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Welcome back. In this section, we're going to see forward volatility in action.  
欢迎回来。在这一部分中，我们将看到远期波动率的实际应用。

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We're going to explore VIX futures.  
我们将探讨VIX期货。

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Now, a perfect example of where we can see this forward volatility in action in the real world is in VIX futures.  
现在，我们可以在现实世界中看到远期波动率实际应用的一个完美例子就是VIX期货。

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VIX futures are actually forward volatility contracts.  
VIX期货实际上是远期波动率合约。

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The way they are priced is by looking at the term structure, looking at two points in time in the future,  
它们的定价方式是通过查看期限结构，观察未来两个时间点，

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doing these forward vol calculations that we've just described to then spit out a number that is the forward vol.  
进行我们刚刚描述的远期波动率计算，得出一个远期波动率的数值。

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And if you want to look at it, what it's saying intuitively, well, you've got VIX spot here at 19.17.  
如果你直观地来看，它的意思是，当前的VIX现货价格是19.17。

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What does that mean?  
这是什么意思？

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It essentially means that one month.  
它基本上意味着一个月。

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One month vol starting today is priced at 19.17.  
从今天开始，一个月的波动率定价为19.17。

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We then look at the first VIX contract and we see that that's priced at 20.95,  
然后我们看看第一个VIX合约，它的定价为20.95，

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which is nearly about 1.8 vols above what the VIX is.  
这比VIX现货价格高出大约1.8个波动率点。

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That 1.8 vols is the term premium because that deck contract in the VIX represents  
这1.8个波动率点是期限溢价，因为那个VIX合约代表着

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what the current.  
当前市场。

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The current market is pricing implied vol for the one month period starting on December VIX expiry.  
当前市场为从12月VIX到期日开始的一个月期间定价的隐含波动率。

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And that's not until the 21st of December, which is nearly a month away.  
这要到12月21日才开始，离现在还有将近一个月。

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So the market is saying, even though your one month vol right now starting today is worth around 19.17,  
因此，市场表示，尽管从今天开始的一个月波动率是19.17，

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the volatility for the one month period starting in a month, that is nearly two vols higher.  
但一个月后开始的那个一个月的波动率几乎高出两个波动率点。

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That's because of the term premium.  
这是由于期限溢价的原因。

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And we talk about that risk that the market price is in for future unknowns.  
我们讨论的是市场为未来未知风险定价的这一部分。

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Now, if we look to the next contract, we see January, that's even more expensive.  
现在，如果我们看下一个合约，我们看到1月份的定价更高。

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So we've got our VIX spot at 19.17.  
因此，我们的VIX现货价格为19.17。

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We've got our first contract at 20.95, a nice hefty premium of around 1.7 vols.  
我们的第一个合约价格为20.95，较VIX现货有约1.7个波动率点的溢价。

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And now we go to the next contract.  
现在我们看看下一个合约。

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That's 22.92.  
它的价格是22.92。

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So another contract.  
所以又一个合约。

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Another two vols on top of that.  
在此基础上又增加了两个波动率点。

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So we're seeing that this term premium keeps going.  
因此我们看到这种期限溢价持续存在。

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The further and further we go, there's excess volatility being priced in those periods of one month.  
随着时间的推移，每个月的定价中都包含了额外的波动率。

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Each of those contracts represents one month in terms of the time window.  
每一个合约都代表一个月的时间窗口。

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But that month doesn't start until some point in the future.  
但那个一个月要到未来某个时间点才开始。

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So this one starts towards the 21st of December.  
所以这个月从12月21日左右开始。

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This one will be starting mid-July.  
这个则会从7月中旬开始。

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So the market is saying, right now, your one month volatility is at 19, but middle of January, we're expecting one month vol to be 22.92.  
因此，市场的意思是，当前一个月的波动率为19，但我们预计到1月中旬，一个月的波动率将达到22.92。

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Now, the truth is, it's not the market necessarily expecting it.  
实际上，并不是市场一定预期会如此。

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It's just that they're applying a risk premium because that's the way it works.  
而是因为他们在加上风险溢价，因为这是市场的运行方式。

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There's a risk premium for that uncertainty and those unknowns.  
对于那些不确定性和未知因素，市场会加上风险溢价。

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Now, a lot of the time, that risk.  
很多时候，这种风险

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Premium is unwarranted and the market ends up not doing much.  
溢价是多余的，市场最终并没有太大波动。

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And that risk premium that's being priced just decays away to nothing.  
而定价中的风险溢价就会逐渐衰减至无。

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And the way you would see that is by these contracts moving down through time.  
你可以看到这些合约随着时间推移而下跌。

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So for anyone who watches the VIX futures and how they trade and how they behave, what you often see is they trade at a premium to VIX spot.  
对于关注VIX期货交易和其行为的人来说，经常会看到它们以高于VIX现货的溢价交易。

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Markets kind of do their thing.  
市场按部就班运行。

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And nothing really happens.  
并没有发生什么特别的事。

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And markets trade sideways or keep rallying and things stay calm.  
市场横盘整理或继续上涨，局势保持平稳。

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And these VIX contracts just roll down and decay down towards what is ultimately the spot VIX level.  
这些VIX合约就会逐渐回落，并衰减至最终的VIX现货水平。

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And sometimes that spot VIX level can also go down as well.  
有时VIX现货水平也会下跌。

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I mean, 19 arguably has got a fair amount of room to go lower.  
可以说19还有一定的下行空间。

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It might even go down to 15.  
它可能会跌至15。

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And then those VIX contracts will fall even more.  
到那时，这些VIX合约将会跌得更多。

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And this moved down in 2019.  
在2019年也发生过这种下跌。

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And VIX contracts is something that many market traders in volatility space, they play that trade.  
VIX合约是许多波动率领域的市场交易者常进行的一种交易。

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It's called the VIX roll down trade.  
这叫做VIX滚动下跌交易。

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VIX roll down.  
VIX滚动下跌。

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And it's a way of harvesting that risk premium.  
这是一种收取风险溢价的方式。

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It's a way of saying, I believe the market's going to stay in the status quo.  
这种方式是在表达我相信市场将维持现状。

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Nothing major is going to change.  
不会有重大变化。

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And this premium in the VIX futures is going to decay away to zero.  
VIX期货的溢价将逐渐衰减至零。

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And I'm going to short the VIX futures to benefit from.  
我会通过做空VIX期货来获利。

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And that is a very common trade.  
这是一种非常常见的交易。

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It's arguably a very profitable trade most of the time.  
大多数情况下，这无疑是一个非常有利可图的交易。

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But just be aware that when it goes wrong, you're essentially short the front end of the VIX.  
但需要注意的是，当它出错时，你实际上是在做空VIX的前端。

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And that is the thing that can really spike the most because there's people use the VIX as a hedging instrument.  
而这部分可能是波动最大的，因为很多人将VIX用作对冲工具。

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They buy it when they're fearful and it can explode quite violently and quite quickly.  
他们在恐慌时买入，VIX可能会迅速而剧烈地上涨。

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And if we go back to, you know, say the Corona crisis.  
如果我们回顾一下新冠危机期间，

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It got as high as 80 in the front end, right?  
VIX前端价格曾高达80，对吧？

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So it can have a lot of upside to it.  
因此，它有很大的上行空间。

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So be very careful when shorting it, if that's what you choose to do.  
所以如果你选择做空VIX，一定要非常谨慎。

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But as a systematic carry harvesting risk premium harvesting type strategy, it can be very successful and it tends to make money most of the time.  
但作为一种系统性套息、收取风险溢价的策略，它大多数情况下都很成功，且通常能赚钱。

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So there you have we've covered forward volatility and how you can see in action.  
好了，我们已经讲解了远期波动率及其实际应用。

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In the VIX futures and and generally just what it means about term structure and term premium.  
在VIX期货中的应用，以及关于期限结构和期限溢价的含义。

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So to to trade this term structure, the trades you generally do are calendar spread trades.  
所以，要交易这种期限结构，通常使用的策略是日历价差交易。

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We will cover these later on in this video series where we talk about more advanced strategies.  
我们将在后续的视频系列中讨论这些更高级的策略。

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But in the next video, the next thing we're going to talk about is volatility skew.  
但在下一个视频中，我们将讨论的是波动率偏斜。