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Mariposa Lola welcome to bing cuffs
headquarters and our last video in cold
war going hot series it is 1989 and war
breaks out between NATO pact and Warsaw
Pact naval and aerial balance of power
were discussed in previous videos check
them out with no warning or preparation
time the warring sides would pour fresh
forces into Germany Warsaw Pact new NATO
had a stronger economy and greater
population but NATO had less units
stationed in Europe it meant Soviets
needed to succeed before us
reinforcements come NATO had a token
force in West Berlin it was surrounded
and would be dealt with within a day
overall disposition of forces between
two Germany's in 1989 favored the Warsaw
Pact NATO's main self-sufficient unit
was the brigade while Warsaw Pact was
the division NATO units were in standard
in size each country had own
organization most of the forces into
Germany's were alert ready within a day
German territorial army and Soviet
category B units required a few more
days previous video showed solid edge in
ballistic missiles and air defenses they
would initially negate NATO air power
letting Soviet tank and artillery
advantage to be fully utilized
especially the artillery edge would
suppress NATO frontline forces Warsaw
Pact would start pushing into Germany
while neutral Austria is too important
geographically for either side NATO
would seize the opportunity to quickly
include Italian forces while Soviets
would use Austria to protect its flank
Austrian army was capable of protecting
most of its country for days or more
especially around Vienna and the Alps
Yugoslavia would likely be left alone
having a stronger military and not
really being in the way Italian army
would eventually secure a corridor
even if Austria actively defends but
forces in Hungary would intervene
initially Romania and Bulgaria would be
on their own soviets had no troops there
Greece and Turkey would be in position
to push north
over half of Turkish army was stationed
in the tiny region of European Turkey
Bulgaria would likely get cut in half
quickly until NATO reaches Balkan
Mountains with Soviet and Romanian
reinforcements further advance would be
hard in the long run there might even be
a counter-attack with help from Soviet
troops from Odessa combination of
mountains and flat ground near the coast
would provide for some interesting
battles more fronts would open turkey
would be tasked to protect the carcass
approach Soviets were on a defensive
stance there due to tough mountainous
terrain large offensives for either side
would be unlikely Norway would also see
combat NATO regarded it as roadway to
Murmansk threatening Soviet naval might
Soviets hoped for securing points along
Norwegian coast hoping project naval
power into Atlantic Soviets didn't have
many units up north suggesting a
defensive stance even Leningrad had just
enough forces to monitor Finland Finland
and Sweden are modelled neutral here for
a reason
they had decent armies and rough terrain
meant it would be hardly worth attacking
them both sides would quickly reinforce
Norwegian front Soviet airborne corps
was bigger with heavier weapons an
average perhaps small NATO push until
Soviets sent reinforcements could happen
so it amphibious landings could be a
countermeasure realistically mountains
and snow would act as a wall with Norway
seeing very little front movement during
most of the war reservists soldiers
would be a huge part of the war
mobilizing and training them usually
took from a week to half a year but
European countries closest to the front
line traded off some training for much
quicker deployment NATO reservists
trained up to one week per year Warsaw
Pact basically did not train their
reservists and so they had to train for
a longer period upon mobilization Soviet
Union had
special reservists category category C
units a mix of reservists and active
army troops the active troops were the
core that maintained equipment and
helped train the reservists the Pacific
front would be quiet at first Japan all
taking US side in these scenarios had a
defensive policy it was not prepared to
handle large-scale offensive operations
the coral islands however would be
attacked swiftly Japan would try to
retake them from the Soviets with help
of the US Marine Corps but any serious
action beyond the coral islands would
take weeks after US boxes in Soviet
fleet and takes control of the Pacific
so it Far East region had many troops
stationed mostly because of the Chinese
threat at the same time those troops
would reinforce Vladivostok u.s. lacked
numbers for multiple Pacific France but
Soviets would be forced to spread their
troops over a larger area not knowing
where US might strike but let's get back
to Europe
within days troops from other countries
would start arriving in numbers Rapid
Reaction and airborne units would be
used by both sides especially for
establishing bridgeheads rivers in
Germany would slow down Soviets quite a
bit but the seventh day NATO would
narrow down the troop numbers gap to
perform both attacks and counter-attacks
one needs to know where the enemy is
both sides use ample recon assets US had
a few semi-permanent satellites with
digital cameras Soviets relied on
short-lived satellites with film cameras
recon was also performed by tactical
aircraft both sides were evenly matched
in numbers NATO planes had better
sensors and endurance Warsaw Pact
severely lag in scouting helicopters
though both belligerents employed
conscripts in large numbers soviets
required long service obligations to
keep up their numbers the service time
doesn't equal more training Soviet
training was simpler accentuating
mobilization repetitive drills and rigid
chain of command
NATO armies spent more resources and
action
war exercises there would be a parity in
training levels at first as more of the
US and British forces join in NATO would
enjoy somewhat better trained forces
attacker usually needs more troops to
succeed in attack which warsaw pact had
but was a bit behind in technology and
recon it's offensive formations would be
easier to track going through numerous
urban centres and forests in Germany
even in this nuke free scenario would be
quite slow historical examples show
defend the territory is seldomly quickly
conquered small units may temporarily
advance a lot but average base of front
movement will be sluggish with factors
of our scenario in mind one can
extrapolate the following base of
advance tens of kilometers the first day
then slow down as troop ratio evens out
and Soviets move out of their prepared
initial positions first week might see a
dozen kilometers per day then the pace
would fall further as ever longer
logistics routes get exposed to counter
strikes Soviets had less logistics
personnel in their units than NATO they
simply did not believe most of their
frontline units could survive for long
as one unit would get decimated another
one would hop in its place defender
could count on greater percentage of
forces at the front the local numerical
difference would thus be smaller than
the absolute numbers suggest especially
with NATO's edge and sensors and air
mobility fleet which would help
redistribute and concentrate NATO troops
and logistics NATO's edge in heavy lift
platforms would mostly be spent in
bringing in US reinforcements by 15th
day further enforcement's would arrive
additional US light infantry brigades
and so-called reforge a brigade
annual reforge er exercises tested how
quickly could US troops reach Germany
units would get manned and troops would
fly over the Atlantic pre-positioned
stocks of their hardware would be
waiting for them in Benelux and Germany
some equipment would be transported by
air and sea three additional brigades
would come
HEVC lifts assets soviets would bring
their forces from Ukraine Belarus Moscow
and other areas more and more reservists
would get deployed the size of Germany
would be an issue compared to the number
of troops it is quite small and the
firepower present would be much greater
with longer reach of sensors and weapons
there would not be room for efficient
use of all of those troops road
congestion would be a serious issue
the attacker faces even bigger problems
moving supplies for such forces over the
roads and units need to rest as well by
30th day of the war Western Europe front
would get flooded by troops US and
Canada would use cargo ships bringing in
soldiers all of the European armies
would have reached the front soviets
would be bringing rest of their active
army units from asian regions in the
real world soviets might keep most of
those to keep China in check in this
scenario half of the Soviet troops will
be bound for Europe Atlantic Ocean would
mean us would be behind Soviet Union in
reinforcements
but Soviets had their issues the rail
infrastructure was decent up until
Central Asia central and eastern regions
suffered from low capacity slowing down
troop influx
NATO's issue would be greater reliance
on reservists compared to Warsaw Pact it
would blunt their overall training
advantage and sizable conquered part of
West Germany could not be fully
mobilized such reservists units are
better suited for defensive warfare as
their lack experience in large-scale
combined operations Soviet tank numbers
will be even higher though as NATO
troops reinforced in Germany had less
tanks than once initially present
Soviets featured tanks in almost every
unit exploiting those higher tank
numbers would not be easy NATO had edged
in guided anti-tank missile platforms it
also used more attack helicopters and
using them in counter attacks would mean
less casualties compared to
yet being ambushed over NATO territory
NATO's ground-based anti-tank platforms
were even greater in numbers and held
some technological edge as well
theoretical tank inventory totals
benefited worse impact by a large margin
thanks to Soviet Union u.s. had hard
NATO tank numbers or Soviet Union at 80%
of Warsaw Pact numbers tanks were
roughly comparable in quality except for
the newest vehicles from 1980s which
were low in numbers Soviets used
reactive Armour equalling NATO armor
protection penetration was roughly
comparable while so its sensors and
computers lagged behind they were more
vulnerable in night fighting and
long-range battles Warsaw Pact had more
infantry fighting vehicles as it
preferred to field more firepower its
vehicles were less protected being
lighter as most of them had amphibious
capability so they could deal with
rivers over Europe NATO vehicles would
have had a harder time crossing rivers
offensively but is they artillery
where NATO was really outgunned
artillery would suppress the defenders
so tanks could fight through enabling
Soviets to move the front line Warsaw
Pact had many more towed guns and
multiple rocket launchers NATO relied
more on battalion level fire support and
mortars artilleries power is harder to
concentrate when advancing as enemy air
power prevents the guns from being as
close to the front as they could be all
the figures so far are deployable totals
not actual frontline figures they don't
account for lost equipment a good
casualty ratio requires attacker to have
an upper hand in many factors Soviet
historical loss ratios provide a rough
comparison baseline as world war ii went
on soviets had even more troops better
training and air superiority
extrapolation to 1989 with balance of
power shown need for speedy advance and
lack of soviet air superiority suggests
higher losses for Warsaw Pact
at all those points up to day 30 actual
numbers of troops left in the front
would differ from the theoretical total
available by day 60 further mass influx
of reserve formations would be added to
the mix US National Guard and Soviet
category C units would make up the brunt
of reserves after casualties Soviets
would have only a few percent more
troops similar number of soldiers and
River Rhine to cross would mean European
front would come to a standstill other
fronts would see little movement
Norwegian Balkans and caucus fronts
would end in a stalemate due to similar
troop numbers and rough terrain Soviets
Pacific coastline would be at first
impenetrable even after US Navy takes
control of the ocean US could only hope
for landings in remote areas all fronts
would turn into Wars of attrition NATO
would slowly mobilize more troops than
Warsaw Pact Soviets could use their
greater firepower while defending and
both sides air forces would be decimated
and ineffective within half a year
NATO might amass enough troops to move
into Germany casualties will be counted
in millions by that point NATO countries
higher population would help it
strategically but troop numbers at the
front would be similar except for the
Pacific where us would immensely amass
enough forces for landings more than
Soviets could keep for defense at
multiple locations costly coastal
battles would decimate u.s. Navy but
Kamchatka might eventually be taken
short term war production was on Soviet
side they produced more stuff in 1989
but in total war economy NATO countries
would out produce them within two or
three years ammunition stocks were
roughly appropriate for both sides but
for NATO's pushed back into Germany more
would be needed that's because NATO had
enough ammo for initial half-a-year
munitions production could be expanded
in such time frame but tank and plane
for
reduction would take a year or two NATO
country's economy was bigger and better
positioned for a long-term war if a
ceasefire was somehow established after
a year Warsaw Pact was had fared a bit
better than NATO it would have suffered
more casualties lost almost all of its
Air Force and most of its Navy but it
would have gained most of Germany
Denmark and Austria NATO would have
retained half of its Navy and gained a
part of Bulgaria while locking in
Soviets in the Pacific in coming years
NATO would push back into Germany and
Romania and open new fronts as shown
previously more of the Soviet Pacific
coast would be threatened forcing
Soviets to redistribute their forces it
would all come at the cost of greater
casualties and going into European
Soviet Union would have been unlikely
still it would have amounted to some
sort of victory
keep in mind 1980s were period when
Soviets were weakest had cold war went
hot in earlier decades Warsaw Pact might
have reached Paris or outright won
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