It's results day - the day your votes count for something.
Today you'll find out who's line to take the decisions,
make the laws and take responsibility at Stormont.
Today you will find out who is in line to take the decisions, make the
laws and take on the responsibility. If the campaign didn't exactly
ignite, today it catches fire for the candidates who'll find out
if your votes have put them You'll hear a lot of numbers
and statistics in the course But here's the simple figure -
276 politicians are competing Results are already
starting to come in. David Hilditch of the DUP
in East Antrim became the first MLA Followed by a glut of results. The
biggest night-time you long of the Alliance.
And in mid-Ulster, Linda Dillon, Milne and Patsy McGlone. More on the
other results shortly. The ballot boxes were opened here in
Belfast and elsewhere this morning. These are pictures we
recorded here first thing And this was the first box to be
opened, all the votes tumbling For those of you who want to know -
there could be roughly anywhere between 700 and 1,000 votes
in the average ballot box. The count's well underway here
for the city's four constituencies. This of course is a brand new venue
- for those of you used to seeing the familiar space
of the King's Hall but you'll become very familiar with this new venue
as the day and evening We'll, of course, be bringing
you the outcomes from all 18 constituencies where the votes
are being calculated. Our reporters are at
all the count centres - eight of them in total -
where the stories and drama will emerge, minute by minute until
the final seat is decided. And you can keep in touch with us
and all developments on social media We'll be hearing from leading
politicians throughout the afternoon and evening -
but also here we'll have business people, educationalists
and commentators who'll be talking about whether this new venue
will help put us in a fresh And of course because election
counts draw out victory and defeat, we'll have a cartoonist
to illustrate any of the emotion We have results in. Our Political
Editor Mark Davenport is ready to drill into the figures.
I'm her with Nicholas Whyte. Trying to unpick a lot of the detail that
emother-in-lawings in proportional wrens elections. Hower efficient
have the parties been in marshalling the vote management? Will some of
the independents or smaller parties break through and where will the
trends emerge? And the relationships between the DUP, the Ulster Unionist
Party and the SDLP and the aligns for the first time in years. What do
you make of it so far. Level in many areas. But up in the unionist areas
and down in the nationalist areas. More details later and tracking the
counts and gauging where they have been going and if there has been
tactical voting. Who knows, the figures may allow us to make
predictions about the final six seats.
So, what is the new Stormont going to look like.
Throughout this even and tomorrow, we will see the benches fill up with
108 MLAs. Can Martin McGuinness take the job
of First Minister? Are the SDLP on the Ulster Unionists on the way
back. Or could we see the rise of independence and the smaller
parties? Join me as we watch the new assembly take shape seat by seat.
Our reporter Will Leech is at Newton Abbey. Where the South Antrim count
is going on as well, Will? Gnawed Sorry, we have a bit of a technical
problem. A brilliant picture of Will Leech looking well. Lots of things
happening in East Antrim but unable to hear what he is saying. Back to
him when we establish when we can establish communications properly.
The first seat in South Antrim. Now back to Belfast. To the Titanic
Exhibition Centre, Tara is there where there are four big counts
taking place. There is no mistaking the importance
of the 24 seats to be decided. The city has been, is and probably
always will be the big battle ground for the parties. The exhibition
centre sits where once ships were built and is close to the host of
new buildings, housing all manners of now employers. During the
history, Belfast has experienced turmoils, troubles, triumphs and
defeats. It generates assembly seats and can be a significant
psychological boost for any political party. All five big
parties have a lot to win and lose, there are likely to be tight races.
Lisa McAlister can let us know how the counts are going. Well, all
morning the staff here have been verifying the votes, counting them.
In the last half an hour a flurry of activity with three constituencies
declaring the first preference votes. We start with the East
Belfast. We had the DUP's Joanne Bunting topping the poll with 5538
votes. Followed by the aligns party's Naomi long. They are both
elected. A little bit of girl power in East Belfast. South Belfast, a
different story there, the former Lord Mayor of Belfast topped the
poll. But nobody yet elected there as making the quota. And Gerry Kelly
is elected with 5695 votes. We are just about to get the first
preference declaration from West Belfast. But for the moment, I think
we can go to Conor McCally in Pam bridge.
Yes, two seats being counted. The Upper Ban and the nuclearry and
Armagh seats. Sinn Fein is mounting a move for a second seat. It could
be Dolores Kelly of the SDLP. I have been talking to her. She is in a
scrap for the seat. In Newry and Armagh, much as you were. Three Sinn
Fein, one new UUP, one DUP. The question is which of the two SDLP
candidates who could come through? It looks like we could see results
there. A few results in mid-Ulster for the
MLA's return there. Robbie Meredith is at the Seven Towers Leisure
Centre. You have had a bit of activity
earlier on, Robbie? By lunch time we had four MLAs in. Ian Milton topped
the poll, followed by the Agriculture Minister, Michelle
O'Neill and Linda Dylan. The SDLP's Patsy McGlone over the quota, so
elected and the UULP I have spoken to their candidate. But we could be
set for a battle for a seat between the DUP candidates. Pulling almost
an equal number of votes. When it comes to North ant trim, the DUP
have four candidates there. They will expect to get at least three
in. But expecting to see how TUV's Jim McAllister and the Sinn Fein's
McKay and robin Swan looking to get back. We are told to expect a
declaration certainly within the next hour.
If the Ulster Unionists are looking to build on Westminster, then Lagan
Valley presents a possible opportunity. Not only is the party
looking to regain the seat taken by basil McCrea the last time but
looking to add a second seat at the expense of the DUP in a DUP
stronghold. Coming to the election with four seats in Lagan Valley.
They recognise it is a fight to hold all four. They have made it to
three. Paul Gibbon has topped the poll but about 200 votes short from
the first round from being elected. He takes over from Edwin Poots as
top dog for the DUP in Lagan Valley. Talking of former DUP Health
Minister, what about Jim Wells, he is here. They are counting the South
Down votes. He nearly did not get into the centre having not turned up
without Osmed will ID, he sip says he will return to Stormont.
I don't expect change from the two SDLP and two Sinn Fein MLAs elected
the last time. But with Mr Wells getting in it leaves a scrap for the
final unionist seat. The than, independent unionist, John
McAllister who told me before coming on air that he needs a minor miracle
to be re-elected, he says that his Stormont career is over.
Here at the Foyle Arena, there is a battle for the supremacy between the
SDLP and Sinn Fein it stands at 3-2-2. This time, Martin McGuinness
is back on home turf. Can he swing fortunes around and take the
leadership from the SDLP? We will have to wait and see. The first
reference is in. Colin Eastwood five on the nos. Martin McGuinness got 37
more votes. But some way to go yet. The impressive performer? It is
Eamon McCann. Something in the region of over 4,100 first
preference votes. Can can he make up the difference to the cost of the
SDLP? We will have to wait and see. Expect Gary Middleton to take a seat
and retain it for the DUP. In East Londonderry, a loss of two familiar
faces. Gregory Campbell to concentrate on Westminster and John
Dallat. He is retiring from active politics. Now both parties expect to
retain the seats that they hold. Sinn Fein are trying to go for
another at the expense of the SDLP. And Clare Sugden, she is walking
about the count centre, an independent, holding on to that
seat. There was speculation she may lose it but she is quietly
confident. So all to ply for here in East Londonderry and Foyle.
Arlene Foster has arrived atoma Leisure Centre, where she is
expected to top the poll in south ar Mania. The two Ulster unionist
candidates have not done so well. The vote is evenly split between
them. On the nationalist side Michelle guild knew was defeated
here 12 months ago but after that, it is anybody's guess after the Sinn
Fein selection debacle left them with four candidates defending three
seats, the SDLP are hoping to take advantage and regain the seat that
they lost five years ago. Over in West Tyrone, Daniel McCrossan seems
to have performed strongly against the challenge of the former SDLP
councillors who left the party and stood as independent Social
Democrats democrats. He could retain his seat meaning that things are as
they are in West Tyrone. 18 candidates standing in West Tyrone.
Booking for Monday in case the count continues into a third day but so
far, things progressing smoothly. I'm in Bangor for the constituencies
here. Here there are two results in. A cluster of high-profile candidates
here. Three DUP ministers and the Ulster unionist leader, Mike
Nesbitt. He had a second MLA last time but McNarry defected to Ukip.
If looks like he may not hold tonne the second seat. Mike Nesbitt topped
the poll up against Michelle McAveen. He is stunned. They are
elected and a safe seat for Kelly Armstrong. The fight there now is
between Joe Boyle of the SDLP and possibly a second Ulster unionist
candidate. Joe Boyle could be the first nationalist for the area.
Then three DUP's for it to become a DUP stronghold. And the Alliance,
Stephen Fahey looking safe. And Steven Agnew has polled strongly
here as well. We know in the past this count has finished in one day,
so fingers crossed. We have found the gremlin in Newton
happy and had a serious talk with it. It is now cooperating. Will
Leitch is there. You are looking fantastic before, but we could not
hear you. Just talk us through what is happening. You have the East
Antrim and South Antrim count? That is right. What a huge cheer there
was for David Hilditch, as he romped home for the DUP. The first MLA
elected, clear of the quota. Paul Girvan was the DUP man in South
Antrim, almost elected, just six votes shy. We actually hearing the
second preference... You can hear the cheering, I suspect that might
be Paul Girvan going through now as the second DUP MLA and elected. So,
no surprise in an area that gets a very strong unionist vote. David
Ford is up for election. He still wants to be an MLA. He was not happy
with his first preference vote, but still optimistic. Two things to
mention, two who are not standing again, Sammy Wilson of the DUP,
Danny Kinahan of the UUP. We will hear more from the reporters at the
count centres. We are on air until midnight. Hopefully lots of results
until then. This is East Antrim. We'll was talking through that. The
result, David Hilditch of the DUP returned. No great surprise. It is a
DUP heartland. Add three seats, we will see of the other come home. I
presume they are feeling pretty good. Mid Ulster that is the result
after the first stage. Three Sinn Fein candidates home comfortable
you. Patsy McGlone as well for the SDLP. That is the share in Mid
Ulster. No surprise, pretty strong showing from Sinn Fein, 46%. The DUP
with 18%. The SDLP, 15, Patsy McGlone, a significant figure in the
party, home and dry. The change on Mid Ulster, an 2011, the last
Assembly election, Sinn Fein got the three home, but down a little bit.
The DUP up, the SDLP up slightly, Ulster Unionists up. We will see how
the rest of the seats shape up. This is East Belfast. Two MLAs home.
Joanne Bunting and Naomi Long. No surprise that Naomi Long is home in
east Belfast. The deputy leader of the matter alliance Party. -- deputy
leader of the Alliance party. In East Belfast, they are chasing three
seats, hopeful they can get three seats. We have a couple more, DUP
down a little bit. That is not necessarily mean it is a disaster as
far seats are concerned. This is the state the parties, I am going to
introduce the panellists to talk about some of the figures.
That says People Before Profit has one won. I don't know if it is
confirmed. It is on the graphic, it is literally confirmed as we speak.
My three guests, we are going to have a word about this. Everybody
said there was a quota for Jerry Kyle, there was? Yes, the
interesting thing will be at whose expense it comes. It is maybe a sign
of one of the most hopeful things about this election, that there is a
plethora of candidates. Independence of a more unusual hue. He topped the
poll, 22.9% share. The next candidate behind him was Alex Maskey
of Sinn Fein, with 4700. Frank McCoubrey is in next place. There
was a lot of speculation he might struggle. Might be trying to manage
expectations, by talking about how well Gerry Carroll was going to do.
Here's comfortably over what he got last year in the Westminster
election, that is quite a stunning result. Frank McCoubrey Zucker
result will probably impact on that as well. I want to go back to
Belfast and the count at the Titanic Exhibition Centre. That news will
come through. I have two of the first Belfast MLAs
to be elected. The DUP, a completely new life in terms of the public
face, what will you bring to Stormont? I bring some level of
experience, having worked at Stormont for 18 years. LCD other
side of it as an MLA. There are challenges ahead. I'm looking
forward to finding my feet and finding my niche. I look forward to
serving people to the rest of my ability. What was the message you
are getting on the doorstep? A number of things. People are keen to
see improvements. People, our message resonated with the people of
Belfast. People are keen to see good health care, good education, people
want DUP ministers, because people have seen the DUP ministers deliver.
The issue for us was that people want us to take them all, and now we
have a choice to make. Congratulations on your election,
you are a familiar face at Stormont. For the general voter out there,
will it be more of the same? I don't think so. What you have to do to
continue being elected in any party is to improve what you did last
time. That is what we are trying to do. We have two weeks to put forward
a proposal for government and we are confident of doing that. It will
involve the five parties and the Executive, I don't think that will
change. We have to improve on it. Things like ourselves and the DUP,
we have said we are up for putting ?1 billion into health. It needs to
be more than money, it needs to be a complete revamp of the way we are
dealing with health. The issues are health, education and jobs, as well
as local issues. Will come back to those topics in a moment. I want to
ask you about Gerry Carroll in west Belfast. Topping the poll, great
success, not so good a message for Sinn Fein, whose seat is eager to
one of yours? Good question, I don't have the answer. In West Belfast,
indeed anywhere, it is almost impossible to take five out of six
seats. We did it last time in West Belfast. We knew it would be a
fight. We knew that Gerry Carroll was going to poll well and strongly.
I think it is up there for the five seats and we are still in with a
possibility of taking all five. I think we will certainly take four.
We might take the five yet, because it is not only them in their, I
don't think the SDLP will be pleased with where they are sitting. What
about his appeal? Is it a case that Sinn Fein have taken their eye off
the ball in terms of local issues in West Belfast, and he has been able
to come in? We work with People Before Profit in the south. We will
work with People Before Profit in the North. There are issues which we
agree on and issues which we might disagree on, but would we take our
eye off the ball? I hope not. Every election has to BA lesson, finding
out if we are taking the right view to represent people. If people tell
us we're doing something wrong, we will take heed to that. After the
first count, we are holding up our vote across the North and we hope to
improve on that. We will see what happens at the end of the day. You
both mention health and education as being big issues, but they are the
department is your parties had, and things are going wrong, people are
not satisfied? In everything in life, there can always be
improvements. Those are the issues that affect everybody. Everybody
wants their child to have a good education, every child has the right
to a good education, the same with health care, we all want folks to be
looked after properly. But particularly Protestant young boys,
they are not getting an education or for some reason not coming out with
the results? The DUP has taken enormous strides in trying to
address those difficulties. We have set up the APG to deal with
educational underachievement, that is something we take very seriously,
particularly with Protestant boys. Jobs are an enormous issue, the
economy, people need to have jobs, not just low paid jobs, good jobs
that bring investment into Northern Ireland. We have been much more
successful than we have envisaged in the past mandate and I think we can
build on that, we have a strong foundation on which to build. Do you
think you will bring your running mates with you into the Assembly? I
think both of my running mate will make it on their own merits. They
are well-known and well liked candidates, renowned for doing their
jobs. My colleagues can stand on their own two feet and make it,
absolutely. There has clearly been good about management by the DUP,
although you are well known as a former Castlereagh councillor, they
have been able to bring in first? We did our best, we knew it was
important that we have a reasonable share to stay ahead, I think we have
managed our vote well in East Belfast and we are pleased with how
it has gone. A final point about turnout, there is talk about voter
apathy being a problem. It doesn't look like that has been the case,
the turnout is quite healthy? Forgive me, I think the media with a
once saying it was going to be below 50. Most of them were saying it
would be below 50%. That has been proven to be wrong. -- had immediate
worthy ones. If you compare it not just with Westminster but the
previous Assembly, the outcome has been higher. People are still
interested and driven by it. If you look at rural areas, you can see
there is always a high vote out there. The interest is still there,
so it should be. It was hard enough to get a democratic way forward, we
have found it. It is a question of legitimacy, if it went below the
50%, you are really questioning the mandate? There is a big question
around if, the fact is that it didn't. We would be having a
different conversation. The comments have been proved wrong, and there is
still the interest. In terms of other European countries and
regions, we are still ahead when it comes down to voter interest. OK,
congratulations, thank you for joining us.
I think we are going to see pictures of some of the candidates in South
Down. It has not been a good day for the former NI21 leader. He was
standing as an independent, he knew it was going to be a tough day for
him. The figures have not been particularly good for John
McCallister. He has been eliminated, second from bottom. 1156 first
preference. He will be bitterly disappointed at that. He was the
person that steered through the Private members Bill or opposition.
It is perfectly possible we might have an opposition for the first
time in Stormont, a formal opposition for the first time. The
man who helped guide that onto the statute books will not have any
part. He has conceded defeat, he has been eliminated and hopefully we
will hear from him shortly. Jim Wells came third in South Down, with
5033 first preferences. We hope to hear from him shortly. He was topped
by Sinead Bradley of the SDLP. I think we can hear from Colum
Eastwood. He joins us from the Foyle count. Foyle and East Londonderry
are being counted at the same place, the Foyle Arena. I wonder what your
impression is of where we are so far? I think you were beaten by just
a couple of votes, by Martin McGuinness, to the top spot. He got
5037 first preferences, you got exactly 5000. Was that an honourable
performance by yourself? I think so, we have beaten Sinn Fein
in the election in Foyle. We increased the vote over Sinn Fein
from the last time. So we are happy with that. It is clear that this is
the year of the independents and the people are angry with Stormont's
performance. I think that the independents have done well in the
election. Do you think that Eamon McCann is to
pick up a seat in Foyle? There are is a lot of counting to be done. But
he has done well, as have other independents. That is an example of
people's frustration at the lack of delivery from Stormont, especially
in this constituency. But there are lots of votes to be counted. As you
and others will know it will be a day or two before we know the full
results. That will be the case across the north.
Let's talk about the SDLP, do you think you can retain the three seats
in Foyle? There has been speculation about that. A lot of people are
suggesting that Gerry Diver could lose out? Well, we need to wait and
see. As I say, there are lots of votes to be counted. I have seen
many people wouldn'ted out, and the next day they are back in the race.
What is clear is the SDLP have outpolled the Sinn Fein once again
in the constituency. We were behind in the local government election,
now we are ahead, further than the last Assembly elections. But the
independents have done well. That has been the case right across
Ireland. We are seeing it here in Derry today.
And Anne McClusky did well, just in behind McCann. And the other two are
ahead of Gerry Diver. ... I don't think it will stay like that. There
are a number of eliminations to be had. Nobody hit the quotas, that has
impact as well. It is too early to say what is going to happen. As it
is in many other constituencies. We knew this would be a battle for the
last seat. We set out to see off the challenge from Martin McGuinness who
came to Derry. Who said he would get three seats. I don't think that will
happen. You will take pleasure in Martin
McGuinness is moved from mid-Ulster into Foyle and Sinn Fein don't grow
the seat tally, in other words, staying with two, and one of the
previous MLA's lose a seat that would give you considerable
satisfaction? It is not about satisfaction or pleasure, it is
about saying that Martin came here to tell us he would take three
seats, I don't think he will. There was a battle for the last seat. I
don't think it is with Sinn Fein but the independents. That is a factor
that we have seen across the north and the island as the Executive have
not delivered for places like Derry. But the SDLP have done well. They
have been under huge pressure with Martin McGuinness coming back. The
Deputy First Minister, with a huge professional, he has come back to
Derry, we outpolled Sinn Fein. That is a huge success.
OK. We will talk with you in due course. Thank you very much, Collum
Eastwood in the meantime on your election. Mike Nesbitt, the leader
of the Ulster Unionist Party joins us for his count. Congratulations to
you. You talked to the poll in Strangford? Yes, 4673. That was a
quota. It is a bit of a shock. It is also gratifying. Humbling. I am
grateful to the elect rate of Strangford. Not least as the last
time I finished fifth and never made the quota. But that said, Mark, I am
running with a team-mate, Phillip Smith, the second seat was hard won
in 2011. We had a fight to retain it. But as you know in these single
transferrable vote counts there is no certainty in terms of where the
transfer votes go, it will be well into Saturday before we know how the
six seats pan out. So I am saying that I would have been happy to
finish fifth and sixth with Phillip, rather than first and potentially
7th and 8th. It is a complicated seat. Lots of
figures in there having a tilt at the 5th and the 6th vote. But it has
to be a big target seat. You need to recover what was an Ulster Unionist
seat. So you need the two seats to talk about the Ulster Unionistster
Unionist Party resurgence? The growth must be based on the 2011
rather than the 2015. The easiest way to grow in the 16 is to retain
them. Strangford is a big challenge. It was very, very tight the last
time between David McNarry and Joe Boyle. The last time when the Sinn
Fein candidate went out, Joe Boyle got a huge lift. But that was where
he basically stuck. There were no who transfers coming the SDLP's way.
And incrementally as more candidates went out, David McNarry grew his
vote and just made it. In fairness to Joe, on at least three occasions
standing for the Assembly elections, he has come close. He will hit the
crossbar 30 or 40 votes short. I'm sure he will be close to do it this
time. What are you hearing about the other
counts? The other individuals? The other well-knowns in the hunt for a
seat? Is it fairly positive? Do you know, Mark, I was on my way to the
car to listen to radio Ulster when I was nabbed by your people to come in
to do this interview, so you will know better than I do! I don't know
if any of us know the picture. You have a precious envelope that you
and I discussed on television. You wrote down the number of seats you
believed that the party would get at the election. You posted it to
yourself, it is sealed. You promised us to join us and open up the
envelope at some stage, are you still up for that? I am yes. But I
may have been, I was ambitious! OK. Well, the first omission of the day.
Is that going to be tonight, Mike, or tomorrow? I think tomorrow.
OK. Consider yourself booked! I'm staying here for the rest of the
count here today. As soon as the result is declared here tomorrow I
will come up to the BBC as long as the rugby is not on.
Well, we are here from 10. 30am until 1.00pm. You have a seat
booked. We will not miss it for all the tea in Khan! Mike Nesbitt
confirming he will open that envelope on BBC tomorrow. Let's here
from Lisa McAlister -- all the tea in China! Gerry Carroll is with me,
8299 votes. Topping the poll in West Belfast. Was it a surprise? We knew
we would take a seat. Doing well. But the 8,000 votes is a great vote.
I would like to thank everybody in West Belfast who came out to vote
for us. To thank everybody that helped to spread the word and up us
canvass. It is testament to all of the hard work we have done in the
last three years. Standing in five election, three elections and two
years, the vote has gone up each time it is a testament to the hard
work done on the ground. What message do you think that the
voters are sending to Sinn Fein, they were the stronghold for
decades? The message is that they are fed up with the status quo with
the society, with the way that things are going. Fed up with the
poverty. The highest levels here. And the corporations and the tax
cuts, the handouts, receiving handouts where people are getting
cuts. People are losing jobs, benefits slashed. That. And those in
West Belfast looking for an alternative it is a great vote a
fantastic vote it is global phenomena. We are seeing the rise of
Bernie Saunders in America. The radical left in socialist politics.
Thank you very much for talking with us. Congratulations again. We can
hand to Julian O'Neill who has not so much of a success story there.
That's right. One of the first big casualties of
this election, independent Unionist John McAllister who began life as an
Ulster Unionist Party, MLA career now over as an independent Unionist,
what went wrong, John? Well, I suppose in an election not enough
people voted! Was it the party machine or the lack of it in your
case? The lack of party machine. Competing with other big party
machines. That is a problem, getting the message out there. But for me, I
have been an MLA for two terms for nine years. We have over the nine
years had the privilege of helping thousands of constituents with all
kinds of problems. I have had two private members' bills passed. I am
proud of the campaign team that helped to work. I would like to
thank everyone that voted and supported us.
You you leave in opposition, you are not going to a part of Stormont
going forward. Will the place be poorer for independent, lone voices
to be heard in the chamber? I think we need that. People like Gerry
McCann being elected and if the Greens come back. That is important.
Even though I have a legislation through, we look set on how long we
will be to starting again. Our ministers are doing great work but
we knee robust opposition to challenge, scrutinise and provide
the alternative for the voters. You will be able to go back to the
farm, the day job, some may say the real job? Some may say. But it is a
pity that farming is not in great shape either. Milk is bad, beef is
bad, grain prices are bad. But I'm looking forward this year so far
between a very busy Assembly term and election campaign, I am looking
forward to having some time with family and the kids. That is
important. Important to go back to that. But thank you again to
everyone who supported. And everyone who has supported me in the past
nine years. So thank you very much for joining
us. No-one yet making the first quota.
A very difficult day for John McAllister. Let's hear from Alex and
Kathy, Alex, you know John McAllister well and Mike Nesbitt. So
far as far as he is concerned a good day in Strangford.
Very good. John, I have known for many years. A great guy. I think
that the opposition billed one of the most important decisions in the
last 20 years. A big loss. D'you deep down he knew it would require a
miracle. Mike Nesbitt will be happy. Party leader, topping the poll.
The problem is, it is indicated by the response to your envelope
question, all of the evidence coming through, and I have been in contact
with the UUP P, they are admitting privately that they are
underperforming. To 11 was the worst ever election result in terms of the
Assembly. At the minute they are pushing 1. 5%. If they are not
getting the votes he will be hard pushed to come back.
So, for example we have heard that Rodney McKeown is struggling in
South Belfast. You can hear why Mike is saying he will wring in the
envelope but saying he was overall ambitious. If the number in the
envelope is in the '20s, it is not looking like tallying with reality?
Maybe. But what he didn't say in 2011, the Ulster Unionist party is
the most transfer friendly party of all of the main parties. We are in
for the long hall. Until late tomorrow before we have the full
results. We tend to be getting animated about 38, 40, so the
majority of people are elected with transfers and the UUP P gets most
transfers from other parties and gives most transfers to other
parties. That is important. A quick caveat. That rule works if
you are in the 7, 8, 9th position. The U Ulster Unionist Party UP are
down. They may not survive. And how do you think it is shaping
up? It is early. I was interested in the Gerry
Carroll whopping vote. He was so far ahead of the nearest rival stere
Sinn Fein had been trying to set that up. There was a bit of
generalised Gerry Adams doing the people need to make clear their
attitude to violence. He was not pointing at Gerry Carroll, he could
not. That was at independent candidates in general a warning that
people are getting votes from dissidents. One of the things that
Gerry Carroll probably has done. But he has a left-wing vote. That is
significant for Sinn Fein who have messed up so badly in West Belfast.
That is echoed in Foyle. Eamon McCann and Anne McClusky have done
well. There is a fame on the left in terms of the republicanism.
I have heard that Arlene Foster, no surprise, has been surprised. I'm
assuming she topped the poll. I'm not sure but I know she held on to
her seat where she has topped the poll. Not surprised at that. There
is Brian working on a cartoon of Arlene. She is looking quite angry
in that. In the style of Carson, of course! If you are wondering what is
happening with the hand there. It is a default expression. Looking
angry. Not being an angry motorist.
Lots of numbers in for Mark and Nicholas to get their teeth into.
I hope she likes that cartoon, I know from experience when previous
cartoonists came up with caricatures she didn't like, she let them know
about it. Colum Eastwood was saying that Foyle was too early to call.
Shall we try to give him a run for his money? This has been the big
battle between the two nationalist parties. We have the vote share on
the first preference votes. On the face of it, you might think SDLP
will be very happy, they have the biggest share at 30%. Sinn Fein,
Martin McGuinness arriving back home, quite a narrow lead? Very
narrow, both sitting on about 30%. Eamon McCann, and a number of
independents, including Anne McCloskey. Let's look at the change.
You can see that both of the Nationalists are down about 5%. It's
a very interesting. I said earlier that turnout appears to be down
generally in nationalist areas. It looks like the vote is down for
nationalist parties and we are seeing the SDLP in various places.
Even if they don't get elected, where do the votes go to? Martin
McGuinness, very narrowly topping the poll over Colum Eastwood. Who
else would you call, apart from the top two? The DUP are certain Gary
Middelton, enough to put them ahead. I think the SDLP will lose one of
their seats. They go into this with three. Gerard Diver has nowhere near
enough to be elected. They will lose one of their seats to Eamon McCann
or Anne McCloskey. I would have thought Eamon McCann, 700 votes
ahead, I would be surprised if that gap closes. For Sinn Fein, they will
get two in. McLauchlan will be eliminated and her votes will be
sufficient to elect Raymond McCartney. To some extent, it has
paid off, they have taken the SDLP down by one, but they have not made
a game, Martin McGuinness has potentially taken a place. You think
Gerard Diver unlikely to survive? Absolutely. Another key battle
ground has been in south Belfast, a lot of new faces in the field. The
DUP, they held their own with their two new faces, Emma Little Pengelly
and Christopher Stortford. They only had one MLA last time. Let's have a
look at the change in south Belfast, before we look at the personalities.
The DUP actually dropped a percentage on last time. But the
SDLP actually dropping more? It is a vote against established parties to
a certain extent. This is a seat that the SDLP holds at Westminster,
to get only 20% in a seat you have at Westminster, a rocky result. The
story in this election, a big increase in the Green vote. Clare
Bailey, in fifth position, quite possibly getting a seat, one would
imagine some of Anna Lo's vote? I think that is right. The DUP have
balanced well between their candidates. Even though they took a
decrease in the seat, they have delivered two seats, a gain for the
DUP? I'd call it a gain for the Ulster Unionists and a gain for the
Green Party. Fearghal McKinney a high-profile casualties, if he
doesn't survive. Rodney McCune was trying to inherit the seat? Poor
Rodney, his second unsuccessful attempt. Ruth Patterson off the
scale, we thought she might do damage to the DUP, she hasn't. Some
transfer votes have been distributed here. This is the business towards
climbing towards it. She has one transfer on that stage. We still
think that Fearghal McKinney and Rodney McCune losing out. That is
the first breakdown. There is a lot to be talked about as the accounts
go on. The transfer of votes is coming in, but we think it is bad
news for the SDLP in Foyle in South Belfast.
Let's hear from Banbridge Leisure Centre. Dolores Kelly, former deputy
leader of the SDLP. Could be in a bit of a fight for her seat, we
here? Yes, that is right. Dolores said she was in a scrap for her
seat, so how much of a scrap are you in? We will know shortly when the
quota is finalised and the first preference votes are out. I need to
keep ahead of some of the candidates to stay in the race, at least I am
transfer friendly. The transfer got me over the line last time, on this
occasion I have transfers coming in right across the political spectrum.
I think we will be in it to the end. You have been in this position
before, held by 340 seats last time. Not an unusual situation to find
yourself in? But it doesn't make it an enjoyable one. Very difficult. We
put a lot of work in, we had a good reception on the doorstep. One of
the biggest difficulties is turnout. This comes down to tiny margins, as
you have described. The fact there is another candidate also called
Kelly that was for the campaign Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol, do
you think there might be some candidate confusion that might work
against you? I am hoping in terms of transfers, it will rectify itself.
But I do think there might have been a slight confusion. It will be
interesting to see what the first preferences are for that candidate
and see where that comes in. My team are telling me I do have number twos
off that, part of it might be intentional transfer, some might be
people rectify the mistake on the ballot paper. You were angry when I
spoke to you earlier, about the number of tally people in from Sinn
Fein. Explain what the issue was that you have and whether it has
been addressed? There are 17 candidates on the ballot paper and
we were all advised by the electoral office we could have three count
agents. Our election agent, a family member and ourselves. That brought
it up to six people per candidate. All of those have that with the
exception of Sinn Fein. They had 11 count agents each, plus the other
two. They have overwhelmed the town centre. I think it is unfair.
Candidates use it for intelligence, to give an idea of the tally.
Dolores Kelly, thank you. That issue has already been raised with the
electoral office. Thank you very much indeed. Jim Wells, now, joining
me from his count in South Down. You are in there, in third position,
with 5033 first preferences. You are comfortable you will hold onto the
seat? Well, 2000 votes up on the last election, not only with the
size of my vote, that the huge gap between me and the next Unionists.
The DUP have been established as, by far, the strongest Unionist party in
South Down. Can I ask in all seriousness of you would shed a tear
for John McCallister? You have been a constituency colleague, a
different brand of unionism, but it is tough for him today he has been
eliminated? It is. I get on extremely well with John. He's an
easy person to like. His campaign was toxic because he supported gay
marriage and abortion, issues that went down very badly with the
electorate in South Down. Dora Altidore told me well they liked
John and thought he was very able, they could not handle his views on
those issues. Do you think there will be a seat? -- door after door.
Is there a second Unionist seat this time around? There definitely is.
There are almost 13,000 Unionist votes on the table, well over two
quarters. The Unionists have used their brains. The transfer rate
looks like 90%, the highest recorded in Northern Ireland history. That
should carry Harry McCain very easily. I am confident we have
retained the Unionist seats, but with the DUP the strongest? No seat
for the TUV? No, that shocked me, he ran the most extensive and expensive
campaign I have ever seen. Had a huge number of workers, fantastic
literature and posters, but his vote has not gone up since the last
election. That has shocked me and many people in South Down, and also
Henry's team. Good to talk to you, we will presumably find out when the
first number of seats are allocated in due course. You are certainly in
a good position at the moment. Thank you very much indeed. We are here in
Titanic in Belfast. Caroline Kean, you are an accountant, what would
you say to the politicians as they go into the new mandate? Well, for
the next five years, I would like to see quite a bit of change. I would
like to think we would see more of the same, lots of things are going
in our favour. We have the corporation tax cut, and I would
like to see that to be a big focus and an opportunity for maybe a
corporate tax task force are being created to maximise the
opportunities. I think the key thing is to see parties work together in
tandem, rather than the silo approach we might have seen in the
past, making the economy and business the real central focus for
government going forward. We have heard them talking about health and
education, the cuts in budgets. We have heard about the ?1 billion
pledged for health, but we don't know to what detriment of other
departments are going to suffer. We would like to sit down and see in
terms of how the budget is going to be carved out, I can't help but
think we have the economy and business, if we got that right, so
much more would follow on from that. What you think they are doing wrong?
What could they have done differently? In terms of business
support, as we know in Northern Ireland, there is a big dependence
on the public sector. I think to try and grow the public sector, looking
for smaller businesses, enable them to grow and get access to funding,
particularly around exports. We know it is a small market, companies need
to be exporting. I think it is breaking down some of the barriers
and obstacles to help companies. Investment has a big role to play on
that. From an accountancy point of view, you issued a statement
recently criticising how money has been handled? Yes, I believe there
is a lack of long-term financial planning in the public sector. The
evidence is that where there is a lot of discussion about fiscal
deficit in Northern Ireland, nobody seems to have a handle on that. With
corporation tax, exactly what is that going to cost? The Institute
firmly believes that there needs to be an improvement in the long-term
financial planning, same as you would in any business. You would
look up the balance sheet, look at what you own and make forward
planning decisions based on that. It's very difficult for governments
to form a plan because of the nature of only having a certain number of
years to be in government, and they can't take the next term for
granted. How do we compare to other institutions? I suppose the problem
here is that the Finance committee income we get allocated primarily
through the block grant, what that means is that you have an
administration here that is really managing a budget, rather than
having any hand on any fiscal levers. OK, it is getting
corporation tax devolved, but we seek a case for a further devolution
settlement, similar to Scotland, where the Assembly could raise 50%
or 60% of revenues through air passenger duty, income tax and other
taxes. That way, you build more accountability locally. The Assembly
would be genuinely accountable to the electorate for not only the
revenue it raises, but what it spends. Coupled with that, that is
why we are stressing the need for longer term planning, really. That
would need to be in place, they would need to have some kind of
fiscal framework to enable that power and to manage it responsibly.
A familiar face to those in the business community, you are retired
now, but what was your key issue? Was it the skill shortage? Is that
where we fall down? I think so, there was a whole ecosystem in
politics. It is all very well cutting corporation tax and saying
it is the panacea for our problems. For economic development to happen,
you have to have the skills and talent for companies to come in. For
that you need a good education system, particularly higher and
further education, then if you move back into the education system, we
have a lot of things wrong with education here. It is very good at
one end of the scale, but we have chronic underachievement at the
other end of this scale. We need to address that as an important part of
it. We are moving into a new dispensation where we have a
Department for the economy, which I am very happy to see, but what we
need to do is to see all politicians moving in a more collegiate way,
where they work with each other. Department of the economy working
with the Department for Education, and we don't get the silo that were
used to have, and, dare I mention it, contention between certain
departments. I think that needs to go. I'm very keen to see how the
plan for new government pans out. Food for thought for the
politicians. My panel has been replenished. I am
pleased to say. Joined by Martina Anderson of Sinn Fein.
Clare Hannah from the SDLP, and Nigel Dodds, the campaign director,
a director of elections for the DUP. A tremendous responsibility on your
shoulders today? Yes, proud to be the director of elections for the
DUP. And Lord MP, form do you have a
title? I am chairman of the party. You watched Mike Nesbitt. Let's talk
about him. Discussing the envelope, saying he might have been
overambitious in the number he wrote in the secret envelope that he
posted to himself and is going to open on the output either tonight or
tomorrow. That will be embarrassing? I don't know what he has put in it.
He clearly knows, he is beginning to play down people's expectations?
Maybe he posted more than one. Oh, my goodness. I thought I was
cynical for thinking that! A good opening question for tomorrow? I'm
pretty sure he posted one. Are you sure? Absolutely sure.
Right, OK. That is interesting. Let's rewind the last 30 seconds.
So, joking apart. A bit of a struggle in some of the counts? As
you know elections are determined largely by what happened in the
large seats. You must be in with a shout. We had two separate elections
to fight to recover the seats we had lost through defections. Which of
course doesn't count as come par outers as what you are elected the
last time is what you are judged with this time. That is fine. But
the point is to show growth over that. Two separate things to
achieve. You were hoping for a bounce in
South Antrim. It is not looking like you have the bounce. Of the three
candidates, one candidate is in a third position. No a strong
position? Adrian was only in office for nine months. I must say I
thought he proved to be a very effective MLA. But we are not
throwing in any of the seats it is too early. These things go right
down to the end. There are lots of votes to be transferred. We are
still hopeful. OK, Clare Hannah, you are the only candidate at the table.
I am double checking, in case somebody changed seats. But looking
at south Belfast, you are in second spot, 4,516, and the others 5007.
You must be quietly confident you would be successful? I am not there
yet but yes, on the numbers it looks likely I will be elected.
What about your running mate, Feargal McKinney? We don't know yet.
Bearing in mind we have always been tight. Always taking the last seat.
Winning it with as few as 13 votes over the last four or five
elections. So it has been tight. In the 2011 election, the second
candidate was written off at this point. So not gone yet but it is
competitive. 18 candidates, and there were always 10 strongly in the
hunt for the six seats. Overall, as far as the SDLP, talking
to Collum Eastwood a short time ago, he was crowing about the performance
of the party in Foyle, where the SDLP has outpolled Sinn Fein. He was
happy? I'm sure he was not crowing. He is entitled to be pleased.
It is not a pejorative term. We were told that they would smash
the SDLP in our heartland. And while the SDLP third seat is not
guaranteed, the leader of Sinn Fein did try to take the fight to the
back yard and Collum Eastwood has held off. He is entitled to be
pleased. He did beat him in a head to head.
Let's hear from Martina Anderson. You won the beauty contest but maybe
didn't win what counts, which is the overall party standing? I think we
did win counts. Martin McGuinness went to Derry, not to try to take on
the SDLP, nothing could be further than the truth.
What for then? Martin McGuinness has been working two constituencies. He
went from one, took is from Ground Zero to build it up to what it is
now. Martin McGuinness wanted to go in as someone at the heart of
government to go back to his own place. He said yesterday, there
would be him going home at 10.00pm and there would be people waiting
for him to talk about issues. Is that because the two MLAs could
not do the job? Not at all! It is because Martin McGuinness is at the
art of government. He is a joint First Minister. People took the
opportunity as he was in the constituency, obviously, to talk to
him about the issues. That Martin McGuinness did talk to them.
If it was an attempt to take out the SDLP it has not worked as the SDLP
has outpolled Sinn Fein. At no time did Sinn Fein say that was Martin
McGuinness's intention. If not, why did he go back? He
wanted to go home. For an easier ride? He wanted a
focus on Derry, to take it to the place where he took... Was it a
mistake to go to Ulster? No. Of course. It was not a mistake. He
went into mid-Ulster. At that time we had only a few counts. Look at
what we have now. Three people in on the first count, today.
In mid-Ulster? Yes. Martin McGuinness said that was not
where Mid Ulster was. I believe that Martin McGuinness will bring the
same energy and enthusiasm to Derry. What if there is not a return to
Stormont because of Martin McGuinness's return to the home
city? That is possible. You will probably end up with two. Not go to
three. Therefore Martin McGuinness has come in and knocked out one of
his own men. That was a discussion we had. We didn't go into this with
our eyes closed. We went into it as a possibility but
we went in it to win. And if you didn't win... Of course.
It was anything but a master stroke. We were prepared to take the risk to
bring Martin back to Derry to deliver for the people of Derry.
Nigel Dodds, let's talk about your party and the performances.
A few fairly successful, I mean, David Hilditch was the first one. It
looks like you could be good for three. People talking about David
Hilditch as being the one that could lose out but he topped the poll, the
first MLA return. Joanne Bunting has done well. You could be good for
two? Obviously I have been at the Titanic Exhibition Centre this
morning, looking at my own seat of north Belfast where the three DUP
candidates have come in within 500 votes, all of them over 4,000 votes.
The Ulster Unionist has halved. The other parties have gone becomewards.
I think it is significant that we will get the three elected there
easily. East Belfast is looking well. Joanne Bunting, the first time
out to top the poll in East Belfast. The Alliance Party have been pushed
back considerably. South Belfast is also looking good. The Ulster
Unionist candidate seems to have done badly there. I'm not across all
of the detail but it is looking as if we are in with a very good chance
of two in south Belfast. In West Belfast, even the political
opponents are beginning to say there is a chance of Frank McCubery taking
a seat there. The SDLP have performed badly in that seat. This
is early days. A long way to go. But encouraged by the performances in
the first preference count. And Arlene for First Minister? That
is in the hands of the people. You made a play about that in the
campaign? Obviously in terms of the last time out. And Nicholas Whyte
made the point clear. The number of times and other experts to get 38
the last time was a phenomenon alachievement, picking up seats in
the last-minute, the last counts that broke our way. To get anywhere
near that we would be doing well. But certainly people were targeting
East Antrim, north Belfast, East Belfast, saying we would lose seats,
Strangford, the rest of it. At the minute it is looking solid. I am so
thankful to the people who rewarded the Democratic Unionist Party
candidates. I want to congratulate them for fighting an invigorating
campaign. I am hearing that the first count in
West Tyrone is going to a re-count before a declaration is made. That
is interesting. That is why this kind of election can take such a
very long time. And why the 5th and the 6th seats can be a long time.
It is encouraging that we have the first counts reasonably quickly.
How much pressure is under Arlene Foster as the party leader? As we
have discussed before the campaign was hung on her shoulders. That was
either a master stroke or a mistake, we don't know.
Obviously the election outcome will determine that. I don't think that
Arlene is under pressure. Leading from the front. She has been visible
since becoming the First Minister. She is clearly someone who is
popular amongst the population at large. Not just Unionists but across
the board. She has a positive vision for Northern Ireland. And from her
own voting, I am hering that the candidates are in with a first count
on a massive vote, which is a tremendous testament to her
popularity in the country. I looked at Scotland and Nicola
Sturgeon, it was all about her becoming the First Minister, Carwyn
Jones, all of that. When you have someone leading the country, the
biggest party, someone putting forward a positive vision, it is
natural that people respond. People want to see Arlene do well. I think
we are being rewarded for that. Do you think you will get the two at
Fermanagh South Tyrone. But just one at the moment.
Then Michelle guild hue. You will get the two in but you will have to
wait a moment or two. They are slightly below at this
point. I want to bring in Kathy for a quick word. A quick thought on
what you heard. Picking up on Nigel's point about
Arlene for the First Minister. The assembly have looked at the
terminology around the appointment of the First Minister and the first
deputy, the titles, this is not something that will go away as an
issue. We may see the term move to joint First Minister. So it could
back fire. It is in the legislation. The law. It would require
Westminster legislation. But the review committee is in place to
review things like that occurring in the area. We implemented the fresh
start legislation. It was part of the agreement. Some took a full role
in implementing the fresh start. Some want to claim credit for the
parts of it that are not so difficult. But we have had the
negotiation. I am at Westminster a bit. I talk with the government
whips, to many others, there is no prospect of Northern Ireland
legislation on this issue coming forward.
There is no circumstances which the DUP would agree to a change in it.
It was introduced by Westminster edge layings as it was not in the
original 1998 act voted in the agreement that people voted for in
1998. The system for identifying the deputy and First Minister has
changed since 2006. It was deliberately changed. It gives a
huge advantage to the Sinn Fein and the DUP. OK, we will maybe get a
chance to come back to this. There is so much other interesting things
happening. We will bounce around with that. It is early days but the
Stormont benches are slowly becoming populated.
We are built a virtual Assembly chamber inside the BBC studio.
Stormont as you have never or seen or heard it before. It is all very
quiet. In the past hour, as we know, this chamber has been slowly
populated. Who is leading at the moment? The DUP. There they come.
Six MLAs elected. We know Arlene Foster led almost a presidential
campaign. She has six MLAs in including herself. And what the DUP
was to fill that entire bench down to about there. 38 the last time
under Peter Robinson. Remember him. They want as many this time. And as
Mark Carruthers has said, it is early days. To the other side of the
chamber, Sinn Fein. Just behind the DUP with four MLAs. But early days.
We will have to see if they do what they want to do at the minimum to
fill the bench to get up to 30 seats to give them that right of veto.
What about the SDLP? Well, Patsy McGlone is there. Looking lonely
with only one SDLP MLA as we speak. What about the Ulster Unionist?
There is Mike Nesbitt. He is there as we have never seen him before.
From Strangford. One Ulster Unionist. They got 16 the last time
a lot of work to do to fill the benches. The Alliance Party got
eight the last time. One in so far, night-timow lock is back. But will
she have company? Yes, she will. People Before Profit will be there
in the form of Gerry Carroll from West Belfast. So in the scores on
the doors up there. We can see some sort of a pattern is emerging. It is
pretty much what we expected. But it is early days. It was the week of
the Belfast marathon. Tonight is very much a marathon. Not a sprint.
We like a nice marathon. Look at this artwork, the artist is with me.
Brian John Spencer, you make a career out of this, capturing those
moments of the politicians. We have seen this picture already, but talk
us through what you are thinking and how you were inspired? It started
with this, the whole campaign, the DUP has been the Arlene show. All
eyes on her. I did a simple depiction of her, quite often the
ideas come as you do it. I have left blank here, for something witty. It
didn't come. It dawned on me, she is a real defender of the union, so
this came. I think the phrase I have heard, the Norn Iron Lady. A
consummate professional, but really caustic as well, like Thatcher, the
iron Lady, the Norn Iron Lady. Are you going to get it to her, or is it
for your personal collection? The whole thing about being a political
cartoonist is you are meant to provoke the ire of the
establishment. At some of them come after me and say, isn't that
wonderful, isn't that great? Mark Devenport was saying she is not
behind the door about telling a cartoonist she doesn't like their
work. Have you had that experience? Well, everybody knows Ian Knox, and
he has been around for decades. He would always be told off by her, she
was very caustic, because of her big years. She doesn't have big years,
but he draws her with them for some reason. I haven't had a telling off
yet. The whole idea of a cartoonist account of exaggerated. Paul McLean,
you are with us, you are a bookie, give us a flavour of what people
were putting on? The betting on the political action has been more on
the fifth and sixth seats, the independents. The big names are so
short, nobody is interested in betting, there is no value. We have
seen a lot of interest in Foyle for a couple of candidates, Maurice
Devenney, took a lot of money for Anne McCloskey, it seems to be that
customers are interested more in the 20-1 chances that might get the
fifth or sixth seat, rather than the 1-4 big names. You were mentioning
Arlene, the man in the street is not interested in that. It is the big
prices for the independents. We have taken a number of big bets. We took
?1000 on Paula Bradshaw to win his seat, ?1000 on Robin Swann to regain
his seat. Did he but money on himself? I haven't looked at the
CCTV! There will only win ?200 or ?300, maybe they say it has a way of
getting a night away, or a nice coat courtesy of the candidate. Is it a
big night? Much bigger than the national election last year, because
of first past the post, there were so many shoe ins and people knew
they were going to win seats. Because they have five or six seats,
there is a lot more interest. People think, we might have a chance of
getting in there. I would say from this election, the general election
last year, political betting is probably up by 30% or 40%. Thanks
for joining us, Brian, you are staying with us into the evening. We
will see a lot more from you later. For now, Mark Devenport is going to
update us on the figures. I am not a betting man, neither is
Nicholas, that would be unfair! Privileged information. We try to
give people a few tips, but it is too late, right now. Let's go to
Fermanagh, South Tyrone, as the bookmaker was saying, there was no
money to be won on predicting that Arlene Foster would top the poll.
She had a 77.5% turnout. Over 8001st choice votes, pretty impressive for
an election like this. Turnout across Fermanagh is down from last
time. Maybe that shows if the DUP vote held up, in nationalist areas
it was not holding up so well? Part of the pattern we have seen, the
vote down in the West and nationalist seats. Sinn Fein topping
the poll with 40%. Sinn Fein held their own. They have four
candidates? It looked like a risky strategy, but the SDLP vote has
fallen significantly and they are out of the picture. They got that
result to the closest result in the last election. If you were looking
at the Westminster election, you would have got that wrong. Instead,
the swingometer shows... I will hold my hand up, I got this wrong. I
thought they could capitalise on their games in Southampton and
Fermanagh. Their well-known name, Tom Elliott, is on the green benches
in the Commons and not in the fight. Arlene Foster has capitalised. Lagan
Valley, a 47% share. The DUP got four seats, they did very well last
time. Let's look at how things have changed. A big loss from the DUP? It
is, but they balanced their candidates extremely well. The
Ulster Unionists are fighting with me on Twitter about this at the
moment, but I think the DUP have got a good chance. The Unionists need to
regain the Misty Kyd won by Basil McCrea. The Alliance having a tricky
time, but it looks like Trevor Lunn will hang on? That is my sense,
there is not a nationalist sit there, and therefore there will be
nationalist transfers. Robbie Butler likely to take Basil McCrea's seat.
There are optimists around a score, but I am not one of them. Those are
the constituencies there, for now. Reg Empey is with me, we are going
to talk about some of the constituencies and the trends that
are emerging. I was looking at East Londonderry, which is fascinating.
We have another high profile independent in Claire Sugden, who
took over from David McNarry, originally an Ulster Unionist. She
is in a pretty good position. It's not particularly good for the SDLP
candidate, Gerry Mullan, in eighth position at the moment. It is
possible he might not hold onto that seat? I am in the bubble, I have
just come from my own account and cannot get onto your Wi-Fi. It will
be a long day and long night. Nowhere near Hardy last seats
settled, I am sure there will be plenty of transfers. The SDLP was on
the front foot, if it was a fresh start for your party, and a new
leader, you would be in there scrapping over the seat? He has been
the leader for less than six months coming he made it clear that Rome
was not built in a day. Three quarters of the candidates were like
me, first-time Assembly candidates. We have made it clear it will take
time to rebuild, and we have time. Gerry Mullan is an old hand, he has
been around a long time. He is a well-known counsellor? It is not a
cult of youth, but we are rebuilding. If you look up the team
on its way, which will hopefully include Gerry Mullan, we have the
time to rebuild it. We know there is dissatisfaction in politics. At the
moment, some people are not see the SDLP as the alternative. I know from
knocking on doors that people are interested in what he has to say,
and how he says it, but they have not known him well enough for that
to have fully got into their consciousness. We will see there is
independence getting in strongly, and smaller parties. That is
something that is national. Nigel Dodds, you are responsible for the
campaign that was sold on Arlene Foster. East Londonderry, you are
looking pretty good for three seats. You will pretty much hold onto your
three seats. Looking at the initial numbers, as far as East Londonderry
is concerned, you will tell me that is a positive outcome. What you
think people who voted number one for the DUP were voting for? To keep
Martin McGuinness out of the First Minister's job, or voting in the
knowledge, in the sure and certain knowledge, that the DUP is going to
be back in government with Sinn Fein in a fortnight? In terms of East
Londonderry, to keep three unionist seats in these constituencies is a
phenomenal achievement. Especially ensuring that the vote is balanced
correctly between candidates. I want to congratulate the East Londonderry
team, along with the other teams that have done such a phenomenal job
at places like South Antrim and elsewhere. In terms of what people
were voting for, we were out talking to people a lot after Arlene became
First Minister. Me and her went around the country, we have a lot of
meetings and discussed with people what were the concerns. It was clear
that things like education, health, infrastructure, and... That is what
Sinn Fein talked about as well, you both want ?1 billion for health and
you want 50,000 jobs? I am not saying what we talk about is
exclusive to us. But this is what people were talking about and we
reflected that in an early publication of our plan for Northern
Ireland. We went out there very, very early to say that we intended
to be back in government, we wanted to lead that government, we wanted
as many executive seats as possible around the table. People were
pleading with us to take the economy brief, the education and agriculture
brief. People were saying they wanted the DUP to be there, with the
leadership of the executive, because we have proved we can deliver for
people. That has now been reflected in the votes that are being cast by
people across Northern Ireland. Can you see the confusion? In the one
hand, you paint Sinn Fein as the bogeyman, Martin McGuinness in
particular. You pay date scenario where it would be bad for Northern
Ireland if Martin McGuinness was First Minister. On the other hand,
you are clearly working hand in glove with Sinn Fein in government.
You have made no secret that and you have said he will do it again. The
whole thing about Arlene for First Minister was a sham fight? No, it
wasn't. It is important who is the leader of Northern Ireland. Well,
you say that, nobody seems to think that. People make the decision. With
the resources that the BBC and the experts you employ, there will be a
bit of research, as we have done, to ensure that the people's views are
being reflected and that you will understand what people are voting
for. We are clear with what they are voting for. People are voting
positively for the DUP. It is a phenomenal achievement. In the
knowledge you will be in partnership with Sinn Fein?
David Cameron was in government with the Lib Dems, a lot of people said
he would be in government with them afterwards. He fought a campaign on
his own grounds. He went after the Lib Dems ruthlessly, and annihilated
them in some places. He was quite open about going back into a
coalition. We are saying that we want a definite vision for Northern
Ireland, taking Northern Ireland forward as part of the United
Kingdom. We are going to hear a lot less about Martin McGuinness being
to bogeyman from now on, is that the point? Let me finish the point. We
recognise there is no majority will government in Northern Ireland. We
will work with others, but we have a very different vision for Northern
Ireland going forward as part of the United Kingdom compared to Sinn
Fein. Do you think the whole thing was a sham fight? All about getting
the vote out? When we were around the doors, people were looking for a
partnership to be on display. You are not knocking on the same doors?
Of course, that goes without saying. The world and its mother knows,
Nigel, Arlene, all of you here, the thousands of people listening to
this, that the office means it is equal power, equal responsibility,
and Arlene Foster cannot make a decision without getting approval of
Martin McGuinness. That is the reality. It is symbolic... She says
symbol as matters? She says symbol matters. We are saying if it ends up
today, and it is still up in the air, reaching at the hand of
friendship, we have said we will put on display the joint three of that
office and we will have the term joint First Minister. Let's not
forget what was said earlier at the last round of discussion. There will
be a review of this, and a review of the ministerial code, of Irish
language. In terms of the title of office will be under review.
I have held the office of First Minister along are Sheamus McMallon.
Legally it is a totally equal position. You can't send a letter
from the department without both ministers signing the letter and the
mistake was made in 2006 when the government, following St Andrew's
did a side deal behind everybody's back to do this. It has turned the
thing into a fight over a symbolic issue that has no relevance to the
day to day running of government. I've been there. I was the only
person at this table in that office. I may remind you I was the junior
minister. Still in the office. But I can tell you that is the way
it works. If anybody is trying to tell you of a legal or other... We
have to move on. Does it matter a jot now that the elections are upon
us? That is the point? ALL SPEAK AT ONCE
You are getting excuses in there. That is all that it is.
You have to move on and deliver. To play the game according to the rules
in place at this. Those are the rules. Bear with me. I have to Koch
up with the count centres, where interesting things are happening.
Julian Fowler is in West Tyrone. They have broken up all of the
bundles to start counting again. A full re-count of the first
preference votes is under way. We are told that there are 36 ballot
papers unaccounted for. So they are going through them all again to find
them. So some way off a vote. In Fermanagh South Tyrone, Arlene
Foster elected, her excess is being redistributed. Her running mate also
to cross the line fairly shortly. In Ballymena we have had the first
reference results for the North Antrim county. Tight. Four
candidates pulling about 150 votes of each other pull through. The DUP
the highest number of first preference votes. Followed by Jim
alster of the TUV. And then the other two. Those four expected to
push on. An interesting battle for the last two seats. Robin Swan, a
setting MLA. And David McIlveen. All sitting between 3,000 and 3,500
votes. And Katherine Johnson has been eliminated with over 240 votes.
Her votes are being redistributed along with the candidate from the
Conservatives. We should get the next round in pretty soon.
I'm in Bangor. So far three elected. An Ulster
Unionist and a DUP elected in Strangford and a DUP in north down.
The only excitement that may transpire is that we have three
eliminations. Sinn Fein, an independent and a Conservative. They
are watching carefully to see if Joe boil could become the first
nationalist MLA in the area. He tells me he has been trying for 15
years. Each time coming closer to the wire. He will not get a quota in
his own right but he may be the last man standing and hope to get in that
way. In North Down, Alex eastan. He topped the poll massively. Higher
than last year when he topped the poll. He is emotional. It will be
the status quo. As we are expecting three DUP, one Alliance and Steven a
Agnew who polled well who was thought to be vulnerable. But it
looks as though he is doing very well.
No declaration here in Banbridge. The information is based on tallies.
But we think it will be reflected when we get the declaration. In
Newry and Armagh. It is said that William Irwin has topped the poll.
Danny Kennedy has topped the poll, he has a running meat. And these are
based on Sinn Fein tallies, Megan fearan and Cathal O'Hoisin are over
the line. And hopefully over the line. Connor Murphy is under, so the
likelihood is that Sinn Fein will retain the three seats that they
were after. And that is in Newry Armagh. Then the two SDLP
candidates? As I was saying earlier, it looks as if Justin McNulty may be
ahead in that particular race. Connor, thank you very much.
Let's have a look at some of our graphics.
They will illustrate the latest facts and figures for you. The state
of the parties here. Let's see if we can any mate it
tonne the big screen. My guests can take a look and chip
in comments. The DUP with six... Let's look at Strangford... Mike
Nesbitt. Michelle McIlveen there. Two out of six seats there.
The turn out over 50%. There is the share in Strangford.
The DUP is strong. This is the change on 2011. Let's
move on to South Antrim. Where the Ulster Unionist were on the hunt of
the bounce. Paul Girvan is home. This is the
share in South Antrim. This is the change.
That is where we stand at the moment. Let's talk to my guests here
at the moment. We are hearing that David Ford is safe. Was that 7th? We
were hearing he was 7th. I want to pick up on that. We don't have
anyone from the Alliance Party. We were talking about that, Reg. Saying
that David Ford in South Antrim has had a disappointing performance?
3119 sitting in 7th place? I am surprised. He has been the Justice
Minister for five years. He has had the second seat in the executive to
work with. He is never off the television,
never off the radio. I would have expected him to anybody a stronger
position. But it is interesting that eve finance you move next door into
Lagan Valley, they don't seem to have done so well there. Eve no-one
East Belfast, they have two quotas, despite the fact that the main
objective that Ford had admitted was to take the seat vacated by Peter
Robinson that is not going to happen.
Mid Ulster, three Sinn Fein and Patsy McGlone. What is happening
with the DUP in Mid Ulster, Nigel Dodds? Why two candidates running
where there is only one seat? That is a bad example of party
management? Well, let me put it in context. Looking at seats like Newry
Armagh, Foyle and South Down, where the DUP was said to have gone
down, they were under pressure from other unionist, it is clear that in
the seats we have gone up and reinforced our position.
Let me put it in context it is not a simple answer that is why we have to
analyse them and look at them in the broader context. Looking at the
seats we had to look at them to ensure the best way for the votes to
go up. With Mid Ulster we had to ensure there was an intensive
canvass like never before. You didn't need two candidates to do
that? There was party rivalry? If you want to answer the question,
Mark, feel free. Why need me? What we are doing... You are avoiding an
important aspect here? We are doing this successfully across the country
to maximise the DUP vote. We have seen a rise in the seats that we
concentrated on to get the seats. But you will net get a second person
in Mid Ulster? Highly unlikely but the purpose was to improve the vote
and to increase the number one preferences there. We have succeeded
in doing that. I am looking at your colleague, Mr
Storey there in North Antrim. And pulling up the figures for North
Antrim. How did Mirvan do? He do OK in third position. Do you think you
will secure that? Three there will you? Yes, in Northampton? Definitely
three. What is interesting this about this, we are in contention for
the fourth seat there. It is not by any people means impossible to take
four. Phillip Logan is a new candidate. An impressive young man.
He fought a fantastic campaign. We are in the hunt for the fourth seat
but we may not take it. But for the seats, as in Strangford, wherever
possible we should be looking to increase. Looking to contest seats.
Too often parties sit back and safeguard what they have. Other
parties have shown that when you do try to extend yourself and reach out
you can be successful. OK.
Just to speak to Clare Hannah about Strangford, you have had some not
great news in certain constituencies but in Strangford, there has never
been a nationalist MLA. It looks very much as if Joe boil could pick
up the 6th seat? Yes it could and the SDLP is in the hunt for
Fermanagh South Tyrone and South Antrim. I hope so. I ran in that
constituency myself in 2010. We have been close to getting it. I hope
that Joe does do it. It put in a lot of energy. And this is the most
energy gettic campaign in the SDLP. Rome was not built in a day but
putting a score in Strangford is possible. And we are happy to see
it. Martina, you are also there with
your little tablet here, you are getting all kinds of messages from
party workers. What are you hearing at the moment about what might be
about to break as far as Sinn Fein is concerned? Any positive
developments that your attention is drawn to that we may not be hearing?
Or other disasters you may want to share with us. Any disappointments?
No. No. No. Nothing like that. The four candidates in south Tyrone have
polled well. Michelle guild knew getting 6,000-odd.
You have overreached yourself in Fermanagh South Tyrone? Well, you
have to overstretch yourself. Michelle got 6614. We have 4704,
3002. They are all healthy first reference votes.
That came about through default. That was not your choice to run four
candidates. Well... It took three attempts? We
are a democratic party. That is what we do in terms of selection. I think
it was right to take the time and put the effort in that we did to get
Michelle on to the ticket. She has polled over 6500,000. I think that
the people in the constituency and her on party colleague... 6500. And
then looking at Megan Fearon in Newry Armagh there are reports
coming in there of her polling very well, maybe reaching the quota. So
at this moment in time, there is no bad news to report.
Nigel Dodds, that was your phone. Do you have bad news to report? No. No.
That's the good news. Let's hear from Jim Allister, the
TUV leader at his counter. I am just looking at the numbers as far as
North Antrim is concerned. Nobody has actually been elected as yet,
but you are in second position, 4399, a little bit behind the DUP's
Paul Frew. The question is if you can bring your running mate with
you? I think you will find its 5399. Did I say 4000? I have about 400
short of the quota. Yes, 30 votes behind the person that topped the
poll. Gratified that my own personal vote has gone up. Timothy Gaston, my
running mate, has polled almost 2000. Sadly, it is unlikely to be
enough to bring him in with me. I anticipate no change, I think it
will be as we were in terms of the previous make-up. I am disappointed
that we haven't grown it to the point where we would have two,
although it is ups substantially from 11% to 18%. There is little
chance of him winning a seat, as you say. What about elsewhere? You have
said you don't want to be seen as a one-man band, you need to make a
breakthrough in the selection. People have talked about prospects
in East Antrim, East Londonderry, perhaps South Down does not look
like it will happen for Henry Reilly. Are we going to get the
breakthrough, or are you going to continue to be a lone voice in the
naughty corner? While not conceal the fact that I am disappointed.
Henry Reilly has spoken very well in South Down, but it will not be
enough to bring him in. I'm disappointed we have not seen the
growth I would wish for. You know, one has to respect the views of the
electorate, they have an election before them in a concept of
deception, the DUP were running a deceptive campaign, saying, vote DUP
to stops Sinn Fein... Nigel Dodds is saying sour grapes. You got one, you
are not likely to get any more and the DUP seems to be doing well?
Maybe let me finish this sentence and give me that respect. The point
I am making is that a deceptive campaign was run by the DUP that
says vote DUP, keep Sinn Fein out, they never finished the sentence,
which was, then we will bring them in. Martin McGuinness will be
restored as joint First Minister, exercising the powers he would have
exercised no matter who is called First Minister. But that is
democracy, the will of the people? I accept that, but we should be
careful talking about democracy in Northern Ireland, when the people
are not allowed to vote a party out of government and are not allowed to
change their government. I accept that people have voted as they have
voted, but they have also returned me to Stormont, that means they want
a continuance of the effective, authentic voice of opposition that
TUV provides. Maybe now there is more need than ever for that, given
the cabal of DUP and Sinn Fein will rule even stronger. I would say to
the other parties... We have just heard Henry Reilly has been
eliminated in South Down, definitely out of the hunt. Would you like to
be joined by others in the opposition voice? You are not going
to have enough to be in a formal opposition, would you like to see
one at Stormont? I was just about to say that I think other parties like
the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists are now in this situation going to
be treated even more as doormats by the Sinn Fein and DUP coalition.
Therefore, for the sake of their own dignity, there would be far better
forming a proper, effective opposition and mounting a challenge
to the DUP and Sinn Fein cabal. I hope they do that, or they will be
more and more the doormats of this executive. I don't think that is
good for anybody or democracy. Thank you very much. We will talk to you
later this evening or perhaps tomorrow. There were some very nasty
and better things said thereabout fellow unionists by Jim. I have in
front of me... You accused him of sour grapes? Sour grapes is a mild
term compared to words like cabal and that nasty talk. It is not a
pejorative word, is it? I have a clipping from Jim Allister, if I
return to Stormont, if the TV doesn't win any extra seats, that
would be failure in capital letters. -- TUV. Any seats or extra seats?
Extra seats. Coming back as a sole TUV would be acceptable? No, success
would be more than one. He admitted he was bitterly disappointed. You
gave him a good run, he attacked us, so let me say the point. It is
failure in his own terms. He has run a campaign which he is now
campaigning in the 5000 people that voted for the TUV are wonderful
people that know exactly what is going on. Some of your candidates
might be getting the sixth seat on TUV transfers? You need to make me
finish the point, please. Do you not accept that? There will be many
transfers from people. It is up to the people that decide. I don't know
what the relevance of that point is. You are attacking the TUV. Some of
them might also backed the DUP? I'm trying to respond to the attack by
Jim. If you allow me to finish the point, I am making the point that
Jim, please let me finish the point, Jim has said that people that voted
for him are to be credited and all of the rest of it. But everybody
else that voted for the DUP or anybody else that votes to maintain
Stormont, they are all being deceived, an attack on the
electorate, an attack on people exercising their democratic vote. To
go down the road of attacking voters is a very sad day indeed for Jim. He
is a failure by his own admission. I don't imagine you are terribly
surprised by what he said. In interest of balance, let's have
both. Doormats, he has used that phrase before. We will discuss with
the other parties in the two weeks that we will have, whether or not we
go into government and then we will make a decision. We will come back
and he's that out a bit more in due course. I just want to go back to
Tara in the exhibition centre. Getting tetchy in the studio. You
haven't actually be elected yet, but you are 13 votes off the mark. Do
you appeal to wider than the traditional Sinn Fein vote? The main
thing is to congratulate Mr Alistair, we are looking for 13
votes, hopefully we will find them. The Sinn Fein vote in south Belfast
is up 2%. It is the highest ever percentage of the votes that Sinn
Fein has taken in south Belfast. I think it is about building a rainbow
coalition, not just those that are traditional Republicans and
nationalists, but those that represent the gay community, the
Irish community, that want to move Belfast to a brighter and better
place. As far as I am concerned, my proposition to all of those people
was, together, together we can build a shared future and shared society.
I think that was rewarded in the size of the voting. Things are
shaking up a little bit in South Belfast and that is good for
everybody. Belfast needs shaking up. The Assembly needs to have more
change and I hope the election leads to that. You predict a fresh start,
in what way? First of all, there is going to be a lot of young people
that have been returned to the Assembly, new parties. I do believe
those parties that committed, and we all did, they accept that what has
happened until now is not good enough. As you work is not good
enough. The fresh start really needs to mean an urgent stepping up of the
pace of the work of reconciliation and job creation. It all comes down
to jobs. It really means is partnering each other to deliver
that, as Arlene Foster said, a greater premium on consensus than on
conflict. I believe that and will act accordingly. We hear that time
and time again, then it seems to be a bunfight between Sinn Fein and the
DUP that comes up about what is going to be agreed and not agreed? I
think people need to reflect on signing up to the agreement, Sinn
Fein and I believe the DUP are committed to that, I hope the other
parties are as well. What we heard on the doorstep, for me, getting the
biggest ever vote for Sinn Fein in East Belfast, that is for people
like the gay couple that are not able to get married because of the
antiquated laws, Sheila Leire Landa hand, a young Irish speaker whose
language is treated like a non-language. It is for the Roma
community, Muslims and Romanians, sometimes treated as second-class
citizens. The message is, get your act together, step up the pace of
change. When you hear it from me, it is my commitment and my pledge. You
did not mention the pro-choice or pro-life argument, do you think that
is where your party is behind the curve? I don't think so. When you
reflect on the fact that a priest spoke in a language that was
ill-advised to one of my female canvassers, I think the church has
to realise they cannot preach to politicians. I only received two
e-mails in my entire Assembly career from the Palace of the bishop, both
were about moral issues, social issues, gay marriage, the crucial
issue of abortion. What I would say to those that try to push back on
this issue is let's have a compassionate approach to gay
marriage and to the issue of abortion. In cases of sexual crime,
Sinn Fein are saying that those women that have been subject to
sexual crime and wish to have an abortion should have that choice, in
his beetle Abner Mark -- in faetal as well -- foetus abnormality as
well. I think this is a good position and one that we will
defend. The constituency is changing. I think we can see
pictures of Anna Lo. What do you think is the difference, if somebody
is elected, bringing a Green Party member into the Assembly, what
difference will it make? For people like myself who want a rainbow
coalition, there are not enough people of colour, not enough gay
people and not enough women. Anybody that wants to sign up for radical
change, how we approach constituents and respect the people that make up
the electorate, I am with them on that. These are fresh, strong
voices. There are fresh voices for Sinn Fein as well. I know my
colleagues in Mid Ulster were returned. Let's see what the new
Stormont looks like. Let's sign up for not just a fresh start in
rhetoric, but in action. Thank you very much indeed, I am sure you will
be elected if there is only 30 votes in it.
Interesting to hear what Mairtin O Muilleoir had to say. Let's have a
word with my guests around the table. We have not heard from Claire
for a moment or two. Let's talk about South Belfast. Not returned
just yet. We do not have a formal declaration as far south Belfast is
concerned. I wanted to talk about Clare Bailey, the other Claire in
the race, and we have seen a mixed bag as far as the smaller parties
are concerned, is doing quite well. Steven Agnew did well in North Down.
Jim Allister did well, John McCallister is out, Claire Sugden
seems to be doing well. What do you read into the fact that we could
potentially have been looking at two greens in Stormont? I'm very
disappointed about John McCallister. I think anybody that has worked with
him will say he will be a big loss to the Assembly as a whole. He is a
forward-thinking guy that works well with people. I think that is
disappointing for him. It has been a good day for the Greens. I
anticipated both Steven Agnew and Clare Bailey polling well. I knew
from being in the trenches that they ran an excellent campaign. It is
probably, not to do them down, probably a similar factor as has
seen Gerry Carroll collected in west Belfast, and Aidan McCann polling
well. People are dissatisfied with business as usual politics. It is
similar to the Jeremy Corbyn effect, the Bernie Sanders effect. It is
probably a plague on all of your houses, all the more established
parties. That is not to diminish the candidates and the fact they might
have addressed issues the other parties were not talking about.
South Belfast has always been a very diverse, youthful electorate and has
always come over the years, thrown up interesting results. It elected
the Women's Coalition in two elections as well, there has always
been a semi-independent vote. Some pictures from Bali -- a la Nina. One
of the DUP candidates, the finance minister most recently. Ian Paisley
Jr, the MP for North Antrim. Doing some number crunching. The other
thing, you are not in Stormont any more, but we have the possibility of
People Before Profit, Gerry Carroll, maybe Eamon McCann, maybe Doctor
Anne McCloskey as well. What kind of impact you think those voices will
have on day-to-day business in Stormont? I think there will have
more in common with people before profit than the SDLP. Gerry Carroll
has possibly caused you to lose the seat? We took five of the six seats
in West Belfast. Everybody at that time told me it was going to be
impossible to take them. We knew it was going to be a big ask. But fair
play to Gerry, he has topped the poll and I congratulate him. We have
over 20,000 votes in West Belfast. That is remarkable by anyone's
standards. But I would say that, if it works out as you have outlined,
that we would work very hard with People Before Profit in that, for
instance, things that came before the Assembly in the past like
marriage equality, I think we would not see... But they are so critical
Sinn Fein, a lot of people regard the rise of People Before Profit as
a protest vote against Sinn Fein? In places like Foyle and west Belfast?
We are all critical of each other. If not, we would all be in the one
party. We do have different ideaologies. Different position but
there is common ground as well. You know very well that Gerry
Carroll and others were tapping into a disenchantment into
socio-economically deprived parts of Northern Ireland as people believed
Sinn Fein ruled over on welfare reform. That is how they have done
so well. How do you regard them as better allies than the SDLP? If you
let me finish, without your assessment of it, as that is the
only view... That is a view. He was tapping into disenchantment
across the board. We are dealing with a situation in West Belfast, it
was said earlier, it may be the SDLP that loose a seat, we may lose a
seat. Everyone is in there for the taking. But that said, I'm only
trying to respond to you. There is a lot of issues that we have common
ground on. We work closely with People Before Profit in the 26
counties. I believed we have worked closely with them on social economic
issues and that will be built upon if it is the situation where one or
more of them are elected and find themselves in the Assembly.
How do you regard that, that People Before Profit are comfortable bed
fellows? Ironically, they are very much. Singing from the same himself
sheet down south where it is against everything and diagnosing the
problem in the south it is oppositional. It is almost neither
here nor there. We are still counting. But the fact that Sinn
Fein wouldn't dream, would not go near government... That is what we
said... Sure... We told them that, stood over that, stood on the record
north and south. Said we would go to government in the north. We will be.
We won't be propping up feigna fall and feigna gale in the south... They
are saying similar things down south it is, I believe, diagnosing the
problem, rather than suggesting solutions. Alex Attwood is
struggling on counts. Alex at wood does seriously detailed work. He
more or less single handedly reformed the police force. He does
detailed work on victims. That does not always fit in a tweet or a
placard but he does serious work. Hopefully that is remembered by
people going down the ballot. Let's press the pause but the on to
hear from our reporters on the ground. Let's hear from Will Leech
from Newton Abbey. What is happening? We have two MLAs
elected. Four candidates eliminated. Hilditch and then the Laura particle
Ewing has gone, all eyes are turning to the Alliance. This is a seat
where Mr Ford has come through. In perhaps the 4th or the 5 count. So
he is sitting about 1300 seats under the quota. It would abfoolish person
to write him off. He knows his sums. He is telling us how he is going to
do in. That is who people are talking about. That is who they are
watching. Lots more drama to come from Newtownabbey.
Here at the Foyle Arena the count is continuing for Foyle and East
Londonderry. The story of the day is Eamon McCann. A very impressive
first preference. He is continuing to get transfers. The independent
doctor, Anne McClusky doing well. Could Eamon McCann be elected? He
has been trying for 15 years it could be the case that McCann is the
Man. A slogan he has used. The money is on the 73-year-old taking a seat
in Stormont for a first time. A high-profile campaigner on lots of
issues, jobs, investment in the north-west. Upgrading of the rails.
So will he be elected? A lot of the political parties predicting he may
well do. It is still early days, we will have to see how it pans out.
But looking good for Eamon McCann as we stand at the moment.
In Lagan Valley, the DUP a little bit of a sweat on. Going into the
election, this being one of their strongholds with four seats. But
many are now openly talking about them only retaining three seats with
Jonathan Craig, perhaps to be missing out. If he does, it
represents a gain for the Ulster Unionist. They are looking to take
basil McRae's seats but a seat from the DUP. It must be stressed no-one
has crossed the line in Lagan Valley. Paul Given of the DUP topped
the poll after the first round of preference votes. No-one has quota.
No-one is deemed elected in South Down. The other count going on in
Lisbon. Most likely, we are looking at two S is S and two Sinn Fein. Jim
Wells polled well after a poor Westminster showing. Looking like he
will be elected so the 6th seat going to another unionist. We know
that John McAllister has been eliminated, he was an independent.
Many are talking about that going to the Ulster Unionist, Harold McKee.
Thank you very much. Julian O'Neill there and good to get
a round up. Hoping to speak to David Ford in the
not too distant future. And in the meantime, I'm not sure if you have
picked up bits and pieces and facts as we have been talking? We were
having the general discussion about the shape of the government here,
what it looks like after the election.
No huge surprise, I don't think? Well, the fact is that it will be
who is in it, basically. Will the Ulster Unionist be in it,
Reg? We have made it clear. To fresh a change in the law five years ago
which happened. Whereby, instead of the first and deputy first ministers
identified in a week. There is a fortnight in which the parties can
sit and decide whether or not they could agree on a programme for
government. I think that is a sensible way to do things. The
previous arrangements were you went straight in, you were in the seal
urics then the Executive drafted a programme for government, about 100
pages. I think it is more sensible to do it quickly, in a fortnight.
See if you can get agreement. See if you can satisfy yourself that
everybody is prepared to implement. If one is not satisfied with it, it
is legitimate, at least now there is an opposition to go into, should
that be the decision of a party, to be entitled to a seat. Given the
fact that a problem here is the underperformance, sadly, of
Stormont, when we have our own government with powers and
everything at their disposal, we are still not hitting the right note in
a lot of the policy areas like health and the economy. I think if
we can get people focussed on those things. Elections come and go but
the government must continue. We have seen a shot of Jonathan Bell
in fifth position and Nigel Dodd comfortably the third DUP, it looks
like it in Strangford. Can I ask you picking up on what Reg was talking
about, would you be happier with a five-party coalition or relaxed to
have for example, the Ulster Unionist, the SDLP and possibly the
Alliance Party in a formal opposition? If you could choose,
which would you choose? Well it is not my choice. That is the point.
No but let's pretend. I am curious what you would think.
It is their choice. But obviously people put themselves forward for
election. They decide not to take part in government, even though they
could do that, you know, that is their decision. The electorate will
judge them on it. I think we should try as much as possible to have
people working together. We have been in the executive for six months
without the Ulster Unionist there. The people have spoken strongly.
They see a relevance. I think that people going into the next three
years with no elections, it is up for the party to decide. I am easy.
I think we should work together as much as possible. But if people
don't want to do it, that is up to themselves. In terms of the election
result, talking about Belfast, for instance. We were talking about
south Belfast, I wanted to highlight, the DUP have put in a
strong performance in south Belfast it looks as if, without jumping
ahead too far but it looks as if Emma Little Pengelly and start ford
could get elected and a good chance in West Belfast and then the push
back against the Alliance Party in East Belfast. It is a remarkable
achievement for the DUP with the return of Naomi Long, and Joanne
Bunting, and for the party to have performed as well as it did. It has
confounded the critics. And in north Belfast, to have done well to take
three out of three seats. So in Belfast, we are very happy with how
things have gone. In a city where previously we were told to be under
pressure. Thank you. Interestingly, we are joined by the Alliance Party
leader David Ford. He is at his count in Newtownabbey for South
Antrim. Thank you very much for joining us. I wanted to pick up on
what Nigel Dodds was talking about. Naomi Long is back. He think it is
is a good performance by the DUP that Joanne Bunting topped the poll.
Describing it as a push backagainst the Alliance Party in the East
Belfast. Are you feeling that? When your own count you don't know what
is happening everywhere else. Naomi Long was elected on stage one.
Clearly an excellent result, given we were seeking avoiding but we are
in contention in a number of places for gains. It seems that all ofs
seats we had are safe. That is progress for the Alliance Party.
You may be uncomfortable in south Belfast. It is not going perhaps as
well as you had hoped. I don't know if you will get the three seats in
East Belfast. What about yourself? You are in 7th position? You are
behind the times. I am in 5th place. In 2003 irstarted off 900 votes
behind somebody who claimed victory, at the end of stage 11 I beat him.
Aam used to being around, picking up the transfers. I'm safely in
position to take one of the seats in South Antrim for the fifth time. OK.
I see that has moved on a bit. So you are fairly comfortable.
Where are you uncomfortable, or were you uncomfortable, given the
experience in 2003? It was expected? Some people think around the table
you have a high-profile, that they thought you may have been further up
there in terms of first preferences? As the Justice Minister you spend a
lot of time in the Department of Justice and less time to be at
community events in the constituency or on the doorsteps meeting people.
There are difficulties with that. I believe I have done my job as the
Justice Minister to the best of my abilities. Perhaps others have had
more chance to be out and about in south Antrim. That is why I maybe
did not do as well as expected but looking safe at the moment.
Do you think that the Alliance Party will have enough M LAs to be
entitled to a position in the executive? It is early I days to see
the figure. It depends on the balance between the parties of the
numbers. I suspect that we will not know the final numbers in some
constituencies until tomorrow afternoon. So it is difficult to
tell where we will be exactly to get into a discussion about this. Or
looking back if we can agree the kind of programme that must be
implemented for us to provide a Justice Minister. There is work to
be done. We will see how the figures are.
Just to get Nigel Dodds to respond. What do you think?
Would an alliance be perfectly fine from a DUP point of view? We haven't
discussed that at all. We will need to meet after the elections and
discuss all of that, even our own choices, the orders, as you said, we
have pressured to take a lot of departments ourselves, but we would
not be as presumptuous as to start picking them, we need to see what
the order of choices are. We would consider the Justice Department. You
have not had meetings with representatives of the DUP over the
last couple of weeks? I think there has been a certain amount of idle
gossip. What you might describe as proper negotiations, no. What did
happen in 2010, before I took the Justice Department, is that we had
agreement from Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness around the
programme that would be added to the programme for government to bring
justice in do that. I believe that has proved to be a success. It was
an agreement we got from those two parties that enabled me to do the
job for the last six years. I think it is interesting that as an example
of what will now be carried forward into the discussions next week and
onwards, as we put together a complete programme for government. I
think we set the Trail forgetting that joined up government in the
first place. I want to bring in Martina Anderson. Would you be
relaxed to see another alliance Justice Minister, or would you
rather get your hands on that position yourself? To be honest, we
have been lobbied almost by every sector, to take almost every
department including justice. At this moment in time, what we want to
do is look up the framework for the programme for government, and we
haven't actually decided yet, because we are going to wait until
after the elections, see how many seats we have and what that
qualifies as for. I'm not going to commit the party one way or another,
other than to say that we are before taking on whatever ministry is
presented to us and we have been lobbied from a cross-section of
people to take on almost every department. David Ford, he helps you
out of a hole last time, he put his hand up and took on a difficult job,
but he's not going to get any credit from Sinn Fein? Not at all, I
acknowledge the fact at that time, that is what needed to happen. Fair
play to Alliance for doing that. I acknowledge the fact that is where
we found ourselves, to get policing and justice transferred. Let's not
forget, society was told it would never, ever happen. And we did. The
good thing is that it has happened, it has been transferred and now we
need to see about how intense transformation we can take that
forward. David Ford, fair play to you for putting your hand at last
time around, says Martina Anderson. I think it is fair to characterise
the response of the DUP and The Alliance Party as lukewarm,
certainly not settled, that it is a given that The Alliance Party would
be the first in line for the DOJ next time round. Does that
disappoint you a little, even on a personal level? I would not expect
people in other parties to say we are desperate to give the Alliance
Party the job, particularly in an election interview at the time of
the count. The important thing is to make sure there is a process for
government agreed. If people feel that The Alliance Party is the right
one to carry it forward, we would have serious discussions about it.
We're not giving a commitment, six years ago we got agreement around
the programme for the Justice Department. We have an agreement, in
fairness to the DUP and Sinn Fein, has been delivered by them, when
they signed up to what we suggested. That's the important thing to carry
forward. It is called joined up government, parties working together
for the good of Northern Ireland. We are keen to play a part in that. But
we are not the people that will decide, finally, if such a job comes
to alliance or not. You had eight seats last time around, he said you
thought you could pick up another sex, what are the chances of you
going back with 14? Are you still optimistic? -- pick up another six.
We said we were looking at potential gains, a couple would get us into
the lucky dip, and that would be a key issue. We may or may not get
there. What we see is that we are in with a shout for two or three gains
still, and we would have to see how that works out. Thanks, I am sure we
will speak to you again in due course. Let's leave the panel for a
moment or two and go back to Lisa McAlister at the Titanic Exhibition
Centre in Belfast. In the last few minutes, Alex Maskey was elected as
the second MLA for West Belfast. Didn't top the poll this time
around. Was not a surprise? No, Sinn Fein topped the poll, it is known
that we will have a number of elected MLAs in West Belfast. It is
the first of a number of clues that will be elected through the day. I
want to thank the people of West Belfast for honouring Sinn Fein and
those that have been privileged to be put forward as candidates. Gerry
Carroll from People Before Profit got over 8001st choice votes, that
has to be a message to Sinn Fein? First, I want to congratulate him
for winning the seat and congratulate all voters that voted
for candidates in West Belfast. I will respect his mandate, as
hopefully he will respect the Sinn Fein mandate, which will return a
number of MLAs. Just remember, Sinn Fein continues to top the poll in
West Belfast. It is not just about topping the poll, it is what you can
do for the community. West Belfast is a tremendous community. Anybody
elected for that community has an honour to be elected and a
significant obligation to work for the community. I want to hear less
people decrying West Belfast, knocking it down, telling all of the
negative stories about West Belfast. It is a community that has defended
itself over many decades of difficult circumstances. It is a
community on the rise. Every sector in that community, the education,
family, the Irish language community, the sporting fraternity,
and I would have to single out the GLA, they are so involved with such
energy and passion for the community. I want to see all
representatives supporting those endeavours, not decrying them. There
is a chance that Sinn Fein will not get the five MLA seats in West
Belfast. That has to be a message from voters to your party? Remember,
we were retained in a previous Assembly election with four MLAs. We
came back with five. We still have the MP, we have several councillors,
all of whom are working hard and delivering on the ground. That is
why Sinn Fein continues to top the poll in West Belfast, because the
Sinn Fein representatives and activists on the ground are working
day in, day out for the community. That was paid back to us by the
community. No person in West Belfast is a clone, no person is stupid.
People in West Belfast are voting for the party they know is
delivering for them and working with them on a daily basis. Not only in a
socioeconomic issue, but on the journey towards Irish reunification.
Sinn Fein, a Northern Ireland party that want Irish unity, independence,
and work with people day in, day out. I'm proud to be part of the
community in West Belfast and privileged to be a representative.
Sinn Fein topping the poll in West Belfast will deliver for the people
in West Belfast. I hope all of the representatives, and I congratulate
all of them, I hope they have the same positive work ethic as Sinn
Fein. OK, thank you for talking to us this afternoon. To recap, at the
Titanic Exhibition Centre, we have two MLAs selected in East Belfast
Joanne Bunting, Naomi Long, Jerry Kelly in north Belfast, as well as
Alex Maskey, and we have heard from Gerry Carroll in West Belfast.
We're hearing from Alex Maskey, he is pleased to be elected, we know
Gerry Carroll is in. We don't know who is going to lose out. You think
it might be the SDLP and Alex Attwood? Yes, he is sitting in
second last place of the seven remaining candidates, with 3400
votes and the quote is 5100. He has two thirds of a quote and that is
not enough. The political guests were talking about the make-up of
the executive. The SDLP is looking potentially at four losses, which
would take them down to ten. That could put them out of contention for
a ministerial seat? It is very close. It will it will depend on the
DUP and Sinn Fein, if they can make 40, both of those are in the realm
of possibility. That could be sufficient to push the SDLP out. We
can still see Alliance, even if the Justice minister makes no gains?
Possibly the SDLP out? That would be a turn-up for the books. I think in
theory anything can happen, but I think we know what will. A
constituency where the SDLP appears to be in trouble, East Londonderry,
a tale of friends. The DUP's Gregory Campbell is not in the race, neither
is John Dallat. We see the DUP topping the poll in terms of share.
Despite the loss of Gregory Campbell, they more or less
plateaued. The SDLP, the loss of John Dallat has hit them hard? One
would almost think SDLP voters were shifting to Claire Sugden, the
replacement of David McCourty, the former Ulster Unionist. If we see
some of these stages, we can see Maurice Bradley, George Robinson, a
strong position for the DUP. Caoimhe Archibald will be the new MLA for
Sinn Fein. Claire Sugden, holding against the odds. Caral Ni Chuilin.
Jerry Sugden just behind. We can't call it? I think we can, The
Alliance Party transfers, I cannot see where the SDLP would get the
votes to keep that seat. Claire Sugden is quite transfer friendly.
She is getting 218 votes. Here is the swing we have just shown, with
Sinn Fein making hay because of John Dallat retiring and Gerry Mullan in
the race. A 3% swing. Let's cross to South Down. This was very newsworthy
in the last election. Two MLAs each for the SDLP and Sinn Fein. It was
an SDLP heartland. They are very close, the nationalist parties? I
make it 160 votes between them, very tight. The change, SDLP losing out,
Sinn Fein gaining. This is maybe deceptive, the TUV were not in the
race last time so that is all down as a gain? It is up 1% from last
time. We look at some of the names in the fray. This was the
constituency where John McCallister lost out.
Jim Wells held up very well. He didn't have half of the dramas he
had last year. He is complaining to me on Twitter that he has a bit of a
difficulty in the electoral count centre, his disabled wife has not
been allowed in and he is very angry about that. While Sinn Fein is
ahead, we think that Harold McKee is going to come through with those
various Unionists? It has been a seat, in a good year for
nationalists, there should be a gain for unionists in this seat and it is
not happening. There are enough unionist votes there. Look at John
McCallister, we must count him as likely to return to his former
party. Harold McKee must overtake them. The Ulster Unionists in South
Down. We will win through a few extra. You can see Harold McKee
getting transfers. 331, he gets. They are regaining the seat they
lost because of John McCallister's defection? The Ulster Unionists have
picked up both of the defection gains, that seems probable, from
NI21. I think the jury is out in Strangford and Lagan Valley. They
have not regained East Londonderry. Back to you, Mark.
Thank you very much. We have replenished our panel and let me
introduce them to you quickly, and then we will have a word with Ian
Paisley Jr, who is up at his count with his colleagues in Ballymena.
Nyla Donoghue from Sinn Fein has joined me. I don't know how to
address you, councillor Senator, Senator counsellor? Either! You will
have to give up that seat? That is my understanding. You haven't been
down? I have was down last year, I need to keep an eye on the numbers.
It is good to see all of you. Before we discuss some of the issue is
unfolding, I want to talk to Ian Paisley, the MP for North Antrim, up
there with his colleagues. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Can you
hear me? You have come upon my screen. We saw some shots of you in
detailed discussion, hushed discussion, it looked like, with
conspiratorial, you and Mervyn Storey and a couple of others, what
were you talking about? Has been a very satisfactory day at the office,
if I can put it like that. 43% plus of the vote, 50% of the seats, much
as we were last time around, consolidated very strongly in a
heartland position. As a member of Parliament, I'm very proud of the
team, canvassers, and I must congratulate the staff, they have
done an excellent job. They seem to be ahead of schedule. How many of
the four candidates that you are running would be successful? You
have three last time round, pushing for four, some people thought that
maybe overambitious. At the moment, I am right in saying, think, David
McIlveen, and outgoing MLA, is behind the new man, Phillip Logan.
Could you have a casualty? You might have overreached yourself? We ran
four candidates the last time. We were about 200 votes out in real
terms trying to get that. We have a position this year that we have run
for again. It is hard to see us winning the fourth seat, depending
on transfers, and we don't know how they will go at this stage. There
could be a slip-up elsewhere. But I accept that it's probably unlikely.
To hold the three seats will be excellent and we want to keep
building on that. But you always have to keep striving for more and
that is what we have tried to do. In terms of personalities and
personnel, we always said what was important is policies. We have to
make sure the consistent view in the policy of the party goes forward
and, if there is a change in personnel, that is a very sad thing
for the individuals concerned, but we have to make sure the party comes
first. Does it look like David McIlveen is
the casualty? Is it bad vote management? Phillip Logan was maybe
the one taking a punt if he goes in ahead of David music ill vin, it
looks odd, doesn't it? It is ultimately up to the voters, of
course. We try to manage the constituency as best as we can. If
those things happen, they happen. But it is at the moment about 2-300
votes in it. We have not got tonne the serious transfers of our
unionist parties which will come a little later on in the stage it is
that point where we start to have a clear view of who the ultimate seat
winner will be. But that is the issue of elections. People put
themselves up, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.
A quick word about Jim alster, the TUV leader. I'm not sure if you
describe him as your nemesis. He is home. He is comfortable. But it
doesn't look like, well, he is not bringing his running meat, Tim Olsty
Gaston with him. Do you allow yourself a quiet smile about that?
Is that part of the bus news as far as the DUP is concerned? I can tell
you as Jim alster said to you, if he did not get more than one over the
line it would be a failure, so today out of his mouth, he has condemned
himself as a failure. I didn't say it, he did.
OK. Thank you very much indeed for joining us. Good to hear your
thoughts. Rick Willford Nicholas Whyte, Ian pace Paisley is a former
student of yours at university many years ago, yes, and so was I!
Interesting. He is happy to make that a public
smile. No love lost between the DUP and the TUV and the Paisleys and Jim
alster? No. Is that a failure? Nigeria eel Dodds made the point,
Ian has made it again? Well, they are OK to do it. He said it himself
it was a measure of his success. One would be a failure. It is. The DUP
held up the market well. They may loose the out seat here and there
but also pick it up. There was a shuffling, a challenge,
coming from the frame of the unionist votes, so much, I think
that with Sinn Fein from the left, from the anti-Australia stairity
candidates in particular, the SDLP, at the moment, I don't think they
will get the second seat in south Belfast. And to be gloomy about
this, as far as the SDLP is concerned, I wonder if they will
have enough to qualify for the Expect I have. That will be would be
a slap in the face with a wet fish. But it is looking difficult for
them. It is hard to sell or package that
in any way as a successful election? Equally, Mike Nesbitt, I don't know
how many envelopes he posted himself or whether they were colour-coded.
Interesting that Lord Empey said that himself.
Yes. But I think that they will be where they started at 16.
At 16? Yes. Given he has talked about the electoral cycle, that this
is the last part in the first cycle, if they end up exactly where they
are in 2016 where they were in 2011, the momentum he was claiming in the
Westminster and the government elections has come to a gianting
halt. But there were many people, I was
among them, perhaps he was overclaiming his resurgence. He
didn't want any of that. I think that it has been described
he was Mr 70 the %. That was their increase in the share of the
government elections. They had a famous victory last year. But this,
the moment, this suggests that has come to a bit of a juddering halt.
Let's talk about the fortunes of the Alliance Party as we discern them so
far. Is it a bit of a mixed bag? Well, obviously many of the seats
are to be declared. We are looking good to hold all eight of our seats
it is interesting to note that over the past 18 years the Alliance is
perhaps the only party not to have lost an Assembly seat. So in a good
position. Obviously we have ambitions to gain, that is not quite
coming to pass as things stand. But bearing in mind what is happening to
many of the parties you may place on the electoral spectrum either side
of us, we are doing well to hold our own and indeed getting an increased
vote in places like east Belfast and South Down.
I keep hearing time and again, we heard it during the generation 2016
debate, young people voting for the first time. They say that there are
no parties we want to vote for. That they are tired of the same old same
old, tired of orange and green, tired of Sinn Fein versus the DUP.
Your party said and Naomi Long and others have made the point, look at
the Alliance Party to. Support them, that they are trying to break the
mould... It doesn't happen? Election after election it doesn't happen? It
is a challenge for all of the parties. Not just in Northern
Ireland but around the world in how they engage with the young people.
On the left, there is a growth in a number of voices. I would anticipate
that the vote is heavily excused to young people. There is a challenge
in how to engage with that. That is not unique, we are seeing it in the
United States, with the Bernie Sanders situation. And with what is
happening in Great Britain and in the south of Ireland and the
European Union as well, we are seeing the break down of traditional
politics. That is a story of the election itself. But in that context
we are holding our own. We are by far the strongest and most
progressive voice in the Assembly. When you draw Bernie Sanders into
the equation, he has been successful in recruiting voting from young
people. And on Tuesday evening, we had a young chap who looked at the
five candidates, including your leader, who said, we are clearly
young people and not the target audience for those political leaders
there. Was a real sense of disengagement and disaffection
amongst the first time voters with what passes for the political
establishment in Northern Ireland. I would like to bring in Niall
O'Donnghaile from the Sinn Fein. You are happy with where you are but you
have been outpolled by the SDLP in Foyle and thumbed by People Before
Profit in West Belfast, a remarkable performance by Gerry Carroll? I
resent the fact that we are saying that people that vote for any of the
parties that don't vote on the issues that are important to them.
People vote on the basis of social issue, political and ideological. We
do a disservice when we do dismiss their issues. This is not a great
surprise, we have set out retaining five seats, we are still in the mix.
Martina, and others are doing very well. So, steady the ship goes so
far, Mark. But, Sinn Fein's line often at times, is that they speak
up for the dispossessed, provide a voice for the people that don't have
a voice, that you speak for young people, against the status quo,
against the establishment. But it seems in certain constituencies
people have opted for Eamon McCann and Carroll, it must be a little bit
embarrassing? That is why we have elections.
It is clear that young people, more older people, people firmly on the
left, people from a diverse background have voted for Sinn Fein.
Each may at that take a seat off Sinn Fein, may prevent you getting a
third seat, may take a seat from West Belfast? That may be the case
but we are still firmly in the doors. We will keep an aeye on it.
Mick, what do you make of the apparent rise of People Before
Profit? It is looking good for Eamon McCann at the age of 73, after 15
years of trying? It is. There is a support for a left of centre,
anti-Australia stairity grouping within Northern Ireland. But it is
small. For Sinn Fein in particular, this must be really painful. To be
outflanked in West Belfast by People Before Profit candidate.
You cannot be otherwise. I was being told, I mean, you hear
all sorts of rumours but there was talk of some candidates knocking on
doors to make them the second choice, as it was a given that Gerry
Carroll was going to win. It is clear he has a vote.
I know, I understand. We don't engage on that base. We are a
political rat visit. We are out for five to retain five
that is still possible. OK. Let's bring in Clare and Nigel.
A word about People Before Profit it does not have impact really on the
SDLP? We spoke about it earlier. It shows there that something is not
delivering. The deprivation that pass persisted there, there is a
feeling that some roles are locked out. But people feel that issues are
not being spokenen about that they connect with.
And Clare another person you could lose out to is your candidate
Attwood? I don't believe he will. He is in a fight. We have a system
for a reason. People are supposed to attract transfers from across the
board. Alex is in a good position because
of the decades of the good work he has put in.
There is a mixture of small parties doing well. The People Before
Profit, the Greens. Looking for two seats, maybe more. We have lost John
music alster. TUV has not grown, it seems it is an uneven picture? It
is. Even in Belfast where People Before Profit ran a vigorous
campaign but did not impact on West Belfast where they had similar
issues. It did not materialise to the extent that some imagined. But
you are right, looking at Ukip and TUV and even the PUP in Belfast, not
anywhere near what some were predicting that they might do a
short time ago. Others on the left, the Australia stairity parties that
have down well in the southern Irish politics seem to be making a break
through here. But we have to get it to the perspective, looking at the
Shankhill Road, fast-track McCubery, the DUP candidate has recorded a
substantial vote. The idea that all of the main stream parties are out
of touch with the working class scorns a very, very black and white,
bunt, unsophisticated way of looking at things. There are parties in the
main stream in terms of numbers that are working on the ground like the
DUP, in places like the Shankill. Reflected in the massive vote in
north and West Belfast. We are back shortly.
We have some new panel members with me. Conor Heston is from the Centre
For Democracy And Peace Building. Is this democracy in action today? I
think it is. The turnout has been about the same as the last election.
A lot of people thought it would be down, but it is in line with the
last election. What do you think about that? More of the same, or do
you think the fresh start document will give people something
different? It looks like the DUP have done very well indeed, I think
Sinn Fein as well. I think it is a message from the electorate that
they want to see the fresh start agreement implemented, they want to
see it in action. The keyword is delivering. I think people are now
looking to see politicians actually delivering in policy areas, making
things happen and making the change everybody in Northern Ireland wants
to see. Chris Donald, you're here with two hats on, with your
commentator had interesting stories arriving in west and south Belfast.
Clare Bailey from the Greens polling very strongly? South Belfast is a
story, the society is becoming more diverse and people are moving away
from some of the traditional voting box. In south Belfast, with all the
SDLP and Alliance might have been vying for the second seed each, it
looks like they will both lose out to Clare Bailey from the Green
Party. A bad loss from the SDLP. One of the stories of the election has
been the SDLP getting in a position to pick of one or two Mac receipts
from Sinn Fein, to shore up their votes. Unfortunately, it looks like
they are going to shade a few more seats again. It looks like they
could lose in Foyle, they could fail to pick up a seat in South Tyrone,
even lose in West Belfast. Coming back to that point, we are seeing
democracy, we have a Sinn Fein and DUP led executive. The other parties
that have been staying with one foot in that and also trying to do this
at the same time, the message being sent to them is that it is not
working, they are not distinguish themselves. The parties that are
losing, when it comes to elections. In the next fortnight, there is
going to be serious conversations within the parties as to whether it
suits them in the middle or long-term future to stand aside,
articulate a credible opposition message, and that might allow them
to become the protest alternative vote. The message for the SDLP is
very important. Sinn Fein have lost significant portions of their vote.
At one time they held 70% of the vote in West Belfast. Is that down
to taking their eye off the ball in terms of local issues and Gerry
Carroll has stepped in, Sinn Fein have been too busy looking at the
bigger picture and things from a Stormont and All-Ireland
perspective? Firstly, I think it's difficult for any party to vote five
seats in sex. It is not the done thing. ER -- six. To do that would
be impressive. I have heard the message articulated many times,
people see them becoming complacent, locally. They come arrogant in many
people. True eyes. There has been a failure to transition to a new
generation of representatives. Gerry Carroll is a younger representative.
There is energy and enthusiasm around his campaign that people
identified with. Very many people. This was not a socialist vote. This
was a Republican constituency, and thousands of people said... Clearly
there is a socialist element to it, West Belfast, being in the top of
deprived areas and feeling really that the gap between rich and poor
is too wide? Undoubtedly, that is the case. But there has always been
a socialist alternative. The reason that he was used as the vehicle is
that people saw it as an alternative credible vote. The Nationalists in
West Belfast looked past it, when they wanted to express a message of
protest that Sinn Fein. They are increasingly being seen as
irrelevant. You are leading one of the teaching unions, do you see this
election has a game changer? There was discussion before 2011 that
somebody else would take the education portfolio. Do you think it
will be different, and if it is would they be able to do a better
job? First, for young people, this was not a very exciting campaign.
There was nowhere for them to vote that was different from what we have
had in the past. A lot of people are complaining about that. Apart from
that, the important bit now is the next two weeks, when they work out
what the programme for government is going to be and what will be
contained within the education part of that, then the big decision will
be which party takes the portfolio. With the news a few days ago, ?22
million, cut to the education authority budget, inevitably that
will end up affecting schools? We are in a funding crisis, we have
been there for the last couple of years and it will get worse over the
next four years. We want to see a government that does something about
funding education levels it should be funded. Is it about money of
funding it slightly differently? It is a bit like the health debate.
There does not seem to be the confidence to change how hospitals
are operated, it becomes a very local issue, and the same can be
said about education? There have been initiatives recently that might
change the way education is divided in terms of shared education. We
will see how that develops over time and there might be something that
can put down what is needed in the budget. It is interesting, Clare
Bailey's vote in south Belfast. She has definitely appealed to a voice
out there that... Where should they outvoted, where have they voted in
the past, where was she thinking about? She has benefited from a vote
that the SDLP had in the past, holding those two MLA seats. Still
early days, it still could be two SDLP seats? It could, but Clare
Bailey looks quite strong. It is not just in south Belfast, the Green
Party seems to be eating into the Alliance vote. That suggests,
Alliance being part of the executive, the Green Party and
Steven Agnew, the opposition corner at Stormont, he has articulated pure
opposition voice. Being able to do that has allowed perhaps the Greens
to build on the notion that they are presenting a fresh alternative. It
is going to be one of the surprises of the election if she gets elected,
it will also make the SDLP and Alliance look, not just Sinn Fein
that have lost in some constituencies up to this point, the
other point is the Ulster Unionists that might lose out altogether.
There are a number of low hanging fruit seats, if you want to call it
that come on the back of the election victory last year, when
they won two Westminster seats. They should have been able to pick up two
or three seats. It looks like they will have a very bad election. We
will be here until midnight. For now, thank you very much.
Now, a while back we saw Jim Wells at the South Down count in Lisbon.
Earlier, he was very critical of the electoral office.
I wish to make the strongest possible objection to the decision
of the electoral office to deny Sinead Bradley's disabled husband
and my disabled wife to get into this count. It is an absolute
scandal, the electoral office have gone far too far. Sinead has topped
the poll in the first count, she wanted her husband beside her, I am
the first to be elected, my wife has been denied, this is a disgrace! Jim
Wells, not happy about access issues. Happy that he has been
returned as an MLA. It is not often that we see that kind of issue
raising its head in such a public way? Serious message, he is on
Twitter, he is furious about this, and there is the issue with Sinead
Bradley's husband. It will have to be ironed out in the future. I don't
know what was going on, he seems to be extremely angry. We know he has
been a tragic and torrid time. It has been a quieter campaign than
last year, but he's not happy. Let's talk about the wider picture. You
have been speaking to Nicholas and looking at numbers. You are always
ahead of the curve. So, just before we go into the graphic sequence,
what is your assessment of where we are at the moment? A pretty good
election for the DUP and Sinn Fein. They haven't necessarily put on in
terms of the share of the vote, but they seem to have defended
what they have got OK. We were often saying that 2011 could be the high
water mark, with 38 seats for the DUP. We are looking at the
possibility they could come out with a net gain. We know they are looking
at gains in constituencies like south Belfast. They could get one in
Strangford. Say they take a lost somewhere else, like Lagan Valley,
they might end up on 39, they could end up on 40. They could be very
happy with that. Sinn Fein have taken some losses, but they are also
winning in other places. They could lose out, I suppose, in West
Belfast. We don't know if that is going to be a Sinn Fein loss, or an
SDLP loss. People Before Profit are coming through. They have certainly
made gains in places like West Londonderry, at the expense of the
SDLP. They could be around 29 or 30 mark. The Ulster Unionists have
regained some defections, but maybe not all of them. They might slip
down slightly. The big losers, I think, are likely to be the SDLP. We
are looking at four or five places where they could lose out and they
were on 14 last time. The significant thing, if we come to the
executive formation, is if they could fall below the threshold of
getting into the executive. They might find themselves in opposition,
not out of choice, but out of necessity. This is Newry and Armagh
after the first stage. Even see William Eireann. That you can see
William Hirwaun. This is the share market? The SDLP had a couple of
candidates in on this. The DUP were out polling the Ulster Unionists. It
was a good result for the DUP. They let the Ulster Unionists take the
lead in the Westminster election, but have not lost out at all. I have
not clicked my clicker hardener. This is the change. This is a place
where they lost Dominic Bradley, a good vote getter for the SDLP last
time. That perhaps explains some of the slide. They have Justin McNulty
in the race. The DUP must have done some pretty hard work on the ground.
The Ulster Unionists, the overall vote has slipped. Danny Kennedy did
suffer. This time round he had a running mate. He didn't have one
last time. It is not just that he had a running mate, the overall
Ulster Unionist vote has slipped. You can see that William Irwin will
be pleased. I saw a picture on Twitter and he had a large smile.
Towards the bottom, you can see the SDLP candidates pretty much neck and
neck. Well, you would expect Justin McNulty, who is ahead, to come out
of the successful SDLP candidate. It looks like Karen McKevitt might lose
out. Sam Nicholson, as we were pointing out, the Ulster Unionist
candidate, the second one running, the son of the party's MEP Jim
Nicholson. This is West Belfast, coming up.
Gerry Carroll topped the poll. Everybody thought he would do well,
did people expect him to top it with such a huge margin? We knew that
Sinn Fein were still trying to balance their votes. This is where
they have performed an amazing vote balancing act by getting five
previously. They were clearly dividing up the territory and trying
not to top the polls. I think it was a foregone conclusion. You can see
the 22% share of the vote that Gerry Carroll got. This is the change on
2011. People Before Profit, but dramatically? At the expense of SDLP
and Sinn Fein. The DUP's Frank McCoubrey is in there, but he will
be quite hard pushed, given that there are not made transfers to go
in his direction. Is it possible to call if it will be the fifth Sinn
Fein seat or Alex Attwood? That is what it comes down to. I don't think
you can call it for sure. Chatting it over with Nicholas, we think it
is probably Alex Attwood that is going to end up taking the fall, at
the expense of Gerry Carroll. You can see Alex Maskey elected on the
second stage. The numbers are certainly interesting. There was a
lot of talk that it could be Pat Sheehan that loses out. As the
stages go on, you can see Alex Attwood picking up more than 750
transfers. He might be transferred friendly enough that it goes down to
the wire. As we were talking about that earlier, it has been the case
for the SDLP in a few constituencies in the past. South Belfast was a
good example. The state of the parties, ten from the DUP, hateful
Sinn Fein. One each for the SDLP, the Ulster Unionists, The Alliance
Party and People Before Profit. Well, Alex Attwood, from your point
of view, he is important, he is not out yet but it will be tight? As you
said. But he is certainly not. We have held seats, by 14, 15 votes.
And there was a thought when some could go to bed thinking they not
had the seat but then do? Yes, fortunes can turn around in the
final hours of a count. But no, I'm not going to lie, it has not been a
fabulous election but a big ship to turn around. The SDLP's decline
happened over a few elections. We have three years before the next
election. Without the choice, Claire Clare if you are not in position to
make the choice to go into opposition or take up your position
in the Executive, as you don't have above what we think is the magic
number of 11... I believe we will. There are nine banked and four or
five in good shape to take on. So I think we will in the first instance.
But if you look at Collum Eastwood, Nichola Mallon, Durcan, Dan
McCrossan, that is a young vibrant team, that if we go into opposition,
we will have a raison d'etre and have a reason to rebuild.
And Feargal McKinney, your party's Deputy Leader, if he is not returned
in south Belfast? It is difficult. And south Belfast has been on a
knife-edge. We were clear that second seat has been held by a tight
margin. Unfortunately it does not look like we have been able to
withstand a substantial Green surge. I remember him taking part in the
outside broadcast about four weeks ago. Feargal was the SDLP
representative, a question was a plan B, what was it? He said he
didn't have a plan B. That plan A was the plan B. No alternative. So
on a personal level, that will be tough? We need to be clear.
Everybody that puts their name before the electorate should be
honoured and credited. You know, no harm to the commentators but the
best hurdles are on the ditch. The 250-odd people who had the good
grace to go before the electorate, to put out their ideas there. Not
everybody wins. Everybody should be credited it is difficult when they
loose and lose close colleagues. That may be a situation for the DUP.
It could be that David McIlveen, a well respected DUP MLA could lose
out. You put out a fourth candidate, a new boy. He may sneak in ahead of
David McIlveen? It remains to be seen. Of course.
But, there could be strategic levels about putting in extra candidates,
dividing it up, one tries one's best. At the end of the day there
can be individual casualties, whatever party it is, especially for
a sitting MLA it is very difficult to come to terms with. People like
John McAllister who fought a very principled stand. I commiserate with
him today as well. He did take a decision which he knew
would probably cause him a very difficult fight to get re-elected.
You have to admire people. Sometimes people say that politicians are in
it for themselves, people are in it, often, in the vast buck of case, out
of principle. Because they believe in things, they give up careers and
take risks, as has happened in the case of John McAllister. Can I pick
up on the Newry Armagh result. Like the South Antrim result, in the
Westminster election, Newry Armagh, Ulster had a free run. There
was talk of Paul Berry in the field. There was pressure in the sec
candidate. That is a remarkable result in Newry Armagh and
likewise the South Antrim result. Turning it back to the Assembly in
2011. The talk about resurgence, overblown and overhyped. The Ulster
Unionist had their second worst year... It was a question from me,
no the a statement. You pointed it out. Quite right. But
in the European election, when they claimed a massive advance on the
council elections, on the second day they had the worst European election
result in history. It was brushed under the carpet. This was overblown
on the basis of a small advance in the council results. What we are
seeing today is a shuddering halt to all of that talk.
Whatever is in the envelope, this That Mike Nesbitt posted himself,
whichever it is, one thing will be clear, it did not contain the sort
of result we are likely to see come the end on Saturday night. I think
hard questions will be asked. Not least on the issue of government.
There will be the view of some that will stay out of government to
reinvent themselves, or to be energised but Ulster Unionist made a
play of coming out of government. They thought that they could
criticise the DUP. If you are out of government, you are irrelevant.
OK. I want to go out and about and speak to a few more reporters and
get an update on what is happening on the ground.
There we are at Foyle. They are counting there and for East
Londonderry. Two fascinating tussle unfolding? That's right. No results
yet. We are waiting patiently to get results. But the story emerging this
afternoon is how well the independents are doing in the Foyle
count. Drshgs McClusky is a GP polling impressively, 3400 and
counting, continuing to get transfers. She says that is the
electorate railing against the established parties in Stormont,
that they are not doing enough for the city in terms of jobs,
investment, increation the advertisement in the rail and the
roads and really looking out for people that she is dealing with in
her GP practice. She says that is why she has the fire in her belly to
go for an election as an independent to stand up against the big party
machines. Now if you think that Dr McClusky has done well but the story
that eclipse that is the story of Mr McCann. The 73-year-old. He has
polled impressively. The word from the established political parties is
that he could well do it this time around. Who are the big losers? It
could be the SDLP's Gerrard Diver. So two for SDLP and two for the Sinn
Fein. So still a media story for the battle for supremacy for the Sinn
Fein and the SDLP. In the East Londonderry count that is
continuing. It is looking at this stage like three DUP, one SDLP,
although there could be a wobble and the independent, Claire Sugden
believes she will retain her seat. In West Tyrone we have had the
result of the full re-count. They found the 36 missing votes but
no-one has been deemed elected on the first count it looks very much
as you were as none of the independents in West Tyrone appear
to have mounted a sufficient challenge to threaten the outgoing
MLAs. Arlene Foster has left amid jubilant scenes, celebrating with
her colleague, Maurice Morrow. A strong performance from the DUP to
ensure that Arlene Foster topped the poll and Maurice Morrow elected on
the transfers of her second count. On the nationalist side it looks
like the SDLP to miss out on regaining the seat they gained five
years ago. And there is a newcomer, John Feely.
No-one across the line in Lagan Valley but not so the case in South
Down. The former Health Minister Jim Wells has been elected on the third
wound of counting. It caps off what has been a better recent period for
Mr Wells. He has had a torrid year politically. Not only resigning from
the Health Minister post but doubts as to whether the DUP wanted him to
run in South Down. His victory in his mind, a little edge taken off it
as his wife, Grace, who is ill, was not admitted to the count hall to
help him celebrate the moment of victory. She is allowed into the
Leisure Centre, she has not been registered for the count count hall
Mr Wells is deeply unhappy, he is to be making a complaint to the
Electoral Commission office. And here the Megan Fearon and Danny
Kennedy to get seats. Danny Kennedy may be disapointed with his seat.
And early days but there could be a seat for Justin McNulty, outpolling
his running mate by about 800 votes. Jobban Dobson and Dough Beadie are
polling well. Sinn Fein pushing for two. Dolores Kelly, we thought her
seat was under threat is still in the fight about 1,000 behind John
O'Dowd and that is the situation here.
Here in Belfast at the Titanic Exhibition Centre I am joined by two
female candidates who could not be further apart politically but
looking good in terms of getting elected. We are waiting on the 6th
stage for south Belfast. Clare Bailey where do you think you got
the votes from? We have seen a huge increase in the Westminster
elections and south Belfast there we secured under 6 pest
first-past-the-post. So we have hung on to those people. What they were
telling us is that in that election people were starting to look at
policy, looking at people that they wanted to support. So bringing an
end to the tactical vote as they were seeing that they were voting
for somebody that they wanted to keep out. So that was starting to
stop. I think we have hung on to those voters and encouraged a lot
more. There were more people wanting to give support but didn't want to
swing the vote last year. As it is a PR election and a multi-seat
returner, a lot of people were willing to lend us the number one
and make a bit of history. Emma Little Pengelly it has been a good
day for you and for the DUP? Yes, positive across Northern Ireland.
Pleased to see many of my colleagues returned. We anticipate that a huge
number of colleagues will be returned throughout the night.
Do you think that you have been vindicated in the strategy of Arlene
Foster for First Minister? It did get criticism during the campaign?
It was not just a strategy it is a reality. Speaking to people on the
doors this was an issue for people. Looking at campaigns across the UK
and across countries, you are voting for the Prime Minister to lead the
country, who is going to be the First Minister it is the same in
Scotland and here. We were saying if you want Arlene as the First
Minister, you have to support the DUP local candidates. We have so
many fantastic candidates across the constituencies, hopefully it was not
a difficult decision for people. Are you hoping that Christopher
Stortford is joining you? Yes We are in the final stages of some people
being eliminated. We have seeing things shift. But we are fairly
confident that is looks good for getting two into south Belfast.
Clare Bailey, the bigger picture for the Green Party, the magic number
for Steven Agnew was three, potentially on course for two, do
you think he can get the three? Well, Ross Brownlee has polled well.
It is a transfers game. It is a transfer waiting game at the minute.
I think if he is going to make it, I mean Ross made it to council in 2014
and there were a long series of transfers. It took a long time. We
are ready to dig in but certainly positive. I think he has done well.
Do you think you will bring a fresh voice to Stormont? 100%. Looking at
Steven's track record, being the only MLA for the Greens, he has
brought through the children's bill, we have been able to change
conversations. We were the first party to bring up the equal marriage
debate. Proud to see how that develops. So all of those things are
very, very important. If that is what one MLA can do, if we get the
three in this time around we expect more different conversations to
come. We will wait and see. Thank you very
much for joining us. Now to Ballymena.
We had four MLAs elected in Midcan Ulster. There could be a developing
story there. Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill, Ian Milne and the SDLP's
candidate elected. The votes are being redistributed it looks like it
could come down to a three-person battle.
There is also Keith Buchanan and the sitting MLA from the DUP. Ian McRae
looks to be under threat from Keith Buchanan. They are neck and neck.
It will be interesting as the stages go on to see what happens. There is
a sitting DUP MLA under threat in north an trick, that is David
McIlveen. And weect SPECT candidates from Sinn
Fein to be elected. But it looks like three people in the final two
seats. David McIlveen, Phillip Logan and Robin Swan.
There are expected transfers to go ahead. Not much movement but
fascinating battles coming up for the seats in the constituencies.
Very interesting, and emerging story on elimination is happening in
Newtownabbey, East and South Antrim. In East Antrim, we heard Colin
Sheridan was eliminated, then we heard it to Maureen Morrow of the
Unionists. In North Antrim, they had been hoping for a resurgence, that
clearly hasn't happened. Adrian clock and -- Adrian Cochrane-Wilson
has just been eliminated. That means they have not had the electoral
resurgence they wanted in that particular seat. I am in Bangor, and
Gordon Dunne has been elected is the latest news. That is the second MLA
for North Down. The first was Alex Easton, who stormed in with 1.5
times the quota for his first preferences. He said he was
emotional and thanked the voters. The Alliance candidates polled well.
Neither has reached the quota, each got quite a large vote, we're
waiting to see which one reaches it. We are expecting the status quo as
regards numbers. In Strangford, Mike Nesbitt topped the poll. That was
against Michelle McIlveen. Both of them were elected in first
preferences. He said he was stunned. Michelle McIlveen usually tops the
poll. Mike Nesbitt, strong performance, they risk to his
running mate, Nick Smith. Alliance's Kellie Armstrong was standing in the
seat vacated by her colleague, Kieran McCarthy. She looks pretty
strong and is rising by the minute. She looks safe. We expect the same
kind of rundown. There is a question over Joe Boyle, the SDLP candidate.
There has never been a nationalist winner of this collection in this
area. It looks like he is creeping closer to finally making that after
15 years of trying. It is fair to say there has not
exactly been an avalanche of results. But we are about a fifth of
the way there, we reckon. Let's see how that affects Mark Simpson's
virtual Assembly. This time five years ago, when we had the last
Assembly election, we had no seats elected by this stage, we should be
counting our blessings. Let's have a look inside the virtual Stormont
chamber. Already, it is only 5:50, but a trend is emerging. Let's look
at it. The largest party, as things stand, the DUP. 12 seats so far for
Arlene Foster. She will be very happy with that. Some DUP sources
say that they are going to be able to match what they got last time,
all the way down here, right up to 38 seats. Some of the real optimists
are even talking about 30. -- 40. We will wait and see. A strong start to
the election also for Sinn Fein. Eight seats so far. Good news for
Martin McGuinness in his bid to become Deputy First Minister again.
I think First Minister, as things stand, looks out of his reach. What
Sinn Fein really want is to fill the bench right up to 30 seats, more
than they got last time. They only got 29 last time, they want 30
because it gives them a veto, the so-called petition of concern. What
about the SDLP? Not so good news for them at the moment. They only have
one MLA elected, Patsy McGlone, looking very alone at the moment.
Why this is potentially a problem for the SDLP is that if they don't
fill a few more seats and get up to around 11, which would be fewer than
the 14 they got last time, they might be in danger of missing out in
a ministry, that would be very bad news for them. Also on one seat, the
other side of the chamber, we have Mike Nesbitt. Maybe a bit smaller
than we have seen him before, sitting beside the DUP. The only
Ulster Unionist elected, but they got 60 last time. Mike Nesbitt
has some work to do, and so does his party. I think we can see the
pattern, the trend. The two big beasts are in a very strong
position, as we enter the last two thirds of the election. What about
the other parties? That, believe it or not, is Naomi Long, she is back
at Stormont. It's the first of what The Alliance Party hopes is at least
eight. That is what they got last time. They will have company on the
backbenches. Aside Naomi Long, a virtual Gerry Carroll, who topped
the poll in West Belfast for People Before Profit. A quick look, 24
seats, more than a fifth of the MLAs have been elected. One more
statistic for you, I'm told of the 24 elected so far, at least seven
are women, but there is plenty of room for plenty more. 24 of the 108
returned, as Mark was telling us, which is interesting in itself. I
think, more interesting than that, now we have the first preferences
from all 18 constituencies. That is significant, because we cannot talk
about the share of the vote across Northern Ireland and change. Mark
Devenport is here. Let's look at this graphic. Mark, talk us through
this. No huge surprises, but I think it merits a bit of explanation? A
lot of talk about who would be the biggest party. That was in terms of
seats, most people were talking about. It was possible, because in
the local elections and the European elections, Sinn Fein outpolled the
DUP. You could have had a election were Sinn Fein would have the
highest percentage of the vote, but the DUP with more seats. You can see
that the DUP have held onto their lead. Behind them, the other
parties. It is not that the DUP vote has grown. If we show the change's
If I hit the button hard enough. All of the established parties are on
the way down. The DUP has lost nearly a percentage of the vote.
Sinn Fein are down 3%. That reflects the fact that in the heartlands they
are losing votes to the likes of People Before Profit and some
independents. Just to show the vagaries of the system, we are
talking about it being a good election for Sinn Fein in terms of
target seats, they are hitting them and holding onto them, they are
ready to make gains, they have taken a bigger percentage for than the
SDLP, but the SDLP appear to be probably the ones that will come out
worst in terms of seats. That is worth bearing in mind. Whilst Nigel
Dodds has been talking about the DUP successes, the Ulster Unionists not
having successes, it terms of shares of the vote, the Ulster Unionists
have fallen back slightly less than the DUP. There is the electoral
system for you. So, you were joking earlier about Mike Nesbitt being
only up 0.9 at the locals, you are down 0.8? I wasn't making any
claims. I know, it is funny. The important thing is not the overall
vote, unlike the Euro elections, we are a number of constituencies and
that is where you marshal your votes and get the seats. One of the
interesting things we are looking at is, it is the first time since 2007
in terms of the number of votes, we are on 202,000 votes, the first time
since 2007 we have broken the 200,000 vote mark. That is very
significant. You can have percentages, but in real terms, more
people are voting DUP for the first time since 2007. It is quite a
remarkable election for us. The percentage, it seems there are more
voters around? Ever so slightly. We are having a very good election, up
12.6%, for the Ulster Unionists, for a party that is supposed to be
resurgent, this is a pretty disastrous election. Let's get a
quick reaction from everybody else. Stephen, we have not heard from you
for a while. Down 0.7%, it is seat numbers that counts, everybody
understands that, but you would rather have been up, when I was
talking to people like yourself, David Ford and Naomi Long, they were
saying this is the breakthrough, and it is not? Everybody in an election
campaign is looking to make gains. We have run more candidate in
previous times. We have placed them strategically and tried to make the
breakthroughs. We have come back with what we have started off with.
In the context, the established mainstream parties are experiencing
a drop in support, we have marshalled to retain or eight. Has
been a scramble, you have retain seats but scrambling for them more
than five years ago? Absolutely not. The candidates returned, it is a
reflection of the fact that we are managing this in different ways. We
are trying to maximise the numbers we can get returned, over the course
of the coming counts. There is no question over the eight seats. They
are all going to be returned comfortably. We have actually
achieved our best ever result since the Assembly was established. We are
making some real statements, particularly in east Belfast. Let's
see what the seat tally is, that will be the real stat. Sinn Fein,
Mark making the point that it has to be the case that People Before
Profit has eaten into overall score? We will have to see, we will have to
add this to our increased tally in the general election. Nevertheless,
we were all predicting, everybody was predicting, on the doors we were
engaging that there was a kind of switching off, this was not the most
energetic election campaign, I don't think it will come as a great
surprise that the turnout is down, and therefore some of the votes are
down. The critical thing is that we are looking to make gains in some
constituencies. We are confident we will make a number of gains, and in
some we have had positive victories. It is important and it would be
wrote -- remiss not to take note. The SDLP down 2.6%? I thought it was
less than that, it isn't a great result and we haven't had much time
to turn it around. I think the sham fight has been turned into an art
form, the duopoly is putting people off. The 15% of other, the fact the
nationalist vote is 5% down, I think it shows that identity is less
binary and will be more fluid. That will be an interesting dynamic.
Thank you. A few hours into the results coverage, it has already
thrown up some drama, familiar faces under threat of losing seats and the
toppling of the poll in West Belfast of People Before Profit's Gerry
Carroll. The challenge of the UUP against the DUP has not really taken
off and Sinn Fein has appeared to lose some votes to independent
candidates. It is set to be a fascinating evening. Please join us
on BBC Two at 7pm, after the news. Until then, goodbye.