大家好 hello everyone
欢迎来到这个周末的每周学习环节 welcome to this weekend's weekly study session
我要 I'm going to
这个周末的学习分为两部分两个视频吗 do this weekend study session in two parts two videos
这将是第一次 this will be the first
哪一种涵盖一般市场 which will cover the general market
然后我会发布另一个视频 and then I'll post another video
应该是今天晚些时候吗 should be later on today
这是星期六 which is Saturday
在 on the
个股 individual stocks
我们先来看一看 so let's start off and take a look at
一般的市场 the general market
首先来看一下风险模型 starting off with taking a look at the risk model
手机信号当然还在 cell signal of course is still in an
11月20日起生效 effect from November 20 seconds
我们成立公司已经有一段时间了 it's been quite a while that we've had a firm
手机信号真的没有 cell signal with really no
没有任何运动 no movement whatsoever
它甚至把我们放到了警报类别中 it's even put us to the by alert category here so
这仍然是一个危险的环境 definitely still a risky environment
你可以看到普通市场 you can see general market
移动 moved
从中性回到负面，我们有一个分配日 back to negative from neutral we had a distribution day
进来 come in
在一些积累之后，就会跟进一些数据 on the heels of some accumulation a follow through data
我马上就会讲到 and I'll talk about that in just a second
这样它就又变成负的了 and that put it back on to negative
上下成交量为中性 up down volume is neutral
新高新低当然是负面的 new highs new lows of course negative
股票参与率我实际上提高到了中性 and stock participation I actually raised to neutral
然而 however
我不会对此太兴奋的 I wouldn't get too excited about that
有一个很窄的 there's a very narrow
市场的表现区域 area of the market that's performing
但我们确实有一点牵引力 but we do have a little bit of traction
在市场的几个领域 in a couple areas of the market
不平衡 unbalanced
我马上也会讲到这个 and I'll talk about that also in just a second
和更多的 and more
下一节讲个股的时候 when we talk about individual stocks in the next video
让我们来看看 so let's take a look here at the
Stem模型，这是最重要的 stem model and that's really what is most
对于个股来说很重要 important to look at as far as for individual stocks
还没搬吗 have not moved that yet
从最大值开始 off of the maximum
谨慎行事 caution if you will
红色，还没改到橙色 red and haven't even moved it to orange yet
所以我不认为环境是任何类型的 so again I don't think the environment is any type of
市场认为你应该积极进取 market that you should be getting aggressive here
原因有很多 there's a number of reasons why
我会 which I'll
在总结中谈论 talk about in the summary
风险模型上的手机信号 the cell signal on the risk model
是你能找到的最及时的吗 was about as timely as you can get
就在那天 it was on the day that
我们成功了 we made the high and the nazdack
我们有了大逆转 and we had that big reversal
当然，从那时起 of course since then
纳扎克几乎掉了20%，接近20% the nazak has come off almost 20% just shy of 20%
我们已经反弹了约10% and we've had a rally back of about 10%
这还没到200天呢 that didn't even get us to the 200 day
我们低于200日移动均线 we are below the 200 day moving average
低于50日移动均线 below the 50 day moving average
58个移动平均线 58 moving averages in a
非常陡峭的下降趋势 pretty steep down trend
所以我们还是一无所获 so we still have nowhere
无论何时接近扭转这个市场 whenever close to turning this market
进入新的上升趋势 into a new up trend
仅仅是这一点 and again just on that alone
风险肯定会增加 risk is definitely elevated
而且没有参与 also there's really no participation
我应该说是参与的增加 I should say an increase in participation
从我们所在的地方 from where we were
几个星期前，甚至一个月前 several weeks ago or even a month ago
纳兹达克80%的个股 with 80% of individual stocks in the nazdack
仍然低于200日移动均线 still below their 200 day moving average
所以我们希望看到更好的参与 so we'd like to see some better participation
就这一点而言 as far as that's concerned
如果你还记得我说过的 if you remember I talked about
回顾过去的一些熊市，一些先例 looking at some past bear market some precedents
和这个相比 and comparing this to maybe
1998年 in 1998
我们确实经历过周期性熊市 cyclical bear market where we did have
下面几条腿 a couple legs down
然后反弹到200天 and then had a pretty strong rally back to the 200 day
然后又掉下去了 only to then go back down
打破那些低谷 and undercut those lows
真正制造恐惧和恐慌的底部 and really create that fear and panic bottom
那是投降的迹象 that is indicative of a capitulation
然后我们就可以从那里起飞了 and then we're able to take off from there
这个特别的 that particular
在上涨20%之前，该股曾下跌27% correction came off 27% before it rally 20%
这很有说服力 which was very convincing
我记得很清楚 I remember it well
然后又滑过了几个星期 and then slid over a number of just a couple weeks
还有23%，使股价从高点下跌33% another 23% which put it down 33% off the highs
然后能扯得更高 and then was able to rip higher
然后我们有很多 and then we got a lot of
设置在右边 setups coming up that right side
就股票而言 as far as stocks were concerned
所以我认为 so I think with
我们又回到了200天附近 with us rallying back near the 200 day
类似的场景 a similar type scenario
也许也许就在等着我们 might be might be in store for us
甚至可能比低点还低 maybe not even undercut the lows
也许只需要倒回去填满 maybe just back and fill
但肯定 but certainly
需要一段时间才能形成可靠的底部 taking some time here to form a reliable bottom
问题之一是我们刚刚 one of the problems here is that we just got
上周我讲过，我们可能会看到 and I talked about this last week that we might see
长期趋势模型的退化程度更大 the long term trend model degrade even more
上周我们从100%涨到了75% last week we went from 100% to 75 %
这意味着我们失去了一个组件 which meant that we lost one of the components
现在是50% and now it's moved to 50 %
我们失去了另一个组件 we lost another component
因为我们的bi信号在2020年4月才出现 since our bi signal only back in April of 2020
我们在标准普尔上涨了百分之五十二三 we're up about fifty two fifty three percent in the s p
500加上这个 500 so with this going to
中性的50%我肯定会说 the neutral reading of 50% I would say definitely
你应该 you should be
从桌上拿走一些薯片 taking some chips off the table
也许在你的长期账户中，比如1千4元 maybe in your longer term accounts like your 4 on 1 k
然后当然 and then of course
我们可能会有机会把它加回去 we'll probably have an opportunity to add that back
我想说你很快就知道了 I'd say you know in pretty short order
大概是今年的某个时候吧 probably with you know sometime this year or so
但如果你真的想小心点 but if you want to really be cautious here
保护你已经积累的收益 protect the gains that you've accumulated
我想至少有一半 I think taking at least half of the
现在已经没有筹码了 chips off the table at this point
考虑到我们已经有了风险模型 makes sense considering that we've got the risk model
Stem模型现在我们有了长期趋势模型 stem model now we've got the long term trend model
这里的一切都很恶化 everything's deteriorating here
市场分销 distribution in the market
你知道现在是时候小心了 you know it's it's time to be cautious
现在来看看纳扎克 now taking a look here at the nazdak
我想指出一些事情 a few things I want to point out
如果你看这里 and that is if you take a look right here
我们有六天 we had a six day
第6天贯穿一整天 a day six follow through day
这就是改进的地方 and that was what improved
风险模型的一般市场成分 the general market component of the risk model
当然，没有足够的双信号 not enough of course to go on a bi signal
但已经开始朝着正确的方向发展了 but starting to move in the right direction
从这一点 from that point
我们想看看 we want to look at
接下来几天到几周会发生什么 what happens in the next couple days to a couple weeks
最初的几天真的很重要 the first few days are really important
如果你有你知道在前两三天 if you have you know within the first two three days
这是一个很糟糕的信号 you get distribution that's a really bad sign
在最初的一两周 in the first week or two
它仍然是一个匿名的标志，它扼杀了集会 it's still an anonymous sign and it kills the rally
通常80%的情况下，它发生得非常快 usually about 80% of the time it happens really quick
90%的几率都是这样 it's more like 90% of the time
所以我们 so we've
得到了一个职位分配 got a post distribution
跟进当天的分发情况 post follow through day distribution
在这里的第八天和第九天 on the eighth and ninth day here
实际上是连续两天 two days in a row actually
随着交易量一天比一天增加 with the volume increasing day over day
这绝对 so that definitely
这又让我们陷入了 again puts us in a situation where
我们想要谨慎行事 we want to go right to being cautious
如果你开始 if you're starting to
变得更加乐观 turn more bullish
因为市场每天都有一份文件 because the market got a file through day and
很少有股票出现突破 few stocks were breaking out
这绝对是警告射击 this is definitely a warning shot across the bow
另一个 the other
需要注意的是，如果你还记得我们 thing to look at is that if you remember when we
那份文件看了一天了 had that file through day
我们成功了 and we came off for that first low
我们有这样的逆转 we had that reversal
看跌期权成交量已经上升 the put volume had moved up
相当不错，至少正在接近 considerably and was getting to at least
相对乐观的水平 relatively bullish levels
你知道我看到了比这更高的水平 you know I see much higher levels than this
一点六一点七 one point six one point seven
但这是第一次 but this is the first
我们想看到它移动到的高度 level that we want to see it move to
你在哪里至少你知道吧 is where you're having you know at least
买入量和呼出量一样多 as much put volume as call volume
现在我们又搬回来了 and now we've moved back here
我们没有看到很多看跌情绪 and we don't see a lot of bearishness
看房买家的行为 the action of put buyers
所以我想再次看到它出现 so again I would want to see that turn up
也许能让你消停一下 maybe take out these highs
甚至市场也可能会跌破低点 maybe even the market undercut the lows
这确实让市场有些担忧 and really get some fear in the market here
至少从市场的行动来看 as far as at least from the actions of the market
向我们展示我们可以也许可以投降 to show us that we could maybe can have a capitulation
恐慌情绪低落 and a panic low put in
让我来回顾一下我认为是 let me go over a few points here that I think are
研究催化剂和发生的事情很重要 important to look at for catalyst and what's happening
有了市场就看你会不会 with the market is looking at if you will
紧随其后 on the heels of this
Cpi报告，当然 cpi report that we just had which of course
通货膨胀是否相当严重 was some pretty hefty inflation
每年大约7.5% of about seven and a half percent year over a year
这是自那以后我们看到的最高的通货膨胀 this is the highest inflation that we've seen since
1982年通货膨胀率同比增长6% 1982 cor inflation was up 6% year over year
所以 so
尽管我们有很多 even though we've got a lot of
有很多人预测我们会这么做 there's a lot of people predicting that we're going to
通货膨胀将趋于缓和 moderate this inflation is going to moderate
至少在近期内是这样 in the near term or at least
在不远的将来 in the in the not so distant future
联邦储备银行总裁布拉德 fed president bullard
他说他希望贝斯手得分能达到100分 said that he'd like to see 100 bassist points
他在7月1日就宣布破产 he called it in the bag by July first
在接受彭博社采访时 and in an interview with bloomberg
这是在周四 this was on Thursday
他说他的车停了下来 he said that he's pulled up dramatically
他认为委员会应该做什么呢 what he thought the committee should be doing as far as
随着利率的提高意味着 with rate increase is meaning that
它应该更积极一些 it should be more aggressive
一些人戏剧性地接受了这个词 some took that word dramatically
作为一个建议，50分 as a suggestion that a 50 point
3月份可能会出现加息 increase in March could occur
并在5月或6月举行了随后的会议 and certainly had subsequent meetings in may or June
他也说过 so he also said that
联邦政府应该考虑 the feds should consider
中间利率上调 intermedi intermeding rate hikes
所以还是有一些非常非常鹰派的语言 so again some very very hawkish language coming from
联邦储备银行总裁布拉德 fed president bullard
当然还有其他成员 other members of course
fomc成员不同意布拉德的观点 of the fomc did not agree with bullard
所以有 so there is there is
很可能你看不到 the likelihood is probably that you won't see
这些类型的增长 those types of increases
从 right out of the
当联邦政府开始提高利率的时候 gate here when the feds starts increasing rates
许多分析师认为通胀数据会有所改善 and many analysts see better inflation readings
就像我说的，在第n年 like I said by year n
但我们肯定会看到 but certainly we're going to see
我们将看到近期工资租金的通胀 we're going to see the near term inflation wages rents
所以大宗商品 commodities so
如果通胀像许多人预测的那样回落 if inflation subsides as many are predicting
将会有 there will be
美联储当然没有必要制造经济衰退 no need for the fed to certainly the engineer recession
现在这个修正 and this correction right now
将被证明是一次周期性调整吗 will prove to be a cyclical correction
在持续的牛市中 within an ongoing bull market
这就带来了买入的机会 resulting in a buying opportunity
所以这是一个关于64000的大问题 so that sort of the big 64 000 question here is
我们知道利率在上升 we know rates are going up
但如何积极 but how aggressively
这里的通货膨胀失控程度有多高 how much is inflation out of control here
美联储真的有一定程度的控制吗 is the fed actually have a degree of control
他们会失去对经济的控制吗 are they going to lose control of the economy here
通货膨胀将会 and inflation is going to
失去控制 get out of control
我是说已经这样了 which I mean it's already
在某些方面失控了 out of control in some respects
但 but
他们一定要这么做吗 are they gonna have to
策划一场可能导致长期衰退的衰退 engineer a recession which could cause a secular
我认为现在是熊市 bear market right now I think
看起来这是一次周期性修正 it looks like this is a cyclical correction
但我肯定不会这么做 but I certainly am not going to
把我的钱押在一个猜测上，当我们看 put my money up on a guess when we look at the
就会发生的情况而言，加息 rate hikes as far as what happens
当你开始加息的时候 when you start getting these rate hikes
因为不管你信不信 because believe it or not
的恐惧 the fear
第一次加息通常会引起调整 of a first rate hike usually causes a correction
比实际的加息幅度还大 more than the actual rate hike
唯一的 the only
如果我们观察不同的时期等等 and if we look at different time periods and so forth
其中一件事 one of the things
其中一个需要注意的是速度 one of the caveats is the speed
的侵略性 of the aggressiveness of the
的比率增加 of the the rate increases
当你有一个恶性循环时 and when you have an aggressive cycle
利率变动非常快的地方 where rates are moved very quickly
这条红线就是这条橙色的线 as in this red line is depicting this orange line here
这就是目标 that's basically the mark
市场后续做什么 what the market does subsequent
在接下来的一两年 over the next year or two
这原因 and that causes
市场上出现了一些负面动作 some negative action in the market
在接下来的一两年里会有负回报 and negative returns over the next year or two
这就是为什么它很重要 so again that's why it's important to see
什么类型的行动 what type of action
发生在这里，或者是从美联储出来的 happens or comes out of the fed here
当然我们会密切关注 and we'll be watching that closely of course
当然还有市场 but of course the market
我们会在市场上看到 we'll see this come up show up in the market
我的意思是，我们将在股票中看到它 I mean we're going to see it in the stocks
我们要用这种方式继续下去 we're going to pick this up way
之前我们不得不担心 before we have to worry about
预测整体经济的基本面 predicting fundamentals in the overall economy which
哪些是最好的巧合 which are at best coincidence
当你看到我们正在做的小组 when you take a look at the groups that we're doing
差不多是一样的 well pretty much the same
更明显的原因是 but even more pronounced because on
周五的最佳区域是 Friday the absolute best areas were
当然都是石油和煤炭 all oil and coal of course
这恰好是我 and that happens to be where I
我的注意力当然集中在哪里 where of course I'm concentrated in
和我们大多数人的名字 with most of the names that we have
在石油和煤炭领域张开双臂 open arm in oil and coal
你可以看到一大堆的石油名称 you can see a whole bunch of oil names
主导,前 dominating that top
但我有前12名 butI have the top 12
我只是在这里展示一些交通工具 I'm just showing here with some transportation
农业化学物质 chemicals agriculture
化肥库存表现良好 fertilizer stocks were acting well
但是我们再看看这些 but again we're looking at you know these are
这些都是周期性的 these are cyclical
通胀敏感的群体 inflation sensitive groups
只是不是我们想看到的最佳区域 just not the best area that we want to see
我知道我们有很多问题 I know we've had questions
这些类型的集团能否引领市场 if these type of groups could leadable market
如果你回到20世纪70年代 and the answer is if you go back to the 1970s
是的，在某些时期是可以的 yes in certain periods they can
看到通货膨胀并不是问题 and seeing as inflation hasn't been a problem for
几十年来，我们没有看到这类组织领先 decades and we haven't seen these type of groups lead
这当然是一种可能，这就是为什么 it's certainly a possibility and that's why
我把这些股票拿去当灰 I put these stocks out as bice
如果他们从基地出来，他们的行为是正确的 if they're coming out of bases and they're acting right
你知道你应该和他们在一起 you know you should be sticking with them
但是总体市场有很多数据 but again with the overall market with so many readings
展示给我们看，而且参与如此之少 showing us and also with so little participation
我们当然希望在整体上过于激进 we certainly want to get too aggressive with overall
这一点很有趣 exposure at this point interesting
咖啡 coffee
从上周的一次完美的VCP中你可以看到 came out of a perfect vcp last week and you can see
这些原则就像我经常告诉你们的 again these principles like I always tell you guys
这些原则是永恒的 these principles are timeless
这并不重要 it doesn't matter what the
潜在的证券是或无论它被拍卖 underlying security is or whatever it is being auction
这是 this is
这些都是拍卖市场的足迹 these are the footprints of an auction marketplace
这是供给和需求的足迹 these are the footprints of supply and demand
所以你从一个非常好的 so you came out of a really nice
在完美的DCP中形成大的基底 well formed large base in a perfect dcp
如果这是一只股票，你知道你会在这上面 if this was a stock you know you'd be all over this
这是一张有趣的图表 right so again just that was an interesting chart
利率也 also interest rates
上升到这里 are moving up here
两年的进度非常快 the two year is moving up very rapidly
所以我们应该看到短期利率 so we should see short term rates
在你的货币市场等等 in your money markets and so forth
可能在未来几周或几个月 probably in the coming weeks and months
你会开始看到你的钱 you'll start to see your money
市场及储蓄帐户 markets and savings accounts
开始增加 start to increase
从0.5%到0.6和0.7 and going from maybe a half a % to 0.6 and 0.7
并以接近1%的方式发展 and working its way probably up to close to the 1%
在不远的将来 in a not so distant future
我之前说过的10年 the 10 year as I pointed out
在过去的几个月里 over the last I don't know several months
我说过当我们达到2%的水平 I said when we get to that 2% level if we
他们应该突破这个2%吗 should break out and hit that 2% they'll probably
让市场有点不安 unnerved the market a bit
当然 certainly
如果我们的收入真的超过了这个数字 if we start really running up much above that
我认为这就是事实 and that's I think exactly what happened
当然也有一些逆流 of course there's been a number of cross currents
发生过 that have happened
差不多是同时发生的 sort of all around the same time
所以我不确定你知道 so I'm not sure you know
究竟是什么催化剂在市场上起了什么作用 exactly what catalyst is doing what here in the market
但我们肯定会达到2%的目标 but certainly we hit the 2% mark andthem
此时市场 right at that point the market
开始有点行动了 started to act a little bit
我们得到了分布 we got the distribution
正如我前几周提到的市场 now as I pointed out in previous weeksyou the market
可以去了 can go up
当联邦基金利率上升时 when rates are going up on the fed funds rate
我们很快就会看到 as we're going to see coming soon here
所以可能会出现周期性修正 so what might happen is you get a cyclical correction
创造了一个机会 creates an opportunity
市场随着经济的发展而上涨 the market moves up with the economy
改善和利率上升 improving and with rates moving up
当然，在这之后还有顶部 and then you of course you have that top after this
但是有一些利率上升 but a number of rate increases
也许 and maybe
它使经济放缓到一个点 it slows the economy down to a point where
你陷入了经济衰退 you roll into a recession
我们还有股息收益率 we still have the dividend yield
与短期国债相比 versus the t bills
目前股市的回报率更高 stocks are paying a better rate at this point
收益率曲线 and the yield curve
当你看各种收益率曲线时 when you look at the various yield curves
但是这三个月 but the three month
或者你可以看看2的10次方 or you can look at the two to the 10
不是倒 is not inverted
这几乎每次都会发生 and that's almost occurs almost every time
之前我们有一个世俗 before we have a secular
熊市已经不远了 bear market and we're not too far away
我们又不是要走很远的路 it's not like we have a long distance to go
所以这可能在短期内发生 so this could happen in short order
所以我认为 so I think
密切关注收益率曲线很重要 it's important to keep an eye on the yield curve
如果你担心长期熊市 if you're worried about a secular bear market
现在 now
我展示了很多先例 I showed a bunch of precedents and and
你知道这件事可能会以多种方式进行 you know this could play out in a number of ways
我们是否有 whether we have
另一条腿了 another leg down
或者我们是否后退，填补和移动 or whether we back and fill and move sideways
要记住的关键是 the key just to keep in mind is that
比如2010年，比如2011年 like 2010 like 2011
比如2011年之后的2012年 like 2012 which was right after 2011
从2011年开始，我们并没有走多远 where we didn't go very far from 2011
不得不经历另一次整合 and had to go through another consolidation 19,018 the
的东西 the thing that
记住，触底是一个过程 remembering the theme is that bottoming is a process
在这个过程中，你要非常 and during that process is where you want to be very
非常了解正在发生的事情 very tuned to what's going on
然后逐点寻找，因为你可以得到 and be looking for those by points because you can get
你可能会有很多买家 you might get a bunch of buys that happen
廉价的 off of a cheap
走出市场的低谷 off the low of the market
你可能需要一段时间 you might take a while
需要形成一个长碱 and you have a long base that has to form
这里是2008年 and right over here we had in 2008
很漂亮的设置，这是一只股票 beautiful setup and this was a stock
完美的VCP绝对完美 it's absolutely perfect with a perfect vcp
难怪结果会很漂亮，而且确实如此 it's no wonder it came out beautifully and it was
这是最容易的美元环境之一 this was one of the easiest dollar environments
我见过的 I've seen in decades
它形成了一个完美的形状 and it came out of a perfectly formed
你在哪里有过真正的 where you had a real
要花很长时间才能清除所有的供应 long time to be able to weed out all that supply
相同的 same exact
我们将应用于股票的方法或哲学 approach or philosophy that we would apply to a stock
所以这段时间 so along this time
你要非常非常 you want to be very very
调优在非常 tuning in very
非常接近于个股的表现 very closely to how the individual stocks are acting
现在不是度假的时候 this isn't a time for a vacation
现在是时候了 this is the time to be
最接近市场的曲调 most closely a tune to the market
寻找新的领袖 and be looking for those new leaders
所以我不知道要花多长时间 so I don't know how long it's going to take
在市场中出现底部 for a bottom to occur in the market
但我向你保证 but I assure you one
会有一个底部 will make a bottom
你将会建立股票购买 and you will have stock buys that will set up
你也会有一段时间赚得轻松 and you will have periods of easy dollar
现在我们还没到那种地步 right now we are not in that situation
模型仍然是负面的 models are still negative
我们刚刚得到了分配 we just got distribution
所以这完全否定了最近的文件 so that really negated the recent file through day
你有一个非常挑剔的市场，只有 you've got a very selective market with only
与两者相关联的组 with groups that are associated with either
熊市或 bear markets or
非增长领域，也就是周期性领域 non growth areas if you will the cyclical areas
但这只是市场的一小部分 but it's a narrow cross section of the market
不过我们的出售量不足 we're lacking in the put volume although
我认识通讯撰稿人，还有 I know the newsletter writers and the
调查显示悲观情绪，但我们希望看到 the surveys are showing bearishness but we want to see
不仅仅是他们所说的 not only what they're saying
但我们想看看他们在做什么 but we want to see what they're doing
看空 get bearish
还有一件事我忘了指出 and again here's another thing I forgot to point out
当你有 when you have
一个环境 an environment
利率环境看涨 an interest rate environment that is bullish
你需要少些粗俗的感情来装底 you need less barish sentiments to put in a bottom
但是当你遇到麻烦的时候当你 but when you have a barishsituation when you have
一个负利率环境 an interest rate environment that is negative
或者向那个方向移动 or moving in that direction
你需要更公正的感情 you need more fair sentiment
那么过去可能达到什么水平 so what levels might in the past
哦，那是底部出现的地方 oh that's where bottoms occurred
我们必须把它联系起来看 we have to look at it in relation
利率环境 to the interest rate environment
这就是 this is something that
戴维斯想出了一个 davis has come up with a
确定它的方法是用他们所谓的 way to determine this by using what they call
动态的括号 dynamic brackets
所以它只是改变了能级 so it just simply shifts the levels
从情绪读数来看，什么是看涨的 on the sentiment readings to what would be bullish
基于一些基础利率指标 based on some underlying interest rate indicators
现在这些都在下降 and right now those are shifting down
哪里需要更多的看跌 where we're going to need more bearishness
波动性也在增加 volatility also is picking up
我们又开始好转了 we're starting to pick up again
vix指数在哪里接近30 where we went up to close to that 30 level on the vix
但是然后我们离开了，但是现在 but and then we came off but now
波动性开始回升 volatility starting to pick up
果然 and sure enough
你知道 you know
俄罗斯和乌克兰的局势正在这里发生 we have the Russian Ukraine situation taken place here
我和那里的人聊过 which I've spoken to people from
全世界的俄罗斯人，乌克兰人 all over the world people in Russia in Ukraine
我妻子是俄罗斯乌克兰人 my wife is Russian Ukrainian
我的岳母现在和我在一起 my mother in law is here with me right now
她是俄罗斯乌克兰人 and she's Russian Ukrainian
有不同的意见 there's the opinions differ widely
我认识很多人 I know a lot of people
认为这不会发生 think that this is not going to happen
但紧张 but the tension
对它的累积肯定造成了 building up to it is certainly causing
市场风险和如果 risk in the market and if
俄罗斯确实会进入乌克兰 Russia does move into Ukraine there will be
市场的负面反应 a reaction in the market negatively
我认为如果这真的发生了 very swiftly and I think that if that does happen
只要美国不回应 as long as the us doesn't respond
和俄国直接进入一个病房 and get into a ward directly with Russia
你可能会制造恐慌情绪 you probably create a panic low
但现在现金才是王道 but right now cash is king
这是非常复杂的 it's a very complex
混合的东西 mix of things
这就是现在市场上正在发生的事情 that are happening in the market right now
我认为你必须这样做 and I think that you just have to
要知道保持高水平的现金储备 know keep a high level of cash
如果你要在这个市场交易，要非常灵活 be very nimble if you're going to trade in this market
苹果 the apple
贸易就是一个很好的例子 trade is a perfect example of how I want to approach
这个市场 this market
该股止跌，但跌幅不到2% that stopped out but lost less than 2%
我想把我想写的东西写得很紧 I want to be real tight with my entries I want to
如果我要去更大的地方 if I'm going to have lot bigger stops
我当然想要 I certainly want to have
我只是 low exposure I just
我想要 I want to make
我确信我不会有这种类型的市场 sure that I'm not going to have this type of market
活吃我吧，用停止或任何方式 eat me alive either with stops or in any way
因为当我们最终得到底部的时候 because when finally we get a bottom here
我们有一些非常棒的设置 and we get some really great setups
事情正在认真地发展 and things are moving in earnest
我想要他们所有的现金都完好无损 I want to have them by the all the cash intact
能够合成它 be able to compound it
而不是从坑里挖出来 and not be digging out of a hole
这就是关键所在 and that's the key to
获得高额回报 making the big returns
始终如一，并在一段时间内做得很好 being consistent and doing well over time
是将负面影响最小化吗 is to minimize that downside
所以现在不要担心好的一面 so right now don't worry about the upside
不要太在意在市场上的投机行为 don't be so concerned about jumping on the market
害怕你会错过很多时间 being afraid you're gonna miss out if plenty of time
关键是要做好准备 the key is to keep your powder dry
继续关注，准备行动 and to stay tuned and be ready to act
当情况没有变得咄咄逼人的时候 when conditions weren't getting aggressive
好吧，我要去做另一个视频了 alright I'm gonna go work on that other video
我得再做些检查 I gotta do some more screening here
得到了 get that out
在这个视频之后不久 shortly after this video
这两个视频都将在今天的周六播放 and you'll have both of those videos today on Saturday
好了，回头再聊，再见 all right talk to you guys later bye bye