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下午好。能来到TEDxKrakow（克拉科夫，波兰城市）我非常骄傲。
Good afternoon. I am proud to be here at TEDxKrakow.

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今天我要说一说
I'll try to speak a little bit today about a phenomenon

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一个有能力并且正在改变世界的现象，
which can and is actually changing the world,

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这个现象就是人民的力量。
and whose name is people power.

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让我先来与你们分享一段轶事，
I'll start with the anecdote, or for those of you

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如果你们喜欢猛踢蒙提·派森（英国喜剧团体）的话，这就是一个蒙提·派森式的小品。
who are Monty Python lovers, a Monty Python type of sketch.

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故事是这样的。2010年12月15日。
Here it is. It is December 15, 2010.

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有人和你打赌。赌约是，你可以从水晶球里
Somebody gives you a bet. You will look at a crystal ball

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准确地看到未来。
and you will see the future. The future will be accurate.

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但是你必须把你所看到的公之于众。你愿意吗？
But you need to share it with the world. Okay?

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好奇心杀死猫。你接受挑战
Curiosity killed the cat. You take the bet.

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看了水晶球。一个小时之后
You look at the crystal ball. One hour later,

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你在全国性的电视台的大楼里
you are sitting in a building on the national TV

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做脱口秀节目，讲述你在水晶球里看到的事情。
in a talkshow, and you tell the story.

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“2011年结束之前，本·阿里、穆巴拉克
"Before the end of 2011, Ben Ali and Mubarak

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和卡扎菲都会垮台并被起诉。
and Gaddafi will be down and prosecuted.

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也门的萨利赫和叙利亚的阿萨德
Saleh of Yemen and Assad of Syria

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会受到挑战甚至屈服于压力。
would be either challenged or already on their knees.

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奥萨马·本·拉登会死去，
Osama bin Laden will be dead,

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拉科˙穆拉迪契会在海牙国际法庭受审。”
and Ratko Mladic will be in the Hague."

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现在，主持人用一种奇怪的眼神凝视着你，
Now, the anchor watches you with a strange gaze on his face,

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然后你又补充道，
and then on the top of it you add,

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“在雅典、马德里和纽约，成千上万的年轻人
"And thousands of the young people from Athens, Madrid

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会走上街头，声称自己受阿拉伯世界影响，
and New York will demonstrate for social justice,

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要为社会公正示威。”
claiming that they are inspired with Arabs."

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接下来，两个身着白衣的人出现。
Next thing you know, two guys in white appear.

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给你一件古怪的T恤，
They give you the strange t-shirt,

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把你送到最近的精神病院。
take you to the nearest mental institution.

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所以我想谈一谈这一年
So I would like to speak a little bit about the phenomenon

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恶霸不断倒台背后的现象
which is behind what already seems to be the very bad year

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这个现象就是人民的力量。
for bad guys, and this phenomenon is called people power.

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人民的力量并不是什么新生现象。
Well, people power has been there for a while.

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它帮助甘地把英国人赶出印度。
It helped Gandhi kick the Brits from India.

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它帮助马丁·路德·金赢得了一场历史性的种族斗争。
It helped Martin Luther King win a historic racial struggle.

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它帮助波兰的莱赫·瓦文萨
It helped local Lech Walesa to kick out

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将一百万苏联军队赶出波兰
one million Soviet troops from Poland

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启动了苏联的解体。
and beginning the end of the Soviet Union as we know it.

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现在的人民力量新在何处呢？
So what's new in it? What seems to be very new,

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我今天就想谈一谈这个问题
which is the idea I would like to share with you today,

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要进行成功的非暴力斗争
that there is a set of rules and skills which can be learned

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我们需要一系列可学习可传授的规则和技能。
and taught in order to perform successful nonviolent struggle.

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如果事实如此，我们可以协助此类运动的开展。
If this is true, we can help these movements.

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第一，分析能力。
Well, first one, analytic skills.

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请让我从这一切的源头中东地区说起
I'll try where it all started in the Middle East,

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多年来，我们对中东地区的印象
and for so many years we were living with completely the wrong

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一直有失偏颇。
perception of the Middle East.

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我们认为中东好像一个被冷冻的区域，一个冰箱
It was looking like the frozen region, literally a refrigerator,

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而且里面只有两种食物：
and there are only two types of meals there:

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一种是牛排，代表穆巴拉克、本·阿里这种
steak, which stands for a Mubarak, Ben Ali-type of

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军事独裁统治，另外一种是土豆，
military police dictatorship, or a potato,

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也就是以伊朗德黑兰政权为代表的神权政体。
which stands for Tehran types of theocracies.

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因此当冰箱打开，成千上万的年轻人，
And everybody was amazed when the refrigerator opened

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其中大部分拥有着平凡的价值观，走上街头呼吁变革的时候
and millions of young, mainly secular people step out

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很多人非常惊讶。知道为什么吗？他们没有关注中东的人口统计特征。
to do the change. Guess what? They didn't watch the demographics.

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埃及的平均年龄是多少？24岁。
What is the average age of Egyptians? 24.

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穆巴拉克在位多少年了？31年。
How long was Mubarak in power? 31.

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所以这样的统治系统已经过时。应该退休了。
So this system: just obsolete. They expired,

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而阿拉伯世界的年轻人某一天早上醒来
and young people of the Arab World have awakened

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突然意识到力量就在自己手中。
one morning and understood that power lies in their hands.

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此后一年间发生的事情我们已经熟知。
The rest is the year in front of us. And guess what?

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这一代人有着自己规则
The same Generation Epsilon with their rules,

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自己的工具，自己的游戏和自己的语言
with their tools, with their games and with their language,

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这种语言对我来说有些奇怪。我今年38岁了。
which sounds a little bit strange to me. I am 38 now.

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再看看欧洲街头示威人群的年龄组成？
And can you look at the age of the people on the streets of Europe?

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年轻一代正在走上政治舞台。
It seems that Generation Epsilon is coming.

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现在请允许我再举一个例子。
Now let me set another example.

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我与来自世界各地的很多人讨论过这个话题
I'm meeting different people throughout the world,

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学者、教授、医生都有
and they are, you know, academics and professors

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他们都喜欢讲条件。
and doctors, and they will always talk conditions.

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他们会说，“只有政权对于人民的压迫过于深重的时候，人民的力量才会起作用。”
They will say, "People power will work only if the regime is not too oppressive."

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他们还说：“如果该国年人均收入在X和Z之间
They will say, "People power will work if the annual income

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人民的力量才会起作用。“
of the country is between X and Z."

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他们说：”只有外国施加压力时，人民的力量才会起效。“
They will say, "People power will work only if there is a foreign pressure."

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他们说，”只有在不牵涉的石油的情况下人民的力量才会起效“
They will say, "People power will work only if there is no oil."

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这些条件确实存在。
And, I mean, there is a set of conditions.

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然而，真正的重点是，应对冲突的技能
Well, the news here is that your skills [that you] bring in the conflict

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似乎比这些条件更加重要，
seem to be more important than the conditions,

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它们分别是团结、规划
namely skills of unity, planning,

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和坚持和非暴力斗争。
and maintaining nonviolent discipline.

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请允许我再举一个例子。
Let me give you the example.

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我来自塞尔维亚。
I am coming from a country called Serbia.

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我们花了10年的时间才联合18个自恃甚高的反对党领袖
It took us 10 years to unite 18 opposition party leaders,

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选出一个候选人
with their big egos, behind one single candidate

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对抗巴尔干独裁者斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇。
against Balkan dictator Slobodan Milosevic.

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你猜结果怎样？他的末日就此到来。
Guess what? That was the day of his defeat.

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再看埃及人，他们在解放广场上示威时
You look at the Egyptians, they fire on Tahrir Square,

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去除了所有个人符号。
they get rid of their individual symbols.

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他们走上街头时只带着埃及国旗。
They appear on the street only with the flag of Egypt.

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请允许我再举一个反例。
I will give you a counter-example.

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有9个候选人和卢卡申科竞争总总统职位。
You see nine presidential candidates running against Lukashenko.

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结果不言而喻。
You will know the outcome.

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因此，团结非常重要，而且也不难做到。
So unity is a big thing, and this can be achieved.

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事先计划也是一样。有人跟你提到过
Same with planning. Somebody has lied to you

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成功的自发非暴力革命？
about the successful and spontaneous nonviolent revolution?

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世界上不存在这种革命。
That thing doesn't exist in the world.

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如果你看到年轻人在接上
Whenever you see young people in front of the road

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态度友好的和警察或者军队交涉，
trying to fraternize with the police or military,

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肯定有人实现计划。
somebody was thinking about it before.

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最后我要谈一谈不使用暴力的重要性，
Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline,

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这在一场运动中可能会起到决定性的作用。
and this is probably the game-changer.

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如果坚持非暴力斗争，你就会取得胜利。
If you maintain nonviolent discipline, you will exclusively win.

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如果十万人参加了非暴力游行，
You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march,

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如果其中一个白痴或者奸细扔了石头
and one idiot or agent provocateur is throwing stones,

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媒体的镜头全都会对准这一个人。
guess what takes all the cameras? That one guy.

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一个暴力行为就可以
One single act of violence can literally

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毁掉整个运动。
destroy your movement.

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现在我们看下一个问题。
Now let me move to another place.

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战略和战术的甄选。
It's selection of strategies and tactics.

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在非暴力斗争中遵守一些规则是必要的。
There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow.

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第一，从小规模的运动开始。
First, you start small.

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第二，将精力集中在可能赢的活动上。
Second, you pick the battles you can win.

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今天出席的观众大约两百人。
It's only 200 of us in this room.

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我们没办法组织百万人大游行。
We won't call for the March of Millions.

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如果我们趁夜晚在克拉科夫
But what if we organize spraying graffiti throughout the night

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四处涂鸦呢？市民们一定会知道的。
all over Krakow city? The city will know.

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因此，我们根据形势挑选策略
So we pick the tactics which accommodates to the event,

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尤其是运用分散的小规模策略。
especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion.

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这种策略在暴力镇压中特别有效。
They're very useful in a violent oppression.

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这张照片记录的就是
We are actually witnessing the picture

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有史以来最棒的策略之一。
of one of the best tactics ever used.

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这是在解放广场，国际社会
It was on Tahrir Square, where the international community

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一直担心伊斯兰教徒会在这里
was constantly frightened that the Islamists

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改变革命的性质。于是，他们安排了
will overtake the revolution. Well, they've organized

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基督教徒保护正在祈祷的穆斯林
Christians protecting Muslims, who are there praying,

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以及受到成千上万穆斯林祝福的科普特人婚礼。
Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims.

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他们改变了世界的想法，
The world has just changed the picture,

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这一切都是事前计划的。
but somebody was thinking about this previously.

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除了聚集在一起，
So there are so many things you can do instead of

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在安保人员面前大叫示威之外，
getting into one place, shouting and

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还有很多其他的斗争方式。
showing off in front of the security forces.

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事实上还有一种动态制衡也非常重要
Now there is also another very important dynamic,

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而且常被分析家忽略。
and this is a dynamic normally analytics don't see.

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这是以热情和幽默
This is dynamics between fear and apathy on one side

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化解恐惧和冷漠的动态。
and enthusiasm and humor on another side.

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它的运作方式很像电子游戏。
So it works like in a video game.

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如果恐惧指数较高，那其它状态保持不变。
You have a fear high, you have status quo.

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如果热情指数升高，恐惧就会开始下降。
You have enthusiasm higher, you see fear starting to melt.

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在第二天，你就会看到人们跑向警察，
Day two, you see people running towards police

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而不是从警察身边逃离。
instead of from the police.

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不难看出，埃及就发生了类似的变化。
In Egypt, you can tell that something is happening there.

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接下来我们说说幽默。幽默拥有巨大的力量
And then it's about humor. Humor is such a powerful

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可以改变局势，而且波兰人民的幽默感一向不错。
game-changer, and of course it was very big in Poland.

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在塞尔维亚，我们一小群疯狂的学生
And you know, we were just a small group of crazy students

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曾经组织过大型的滑稽活动。
in Serbia when we made this big skit.

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我们在主干道的中间
We put the big petrol barrel with a

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放上一个大汽油桶
portrait picture of Mr. President on it

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上面贴着总统先生的照片。桶的顶端有一个洞
in the middle of the Main Street. There was a hole on the top

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所以人们可以过来投币
so you could literally come, put a coin in,

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拿起棒球棍，给总统的脸来上一棒。
get a baseball bat, and pow, hit his face.

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声音非常响。我们坐在附近的咖啡馆喝咖啡
Sounds loud. And within the minutes, we were sitting

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观察形势发展，几分钟之内，
in a nearby cafe having coffee, and there was

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就有一群人排队投币打总统。
a queue of people waiting to do this lovely thing.

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好戏这时才刚刚开始。
Well, that's just the beginning of the show.

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警察的出现掀起了真正的高潮。
The real show starts when the police appears.

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他们会怎么做呢？逮捕我们？他们根本找不到我们。
What will they do? Arrest us? We are nowhere to be seen.

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我们在三个街区之外的咖啡馆静观其变呢。
We are three blocks away observing it from our espresso bar.

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逮捕那些带着孩子的购物者？没有道理。
Arrest the shoppers with kids? Doesn't make sense.

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也许你们猜得到，最终他们还是做了最愚蠢的事情：
Of course, you could bet they have done the most stupid thing:

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他们逮捕了那个汽油桶。
They arrested the barrel. And now the picture

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警察将被打的歪七扭八的总统头像汽油桶
of the smashed face on the barrel with the policeman

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拖向警车的画面
dragging them to the police car, that was the best day

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让报纸摄影记者们欣喜若狂。
for the photographers from newspapers that they ever will have.

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因此，我们都可以做一些力所能及的事，
So, I mean, these are the things you can do,

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而且别忘记将幽默融入其中。
and you can always use the humor.

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幽默的力量在于：独裁者们
There is also one big thing about the humor: It really hurts,

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太在意他们的形象了，幽默其实拥有着巨大的杀伤力。
because these guys really are taking themselves too seriously.

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那些统治者一旦被嘲讽，就会坐立不安。
When you start to mock them, it hurts.

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现在，人们都在谈论尊贵的因特网殿下，
Now, everybody is talking about His Majesty, the Internet,

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网络也确实是一个非常有用的工具
and it is also a very useful skill, but don't rush

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但是别急着将各种运动命名为脸书革命或者推特（微博）革命。
to label things like Facebook Revolution, Twitter Revolution.

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不要混淆工具和实质。
Don't mix tools with the substance.

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在提高效率和降低成本方面
It is true that the Internet and new media are very useful

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网络和新媒体非常有效。
in making things faster and cheaper.

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网络的匿名性则
They make it also a bit safer for the participants

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提高了参加反抗运动的安全性。
because they give the part of anonymity.

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我们现在看到的是，是因特网在另外一个方面做出的伟大贡献。
We are watching the great example of something else the Internet can do.

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它可以让暴力镇压和平示威的政府付出代价。
It can put the price tag of state-sponsored violence over nonviolent protesters.

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这是Wael Ghonim和他的朋友在埃及
This is a famous group, We are all Khaled Said,

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创建的一个著名组织，“我们都是Khaled Said”。
made by Wael Ghonim in Egypt and his friend.

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这是一个被警察殴打的年轻人受伤的面孔。
This is the mutilated face of the guy who was beaten by the police.

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他成为了公众的代表，可能就是
This is how he became the public, and this is what probably

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压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。
became the straw which broke the camel's back.

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然而因特网也有它的局限。
But here is also the bad news.

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和平示威只有在真实世界，
The nonviolent struggle is won in the real world,

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在街头才能取得胜利。如果只坐在电脑面前点击鼠标的话
in the streets. You will never change your society

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你永远也无法
towards democracy or economics

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改善社会、推进民主。
if you sit down and click.

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必须冒险，必须有活生生的人参加
There are risks to be taken and there are living people

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斗争才有可能取得胜利。
who are winning the struggle.

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再说一个重要的问题：阿拉伯世界今后会如何发展？
Well, million dollar question: What will happen in the Arab World?

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阿拉伯世界的年轻人
And though young people from the Arab World

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成功的扳倒了三个独裁者，
were pretty successful in bringing down three dictators,

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振荡了整个世界的格局，一定程度上说服了
shaking the region, kind of persuading clever kings

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约旦和摩洛哥聪明的国王大举改革，
from Jordan and Morocco doing substantial reforms,

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但最终的结果还尚未揭晓，
it is yet to be seen what will be the outcome,

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埃及和突尼斯能否成功过渡
whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will make it through the transition

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会不会有血腥的种族或者宗教冲突爆发
or this will end in bloody ethnic and religious conflict,

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面对日渐残暴、已经造成上千人死亡
whether the Syrians will maintain nonviolent discipline,

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的暴力镇压，叙利亚人民
faced with the brutal daily violence

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能否坚持不动用武力
which kills thousands already,

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还是说他们会陷入武装斗争
or they will slip into violent struggle

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引起一场惨烈的内战。
and make ugly civil war.

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这些革命是否能引领国家向民主过渡
Will these revolutions be whole like through the transitions

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它们的胜利果实会不会被军方
to democracy or be overtaken by military

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或者各种极端分子攫取？我们无法预测。
or extremists of all kinds? We cannot tell.

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发生在西方社会的抗议也是如此
Same works for the Western sector, where you can see

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有很多激愤的年轻人四处抗议
all of these excited young people protesting around the world,

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一会儿占领这个，一会儿占领那个。
occupying this, occupying that.

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他们会引领世界的潮流吗？
Are they going to become the world wave?

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他们是会用自己的能力、热情和策略
Are they going to find their skills, their enthusiasm,

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去追寻理想，推动改革
and their strategy to find what they really want

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还是会继续
and push for the reform, or will they just stay

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抱怨他们憎恨的无数现象？
complaining about the endless list of the things they hate?

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这两者有云泥之别。
This is the difference between two towns.

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数据显示出什么样的发展趋势呢？
Now, what [do] the statistics have?

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我的朋友Maria Stephan的书
My friend's book, Maria Stephan's book,

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探讨了与暴力和非暴力斗争有关的大量问题
talks a lot about violent and nonviolent struggle,

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也包含着一些惊人的数据。
and there are some shocking data.

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过去35年中
If you look at the last 35 years

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在不同的国家一共发生了67次
and different social transitions from dictatorship to democracy,

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从独裁到民主的社会变革
you will see that out of 67 different cases,

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其中有50次是通过非暴力斗争实现的
in 50 of these cases it was nonviolent struggle

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因此，非暴力斗争能起到非常关键的作用。
which was the key power.

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从这个角度来看，当今世界正在发生的事情值得关注。
This is one more reason to look at this phenomenon.

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从这个角度来看，年轻一代值得关注，
This is one more reason to look at the Generation Epsilon,

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我相信他们有希望
enough for me to give them credit and hope

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用自己的能力和勇气
that they will find their skills and their courage

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通过非暴力斗争
to use the nonviolent struggle

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解决一部分
and thus fix at least a part of the mess

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我们这代人给世界带来的问题。
our generation is making in this world.

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谢谢。（掌声）
Thank you. (Applause)