下午好。能来到TEDxKrakow（克拉科夫，波兰城市）我非常骄傲。 Good afternoon. I am proud to be here at TEDxKrakow.
今天我要说一说 I'll try to speak a little bit today about a phenomenon
一个有能力并且正在改变世界的现象， which can and is actually changing the world,
这个现象就是人民的力量。 and whose name is people power.
让我先来与你们分享一段轶事， I'll start with the anecdote, or for those of you
如果你们喜欢猛踢蒙提·派森（英国喜剧团体）的话，这就是一个蒙提·派森式的小品。 who are Monty Python lovers, a Monty Python type of sketch.
故事是这样的。2010年12月15日。 Here it is. It is December 15, 2010.
有人和你打赌。赌约是，你可以从水晶球里 Somebody gives you a bet. You will look at a crystal ball
准确地看到未来。 and you will see the future. The future will be accurate.
但是你必须把你所看到的公之于众。你愿意吗？ But you need to share it with the world. Okay?
好奇心杀死猫。你接受挑战 Curiosity killed the cat. You take the bet.
看了水晶球。一个小时之后 You look at the crystal ball. One hour later,
你在全国性的电视台的大楼里 you are sitting in a building on the national TV
做脱口秀节目，讲述你在水晶球里看到的事情。 in a talkshow, and you tell the story.
“2011年结束之前，本·阿里、穆巴拉克 "Before the end of 2011, Ben Ali and Mubarak
和卡扎菲都会垮台并被起诉。 and Gaddafi will be down and prosecuted.
也门的萨利赫和叙利亚的阿萨德 Saleh of Yemen and Assad of Syria
会受到挑战甚至屈服于压力。 would be either challenged or already on their knees.
奥萨马·本·拉登会死去， Osama bin Laden will be dead,
拉科˙穆拉迪契会在海牙国际法庭受审。” and Ratko Mladic will be in the Hague."
现在，主持人用一种奇怪的眼神凝视着你， Now, the anchor watches you with a strange gaze on his face,
然后你又补充道， and then on the top of it you add,
“在雅典、马德里和纽约，成千上万的年轻人 "And thousands of the young people from Athens, Madrid
会走上街头，声称自己受阿拉伯世界影响， and New York will demonstrate for social justice,
要为社会公正示威。” claiming that they are inspired with Arabs."
接下来，两个身着白衣的人出现。 Next thing you know, two guys in white appear.
给你一件古怪的T恤， They give you the strange t-shirt,
把你送到最近的精神病院。 take you to the nearest mental institution.
所以我想谈一谈这一年 So I would like to speak a little bit about the phenomenon
恶霸不断倒台背后的现象 which is behind what already seems to be the very bad year
这个现象就是人民的力量。 for bad guys, and this phenomenon is called people power.
人民的力量并不是什么新生现象。 Well, people power has been there for a while.
它帮助甘地把英国人赶出印度。 It helped Gandhi kick the Brits from India.
它帮助马丁·路德·金赢得了一场历史性的种族斗争。 It helped Martin Luther King win a historic racial struggle.
它帮助波兰的莱赫·瓦文萨 It helped local Lech Walesa to kick out
将一百万苏联军队赶出波兰 one million Soviet troops from Poland
启动了苏联的解体。 and beginning the end of the Soviet Union as we know it.
现在的人民力量新在何处呢？ So what's new in it? What seems to be very new,
我今天就想谈一谈这个问题 which is the idea I would like to share with you today,
要进行成功的非暴力斗争 that there is a set of rules and skills which can be learned
我们需要一系列可学习可传授的规则和技能。 and taught in order to perform successful nonviolent struggle.
如果事实如此，我们可以协助此类运动的开展。 If this is true, we can help these movements.
第一，分析能力。 Well, first one, analytic skills.
请让我从这一切的源头中东地区说起 I'll try where it all started in the Middle East,
多年来，我们对中东地区的印象 and for so many years we were living with completely the wrong
一直有失偏颇。 perception of the Middle East.
我们认为中东好像一个被冷冻的区域，一个冰箱 It was looking like the frozen region, literally a refrigerator,
而且里面只有两种食物： and there are only two types of meals there:
一种是牛排，代表穆巴拉克、本·阿里这种 steak, which stands for a Mubarak, Ben Ali-type of
军事独裁统治，另外一种是土豆， military police dictatorship, or a potato,
也就是以伊朗德黑兰政权为代表的神权政体。 which stands for Tehran types of theocracies.
因此当冰箱打开，成千上万的年轻人， And everybody was amazed when the refrigerator opened
其中大部分拥有着平凡的价值观，走上街头呼吁变革的时候 and millions of young, mainly secular people step out
很多人非常惊讶。知道为什么吗？他们没有关注中东的人口统计特征。 to do the change. Guess what? They didn't watch the demographics.
埃及的平均年龄是多少？24岁。 What is the average age of Egyptians? 24.
穆巴拉克在位多少年了？31年。 How long was Mubarak in power? 31.
所以这样的统治系统已经过时。应该退休了。 So this system: just obsolete. They expired,
而阿拉伯世界的年轻人某一天早上醒来 and young people of the Arab World have awakened
突然意识到力量就在自己手中。 one morning and understood that power lies in their hands.
此后一年间发生的事情我们已经熟知。 The rest is the year in front of us. And guess what?
这一代人有着自己规则 The same Generation Epsilon with their rules,
自己的工具，自己的游戏和自己的语言 with their tools, with their games and with their language,
这种语言对我来说有些奇怪。我今年38岁了。 which sounds a little bit strange to me. I am 38 now.
再看看欧洲街头示威人群的年龄组成？ And can you look at the age of the people on the streets of Europe?
年轻一代正在走上政治舞台。 It seems that Generation Epsilon is coming.
现在请允许我再举一个例子。 Now let me set another example.
我与来自世界各地的很多人讨论过这个话题 I'm meeting different people throughout the world,
学者、教授、医生都有 and they are, you know, academics and professors
他们都喜欢讲条件。 and doctors, and they will always talk conditions.
他们会说，“只有政权对于人民的压迫过于深重的时候，人民的力量才会起作用。” They will say, "People power will work only if the regime is not too oppressive."
他们还说：“如果该国年人均收入在X和Z之间 They will say, "People power will work if the annual income
人民的力量才会起作用。“ of the country is between X and Z."
他们说：”只有外国施加压力时，人民的力量才会起效。“ They will say, "People power will work only if there is a foreign pressure."
他们说，”只有在不牵涉的石油的情况下人民的力量才会起效“ They will say, "People power will work only if there is no oil."
这些条件确实存在。 And, I mean, there is a set of conditions.
然而，真正的重点是，应对冲突的技能 Well, the news here is that your skills [that you] bring in the conflict
似乎比这些条件更加重要， seem to be more important than the conditions,
它们分别是团结、规划 namely skills of unity, planning,
和坚持和非暴力斗争。 and maintaining nonviolent discipline.
请允许我再举一个例子。 Let me give you the example.
我来自塞尔维亚。 I am coming from a country called Serbia.
我们花了10年的时间才联合18个自恃甚高的反对党领袖 It took us 10 years to unite 18 opposition party leaders,
选出一个候选人 with their big egos, behind one single candidate
对抗巴尔干独裁者斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇。 against Balkan dictator Slobodan Milosevic.
你猜结果怎样？他的末日就此到来。 Guess what? That was the day of his defeat.
再看埃及人，他们在解放广场上示威时 You look at the Egyptians, they fire on Tahrir Square,
去除了所有个人符号。 they get rid of their individual symbols.
他们走上街头时只带着埃及国旗。 They appear on the street only with the flag of Egypt.
请允许我再举一个反例。 I will give you a counter-example.
有9个候选人和卢卡申科竞争总总统职位。 You see nine presidential candidates running against Lukashenko.
结果不言而喻。 You will know the outcome.
因此，团结非常重要，而且也不难做到。 So unity is a big thing, and this can be achieved.
事先计划也是一样。有人跟你提到过 Same with planning. Somebody has lied to you
成功的自发非暴力革命？ about the successful and spontaneous nonviolent revolution?
世界上不存在这种革命。 That thing doesn't exist in the world.
如果你看到年轻人在接上 Whenever you see young people in front of the road
态度友好的和警察或者军队交涉， trying to fraternize with the police or military,
肯定有人实现计划。 somebody was thinking about it before.
最后我要谈一谈不使用暴力的重要性， Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline,
这在一场运动中可能会起到决定性的作用。 and this is probably the game-changer.
如果坚持非暴力斗争，你就会取得胜利。 If you maintain nonviolent discipline, you will exclusively win.
如果十万人参加了非暴力游行， You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march,
如果其中一个白痴或者奸细扔了石头 and one idiot or agent provocateur is throwing stones,
媒体的镜头全都会对准这一个人。 guess what takes all the cameras? That one guy.
一个暴力行为就可以 One single act of violence can literally
毁掉整个运动。 destroy your movement.
现在我们看下一个问题。 Now let me move to another place.
战略和战术的甄选。 It's selection of strategies and tactics.
在非暴力斗争中遵守一些规则是必要的。 There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow.
第一，从小规模的运动开始。 First, you start small.
第二，将精力集中在可能赢的活动上。 Second, you pick the battles you can win.
今天出席的观众大约两百人。 It's only 200 of us in this room.
我们没办法组织百万人大游行。 We won't call for the March of Millions.
如果我们趁夜晚在克拉科夫 But what if we organize spraying graffiti throughout the night
四处涂鸦呢？市民们一定会知道的。 all over Krakow city? The city will know.
因此，我们根据形势挑选策略 So we pick the tactics which accommodates to the event,
尤其是运用分散的小规模策略。 especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion.
这种策略在暴力镇压中特别有效。 They're very useful in a violent oppression.
这张照片记录的就是 We are actually witnessing the picture
有史以来最棒的策略之一。 of one of the best tactics ever used.
这是在解放广场，国际社会 It was on Tahrir Square, where the international community
一直担心伊斯兰教徒会在这里 was constantly frightened that the Islamists
改变革命的性质。于是，他们安排了 will overtake the revolution. Well, they've organized
基督教徒保护正在祈祷的穆斯林 Christians protecting Muslims, who are there praying,
以及受到成千上万穆斯林祝福的科普特人婚礼。 Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims.
他们改变了世界的想法， The world has just changed the picture,
这一切都是事前计划的。 but somebody was thinking about this previously.
除了聚集在一起， So there are so many things you can do instead of
在安保人员面前大叫示威之外， getting into one place, shouting and
还有很多其他的斗争方式。 showing off in front of the security forces.
事实上还有一种动态制衡也非常重要 Now there is also another very important dynamic,
而且常被分析家忽略。 and this is a dynamic normally analytics don't see.
这是以热情和幽默 This is dynamics between fear and apathy on one side
化解恐惧和冷漠的动态。 and enthusiasm and humor on another side.
它的运作方式很像电子游戏。 So it works like in a video game.
如果恐惧指数较高，那其它状态保持不变。 You have a fear high, you have status quo.
如果热情指数升高，恐惧就会开始下降。 You have enthusiasm higher, you see fear starting to melt.
在第二天，你就会看到人们跑向警察， Day two, you see people running towards police
而不是从警察身边逃离。 instead of from the police.
不难看出，埃及就发生了类似的变化。 In Egypt, you can tell that something is happening there.
接下来我们说说幽默。幽默拥有巨大的力量 And then it's about humor. Humor is such a powerful
可以改变局势，而且波兰人民的幽默感一向不错。 game-changer, and of course it was very big in Poland.
在塞尔维亚，我们一小群疯狂的学生 And you know, we were just a small group of crazy students
曾经组织过大型的滑稽活动。 in Serbia when we made this big skit.
我们在主干道的中间 We put the big petrol barrel with a
放上一个大汽油桶 portrait picture of Mr. President on it
上面贴着总统先生的照片。桶的顶端有一个洞 in the middle of the Main Street. There was a hole on the top
所以人们可以过来投币 so you could literally come, put a coin in,
拿起棒球棍，给总统的脸来上一棒。 get a baseball bat, and pow, hit his face.
声音非常响。我们坐在附近的咖啡馆喝咖啡 Sounds loud. And within the minutes, we were sitting
观察形势发展，几分钟之内， in a nearby cafe having coffee, and there was
就有一群人排队投币打总统。 a queue of people waiting to do this lovely thing.
好戏这时才刚刚开始。 Well, that's just the beginning of the show.
警察的出现掀起了真正的高潮。 The real show starts when the police appears.
他们会怎么做呢？逮捕我们？他们根本找不到我们。 What will they do? Arrest us? We are nowhere to be seen.
我们在三个街区之外的咖啡馆静观其变呢。 We are three blocks away observing it from our espresso bar.
逮捕那些带着孩子的购物者？没有道理。 Arrest the shoppers with kids? Doesn't make sense.
也许你们猜得到，最终他们还是做了最愚蠢的事情： Of course, you could bet they have done the most stupid thing:
他们逮捕了那个汽油桶。 They arrested the barrel. And now the picture
警察将被打的歪七扭八的总统头像汽油桶 of the smashed face on the barrel with the policeman
拖向警车的画面 dragging them to the police car, that was the best day
让报纸摄影记者们欣喜若狂。 for the photographers from newspapers that they ever will have.
因此，我们都可以做一些力所能及的事， So, I mean, these are the things you can do,
而且别忘记将幽默融入其中。 and you can always use the humor.
幽默的力量在于：独裁者们 There is also one big thing about the humor: It really hurts,
太在意他们的形象了，幽默其实拥有着巨大的杀伤力。 because these guys really are taking themselves too seriously.
那些统治者一旦被嘲讽，就会坐立不安。 When you start to mock them, it hurts.
现在，人们都在谈论尊贵的因特网殿下， Now, everybody is talking about His Majesty, the Internet,
网络也确实是一个非常有用的工具 and it is also a very useful skill, but don't rush
但是别急着将各种运动命名为脸书革命或者推特（微博）革命。 to label things like Facebook Revolution, Twitter Revolution.
不要混淆工具和实质。 Don't mix tools with the substance.
在提高效率和降低成本方面 It is true that the Internet and new media are very useful
网络和新媒体非常有效。 in making things faster and cheaper.
网络的匿名性则 They make it also a bit safer for the participants
提高了参加反抗运动的安全性。 because they give the part of anonymity.
我们现在看到的是，是因特网在另外一个方面做出的伟大贡献。 We are watching the great example of something else the Internet can do.
它可以让暴力镇压和平示威的政府付出代价。 It can put the price tag of state-sponsored violence over nonviolent protesters.
这是Wael Ghonim和他的朋友在埃及 This is a famous group, We are all Khaled Said,
创建的一个著名组织，“我们都是Khaled Said”。 made by Wael Ghonim in Egypt and his friend.
这是一个被警察殴打的年轻人受伤的面孔。 This is the mutilated face of the guy who was beaten by the police.
他成为了公众的代表，可能就是 This is how he became the public, and this is what probably
压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。 became the straw which broke the camel's back.
然而因特网也有它的局限。 But here is also the bad news.
和平示威只有在真实世界， The nonviolent struggle is won in the real world,
在街头才能取得胜利。如果只坐在电脑面前点击鼠标的话 in the streets. You will never change your society
你永远也无法 towards democracy or economics
改善社会、推进民主。 if you sit down and click.
必须冒险，必须有活生生的人参加 There are risks to be taken and there are living people
斗争才有可能取得胜利。 who are winning the struggle.
再说一个重要的问题：阿拉伯世界今后会如何发展？ Well, million dollar question: What will happen in the Arab World?
阿拉伯世界的年轻人 And though young people from the Arab World
成功的扳倒了三个独裁者， were pretty successful in bringing down three dictators,
振荡了整个世界的格局，一定程度上说服了 shaking the region, kind of persuading clever kings
约旦和摩洛哥聪明的国王大举改革， from Jordan and Morocco doing substantial reforms,
但最终的结果还尚未揭晓， it is yet to be seen what will be the outcome,
埃及和突尼斯能否成功过渡 whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will make it through the transition
会不会有血腥的种族或者宗教冲突爆发 or this will end in bloody ethnic and religious conflict,
面对日渐残暴、已经造成上千人死亡 whether the Syrians will maintain nonviolent discipline,
的暴力镇压，叙利亚人民 faced with the brutal daily violence
能否坚持不动用武力 which kills thousands already,
还是说他们会陷入武装斗争 or they will slip into violent struggle
引起一场惨烈的内战。 and make ugly civil war.
这些革命是否能引领国家向民主过渡 Will these revolutions be whole like through the transitions
它们的胜利果实会不会被军方 to democracy or be overtaken by military
或者各种极端分子攫取？我们无法预测。 or extremists of all kinds? We cannot tell.
发生在西方社会的抗议也是如此 Same works for the Western sector, where you can see
有很多激愤的年轻人四处抗议 all of these excited young people protesting around the world,
一会儿占领这个，一会儿占领那个。 occupying this, occupying that.
他们会引领世界的潮流吗？ Are they going to become the world wave?
他们是会用自己的能力、热情和策略 Are they going to find their skills, their enthusiasm,
去追寻理想，推动改革 and their strategy to find what they really want
还是会继续 and push for the reform, or will they just stay
抱怨他们憎恨的无数现象？ complaining about the endless list of the things they hate?
这两者有云泥之别。 This is the difference between two towns.
数据显示出什么样的发展趋势呢？ Now, what [do] the statistics have?
我的朋友Maria Stephan的书 My friend's book, Maria Stephan's book,
探讨了与暴力和非暴力斗争有关的大量问题 talks a lot about violent and nonviolent struggle,
也包含着一些惊人的数据。 and there are some shocking data.
过去35年中 If you look at the last 35 years
在不同的国家一共发生了67次 and different social transitions from dictatorship to democracy,
从独裁到民主的社会变革 you will see that out of 67 different cases,
其中有50次是通过非暴力斗争实现的 in 50 of these cases it was nonviolent struggle
因此，非暴力斗争能起到非常关键的作用。 which was the key power.
从这个角度来看，当今世界正在发生的事情值得关注。 This is one more reason to look at this phenomenon.
从这个角度来看，年轻一代值得关注， This is one more reason to look at the Generation Epsilon,
我相信他们有希望 enough for me to give them credit and hope
用自己的能力和勇气 that they will find their skills and their courage
通过非暴力斗争 to use the nonviolent struggle
解决一部分 and thus fix at least a part of the mess
我们这代人给世界带来的问题。 our generation is making in this world.
谢谢。（掌声） Thank you. (Applause)