can China be a military superpower
Beijing has outlined its defense plans
that includes a modern and advanced army
it's also accused the u.s. of
undermining global stability so how will
this defense policy play out both in the
asia-pacific region and beyond this is
inside story
[Music]
hello and welcome to the program I'm
Halima Hadean global military
competition is on the rise and China
believes it's lagging behind Beijing
says the US has increased its defense
budgets modernized its weapons and
developed its capability in cyber space
and space itself well the Chinese
government wants to catch up it's
detailed how it intends to do just that
in a national defense paper released on
Wednesday Beijing has declared it wants
greater modernization of its Armed
Forces and weapons it says it's
ambitious plans are peaceful but not if
Taiwan tries to achieve independence
from the mainland China's defense
ministry has warned it's ready to go to
war to safeguard its national unity and
says it will take all necessary measures
to defeat those it calls separatists
that's here what China spokesperson had
to say the building and growth of
China's defense capability is based on
its own justified security demands it's
growth has always been the growth of the
force for world peace
the white paper has clearly demonstrated
China's policy of not pursuing hegemony
the theory that a strong country must
seek hegemony will never apply to China
no matter how China is developed in the
future we will not threaten anyone
neither will we seek spheres of
influence we module there are still big
gaps between China's defense expenditure
and its demands of maintaining the
national sovereignty security and
interests complementing its obligations
as a major power and maintain the
progress of its own defense level we
will continue to keep a proper and
stable growth of expenditure well the
island of Taiwan is self ruled but China
sees it as part of its own territory
the US has angered Beijing by approving
sales of weapons to the island this
month sales worth more than two billion
dollars while China says it won't allow
the island to split from the mainland we
are willing to strive for the prospect
of peaceful reunification with utmost
sincerity and effort
however we have to be very clear that
seeking Taiwan independence will meet a
dead end if anyone dares to separate
Taiwan from China the Chinese army will
certainly fight resolutely defending the
country's sovereign unity and
territorial integrity
well the mainland Affairs Council
Taiwan's top policymaking body on China
condemns Beijing remarks in a statement
it says we urge Beijing authorities to
renounce irrational malicious acts such
as the use of force and to improve
cross-straits relations and handle
issues including Hong Kong rationally so
it can be a responsible regional member
well let's have a look at China's
military power China's People's
Liberation Army is the world's largest
military force with more than 2 million
soldiers on the grounds in the air and
at sea President Xi Jinping says he
wants to transform the PLA into what he
calls a world-class force capable of
winning wars anywhere by 2050 China has
cut the size of its land-based army by
around 50% and significantly boosted its
naval and air forces as parts of that
plan and it's investing heavily in
modernizing its military equipment
China's defense budget is the world's
second largest after the United States
it's military expenditure for this year
is set at more than one hundred and
seventy-five billion dollars president
Donald Trump has demanded the u.s. 2019
defense budget be increased to 750
billion dollars
well let's bring in our panel in Bangkok
via Skype we have John Gravette he's an
analyst at Jane's by IFS marketer
defense and security consultancy in DC
were joined by Lawrence Korb he served
as US assistant secretary of defense and
is now a senior fellow at the Center for
American Progress and in Berlin we have
Adam mean he's a China researcher at
Macquarie University in Sydney and a
visiting fellow at the University of
Hamburg welcome to you all I'd like to
start in Berlin if I could with Adam Lee
but what would you say we've learned
from this white paper I think the white
paper is a strong political statement it
didn't present any real strategies or
any surprise for these of us that
watches China's military but it's a very
strong political statement about how
China sees its regional and
international environment how how he
sees at the role played by the US which
is counterproductive and destabilizing
in the view of Beijing but as well as
some other bits which I think are
critically important and one of these is
our internal security has become such a
big part of China's national security
that it's being that it's being elevated
to the top of Beijing's
priority for its armed forces but as
well as the focus on political loyalty
of the Armed Forces as well thanks very
much for that out of it let's cross to
Washington DC now in Lawrence Korb
we heard that this is China's statements
of defining its rule in the world what
would you say
China's message is with this with this
document and how is the u.s. likely to
interpret that well China's message is
that unlike our own document they're not
a strategic competitor us worldwide that
they're basically protecting their own
interests and also that their millet
is getting more and more powerful
particularly in their region what we
call the Indo Pacific Pacific region and
they will protect their interests and
again as they've been doing ever since
that the revolution that Taiwan is part
of China and we're not happy with the
United States continuing to provide
military assistance there and if you
should think about you know becoming
separate we will use our military force
to prevent the Taiwan from doing that
even if the u.s. age them do you think
Lawrence Korb this is a shot across the
bow then are more emboldened China is
now ready to say we are ready at this
point to take military action and it's
time for the u.s. to back off well
basically they're saying that you know
they're on their way to doing that they
said by 2050 they're going to be a
world-class military but the fact of the
matter is in their region they're also
very very powerful they also no mention
they complain about the u.s. being a
global power and messing around all the
world they don't talk about their belt
road initiative which is destabilizing
in a lot of parts of the world okay
recentiy very interesting points there
Lawrence Korb the Belton rule initiative
and the perceptions of the United States
I want to raise these two issues during
the course of our discussion but John
Gravette if I could just come to you how
do you interpret this white paper in
this statement from China on the the
state of its military in the direction
that it's going in what's the main
takeaway for you well I mean the
statement so far right in as much that
this shows China's determination to
retain its sovereignty over Taiwan and
control that situation and also the
message to the US but there's also a lot
of holes I think in the white paper that
was issued today there's a lot of
there's a lot of ambiguity and there's a
lot of areas that China doesn't really
come
provide any deep many details on for
example military bases international
military bases it talks a little bit
about the one in the Horn of Africa but
very nothing else in other examples
include the scope of military
modernization and capabilities that that
China is looking to deploy very little
information about that the main thrust
certainly is that the Taiwan aspect that
the Taiwan situation was not apparent in
the 2015 white paper only only passing
reference and so this is the real main
takeaway in this 20 in this 2019 white
paper and the reason for that is because
the United States has played a much
stronger role under President Trump I
think in certainly in supporting Taiwan
and that is the main message here but
like I say there is a number of
ambiguities in the white paper you know
China uses the white paper I think
really to show that it is becoming more
transparent and more open about its
military objectives but I think it
doesn't really it's failed to do that I
think certainly and I don't I think it
would be a noticeable aspect of it in
the United States a madam me if I could
come to you you mentioned there the
focus on this white paper it has the
contrast with the previous white paper
in 2015 which was more focused on an
external perspective now the focus one
could interpret it as being a more
internal one focusing on China's
domestic stability what it uses its
territories do you think in some way
there is it signals a new determination
for the Chinese to take more concrete
action when it comes to Taiwan or is
this more of a diversionary tactic to
focus more on the internal and domestic
policies while quietly expanding
influence overseas I think certainly the
domestic aspects has become top of a
Beijing agenda if you look at the 2015
defense white paper
taijuan Tibet and Sheng John is not
explicitly mentioned although it is
implied but in this case they have been
incorporated into the tasks and missions
of the Chinese military so it's very
clear that this has elevated importance
for the Chinese party state the other
thing is that there's added language
with reference to maintaining political
security maintaining social stability so
very much coded language for maintaining
to control the party okay
one of the other big messages from this
was the fact that the u.s. is
undermining global stability I'd like to
examine that and Adams staying with you
in what way is the u.s. undermining
global stability according to this white
paper in this report yeah so in Beijing
is viewed the u.s. is pursuing what it
who work what it called hegemony ISM so
essentially security security at the
cost of others and being able to
exercise a degree of power that is
seized as illegitimate right but also in
the region in Beijing's view the United
States is increasingly antagonistic
towards Beijing whether that be in the
South China Sea or with reference to
Taiwan and indeed the reinforcement of
the u.s. alliance networks and
deployments and other forms of
intervention in the region and beyond
its unilateralism as well its
enhancement of its military capabilities
so all of that threatens Beijing and
perceived by Beijing as potentially
threatening of its national interests
Lawrence Korb would you with the u.s.
accept these arguments that it's America
that's that's undermining global
stability no obviously the United States
feels that it's in the region because
they're asked to be there by our allies
the Japanese the South Koreans the
Australians
and that we're there to help protect
them for example if the Chinese try and
take over some of the islands that
traditionally have belonged to Japan we
would we would prevent that and
obviously we would come to the defense
of Taiwan if for example the Chinese
decided that they've waited long enough
and they had to use force to to unify
the unify the island so we're feel that
we're there to provide the stability and
the Chinese are the aggressors I think
it's very interesting now we've
tightened our ties with India it's not
used to be the Pacific Command now it's
the Indo Pacific Command and India and
China have been traditional arrivals in
the area john kravitz we're seeing that
two narratives here from China's
perspective the u.s. is threatening
global stability from the u.s.
perspective they're merely defending
allies in the region and China is
becoming more of a destabilizing factor
can both these things be true yes I mean
China obviously sees its military
modernization its military investment
its non-military activities such as the
Belton Road initiative which are aimed
at building strategic and economic
influence primarily I'm all these go
hand in hand and our part of China's
strong development that we've seen over
the past few years and this will
continue and so this kind of this white
paper is part of the process of laying
down the foundation and laying down the
marker as to where China's position in
the global in the global between the
global powers is it's it's showing to
the US we're here we're a dominant
player in the region and we will
continue and expand our power over the
coming over the coming decade and and
and the lines that it's put in the sand
today with this white paper certainly in
terms of Taiwan is a warning and one
that will be you know understood in the
US but the US will obviously not stand
down so it means that there will be a
requirement for diplomacy and for
discussions and negotiations and also
threats and and and and concerns about
misunderstandings in some of the region
so that so that there is you know there
is a place for two but it requires a
certain level of diplomacy because
neither of these two powers the US and
China are going away anytime soon in
this region and beyond and it gives rise
to to the question we know how likely
are we to see some kinds of military
intervention because already the US and
China are in the middle of a trade war
neither side look willing to back down
does this increase a risk of a military
confrontation I don't think because
there is an understanding that what's
happening at the moment in certainly in
areas like the South China Sea where
China's military power has grown to such
an extent that its deterrence has also
grown which means that it's that the
chances of military engagement have
decreased so China's military power has
decreased as increased to such a rate
that they that the chances of any real
military conflict has has probably
decreased with some certain regional
players however that's not the u.s. and
that's where the complication is and the
real danger I think is misunderstandings
miscalculations about patrols and the
areas that they do patrols about that
that is probably an area that is of
concern but diplomacy will be a key
aspect going forward for these two
nations Adam me just how far do you
think China is prepared to go with
regard to Taiwan we heard in that press
conference there the spokesperson saying
we're willing to go to war do you think
we can take that statement at face value
I think it's hard to judge that I mean
China has been consistently saying for a
long time now that it's willing to go to
war over Taiwan but I think ultimately
the cardinal principle that animates
Chinese behavior at home as well as
policy abroad is the need to keep the
Chinese Communist Party in power so if
it comes to Taiwan or the collapse of
the Communist Party then I think they
wouldn't go to war but in other
scenarios you can imagine where the
Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy is
threatened and it's been put into a
really tough spot
where it feels that military action is
its only way out so I think that's the
kind of scenario that will potentially
have escalation implications and very
tragic consequences Lawrence Korb a
similar question to you how far is the
u.s. prepared to go when it comes to
support for Taiwan given these red lines
and markers have really been drawn in
the sons with this white paper well
there's no doubt about the fact that the
US would come to Taiwan's aid if the
Chinese should be foolish enough to try
and integrate it using military force
obviously nobody wants that because
nobody's going to win if that if that
happens
similarly the United States and China
have to be careful they don't have an
accidental escalation when we're
conducting patrols in the area and
they're trying to you know bill run Y
runways on these islands that they're
that they're that they're claiming and I
think that's the real danger as well as
the fact that something could happen in
North Korea given what's what's going on
there their missile buildup the fact
that we're putting missiles in South
Korea theoretically to defend against
North Korea but the Chinese see them as
undermining their new
clear deterrent so those are the things
I think you have to be very very careful
careful about and make sure that we
maintain lines of communication so when
accidental encounter does not spiral
into a conflict that nobody really wants
absolutely but things Lawrence Korb do
seem to be deteriorating in terms of the
rhetoric building up with this trade war
going on the Chinese using very much
more robust rhetoric when it comes to
outlining their position in this white
paper do you think this will be ringing
alarm bells in Washington the release of
this white paper do you think in the
u.s. there is a recognition that they
are not going to be the only superpower
in tone well I think it will reinforce
our the American national security
strategy which said you know we have two
major strategic competitors China and
Russia and China is them is the more
potent one and that's why we've had to
increase our defense spending which in
real terms even if you control for
inflation is higher than at the height
of the Reagan buildup or during during
World War two so it will feed into that
narrative and make it hard for people
who say we're focusing too much on
defense and not enough on diplomacy or
to win the to win the day Adam need to
you think we are looking at a new
Chinese military superpower already
China's very strong economically is this
the the next frontier indeed I think Xi
Jinping has made a abundantly clear that
China is looking for a service power
status when it comes to its military
force the white paper clearly highlights
that the People's Liberation Army is not
where Beijing wants it to be
acknowledges that tremendous
modernization and reform has already
happened but it also says that it's it
still lags behind world leading
militaries and I think that's what that
that's what China's military were
working towards and it's got milestones
in 20 20 20
thirty-five and of course to become the
world leading a world leading military
by 2050 so indeed we're looking at
China's pursuit of that military
superstardom it's another matter to kind
of evaluate whether that is possible in
the frame in a timeframe given by xi
Jinping okay and to you John gråvik's
we're coming to the end of our
discussion just give me your thoughts
are we looking now at two military
superpowers the US and China or will the
u.s. remain dominant in this regard at
the moment the u.s. is dominant in this
regard and will remain so for the
foreseeable future certainly for the
near-term and as was stated just now
Chinese military has certain goals that
it wants to achieve by the twenty
mid-2030s and 2050s and I think by that
time on the trajectory that China is on
at the moment with the investment that
China has committed and is committing to
military modernization there will be a
different scope and a different level of
military power available to the Chinese
government at that period at the moment
the US isn't ahead in terms of
capabilities and technologies and
understanding but the China Chinese is
rapidly improving its capabilities very
quickly
well lots of food for thought that I'd
like to thank all of my guests Jon
Kravitz Lawrence Korb and Adam knee and
thank you too for watching you can see
the program again any time by visiting
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Mohideen but for me for now and the
whole inside story team it's bye-bye
you