stocks that are in bases that are within close to their 52 week high, within 25% or so.
这是否意味着他们可以纠正更多的错误呢 Um does it mean that they they can correct more than that?
那可能是3035或40% That might correct 3035 or 40 %?
但是当你从低作弊者手中购买时 你希望他们在25%以内或者更高 你有相对的实力 But at the time that you're buying them from the low cheat, that cheater handle, you want them to be within about 25% or better to the to the highs, you have relative strength.
我更喜欢89或更好 当你在调整时 我希望相对趋势更高 因为现在股票在市场回调或调整期间保持坚挺 你甚至不需要上涨就能获得较高的相对强度 I prefer 89 or better. When you're in a correction, I want the relative trend to be even higher, because now that's when the stocks are holding up during a pullback in the market or correction, you don't even have to go up to get a high relative strength.
你只需要减少一点 You just have to go down less.
所以这就是你需要坚持相对强度的时候 So that's when you really want to be a stickler on the relative strength.
这是另一件事 人们做的完全相反 That's another thing that people, they do completely the opposite.
在牛市持续了很长一段时间之后 他们开始寻找 或者寻找强势股票的高线 They they start looking, or looking at the high roads of strength stocks after a bull market's been running for a long time.
这些股票是延伸的 有很大的波动 在后期的基础上 落后者试图赶上 这就是你要做的 And those are the stocks that are extended, have made big moves, coming on a late stage basis, and the laggers are trying to catch up, and that's where you.
你可能想要尝试在调整中做一些落后的股票 你有下跌最少的股票 或者实际上在调整中上涨的股票 它们将获得一个非常高的相对强度 Might want to try to play some laggers in the in in a correction, you've got the stocks that are going down the least amount, or actually going up during the correction, they're going to rack up a really high relative strength.
所以你要在99-98年的相对强势中买入 然后在走出低点时买入相对强势真正高的股票 So you want to go in the highest relative strength in 99 to 98, and go for the really high relative strength stocks when you're coming off the lows.
拉霍是个新人 Raho is a new
交易员 只有大约6个月 trader, only about six months long.
现在 他问在哪里可以了解到利率和加息是如何运作的 Now, he's asking where he can learn about how interest rates and rate hikes work.
作为一个初学者 我现在就必须理解这个吗 As a beginner, do I have to understand this now?
我想说的是 尽量远离这些 只关注股票 I would, I would say, to try to stay as far away from that as you can and just focus on the stocks.
我不知道你能从哪里了解到这一点 I don't know where you can learn about that.
我的意思是 我在周末的视频中谈到了很多 我想你们知道我给你们的利率是你想要的 I mean, I do a lot of talking about that during our weekend videos, and I think you know what I give you on interest rates is about as far as you want to take.
你不需要知道比你知道的更多的东西 You don't really need to know much more than you know.
显然 利率上升对经济不利 如果利率上升到一定水平 就会引发对股票的竞争 Obviously, rates moving up are not good for the economy, and if they get to a certain level, they create competition for stocks.
但市场也可以对这个周期打折扣 But the market also can discount that cycle.
在利率上升的时候 市场会上涨 And you can have where we've had cycles where market moves up during rate increases.
事实上 大多数时候 当你第一次看到联邦基金的增长时 市场会随着利率的上升而上升 As a matter of fact, most of the time, when you 1st get those fed fund increases, the market moves up with the rates.
然后在某个时刻 如果利率上升得足够快 可能会导致经济放缓或衰退 市场会贴现 进入熊市调整 And then at some point, if it, if the rates move up enough or fast enough, it could create a slow down economy or recession and that, and the market will discount that and go into a bear marketer correction.
但是你知道吗 如果你想赚钱和交易 你想成为一个伟大的交易者 就看好股票 因为他们会 他们会从股票中得到所有的钱 But you know what, if you want, if you want to make money and trading, you want to be a great trader, watch the stocks, because they're gonna, they're gonna get all that in stocks.
现在 这是底线 嗯 Now, that's the bottom line. Um?
如果你从宏观角度出发 你试着提出宏观第一 然后寻找群体 然后寻找股票 你永远找不到领导者 If you go that Macros way, and you try to come up with the Macroview 1st, and look for the groups and then look for the stocks, you're never going to find the leaders.
他们总是会消失的 They're always going to be gone.
它们看起来总是很贵 因为在这个大的市场观点中 你太忙了 没空买它们 They're always going to seem expensive because you're too busy for them in this big market opinion.
领导者在领导 所以我会只看股票 And the leaders lead. So I would just look at stocks.
詹姆斯 Erence在M-R-T-N的密码是33吗 James, is Erence in M-R-T-N having a code 33?
在VCP里这对我来说便宜吗不 不便宜 Is this a cheap for me within the VCP No, it's not.
这不是一个好的g It's not a good g um.
我不确定 即使你提出 让我们以M-R-T-N的宪章来讨论市场 首先 你又来了 I'm not sure Even if you bring, let's bring up the markets with the charter that M-R-T-N 1st of all, here you go again.
85年亲人的力量 得到了低于标准的相对强度 85 relatives strength. Was got a sub par relative strength.
这里有一个很大的修正 You had a big correction here.
你在左边有很多的管理供给 You got a lot of overhead supply to the left side.
嗯 你知道 右边不是很对称 Um, you know, this is not very symmetrical on the right side.
听着 我建议你去看看 Look, what I would suggest is you go and take a look.
首先比较一下你的图表和我的账簿上的价格 看看 这看起来像我交易的价格吗 Start off at just comparing your charts with the charge that are in my books, and see, does this look like what I'm trading?
这看起来像我们一直交易的股票类型和图表类型吗 Does this look like the type of names that we've been trading and the type of chart?
当你第一次开始的时候 你可能会认为它是 And and when you 1st start, you might think it does.
你知道 你看 因为你没有专业知识 但你必须测量 做测量 You know, you look in and this because you don't have the expertise, but you've got to measure, do the measurements.
看一看 左边的供应 Take a look, look at the supply on the left side.
看看它有多对称 Look at what how symmetrical it is.
相对强度 相对强度线 这应该是一张不 我不会 我不会考虑 抱歉 鲍勃 这并不意味着它不能上升 Relative strength, relative strength line. This should be A-A chart that No, I would not, I would not consider, I'm sorry, bob, doesn't mean it can't go up.
从这里可以翻倍 那是不相关的 It might double from here. That that that's irrelevant.
最重要的是 我们想要从一系列环境中走出来 这些环境是一致的 是我们知道的参照点 The bottom line is that we want to come off of a set of circumstances that are consistent and a reference point that we know.
我们知道在这种情况下会发生什么 We know what to expect under that.
在这样和那样的条件下 我不知道对这只股票有什么期待 Under those conditions and these conditions, I don't know what to expect from this stock.
詹姆斯 詹姆斯在问关于J-B-H-T-J-B的搜索 这是一个伺机而逃的暗礁布局吗 James. James is asking on J-B-H-T-J-B hunt, would this be a ledge pattern setting up as a short opportunity?
是的 它是 最近看看这个 事实上 我也有同样的想法 Yeah, it is. Just looking at this recently, as a matter of fact, thinking the same thing.
这将是你在这方面的眼光非常非常敏锐 因为这是为数不多的几只股票之一 我 我 我注意到 你知道 我认识的其他一些人 他们一直在谈论做空并提出要做空的名字 Um, this was gonna that's a very, very good eye that you have there on that, because that was one of the few stocks that, um, I-I, I've been noticing, you know, um, some other people that I know, they've been talking about shorts and bringing up names to short.
嗯 如果市场再次下跌 做空可能会奏效 UM. And if, again, if the market goes down, certainly on any short will probably work.
嗯 但我一直 我一直想找到在破产时无法反弹的股票 我找不到很多这样的股票 除了一些名字 比如netflix和teaDock UM. But I've been, I've been wanting to find stocks at a broke and can't rally, and I'm not able to find a lot of those, except some of the names, like a, you know, netflix and tea Dock.
其中一些名字 比如凯特的名字 跌幅很大 可能还会更低 And some of these names, that of Kate, made big declines, which they could still go lower.
但是 你知道的 那里有严重的超卖 But there's, you know, there there deeply oversold.
但我喜欢他们先突破基地火力 先突破200度以下 然后他们他们无法集结 直接从这里过去 But I like when they 1st break a base fire, they 1st break below the 200, and then they they can't rally, and they just go straight across here.
这就是那个场景 And this is exactly that scenario.
对了 这就是我想穿短款的那款 So, um, yeah, this was the one that I was considering putting on shorterler.
这种情况下的问题是 他们可能会有反弹 你知道 他们有时会回到200天和50天 你知道 穿过巡回赛 Problem with these types of situations, they, they can have rallies, you know, where they sometimes they pop back to the 200 and the 50 day, you know, crosses the tourner.
而且 你知道 你可能 可能需要几次尝试 你知道 在你做出正确的决定之前 And, you know, you might, it might take a few tries, you know, before you get it right.
但大多数情况下我都不会剪短的那一边 But I stay away from the short side for the most part.
我只是觉得没必要 I just don't think it's necessary.
但这回答了你的问题 这绝对会我们会成为一个平台 对吧 But this answer your question. This would absolutely will we be A-A ledge, right?
肯是新来的 他想知道你是否会像尼尔教的那样 在阻力价格线上加0 1美元 Um, ken is asking, being relatively new here, wants to know if you add $0.10 to the price line of of resistance, like our neal teaches,
得到一个轴心点的价格 to get a pivot point price?
嗯 你可以 你知道 有些时候 嗯 这取决于 你知道 我想拥有它多少 情况有多紧张 市场有多好 一切都在运转 你知道 我第二次买它 Um, you could, you know, there's times where, um, it depends, you know, how much I want to own it, how tight things are, how well the markets, where things are working, You know, I'm buying it the 2nd.
一便士 如果不是 我可能会多给一点 It goes one penny. Um, if they're not, I might give it a little bit more it.
这取决于它是否广泛 嗯 你知道 有很多事情 但一般来说 你知道 给它一个五分或一角是好的 那不是 那不是问题 It depends if it's a widespread, um, you know, there's a number of things, but generally speaking, you know, to give it a nickel or a dime is fine, that's not, that's not a problem.
我的意思是 给它一点保证它通过了枢轴 这是完全没问题的 I mean, to give it just a little assurance that it is getting through the pivot, that's perfectly fine.
我不知道 马克 你有什么关于这方面的标准操作程序吗 I don't know, mark, do you have any sort of um standard operating procedure as far as that's concerned?
或者有没有什么东西可以让你从 你知道的 仅仅打破一便士到可能达到05 10或美分或更多 Or is there anything that would make you go from, you know, just breaching it by a penny to may be going to 05:10 or cents or more?
是啊 我也没有规定 Yeah, I don't have a rule in it either.
通常 我只是看 我设置闹钟 Normally, I just look at, I set the alarms.
所以我通常只会定好闹钟 不管价格如何 然后观察价格变化 嗯 你知道我更感兴趣的地方是那个支点上面的床 你明白我的意思吗 So I usually just set the alarm, whatever the price is, and then I look at the price action, um, and you know where I'm more interested in it is the are the beds above that pivot, you know what I mean?
你可以看出 不是有人 为了一百股 就在支点上方 特别是 比如 在一天的第一天 但我没有规定 我必须去1010美分或类似的东西 Um, where you can tell it's not just someone, you know, dinged it for a hundred shares, right above the pivot, where, you know, especially if it's, like, say, 1st in the day, but I don't have a rule where I-I have to go 1010 cents or anything like that.
以上 我觉得马克说得很对 Above. Yeah, I think marks making a good point.
你知道 我们在观察这些股票 你知道 当它们交易时 You know, you have looking at, we're watching these stocks, you know, as they trade.
所以观察这个时间段的成交量是很重要的 So seeing the volume that comes in around that time is important.
如果他们能达到这个水平 And if they can get the bit above that level.
有时 当他们拿到高于这个水平的部分时 他们会问 是不是比你想要支付的高出太多了 Now, sometimes, by the time they get the bit above that level, they ask, is actually too far above where you'll do wanted to pay?
所以你要小心使用它 你知道 作为一个绝对的规则 So you got to be careful using that as, you know, an absolute rule.
但同样 这是一个 你知道 这是一个迹象 你知道 它显然是断裂的 But again, that's a, you know, that's an indication that, you know, it is clearly broken out.
嗯 但同样 你知道 观察它在那个价格上的交易 但是 你知道 就像马克说的 你知道 就像100股一样 你知道 它高出一便士 Um? But again, you know, watching how it trades at that price also, but just, you know, just digs it for a hundred shares, as uh Mark said, you know, and it's one penny above.
我不会咬图片问的 我看到盒子上有个问题 Yeah, I'm not gonna bite pictures asking, I saw a question on box.
我认为 足够做一个简单的问题了 I think. Enough for does a quick question.
当你持有现金时 你会投资固定收益证券 还是只持有现金 While you're in cash, do you invest in any fixed income securities, or just keep it in cash?
我投资的唯一固定收益就是我们的货币市场 你知道 那些完全没有风险的东西 The only fixed income that I invest in is our money markets, you know, things that are have no risk at all.
当我持有现金时 它会进入零风险的货币市场 So when I'm in cash, it's going in zero risk money markets.
我不喜欢化学键 我只投资现金等价物 风险几乎为零 Um, I don't by bonds. I don't go in anything other than just cash equivalents with, you know, as close to zero risk as I can get.
你继续读吧 You go ahead and read the box.
是的 我们只是想问这是不是一个提前的转折 And yeah, we're just asking if it's if it's an early turn.
嗯 首先 我想看看每周的 Um. So 1st of all, I want to look at a weekly um.
这不是一个早期的转折 It is not an early turn.
早转弯应该在这下面 An early turn would be way down here.
当你开始出现在这里 这是一个早期的转折 When you just start to turn up over here, this would be an early turn um.
现在 现在你已经进入了一个确定的阶段 你在这个确定的阶段形成了基础 显示趋势 Now, now you've gotten into a confirm stage to uptread, and you formed the base within that confirmed stage show up trend.
所以这不是一个早期的转变 So this was not an early turn over here.
现在 好了 就快结束了 Now. Okay, um, getting close to wrapping up here.
呃 马克在过去尝试过热自助餐的方法 这种价值方法令人好奇 Uh? As Mark tried warm buffets methodology in the past, the value approach is curious.
他们认为表演怎么样 What do these think of the performance?
我认为你在真正的职业生涯中回答了这个问题 I think you kind of answer that in a really career.
不 我 是的 我从来没能以我想要的方式运作 那就是持续获得巨大的回报 No, I I've, yeah, I I've never been able to make that work in the way that I wanted to work, and that is to get big returns consistently.
嗯 你知道 这需要经历大的下跌 长时间的表现不佳 在下跌的时候买股票 而且几乎总是在你再次回来之前赔钱 有时是相当大的损失 加上输家 所有这些都能让你崩溃 Um, you know, that requires going through big drawdowns, the long periods of under performance, and buying stocks on the downside, and almost always being at a loss before you're at again, sometimes at a considerable loss, adding to losers, all the things that can blow you up.
你知道 如果你在优质的公司做 多元化的 你知道 你可以得到一个不错的回报 但你仍然会有很大的下降 Um, you know, again, if you're doing it in quality companies, diversified, you know, you could get a decent return, but you're still going to have big drawdowns.
我伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有50%的公路所有权 这一切都在上升 你知道 比标准普尔500多一点 And me Berkshire hathaways had 50% roadowns and all that to be up, you know, a little bit more than S-P 500.
所以我觉得这里没有风险和回报 So I-I just don't think the risk and reward is there.
顺便说一下 他们中有四五个人 其中四五个人 百分之五十的人辍学了 对吧 And a four or five of them mark, by the way, four or five of them, yeah, 50% dropouts, right?
谁知道50岁的人什么时候会变成80岁或90岁 And who knows when the fifties going to be an 80 or 90?
谁知道会不会是在你需要钱的时候 And who knows if that's going to be at the time when you need the money.
所以 嗯 是的 这就是关键所在 So, um, yeah. So that that's really the key there.
嗯 我还看到了一个很有趣的问题 我想回答的问题是 我们在每天的条目上有创意 因为每周图表很棒 Um. I also saw the question here that was interesting, that I want to answer, that we ever get creative with an entry on the daily because the weekly chart is great.
你知道 这对你来说可能也是一个很好的问题 And, you know, that's probably a probably good question for you too.
马克 嗯 答案 不 我得到 Mark. Um, the answers? No, I get
每天都有创意 只是因为 当我说到创意时 它仍然是一个可靠的风险回报决定 creative on the daily, just simply because, you know, and when I say creative, it's still going to be a sound risk reward decision.
呃 Uh?
我的创造力可能和我的创造性戏剧相差不大 或者可能比大多数人98%的戏剧更自律 My creativity doesn't go too far from probably my my creative plays, or probably more disciplined than 98% of most people's plays.
我会说 And I would say
马克·里奇也是如此 他最有创意的游戏可能仍然比大多数交易员更有纪律 他们的交易也更有纪律 the same thing about Mark Richie, and probably his most creative plays are probably still, you know, far more disciplined than most traders that they're with their most disciplined, uh, trades.
所以 不 我都想要 你知道 我都想要 So, no, I want both, you know, I want both to be there.
我希望每周和每天都有 I want the weekly and the daily to be there.
嗯 这是经常的 但我不知道 你会在日常生活中变得更有创意吗 Um, that's oftenly, but I don't know, are you going to get more creative on the daily mark?
因为每周都很棒 我觉得你做了一个很好的区分 Because the weekly is great. I think you made a really good distinction there.
有创意并不意味着不自律 Creative does not mean less disciplined.
呃 所以有些人的想法很有创意 你就开始轻率行事 Uh? So some people think creative, you just start shooting it from the hip.
各种各样的东西 一般来说 是的 我会说 不 That all kinds of stuff. And generally, yeah, I would say, no, um.
我可能会做的是 看 这是我唯一一次使用盘中数据 Or So something I might do is look, this is the one time I would use the intraday.
也许 嗯 也许股票有一点缺口 然后我看 有没有什么方法可以让我在盘中入市 Maybe, um, maybe the stock gapped a little bit, and then I look for, is there a little way I can still get on board on the intraday?
这是我很少用的东西 如果我仍然想拥有它 因为我仍然想要一个较低的扫描点靠在上面 And that's something I use rarely, if I still want to own it, because I still want a lower scantry point to lean against.
我不会仅仅因为想拥有而去买东西 I'm not just going to buy something just to buy because I want to own it.
你知道吗 我的意思是 天哪 你的底线是什么 You know? I mean, shoot, where do you draw the line while the monthly looks good?
现在 我要有创意了你知道 总有一个理由试图说服自己去做一些事情 Now, I'll get creative on the You know, there's, there's always a reason to try and talk yourself into something.
如果我找不到低风险点 我就不会去做 If I can't find the low risk spot, though, I'm not going to do it.
你只要放手就好 You just got to let it go.
是的 我和我在一些情况下很有创意 首先 风险很低 可能是一个非常大的猫的名字 你知道 风险很低 Yeah, I and I get creative in situations where, well, 1st of all, though, either really low risk, maybe it's a very big cat name, you know, and and the risk is much lower.
比如 苹果公司最近就提到了这个问题 Um, for instance, apple recently bring that up.
我的意思是 苹果 是的 这是一个非常有创意的入口 就在这里 在这个拉回 I mean, apple, yeah, it was a very creative entry that I made right over here on this pull back.
我想日期就在这附近 I think the date was round right around here.
嗯 而且 你知道 虽然停球很紧 我想我是在冒百分之一多一点的风险 Um. And, you know, again, with the stop was so tight though, I think I was risking a, you know, a little over a percent.
所以这就是我要发挥创意的地方 你知道 在类似的事情上 So that's where I'm going to get creative, you know, in something like that.
或者相反 超级强大的名字 你知道的 有力量的名字 我想在这个名字上 Or the opposite, where the super strong names, you know, of the power place this names that I want to be on this name.
我不想让她知道这个名字 I don't want to Ms. this name.
这是一支爆炸性的股票 它展示了 你知道 不可思议的潜力 So it's this explosive stock. It's showing, you know, incredible potential.
我要确保我上了那该死的车 I want to make sure I get on the damn thing.
但我不会 当然 就像马克刚才说的 我不会 呃 放弃我的纪律 呃 然后变得草率 But I'm not gonna, of course, as Mark just said, I'm not gonna, uh, forsake my discipline, uh, and get sloppy that way.
事实上 当我有创意的时候 我通常会停得更紧 I'm, a matter of fact, when I get creative, usually my stop is tighter.
通常我越有创意 我冒的风险就越小 Usually the more creative I get, the less risk I'm taking.
但这是两种情况 大盘股 止损点非常非常低 止损点非常非常紧 隔夜风险非常低 或者是非常强势的股 我只是想确保我有某种仓位所以他们的设置不是绝对完美的 所以我试图想办法入市 But those are the two type of scenarios, the big cap names, where I've got very, very low stop, a very, very tight stop, with very low overnight risk, or the really strong names that I just want to make sure that I get some type of position on so and they're not set up absolutely perfectly, so I try to figure out a way to get on board.
嗯 不管怎样 我想我们现在要跑了 Um. So anyway, I think we're going to run now.
对吧 他们有大约1小时15分钟听着 如果有什么事情 你知道 毛发变多了 或者有什么要谈的 我肯定会回来的 Right? They have about an hour and 15 min Listen if things, you know, should get hairy hair, or there's anything to talk about, I'll certainly come back in the room.
我还想指出的是 这是我们新的Monolert产品 它不是平台本身作为一个特定的产品 I just want to also point out that this our new Monolert product, which is not the platform itself as a specific product.
新的Modeler产品是一个特定的产品 我认为它将会让您大吃一惊 The new Modeler product is a specific product that I think is going to blow you away.
这让我大吃一惊 我一直在用 简直难以置信 It's blown me away. I've been using it, and it's unbelievable.
我说不出它有多有用 It's, I can't say how helpful it is.
嗯 所以我们打算在下周末之前让它投入使用 UM. So we're going to try to launch it for use by the end of next week.
希望下周四之前 你们能使用 Hopefully by Thursday of next week, you guys will be using Um.
我不确定我们是否会在那之前或那天做一个教程 但我们也会 我自己做一个教程 Bob 也许是Mark 也会在那里 And I'm not sure if we're gonna do a tutorial before that or on that day, but we'll also, I'll do a tuttorial myself, and Bob, maybe Mark, will be on there too.
我们会过一遍所有的功能以及我们所做的 We'll go over it and go over all the features and exactly what we've done.
然后 这将是一种beta测试 And then also, this will be a sort of a beta test.
你们会使用它 然后给我们一些反馈 让我们知道 你喜欢它的什么 还有其他你认为它应该做的事情吗 You guys will use it um and then give us some feedback and let us know, you know, what you like about it, and does anything else that you know, you think that maybe it should be doing?
我们可以 我们可以把它带给程序员和程序 That we can, we can, um bring to the programmers and programme.
所以我们也会根据你们的反馈来开发它 So we'll be developing it also based on your feedback.
我们很快就会讲到 So that'll be coming up real soon.
与此同时 监视站台就行 In the meantime, uh, just monitor the platform.
我知道现在有点无聊 但是 我们可以 你知道的 我们只是 你永远不会知道 I know it's a little boring time right now, but, uh, we could be, you know, again, we just, you just never know.
我曾见过这样的时期 它看起来好像什么都没有 然后突然之间 我不知道在哪里 它们就像从木头里冒出来一样 I've seen these periods where it looks like there's nothing, and then all of a sudden, full, I don't know where, they just seem to come out of the woodwork.
所以要为交易的另一方做好准备 做好行动的准备 要有耐心 So just be prepared for the other side of the trade, and be prepared to act, and just be patient.
但是不要 不要 不要在这里强行交易 因为没有理由这么做 But don't, don't, don't force any trades here, because there's no reason to.
我们现在有个很好的机会 We have a really good opportunity at some point here.
待会再和你们聊 Um, talk to you guys later.
谢谢你马克 谢谢鲍勃 我懂了 而且总有男的 Thanks Mark. Thanks Bob. I got it, and there's always guys.
我们结束后 每一出戏都将在这里张贴 Every play will be posted here momentarily when we finish up.
还有一个简单的事项 尼尔 你问的是比尔特名单只在本周生效 所以 这周结束了 是的 我们就一笔勾清了 然后加上这周比尔特的活动 维勒名单的活动名称是什么 And just one quick housekeeping note, neil, you're asking The Bilert list is only vowed for the current week, so as, uh, the week ends, yes, we wipe the slate clean, and then with the current week's activity of biler is, what is the active names for the Viler list?
这 So that
我们也每天更新站点 and we update stops every day too.
不是说它们变了 而是我们我们读 你每天都去看 它们可以每天更新 Not that they change, but we re we read, you visit them every day, and they could be updated on a daily basis
了 谢谢你 再见 already. Thank you. Bye.