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每个星期一 我都会在一周的开盘价处画一条线 因为它会成为整个一周的潜在支撑和阻力 Every Monday I snap a line to the open of the week because it becomes potential support and resistance throughout the entire week.
嗯 你有本周的开盘价 或者上周的最低价 然后是上周的最高价 Well you have the open of the week or the low of last week and then the high of last week.
然后我们就到了四月底 那条线是四月中旬 And then we are getting late in the month of April and that line is the midpoint of April.
您可以在月度图表上看到 我们正处于月中左右 And you can see on the monthly chart we are around the middle of the month.
如果一个月内 任何一根K线没有收于其最低点或最高点附近 它通常会试图收于其中间点附近 If a month if any bar is not going to close near its low or near its high it often will try to close near its middle.
而且我们不太可能以本月的最低点收盘 And it is unlikely that we are going to close at the low of the month.
我们不太可能以本月的最高价收盘 It is unlikely that we are going to close at the high of the month.
因此 我们可能会在月中左右结束交易 And therefore we may end up closing around the middle of the month.
您可以看到我们一直在摇摆不定 现在是月中 And you can see we have been oscillating around here is the middle of the month.
我们已经在这个月中旬左右摇摆了几个星期了 We have been oscillating around the middle of the month now for a couple of weeks.
因此看起来市场可能会关注它并试图在月底收于该水平附近 So it looks like the market may pay attention to it and try to close near there at the end of the month.
有时会在月中或K线的中间 Sometimes it will be around the middle of the month or the middle of a bar.
然后就在最后 它突然下跌并收于低点 或者突然上涨并收于高点 And then at the end it suddenly goes down and closes at the low or it suddenly goes up and closes at the high.
我们缺口很大 远低于平均价格 We have a big gap down. We are far below the average price.
蓝线是 20 条指数移动平均线 The blue line is the 20 bar exponential moving average.
虚线就是这条线 这是60分钟图 The dotted line is this line. This is the 60 minute chart.
这是 20 条指数移动平均线 This is the 20 bar exponential moving average.
这条虚线就是平均值 但每五分钟更新一次 And this dotted line is that average but updated every five minutes.
这就是为什么它有那么多上下的小动作 That is why it has so many little moves up and down.
当市场价格远低于平均价格时 大多数交易者都不愿意出售 除非金条的价格远低于平均水平 When the market is far below an average price most traders do not want to sell unless the bars are much more bearish than average.
因此 如果我们开始在这里购买保险杠 没有人愿意以远低于平均价格的价格出售保险杠 So if we start to get bull bars here nobody wants to sell far below the average price if they are selling bull bars.
另一方面 如果你在这里确实得到了多头条 交易者就会买入 押注市场将试图回到平均价格 On the other hand if you do get bull bars here traders will buy betting that the market will try to get back to the average price.
现在 显然 有时市场会出现大幅下跌 并将继续下跌进入大空头趋势 Now obviously sometimes the market will have a big gap down and it will keep going down into a big bear trend.
因此 尽管您必须犹豫是否以远低于平均价格的价格出售 但如果市场继续下跌 您就必须做空 So even though you have to be hesitant to sell far below the average price if the market is continuing to go down you have to get short.
我的一般规则是 如果我要以远低于平均价格的价格做空 And my general rule is if I am going to be shorting far below the average price
我希望看到至少两个连续的空头K线 其实体尺寸相当大 并且收盘价接近低点 I want to see at least a couple consecutive bear bars with pretty good sized bodies and closing near the lows.
所以 我会等几根……我们现在远低于移动平均线 我会等几根 So here I would wait for a couple... we are far below the moving average. I wo
大的空头线收盘价接近低点 然后做空 uld wait for a couple big bear bars closing near the lows and then short.
但是 如果出现大幅上涨 并且出现一根大空头K线收盘于低点附近 会有人买吗 不会 But if you have a big gap up and you get a big bear bar closing near as low is anybody going to buy that No.
因此 只要出现单个空头收盘价接近最低价 远高于平均价的情况 交易者就会按市价卖出 So as soon as you get a single bear bar closing near as low far above the average price traders will sell at the market.
你可以看到 这根K线状线的开盘价低于那根K线状线的收盘价 You can see the open of this bar is below the close of that bar. As soon as that f
第一根K线状线一收盘 大家都开始做空 irst bar closed everybody shorted.
如果你要以远高于平均价格的价格购买 这里有连续的多头条 但主体很小 And if you are going to be buying far above the average price here we have consecutive bull bars but the bodies are small.
所以这不会吸引太多买盘 这并没有远高于平均水平的看涨行 So that is not going to attract a lot of buying. It is not far above average bullis
为 所以人们不愿意支付远高于平均水平的价格 h behavior so people do not want to pay a far above average price.
和这个一样 大多数交易员……有些交易员会因为双顶之后的双底而买入 Same with this. Most traders... some traders would buy above that because of the double bottom after the double top.
在连续第二根多头线出现后 更多的交易者会有兴趣买入 特别 More traders would be interested in buying after a second consecutive bull bar
是当多头线实体较大且收盘价接近最高价时 especially if it has a big body and closes near its high.
但即使是那次反弹也失败了 中度向下跳空 一根横盘整理 移 But even that rally failed. Medium sized gap down one went sideways we h
动平均线形成双顶 然后交易员开始抛售 ad a double top at the moving average and then traders started to sell.
我们经历过很多大的缺口 连续的大空头收盘价接近其低点 好吧 连续的大空头 We have had a lot of big gaps. Consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows. Well consecutive big bear bars.
这只股票的尾部相当明显 你可以看到买入的交易者比卖出的交易者多 这就是因为有这个尾部 This one had a fairly prominent tail. You can see more traders bought it than sold it and that is because of that tail.
而那些想要买入的多头 大多数不会高于这个价位买入 但他们 And the bulls looking to buy most would not buy above that. But they would b
会高于这个价位买入 这就形成了一个微型双底 先跌后涨 再跌后涨 uy above this. You have a micro double bottom down and up down and up.
一根大阳线收盘于高点附近 他们也会在第二根阳线上方买入 A big bull bar closing near its high. They would also buy above a second bull
他们也会在反弹停滞的当日高点上方买入 bar. They would also buy above the high of the day with that rally stall.
然后 我们出现了一根大空头K线 收盘价接近低点 很多交易员 And then we had a big bear bar closing near its low. A lot of traders would sell t
都会卖出 它们的价格较低 高点略有上升 形成微型双顶 hat. They were lower high micro double top.
有些交易者会在价格跌破颈线后立即止损卖出 而另一些交易者则会等待出现几根空头线后再卖出 Some traders would sell on the stop at one take below the neckline. Others would wait for a couple bear bars to sell.
好吧 现在卖出有两个问题 一是 这只是一根空头指标 远低于平均价格 Okay there are two problems with this with selling here. One is it is only a single bear bar far below the average price.
这会减少愿意卖出的交易者数量 另一个原因是 它的下方有一 That will reduce the number of traders willing to sell. And the other is it has a f
个相当明显的尾部 这会减少下方卖出的交易者数量 airly prominent tail below. That will reduce the number of traders selling below.
此外 它跌破了上周的低点 但收盘价并未低于上周的低点 也没有远低于上周的低点 Also it broke below last week's low but did not close below last week's low and did not close far below last week's low.
所以这降低了这根线成为大空头开始的可能性 如果情况发生 So that reduces the chances of this being the start of the big bear trading. If th
变化 如果第二根线（K线状线2）收盘接近低点 那么交易员就会开始抛售 at could change if two bar two becomes a big bear bar closing near its low you will get traders starting to sell.
现在 情况是这样的 这是 GoBex 交易时段的最低价 这是最高 Now what's going on here is this. That's the lowest price of the gobex session.
价 90% 的日子都脱离了 GoBex 交易时段 That's the highest price. 90% of days break out of the gobex session.
在这里 我们跌破了 Gobex 的低点 并反转上涨 在 Gobex 的 Here we broke below the gobex low and reversed up. We've been in a bear
整个交易日中 我们一直处于空头通道中 channel throughout the gobex session.
我们的高点越来越低 低点也越来越低 所以我们处于空头通道中 We have lower highs lower lows. So we're in a bear friend.
很有可能 我们会跌破 Gobex 的低点 现在 每当我看到空头通道 我总会特别关注一件事 Chances are we're going to go below the gobex low. Now whenever I see a bear channel I always look at one thing in particular.
我们突破了新低 如果有人在那个低点买入 然后继续买入 价 We broke through a new low. If somebody bought that low and bought more five
格再低五个点 他们能赚钱吗 市场有没有突破那个低点 确实如此 points lower would they have made money Did the market go above that low It did.
因此 限价单多头 即以限价单在低位买入的多头 特别是如果他在更低价格买入更多 他就能赚钱 So a limit order bull a bull buying with a limit order at that low especially if he bought more lower he made money.
现在 如果交易员在这个低点的价位买入 他早就成交了 他可 Now this low if a trader bought at that low he would have been filled here.
以继续买入 价格再低5个点 10个点 反弹有没有回到这个低点上方 是的 He could buy more five ten points lower. Did the rally go back above that low Yes.
所以 限价单多头在这里买入 然后价格更低 从而获利 限价单 So a limit order bull buying here and lower made money. A limit order bull buying
多头突破了那个低点 在这里成交 他可以买入更多 价格低五点或十点 the breakout of that low got filled over here. He could buy more five or ten points lower.
市场反弹回低点了吗 是的 他赚了钱 这里也一样 所以我们处 Did the market rally back below that low Yes he made money. So same with
于空头趋势 但限价单多头正在赚钱 here. So we're in a bear trend but limit order bulls are making money.
如果趋势强劲 这种情况就不应该发生 所以 这增加了我们不会大幅下跌的可能性 That should not be happening if the trend is strong. So it increases the chances that we're not going to go a lot lower.
如果我们处于空头趋势中 而多头正在赚钱 那么这不是一个非常强劲的空头趋势 If we were in a bear trend and bulls are making money it's not a very strong bear trend.
另外 正如我所说 在月度图表上 我们处于...... Also as I said on the monthly chart we are in a...
让我把它放回 15 分钟 Let me put that back for 15 minutes.
月线图上 它仅次于大空头K线 但四月即将结束 或者目前在中间位置 目前它正处于突破点附近 Monthly chart it's second to big bear bars but April is closing or it's currently around the middle. It's currently around this breakout point.
它的下方有一个很大的尾巴 我们看到了一次非常强劲的多头 And it has a big tail below. We have a very strong bull breakout good follow
突破 随后出现了良好的后续走势 但随后出现了一个非常大的反转 through but then a very big reversal.
如果你仔细想想 就会产生困惑 买入这只股票的多头认为市场会继续上涨 And if you think about that that creates confusion. The bulls who bought this believe the market was going higher
或者他们认为 如果我们出现大规模抛售 市场将进入交易区间并回升 or they believe that if we get a big sell off the market would enter a trading range and get back up here.
因此 即使他们以最糟糕的价格买入 他们也相信这个价格非常 So even if they bought the worst price up here they were confident that this is s
强劲 市场不太可能直接进入空头趋势 o strong it was unlikely the market would go into a bear trend.
更有可能的是 如果它下跌 它会进入一个交易区间 如果它处于交易区间 它就会回升 More likely that if it went down it would enter a trading range. And if it was in a trading range it would come back up.
因此他们在这里买入 相信市场会恢复 让他们不会蒙受损失 So they buy here confident that the market will get back there and let them out without a loss.
因此多头希望这只是澳大利亚股市的一次大幅回调 And so the bulls are hoping that this is just a deep pullback from Australia.
我们突破了这个点 这是一个强劲的突破 我们突破了这个点 然后跌破了两个突破点 We broke above this and here's a strong breakout. We broke above this and we've dipped below both breakout points.
在这里 我说我认为市场将跌破那个高点并跌破这个高点 Over here I said that I thought the market would dip below that high and below this high.
当你有两个突破点 而第二个突破点较低时 你就有一个强劲的 When you have two breakout points and the second one is lower you have a s
突破 市场通常会回落至第二个突破点的高点以下 trong breakout the market usually dips back below the high of the second one.
你可以看到当价格跌破该价位时发生了什么 买家出现了 很多交易员预计价格会跌破该价位 And you can see what happened when it did dip below it. There were buyers. A lot of traders expected it to get below that price.
因此 卖出的空头会在此价格买回他们的空头头寸 多头知道空 So the bears who sold bought back their shorts here. The bulls knew bears wou
头会以这个价格买回他们的空头头寸 ld buy back their shorts at that price.
如果你是多头 你会怎么做 你会在那里买入 结果我们得到了反转 So what do you do if you're a bull You buy there. And the result was we got the reversal.
不管怎样 我想说的是 当出现大幅上涨和大幅下跌时 就会造成很大的混乱 Anyway what I'm saying is when you have a big move up and a big move down it creates big confusion.
混乱通常会导致交易区间波动 交易区间可能只有两三根这样的K线 And confusion usually results in a trading range. The trading range could be just two or three bars like this.
我们有三条横线 可能像这样 可能持续一年多 也可能持续很多年 We have three sideways bars. It could be like this. It could be over a year. It could be many years.
看看这里 回到2000年代 我们横盘了10年 上下波动很大 但横盘了10多年 Look at here. Back in the 2000s we were sideways for 10 years. Big moves up and down but sideways for over 10 years.
我认为市场目前就是如此 我认为市场将在未来10年内保持横盘整理 I think this is what the market is doing. I think we're going to be sideways for 10 years.
我们可能会在楔形顶部再买入一只新股 所以 一次回调 两次回调 三次回调 We might get one more new buy to a wedge top. So one pullback two pullback three.
但此次回调幅度如此之大 以至于它实际上不再具有楔形 But this pullback is so deep that it really no longer has a wedge shape.
因此 如果我在那里画一条线并在这里创建一个平行线 那么它就在平行通道的底部 So if I draw a line there and create a parallel here this is at the bottom of the parallel channel.
这不再是楔形了 如果我们从这里反弹 我们可能会回到这里 That's no longer a wedge shape. If we rally from here we might get back up here.
我们可能会稍微提高一点 但目前来看 至少在一年内不太可能大幅提高 We may go a little bit higher but at the moment it's unlikely we're going a lot higher for at least a year.
所以对我来说 问题在于 我们是否已经开始了空头趋势 嗯 可能还没有 So to me the issue is have we begun a bear trend Well probably not.
我不认为多头趋势会恢复 我认为我们不会走得太远 I don't think the bull trend is going to resume. I don't think we're going to go far above that.
那么还剩下什么 交易区间 所以我认为涨幅很大 跌幅很大 混乱很大 So what's left A trading range. So I think big up big down big confusion.
多头希望这只是一次深度回调 空头则希望这是一次突破 任何 The bulls are hoping this is just a deep pullback. The bears are hoping it's
反弹都会形成一个更低的高点 然后形成一个下跌通道 a breakout and any rally will form a lower high and then we'll get a channel down.
因此 看涨者有充分的理由 看跌者也有充分的理由 So there's a good argument for the bulls a good argument for the bears.
当这种情况发生时 当交易者感到困惑时 他们会快速获利 When that happens when traders are confused they take quick profits.
因此 如果市场上涨 多头获利了结 空头开始做空 如果市场下跌 空头获利了结 多头开始买入 So if the market goes up the bulls take profits and the bears start to short. If the market goes down the bears take profits and the bulls start to buy.
然后反转 所以 如果价格上涨 就反转下跌 如果价格下跌 就反 And then you reverse. So if you go up you reverse down. If you go down you r
转上涨 这就形成了一个交易区间 everse up. That creates a trading range.
日线图 周线图和月线图都是如此 这是月线图 And so that's true on the daily chart weekly chart monthly chart. This is the monthly chart.
我认为交易区间至少会持续几个K线图 比如三个K线图 And I think at a minimum the trading range will last at least a few bars like this three bars.
这种情况可能会持续一年 也可能持续几年 It could last a year like that. It could last a couple years like this.
区间的底部可能在这里 也可能稍微低一点 区间的顶部可能在这里 也可能稍微高一点 And the bottom of the range might be here it might be a little bit lower. The top of the range might be here it might be a little bit higher.
但我认为我们可能正处于交易区间的早期阶段 But I think we're probably in the early stages of a trading range.
此外 当您出现真正强劲的突破和回调时 您就处于突破回调通道类型的趋势中 Also when you have a really strong breakout and a pullback you're in a breakout pullback channel type of trend.
在某个时刻 多头通道结束 并转入交易区间 At some point the bull channel ends and you transition into a trading range.
交易区间的底部通常位于突破后的回调底部 The bottom of the trading range is often at the bottom of the pullback after the breakout.
因此 突破回调反弹 然后回落并测试该区域 So a breakout pullback rally and then come back down and test around this area.
所以我怀疑......我认为我们在未来两三年内重返这里的概率是 50% So I suspect... I think there's a 50 50 chance we'll be back here within the next two or three years.
记住 这是月线图 所以每根K线代表一个月 它花了三年时间才达到这个水平 Remember this is a monthly chart so each bar is a month. And it took three years to get up here.
如果返回需要同样长的时间 那么到达那里可能需要三年时间 If it took just as long to get back down it could be three years to get down there.
那么基本面 关税和所有这些东西怎么样 What about the fundamentals and the tariffs and all that stuff
我是个技术型交易员 我交易的是图表形态 所以我真的不在乎 I'm a technical trader. I trade chart patterns. So I really don't care.
显然 如果你听取绝大多数经济学家的意见 就会发现关税在经济上是没有意义的 Obviously the tariffs don't make economic sense if you listen to the vast majority of economists.
我确信关税将会改变 And I'm sure the tariffs are going to change.
但目前 我认为市场是基于技术面运作的 But now I think the market is operating based on technicals.
它的走势通常基于技术面 而非基本面 It usually moves based on technicals more than fundamentals.
在年度图表上 它根据基本面变动 On the yearly chart it moves on fundamentals.
但在日线图 周线图上 它主要是技术性的 But on the daily chart weekly chart it's mostly technical.
你知道 向上移动并测试阻力 向下移动并测试支撑 You know moving up and testing resistance moving down and testing support.
你要么获得突破 要么获得反转 And you either get breakouts or reversals.
现在 我们跌破了 GloVeX 的低点 Now we broke below the GloVeX low.
昨天我们跌破了 GloVeX 的低点 Yesterday we broke below the GloVeX low.
昨天 我的意思是星期四 Yesterday I mean Thursday.
然后我们倒车了 And we reversed up.
我们没必要倒车 We do not have to reverse up.
有时它会跌破 GloVeX 低点 就像这样 并形成一个大的空头趋势 Sometimes it will break below the GloVeX low like this and form a big bear trend.
而其他时候 它就会跌至该值以下 And other times it will just dip below it.
在这里 我们测试了 GloVeX 的低点 突破了它 然后又回落了 Here we tested the GloVeX low broke above it and then came back down.
有时候 你会突破它 有时又跌落到它之下 Some days you will break above it and below it.
我们在这里突破了它 然后回来并对其进行了测试 Here we broke below it came back up and tested it.
在这里 我们强势突破了 GloVeX 高点 突破了 GloVeX 高点 再次突破了它 Here we broke strongly above the GloVeX high broke above the GloVeX high broke above it again.
每月两次 大约两次 所以占 10% 的时间 And twice a month about twice a month so 10% of the time.
我正在尝试找到一个可以说明我所谈论内容的例子 I'm trying to find a single example of what I'm talking about.
但这种情况大约每月发生两次 But about twice a month this happens.
市场没有突破 GloVeX 的低点 也没有突破 GloVeX 的高点 The market does not break above the GloVeX low it does not break above the GloVeX high.
因此 10% 的时间它不会突破 GloVeX 区间 So 10% of the time it does not break above the GloVeX range.
这意味着 90% 的时间都是如此 That means 90% of the time it does.
并且它通常会在最初一两个小时内突破 GloVeX 区间 And it usually breaks above the GloVeX range in the first hour or two.
因此 如果你接近 GloVeX 低点 这是 15 分钟的短线 So if you are near the GloVeX low and this is the 15 minute short
如果您接近 GloVeX 低点并且正在获得空头条 那么您可能会至少走低一点 if you are near the GloVeX low and you are getting bear bars you are probably going at least a little bit lower.
并非总是如此 有时它会下降到 GloVeX 低点 而不会低于它 Not always sometimes it will go just down to the GloVeX low and not go below it
然后反转上涨并跌破 GloVeX 高点 and then reverse up and go below the GloVeX high.
但此时我们的股价已经跌破了 GloVeX 的低点 But here we went below the GloVeX low.
这是一部五分钟的 GloVeX 空头 横向播放了几个小时 This is a five minute GloVeX short sideways for a couple of hours.
空头人士希望空头通道能够继续 并且我们能够再创佳绩 The bears are hoping the bear channel continues and that we get another leg down.
你可以看到 一旦跌破 GloVeX 的低点 我们就会反弹 You can see what happened once we went below the GloVeX low. We rallied.
我们之所以团结起来 是因为我所说的话 And the reason we rallied is because of what I said.
整个晚上 每当我们创下新低时 如果你在那个低点买入并在更低的价位买入更多 你就赚钱了 All night long every time we made a new low if you bought that low and bought more lower you made money.
因此交易员们有限价订单来低价购买 GloVeX So traders had limit orders to buy the GloVeX low.
您可以看到代表市场上涨了五个多点 And you can see the rep market rallied more than five points.
因此 如果您低价购买 GloVeX 您就可以获得五分 So if you bought that GloVeX low you could have made five points.
其中一台计算机就是这样做的 And that's what one of the computers did.
连续三个空头K线 最后一个K线收于其最低点附近 OK three consecutive bear bars. The last one closed near its low.
因此 你会得到更多愿意做空的空头 So you will get more bears willing to short.
如果您在这里抛售 那么今天成为大空头趋势日的可能性有多大 If you're selling down here what's the probability that this is going to be a big bear trend day
我不知道 30% I don't know 30 percent
所以这实际上并不是我进行交易的概率 So it's not really my probability on a trade.
如果你在这里卖出 理论上 你的止损点就位于空头趋势顶部的上方 And if you're selling here theoretically your stop is above the top of the bear trend up here.
因此 您面临大约 30 分的风险 So you're risking about 30 points.
如果你这样做 你应该进行小额交易 And if you're doing that you should trade small.
因此 在这种情况下 您可能会卖出低于三股的股票 但交易量仅为正常头寸规模的 20% So in a situation like that for example you might sell below three but trade only 20 percent of your normal position size.
如果您通常交易一只 E mini 那就是 10 只微型 E mini 您在这里卖出两只微型 E mini If you normally trade one e mini that's 10 micro e minis you sell two micro e minis here.
在那里停下来 Put a stop up there.
如果价格继续下跌 你的仓位比最初的价格低了那么一点 And if it keeps going down and you're the size of a scalp below your first price
当你得到另一个出售的理由时 你又会根据另外两个理由出售 and you get another reason to sell then you sell on another two.
一只尾巴大 两只尾巴也大 Big tail on one big tail on two.
增加了我们获得某种反转的机会 Increases the chances that we're going to get some kind of a reversal.
然后 当您查看反冲过程时 每次它达到新的低点时 它就会反转 And then when you look at the blowback session every time it makes a new low it reverses.
因此 我们某个时候出现反转的可能性就更大了 So an increased chance that we're probably going to get a reversal some time.
反转可能会导致交易区间 也可能导致多头趋势 The reversal might lead to a trading range it might lead to a bull trend.
我们获得的空头条越多 获得大多头趋势的可能性就越小 The more bear bars we get the less likely we're going to get a big bull trend.
您可以看到 在三个低点处 卖家的数量是否远远多于买家的数量 You can see at the three low were there far more sellers than buyers
不 只是差不多相同的数字 No. It was just about the same number.
我之所以这么说 是因为市场正在反弹至三个低点 And I say that because the market is bouncing back up to the three low.
所以这说明 尽管我们今天只有空头K线 So that tells you that even though we've only had bear bars today
不会有很多交易者愿意以低价出售 you're not getting a lot of traders willing to sell at the low.
并且您会得到愿意以低价购买的交易者 And you are getting traders willing to buy at the low.
现在全球基准低点就在这附近 交易员们买入了它 Now the global base low is somewhere around here and traders bought it.
您是否看到那里的市场出现了大幅增长 Did you see that market had a big spurt there
因此一些计算机可能购买了一千份合约 也许两千份合约 So some computer bought probably a thousand contracts maybe two thousand contracts.
计算机正在计算 The computers are calculating.
我们在这里举行反弹 我们在这里举行反弹 我们在这里举行反弹 We've got a rally here we've got a rally here we've got a rally here.
远低于平均价格的购买量过多 There's too much buying going on far below the average price.
因此 卖出的计算机越来越少 而购买的计算机越来越多 So fewer computers are selling and more and more computers are buying.
现在 你能在4以上买入吗 假设4是靠近USI的多头线 Now can you buy above four Let's say four is a bull bar close to the USI.
是的 一些交易者会在四点以上买入 因为存在微型双底 Yes some traders will buy above four because there's a micro double bottom.
二下 二上 三下 四 四上 Down on two up on two down on three four up on four.
两个低点之间的最高价是颈线 The highest price in between the two lows is the neckline.
而现在 最高价是三高价 And now that highest price is the three high.
因此 有些计算机的购买价格会比三块钱高出一块 So you'll have some computers buying one tick above three.
如果四是外部上K线 好吧 它不是 If four is an outside up bar okay it's not.
但如果四高高于三 那么四... But if the four high was above three then the four...
那些没有买入三以上股票的交易者 他们会买入四以上股票 The traders who did not buy above three they would buy above four.
现在 四号K线体呈多头形态 我们有一个微型双底 Now four has a bull body. We have a micro double bottom.
今天前四根K线中的三根底部都有大尾部 Three of the first four bars today have big tails on the bottom.
因此 前四家K线中的三家都有很多买主 So three of the first four bars have a lot of buying.
但四支股票的收盘价并未接近其最高价 But four did not close near its high.
这将减少购买四件以上商品的买家数量 That will reduce the number of buyers who bought above four.
然而 这却引发了空头的担忧 However it's creating concern for the bears.
你知道 空头已经卖出了两股收盘价 You know the bears have sold the close of two.
不好意思 空头已经卖出了一个 Excuse me the bears have sold the close of one.
空头已卖出三股以下 Bears have sold below three.
空头无论出于什么原因都已经抛售 The bears have sold for any reason.
当市场价格远低于平均价格时 他们不喜欢金条底部出现尾部 They don't like tails on the bottom of bars when the market is far below the average price.
而且他们不喜欢保险杠 And they don't like bull bars.
因此 一些空头会在任何多头线上方（例如四根）买回空头 So some bears will buy back their shorts above any bull bar like four.
如果你再得到一条熊条 比如说五六条 And then if you get another bear bar like let's say five or six
空头的收盘价接近其最低价了吗 他们随时可以卖出 is a bear bar closing near its low They can always sell.
他们总是可以再次出售 They can always sell again.
那么你应该在五点以上出门吗 So should you get out above five
没必要 你可以保持止损在 1 以上 You don't have to. You can keep a stop above one.
但对我来说 我不会在这里缺少什么 But to me I would not be short down here.
这是合理的 但我个人不会这么做 It's reasonable but I personally wouldn't do it.
数学还不够好 The math is just not good enough.
如果你不想冒险 And if you do not want to risk all the way above the high of one
另一种选择是退出任何K线图高点上方的头皮大小 another alternative is to exit the size of a scalp above the high of any bar.
因此现在 这些空头将会停止 So now those bears would have a stop.
他们会阻止自己达到四倍以上的头皮大小 They would stop themselves out the size of a scalp above four.
现在 头皮的大小通常与普通金条的大小差不多 甚至可能略小一些 Now a scalp is usually about the size of an average bar maybe a little bit less.
而且这些K线图都超过10点了 And these bars are more than 10 points.
因此 目前头皮可能是 10 分 So currently a scalp might be 10 points.
10 分就是 40 个刻度 And 10 points is 40 ticks.
对于多头来说 为了赚钱 他买入的价格要高于四点 For a bull to make money buying one tick above four he gets in one tick above four
他下了一个限价单 比这个价格高出 40 个刻度 所以就是 41 个刻度 he places a limit order 40 ticks above that so that's 41 ticks.
除非市场价格比他的订单高出一个单位 否则该订单将不会被执行 That order will not get filled unless the market goes one tick above his order.
因此它必须比 4 高出 42 个刻度 So it has to go 42 ticks above four.
因此 在 4 点以上 42 个刻度退出是合理的 So it's reasonable to exit 42 ticks above four.
如果你不想在四点以上出局 也不想冒险一路升至一点以上 If you don't want to get out just above four and you don't want to risk all the way to above one
你可以得到高于四点的 42 个刻度 正好在那里 you can get out 42 ticks above four which is on there.
原因是你只能以远低于平均价格的价格出售 And the reason for that is you're only going to be selling far below the average price
如果您正在寻找相当不错的下行动作 if you're looking for a pretty good move down.
这个概率并不是那么高 The probability is not all that high.
所以你押注的是相当强劲的空头趋势 So you're betting on a pretty strong bear trend.
如果多头可以通过设置止损单在四点以上或任何一根K线上方买入获利 If the bulls can make money buying with a stop order above four or above any bar
那么空头趋势就不是很强 then the bear trend is not very strong.
如果你做空 那是因为你认为空头趋势强劲 And if you short it you short it because you thought the bear trend was strong.
现在你有证据表明它并不强大 And now you have evidence that it's not strong.
因此 你应该离开 Therefore you should get out.
所以如果你在强劲的空头趋势中卖出 So if you're selling in a strong bear trend
多头可以赚钱 尤其是止损单 and the bulls can make money especially with stop orders
空头趋势不再强劲 the bear trend is no longer strong.
空头趋势强劲 一些多头可能会在此价位上方买入 Strong bear trend. Some bulls would buy above that.
所以他们可能会走到最底层 So they might go to the bottom.
有不同的方法可以将其视为抛物线楔 There are different ways to look at it as a parabolic wedge.
但你也可以说 好吧 我可以买入高于这个价格或那个价格的股票 But you could also say well I could buy above that or that.
一般而言 空头应该在任何多头线收盘价高于其中点时出局 A bear in general should get out above any bull bar closing above its midpoint.
而且它们肯定应该比任何K线的头皮大小都要大 And they certainly should get out the size of a scalp above any bar.
因此 这里的头皮 K线图大约有十点高 So a scalp here the bars are about ten points tall.
一个头皮大概有十个点 A scalp is about ten points.
因此 如果他们没有超过这个标准 那么他们就会比这个标准高出十分 So if they did not get out above this bar they get out ten points above it.
或者他们从保险杠上方出来 Or they get out above the bull bar.
空头的力量足够强大 足以阻止多头跌破四 The bears are strong enough to prevent the bulls from going below four.
这对空头来说是好事 So that's good for the bears.
但前四根K线中的三根K线下方都有明显的尾部 But three of the first four bars have prominent tails below.
这对空头来说是坏消息 That's bad for the bears.
空头正试图让市场变得更加悲观 The bears are trying to make the market more bearish.
他们怎么能做到这一点 How can they do that
好吧 他们可以开始让空头条在其低点附近收盘 并让连续的空头条在其低点附近收盘 Well they can start to get bear bars closing near their lows and consecutive bear bars closing near their lows.
他们正试图在五号位取得突破 They're trying to get a breakout bar here on five.
空头突破K线是指一根相对较大的空头实体 其收盘价低于前一根K线的最低价 A bear breakout bar is a relatively big bear body closing below the low of the prior bar.
因此空头试图让 5 收于 4 以下 So the bears are trying to get five to close below four.
如果他们这样做 市场下跌的可能性就会增加 And if they do that it increases the chances that the market will go lower.
因此 如果他们在第五条上获得突破 那么下一条也将是突破 And so if they get a breakout bar on five and then the next bar is also a breakout bar.
很多交易商只是在市场上卖出 因为有 70% 的可能性至少有几个湖泊会关闭 A lot of traders just sell at the market because there will be a 70% chance of at least a couple of lakes down.
我看不见...让我放大一下 Okay I cannot see... let me magnify this.
看看五个关闭的和四个低的 Look at the five closed and the four low.
我们还没有到达那里 Okay we did not get below it.
五没有收于四以下 Okay five did not close below four.
那是一个问题 That is a problem.
经验丰富的交易员知道 如果五点收于四点以下 这将是强势空头的迹象 Experienced traders know that if five closed below four that would be a sign of strong bears.
然而空头却无法做到这一点 Yet the bears were unable to do that.
因此空头趋势肯定存在问题 So something is wrong with the bear trend.
这增加了我们实现某种反转的机会 It increases the chances that we're going to get some kind of reversal.
不一定在第六小节 也许在第十五小节 Not necessarily on bar six maybe on bar 15.
但它增加了我们实现某种反转的机会 But it increases the chances that we're going to get some kind of reversal.
要么上涨至多头朋友 要么上涨至交易区间 Either up into a bull friend or up into a trading range.
那么 购买六个以上怎么样 Now what about buying above six
假设六是一根大多头线 收盘价接近最高价 Let's say six is a big bull bar closing near its high.
上面可以买吗 Can you buy above it
嗯 你会有一个熊微频道 Well you would have a bear microchannel.
今天的每个高点都位于指针条的高点或以下 Every high today has been at or below the high of the pointer bar.
这就是无情的推销 So that's relentless selling.
这降低了反转突破六点的可能性 That reduces the chances a reversal above six will get very far.
然而 这将是第三次反转 However it will be a third reversal up.
我们下降了两个 上升了两个 We went down on two up on two.
下降四 上升四 Down on four up on four.
如果我们在六点处下降 在六点处上升 那将形成一个抛物线楔形 If we go down on six and up on six that would be a parabolic wedge.
楔形底部有三次反转和一个紧密的空头通道 A wedge bottom with three reversals and a tight bear channel.
卖出低于三的空头 如果他们卖出少量仓位 The bears who sold below three if they sold a small position
现在比三点低了大约十分 were now about ten points below three.
因此 如果有出售的理由 他们可能会考虑出售更多 And therefore they could look to sell more if there's a reason to sell.
假设六是一根大空头K线 收盘价接近其低点 Let's say six is a big bear bar closing near its low.
这可能是出售的一个理由 That would be a reason to sell.
因此他们可以卖出更多低于六种的产品 So they could sell more below six.
如果我们继续下跌 他们就会以更低的价格卖出更多 And if we keep going down they would sell more lower.
而这样做的原因 进行小额交易的原因 And the reason for doing that the reason for trading small
如果你对交易没有信心 is if you're not confident about the trade
你不应该进行这笔交易 you should not be taking the trade.
但如果你担心风险和损失太多钱 But if you're thinking about risk and losing too much money
你认为市场很有可能继续下跌 and you think there's a decent chance the market may go lower
如果你不想错过空头大趋势 and you don't want to miss a big bear trend
卖出少量仓位 sell a small position.
你知道 昨天 如果你不想低于这个价格卖出 You know yesterday if you don't want to sell below that or that
一旦出现三根空头条 价格可能会进一步下跌 once you get three bear bars you're probably going lower.
你可以在这里卖出 一旦价格下跌 10 点 就在这里卖出更多 You can sell here. Once you go ten points lower sell more here.
一旦你这样做了 就可以在这里卖出更多东西 Once you do that sell more here.
如果你这样做 你最终会获得巨额利润 And if you do that you're going to end up with a huge profit.
如果你看到反转 可能是抛物线楔形 If you see a reversal possibly a parabolic wedge
一 二 三 在一次非常大的抛售高潮之后 one two and three after a very big sell climax
因此空头突破 回调和抛物线通道 so a bear breakout pullback and a parabolic channel
你可以在这里买入少量仓位 you could buy a small position here
然后K线图的高度为五到十点 and then the bars are five or ten points tall.
如果市场上涨五到十点 If the market was up five or ten points
你可以在这里买更多 在这里买更多 在这里买更多 you could buy more here more here more here
最终你会获得巨额利润 and you'll end up with a very big profit.
所以即使你的交易规模很小 So even though you're trading very small
你最终会获得巨额利润 you're ending up with a big profit.
这就是这里发生的事情 And that is what is going on here.
现在 下面的磁铁...... Now magnets below...
你必须一路跌到4月10日的低点 you have to go all the way down to the April 10th low
低于 100 分 and that's a hundred points below.
目前不太可能 我把60分钟图放在这里 now it's unlikely. I'll put the 60 minute chart here.
好吧 我们有一个非常大的突破和回调 Okay we have a very big breakout and a pullback
然后出现反弹 所以这是一个突破块通道多头 朋友 and then a rally. So it's a breakout channel bull friend.
该通道并未创下新高 The channel did not make a new high.
但每当你有突破 然后引导朋友 But whenever you have a breakout and then channel friend
市场往往会测试该低点 the market tends to test that low.
所以我怀疑我们会测试这个低点 So I suspect we'll test this low
在接下来的几天内 sometime in the next couple of days.
我们今天能到达那里吗 Will we get there today
我认为我们今天无法实现这一目标的原因 The reason I don't think we'll get there today
是因为它比我们现在低了100点 is because it's a hundred points below where we are
我们已经落后90分了 and we're already down 90 points.
所以当天股价必须下跌 200 点 So the day would have to be down 200 points on the day
那将是非常不寻常的一天 and that would be a very unusual day.
这并不罕见 It would not be that unusual
与过去一个月相比 compared to what we've had over the past month
但这仍然相当不寻常 but it would still be fairly unusual.
空头想要空头K线 The bears want bear bars
连续空头条 连续大空头条 consecutive bear bars consecutive big bear bars
连续的大空头K线收盘接近其低点 consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows
并收于前一根K线的最低价以下 and closing below the lows of the prior bars.
那么如果是六个会发生什么情况呢 So what happens with six
现在我们有连续的大熊条 Now we have consecutive big bear bars
收盘价接近最低点 closing near their lows
这就是卖出市场 So that is sell the market
所以这是另一个卖出信号 so it's another sell signal
但我们确实远低于移动平均水平 but we're really far below the moving average
有可能 and there's a chance that it could be
彻底的卖出高潮 an exhaustive sell climax.
当你的力量增加时 Whenever you have an increase in strength
空头趋势后期出现空头 of a bear trend coming late in the bear trend
你将会得到一些获利者 you're going to get some profit takers.
目前 连续的大空头K线收盘于低点附近 now consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows
突破日内新低 breaking through the new low of the day.
我们有百分之七十的机会 Seventy percent chance we're going to get
至少还有第二条腿 at least a second leg down
因此第一步将减缓 70% 的机会 so the first move will slow up 70% chance.
这将是轻微的 It'll be minor.
另外 当你爆发的时候 Also when you get a breakout
你突破了四个低点 you broke out of the four low
你必须时刻思考 you always got to be thinking
嗯 突破通常会导致有节制的波动 well breakouts often lead to measured moves
所以现在可能会有一些获利回吐 so there may be some profit taking here
如果你实体矮小 and if you are short
至少采取 it's reasonable to take at least
部分利润 例如以半价出售 partial profits like take half off this price.
它也位于棕色大数字 5200 附近 It's also around the big brown number 5200.
你能开始购买吗 Can you start buying
并在此扩大多头规模 and scaling into longs here
没有 Nope.
你所做的就是卖出 All you're doing is selling
或者等待 如果你在等待 or waiting and if you're waiting
你在等待回调 you're waiting for a pullback short
或者您正在等待反转上涨再买入 or you're waiting for a reversal up to buy.
第一次反转 And the first reversal up
可能影响不大 probably will be minor
但如果你在七点时看到一个非常强劲的多头 but if you get a really strong bull bar on seven
有些交易者会购买超过七种 some traders will buy above seven
因为空头会买回空头 because bears will buy back shorts.
但即使我们确实得到了相当不错的多头 But even if we do get a pretty good bull bar
这太强大了 this is so strong
我们可能会下来测试第六次收盘 we'll probably come down and test the sixth close
或第七次收盘 因此第一次反转幅度较小 or the seventh close so the first reversal up will be minor.
如果我们发生反转 目标又在哪里 And where's the target if we get a reversal
处于最近一次抛售高潮的顶部 At the top of the most recent sell climax.
所以如果我们出现反转 第一个目标 So if we get a reversal the first target
将会是前五名 would be the top of five.
交易员变得越来越 Traders are becoming much more
对更低价格充满信心 confident of lower prices.
正如我所说 我们有 70% 的机会 As I said 70% chance we're going to get
至少第二回合要落后一点 at least a small second leg down.
有时第二轮的跌幅很小 Sometimes the second leg down is small.
这里出现了非常大的抛售和反转 Here a very big sell off and a reversal.
有时第二腿的幅度很小 有时它不会创下新低 Sometimes the second leg is small and sometimes it does not make a new low.
所以它是横向的而不是向下的 So it's sideways instead of down.
多头突破则恰恰相反 Opposites true with a bull breakout.
一旦你看到一个非常大的多头线在最高点收盘 Once you see a very big bull bar closing at its high
以及一根多头跟进K线 and a bull follow through bar
有 70% 的机会 您至少可以抬起两条腿 70% chance you're going to get at least two legs up.
因此 如果出现反转 And therefore if you get a reversal down
更多的交易者将会买卖它 more traders will buy it and sell it.
因此 低于该水平的买入交易者多于卖出交易者 So more traders bought below that bar than sold.
现在我们已经有了第二轮上涨 并且第二轮上涨还在继续 And here we had a second leg up and the second leg up continued.
但看到这一点之后 最低目标就是第二次站起来 But the minimum goal after you see this is a second leg up.
因此 先抬起腿 再向后拉 So first leg up pull back.
第二条腿向上 这满足了最低定义 And second leg up. This met the minimum definition.
有时 第二轮上涨的幅度会更大 Sometimes the second leg up goes a lot higher.
真正强劲的突破 Really strong breakout.
有 70% 的机会 您将获得至少第二条腿向下或向侧面伸展 70% chance you're going to get at least a second leg down or sideways.
这里我们有第二条侧腿 Here we have a second leg sideways.
然后它又上升了一点 And then it went up a little higher.
然后第二条腿变得更大并且下降了 And then the second leg became bigger and it went down.
我所说的下降是指创下新低 By down I mean a new low.
我所说的横向走势是指空头条 而不是新的低点 By sideways I mean a bear bar but not a new low.
它应该会根据测量的运动获得一些获利回吐 It should get some profit taking around the measured movement.
但获利了结意味着有买入 But profit taking means there's buying.
但这并不是多头买入 而是空头买入 But it's not so much bulls buying it's bears buying.
空头回购空头 Bears buying back shorts.
Globex 图表处于空头通道中 The Globex chart was in a bear channel.
现在我们正迎来一场大空头突破 And now we're getting a big bear breakout.
大多数情况下 75% 的时间当你处于空头通道时 Most of the time 75% of the time when you have a bear channel
您将突破通道顶部 you'll get a breakout above the top of the channel.
25% 的时间里 您会突破通道底部 25% of the time you'll get a breakout below the bottom of the channel.
我要把屏幕关掉一会儿 I'm going to turn the screen off for a minute.
我收集了一些幻灯片 And I've got a collection of slides.
我把所有东西都分类 I categorize everything.
所以我有一本图表模式百科全书 So I've got an encyclopedia of chart patterns.
我将打开其中一个 PowerPoint 来说明一个观点 I'm going to open one of the PowerPoints to illustrate a point.
我要去熊频道了 Okay I'm going to go to bear channels.
您可以看到我有很多种类型的价格行为 You can see I have lots of types of price action.
因此 您已经看到了下行通道和空头突破 So you've got a channel down and a bear breakout.
嗯 有时你会处于空头通道中 Well sometimes you're in a bear channel.
而不是出现多头突破和转向交易区间 And instead of having a bull breakout and a transition to a trading range
你会看到空头突破 you get a bear breakout.
而且它常常会导致价格有节制地下跌 And it often leads to a measured move down.
这就是我们所拥有的 So that's what we have.
空头通道 然后空头突破 A bear channel and then a bear breakout.
一个非常紧密的空头通道 然后是一个非常强劲的空头突破 A very tight bear channel and then a very strong bear breakout.
小幅回调的空头趋势 A small pullback bear trend.
看起来像是一个交易区间 但我们得到的却是空头突破 Looks like a trading range but instead we got a bear breakout.
在这里我们确实得到了反转 Here we did get a reversal.
基本上是一个交易区间 Basically a trading range.
您还可以说空头通道的高点越来越低 低点越来越低 然后崩溃 You can also say lower highs lower lows of bear channel and then a collapse.
楔形 是空头通道的一种 A wedge which is a type of bear channel.
然后 75% 的情况下不会出现多头突破 And then instead of a bull breakout which happens 75% of the time
25% 的时间里 您会成功突破空头并出现某种程度的下跌 25% of the time you get a successful bear breakout and some kind of a measured move down.
楔子的起点在这里 楔子的底部在这里或这里 And here the start of the wedge is here the bottom of the wedge is here or here.
我们在通道底部取得了比预期更显著的进展 We got more than a measured move down below the bottom of the channel.
高潮抛售通常不会持续一整天 Climactic selling usually will not last all day.
您可以看到一些获利回吐的情况 And you can see that some profit taking.
卖方的根本原因是什么 What are the fundamental reasons for the seller
我不知道 我不关心 I don't know. I don't care.
我只关心市场是否下跌 All I care is the market is going down.
所以我只想做空 但卖出少量股票 So all I want to do is short but sell small.
我们有 70% 的机会获得第二条横贯路径 70% chance we're going to get a second leg sideways to down.
因此交易者将会在第一次反转上涨时卖出 So traders will sell the first reversal up.
这是一种极端行为 This is extreme behavior.
我们跌破了上周的低点 We broke below last week's low.
每周图表 Weekly chart.
他们的抛售确实很强劲 They had a really strong sell off.
大的反转形成了内线 A big reversal formed an inside bar.
该最高价低于前一根K线的最高价 The high is below the high of the prior bar.
最低价高于前一根K线的最低价 The low is above the low of the prior bar.
所以这是卖出信号 所以是空头趋势和回调 So it's a low on sell signal. So a bear trend and a pullback.
这是卖出信号 It's a sell signal.
它的尾巴相当突出 It has a fairly prominent tail.
这降低了恢复这一趋势的可能性 That lowers the probability of this being a resumption of the trend.
它跟随着一个巨大的保险杠 And it follows an extremely big bull bar.
进一步降低了我们走低的可能性 Further reducing the probability that we're going a lot lower.
下降幅度非常大 上升幅度非常大 混乱程度非常大 Very big down very big up very big confusion.
这是每周图表 So this is the weekly chart.
它与月度图表类似 It's similar to the monthly chart.
月度图表大幅上涨 大幅下跌 十分混乱 The monthly chart has big up big down big confusion.
周线图大幅下跌 大幅上涨 非常混乱 The weekly chart has big down big up big confusion.
因此周线图可能正在进入交易区间 So the weekly chart is probably entering a trading range.
日线图 同样如此 Daily chart same thing.
大幅下跌 Very big move down.
大幅上涨 Extremely big move up.
可能是一个交易区间 Probably a trading range.
大跌 大涨 大跌 大涨 再大跌 Big down big up big down big up big down again.
区间的底部 可能在这里 可能在这里 甚至可能低于这个水平 Bottom of the range it might be here it might be here it might be even below this.
但这可能只是未来交易区间中的一个缺口 But this is probably a bare leg in what will become a trading range.
看看这个 K线的大小 And just looking at this the size of the bars
至少在未来几个月内 它可能会处于一个交易区间内 就像这样 it's probably going to be a trading range for at least a couple of months like this.
很多时候 市场处于交易区间 也处于多头趋势 A lot of times the markets in the trading range it's also in a bull trend.
或者处于空头趋势 Or it's in a bear trend.
但一旦结束 你可以说 嘿 等一下 But once it ends you can say hey wait a minute
那个市场确实横盘了两个月 that market was really sideways for two months.
因此 这是一个多头趋势 但它是交易区间内的多头 So this was a bull trend but it was a bull leg within a trading range.
这是一个空头趋势 但它处于交易区间内 This was a bear trend but it was within a trading range.
我认为这就是目前发生的事情 And I think that's what's going on here.
所以我想 我不知道我们能走多远 So I think I don't know how far down we go.
我们现在正处于其中 We're kind of in the middle of it now.
但我怀疑我们会崩溃 But I doubt we're going to collapse.
我想明确一点 我认为市场是这样的 这是月度图表 I want to be clear I think the market is this is the monthly chart
我认为我们正处于一个交易区间 而且这种情况会持续几个月 I think we're in a trading range and it's going to last several months
我相信这种势头将持续到今年年底 and I believe it's going to last for the rest of the year.
我不知道这个区间的底部是否会在这里 And I don't know if the bottom of the range will be here
我不知道这个区间的上限是否会在这里 它可能会更高一点 I don't know if the top of the range will be here it could be a little bit higher
底部可能还会稍微低一点 但目前我们正处于我认为将会成为交易区间的中间位置 the bottom could be a little bit lower but now we're in the middle of what I think is going to turn out to be a trading range.
前八根杠上只有一根牛杠 Only one bull bar on the first eight bars
这是一个非常小的保险杠 and it's a very small bull bar.
每个高点都等于或低于前一个K线的高点 Every high at or below the high of the prior bar.
因此 两者都是持续抛售的迹象 So both are signs of relentless selling.
现在 如果价格超过八 您会买入还是卖出 Now do you buy or sell if it goes above eight
我们有一个抛售高潮 一个微型双底 We've got a sell climax a microdouble bottom
下降到七 上升到七 下降到八 试图上升到九 down on seven up on seven down on eight trying to go up on nine.
我不会购买八个以上的产品 I would not buy above eight.
在八高价位 卖家可能比买家多 Probably more sellers than buyers at the eight high.
而这里有一家商店 价格至少在八点以上十分 Whereas there's a shop way way up here or at least ten points above eight.
对于多头来说 如果九个 And for the bulls what happens if nine
是一个小型的侧向保险杠 is a small sideways bull bar
接近最高价 那我肯定会退出 closing near its high Then I would definitely get out
高于九 我们有一个微双底和一个卖出高潮 above nine. We have a microdouble bottom and a sell climax.
这不完全是一对眼 And it's not quite an eye eye
第二个内线 但如果九是内线 second of inside bars. But if nine is an inside bar
在八几乎成为内线之后 我认为多头将在九以上买入 after eight being almost an inside bar I think bulls will buy above nine.
我要暂时关闭屏幕 I'm going to turn the screen off for a moment.
打开另一个电源点 Open up another power point.
任何多头线 任何空头线 Any bull bar any bear bar
收盘接近其低点 是卖出高潮 closing near its low is a sell climax.
任何一系列的空头K线图都是卖出的高潮 Any series of bear bars is a sell climax.
即使其中一些下面有大尾巴 Even if some of them have big tails below.
因此 你可以称之为空头趋势 你可以称之为卖出高潮 你可以称之为空头突破 So you can call it a bear trend you can call it a sell climax you can call it a bear breakout.
这就是所有这些东西 It is all of those things.
你可以获得一个真正巨大的卖出高潮 And you can get a really big sell climax and
然后反转上涨 有时反转可能来自 then a reversal up. And sometimes a reversal will come from
连续的内线 有时它会来自 consecutive inside bars. Sometimes it will come from a
抛物线楔形 有时它会来自一个或两个空头陷阱 parabolic wedge. Sometimes it will come from a bear trap or two bear traps.
这正是空头想要的 This is what the bears want.
百分之二十的可能性出现大规模抛售 Twenty percent chance a big sell off
开盘价会持续一整天 20% 的可能性会出现大抛售 on the open will last all day. Twenty percent chance a big sell off
开盘就会反转 成为多头朋友 on the open will reverse become a bull friend.
今天的卖盘非常强劲 我们还有第二个这样的 So a very strong selling like today. We have a second like that
第三个也是这样 所以这里有一个小楔形底部 a third like that. So there is a small wedge bottom here.
一 二 三 百分之六十的概率 One two and three. And a sixty percent chance
强劲的抛售将会结束 你将迎来反弹 The strong selling will end and you will get a rally and
你会至少横着走几个小时 这里是横着走的 you will go sideways for at least a couple of hours. Here it was sideways for
大约四个小时 about four hours.
大规模抛售 抛售高潮 多头将在上方买入 多头线收盘 Big big sell off sell climax. Bulls will buy above bull bars closing
接近高点 大举抛售 抛售高潮 near their highs. Big big sell off sell climax.
微双底 向下 Microdouble bottom down
然后上涨 下跌 再上涨 一些交易者会在第二个十字星上方买入 and up down and up. Some traders will buy above that second doji.
其他人则会等待多头线收于最高点附近 Others will wait for a bull bar closing near its high.
空头会买回空头 而多头则会买入空头 Bears would buy back shorts. Bulls would buy to get one.
大规模抛售和市场 Big big sell off and the market
当天剩余时间都处于多头通道中 spent the remainder of the day in a bull channel
测试当日高点 大抛售 第二 第三 testing the high of the day. Big sell off second third
随后市场在当天剩余时间内出现反转 leg down and the market spent the remainder of the day reversing.
大幅抛售 突然反转 Big big sell off burst reversal up.
强劲的买入信号线 强劲的入场条 这是次要的 Strong buy signal bar strong entry bar it was minor
我们还是下来在下面测试一下 we still came down and tested below.
多头希望九号收盘价达到或接近其高点 The bulls want nine to close on or near its high.
如果确实如此 If it does
如果你很矮 我会脱掉空头 and you are short I would get out of shorts
然后 如果 10 再次接近其低点 您可以再次以低于 10 的价格卖出 and then if ten closes near its low again you can sell it again below ten.
如果九号收盘呈牛身形态 会发生什么 What happens if nine closes with a bull body
但上面有一条大尾巴 but a big tail on top
大多数交易员都会持空头立场 他们会等着看10会是什么样子 Most traders will hold short. They will wait to see what ten looks like.
第一个小时即将结束 We are getting near the end of the first hour.
交易员们开始考虑 Traders are starting to think about
60分钟图上接下来会发生什么 我们跌破了这个低点 what will go on with the 60 minute chart. We broke below this low
空头通道 我们有一个低点 一个更低的低点 一个更低的高点 一个更低的高点 bear channel. We have a low a lower low a lower high lower high
这就是目标 and this is the target.
大约低于 60 点 So about 60 points below
我们今天就能到达那里 where we are. We could get there today
但如果我们真的到了这里 可能会有买家 but if we do get here there probably will be buyers
在这附近 我怎么知道的 around here. How do I know that
那么 当市场抛售到这个价格时 会发生什么 Well when the market sold off to this price what happened
有很多买家 所以我们知道这次有买家 There were a lot of buyers. So we know there are buyers at this
价格 如果我们再次降到这个价格 price. If we come down to that price again
很有可能会有买家 chances are there will be buyers. Will there be
买家比卖家多吗 我们不知道 但我们知道会有 more buyers than sellers That we don't know. But we do know there will be
这里有很多买家 因为我们在这里崩溃了 a lot of buyers here because here we collapsed and at that
无论出于什么原因 每个人都会买 而我们 price for whatever reason everybody bought. And we are
再次测试这个价格 如果他们再次购买 testing that price again. And if they buy again
那么我们就会看到双底牛旗形态 多头趋势和双底形态 then we will have a double bottom bull flag. A bull trend and double bottom
交易者将寻求突破 and traders will look for a breakout above the
颈线 颈线是两个低点之间的最高价 neckline. The neckline is the highest price between the two lows.
第一个低点 第二个低点 如果我们出现反转上涨 First low second low. If we get a reversal up
多头希望突破这一水平 指标就会上涨 让我们重新振作起来 the bulls will want a breakout above that and the measure will move up. Gets us back up
跌至这个交易区间 空头希望看到任何反转 to this trading range. The bears will want any reversal
形成双顶 然后他们希望突破下行趋势 up to form a double top and then they will want a breakout to the downside.
看 See
10 没有超过 9 10 did not go above 9.
有很多买单 单价高于 9 There were a lot of buy orders one take above 9.
空头退出 一些多头可能会开始买入 Bears exiting some bulls might start to buy.
但持有限价卖单的交易者数量要多得多 But there were far more traders with sell limit orders
在 9 的高点和 9 的略下方 at that 9 high and just below 9.
由于卖单数量太多 导致市场无法突破 9 There were so many sell orders they prevented the market from going above 9.
现在 我们迎来了真正的高潮 Now we have a really climactic
卖掉这里 我说的是70% sell off here. And I said 70 percent
我们至少还有一次机会 chance we would have at least one more leg down.
因此 抛售至 8 回调 So sell off to 8 a pull back and
我们现在又要把那条腿放下来 we are getting that one more leg down now.
这是否意味着我们将进行第三 第四或第五次打击 Does that mean we are going to get a third or fourth or fifth leg down
不 我的意思是 我们看到 8 之后 概率是 70% No. I mean 70 percent chance after we saw 8
我们至少还能再多走一步 但有时 这就是全部了 we would get at least one more leg down. And sometimes that is all you get.
有时 在第二回合中 你会遭遇反转 Sometimes you get a reversal on that second leg down.
这正是空头所希望的 100 块楔形 That is what the bears are hoping. 100 block wedge
第一回合 落后4分 领先4分 落后7分 first leg down on 4 up on 4 down on 7
先是 7 点上涨 然后 10 点下跌 他们希望 10 点或 11 点上涨 up on 7 and then down on 10 and they hope up on 10 or 11.
我们感受到的不仅仅是一种慎重的动作 We felt more than a measured move.
当你获得非常强劲的突破时 70% 的机会你会 Whenever you get a very strong breakout 70 percent chance you are going to get
某种慎重的动作 我认为最有可能的是 some kind of a measured move. And I thought the most likely
一个会从那么高到那么低 强劲突破 70% one would be that high to this low. Strong breakout 70 percent
你至少有机会获得第二条腿的小胜利 chance you are going to get at least a small second leg down.
第一波下跌持续到这里 很多卖家 The first leg down continued to here. And a lot of sellers
在9点的高点收盘 at the high of 9 closed line.
但可能出现抛物线楔形 我们目前位于 5200 But possible parabolic wedge we are at the 5200
大整数 下一个主要支撑位就在这里 big round number. And the next major support is here.
我们比现在低了 50 分 We are at 50 points below where we are.
或许遥不可及 日线图 And it might be out of reach. Daily chart.
看看今天的规模 Look at the size of today.
我们很容易就会下跌50点 看看这些天的规模吧 We could easily go 50 points lower. Look at the size of these days.
它们都比我们今天所拥有的要大 They are all bigger than what we have today.
我们落后50分是绝对有可能的 It is definitely possible that we get down 50 points.
那里有多头通道 我会把它变成周线图 We have that bull channel there. I will turn this into a weekly chart.
我们有一个低点 我们有一个低点 我们画一条线 We have a low we have a low we draw a line.
跌破该价位 然后反转 Broke below it reversed up.
我们今天可能会再次测试这条线路 And we might be testing that line again today.
看看我们是否会再次反转 To see if we reverse up again.
你能在这儿的市场上卖东西吗 显然很多商贩都在这么做 Can you sell at the market here Obviously a lot of traders are doing that.
除非有更多 否则十个看起来不会如此 Ten would not look that way unless there were far more
卖出比买入多 selling than buying.
那些交易员是谁 Who are those traders
嗯 你和我类型的交易者 Well the you and me type of traders
会卖出低于八的一个价格 would sell one tick below eight.
但这里不行 我们会等 也许会以低于10的价格卖出 But not down here. We would wait maybe sell below ten.
这是第二个 This is the second.
在卖出高潮时下跌 你可以争辩说第三条腿下跌 Leg down in a sell climax. You can argue a third leg down.
一个侧面 两个侧面 三个 One sideways two sideways three.
你知道 我认为有 70% 的可能性 You know I would say 70% chance
在接下来的几根K线中 价格不会跌得太低 we are not going to go a lot lower over the next several bars.
我们将开始看到空头获利回吐 We will start to get bears taking profits.
如果他们获利了结 就会发生以下两种情况之一 And then if they take profits one of two things happens.
市场要么横盘整理 要么上涨 今天成为 The market either goes sideways or it goes up. What are the chances that today becomes
多头大趋势 大概是20% a big bull trend day Probably 20%.
当我说多头大趋势日时 我的意思是突破 And when I say a big bull trend day I mean breaking far above the
当日最高价 所以现在 即使我们开始反弹 high of the day. So now even if we start to rally
这个区间很大 this range is so big that
反转发生的可能性只有 20% only 20% chance a reversal will get very far
高于当日最高价 所以如果我们反转 最好的多头 above the high of the day. So if we reverse the best the bulls
希望得到的可能是在高点附近进行的测试 可能略高于 can hope to get probably is a test of around the high day. Maybe a little bit above
稍微低一点 你可以看到获利了结者 a little bit below. You can see profit takers
围绕着测量的移动 可能是最后的 are around the measured move. Possibly a final
熊旗形 多头想要一根多头线 bear flag. The bulls want a bull bar
收盘价接近最高价 即使只是一根小多头线 closing near its high. Even if it's a small bull bar.
所以他们希望11号收盘价接近其最高价 如果是这样 So they want 11 to close near its high. If it does
这是合理的买入 空头应该退出 it's a reasonable buy. Bears should exit
高于多头线收盘价接近其最高点 above the bull bar closing near its high.
细胞高潮在开放的反转中 再来一个 Cell climax in the open reversal. One more
放下腿 然后我们在当天的剩余时间里继续反弹 leg down and then we rally for the remainder of the day.
多头线并未突破早先的高点太多 The bull bar did not get far above the earlier high.
但这种情况经常发生 所以 But this often happens. So
你会经历一次大的细胞高潮 然后在一天的剩余时间里保持团结 you get a big cell climax and then a rally for the rest of the day.
这又是一个常见现象 大型电池终于开放了 市场 This is another common thing. Big big cell finally open and the market goes
横盘整理 还记得我说过市场至少会横盘整理几个小时吗 sideways. Remember I said the market will go sideways for at least a couple hours
我有 75% 的信心我们会做到这一点 I'm like 75% confident we're going to do that.
如果价格真的横盘整理几个小时 交易员就会怀疑 它会继续横盘整理吗 If it does go sideways for a couple hours trade will wonder will it stay sideways
今天剩余时间会如何 空头趋势会延续吗 for the rest of the day Will the bear trend resume
市场会反转吗 所以会出现大幅抛售 横盘整理 Or will the market reverse So big big sell off sideways
几个小时后 反转 大抛售 横盘整理了几个小时 for a couple hours reversal. Big big sell off sideways for a couple
小时后趋势恢复下降 hours and then trend resumption down.
像今天这样大规模抛售 大规模抛售 Big big sell off like today big big sell off
并出现大幅反转 但当天剩余时间基本保持横盘整理 and a big reversal but basically sideways for the remainder of the day.
很常见 大抛售 第二次 Very common. Big sell off a second
腿向下然后反弹 但基本上 leg down and then rally but basically
今天剩余时间横盘整理 所以在所有可能发生的情况中 sideways for the rest of the day. So of all the things that can happen
这是最有可能的事情 我们将至少在一段时间内保持平稳 that is the most likely thing that we're going to go sideways for at least a couple
小时 20% 的机会 大抛售 大抛售 hours. 20% chance big sell off big sell off
我们整天都在这么做 20% 的机会 大抛售 we just keep doing it all day long. 20% chance big sell off
大抛售 大抛售 然后我们迎来强劲的反转 big sell off big sell off and then we get a reversal into a strong
多头趋势 60% 的可能性 大抛售 大 bull trend. 60% chance big sell off big
抛售 我们就会停止下跌 sell off and we stop going down
虽然有所上涨 但基本保持横盘状态 and we go up somewhat but we basically stay sideways.
所以 至少几个小时内 有 60% 的可能性 So this is for at least a couple hours 60% chance
我们很快就会进入交易区间 20% 的机会我们会继续做下去 we're going to be soon entering a trading range. 20% chance we just keep doing
有 20% 的机会我们会这样做 有 60% 的机会我们会得到 that. 20% chance we do that. 60% chance we'll get
至少几个小时的横向交易 at least a couple hours of sideways trading.
如果我们这样做 交易员们就会怀疑 空头趋势是否会 If we do traders will wonder will the bear's trend
恢复 空头趋势会反转为多头趋势吗 还是会保持 resume will the bear's trend reverse into a bull trend or will it stay
横向 多头想要一根多头线 sideways The bulls want a bull bar
收盘价接近最高价 如果 11 是多头线 closing near its high. If 11 is a bull bar
但收盘价并未接近最高价 but it does not close near its high
多头会等待下一个价格线 他们希望多头价格线收盘价接近其最高价 the bulls will wait for one more bar. They want a bull bar closing near its high.
空头将退出 And the bears will exit either above
一根多头线收盘价高于其中点 或者 a bull bar closing above its midpoint or the size of a
任何K线上方的头皮 所以他们会退出10点 scalp above any bar. So they'll exit 10 points
甚至高于空头K线 above even a bear bar. Will the
第一个小时收盘价接近最低价 first hour close near its low Which would be
看跌 增加了至少略微下跌的可能性 bearish increasing the chances that we go at least a little bit lower.
或者在最后一分钟会有购买 Or will there be buying at the final minutes of the hour
并且我们的尾巴很突出 and we get a prominent tail
这里我们有一个大的空头K线 收盘价接近其低点 Here we have a big bear bar closing near its low
买入的交易者多于卖出的交易者 and more traders bought it than sold it.
非常大的空头条 买入的交易者比卖出的交易者多 Very big bear bar more traders bought it than sold it.
永远对一切事物保持开放态度 Always be open to everything.
即使可能性很高 营销人员也会这样做 Even if the probability is high that the marketer is going to do
某事 永远不会是 80% 90% something it's never 80% 90%
高意味着 60% 或 70% 这意味着有 30% 到 40% 的几率 High means 60% or 70%. That means 30% to 40% chance
你不会得到你所期望的 you're not going to get what you expect.
所以要始终对可能性持开放态度 So always be open to the possibility
市场将会做出与你预期完全相反的事情 that the market will do the exact opposite of what you believe it's going to do.
如果你看到证据表明它正在 And if you see evidence that it's doing
与你预期相反 如果你看到证据表明事实并非如此 the opposite of what you expected if you see evidence that it's not
按照你的预期去做 然后就离开 doing what you expected then just get out.
如果你经过一番思考后发现很难买 And if it's hard to buy after you've been thinking
它是如此的看跌 只需等待一两根K线然后买入 it's so bearish just wait a bar or two and then buy.
很多时候 卖出的高潮都是以连续的内线结束的 A lot of times sell climaxes end with consecutive inside bars.
11 在 10 之内 它的低位是 11 is inside of 10. Its low is
等于或高于 10 个最低价 其最高价等于或低于 10 个最高价 at or above the 10 low its high is at or below the 10 high.
很多时候 卖出高潮都会有连续的内线 A lot of times a sell climax will have consecutive inside bars.
如果你得到了它 你很可能会得到反转 And if you get it you're probably going to get a reversal.
有时 您会看到持续几条线的下行突破 然后出现反转 Sometimes you'll get a downside breakout lasting a few bars and then a reversal.
但对我来说这看起来太 But to me this looks way too
也... too...
分数太多 时间太少 it's just too many points and too little time.
太快了 太远了 所以我觉得这种情况不会持续太久 Too far too fast. So I think it's not going to last much longer.
因此 我预计至少会有几个小时的横盘交易 So at a minimum I'm expecting at least a couple hours of sideways trading.
连续内线 Consecutive inside bars.
我认为这通常是大卖的方式 I think that's often how very big sell
高潮结束 有时你会以几个 climaxes end. Sometimes you'll end with a couple
腿向下 有时它最终会侧身 legs down. Sometimes it'll end by just going sideways
并且不是那么清楚 and not be all that clear.
11 是低位卖出信号 但我不会接受 11 is a low one sell signal bar. But I would not take it
因为这是抛售高潮的第三阶段 because it's a third leg down in the sell climax.
所以第一条腿 向后拉 第二条腿 So first leg pull back. Second leg
回调 我认为有70%的可能性 pull back. And I think there's a 70% chance
至少有 70% 的可能性 there may be at least a 70% chance
如果我们跌破 11 我们就不会 if we break below 11 we will not
在我们出现反转之前 跌幅超过一两根K线 fall more than another bar or two before we get a reversal
从小楔形底部开始 一 向后拉 from a small wedge bottom. One pull back.
二 向后拉 三 反向做几腿 Two pull back. Three reverse for a couple legs.
这样卖家数量就减少到 11 个以下 So that reduces the number of sellers below 11.
现在 12 Now 12
不是特别大 所以第一个小时 is not particularly big. So the first hour
即将在斜坡附近关闭 is going to close near a slope.
交易员可能想看看是否有更多买家和卖家 And traders might want to see if there are more buyers and sellers
低于 60 分钟线 这意味着如果 12 不是 below that 60 minute bar. That means if 12 is not
一个相当不错的牛栏 我们连续在里面 a pretty good bull bar we have consecutive inside
K线图 那个蓝点突出显示 bars. That blue dot highlights
连续的内部K线图或连续的外部K线图 consecutive inside bars or consecutive outside bars.
所以我会脱掉 12 以上的空头 So I would get out of shorts above 12.
买12个以上就可以了 如果买或买小的 It's okay to buy above 12. If you buy or buy small
我不会低于 11 卖 如果低于 I would not sell below 11. If it goes below
11 我们有 75% 的机会尝试 11 75% chance we'll try to
从楔形底部开始 在几条K线内反转 reverse up within a few bars from a wedge bottom.
因此空头将会以高于 12 的价格买回空头 So bears would buy back shorts above 12.
II 空头后期 An II late in the bear trend
往往是反转 如果不是反转 is often a reversal. And if it's not a reversal
这通常是最终的熊旗形 所以 如果你看到空头突破 它就是熊旗形 it's usually a final bear flag. So if you get a bear breakout it's a bear flag.
但这将是最后的熊旗 所以我们可能会出现反转 But it would be the final bear flag so we'll probably get a reversal.
因此购买 12 以上是合理的 So reasonable to buy above 12.
如果你愿意的话 我会买小的 And if you do I would buy small and
买入更多 机会是 buy more higher. Chances are
我们现在或之后将进入交易区间 we're going to be entering a trading range either now or after
再次短暂滞后 然后进入交易区间 one more brief lag down then a trading range.
您可以看到空头正试图阻止市场突破 12 You can see the bears are trying to prevent the market from going above 12.
就像他们阻止 10 超过 9 一样 Just like they prevented 10 from going above 9.
但市场正在发生变化 目前市场非常悲观 But the market is changing. Very bearish here.
看跌情绪减弱 Less bearish.
熊试图 Bears trying to get
突破 II 但 a breakout below the II but
我要打开屏幕 I'm going to turn the screen on. An II
在空头趋势的后期 通常 late in the bear trend usually
要么导致反转 要么成为最终 will lead to either a reversal or it will become a final
熊旗形 因此 要么市场突破该旗形 然后 bear flag. So either the market will break above it and then go
更高 或者跌破它 然后 higher or it will break below it and then
反转关闭 reverse off.
连续内部 Consecutive inside
K线图和空头趋势 bars and a bear trend.
我们经历了空头突破 但并没有进一步下跌 然后又出现了反转 We got a bear breakout but it did not go much lower and then we got a reversal.
连续内线和空头趋势 Consecutive inside bars and a bear trend.
然后是另一组连续的内部K线图 And then another set of consecutive inside bars.
空头突破后 我们很快就迎来了反转 这里 反转 A bear breakout and we soon got a reversal. Here a reversal
进入多头趋势 连续内线 into a bull trend. Consecutive inside bars.
我们又卖了四五个K线 但后来 We got four or five more bars down but it became
最后的熊旗形 空头趋势中的最后一面熊旗形 the final bear flag. The final bear flag in the bear trend.
这不属于空头趋势 That's not in the bear trend.
这是当天开盘时的情况 That's at the open of the day.
连续内线 后期 Consecutive inside bars late in
空头趋势 市场正在变得中性 所以如果你 the bear trend. The market is becoming neutral so if you
跌破该水平后 市场可能会回到该中性价格 break below it the market will probably come back to that neutral price.
因此 如果跌破该水平 则可能会出现反转 So if you break below it you're probably going to get a reversal.
对不起 I'm sorry
我刚刚意识到我的屏幕已经关闭了 I just realized that my screen was off there.
空头趋势后期 连续的内线 通常你会得到反转 Consecutive inside bars late in the bear trend. Usually you're going to get a reversal.
要么市场高于该水平 要么市场低于该水平 空头突破失败 Either the market goes above it or it goes below it and the bear breakout fails
然后它就会超过它 连续的 and then it goes above it. Consecutive
内线图 空头趋势后期 inside bars late in the bear trend.
反转较小 空头趋势恢复 The reversal is minor the bear trend resumed.
连续的内线 再次 连续的内线 Consecutive inside bars again consecutive inside bars.
市场一度下跌一点 但随后出现反转 The market went down a little bit lower but then reversed.
你可以看到买家比卖家多 You can see more buyers than sellers at the
低于12 低于12 我说过我会 12 below and below 12. I said I would
低于12就不会卖 低于10以下就不会卖 not sell below 12 I would not sell below the 10 below the day.
所以现在我只对购买感兴趣 So now I'm only interested in buying.
我认为在市场上做多是可以的 I think it's okay to be long at the market
如果你很幸运 你可能已经买到了 12 or if you're lucky you may have bought the 12
低 但如果你这么做 你需要一个较宽的止损 low. But if you do you need a wide stop.
那么宽止点是什么呢 嗯 这是相对的 And what's a wide stop Well it's relative.
也许某项措施会降低 所以如果你买了那个 Maybe a measure moved down. So if you bought that
12 低点 交易量较小 我可能会在某个低点设置止损 12 low with trading small I would probably put a stop somewhere down
这里 如果价格真的跌到这里 如果我们反转上涨 就买入更多 here. And if it does come down here buy more if we reverse up
再次 again.
熊 我大约 12 点起床 Bears I would get up about 12.
还记得我说过我们可能必须低于第一个小时的低点吗 Remember I said we may have to go below the low of that first hour
13 低于当小时最低点 13 went below the low of the hour.
这种情况在60分钟图上经常发生 市场上出现了一条大的空头线 And that happens a lot on the 60 minute chart. A big bear bar in the market
会略低于一个刻度 五个刻度 然后 will go just a little bit below a tick five ticks and then
反转 如果60分钟图上出现一根大多头线 reverse. And if you have a big bull bar on the 60 minute chart
很多时候 市场会略微上涨 形成一个很大的多头线 a lot of times the market will go a little bit above very big bull bar
市场会稍微上涨 反转 大空头 market will go a little bit above reverse. Big bear bar
稍微低一点 然后反过来 很常见 a little bit below and reverse. Very common.
所以大空头吧 不要假设市场会走低 So big bear bar do not assume the market is going to go lower
它们只是稍微跌了一点 然后反转 交易员们想要 and they just go a little bit below and reverse. Traders want to
找出大空头K线下方卖家多还是买家多 find out are there more sellers or buyers below that big bear bar
大多头 上面有更多的卖家 再往上一点 Big bull bar there are more sellers above it and a little bit above
并反转它们 最后一面熊旗 and reverse them. A final bear flag
市场跌破该水平后 市场就会反转上涨 the market broke below it the market reversed up.
所以现在 它要么长 要么平 你可以说 So now it would either be long or flat. You can say
嗯 怎么会很长呢 或者明显是一个非常大的空头趋势 well how can it be long Or obviously a very big bear trend.
抛售高潮 A sell climax.
现在如果你确实购买了 12 个低价或 Now if you did buy the 12 low or
13高 12高 the 13 high the 12 high
它应该停在哪里 把它放在下面是合理的 where should it stop It's reasonable to put it below
13. 我们有一个微型双底 13. We have a microdouble bottom down on
10 12 上升 13 下降 然后 10 up on 12 down on 13 and then
我们正在突破颈线 两者之间的最高价 也就是 we're breaking above the neckline. The highest price in between which is the
11高点 所以你会得到更多多头买盘 第一个目标是 11 high. So you get more bulls buying. First target is
最近一次下跌的顶部 所以我们可能在这里上涨 the top of most recent leg down. So we're probably going up here.
保险杠越大 The bigger the bull bars are
交易者买入价格高于其高点的可能性就越大 the more traders will buy above their highs. What's the chance
这是大多头趋势的开始吗 that this is the start of a big bull trend
就在这里 不 我现在就说 That goes up here. No I would say now
30% 和 70% 的几率 30% and 70% chance
我们可能正在形成一个交易区间 we're probably forming a trading range.
有时 你会得到一个反转 然后进入一个交易区间 Sometimes you get a reversal and then a trading range.
但我们可能还处于早期阶段 But we're probably in the early stages of this.
但这可能是 But it could be
这是一种实际的反转 sort of an actual reversal.
越来越多的熊正在回购 More and more bears are buying back
因为他们认为我们可能不会 shorts because they believe we're probably not going to
接下来的几个小时里 气温下降了很多 越来越多 go down much for the next couple of hours. More and more
多头正在买入 押注至少会达到 bulls are buying betting that will go at least to the
10 高 而且可能 10 high. And possibly
横向 可能是多头趋势或 sideways possibly a bull trend or
横向盘整 然后进入多头趋势 大盘数字 sideways and then a bull trend. Big ground number
5200. 看起来那就是磁铁 5200. So it looks like that was the magnet.
我们会回到上周的低点之上吗 Will we get back above last week's low
或许吧 正如我所说 当你得到这些 We might. As I said when you get these
大规模抛售 然后出现反转 20% big sell offs and you get a reversal 20%
市场反弹的时间 of the time the market will rally
远远高于这个水平 far above that.
现在第一个目标就是这个 可能会有一些获利回吐 now the first target is this. Might be some profit taking
那里 一些多头可能会获利了结 那里有10个点的利润 there. Some of the bulls might take profits 10 points profit there.
10 低于 14 则为短 10 is short below 14.
不 我不会 有些电脑 Nope I would not. Some computers
双顶 9 14. 其他电脑双顶 double top 9 14. Other computers double top
12 和 14 领口 13 低 12 and 14. Neckline 13 low.
但如果我们突然倒闭 我不会出售 But I would not sell if we suddenly collapse.
交易区间最有可能 因此 如果 Trading range is most likely. So if
我们突然跌破13 可能会有更多的买家 we suddenly break below 13 there probably will be more buyers
比卖家 than sellers. The more
大多头接近高点 更有可能 big bull bars closing near their highs the more likely
这将是一轮多头 但正如我所说 this is going to be a bull trend. But as I said
最有可能的是 我们将进入至少一段时间的交易区间 the most likely thing is we're going to enter a trading range for at least
几个小时 缺口缩小 a couple of hours. Gap down
从开盘开始呈现空头趋势 然后进入区间交易 bear trend from the open then trading range.
你可能会看到反转 空头趋势可能会重新开始 你可能会看到 You can get a reversal and the bear trend can resume. You can get a
反转 然后回调 然后多头趋势远高于 reversal and you get a pullback and then a bull trend far above
那样 但大多数情况下 你会至少横向移动几 that. But most often you'll go sideways for at least a couple
几个小时 有时甚至是一天的剩余时间 of hours sometimes for the remainder of the day.
横盘至少几个小时 横盘至少几个小时 Sideways for at least a couple of hours sideways for at least a couple
几个小时 空头趋势恢复 我们迎来了多头趋势 of hours. Here the bear trend resumed here we got a bull trend
反转 但现在我们可能还处于早期阶段 reversal. But now we're probably in the early stages of this.
多头达到了他们的目标 他们 The bulls got their objective. They
测试了10行 tested the 10 line.
多头卖出 空头做空 押注多头 And the bulls sold and bears shorted betting the bulls
会卖出 现在我们有一个双顶 9 和 15 would sell. Now we have a double top 9 and 15.
有些熊的售价低于 15 Some bears will sell below 15
或低于 13 但我说了什么 or below 13. But what did I say
我们可能处于交易区间 处于交易区间 We're probably in a trading range. In a trading range
交易员会做三件事 他们低价买入 traders do three things. They buy low
他们卖得高 而且他们很快就 they sell high and they take quick
利润 这就是为什么 profits. So that's why
市场上涨了10个点然后停止了 the market went up 10 points and stopped.
多头在10点时获利了结 The bulls took profits at 10 points.
而空头则想高价抛售 And the bears want to sell high.
如果你想按止损单卖出 15 是 If you're looking to sell at the stop order 15 is
交易区间的底部 所以这真的不是一个好位置 the bottom of the trading range. So really not a good location
出售 现在你可以看到可能有 to sell. now you can see there might be
在 15 点低点时 买家多于卖家 more buyers than sellers at the 15 low.
很多时候 60% 的时间 A lot of times 60% of the time
如果市场正在形成多头趋势 if the market is forming a bull trend
他们会在趋势初期做一些非常悲观的事情 以使 they'll do something very bearish early in the trend to make
弱势交易者退出 考验 weak traders exit and it tests the resolve of
强大的交易者 所以我们目前还不知道 the strong traders. So we don't know at the moment
但如果 15 只是一次测试 多头会买入吗 yet if 15 is just a test are the bulls going to buy it
如果他们这样做 那么我们就更有可能 And if they do then it increases the chances we're in a
多头趋势 还是说不会有大量多头买入 bull trend. Or will there not be a lot of bulls buying
我们会再次下跌吗 或许会从这个双顶开始稳步上涨 And will we get another leg down Maybe a measured move from this double top.
因此空头卖出低于15 So the bears selling below 15
他们不是为了抢头皮而卖的 你不能冒险 they're not selling for a scalp. You can't risk
15 分或 20 分 等于 10 分 15 or 20 points to make 10 points
当您在可能的交易区间底部卖出时 when you're selling at the bottom of a probable trading range.
所以 我认为 除非你是一个波段交易者 否则这是一个糟糕的做空机会 So it's I think a bad short unless you're a swing trader
打赌我们会走得更低 betting that we're going a lot lower.
所以双顶 最低 So double top the lowest
中间价位就在这里 这就是颈线 price in between is here. That's the neckline.
因此 一些看跌者会以低于该价格的价格卖出 以寻求这种机会 So some bears will sell one tick below that looking for that.
多头希望低价买入 And the bulls want to buy low.
最好的选择是 The best choice is for
大多数交易者都会设置止损单 所以你想卖出 most traders is stop orders. So you want to sell
高位 并在下K线下方止损 high with a stop below the lower bar.
在这里 您可以低于下限卖出 但不能高价卖出 Here you can sell below the lower bar but you're not selling high.
因此 您不会以低于 15 的价格出售头皮 So you do not sell below 15 for scalp.
我个人会等待出售 I personally would wait to sell.
交易区间最有可能 所以如果我们 Trading range is most likely. So if we do
低于13 我们可能不会跌太多 所以如果你交易 go below 13 we're probably not going a lot below. So if you do trade
如果你确实在市场上卖出 低于 15 就停止 if you do sell here at the market below 15 stop
在这里 我会进行小额交易 最有可能的是 up here I would trade small. Most likely
我们正在形成一个交易区间 因此 如果我们 we're forming a trading range. And therefore if we go
向下 我们可能不会走得太远 down we're probably not going to go very far down.
至于多头 请记住我说过 15 可能是一个空头陷阱 And the bulls remember I said 15 could be a bear trap.
你知道 也许 60% 的多头 You know maybe 60% of bull
从空头趋势反转为多头趋势 trend reversals from a bear trend to a bull trend
将会做一些看跌的事情 will do something bearish
在多头趋势的早期阶段 这就是交易员们正在决定的 early in the bull trend. And that's what traders are deciding.
15 是空头恢复的最后一次尝试吗 Is 15 the final attempt by the bears to resume
空头趋势 还是多头 the bear trend Or are the bulls
他们如此自信 认为自己能够压倒空头 so confident that they're going to overwhelm the bears
并将反转并开始多头趋势 and will reverse up and begin a bull trend
这里是最好的地方 平坦 等待更多信息 Best place here flat and wait for more information.
如果它再次开始这样做 At some point if it starts to do this again
你必须卖掉 但我会等待 you've got to sell. But I would wait for
至少再来一个 我会等到 16 岁成为一只大熊 at least one more I would wait for 16 to be a big bear
在出售之前 K线在斜坡附近关闭 bar closing near a slope before selling.
此外 我认为 不仅 Also I think not only
你想让 16 在斜坡附近关闭吗 你想让它关闭 do you want 16 to close near a slope you want it to close
远低于 13 所以 16 越大 它越接近 far below 13. So the bigger 16 is the more it closes on
斜率越大 空头卖出的越多 the slope the more bears will sell.
现在 空头会进行波段交易还是剥头皮交易 Now will the bears swing trade or scalp
你在空头趋势的底部卖出 You're selling at the bottom of a bear trend
在我们经历了一些横向交易之后 所以 after we've had some sideways trading. So the probability
比我们要低得多 is less that we're going a lot lower.
如果你进行的交易概率不是那么高 If you're taking a trade where the probability is not all that high
这必须是一次剥头皮交易 所以空头很快就会 it has to be a scalp. So the bears will be pretty quick to
如果情况不妙 就退出 get out if this does not go down.
我没有 I did not
做空这个平仓位 如果我们出现反转 short this flat. If we get a reversal
17 或 18 号的保险杠 bull bar on 17 or 18
又要买入了 是抢头皮还是震荡 it will be another buy. Will it be a scalp or a swing
你不知道 至少你想 You don't know. At a minimum you want
10 分 这些条形大约有 10 分高 甚至超过 10 分高 10 points. The bars are about 10 points tall more than 10 points tall.
可能的交易区间 低买 Likely trading range buy low
高价抛售 剥头皮 我们是高还是低 sell high scalp. Are we low or high
我们处于低位 多头想买 但他们想买 We're low. Bulls want to buy but they want to buy
上面有他们能得到的最好的保险杠 above as good a bull bar as they can get.
因此 如果 16 收盘价接近其高点 则将再次买入 So if 16 closes near its high it will be another buy.
确实没有 所以我不会买上面的…… It did not. So I would not buy above...
我说的是 16 比 17 我不会买超过 17 的价格 I said 16 on that 17. I would not buy above 17.
如果我们在下一两根K线出现反转 If we do get a reversal on the next bar or two
它会形成一个楔形 三条腿向下 8 it would be a wedge. Three legs down. 8
13 然后是17或18 13 and then 17 or 18.
空头是否会从上方退出 Do the bears exit above
15 这意味着风险超过 15 That's risking more than
20 点 我会卖出比前一交易日高点高出一倍的头皮大小的股票 20 points. I would get out the size of a scalp above the high of the prior
巴 所以至少 22 个刻度 bar. So at least 22 ticks
或高于 17 个点 42 个点 这些K线图可能 or 42 ticks above 17. The bars might
开始变小 头皮可能会开始 start to get small and scalps might start to
变成 5 分而不是 10 分 因为我们将其转换为 become 5 points instead of 10 points as we convert into a
交易区间 这就是我认为我们要做的 trading range which is what I think we're going to do.
有 60% 的可能性这一切都会 Chances are 60% chance this is all going to
成为交易区间的一部分 即使我们仍在下跌 仍处于空头 be part of a trading range even though we're still going down and we're still in a bear
趋势 当你看到反转 trend. When you get a reversal
就像这样 经常 like that it's often
交易区间的起点 因此 交易区间的顶部可能是 the start of a trading range. So the top of the trading range might be
回到这里 如果我们得到反转 back up around here. So if we get a reversal
这就是回到这个区域的目标 that would be the objective to get back up to this area
再次 在交易区间底部买入 again. Buying at the bottom of the trading range
最好在接近最高点的多头线上方买入 is better to buy above a bull bar closing near its high.
如果你的销量相当强劲 比如15和16 And if you have pretty strong selling like 15 and 16
许多交易者会等待微型双底或两根金条 a lot of traders will wait for a micro double bottom or for two gold bars
在购买之前 before buying.
卖出 反转 你可以看到 Sell up reversals and you can see
很多买入信号线都有问题 它的顶部有一个大尾巴 a lot of the buy signal bars have problems. It has a big tail on top.
这些是狗仔队 这里有一个微型双底 These are dogeys. Here you get a micro double bottom with a
不错的保险杠 这个很容易 给你一个 good bull bar. That one is pretty easy. Here you get a
两根K线反转 下跌和上涨时 你都可以在该K线上方买入 two bar reversal. Down and up you buy above that.
您希望在价格区间的顶部以空头价位以下的价格出售 At the top of the range you're looking to sell below bear bars.
在交易区间内 尾部变得更加明显 In a trading range tails become more prominent.
你往往会遇到很多这样的情况 You tend to get lots of instances where
市场横盘整理至三 四或五根K线 很多 the market sideways to three four or five bars. And a lot of
买入和卖出信号线并不像您希望的那样好 the buy and sell signal bars are not as good as you want them to be.
就像实体太小 或者你 Like the body is too small or you're
在抛售中卖得太低 买得太高 selling too low in the sell off you're buying too high
在反转中 所以你只要耐心等待 in the reversal. So you just be patient.
并等待类似的事情 And wait for something like that.
或者像上面那样 双底 这里更高的 Or above like that a double bottom. Here a higher
低 这里有一个很好的牛栏 low here a good bull bar.
这有点像今天 This is kind of like today.
一根多头线 一个反转 然后稍微低一点 A bull bar and a reversal and a little bit lower.
但到了一天结束的时候 你回头看 你会说 等一下 交易区间可能 But by the end of the day you look back and you say wait a minute the trading range probably
从这里开始 到目前为止 began here. So far it looks
有点像这样 交易区间行为 kind of like this. Trading range behavior
我们跌到了新的低点 新的低点 新的低点 但是 we went a new low new low new low but
整个抛售只是 that entire sell off was just a bare leg in what
成为一个交易区间 became a trading range.
对冲基金将走向何方 很多对冲基金将 Where are the hedge funds going A lot of them will
看看八个低点 然后 look at the eight low and then
他们会看 14 然后说 等一下 如果我买入 8 低 they'll look at the 14 and they'll say wait a minute if I bought the eight low
就在十点 尽管这是一块大空头K线 我还是买了更多 here on ten even though it was a big bear bar and I bought more
下跌五到十分之一后 市场又回到了八个低点上方 five or ten points lower the market went back above the eight low.
我可以在这里第一次买入就能收支平衡 而且还能盈利 I could get out break even on that first buy here and I'd make a profit
在这些较低的买入价上 而这些基金 on these lower buys. And those funds
说 好吧 我会对 13 做同样的事情 我会买 13 are saying okay well I'll do the same with 13 I'll buy the 13
低 下限价单 买入五 十 十五点 low place the limit order buy five ten fifteen points
更低 押注它会回到至少 lower betting that it'll get back to at least
比 13 点低一点 让我能够实现盈亏平衡 a tick above the 13 low allowing me to get out break even
我第一次购买时就获利 而当我购买价格较低的商品时也获利 on my first buy and with a profit on my lower buys.
因此 您可能已经开始对这里的多头有所了解 So you're probably starting to get some scale in on bulls here.
如果你是新手 如果你的账户很小 你不能 If you're a beginner if you have a small account you cannot
这样做 但如果你有一个大账户 这是一种非常好的交易方式 do that. But it's a very good way to trade if you have a big account
并拥有丰富的经验 and a lot of experience.
不好买 类似18 Bad buy similar 18
多头 停止多头订单 多头寻求 bulls stop order bulls bulls looking to
买入止损 希望市场继续上涨 buy with stops want the market to go
高于多头线 收盘价接近最高点 所以也许 above the bull bar closing near its high. So maybe
19. 记住 19. Remember like
我们有80%的机会突破13点的低点 我们可能在这里实现 80% chance we're going to get above the 13 low. We might do it here
可能稍微低一点 但我们会超过 13 的低点 maybe a little bit lower but we're going above that 13 low.
这很重要 因为 And that's important because
这意味着多头正在 it means that bulls are making
空头中的资金 当多头开始 money in a bear trend. And when the bulls start
在空头趋势中持续赚钱 to make money consistently in a bear trend
空头趋势可能开始转变为 the bear trend is probably beginning to convert into
交易区间 并且可能停止空头趋势 a trading range and it's probably stopping being in a bear trend.
这里发生的事情真的很重要 It's really important what's going on here.
看一看 Take a look.
19高 19 high
没有超过13个低点 这是为什么 did not go above 13 low. Why is that
因为空头卖出了更多 Because the bears sold more
比多头买入的更多 空头不希望多头赚钱 than the bulls bought. The bears do not want the bulls to make money.
如果多头开始赚钱 If the bulls are starting to make money
那么空头趋势可能就是 then the bear trend is probably
减弱并可能结束 而空头并不希望出现这种情况 weakening and possibly ending and the bears don't want that.
所以他们压倒了多头 空头有很多 So they overwhelmed the bulls. The bears had a lot of
卖单位于 13 个低点下方 并且成功了 sell orders just below that 13 low and they succeeded.
18 没有超过 13 的低点 所以这是一个迹象 18 did not go above the 13 low so that's a sign
空头势力强劲 此外 多头不会在18以上买入 that the bears were strong. Also bulls would not buy above 18.
空头趋势中连续四根空头条 Four consecutive bear bars in a bear trend.
空头会卖出 所以一些空头卖出了 And bears would sell. So some bears sold
18 高点仅仅是因为它是空头趋势中连续四根空头线 the 18 high simply because it was four consecutive bear bars in a bear trend.
然后其他空头的售价略低于13 And then other bears sold just below 13
押注那里会有很多空头抛售 betting that there would be a lot of bears selling there
试图阻止多头 限价单多头赚钱 trying to prevent the bulls the limit order bulls from making money.
这对空头来说是好事 So that's good for the bears.
所以我们正在测试突破点 So we're testing the breakout point.
16 在 15 以下分解 向左看 16 broke up below 15. Look to the left
它也跌破了 13 现在我们有一个缺口 it also broke below 13. And now we have a gap
回调点（19 高点）和突破点（13 低点）之间 between the pullback the 19 high and the breakout point the 13 low.
这增加了我们实现 And that increases the chances that we're going to reach
测量值向下移动 在向下条的外面 the measurement move down. Outside down bar
19 突破了 18 它超过了 18 19 is outside of 18. It went above 18
18 岁以下 现在 19 and below 18. Now will 19
低于18 如果是这样 那 close below 18 If so that
是空头 19 会收于低点附近吗 is bears. Will 19 close near its low and
远低于18岁 如果是这样 那就增加了 far below 18 If so that increases the chances
我们达到了这一测量移动目标 of us reaching this measurement move target.
这是卖出市场空头趋势吗 Is this a sell the market bear trend
我不会出售市场 特别是如果你有一个 I would not sell the market especially if you have a
小账户 这个机会 small account. The chance of this
继续往下 像这样 continuing down like this
20% 限价单 20%. The limit order
对于电脑来说 他们以 13 点的低价购买 他们以 5 点的低价购买 for computers bought the 13 low they bought more 5 points lower
他们可能会以低于 10 个点的价格买入 甚至可能以低于 15 个点的价格买入 and they bought more 10 points lower they'll probably buy 15 points lower.
其他多头 Other bulls
你和我 我们想买 you and me we want to buy
但只在一个相当好看的保险杠上方 but only above a pretty good looking bull bar.
只有空头才会抛售 And the bears the only ones selling down
我认为 here are I think
可以进行小额交易的交易者使用 traders who can trade small use
宽止损和扩大规模 所以我不会 wide stops and scale in. So I would not
如果你的账户很小 我不会卖 if you have a small account I would not be selling
这里 我仍然认为我们会超过 13 here. Do I still think we're going above the 13
低 是的 但当市场在这里的时候 我说这是80% low I do but when the market was here I said it was an 80%
机会 现在我认为有70%的机会 chance. Now I think there's a 70% chance
我们将突破13点的低点 we're going to get above that 13 low. And the
概率较低 因为多头尝试 probability is lower because the bulls tried on
19 失败了 19 成为了一只强劲的熊 19 and failed and 19 became a strong bear bar
外部下跌的K线 收盘价接近其最低价 且收盘价低于前一K线的最低价 an outside down bar closing near its low and closing below the low of the prior bar.
所以这是突破性的突破 这是大空头的突破 So it's a breakout bar. It's a big bear bar
收盘价接近其最低价 并收盘价低于前一根K线的最低价 closing near its low and closing below the low of the prior bar.
因此 19 是空头突破线 So 19 is a bear breakout bar.
16 是空头突破线 一根大的空头线收盘于其低点附近 16 is a bear breakout bar. A big bear bar closing near its low
收盘价低于前一根蜡烛线的低点 看看左边 它收盘价低于 closing below the low of the prior bar. And look to the left it closed below
之前的低点 17 不是 a prior low. 17 is not
突破线 收盘价低于 a breakout bar. It closed below
16 可是小熊身子 16 but a small bear body.
18 不是空头突破线 没有 18 is not a bear breakout bar. Did not
收盘价低于前一根K线的最低价 close below the low of the prior bar.
对于那些多年来一直听我讲话的人来说 Now for those of you who have listened to me for a number of years
你知道我一直对美联储主席鲍威尔持批评态度 you know I've been very critical of Fed Chair Powell.
特朗普总统 President Trump
只是说了一堆关于他的坏话 just said a bunch of horrible things about him
回到特朗普总统的第一个任期 back in President Trump's first term.
我相信这就是鲍威尔的原因 And I believe that is why Powell
降低利率 并长期维持低利率 lowered rates kept them low for so long
并导致 and it resulted in
债券市场的崩溃 the crash in the bond market.
这是债券图表 我会贴上月度图表 Here's the bond chart. I'll put up a monthly chart.
因此特朗普总统非常批评 So President Trump was very critical
鲍威尔告诉他需要降低利率 而鲍威尔 of Powell telling him he needs to lower rates and Powell
降低利率 ​​我当时相信他降低了利率 lowered rates. I believed at the time that he lowered rates
因为他被 because he was intimidated by
唐纳德·特朗普 当这一切发生的时候 我一直在说 Donald Trump. And when this was happening I kept saying
这太蠢了 他有 this is so stupid. He's got
加息 这太荒谬了 我说 raised rates. This is ridiculous. And I said
这将导致债券市场的重大反转 事实也确实如此 it's going to lead to a major reversal in the bond market which it did.
利率上升了 And interest rates went up.
他们上去就是因为这个 他们上去不是因为 And they went up because of this. They did not go up because of
拜登和他的万亿美元 Biden and his trillion dollar
建设项目 他们没有上去 construction project. They did not go up
因为特朗普的万亿美元减税政策 because of Trump's trillion dollar tax cuts. They went up
因为鲍威尔搞砸了 他保持了人们的兴趣 because Powell screwed up. He kept interest
利率太高了 我们得到了 rates way too long and we got
回弹效应 在债券图表上 a snap back effect. On the bond chart
我们基本上处于交易区间 we've been basically in the trading range
几年来 但我认为我们将会低于平均水平 for several years but I think we're going to go below par.
这条蓝线就是标准K线100K线 我觉得我们会低于标准K线 Par is 100 here this blue line. I think we're going to go below par.
我们可能会先坚持两三年 但我认为在某个时候 We may rally for two or three years first but I think at some point
在未来五年或十年内 我们将会低于那条蓝线 in the next five or ten years we're going to be below that blue line.
这意味着长期利率正在上升 这是事实 And that means long term interest rates are going up. And that's true
无论谁当总统 无论下一任 no matter who's president. Whether the next
总统是民主党人还是共和党人 我认为我们会低于那个蓝色 president is a Democrat or Republican I think we're going to go below that blue
线和利率更高 line and have interest rates more
就像我们过去大部分时间所经历的那样 like what we've had for most of the past
一百年 这太低了 这是 hundred years. This is way too low. This is
低得多 利率与价格相反 much lower. The rate interest rates are the opposite of price.
所以 如果债券价格高 利率就低 这就是 So if the bond price is high the interest rates are low. And this is all
这种行为 所以如果你已经交易了十年 你就会 of this behavior. So if you've been trading for ten years you've been
生活在一个异常的地方 这不正常 living in an outlier. This is not normal.
因此利率和债券价格将会下降 So interest rates the bonds are going to come down here
利率也会上升 但正如我所说 我们可能会达到这个水平 and interest rates are going to go up. But as I said we may come up here
在接下来的几年里 然后就会下降 但我很有信心 当我 over the next several years and then go down. But I'm pretty confident when I go
下来 无论如何 当那是 down. Anyway here when that was
我一直在说鲍威尔是我们有史以来最糟糕的美联储主席 happening I kept saying that Powell is the worst Fed chair that we've ever
有 我还能说他是最差的吗 had. And do I still say he's the worst
我们有哪位美联储主席 我认为他 Fed chair we've ever had I think he
是我们经历过的最糟糕的一次 但我认为他长大了 is the worst one we've ever had. But I think he grew
我觉得他做得还不错 into the job. And I think he's doing an okay job
现在 所以我认为他现在是一位普通的美联储主席 now. So I think he's an average Fed chair now.
我喜欢的是独立 And what I like is the independence
美联储 没有总统 民主党 of the Fed. No president Democrat
或共和党应该 or Republican should
对利率做出短期政治决定 be making short term political decisions on interest rates.
美联储主席的任期是十年 我认为这是一个十年的头寸 The Fed chair is a ten year I think it's a ten year position.
所以他有长远的眼光 我不想 So he has a long term perspective. I don't want
根据下一步做出的决定 decisions made based upon the next
两年后国会选举 所以 congressional election in two years. So
我不希望仅仅因为 I don't want interest rates lowered just because
这会导致股市暴涨 it will create a pop in the stock market.
我认为 I think it's good that
美联储主席是独立的 部分抛售 the Fed chair is independent. And part of the selling
可能是 也许特朗普说了什么不好的话 might be maybe Trump said something bad
再次谈论鲍威尔 令人担忧的是 about Powell again. And the concern is that
如果特朗普开火 if Trump were to fire
鲍威尔 那将会是一场大混乱 Powell it would be a big big mess.
法庭上要花很长时间才能解决 It would take a long time to play out in court.
看来他没有能力这么做 It appears he does not have the power to do it.
但最高法院一直允许 But the Supreme Court has been allowing
总统拥有更多权力 the president to have more power.
早在 20 世纪 30 年代 就有一位民主党人 Back in the 19:30s there was a Democrat
他声称拥有很多总统权力 who was claiming a lot of presidential powers.
富兰克林·罗斯福 特朗普 Franklin Roosevelt. Trump was
几乎和罗斯福的做法完全相反 他们都只是声称 pretty much just doing the opposite of Franklin Roosevelt. Both of them were just claiming
罗斯福为自由派做了许多事 a lot of power and Roosevelt did it for liberal
特朗普这样做是为了保守派事业 所以 causes and Trump's doing it for conservative causes. So it's been
我们已经很久没有这样做了 但这和 a long time since we've had that but it's really no different from
罗斯福在 20 世纪 30 年代所做的事情 what Roosevelt did back in the 19:30s.
你买上面的吗 Do you buy above
20 还记得我说过 第二比第一好吗 20 Remember I said that the second to first of all is good.
我们超过了 18 超过了 20 但是空头K线太多了 We went above 18 we went above 20. But too many bear bars
五根空头K线 而牛线 20 并不强 five bear bars and the bull bar 20 is not strong
足够了 所以我不会在 20 以上买入 如果我们横盘整理一段时间 enough so I would not buy above 20. If we go sideways for a few
然后得到第二个多头条 我会在那之上买入 bars and then get a second bull bar I would buy above that.
空头必须要超过 20 吗 Do the bears have to get up above 20
你知道 你不必这么做 这不是很 You know you don't have to it's not very
看涨 你可以获得 22 个点以上的收益 bullish. You could get up 22 ticks above
20.但是 20. But
我觉得你仍然可以做空 低于21卖出怎么样 I think you could still be short. What about selling below 21
我认为从9开始 I think since 9
我们经历了很多区间交易行为 现在我们得到了 we've had a lot of trading range behavior. Here we got
反转 空头 多头 空头 多头 空头 横向 reversals bear bull bear bull bear sideways
六七个K线 现在我们越来越小了 for six or seven bars. Now we're getting smaller
实体有突出的尾巴 侧面有三根横条 侧面 bodies with prominent tails sideways for three bars sideways
买三块吧 所以我们开始交易 for three bars. So we're getting trading
区间行为 你知道 当 range behavior. And you know when
发生这种情况时 最好不要以较低的价格出售 that happens it's usually better not to be selling at the lower.
而且 我们的价格仍然远低于平均价格 Also we're still far below the average price.
我们不接触的可能性有多大 What are the chances that we do not touch
全天的移动平均线 the moving average all day
只发生过一次 我现在一直在交易 It's only happened once. I've been trading now for
大约40年了 我只见过 我只记得 about 40 years now. I've only seen I only remember
40年中的一天 一年或两年发生过一次 one day in 40 years it happened a year or two
之前 每根K线都低于 ago where every bar was below the
移动平均线 我们一整天都没有触及移动平均线 moving average. We did not touch the moving average all day.
那么我们触及移动平均线的可能性有多大 So what are the chances that we're going to touch the moving average
今天 99.9% today 99.9%.
可能还少于这个数字 只是因为我们的损失太大了 Maybe less than that simply because we're down so big.
但在一天开始的时候 有 99.9% But at the start of the day there's a 99.9%
市场触及移动平均线的机会 chance the market is going to touch the moving average.
如果我们高于移动平均线 市场有 99.9% 的可能性 If we're above the moving average 99.9% chance the market
将会横盘整理或下跌 并触及移动平均线 如果我们低于 will go sideways or down and touch the moving average. If we're below the
移动平均线 至少在开盘时 有 99.9% 的机会 moving average on the open at least 99.9% chance
我们将通过横向或向上移动来触及移动平均线 we're going to touch the moving average either by going sideways or up.
多头需要一个合适的牛栏 Bulls need a decent bull bar.
那么向下测量呢 嗯 那仍然是一块磁铁 What about the measurement down Well that's still a magnet.
如果 22 不是一个特别看涨的指标 And if 22 is not a particularly bullish bar
交易者不会在该价位以上买入 而是会继续在该价位以下买入 traders will not buy above it and will still work down to that
价格 price.
接下来 我们会一路走下去 Next will we get all the way down
今天能达到目标吗 目前 我想也许 to the target today At the moment I think maybe
当它到达这里时 我想我们到达那里的可能性大概是 20% when it was up here I thought maybe 20% chance we'll get there.
现在我们今天实现目标的概率大概是 40% 30% 或 40% Now maybe 40% chance we'll get there today 30 or 40%
机会 我的意思是 我们有 60% 或 70% 的可能性无法实现这一目标 chance. I mean 60 or 70% chance we're not going to get there.
这就是低 And that's that low on the
60 分钟图 4 月 10 日的低点 60 minute chart the April 10th low.
记得我说过 当你出现强势突破 回调时 Remember I said when you get a strong breakout a pullback
反弹之后 市场通常会跌至该低点附近 a rally the market usually comes down to around that low.
这就是一块磁铁 So that is a magnet.
空头希望我们继续下跌 多头希望我们形成 The bears hope we just keep going down. The bulls hope we form
双底并上升 a double bottom and go up.
还有一点 每当你看到空头趋势时 你就会想 天哪 我真的应该 Another point whenever you look at a bear trend and you're thinking gosh I really should
變得短小 get short.
市场 And the market
只是 它没有形成回调 所以你被迫 is only it's not forming pullbacks. So you're being forced to
在当日最低价附近卖出 sell near the low of the day.
这使得做空变得困难 然后当你开始 It makes it hard to get short. And then when you start to get
带有尾部的K线图 许多交易者不想在低价出售 bars with tails a lot of traders don't want to sell at the low.
如果你开始得到较小的品种和尾巴 那就是交易区间 If you're starting to get smaller varieties and tails that's trading range
行为 交易员宁愿在回调或反弹时卖出 behavior. And traders would rather sell a pullback a bounce.
所以现在我不会在市场上卖 So at this point I would not be selling at the market
尽管我们仍然处于非常强劲的空头趋势中 even though we're still in a very strong bear trend.
目前还没有什么可买的 And there's nothing to buy yet.
除非你是一个限价单多头 可以使用非常宽的止损 Unless you're a limit order bull who can use a very wide stop
并扩大规模 and scale in.
如果 22 收盘价接近其最高价 我就会卖空 If 22 closes near its high I would get it out for short.
你可以购买 有两种方式 And you can buy and there are two ways
处理买入 如果收盘价接近最高价 你就以高于一个价位的价格买入 to handle the buy. If it closes near its high you buy one tick above
它的价位很高 而你则在其价位下方一个刻度处设置了止损点 its high and you put a stop one tick below its low.
或者你买入一个高于最高价的股票 并使用较宽的止损位 也许 Or you buy one tick above its high and you use a wide stop maybe
下跌20点 小幅交易 买入更多 20 points down. Trade small and buy more.
在 22 点低点买入更多 低于 5 或​​ 10 点 At the 22 low buy more 5 or 10 points below
更高级的交易者会这么做 初学者 that. More advanced traders would do that. Beginners
如果他们确实在 22 以上买入 则在 22 以下设置止损 if they do buy above 22 put a stop below 22.
而您是在狭窄的空头通道中买入 And you're buying in a tight bear channel.
因此 第一个反转可能是 And therefore the first reversal up will probably be
小幅买入 这意味着任何买入都是抢头皮交易 minor. And that means any buy is a scalp.
对于熊 我会得到 And for the bears I would get
高于接近最高点的多头线 即使 above a bull bar closing near its high. Even though
这可能不会导致多头趋势 而可能只会导致交易区间 this is probably not going to lead to a bull trend it will probably just lead to a trading range.
我还是会出去的 I would still get out.
最高点可能就在这里 所以如果你个子矮 The top of the range could be all the way up here. So if you're short
如果你在这里卖了 你想持有 if you sold anywhere in here do you want to hold
如果市场价格高于你的入场价并一路上涨到这里呢 if the market goes above your entry price and goes all the way up here
我不会 我会在保险杠关闭时出手 I would not. I would get out above a bull bar closing
接近最高价 所以我会在22点以上出场 near its high. So I would get out above 22.
正如我所说 如果你买入高于 22 的股票 我会 And bulls as I said if you buy above 22 I would
设定较宽的止损位 进行小额交易 并设定较宽的止损位 use a wide stop. Trade small and use a wide stop.
如果你按照正常规模进行交易 我会在低于 22 的一个刻度处退出 If you trade to your normal size I would exit one tick below 22.
非常狭窄的空头通道 A very tight bear channel.
我们不太可能从中得到一个真正强大的多头朋友 Unlikely we're going to have a really strong bull friend out of this.
你能按止损单卖出吗 Can you sell at the stop order
低于 22 一个刻度 我不会 One tick below 22. I would not.
假设你是一只熊 你从上面出来 Suppose you're a bear and you exited above
22. 你不是又要卖空了吗 是的 22. Don't you have to get short again You do.
但我们已经接近衡量移动目标 But we're near a measured move target.
22 是相当不错的多头 我不会低于这个价位卖出 22 is a pretty good bull bar. I would not sell below
22. 22 号的时候买家可能比卖家多 22. There may be more buyers than sellers at the 22
低 第二个小时快结束了 low. We're getting near the end of the second hour.
空头想要连续第二次出现大空头 And the bears want a second consecutive big bear bar
收盘价处于低位 他们希望我们能回到同样的潜力 closing at its low. And they're hoping we get down to the same potential
今天的最低点 我们越往下走 low today. The lower we go
我们越有可能实现目标 这是4月10日 the more likely we'll get there. Here's that April 10
低 现在 也许 我不知道 low. now maybe I don't know
我们有30%的机会能到达那里 但如果我们能到达这里 那么也许 30% chance we'll get there. But if we get down to here then maybe
40% 的几率 如果我们到了这里 50% 甚至 60% 的几率 40% chance. If we get here 50% 60% chance.
我们越接近它 就越有可能 The closer we get to it the more likely we'll get
那里还有更多买家吗 there. Are there more buyers
比 22 点低的卖家还多吗 than sellers at the 22 low
我们不知道 我们得看看23号会发生什么 We don't know. We'll have to see what happens with 23 and
24. 我们没有 24. We do not have
停在那个测量的移动目标上 to stop at that measured move target.
但这是一些空头寻求获利了结的领域 But that is an area where some bears will look to take profits
一些多头将开始寻求扩大多头规模 and some bulls will look to start to scale into longs.
你可以看到低 You can see the low
正是这个价格 所以你可以 is exactly at that price. So you can
看到很多计算机都在关注这一有节制的动作 see a lot of computers are paying attention to that measured move.
强劲空头持续时间越长 The longer a strong bear
趋势持续的时间越长 trend lasts the less likely
你会得到一个反转 进入多头趋势 所以更有可能的是 you'll get a reversal into a bull trend. So the more likely
如果出现反转 that if there is a reversal
它只会导致交易区间波动 it'll only result in a trading range.
因此 如果出现反转 任何购买都将 So if we get a reversal any buying will be
可能是剥头皮交易 scalping probably.
有时你会得到 4 或 5 个反转 然后又得到另一个 Sometimes you'll get a reversal for 4 or 5 bars and then another
抛售 然后你就会得到某种双底 一个主要趋势 sell off and then you'll get some kind of a double bottom a major trend
反转 那么你就有40%的机会进入多头趋势 reversal. And then you have a 40% chance of a bull trend.
但目前 我认为我们只有 30% 的机会 But now I would say that there's only a 30% chance that we'll get
今天是多头趋势 所以即使你上涨了5到10根K线 a bull trend today. So even if you rally 5 or 10 bars
很有可能这只是交易区间内的一次反弹 chances are it will simply be a rally in a trading range.
我们在这里聚会了很多K线 但是 Here we rallied for a lot of bars but
这只是交易区间内的多头行情 所以这是 it was just a bull leg in a trading range. So this is
这可能是多头今天能取得的最好成绩 probably the best the bulls can get today.
这里可能性较小 看起来就是这样 Much less likely here. This looks like that.
这里我们先是抛售 然后是上涨或下跌 And here we have a sell off and then a higher or low
重大趋势反转 目前 只有 30% major trend reversal. now only a 30%
我们实现这一目标的概率 如果我们实现了 那么 40% chance that we get that. And if we get it then 40%
导致多头趋势的可能性 多头 chance it will result in a bull trend. Bulls
他们会在接近最高点的多头线上方买入 they will buy above a bull bar closing near its high.
但他们会剥头皮 But they'll scalp.
22 买入合理吗 是的 合理 Was 22 a reasonable buy Yeah it's a reasonable
买入 因此 一些多头会使用非常宽的止损 然后再买入更多 buy. So some bulls will use a really wide stop and then buy more
如果我们得到另一个保险杠 if we get another bull bar.
对于熊来说 And for the bears
如果 22 if 22
不像以前那么乐观 很多空头会卖出 was not as bullish as it was a lot of bears would have sold at the
22 低 但我个人不想卖掉 22 low. But I personally don't want to sell down
给你 我想卖出一手反弹股票 here. I want to sell a rally.
又一次强劲的空头突破 我在这里讨论过这个问题 Another strong bear break out. I talk about that up here.
如果你看到连续的大空头K线收盘接近其低点 If you get consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows
收盘价低于前一根K线 则有 70% and closing below the prior bar you have a 70%
至少有机会在第二回合中取得小胜利 chance of getting at least a small second leg down.
所以如果 24 So if 24
在这里关闭 70% 的可能性是第一个 closes down here 70% chance the first
向上的反转幅度很小 我们至少会迎来第二轮横向或向下的走势 reversal up will be minor and we'll get a second leg at least sideways or down.
如果 24 的底部有一个大尾巴 它 If 24 has a big tail on the bottom which it has
目前 at the moment then there's not a 70% chance of a
第二条腿侧向向下 second leg sideways to down.
Okay.
这与此相比如何 How does this compare to this
这些熊条更大 第二个熊条 These bear bars are bigger and the second bear bar
下面是一条非常小的尾巴 这些熊条较小 a very tiny tail below. These bear bars are smaller
尾巴也更突出 你有很多交易员在卖 and more prominent tails. You have a lot more traders selling
并且更少的交易者出售市场或低于 that and fewer traders selling the market or selling below
24. 我们现在正处于自由落体状态 24. We're in a free fall now.
空头趋势非常强劲 但空头终将结束 Very strong bear trend. But bears will get out
如果我们再看到 22 这样的多头 我认为很多空头在 22 点以上退出 if we get another bull bar like 22. I think a lot of bears exited above
22. 如果他们这样做了 就很难 22. If they did it's hard to get
做空 他们可能会在22以下卖出 对于多头来说 short. They could sell below 22. And for the bulls
如果你使用 you can only be long above 22 if you're using
宽幅止损并扩大规模 如果我们看到另一个多头线 a wide stop and scaling in. If we get another bull bar
收盘接近最高价 比如 25 你会得到 closing near its high maybe 25 you'll get
多头再次买入 但情况就是这样 bulls buying again. But it's like this.
这可能是对最近抛售高潮顶部的一次小幅反转测试 It's probably a minor reversal testing the top of the most recent sell climax.
因此 如果多头出现反转 他们的第一个目标将是 So if the bulls get a reversal their first target will be
23 高 23 high.
我要离开了 我仍然认为我们将进入区间交易 Okay. I'm going to step aside. I still think we're going to turn into a trading range.
它正在成为 It's becoming
可能性较小 但我仍然认为 less likely. But I still think it's
比 50% 的概率要好 我们得横盘几个小时 better than a 50 50 chance. We're going to go sideways for a couple of hours.
嗯 主要是横盘几个小时 但现在 真的 Well mostly sideways for a couple of hours. But now there's really
没什么可买的 我宁愿高点卖 好吧 nothing to buy. And I would rather sell higher. Okay.
Rose 即将接任 祝你今天过得愉快 如果我们继续 Rose is going to take over. Hope you have a good day. If we stay
如此强烈的看跌情绪 最好只寻求反弹卖出 strongly bearish like this it's better only to look to sell rallies
而不是想买 祝你今天愉快 and not look to buy. Okay. Have a good day.
谢谢艾尔早上的评论 Thank you Al for the morning commentary.
自 We've been very bearish since the
开放 尽管K线一和二已经 open even though the bar one and two had
下部影线的尺寸显著 significant size of lower wicks.
所以最终 结果不是反转 而是 So that ended up instead of reversing ended up going
侧向 所以当我看到第三条的时候 它告诉我 sideways. So when I see bar three it's telling me
仍有一些动力 that there's still some momentum there for
熊 然而 它并不是那么好 尤其是 bears. However it's not all that great especially
如果三线全线收出一根非常强劲的熊身 if the bar three were to close a very strong bear body all the way
一直到最低点 你不会看到第四栏 down to the two low. You would not have seen bar four
就像一个保险杠 你会看到第四个保险杠就像 as a bull bar. You would see bar four be just like
第五小节 因为第三小节是 bar five. Because bar three is
大概在第二条中间的位置 sort of kind of in the middle wick of bar two
尽管它显示出了势头 但值得说的是 我们可以卖出 even though it's showing momentum bears saying okay we can sell
第一次回调 所以基本上 他们在寻找第二波反弹 the very first pullback. So basically they're looking for a second leg
下来 所以第一回合是第一和第二 是 down. So the first leg was bar one and two is bar
就在那里 任何多头开始买入 被困在那里 two there. Any bulls started to buy trapped there
熊队以三比四的战绩迎来第二轮比赛 and bears are getting their second leg with three and four.
然后把第四小节作为第二段的一部分 然后暂停 Then take bar four is part of the second leg but then pause
然后它继续下降 所以这是一个 and then it continues to come down. So is this a
第二回合 是的 我会把这当作第二回合 然后继续 暂停一下 second leg Yeah I would take this as a second leg. Continuation then pause
和第三条腿 所以多头有两条腿 所以我会 and the third leg. So bulls got two legs up so I would
从这里重新开始计数 与此同时 start to count here once again. In the meantime
让我先抛开这个问题 但我们可能会去实现 2R 目标 let me get rid of this for a minute but we might be going to the 2R target
就在这里 我会把它放在 which is here. I'll put it on the
图表 但我想清理一下 这样我就可以告诉你为什么 chart but I want to clean this up so I can show you why
这很重要 基本上 我测量了下方的缺口 然后我们得到了 this was important. So basically I measured there was a gap down and we're getting
趋势从开放开始 我得到了确认 a trend from open and I'm getting confirmation with
第五小节 第二条腿开始下降 bar five the second leg is coming down
相当强 所以我想我可以从 pretty strong. So I'm thinking I can measure this from the
周四最后一根K线的收盘价到……我第一次 close of the last bar on Thursday to the close of... first I
测量时是开放的 但实际上我们下降了 measured it as the open but we actually came down
并标记了它 但我们在第 18 栏以下关闭了 所以我在寻找 and tagged it but then we closed below bar 18. So I'm looking
因为我追求的不是反转 而是持续下跌 所以我说 for rather than reverse I'm looking for continuation down. So then I said
你知道吗 我想我会收盘 然后我就继续卖出 you know what I think I'm just going to take the close of that bar and I kept selling
达到这个目标 所以现在我们有点延伸 into that target. So now we're kind of extending
这不再有效 所以 and this is no longer valid. So there is
这些是每小时最低的 these else on the hourly low.
那么这是... So that is... this was
这是星期四 这是星期三 这是星期二 Thursday this was Wednesday this was Tuesday.
因此 目标是周二的低点 So the Tuesday low is the target.
所以我在寻找这个 我也在寻找 So I'm looking for that. I'm also looking
在其他一些目标市场 我所做的就是卖出 at a bunch of other targets. All I'm doing is selling
但我想看看这些磁铁是否会被到达 but I want to see if these magnets will be reached.
所以我们有 So here we have
较快的移动平均线位于 the faster moving averages moved underneath the
weevop 我们有一个交易区间的分解 您还可以 weevop and we have a trading range breaking down. You can also
把这个放低 你不必从那里测量 这很好 take this low. You don't have to measure it from there which is fine
但我比较保守 所以我们先往下走 然后再往后退 but I'm conservative. So we move down there and we pull back
最后一次裸露实体靠近时 我从那里测量 所以我 at the last bare body close I measured from there. So I
已经达到了2R 现在我们快要达到3R的目标了 got the 2R. Now we're getting the 3R target just about.
我们可能会继续抛售 但我确信股价会反弹 所以我想看看 We could continue to sell but I'm sure we're going to bounce here. So I want to see the
6275 测试 看看我们是否可以在实际反弹之前得到它 6275 test and see if we could get that before we actually bounce.
所以我们拭目以待 然后是 So we'll see. Then there is
2R 目标 a 2R target from the
13 低点 所以这是回调 13 low. So that's pullback in this
裸旗 双顶裸旗为第 16 条 bare flag. Double top bare flag is bar 16.
确认一下 你甚至可以在16以下卖出 我会卖出 Confirmation you can even sell below the bar 16. I would have sold
在第 15 条下方 我从今天早上就开始卖了 所以 underneath bar 15. I've been selling since this morning so
我继续添加 至于我的 I kept adding. As it comes down to my
目标 我获利了结 留下一个跑者 所以这是你的 targets I'm taking profit and leaving a runner. So here is your
差不多就是2R 58.75 just about 2R there. 58.75
我们最终将 We will eventually
拉回并横盘 好吧 如果今天 pull back and go sideways. Well what if today
继续下降 我认为它需要向我们展示一些 continues to come down I think it needs to show us some
疲劳程度 你可以看到 K线图并没有变小 而是 exhaustion here. You can see bars instead of getting smaller they're actually
变得越来越大 这是一个好兆头 但是我们还要继续下去吗 getting bigger which is a good sign but are we going to continue
这最终会是一场疲惫吗 第一回合 拉回 Could this be finally an exhaustion And leg one pullback
第二回合 回撤 第三回合 我们最终能做到吗 leg two pullback leg three can we finally
反转回移动平均线 如果我们真的反转回移动平均线 reverse back to the moving average If we do reverse back to the moving average
如果只是小幅回调 那么我们可能会 and if it's a shallow pullback then we might go and
评估22号区域 这是三个空头条 所以第一个 assess the bar 22 area. That's three bear bars. So the first
卖出区就在这里 sell zone is here.
我会看看这里是否有熊 I would look to see if the bears would be present here
然后卖掉 如果我们卖掉一点 那就结束了 and sell. If we sell a little bit and then that ends
成为一个真正优秀的……假设我们团结起来进入那个红色区域 up becoming a really good... Say we rally up into that red zone
到第 22 条然后我们卖出 to bar 22 and then we sell
但我们有缺口保险杠 我们得到了第二条腿 but we have gap bull bars. And we get the second leg up
对于看涨者来说 这意味着我们并没有真正尊重那里的情况 这只是一次回调 for bulls. That means we're not really respecting there. It's just a pullback.
我会寻找 I would look for
K线 14 测试区 K线 14 K线 bar 14 test area bar 14 bar
12 13栏低 像那个区域 被测试 12 bar 13 low like that area be tested
然后我会寻找双顶 也许是横向 and then I would look for a double top and maybe sideways
然后从那里下去 and then go down from there.
但如果回调至 But if the pullback to moving
平均并进入上阻力区是 average and into the upper resistance zone is
相当强劲 有多个条状物 可能有三 五条 pretty strong with multiple bars maybe three five
四 六 七条杠 我不知道 很强 four six seven bars I don't know strong
多头反弹 这可能会造成回调 bull rally up that could create a pullback into
在这个区域 从移动平均线略微回调 我们可以得到一个 this area shallow pullback from the moving average and we could get a
反转回来 那么我会 reversal back up. So then I would
可能寻找第六条或第六条以下的地方 probably look for somewhere around bar six or low of bar
测试了四个 大概在某个地方 所以我把它放在图表上 four tested somewhere up there. So I'll put that on the chart
也一样 as well.
我有一些上市前的支撑耳塞 I had some support buds pre market
卖出 无论如何 这是一面熊旗 sold and that was a bear flag anyway.
您可以看到 我们在那里出现了双顶 然后回落 再回升 You can see we had a double top there came back down went back up again.
所以大家都认为这是一面牛旗 也许确实如此 So everybody thought that this was a bull flag. Maybe it was.
你必须看看午夜 That you have to look at the midnight
抱歉 亚洲开盘 各位 I'm sorry the Asia Open everybody
实际上卡在那里了 然后就下来了 所以又一个熊旗 actually got stuck there came down. So another bear flag
基本上 而且它一直在下跌 所以这是熊旗形 basically. And it keeps coming down. So there's the bear flag
空头通道向下 我们将在那里形成另一个双顶 bear channel down. And we'll make another double top there and
抛售 因此 多头没有任何机会 selling down. So there is nothing there for bulls.
所以这些是……我们最终搬到了下面 我说 哦 就这样了 So these is... we ended up moving below this. I said oh that's it.
我们实际上正在下面移动 We are actually moving underneath
上周的区间 星期一 星期二 星期三 星期四 last week's range Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday.
这周比较短 所以我们的走势低于上周的区间 It was a short week. So we moved underneath last week's range.
所以我们正朝着目标前进 第一个浅目标 So we're heading towards the targets. First shallow target
是 如果市场试图再卖出一些怎么办 is what if the market tries to sell some more
重新站起来 测试这些高点 现在 Get back up and test these highs. now
高度很重要 that high is important.
和 And
这些 these
是的 我所知道的是 I mean all I know is that
我们可以继续下降 we could continue to come down some more
如果空头想要关闭这些 if bears want to close these
缺口 但买家正在这些水平附近等待 gaps but buyers are waiting around those levels.
所以我把它们放在图表上 这就是 RTH 每小时 So I'll put them on the chart. That is the RTH hourly.
我们正准备标记那个 3R We're just about to tag in that 3R.
然后从这里开始 2R And then the 2R from here.
大家好 我刚刚看了看 Discord Hello everybody. Just looked at the Discord.
我希望你有... I hope you had...
这真是令人悲伤……事实上确实如此 It was a sad... it really was actually.
刚刚庆祝了复活节 然后 Just celebrated the Easter and then
教皇 我们输了 the Pope we lost
教皇 这是一个重大损失 Pope. And that's significant loss
为了世界 所以我确信这就像 for the world. So I'm sure it's like
人们不知道该如何感受 大多时候是悲伤 people don't know how to feel. Mostly sad.
但 But
我想 你知道 我不知道该说什么 这很难 I guess you know I don't know what to say. It's tough.
不管怎样 振作起来吧 Anyway so cheer up.
生活仍在继续 Life goes on.
虽然我听起来很冷漠 但生活还要继续 Although I sound cold but life goes on for us.
好消息是波动性已经下降 The good news is that volatility is down.
这是我们目前唯一能做的事情 否则 这真的是一个 That's the only thing going for us at the moment. Otherwise it was really a
我想 对于每个人来说 这都是一个艰难的周末 tough weekend I think for everyone.
我的意思是 它正在稳步下降 I mean it is moving down steadily.
你可以说这是一个小的回调空头通道 而且相当 You could say that it's a small pullback bear channel and a rather
陡峭的河道 但也不是那么陡峭 所以它有点移动 steep channel but it's not all that steep. So it's kind of moving
井然有序 我正在寻找 2R in an orderly fashion. I'm looking for the 2R
测试一下 所以 4 月 9 日是 to test it. So April 9th is
就在这里 是的 here. Yeah.
我的意思是 我们能一路走下去吗 我们现在 I mean can we go all the way We're now
尝试测试这个低点 trying to test this low.
还能再降点吗 Can it come down more
哎呀 Oops.
就在这里 我 This low here. I
不信 那可真不少 don't believe so. That's a lot.
你的目标可能是 5 000 但是 You're probably targeting 5 000 but
我们即将 we're coming closer to
这些... these...
好了 我们已经到了第二个小时的结束 所以这是第三个小时 Well we are at the end of the second hour. So this is the third hour.
我们得到了很好的后续结果 We're getting a nice follow through.
我们应该能够测试 46.75 We should be able to test possibly 46.75
47. 47.
但最终我们都会回调 看看这里发生了什么 But eventually we're going to pull back. Now look what happened here.
K线 25 K线很强劲 但突然有 Bar 25. Pretty strong bar but suddenly there are
买家在K线收盘时 记得我说过 当K线 buyers at the close of that bar. Remember I said when that bar was
我说 这最终会是某种 coming down I said could this be finally some sort of
疲惫 因为如果空头真的这么想 他们就会突然 exhaustion Because if the bears think that suddenly they're getting
一个很大的K线 比如25 上次 a really large bar like 25. Last time
类似大小的条是第 15 条 a bar similar size was bar 15.
一些交易员 一些看跌者会认为 也许我们应该开始获利了结 因为 Some traders some bears will think maybe we should start to take some profit because
可能不会下降 虽然正在下降 但 that may not come down. Although it is coming down but it
现在造成了一些混乱 我们仍然有目标 我认为 created some confusion now. We still have targets. I think
即使一些空头开始获利了结 even if some bears start to take profit
这是后续行动 他们可能会坚持 that's a follow through. They're probably going to hold
另一面旗帜 三条横线的旗帜 another flag. Okay three bar flag.
所以它可能会继续下降 所以 2R 是 So it's probably going to continue to come down. So 2R is
58.75 我希望看到它在反弹之前受到测试 58.75. I like to see that tested before bouncing.
它会反弹吗 嗯 混乱已经造成了 Could it bounce Well the confusion is already created.
一些多头已经在 25 的收盘价买入 现在他们被套牢了 Some bulls already bought the close of 25. Now they're stuck
以上 第 26 条 那么你如何衡量呢 above. Bar 26. So how do you measure that
我一般喜欢从那里测量 I generally like to measure from there
把我的停止点放在那里 这就是 1R 这就是 2R 目标 put my stop there so that is the 1R and that is the 2R target.
他们可能会测试 58.75 They're probably going to test the 58.75.
他们很可能会测试 58.50 Most likely they will test the 58.50.
但是 But what about
多头 嗯 很多多头都陷入困境 the bulls Well a lot of bulls are stuck
高于26 所以他们会开始买入 他们知道 above 26. So they're going to start buying. They know that
这是此设置的 2R 第 13 栏 this is a 2R from this set up. Bar 13.
以16突破 这也是2R Break out with 16. This is also 2R
从这个标志开始 所以他们会开始在这里购买 因为 from this flag. So they're going to start buying here because
他们被困在那里 他们正在寻找某种 they're stuck up there. They're looking for some kind
达到收支平衡 所以他们希望能把市场推向那个水平 of a break even. So they're hoping they could bring market up there.
好吧 幸好我不是个傻瓜 我不是 Well good thing I'm not bull. I'm not
保持在26以上 它还在下降 我们仍然 stuck above 26. It's still coming down. We still have
一些目标位可能下跌 这是我在以太坊上的目标位 some targets to downside. This was my target on the ETH.
ETH 仍在制造 ETH is still making
它会往下掉 现在你可以标记它 那将是你的 its way down. Now you can tag that. That would be your
1R 就从那里开始 他们试图休息一下 1R from there. They try to get a break.
他们试图反转局势 所以多头实际上 They try to get a reversal. So the bulls actually
确实缩小了缺口 但随后他们开始获利了结 did close that gap. But then they start taking profits.
他们希望这能让他们再获得一条大腿 They hope that this would go up and give them another large leg
因为他们缩小了缺口 但后来他们被困住了 所以我测量了 because they closed the gap. But then they got trapped. So I measured
并将其投射到 ETH 上 我们实际上可以移动 this and projected down on the ETH. We could actually move
降至 51 30 75 down to 51 30 75.
30 75 是所有方式 30 75 is all the way
这下面的某个地方 所以它还在下落 somewhere down here. So this is still coming down.
有人被困在那里吗 这里没人买东西 Anybody stuck there No one's buying here.
他们可能会等待 3R 目标 然后 They might wait for 3R target and then
购买 那么这将是他们的盈亏平衡点 buy. Then this would be their break even.
听 Listen
我看到一块25的金条 我永远不会买 我不在乎 I see a bar like 25. I'm never going to buy it. I don't care
如果还有其他 if there is other
空头 这可能是获利了结 而不是真正的多头进入 bears. That could be a profit take and not actually bulls are coming in.
像这样的动作 3个熊条 A move like this 3 bear bars
你买的第一个保险杠 一开始就不是一个好的信号K线 and the first bull bar you buy and it's not even a good signal bar to begin with
你肯定会被困在上面 那是一面熊旗 you're bound to trap above there. That is a bear flag.
那你该怎么办 你最好退出 So what do you do You better exit
而损失较小 卖出 然后去买 while the losses are small and sell instead and go for a
1R 2R 甚至可能是 3R 目标 1R 2R maybe even 3R target.
我不会去测量它 但你应该知道为什么 I'm not going to measure it but you kind of got the idea why.
多头正试图买入 1R 2R 3R Bulls are trying to buy into the 1R 2R 3R
现在因为他们陷入困境 他们想更接近 now because they are stuck. They want to get closer to
26 个低点或介于两者之间 所以这将是 26 lows or somewhere in between. So this would be
就在这里 61 75 是他们的 here. 61 75 would be their
仍然保持收支平衡 但你有点像赌博 break even still. But you're kind of gambling
因为你不知道多头是否在买入 there because you don't know if the bulls are buying.
这只是为了让多头陷入困境 他们只是想尽量减少 This is just to trap bulls devastated. They're just trying to minimize
他们的损失 所以我更喜欢看到好看的 their losses. So I prefer to see good looking
在我开始购买任何东西之前 先检查一下保险杠 bull bars before I start buying anything.
但现在有点 But now there is a bit of a
压力 但你怎么知道这是一个好的压力 pressure but how do you know this is a good pressure
多头压力很大 你不知道 Good bull pressure. You don't know.
仍然非常看跌 空头可以通过收盘继续保持势头 It's still very bearish. Bears can continue to momentum by closing
空头实体位于 28 号影线中点下方 a bear body below the midpoint of bar 28 wick
然后甚至可能跌到这里 这将是空头的势头 and then maybe even down here. That would be a momentum for bears.
所以你必须等待 看看多头是否真的进入市场 So you kind of have to wait to see if the bulls are actually coming into the market.
我不处于 I'm not in the position of
买任何东西 空头知道多头被困在 buying anything. Bears know that bulls are stuck above
26 他们正在失败 所以他们想要 26 and they're losing. So they want
继续下降 to continue to come down.
这是来自这个的 3R This is the 3R from this
辉光设置 Glowback setup.
我在那里有 3R 正在寻找 I had 3R there. Looking for a little
稍微低一点 至少 bit more down. At least around
46 75 47区 46 75 47 area.
或许 Maybe
在那个区域附近 我们才找到一些 around that area before we find some
买家 对于这面旗帜 buyers. For this flag
这是 3R 他们正在努力实现 4R this is the 3R and they're trying to get to the 4R.
如果 28 未能收于该水平以下怎么办 如果 What if 28 failed to close below it What if
29 没能关上熊身 29 fails to close a bear body
然后我们开始倒车 我们慢慢地开始倒车 Then we start to reverse. We slowly start to reverse.
事情可能会变得更加 Things can get even more
如果真的开始突破 51 则看涨 bullish if we actually start to get above 51
67 75 就像 67 75 区域一样 67 75. Like 67 75 area.
68. 说 68 68. Say 68.
这意味着我们可以买入回调 甚至 That means we can buy the pullback and go even
再往上一点 我想看看这个K线会去哪里 further up high. I'm looking to see where this bar is going to
接近 空头第二次试图继续推进 如果它失败了 close. Second time the bear is trying to get the follow through. If it fails with
3R 29 我们将开始看到多头 3R 29 we're going to start seeing bulls.
市场将努力回到 Market will try to get back up to the
27 高 26 27 高 27 high. 26 27 high.
我们准备好扭转这种局面了吗 Are we ready to reverse this
我还不知道 还在下降 I don't know yet. Still coming down.
我们距离 We are so close to the
周二的最低点是 51 46 75 Tuesday's low 51 46 75.
或者 47 我可能就差一个刻度了 Or 47. I could be off there one tick.
所以我不会开始买任何东西 So I wouldn't start to buy anything.
让它落下来 Let it come down.
现在终于有了K线 实体越来越小了 Now finally we're getting bars. Bodies are getting smaller.
我们开始得到影线 你可以看到28 29和 We started to get wicks. You can see 28 29 and
30 是微楔底 所以也许 30 are micro wedge bottom. So maybe
我们可能会有一些买家 但我不知道 we might be getting some buyers here. But I don't know.
我想看看这家K线怎么关门 它会不会很好看 I want to see how this bar is going to close. Is it going to be a good looking
多头信号 如果实体太小 bull bar by signal If the body is too small
我可能不会碰它 I probably wouldn't touch it.
但有时你得到的只是一个悲伤的小 But sometimes all you get is one sad little
十字星 然后就反转回来了 我不知道 doji and it just reverses back up. I don't know.
如果收盘看跌 If it closes bearish
这意味着... 我的意思是你可以看到更小的条形 that means... I mean you can see smaller bars.
如果空头的压力正在减弱 可能 If the pressure is waning for bears possibly
如果这样结束 那么我们仍然可能会看到一些 if it closes like this then we could still start to see some
多头 我们现在处于一个非常好的位置 我们可能会开始看到一些 bulls. We're in a really good place here that we could start to see some
买家 或者我们会继续 buyers. Or we're going to keep coming
下一个目标实际上是 down and the next target is going to be actually
99 50 99 我们拭目以待 99 50 99. We'll see.
我仍在追踪止损 I'm still trailing the stop.
我仍在等待空头的后续走势 还没准备好买入 I'm still looking for follow through from bears. Not ready to buy
什么都行 还没准备好退出 但我正在管理风险 anything. Not ready to exit. But I'm managing the risk
所以我降低了风险 以防它突然开始反转 so I lower the risk in case it starts to reverse back up suddenly.
我不想签那么多合约 I don't want to be in with so many contracts
因为这样更容易 because it's easier to
退出某件迅速反转的事情 exit out of something that quickly reverses with
一份合约或十份合约左右 a one contract or so than 10 contract.
甚至五个 Or even five.
超过10份合约 Than 10 contract.
甚至五个 Or even five.
我想你明白了 我要把它处理掉 I think you got the idea. I'm going to get rid of this.
所以我们拿到了 它能来吗 So we got that one. Could it come
下降更多 是的 down more Yep.
瞧 我刚才不在那儿了 K线越来越小了 See I was off there. Bar is getting smaller.
对于狼来说这是个好消息 Good news for wolves.
好吧 我们开始吧 我们可能会看到一些 Al here we go. We might see some
买家终于进来了 buyers coming in finally.
不是一个好的买入信号线 30但它是 Not a good buy signal bar. 30 but it is
发出信号 K线开始变小 signaling that. Bar started to get smaller.
而且它确实...可以带来 And it is... it can bring
买家 所以这将是 buyers in. So this would be
熊很快就会恢复 现在如果我们 bears quickly recovering. Now if we do
以强势看涨结束此条 尤其是在 29 以上 close this bar strongly bullish especially above 29
许多人将从这个层面来衡量 many will measure from that level.
他们将选择那里的 1R And they are going to go for 1R which is there.
这是我最初的 So that would be my initial
目标 target.
而不是得到一个K线 Instead of getting one bar.
所以这已经...如果你从 30 测量 So this would already... if you measure from the 30
接近 这样我们就能很快到达 2R 你也可以使用 close that would get us to the 2R very quickly. You can also use
那就 快速进行剥头皮交易 并期待价格回落 that. Quickly scalp there and expect price to come back down
接近30岁 但到了 closer to 30. But by the time
如果你进去就太晚了 所以我宁愿选择那个 you enter it is going to be too late. So I prefer to take that.
所以这就是你可以采取的一半 R 然后它可以上升到这里 So that would be half R you could take and then it could go up to here.
当我们开始让卖家 When we start to get sellers around
28 号的开局 他们想把它带回来 the open of 28 they would want to bring it back
跌至30高点 但如果多头真的 down to the bar 30 high. But if the bulls actually take out
K线28号开门 the bar 28 open
这意味着我们将会走得更高 that means we are going to go a lot higher.
那么我会测量这个 So then I would measure this
旗帜 也许是最后的旗帜 然后我会寻找 flag final maybe flag. Then I would look for
价格就此平仓 然后前往 a price to close there. Then go to
这里 我们可能会有一些获利回吐 导致价格回落 here. We might get some profit takers bringing price back down
到 28 是开放的 然后我们可以反弹并得到 to the 28 is open and then we could bounce and get
1R 目标 因此 目前多头正在尝试 the 1R target. So now bulls are trying
利用这一点 这意味着他们必须首先超越 to exploit this. That means they have to first get above the
门槛就是那条绿线 如果他们能到达那里 threshold which is that green line. If they can able to get there
我知道有卖家在等待 I know there are sellers waiting starting from
这条浅绿灰色的线一直到 this light green gray line all the way to the
绿线 即使开盘价为 28 他们 green line. Even to the open of 28 they are
等待出售并将其带回糟糕 waiting there to sell and bring it back down to the bad
买入信号线 30 个高点 或者至少 buy signal bar 30 highs. Or at least the
接近30 因为他们仍在卖出 但 close of 30. Because they were selling still but
我警告过你那里有一个微楔形底部和K线 I warned you there is a micro wedge bottom there and the bars
正在变小 这对多头来说是好事 但是 are getting smaller. This is good for the bulls but
其他多头需要看到好的确认意义 other bulls they need to see good confirmation meaning
多头色彩非常强烈 因此他们可以开始购买 very strong bull colors so they can start to buy.
尤其是他们希望看到 3 条空头线 如果多头 Especially they want to see 3 bear bars if the bulls
可以真正消除28个开放区域 他们这样做 can actually take out the 28 open. They do that
这意味着他们处于剥削模式 that means they are in the exploitation mode and
他们会尝试至少达到一半的 R 然后 they are going to try to get to the half R at the very minimum and then
他们会试图获得1R 那么空头怎么办 那些空头会 they are going to try to get 1R. So what about the bears Those bears will
准备以 66 25 和 7 的价格出售 get ready to sell at 66 25 and 7
在该地区之前实现收支平衡 in the area before to get break even.
但这是一个好 But is it a good
是时候出脱你的空头头寸了吗 如果K线关门了 time to exit out of your shorts If the bar closes
非常强劲 是的 你应该这么做 但即使我们走得更高 very strong yeah you should. But even if we go higher
一些空头将开始抛售 因为其中许多 some bears will start to sell because many of those
仍然保持 其他人则试图将其保持在果岭以下 still be holding. Others are trying to keep it below the green
线路 这样他们就可以再次将其反转 所以这非常 line so they can reverse it back down again. So it's very
对于多头来说 重要的是他们能够首先收于绿线上方 important for bulls that they can close above the green line first.
这将给他们足够的压力 That will give them enough pressure to
收盘价高于 28 开盘价 close above the 28 open.
然后我们很快就能到达 66 25 66 50 Then we would quickly get to the 66 25 66 50
区域 所以我想看看熊会做什么 area. So I want to see what the bears are going to do
给你 我已经雕刻好了 我留下了一份合约 我雕刻 here. I've already sculpt. I left one contract I sculpt
和另一份 我还持有两份合约 with the other one. I was still holding 2 contracts
对于 3R 其价格为 46 75 及更低 for 46 75 and lower for this 3R.
但我仍然持有 因为我看不到多头在 But I'm still holding because I don't see a bull bar closing above the
门槛 因此 如果空头想要的话 它仍然可以降低这一水平 threshold. So bears can still bring this down if they wanted to.
但一旦我开始看到保险杠关闭 尤其是 But once I start to see bull bars closing especially
28号开盘以上 我就会出局 above the 28 open I will be out.
他们试图利用上三分之一 They're trying to utilize the upper third
在这个小的交易区间内出售 of this small trading range to sell and
将其降至 30 高点或 29 bring it down to the 30 high or 29
至少接近了 close at the very least.
如果他们失败了 我们突然开始出现保险杠 那么 If they fail and suddenly we start to get bull bars then
那些空头将不得不等待第一批多头获利 those bears are going to have to wait for first bulls to take some profit
这里 这里 甚至可能在这里才卖出去 here here maybe even up here before they sell.
现在他们正试图把它留在家里 这就是 now they're trying to keep it in the house which is this
交易区间就在这里 他们正试图收盘形成空头 trading range here. And they're trying to close a bear body as close
尽可能达到 29 的收盘价或 30 的高点 as possible to the 29 close or the 30 high.
所以这就是为什么我 So this is why I am
拿着运行者 只有一个 holding a runner just a one
合约 因为如果我们开始关闭以下空头实体 contract. Because if we start to close bear bodies below
30 号收盘价和 31 号开盘价 我们可以 the close of 30 and open of 31 we could
继续下降 所以我需要看看谁会赢 continue to come down more. So I need to see who's going to win this.
那我就去那边 现在 Then I'll go with that side. now
空头仍然希望能够在这里卖出 the bears are still hopeful that they can sell here.
但一旦他们看到K线收盘价超过 28 But once they see the bar closes above 28
打开后 它们会停留一会儿 open they will stop for a while.
他们将不得不让多头获得一些利润 They're going to have to let bulls get some profit.
许多人已在收盘时或 31 以上退出 Many already exited at the close or above 31.
这就是我们得到这个的原因 That's why we're getting this
第二个保险杠 瞧 我们只是 second bull bar. See we just
让28号门打开 所以这是另一个 let the 28 open. So that was another
空头出售并减少损失的地方 place for bears to sell and minimize their losses.
他们仍然可能收盘看跌 They could still close the bar bearish below
中点 这甚至会给他们更多 the midpoint. And that would even give them more
兴奋地将其进一步降低 excitement to bring it down further
达到较低的门槛 那么多头队怎么办 to the lower threshold. Then what about the bulls
谁在 31 以上买入 Who bought above 31
那么 他们就会以较低的三分之一的价格购买 Well they're going to then buy at the lower third
同一根金条 你看 你买入的价格比 of the same bar. Look you bought about one tick above
31 因为 31 的实体在这个和那个之上闭合 而你 31 because 31 body closed above this and that. And you were
尝试获得一些目标 突然这个标准就下降了 trying to get some targets and suddenly this bar comes down.
你以 31 的下三分之一买入 并在之前实现盈亏平衡 You buy at the lower third of 31 and you break even before
它会进一步下降 到目前为止 我们还没有 it comes down further. So far we're not pulling
一直到31 all the way down to the 31
低 那件事实际上发生在前几天 low. That happened actually the other day.
就在这里 看 我们 here. Look we
却封闭在了强熊身躯之上 actually closed above the strong bear body.
所以多头确实想去那里 但看看发生了什么 每个人都买入了高于 So bulls actually want to go there. But look what happened. Everybody bought above
强势标准 尽管它达到了1R目标 the strong bar. Even though it reached the 1R target
那里空间不大 令人失望 there was not much of a space there. It disappointed.
所以他们测量了50%和下三分之一 一般来说 我喜欢看到更低的 So they measured the 50% and the lower third. Generally I like to see lower
第三次测试 由于只下降了50% third tested. So since it only came down to 50%
他们买了 我没必要买 我正准备在那里买 they bought it. I didn't have to buy. I was getting ready to buy there
达到与下跌前的回调持平 但是 to break even with the pullback before it came down. But what
确实如此 嘿 我们仍然看好 我们已经达到了 it did hey we're still bullish. We already reached
1R 我们会降价 并在 50% 时获得所有买单 the 1R. We're going to come down and we're going to get all the buy orders at the 50%.
由于您没有购买订单 因此现在我们 Since you don't have a buy order there now that we're
这次又回升到上面 你可以取消这个买单 going back up again this time above you can cancel this buy order
因为你没有采取应对风险的行动 所以现在我明白了 because you didn't act to your risk. So now I see
它正在上涨 实际上 我还用它又签了一份合约 it going up. I actually added another contract with that.
然后我就开始雕刻 这就是我的目标 And I start to sculpt there. And then this was my target.
所以我在那里雕刻 你看 它本来可以掉下来的 So I sculpt there. See it could have come down
到这里 所以我会标记 to here. So I would mark the
50% 和 33% 50% and then the 33%. Somewhere in here
我会在 33 点左右下买单 这个 I would have a buy order or at 33. This one was so
浅浅地说 哦 多头肯定想涨 这是 shallow said oh bulls are definitely wanting to go up. This is
我需要取消这个 因为我从来没有进入第二个 where I need to cancel this because I never entered with the second
像缩放一样进入 我已经……它已经修复了它 entry like scaling in. I'm already... it already fixed it
对我来说 所以我只是要添加另一份合约 for me. So I'm just going to add another contract.
但大多数时候你会回调 所以这就是 But most of the time you get pullback. So that's how
我知道...看到那里发生了什么吗 I know that... see what happened there
他们还在继续前进 这对多头来说真是太好了 他们 They are still going. So good for the bulls. They're
66 205 66 205.
他们确实关闭了 32 K线 实体高于 28 They did close the bar 32 body above the 28
开放 这对空头来说是个问题 open. That is a problem for bears.
尽管它看上去正在出售 Even though it looks like it's selling.
但这对熊来说却是一个问题 为什么呢 But it is a problem for bears. Why is that
因为实体闭合了 所以现在多头……等一下 Because the body closed. So bulls now... wait a minute.
我们已经买下这个并且关闭了 32 号K线 We have bought this and we closed the bar 32.
这是位于开盘价上方的突破线 That is a breakout bar above the open of this.
这意味着如果你卖掉它 你会得到 So that means if you sell this you're going to get
可能陷入困境 因为这是他们最起码想去的地方 probably stuck because this is where they want to go at the very minimum.
66 25 他们甚至不能到这里 66 25. They can't even go up to here
如果他们愿意的话 这只是初步的 if they wanted to. That's just a preliminary
多头获利了结 profit taking for bulls.
如果这 32 个门没有关闭 If the 32 weren't closed
一头多头的身躯 我会说 好吧 a bull body there I would have said okay
空头有机会卖出它 将其打压 bears got a chance to sell that bring it down.
所以这些熊现在正在苦苦挣扎 So those bears are like struggling now.
他们看到 32 号K线 K线身闭合 即使它只高出一个刻度 They see the bar 32 body closed even if it's a one tick above
这对他们来说是个问题 他们知道 it's a problem for them. They know
这个数字可能不会下降 反而可能会上升 that this may not come down and instead it could go up.
主体 32 稍微突破一个刻度 Slight one tick breakout with the body 32.
你应该能够看到它 You should be able to see it.
它在这张图上 我会把它放大 你就在那里可以看到它 It's on the chart here. I'll make it bigger. You can see it there.
一些熊会开始在这里出售 因为 Some bears will start to sell here because
他们崩溃了 其他人会等待整整一个小时的目标 they're devastated. Others will wait for a full one hour target
进行剥削 而这恰恰就在那里 for exploitation which is there.
但预计会有空头抛售 至少回到 But expect some bears selling. Bring it back to at least
到K线 28. 多头如何进入 to a bar 28. How are the bulls entering
首先 他们开始在内部买入 在区间内 价格高出一个单位 Well first they start to buy inside. One tick above inside the range
上面一个刻度是31 但对于这个形态 one tick above is 31. But for this setup
他们会在收盘价 32 的时候买入 也会在回调的时候买入 they would buy the close of 32 they would buy the pull back
然后他们会买入高于32的股票 and then they would buy one tick above is 32 wanting
测试了半个小时 所以他们会怎么做呢 他们会签两份合约 that half hour tested. So what they would do they would take out two contracts
这里 如果他们进入了三个方向 那么就阻止一名跑者 here. If they entered three ways then hold a runner
一小时 也就是这里 也就是70.25 into one hour which is here. That is 70.25.
这正是我正在做的 所以我确实退出了 And that's what I'm doing. So I did exit out.
从我的做空来看 我确信多头即将利用 From my short I was convinced that bulls are about to exploit
这样 我就更有可能去 this so I have a higher probability of going
在这些空头再次抛售之前 趁机获利 up and exploiting these bears before they sell again.
所以我用三种方式入场：回调 平仓 上涨一个价位 So I entered three ways. The pull back the close one tick above.
我比那半小时少了一个刻度 I am one tick below that half hour
想要签订两份合约 is wanting to take out two contracts.
然后留下一名跑者到这里 甚至可能到那里 And then leave a runner up to here maybe even up to there
取决于我们如何收盘 depends on how we close above this.
刚刚拍了一些 Al just took some
关 现在我只有一个合约 但它可以 off. Now I have just one contract. But it can
跌至突破点 即 28 come down to the breakout point which is 28
开放 所以要小心 它可能会下跌 因为这些空头不是 open. So watch out it can come down because these bears are not
玩耍 他们知道自己陷入困境了 playing. And they know that they are stuck.
所以他们想把它降到 So they are going to want to bring it down to the
再次达到该区间的 50% 至少达到突破点 即 50% of this range again at least to the breakout point which is
62.25 即28号开盘 62.25 which is the 28 open.
如果他们到达那里 价格开始进一步下降 他们就会一路走下去 And if they get there and it starts to come down more they are going to bring it all the way
下降到中点 这样他们就可以退出了 但是 down to the midpoint so they can exit out. But
很可怜吧 三道防撞K线 太棒了 pitiful Three bull bars that's great.
因此 多头可以趁此机会买入 这将带来 So bulls can buy the pull back here and it can bring
价格 他们可以把价格拉高到1R 这正是多头想要的 the price. They can bring the price to the 1R this is what the bulls want.
但我不知道未来是否会上涨 我会 But whether it's going to go up I don't know the future I will
在这里获利 这是我的工作 我需要自己付钱 take profit here. That's my job. I need to pay myself.
因为这里可能有卖家 Because there could be sellers here.
你就可以看到 它刚刚回撤了 And you can see there it just pulled back.
所以一些 So some
买家会再次进入那里 但如果 buyers will enter there again. But if the body of
34号K线重新回到里面 或者至少 bar 34 closes back inside or at least
低于第 28 条开盘价一刻 那些空头 one tick below bar 28 open those bears
不会停止 他们会希望进一步回调 will not stop. They will want a deeper pull back
达到该交易区间的中点 目前 多头正在尝试 to the midpoint of that trading range. now bulls are trying
将其控制在突破状态 to keep it contained as a breakout.
他们又买回了 They bought the pull back again
因为目标是关闭保险杠并超过半R because the goal is to close bull bars and get above the half R
完成目标 至少获得1R 但我知道 and complete the objective and get at least the 1R. But I know
这种事经常发生 你 this happens all the time and you
这里有一个狭窄的空头通道 几条腿向下 got a tight bear channel here several legs down
当有人被困在这里时 他们会想要 when somebody is stuck here they will want
回调50% 所以我就在那里获利了结 the 50% pull back. So I take profit there.
如果我要买任何东西 如果我持有 And then if I'm going to buy anything if I'm holding
仍然在这里等待 1R 这是 1R 如果我仍然持有 still here for 1R this is the 1R if I'm still holding
我在这里剥头皮 我在那里持有 我可以买入 I scalp here I'm holding there I can buy
50% 一直到这个区域的阈值 50% all the way to the threshold around this area
我可以快速修复运行者 and I can fix that runner quickly before
我们从这里开始突破 他们应该继续 we get a breakout from here. They were supposed to continue
到处都是 但他们从未实现空头突破 into here and here but they never got that bear breakout.
所以现在那些空头正在这里出售 所以我知道他们会试图出售 So now those bears are selling here so I know they will try to sell.
如果我坚持要实现这个目标或那个目标 And if I'm stuck holding for this target or that target
看 我们刚刚测试了50% 我可以下买单 look we just tested the 50%. I can put a buy order
在那里 我可以一直放到下三分之一的买单 也就是 there I can put all the way to the lower third buy order that is
要在熊队之前解决那个跑垒员 going to fix that runner before bears
再次接管 空头试图 take over once again. Bears trying
再次获得熊旗 to get a bear flag again
这意味着他们必须拿出 so that means they have to take out the
15分钟K线营业 所以他们需要带来市场 15 minute bars open so they need to bring market
一路跌至 54.25 all the way down to 54.25
至少 继续卖出 at the very least to continue to sell
实现3R目标 他们能做到吗 into 3R target. Will they be able to do it
如果 5 分钟图上的空头实体收盘 你就会知道 You'll know it if the bear body on the 5 minute chart closes
低于该交易区间的中点 这意味着现在空头 below the midpoint of this trading range. That means bears are now
重新获得某种控制权或向我们展示 getting some kind of control back or showing us
他们真正希望价格回落到 30 that they truly want price to come back down to the 30
收盘价 31 元 开盘价 31 元 为什么 close and 31 open. Why
这重要吗 嗯 他们很高兴卖出 把收盘价看作开盘价 is that important Well they were happily selling. Look at the close as an open
28 29 30 的K线 突然看看 of bars 28 29 and 30 and suddenly look at the
在 30 号和 31 号开盘时结束 那次拍卖 close on the open of 30 and 31. That auction
留下 所以熊感到困惑 将开始 left behind so bears are confused will start to make
钱 所以那些空头会卖出 他们的目标是 money so those bears will sell and their goal is to get
先达到 50% 然后他们能否关闭 34 to the 50% first and then if they can close the bar 34
在它下面 或者下一个K线 把它拉低到 30 收盘价 below it or the next bar bring it down to the 30 close.
但空头未能做到的一件事是 他们无法关闭 But one thing the bears failed to do they could not close
低于交易区间中点34 我说什么了 34 below the midpoint of the trading range. What did I say
我会这么做吗 我会在那里买 为什么呢 That I would do I would buy there. Why is that
如果我上次购买 B 是 If I bought the last buy for B was
就在32以上 我在这里买 看我已经 above 32. I buy here look I've already
收支平衡 还有盈余 所以我知道我们正在努力达到 32 got a break even and a plus so I know we're trying to get to the 32
高 哦 看看这个 所以 看看 high. Oh look at that. So look at
那个K线 他们刚刚测试了上面的32个刻度 所以每个人 that bar. They just tested the 32 one tick above so everybody
谁在这个交易区间的 50% 进入买入 who entered there buying at the 50% of this trading range
收支平衡了 那么 我收支平衡了吗 是的 先生 got a break even. So did I get a break even Yes sir.
所以现在市场需要决定怎么做 要么上涨 So now market needs to decide what it wants to do. Either go up
给我 1R 和 2R 或者放弃 这将是一个突破块 give me the 1R and 2R or give up that's going to be a break
甚至 如果这条线突然以看跌姿态收盘 那么空头就会试图将其拉低到这里 even and suddenly this bar closes bearish then bears will try to bring it down here.
所以事情有一个顺序 So there is an order of things in the
在你想要的东西之前需要做的市场 market that needs to be done before what you want
必须得做 看看发生了什么 it to be done. See what happened there
那些多头在32美元上方买入 实现了盈亏平衡 Those bulls they bought one tick above 32 got a break even
所以现在他们知道空头有机会以尽可能悲观的姿态收盘 so now they know bears got a chance here to close this bar as bearish as possible
低于中点 所以我要把它延伸一下 这样你就能看得更清楚了 below the midpoint. So I'm going to extend this so you can see it clearly.
如果他们确实收盘低于 35 And if they do close bar 35 below the
交易区间的中点 你知道 信号不好 30 midpoint of this trading range you know bad signal bar 30
高 30体 公平游戏 high 30 body all fair game
即使无法得到突破 空头也会去测试 for bears to go and test even if they cannot get a breakdown.
但目标是真正参与这次拍卖 完成这次拍卖 But the goal is to really get to this auction finish this auction and
空头重新掌控市场 这意味着他们 own the market back for bears. So that means they have
把价格推到这里 现在 空头未能收盘 to bring price to here. Now bears failed to close the bar
34. 这是第一次尝试 第一次 如果35 34. That's try one number one. If the 35
也未能收于下方 这是第二次尝试 然后空头 also fail to close below that's try number two then the bears
将会退出 我们得到一个好的收盘看涨信号 然后多头接管 并且 will exit out and we get a good close bullish then the bulls take over and
这是你的公平游戏目标 that is your fair game target.
那么谁会赢呢 这就是为什么K线关门时间如此重要 So who's going to win This is why the bar closes are super important.
其间可能会发生一些事情 Things can happen in between.
如果你过早进入交易 这对你不利 Not favorable to you if you enter too early to a trade
无需确认 所以这就是原因 最好的办法 without the confirmation. So this is why. Best way
收盘价 多头希望看到第一个单元出现反弹 for bar closes. Bulls want they see a rally in the first cell
他们不想卖 因为他们知道买家在这里 所以 they don't want to sell they know buyers are here so
他们正在寻找第二条腿 为了获得第二条腿 他们 they're looking for a second leg up. In order to get the second leg up they
真的需要再收一根多头突破线 最好收盘 它们 really need to close another bull breakout bar. Better to close they're
已经测试了 32 的高点 所以这些多头又在赚钱 但是 already tested the 32 high so these bulls are making money again but
他们最好能把价格收在接近 32 美元的高点附近 better they can close the bar somewhere near close to the 32 high
那么这将是不可避免的 我们要回到健康状态 我们 then it will be inevitable. We're going to get back up to the health bar and we
迅速越过它 1R 将成为目标 get above it quickly 1R is going to be the target.
但是 我不知道 没有人知道 所以熊仍在执行任务 But I don't know nobody knows so bears are still on a mission.
他们没有允许多头以看涨姿态关闭该栏 They haven't allowed bulls to close that bar bullish
第二条突破线 尽管多头想要第二轮上涨 second breakout bar even though the bulls want the second leg up.
但如果 35 最终以看跌收盘 But what if the 35 could end up closing bearish as a
延续并首先测试 30 并且您已经进入多头 continuation and comes down first test the 30 and you already entered long
那么 你就会在那里损失钱 Well then you will lose money there.
我排除了影线 并使用了 I am excluding the wicks and I'm using the
实体 这是我 bodies. This is something that I've been
做了这么长时间 就像第一件事 doing for so long like the first thing that
我了解到 机器确实会注意 I have learned that machines do pay attention
很大 我已经测试了很长时间 所以我排除了 greatly. I've tested it a long time so I exclude
影线 你不必这么做 但是 the wicks. You don't have to but then
事情将会扭曲 你看 35 收盘看涨 things are going to be skewed. See 35 close bullish
那么你认为多头想要什么 他们想要继续上涨 so what do you think the bulls want They want continuation up.
他们希望在 35 以上进行第二次入场 They want a second entry long above 35
事实上 所以我在那里下了买单 in fact. So I put a buy order there
一个订单 只是想看看我是否可以 one order just to see if I can
进一步上升 go up further.
那熊呢 它们看到 What about bears They see
34 作为第一回合 他们希望看到第二回合的胜利 34 as a first leg they want to see a second leg down.
他们想下来测试一下缺口 They want to come down and test the gap bar
31 实体 而且他们的目标是把它 31 body and plus their goal was to bring it
跌至 29 点收盘 或者因为他们卖出了 down to the 29 close or because they sold
29 收盘时 您可以看到 30 实体缺口如何缩小一个刻度 29 close you can see how 30 body gap down one tick.
所以那里有很多卖家被困住了 你可以看到 So there were a lot of sellers there trapped. You can see
是吧 就在那儿 就在那儿 如果你问 it there there. If you ask
理查德 我们的理查德 他不会尊重这一点 但如果你 Richard our Richard he wouldn't respect that but if you
问问 Al 这是我喜欢的 他们的交流 只是 ask Al which is something I love their communications it's just
有时他们会在一些事情上意见不一致 而我只是 你知道 sometimes they disagree on things and I just you know
我不能进去 我所能做的就是观察他们的争吵 I can't go in there and all I can do is just watch their disagreement
他们的分歧实际上是在博客上 也就是 and their disagreement is actually on the blog which is
开放给所有人阅读 这很酷 open to everyone to read it. It's kind of cool.
我喜欢这一点 因为 Al 不与 I love that because Al doesn't trade with
他的订单流 但理查德却知道 his order flow but Richard does.
所以对于理查德来说 这真的没什么意义 但如果你问 So for Richard this really means nothing but if you ask
阿尔 那是裸露的压力 如果缺口 实体 Al that's bare pressure. If the gap the body
开盘时出现跳空下跌 那里有很多抛售 我们可能 is gapping down at the open that's a lot of selling there and we might
需要回去 所以这很有趣 need to get back there. So it's something interesting
我发现 你知道 两个非常 that I found you know two very
经验丰富的交易员 例如理查德和阿尔 seasoned traders like Richard and Al
和他们的推理 他们仍然相处融洽 and their reasoning and they still get along
完美 他们是一支很棒的团队 perfectly and they're such a great team all
这几十年 这些年 我只是喜欢从 these decades years. I just love learning from
两个都一样 挺酷的 去 both of them. It's kind of cool. Goes to
展示给你 体验一切 show you experiences everything.
卖家 现在注意 Al the sellers now notice the
27 关门 28 开门 注意 27 close and the 28 open and notice the
收盘价28 开盘价29 这是第一次盈亏平衡 28 close and 29 open. That is the very first break even
我们在第 34 节中谈到了这一点 现在 which we reach with bar 34. Now
多头确实结束了 所以现在这是一个问题 他们有第二根K线 bulls did close so now this is a problem. They have a second bar
但他们知道空头也想再次下跌 here but they know the bears want a second leg down also.
所以现在空头迎来了第二波反弹 多头会遏制空头吗 So now bears got their second leg. Will the bulls contain the bears
就在中间点 现在他们又得回去了 here at the midpoint Now they have to go back again
到35高 还是他们会放手 to 35 high or are they going to let go
直到空头真正达到第二个卖点 也就是 until bears actually reach the second sell point which is
29 的收盘价和 30 的价位缺口在 the close of 29 and the bar 30 gap down at the
开放 这意味着有很多熊被困住了 也许我们需要 open. So that means there are a lot of bears are stuck. Maybe we need to get
到那里并标记它然后再回去 down there and tag that and then go back up.
有时你会得到这个而不是继续 所以 Sometimes you get this instead of continuation. So
你觉得我的止损单怎么了 这就是为什么止损单非常 what do you think I did with my stop order This is why the stop orders are very
很棒的订单类型 great order types.
没有什么事是伟大的 要么你 There's no such thing as very great. Either you
说非常好或很棒 抱歉 我的英语不好 say very good or great. Sorry my English.
它们是非常好的订单类型 因为您可以取消它 They are very good order types because you can cancel it.
由于我们没有超过 35 度 它降下来并带走了 Since we didn't go above 35 and it came down and took out the
35低 我取消了那个订单 35 low I canceled that order.
但一旦进入就无法取消 所以如果你要购买 But you can't cancel something if you enter. So if you were to buy
在限价订单市场收盘价 35 时 一堆金条 the close of 35 in a limit order market a bunch of bars go
侧身 或许反击更好 他们会困住你 你就会输 sideways. Probably it's better against. They would have trapped you and you'd be losing
很多 所以这就是为什么Elle说要利用止损订单市场 a lot. So this is why Elle says utilize the stop order market.
这种方式交易更安全 新手交易者应该始终保持交易 It's a lot safer to trade that way. And new traders should always trade
止损单 空头试图 with stop orders. Bears trying to do
这里有一些关于多头的信息 但现在是 a number on bulls here. But this is now the
他们第三次试图将收盘价降至中点以下 他们能做到吗 但是 third time they're trying to close below that midpoint. Are they going to be able to But look
多头队 多头队就像 等等 我们结束了32场比赛 我们得到了 at the bulls. Bulls are like wait we closed the 32 we got the
35 还有多远 我们又接近35了 35 how far We closed the 35 again.
我们仍然掌控着局面 我们想要重新崛起 We are still in control. We want to go back up.
所以 在这里 So here take your second
跌倒 退出市场 所以他们不允许空头 leg down and get out of the market. So they did not allow bears
收盘跌破中点 这就是空头的最终结果吗 to close below the midpoint. Is this all the bears are going to get
现在我们关闭另一个牛栏 这是一个三角形 这是一个 Now we close another bull bar. That is a triangle. That's a
牛旗就在这里 所以它更有可能 bull flag here. So it's got a more probability
现在去诱捕熊 然后去 now to trap the bears and then go and
接近并突破那里 然后到达这里 所以它的概率更高 close and break out there and get up here. So it's got a higher probability.
所以它形成了一个三角形 牛旗 So it is forming a triangle. Bull flag.
有可能 但我们能突破吗 Possibly. But are we going to get the break out
好吧 这家K线现在又得关门了 上面 Well this bar needs to close now one more time. Above
就在这里 然后 是的 我们就上去 here. Then yeah we'll go up.
就这样 现在 There you go. Now
35 上方有买单 同样 高出一个刻度 there are buy orders above 35. Again one tick above.
天哪 这看起来像个壁架 So jeez this is looking like a ledge
不是吗 所以这意味着又要拍卖一次 doesn't it So that means another auction.
它正在挣扎 多头需要抓住机会 所以它需要上涨一个基点 It's struggling. Bulls need to own this. So it needs to go one tick above.
看看吧 买单只是 See buy orders are just
即将被激活 about to get activated.
我不喜欢强壮的熊身 所以如果你有一个 I don't like the vibe of a strong bear body. So if you have a
购买理由 这意味着您的订单仍然高于 reason to buy that means your order is still above
35. 我现在下单 35. I put my order now
超过这个保险杠 我不会进入上面 above this bull bar. I'm not entering above
35. 你会说 这难道不是有点晚了吗 不 35. You're going to say well isn't that a little bit late No.
因为36是看跌的 我不喜欢买 Because 36 is bearish. I don't like to buy
高于空头价位 我打算在33以上买入 above bear bars. I'm going to buy above 33.
因为当它到达那里并超过那里时 很有可能 Because by the time it gets there and goes above chances are
它很快就会到达一小时 it's going to just go up to the one hour very quickly.
我宁愿去那里 我已经 I rather to enter there. I already
有一份合约 我在这里签订了另一份合约 had one contract and I had another one entered here.
我收支平衡了 不喜欢36的下跌 I had a break even. Didn't like the fact 36 was coming down.
所以我带着那份合约退出了 所以我 So I exited with that contract. So I
有另一份合约 我最初签订的那份 kept another contract The original one that I entered
从这里开始 所以有32 现在它 from here. So with 32. Now it
实际上我已经恢复了其他合约 actually got my other contracts back in
就在我上面添加的新合约上方 above the new contracts that I was adding above
33. 我说我会在 33 以上买入 然后我会 33. I said I would have a buy order above 33 and then I would
寻找加速至一小时 所以它更接近 look for acceleration up to one hour. So it came closer
一个小时 我休息了一会儿 我在那里待了不少时间 to one hour. I took a couple off. I entered quite a bit there.
我仍在等待 因为我还没有达到我的全部目标 I'm still holding because I didn't get my full target there.
这不是V型反转 V型 This is not a V shaped reversal. V shaped
反转相当强劲 通道向上 reversals are pretty strong. Channels up
频道向下和频道向上或在这种情况下 channels down and channels up or in this case
这只是第二轮上涨 也是一面漂亮的牛旗 现在 为了 this is just a second leg up and a nice bull flag. Now in order for
为了继续上涨 我们需要一个多头收盘价高于 32 高点 this to keep going up we need a bull close above the 32 high.
所以这是一项很无聊的工作 但做得并不好 So this was a scut but job not well done.
因此 多头需要获得这一小时 但他们还没有 So bulls need to get the one hour and they haven't.
他们仍然想要一个小时 甚至两个小时 They still want their one hour possibly two hour.
所以我们需要等待这些多头关闭K线 So we need to wait for these bulls to close the bar.
这意味着多头突破 为什么会出现这种情况 That means that's a bull breakout. Why is this coming
下来 记得我说过我们会去测试27 down Remember I said we would go and test the 27
高 我有点…… high. I kind of...
我的抗性线怎么了 我 What happened to my resistant line there I
消失了 我肯定把它删掉了 所以你可以看到有一些 disappeared. I must have deleted it. So you can see there are some
这里的卖家和买家一样多 sellers also here as much as their buyers.
现在多头已经结束 所以这是 So now bulls close the bar. So this is
非常好 所以现在多头希望价格上涨 他们实际上希望 really good. So now bulls want higher prices here. They want to actually
再关上一道保险杠 如果他们这么做 这不仅会 close another bull bar. If they do this is not only going to
去这里 它实际上可能会到这里 这里很漂亮 go here. It might actually go up to here. It's pretty
有意思 所以我们在这里得到了一个保险杠 interesting. So we get a bull bar here.
我们要上去 We are going to go up
最有可能是 73.50 most likely 73.50
或 73.75 我们甚至可以 or 73.75. We could even
一路推高至移动平均线上方 push all the way up above the moving average
可能实际上会得到 80.25 或 80 and might actually get 80.25 or 80
区域 所以我仍然做多 area. So I am still long.
但我需要一头多头靠近这里 But I need a bull close here.
37 很不错 这证实了这是 37 is nice. It's confirmation that this was a
突破旗帜 因此它需要 flag breakout. So it needs to
继续往上走 如果你从这里测量 keep going up. If you measure from here
你还在利用这一点 但现在我有多头了 you are still exploiting this. But now I have a bull
多头 bull
交易区间 所以我会选择这个交易区间 那么这就是我的目标 trading range. So I would take this trading range. So then this would be my target.
我就是这么说的 我们会去测试73.75 That's what I was saying. We would go and test the 73.75
73.50 然后我们可以在那里找到一些卖家 73.50. And then we could get some sellers there
回到突破点 但多头现在想要的是 back to the breakout point. But what the bulls want now is the
我们的目标看涨 所以我现在正在测量这个交易区间 bulls on our target. So I am now measuring this trading range.
但我需要突破确认 这意味着38线 But I need a breakout confirmation. Means bar 38
需要收盘看涨 它已经出现了一个后续信号 needs to close bullish. It's already getting a follow through flag
如果你读懂了形态 就会发现突破 它正在试图进入磁铁 breakout if you read the pattern. It's trying to get to the magnet
关键价格水平 恰好是健康R 将会有很多利润 key price level which happens to be the health R. There will be a lot of profit
拍摄于此 所以我想看到多头再收复 taken there. So I want to see bulls close another
多头在这里 不会放弃 确认 bull body here and not give up. Confirmation
对多头来说是一个更好的设置 is a much better setup for bulls
去更高的地方 所以这是非常棒的工作 to go higher. So this is fantastic work.
因此下一个阻力位是 22 So the next resistance then becomes the bar 22
从 22 低点开始 starting from the 22 low.
我们可以上去 你看 还有另一个 We could go up. Look there is also another
这里的阻力位从 24 点低点到 25 点高点 resistance here from the 24 low to 25 high.
首先 卖家来了 所以这些多头会 First sellers are here. So these bulls will
开始获利 因为他们知道这也是一条移动平均线 这也是 start to take profit because they know this is also a moving average. This is also
健康R.这也是替代方案 health R. And this is also alternative
阻力 这只是一个中间 resistance. This is just an in between
抵抗 这是一种供给 现在他们打破了供给 resistance. This is a supply. Now they break the supply
区域 这现在是支撑位 这已经成为支撑位了 zone. This is now support. This has become a support.
这样我们就可以快速回来使用它 So we could quickly come back and use it
作为支撑 并上升 所以我们可能会被拒绝 我要 as a support and go up. So we could get a rejection. I am going to
就在这里停下 73.75 73.50 stop here. 73.75 73.50
区域 我接到命令停止 area. I have orders to stop.
我要把跑垒员拉到这里 这是 And I am going to hold the runner into this here which is the
22 低 就在这里 这是 22 low. To this here which is the
22 低 一些多头正在准备 22 low. Some bulls are getting ready
从桌上拿走一些钱 这是一个很好的地方 to take some money off the table and that is a great place here to
这样做 73.75 73.50 区域 do that. 73.75 73.50 area.
我试着相信我的进程并等待 I am trying to trust my process and waiting
获得报酬 只需 to get paid. Just a
再高一点 one more point up.
一个点和一个刻度将是均匀的 One point and one tick would be even
好多了 much better. Okay.
我已经在下面的一个勾号处停了下来 I have stopped here one tick underneath.
我总是提前完成目标 我在那里签了五份合约 I always front run my targets. I took out five contracts there.
我留下了一份合约 但我知道 这是 And I left the one contract up. But I know this is
我管理我的风险 为什么我没有 me managing my risk. Why am I not
一直持有那六份合约吗 holding that six contract all the way up here
嗯 看看这个 这是一个健康R Well look at it. This is a health R.
所以我们有一个突破块 突破实体 38 So we have a breakout. Breakout body 38
离第一入场位标线太近了 所以 way too close to the first target line. So there is
那里没什么空间 我已经在这里买了 我又加了更多 not much room there. I was already buying down here. I added more
高于33 我说它可能会加速上升 above 33. And I said it is probably going to accelerate up.
所以我的工作就是赚钱 我不在乎工资涨得快还是慢 So my job is to get paid. I do not care if it goes up fast or
缓慢或者先下降再上升 slow or it comes down first and goes up.
如果实体收盘上涨至健康 R 上方 我将再加仓一次 If the body closes bullish above the health R I will add back another
两份合约 但我的工作是尽量降低风险 two contracts. But my job is to minimize the risk
手里拿着运行机 因为如果我不停下来 while holding a runner. Because if I do not stop
如果发生这样的事情 我将会损失六份合约 anything here and this comes down I am going to be losing with six contracts.
如果现在降价 我就会损失一份合约 If it comes down now I will be losing with one contract.
然后我就可以买入回调并修复它 所以现在 Then I can buy the pullback and fix it. So now
我仍在赚钱 所以我只是要移动我的止损点 I am still making money. So I am just going to move my stop
更接近并且我不会失去直线 closer and that I cannot lose the straight.
因此规则仍然可以得到 So rules can still get
很快就到了 哦 太好了 up there pretty quickly. Oh that is nice.
我刚意识到 哦 I just realized. Oh
太好了 我刚刚交易了一堆 that is nice. I was just trading a bunch of
合约 我刚刚意识到我正在测试这个资助的 contracts and I just realized that I am testing this funded
周末我找到的公司 我没有意识到我实际上 company that I found over the weekend. I did not realize that I actually
通过了考试 这很棒 我相信他们会说 passed their test which is great. I am sure they are going to say
嗯 你违反了我们的规则 因为 well you are violating our rules because
你只是在一天内通过了 我相信有一条规则 我 you just passed in one day. I am sure there is a rule that I
忘了继续读 但我已经过了 所以 forgot to read upon. But I already passed it. So that was
很容易 好吧 也许我应该 very easy. Well maybe I should
现在换做别的东西 now switch to something else.
等一下 我也需要吃东西 Just give me a second. I also need to eat
做点什么 稍事休息一下 something. Take a quick break.
这看起来不错 Okay this seems to be good.
关闭那个 Close that one.
所以请给我一点时间并更改一些连接 So just give me a second and change some connections.
这是交易区间 我正在关注 This is the trading range and I am looking at
失败的熊 failed bears.
我怎么知道空头正在失败 这有点 How do I know bears are failing This is something
如果你真的 听着 如果你是新手 你没有花 if you actually guys listen if you are new and you did not spend
和 Elle 在一起的时间太长了 至少你 too much time with Elle at least you had
是时候和布拉德·沃尔夫交易了 我的意思是 我已经抓住了 time to trade with Brad Wolf. I mean I have caught
布拉德说过很多次了 他非常清楚 Brad saying this many many times and he was super clear about
他如何看待这些陷阱 我的意思是 你应该付钱 how he sees the traps. I mean you should be paying
注意主播们说了什么 尤其是布拉德 attention to what the streamers are saying especially Brad.
因为他解释并指出 Because he explains and points out where
可能的陷阱是什么 所以他总是 the possible traps are. So he always
说看看实体闭合然后打开的方式 says look at the way the bodies are closing and then opening.
那么您认为熊最后被困在哪里呢 So where do you think the bears are last trapped
嗯 就在这里 30 号关门 Well here. 30 closed.
31 正好在 30 的末尾 它应该继续 31 was at the close of 30. It should be continuing
下跌 相反 它只是上涨 并关闭了多头通道 所以你知道空头 down. Instead it just went up and closed the bull bar. So you know bears
被困住了 他们可能正在测量 are trapped. They could be measuring
10 分 他们可能比 10 points. They could weigh 10 points before
卖出 5 到 10 个点 也就是说 selling 5 to 10 points. So that is 21 ticks to
41个蜱虫 他们 41 ticks or something. And they
最终大约重10分 没错 10分 ended up weighing about 10 points. That is there. 10 points.
然后他们就卖掉了 所以在中间某个时候 他们收支平衡了 但是 And then they sold. So somewhere in the middle they got a break even. But
最终 一切都只是收支平衡 第二回合失败了 that all ended up becoming nothing but a break even. Second leg failed.
因此 当第二回合失败时 多头就会介入 So when the second leg fails bulls come in.
所以这是一个交易区间 它最初是这样的 So this is a trading range. It was originally like this.
这就是交易区间 现在我们有了更大的 This was the trading range. And then now we have a much bigger
交易区间就在那里 trading range there.
所以现在我们突破了交易区间 So now we have a breakout of the trading range.
我们进入初步阻力位 我已获利了结 We go to preliminary resistance. I took profit
那里 我们没有看到收盘价高于 30 的多头实体 there. We don't have a bull body close above 30.
39 没有在 1R 上方收盘 39 did not close bull body above the 1R.
这就是正在发生的获利回吐 So that is profit taking happening there.
现在多头想要继续保持这种势头 Now bulls want to continue there.
多头尚未被套牢 是第 39 条 The bulls have not yet trapped. Is bar 39
好的卖出信号线 目前 这是一个盈利 a good sell signal bar At the moment it is a profit
获利了结 但不一定是卖出信号 taking bar. But not necessarily a sell signal bar.
所以它还可以继续上涨 So it can still continue to go up.
我给你的建议 My advice to you
伙计们 或者建议 guys or suggestion
我更喜欢“建议”这个词 而不是“忠告” I like the word suggestion better than an advice.
我的建议是 看看什么是 My suggestion to you look what is a
首先要明白 什么是交易区间 为什么市场 understand first what is the trading range Why market
创建...等一下 creates...hold on a minute.
我对你的建议 My suggestion to you
就是要了解为什么会出现交易区间 is to understand why the trading ranges happen.
目的是什么 或者在图表上 What is the purpose or on the chart
他们的目的是什么 是暂停一下吗 what is their purpose Is it a pause
然后继续 如果 and then continue If it is a pause in a
空头趋势 通常会形成陷阱 bear trend that generally creates a trap.
那么 它又跌了一跤 这是反转吗 So then it gets another leg down. Is it a reversal
V 型反转并不常见 Reversals don't happen often in V shaped
我称之为复苏或急剧反转 recoveries or sharp reversals that I would call.
这些都是罕见事件 但什么 Those are rare events. But what
反转发生时 它们会进入一个交易区间 然后反转 the reversal do they go into a trading range before reversing
备份 但即使是这些 在两次之后也可能反转 back up. But even those can reverse back down after a two
或者三条腿 所以我建议你 or three legs. So then I would suggest to you that
进入 RTA 图表 找到 go on to an RTA chart find
任何看起来像交易区间的东西 学会寻找 anything that looks like a trading range. Learn to find
那些交易区间 就像这里 这是一个交易区间 those trading ranges. Like here this was a trading range.
因为我不知道这个价格走势 如果我只是 Because I don't know this price action. If I'm just
观察后 我看到了一个交易区间 所以我会衡量一下 watching I see a trading range. So I will measure that.
然后我看到了突破 所以现在我们有一个交易区间 And then I see a breakout. So now we have a trading range
突破 所以我可以说 看 我要接受这个 breakout. So I could say look I'm going to take that.
这是一个交易区间 这是一个R This is a trading range. That was one R.
可能是多头想吃掉两个R 现在这两个R怎么了 实际上 Possibly bulls trying to get the two R. Now what happened to the two R It's actually
不是交易区间 这是交易区间 所以这就是三条线 not the trading range. This was the trading range. So that's the three bar.
这是交易区间 这是突破 所以他们 This is the trading range. That's the breakout. So they
得到了两个 R 所以你的确认是第四条 got the two R. So your confirmation is bar four.
开盘时 第四根K线出现突破 At the open fourth bar got a breakout.
那么如何买入呢 你可以买入高于一个价位的股票 也可以买入收盘价 还可以买入回调价 So how do you buy this You can buy one tick above you can buy the close you can buy the pullback.
他们从三个方向进入 多头进入 They entered three ways. Bulls entered
三种方式 他们买入收盘价 他们买入回调价 他们买入高于一个价位的股票 three ways. They bought the close they bought the pullback they bought one tick above.
第一个目标就在那儿 你可以稍微抢点 留下一个跑垒员 First target is there. You can scalp a little bit and leave a runner.
那熊呢 你看刚才发生了什么 熊栏关闭了 What about the bears You see what happened there. The bear bar close.
看 空头K线卖了一根 那些空头K线 Look bear bar sold by one close. Those bears
还在卖 然后他们失望了 were still selling. Then they got disappointed
因为第三根K线立即买入了两根K线的收盘价 because bar three immediately bought the close of two and
关闭了一个强大的保险杠 这会让每个人都不高兴 closed a strong bull bar. That will upset everyone.
但多头队未能做到的一件事是 他们 But the one thing that the bulls failed to do there they
没有在开口O上方关闭多头主体 所以意义 did not close the bull body above the open O. So meaning
交易区间的顶部 那么你认为空头会怎么做呢 因为他们 the top of the trading range. So what do you think the bears will do Since they
仍然包含 still contain the
价格在交易区间内 他们可能会……看 它在这里开盘 price inside the trading range they'll probably... Look it opened here
先 然后他们把它卖了 他们得到了喘息的机会 first. And then they sold it. They got a break
甚至 然后它又上涨并关闭了 所以那些熊 even. And then it went back up and closed it. So those bears
退出 多头结束多头线 您可以以高于一个点的价格买入 exit. Bulls close a bull bar. You can buy one tick above.
获利了结 获利了结 如果你没有看到两三根金条 多头就无法 Take some profit take some profit. If you're not seeing two three bars bulls are not able
以超过 2 R 的价格收盘 他们永远不可能获得 3 R to close above two R they're never going to get the three R.
然后你开始寻找空头实体 并且可以在 50% 以内卖出 Then you start to look for bear bodies and you can sell back inside the 50%.
可能有买家在那里等待 因为他们 There are probably buyers waiting there because they got
被困在那里 所以那些买家涨价了 他们收支平衡 K线关门了 trapped there. So those buyers go up. They break even. The bar closes.
你可以在这个价格线下方卖出一个单位 目标价位是这些低点 目标价位 You can sell one tick below that bar. Target these lows. Target
那个 瞄准那个 如果你愿意的话 瞄准那个 that. Target that. Target that if you like.
看到了吗 一路下来 到达了目标 一二三四 R See Came down all the way to this target. One two three four R
然后再回升 现在你又有了一个交易区间 before going back up. Now you have another trading range here.
就在那里 这次你可以带 there. This time you can take
那么高 就在这里 所以你 that high. This here. So you
那里有50%的涨幅 但没有收盘价超过这个水平 没有多头突破 have a 50% there but nothing closed above it. There's no bull breakout
那里 据我所知 空头仍然可以把价格拉到这里 there. As far as I'm concerned bears can still bring it down to here.
相反 他们却取得了突破 所以现在他们要上涨了 明白了吗 Instead they got a breakout. So now they're going to go up. See
你看到空头放弃了 我也看到了 这是一次突破 You see how bears gave up and I see it. It's a breakout.
一切都发生得非常快 它可能已经达到了 1R 的目标 It happened very quickly. It probably already reached a one R target.
但你仍然可以买入 你可以买入平仓 也许你可以卖出 But you can still buy it. You can buy to close. Maybe you can put
在突破水平的某处回调买入 a pullback buy somewhere at the breakout level.
或者你也可以买入 价格高出一个单位 这样你就能赚钱了 Or you can buy one tick above. You're going to make money.
有一段时间你没赚到钱 然后情况又反转了 You didn't make money for a while. And then it reversed back down.
然后买家就买了 因为它是一根缺口棒 那根棒的 50% Then the buyers bought because it's a gap bar. 50% of that bar
买家正在等待 等等等等 你只需要测试一下 buyers are waiting. So and so. You just have to test things.
了解这些交易区间如何运作 Learn how these trading ranges work.
测量 What is the best way to measure a
交易区间 你想接影线吗 你不想接 trading range Do you want to take the wicks Do you not want to take the
影线 看看这里发生了什么 所以我仍然拿着跑棒 wicks Now look what happened here. So I'm still holding a runner.
事情进展不顺利 我很难过 现在到底发生了什么 And it's not going my way. I am upset. Now what happened here
嗯 市场动了 一会儿涨 一会儿跌 一会儿涨 一会儿跌 Well market moved. Up on this down on this. Up on this down on this.
多头队可能又赢了一局 所以它又回来了 Bulls won another leg up probably. So it's coming back
因为这里有一个小的交易区间 它突破了 inside because there was a small trading range here. It broke out.
所以我们要用50% 你可以用那个 但我用的是这个 So we're going to the 50% of it. You can use that. But I'm using this.
如果这是我的交易区间 那么我的中点在哪里 就在这里 So if this is my trading range where is my midpoint here.
你认为空头会在哪里试图将其打压 这里 你认为多头在哪里 Where do you think the bears are trying to take it down Here. Where do you think the bulls are
可能在这儿 在60 75之间 Probably somewhere here. Somewhere between the 60 75 and all the
前往 51 57 号的买家正在此区域等候 way to the 51 57 buyers are waiting in this area.
所以我要去买 So I am going to buy.
在这里 它上涨了 我的合约将收支平衡 In here and it goes up. I'm going to break even for the contract
我拿着的 但我警告过你 如果我不拿 that I was holding. But I warned you if I don't take
利润 这可能会夺走我的一切 我甚至可能失去一切 profit here this could take away everything. I could even lose everything.
所以 So.
两条腿向上 我说的这个区域可能 Two legs up. This area I said possibly
抵抗 我说的是这个区域 a resistance. And I said this area
现在可能是一种支持 could be possibly a support now.
但现在多头在哪里 所以现在我想看看 But now where are the bulls So now I want to see
保险杠落下 保险杠又合上 我本来可以做到的 a bull bar coming down and bull bar closing. I could have bulled that.
但我没看到多头线 不仅如此 现在空头线已经收盘 But I don't see a bull bar. Not only that now bears close the bear bar.
所以我不再真正相信它能提供任何支持 So I'm not really trusting that as a support anymore.
所以我什么都没买 如果我不打算买 So I didn't buy anything. So if I'm not going to buy
这里 本来应该起到支撑作用 但现在却没有 here what's supposed to act as a support now it's not
充当任何支撑 我希望这个区域能给我 acting anything as a support. I want this area to give me
买单 所以当我被困在这里时 可能 嗯 我 a buy order. So as I'm stuck here probably well I was
真的进入了那里 所以需要上去 really entered there. So needs to go up there
弹跳一下 这样我就可以出去了 不需要一路走到 with a bounce so I can exit. Doesn't need to go all the way up to the
33. 这就是提前进入的好处 33. That's the benefit of entering early
进入你的交易 因为如果你想修复一些东西 即使你买了 into your trades because if you're trying to fix something even if you buy the
深度回调 任何事情都很容易解决 deep pullback it's easy to fix anything.
但当你买得太晚 当多头获利了结时 But when you buy too late when the bulls are taking profit
然后你尝试购买 你的盈亏平衡点就会在某个地方 and then you try to buy your break even is going to be somewhere
在那里 这绝对不是什么好事 up here and that's never good.
那么空头现在需要……他们会怎么抛售 嗯 他们已经在抛售了 So bears now need to... how would they sell Well they're already selling.
这是第一次卖出 So this was the first sell and the
买家出现了 这已经是空头的第二次抛售了 buyers showed up. Now this is the second sell for bears.
他们要么在糟糕的卖出信号之下开始卖出 They either started to sell from underneath the bad sell signal
或者他们卖出了收盘价或低于 40 的一个刻度 bar or they sold a close or one tick underneath 40.
他们希望在中点下方关闭另一个空头实体 They want to close another bear body here below the midpoint.
特别是在低于阈值的情况下 会有更多的熊出现 这样它们就可以回到这里 Especially below the threshold to become a lot more bears so they can come back here.
现在这些空头实际上可以卖出 如果他们在 Now those bears can actually sell and if they close around
这里 空头实体 他们可以卖得更多 here a bear body they could sell a lot further
向下 down.
那多头呢 嗯 他们还在等待这个机会 What about the bulls Well they were still holding for this.
我们可能需要重新站起来 We might need to get back up again.
与移动平均线有 20 个缺口 20 bars gapping to the moving average.
因此 第一次触及移动平均线总是会成为一个好的限价单 So the first touch of the moving average always become a good limit order
卖区 这就是你现在正在经历的 这是我忘记的事情 sell area. And that's what you're experiencing now. That's something that I forgot
告诉你吧 不过你现在应该知道了 看看我们去了多少家K线 to tell but you should know by now. Look how many bars we've been down.
超过 30 38 39 个K线 More than 30 38 39 bars.
因此他们试图在中午进行持续抛售 So they're trying to do a midday continuation sell.
这是一次双腿回调 但现在多头陷入困境 This was a two legged pullback. But there are now bulls stuck
那里 所以那些多头也想买入 there. So those bulls want to also buy.
现在他们会去哪里买呢 瞧 我要先把这个问题抛到一边 Now where would they buy Look I'm going to get rid of this for a minute.
所以这最终变成了抵抗 So this ended up becoming resistance which it was
无论如何 这就是我在那里获利的原因 现在 anyway. That's why I took profit there. Now what about the
多头 他们在哪里可以买到 嗯 他们想买 bulls Where can they buy Well they want to buy
就在这儿的某个地方 这是其中之一 这就是为什么 somewhere in here. That's for one. That's why because
他们不想要裸实体 这是移动平均线的最后一个缺口实体 they don't want bare body. This is the last gap body to the moving average.
移动平均线缺口主体是最后一个裸K线 The moving average gap body is last bare bar
在我们得到两腿之前尽可能低地关闭 closed as low as possible before we got the two leg
上涨 因此 为了让空头继续下跌 它们需要关闭 up. So in order for bears to continue to come down they need to close
收盘价低于30实体的裸实体 a bare body below the close of 30 body.
他们确实这么做了 这还会进一步下跌 周二的低点是 They do that. This will come down even more. Tuesday's low is
目标价为 46.75 target which is 46.75.
我们甚至还有这面 这可能是一面裸露的旗帜 We have even this one. This is a bare flag possibly.
所以他们还必须拿出这 51.54 So they have to also take out this 51.54.
这是最后15分钟的裸体 It's the last 15 minute bare body
收盘价很低 所以如果他们用裸露的 closed low. So if they take out that with a bare
机构收盘 市场将进一步下跌 body closed market will come down even more.
是一样的 54 或 It's the same thing. 54 or
54. 如果他们做不到 突然多头出现 54. What if they can't and suddenly bulls show
起来 我没有Gap Body up Well I don't have a gap body
移动平均线缺口在这里 那么接下来会发生什么呢 moving average gap for bulls here. So what could happen
如果我们不能把这个封闭的 here is that if we cannot take out this closed
然后开始回升 那是因为多头被困在这里 他们仍在持有 and start to move back up that's because bulls are stuck here. They were still holding.
我们能做的就是获得多头体量 What we can do is we can get a bull body
与移动平均线出现跳空 你预期价格会 gapping from the moving average. And what you do is you expect price to get
然后多头再次买入 并瞄准该线 然后 down here and then bulls buy again and target that bar and that
打开然后关闭 那么 open and that close. So then
我们会按1 2 3来 然后也许就能下来 我不知道 we would make a 1 2 and 3 and then maybe we could come down. I don't know.
所以我预计这里会有一些买家 So I would expect some buyers here.
除非他们取消 30 个关闭的和 30 个 Unless they take out the 30 closed and 30
那么空头继续抛售是公平的 below then that's a fair game for bears to continue to sell further
下降 但我总是期待买家来到这里 因为他们想要 down. But I always expect buyers here because they want
来防止这种情况发生 这里就是做这件事的地方 to prevent that. And this is the place to do it.
我上次买的就是在这里 33 Last time I bought it was here. 33
高 所以如果我尝试在这里买东西 我可以 high. So if I try to buy somewhere in here I can
趁还未太晚 就实现收支平衡 break even before it's too late.
但我没有看到有人买 所以我不知道如何才能收支平衡 But I don't see anybody buying so I don't know how am I going to break even with that
合约 糟糕的买入信号线 contract. Bad buy signal bar
30. 我们正在测试实体 30. We are testing the body
以 42 号K线的低点开盘 open with bar 42 low.
因此一些多头将开始在那里买入 So some bulls will start to buy there.
如果我有一个买单 但我 If I had a buy order there but I'm
仍未达到收支平衡 still nowhere near to get a break even.
我的盈亏平衡点是 My break even is
正好是 60.75 exactly at 60.75.
它需要达到 60.75 才能让我收支平衡 It needs to tag 60.75 to give me a break even.
我没有看到有人购买 And I don't see anybody buying and
跳上去 所以一些多头会 jumping up there. So some bulls will
买入至收盘价 42 他们的目标是达到 buy to close of 42. Their goal is to get to the
60.75 至 61 区域 如果他们 60.75 to 61 area. If they
和我一样在第 33 条以上购买 bought just like me above bar 33.
你们能听到门铃声吗 Can you guys hear doorbell
背景中有声音吗 sound in the background
你们听得见吗 有些人听得见 有些人听不见 Okay you guys can hear Some of you hear and some of you can't.
你听过这个吗 Did you hear this one
刚才 很好 Just now Okay good.
听到门铃声的人 去检查一下耳朵 Those of you heard a doorbell go get your ears checked.
因为你听到了别的声音 可能是你家门铃响了 好吧 我算是打平了 Because you're hearing something else. It could be your doorbell. Al I just got a break even.
它实际上上涨了一个基点 所以我上次买入 It actually went one tick above. So my last buy
就在上面 所以我买了 was above there. So I bought the open
因为我想看看公开测试 because I wanted to see a test of the open
30 我当场就买了 看 它涨了一个价位 of 30. I bought it there and look it went one tick above.
所以这真是太棒了 我输了 So that was fantastic break even. I've lost
没什么 太好了 nothing. So that's great.
那不是我的火警警报器 That's not my fire alarm.
我很高兴我离开了那里 I am so glad I exited there.
因为有三根熊条 看起来真的 Because three bear bars it looked really
太棒了 那现在怎么办 现在空头 fantastic. So now what So now bears
这是交易区间 this was the trading range
多头只会被剥削 剥削到什么程度 And bulls only got exploited. How far
那么现在空头已经到了 走了多远 它们需要一个小时 So now bears got there. How far They want one hour.
所以我们现在可能会测试 51 41 50 So we're probably going to now test the 51 41 50.
极 Fantastic.
噢 真该死 Oh dang it.
我忘了我只交易一份合约 I forgot that I only traded on one contract.
显然我没有在一个账户上交易 忘记附上 Apparently I didn't trade it on one account. Forgot to attach
另一个账户 所以现在我靠一份合约赚了很多钱 抱歉 一个账户 the other account. So now I made a lot of money on one contract. And I'm sorry one account.
剩下的就都是零余额了 我讨厌 And the rest is just zero balance. I hate when I
那就这么做吧 好吧 我得做点 do that. Al I'm going to have to do some
现在就赶上进度 好吧 如果你卖了 catch up now. Al so if you did sell
市场正试图回落至41 50 market is trying to come down to the 41 50.
所以第 37 条是第二个入场位 So bars 37 was the second entry
长期 对于多头来说 也包括多头的突破 long. For bulls also the breakout of a bull
旗帜 所以从逻辑上讲 你知道 人们买入的价格高于 flag. So logically you know people bought above
是……我不喜欢空头K线倒下并拿走多头K线 is... I don't like it when a bear bar comes down and takes out a bull bar
35 很低 然后关闭半强 35 is low. And then close a semi strong
是空头实体 我不喜欢在这个价位上方买入 但有些多头会 is a bear body. I don't like to buy above that bar. But some bulls will
买入 他们会说这是空头的第二个短入场 他们 buy and they will say that's a second entry short for bears and they're
陷入困境 所以他们会在36或35以上设置买入订单 getting trapped. So they're going to put a buy order above 36 or 35.
我有一个超过 35 的订单 我取消了它 因为 36 被拿走了 I had an order above 35. I canceled it because 36 took out
到35岁 所以我说如果 to 35. So I said I would feel much safer if
我实际上买入的价格比最高价高出一格 I actually buy one tick above the high
那里是33美元的高点 所以我在那里下了买单 而且我投入了很多 which is 33 high. So I put the buy order there and I put a lot
订单 我实际上在那里下了五个买单 of orders. I actually put five buy orders there.
我已经有一个了 我说如果我们 And I had one already working. And I said if we
到达那里 很可能它会直接穿过它 然后 get there most likely it's going to buzz through it and
这会让我达到目标的一半 这样 it's going to give me the half our target. So that
意味着那些多头在那里赚钱 他们可能 means those bulls were making money there. And they were probably
以为会被贴上标签 但他们无法关闭保险杠 expecting this to be tagged. But they couldn't close bull bars
所以他们失败了 市场下跌 拿走了 36 so they failed and the market comes down and takes out the 36
所以你知道多头仍然被困在那里 也许持有一个 so you know bulls are still stuck there maybe holding a one
合约延长至一小时 所以他们会 contract to go up to the one hour. So they will
在空头突破之前买入 因此 下三分之一 buy before bears get their break out. So the lower third
他们在那里下订单 这是最不合逻辑的地方 they put buy orders there and the last logical place
参加第二轮比赛的最新入场者 the most recent entry to go along for that second leg
就在那里 所以你从那里测量到他们进入的地方 was there. So you measure from there to where they entered
然后你就收支平衡了 and then you get a break even
在那里 所以我只是 there. So I am just
我在交易时尽量保持逻辑性 I try to be logical when I'm trading.
一旦我开始将逻辑运用到交易中 Once I start to apply logic to the trading
或者我正在阅读的K线 我开始持续赚钱 or the bars that I'm reading I start to make money consistently.
所以我不需要把事情复杂化 我看待事情的方式 So I don't need to complicate things. I look at things that
看 这是三道保险杠 它应该横着走 look this was a three bull bars. It should go sideways
并给你另一条路 如果你再去三次 and give you another leg up. And if you were going another three
牛栏 是的 我说过这里会有获利回吐 但是 bull bars yes I said there will be profit taken here. But
如果有人被困在这里 他们该去哪里买 这是一个交易区间 if anyone is stuck here where are they going to buy This is a trading range.
他们会在价格较低的三分之一处购买 现在你可能会说 嘿 这是 At the lower third they will buy. Now you could say hey this is
运气真好 是啊 这也是三根熊条掉下来了 你可以看出来 a luck. Yeah this is also three bear bars down. You can tell
空头想要下跌 所以我现在的时间很短 the bears want to come down. So I have a very short window there.
窗口非常小 合乎逻辑 Very small window to be logical
并得到我的...我可以承受损失和 and get my... I could take the loss and
卖掉还能赚钱 但我选择 sell and still make money. But I just choose to
与其承担损失 不如修复它 所以我只是从上次修复的地方开始 fix it rather than take the loss. So I just fixed it from the last place
我买的 所以基本上我的损失 that I bought. And so basically my loss
对那个运行者来说不算什么 然后我 is not all that big for that runner. And then I
计算一下 这就是盈亏平衡点 calculate it and that was the break even.
我本来可以承担损失然后卖掉它 所以基本上 I could have taken the loss and sell it. So it's basically
三条腿侧向放下 高 three legs down sideways with the high of
第 43 条 然后立即以另一条腿向下卖出 bar 43 and then it immediately sells with another leg down.
因此空头仍在试图达到这一目标 41.50 So bears still trying to get this target. 41.50
也许25 maybe 25
41.50 41.50
是的 因为他们已经 Yeah because they were already
卖 我的意思是这个K线 39 是一个 selling. I mean this bar 39 was a
在第二条腿向上时获取利润 take profit bar with second leg up.
这意味着...而且这是健康 So that means... and plus it was the health
R代表着剥削多头 所以你获利了结 然后他们 R for exploitation bulls there. So you take profit. Then they
关闭第 40 条 这是一个三条反转线 close the bar 40. That's a three bar reversal soren.
这是三根反转线 所以基本上是第 40 条实体 It's a three bar reversal. So basically bar 40 body
向下扩展并封装两个 is expanding down and kind of encapsulating two
保险杠 这可真够有勇气的 bull bars. That has some gumption there.
我要找的词是什么 那里有些压力 What is the word I'm looking for Some pressure there.
所以对我来说 这是一个三线反转 现在我可以从下方退出了 So to me this is a three bar reversal. Now I could have exited from underneath
40. 这实际上是值得的 40. That would have been actually price coming
回到我进入的地方 那将是最终的收支平衡 back down to where I entered and that would have been the ultimate break even.
我本来可以直接退出 但我没有 我想买入然后回调 I could have just exited there. I didn't. I wanted to buy to pull back and
看看它是否真的能再次回升 并给我更好的 see if it actually goes back up again and gives me a much better
交易区间 但其中之一 trading range. But one of the
抱歉 这个词是什么 sorry what is the word
我正在寻找 百科全书幻灯片 I'm looking for Encyclopedia slides
Elle 所拥有的实际上是 that Elle had was actually a
持续卖出 这意味着 continuation sell. So that means
我们有相当强劲的空头 这是 we have bears pretty strong and this is
第一次回调至移动平均线抛售 所以是时候 the first pull back to the moving average selling. So it's time
让我退出并可能再次考虑出售 for me to exit and maybe look to sell again.
就是这样 我们刚刚谈到了“三个R” So there you have it. We just came down to the three R.
现在我想给你看点东西 我需要休息一下吃午饭 Now here is I want to show you something. I need to take a break for lunch.
我觉得我的血糖下降得很快 I think my blood sugar is coming down pretty fast.
这就是此设置的三个 R That was the three R for this setup.
这就是四个 R 我们可以 This is the four R. We could be
归根结底就是这样 coming down to that.
因此 此设置有四个 R So that's four R for this setup.
移动平均线最终开始卖出 The moving averages and then finally it starts to sell.
我从那里测量了 这是 I measured it from there. And this is
此设置的四个 R the four R for this setup
这正是这里的突破 which is break of here.
熊旗落下 因此 这个区域就成了目标 Bear flag coming down. So this area becomes target.
因此 如果空头想继续抛售 我们实际上可以实现这一目标 So we could actually get there if bears want to continue to sell
这个 还不错 所以这个区域看起来不错 this. It's not bad. So this area seems like a good
但我们需要先收于3R线下方 所以现在我们正在测试 but we need to close below the three R first. So now we're testing
三个R很棒 但我们可能不会继续下去 the three R which is great. But we may not continue down.
所以如果我们关闭 15 分钟图表 15 分钟 So if we do close the 15 minute chart 15 minute
跌破 41.25 后 我们将继续下跌 bar below 41.25 we will continue to come down.
现在这是我的一个 R 所以我们应该得到某种反弹 Now this is my one R. So we should get some kind of a bounce.
但如果空头抛售 我会寻找 But if the bears sell it I would be looking for
一个一又二分之一 R a one and a half and two R.
所以我想看到 45 在那里关闭一个熊身并继续 So I want to see 45 close a bear body there and continue
下降 如果反转呢 to come down. What if it reverses
回升 它会去哪里 它可能会涨到30的低点 back up Where would it go It could go up to the 30 low
和31个实体 它如何变得更加看涨 and 31 body. How does it become more bullish
它将开始与第 31 条重叠 It will start to overlap with bar 31
就像那样收盘多头实体 它可以买入以回调 like closing bull bodies like that. It could buy to pull back
并把我们带到那里 这可能会创造一个逆左 and bring us up there. That could create an inverse left
肩部 头顶反转和右肩反转 我会 shoulder inverse head and inverse shoulder. And I would
想去测试一下那个高度 want to go and test that high.
但我不知道 这只是猜测 所以现在 But I don't know that. That's just a speculation. So now
他们在这次突破后以 1 R 的价格获利 他们本应该 they're taking profit at the one R from this breakout. They were supposed to
继续 他们不得不让多头用两条腿走上来 然后 continue. They had to let bulls go up with two legs and then
他们开始在半R或移动平均线处卖出 你不需要 they started to sell at the half R or moving average. You don't need to
测量一下 你可以简单地说这是第二轮上涨 measure it. You can simply say this was the second leg up
然后是关键价格水平 这也是 and then the key price level. It was also a
阻力位来自 24 个低点和 25 个 resistance from the 24 low and the 25
兴奋和冲动的裸体 对我来说 这是 high and an impulsive bare body. To me that's
天生的抵抗力 很多人无法找到 a natural resistance. A lot of people can't locate
这些 但随着你学习并成为高级交易员 these but as you learn and become advanced trader
比如我不会使用 like for example I won't use
这个水平 因为那里没有冲动条 this level because there's no impulsive bar there.
所以最终在未来 So eventually in the future
你也可以说嘿 我要把这个当作 you can also say hey I'm going to take this as the
抵制 我不怪你 卖家你不必 resistance. And I don't blame you. Sellers you don't have to
一路测量到那里 你可以说卖家也可能在这里 measure all the way up there. You could say sellers could be here too.
这是经验带来的 但在这里 当我 That comes with experience. But here when I
看到空头抛售 突然我得到了一个缺口线和一个延续线 see bears selling and suddenly I get a gap bar and a continuation
腿真棒 这是阻力 我说过我们可以 really nice leg. That's a resistance. And I did say we could
实际上找到卖家 但如果我们收盘价高于这个水平 我们就会继续上涨 actually find sellers. But if we close above it then we're going to go up there.
我们从来没有超过这个水平 所以我们正在下降 We never did close above it so we're coming down.
因此 您可以以 40 的收盘价（低于 40 的一个刻度）卖出 So you could just sell close of 40 one tick below 40.
最晚可以卖出价为 41 美元收盘价 The latest you can sell the close of 41.
预计最低点为 30 如果空头突破 30 的低点 30 Expect 30 lows. If the bears take out the 30 low 30
关闭然后继续向下 close then continuation down.
所以我又把它放回去了 交易区间 So I'll put that back on. Trading range
短暂突破 这是因为 brief breakout above it. That's because
多头正处于第二波反弹阶段 他们需要获利了结 这些多头已经 the bulls are on a second leg. They need to take some profit. Those bulls reach
健康K线 这就是他们所能得到的 市场看跌 空头的好去处 the health bar. That's all they could get. Market is bearish. Great place for bears
重新进入 他们想把市场降到30点 他们 to re enter. They want to bring market down to the bar 30. Which they
确实如此 所以现在他们拿到了1R 这很好 did. So now they get their 1R. Which is good.
现在问题来了 或者说有问题吗 不 没有问题 实际上45 Now the problem here or is there a problem No there is no problem. 45 actually
确实收盘低于交易区间 抱歉 did close below the trading range. I'm sorry.
低于1R 这意味着空头想要继续 Below the 1R. So that means bears want to continue
下降至少一半 R 因此介于 to come down at least half R. So somewhere between
1R 和 2R 可能是延续 1R and 2R could be continuation
并在 34.75 附近获利回吐 或者他们会 and profit taking around 34.75. Or they're going to
加速下降 给我们 2R 所以这里 accelerate and come down and give us a 2R. So here
34.75 可能是下一个目标 34.75 could be the next target.
从第 45 节开始 Since bar 45
收盘价低于奖励水平 closed below the reward level.
止损位高于 39 Stops above 39
将移至 will be now moved to
这里 或者说 在缺口条中点的一半处 here. Or halfway the midpoint of the gap bar.
这就是Al使用的 但我们继续 That's what Al uses. But we continue to come
往下拉 然后这些止损就会移动 止损可能不会移动 down here. Then those stops will be moved. Stops may not move
从那里一直到 1R 除非我们来到这里 from there all the way to the 1R unless we come down to here.
因此 这可能是空头所能带来的最低水平 So probably the lowest level the bears can bring
停在那里或中间某处 to stop either there or somewhere midrange
缺口条 of a gap bar.
我把第 34 条算作第一条空头 I counted bar 34 as the first bear
腿然后暂停 35 和 leg and then is pause 35 and
第二回合36 我看到了36秒 a second leg 36. And I saw 36 second
由于那里有双底 所以腿熊被困在那里 legs bears are getting trapped there because you have a double bottom there.
所以这可能是一个多头信号 所以我说买家可能 So this is possibly a bull flag. So I said buyers are probably
已经在那里了 但我会在这里下订单 因为我不喜欢买 already there but I would put my buy order here because I don't like to buy
在空头K线上方 因为如果有熊被困在这里 above a bear bar. Because if any bears are stuck here
那些空头可能会在那里卖出 然后下跌 他们可能会把我困住 所以我宁愿 those bears could sell there and could come down and they could trap me. So I'd rather to be
绝对...我想要自信 absolutely... I want to be confident.
所以这意味着我想看到多头向我展示他们已经陷入困境 So that means I want to see bulls show me that they have trapped
熊队 他们愿意开始第二回合比赛 the bears and they're willing to go have the second leg commence.
所以我宁愿把我的买单放在 So I'd rather to put my buy order above
第33小节 我就是这么做的 所以我确实在那里数了两条腿 从34到 bar 33 and that's what I did. So I did count two legs there 34 to
36 只熊 我看到它们被困住了 36 for bears. And I saw that they got trapped
马上就看多头了 我是说看看它 陷阱太明显了 and bulls immediately. I mean look at it. Trap is so obvious.
你看到空头抛售 他们想要第二 You got bears selling. They want the second
腿 所以他们卖 现在看看K线 leg. So they sell Now look at the bar
开盘价为37 开盘时股价跳空上涨 37 open. It gapped up at the open.
因此 这些K线下面卖出了很多熊 So a lot of bears sold underneath these bars.
我不会在多头实体以下卖出 至少在它看起来 I'm not going to sell below a bull body. Not when it looks
就像第二轮多头即将开始 like a possible second bull leg about to start
所以买家可能比卖家多 然后呢 So there could be more buyers than sellers And then what did
他们会吗 所以空头卖出了那根K线的收盘价 they do So the bears sell the close of that bar
这样他们就能修好了 它掉下来了 所以它又可以继续第二段旅程了 so that they could fix it. It comes down so it makes the second leg.
但就在那里 第 37 栏是 But there bar 37 is
向你发出信号 嘿 我 signaling you something. Hey I am
开盘时出现跳空高开 你知道这意味着什么吗 gapping up at the open. You know what that means That
意味着我渴望购买 所以要么进来 means I'm eager to buy. So either get in here
或者进去因为我可能会给你你的目标 or get in there because I'm probably going to give you your target.
这就是为什么逐条阅读 This is why bar by bar reading
我认为这是交易的圣杯 我尝试过 is I think the holy grail of trading. I've tried
一切 我试过分时图表 我试过 everything. I've tried tick charts. I've tried
模式 patterns.
我什么都试过了 我会尝试……哦 如果我看看那四小时 I've tried everything. I would try to do... oh if I look at the four hour
图表和一小时图表和可能两小时图表和 chart and a one hour chart and a maybe two hour chart and a
十五分钟……甚至一分钟图表 fifteen minute... even one minute chart
我尝试过交易 但没有找到 is I tried trades and I did not find
任何成功 那将是……是的 我会的 any success. It would be... yes I would
成功的日子 然后我会把一切都还清 但我 have successful days and then I would give back everything. But I
在五分钟 两分钟和五分钟图表上取得了成功 found success with five minute two minute and five minute charts.
所以... So...
那么这是怎么回事 为什么我们不能继续往下走 So what's going on here Why can't we continue down
好吧 四十五确实关闭了裸露的实体 但可能太 Well forty five did close the bare body but it could be too
低价出售 但如果有人仍然以低于45的价格卖出 low to sell. But if anybody is still selling one tick below forty five
因为它关闭了低于一小时的裸露实体 你认为 because it closed the bare body below the one hour where do you think
空头又要抛售了 他们需要收支平衡 他们需要收支平衡 the bears are going to sell again They need to get a break even. They need to get a break even at
收盘价就在那里 所以他们卖出高于 the close there. So they sell above
裸露的K线图 因为他们想要回调 the bare bars because they want a pullback
他们想要收支平衡 and they want a break even.
现在 四十六号K线稍微收拢了牛身 Now bar forty six slightly closed the bull body.
这是一根外向上涨的蜡烛线 这是一根十字星 但它是一根外向上涨的蜡烛线 It is an outside up bar. It's a doji but it's an outside up bar.
所以这很令人兴奋 好吧 这很令人兴奋 So it's exciting okay it's exciting
多头队 所以这将是你的 the bulls. So this would be then your
半小时就到了 多头想要一个小时 但也有空头 half hour there and the bulls want one hour. But there are bears
卡在四十五 四十四 四十五以下 stuck underneath forty five forty four forty five.
所以这些人需要尽快实现收支平衡 So those guys need to be getting a break even soon.
但如果多头队得到一小时的时间 But if the bulls get their one hour
空头要么就在这里卖出 要么 bears will either sell here or
他们会尝试在这里卖出 并尝试获得突破 they will try to sell here and they're going to try to get a break
甚至在价格继续上涨之前 因为他们 even before this continues to go up because they're
现在卡在这里了 外面的K线 now stuck down here. The outside up bar
从本质上讲 当它收盘于中点上方时 by nature when it closes above its midpoint
收盘价仍是买入的可行标准 这就是为什么你 it's still a viable bar to buy its close. That's why you're
争取达到一小时的目标 getting bar forty seven trying to reach the one hour targets
这对多头来说是好事 但空头现在陷入困境 which is good for the bulls. But the bears are stuck now.
所以他们想要实现某种程度的收支平衡 So they want some kind of a break even.
所以我预计很快就会有一些卖家 也许价格在 50% 左右 So I will expect some sellers soon maybe at the fifty percent
试图出售的缺口 也许在一个 of the gap bar trying to sell maybe at the one
小时目标 他们会尽力卖出 hour target they will try to sell.
多头队试图在那里度过一小时 Bulls trying to get their one hour there and
熊正在等待他们采取 bears are waiting for them to take
获利并开始进入 profit and start entering possibly.
一些熊确实在这里卖东西 但他们什么也买不到 Some bears did sell here but they couldn't get anything.
他们无法将市场拉低至 44 点的低点和 45 点的收盘价 They couldn't bring the market down to the forty four low forty five close.
这是他们第二次进军卖出领域 So now this is their second entry into selling
可能获利 所以他们想要 into a profit taken possibly. So they want a
快速收支平衡 或者使用限价订单 quick break even. Or with the limit orders
他们测量了缺口K线的百分之五十 并且 they measure the fifty percent of the gap bar and
他们在那里卖 所以如果你 they sell there. So if you are
空头 你卖出了低于44美元的价格 因为这是后续卖出 a bear and you sold below forty four because it's a follow through selling
从第四十三栏下面 你的 from underneath bar forty three your
盈亏平衡点是四十五七十五 break even is forty five seventy five.
所以你基本上希望市场 So you are basically hoping the market
很快就会降到四十五到七十五 is going to come down quickly to forty five seventy five
并给你一个出口 但前提是 and give you an exit. But that's only if
你是一台机器 散户交易者寻找空头实体 you are a machine. Retail traders look for a bear body
接近 他们不卖这个 因为机器 close. They don't sell into this because machines
可以一小时卖 一个半小时卖 两个小时卖 can sell at the one hour sell at the one and a half and two hour.
当价格上涨并开始下降时 他们可以出售 They can sell as the price goes up and it starts to come down
他们赚钱 但散户却无法卖出 they make money. But retail traders they cannot sell
像那样坚固的保险杠 尤其是如果它还没有 a strong bull bar like that. Especially if it hasn't
关闭 因为它是未知的 closed. Because it's an unknown.
他们不知道 这里有很多看涨压力 他们看不到收盘 They don't know. It's a lot of bullish pressure here. They don't see a close.
他们什么都无法计算 所以这是机器 They can't calculate anything. So this is machine
以这样的价格出售 但是 selling at these levels. But
如果您是卖家 那么您可以在这里卖出 因为您有理由 if you are a seller then you sell here because you have a reason.
原因是什么 你知道多头会获利了结 What is the reason You know bulls are going to take profit.
所以如果你是一只熊 上次你 So if you are a bear last time you
最新售价可能低于四十四 我说这将是你的 sold maybe below forty four latest I said that's going to be your
平均盈亏平衡点 如果你卖出了 average breakeven. If you sold a close of
四十五 我们就在这里 forty five we are here.
这就是你的盈亏平衡点 如果你卖得低于这个价位 显然 That was your breakeven. If you sold below obviously
他们确实做到了 低于45分 你已经达到了平均水平 they did. Below forty five you already got your average
盈亏平衡 所以你希望这根47的K线以看跌收盘 并且 breakeven. So you are hoping that this bar forty seven closes bearish and
它会一直下降到四十五点或四十五点的低点 it comes all the way down to the close of forty five or the low of forty five
每个人都能完全收支平衡 目前他们已经收支平衡 that everybody gets their full breakeven. now they are breakeven
加 他们正在赚钱 但如果收盘价高于中点 plus. They are making money. But if the bar closes above the midpoint
平均面积 那么这将是一个盈亏平衡 每个空头 the average area then this is going to be a breakeven and every bear
即将退出 多头可以进场 好了 现在空头已经收紧了实体 is going to exit and the bulls can come in. Al . So the bears now close the body
看跌 那么你认为会发生什么 看跌者会试图卖出 bearish. So what do you think is going to happen Bears will try to sell it
进一步下降到44个低点 实际盈亏平衡点第一 further down to the forty four low actual breakeven number one
四十五接近 实际盈亏平衡点为二 forty five close actual breakeven number two
最终盈亏平衡点低于或低于最低点 and the ultimate breakeven one tick below or the low
四十五 但如果K线 of forty five. But if the bar
如果 47 家公司的收盘价没有低于平均盈亏平衡点 我们的股价就会上涨 forty seven were not closed below the average breakeven we would have gone up.
所以你可以看到机器是如何从 1 R 进入的 So you see how machines enter at the one R.
获利了结 一些散户也进入 Profit taking. And some retail traders also enter
限价单 现在其他散户交易者正在寻求绝对确认 with limit order. Now other retail traders looking for absolute confirmation
出售时 他们会这样衡量 如果我卖得低于 to sell they measure it like this. If I sold below
或第四十五小节结束时 现在我有一只熊 or the close of bar forty five now I have a bear
实体收于其最低点或任何空头实体 我要 body closing on its low or any bear body. I am going
从那根K线的收盘价开始测量 你好 我 to measure from the close of that bar and hello I
现在已经收支平衡了 所以他们持有 am breaking even now plus. So they are holding
现在价格可能跌至低于一个刻度 now price probably down to one tick below
45 才能完全收支平衡 如果实体闭合正确 the forty five to get a full breakeven. If the body closes
低于45美元的低点 他们就会卖出 但如果没有 below the forty five low then they would sell. But if it doesn't
那么这只不过是盈亏平衡而已 突然间 我们也可能看到多头 then this is nothing but a breakeven. Suddenly we could get the bulls too.
所以当我致力于实现收支平衡时 如果我看到 So when I am committed to taking breakeven and if I see
熊的实体 我要从我被卡住的地方测量 the bear body I am going to measure from where I got stuck
空头实体关闭信号 to where the bear body closed signal
我将采取中间值作为平均盈亏平衡点 and I am going to take average breakeven in the middle.
这就是你八成的盈亏平衡 你得到了一个很棒的 That's your eighty percent breakeven. You are getting a great
演示就在这里 现在 游戏开始了 demonstration here. So now game is on.
空头希望以低于平均水平的价格收盘 而平均水平就在这里 Bears want to close at below the average level which is here.
所以在大约三分十四秒内 如果他们设法关闭它 So in about three minutes and fourteen seconds if they manage to close that
实体就在这里 那些熊会卖 body here those bears will sell
一直到这里和这里 all the way down here and here.
这样你就知道你会得到后续结果 That's how you know you would get follow through.
如果他们失败了 那就收支平衡了 And if they fail then that was a breakeven
然后你退出 熊无法关闭 and you exit. Bears could not close
所以最终实现了完全收支平衡 而不是完全收支平衡 平均值 so that ended up becoming a full breakeven not full breakeven average
空头盈亏平衡 但价格栏还没关 所以我无法判断 我无法 breakeven for bears. But the bar hasn't closed so I can't really judge I can't
确实这么说 但现在确实如此 现在看起来 really say it but now it is. It looks like now the
多头正在买入盈亏平衡点 因为他们 bulls are buying into the breakeven because they are
停留在 46 以上 所以他们想回到这个水平 stuck above forty six so they want to get back up there.
而且这是一场反弹 And plus it's a rally
第一个低点 没人会卖 买家可能在那里 first low. No one is going to sell. Buyers are probably there.
所以你可以看到 你可以预期 46 个高危人群会接受检测 这就是他们 So you can see you can expect forty six high to be tested and that's what they're
尝试去做 看看发生了什么 trying to do. Look what happened
价格K线位于 47 处 多头价格位于 46 处上方 with bar forty seven. Bulls stuck above forty six.
他们实现了盈亏平衡 他们低价买入 然后他们 They got their breakeven. They bought lower and they
很快就达到了盈亏平衡 实际上 该条价格比 46 上涨了一个刻度 quickly got a breakeven. That bar actually went one tick above forty six.
我不喜欢买四十六 是的 这是外面的 I don't like buying forty six. Yes it's an outside
K线 任何买衣服的人都会赚钱 他们可以 up bar. Anybody buys the clothes will make money. They could
在那里下买单 问题是它本身就是一个十字星 put a buy order there. Problem here is that it is a doji on its own.
它与两个熊栏重叠 或者甚至可能是 And it's overlapping with two bear bars or maybe even part of
旁边的第三根K线 所以对我来说 这是限价单 可能会有 the third bar to the side. So to me that's a limit order. There could be
46 岁以上的卖家数量与 46 岁以上的买家数量一样多 sellers above forty six as much as buyers above forty six.
因此 由于降幅更大 这意味着 So since it's coming down more strong that means
卖家比买家强大得多 that the sellers are a lot more stronger than the buyers.
但机器上去了 所以他们给自己一个 But machines went up there so they gave themselves a
盈亏平衡 但看看发生了什么 这些空头 breakeven. But look what happened there. These bears
还是无法合上熊身 still cannot close a bear body.
所以这意味着多头获胜 他们 So that means that bulls win and they
现在可能想要收盘一个多头实体 坚实的多头实体 probably now want to close a bull body solid bull body
超过46美元 如果他们这样做 价格可能会更高 above forty six high. If they do that they could go higher.
我现在看到 I now see a
一点点 tiny bit of
我有点 I'm a little bit
测量得晚了 但那是多头 late measuring that but that was the bull
这个小小的目标就是一个小时 one hour target for this tiny little
旗帜加上交易区间 flag plus the trading range.
多头队想要两个小时 但他们需要接近实体 他们甚至可以 Bulls want the two hour but they need to close the body. They could even get
三个小时 如果他们开始收盘 记住我说过 如果多头到来 the three hour. If they start to close remember I said if the bulls come in
这是第二回合 他们试图达到三十分的低点 and that's the second leg they're trying to get to the thirty low
他们正试图达到31人的目标 但是这个缺口 and they're trying to get to the thirty one body. But this gap
仍然很重要 空头希望保持缺口 他们 is still important. Bears want to keep the gap open and they
想要继续抛售 所以现在我们正处于第二阶段 多头需要 want to continue to sell. So now we're in the second leg. Bulls need to
收盘价高于46美元 形成多头实体 然后它们可以 close above forty six high a bull body. Then they can go
更高 但不幸的是 在四十三岁中 higher. But unfortunately at the upper third of forty three
到中点 卖家正在等待 to the midpoint sellers are waiting.
因此 这最终可能会成为一种剥头皮行为 而空头可以保持缺口 So this could end up becoming a scalp and the bears can keep the gap
开放 如果缺口缩小 我们就会上涨 现在 open. If the gap closes then we're going to go up. Now where
我们可以去吗 我们可以去最近的 can we go We could go up to the most recent is
卖出高潮上三分之一或高点或某处 sell climax upper third or high or somewhere
在中间 这就是卖方将小幅回调的地方 也是 in the middle. That's where the seller is going to be minor pullback and that's where
卖家又要出现了 所以我会 the sellers are going to show up again. So I would
将其视为一次头皮攻击 而不是一次波段攻击 treat this as a scalp not a swing.
但无论如何 Yet anyhow.
多头需要向我展示一些强劲的上涨势头 现在 Bulls need to show me some strong moves up. And now
他们之所以苦苦挣扎 是因为空头仍然占据着这个市场 they're struggling because bears still own this market.
我们低于移动平均水平 他们想 We are below the moving average. They want to
到这里和这里 这意味着他们需要关闭空头 come down to here and here. So that means they need to close a bear
低于四十七点的收盘价 body below the close of forty seven to get the
空头向下突破 bear breakout to the downside.
对于多头来说 他们必须拿下空头的中点 For bulls they have to take out the midpoint of the bear
缺口体 它们必须开始与 gap body. They have to start overlapping with
实体三十一 如果它们开始与多头实体重叠 body thirty one. If they start to overlap with the bull body
三十一 他们可以变得更加乐观 thirty one they can get a lot more bullish.
但目前看来 情况对他们来说并不乐观 所以 But now it doesn't look good for them. So
你可以看到多头有多少次到达了一小时 you can see how many times bulls got to the one hour.
它们似乎也无法靠近它 即使两个小时它们也能到达 但是 They can't seem to close above it too. Even two hour they reach but
但这不是设定 所以这是假的 this wasn't the setup though. So this is a false
突破 这个微小的上方没有多头收盘 breakout. There's no bull close above this tiny little
交易区间 现在 如果这个K线收盘于牛身 那么 trading range. Now if this bar closes bull body then
我们会回到这里 或者也许回到这里 或者也许回到那里 we're going to get back up here or maybe here or maybe there.
但我需要看到多头真正收拢牛身 否则空头 But I need to see bulls actually close the bull body otherwise bears
可以继续下降 can continue to come down.
因此尚未做出决定 So decision has not been made.
空头苦苦挣扎 多头也苦苦挣扎 Bears struggling bulls struggling.
现在看看第四十六条 Now look at the bar forty six.
这又是一面熊旗吗 嗯 Is this another bear flag Well
这是一个不错的结局 所以这是他们第一次试图设陷阱 it's a decent close so that's the first time they try to trap
他们做得很好 熊 但他们似乎无法关闭 it and they did a good job bears. But they can't seem to close
体面的熊实体 这是个问题 所以他们卖了 decent bear bodies. That's a problem. So they sold
低于四十七 但他们无法取出 immediately underneath forty seven but they couldn't take out
强势多头四十六开低走 the strong bull bar forty six open and low.
所以现在他们再次尝试 但是 So now they're trying once again but
我认为多头想要再次上涨 所以 I think bulls want a second leg up. So
空头需要收盘时出现非常强劲的空头实体 我才会相信 bears need to close a very strong bear body for me to believe that
他们是负责人 否则 they are in charge. Otherwise
多头也可能表现得相当强劲 bulls can come in pretty strong as well.
然后空头将被迫在低于三十条线的某个位置卖出 And then the bears will be forced to sell somewhere underneath bar thirty.
那么谁会赢呢 如果空头 So who's going to win here If the bears
开始关闭熊的实体 取出四十九 do close start to close bear bodies taking out the forty nine
低 四十九开 然后取出四十六 low forty nine open. Then taking out the forty six
开放 那么 是的 他们可以出售 可能取决于这个 open. Then yes they can sell. It could be up on this
往下压 往上压 往下压 往上压 所以这是楔形顶 down on this up on this down on this up on this. So it's a wedge top
继续降低高位熊旗形 我们仍然有可能创下新低 lower high bear flag still. And still we can make a new low.
如果他们失败了 If they fail
我们必须等待空头价格上涨 没人愿意低价抛售 we have to wait for bears to sell higher. Nobody wants to sell low
显然如此 所以它才会横着走 apparently. So that's why it's going sideways.
多头随时都可能占据主导地位 And the bulls can take over any given time.
好吧 多头现在试图回到他们 Al so bulls now trying to get back to where they
就是这两个 R were which was these two R.
他们想去那里 想关闭实体 但是 They want to go there and they want to close a body but
我仍需要关闭多头 I still need the bull closed.
因此这仍然是剥头皮交易 空头仍在试图平仓 So this is still scalping bears still trying to close.
我还没看到多头突破 这有多成功 我不知道 I still don't have a bull breakout. So how successful is this I don't know.
这只不过是剥头皮而已 It's nothing but scalping.
这是限价令 这是铁丝网 It's a limit order. It's barbed wire.
所以我必须给空头留出下跌的空间 So I have to give space to bears to come down
并测试 46 低点 多头继续 测试 and test the forty six low bulls to go on test the
四十七种高潮 或者其中任何一种 forty seven highs or any of these
他们确实这么做了 所以它可以来回移动 wicks which they did. So it could go back and forth back
并向前迈进 非常困难 and forward. Very difficult.
空头依然难以买入 因此 即使 Bears stay difficult to buy. So even the
多头再次上涨 但空头随即开始下跌 bulls got a second leg up but immediately bears started to swing down.
他们想要进一步下降 但有一件事 They want further down but one thing that
他们失败了 这些十五分钟的K线没有一个收于三个 R 以下 they failed none of these fifteen minute bars closed below the three R.
所以我不知道我们是否能达到 4 R 我们真的需要关闭 15 分钟 So I don't know if we can get to the four R. We really need to close the fifteen minute
六分钟内看跌信号足够 然后取出 bar in six minutes bearish enough and take out
最后空头还有十五分钟 否则我们就会反转 the last bear fifteen minute bar otherwise we're just going to reverse back up.
空头将此视为熊旗形 Bears see this as a bear flag
但他们需要非常强劲的空头收盘 but they need very strong bear closes.
比四十五岁好多了 Much better than like say almost like forty five
K线四十五 这意味着他们会得到突破 然后他们可以 bar forty five. That means they would get the breakout and then they could
到这里 然后又下来到这里 那么谁会赢呢 get to here and then come down to here. So who will win
他们现在看起来表现不错 熊 They seem to be doing good now bears
但他们只需完成任务 然后以看跌姿态收盘 but they just have to finish the job and close the body bearish.
然后他们就可以卖了 五十块钱 Then they can sell. Decent bar fifty
我喜欢它关闭的方式 I like the way it closed
所以现在空头会试图抛售 so now bears will try to sell
但它没有在我想要的地方关闭 它没有取出 but it didn't close where I want it to close. It did not take out
的中点 the midpoint of
这个区间 瞧 这对熊来说是个问题 this range. See that's a problem for bears.
所以现在 如果他们以低于 So now if they sold underneath
多头行情下 他们被套牢了 所以现在他们看到一个交易区间 他们 a bull bar they're stuck. So now they see a trading range they
在高价位出售 并试图实现收支平衡 sell at the highs and they're trying to break even.
那么他们的盈亏平衡点在哪里呢 最低是49美元 So where's their break even The low of forty nine.
熊队在那里表现出色 拿下 50 分 Bears did a good job there with fifty
但它没有在它应该关闭的地方关闭 也就是实体 它应该 but it didn't close where it's supposed to close the body. It should have been
在该中点黑虚线下方一个刻度 one tick below that midpoint dash black line there.
那么这是一件好事吗 So is it a good
陷阱K线 他们在诱捕牛群吗 trap bar Are they trapping the bulls
本来会更好 所以它仍然 Would have been better. So it's just still
很难 空头在这里看到了一面旗帜 他们想要 difficult. Bears see a flag here. They want
出售 他们想把价格降到 45 to sell and they want to bring price down to the forty five
低 四十六低区 甚至可能更低 low forty six low area maybe even lower.
但这里他们需要再多一个熊栏 But they need one more bear bar here.
51 需要收盘低于 50 Fifty one needs to close below fifty
开始卖出 to start the selling.
如果他们真的能够关闭 那将是一个很好的确认 And it would be even a good confirmation if they can actually close
收盘价低于四十五的空头实体 a bear body below the close of forty five.
然后更多的空头将会抛售 Then more bears will sell.
所以它仍然在 So it's still very up in the
空气 买家年龄低于48岁 air. Buyers are below forty eight
低于46 熊试图 嘿 below forty six. Bears trying to hey
我们开始了一件事 就必须完成它 所以至少让我们行动起来 we started something we've got to finish it so at least let's go.
而 testy 则接近四十五 And testy is forty five close.
我认为他们会做得更好 I think they're going to do a lot better than that.
它只需要出售 It just needs to sell.
我喜欢绘画 你可以学到很多东西 I love paint drawing. You can learn a lot.
这就是我学到的 就是这样 所以我会看一切 And that's how I learned it. And there you go. So I look at everything
作为交易区间 as a trading range.
我喜欢看到 And I like to see
这里的卖家希望在交易区间的顶部设限 sellers here they want to trap at the top of a trading range.
另外 在这里卖出更好 因为这是一个突破块 Plus it's a lot better to sell here because it's a break
下跌 所以无论如何都是看跌的 down so it's bearish anyway.
买家总是会在这里 尽量避免 And buyers always will be here try to prevent
突破 但我确实说过我们可能会降到 45 the breakout but I did say we're probably going to come down to the forty five
低 就在那里 low. And that there
正是我想要的 is doing exactly what I want it.
现在空头获得了 1R 但是这发生得太快了 Now bears got the 1R but it happened too quick.
这件事发生时并没有得到证实 所以现在 It happened without the confirmation. So now
如果你卖掉 他们可能会陷害你 因为他们正在获利 if you sell okay they could trap you because they're taking profit
那里 所以现在卖掉有点太晚了 不是吗 但是说这个K线 there. So it's kind of too late to sell isn't it But say this bar
实际上以突破条的形式收盘 没问题 这样更好 actually closes as a breakout bar. That's fine. It's better
它在那里比在这里更接近 因为那里 that it closes near there than here. Because there's
空间不大 然后你可以卖掉收盘价 not much of a space. Then you could sell the close
您可以卖出回调 然后在下面放置另一个卖单 you could sell the pullback and then you could put another sell order underneath.
当价格下跌时 你进入市场并获利 As it comes down you enter and then you take some profit
给你 也许你留个跑腿的 我不知道 所以现在还在来 here. Maybe you leave a runner for more. I don't know. So now it's still coming
下跌 任何限价卖出的人 down. Anybody who sold with limit
订单就在那里 我说这是一面寻找较低高点的熊旗 orders there I said this is a bear flag looking for a lower high.
往下 往上 往下 往上 往下 Down on this up on this down on this up on this down
在这上面 这是楔形顶部 低高 on this. That's a wedge top lower high
卖出 所以你看到一个好看的空头实体 sell. So you see a good looking bear body
收盘价低于50美元 许多人会卖出 closing on its low bar fifty. Many will sell
少了一个 他们确实做到了 所以现在他们赚钱了 one tick under. And they did. So now they're making money.
所以我们最终得出一个 R 他们正在获利 So we came down to one R. They're taking profit.
正在弹跳 目标是关闭K线51 It's bouncing. The goal is to close bar fifty one
下方看跌 bearish below okay the
突破点 然后回调卖出 收盘卖出 breakout point. Then sell with the pullback sell the close
然后一路下跌并测试 51 个低点 and then come all the way down and test the fifty one low.
然后继续进入两个 R 如果你不能 And then continue into two R. If you can't
把无聊的事情变得有趣 take something so boring and turn it into fun
你将永远拥有 you will always have
很棒的时光 无论你做什么 一切 great time. No matter what you do everything
会很有趣 有些人会找到你 will be interesting. Some people will find you
我要找的词是什么 比如“超级” is what is the word I'm looking for Like super
有句很粗俗的俚语 他们会说 哦 他太挑剔了 there's a really bad slang. They're going to say oh he's so anal.
这是一个可怕的词 但它是一个用来形容人的词 It's a horrible word but it's a word that describes people
非常注重细节 that are so detail oriented and
书呆子 是啊 但没人喜欢 nerd. Yeah but nobody likes a
工作中的人 我实际上用这个词称呼过某人 person at work. I actually called somebody that word.
他知道他是 但他是我的上司 怎么 And he knew he was but he was my superior. What
虽然他不是我的上司 但他是一名经理 而我是一名专家 Not my superior but he was a manager and I was a specialist.
我打了电话 告诉了我认为 And I called it and I told somebody who I thought
是朋友 这就是人们常说的 不要抱怨更高的 was a friend. This is what they say. Don't complain about higher
向你认为是朋友的人打招呼 而那个朋友 ups to someone who you think is a friend. And that friend
去告诉那个我称呼这个词的人 went and told the guy who I called that word.
因为他确实如此 他真的来找我 还笑了 但我最终 Because he was and he actually came to me and he laughed. But I ended up
在人力资源部门 我最终总是进入人力资源部门 总是如此 in HR. I always end up in HR always.
总有事 我说某人 要么 There's always something I said somebody either
当他们面对面的时候 那时我在企业界学到 to their face. That's when I learned in corporate world
永远不要在背后说人坏话 当面说话 你想说点什么 never talk behind anybody. Talk to their face. You want to say something
如果你真的想骂人 就当面骂他们 to someone and you want to really call them something say it to their face.
好吗 而且要当着别人的面说出来 这样就没人能把你带到 Okay And say it in front of other people. So no one can take you to
人力资源部会说 嘿 这个人在做这做那 你已经公开做了 HR and say hey this person is doing this and that. You're already doing it out in the open.
你已经承诺了 就这样 然后你可以说 是的 我 You're already committing. So that's it. And then you can say yep I
因为你就是这样的人 所以才这么叫你 就在那时 我明白了我的 called you that because you are that. That's when I learned my
教训 永远不要跟任何人说闲话 lesson. Don't ever gossip to anyone.
即使你认为那个人是你的好朋友 但他们不是 他们很可能想抢你的工作 Even if you think that person is your good friend they are not. Probably they want your job.
那么 但是 猜猜怎么着 So but guess what
有一种东西叫因果报应 我也被这样称呼过 有人叫 There's something called karma. I was called that word as well. Somebody called
我之所以会这样 是因为我曾经如此 我也会嘲笑 因为我曾经如此 me that because I was. And I laugh at it too because I am.
这让我变得非常敏锐 这让我成为一个人 That makes me super sharp. That makes me a person
基本上可以分析一些东西 需要一些东西 who basically can analyze something that takes something that's
太无聊了 别人看不出来 我却看出来 为什么 因为我太努力了 so boring and people don't see it but I see it. Why Because I work so hard.
我很清楚它要做什么 我想分两步 I know exactly what it's going to do. I want to be two steps
领先于机器 现在 我不能像 ahead of the machines. Now I can't trade like
机器 但如果我提前知道它们要做什么 machines. But if I know what they're going to do ahead of time
这让我成为赢家 所以当你 that makes me a winner okay So when you
达到那个水平 你就会明白我的意思 你将会 get to that level you'll know what I mean. And you're going to
把它当成荣誉勋章戴上 如果有人叫你混蛋 wear that like a badge of honor. If somebody calls you an anal okay
这意味着你分析一切事物到一个你可以 That means you analyze everything to a level that you can bring
死马复活 所以你想成为那样的人 a dead horse back to life. So you want to be that person
在我看来 当谈到交易时 when it comes to trading in my opinion.
顺便说一句 因果总是有的 And there's always karma by the way.
因果报应总是困扰着我 总是如此 Karma always gets me. Always.
我知道如果我做了坏事 我会 And I know if I do something bad I'm like
因果报应会降临到我头上 然后突然间 因果报应就降临了 karma's going to get me. And then suddenly here comes karma.
不管怎样 好吧 Anywho al .
贝尔拿了2R 太棒了 Bear's got the 2R. That's fantastic.
他们能来这里吗 K线52 Can they show up here Bar 52
真的很棒 可能会有人跟进这里 is really nice. Might get followed through here.
下一个目标可能是3125 Next target is possibly 3125.
贝尔斯登的股价确实低于 Bear's did sell below
51. 51.
他们赚钱了 在2R赚了一些利润 They were making money. Took some profit at the 2R.
无法关闭低于 52 的实体 Could not close the body below 52.
抱歉 是2R 所以利润票加剧了 I'm sorry the 2R. So profit ticket intensified.
但空头正在赚钱 所以他们可能会在回调时卖出 But there were bears making money so they were probably going to sell the pullback.
所以他们必须收支平衡 他们不开心 So they have to break even. They're not hapPOI.
53 号K线是一根强势多头K线 Bar 53 is a strong bull bar.
它本来应该卖掉的 所以这可能是 It was supposed to sell. So this could be
回调 空头可能仍然能够 the pullback. Bears might still be able to
实现盈亏平衡 如果 53 号K线收盘上涨 会怎样 get a break even. What if the bar 53 closes very bullish
然后许多空头将从该线上方退出 Then many bears will exit from above this bar.
或者下一个 第二次是空头 Or the next one. Second time the bears
未能收盘形成空头实体 因此 现在多头想要快速进场 failed to close a bear body. So now bulls want to come in fast.
他们想开始关闭好看的保险杠 但是 They want to start closing good looking bull bars. But
那么 被困在强势 52 线之下的空头又会怎样呢 what about the bears stuck underneath a strong bar 52
他们仍然需要 They still need to
实现收支平衡 所以最好是市场 get a break even. So it would be better if the market
实际上至少测试了 52 的低点 actually tests the low of 52 at the very least.
然后它又反转了 And then it reversed back up.
它测试了 52 的低点 但它 It tested the low of 52 but it
一点儿都没动 哦 也许动了 我不知道 真的动了吗 didn't go one tick. Oh maybe it did. I don't know. Did it
不 没有 No it didn't.
所以你看 空头又开始赚钱了 但他们 So there you go. Bears are back to making money but they have
收盘看跌 继续下跌至下一个目标 即 to close the bar bearish to continue to come down to the next target which is
31.25 31.25.
我们最终可能会迎来反转 We might get a reversal finally
大约 2 点钟 或者 around 2 o'clock. Or
是K线60左右 如果它继续 is bar 60ish if it continues
下来 就这样 to come down. There you go.
好吧 也去头皮一下 太棒了 Al . Scalp that one too. Fantastic.
最有可能的是目标为 51.25 51.25 is target most likely.
我从哪里可以得到这个目标 Where do I get that target
让我们来看看 Let's see.
等等 我不需要那个 Hold on. I don't need that.
所以如果我去15分钟 So if I go to 15 minute.
摆脱它 Get rid of that.
这就是目标 所以让我们摆脱 That is the target. So let's get rid of
那 51.21 that. 51.21.
我说过 25 吗 Did I say 25
因为我测量不正确 Because I'm measuring it incorrectly.
开始吧 大约是 51.25 Okay here we go. Is 51.25ish.
我想说 I would say
25.50 25.50.
那里做错了什么 Doing something wrong there.
开始了 Here we go.
24.75 24.75.
它应该在那里 那是4R It should come down there. That is the 4R.
1 2 3 4 我们很接近了 1 2 3 4. We're so close.
我希望在我们回头之前先进行测试 I like to see that tested before we reverse back up.
我醒来时... I woke up with...
事实上 这件事昨晚就发生了 Actually it happened last night.
我好像无法用右脚迈步 我无法把重量 I can't seem to step on my foot. I can't put the weight
在右脚踝上 on the ankle.
我爬在地板上试图去厨房 I was crawling on the floor trying to get to the kitchen.
我说 我没办法这么做 所以我开始问一个家庭成员 I said there's no way I can do this. So I started asking a family member
做事 to do things.
每隔 10 分钟我就会询问一些事情 我会发短信 Every 10 minutes I'm asking for something. I'm sending text messages.
你能给我那个吗 你能给我这个吗 我觉得这游戏玩完了 因为 Can you give me that Can you give me this I think jig is up because
我没有收到任何回复 I'm not getting any response.
他们已经跟我完了 They're done with me.
恐怕我得花点时间 I'm afraid I'm going to have to take a little bit
因为我真的很饿 而且我没有吃任何东西 of a long break because I am really hungry and I didn't get any
午餐 我想我只是去烧点水 然后吃点 lunch. I think I'm just going to boil some water and get some
茶 我不能走路 所以 tea. And I can't walk so
我这里有助行器 我用左脚和助行器走路 I have a walker here. I walk on my left foot and the walker.
它有轮子 所以我可以飞 It's got wheels so I fly on the
左脚 但无论如何 只是在等待 left foot. But anyway just waiting for
我们要达到的目标就是 5125 our target to meet which is there 5125.
然后我要看看多头是否会很快出现 And then I'm going to see if the bulls can start to show up soon.
有时我们离得很近 然后他们就开始出现了 Sometimes we come so close and then they start to show up
因为他们想捕捉那些 early because they want to trap those
空头仍持有某种非常明显的目标 bears still holding for some kind of a very obvious target.
但我会等待 But I'm going to wait.
我将等待那个目标实现 I'm going to wait for that target to meet.
不 我对 Aleve 过敏 所以我不能 No I am allergic to Aleve so I can't really
拿着 take that.
而且我们没有 我想我可以接个广告 Plus we don't have any. I think I might take an ad
不过 bill though.
这不是久坐的生活方式 It's not the sedentary lifestyle.
我不知道 我刚站起来 走着走着 突然踩不动了 I don't know. I just got up and I was walking and suddenly I can't step on
我的脚 我想 这叫做衰老 my foot. It's called getting old I think.
我不知道 我吃了点肾 I don't know. I had some kidney
我的右肾疼痛 my kidney was hurting
两天前和昨天我确实感受到了这一点 two days ago and yesterday I was really feeling it.
我实际上口头上对某人说过这样的话 我不 这听起来不像 I actually verbally said something to someone like I don't this doesn't sound
感觉很好 然后我的脚 like it feels good. And then my foot
开始了 我不知道 我可能需要去看医生 started. I don't know. I might need to go see someone.
抱歉 它只是变老了 Sorry it's just getting old.
我只是认为这就是全部了 I'm just thinking that's all there is to it.
我可以数到三条腿 I can count three legs down.
这是第一条腿 向后拉是第二条腿 Here's a leg one pull back is leg two
拉回第三条腿 最终 pull back leg three. Eventually
我会把它当作 I'm going to take that as a
預計目標 projected target.
和 And
由于预计目标优先 since projected target comes first
我们最终会回到这里 we're going to pull back to here eventually.
但在某处 But somewhere here
目标就在某处 is somewhere in there is the target
区域 我们将撤回到这里 area. We will pull back to here.
甚至可能测试 22 号K线 但是 Might even test bar 22 but
我还不确定 I'm not sure yet.
我不知道 卖家大概55岁左右 I don't know probably seller is about 55
54号开门 我不相信这家K线 54 open. I wouldn't trust this bar
以实现良好的反转 因为第 55 条并不是良好的买入信号线 for a good reversal because bar 55 is not a good buy signal bar.
它看起来 我们称之为“踢球者” 所以 It looks what we call it a kicker. So
多头正试图将其踢开并上涨 bulls are trying to kick it open and just go up
相当快 但我们把这个4R落下了 pretty fast. But we left this 4R behind.
所以 请小心 卖家可能就在那里 So just be careful sellers could be up there.
如果收盘价非常看涨怎么办 What if the bar closes very bullish
然后许多空头将开始退出 Then many bears will start to exit
从上面 取决于它关闭的程度 如果它关闭 from above depending on how far it closes. If it closes
远离趋势线 空头趋势线 是 far from the trend line bear trend line is
多头可以很快在下一次回调时买入 bulls can buy the next pullback very quickly.
我们可以达到移动平均线并进一步达到预计目标 And we can reach up to the moving average and further up to the projected target.
但是 由于我们把目标抛在了后面 But since we left the target behind
我可能说的是 55 岁以上的卖家 probably I said sellers above 55 and
54 的开局 我们刚刚测试了 54 的开局 the open of 54. We just tested the open of 54
56 号K线高 所以 一些卖家已经进入 with bar 56 high. So some sellers already entered
因为他们希望继续下跌 because they want continuation down.
做市商会试图引诱你 Market makers will try to entice you
通过向你展示不合时宜的多头买入来吸引购买 into buying by showing you untimely bull buy
比如第 56 条 这是一次不错的多头买入 such as bar 56. It was a nice looking bull buy
我甚至说这可能是一个惊喜 但是 and I even said it might be a kicker. But what are
他们真的踢得好吗 你知道 除了他们自己 they really kicking You know other than themselves.
如果你在K线关门前进入 你会后悔的 因为我们离开了 If you enter without the bar closed you'll be kicking yourself because we left
后面的空头目标 也就是15分钟 the bear target behind which is the 15 minute
前 15 分钟开盘区间 first 15 minute opening range
4R. 所以 我仍然要给这些空头一个机会 4R. So I have to still give these bears a chance here.
如果市场决定成为 If the market decides to become
如果很快就会看涨 我会买入 但我并不着急 bullish soon enough I will buy but I don't have a rush.
我这里不着急 多头队试图前进 I don't have any rush here. Bulls try to make their way
最多9至10点区域 up to 9 to 10 point area.
他们刚刚拿到10分 他们可能会获利 They just got their 10 point. They might take some profit
或继续上涨 or continue to go up.
那么下一个目标是 Then the next target would be
51.39 我想说 51.39. I would say
可能是 15 分 也可能是 14 分 could be 15 points could be 14 somewhere.
我要标记 14 I'm gonna mark 14.
或者 甚至可以是20分 我给19分 Or it could be even 20 points. I'll mark 19.
所以 我们必须 So we just have to
收盘这根K线 看涨 然后 close this bar bullish and then
继续上涨 我们 continue to go up. We are
大约在13到14点区域 around the 13 to 14 point area.
因此 一些获利回吐 So some profit taking
可能会发生 或者我们将继续加速到 19 或 20 may happen or we're just gonna keep accelerating up to the 19 or 20
点 我预计这里会出现一些获利回吐 point. I would expect a little bit of profit taking here.
可能降到 3 分左右 3 3.5 Maybe come down 3 points or something 3 3.5
先向下移动 然后再向上移动 points down before going back up.
我确实说过是2点钟 我喜欢 I did say that is 2 o'clock. I like to
看到某种反转 要么是2点 要么是 see some kind of a reversal either 2 o'clock or
第 60 栏 因此 2 点钟方向出现反转 bar 60. So 2 o'clock reversal came in
早些时候 这很棒 earlier which was great.
我希望看到进一步的抛售 我的意思是 他们仍然可以卖出 I wanted to see further sell off. I mean they could still sell
信不信由你 它们仍然可能掉下来 因为它们 believe it or not. They could still come down because what they're
他们的做法是将比例提高到 50% doing is they're going up to the 50%.
看到了吗 卖家来了 因为那些卖家 See Sellers are here. Because those sellers
他们想要 4R 这就是 4R they wanted the 4R. This was the 4R.
这是 15 分钟的开盘区间 1 2 3 4 That's the 15 minute opening range. 1 2 3 4.
所以 如果他们被困在这里 仍然坚持 So if they're stuck here still holding
你知道 我称其为 and kind of you know I call this like a
大清早就被抢劫了 robbed blind early in the daylight.
所以 你得找个地方卖 所以 可能是10点 14点 So you're gonna have to sell somewhere. So it could be 10 point 14
点 看看那14点 然后获利了结 point. Look at that 14 point. And then take profit happens
是半个 R 那里可能有一些卖家 to be the half R. It could be some sellers there.
所以 还有人持有吗 在哪儿卖 So anybody still holding sell there somewhere
在此期间 他们可能会实现盈亏平衡 因此 空头想要回调 in between they could get a break even. So the bears want to pull back.
但3个保险杠 保险杠越来越大 But 3 bull bars bars getting bigger
随着价格上涨 那里有多头压力 所以 空头 as it goes up there's bull pressure there. So the bears are
急于出售 甚至在它上涨到 rushing to sell this and get a break even before it goes up to
20点 所以 如果回调只是 the 20 point. So if the pull back is only
比如 5 6 点 并且不能低于 like 5 6 points and it cannot close below
6点 那么就没人会卖了 6 point then no one's gonna sell
并预期 10 分 所以 你不想看到 and expect 10 point. So you don't want to see
空头收盘价低于6点 所以 我会这样做 bears close a bear body below the 6 point. So I'll do this
就像那样 如果空头收盘价低于 like that. If bears close below
6 分 他们会想要 10 分 至少 9 到 10 分 6 point they will want a 10 point at least 9 to 10
点向下 他们甚至可以选择 15 到 20 点向下 point down. They could even go for a 15 to 20 point down.
这将使任何卖出回调的人 That would bring anyone selling the pull back at the
一半R 因为它们收盘价低于该水平 它们失败了 下跌了 half R because they closed below it. They failed came down
获得完整的 R 目标 它上升到 R 的一半 to get the full R target. It goes up to the half R
空头正在抛售 如果现在收盘价低于6点 and bears are selling. If they can now close below the 6 point
这些机器将从9点到10点开始计数 但如果 those machines will start counting 9 to 10 point. But if
它失败了 超过 14 点并关闭了牛栏 it fails and goes above 14 point and closes the bull bar
预计这些多头将达到 19 到 20 点 expect these bulls to get to the 19 to 20 point.
我会标记 20 但我们可以测试 19 然后从那里下来 I'll mark the 20 but we could test the 19 and then come down from there.
所以 这不太利空 而且看跌 So this is not very bearish. And bears
确实以 50% 的价格卖出去了 did sell at the 50 percent.
他们真的希望把门槛降到 6 以下 They're really hoping to close the bar below the 6
点 如果他们成功做到这一点 point. If they manage to do that
然后他们会在那里寻找 10 分 then they will look for a 10 point there.
就是这样 Okay so that's that.
如果他们做不到呢 如果收盘上涨呢 What if they can't What if this closes bullish
然后它就继续上涨 多头 Then it's a continuation. It just goes up. Bulls
想要 20 分 他们可以得到 want 20 point which they can get it.
但我也不想从 56 But I also wouldn't want to measure from the 56
低 我会从57开始测量 low. I would measure it from the 57
价格低 因为买家就在那里 那么 low because that's where the buyers were. So then
20分就到了 他们仍然可以拿到 但他们只需要 20 points be there. They could still get it but they just need
关闭以上 to close above
最高温度为 58 the high of 58.
所以 熊仍然被困在那里 So bears are still stuck down there.
我会给空头一个至少实现收支平衡的机会 I would give bears a chance to at least get a break even.
这可能是 It might be the
55 的开盘价 如果我们 open of 55. If we
下来测试 55 或 come down and test the open of 55 or
收盘价 57 这就是 close of 57 that's where
空头将实现盈亏平衡并退出 bears will get the break even and exit out.
或者多头会继续买入 因为没有空头实体 Or bulls will keep buying this because there's no bear body for
任何散户都可以加入 any retail trader to jump in.
它仍有可能上涨 对我来说 看涨压力是 It could still go up. To me the bullish pressure is
娜丽 56 57和58 there. 56 57 and 58.
可能是 It could be
达到上面的20点 所以 如果你仍然持有多头仓位 to get to the 20 point up there. So if you're still long
你应该期待后续行动 you should expect follow through.
获得一些利润 但留下一个逃犯 Take some profit but leave a runner.
因为熊仍然被困在那里 Because bears are still stuck down there.
多头队想要重新振作 Bulls want to get back up
到 51 45 75 然后进一步上升 to 51 45 75 and then further up
至51 56区 to 51 56 area.
看 See
多头失败 他们无法与 bulls fail. They couldn't overlap with
最低价 30 美元 它们无法与强劲的多头主体重叠 bar 30 low. They couldn't overlap with the strong bull body.
记住我说过空头可以保持这个缺口并继续 Remember I said bears can keep this gap open and continue
卖出几条腿 所以 像 to sell with a couple of legs down. So bar like
43 你应该期待后续的抛售 他们确实这么做了 43 you should expect follow through selling. And they did.
虽然很疼 但那是一只熊蝇 所以 他们就这么做了 It was painful but that was a bear fly. So they did.
但现在 多头正向我们施加一些压力 But now bulls are showing us some pressure here.
所以 这算是一种警告 也许这就是所谓的警告 So it's kind of a warning. Maybe this was the warning.
所以我仍然预计价格将达到这个趋势线 So I still expect price to get to this trend line
最终 那么 它什么时候到达那里呢 eventually. Now when does it get there
我仍需要看到这些空头退出市场 I still need to see these bears exit out of the market.
他们还没有 所以我需要等待 And they haven't yet. So I need to wait for a
稍微往后拉 就这样 slight pull back. There you go.
只要他们不能关闭下面的熊身 As long as they can't close a bear body below
6 点 多头可以买入回调 6 point bulls can then buy that pull back and
上涨 但它可以下跌 反弹 然后收于上方 go up. But it can come down and bounce and close above
6分大关 多头队仍然可以做到这一点 他们想 the 6 point mark. Bulls can still buy that. They want to get
回到这条趋势线 也许在这里 也许在那里 他们会标记它 back to this trend line. Maybe here maybe there. They will tag it.
但我不知道 我不再看跌了 But I don't know. I'm not bearish anymore.
当我看到这个上升时 Once I saw this going up
以及低于 56 个低点的陷阱 and the trap below the 56 low.
收盘价为看涨 是时候退出并做多 That bar closed bullish. Time to exit and go long
反而 instead.
我仍然认为空头会试图解决这个问题 但是 I still think the bears are going to try to fix it but
他们有点绝望了 所以 他们得到了熊的实体 they're kind of desperate. So they got their bear body.
没什么特别的 有些餐厅里有室内K线 It's not all that great. It's an inside bar at some
突破重新测试区域 breakout retest area.
所以 我看到空头正在努力 他们正在努力关闭空头 So I can see the bears are trying. They're trying to close a bear
实体低于6分 这样他们就能降到10分 这样他们就能获得突破 body below 6 so they can come down to the 10 point. So they can get the break
甚至在多头再次出现之前 但我不是那种看跌者 even before bulls show up again. But I'm not one of those bears.
我发现他们确实这么认为 I can see that they do think this
K线是一个不错的K线 但现在 bar is a decent bar but now
他们开始感到不安了 那么 他们该怎么办 他们打算以高于一个价格点的价格卖出 they're getting upset. So what are they going to do They're going to sell one tick above
69号K线 因为他们可能已经卖掉了 bar 69. Because they probably already sold
快到K线了 抱歉 是59 不是69 是59 close of that bar. I'm sorry 59 not 69 59.
所以 现在他们将被迫以高于这个标准的价格出售 So now they're going to be forced to sell above that bar
也是如此 所以 当我们如此接近移动平均线时 as well. So when we're this close to the moving average
多头想要第二轮上涨 甚至可能是第三轮上涨 and the bulls want a second leg maybe even a third leg up
我宁愿它是看涨的 而不是看跌的 所以 就是这样 I'd rather it be bullish than the bearish. So there you go.
因为多头现在可能想要20分 Because bulls probably want the 20 point now.
那么 空头什么时候卖出 So when do the bears sell
我不知道 他们可以在这里卖 他们实际上 I don't know. They could sell here. They actually
达到14分 reach the 14 point.
从那里测量 也就是说 Measure from there. That is
再次14分 也许他们可以 again 14 point. Maybe they can
再卖 我不知道 但任何卖过这块巧克力的人 sell again. I don't know. But anybody who sold this bar
三个空头多头条和一个回调 three bear bull bars and a pullback
多头正在买入 这是微信 所以 我不 bulls are buying. That's a micro channel. So I don't
想在那里做熊 宁做长 不做短 want to be a bear there. It's better to be long than short.
那么 我会寻找……他们能否收于 So then I'm going to look for... if they can close above the
15 分 比 14 分高一分 15 point so one point above 14
他们将以 19 到 20 分的成绩结束比赛 目前成绩还不错 they're going to gun it for 19 to 20 point which is there.
所以 无论你从枢轴点测量 So whether you measure from the pivot point
低位放缓 或者多头开始真正 the low slow or where the bulls start to actually
我认为 不 它比 55 的低点高出一个刻度 I think no it's one tick above the 55 low.
没关系 可能会达到19到 Doesn't matter. It's probably going to reach 19 to
20分区域 多头队可能想要 20 point area. Bulls probably want the
45 75 46 45 75 46
51 46区 51 46 area.
多头想要的是趋势线 他们实际上想要 Bulls want the trend line. They want to actually
一路到这里 get all the way up to here.
所以他们甚至可能这次最终 So they might even go this time finally
与第 31 条重叠 因此 我看涨 overlap with bar 31. So I'm bullish
仍然如此 我想看看我是否能变得更好一点 still. I want to see if I can get a little bit better.
19分的测试 A test of 19 point.
因此 如果 20 点是 47.50 那么 19 点就是 So if 20 point is 47.50 19 point is
46.50 就是这样 46.50. There you go.
在 19 点处雕刻 但是 Sculpt at the 19 point but
我们实际上可能会获得 20 个稳定的波段 we might actually get that 20 solid swing.
但我并不挑剔 只要有我就行 But I'm not picky. I'll just take whatever.
我想测试一下...我现在要摆脱它 I'd like to test the... I'm going to get rid of this now.
我喜欢看到 19 分 但它太好了 I like to see the 19 point but it's so nice.
K线很强劲 所以 20分稳固 Bars are strong. So 20 point solid
很不错 is decent.
你也可以测量 看看 50 号K线 所以 这总是 You can also measure look bar 50. So is this an always
又长又长 这个失败了 看 下面没有空栏K线关闭 and long This one failed. Look no bare bar closed below
6 分 这意味着多头仍然占据主导地位 the 6 point. So that means is bulls are still in charge.
现在 你怎么……这是枢轴点20 现在 你可以 Now how do you... this is a pivot level 20 point. Now you could
说 看 熊完全被困在这里 所以它们永远不会 say look bears are totally trapped here so they're never going to
得到这个目标 没问题 那么 我们把它处理掉吧 get this target. That's fine. So let's get rid of this.
不再感兴趣了 现在 Not interested anymore. Now
我如何测量我的波段 how do I measure my swing
嗯 我已经测量过了 得到了20分 但是我该如何 Well I already measured and I got a 20 point there. But how do I get
20 50 所以 它必须被淘汰 20 50 So it needs to go
20 分 再加 2 分 即可获得 20 分 20 point and extra 2 ticks to give you 20 points
我一般会寻找 I generally look for
漂亮的保险杠关闭 good looking bull bars closing on
他们的高点 现在 56 和 57 不是 their highs. Now 56 and 57 are not
太棒了 我会把它组合成一个大保险杠 all that great. I would combine it as a one big bull bar.
然后你得到了58 所以 你可以这样做 你可以 Then you get the 58. So you can do this. You can either
从 57 收盘或 measure from the close of 57 or the
收盘价 58 这将是你永远的长期 close of 58. And this would be your always in long
波段目标 但如果你从 swing target. But if you measure from
那么你就是保守的 你正在获利了结 here then you're conservative. You're taking profits
就在那里 20 点额外几刻 there. 20 point extra couple of ticks
市场已经达到了目标 每个人都达到了自己的目标 但是这个 market reached and gave everybody their target. But this
人工智能并不总是能达到目标 就像 isn't how Al measures always in targets. It's like from
在这里 他可以测量 但无法得到 所以 here he can measure that but he couldn't get it. So
我可能会 因为市场非常悲观 我们还没有超过 I would probably because market is very bearish we're not above
移动平均线 你需要至少两个收盘价 the moving average. You need kind of like at least two closes
高于移动平均线 就意味着我们总是在做多 所以你应该总是预期 above the moving average to say that we are always in long. So you should always expect
就是这样 所以 我们已经达到了移动平均线的两条腿 而且 that. So we already reach with two legs to the moving average. And it's
20多节之后 这可能是第一次接触 after 20 plus bars it's the first touch probably
那里的卖家 所以 你得到你想要的 但在这里 这个 sellers there. So you get what you get. But here this
可以给他们 我会测量 could be giving them I would measure from
那个K线 里面有两个保险杠 虽然 that bar these enclosed two bull bars although
可以算作一条吧 无所谓 it could be considered a one bar. Doesn't matter.
总是很长 要么在那里 Always in long. Either there
在这里获利 take some profit here which
是 53.25 或 53 is 53.25 or 53.
然后跑垒员抓住它 Then at a runner and hold it
至 58.25 to 58.25.
多头在 20 点区域获利 Bulls taking profit at the 20 point area measured from the
枢轴水平或从 57 的水平开始 pivot level or from the level of 57.
所以 这就是获利了结 可能会回调 So that is profit taken there. Might pull back about
5 到 6 点 但如果空头真的以某种方式收盘 5 to 6 points. But if the bears do close somehow
低于6点 他们可以卖出 所以 这就是利润 below the 6 point they could sell. So this is the profit
此刻拍摄 6 分 taken at the moment. 6 point
大约是43.75 我们可能需要下来测试一下 is around 43.75. We might need to come down and test
那里 但如果我们不能关闭下面的熊体 there. But if we cannot close a bear body below
43.75 多头将再次占据主导地位 43.75 bulls will take over once again.
多头总是希望实现这一目标 Always in long bulls want that target.
或者至少 想要那个目标 Or at the very least want that target.
此外预计 Also the projected
目标 所以他们似乎 target there. So they seem to
仍在继续 但我们没有像样的回调 be still going. But we did not have a decent pullback.
它只是第 61 条线的上部影线 It is just the upper wick of bar 61.
这对空头不公平 因为它们仍然被困住 It is not fair to the bears because they are still stuck down
这里 但那是他们的问题 here. But that is their problem.
他们会想办法再次出售 但是 They will somehow try to sell again. But
那就有问题了 那么 他们该如何卖出呢 that will be problematic. So how can they sell
他们希望收盘价低于 43.75 They want to close below 43.75
这样他们就能得到 10 分 也就是 so they can get a 10 point which would be
40.75 市场可能回落至40.75 40.75. Market can pull back the 40.75
如果我们得到一个空头主体 则其下方关闭 if we get a bear body closed below
43.75 43.75.
就是这样 所以 空头的机会来了 他们想要40.75 That is it. So bears are getting their chance. They want the 40.75
和 39.75 不管你信不信 and 39.75 believe it or not.
但只有当这条线收盘下跌时才行 它们甚至无法回调 现在这些 But only if this bar closes bearish. They can't even pull back. Now these
这里的空头被套牢了 他们以20点的价格卖出 bears sold here are stuck. They are selling at the 20 point.
从这里开始测量的 20 分 That 20 point measured from here
就在那里 所以 大致来说 如果你是一只熊 that was there. So approximately if you are a bear
卡在这个栏K线下面 或者也许 stuck underneath this bar or maybe
坚持收盘 也许是 54 我不知道 stuck with the close maybe 54. I don't know.
我只需要测量一下 然后你再卖 I am just going to measure from there. And you sell again
您是否正在寻找在此标记的内容 is you are looking for this to be tagged there.
你可以去那里 这些优惠的早鸟优惠 You could get there. Early bird special for these
困在这里的熊就在这里 33% bears stuck here is here. 33%
回调 但这是平均水平 所以我预计 pullback. But this is average. So I would expect
熊至少要尝试到达这里 如果 bears to at least try to get here. What if
空头不能收于 43.75 以下吗 the bears can't close below 43.75
那么就没有6点的波动 这意味着没有空头压力 Then there is no 6 point move. That means there is no bear pressure.
它可以达到第一个永远在长 It can go up to the first always in long
目标 因此 空头仍在努力实现收支平衡 target. So bears still trying to break even.
他们仍然希望价格下降 They still want price to come down here.
因此 目前空头的收盘价大约是从高点测量的 So either bears now close about measured from the high of the
拳击 他们接近熊身约6点 然后他们会推 spar. They close a bear body around 6 point. Then they will push
再往下 我有点想看看这些熊 further down. I kind of want these bears
因为他们等得太久了 所以赢不了 他们等了20分才赢 to win because they have waited too long. They waited 20 point move up
在真正尝试卖出之前 所以现在 before actually trying to sell. So now
是时候把价格降到 39.75 了 is the time for them to bring price down to the 39.75
至少在40.75区域 否则他们就会卖掉 40.75 area at the very least. Or they are going to sell
甚至更多 也就是37.75 even more. That is 37.75.
那将是 That would be
大约13 14点 around 13 14 point
从上面 或者从高处 from above. Or from the high
62. 只有当我们得到 of 62. Only if we get the
空头收盘价低于 43.75 bear close below 43.75.
他们可以将其完全推下去 They can push it all the way down.
所以 我确实在这里获利了结 So I did take some profit here.
我留下一个运行者去追那个永远在路上的目标 I left a runner for the always in target
因为我不知道这些熊的情况 现在 because I don't know about these bears. now
这是第二轮上涨 多头想要第三轮上涨 不 空头失败了 it is the second leg up. Bulls want the third leg up. No bears failed.
他们无法关闭 They could not close
熊身 the bear body.
所以 这对他们来说现在是一个问题 So that is a problem for them now.
他们应该关闭 62 号K线 They should have closed bar 62 beyond
5分 所以 他们得到的只是 5 point. So all they got was
有点像 kind of like
5 6分 好吧 他们还在努力 干得漂亮 5 6 point. Al they are still trying. Good for them.
但是 他们能拿到那9分吗 But are they going to be able to get that 9 point
10分 哦 也许吧 好吧 看来他们真是早起的鸟儿 10 point Oh maybe they are. Al there you go. They are getting the early bird.
他们真是早起的鸟儿 干得好 好了 我们现在就走 完成任务 They just got the early bird. Good job. Al let's go now. Finish the job
然后 我本来想补充一下 then. I was going to add
如果我们能再买一根牛栏 那就再买一份合约 所以我仍然持有 another contract if we were to get another bull bar. So I am still holding
永远追逐目标的跑者 a runner for the always in target
但我可能需要 but I might need to
等待空头首先实现盈亏平衡 wait for that bears to get breakeven first.
所以 我会耐心等待 就这样吧 So I will be patient. There you go.
熊队得了10分 瞧 Bears got a 10 point. Look.
好吧 事实上有超过 10 分 Al there is a more than 10 point in fact.
所以 那里就是 10 So that is 10 there.
如果你从这里开始测量 因为这是他们正式开始卖出的地方 And if you measure from here because that is where they actually officially start to sell
这是他们的10分 他们不仅得到了10分 而且 that is their 10 point. Not only they got their 10 point that is also
盈亏平衡平均值 所以 任何被困在这里的人 a breakeven average. So anybody stuck down here
实现了不错的盈亏平衡 所以 这太棒了 他们卖了 got a nice breakeven. So that is fantastic. They sold
进入20点的多头 他们卖出了 into a 20 point bull run. They sold
进入获利回吐阶段 他们迅速将市场推高了10个点 into a profit taking. They moved the market quickly 10 point.
我不知道他们是否能再降一点 他们可能 I don't know if they can come down more. They might
可以 不过干得漂亮 多头队怎么样 be able to. But job well done. What about the bulls
这对他们来说还有效吗 Does this still work for them
我不知道 它不应该移动10个点 所以 现在 I don't know. It should not have moved 10 points. So now
当然 它仍然可以到达那里 但是 it could still get there granted. But
它需要移动 5 到 6 点 it needs to move 5 to 6 point
并收于 6 点以上 and close above 6 point.
那么 我期望得到 10 分 Then I would expect 10 point.
就在那里 Which is there.
然后 它还可能上涨约 14 15 点 Then it could also go up about 14 15 points.
因此 我们仍然可能继续沿着这一趋势线前进 So we are still probably going to make it our way to this trend line.
但现在 空头改变了方向 But now bears changed the course
并使市场上涨了10个点 and moved the market 10 points.
这是一个趋势的开始 它甚至可能下降得更多 That is a trend starter. It can come down even more.
也许这一阶段的 50% 正在寻找买家 Maybe 50% of this leg is and look for buyers.
或者 它会继续一路下跌 Or it is going to keep selling all the way down
至 55 低点 to the 55 low.
因为现在很难 Because this is now very difficult to
我想 达到了 因为它动了…… attain I think. Because it moved...
我的意思是 这并不难 但他们需要退出市场 I mean it is not very difficult but they need to exit out of the market
多头需要开始买入 如果多头开始买入 并且收盘价高于 and the bulls need to start buying. If the bulls start buying and close above
那里有 6 个点 一个多头实体 也许是下一个或下一个 a 6 point there a bull body maybe the next bar or the following
K线 那么是的 我们仍然可以回到这里 bar then yes we could still go back up here.
不过 我现在还不知道 熊队领先了10分 他们还想再赢几分 But I don't know at the moment. Bears moved 10 points. They want more.
所以 我想在这里买 So I want to buy here.
但也可能再下降4 5个百分点 But it can also come down another 4 5 points.
所以 我不想买得太早 So I don't want to buy too early.
没有多头 但有一些利润 There is no bull bar but some profit
以 10 分制采取的措施仍然有效 taken at the 10 points is still valid.
多头认为这可能是第一腿 然后拉回第二腿 Bulls see this as maybe leg 1 pull back leg 2.
所以 他们认为他们可以接受双腿下行 So they think that they can buy into the 2 legged move down
他们希望能获得 5 10 个百分点的提升 and they want to get a 5 10 point move up.
6分是51 42 6 point is 51 42.
5分是51 41 5 point is 51 41.
空头还能继续抛售吗 是的 Can bears continue to sell Yes.
他们可以通过这一动作获得 13 14 15 分 They can get 13 14 15 point from this move
在真正上升之前 这意味着 before actually going up. So that means
你必须从这里开始测量 这就是6点 you have to measure from here. That's the 6 point.
多头要想走高 就需要收于 6 点以上 In order for bulls to go higher they need to close above 6 point.
现在 这是10分 熊队想要 now this is 10 points. Bears want
还有更多 但熊 a lot more but bears
需要继续关闭熊的实体 如果他们这样做 那么下一个 need to keep closing bear bodies. If they do then the next
他们希望降到 14 分 也就是 they want to come down to the 14 point which is
就在这里 我会把它放在一边 somewhere here. I'll put that aside
目前 因为这里没有多头 所以 空头似乎想要 for now because there are no bulls here. So bears seem to want to
继续这个 是13 14 continue this. Is 13 14
甚至可能是15分 我不知道 我通常会找一个中间点 maybe even 15 point I don't know. I generally find a mid point which
平均为14 is 14 average.
但如果他们降那么多分 他们就只能争取20分了 我还不知道 But if they come down that much they would look for 20 points. I don't know yet.
我们需要再拿下一个熊棒来拿下 11 分 We need one more bear bar taking out the 11 point.
所以 如果空头不能 So if the bears can't
这样做的话 多头就会变得非常强劲 do that then bulls will come in pretty strong.
然后他们会寻找 Then they will look for
测试第 63 条的中点至上三分之一 mid point to upper third of bar 63 tested
或最低达到 62 点 现在 or the low of 62. now
空头占据了优势 他们不会继续卖到13 14点 bears own this. They won't follow through selling into 13 14 point.
那里就是 14 That's 14 there.
可能 15 Possible 15.
一些获利回吐可能就从这里开始 Some profit taking might start here.
那么多头队尝试 What about the bulls trying
创造趋势 他们需要收于6点以上 to create a trend They need to close above the 6 point.
因此 如果收盘价高于 6 点 那么这些多头将 So if they close above the 6 point then these bulls will
想要 10 分 9 10 分 甚至更高 want 10 point 9 10 point or maybe even higher.
我需要看到多头确实收于该线之上 I need to see bulls actually close above that line.
否则 空头可能会达到 20 点 一路下跌 并测试这些 Otherwise bears can get a 20 point come down all the way here and test these
低点 lows.
我当时还在坚持 但你看 I was still holding a runner into this but you see how
他们提高了 10 个百分点 我说这现在有点不确定 they move 10 points and I said this is now a little bit iffy.
我不知道我们能否实现这一目标 因为空头创造了一种趋势 I don't know if we can get there. Because bears created a trend
我可能需要等他们达到 10 分 甚至 I might need to wait for them to reach the 10 point maybe even
在我进入之前 我可能得了 15 分 甚至 20 分 15 point maybe even 20 point before I enter and
和那位跑垒员打平 所以 也许 break even with that runner. So maybe
我可以在这里买到 我不知道 我得去找个保险杠 I can buy here. I don't know. I'm going to look for a bull bar.
或者先出现弱熊 我不会只是 Or a weak bear close first. I'm not going to just
盲目购买 因为空头显然想要 buy it blindly because bears clearly want
这些低点 多头希望出现更高的低点 并将其反转 these lows. Bulls want a higher low and reverse it back
到第 42 小节低和 up to bar 42 low and
43 high 这是高潮部分 43 high. That's the climax bar.
之后我再也没有得到任何高潮棒 但这是一个 I didn't get any more climax bar after that but it's a
峰值回调通道向下 因此 多头希望 spike pullback channel down. So bulls want to get
备份并在此测试并获得双顶 back up and test here and get a double top.
我可能还有机会 好吧 这是一根弱空头K线 I might get a chance. OK it's a weak bear bar.
我喜欢这个 I like that.
我想我会买的 有人会说 好吧 I think I'm going to buy it. Some will say OK
这实际上是一个延续空头 this is actually a continuation bear bar.
我也同意这一点 空头人士希望看到后续行动 I also agree with that. Bears want to get follow through.
但多头被困住了 But bulls are trapped up
那里也有 所以我更喜欢 there as well. So I prefer
标记一下以便再次回到这里 to mark it to go back up here again.
在移动平均线上方进行测试 Test above the moving average.
空头想要测试最后 Bears want to test the last
移动平均缺口条 55 moving average gap bar 55.
开盘价 最高价 收盘价和最低价 因为他们想要 Open high close and low. Because they want
继续卖 这次他们想要20点 to continue to sell. They want the 20 point this time.
但他们如何做到这一点 他们需要在15点以下收盘 But how do they get there They need to close bear body below the 15 point
分数 意思是低于64分 如果他们能做到这一点 mark. Meaning below 64. If they manage to do that
然后他们会寻找19到20 我要标记20 then they're going to look for 19 to 20. I'm going to mark the 20
点 因为它可能很快就会到达那里 如果空头收盘价低于 point because it could get there very quickly. If the bears close below
64 他们会很快倒下 64 they're going to come down fast
到20分 因为目标是取出 to the 20 point. Because the goal is to take out the
移动平均线缺口条 上方没有缺口条 moving average gap bar. There is no gap bar above
移动平均线要么在这里 要么在那里 所以 这仍然是一个非常看跌的市场 the moving average here or nor there. So this is still a very bearish market.
所以 我们不能直接回去测试那些移动平均线 So it's not like we could just go back and test those moving average
多头缺口线 什么也没有 没有什么可去尝试和测试的 bull gap bars. There is nothing. There's nothing to go for and test.
这已经完全消失了 这意味着 And this has totally died. So that means
空头可能想要创下新低 bears could want a new low
然后反转回升 多头希望出现更高的低点 and then reverse back up. Bulls want a higher low.
这是一个很好的地方 可以达到更高的低点 但是 And this is a good place to get the higher low. But
然后他们需要不让熊带走 they are then need to not allow bears to take out
64 低 那么 谁会赢呢 the 64 low. So who's going to win here
我仍然 I'm still
长期持有 我仍然持有 那是因为我 long. I'm still holding. That's because I
尽管我知道可能会有这种情况发生 但我并没有退出那笔空头 did not exit out of that short even though I knew it could come
降到15分 但我现在想看看 down to the 15 point. But I'm looking to see now
如果空头要突破 64 美元的低点 因为如果他们失败了 if the bears are going to take out that 64 low. Because if they fail
我们得到了一个 64 的微双底 然后突然 we get a micro double bottom with 64. And then suddenly
多头出现 我就可以收支平衡 但如果 the bulls show up I can break even. But if the
64 低点被取出 我们最终可以归结为 64 low is taken out we can end up coming down to
19点 20点 那我就被迫在那里买 19 point 20 point. Then I'm going to be forced to buy there.
而这很可能仍会让我收支平衡 And that will still give me a break even most likely.
但越往下走 But the more it comes down
我正在管理风险 我确实退出了 I'm managing the risk. I did exit with bunch of
合约 但我保留了那个跑者 contracts. But I kept that runner for that
始终坚持这一趋势线 always in long into this trend line and
他们在挑战我 所以我必须 they're challenging me. So I just have to be
我不能每次都加 我不能每次都加 I cannot add every time it comes down. I cannot add every time
它能闭合熊的实体 我必须聪明一点 而且我已经 it closes a bear body. I have to be smart. And I have
衡量市场下跌的幅度 to measure how much the market is moving down. What is the
波段目标 10 15 20 是波段目标 swing target 10 15 20 are the swing targets.
所以 我需要聪明一点 我需要时间 So I need to be smart. And I need to time
我的入场 这样我就可以降低风险 my entry so I can keep the risk low
然后迅速收支平衡 and then break even quickly.
所以 空头仍然持有这种观点 他们似乎想要 So bears still own this. They seem to want
19到20点 所以 the 19 to 20 point. So
对他们来说真好 我在这里损失了大约300美元 good for them. I'm losing about $300 here.
这感觉不太好 但考虑到 And it's not a good feeling but considering
我做的一切都很好 what I made it's okay.
现在 你会怎么做 Now how would you
出口 嗯 我们到达了目标 你应该从那里出口 exit Well we reach a target you would have exit there.
你看到空头条下降 给你 10 分 And you see a bear bar coming down and giving you a 10 point
出口 它可能会继续下降 最迟退出 exit. It's probably going to go further down. Exit at the latest
因为它可能需要更多腿 with bar 63 because it's probably going to want more legs
下跌 我可以持有 我可以随时买入 down. I can hold it. I can buy as it goes
更低 然后我可以取平均值 lower. And I can average out.
但如果你做不到 那么至少要衡量一下市场波动的程度 But if you can't do it then at least measure how much the market move.
如果超过 6 分 它就想得到 10 分 如果没有保险杠 If it's more than 6 points it wants to get the 10. If no bull bar
上涨 5 6 点 这意味着空头想要更多波动 is moving up 5 6 points that means bears want more swing
例如 15 和 20 这样的目标 所以 你必须...... targets such as 15 and 20. So you have to...
只需出售而不是持有即可赚钱 You can make money by just selling rather than holding
你的损失 your loss.
如果我……你看 你可以从这里测量 Al . If I am... Look you can measure from here
然后我们就只有20分了 我喜欢从 and then we're just about 20 points. I like to measure from
枢轴水平 但机器非常 the pivot levels but machines are very
智能 先进的测量方法 他们看到第 61 条 smart. Advanced way to measure. They see bar 61
一路看涨 这不是抛售 was bullish all the way up here. This isn't selling.
这仍然是一根多头线 所以 真正的抛售实际上从这里开始 This is still a bull bar. So actual selling actually started here.
所以 对他们来说 这实际上是 20 分 他们可能仍然持有 So to them this is the actual 20 point and they might still hold
一直到这里 但如果你测量 it all the way down to here. But if you measure
从这里开始 我们已经达到了 20 差不多 from here we already reach the 20 just about
20分吧 19比20 现在 20 point 19 to 20. And now
如果我从这里测量 if I measure from here
多头队至少想要 5 6 分 bulls want at least 5 6 points.
所以 这是你的 5 我总是测量 So here's your 5. I always measure
6. 因为如果你不能 6. Because if you cannot
接近 6 点以上的牛栏 他们永远不会得到 10 分 close bull bar above 6 they're never going to get a 10 point
摆脱这个困境 但我不知道 我们还没有完全标记出这20个 out of this. But I don't know. We haven't really fully tagged the 20.
但多头将开始买入 But bulls will start to buy.
因为实际上 多头不是 Because really bulls are not
真正的买入 是空头获利了结 因为他们处于 really buying. It's the bears taking profit. Because they're between the
19 和 21 点 获利回吐的 2 点区域 19 and 21 point 2 point area where profit taking
发生 如果他们从 61 的高点开始测量 也就是 happens. If they measured from the high of 61 which is the
枢轴水平 pivot level.
... ...
这仍然属于获利回吐 That's still profit taking there.
但它必须以足够看涨的姿态收盘 But it has to close bullish enough
继续 to continue to
激发更多多头进场买入 那么 excite more bulls to come in and buy it. So then
多头队可以得到5 6分 bulls can get that 5 6 point
得分 真的 score really.
我刚刚又通过了5 I just passed another 5
为公司账户提供资金 funded company accounts.
这些人不会允许我与他们进行交易 These people are not going to allow me to cover the trade with them.
我希望这些家伙 Hopefully I think these guys
至少要有5天 这是 definitely have 5 day minimum. This is one of the
知名公司 我 well known companies. I'm
尝试测试一下 我想他们已经…… trying to test out. I think they have...
所以我有点违反了他们的 So I kind of violated their
一致性规则 最终通过了 就是这么简单 consistency rule and ended up passing. It's just so easy.
价格行为非常清晰 Price action is so clean.
你怎么知道... How can you know if the...
这是给我的吗 帕姆比尼 Is that for me Pambini
这是给我问的吗 你怎么知道61的最高点是多少 Is that for me that question How can you know if the high of 61
我想你错过了 因为我错过了 I think you missed it because I did
删除那里的东西 remove something there which is
多头在这里买入 它们达到了 bulls bought here. They reached more than
如果你真的测量的话 可以得到 20 分 无论你从下往上测量 20 points if you actually measure. Whether you measure from down
还是他们实际购买的地方 或者测量 here or where they actually bought. Or measure
从实体里 没关系 从 from the body. It doesn't matter. From
19 到 20 分 这是如果你从 19 to 20 point this is if you measure from
56 的开局是你得到大约 20 分 the open of 56 is you get about 20 points
锋利 这就是这些多头 sharp. That's where these bulls
正在抛售 多头正在抛售 这是什么意思 are selling. What does that mean bulls are selling
多头应该买入 不 多头卖出多头是因为 Bulls should buy. No bulls selling out of their longs because
这是一个20点的波动 无论你怎么衡量 如果你 this is a 20 point swing. Doesn't matter how you measure. If you
从这里算起 你提前到达了20分 这只是一个延伸 measure from here you reach the 20 point early. This is just an extension.
如果你测量实体的实际位置 If you measure from where actually the body
打开后 你就能达到实际的20分 你必须 opens then you reach the actual 20 point. You gotta
获利了结 它从获利了结开始 take profit. It starts as a take profit
第 61 K线 在这里关闭 但它不一定 bar 61 closes down here. But it did not necessarily
关闭 close
6 分 它又下降了 5 分 6 points. It moved down another 5
分 它落下来 然后它把实体合拢 points. It came down then it closes the body around
5分 这不是波动 我仍然认为多头可能会进场 5 points. This is not a swing. I'm still thinking bulls can come in.
这是我获得大量利润的地方 但我控制住了跑者 This is where I took a lot of profit but I held the runner.
然后发生了这样的事 事情发生的方式有很多种 Then this happened. That happened way way way
太快了 他们突破了 too quick. They breached the
现在6点了 就是这里 这就是6点 6 point now. There it is. Here is the 6 point.
他们不仅迅速突破了防线 而且最终倒下了 Not only they breached it quickly they ended up coming down
到 10 点 10 点就在这里 to 10 point. 10 point is here.
然后他们到了11分 然后他们 Then they went to 11 point. And then they
收盘价低于11点 当你看到空头线 closed below the 11 point. When you see bear bars
收盘价低于 11 点 因为你的波动区域是从 9 closing below the 11 point because your swing zone is from 9
到11点 9点到11点之间 to 11 point. Somewhere in between 9 to 11
这些空头将会获利了结 相反 these bears will take profit. Instead
他们可能已经获利了结 然后上涨 然后下跌 然后他们收盘跌破 they might have taken profit just went up came down. Then they close below
11. 这意味着我通常会寻找 11. That means I generally look for
11 11 3节 这确认了 11 11 and 3 quarters. That's a confirmation
你现在应该预计 15 甚至可能 you should expect now 15 and possibly
19到20 他们拿到了20分吗 是的 如果你测量 19 to 20. Did they get their 20 Yeah if you measure
从枢轴点来看 这已经是获利了结了 如果现在 from the pivot level this is now profit taken. If now
空头获利了结 这意味着空头 the bears taking profit that means bears are
买入 这意味着空头正在买入吗 这些空头推动了市场 buying. What does that mean bears are buying These bears move the market
20点 止盈 你期待5到6点的波动 20 point taking profit. You look for a 5 to 6 point move
上涨 你会看到黄牛 然后他们开始突破 up. You see scalpers. Then they start to breach.
你应该寻求10点 现在应该会有一些获利回吐 You should be looking for a 10 point. Now there will be some profit taking.
看看 获利回吐可能是 Look that profit taking can be
是3分 我通常预计 is 3 points. I generally expect
3 到 5 点之间 然后多头可以 between 3 to 5 points. And then bulls can
继续上涨 但如果他们降到5点 然后 continue to go up. But if they come down to 5 point and then
收盘价低于 6 点 则预计还会下跌 10 点 close below 6 point you look for another 10 point down.
所以现在市场达到 10 点是...但是它 So now market reach 10 point is... but it
我不知道 没人真的在 I don't know. No one is really taking
获利了结 ATR 一些获利回吐已开始 profit there. ATR some profit taking started.
您也可以从 11 开始测量 You can also measure from 11.
所以这笔交易正在进行中 你可以获利了结 So this one is going. You can take some profits
先付钱 再衡量下一个 pay yourself then measure the next
一 14 到 15 分 剩一名跑垒员 one. 14 to 15 point and leave a runner.
我的平均成绩是 14 但是你看 我们达到了 I average at 14. But look we came up to
10 11. 你必须预料到获利回吐 10 11. You gotta expect the profit taking.
就是这样 他们正在获利 利润该流向哪里呢 There it is. They are taking some profit. Where can it go
我不知道 可能会下降3到5个百分点 I don't know. It could go 3 to 5 point down.
所以我会从那个高度进行测量 So I would measure from that high.
或者从 11 点开始 以下是大致情况 Or from the 11 point. Here is your roughly
5点头皮 空头实际上可以将其拉低 5 point scalp. Bears can actually bring it down
至 5 点且无法在其下方收盘 to 5 point and not be able to close below it.
所以我不知道空头是否会占据主导地位 So I don't know if the bears are gonna take over.
将其转变为看跌 目前这些 Turn this into bearish. now these
多头推动市场波动超过10点 bulls move the market more than 10 point. Somewhere around the
上部区域 upper zone of the
获利回吐 目前为11点 他们正在获利回吐 profit taking which is 11 point. They are taking profit.
所以它正在下降 如果它愿意的话 它甚至可以下降5个百分点 So it's coming down. It could come down 5 points if it wants to.
但如果多头结束 那就是获利回吐 突然 But if it closes a bull bar that was the profit taking. Suddenly
如果这个K线收于 11 点以上 那么你就知道 if this bar closes above 11 point then you know
下一小节可以带我们到 14 15 the next bar can take us to 14 15
甚至可能达到19到20点 maybe even up to 19 to 20 point.
这就是为什么我给自己很多钱 So this is why I pay myself a lot
朝那个方向 那么他们会在哪里关闭呢 in that direction. So where will they close
他们的收盘价会超过 20 点吗 Are they gonna close above the 20 point
对不起 10点 11点 I'm sorry. 10 point. 11 point.
我更倾向于看到 11.75 比如 11 点 I prefer to see 11.75. Like 11 point
.75 这将证实多头想要 and three quarters. That would be a confirmation that bulls wanna
继续将其推入下一个波段区 14 到 15 keep pushing this into the next swing zone. 14 to 15.
然后是实际的波段区域 20 分 And then the actual swing zone. 20 points.
现在还剩28秒 我也想看多头 So now is 28 seconds left. I wanna see bulls either
接管并继续推进 这是波段目标 take over and keep pushing higher. This is the swing target.
嗯 这确实是第一部分 Well really the first part of it. The
第一个目标就在这里 这条线 但实际上 多头实际上可以让我们 first target here. This line. But really bulls can actually get us
一路向上 小心 我们只需要靠近上面 all the way up there. Careful. We just have to close above
这条预测的绿线 所以多头 this projected green line. So bulls
在这里做得很好 但是 are doing fantastic here. But
他们仍然必须关闭一个强大的 they still have to close a strong
牛栏在这里 收盘价没有超过11.75 bull bar here. Okay. They did not close above 11.75
但现在他们可以了 如果他们这样做 but they can now. If they do
收盘价高于 67 下一个目标 close this bar above this 67. Next target
大约是14到15岁 我相信他们会达到 is roughly 14 to 15. I'm sure they will reach
到15 因为它很适合推 但我一般 to 15 because it's nicely pushing. But I generally
预计大约 14 所以我们测试了 expect around 14. So we tested
比 14 稍高一点 因此他们已经从中获利了结 one tick above 14. So they're already taking some profit there.
但此时此刻我预计 But at this point I would expect
多头队得到20分 20 points from bulls.
这样你就可以拦住一名运行者 So you can hold a runner.
熊队甚至卖不出五分 Bears could not even sell five points
雕刻 所以速度非常快 两三个 to sculp. So it was very fast. A couple of three
点可能 然后多头现在试图 points maybe. And then bulls now trying to
再高一点 抱歉 我要换了 go higher. Sorry I'm switching
这里有连接 我只需要 connections here. I just need to
等待图表更新 多头不仅 wait for charts to update. Bulls not only
想要预测 不仅想要 20 分 还要预测绿色 want the projected not only want the 20 point the projected green
线 我其实有点偏离了 line. I'm actually a little bit off there.
但他们想要超越它 并且可能 But they want to get above it and possibly
上升到 进一步上升到40高K线 go up to further up to the bar 40 high
或 39 高 我们可以 or 39 high. We could
得到一个 看看这个 这可能是一个好的 get a nice look this is this could be a nice
较高低反转备份 higher low reversal backup.
大概是下午三点左右 Kind of around late in the day like three
点钟反转备份 或者 o'clock reversal backup. Or
我们将横向移动并围绕移动平均线收盘 we're just going to go sideways and close around the moving average.
现在 我想看看这条趋势线是否受到检验 Now I would like to see this trend line tested.
我还不想放弃这些多头 我至少想要这个趋势 I don't want to give up on these bulls just yet. I want at least this trend
线路测试 因为那是 line tested because that is the
预计 预计实际上是 projected. Projected is actually
就在这里 不 我刚才搞乱了 等等 here. No I just messed that up. Hold on.
不 我没有 它实际上就在那里 但我 No I didn't. It's actually there. But I'm being
保守派 我将把这些机构联系起来 conservative and I'm going to connect those bodies.
就这样 大约是20分 我们应该能够 So that's it. And that's around the 20 point. We should be able to get
那20分 that 20 point.
那空头呢 如果我们只测试15 What about the bears What if we just test the 15
点 14 15点 实际上熊 point 14 15 point and bears actually
市场波动超过6点 我没看到那些空头指标 move the market more than six point I don't see those bear bars
还没有 所以 我要看看多头是否真的能够 yet. So I'm going to look to see if the bulls can actually
在这里造成一些损害 do some damage here.
我们离这个趋势线很近了 我喜欢看到 We're so close to that trend line. I like to see
多头完成这项工作后 可能会从那里卖出 但这是 bulls finish this job and then maybe sell from there. But it is
交易区间 我们正在测试高点 但是 a trading range. We're testing the high. But
这是一个不错的抬高低点 一 二 三楔形底部 抬高低点趋势 this is a nice higher low. One two three wedge bottom. Higher low trend
今天三点左右出现了反转 所以 我想看看 reversal came in around three o'clock today. So I want to see
这条趋势线测试 this trend line test.
这是 20 分 这是 That's the 20 point and that is
51.50. 趋势线 51.50. The trend line
是从 10 低点开始的 是的 is from the 10 low. Yes.
我认为我们已经处于楔底状态 And I think we are already look wedge bottom
以及更高的低点 我说 这是一个重大的趋势反转 但为了 and a higher low. This is a major trend reversal I said. But in order
对我们来说 我不希望这只是一次小小的反转 显然 for us to like I don't want this to be a minor reversal. Obviously
我希望它能到达趋势线 超过它 收盘高于它 然后 I want this to go to the trend line get above it close above it then
一直到这里 所以 这是 go all the way up to here. So this is
交易区间高点 这就是我想要的 但我打算进行剥头皮交易 a trading range high. So that's what I want. But I'm going to scalp
以防万一 因为我不想被困住 因为这是 there just in case. Because I don't want to be trapped. Because it is the
交易区间的顶部 top of a trading range.
我们还没有达到 19 分 We didn't quite reach the 19 point
还没有 所以是 51.49 yet. So it is 51.49
51.50 是我的目标区域 to 51.50 is the target area for me.
比赛分差达到20分 19分甚至20分 这就是我 It's a 20 19 to 20 point run. And that's what I
想要多头 我希望他们加速 want from the bulls. I want them to accelerate
给我 up and give me
以上为49至50区域 49 to 50 area above.
很接近了 So close.
我们如此亲密 我不明白为什么 We're so close I don't understand why
他们没法测试 所以我会尽量保持耐心 they can't test it. So I'm going to try to be patient
这里 因为他们看到这里有一个交易区间 这个小 here. Because they see a trading range here this small
交易区间 他们认为这是交易区间的顶部 我理解 trading range. They think that this is the top of the trading range which I understand
这就是为什么我实际上保守地说 that's why I have this line actually conservatively
画 所以 我真的想要 drawn. So I really want
来测试一下 我们甚至可能再高一点 to test of that. We might even go a little bit higher.
所以 也许我会接受这个 所以 我们甚至可能 So maybe I'll just take that. So we might even
再高一点 比如51 55 go a little bit higher. Like a 51 55
也许吧 但是 maybe. But
我只需要测试 20 分就可以了 I'm okay with just testing the 20 point and
然后再卖出 至少获利了结大约4到5 then selling again. At least the profit taking about 4 or 5
点 所以 我处于合理的距离 points. So I'm in the reasonable distance
到达目标 here to the target.
我们开始收盘于 We started to close above the
移动平均线 这对多头来说是个好消息 moving average which is good news for the bulls.
68号K线实际上是一个牛栏 Bar 68 is actually a bull bar
开盘价和收盘价均高于移动平均线 因此 我们有 open and closed above the moving average. So we have
从技术上来说 3 头多头收盘 technically 3 bull closes.
但 2 只牛股开盘并收于移动平均线上方 But 2 bull open and closes above the moving average.
所以 这对多头来说是个好消息 其他 So this is good news for bulls. Other
多头看到多头缺口 所以 这是他们的 bulls see a bull gap. So this is their
目标就在这里 这是他们的衡量目标 target here. That's their measured move target
测量这里的缺口 那就是 of measuring the gap here. And that is
我认为是 48 50 48 50 I think.
是的 48 50 是多头 Yeah 48 50 is what the bulls
想要 但我们也 want. But we also
比上面多了20分 have 20 point from above.
比那个测量动作高一点 A little bit above that measured move.
所以 我还没有放弃看涨 So I'm not giving up on the bulls yet.
我将看到多头继续推动这一价格上涨 I'm going to see bulls keep pushing this higher.
我只是在测量那里的缺口 这就是我所做的一切 I'm just measuring the gap there. That's all I'm doing.
有 3 个条 With 3 bars.
趋势线测试完毕 Okay trend line tested. That was
预计目标是缺口测量 the projected target is the gap measurement
测试 许多熊 tested. Many bears
知道多头队不仅试图 know that the bulls try to go for not only
20点 也是2R目标 也就是延续 the 20 point but also the 2R target which is continuation.
我们还可以测试他们的 51 75 We could also test their 51 75.
但有一些获利了结 But some profit taken
可能很快就会到来 我们可能 might be coming in soon. And that we might
需要在 20 进行测试 我们可能会超过 20 need to test at 20. We could get above 20.
那是因为我们有 1R 2R 目标 That's because we have a 1R 2R target
从这个形态 多头关闭了牛栏 所以 我从 from this set up. Bulls close the bull bar. So I measure from
强空头K线关门了 这就是我的 the strong bear bars close. And that's my
保守的2R目标 所以 如果你愿意 可以持有 conservative 2R target. So you can hold it if you like.
但从技术上讲 我们达到了 20 点 这些多头需要获利了结 But technically we reach the 20 point and these bulls need to take some profit
这里 这样 我们就能一下子卖出大约 4 到 5 个点 here. So we could suddenly sell about 4 or 5 points.
但2R就在附近 我喜欢看到 But 2R is so close by. I like to see
多头也在那里达到了他们的目标 因为记住 bulls get their target there as well. Because remember
这是一个替代目标 this was an alternative target.
如果你真的使用 If you actually use
连接剂量 你仍然有一个房间 the connect dose you still have a room
从技术上来说 上涨 to upside technically.
一些机器已经开始盈利了 但是 We are getting some machines already start to take profit. But there
仍然是2R 我喜欢看到它被测试 is still 2R. I like to see it tested.
就这样 There you go.
好吧 Al .
那么 有人买入并持有吗 So did anybody buy and hold
现在你应该获利了结 因为它无法下跌 Now you should be taking some profit because it can't come down.
能降多少 How much can it come down
它可以一直归结为 It can come all the way down to
47.25 至 46.25 47.25 to 46.25.
如果空头真的要严肃起来 它们可以带来 And if bears want to get serious they can bring
一直下降到 43.25 到 42.25 it all the way down to 43.25 to 42.25.
这是一些获利回吐的区域 This is some profit taking area.
这只是推动 但是 It's just pushing but
这些多头需要自己付钱 所以 我喜欢 these bulls need to pay themselves. So I like
看到一些获利回吐 to see some profit taking.
好吧 现在他们正在推动 Okay now that they are pushing
高很多 他们想要 3R 吗 a lot higher do they want the 3R
他们可能真的会这么做 They might actually go for it.
但问题是 But the problem here is that
多头在 20 点时并未获利 bulls did not take any profit at the 20 point.
这让我很紧张 因为我们可能会延长它 So that makes me nervous because we can extend it
但突然间它又会崩塌 but suddenly it can collapse back down.
至少5分 At least 5 points.
是的 我们提高了 5 到 6 分 Yep we moved 5 to 6 points
现在 空头可能想要9到10 now. Bears want probably 9 to 10
点 他们的9分是46.5 我不知道 points. Their 9 points is 46.5. I don't know
如果他们能卖那么多的话 市场​​下调 5 到 6 if they are going to be able to sell that much. Moving market down for 5 to 6
分不过是皮球而已 根本算不上什么摇摆 points is nothing but a scalp. It is not a swing.
这并不意味着空头主宰了这个市场 多头表现非常出色 Doesn't mean the bears own this market. Bulls are doing a fantastic job
这里 他们实际上想收于趋势线上方 并保持 here. They actually want to close above the trend line and keep
不只是推动3R 4R 5R 是的 5R 这个 pushing not just the 3R 4R 5R. Yeah 5R this
区域 他们想一路推进到这里 他们可以 area. They want to push all the way up here. They could.
但这仍然是获利回吐 我想看看情况如何 But this is still profit taking. I want to see where this is
即将关闭 同样 你可以从那里测量 我正在看 going to close. Again you can measure from there. I'm looking
移动 5 到 6 点 for 5 to 6 point move.
那里有 5 到 6 点的移动 That there is 5 to 6 point move.
去掉它 没有任何东西低于这个价位 所以这是 Get rid of that. Nothing is closing below that. So this is
仍然非常看涨 他们所做的就是带来一根金条 still very bullish. All they did was bring a bar
下跌约 6 个点并剥头皮 down about 6 points and scalp it.
多头希望收于 21 点以上 以获得 Bulls want to close above the 21 point to get
到30分 这意味着他们有 to the 30 point. So that means they have
到……好吧 他们确实关闭了一个牛栏 他们仍然拥有这个 to... Okay so they did close a bull bar. They are still owning this
市场 但空头并没有真正 market. But bears didn't really make any
钱在这里 所以我要等 money here. So I'm going to wait
稍微多一点 但这对多头来说是个好消息 他们可能仍然 a little bit more. But it's good news for the bulls. They might be still
想要进一步推动这一点 wanting to push this further up.
空头想要反转 所以 这意味着他们必须收盘形成空头形态 Bears want to reverse it down. So that means they have to close a bear body
低于6点 他们似乎仍在获利 below the 6 point. They're kind of still taking profit.
但是他们能关闭熊的实体吗 或者我们要去关闭 But will they be able to close a bear body or are we going to go and close
高于趋势线 我还是得给 above the trend line I still have to give
有机会 瞧 它们 bears a chance here. Look they are
这里很精彩 就因为它前进了6个百分点 看看我们现在在哪里 看看 exciting here. Just because it moved 6 points. Look where we are. Look at
实体 不用担心影线 实体 the body. Don't worry about the wick. That body
收盘价低于6点 他们打算迅速将其降至9点 closes below that 6 point. They're going to rush it down to 9
很快就能达到 10 分 但如果失败了 to 10 points very quickly. But if it fails
合上熊身它就涨了 为什么 to close bear body and it goes up why
因为 你看 你从这里测量 Because look you measure from here. Okay.
实体收盘在哪里 别担心影线 看看多头实体在哪里 Where did the body close Don't worry about the wick. Look where the bull body
已关闭 22 分 为了达到 30 分 closed. 22 points. In order to get to the 30 points
或获得额外的 5 分 or get an additional 5 extra points
超过 20 分 他们需要关闭高于 above 20 points they needed to close a body above
21.75 21.75到了 他们关门了 21.75. 21.75 is here. They closed
大约在 21.75 左右 at yeah around 21.75 or
22 我想是22 我只是没能很好地对齐 是的 那是 22. I think that's 22. I'm just not aligning well. Yeah that's
22. 所以 从技术上讲 尽管这看起来即将发生 22. So technically even though this looks like it's coming
下降 实际上可能会上升 所以这只能是一个 down it could actually go up. So this could only be a
延长获利回吐 然后突然间 这 extended profit taking. And then suddenly this
空头线实际上收于 6 点以上 bear bar actually closes above 6 point.
多头队可以达到30分 40分的涨幅 所以 他们可能会再赢一次 Bulls can get to the 30 point 40 point up. So they could get another
20 分 空头正试图关闭空头主体 20 points. Bears are trying to close a bear body to
尽量降低风险 无效 minimize that risk. Invalidate
多头想要获得更多 但你的任务是获利了结 bulls wanting to get more. But your job is to take profit
就在这里 不用担心这个 所以 我赚了很多钱 at here and not worry about this. So I've taken a lot of profit
到了这里 我到达了我的 here. I reach my
2R 目标 我达到了我的预期 实际预期 2R target. I reach my projected actual projected
目标 市场正在下跌 三 target. Market is coming down. Three
腿 从第一次矫正开始 legs. From first correction starting
指向第二个修正 结束点 point to the second correction ending point
我寻找目标 我们仍然可以下来 但是 I look for target. We could still come down. But
如果空头K线体收盘价高于 6 点 if that body of that bear bar closes above 6 point
再加 5 个 再加 10 个 我们就可以达到 30 个 add another 5 add another 10 we could get to the 30
在空头真正出现之前 我们就可以达到 40 点 we could get to the 40 point before bears actually show up.
空头是如何出现在这里 嗯 他们需要收于6以下 How do the bears show up here Well they need to close the body below 6
点 顺便说一下 他们已经达到了10分 point. They already reached their 10 point by the way.
他们已经卖出了 达到了10点 你看 它甚至低于 They already sold and reached their 10 point. Look it even went below
10 分 两分 但是 这实在太多了 10 point two ticks. But that was just too much.
这还没有得到证实 然而 现在 That's without the confirmation. However now
如果空头收盘价低于 10 点 天哪 他们可能会达到 15 if the bears close below that 10 point gosh they could get to the 15
点 如果他们愿意 他们甚至可以卖20点 point. They could even sell 20 points if they wanted
事情进展得有点快 因为 to. Things are getting a little bit speedy here because
一天就要结束了 快结束了 we're getting to the end of day close.
所以 现在市场已经上涨了10点 现在 所有的空头 So now market already moved 10 points. Now all the bears
现在要做的就是关闭下面一只熊的实体 need to do now is to close a bear body below
11.75 无论是这个还是下一个 11.75 either this one or the next
K线 然后预计15点 采取一些 bar then expect 15 point take some
把钱从桌子上拿走 然后寻找 19 到 20 money off the table and then look for 19 to 20
指向下方 男孩 points down. Boy.
你之所以会经历这种情况 是因为你没有 You're experiencing this because you did not
获利了结 你看 我测量了很多方法 我测量了那里 take profit. Look I measured so many ways. I measured there
我测量了缺口 I measured the gap
并达到市场 and market reached
经过深思熟虑的动作 然后给了你一些 我不寻求 the measured move and then gave you some. I don't look for
2R 当我测量实体缺口时 用 2R when I'm measuring the body gaps okay with
三个相同颜色的条 不能是两个保险杠 three identical colored bars. It cannot be two bull bars
和一根空头线 不可能是两根空头线和一根多头线 那不是缺口 and a bear bar. It cannot be two bear bars and a bull bar. That's not the gap
我正在量 颜色必须一致 像这样 I'm measuring. It has to be identical color like this.
那里有一个 它有三种相同的颜色 62 There's one there. It's three identical colors 62
63 和 64 所以我测量了缺口 我 63 and 64. So I'm measuring the gap and I
找到了我的目标 这就是你所需要的 你 got my target. That's all you need from this. You
不追求2R 这就是你想要的 are not going for the 2R. This is what you're going for.
然后对于熊 他们拿出了一个 And then for bears they took out a
牛身力量非常强劲 就在那里 所以这是 very strong bull body close there. So that's
他们的 1R 他们得到了 1.5 但却没能得到 2R their 1R. They got a 1.5 but they couldn't get the 2R.
好吧 那现在怎么办 把它去掉 All so now what Get rid of that.
空头收盘价是否低于 Did the bears close below
6 是的 他们确实这么做了 所以这实际上仍然是 6 Yes they did. So this is still actually
看跌 但他们也达到了 10 点的波动 bearish but they reached their 10 point swing way too
早点 好吧 所以现在 我认为没有人 early okay. So now I don't think anyone's
现在还不能在这里卖 现在 如果有人卖了却没有获利 selling here just yet. Now if anybody sold and didn't take a profit
他们正在抛售回调 现在你该怎么做 they're selling the pullback. Now what do you do
好吧 测量一下它从 72 的低点上涨了多少 Well measure how much it moves up from the 72 low
那我就把这个处理掉吧 他们要多少钱 So let me get rid of this. How much do they
移动或他们需要移动多少才能成为 move or how much do they need to move to become
看涨 他们需要上涨6个以上 bullish They need to move 6 plus
点 但他们需要关闭高于 6 点的实体才能达到 10 point but they need to close the body above 6 point to get to the 10
点 现在看涨了吗 嗯 之前就已经看涨了 这是一次回调 point. Is this now bullish Well it was already bullish. This was a pullback.
然而 由于空头达到 10 分 并且 However because bears reached 10 points and
收盘价低于6 这仍然是看跌的 所以这些多头 closed below 6 this is still bearish. So these bulls are
现在 就像 你知道 我们不能继续测量 这一动作 now like you know we can't keep measuring from here. This move
完成了 我们现在必须从 72 的低点开始测量 is done. We have to now measure from the 72 low.
所以他们正试图夺回市场 So they're trying to take back the market.
所以他们想把门槛设在 6 分以上 这样他们就可以 So they want to close the bar above the 6 point so then they can
达到 10 分 15 分和 20 分 所以如果这个K线 get to the 10 point and the 15 and the 20. So if this bar
现在收盘价高于 6 点 情况将变得看涨 now closes bullish above 6 point things are going to get bullish very
快 多头会想要达到10 quick. And the bulls will want to get to the 10
点很快 然后是14到15 point very quickly. And then the 14 to 15
点 我会标记14 point. I'll mark the 14.
您可以获得 1 分或 20 分 You can expect one extra point or 20 point.
19到20 但我需要看到 19 to 20. But I need to see the
6关闭 6 close.
事情正在加速发展 Things are speeding up. It's
一天结束的时候 那是因为多头正试图到达这里 the end of the day. That's because bulls are trying to reach here.
事实上 第一个目标 Actually the first target
是这样的 那间K线的结尾 is this. The close of that bar.
我不知道我们是否能达到这个目标 但这就是他们想要的 I don't know if we're going to be reaching there but this is what they want
至少如此 我怎么知道的 我们也有类似的情况 at the very minimum. How do I know that We had a similar setup
星期五 瞧 我们上去了 on Friday. Look we went up
三条腿 然后我说 three legs. And then I said
对每个人来说 所以这是一次回调 两次 to everybody. So here is one pullback two
回调 三次 这是第一次回调 这是 pullback three. So here is the first pullback here is the
第二 所以从这里到这里 这是 second. So from here to here this was the
看跌 但我告诉所有人 bearish. But I told everybody
周五不卖 on Friday do not sell
直到达到这个高点 until this high is taken
出去 我们在第63小节把它拿掉了 我说 out. We took that out with bar 63. I said
然后开始向所有人推销 所以我们开始低价卖出 then start selling everybody. So we start to sell underneath
62. 卖了 但我告诉大家 如果有一根强劲的牛栏 62. Sold but I told everybody if there's a strong bull bar
你必须首先 就像在那个高点 you have to first like either at the high of that
但我一般会选择实体 是的 这就是目标 bar but I generally take the body. Yes this is the target
48 低和预计目标 但是 48 low and the projected target. But
我们将面临很多挑战 we're going to get a lot of challenging.
所以多头将挑战空头 所以如果你从 63 开始卖出 So the bulls are going to challenge the bears. So if you're selling from 63
当我告诉他们卖出时 你必须立即获利 when I told them to sell you have to take profit there.
看看我们弹跳得有多厉害 但我们关不上保险杠 And look how much we bounce. But we couldn't close bull bars.
所以现在我们又回到了原点 这是一个后续步骤 所以现在我说如果 So now we're coming back down. That's a follow through bar. So now I said if
我们收盘价低于 34.50 再增加几份合约 we close below 34.50 add a couple more contracts.
再签订几份合约并预计 48 条低点 Couple more contracts and expect bar 48 low.
我们跌到48美元的低点 然后我们真的突破了 所以我说坚持住 We came down to 48 low and then we actually breached. So I said hold it
直到我们标记出那条趋势线 然后我们标记 until we tag that trend line. And we tag
反弹前的趋势线 对我来说就是这样 that trend line before bouncing up. That was it for me.
他们甚至卖得更多 但谁在乎呢 我们已经赚到钱了 They even sold more but who cares We already made our money.
最终 这真是太惊人了 That was a whopping at the end of the day
34.35点的波动 说34 swing of 34.35 points. Say 34.
34.5. 如果您入场的价格低于 63 34.5. If you entered one tick below 63
当我说卖的时候 你赚了 when I said sell you made about
34.5分 我的意思是 这就像 34.5 points. I mean that was like the end of the
复活节前特别 special before Easter.
很棒的交易 Great trade.
因此现在多头正在试图收盘 So now bulls trying to close.
这很好 但如果他们失败了 Which is great but if they fail
它可以掉下来 如果他们关闭 it can come down. If they close
然后期望很快得到10分 then expect quickly 10 points.
那是 11 10 就在那里 That's 11. 10 is there.
然后期待... Then expect...
我寻找 14 但由于它移动速度很快 它可能想测试 I look for 14 but since it's moving fast it probably wants to test the
15 但我会坚持我的规则 15 but I'm going to stick to my rules.
14 是平均值 所以我们可能就能达到这个数字 然后是 20 14 is average so we'll probably get there. And then 20
将会成为现实 is going to be actual
荡波段吧宝贝 哦 看那个 swing baby swing. Oh look at that.
现在是 15 点 35 分 我要打开问题箱了 It's 15.35 so I'm going to open the question box.
我想回答几个问题 Okay so I'll take a few questions.
我们有 6 plus 关闭吗 Al do we have a 6 plus close
是的 我们得到10分了吗 Yes. Did we get the 10 point
是的 它突然拉回来了吗 那是什么 Yes. Did it pull back suddenly What is that
这是10点的获利回吐 能涨到14点吗 是的 That's 10 point profit taking. Can it go to 14 point Yes
这就是它想要达到的目标 它实际上是想达到15分 所以如果你仍然持有 that's what it's trying to go. It's actually trying to get to the 15 point. So if you're still holding
真棒 你大概能拿到14分的标签 good for you. You're probably going to get a tag of the 14 point.
能涨到20点吗 如果它关闭 Can it go up to 20 point If it closes
超过 15 分 就像 above 15 point like maybe like a
15 又 2 个季度或 15 又 3 个季度 即 15 and 2 quarters or 15 and 3 quarters that would
是你的确认 多头将继续推进到20 be your confirmation. Bulls will continue to push into 20
点 所以现在 point. So now
他们仍在获利 they're still taking profit at a
预计在10到11点区域 10 to 11 point area which is expected
但我现在想看 14 分标签 but I want to see 14 point tag now.
所以我不会继续购买 So I won't follow through buying.
为什么不呢 Why not
这就是 14 因此 我们现在处于多头行情 And that's 14. So we're in a swing bull here.
因此 多头仍然强劲 但趋势已焕然一新 So bulls are still strong here but with a brand new trend
设置 所以他们已经获得了14分的平均分 set up. So they already got their 14 point average.
他们想要 15 到 20 个 我们很可能得到这 20 个 不仅 They want 15 to 20. And most likely we will get that 20. Not only
我们可能会把价格定在 66.75 所以如果我 that we're probably going to tag 66.75. So if I were
为了标记你 我会坚持到 66.75 to tag you I would hold into 66.75.
然后我们也可以到达这里 And then we could get up to here as well.
你们那边怎么样 赚钱了还是亏钱了 So how you guys doing over there Are you making money or are you losing
你不听我的 你反而卖了 现在还在哭 You didn't listen to me You sold instead and now you're crying about
是吗 我没笑 因为我知道下次我说做点什么的时候 it I'm not laughing. Because I know next time when I say do something
你会成功的 就这样 我们得到了20多个 现在是个好时机 you're going to do it. So there you go. We got the 20 plus. Now is a good
是时候获利了结了 它实际上可能会下跌 记住 time to take profit. It can actually come down. Remember
我只是向你展示它是如何工作的 I just show you how it would work.
这就是那家K线 相反 我们的 This is that bar. Instead ours
是一根空头K线 因为我们的股价在上涨 所以这根K线卖出了 is a bare bar because we're going upwards. So this one sold into it.
所以它很有弹性 我们向那间空荡荡的K线鞠躬致意 So it's bouncing. We bowed into that bare bar.
40. 现在我们又跳了下去 情况还是一样 40. Now we're bouncing down. It's the same thing.
事实恰恰相反 It's just the other way around.
所以现在你应该获利了结 在20 So now you should have taken profit. At the 20
另外 它给你足够的空间 plus it gave you plenty of room
获利了结 所以没借口 我告诉你做多 to take profit. So no excuse. I told you to go long.
如果你不听我的话 我确信你会听 If you didn't listen to me I'm pretty sure you will listen
下次 能再高一点吗 next time. Can it go higher
是的 它希望达到目标72.50 Yeah. It wants to get to the target 72.50.
但实际目标是 But the actual target is actually
76.50 所以我们可以到达那里 76.50. So we could get there.
我读了盘带 但每次我进去的时候 I read the tape. But every time I go in
相反 你必须计算 it goes the opposite. You're going to have to count the
分 进展太快了 但这是 points. It's moving too fast. But it's the end of
那天 但你拥有了一切 the day. But you had all
进入的机会 即使在这里 我说 the opportunity to enter. Even here I said
看 市场波动了10点 但一旦波动6点 look market moved 10 points. But once it goes 6 points
上涨 就是这样 他们在6点以上收盘 形成了一个多头K线 请看73号K线 up that's it. They close a bull bar above 6 points. Look at bar 73.
这就像是在对你大喊 我要给你 10 分 That's screaming at you saying I'm going to give you a 10 point
我会给你 15 分 也可能给你 20 分 and I'm going to give you a 15 point. I might give you a 20 point.
每个人都得 20 分 Everybody gets a 20 point.
你只需要学习 You just have to learn
机器如何交易 一旦你掌握了它 how machines trade. Once you get it
一旦你理解了这一点并进入了节奏 once you understand that and get into that rhythm
你将成为机器 你会感觉自己像一台机器 你会 you're going to be the machine. You're going to feel like a machine. You're going to
像机器一样说话 你也会像机器一样做事 你将会成为那台机器 talk like a machine. You're going to do like a machine. You're going to be the machine.
我不是在开玩笑 I'm not joking.
当我这样做的时候 我立刻就成为了赢家 When I did that I was a winner instantly.
我进行的每笔交易都是成功的 Every other trade I've taken was a winner.
5 点是初步区间 记住什么 5 point is an initial scop. Remember what
Elle 谈到了望远镜 Elle says about the scops.
以前是1分 后来变成了2分 现在 It used to be 1 point and then turned to be 2 points. Now
标普的平均区间是 最小区间是 5 点 the average scop is minimum scop is 5 point on S&P.
Elle 怎么说 你的最低波段数是多少 10 分 What does Elle say What is your minimum swing 10 point.
在这期间你的持续波动是怎样的 What is your continuation swing in between
14 到 15 点 所以机器更早地 14 to 15 point. So machines scop earlier
大约 13 到 14 当市场快速发展时 它会达到 around 13 to 14. When the market is fast it'll reach to
15. 但实际波动平均线现在是 15. But actual swing average is now
这些天是20分 那么 获得 these days is 20 point. So how easy is it to get
到20分 你看 我们用这条腿做到了 我们在这里做到了 to 20 point Look we did that in here with this leg. We did that here.
我将开始回答一些问题 I'm going to start answering some questions.
Okay
我完全被Discord上那些礼物迷住了 真是疯了 I'm totally distracted with the gifts that are being posted on the Discord. It's crazy.
好了 伙计们 稳住 注意听 Okay guys. Get a grip. Pay attention.
会买以上 Al . Would buying above
67 有效 因为它收于 50% 以上 67 be valid because it closed above the 50%
区间 区间在裸露的实体之间 of the range. The range being between the bare body
水平64 裸身开启62 level of 64 and the bare body open of 62.
就是这里 你是指腿吗 This here You mean the leg
区间就在这里 这形成了 Range is here. Okay. This formed
看 它下降了 又上升了 所以区间就形成了 a look it came down went up. So the range is formed.
这是你的区间 来 从 This is your range. Here take it from the
从边到边 从边到边 edge to edge. Okay. Take it from the edge to edge.
不用担心 但如果你想准确的话 Don't worry about. But if you want to be accurate
带走实体 take the body
然后接受那个实体 所以这是你的 and then take that body. So this is your
区间 现在我们突破了 所以也许 range. And now we're breaking above it. So maybe
把那个也拿走 就是这样 这是实际的 take that one too. That's it. This is the actual
区间 你看 这是假突破 假突破 range. Look is fake breakout fake breakout
假突破 没有突破 现在 fake breakout. No breakout. Now
你有50% you have a 50%.
我们的收盘价超过 50% We closed above 50%.
现在我们已经超过了门槛 我们有一个 And now we're getting above the threshold. We have a
收盘价高于门槛 我们将会突破 我们将测试这个高点 我们将测试这个 close above the threshold. We're going to break out. We're going to test that high. We're going to test that
高 我们可能会采取谨慎的行动 我们采取谨慎的行动了吗 high. We're probably going to go to the measured move. Did we go to the measured move
是的 我们可以去2R吗 可能吧 Yes. Can we go to 2R Probably.
因此 只要收盘价高于 66.75 So as long as we close above 66.75
我们将去测试 39 的高点 we're going to go and test the 39 high.
就在那里 那么 2R 在哪里 Which is there. So where's 2R
就在那里 两倍 或者 Is there. Two times that. Or
你会觉得 不 这太花哨了 不合我的口味 我还是选择边缘部分吧 you're like no this is too fancy for my taste. I'm going to stick to the edges.
这就是我的高潮 也是我的低谷 So that's my high. That's my low.
我要去1R 你在这里可以休息一下 I'm going to go for a 1R. Okay. You get a breakout here.
你的 1R 就在那里 或者说 有节制的动作 Your 1R is there. Or measured move.
不管你怎么称呼它 所以这就是你要的 Whatever you call it. So that's what you're going for.
一次区间 高度投射 The one time the range height projected up
是你的慎重动作 所以你应该坚持下去 is your measured move. So you should be holding into here.
74.75 74.75.
明白了吗 下一个 Make sense Al . Next.
因此在计算点数时 So in point counting
终于有人对此感到兴奋了 这很好 因为这正是我一直在尝试的 finally somebody's excited about it. That's good because that's what I've been trying
想在这里做点什么 伙计们 我想让你们兴奋起来 to do here. Trying to guys get you excited about point
因为它肯定会给你带来很好的结果 counting because it surely is going to give you great results.
当市场非常 Not when market is very
像上周一样动荡 前一周简直疯狂 简直疯了 volatile like last week. It was insane the week before. It was crazy.
你将得到的 你的最低限度将是 You're going to get your minimum scops are going to be
10点 最低波动幅度为20点 你应该始终关注 10 point and minimum swings are going to be 20 point. You should always look for
在那样的时刻 40 40 点移动 40 in times like that. 40 point move.
所以在点数计算中 Okay. So in point counting in a
多头趋势 如果空头得到 6 点 6 点 bull trend if bears get a 6 point 6 point
加 6 分和额外的厚 plus 6 point and an additional thick
回调 然后重置多头数量 pullback then it resets the count for bulls.
是的 正确 但它会重置 Yes correct. But it resets the
但它仍然可能是回调 浅回调 count but it could still be a pullback shallow pullback.
只有当 Only the count actually resets is if
实际上空头得到了 9 到 10 分 actually bears get a 9 to 10 point
标签 这意味着多头趋势已经结束 tag. That means the bull trend is capito. It's done.
完成了 这意味着 Finished. Okay. So that means
空头有趋势 市场波动5点 bears have a trend. Moving the market 5 point
是一个区间 移动市场5加1点 is a scop. Moving the market 5 plus 1 point
等于 6 点是看涨 equals 6 point is bullish
市场告诉你的压力 平仓 pressure that the market is telling you. Closing a
空头低于 6 点是确认 bear bar below 6 point is a confirmation of
看跌压力可能会继续 the bearish pressure build that may want to go and get
它的第一个波段目标在9到10点 明白了吗 its first swing target at 9 to 10 point. Make sense
肯尼 下一个 Kenny Okay. Next.
罗斯 这是 Rose this is for
稍后再说 我很幸运没有 Discord 你能 later. I'm lucked out of Discord. Can you please
需要帮助吗 我无法进入 Brooks 或你的 Discord help I'm not able to enter Brooks or your Discord.
哦 你肯定做了什么 如果你不能同时进入 Oh you must have done something. If you cannot enter the both
你做了什么 我不知道 what did you do I don't know.
我不知道你发生了什么事 我不认为……把你的 I don't know what happened to you. I don't think... Send me your
Discord 名称和 ID 我看一下 Discord name and ID. I'll just take a look
看看你是否处于暂停状态 我没有屏蔽任何人 也没有 to see if you were in a timeout. I didn't block anybody or
我实际上并没有将任何人踢出布鲁克斯交易课程 I don't really kick anybody out of the Brooks trading course.
Discord 我看到了一些东西 我把它发了 Discord. I see something. I send it
如果可以的话 我会伸出援手去处理 除非你 if I can and reach out to handle it. Unless you're
欺负我 侮辱我 哦 是的 你马上就走 picking on me and insulting me. Oh yeah you'll be out of there in a second.
我甚至不会等待几秒钟 I won't even just wait for a few seconds.
但我什么都没做 所以那真的不是我 But I have done nothing so that's not me really.
但你一定做了一些事 But you must have done something.
无论如何 我会去看看 没问题 这是我要问的地方吗 Anyway I'll check it out. No problem. Is this where I would ask
有问题吗 是的 香农 你可以直接提问 a question Yes Shannon. You can ask your questions
这里 下一个 here. Next.
哇 问题来了 Wow questions are coming in. Would a
按照第 56 条规定设立的母条是否有效 mother bar set up with bar 56 have been valid
我不认为 I don't think
第 56 节是母节 因为第 57 节来自 bar 56 is a mother bar because bar 57 came
向下并标记下面的一个勾号 除非你在另一个…… down and tagged one tick below. Unless you are on another...
也许你正处于一个微型市场 也许它们都是相同的低点 但在 Maybe you're in a micro. Maybe they're identical lows. But on
ES 56不是母棒 58 the ES 56 is not the mother bar. 58
是你妈妈吧 你看到它往下跳了一格吗 is your mother bar. Do you see it went one tick below
所以那不是一个妈妈吧 So that is not a mother bar.
但 58 是 所以你可以根据你的 But the 58 is. So you can base your
交易价格在 58 区间内 trading on 58 range.
哦 等等 发生什么事了 哦 是的 我们还要继续 Oh wait. What's happening here Oh yeah we're still going.
所以我想我们就能得到这个了 So I think we're just going to get that. Al .
这太棒了 因为我忘记了我还在做交易 This is great because I forgot that I'm still in a trade.
让我停下来 这样他们就不会 Okay. Let me move to stop so they won't
接我 get me. Okay.
有没有指标 Is there any indicator on
我可以将TradingView用作 L 的衡量动作吗 trading view I can use as L's measured move
我正在使用斐波那契回撤 但并不太喜欢它 I'm using Fib retracement but don't really like it.
嗯 你可以使用 Well you can use the
是的 你当然可以 Yeah. You can definitely
利用风险回报 有风险回报 use the risk reward. There is the risk reward.
让我看看是否真的可以向你展示 Let me see if I can actually show you.
我前几天确实展示过 有点…… I did show the other day. It's kind of...
我不喜欢这样 它不够快 但 I don't like that. It's not fast enough for my taste but
也许你会喜欢 所以请稍等一下 maybe you would like that. So just give me a second.
稍等一下 就是这样 Give me a second. So here it is.
对 比如说 . So for example
斐波那契回撤就在那里 Fib retracement is there.
所以我选择那个 So I take that one.
这就是那个 R That's the one R
或者测量结果就在那里移动 所以我从 or the measured move there. So I measured from
整个交易区间是从高到低 the trading range this whole thing is high to low.
这就是我的200% 你不喜欢这个吗 And that's my 200%. You don't like this one
那么就做多吧 Okay. Then long position.
事情到了这里…… Okay. This is where it gets...
我根本没看到 就在这里 I can't even see it. Here.
将其设置为 1 Set it up to 1.
这就是我不喜欢这个的原因 This is why I don't like this.
2375 2375
2375. 这是你的 2375. That's your
一个 R one R.
嗯 我想是的 比例一 就是这样 Yeah I guess. Ratio one. There you have it.
也许你可以设置它 Maybe you can set it up.
我不知道 我不太用这个 批量大小 I don't know. I don't really use this. Lot size.
我不知道 I don't know.
我不太用它 不过你可以玩 I don't really use it. But you can play
就这样 with it. That would be it.
或者如果你购买 Or if you buy
在该K线的收盘价处 你把止损点设在那里 the close of that bar and you put your stop there
那么你就选择2R then you go for 2R.
您在这里得到了 2R You got the 2R here.
2R. 如果你买入高于该标准 2R. If you buy above that bar
那么你应该选择 then you should be going for
2R. 就是那儿 2R. That there.
任何更多的东西都是奖励 Anything more is bonus.
某某 So and so.
我不知道你还能用什么 I don't know what else you can use.
我不知道 I'm not sure.
你可以测量 但我认为这太费工作量了 You can measure but I think that's just too much work.
或者你也可以 Or you could just
放一个盒子 put a box.
Okay.
我觉得那个盒子是白色的 不过等等 我知道我能行 等等 I think that box is white. But hold on. I know I can do this. Hold on.
是的 Yeah.
边界 我不知道 我不知道是什么 Border. I don't know. I don't know what's
发生了什么事 我不确定 going on. I'm not sure.
为什么这不起作用 哦 背景 Why is this not working Oh background.
好吧 这样就好多了 Al . That's better.
进而 And then
复制粘贴 哎呀 coPOI and paste. Oops.
这实在是太麻烦了 It's just so much work.
就这样 我们已经达到了预期的进展 And that's it. So we already reached the measured move.
Okay.
哦 看看这个 所以我们不仅达到了预期的移动 Oh look at that. So not only we reached the measured move
但我们也达到了我的目标 还能更高吗 but we also reached my target. Can it go higher
是的 当然 Yeah sure.
为什么不呢 让我锁上它 Why not Let me lock this.
我不想离开这一切 等等 I don't want to leave all that. Hold on.
它正试图上升到 It's trying to go up to
第 22 栏 我们终于可以 bar 22. We could finally get
那里有一些卖家 但如果我 some sellers there. But if I
是你吗 只剩下七分钟了 我们可以回到移动的 were you there's only seven minutes left. We could pull back to the moving
平均水平 我会在这里获利 因为 average. I would take profit here because
这个……是的 我明白 this... yeah I get that
他们看到了双顶 但我认为我们必须测试22点的低点 they see a double top. But I think we're going to have to test the 22 low
或这个地区 我不会相信这一点 or this area. I wouldn't trust this.
我认为它正在努力实现这一点 或者 I think it's trying to get there. Or
另一种计算方法是...让我看看 another way to calculate is... let me see.
我会用这个 I will use this
我希望那是你的目标 下一个目标 and I look for that is your target next target.
223% 223 percent.
我们甚至可以达到……如果它加速 我们可以达到 261 然后 We can even reach... if it accelerates we could reach the 261 and then come
下来 这是一天结束的时候 我真的 down. It's the end of the day. I really
会有一些利润 我的意思是 你们正在把它推向 would take some profit. I mean you guys you're pushing it into
收盘 这是一个主要的供应区 the close. This is a major supply zone.
这是一个供应区 空头正在寻找某种 This is a supply zone and the bears are looking for some kind of
双顶或第二次入场做空 现在 如果它真的上涨 double top or a second entry short. Now if it does push
有时它会在供应区上方进行测试 sometimes it tests above the supply zones
然后大家仍然在购买它 然后它就崩溃了 and then everybody's still buying it and then it collapses.
另一个供给区是K线图 14 The other supply zone is the bar 14.
好吗 然后大约 Okay And then approximately
如果他们加速的话 我们也可以到达那里然后下来 if they accelerate we could also reach there and then come down.
但这是一个非常有效的供应区 But this is a very valid supply zone.
三条熊杠 一 二 三 然后是另一条腿 Three bear bars. One two three. And then another leg
被拉回 卖出 所以 我们没有得到 is pulled back sold. So we didn't get
这里没有任何卖出信号 所以 这仍然有效 它可能会上涨 any sell signals here. So this is still a valid. It could go up
突破它 但如果它没有在上方形成一个多头实体 breach it but if it doesn't close a bull body above
在这个区域 空头将会卖出 the zone bears will sell.
其他人都会被困住 我们实际上可以回调 Everybody else will get trapped. And we could actually pull back
突然就5分 10分 20分了 这里要小心 5 10 20 points suddenly. Be careful here.
是的 它还在上升 我明白 它可能还在试图达到 Yes it's still going up. I get it. It might be still trying to get to
95 50 它可能会加速 the 95 50. It could accelerate maybe
超越结束 意味着 beyond the close meaning
下午 4 点 可能还会持续 15 4 p.m. It could keep going another 15
分钟 但无论在这里还是那里 卖家都在等待 minutes but either here or there sellers are waiting.
由于今天已经结束 所以我会获利 Since it's the end of the day I would take profit.
最好是 你生我的气 It's better to be you be mad at me
当钱到你口袋的时候 没关系 我会接受的 when the money is in your pocket. I'm okay I'll take that.
我会接受你对我大喊大叫 嘿 你让我退出交易 I'll take that you yell at me hey you made me get out of the trade.
你把钱存起来 而不是 You bank that money okay Rather than
你获利了结 然后留下几份合约 然后它就崩溃了 you take some profit and you leave a couple of contracts and it collapses
我可以说 嘿 我是对的 你是错的 但是 back down and I could say hey I was and you were wrong but
你现在对自己吼叫 我不想这样 我宁愿你拿着钱 now you're yelling at yourself. I don't want that. I'd rather you to take the money
把它存入银行 然后对我大喊大叫 因为我把这么多钱留在桌子上 bank it and then yell at me for leaving so much on the table.
谁在乎 已经下午4点了 Who cares It's already 4 p.m.
好吧 如果有人 Okay so if somebody is
抱怨网络研讨会屏幕显示迟到 我现在就告诉你们 complaining about webinar screen being late and I'll tell you guys now
看看顶角 take a look at the top corner
面板的中心 我一边读 一边 the center of the panel. I read it as I
说话 上面写着15分钟 对不起 speak. It says 15 minutes I'm sorry
下午3点 57 3 p.m. 57
现在是21秒 22秒 minutes 20 seconds now. Now 21 seconds 22 seconds
23秒 24秒 所以不应该是一分钟 23 seconds 24 seconds. So it should not be a one minute
延迟一下 大概几秒钟 delay okay Maybe a couple of seconds.
下一个问题 Al next question.
它试图达到 It's trying to reach the
95 对不起 95 50 但我不知道 95 I'm sorry 95 50 but I don't know.
当我们的缺口这么大时 我感到紧张 I get nervous when we gap up this much.
它仍在尝试进入蜂窝区 我没有看到蜂窝 It's still trying to get to the cell zone. I don't see a cell
信号线 所以我明白了 也许这不是一个好 signal bar so I get it. Maybe it's not a good
是时候退出了 它仍然可能上涨 但它可能 time to exit it could still go up but it could
崩溃 它可能会上升 collapse okay It could go up
把所有人都困住 然后再次倒塌 它能上升吗 and trap everybody and then collapse back down. Can it go up
到 1 号K线了吗 它能一直到 1 号K线和 2 号K线吗 to the bar 1 Can it go all the way up to bar 1 and bar 2
我的意思是 还有充足的时间 但是 I mean there's still plenty of time but
他们必须卖 他们要么在这里卖 要么在那里卖 他们有 they have to sell. They have to either sell here or sell there. They have
卖掉 所以至少获利离开 to sell. So at least take some profit and leave
也许一份合约 看看它是否真的一路上涨 maybe a one contract and see if it actually runs all the way up
或许会抵抗 to maybe resistance.
这次 这可能是阻力 但我们会到达 This time this could be the resistance but that we would reach
明天 我不认为我们会突然 that tomorrow. I don't think we're gonna suddenly go
一直向上 这是一个杯子 杯子需要一个大点数 all the way up. This is a cup. Cup needs a handle.
所以我们需要回调 如果你继续买入 So we need a pullback. And if you keep buying
他们可能会在铃声响起时或铃声响后立即诱捕你 they could trap you at the bell or after bell
但他们可以 我还要回答几个问题 but they could. Al I'm gonna take a couple more questions.
Elbrook 档案馆 您推荐哪一年的 Elbrook Archives is there any year that you recommend from
Elbrook 档案馆 哦 你可以一直追溯到 Elbrook Archives Oh you could go all the way back to like
2018年19日 2018 19
我相信 2000年 2000 I believe
21 否则就开始减少他的时间 21 else started to reduce his time.
所以你不会有五天 So you're not gonna get five days a
每周 每天都有满课 week full sessions every day
但他们仍然很棒 所以也许 but still they're great. So maybe
到 2019 年 2020 年 by like 2019 2020
和 and
这都是埃尔布鲁克的 it was all Elbrook's
至2022年7月18日 until 2022 July 18.
然后我们就加入了 And then we joined. Okay.
所以其他一切都是会议 So it was all else sessions.
下一个问题 Next question.
测量移动工具可以 Measured move tools can be
忍者交易员 有好几个 就是这样 他们赚了一些钱 Ninja Trader. There's several. There you go. Some profit they
可以开始了 这不太好卖 信号线78 但是 can begin. That's not a good sell. Signal Bar 78 but
我们开始看到裸露的实体 然后我们再回去 we start to get a bare body. Then we're gonna go back up
顺便说一下 然后再测试一下 我从不卖第一个 and retest it by the way. I never sell the first one
但只要它是 but it could still give you a five or ten points as long as it's a
赤裸的实体 所以有几个有节奏的动作 所以我 bare body. So there's several measured moves. So I
利用斐波那契回撤 我创建了 utilize the Fibonacci retracement. I created
一个模板 这是我默认绘制的 a template and this is what I plot by default.
或者您可以使用风险回报 Or you can use the risk reward.
我把它们附上了 我正在使用热键 I attached them. I'm using a hot keys.
所以 R 代表奖励 alt 代表 R 所以基本上 So R for reward alt R. So basically
如果我要用这两个条 is if I'm going to use this two bar
这是我当时慎重的动作 我们成功了 然后它就跑偏了 that's my measured move there. And we got it. And it went sideways
然后它就下来了 然后你双击 如果你 and it came down. Then you double click is if you're
要去争取两个 R 那就是你的两个 R gonna go for two R that's your two R.
如果你想追求 3R If you wanna go for three R
在我们真正采取双足行动之前 这就是三个 R and that's the three R before we actually had a two legged move
根据第一和第二根K线以及突破向上 up based upon the bar one and two and the breakout.
你也可以说我要用 You could also say is I'm going to use
只有一个 这是你的衡量动作 但我要衡量 just one that's your measured move but I'm going to measure
缺口 测量缺口 the gap. Okay measuring gap.
就是这样 你测量的是缺口 这就是 So there you go. You're measuring the gap and that's
你会得到什么 然后它继续 what you get. And then it continues.
如果你接受这个怎么办 那么 What if you take that Then that
是你衡量的移动目标 因此它会继续下降 is your measured move target. So it continues to come down more.
我也会接受这一点 因为这是一个不错的突破 I would also take that because a nice breakout this would be
我的实际 所以与其这样 my actual. So instead of taking that
确认了 非常有力 there's a confirmation. Really strong
裸露的K线关闭方式低于这些 bare bar closing way below these
腿 这就是你实际测量的动作 legs. So that is your actual measured move
在它双腿上涨之前 所以你应该获利了结 before it goes up with two legs. So you should be taking profit
到 5153 您可以使用那个 to 5153. You can use that one.
更干净 It's cleaner.
肯尼 我想也许你…… Kenny I guess maybe you're...
让我解释一下 Okay so let me explain this.
你说我不明白 所以最终的要点 You're saying that I didn't understand so ultimately the in point
回调必须收于 10 点以下才能重置 pullback has to close below 10 points to reset.
你在重置什么 你得告诉我 What are you resetting You need to tell me that.
你到底在重置什么 你是在重置一种趋势吗 What exactly are you resetting Are you resetting a trend
如果多头趋势持续 而空头实际上推动了市场 If a bull trend continues and the bears actually move the market
6 点 它们只是在向你展示压力 看跌 six points they're just showing you a pressure. A bearish
压力可能会扩大10个百分点 pressure could go swing 10 points.
如果市场向相反方向波动 10 点 If a market swing 10 points in the opposite direction
先前的方向或 the previous direction or
现在趋势已经减弱了 the trend now gets weakened.
所以这不再是一个趋势 如果相反的方向推动市场 10 So it's no longer a trend. If the opposite side is moving market 10
点波段 他们可能想移动另一个额外的 point swing they may want to move another additional
10 分 然后争取 20 分 那么 10 points and go for a 20 point swing. So what happens to the
之前的多头趋势 它已经减弱了 它已经减弱了 previous bull trend It's already weakened. It's already weakened
出现您不应该预料到的 10 点空头走势 with the 10 point bear move that you should not expect.
多头仍在继续 因此一切重新开始 Bulls continue so that's reset.
我谈到了如果你在等待 你如何跟踪管理你的仓位 I talked about how do you trail manage your positions if you are waiting for
收盘价高于六点 但有时是两点 bars to close above six point but sometimes two bars
失败 fail.
你在等待市场向你展示压力 You're waiting for market to show you pressure
朝那个方向或者新的方向 in that direction or the new direction.
如果你仍然处于多头趋势中 那么多头趋势 假设多头趋势移动了 10 点 If you're still in the bull trend so the bull trend say the bull trend moved 10 points
15分 也许20分 所以你想要更多 15 points maybe 20 points. So you want more
或许你想从中获利40点 所以市场 out of this. Maybe you want 40 points out of it. So the market
走势相反 看跌 五点 moves the opposite traction bearish five points.
那只是获利回吐 是多头的动作 That's just profit taking. It's by the bulls.
空头什么时候开始抛售 如果他们看到压力 When do the bears start to sell If they see pressure
承受压力 最低为五加一分 bear pressure. That's five plus one point minimum.
如果空头看到空头能够继续 If the bears see the bears able to continue to get
超过五分头皮 他们会寻找更多 more than five point scalp they're going to look for more
比六点实体更近 他们看到 than six point body close. They see that
他们可以开始抛售 然后那些多头 they could start to sell. Then those bulls
仍持有 将开始更快地退出 still holding will start to exit faster.
他们会说 哦 这要涨10分 我得拿一些 They'll be like oh this is going to go 10 points. I have to take some
这里有更多利润 这可以增加空头的收盘 more profit here. That can increase the bear bars closing
一个接一个 甚至可能下降到 10 分 one after another and could go all the way down to 10 points.
这就是为什么那六分的收尾很重要 六分加一分 That's why that six point close is important. Six plus point.
加一格 所以 Plus one tick. So
你是怎么应对的 这就是你应对的方式 你看 空头正在上涨 how do you manage it That's how you manage it. You see bears are gaining
他们正在向你展示这种势头 如果你仍然 momentum which they are showing you. If you're still
看涨 如果你仍然持有多头仓位 那么你开始采取更多 bullish if you're still holding your long position then you start to take more
利润 或者你可以退出 profits. Or you can exit out
你可以和空头一起卖出 and you can sell with the bears into the
10点 我不喜欢这样做 如果之前的多头趋势 10 point. I don't like to do that. If the previous bull trend
多头强劲 市场可能波动 was strong bull move market can move
10 点 然后多头可以开始 10 points in the opposite direction and then bulls can start to
再次买入 但他们会重置多头趋势 所以他们会寻找一个全新的 buy again but they would reset the bull trend. So they would be looking for a brand new
多头趋势可能会上涨 6 个点以上 10 个点等等 bull trend that could go six plus points and a 10 point and so on.
所以我通常的做法是 当空头真正抛售时 So what I generally do is that when the bears actually sell
10点 我可以再次开始购买 at 10 points I could start to buy again
当他们达到10分时 因为最有可能的是 如果趋势像这里这样 as they get to their 10 points. Because most likely if the trend like here
就像这里 看到了吗 多头在移动 like here. See Bulls were moving.
他们对市场的影响有多大 大概是20点 How much did they move the market They moved about 20 points
但他们没能超过21分 plus. But they couldn't close beyond 21 point
达到30或40点 所以现在空头开始 to get to the 30 or 40 point. So now bears start to
卖 一开始是获利了结 sell. Okay It started as a profit taking.
而且搬家了大概六年多 And moved about six plus.
但最终未能收盘 所以现在多头 But it couldn't close. So now bulls are
想买 但没有多头结束 所以我不会在那里买 所以我会等 trying to buy but no bull bar closing. So I wouldn't buy there. So I would wait for
看看空头是否会抛售 他们确实抛售了 他们抛售了 see if the bears are gonna sell. They did sell. They sold
大概10个点 没人买 所以我在等他们再卖一些 about 10 points. No one's buying. So I'm waiting for them to sell some more.
大概在15点左右 如果我继续持有 Somewhere around the 15 point. If I'm still holding this long
我开始买入 我预计能赚20点 I start to buy. I can expect the 20 points.
那么我会再次买入 只要我持有 Then that's where I will buy again. Only if I'm holding
所以我预计会出现深度回调 into the long. So I'm expecting a deep pull back
并再次购买 但是 如果 and buying again. However if
这些多头看到市场波动 10 点 但什么也没有 these bulls see market move 10 point and nothing
收盘看涨 这意味着没有人买入 closing bullish. That means no one's buying
获利了结 他们可以在这里退出 into profit taking. They can exit out here.
这就是为什么它最终会下跌更多 所以如果你是多头 并且持有 That's why it ends up coming down more. So if you're a bull and you held
这一个 而你却违背了它 这一个违背了它 你退出 this and you went against it. This one against it. You exit
然后你再以 5 到 10 个点的价格卖出 and then you sell for another 5 to 10 points.
你看 一共是20 所以你赚了这些钱 Look that's a total of 20. So you make that money
然后你看看市场是否会上涨六倍以上 there. And then you look to see if the market is gonna move six plus
点 尤其是如果它上涨10点 这意味着多头可能 points. Especially if it moves 10 points. That means bulls probably
现在他们拥有市场 他们想将其提高 15 到 20 个百分点 now own the market and they wanna move it 15 20 points
甚至可能更多 你得练习一下 maybe even more. You're gonna have to practice it.
所以 无论如何 So anyway.
我要结束他们的评论了 注意 I'm gonna do the end of their review. And notice what
发生在这里 K线70 我要谈论这个 happened here. Bar 70. Okay I'm gonna talk about that.
我也要删掉这个 我可能会想念它 所以 78号K线 I'm gonna delete this also. I'm probably gonna miss it. So Bar 78.
我告诉过你们要获利了结 我不知道我们是否会搬到那里 I told you guys to take profit. I don't know if we're gonna move there.
瞧 第 78 条线没有收成多头实体来继续上涨 Look Bar 78 did not close a bull body to continue up there.
这就是第一次卖出 但是关于第一次卖出 我之前说过什么吗 So that's the first sell. But what did I say about the first sell
我一般不卖它 因为它很可能需要回来 I don't generally sell it. Because most likely it needs to get back
就在这里 最佳卖出方式和最佳交易者方程式 in here. The best way to sell and the best trader's equation
这是第二次卖出 你试图在一个非常紧密的多头通道中卖出 is the second sell. You're trying to sell against a very tight bull channel.
强势空头收盘后总会有买家出现 例如 There are always buyers underneath a strong bear close like
79号K线 这也是我不卖的另一个原因 因为 Bar 79. And that's another reason why I do not sell. Because
多头会试图淡化这种影响 他们仍在努力回到目前的水平 bulls will try to fade it. They're still trying to get back up to here.
但市场已经没有时间了 我不会交易这个 But market ran out of time. I'm not trading this.
那么 好吧 我们来谈谈 So al let's talk about
审核结束 the end of the review.
稍等一下 Okay hold on.
所以 昨天 So yesterday
或周四 在这些之前 or Thursday before these
复活节长假是 long Easter holiday is
市场波动了 这是一面牛旗形的移动 向上 向右 the market moved. It was a bull flag moved. Up
有好几条腿在推它 可能是一条 两条 三条 several legs pushed it. Maybe one two and three.
最终 它还是倒下了 And at the end of the day it came down.
大概是33% 没有达到50% Maybe 33%. It did not move 50%.
所以也许只是...... So it was just about maybe...
哦不 它确实动了50% 我在说什么 所以它确实动了 Oh no it did move 50%. What am I saying So it did move.
当时是 33% 后来回落 最后一刻卖出 It was the 33% here and it pulled back and it sold last minute
再一次 它确实达到了 50% 的回调 one more time and it did actually reach the 50% pullback.
但与此同时 它实际上创造了一面熊旗 But in the meantime it actually created a bear flag.
所以有些人会说这是熊旗 So some will say it was the bear flag
最高为 69% 和 75% with the 69% high and the 75% high.
或者是熊旗形 双顶熊旗形和较低的高点 Or it was the bear flag double top bear flag and a lower high.
然后我们今天开业了 And then we ended up opening today
出现非常强劲的下跌 a very strong gap down.
市场跌幅如此之大 The market gaps down this much
往往卖不出去 尤其是如果它在 tends to not sell especially if it's at the
某种交易区间的低点 这是一个很大的交易区间 low of some kind of a trading range. This is a one big trading range.
每个人都期待这里会有一些买家 每个人都期待 Everybody expected some buyers here. Everybody expected
也许有几个买家继续出售 然后又回升 maybe a couple of buyers to continue to sell and then reverse back up.
因为这根本不是一个平均价格 这不是一个 Because it was just not an average price. It was not a
价格合理 值得出售 价格太低了 good fair price to sell. It's too low.
它需要稍微拉回一点 It needed to pull back up a little bit.
但事实并非如此 它实际上落在了第二栏 But it never did. It actually came down bar two
收盘价相当看跌 close pretty bearish underneath this.
因此 现在我们突破了交易区间 So now we have a breakout of a trading range.
有些人会从这里测量 然后把它放在那里 Some will measure from here put it up there
他们会立即寻求一个有节制的动作 and they will look for a measured move there.
或者他们会测量…… Or they will measure...
我量过了 你也可以量一下这个缺口 I measured it. You can also measure this gap
然后就去做了 我测量了 and then go for that. I measured it
这是最后一小节 81 的收盘价 here is the close of last bar 81.
和 And
顺便说一下 这是昨天的开盘 by the way this was yesterday's open.
这就是今天的开盘式 That was today's open.
然后我将其移至第一小节的结尾 And then I moved it to the first bar's close.
这正是我慎重采取的动作 That was my measured move there.
我们得到的远不止这些 We got a lot more than that.
然后我开始研究如果我测量 Then I started looking at what if I measure
第一回合 the first leg
就在那时 第二回合开始了 there and then that was the second leg.
它降价了 我开始寻找买家 It came down and I started looking for buyers.
那么 让我们从K线开始 So let's start with the bar by bar
阅读 reading.
第一个小时出现了强劲抛售 The first hour was a strong sell off.
它变成了一个 所以我们实际上得到了 It turned into one. So we actually get
突破了上周的交易区间 我们打破了 a breakout from last week's trading range. We broke the
我上周在图表上画出的趋势线 trend line that I put on the chart last week.
然后我把所有这些水平都标记了出来 我说 看 我们这里确实有缺口 And then I marked all these levels. I said look we do have a gap here.
如果市场想要测试并弥补这一缺口 If the market wants to test this gap and close it
他们必须先下来 they have to come down and first
测试这些高点 看 我之前在你面前做了标记 test these highs. Look I marked it in front of you when I
上了溪 我说 这个 这个 got on the stream. I said this this
我们需要先测试一下 不过 那里可能会有买家 因为 we need to first test it. However there could be buyers there because
这个缺口相当大 所以我们最终可以找到一些买家 this gap is pretty strong so we could finally get some buyers.
这是周二的最低点 周二 周三 周四…… This was the Tuesday's low. Tuesday Wednesday Thursday...
哦 等一下 那是什么时候 Oh wait when was that
今天是星期四 This was Thursday
星期三 星期二 星期一 Wednesday Tuesday Monday
星期五 星期三 抱歉 那是星期三 Friday Wednesday. That was Wednesday sorry.
不管怎样 我们最终还是下来了 终于被困住了 但看看我们 Anyway so we did come down and finally trap. But look where we
陷阱 那么高 那么高 然后是 trap. That high that high. And then is
缺口体 所以 我们知道这里有强劲的多头 gap body. So we know there are strong bulls here.
但如果多头 空头真的想测试 我说 But if bulls bears really wanted to test I said
我们也可能一路跌到这样的高点 但我们从未这样做过 we could also come all the way down to these highs. We never did.
看看我们刚才跳到哪里了 就在51号公路上 Look where we just bounced. at the 51
28 25 也许只有一个刻度的差异 但我们做到了 28 25 maybe a one tick difference but we did.
所以 这意味着 So that means
多头实际上诱捕了试图卖出的空头 bulls actually trap the bears trying to sell.
因此 第一块金条卖了又卖 So the first bar it sold and sold and sold.
瞧 我们有两个空头条 现在我们有动力了 Look we have two bear bars. Now we have momentum.
还记得我在第三小节说过什么吗 Remember what I said with bar three
我说第三小节还不算太好 结尾强劲 I said bar three is not all that. It is strong close
但收盘价并未跌至 but it did not close all the way down at the low of
两芯线 这是一种势头 bar two wick. It's a momentum
但它在下影线的中点附近关闭 but it closed somewhere in the midpoint of the lower wick
第二小节 不太好 所以 可能是下一首 of bar two. That's not good. So probably the next bar
将会是多头 因为多头开始 is going to be a bull bar. Because bulls started
用第二根棒子去买 然后他们就彻底被困住了 to buy with bar two and then they are totally trapped.
因此 他们会以更低的价格购买以实现收支平衡 So they are going to buy lower to break even.
最终结果是 And it comes down
价格上涨 现在他们又被困住了 空头正在寻找第二个 it goes up now they are trapped again. Bears are looking for a second
腿放下 第一条腿 第一和第二条杠 leg down. Leg one bar one and two
侧身停顿或三小节停顿 pause sideways or three bars.
第三个K线是内K线 它不是多头K线 Fine. Bar three is an inside bar. It is not a bull bar
买入一个高于当前价位的股票 这是一根空头K线 告诉你它想要 to buy one tick above. It is a bear bar telling you it wants to get
继续跟进 但多头开始在价格低两点时买入 follow through. But the bulls started to buy with the bar two low
所以他们被困住了 所以他们必须再次购买才能收支平衡 so they are trapped so they have to buy again to break even.
他们确实这么做了 所以 这是横着往下三格 They did. So that is three bars down sideways
第四栏 然后空头开始再次抛售 所以 这是你的第一个 bar four then the bears start to sell again. So this is your first
旗帜 所以 空头抛售 flag. So the bears selling
第二 空头突破旗形 second the bear breakout from the flag
从多头被困开始 starts with bulls getting trapped
或者被困住 带着四个出局 然后 or trapped out exiting out with four and then
我猜 你会更容易陷入困境 这五个 你可以卖掉这五个 你可以 more getting trapped I guess. The five you can sell the five close you can
低于一个单位卖出 六 卖出 sell one tick below. Six sell.
低于一个点卖出 收盘卖出 Sell one tick below sell the close.
七 嗯 那是第七小节 Seven well that is bar seven.
你知道第七小节发生了什么吗 某种新闻 You know what happens with bar seven some kind of a news.
现在 当然 我们没有 Now granted is we did not have
七点有任何消息 只说领先指标 any news at seven only it said leading indicators.
我不知道那是什么意思 我不在乎 但如果你点击它 它会告诉你它是什么 I don't know what that means I don't care but if you click on it it will tell you what it is.
它实际上是在告诉你 It is actually telling you
但我不太注意 我只是 but I don't really pay attention. It just all I
唯一知道的是 目前还没有安排 最有可能的是 know is that nothing is scheduled. Most likely
机器会认为这是 嘿 it's the machines will think of that as a hey
让我们加快这一动作 让我们获得一些波动 let's expedite this move let's get some volatility
如果是空头 我们就赶紧卖掉 in. If it's bears set up let's sell fast.
现在 七是延续 Now seven was a continuation
卖出 但影线较低 有一些利润 sell but it got a lower wick some profit
被空头吞噬 因为这是第二轮下跌 但随后 taking by bears because it's the second leg down. But then
势头开始 第八小节填补了 momentum comes in. Bar eight fills the lower wick of
第七条 它很浓 所以这意味着 bar seven. It's pretty strong so that means
空头可能正在寻找另一面熊旗形 事实上 probably bears looking for another bear flag. In fact
我们有一个冲动条 一个缺口条 跟进卖出 we have an impulsive bar a gap bar follow through selling.
最有可能的是 第一个牛栏将是 Most likely the first bull bar is going to be
轻微回调 就像 a minor pullback and it's like a one
一名士兵对抗一支军队的排 soldier against the platoon of an army.
你认为这个家伙 K线九 会成功吗 Do you think this guy bar nine is going to succeed of
有什么办法能扭转市场走势吗 恐怕不行 是的 这是一个很好的开局 anything and reverse this market Probably not. Yes it's a nice open
但熊旗就是这样形成的 你想 but that's how the bear flag set up. You want to
看到强劲的多头 然后多头买入 see a strong bull bar and then the bulls buying
被困住了 所以 第九栏 that getting trapped. So bar nine
是一根强劲的多头线 然而 空头 is a strong bull bar. However the bears
去 我不知道 他们有没有去鞠躬 不 这是一个微型双顶 go I don't know did they go one to go bow No this was a micro double top.
所以他们立即开始捕捉这些 So they immediately start to trap these
多头开始抛售 我不喜欢卖出 bulls and start to sell. I don't like to sell
低于保险杠 所以我的止损单 below bull bars so my stop order
永远不会低于第九小节 如果我要 will never be underneath bar nine. If I'm going
出售任何东西 我将以限价单出售 to sell anything I will be selling with a limit order either above
第八K线 第八K线的开场 或者某处 bar eight open of bar eight or somewhere
在保险杠的影线中 上部影线 in the wick of the bull bar upper wick
或更高 比如上面一个刻度 or above like a one tick above
或多头高点 这是强势收盘 or the high of the bull bar. That is strong close.
这就是他们诱捕多头的方法 你想看到一个强大的 That's how they trap the bulls. You want to see a strong
多头收盘 好吧 所以他们在卖出 这是 bull close. Al so they're selling this is
太好了 我可以把止损点设在那里 我会用止损点进场 great. I can put my stop there. I would enter with my stop
第八小节下面有订单 他们把我带入了这个行业 order underneath bar eight. They swept me into the trade.
我正在卖 我不喜欢这 10 低价 不过没关系 I'm selling I don't like the ten low but that's okay
我要再下一笔低于十的卖单 为什么 I'll put another sell order underneath ten. Why
十是冲动型空头指标 很可能是空头 Ten is an impulsive bear bar. It's most likely bears
会尝试在强劲的多头上方卖出 我不知道 will try to sell above strong bull bars. I don't know
这将是第一个保险杠还是第二个保险杠 if it's going to be the first bull bar or the second bull bar.
现在 我们有点延续 Now we have somewhat of a continuation
动量 但同样 它不像动量 momentum but again it's not like the momentum
我们之前有七八个 但这仍然是空头势头 we had with seven and eight. But it is still a bear momentum
所以我们要侧向移动 侧向移动后 so we're going sideways. Sideways after an
冲动的K线可能是我正在寻找的熊旗 impulsive bar could be the bear flag I'm looking
第一批卖家出现在 for. First entry sellers showed up at
第十二条的影线 记住 the upper wick of bar twelve. Remember
如果我要卖东西 那将是十二点 if I'm going to sell anything it will be the high of twelve
12 点的影线 我不会卖低于 12 点的 upper wick of twelve. I'm not going to sell underneath twelve
我宁愿以先前的低点卖出 I'd rather sell at the prior low.
限价单正在入场 止损单正在入场 Limit orders are entering stop orders entered
然后大家都被困住了 为什么会发生这种事 我不知道 and then everybody got trapped. Why did this happen I don't know
我不在乎 我得再卖一次 我不能坐在那里纠结 I don't care. I'm going to have to sell again. I can't sit there and dwell
关于刚才发生的事情 首先 on what just happened there. Well first of all
看看K线 K线十三号 如果你想细细品味 look at the bar. Bar thirteen if you're going to dwell on it
看看K线的开门和关门 K线十三 look at the bar open and closes. Bar thirteen
下面没合上熊身 did not close a bear body below
牛栏 它甚至没有收于 the bull bar. It didn't even close below the
打开保险杠十二 这就是问题所在 open of the bull bar twelve. So that's the problem.
多头正在买入 因为多头需要第二轮上涨 Bulls are buying because bulls need a second leg up.
那么现在 如果多头再次出现 但你还是卖出了 你就被套牢了 你该怎么办 So now if the bulls get the second leg but you sold anyway you're trapped. What are you going to do
好吧 你要去测量 Well you're going to measure.
您可以从这里测量 You can measure from here about
九点 十分 差不多就是你的十分了 nine ten points. Here is your ten point just about.
就在那里 there.
满分十分 Ten points to the tick.
你知道 从你卖K线的地方开始 from the you know where you sold the bar the bar that
你卖出的 这让你进入了一个空头交易 you sold with that entered you into a short trade both with the
限价单和止损单 如果你没有得到你想要的 limit order and the stop order. If you're not getting what you
用那根K线子测量大约五分 十分 need with that bar then you measure about five points ten points
然后卖掉 最有可能的是 and then sell. Most likely you are
至少可以收支平衡 going to get your break even at least.
好吧 我仍然认为 Okay I still think that the
空头可以卖出并获得熊旗 因为 bears can sell and get their bear flag. Because
我们远低于移动平均水平 好吧 我甚至不知道 we are way below the moving average. Okay I don't even know.
你看出来我们看跌了吗 我们也低于 Okay so you see how we're bearish We're also below the
二十条每小时移动平均线 twenty bar hourly moving average.
因此 我们默认已经看跌 我们 So we are already by default we're bearish. We're
从移动平均线向下跳空 我们处于空头通道 gapping down from the moving average. We're in a bear channel.
我预计空头会抛售 但没人愿意低价抛售 I expect bears to sell. But nobody wants to sell low.
左边可能有点什么 哦 是的 这些低点 Probably there's something to the left. Oh yeah these lows.
买家来了 所以我们必须回调 Buyers are here. That's why we had to pull back.
但有一点需要注意 看涨人士认为 But here is something. Bulls look at this as
看 空头试图用第二条腿卖出 这个K线 look bears try to sell with the second leg. This bar
十三实际上是熊的第二回合 thirteen was actually the second leg for bears.
但它困住了空头 因为K线十三 But it trapped the bears. Because bar thirteen
实际上测试了之前的低十 actually tested the prior low ten.
然后大家都被困住了 多头看到了这个牛栏 Then everybody got trapped. Bulls see this bull bar
他们立即买入价格高于 and they immediately buy one tick above
第十四栏 他们根据他们的目标 bar fourteen. They based upon their target
通过测量开放 by measuring the open
一只强壮的熊的实体靠近 但它失败了 被困住了 of a strong bear body close but it failed trapped
熊 他们知道这些熊知道 the bears. They know that these bears know
多头队将争取两胜 他们确实这么做了 that the bulls will go for a two R. They did.
多头的这个形态有问题 Problem with this set up for bulls
是他们把止损点设在这里 他们的设置有问题 is that they put their stop here. Problem with their set up
这是他们要买的K线吗 is that the bar that they're buying
已经突破了 R 和 already breached above the one R and
它试图得到两个 R 但它给你一点点 it's trying to get the two R but it's giving you a tiny little
很小的区域 tiny little area to
卖出 很多人会在收盘价买入 很多人会买入一个基点 sell. So many will buy the close many will buy one tick
以上 如果你不快 above and if you're not fast
如果你没有正确观察或测量 你将会 enough if you're not seeing or measuring correctly you're going to
被困住了 当你被困住时你会怎么做 get trapped. What do you do when you get trapped
其实很简单 你看这个 It's actually very simple. You see this bar
就在这里 听着 我要测量一下 你被困住了 here. Look I'm going to measure it. You trapped
就在那里 你买对了 there. You bought
那里 这是个陷阱 因为我要摆脱它 there. That's a trap because I'm going to get rid of this
测量一分钟 这就是我在这里做标记的原因 measurement for a minute. That's why I'm marking here.
我完全搞错了 抱歉各位 让我来改一下 I'm doing this all wrong. Sorry guys. Let me do it the way.
这就是两个 R This was the two R.
这是您购买的地方 This is where you bought.
你的站就在这儿 你肯定不想你的站被碾过吧 Your stop is here. You do not want your stop to be run over underneath
13. 你完全有权进入这笔交易 即使回报 13. You had every to enter this trade even though the reward
并不是那么好 但你还是努力了 was not all that great. But you went for it
反正 那你怎么办 它涨了 anyway. So what do you do It went up.
它在这里打开了 它上升了 它困住了你 It opened here. It went up. It trapped you
进入交易 你做了一点剥头皮交易 也许你 into the trade. You scalped a little. Maybe you were
坚持两个 R 也许你坚持这个 也许你坚持 holding for two R. Maybe you were holding for this. Maybe you were holding
我不知道 也许你希望市场能回到K线 for this. I don't know. Maybe you hoped that market would get back to the bar
四 然后他们就把你困住了 然后来到这里 four. Then they trap you and came down here.
你打算怎么办 赶紧把它弄走 What are you going to do Get that out of the way.
现在您就进入了那里 Now you entered there.
测量您购买的整个金条 Measure the entire bar that you bought with.
这是确认 查找 It was the confirmation. Find
分别是 50% 和 33% it's 50% and it's 33%.
所以如果你进入这里 So if you entered here
如果这就是33% if that there is the 33%
从 33% 和门槛开始 我买 from 33% and the threshold I buy.
基本上是下三分之一 下三分之一在哪里 The lower third basically. Where is the lower third
我们 这个栏的下三分之一 Let's do this again. Lower third of this bar
就在这里 这就是我的交易方式 is here. This is how I trade.
这是下三分之一 现在我要把它去掉 This is the lower third. Now I'm going to get rid of it.
我会从这三分之一开始买入 我通常 In this lower third I'm going to start buying. I generally
利用 33% 和门槛 utilize the 33% and the threshold.
如果我在这里购买 那么我购买 If I bought here and then I buy
就在那里 所以我测量了它 there. So I measure it.
也许我买了33% 也许我买了 Maybe I bought the 33%. Maybe I bought the
门槛 那么现在 threshold. So now where is
我的盈亏平衡点 就在这里 my break even there.
即使K线关门了 所有在这里买东西的人 Everybody who bought here even though the bar closed
看跌 市场会让你盈亏平衡 你的工作就是 bearish market will give you a break even. It's your job to take
在熊的实体闭合之前 但你必须 it before it closes a bear body. But you have to
快速测量 练习一下 事实上 be quick to measure it. Practice it. In fact
我一直在练习 我跟上节奏 就像这里一样 I practice it all the time. I go in time like here.
我们再来一个 我会很快完成 看这里 Let's do another one. I'm going to do this very quickly. Look here.
我们有一个 空头仍在抛售 突然间 We had one. Bears were still selling and suddenly this
K线发生了 我真的很喜欢这个 这就像初始风险 bar happens. I really like this. This is like initial risk
与实际风险相比 我愿意承担这个风险 versus actual risk. I'm going to take that.
那是一头强壮的熊身 That was a strong bear body
收盘价 相当高的收盘价 收盘价低于其 close. Decent amount of close. Close below its
中点 对我来说 这是一个不错的空头形态 但它正在被打破 midpoint. To me this is a decent bear body. But it's getting violated
和第 15 栏一起 每个人 with bar 15. Everybody
以高于 15 的价格入场 以 15 的价格收盘 这就是他们的目标 entered one tick above 15 the close of 15 and this was their target.
如果人们还在等待更多 那么他们就会陷入困境 Everybody got trapped if they were still holding for more.
所以现在 您的购买区域 So now your buy area
是...你看 你就在那里买的 is... look you bought there.
你寄予厚望 市场给了你机会吗 是的 You had high hopes. Did market give you a scalp Yes.
但后来它却攻击你了 别再管它了 But then it turned on you. Put it aside.
现在你测量了那个条 我一直都是这么做的 Now you measured that bar. I do this all the time.
这是下三分之一 太棒了 This is the lower third. Fantastic!
我要在这里下买单 我要在那里下买单 I'm going to put a buy order here. I'm going to put a buy order there.
我要等市场下跌 然后我 I'm going to wait for market to come down and get me
盈亏平衡 我的盈亏平衡点在哪里 如果我进入 a break even. Where would be my break even If I entered
我说我上次买的 here say I bought it last time
我的盈亏平衡就在这里 my break even is here.
现在让我摆脱它 Let me get rid of that now.
如果我进入这里 我的盈亏平衡就在这里 If I enter here my break even is here.
它甚至只是激活我的 Did it even come down to just activate my
随着回调而扩大买入规模并实现盈亏平衡 scale in buy with the pull back and break even
没有 它自己就修好了 No! It just fixed itself.
它下降到 50% 并且多头进入 It came down to the 50% and the bulls entered.
那么这意味着什么呢 市场实际上是看涨的 事实恰恰相反 So what does that mean Market is actually bullish. It's about the reverse.
它告诉我 你不需要再增加风险了 无论如何 我都会修复它 It's telling me you don't need to add to your risk. I'm going to fix it anyway.
所以现在您应该持有 2R So now you should be holding for 2R.
现在您正在进行波段交易 Now you're swing trading.
现在你的目标就是这个 Now your target is that.
就是这样 这就是你的 2R 也就是你的 3R And that. So that's your 2R that's your 3R.
你看到市场正在自我修复 取消那些订单 You see that the market is fixing itself. Cancel those orders.
然后市场买入 你在这里进行剥头皮交易 And then market buy. You're going to scalp here
你可以留下一名跑垒员去3R 或者干脆一起去 就完事了 and you can leave a runner for 3R. Or scalp all together and be done
用你的交易 你会把它留在谈判桌上 但谁在乎呢 with your trade. You'd be leaving this on the table but who cares
这是一个类似的 Here's a similar one.
最后多头实体和空头实体均关闭 The last bull body and the bears closed.
所以我从那里开始测量 这就是我的 1R 2R 3R So I measure from there. That's my 1R 2R 3R.
然后它又反转了 And then it reversed back up.
所以你明白了 如果它要掉下来 So there you have it. If it were to come down
并困住了你 也许你正在坚持 and trapped you that you were maybe holding into
2R 把你困住了 你该怎么办 也许你一直坚持 2R and it trapped you. What are you going to do Maybe you were holding into
3R 对不起 1 2 3 4R 它把你困住了 3R I'm sorry 1 2 3 4R and it trapped you.
你测量一下你卖掉的那根金条 You measure that bar that you sold.
寻找 Find
上三分之一和 the upper third and
在该区域放置几个卖单 然后当你 lace that area with a couple of sell orders. And then as you
卖 看 它给你 也许你卖出了止损 sell look it's giving you maybe you sold with a stop
就在那里订购 它给你 order there. It's giving you
盈亏平衡点 breakeven plus.
你掌握了这个 这就会变成一场游戏 You master this this is going to become a game.
你会觉得 我可以交易任何东西 即使在这里 You'll be like I could trade anything. Even here look
是的 这是一天的结束 但设置是 is yes it's the end of the day but set up is the
相同 多头队关闭了上方的牛栏 same. Bulls closed the bull bar above
强壮的熊身 从那里测量 在那里停止 a strong bear body. Measure from there stop there
这就是你的 1R 也许你还在持有 2R 然后就发生了这种情况 that's your 1R. Maybe you're still holding into 2R and this happened.
你打算做什么 嗯 这是我进来的K线 What are you going to do Well this is the bar I entered with
是 我可以以 50% 的价格购买 我 is I could buy at the 50% I
可以买下三分之一 哦 看 could buy at the lower third. Oh look
它下降到 50% 从未激活 它没有深入 it came down to 50% never activated. It didn't go deep
深入到下三分之一 这样你就可以取消所有订单 dive into the lower third. So you can cancel all those orders
它自己就修复了 所以现在 and it fixed itself. So now that is
顺便说一句 这不是目标 你对 2R 的测量 not the target by the way. Your measurement for 2R
是从这里来的 所以现在你可以买这些K线 is from here. So now you're going you can buy these bars
把你的头皮带到那里 恭喜你 and take your scalp there. Congratulations
你成功了 好吧 我们回去吧 抱歉 我拖延了 you made it. Al let's go back to it. I'm sorry I dragged this
到处都是 好了 现在你明白他们是如何收支平衡的了 all over the place. Al so now you understand how they break even.
这不是巧合 这 This is not a coincidence this
是市场给予这些多头的方式 is market's way of giving these bulls
谁在这里买了一个平均休息甚至在到来之前 who bought here an average break even before it comes
复仇而下 down with vengeance.
那么现在我的 So now where's my
下一个安排 好吧 我来晚了 也许你正在开会 所以才下来 next set up Okay I'm too late maybe you were in a meeting you came down
你会想 哦不 市场不用我卖也能卖 我该怎么卖呢 and you're like oh no market is selling without me. How do I sell this
这是双顶 光秃秃的平顶 现在 That's a double top bare flat. Now
你已经进入这里了 他们正在出售 现在 你想卖给 you already entered here they're selling. Now would you sell with
第15条 我对第15条的问题很严重 bar 15 My problem with bar 15 is great
K线 它困住了空头 但并没有真正 bar it trapped the bears but it didn't really
关闭低于14的裸露实体 close a bare body below the open of 14
也不低于 14 我不知道 这是一个 nor below the 14. I don't know this is a
上涨的潜力 好吧 因为最有可能的是 potential of going up okay because most likely the
多头被困住了 所以这些多头会买入 他们必须 bulls are trapped so those bulls will buy and they're going to have to
达到盈亏平衡 所以在价格低于一个价位时卖出这根金条 get their break even. So selling this bar at the close of one tick under
可能对我没什么好处 因为它可能 may not do me good because it could
实际上是上升的 就像上部影线所做的那样 actually go up exactly what it did with that upper wick.
但是 如果你等待确认 好吧 But if you wait for a confirmation okay
如果您等待确认 第 16 条就是您的确认 if you wait for a confirmation bar 16 is your confirmation.
你要做什么 我要测量 What do you do I'm going to measure
这里 一根非常坚固的保险杠被 here. A very strong bull bar is getting violated with
第 16 条 而不是第 15 条 第 15 条未能闭合裸露的实体 bar 16 not with bar 15. Bar 15 failed to close a bare body
低于14开盘价 这意味着你的股票 below the 14 open. So that means your stock goes
高于 15 我正在测量我的 1R 目标 above 15 I'm measuring my 1R target.
现在我得到了确认 我可以卖出收盘价 卖出一个价位以下的价位 Now I have a confirmation I can sell the close sell one tick lower
或者在回调时卖出 但我从第 16 条线入场 or sell the pullback but I'm entering with bar 16
马克给了我半个 R 马克给了我 1R 就这样 and Mark gives me half R Mark gives me 1R it goes
稍微向侧面和向上移动 然后它们会合上裸露的实体 sideways and up a little bit but then they close the bare body
这是我的运行者运行的地方 它在哪里 this is where my runner runs. Where does it
运行 我只关心“2R” 我不在乎“3R” 我想要 run I'm all about 2Rs. I don't care about the 3Rs I want
拿到了2R 我拿到了 to get that 2R. And I got that. And it
实际上是横向移动 然后关闭了另一根横K线 很有可能 actually goes sideways and that closes another bar. Chances are
它正试图到达 3R 3R 很棒 it's trying to get to the 3R. 3R is nice
但到那时 你的站 好吧 可能是 to have but by then your stop okay could be
我不知道 在这上面的某个地方 在这上面的某个地方 I don't know somewhere up here somewhere above here
也许 我不知道 我会把它移到这里吗 maybe I don't know would I move it here
如果我看到这种情况发生 我可能会 If I see this is happening I would probably
在价格上涨之前以 2R 的价格出售 实现收支平衡 sell at the 2R to break even before this goes
起来 那是因为两者都有一个形态 这就是为什么 up. That's because there was a setup for both. This is why
这些都是2R交易 我总是试图 these are 2R trades. I always try to get
2R 或者如果我无法获得 2R 我必须修复它 the 2Rs or if I cannot get the 2R I have to fix it
然后去2R 就这样 任何时候它都会给我更多 and then go to the 2R that's it. Anytime it gives me more
比2R更便宜 我持怀疑态度 我不知道我是否会买3R 因为 than 2R I'm skeptical. I don't know if I'm going to get the 3R because
这里可能有一个多头的设置 而且这个形态是正确的 there might be a setup for bulls here. And that setup was
这里 多头队关闭了 here. Bulls closed is one
就在那里 测量 去实际 there measure go to the actual
风险 初始风险与实际风险 研究这些 risk initial risk versus actual risk study those
在研究了这一点之后 我构建了 and then after studying that I constructed
这篇文章 我不在乎 我只在乎 this entry. I don't care all I care
是对裸体的侵犯 is that violation of bare bodies
多头收盘强劲 好吧 他们做到了 所以我可以买入 但是 with bull closes strong. Well they did it so I can buy but
第 31 节唯一的问题是它实际上达到了 the only problem with bar 31 is it actually reached the
1R 然后收盘于其上方 所以如果我进入该区域 我想 1R and then closed above it. So if I enter it I want to
进入更接近 1R 的位置 因为我已经确认它可能是 enter closer to the 1R since I have confirmation saying that it's probably
去2R 所以我有足够的空间 going to get to the 2R. So there's plenty of room for me to make
钱 我怎么买 如果我买一单 money. How can I buy If I buy one tick
上面 空间不大 如果我买入平仓 那就太好了 above there's not much room. If I buy to close great.
如果我买入回调至 1R 因为 31 号线收盘 If I buy to pull back at the 1R since the bar 31 closed
这是一个确认 它希望获得更高的卢比奖励 that's a confirmation it wants to go higher to the more Rs rewards.
所以我会买它 我会在这里剥头皮 然后我会 So I'll buy it I'll scalp here and I'll
留下一名跑者 所以从技术上讲 我们没有关闭那里的任何东西 leave a runner. So technically we did not close anything there
然后它就掉下来了 这里面有什么陷阱吗 and it came down. Is there a set up here
有个问题 各位观众 Here's a question. Those of you watching
在 Discord 上告诉我 on Discord tell me
这里有一个裸露的设置吗 is there a bare set up here By
只是看看这些 不用担心它会涨​​ just looking at these. Don't worry about this going up.
这里有一个裸露的设置吗 Is there a bare set up here
我正在看 Discord 窗口 I'm looking at the Discord window
没有人入场任何东西 阅读 and no one's typing anything. Okay read the
胶带上写着 这里只是个空架子 不 别想着拍卖了 tape says. There is a bare set up here. No forget about the auction.
我们不是在谈论拍卖 而是在谈论 We're not talking about the auctions we're talking about the
买卖 buy and sell
具有 2R 目标 with 2R targets.
不 我不是在谈论 No I'm not talking about the
其他K线之类的 这里有一个形态吗 就像我测量的那样 other bars or anything. Is there a set up here just like the way that I'm measuring
空头 空头可以低于卖出吗 for bears Can bears sell below
空头能赚钱吗 bear bars and make money
为什么是金场 Why gold yard
不 金场回答正确 但我想知道 No gold yard answered it correctly but I want to know.
已经三根烤肉棒了 不不不不不不不 Already three barbobars. No no no no no. Okay.
伙计们 如果这是空头K线 Guys if this is a bear bar
其他人都说这里可能已经关闭了 and everybody else said maybe it closed down here
这是一个非常强劲的空头实体 突然间多头在其上方收盘 it's a very strong bear body and suddenly bulls closed above it.
谁会赢 谁会掌控全局 多头队 Who wins this Who's in charge Bulls.
然后你测量 1R 和 2R So then you measure for 1R and 2R.
您可以在收盘价买入 也可以在回调时买入 预期 2R You can buy that close you can buy the pullback expect 2R.
空头结束了吗 Did the bears close
低于该条最低点的是空头主体吗 below the low of that bar a bear body
你看到熊的实体了吗 Do you see a bear body
没有 什么都没关闭 34 失败了 No. Nothing closed. 34 failed.
34 所做的就是关闭熊的实体 What 34 did was to close a bear body
低于这个数 below that.
压力仍然存在 但他们无法通过空头来消除低点 There is still a pressure but they could not take out the low with a bear
结束 这就是为什么实体的结束比 close. That's why the body closes are more important than the
影线 wicks. Okay
那么这意味着什么 So what does that mean
这意味着如果我卖出收盘价 他们可能会违反这一规定 It means if I sell the close they could violate this.
他们实际上可能会使卖出无效 或者我可能会得到第二个 They could actually invalidate the sell or I would get maybe a second
放手了 但你仍然可以测量 所以答案实际上是肯定的 也是否定的 let go but you can still measure. So the answer is actually yes and no.
现在我会选择拒绝 我可能不会接受出售 Now I would go for a no I probably would not take the sell
但如果我快速测量 but if I measure quickly
因为第 34 条仍然关闭了空头主体 because bar 34 still closed the bear body
低于保险杠开口 违反 below the open of the bull bar violating
此次 空头将以 1R 为目标 this bears are going for a 1R.
他们就只能得到这些了 Okay. That's all they are going to get.
那么您认为以 34 的收盘价卖出有利可图吗 So do you think selling the close of 34 is lucrative
没有 因为 34 没有关闭 No. Because 34 did not close a
熊身一路非常强势 它没有侵犯多头 very strong bear body all the way. It did not violate the bull.
所以它得到了第二条腿 所以如果你要卖的话 So it got the second leg. So if you were to sell
你得到了第二条腿 但什么也没有 you get the second leg down but nothing
收盘价低于1R 获得2R 所以这不是一个好 closing below the 1R to get the 2R. So this is not a good
卖 那现在怎么办 那是因为 sell. So what now That's because
多头在这里做多 bulls are long here.
它们在涨价 我甚至没有更多的卢比了 They're going up. I don't even have more Rs.
我的卢比一下子用完了 或者这里还有一张 I ran out of Rs there. Or here's another one.
第二次空头抛售 他们无法获得超过 1R 的收益 Second time bear sell and they can't get no more than 1R
多头违反了规定 哦 太好了 我现在就去测量 is bulls violating. Oh great. I'm going to measure now.
哦 你看 如果我买 Oh look. If I buy
这么近 1R 接下来是 that close 1R. It's coming down to
半个R 也许我可以再买 哦 看 他们把保险杠关了 the half R. Okay. Maybe I can buy again. Oh look. They close the bull bar.
他们肯定会得到 2R 看看这个 They're definitely getting the 2R. Look at that.
哦 看 又一个形态 Oh look. Another setup.
多头行情 多头在2R处获利了结 接下来 Bull bar. Bulls are taking profit at the 2R. Here comes
我要为熊测量一下 bar 40. I'm going to measure it for bears.
就在那里 从收盘价来看 而不是从影线来看 这就是区别 there. From the close not the wicks. That's the difference.
你可以使用影线 但你会发现 You can use the wicks but you'll find out and discover very
这不是衡量的方法 因为你永远不会标记 quickly that's not the way to measure because you're never going to tag
卢比 好了 我们开始吧 就是这样 the Rs. Al here we go. So there you go.
瞧 他们已经拿到了 1R Look. They already got the 1R.
这已经是确认了 也许我正在入场 Al . It's already a confirmation. Maybe I'm entering
晚了吧 这是40%到60%的入场率 late This is 40% entry to 60% entry.
我应该买 2R 甚至 3R 2R 将会 I should be getting the 2R maybe even 3R. 2R is going to be
在银行 所以如果我卖出低于或收盘价 in the bank. So if I sell below or the close
或者甚至回调至 1R 我应该 or maybe even the pullback to 1R I should be
能够拿到2R 我拿到了 他们做得过分了 突破了 able to get the 2R. I got it. They overreached it overbreached
它 超越它 不管你怎么称呼它 所以你的下一个目标 it overshot it whatever you call it. So your next target
就在那里 如果你卖得太晚 is there. If you sell underneath too late there's
没有空间 它可能会走 但是 no room. It might go but
它可能需要回撤 所以这不是什么好事 但随后它就关闭了 it might need to pull back so it's not a good thing. But then it close.
好吧 也许它会降到这里 现在我没有其他的R Okay so maybe it's going to come down here. Now I don't have all the other Rs
但你可以拥有更多 but you can have more.
那就开始吧 1 2 3 4 So here we go. 1 2 3 4
5 6 7R 后弹跳 5 6 7R before bouncing.
而且它还在持续下降 现在你可以利用这些了 And it kept going down. Now you can utilize these.
你如何利用这些 你如何寻找一个形态 How do you utilize these How do you look for a setup
这里 here
你在这里如何寻找一个形态 也许你错过了这个动作 然后这是 How do you look for a setup here Maybe you missed this move. And then this is
正在发生 最强的牛身在哪里 这不是 happening. Where's the strongest bull body This ain't it
但这是 所以用它作为止损点 从 but this is. So use that as a stop. Measure from
好了 让我们看看我们得到了什么 there. Let's see what we got.
确认在第 52 条 您进入得太晚了 Confirmation is with bar 52. You're entering too late.
好吗 现在你该怎么办 你进来太晚了 Okay Now what do you do You're entering too late.
他们降到了一半 R 并且 They came down to half R and
反弹 然后卖出 如果你在这里进场 a bounce and then sold. If you enter here
如果你在回调时进入 你仍然可以赚钱 if you enter with the pullback you still make money.
但一旦我看到 54 条未能收于 1R 以下 But once I see this bar 54 fails to close below the 1R
我不知道 我确实想买2R 一直都想 我想买2R I don't know. I do want to get the 2R. Always. I want to get the 2R.
总是这样 但我不开心 Always. But I'm not hapPOI.
我不太高兴 I'm not very hapPOI.
一旦栏K线开始关闭 我该如何退出 Once the bars start to close how do I exit out of this
我该如何解决这个问题 How do I fix it Anybody who
这里有卖 也许是这家K线 所以他们会尝试 sold here Maybe this bar. So they're going to try to
再次在上三分之一处卖出 所以如果你是看跌者 sell again at the upper third. So if you are a bear
您以低于 52 的价格卖出 you sold underneath 52.
你把上面的三分之一卖了 把这个处理掉 You sell the upper third. Get rid of this.
你卖掉上面的三分之一 You sell the upper third.
我的卖单是基于这 33% I based my sell orders. That 33%
门槛大概是 50% 但是 the threshold maybe 50% but
我要卖掉那个区域 所以现在我卖掉了52 that area I'm going to sell. So now I sold the 52
收盘价 52低点 close 52 low
从那里到那里 from there to there.
现在我摆脱了它 Now I get rid of that.
所以我在那里卖 我先在这里卖 So I sold there. First I sold here.
我又卖了 你看 市场给了我 And I sold again. Look. Market gave me
盈亏平衡 甚至盈亏平衡以上 break even. And even break even plus.
但空头无法收于该阈值以下 But bears are not able to close below that threshold.
他们不会为了 2R 而进一步降价 甚至 1R 也不行 They're not going to come down more for 2R. Or even 1R.
不管那个1R或2R是什么 但就在那里 Whatever that 1R or 2R was. But that there
告诉我要休息一下 滚出去 is telling me take the break even. Get out.
因为这个价格将会上涨 Because this is going to go up.
保险杠 停在这儿 Bull bar. Stop here.
多头开始收盘 好吧 这只牛实际上已经收盘了 但是 Bull start to close. Okay this one actually closed there but
我对此不太满意 但如果你买了 那就是你的1R 那是你的 I'm not really hapPOI with that. But if you do buy that's your 1R that's your
2R 这就是你的3R 明白了吗 你也可以说 2R that's your 3R. Okay You can also say
我要测量这两个K线 然后说我要采取不同的 I'm going to measure these 2 bars and say I'm going to go different
路线 它行不通 它行不通 route. It won't work. It won't work.
不要那样做 总是 Don't do that. Always
那只熊靠近 无论哪只熊 that bear close and whichever the bear
他们违反了良好的收盘规则 所以如果你购买 bar that they're violating with good closes. So if you buy the
收盘价或高于第 58 条线一个刻度 close or one tick above bar 58
或者在 R 一半处回调时买入 or buy with the pullback at the half R.
好吗 你的目标是2R Okay You're targeting 2R.
如果收盘价高于 2R 那就太好了 你的跑者是 If it closes above 2R that's great. Your runner is
这里又有一个运行者 所以基本上是这样的 you have an additional runner running in here. So basically this
成为你的 1R 然后那成为你的 2R 因为你进入得太晚了 becomes your 1R and that becomes your 2R. Because you enter too late.
但没关系 你赚钱了 But it doesn't matter. You make money.
它会起作用的 你会赚钱的 It will work. You will make money.
我不想说我向你保证 我不能向你保证任何事情 I don't want to say I guarantee you. I cannot guarantee you anything
因为我不知道你是怎么交易的 我教你我所有的…… because I don't know how you're trading. I'm teaching you all I...
你可能什么都不懂 然后你进行交易 you may not understand any of it and then you take trades
用真实的资金而不是练习 with real funds rather than practicing.
以此进行 100 笔交易 Take 100 trades with that.
进行 100 笔交易 如果你的盈利超过 60% Take 100 trades and if you're making more than 60 percent
成功 那么它就可以工作了 successful then it's working.
它正在发挥作用 它会起作用 但如果你正在做交易 It's working. It's going to work. But if you're taking trades
而你不是百分之百确定如何进行这些交易 在哪里获利 如何修复它 and you're not 100 percent sure how to take those trades where to take profit how to fix it
而你只占不到40% and you're only less than 40 percent
成功了 那就有问题了 你不明白 successful then there's something wrong. You didn't understand
或者您尚未准备好接受此设置 or you're not ready yet to take this setup.
但一旦你明白了 你就明白了 But once you get it you understand.
这动作很谨慎 这是一只双腿的 There was a measured move here. This was a two legged
上涨 市场下跌 那是 move up. Market came down. That was
有节奏的动作 然后又 the measured move. And then again
看 空头结束了 它正在下跌 但随后又反转上涨 look bears closed. It's coming down but then it reverses back up.
他们再次抛售 退出 多头赚钱 They sell again. They exit and the bulls make money.
但这是一个交易区间 所以我们知道 But it is a trading range here. So we know
市场一 二 三推低 market made one two and three push down.
所以这是一个楔形底部 我一直说 伙计们 我看到了一个楔形底部 So there's a wedge bottom and I kept saying you guys I'm seeing a wedge bottom
我们已经得到了一个微小的较高低点 and we're already getting a micro higher low.
微高低意味着我们正在陷入困境 Micro higher low means we are trapping
空头仍在试图抛售 如果他们抛售 the bears still trying to sell. If they're selling
这是为什么 这里面肯定有陷阱 你看 why is that Well there was a setup here. Look
空头实体收盘价远低于开盘价和最低价 bear body closed way below the open and the low.
即便如此 这也只是一个陷阱 Even this is a setup.
你可以把止损放在那里 卖出 这是一门艺术 他们无法得到 You can put your stop there sell that's a one art. They couldn't get
到了双艺术 结果却反过来了 你觉得熊会怎么做 to the two art and it reversed. What do you think the bears are going to do
如果他们以 54 的价格卖出 则卖出一个 If they sold a close of 54 sold one
他们被困住了 他们该怎么办 tick under and they're trapped what are they going to do
这是他们的安排 尽管 This was their setup. Even though it's
在趋势结束时 但他们还是接受了它 因为它有效 at the end of the trend but they took it anyway because it works.
他们要干什么 这是K线 What are they going to do This is the bar
他们卖了54 他们要测量K线 that they sold 54. They're going to measure bar
54 整个区间 然后他们将 54 entire range and then they're going to
从 33% 开始在上三分之一处放置卖单 put sell orders on the upper third starting from 33%
达到门槛 甚至可能更高 或者他们打算卖掉它 to threshold maybe even high. Or they're going to sell it
到 50% 目标是让价格回到 to 50%. The goal is to bring the price back down to the
54 低或平均盈亏平衡 54 low or average break even.
把这个弄明白 所以你卖的时候可能是 Get that out of the way. So you sold maybe at the low of
54. 你再次出售 也许你进入了 54. You sell again maybe you entered
两个地方 33% 或 two places 33% or the
阈值 所以它并没有真正标记阈值 threshold. So it didn't really tag the threshold
但它标记了这个 but it tagged this one.
所以这意味着我要解决这个问题 So that means I'm going to get that out of the way
这是你的盈亏平衡点 但这个实际上是 this is your break even. But this one actually came
一路下跌 最后收盘上涨 所以下面的所有人 all the way down before closing high. So everybody underneath
54 有几次退出的机会 54 got a chance to exit several times.
现在多头正在关闭多头栏 Now bulls are closing bull bars
空头正在退出 因为他们似乎无法再下跌 bears are exiting because they can't seem to come down more.
又一个陷阱 保险杠关闭 高一 高二 Another trap there bull bar closed high one high two
楔形底部 微幅上涨 它可能会回来 wedge bottom micro higher low. It probably is going to come back
因为我们又出现了一个缺口条 这是空头缺口 again because we have a gap bar. It's bear gap
实体与移动平均线重合 而且我们没有任何多头缺口线 body to the moving average. And we don't have any bull gap bars.
一路走来 是的 我们什么都没有 All the way yeah we don't have anything.
我们什么都没有 这意味着空头可能下跌 下跌的可能性更大 We have nothing. So that means bears probably it's a higher probability to come down
并测试 55 的收盘价或低点 and test the 55 close or low
而不是立即上涨 所以在市场上涨之后 than going up away. So after market gets up
两条腿站起来 是因为 有某种 我可以吗 two legs up is it because is there some kind can I
买这个 怎么量 buy this How do I measure it Okay is
这里有一根强劲的熊身 现在 这就是我要买的金条吗 there's a strong bear body here. Now is this the bar I buy
你可以测量它 但是 You can measure it but did the
多头真的会收盘吗 不 是的 它们确实收盘了 bulls actually close No oh yeah they did.
它们只关闭了上面 They only closed above
这个半强势空头的开口 the open of this semi strong bear body
它们的收盘价并未略低于中点 they didn't close slightly below its midpoint.
但因为他们无法在这些价格之上收盘 But because they couldn't close above these
实体高于55高点 a body above the 55 high
它可能会先继续下降 然后再上升 it probably is going to keep coming down before going up.
但如果你确实在第 57 条线上方或收盘价买入 But if you do buy one tick above or the close of bar 57
这就是是或否的设置 this is that yes or no setup.
不是 因为它没有在 It's no because it didn't close a bull body above the
55高 是的 因为它封闭了实体 55 high it's yes because it closed the body
所以没关系 我可以下单买入 但要比 so it's okay. I could put a buy order one tick above
57 我仍然有足够的空间 57 I would still have plenty of space
去 1R 好吧 所以你不想买这个 to go to 1R. Okay so you don't want to buy this
你不太确定 它不符合你的标准 没关系 you're not so sure it doesn't fit your criteria that's fine.
然后等个K线 绝对闭身 Then wait for a bar absolutely closes a body
高于空头实体 即 55 above that bear body which is 55.
那个实体是第 58 条 That body is bar 58.
现在 测量是相同的 但现在你必须入场 Now measurement is the same but you now have to enter
太晚了 因为多头已经达到了他们的 1R too late because bulls already reached their 1R
而且他们无法关闭1R以上的车身 这样不是更好吗 and they couldn't close the body above the 1R. So wouldn't that be better
如果你实际上在 R 的一半位置下了一个买单 if you actually put a buy order at the half R
然后在回调时买入 然后在那里放另一个K线图 and buy with a pullback and then put another bar there
买入订单 随着价格上涨 现在你有两个入场位 buy order there as it goes up now you have two entries
你可以在那里进行剥头皮交易 但因为你要进入 you can scalp there but because you're going into
2R 如果你从未测试过 2R 就变成了 1R 2R and you never tested 2R becomes your 1R
3R 变成了你的 2R 市场给了你 2R 吗 3R becomes your 2R. Did the market give you a 2R
即使迟到也行 是的 even entering late Yes.
所以 就在那里 So that's there.
谁拿到了 哦 他们拿到了2R 然后你拿到了 Who's got it Oh they got the 2R and then you got
空头K线 天哪 我卖不掉 the bear bar. My gosh well I cannot sell
6比2 我什么都不知道 6比2的实体没有关闭 6 to 2 I don't know anything. 6 to 2 body did not close
低于 61 开盘 below 61 open.
它也没有收于下方 所以我不知道 我不能卖任何东西 我所知道的是 这可能会 It also did not close below so I don't know I can't sell anything all I know this can go
到这里 然后发生了这样的事 我想 好吧 这很好 up to here. Then this happens I'm like okay this is nice
我喜欢这个 我要测量一下 看看能进到哪里 I like this one. I'm going to measure it and see where I can actually enter.
我怎么带着这个进去 嗯 它掉下来了 How do I enter with this Well it came down
一直到一半 R 但仍然有一点 all the way to half R anyway but there's still a little bit
房间 也许我可以在那里下卖单 我可以卖 of room. Maybe I can put a sell order there. I can sell
收盘时 我就要卖出 我要在这里进行剥头皮交易 the close I'm just going to sell. I'm going to scalp here.
太棒了 64号K线可能会让我不高兴 但是 Great. Bar 64 would upset me but
那么65就会下降 我 then 65 is coming down. I am
坚持下去 因为从技术上讲这是我的 1R holding for this okay because this is technically my 1R.
虽然这是 1R 但这是我的技术 1R Although this is 1R but this would be my technically 1R
因为我来晚了 现在怎么办 because I'm entering late. Now what
现在发生什么事了 Now what's happening
嗯 我可能在下面入场了 Well I entered maybe at the below
所以现在我被困住了 这个K线上涨了 多头见 so now I'm trapped. This bar goes up. Bulls see
这为 1R 2R 做好了准备 但熊 this set up for 1R 2R. But the bears
需要退出 任何进入 need to exit. Anybody entered
在下面打勾 是 one tick below there okay is
他们看到多头突然反转 好吧 they see bulls suddenly reversing okay.
他们想要收支平衡 这就是 They want a break even. And this is
他们卖的K线 奥尼尔 这是怎么回事 the bar they sold. What's the drill O'Neill
这不押韵 你测量你卖的金条 That doesn't rhyme. You measure the bar that you sold
在下面 你会发现你的上部 under you find your upper
第三 然后 third and then
重新测量 假设你在门槛处卖了 re measure say you sold there at the threshold
最新的 摆脱 the latest Get rid of
所有这些都是为了让你明白到底发生了什么 all of this so you can see what the heck is going on.
市场上涨前的盈亏平衡点在哪里 在那里 Where is your break even before market goes up There.
但你明白了吗 这就是问题所在 But did you get it though That's the question.
这个上升了 This one went up.
你已经测量过了 你设定了一个限制 You measured it already. You put a limit
在那里订购 卖了 order there. Sold
它正在出售 然后它在这里关闭 okay it was selling then it closed here.
所以它实际上激活了你 这很好 但它从来没有 So it actually activated you. That's great. But it never
标记在这里 然后这家K线开业了 tagged here. Then this bar opened.
你汗流浃背 你心想 我在这里卖了 我得到这里才能收支平衡 You're sweating. You're like I sold here I need to get to here to break even
平均水平 即使它不属于我的入场位 average even if it doesn't come down to my entry.
我需要测试一下 但是那里的K线还没关门 I need to test this. But the bar didn't close there.
也不在一个勾号以下 但是你入场了 Not under one tick either. But you entered
就在那里 你卖掉了它 你卖掉的这块金条的上三分之一 there you sold it upper third of this bar that you sold under.
已进入交易 主体在此关闭 Entered into the trade body closed here.
因为它必须先上升 Because it has to go first up.
不 等等 这很公平 那是在哪里开的 不 是在这里开的 No wait that's fair. Where did that No it opened here.
抱歉 它在这里打开 下来 上升 激活 Sorry it opened here came down went up activated
你 然后下来并关闭这里 你还在流汗 你没有得到你的 you then came down and closed here. You're still sweating you're not getting your
收支平衡 这家K线就在这里开门 break even. This bar opens here.
下来 甚至低于 Comes down. Even below
即使是平均水平的突破 也会给你带来一些好处 the break even average breaking gives you a couple of ticks
真正赚钱 然后上涨并收盘 to actually make money. Then goes up and closes
就在那里 甚至可能先上去 然后 there. Maybe even goes up first and comes
下来 无论它做了什么 它实际上都给了你所需要的 down. Whatever it did it actually gave you what you needed.
完成了 退出 退出 完成 You're done. Exit. Exit out be done.
现在多头 Now bulls are
赚钱 这就是他们的止损点 这就是他们的衡量标准 making money. That's their stop. This is how they measure.
这根K线子侵犯了非常强健的裸体 This bar violated a very strong bare body.
想去1R 想去2R 我不知道 也许吧 Wants to go to 1R wants to go to 2R. I don't know maybe
你得到了 3R 和 4R 哦 是的 you get the 3R and 4R. Oh yeah.
它持续上涨 It keeps going up.
那是 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 That's 1 2 3 4 5 6 7.
这是第 7 次运行 This is a 7 time run.
这很好 但你看看结果如何 This is very nice. But you see how that worked out.
您将如何进入此设置 How would you enter with this setup
你出来 68美元保释金 但它会给你 You exit out 68 bail. But it's going to give you
收支平衡 只是你必须快速衡量并提前知道 break even. It's just you have to measure it quickly and know ahead of time
你需要再次卖出才能退出 现在多头 where you need to sell again to exit. Now the bulls took
结束 多头想要赚钱 你买入 over. Bulls want to make money. You buy to
收盘价 你买入价格高于一个价位 也许你买入价格是 close. You buy one tick above. Maybe you buy at the
多远 它让你有机会 how far. It gives you a chance to get
到1R 他们就关闭了 现在他们要去2R 这是一个相当强大的 to 1R and they close it. Now they are going to 2R. It's a pretty strong
获利回吐 但如果有人仍然持有 profit taking. But if anybody is still holding
他们被困在这里等待他们的跑者 他们期待着价格 and they are stuck up here for their runner they were expecting price
为了继续前进 他们将购买以拉回奖励 to keep going they are going to buy to pull back to the reward.
他们买入以拉回奖励 然后他们得到一根关闭的棒 They buy to pull back to the reward and then they get a bar close.
现在他们买入的价格比该价格高出一格 Now they buy one tick above that bar
73 然后他们就达到了那个目标 他们就达到了那个目标 我的意思是 任何超过 73 and then they get that target and they get that target. I mean anything more than
那你基本上就很幸运了 that is just you're basically lucky you.
好吗 所以一切都先放一边 Okay So everything aside
我们有一个楔形底部 30 is we have a wedge bottom 30
46 和55 现在我说 46 and 55. Now I said
我们需要一个重大的趋势反转 我们需要一个更高的低点 we need a major trend reversal. We need a higher low.
我们有一个更高的低点 接下来会如何发展 我们有一个交易区间 我们必须收盘 We got a higher low. Where is this going to go We have a trading range. We are going to have to close
这些缺口 就是这样 你不需要做所有这些 these gaps. And there it is. You don't need to do all of those
像我这样测量的测量方式是从那里到那里 measurements like the way I measured is from there to there.
你知道我们会去那里 我们很可能会去那里 You know we are going to go up there. We are probably going to go up there.
那么它是如何变成看涨的呢 我们开始拿出那些 So how does it become bullish We start to take out those
高点走低 随着多头收盘 多头可能 lower highs. With bull closes bulls are probably
瞄准那些高点 所以你只要顺着 going to target those highs. So you just go along with
就是这样 it. So there you go.
即使这个形态也是一个很好的设置 Even this set up is a good set up.
保险杠向上移动并关闭 Bull bar goes and closes above.
我会衡量我的风险 我会选择 I'll just measure my risk. And I'll go for
1R 和 2R 还有更多吗 看那个 那是 3R a 1R and a 2R. Anything more than that Look at that. That's 3R.
那是 4R 那是 5R 一 二 三 四 五 That's 4R. That's 5R. One two three four five.
即使后期出现牛旗 止损 Even late with a bull flag. With a stop
就在这里 你不需要在那里停下 或者 here. You don't need to put your stop there. Or is
你可以测量这条腿 然后测量 you can measure this leg and go for a measured
平均值 这就是你测量的平均值 mean. That is your measured mean.
这就是你的2R 但我们没收到 为什么 其实这还不是全部 And that is your 2R but we didn't get it. Why Well this is not really all
太棒了 因为这是一条带有杠铃的断腿 that great because it was an interrupted leg with bar
59. 如果我测量这个会怎么样 59. What if I measure this
然后我选择2R 这是我最喜欢的 And then I go for a 2R. That's my favorite
做这件事的方式 或者测量一下 那条腿 way of doing it. Or measure that. That leg.
这根本就没有被打断 That's not interrupted at all.
它继续着 一 二 三 四 五 六 It continues. One two three four five six.
保险杠 我会去的 然后就完事了 Bull bar. I'll go for that and be done with
它 我们无法走多远 所以谁在乎呢 你会 it. We couldn't get to how far so who cares You'd be taking
利润与K线 77 和这些都没有 profit with bar 77 and none of this
是你关心的 好了 我的 is your concern. Al I am done with my
大家开会 明天…… session everyone. For tomorrow...
明天会发生什么 好吧 看看发生了什么 What is happening tomorrow Well look what happened
这里有些东西非常深刻且可预测 here. Something is very profound and predictable
发生了 妈妈K线 牛栏 happened. Mother bar bull bar
是内线 多头正在买入 is inside bar. Bulls are buying.
它们将多头主体封闭在内线上方 They close the bull body above the inside bar.
所以现在如果你是一头多头 So now if you are a bull and
你看...你想要你的 you see... you wanted your
1R 为 969 个 ticks 1R which is 969 ticks
在内侧栏上方 记住你现在的位置 你是 above the inside bar. Remember where you are now. You are
看看... on a... look
你甚至还没看到……你正在看日线图 你甚至还没看到它有多远 所以 you didn't even get... you're on a daily chart. You didn't even get to how far. So
有时候效果不太好 所以我不太用 sometimes it doesn't work all that well. So I don't really use
里面的K线 但有时确实如此 我不 the inside bar. But sometimes it does. I don't
使用内侧栏 所以我做的是看看 use the inside bar. So what I do is that I look to see
如果多头能够突破 if the bulls are able to break out from
妈妈K线那边 不 他们实际上 the mother bar side. Nope. They actually
测试了陷阱区 陷阱区 tested the trap zone. Trap zone
从这里开始 一直到这里 然后立即开始关闭裸露的 starts here goes all the way here. And then immediately start to close bare
实体 这是陷阱区以下的每日报告 所以 bodies. This is a daily below the trap zone. So it's
可能会来这里 昨天我说我们要 probably going to come down here. Yesterday I say we're going to
在中间点找到买家 我们找到了 但看看发生了什么 find buyers at the midpoint. We found it. But look what happened.
此区域为阻力区 This area is resistance.
他们开始卖了 那么我们现在在哪里 They start to sell. So now where are we
去吗 我今天早上交易的时候告诉过大家 我说 going I told everybody this morning when I was trading this I said let
卖出 标记在这里 它会标记在那个 the sell. Tag here. It's going to tag between that
还有这里 因为这里是买入区 所以我们来了 and here. Because this is a buy zone here. So we came
放下 标记 然后弹跳 然后关闭那里的K线 明天 down tagged it and bounced and closed the bar there. Tomorrow
我们实际上可以 we could actually
看到双底 多头想要的是 see a double bottom. What bulls want is
再往前走 达到移动平均线 也许 another leg and go up to the moving average. And maybe
甚至突破并测试这些高点 但他们 even get a break out and test these highs. But they
需要 他们已经看到三人下推 need they see three push down already.
一 二 三 一 二 三 One two and three. One two three.
而且存在双底 所以 以下是可能发生的情况 And there's a double bottom. So here's what can happen.
我们已经标记了买入区域 如果明天会变成 We already tagged the buy zone. If tomorrow would become
看涨并上涨 bullish and go up
但我们无法结束一天的工作 我们可以 but we cannot close a day. We could get
一个内部K线 然后回来 也许接近 an inside bar and come back down. Maybe close
在这下面的某个地方 然后第二天我们会下来测试这个低点 somewhere down here. Then the next day we would come down and test this low
也许在这里 但买家会在这里 但是 and maybe here but buyers would be here. But
明天 如果我们变得看涨 说 tomorrow if we become bullish say
我们今天 明天就开始买入并结束交易 we start the buy to close today tomorrow.
我们变得乐观起来并结束多头 And we become bullish and go and close a bull
就在那里 明天可能会横盘整理 然后上涨 bar there. Maybe go sideways and up tomorrow.
这给了我们看涨的动力 That gives us bullish move
一路回到这里 多头在哪里 to go all the way back up here. Where the bulls got
被困住了 因为他们买下了这家K线 而这家K线的价位高于这家K线 trapped. Because they bought this bar above this bar.
他们正在寻找 989 个上涨点 And they were looking for 989 ticks up.
他们被欺骗了 And they got bamboozled.
如果你不知道那是什么意思 If you don't know what that means.
好吧 如果你是一头多头并且你被困住了 Okay so if you are a bull and you are trapped.
您在买入区再次买入 You buy again in the buy zone.
明天我们将开始看到多头在中间价上方收盘 And tomorrow we start to have bull bars closing above the mid
妈妈K线的点 这意味着我们要试着回到 point of the mother bar. That means we are going to try to get back
直到多头实际买入的水平 第二天我们还可以 up to where the bulls actually bought. And the next day we can also
也能达到这个目标 所以接下来的两天我们可能会看涨 get there too. So next two days we could be bullish.
这就是我认为我们可以去那里的理由 And that is my reasoning why we could go there.
这将成为下面的双底牛旗 And that will become a double bottom bull flag underneath
移动平均线 多头希望回到移动平均线 甚至更高 the moving average. Bulls want to get back to the moving average. And above.
他们想上去 但他们只能 They want to get up here. But they will only
如果明天不关门就去那里 get up there if tomorrow does not close
低于内线低点 如果明天 below the inside bar's low. If tomorrow
最终变成了空头K线并关闭 ends up becoming a bear bar and closes.
这太糟糕了 因为空头会想要下跌 That's too bad because then bears will want to come down and
测试母条的低点并获取该目标 test the mother bar's low and get that target instead.
所以明天我要去寻找多头 看看我们是否真的可以 So tomorrow I'm going to look for bulls and see if we can actually
变得看涨 并突破这一水平 但如果我们变得看跌 become bullish and get above there. But if we become bearish
继续卖 and keep selling okay
我们可以关闭 我们可以下来测试 就这样 然后下一个 we could close we could come down and test here and that's all. And then the next
有一天我们可能会卖出我们的目标股票 day we could end up selling into the one on our target.
所以它基本上是横向的 它可以 So it's basically sideways. It can go
涨 就跌 现在因为母棒是看涨的 up it can come down. Now because mother bar is bullish
空头已经卖出了三条腿 这可能是牛旗 双底 bears already sold with three legs. This could be a bull flag double bottom
或楔形 我预计多头将出现 or wedge. I expect bulls to come up
并实现盈亏平衡 因为多头在此买入 and break even because bulls bought here.
现在多头通过确认陷阱在这里买入 Now bulls bought here with confirmation trap.
他们会在中间某个地方再次买入 也许他们买入是为了平仓 They buy again somewhere in the middle somewhere there. Maybe they buy to close
明天 等等 苹果 tomorrow. Hold on apple is
躺在……苹果上 不要那样做 所以如果你是一个 laying on the... apple don't do that. So if you're a
多头 你在这里买入并被套牢 也许明天如果它变成 bull you bought here and trapped maybe tomorrow if it becomes
今天收盘看涨 bullish by the close today
多头至少想要那里 我要标记一下 bulls want at least there. I'm going to mark that.
这是处于上方的多头的平均盈亏平衡点 And that's the average break even for the bulls that are stuck above
确认栏 他们买入的股票超过了确认栏 但无法获得 the confirmation bar. They bought above it and they couldn't get
什么都做不了 他们就被困住了 所以明天我们也许可以 anything and they got trapped. So tomorrow we might be able to actually
在那里测试一下 然后再卖出去 所以也许我们可以 test there and then maybe sell again. So maybe we could
去那里 给这些多头一个机会 然后 just go there give these bulls a chance and then
回来 然后我会测量这个 这是 come back down. Then I would measure this that's
969 个刻度 但我需要一只熊接近 969 ticks but I need a bear close.
所以明天我们可以去那里 给多头一个机会 So tomorrow we could go there give the bulls a chance
退出 to exit
然后下降 靠近下方 and then come down close below
那里 一具熊的实体 然后是下一个 there a bear body then the next
我今天会在这里卖东西 好吧 我 day I would be selling into here. Al I'm
好了 祝大家晚上愉快 明天 done. You all have a great evening. Tomorrow
是...我们来看看吧 is... let's take a look.
我们有交易室 We have the trade room.
日历 Calendar.
哦 我早上来 然后布劳特来了 Oh I'm in the morning and then Brout comes
下午我周三休息 然后我来 in the afternoon and I'm off on Wednesday and then I come
周四回来 然后周五早上 明天早上见 back on Thursday and then Friday morning. Al I'll see you guys tomorrow morning.
再见 各位 Bye everybody.