flop play this is hopefully the street
where simplification really kicks in and
you're going to really make dramatic
changes to your game and see how easy
poker can be if you think about it from
the perspective of simplifications so
we're first going to talk about the
signature technique of simplification
which is betting small which is
hopefully an idea that we've already
talked about a little bit in previous
videos and you kind of have a sense of
why it is so good but let's talk about
exactly the nuts and bolts of this idea
why do we range under bet the easy of
betting small with our range is close to
the evie of betting a complex strategy
that a human can't use in the first
place so let's look at this example
it's a sinker based pot the button
raises about 51% hands and the big blind
defends about 25% of hands and the flop
comes jack eight three on the right is a
mixed complex strategy if we allow peel
solver to bet one-third two-thirds pot
or check back and this will yield thirty
nine dollars and fifteen cents out of a
sixty five dollar pot and so the first
thing hopefully you can recognize is
that this strategy is just way too
complex for any human to use and so when
we're arguing that oh we should play a
mixed strategy so we can capture as much
Eevee as possible compared to GTO you
can see that it's very likely that in
trying to recreate the strategy you're
going to make a lot of mistakes and then
in those mistakes you're probably going
to lose a lot of that theoretical evie
in the first place however if you just
bet your entire range for one third of
the pot which we're gonna call from now
on depolarize 33 you're gonna make
thirty eight dollars and seventy eight
cents which is a huge huge chunk of the
Eevee that this really complicated
strategy guarantees in the first place
so if you can find all of these spots
where you can use to simplify strategy
and still capture 98.5 percent of the
Eevee of this super complex strategy
obviously you're gonna be dominating
your opponents who are gonna be making
tons of mistakes trying to recreate
complex strategies in their own game
you should also be betting a third
because people don't know how to face it
and mathematically it's much more
difficult to face so when you're facing
a bet the first thing you should do is
look at your pot odds and then calculate
how many hands you should fold facing
those pot odds
so when you're facing a two-thirds bet
you should fold about 45% of the time
when you're facing a one-third bet you
should fold about 25% of the time and
it's much easier in practice to identify
what hands are in the bottom 45% your
range then what hands are in the bottom
25% arrange so let's look at what an
optimal strategy looks like if we bet
2/3 or check our opponent should raise
us with some of his draws and his two
pairs and some of his top pair good
kicker and he should fold his bottom 45%
hands which are pretty much gonna be all
of his weaker ace king and queen high
and hands that don't have a pair or a
gun shot which seems to make a lot of
sense and I think that those are ranges
that generally your opponents are going
to be able to recreate over the table
without much difficulty especially if
your opponents are relatively
experienced however if you look at the
correct defense against a depolarized 33
bet it's a lot more aggressive and it
forces your opponent to raise a lot more
often and fold a lot more however if you
look at the correct strategy facing the
1/3 bet size your opponent needs to
raise about 24% of the time he needs to
call about 50% of the time it needs to
fold about 24% of the time and so
finding that bottom 24% is actually
quite difficult he's still gonna fold a
lot of hands like seven-five these kind
of low hands that have no drawers or
redraws but he's still gonna have to
call with hands like King six king five
King four and are they really gonna call
those hands in real life are they really
going to raise hands like King six
suited some of the time I think
interphase Jack five student some of the
time King three students of the time
there really aren't going to so you're
just gonna pick up a ton of money
because people are not playing nearly
that aggressive the average tag player
probably is gonna be over folding
between seven and twelve percent of the
time across various poor textures and at
higher stakes people are gonna over fold
less because they're gonna be a lot more
used to playing against this style
however even when they over fold up to
seven percent of the time you're gonna
be picking up you know 16 big blinds per
hundred absolutely for free because your
opponents don't have the theoretical
groundwork to be able to defend
correctly against you so if we look at
how the average tag defense against the
deep pool 33 he's gonna raise about 12%
of the time I'm just gonna fold about
34% of the time and this discrepancy
between how intuitive play looks versus
how optimal play looks is usually gonna
cost your opponent 16 big blinds 400 and
so it seems like a very very small leak
from your opponent's perspective because
he's just you're generally folding hands
that have very very low equity but in
the grand scheme of things he's just
gonna be slowly bleeding money that he
can't really detect and that's also
really important because when you're
putting to have leaks that you obviously
are exploiting they can generally tell
that you're trying to exploit them there
for example if a guy folds two three
bets a lot and you just three bet his
face off he's gonna stop folding two
three bets
however when people very subtly over
fold by five to 12 percent in a given
spot it's very difficult for your
opponent to detect that leak in their
game unless someone else points it out
to them or if you're a live player you
might not be able to ever tell you have
that leak because you don't have a
database to see the exact frequency in
which you're responding so it's very
possible that you can just bet a third
of the time and your opponents are never
going to realize they are playing really
really poorly against it also one of the
beautiful things about betting a third
100% of the time is that you can always
do it in a three bet pot so if you've
constructed lit your linear three
betting range so that it's strictly for
value even when the flop comes really
terrible for you it's still going to be
a great spot where you can simplify your
game and deep pool 33 so here we three
bet as the big blind with about 18% of
hands and the button defense in position
with 17% of hands and the flop comes
really good for the preflop caller Queen
ten eight that's very middling really
good for the caller what is the AV of
deep holing 33 what's 133 in
for teapots so it's definitely more than
half so we definitely are gonna be
pushing an advantage here even when
we're betting hands as bad as like fours
and fives and sixes that really have no
business betting here on the flop
however if you look at the Evie of a
more complicated strategy it's only
gonna make 134 dollars in a two hundred
forty dollar pot so the amount of Evie
that you are sacrificing by playing
super simply is not very much at all
also polarizer ranges are more
complicated to play both preflop and
post flop because it's a lot more messy
to distribute all your value hands and
Bluffs in a really balanced manner and
again you're often gonna have a lot of
leaks that you probably can't detect
especially if you don't have a database
of your own play and so when you play
linear three betting ranges and then you
play a depolarized bets on the flop you
get to play this super simplified game
that locks in this 133 versus if you
play to this polarised three betting
range not only is it more complicated
but then when you have to play 2/3 and
check on the flop which is obviously a
more complicated strategy you're only
gonna pick up 108 dollars so not only
does the linear three betting range and
simpler simplified strategy not only
does the linear three betting range and
simplified strategy much easier to play
over the board but as you can see it's
gonna pick up a significant amount more
money when the flop comes really really
terrible for you as the preload raiser