好早上好 ok good morning
欢迎来到米诺维尼 and welcome to the minovini
私人接入交易室 private access trading room
鲍勃·魏斯曼，请举手 bob weissman if you can just raise your hand
让我知道你听得清清楚楚 letting me know that you're hearing me loud and clear
我希望大家周末都过得愉快 I hope everybody had a nice weekend
和 and
如果不是全部的话，希望大部分都是现金 are hopefully mostly if not entirely in cash
避免所有这些屠杀 avoiding all this carnage
看上去不错 looking good
用手马克 with hands mark
让我们也欢迎mark richie let's welcome mark richie as well
早上好,马克 good morning mark
早上好鲍勃早上好马克 morning bob morning mark
请迅速举手，这样你就可以 and just raise your hand real quick so you can
告诉我们你在马克 let us know you're here in mark
好的，最后 okay and then finally
让我们从今天的开始 let's get started with today's
每周与马克·米纳瓦尼指挥官马克会面 weekly session with mark minervani commander mark
大家早上好 okay good morning everyone
希望我们能有个愉快的周末 hope we wanna have a good weekend
我只是来市场看看 just taking a look here at the market
当然那年十一月 of course that November
这里20秒的手机信号是 20 seconds cell signal way back here is
看起来一天比一天好 looking better and better every day
再一次 again
我想回到突然失败这个词 I just want to go back to the words abrupt failure
你知道这就是 you know this is exactly
我们得做好准备 what we have to be prepared for
当我们买股票的时候 when we're trying to buy stocks
你在一列向下的火车上 that you're in a down train
你正处于熊市，而你还没有 you're in a bear market and you haven't gotten
你们知道牵引 you know traction yet
在那里你看到了一些波浪，你有点 where you've seen several waves and you've sort of
走出大门 gotten out of the gate
所以我们尝试了一下 so we gave it a shot
它实际上是 it was actually
这次集会可真热闹 got a great rally out of it
但很快又失败了 but again it failed very quickly
你必须非常迅速地回归现金 and you have to move very quickly back to cash
希望你们一直在追踪我们的线索 which hopefully you guys have been following our lead
这是 and again this is
这是一种职业危害 sort of an occupational hazard
进入市场 entering the market
从低谷中走出来 coming off the lows here
所以现在回到新的低点 so back to new lows here now
关键是我仍然能听到我之前发布的 key is I'm still hearing as I just posted before
让人们 have people
推特上到处都在说我们一定接近谷底了 all over Twitter saying we must be near the low
这太荒谬了 this is getting ridiculous
你知道纳斯达克吗? you know the nasdaq
你知道的绝对是一个低或接近低 you know is definitely made a low or close to a low
这是非常非常危险的想法 this is very very dangerous thinking
虽然我自己认为没有接待 and while I myself think that without a reception that
这条腿了 this leg down
如果我们再放下一条腿 if we get another leg down
看起来我们已经在这里了 which it looks like we already are here
但我是说如果它有意义的话 but I'm saying if it gets meaningful
我们真的开始了 and we really start to
出售 sell off
你知道的不止这些 you know even more than this
我认为我的观点是 I do think my opinion is that I think that
这可能是最后一段了 this could be the last leg
也可能是一条非常有破坏性的腿，或者非常 it could be also a very damaging leg or a very
你知道最后一条腿是在87度时坠毁的 you know that was the last leg was to crash at 87
在八七二年，这是最糟糕的腿 in eighty seven two and it was the worst legs
说了这么多 so with that said
我当然不会拿自己的观点做交易 I certainly wouldn't trade on my opinion
任何 whatsoever
我要等股票安排之类的 I'm gonna wait for the stock setups and so forth
所以你要非常非常 so just have to be you know very very
小心这种想法 careful with that type of thinking
然后开始想我可以买 and start thinking well I can buy
你知道脸书，还有这个妈妈倒下了 you know Facebook or this one mother down
是啊，也许也许你能逃脱惩罚 yeah maybe maybe you can get away with it
但这种想法 but that thinking has
一直以来都是这么想的 been the same thinking all the way down
有人承受着117,080%的损失 and there's people sitting with 117,080% losses
他们买入的股票已经下跌了50% that were buying stocks that were already down 50%
然后他们又买入，现在下跌了70% and then they buy them again and now they're down 70%
还能低多少 how much lower can it go
你从哪里购买的风险总是100%的 the your risk from where you purchase it is always 100%
记住这一点 just keep that in mind
无论股票从100到2，它都是100% it's always 100% no matter stock goes from 100 to two
它可以很容易地从2美元涨到1美元 it could it could very easily go from two to a dollar
事实上，现在更容易，因为它是2美元的股票 matter of fact more easily now that it's a $2 stock
所以不要因为下降了90%就去想 so don't ever think because it's gone down 90%
它只有10个 it only has 10 more
%负面，不，它一直都有100%的负面 % downside no it has 100% downside all the time
让我们来听听你们的问题 let's get your questions
好吧 all right
彼得的问 peter's asking
马克在这两个 mark in both
你的书里提到了一个股票领导人物的简介 your books you mention a stock leadership profile
要么在这里，要么在一个教程视频中 either here or in a tutorial video
你能详细说明一下这份蓝图吗 can you please elaborate on this blueprint
和分享 and share
具体的基础和技术是什么 what are the specific fundamental and technical
因素表现出 factors exhibited
历史上的超级明星的榜样 by historical models of past super performers
这和你要读的内容没有太大区别 well it's not much different then you're gonna read
你知道 you know about
在我 in my
这是我要关注的第一本书 first book where I talk about fundamentals to focus on
而且这和 and it won't be a whole lot different from
因为我们的工作是同质化的 william o'neill's books because our work is homogenists
我基本上一直坚持下去 I basically carried forward
理查德热爱奥尼尔发扬光大的工作 richard loves work which o'neill carried forward
理查德的爱 richard's love
理查德热爱工作，而我发扬光大 richard loves work and I carried forward
基本上是奥尼尔的研究成果 pretty much o'neill's work
那是九十年代，我刚开始用电脑的时候 back in the nineties when I first got computer power
开始 started
运行 running
因素模型和某种程度上证实了奥尼尔的工作 factor models and sort of confirming o'neill's work
和爱的工作 and love's work
爱情有点 love was sort of the
今天的奥尼尔 the o'neill of the day
jillar是奥尼尔的技术人员 and jillar was the technician that o'neill
输入并返回 keyed in on and and returned
将有平台的吉勒茶托装入有柄的杯子 jiller saucer with platform into a cup with handle
我后来拍了 I had later taken
这些作品使它们更加完善 those works and refined them even more
并命名为VCP并开始 and termed a vcp and started
看内在的特征 looking at the characteristics within
这些模式 those patterns to try to
更好地识别它们 identify them a little bit better
给那些日子不好过的人 for people who were having a hard time
看到这些模式，这就是原因 seeing those patterns and that's where
所以这一切这是一种 so it's all it's been sort of a
发展的过程 development in process
如果你愿意，也可以说是火炬传递 or a passing of the torch if you will
但这是一样的，如果你回到 but it's the same thing if you go back to
19世纪20年代和30年代 19 twenties and thirties
然后回到铁轨上 and go back to the rails back then
可口可乐 and the coca cola
可口可乐基本上是那个时候的怪兽饮料 coca cola was basically the monster beverage back then
他们有巨大的收益和销量 they had big huge earnings and sales
你可以看到他们从作弊区出来 you can see they were coming out of cheat areas and
有把手和底座的杯子 cup with handles and bases
处于第二阶段上升趋势 in a stage two up trend
什么都没有改变 nothing has changed
所以基本面就是收益 so fundamentals are earnings
加速收益 accelerating earnings
最近几个季度收益强劲 strong earnings most recent quarters
销售利润率 sales profit margins
听到我谈论我的第一本书的一切 breakout ears everything I talk about my first book
这就是所有 so that's all
你必须 you have to
去读我的第一本书或者奥尼尔的书 just go read my first book or read o'neal's book
你会看到一切 and you'll see everything
一切都在这里 everything's right there
我还得加上彼得 I have to add here peter though
这也是主交易员程序所在的位置 this is also where the master trader program is
非常适合学习马克思主义方法论 perfect for learning everything about marx methodology
不仅仅是 not just that
这是会发生的事情 and it is something that will
很容易解决这些问题 easily address all those
问题 questions as well
是啊，就像我所有的书和其他东西 yeah it's like all my books and everything
还有很多 plus a lot more
这些都有深入的解释 all explained in depth
我不知道我们现在有多少小时了 and I don't know how many hours we're at now
我们该怎么办 what are we gonna do
30小时炸弹，25分钟，是的，是的 30h bomb that fire 25 yeah yeah
所以你要花很多时间来解释每件事 so you know a lot of hours of explaining each thing
非常非常详细 and very and very much detail
你知道那才是我们真正能 you know that's where we can really
深入挖掘，深入挖掘 dig deep and do a deep dive
詹姆斯在找马克·里奇 james is asking for mark ritchie
马克·梅内维尼通常会建议我们不要去领导 mark menevini usually recommend so we try not to lead
有两位数的损失 have double digit losses
他在跟踪的时候注意到了 he noticed though on the tracking
你的交易记录 trading record that mark posted of yours
早在2008年10月 back in October of 2008
你确实失去了一些东西 you did have a loss
16%左右的 of around 16%
你能分享 can you share
你是怎么失去一两次的 how you racked up the loss one and then two
从那以后你学到了什么或者做了什么调整吗 have you learned or made any adjustments since then
确定 sure
这是一个 well this is a
这是我过去讲过的一个很好的例子 good example of what I've talked about in the past
知道你对所有事情的最大痛点 of knowing your maximum pain point on everything
但错误并非如此 and the mistake wasn't
我很清楚我在乎什么 I knew exactly what I was caring
我太在乎了 I was so I was caring
很多我资助的职位 a number of positions that I had financed
一些持有 some holds on
但是开放的贸易权益 but that open trade equity
随着 along with
所以我有一些靠在身上的位置 so I had some positions where I was leaning on
基本上就是一群赢家 basically a bunch of winners
它们都翘起尾巴，转过身来 that all tucked tailed and turned
我知道这一点 I was a cognizant of this
最大的错误 the biggest mistake though
混合了那个特殊的 that compounded that particular
回馈是同一个月 give back was that same month
因为我有朋友和家人 because I have a friends and family basically pool
我的一个 one of my
投资者决定对其中近30%的人进行调查 investors decided to poll almost 30% of the entire
账户 account
我最大的错误是 and I should the biggest mistake was
我应该把所有职位都裁掉30% I should have just cut all positions 30%
我当时非常乐观，但我大错特错了 I was very bullish at the time and I got it dead wrong
所以不是9或10% so instead of about a nine or a 10%
当我做任何事都要合作的时候 give back when I got collaborative on everything
这有点像墨菲定律 it's sort of murphy's law
如果你认为我们 if you think that we're
你知道 you know
最坏的情况绝对会发生 the worst can absolutely happen
所以这是一种双重打击 so it was sort of a double whammy
关于…是的 in regards and so yeah
这就是为什么我脑子里总是有那个号码 this is why I always have that number in my head
那是所有东西都被击中的时候 and that was a time when every single thing got hit
所以在调整方面，我现在甚至更快 so if in terms of adjustments now I'm even quicker
事情开始对我不利 as things start to turn against me
我的意见不重要 it doesn't matter what my opinion is
我开始冒险 I start taking in risk
我也看过 I also have looked at you know
回顾你的工作记录 mark your track record going back and
我当然知道 I know of course of
和你共事这么多年 working with you over the years that
我觉得你也好多了 I think you've gotten a lot better too
你知道当你回头看的时候 you know when you look back
所以,是的 so yeah
你知道 you know
你回顾一些人的过往记录 you look back at some people's track records and
要么改善要么有时恶化，但是 either they improve or sometimes it worsens but
我觉得我们已经变好了 I like to think that we've gotten better
我们已经学会了如何 and we've learned how to
为了更好地应对不利因素 to manage the downside even better
但你知道有时候你只是 but you know again sometimes you just
你什么也做不了 there's nothing you can do
你知道的，你进去，然后各就各位 you know you go in there and you take your positions
你会停止 you get stopped
你知道你把它放大了 and you know you ratchet it up and
不幸的是，失败是这场游戏的一部分 losses are part of this game unfortunately
如果一切都是游戏，我会成为一个万亿富翁 if it were all games I'd be a trillionaire
所以这是它的一部分 you know so it's part of it and
但我认为在一天结束的时候 but again I think at the end of the day
看看你的记录 looking at your track record
只有三年的低谷 with only three years downs
中间的数字很神奇，你怎么 mid digits it's pretty amazing and how you
你做到了，而且你似乎总是做到了 manage that and you always seem to
年底再来 come back at the end of the year
但我个人也是 but yeah I personally too just you know
两位数的下降 double digit draw downs or you know
会让我晚上睡不着觉吗 would make me not go to sleep at night so
我会不惜一切代价避开他们 I try to avoid them at all cost
好了，迈克尔在找马克 all right michael's asking for mark
我注意到 I noticed
我有一种经常看着我的账户反弹的趋势 I have a tendency to constantly watch my account bounce
整个交易日 throughout the trading day
这让人非常情绪化，无论上行还是下行 and this gets very emotional both on up and downside
我觉得我必须得看 I feel like I have to watch it
在某种程度上，尤其是当我在一天内做大交易的时候 to some extent especially if I'm trading big intra day
我怎么能 how can I
改变账户余额很重要的想法 change the belief that my account balance is important
每天都是这样 on a day to day basis
这是我做过的最好的事情之一 one of the best things that I ever did
我在九十年代做过 and I did it back in the nineties
从我的屏幕上删除了吗 was removed that from my screen
我记得当我第一次 I remember when I first got
一个我认为很棒的引用系统 a quote system that had that I thought it was great
我当时想，这一定会很棒 I was like wow this is gonna be great
我可以看着我的 I could watch my
把我所有的交易都结清，看看我在哪里 balance of all my trades and see where I am
会造成更大的破坏，更大的痛苦 that cause more havoc and more pain and more
情感比其他任何东西都重要 emotion than any other thing that's
发生在我的交易中 ever happened in my trading
是我常说的做吗 is that and I always say to make
把它完全从你的屏幕上拿开 take that completely off your screen
永远不要看那个 and don't ever look at that
你应该基于 you should be making your decisions based on
每个单独的贸易 each individual trade
每个人的风险 and putting on the amount of risk that each
每个决定都应该是独立的决定 each decision should be an independent decision
然后加起来，是的，是累计的 and then altogether yes you have accumulative
就像马克·里奇刚刚指出的那样 as as mark richie just pointed out
知道最大限度的回报 knowing that maximum give back
但你应该考虑到这一点 but you should be building into that
一旦你做了决定 and then once you've made that decision
到站了 and your stop is in
这就相当于它已经在集合中了 that's pretty much it's already in set
好吧，你不需要知道 alright you don't have to know
不管你是否接近它 whether you're getting close to it or not
但你能做什么 but what are you going to do
你越来越接近了 you're getting close to it
你的总余额接近它 your overall balance is getting close to it
甚至贸易平衡也在接近它 or even the trade balance is getting close to it
你打算在他之前把它剪掉吗 are you going to cut it out before him
因为你的平衡在哪里 just because where your balance is
这就是全部的情绪 that's just total emotion
你知道你已经做到了 you know you've already
我们应该已经做了决定 supposedly we've already made that decision
所以你唯一应该关注的是 so the only thing you should really be watching
是百分比 is the percentage
以及你相对于你的站的位置 and where you are relative to your stop
和运行monolert and running monolert
这样你就知道了 which is gonna let you know
如果你看到违反 if you're seeing violations
也许 and maybe
如果你想的话，你就应该减少 you should be then cutting back if you're gonna
削减 cut back
因为在你的站点被撞之前，它应该是基于 because before your stops get hit it should be based on
是否有违规行为 whether you're seeing violations
这是有原因的 and there's a real reason there
即便如此，如果你是新来的，我会很小心的 and even then I would be very careful if you're new
避开你的停车点 to circumvent your stops
你知道你真的需要一个计划 you know you really want to go in with a plan
试着坚持下去 try to stick with it
也许 maybe
你知道你会不会去 you know if you're going to
交易使用普通警告，你寻找违规你 trade using mon alert and you look for violations you
砍掉你一半的位置 cut off half of your position
但在这方面我会非常小心的 but I'd be very careful as far as that's concerned
我会完全远离它 I would completely stay away from that
我不，我根本不考虑这个 I don't I don't look at that at all
我没有，我的屏幕上没有，我 I don't I don't have it on my screen and I've
有时候我在1000万美元里 sometimes I'm in a $10 million you know
一个平衡，我不，我不甚至 a a balance where I don't I don't even
我连看都没看一眼 I don't even look at it
有时在一天结束的时候 sometimes at the end of the day
一天结束的时候 by the end of the day
我都不知道我赚了多少 I don't even know how much I've made
说实话 to be honest
如果我真的在交易，所有东西都被偷了 if I'm really trading and everything stolen um
我有时甚至我甚至不确定我做了什么 I sometimes don't even I'm not even sure what I made
我知道一切都很顺利 I know things are going well
这样我就不用担心了，所以我就不看了 so I don't have to worry so I'm not looking
我只是在交易 and I'm just trading and
交易，建仓等等 trading and putting on positions and everything
你知道 you know
一切都在爆发，一切都在移动 things are breaking out and everything's moving
然后你知道 and then you know
一天结束的时候，我去看市场的走势 I ended the day I go what did the market do
我这里发生了什么，你知道是什么吗 what did I what happened here what you know what was
就像一个热狗摊 it's like a hot dog stand
你只是在卖热狗而已 you're just selling hot dogs you know
在一天结束的时候 and then at the end of the day
你去把它铺好，然后走 you go and you tile it up and go
看看你做了什么 see what you made
内森的问题 question here from nathan
我会强调这一点，但他 which I'll power phrase but he's
指的是波段交易 referring to when swing trading
你提到不想买 you reference not wanting to buy
超过轴心点一到2% more than one or 2% past the pivot point
他的问题是，你是否做短线交易 his question is if you're a short term trading
有多少 how much
是你愿意支付的金额吗 would be the amount that you would be willing to pay
在正确的入口上方 up above the proper entry point
所以就目前而言 so as far as
支付高于入口点的费用 paying above the entry point
对不起，我分心了 I'm sorry because I got distracted
有人发短信给我 someone texted me
一个人应该舒服的数量 the amount that one should be comfortable by
并且超过了正确的入口点 and up past the proper entry point
在短期交易中 in a short term trading
环境和摇摆交易你 environment versus swing trading you
你允许在枢轴点的右侧上方1%到2% you allow for one to 2% above the pivot point right
好吧 well
我的意思是，我试图在枢轴点购买它 I mean I'm trying to buy it exactly at the pivot point
所以我根本不想那样想 so I don't even want to think that way
你知道 you know
然后开始说，好吧，我可以允许这么多 and start saying well I can allow it this much
我正在尝试 I'm trying to get it
尽量靠近枢轴点 as close to the pivot point as possible
所以它会是 so it would be
肯定是一样的，不过这要看情况 it would be definitely the same but I mean it depends
你得算一算 you have to do the math
如果你的平均水平 if your if your average
增益是x gain is you know x
平均损失是x and your average loss is x well then
你必须后退 you have to back into
滑移对这个方程有多大影响 how much slippage is going to affect that equation
如果你在进行日内交易，你在倒卖黄牛 if you're day trading and you're scalping
那么很明显 well then obviously
你知道你不能追逐股票上涨 you know you can't go chasing stocks up
一个或2%如果你只取%的话 one or 2% if you're only taking a %
还有你的和你的 and your and your
你的损失是x your losses are x
所以你懂的都是数学 so you got it's all math you know
但不要 but don't
不管怎样，我都不想超过 either way I don't want to be much more than
你知道在枢轴上的百分之一到二 you know one percent two percent above the pivot
差不多就是这样了 that's that's pretty much it
好吧 all right
杰里 jerry
马克想过写很多传记吗 has mark thought about writing a lot of biography
要求快速 asking real quick
也许有一天 maybe someday
亲爱的德雷克问的是你今年到现在的日子 dear drake is asking what is your current year to date
损益标志 profit or loss mark
是的，我的意思是 yeah I mean again
我知道每个人都喜欢我们正在做的事情 I know everybody likes the key in on what we're doing
我们的表现是什么 what our performance is
但这无关紧要 but it's irrelevant
真的是完全无关紧要的 it really is it's totally irrelevant and
我这一整年都在告诉你我在做什么，但是 I've been telling you all year what I've been doing but
而且我做得很好 and I'm actually doing well
我最近刚在这里赚了一大笔钱 I just made a bunch of money here recently
《生活大爆炸》对我来说意义重大 bbt was huge for me
我感到非常非常沉重 I went very very heavy
事情是这样的 and here's the thing
我跟你们说的话得非常小心 I got to be very careful with what I tell you guys
你知道你们不会像我一样交易的 you know you guys are not gonna trade like me
你至少认识了新的交易员 you know new new you know new traders at least
你知道这对我来说很难 and I don't you know it's hard for me
我一直在推特上看到这个 I get this all the time on Twitter
我必须非常小心 I got to be very careful
比如说错话 you know like say one wrong thing
每个人都说你自相矛盾，伙计 and everybody's hey you contradicted yourself man
你 you're
你有手机信号，为什么要买股票 you're on a cell signal why are you buying stocks
因为我是专业人士，我能应付 well because I'm a professional and I can manage
这很好 this very well
我动作很快 and I move very quickly
整天坐在屏幕前 and in front of the screen all day
我就能在交易中反弹 and I can play a trading rally
但这并不意味着我们没有下降的趋势 but it doesn't mean that we're not in a down trend
而且我们没有手机信号 and we're not on a cell signal
同样的事情 same thing
我告诉你们要投资25% you know when I tell you guys to be 25% invested
与此同时你可能会在一个 meanwhile might go on margin you know on a
在…在…在 on a on a trade or on a
我有好几天都是这么做的 trading rally which I just did I had some days where
我真的按了 I really pressed it
持有一些大的头寸 took a few big positions
所以 so again
我不想让你们做你知道或不知道的事 don't want you guys doing that you know or not
我确实希望你这样做，我只是 well I do want you doing that I just
我不希望你这么做 I don't want you doing it
外套跟踪我 coat tailing me
我想让你自己去做 I want you to do that on your own
你凭自己的认知或专业知识就知道 you know in your own cognizance or your own expertise
如果你能做到的话 if you're able to do that
当你到达那一点时，你就会知道 you will know when you get to that point
然后你就可以推了 and you'll be able to push it and and
和 and
你知道交易头寸 you know trade around positions and
并且交易反弹，变得非常激进 and trade trading rallies and get very aggressive
尽管你知道我们可能在用手机信号 even though you know we may be on a cell signal
但就在 but in the very
但在一开始 but in the beginning
当然还有你们中的大多数 and certainly most of you
大概在这个水平 are probably at the level
你要去哪里 where you're gonna need to be
要保守得多，所以我必须 much more conservative you know so I have to
我必须非常小心，如果我知道的话 again I have to be very careful if I know
如果我告诉你我百分百在这里，你会说哇 if I tell you I'm up 100% here you'd be like wow
我得弄清楚他在干什么 I gotta figure out what he's doing
是的 yeah
但问题是你可能做不到 but the problem is is that you probably can't do it
你知道你 you know you're
你可能做不到 you're probably not gonna be able to do it
嗯嗯, uh uh and
这就是问题所在 and that's the problem and and and again
你知道的 you know uh um
我们有不同的人参加这个项目 we have all different people on this program here
我们有专业的对冲基金经理 there's we have professional hedge fund managers
他们管理着数亿美元的资金 that are managing hundreds of millions of dollars down
给一个有一万美元账户的人 to an individual who's got a $10,000 account
并且正在进行巨大的投资 and is making a huge investment
相对于他的账户规模 relative to his account size
以学为先，教育为先，这是多么广泛 to learn and put the education first that's how wide
范围 the ranges
所以 so again
你知道我，我起来了 you know I'm I'm up
我醒得很好 I'm up pretty good
现在这把椅子我涨了30% this chair right now I was up about 30%
我又攻击了大约20个 and I attacked on about another 20
所以我醒了，我醒得很好 so I'm up I'm up really good
我的耳朵很好 I'm having an excellent ear
这听起来可能很奇怪，但是 if that may sound strange but
但是再一次 but again
我们有一些非常好的贸易机会 we've had some really great trading opportunities
最近在特定 recently in particular
这种起伏变化并没有改变 that pop and drop has not changed
事实上 matter of fact
最近的涨跌是 the recent pop and drop was
比任何pop and drop都好 better than any pop and drop
我们有整个 that we had the whole
去年我赢得了美国投资冠军 last year where I won the us investing championship
所以你知道的 so a matter of just you know
快速切入这些位置 cutting quick getting in those positions
注意，你的身体还是扁平的 and mark you are still about flat
其实我有点情绪低落 I'm actually down just a little bit
但我基本上是正负几个百分点 but I've been basically plus or minus a few %
你知道 you know
前进两步 two steps forward
两个步骤后 two steps back
或者向前迈进一步 or one step forward
在这一点上后退了一步半 one and a half steps back at this point
一整年都是这样 sort of all year
只是慢慢来 just kind of taken it slow
所以我认为你的最后一点 so I think your last point though about
你知道给定的大小 you know given the size of
你认识的人太多了 there's just so many people you know in terms of
在不同的目标等等 in different goals and such
你知道，我想我在做一些事情 you know I think I'm up something like
在过去的两年半里翻了三到四倍 three or four fold in the last two and a half years
所以下降了几个百分点 so to be flat down a few %
我也没有 and I have not been
做任何短期交易 doing any of the shorter term trading
那不是我的风格 that's just not my style
所以你只需要在车道上保持舒适就可以了 so you just have to be comfortable in the lane
在这个整体的方法中 year in sort of within this overall approach
是的，我是说几年前 yeah I mean a couple years ago
我认为这是欧洲超过300%的标志 I think it was the year mark europe over 300%
我是 I was up
超过150%，我有一半的时间没有交易 over 150% and I had not traded half the entire year
有 there was
我有六个月完全没有交易 there was literally six months I didn't trade at all
这只是半年的时间 it was just half the year
所以 so again
你知道如果你 you know if you
如果你的仓位很大，你 if you're taking big positions and you're
你是你是 you're you're
你很有侵略性，你可以很快地弥补时间 you're aggressive you can make it up time very quickly
你可以退货 you can make that return
在很短的时间内 in a very short period of time
你刚刚有机会 you just had an opportunity
现在有些我们认识的人 now some people we know
你每天都会收到邮件 you know you get emails every day and
从你们 from you guys
有些人参加了《生活大爆炸》 some people were in bbt
还有一些石油股票 and a couple of these oil stocks and
然后把它打死了 then killed it
你知道，我肯定还有其他人 you know I'm sure there's other people that
我不买那些，买了下跌的那些 didn't buy those and bought the ones that went down
你知道的 you know so again
这取决于你来自哪里 it depends on where you come in
随着时间的推移，一切都会水落石出 over time it's all going to come out in the wash
一旦你得到这个 once you get this
我一直在说，但我的头寸在扩大 and again I keep saying this but my position sizing
马克里奇的仓位调整 mark richie's position sizing
我们的行为与你无关 our actions are not relevant to you
你必须有自己的风险承受能力 you've got to come up with your own risk tolerance
你自己的攻击性水平 your own level of aggression
根据你获得的牵引力 and base it on the traction you're getting
因为那是你自己经验的网 because that's the net of your own experience
你的结果就是净 your results are the net net
不仅是策略，还有你的为人 of not just a strategy but how you are
部署策略 deploying the strategy
和你的特点 and your idiosyncracies
还有你感情上做的事情 and the things that you're doing emotionally
覆盖 to override
甚至机械策略 even mechanical strategies
它们遵循移动平均线和交叉 that follow moving averages and crossovers and are
纯机械 purely mechanical
很少有人能做到 very few people ever can
他们不遵守吗 do them they don't follow them
他们质疑信号 they question the signals
发生的是突然之间他们得到了 what happens is all of a sudden they get
四到五个连续下降的信号 four or five fall signals in a row
他们不接受下一个信号 and they don't take the next signal
然后它恰好是一个伟大的信号 and then it happens to be the signal that is a great
信号，然后他们说，好吧，它起作用了 signal and then they say okay well it's working
然后他们接收下一个信号 then they take the next signal
然后信号就失效了 and then that signal doesn't work
它们到处都是 and they're all over the place
你知道，这就是结果 it's exactly what happens with this you know
这就是我们不做模范投资组合的原因 that's why we do not do a model portfolio
这是我们最不希望看到的 that's the last thing we want
我们不希望人们只是 we don't want people just
试图复制和运行一个模型投资组合 trying to copy and run a model portfolio
如果你想要的话 if you want that
有很多时事通讯可以让你这样做 there's plenty of newsletters that you can go do that
它们现在都下降了60780% and they're all down like 60,780% right now
这是真的 that's true
亚当问了一个问题 there's a question here from adam asking
你使用电子信号以及其他东西来观看吗 do you use e signal as well as something else to watch
每日图表标记 daily charts mark
实际上是马克·里奇马克·里奇 actually mark richie mark richie
哦，我不用e信号 oh I do not use e signal
我用一个贸易站 I use a trade station for
你知道实时图表，然后 you know sort of real time charting and then
史密斯市场筛选 market smith for screening
尼尔 neal
问是否每个人都是在市场底部 is asking if everyone is barish at the market bottom
那是谁? then who is it
谁被这样的藤蔓束缚着，去开始下一个新的向上攀登 who is bind in such vine to start the next new uptram
当股票开始设立机构时 when stocks start setting up institutions
机构是购买的对象 institutions are the ones that are buying
这就是 and then that's where
这有点让人困惑 it's a little confusing
因为你会认为当有群众的时候 because you would think when there's the masses
但是大多数 but the masses of
个人和大众没有购买力 individuals and the masses don't have the buying power
的购买力 the buying power
是在机构中 is in the institutions
富达独自 fidelity alone
能进去吗 can can go in there and
在高汤里做一个杯子的底部 you know and build the bottom of a cup in a in a stock
你知道在一件事上 you know in a matter
有成千上万的机构 and there's thousands of institutions
但这是制度的问题 but it's the institutions
这个列表实际上会变小 the list will actually get smaller
随着市场触底反弹 as that as the market bottoms and takes off
参与 the participation
如果你想知道有多少 if you were to see how many
参与者都在市场中 participants are in the market
参与者会变得更小 the participants would actually get smaller
在顶部，参与者变得更大 and at tops the participants get larger
所以这是反直觉的，有更多的人 so it's counter intuitive there's more people
这些机构实际上在出售 and this institutions are actually selling
到后来的力量 into that strength later on
送到那些人手里，送到那些人手里 into those hands into those masses of hands
这就是为什么分销很难 and that's why distribution is hard to
因为它发生在上升的过程中 for some to assess because it happens on the way up
配送也在上升 distribution has happens on the way up
这是我 this is something that I
从奥尼尔那里学到了很多 learned a lot from o'neill
以及我和奥尼尔一起度过的时光 and the times that I spent with o'neill personally
这就是 this was something that
我从中学到了什么 was very important that I learned from
从比尔 from bill
蕾妮在问多兰迪的波动抛售天数 renee is asking dorandy's volatile sell off days
他在看什么 what he watch for
她在跟踪名单，看里面有什么 she's following the list of names to see what's holding
方名称 up fang names
记录股票预测等 journaling predictions for stocks etc
想学什么 would like to learn what
要记而不在手 to take note of while not in the hand
使用扑克比喻 using poker metaphor
和马克里奇 and mark richie
谢谢你跑过雷区 thank you for running across a minefield
上周的比喻 metaphor last week
他们产生了共鸣 they resonated
我们在找什么 what are we looking for
我们一直在寻找同样的东西 we're looking for the same thing that we always
不要寻找不同的东西 look for nothing different
事实上，最能支撑的股票 stocks that hold up the best as a matter of fact
所以我这样做 so I'm doing this
这个免费的网络研讨会 this free webinar
下个星期的20秒，它会 next week on the 20 seconds and it's going to
标题是 the title is
如何找到 how to find
熊市中的龙头股 leading stocks in a bear market
这正是我要讲的内容 and it's precisely what I'm going to be going over
在纠正中寻找什么 what to look for in a correction
以及如何发现下一个领导者 and how to spot the next leaders
总结一下 and to sum it up
你要找的是那些支撑得最好的股票 you want to look for stocks that hold up the best
最接近的股票 stocks that are closest to
52周以来的新高 52 week highs or making 52 week highs
反弹最快的股票 stocks that have rebounded the fastest so stocks that
当你开始走出低谷的时候 when you start coming off the lows
的股票 the stocks that
最快起飞 take off the fastest
以最快的速度收复失地 and make up their lost ground the quickest
储备在正在建设的基地里 stocks that are in bases that are building
接近低的基数 bases that are near low
作弊作弊处理 cheats cheats handles
还有最近爆发的股票 and stocks that have recently broken out
从低点反弹回来了 right off the lows and are pulling back
达到突破的水平 right to the breakout levels those are the
所有你想找的东西 all the things you want to look for
你知道你在纠正 you know when you're in a correction
这就是 and that's where
我打电话给他们 I call them
我有点放弃了我要说的话 and I'm kind of giving up some what I'm going to say
而在 and in the
在研讨会和网络研讨会上 in the workshop and the webinar
但我称它们为寻找剑拇指 but I call them looking for the sword thumbs
你知道它们像剑指一样突出 you know they stick out like a sword thumb
这是俗话说的 that's the that's the saying
就像剑指一样突出 you know stick out like a sword thumb
这是好事 that's the nice thing
关于熊市，它是如此容易找到 about bear markets is that it's so easy to find
最好的名字是因为它们引人注目 the best names because they stick out
你知道他们在坚持 you know they're holding up
它们接近新高，反弹最快 they're near new highs they're rebounding the fastest
当你被录取的时候你就知道了 and you know when you're in
当一切都在上涨的时候 when everything's been going up
这是一个小 it's a little
很难把小麦和谷壳分开 harder to separate the wheat from the chaff
当一切都在走下坡路的时候 as it is when everything's going down
现在的股票真的真的很坚挺 and now the stocks that hold up really really are
看起来异常 look exceptional
现在你已经看到他们甚至到了 right now you've seen they're even getting to the
今天的能源名称甚至是xl lee the energy names today even xl lee
在这里被击中 is getting hit here
当然 and of course
到目前为止，金价已经从低点反弹回来 it is rallying back here off the low so far
但你受了很大的打击 but you took a pretty big hit
这对xli的打击很不正常 it's a pretty abnormal hit on the xli
所以石油股也在进来 so the oil stocks are even coming in
他们现在说到点子上了 they're getting to the point now where they say
你知道他们什么时候 you know when they get to
当他们突袭谷仓时，他们把所有的鸡都带走了 when they raid the barn they get all the chickens
是比尔·奥尼尔说的吗 was bill o'neill saying
我会说你知道他们什么时候 I would say you know when they
当他们突袭酒吧时，你知道他们 when they raid the bar you know they
连妓院，连钢琴师都进了监狱 even the brothel even the piano player goes to jail
你知道，所以我们 you know so we're
我们看起来好像他们把所有东西都扔了 we look it look like they were throwing everything out
你知道那个拿着洗澡水的婴儿 you know the baby with the bathwater
几次了 several times already
但我认为 but I think
你知道 you know
这是最后一次真正的投降 the final time where it really is a capitulation
可能是可能是最可怕的 could be could be the scariest
这就引出了下一个问题 that leads right to the next question actually
这是 which is
丽莎问你的是什么 lisa asking what is your
投降的标准你在寻找什么 criteria for capitulation what do you look for
你知道你在寻找一件事 well you know you're looking for one thing
如果你想谈不好的一面 if you want to talk about on the downside
你正在寻找 you're looking for
比10比1好 better than 10 to one
从下到上音量 down to up volume
有时会比这多得多 sometimes it'll be much more than that
你正在寻找 you're looking for
你知道，在音量上吹掉 a blow off you know blow off in volume
你在寻找极端消极的情绪 you're looking for extreme negative sentiment
我们已经有很多啤酒情绪了 which we already have a lot of beer sentiment
但我想看到的是 but what I like to see
当你在这种环境中 when you get in this type environment
你在熊市的明确位置和利率在哪里 where your ina bear market clearly and rates are
向上移动，这样你就有了逆风 moving up so you've got a headwind
就基本面而言，通胀令人担忧 as far as the fundamentals of concern inflation
我想看到的不仅仅是很多担当的一种情绪 I want to see not only a lot of bear a sentiment
超过正常 more than normal
比你通常在底部看到的要多 more than you would normally see in a bottom in
市场可能没有衰退或者 a market that's maybe a non recessionary or
不是一个大熊市 not a big bear market
在负利率下 with negative interest rates
但我想看看人们在做什么是一致的 but I want to see what people are doing in agreement
所以我想看到放量飙升 so I want to see the put volume spike
我要看到所有这些东西都飙升 I want to see all those things spike
基本上你知道你的第一次 and that's that's basically you know your first
第一步 the first step
但是你必须非常小心 but again you have to be very careful
这就像买了一个超卖的条件 that's like buying an oversold condition
因为你可以 because you can
你不知道你能降到多低 you don't know how low you can go
这就是人们 that was what people
很多人在2000年尝试过 a lot of people tried to do in 2000
情况变得更糟了 and it just got worse
越来越糟，越来越糟，越来越糟 and worse and worse and worse and worse
然后一直继续下去 and went on and on and on
1987 1987
就像 it was just like
一些 some of
我应该说的就像现在一样 what I should say just like was very similar to now
人们只是受条件制约 where people were just conditioned
他认为每次回调都是买入的机会 and thought every pullback was a buying opportunity
一个不同的环境是根本的，但是 a different environment is far fundamentally but
然后当所有东西看起来都被过度抛售时 and then when everything looked over sold
那是在一天又一天下跌22%之前 that was right before a 22% down day and one day
这是我不知道有多少的设备 now that's the equipment of I don't know how many
78000点，一天 78,000 points and one day
现在 now
想象一下，道琼斯指数一天下跌7.8万点 just imagine the dow is down 78,000 points in a day
你知道，想想看 you know think about that
这是可能的，你知道的 that that that is possible you know that is
我知道我们现在有断路器，但是 I know we have circuit breakers now but
你知道我们也 you know we also
我们也有一些 we also had some
那时候制定的措施都不起作用 things that were instituted back then that didn't work
所以好 so well either
如果你记得在渴望的时候做梦 and if you remember mark with dreaming during covet
它没有发生 it didn't happen
有一天，它在五天内发生了 and one day it happened during five days
你知道 you know
这可能发生得非常快 it can happen very rapidly
科瓦奇很快就是一个完美的例子 very rapidly kovac was a perfect example
差不多了吗 was this about as close to
就是我见过的那种崩溃 you know that type of crash that I've seen
在很长一段时间内 you know in a long time
如果没有断路器的话 and if we hadn't had the circuit breakers
这可能会在一两天内发生 it probably would have happened in one or two days
熔断器只是延缓了不可避免的事情 the circuit breakers just slowed the inevitable
没错，你也知道 exactly and that you know and again
你知道的，回到 you know going back to
人们总是想听 people always want to hear
你知道我的预测 you know my forecast
我的观点和我认为会发生什么 my opinion and what I think's gonna happen here
你知道我 you know I
我认为在没有经济衰退的情况下，如果我们 I think that without a recession here if we can um
如果通货膨胀能降下来 if inflation can get under
控制，不要从这里加速 control and not accelerate from here
我们可能 we're probably
这是一个很好的购买机会 putting together a really great buying opportunity here
但这是一个大问题 but that's the you know that's the big question
所以我永远不会因此而相信下跌 so I would never buy into a decline from that
但肯定 but certainly
你知道我们 you know we we
我们可以在一起 we could be putting together
这是一个很好的买入机会 a really good buying opportunity
那不是太远 that's not too far out
如果不是 and if it if not
我们已经损失惨重了 well we've got a lot of damage already
这可能需要时间 and it's probably just gonna take time
你仍然会得到一个很好的买入机会 and you're still gonna get a great buying opportunity
只是需要更长的时间 it's just gonna take longer
但你会得到很好的买入机会 but you will get the great buying opportunity
问题是它会不会发生 it's just a matter of if it's gonna happen
在接下来的几个月左右 you know in the next several months or so
也不知道明年会不会发生 or if it's gonna happen in the next year
你知道这就是全部 again you know this is all
我们已经 we're already
伤得很重 got a lot of damage
我的意思是有很多股票都在下跌 I mean there's a lot of stocks that are down
58年的规则已经扩散开来 the 58 year rule has proliferated
可能是我见过的最多的，至少你知道 probably the most that I've seen or at least you know
这是我40年来见过的一次或两次 one or two times that I've seen in 40 years
这简直是史上最烂的 this is right up there with the worst ever
这就导致了 so that that leads to
你需要注意的是 the thing that you have to be careful of is
是不要 is to not
你觉得你还会重蹈覆辙吗 think that you're going to go back into the same
领导，你需要寻找新的领导 leadership you gotta look for new leadership
我真正认为会从这件事中显现出来的东西 what I really think is going to emerge out of this
会是一个全新的领导班子吗 is going to be a whole new leadership
可能是小端中帽 and probably in small end mid caps
至少我是这么想的 that's my feeling at least
我不会放的 I won't play that
直到它露出眼睛的白色 until it actually shows the white of its eyes
但 but
小的和米格帽已经很长一段时间了 small and mig caps have been out a favor for so long
超级市值已经存在很长时间了 and the mega caps have been in for so long
人们仍然被那些超级帽所吸引 and people still gravitating to those mega caps
它让我想起了很多 it reminds me so much of
的年代 the nineties where
你知道人们一直在买 you know people just kept buying
思科，高通和微软都在走下坡路 cisco and qualcom and microsoft all the way down
年复一年 for years and years and years
他们只是保持 they just kept
买啊买，买啊买 buying them and buying them and buying them
你猜怎么着 and guess what
他们的表现落后了20年 they underperformed for two decades
其中一些公司刚刚实现收支平衡 some of them have just gotten to break even
就在最近 just recently
2000年达到顶峰 that topped in 2000
这就是为什么我认为我们现在做到了 and that's why I think we are now
也许有些人会活下来，谁知道呢 and maybe some will survive who knows
谁知道谷歌之类的 who knows of google or one of these
你知道，我说的生存，我是指他们 you know and I say survive I mean where they
他们仍然可以取得很好的进展 they can still make good headway
但最好的日子已经过去了 but the best days are over
亚马逊不会重蹈覆辙 amazon is not gonna do what it did
脸谱网和 before and Facebook and
Netflix和fang的股票认为大动作已经完成了 Netflix and the fang stocks that the big moves are done
你得去别的地方看看了 you gotta look somewhere else now
他们在寻找下一个亚马逊 they look for the next amazon
哪家公司会以较小的规模出现 which will show up as a smaller company
还有一个你不熟悉的名字 and an unknown name that you're unfamiliar
甚至可能是一个新的行业 and probably even a new industry
看，这是我们在 so look this is something we talk about in
amasser交易员程序 the amasser trader program
衍生产业 with the spinoff industries
所有这些行业都是副产品 that all these industries are all spinoffs
我有一个时间线 there's a timeline that I go through
我现在没有 I don't have it here now
但我通过了高级交易员程序 but I go through the master trader program
我怎么回去的 where I go all the way back
展示了每个行业 and show sort of how each industry
是一个 is a
从以前的行业衍生出来的新行业 new industry that spins off from a previous industry
行业组织 an industry group
这就是你未来需要寻找的东西 and that's what you need to look for here going forward
马克的问题 mark which question
它的设置 which setup
赚取你大部分的交易利润 made the majority percentage of your trading profits
是BCP的突破吗 is at the bcp breakout
否则拉回入口，谢谢 pull back entry otherwise thanks
总是vc，一切都来自BCP well it always vc everything's from bcp
所以我想说，肯定不会是回调 so I would say definitely not the pullback
现在如果你说回调，你知道我在玩 well now if you say the pullback you know I playing
Vcp正在走出回调偏见，所以 vcp's coming out of pullback bias so
我们再来看看xlle again we'll bring up xlle
这里看得很清楚 so see excellently right here
这是通过这个的拉回 that's a pull back by coming through this
12点31分，55点78分 twelve thirty one high of fifty five seventy eight
你可以这么说 so you can say that
你知道我是通过欺诈买的这个 you know I bought this through the low cheat
但如果我买了 but if I bought it
在它通过之前 prior to it getting through
12点28分，56点61分 the twelve twenty eight high of fifty six sixty one
这将是一种倒退 that would be a pullback by
但我还是从骗子那里买，所以 but I'm still buying it from the cheat so
我想说的是破绽，破绽 I would say though breakouts breakouts you know
通过VCP through from the vcp
我每次都是这么做的 is virtually what I do every single time
你回去看看我的交易 you go back and look at my trades
无论输赢，他们都来自同一个地方 winner loser they're all coming from the same
基本设置 basic setup
神奇的是，神奇的是 and and what's amazing here's what's amazing
如果你回顾一下，我已经干了40年了 if you go back I've been doing this for 40 years now
好吧，明年就是40年了 okay this next year will make 40 years
如果你一直往回走 if you go all the way back
实际上有人在YouTube上做了一个视频 there's actually a video someone did a YouTube video of
我做的股票交易 the stock trades that I did
为了赢得 to win
1997年美国投资锦标赛 the nineteen ninety seven us investment championship
我持有股票的时间要长得多 when I was holding stocks a lot longer
比我现在更爱你 than I then I do now
那完全是出于需要 just purely out of necessity back then
如果你去看，他绘制了所有的交易 if you go and you look and he plotted all the trades
把这些点放在旁边 and put the by points
你会看到它就像今天一样 you'll see that just looks just like today
今天看起来没有什么不同 it looks just like today there's no difference
很神奇的 it's quite amazing
如果我回到19世纪20年代 and if and if I go all the way back to 19 twenties
我看到了完全一样的设置 I see the exact same setup
所以如果我在19世纪20年代和好的股票图表上 so if I was in the 19 twenties and good chart stocks
我买的东西和今天买的完全一样 I would be buying exactly from around buying today
它完全是永恒的 it's it's completely timeless
这是不会改变的 and it's not gonna change
好吧 all right
尼尔问你能不能 neil is asking if you can
请做一个学习演示给我们看 please do a study session to show us
你如何 how you
工厂的贸易 plant a trade
也许可以做个交易和展示 maybe take a pass trade and show
你是如何看待它，然后植入它并执行它的 how you viewed it and then plant it and executed it
你在哪里设置了什么提醒 what alerts do you set where do you set them
你写了什么 what did you what do you write down etc
这是最简单的 okay well that's easiest
再一次 again
这些在我的书里有很多解释 these is really explained in my books pretty much
但你知道我的意思 but you know I mean
我现在就可以给你看，两分钟就能搞定 I could show you right now and they'll take 2min
bbt就是一个很好的例子 you know bbt's a perfect example
顺便说一句，我一直在追踪这个 bpt you know I was tracking this for you know
看了一会儿 watching this for a while
这当然是非常高的 this is of course a super high
阿尔法高相对强度名称 alpha high relative strength name
我们看这里 you know let's look over here
就在这里 it's over here right
我现在就开始看了 I'm starting to watch it right here
我的意思是，它正在建立一个基础 I mean it's building a base
这是横向移动 it's moving sideways
好了，这里开始收紧了 okay it's starting to tighten up here now right there
那是我第一次 that was the first time that I was
我一直在看这支股票 I was looking at this stock right here at
关于买它是5 13 about buying it was 5 13
然后它自然就出来了 and then of course it came out there
然后收紧了一点 and then it tightened up a bit better
你有这个小 and you had this little
这里有一次突破，但你被抓住了 breakout attempt right here but you got the squat
然后有一天，它进入了内部 and then you had one day where it went inside
第二天 and that next day
这就是我想看到的 this is what I like to see
你知道 you know
我最喜欢的设置是当你 my favorite setup is when you take
几乎一下子把所有东西都拿出来了 pretty much everything out all at once
从这个主元出来 so you come out of this pivot
然后你拿出高点和主点 and you take out the high and the pivot
你也可以逆转恢复 you also reversal recovery
你拿出反转恢复，然后移动 you take out the reversal recovery and you move
一天后到达新的高地 into new high ground minus one day
但你几乎把所有的补给都拿走了 but pretty much you take out all the supply
所以你要一次把所有东西都拿出来 so you're taking everything out all at one time
从这个超级高的rs coming from this super high rs
你知道名字 you know name
这些都是我自己的名字 these are the type of names that myself
否则马克·里奇会把船装满 or mark richie will load the boat
你知道我们会把船装满的 you know we'll really load the boat
当然我指的是这支股票 and sure enough I mean this stock
在很短的时间内增长了50% went up this went up 50% in just a short period of time
当然，你知道我们有一大块这个 and of course you know we got a decent chunk of this
我们增加了一点 we scaled out a bit going up
但我得到了一大块这个 but got a decent chunk of this
从正面来看 on the upside here so
这只是标准的操作程序 this is just standard operating procedure
现在我做了同样的事情 now I did the exact same thing
你去看看那些失败的股票 you go and you take a look at stocks that failed
你会发现你知道同样的事情是什么 you will see you know the same thing what is
让我们看看有哪些 let's see what are some of
这是我们经历过的最糟糕的失败 some of the worst failures that we had here
两栖的当然 amph of course
你们知道amph是另一个你们知道的，在这里 you know amph is another one where you know right here
这是我一直在观察的一个 this is one that I've been watching all the way back
其实我 I actually
在它还坚挺的时候买回来的 bought it back here when it was holding up really well
记得吗，当时市场很疲软，我说它在支撑着 remember the market was weak it was holding up I said
我的评论是，你可以搜索这个 my comments were you could probably search this
如果你回去搜索那个帖子 and if you go back and search the post
我说它看起来想要更高 I said it looks like it wants to go higher
我买了一些，价格涨了就卖了 I bought some it went higher I sold it
然后我看着这个 then I looked at this
马克里基和我都在想 markridge and I were both thinking
看起来它可能是一个关键的领导者 this looks like this could be a key leader
就在它开始的时候 and right here as it started
我在看右边 setting up this right side I'm looking
我开始想，好吧，我要找一个逐点的 starting to think okay I'm looking for a by point
然后我们就得到了这个漂亮的小薄片 and then we get that nice little sheet area
从这里开始购买 and start buying it right there
这不是 now again this is not has a
没有发育完全的右侧 doesn't have a fully developed right side
很多时候 so a lot of times
我要做的是，我要走偏位置 what I'll do is I'll go in a partial position
我希望它能变得更紧密，并建立起来 and I hope it tightens up and sets up
这个很受欢迎 this just took right off
所以我脱了一些，因为看起来像 so I took some off because that looks like
你知道 you know
它可能需要重新设置 it's gonna probably have to pull back and set that
右边 right side
事情就是这样然后就完美了 that's exactly what happened then it got perfect
这绝对是完美的画面 and that's absolutely picture perfect
是完美的 comes out perfect
巨大的体积，我是说这看起来很棒 giant volume I mean this is just looking great
这就是 this is exactly how
你必须 you have to
不要太迷恋它，不管它看起来有多好 never get too enamored no matter how good it looks
太迷恋你的 to get too enamored with your
你的进步，因为一切都可能很快改变 your progress because it could all change very quickly
第二天你又告诉我，没有 the next day was your tip off here it did not
等一下，然后砰的一声 hold up and then bang
你看，我是说，就是这样 look at that I mean just that's it
所以 so
这个VCP也有同样的想法 same exact thinking coming from that vcp
寻找购买负荷表，欺骗手柄 looking to buy the load sheet the cheat the handle
总是在上涨的时候买入 always buying on the way up
一遍又一遍地重复同样的事情 same thing over and over and over
什么都没有改变什么都没有改变 nothing changes nothing changes
没有，有很多种类 there's no there's some varieties
有一些品种可以做到这一点 there are some varieties to do this from
有时候我会更有创意一点 sometimes I'm being a little more creative
LRN是另一个失败得很惨的 and an lrn was another one that failed miserably
你知道的更多一点 little bit more you know
这里没有那么严格 less stringent right here
我想再过几天再看看 and I would have liked to see in a few more days
我要增加一些日常供应 and I was going into a bit more overhead supply here
这又是一个 so again this was one where
我们一开始就谈妥了，但后来 it did work out right off the hop but then
你知道不能从那里出来 you know couldn't come out through that
这贯穿了整个设置过程 that follow through setup
这是另一个巨大的失败 another colossal failure there
我的意思是，这可以告诉你市场 I mean this is what tells you the markets
这些是他们给我们的线索 now these were the tip offs these gave us
注意这是怎么发生的 and notice how this happened
这三天真是太糟糕了 last three days have been pretty bad
但这是四天前的事了 but this was four days ago right
然后你回到这里 and anph you go back here
四天前就在这里，然后当然 you know it right here four days ago and then of course
三天前，你在这里遇到了一个大失败 three days ago you have this big failure here
PRCT今天下跌了14% prct is down 14 % today
试着在这里爆发，你看，撑不住了 try to break out here you see can't hold up
如果你运行 if you run
我警告你，你会发现你违规了 mon alert you'll see that you're getting violations
你开始看到计数 you start seeing the count
不积极的 is not positive
当然，现在你已经跌破50了 and now you're breaking down of course below the 50
你会看到所有的违规，然后他们就开始了 you'll see all the violations and they'll just start
像大拇指一样伸出来 sticking out like a sore thumb
再一次添加两个标记名，如PRCT或MPH once again just to add two marker name like prct or mph
如果我们你知道我们是否真的触底了 if we you know if we really had bottomed
你知道我们在说嘿 you know we were saying hey
距离低点还有10到12天 we're 10 12 days off the lows
那些名字应该很受欢迎的 those names should have just really taken off
这就是 and that's where
你知道 you know
当我们看到这些逆转时，甚至在上周中期 when we saw those reversals even sort of mid last week
我们是 we were
我们说 we were saying
做好准备，因为这不是我们想看到的 be prepared because this is not what we want to see
然后果然 and then sure enough
这些名字中有很多都是垫底的 the bottom just dropped out on a lot of these names
是的，当我看到这样的动作时 yeah when I see action like this
在你爆发的地方增殖 proliferate where you break out
你从首次公开募股中走出来，你的表现很好 you come out of an ipo base you hold up nice
看起来完美 it's looking perfect
然后你会得到这种类型的生育 and then wamo you get this type of autility
一股两股 okay one stock two stocks
但是你开始看到 but you start seeing
它开始在你的胆道上扩散 this starts proliferating across your bilist
奔向山丘 run for the hills
这意味着你有麻烦了 this is this means you got problems
你知道市场不对 you know the market is not right
这都在你的 that's all in your
不管你的选择有多好 and no matter how good your selection is
不管你的切入点有多好 no matter how good your entry points are
没用的 they're not gonna work
他们不会成功的 they're not going to work
现在时机不对 the time isn't right
又是股票反馈 it's again stocks feedback
你得到了反馈 you get the feedback
你进行了购买 you placed the buys
你会得到反馈 you get that feedback
这让你知道你是否应该投放更多 and that lets you know if you should be placing more
如果你要更激进一点，我同意 buys if you should be getting more aggressive
这就是反馈 and that's the feedback
现在你不需要买东西了 now you don't have to place the buys
你可以很容易地观看并进行一些投球 you could very easily watch and take some pitches
你们可以看一下这个 and you could have just watched this
看一下这些名字 and watch some of these names
但是钱在这里 but see here's the money
早上好，四分卫进来了 morning quarterback and comes in
当然 then of course
你采用了这种方法，一切就都起飞了 you take that approach and everything takes off
现在你会想哦我错过了 and now you're like oh I missed it
我本应该这么做的 I should have could have
这些都是你必须要做的选择 see again those are choices you have to make
你不能像马克·米纳维尼那样 you can't just do what mark minervini does
因为这只是 because that just
这可能达不到你自己的风险承受能力 that might not meet your own risk tolerance
或者是你自己的直觉 or your own what your own gut can handle
你必须 you've got to
做出你的动作和你的渐进动作 make your moves and your incremental moves
在某种程度上 in a way that
对你来说是有道理的 makes sense to you and that
你能控制情绪，还有 that you can handle emotionally and that
你可以承担风险 you can handle the risk
所以 so
我要进去看看这些装置 I'm going to go in there and I see these setups
我要进去买了 I'm going to go in and I'm going to buy them
我看到了越来越多的机构 I see setups proliferating
事实上，我希望我被吓死 matter of fact I hope I'm scared to death
我希望我的肠子在流血，我好害怕 I hope that my gut is bleeding I'm so scared
市场太糟糕了 the market's been so bad
我很怕买到他 and I'm terrified to death to buy him
我的直觉告诉我，这玩意根本不管用 and my gut saying no way are these gonna work
那就是我给他们买最大的 that's when I'm buying them the biggest
因为那可能是我们被监视的地方 because that's where we're probably watched out
我得说，这次不是这样的 you know that wasn't the case this time I have to say
我没那么害怕 I wasn't that scared
我在想 and I was thinking that
我对这些很有信心 I was pretty confident on these
又或许 and again maybe
也许下次你就知道了 maybe next time you know
我会很害怕，它会 well I will be terrified and it'll
现在是买它们的好时机 it'll be the right time to buy them
但不管怎样我都会买 but I'm gonna buy them either way
不管我是乐观还是 whether I'm optimistic or
或者我pestimistic or I'm pestimistic
我要跟着图表走，我要买下来 I'm gonna follow the charts and I'm gonna buy them
我就 I'll just
你知道，再一次回到贪心的低谷 you know once again go back to off the covet lows
你知道 you know
马克·里奇打电话给我，问我们在这里做什么 mark richie called me and said what do we do here
股市大幅上涨 stocks are breaking out
我说我们买下来 I said we buy them you know
我们都认为我们几乎可以确定 and we were both thinking we were almost certain
他们不会成功的 that they weren't gonna work
我们就像我们知道他们不会成功一样 we were like we know they're not gonna work
我们知道我们会被拦在这里 we know we're gonna get stopped out here
这看起来很可怕 this is horrible looking
但是设置在那里 but the setups are there
我们会买，我们会咬紧牙关 we're gonna buy and we're gonna bite the bullet
发生了什么，马克 and what happened mark
你发财了 you made a fortune
很多很多很多很多很多钱 a lot of money a lot of money
是的,我们 yeah we
有一个美丽的 had a beautiful
宽松的美元环境由此而来 easy dollar environment that came out of that
杰瑞德问你有没有快速获利 jared's asking if you ever take profits quick
更迅速地说一次你的风险甚至更低 more quickly say at one times you're risk or even less
在最近的反弹中 during the recent rally
他的一些仓位上涨了48% he was up 48% on a few positions
但它们最终变成了亏损 but they eventually turned into losses
或者你只是积极地调整你的步伐 or do you just adjust your steps aggressively
快速降低你的风险 to quickly lower your risk
两者都可以 you can do both
你知道这真的取决于如何 you know it's really again it depends on how
这取决于你想怎么做 it depends on how you want to approach it
你可以接近它 you can approach it
你知道如果你想，你可以做到 multi prongs you know if you want you can do it
你可以两者都做一点 you can do a little of both
如果你想加止损 if you want to raise your stop
你可以提高停车速度，然后开始停车 you can raise your stop and start choking off the stop
最终实现收支平衡 and eventually get it to break even
卖出你的部分收益，这将为你的止损提供资金 sell part of your gain and that will finance your stop
你看，我对是否 you see I make an assessment of whether
我想继续做这一行吗 do I want to stay in this trade
这是我想要投资的股票吗 is this a stock that I want to try to stay in
我有多想继续持有这只股票 how bad do I want to stay in this stock
如果这是开始 well you know if it's the beginning of a
牛市或者从熊市中走出来 bull market or you're coming off of a bear market
这是一个首次公开募股的基地，它有巨大的收益，我 and it's a ipo base and it's got a huge earnings and I
感觉这可能是一个关键的领导 feel like this could be a key leader
我可能想卖掉我的部分职位 I might want to just sell part of my position at
5%或10% a five or 10%
因为我想给它足够的空间 gain because I want to give it the room to be able
让它波动 to let it fluctuate
并保持句号 and keep that full stop
现在金融是我的话题 so now that finance is my stop
我想要一半的位置 and I'd rather have a half position
在一个潜在的新领导 in a potential new leader than
满仓，冒着被停球的风险 full position and risk getting stopped out
然后把它掐掉 and choke it off
这是一种方法这是一种方法 so that's an approach that's an approach
另一种方法是 another approach could be to
你可以你可以把你知道的一切都卖掉 you can you can sell the whole thing you know and
你的你的方法 and your your approaches to
转手，短线交易 turn over and trade short term
另一种方法是 another approach would be to
打住，争取大的位置 choke it off and go for the big position
但要提高到收支平衡 but bring it up to break even
一旦它起床 once it gets up
也许它能通过第一个煤回来 maybe it gets through that first coal back
这是自然反应 goes to a natural reaction
达到新的高度 gets to new highs
现在你做到收支平衡了 now you bring it to break even
然后你把它掐掉，现在你会有一个 and you choke it off and now you're going to have a
你知道有更高的境界 you know there's a higher
阻止你出局的机会 chance of it stopping you out
因为你已经移动到更远的地方 because you've moved to stop up further
但是你的这个被你的双份抵消了 but your that's being offset by you have a double
如果你做对了，就会收获 gain if you get it right
看，这取决于你想怎么处理它 see it depends on how you want to approach it
没有固定的方法 and there is not a set way
有一些固定的方法，我给你一个剧本 there are set ways and I'm giving you a playbook of
各种各样的方法和工具 variety of ways and tools to do it
但你必须做出决定 but you've got to make that decision
以及你打算如何处理这笔交易 and how you're going to approach the trade
这是一门艺术 this is an art
这里面有很多科学，但这是一门艺术 there's a lot of science to it but this is an art
很多都是文体上的，都是 a lot of it is stylistic and it's all it all
是由你的风险承受能力驱动的吗 is driven by and stems from your risk tolerance
这是关键 that's the key
关键是你的个人风险承受能力和你的目标 the key is your personal risk tolerance and your goals
我的意思是如果你的目标是今年赚20% I mean if your goal is to make 20% this year
这很容易做到 you can do that pretty easily
你可以做短期交易 you know you can short term trade
守门员停得非常非常紧 keeper stops really super super tight
一整年都很少交易 hardly ever trade the entire year
可以给我20%吗 and may I make 20%
我每年可以赚20% I can make 20% every year
也许在我的余生里每年都是，如果我 probably every year for the rest of my life if I
如果，如果我想 if if I want to
你知道这对我来说不是什么大目标 you know um that's not a big goal for me
我可能不需要交易 and I don't have to trade probably
你知道 you know
用半年或者三分之二的时间来做 half the year or two thirds of the year to do that
如果你的目标是 if your goal is to make
当美国投资冠军的时候 hundreds of % when the us investing championship
你知道 you know
有人在第一季度涨了200% and there's guys in there up 200% in the first quarter
你得表现得很有攻击性 you're gonna have to be pretty aggressive
你得占据很大的位置 you're gonna have to take huge positions
你必须在里面 you're gonna have to be in there
挥着球棒不停地投球 swinging the bat at a lot of pitches
冒着风险，你知道这很简单 and taken risk you know it's that simple
每个人的目标都是不同的 so again everybody's goals are different
有些人是满意的 some people are happy with
如果他们每年能赚15% if they were to make 15% of year
他们是相关的 they're related
这是伟大的 and that's great
那太好了，我们可以帮你实现 that's wonderful and we can help you get there
还有其他人想要 and there's other people who want
成为世界上最伟大的叛徒 to be the greatest traitor in the world
他们想要 and they want to
你知道，人们告诉我他们今年想要1000% you know people tell me they want to be 1000% this year
太好了，你能做到，这是可能的 that's great you could do that that's possible
这当然是可能的 that's certainly possible
你必须要接近它，你知道 you have to get you have to approach it you know
不过有一点不同 a little bit differently though
杰瑞提到的5月27日，你提到过 jerry's mentioning on may 27th you mentioned
对低期限风险模型 on low term risk model to
在sb 500中加入25 - 50% pug 25 to 50% of that into the sb 500
他做了25% he did 25%
问你是否认为现在是另一个机会 asking if you think now is a chance for another
增量增加 incremental increase
我想我现在还不想 I would I would not right here just yet
我个人更愿意 personally I would rather
支付更高的 pay higher
把它放在更高的位置，确保 and put it in higher and get some assurance that
你知道市场有可能 you know the market has maybe
放一份投降声明，然后猜猜看 put in a capitulation and try to guess
你知道你已经做过了 you know you've already made that
我已经做过了 I've already made that
根据25%的违约判决 that by the defaulting knife decision on 25%
如果我们倒下了，你不会知道的 and that's not gonna you know if we go down
如果SMP下降 if the smp even goes down
另外百分之二十 another twenty percent
投资了25% and twenty five percent invested
这不会造成那么大的下降 it's not going to create that big of a drawdown
然后你就有了一个很好的机会 and then you would have a really good opportunity to
以更低的价格买入 buy it much lower
所以我会留意 so I would look to
它不会增加多少 it's not going to incrementally add much what is that
那对你有什么用 what is that gonna do for you
你已经涂上去的地方 where you already put it on
你低了多少 how much lower are you
这能降低多少你的平均成本 how much is that gonna lower your average cost
你必须考虑到这一点 you have to think about that
没多少，所以没必要冒这个险 not much so there's no reason to take that risk
如果你要加上 if you were to add
这里或加比您以前支付的更高 here or add higher than when you previously paid
不管怎样，都不会 either way it's not going to really
改变你的平均成本 change your average cost by very much
然而，如果市场再下跌15% however if the market was to go down another 15 %
这将大大改变你的平均成本 that would change your average cost quite a bit
特别是如果你加上 especially if you added
你知道，超过25%你有50% you know more than 25% you had a 50% there
所以我会等待更大幅度的下跌 so I would wait for either a bigger decline
或者更有把握地说我们已经触底了 or for more assurance and that we've bottomed and then
在上涨的时候买入 for the timing to buy it on the way up
所以我就不再加了 so I would not add anymore
不,还没有 no not yet
是的，今天SMP刚刚突破了上个月的低点 yeah the smp just taken out the last month's low today
真正低于20%的门槛 truly getting below the 20% threshold
如果我们从最近的高点收在这里 if we were to close here from the recent high
新来的这位在培训市场上询价。 new b here is asking in a down training market
你是否考虑过 would you ever consider
交易1对1逆etf trading at one to one inverse etf
就像做空市场的一种方式 like sh as a way to short the market
当然，如果你想做空市场 well certainly if you want to short the market
但你知道我 but you know I've
是的，你可以这样做 yes you can do that
但我不会告诉你的 but I'm not telling that
并不是说我在做空市场 it's not saying I'm saying the short the market
我只是想 I just want to make
说得非常清楚 make it perfectly clear
我不是说做空市场 I am not saying the short the market here
如果你还记得的话 short at the market if you remember
我被拦住了 and I got stopped out
但现在是做空市场的时候 but the time to short the market
我甚至不知道它是否还在图表上 I don't even know if it's still on the chart here
让我们看看 let's see
你带出圣人标记 you bring out the sage mark
这里有个小作弊 let's see there was a tiny little cheat there
好的，让我快速讲一下 okay but let me just real quick
我马上就会给你们看 I'll show that in just a second
所以第一个横线标记就是 so right here on that first hash mark is where
我们收到了手机信号 we went on a cell signal
那是一个风险模型手机信号 that was a risk model cell signal
第二天就在那里 the next day right there
这就是我做空的地方 that's where I short it
现在回过头来看，我们可以从中得出一些结论 now in hindsight a few things we can glean from this
看看这些潜在的不利因素 look at all that downside potential
我们已经走了很长一段路，现在做空了两个上限 we've come a long way now shorting here two caps down
不，我不这么认为 no I don't think so
Stanley druckam miller最近说过 stanley druckam miller just said recently
我认为是在熊市做空 shorting in a bear market I think
我不确定他说的是不是熊市后期 I'm not sure if he said late stage in a bear mark
我们说过在熊市做空是 we said shorting in a bear market is a
这是一个让你损失一大笔钱的好方法吗 is a good way to lose a ton of money
因为空头回补会让你颜面尽失 because short covering rally is can rip your face off
当我做空指数时，几乎总是这样 I short when I short the index is it's almost always
当他们经历了前所未有的高潮 when they're coming off of making all time highs
他们才刚刚开始翻身 and they're just starting to roll over
我想要那种巨大的下行潜力 I want that huge downside potential
可能会熔毁或者 of a potential for a meltdown or
进入熊市 going to a bear market
现在发生的是我的索引错了 now what happened was I was in the wrong index
我们来了，却被拦住了 here we came and we got stopped out
回到这里，达到新的高度 coming back up here into new highs
我没读短，我快读到这里了 and I didn't read short I almost reached it right here
但我很小心 but I'm very careful
因为如果我把你们赶出去 because if I whip you guys in and out
你会感到气馁，然后放弃 you get discouraged and you quit
所以我 so what I
再说一遍，我所做的不一定适合你 again what I would do doesn't necessarily work for you
就像这里，这是我回去和短 like here this is where I go back and short
然后我在最高点停了下来 and then I put a stop right at the high
它会完美地工作 and it would have worked perfectly
我都不记得我有没有做过 and I can't remember if I even did that
我可能还会再做空 I might have even short it again
我不记得是否做空了 I can't remember if I short it
但底线是，你知道如果我 but bottom line is you know if I
我还会做很多次 and I'll do this you know several times I mean
我可能会被拦在这里 I might even get stopped out here
你还能再翻一次身 and you get one more roll over
我可能会连续试三四次 I might try it three four times in a row
但如果我把它发布出去，我们就会 but what happens is if I post that and we keep
我总是把你抽进抽出 and I keep whipping you in and out
进，出，出，出 in and out in and out
你觉得这家伙烂透了你知道这个系统烂透了 you're like this guy sucks you know this system stinks
我为什么要这么做，我刚刚连续输了四次 why did I ever do this I just lost four trades in a row
这就是发生的事情 this is what happens
我们从成千上万的人那里知道 we know we know from thousands and thousands of people
你知道做这个 you know doing this
我不能那样鞭打你们 I cannot whip you guys around like that
就像你知道我会去那些地方一样 like you know I would take those stops
我用数学计算出来的 I mathematically figuring it out
很多时候我们会收到人们的电子邮件 and again a lot of times we have people email us
他们都很生气 and they're all bent out of shape
他们最近五次交易都赔了 that they lost in the last five trades
他们就像 and they're like
你知道，就像一场灾难 you know like it's a disaster
然后波波说，我只是好奇 and then bobble said well I'm just curious
你损失了多少钱 how much did you lose
他们说我跌了3% and they're like I'm down 3%
他们心烦意乱 and they're upset
你知道，所以这就是你知道的地方 you know so this is where you know
我们得非常小心，宝贝，我跑题了 we got to be really careful baby I'm digressing
我想要指出的一点是 I want the point I want to point out was
如果你现在看najdac if you look at the najdac now
看看这里的纳斯达克 you look at the nasdaq here
看到了吗，我会握得很好 see that that I would have held nice
s和p就像纳斯达克 about the s and p that act like the nasdack
所以我的索引是错误的 so I was you know I was in the wrong index of course
你知道，我猜线索让我们看看线索 you know I guess the cues let's see if the cues
是啊，看，球杆应该还在 yeah see the cues would have held
会不会一直保持高位 would it held that that all time high stop
但是，但是，sup并没有 but but the sup did not
这就是 so that's that's where
这就是我做空的地方 that's where I was shorting
现在离那里还很远 it's a long way from there now
在大幅下跌的前一天 one day before the big decline
大幅下跌的前一天 one day before big decline
增加了总资本的20% increased a 20% of total capital
结果损失了约1%的总资本 as the result lost about 1% of total capital
并在6个月内输掉了自10月21日以来的所有游戏 and six months lost all games made since October of 21
你的建议是什么? what is your advice
很抱歉是这样写的 I'm sorry that's how it's written
我是说，我不知道你的情况 yeah I mean I don't know your circumstances
除了你告诉我你还给了我 other than you're telling me that you gave back
我不知道你是怎么做到的我不知道 everything I don't know how you did it I don't know
我都不知道你是不是我们的客户了 I have no idea if you're even a client of ours then
但我的建议是做我们每天都在做的事 but my advice is to do what we do every day
我的恶习没有改变 my vice doesn't change
所以公正 so justly
伙计们，你们的情况会改变的 understand guys your circumstance is it gonna change
不管你是跌了90%还是涨了100%我都会做什么 what I do whether you're down a 90% or your up 100%
不会改变我的市场策略 isn't gonna change how I approach the market
你知道，人们认为我很沮丧 you know people think well I'm down
你知道 you know
我持有这些股票，但它们下跌了50% I held these stocks and they're down 50% you know
你会怎么做 what would you do
我们现在不能卖，不，我会卖 we can't sell now right no I would sell
看，看，首先，我不会在那个位置 see see first of all I wouldn't be in that position
如果我处在那个位置，我会纠正它 and if I were in that position I would correct it
我对生活和交易的态度是 my approach to life and to trading is
是我意识到我犯了错误的那一刻吗 is the minute that I recognize that I made a mistake
我改正它 I correct it
不要把错误加在一起，造成误会 don't compound the mistake and make that mist
我有我有一些朋友 I have I have friends of mine that I've been
让他们滚出市场 tell them to get out of the market
从10月22日开始，他们 since the day of October 22nd and they
有几个朋友 have several friends
非常要好的朋友，他们还没卖出去 very close friends and they haven't sold
他们还没有退出市场 they haven't got out of the market
他们一直用同样的原理 and they keep using that same rationale
为什么现在不能卖 why can't sell now
但他们失意的时候也会这么对我说 but they started saying that to me when they were down
百分之五和百分之十 five and ten percent
他们下降了二三十 down they were down twenty and thirty
所以我现在不能卖 so I can't sell now
我说可能是30%或40% I said well maybe at 30 or 40%
你知道你现在会很乐意出售的 you know you'll be happy to sold now
然后下降了30%到40% and then they're down thirty percent forty percent
我现在不能卖 I can't sell now
你知道 you know
这就是为什么一个晚上会有80%的下降 that's how a night that's how an 80% decline happens
你的账户就是这么爆的 that's how you blow your account up
事情就是这样发生的 that's exactly how it happens
你用的是相同的复合材料 you're using your compounding you're using the same
轻率的行为让你惹上了麻烦 rash now that got you in trouble in the first place
你试图把它作为一个解决方案来应用 and you're trying to apply it as a solution
这是不合逻辑的 it's illogical
让你陷入困境的想法不会让你脱身 the thinking that got you there isn't gonna get you out
你必须有不同的思维方式 you have to have different thinking
否则 otherwise
你一开始就不会处于那种境地 you wouldn't be in that position in the first place
所以如果你真的倒下了，或者你回馈了很多 so if you are in fact down or you've given back a bunch
你在努力申请 and you're trying to apply
逻辑是 logic that is
我现在该怎么办 what do I do now
你知道，并认为这是不同的 you know and think that it's different
规则会改变，因为那个标记 that the rules are gonna change because the mark
市场不知道你在走下坡路 the market doesn't know you're down
它不关心 and it doesn't care
这就是数学 okay this is math
数学就是数学，风险就是风险 math is math risk is risk
风险必须得到管理 risk has to be managed
不管你是否下降了百分之九十 whether you're down ninety percent
50% 10% fifty percent ten percent
必须以同样的方式来管理风险 the risk has to be managed the same exact way
这就是我对你的回答 and that that's my answer to you you know
从正确的方式开始 start doing it the right way
做我们所做的 do what we do
管理你的手腕 manage your wrist
你遵守所有的规则，重新开始 you do all the rules and start over
按下复位键，重新开始 hit the reset button and start over
然后开始做正确的事情 and start doing it right
否则你就只能待在这里了 otherwise you're just gonna be right where you are now
你会再回来的 you'll be there again
这是，这是一个保证 that's a that's a guarantee
顺便说一下，约瑟夫正在匹配一个新客户 joseph is matching as a new client by the way
因此，欢迎他进入anoc交易 so welcome he entered anoc trade on
5月24日 May 24
我们有10%的仓位可以使用交错止损 with us with a 10% position to use this staggered stop
在6月2日被拦下 got stopped out of half on June 2nd
然后把位置调到15% then bump the position to a 15% position
6月3日，4点77分 on June 3rd at four seventy seven
3日好是的 3rd okay yep
所以他的下一个 so his next
他的问题是我买的太长了 his question was I buying too extended on the 2nd bump
我的逐步曝光是不是太快了 was I'd being too quick with the progressive exposure
如果我没有其他特征上的积压利润 if I did not have backlog profits on the other trait
我觉得你打得比较好 I think you played it relatively well
你知道你的攻击性是 you know as far as your aggressiveness that's a
这是一个 that's a
这必须由你自己来决定 something that you have to determine for yourself
你想要多有侵略性 of how aggressive you want to be
没有积压利润 without having backlog profits
你知道这是 you know it's
这也是你必须要做的决定 again that's a decision you have to make
如果你想挑衅的话 if you want to get aggressive
听着，你也可以通过一些方法来做到这一点 look there's a few ways too that you can do this
你可以 you can
当你第一次进入市场的时候 you know when I say when you first enter the market
我要做的是获得25%的投资 what I try to do is get up to 25% invested
类似的东西 something like that
如果我准备好了，就尽快告诉你 you know as quickly as possible if I have the setups
但有时会出现在一只股票中 but sometimes that'll be in one stock
我只需要一个名字占25%的位置 I'll just take a 25% position in one name
而不是其他时候 as opposed to other times
我可能持有五个名字的5%的股份 I might take a 5% position in five names
你可以用任何一种方法得到它 so you can get there either way you know
,一个是 and one is
显然比另一个更有攻击性 obviously a little more aggressive than the other
但我觉得你 but I think you're
我们知道我们真的是在吹毛求疵 we know we're really splitting hairs here
我觉得你处理得很好 I think you handled it very well
你知道，也许现在你回来了 you know and probably now that you came back here
你知道 you know
你提高了它，并持有更大的仓位规模 you ratcheted it up and took a bigger position size
我可能会更快 I'd probably be quicker to
拉回 pull back
现在你回来了，你知道也许 and now that you come back here you know maybe
减回原来的仓位大小 cut that back to that original position size
也许现在回到那10%然后再配对回去 maybe go back to that 10% now and pair it back
因为你很明显 because you're obviously
我们没有得到反馈 we're not getting the feedback that we
这是我们想要的 that we wanted from the position
当然也来自市场 and certainly from the market
好吧 all right
在你的决策中标记 mark in your decision making
在这个过程中，你是否使用过一个谨慎的动作 process do you ever make use of a measured move
如 such as
b等于CD来定义风险奖励比率 a b equaling CD to define your risk award ratio
永远不要那样做 never do that ever
我知道 I know
你知道，一个谨慎的举动就像 you know a measured move would just simply be like
有些人可能不知道 for those of you don't know
如果你在这里取底的深度 if you were to take right here the depth of the base
然后往下到你想测量的地方 and go down to wherever you want to measure
我们只需要测量你的15% and we're just going to measure down to your 15%
当它爆发的时候 saying that when it breaks out
目标是最高15% the target is 15% to the top
我个人 I personally
不管是谁想出来的，我觉得他是个白痴 whoever came up with that I think that was a moronic
评估 assessment
因为，我来告诉你们原因是 because and I'll tell you the reason why is because
建立在一个基地里的股票 a stock that sets up in a base
越紧 the tighter it is
所以你说你处于一个空荡的市场 and so you say you're in a bare market
你有这个漂亮的 and you have this nice
紧密的基础在上升趋势 tight base in an uptrend
所以你在想15% so you're 15% you're thinking
目标是15% the target is 15%
这种紧密的基础是最具爆炸性的 that tight base are the ones that are most explosive
这告诉你这只股票是最强的 that's telling you that the stock is strongest
而且会有更大的动作 and will have the bigger move
跌了50%的那个 the one that's down 50%
他们的观点是，跌得更多的那个 the argument is that the one that's down more
有更多的好处 has more upside
绝对 absolutely
就像你说的那样，绝对是低音笨拙 absolutely bass awkwards as you would say
绝对向后 absolutely backwards
所以我从来不用这个词 so I don't use that ever no
好吧嗯 all right uh
Line只是在解决我们如何设置止损 line is just addressing how we set the stop loss
指向所有的股票 point for all the stocks
然而，我们如何处理像今天这样的缺口市场 however how do we deal with the gap markets like today
你得到你得到你有滑动 you get you get you have slippage
这就像你有滑动一样简单 and that's as simple as that you have slippage
你知道这将会发生 you know that's going to happen
但这是不会发生的 but it's not going to happen
频繁 that frequently
一次又一次 and again
如果你使用渐进式曝光，你 if you're using progressive exposure and you're
你用你的 you're using your
尊重风险 respecting risk
先进去，别太急着进攻 going in and not getting too aggressive too quickly
你应该在任何一种光线下 you should be at either light exposure
所以这些缝隙是光暴露还是 so those gaps are on light exposure or
如果你处于重度暴露状态 if you're on heavy exposure
因为你有利润 it's because you have profits
现在 and now
同样，它不会有那么大的影响 again it's not going to be had that much impact
看看什么时候使用渐进式曝光 see when you use progressive exposure
马克你真的应该和这个谈谈，因为 and mark you really should talk to this because
这很重要 this is so important
当使用停止和渐进式曝光相结合时 when you use stops and progressive exposure together
你的定位是正确的 and you're positionizing properly
你真的 you are really
永远不会有什么麻烦，或者 never gonna be in a situation or
非常非常非常罕见你的 very very very rarely where your
你的你的鼻子是张开的你真的 your your your nose is open and that you're in a really
一个缺口会伤害到你的危险情况 risky situation that a gap is going to hurt you
因为你没有提高曝光率，直到你已经 because you haven't raised exposure until you already
为风险融资 have financed that risk
这就是整个 that's the whole
这是来自 and that's coming from
风险第一的方法源于总是把风险放在第一位 a risk first approach from always thinking risk first
永远不会得到 and never ever getting
在没有遮挡的情况下暴露自己 getting yourself to expose without covering yourself
现在 now
有时你了解你自己 sometimes you know you
你，你，你把自己抬高，然后 you you know you you ratchet yourself up and
你会有糟糕的一天 you get a bad day
一切都对你不利 and everything moves against you
你受到的打击比 and you take a little bit bigger hit than
你知道你计划的 you know you planned for
但它不应该是这么大 but again it shouldn't be this you know colossal
导致你的账户大幅下降的问题 problem that causes this big decline in your account
如果你在使用这些策略 if you're using those tactics
均匀 homogeneously
我 I
希望我能解释清楚，但是马克 hope I'm explaining it properly but mark
你又知道 you know again
你经常会在什么地方陷入困境 how often do you get yourself caught in a gap where
即使你已经完全投入了 even when you're fully invested
或者在边缘处 or on margin where a
空档市场突然把你炸了 gapping market all of a sudden torpedoes you
以至于 to the point where
你知道这是过度的风险或它的原因 you know it's excessive risk or it's cause
你知道的 you know a damaging
减少你的 decline in your
在你的投资组合 in your portfolio
是的，这从来没有发生过 yeah that's never happened in terms of
一个空缺的一般市场 a gapping general market
因为在好的市场 and because in good markets
再次使用进步的 again using progressive
正确曝光 exposure properly
你就是没有 you just don't have that
或者你开始在个股中看到它 or you start seeing it in the individual stocks
过去的五天是很好的例子 this last five days are really good example guys
如果你不 if you didn't
如果你对这些警告有过激反应 if you heated any of the warnings
你被挡在外面了 you were stopped out of
即使你知道 even at you know
十百分之十五百分之二十的暴露 ten fifteen twenty percent exposure
你可能被排除在大多数名字之外了 you were probably stopped out of most of the names
在今天之前 before today
绝对是的 yeah absolutely
现在 well now
我们今天早上去800镇怎么样 what do we cap town 800 this morning or something
你知道我有现金 you know I'm in cash
这有什么关系 what does it matter
你知道最可怕的时候是 you know when it gets the scariest is when
通常如果你这样做的话 usually if you're doing this
我不该说"通常"总是在最可怕的时候 I shouldn't say usually always when it gets scariest
如果你做得对 if you're doing this properly
你可能已经有好几天现金了 you've probably been sitting in cash for days
几周，甚至几个月 weeks maybe even months
因为你在关注股票 because you're following the stocks
另一边也一样 and the same goes on the other side
我知道你们很多人都是新来的 I know a lot of you guys that are new
对此持怀疑态度 are skeptical of this
我之前也是 I was as well early on
你是说你只关注股票，而不关注 you mean you just follow the stocks and you don't
注意这些索引 you know watch these indexes
如果怀疑范围缩小到1000或 and what happens if the doubt gaps down 1000 or
在非常好的市场 well in really good markets
这不会发生，因为 that doesn't happen because
甚至还有常规的出价 there's regular bids even
市场可能会下跌一个百分点 the market might gap down a %
但你的股票却没有 but your stocks don't
或者如果它马上就会被购买 or if it's immediately met with buying
我还没遇到过这种情况 I don't think I've ever had a situation where
市场普遍差距缩小 the general market gap down
当我全身心投入的时候，我被打败了 when I was fully invested and I got clobbered
你知道的，在一堆名字经过站点 you know on a bunch of names going through stops
唯一的时间是个股 the only time would be on an individual stock
可能是一份收益报告，也可能是一则坏消息 maybe an earnings or a bad news announcement
但是你知道 but you know again
这种情况时不时会发生 that's going to happen from time to time
这就是为什么你有相应的仓位大小 which is why you got a position size accordingly
所以在我的职业生涯中 so over my career
我问我自己 I've asked myself
我一生都在努力工作 I worked very hard my whole life at
试着养成习惯 trying to get into the habit of
或者养成习惯 or getting into the habit of
总是问一些试图避免的好问题 always asking good questions to try to avoid
我并不总是避免问糟糕的问题 I don't always avoid asking a bad question
有时候你会不小心加了一个糟糕的问题 sometimes you accidentally add a bad ask a bad question
但我试着 but I try to
用我能听懂的方式来表达我所有的问题 phrase all my questions in a way where I get
给我有力的答案，否则我就得到解决方案 empowering answers or I get solutions
在我的职业生涯中我问过自己一些问题 and I've asked myself a few questions over my career
关于交易 about trading
在20世纪80年代，有一个非常重要的问题 one very important question was back in the 1980s
我问这个问题的地方 where I asked the question
如果我只切会发生什么 what would happen if I just cut
我所有的损失都集中在x上 all my losses religiously at x
我得到了一个非常有力的答案 and I got a very empowering answer
这改变了我未来的一切 and that changed everything for me going forward
我还问了自己一个问题 there's another question that I asked myself
这是 and it was
深刻的体现在它所带来的变化上 profound in the change that it made in
我的交易 my trading and that was
如果 what if
索引从未被发明 indexes never were invented
我该怎么做 what would I do
我将如何交易 how would I trade
如果从来就没有道琼斯工业指数呢 what if there never was a dow jones industrial 30 index
或者是SMP 500，纳斯达克，罗素2000 or smp 500 or a nasdaq or a russell 2000
没有索引，就是不存在 there were no indexes they just didn't exist
从来没有人想过一起炒股 nobody ever thought of basketting stocks together
我们只有个股 we just had individual stocks
这就是市场的组成 that's what the market was made of
我该怎么做，我该怎么交易 well what would I do how would I trade
这改变了我的一切 and that changed everything for me
因为这就是交易的方式 because that's how you should trade
如果没有索引呢 well what if you didn't have indexes
你会怎么交易你会怎么交易 well how would you trade you would trade
猜猜看，你会用什么更好 guess what you know what you would trade better
你会更好地交易股票 you would trade stocks much better
所以它们只是减法 so they're only detract
指数只是减值 index is only detract
他们，他们，他们，他们不付钱 they they they're they're not paying
关注 paying attention to
这就像注意商店的前面 it's like paying attention to the front of a store
和 and
寻找灯亮着的门是开着的 looking for the lights to be on the doors to be open
这是伟大的 and that's great
你需要这个才能进商店 you need that to go into the store
进入商店 and to enter the store
但最终决定权在货架上的商品 but the merchandise on the shelves has the final say
如果没有商品，你能买到什么吗 can you buy anything if there's no merchandise
在货架上 on the shelves
不,你不能 no you cannot
所以没关系 so it doesn't matter
这不重要，因为这是最后决定 it doesn't matter because it's going to the final say
当你去寻找的时候，你会发现 it's going to be when you go in looking for
意大利面或者生菜 pasta or you go in there looking for lettuce
如果没有生菜，你就不能买生菜 if there's no lettuce you can't buy lettuce
这并不重要 it doesn't matter whether this
多么大的故事啊 how big the story is
多么明亮，多么闪亮，多么伟大 how bright and shiny it is how great it is
没关系 it doesn't matter
所以这只狐狸对我有最后的决定权 so this fox have the final say with me
那么我现在要看的索引是 so what am I looking at the indexes for now yes okay
分布给了我们一个关于是否 distribution gives us a hint as to whether
你知道 you know
整个市场都有抛售压力 there's selling pressure in the overall market
所以我们确实有一些工具 so we do have a few tools that we use
我们可以用它来得到一个概念 and we can use it to get an idea
但我做的90%的事情 but 90% of everything I do
还有最终的决定权 and the ultimate final say
是个股吗 is with the individual stocks
所以如果你使用 so if you use
如果你顺应市场 if you bend with the market
对于个股来说 with the individual stocks
当股票运作时，你增加 as the stocks are working you add
你增加曝光 you increase exposure
当他们 and as they're
当它们不起作用时，你就把它们拉回来 as they're not working you pull them back
你会在市场的转折点 you will be in the market at turning points
你会被淘汰的 you will be out
你会看起来像有这个 you'll look like you have this
对市场指数计时的惊人能力 incredible ability to time the market indexes
你不需要计算索引的时间 and you won't be trying to time the indexes
你只是在交易 you just be trading
当你处于上升趋势时，你会看到很大的曝光率 you'll be you'll see big exposure when in uptrends
低风险敞口和现金，下跌趋势 low exposure and cash and down trends
低头看啊 and low and behold
你会有像我一样的记录 you'll have a track record like mine where
九十年代的时候我还在 back in the nineties I was on
一直看电视 tv all the time
我给所有的机构提供建议 and I was advising all the institutions
他们都认为我有这些专利 and they all thought I had like these proprietary
市场指标, market indicators that
告诉了市场的走向 told where the market was gonna go
因为我一直叫上身和下装 because I kept calling tops and bottoms
当然 and of course
我没让大家知道 I didn't let everybody know
没有什么神奇的茶叶 that there wasn't some magical tea leaves
我让他们发挥他们的想象力来付我钱 I you know I let them use their imagination to pay me
但底线是 but the bottom line was
我只是在看股票 all I was doing was just looking at the stocks
你知道，当股票开始上涨的时候，我就看多了 you know when the stocks were setting up I got bullish
当股票被延长 when the stocks were extended
你知道我有点恶心 you know I got barish
当他们崩溃的时候，我变得恶心 and when they broke down I got barish and
,我是 and I was
我把底下所有的顶部都称为 and I was calling all the tops in the bottom the
就像我今天一样 same as I do today
好的，这里有一个 all right there is a
我想我们会以这个问题作为结束，但是 I think a question here that we will wrap up with but
最终 ultimately
考虑到条件，我认为和 considering the conditions I think and
房间里有很多人 and there's a lot of people in the room
我们再讲久一点 let's go a little bit longer
好吧 all right
也许这周我们会再做一次qamp maybe we'll do another q amp a this week
如果我们没有 if we're not having
交易多了，我再做一个q amp a much trading I will do another q amp a
对于那些 for those
因为我知道会有很多人来 because I know there's a lot of people that come in
然后我们总是按顺序走 later and then we always go in order
然后很多人会得到他们的 and then a lot of people will get their
问题回答 questions answered so
我们再做一个 and we'll do another
也许我也可以问问你们，如果你们 and maybe I can ask you guys too if you've
今天你的问题得到了解答 gotten your question answered today
如果我们再做一个的话 if we do do another one
也许让其他人进来 maybe let other people come in and
那天跳一跳 and skip a skip that day
肯，快速回答 a quick answer ken
马克·里奇就是那个 that is mark ritchie who is the one who
转向他的10万r计数在2500万 turned to his hundred thousand r count in a 25 million
丹问的不是我，你以为呢 not me dan is asking would you expect
如果我们随机从名单上购买 that if we randomly bought off the by now list
我不确定你指的是现在还是警告名单 which I'm not sure if you mean by now or by alert list
我们买了 and we bought
围绕适当的逐点，在%以内 around the proper by point within a %
我们应该能取得40 - 45%的成功运费 we should get a 40 to 45% success freight
随机购买这个词是非常可怕的 randomly buying the word random is very frightening
不，我不这么认为 no I don't think so
因为还有时间 because there's times again
你必须把它放在 you have to put in the context where
最近这段时间是我们所处的完美时期 this recent period is perfect where we were
建议在水里的脚趾 advising a toe in the water
所以不是苹果对苹果 so it's not apples to apples
你知道我们 you know we
我们把一吨股票作为空仓 we just put a whole ton of stocks as open positions
我并没有参加所有的电影 I wasn't in all of them
马克·里奇并不是所有电影的主角 mark richie wasn't in all of them
但 but
这些股票都打破了基础 those were the stocks that were breaking out of basis
你可以玩 and you could have played
我们不 we don't
随便选一个，或者按顺序玩 randomly whichever ones or played them in order
但 but
曝光应该是很轻的 again the exposure should have been very light okay
如果是在天亮的时候 and if it was at light
那它应该在 then it should have been with
短线交易，超低风险 short term trading and super low risk
非常灵活 and being very nimble
所以这里有一些重要的警告 so there's some big caveats there
你不能说在所有市场你都要 you can't just say in all markets you're just gonna
购买紫罗兰列表或PI列表 buy the violert list or the pi list
绝对不是 absolutely not
一定有 there has to be
这将再次否定渐进式暴露 again that would negate progressive exposure
这就否定了很多东西如果你仔细看的话 that would negate a lot of things and again if you look
伙计们，你们不会黑盒的，好吗 guys you're not gonna black box this okay
比尔·奥尼尔想黑掉这个 bill o'neill tried to black box this for
最好的部分与最好的30或40年 the better part of 30 or 40 years with the best
计算机能力或计算机数据库 computer power or computer database
在地球表面 on the face of the planet
却做不到 and could not do it
直到今天，每个人都提高了身高 everybody larry height to this day
拉里身高市场奇才 larry height market wizards
他是我的导师之一，也是我尊敬的人 one of my mentors and someone who I look up to and is
我的个人导师 my personal mentor
我几乎每周都和他聊天 which I talk to almost every week
直到今天 to this day he
他总是对我说，让我们让我们试着 all he ever says to me is let's let's try to
我们试着黑盒一下 let's try to black box this
他想这么做 he wants to do it
我同意了 I gave him permission
他还是没做，但我说没问题 he still hasn't done it but I said fine
无论你需要我做什么 whatever you need from me
去试一试 go try
我知道这行不通但我很尊重你 I know it's not gonna work but I respect you so much
我永远不会拒绝，也不会让你尝试 and that I'm never gonna say no and not let you try
因为他就是这么做的 because that's what he does
他更像个机械狂 he's more of a mechanical
直到今天，他还在研究算法 he brights algorithms to this day
他年纪大了，但他很棒，他 he's an older guy but he's amazing and he's
还在游戏中尝试编写算法 still in the in the game trying to write algorithms and
但你知道这是徒劳的 but you know it's fruitless
这只是徒劳 it's just fruitless
我也会很好奇 I'll be curious too
我的猜测是 my guess is
拉里会想出可行的办法 larry will come up with something that works
但是学习这 but learning this
作为一个实践者来学习 and learning to do it as a practitioner
你会做得更好 you'll do better
我是说，你当然知道 well yeah I mean you know you certainly
有很多方法 there are ways to
你可以写算法，但我可以告诉你 you can write algorithms but I could tell you this
没有 there's no
这个算法将永远有效 algorithm that's going to work in perpetuity
所以即使是算法也必须改变和进化 so even the algorithms have to change and evolve
看到的东西，这是我 see the thing with this is what I
我认为我的策略是 what I what I think about my strategy is is
这就像扑克一样 this is like poker
可以 could
你只知道出一手牌的所有概率 you just know all the probabilities of a hand
不学数学，做个扑克高手 and no math and be a good poker player
你可以成为一个不错的扑克玩家，一个优秀的扑克玩家 you could be a decent poker player a good poker player
如果你面对的是糟糕的玩家 and if you were playing against crappy players
这可能会让你成为赢家 that probably would make you be a winner
只知道数学 just knowing the math
如果我和你对着干 and if I'm playing against you
而你对扑克一无所知 and you don't know anything about poker
我懂数学 and I know the math
只是玩high well just playing high
我可能会赢你 probably hands I'm gonna probably beat you
但这里不是这样的 okay but that's not the case here
好吧，这里不是这样的 all right that's not the case here so
所以 so
与算法 with algorithms
你必须不断地改变它们，因为 you've got to constantly change them because
他们最终会变得高效 they eventually get efficient
这个永远不会有效，因为这个 this never gets efficient because this is
我们只是简单地 we're just simply
打输应用他们的手 playing the loss applying them hand
你必须是一个操作者 and you have to be an operator you have
这就像一个工具 this is like a tool
这不是一种策略 it's not a strategy as much as
他们的工具可以使用吗 are their tools to be employed
你还得是 and you still have to be a
就像驾驶战斗机一样 it's like flying a fighter
飞机 jet
你知道你开的是f16，它不会自己飞 you know you're flying f 16 the jet doesn't fly itself
你还是得开飞机 you still need to fly the jet
尽管 even though
那架飞机上有自动驾驶仪各种各样的东西 there's autopilots all kinds of things in that jet
但你还是得开那架飞机 but you still have to fly that jet
这里也是一样的 it's the same thing here
所以你们别再想黑盒了 so you know you guys gotta stop trying to black box it
然后想到这个 and come up with this
你知道毯子的事 you know this blanket thing
如果我买了这个，买了所有的股票或者 if I just buy this and buy every stock or
使用10只股票组合 use a 10 stock portfolio
做了40年，我什么都试过了 40 years doing this I tried it all
它不工作 it don't work
它不起作用 it doesn't work
你拿不到我的那种回报 you ain't getting the type of returns that my
马克·里奇得到的 myself mark richie have gotten
你们已经读过了 and that you've read about
你知道这样做是得不到回报的 you know you're not gonna get those returns doing that
你绝对不会 and you're definitely not gonna
限制你的支出 limit your drawdowns doing that
ocean来自euuswario，我想我发音是对的 ocean from euswario I believe I'm pronounced that right
考虑到中国和过去十年的发展 considering the growth of China and the last decade or
所以对于接下来的领导者来说 so in the case of some of the next leaders
中国股票 would be Chinese stocks
你觉得我们能拿到吗 do you think they would be available to us
我不知道 I have no idea
我的意思是有很多中国股票 I mean there's been lots of Chinese stocks
几年前，中国股市风靡一时 Chinese stocks were all the rage years back
他们非常 and they were very
结果证明这是一个非常冒险的提议 it turned out to be a very risky proposition
中国的问题在于会计 the problem with China is that the accounting
很差 is very poor
甚至体积 and even the volume
你现在当然知道了 you know now of course
这些股票在纽约交易所交易 the stocks are trade on the New York exchange
我们不需要担心这个 we don't have to worry about that
但是再一次 but again
会计不是最好的会计 the accounting is not the best accounting
当然会有中国股票 there's certainly going to be Chinese stocks
在我们的市场 on our markets
但我不会 but I would not
我将 I would
只交易在美国交易的中国股票 only trade Chinese stocks that are trading on the us
市场又看了，你让我推测什么时候 markets look again you're asking me to speculate when
我为什么要推测 why do I need to speculate
而我可以用"市场史密斯 when I can just fire up marketsmith
我的屏幕 run my screens
交易符合我标准的股票 and trade the stocks that meet my criteria
比如我们为什么要经历这些 like why do we have to go through this
这种精神上的自慰我是说它不是 this mental masturbation I mean it doesn't
这是徒劳的 it's fruitless
我对未来可能发生的事情的看法 what my opinion of what might happen in the future
这是毫无意义的 it's worth nothing
它对我来说一文不值 it's worth nothing to me
所以它对你来说应该一文不值 so it should be worth nothing to you
你知道我不会拿它做交易的 you know I'm not gonna trade on it
所以我不知道你为什么要 so I don't know why you would
所以你要知道我要做市场史密斯筛检 so you know I'm gonna run market smith screens
我要等股票进入vcp模式 I'm gonna wait for stocks to set up in vcp patterns
我要买痘痘 and I'm gonna buy the breakouts
一旦他们开始工作，我就会变得咄咄逼人 and when they start working I'm gonna get aggressive
当他们不工作的时候，我会变得保守 and when they're not working I'm gonna get conservative
等我被拦下了我就去取现金 and I'm gonna go to cash when I'm stopped out
和, and with that
我会继续赚大钱的 I will continue to make a fortune
在我的余生里 for the rest of my life
你也可以 and you can too
但你得练好技巧 but you're gonna have to develop skill
你需要提高技能 you're gonna have to develop skill
没有别的办法 there's no way around it
我们会，我们会 and we will we will
我们会带你去的 we will get you there
如果你坚持下去 if you stick with it
你听我们说，注意听 and you listen to us and pay attention
我们将向您展示如何培养这项技能 we will show you how to develop that skill
这就是你需要做的 and that's all you need to do
但就是这样，但这需要时间 but it's it but it takes time
娜塔莎问你能不能复习一下 natasha is asking if you can review
如何识别爆头 how to recognize a blow off top
而不是有可能移动的东西 as opposed to something that has the potential to move
可能在教程中更高 higher maybe in a tutorial or
是啊，我们可能得这么做 yeah we'd have to probably do it
深入了解，但肯定 duo in depth with that but certainly
我的书在第二本书 my books in the second book
像冠军一样思考交易有销售规则 thinking trade like a champion has selling rules
我谈到 and I talk about
你寻找的销售规则 what you look for for selling rules
最大 largest
宽的范围 widest ranges
70%的更新vs宕机天数 70% of the updates versus down days
有好几组 several several groups of that
差距加速 gaps acceleration
前进的速度再次加快 the rate of advance accelerating again
奥尼尔的书中也会有很多这样的内容 o'neill's book will have a lot of that too
再一次 again
奥尼尔和我没有 o'neill and myself have not
我们什么都没发明 we haven't invented anything
我们只是观察，或者只是观察者 we're just observing or just observers
我们只是向你汇报 and we're just reporting to you
发生什么事的时候概率很高 what happens a high probability of the time
以及发生了什么 and what what has happened in the cases of
龙头股突破 leading stocks breaking out
做大动作，登顶 and making big moves and topping
只是报道事实 and just reporting the facts
所以我就继续看书 so I would just go back to my books
但是我们可以做一些事情 but we can you know certainly do something on that
如果你上的是交易大师课程 and again if you come to the master trader program
你知道我们会详细讨论这一切的 you know we're gonna go into all this in great detail
这就是我们有时间去做的地方 that's where we get the time to be able to do that
约翰的问 john's asking
当你看到你持有的股票即将下跌时 when you see a stock that you own is about to gap down
如果你比止损点低一到2%开盘 if you open by one or 2% below your stop
你把这些按顺序放好了吗 do you put in this in order
市场前你用市场前退出吗 pre market do you ever use pre market to get out
你在哪里等待开赛 where do you wait for the open
有时 and sometimes
给它几分钟看看它能做什么 give it a few minutes to see what it might do
我一般不使用上市前 I don't generally use premarket
它取决于 it depends to
我知道马克你经常用上市前的 I know mark you use premarket all ever
通常不会，如果有的话 not usually if there's
有时我可能 sometimes I might
比如说，有时在盈利后有良好的流动性 say sometimes there's good liquidity after earnings
但通常我总是等待机会 but generally I almost always wait for the open
用一个大公司的名字 in a big cap name
我有时会利用上市前的差价 I've at times used premarket on gaps down
我有时会 I have sometimes
再一次，它通常会洗出来 again it usually comes out in the wash
你所处的时代在上市前 the times where you go pre market
然后它下降，你说，感谢上帝 and then it goes lower and you say well thank god
一个出售上市前的 a sold premarket
有时它会打开 there's other times where it opens and
掉头，然后右转回来 turns tail and turns right back up
你会得到一个更好的价格 and you would have gotten a better price
我没有，我还没有找到 I don't I haven't found
这才是真正的优势 real advantage to that
通常我只会用一个大的名字 and generally I would only do it with a big cap name
市场前的流动性在哪里 where there's the liquidity in the premarket
好吧 okay
sugit他问 sugit his asking
当你看到的时候退出所有的位置是不是更好 is it better to exit all positions when you're seeing
市场疲软 weakness in the market
比如周四和周五 like Thursday and Friday
即使是在止损交易之前 even if it's before the stops are traded
我一点也不认为那是个糟糕的决定。 I I don't think that's a bad decision at all
这是唯一一次成为一个错误的决定 the only time that becomes a bad decision
当你是周一早上的四分卫时 is when you're a Monday morning quarterbacker
你知道 you know
我的意思是你必须意识到如果你要做那件事 I mean you have to realize if you're gonna make that
果断的决定 aggressive of a decision
做出孤注一掷的决定 and make that all or none decision
如果你错了，那就是错了 well then if you're wrong it's going to be
要大得多 much larger you know
但我的看法是这样的 but the way I look at it is this
如果你没有情绪低落，或者只是情绪低落一点点 if you're not down or you're only down a little
我宁愿安全也不愿后悔 well I'd rather be safe than sorry
所以我更倾向于 so I'm more inclined to
我一看到麻烦就赶快逃跑 cut and run fast when I see trouble
然后担心 then to worry about
如果我犯了一个错误，它又变回来了怎么办 what if I make a mistake here and it turns back up
如果你开始思考这个问题 again if you get into that thinking and start thinking
如果你开始让情绪或恐惧驱动你 if you start letting the emotion or the fear drive you
你不想卖，因为它可能会涨得更高 that you don't want to sell because it might go higher
你做股票交易员是注定要失败的 you are absolutely doomed as a stock trader
我向你保证，你不会改正的 I assure you that you will not make it all right
如果你是这么想的 if that you're thinking
而下一次你就要吃亏了 and the next time you're about to take a loss
然后停止交易 and stop out on a trade
做审计做自我审计 do an audit do a self audit of yourself and
问问你自己我在想什么 ask yourself what is my thinking here
是什么在驱使我 what is driving me
我害怕的是什么 what am I afraid of what am
是什么在驱使我 what is driving me
我为什么要这么做 what is the reason I'm doing this
我不做的原因是什么 what is the reason I'm not doing
我该怎么做 what I'm supposed to do
你会发现很多时候大多数时候 and you're gonna find a lot of times most of the time
那里几乎一直都有集市 there's almost all the time there's a fair there
找出恐惧是什么 find out what that fear is
如果这种担心是股票可能 if that fear is that the stock might
转身走上去 turn around and go up
那么你的操作是从 well then you're operating from
自我，你的行为源于贪婪 ego you're operating from greed
你用的是一套 you're operating from a set of
原则从一个完全的心态 principles from a mindset that is completely
完全不利于股票交易 completely detrimental to stock trading
因为你不是在冒险 because you're not operating from risk
你不是从 you're not operating from
控制的缺点 controlling the downside
我只想控制不好的一面 all I wanna do is control the downside
所以我不在乎是否被拦下 so I don't care if I get stopped out
这支股票掉头就走高 this stock turns around it goes higher
这很了不起，我的意思是这将是100多万个特征 big deal I mean it's gonna be 1 million more traits
我认为 I think of
每一笔交易都只是接下来一百万个特征中的一个 every trade is just one of the next 1 million traits
这只是标准的操作程序 it just standard operating procedure
如果我把股票卖了30%它就又涨了30% if I sell the stock up 30% then it goes up another 30%
那就顺其自然吧 so be it it's gonna happen
你知道我已经知道我不能 you know I already know I can't
我不会得到快感的，这甚至不是我的目标 I'm not gonna get the high and that's not even my goal
所以它不是 so it doesn't even
我是说，当然 I mean of course
如果我卖了股票，股价涨得更高，我 if I sell the stock and it goes much higher and I
这是一只股票 it was a stock that I
真的真的很强大 really really thought was powerful
和 and
你知道是的 you know yeah
我想说，也许我应该 I'm gonna say well maybe I should have held
我要回去看一看，看看 I'm gonna go back and I'm gonna take a look and see
那里有迹象吗 was there signs there did I
你知道我没听懂吗 did I not follow you know
我的规则和在场 my rules and was there
告诉我应该拿着它的标志 signs that were telling me I should have held it
但即便如此 but again even then
如果我确定了利润 if I nail down a profit
我很高兴，这比我的冒险更重要 and it's more than my risk I'm happy
如果高于我的平均水平，我的 and if it's above my average game my
我很高兴，因为我进步了 average game I'm elated because I'm improving
你知道我的数字 you know my numbers
所以 so again
自己点餐，看看自己知道自己在想什么 order yourself and see you know what you're thinking
当你做决定的时候 when you get into those decision making
点，当那些给给那个十字路口 points when those give to that crossroad
好吧 all right
两个 a couple more
是的,马克 yeah mark
马克在六月的时候问马克 mark is asking mark back around June
首先你推荐 first you're recommended
好吧，我想我们已经知道了 okay I think we already
把它和退休账户联系起来 entered that with retirement accounts hold on
你能把盘子放好吗 can you put the plate
平台交易帐户 platform trading account
进入分析系统，看看它之后的表现如何 into the analytics to see how it did since
记住20秒的手机信号 remember 20 seconds cell signal
什么平台交易账号 what platform trading account
是的，这是你可以做的，理查德 yeah that's something that you can do richard
我猜他是在问 I guess he's asking about
我猜他是在问所有的 I preserve he's asking about all the
我们所做的交易建议 trade recommendations that we did
从11月22日开始 since the November 22nd
但这不是一个交易账户 but that's not a trading account
这不是典型的投资组合 it's not a model portfolio
它不是一个交易账户，也不是一个模型投资组合 it's not a trading account it's not a model portfolio
这不是什么 it's not anything
以一种你可以的方式构建 constructed in a manner that you could
你可以追踪到很远 you could track as far
你可以追踪每只股票 you could track each individual stock
我们知道我们知道 and we know we know
我们知道我们保留了损失 we know that we've kept the losses
大约一半的收益 at about half the gains
这取决于周期 and depending on the period
击球率通常从 the batting average will usually range from the
25%到35%到50%或60%取决于市场的好坏 25 to 35% to 50 or 60% depending how good the market is
但是你也会 but you'll also
如果你回头看看我的评论，你会发现这一点 find that if you go back and you look at my comments
然后叠加起来 and you overlay them
你会看到当击球率很低的时候 and you'll see when the batting average is low
我们通常用现金 we usually in cash
或者我们建议非常轻的接触 or we're recommending very light exposure
所以你必须为此做出调整 so you'd have to adjust it for all that
我相信也许有人可以 and I'm sure somebody could probably
想个办法 figure out a way to
在此基础上做一个业绩记录，但它会的 to do a track record based on it but it will be
任何不准确的 not accurate whatsoever
因为问题是当你有 because the problem is that when you have
40位置或 40 positions or
即使是30 even 30
股票，如果我们有20多只股票 stocks if we just had 20 something stocks
你不会买第21个仓位 well you're not gonna buy 21th positions
所以你再也不会参与所有的交易了 so you would never be in all of the trades again
这就是为什么这不是这个设计的目的 that's why this that's not what this is designed for
这不是时事通讯 this is not a newsletter
这不是典型的投资组合 this is not a model portfolio
我们用这10只股票来构建 we construct when we say by these 10 stocks
买进这个仓位，然后在这里卖出 buy this position size and sell here by here
那不是我们在这里做的 that's not what we're doing here
我们在教你建立技能的策略 we're teaching you a strategy to build skills
你做决定，你做决定 and you make those decisions and you decide
你知道 you know
如果你想集中在其中的四个 if you want to be concentrated only by four of them
其中的10个20个是你的决定 10 of them 20 of them that's your decision
但你也知道，我们不可能不知道 but you know again there's not really a way we don't
没有投资组合 there is no portfolio
汤姆想问你是否可以和他分享你的想法 tom is asking if you can share your thoughts on wide
黄金价格并没有随着通胀的上升而上涨 gold isn't going up with this rising inflation
我的水晶球现在就在店里 my crystal balls in the shop right now
你呢，马克 how about you mark
不知道，你以为是黄金投资者 yeah no clue the gold bugs you think
现在正在开派对吗 would be having a party right now
就像往常一样 and just like always
他们没有制造任何东西 they're not making anything
是的，你知道的 yeah well you know yeah
我们又在 again we're in a
我们生活在一个你知道比特币的世界 we're in a world where you know bitcoin
就经济学而言，事情会发生变化 things change as far as economics are concerned
和动力学 and the dynamics of
商业和人际关系 business and into relationships
市场关系 market into relationships
它曾一度是债券、大宗商品和股票 at one time it was bonds commodities stocks
这是一种循环 and it was sort of a cycle that
它们会发生在一个类似于123的过程中 they would happen in a sort of a 1 2 3 process
你知道商品价格会上涨 you know commodities would move up
这可以预测通货膨胀 that would anticipate inflation
通货膨胀上升 inflation move up
利率会上升 rates would come up
购买收益率会上升 buying yields would go up
股票与高层 stocks with top
你知道当有这个的时候 you know when there was this
我想约翰·墨菲就是这么做的 and I guess john murphy did
一本书叫做 a book called
我想这叫做标记间关系或者 I think it's called intermarky relationships or
类似的东西 something like that
我记得读过 I remember reading it
我不知道30年前 I don't know 30 years ago
它就是基于这个 it was based on that
但是这是 but again that's
锁定这套原则，你 locking into this set of principles that you
你认为可能会永远有效，但事实并非如此 you think may work in perpetuity but they don't
永久的工作 work in perpetuity
如果你能把它黑盒起来 and again if you could black box it
你可以很容易地得到答案 and you can get an answer that easily
没有机会了 there would be no opportunity
这是每个人都应该理解和接受的 see that's what everybody has to understand and embrace
拥抱, embrace that
这不是你可以黑盒的东西 this is not something that you can black box
这就是为什么会有这么大的机会 and that's why there's this tremendous opportunity
这就是为什么马克·里奇能拿到10万到2500万 that's why mark richie can take 100 grand to 25 million
因为它不是黑盒 because it's not black box
如果是黑盒，他将获得2%的年回报率 if it was black boxed he'd get a 2% returning year
这将是 that would be
等于通货膨胀率 equal to in the inflation rate because everything
会被计算出来 would be figured out
一切都会好起来的 everything would be everything would be
折现随机游走假设是正确的 discounted the random walk hypothesis would be correct
这是不对的，有很多随机性 and it's not correct there's a lot of randomness
但你不能黑盒这个，那 but you can't black box this and that's
感谢上帝 thank god
我会有自己的事业，我不会有自己的事业 I would have a career I wouldn't have a career
如果可以，我不会成为有钱人 I wouldn't be a rich man if you could
说到黄金 speaking of gold though
我指的是我们两次大量交易黄金 I mean the two times we've traded gold heavily
当我们看到很多股票的时候 was when we saw a lot of the stocks
如果你看看20年的夏天 if you look at summer of 20 20
我想是最后一次 I think was the last time
我们看到很多黄金股成立 we were seeing a lot of goldstock set up
我们在平台上推荐了GLD and we recommended gld on the platform
如果你看一下图表在20 20 well if you look at the chart back in somewhere 20 20
它看起来像一个不错的VCP it looks like a nice vcp
是的，20 20 yeah going back 20 20
是的 yeah
你需要放大一点才能看到，但是 you got to zoom in a little bit to kind of see it but
你有我还记得你作弊的时候 well you got I remember when you got the low cheat
它在这里 that was right over here
这是这是更多的右派 it was it was more of the right
这就是我们作弊率低的地方 that was where we were the low cheat there
然后是大的 and then you got the big
这里有一个很大的规律 big pattern right here that came out of
但后来它崩溃了 but then it came crashing down
不，是后来 no it was later
就在那里 right in there
就在那里，对，我记得在这里 right in there yep I remember over here
是的，我想你在这里，不是吗 yep I think you were in here weren't you
就在这里面 getting into gold right in there
是的 yeah
我做多了很多黄金，然后卖出 I was heavily long gold in there and then sold into the
进入了那个漂亮的集会 into that nice rally
你们再看一遍 you see once again
你知道你可以的 you know you can
到处都有大量的存货 and there were tons of stocks all over
经济学你知道你走了 economics you know that you go over
与此同时马克里基在寻找VCP模式 meanwhile markridge he's just looking for vcp patterns
你瞧 and lo and behold
当我们得到所有的VCP模式 when we get all the vcp patterns
我们得到了漂亮的金色鲈鱼 and we get the nice bass in gold
他在黄金方面是一个大动作 he's a big move in gold
你知道你为什么要看这些 you know why do you have to go through all these
试着看茶叶和星星 tea leaves and try to look at the stars for
用占星术来预测会发生什么 and use astrology to figure out what might happen
当你看到发生了什么 when you can see what's happening
就在你眼前 right before your eyes
比尔·奥尼尔说的另一件事是无价的 another thing that bill o'neill said that was priceless
你知道那是你不需要的 you know and and that was that you don't need
了解市场走向 to know where the market's going
你只需要知道它做了什么 all you need to know is what it's done
我已经做到了 and I've taken that to the level where
你只需要知道它应该做什么 all you need to know is what it should do
它应该做什么取决于它已经做了什么 what it should do based on what it's done
这就是 and that's where
你不需要任何其他的水晶球 you don't need any of this other you know crystal ball
再想想 thinking so again yeah
我不知道为什么是黄金 I have no idea why gold
你知道很多人对此感到困惑 you know a lot of people are baffled with that
当我们在七十年代脱离金本位的时候 when we came off the gold standard in the seventies
这改变了 and that changed
你知道黄金 you know gold
它们相互作用的方式 as far as the way it interacted
现在你有了比特币，你有了 and now you've got bitcoin and you've got
少数公司统治世界 where a handful of companies rule the world
我的意思是，这也改变了一些事情 I mean that's changed things too
你知道我们从不你知道的 you know we never you know this
这个垄断或者你知道我们有或者 this monopoly or you know that we have or
随便你怎么称呼它 you know whatever you want to call it
2乘以5或6 duopaly times five or six
谷歌，苹果，亚马逊这么小的公司 of google and apple and amazon and such a small
很多公司都锁定了沃尔玛 number of companies that have a lock on Walmart
在世界经济中占有如此大的份额 on such a large portion of the economy in the world
我们不知道有很多复杂的东西 we don't know there's complexities there that you know
通常都是事后才发现的吗 are usually only figured out way far and hindsight
我是说，你就等着买股票吧 and you just wait for the stocks I mean
你之后在这里显示的这个分泌物 this discharge you showed right here after
我觉得这就像 you know I think it was like the
排名靠前的是大量的黄金名字 the high rest list was tons of gold names
所以我们开始交易它们 so we started trading them
你不需要这个花哨的宏 you didn't have to have this fancy macro
什么是利率和所有的东西 what's rates doing and all the stuff stuff
他父亲的码头，我记得是九十年代 his father's docks and the nineties I think it was
我忘了是不是93 I forget if it was 93
我上了封面 I was on the cover of
一些报纸和杂志，我 some newspapers and some magazines where I
看涨黄金 went bullish on gold
他们说我预言了黄金市场的底部 and they said I called the bottom in the gold market
黄金价格飞涨，贵族们对此做了一些事情 and gold took off and barons did a thing on it
这引起了我的注意 and it brought some attention to me
我所做的只是一个石膏圆顶 and all I did was there was a plaster dome
Home stake mining numa mining home stake mining numa mining
只有股票在设立 there were just stocks setting up
然后碱基爆发 and bases breaking out
我说很多股票都涨了 and I said a whole bunch of stocks are breaking out
这肯定对黄金有利 well this must be positive for gold
我去了波利沙 and I went bolisha
就像你知道的股市一样 just like the stock market you know
股票引导我在顶部的底部进行看涨 the stocks lead me to call on the bottoms of the tops
黄金股让我开始看涨黄金 the gold stocks led me to being bullish on gold
金波普起飞了，起飞了，我 and gold bop took off and blasted off and I was
最后上了杂志封面 ended up on the cover of a magazine
呼唤底部和黄金 of calling the bottom and gold
我甚至没有考虑过黄金的价格 and I never even looked at the price of gold
我只是看了看股票 all I did was look at the stocks
顺便说一句，马克 by the way mark
我注意到了你的帖子，我今天转发了 I noticed you posted and I retweeted today
真正的视觉刚刚做了一个 real vision just did a
很酷的采访系列 pretty cool little series in an interview
马克·里奇居然飞过来找我 mark richie actually came and flew to me
真正的幻象出现了 and real vision came
从纽约飞过来，派了一个制片人和一个电影摄制组 flew from New York and sent a producer with a film crew
还录下了对阿坎耶的采访 and filmed an interview with arkanye
这将是系列的一部分，所以 that's gonna be part of a series so
我不知道，你爸爸在那个系列里，对吧 I didn't realize but your dad is in that series right
他入选了 he made the cut yeah
太棒了 that's awesome
这是正确的 that's right
我想这周应该会出来 I think it's supposed to come out this week
他们只是他们只是放出了预告片 they just they just put out the teaser
我今早刚发的那条推特 which I just tweeted this morning
是的是的 so yeah yeah
它会在上面开一个洞，会很棒的 it's gonna get a hole to that and it's gonna be great
这是只给大家准备的吗 is that that's gonna be prepared people only or
好吧，我不我确定没事 okay I'm not I'm sure it's fine
他们付了很多钱，但他们有各种免费试用 and pay well but they got all kinds of free trials
如果没有，我肯定我能得到一些 and if not I'm sure I can get some type of
免费我们的一个采访 free one of our interview
或者别的什么，我们会得到一个公告的 or whatever and we'll get a posted
好吧，看看我们能不能拿到，我们可以分享一下 okay yeah see if we can get it we can share that
但是我们有一个非常非常整洁的 but it was a pretty pretty neat we had
我们玩得很开心 we had fun doing it
虽然太短了，但是很棒 and it was way too short but it was great
是啊，是啊，不过还没到一个小时，对吧 yeah yeah well it wasn't hour though right right
我只是说我们本可以 I'm just saying we could have
我们本可以走得更久，但我们确实可以 we could have gone a lot longer but it was we could
我们刚开始热身，他们就说好吧 we were just getting warmed up and they were like okay
这是说唱，我就像真的 it's a rap and I was like what really
我以为我们才刚开始呢 I thought we were just getting started
我以为他们会拍3小时，他们会 I thought they're gonna shoot like 3h and they're gonna
就拿第一个来说 take the first of it
但他们是现场直播，我们只播了一个小时 but they just ran it live and we just went for an hour
这很酷 so but it's pretty cool
这是一部非常高质量的作品 it's a really high high quality production
非常大的预算 really big kind of big budget
你会发现制作过程非常酷 production you'll see it's pretty cool
无论如何 anyway
我的推特上有，如果你想看的话 it's on my Twitter feed if you want to take a look
预览一下 the preview of it
好了，朋友们，让我们看看发生了什么 alright so guys let's see what happens here
这当然是 this is certainly
一个艰难的开始 a tough start here
这周的时间 of the week here
这里的一切都分崩离析了 and everything's just falling apart here
但就像我之前说的，不要气馁 but like I said before do not get discouraged
这就是勇气 this is being courage by this
太棒了，这就是我们想看到的 this is great this is what we want to see
的 the
真正的硬市场是所有新手都没有经验的时候 real hard market was when all the inexperienced new
交易员们赚了很多钱 traders kids are making a fortune and
游戏停止和比特币 games stop and bitcoin
现在每个人都被炸飞了 everybody's getting blown out now
但我们在清理甲板我们在清洗甲板 but we're clearing the deck here we're washing the deck
这将创造一个很好的机会 this is going to create a great opportunity
一个巨大的机会，爆炸性的机会 a great opportunity explosive opportunity
宽松的美元环境 an easy dollar environment
时间越长，效果越好 the longer it takes the better it will be
坚持下去.. hang in there
介绍你自己 just cover yourself
在此期间尽量不要损失太多的钱 try not to lose too much money in the meantime when
拉锯, the whipsaws and
你知道 you know
慢慢来 be very slow to
加大力度，直到你获得牵引力 ramp up until you've got traction
但我们会成功的，你会成功的 but we'll get there you'll get there
我向你保证 and I assure you that
就像每一个牛市和熊市周期一样 just like in every bull and bear cycle
我已经通过 I've been through
40年来，8只公牛和8只熊 eight bulls and eight bears over 40 years
这是一样的 this is just the same thing
会有不同的名字 it'll be different names
然后就会有一堆名字消失 and there'll be a bunch of names gone
而那些留下来坚持的人会 and those of you that stay and persist will
会收获这些好处吗 will reap the benefits of those
他们退出了 who quit all right
我会跟你们说的，我会尽力 I'll talk to you guys and I'm gonna try to do
我再试一试 I'll try to do another
也许我们会在周中再做一次 probably we'll do another q amp a mid week
因为 because
我不确定我们还能有多少事要做 I'm not sure we're gonna have a whole lot to do here
我知道有很多人 this week and I know there's a lot of people
他们的问题没有得到答案 didn't get their questions answer
好吧，我们会跟你谈的 okay so we'll talk to you
所以我只是监视平台 so I'm just monitor the platform
待会儿见 see you guys later
谢谢马克 thanks mark cocky later
感谢您一如既往的回复 thanks to replay as always
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