早上好，欢迎来到Minervini good morning and then welcome to the Minervini
私人训练室鲍勃·韦斯曼 private access training room Bob Weissman
让我用手快速检查一下 let me do quick hand check
如果你愿意，请举手 or hand raise rather if you will
让我知道你在清楚地听我说话 to let me know that you're hearing me loud and clear
我 I'm
还在我的交易大师课程模式 still in my master trader program mode where
我的想法是 my mind is
想看看其他与此无关的东西 wanting to see the other things that don't apply here
好的，看起来不错 all right that looks good
每个人都在我的身体里 everyone is here in me
让我们欢迎马克·里奇的到来 let's also welcome Mark Ritchie into the room
早上好，马克 good morning Mark
早上好，鲍勃早上好，马克早上好，各位 morning Bob morning Mark morning everybody
如果你能举起手来 if you could just raise your hand
让我们知道你在听 to let us know you're hearing
Mark也可以 Mark OK as well
然后 and then
我们从a开始 we'll get started with a
Mark Minerveni，让我们把它交给Mark Mark Minerveni and let's hand it off to Mark
早上好，马克 good morning Mark
大家早上好 okay good morning everyone
希望大家周末过得愉快 hope everyone had a good weekend
对于一个大型交易员项目来说，这是一个漫长的周末 it's a long weekend for a massive trader program
当然还有下周末和下周一 and of course next weekend and next Monday as well
看看这里的市场 so you know looking at the market here
我觉得有可能 I think there's a chance that
你知道，也许我们的指数已经触底了，或者 you know maybe we've bottomed on the indexes or
或者我们已经非常接近底部了 or we're very close to a bottom
但我觉得他们还是会 but I think they're still gonna
我们还是会 we're still gonna
花点时间去倒回去填满或者 take some time to either back and fill or
等待你知道的股票建立 wait for you know stocks to set up
我们已经说过很多次了 as we've talked about many times
你会得到具有预测性的股票 you get stocks that set up predictive
确认了低点，有时 confirming off the lows and sometimes
他们 where they're
他们后来在右边的什么地方 where they were later on the right side
这可能就是这里可能发生的情况 and that might be what might have to happen here
但是再一次 but again
当我们看索引时，你可以看到我们仍然在 when we look at the indexes you can see we're still in
长期的下降趋势或仍有工作要做 a long term downtrends or still work to be done
最重要的是，我想确定你们 the main thing I just want to make sure you guys
理解 understand
是指市场起飞并持续上涨吗 is that if the market takes off and keeps going here
而且股市并没有从突破水平开始运作 and stocks are not working from breakout levels and
我们还在挨打 and we're still getting whipped around
不要灰心丧气 don't get frustrated and let
和指数赛跑 and run a race with the indexes
我一遍又一遍地看到这一幕 I see this over and over and over and over
外行被逼入的地方，还是他们 where amateurs get forced into or they they
他们迫于压力做出了 they get pressured into uh making
犯错误 making mistakes
因为索引在移动 because the indexes are moving
他们觉得我应该在这里赚钱 and they're feeling like I should be making money here
不，绝对不是 no absolutely not
指数与股票配置无关 the indexes have nothing to dowith the stock setups
嗯，最终是的 um ultimately yes
我的意思是我们进入一个牛市 I mean the we go to a bull market
我们的 and we're hitting new highs in the
在纳纳克 in the in the uh in the Nasnac
我相信会有安排的 I'm sure that there will be set UPS
也会有股票在运作 and there will be stocks that will be working
我们离那还有很长的路要走 we're a long way from that
你知道我们 you know we're
我们刚刚从低谷中走出来 we're just coming off the lows here
有些时候 and there's times where
回到2000年 again you go back to the 2000
熊市 bear market
你从底部开始移动，上升了50% you had moves off the low that went up 50 percent
纳斯达克上涨了50%这是一个裸市反弹 50% rally in the NASDAQ and it was a bare market rally
所以 so again
如果你有水晶球的话 you know if you had a crystal ball
你可以求出每一个 and you can figure out each
其中一个波峰和波谷很棒 one of the peaks and troughs great
你知道我们可以利用这一点 you know we could take advantage of that
但即使在很多这样的反弹中 but even during many of those rallys
没有股票设置 there were no stock setups
股票也建立起来了 and the stocks that did set up
波动太大了 there was so much volatility
任何试图管理风险的人 that anybody trying to manage risk
只是被鞭打了一下，然后 just got whipped around and got
被打得屈服 beaten to submission
你们必须意识到这一点 so again you have to realize that
必须对风险进行实时管理 risk has to be managed in real time
还有风险和波动性 and the risk and the volatility
记住它不是 remember it's not
骑上那匹马 to get on that horse and
你知道不是的 you know it's not
事实上，马是从谷仓的一边走的 the fact that the horse goes from one side of the barn
对另一个人来说，你必须待在马上 to the other you have to stay on the horse
你必须能够爬上鱼竿并保持住 you have to be able to get on the stockand stay on
当我被炒股的时候 while I was getting bucked off stock doubles
但在这段时间内，如果波动太大 but in that time if there's too much volatility
它会把你打得体无完肤 and it whips you all over the place
你可以投资一只涨了100%的股票 you could be in a stock that goes up 100%
交易3到4次，每次都输 and traded 3 or 4 times and lose every time
只是因为波动性 simply because of the volatility
这就是波动性的关键 so that's the key the volatility
我们要找的是 we're looking for that alpha
标准偏差低 with low standard deviation
直到它以设置的形式出现 until that arrives in the form of setups
你知道市场行情如何并不重要 you know it doesn't matter what the market does
所谓的市场 quote unquote market which is
你知道指数是30，也就是30只股票 you know the index is the doubt 30 which is 30 stocks
价格加权 price weighted
这不是给你a that's not giving you a a
对整个市场的解读 a read of the overall market
这是你对30只股票的解读 that's giving you a read of 30 stocks
基本上 basically
它能让你解读10或12只股票 it's giving you a read of like 10 or 12 stocks
主要是因为它是价格加权的 mostly because it's price weighted
好了，我们开始提问吧 so with that let's get the questions
好了，彼得先问了 all right Peter is starting off by asking
你提到你的书了吗 where you mentioned your books
为了屏蔽噪音 to shut out the noise
新闻和专家只听股票行情 and the news and experts just listen to the stocks
他的问 he's asking
在什么情况下他应该在一个能够做的点上 at what point should he be at a point to be able to do
他自己交易，甚至没有 trading on his own without even
更需要一个像自己一样的导师或老师 needing a mentor or teacher like yourself more
我不能这么说 I can't say that
我的意思是，我们有你认识的人 I mean we've got people you know
有像马克·里奇斯这样的人 there's someone like Mark Riches
一个完美的例子，谁是最小值 a perfect example who was a minimum
十年私人通道会员 Private Access member for a decade
你知道，当然 you know and certainly
我的意思是他可能是你该问的人 I mean he's probably the guy to ask
因为他确实足够优秀 because certainly he was good enough to
完全靠自己 be completely on his own
并且没有 and have no
你知道援助什么的，但是 you know assistance whatsoever but
你知道 you know
就我们的服务而言你知道我们是 as far as our service is concerned you know we're
我们不断地向 we're constantly moving towards
这就是我们现在正在努力的方向 and that's what we're moving towards right now
还有图表和 with charting and the
还有监视器和所有的东西 and the monitor and all that
我们想要一个 we want to have a
做一个被使用的工具 be a tool that's to be used and not
一定就 necessarily just
你知道辅导 you know mentoring
但也要有重要的工具来帮助你 but also to have important tools that help you
就像你的 and act as sort of your
你知道的 your you know
你的研究分析师或者你的研究人员 your research analyst or your research arm to bring
想法的产生和类似的事情 idea generation and things like that
所以我是一个应用程序和导师，教你 so as far as I'm an app and mentor teaching you
我的意思是我还在学习 I mean I'm still learning
你知道我从中学到了什么 you know I learn from
我从写书中学到学生 my students I Learned from writing books
我从我所做的一切中学到了东西 I Learned from everything I do
我还在学习 I'm still learning
所以我认为它是 so I would think of it as
我没有一个导师，我去找一个特定的教练 I don't have a mentor that I go to a particular coach
但我有很多导师，所以我不知道 but I have lots of mentors so I I don't know
我的意思是，我不认为我们会停止学习 I mean I don't think we ever stop learning personally
我只是一个问题 I just a matter of
你知道你想要什么，什么对你有效 you know what you want what what works for you
那是我的 I That would be my
你知道，我认为这是私人恩怨，但我不知道 you know I think it's personal but I don't know
你呢，马克 how about you Mark you know
就像我说的你 like I said you
来参加一大堆的大师交易者课程 come to a whole bunch of master trader programs
8到10个 8 or 10 of them
你知道我们是我们是在付钱 and you know we're a we're a paying
Minivani私人通道钳 Minivani private access clamp
我甚至不知道多少年，但很长很长一段时间 I don't even know how many years but a long long time
是的，大约十年 yeah about a decade
我是一个坚定的信徒 and I'm a big believer
你们知道教练 and you know coaches
你知道最好的球员都有教练 you know the best players still have coaches
对我来说就是这样 and to me though it's it
你会知道的 you you'll know
我把它看作 I look at it as
你知道 you know just
提醒你做的事是对的 a reminder that you're doing the right things
你知道最后这一点 and you know this last
环境是 environment is
事实上，当我们比以往任何时候都更需要教练的时候 actually when we've needed to coach more than ever
你知道什么时候 you know when
我们之前用的是谈论足球，但当你 we're using talking football earlier but when you're
当你失落的时候 when you're down
你知道在半场休息或在一场激烈的比赛中 you know at half time or in a tight game
这时你就需要教练了 that's when you want your coach
你知道 you know
确保你的注意力集中在最重要的事情上 making sure you're focused on what's most important
当你以5次触地得分的优势赢得比赛时 when you're winning the game by 5 touchdowns you know
这是一个移动点 it it's a little bit of a move point
所以从某种意义上说，你永远不应该 soI I in some in some senses yeah you never should
我会很紧张 I would be nervous
如果我觉得自己长大了，不再需要 if I felt like I outgrew the need for
为了更多的知识和更多的智慧 for more learning and in sort of more wisdom
就是这样 that's just the way
这就是我的世界观 that's my worldview though
我的意思是，现在有很多方法可以得到它 I mean there's a lot of ways to get that nowadays
你知道是导师还是 you know whether it's a mentor or if it's
你从阅读中知道的 you know from reading or
YouTube之类的 YouTube or whatever it is
获取信息的方式有很多 there's lots of ways to get information
不管怎样 just no matter
你必须 you gotta
归结起来就是获取正确的信息 boil it down to getting the right information
这才是真正的关键 that's the real key
还有一件事就是学习 and another thing too is I would say with learning
你要确保 that you want to make sure that
你所学到的一切 everything that you're learning
是同质的 is homogenous
你知道如果你 you know if you're
大家都知道 people just you know
他们只是想知道一切 they just want to know everything
他们什么都看 and they read everything
他们变成了万事通 and they become a Jack of all trades
他们在派对上听起来很不错 and they sound good at parties and
你知道他有一个非常好的朋友 you know have a very good friend of mine he's got
他什么都知道 he knows everything
我是说他什么都知道一点 I mean he knows a little bit about everything
你提出了一个话题 you bring up a subject
他可以他听起来像个 he can he'll sound like he's a
他是个十足的专家 he's a complete expert
但他并没有变得富有 but he hasn't gotten wealthy or hasn't been
在任何一个领域都很成功 successful in any one area
所以要在某件事上变得非常出色 so to be really great at something
你的问题是你如何 in your question was how do you
我猜你已经是大师了 get to the point where I guess you're a master
我知道的不多 I don't know too many
在很多方面都是高手的人 people that are masters at a whole bunch of things
所以你得把你的一生奉献给某件事 so you got to dedicate your life to something
并且真的去做 and really do just that
然后也许 and then maybe
我做同样的事已经40年了 I've been doing the same thing for 40 years
你知道这可能就是原因 you know that's probably why
你知道，我是交易界的黑带 you know I'm a black belt in you know in trading
这就是我的观点 so that would be my you know my outlook on it
是啊，我还要加上一句，彼得 yeah and I would just add in there Peter
屏蔽噪音 tuning out the noise
还有电视上关于摇头娃娃的新闻和专家 and the news and the experts on the bobbleheads on TV
不是教练或老师 it's not a coach or a teacher
就像马库斯对你一样 like Marcus for you as well
即使马克维奇提到了老虎伍兹迈克尔乔丹 even as Markwichi mentioned Tiger Woods Michael Jordan
他们整个职业生涯的教练，所以 head coaches their entire professional career so
噪音 the noise
电视上的噪音和那些东西都不是教练，我是说 the noise on TV and that stuff is hardly a coach I mean
我想这才是马克真正关注的地方 I think that's where Mark was really focusing on
孤立自己，把注意力集中在股票上 isolating yourself and your focus on the stocks
来教你 to teach you
宁可告诉你该做什么，而不是教你 tell you rather what to do not to teach you
大股票是你最好的老师 big stocks are your best teacher
拉维问 Ravi is asking
第一个太阳正在设置一个猫的图案 the first solar is setting up a cat pattern
或者一个高把手 or a high handle
我会用10月4日的高潮吗 would I use the high of October 4
作为模式的先前基数的高点 as the high of the prior base for the pattern
这不是 it's not
这绝对不是猫的图案 this is definitely not a cat pattern
我甚至不会称它为高把手 I wouldn't even call it a high handle
我猜你可以把它叫做高把手，但是 I mean I guess you could call it a high handle but
我只能说这是一种自然反应 I would just say that this is a natural reaction
你知道 you know
这是有点奇怪的工作方式 this was a little bit funky the way this worked
你在这里形成了一个空间 you had you you formed a space right here
这是一个权力游戏 and this was a power play
这个上升了100% this went up over 100%
这是一场权力的较量 this was a power play right here
你有你有削弱，这是重置 you had a You had an undercut and this is a reset
我把这叫做失败重置 I would call this a failure reset
我不知道你是否同意，马克 I don't know if you would agree Mark
但这 but this
这是一场失败的权力博弈，然后很快 this is a power play that failed and then very quickly
变成了失败的重置，你只有一天的时间 morphed into a failure reset where you got a one day
暂停枢轴 pause pivot here
现在这只是一个自然反应 and now this is just a natural reaction
这有时会发生，特别是在一个 this sometimes happens particularly in a
露天市场 bare market where
你会长痘的 you'll get some breakouts
有时市场会出现波动 and sometimes the market comes off
或者只是一般的波动 or just the general volatility
因为你的处境还很艰难 because you're still in a difficult environment
把股票摇出来，然后它撕扯回来 shakes the stock out and then it comes ripping back
有时它会发生我们所说的硬交叉 sometimes it does what we call a hardway crossover
它会在哪里做这个 where it'll do this
你们中没有的 those of you don't
以前没见过 haven't seen that before
它会从基底中冲破 it'll break out of the base
它会削弱底座或支点的底部 it'll undercut the lows of the base or the pivot
然后它就会直线上升 and then it just rips straight higher
哎呀，我厌倦了 oops I'm tired about that
再说一遍 get that again
然后它就它就会直冲更高 and it just it just rips straight higher
现在你知道你不知道了 and now you know you don't
它没有形成枢轴 it forms no pivot
然后你就进来了 and you got in here
你被拦在这里了 you got stopped out here
3天之后，它就开始撕裂了 and then 3 days later it's ripping
你会说，天啊，发生了什么事 and you're going oh my God what happened
这是艰难的交叉 and that's the hard way crossover
蒂姆·哈德威是个 Tim Hardway was a
篮球运动员，他的交叉球很厉害 basketball player who had a mean crossover
他左转右转，然后就不见了 he go left right and boom he was gone
这就是我怎么翻的 so that's how I turned this
这样更具可玩性 um this was more playable
回想起来，我真的很想再玩一次 and looking back and I really wanted to play this again
如果血印再好一点 if the Mark was just a little bit better
一切都好了一点 things were acting a little bit better
我可能就在这里了 I probably would have been in right here
1028页 you know on 1028
我差点就扣下扳机了，就像我希望的那样 I almost pulled the trigger on it I was hoping it would
它会暂停一下，然后给我一个 it would pause out just a little bit more and give me a
给我一个更好的右边，但它没有 give me a better right side but it did not
但是,是的 but yeah
我觉得你还是可以玩玩这个，但我 I think you could still look to maybe play this but I'm
是啊，我还没集中注意力 yeah I I haven't on uh focus
但我喜欢看它多消化一点 but I like to see it digest a bit more
因为它直接跑到这里来了 uh because it ran straight up here
你可能需要更多 you might need a bit more
你可能需要放松一下 you might need to need a shake out
我倒想看看这玩意儿能摇出来 I'd love to see this shake out
也许回到50 maybe come back to the 50
然后再用它来拉回 and then set some kind of pull back by that
你知道我在想什么 that would be you know what I'm imagining
但这可能不会发生 but it may not happen
它可能会消失 it may just go
如果它真的很强，它可能会从这里开始 if it's really strong it might just go from here
但是我看一下N phn相 but I take a look at something like N pH n phase
这里有点不稳定 and this is a bit volatile here
所以这需要花费一些时间 so it is spending some time
试着把它放在右边，这样它就可以 trying to set up here on the right side so it may
第一太阳能公司 first solar
也可以多花一点时间 may also spend a little more time
因为这看起来还需要一点时间 because this looks like it needs a bit more time
这是我在这里看到的两个 those are the 2 that I'm looking out at here
作为领导者 as the leaders
以及我所关注的太阳能组 and the ones that I'm focusing on in the solar group
托德要求成为新成员 Todd is asking being a newer member
如果你能回顾一下北京的贸易和入境制度 if you could just review the BJ set up trade and entry
是的，我有 yeah I was having
很难理解什么是设置和入口 difficulty understanding what was the setup and entry
好吧 okay
这是粉末 this is the powder as
尽管我认为他们来的很直接 straightforward as I think they come
我们来看看这里 so let's see here we're looking at
有几个条目 there was a couple entries
我进去了，11 10 I went in so 11 10
这是 which is
我得把这个挪开 and I gotta move this
我很抱歉 I'm sorry
这是 it's
1110在这里 11 10 is right here
这就是这个分量 so that was the entry right here
这真是真是太完美了 that is a that is a picture perfect
一小杯手柄VCP little cup of handle VCP
当然是第二天 next day of course
把这个移到这里 just move this here
第二天这里就被砸了 next day it got clobbered here
进场，但仍保持止损 coming in but still holding the stop
我们看看能不能 and we'll see if we can
恢复一下，但这只是一点点 get a recovery of that but this is just a little
这里有一个小基地 a little base here
其实我 I actually
第一次在这里买的就在这里 bought it here the first time was right here
这是什么原因 which was a pull back by
然后它收紧，形成了这个 and then it tightened up and it formed this little
这个小手柄区域 this little handle area
这是一个很大的你们可以看到这里有一个很大的基底 this was just a big you can see a big base here
BCP双底你在这里跌破低点 BCP double bottom you undercut the lows here
真的只是教科书 really just textbook
然后在底上再加一点底 and then you just have a little base on base
这是这个基地上的一个较小的基地建筑 this is a smaller base building on this base
重要的是 and the important thing about this
我喜欢它的原因是 and the reason why I like it is because
市场已经 the market has been
在这段时间内一路走低 marking its way lower during this period
所以当你在这里趋向于更高 so as you're you're trending higher here
你有了这个垒上的垒 and you've got this base on base
如果你覆盖市场 if you overlay the market
市场已经 the market's been
向下移动，处于下降趋势 moving lower and is in a down trend
这只股票有上涨的趋势 and this stock is in an up trend
所以看起来还是很不错的 so it still looks pretty good
为什么这种情况没有消失 why didn't that go away
好吧 okay
嗯 um
它 it
不过这要多花点时间 it made take take a little more time though
只是可能还需要一点时间 this just may need a little bit more time
也许我们必须摆脱低点，在这里重新收紧 maybe we have to shake out the lows and re tighten here
但是这真的是 um but yeah this is really uh
非常完美 pretty perfect here
我的意思是 I mean uh it
我希望能看到更多的誓言 I would like to see a little bit more vowing up this
右边，但动作恰到好处 right side but acting just right
从爆发来看 now from the breakout
KC在txt上询问 KC is asking on txt
如果这能算提前转弯的话 if this would be considered an early turn
他转述了一个很长的问题 and he's to paraphrase what is a very lengthy question
关于很多基础合约的潜力 about a lot of fundamental contracts potential
政府军承包了yadayata government army contracts yadayata
如果 if
他只是问你对如何 he's just asking your thoughts on how to
如果有或者有办法下这步棋 if there or if there's a way to play this move
关于他的预期什么的 of what he's anticipating or some
政府中的重要合同 significant contracts in the government being
如果 well if
这是一种玩弄基本原理的方法 it's a way to play with fundamentals
因为你可以随时购买 as you can buy at any time
我的意思是，如果你玩的是基本原理 I mean if you're playing on fundamentals
技术指标没有任何意义 the technicals don't mean anything
所以 so
你知道如果这是真的 you know if if that's true
我不知道，我是说我不知道怎么做 I don't know I mean I don't know how
你知道那可能是真的 you know that may be true
也许他们得到了合同 maybe they're getting contracts
但市场已经这样做了 but did the market already
折扣, discount that
你知道市场是否在意这个 you know does the market care about that
我不知道他们的比例是多少 I don't know what percentage of their
我不知道该怎么解释 of their revenues that account for I don't know how
我所知道的是，我要确保市场 what I do know is I want to make sure that the market
真的和你有同样的感受吗 is indeed feeling the same way that you
我对这些合同的看法 that I feel about those contracts
唯一能让我知道的方法就是 and the only way I can know that is by
看看价格是如何变化的 seeing how the price is acting
这才刚刚开始突破200天 this is just starting to get above the 200 day
它看起来更像是一种市场股票 it looks like more of a market stock
这看起来很像道琼斯指数或纳斯达克指数 this is looking very much like the Dow or the NASDAQ
你知道的，它和市场联姻了 you know it it's marrying the Market
这提醒了我 so this you know reminds me
这告诉我这支股票 this this tells me that this stock
更像是市场类型的名字吗 is more of a market type name
你在这里得到的不是很多，但是 and you're not getting a whole lot of alpha here but
你知道这不是一个早期的转折，不 you know it isn't an early turn no
的 the
200天至少要有一个月的上升趋势 200 day has to be in an uptrend for at least a month
我们才来这几周 and we're just a couple weeks here
你在你在往上跑 and you're you're running up
压缩了右边的供给线 compressed up the right side running into supply
这是否意味着它不能直接起飞 does this mean it can't just take off
你的基础分析很好 and your fundamental analysis is great
它会被扯得更高 and it's gonna rip higher
它可能 it might
它可能只是可能性 it might but probabilities
至于寻找股票和上升趋势 you know as far as looking for stocks and uptrends
这不在我的雷达范围内 this is off my radar
杰瑞正在分享 Jerry is sharing
在尝试了几次反弹尝试后 after trying several rally attempts
我发现我的心态已经改变了 I found that my mindset has changed
从害怕错过到害怕赔钱 from fear of missing out to fear of losing money
不敢扣动扳机 and afraid to pull the trigger
这是一个好的改变吗 is it a good change
其实根本不应该有任何恐惧 well there shouldn't be any fear at all
好吧，尊重是应该的 okay there should be respect
害怕不是好事 the fear is not a good
从来都不是一种好的情感吗 is is never really a good emotion
我的意思是，恐惧肯定会让我们变得敏锐，让我们远离 I mean fear definitely sharpens us and keeps us from
有时会做些傻事，但你知道 from doing stupid thing sometimes but you know
太过恐惧只会让你陷入困境 being too fearful stares your way right into it
所以尊重我你知道的，我尊重风险 so respect I You know I respect the risk and um
我意识到了这一点，并为此做好了准备 and and I'm cognizant of it and I plan for it
你知道我有个计划 you know I have a plan for it
所以你知道，害怕错过机会绝对是 so you know fear of missing outis definitely um
一种非常糟糕的情绪 a very bad emotion
它可能是 it's probably
你知道，在交易中，这比害怕损失更糟糕 you know in trading it's worse than fear of loss
我想说的是，这是朝着正确方向的转变吗 um so I would say is it a shift in the right direction
是的，所以你知道你要去你要去的地方 yes it is so you know you gotta get to where you're
你是不可知论者，你是你真的 you're more agnostic and you're and you're really
你只要你知道你要寻找 you just you know you look for the the
你的基础是 the basis you let the
你接受市场的判决，而你 you accept the markets verdict and you
和你 and you
你拥抱这个过程 you embrace the process
这就是我的工作 and that that's really what I do
我拥抱这个过程 I embrace the process
我接受判决，我有个计划 I accept the verdict and I have a plan
处理判决 for dealing with the verdict
当它不起作用的时候 um and and when it's not working
那我知道你知道还没轮到我 then I know you know it's not my turn
轮到我了 and my turn will come
所以我耐心等待 so I patiently wait
我争取了时间 and I buy my time
把我的损失当作 by keeping my losses as
越小越好，或者完全远离 small as possible or staying completely out
然后当当条件合适的时候 and then when the when the conditions are right
我把踏板猛踩在地板上 I jam the pedal to the floor
我在短时间内赚了1亿美元 and I make 1t of money in a short period of time
我就是这么做的 and that's the way I do it um
你知道，只要你知道，就能回答你的问题 you know as far as you know to answer your question
是的，这是朝着正确方向的转变 yes it's it's a shift in the right direction
但我想说 but I would say
试着摆脱恐惧 try to get away from the fear of
什么都可以，去你所在的地方 anything and get to more where you're
你是不可知论者 you're more agnostic
你要尊重风险，做好计划 and you're just respecting risk and planning for it
约瑟夫在问 Joseph is asking
如果你最初计划做短线交易 if you initially planned a short term trade
你有这样的情况吗 are there circumstances where you are
在交易中，你会改变你的计划 in a trade that you would then change your plan
然后再下更大的棋 and play for a bigger move
假设它还没碰到你的短期止损点 assuming it hasn't hit your short term stop
你还会卖给金融机构吗 would you still sell a piece to finance
短期内剩余交易 the short term remaining trade
所以如果我加入就这么说吧 so if I'm in let's just say I'm
你知道我正在计划一笔交易一笔短期交易 you know I'm planning for a trade a short term trade
它从碱中出来 it breaks out of a base
我是说如果这东西跑到这里 I'm saying you know if this thing runs up here
你知道 you know
5%或6% 5 or 6%
我要扔掉它，或者扔掉一半 I'm just gonna dump it or I'm gonna dump half of it
这就是我的计划，我的想法 now that's my that's sort of my my plan or my idea
现在我用一个非常紧的刹车 now I go in from real tight stop
我走进去，然后 and I went in there and
假设我止于2% let's just say I stopped at a 2%
我的手腕是我的三倍 I got 3 timesmy wrist
我只是想试着分一杯羹 the markets crappy I just want to try to chip up
然后它就爆炸了，然后就上升了 but then it just explodes and it goes up
那天我不知道有20% I don't know 20% that day
体积很大，我不知道可能有一些 and volumes huge and I don't know maybe some
惊喜的消息出来了 surprise news comes out
是的，我可能会改变 yes I might change
我可能会改变，我可能会说 I might change I might say
不，这表现得很强烈 no this is acting really strong
有些你知道的很好 some you know great
新闻刚出来 news just came out
也许现在 you know maybe now
我不扔掉它，我只扔掉它的一部分 and instead of dumping it I'll dump only a piece of it
你知道 you know and
事实上我获得了更大的收益 and the fact that I have a much bigger gain
这样我就可以少卖一些钱来承担风险 allows me to sell less to finance my risk
所以你总是可以为你的风险融资 so you can always finance your risk right
这取决于游戏的多少 depending on how much the game
股票涨了多少 how much the stock goes up
股票上涨等于你的风险 so the stock goes up equal to your risk
如果你出售一半，你就为你的风险权融资 if you sell half you finance your risk right
你的全部资金就是出售一半 your fully finance that's selling half
但是如果它上升 but if it goes up
3到4倍的风险 you know 3 or 4 times your risk
那么你只需要卖出一小部分 then you only have to sell a fraction
承保你方的风险 to cover your risk right
这取决于增益 so again it depending on the gain
这取决于股票的表现 and depending on how the stocks acting
当然，你的计划总是动态的 absolutely your plan is always dynamic
但不是止损 but not my stop loss
你知道我的止损只会上升 you know my stop loss is only going to move up
我要改善我最坏的情况 I'm gonna improve my worst case scenario
我不会你知道的 I'm not gonna you know
这是唯一不会改变的计划 that's the one plan that's not gonna change
但我可能我可能决定我要把这个给你 but I might I might decide that I want to give this
我真的很想持有这只股票 you know I really want to hold this stock
所以我要 so I'm gonna
我会承担风险，给它空间 I'm gonna finance the risk and give it the room
或 or
如果如果我认为它超前了 if if I think it's ahead of itself
而且风险太大 and it's got too much risk
我恰恰相反 I'm just the opposite
我说我要把我的止损点提前 I say you know I'm gonna move my stop up
我要卖一些 I'm gonna sell some
保证我有利润，然后把它扼杀掉 guarantee myself a profit and choke it off
现在 and now
如果一切顺利，如果不是 if it keeps going great if not
我不给它，沃尔特，我掐掉了沃尔特 I don't give it that Volta I choke the Volta off
这要视情况而定，马克 it really depends on the situation Mark
我不知道你会怎么回答，但可能 I don't know how you would answer that but probably
是的，很像，我觉得XL E是个很好的例子 yeah similar I think a good example those XL E
我可以跟你解释清楚 I can just talk you through
你知道我是怎么想到这个的 you know how I went into this thinking
这只是一笔交易 this is just a trade
因为这完全是，而且仍然是一种交易 because it's completely and it still is a trade
我不打算玩这个，但是听着，伙计们 I'm not gonna play this for a big move but look guys
这件事已经发生了 this thing's up
你知道，我认为这是10天中的10天 you know I think it was up 10 of 10 days
嗯嗯 yeah um
你知道我仍然 you know I still de
冒着生命危险，因为这是过去的高潮 risked it as it was running into the old highs
但我说，哇，这表现得真的很强烈 but I said wow this is really acting strong
就在这里，就在这里 right here right here
就在大家都买的时候 right same same time everybody was buying it
但你知道，我只是在看价格走势 um but you know I'm just looking at the price action
你知道名字的时候 you know when the name
你知道让我 you know puts me
你知道第一件事 you know the the first thing
第一件事 one of the first things
我在谈论大卫 I'm remarked talking about David
谈论 talking about
你知道这些人比我年纪大得多 you know these guys have been a lot longer than me
当你马上获利时，这是最好的迹象 when you're in a profit right away that's the best sign
这是一个很好的例子 well this is a good example this
这才刚刚开始 this just took off
那么好 so good
坚持到底是第一件事，但是你知道 follow through is one of the first things but you know
另一件事是 the other thing is
你知道，想想所有的 you know the just think of all the
抱歉，我想不出monolert的方言用法 sorry I can't think of the vernacular use in monolert
我要的就是这个词 confirmations that's the word I was looking for
我得到的确认就越多 the more confirmations I get
我就越想付出 the more I'm tempted to give
至少有一部分是无罪推定的 at least a piece of it the benefit of the doubt
但要坚持下去 but stick with it
是的 yeah
迈克尔在问马克·里奇 Michael is asking to Mark Ritchie
随着你的生意越来越好 as your account has grown have you
优先考虑基础研究，而不是 prioritized fundamental research more than when your
账户较小 account was smaller
尽管他知道技术，但他还是特朗普一切 even though he knows technical still Trump everything
是啊，这是我不把它放在首位的唯一原因 yeah the only reason I don't prioritize it sort of
我不会这么说 I wouldn't put it that way
我只能说我开始付一点钱了 I would just say I started paying a little
更多的关注 more attention
但这是我自己的想法 but this was born out of my own
研究我自己的研究结果 uh studying my own results
我只是碰巧 I just happened to
我对自己的交易做了大量的研究 you know after doing a huge study of my own trading
我注意到我最好的交易 I noticed that my best trades
你知道更大的赢家吗 are you know bigger winners
我们都处在他们曾经 we're all in situations where they had
一些基本知识摆在桌子上 some type of fundamentals on the table
唯一的例外是一本传记 the only exception was a biotext
作为一般规则 so as a general rule
我只是说如果股票是 I just said if a stock is
你知道的，既没有销售也没有收入 you know doesn't have either sales or earnings um
做两个警告的力量进攻就是一个 making 2 caveats power plays being one
而生物技术则是另一种情况 and biotechs in general sort of being the other
所以那是但我不只是有点 so that's but I didn't just sort of
什么都没有 that didn't have anything
因为这个账户一直在增长 to do with the fact that the account was growing
这和事实有关 it had to do with the fact
那就是我赚钱的地方 that that's where I was making all the money
有趣的是马克 the funny thing is Mark
所有人都知道，这是真的 and everyone is that that is exactly
这些就是我最初的规则 what I Learned and those were my original rules
就像我最初的规则一样 like my original rules were
那些没有强大实力的股票 the stocks that were not powerplace
但事实并非如此，我们不是生物技术公司 and it's not so we're not biotechs
我要求收益和销售额 I required earnings and sales and
我真的 I really
希望看到基本面非常强劲 wanted to see the fundamentals being very strong
这么多年来 over the years
你知道我 you know I've
我不知道我是否变得更好了 I don't know if I've gotten better at it
或者它只是 or if it's just
因为我们的科技发展速度 because of the speed of the technology that we're
能够进行更多交易 able to trade more
并利用短期走势 and take advantage of the shorter term moves
我开始 I started you know
看到很多我能做的交易 seeing a lot of trades that I could make that I could
把我自己装上船 ship myself up in stocks
它没有基础 it didn't have the fundamentals
因为它没有那么重要 because it wasn't as important
因为期限较短 because of the shorter term
时间框架 uh time frame
但是但是我我我我我长大了 uh but so but I I I I I grew into that same uh
像马克那样实现 realization as Mark did
我认为马克 the thing I think that Mark
如果我能替你说话，你可以告诉我我是否错了 if I can speak for you could tell me if I'm wrong
但我不认为马克 but I don't think Mark um
潜水很深 is diving is deep
就像基本面一样 into the fundamentals as much as
他现在就要了 he's requiring them now
再多一点 a little bit more
之前他并没有要求他们开诚布公 before he was wasn't requiring them to be on the table
但现在他说，你知道 but now he's saying you know
现在我在寻找 now I'm looking
因为我看了我的成绩，发现我的 because I looked at my results and found out that my
最好的结果是 best results are
有哪些基本原理 what fundamentals are there
现在他交易的是有基本原理的想法 now he's trading the ideas that have the fundamentals
我不确定你是不是真的 I'm not sure if you're actually
把袖子卷起来 go rolling up your sleeves
我想问题更多的是你会不会 I think the question was more are you going and like
深入挖掘 digging in deeper and
给公司打电话 you know and calling the company
听电话会议，做更多的事情 and listen the conference calls and doing more
更基本的工作，而不是实际工作 more fundamental work as opposed to actually
也许 maybe
改变你的过程你的筛选过程或者你的 changing your process your screening process or your
或者你的候选人 or your candidates
是的，这是正确的 right that's correct
是的，我想再说一遍 and yeah I would say again you know
我只是在看图表 I was doing just just looking at the charts almost
我不会说100%的技术交易员，但确实是 I wouldn't say 100% technical trader but it was
你知道的 it was you know
主要是技术面 predominantly technicals
如果如果图表看起来不错，我会把它们交易的 if the if the charts looked good I'd trade them well I
讽刺的是，我有一个相当大的数据集 The irony like I said is I had a pretty large data set
你知道，多年来，成百上千的交易 you know multiple years hundreds and hundreds of trades
同样的事情 and the same thing
你知道马克 you know Mark
这本书的老师在贸易大师项目 teachers in this books at the Master Trader program
你知道，数据显示你知道 and you know it bore out in the data to say you know
你会过得更好 you're better off
在收入或销售情况下 in situations with earnings or sales
有几点需要注意 with a few caveats
当我研究我自己的结果时，你瞧 well as I studied my own results lo and behold
你知道出现了什么 you know what showed up
就是马克一直在教的东西 that the same thing Mark had been teaching
是的 yeah
我们发现 and and we found
在我40年的职业生涯中似乎每一个 you know over my 40 year career it seems like every
所有解药的证据 every all my antidotal evidence over time
总是很无聊 always bores out
研究被阅读和 the research are read and
我认为这只是在说 and I think that just says
我们的研究非常好 that our research is really good
研究表明 and the research that
是啊，还有我们赖以为生的研究 yeah and the research that we're relying upon
即使是研究也不是这样 even the research that's not
我们的研究也很好 our research is really good too
当你看奥尼尔的研究时 when you look at the O'Neill research
都要回去 are going back all
回到理查德·勒夫 back to Richard Love
甚至是杰西·利伯莫尔 and even all back to Jesse Libermore
杰西·利伯莫尔是你知道的 Jesse Libermore is uh um you know
市场策略:针对市场的策略或方法 strategy or approach to the market
这声音太好了，以至于 it was so sound that to
直到今天，还有技术或者你知道的 to this day there's the techniques or the you know the
这种方法仍然有效 the approach is still valid
所以我们真的在寻找永恒的东西 so we really look for that timeless you know those
这些永恒的原则 those timeless principles
我认为这是我工作的真正关键 that's the I think that's the real key to what I do
也要感谢奥尼尔 and and also uh with credit to O'Neill
呃 uh
你知道，这是永恒的 totally timeless you know and that that's
你知道，我们我们已经 you know there we we we've um
你知道我认识很多人 you know I've known people
在市场上取得了成功 that have been successful in the market
他们运行电脑 and they run computers
他们找到了有用的东西 and they find whatever's working
计算机运行算法 and the computer runs algorithms
然后你就知道 and then you know
前一分钟，一件事还在起作用，另一个人却在想 one minute one thing's working and someone else think
还有别的东西在起作用 something else is working
他们试图利用这种低效率 they try to take advantage of these inefficiencies
就是这 that's that
你知道这是可以做到的 that can be done you know that could be done
这需要大量的工作 it's a lot of work
这当然没有太多的激情 it's um certainly there's not much passion to it
这不是艺术，更像是一门科学 um it's not an art it's more of a science
但是我没见过多少人能做到 um and and but I haven't seen too many people that can
可以做到这一点 that can do that
我想要一种能反复传递信息的东西 and I want something that delivers over and over
年复一年 year after year
它有永恒的原则 and it's got timeless principles and again
收益、销售和利润率 earnings and sales and margins
你知道什么是 you know what makes a
当你回头看的时候 stock when you go back and you look at
最大的赢家股票 the biggest winning stocks
催化收益或潜在收益 the catalysis earnings or the potential for earnings
这是简单的 that's simple
质疑一下 uh question that
也被问到露露的事 also was being asked about Lulu
回到2010年的例子 back in the example from 2010
好吧，让我们回到刚才的话题 okay let me go back all the way back to that
这可能是每天都需要的 that would be probably needed daily on that
我回到这里 so I'll go back here
这是一个很好的工具 this is a nice tool that we can do that
我这里有一大堆笔记 I got a whole bunch of notes here
所以我不确定我们之前是怎么说的 so I'm not sure what we were talking about this before
这是2010年的例子 obviously so here's the example 2010
我知道我很了解它，因为我把它换了 I know I know it really well because I traded it
我记得 and I remember the
边后卫等等 full backs and so forth
是的，所以在十月，它完美地爆发了 yeah so in October there it set up broke out perfectly
在恢复盈亏平衡之前，它上涨了约8% it went up about 8% before coming back to break even
如果你的止损点在21号的低点 if your stop is at the low on the 21st
我们现在的环境很好 and we are in a good environment are you giving it
如果它继续从那里漏出来，就是句号 the full stop if it continues to leak off there
或者你会把站往前挪吗 or would you have moved up your stop
好的, okay so
它在这里爆发 it broke out here on the
5号11号5 on the 5th 11 5
这个消息传来了，这就是我相信的地方 this word came that's where I was buying
我很抱歉，等一下，对不起 I was sorry about that hold on I'm sorry
我是在11号5号买的 this right I was buying it right here on 11 5
2010年我就是在那里买的露露 that's where I bought Lulu back in 2010
我拿着它，我穿过这个完整的背部 I had held it I went through this full back
这里有几个较低的点 you got you see you got a couple lower lows here
你有一个和一个2 3个更低的低点 you had one and one 2 3 lower lows
在第三个更低的地方 and on that 3rd lower low
你得到的支持马上就回来了 you got support that just came right back down
到爆发的水平 to the breakout level
实际上下降了一点 it was actually down a little bit
因为我被封住了 because I boarded up around
23的变化，所以我下降了一点 23 change so I was down a little bit
然后你有了网球动作 on it but then you got that tennis ball action
第二天你就不得不撤回了 you had to pull back by the next day
2天内 within 2 more days
你马上就回到了新的高地 you were right back ripping into new high ground
最后我把它卖了 I ended up selling it
我完全相信 I believe the whole thing
直到我搬到这里 until this move right here
我记得我去了收益课 which I think I went to earnings
然后我把它卖到了这里 and then I sold it right into here
然后它又在这里出现了 and then it set up again here
它又在这里出现了 it set up again here
我的意思是你知道你可以在这里交易 I mean you had you know you could have traded it here
然后又回到了爆发的问题上 and it just again just came back to the breakout
再也不要把它拆了 never undercut it set up again
你在这里设置了一个低欺骗 you set up here with a low cheat
我的意思是它设置了很多次 I mean just it set up a whole bunch of times
现在你看它开始变宽变松了 now you see it started getting wide and loose
这就是它开始变得不稳定的地方 and this is where it starts getting erratic
到处都是 all over the place
你开始进入更多顶部的阶段 and you start getting into the more topping phase so
问题是什么 what was the question
在最初的时候 on that initial
最初大涨8%的结果都归功于你 that initial breakout up 8% came all way back to you
你的爆发点 your breakout point
如果你的止损点在21号低点 if your stop is at the low of the 21st
这个礼物意味着10月21日 that present means October 21st
10月21日好的 October 21st okay yeah
这可能是根据股票拆分调整的结果 which was perhaps adjusted for stock splits now
我们的环境很好，你愿意吗 and we are in a good environment are you willing
你给它画上句号了吗 are you giving it the full stop
如果它继续渗漏 if it continues to leak off
或者你会移动或者停下，然后快速 or would you have moved or stop up andjust a quickly
我们在问一个假设 we're asking a hypothetical
好吧好 okay well
现实中我们处在一个很好的环境中 reality as we were in a good environment
但让我插一句，伙计们 but let me interject real quick guys
因为这些都在邮政档案里，迈克尔 because this is all on the post archives Michael
你可以回去看看交易的具体情况 so you can go back and see exactly the trade
我们买的 that we bought
11月5日 on November 5th
你可以确切地看到更多的地方 you can see exactly where more
调整了服务上的停止 adjusted the stops on the service
都在那里，所以 and it's all there so
我都不记得我有没有把这个放到服务上 I don't even remember if I put this on the service
在葬礼上的表现和 and at the service was in line with
和我所做的完全一样 exactly with what I did
但我几乎可以肯定 but I'm almost certain that
你知道我买的那天就开始服役了 you know was I put on the service the day I bought it
我不记得我是否 and I can't remember if I
在我们出售之前 before we sold it later or earlier
我不记得了，但是可以肯定的是，它在服务上 I don't remember but certainly yes it's on the service
你可以看到我们做了什么 you could see what we did yeah
20号的一半我们赚了15%的利润 on there we took a 15 percent profit on half on the 20
11月23日 November 23rd
取1/3 and we took 1/3
在这里 right here
12月9日我们获得了36%的利润 we took a 36 percent profit on December 9th
哦，是这样吗，好吧，这里卖了一些，然后 oh was that right okay so right here sold some and then
12月9日是几号 what was it December 9th
是的 yep
12月9日 December 9th which is
让我们看看12月9日 let's see December 9th
在这里 right here
而且 and
实际上我们调整了这个止损来锁定36 actually we adjusted this stop to lock in a 36
利润的百分比 percent profit
你最后把它卖了 you ended up selling it in a
在12月的晚上有40%的比赛 industry for 40 percent game on December night
好了，就这样 okay so there you go
在档案中 within the archives
这是 that's
这就是目的 kind of the purpose
拥有这些档案的好处是可以插入 and the benefit of having those archives is to plug in
带上你的符号 take your symbols that you
我只做一个简短的评论 I'll just make it a quick comment
因为我对那次交易也记得很清楚 because I remember this trade really well as well
我用同样的方式进行交易 and I traded it very similarly
但在那个回调时期，市场出现了回落 but in that pullback period the market pulled back
在那次突破之后，市场回落 after that breakout the market pulled back
这个名字刚好和越狱事件有关 and this name just pulled back to the breakout
这是一种暗示，它是一个领导者 which was sort of a tell that it was a leader
在这段时间里 and then during this time
事实上，当这个名字进入一个新的高地 actually while this name went into new high ground
我记得有很多安排 I remember there were just tons of setups
有很多设置 lots of setups
如果你去看站台 and if you go and look at the platform
我想你们也会看到的 I think you'll see that as well
有很多活动 there was a lot of activity
是的是的 yeah yeah
停顿的答案是这样的 so but the answer for the stop is that
你知道我什么时候想出来的 you know when I come up with it
当我第一次停车时 when I put an initial stop
我通常会坚持下去，除非 I'm usually sticking with it unless
有违反 there's violations
所以让我们 and so let's just
让我们进入你的例子，然后说 let's just go into your example and say
你是说如果它一直迷糊 you're saying if it kept drifting off
好吧，假设它还会持续两天 so okay so let's say it drifts off for 2 more days
这让我现在有点不正常了 it gives me you know it's a little abnormal now
现在它下降了5个低点 now it goes 5 lower lows
看看我离车站有多近 well look how close I'd be to the stop
我现在停下来有什么意思 what's the sense of me stopping out now
不如给它一个你熟悉的房间 might as well give it the room you know
我是说，如果它是 I mean if it's
再增加几个百分点 another couple percent
我可能会停下来 I'm probably just gonna give it the stop
你知道我可能不会 you know I might not though
我是说，如果看起来真的很不妙 I mean if it looks really ominous
我可能会把它切成两半 I'll probably cut it in half
你知道当我拿不准的时候，我通常 you know when I'm in doubt I usually
selhouse当我得到当如果 sellhouse when I get when if the
如果交易是突然发生的 if the trade is all of a sudden going on
你很清楚这看起来不对 you know well this doesn't look right
我开始怀疑 and I get in doubt
我通常卖和平 I usually sell a peace
但也不总是这样 um but not always
如果我现在离车站很近的话 again if I'm really close to the stop now
再一次 again
假设我在这里以极低的位置结束 let's just say I close on the dead low right here
我，我，呃 and I'm and I'm uh
我离车站只有50美分 and I'm ¢50 from the stop
现在我可能会卖掉它，只是因为 well now I might sell it just simply because
现在我有机会可以了可以了 now there's a chance that I could it could
第二天早上盖普下山了 gap down the next morning
然后把我放在 and put me in a
比我想要的最大损失要大 larger loss than what I want my maximum loss to be
看到了吧 see so you
必须把这些都考虑进去，但是 have to take these things into account but
你不会去的 you're not going to go
你不会偏离轨道太远的 you're not going to get too far off track
如果你停好了 if you set your stop
在数学上是有意义的 at a level that makes mathematical sense
与你的预期收益相关 in relation to your expected gain
你要坚持下去 and you stick to that
你不会得到 you're not going to get
太偏离轨道了，其他骑手都进来了 too far off track all this other jockey in
在洗的时候就会显现出来 between is all going to kind of come out on the wash
它不会让你的回报提高那么多 it's not going to improve your return that much
但它可能会改善你的波动性 but it might improve your volatility
好的，它可能也会改善 okay and it might also improve
释放你的资本，在你的资本工作 freeing up your capital to work at your capital
在别的地方，所以有别的东西在建立 somewhere else so something else is setting up
这不是很好 this isn't working very well
快开了，快到站了 it's coming off I'm getting close to my stop okay
还有一件事，我可能会卖一半 well here's another thing I might do I might sell half
因为 because
另一只股票也在建立假设在同一时间 another stock my is setting up let's say at that same
就像马库斯说的，给另一只股票计时 time another stock as Marcus said
这里有很多陷阱 there was a lot of setups here
还有一种股票看起来很不错 well there's another stock that looks perfect
好吧，我卖一半 okay so I'll sell half of this
坚持我的股票一半 stick with my stock on half
减半 and by half
另一个名字的职位，看起来更好 position in another name that's looking better
看到这么 see so
有很多选择 there's a lot of options
你有 you have
有很多选择 a number of options
但是这个工具箱 but that toolbox is
你知道有一定数量的工具 you know there's a certain number of tools
你不需要更多了 you don't need many more
你知道你会听到我说同样的话 you know you'll hear me saying the same thing
一遍又一遍地 over and over
关于我如何处理 on how I handle
你知道利润和亏损 you know the profits and the losses
锁定利润和融资风险 and locking in profits and financing risk
大概是6,7,8 there's like I don't know maybe 6 7 8
你知道的选项，我 you know options that I
95%的情况下都是这样 tend to do 95 percent of the time
这就是你所需要的 and that's really all you need
这些是工具还是战术 are those tools or those tactics
迈克尔在PSTG询问 Michael's asking on PSTG
PSTG PSTG
如果这 if this
枢轴收紧了 pivot is tighten up
以便考虑 for it to be considered
好吧 well
它肯定在收紧 it's definitely tightening up
你你这里确实有供应 you you do have some supply here
我喜欢这里绷紧的样子 I like the way it's tightening up right here
到这一层 into this level right here
让我们看看纯存储 let's see pure storage
让我提一下市场神话 let me bring up market's myth
PSTG PSTG
我想看看相对强度是多少 I want to see what the relative strength is
所以相对强度是89 so it's an 89 relative strength
你在这里赚了很多钱 you got big earnings here
你知道的，有巨大的收益 you know with the big giant earnings
我只是想知道它为什么不那么好 I'm just wondering why it's not doing so well
你知道的 you know it's
这真的是 it's really just been
我在这里待了一段时间 sort of languishing here for quite a while
答案还是没有真正的上升趋势 the answer and again you see there's no real up trend
这是 then this is with
就像我说的 like I talk about
你有时可以得到大的基地 with big bases you can sometimes get
200天的峰值在哪里 where the 200 day flattens out
它仍然是可行的 and it's still viable
这就是其中一种情况 this would be one of those scenario
其中一种情况是 one of those situations
所以相对强度线最近一直在改善 so the relative strength line has been improving lately
从技术角度来看，它看起来不错 it look it looks good from a technical basis
看起来真的很紧 it looks really tight
这里看起来不错 it looks nice here
嗯，是的，但是它是一个 um so yes but it is a
你知道我什么时候处于熊市 You know when I'm in a bear market
我想在99个相对品种的股票中 I want to be in the 99 relative strain stocks
不是9 not the 9 the
89 89
好吧，这有点像在走下坡路 okay this is sort of going down the trough here
这更像是一个落后者而不是领导者 um and this isacting more like a lagger than a leader
我很好奇 and I'm wondering with such
差别披露与如此巨大的收益 differential disclosure with such huge earnings
明年的估计是50% the estimates for this next year 50%
为什么它会落后这么多，这有点 um why is it lagging so much that's a little bit uh
你知道这让我有点犹豫，但是我 you know that's giving me a little bit of pause but I
我觉得它看起来足够好了 I think it looks good enough where
你可以 um you can uh
你知道你可以招待他的 you know you can entertain this one
我也想测量它 and also I would want to measure it
看看这里的波动率是多少 let's see what we got for volatility over here
这大概是8% so this is about 8%
因此，它正在收紧 so it is tightening up
你知道，相当紧 you know reasonably tight
我想如果这个真的收紧 I think if this tightened up really
非常完美 perfect and got really
真的很紧 really tight
我会把它放出来的 I would give it a play coming out
但如果价格波动，我不会买 but I wouldn't buy it if it's volatile
我绝对希望这是完美的 I definitely want this to be perfect
因为它没有高的相对强度 because it doesn't have the high relative strength
它有一点动作 it's acting a little bit
大盘落后于基本面 lagger dish versus the fundamentals
好吧，这也有点不稳定 all right this is a bit volatile here too
它开始收紧了 it is starting to tighten up
这样一来 so with that
我想用一个完美的 I want to offset that by having a perfectly
完美的支点 a perfect pivot
而且从一个风险很小的入口进入 and coming from a very little risk entry point
好吧 well
我们会留意的，我会把它放在这里 we'll keep an eye on it I'll keep that up here
我们会留意的 and we'll keep an eye on it
唐正在询问 don is asking about th
现在当飞行员是否为时过早 is it premature to enter a pilot position
右边的股票直线上升 the stock the right side it's going straight up
但是基本原理是 but the fundamentals yeah
我知道这是我经历过的 I know this is one that I've been
我有几次想跟你合作 wanting to get on board a couple times right here
然后它失败了，我把它看做 okay and then it failed and I looked at here as a
作为一个重置，它渐渐消失了 as a reset then it drifted off
它开始变得越来越不正常 and it started getting more abnormal
然后你真的 and then you really
这可能真的震惊了所有人 this really shook out probably everyone
这就是为什么你可以直冲云霄 and now that's why you can rip straight higher
因为你把所有人都打晕了 because you got knocked everyone out
此时此刻 at this point
只有事后你才会知道 only in hindsight are you gonna even know that though
你知道现在 um you know now
现在你有点你知道的 now you're getting sort of you know
艰难的跨界 the hard way crossover
并不是说它爆发了 not that it broke out
但它只是反弹得更高 but it's just ripping right back higher
在它走出低谷之后 after it shakes out a low
你知道我在这里是不会买的 you know I wouldn't buy it here
就在右边 running right up this right side
马上就会回到供应中 coming right back into the supply
哪里出了问题 where it's had trouble
你可以看到这里是它有问题的地方 you can see right here is where it's had trouble
我们马上回到那里 we're coming right back into there
你是你是直冲上去的 you're you're running straight up
右侧被压缩，没有枢轴 the right side compressedwith no pivot
所以我的意思是，如果它起飞了，我只能错过它 so I mean if this takes off then I just have to miss it
你知道，但如果它 you know but if it
如果它能回到这里，设置一个支点 if it can pull back here and set a pivot
现在你有了一个很好的底座你就有了一个 now you got a pretty good size base you'll have a um
1 2 3，现在可能是4 one 2 3 now maybe a 4
4个月的实习期 a 4 month base
那很好，你知道那是 that that's fine you know that that's um
即使是为了炫耀权力也没关系 that that that's fine even for a power play
让我们看看下降了多少，这就是我想看的原因 let's see what's the decline that's why I want to see
它拒绝了什么 what did it decline
现在是33 now you see now it's 33
大概是34% 35% it's about 34 35 percent
所以这不再 so this is no longer
让我们的火车准点到达，来进行权力的角逐 giving us the train coming on schedule for a power play
现在我们需要形成更大的碱 so now we need that larger base to form
好吧，尽管它还有双份 okay even though it still has the double
而是因为它被修正了很多 but because it's corrected so much
并不是说它没有这个强 it's not saying that it's not as strong as this as
正如你所相信的那样 as this would lead you to believe
所以我们可能需要更多的时间来检查供给 so so we may need more time to go through that supply
只是说他们在卖 just saying they're selling
看看当你有一只股票时，它是一个权力游戏 see when you have a stock that's a power play
它在很短的时间内运行100% it runs up 100% in a short period of time
而且只能纠正20%或更少 and only corrects 20 percent or less
然后它又出现了 and then it re emerges
也就是说供给非常少 that's saying there's very little supply
它告诉你那里有供应 this is telling you that there's supply there
有很多的供应 there's a bunch of supply
这就是为什么它一直在水里 that's why it's held in the water all this time
现在，这可能已经被淘汰了 now maybe that has just been weeded out
这是第一个 and this first
射到这里 shot up here is that
这是另一个迹象 that's another indication
我们把很多货都送出去了 that we got a lot of the supply out
但我们马上就会回到那个水平 but we're coming right back into that level
现在我们来测量这个 and now when we measure this
而你总是想衡量股票有多远 while you always want to measure the stock how far how
如何 how
股票是否正确 far the stock correct
你们附近有什么供应 what kind of supply do you have that's nearby
下降了35% coming off 35%
现在我要把它变成一个大底 now I want this to be a large base
现在的情况是我们需要一个完整的VCP now we're in a situation where we want a full blown VCP
耦合的处理 coupled handle
你知道我们想看到这种行动 you know we want to see this type of action
我们从哪来的 where we come in here
甚至可以在右边好好抖一抖 and maybe even have a nice shake out on the right side
然后你建造 and you build
你知道你和我都想看更多 you know you and I would want to see some more
VCP行动 VCP action
也许会有另一个迷你VCP过来 even another little mini VCP coming over here maybe
你知道，也许 you know maybe
甚至在里面放点小窍门 even get a little cheat in there
某处或某处 somewhere or something
我知道我没有全写进去，但是 I know I'm not filling all in there but
然后你从那里出来 and then you come out from there
也许是这样的 maybe something like that
你知道的，某种右侧发育 you know some type of right side development
给我一个提示，这个供应 to give me an indication that this supply
可以停止进入市场吗 can stop coming to market
现在我可以清除它了 and now I can clear it
与此同时，我克服了一切 at the same time and I get through everything
这个秋天我得去 I gotta get this fall and
继续吧，每个月都照一次 go ahead and take every month again
啊 ah
让我们看看 let's see
下一个问题是问Mark Richie deenders的 so this question next is for Mark Richie detenders
问 asking
在位置调整和逐步曝光教程 in position sizing and progressive exposure tutorial
马克·里奇提到过 Mark Richie mentioned that
人不会增加或减少 people do not increase or decrease
他们暴露得足够快 their exposure fast enough
你能用真实的交易数据解释一下吗 can you please explain this with real trading data
在某一时期 of certain period
你可以告诉我们怎么做 in which you can show us how
你增加或减少你的暴露 you increase or decrease your exposure
那太好了 that would be great
伟大的学习 a great learning
好吧，这其实更像是一个请求 okay well that's actually more of a request
那一个 that one
这是我们在某些时候可以做的事情 that's something we could do at you know at some point
当然，我必须准备一些例子 sure I have to you know prepare a few examples but yeah
来澄清我我所指的是什么 to clarify what I what I was referring to was
你知道，所以我们这么说吧 you know what so let's say
我们现在有一些设置，真的不多 we have some setups right now is really not many
但假设我们已经有了一些好的行动 but let's say we've got some good action
一些股票爆发 some stocks break out
我说的人们等待太久的意思是 what I mean by people wait too long is
你知道他们可能会当场买一两件 you know they might buy one or 2 and there and then
随后是一大堆其他股票 subsequently a whole bunch of other stocks
要么就准备出发吧 either set up and start moving
他们住的那个还在工作 while the ones they're in are working
那他们就等着 well then they wait until they
他们可能领先15分 there maybe they're up 15
或者20%是他们的名字 or 20 percent on the names they have
之前 before either
你知道，变得更有攻击性 you know getting more aggressive and
但与此同时，还有 but meanwhile there's there's
你知道的 you know confer
确认其他设置和股票的行动 confirming action from other setups and stocks
告诉你嘿 telling you hey
我们正处在一个分手可行的时期 we're in a period where breakups are working
所以你经常会得到 so you often then you know get
的人 people that
现在进攻会不会太晚了 are a little bit too late to sort of get aggressive
同样的事情也发生在 and the same happens on
另一方面，你会全身心投入 on the other side you get fully invested or
或者甚至是保证金 or maybe even on margin
突然间你就有了一些 and all of a sudden you get some
不再被击中 stops getting hit
然后 and then
人们继续购买突破 people continue to buy breakouts
在你知道同样大小的时候 at you know the same size when
你所了解的市场正在告诉你这一点 the market you know the action is telling you it
你必须开始 you have to start
更快地顺应市场 bending with the market faster
你知道关于你知道的例子 you know in regards to you know examples
然后给出最近的 and then give the most recent
就像我说的 you know like I mentioned
我买进XLE或多或少是作为一种交易 I bought the XLE more or less as a trade
开始工作 started working
然后我又加了几个名字，然后我想我 then I added a few other names and then I think I
和VX，我被拦下了 and VX I got stopped on that
我加了C O R T，我被拦下了 I added C O R T I got stopped on that
好吧，你知道的，我不会增大我的尺寸 well I'm not gonna bump up my size you know
但是我们假设 but let's say
你知道 you know
如果有一两个其他的名字 if one or 2 of those other names had blasted off
现在我要依靠利润了 now I'm you know I am going to lean on profits
打开利润，承担更多风险 open profits to take more risk
然后用它来争取更多的职位 and use that to sort of jockey for more position
我正试着穿上呢 I'm trying to put on
在不承担额外风险的情况下暴露更多 more exposure without taking additional risk
我唯一能做的就是靠在你身上 the only way I can do that is by leaning on
公开利润，这就是我的想法 open profits so that's kind of how I think about it
是的，这是一个快速的洞察 yeah what just add to real quick insight there for
这是我学得最多的事情之一 one of the things that I have Learned most about
在我超过35年的交易中 from Mark in my trading of over 35 years now is
我们已经提到过很多次了 and we've made the reference a number of times
2年半前的2020年春天 with COVID 2 and 1/2 years ago in the spring of 2020
市场很可怕，世界很可怕吗 is the market was scary the world was scary
你知道股票已经开始上涨了 and you know the stocks were setting up though
所以不要害怕 and so one not to get afraid
要遵守这个规则 to follow the rules of this
你的策略 of your strategy
这当然是在告诉我们要买股票 and that of course was telling us to be buying stocks
这是一方面 so that's one thing
但当你看到成功的时候，要增加它 but when you're seeing that success increase it
这就是我们所做的 and that's what we did
我们就这样 and we were
如果我没记错的话完全暴露在市场中 fully exposed to the market if I'm not mistaken
在你认识一个 within a few weeks after you know a
记录 the record
发生在2020年2月3月的裸市场 bare market that occurred in February March of 2020
我们从4月6日开始重返市场 we were back into the market starting April 6
并在4月底前在市场上全面曝光 and fully exposed in the market by the end of April
暴露量的增加 so that increase of exposure
让我们真正受益于 allowed us to really benefit from
什么是非凡的五月 what was a phenomenal May
六月七月八月恢复 June July August recovery
在2020年，这是其中一件事 in 2020 and so that is one of the things that
如果你害怕 if you were scared
如果你担心马克世界末日了 if you're worried the Mark the world was ending
而且你还没曝光 and you didn't get your exposure on
你不会有这种感觉的 you would not have had that
利用这份天赋的机会 opportunity to take advantage of that gift
市场提供的 that the market provided
反之 and conversely
当 when
我们准确地标记我们 we Mark us accurately
有几个转折点 called a number of the turning points
特别是在市场的高点 high points in particular in the market
在这里服役的13年里 over the fully documented 13 years of the service here
也就是说，甚至到一天甚至到一小时 namely even to the day sometimes even to the hour
但肯定是在几天之内 but certainly within a matter of a couple of days
市场的转折点 of turning points off the market
人们仍然没有 people still not
你知道，所有的市场都在上涨 you know thinking all the markets going up
它已经达到了历史新高 it's been hitting a new old time high
和雅达雅美，同时回顾十一月 and yada yadamy while look back on November
2021年第22期 22 of 2021
当标记最后一个细胞信号触发 when marked last cell signal triggered
看看有多聪明 and see how wise
或者你能过上好日子 or well off you would have been to get
全部变成现金 fully into cash
如果不确定移除 if not certainly removing a
当时有大量的市场敞口 lot of exposure to the market at that time
让我们继续 let's Move On
现金的 cash of
好吧 well
等马克来回答这个问题 wait for Mark for this one
戴夫是这里的新成员 Dave is a new member here
很高兴有一个加入 nice to have a join
是焦点列表 is the focus list
自上一周起至周一上午止 from the previous week void as of the Monday morning
是的，你的用户指南里有 yes that actually is in your user guide
我认为它应该列在那里 I believe it should be listed there
而且还在新用户教程视频中 but also in the new subscriber tutorial video
现在哪个会更新呢 which is actually going to get updated now guys
我们平台上的一些新功能 with some of the new features we have on the platform
但是, but the
当前列表 current list
每周的焦点名单是唯一有效的名称 of the Focus List each week is the only valid names
如果一个名字是有效的 if a name is to be valid again
在接下来的一周 for the following week
它将在下一周被转发 it will be reposted the following week
让我们看看安迪是怎么说的 let's see Andy saying that
马克·米尼维尼之前说过马克·里奇 Mark Minivini has said previously that Mark Richie
有时喜欢交易 sometimes likes to trade
休息喜欢交换休息 a rest likes to trade a rest
我只是想知道 I just wondered if
马克·里奇可以给我们举个例子 Mark Richie could show us an example of what
这可能是 this may be
我不知道那是什么意思 I have no idea what that means
我不知道休止符是什么 that a typo I don't know what a rest is
这算是一种模式吗 is that supposed to be a pattern or something
也许他们也许他可以 maybe they maybe maybe he can put
是的，明确一点 yeah put a clear
清晰的假期 clear vacation
也许他可以 maybe he can
最好把你要问的东西打出来 better type what you're asking
我不知道什么叫休息 there is no pattern I'm aware of called a rest
或者类似的东西 or anything like that
所以那是树桩 so that was a stump
哦，重置 oh a reset
抱歉，转售重置，当然 sorry a resell reset sure
哦，明白了，是的，重置就是股票 oh gotcha well yeah reset is simply where a stock
爆发，然后 breaks out and then
实际上TH是一个例子 actually this TH is sort of an example of what
马克画在这里 Mark drew in here
现在我们说 now let's say
我们几个月前就试过了 you know we we we we tried this several months ago
这是一个例子 this would be an example really
不是重置 not a reset but
可能在短时间内它摇动了主元 where maybe in short order it shakes out the pivot
然后回来，在附近收紧 and then comes right back and tightens up near where
假设之前的爆发是 say the prior breakout was
我们会举个例子 um we'll put up an example when
当马克打完电话回来的时候，是的，我 when Mark comes back from the call but yeah I
从股票的角度来考虑 think of it in terms of the stock hasn't
还不够坏 hasn't broken down enough
你知道有一个基本的失败或其他的 you know to sort of have a base failure or anything
然后它就会被摇出来 and then it just experiences a shake out
有时我也参与了这场大甩卖 sometimes I'm a part of the shake out
或者你也有可能被甩出去 or you might be a part of the shake out
这样你就不会忽视它了 so you don't take it off your radar
你等 you wait
才有可能重新开始 for that reset to potentially get back on board
GT GT
我认为注释工具仍然很有价值 I thought the annotation tools are still valuable
我想看，但找不到 which I'm trying to see but I'm not finding them
也许如果石碑突出 perhaps if markstone projecting
我不知道这些有什么用 I don't get the use of those
但是，当然 but yeah absolutely
故障复位或枢轴复位和底座故障复位 failure reset or pivot reset and base failure reset are
2个标记 2 of marks
我再说一遍也是其中之一 what I again would also say is one of the
我们说过的巨大的金块 huge golden nuggets that we talked about
其实这 actually this
我们将会在一个高级交易员课程中讲到 we'll be talking about in a master trader program
实际上是下周末 and actually is next weekend
但那就是不要放弃一只股票 but that is to not give up on a stock
就因为它可能会阻止你 just because it might have stopped you out
你在这上面赔了钱 and you lost money on it
你诅咒它 and you curse it
直到你死 to your death
这是你最不想做的事吗 is the last thing you want to do
股票最初符合你的标准是有原因的 the stock met your criteria for a reason originally
所以要时刻关注它 and therefore keep it on your radar
如果它重置了 and if it does reset
我们绝对 we absolutely
并不是在寻找那个 aren't looking for that
拉乌尔问 Raoul is asking
如果我们错过了市场领头羊的爆发 if we miss the breakout of a market leader
一个行业和它的最大竞争对手 of a sector and its top competitor
但这个行业很火爆 but the sector is hot
我们要做股票设置的领导者吗 do we play the stock setup leader
哪些可能是落后者 which are probably the laggards
一般来说，我一点也不喜欢落后者 generally I don't like playing laggards at all
一个很好的例子是 so a good example would be
你知道参加XLE考试 you know take the XLE
这就是为什么会有一些油的原因之一 this is one of the reasons why there are some oil on
回来 back
你们需要图表吗 do you guys need any charts
我很抱歉没有 to bring up I'm sorry not
还 just yet
好吧 well
我这里有一个重置的例子 I've got an example of a reset we can bring up here
但我只是想说明一下落后者的问题 but I was just making the point about laggards
你知道 you know
有些石油公司现在成立了，我不知道 some of the oil names that are setting up now I don't
你知道，这是我如何 you know that's a good example of how I
你知道我不会喜欢的 You know I'm not gonna favor those
因为你知道X L E because you know the X L E
小组的领导们已经成立了 and the leaders in the group have already set up
它们是一个新的高地 and are a new high ground
如果他们现在准备好了 so if they're setting up now
个别石油名称跌破高位 below the highs individual oil names
这些将是更多的落后者 those would be more laggards
所以如果我想念领导，我一般不会 so yeah if I miss the leaders I generally don't
想玩落后者 want to play the laggards
是啊，我已经看过了 yeah I've been looking at those you know already
你一开始是在一个循环基团里 you're in a cyclical group to begin with
现在你开始扮演落后者 and now you start playing the laggers
我在这方面收效甚微 I have had very little success doing that
如果你要这么做，我也会这么做 and if you're going to do that I would
实际上只是用它们进行短期交易 literally just use them for short term trades
我是马克带大的，我只是 I was Mark bring up I N B X I was just
这至少是一个 this is one at least
我在找可能的故障复位 I'm looking for a potential failure reset
这可能会成为焦点 that might go on focus at some point
我玩我玩这个名字 I played I played this name
你知道，试着从这个低级的欺骗中走出来 you know trying to come out of this little low cheat
两三周前 2 or 3 weeks ago
停在外面 got stopped out
这是一个尚未重置的例子 this is an example of something it hasn't reset yet
但也有可能，所以当我在看的时候 but it might so it's when I'm watching
他想要一个重置的例子 he was asking for an example of a reset
但是要记住 but just remember
看到了吗 see you got
200天的下跌趋势在哪里 where the 200 days in a down trend
当它建立的时候 when it was setting up
这就是那个角度警告 and that's that angle warning
这就是我们甚至没有提前转弯的地方 and that's where we don't even have an early turn
所以，即使是用武力 so even with a power play
即使是权力游戏也有困难的时候 even a power play has a hard time
逆潮流而动 going against the trend
当你有一个长期趋势的时候 when you have a long term trend
你看，那是因为这个巨大的下降 you see and that's because of this big decline
所以这可能还需要一点时间 so this may just need a little more time
现在我们要把200张画平了 now that we're starting to flatten out the 200
在30天左右的时间里呈上升趋势 we get that in an uptrend for 30 days or so 30 60 days
也许我们能在这里找到一些腿 maybe we can get some legs here
但这是我们肯定有的 but this is one that we definitely have
在甲板清单上 on the on deck list
好吧，我们通过了一个问号 okay there was a question Mark that we passed with you
不在这里 not here
在市场向导书 in Market wizard Book
大卫·瑞恩说 David Ryan says
你应该卖掉一半的头寸 you should sell half your position when
价格回到基础之内 the price comes back within the base
你对此有何看法 what are your views on this
你知道 you know
我会再次关注违规行为，然后再回来 again I would look to the violations and coming back
回到基地 back in the base
大卫·莱恩说的山是什么意思 what David Ryan means by the hills
它意味着回来 it means just coming back and
你知道的一点点，还有内心的感动 you know a little bit and touching inside
60%的股票会爆发 you know 6 50 60% of stocks a breakout
回来，他们又回到了爆发点 come back and they come back to the breakout point
或者他们甚至会降低你的购买价 or they even undercut your purchase price
所以你会经常被拦下 so you'd be getting stopped out a lot
但如果它深入基地 but if it comes deep into a base and
通常到那时你就会被侵犯了 and usually by then you're gonna get violations
你会你会被判违规的 you're gonna you're gonna get the violations
你可能会有很大的容量返回 and you might have high volume coming back in
低音量输出 low volume out
你知道你会看到这些违规的 you know you'll see those violations
所以这是必须的 so it really has to be
具体情况具体分析 look that on a case by case basis
我不认为你能想出 I don't think you can come up with
我知道我可以替大卫说话 and I know I can speak for David on this
这不是一条硬性规定 that is not a hard fast rule
我可以向你保证 I can assure you
这不是硬性规定 that's not a hard fast rule
这是主观的 it's subjective
你必须这么做 you're gonna have to
你得自己做个判断了 you're gonna have to make a judgment call on that
但是再一次 but again
你知道你的刹车是否足够紧 you know if your stops are tight enough and you're
你看到的是违规行为 and you're looking at the violations you're
你可能会收到多个警告 you're gonna probably get multiple warnings
你知道在一个短片里 you know in a clip with
除此之外 in addition to that
raouls提出的问题 question from raouls asking with the
公司类别的概念 idea of company categories
不是消费零售或休闲娱乐 aren't consumer retail or leisure entertainment
周期性的组 cyclical groups
因为他们会随着经济的发展而变化 because they move with the economy
消费者的零售商 consumer retailer
可以 could
可能是，但通常不是 could be but they're usually not
他们不是因为喜欢 they're not because like
甚至像阿夫罗卡维亚人 even like something like an Avrokavian
费奇，不然你就会 Fitch or you get into a
可能是一家汉堡连锁店或者 company that maybe is a hamburger chain or
或者你知道的快餐店 or you know a fast food place
这些都是千篇一律的概念 these are cookie cutter concepts
这些概念 these are concepts that
你会看到被踩灭的 you'll see stamped out
在美国和世界各地 all over America and all over the world
他们一直在复制它们 and they just keep duplicating them
所以这是一个可扩展的业务 so it's a scalable business
你知道，它可以生长 and it can grow you know
随着经济的发展 with the economy
没有经济 without the economy being
与经济紧密相连 tethered so much to the economy
当然可以 yes of course
你知道 you know
如果你知道的话，餐馆会受到影响的 restaurants are going to be affected if you know
一切都会受到影响 everything's affected if the
你知道如果经济 you know if the economy
会陷入严重衰退吗 was to go into a deep recession
但是，呃，但是不，我会说不，那些不是 but uh but no I would say no those are not
这些都不是周期性的群体 those would not be cyclical groups
你知道，我只是想指出我认为 you know I would just point out that I think the
消费品零售绝对不是 consumer retail is definitely not
周期性的 cyclical in the sense of
收入能力 uh the earnings power
你知道那才是我们真正的 you know that's what we're really
马克说的那些爆炸性收入 those explosive earnings like Mark was saying
因为他们有这样的观念 because they have this concept that
你知道他们可以在哪里继续 you know where they can continue
把真正的大收益放在哪里 to put up really big earnings where
就像石油或黄金一样 like a group like oil or or gold
完全不同，你知道吗 is completely different you know
我们在周末强调了奥利斯 we just highlighted Ollies over the weekend
讽刺的是，离我十英里的地方终于有家店了 ironically there's finally a store 10 miles from me
股价很好地反映了这种扩张 it took well the stock was pricing that expansion in
我想是7年前公司上市的时候 7 years ago I think when the company went public
他们有100家店 they had 100 stores
现在他们有4500人了 and now they've got something like 4 500
因此，股价已经反映了所有这些增长 so the stock was pricing in all that growth
四五年前 you know 4 or 5 years ago
当它在 when it was in
一个完美的杯子和手柄与大收益 a perfect cup and handle with big earnings
然后跳出来 and breaking out um
但你知道的 but you know it's
我是这么说的，现在的时尚更是如此 I'm saying that and the fads are even more so
我的意思是权力和收益 I mean the power and those earnings are
这时你就需要集中注意力了 that's when you want to pay attention
当这些收入摆到桌面上的时候 when those earnings are on the table
因为他们正处于赚钱周期的那个阶段 because they're in that part of their earning cycle
奥利斯公司经营得很好 and Ollies is a really well run business
优秀的管理 excellent management
我不认为他们有过 I don't think they've ever had
一家不赚钱的商店 a store that wasn't profitable
但你还是要看股票 but again you have to look at the stock
因为我们不知道折现了什么 because we don't know what's been discounted
正如马克刚才所说 as Mark just said
这是我所说的基本合理但价格不合适的 what I call fundamentally sound but not price ready
你想买只是因为股票基本面良好 you want just because the stock is fundamentally sound
不意味着它的价格准备好了吗 does not mean it's price ready
并不意味着 does not mean that
那个，那个，那个 that the that the the
价格已经打了折扣了 the price has uh discounted uh
或许它已经忽略了所有的好消息 or maybe it has discounted all that good news and now
这是对未来的折现 um you know it's discounting the future again
哪里可能会减速 where maybe there's a slowdown
或者只是需要时间 or it needs just time for the um
收益要赶上价格 the earnings to catch up to the price
因为很多情况下会发生的是它会 because lots of what will happen is it'll it'll
价格最终会加速下跌 the price will eventually accelerate and go
远高于收入 way above the earnings
当股票变得非常非常的时候 if the when the stock gets really really
很受欢迎，而且做得很好 popular and it's doing really well
结果发生了很多 what ends up happening is a lot
零售资金就在那里 retail money comes in there
运行起来 runs it up
机构出售，这是最高的 institution sell into that that's what tops it
这远远超过了它的收益 and it gets way ahead of its earnings
它是不可持续的 it gets unsustainable where it
在哪里过度补偿 where it over compensates
这就是修正的地方，然后 and that's where now you get the correction and then
现在它必须对下行进行过度补偿 you now it has to overcompensate on the downside
当你知道 and while you know
业余爱好者会说，哦，收益不错 amateurs will look and say oh the earnings are great
是啊，但为什么表现不好呢 yeah but why isn't it performing well
因为它已经折现了 that because again it's already discounted that
所以你得等股票定价好之后 so you gotta wait for the stock to be priced ready when
如果你看荆棘周马克 if you look at bramble weekly Mark
这是一个完美的例子 it's just a perfect example
你知道我的意思 you know I mean
我们在哪里投资这只股票 where we were playing this stock
我想自从你知道我们 I don't think we've played it since you know we
我们强调了几次那个洞 we highlighted a few times that hole
你知道的，沿着左边走 you know run up the left hand side
现在基本上是避免了 and now it's basically been an avoid
我是说任何人 I mean anyone who
了解阿尔法和波动率 understands you know alpha and volatility
不用看得太远就知道了 doesn't have to look very further to know that
在哪里? where's the alpha
波动性在哪里 and where's the volatility
让我看看这个 let me look at this
看看差别这是对数刻度 look at the difference this is a log scale by the way
看看这个秋千 look at this swing
你认为这是一个有把手的杯子吗 do you think this is a cup of handle
有些人看到这个会说 some people would look at this and go oh
这是形成一个杯柄 this is forming a cup of handle
我要把它买下来 I'm gonna buy it coming out here
如果这是一个巨大的下降，对吧 if this is a gigantic enormous decline right
这当然是在熊市中发生的 and this came of course in the bear market
回来撕扯 came ripping back
它被撕开的非常非常大 and it ripped back real real big
你可能会说，看它有多强 and you could say well look how strong it is
是的，但是看看它的衰落 yes but it look at the decline that it made
你知道你想谈谈日常开销 you know you want to talk about overhead supply
70%左右 70 some odd percent
现在它又回来了 and now it comes back and
在很短的时间内抹去这一切 erases all that in a very short period of time
你有大量的供应 you've got tons and tons of supply
你有一大堆陷阱买家，还有 you've got tons of trap buyers and you've got
来自底层渔民的巨额利润 huge profits from the bottom fishers
这是在它做出重大举动之后 and this is now after it made a big move
但是看看这个 but look at this
这是你想参与的地方 this is where you want to be involved
看看效率 look at how efficient
以及它是如何爬到这里的 and how it just rides its way up here
这些股票在这个阶段 these stocks when they're in this phase
有时他们会骑50天3 4 500%的移动 sometimes they ride the 50 day for 3 4 500% moves
而且他们甚至不会降价 and they don't even undercut
它们没有同时收于50日移动均线 they don't close both of 50 day moving average
没有一次 not one single time
和我之前的观点一样 and yeah to my previous point
这支股票的收益很好 the earnings were good in the stock
布莱斯是在贴现未来的增长 and the Bryce was discounting that future growth
现在情况完全不同了 now totally different story
绝对 absolutely
BIIB问题 question on BIIB
稍等一下 hold on a second
我一直在看 BII B I've been watching it
还不足以 not enough to
成为一个权力的游戏 to be a power play
安德烈亚斯每周买一次 Andreas bought it weekly
三天前在第八区 3 days ago in the 8th
就是问你会如何处理 and just what is asking how would you handle
差价上的交易获利这一项就对了 the trade with the gap up profit this one right
所以我不确定今天早上有什么新闻 so I'm not sure there's our news this morning
它上新闻了吗 is it up on news
我没看今天有什么新闻 I didn't see if there was news today
但是，再说一遍 but but again
你知道你现在赚了不少钱 well it's you know you're at a nice profit now
你知道你的选择 so your options you know
打开这里，看看你是不是在问我这个问题 open up here and again you see if you're asking me that
我知道你想知道 I mean I understand you want to know
你知道你想在这里学习 you know you want to learn here
但你应该有个计划 but you should have a plan
问题是你打算怎么做 the question is what did you plan on doing well you did
这是你计划好的吗 did you plan for this like if
如果库存缺口上升你会说如果库存缺口 if the stock gaps up did you say well if the stock gap
我今天有20%的利润 I'm at a 20% profit today on the gap up
你知道我的计划吗 you know what's my plan um
并不是说你必须要有目标 and again not that you have to have targets
但你确实需要一些应急计划 but you do want to have some contingency planning
你们知道的 you know again
在这种情况下，我是说我，我不知道 in this situation I mean me I don't know
我不能告诉你 I can't tell you
我不知道，我也不知道 I don't know what and I didn't
我没有决定买它，也没有计划 I didn't make a decision to buy it and have a plan
所以我不知道你们知道我在这里的百分比是多少 so I don't know you know what percentage I'm up here
让我看看 you know let me see
你三天前买的 you bought it 3 days ago
一个2 one 2
我不知道你是不是在这里买的，所以 3 I don't know if you bought it here so
哦，我们到这里吧 whoops let's get here
我就从这里开始 I'll just take from here
哦，是的，所以你还没睡 oh yeah so you're only up
这只占到4%或5% this is only up to 4 or 5%
所以这看起来很大，看起来是个大动作，但是 so it looks big it looks like a big move but
我不会卖的 I wouldn't be selling it
你知道我很少会卖出股票 you know I'm very rarely going to sell a stock
波动交易上涨了4%或5% up 4 or 5% on a swing trade
只是我承担的风险不够 it just doesn't pay for my risk
是的 yeah
有正确的 there right
你进去的时候 you went in there with a
你知道你是带着一个 you know you went in there with a
你知道，我停下来，然后 you know ¢50 stop and
现在是a and now it's up a
也许它能赚很多钱 bunch of dollars you know maybe it makes
感觉你知道卖它 sense you know to sell it
我不知道你的计划是什么真的 again I don't know what your plan was it really
这不是 it's not
我在假设的情况下会怎么做很重要 important what I would do in a hypothetical situation
重要的是什么 it's important is what
你的计划和你冒的风险 you planned for here and how much risk you took
有多少奖励和你的 and how much reward and what your
你知道你是在为一个大 you know are you playing this for a big
你想搬家吗 move are you trying to
让自己进入一个自由的角色 get yourself in at a in a free role
为了更大的举动而玩它，你只是在倒卖 and play it for a bigger move are you just scalping
你知道但我不能告诉你 you know without knowing that I can't tell you
我会怎么做，因为我没有计划 what I would do because I don't have a plan
我想是这样 I thought it
会导致更大的切线，但我猜不是 would lead to a bigger Tangent but I guess not
不不 nope nope
它试图激励你 it's trying to inspire you
GT要求一个C L X GT is asking a C L X
是的 yeah
现在要撤退了吗 has to pull back by now a
太深太长了，不适合合适的设置 bit too deep and too long for a proper setup
这是回调时间 that's the pullback by
好吧 well
我不知道 I don't know
你在说什么你得给我日期 what what you're referring to you gotta give me dates
什么回调 what pullback
我们正在谈论的 by we're talking about
这是我能做的一部分 that's part of what I can
你需要解释一下 you need to explain
你错过了2天前的回调 you missed the pullback by which is already 2 days ago
大约12 about 12
13%的回调买入并不深 13 percent the pullback buy is not too deep
如果我们指的是10号的这个 if we're referring to this right here on the 10th
我认为这只是形成的过程 I think this is just in the process of forming
一个大底座上的把手 a handle here on a big base
如果这能成立 and if this can set up
我想看它在这里设置一个低欺骗 I'd love to see it set up a little low cheat here
也许可以在那里开始工作 and maybe start a position there
然后如果它可以扩展 and then if it can build out
完成底部 finish out the base
再加上一点 maybe add to it
但现在说这个还为时过早 but this is still a little premature here
这是一个 that's one that
你知道我在看 you know I'm watching
我在甲板上 I have on deck
它很接近于 and it's close to you know being one that would
点击焦点列表 hit focus list
Jeff问的好问题，如果你知道的话 good question here from Jeff if you know
你在轻松赚钱环境下的击球率 your batting average in easy dollar environments
而不是在困难的环境中 versus that of hard penny environments
我可以给你一个范围 well I can give you a range
绝对是的 yeah absolutely
在非常困难的环境中 in really difficult environments
我的意思是我有过糟糕的 I mean I've had bad
我的打击率在15%到25%之间 my batting average at 15 to 25 percent
取决于哪天，哪周或哪月 you know depending on which day or which week or month
但通常你所处的环境都很糟糕 but usually really bad environments you're in the
你才20多岁，30多岁 you're in the 20s the 30s
我所处的环境非常好 in really good environments I'm in
有时高达60度 sometimes to high 60s
我甚至比那高过一点，但是 I've even been a little higher than that but
在短时间内 for short periods of time
但通常你都60多岁了 but usually you're in the 60s
50到60多岁，环境良好 the 50s to the 60s in good environments
在 in
总的来说，40到50岁 overall the 40s to 50s
在恶劣的环境下，20到30岁 and in bad environments to 20s to 30s
关于图表设置的好问题 good question about your chart setting
价格是对数刻度或正常刻度 price being on a log scale or normal scale
好吧 well
如果你想要大动作的话 if you're looking at large moves then
你想要对数刻度 you want log scale
否则 because otherwise
所有在图表底部的东西 everything on the bottom of the charts
都能被压扁吗 can be all squished
非常小 really small
你看不到你知道这意味着什么 you won't be able to see you know what what it means
所以基本上这取决于你知道 so that basically it depends on you know
移动的大小，但是对数尺度会 the size of the move but log scales are going to
给10%的移动 give what a 10 percent move here
这里将会有10%的变动 it's gonna be a 10 percent move here
如果这是200美元 if this is a 200 dollar
这是10美元的范围 range here and this is a 10 dollar range
距离还是一样的 you're still gonna have the same distance
所以你可以比较两个苹果 so you can compare apples to apples
这是你对100%移动的感觉吗 is it typically what you feel about 100% moves
股票就是你的起点 and the stock is where you start
将在 converting over
转换什么 converting over what
全部日志技能 all log skill
我不知道，我不能这么说 I don't know there's no I can't say that
好让我们 okay let's
看一下图表，看看是什么样子 have a look at the chart and see what it looks like
问题 gotcha
布鲁斯正在问PRTA Bruce is asking on PRTA
清除了8号的轻微盘整 cleared minor consolidation on the 8th
是圣经的转折点吗 is at a Bible pivot point
穿过周五和今天 that across Friday and again today
我会说不 I would say no
你知道，不是为了我 you know for not for me
这不是 this isn't
紧得够脆 tighten crisp enough
它可能会起作用它可能会在这里成功，但是 it may work it may just take off here but
我想看看 I'd want to see
它又直接进入供给了 it's going right into the supply again
如果你在这里画一条线 if you draw a line right through here
你将进入 you are going into
基地里有很多物资 a good deal of supply in this base
你知道 you know
一半的交易在这个水平之上，一半在这个水平之下 half of the trading is above that level half is below
约 approximately
即使这里很紧 even if this stayed really tight here
让你说，这真的很紧 let you say this got really tight
现在就住几天 now for a couple days
很抱歉 sorry about that
这里有几天很紧张 this got tight for a couple days here
那看起来真的很不错 that really would look pretty nice
它从那里出来 and it come out from there
那个小装载表准备好了 that little load sheet set up
我仍然不会在那里采取我的全部立场 I still would not take my full position there
左边有这么多东西 not with this supply to the left
我，我可能会 I I I would probably
只需要小一点的位置，加上我的语气 only take a smaller position and put my tone in it
我不知道你呢，马克，你觉得你 I don't know how about you Mark do you think you
你变得有攻击性 you get aggressive
如果一切都很顺利的话 maybe if things were working really well
这正是我想说的 the things that's exactly what I was gonna say
我会说 and I would say
这就是我不玩的原因 the reason I wouldn't play
这是因为真的 this is because there's really
任何地方都没有收紧政策 no tightening at all anywhere
我的意思是，我甚至不认为这是低级欺骗 I mean that that I wouldn't even call that a low cheat
你知道的，我知道我知道他想做什么 you know it I see what I see what he's trying to do
如果我要试着加入进来 and if I was gonna try and get on board this
我可能会这么做 that's probably how I would do it
但是这里没有收紧 but it just yeah there's no tightening there
是的，我会说 yeah I would say
你知道，现在还没有紧缩政策 you know with the lack of tightening yet
但是你知道 but you know
如果你想在水底捕鱼 if you're going to try to bottom fish something
你当然知道这是正确的方法 certainly you know this would be the way to do it
我想我们一直在寻找 I think we're always looking
你看看有没有什么是 you see if there's any one thing that is
在我买的每一件东西中都很普遍 prevalent in every single buy that I make or at least
99%都是来自 99% of them it's from
紧度和价格在右侧 tightness and price on the right side
如果你去和大卫·瑞安·比尔·奥尼尔谈谈 and that if you were to talk to David Ryan Bill O'Neill
你知道吗 you know any
任何一个商人 any of the traders
还有那些你知道的传承人 and the legacy guys that you know are doing
同质的东西 something homogenous
策略或战术和技巧 strategies or tactics and techniques
完全一样的东西 the same exact thing
你知道大卫·瑞恩正在看右边 you know David Ryan is looking at that right side
只是在一开始 only in the beginning
如果他看不到正义的一面 if he doesn't see the right side
甚至不看股票，也不看股票 doesn't even look at the stock or check into the stock
直到他看到右侧收紧 until he sees some tightening on the right side
以同样的方式 on the same way
这是我最先注意到的 that's sort of what my eye gravitates to that first
如果我看不清楚那就知道了 if I don't see that well then know
如果像这样很接近，就很接近了 now if it's close like this is close
我开始发挥我的想象力 I start using my imaginations and
这可能是几天后的事 well this could actually be in a couple days
所以我会把它列入监视名单 so I'll put this on my watch list
但在这之前 but until it
直到价格巨头，你知道我一般 till the price titans you know I'm generally
住了 staying away
哦好吧 oh okay
特蕾莎只是在说 Teresa was just sharing that that
BIIB上的差距是由竞争对手造成的 gap on that BIIB was due to a competitor
做过现场药物试验 had a field drug trial so that's
好吧 well
这不是真正的大新闻，但它是一个小新闻 that's not real big news but it's a little bit of news
我可以给它加油 I can give it some gas
但这并不是真正意义上的新闻 but that's not real significant news
这有助于 that helps
让我看看这里 let me see here
下一个是我 I just got next up here
和我们之前讨论的问题一样 same questions as we were talking about
在东北地区的回调买盘 pullback buys on a N E T
是啊，那就得小心了 yeah that would be concerned to pull back by
是的，我是说你可以 yeah I mean you can
你可以说它是 you can say it is
当然它被拉回了 certainly it pulled back
然后它移动到前几天的高点之上 and then it moves above the previous days high
所以我是说 so I mean
任何能做的事你都可以说是一种倒退 anything that does that you can say is a pull back by
重要的是环境 it's the context that matters
还有设置的质量等等 and the quality of the setup and so forth
所以我认为这是一个更草率的 so I'd say this is more of a sloppy one
但它被拉了回来 but it is pulled back by
是的，如果你是 yep and if you're
对这只股票感兴趣 interested in this stock
这是让我加入的好办法 this would be a way to get on board
维克多要求反向恢复 Victor is asking on a reversal recovery
如果这是可以交易的 if that is tradable
只要它不是离枢轴太远 as long as it's not too far above the pivot
如果不是，为什么不呢 and if not why not
如果逆转恢复是可交易的 if a reversal recover is tradable
只要符合标准就行 only if it meets the criteria
通常情况下你都需要被指 that you would normally need to be meant anyway
举个例子 so for instance here's a perfect example
PCVX希望他们就在这里 PCVX which wants them right here
到目前为止，它还挺得住，而且很紧 so far it's holding up and it's staying tight
现在在这里你有一个反转 now right here you havethe reversal
因此，高于这一水平将是一种逆转复苏 so getting above that would be a reversal recovery
这并不比 this isn't too much higher than
你知道基地本身的到来 you know the base itself of coming it's
我觉得差不多了 and I would say it's almost
这已经是基地的一部分了 pretty much part of the base at this point
你可以看到这里只高了一点点 you can see right here that's only a little bit higher
所以 so
我将 I would
如果我不是已经在这了 if I wasn't in this already
是的 yeah
我想你可以在46 - 57上面买到 I think you can buy this right here above this 46 57
只要它保持紧，这是关键 as long as it stays tight that's the key
你要确保这是紧的 you want to make sure this is tight
我也会看周报 I will also look at the weekly
我们只有 and again we've only got
现在我们有3个星期的时间，或者说开始在这里紧绷着 now we've got 3 weeks or starting to stay tight here
它绷得越紧，你就越紧 the longer it stays tight and you get tight
每周闭馆 closes on the weekly
你可以每天都在这里收紧 and you can really tighten up here on the daily
它的爆炸潜力就越大 the more explosive potential that this has
所以 so
关键是它 key is that it's
这个水平不是这么高 that this level is not you know way up here
看起来像这样吗 does this look like this
你有这个大的 and you have this big
巨大的逆转 giant reversal now
不，那是从基地的大部分地区延伸过来的 no that's extended now from the majority of the base
所以我就不用high了 so I would not use the high there
这些逆转 and these reversals
再说一次，这些深蹲和倒立是更加不祥的 again these squats and reversals are much more ominous
它们越大 the larger they are
它们就越不吉利 the more ominous they are
就越难恢复过来 and the more difficult it's gonna be to recover
为了得到这个指示 and to get that indication
这是一个反转复苏 that's a reversal recovery
没有股票被超级扩展 without the stock being super extended
但是在这种情况下，我会 so but in this situation I would I would
我会说是的 I would say yes
你可以在突破以上反向买入 you can buy in the breakout above the reverse
右上方的反转 the reversal high right
哦R A oh R A
她在问 She is asking
认为这是圣经 thoughts of this being bible
还是右腿还需要更多的发展 or does the right side still need more development
好吧 well
你看，这个上升得很厉害 you see this ran up real strong here
右边肯定是压缩过的 and this is definitely compressed right side
我得看看我自己 I have to take a look at me
看那边，等一下 see over here hold on
拿出这张市场史密斯的图表 gonna bring up this Market Smith chart
我知道你没有看到整个图表 and I know you're not seeing the whole chart
我是说这个看起来真的很不错 I mean this this looks really good
你可以看到收益 earnings you can see
从负加速到微正加速 are accelerating from negative to slightly positive
然后是下一年增长48% and then you've got next year up 48 percent
你可以看到收益 so you can see the earnings
很明显，这是基于未来收益的交易 it's trading on future earnings obviously
看周刊 looking at the weekly
基数相当大 pretty big base
这个这个问题很难回答 this this one's a tough one
这是我自己的判断 it's a judgment call on this one
我的意思是 I mean
这些更容易失败 again these are more failure prone
当你像这样向上跑的时候，你不会向后漂 when you run up like this you don't drift back
不过，这是关于收益的 this was on earnings though
我喜欢它是关于收益的 I like the fact that it was on earnings
不过我还是会管得紧一点 I would keep this on a short leash though
你知道这样的事情 you know something like this
回到我的，它在哪里，我们走 get back to my where is it there we go
我自己就不谈了 I'm gonna pass on this myself
有点太长了 it's a bit extended
这是一个这是一个短的支点 and it's a it's a short little pivot here
我自己也会传下去的 I I would pass on it myself
但是如果你 but again if you
你知道你是否喜欢公司和你 you know if you like the company and you you
如果你喜欢这里的情况，你就想加入我们 you like what's going on here you want to get on board
是啊，你可以在爆发时买到 yeah you can buy this on a breakout
但是因为失败率是 but because the failure rate is
它在右边 it's running up this right side
你要压右边 you gotta compress right side
你还没把右边锻炼好 you haven't really built out this right side
在基底有松散的对称 in the base there's the lax symmetry
这是一个较低的概率 it's a lower probability
所以我会通过降低风险来抵消这一点 so I would offset that by taking less risk
也许他们的仓位规模较小，或者股票供不应求 maybe they're smaller position size or a tighter stock
是的 yep
格雷格在打听伊莱·莉莉 Greg is asking on Eli Lily
今早的地震之后，如果 after the shake up this morning and and if the
他们本来要在这里关门的 they was to close right here
这是一辆后拉式自行车吗 would this be sign up as a pullback bike
没有 no
不，我不会，对我来说，这只是不够有序 no I wouldn't for me this is just not orderly enough
那里的波动性仍然很大 there's still too much volatility there
所以我会 so I would
注意昨天的高成交量 notice the high high volume yesterday
还有一件事 here's the other thing
我觉得你们又忘了一件事 here's something I think you guys are forgetting again
整袋虎钳都在底座内 whole bag vise are within the base
在基地内 okay within the base
这不是在底里面，而是在底上面 this is not within the base this is above the base
我在这里买的突破器 the breakout I'm buying over here
我买的地方出现了回调 this is a pullback by right here where I bought
好了，这是另一个回撤点 okay here's another pullback by here
然后就爆发了 and then it broke out
所以你会因为突破而出现回调 so you have a pullback by breakout fall through
这些是买入点 these are the buy points
这是基底，对吧 here's the base right let's let's
从这个角度看，这是基座 get some perspective here that's the base
现在你已经离开基地了 now you've moved outside the base
所以现在，当你玩回调的时候 so now when you're playing this pullback by
就在这里 from this breakout right here
让我们从这个回弹球里看看 let's see even from this pullback ball
我把它放到这个高度 I'll give it up to this high right here
现在你要在这上面买 and now you're gonna be buying above there
现在你买了8% okay now you're buying it almost 8 percent
从底座延伸 extended from the base
你已经放弃了8%的 so you've given up 8% already of the
利润的一部分 of the profit
我的意思是，我知道你们中的许多人都在以8%的价格出售 I mean I know many of you are selling at 8%
你知道的 you know so so
这就是 this would be the
如果你是一个短线交易者，你就会看到小区 cell zone if you're a short term trader
所以这只是一种自然反应 so no this is just a natural reaction now and there's
这里有波动性 and there's volatility here
你想再次远离波动性 you want to stay away from volatility again
这个有紧的动作吗 does this have tight action no
动作不紧 no tight action
事实 matter of fact
这是我们见过的最广泛的行动 this is the widest action that we've seen
几乎在整个过程中 pretty much in the entire time it's been
立足和突破 basing and breaking out
所以 so
为什么我要在这种波动中交易呢 why am I gonna try to go trade around this volatility
我来的正是时候 I got in at the right time
好吧 okay
我冒了险，它跑到这里来了 I de risked itas it ran up here
现在我可以自由滚动了，所以现在我要 and now I'm free rolling so now I'm just gonna
现在我可以让股票波动了 now I can let the stock be volatile
我要么赚更多的钱 and I'm either gonna make more money
否则我什么都不会失去 or I'm gonna lose nothing
这是一个很好的位置 that's a great position to be in
但如果你在波动性上买入 but if you're buying right here on the volatility
这不是我想要的 now that's not what I want to
这不是我想要的交易 that's not what I want to be trading
围绕波动率 around the volatility
而且 and
我刚刚提到了昨天周五的成交量 again just mentioning the volume yesterday Friday is
我们要找的不是关了的牢房 not what we're looking for on a cell off
我们也没有把平均体积翻倍 we don't double the average volume there either
即使是在正确的位置 or even if it was in the right area
Rick刚进入MPA大约6周，欢迎大家 Rick is relatively new to MPA about 6 weeks so welcome
有过经验 have had prior experience
嗯，与市场史密斯主管 um with market smith charge
当我分析符合条件的股票时 when I'm analyzing stocks that qualify
在Minorveni趋势内 within the Minorveni trend
我在看股票和流通股 I'm looking at the shares and float
作为市场的一个百分比保持 as a percentage of the market kept
我最近在一些公司取得了很好的成功 I've had good success with companies recently
在你的关注清单上 on your focus list
比例低于3%甚至更高 that have a percentage of under 3% and even better
我想大概是1% around 1% I'm thinking
这是一个很好的衡量供给的方法 this is a good measurement of supply
你有什么想法? what are your thoughts
我不知道那是什么意思 I don't know what that means
什么1% 1% of what
浮动 the float
是市值的百分比吗 is a percentage of market cap
市值的1% 1% of market cap
我想是流通股 the shares in the float so I guess
如果有1亿股 if there's 100 million shares
花车里只有一百万 there's only one million in the float
是的 yeah
这就是 that's what
你能给我看看吗 can you show can you show me those
我很好奇 I'm curious to see that
所以这不是 so that's not
那不是我想要的 that's nothing that I would
你知道我从来没考虑过这个因素 you know that's not a factor that I ever look at
或者考虑到 or taken consideration of
浮点数的百分比 the percentage of the float
作为总市值的一个百分比，我没有 the float as a percentage of total market cap I'm not
那不是我要看的东西 that's not something that I'm looking at
我喜欢低浮动，我的意思是低供应量 I like to see a low float I mean a low amount of supply
越低越好 the lower the better
在我看来一切都是平等的 of all things being equal as far as I'm concerned
是的，我想这也说明了你 yeah I think that also goes to show you
举个例子 but get an example
举个占市值1%的例子 give me an example of one that's 1% of market cap
他做到了 well he did
他展示了一些3%的人 he's showing some of the 3 percenters and bix aehr
一个“kro a kro
是的 yeah
我不知道我能不能在这张图上画出来 I don't know if I could come up on the chart here
但我想它在左边 but it's over to the left I think
所以我们得到 so we got
我想我得走了 I think I gotta go to
稍等一下 hold on one second
我们看这里 let's see here so
好的，就在这里 okay right here
大便花车 the shit float
流通股 shares outstanding
是的，所以这低于1% yeah so that would be under 1% there
你说的 you're saying
市值或 the market cap or
我不知道你是怎么想的 I don't know how you relate
浮市值比 float to market cap
我不确定 I'm not sure
我会把流通股与流通股联系起来 I would relate float to shares outstanding
但我不知道怎么做 but I'm not sure how
我从未想过将浮动与市值联系起来 I never thought of relating float to market cap
所以我不知道 so I don't know
我从来没考虑过这个问题 that's not something I've ever considered
我必须告诉你 I have to tell you
你能做到很少人能做到的事 you you you achieve something that very few achieve
你你 you you
你让我看到了我从未想过的东西 you showed me something that I never even considered
用一种新的方式来看待这个问题 and something a new way maybe to look at this
我不知道 I don't know I
我从来没这么想过 I've never even thought of it that way
跟你说实话 to be honest with you
却偷了数百万美元 and yet stole a multi millioner
好吧 okay
上面说蕾妮在问 that said Renee is asking
她认为她发现了《最大的虚张声势》这本书 she thinks she spotted the book The Biggest Bluff by
玛丽亚Kanakova Maria Kanakova
在你的书架上 on your bookshelf during the weekend
交易大师津贴 master trader perk
是啊，是啊，那是本好书 yeah yeah that's a good book
说到教练和纪律 speaking of coaches and discipline
我喜欢那本书 I like that book
很想听听你对她旅行的看法 curious to hear your thoughts of her journey
如果你愿意的话 if you're inclined
她和埃里克去找了最好的教练 she went to the best possible coach with Eric
关掉网站，专注于她的目标 site down and focused on her goals
让我想起了你和你的教练 reminds me of coaching with you and Mr
她说硕士交易项目 And she says the master traded program
她在医院的第三年 her 3rd year attending
这比前两年还要好，谢谢 this was even better than the last 2 years so thank you
有几件事 so so a couple things
我和埃里克·赛德尔一起玩 one I play with Eric Cydel
埃里克·赛德尔就是个机器 a number of times and Eric Cydel is a machine
我试着让埃里克·赛德尔来指导我 I actually tried to get Eric Cydel that coached me
但他没有 and he wouldn't
我有TJ Cludia I had TJ Cludia
教我参加锦标赛 coached me for tournament play
许多年前 many years ago
我从TJ身上学到了很多 I Learned a lot from TJ
但是埃里克，我和他一起打球，他真的很了不起 but Eric I play with him and he is just amazingly
我要谈谈纪律 going to talk about discipline
我这辈子还没见过这么守纪律的人 I've never seen somebody so discipline in my life
就打扑克而言 as far as playing poker
我是Eric Cydelles的超级粉丝 so I I'm a big fan Eric Cydelles
这是一本伟大的书 the book is a great book
我没有读完整本书 I did not read the whole book
我试着我试着钻研了一会儿 I tried to I dug into it for a little while
我读了一些 and I read some of it
但我没有机会 but I didn't get a chance to
读完整本书 actually read the whole book
是的 yeah
伊登正在询问如何避免交易对手风险 Eden is asking how to avoid counter party risk
与经纪人合作 working with brokers
他刚刚经历了 he just experienced
被国际FTX缠住了 got caught up with some of the FTX international
他的账户丢了或者破产了 exposure where his accounts got lost or but bankrupt
马克，你更擅长 Mark you're better at
你知道它是加密货币之类的东西 you know it's crypto and things like that
更深奥的 more esoteric
我是一个直接投资股权的人，我没有 risks I'm a straight equity's guy and I don't
冒这种险还是 take that kind of risk or
有什么建议吗? what any suggestions
我们说的是 are we talking about
是的，我的意思是我不给 yeah I mean I don't give
你知道我们不给经纪人 you know we don't give brokers
推荐信之类的 recommendations and anything
至于加密货币，我会保持接触 and as far as crypto stuff I would keep exposure
对经纪人的态度一般都很淡 extremely light at brokers in general and
而且很可能 and probably
在这一点上，你要做你自己的监护权 at this point be doing your own self custody
这是其中一个 that's one of the
你知道加密市场的问题是 you know the problem with the crypto markets is
它们极不受监管 they're wildly unregulated
你知道 you know
如果这些经纪人做了一半的事 if half the stuff that these brokers were doing
在美国受监管的经纪人中 in regulated brokers here in the US
他们把这些人扔进监狱 they throw these guys in jail
这就是他们在FTX中要做的吗 which is what they're going to do in the FTX
在数学之后，我认为它实际上是 after math in my opinion it's actually
很遗憾，但是 it's a shame unfortunately but
不，我不会把大量现金留在 no I would not be leaving large amounts of cash at
我尽量把大量的现金放在任何破处 I try to leave large amounts of cash at any broken
我不经常吸毒 I'm not using regularly
但肯定是在加密货币领域 but certainly at a crypto one
是的 yeah
我认为马克一针见血 I think Mark hit the nail on the head
有一个注册的 having a registered
经纪人，当然在美国也是 broker and certainly in the United States is
最安全 the most safe
有 there are
这里有完全注册和监管的地方 places here that are fully registered and regulated
是的，你们是大男孩 yeah you are the big boys yeah
很遗憾听到这个消息，伊登 sorry to hear that news Eden
我欺骗了马克 I trick asking Mark on
AEH的报名时间是11月10日 the entry for AEH are on November 10th
在11月9日的低点止损 with a stop at the low of November 9th
11月10日是星期四 November 10th was Thursday there in the
我没有进入这个我们没有买这个，但是 low which I did not enter this we didn't buy this but
是的，但是我们做到了 yep but we did
我们确实把它列入重点关注名单 we did put it on focus list
显然他做到了 he apparently did
他在问你对那个词条的想法 he's asking your thoughts on that entry with that stuff
我觉得这个入口很完美 I think the entry is perfect
虽然 though
就像我说的，如果你 just it's kind of volatile you know like I said if you
我之前说过，如果你要测量这个 I said before if you were to measure this
就在这里 you know right here
峰值和波谷在这里是25% peak the trough right here is 25% in this little
你知道哪个看起来像手柄阶段还是回拉阶段 you know which looks like a handle phase or a pullback
所以 so
是的，我是说这是 yeah I mean this is
你得把这当成一个基地 you got to look at this as a base
你知道它有多深，但它只是 you know it's so deep but it's only
你知道 you know
2周半 2 and 1/2 weeks
所以我一般不会交易如此波动的东西 so I don't generally trade something this volatile
我说了，我知道 like I said I know
一些聪明人从根本上喜欢这家公司 some smart people that like this company fundamentally
但 but
你知道我并没有因为听这些而变得富有 you know I did not become wealthy from listening to
其他人或交易 other people or trading
波动图表，在早期的回合 volatile charts that are in early turns
所以我不去了，不过我觉得还好 so I I pass but I think it's fine
你知道，如果你愿意处理挥发性的 you know if you're willing to deal with the volatile um
这是一个很好的开头 and it's it's a good entry
这当然有点 it's certainly a little
一点V C P a little V C P
你知道你有一个一天+的支点 form you know you got a one day plus pivot
我已经指出这是 and I already point this out that that was
你知道你会不会买这个 you know if you're gonna buy this
这是在10号的时候 this is the by point the by it that was on the 10th
那本书的名字是玛丽亚的《最大的虚张声势》 the name of that book was The Biggest Bluff by Maria
Kanakova Kanakova
今天就到这里 so with that we are at our time for today
伙计们我们确实回答了很多问题 guys we did get through a lot of questions
我确实看到了很多股票符号 I do see a lot of ticker symbols
所以一定要利用 so do make sure you utilize the
Dropbox平台上的标志 symbol Dropbox feature on the platform
这就是你能得到的 that is where you can get
马克面前的股票代码 ticker symbols in front of Mark
观察和评价 to look at and evaluate
也作为我们的提醒会有 also as our reminder will have
这一幕的回放马上就开始了 the replay of this up momentarily
不过下周一 next Monday though
我们不会有正常的问答环节 we will not have our normal question an answer session
因为这是我们的 as that is our
交易硕士课程结束的第5天 concluding day 5 of the Master Traded Program
所以我们会有 so we will have our
在周二的问答环节 question in the answer session on Tuesday
我们下周会提醒大家 we'll provide the reminder of that of course next week
话虽如此 and with that said
我要谢谢你们，马克和马克 I'll thank you Mark and Mark
感谢所有人的祝福 and thank you for all who are wishing
今晚我的老鹰 my Eagles well tonight
第9个赛季没有 to go 9 and no on the season
好吧 okay
你们，如果我如果我有时间我们不太 you guys and if I if I have the time and we're not too
忙着股票暴涨之类的事情 busy with stocks breaking out and things like that
如果再安静一点，我们就再试一次 if it were more quieter we'll try to do another
本周的Q amp A Q amp A this week
我不能保证，但我们会试着做点什么 I can't promise it but we'll try to do something
可能是星期四或星期五 maybe Thursday or Friday
好吧，就这么说 all right with that said
我们会做的 we'll get at it
请继续关注直播 stay tuned to the live stream
用于实时提醒和工作更新 for real time alerts and updates from work
这周剩下的时间也是如此 throughout the rest of the week as well
好了，再见，伙计们 okay see you good guys
谢谢大家 thanks guys