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我知道了些什么， What do I know
会驱使我这样一个 that would cause me,
沉默寡言、来自中西部的科学家 a reticent, Midwestern scientist,
到白宫门前去抗议 to get myself arrested
而被捕？ in front of the White House protesting?
而你又会怎样做 And what would you do
如果你知道我所知道的？ if you knew what I know?
我们从我的成长历程讲起。 Let's start with how I got to this point.
我很幸运。 I was lucky to grow up
在我成长的那个年代， at a time when it was not difficult
一个佃农的孩子 for the child of a tenant farmer
想上州立大学还不那么难。 to make his way to the state university.
我还不是一般得幸运。 And I was really lucky
我大学去了爱荷华州立大学。 to go to the University of Iowa
在那里，我得到了James Van Allen教授的悉心指教。 where I could study under Professor James Van Allen
Van Allen教授为美国最早的卫星 who built instruments
制造仪器。 for the first U.S. satellites.
教授告诉我， Professor Van Allen told me
对金星的观察显示， about observations of Venus,
金星上有强烈的微波辐射。 that there was intense microwave radiation.
这是表明金星上有电离层， Did it mean that Venus had an ionosphere?
还是说金星上非常热？ Or was Venus extremely hot?
经苏联的金星航天器肯定， The right answer,
正确的答案是， confirmed by the Soviet Venera spacecraft,
金星上非常热—— was that Venus was very hot --
温度高达900华氏度。 900 degrees Fahrenheit.
因为金星上空有一层厚厚的二氧化碳气层， And it was kept hot
这个高温得以一直保持。 by a thick carbon dioxide atmosphere.
我非常幸运地加入了国家航空航天局， I was fortunate to join NASA
并成功地提出了一项 and successfully propose
飞往金星的实验。 an experiment to fly to Venus.
我们的仪器拍摄到这张照片。 Our instrument took this image
照片上正是金星的面纱。 of the veil of Venus,
这层面纱实际上是 which turned out to be
一层含硫酸的雾。 a smog of sulfuric acid.
但就在我们制造仪器期间， But while our instrument was being built,
我参与 I became involved in calculations
计算地球上的 of the greenhouse effect
温室效应， here on Earth,
因为我们意识到 because we realized
我们的大气层成分正在发生变化。 that our atmospheric composition was changing.
最终，我辞去了 Eventually, I resigned
我们金星实验组 as principal investigator
首席调查员的职务， on our Venus experiment
因为一颗就在我们眼前变化的行星 because a planet changing before our eyes
要更有趣，也更重要。 is more interesting and important.
它的变化会影响到全人类。 Its changes will affect all of humanity.
一个世纪来， The greenhouse effect had been well understood
人类已充分地了解了温室效应。 for more than a century.
英国物理学家John Tyndall British physicist John Tyndall,
在19世纪50年代时 in the 1850's,
对红外辐射 made laboratory measurements
也就是热辐射 of the infrared radiation,
进行了实验测量。 which is heat.
他向我们展示，二氧化碳等气体吸收热， And he showed that gasses such as CO2 absorb heat,
就像是一层毯子， thus acting like a blanket
给地球的表面加温。 warming Earth's surface.
我和其他科学家 I worked with other scientists
一起分析地球的气候变化。 to analyze Earth climate observations.
在1981年， In 1981,
我们在《科学》杂志上发表了一篇论文， we published an article in Science magazine
我们的结论是， concluding that observed warming
在上个世纪， of 0.4 degrees Celsius
地球的温度提升了0.4摄氏度， in the prior century
这和更多的二氧化碳 was consistent with the greenhouse effect
带来温室效应是相符的。 of increasing CO2.
地球很有可能会在20世纪80年代变暖， That Earth would likely warm in the 1980's,
到20世纪末， and warming would exceed
地球变暖的严重程度将超过 the noise level of random weather
随机天气带来的噪音干扰。 by the end of the century.
我们还提出到21世纪 We also said that the 21st century
地球的气候区将发生变化， would see shifting climate zones,
北美和亚洲会 creation of drought-prone regions
出现易旱区； in North America and Asia,
冰盖将融化，海平面将上升， erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels
传说中的西北通道将打开。 and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.
从我们发表论文起， All of these impacts
所有的这些影响都已经发生了， have since either happened
或正在发生。 or are now well under way.
我们那篇论文上了《纽约时报》的头版， That paper was reported on the front page of the New York Times
在20世纪80年代， and led to me testifying to Congress
我得以向国会证明我的发现。 in the 1980's,
在陈述中，我强调 testimony in which I emphasized
全球变暖会加剧地球水循环的 that global warming increases both extremes
两个极端。 of the Earth's water cycle.
一方面，变暖会直接 Heatwaves and droughts on one hand,
加剧热浪和干旱， directly from the warming,
但同时，因为一个更暖的大气层 but also, because a warmer atmosphere
会保存更多的水汽 holds more water vapor
和其潜在能量， with its latent energy,
降雨活动也将变得 rainfall will become
更为极端。 in more extreme events.
风暴会变得更强，洪水会变得更猛烈。 There will be stronger storms and greater flooding.
全球变暖像是个套圈游戏， Global warming hoopla
我在上面花的时间越来越多， became time-consuming
都没心思做科研了—— and distracted me from doing science --
其中一个原因是我之前抱怨说 partly because I had complained
白宫修改了我的证词。 that the White House altered my testimony.
于是我决定回归到 So I decided to go back
只做科研， to strictly doing science
把这些跟人沟通的活儿都留给别人。 and leave the communication to others.
15年后， By 15 years later,
全球变暖的证据越来越明显。 evidence of global warming was much stronger.
我们在1981的那篇论文里提到的大多数东西 Most of the things mentioned in our 1981 paper
都变成了事实。 were facts.
我很荣幸地两次 I had the privilege to speak twice
在总统的气候专案组前演讲。 to the president's climate task force.
但是能源政策的重点依旧是 But energy policies continued to focus
找到更多的化石燃料。 on finding more fossil fuels.
那时我已经有一个孙子和一个孙女， By then we had two grandchildren,
Sophie和Connor。 Sophie and Connor.
我决定 I decided
我不希望他们在将来说， that I did not want them in the future
“爷爷知道发生了些什么， to say, "Opa understood what was happening,
但他没有告诉大家。“ but he didn't make it clear."
于是我决定做场公众演讲， So I decided to give a public talk
批评政府没有一项合适的能源政策。 criticizing the lack of an appropriate energy policy.
2004年我在爱荷华大学做了演讲， I gave the talk at the University of Iowa in 2004
2005年我在 and at the 2005 meeting
美国地球物理联盟的会议演讲。 of the American Geophysical Union.
因为这些演讲， This led to calls
从白宫到国家航空航天局总局都纷纷给我打电话， from the White House to NASA headquarters
告诉我如果我没有得到 and I was told that I could not give any talks or speak with the media
航空航天局总局的明确批准， without prior explicit approval
我就不能做演讲或者联系媒体。 by NASA headquarters.
在我告诉《纽约时报》 After I informed the New York Times
我言论受到限制后， about these restrictions,
国家航空航天局取消了对我的审查。 NASA was forced to end the censorship.
但这是造成了其他后果。 But there were consequences.
之后我一直在用 I had been using the first line
国家航空航天局的任务声明的第一句话， of the NASA mission statement,
“为了了解和保护我们的地球家园”， "To understand and protect the home planet,"
来给我的演讲作个幌子。 to justify my talks.
很快航空航天局的任务声明的第一句话 Soon the first line of the mission statement
就被删除了，以后也不会再出现了。 was deleted, never to appear again.
在之后的几年里， Over the next few years
我对宣传 I was drawn more and more
改变能源政策的紧急性 into trying to communicate the urgency
越来越认真， of a change in energy policies,
同时我还在研究气候变化物理。 while still researching the physics of climate change.
我来讲一下物理研究得出的最重要的结论。 Let me describe the most important conclusion from the physics --
首先，从地球能量平衡角度； first, from Earth's energy balance
其次，从地球气候历史角度。 and, second, from Earth's climate history.
向空气中排入二氧化碳 Adding CO2 to the air
就像是在床上又加了床毯子。 is like throwing another blanket on the bed.
它减少从地球散向宇宙的热辐射， It reduces Earth's heat radiation to space,
造成暂时性的能量不平衡。 so there's a temporary energy imbalance.
进入地球的能量 More energy is coming in
比离开地球的能量多， than going out,
直到地球继续升温 until Earth warms up enough
再次向太空辐射出 to again radiate to space
它从太阳吸收到的同样多的能量。 as much energy as it absorbs from the Sun.
这其中的关键量 So the key quantity
是地球的能量不平衡。 is Earth's energy imbalance.
进入地球的能量 Is there more energy coming in
是否比离开地球的多？ than going out?
如果是的，更严重的变暖正在萌生。 If so, more warming is in the pipeline.
地球会继续升温，虽然温室气体没有增多。 It will occur without adding any more greenhouse gasses.
现在， Now finally,
通过测量地球热储层中的热量， we can measure Earth's energy imbalance precisely
我们能精确地 by measuring the heat content
测量出地球的能源不平衡。 in Earth's heat reservoirs.
最大的热储层，海洋，也曾是被测量得最不精确的， The biggest reservoir, the ocean, was the least well measured,
直到3000多个Argo浮标 until more than 3,000 Argo floats
被分散到海洋各地。 were distributed around the world's ocean.
这些浮标显示 These floats reveal
海洋的上半层 that the upper half of the ocean
正在飞快地吸收热量。 is gaining heat at a substantial rate.
深洋也在吸收热量，虽然速度要慢一些， The deep ocean is also gaining heat at a smaller rate,
吸收的热量不断进到 and energy is going
地球上的融冰中。 into the net melting of ice all around the planet.
陆地到十米深的地方， And the land, to depths of tens of meters,
也在升温。 is also warming.
现在的总能量不平衡 The total energy imbalance now
大概有每平方米0.6瓦。 is about six-tenths of a watt per square meter.
这听起来好像不是很多， That may not sound like much,
但把全世界的都加起来，这个数字就大得惊人。 but when added up over the whole world, it's enormous.
它大概比所有人类用能量的 It's about 20 times greater
多出20倍。 than the rate of energy use by all of humanity.
它等同于一年365天 It's equivalent to exploding
每天炸掉40万个 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day
广岛原子弹。 365 days per year.
地球每天都在吸收 That's how much extra energy
这样多的额外能量。 Earth is gaining each day.
这个不平衡意味着 This imbalance,
如果我们想要稳定气候的话， if we want to stabilize climate,
我们就必须降低二氧化碳浓度， means that we must reduce CO2
从391ppm，即百万分之三百九十一， from 391 ppm, parts per million,
降回到350ppm。 back to 350 ppm.
如果我们想重建能量平衡，阻止地球变得更暖， That is the change needed to restore energy balance
我们就必须做这样的改变。 and prevent further warming.
否认气候变化的人说， Climate change deniers argue
太阳是地球气候变化的主要原因。 that the Sun is the main cause of climate change.
但是我们测量到的能量不平衡发生在 But the measured energy imbalance occurred
自人类记录以来太阳活动最弱时期， during the deepest solar minimum in the record,
这期间太阳到达地球的能量是最少的。 when the Sun's energy reaching Earth was least.
然而，地球收到的能量还是比散发的多。 Yet, there was more energy coming in than going out.
这表明太阳辐射对气候的影响 This shows that the effect of the Sun's variations on climate
已经被增加的温室气体减弱， is overwhelmed by the increasing greenhouse gasses,
这些气体主要来自化石燃料的燃烧。 mainly from burning fossil fuels.
现在想想地球的气候史。 Now consider Earth's climate history.
这些全球温度的曲线， These curves for global temperature,
大气层二氧化碳和海平面的曲线， atmospheric CO2 and sea level
是通过测量海洋芯、南极冰芯、 were derived from ocean cores and Antarctic ice cores,
和海洋沉淀物和雪花得到的。 from ocean sediments and snowflakes
80多万年来， that piled up year after year
这些沉淀物和雪花不断积累， over 800,000 years
最后形成了一个2英里厚的冰盖。 forming a two-mile thick ice sheet.
大家都可以看到，温度、二氧化碳和海平面之间 As you see, there's a high correlation
有着极大的关联。 between temperature, CO2 and sea level.
仔细的研究显示 Careful examination shows
气温变化 that the temperature changes
会引发几世纪后的 slightly lead the CO2 changes
二氧化碳变化。 by a few centuries.
否定气候变化的人喜欢用这个事实 Climate change deniers like to use this fact
来迷惑和愚弄大众。 to confuse and trick the public
他们会说：“看，是温度引起了二氧化碳变化， by saying, "Look, the temperature causes CO2 to change,
而不是二氧化碳引起温度变化。” not vice versa."
但是这正是 But that lag
我们所预期的。 is exactly what is expected.
经过数十万年，地球的轨道 Small changes in Earth's orbit
会产生小小的变化， that occur over tens to hundreds of thousands of years
这些变化会改变 alter the distribution
地球各部分得到的阳光。 of sunlight on Earth.
如果高纬度地区 When there is more sunlight
在夏天得到更多的日照，冰盖就会融化。 at high latitudes in summer, ice sheets melt.
减少后的冰盖会 Shrinking ice sheets
让地球变得更暗， make the planet darker,
地球因此会吸收更多的阳光， so it absorbs more sunlight
变得更加温暖。 and becomes warmer.
升温的海洋会释放二氧化碳， A warmer ocean releases CO2,
就像升温的可口可乐一样。 just as a warm Coca-Cola does.
更多的二氧化碳会引发更严重的变暖。 And more CO2 causes more warming.
因此，二氧化碳、甲烷和冰盖 So CO2, methane, and ice sheets
都是放大了 were feedbacks
全球温度变化的反馈， that amplified global temperature change
尽管气候变化最初是因小小的变化而起， causing these ancient climate oscillations to be huge,
这些古老的气候变化指数 even though the climate change was initiated
也会变得非常大。 by a very weak forcing.
重要的问题是 The important point
这些同样的放大的反馈 is that these same amplifying feedbacks
会出现在现在。 will occur today.
物理原理是不会变的。 The physics does not change.
随着地球变暖， As Earth warms,
现在是因为我们排入大气层的多余的二氧化碳， now because of extra CO2 we put in the atmosphere,
冰层将会融化， ice will melt,
升温的海洋和融化的冻土 and CO2 and methane will be released
会释放出二氧化碳和甲烷。 by warming ocean and melting permafrost.
虽然我们不知道这些放大的反馈 While we can't say exactly how fast
会多快发生， these amplifying feedbacks will occur,
但毫无疑问它们会发生， it is certain they will occur,
除非我们停止让地球变暖。 unless we stop the warming.
有证据显示 There is evidence
这些反馈已经开始了。 that feedbacks are already beginning.
重力卫星GRACE的 Precise measurements
精准测量显示， by GRACE, the gravity satellite,
格陵兰岛和南极都在 reveal that both Greenland and Antarctica
变小， are now losing mass,
它们每年都会缩小几百立方千米。 several hundred cubic kilometers per year.
自从九年前 And the rate has accelerated
测量开始以来， since the measurements began
它们的缩小率都在加快。 nine years ago.
甲烷也开始 Methane is also beginning
从冻土中逃出。 to escape from the permafrost.
海平面将会 What sea level rise
上升至什么程度？ can we look forward to?
上一次二氧化碳含量为390ppm时， The last time CO2 was 390 ppm,
这个含量即是现在的含量， today's value,
海平面高出了 sea level was higher
至少15米，50英尺。 by at least 15 meters, 50 feet.
各位现在坐的地方 Where you are sitting now
会在水下。 would be under water.
大多数预算表明，在本世纪， Most estimates are that, this century,
海平面会上升至少一米。 we will get at least one meter.
我认为，如果我们继续燃烧化石燃料， I think it will be more
海平面会上升更多， if we keep burning fossil fuels,
在本世纪或此后不久， perhaps even five meters, which is 18 feet,
海平面也许会上升5米，即18英尺。 this century or shortly thereafter.
问题的关键是， The important point
我们将开始一个 is that we will have started a process
超出人类控制的进程。 that is out of humanity's control.
冰盖将连着几个世纪持续消融。 Ice sheets would continue to disintegrate for centuries.
海岸线将不再稳定。 There would be no stable shoreline.
随之而来的经济损失是不可想象的。 The economic consequences are almost unthinkable.
全世界都会出现数百起像新奥尔良一样的 Hundreds of New Orleans-like devastations
毁灭。 around the world.
如果我们继续否认气候变化， What may be more reprehensible,
更应受谴责的后果恐怕是 if climate denial continues,
物种的灭绝。 is extermination of species.
据气候变化政府委员会预计， The monarch butterfly
目前的物种中有百分之二十到五十都会在 could be one of the 20 to 50 percent of all species
本世纪末灭绝， that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates
帝王蝶就可能是 will be ticketed for extinction
其中之一， by the end of the century
如果我们仍像现在这样使用化石燃料。 if we stay on business-as-usual fossil fuel use.
全球变暖已经在影响我们了。 Global warming is already affecting people.
去年发生在德州、俄克拉荷马州和墨西哥的 The Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico
热潮与干旱， heatwave and drought last year,
去年的莫斯科热潮 Moscow the year before
和2003年的欧洲热潮 and Europe in 2003,
都是不正常的现象， were all exceptional events,
这些事情的概率超过了正常值3个标准差。 more than three standard deviations outside the norm.
50年前， Fifty years ago,
这些异常现象仅 such anomalies
覆盖了百分之一的陆地面积的 covered only two- to three-tenths
十分之二到十分之三。 of one percent of the land area.
在近几年， In recent years,
因为全球变暖， because of global warming,
异常现象覆盖了约百分之十—— they now cover about 10 percent --
比以前增加了25到50倍。 an increase by a factor of 25 to 50.
我们可以很肯定地说， So we can say with a high degree of confidence
发生在德州和莫斯科的严重热潮 that the severe Texas and Moscow heatwaves
是反自然的； were not natural;
它们是由全球变暖造成的。 they were caused by global warming.
如果全球变暖持续， An important impact,
我们以及全世界的食物 if global warming continues,
都将受到重要影响。 will be on the breadbasket of our nation and the world,
中西部和大平原地区 the Midwest and Great Plains,
将变得极易干旱， which are expected to become prone to extreme droughts,
比20世纪30年代的大沙尘暴还要严重。 worse than the Dust Bowl,
如果我们继续对全球变暖不闻不问， within just a few decades,
这将在几十年内就变成事实。 if we let global warming continue.
我是如何变得越来越 How did I get dragged deeper and deeper
渴望与公众交流， into an attempt to communicate,
在10个国家演讲，被逮捕， giving talks in 10 countries, getting arrested,
耗尽我积攒了30多年的 burning up the vacation time
度假时间？ that I had accumulated over 30 years?
我的孙子孙女中也有越来越多的人来帮我。 More grandchildren helped me along.
Jake是一个非常积极向上、 Jake is a super-positive,
热情活跃的男孩儿。 enthusiastic boy.
他只有2岁半的时候， Here at age two and a half years,
就觉得他能保护 he thinks he can protect
他两岁半天大的妹妹。 his two and a half-day-old little sister.
把一个持续迅速失控的 It would be immoral
气候系统 to leave these young people
留给这些年轻人 with a climate system
是不道德的。 spiraling out of control.
而气候变化的悲剧是， Now the tragedy about climate change
我们其实只用一个简单、诚实的办法 is that we can solve it
就可以解决它。 with a simple, honest approach
我们可以逐步提高从化石燃料公司 of a gradually rising carbon fee
收取的碳化气体排放费， collected from fossil fuel companies
通过电汇、依据个人收入水平 and distributed 100 percent electronically
把这次钱百分之百地分配到 every month to all legal residents
合法居民头上， on a per capita basis,
政府不拿其中一分钱。 with the government not keeping one dime.
大多数人拿到的月津贴将比 Most people would get more in the monthly dividend
他们为上涨的物价多付的钱要多。 than they'd pay in increased prices.
这笔费用和津贴 This fee and dividend
将促进经济 would stimulate the economy
和创新， and innovations,
创造数以百万的工作机会。 creating millions of jobs.
这是让我们 It is the principal requirement
加速进入一个清洁未来的 for moving us rapidly
主要条件。 to a clean energy future.
几位顶级经济学家 Several top economists
合作提出这个主张。 are coauthors on this proposition.
来自环保共和党人的Jim DiPeso Jim DiPeso of Republicans for Environmental Protection
因此这样形容道： describes it thusly:
”公开透明。以市场需求为基础。 "Transparent. Market-based.
不扩大政府。 Does not enlarge government.
让公民个人为能源做决定。 Leaves energy decisions to individual choices.
听起来像是一个保守的气候计划。“ Sounds like a conservative climate plan."
但是政府却没有提高碳化气体排放费， But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions
让化石燃料公司为它们带给社会的 to make fossil fuels pay
真正危害买单， their true cost to society,
却在迫使世界范围的 our governments are forcing the public
公民大众每年掏出 to subsidize fossil fuels
400到500亿美元 by 400 to 500 billion dollars
补贴化石燃料公司。 per year worldwide,
这就鼓励化石燃料公司去挖掘每一滴化石燃料—— thus encouraging extraction of every fossil fuel --
切掉山顶， mountaintop removal,
长壁开采，水力压裂， longwall mining, fracking,
焦油沙，焦油页岩， tar sands, tar shale,
深海北极钻探。 deep ocean Arctic drilling.
如果我们继续走这条道路， This path, if continued,
我们一定会超过引爆点， guarantees that we will pass tipping points
引发冰盖消融， leading to ice sheet disintegration
等到了我们的后代时，消融会超出人类控制地加速。 that will accelerate out of control of future generations.
许多物种都将 A large fraction of species
走向灭亡。 will be committed to extinction.
加剧的旱灾和洪涝 And increasing intensity of droughts and floods
将严重影响世界的食物产量， will severely impact breadbaskets of the world,
带来严重的饥荒 causing massive famines
和经济衰退。 and economic decline.
想象一个巨大的小行星 Imagine a giant asteroid
在和地球正面相撞的轨道上。 on a direct collision course with Earth.
这和我们现在 That is the equivalent
所面对的情况是相同的。 of what we face now.
然而，我们犹豫不决， Yet, we dither,
却不改变 taking no action
小行星的轨道， to divert the asteroid,
即使我们知道我们等得越久， even though the longer we wait,
改变就变得更难更贵。 the more difficult and expensive it becomes.
如果我们从2005年就开始改变的话， If we had started in 2005,
我们需要每年减少百分之三的气体排放， it would have required emission reductions of three percent per year
才能在本世纪重造能源平衡， to restore planetary energy balance
稳定气候。 and stabilize climate this century.
如果我们从明年开始， If we start next year,
我们需要每年减少百分之六。 it is six percent per year.
如果我们等上十年，就得百分之十五—— If we wait 10 years, it is 15 percent per year --
极其困难与昂贵， extremely difficult and expensive,
也许甚至会是不可能的。 perhaps impossible.
然而我们到现在都没有开始。 But we aren't even starting.
现在你们知道了到底是什么 So now you know what I know
驱使我发出警告。 that is moving me to sound this alarm.
显然，这个消息还没有被足够广泛地传播。 Clearly, I haven't gotten this message across.
科学证据再清晰不过了。 The science is clear.
我需要你们的帮助， I need your help
来更有效地传播 to communicate the gravity and the urgency
情况的重要性 of this situation
和紧急性， and its solutions
以及解决办法。 more effectively.
我们要对我们的后代负责。 We owe it to our children and grandchildren.
谢谢大家。 Thank you.
（掌声） (Applause)