弗里曼: 我们生活在真实的世界中吗？ Freeman: Do we live in the real world?
[闹钟响] [ Alarm clock beeps ]
还是一切都只存在于我们思维中？ Or is it all in our minds?
宇宙就是我们看到的那样吗？ Do we see the universe as it is?
还是我们的感觉欺骗了我们？ Or do our senses deceive us?
科学观测揭示了隐藏的现实。 Scientific observation reveals hidden realities.
我们的感觉判断并不可信。 The judgment of our senses cannot be trusted.
[引擎启动] [ Engine revs ]
我们对生命和宇宙的基本设想 And our basic assumptions about life and the universe
可能都是错的。 may be false.
这种存在是幻觉吗？ Is existence an illusion?
现实是真实的吗？ Is reality real?
空间、时间、生命本身, Space,time,life itself.
宇宙的奥秘尽在穿越虫洞。 The secrets of the cosmos lie through the wormhole.
什么才是真实？ What is real?
我们认为日常生活中碰到的一切都是真实。 We assume it's everything we encounter in our daily lives.
但我们又如何能确定 But how can we be certain
我们看到的宇宙就是确实存在的？ the universe we see around us actually exists?
我们又如何知道 And how can we know
我们看到的世界,和别人对世界的看法是否一致？ that the world we see matches what anyone else experiences?
我们的感官感受确实让现实看起来足够真实。 Our senses certainly make reality seem real enough.
这些固态的东西, These things are solid.
但是... But...
假如它们其实不是呢？ What if they actually aren't?
我们认为的现实可能是一个脆弱的幻象, Our reality may be a fragile tissue of illusions
关于我们自身,我们社会, illusions about ourselves,our society,
甚至整个自然界都是幻象。 and even the whole of the natural world.
小时候,一个魔术师来到了我的小镇。 When I was young,a magician came to town.
他表演的很棒。 He was pretty good.
看着他的表演,我开始怀疑自己的双眼是否可靠, Watching him made me doubt the reliability of my own eyes.
无论我多使劲的看,也看不透他是如何做到的。 No matter how hard I looked,I couldn't see how he did it.
我错过了什么？ What was I missing?
而且我为什么会错过这些？ And why was I missing it?
Lawrence Rosenblum是 Lawrence Rosenblum is a Professor
知觉心理学领域的一名教授, of perceptual psychology
就职于加州大学河滨分校。 at the university of California,riverside.
他同样也玩魔术。 He also dabbles in magic.
比起大多数人, More than most,
Larry了解魔术师扭曲现实的手段。 Larry understands the mechanisms magicians use to warp reality.
男人：女士们先生们,欢迎神奇的Larry！ Man: Ladies and gentlemen,the amazing Larry!
Rosenblum: 女士们先生们,大家晚上好。 Rosenblum: Good evening,ladies and gentlemen.
今天晚上,我要告诉你们关于认知感知的一些东西, Tonight,I'd like to teach you a little bit about perception.
这是个什么戏法呢？ How did that trick work?
好吧,当我往上扔球的时候, Well,as I was throwing the ball up,
你们的注意力会跟着我的视线移动, you were following my eyes with your attention.
这一直持续到我最后一次扔球, And that continued through the last throw,
这次其实我并没有扔。 which was not a real throw.
这种误导的手法 That technique of misdirection is just one
只是专业魔术师用的众多手段之一。 of the many techniques that professional magicians use.
弗里曼: 像David Gabbay这样的魔术师用到的戏法 Freeman: Illusionists like David Gabbay perform tricks
一次又一次的欺骗了我们,无论我们离得多近进行观看。 that fool us again and again,no matter how closely we watch.
他们利用了我们大脑想要 They take advantage of our brain's eagerness
弄清这个世界的渴望。 to make sense of the world.
Rosenblum: David并不为我们的大脑创造真实情况, Rosenblum: David's not helping our brains create a reality
而是通过不同的方式引导我们 as much as guiding our attention of the perceptual information
对知觉信息的注意。 in different ways.
通过这种手段,我认为David可以教给我们很多东西。 And in that way,I think that David has a lot to teach us.
弗里曼: David的手法利用了一种心理捷径, Freeman: David's trick exploits a mental shortcut
称为“变形完成”。 called amodal completion.
这是它的工作原理, Here is how it works.
假如你看到了一只兔子, Let's say you see a rabbit.
接着遮住你对于兔子的部分视野, Then your view of the rabbit is partially blocked.
那么这个兔子还在吗？ Is the rabbit still there?
当然在。 Of course.
你这么认为是因为你的大脑 You know that because your brain matches it up
将这个兔子的三维模型 with a three-dimensional model of a rabbit
和你记忆中的兔子整合了起来, you have filed in your memory.
你的大脑补充了无法看到的部分。 Your brain fills in the missing piece.
看！ Voilà!
弗里曼: 我们的思维中储存着千百万个这类模型, Freeman: We have millions of these models stored in our minds.
我们通过这些模型 We use them to assemble
将看起来似乎是连续的世界图景 a seemingly continuous picture of the world
组装成我们认为的真实。 what we think of as reality.
我们的真实感被我们 Our sense of reality is profoundly affected
共同工作的多种感觉深刻影响。 by the way our senses work together.
举个例子... For instance...
Bah,bah,bah,bah...
弗里曼: 你听到了什么？ Freeman: What do you hear?
Bah,bah,bah...
Larry似乎一直在说“Bah,bah,bah.” Larry seems to be saying,"Bah,bah,bah."
但将情况稍加变化就会变成这样, but here's what happens when the picture is changed just a bit.
Fah,fah,fah,fah...
弗里曼: 现在听起来他就像在说“Fah,fah,fah.” Freeman: Now it sounds like he is saying,"Fah,fah,fah."
但闭上眼再听, but close your eyes and listen.
声音其实是没有变的。 The sound hasn't changed.
Larry说的仍然是“Bah,” 发音是“B.” Larry is still saying,"Bah," With a "B."
bah,bah,bah.
在这个例子中,听到“Bah”而看到“Vah”, In the case with an auditory "Bah" And a visual "Vah,"
结果就是视觉信息 what happens is the visual information ends up
优先于听觉信息, overriding the auditory information
因为视觉信息更为显著, because it's so salient.
看东西更容易。 It is so easy to see.
Bah,bah,bah.
而这个例子中,感知脑, And the perceptual brain,in this case,
主要是听觉脑使用这些视觉信息 mostly the auditory brain ends up using that information
将“Bah”变得听起来更像“Vah”, to kind of push the "Bah" to sound more like a "Vah,"
这样就造成了人们 and that's what people end up believing
最终认为自己听到的信息。 they're actually hearing.
弗里曼: 我们脑中有许多不同的感受系统相互作用, Freeman: Many different sensory systems interact within our brains.
我们的思维获取这些信息并整理成事件, Our minds take this information and tell a story about it.
我们称之为现实。 We call it reality.
我们感知的信息比我们能够意识到的多很多, We're perceiving a lot more than we realize.
我之所以这么说是因为 And what I mean by that is
所有的感知信息通道都可将信息 that there are entire channels of information
在我们的意识水平之下 that are getting to the brain
传送到我们的脑中。 underneath our level of awareness.
而在每一次, But at any one time,
你不仅仅是在观看, not only are you seeing something
并集中注意力在你看的东西上, and attending to what you're seeing,
而你并没花精力注意的东西同样影响着你, but what you're not attending to is affecting you as well,
这种影响不仅仅是 and that isn't just from information
你通过眼睛得到的信息, you get through your eyes,
还有从你的耳朵、 but information you get through your ears
鼻子、皮肤得到的信息, and through your nose and through your skin.
所有的这些都在我们观看表演时进行着, And all of that is happening as we're sitting there
体验着我们认为的虚拟“现实”, experiencing what we think is a visual reality.
其他的感觉全都对其有着影响。 The other senses are affecting it all.
弗里曼: 但对于所有的感知来说,有太多的信息我们都错过了。 Freeman: But for all we perceive,there is much we miss.
大多数人有着同样的感知认识, Most of us share the same set of senses.
而有一些人看事物却与旁人非常不同。 Yet some of us see things very differently than others.
我们之中会有人能够看到真实的世界吗？ Can any of us perceive the world as it truly is?
Charles Falco教授是少数可以做到的人, Professor Charles Falco is one of the few who can.
他探索着不可见的世界,而其中的真实我们却都看不到。 He explores the invisible world the reality we can't see.
[相机快门声] [ Camera shutter clicking ]
人类的视觉系统只能捕获 The human vision system only captures a really tiny fraction
光谱中非常小的一个片段。 of the light that's available.
那么这个半身雕塑, If we look at a bust like this,
裸眼看就是红色的, we see it looks red to the naked eye.
但如果我们打上紫外光, But if we image this in the ultraviolet,
这个雕塑就有可能发出荧光, possibly,this bust will fluoresce
这是因为其中的某些化学成分。 because of some of the chemical composition that's in it.
红外光则可以在红色染料中透过很远, Infrared typically penetrates fairly far through red pigment.
这样我们就能看到染料下面到底有什么, So we'll be able to see what's underneath the pigment,
是否存在某些东西位于染料 if there's something between the pigment
和石膏雕塑本身之间。 and the plaster bust itself.
弗里曼: 在他位于亚利桑那大学的实验室中, Freeman: In his laboratory at the university of Arizona,
Charles的实验设备可以用从可见光 Charles had exotic instruments that can examine objects
到不可见光所有波长范围的光 at resolutions across all ranges
检测物体, of visible and invisible light
比如X射线、紫外光、红外光等, x-rays,ultraviolet,infrared,
这类仪器比人眼敏锐 and machines that see millions of times sharper
上百万倍。 than human eyes.
这台电子显微镜可以看到雕塑上,看似光滑的红色染料中的 This electron microscope can read the rough molecular surface
粗糙的分子表面。 of the bust's seemingly smooth red paint.
而他所有“收藏品”中的御宝 The crown jewel of his collection
是一台可以检测原子间空隙的仪器, is a machine that reads the space between atoms,
这可以帮助物理学家以完全不同的方式 giving physicists a completely different way
观测分子是如何构建的。 of looking at how molecules are constructed.
Falco: 如果你只用自己的眼睛, Falco: If you only have your eyes,
看一些东西,你认为你已经了解它了, you look at something,you think you understand it.
可当你用更多的工具来观察它, Turns out that the more tools you have to look at something,
你就又能得到更多的信息。 it reveals much more information.
所以真实是一个远比我们想象的 So reality is a much more complex thing
更为复杂的东西。 than we think about.
我们用越多的手段研究真实, The more ways we have studying of reality,
就越能体会到真实是一个 the more we realize reality is a bigger picture
比我们能够理解的范围更宏大的图景。 than we could possibly have understood before.
弗里曼: 并没有一种进化压力 Freeman: There is no evolutionary pressure
促使某种生物进化到可以看清现实, to create an animal that sees reality as it really is.
我们只进化出了我们需要看到的“真实”, We have evolved to see the reality we need to see.
当我们看到什么东西时,我们的大脑 When we see something,how our brain interprets it
并不会按照进入我们眼球的情况进行说明, isn't usually what exactly is imprinted on our eyeball.
我们不是摄像机, We're not a camera.
我们的视网膜后面还有一个大脑, We have a brain behind our retinas.
这个脑可以处理信息, And the brain processes the information
告诉我们它想看什么。 and tells us what it wants us to see.
我们身边的世界中 There is so much visual information
有太多的视觉信息, in the world around us that it turns out
而大脑给了我们有限的注意焦点, our brain gives us a limited spotlight of attention,
这样我们就能集中注意力于我们面前的事情, where we focus our attention on exactly what's in front of us,
忽略掉其他地方正在发生的事。 ignoring things that go on everywhere else.
弗里曼: 当你的注意力被什么东西吸引时, Freeman: When your attention's attracted by something,
神经细胞就会增强 neurons enhance the sensitivity
你对视场中央区域的敏感性, of the central region of your field of vision
并抑制对周围区域的敏感性。 and suppress the sensitivity of the surrounding regions.
我们就这样通过双眼看世界。 And this is how we see the world through binoculars.
我们只能看到 We see only a tiny fraction
面前的真实的一点点片段。 of the reality that's in front of us.
有过多的感知信息, There is so much sensory information,
过多的视觉信息, so much visual information
将它们全部处理实际上是不可能的。 that,in fact,it's impossible to process it all.
所以每个人的大脑、每个动物的大脑, So everyone's brain,every animal's brain
都被进化设置为只接受 has been programmed by evolution to accept
信息的一小部分并对其进行处理, only a small fraction of the information and process it.
否则就会过载。 Otherwise,there'd be total overload.
弗里曼: 但真实并不是单纯的决定于你或我是如何看世界的, Freeman: But reality isn't defined solely by how you or I see the world
而是我们共享的东西。 it's something we share.
我们靠别人的观察 We check our observations
来检验自己的观察, against the observations of others.
如果我们在什么是真实的问题上存在分歧, If we didn't agree on what is real and what is not,
社会就不能运作。 society couldn't function.
但这个人认为 But this man believes
我们共同认为的现实才是最大的幻象。 our shared reality is the greatest illusion of all.
我并不是真实的, I am not real.
你看到的我只是屏幕上上千个发着光的 You are looking at thousands of glowing,colored dots
彩色点组成, on a screen.
这些点的模式 The pattern of these dots changes
在每30分之一秒后改变一次, once every 30th of a second,
这样就创造了运动的影像。 creating the illusion of movement.
而我也并不是现在就说着话, And I'm not saying these words right now.
这是录制后的影像, This is a captured impression
而其中我说的话都是过去发生的, of something I said in the recent past.
真是这样吗？ Or is it?
如果我这么做呢？ What if I did this?
当画面上说“Live(直播)”, You've been conditioned
你就会依此认为 to believe that,when something says "Live,"
这是此时此刻正在发生的。 it's really happening right now.
我们的社会也被这些共同的信条所同步, Our society is tied together by these shared beliefs.
但这是何种程度的真实？ But how much of it is real?
有多少又是复杂精致的幻觉？ And how much is just an elaborate fantasy?
对于他的大半生来说, For much of his life,
科学家兼哲学家的Jim Baggott scientist and philosopher Jim Baggott has been haunted
都被“什么才是真实的”这一简单问题所困惑。 by a simple question what is reality?
所有的真实都是我们脑中创造出的幻象。 All reality is a fantasy created in our own heads.
我们都被禁闭于自己的思维之中, We are locked in the prison of our own minds,
这样的结果就是,我们为自己创造了一个 and as a consequence,we have to create for ourselves
基于我们能够接受什么的 an understanding of what reality is like
自己对于现实的理解, on the basis of what we can absorb,
我们能够学到什么,能够看到什么。 what we can learn,what we can see.
[门嘎吱作响] [ Door creaks ]
当我们用眼睛看时, So when we see with our eyes,
我们察觉到的并不是真实本身, what we perceive,of course,is not reality as such.
毕竟我们的大脑只是一块 Our brains are,after all,just clumps of tissue
重约3.5磅的粘稠组织, weighing about 3? pounds,with a consistency of cold porridge.
只有当我们在意识思维中 It's only when we interpret the electrical signals
通过脑产生的电信号 generated by our brain in our conscious mind
才创造出了我们每个人的真实。 do we create our individual reality.
这就引出一个问题, That begs the question
当这些电信号都关闭后会发生什么？ what happens when those electrical signals are shut off?
好吧,我马上就知道答案了。 Well,I'm about to find out.
弗里曼: Jim将会关闭自己的听觉和视觉 Freeman: Jim's going to have his hearing and vision blocked out
十五分钟, for 15 minutes.
这种简单的消除感觉的形式 This simple form of sensory deprivation
将他带入到另一种现实中。 sends him into an alternate reality.
他失去了时间观念... He loses track of time...
[闹钟响] [ Alarm clock rings ]
...并经历了生动的幻觉。 ...and experiences vivid hallucinations.
在没有感觉输入的情况下, In the absence of sensory input,
Jim“制造世界的机器(脑)”创建了一个 Jim's world-making machinery manufactures a reality
与他身体外部世界毫无联系的现实。 with no connection to the world outside his body.
Baggott: 失去了我的两个最主要的感觉输入后, Baggott: Deprived of two of my most important senses,
我的脑从其他感觉上勉强拼凑出了 what happens is the brain scrambles for inputs
感觉输入。 from other senses.
嘴中的味觉就会变得敏感, So you become very conscious of the taste in your mouth
我躺着的床也变得坚硬。 and the hardness of this bed that I'm lying on.
我开始进入一种梦一般的朦胧状态中, I began to drift into some dreamlike states.
但当我的眼睛 But then I became aware
重新睁开后, that me eyes are,in fact,wide open,
我就完全清醒并具有清晰的意识了。 and I'm fully awake and conscious.
弗里曼: 当你感觉被关闭了, Freeman: When your senses are shut off,
你的脑就创造了你自己版本的现实。 your brain makes up its own version of reality.
但根据Jim的理论,我们全都生活在一个虚假的现实中, But according to Jim,we all live in a false reality
一个由社会创造的充满幻象的超现实, a hyperreality created by society,
它变得对于我们来说 filled with illusions that have become more real to us
比起周围的物质世界更为真实。 than the physical world around us.
我们都是这个思维共同体的一部分, We are all part of a community of minds,
这个共同体是一个由数十亿个大脑 a world created by billions of brains working in concert
一致工作数千年的世界。 over thousands of years.
现代的消费社会 The modern consumer society
是我们集体思维进化出的,使我们这个物种前进的 is the latest twist our mass mind has evolved
最新形式的对真实的扭曲, to advance the species.
金钱位于这个社会的中心, Money lies at the heart of this society.
但从许多角度来说, But in many ways,
这才是我们所有创造中最超现实的。 it is the most hyperreal of all of our creations.
Baggott: 这里我有一张50美元和50英镑的纸币样张, Baggott: I have here a $50 bill and a 50￡ note.
现在的汇率告诉我们 Current currency-conversion rates tells us that the pound
英镑的汇率是美元的1.5倍, is about 1.5 times greater in value than the dollar.
而这些小片纸张却像咒符一样 And these little pieces of paper hold such a spell
主宰我们的生活, over our lives.
它们几乎决定了 They tell us whether almost
谁能活下去,谁将会死去。 who is gonna live,who is gonna die.
但价值确是 But,really,value is something
我们创造的超现实的一部分, that's part of the hyperreality that we've created,
而我并不知道这片由四分之三的棉纤维 and I don't know what the real value of a piece of paper
和四分之一亚麻做成的纸的真实价值, made of three parts cotton fiber and one part linen really is,
但我可以告诉你,它的价值绝对远小于50美元或50英镑。 but I can tell you it's a lot less than $50 or 50￡.
弗里曼: 如果我们不相信金钱所代表的价值,它们则一文不值。 Freeman: Money would be valueless if we didn't all believe in it.
我们共同认为的现实 Our shared reality is an illusion
其实是一个我们努力在维持的幻象, we have to struggle to maintain.
如果我们不严格遵守其中的规则, And if we fail to strictly observe its rules,
现实就会轰然崩塌。 reality can crumble.
Baggott: 一旦这些结构就这么出现在这里, Baggott: Once these structures are out there,as it were,
发展出属于自己的规则, they develop,you know,laws of their own.
发展出自己的生命, They develop a life of their own almost.
而对这些规则的误读, And that misinterpreting those rules
对规则的扭曲和改变, and distorting those rules and changing those rules
我们就这样将自己置于险境。 we do that at our peril.
弗里曼: 也许没有更好的例子 Freeman: There is perhaps no greater example
能比得上最近全球金融系统的崩溃。 than the recent near collapse of the global financial system.
[ATM机响] [ Atm beeping ]
Baggott: 2008年全球银行业危机 Baggott: The global banking crisis of 2008
起因就是银行家玩弄这些“游戏规则”, resulted from bankers playing with the rules of the game.
作为结果, And as a consequence,
金钱的价值基本一夜之间就被毁掉了。 the value of money,literally overnight,was destroyed.
[ Bell ringing ]
女性：华尔街在创纪录的跌幅后陷入了恐慌. Woman: Wall street is a panic after a record drop.
弗里曼: 在这短暂的时刻,人们意识到了 Freeman: For a brief moment,people became conscious
金钱的本质只是一个幻象。 that money is essentially an illusion.
但如果我们不再相信全球货币体系, But if we stop believing in the global monetary system,
社会就会崩溃, society could collapse.
所以我们选择了继续相信, So we choose to keep on believing.
文明也基本屈服了。 Civilization was brought almost to its knees.
但文明并不会消失的这一事实, But the fact that civilization didn't disappear
也许在告诉我们这种超现实, perhaps tells us that hyperreality,
尽管它只是存在于我们的思维中, despite the fact that it exists only in our minds,
这种超现实仍难以消除。 is still too tough to kill.
弗里曼: 为什么我们这么容易的就生活在虚幻的世界中了？ Freeman: Why is it so easy for us to live in a fantasy world?
究竟是什么让作为人类的我们 What is it about being human
被迫创造了这个超现实？ that compels us to create a hyperreality?
是社会压力吗？ Is it social pressure?
[婴儿哭泣] [ Baby crying ]
还是我们与生俱来的？ Or is it born into us?
这位神经科学家认为 This neuroscientist believes the answer is buried
答案就在我们脑中, deep in our brains
我们对现实的拒绝也许是 and our denial of reality may be essential
我们这个物种能够生存的本质。 to the survival of our species.
人类大脑喜欢编故事, The human brain is a storyteller.
它告诉我们关于事物的故事, It tells us tales about the way things are,
这样我们就能想象事物可能会是什么样的。 and it allows us to imagine the way things could be.
但如果我们告诉自己的故事都不是真的呢？ But what if the stories we tell ourselves aren't true?
我们又如何知道呢？ How would we know?
假如所有的大脑都联系起来讲述虚假的现实、 What if all our brains are wired to lie about reality
虚假的生活场所呢？ and our place in it?
这个人正要骑着他的摩托车 This man is about to ride his motorcycle
穿越伦敦街头的交通堵塞。 through the traffic-clogged streets of London.
当他这么做的时候,他就会进入另一种现实之中。 When he does,he will enter an alternate reality.
[引擎发动] [ Engine turns over ]
[引擎旋转] [ Engine revs ]
摩托车仅占了 Motorcyclists make up less than one percent
不足百分之一的英国交通, of vehicle traffic in Britain.
但却造成了总死亡及重伤人数的14%。 But they suffer 14% of total deaths and serious injuries.
美国的骑手在车祸中也会比汽车内的人 Bikers in the U.S. are about 37 times more likely
高出37倍的死亡率。 to die in a crash than people in a car.
[警笛鸣叫] [ Siren wails ]
但对于这个人来说,这些数字并不适用, But in this man's reality,those numbers don't apply,
起码不适用于他。 at least not to him.
尽管知道这些残酷的数据, Despite knowing the grim statistics,
他就像数百万个骑手一样, he,like millions of other bikers,
继续骑着他的摩托车。 continues to ride his motorcycle.
为什么有这么多人继续无视这种风险？ Why do so many people consistently disregard risk?
在英国伦敦大学学院, At university college London,
神经科学家Tali Sharot发现 neuroscientist Tali Sharot has discovered
在人脑中存在一种 there's a reality-distortion mechanism
现实扭曲机制。 built into the human brain.
她写了一本关于这种机制的书,叫《乐观的偏见》, She wrote a book about it called "The optimism bias."
乐观的偏见 so the optimism bias
是我们在生活中过高估计积极事物的倾向, is our tendency to overestimate the positive things in our lives
以及低估生活中负面事物的可能性。 and underestimate the likelihood of negative things in our lives.
比如说, So,for example,
人们会过高估计自己的成功概率, people overestimate their success professionally,
自己的寿命, their longevity.
人们会低估 They underestimate their likelihood
患癌或离婚的可能性。 of suffering from cancer,of getting divorced.
我们比真实的更为乐观, We are more optimistic than realistic,
大多数人并不会去注意现实, but most of us are oblivious to the fact.
我们并不会意识到现实。 We're not aware of it.
弗里曼: 有80%的人都会受到这种偏见的影响, Freeman: Nearly 80% of the population is affected by this bias.
这在活动中很容易发现, It's easy to see it in action,
Tali就随机用一组学生进行了证明。 as Tali demonstrates with a random group of students.
我会列出许多能力与特征, So,I'm gonna give you a list of abilities and characteristics,
我想让你们思考这些能力, and I want you to think,for each of these abilities,
选出自己更擅长哪种能力。 where you stand relative to the rest of the population.
好的,第一种能力是良好的与他人相处。 So,the first one is getting along well with others.
谁认为自己是后25%的人？ Who believes they are at the bottom 25%?
好的,没人。[笑] Okay. No one. [ Chuckles ]
谁认为自己是前50%的？ Who thinks they are at the top 50%?
好的,大多数人都这么认为。 Okay. So that's most people.
我们发现 So,what we find is
大多数人都将自己排在多数能力的平均值之上, that most people rate themselves above average on most abilities.
当然这样的数据是不可能的, And that's,of course,statistically impossible,
因为我们不可能全都比别人强。 'cause we can't all be better than everyone else.
有谁认为自己的孩子会是天才？ Who here thinks that they will have talented kids?
大多数人都这么认为。 That's most of us here.
有谁认为能在自己的职业生活中 And who here thinks they will be successful
获得成功？ in their professional life?
弗里曼: 一般认为 Freeman: It's commonly believed
当你的预期没有实现时, that,when your expectations are not met,
你就会改变自己的期望。 you alter your expectations.
Tali的实验表明大多数人 Yet Tali's experiments show that most people,
尽管面对许多消极的证据, despite all evidence to the contrary,
仍在现实面前表现得很乐观。 remain optimistic in the face of reality.
她决定找出这样的原因。 She decided to find out why.
通过脑部扫描仪, Using a brain scanner,
Tali监测了当我们脑内处理信息时 Tali monitors what happens in our heads
都发生了什么。 when we process information.
今天,这个人会了解到 Today,this man will learn
他是否脱离了现实世界。 if he's out of touch with the real world.
Sharot: 好的,你将会看到许多负面的生活事件, Sharot: Okay,so you're gonna see the negative life events,
比如癌症, such as cancer,
你要做的是估计在你生命中 and what you need to do is estimate your likelihood
发生这些事件的可能性。 of experiencing this event in your lifetime.
然后你会看到这些事件发生在 Then you will see the average likelihood
像你这样的人身上的平均可能性。 of someone like you experiencing that event.
弗里曼: 骑手Nick会被要求估计在未来经历这些 Freeman: Nick the biker will be asked to calculate his chances
一共80种负面事件的可能, of experiencing 80 different negative events in the future.
Nick认为他患肺癌的可能性是 Nick thinks his chances of getting lung cancer
大约10%。 are about 10%.
实际上,在他的年龄和生活方式中,患肺癌的可能性是30%。 Actually,it's 30% for a man of his age and lifestyle.
现在他会看到更多的负面事件, Now he's presented with more negative events.
每一个新的情况中, With each new scenario,
他都在得知真实数据前给出预测的可能性。 he gives a prediction before finding out the real statistic.
当Nick听到了好消息, When Nick hears good news,
他的脑部扫描表明大脑额叶活性增强, his brain scans show plenty of activity in the frontal lobes.
但当他听到坏消息时,活性就会弱得多。 But when he hears bad news,there is much less activity.
现在Nick将进行第二次测试, Now Nick will take the test again
来看看这些事实是否改变了他之前认为的可能性。 to see whether these facts have changed his beliefs.
Sharot: 我们一次又一次发现 Sharot: What we usually find,again and again,
人们在第二次的测试中,对于每个事件 is that people change their estimates quite a lot
他们的估计都发生了很大的变化, in the second session for items where they got information
而真实概率都比他们估计的概率要好。 that was better than their own estimates.
比如说,如果Nick认为 So,for example,if Nick says
他患阿兹海默症(老年痴呆)的可能性是30%, that his likelihood of suffering from Alzheimer's is about 30%,
我们就告诉他 and we tell him,
其实患阿兹海默症的概率只有10%, well,the average likelihood of Alzheimer's is only 10%,
我们就发现了大多数人都会在第二次的测试中 we find that most people change their estimates
改变自己的估计。 the second time around.
他们会说,“好吧,也许我患阿兹海默症的 They would say,"Well,maybe my average likelihood
平均概率有12%。” of Alzheimer's is only about 12%."
我们就看到大脑额叶 and we see,in the frontal lobes,
就会在人们得到比自己预期还要好的信息时 enhanced activity when people get information
增强了活性。 that's better than what they expected.
弗里曼: 但当人们得知的真实情况,比自己的预计要糟糕时, Freeman: But when people get information that's worse than expected,
人们似乎并不会被影响, it doesn't sink in.
尽管被告知他有30%的可能性死于肺癌, Despite being told he has a 30% chance of dying of lung cancer,
Nick仅仅把自己的可能性从10%提升到13%。 Nick barely changes his estimate from 10% to 13%.
我们的大脑似乎会排斥负面信息, Our brains seem to resist negative information,
除非不好的事真正发生了。 but only when it applies to us.
Sharot: 我们对于自己的事基本都是乐观的, Sharot: So we're mostly optimistic about ourselves,
我们对自己的孩子、自己的家庭都是乐观的, and we're optimistic about our kids,about our families,
但我们对其他人就不乐观了。 but we're not optimistic about other people.
这样人们就倾向于甚至有些悲观的 So people tend to be even slightly pessimistic
看待国家的未来、世界的未来。 about the future of the country and the future of the world.
人们确实会有一些悲观预期, People do have quite pessimistic expectations
比如经济会如何发展, of where the economy is going,for example,
但人们又倾向于认为自己会没事的。 but they tend to think that they will be okay.
弗里曼: 这就是为什么香烟包装上的健康警告,通常都不会为人注意。 Freeman: And this is why the warnings on cigarette packages go unheeded.
每年有六百万人因抽烟死亡。 Yes,smoking kills six million people a year.
但抽烟的人认为,它只会导致其他抽烟者的死亡。 But smokers believe that it kills the other guy.
他们是特别的,他们会存活下去。 They are unique. They will survive.
[深深的吸烟] [ Inhales deeply ]
弗里曼: 这就是生活在虚假现实中的负面作用, Freeman: That's the downside of living in a false reality.
但其也有一个强大积极的方面, But there is a strong positive aspect to it,as well.
所以乐观改变了我们看世界的方式。 So,optimism changes the way we see the world.
男性：纳尔逊·曼德拉！【南非前总统】 Man: Nelson Mandela!
Sharot: 但其也改变了客观事实, Sharot: But it also changes objective reality.
而造成这样,正是因为它可以成为实现自我的预言。 And it does so because it acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
所以积极的预期,改变了我们的行为,改变了我们 So positive expectations changes our actions and our interactions
与身边的人、与世界的交流方式, with the people around us,with the world,
这又的确改变了我们身边的世界。 and that actually changes the world around us.
弗里曼: Tali认为这种扭曲现实的机制 Freeman: And this reality-distortion field,Tali believes,
是我们人类能够生存和进步的基本。 is essential to the survival and advancement of the human race.
希望也许不总是现实的, Hope may not always be realistic,
但它确实让世界变得更好。 but it makes the world a better place.
我们生活在许多现实中, We all live in many realities.
我们的思维中存在的现实, There is the reality in our minds,
我们与他人共享着的现实。 and there is the reality we share with others.
我们现在知道了这些真实并不能完全相信, We now know these realities can't be entirely trusted.
但是物质世界 But what about the physical world
的确存在于思维之外吗？ that exists outside of our minds?
当然, Surely,
在这个绝对可靠的因果世界中, in the rock-solid cause- and-effect world of nature,
我们可以把物质当做毋庸置疑的事实。 we can rely on things to be indisputably real.
或许并不是。 Maybe not.
在许多方面,我们无法看到大自然的真相, In many ways,we are blind to the true nature of reality.
我们对世界的认知是有限的, Our perceptions are limited.
我们的大脑扭曲了真相, Our brains distort the truth.
那我们能知道什么才是真实吗？ So can we ever know what is real?
深入探索大自然的众多谜题 That's the mission of science
找到自然界的终极真相 to probe deep into the massive puzzle box of nature
正是科学的任务。 to find its ultimate truths.
但我们能有多成功呢？ But how successful have we been?
假如我们无法发现全部的空间维度呢？ What if we are blind to an entire extra dimension of space?
有两类物理学家, There are two kinds of physicists
一类是理论物理学家,他们做出许多猜测 theoreticians,who make informed guesses
来解释世界为何以这种方式运作, as to why the world works the way it does,
另一类是实验物理学家, and experimentalists,
他们把物质撞开来看里面有什么。 who break things apart to see what's inside.
Steve Nahn是一位实验物理学家。 Steve Nahn is an experimentalist.
我绝对相信真实就是真正的东西, I absolutely believe that reality is a real thing,
但这并不代表我们完全了解它了。 but that does not mean that we completely understand it.
当你看历史上第一张世界地图时, When you look at the first maps of the world,
直接能看到的是许多大块的空白, what you notice immediately is there are major pieces missing.
但随着我们的探索, But as we explored more,
我们绘制的地图也就越来越精确, our accuracy on the maps got much,much better,
我们就发现了大陆, and we discovered continents,
比如美洲、南极洲、澳洲。 like the Americas or Antarctica or Australia.
时至今日,通过人造卫星我们可以绘制非常精确的地图, Today,thanks to satellites,our maps are incredibly accurate.
但到了更深层次的真实时, But when it comes to the deeper levels of reality,
我们就像是看到第一张地图一样, we're kind of like those first maps here.
那里有什么东西我们什么都不知道。 We don't know everything that's out there.
弗里曼: 物理学家通过日内瓦的大型强子对撞机(LHC) Freeman: Physicists map the subatomic levels of reality
绘制了亚原子水平的真实地图。 using the large hadron collider in Geneva.
LHC是世界上最大的显微镜, The LHC is the biggest microscope in the world.
它将质子 It smashes together protons
以光速的99.999999%的速度撞在一起。 at 99.999999 percent of the speed of light.
Steve是这个小型“科学家军队”的一员, Steve was one of the small army of scientists
他在2012年7月发现了希格斯场的特征痕迹。 who found the signature traces of the Higgs field in July 2012.
希格斯场承担了宇宙中 The higgs field is responsible for the existence of matter
物质存在的原因。 in the universe.
但这个卓越的发现也许只是开始, But this remarkable discovery may be just the beginning.
LHC中出现了许多奇怪的东西... Many more strange things could emerge from the LHC...
或许甚至有通往看不见的真实的大门。 Perhaps even gateways to unseen new realities.
嗯？ Huh?
除了我们知道的以外也许还有 There may be dimensions of space and time
许多空间和时间维度, beyond the ones we know,
这些维度也许能够解释物理学中 dimensions that could explain one of the greatest mysteries
最大的谜题。 of physics.
我们已经知道 There are four fundamental forces
驱动一切的四种基本力, that drive everything we know.
有电磁力、 There is the electromagnetic force,
强(核)力、弱(核)力、 there is the strong force and the weak force,
还有我们知道的最弱的力, and then there's the one that we know the least about,
引力。 and that's gravity.
引力比起其他力弱了 Gravity is a trillion,trillion,trillion times weaker
上万亿万亿万亿倍, than the scale of those other forces.
那么引力怎么了？ So what's going on with gravity?
它为什么这么弱？ Why is it so much weaker?
这是我们想要通过LHC寻找的答案之一。 That's one of the questions we'd like to be answer at the LHC.
弗里曼: 许多物理学家怀疑我们已知的三维空间 Freeman: Many physicists suspect the three dimensions we know
是一个更大的宇宙的薄片。 are slices of a much larger universe.
在其他尚未检测到的维度中, In other,as yet undetected,dimensions,
引力也许和其他三种力一样强, gravity may be as strong as the other three forces.
发现一些相似的高能粒子 The proof would be discovering high-energy clones
或许就是证据。 of familiar particles.
Nahn: 假设你发现了一些新粒子 Nahn: Suppose that you found some new particles
与你喜爱和了解的粒子 that were sort of kissing cousins
关系非常密切, to the particles you love and know,
而且具有更大的质量。 only at higher mass.
对于每个电子来说, So for each electron,
你都有另一个与之对应的拥有更高质量的电子, you have another electron that's at much higher mass.
对于每个夸克来说,你都有与之对应的更高质量的夸克, And for each quark,you have another quark at higher mass.
而这可能就是就是额外维度的标志, And that would be a signature for extra dimensions,
这就很有可能为我们提供一个线索, and it would actually provide,possibly,a clue
用来解释引力发生了什么, for what's going on with gravity.
因为一些粒子可以穿梭于这个额外维度中, Because some particles can travel in this extra dimension,
而另一些则不能。 and some particles cannot.
但如果你能进入这个维度, But if you could go off in that extra dimension
深入到某个地方, somewhere further away,
引力就会变得和其他力一样强。 gravity becomes just as strong as the other forces.
弗里曼: 物质在这个隐藏的真实中就会变得非常不同, Freeman: Things would be very different in this hidden reality.
但首先发生的就是它们会变得更重。 For one thing,they would be much heavier.
Nahn: 拿着这个篮球, Nahn: Take this basketball.
让我们假设这就是个粒子, Let's pretend that it is a particle
它能够进入其他维度中。 that can travel in the extra dimension.
如果我们所在的是另一个维度的某处, If it's here where we are,in that extra dimension,
我扔掉它,重力就会把它拉向地面, and I drop it,gravity pulls it to the ground,
地面则要足够强 and the floor is strong enough
才能把它弹回到我的手中。 to push it back up into my hands.
但假设我们到了 But suppose that it then moves
这个维度中的其他地方, somewhere else in this extra dimension,
在这里引力指数级的增长, where gravity grows exponentially stronger.
在这里我扔掉球, If I drop it over there,
地面不够强... the floor wouldn't be strong enough at all...
...篮球就会笔直的穿过地面, ...and the ball would go straight through the ground,
砸向我们下面的建筑。 crashing through the building below us.
弗里曼: 我们回到日内瓦的大型强子对撞机, Freeman: Back at the large hadron collider in Geneva,
粒子会被给予足够的能量相撞在一起, the beams will soon be smashing together with enough force
来证明这个引力-重量维度 to prove whether or not
是否的确存在。 this gravity-heavy dimension actually exists.
LHC也许会撼动正统理论, The LHC may shake up the orthodoxy
通过证明这些理论的对错。 by proving these theories right or wrong.
我自己并不站在哪一边, I myself do not take sides.
我的工作就是找出到底有什么、 My job is to find out what is really there
到底没有什么。 and what is really not there.
有很多不同的可能性, There are many different possibilities.
就像旧时候绘制地图,我们现在正在探索未知领域, Like the mapmakers of old,we are exploring terra incognita
试着绘制出自然界真实面貌的地图。 and trying to draw new maps of the true nature of reality.
弗里曼: 宇宙拥有的维度 Freeman: The universe may have more dimensions
可能比我们已知的还要多, than the ones we know.
但还有另一种更为激进的可能, But there is another even more radical possibility.
如果宇宙的维度比我们认为的还要少呢？ What if there are fewer dimensions than we think?
如果真实比呈现给我们的还要简单呢？ What if there is less to reality than there appears to be?
我们生活在一个因果世界中, We live in a world of cause and effect.
宇宙似乎以可预测的方式运行, The universe appears to behave in predictable ways.
但当深入到亚原子水平时, But down deep,at the subatomic level,
现实发生了变化, reality shifts and changes.
我们已知的世界给量子的奇异性让了路, The world we know gives way to quantum strangeness,
在这里所有的现实同时发生, where all realities happen at once,
所有事件的结果都是不可知的。 and the outcome of any event is unknowable.
一个物体能同时在两个地方吗？ Can an object be in two places at once?
物质会无中生有吗？ Can things appear out of thin air?
在我们生活的现实中当然不会, Not in the reality we live in.
但大自然有很多层面。 But nature has many layers.
我们离得越近观察, And the closer we look,
我们发现真实就越破碎, the more we find reality as we know it breaks down
魔术也成了真实的了。 and magic is real.
好了,朋友们,一个神奇的戏法, Okay,guys. An amazing sleight of hand.
看着硬币,猜猜在哪个手里。 Just follow the coin,guess the hand.
准备好了吗？ You ready?
好吧,再来一次... Do this one again to see...
弗里曼: David Tong并不是职业魔术师, Freeman: David Tong is not a professional magician.
他是位理论物理学家, He's a theoretical physicist
就职于剑桥大学的数学科学中心, at Cambridge university centre for mathematical sciences,
在这里他研究量子世界中的魔术。 where he studies the magic of the quantum world.
[硬币掉落] [ Coin drops ]
[笑] [ Chuckles ]
好的,在我看来,我可以说 Okay,in my defense,I could argue
这就是量子不确定性的例子。 that this is just an example of quantum uncertainty.
对于像电子这样的粒子, For particles like electrons,
你绝对无法知道 you never know where they're gonna be
它们在下一分钟后到达哪里, from one minute to the next.
事实上, In fact,
当你到达真实的基础水平时, by the time you go down to the fundamental level of reality,
你会发现一切都只是幻象。 it looks like everything is something of an illusion.
弗里曼: 在亚原子世界,即已知现实的最小程度, Freeman: In the subatomic world,at the smallest known level of reality,
像电子这样的粒子并不遵守常识法则, particles like electrons don't obey the laws of common sense.
它们遵从量子力学法则。 They obey the laws of quantum mechanics.
在量子世界中, In the quantum world,
一个粒子的性质似乎 the properties that a particle seems to have
依赖于你对其做的实验。 depends on the experiment you do.
你可以测量一个粒子的位置, You can measure the position of a particle
正如你希望的那样准确, with as much accuracy as you like,
或者你也能测量它的速度, or you can measure its speed,
但你不能同时测量位置和速度。 but you can't measure both at the same time.
同样的,一个电子可以以粒子或波的形式出现, Similarly,an electron can appear as a particle or a wave,
但不可能两种形式同时出现。 but never as both at the same time.
量子物体非常模糊,就像影子的边缘。 Quantum objects are fuzzy,like the edges of shadows.
这虽然讲不通,但的确是大自然 It doesn't make sense,but this really is the way nature works
在最基本层面上运行方式。 at the most fundamental level.
Tong: 量子力学无非是我们发展出的 Tong: Quantum mechanics is simply the best scientific theory
最好的科学理论。 that we've ever developed.
它加深了我们对于宇宙万物的理解, It underpins everything we understand about the universe.
也从来没有证据表明它是错的。 It's never been found to be wrong.
但这给我们带来了什么？ But where does this leave us?
什么才是真正的真实？ What is the true reality?
弗里曼: 量子力学中流行的理论表明 Freeman: The prevailing theory of quantum mechanics
我们永远无法知道真相, suggests we will never know
因为我们不能以绝对的确定性 because we can never measure all of the properties
测量量子物体的性质。 of quantum objects with absolute certainty.
这有点像柏拉图洞穴的故事, It's like the story of Plato's cave.
两千年前,古希腊哲学家柏拉图认为 2,000 years ago,the Greek philosopher Plato suggested
我们永远不能了解真实的真正意义, that we could never understand the true meaning of reality.
他认为我们像是小小的囚犯, He said we were a little like prisoners,
被锁链困在洞穴之中,被迫看着后墙。 chained in a cave and forced to look at the back wall.
而在这些囚犯背后, Behind the prisoners,
有一个遥远的火堆将他们的影子投向墙壁, there is a distant fire which throws shadows over them,
这些影子反应的生命就在墙壁影像的后面, shadows of the life that's going on behind the prisoners.
但这些囚犯不可能看到真实的生命, But they never get to see that life.
他们能看到的只是影子, All they see are the shadows.
这么看了一会儿之后, And after a while,
他们认为真实实际上就是二维的影像, they think reality is some two-dimensional dancing image.
他们没有办法转身, They've got no way of ever turning around
来看他们身后美丽多彩的 and seeing this beautiful,colorful three-dimensional world
三维世界。 behind them.
现在,这与量子力学有些类似, Now,this is a little bit like quantum mechanics.
我们不可能了解 We can never understand everything
量子波的一切, about the quantum wave.
我们不能测量 We can never measure all of the information
其中包含的所有信息。 which is contained in it.
我们能看到的都只是投影, All we can see are projections,
就像真实的影子。 like the shadows of the true reality.
弗里曼: 但是David认为真相也许比这个还要奇怪, Freeman: But David says the truth may be even stranger than that.
墙壁上的影子可能才是真实。 The shadows on the wall may be the true reality.
这是关于全息原理的争论, This is the contention of the holographic principle.
数学家尝试计算 Mathematicians attempted to calculate
能够塞入黑洞的信息量, the amount of information you can cram into a black hole.
他们发现这些信息量 They realized the amount is proportional
与黑洞的表面区域成比例,而不是黑洞的体积。 to its surface area,not to its volume.
假如黑洞真的是这样, And if this is true for a black hole,
他们推断,空间中的任何区域都有可能这样。 they reasoned,it's probably true for any region in space.
现在我们有可能就在一个巨型黑洞之中, Right now,we could all be inside a huge black hole
只是我们不知道。 and not even know it.
现实也许的确只是二维的。 Reality may actually be two-dimensional.
想象一下,宇宙万物都是信息, Think of everything in the universe as bits of information,
就像这面墙上存放的书籍。 like the information stored in the books on this wall.
当把书这么整齐地放着, When the books lie flat like this,
就呈现出二维的性质。 they appear two-dimensional.
但如果我拿出一本, But,of course,when I pull them out,
我们就看到这些书其实是三维的, we see that the books are three-dimensional at heart.
信息也是三维的。 The information is three-dimensional.
全息原理告诉我们不仅仅这是幻象, The holographic principle says that this is an illusion
你、我、地球、星辰都是幻象, not just this,but you,me,the earth,the stars,
甚至空间本身, even space itself
一切三维的东西 everything that's three-dimensional
实际上都只是幻象, is actually an illusion.
真正的现实就是墙上的书, The true reality is the books lining the wall.
真相以二维的形式存在。 The true reality lives in two dimensions.
弗里曼: 这就解释了为什么量子物体对于我们来说如此模糊, Freeman: And this explains why quantum objects look fuzzy to us.
它们只是投影, They are projections
实际并不存在于三维空间中。 that don't actually exist in three-dimensional space.
Tong: 我们认为现在的三维世界 Tong: And what we think of as this three-dimensional world
仅是从宇宙中的某个表面上 is just a holographic projection
投射出来的全息影像, from a surface somewhere in the universe
成为了我们看到的空间。 to create the space we see.
这样的话,柏拉图的囚犯就是正确的, It's as if Plato's prisoners had it right all along.
影子才是真实的, The shadows are real.
影子以外的都是幻影。 What's behind them was the illusion.
弗里曼: 现在还没有办法证明 Freeman: Right now,there is no way to prove
全息原理是否是 whether the holographic principle
对真实的正确描述, is the genuine description of reality
还是理论物理学家所共同持有的错觉。 or the shared delusion of theoretical physicists.
但也许有另一种解释, But there may be another explanation
来说明量子论的不可思议。 for quantum weirdness.
真实如此模糊的原因 What if reality gets blurry
是因为它从未存在过吗？ because it was never there to begin with?
一些科学家认为 Some scientists say
现实是一个故意创造的幻象。 our reality could be a deliberately created illusion.
通过科学的工具, Using the tools of science,
我们只能一瞥这巨大结构的一小部分, we catch glimpses of the vast structure of creation.
有太多的我们无法看到, There is so much we cannot see.
为什么找出真相如此困难？ Why is the truth so hard to find?
也许是因为我们生存的宇宙 Perhaps it's because the universe we live in
只是一个更大真实的一小部分... is just a small part of a larger reality...
我们都只生活在梦中的世界, And we are all just living in a world of dreams.
[闹钟响] [ Alarm blaring ]
[哔,响声停止] [ Alarm beeps,blaring stops ]
你是否做过递归梦... Have you ever had a recursive dream...
[闹钟响] [ Alarm blaring ]
[哔,响声停止] [ Alarm beeps,blaring stops ]
...就是梦中有梦又有梦？ ...a dream with a dream within a dream?
[闹钟响] [ Alarm blaring ]
[哔,响声停止] [ Alarm beeps,blaring stops ]
Jan Westerhoff就做过, Jan Westerhoff has.
根据他所知道的,他可能还在梦中, And for all he knows,he might still be dreaming.
或者你现在正在梦着这些。 Or you might be dreaming this.
Westerhoff: 你如何知道今天早上你醒来 Westerhoff: How do you know whether waking up this morning
是真正的清醒？ was actually a real awakening?
也许你只是从另一个梦中醒来。 Perhaps you just woke up into another dream.
你应该对此担心的原因 The reason why you should worry about this
正是因为有很大的可能性表明 is that there is actually a significant chance
我们现在正在做梦。 that we are dreaming right now.
我们来算一下。 Let's do the numbers.
弗里曼: 根据Jan的说法, Freeman: According to Jan,
大多数人每天需要8小时睡眠,16个小时处于清醒状态。 most people spend 8 hours asleep and 16 hours awake every day.
睡眠中大约有20%的时间处于 About 20% of sleep is spent in the r.E.M. State,
快速眼动睡眠期, when you dream.
8的20%,就是1.6,这表示... 20% of 8 is 1.6,which means...
Westerhoff: 我们知道在这个时期中, Westerhoff: We know that,at this very moment,
此时你有十分之一的机会正在做梦, you have a 1 in 10 chance of dreaming right now,
这的确是一个很高的可能性。 which is actually quite a significant probability.
弗里曼: Jan其实也并不相信自己生活在梦境, Freeman: Jan doesn't actually believe he lives in a dreamworld,
但作为英格兰杜伦大学的哲学家, but as a philosopher at the University of Durham in England,
他的工作就是对事物为什么是这样进行提问。 his job is to question how and why things are the way they are.
不论概率数字是多少, And despite what the numbers say,
逻辑会告诉你你可能并不是在睡觉。 logic tells you you are probably not asleep.
如果这是梦境, If this was a dreamworld,
为什么会被因果关系所束缚？ why would it be bound by the laws of causality?
为什么狂暴的火龙不会来到伦敦, Why don't fire-breathing dragons go rampaging through London,
摧毁这座城市？ destroying the city?
好吧,这是不可能的。 Well,they don't.
你看到的都只是幻象。 What you saw was just an illusion.
现实要遵守一系列严格的规则, Reality follows a strict set of rules,
即使在量子层面会有些模糊。 even though it gets a little blurry at the quantum level.
这又如何解释呢？ What might explain that?
也许我们生活在由高层次现实 Well,perhaps we are living in a simulation
模拟的真实中。 made by a higher-order reality.
弗里曼: 换句话说,现实可能并不是梦境, Freeman: In other words,reality may not be a dream,
但很可能是一种计算机模拟。 but it could be a computer simulation.
想象这么一个时间,也许从现在开始几个世纪后, Imagine a time,perhaps centuries from now,
当我们的后代有能力 when our descendants have the power
用计算机构建人脑全部功能的模型时, to model fully functional human brains in computers.
这些模拟的思维就存在于 These simulated minds could be placed
计算机模拟世界中, in computer-simulated worlds,
也许甚至可以重建过去。 perhaps even re-creations of the past.
他们永远不会知道他们并不是真实的。 They would never know they weren't real.
假如这一切早已发生了呢？ What if this has already happened?
Westerhoff: 我们如何知道我们所处的当代 Westerhoff: How do we know that the present year we are in here
的确是真实的,而不是过去的重放, is actually the original rather than some sort of rerun
真实过去发生的那些奇怪事件可能已经被修改, where some weird event in the past had been changed
成为了我们现在看到的过去真实的分枝？ just to see what kind of ramifications it had?
弗里曼: 无论你是否相信, Freeman: Believe it or not,
有这么一个几率表明,我们都是这个巨型模拟中的一部分。 there is a chance we are all part of a giant simulation.
想象一下,比如说,我买到了一幅达利的画, Imagine,for example,that I buy a dalí print.
我很激动, I get really excited about this
因为我很喜欢里面融软的钟。 because I just love melting clocks.
现在问题就是根据专业人士判断, Now the problem here is that,according to experts,
市场上约90%达利的画都是假的。 about 90% of all dalí prints on the market are fake.
所以我的这幅画是假的的概率为0.9。 So the chance that I've got a fake here is 0.9.
嗯？ Huh?
弗里曼: 我们的世界有多大的可能性是假的呢？ Freeman: What are the odds that our world is a fake?
有人说高达二十分之一, Some say as high as 1 in 20.
但Jan认为可能性并不重要, But Jan says the percentage isn't important.
如果你有可能是被模拟出来的, If there is any chance at all that you are simulated,
那么你就不能排除 then you can't dismiss the possibility
你就是被模拟出来的。 that you are simulated.
但问题就在这儿, But here is the thing
就算一切都是梦,又有什么关系呢？ even if this is all a dream,does it really matter?
即使这是一块梦中的蛋糕, Even if this is just a dream cake
我用梦中的钱买下了它,它尝起来仍然很不错。 and I paid for it with dream money,it still tastes great.
假定这一切都顺理成章, So presupposing this all continues,
那么是梦还是模拟还有什么关系吗？ does it really matter whether it's a dream or a simulation?
我仍然能规划我的生活,因产生果, I can still plan my life,causes will have effects,
做出行为就造成结果。 and actions will have consequences.
现实是真实的吗？ Is reality real?
看起来当然是真实的。 It certainly seems real to us.
但现在我们知道,我们所感知到的现实 But we now know the reality we perceive
仅仅只是真实的一小部分。 is just a small slice of what really is.
可能最终这不重要, And,perhaps,in the long run,that doesn't matter.
对我们来说最重要的是我们所知晓的那部分真实。 What matters most to us is the reality we know.
正如哲学家皇帝马可·奥勒留两千年前所写的, As the philosopher-king Marcus Aurelius wrote 2,000 years ago,
“宇宙是变化的, "The universe is change.
我们的生活取决于我们心态。” Our life is what our thoughts make it."