好了 我们开始提问吧 Okay, so let's start off and take some questions.
正如我承诺的 这是问答环节 And this is A-Q-A sessions, as as I promised.
我们从这里开始 对了 你们参加完之后 玛格丽特来了 So let's let's start here. So after you have attended, by the way, margaret, she's here.
对于那些刚刚加入的人 也在这里标记财富 For those of you who just join this, mark riches here as well.
所以如果你有问题要问马克 里奇或者我自己 你当然可以把它放在那里 So if you have a question directed towards Mark, richie or myself, you could certainly put that in there.
试着试一试 Try to take a crack at it.
我们觉得我们应该做的最好的事 The best that we, uh feel we should.
嗯 让我们看看 在你获得了平均收益的几倍之后 当你决定卖出一只股票时 你会考虑这只股票的类别吗 Um, let's see, after you have attained a multiple of your average gain, do you take in consideration the category of the stock when deciding to sell a stock, e.g.
生物医药类股票具有更大的爆炸性潜力 你可能希望在涨幅超过12-15%的时候卖出 而a-b-r-k-b类股票可能会在涨幅达到8-10%的时候卖出 a biomedical stock with more explosive potential, you might want to sell at a greater than twelve to 15% gain, versus something like A-B-R-K-B, where you might decide to sell at an eight to 10% gain.
在 马可福音 的那个特别的例子中 我想让你们也谈谈这个 Well, in that particular example in Mark, I think I want you to maybe talk to this too.
这是一个极端的例子 因为B-R-K-B连股票都算不上 That's an extreme example, because B-R-K-B is really not even a stock.
它实际上是一种指数或基金 It's really sort of an index or a fund.
所以在这个例子中 我会说 当然 你知道 我想 在伯克希尔哈撒韦的一半有多少可观的收益 So in that example, I would say, absolutely, you know, I would, what would be a decent gain in A-B-R-K-B uh berkshire halfway?
肯定会 你知道 可能 你知道 远没有我期望的那么多 也许我能从生物技术中得到 Would definitely be, you know, probably, you know, not nearly as much as I would expect, maybe that I can get from a biotech.
但就个股而言 我不知道 你是否会对它有那么多的解读 你知道 你对整个集团的解读 或者 我的意思是 如果这是一场强势的游戏 我就会这么做 相对于一个不那么强势的基数 But as far as individual stocks are concerned, I don't know, do you ever read into it that much mark where you're reading into, you know, the group, and whether um or is it, you know, I mean, I would do that if it was a power play, maybe versus a base that wasn't as powerful.
但你会怎么排序呢 But how would you rank that?
是的 我的意思是 我会用一点 你知道的 听着 如果它有收益和销售额 而且它的一部分的那种经典的四个增长组最大的来自 你躺在你的书和主交易商程序 对 说 可能是周期性或甚至像沃尔玛 你知道的 或者像一个蓝色的芯片 你知道 只是没有盈利能力 你知道的 当然我要治疗一个稍有不同 Yeah, I mean, I would use a little bit, you know, listen, if it has if it has earnings and sales, and it's part of the sort of classic four growth groups that the biggest ones come from, that you lay out in your book and at the master trader program, versus, say, maybe the a cyclical or or maybe even something like a Walmart, you know, or like a blue chip that, you know, just doesn't have that earnings power, you know, certainly I'm going to treat one a little differently.
你知道 现在的例子是L-N-T-H 你知道 这是我最大的位置 You know, the example right now would be an L-N-T-H, you know, that's, that's my biggest position.
如果你看净股票 你知道 这看起来像一个潜在的关键领导者 If you look at net stock, you know, this looks like a potential key leader to me.
所以如果我拥有这家公司 我拥有 呃 你知道 甚至 像格鲁曼的北部 这是一个辩护名字 我 我肯定会 你知道 我不喜欢用青睐或偏爱这个词 但是 你知道 这个 L和T-H 这是爆炸性的收入 So if I owned this, and I owned, um, you know, maybe even, like a North of Grumman, which is a defense name, I-I, I'm certainly gonna, you know, I don't like to use the word favor or favorites, but, you know, this, L and T-H, it's just explosive earnings.
它属于那些典型的增长群体之一 如果我们真的触底了 它也是最先出现的群体之一 It's in um, one of those classic growth groups, and it's one of the 1st to emerge, if we have indeed bottomed.
所以 你知道 就像我将要给出的一个工作例子 我将尝试给出这个例子 So, you know, there's just like a working example how I'm going to give, I'm going to try and give this one.
我不会以2比1的比例来改变整个位置 I'm not going to dislodge the whole position at a two to one, you know.
你们注意到我们没有削减 有时我会削减我们有两位数的增长 10%的增长 1112%的增长 我们没有削减 And you notice that we have not trimmed it, like sometimes I'll trim we had double digits, a 10% gain, 1112 percent gain, we have not trimmed it.
马克和我 你知道的 会在一天中多次进行内部交流 And Mark and I, you know, will speak internally at times throughout the day.
如果像这样 库存开始延长 而我没有修剪 他可能会给我发信息说 嘿 你知道 你认为 你知道 我认为我应该修剪这库存吗 If if something like this, you know, the stock starts getting extended, and I have not trimmed it, he might shoot me over a message and say, hey, you know, do you think, you know, I think I should trim out this stock here?
他会发现我没有修剪 Uh, he'll see that I have not trimed it.
所以整个人问我 如果有广告的话 为什么我不修剪它 So whole actually asked me so in case there's the ads reason why I'm not trimming it.
这是其中一个例子 我甚至没有听马克说过 你知道 他 他没有说 嘿 她会修剪这里 因为他自动知道 And this is one of those examples where I have not even heard from Mark, you know, he, he didn't say, hey, she'll be trim this here, because he automatically knows.
我知道这是一场权力游戏 And I know this is a power play.
这是一场从低谷中走出来的强攻 This is a power play coming off of the lows.
这真的有不可思议的潜力 所以 嗯 This really has incredible potential. So, um, that.
所以 我想说 更多的是 你知道 比实际的群体 你知道 来自权力的地方 来自非常 非常棒的设置 So, so I would say, more the setup, you know, than the actual group, you know, coming from power place, coming from really, really great setup.
更多的是关于股票的表现 你知道 我将通过股票的表现来判断 And more of how the stock's acting, you know, I'm going to go by how the stock's acting.
我的另一个问题是 在一个良好的市场条件下 你会在回落到趋势移动平均线时买入吗 And I's, in other, you know, question here, in a good market conditions, would you buy a pullback to the tending moving average?
所以我从来 几乎从来没有把回落到移动平均线作为买入点 So I never, almost ever use a pull back to a moving average as a point to buy.
我发现这绝对是最有效的 最基本的策略 如果你要谈论策略 如果随机性是真的 那就是它了 I find that that is the absolute most remedial, basic, you know, strategy, that if you want to talk about a strategy, that if it's if randomness is true, that's got to be it.
嗯 现在 考虑到这个事实 我要告诉你 当你进入一个上升轨道 一个新的上升轨道 你有股票 可能会打破那些最初的底部 Um. Now, given the fact, though, I'll tell you this You know, when you get into an uptrain, a new uptrain, and you get stocks, maybe that break out of those initial bases off the low.
50天是一个很好的地方 如果你把它拉回来 因为它从那里开始出现 这是有道理的 The 50 day is a good place to look for, if you pull back to it for uh as it starts to turn up from there, that can make sense.
当然你可以用20天 21天或10天 如果 你知道 在股票中 你可以用这些区域 但没有什么神奇的 你知道 就像我 有人问我 哦 我用65天 这个用21天 这个用19天 有人用棕褐色 有人用50天 And certainly you can use the 20 day, 21 day or the ten day, if, you know, in in a in a stock that's held it, um, you can use those areas, but there's nothing magical, you know, like I out of people ask me, oh, would you I used a 65 day, and this one used to the 21, this one uses the 19, and someone uses a tan, and somebody squares by the 50 in this.
还有交叉 5的15次方 你懂的 And the crossover, the five to the 15, you know.
我的意思是 我想如果你 你知道 如果你都试过 你知道 68 75也可以 你知道 你知道 在10 9 你知道 I mean, I guess if you, you know, if you try them all, you know, 68.75 will work, you know, in a 10.9, you know.
所以这些数字没有什么神奇的 So there's nothing magical about those numbers.
只是移动 你想要寻找的回调是寻找实际的行动 It's just moving. What you want to look for the pullbacks is to look for the action in the actual
条形图 看看发生了什么 bar charts and see what's going on there,
然后看看股票是否 um, and and figure out if the stock
表现正常 所以如果你被拉回 is acting normal, so if you get a pull back,
嗯 你知道的 再一次 我们在细胞上 实际上 我想我要把这个留到周末 因为我不想占用你们的提问时间 um, you know. And again, we're on the cell and T-H-I actually, I think I'm going to keep this for the weekend, cause I don't want to take your question time.
我本打算稍微分析一下 但我会在周末做 我会分析并展示每个工作日 I was going dissect this a little bit, but I'll do it over the weekend, and I'll dissect this and show the individual days.
Monolerts拿起监视器的东西真的会训练你去看 And what Monolerts picking up monitor is really what is going to train you to look
为了找到你应该在哪里买入 在哪里拉回 你应该在哪里持有 而不是卖出 你应该在哪里卖出 and to find where you should be buying, a pull back, where you should be holding, instead of selling, where you should be selling.
当股价上涨一点点的时候 你知道 在决定性的时刻那些违规和确认将会堆积成我所说的集群 When the stock runs up A-A bit, and you're, you know, in the decisive it is going those violations and confirmations are going to pile up in what I call clusters.
我们将开始以集群为单位进行讨论 实际上我们将尝试编程 从单一集群到精细集群 并告诉你某些集群何时形成 And we're going to start talking in clusters so, and we're actually going to try to program, uh, monolert to fine clusters and tell you when certain clusters are forming together.
因为这是整体或证据的重量 你试图通过模型或眼睛来评估 Because it's the totality or the weight of evidence, that you're trying to assess with something like a model or with your eyes.
让我看看 标记你看到一个技术主题的发展 Let's see, marker you seeing a technical theme develop?
所以我也想问你这个标记 So I definitely want to ask you that mark as well.
嗯 我现在看到的技术主题是 这是一个伟大的技术主题 那就是从基础和不同层次的突破 从权力游戏到低作弊 正在工作 事情正在出现 如果你愿意的话 Um, the technical theme that I'm seeing right now is, and this is a great technical theme, and that is that breakouts from bases and from various levels, from power plays to low cheats, are working and things are coming out, sort of on schedule, if you will.
这是一个很好的迹象 这正是我们想看到的 And that's a great sign. That's exactly what we want to see.
现在 我也想指出这一点 正如他们在今天早上的笔记中提到的 Now, I want to point this out too, as they put it out in this morning's note.
准备好这一切都崩溃了吧 Be prepared for this all to fall apart.
我们已经见过很多次了 We've seen this before, many times.
在我40年的职业生涯中 马库斯看到过这样的情况 你知道 你从低点走出来 一堆股票建立起来 它们爆发了 一切都很好 你自满 你不获利 然后突然之间 你知道 一切都消失了 In my career, 40 years, marcus seen it where, you know, you come off the lows, a bunch of stocks set up, they break out, everything's going great, and you're complacent, you don't take any profits, and all of a sudden, next thing you know, everything's gone.
现在你坐在那里 你在为你的生命而战 因为你建立的所有这些姿势开始失去纵队 如果你不迅速 你就会在水下 And now you're sitting there and you're fighting for your life as all these positions you built up start going into the lost column, and if you weren't quick, you're under water.
所以如果这只是一个裸市的反弹 如果我们进入衰退 很有可能 如果我们进入衰退 这可能是熊市的连续 我们实际上是在更低 或者我们要花时间 至少在这附近反弹 So if this could be just a rally within a bare market, if we're going into recession, most likely, if if we are going to a recession, this is, this is probably a row in the bear market, and we're actually going lower, or we're going to spend time, uh, basing at least and bouncing around here.
所以让我们快速地看待这个问题 So just put this in perspective real quick here.
正确看待这个问题 在纳斯达克 Look at this in perspective. On the Nasdaq.
你看 这只是从低点猛攻过来的 This is just a pounce off the lows, you see.
这就是为什么你不想用指数作为你的领先指标 因为我们有很多股票爆发 And this is why you don't want to use the index as your, your lead indicator here, because we have a bunch of stocks breaking out.
如果你在油区 你知道它已经有一段时间很好了 一直往回走 你你的石油名称仍然处于上升趋势自从埃塞利在这里爆发 一直往回走 And if you're in the oil area, you know it's been doing good for a while, going all the way back, you you're still in an uptreand in the oil names since that that Exiley broke out here, all the way back here.
好吧 这是一月份的事了 All right. This is all the way back in January.
看看这个 这些都是自然反应 And look at this. These are all natural reactions.
我们仍在突破现有的基础 向更高的目标前进 And we're still breaking out of bases and moving higher.
这就是为什么我说我们必须假设他可能会在这里领导一段时间 This is why I said we have to assume that this might be a leader here for a while.
所以 现在我们有很多机会 但可能都泡汤了 So, uh, right now we're getting a lot of opportunities, but that may fizzle out.
好吧 所以我看到的技术主题是 我们从突破到突破在起作用 而你要坚持到底 All right. So the technical theme I'm seeing is that we're getting breakout to break outs are working, and you're getting follow through.
所以现在不像2021年 你有一笔交易 你知道 如果你不退出 就像在第一天或两天 你就死定了 So it's not like that 2021, where you had a trade, you know, if you didn't get out, like in the 1st day or two, you were dead.
就像一切都结束了 就像什么都没发生过一样 It was like it was over, like nothing was going more than a couple days.
这一次 我们 我们得到了一些很好的 呃 在这些爆发中 This time, we're, we're getting some pretty nice, uh, fall throughout some of these breakouts.
这很令人鼓舞 这就是为什么我们选择了格林在斯塔玛 你觉得呢 马克 就主题而言 It's quite encouraging. That's why we went to green on the on the, uh, stama, what do you think, uh, mark, as far as a theme?
是啊 我觉得 就像 你在通知里说的那样 就像我现在看到的 Yeah, I-I think, uh, it's sort of, um, exactly what you said in your notice, sort of what I'm looking at.
我觉得你还是持怀疑态度 不是吗 I think you're still skeptical though, aren't you?
我只是 我只是给了它证据的分量 因为当突破成功时 它所压倒的主题之一是 你知道 两三天之后 他们失败了 Well, I'm just, I'm giving it the weight of evidence, because one of the themes that it was overriding when breakouts work is, you know, after two, three days, then they failed.
所以 嗯 但现在 我想说 绝对正确 So, um. But right now, absolutely right, I would say.
我认为 这是关于L和T-H的一点 你知道 或者任何名字 你知道 你知道 我在看一些名字的位置 我认为你已经迈出了一步 And this is where, I think, to even the point about the L and T-H, you know, or or whatever, you know, name, I'm looking the position in a few names that I think you've got a step to the plate.
每次你看到积累 你看到股票开始波动 这是让你自己 嗯 正确地金字塔的唯一方法 Every time you see the accumulation, you see stocks starting to move, this is the only way to get yourself, uh, pyramided up properly.
嗯那么 你的意思是 在这一点上 你必须准备好接受任何一种情况 Um So, but to your point, you've got to be ready to go either way at this point.
从这个意义上说 每次都是一样的 So in that, in that sense, it's the same every time.
你总是会在几个位置上领先 然后你就得准备好切入并逃跑或者用毒气攻击 You always you up on a few positions, and then you've got to be ready to cut and run or to to gas it.
你可以看到我在水中从几个姿势到20个姿势的速度有多快 你知道吗 And you see how fast I went from just a couple positions toes in the water to to 20 positions, you know?
我没有全部持有20个仓位 马克也没有 但我们把它们放在那里 因为 你知道 你可能没有买最初的仓位 有新的突破 And I don't own all 20 positions, and Mark doesn't either, but we put them out there because, you know, you may not have bought the initial ones, and there's new breakouts.
但事实是 事情开始奏效了 所以我们增加了一些 So but the fact is is that things started working, so we added a few more.
事情开始起作用了 而且还在继续起作用 Things started working, they continue to work.
所以我们又加了一些 你看 像这样的股票在9天里上涨了7天 So we added some more. You know, you see here a stock like this up seven out of nine days.
现在这些名字中的一些被赋予了反转恢复 甚至像 呃 BPT今天早上 你开始的地方 你开始上升 它看起来真的很好 然后在某一天它看起来 哦不 我们要逆转 也许这是我们得到关键的通用 And now some of these names are given reversal recoveries, even like, uh BPT This morning, where you started, you started moving up, it was looking really good, and then in a day it looked like, oh no, we're going to reverse and maybe this is where we get that key universal.
我们出去 你放 We go out, you put
白天它在外面 进来这里 it outside day and come in here.
但不 最后有了一件很好的衣服 But nope. And ended up having a pretty good clothes
仍然坚持在那里 所以到现在为止 我们从这里购买了百分之二十四 你知道 八九天前 and still holding up there. So up now, 24 and a half percent from our purchase right over here, just, uh, you know, eight, nine days ago.
呃 这就是我们想看到的 Uh. That that's what we want to see.
所以我们的主题是 我们被跟踪并突破 所以工作 So the theme is that we're, we are getting followed through and break out, so working.
我想想 M-M提到了30%的涨幅 So let's see, um, M-M mentioned being up for 30%
年复一年 如果他加入我们 他就会成为第一名 year to day, and that would put him a number one spot had he participated in us.
我看到今年 normZeta问我在哪里 这一年他问我的时候很好奇 然而 在NPR到目前为止的85次关闭交易中 我们的打击率低于20% 预期率约为-3% I see this year, norm Zeta was asking me about where I was, and the year he was asking me was curious, however, out of the 85 closed trades for NPR to date, we got below 20% batting average, with an expectancy of around -3 %.
嗯 是的 嗯 那是 那是那是对的 Um, yeah. Well, that's yeah, that's that's right.
这85笔交易 是唯一真正做得很好的交易 The 85 trades, the only trades that really have done really well.
这是最近25次交易中的最后20次交易 Here are the last, probably, you know, 20 trades in the last 25 trades.
他做了什么我做了什么 Um What did he What did I do?
他在问 我做了什么 He was asking, what did I do?
收紧战略的前提 Tighten up the premise of strategy?
嗯是的 基本上和我以前做的一样 你知道 没有什么真正的改变 Um Yeah, basically the same thing as I did before, you know, where nothing's really changed.
我 我 我肯定 会选择快速的动作 但是现在我们可以玩一些更大的动作了 I'm, I'm, I'm definitely uh, taking the the quick moves and and, uh, but now we're getting able to play for some bigger moves.
现在 现在我在考虑 你知道的 做更大的变动 Now. Now I'm considering, you know, going for a bigger move.
但是 这仍然为时过早 But again, this is still early.
你们必须意识到 如果我们进入一个新的牛市 我不认为这是一个新的牛市的开始 就像98年那样 我们刚刚从低点反弹 然后直线上升 就是这样 You guys have to realize that, you know, if we're going into a new bull market, which I don't think this is the start of a new bull market, like like 98, where we just ripped off the lows and we went straight up, you know, and that was it.
我可不这么觉得 It doesn't feel that way to me.
他们在关注正在发生的事情 以及背后的经济因素 They're looking at what's going on, the economics behind it.
美联储走在一条顺风顺水的道路上 除非 除非 突然间不是在任何地方 市场可能会正确地理解这一点 The fed on a tiding path, unless, unless, all of a sudden not in nowhere, and the market might be getting this right.
突然之间 我知道 通货膨胀就下降了 All of a sudden, I know it, inflation just comes down.
它就像它达到了顶峰 这是一个很好的信号它达到了顶峰 然后美联储突然就把它放回去了 And it it's like it peaked, and it's a really good sign that it peaked, and all of a sudden the Fed just passed it back off.
这可能是爆炸性的 市场可能已经在打折了 That could be explosive, and the market might be discounting that already.
我不会比市场更清楚 所以我买股票 I'm not going to know that better than the market, so I'm just going to buy the stocks.
现在 如果我是对的 我们假设 你知道 这个短期交易 你知道 我交易了很多股票 它们不断上涨 天啊 我应该持有它们的 Now. If I am right, let's just say, you know, this short term trading, you know, I trade a lot of these stocks, and they keep going up, oh my God, I should have held them.
如果我是对的 还会有很多其他的安排 Well, if I'm right, there's going to be a lot of other setups too.
我们能够做到这一点 因为它不会在一个月左右结束 And we'll be able to do that, because it's not going to be over in a month or so.
这就是我不担心的原因 So that's why I'm not worried about that.
我们的市场是一个空荡的市场 市场占有率下降了30% We've had a bare market where the nastics down 30 %.
你知道 如果我们要进入另一个牛市 然而 让我们说 你知道 我 我在本质上是正确的 采取短期行动是正确的 You know, if we're going to go into another bull market, however, let's say I'm, you know, I'm, I'm right in the in the essence that taking the short term moves is the right move.
我的钱会全部还回来 市场可能会跌到新低 而我最后会一无所有 Well, I'd be given it all back, and this market might go to new lows, and I'd end up with nothing.
所以我宁愿选择快速交易 你知道 快速交易上涨 然后如果成功了 当市场触底时 我就会 我就会 你知道 交易下一只股票或别的什么 So I'd rather take the quick, you know, the quick trades chip up, and then if that works out, where the market has bottom, and I'll just, I'll just, you know, trade the next stocks or whatever.
如果我想延长期限 If I want to go longer a term.
我之前告诉过你 如果你做短线交易 这本身就能让你达到目标 Here's the thing, though, I could told you before, if you're going short term trade, that in itself should be able to get you to your goal.
好吧 我会讲到的 不管怎样 无论我是做短期交易还是做长期交易 无论我怎么做 我都会达到目标 Okay, I'm gonna get there. Either way, whether I'm short term trading or on long term or no matter what I do, I'm gonna get there.
它可能是在一个不同的时间框架里 或者或者是有一些不同类型的撤军 等等 但是我会到达那里 你也可以到达那里 It just might be in a different, little bit different time frame, or or with a little bit different type of drawdown and and so forth, but I'm gonna get there, and you can get there too.
真正重要的是你决定你的风格是什么 What's really important is that you decide what your style is.
如果你要改变你的风格 那么无论你的风格如何改变你的风格都必须是你的风格 If you're gonna shift styles, well, then whatever that style shift has to be sort of in your has to be your style.
你知道 你不会改变你的策略 但你可能会在策略中改变你的时间框架 这是风格的一部分 You know, it's not like you're going to change your strategy, but you might change your time frame within the strategy, and that's part of the style.
我不知道这是否说得通 If, if that makes sense, I don't know.
嗯 我想补充一点 我也想补充一点 Um, I would add, I would add to that mark too.
我认为你现在可能犯的最大的错误 就是太过 你知道 追逐 如果你可以的话 I think the biggest mistake you could make it right now, is to be in too big of a um, you know, chasing, if you may.
也许你没有取得太大进展 但你开始在没有缓冲的情况下增加敞口 或者你开始追逐那些因为市场反弹而延长的资产 你没有任何敞口 Maybe you haven't got much progress, but then you start adding exposure without a cushion, or you start just chasing stuff that's extended because the markets bounced in, you don't have any exposure.
是的 嗯 那么 马克 我想问你 你 你今年到目前为止过得怎么样 Yeah, um. So, and Mark, I wanted to ask you, what are you, what, uh, how are you doing so far this year?
因为 我知道 你知道 你之前做得很好 但你有增加任何 任何表演吗 Cause, I know, you know, you're doing fairly good before, but has you tacked on any on, any performance?
什么 我想我会慢慢来 What? I thought I'll take it really slow.
我几乎是平的 我基本上 你知道的 我三月份赚了一点钱 然后我把钱还回去了 I'm pretty much flat. I'm basically, uh, you know, I-I made a little bit of money in March, and then I gave it back.
在随后的撤资中 这就是我买了两个名字的原因 Uh, in that subsequent pull back, which is, you know, why I like, I bought two names.
有一次我被拦住了 一个是持有 I got stopped on one. One is holding.
我今天又买了一个 你知道的 我 我正在逐步储备它 I bought another one today, you know, I'm, I'm taking it incrementally stocked by stock.
我同意你的观点 I-I agree with, uh, your sentiment.
我不相信这就像2020年的吊索在这里打出V形尖锐的底部 I'm not convinced this is like a 2020 sling shot V sharp bottom here.
我有 我们我们可能有比感觉更多的支持 我不确定 And I have, uh, we we may have more, a lot more backing than feeling to do, I'm not sure.
但我知道 如果我们有了底部 就会有更精彩的比赛 But I just know there's gonna be, if we have bottom, there are going to be some even juicier pitches coming down the pipe.
所以没必要直接进去 So there's no need to just go in.
枪还在开火 至少对我来说 Guns blazing yet, at least for me.
是的 但我也记住了 Yeah. But I keep in mind too.
你知道 当我们买股票的时候 我们很害怕 我们永远不会想象市场会起飞 You know, around covet you know, when we were buying stocks, then, we were terrified, and we'd never, in a million years imagine that the market taken off.
所以 所以 你知道的 真的 对吧 So, so, so, uh, you know, with really, right?
是啊 我们的意见再加25美分 你就可以找朋友了 Yeah, our our opinion and a quarter, and you can go call a friend.
你知道 这是最好的 That's about, you know, the best
你会脱身的 you're going to get out of it.
所以 So
我只是 我只是觉得 你不应该担心我或者马克·里奇的观点 I just, I just don't think, you know, you should worry about my opinion or Mark richie's opinion.
我们应该只看我们在做什么以及股票在做什么 否则我们就会随着市场的变化而变化 We should just look at what we're doing and what the stocks are doing, or we're gonna bend with the market.
无论如何我们会 事实上 如果我的内脏在燃烧 我很害怕 那就是最好的迹象 We're gonna regardless. A matter of fact, if my gut's burning and I'm terrified, that's the best sign.
当我看到股票时 When I see stock
我想成为那群人中的一员 他们甚至说服我 你知道 这太糟糕了 setting up, I want to be part of that crowd where it's even convinced me that it's, uh, you know, it's so bad.
嗯 我希望股票能建立起来 Um. And I want stocks to be setting up.
最好的 The best
环境是当你有大量的负面情绪和大量的设置时 那是你做底的最好环境 environment is when you have tons of negative sentiment and lots of setups, that's your best environment for for a bottom.
我们 我们开始这就是现在的环境 And we're, we're starting that's kind of what this environment is right now.
让我再问几个问题 Let me get some more questions.
好吧 能说说你对E-G-L-E的看法吗 Okay, can I get your take on E-G-L-E?
嗯 是的 当然 我的想法很简单 Um? Yeah, sure. I mean, my take is, uh, very simple.
我们买了它 它表现得很好 You know, we bought it and it's acting fine.
真的没什么好说的了 There's nothing really more to say.
呃 它在这里爆发 好 让我们看看 Uh, it broke out here. Well, let's see.
让我好好想想 我的屏幕在这里 Let me just get well, I got my screen here.
嗯 好吧 是的 05 31 这里 对吗 Um, OK, yeah. 05:31, right here, right?
缩放时 所有东西都被挡住了 Everything's blocking everything at the zoom.
05 31在这里登机 我会在图表上做个标记 这样你们就能在这里看到 Um. 05:31 boarded here. I'll mark that on the chart so you can see that right here.
你知道 你有第一天的好东西 但你有一个好的 体面的中午衣服在里面 And, you know, you had that 1st day good comes in, but you got a good, a decent midday clothes when inside.
现在你试着上来 Now you're trying to come up.
另一件事是 有些运货人看起来像你在这里 像SBOkays 阿克顿 And another thing is, some of the shippers look like you're setting up here, like SB Okays, acton.
我在这里可以做得很好 呃zi I can pretty good here. Uh Z-I am.
我今天就可以买了 I could have bought that today, you know.
我希望它不会在周一就撕下来 我后悔今天没有买它 I'm hoping that it doesn't just rip out Monday and I regret not buying it today.
你的一些货主表现得很好 Um, you've got some of the shippers are acting acting good.
所以整个 整个群体现在看起来都很好 So the whole, this whole group is looking pretty good right now.
这很好 让我们看看 如果你拥有所有最好的交易和能源 你会考虑只增加在该领域的敞口吗 即使你的科技股运作得不是很好 So this is acting fine. Let's see, if you had all your best trades and energy, would you consider increasing your exposure exclusively in that sector, even if you had tech setups not working that well?
如果你拥有所有最好的交易和精力 你会考虑增加敞口吗 If you had all your best trades and energy, would you consider increasing exposure?
听着 如果你想把所有的东西都放在一个部门 你当然可以做到 Look, if you want to put everything into one sector, you certainly can do that.
你知道吗 我没有 我认为这并没有看起来那么危险 You know? I don't. I don't think that that is as risky as it appears.
只要你在上面 你每天都在看 你知道 每天都在看 As long as you're on top of it, you're watching every day, you're, you know, incher day.
你动作很快 如果 你知道 如果你在这个领域有了重大突破 一切都开始对你不利 You're quick to move. If, you know, if you get a big break in the sector, everything starts moving against you.
嗯 你知道 我想说 你知道 一般来说 我想说 你知道 你知道 你知道 每个部门25到50% Um, you know, I would say that, you know, generally speaking, I'd say, you know, 50 %, you know, 25 to 50% in each sector.
你知道 如果你有四个部门 那是相当的 你知道 50%肯定是非常集中的 You know, if you have four sectors, that's pretty, you know, certainly 50% would be very concentrated.
一个部门的所有东西都有点 有点多 Everything in one sector is a bit, that's a bit much.
我不 我不认为这是必要的 I don't, I don't think it's necessary.
所以我可能不会 我的意思是 我可能会那样做 但我可能会 你知道 呆很短的时间 你知道 很多钱会用来交易和为我的风险融资 So I probably wouldn't put I-I mean, I might do that, but I probably would, you know, be a very short stay, you know, a lot of it would be trading and and and financing my risk.
如果我在6月1日如此集中 我就会收回之前十天的大部分收益 If I was that concentrated on june 1, I gave back most of the gains I made in the previous ten days.
我在未平仓交易中赚了5% I had a few 5% profits on open positions.
在平均亏损约为4%的情况下 在5%或更多的时候在10%获利 这样做合适吗 Is it okay to take some profits at 5% and more at 10% when average loss is about 4 %?
从数学上看他们的平均利润是7 5%而不是4% Well, you you're mathematically they're at a seven and a half percent profit on average versus a four.
事实上 这是可行的 如果你赢了 赚了4 5%的钱 输了赚了4%的钱 那就是赚了百分之四的钱 And that works a matter of fact, look, if you were to make, if you were to have, um, make 4.5% on your winners, and you were to lose 4% on your losers, that would be a money maker at percent.
但这里有个问题 你可能要做上千次交易才能获得回报 即使你把整个账户都算进去 也许你把整个账户都算进去 但如果你是相对多元化的 我是说 让我们看看25%的仓位 你可以直接进入计算器 输入结果 基本假设 预测 然后输入数字 But here's the problem you'd have to do probably thousands of trades to make a return, even if you put your whole account, well, maybe if you put your whole account, but if you were relatively diversified, I mean, let's see a 25% positions, and you could just go in, go into our calculator, go into result, base assumption, forecast, and put in the numbers.
你在问我 你在问我一个你可以得到的问题 你可以得到一个数学答案 好吗 You're asking me, you're asking me a question that you can get, you can get a mathematical answer to, okay?
你可以看到你需要多少交易 And you can see exactly how many trades it would take you.
减去复利 它不是复利的结果是基于假设预测的计算器 但你可以很好地了解它会给你带来什么以及你需要做多少训练 Minus compounding, it's not going to compound and the result based assumption forecast calculator, but you can get a really good idea of what that's going to yield you as far as how much training you're going to have to do.
看 如果你的边非常小 你要翻转它很多次 So look, if your edge is really tiny, you've got to turn it over a lot of times.
如果它很大 你需要更少的翻转 If it's large, you have to turn it over less.
这是你必须要做的决定 That's a decision that you have to make.
至于你想做多少工作 你知道的 还有 还有 你知道的 As far as how much work you want to do, um, you know, and, and, you know.
如果你有那么多机会在你想要达到目标的时间范围内 让我们看看是什么 And if you have those, that many opportunities in the time frame that you want to reach your goal, uh, let's see what.
WRLB和5月26日 这是一次适当的回调吗 WRLB And May 26. Was it a proper pullback by it?
让我们看看WRB 我不记得那个符号了 Let's take a look at WRB I don't remember that symbol, um.
我5月26日 让我们看看 I May 26. So let's see.
我有预感 5月20号 6号就在这里 就在这里 I have a feeling. May 20, six is right here, right here.
我说 确保我想对了5月26日 I said, make sure I'm thinking it right may 26.
好吧 我不知道你是怎么把它当做回拉的 它甚至从来没有回拉 它裂开了 W-R-B Okay, I'm not sure how you have it as a pullback by when it didn't even never pulled back, it gapped out.
所以我不知道 我可能我可能会错过什么 但是 不 那只是一个间隙 从一个甚至不是真的没有坑 So I-I don't know, I might if I might be missing something, but, um, no, that's just a gap out of a not even don't even really have a pit.
它正好从右边伸出来 It just came right out the right side.
你从来没有真正的枢轴形式 所以你就买了 基本上就是一个没有把手的杯子 或者 或者 你知道 一个没有没有枢轴的骗子 You never really had a pivot form there, so you just bought it, you know, basically a cup without a handle, or, or, you know, a cheat without a without a pivot.
嗯 你可以试试 我的意思是 我是直接从右边开始的 Um, you can try that. I mean, I am straight up off the off the right side.
它只是降低了概率 因为很多时候你会得到回调你会建立那个枢轴 It's just lowers the probability, um, because a lot of times you'll get pullbacks and and you'll build that pivot out.
但是 不 这不是撤退 But, uh, but no, it's not a pull back by.
但 But
5月25日WestonW-E-S的时候 买这个手柄合适吗 West on W-E-S on may 25, was it a proper buy in the handle?
那么 我们来看看 So, uh, let's take a look.
在那里 就在这里 嗯 是的 但是你买了它 当然你是在现在 这是一个拉回 所以我不知道你们是否把他们搞混了 但这是一个拉回 嗯 通过2657购买 你从手柄内的小作弊区域拉回 There. That is right here. Um, yeah, but you bought it, of course you bought it on Now, this was a pullback by, so I don't know if you got them confused, but this is a pullback by, um, buying through the 2657 that you pull back by off the little cheat area within the handle.
我可能会 如果我要做这笔交易 我可能会把我的部分头寸放在这里然后希望它收紧 然后在这个会议区域 或者这个 你知道 这个有供应的区域爆发 I probably, if, you know, if I was going to make this trade, I'll probably take part of my position here and then hope that it would tighten up and set up and then break out above this conference area, or this, you know, this area where there was supply right here.
我想看到这个收紧 但它没有 收紧几天 如果是这样 我可能会从这里开始 然后在这里增加 I would want to see this tighten up, which it did not, um, and tighten up for a couple of days, and if it did this, I'd probably start some here, and then add here.
如果我没有得到这个 那么我就会得到一个更小的位置 And then if I didn't get that, then I would just be in with a smaller position.
呃 当它向上移动时 好的 我们看这里 Uh? As it moved up, OK, let's see here.
马克在5月11日买了K先生 Mark, uh, bought mr K on may 11.
M-R-K 现在又回来了 M-R-K, and it's now coming back.
这被认为是正常行为吗 嗯 Is that considered normal action? Um?
让我们看看你买它的第一个基金标记 And let's 1st fund mark where you bought it.
这是男11号 也就是5月11号 就在这里 So that's on male 11th, which is may 11, right here.
我觉得买个东西挺好的 I think a purchase was fine.
这大概是我们启动警报的时候 Um, this was about the time we had it on by alert.
所以我认为 这有点过头了 So this came back, I think, a little bit excessively.
它突破了20日移动平均线 It came through the 20 day moving average.
所以很多时候这些会保持20天移动平均线 So a lot of times these will hold the 20 day moving average.
但就像我说的 我不会基于20的移动平均线买入 But like I said, I wouldn't buy based on the 20 moving average.
但它但它确实挺过来了 But it But it did come through it.
它一直回到爆发处 所以它确实回来得有点过分了 And it came all the way back down to the breakout, so it did come back a little bit excessively.
你也可以看到 这里有1到 这里有3个低能级1到2个低能级 You could see, also, you've got one to you got three lower lows here after one, two lower lows.
所以你知道 在过去的6个或7个交易日中 有5个低点 So you've got, you know, like five lower lows out of like, the six last six or seven trading days.
嗯 所以问题是 一个被认为是正常的行为吗 Um. So the question is, is a considered normal action?
我认为现在很正常 但是橡胶在这里碰到了道路 就像这样 它需要得到支持 I think right now it is normal, but the rubber has is meeting the road right here, like this, is where it needs to get support.
如果这个再掉下来 它又掉了一个 又变低了 你知道 If this comes off again, and it takes out another, makes another low, here it, you know.
这可以归结为50天 这可能 你知道 它可能会支持这50天 这可能是最后一个在这里尝试的mohagens And it could come down to the 50 day, that that might, uh, you know, it might get it supported the 50 day, and that would be sort of the last of the mohagens in tries here.
我真的希望看到50天之后的支撑 所以也许再削弱一次 然后就会变得非常不正常 I'd really want to see the support back the 50 day, so maybe one more undercut, and then it would get very abnormal.
所以 它有点弱 但还不足以卖出 So it's, it's a tad bit weak, but not enough to sell.
也许你把你的头寸减半 Maybe you cut your position in half.
这可能是 你知道 如果它从这里减弱 你把它切成两半 That might be a, you know, if it weakens from here, you cut your you cut it in half.
让你移动你的止损点实现收支平衡获得5%的回报 承担5%的风险 Um, let your move your stop to break even once achieve a 5% return, taking a 5% risk?
不 不一定 我通常不会为了5%的收益而停下来不赔不赚 No, not necessarily, I would um so that usually I do not move to stop to break even on a 5% gain.
这只是不够的收益 它太容易阻止你的收支平衡 It's just not enough gain, and it's too easy to have it stop you out a break even.
所以我很可能不会 但那要看你的时间表了 So I-I most likely would not, but that depends on your time frame.
如果你的短期交易 非常短期的交易 非常紧的交易停止了 那么是的 你会 但是对于春季交易 If your short term trading and and very short term trading, very tight stops, then yes, you would, you know, but for spring trading?
没有 你觉得V-C-P怎么样 No. What do you think about V-C-P?
在一个稍微下降的基地 像C-Q-pistic看看C-Q-p In a slightly descending base like C-Q pistic Look at C-Q-P.
马克随时都可以插话 And Mark feels free to chime in any time you want.
如果你有什么要补充的 Uh, if you have anything to say to add.
呃 所以 avcP Uh. So, a v. c. P.
所以这是vc So this is a v. c.
p 嗯 你知道 这里有一些供应 你知道 首先 你知道 这里有很大的下降 这是非常急剧的 P. Um, you know, there is some supply here, you know, 1st of all, you had this pretty big, you know, decline right here, that's pretty sharp.
这是你想要的 如果你想要的话 Now, this is where you want to have it, if you're gonna have it.
哦 不 它说它可能会取消静音 Oh no. So it says it might unmute.
我不是哑巴 希望你们能解开发卡 I am not on mute. So hopefully you guys your hairmail.
你们听到了吗 如果你的头发是我的 请举手 好了 大家都听到了 所以你要做你的 你要做你的 就在这里 你有一个非常急剧的下降 You guys hear me, raise your hand if your hair me Okay, everybody's hearing me, so you'd make your on you're on you So right here you got this pretty sharp decline.
我不确定 你知道吗 如果这是新闻 但你确实希望它发生在左边 如果你要有它 那就是你想要的地方 And I'm not sure, you know what, if that was on some news, but you do want it to happen on the left side, if you're going to have it, that's where you want it.
从那以后 就一直在整合 如果你在这画一条线 你会有很多供给 你会在下跌后直接进入这里的供给 Since then, it's been consolidating, but, you know, again, this is, uh, you know, if you draw a line across here, you've got a lot of supply, you know, you're going right into the supply here after a good decline.
嗯 所以这不是我关注的重点 Um. So this is not high up on my radar because of that.
我只是 我只是觉得里面也有很多红色 I just, I just think it's lot of red in there, too.
马克 有很多红色 Mark. There's a lot of red.
有很多红色 如果你运行 你知道 它可能 如果你运行Monolert 你可能会看到很多低落的日子 There's a lot of red. If you ran, you know, it's probably, if you ran the um Monolert on this, you'd probably see a lot of down days.
还有 我觉得就在这里 And, you know, just, I think right here too.
它可能承受着压力 看起来这可能符合有压力的标准 It's probably under pressure. It looks like this would probably meet the criteria for being under pressure.
它还没有在这里出现 所以我想我更希望它在这里出现 It hasn't yet really turned up here, so I think it I'd rather see it set up up here.
看 这就是 但我总是说 你不想要最低的价格 你想要合适的价格 See, this is where. But I always say, you don't want the lowest price, you want the right price.
这就是一个很好的例子 This is a perfect example of that.
我宁愿买这个如果它在这里 然后可以做很多它已经做的事情 也许这样做 从这里开始收紧 然后从那里出来 Where I would rather be buying this if it came up here and then could do pretty much what it's done already now here, and maybe did this and started tightening from here, and then came out from there.
我宁愿在那里买 I would rather buy it there.
我更愿意在那里买 因为现在 I would prefer to buy it there, because now I'm,
我给了它更多的时间 首先 远离这些供给 I've given it more time. 1st of all, to get further away from this supply.
这里我已经收紧得很好了 就在最小的这条线上 I've tightened up quite nicely here, right at the line of least
阻力 或者我通过收紧形成阻力最小的光 resistance, or I form the light of least resistance by tightening.
现在当我穿过这里 我穿过了支点 同时 我清除了供应 And now when I get through there, I get through the pivot, and at the same time, I clear the supply.
这不是供给 不 两天 那不是供给 And this isn't supply, no, two days, that's not supply.
但所有这些 所有这些突起 这是 But all this, all these bumpings up here, that's
供应 这就是我想要的 supply. So that's what I would prefer.
我总是说 我让股票选择我 或者股票来找我 So see, I always say, I let the stocks pick me or the stocks come to me.
所以我不会强迫 So I'm not going to force
它 我要等 如果这一切都没有发生 it. I'm going to wait. And if that set up doesn't happen.
现在 事情是这样的 有人会喜欢 看到了吗 Now, here's what happens though. Someone will like, see this?
然后这个发生了 你知道 爆炸 And then this happens. You know, bang.
它起飞了 就像 大海 It takes off, and the, like, sea.
我就知道我该买的 I knew I should have bought that.
不 结果不能证明方法是正确的 Well, no, the result doesn't justify the means.
好吧 你知道 我想从低风险进入 我想从我知道会发生什么的进入 我想要最大的概率 Okay, um, you know, I want to go from a low risk entry, and I want to go from an entry where I know what to expect, and I want the highest probability.
这并不意味着我不会输于a 这并不意味着我不会赢于一双鞋 And that doesn't mean that I'm not going to lose with aces, does it mean that I'm not gonna win with a pair of shoes.
但它们不是高概率或低概率的牌 所以我想玩的是 你知道 最高概率的牌 But they're not high probability or low probability hands, so I'm trying to play the, you know, the highest probabilities.
让我们看看 当前的市场是一个宽松的美元环境吗 Let's see, is the current market an easy dollar environment?
马克 你认为现在的美元环境好吗 Mark Would you consider this an easy dollar environment yet?
我想说 我们可能正处于一个新的宽松美元环境的诞生阶段 I would say we're potentially at the birthing of a new easy dollar environment.
是啊 我觉得上个星期的事很容易 Yeah, I'd say the last week or so's ben easy dollar.
是的 是的 你知道的 It has, it has been, you know.
这就是为什么 看 事实是 我们把茎移到绿色意味着美元容易赚 就在这里 And that's why, look, the fact that we move stem to green means easy dollar, right there.
那是错误 那是容易的美元 That by the fault, that's as easy dollar.
我现在相信它了吗 Do Am I-A believer of it yet?
不 我不是 但是 我的观点是 这没有任何意义 因为有很多很多次我们会变成东美元的环境 No, I'm not. But that, again, my opinion, means nothing, because very there's many, many times will we morph into an East Dollar environment?
我一直不相信它 直到我赚了40%的钱 然后我觉得 好吧 我现在相信它了 I'm not a believer in it until after I made 40% of my money, and then I'm like, okay, I believe it now.
现在我你知道了 我涨了40% Now that I you know, I'm up 40 %.
所有的股票都涨了出来 只有眼泪 And all the stocks broke out, but tears.
我不会等待我的信念付诸行动 The thing I don't wait for my belief to act.
我不会让它 我不会让尾巴摇狗 I don't let that, I don't let that tail wag the dog.
当我害怕得要死的时候 我就在那里买东西 I'm in there buying when I'm scared to death.
这就是我的原则 And and I'm that's the discipline.
你知道 对一些人来说 这样做很难 但我做了这么长时间 马克也做了这么长时间 我们已经取得了足够的成功 我们全心全意地知道这甚至不是一种信仰 It's tough, you know, to for some people to do that, but I've been doing this so long, and mark's been doing it so long, and we have enough success with it that we, we wholeheartedly know it's not even a belief.
我们知道我们绝对知道什么是有效的 你知道 这是正确的决定 We have a knowing we absolutely know what works and and and and that this is, you know, the right move to make.
即使我们在这一步上输了 我们相信未来一切都会在概率曲线上解决 Even if we were to lose on that move, we believe in the future that it will all work out on on a probability curve.
让我们看看 为什么我们不卖F-L和F-L-n-g 还有力量 嗯 F-L-n-g Let's see, why didn't we sell F-L and F-L-N-G And the strength, um, F-L-N-G?
是的 你得问马克·里奇 因为他在车上的时候把这支股票放在了车标下方 Yeah, you have to ask Mark Ritchie, because he put this stock on right under the bus mark when in the bus.
我是说 你为什么要这么做 你为什么要在一天之内卖掉 I mean, why would you? Why would you sell in one day?
我的意思是 如果你是一个非常短线的交易者你使用了一个非常紧的止损点 你绝对可以减持 I mean, look, if you're really short term trader and you used a really tight stop, you absolutely could have taken off a piece.
这和我想的一样 This is actually doing what I thought I would do it.
它是通过一个小的低单 然后一直下降到30级左右 我认为你可能会得到一个二级点 这也是为什么我不会 你知道 不买你的所有头寸 通过这种低欺骗 It kind of came through that little low sheet, and it kept falling out right there around the 30 level, and I think you may get a secondary by point, which is also why I wouldn't, you know, don't buy your entire position through that low cheat.
没错 然后等着看它会有什么反应 That's right, and then wait to see how it acts.
是的 如果它是这样的 可能会有几个低点 两个或三个低点 然后从那里跳出来 Yeah, if this does something like this, maybe get a couple lower lows, two or three lower lows, and then pops out from there.
现在你有了这种自然反应 Now you've got that natural reaction.
那是最有可能的情况 嗯嗯 你实际上在这里停滞了一点 That's the most probable, uh uh, scenario, is that you actually stall here a bit.
但是没有太多的间接供应 But there's not a whole lot of overhead supply.
你看 不像其他股票 这里的问题少得多 可以这么说 See, unlike that other stock, there's, it's a lot less A-A problem here, if you will.
航空公司的航班少多了 对吧 There's a lot less C-A traffic, right?
你总是往左边看有没有车辆 You always look to your left for traffic.
你不会有那么大的下降 You don't have as big of a decline.
你不会经历剧烈的衰退 You don't have as violent of a decline.
这个下降大约在2020年 3% This decline here is about 2020, 3% um.
这并不是看起来那么混乱 但仍然有一些供应从这些低点回落 And and again, it's just not as a chaotic looking so, but it's still, there is some supply that's coming off these lows.
你们可能会在这里稍作停顿 And you may get a little pause here.
但是 我们通常不会卖出上涨5-6% 甚至7%的股票 But again, we're not looking, usually to sell stocks that are up five or 6 %, even 7 %.
是的 这是录音 有人问是否有录音 And yes, this is recorded. Some people are asking if it's recorded.
记录吗 我希望我有时会搞砸 It is recorded? I hope I sometimes mess that up.
让我确认一下 是的 它在录音 Let me just make sure, yep, it's recording.
所以我们要重放这个 So we'll have this for replay.
嗯 所以 你知道 如果现在 如果你是短期培训 你可以卖这个 Um. So again, you know, if now, if you are short term training, you could be selling this.
是的 在第一天 你要全力以赴 Yes, on that 1st day, bang right into strength.
一旦你获得数学上合理的利润 它就会爆发 相对于你知道你通常会做的止损 或者你在交易中承担的风险 It breaks out as soon as you get at a profit that makes sense mathematically, versus the stop that you you know you're you're generally taking, or the risk that you took on the trade.
当然 你可以卖 绝对没有错 Sure, you can sell it. Absolutely Nothing wrong with that.
如果你想做这么多工作 你想做短期交易 If you want to do that amount of work, and you want, you want a short term trade.
就像我经常告诉你的 无论短期 但也有短期波动 它们都是从同一点开始的 Like I always tell you all the trades, whether the short term, but there are scalp short term swing, they're from the exact same by point.
我不改变点 I don't change the by point.
在我自己的个人交易中 我没有改变任何东西 除了我卖的地方和我承担的风险 And in my own personal trading, I'm not changing anything, except where I sell and the risk I take.
在这样的交易中 如果你想把止损点定在当天较低的位置 假设是2% 股票当日上涨6% 你用2r 3r交易 很好 So on a trade like this, you go in if you want to set your stop at the lower the day, and that happens to be, let's say, 2% and stocks up 6% that day, and you got yourself with, you know, two, three R trade, fine.
你知道 如果你想这么快交易就得做更多的工作 You know, you just gonna have to do a lot more work if you want to trade that quick.
而且 你知道 你肯定要做更多的工作 And, you know, you're definitely going to have to do more work.
让我想想 虽然我们有很多公司的业绩都不错 但有些公司的利润还处于中等水平 Uh, let's see, even though we have a lot of names that are holding up, some of them are still in middling profit.
你还会保守吗 Would you still be conservative in
提高曝光率的条件 奖励挑衅的设置 更有指示性 以获得侵略性 terms of ramping up exposure? Award the provocation of setups, be more indicative, to get aggressive?
我认为这是一个很好的问题 这也是我认为人们逐渐接触的错误之处 I think that's a great question, and this is where I think people go wrong with progressive exposure.
再强调一遍 你完全可以这么说 那里有中等的利润 但你必须问一下 你是否认为你会进入 你知道 5个 8个或10个名字 所有的东西都会上升 你知道 你会有所有的 And mark again, you could definitely speak to this, and and where there's middling profits, but you have to ask if you think you're going to go into, you know, five or eight or ten names, and everything's going to be up big, you know, and you're gonna have all
足够多的利润 一切都在告诉你 比如绿色 比如绿色 enough profits where everything's telling you, like green, like green.
那是不可能的 这种情况几乎从未发生过 That's not gonna happen. Almost never does that happen.
有些股票上涨了几个百分点 有一两只上涨了 表现很好 有一两只下跌了一点 也许中间有7%到8%的股票 你可能在短期获利的边缘 You have some stocks are up a few per cent, one or two that take off and are really good, one or two that are down a little bit, and maybe some middle seven, 8% that you're at the borderline of maybe taking a short term profit.
但你会问 股票交易是否平衡 And but you have to ask, are the stock trades working on balance?
以我自己的平衡 是赢家多于输家吗 In my own balance? Are the winners outweighing the losers?
他们的行为正确吗 这是最主要的 Are they acting right? That's the main thing.
他们是吗 他们的行为正确吗 Are they? Are they acting right?
我们还会看到更多类似的项目吗 And are we seeing more in the pipeline?
当你看一看 病毒列表现在是巨大的 一个巨大的警报列表 When you take a look, the viral list is gigantic now, a huge alert list.
在rCMT的维勒名单上 有一些股票的恐惧情绪飙升了15% There's stocks off the viler list at r CMT blasting off fear of 15 %.
另一个强大的游戏 你有股票在任何x点上 Another power play, you've got stocks that are up any x coming out here.
我们不仅有我们买的正在运行的股票 我们也有我们没有买的正在运行的股票 Not only do we have stocks that we've bought that are working, we've got stocks that we haven't bought that are working.
所以 是的 这里有足够的牵引力来确定你应该已经变得激进 你知道 或更激进 So yes, there's enough traction here to definitely you should have already been getting aggressive, you know, or more aggressive.
我们从红色到橙色再到绿色 所以你可以看到这个进展 你可以看到实时的逐步曝光 We went from red to orange to green, so you've seen this progress, and you've seen the progressive exposure in real time.
好吧 你觉得怎么样 Okay, what what do you think?
马克是的 我是说 我同意 Mark Yeah, I mean, I-I agree.
我唯一想说的是 不管出于什么原因 如果你买了两个名字 但是被叫停了 或者什么都没做 你就得慢一点 I the only thing I would say is if, for whatever reason that you maybe you bought two names that got stopped or went nowhere, you just got to go a little slower.
但马克的观点是 听着 这种情况有时会发生 你你从你的监视者那里抓来一两个名字 他们不会真正开始行动 But to mark's point about, listen, that can happen sometimes, you you grab the one or two names off of, uh, you know, your watchless that just don't, they don't really get going.
但如果有7到8个项目成功启动 那么你就有了一个扩展的列表 我最感兴趣的是周末的工作 But if seven or eight blast off, and then you've got an expanding list, I'm most interested to see sort of the weekend work.
这个名单还会保持强劲吗 Is the list going to stay robust?
然后 就像马克说的 如果我们暂停或撤回 这些名字还有效吗 And then, to mark's point, if we pause or pull back, do the names hold?
然后我们就会看到一个大浪 And then that's where we should really see a big wave.
是的 你可能会有下垂当你当你应该呈齐字形时 但那是正常的 Yeah, you may have a sag when you when you should a zig, but that that's normal.
这将会发生 有些时候 你会做得很好 市场下跌 你的表现就会好很多 That'll happen. And there'll be times when you zig, you know, and perfectly, and the market sags and you're out performing.
但问题是 还有一件事 But the thing is, here's another thing too.
当我说 你知道 你应该已经变得有攻击性了 因为 你知道 名字越来越多了 Don't feel like when I say, you know, you should already be getting aggressive, because, you know, the names are ramping up.
如果你没有 而且你更保守 你想等 这没问题 If you didn't, and you're more conservative, you want to wait, that's fine.
这没有什么错 耐心点 There's nothing wrong with that. Just just be patient.
有这是不会消失的 股市是不会消失的 There's This isn't going away. The stock market's not gonna go away.
不会像这是你唯一的机会 It's not going to be like This is your only chance.
还有你 女士 你的黄金机会 And you Ms., your golden opportunity.
这种事再也不会发生了 你会有很多很多的机会 That'll never happen again. You're going to have plenty, plenty plenty of opportunities.
所以我更希望看到你真的非常非常害怕 而不是不能扣动扳机 而不是高兴地扣动扳机 你知道 不尊重风险 So I would much rather see you be really, really scared and not and not being able to pull a trigger more than trigger happy, and just, you know, and not respecting risk.
把一些人变成一个尊重风险的伟大交易员要比把一个牛仔变成一个不尊重休息的人容易得多 It's a lot easier to turn some into a great trader who respects risk than it is to somebody who's a cowboy and doesn't respect rest.
所以在演唱会的时候戴耳环绝对是最好的选择 So so the the earring on the concert side is definitely the better side to to lean towards.
TDW最近有一个强大的移动 并且有强大的发挥潜力 尽管 如果你检查多图 下跌超过99% TDW had a strong move recently, and has power play potential, although, if you check the multi chart, is down over 99 %.
这是把它从你的手表上取下来的理由吗 Would this be a reason to take take it off your watches?
我看看 T-D-W-我不知道这些符号 所以T-D-W每月下降99%我看看 Let's see, T-D-W-I don't know the symbols, so T-D-W down 99% on the monthly let's see.
好吧 那就 那就好 Yeah, okay, so that's, that's okay.
那是好多好多年前的事了 That's years and years and years back.
所以这对我来说并不重要 So that wouldn't matter to me.
你知道 我通常看五年 我的意思是 我会看长期的历史 知道这一点 You know, I usually look at a five year I mean, I will look at the long term history and know that.
但是 你知道 这是一个上升的阶段 But, you know, this has been in a stage to upturn.
你想看看它是否在向上走的阶段 You want to see if it's in a stage to uptread.
这是在第二阶段 作为补给 不像立即 It's in a stage two uptread as the supplies, not like immediate.
在过去的6个月里 8个月12个月内 你知道 如果你下降了 你知道 80% 嗯 6个月或一年前 这是直接进入它 是的 可能 Within the last six, 08:12 months, you know, if you were down, you know, 80 %, uh, six months or a year ago, and this is coming right into it, yeah, maybe.
但你回到这里 一 二 你知道 你回到了两年半 三年的高点 你处于上升趋势 But you go back here, one, two, you know, you're back at a two and a half, three year high, and you're in and up trends.
这很好 这是 这是 你知道 你可以考虑的 So this is fine. This is, this is something that, you know, you could consider.
让我们来看看 我对两件事很好奇 Let's see. So I'm curious about two things.
20天的角度有很多像50天的角度一样的暗示吗 Does the angle of the 20 day have much implications like the 50 day angle?
是的 它在更短的时间内 也基于陡度 Yes, it took in a shorter term time frame, and also based on the steepness.
如果你想买 你不太可能在20天内买 因为它更接近价格 So if you were to be buying, and it'd be more unlikely that you would with the 20 day, because it's close, more closely going to hug the price.
但是如果你想买 比如这里 你买这个低脸颊 就像我说的 立体声 不太可能发生 因为你不会买 But if you were to buy, like right here, you buy this low cheek right here, let's just say, and this, like I said, the stero, is not likely to happen, because you're not going to buy.
如果你遵守规则 你就不会落入这个陷阱 If you stick to the rules, you're not going to be under this snare.
但就像这样的20天 你买了这个骗子来这里 这将是一个问题 But let's just say the 20 days like that, and you were buying this cheat coming out here, that would be a problem.
这将是一个问题 但事情是这样的20天是可以逆转的 That would be a problem. But here's the thing The 20 day can turn around.
因为它只有20天 它可以很快变平 Because it's only a 20 day, it can turn around and flatten out very quickly.
所以这个问题不会持续太久 So the problem wouldn't last very long.
所以我用这个角度 我称之为角度D 角度D的警告 我发现50天是最重要的 So I with with the um, with the angle, what I call an angle D, with the angle D warning, I find that the 50 day is the one that is most
可靠给你 即使这样 你看股票 它们有 它们有角度的问题 你知道移动平均线在相反的方向 但它们仍然向右跑 reliable to give you. And even then, you get stocks, they have, they have the angle deep problem, where you know the the moving average is going opposite directions, and they still run up the right side.
它只是降低了概率 It's just it lowers the probability.
我想用它来做什么 或者当我看它的时候 我的分析告诉我 嘿 让我仔细看这个 And what I what I like to have it for, or what I look when I look at that, my analysis just tells me, hey, let me watch this real carefully and
看看它是如何运作的 也许我买的是被压缩的右侧 see how it acts. And maybe I might be buying a compressed right side.
它只是给了我一个提醒 或者一个或者一个黄色的旗子让我更好地认识右边 并试着 你知道 分析它 也许更仔细地看 看看我是否遗漏了什么 It just sort of gives me A-A-A heads up, or a or a yellow flag to be more cognizant of the right side, and to try to, you know, analyze it, maybe look more closely to see if I'm missing something.
我可能 你知道 有点迷恋 可能 在工作中的股票 我应该迷恋正被压缩的右边 And I might be, you know, getting a little enamored with, maybe, stocks at working, and I should get enamored with the right sides that are are getting compressed.
地雷警报的第二个问题两天扩音器警报的含义是什么 A 2nd question in mine alert What is the implication of a two day megaphone alert?
好吧 你知道 这并不是 嗯 你会经常看到的事情 它的影响也不是那么大 或者说它是一个大问题 Well, you know, that is not really, um, something you're going to see very often, and the implications are not that great, or like it's this big problem.
然而 这是波动性的扩大 However, it is a widening of volatility.
这取决于它发生的地点 嗯 你知道 你要小心一点 你知道 如果 如果 再一次 如果它是 对 它是在一个基地里 And depending on where it occurs, um, you know, you gotta be a little careful, you know, if, if, again, if it was, like, right, it was in a base.
就在这里 你看到这个大日子 就在这里 前一天 它在外面 假设这是一个外面的日子 And right here, you see this big day, right here, the previous day goes, it goes outside the previous day, Let's say like this is an outside day.
如果今天也是户外 就会出现很大的波动 对吧 Well, if this day was outside day, too, you're getting a lot of volatility, right?
波动性正在扩大 所以你想要开始忍耐 看看 你知道 这里发生了什么 以及在接下来的几天里可能会有什么反应 The volatility is widening. So you want to start holding in and seeing, you know, what's going on here, and and how is this going to maybe respond over the next few days?
这只是一个小小的警告 It's just a little bit of a warning.
我不确定我是不是 还没决定 我想把这个也写进去吗 I'm not sure I was actually, uh, undecided, would I even want to include that?
事实上 也许有一天它会被带走 And I that actually, may actually take that away some day.
我不知道 我把我自己找的东西都扔了 I-I don't know. I kind of just threw all the things that I look for myself.
但我得告诉你 这并不是一个很大的暗示 But that isn't really a big implication, I got to tell you.
让我们看看 嗯 对 对经济的评论 预警还是衰退 Let's see, um, yeah, comments on the economy, early warning or recession?
我注意到大家都在赶时髦 Well, I notice everybody's jumping on the bandwagon.
我们 你知道 高盛萨克斯说过经济衰退 We got, you know, goldman Sacks talked about a recession.
有些人说 哦 这场令人震惊的大衰退即将到来 Some people are saying, oh, this big, shocking recession's coming.
听着 这正是你想听的 Look, that's exactly what you want to hear.
你知道 你想听每个人说 伪装掉了 You know, you want to hear everybody saying, the disguise falling.
现在 我经常谈到我和斯坦第一次见面是在1990年10月 1990年10月 Now, I often talked about when I met, uh Stan winesting for the 1st time in 1990, october of 1990.
我在纽约 我在和马蒂的太太团开会 I'm in New York City. I'm at a conference with marty's Wag.
所有的通讯作者都在那里 All the newsletter writers were there.
斯坦·温斯坦 内德·戴维斯研究中心是他们的会议 Stan Winestein, ned Davis Research was their conference.
他们在展示 嗯 我在一个大桌子上 和所有这些人 你知道 他们是那个时代的大师 They were presenting, um, I was at this big table with all these guys that were, you know, they were the gurus of the time.
在场的每一个人 每一个人 都看空市场 Every single person in the room, every single person, was bearish on the market.
他们不只是看空 他们说 你知道 我们要进入1970年的长期熊市的通货膨胀 因为石油是起飞 在那里 你知道 战争和伊拉克 嗯 我在那个时候 我有一个非常小的 小的 嗯嗯 我正在尝试 呃 当时的咨询业务 我有这个 我有一个非常小的小客户 和我说 嗯 我认为我们是触底 And they weren't just bearish. They said that, you know, we were going to go into a 1970 long term bear market inflation, because oil was taken off, and where, you know, war and Iraq, um and And I had, at the time, I-I had a very small, little, uh uh, I was taking a stab at the, uh, the advisory business at the time, and I had this, I had a very small little client base, and I put out and said, I thought we were bottoming, um.
然后我开始展示一些股票组合 我的案例是 每个人都看空 所有这些股票组合 市场在说 你知道 我们将在这里爆发 当所有这些股票爆发时 USurgical和Amgen这些公司最终成为最大的赢家 And then I started showing some stock setups, and my case was, everybody's bearish, and there's all these stock setups, and the market is saying that, you know, we're going to break out here, when all these stocks are breaking out, a bases that was U Surgical and Amgen and all these names that turn out to be the biggest winners.
这最终成为了人类历史上最大的牛市之一 And that turned out to be one of the biggest bull markets ever in the history of mankind.
所以 你知道 我喜欢这里在每个人的教区 So, you know, I love here in everybody's parish.
如果你这么想 我就会改变我的交易 因为伊兰·马斯克说他担心经济 或者 你知道 任何人 我不管他是谁 在这个星球上没有一个人会说他们 呃 他们认为会发生一些事情 And if you think that, I'm going to change my trading, because Eland Musk says he's worried about the economy or, you know, anybody, I don't care who it is, there's not a human being on the face of the planet that could say they, uh, they think something's gonna happen.
它会让我改变我40年来的知识和技能 It's gonna make me change my 40 years of of of knowledge and skill.
不 这对我来说毫无意义 No, it doesn't mean anything to me.
我 我 我想听你这么说 I-I-I-I-I want to hear that actually.
我只想听每个人都这么说 Um, I just want to hear everybody say that.
我希望能达成完全一致 I want it to be like a total agreement.
如果真的发生了 好吧 我们会被排除在股票之外 And if it happens, fine, we'll, we'll get stopped out of the stocks.
我的意思是 你们不能再这样担心未来 试图预测未来了 I mean, you know, it's again, you guys gotta stop with this worrying about the future and trying to prognosticate.
我干这行40年了 I've been doing this for 40 years.
40年来 我赚的钱比大多数从事这个职业的人想的都要多 40 years, I've made more money than than than most people ever think about doing this profession.
你猜怎么着 我完全不知道会发生什么 And guess what? I don't have a clue as to what's gonna happen.
我不知道 我不知道 我当然不知道 I don't know. I don't know, and I certainly not.
即使我知道 我也不会相信自己的观点当我被指控告诉我该怎么做的时候 Even if I did know, I'm not going to trust my opinion when I've got the charge to tell me exactly the play that I need to make.
就像 想象你在玩扑克 然后你 嗯 你知道 我认为 你知道 你知道 不是一个王牌有一段时间了 It's like, just imagine you're playing poker, and you're going, hmm, you know, I think, you know, hasn't been an ace in a while.
我想王牌就要来了 I think an ace is coming.
你敢打赌吗 You want to put your money on that?
我的意思是 如果只是等待埃斯的到来 会有什么更好的呢 I mean, how would it be better just to wait for when o Ace comes?
然后你下注 现在 你面前有一个as 你知道 赔率 Then you place your bet, and now, you know, there's an as in front of you, and, you know, the odds.
我的意思是 那要容易得多 你知道 要少做很多工作而且而且要准确得多 嗯 在一天结束的时候是怎么开始清理支点的 I mean, that's a lot, a lot easier, you know, a lot less work and and and a lot more accurate, uh, how started to clear the pivot at the end of the day?
天气放晴时就该说再见 还是需要再说一次 Would it have been a good bye as it cleared, or needed another
在你买它的前一天 day before you would buy it.
所以 我把这个涂在了什么东西上 因为有一堆东西被拿掉了 So, and I put this on just something, because a bunch of it just taken out.
这不是一个小轴心 它在这里卡住了 右边 右边 你的问题是什么 It isn't a little pivot. It wedges its way up here, this right side, up the right side, you know, I what's your question?
到底是什么 我要确保我做对了 Exactly? I'm going to make sure I got it right.
再见吧 如果天放晴了 Been a good bye, if it cleared,
你知道 看一看再见 you know, look a good bye.
我是说 我不知道 我是说 你知道 我不会买的 I mean, I don't know, I mean, you know, it would be, I wouldn't buy it.
我才不信呢 这里 它卡住了 I'm not gonna buy it. Here, it wedged up.
这行得通 行得通 And it could work, it could work.
但这样 它就卡住了 But this way, it wedged up here.
嗯 还有一些我已经投资的股票 Um. And there's other stocks that I'm already in.
你知道 如果我没有买那些股票 我会买这个吗 You know, if I wasn't in those stocks, would I buy this?
不 在周五 在一天结束的时候 我不会买 No, on a Friday, at the end of the day, I wouldn't buy it.
我将等待 让我们来看看 JMSB 我们来看看 I would wait. Let's see. JMSB, J-M-S-B, let's take a look.
这很有趣 我们看一下 它上升了 只有30% Yeah, so this is interesting. Let's see, it's going up, OK, only 30 %.
这只增加了30% So this is only going up 30 %.
所以这不是一场权力游戏 And so it's not a power play.
然而 这个动作 这是一家银行 所以我已经把它贴现为一家银行 However, this action right here. And this is a bank, so I already would discount it being a bank.
这可能是一家小银行 因为它叫预约交易 That's probably a little bank, because it'll call it Trades by appointment.
嗯 但这是一个 你知道的 完美的动作 我不应该说它是完美的 因为你有 体积在这个狭窄的区域增加了 所以体积完美地下降了 Um. But this is a, you know, perfect action as far as well, I shouldn't say it's perfect because you have, the volume is increased here in this real tight area, so perfectly be the volume came way down.
这有点可疑 如果这是一场强攻 我会全力追查越狱的 So that's a little suspicious. If this was a power play, I would be all over this on a breakout.
不过 你能在这里买吗 But, um, you know, could you buy it here?
把它吗 当然 你知道 你可以 Turn it up? Sure, you know, you could.
这是一个小的VCP设置 但它不符合权力发挥的标准 It's a little VCP set up, but it doesn't meet the power play criteria.
O-P-C-H 我们怎么买回调和回调由去买什么 O-P-C-H. How do we buy pullback versus pull back by went to buy what?
莉莉也一样吗 我不确定那是什么意思 但我会试一试 Same with Lily? I'm not sure what that means, but I'll take a crack at it.
我是说 我不明白你怎么问我的 我们怎么买 O-P-C-H-I mean, I don't understand how you're asking me, how do we buy it?
我买了它 所以我给你看了 你知道的 拉回 I bought it, so I showed you, um, you know, a pull back.
我买了一个拉回后 它在这里尖刺出基地 I bought a pull back after it it spiked up here out of the base.
我跟你说了我认为会发生的事 I told you I exactly what I thought would happen.
基于 你知道 我已经见过这些东西一百万次了 它可能会再回来一点 找到一些支撑 然后可能建立另一个 一个新的支点 然后我们会添加它 And based on, you know, I've seen these things a million times, that it would probably come back a little bit more, find some support, and then possibly set up another, a new pivot, and then we would add to it.
这就是发生的事情 所以现在我想要的是 也许可以进去 如果周一进去 然后越狱 也许第二天 嘭 你就进去了 That's exactly what's happened. So now what I'm looking for is it to maybe go inside, if and go inside on Monday and break out, maybe the next day, boom, you're in.
我的意思是 如果周一股价下跌 你甚至可以买入 但我更喜欢从那里买入 然后我就会 你知道 我就会增持 然后我就会从那里买入 I mean, you could even be in if it just moves out on Monday, but I would prefer to go inside and break out from there, and then I would, you know, I would add to the position, then I would bump the position from there.
一个拉回来 必须建立一个拉回来 你知道 必须拉回来 然后像这样建立一个枢轴 A pull back by, would have to set up a pull back by, you know, would have to pull back and then set up a pivot like that.
拉回内较低 百合 我不喜欢 我也喜欢百合 Lower within the pull back. Um, lilies, I don't, I'm, I'm in lily too.
所以 你知道 我想我已经给你演示过怎么弹了 So, you know, again, um, I-I think I showed you exactly how to play it.
这里是你的后撤点 Here's your pull back by over here.
从那以后 它现在它在做这个把手 Um, since then, it's now it's just building this handle out.
它在没有支点的情况下跑到了右边 很多时候 你会得到一个更大的反应 因为它没有时间消化最近几周的支点 It ran up the right side without a pivot, and a lot of times when you get that, you'll get a wider reaction because it didn't have the time to digest those last few week holders.
而现在你一跑上去 就变成了转卖从没有消化过的 你懂的 牵手一周 And now when you run up, it runs into subselling from the non digested, uh, you know, week holding hands.
在这一点上 你知道 这将把它拉回来一点 有时更过分 然后你会建立右边 你可能会建立一个把手 And at that point, you know, that will pull it back a bit more, sometimes a little more excessively, and then you'll build that right side, and you'll build maybe a handle.
这就是正在发生的事情 让我看看今天音量如何 So that's what's happening there. Let me see how was volume today.
我还没看 所以我不知道 我错过了这周的F-L-N-G和P-R-C-T 因为它们升得太快了 I didn't look yet, so I don't know, um, I missed a break on F-L-N-G and P-R-C-T this week, as they went up so fast.
有什么可以告诉我们的线索来抓住这种大爆发吗 Any tell tale signs of tips to catch these kind of big breakouts?
是的 看看布勒列表 Yeah. Look at the Buyler list.
这就是为什么我们这就是为什么我们会给你一张买家名单 我们会教你寻找什么 因为它会给你一些提示 That's why we that's why we give you the Buyler list, and we teach you what to look for, because it's giving you a heads up.
这些是我们最有可能的股票 These are the stocks that we are most likely.
我们在这里进行的90%的交易都将来自无票务者 90% of the trades that we're going to make on here are going to be from the bilerless.
不是每一个 而是90%到95%的 Not every single one, but 90 to 95% of them.
所以你要注意了 So you have a heads up.
嗯 然后 当然 当股票开始上涨时 寻找这些迹象 Um. And then, of course, look for those signs as the stock starts moving in.
现在 你可以设置提醒 Today, you can set your alerts.
这就是这条线 That's what this little line is right here.
这些是 这些是警报 我移动这个 然后看到那个 These are these are alert I move this around and alert to see that.
我此举 它给了我 它给了我一个视觉 它给了我一个 嗯 一个音频 I move that. And it gives me, it gives me a visual, and it gives me a, um, an audio.
你可以设置它们 甚至在主轴之前设置它们 所以你知道当它开始移动 它开始向上移动 它接近主轴 所以你准备好了 So you can set those and set them even before the pivot, so you know when it starts moving, it starts moving up, and it's getting near that pivot, so you're ready.
当然 你可以和你的经纪人下订单 让你的订单打开 Of course, you can set orders with your broker and have your your orders open.
嗯 让我们看看 我最近一直很注意自己的曝光率 Um, let's see. I've been very careful with my exposure attraction recently.
我取得了一些进展并添加了一些内容 但我认为最糟糕的情况并没有因为增加了曝光度而真正改善 I have made some progress and added but my worst case scenario is not really improving because of adding exposure.
你还好吗 如果你的最坏情况保持不变 而曝光率上升 你还好吗 Are you OK? Are you OK if your worst case stays flat while exposure goes up?
或者你试图确保你最坏的情况随着暴露程度的上升而上升 Or you try to make sure your worst case is moving up along with exposure?
这是个好问题 我喜欢这样的问题 谈论风险 以及如何 你知道 一个位置 管理风险 That's a great question. I love questions like this that talk about risk and how to, you know, a position, managed the risk.
我第一次给你违约 I'm gonna 1st default to you.
马克 你怎么看 Mark, what do you think about that?
据你所知 没有 As far as you know, not
改善最坏的情况 我认为他是 improving your worst case scenario. And I think what he's
说不是改善 可能是马上 但是 但是我不想 我不想喂你 saying is not improving. It may be immediately, but, but I don't want to, I don't want to feed you.
的答案 你怎么看你怎么看 Answers. What do you What do you think about that?
对吧 是的 好问题 所以 是的 我通常会这样想 我认为他的意思是我还没有能够移动我的停止 Right? Yes, A good question. And so, yeah, I would normally think of it in terms of, I think what he means is I haven't been able to move my stops up.
因此 在 So in
如果我所有的仓位都失败了 我是否承担了太多的风险 the sense of, if I get knocked on all the positions, am I taking too much risk?
这就是你需要问自己一系列问题的地方 比如 你是否有足够的开放PML来依靠 And this is where you have to ask yourself a series of questions in terms of, do you have enough open PML to lean on
意思是 假设你买了两个名字 它们涨了 就像你之前说的 比如F-L-N-G 可能涨了5% meaning, let's say you buy two names, they're up, like you said earlier, like the F-L-N-G, maybe they're up 5 %.
你可不想为了收支平衡而把它扼杀掉 You don't want to move that to break even and choke it off.
好吧 如果你想增加足够的曝光量你不想让它们全部停止 那么至少在你的头脑中 你知道 如果一切开始发生变化 你就必须在某个地方减少曝光量 Well, if you're going to add enough exposure where you you don't want to take all of them to stops, then at least in your head, you know, uh, if everything starts to turn, you're going to have to start cutting exposure somewhere.
我倾向于这样想 That's how I tend to think about it.
所以如果我不能改善最坏的情况 也就是把止损点向上移动 那么我就知道我必须要减少至少要砍掉最坏的位置 甚至在止损点到达之前 或者类似的事情 So if I can't improve my worst case scenario, meaning by moving the actual physical stop up, then I know I have to be willing to reduce and at least cut the position that's acting the worst, even before it hits a stop, or something like that.
如果我想补充更多 很好的观点 绝对有洞察力 你知道 完全清楚 让我告诉你 你知道你的目标 记住 你的目标是改善最坏的情况 但这是对你所做的事情的回应 If I want to add more, great point, absolutely as clairvoyant as you can be in that, you know, completely clear and and let me just tell you this You know your goal, remember, your goal is to improve your worst case scenario, but that is in response to what you're dealt.
所以当股票开始波动时 如果你得到了这个机会 这在数学上是有意义的 你不仅仅是为了提高它而提高它 So as the stocks start moving, if you get that opportunity, and it makes mathematical sense, you're not just improving it just to improve it.
呃 好吧 所以 当你第一次进行交易时 这种风险应该是不可接受的 这是箭头中的最坏情况 Uh, okay. So, and when you 1st go into a trade, that risk should already be unacceptable, worst case in arrow.
当你开始的时候 你说的是你增加了曝光率 And as you start, what you're saying is you're adding exposure.
所以现在你增加了风险 So now you're you're increasing the risk.
当你增加风险时 就像马克说的 你是否有未平仓利润 比如你为什么要增加风险 Well, as you increase that risk, as Mark is saying, are you getting you have open profits, like why are you increasing that risk?
如果你的增长没有开放利润 这也没关系 And if you are increasing without open profits, that's okay too.
只要你增加的金额 是你愿意承担的可接受的风险水平 因为当你持有头寸时 所有的风险都是存在的 对吧 As long as that the amount you're increasing, that's an acceptable level of risk that you're willing to take, because it's all risk when you take a position, it's all risk, right?
你还没有任何利润 You don't have any profit yet.
这是所有风险 所以你必须接受这一点 It's all risk. So you've got to be okay with that.
所以没有硬性的 快速的规则 So there is not a hard, fast rule.
这是一个渐进的过程 It's it's all it's an incremental process.
然后你正在改善最坏的情况 或者试图在不阻碍交易的情况下缩小最坏的情况 And then you're improving that worst case now, or trying to improve that worst case narrow without choking the trade off.
这是关键 这是整件事的诀窍 就是找出有数学意义的止损点 给股票足够的波动空间 但不要让它停止 在你被止损太多次的地方止损 你就不能获得净利润了 That's the key, that's the trick of this whole thing, is to figure out the stop that makes mathematical sense, give the stock enough room to fluctuate, but not choke it off, and stop you out where you get stopped out too many times, and you can't make a net profit.
和经营其他生意没什么区别 No different than running any other business.
是一样的 你知道 风险回报 It's the same exact thing. You know, risk reward.
我得走了 伙计们 大家周末愉快 I got to run guys. I have Everybody have a great weekend.
今天是我孩子的生日 所以我可以把我的派对 It's a birthday for my kids, so I can put my party.
是的 这里几点了 Yeah. What time is it here?
因为我知道了 我只剩下一点了现在是45分钟了 Cause I got it. I only have, I only have a little bit left to it's 45 min now.
对吧 是的 好吧 我要 我要再回答几个问题 然后我自己走 Right? Yep. Okay, I'm going to, I'm going to answer a few more questions, and then I'm going to go myself.
马克 谢谢你 周末愉快 Mark, thank you. Have a good weekend.
我晚点再打给你 好的 让我看看 MR 你有没有加入Ellenth 然后就在昨天你收到MarkRitchie问EllenT-H的问题的时候 你知道 我想亲自问他这个问题 I'll talk to you later. All right, so let me get let's see, for MR, did you add to Ellen th And then right at the time where you get a question from Mark Ritchie to Ellen T-H yesterday today, you know, I wanted to ask him that myself.
我甚至不知道 嗯 所以我们现在不会得到答案 I don't even know, um, so we're not going to get that answer right now.
不幸的是 还有几个问题 Unfortunately. Just a couple more questions here.
我来回答 然后我就跳下去 I'm going to answer. Then I got to jump.
你认为曝光多少才算好 How much exposure do you consider is good?
现在 粮秆模型 必要和容易的美元环境 Now, grain stem models, necessary and easy dollar environment?
听着 没有 再说一遍 没有什么神奇的答案 你知道 你去做这件事 你暴露了这么多 暴露是非常私人的 Look, there is no, again, there isn't a magic answer, isn't a, you know, you go on this, and you put this much exposure, exposure is really personal.
但我想说的是 你应该不管你的最大敞口是多少 不管那是什么 你知道 进入市场 进入试点模式 25%通常是我第一次下水 如果你愿意的话 But what I would say is that you should whatever your maximum exposure would be, whatever that would be, um, you know, getting into the market, into a pilot mode, 25% is generally sort of my 1st toes in the water, if you will.
如果一切顺利的话 我会试着很快地把比例提高到50% If things work, I try to move to 50 per cent pretty quickly from there.
这是一种平衡 Now it's really sort of a balancing act.
我想看看它们是如何工作的 我可能会把它上移一点 也可能会下移一点 I want to like see how things are working in em I might move it up a little, I might move it down a little.
但一旦事情开始运转得非常好 我就会很快上升 然后从那里开始 我就会很快下降 But once things start working really well, I move up very fast, and then from there, I move down really fast.
如果突然间它不起作用 If all of a sudden it doesn't work.
如果奥维森之日 情况发生了变化 我可以开始停下来 我很快就会回到下面 If Ovison day, oh, things are turned and I can start getting stop, uh, I'll move very fast back down.
所以 当有很多敞口的时候 我就会有更多的风险和不确定性 就像你知道的 迅速采取行动来减少风险 特别是当你做保证金交易的时候 So again, when there's a lot of exposure on, I'm gonna be much more risk and verse, as far as, you know, making quick moves to cut it out, especially if you go on margin.
现在 我真的很快 就像 我让事情开始对我不利 Now, I'm really fast, like, I gotta things start moving against me.
我得马上离开那里 拿到保证金 I gotta get out of there immediately and get off margin.
所以我想说 这是一个渐进的过程 So it's an incremental process, I would say, though.
现在你应该努力让自己至少投资50% Now you should probably be trying to get yourself at least to 50% invested.
考虑到我们仍处于下行趋势 从长期来看 我认为我们仍必须保持下行趋势 Considering that we're still in a down trend, long term, where the down trend, I think we're still, we have to stay.
我们的市场仍然是空的 We're still in a bare market.
所以在这种环境下 你不会想要发疯 把球的盖子扯下来 So this is not an environment where you want to go crazy and try to rip the cover off the ball.
这就是你要试着筹钱的地方 希望是 锁定一些有用的仓位 也许你可以在部分仓位中长期持有 在你卖出你的你的 拿回一些利润之后 然后从那里开始 我们再从那里入手看看我们是否能得到一个有效的底部 This is where you want to try to chip up, hopefully, latch onto a few positions that work, and maybe you can hold them longer term in partial positions, after you sell out your your, uh, take some of your profits, and then from there, we work from there and see if we get an effective bottom put in.
好了 最后 让我们看看 All right, last, let's see,
也许沃尔玛的问题 如果你想让你的生意顺风顺水 maybe Walmart question. If you want the wind in your sales,
呃 顺应潮流 你怎么能不看指数就知道市场走向呢 uh, go with the trend. How do you not look at the indexes and know where the market is trending?
因为你的销售风向 以及一直呈上升趋势与平均水平无关 Because the wind in your sales, and having been an up trend is has nothing to do with the averages.
当你在一个空旷的市场上买东西的时候 The averages when you're buying off of a bare market.
如果你等到市场出现上升趋势 大多数情况下 你会抛售股票 If you wait until the market to be an up trend, most of the time, you would MS.
所有好的股票 但是你看 这就是你 你所说的违背了你能看到真正强劲上涨趋势的整个想法 all the good stocks that But see, that's the whole you're you're, what you're saying is defying the whole idea of being able to see where the really strong up trends are.
你看 那些最好的市场是在一个裸市 因为市场不是一个下降的趋势 You see, those the best when the markets in a bare market, because the market isn't a down trend.
现在这种上升趋势就像商店拇指一样突出 And now the up trend stick out like a store thumb.
所以你不需要弄清楚市场的趋势是什么 So you're not trying to figure out when the market is trending.
这就是 这就是你的问题所在 That's where. That's where your question.
你的想法是有缺陷的 我们如何知道市场的趋势 Your thinking is flawed. How do we know where the market is trending?
我们并不是想弄清楚市场的趋势 We're not trying to figure out where the market is trending.
我根本不关心市场走向 I could care less where the market is trending.
我关心的是 根据我的标准 股票的走势以及它们对我的买入点和买入点的反应 I care where the stocks that are setting up, according to my criteria, are trending and how they're responding to my my buys and my buy points.
看 这就是你该离开市场的地方 See, that's where you gotta get off the market.
忘掉市场吧 看看这些股票 我有消息告诉你 Forget about the market. Look at the stocks, and I got news for you.
如果很多股票都在一个基础上下跌 市场通常也会跟着下跌 而你实际上是对市场的预测 If a lot of stocks are breaking on a bases, the market will usually follow that, and you will actually be predictive of the market.
培训 你会让你的朋友们惊叹于你通过关注主要股票来预测市场走向的能力 因为主要股票会领涨 Training. You'll be amazing your friends with your with your ability to predict where the market's going by focusing on the leading stocks, because leading stocks lead.
好的 听着 我将尽我所能去复习一些基本原理 甚至展示一些描述 更细的层次 阅读一些图表 你知道 在这个周末的视频中 指示器 OK, listen, I'm going to try to do as much as I can to go over some rationale and even show some some depiction of the of the granular, more granular level of reading some of the charts with the monolert uh uh, you know, indicators in this weekend's weekend video.
我也试着做两个视频 So I try to do two videos too.
我可能会做两个视频 因为我认为我们会有很多股票来讨论市场 Most likely I'll do two videos, because I think we're going to have a lot of stocks in something to talk about the market.
呃 可能不会在一个视频里讲 但会有两个视频 希望在股票视频里 我会做更详细的阅读 所以我会更深入地讲一些东西 试着给你们 你知道 我在这里尽可能地思考 并给你们一些 呃 你知道 一些教程 在技术分析方面 嗯 这是开始谈论这些事情的好时机 Uh, probably won't do them in one video, but have two videos, and hopefully in the stock videos, where I'll do more of a granular read, so I'll get it to some of the stuff more in depth, try to give you, you know, my thinking here as best I can, and and give you some, uh, you know, some tutorial, sort of in the technical analysis also, uh, this is a good time to start talking about these things.
我更喜欢参与其中 因为有很多例子 有很多现实生活中的例子我们实时交易 And where I like to engage more, because there's examples, there's lots of real life examples that we're trading in real time.
你可以看到所有这些 并立即联系起来 并得到反馈 And you get to see all this and related immediately, and get the feedback.
同时你也得到了自己的反馈 And also you have your own feedback that you've just gotten.
你看到了你犯的错误 You see the mistakes you've made.
这真是一个伟大的时刻 This is really a great time.
这是你学到最多的地方 This is where you learn the most.
所以 这个周末看视频 然后我们周一见 我们周一会回来进行问答 So, uh, watch the video this weekend, and then I'll see you guys on Monday, and we'll be back in for q and A on Monday again.
所以如果你今天的问题没有得到回答 试着马上进来让他在房间一打开的时候马上进来 So if you didn't get your questions answered today, try to come in right away and put him in right away as soon as the room opens.
好了 回头再聊 All right, talk to you guys later.
再见 再见 周末愉快 歌手 Bye, bye. Have a good weekend, singer.
我认为情况并非如此 I don't think that's the case.