嗨，早上好，欢迎来到minervani hey good morning and welcome to the minervani
专用接入培训室 private access training room
鲍勃·韦斯曼，能不能快点 bob weissman if we can do a quick
你手上的葡萄干，让我知道你在听我说话 raisin of your hands to let me know that you're hearing me
一切都很清楚 all loud and clear
希望大家周末愉快 hope everybody had a good weekend
看起来像 looks like
有很多人举手了 getting a lot of hands raised here
让我们也欢迎马克·里奇来到教室好成绩 let's also welcome mark richie into the room good mark
早上好，马克，鲍勃，早上好，马克 good morning mark morning bob morning mark
好的，请举手 alright if you could just raise your hand
让我们知道你在他体内，好的 letting us know you're here in him oh okay
最后 as well and finally
我们开始吧，交给马克·明特韦尼 let's get things started and hand it off to mark minterveni
今天的课程标志是早上好 it gets today going with today's session mark good morning
大家早上好 good morning good morning everyone
很快，我没有回答 real quick i did not address
我们的一些销售业绩 some of the sales that we made
上周，我本想在这周末的视频里说的 last week and i meant to in this weekend's video
让我快速地讲一下 so let me just quickly just talk about
我们卖出了一些股票特别是石油股票 a few of the stocks that we sold particularly the the oil stocks
这是有 which are having
显然今天早上遇到了一些困难 obviously some difficulty this morning
所以我们要看看ovv so we're taking a look at ovv
我在寻找“可能” i was looking for maybe
如果你还记得的话，需要一些巩固 some a little bit of consolidation if you remember
我上周画的 i drew this in last week
展示我的想法，也许我们可以 showing how i thought maybe we can set up a
也许是低级的作弊 maybe a low cheat or a cheat
并在最近的突破上形成某种类型的帽型 and form some type of cap pattern on top of this recent breakout
我们只需要从右边开始 and we just ran right up the right side here
这很好，我是说如果你持有股票的话 which is great i mean if you own the stock
你想让它更高 you want it to go higher
我只是停止了它，并确定了一个额外的30% i just back stopped it and nailed down a plus thirty percent
利润是一种标准 profit so that's you know just sort of sort of standard
我不关心它是否比这里高很多 i don't really care if it goes much higher from here
如果你在那个位置上肯定会这么做 if you will certainly when you're in that position
你可以骑着它走更大的一步，但是 you can ride it for a much bigger move but
在短期内，三分之一的收益是相当不错的 in a short period of time a third percent gains are pretty nice
撕得很好 pretty nice rip there
trgps另一个 trgps another one
相似度上升了近30% similar was up close to thirty percent
从低点一路狂奔，然后就有了那个 just ran straight up off the lows there and then had that
一个小小的延长日 one little extension day
所以它只是拿走了一些名字的利润 so it's just taken some profits in some of those names
我们还没有被排除出太多的名字 we haven't been stopped out of too many names
考虑到有 considering there's
这么多空缺职位，我今天早上发布了 so many open positions and as i post it this morning
只有一些名字，比如x和oxy only a couple names like any x and oxy of course
哪些是在石油区，今天早上石油下降了 which are in the oil area and oils down this morning
只是几个名字在演戏 just a few names are acting
不正常的还是给我们看的 abnormal or showing us some
关注的原因 reason for concern
不是疯狂的违规，只是 not not crazy violations here but just
不是最好的动作和狐狸 not the best action and fox
你知道我想再次看到它收紧 you know again i would like to see it tighten up
这就是原因之一 and this is one of the reasons
为什么我要用我的想象力 why i try to use my imagination and
我把这个画进去 i draw this in
这样你就能清楚地看到 so then you can clearly see
当它现在朝着相反的方向 when it's going in the opposite direction now
正如我所指出的，这种低价的底线 you know an undercut of this low as i pointed out
从这个低点下来 coming off of this low
在左边有补给 sheet and having the supply on the left side
这是 this is
相对正常的 still relatively normal
我是说，我宁愿看到它收紧，然后 i mean i would rather see it tighten up and then
从那里逃出来绝对是 break out from there that would have definitely been
一个更好的行动 a better action
但这当然可以 but this could certainly
靠近点，站紧点 move around here a bit and stay tight
仍然收紧 and still tighten up
然后从那里逃出来 and then break out from there
所以我觉得你不用太担心 so i don't think you should be getting too concerned
和狐狸，但是这很可能 with fox but again this is probably
还需要一点时间来设定最佳状态 still needs a little more time to set up that optimal
通过点 by point
我可能会在那个时候买更多 which i probably would be you know buying more at that point
总之就是这样就是这样 so anyway that's about that's about it with that
让我们进入提问环节 let's get to some questions
好吧 all right
让我们看看 uh let's see here
迈克尔和去年一样 michael is matching how last year
主要是一个硬硬币环境 being primarily a hard penny environment
他主要做短线交易 he did mostly short term trading
你对如何换档和保养有什么建议吗 do you have any advice on how to switch gears and condition
现在要有显示来保持风险 now to have display to leave the risk on
我的意思是，第一件事是它是否有效 yeah well i mean the first thing is is is it working
你是在收回这些短期利润吗 are you taking those short term profits
我想马库斯对你也有好处 and then i guess marcus would be good for you to also
也许答案 maybe answer
即使你知道你要做很多短线交易 even though you know you to do a lot of short term trading
但换挡当然很重要 but changing gears is certainly an important
你知道的 you know part of
交易和你不想要它的关键是，我总是说 trading and you don't want it the key is is that i always say
你不想你的观察太灵活 you don't you want to be flexible with your observations
但永远不要改变你的哲学 but never flexible with your philosophy
所以你懂的 so it's okay to you know
在规则周围伸展，在你的内心 stretch around the rules and and within your within
你的策略，但不是你开始改变策略 your strategy but not where you start changing the strategy so
如果你知道你在获利回吐 if you know you're taking profits
更快，因为你没有得到很多好处 at quicker because you're not getting much gain well
那你就知道如果你开始拿那些快速获利，而现在 then you know if you start taking those quick profits and now
股价上涨，而你 the stocks from moving higher and you're
坐在那里踢自己，我希望我拿着它 sitting there kicking yourself going boy i wish i held that
你知道这可能表明你的性格发生了变化 you know that shows maybe a character change
马克，我不知道 mark i don't know
你看到你知道的角色变化了吗 have you seen you know much of a character change here
我是说，你知道的 i mean i you know
我不打算留下这个问题但是我会让你们回答，但是 i'm not gonna leave the question but i'll let you answer it but
然后我会很好地给出我的意见 and then i'll give my opinion well
我想说有可能，但我 you know i would say potentially but i'm
我仍然 i'm still
这种转变很有趣 the changing gears is kind of interesting
我认为它更多的是看着骑上和离开油门 i think of it more of just look riding on and off the gas pedal
你知道所以 you know so
在哪里 where is
我的脚相对于地板的加速度 my foot relative to the floor in terms of the accelerator
我想说现在我仍然 and i would say right now i'm still
你知道，如果有必要，随时准备刹车 you know getting ready to ride the brake if necessary quickly
我想说的是我们已经积累了 but well here's what i would say we've had accumulation
我们有了一些改变 we've had some change
的性格 in character
有一些东西在起作用这是我们见过的最好的 there are some things working this is the best we've seen
个月和 in months and
我们从你知道的，这一节的休息中走出来 we're coming off of you know this break in the nastech
这是一个病态的熊市，所以超过20% this is a sickable bear market more than twenty percent so
你知道我有没有 you know if i've
你知道我已经抓住了几个位置 you know i've got a few positions i've grabbed
我不会把整个头寸都踢出去，比如说2比1 i'm not just gonna kick out the entire position say at 2 to one
在我看来，冒这个险是不合理的 that it doesn't justify taking the risk in my opinion
至少在这样一个可能的转弯时 at least at a possible turn like this
这就是我的想法 so that's kind of how i'm thinking about it
但你说的也一样 but exactly what you said though too
我在评估行动 i'm gauging the action
你知道的，每天都是循序渐进的，一天一次 you know as it's every day incrementally one day at a time
一次只买一只股票 one stock at a time
一次一个 one set up at a time yeah
我认为有两件事 i think two things one
我想如果我们看看空缺的职位 i think if we look at the open positions
你可以看到我们仍然 you can see that we still
你知道 you know
没有什么进步，除了一些领域，我是说，是的 don't have a lot of progress except in a few areas i mean yeah
就像马克说的，现在比以前更好用了 it's definitely working better than ever as mark just said
我不该说永远，但你知道 i shouldn't say ever but you know better than
很长一段时间 in quite a while
所以我们确实有一些股票表现很好 so we do have a few stocks that are acting really good
确实有一些 and there's been a few
利润很可观，就像在石油领域一样 profits to take that we're decent like in the oil area however
我们也有很多这样的名字 we also have a lot of names that are
仍然是个位数，中低个位数 still single digit mid or low single digit
我们甚至没有看到两位数的增长 gains that we haven't even seen double digit gains and a couple
这部分资金仍处于水深火热之中 that are still underwater a bit
所以我认为你知道我们这里有一个交易反弹 so i think you know we've got a trading rally here
它是否变成 whether it turns into a
如果是v型底的话，这是一个完整的底 full blown bottom here if it's a v shape bottom
我们直接从低点出发 we run straight off the lows
我想我们已经见过很多v底了，很多人可能也见过 i think we've seen a lot of v bottoms and a lot of people might
除了这些，也许这次我们不会得到这些 expect those and maybe this time we're not gonna get that
就像我这个周末提到的那样 i did speak to as i alluded to this weekend
我和斯坦·韦恩斯坦谈过了 i did speak to stan weinstein
在周末 over the weekend
我经常和他说话 and i speak to him quite often
我们总是谈论市场，这是他最喜欢的话题 and we always talk about the market that's his favorite subject
他认为我们仍处于熊市 and he thinks we're still in a bear market and
你知道这是一次交易反弹 that you know this is a trading rally
我们仍然不能得出结论，我们已经做出了底部 and we still can't really conclude that the bottoms we've made
和一次又一次 and and again
我之前说过，这两者是有区别的 i pointed out before that there's a difference between
低的被制造 a low being made
一个底部正在形成，股票正在大幅上涨 a bottom being made and stocks moving up in earnest
所以你可以在市场上赚个低 so you can make a low in the market
市场和指数都不会低于这个水平 and the market and the indexes don't go below that low
但要建好底部需要很长时间 but then it takes a long time to actually build a bottom
在此期间，你可能会看到许多股票上涨 during that time you could have lots of stocks taking off
或者你可能没有股票上涨 or you could have no stocks taking off
大概有三种 so it's sort of three
移动的部分，他们不一定知道所有的 moving parts and they don't know all necessarily
同时移动 move at the same time
即使他们之间有某种联系 even though they're sort of you know connected
不一定完全像你的身体 not necessarily completely like your bodies
连接到你的胳膊和腿 connect to your arms and your legs
但你的胳膊和腿可以 but your arms and your legs could be doing
和你脑袋里的躯干不同的东西 something different than your torso in your head
所以这样想 so think of it that way
我先说清楚，我不会带一堆冒险的家伙，所以 just to be clear too i'm not carrying a ton of risk guys so
这并不是在暗示你会变得很有攻击性 that was not signaling the all you know get really aggressive
然而,对吧 yet right
嘿 hey
埃里克在问还是 eric is asking or
说你提到 saying you mentioned
每周学习课程的CLS，你会等待它 cls of the weekly study session that you'll wait for it
我也注意到你有时会建议 i've also noticed sometimes you suggest
从一天的低点到高点的回调 by from a pullback off the high from the day's low
有时从顶端开始支点 sometimes from the top of the pivot
什么因素会影响这个决定 what factors would affect this decision
是CLS还是CSL was that cls or csl
cls cls cls cls
这是马克的一个小问题 this is more trivia question for mark
你还记得上次读的书吗 was revisiting your book again do you still remember your last
就这一次 just this one time time
它是什么，结果有多糟糕 what was it and how bad did it turn out
我不记得了 i can't remember
因为我已经很久没有过这样的时刻了 because i haven't had a just this one time moment in a long
天长地久 long long time
马克，你可能永远不会有正义的时刻 mark you probably never have a justice one time moment
你知道的，还有我们所指的 you know and that and what we're referring to
当你你知道 is when you you know
你打破了自己的规矩，就像你知道的那种重大突破 you break your rule like a major break like you know
你是你 you're you're down
你知道你是后卫，然后你走 you know you're full back stop and then you go
你知道，就这一次，我要拿着它，给它更多的空间 you know just this one time i'm gonna hold it give it more room
然后你可能会损失惨重 and then maybe you take a big loss
所以我不会那么做，你知道我 so i just don't do that you know i
我只是我不 i just i don't
我不记得了 i can't remember
就这一次，我一个都记不起来了 just this one time moment i can't remember any of them really
因为它们太远了 because they're so far
你知道，很久以前，很久以前 far you know so long ago and so far back
我忘了CLS的问题是什么了 and and so i forget what was the question though on cls
我注意到你有时会这样建议 i've noticed sometimes you suggest
从低点到高点的回调 bind from a pullback off the high from the low day
有时从顶端开始支点 sometimes from the top of the pivot
什么因素会影响这个决定，请讲 what factors would affect this decision yeah
这是你知道的设置，你知道什么是有效的 it's really the setup you know and what's working you know
是什么主题 what's thematically
工作 working
我是说，如果我们得到一堆正在设置的名字 i mean if we're getting a bunch of names that are setting up
我看到这个名字可能来自于回购交易 and i see the name setting up maybe off of pullback buys
也许他们没有设置 and maybe they're not setting
那些把手和支点我就开始 those handles or those pivots i'll start
交易那些我试图交易的第一个设置 trading those i'm trying to trade the first setup
你知道，马克，也许你可以 you know mark you maybe you can
对这个怎么说 speak to this to how
你知道我们从你身上只看到了好处 you know we're looking from you only have the benefit like
你无法在加载作弊之前看到作弊 you can't see the cheat before the load cheat
在作弊之前你看不到手柄 you can't see the handle before the cheat
或者装弹作弊，然后拉回 or the load cheat and the pullback by
在加载中，欺骗出现在欺骗之前 within the load cheat comes before the cheat
好的，这是一个月的权利 all right that's a monthful right
所以你会看到杆子就在这里 so you're going to see the pole back by like right here
你会看到让我给你演示一下 you're going to see let me just show you
你首先会看到这个 you're going to see this first
你知道你会看到这根杆子重新成型 you know you're gonna see this pole back forming
这个把手和吊杆，你就能把杆子拿回来 this handle and boom you get the pole back by
现在你得决定你要不要玩这个 now you've got to decide if you want to play that or not
通常现在我在玩这些，可能只是小程度的 and usually now i'm playing those maybe to a small degree
可能会非常 it might be very
非常小，我只是不愿意变得很重 very small and i'm just not willing to get very heavily
你知道参与了 you know involved yet
但是现在你是否一直等，一直等 but now whether you wait and you wait for now okay
现在我们又多了一天时间 now we got another day here
现在情况有所改善 this actually improved now
如果它在这上面移动，我会更喜欢它 i would like this even more if it moved above this
一千二百三十七年 twelve thirty seven
它收紧了一天，会更好 it tightens up another day that would improve even more
但也许那 but maybe then
它只是聚集起来 it just rallies up
抱歉，我的绘图工具 oh sorry about that my drawing tool
也许是这里又回到了以前的高潮 maybe just rally's up to these old highs here
然后稍微停顿一下 and pauses out a little bit more right
现在，它实际上改进得更多了 and now it's actually improved even more
现在你正从一个完美的VCP中走出来 and now you're coming out of a perfect vcp
但这并不意味着事情就得这样发展下去 but that doesn't mean that it has to play out that way it might
从这根杆子上下来 come right off of this pole back by
然后直接往上射 and shoot straight up
所以你总是按顺序看到这些 so you're always presented with these in order
这就是为什么我有这些不同的元素 and that's why i have these various entries because
基地正在建设中，我当然想进去 as the base is being built i'm trying to get in of course
尽可能的最低价格 the lowest possible lowest price possible
但它必须是一个设置，一个圣经设置 but it has to be a setup that is a you know a bible setup
这是有道理的 that is make sense
风险回报明智 risk reward wise
有时我进去后会在这里买一点 sometimes i get in and i'll buy a little bit here
但不管用，它阻止了我 and it doesn't work it stops me out
或者我在小的，我建立它 or i'm in small and i build into it
有时候你知道市场真的很艰难 sometimes you know the market's really tough you know
这真的很艰难，事情并没有那么顺利 it's really tough and things aren't just not working
因此，我放弃这些回调买盘，等待更多 so i pass on these pullback buys and i wait for more
更精确、更干脆的发展 development that is more precise and more crisp
你呢，马克 how about you well mark
如何按时间顺序决定 how do you chronologically decide
当你得到这些时，第一个球穿过本垒板 when you get these first first pitch comes across the plate
看一看还是好好挥杆 whether to take a look or take a swing right well
最大的因素是如何使用棒球类比 the biggest factor is to use the baseball analogy how well
我看到球了吗 have i been seeing the ball
你知道如果我没有很好地观察球 you know if i haven't been seen the ball very well
,我更 that i'm more
可能投出第一球 likely to take the first pitch
然后下一个球我挥出我更 and then the next pitch i swing at i'm more
可能会采取保守的立场 likely to take a conservative swing
我们就用这个例子吧 so let's just use this example if things were i mean
我可能会 i would probably
在撤退的时候，我从来没有打满位置 never put on my full position through the pullback by
至少在这个特定的设置下 in this particular setup anyway
因为你仍然 because you're still
只是我觉得没必要 it just it doesn't seem necessary to me
因为这个点的最优值就是你刚才画的 because the optimal in the spot is what you just drew in
我想说的是有一件事 i was gonna say you know if there's one thing
每个人都应该时刻注意 and everybody should you know always pay attention to
不好意思，你们在视频里画画的时候 excuse me on your videos and when you're drawing things in it's
为了消除猜测工作 to eliminate the guess work
因为你知道你需要看到什么 because you know what you need to see
所以当你看不到的时候 so when you don't see it
你什么都不做 you don't do anything
很多人都是新手不好意思，同学们 and a lot of guys that are new at this guys and gals excuse me
感觉都是猜测，我不知道该不该在这里买 it just feels like all guesswork i don't know should i buy here
我应该停在那里吗? should i bay there
马克给了你 well mark's giving you
你知道可以有多种情况 you know multiple scenarios you can
开始你的位置，通过拉回 start your position through the pullback by
你可以画两个或者 and you can probably draw in two or
三种不同的情况下，也许它会马上起飞 three different scenarios maybe it just takes right off
然后戴上帽子 and then puts in a cap
或者回调 or puts in a pullback
到突破时，你可以加仓 by to the breakout where you can add to your position
所以你不必这么做 so you don't have to
你不需要把所有的东西都放在一个地方 you don't have to put it all on in one spot
它允许你测试东西，看看它是如何工作的 and it allows you to test things and see how things are working
循序渐进 and incrementally you know
构建 build
进入你的曝光率，并利用对你有利的渐进曝光率 into your exposure and use progressive exposure in your favor
这就是这些不同轴心的美妙之处 that's the beauty of these sort of different pivots
但所有 but all
在这个背景下，有点像基地或者回到基地 in the context sort of of the base or pulling back to the base
好的标志 okay mark
当你们说到我们的时候，要同时问两个问题 a question for both marks when you guys talk about we
对不起，我刚才在说话 i'm sorry i was talking
我的麦克风静音了，尼克，你在吗 while my mike was muted nick are you there
是的，对不起，对不起，大约十点 yeah i'm sorry sorry about ten
不管怎样，让我再说一件事 so anyway let me just say one more thing
实际上有两件事 so two things actually
一是你必须像这样思考和记忆 one is that you have to think remember like
交易是一种艺术，就像 trading is a lot of it is art and it's like
玩扑克我总是用很多扑克类比 playing poker i use i always use a lot of poker analogies
但是当你在玩扑克的时候 but when you're playing poker
这是数学，我的意思是，如果你 there's the math i mean you know if you
如果你是个扑克高手 if you're a good poker player
你们知道数学 you know the math
还有一种计算方法，就是在罐子里放些什么 and there's the math of what's in the pot versus
你要赌什么，这样你就能知道你下的是多少 what you're gonna bet so you can know if you're laying odds
计算赔率和概率 getting odds and what probabilities that you're playing
鉴于这些可能性和你暗示的可能性，但现在 with those odds and your imply odds but now
你还必须决定什么时候采取行动 there's you'll have to also decide when to make moves
什么时候虚张声势 when to bluff
什么时候开始真正的攻击 when to get real aggressive
也许什么时候你知道 maybe when to you know
更保守一点 play it more conservative
这和交易是一样的 that's sort of the same thing with trading where
你知道你会知道他们的安排 you know you're gonna know the setups
你会看到，你知道，你知道 and you're gonna see you know you know
这是一个可行的设置从这一点开始这是主元 this is a setup that is viable from this point here's the pivot
但就像我说过很多次的 but like i said many times i
你知道的越多越好 think with differentiates the you know the the the better
操作员是你们知道的 operators is you know
明知去踩油门明知去骑刹车 knowing went to step on the gas knowing went to ride the break
知道会变得很有攻击性 knowing went to get really aggressive
做一头猪和做一只鸡 and be a pig versus being a chicken you know
有时你会想去 there's times where you want to be
你想成为一只小鸡 you want to be a chicken
有时候你想被吓一跳，有时候你想变成一头猪 you want to be scared there's other times you want to be a pig
在那里 and be in there
然后买，买，买，装上 and be and and and buy and buy and buy and load up
我想你知道 and i think you know
这是很重要的一部分但这只是另一件事 that's that's a big part of it but just another thing too just
就技术而言 as far as technique is concerned
有时候我会做些什么 there's sometimes what i'll do
是因为有时候你会得到一个 is because what happens sometimes you'll get with a
从这些支点开始跑 run up from these pivots
右侧会被压缩 and they'll get that little compressed right side
我将会带 i'll actually take
因为我的股价很低 because i'm trading so low to
引用和引用的危险点是 quote and quote the danger point being
也许是这里的低点 maybe this low here
也许这个低点只差一两个百分点 maybe this low is only a percent or two away
而我正在利用这一机会进行交易 and i'm trading through that pull back by
我将持有一个巨大的头寸 i'll actually take a huge position
但我想把它的一部分进行日交易，所以如果它 but i'm looking to day trade out of part of it so if it
运行了 runs right up
然后我就在股价达到这个高点时卖出 then i just sell as it comes to this old high
因为那是最容易失速的地方 because that's the spot where it most likely will stall
然后建立一个枢轴 and then build a pivot
我所做的就是把它取下来 and then what i did by doing that is i take that off
我现在开始资助我的冒险 and i financed my risk now now on
我一般的位置，它可以一直回来 my regular size position it can come all the way back
下来，阻止我出去 down and stop me out
我不会赔钱，我甚至可能会赚钱 and i don't lose any money i might even make money
因为我的仓位太大了 because i've taken such a large position
兑的 versus the the
常规位置大小 the regular position size
我赚了那笔钱，赚的比我赚的还多 i've taken that profit and it made more than cushions me
你知道的 so that's that's you know
马克说的是你知道的事实 mark was speaking to the fact of you know
没有充分发挥你的优势 not taking your full position there
如果我正在建立一个职位，我有时也会放松 i sometimes i also will ease in if i'm building a position
但我甚至可能持有很大的立场，但是 but i might even take a big position but
不要坚持使用它 not stick with it and use it as well
这就是我能做到两全其美的地方 that's where i get that sort of best of both worlds
或者做短期交易 or i get the short term trading
随着摇摆和长期持有 with the swing and the longer term hold
好吧 okay
所以当你们谈论到这两个标记的时候 so now the question for both marks when you guys talk about
一波又一波的安排 a wave of setups
你能就长度给出一些颜色吗 can you give some color as to the length of how
海浪会持续很长时间 long these waves can last
几个星期的一天 a day a few weeks
是的，你知道 yeah again you know
寻找那些 looking for those
你知道答案是非黑即白的 you know it's black and white answers
这很难，但我肯定可以给你 it's tough but i can give you certainly
做了将近四十年之后的一般准则 general guidelines after doing this for almost forty years
你知道，通常你会看到 you know usually you'll see
少数几只股票原本可能是五到十个名字 a handful of stocks it might be originally five or ten names
一些股票开始上涨 some stocks start breaking out
几天之后，通常是在几天之内 over a number of days and then usually within
一段相对较短的时间 a relatively short period of time you know
几天或几周 a number of days or weeks
你会得到更多的股票 you're going to get more stock setting up
因为你可以把它想象成股票爆发 because think of it this way as a stock breaks out
还有，还有，还有 and and and it's
举个例子，比如 just bring up you know an example something like
现在什么在工作 what's working right now
类似于JNPR something like a jnpr
你知道这只股票是在这个骗局中爆发的 you know this stock breaks out here from this cheat
在这里搭个把手，在那里搭个把手 builds a little handle here breaks out there
所以现在一两个星期过去了，你开始能够 so now a week or two goes by and you start to be able to
判断这是否给您确认或违反 gauge whether this is given you confirmations or violations
在这段时间里，你会希望看到更多的设置 during that time that's where you want to see more set up
所以我想说一般来说 so i would say generally
你知道，这是一对夫妇在几周内，你 you know it's a couple within a couple weeks you're
你看到的是那个时间段 you're looking in that time frame
当然你知道 certainly within you know
不会超过三四周的时间，你觉得呢 no more than in probably three or four weeks what do you think
标记到 mark as far as
你知道时间范围，也知道我们在找什么 you know the time frame and what we're looking
可能是很多的设置 for and maybe a number of setups
是的，我想我没有那么想量化，因为 yeah i don't think about it that quantitatively i guess because
你知道有不同的时期 there's been different periods that you know
这个波的类比很好 that's it's the wave analogy is good though
我想是因为我不是一个冲浪者，但是 i think because i'm not a surfer but
你知道的，我知道那些人 you know i know for people that
任何像这样的运动都需要一些感觉 any type of sport like that that requires some feel
你知道，他们说你能抓住一个完美的波浪 and you know they say that you catch a perfect wave you know
这就像一个顿悟的时刻 and it's like an aha moment you know
你会觉得你已经把它搞定了 and you feel like you kind of got it down
我记得在第一个交易大师课程之后 and i remember after the first master trader program
市场反弹了，我们或许可以 the market rallied and we could probably
拿张图表来看看 bring up a chart and look at it
然后标记了一个星期的时间 and then it marked time for a week
到处都是股票 and there were just stocks everywhere
买不到的股票通常是我的 and more stocks than you could buy that's usually my
测量，比如说你穿过屏幕，然后标记 measure let's say you run through your screens and mark said
有五个，然后 there's five and then
也许再过两天就会有20个 maybe in two more days it's like there's twenty well
你不会买二十个名字的 you're not gonna buy twenty names
你坐在那里 and you're sitting there going
我应该买哪一种，这是最好的情况 which one should i buy that's the best scenario
想想看，这意味着其他人都不知道 because think about it that means everybody else doesn't know
只是有很多商品 there's just there's a lot of merchandise
是的，在货架上，那是，那是你知道的，那是肥肉 yeah on the shelves that's that that's that fat pitch you know
就像有人给你扔沙滩球一样 it's like somebody's throwing you a beach ball
这就是我想要的一击致命 and that's what i want to take an aggressive swing
所以我不认为这是 so i don't think of it in terms of
我得看看 i would have to look
再过几个星期也许会是一个低点 in terms of how many weeks off of maybe a low
因为市场曾经有过低谷 because there have been times where market makes a low
看起来我们有一波的安排 and it seems like we get a wave of setups
可能是一两个月后吧 could be a month or two later
你知道，是的，我不会，我不会 you know yes i wouldn't i wouldn't put a
我会避免太科学，只是做屏幕 i would avoid being too scientific and just do the screens
然后问问你们自己 and then ask yourselves you know
有多少名字看起来不错 how many names are looking good
或者它们在正确的方向上运动 or are they moving in the right direction yeah
原因也是 and the reason also
你知道你必须自己做这件事吗 is you know you really have to do this within your own
在你自己的舒适区你自己的风险承受能力 the confines of your own comfort zone your own risk tolerance
你要从哪里获得这种自信呢 so where are you going to get that confidence or
开始补枝 to start bratching up
你知道 and you know
你必须在自己的舒适区建立自己的基础 you really have to build on your in your own comfort zone
你知道 you know
对你以前用的波的类比 and to you used to use the wave analogy
非常适合海浪 perfect for wave here
波舞者对吧 wave dancer right
所以双关语的一部分我们让这个波移动 so part of the pun we've got this wave moving
你们中的一些人可能会说，你知道，你知道 um now some of you might say you know you know
你买的是低价股票 you're buying this you know low price stock you know
我很少这么做，但我已经买了一些 i very seldom do but i've i've bought a couple
你知道，就在上周左右 you know this last week or so um
这是我给自己买的 i bought this for myself
我买了其他一些低价的 i bought some of the other low price ones
这是我默认设置的地方 uh this and again this is where i default to this setup
你知道我真的很喜欢这个，如果如果我要买 you know i really default to this up and if if i'm gonna buy
降低价格，并说如果你愿意，可以扩展规则 lower price name and say stretch the rules if you will
它必须是它必须是完美的，这真的是完美的 it has to be it has to be perfect and this is really perfect
我是说这个VCP非常完美 i mean this vcp is absolutely perfect
从右边开始 came up this right side
经过了一点努力，你又得到了一点 went through a little bit of autility you've got another little
看这里有个迷你VCP see a little mini vcp right here
所以你有 so you've got
你答对了一个问题 you've got one right
你有一个，有两个，现在有三个 you've got one you've got two you've got three now
这是有点，考虑到这一站有点宽 this is a little bit the stop is a bit wide considering
但是对于5美元的股票来说 but for a five dollar stock
这真的不是 it's really not
它从这里出来，完美的卷起来了，当然了 it came out of here perfect the volumes up nice now of course
我们要看看它能不能撑得住等等 we got to see it may see if it can hold and so forth
而且非常完美 but really just perfect also
你可以看到这里的波动性 you see this volatility right here
我们在这里画一条线在这个主轴上 we draw a line across here where this is set up across the pivot
看看下面的噪音有多大 see how all the all the noise is below
只要你从这里出来 once you come out of here
你清除所有 you're clearing everything
你有你所有的供给你几乎没有供给 and you've all your supply you have almost no supply
它只交易到这个水平 it's only traded to this level right here
简单地说 and right here very briefly
这就是为什么你能这么快出来 and that's why you can come out so fast
这就是供需规律 this this is the law of supply and demand you get
擅长这个，你就能赚大钱 good at this and you can make a fortune
这要追溯到利弗莫尔原理 and this goes all the way back to the livermore principles so
你有供应，你有所有的存货 you've got the supply you've got all the stock
来到市场易手 coming to market changing hands
现在它安静下来了 and now as it quiets down
这里收紧，交易高于这个水平 and it tightens up here and you're trading above all that level
现在你只需要清空一点供给 now you only have to clear a little bit of supply
股票已经 and the stock has
形成了一条释放阻力的线，它可以移动得非常快 formed a line of release resistance that it can move very fast
这就是为什么你会看到这只股票非常火爆 and that's why you see the stock very explosive
从这些枢轴点 out of these pivot points
我都不知道这个问题在哪里 i don't even know where that question
从这里开始，但无论如何，这就是我们结束的地方 started from but anyway this is where we ended up
好吧 okay
那个，那个，那个 the uh it was the the uh
我们会得到波，我们得到波 we would get waves we got waves
内森要求 nathan is asking
一个星期前才加入的新成员 being a very new member for just joining a week or so ago
他买了LNTH he bought the lnth
而nex和被阻止了什么 and nex and was stopped out of both what
每只股票的负面品质 negative qualities of each stock
会引导我远离你吗 would guide me to stay away
或者更低的优先类型 or lower prior type each of those setups
谁想从他的错误中吸取教训 who's trying to learn from his mistakes yeah well
你知道这是一个 you know this is one
我觉得我有点迷恋这个 where i think i got a little enamored with the
实力相对高，实力发挥方面也比较好 high relative strength and the power play aspects of it
但坦率地说 but quite frankly
我想我已经指出了这一点 and i and i think i pointed this out
我说你怎么知道这绝对是 i said how you know this is definitely
这里有点伸展，有点短这里有点凸起 stretching a bit here it's a little short was wedging up a bit
它仍然可以很容易地下降 and that it could very easily still come down
因为我们只有在测量这个的时候才会进来 because we only came in if you measure this
就在这里 right here we're off about
大概1112%对 like eleven twelve percent right
非常紧，显示出巨大的力量 so very tight so that's shown tremendous strength
问题是它并没有真正发展起来 the problem is that it didn't really develop
坚持很长时间 and really hold in there very long
它开始把自己塞进去 and it started wedging itself up
所以这可能会引起注意 so that might have got some eyes on
就像我之前提到的那样 it got it out prematurely now and what i mentioned before
这个很容易进入吗 is that this could very easily come in
百分之二十的高 twenty percent off the highs
这是正常的，所以在这里，对吧 which would be normal so that's down around here right
我把它画在这里 so let me just draw that in right about here
现在你明白了吧 so now you see you're getting to where this
还在桌上 still is on the table
我的意思是这可能 i mean this could
这里很容易设置，如果我有一个小作弊区 easily set up here if i get a little cheat area
设置在这里 setting up here
我会把它买回来 i'd be buying it back
或者如果你知道它会增加一些 or if it you know it builds out a bit more
我还想买这只股票，我要留下 i'm still looking to buy this this is a stock that i'm staying
你知道我一直在关注这事 you know it's staying on my radar here
还有一个名字不是最重要的 what was the other name that's not the most
下一个，下一个 nex oh nex yeah
这又是一场权力游戏 so nex again another one power play you know
从这种类型出来 coming out of this type and again
这里还有一个细微差别 here here's another little nuance
我认为意识到这一点很重要 that i think's important to realize here
所以你知道我是怎么卖ovv的 so you see how i'm selling ovv
销售trgp正确 selling trgp right
但其中一些步骤现在就开始了 but some of these steps now
之后的安排是在之后吗 are later setups after
比如ovv上升了30% something like ovv's going up thirty percent
我们正在布置nex we're getting nex setting up
这是这是一种 just now so this is this is sort of a
这是会发生的事情 this is sort of something that happens
在一个团队中，你会得到领导者会起飞 in a group where you'll get the leaders will take off
你可以称之为领导，因为这是一个巨大的进步 and you could call this a leader because this made a huge move
但是你正在玩的设置 but the setup that you're playing
我们在这里玩得太晚了吗 is that we're playing here is late relative to maybe
组里的其他名字也有 some of the other names in the group that have
已经得到自己 already gotten themselves
扩展或做出体面的动作 extended or made decent moves
这就是你知道的 so this is where you know
你必须再次做出选择 again you've got to make that choice
把这个切掉 make that cut off
我们假设你和你一样刚进入这个市场 but let's just say you're just coming into the market like you
你是新来的，所以你是新来的 you're new so you're just coming in
这些就是我们展示给你们的设置 so these are the setups that are being presented to you
你还需要花时间 that time you still gotta take
你必须接受你知道的建议 you gotta take the pitches you know
如果它们碰到盘子 if they come across the plate
你带他们 you take them
从长远来看，这一切都会解决的 this is all gonna work out in the long run when it
当它落下 when it comes down
一年后 you know a year later
你已经做了一百二百次交易 and you've done a hundred two hundred power many trades
然后分布在钟形曲线上 you're going to talk and distribute over a bell curve
只要你能有效地控制手腕 as long as you're managing your wrist effectively
你使用的是渐进曝光 you're using progressive exposure
别让自己掉进大洞里 not getting yourself in a big hole
你在那里是为了抓住机会 and you're there to play the opportunities and
陷入困境 staying on a trouble
一切都会水落石出的 it's all gonna come out in the wash whether
你从失败者开始，到最后 you start off with the losers and end up with
有的赢了，有的开始了 some winners or start off
马上 right off the hop
你可以直接从bgate里拿出来 and you'll get it just right out of the bgate
你得到了赢家，然后输家就来了 and you get the winners and then the losers come later
一切都会水落石出的 it's all going to come out in the wash
不会影响你的 it's not going to affect your
最终结果 ultimate result
但只要你没给自己惹上大麻烦 but as long as you're not getting yourself in big trouble
所以，如果事情不顺利，就把这些损失收起来 so keep carted those losses if things are not working and again
这就是为什么它不是 this is why it's not a
给大家一个建议 one advice for all
因为有人可能会晚一点进来 because somebody might be coming in a bit later
他们的手腕承受能力较差，所以他们加快速度较慢 their wrist tolerance is less so they've ratcheted it up slower
所以他们之后会变得更有攻击性 so now they're getting aggressive later
所以有些人的手腕承受能力更强 so while someone else just got a higher wrist tolerance
他们来得更早 they came in earlier
他们的速度非常快，非常正确 and they're ratching it up very quickly so right
他们的地位很好 they're in a good position
他们在赚钱，而你却被拦下了 they're making money meanwhile you're getting stopped out
你们基本上是同名同姓，或者在同一个宇宙里 and you're basically in the same names or in the same universe
没关系，你会的 that's okay you're gonna
彼此走弯路，但是 zag and zig with each other but
同样的事情反过来也会发生 the same thing will happen in reverse
你也会有一段时间做好事，而其他人可能会 too you'll be at one time doing good and the other person might
你知道当你走弯路的时候可能会走弯路 you know might be zigging when you're zagging
所以就 so just
坚持下去，继续管理风险与回报的关系 stick with it and keep managing the risk reward relationship
约瑟夫两周前被提到过 all right joseph is mention about two weeks ago he
对一些试点派有好感吗 had ok traction with some of the pilot pies
所以我就加大了我的尺码，然后开始服用 which is why i stepped up my size i proceeded to take
有几个名字我被拦下了 a few names i got stopped out on
奥施康定表现不太好 and oxy isn't acting too great
我经常考虑用一个更紧的句号 i often debated a tighter stop
但如果我看我过去的数据 but if i look at my numbers in the past
我经常被 i often choked
交易了 trades off to
早先我想坚持止损练习赠予股票 early i wanted to stick to the stops to practice gift stock
给股票更多的空间，让他们思考如何与之抗衡 giving the stocks more room any thoughts on how to compat this
好吧 well
如果你经常被拦在外面，我也会的马克 i would either if you're getting stopped out a lot and and mark
我一定要你跟这个谈谈 i definitely want you to speak to this
你知道你是否应该知道 you know as far as whether you should you know
给股票更多的空间，以及你知道如何应对这种情况 give stocks more room and how to you know combat this
如果你被拦在外面 if you're getting stopped out
这么说吧，你在外面被拦下了 let's just say you're getting stopped out
重复地说，这意味着有问题 repeatedly that means there's a problem okay
要么是市场出了问题 there's either problem with the market
或者你的标准有问题 or there's a problem with your criteria
所以你必须马上检查一下 so that you have to check that right away
你基本上是踢轮胎，说好吧 you basically kick the tires and say okay it
权力是我的标准 might is my criteria right
我买东西的标准正确吗?我买得好吗 am i buying from the correct criteria am i taking good
如果答案是肯定的，风险回报就会发挥作用 you know risk reward plays if the answers yes well
那你就会发现市场有问题 then you got a problem with the market you know
他们所处的环境并不那么好 they're at the environment just not that good
所以现在只有一个选择了 so it's gonna be one or the other now as far as
你知道如果我被拦在外面，我有压力 you know if i'm getting stopped out and i've got pressure on me
我开始收紧我的停顿，我没有给它们更多的空间 i start tightening my stops i do not give them more room
即使即使我阻止交易 even if even if i'm choking off the trades
如果我做得不好 if i'm not doing well
我不玩这些把戏了 i'm gonna choke off the tricks
这听起来可能很疯狂，你知道得很好 and it might sound crazy that you know okay well
然后你会得到更多你会得到很多 then you're gonna get more you're gonna get a lot of
可能会有损失，但损失很小 losses maybe but they're gonna be small
我要掐死他们，越来越，越来越，越来越 and i'm gonna choke them off more and more and more and
但我要努力让我的时机变得完美 but i'm gonna try to work on getting my timing perfect
这就是权衡 that's the trade off so
当你当你开始阻碍交易的时候 when you when you start choking off the trades
你得尽量让时机完美 you have to try to get the timing perfect
我从 so i start trading from
我给你们举个完美的例子 i'll give you a perfect example let's bring up
jbht所以 jbht so
JBHT就是一个很好的例子 jbht is a perfect example how i might trade if
事情不太顺利 things aren't going well
我想从一个更低的点出发 and i want to go from a lower extent point okay
这只股票上涨了 this stock pulls in
现在我买了它，它可能看起来像你知道的 and now i buy it it might look like you know
他在干什么，他在这里买根钢管 what's he doing he's buying a pole back here
而股票却在下跌 and a stock that's going down
但我从低点买入，也许就像 but i'm buying it coming off the lows and maybe it's like
只有0.5%或1% you know half a percent or one percent alone
我得在今天最低潮的时候停下来 i've got to stop at the low of the day
所以我要用最简单的方法 so i'm really going in there with a minimal
风险最小，如果我做对了 minimal risk and if i get it right you know
我买的是那天我能买到的回调 i'm buying the pullback i could that day alone could
是值得的 be worth it
如果这次回调，你会在低位买入吗 which now you buy this off the low here if this pullback
你在那天把自己拉近了 and you pull you close up on the day
假设这是2%我们就这么说吧 let's just say this is two percent but let's just say this
我们姑且说，最低止损率是2% let's just say that stop to the low is two percent
一天的温度越高 and the higher the day is
你知道，如果你要回到最高 you know if you're getting back to the highest
百分之四到五 four or five percent
这在盘中是2比1 that's a two to one just on the intraday
从盘中来看，这是有道理的 on an intraday basis that makes sense from it
从这一巴 from it from just that one bar
更不用说如果我做对了 not to mention that if i get it right
在起飞的时候，它会保持住，并进行回拉 it holds up and puts in a pullback by it takes off
刚刚回到以前的高点是一笔巨大的交易 a move just back up to the old highs is a huge r trade
另一个例子是 so another example would be
这个也是一样的，我给你们看一下 same thing here with this i'll show you
今天你就知道了 today you see how it
拉回 pulls back
在这里，它一路回来，一路交易 here and it comes all the way back now it's trading all the way
在这里 down here
如果我在这里买的话就是这个范围的一半 you know halfway in this range if i were to buy it right here
好吧，不是我最喜欢的 okay not my favorite you know
一个我想买的地方但如果我在这里买 a spot that i would look to buy it but if i bought it right here
我希望这个能成立 i would look for this to hold up
可能是买一件好衣服或者一件中号的衣服 probably to get a good clothes or a mid clothes
并不是很多 and not really come in very much
因为我离这个低谷已经很近了 because i'm so close to this low
如果它出来了，打破了周五的低谷 if it came out and took out this low of friday
那将是吞噬一切的一天 that would be an engulfing day
这将是 it would be
一个熊市吞噬一天，将是非常负面的一次 a bearish engulfing day that would be very negative once
我们试过这里的底部 we tried the bottom here
现在我们想看看这个托架是往里面放的 now we want to see this hold either go inside
这就是我们所说的 or this is what we call
三步，有两步，还有三步，我不知道 a three step there's a two step and a three step i don't know
如果你们中的一些人可能 if some of you probably
我以前没听说过 haven't heard this before
当你收盘时，两步回撤的买家 the two step pullback buyers when you close
你的衣服很漂亮 you have a good clothes
你拉回来，穿上好衣服，走进去 you pull back you have a good clothes and you go inside
然后从那里 then from there
可能是第二天吧 like the next day maybe
或者甚至是那天，你把前几天的高 or even that day you take out that previous days high
我们来做，我们来做 we'll do it we'll do a
关于这个的教程，我认为有一个是对的，鲍勃 tutorial on this and i think there is one right bob
有一个回调 there's a pullback yeah
如果你看了回撤教程 so if you watch the pullback by tutorial
您将学习 you'll learn
关于三步中的二步三步 about the two step in the three step the three step
你通常什么时候会旷课 is when usually you gap out
或者你可能刚从那个层次出来 or you might just come right out from that level
就像我们今天做的一样 like we did today
你去掉了兴奋 and you take out the high
但当你回到过去，你就会利用那天的高潮 but then you pull back in then you use the high of that day
作为你现在的中心 as your pivot now
另一种方法是当它往回拉的时候 the other way is that as it pulls back
进入你对自己说的范围 into the range you say to yourself
什么才是正常的 what would be normal
什么是不正常的 and what would be abnormal
那么我们现在离不正常还有多远呢 so how close are we to abnormal right now
我们离不正常越来越近了 we're getting closer and closer to abnormal
当我们越来越接近不正常的时候 and as we get closer and closer to abnormal
这 this
实际上现在手腕变得越来越直了 actually becomes a lower and lower and lower wrist straight now
抵消了 that's offset by the
事实是，它变得越来越不正常 fact that as it gets more and more abnormal
它起作用的概率低吗 is a lower probability of it working
所以你已经拥有了其中的两件事 so you've got two of those things that you've got engaged
如果这一路下降到这么低 so if this comes all the way back down now to this low
这实际上变得更低的概率，因为现在 that's actually becoming a much lower probability because now
它的表演更多 it's acting even more lot
越不正常，风险越低 more abnormal and the risk is lower
但它表现得很不正常，所以概率很低 but it's acting so abnormal that the probability is lower so
我可能会在这里买这个 again i might buy this right here
如果我不是你知道的 like if i wasn't you know in this
我可能会买这个 i might buy this
就在这里，找找看 right here and just look for it
有一件好衣服，或者从这里开始 to have a good clothes or turn up from here
现在再一次 and now again
假设我不知道，好吧，这要放在里面一两天 let's say i don't alright this goes inside for a day or two
现在改进得更多了 now has improved even more
从那里开始 turns up from there
现在你可以看到 now you can see
我在这里画了一条小线来对抗反转 i have that little line set against that reversal right there
这就是我今天看到的 that's what i'm looking at today
这将是教科书式的倒退 and that would be a textbook pullback
通过一个支点和低作弊 by with a pivot and a low cheat
所以你看 so you see
我有各种各样的方法来玩这个小插曲 i've got all these ways to play this little pullback i've got
有这么多种玩法 so many ways to play it
现在有这么多方法来看待它 so many ways to look at it now
像马克·里奇这样的人会听到我刚才说的一切 someone like mark richie is gonna hear everything i just said
完全理解它 understand it perfectly
并且能够独自完成所有的任务 and be able to execute all that on his own without any
完全没有我的帮助 without my help at all
另一个人是新的 somebody else that's new
可能会说他到底在说什么 might be saying what the hell is he talking about you know
我不明白怎么怎么 i don't understand how what
他说的就是这些 he's talking about with all this
我又怎么知道 and how am i supposed to figure out if
概率就是风险 the probability is versus the risk
这需要时间，需要时间 so again it takes time it takes time
但你有这么多机会，仅此而已 but you have all these opportunities and it's all
注意我所做的一切都是基于风险的 based on notice how everything i'm doing is being based on risk
所以这一切都是基于风险，可能就像玩扑克一样 so all being based on risk and probably just like playing poker
我手上王牌的概率 probabilities of the hand i've got aces
我知道牌前王牌的概率我知道 i know the probability of aces pre flop i know
ACES和 the probability of aces versus
冲板 a flush board
现在我要看这个罐子里面有多少钱 now i have to look at the pot how much is in the pot
我的床上用品多少钱 how much in my bedding
如果有 if there's
如果罐子里有五十美元 if there's fifty dollars in the pot
我不会在一个50美元的罐子里赌500美元 i'm not going to bet five hundred into a fifty dollar pot
下十比一的赔率 and lay ten to one odds
赌注是500美元，我赌50美元 there's five hundred in the pot and i bet fifty dollars
这可能是一个伟大的戏剧 that might be a great play
尽管我的胜算不大 even though maybe the odds are against me
但我的赔率是十赔一 but i'm getting ten to one
明白这就是你要衡量的 understand so this is what you're trying to gauge
这不是科学上可以解释的 and this is not something that you can just scientifically
输入计算器或电子表格，然后算出来 just put into a calculator or spreadsheet and figure out
这需要技巧和技巧 this takes skill and
这是一种飞机，就像开喷气式飞机 it's a craft just like flying a jet or
开赛车或者打棒球 driving a race car or hitting a baseball
这是黄金切线，这是切线 that was a golden tangent there was a tangent
我不知道这是不是偏离正题了 was definitely a tangent i don't know
如果它是多么的金黄，那真是太好了 if how golden it was was true well
我也有我没有马上学会这个，但是 i also had i did not learn this all right away but
马克的观点是可以学习的 to mark's point it can be learned
绝对哦 absolutely oh
这绝对是可以反复学习的 it could absolutely be learned and and again
我想指出关于这种倒退的另一件事 i want to point on another thing to this pull back
我们之所以 the reason why we're
你知道我们会这么做是因为它在撤退 you know we'd be even doing this is because it's pulling back
不仅仅是寻找内在的正常行为 not only looking for the normal action within
这里的拉力 this pull back right here
但我们要寻找的是它回拉时的正常动作 but we're looking for the normal action as it pulls back
的突破 to the breakout
所以从这里往下，到这里越远 so the further it goes down from here and goes into this
大的巨大的突破 big giant breakout
它不再有意义了，不是你画的这个 it's not making sense anymore it's not this what you drew there
马克和《violer》里的乔很像哦 mark is very similar to that joe setup that was on violer oh
好的，我们把它拉上来 yes yeah let's pull that up
是的，非常相似 yeah which yeah very similar
刚才的爆炸就像就像火箭一样 which just boom came out like a like a rocket here
如果你碰巧买了，你会发现 so again if you happen to be buying and you see
它是怎么回到这里来的 how it came it came back down here
就在低处，然后有好衣服 right by the low then had the good clothes
所以情况不一样，但是 so get not the same situation but
在右边做了这个把手 built this handle here on the right side
现在从右边开始 and now just shot right up the right side here
是的 yeah
马克，我不知道你能不能在你的图表上找到ctic mark i don't know if you pull up ctic on your charts going back
到2000年初谁在沈阳 to the early two thousands谁在沈阳
它的价格似乎超过了100美元 it looks like it had a price point that was upwards of a hundred
二十万年 two hundred thousand
那时候，这么远的距离对你来说重要吗 at that time would that matter to you being so far back
这个问题好吗 is the question be nice
我不知道，绝对不要放弃 yeah i don't know no absolutely not pack in
二千年不 two thousand no
这很重要 that would matter at all
当我看价格的时候你就知道了 you know that really when i'm looking at price
你知道，我回头看如果你看得很长远的话 you know i'm looking back if you're looking at real long term
你可能看起来活力四射，但是 you know you might look vibrant ten years but
不，你要找什么并不重要 no that doesn't really matter what you're looking for
看看发生了什么 is look as to what's happening
因为它已经进入了第二阶段 since it's been in a stage two
上升趋势，甚至在这种情况下，我进入了第二阶段 up trend or even in this occasion i went to a stage two
你知道的 then sort of you know
看起来好像是顶部，然后又折回来了 look like it was topping and then turned back
进入权力游戏 up into a power play
回到早期阶段第二阶段 you know and back into an early stage stage two
关键是它在新阶段的第二阶段做了什么 the key is what's it doing in that new stage two
如果管理费是多少年前的 and how far back if the overhead is you know a years back
那么它就不是初始值了 then it's not going to be initial
是否存在洗牌过度的情况 is there such a thing as a shakeout being too excessive
詹姆斯正在询问露丝的情况 james is asking about ruth
您是2月24日和3月7日吗 are you th on february 24 and march seventh
是的 well yes
我的意思是，有一种东西叫过度 i mean there is such thing as being too excessive
波动性太大 having too much volatility
同样地，你要用同样的方法 again you're just gonna apply the same exact
规矩不能太规矩 rules don't get too
地狱一心想 hell bent on
看着落水开始测量落水 looking at the shakout and starting measuring the shakout
基地内部的行动是什么样子的 what does the base look like in the action within the base
我的意思是 so here i mean
这有各种各样的问题 this is got all kinds of problems you know
我的意思是，让我们先测量一下 i mean let's first i always measure
深度大约是高度的42% the depth so this is about forty two percent off the high
所以这是相当过分的 so it's fairly excessive
但是你看这里 but you see here
两百天 the two hundred days
偷了你一股颓势 stolen a down trend you rather
还没有进入你甚至都没有进入的上升趋势 haven't gotten into an up trend you're not even in
你还没来得及转弯呢 you're not even in an early turn here
你还没来得及转身呢 you're not even an early turn
因为两百天根本没有上升 because the two hundred day isn't even moving up
甚至连几天都没有，实际上有下降的趋势 not even for a couple days it's actually in a down trend
仍然受到影响 and still being affected by
这里的下降加上 this decline here plus
右边这里很潦草 it's pretty sloppy here on the right side
你的大部分行为 most of your action
你在基地的很多行动 a lot of your action in the basing is
低于两百天 below the two hundred days
所以这是一个整天落伍的人 so this is a laggard all day long
这是非常滞后的 this is showing very lagging
特征，如果这可以建立右边 characteristics now if this can build out this right side
然后变得更有建设性一点 and get a little more constructive
再来一点 get a little more
对称性你可以玩 symmetry you can play it
但这是一个很大的基础，很深的基础，你想要的很深的基础 but it's a big base a deep base so deep bases you want to be
大的基底如果浅的话就可以是它们 large bases you know if they're shallow they could be they
不需要那么大 don't have to be as large
你知道这是 you know this this was
如果你想守住这真的不是洗牌 if you want to hold it this really wasn't a shakeout
这只是 this was just
一个拉回，你知道在 a pull back you know a spike within the
你知道在那里面 you know within that
试图建立的枢轴 pivot that was trying to build
但是你会看到它在这里又回来了 but then you see it comes back again here there's just
波动性太大 too much volatility here
这就是波动太大的问题吗 is that's the problem there's too much volatility here
还没完全放下 hasn't quite it down yet
这意味着有供应 and that means there's supply
詹姆斯问他在3月15日买了costco COST james is asking he bought costco COST on march 15
它现在正在设置另一个by - point it's now setting up another bypoint
如果你已经持有的股票上涨了，那么你就有了新的投资机会 if a stock you already own goes up and develops another entry
但市场突然变得不利 but the market suddenly becomes unfavorable
还是加到原来的位置好吗 which you still add to the original position well
我不知道市场变得不利是什么意思 i don't know what does that mean the market becomes unfavorable
这是一个非常模糊的术语 that's an enormously vague term
所以我不知道那是什么意思 so i have no idea what that means
所以我唯一不会添加设置的情况是 so the only time that i would not add to a setup is if
我被拦了下来，赔了钱，丢了东西 i'm getting stopped and i'm losing money and things
不工作 aren't working
你知道那是那是我的赌注 you know that would be the that's my gage
我的衡量标准是我做得有多好 my gage is is how am i doing how well
我的位置怎么样? are my positions doing
这就是不利环境 so that's the unfavorable environment
我不认为市场不是 i don't not looking at the market as being
有利或不利 favorable or unfavorable
我在看 i'm looking at
我的股票交易怎么样了，做得好不好 what's happening with my stock trading and if it's doing well
事情进展得相对顺利 and things are going relatively well
现在我们只能说这还行，我已经 now let's just say it's sort of okay and i've got
有得也有失，但我平平淡淡 gains i've got losses but i'm flat well
然后我可能会补充 then i probably would add
但它会更小 but it would be smaller
它会更小 it would be smaller
所有的姿势都是相对的 positions all gonna just be relative to how well
我做标记 i'm doing mark
据你所知，你怎么样 how about you as far as you know favorable
当然是不利的环境 unfavorable environment i mean certainly
我不会看指数 i wouldn't look at the index
我会看看你的交易进展如何 as i would look at how's your trading going normally
我不加的另一个原因好像我已经加了一样 the other reason i wouldn't add as if i already
如果我已经 if i'm already
在一个仓位上，规模不够大，但有时 at a position size isn't big enough but sometimes
俗话说马克 the old saying mark
使用你已经拥有的最好的股票工具 uses the best stock device the one you already own
我喜欢把股票放在次要的支点上 i'd love it when stocks put in those secondary pivots yeah
我也是绝对 me too absolutely
这只是说明它在工作它在经历这个过程 that just shows that it's working it's going through that
然后我就能建立一个更大的头寸 process and then i'm able to build a larger position
我想补充一点 i would add one thing to mark
让我们用一个类似的例子 let's get i think you use it similar example
在周末 in the weekend
与那些 with those
那些混蛋体育用品和其他金融股票 those the dicks sporting goods and that other financial stock
但是我们说 but let's say
假设这只股票在市场上跌至新低 let's say this stock sets up at the market goes to new lows
这就像一个 that's like a
双提升 double improvement
所以不要让市场这个事实 so don't let the fact that the market
如果你的股票是持有的，他们把二级枢纽 if your stocks are holding and they put in secondary pivots
仅仅因为市场的复苏，这就是现象级的 just because the market's coming off that's phenomenal
如果你没有被正确阻止 if you're not getting stopped right
这是一个关键，我认为非常关键和微妙的一点 that's a that's a key i think that very key point and subtlety
我想在图表上指出来的 that i tried to point out on that chart
如果你没看过那块表 if you haven't watched that watch
这周末的视频，我要谈谈鸡巴 this weekend's video where i talk about dicks
我交易的股票 a stock that i traded
然后 and then
你们知道jx，当然 you know the the jx and of course
我们现在在dix的例子中 that we have now in the dix example
你让市场跌到一个更低的低点 you had the market go to a lower low
但是老二形成了右边 and but dicks formed that right side
这和马克说的一模一样 and so that's exactly as mark just said
这正是我要找的，我要找的 that's exactly what i'm looking for i'm looking for
股票正在增加 the stocks that are building
基地还在运转 the base is holding up
建立这些支点是因为 building those pivots because
这是它让人们措手不及的地方 this is where it catches people off guard
一般人都去哪了 where the average guys going on board
股市跌到了新低我什么都不碰 a market stock has just hit new lows i'm not touching anything
与此同时,他们不 meanwhile they're not
看领导 watching the leaders
大多数人首先要看 most people look first of all
大多数人都不知道如何阅读这些图表 most people don't do and have a clue how to read these charts
正确的对吧 correctly all right
这是第一点 that's number one
即使是你们当中正在做这件事的还有你们的还有你们的 even those of you that are doing this and your and your
和我在一起还需要时间 side by side with me it's going to take time before
你可以这样做，还有很多 you're able to do this and a lot of
你认识的人 people that you know
在他们得到专业知识之前尝试一下这个方法 attempt this quit before they get the expertise
他们觉得这太难了，花的时间太长了 they find it too difficult and it takes too long
他们认为这比实际要容易得多 and they think it's going to be easier than it is
所以大部分是他们的99点 so most their ninety nine point
九个 nine
百分之几的投资者根本不知道如何阅读这些东西 percent of investors don't have a clue how to read this stuff
所以不要认为这是显而易见的 so don't think it's that obvious
当市场出现新情况时 and then when the market's going to new
低点和这些股票正在建立 lows and these stocks are setting up
里面的人很少 there's very few people that are in there
服从它们，所以你可能会说，是什么让它们移动 obeying them so you might say well what makes them move
投资者太少了 there's so few investors
因为为数不多的投资者都是有钱的人 because the few investors are the ones with the big money
这是当小 it's when the little
伙计们，他们都对自己的购买信心十足 guys and they're all confident in their buying
一切看起来都很美好，每个人都在街上 and everything looks rosy and everybody on the street
所有你的朋友和零售买家 all your friends and the retail buyers
都是买 are all buying
这就是机构不断卖出的时候 that's when the institutions are selling and selling into that
所以你想成为独狼 so you want to be that lone wolf
这就是你想在里面的全部想法 that's the whole idea you want to be in there
尽可能在市场低点附近买入 buying as close to the market lows as possible
但是买领头的股票表现很好 but buying the leaders the stocks are acting really good
而不是坐在这里试图 not sitting here trying to
底栖鱼贝宝 bottom fish paypal
让我们嗯 let's uh
唐在问马克 don is asking mark
你如何通过连续的停止来改变你的停止 how are you modifying your stops with these successive
打造你的狐狸 build of your fox
这是昨天周末视频中的一个观点 a position from yesterday's weekend video
确切地说，它们是如何张贴的 exactly how they're posted
这真的没有什么不同 it's really not no nothing different
但是车站都贴好了 but the stops are posted
所以你知道 so you know
在这个特殊的例子中 in this particular instance
即使我们在这里有一个很好的结束，结束了高 even if we had a good close here and closed out of the high
我还是会找I i would still be looking for i
还需要这些高汤才能进去 still need this stock to go inside and
加强 to tighten up
因为波动太大了 because there's just too much volatility
它还是太不稳定了 it's just still too volatile here
所以你知道 so you know
如果你真的对这件事很感兴趣 if you were really someone who was really tight on this and
试着把它做好 trying to get it dead right
你知道的，它出现了，但没起作用，开始下降 you know it turned up it didn't work starting turns down
拿掉这个负荷，你知道你阻止自己出去 takes out this load you know you stop yourself out
你等着看它会不会重置 you wait to see if it resets
我想给它一点空间 want to give it a little bit of room
看看它能不能在里面待几天 and see if it can go inside here for a few days
这样也很好 that's fine too
但这当然还没有朝着正确的方向发展 but again this is certainly not going in the right direction yet
但就像我说的 but it's like i said
我在这个旁边放了个格子 i started putting astrix next to this one
你知道在过去几周我们买它的时候 you know over the last few weeks when we were buying it
我说这绝对是 i said that this was definitely
非常有创意，想让它从低谷中走出来 a super creative and trying to get it off the lows here
好吧 all right
让我们看看 let's see
在你加更多股份的时候标记一下 mark while you add more shares
然后你第一次来 then your first by
你会比第一次加更多的杜松吗 will you add more shares than your first by take juniper
作为一个例子 as an example
如果你只买百分之六点四 if you only bought six and a quarter percent
回到3月17日，当它爆发的时候，你就会赶上它 back on march seventeen while you bump it up when it breaks out
周五爆发的时候 when it broke out on friday
绝对，绝对，我不认识你，马克 absolutely absolutely i don't know mark you
我不知道你可能做过 you probably did that i don't know
你在六月过得怎么样 well are you in june
我想他是问你会买吗 i think he was asking would you buy
比你最初买的更多 more than your initial buy is that right
鲍勃的意思 bob meaning
这是正常的吗 was that the normally
有时我会，有时我会 sometimes i will sometimes i will oh right
他说你会不会从四分之一的尺寸 so he's saying would you go from like a quarter size
我们讨论过的可能是完全正确的 that we talked to maybe to a full right right
正确的是 right yes
我的回答是，只要改进了设置，就绝对可以 my answer is absolutely as long as the setup improved
这就是我们要做的 that's exactly what's gonna be
我的回答，所以他是对的 my answer so he's right right
但通常我会做另一件事我会做的是 but normally i tend to the other thing i would i would do is
如果我如果我这么做了 if i if i did that though let's say
举个例子，5% let's say i think the example was you know five percent
他会把它带到 he's gonna take it to a
20%左右，他会 twenty percent or something like that where he's gonna
就像三垒打一样 it's almost like a triple up
我肯定会把我的停车时间提前到 i would definitely move my stop up with
如果我要这么咄咄逼人的话 if i'm gonna be that aggressive
我要 i'm gonna
我要积极地管理这个职位，我不只是要 i'm gonna aggressively manage the position i'm not just gonna
让那你知道回到原来的那一站 let that you know come back to the original stop
你也可以用你知道 right and you can also use you know
不同的止损点，你可以用两个不同的头寸进行交易 separate stops you can trade it as two separate positions
所以你的初始位置 so your original position
通过低欺骗买入 bought through the low cheat
你有最初的一站，也许现在 you have that original stop and maybe now
这实际上是满足质量要求 that's meeting the quality is actually
你停顿了一下，然后爆发出来，现在你已经 you have a pause you break out so now that you've had
你知道这是自然反应 you know natural reaction that was
以支点或柄的形式 in the form of a pivot or a handle
它干掉了那个高度 it took out that high
所以你可以通过移动止损点来实现收支平衡 so now you would move that stop to break even
但把第二次爆发当作马库斯说的另一次 but then treat that second breakout as marcus saying as another
你知道这个职位的一部分或者另一个职位 you know part of the position or another position
然后停下来 and have a stop on that
所以我会用同样的方式来对待 so that's i would treated the same that that same way
这也得到了改善 and again this is improved
这种低级的欺骗并不是最好的设置 this low cheat wasn't the greatest setup it didn't
造成很长时间或 caused for very long or
一天也没有 not even one day
然后就出来了 and then came right out so
你知道，这不是最棒的 this wasn't the greatest you know
这不是超级兴奋 this wasn't a super high
概率会从这里消失 probability setup to just come ripping out of here
左边这里有一些供给 going into a bit of supply here on the left side
所以这就是你要 so this would be yeah the time where you would
也许拿四分之一或一半 maybe take a quarter or a half
然后就像它自己证明的那样 and then as it proves itself
现在又回到了以前的高潮 and now gets up to these old highs
就像我之前指出的 and like i pointed out before
你总是从枢轴的顶端开始 you always go from the top of the pivot
在左边画一条线 draw line to the left
看左边，供给图是什么样的 and look to the left and see what the supply picture is like
你看，它在那里放晴了 you see when it clears there
它清空了所有供给 it clears all supply
到目前为止，它表现得很完美 so now this is acting perfect i mean so far
发生的一切 everything's going
这种交易很完美，我的意思是这种情况会继续下去 perfect in this trade as i mean it's going to continue that way
并在今天或明天崩溃 and come crashing down today or tomorrow
但现在一切都在按计划进行 but right now everything's going as planned
所以这实际上是改进了的 and so this is set up actually improved
这里的价格更高 and at a higher price here
这是一个更好的 this is a better by
这上面比下面好，所以是的 this is a better by up here than it is down here so yes
我肯定会更积极一些 i would definitely get more aggressive on that
如果你做你的帐户 if you do your account
8天中的7天 what are you seven of eight days
我想还是六七天涨，量大 i think or six or seven days up and volume
看起来很不错 so it looks pretty good
对吧对吧 right right
是的 yeah
我们从这个越狱者从那个低骗者到现在 we got here from this breakout from the from the low cheat one
我们有两个 two we've got
我们可以叫它三四五 we can call it three four five
看起来七天中有五六天你都知道 it looks like you know five or six days out of seven days
或者至少 or at least
你知道的，七天中有五天 you know five days out of seven days up and
好衣服好衣服好衣服好衣服 good clothes good clothes good clothes good clothes
好衣服只有几件不好的衣服 good clothes only a couple bad clothes
所以你知道 so you just you know
去读我的书像个冠军一样交易 just go to my book thinking trade like a champion
你会看到违规的证明 you're gonna see the confirmations the violations
这很简单 that that's the simple
计算你想做的还是简单的 calculation that you want to do or the simple
估计一下你想在每只股票崩盘的时候做什么 gauge that you want to do every time a stock breaks out
你想看接下来的日子 you want to watch the subsequent days
在前一两个星期 through the through the first week or two
好好计算一下，看看一切是否正常 and make those counts and see if things are going normally
好吧，杰瑞问我，我总是买 alright jerry is asking i always buy
在回调的头几天，解体本身就太早了 a breakup itself too early on the first few days of a pullback
例如，他买了unh for example he bought unh
3月17日卖了，3月23日我发现我 march seventeenth sold it on march twenty third i found that i
受不了股票下跌 can't stand the stock falling
我该如何改善这种心态 how can i improve this metality
我想我们之前也没有参考文献 i think we have no references earlier too
我不能忍受股票下跌 i can't stand a stock falling
要么，我你知道我很快就会放弃诱饵逃跑 either and i'm you know i'm very quick to cut bait and run
关键是你必须 the thing is is that you have to make
确定你不会得到 sure that you're not getting
淘汰 knocked out
不自然的运动没有真正的原因 unnatural movements that where it's not there's no real reason
除了你 to other than you just
你是否对失去亲人感到不舒服 are you know not comfortable with the loss
如果你对失去的感觉不舒服 if you're not comfortable with the lost
你需要定位 and you have to position
规模较小的 the size smaller
否则你就得这么做 or you're going to have to
做更多的交易和 do more trading and be
有重返大气层的机制让你把自己弄晕 able to have reentry mechanisms where you knock yourself out
然后你再回来 and you get back in
最主要的是 so the main thing is you know
我也不知道你到底在哪 and i don't know where you're exactly
你在哪里购买，压力有多大 where you're buying and how much pressure
你真的亏了这支股票 you're under but this stock really
如果你看一下，它几乎没有进来 if you look at it hasn't come in hardly at all
我的意思是，自从爆发以来最大的一次反弹是 i mean let's the largest pull back since that breakout here is
让我们看看是多少，两点四 let's see what is it is two point four percent
这是非常紧的，所以你可能 so that's super tight so you might be
可能定位太大了 maybe positionizing too large
另一个点 another point
我猜马克会是 i guess mark this would be
更多的是一个问题和评论，但是 more of a question and a comment together but
如果你发现你的性格是你不想要的 if you find that your personality is one where you don't want
把能告诉我的东西还给我 to give anything back that just tells me
你可能需要做一个短线交易者 you potentially need to be a shorter term trader
我是说你你得好好练练你的 i mean you just you're gonna have to really work on your
把握时机，交易第一步 timing and trade that first move
因为如果你不能忍受 because if you can't stomach
我的意思是，这是一个非常正常的回落 that i mean that was a very normal pullback
你永远都不会让 you're never gonna be able to let
你知道股票交易 you know to trader stock
一个普通的挥杆动作 for a normal swing move versus you know
比如说一个两天的爆发 say a one two day breakout
对，还有一件事就是做 yeah and the other thing too is to do
就像我所做的 like what i do where you know
我要进去 i'll go in there
股票朝着我的方向移动 and the stock moves in my direction
短期收益可以抵消一些损失并起到缓冲作用 the short term takes some off and cushion that loss
这样就更容易坚持下去了 it becomes a lot easier to hold through
如果你获得了一些利润 if you've got some profit that you've taken
也许如果它不是 and maybe if it didn't even
它甚至不 it didn't even
免费给你，因为你要承担全部损失 free roll you where you're actually covering the whole loss
但也许你只承担了一半 but maybe you're covering half of it
现在这种损失变小了 and now that loss is smaller
然后你就能熬过去了 and you're able to go through it
然后你开始得到两个世界的好处 and you start to get the best of the both worlds
你知道 you know that
再说一遍，这一切都必须建立在你自己的个性上 again that all has to be built around your own personality
你自己的风险承受能力仓位大小是否合适 your own risk tolerance position sizing whether you
免费滚动交易或者你知道你让他们撤回多少 free roll trades or how much you know you let them pull back
在你知道之前，你把它们剪掉这些各种各样的 before you know you cut them out these various
岗位管理方面 aspects of the position management
这些都是你个人的反映还是结果 are all a reflection or a result of your own personal
风险承受力和你自己的个人能力 risk tolerances and your own personal
交易的风格和个性，你必须 style and personality of trading and you have to sort of
在战略中塑造这些东西 mold those things within the strategy
之后凯利会问两位股票巨擘两个问题 kelly's asking two questions of the stock titans just after
从把手中挣脱出来 breaks out from the handle
如果它低于高度，那它是圣经吗 is it bible if it's below the height
杯子的 of the cup
或者在杯子高度的5%以内，比如ivt or within five percent of the height of the cup like ivt
谢谢你给我举了个例子 you know thanks for giving me an example
如果我们有例子，事情就容易多了 it's always easier if we have examples
所以我认为你说的是它在这里爆发 so i think what you're talking about here is it breaks out here
这实际上是一个非常漂亮的设置 which actually is a very nice beautiful setup here
但是我想 but i guess
这可能不是一个舞台上的趋势太多 this is probably not in a stagedup trend too much here
也许这就是原因 and maybe that's why
这也是最好的财产信托 this is the best property trust also
但是要远离这些 but to kind of stand away from those
但这真的很完美 but this is really perfect right here
我猜她可能就是在说这个 i guess she maybe talking about this right here
这里收紧了吗 where it's tightened up here
现在是的 now yeah
从那以后你没有给出确切的日期，但是 bringing out from there you didn't give the exact dates but
似乎 seems like it
对不起，我说她是英雄吗，她，是的 i'm sorry did i say she is it a hero she yeah
我很抱歉 i'm sorry
我不确定这里指的是什么 so so yeah i'm not sure what is being referenced here
但这是一个完美的安排 but this is a perfect setup you know
至于 as far as
只是看我看的不是相对强度 just looking i'm not looking at the relative strength here
你知道的趋势 the trend you know
是否 whether
它是在一个舞台上，比我刚才看到的都要差 it's in a stage show up to none of that i'm just looking at
仅仅是价格变动 just this price action
这是一个完美的BCP，现在在这里爆发 this is a perfect bcp so now you break out now here
你坐在越狱者的右边 you're sitting on top of the breakout right
所以我们可以在这里画一条直线 so we could draw this line right across here
这就是爆发的地方，即使你 this is where it's broken out even if you
在这里 here
我们要把它放到主轴的正上方 we'll bring it down actually to right the top of the the pivot
所以它是正确的 so it's come right
回去那里 back down there
你现在知道我的答案是 you know now i you know my answer is
在越狱现场学习怎么买 learn how to buy it at the breakout you know
这是我真正的答案是我你知道的 that's my real answer is i you know
买对了，试着买对了 buy it right give try to always buy it right
别想这些 don't start coming up with these
后期的辅助技术 adjunct techniques that are late
试着从一开始就把它们买下来 try to buy them right in the first place now
有时候你就是看不见它们 sometimes you just don't see them
这是一个伟大的突破，或者说突破非常棒 and then it's a great breakout or the breakout is so nice
有一天你可能会收回市场 that you get that one day pull back maybe the markets down
你知道你还有另一个机会 you know you get another opportunity
我要做的是 what i'll do is
有时我会在回调时买入，当它回升时买入 sometimes i'll buy it on a pullback buy as it turns back up
然后转弯 and then turns through
前一天的高点从低点反弹 the previous day's higher comes up off the lows
所以你可以这样做，你支付了一些 so you can do that you're paying up a little bit
但如果你真的是从基底延伸出来的 but if you're really extended from the base
然后我就会更 then i would be more
小心点，如果它刚好在锅底上 careful with that if it's just sitting right on top of the base
你们是一对只差一到两个百分点的夫妻 you're a couple you know one or two percent away
那就更安全了 then it's a little safer play
还好吧 all right also
他问像mp这样的股票 he's asking when a stock like mp
玛丽保罗 mary paul
右边的价格波动不大 that doesn't have very tight price action on the right side
但一直表现强劲的他最喜欢的上下比 but has been acting strong his favorite up down ratio
而且是在一个强大的群体中 and in a strong group
你会考虑绑定它吗 would you have considered bind it
当它像3月16日那样达到关键水平时 when it hit the key level like on march sixteenth
打开下管 break in the downtron
3月16日在这里或3月18日enable march sixteenth is right here or march eighteenth form enable
好十八 well eighteenth
我买它的唯一原因是 the only reason why i would have bought it is
因为你知道这里有个暂停枢轴 because you know you had this little pause pivot here
你从这个负荷表上下来只需要 and you're coming off this little load sheet within a
你知道的欺骗 the cheat you know
但这并没有收紧 but this just didn't tighten up
供给足够了，起作用了，起作用了，是的 enough it was going into that supply it worked it worked yes
你可以看到你说的那些人，一，二 and you can see the guys you said the count one two
三天四夜都涨了 three four out of five days up
6天，4到6天，看起来没问题 six days four to six days up it looks fine
这是事后诸葛亮 that's in hindsight though okay
所以 so
事后看来，如果我在这里，就不会了 looking not in hindsight if i was here no
我不会买的，我不会买的，所以 i wouldn't be buying it i wouldn't be buying that so
只是对我来说有点太宽泛了，不够 it's just it's a little too broad out from me and not enough
我宁愿看到右边的发展 right side development i would rather see it
在这里收紧一点进入这一层 tighten up a bit right here going into this level
在47左右 around the 47 level
但有时它们会像这样把右边撕开 but sometimes they just rip right up the right side like this
我只是不想参与而已 i'm just not going to participate in it
好康斯坦丁 okay constantine
你是在问我在为过去几年做一本模型书吗 is asking i'm trying to build a model book for the past years
什么时候是最好的 when is the best possible
制作一本模型书的最好方法是什么 what is the best possible way to build a model book
什么应该包含在里面，什么不应该包含在里面 what should be included in it and what should not be in it
你能给我们看看你的模型书吗 can you show us some of your model book
这样我们就可以用它作为模板 so that we can use it as a template
这是个好问题，你知道我 okay well that's a great question and you know i
我最好的样板书 my best model books
或者至少你们认识你们中的一些人 or at least you know some of the some of the you
我的书里会有这样的例子 know examples are going to be in my books
所以这是你首先要找的地方 so that would be the first place you look
因为你们在我的书里有很多例子 because you have a whole bunch of examples in my books
下一个地方就是如果你 the next place would be if you
当然是学了贸易大师课程 came to the master trader program of course
你从哪弄来五百页的练习册 where you get a five hundred page workbook
里面有很多很多很多的模型 that has tons and tons and tons of models in it
构建自己的模型有几种方法 building your own models is a couple ways
首先，你想建立自己的交易模型 number one you want to build models of your own trades
这是后期分析，所以你会 that's for post analysis so you would actually
把你的交易打印出来，让我看看 print out your trades and i prefer to look at them
三个月，六个月后 you know three months six months later
交易结束后我就不太想回去了 after the trade is sort of out of my mind that i go back
作为一个客观的观察者 sort of as an objective observer
也许让 and maybe let
三个月或六个月的价格波动 you know three months or six months of price action develop
在你的入口之后甚至在你的出口之后 after your entry point or even after your exit point
然后你可以看到发生了什么 and then you can see kind of what transpired
和构建 and build that
每季度做一次回顾 and do that review you know i would say quarterly you know
甚至每年一次 and even and annually
就你想要建立的模型而言 as far as building models of that you want to like find
你想要模仿的模型 models of that you want to mimic
然后你就得回去看看 then you've got to go back and look at the
赢钱最多的股票，去看看设置 biggest winning stocks and go look for the setups and see
你知道这支大赢家的股票 you know did this big winning stock set up
什么具有所有的特征和因素模型 what did have all the characteristics and factor model
到这些 into those
那些最赚钱的股票让你一开始就只看 those best winning stocks so you start off the just look at the
是每年最大的赢家 biggest winning stocks of each year
然后再回去看一看 and then go back and take a look and
不要回到你知道的地方 don't back into it where your you know
结果证明 the result justifies
均值上升了 the mean just because it went up
你说我要找到这个东西的入口 and you say i got to find an entry on this thing
有时候你的股票会有大的波动 sometimes you have stocks that make big moves
他们不会给你机会去买 and they just don't give you an opportunity to buy them
在一个低风险的入口点 at a low risk entry point
所以你必须客观地去寻找 so you have to be objective and find
哪里有 where there are
显然是符合标准的区域 clearly areas that would have met the criteria
那是我要找的 that i'm looking for
有机会在低风险的进场点买入 and had that chance to buy at a low risk entry point
在它阻止我退出之前，我能一直持有那只股票 and be able to stay in that stock before it stopped me out
这就是艺术 and that's the art of
我猜是在做模型书 building the model book i guess or
甚至是制作模型书的科学 the even the science of building the model book
梅格问你什么时候买半价 meg is asking when you buy half position
然后再加上你是否将其视为两种不同的交易 then add to it do you treat that as two different trades
或者你 or do you
把它们当作混合的 treat them as a blended
一个世纪的代价 a price of a century yeah
报告的性能是 for reporting the performance is
如果我让你知道，报告他的表现 if i would have you know report that performance
在我自己的表格上 so either on my own spreadsheet
如果我买了一只股票xyz，我们会把它算作一笔交易 we would count it as one trade if i bought a stock xyz
然后卖掉，再买回来 then sold it and bought back into it
这是两笔交易，但如果我买了四分之一，而不是一半 it would be two trades but if i bought a quarter than a half
然后把它加满 then bumped it to a full
是的，我们会用平均价格，然后 yeah we would use the average price and then that would
即使有多次停歇，也要以此为基础 be based off of that even if there was multiple stops
我们只是把所有东西平均一下，然后得到 we were just average everything out and get what
净收益是 the net gain was
美元收益除以总仓位价值 the dollar gain divided by the total position value
没错，这就是分析 yep and that's how the analytics
你也会这样做吗 will do that as well for you if you
按你能进入的方式输入 enter it that way you can enter
个人期货交易对 individual trades of future yeah
这就是它的好处 that's the nice thing about
我们的分析显示我们有投资组合 our analytics where you we have the portfolio
可以追踪的地方 tracking where you can
你可以把这些位置放在四分之一/一半 you can put those positions in there quarter half
减少你可以减少和 reduce you can reduce and
然后做那些旋转动作，这是非常困难的 and do all those gyrations which would be very hard
自己计算是很费时间的 to be very time consuming to calculate that yourself
为了调整所有这些，这真的 and in adjust for all that that's really
真正的关键 a real key to
如果你是一个循序渐进的人 you know if you're one that moves incrementally
和建立击中的位置和鳞片 and built hit the positions and scales out the
你们知道我们的分析 you know our analytics
交易柜真的是无价的 the trading locker is really invaluable for that
对会计进行分析 analysis and and for that accounting
让我们看看安德烈会不会 let's see andre can you
我猜你能描述一下三十八秒奏国歌的动作吗 can you i guess describe the action on three eighteen for anthem
蚂蚁被视为翻腾 antm viewed as churning
三百一十八年 three eighteen
所以318在这里 so three eighteen is right here
是的，我是说你有那么大的容量，我不知道 yeah i mean you had that volume came in i don't know if
那天到底发生了什么 what was happening or that day
但你肯定知道你没有 but certainly you know you didn't get
它有点翻腾翻腾的意思是 it was a little bit of churning churning means
在没有价格进步的情况下，你会获得大量的销量 you get a lot of volume without price progress
你可以看到股票在一两天内被偷走了 and you see the stock stole out for a day or two
但是当你第一次买股票的时候 but when you first buy a stock
它穿过轴心点 and it comes through your pivot point
你设定股票的止损点 and you set your stop you want to give the stock
一些时间和一些空间 some time and some room
让它阻止你 let it stop you out
看，原来的止损点应该算在哪里 see that original stop should have been calculated where
你能够经历那个倒退，当然现在 you're able to go through that pullback and now of course
如果股票在此期间出现异常 if the stock does something abnormal in the meantime if
5到10天的检查，还有 five or ten days of labs and there's
你知道违反了四项规定 you know four violations and it's
它正在关闭，非常低，低于50天 and it's closing on it's dead low and it's below the fifty day
二十天过去了 the twenty day and had
四个更低的低点 four lower lows yeah
你可能想要减少自己 you probably want to reduce yourself
但如果你只是正常的抽身 but if you're having just a normal pull back
只有几个百分点 it's a couple percent
你知道今天是动荡的一天 you know there was a churning day
那不应该成为你跳槽的理由 that shouldn't be a reason for you to jump ship
这是期权到期的标志 and that was options expiration too mark
所以可能折现更多 so probably discounted even more
对，这实际上是 right was that was that actually a
三倍，很迷人，是的 triple yeah quite witching yes
有时在三巫日 sometimes on the triple witching day
你会看到这些大的尖峰和体积尤其是在 you'll get all these big spikes and volume particularly in the
交易更广泛的名字也被更广泛地沿用 more widely traded names more widely followed names
这可以和粮食袭击一起解决 so that could be taken with a grain assault
好了，梅尔文问的是如何减少止损 all right melvin is asking how do you minimize stop loss
滑坡为例 slippage for example
他买了lnth he bought lnth
当它下跌的那天止损五百五十 stop loss of fifty two fifty when the day when it dropped
大约是早上53点 it was about fifty three in the morning
突然就跌到了49度 suddenly it was down the forty nine
我没有时间反应，在12或太阳损失 i didn't have time to react before taking a twelve or sun loss
首先，首先是 well first of all the first thing is
如果你不了解这些股票，你就必须掌握它们 you have to be on top of these stocks if you're not
能够在屏幕前 able to be in front of the screen
然后你可以设置 then you can set
你可以通过经纪人设定止损点 you know you can actually set stops with your broker
另一种方法是不 the other way is to not
变得非常富有，有很多钱来交易 become really wealthy and have a lot of money to trade
因为这当然会造成流动性问题 because that of course creates a liquidity problem
所以如果你做的是小额交易 so so you know if you're trading small
相对较小的位置 relatively small positions
你可以在经纪人那里设止损，这没问题 you could put stops in with your broker that's not a problem
如果你交易 if you're trading
你知道 you know
大尺寸和你的块或五万块肯定 big size and your blocks or five ten thousand sure blocks
你需要它来摆脱这些 you need it to get out of a number of those
你知道要退出一个位置你需要更多 you know to exit a position then you're gonna need to be more
你知道的最重要的事情 you know on top of things
把它当作一个全职的专业交易员 and treat it more as a full time professional trader
也许你知道设置你的警报 and maybe you know have your alert set
在它停之前，我总是设置提醒 before it hits the stop and i always have the alert set
在到站之前，或者离站很近，这样我就知道嘿 be prior to the stop or you know close to it so then i know hey
这是接近 it's getting close
然后我就准备好，如果达到那个水平我就准备好 and then i get ready i get ready if it hits that level
你知道我出局了 you know i'm out
就滑移而言 as far as slippage is concerned
下滑是生意的一部分你会有下滑 slippage is part of the business you're going to have slippage
但当它真的到来的时候，我们已经做到了 but when it really comes down to it and we've done this
一百万次，分析了滑移 a million times and analyzed slippage
你知道 you know
看一看你就知道影响有多大了 took a look at you know how much it affected
你知道表演什么的，还有你 you know the performance and so forth and you
四十年后才知道 know in forty years
滑倒真的没有发生 slippage really hasn't really done
任何事对我来说都是为了使它是否 anything to me to to make it whether
当我交易一百股的时候 when i was trading a hundred shares
或者十万股 or a hundred thousand shares
从来没有真正影响到我的问题 it has never really been a problem where it affected me
我经常滑倒的地方 where i have so much slip and so often
这是一个归结到技术上的大问题 and it's this big problem that comes down to technique and also
远离追逐 staying away from chasing
如果你在追逐股票上涨，你知道的股票 stocks you know if you're chasing stocks up
你会得到滑动视觉它会是自己创建的 you're going to get slip vision it's going to be self created
在不利的方面 and on the downside
拥有合适的流动性 having the right liquidity you know
这支股票每天交易十万股 the stock trades a hundred thousand shares a day
你将拥有五万股股票 and you're bind fifty thousand shares
你会有麻烦的你会有麻烦的所以如果 you're gonna have a problem you're gonna have a problem so if
你们大多数人都没有这个问题 most of you don't have that problem
你可能不会交易 you're probably not trading
这样的大小 that type of size
或者你不会在那个级别交易这种类型的规模 or you wouldn't trade the type of size in that level
平均音量的大小 of that type of average volume
好的，维克多在问 okay victor is asking
他第一次来mpa他很荣幸能做交易 his first time on mpa he's feeling honored to be able to trade
在我们身边 beside us
你来看看有没有办法把损失降到最低 and you on i sce is there any way to minimize the damage
一旦你看到 once you see
这个指关节很艰难，国家以前也有过损失 this knuckles are versing hard and country losses either before
触发停止 triggers the stop
还是坚持计划更好 or is it better just to stick to the plan
停止损失，接受这种情况 and stop loss and embrace this type of situation
一切都会好的 it's gonna happen well
当然，总有办法把销售损失降到最低 of course there's always a way to minimize the damage you sell
你想什么时候卖都可以 you can sell it any time you want
我的意思是你可以设定 i mean you can set
你想停什么就停什么 your stop whatever you want
这也很简单 again it's a very simple
这是一个非常简单的公式停止的紧密程度 it's a very simple formula the tight of the stop
床的时机 the bed of the timing
必须是如果你设置了一个非常紧密的停顿，这很简单吗 has to be is that simple if you're setting a super tight stop
那么股价就会从这里开始上涨 well then the stock has to go right from there
它对你不利的空间很小 and there's very little room that it can go against you
或者你会被阻止所以你会 or you're going to be stopped out so you're going to have
更多的交易，你就需要更多的交易 more trading you're gonna have to trade more
因为你会更经常被拦在外面 because you're going to be stopped out more often
因为你阻碍了交易 because you're choking off the trade
我完全可以阻止交易 i have no problem of choking off the trade
如果你想让它们变得完美 if you want to try to get them perfect
保持紧致 and stay super tight fine
但你得愿意做更多的交易 but you got to be willing to trade more
你必须愿意做功课 and you got to be willing to do the homework
以及要成为什么样的人 and the work to become
真的很伟大 really really great
在购买 at precisely buying
而且只在你比较紧的时候才买 and only buying if you're tighter
你越不愿意违背trent the stop is the less you want to ever go against the trent
除非你想 and unless you want to
追逐一只股票，因为你没有空间 chase a stock extended because you don't have the room
你没有波动的空间 you don't have the room for the volatility
当你在回调时买入股票 and when you're buying a stock coming in on a pullback
你必须做到完美，在它转身的时候把它钉住 you'd have to be perfect and nail it just as it turns around
我们很少这样做 and very seldom do we ever do that
这就是为什么我会等着股市回调 that's why i wait for even a pullback
我等待股票开始上涨 i wait for the stock to start turning up
一旦它朝我的方向移动，关键是要确保 once it's moving in my direction so the key is make sure
你是定向交易 you're directionally trading
你知道像ee这样的词 and again you know with something like is ee
你知道这 you know this
这个想法从这里进来，离得越近 this thought comes in here and the closer
它开始回到 it starts getting back to
你知道的枢轴的低处 the low of the pivot you know
它变得越不祥，其中一种方式就是规模 the more ominous it's becoming so one of the ways is the scale
你知道你有交错的停车 you know you have staggered stops
也许 maybe
一个是纯数学的，另一个是基于枢轴的 one is purely mathematical and other one is based on the pivot
另一个是基于 the other one is based on
你的最大百分比 your maximum percentage
然后你就得到了三者的混合 and then you get a blend of the three
结果可能不是8%的损失 and you might end up with instead of a full eight percent loss
你把路径 you take path
第三在两个 third at two
四岁或五岁的时候还有三分之一，八岁的时候还有三分之一 a third at four or five and a third at eight and now
你在中间的某个地方，大约4%或5% you're somewhere around the middle around four or five percent
有很多方法可以做到这一点，你知道 there's lots of ways to do this i mean you can you know
有各种不同的排列 there's all different permutations
底线是不管你做什么 the bottom line is no matter what you do
所有东西都要在钟形曲线上平均 and everything has to average over a bell curve
你的损失必须小于你的收益，对吧 your losses have to be less than your gains right
这是关键 that's the key
你不能让自己的风险太大 and you can't get yourself where your riskarone is too great
还有你可以冒险的地方 and where you can risk
接连损失的:接连损失的 having a series of losses
这将造成巨大的破坏 that will cause a big causing big damage
这意味着 so that means that
你的接触必须是循序渐进的 your exposure's got to be progressively
移进或移出 moves into or out of
确保你不会给自己惹上大麻烦 to make sure that you don't just get yourself into big trouble
马上 right off the hop
这是一个非常关键的渐进式曝光 that's that's a real key progressive exposure
是那种 is like one of the
这是管理止损风险的终极方法 ultimate things for managing risk along with the stop losses
我已经说过很多次了，但是 almost every but i've said this many times but
几乎所有的人都很擅长这个 almost all the guys that they're really well at this
他们一直都是 and they've been you know
成员或者我的学生 members or my students
你知道，几年下来，我在交易方面做得很好 you know for years and became really great at trading almost
他们都专门说你知道那件事 exclusively they all say you know the thing that really
最大的不同在于你的逐步曝光 made the big difference was your progressive exposure
经验教训和完善 lessons and perfecting
使用带止损的渐进式敞口 using progressive exposure with the stop loss
渐进暴露总是 progressive exposure is always
被认为是他们成功的关键 spoken about as a key to their success
对我来说绝对是这样 and certainly with me it absolutely is
瑞安的办公桌，如果你把你的小 ryan desk and if you trade your smaller
飞行员的位置和你的不同 pilot size positions differently than you would
一个完全尺寸的位置，直到缩放 a full size position as far as scaling out
因为一开始仓位就很小 since the position is already small to start with
不是真的，我的意思是，你知道，但是就向外扩展而言 not not really i mean you know but as far as scaling out
是的，我的意思是，如果我有四分之一的姿势 yeah i mean i might just you know if i have a quarter position
我可能只卖一个价格，或者 i might just sell it at one price or
当然你知道一个刻度到一个更大的位置 certainly you know a scale into it into a bigger position
有件事你必须小心，你知道 the thing you have to be careful of you know and
这 and this
我一直在谈论扑克 i always talk about like you know i always talk about poker
但我有很多个人的扑克故事 but i have so many personal poker stories
我以前经常去 i used to go and play in a
如果你不知道的话，我们赌1025 in a ten twenty five game for those if you don't know it
这就是的 that's the the
在钱的游戏里瞎了眼 blinds in the game in a cash game
我在常规比赛中打了10分25秒 i played in a regular game ten twenty five and also
我们打出了25比50，这是一场相当大的比赛 we played twenty five fifty which is a pretty big game
我去赌场，我会 and i go to the casinos and i would
我得列个体重清单有时这是 i have to go on a weight list sometimes this is
那时扑克很火 when poker was really hot
你不能，你知道现在 you couldn't you know nowadays
我觉得他们连个 i don't think they even have a
十美分或二十五美分的游戏，大部分赌场 ten quarter or twenty five fifty game most of the casinos
但你会有这份体重表，在你等待的时候 but you'd have this weight list and while you were waiting
你知道你说他们会说 you know you say they say well
你想，你想玩5 10你想玩1 2 you want you wanna play the five ten you wanna play the one two
然后我去玩一个一二的游戏，在一盘里输了更多的钱 and i go play a one two game and lose more money in the one
2局还是5局10，我想要20 two game or the five ten that i wanted the twenty
然后在2550年 then i would in the 2550
因为2550年的 because of 2550
你知道我知道这很危险 you know i knew there was some serious risk there
而且我真的可以 and i could really take a big
一个巨大的损失，所以我 a big loss so i was
超级指的是最好的游戏超级精确 super about something like best game super you know precise
做出了伟大的决定 made great decisions the one two
5美元10美元，我只是随便撒点钱 the five ten i'm just throwing money and you know like around
非常疯狂，因为这是用来娱乐的钱 like crazy because it's fun money
不多，在你知道之前 it's not much and before you know
我累积了一个更大的 it i've racked up a bigger
比我在更大的游戏中输得更惨 loss than i would have in the in the bigger game
这是你需要注意的小的东西 that's the thing you have to be careful with the smaller
开始时的姿势 positions if you start
你想对一切一视同仁 you want to treat everything the same
就像我去看比赛一样 like i would go to games and play
有一个我玩了很多年的本地游戏，它是 there's a local game that i played for many years and it was a
2块5的游戏，赌注很小 two five game and you know pretty small stakes
每个人的50万美元都在桌子上 each person of five hundred thousand bucks on the table
我用这一小笔钱玩游戏，然后人们就走了 and i be playing with this small amount of money and people go
伙计，来吧，让你知道 man come on get you know
放松点，扔个杯子进去，你是个多面手 loosen up throw some mug in there you're a multi
看在上帝的份上，百万富翁 millionaire for god's sakes
你太小气了，不 you're so cheap no
这就是我要遵守的纪律 that's my discipline i'm going to
玩那一小笔钱 play that small amount of money
就像我要花更多的钱一样 just like i'm going to play the larger amount of money
因为这是什么意思 because what's the sense
打破我的纪律 in breaking my discipline
这就是我练习的目的，把我的纪律放下去 that's the whole idea is to practice and get my discipline down
对于较小的游戏，你可以在较大的游戏中使用这种方法 with the smaller game so then you've got that for the larger
一场充满情感压力的比赛 a game where the emotional pressure is on
这就是你需要自律的地方 that's where you need to get that discipline
所以不要 so don't
永远不要打破纪律 ever break that discipline under
任何情况都是我的主要 any circumstances that would be my main
评论你的评论 comment for your comment
再加上一点，用来标记人 just to add to that to mark people
对交易账户做同样的事情吗 do the same thing with trading accounts
他们认为好 they think well
我只有二万五千美元的账户 i've only got a twenty five thousand dollar account
所以我得冒超级大的风险 so i've got to be super risky
这是准确的 that is the exact
与你所想的绝对相反 opposite of how you want to think about absolute
完全相反的 exact opposite
你知道你想要建设 you know you want to build
你想建立一个两万五千美元的账户 you want to build that twenty five thousand dollar account
会变成十万吗 is it gonna turn into a hundred thousand
或者50万，或者1000万的账户 or a half a million or a ten million dollar account
如果你不结合它，在成功的基础上建立 if you don't compound it and build under success
然后建立这个账户 and and build that account
你只要进去 you just go in there
尽情狂欢，尽情狂欢，好吧，你可以的 hog wild and blow it well now okay you can
你可以整天在账户上挥霍两万五千美元 you can blow twenty five thousand dollar accounts all day and
损失会更大，所以没错 it racks up a bigger loss so yeah absolutely
那时我有一个小账户 that's when i had a small account
我就像 i was just as
就像我现在一样，我是一个坚持冒险的人 a stickler for risk as i am today
我也可以验证扑克游戏的故事 i can validate the poker story as well
这是正确的 that's right
好吧，让我们看看塔索在问 all right let's see tasso is asking
去年秋天刚开始交易 new to trading from last fall
但我已经上了MTP课程，学了很多 but i've already taken the mtp class and learning tons
所以一般不要看10美元以下的股票 so don't generally look at stocks under ten dollars
但我记得 but i remember
马克里奇提到，有时股票 mark richie mentioned that sometimes stocks
敲自己的鼓 beat to their own drum
他有时就是无法忽视 and he sometimes just cannot ignore
在某些情况下更便宜 certain situations with cheaper stucks
他注意到了维克托·黄 he notice victor yellow
昨天放映的时候拍的是绿色罗密欧，让我很兴奋 green romeo yesterday during his screenings and it became a high
权力玩 power play
非常快，然后在周五穿了一件超级紧身的衣服 incredibly quickly and then had a super tight clothes on friday
从50天开始延长了很多 it is extended tremendously from the fifty day
根据昨天的情况来看，情况不太好 based on how it looked yesterday not doing well
今天你会考虑这只股票吗 today would this be a stock you would consider
今天早上，即使从50天延长了 for this morning even though it was extended from the fifty day
第一个 the first
你肯定不是军人，也不是航空兵 thing you were definitely not in the military or in aviation
你刚才念字母的样子 the way you just called out those letters
但是没关系 but that's okay
是维克托黄吗? victor yellow was it
绿色罗密欧，好吧，罗密欧很好 green romeo okay romeo was good
所以 so
现在就低价品牌而言 now as far as the low price names are concerned
我让你来标记答案 i'll let you mark answer
这个问题具体不过是这个 the question specifically but this
看起来这里的情况还不错 looks great as far as this run up here
这绝对是 this is definitely
强势的候选人 a power play candidate
而且价格很低 and it's for you know again low price
关于低价股票，我想说的是 what i just want to say about low price stocks is that
就我个人而言，我只是要求他们 personally i just require them to be
真的很完美 really perfect
你知道的，我真的很想要一头灰色的头发，用来做权谋 you know i really want a gray i use on a power play
或者是ipo基础 or an ipo base
它确实有很大的潜力 something that it really has a lot of potential
它真的来自于 and it's really coming out of a
非常完美的价格模式 pretty perfect price pattern
对我来说真正的关键是我真的变得 that's the real key for me is that i really become
一个超级顽固的人 a super stickler
对于设置和入口点，只要低价即可 for the setup and the entry point as far as the low price
但是我们继续，马克，我会让你好好回答这个问题 but we'll go ahead mark i'll let you answer the question well
我想他是在问，这可能是今天的圣经 i think he was asking it was potentially bible today
这当然 which of course
肯定 would be absolutely
不是，它只是今晚没有足够的时间 not it just doesn't have enough time in this night
你知道的 where you know again
如果你参加过estra trader项目，请阅读mark的书 read mark's book if you've gone an estra trader program
你会知道这是 you would know this is
你至少需要两周的时间 you need at least two weeks you know
我还没有你知道的十二天，你知道的 i haven't you know ten twelve days you know yeah
一千零一十二天 ten twelve days
一般来说我找到的都是偶数 generally i've found even
一周半以内的都行 anything under a week and a half
它太短了，你知道第LNTH个例子 it's just too short you know the lnth example
我们也讨论过 we talked about that was also
只是有点短，这就是问题所在，对吧 it's just a little too short that was the problem problem right
确切地说，你知道，也知道怎么做 exactly you know and how
在圈套里你能骗多少钱 how much can you cheat you know on a setup
在某一点，没有主元了 right at some point there's no pivot at all anymore so
但这是我的雷达它现在有能量了 but this is on my radar to it it has the power now do
我们得到了一个枢轴 we get a pivot
看到LNT h了吗 yeah see the lnt h here
这是我指出的 and this is something i pointed out
当当这里爆发的时候 when when it was breaking out here
是一二三 it was one two three
四五六级 four five six of
八天，记得我说过是八天 eight days remember i pointed this out i said it's eight days
它 it
我不会再说最后一件事然后我们就结束了 i'm not just say one last thing and we're gonna wrap it up here
但是一月会影响你们中的一些人 but the january effect those of you
如果你不知道一月效应是什么，你可以查一下 if you don't know what the january effect is you can look it up
但以前有个地方是12月 but there used to be where you know in december
他们会说 they would say
一月效应就是你所知道的市场有一定影响的地方 the january effect is where the market you know does a certain
一月的事情，然后起飞，然后 thing in january and takes off and then
人们开始期待它 people started anticipating it
他们说12月就会发生 and it would happen in december they say well
这是人们对一月效应的预期，当然 it's people anticipating the january effect and then of course
每个人都是预判者预判者 everybody anticipators anticipated the anticipators and it
从11月开始 started happening in november
在你知道六月他们在谈论什么之前 from before you know what they're talking about in june
最后只剩下 and then eventually goes only
1月份又开始了 back and starts happening in january again
正如马克所说 so you know as mark just said
这是一个滑坡，我的意思是你必须要划清界限 it's a slippery slope i mean you got to draw the line
夏天，你必须划清界限，即使还好 summer you've got to draw the line even if okay well
起飞后，4天左右移动良好 l and th takes off and four days moving sideways well
有些产品会在一天内起飞，但你有 there's ones that are going to take off in one day but you have
如果你想 over a bell curve if you were to
反复交易这些东西 trade these over and over
这将是胜利之手吗 would it be a winning hand
如果我这么做，你会赢吗 would it be a winning hand if i did this
如果我这么做，我有一百次机会赢 a hundred times in my a winner if i did this
一千次，但为什么要来一个赢家 a thousand times but why come on a winner
这才是真正的问题 that's the real question yeah
在这个例子中添加一些东西 just to add something to this example
因为这是 because this is something
我认为 i think
你之前说不要忽略它，我会说 you said earlier don't take it off your radar and i would say
绝对不要忽略它 absolutely don't take it off your radar
但在这里画一个你想看到的低作弊 but draw in a low cheat here what you want to see
我想如果你看看两天前的下降 and i think if you look at that decline two days ago
它把所有的周末都打扫干净了 it cleaned out all the weekends
所以你知道 yeah so you know
你知道这里没有手弱的人 you know there's no weak hands here well sure
但是给马克的指针提示 but tip mark's pointer
有时候你会被一个名字束缚住 there's sometimes you get stacked on a name and
每个新手都很顺利 every novice then goes well
那只股票不喜欢我，我不会再交易了，对吧 that stock doesn't like me i'm not gonna trade it again right
或者他们认为这是针对个人的，这太愚蠢了 or every they think they take it personal which is so stupid
它可以很容易地成为一个艰难的跨界 it could very easily be a hardway crossover too where it could
它可以 it could
它出来 it comes out
把所有人都击倒，现在又回来了 knocks everybody out and now just turns right back up
几天后，这里就变成了新的高地 and in a couple days bang it's a new high ground
我们称之为弹弓效应 and we'll be called the slingshot effect
你知道这些更难 and you know those are harder to
那些更难玩 those are harder to play
但这是另一件你需要注意的事情 but that's another thing you want to look out for
但我是说那个进化者你 but i was saying that that breakout that you
你强调了 that you highlighted
每个在明显的地方停下的人现在都已经 everybody who put their stop at the obvious spot has now been
抖出来，但是哦 shaken out but oh
是啊，还没有太紧绷 yeah it hasn't pulled in too much yet
大多数人甚至不知道什么是真正的失败 most people don't even know what a proper failure
重置或低作弊看起来是这样，然后他们会忽略它 reset or low cheat looks like so then they ignore it
这通常是更好的设置 and that's often the better setup
是的，关键是要回到最基本的 right and the key is to go back to the basics
测量它，测量移动 measure it measure the move
他们是怎么看待这种下降的呢 what does the klein bin they look at the decline here
我们从上到下测量 we measure it from top to this low right here
是17% it's 17 percent
它仍然有空间可以打破那些低谷 it's still got room this could actually undercut those lows
脱落 come off
再加上3%仍然在20%以内 another three percent you're still within that twenty percent
所以, and so and
你还 you're still
你现在在完美的时间框架里，你正在进入 you're in perfect timeframe now now you're coming into
三周，四周，你们知道 three weeks four weeks this is actually you know
现在越来越熟了 ripening it's getting riper right now
是啊，我提起这件事的原因，马库斯 yeah the reason i brought it up marcus
因为航行者号 because of the voyager one that
维，那只是，不，还差得远呢，我是这么说的 vy that's just no it's not even close i'm saying this
其中一个更让我兴奋 one is actually more exciting to me
因为有两三天的路程 because it's two or three days away
也许你知道 from maybe you know
真的有 really having something
另一个现在至少需要一个星期 the other one just needs at least a week right now
我们在这里看周刊 we look at the weekly here
你可以看到这是一个每周一次的大型户外酒吧 you can see it's a big outside weekly bar here
所以这有点不祥，你可能需要 so it's a little bit ominous here and you might need
就像马克说的，低作弊设置 as mark said some type of maybe you know low cheat setting up
我们可能需要某种中枢发展 we may need some type of pivot development
但肯定还在名单上 but certainly still on on the list
我们得结束了 we gotta wrap it up
我们走了大约一小时十五分钟 we go and went about an hour and fifteen minutes here
我想这是I so i think this is i
我想我们已经讲了很多，这是一个伟大的部分 think we covered a lot here and this was a great section with a
很多信息 lot of information
有很多不同的角度 a lot of different angles so
希望你们 hope you guys
一如既往地喜欢它，并有很好的学习经验 enjoyed it and had a good experience for learning as always
我们会尽可能多地回答问题 we try to get through as many questions as we can
伙计们，留着你们没得到的问题吧 guys but keep the questions that you did not get
回答今天 answered today
下周 for next week
我们会再试一次的 we'll try again then any
要发送到标记的符号 symbols that you do want to send to mark
平台上有dropbox的标志 there is the symbol dropbox on the platform
这样你就可以 that allows you to
直接提交给 submit those directly to
马克的电脑 mark's computer
他也有机会看这些吗 where he gets the chance to look at those as well
我们会在这里张贴回放 and we will have the replay posted here momentarily
在此之前，请继续关注实时警报 until then stay tuned into the live stream for real time alerts
在这周剩下的时间里 throughout the remainder of the week
我们将回到它的监控平台进行更新 and we'll get back at its monitor the platform for updates
人好了 guys all right
谢谢你马克 thank you mark
谢谢你，鲍勃，再见 thank you bob see you guys later bye bye