well welcome to the most important thing 欢迎来到最重要的事情 2 在整个职业生涯中，霍​​华德发现自己不断地对客户说
Howard throughout his career found 最重要的是他的书他分解成最重要的 20 章
Howard throughout his career found 重要的事情和他学到的东西 今天我们要讨论
Howard throughout his career found himself saying to clients constantly the 霍华德二世的一些人记得我徘徊在你的
himself saying to clients constantly the 你是在我自己的办公室里闲逛还是来城市银行看我看
himself saying to clients constantly the most important thing is and his book he 客户一开始总是会拜访我，而你在股票方面被误导了
most important thing is and his book he 如果我没记错的话，那时我是一名正在复苏的股票投资者，所以
most important thing is and his book he broke down into 20 chapters of the most 今天，我们有许多我们期待涵盖的主题，例如
broke down into 20 chapters of the most 明星开始的想法是不注意你所写的历史教训
broke down into 20 chapters of the most important things and what he's learned 不理解历史的教训比什么都重要
important things and what he's learned 是什么注定了投资者在 I Greene 上反复受害
important things and what he's learned and today we're going to get to discuss 我实际上相信这不仅仅是投资你知道的许多其他事情
and today we're going to get to discuss 很少有人做研究或真正反映为什么你说那是为什么
and today we're going to get to discuss a number of those in Howard I I 投资最重要的是特别是涉及人的事情
a number of those in Howard I I 受周期支配，你知道经济不断循环生命
a number of those in Howard I I remembered that I wander into your 业务周期市场是周期性的，但反复人
remembered that I wander into your 错误地认为趋势将永远持续下去
remembered that I wander into your office or did you wander in my own you 树木将向天空生长的方向 某物可以值一点
office or did you wander in my own you 并且这意味着它将变为零，而这些是最大的时候
office or did you wander in my own you came to City Bank to see me see the 随着情况好转和价格上涨，投资者会犯错误
came to City Bank to see me see the 认识到人们会推断出这一点，他们会变得更加兴奋
came to City Bank to see me see the client always going to visit I at first 事情上升，想要买更多的东西，人们变得更加沮丧
client always going to visit I at first 东西掉了，想卖得更多，这与你的相反
client always going to visit I at first and you were misguided in equities at 应该做，你会接触到一些让我们看一看或谈论一个
and you were misguided in equities at 结合阿拉伯石油禁运我的意思是你知道在阿拉伯石油禁运之前
and you were misguided in equities at that time if I remember correctly I was 石油几乎一文不值，阿拉伯石油禁运随之而来
that time if I remember correctly I was 说服人们相反，石油价值无限
that time if I remember correctly I was I was a recovering equity investor so so 价格超过应有的价格和购买石油的人
I was a recovering equity investor so so 尽管石油很重要且可用，但相关资产仍处于高峰期
I was a recovering equity investor so so today we have a number of topics we're 在有限的供应中损失了很多钱很长一段时间，因为他们得到了
today we have a number of topics we're 价格太高了漂亮的 50 我不确定每个人都在
today we have a number of topics we're looking forward to covering hard like 房间记得我们可能会展示我们已经超过 30 岁的漂亮 50 岁
looking forward to covering hard like 但好吧，你必须回去，我想大约 40 年前，漂亮的 50
looking forward to covering hard like the star start with the idea of failing 他们死了，但是当你和我在 1969 年从研究生院毕业时
the star start with the idea of failing 主要银行和银行信托公司是主要投资者
the star start with the idea of failing to heed the lessons of history you write 没有精品店之类的时候，银行信托部门最多
to heed the lessons of history you write 经常强调所谓的漂亮的 50 投资，这意味着你拿了 50
to heed the lessons of history you write that failing to understand the lessons 美国最好的公司 增长最快的公司
that failing to understand the lessons 施乐IBM柯达宝丽来默克礼来德州仪器惠普
that failing to understand the lessons of history more than anything else is PerkinElmer 雅芳可口可乐等沃尔玛麦当劳它说和你
of history more than anything else is 不顾价格买入他们的股票，因为他们是最好的，而且他们是
of history more than anything else is what dooms investors to being victimized 增长最快的，所以它们有点贵，你无所谓
what dooms investors to being victimized 等待足够长的时间来成长为它和官方格言，无论是口头还是
what dooms investors to being victimized repeatedly cycle by cycle on I Greene 这些机构最多不言自明的是它没有
repeatedly cycle by cycle on I Greene 只要你买了最好的和小故障，不管你付出什么代价
repeatedly cycle by cycle on I Greene and I actually believe that goes beyond 是因为我在 69 年加入花旗银行时，他们的交易价格是 80 到 90 倍
and I actually believe that goes beyond 到 73 岁时，他们的市盈率是 8 到 9 倍，这意味着
and I actually believe that goes beyond investing so many other things you know 你在美国最好的公司中损失了 90% 的钱
investing so many other things you know 这是一个非常痛苦的教训，可能是我最大的学习经历，你知道
investing so many other things you know very few people do research or really 当你没有得到你想要的但我学到了经验
very few people do research or really 从中学到了很多，它教会我的是风险和安全什么也没有
very few people do research or really reflect why do you say that why is that 与资产质量无关 你知道这是一个有趣的点是它是怎么说的
reflect why do you say that why is that 在历史的这个时刻，我们所知道的货币中心银行是信托
reflect why do you say that why is that so important in investing most things 银行这是一个安全的地方，可以把你的钱放在正确的位置，我认为加权
so important in investing most things 70 年代初的平均市盈率可能是 66，甚至十年后
so important in investing most things are especially things involving people 正如霍华德所说，你真的损失了 90% 的钱
are especially things involving people 正如霍华德所说，安全的想法永远改变了资金管理，如果
are especially things involving people are governed by cycles and you know the 大型信托银行可能会因通货膨胀而损失 90% 的资金
are governed by cycles and you know the 购买最好的公司，这确实极大地扩展了资金管理
are governed by cycles and you know the economy cycles constantly the the life 从某种意义上说，私人基金经理的业务 共同基金业务
economy cycles constantly the the life 你认为你是安全的，但你并不安全，其中许多公司
economy cycles constantly the the life cycle of businesses the the markets are 最终像宝丽来一样失败，但霍华德说其中许多仍然是
cycle of businesses the the markets are 美国最伟大的公司只是他们的市盈率降低了 80%
cycle of businesses the the markets are cyclical and yet repeatedly people 黑色星期一 1987 又来了你必须现在你只需要回去 26
cyclical and yet repeatedly people 多年要记住它，但那是股市下跌的那一天
cyclical and yet repeatedly people commit the mistake of thinking that 我认为 26% 现在你认为市场下跌了 3% 以及如何
commit the mistake of thinking that 惊慌失措的人会尝试损失 26% 的钱
commit the mistake of thinking that trends will go on forever in one 有朝一日，尽管如此，甚至没有一个明显的候选人来解释什么原因
trends will go on forever in one 如果你的股票基数太高
trends will go on forever in one direction that trees will grow to the 由于过于乐观，有人已经吞下了这个谣言
direction that trees will grow to the 您可以保护自己的免疫接种，因为您将建立一个
direction that trees will grow to the sky that something can be worth a little 自动出售投资组合保险但购买投资组合的政策
sky that something can be worth a little 保险，如果价格开始下跌，你所要做的就是下跌时卖出
sky that something can be worth a little and and and that means it's going to go 他们开始下跌，只是经纪人不接电话
and and and that means it's going to go 并且它建立在自己的基础上，所以你知道从中得到的教训是
and and and that means it's going to go to zero and these are when the biggest 没有什么事情是我父亲过去常讲的关于
to zero and these are when the biggest 你认识的顽固赌徒总是在赛道上输掉租金和
to zero and these are when the biggest errors are committed by investors as 终于听说要和一匹马赛跑，所以他出去赌了他所有的赌注
errors are committed by investors as 钱，绕着赛道跑了一半，马跳过栅栏跑了
errors are committed by investors as things get better and as prices rise in 离开不是一个非常复杂的笑话，但关键是没有确定的事情
things get better and as prices rise in 投资中肯定没有确定的事情，当你听到肯定的消息时
things get better and as prices rise in recognition of that people extrapolate 最好的办法就是跑到另一边
recognition of that people extrapolate 我认为那段时间的另一个教训是利率
recognition of that people extrapolate that and they people get more excited as 到 1987 年 10 月急剧上升，如果你完全理解
that and they people get more excited as 你不能让股票继续上涨而利率继续上升
that and they people get more excited as things rise and want to buy a more and 这将需要更大的未来收益折扣，正如霍华德所说
things rise and want to buy a more and 你在市场上有异常，所以霍华德和我在 1960 年代长大
things rise and want to buy a more and things people get more depressed as 在商学院，你会学习市场是如何完美的
things people get more depressed as 你知道它是高效的 它是完美的 1987 年的这段时间总是如此
things people get more depressed as things fall and want to sell them more 你想知道市场是否完美，为什么它的交易价格比第二天低 20%
things fall and want to sell them more 前一天，如果它是完美的，我和我认为这让你再次上升
things fall and want to sell them more which is just the opposite of what you 就像 1970 年期间特别是 73 和 76 之间造成的
which is just the opposite of what you 共同基金的爆炸式增长是在 1987 年的这个时期真正开始的
which is just the opposite of what you should do and you touch base on a number 传统经理人对冲基金的加速发展 你能对冲吗
should do and you touch base on a number 你能不能发现人又短又长
should do and you touch base on a number of let's take a look or talk about a 霍华德科技泡沫怎么样让我们继续前进大约 12 或 13
of let's take a look or talk about a 多年来，科技泡沫是你认识的马克
of let's take a look or talk about a couple the Arab oil embargo well I mean 吐温说历史不会重演，但它确实押韵主题
couple the Arab oil embargo well I mean 押韵即使细节不同科技泡沫就像
couple the Arab oil embargo well I mean you know before the Arab oil embargo the 漂亮的 50 人相信这些都是伟大的公司
you know before the Arab oil embargo the 将要改变世界，因此无论你做什么
you know before the Arab oil embargo the oil was selling for almost nothing and 支付并猜测他们共同改变了世界
oil was selling for almost nothing and 世界在技术上与 20 年前没有相似之处，但如果
oil was selling for almost nothing and the Arab oil embargo came along and it 你投资了大多数这些公司 你赔光了所有的钱 我认为这是
the Arab oil embargo came along and it 非常重要的一点我只想强调霍华德是在
the Arab oil embargo came along and it convinced people that to the contrary 1960 年代后期，美林发布了一份报告，列出了 30 家公司
convinced people that to the contrary 技术行业，他们建议计算机行业
convinced people that to the contrary oil was of infinite value and it ran way 到本世纪末，这 30 家公司将增加 100 倍
oil was of infinite value and it ran way 在 15 年内只有一个人从事计算机行业，所以他们有一百个
oil was of infinite value and it ran way up to a price in excess of what it 在计算机行业技术的巨大增长中，正确的百分比
up to a price in excess of what it 然而，他们挑选的 30 家公司中有 29 家不再营业或
up to a price in excess of what it should be and the people who bought oil 我从那个角度思考的计算机业务，我记得霍华德
should be and the people who bought oil 有人希望你投资一家科技公司的时期
should be and the people who bought oil related assets at the peak despite the 说得好，这听起来很有趣，我们可以读一下吗，他们会说得好，如果
related assets at the peak despite the 你必须阅读它，你将没有机会投资，因为当你完全
related assets at the peak despite the fact that oil is important and available 认购或者看起来有点像今天的高收益债券市场
fact that oil is important and available 不是吗
fact that oil is important and available in limited supply lost a lot of money 好吧，我不认为我认为它没有那么戏剧化，而且当你
in limited supply lost a lot of money 买债券，你知道我明白了我必须告诉你它是在追捕
in limited supply lost a lot of money for a long time because they they got 漂亮的 50 事情并没有那么好，是当我转移到钱
for a long time because they they got 花旗银行的管理层从研究开始，我被安排到债券部门，他们
for a long time because they they got involved at too high a price 想让我远离股票，我在 78 年 8 月接到一个电话，他们说
involved at too high a price 加利福尼亚有一个叫米尔肯之类的人，他交易
involved at too high a price the nifty 50 I'm not sure everyone in 有了高收益债券，你能弄清楚那是什么，而全世界都不知道
the nifty 50 I'm not sure everyone in 所以你知道我见过迈克，他向我解释说，如果你购买了评级
the nifty 50 I'm not sure everyone in the room remembers how're the nifty 50 债券，他们生存下来，那么所有的惊喜都将是好的，如果他们
the room remembers how're the nifty 50 生存仍然是三个关键词的集合，如果你购买高收益债券
the room remembers how're the nifty 50 we might be showing that we're over 30 今天，它们的家禽产量为 5%，它们可以存活下来
we might be showing that we're over 30 百分之五，你可以得到一些好处，他们可以被收购
we might be showing that we're over 30 but well you have to go back I guess it 他们可能会发生一些好事，事实上你最了解
but well you have to go back I guess it 人们害怕利率上升，因为他们会压抑
but well you have to go back I guess it was about 40 years ago that the nifty 50 暂时的债券价格，但如果信用良好，它仍会回到
was about 40 years ago that the nifty 50 当您获得回报时，优惠券会以相同的价格再投资
was about 40 years ago that the nifty 50 had their demise but when you and I got 比你预期的要高，所以这真的不是坏消息，所以你可以做一个
had their demise but when you and I got 如果他们幸存下来，比五个好一点，关键是没有人去过
had their demise but when you and I got out of graduate school in 1969 the 打破了百分之五，所以你可以希望你有更多，但如果结果
out of graduate school in 1969 the 如果今天的高收益债券被证明是错误的，我知道
out of graduate school in 1969 the leading banks and the bank trust 在这次会议上一直在讨论这是否是一个错误它不会发生
leading banks and the bank trust 是一个大错误，它不会是一个致命的错误
leading banks and the bank trust companies were the leading investors at 在投资业务中你必须知道的是什么能承载你
companies were the leading investors at 出去，它不会是你以 5% 购买的信誉良好的债券
companies were the leading investors at the time there were no boutiques and so 我认为霍华德刚刚提出了另一个我想要的非常重要的观点
the time there were no boutiques and so 如果您购买长期资产，可能会在很多方面强调霍华德
the time there were no boutiques and so forth the bank trust departments most 真的不是债券的息票，关键是再投资率
forth the bank trust departments most 1974 年利率飙升时，Equitable Life 等保险公司
forth the bank trust departments most often emphasized something called nifty 保险公司和其他人在他们保证的地方写了年金
often emphasized something called nifty 长期利率，所以你可以把你的钱算作利息
often emphasized something called nifty 50 investing which meant you took the 50 到 1977 年，利率急剧下降，他们无法再将资金再投资于
50 investing which meant you took the 50 他们的利率得到保证，他们面临着很多经济挑战和
50 investing which meant you took the 50 best companies in America the 最终被收购和合并，而你我希望你能参与其中
best companies in America the 再投资率有点霍华德，如果你做得好，我的意思是你有
best companies in America the fastest-growing 成为一个债券 哦，你必须成为一个债券人才能理解这一点，如果你
fastest-growing 知道他们中的大多数已经消失了你有没有注册那个名字债券哦
fastest-growing Xerox IBM Kodak Polaroid Merck Lilly 好吧，我想还有一个我被我抓到的人，但是每个人
Xerox IBM Kodak Polaroid Merck Lilly 知道当您购买债券时，您会通过息票获得承诺的回报
Xerox IBM Kodak Polaroid Merck Lilly Texas Instruments Hewlett Packard 每个人都知道，如果你以不同于平价的价格购买它们，它们
Texas Instruments Hewlett Packard 支付他们收敛到标准，这是两个可靠的回报来源，但
Texas Instruments Hewlett Packard PerkinElmer Avon coca-cola 大多数不是债券专家的人不了解债券的重要性
PerkinElmer Avon coca-cola 利息利息，如果你看像 30 年期债券这样的长期债券
PerkinElmer Avon coca-cola etc Walmart McDonald's it said and you 一天结束时的大部分回报不会来自利息或来自
etc Walmart McDonald's it said and you 升值但来自利息的利息
etc Walmart McDonald's it said and you bought their stocks regardless of price 很明显，那么它是等式中的关键移动部分，问题是
bought their stocks regardless of price 你在什么利率再投资利息，以及当你购买债券时
bought their stocks regardless of price because they were the best and they were 规定的到期收益率 计算假设再投资将在
because they were the best and they were 引用的到期收益率，但它不一定是，事实是
because they were the best and they were the fastest growing and so they were a 而人们对我之前说过的债券利率上升感到震惊，因为这是
the fastest growing and so they were a 在此期间压低价格它确实促进了进入投资
the fastest growing and so they were a little expensive it didn't matter you 优惠券的回报率高于预期，所以它实际上是一个福音
little expensive it didn't matter you 以及您将能够将资金再投资于此的可能性
little expensive it didn't matter you wait long enough to grow into it and the 准确率极低 非常接近更好 所以这有点虚幻
wait long enough to grow into it and the 算算让我们谈谈2007年危机中最近的金融挑战
wait long enough to grow into it and the official dictum whether spoken or 2008 年我们的井，它的出现是因为正如我所说，人们忽略了循环
official dictum whether spoken or 分配的东西，开始相信树会长到天空
official dictum whether spoken or unspoken at most 并相信永远的美好时光是我最大的单一问题
unspoken at most 《纽约时报》要求写一篇关于危机原因的文章
unspoken at most these institutions was that it didn't 他们问了十几个人，正如你想象的那样，他们得到了十多个答案
these institutions was that it didn't 而我的回答是一篇文章，叫太多信任太少担心和
these institutions was that it didn't matter what price you pay as long as you 基本上是在危机爆发前的几年里哦五六和
matter what price you pay as long as you 早期的七个人开始相信风险已经消除，并且
matter what price you pay as long as you bought the best and the the little hitch 可以解决世界围墙的任何问题的熟练的组合
bought the best and the the little hitch 来自中国和石油生产商的流动性以
bought the best and the the little hitch was that when I joined Citibank in 69 超额准备金将不断提振我们的股票和按钮资产价格
was that when I joined Citibank in 69 华尔街的奇妙发明和证券化分期付款和
was that when I joined Citibank in 69 they were trading at 80 to 90 times 继续销售已经消除了风险，并且把它切得如此精细
they were trading at 80 to 90 times 传播如此广泛以至于真的没有多少风险所以人们停止了
they were trading at 80 to 90 times earnings and by 73 they were trading at 担心赔钱风险规避是保持的关键因素
earnings and by 73 they were trading at 市场诚实而理智，当人们厌恶风险时，他们会这样做
earnings and by 73 they were trading at eight to nine times earnings which meant 广泛的尽职调查 他们将应用保守的假设 他们将
eight to nine times earnings which meant 要求赔偿以排除风险，所有这些都非常有帮助
eight to nine times earnings which meant that you lost 90 percent of your money 但是当他们忘记了规避风险，然后他们放弃了他们应得的
that you lost 90 percent of your money 勤奋 他们不再保守他们的假设 他们不再要求
that you lost 90 percent of your money in the best companies in America so that 保护性契约和足够的回报和风险溢价，然后
in the best companies in America so that 价格相对于现实来说太高了，那就是你破产的时候
in the best companies in America so that was a very painful lesson probably my 在我看来，哦七哦八发生的事情比我任何时候都多
was a very painful lesson probably my 生命周期 它全面发生 我们以前在不同的资产中见过它
was a very painful lesson probably my greatest learning experience you know 在 88 个班里有 90 个这样的驱动公司等等
greatest learning experience you know 相信磁盘驱动器行业掌握着岸上财富的秘密
greatest learning experience you know the experience is what you got when you 但在危机之前，他们觉得一切都是为了轻松致富
the experience is what you got when you 没有风险，因为风险已被排除，所以这就是发生的事情
the experience is what you got when you didn't get what you wanted but I learned 这真的是人们忽视事物周期性的一个例子
didn't get what you wanted but I learned 让我离题一下，大约 40 年前我学会了其中一个
didn't get what you wanted but I learned a lot from it and and what it taught me 我的第一句重要格言，有人告诉我有三个阶段
a lot from it and and what it taught me 到牛市的第一阶段，当几个聪明人意识到事情
a lot from it and and what it taught me is that risk and safety have nothing or 当大多数人意识到改进是第二阶段时，可以变得更好
is that risk and safety have nothing or 实际发生和第三阶段，当每个人和他的兄弟
is that risk and safety have nothing or little to do with asset quality you know 相信事情会永远变得更好 所以第三阶段是
little to do with asset quality you know 正如我们在生活中看到的那样，在 oh 7 达到了几次，并且
little to do with asset quality you know it's an interesting point is how it said 相信我，如果您购买了卖方和其他投标人认为的资产
it's an interesting point is how it said 它会永远变得更好，你会遇到麻烦，那就是
it's an interesting point is how it said at this point in history the money 当我和我想我会说我仍然相信
at this point in history the money 七十四、六时期你知道比我们最近的时期更不稳定吗？
at this point in history the money center banks as we know were the trust 经历了利率翻倍的股票下跌 50% 等
center banks as we know were the trust 你和我多年来一直在讨论我会说当你看到这些
center banks as we know were the trust banks it was a safe place to put your 金融危机，它们实际上与一个杠杆作用的四五件事有关
banks it was a safe place to put your 公司大幅增加金融机构的杠杆
banks it was a safe place to put your money right and I think the weighted 以 40 到 50 比 1 的方式利用他们的想法
money right and I think the weighted 摆脱回报和投资者杠杆投资者正如你所说的杠杆
money right and I think the weighted average p/e into the early 70s was 相信有一些特殊的房地产质量，当我们反思这一点时
average p/e into the early 70s was 霍华德在他的公司特别擅长的领域
average p/e into the early 70s was probably 66 and even a decade later 公司或公司义务 我认为在 cielos 中没有损失一美元
probably 66 and even a decade later 与抵押贷款的重大损失相比，相信这些事情
probably 66 and even a decade later where as Howard said you've lost 90 是 3A 是一个谬论 第三我会说评级的想法你是
where as Howard said you've lost 90 取决于评级，显然霍华德认为你的公司更大
where as Howard said you've lost 90 percent of your money this really 正在做自己的研究风险 这是您真正涉及的另一个领域
percent of your money this really 这本书，你已经把它分成三个部分来理解它
percent of your money this really changed money management forever as 认识到它并控制 让我们来看看你如何看待风险和
changed money management forever as 正如您在这里多次指出的那样，投资者通常如何误判风险
changed money management forever as Howard said the idea of safety if the 第一，大多数人将风险等同于低质量资产，将安全等同于
Howard said the idea of safety if the 高品质资产，他们仍然这样做 我提到了漂亮的 50 高品质
Howard said the idea of safety if the large trust banks can lose adjusted for 人们认为你知道有一个 IRB 是一句老话，你买东西不会受伤
large trust banks can lose adjusted for 另一方面，IBM 和我们记录了您损失了 80% 到 90% 的资金
large trust banks can lose adjusted for inflation ninety percent of your money 低质量是一种风险来源，你知道当我开始时
inflation ninety percent of your money 高收益债券早在 78 年我就查过穆迪是什么意思
inflation ninety percent of your money buying the best companies this really 单一 B 和穆迪找到单一 B 债券如下报价不具备
buying the best companies this really 理想投资的特征
buying the best companies this really expanded greatly the money management 换句话说，低质量的资产不可能是好的投资
expanded greatly the money management 低质量资产变成好资产没有任何价格
expanded greatly the money management business the private money manager the 投资，你知道吗，如果我们在这次会议结束后去停车场，我
business the private money manager the 对你说我想卖给你我的车你想买吗，让我们说
business the private money manager the mutual fund business in the sense that 你喜欢我的车，你有钱，你需要一辆车，希望有一辆
mutual fund business in the sense that 你在说是之前会问我的问题，这就是价格，这里
mutual fund business in the sense that you thought you were safe and you 穆迪说被评级的债券是一项糟糕的投资，那又如何呢？
you thought you were safe and you 75 美分 1 美元 50 美元 25 美元 没有价格等等
you thought you were safe and you weren't safe and many of these companies 这是你可以利用的那种羊群错误，所以风险不是
weren't safe and many of these companies 质量，你知道大多数人相信随着价格上涨
weren't safe and many of these companies eventually failed like polaroid but many 这意味着人们认为最好的办法是风险更小，我
eventually failed like polaroid but many 认为当某物价格上涨时，大多数人会变得更危险
eventually failed like polaroid but many of them is Howard said remain among the 相信每个人都认为有风险的事情是有风险的 我认为
of them is Howard said remain among the 每个人都认为有风险的东西是安全的，因为他们厌恶它
of them is Howard said remain among the greatest companies in America is just 迫使价格降至安全且可能有利可图的程度
greatest companies in America is just 世界上最危险的事情是相信没有
greatest companies in America is just their p/e ratios reduced by 80 percent 风险 风险是反常的，这才是最重要的
their p/e ratios reduced by 80 percent 书中的一章谈到的是风险的反常性，它是
their p/e ratios reduced by 80 percent black monday 1987 coming well again you 像 O 7 中那样的信念 没有风险的信念使世界变得危险
black monday 1987 coming well again you 并且在 8 月末雷曼兄弟熔毁了不存在的信念之后
black monday 1987 coming well again you have to now you only have to go back 26 潜在的未来创造了一个伟大的潜在未来，我认为应该遵循
have to now you only have to go back 26 霍华德在这里说评级机构保持相同的评级
have to now you only have to go back 26 years to remember it but that's the day 在证券上无论是一百二十五它可能是一个三重的它
years to remember it but that's the day 就在 25 岁，它可能是 15 岁的单人版，顺便说一下散热器，你知道我们
years to remember it but that's the day that the stock market lost 你和我应该对我曾经的评级机构说一句话吗？
that the stock market lost 有一次他在沃顿商学院，有人对我说
that the stock market lost I think 26 percent now you think of the 评级机构在这个过程中我所说的评级机构的作用是
I think 26 percent now you think of the 是错误的，因为它给了我们一些东西来对抗你知道我
I think 26 percent now you think of the market being down three percent and how 不知道这个房间里有多少人知道有多少家公司被评级
market being down three percent and how 今天是 3A 但答案是多少抵押债务被评级
market being down three percent and how panicked people get try losing 26 抵押贷款浪潮中的 3A 可能告诉我 16,000 那是我相信的
panicked people get try losing 26 他有可能在一百之后
panicked people get try losing 26 percent of your money and 多年的经济历史 我们的经济只创造了四个AAA级
percent of your money and 但在几年内，华尔街能够创造 16,000
percent of your money and one day and though it was there was not AAA级抵押贷款义务，这可能是最大的机会
one day and though it was there was not 在短时间内在一生中赚钱你知道人们对我说的是什么
one day and though it was there was not even a obvious candidate for what caused 我最大的遗憾，我总是说我最大的遗憾是我不是约翰
even a obvious candidate for what caused 保尔森，但你知道他的小共同基金
even a obvious candidate for what caused it 当年在抵押贷款交易中赚了 160 亿美元
it 有机会以 10 美分或 20 美分的价格购买许多债券
it you had stocks that were too high based 已经付清了，是的，你可能知道大量的让我们
you had stocks that were too high based 谈论书中你最喜欢的章节之一，知道你不知道什么
you had stocks that were too high based on too much optimism you had people who 好吧，高估了是的，你有能力知道和做
on too much optimism you had people who 极其危险的事情，而不是在你的范围内工作，我们为什么不呢？
on too much optimism you had people who had swallowed this canard of 谈谈那个好看的我想迈克和我知道你同意投资 282 世界是一个睾丸激素过多的世界，人们认为他们必须
immunization that you could protect 证明我们有一些小女人现在扮演着更大的角色，她们有可能
immunization that you could protect 有它也不错，但人们相信
immunization that you could protect yourself because you would establish a 他们的工作是知道未来会怎样 你可以知道未来会怎样
yourself because you would establish a 认为他们确实知道你的或者如果他们不知道未来会怎样
yourself because you would establish a policy of automatically selling 他们必须像他们那样行事，因为
policy of automatically selling 他们承认他们不会，他们会被弹跳，我相信你不能
policy of automatically selling portfolio insurance but buying portfolio 知道未来会怎样，你可以
portfolio insurance but buying portfolio 找出最有可能的结果以及它们的可能性以及什么
portfolio insurance but buying portfolio insurance if prices started to fall and 替代结果很可能发生以及它们发生的可能性有多大
insurance if prices started to fall and 极端的结果可能会发生，你可以，所以你可以对世界进行排序
insurance if prices started to fall and all you had to do was fell sell when 进入概率分布，我认为世界上最好的人是
all you had to do was fell sell when 最擅长想象可能性分布的人，但
all you had to do was fell sell when they started to fall except that the 世界上几乎没有什么是决定一切的
they started to fall except that the 不确定和 elroy demson 是伦敦商学院的教授
they started to fall except that the brokers wouldn't answer the phone and 说风险意味着可能发生的事情多于会发生的事情
brokers wouldn't answer the phone and 很少有事情只有一件事会发生，但人们倾向于投资
brokers wouldn't answer the phone and and and it built on itself 在他们知道会发生什么的假设下，我认为
and and it built on itself 这是你可能犯的最大错误之一，你知道马克吐温说过
and and it built on itself so you know the lesson from that is that 不是你不知道的东西会让你被杀，而是你肯定知道的
so you know the lesson from that is that 这不是真的，而且我认为这是非常非常
so you know the lesson from that is that there's no such thing as a sure thing my 重要的是，说我不知道​​并采取行动并没有错
there's no such thing as a sure thing my 因此，大多数人永远不会以这种方式被杀，真正的危险在于
there's no such thing as a sure thing my dad used to tell the story about the 说我知道并假设它是正确的然后
dad used to tell the story about the 错了，你知道在这次会议之后你和我是否要开车去
dad used to tell the story about the inveterate gambler who you know always 巴斯托和我们我可以 但首先我必须去非洲 好吧好吧 但是但是
inveterate gambler who you know always 但是如果我们说如果我们说我们不知道怎么走那么我们就会得到一张地图
inveterate gambler who you know always lost the rent money at the track and 使用 GPS 的指示并缓慢行驶以确保我们不会弄错术语，但是
lost the rent money at the track and 如果我们假设我们知道我们没有得到地图 而不仅仅是因为我们是男人
lost the rent money at the track and finally heard about a race with one 不要问方向，不仅仅是因为我们不使用 GPS 并且我们开得很快
finally heard about a race with one 因为我们有信心 如果事实证明你不知道那么你最终会
finally heard about a race with one horse so he went out he bet all his 非洲 所以重点是我认为了解你的情况非常重要
horse so he went out he bet all his 不知道并采取相应的行动，尊重你不知道的和你
horse so he went out he bet all his money and halfway around the track 关键是你不必知道未来才能成为一名优秀的投资者
money and halfway around the track 尤其是宏观未来 你知道今天有一个伟大的信念
money and halfway around the track the horse jumped over the fence and ran 宏观调控市场，所以你应该弄清楚美联储何时行动
the horse jumped over the fence and ran 阅读让利率上升并停止刺激即将发生的事情
the horse jumped over the fence and ran away not a very sophisticated joke but 欧洲在保持团结以及如何救助外围国家方面
away not a very sophisticated joke but 国家以及中国的增长率是否以及如何低到这些
away not a very sophisticated joke but the point is that there is no sure thing 事情是会推动市场的事情，所以这就是你的地方
the point is that there is no sure thing 现在应该花时间 有趣的难题是
the point is that there is no sure thing and there's certainly no sure thing in 短期内，它们将推动市场，但我相信
and there's certainly no sure thing in 你不了解他们，如果你不了解他们，那你就是在浪费时间
and there's certainly no sure thing in investing and when you hear about a sure 试图了解它们，你应该了解可知的，而可知的包括
investing and when you hear about a sure 在公司方面获得与其他投资者相比的优势
investing and when you hear about a sure thing the best thing to do is run the 工业和证券，这些都是需要努力工作和
thing the best thing to do is run the 技能会得到回报，这些是你现在应该花时间做的事情
thing the best thing to do is run the other way 你上学时提出的观点的跟进情况如何？
other way 商学院其他你经常使用回归分析的东西和
other way and I think the other lesson of that 所以我强调这个问题，霍华德刚刚在这里指出回归
and I think the other lesson of that 分析告诉你未来是基于过去的，如果你还记得
and I think the other lesson of that period of time was interest rates were 霍华德早在 70 年代的一家公司，他们已经支付了超过 120 年的股息
period of time was interest rates were 多年歌手缝纫机，所以他们被评为单身，他们把债券卖给了
period of time was interest rates were rising dramatically going into October 在这个例子中，74 年 1 月的市场很明显，如果你看过
rising dramatically going into October 过去的歌手有成长，但霍华德在这里确定的未来
rising dramatically going into October of 1987 and if you fully understood that 安息吧，这是 1960 年代和 70 年代女性的解放，可能是女性
of 1987 and if you fully understood that 会像他们一样在家缝纫，也许是歌手的未来
of 1987 and if you fully understood that you can't have stocks continuing to go 这不会是过去，因此那些债券
you can't have stocks continuing to go 随着人们发现这一点，我认为这一点在 12 个月内交易了 a35
you can't have stocks continuing to go up and interest rates continuing to rise 我只想强调这一章知道你不知道的是
up and interest rates continuing to rise 重要因为如果你对金融服务行业感兴趣
up and interest rates continuing to rise which would require a greater discount 霍华德只是说在你认为冒险的地方不会亏钱
which would require a greater discount 当你认为你没有真正承担任何风险时，它就是在赔钱
which would require a greater discount on future earnings and as Howard said 改变行为，真正改变的是 70 年代的漂亮 50
on future earnings and as Howard said 把钱放在信托里是不安全的，这真的是这个时期
on future earnings and as Howard said you had an anomaly in the marketplace 在 80 年代后期，你认为安全的东西又一次赔钱
you had an anomaly in the marketplace 和 3A 债券，你在货币市场基金中亏本，不管它是什么
you had an anomaly in the marketplace and so Howard and I grew up in the 1960s 这真的是改变行为的原因，因为你试图不采取
and so Howard and I grew up in the 1960s 风险让我们再选一个我可以告诉你一件事关于风险我支持
and so Howard and I grew up in the 1960s in business schools you would have 大约 81 年我接受了一个叫做金融新闻网的采访，它使用了
in business schools you would have 上电视，他们对我说，当你知道的时候，你怎么能投资垃圾债券
in business schools you would have studied about how the market is perfect 有人要破产了，出于某种原因，我得到了答案
studied about how the market is perfect 我说看起来美国最保守的公司是生命
studied about how the market is perfect you know it's efficient it's perfect and 保险公司当他们知道人们的生命安全时，他们如何为人们的生命投保
you know it's efficient it's perfect and 所有人都会死，但他们如何做到这一点第一，正如你所说的关键是风险
you know it's efficient it's perfect and this period of time in 1987 always made 他们知道他们知道他们会死这确实来自我们拥有的一切
this period of time in 1987 always made 有人死了二号，他们可以分析风险，所以他们让你得到一个
this period of time in 1987 always made you wonder if the markets perfect why is 物理数字三 这是风险 他们可以多样化 他们不仅为人们提供保险
you wonder if the markets perfect why is 在圣安地列斯断层或仅跳伞者或仅吸烟者和人数
you wonder if the markets perfect why is it trading 20% below the next day from 4 如果他们认为你是，他们可能会获得丰厚的报酬来接受他们
it trading 20% below the next day from 将在 80 岁时死去，然后他们根据您会的假设向您出售保单
it trading 20% below the next day from the day before if it was perfect and I 70 岁死，如果你死在 80 岁，他们会好起来，如果你死在 70 岁
the day before if it was perfect and I 这是一个富矿所以关键是如果你了解风险并且你意识到
the day before if it was perfect and I and I think this gave you another rise 其中，您可以对资产进行正确定价，并且可以讨价还价，所以让我们开始吧
and I think this gave you another rise 霍华德在这一点上，您可能只是将其解释为一家人寿保险公司
and I think this gave you another rise just like the 1970 period 做他们的分析和你做信用分析没有什么不同
just like the 1970 period 试图根据我们的统计数据确定您的预期寿命
just like the 1970 period particularly between 73 and 76 caused 改善我们的治疗，你的生命会延长，所以如果我卖了你的生命
particularly between 73 and 76 caused 保险 这对人寿保险公司来说是非常积极的，因为你还活着
particularly between 73 and 76 caused the explosion of mutual funds it was 如果我给你一份年金，只要你付给你
the explosion of mutual funds it was 你要活着，然后我在另一边，然后我要付钱给你
the explosion of mutual funds it was this period in 1987 that began really 比我预期的要长，但他们正试图分析他们的想法
this period in 1987 that began really 是冒险让我们选择另一个我最喜欢的章节霍华德有感觉
this period in 1987 that began really the acceleration of hedge funds from 因为我们站得好的地方可能会 - 我相信未来是
the acceleration of hedge funds from 不可预测 没有什么可以证明关于未来的我们不能
the acceleration of hedge funds from traditional managers could you hedge 从宏观角度了解未来，在我们公司，我们不进行投资
traditional managers could you hedge 基于对宏观的预测，但这是一个挑战，因为
traditional managers could you hedge could you find people to be short and 投资 它正在为未来做出决定 它的定位是
could you find people to be short and 投资组合赚钱，希望将来能赚钱，所以如果
could you find people to be short and long 你如果你的工作是唯一有未来的你无法知道未来
long 这是否意味着这是一场沉船，我相信我们永远不知道在哪里
long Howard what about the tech bubble let's 我们要去，但我们肯定不知道我们在哪里，我们不能很
Howard what about the tech bubble let's 有助于了解未来，但我们可以非常有帮助地了解当前
Howard what about the tech bubble let's move forward about another 12 or 13 条件，我们尝试做的是我所说的测量温度
move forward about another 12 or 13 市场并了解气候并主要评估消费者的行为
move forward about another 12 or 13 years 市场参与者，这告诉我们该怎么做我最喜欢的报价来自
years 沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) 说过，其他人处理事务时用的李子越少
years well the tech bubble was you know Mark 我们在处理自己的事务时必须越审慎，如果其他
well the tech bubble was you know Mark 人们喜欢证券并且可以想象一种赔钱的方式，那么我们应该是
well the tech bubble was you know Mark Twain said that history does not repeat 害怕，如果其他人讨厌证券并且害怕
Twain said that history does not repeat 未来想不出赚钱的方法那我们应该转向
Twain said that history does not repeat itself but it does rhyme the themes 进取，我们不必为了弄清楚而猜测未来
itself but it does rhyme the themes 如何定位或组合我们从观察行为中获得的提示
itself but it does rhyme the themes rhyme even though the details are 其他人并推断这意味着什么就足够了 我认为这个区域可能是
rhyme even though the details are 在你们每个经营您的运营公司的人身上都看到了地狱
rhyme even though the details are different the tech bubble was just like 当洛克希德进入洛克希德时，如果我们回到历史，你知道吗？
different the tech bubble was just like Martin Marietta 今天他们本可以选择的商用飞机业务
different the tech bubble was just like the nifty 50 people believe that these 通用电气制造他们的发动机他们本可以选择联合飞机，但他们选择了
the nifty 50 people believe that these 劳斯莱斯和 unn 做过的一件事以及为什么他们不在
the nifty 50 people believe that these were great companies that they were 今天的商业空中消防业务是他们发现他们不能
were great companies that they were 在世界 Roy's 破产后交付他们的飞机
were great companies that they were going to change the world and as a 不要乘坐没有引擎的飞机 他们非常惊讶，因此
going to change the world and as a 洛克希德选择了一家实力较弱的公司来承担更大的风险
going to change the world and as a consequence it didn't matter what you 财务上有问题，然后洛克希德有问题，很多人
consequence it didn't matter what you 正在建设项目的人有时会将事情交给分包商
consequence it didn't matter what you paid for and guess what 然后出现问题，因此风险可以以运营方式或作为
paid for and guess what 霍华德在投资组合中说让我们谈谈你经常不知道的事情
paid for and guess what collectively they changed the world the 谈论当一个人谈论投资时，那是运气好吧
collectively they changed the world the 欣赏好运气的作用 未来 我的意思是我认为这是其中之一
collectively they changed the world the world has no resemblance to what it was 最有趣的话题未来不存在未来只是一个范围
world has no resemblance to what it was pasa 能力它不像有一些
world has no resemblance to what it was 20 years ago technologically and yet if 未来将要发生的事件，并且该事件存在于 Prospect 中
20 years ago technologically and yet if 今天，可以预见的是，可能会发生很多不同的事情
20 years ago technologically and yet if you invested in most of those companies 在未来，鉴于迪普森说更多的事情可能会发生
you invested in most of those companies 我们必须明白，在很大程度上，结果将是
you invested in most of those companies you lost all your money I think this is 受运气和随机性支配，有一本很棒的书叫愚弄
you lost all your money I think this is 由美国宇航局尼古拉斯写给实验室的随机性，该实验室谈论世界
you lost all your money I think this is a really important point I just want to 这种不确定的不确定意义，如果你读过的话，哪个是第一
a really important point I just want to 我想你会确信你的第一不知道未来
a really important point I just want to emphasize that Howard is made in the 持有不知道未来会发生什么不应该表现得好像你可以知道什么
emphasize that Howard is made in the 未来会发生，也许更有趣的是它会让你相信
emphasize that Howard is made in the late 1960s Merrill Lynch put out a 当你回顾过去的事件时，你会发现有一种倾向说是的
late 1960s Merrill Lynch put out a 未来是不确定的它还没有发生但过去已经结束了
late 1960s Merrill Lynch put out a report listing the 30 companies in the 历史 我们知道发生了什么 我们知道该怎么做 但
report listing the 30 companies in the 关键是过去在很大程度上是由运气决定的，所以列夫使用
report listing the 30 companies in the technology industry and they were 著名投资人的例子，我们这个行业到处都是
technology industry and they were 当你将事实与事实结合起来时，以连续正确的方式而闻名
technology industry and they were recommending the computer industry would 大部分历史都是随机性的产物，那么你就会明白
recommending the computer industry would 历史可能不会告诉我们任何你看到的投资者的记录
recommending the computer industry would increase one hundredfold by the end of 有一个伟大的一年这并不意味着他是一个伟大的投资者，这意味着也许
increase one hundredfold by the end of 他很幸运，也许他在他的投资组合中占据了一个令人发指的位置并且是
increase one hundredfold by the end of the century out of those 30 companies 受到青睐，因为发生了不该发生的事情，我们有一个
the century out of those 30 companies 共同的朋友布鲁斯和布鲁斯和我玩了很多西洋双陆棋
the century out of those 30 companies within 15 years only one was in the 而且他还经常急切地指出不可能的事情都会发生
within 15 years only one was in the 时间和可能的事情不会一直发生，所以当你看到
within 15 years only one was in the computer business so they were a hundred 结果你不知道是运气还是技巧，直到你看到一个长字符串，如果
computer business so they were a hundred 某人可以做出决定 100 个决定，并且其中 70 个或 80 个是正确的
computer business so they were a hundred percent right in the enormous growth of 在很长一段时间内，你会开始相信这是技巧而不是
percent right in the enormous growth of 走路，但你知道我认为成功的三个要素
percent right in the enormous growth of technology in the computer industry 迈克进取的时机和技巧，如果你有足够的进取心
technology in the computer industry 正确的时间你不需要太多的技能，但你知道从长远来看运气和
technology in the computer industry however 29 of the 30 companies they pick 尤其是好时机的运气被冲淡了，这就是技巧的时候
however 29 of the 30 companies they pick 表面上让我们来看看这个运气的概念，霍华德谈到
however 29 of the 30 companies they pick were no longer either in business or in 随机性 克林顿总统决定竞选公职，乔治布什第一个
were no longer either in business or in 有超过 80% 的支持率，但罗斯佩罗也在竞选，罗斯
were no longer either in business or in the computer business I think from that 佩罗不太可能竞选乔治·布什连任总统
the computer business I think from that 总统，所以当你看到它时，历史说得很好，也许是其他人
the computer business I think from that standpoint and I remember Howard at that 竞选总统，它极大地改变了历史进程
standpoint and I remember Howard at that 一个给你或者我只是想完成总统我想我们会
standpoint and I remember Howard at that period of time when someone will want 同一个地方，然后拉尔夫·纳德跑了，当阿尔·戈尔在跑步或阿尔·戈尔时
period of time when someone will want 本来是美国总统，所以事实上有一个
period of time when someone will want you to invest in a technology company 没有机会赢得任何机会的个人，但无论出于何种原因和您
you to invest in a technology company 可能会说拉尔夫·纳德更喜欢有戈尔总统
you to invest in a technology company and say well it sounds interesting could 但如果他更喜欢我们的总统，他为什么要竞选总统？
and say well it sounds interesting could 无论是 1% 还是半个 1% 或 2% 或 3% 历史上的这个问题我认为
and say well it sounds interesting could we read it and they would say well if 霍华德说当你回去时，你并不总是看脚注
we read it and they would say well if 历史上发生了什么让酒店名人谈论的事情发生了
we read it and they would say well if you have to read it you won't get a 他所谓的另类历史
you have to read it you won't get a 合理地可能发生但没有发生，当你甚至回顾历史时，你
you have to read it you won't get a chance to invest because when you fully 必须意识到这种可能性是亚历山大大帝伟大的，因为他是
chance to invest because when you fully 一位伟大的将军和战略家，还是他说我确定要下雨了
chance to invest because when you fully subscribed or it's it seems a little bit 下雨了，这让他成为赢家，在这种情况下，他能不能再做一次，你知道
subscribed or it's it seems a little bit 我要使用的例子是在上次总统选举中
subscribed or it's it seems a little bit like the high-yield bond market today 相信 16% 的人表示，对
like the high-yield bond market today 飓风桑迪是决定他们投票的最重要的事情
like the high-yield bond market today doesn't it 当然，这大概意味着他们投票支持奥巴马，因为你 468 无法根据桑迪和奥巴马赢得 3% 的优势投票给他的对手
well I don't think I don't think it's 那么这是否意味着如果桑迪没有发生，奥巴马就不会成为总统
well I don't think I don't think it's 它所做的数字可能不准确，尽管我会说
well I don't think I don't think it's quite as dramatic and and and when you 还有一种说法是霍华德，我越努力越幸运
quite as dramatic and and and when you 真的，所以如果你是一个桥牌玩家，你可以数牌，你可以
quite as dramatic and and and when you buy a bond some guy you know I got it I 明白你很有可能弄清楚里面有什么
buy a bond some guy you know I got it I 每个人的手都不看，通过做一些事情
buy a bond some guy you know I got it I have to tell you that it went after the 我们确实知道的事情和人口统计数据我们知道有多少人
have to tell you that it went after the 十年后将是 25 岁，直到我们弄清楚如何更快地衰老
have to tell you that it went after the nifty 50 thing didn't work out so well 一个很好的理解，例如加利福尼亚，我们是数字
nifty 50 thing didn't work out so well 一个种族群体将是具有拉丁美洲血统的人等等，所以我们
nifty 50 thing didn't work out so well is when I transferred to money 确实拥有可以使自己处于可以接受的位置的知识
is when I transferred to money 获得局外人的收入或幸运，因为你已经完成了
is when I transferred to money management at Citibank from research and 你的家庭作业，你已经定位了自己，还有很多事情你
management at Citibank from research and 知道我可能有一点不同的意见霍华德然后我觉得有
management at Citibank from research and I was put in the bond department they 边际上几乎没有惊喜 惊喜使一切变得不同 是的
I was put in the bond department they 但如果你坐下来想想什么是没有那么多惊喜的
I was put in the bond department they wanted to keep me away from stocks and I 我们不知道中国将成为世界上最大的经济体
wanted to keep me away from stocks and I 当我以为你知道的时候我不知道我不知道霍华德我不知道
wanted to keep me away from stocks and I got a call in August of 78 and they said 现在是 8 月或 9 月，但你知道我做到了，我认为你从来没有加入过
got a call in August of 78 and they said 我们霍华德多年前诺曼李尔曾经有过这些会议
got a call in August of 78 and they said there's some guy named Milken or 每个人都必须带上他们的世界专家，而我是其中之一
there's some guy named Milken or 专家，但我对加州理工学院的科学家和他的科学家如此着迷
there's some guy named Milken or something out in California and he deals 当时的投资策略这是在 70 年代太短了
something out in California and he deals 所有的伤亡公司股票，因为他已经发现将会有
something out in California and he deals with high-yield bonds can you figure out 这场大地震将摧毁大部分
with high-yield bonds can you figure out 南加州的房地产和将破产的伤亡公司所以
with high-yield bonds can you figure out what that is and the world didn't know 我刚问他什么时候离开加利福尼亚，他告诉我他没有
what that is and the world didn't know 让你知道到 1978 年我说肯定不会在 77 年等发生
what that is and the world didn't know and so you know I met with Mike and he 你会在身边，所以有些事情人们说你知道
and so you know I met with Mike and he 比较荒谬但这里有一个说法是努力工作
and so you know I met with Mike and he explained to me that if you buy be rated 研究，我想你会同意霍华德是基础国家
explained to me that if you buy be rated 把自己置于引用的位置 幸运 知道可知但事实并非如此
explained to me that if you buy be rated bonds and they survive then all the 努力工作就是在正确的地方努力工作 靠信用努力工作
bonds and they survive then all the 研究一下，如果你在 69 年从监狱长那里退学，而不是
bonds and they survive then all the surprises will be on the upside if they 做你所做的你会被一个说迈克的招聘人员接洽
surprises will be on the upside if they 我们发现在 NFL 中我们可以预测你知道我为一堆
surprises will be on the upside if they survive are still the set of the three 赌徒，我们发现你可以预测 NF 的结果
survive are still the set of the three 足球比赛，如果只有你知道哪支球队会赢得掷硬币，所以我们
survive are still the set of the three keywords and if you buy high-yield bonds 打算给你问射线超级计算机你记得那些和 100 个博士和一个
keywords and if you buy high-yield bonds 大量的研究预算，你所要做的就是预测抛硬币，如果我们
keywords and if you buy high-yield bonds today at their poultry yield of five 知道如果硬币是公平的那将是浪费时间所以有些事情是
today at their poultry yield of five 浪费时间，有些事情是可以知道的，是的，努力工作和技能
today at their poultry yield of five percent and they survive you'll make 将在可知的而不是另一个上得到回报让我们把注意力转向
percent and they survive you'll make 在建立您的组织或任何方面非常重要的事情
percent and they survive you'll make five percent and well you could get some 组织，这就是人力资本，你如何吸引你如何留住你
five percent and well you could get some 建立一种文化，因为它是一种投资文化，也是我们与我们交谈的文化
five percent and well you could get some upside right they could get acquired by 关于橡树树的建设的一点点我们的方法第一是
upside right they could get acquired by 制定我们的信条，以便在那里工作的每个人都知道我们的立场
upside right they could get acquired by a double a they could some good things 并且知道我们的指导信念是什么以及对它们的期望是什么
a double a they could some good things 结果第一第二我们一直强调有一个和谐的环境
a double a they could some good things could happen and in fact you know most 和团队合作，所以我们公司的人没有个人资产负债表，你
could happen and in fact you know most 知道有很多机构在那里你经营一些钱，如果你赚
could happen and in fact you know most people are terrified of rising interest 钱你会得到奖金，如果你不赚钱，你就不会得到奖金，就像
people are terrified of rising interest 他们说你吃你杀的东西，这完全取决于个人然后我们喜欢
people are terrified of rising interest rates because they because it depresses 有一个鼓励人们齐心协力的组织
rates because they because it depresses 所以每个人都会根据他们团队的表现以及公司如何完成其​​中一项工作而获得报酬
rates because they because it depresses the price of a bond temporarily but if 重要的组成部分是他强调个人成就和
the price of a bond temporarily but if 甚至在某种程度上团队成就并引入了公司的元素
the price of a bond temporarily but if the credit is good it still goes back to 在私募股权的另类世界中，我们的企业中有很多人吗
the credit is good it still goes back to 等等谁分享他们的基金，如果基金也是如此，但很少见
the credit is good it still goes back to par when you get paid off and in the 我们很少分享一家公司的整体盈利能力
par when you get paid off and in the 你知道当我们从一开始我们的座右铭是我们想拥有更少
par when you get paid off and in the meantime the coupons are reinvested at a 越来越少的公司创始人价值越来越高，我们
meantime the coupons are reinvested at a 认为这会让它变得越来越值钱，所以你知道有
meantime the coupons are reinvested at a higher rate than you anticipated so it's 今天我们五个人 我们在第一年年底开始 我们已经十八岁了
higher rate than you anticipated so it's 谁在 26 年末的两年内拥有这家公司，以此类推。
higher rate than you anticipated so it's really not bad news so you could do a 95 到时候哦 7 滚来滚去，我们今天拥有 85 个人
really not bad news so you could do a 我县有一百七十人不计他们出版商不
really not bad news so you could do a little better than five if they survive 计算公众所以你知道我们一直认为这是非常
little better than five if they survive 重要所以我会说你知道，这本书最重要的事情是
little better than five if they survive and the point is that nobody ever went 真的来自我在 oh-two 中写的备忘录，称为最重要的事情之一
and the point is that nobody ever went 其中说如果你经营一家投资公司，你必须这样做，或者我认为任何
and the point is that nobody ever went broke making five percent so you could 公司你必须代表其他东西，而不仅仅是赚钱你必须
broke making five percent so you could 如果你经营一家投资管理公司，你必须代表
broke making five percent so you could wish you had more but if if it turns out 管理资产以外的东西你代表什么所以我
wish you had more but if if it turns out 认为列举自己的立场对招聘团队有很大帮助
wish you had more but if if it turns out if high-yield bonds today turn out to 个性可以与您的信条一致的玩家，然后
if high-yield bonds today turn out to 努力营造一个强调团队行为的和谐环境 I
if high-yield bonds today turn out to have been a mistake and I know there's 想回到我们刚才说的事情上，因为我认为这是
have been a mistake and I know there's 重要的是你是否要拥有一台超级计算机来弄清楚
have been a mistake and I know there's been discussion at this conference of 无论是掷硬币还是如何押注游戏和建立您的公司以及
been discussion at this conference of 代表成为投资者的优势之一或
been discussion at this conference of whether it is a mistake it's not going 融资，如果你支持帮助建立投入资金的伟大公司
whether it is a mistake it's not going 好公司，你显然正在处理我们社会的繁荣
whether it is a mistake it's not going to be a big mistake 很多方式，所以对我来说，这真的是我们如何赋予个人权力的选择
to be a big mistake 我们如何将资金交到有能力的人手中？
to be a big mistake it's not going to be a fatal mistake and 社会将受益，我想你知道你的公司特别
it's not going to be a fatal mistake and 专注于如何重建公司而不仅仅是如何投资
it's not going to be a fatal mistake and what you have to be aware of in the 原来你怎么把技能带到那个显然是你的搭档布鲁斯
what you have to be aware of in the 今天的汽车是 Trivium 的董事长，这是一家有错误的公司
what you have to be aware of in the investment business is what carries you 今天的资本结构和错误的策略，所以当你
investment business is what carries you 今天找人你要找什么品质
investment business is what carries you out and it's not going to be credit 因为对于一个有朝一日可能成为橡树合作伙伴的人，我认为
out and it's not going to be credit 建设性的态度，你知道我正如你所说的，尤其是在减压领域
out and it's not going to be credit worthy bonds that you bought at a 5% 我们通过将资本结构错误的公司退回来赚钱
worthy bonds that you bought at a 5% 通过重组或错误管理或错误管理的生存能力
worthy bonds that you bought at a 5% yield I think Howard just made another 那不是我们的那不是我们的主要重点但是是的这是另一种方式
yield I think Howard just made another 这样做，我们寻找想要双赢解决方案的人和你
yield I think Howard just made another really important point I want 知道我相信如果你回顾 207 年我们遇到麻烦的方式之一
really important point I want 与您之前谈论的抵押贷款证券
really important point I want maybe heavy emphasized Howard in many 道德规范 普遍的道德规范是老板走进这些办公室
maybe heavy emphasized Howard in many 麻省理工学院的五名博士，把一堆抵押贷款扔在桌子上，他说这是一个
maybe heavy emphasized Howard in many ways if you buy a long term asset it's 向没有提供收入或收入的人提供的一堆抵押贷款
ways if you buy a long term asset it's 他们的资产负债表看你能得到多高的评级，所以他们试图
ways if you buy a long term asset it's really not the coupon on the bond it's 把它切成抵押贷款支持的证券，如果他们能继续下去
really not the coupon on the bond it's 平均得到一个 A 这将是好的平均双倍更好的三倍
really not the coupon on the bond it's the reinvestment rate that's the key and 他们会很棒 没有人说过是的 但是这是一堆垃圾
the reinvestment rate that's the key and 真的是 3A 没有人说过他们玩了一个收视率最大化的游戏
the reinvestment rate that's the key and when interest rates spiked in 1974 我认为这很重要，例如当您重组公司时
when interest rates spiked in 1974 以长期可行的资本结构推出，而不是
when interest rates spiked in 1974 insurance companies like equitable Life 只有一种可以最大化您今天的利润，我们希望有人
insurance companies like equitable Life 谁想为这个过程做出贡献 Howard 我想再问你一个
insurance companies like equitable Life Insurance Company and others wrote 在我们今天结束之前提出一个问题，我们有大约 40 位伟大公司的 CEO
Insurance Company and others wrote 美国围坐在桌子旁，今天每个人都在谈论继承
Insurance Company and others wrote annuities where they were guaranteeing 谁是你的继任者等等，无论是马克·贝尼奥夫还是大卫·西蒙，还是
annuities where they were guaranteeing tilman 42 或者 Steve Bird 等等，或者我们可以用 Steve Jobs 等等
annuities where they were guaranteeing rates for a long period of time so you 会议结束时的其他人 没有
rates for a long period of time so you 一定是替代品好吧，你知道试图得到，就像你说的那样
rates for a long period of time so you could count pound your money as interest 两个或三个标准差有些人不是更多
could count pound your money as interest 杰出的，你不一定取代他们建立你的公司
could count pound your money as interest rates dropped precipitously by 1977 they 你和布鲁斯还有你的搭档很久以前你怎么看待现在的公众
rates dropped precipitously by 1977 they 从这个角度来看公司继任 我认为关键是它不一定是
rates dropped precipitously by 1977 they could no longer reinvest their money at 一对一的替代品，你想找到能够延续下去的人
could no longer reinvest their money at 在我们的案例中将继续将卓越置于数量之上的公司
could no longer reinvest their money at the rates they were guaranteed and they 客户在短期内优先于他们自己的利益，你知道近年来
the rates they were guaranteed and they 我的很多贡献是写备忘录和写书
the rates they were guaranteed and they had a lot of economic challenges and 说这些事情我所谓的继任者不必做
had a lot of economic challenges and 他或她可以通过其他方式做出贡献的那些事情，所以你知道这是我认为的
had a lot of economic challenges and eventually were acquired and merged and 要记住的是再次是价值观和质量，而不是坚持
eventually were acquired and merged and 遵循既定的路线图成功，正如我们你我所看到的，我的意思是我们已经
eventually were acquired and merged and you I'd like you to go into that 在过去的 35 年里，我们一起与许多成功人士打交道，并且
you I'd like you to go into that 如果我对你说迈克有什么秘密你认识的各种各样的人
you I'd like you to go into that reinvestment rate a little bit Howard if 为了成功，我们见过很多不同的人
reinvestment rate a little bit Howard if 变得成功，许多经营伟大公司的人是不同的
reinvestment rate a little bit Howard if you do well it's really I mean you have 有很多人用不同的方式给猫剥皮，但它
you do well it's really I mean you have 必须归结为质量文化，聪明并没有什么坏处，我认为
you do well it's really I mean you have to be a bond oh you have to be a bond 霍华德的另一件事是文化是如此重要，但也不一定
to be a bond oh you have to be a bond 试图打出本垒打，以便在您开始我们今天的讨论时
to be a bond oh you have to be a bond person to understand this now if you 即使它不是很好，它也很好，很好哦，很好，就是这样
person to understand this now if you 正确和霍华德 我要感谢你的巨大贡献和
person to understand this now if you know that most of them have died off 最重要的
know that most of them have died off