low everyone misses development economics
by Tyler Cowen and Alex have brought on my lips have rocked today we're going to
be talking about guns
Guns Germs and Steel which is Jared Diamond's really big thing
book key book everyone should read about the really big questions
about development a diamond is asking you to wire some regions and countries
rich
while others are poor and in particular he's asking why is it that you're Asia
developed first rather than South America
Africa more Austrailia very exciting opening up guns
Germs and Steel house pizarro you know
with the hundred soldiers 60 horses and some stealing guns of course
taken over the entire incan empire with 80,000 soldiers
how is this possible why did this happen well very briefly
diamond argues that there are surprisingly few
domestic a bull animals and crops and regions of the world which had these
animals and crops which were capable being domesticated
this led to agriculture which led to cities
and civilization that led to guns into steel
an agriculture and domesticated animals
also led to an even more potent weapon and guns
the most destructive weapon ever used on earth germs
let's take a look in a little bit more detail about argument
first of all why are domestic will animals important
well they're so important because of there many uses
so a domesticated animal like a cow
can be used for milk for meat
for clothing for leather and so forth
I can also be used to plow as a source of power
source of power allowing human to do with the otherwise could not
could even be used as a military vehicle to help take over and protect and defend
now these domestic good domestic a double
animals were not evenly distributed across the globe factor surprisingly few
of them
are in the world today there's really only five major cases
sheep goats cows pigs and horses
there's a few lesser cases the Arabian camel the Bactrian camel
donkeys and reindeers our llamas and alpacas
method which I've never even heard it before I read diamond
maybe a few others the akc well the wild ancestors
these animals were not spread evenly across the globe
none up the ancestors was indigenous to sub-saharan Africa
only the llama and alpaca had a wild ancestor which was
indigenous to South or North America thirteen of the fourteen
were Indigenous to Eurasia so you're Asia began
with a major element in its favor it had
these animals these wild ancestors of animals which could
in which did later become domesticated without
having these domesticated domestic animal animals
it's much harder to develop mass agriculture
thing about growing rice without cloud and from there
much harder to get cities of course and civilizations
other way this is a picture I took in a Peruvian museum
I believe it shows how you're supposed to ride
%uh a llama you can see where llamas are not as good as
are parkas allotted not as good as horses on there may be other some other
interpretations of what's going on here but that lease was my interpretation now
this raises the question of course diamond shows that the wild ancestors
all the animals which are currently domesticated
they're almost all native to Eurasia his argument
is that these animals are basically the only ones which were capable
up being domesticated how does he get there how does the show that these are
the only ones
which were capable of being domesticated well he's got a bunch of varied
arguments for this
none of the immersive drop-dead definitive
but I do think in total there quite they're quite convincing more than one
might expect
first evolved the Met the domesticated animals have been domesticated on
several different occasions
independently so it seems like there's a demand
for domestication and if the suppliers there it's gonna happen it's happened
several times several times in the
only so it seems there's forces pushing towards domestication
if that's possible also we know
that when these animals are induced
introduced to non-indigenous areas the natives figure out hey this is great we
need to use these this is a good idea
so think about the native americans and that you know while that horse culture
you know the apaches in the horse culture course forces didn't even come
to North America South American to the fifteen hundred's
before that they were unknown but once the native sawhorses the new this is a
good thing
suggesting once again that if it had been possible
for them to domesticate so their own
indigenous species that they would have done so there's also
are many animals are excluded from domestication
by a variety of their characteristics so some other were just too fierce
I grizzly bears African buffalo's really hard to domesticate
how come you've never seen a zebra rodeo zebras are just mean beasts
which is very difficult to ride on train ride a zebra
that's why we don't see them then there's the diet issue
are some the diet is to limit it like the koalas
just meeting the eucalyptus others their diet to growth ratios not fast enough
to make domestication worthwhile so you don't wanna really domesticate a
carnivore you gotta
grown adult eat other animals it's it's really not gonna work you wanna have an
animal which
eats grass is ingrained and so forth in grows really big
on that then there's animals which are difficult to herd
the you've heard how difficult it is to herd cats
well there you go so cats have manslaughter been domesticated some
people think that cat a domesticated people
rather the than the other a way around certainly don't get a group of them
together
I antelopes and so forth the heart to heard
by neither some animals which actually don't like to have sex when people are
watching
panders are like this there
will be embarrassed this is why the Washington zoo
spent millions of dollars trying to get their panders to have sex
even showing them panda porn
but not much seems to so what about crops
so the case for crops is similar to that of animals
diming argues that the domestic a double crops
again were central to Eurasia were not found elsewhere
little bit harder to make here because their arm
up more animals which were more crops which were capable being domesticated
then there are arm animals there's probably
several thousand plants which are capable of being domesticated
nevertheless the basic facts a reliever
rather striking even today to cereals wheat
Andrew rice account for 41 percent a ball total calories consumed in the
world
suggesting that if you don't have we can you never rice
these crops I which were so important human civilization
probably you're not gonna get civilization either alert certainly
you're going to get it more difficult to leave
slower wheat is native to just the Fertile Crescent
around modern turkey in Iraq rice of course from from China
the other major cereals in addition to
wheat rights we have a corn barley
and on sorghum 45 these are from Eurasia
sorghum is fun North Africa which is clearly
morph
report Eurasian rather than africa is probably easier to get there
because at the Sahara the indigenous versions of wheat rice in
barley and sorghum are very similar to the domesticated versions
corn from Mesoamerica and its wild version is very different
%ah those baby corns which you can buy in the store in can
that's actually closer to what wild porn
you don't want to look like so it took a lot longer to domesticate corn
than it did to domestic aid week rice barley or sorghum
salsa turned out that a lot of plants are surprisingly difficult to
to masticate you know for example to give one example we think we know how to
grow apples cousin Johnny Appleseed in
you know throwing the seeds but were wrong that's not how you grow apples
apples grown from seeds actually don't taste very good plans don't grow that
well
the way to get delicious apples is grafting
not ceding not at all obvious not at all obvious
so a lot of Lancer more difficult to domesticate than you might imagine
put all this together we have an uneven distribution
up these domestic a bull plants and animals led some parts of the world
eurasia in particular to develop develop agriculture
agriculture and other ideas in Eurasia
also spread faster because the major axis
on the continent is east-west rather than North
South this meant that since climate is similar
along lines of latitude along these east-west lines of latitude
that a good idea developed in one part of the world could transmit
horizontally as it were to a large area
so this meant that scale was actually bigger on Africa the north-south
you know you can go several hundred miles north or several hundred miles
south
and your crops and animals will simply not do as well
in that different climate so you're Asia
in a sense had a larger market we're gonna talk a lot more about scale
I who elsewhere in the class but even at the very beginnings
are modern of civilization we have the important
scale having a lot of people working on the same problem
being able to transmit their ideas all over the world to a large
area to this that Justice Stephen the placement of the
axes up the car today it's diamond argues
has implications alright
well even with all these advantages up guns
stealing horses the conquest at North and South America
might have been a close call had it not been for germs
the major infectious diseases in humans
all evolve from diseases %uh animals smallpox
flutie tuberculosis malaria playing so work the all come from animals
and europeans know the live next door
often in the same barn as the animals this meant
on the negative side they were repeatedly decimated
by these plates but for that very same reason europeans developed some
immunity to this is darwinism in
action the humans which survived these repeated
attacks by these germs
the group stronger and the develop some immunity
on the other hand in 15-20
it took just one sick person
to bring smallpox to South America where it may have killed
ninety percent ninety percent of the population
it's possible this is a young girl with in Bangladesh
she was in fact it was smallpox in 1973 you can see what
absolutely devastating debilitating horrible disease it is
9077 we eliminated smallpox from the world the first time this has ever been
done
well in 15-20 without this developed immunity
K millions I'll South Americans have the indigenous population
were wiped out to this explains how pizarro
came
1530 1535 to the
Incan Empire to the Incan Empire was in disarray
K millions have these people have died from the smallpox from these planes
which it come over
and then you have arriving on your shores these guys are horses
never-before-seen
looking like gods with their steal their guns
bringing down death from far away and
I other steel armor and their steel
of sorts to this explains
why with this culture in disarray
dying from these diseases these incredibly advanced people with their
technology
never seen before how hundred soldiers
60 horses were able to take over the entire incan
Empire you see actually the same story
little bit later in North America very similar stuff so when the pilgrims
come to North America the actually find empty villages
prepare for them as if by Providence
in fact the Pilgrims were quickly draw these conclusions or John Winthrop
was governor Massachusetts he thought the play was great
was miraculous he said but for the natives in these parts
God have so pursued them as for three hundred miles
space the greatest Potter them are swept away by the smallpox
which still continues among them so God hath
thereby cleared our title to this
place those who remain in these parts being an all-night 50
have put themselves under are protection
so god has cleared the title God has done his
a basically genocide are
according to John Winthrop and has done this on behalf for the pilgrims
King James said the same thing he said almighty god is great goodness and
bounty towards us
miss to be thanked Press sending this wonderful plague
among the savages
so let's summarize the diamond argument this is from a a picture in his book
so the ultimate factors at the top of the are
diagram the east-west axis other your Asia
this led to the eases species are spreading
many suitable wild species put these two things together
you got a large domesticated plants and animal species
these domesticated plant and animal species meant you had
stood surpluses and storage
see were able to create scale you able to create a lot of people
in dense sedentary societies
this led to are specialization
and this led to technology creating things like guns and steel and swords
creating
ocean-going ships having some welfare having some scientists class if you like
some research and development class
some people who were there to spank not just to produce food
this led to political organization the ability to
gather a lot of resources together I put all these things together you can see
why
the nor my the europeans
no sent out the ship's rather than the other way and of course with them
the brought these epidemic diseases which also had come from the
domesticated plants in and particularly the domesticated animals
and water than being the horses you put all this together and you understand
like this are always able to take over the end can two allies Asian an early
slightly earlier
a court has it done the same thing with the Aztex
and how in North America again be able to wipe out
the native populations okay
so dive in give us a really big really important story I
it really takes is up to Sir 1500 1600 you might say
but what that you know france in China they're both in your Asia
but today the former's rich in the latter's poor
despite the fact that the share most of these factors
that %uh diamond focuses on to 1500 friends in China
about equal maybe even China little bit richer perhaps but since then
everything's changed
and geography hasn't changed
so geography can explain only so much out fact we can say a little bit more
there's been a reversal of fortune
the rich places in 1500 actually tend not to be the rich places today
so China and India fabulously wealthy in some sense in 1500 where you go when you
look a little bit later in Peru
obviously wealthy their fathers nothing
but a few shacks in teepees in
North America South America is where all the money is
K richest country in South America props eighty
Central America arm
out today that one of the poorest countries in this area
so why is this clearly G
geography can explain why some countries a ridge today while others
are are poor cannot explain it up on the Eurasian continent at least
so I think we do know something about the answer to that question
you're rich countries have good institutions things like protection a
private property in the rule of law
limited government some form of capitalism
to say that capitalism may be necessary or some former did
love it it's necessary certainly not sufficient but of course
we're gonna be talking about all these things a lot more of the class goes on
so diamond grade are you in Texas to about 1500 1600
we're gonna be dealing with a lot of these are things later on course
thank you