好大家好 okay hello everyone
欢迎来到这个周末的每周学习环节 welcome to this weekend's weekly study session
来看看普通市场 coming to take a look at the general market
还有一些个股 and also some individual stocks
在本周的同一段视频中 in the same video this week
首先看一下风险模型 start off by taking a look at the risk model
11月22日的手机信号 cell signal on November 22
但我们在3月21日接到警报 but we went on by alert on March 21
你可以看到整个市场都在变化 you can see the general market has moved
成交量也正向上向下 the positive up down volume also
搬到积极 move to positive
新高新低 new highs new lows
还没有扩展到我们可以的地步吗 is still not expanded to the point where we can
把它从负值调高，但股票参与 move it up from negative but stock participation
上周从负面转为中性 last week to go from negative to neutral
随着 along with the
其中股票交易环境模型也发生了变化 stock trading environment model which also moved
To neutral的意思是 to neutral which simply means that
你知道你可以站位 you know you can take positions
这是很明显的 that's pretty obvious
我们已经采取了很多立场 we've been taking lots of positions
突出了很多突破 highlighting a lot of breakouts
到目前为止，总的来说效果还不错 so far working out relatively well on balance
我想下周再看一遍 I'd like to get through this next week see how
就股市而言，情况还算乐观 things hold up as far as stocks are concerned
在任何类型的市场 during any type of market
如果有的话就撤 pull back if we should get one
接下来的一周 in the next week
从这里开始 and then from there
如果我们能坚持下去，股票仍然表现良好 if we could hold up and stock still perform well
我们可能会去果岭 we'd probably go to the green
阅读这里的stem模型 reading here on the stem model
但我告诉你，你应该生气 but I'll tell you you should be
这里有很多名字 you know in a bunch of names at this point
但肯定不会全买下来 but certainly not buying them all but
但至少 but at least
如果你愿意的话，在这水里放两个脚趾 a good couple toes in the water here if you will
趋势模型仍然是长期趋势 trend model is still long term trend
如果你想的话，它仍然是中性的 if you will it's still on the neutral
它动了吗? has it moved yet
回到完全看涨的状态 into getting back to fully bullish
但我觉得你应该像我之前说的那样 but I think you should like I said before
前几周又回到了50% in previous weeks moving back to 50%
在4 - 1的情况下 in your four one case
我和斯坦·韦恩斯坦谈过了 I did talk to stan weinstein
你们认识谁 who of course you guys know
我刚和阶段分析的发明者谈过了吗 is the inventor of stage analysis I just talked to him
事实上，今天 today as a matter of fact
我们经常通话 we speak on a regular basis and
站着一个很棒的男人 stands a wonderful guy
他总是乐于分享 he's always willing to share
他在研究中提出了自己的观点 his opinion in his research
他说他 and he said that he
感觉我们的市场还是空荡荡的 feels that we're still in a bare market
他认为我们不一定 he doesn't think that we necessarily
可能做了低 may have made the low
我还在犹豫 I'm still I'm on the fence
我尽量不涉及语义 and I'm trying not to get into semantics
斯坦也说了同样的话 stan was saying the same thing
他说让我们忘记语义 he says let's forget about semantics
这里有一些长 there's some longs here
你可以玩 that you can play
我们可能至少剪短了 we probably made at least a shorter
中期低 intermediate term low
这是一个可交易的反弹，但不确定 and this is a tradable rally but not sure
如果这里没有危险的话 if the coast is clear here
我也有同样的感觉，所以我要接受它 I feel the same way so I'm just going to take it
日复一日在这里 day by day here
我们一整天都有跟踪 we did get a follow through day
这是第一步 and again that's the first step if you will
非股票 of a non stock
如果你愿意，可以开绿灯 green light if you will
在一般市场上 in the general market
我们希望看到持续的一天 we like to see a follow through day
所以我们一整天都在跟踪 so we got a follow through day
当然还有纳扎克 and then of course in the nazak
和近ecstoc交换 and the near ecstoc exchange
正如他们上周指出的那样 as they pointed out last week
纳扎克确实打得很低 the nazak did make a marginal low
所以在技术上 so technically
纽约证券交易所全天都有这份文件 the New York stock exchange had that file through day
这是足够的 and that's enough
我们认为我们回到了上升趋势 for us to deem us back into an up trend
至于 as far as
ibd型策略，当然也可以是William o'neill型策略 an ibd type strategy or of course a william o'neill
全天跟进策略 a follow through day strategy
这只是一个非常非常小的组成部分 that's only one very very small component
我对整个市场的评估 of me assessing the general market
它是课程的一个组成部分，但不是专业 it is a component of it but it's not a major
足够的真正 enough to really
让我看多目标，我必须看到股票 get me bullish on the mark and I have to see the stocks
到目前为止，我们看到的是股票和其他 and so far we are seeing the stocks and another
看看SMP 500 looking at the smp 500
我指出了这点 and I pointed this out
我在推特上发了这个 I tweeted this actually
最近在我们自己的帖子上指出 recently and pointed out on our own thread
在这一周 throughout the week
我们连续进行了四次更新，其中1%的数据更高 we had four updates in a row of 1% are greater
连续四天 consecutive four days
这种情况在过去只发生过几次 and this has only happened a few times in the last
我不知道大概85岁左右吧 I don't know 85 years or so
所以这是脱离低谷的一个很好的推力 so that's a pretty good little thrust off the lows
我们希望看到这一点 we like to see that
除此之外 in addition to that
我们让麦卡伦振荡器达到水平 we got the macallan oscillator to get to levels
这表明了我们所说的看涨行情 that indicates what we would call a bullish upside
呼吸推力 breath thrust
这总是好的 and that's always good to see
走出低谷 coming off the lows
我们想看看高级的 we'd like to see the advanced a
克莱恩线显示出从低点的推力 klein line show a thrust off the lows
当我刚开始做定量分析工作的时候 when I did a lot of quant work when I first started
在交易方面，我是一名量化分析师，后来也是如此 trading I was all quant and then I would later on
开始买股票 start buying the stocks
我一度认为市场处于上升趋势 once I thought the market was in a up trend
我寻找那些表现良好的团队 and I looked for the groups that were acting well
然后买股票 and then end up buying the stocks
不过我总是迟到 I was always late though
所以我把整个过程颠倒过来 so I reverse the whole thing
现在我把股票作为主要指标 and now I look to the stocks as my main indicator
这些都只是确认 and these are really just sort of confirming
或者给我提个醒 or giving me sort of the heads up
至于我们能否寻找 as to whether we can be looking for
你知道一个 you know a
市场触底 bottom in the market
就索引而言 as far as the indexes are concerned
但就股票而言 but as far as the stocks are concerned
你知道我要进去买 you know I'm gonna go in there and I'm gonna buy
股票，即使他们在设置，我们在电话里 stocks even if they're setting up and we're on a cell
到处都是股票 sigdle there was loads of stocks setting up
肯定会买一些东西 by certainly would be buying something
如果我能得到一些支持，我也会加入 and if I get some traction I'd add to that
也 also
回到定量分析工作 coming back to though looking at the quant work or the
宏观的工作 the macro work if you will
纳斯达克指数(nasdaq)也接近“喘不过气来” the nasdaq also came very close to a breath rough
实际上我们有两个 we actually had two of these
你通常不会看到大规模的集会 and again you don't normally see a big rally take place
指数没有走出熊市 index is coming off of a bear market without
这种类型的呼吸推进 these type of breath thrust
通常你每次都能得到这个量 usually you get these amount every low
所以我很喜欢看这个 so I do like to see this
有两次我差点就成功了 this came so close on two occasions
我认为你是知道的 that I would have to deem that you know
我们可以说这是开始了 we would say that this is on
在推力上也一样 on a thrust as well
我们在纳扎克身上都找到了 so we got it both on the nazdack
还有还有nizi and and the nizi
的nazdak the nazdak
我想可能会持续到200天 I think could possibly run up to this 200 day
甚至可能在这里聚集更多 and maybe even rally a bit more here
我知道有很多交易员 I know there's a lot of traders
我和几个交易员谈过 I talk to several traders
我自己的朋友 friends of my own
我的朋友说 friends of mine that
我觉得其他市场需要撤出这里 feel like the other market needs to pull back here
但 but
我不确定我们是否能轻易收回 I'm not so sure we're going to pull back that easily
但我确实看到了这里的50天 but I do see the 50 day in a down trin here
如果我们看一下 if we take a look at
很抱歉 sorry about that
如果我们看一下苏格兰民族党 if we take a look at the snp
也许我们跑到这里 maybe we run up here
当我们试图接近那些过去的快感时 when we take a shot at getting close to those old highs
在这个时候把这些熊放进去 and really run these bears in at this point
但是我们离下降的50天越远 but the more that we go away from this declining 50 day
在50天平缓下来，开始出现之前 before the 50 day can flatten out and start turning up
当我们落水后逃离那里的时候 as we run away from there when we get overboard
通常这将导致回调 usually that would lead to a pullback
如果这真的开始延伸 and if this really starts to get extended
你可能会有一个相当剧烈的回调 you'd probably have a pretty sharp pullback
鉴于这50天仍处于低迷期 seeing as the 50 days still in a downturn
即使我们在上面 even though we're above it
你得看看这50天的趋势 you gotta look at the trend of the 50 day
这是一个下降的趋势 and it's in a down trend here
所以我们现在真的想用它来开始制作 so we really want to get that to start the flat now
都出现在纳斯达克 turn up on both the nasdaq
以及SLP 500的各项指标 and the slp 500 the various indexes
但这并不意味着我们不能在这里集会 but that doesn't mean we can't rally here
所以我在观察我们是否会在这里集结更多 so I'm watching if we do rally much more here
你可能想 you probably wanna
对短线交易员来说肯定是这样 certainly for short term traders
在反弹的时候卖出 sell into that sell into that rally
如果我们能从这里拉回来，那才是健康的 if we get a pull back from here that's actually healthy
我希望现在就能看到反弹 I would like to see a pull back around now
看股票的走势很重要 and it's really important to see how the stocks
在回调期间表演 perform during that pullback
如果你知道我们不会被拦下，快撞 if you know we're not getting stops hit
我们的大部分股票都很坚挺 most of our stocks are holding up
太好了，这正是我们想看到的 great then that's exactly what we want to see
这预示着一个触底的标志 and indicative of a marker that's bottoming
现在我们有了空头多于多头的情绪 now we got the sentiment where bears outnumbered bulls
如果你看这里 if you take a look here
这是我们得到的比 here's that ratio where we got better than
你知道是一对一 you know one to one
这正是我们想看到的形成底部的东西 that's precisely what we want to see to form a bottom
然后我们得到了推力 and then we got that thrust
所以基本上是 so there's basically
有三个元素 there's three elements
到熊市触底 to putting in a bottom off of a bear market
我不 and I'm not
当然，如果这里有绝对的低 sure if we necessarily have the absolute low in here
然而，其中一个是熊市情绪 yet but one is bear sentiment
另一种是当你打开低点的时候 the other is when you turn up off the lows
你看到的是某种推力 some type of thrust where you see
这种扩张和呼吸真的爆炸了 that expansion and breath really explodes
当然还有股票 and of course stocks
现在这三个我们都有了 and right now we've got all three of those
我们也有很多 and we also have a lot of
世界动荡不安 turmoil going around in the world
油价飙升，通货膨胀率正在上升 oil prices soaring inflation rates turning up now
战争 war
在乌克兰，我们有一道他们称之为“担忧墙”的墙 in Ukraine so we've got a wall of worry as they call it
忧虑之墙 the wall of worry
爬上忧虑的墙 to climb a wall of worry
我们确实具备开拓市场的条件 we really do have the makings for a market
这可能会继续攀升 that could keep climbing here
看着 looking at
一些宏观或看利率环境 some macro or looking at the interest rate environment
我之前说过 as I stated before
你知道有很多人担心 you know there's a lot of people worried that the
你知道，现在房价在上涨 you know rates are increasing now
这是真实的 and that's true
但历史上 but historically
我们需要看到联邦基金出现 we need to see the fed funds come up
之前有很多次 a number of times before
它会影响经济或市场 it affects the economy or the market
特别是经济衰退将滞后 particularly the economy the recessions will lag
从利率开始有一个滞后时间 there's a lag time from when rates first
开始出现 start turning up
当然，市场预期会出现衰退 and then of course the market anticipates a recession
或者有时它与经济衰退同时发生 or sometimes it's coincident with a recession
你进入了一个空荡的市场 and you go into a bare market
这来自于零利率 so coming from zero interest rates
我们可能还有一段路要走 we may have a ways to go
在它成为真正的问题之前，美联储加息 with fed hikes before it becomes a real problem
看看ecri每周领先指数 looking at the ecri weekly leading index
我上周讲过这个 I talked about this last week
当它下降到这里 as it turns down here
如果它下降到- 5层 if it gets down to the minus five level
这是对船头的警告 that sort of a warning across the bow
负10肯定是 minus 10 would definitely be
这是经济衰退的重大警告 a big warning for a recession
所以我们会密切关注 so we'll keep an eye on that
利率以两年期为准 rates as far as the two years concern
我一直在这里翱翔 I've been still soaring here
你可以看到这里真的在直上 you can see really just turning straight up here
我也不希望这样 and I don't expect this to
让你知道下一个可能 let up probably you know over the next
三到六个月后，我们会看到利率上升 three to six months we're gonna see rates go higher
尤其是10年 particularly on probably the 10 year
现在是248个 we're looking at 248 now
看到这一点也不奇怪 wouldn't be surprised to see this up
3%左右 around the 3% level
如果美联储继续提高利率 if the fed keeps raising rates which is
这一点是相当确定的 fairly certain at this point
但我们会看到经济数据 but we'll see as as you know economic numbers
接下来的几个月再来 come in over the coming months
两者之间现在发生的是 the occur between the two now is
你知道，它肯定非常接近于倒置 you know is definitely very close to inverting
这是 and that's
这绝对是个问题 that's definitely an issue
反向收益率曲线 an inverted yield curve
所以你也要注意这一点 so you have to keep an eye on that too
但就像我之前指出的 but again like I point out before
这不是什么 this is not something that
会像这个计时指示器一样吗 is going to be like this timing indicator where the
收益率曲线反转，这是顶部 yield curve inverts and that's the top
它可以转化 it could invert
这可能需要一段时间 and it could take a while
在市场真正见顶之前 before the market actually tops
你可以看看后面，把它倒过来 you can see back here and invert it
回到哦，6,7 back in oh six oh seven
直到晚上八点 and then it wasn't until late oh eight
我们陷入了经济衰退 we rolled over and we went into this recessionary
又是熊市 bear market so again
鲍威尔说他认为我们可以 the powell's been saying that he thinks we can
实现软着陆 achieve a soft landing
我也 I also
感觉就像1998年的情景，我们 feel like this might be in 1998 scenario where we
没错，我们面临的是一个相当残酷的熊市 correct we have a bear market that's pretty brutal
在表面下 beneath the surface
的平均水平 the averages
有一种花园品种纠正吗 have a sort of a garden variety correction
我们能够 and we're able to
在经济不崩溃的情况下走出困境 come out of this without the economy ripping apart
如果你看这三个月 if you take a look at the three month
10年期的短期国债 t bill to the 10 year
旧的曲线图要好得多 the old curve picture is a lot better
或者离反转远得多 or a lot further away from inversion
即使你倒过来，你也能看到这下面 and even when you do invert you can see down here
这需要 it takes
距离SMP达到峰值还有几个月 there's a number of months before the smp peaks
从任何地方 from anywhere
从2000年的一到十四个月 between one and fourteen months going back to 2000 here
现在我们来看看这个图表 now here's a chart to take a look at as far as
对这些加息的预期 an expectation to what these hikes
这些加息可能会影响市场 these rate hikes might do the market
如果你处在一个没有加息的非周期 if you have a non cycle where there's no rate hikes
这是绿线 that's the green line
你知道，这是你的市场 this is sort of your market you know
未来在历史上 going forward historically
但当你看到快速加息周期时 but when you look at a fast rate hike cycle
相对于较慢的紧缩周期，这将是 versus a slower tightening cycle which would be the
这里的蓝线 the blue line here
你在看 you're looking at
市场表现不太好 the market not doing very well
当利率上升非常快的时候 when the rates are coming up very quickly
所以如果他们开始加速 so if they start accelerating the rate of
运动 movement on the
也许会开始提高利率 fed funds and start jacking them up maybe
你知道从25个基点到50个基点 you know instead of 25 base points go to 50
并提前开始工作 and start jacking up ahead of schedule
这可能会对市场产生抑制作用 that may have a dampening effect on the market
正如你在这里看到的 as you can see here
市场表现不太好 the market doesn't perform very well
相对于其他类型的场景 versus the other types of scenarios
总结，总的来说，我们今天失败了 summary you know in summary we got a fall through day
我们没有看到任何有意义的分布 we haven't seen any meaningful distribution
我们已经改进了模型 we've got the models improving
飞行员至今工作不平衡 pilot by so far working unbalanced
你知道有一些 you know notwithstanding a few
有几只股票没有发挥作用 a few stocks that haven't work
现在我们得找些安排 now we got to look for setups
我们要看看事情如何 and we got to see how things
在回调期间保持 hold up during a pullback
如果我们得到分布 if we get the distribution
如果股票设置开始崩溃 if the stock setup start falling apart
如果有人违反了个人的名字 if we're getting violations on the individual names
枢轴故障或最坏的基座故障 pivot failures or worst base failures
所以现在的问题是获得反馈 so now it's a matter of just getting feedback
你知道你已经下水了 you know you put your toe in the water
然后把两只脚趾放到水里 and you put a couple toes in the water
如果你觉得暖和 if it's warm you
你知道你坚持 you know you keep
直到你下水为止 going until you get in the water
你在水里游泳，对吧 and you're swimming in the water right
所以现在 so now
我们在水里等着 we're waiting in the water here
等着看我们是不是真的想进攻 waiting to see if we really want to get aggressive
与接触 with with exposure
你们中的一些人可能已经很有攻击性了 some of you might already be aggressive
我说过，如果你还记得这个j I did point out if you remember this this j
实际上是Jackson financial jxn which is actually Jackson financial jxn
我指出了这个进化者 I pointed out how this breakout that we had
从这里出来 coming out of this
你知道右边有点压缩 you know a little bit compressed right side
你可以在这里看到 you can see right here
这是一个小的枢轴 it is a little pivot here
但有时会有点压缩 but it is a little bit compressing sometimes
当你走出低谷 when you come off the lows
我想给你们看一些特别的东西 and I want to show you something in particular here
当你走出低谷，就像你在这里看到的 when you come off the lows as you can see right here
你看我们是怎么得到这个的 you see how we've got this
这条实线是市场 this solid line right here that's the market
这是sp 500 that's the sp 500
当我们走出低谷的时候 so as we're coming off the lows
这支股票的价格正在上涨 this stock is breaking out of a base
这显示了很好的领导特质 showing pretty nice leadership characteristics here
但当我们下来的时候，我想给你看 but when we come down here I want to show you
迪克体育好 dick sporting good
这是我交易的一只股票 this was a stock that I traded
放大一点给你们看 zoom in a little bit for you
所以我和迪克交换了体育用品 so I traded dick sporting goods and
你们知道这是这是很久以前的事了 you know this was this is a while back of course
完成了类似的ipo came off of a similar type ipo setup
看看我们上市时的情况 see how this we have when ipo
你有了第一个可行的基地 you got your first viable base
这里也一样 same thing here
你上市了，现在又这么大了 you got this ipo and now you get this big
这是可行的基地，它延伸到右边 viable base here and it comes up this right side
实际上他们在这里提出了指导 and actually they raised guidance right here
这是一个很大的差距 that was this big gap
你在低价倾销 you undercut the low
你把那个抖掉了 you got that shake out
就像我们在这里摆脱低谷一样 similar to how we shook out the low right here and
但是接下来发生的是 but then what happened is
看看这里的市场 take a look at the market here
看到, see that
这条线，实线是smp5猎人 this line right here the solid line is the smp5 hunter
看，我们又到了一个低谷 look we went to another low
你看，现在我们又到了一个低点 you see so now as we went to another low
你看，股市的混蛋们竟然创造了一个更高的低点 you see the stock dicks actually made a higher low
形成了右边 and was forming this right side
当我们走出低谷，我们 and then as we came off the lows and we
在SMP中拉回 pulled back in the smp
你在回调的时候旋转得很紧 you got that nice tight pivot during the pullback
然后繁荣 and then boom
就在它开始出现的时候，你爆发了 you come breaking out just as it starts turning up
从低点回落 off that pullback low
这绝对是教科书式的 so this is textbook absolutely textbook
这意味着市场的必要性 now this would mean the market necessary
不得不后退 has to pull back and
非得变成这样吗 has to turn out this way
但有一个很好的机会，这样的股票 but there is a good chance that a stock like this
试图越狱，或者 tries to break out and either
市场扩张一段时间后就会转向这里 the market turns in here after it gets a bit extended
可能会拉低股价 and maybe it pulls the stock back
它需要一点时间来扩建 and it needs a little time to build out
,右边 that right side
因为它被压缩了 because it's a bit compressed
和 and
然后就爆发了，你甚至 and then from there it breaks out and you don't even
让你停止 get your stop
你可以从这里一点一点地呆在里面 and you're able to stay in it from this by point
或者它可能会把你弄晕它可能会把你弄晕 or it may knock you out it may knock you out
也许它需要设置得更好一点 and maybe it has to set up a bit better
然后我们会回到它 and then we'll go back to it if it
是像这样的情况，这么说吧，你懂的 was a situation like this and let's just say you know
也许你可以把它放在这里的某个地方 maybe you board it up here somewhere
你被打晕了 and you got knocked out
这里还有鸡巴 and here with dicks
现在收紧了 now it tightens up
真的很不错 really nice
市场是否走出低点并爆发 is the market turns off the lows and breaks out
这是非常完美的教科书 and this is just you know just textbook perfect
我今天就买了 I actually bought it right on this day
这是即将到来的 that was coming on
有一点差距 it was a little bit of a gap
但它并没有扩展 but it wasn't extended
我刚买下来，它就出来了 and I just bought it and it came right out
我马上就赚了 and I was at a profit right away
这是一个很好的切入点 it was a really nice entry point
我只是想在这里指出这一点 so I just wanted to point that out here
给你们一点 to give you a little bit of
颜色让你知道该找什么 colorized to you know what to look for
在这些爆发中 in some of these breakouts
因为 because
你知道，当你第一次从低谷中走出来的时候，你可能不会这样 you know it may not be when you first come off the lows
等你回来补上 when you back and fill
在底部附近会有一些波动 you get some volatility around those that bottom
有时你会在股票上看到一些波动 sometimes you get you get some volatility in the stocks
它开始抽打它们 it starts whipping them
鞭打他们 whipping them around
在这些爆发点周围 around those breakout points
我给你看些东西 let me show you a few things here
我们讲过jx和杜松 so we talked about that one jx and juniper
其中一些表现得非常教科书 some of these are acting really textbook
你知道你从这种低级的欺骗中走出来的 you know you come off of this low cheat here
只是暂停一天而已 which is just a one day pause
你从这里出来，形成这个小的 boom you come out here and now you form this little
这里只是一个BCP quick pivot here basically just a bcp
收紧 tightened up
这是第二个入口点 and now this would be your 2nd entry point
如果你没有从这个入口进入 if you had not entered on this entry point here
那个相信第十七届的 which was on and believed the 17th right
我们是17号入学的，没错 we entered on the 17th yep
然后 and then
你可以在25号周五进入这里 you could have entered here on Friday on the 25
或者增加你的职位，我们就是这么做的 or added to your position and that's what we did
你知道我们把所有东西都拿走了 you know we took the whole thing here and then
我们不需要在这里加，因为 we didn't have to add here because we
已经满员了 already took a full position
但如果你要 but if you were going to
如果你还没买股票的话 if you had not already bought the stock
你本可以在这里买的 you could have been buying it right here
尽管它更高 even though it's higher
它建立得很好，实际上也证实了 it's setting up very nicely and actually confirming
这是一个很好的突破，看看这里 so this is a real nice breakout plus take a look here
就像这里的痘痘 you get these breakouts like right here
第二天就爆发了 it broke out the next day
你通过行动拿到了文件 you got that file through action
看看体积 and look at the volume
一天的文件量很大 big volume on the file through day
然后在你平静下来之后的爆发日 and then here on that breakout day after you quiet down
看看它的体积 look at the volume
是低于平均水平 comes below average
好了，你安静下来，现在你要冲出来 right you quiet down and now as you break out
成交量回升至平均水平以上 boom volume comes back in above average
这是完美的表现 this is acting perfect
这正是你想看到的 this is exactly what you want to see
现在我们想看到10个以上的自然反应 and now we want to see natural reactions 10 up
小动作，这就是你想看到的 small action and this is what you want to see
在大多数股票中 in the majority of stocks
大多数股票认为 the majority of stocks that
甚至已经爆发了像ctic这样的事情哪 have been breaking out even something like ctic which
这个价格低吗? is this low price
你知道我一般不卖低价的 you know I don't normally go in low price
但这是一场完美的权力游戏 but this is a perfect power play
在这里 that came up here
就像火箭一样，现在就改正 like a rocket and only correct it for now
我买这只股票的原因之一是 one of the reasons why I went in this stock is
在这里进行修正 you take this correction here
看看这个 take a look at this
这只是关于什么 it's only about what
每股4美元买16%的股票可能是一场权力游戏 16% for a $4 stock could be in a power play
只需要离开 and only come off
比标准的20%减少了15%到16% fifteen sixteen percent less than the standard 20%
我要找的最大值是多少 which would be my max that I would look for
真厉害，真厉害 that's impressive that's very impressive
因为4美元的股票 because a $4 stock
能下降20%很多吗 can go down 20% a lot
这比50美元的股票容易多了 easier than if this was a $50 stock
它们更不稳定，当然质量也更低 they're more volatile and lower quality of course
但这真是太完美了 but this really just set up absolutely perfect
楔回好 wedge back nicely
我应该说，是渐行渐远 drifting back I should say
然后来到这里 and then turned up here
你没有得到任何类型的小手柄或枢轴 you did not get any type of little handle or pivot
这就是我投身其中的原因 and that's why I went into it
以防它会从低处撕下来 just in case it was just gonna rip off the lows
我总是试图寻找那些低级的骗子 I always try to look for those low cheats
如果我能做到的话 in the power plays and if I can get it there
走出低谷 coming off the lows
然后我将它向上移动，向上 then I will so this moved right up and is up
两天16% 16% in two days
我确实剪掉了一半，或者至少推荐它 I did take off half or at least recommend it
给你们剪掉一半 take off half for you guys
现在你可以把它卷起来了 to cush in it and now you can free roll it of course
asio和oreilly I asio and oreilly I basically
把它看成一个位置 look at it as one position
这是我认为你们知道的两个玩家 so these are the two players that I think you know
你应该在 you should be in
在这个特殊的群体中 in this particular group
你可以看到asio有50的移动平均线 you can see asio has that moving average that 50 did
它刚刚开始变平 it's just starting to flatten out
所以可能是短期的 so it could be maybe short term
你知道的，这太超前了 you know getting ahead of itself
然而 however
我在这里看到了主元，我想确认一下 I saw the pivot here and I wanted to make sure that
你知道我们拥有它 you know we owned it
所以我只是站在一半的立场上然后奥莱利 so just took a half position in that and then o'reilly
很抱歉 sorry about that
把那个拉上来，莱利 pull that up oh riley also
你知道的，刚从这个拉回来 you know just coming off of this pull back by
而且还是有点头顶的感觉 and still heading into a bit of overhead sit
好了，我们在这里做半姿势，半姿势 alright we'll take a half position here and a half
在asio position in asio
他们两个都不是完美的 neither one of them are exactly perfect
所以我们每个人都有一半的位置 so we'll take a half position in each
被视为正式职位 treated as a full position
我经常这样做 I will often do that
有时在一个群中j b h t in a group sometimes j b h t
就像我在首发时做的那样 which I did a starter half position
它把她拉开，开始出现 as it pulled back her and started turning up
这不是我的一贯作风 this is not characteristic of how I generally operate
我很少会 I very seldom will
你知道的，像这样的回调 you know buy a pullback like this
直到它也许 until it maybe
有反转，然后给我回调买入 has a reversal and then gives me a pullback buy
但这次我们回来了 but this time we came back
首先，它真的很烈 first of all it's really strong
怎样才能很强势的突破 how to very strong breakout
然后又飘回来了，很好很有序 and it just drifted back here so nicely so orderly
然后你得到了这个 and then you had that
那 that
这里最重要的一天通常是你会得到的 that biggest day here were often well you'll get that
这最后一天 that last day
然后向上交易，在高点收市 and then it will trade up and close right at the high
第二天你就能收回 and you'll get the pull back by the next day
所以你知道这有点 so you know this is a little bit of
必须要说经验吗 have to say experience if you will
我很有创意 that I was creative on it
但我所做的是 but what I did was
当它开始出现时 as it start turning up
如果你要沉到水底，就像这样 if you're going to bottom fish something like this
你想做什么，当然你知道 what you want to do and of course you know
这是打破 this is break
这是爆发，并处于上升趋势 this is breaking out and it's in an up trend
你知道这可不是什么海底捞 you know this isn't exactly bottom fishing
这将是海底捕鱼 it would be bottom fishing
在上升趋势中出现的回调 a pull back within an up trend
所以我要确保我做了区分 so that's I want to make sure I make that distinction
我不是底层的捕鱼者 I'm not bottom fishing stocks
至于 as far as
在下跌趋势中或股市受到重创 in downtrends or stocks are getting clobbered
这是一只上市速度非常快的股票 this is a stock that came out real fast
撤出有序 pulled back orderly
然后又回到了越狱现场 and pulled right back to the breakout
我要怎么玩 how I will play
如果我要引用底鱼的话 if I'm going to quote unquote bottom fish
当它从面包上出现时我就开始买吗 is I'll start buying it as it turns up from the loaves
然后我通常会在这个低点设个止损点 and then I'll set a stop usually at that low
或者略低于这个低点 or slightly below that low
然后我就会用一个非常紧凑的停顿 and I'll go in with just a super tight stop
因为当股价像这样下跌时 because when the stock comes down like this
然后你在半路回来 and you come back about halfway back
你从越狱的时候就知道了 you know from the breakout
然后你就回到了突破的顶端 and you come back to the top of the breakout level
剪得少一点 just under cut it
那才是它真正应该回到正轨的地方 that's where it really should just turn right back up
你应该买一件好衣服 and you should get a good clothes
如果它做不到 so if it can't do that
我马上就走 and I'm just gonna get right out
我就等着那一天到来 and I'll just wait for that to happen
而且也不会花我很多钱 and it won't cost me very much
也许花了我1%或2%的钱 maybe it cost me one or 2%
所以我损失很小 so I take a very small loss
其实并没有什么损失 and it's nothing really lost
这就是我的交易方式 so that's how I trade that
我该如何处理 how I handle that
现在我们终于结束了 and now it worked out we got that closed
现在我开始了几个百分比 and now I'm starting up you know a couple %
现在我在找后面的杆子 now I'm looking for the pole back by
我想在周一把这个送进去 I'm looking for this to go inside on Monday
也许有那么一天 and maybe it might be a day
也可能只有周一才会起飞 or it might be just on Monday it takes off
或者是 or maybe it's
再过一天，然后从那里回来 another day and then turn up from there
然后我可能会在这一点上加一个位置 and then I probably add to the position at that point
你仍然可以 and you could still
你甚至可能会退缩 you might even pull back
然后再加一个枢轴 and still put in a little pivot
做这个小帽子图案 make this little cap pattern
但现在这是我未来的目标 but right now that's what I'm looking for going forward
让我们看看foxa，另一个 let's see foxa another one
我只是想给你们看一些有创意的 I just want to show you some of the creative
我用过的条目 entries that I've used
这里的这个 so this one here
第3页18页 first entry on 3 18
我们先求它 so let's find that first
等一下 hold on a second
3 18 3 18
在这里 right here
就在这里，我在演奏那个小的回调 so right here I was playing that little pullback
通过这个非常有创意的小窍门 by coming off this very very creative little cheat
如果你记得我说过的话，你知道 and if you remember I said that you know
这可能 this will probably
你知道，可能会涨一点 you know maybe go up for a little bit
但它会供应给我们的 but it's gonna run into that supply
然后它会拉回来，可能会放进去 and then it's gonna pull back and probably put in
另一个主 another pivot
然后我想补充一下 and then I would look to add
那 well that
和我现在期待的情况一样 same scenario I'm looking for going forward from here
所以我现在做的是 so what I did was now on the
当然是在 of course on the
25号，也就是 on the 25th which is
就在这里，我们从另一个极点回来 right here we turned up from another pole back by
所以现在 so now it's it's
它的行为是正确的，它建立了那个支点 it's acting right it's building that pivot
这就是为什么我要增加它 that's why I'm adding to it
它的行为是正确的，但仍然 it's acting right but still
看起来还没准备好 it doesn't look like it's really ready to go just yet
所以我的位置是半 so I'm at a half position
我们现在就这么说吧 let's just say now this
再过一两天就会更紧了 you know tightens up another day or two
然后从这里出来 and then comes out of here
那我可能会再加一遍 well then I probably add to it again
然后我们把它移动到一个完整的位置 and then we move it up to a full position
因为现在我们已经四舍五入了 because now we've rounded out and we're really forming
非常经典的作弊手法 very classic cheat here
这是这是一点 this is this is a little
你知道这里很有创意 you know this is creative down here
我们正在通过这些供应 and we're going through that supply
但现在你知道有更多的供应 but now you know there is some more supply
但是再一次 but again
我们在这个范围的中间有点高 we're a little bit up in the range here in the middle
三分之一，这就是经典的作弊 one third and now forming that classic cheat
这就是我要更激进的地方 that's where I'll actually get more aggressive
并占据更大的位置 and take a bigger position as it
它不断建立这些支点，然后从那里开始 it keeps building those pivots and then from there
我的意思是，它甚至可能建立另一个支点 I mean it might even build another pivot
这可能需要时间 it may take time
然后建一个大基地 and build out this whole big base
但到目前为止，它表现良好 but so far it's acting well
当牌从牌堆里出来的时候 as the cards come out of the deck here
我们可以对位置进行加减 you know we either add or subtract from our position
随着贸易的发展不断弯曲，或者 and bend and bend as the trade improves or
或降解 or degrades here
irmd是另一个 irmd's another one
你在哪里见过有很多 where you've seen there's been a number of
我刚开始说的姿势 positions that I've just started and said
没有四分位或半分位 no quarter position or half position
从这个低点开始 this came off this low right here
你知道，这是一个小小的欺骗区域 and playing it off of just you know a little cheat area
但是再一次 but again
这个的可能性 the likelihood this just shoots out
而且不会向后拉，形成某种支点 and doesn't pull back and form some type of pivot
是很低 is pretty low
所以我进去了 so I get in there get
进入 get in
你的仓位很小，可能只有几个百分点 and you get a small position on maybe get a couple %
获得，然后开始构建下一个轴心 gain and then start building into that next pivot
如果它真的在周五建成了 if it builds and that actually happened on Friday
你可以在周五的时候加进去 you could have actually added to it on Friday
和 and and
它再次超过了前一天的高点 and again it did move above the previous day is high
但我选择在这里稍作说明 but I chose to just hold up on this a little bit
这里有一个反转，这里有一个反转 you got this reversal here this reversal here
我想我们还需要一点时间 I think we just need a little bit more time
也许我们改天再进去 maybe we go inside another day
我们从那里看吧 let's let's watch it from there
如果它从那里出现 if it turns up from there
然后熬过前几天的高潮 and get through those previous days highs
我可能还要补充一点 I'm probably going to add to that too
然后开始向上移动我的位置 and start moving my position up in that
这就是我在交易中建立和补充的方式 that's the way that I build into a trade and add
很多时候 a lot of times
我们得到的问题 we get questions
关于你如何扩大规模，建立一个位置 on how you scale in and build a position
但 but
我想让你们意识到的一件事是 the one thing I want you to realize and notice is that
我在基地建立阵地 I'm building the position in the base
我不是在添油加醋 I'm not adding to it
起飞后，它被拉长了 after it takes off and it's extended
因为它在上升 just because it's up
我把它加到底 I'm adding to it in the base
一旦它离开基地 and once it gets out of the base
我就不加了 I'm no longer going to add
让我们在这里看到的 let's see here
我们来看一些名字 let's go through some names that
我们可以在这里进行警戒 we may put on by alert here
阿波正试图在右边形成一个支点。 apo g's trying to form a pivot here on the right side
你得到了一个很好的大小基础形式 you got a pretty good size base form
你可以看到DCP的形式 and you can see dcp form in there
cls cls
再向右一点 again forming a little right side
你站在这里，你从一个间隙过来 you're up here and that you came on a gap
走势相当强劲，拉回如何逆转 moved up pretty strong pulled back how to reversal
那天收盘时股价很高 closed on the high that day
现在你可以把它拉回来 and now you get a little pull back by put in there
你知道 you know
你也许可以从撤退开始 you could have maybe started on that pull back by
但我要我要等这一次 but I'm gonna I'm gonna wait on this one
这是 it's
它收紧得很好 it's fairly you know it's tightening up really good
让我们在这里看到的 let's see here
好市多 Costco
我曾经是谁 is one that I was
我想在这里买 I was thinking of buying it here
在这个小作弊区 on this little cheat area right here
但我没有 but I held off
我希望能得到更多的确认 and I'm looking for a little more confirmation
股票的价格在这里很紧 in the stock it's staying tight right here
卷进来 volumes coming in
这就形成了一个把手 so this is forming a little handle here
卡式肺囊虫肺炎csl pcp csl
另一个形成了一个紧密的轴心 another one forming a little tight pivot
这正是我们想看到的 see this is exactly what we want to see
当市场反弹时，就会回落 as the market rallies then pulls back
我们希望看到轴心的发展 we want to see pivots develop
越来越多的支点和基地发展起来 more and more pivots and more and more bases develop
我们希望看到这种情况的扩散 we want to see a proliferation of this
当然还有随后的爆发 and then of course subsequent breakouts
然后是分手 and then those breakups
那些痘 those breakouts
平均持有或平衡持有 hold on average or on balance
CVS另一个在这里形成了一个枢轴 cvs another one forming a pivot here
我一开始当然是买了这个这个很紧 I started of course buying this this is a pretty tight
太紧了 it's a pretty tight
这是一只相当保守的股票 and it's a pretty conservative stock
所以我很愿意去 so I was so willing to go
马上就位，做好充分准备 right in with a full position on that
dy dy
再次形成右侧，试图收紧 again forming a right side here trying to tighten up
这些都是我在关注的股票 these are all stocks that I'm watching here
又有一个在这里变紧了 gw ww another one getting tight right here
在右边形成一个枢轴 right forming a pivot on this right side
我们会看 we'll watch that
我说过 irmd I talked about that
我可能会随时待命 I'll probably go on by alert
JBHT也是可以随时待命的 jbht that's also one that could be on by alert
因为你把撤退安排在 because you're setting up this pullback by
你实际上是在进入 you're essentially getting in
如果你在股市回落时买了 if you buy it turning up from the pullback by
你差不多就在附近 you're getting in pretty much right around
的突破 the breakout
你最初买的价格差不多吗 is if you originally bought it around the same price
可能会多付钱一点 maybe paying up a little bit
这个srra是我一直在关注的 this srra was one that I've been watching
这是一场权力游戏 as a power play over here
我们把这个小奶昔弄出来了 we got this little shake out
从那时起 since then
它向上延伸到右边，没有太多的枢轴 it ran up the right side without much of a pivot
但现在你已经为此付出了代价 but now you've paid the price it's coming in
现在我希望它开始发展 and now I'm looking for this to start developing
以点为单位 some type of by point
再换一个 ste r another one
你这有个骗子 you got a cheat forming over here
我们看看能不能把它造出来 we'll see if we can build this out
可能还需要一点时间 might need a little more time
让我们看看thc let's see thc
这个你知道的 this one this one you know
右边是不是有点乱 is a bit sloppy here on the right side
但要把这里收紧 but trying to tighten up here
这不是我最喜欢的情况 not my favorite situation
但这是可行的，绝对可行 but it could work it could definitely work
所以我会密切关注的 so I'm keep an eye on that
xpof是另一个 and this xpof is another one where
你的右边在发育 you've got this right side developing
而原因是 and the reason why
我没买 I didn't buy it
即使在这里，你也可以摆脱这种欺骗 like even here you could a border off this cheat
我在这里画一条线 let me just draw on a line right here
你可以直接从这里上船 you could aboard it coming right through here
但是它比它更宽 but it's it's wider than it
如果你仔细看，就会发现 it appears like if you look at it
看起来，你知道，很不错的基地形成 looks like a you know pretty decent base forming
但是如果你 but if you take the
从高到低，这是2122% from high to low this is twenty one twenty two percent
这就是底的深度 so that in itself is the depth of a base
即使是这么小的 and even this little
这个柄的枢轴可不小 pivot here of this handle that's not so little
我们一直向下测量 we measure that all the way down
哎呀错误的工具 whoops wrong tool
让我们, let's get that
我们一直向下测量 we measure that all the way down
是的，我们看到的是百分之十五到十六 yeah we're looking at like fifteen sixteen percent
这不是个位数 so that's not that single digit
轴心尺寸是我喜欢的 pivot size that I prefer
所以我得去看看 so I'm gonna have to see some type of
收紧这里，也许可以进去 you know tightening here maybe go inside and
设置一个数学停止 puts up a mathematical stop
因为我不会允许 because I'm not gonna be able to allow
这是要爆发的 this to break out
然后一路回到低谷之下 and come all the way back down below the lows
停下来，因为这样就变成15了 and stop out because then it would be a fifteen
百分之十六的损失 sixteen percent lost
这太大了 and that's too big
我绝不会接受这种损失 I would never take that kind of loss
所以这是我一直关注的问题 so that's one that I'm keeping an eye on
观察它是如何发展的 watching how it develops
"兄弟"是我监视的另一个地方 bros is another one where I'm keeping an eye here
很明显你可以看到我有一大堆 obviously you can see I got a whole bunch of
这里有弯弯曲曲的注释 squiggly notes in here
我把这些东西拿出来，这样我们就能看清楚了 let me actually take this stuff out so we can see
看看现在发生了什么 the chart what's happening now
哦，很抱歉 whoops sorry about that
等等，拿着这个 hold on take this
好吧，我不知道为什么这里不按顺序 all right I don't know why it's not going in order here
但是再坚持 but hold on
把这些东西拿出来 take out some of this stuff
好了，好了 there we go there we go okay
是的，所以这几乎就是演戏 yeah so this has been you know pretty much acting
课本上讲过这种构造方法 textbook you know just this sort of building these
这些不同的轴心 these various pivots and
并多次进入这里的补给区 and heading into this supply here several times
你可以看到右边被压缩了 you can see we came up this right side compressed
很明显，这可能是不可持续的 that was obvious that it was probably unsustainable
回来了，我们组成了这个低级的骗子 came back down now we form this low cheat
但你这里有很多补给 but you're heading into a lot of supply here
在左边 on the left side
离高处有一个很好的距离 a good distance off the high
当它上升的时候 so again as it runs up
很有可能会供应充足 very likely that it will run into supply
而这正是已经发生的事情 and that's precisely what has happened
你可以看到我们有了补给 you can see we ran into that supply
现在我们要收紧了 and now we're trying to tighten up
如果这里能收紧 so if this can tighten up here
我要把这个移上来 I'm just gonna move this up
这个可以在这里收紧 this could tighten up right around in here
我们可以得到一个主形式 and we can get a pivot form
我对这个很感兴趣 I would be very interested in this
在此之上 you know above this
我不知道大概在62到63之间 I don't know it's around 62 to 63 range
从一个充分发展的基地出来 coming out of a fully developed base
现在你看这里，如果我们看这里 now you see how over here if we look over here
你看，右边非常直 you see how that right side is just very straight up
右边是压缩 the right side there that's compression
这不是我们所说的时间压缩 that's not what we call time compression
有些人可能不知道这个术语 for those of you don't know that term
回去读我的书 go back read my books
有关于它的讨论 and there's discussions about it
但在这 but here this
现在你可以看到基地是如何完全按照自己的方式工作的 you can see now how the base is fully working its way
在右边 on that right side
你现在还在建造墓地 and you're building out some cemetery now
现在你也可以看到 and you can also see how now
宫缩了 you've got the contractions
你看，这里有一个收缩 you see now you've got the contraction here one
你这里也有宫缩 you got a contraction here too
这是你的第三次宫缩 and now this would be your 3rd contraction
波动性正在缩小 that volatility is contracting
这就是导致供应中断的原因 and that's what's ringing the supply out
通过点来创造 and creating that by point that
这是一个潜在的点 that potential bypoint here
创造出一条阻力最小的线 and creating that line of least resistance
,利弗莫尔 that livermore
指 referred to
我认为我指的是开创性的工作 in what I think what I refer to is groundbreaking work
那 that
早在20世纪20年代，利弗莫尔就发现了一些问题 livermore was onto something as early as the 1920s
直到今天，这都是永恒的 and we used to this day that is just timeless
所以，马克，我们要留意供应是否会停止 so look watching for that supply to stop coming mark
进入市场 coming to market
告知那条阻力最小的路线 informing that line of least resistance
这是进入点的关键 that's the key to your entry points
我想说的是我宁愿进入 and my whole point is that I'd be rather entering
更高更高 higher higher
从那个漂亮的入口点 from that nice entry point
我会充分发展基础 I'll fully develop base
而不是从这里进入 than entering from down here
我要被鞭打的地方 where I'm going to get whipped around and
可能会被拦下 probably get stopped out
因为这个基础还没有完全发展 because the base just hasn't fully developed yet
好吧，有点拗口 okay that was a mouthful
假设gogl let's say gogl
另一个这是 another one that's
试图在右边收紧 trying to tighten up here on the right side
我只是 I'm just
我现在要去我最重要的地方了 I'm actually going down to my high on deck list now
这是 that's
名字不是 names that are not
可能会保持警惕，但我在看 probably gonna be by alert but I'm watching
当然，上周我们把太阳放到了警戒状态。 gt n of course we put the sun by alert last week
右边这里正试图收紧 it's trying to tighten up over here on the right side
类似的一个 something like an
他另一个 hes another one
右边稍微往上一点 swedging a little bit up the right side
但要在这里形成一个主轴 but trying to form a pivot there
pdf文档 pdfs
这是低级的欺骗 that's a low cheat
你会在那里获得大量供应 you are going to a lot of supply there
这可能还为时过早 so that might be a little premature
尤其是在这里有这么大的下降 especially with this big decline right here
psa psa
再往上挤一点 again wedging up a little bit
但看起来它想从这个基地出来 but looking like it wants to come out of this base
这些都是 so those are
这是我正在观看的一些名字 those are some of the names that I'm watching here
是潜在的 that are potential
有些人当然比其他人好看 some are you know of course better looking than others
但我们确实有很多立场 but we do have a lot of positions that we put on
所以你绝对应该 so you should definitely be having
关于可能的一些观点 a handful of positions on maybe
如果你非常保守，投资25% if you're super conservative 25 % invested
如果你更有攻击性 if you're more aggressive
如果一切顺利，就投资50% 50% invested if things are working really well
你当然可以有75%甚至100%的投资 you could certainly be 75 or even 100% invested
现在我们已经受够了 at this point we've had enough
想法能够得到充分的投资 ideas to be able to get fully invested
这只是一个问题 it's just a matter of
什么类型的牵引 what type of traction
你会得到属于你自己的投资组合 you're getting in your own portfolio
也许你先买了哪些股票 maybe which stocks you bought first
然后接下来发生了什么 and what then what transpired subsequent to that
但 but
最主要的是根据你的 the main thing is to make the decision based on your
自己的投资组合 own portfolio
发生了什么 what's going on
直到你有了影响力，有了自己的投资组合 and until you get traction and your own portfolio
不逞强不加 do not get aggressive do not add
大量曝光 a lot of exposure
直到你的初次暴露给你展示了一些牵引力 until your initial exposure is shown you some traction
并从那里 and from there
我们下次再见 you know we'll see you on
我们下次节目再见 we'll see you on
周一的课程 Monday of course
现在是周六，我在做这个视频 this is Saturday right now that I'm doing this video
我们周一见 and we'll see you on on Monday and
1130的时候会有q amp a and we'll have q amp a at 1130
好了，我们再聊，再见 all right talk to you guys then bye bye