1 00:00:15,690 --> 00:00:20,800 good afternoon and proud to be here on 2 00:00:18,700 --> 00:00:22,810 talax crack or I'll try to speak a 3 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:24,970 little bit today about a phenomenon 4 00:00:22,810 --> 00:00:27,279 which can and is actually changing the 5 00:00:24,970 --> 00:00:29,560 world and whose name is people power 6 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:32,020 I'll start with the anecdote or for 7 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:34,480 those of you who are Monty Python lovers 8 00:00:32,020 --> 00:00:38,800 a Monty Python type of sketch here it is 9 00:00:34,480 --> 00:00:40,779 it is December 15 2010 somebody gives 10 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,940 you a bet you will look at the crystal 11 00:00:40,780 --> 00:00:45,040 ball and you will see the future future 12 00:00:42,940 --> 00:00:47,530 will be accurate but you need to share 13 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:49,930 it to the world okay curiosity kill the 14 00:00:47,530 --> 00:00:51,940 cat you take the bet you look at the 15 00:00:49,930 --> 00:00:53,950 crystal ball one hour layer you're 16 00:00:51,940 --> 00:00:56,500 sitting in a building of the national TV 17 00:00:53,950 --> 00:01:00,879 in the top show and you tell the story 18 00:00:56,500 --> 00:01:04,180 before the end of 2011 vaneli and 19 00:01:00,879 --> 00:01:07,750 Mubarak and Gaddafi would be down and 20 00:01:04,180 --> 00:01:10,660 prosecuted Saleh Xavier manan Assad of 21 00:01:07,750 --> 00:01:13,060 Syria would be ear challenged or already 22 00:01:10,660 --> 00:01:15,340 on their knees all sama bin Laden would 23 00:01:13,060 --> 00:01:18,369 be dead and rod commodity would be in 24 00:01:15,340 --> 00:01:20,860 heck no the anchor watches you with a 25 00:01:18,369 --> 00:01:23,050 strange gaze on his face and then on the 26 00:01:20,860 --> 00:01:25,300 top of it you had and thousands of the 27 00:01:23,050 --> 00:01:27,520 young people from Athens Madrid in New 28 00:01:25,300 --> 00:01:29,530 York will demonstrate for social justice 29 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:33,069 claiming that they are inspired with 30 00:01:29,530 --> 00:01:34,630 Arabs next thing you know two guys in 31 00:01:33,069 --> 00:01:37,149 white appear they give you the strange 32 00:01:34,630 --> 00:01:39,520 t-shirt take it to the nearest mental 33 00:01:37,149 --> 00:01:42,069 institution so I would like to speak a 34 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:44,348 little bit about the phenomenon which is 35 00:01:42,069 --> 00:01:46,929 behind what already seems to be the very 36 00:01:44,349 --> 00:01:50,349 bad year for a bad guys and this 37 00:01:46,929 --> 00:01:52,060 phenomenon is called people power well 38 00:01:50,349 --> 00:01:54,819 people power has been there for a while 39 00:01:52,060 --> 00:01:56,910 it helped Gandhi kick brits from India 40 00:01:54,819 --> 00:02:00,399 it helped Martin Luther King wins 41 00:01:56,910 --> 00:02:03,280 historic racial struggle it helped local 42 00:02:00,399 --> 00:02:05,679 like Valenza to kick out 1 million 43 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:08,110 Soviet troops from Poland and beginning 44 00:02:05,679 --> 00:02:11,260 the end of the Soviet Union as we know 45 00:02:08,110 --> 00:02:13,120 it so what's new in it what seems to be 46 00:02:11,260 --> 00:02:14,920 very new which is the idea i would like 47 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:17,920 to share with you today that there is a 48 00:02:14,920 --> 00:02:20,609 set of rules and skills which can be 49 00:02:17,920 --> 00:02:23,409 learned and taught in order to perform 50 00:02:20,610 --> 00:02:24,220 successful nonviolent struggle if this 51 00:02:23,409 --> 00:02:27,310 is true 52 00:02:24,220 --> 00:02:30,700 we can help this movements well first 53 00:02:27,310 --> 00:02:32,830 one analytic skills I'll try where it 54 00:02:30,700 --> 00:02:35,160 all started in the Middle East and for 55 00:02:32,830 --> 00:02:37,870 so many years we were living with 56 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:39,609 completely the wrong perception of the 57 00:02:37,870 --> 00:02:42,580 Middle East it was looking like a frozen 58 00:02:39,610 --> 00:02:44,950 region literally refrigerator and there 59 00:02:42,580 --> 00:02:47,890 are only two types of meal their steak 60 00:02:44,950 --> 00:02:50,369 which stands for a Mubarak benelli type 61 00:02:47,890 --> 00:02:53,049 of military police dictatorship or a 62 00:02:50,370 --> 00:02:55,720 potato which stands for tethering type 63 00:02:53,050 --> 00:02:57,580 of Tokra sees and everybody was amazed 64 00:02:55,720 --> 00:03:00,370 when the refrigerator opened and 65 00:02:57,580 --> 00:03:02,920 millions of young mainly secular people 66 00:03:00,370 --> 00:03:06,220 step out to do the change guess what 67 00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:08,530 they didn't watch the demographics what 68 00:03:06,220 --> 00:03:12,370 is the average age of Egyptian 24 how 69 00:03:08,530 --> 00:03:15,610 long mubarak in power 31 so this system 70 00:03:12,370 --> 00:03:17,350 just obsolete the expert and young 71 00:03:15,610 --> 00:03:20,290 people of our world have awakened one 72 00:03:17,350 --> 00:03:22,540 morning and understood that power lies 73 00:03:20,290 --> 00:03:25,030 in their hand the rest is the year in 74 00:03:22,540 --> 00:03:27,370 front of us and guess what the same 75 00:03:25,030 --> 00:03:29,739 generation epsilon with the rules with 76 00:03:27,370 --> 00:03:31,450 our tools with their games and with your 77 00:03:29,739 --> 00:03:35,680 language which sounds a little bit 78 00:03:31,450 --> 00:03:36,970 strange to me I'm 38 now and can you 79 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:39,610 look at the age of the people the 80 00:03:36,970 --> 00:03:44,560 streets of Europe seems that generation 81 00:03:39,610 --> 00:03:46,000 epsilon is coming now let me set another 82 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:48,040 example I'm meeting different people 83 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:50,500 throw the world and there are you know 84 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:52,150 academics and professors and doctors and 85 00:03:50,500 --> 00:03:54,700 they will always store conditions 86 00:03:52,150 --> 00:03:56,739 they'll say people power will work only 87 00:03:54,700 --> 00:03:58,839 if regime is not too oppressive they 88 00:03:56,739 --> 00:04:00,820 will say people power will work if the 89 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:03,489 annual income of the countries between X 90 00:04:00,820 --> 00:04:05,380 and that they'll say people power will 91 00:04:03,489 --> 00:04:07,120 work only if there is a foreign pressure 92 00:04:05,380 --> 00:04:09,430 they will say people power will work 93 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:12,790 only if there is no oil and I mean there 94 00:04:09,430 --> 00:04:15,100 is a set of conditions well the news 95 00:04:12,790 --> 00:04:17,680 here is that your skills bring in the 96 00:04:15,100 --> 00:04:20,620 conflict seems to be more important than 97 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:22,990 the conditions namely skills of unity 98 00:04:20,620 --> 00:04:24,430 planning and maintain nonviolent 99 00:04:22,990 --> 00:04:26,530 discipline let me give you the example 100 00:04:24,430 --> 00:04:30,640 i'm coming from country called serbia 101 00:04:26,530 --> 00:04:33,340 took us 10 years to unite 18 opposition 102 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:36,159 party leaders with their big egos behind 103 00:04:33,340 --> 00:04:37,638 one single candidate against balkan 104 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,169 dictator slobodan milosevic 105 00:04:37,639 --> 00:04:41,659 guess what that was the day of his 106 00:04:39,169 --> 00:04:43,818 defeat you look at the Egyptians day 107 00:04:41,659 --> 00:04:45,650 five on the career square they get rid 108 00:04:43,819 --> 00:04:47,599 of their individual symbols they appear 109 00:04:45,650 --> 00:04:50,060 on the street only with the flag of 110 00:04:47,599 --> 00:04:52,430 Egypt i will give you contour example 111 00:04:50,060 --> 00:04:54,499 you see nine presidential candidates 112 00:04:52,430 --> 00:04:57,740 running against Lukashenka you will know 113 00:04:54,499 --> 00:04:59,840 the outcome so unity is a big thing and 114 00:04:57,740 --> 00:05:02,139 this can be achieved same with planning 115 00:04:59,840 --> 00:05:04,609 somebody have lied to you about this 116 00:05:02,139 --> 00:05:06,680 successful and spontaneous nonviolent 117 00:05:04,610 --> 00:05:09,439 revolution that things doesn't exist in 118 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,969 a world whenever you see young people in 119 00:05:09,439 --> 00:05:13,340 front of the road trying to fraternize 120 00:05:10,969 --> 00:05:16,039 with the police or military somebody was 121 00:05:13,340 --> 00:05:17,960 thinking about it before now at the end 122 00:05:16,039 --> 00:05:20,270 of nonviolent discipline and this is 123 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:22,698 probably the game changer if you 124 00:05:20,270 --> 00:05:25,909 maintain nonviolent discipline you will 125 00:05:22,699 --> 00:05:27,860 exclusively win you have 100,000 people 126 00:05:25,909 --> 00:05:29,839 in a non-violent market one idiot or 127 00:05:27,860 --> 00:05:32,029 agent provocateur drawing stone guess 128 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:34,339 what takes all the cameras that one guy 129 00:05:32,029 --> 00:05:38,719 one single act of violence can literally 130 00:05:34,339 --> 00:05:40,219 destroy your movement now let me move to 131 00:05:38,719 --> 00:05:42,110 another place its selection of 132 00:05:40,219 --> 00:05:44,569 strategies and tactics there are certain 133 00:05:42,110 --> 00:05:47,629 rules in nonviolent struggle you may 134 00:05:44,569 --> 00:05:51,620 follow first you start small second you 135 00:05:47,629 --> 00:05:53,389 pick the bells you can win it's only 200 136 00:05:51,620 --> 00:05:56,149 of us in this room we won't call for the 137 00:05:53,389 --> 00:05:57,740 march of million but what if we organize 138 00:05:56,149 --> 00:06:00,409 spraying graffiti throughout the night 139 00:05:57,740 --> 00:06:02,719 all over crack of city the city will 140 00:06:00,409 --> 00:06:04,490 know so we pick the tactics which 141 00:06:02,719 --> 00:06:07,370 accommodates to the event especially 142 00:06:04,490 --> 00:06:10,449 this thing we call the small tactics of 143 00:06:07,370 --> 00:06:12,620 dispersion they're very useful in a 144 00:06:10,449 --> 00:06:14,719 violent oppression we are actually 145 00:06:12,620 --> 00:06:17,449 witnessing the picture of one of the 146 00:06:14,719 --> 00:06:19,370 best tactics ever used it was on the 147 00:06:17,449 --> 00:06:21,620 career square where international 148 00:06:19,370 --> 00:06:24,199 community was constantly frightened that 149 00:06:21,620 --> 00:06:25,779 you know the Islamists will overtake the 150 00:06:24,199 --> 00:06:28,039 revolution while they've organized 151 00:06:25,779 --> 00:06:29,990 Christians protecting Muslims where they 152 00:06:28,039 --> 00:06:32,149 were praying Coptic wedding cheered by 153 00:06:29,990 --> 00:06:34,339 thousands of Muslims the world has just 154 00:06:32,149 --> 00:06:36,860 changed the picture but somebody was 155 00:06:34,339 --> 00:06:38,899 thinking about this previously so there 156 00:06:36,860 --> 00:06:41,810 are so many things you can do instead of 157 00:06:38,899 --> 00:06:44,000 get getting into one place shouting and 158 00:06:41,810 --> 00:06:46,969 you know showing off in front of the 159 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:49,610 security forces now there is also 160 00:06:46,969 --> 00:06:51,800 another very important dynamics and this 161 00:06:49,610 --> 00:06:54,080 is dynamics normally analytics 162 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:57,409 see this is dynamics between fear and 163 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:59,900 apathy on one side and enthusiasm and 164 00:06:57,409 --> 00:07:02,240 humor on another side so it works like 165 00:06:59,900 --> 00:07:04,310 in video game you have a fear hi you 166 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:06,680 have status quo you haven't to Z as I'm 167 00:07:04,310 --> 00:07:08,389 higher you see if you're starting 168 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:12,050 melting day to you see people running 169 00:07:08,389 --> 00:07:13,639 towards police instant from the police 170 00:07:12,050 --> 00:07:15,650 in Egypt you can tell that some 171 00:07:13,639 --> 00:07:18,139 something is happening there and then 172 00:07:15,650 --> 00:07:20,270 it's about a humor humor is such a 173 00:07:18,139 --> 00:07:22,220 powerful game changer and of course it 174 00:07:20,270 --> 00:07:24,440 was very big in Poland you know we were 175 00:07:22,220 --> 00:07:28,069 just a small group of crazy students in 176 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:30,620 Serbia when we made this big skit we put 177 00:07:28,069 --> 00:07:33,080 the big petrol barrel with a you know 178 00:07:30,620 --> 00:07:34,669 portrait picture of mr. president on it 179 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,620 in the middle of the mainstream there 180 00:07:34,669 --> 00:07:39,229 was a hole on the top so you could 181 00:07:36,620 --> 00:07:42,770 literally come put the coin in get a 182 00:07:39,229 --> 00:07:45,590 baseball bat and hit his face sounds 183 00:07:42,770 --> 00:07:47,359 loud in within the minutes we were 184 00:07:45,590 --> 00:07:49,758 sitting in a nearby cafe having coffee 185 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:52,610 and there was a clue of people waiting 186 00:07:49,759 --> 00:07:54,530 to do this lovely thing well that's just 187 00:07:52,610 --> 00:07:57,860 the beginning of the show the real show 188 00:07:54,530 --> 00:07:59,989 starts when the police appears what they 189 00:07:57,860 --> 00:08:01,279 will do arrest us we are nowhere to be 190 00:07:59,990 --> 00:08:03,380 seen we were like three blocks away 191 00:08:01,279 --> 00:08:06,020 observing it from our you know espresso 192 00:08:03,380 --> 00:08:08,449 bar I read the shoppers with kids 193 00:08:06,020 --> 00:08:09,859 doesn't make sense of course you could 194 00:08:08,449 --> 00:08:12,259 bet they've done the most stupid thing 195 00:08:09,860 --> 00:08:14,419 they arrested the bar and now the 196 00:08:12,259 --> 00:08:15,979 picture of the smashed face on the 197 00:08:14,419 --> 00:08:18,590 barrel with the policeman drugging them 198 00:08:15,979 --> 00:08:20,389 to the police car that was the best day 199 00:08:18,590 --> 00:08:22,789 for the photographers from newspapers 200 00:08:20,389 --> 00:08:24,710 that they ever will have so I mean this 201 00:08:22,789 --> 00:08:26,029 these are the things you can do and you 202 00:08:24,710 --> 00:08:28,549 can always use the humor there is also 203 00:08:26,029 --> 00:08:31,219 one big thing about the humor it really 204 00:08:28,550 --> 00:08:33,740 hurts because these guys really are 205 00:08:31,219 --> 00:08:36,799 taking themselves too seriously when you 206 00:08:33,740 --> 00:08:39,289 start to mock them it hurts now 207 00:08:36,799 --> 00:08:41,419 everybody is talking about his Majesty 208 00:08:39,289 --> 00:08:44,930 the internet and it is also very useful 209 00:08:41,419 --> 00:08:46,939 skill and but don't rush to label things 210 00:08:44,930 --> 00:08:49,880 like Facebook revolution Twitter 211 00:08:46,940 --> 00:08:52,940 revolution don't mix tools with a 212 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:55,160 substance it is true that internet and 213 00:08:52,940 --> 00:08:57,860 new media are very useful in making 214 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,750 things faster and cheaper they make it 215 00:08:57,860 --> 00:09:02,060 also a bit safer for the participants 216 00:08:59,750 --> 00:09:04,160 because they give the part of an anomaly 217 00:09:02,060 --> 00:09:05,520 we are watching the great example of 218 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,980 something else internet can 219 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:10,350 it can put the price tag of 220 00:09:07,980 --> 00:09:12,360 state-sponsored violence over nonviolent 221 00:09:10,350 --> 00:09:14,790 protester this is famous group we are 222 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:16,530 all colored side made by wael ghonim in 223 00:09:14,790 --> 00:09:18,930 egypt and his friend this is the 224 00:09:16,530 --> 00:09:21,120 mutilated face of the guy who was beaten 225 00:09:18,930 --> 00:09:23,250 by the police this is how he became the 226 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:26,280 public and this is what probably became 227 00:09:23,250 --> 00:09:28,350 the stro which broke camel's back but 228 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,689 here is also the bad news the nonviolent 229 00:09:28,350 --> 00:09:33,630 struggle is when in a real world in the 230 00:09:30,690 --> 00:09:36,180 streets you will never change your 231 00:09:33,630 --> 00:09:38,460 society towards democracy or you know 232 00:09:36,180 --> 00:09:40,800 economics if you sit down and click 233 00:09:38,460 --> 00:09:42,870 there are risks to be taken and there 234 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:45,510 are living people who are winning the 235 00:09:42,870 --> 00:09:47,430 struggle well million dollar question 236 00:09:45,510 --> 00:09:50,100 what will happen in the Arab world and 237 00:09:47,430 --> 00:09:52,260 though young people from Arab world were 238 00:09:50,100 --> 00:09:56,100 pretty successful in bringing down three 239 00:09:52,260 --> 00:09:58,410 dictators shaking the region kind of 240 00:09:56,100 --> 00:10:01,050 persuading clever Kings from Jordan and 241 00:09:58,410 --> 00:10:03,949 Morocco doing substantial reforms it is 242 00:10:01,050 --> 00:10:06,839 yet to be seen what will be the outcome 243 00:10:03,950 --> 00:10:09,060 whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will 244 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:11,160 make it through the transition or this 245 00:10:09,060 --> 00:10:14,310 will end in bloody ethnic and religious 246 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:18,000 conflicts whether the Syrians will 247 00:10:14,310 --> 00:10:20,219 maintain on violent discipline faced 248 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:22,410 with a brutal daily violence which kills 249 00:10:20,220 --> 00:10:27,230 thousands already or they will slip in a 250 00:10:22,410 --> 00:10:30,360 violent struggle and make ugly Civil War 251 00:10:27,230 --> 00:10:31,920 will these revolutions be whole like 252 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:34,770 through the transitions and democracy or 253 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:38,729 be overtaken by military or extra mist 254 00:10:34,770 --> 00:10:40,920 of all kind we cannot tell same works 255 00:10:38,730 --> 00:10:42,390 for the western sector where you can see 256 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,160 all these excited young people 257 00:10:42,390 --> 00:10:47,670 protesting around the world occupying 258 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:50,130 this occupying that are they going to 259 00:10:47,670 --> 00:10:52,829 become the world wave are they're going 260 00:10:50,130 --> 00:10:56,189 to find their skills their enthusiasm 261 00:10:52,830 --> 00:10:58,350 and their strategy to find what they 262 00:10:56,190 --> 00:11:00,870 really want and push for the reform or 263 00:10:58,350 --> 00:11:04,400 they will just stay complaining about 264 00:11:00,870 --> 00:11:07,710 the endless list of the things they hate 265 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:11,250 this is the difference between to town 266 00:11:07,710 --> 00:11:14,010 now what the statistics has my friends 267 00:11:11,250 --> 00:11:15,330 book Maria Stefan's book talks a lot 268 00:11:14,010 --> 00:11:17,760 about the violent and nonviolent 269 00:11:15,330 --> 00:11:20,820 struggle and there are some shocking 270 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:23,280 data if you look at the last 35 years 271 00:11:20,820 --> 00:11:25,440 and different social transitions from 272 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:29,189 dictatorship to democracy you will see 273 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:31,320 that out of 67 different cases in 50 of 274 00:11:29,190 --> 00:11:36,090 these cases it was nonviolent struggle 275 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:37,830 which was the key power this is one more 276 00:11:36,090 --> 00:11:39,390 reason to look at this phenomenon this 277 00:11:37,830 --> 00:11:42,420 is one more reason to look at the 278 00:11:39,390 --> 00:11:44,910 generation epsilon enough for me to give 279 00:11:42,420 --> 00:11:48,329 them credits and hope that they will 280 00:11:44,910 --> 00:11:51,030 find their skills and their courage to 281 00:11:48,330 --> 00:11:52,920 use the nonviolent struggle and thus fix 282 00:11:51,030 --> 00:11:55,290 at least the part of the mess our 283 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:57,410 generation is making in this world thank 284 00:11:55,290 --> 00:11:57,410 you