早上好，欢迎来到minervani good morning and welcome to the minervani
专用接入培训室 private access training room
鲍勃·魏斯曼，能不能帮我 bob weissman if you could do a quick
请举手 raising of your hand
让我知道你听得清清楚楚 to let me know that you hear me loud and clear
希望大家周末愉快 hope everybody had a nice weekend
看起来很多人都举手了 and looks like a lot of hands are being raised
如果我们能做同样的事情 and also if we could do the same thing
欢迎马克·里奇进入房间 to welcome mark richie into the room
早上好,马克 good morning mark
我没听到马克·里奇的声音 I'm not hearing mark richie
我一定是输了，迈克对不起 I must have lost as mike sorry
抱歉，伙计们，让我来，迈克，我在这里 sorry guys said let me mike I'm ute here
之前每个人都 before everybody
有趣的是 the funny thing is
我喜欢人们 I liked how people
抢先一步，已经举手了 jump the gun and already were raising their hand
即使他根本不是 even though he's not even being
还说 spoke yet
啊很好 ah that's good
这是第一次10跳 that was a 10 jump first
是的，我们抓到你了，抓到你了 yeah we caught you we caught you alright
这些也会被移交给我们 and that's also handed off to get started with
今天和马克·米内瓦尼的谈话 today's session with mark minervani
早上好,马克 good morning mark
大家早上好，希望大家周末愉快 okay good morning everyone hope you had a good weekend
市场当然是罗琳 market of course is rowling here
早上跑步 running up in the morning
我们总是有风险的 what we always have the risk of
当你像这样停下的时候 when you gap up like this and
然后一大早就开始工作 and start taking off right early in the day
你得到了一个逆转，你卡住了 that you get a reversal and you get stuck
到一些痘 into some breakouts
可能有点 maybe being a little
这里过于激进 overly aggressive here
加上一只鹰已经涨了7%了 bumping something like an eagle that's already up 7%
在这里添加名字 and adding names here
但你知道，一切都很顺利 but things are acting pretty well you know
我们甚至有一些这样的自然反应 we've got even some of these natural reactions
就像回到这里的巴黎 like an aris coming back here
很好 pretty nicely
阿什在这里有个很好的突破 ash has a pretty nice break out here
有点深蹲，这是 a little bit of a squat which is
你知道在这里，人们总是期待着你 you know to be expected from time to time here
但大多数股票表现正常 but most of the stocks are acting normal
甚至像PRCT这样的东西 even something like a prct
哪一个是现在总是回到收支平衡 which is always back to break even now
和向下 and down
今天早上有百分之六点五 six and a half percent here this morning which
可能觉得 may feel like
现在最重要的是演戏 big deal right now it's acting
这很正常，只是回到了爆发点 quite normal it's just coming back to the breakout
如果我们能拍个不错的中距离 if we could get a decent closed mid range
关了，太好了 closed that would be great
所以我们会看到，有些会失败 so we'll see I mean some of these are gonna fail
他们会阻止你出去的 they're gonna stop you out
你知道记住 you know remember
一半的交易停止了 half the trade stopped out
所以不是说你不会被拦下来 so it's not like you're not gonna get stopped out
所以你必须预料到这一点 so you have to expect that
最重要的是保留这些损失 the main thing is to keep those losses
相对来说比较小 you know relatively small
以及与收益的关系 and relation to the gains
今天早上，FLNG当然是一个惊喜 flng of course was a nice surprise this morning
在这里把 just ripping here
我期待的是也许 I was looking forward to maybe
冷静点，往后拉，放进去 calm down a bit here and pull back and put in that
主元，这样我们就可以添加了 pivot so we can add to it
相反，它是直接进入比赛 instead it's right off to the races
当然，就像我说的 and of course like I said
所以你有一个小的位置 okay so you have a small position
还有一支腾飞的股票 and a stock that takes off
这总比没有位置好 that's better than no position
这就是为什么我们登上了这艘船 that's why of course we boarded that coming out here
如果能设置好，那就更好了 if it set that would have been even better
但这是一个很棒的小举动 but this is a great great little move here
所以你就吃了一些 so you know just taken some
这是一些快速动作的提示 tips off the table on some of these quick moves
然后把剩下的留到更大的一步 and then holding the remainder for a bigger move
试图融资 to try to finance
或者资助风险 or finance the risk
BBT显然是投资组合中的怪物 bbt is obviously the monster in the portfolio that just
很好地一直往上磨 really nicely just keeps just grinding its way higher
我现在只打算卖掉它 I would only look to sell this at this point
如果它有和的话 probably if it had and
它开始加速前进的速度 it started to accelerate its rate of advance
你得到了最广泛的传播 and you got the widest spread
你真的是从这里开始往上跑的 you really started running up from here
也许你知道 or maybe you know
我会在这里停一下 I'll back stop it at some point here
当然，我们已经把它还原了两次 but of course we've already reduced it twice
所以我们已经确定了利润 so we've nailed down the profits in it
现在又想更进一步 and now trying to get a bigger move on that
上个季度的位置 last quarter position
这是关于它的 that's about it
让我们进入 let's go into
一些问题 some questions
好吧 okay
作家尼尔是马克里奇的最后一场比赛 author neil is last game for mark richie
如果你上周加到你的第LNTH位置 if you added to your lnth position last week
周四或周五 Thursday or Friday
如果你做了你该做的事 and if you did what was your stop
我添加了这个 I added to this
不会持续 not last
等一下，我们走吧 hold up here we just go
在 on the
26号，所以我们买下了它，在23号做平台 26th so we bought it and doing the platform in the 23rd
正确的标记，然后 correct mark and then
我在26号又加了一点 I added a little more on the 26th as it sort of
对不起，所以我想但是一个礼物 excuse me 27 so 26 I wanted to but a gaft
第二天，它又回来了 and then when it sort of came back through the next day
我添加了 I added to the
我给这个位置加了一点 I added a little bit to the position
当你得到反转恢复时完全没有 when you got the reversal recovery exactly no
好的，你的站是 okay and your stop was
就在23号的同一站 at the same stop then as what the 23rd was
或者你会 or did you would
有一个不同的站点添加 have a different stop for that add
是啊，我走错站了 yeah I'm staggering the stop
使用 using
通常我有时会用交错停顿 normally I'm always using staggered stop to sometimes
你知道的，就是围绕头寸进行交易 you know just trading around the position
对于bump so for the bump
你们知道大概是在26度左右 you know roughly around the low the 26
然后是初始位置 and then the initial position
停下来休息 stop for the rest
但这要看事情的发展了 but you know depending on how things go
我总是愿意调整这些 I'm always willing to adjust those
好吧 all right
马克 mark
你谈到使用负荷表的问题 question that you talk about using the load sheets
通常在较大的股票名称中 typically in the larger cap names
在一些ipo案例中也是如此 and in some ipo cases
但我们一直在做一些常规绑定 but we've been doing some binding regular
引用过去一周的名人名言 quote quote regular names this past week
你能评论一下吗 can you please comment about
使用低作弊入口时的首选项 your preferences when you use the low cheat entry
我不知道常规是什么意思，但是 I'm not sure I know what regular means but
我们能举一些例子吗 can we get some examples because
有些我不确定 some I'm not sure
是低作弊还是作弊 have been low cheats as opposed to cheats
这有很大的不同 and there's a there's a big difference
还有低水平的作弊者 and the low cheats
当你在更低的三分之一处 when you're down in the lower one third
你就有了这样的供应 and you've got that supply to work with
在左边 on the left side
当你和 again when you get with the
真的超级帽子 really mega caps
你知道他们什么时候 you know when they get
很明显，他们正在突破新高 obvious and they're breaking out the new highs
每个人都在关注它 it's on everybody's radar
所以我尽量买底价最低的 so I try to buy them as low as I can in the base
你知道，你可以赚点钱 there's you know some money to be made
它们没有那么大的上升潜力 they don't have as big upside potential
一般来说 generally speaking
现在一切都是平等的 all things being equal now
你知道骗子或把手是什么意思 you know a cheat or a handle really is
差不多是一样的 the same thing pretty much
你不会得到 you're not going to get
通常会有更多的供应 usually a whole lot more supply
在上三分之一垒的中间三分之一 in the mid third of the base as you are the upper 3rd
当然，除非你的股价再创新高 except of course if you're breaking up to new highs
你知道没有供应了 you know there's no supply
但它通常是最小的 but it's usually minimal
当你进入真正低的床单，那就是 when you get into the real low sheets that's where
我们以前叫它 it's what we used to call it a
专业人士由专家由它被称为专家由 professional by an expert by it was called an expert by
因为你必须这么做 because you had to have
更多的技能来识别它 more skill to identify it
处理供给问题等等 and to deal with the supply and so forth
但是看 but look
我不会去尝试确定差异 I wouldn't get into trying to determine the difference
就在他们开始的时候 you know just when they set up
把你知道的特征放在 place the traits you know if it's a
如果是更小的名字 if it's a smaller cap name
你知道，也许你 you know maybe you
你按金字塔的形式进入 you pyramid into it
而不是坐上你的位置 you know instead of taking your full position
你只是这有点像马克 you just and that's something like mark
这是你应该做的 that's what you would do right
如果你来自低水平的骗子或者 if you're from a low cheat or
一般来说 generally speaking
你知道什么时候事情行得通 you know when things are working
你会遇到野猪问题的 you're gonna go full boar problem
这些低欺骗 those low cheats
但如果你一开始或大部分时间都知道 but if you know in the beginning or most of the time
你要把它用在更小的位置上 you're gonna be using it for a smaller position
正确地建立 to build in right
FM和g就是一个很好的例子 exactly that fm and g's a good example
你知道这个设置本身不是 you know that that set up by itself is not
你知道 you know
即使低作弊率不是教科书上的低作弊率 even if for a low cheat was not a textbook low cheat
那只是一个你可以开始工作的地方 it was just a place you can start a position
我在一群人开始打断我的谈话时就已经料到了 I was expecting it in a group that started interrupting
在一个强大的群体中 in a strong group
真正强大的 really strong
是的，我们被假定为无罪 yeah we're given the benefit of the doubt
因为这个群体的情况开始好转 because things are starting to take off in that group
说吧，这就是为什么我会像闪电一样 go ahead which is exactly why I'd be lightning up
今天，因为我仍然 today because I'm still
正常的反应可能仍然是这样 a normal reaction might still be for this
做你画的东西 to do what you drew in
但它可能会回到过去，说现在的高点 but it might then pull back to say the old highs now
但是不管怎样 but either way right
从这里开始 you start a position there
因为我很期待你画的东西 because I'm expecting what you drew in
然后会变得更有攻击性 and then going to get more aggressive
就像你说的课本一样 well like exactly like you said textbook
幸好你的仓位小 good thing you have a small position
因为这玩意刚开始流行起来 because this thing just took right off
是的 yeah
你知道的 yeah so again you know
所以我会怎么处理低作弊率的人 so what I would do with the low cheats
我就 I would just
把它更多地看成是仓位大小的一个函数 look at it as more a function of your position sizing
而不是 as opposed to
担心你是否应该避开基础 worrying whether you should be avoiding basis
无论是大帽子还是轮辐 whether it's a big cap or spokat
这是非常危险的 that's very dangerous
当我说危险的时候，我在思考 thinking when I say dangerous
以错过一个机会的方式 in the way of missing out an opportunity
当你开始尝试像那样取得资格时 when you start trying to qualify like that
你知道你可能有一个市场 you know you might just have a market where
都是些低级的作弊手段 just a whole bunch of low cheat setup
这就是技术主题 and that's the technical theme
你想玩你知道的 and you want to play that you know
只是增量 just be incremental
你知道从较小的仓位开始 you know start with smaller positions
当事情进展顺利时，就加大力度 when things are working step it up
你们必须消除很多噪音 you guys have to eliminate a lot of the noise
很多想法 a lot of the thinking
你得试着摆脱 you got to try to get away from
所有的过度思考和尝试 all the overthinking and trying to
解决一切 figure everything out
你不需要把每件事都弄清楚 you don't have to figure everything out
你所要做的就是学会如何看懂这张图表 all you have to do is learn how to read the chart
然后当车尾 and be a caboose
和增量 and be incremental
管理风险与回报的关系 and manage risk in relation to reward
这就是你所要做的 that's all you have to do
好的，其他的事情都会水到渠成 okay everything else will fall into place
但当我说这就是你要做的 but when I say that's all you have to do
这是一个很多 that's a lot
学习如何有效地做到这一点 and itself to learn how to do that effectively
要做好这件事 and to do that well
所以要集中精力 so concentrate on that
你就不用担心其他的了 and you won't have to worry about all these other
我认识的事你认识的人 things I know people you know
你想把它做好，你也想 you want to get it right and you want to
拥有所有这些保证并知道原因吗 have all this surety and know the reasons why
但这才是真正的杀手 but that really that's the killer
这就是凶手要做的事 that's the killer getting into all that
所有这些细节都是你做事的动力 all that minutia is what's gonna make you do things
不一致 not consistent
错误地反问自己 wrongly inversely and question yourself and
该走弯路的时候就走弯路 and zag when you should zig
在该走弯道的时候走弯道，等等 and zig when you should zig and so forth
这与这里的一个问题直接相关 that ties directly into a question here
史蒂夫问的 from steve where he's asking
在当前的市场环境下 in the current market environment
并尝试将渐进曝光纳入其中 and trying to incorporate progressive exposure
在评估这个实时环境 in assessing this real time environment
他是一个转述，这是一个很长的问题 he's a paraphrase and it's a very lengthy question
但他分享了这一点 but he's sharing that
很多股票似乎都处于平衡状态 a lot of stocks seem to be working on balance
与此同时 and at the same time having
在空仓页面有1820个空仓 1820 positions open on the open positions page
或者添加很多名字 or adding a lot of names
有什么问题 what's the question
是啊，我正试着下去呢 yeah I'm trying to get down there to it
在这些问题上 on over the questions
很好，请在问题中表扬 nice please praise things in questions
我们的论文没人想听 with the dissertations we can nobody wants to hear
我想我想我想听他们说 I would like I would like that I want to hear them
但其他人不知道，成员们不知道 but nobody else does the members don't
我想增加更多的曝光率 I would like to add more exposure
但恐怕是那个 but I'm afraid that one
糟糕的是，他们会给我压力 bad they will put me under pressure
迫使我提前收摊 force me to close positions prematurely
和运行 and running cut
当你建议服用一些 when you recommend either taken some
提前取出部分利润，为开盘时的风险融资 taken out some profit early to finance the risk on open
交易或收紧止损 trades or tightening up the stops
所以总体风险还是可以接受的 so overall risk remains acceptable
好吧，你看，这里有很多问题 okay you see no there's a lot of problems there
贾斯汀，你现在看到了 you see now justin that
你说的那些话 on all those other words you said
我什么也猜不出来 I couldn't gather anything out of it
但你说 but then you said
三个关键词小词 three key little words
该知道的我都知道了 and I know everything I need to know
关于你和发生的事 about you and what's going on
你首先说的是害怕 you said first of all afraid
这是一个很大的问题 that's a huge problem right there
你不应该害怕任何东西，好吗 you shouldn't be afraid of anything alright
你应该定位并承担风险 you should be positionizing and taking risk
你可以接受的 that you are okay with
如果你这样做 so if you do that
你不用担心我会告诉你该怎么做 you don't have to worry about me telling you what to do
不是因为你害怕 because not because you're afraid
现在你想让马克·明特维内告诉你该怎么做 now you want mark mintervene to tell you what to do
这样你就能承担责任了 so you can absorb your responsibility
这不是解决问题的方法 and that's just not the way it works okay
你得自己学会怎么做 you're gonna have to learn how to do this yourself
做出这些决定的依据是 and make those decisions based on
你的恐惧 your fear all right
这种担忧需要通过调整仓位来缓和 that fear needs to be tempered with position sizing
和你停止 and your stops
以及你投入的资金 and the amount of capital that you put
以及资本总额 and the overall amount of capital
所以如果你害怕 so if you're afraid
从少量的钱开始 start with a small amount of money
不要让贪婪压倒风险 and don't let greed overtake the risk
你根本无法忍受 that you don't have a tolerance for
好吧，事情是这样的 okay because here's what happens
人真正的 people are truly
害怕，他们在玩弄被吓到的钱，然后 fearful and they're playing with scared money and then
但他们变得贪婪 but they get greedy
所以他们看到了机会，他们想要收益 so they see the opportunity and they want the gain
所以他们去了，他们忽略了 so they go and they ignore
这种恐惧，他们忽视了这种风险 that fear and they ignore that risk
他们对那些太大的头寸进行了调整 and they put position sizes on that are too big
他们的资本投资太多了 they're investing too much of their capital
这对他们来说压力太大了 that's too much pressure for them
猜猜会发生什么 and guess what happens
他们做各种愚蠢的决定是因为 they make all kinds of dumb decisions because
力 force
因为你给他的致命弱点施加了压力 because you put it puts pressure on that achilles heel
你只是在提高你在提高标准 and you're just raising you're raising the bar
你这是把自己放进高压锅里 you're putting yourself in a pressure cooker
所以你得学会这方面的技巧这需要时间 so you got to get skilled at this it takes time
主要的 one of the main
我看到几乎每个交易者都会犯的错误 mistakes that I see almost every trader makes
他们只是想要太多太快吗 is they just want too much too fast
他们太没耐心了 they're just so impatient
他们现在就想要，他们很害怕 and they want it now and they're afraid
你知道，股票是先走一步的 you know stocks take a first
他们非常害怕买股票 they're scared to death to buy a stock
然后一切都起飞了 you know then everything takes off
如果不买股票，他们怕得要死 and they're scared to death not to buy a stock
然后他们就撤了，他们害怕抓住他们 then they pull back and they're scared to hold them
这只是一种恐惧 it just one fear
接二连三的恐惧之后 after the next fear after the next fear
这加剧了下一个恐惧 that compounds the next fear
因为现在你被阻止了 because now you get stopped out
现在你又不敢回去了 and now you're afraid to go back in
然后就变成了一场灾难 and it just it turns into a catastrophe
这都是因为你一开始就没有规则 all because you didn't have start off with rules
你没有从指导方针开始 you didn't start off with guidelines
建造的东西 and things that were built
围绕着恐惧，围绕着什么 around those fears and around what
你的宽容就是你的 what your tolerance is what you
当你开始的时候 and when you first start
你的容忍度会很低 your tolerance is going to be low
你知道会很低 you know it's going to be low
你不会有那种忍耐力 you're not going to have the type of tolerance
因为你没有信心 because you don't have the confidence
即使你有足够的耐受性 and even if you do have the tolerance
可以看到速度有多快 you see how quickly
突然之间，宽容就消失了 all of a sudden that tolerance evaporates when
事情对你不利 things go against you
而你没有信心 and you don't have the confidence
因为你没有经验 because you haven't had the experience
以及利润和成功的记录 and the back log of profits and success to know that
嘿，这很正常 hey this is normal
我知道我在做什么 I know what I'm doing here
你知道你不知道自己在做什么 you know you don't know what you're doing
因为你做的时间还不够长 because you haven't done it long enough
我知道这个答案有点夸张，但你知道的 I know it's a big answer but you know
你刚才说的那些话很有说服力 very very telling in those words that you just said
你告诉我 you tell me just
给我几个句子，让我看看你的作品集 give me a few sentences and show me your portfolio
我能看出一个人的很多事 and I can tell a lot about somebody
所以事实上，马克，你是 so matter of fact mark you were the
那不是你 wasn't that something you
我们正在谈论 were talking about just
最近你和我在一起的时候 recently when you were here with me
我是是的 I was yeah
我是说，如果你想听的话，我可以听听那件轶事 I mean I could hear that anecdote if you want
我第一次遇见你 I first met you
对的，不，I that's right no I
而马克说 while mark said
说一些事情 said some things
关于我的网络研讨会 about me on a webinar after that contest
我很幸运赢了 I was fortunate enough to win
10年12年前 10 years 12 years ago
是的，我说，这应该很有趣 yeah and I said well this should be interesting
这家伙根本不了解我 this guy doesn't really know me
他说了一些关于我的事 and he said a few things about me that were
我就像有人在看我的手相 I was like somebody was reading my palm
当我们在一起的时候，他说 and so then when we got together he said
听着，我见识过你的特点 look I've seen your traits
我很了解你 I know a lot about you
你知道的，这就打开了一个 and you know then that just opened a whole
我的眼睛到一个完整的水平 my eyes to a whole level of
心理情绪所有这些 the psychology emotions all the things that
交易反映了你是谁 the trading is a reflection of who you are
你可以控制这一切，因为你 and you have control over that because you
控制风险 control how much you risk
你可以控制你卖的地方你可以控制你买的东西 you control where you sell you control what you buy
当你买的时候 and when you buy
你觉得自己无法控制 you feel like you don't have control
因为你还不知道如何运用这种力量 because you just don't know how to use that power yet
但是你有很强的控制力 but you have tremendous control
但结果是你让贪婪 but what happens is you let the greed
而你让这些情绪的东西 and you let the emotions of these things that are
不要为你的毁灭服务 don't serve you destroy
那些规则和纪律 those rules and that discipline
这就是你必须要做的 and that's where you have to
看清楚你的情绪到底怎么了 see clearly as to what's going on with you emotionally
并且有这些界限 and and have those boundaries
不能再强调这个很重要吗 can't stress this anymore a very important
问得好 good question that you fostered
你应该知道这个讨论，因为它非常重要 you know this discussion because it's super important
我要插进去说 I'm gonna jump in here and say
就像我做的 as I do
对于那些参加过贸易硕士课程的人 for those who have attended the master trade program
这就是金块的价值 that's as golden nugget as a golden nugget gets
如果你不感激 and if you don't appreciate that
稍后再听一遍录音 listen to the recording to this again later
你会得到心脏 and you will really take the heart
什么是钥匙 what is a key
对很多人来说都是突破对你们很多人来说 breakthrough for a lot of people a lot of you
类似的评论，虽然马克上的差距，肯是问 similar comment though mark on the gap up ken is asking
开盘10分钟内，大量股票上涨 a lot of stocks broke out in the first 10min
只能迅速逆转 only to quickly reverse
克制一下会安全吗 would it be safe to refrain from
前10分钟交易 trading for the first 10min
这种行动是针对石油股的吗 is this type of action specific for oil stocks
不，应该是 no it would be
避免这样做是安全的 it'll be safe to refrain from
追逐差价扩大的股票 chasing stocks that are gapping and are extended
从他们的观点来看 from their by points
好吧 all right
如果它们通过了一个点 if they're coming through a by point properly
它们不是逐点延伸的 and they're not extended from the by point
那么交易就没有问题了 then there's no problem with trading
而且就在露天 and right on the open
现在你知道有时候你会 now you know sometimes you get
它打开了，然后 it opens up and and
股票价格下跌，价格反转 and stocks are taken off and they reverse
但这给了你很有价值的信息 but that's giving you very valuable information
你又知道 you know again
我们在这里看到类似PRCT的东西 we see something like a prct here that's you know
现在我要看看它是如何结束的 down now alright so now I got to see how this closes
这不是真的 not that this is really
和刚才的例子一样 the same example that we just
我刚才说了，但我想看看这是怎么结束的 I just said but I want to see how this closes
这会给我提供很有价值的信息 that's going to give me very valuable information
对，你们知道其中一些名字 right some of these names that you know
开始新的一天 started off up for the day
类似于BPT something like a bpt
哪些石油库存开始上涨 which some of these oil stocks started taken off
然后他们撤退了 then they pulled back
它只走了两步，现在变得更强了 it did a little two step and now it got stronger
这真是一个伟大的行动 this really is great action
这就告诉了我那天早上的情况 you know that tells me how it handled that morning
间隙和拉回等等 a gap and pull back and so forth
当然其中有些是更小的间隙 of course some of these are some smaller gaps
这是ati so that's ati
我有一个警报设置，它真的设置好了 see I got an alert set and it's actually set
在这个高度以上 above this high right here
你知道这又是一个值得怀疑的问题 you know here's one again where it's questionable
我是说你可以 I mean you could
你可以从这里开始买 you could start trying to buy it right here
你知道你可以等到 you know you can wait till
从28到17的这个高度 to get through this high right here at 28 17
或者你可以 or you can you know
等它再完美一点 wait for it to be a bit more perfect
也许在里面待上一两天 and maybe go inside for a day or two
然后从那里出来 and come out from there
但这是你的欺骗区域 but that's there's your cheat area
你知道这是一种欺骗 you know that that's setting up as a as a cheat there
这就是我正在看的东西 so just something I'm watching here
如果我不在这个俱乐部，我可能会在这里买 I may if I wasn't on this club might be buying it here
我不知道，我想我会 I don't know I think I'm gonna
我先等一会儿，看看我们怎么 I'm gonna hold off for a minute and just see how we we
都会在这里 transpires here
今天剩下的时间，因为我们来早了 for the rest of the day here because we're early
现在情况有点逆转 and things are reversing a bit
但我想我们还是可以 but I think we may still
力量在这里 strength in here
在我看来，市场真的想要更高的价格 the market is really looking to me like it wants higher
我现在在推特上看到的所有人都看空了 everybody I see now on Twitter they're all bearish
所有人都认为我们在往下走 everybody thinks we're going lower
他们不相信第一次集会 they're not trusting this first rally
我认为我们至少有一个交易反弹 I think that we at least have a trading rally here
股票的走势 the way the stocks are acting
但你知道这是可能的 but you know it could
我的意思是它可能是不稳定的 it could be volatile I mean
我们可以在后面猛拉一把 we could get some sharp pull back here
所以我要稍微慢一点 so I'm just gonna slow down a little bit
现在我们已经添加了所有这些位置 now that we've added all these positions
On e g l e on e g l e
德克想问你能不能重新考虑一下 derk is asking if you could review the criteria for
是的 yeah
回顾一下碰撞位置的标准 review the criteria for bumping the position
从周五的高点上方有突破吗 was at a breakout above the high from Friday
好吧 well
我们的标准是，这确实有效 the criteria is just that this really held up quite
你知道，它就在这里 well you know it came out right here
我们是31号上船的 we boarded on the 31st
你蹲下，你就能逆转复苏 you squat it you got a reversal recovery
现在它来了 now it came
进入区间，并试图向更高的位置移动 into the range and it's trying to move higher
只是表演得很棒 it's just acting great
以下是我今天的想法 and here's what was my thinking today
我买了一件小东西我是对的 I bought a little thing I am right
我在想，现在开始了 and I'm thinking and which is now starting
它还撑得住一点，你知道，买了它 it's holding up a little bit you know bought it
让我们回到这个范围 pulling back in the range here
这是一个先裂开然后又回来的 this is one that gapped out first and came back in
现在我把杆子买回来了 and now I bought the pole back
在这里寻找反转复苏 looking for a reversal recovery here
希望能在今天结束的时候 hopefully by the end of the day
我在看splk，想买splk I was looking at splk thinking about buying splk
但我对自己说你知道吗 but I said to myself you know what
为什么不买表现最好的那只呢 why not just buy the one that's acting the best yeah
老鹰很漂亮，在这里表现得最好 and eagle is pretty is acting pretty much the best here
就我而言 as far as I'm concerned
所以我说，你知道的，不是买 so I said you know just instead of buying it
在这个群体中变得多样化 getting diversified in this group
买了几个货主 and buying a couple of shippers
你知道我已经买了另一个了 you know I already bought another one
再来一点 a little bit of another one
让我们在这里撞一下这只鹰 let's bump this eagle a bit here
现在我起床的时候一般不喜欢颠簸 now I don't generally like to bump when I'm up
你知道的，百分之七十八 you know seven eight ten percent
因为现在你知道我到了 because now you know I'm at a point where
10%的涨幅已经抵消了相当多的风险 10% gain is paying for the risk pretty much
一般来说 generally speaking
百分之一千零一十二 ten twelve percent
所以我已经接近盈利了 so I'm already getting close to a profitable
如果你愿意的话，向上的目标 upside target if you will
所以它降低了均值或均值 so it lowers my average or high
提高我的平均价格，降低价格 raises my average price and takes that down
但是再一次 but again
我们从市场的低点开始 we're starting off here from the lows of the market
这个时候如果你要 this is the time where if you're gonna
把它们配对这是你想做的 pair them it up this is when you want to do it
你知道 you know what
离基地不太远 it's not too far from the base
你会第一次长出痘痘 and you're getting those first breakouts
这也不是一门完美的科学 so again it's not a perfect science
你知道我为什么要这么做吗 you know why am I doing it part of its feel that
就像股票的走势一样 like the way the stocks acting
你知道，这是 you know and it's
似乎 it seems like the
现在是这个组织的领导者之一 one of the leaders in the group right now
在这 in it
你看，我们也在大多数强大的团体中 and you see we're in most of the strong groups too
你知道的，这不是通过任何小组合作 you know which has not been by doing any group work
仅仅是通过股票设置 just simply by the stock setups
我们有几个理由 we got a couple of reasons
我们关注的是最近的几次ipo some couple recent ipos we're looking at here
或者我们像鸢尾花一样拥有 or we own like an iris
所以我们得到了一个很好的 so we got a good sort of a good
市场的横截面 cross section here at the market
好吧 all right
维克多说 victor is saying
你说准备好面对小溪的失败是什么意思 what do you mean by being prepared for a brook failure
并迅速退出市场 and moving fast out of the market
意思是没有反应吗 does that mean not react
没有考虑到我们已经有了止损 not respecting the stop loss we already have though
在他们停止之前开始调整位置 and start trimming positions before they hit stops
我们该如何评估 how can we assess that
说, says that
我的意思是对突然的失败做好准备 well I mean being prepared for abrupt failure
我不知道还能怎么解释 and and is I don't know how else to explain that
我的意思是 I mean
我的意思是什么?我的意思就是我所说的 what do I mean by that I mean exactly what I said
准备好面对不利的情况 be prepared for things to turn against you
所以要知道你的出站点在哪里 so know where your outs are know where your stops are
知道你的最大限额是多少然后标记 know what your maximum draw down is and and mark
马克·理查德 mark richard
你应该和这个谈谈 you should talk to this
因为你那天说过这件事 because you spoke about this the other day about
我忘了，有人问了一个问题，然后你 um I forget but somebody asked a question and then you
你的回答是你知道知道 your response was you know to know
你的总收益下降了多少为什么你的收益上升了 what is your total drawdown why is your pyramiding up
你开始买入这些头寸 and you start buying these positions
结果是很多人增加了风险 what happens is a lot of people they add risk
他们开始添加名字 they start adding names
所以他们增加了风险，增加了止损点 so they're adding risk and they're adding stops
但他们不考虑他们的 but they don't think about what their
如果一切都对他们不利，那就全输了 total loss is if everything moves against them
这是你需要做的 and that's something that you need to
了解并做好准备 know and be prepared for
如果一切都对我不利怎么办 what if everything just turns around on me
我被这些股票钉住了 and I get nailed on all these stocks
你知道我能接受吗 you know am I okay with that
没有多的 without amount of
你知道损失 you know loss
所以如果不是 so if not well
那你要么就是脾气不好 then you either got a temper
你要么暴露，要么收紧止损点 your exposure or you have to tighten up your stops
这就是 this is something that
拉尔夫·科佩尔和我跟他去了一段时间 ralph coppell and I went over with him a while
几年前我和他做私人治疗的时候 years ago when I did some private sessions with him
这极大地扭转了他的交易 and it turned his trading around dramatically
它是它是一个很大的 it was it was a big
让他开始顿悟你知道的 epiphany for him to start to you know
计算 calculate
他减了多少钱，还给了多少钱 what his drawdown was and also how much give back
他是 he was
通常情况下，高潮和低谷都会回归 normally giving back off the highs and the drawdown
并开始意识到撤军的重要性 and to start being cognizant of the drawdown
如果你愿意，全部风险就是全部损失 and the total risk the total loss if you will
马克，你那天说过这个 mark you talked about this the other day
当然，我认为你不能低估这一点 absolutely and I think you can't underestimate that
你需要从两方面考虑 you need to think of it in two ways
首先是当然 the first is of course
实际损失百分比或美元损失 the actual percentage loss or dollar loss
如果你对此感到不舒服，那么你可以 if you're not comfortable with that then you've got
这是你的第一个问题 there's your first problem
但另一个当然是 but then the other is of course
这对你的自信有什么影响 what is that gonna do to your confidence
所以如果你是新人，很多人认为 so if you're new and a lot of people think
好吧，如果我什么都能被搭讪的话 well if I get hit on everything
你知道 you know
也许它也许它会导致 and maybe it's maybe it's gonna result in a
7%的抽成，这只是我编的数字 7% draw and I'm just making up numbers you know
到你的总权益 to your total equity and you go
我没意见 I'm fine with that
或者你有一种懒惰的态度 and or you have a sort of a lazy fair attitude
这没什么大不了的 that's not that big a deal
如果你从来没有一次撞到所有东西 if you've never had everything get hit at once
总有一天，这种事会发生在你身上 at some point that's going to happen to you
如果你的损失 and if your losses to the
你觉得你能接受的尺寸 size where you think you're okay with it
但这会打击你的信心 but it's going to put a dent in your confidence
然后你需要 then you need to
你需要 you need to
提前做好准备 be prepared for that ahead of time
马克的确切观点是什么 which is mark's exact point
意思你总是 meaning you always
如果你是新人，要做好准备 to be prepared if you're new
我不会 I wouldn't
只需要覆盖停止 just necessarily override stops
我会把所有要说的都看一遍 I would just be looking at everything to say
如果一切都被击中 if everything gets hit
是不是太多了 is it too much
如果太多的话 if it's too much
你得做些调整 and you're gonna have to adjust something
我一直都是这么想的 and that's how I'm thinking about it all the time
这是你知道的 that's you know
我们正在问这些问题 we're asking those questions
好的，我们带了多少 okay how much are we carrying
我们能在什么地方做些调整吗 and can we make an adjustment somewhere
如果我们觉得我们承担了太多的风险 if we feel like we're carrying too much risk
或者如果你想多穿点 or if you want to put on more
你必须时刻为另一方做好准备 you have to always be prepared for the other side
这是马克的一点 that's mark's point
每个人，他们经常把自己金字塔金字塔的正确 everybody often they pyramid themselves up properly
但他们不会好好思考 but then they don't think well
等一下，如果 wait a minute what happens if
这件事完全是我的责任 this thing completely banks a yui on me
其中一些时期是市场开拓的时期 and some of these periods were the markets carving out
底部可能会发生一两次 bottoms that might happen one or two
你有赛马时间的时候 times where you you've got jockey time
好吧 well
任何时候它都会在某个点发生 at any time it will happen at some point
绝对是的 yes absolutely
能骑着马到处跑，还能保住自己 to be able to jockey around and keep yourself
做下一个准备，看着一切 taking the next setups and watching things without
对你的信心造成了很大的打击 putting too big of a dent in your confidence
因为你只需要找到它的位置 because you only have to get it position
对一次 right one time
让它真正强大起来 for it to really be powerful
是的 yes
因为两件事 for two things
一是你知道准备 one is you know the being prepared
是准备好停车吗 is to be prepared with your stops
你知道，做好准备 and being prepared you know
机械地 mechanically or or you know
逻辑上你要做什么 logistically of what you're going to do
你将如何回应 how you're going to respond
知道你的外面在哪里，等等 and know where your your outs are and all those things
也在准备中 is also being prepared
精神和情感 mentally and emotionally
你知道 and you know
我总是把这些东西带回去 I always take a lot of these things back to either
我的生活有三个方面 there's three areas of my life
或者我做过的三件事 or three things that I've done
还是做继续做 or do continue to do
我最了解的 that I've learned the most about
我可以与之相关的交易 trading that I could related to and that is
拍摄 shooting
武术和拳击当我很久以前 martial arts and boxing when I very long time ago
和扑克 and poker
这是三个与我相关的领域 those are the three areas that I can relate to
市场和你用 the market and you use
这就像一个即插即用 it's like a plug and play
他们在很多方面几乎是一样的 they're almost identical in so many ways
好吧 well
你知道的，拳击和武术 with the with the boxing and the martial arts you know
和迈克泰森 and mike tyson
你应该说每个人都有自己的计划 you should say everybody's got a plan
直到他们脸上挨了一拳 until they get punched in the face
这是真的，你知道我我我 it's so true you know I I I
我在我的 and I tell stories in my
这本书你可能读过这个故事 book you've probably read the story
关于我的第一次空手道 about my first karate
那次比赛我的肋骨断了 tournament where I got my rib broken and
完全出乎意料地 completely unexpectedly
好吧 well
有时候我以为我准备好了 there's times where you know I thought I was prepared
然后我上了拳击台，有人会你认识的 and then I get in the ring and somebody would you know
他们比我强 that they were better than me
或者你知道我放松了警惕 or you know I let my guard down
突然之间就来了一连串的重击 and all of a sudden there's this barrage of punches
然后你被击中 and you get hit
你把自己扔进了一个圈 and you throw you for a loop
你正在努力 and you're trying to
恢复你的镇静，你会再次被击中 regain your composure and you get hit again
突然之间，你就有大麻烦了 and just all of a sudden you're in big trouble you know
这就是市场上的情况 and so that's what happens in the market
这是完全相同的事情，突然停了几次 it's the same exact thing all of a sudden a few stops
然后你就有大麻烦了 and next thing you know you're in big trouble
你身上肯定有什么缺陷 and there's something gaps down on you
你以为你准备好了什么 and what you thought you were prepared for
你根本没你想的那么准备充分，因为 you weren't nearly as prepared as you thought because
你不会真的觉得会发生吧 you didn't really think it was really gonna happen
就像你说，哦，你知道 as much as you're like oh you know
我知道这一切都可以停止 I know all these can stop
但这可能不会发生 you know but it's probably not gonna happen
而你并没有真正做好准备 and you didn't really prepare for it
这样你就会发现自己准备得有多充分 so you find out how prepared you are
当事情发生的时候 when the shit hits the fan
然后你意识到 and then you realize it
但这也是你需要准备的 but so again that's what makes you prepare
你学习了，然后说，好吧，我真的没有准备好 you learn and you say okay I wasn't really prepared
现在我得想出一个计划 now I got to come up with a plan for that
你不断地建立你的战术手册 and you constantly build your playbook
直到你有了一个可靠的战术手册 until you've got a solid playbook that has
你知道几乎所有的基础都覆盖了 you know pretty much all the base is covered
鲍勃在问关于齐姆的事 bob is asking about zim
它是有 that it's had
三天涨价，三天葡萄树 three days of price increases and three days of vine
上周三，周四，周五下降 decreases last Wednesday Thursday Friday
这不是一个好图表，这不是一个好图表 is not a good this is not a good chart right here of it
我提一下，因为它没有调整 so let me bring up because it's not adjusted
我们把它放到这里 so let's bring it up here
结汇 zim
不好意思，继续 I'm sorry go ahead
随着连续三天的物价上涨 so with the three days of price increases on
低成交量导致今天是一个担忧或 lower volume leading up to today is that a concern or
谨慎 caution
不，这正是我们想看到的 no that's exactly what we want to see
我们想看到主轴的体积减小 we want to see the volume come down in the pivot
谨慎 caution
这是一个加号，这正是你想看到的 that's a plus that's exactly what you want to see
你想看到它安静地在枢轴上 you want to see it quiet down in the pivot
我看到你说它在上升 and I see you're saying that it's going up
但这不是问题 but no that's not a problem
你想得太多了 you're reading into things too much
你们这么努力地去看每一个 you guys are trying so hard to look at every
微小的事情 little microscopic thing
看，把它放入，放入单孔 look put it in put it in monolar
好吧，如果你把它放在单分子中 alright if you put this in monolar
上面说有违规行为吗 does it say that there's violations there
或者过去三天 or the last three days
事实上，他们告诉你的恰恰相反 actually they'll tell you just the opposite
他们会说是三个更高的高度 they'll say three higher heights
它会作为确认返回 it'll actually come back as a confirmation
所以如果你想知道是否有违规 so if you want to know if there's violations
如果手柄有问题 if there's a problem in the handle
所以他们能处理六天的单细胞手术 so they handle six days run a six day monoler
你会在此时此地被告知 and you're going to get told right then and there
如果有问题 if there's problems
这是你们知道的 so that that's you know
这是最好的这就是我们创建modeler的原因 that's the best that's why we created modeler
我认为这可能与 comment I think that might be related to
比如股息 things like the dividend
马克·菲罗在问 mark fillo is asking
你会用股息调整后的数据来预测突破吗 do you use dividend adjusted data for a breakout
没有 no
或未调整的LMT是他的参考 or not adjusted lmt is his reference
我的意思是它被调整了 I mean it's adjusted
图表也相应地调整了，所以我不是 the charts adjusted for it so I'm not
我是在调整我的计算吗，不是吗 is that am I adjusting for that and my calculation no
我用了相应的图表 I'm using the charts that adjust for it
而这张图表没有 and this chart did not
这就是为什么 and that's why
看起来它有一个角度d的警告 it looks like it's got an angle d warning
但事实并非如此 but it really doesn't
一个以前 an lmt
26日，它派发了2.8美元的股息 on the 26 it had a $2.8 dividend distribution
但那是400个小时 but that's a 400 hourstock
是的 yeah
这是一个很小的比例 that's a very small percentage anyway
斯巴达在问 spartan is asking about
借鉴马克·麦克纳维尔的经验 taking a page from mark mcnaville's playbook
去年在nex last year in nex
周五中午我买了一个非常大的仓位 midday Friday was a very large position I bought it
有一个类型停止 with a type stop
我没有卖出一半，而是将止损点移动到收支平衡 I didn't sell half but moved my stop to break even
到最后，它仍然有效 at the end of the day it is still holding
请批评我的计划 please critique my plan
我的加州股票今年涨了5%，表现平平 my cal has been flat for the year with 5% gains
止损2.5%，听起来不错 two and a half percent stops which sounds great
我现在有5只股票都有5%到6%的收益 I have five stocks all with five or 6% gains right now
希望提高我的平均水平 looking to improve my average
平均每场有8%的比赛，所以他在周五的任何时候都可以拿x up to 8% average games so he took any x on Friday
但是他有1155 but he had eleven fifty five
十一点三十五停 with eleven thirty five stop
现在他在十一点五十五分收支平衡 and now he's at eleven fifty five break even
这里的55 55 right here
一千一百三十五年 eleven thirty five
很明显，11点35分是最低价 eleven thirty five stop is right at the low obviously
所以这就是你的计划 so there's your there's your plan right there
你可以在这里登机 you board it here
所以你买它的时候，它正在上面 so you bought it just as it was coming above
前一天的价格很高 that previous day is high
你把它放在上面 you board it sort of in a little
在爆发前撤退 pull back by just before the break out
它继续，你得到逆转恢复 it continued you got the reversal recovery
你的站是 and your stop was
在下面，在下面 down here around the lower so around the low of
实际上是对的，我们来确认一下 actually that right let's make sure
他说车站在哪里 what did he say the stop was
开始是11点35分，但现在要开始了 eleven thirty five initially but now it's up to break
你移动到鸟的残骸 you move to the bird debris
我的意思是 I mean you know
这样的交易有很多事情要做 look if there's a lot of what to do trading like that
有很多工作要做，你知道，我是说你 there's a lot of work you know I mean you're you're
你会经常被拦下 you're gonna get stopped a lot
你知道，你会有 you know and you're gonna have
但这很好，我是说你 but it's great I mean you're
你创造了巨大的不对称杠杆 you're creating tremendous asymmetric leverage
这取决于 depending on what
你允许股票上涨 you allow the stock to go on the upside
这是一种游戏 now this is the type of play where
你知道你创造了一个巨大的优势 you know you're creating a huge edge
它被抵消了 it's being offset somewhat by
你知道 you know
事实上，你阻止了很多交易 the fact that you're choking off a lot of trades
但如果管理得当，你的时机就很好 but if it's managed properly your timing is good
这就是我想要的交易方式 this is the but this is exactly the way I would trade
马克·里奇愿意交换 and mark ritchie would trade
你知道这是 you know this is
如果你是一个波动交易，你知道 so again if you're a swing trading you know
我完全赞成尽可能地把车停得最紧 and I'm all for having the tightest stop possible
但大多数人就是做不到 but most people just can't
他们不会这么做的 they won't do it
他们不会做所有的工作 they won't do all the work
他们很沮丧 and they get frustrated
当他们被拦下很多次的时候 when they get stopped out a lot of times
看到我 see to me
就算我连续被拦下10次我也不在乎 I don't care if I get stopped out 10 times in a row
如果每站一分钱，你就知道每站0.05美元 if it's one penny stop you know if it's a $0.05 stop
我连续被拦下十次 I get stopped out 10 times in a row I
损失了半美元 lost a half a buck
如果那半本书是 if that half a book is
X百分比X美元的金额是可以接受的 x percentage an x dollar amount that's acceptable
我不管我被拦了多少次 I don't care how many times I get stopped out
其实我更希望这样 I actually would rather it be that way
因为我把 because I'm taking
它不会 it's not gonna
假设连续10站等于a let's just say 10 stops in a row equals a
半美元，然后半美元是句号 half a dollar and then half a dollar is a full stop
好吧 well
最坏的情况是连续停10站 my worst case scenario is 10 stops in a row let's say
假设 let's just say
为了便于讨论，这是 for argument's sake that's
最坏的情况就是连续停10站 my worst case scenario is 10 stops in a row
那么 well then
我要 I'm gonna
做对比连续10站都好 get it right times better than 10 stops in a row
所以我真的做得很好很好 so I'm really making a great great
这对我来说很危险 you know risk situation there for myself
因为最坏的情况已经结束了 because the worst case scenario is a full stop
这就是我们要做的 so this is exactly the way to do it
但是你可能会阻碍交易 but again you may be choking off the trade a bit here
我想现在 I think right now
看看发生了什么 see here's what's happening
现在你已经 now that you've
你搬到了这里 you moved up here
你今天早上搬出去了 and you moved out this morning and took out
周五的高 friday's high
上周五的低点在这里有些重要 friday's low is somewhat important here
因为现在你有户外活动了 because now you have an outside day
你看这样 you see so
这就是我要说的 that would be where I would say that
这就是不正常的地方 that's where it's abnormal
所以我认为11 7以下是11 7 so I think 11 oh seven below 11 oh seven is where
你应该到站了 your stop should probably be
好的，蕾妮想问你能不能提供一些 all right renee is asking if you can please offer any
处理清洗的最佳做法 best practices on handling wash
销售规则任何变通办法 sale rules any workarounds
也 also
你能和会计谈谈吗 can you please have to talk to accountant about that
我觉得周围没有工作了 I don't think there's any work around
你知道的 it's just you know
但 but
我不知道你的情况 there may be I don't know your situation
我不会给你任何会计建议 and I'm not gonna give any accounting advice
你会考虑哪些因素 what factors do you consider
移动停车位置以使刹车均匀 to move a stop up to brake even
例如gsg for example gsg
在此之前，制动装置就已经启动了 the stop was moved to brake even before
卖出一部分股票 selling a portion of the stock
是的 yeah
BPT在这里再次上升，缺少非常棒的GSG bpt is moving up here again lacking really great so gsg
是的 yep
嗯让我们看看 yeah let's see
所以你看 so you know look
这要看情况，真的要看情况 it depends it really depends on
我的交易目标是什么 what my goal is in the trade
有时候有些交易我做不到 and sometimes there's trades that I'm not
你知道的，对或有信心 you know as confident with or
它们的基础是这样的 they're based like with this
它的基础是商品 it's based on underlying you know commodities
我不想冒太大的风险 and Idon't want to take a lot of risk
它可能是我不喜欢的东西 it might be something that I don't love
也许我不喜欢这个故事，也不喜欢这个公司 maybe I don't love the story or the company
或基础 or the fundamentals
我不想冒太大的风险 and I don't want to take a lot of risk
所以我会更快地把它折掉 so I'll crimp it off quicker
这也是一种风格 again it's part stylistic
这当然是数学 it's you know it's certainly math
但我可以告诉你一般的规则 but I can give you general rules
一般规则是这样的 the general rule the thumb is is that
一旦你买到止损点，你就会移动止损点以达到收支平衡 you move your stop to break even once you get it
是你的风险的倍数 a multiple of your risk
最好比你的平均水平高 and preferably adder above your average game
如果你的平均收益是10% so if your average gain is 10%
假设休息6% you take let's say a 6% rest
股价上涨到13% the stock moves up to 13 %
现在得到2h you've now gotten a 2h
你的收益高于平均水平 and you're above your average gain
在这一点上，这在数学上是有意义的 at that pointit makes sense mathematically
要么以金融止损的方式卖出一半 either sell half of it with financial stop
或者卖掉一半 or sell half of it
移动你的止损点以达到收支平衡 move your stop to break even
保证自己获得一半的收益 guarantee yourself half the gain
或者移动你的止损点来平衡自由滚动 or move your stop to break even free roll it and
再一次保证自己没有损失 once again guarantee yourself no loss
然后使出更大的招数 and play it for a bigger move
这些基本上是 those are basically
我通常会做的三个选择 the three options that I normally do
马克，你还有其他选择吗 mark are there any other options that you
除了那些你想要的 other than those that you would
放到一个 put into one
给我三个 give me the three
就像你刚说的那样快 real quick as you just laid them out on
一定要重复 and make sure to repeat
这是标准的细胞二分之一 well this yeah the standard you know cell cell half
一旦你的收益超过平均水平 when you once you get above your average gain
这样你的风险就会成倍增加 and you've got a multiple of your risk
细胞的一半, cell half and
和金融风险 and financial risk
所以你可以用救援刹车自由滚动 so you're free rolling with the rescue brake
即使它是顶短的原始停止 even if it's top short original stop
或者卖一半甚至移动你的刹车 or sell half move your stop to brake even
现在你保证有12%的利润 now you guarantee yourself it's a 12% profit
你保证6%的利润 you guarantee yourself 6% profit
或 or
即使到了那个时候，也要把你的煞车动一下 move your stop to brake even then
免费滚动，基本上是冒着所有利润的风险 free roll it and basically riskall the profit
但是你有更多的收益 but you have more gain upside
当然，但你可以自由滚动，收支平衡 of course but you're free rolling with a break even
其他任何地方 any other place
你可能会 in that you would maybe
是的，那是相当的废气 yeah that's pretty exhaust
哥哥 oppa
不，我的意思是，只是有一些变化 no well I mean there's just variations you know
你喜欢有时候我会卖 you like sometimes I'll sell
我会卖掉1 / 4或3 / 3之类的东西 I'll sell a quarter or 3rd or those types of things
但这是一样的 but it's the same
不管怎样，你都要牺牲一些东西 you're going to have to sacrifice something either way
对，没错，但你会进步的 right and that's right but you're going to improve
正如你常说的，目标的终点是 the end of the goal as you've always saying is
如何改善最坏的情况 how do you improve your worst case scenario
好吧，你可以更快地移动停止没有 well that the faster you can move to stop up without
让自己脱离正常的行为 knocking yourself out of normal action
这就是我认为有些人 that's where I think some people
你可以得到自己 you can get yourself
你知道的，只要你 you know just chopped around if you just
我只是想把我的站台提前一点 I just want to move my stop up
你知道 well you know
如果你总是做得太快 if you if you do that too quickly all the time
然后你就会结束 then you're just going to wind up
很多刹车事件，却几乎没有利润 lots of brake events and hardly any profits
因为股市波动 because stocks fluctuate
所以这是一种健康的平衡 so it's finding a healthy balance
我认为这是一个好时期 and I think this is a good period
指出这一点 to be pointing this out
因为 because
我们现在有一些股票是合理的 we've got a number of stocks now where it makes sense
无论是在数学上还是在价格上 both on the math and the price action
是的是的绝对 yeah yeah absolutely
我希望这对你有所帮助 I hope that helps you
杰瑞在LRN上问 jerry is asking on LRN
它现在表现正常吗 is it acting normal now
股票交易波动很大，交易量很大 stock is trading volatile with large volume
你也可以看看单分子的afg also can you take a look at afg in monoler
为什么会有压力 why is it under pressure
f f g a f a f g
这是第二个问题 yeah that's the second question
我就不看了，modeler I'm gonna not look at it modeler
我要看着我自己的眼睛 and I'm gonna look at my own eyes
因为单分子是基于我自己的眼睛 because monoler is based on my own eyes
看看我做得怎么样 and let's see how I do
但是，我要学习 but but ellet learn
你知道如果我们待在下面就不正常了 you know it would be abnormal if we stay down
你知道，当我们来到这里，我们再次翻转 you know and we reverse again as we come up here
你看，看，你可以清楚地看 you see look you can clearly see look
反转反转反转反转反转 reversal reversal reversal reversal
跑到这里，这是 runs up here and this is
我们这里应该有一些供应 we're expected to have some supply here
那么我们如何处理这些供给呢 so now how do we handle that supply
到目前为止非常完美 well so far perfectly
到目前为止,完全 so far perfectly
我是在这里买的 I bought it here coming off the cheat
在处理 within the handle
我们预计会收紧，并在这里暂停 we expected to tighten up and pause here
现在 and now
这是一个完美的时间添加一些当它爆发 this is a perfect time to add some as it breaks out
但是现在当它回来的时候 but now when it comes back down
这是正常的，取决于关闭 this is normal depending on the close
现在 now
再次，如果我们取出这个低点，你就会吞没主点 again if we take out this low and you engulf the pivot
现在你在外面有了这个 now you've got this outside day
你有一个外部 and you've got an outside
这一天会吞噬整个枢纽，那将是 day that engulfs the entire pivot and that would be
第一次违反 the first violation
不幸的是，我们要计算一下 and unfortunately we're gonna try to calculate
我正在想办法 I'm coming up with the way right now
我觉得我可以 I think where I'm gonna be able
计算枢轴的吞没 to calculate an engulfing of the pivot
或者是枢轴失效 or a pivot failure as a
违反了，但我们没有 violation but we haven't
得出我满意的计算结果 come up with the calculation that I'm happy with just
然而，实际上你可以 yet where you can actually
获得一个让你知道正在发生的违规 get a violation that lets you know that's happening
这就是为什么 so again that's why
你看到我换站了吗 did you see I changed the stop
因为 because
我换站的原因就是因为现在 the reason why I changed the stop is because now
这是在告诉我 this is telling me hey
这不是如果这个套件在这层下面 this isn't if this kits below this level right here
这不是一个真正好的行动 this is just not really good action
现在你把我说的扩音器弄对了 now you're getting what I call the megaphone right
你会得到扩音器效果 you get the megaphone effects
在哪里 where
如果它能从这里穿过，再到这里 if this took out this low here and came down here
波动正在扩大，而不是收紧 volatily is widening now not tightening
我想收紧，我想安静下来 I wanted to tighten I wanted to quiet down here
有时你会被快速淘汰 now sometimes you get a quick shakeout
这就是为什么它被称为洗牌 and that's why it's called a shakeout
把你打晕，然后起飞 knocks you out takes off
但这也是我这么做的原因 but again that that's that's why I did that
什么是简单的 what was the simple
一个什么 a what
A.F.G. A.F.G.
二自由度陀螺仪正确 afg correct
让我们看看 let's see
二自由度陀螺仪 afg
好的，这是 okay is this a
图表调整一下吧，这又是另一个 chart adjust it too again is this another one
有看 there look
那绝不是 that's definitely not
这需要去市场，史密斯，是的 that's need go to market smith yeah
我负责很多分销，不适应这里 man a lot of distributions and not adjusting here
好的, okay so
违规有什么问题 what's the question about violations
为什么会有压力 why is it under pressure
可能就是因为这个原因 and it might be because of that
你可能有一个图表不是 you may have a chart that's not
为了适应那里发生的事情 adjusting for something that took place there
这可能是为什么 that's probably why
如果你看一下 if you take a look
是啊，如果你看的话，我有我没在看 yeah it might if you look and I had I'm not looking on
在 on
我的提醒 mon alert
但普通警报可能会注意到这张图 but mon alert is probably picking up this chart
这就是为什么 that's why
我很确定这就是原因，但这个会 I'm pretty sure that's the reason why but this would
这看起来不像 this doesn't look like
现在你可以得到像这样的底料 now you can get a stock that is in a base like this
收紧肾上腺素 and tightening an epip
而且它可能仍然面临压力 and it still might be under pressure
仅仅因为 just because
你的横盘操作并没有给你带来好处 your sideways action just hasn't given that upside
短期动量 short term momentum
你真的处在边缘 and you're really kind of on the verge
它有时 and it sometimes
他们会反反复复 they'll go back and forth
在有压力和无压力之间 between under pressure and off pressure
当他们在基地的时候 while they're in a base
但这看起来不像 but this doesn't look like it though
这看起来是没有压力的 this looks like this would not be under pressure
所以我不，我不确定 so I'm not I'm not sure
是的，我不太确定 yeah I'm not really sure about that
但我很确定这就是原因 but I'm pretty sure that's why
因为当然，图表并没有显示出来 because of course the charts not pick them that up yeah
彼得在问那个PRCT peter is asking on that prct
刚收到 just got
某些方面 some ways
在这里给我发个信息 send me a message here
好的去吧 okay go ahead
对不起，是什么节目 sorry what is it on
prct prct
是PRCT，我也想让你知道 prct yeah and also just let you know
Afg在我的候选名单上 afg is on my list of potentials here
为了为了向上移动到 for for moving up to
我就在这里看 I'm looking at it right here
这是正确的 it's right
在我们可以添加编译器的地方 at the point where we may be adding that compiler
你要知道 just so you know
prct是的 prct yep
问题 question
从最近的低级欺骗中爆发出来 broke out from a low cheat recently
但是下降了66% but it had about a 66% drop
从十一月到一月 from the November to January
这是一个低风险高概率的游戏 what makes this a low risk high probability play
尽管有如此大的调整 despite such the big correction
是的，有一点 well it is it is a little bit
我得说这有点可疑 I have to say it is a little bit questionable
因为这里有很大的下降 because it had such a big drop here
这里有很大的下降吗 had this big huge drop here
现在距离有点远了 now it's a little bit of ways away
这是一个很好的距离，但是 it is a good distance away but
你是绝对正确的 you're absolutely right
它做了那个，而我不愿意做这个 it made that and I was reluctant on this one
但看看这款已经成为大型游戏的游戏 but look at the game that it has made a big game
如果你测量这个 and if you measure this
这里摇晃得很快 it had a quick shake out here
但我更喜欢这个 but I'm looking at this more of a
伪权力玩 pseudo power play
如果你愿意的话，毫无疑问，风险肯定更大 if you will it's definitely more risky there's no doubt
毫无疑问，这增加了风险，但我认为这太远了 there's no doubt it has added risk but I think it's far
距离足够远 farther enough away
至少它收紧得很好 and it tightened up quite nicely from at least
从交易的角度来看 a standpoint of getting a trade out of it
这又是一种情况 and again here's the situation
我们就像这样 we're like something like this
我知道，而且如果 I know that and and if it
如果它在这里起飞，我就能获得可观的收益 if it takes off here and I get at a decent gain
很快 pretty quickly
我可能会很快把它折下来 I'm probably gonna crimp it off real quick
并消除这种风险 and take that risk off
你知道并珍惜我的幸福 you know and count my blessings
这也是你可能想要介入的地方 and also this is one where you may want to come in
风险更低 on a lower risk
进入时可能会有一个更紧的停顿 entry maybe with a tighter stop
你当然可以 you certainly you know can
可以使用更紧的停顿吗 can use a tighter stop
所以我有时 so then I sometimes
把我们建议的最大限度停止，但是 put we put maximum stops that we suggest but
来弥补一下 and make up for that
所以你得给这个行业评分 so you got to sort of grade the trade
你知道 you know
我总是给交易打分，说这些是王牌 I'm always grading the trade and saying are these aces
国王，王后，这是什么手 kings queens what kind of hand is this
从那时起，我的计划就围绕着这个展开了 and then from there my plan really revolves around that
有时你知道虽然你有一只手 sometimes you know though you have a hand that
你知道 you know
你们的评分是两个2，结果很好 you graded as a pair of twos and it works out great
一对王牌失败了 and a pair of aces fail
就像打扑克一样 just like in poker you
你，你知道你带着一双小鞋一瘸一拐地进去 you you know you limp in with a small pair
你翻牌了 you flop a set and
你赢了一大笔钱 you've been win a big pot
还有一些时候你会用力 and there's other times you push
再加上一对王牌 all in with a pair of aces
你会失去 and you'll lose
有时候就是这样的 now that's the way it works sometimes
好吧 all right
弗雷德在问阿里斯是不是圣经 fred is asking about aris if it's bible here
和一个英里 and a mph
就一秒钟，如果你能忍受我的话 along one second if you can just bear with me
也许马克可以解决这个问题，我会去的 maybe mark can address that and I'll come
我会尽力处理的 and I'll try and manage
等一下，我知道了 just a second I got it
我只是对这里的某个人做出回应 I just kind of respond to somebody here
好吧，我们等等，因为那需要图表 all right let's wait because that requires a charts
继续回答另一个问题 go ahead take another question
我们马上就会回到这个问题 and we'll come right back to that one
Hebe问我的平均损失是否为3% hebe is asking if my average loss is 3%
我应该坚持平均损失吗 should I stick to my average loss
或者调整到建议的止损 or adjust to the stop loss recommended
在mpa平台中 in the mpa platform
并减小仓位的大小 and reduce the size of the position
我问的是你的股票 I'm asking about the stocks that you set by on
Mark richie，你能解释一下吗 mark richie can you address that
确定,所以 sure so
平均损失还是3 again the average loss is three
假设 so let's say
可能有一只股票的止损点是6 there might be a stock where the stop is six
如果你有的话 well if you have some
当我说平均的时候，我就停止了 when I would say average I've got stops that
你知道 you know
我可能会选8分，也可能选1分 I might take it eight and some I might take it one
你知道我的平均值是4个半 well you know my average there would be four and a half
这样我就不会太激动地说这些了 so I wouldn't get so wrapped up to say that
仅仅因为你的平均值是 just because your average is
三，每一站都得是三 three that every stop has to be three
关键是要确保你的 the key is one to make sure that your
首先听一下你的站点 first of all listening to your stops
然后在数学上讲得通的地方停下来 and then making stops that make mathematical sense
相对于你的数字，然后交易本身 relative to your numbers and then the trade itself
所以如果你停下来，那是4到5% so if you take a stop that is four or 5%
你不应该在4%或5%的时候获利 you shouldn't be taken profits at four or 5%
看看你有没有 so and look if you've been
最近真的紧 really tight lately
正如你所知道的，我希望每个人都是，这是关键 as you know I hope everybody has been that's the key
我想说的是现在 it's right now I would say
比方说马克 let's say mark
站台上的平均停车次数大概是5% average stop on the platform is probably what 5%
所以我会说这很好 so I would say that's fine
但你可能会想要错开 but then you might want to stagger
去掉一半，两个半，五个半 take off half it two and a half and half it five
你就在这里插入 and you're right there insert
目前的平均水平是4.9% the average is 4.9% right now
4%是平均水平 four point % is the average
但是如果你只用静态的3 but if you just use a static three
我觉得你会有麻烦的 I think you're going to have a problem
因为你会让自己陷入困境 because you're going to be stopping yourself out
在某些情况下，这并不总是正确的 at points that don't necessarily always make
停止的感觉 sense for a stop
这 so that
是啊，如果你用了，就标记一下 yeah and mark if you use it
你可以使用任何你可以使用静态的东西 you can use a static anything you can use a static one
但你现在必须这么做 but you have to now
你的时机一定会影响它 your timing is going to have to be commencer it
停止1% with a 1% stop
你知道你的时间必须 you know your time is gonna have to be
从3%停止的地方开始 commenced with where the 3% stop
所以如果你在交易的方向上买入 so if you're buying in the direction of the trade
你知道你是在涨的时候买的 you know you're buying on the way up you know
如果是短的，就在下山的路上 or on the way down if it's short
这是第一件事 that's the first thing
停得越紧 the tighter the stop
你得赚得越多 the more you have to make
绝对确定你会买 absolutely certain that you're buying
随着股票向你的方向移动 as the stocks moving into your direction
你还必须确保 you also have to make sure
这并不是一个广泛的传播 that there's not a wide spread
因为你可能瞬间就懵了 because you could be at that loss instantaneously
就在这摊上 just on the spread alone
所以有些事情你是 so there's some things that you are
你得注意了 you're going to have to mind
如果你用的是很紧的停顿 if you're using the really tight stop
这主意不错 it's not a bad idea
你要尽量使用紧止点 and you want to try to use as tight stop as possible
但你会的 but you're going to
不得不退回到风险中，它会消除吗 have to back into that risk and it's going to eliminate
很多交易，很多机会 a lot of trades a lot of opportunities
这是不允许的 that are just not going to allow that kind of
波动 fluctuation
你的止损会允许这种波动 your stop is going to allow the type of fluctuation
正常波动 for normal fluctuation
我要补充一下这个问题 I'll add to this question
我的意思是喜欢 I mean like
有时候我喜欢去看一些交易 there are trades sometimes I like where I just go look
这是我得停下来了 this is I'm gonna have to take a stop
这对我来说有点太宽了 that's a little too wide for me
因此,而不是 so rather than
因为他问我要不要减持 because he did ask should I shrink my position
其实我不会这么做 I actually don't do that
我宁愿用一个很紧的停顿 I would rather stick with a tight stop
和 and
让我再试一次 give me myself more tries
而不是说 rather than say
好吧，我要停一停，缩小我的尺寸 well I'll take a wide stop and cut my size
我也是这样 I'm the same exact way
我宁愿努力把握好时机 I would much rather try to get my timing right
使用更紧的停顿 use a tighter stop
降低风险 and crimp off the risk
完全一样 so exactly the same
但这也意味着有时候你必须放手 but that means sometimes you just have to let things go
这是人们很难做到的 and that's something people have a hard time doing
因为他们只是想买些东西 because they just want to buy something
这是完全正确的 that's exactly right
这就是纪律和权力 it's that discipline and that walk away power
这力量 and that power
坐了 to sit out
还有耐心等待 and to be patient and to wait
正是这些因素导致了这些问题 it's all those things that cause these problems
所以阿里 so ari
在最后一个问题之后，我很抱歉 after that last other question was an ari as I'm sorry
是啊，怎么了 yeah what about it
是圣经还是MPH is a bible and a mph
是圣经吗 is it a bible
好吧，所以我想说如果你 okay so I was to say if you
如果你要进行二次购买 you know if you were going to have a secondary buy
它一大早就蹲在这里 right here with its squatting early day
表现得如此坚强 and acting so strong
我想你可以在这里买到 I think you could probably buy it right here
你知道，在这里，希望有一件好衣服 you know as it pulls back here hope for a good clothes
即使你得不到一件好衣服的希望 even if you don't get a good clothes hope
你知道，希望它能进去 you know hopefully it goes inside
也许还需要几天时间 and maybe it takes a few more days
但它表现得非常好 but it's acting really well
它在这里有楔子 it has wedges its way up here
所以有一点 so there's a little bit of
这里有一些波动的风险，但是 risk of some volatility here but
但是，是的，但是 but yeah but it's
你的最佳购买是这里吗 is your optimal buy no your optimal buy is here
就在这里，如果它能再停一天 right here which if it had one more day of pause
那就太完美了 that would have been perfect
我肯定会全力支持的 I would have been all over it
但它来得早了一天 but it came out a little one day premature
然后这里当然就是你穿过的地方 and then right here of course where you got through
轴心点 the pivot point
课本上有两点 so you have the two points where textbook you know
作弊处理 cheat handle
现在你有了第一次反击进化者的机会 now you got your first pull back to the breakout
你出现 you're turning up
所以你会根据你的自然反应来购买 so you'll be buying from your natural reaction on a
出于自然反应而出现的 turning up from a natural reaction
这也很好 and that's fine too
只要你不是 as long as you're not
离买的东西太远了 running up too far from the purchase
从那个进化者那里你知道的 from the the breakout which is you know
现在是7%，有点高了 7% now so it is a little ways up
你知道你在哪里买的 you know you're buying it at where
我们的很多成员都是 a lot of our members would be
可能今天就在卖 probably selling it today
你知道的，在高处或者 you know up around the highs or
前几天涨了10%到12% in the first few days up 10 or 12%
你知道 you know
短线交易员会在那个时候抛售 short term traders would be selling at that point
所以如果你想走更大的一步是的 so if you're playing it for a bigger move yes
你可以买下来 you could you could buy it
另一个凌晨1点是什么 what was the other 1:00am
ph值 ph
A m纠正A m d h a m correct a m d h
p h p h
哦，一个m p h oh a m p h
抱歉，我不喜欢艺术 oh oh I don't like art sorry
好的，问题是什么 yeah so what's the question
圣经 bible
这里的绝对 absolutely right here
不，不，我想抽大麻 no no I want to take out the high
周五的兴奋会让你度过周五的兴奋 fridays high you get through fridays high
你可以看到我实际上有一个 you can see I actually have a
在今天的高 on today's high
我有一个警报 I have an alert
然后是周五的高潮 and then I have out of the fridays high
这就是警报的位置 of an alert and that's where
你知道我想在这个职位上增加一些人 you know I would look to add to the position
或者至少会稍微撞一下 or at least maybe even bump it a little bit
如果可以的话 and then if you can
收紧更多 tighten up even more
有些人可能会想 you know some people might think
当你用这个high的时候 while you use this high right here this
这是3998 this thirty nine ninety eight
你可以像你知道的那样逆转 that reversal you could as you know that would be
需要它来清除所有东西 you know requiring it to really clear everything
但我觉得如果你在这里呆得好一点 but I think if you stay nice and tight here
你可以从这里开始买 you can start buying it right through this
三十八七十三层 thirty eight seventy three level
乔在问艾柯的事 joe's asking about alco
似乎在 seems like taking
看起来它要突破第一阶段了 seems like it's breaking out of a stage one
忽视，但这是一个很古老的名字 neglect but this is very old name
你会因为年龄而喜欢较新的名字吗 would you prefer newer names just because of age
还是你愿意接受这个 or will you take this
如果设置正确的话 if the setup is right
这不是第一阶段，这是第二阶段 it's not a stage one it's a stage two
就在这里 it's been you see right here
至少它是一个 at the very least it's a
早期转向第二阶段 early turn stage two
你知道 again you know
这是一个你可以在周五买的 this is one that you could have bought on Friday
它蹲 squat it
这并没有让你不得不卖掉它 that didn't do anything to make you have to sell it
现在它呆在里面了 and now it's staying inside
今天你可能会看到一个逆转复苏 and you might get a reversal recovery today
如果它紧绷绷的 if it stays tight and tightens up
它可以创造另一个支点 it could create another pivot
这甚至可能是一个更好的购买或附加 that would maybe even be a better buy or an add on
到目前为止，它还没有出什么问题 so so far it's not doing a whole lot wrong
他还问我 also he's asking on imo
作为一个例子 as an example
你会数多少个碱基 how many bases would you count
因为它在11月16日左右打破了第一阶段 since it broke stage one around the 16th of November
2020年你会重新开始吗 2020 would you start over
杯后计数 the count after the cup
12月27日handle爆发 with handle breakout on December 27th
那么有多少碱基你知道的 so how many bases well you know
需要多少长生不老药 how many elixirs does it take
去触碰敏感的音乐的中心 to get to the center of a touchy pop
你必须about you have to be about
55岁才知道这意味着什么 55 years old to know what that means
这里有一些碱基 you got a number of bases here you know you've got
当然这里有个底，这里有个底 of course you got a base here you got a base here
你在这里的根基很大 you got a big base here
这是一个大基数 I'll count this is one big base
这是三，所以你可能在第四阶段的基地 that's three so you are on maybe a 4th stage base here
所以你肯定 so you certainly
但是如果你想用的话，这里有一个很大的修正 but you have a big correction here if you want to use
你知道有些人说要重置 you know some people talk about a reset
如果你得到足够大的修正 if you get a big enough correction
我不知道，我们来测量一下 I don't know let's measure this
是的，大约有30%这是一个很大的修正 yeah with it that's about a 30% it's a large correction
你想用它来重置 you want to use that as a reset
也许你又回到了第二阶段的基地 maybe you're on your 2nd stage base again
我不会太纠结于基数计算 I wouldn't get too hung up in base counting
你知道的 you know that's
你知道当你得到 you know when you get
进入牛市 into a situation where you're in a bull market
已经持续很长时间了 it's been going for a long time
你现在看到的 you're now looking at
也许一些领导人 maybe some leaders
这一直引领着整个牛市 that have been leading the entire bull market
就像亚马逊和视频 like an amazon and a video
特斯拉Netflix a tesla Netflix
然后我想开始研究 then I want to start looking at
你知道有多少次了 you know how many bases it's been
这是一个拥挤的行业，每个人都参与 and this is a crowded trade that everybody's on
你会看到机构所有权 you're going to look at the institutional ownership
有7000家基金拥有它 there's 7000 funds that own it
你知道的 you know it's all
现在所有的供应都有很大的风险和供应 all supply now there's just tons of risk and supply
然后我开始考虑其他因素 and then I start looking at you know other factors
如果我进入后期基地 if I get into those late stage bases
它所做的就是告诉我 all it does is tell me
好吧，找那个被吹掉的，找那个 okay look for the blow off look for um
寻找细胞信号大的细胞信号 look for the cell signals the big cell signals you know
如果你交易 if you're trading
这样我就不用担心了 shorter term then I wouldn't even worry about that
跟你说实话 to be honest with you
好吧 all right
三是那个幼稚的流行问题的答案 three was the answer to the totsy pop question
顺便说一下，1 2 3 by the way 1 2 3
这是真的 that's true
猫头鹰对乌龟说 says the owl to the turtle
我正试着读呢 I'm trying to read it
最后五个问题 last five question
你说为什么专业交易员使用相同的 you saying why do pro traders use the same
让你的赢家驰骋 let your winners ride
在大多数市场，这似乎不起作用 it seems like in most markets this does not work
现在看来这不是什么好建议 it seems like not good advice these days
或者请帮助我更好地理解 or please help me understand better
你什么时候会继续制作培训视频 when will you continue creating training videos as well
所以 so
好了没有 well no
我想说 I would say that
不，你得让你的赢家自生自弃 no you do have to let your winners ride
你 what you're
不能忽略的是它与你的风险有关 not leaving out is it's relative to your risk
所以 so
假设你是一个即日交易者 let's say you're a day trader
好的，你的平均收益是0.5美元 all right and your average gain is $0.5
如果我们要用1分钟图表 well if we're to use a 1min chart
你很可能是 you'd most likely be
在你的成功者身上比失败者更长久 in your winners longer than your losers
如果你要有优势的话 if you have to have an edge
显然，你的失败者可以小一些 obviously your loser can have to be smaller
所以你是让你的赢家和你的 so you be letting your winners ride versus your
你的损失你还让你的赢家乘风破浪 your losses you still be letting your winners ride
即使你是当日交易 even though you're day trading
你的赢家会更大 your winners are gonna be larger
他们可能会被关更久 and they're probably gonna be held longer
而不是你的损失，或者至少他们应该平均起来 than your losses or at least they should be on average
这是相对的 so it's relative
这是相对的 it's relative
你说的是 what you're saying is
很多股票都涨了 oh a lot of stocks are breaking out
他们没有大动作 and they're not making big moves
所以我不应该，你知道 so I shouldn't I you know
我不该让我的赢家们骑得很好 I shouldn't let my winners ride well
如果是这样的话 if that's the case I mean
我不知道，我是说，看看这是什么 I don't know I mean look what is
看看这张图表 look at this chart right here
我是说，如果你是在这个骗人的地方买的 I mean if you bought this from this cheat area
而你却放任自流 and you just let it ride
你在这里有很大的收益 you have an awfully big gain here
有很多像这样的图表 there's tons of charts that look like this
可能几乎每个我交易的人，因为我需要 probably almost everyone that I trade because I require
一开始就有上升趋势，这是他的鹰 an up trend to begin with you know here's his eagle
你知道 you know
如果你想从这个大基地买东西 if you're buying off of this big base here or wherever
我的意思是你知道的 I mean you know again
你知道，这是相对的 you know you that's gonna be relative you know
如果你是在这个大的基础上购买的 here if you're buying coming out of this big base here
是的，点燃你的冬日之旅 yes lighting your winter ride would
会给你带来很大的好处吗 would have gotten you a big gain
就算你把我买东西的地方说出来 even if you brought up here where I was buying
与你的 versus your
相对于你的缺点，所以它只是相对于你的 versus your downside so it's just relative to your
你的风险回报关系 your risk reward relationship
好吧 okay
芮妮也想分享一下 renee just wanted to share also
她把我的警报用在了g和k的位置上 she was using my alert on her g and k position
它显示了延伸和非常延伸 which was showing extended and very extended
所以今天早上的空缺是 so this morning's gap up was
她从差价中获利的地方吗 where she took profits off the table on the gap up
让我看看，这样当 but let me see that so that when
那是什么时候，那是GNK，对吗 when was that that's gnk yeah
是什么时候, when was that
显示非常兴奋 showing very excited
最近 recently
看起来她是圣诞老人星期五 it looks like she was santa Friday
真的 really
我只是，我终于提起了 I just I finally I just brought up
我计算我的另一台电脑 I compute my other computer
我没有把它放在上面 I didn't have it up on
另一台电脑 another computer
我刚刚打开了另一台电脑，我正在看 I just brought up another computer I'm looking at it
我没看到 gnk I don't see it
我看到了反转警报 I see reversal alert
我没看到它说延伸 I don't see it saying very extended
但她把赚来的钱都卖到今早的亏空里了 but she sold the profits into this morning's gap and
感谢建模师 is thankful for modeler
约翰问过他关于ohn john has asked him about oh n
这是建立 this is setting up
设置 setting up
不，不，我的意思是它在右边 no no I mean it's it's run up this right side
你有一个压缩的右侧 you have a compressed right side
这是为我准备的 it's setting up for me
我想这是为一头公牛准备的 I think it's setting up for a bull back
你这是这是一个很大的角度 you this is this is a pretty big angle
的 of
脚踝d警告 ankle d warning
虽然实际上并没有下降多少 even though it's really not down much
它只是变平了 it's just flattening out
但你可以看到它是如何开始出现的 but you can see how it's just starting to turn up
你要离开了 and you're getting way away
你要 you're getting
你跑得太快了，你还 you're running way up while you're still
这里有点平 kind of flat here so
现在你可以看到它的右边是压缩的 and now you can see it's a compress right side
你可以看到它是如何从右边直上的 you can see how it comes straight up this right side
没有右侧发育 there's no right side development
就像这里 just like here
看它是怎么跑到这儿来的 see how it ran straight up here
这是角度d的警告 and here's the angle d warning right here
我来告诉你 let me show you
在这里，你超过了50，它还在上升 right here you're above the 50 and it runs up
这里的50是一个下降的趋势 and you see the 50 here is in a down trend
这就是为什么你会看到它在这里崩溃 and that's why you see it comes crashing down here
如果没有时间的话 if this doesn't have the time
你要直接进入补给站 and you're going right into the supply
当你把所有这些放在一起 when you put all these together
然后你迅速跑到右边 and you run up quick up the right side
你不允许右侧发育 you don't allow the right side to develop
你的货快用完了 and you're running into supply
所以你要明白 so you got to understand
想想这一切意味着什么 think about what this all means
这不是欺骗，这不是魔法 this is not hocus pocus this isn't magic
这是有原因的 there's a reason for it
原因是当你进入这个 the reason is is that when you come into this
这些是供给中的 into this supply these are
这些都是卖家 these are sellers
这些是潜在的卖家 these are potential sellers that got
我们称之为困住 what we call trapped
买股票的人 buyers who bought the stock up here
股票了 stock came off
现在回到这一点 now as it comes back to that point
他们销售 they're selling
人们从低点买入或者获利了结 and the people boarded off the lows or taking profits
为了把这些人从股票中抽走 in order to get those people out of the stock
你需要一些 you need some type of
撑杆回来，然后安静下来 pole back and some type of quieting down
给你们一个提示 to give you an indication that
这种供应不再进入市场 that supply is stopped coming to market
我们正在尝试 we're trying it now
这并不意味着没有大的 it doesn't necessarily mean that there isn't a big
买家和供应并没有消失 buyer and that supply isn't gone
股票涨不了 the stock can't go up
有时确实如此 it does at times
股价上涨，他们就会无视这一切 stock just rip higher and they'll defy all this
但一般来说 but generally speaking
能够从 and being able to trade from a
一系列我们知道会发生什么的环境 set of circumstances that we know what to expect from
这是我们希望看到的 this is what we want to see happen
因为它给了我们一个很好的暗示 because it gives us a good indication
供应停止进入市场 that that supply is stop coming to market
当这种供应现在停止进入市场 and when that supply stops coming to market now
股票 the stock
形成所谓的最小阻力线 forms what is called the line of least resistance
这要追溯到杰西·利弗莫尔 this goes all the way back to jesse livermore
早在20世纪20年代，他就在使用这些技术 he was using these techniques back in the 1920s
我今早刚发了关于杰西·利弗莫尔的推特 I just tweeted about jesse livermore this morning
这是一个赚了一亿美元的家伙 this is a guy who made $100 million
在20世纪20年代作为一个私人商人 in the 1920s as a private individual trader
在今天的条款 in today's terms
大约是15亿美元 that's about 1 billion and a half dollars
病得很重 pretty sick all right
一天交易赚了一百万美元 made $1 million in one day trading
当然，他自杀了，最后 of course he killed himself and ended up
我想是破产了，但是 I think dying broke but
但我认为他是有史以来最伟大的交易员 but I think he was the greatest trader of all time
有点像迈克·泰森 kind of like mike tyson
我认为迈克·泰森是最伟大的拳击手之一 I think mike tyson was one of the greatest boxer
就算不是史上最伟大的拳击手 if not the greatest boxer of all time
但是没有一个好的结局 but didn't have a great ending
不幸的是 unfortunately
这教会了我们 and which taught us
其他的经验也很有价值 other lessons which are very valuable
这里也一样 same thing here
你知道你跑到这里来，你 you know you're running up here and you're
现在你也跑到了相同的区域 now you're also running right up to that same area
在哪里 where
你在这里一次又一次被拒之门外 you have been turned away time and time again here
转身离开这里这里 turned away here here
现在你又回来了 and now you're back here again
我估计你会再次被拒之门外 and I expect you'll be turned away again
需要形成右边 and need to form that right side
丹问你能不能在这里加上奥施康定 all right dan is asking if you would add onto oxy here
他还想知道每个标记有多少个位置 and he's also wondering how many positions to each mark
目前有 have currently
奥施康定恰恰相反 oxy no just the opposite
你们看到了吗 did you see that
我停下来是因为 I moved to stop up because
相对而言，我不喜欢它的表现 I don't like relatively how it's acting
这也是一个非常随机的名字 and it's also a very random name
所以我不想 so I don't want to
还钱就开始赔钱 give back and start losing money
股票告诉我 on stocks that are telling me
嘿，有更好的股票表现更好 hey there's better stocks that are acting better
我是说bpt演得更好 I mean bpt is acting much better
FLNG表现得更好 flng is acting much better
它们当然是延伸的 of course they're extended
所以我就不加了 so I wouldn't add to it here
不，我不想加 no I wouldn't add
这是否意味着它不能工作 does it mean it can't work
但这并不意味着这就是个好决定 doesn't mean it does turn out to be a good decision
但我不想在这一点上补充 but I wouldn't add to it at this point
好吧 okay
但如果你要补充什么 but if you're gonna add to anything
你知道石油公司在起作用 you know the oil names are working
你知道的 you know that's
这是最有效的并且一直有效的方法 that's what's working the best and has been working
和你 and you
我想一直握着热手，直到它停止工作 want to stick with the hot hand until it stops working
这就是2021年发生的事情 that's exactly what happened in 2021 that
你知道 you know
让我成为了美国投资冠军 led to me when in the us investing championship
我就这么和性感的手呆在一起了吗 is I just stayed with the hot hands
是什么工作 what was working
你知道 you know
我们确定了一个主题，然后坚持下来 we identified a theme and just stayed with it and
我以为它会坏掉 I expected it to stop working and
你们很快就知道了 you know pretty quickly
它一整年都在工作 it kept working the whole year
看起来莎莉卡在问lxu looks like sharika is asking if lxu
会想要回调吗 would be looking to set up as a pullback
通过 by
如果它今天逆转 if it reverses today
好的, okay so
这当然在我们的名单上 this is on our list of course
让我把这些东西都拿出来 let me take all this stuff out here
它开始融入我 and it was starting to build into what I
你知道我 you know what I
画在这里 drew in here
但是现在你看到这里又上升到了50 but now you see it came up to the 50 here once again
你可以看到50是如何滚动的 you see how the 50 is rolling over
你得小心点，好吗 you got to be careful okay
因为即使我们假设即使这是 because even let's say even this were to
保持紧张的今天 stay tight today
或者这个有一个很好的结尾 or this has a good close
然后你明天就进去 and then you go inside tomorrow
现在你出来了 and now you come out
你会有麻烦的 well you're gonna be in a situation
哪里会像这样 where that's gonna be like that
这是50天 there's the 50 day
好的，看起来像一个移动，然后得到这个 alright looks like a move that and get that
50a大概是这样的 50 a is gonna be probably something like that
会平 will flatten it
可能有一点 out maybe a little bit
你会遇到角度d的情况 and you're gonna get into an angle d situation
所以 so again
我不想太纠结于角度d I don't want to get too caught up on an angle d
然后说 and say
我不能交易任何有角度d警告的东西 I can't trade anything that has the angle d warning
但我知道这一点 but I'm cognizant of that
右边还没有发育完全 that right side isn't fully developed
尤其是像我说的 especially like I said
如果下降幅度很大 if you've got a big decline
你有很多日常供应 and you've got a lot of overhead supply
但是这个你没有太多的间接供应 but this one you don't have a lot of overhead supply
所以我们得看看这是不是洗牌 so we got to see if this is a shakeout
你的问题是，这关得好不好 your question is if this closes good
到什么时候会出现回落 is it going to be a pullback by
嗯，是的，是的，它会让我们撤回 um yeah yeah it would make a pullback by
如果你明天进去 if you went inside to morrow
你知道我更想看它进到里面去 you know I would rather see it go inside
我更想看它进到里面去 and I'd rather actually see it go inside
可能会住几天 for maybe a couple days
这里应该很好 that this would be nice right here
它在里面呆了一天 it went inside for a day
然后第二天就打开了 and then the next day opened inside
然后从那里出来 and then came out from there
我可能仍然只会采取部分立场 I still probably would only take a partial position
尽管那时 though at that point
埃里克想问你能不能看一下 eric is asking if you could review the
伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(berkshire hathaway)贸易 berkshire hathaway trade
顺便说一下，欢迎回来 tick after by the way erk welcome back
离开了几个月之后 after being gone for a couple months
回来后说 came right back and is saying
他喜欢这个是因为 he likes this because
这看起来不像是一种典型的干预交易 it doesn't seem like rather a typical intervening trade
50日移动平均线呈下降趋势 the 50 day moving average in a down trend
因为它不是一只股票 because it's not a stock
这更像是一个索引 this is more of an index
这就像交易sb 500 this is like trading the sb 500
所以我不会用同样的方法来看待它 so I'm not going to look at it at the same way
我认为 and I think that
发生这种情况的几率 the chances of this
一路下滑，打破低谷 coming all the way down and taking out these lows
是很低 is quite low
如果我们有一个合理的底部 if we've even made a reasonable bottom here
我们的交易出现了反弹 and we got a trading rally
我几乎不能 I could barely
很容易把它弄起来 easily get this up
然后给它时间去构建 into the 50 day and then give it time to build
另一个主 another pivot
或者有一段时间不稳定 or be volatile for a while
而且离车站很远 and have a long distance from the stop
如果我能走得更远一点 if I can get a little bit ahead of the game here
这是一个我希望持有很长时间的 this is one that I be looking to hold for a long time
或 or
如果它当然 if it of course
如果它得到扩展，并且运行得非常快 if it gets extended and it runs up really fast
这将是可持续的 this is going to be sustainable
因为它是一个 because it's a
这是一种指标 it's sort of an index
它是一个索引，它被管理，但它是一个索引 it is an index basically it's managed but it's an index
你是对的 so yeah you're right
这并不典型，但我看到了机会 this is not typical but I see an opportunity here
我还希望这里能再高点呢 I was hoping that this was gonna move higher here
而不是像现在这样退缩 and not pull back like it is
你知道是我的，我在这里买了一些 you know I own it and bought some here
我们会看到 so we'll see but
但是再一次 but again
你知道 you know
我的交易方式更像是我的交易方式 I'm trading this more like I would trade you know
SMP 500，如果你愿意的话 the smp 500 if you will
这就像是我要做的交易 this is like a trade that I would make
我有一点 and I have a little
我女儿偶尔会告诉我 account from my daughter that occasionally
我会买这样的东西，或者买smp500 I'll buy something like this or I'll buy the smp 500
这就是我可能会做的交易 and this would be the type of trade I might make
这说明 in that that account to
你知道要长期持有 you know to hold it for a long term
看到这个问题 seeing the question
当你建议添加名字的时候 to paraphrase when you're recommending adding names
那 that
以前拥有的 were previously owned
和 and
这个评论发表在LRN上，我们已经拥有它了 the comment was on lrn we already own it
但是激进的 but aggressive
交易员可能会调整头寸 traders can potentially bump their positions
如果你用的是刚才那个停车点 if you should be using the same stop that was there
从原来的 from the original
通过点或你会使用一个停止基于 by point or would you be using a stop based on
以增加的仓位价格 at the added position price
好吧，马克，你怎么看 okay well mark what do you think
如果你要 if you were to
有一些不同的东西 so there's a few different things
一个人在加 one someone who's adding
然后有人在进行新的交易 and then someone who's making a new buy
所以如果你在这里增加一个职位 so if you were if you're adding to a position here
你会如何处理 how would you handle
你知道添加位置的停止 you know the stop on the added position
你会怎么处理 and how would you handle
如果你在这里开始工作 if you were initiating a position here
我也会用同样的方法 I would use the same
如果我要添加，我会从添加开始 if I was adding I'll start with the add
如果我加上我可能会 if I was adding I would probably
使用完全相同的句号 use the exact same stop as
这是发布在平台上的 that was posted on the platform
如果它能把那个高点除掉的话 in terms of once it takes out that high
现在是四万五千四百六十 it was at forty fifty forty sixty
你在什么地方处于新的高地 where you're sort of in new high ground
你不想看到外面的天气 you don't want to then see the outside day
所以我肯定会用它来做广告 so I would certainly use that for the ad
我可能会把它用于整个职位，所以 and I may use that for then for the whole position so
这就是你进步的方式 and that's how you sort of improve
你知道你 you know you're
或多或少是最坏的情况，对吧 more or less your worst case scenario right
我不得不说 there I've got say
假设你现在有一个更大的头寸 say you now have a bigger position
你已经接近收支平衡了 and you're running close to break even
就整体立场而言 on the whole position
所以你可以 so you're able to
增加更多的暴露 add more exposure without
实际上承担了更多的本金风险 actually taking more principal risk
如果我开始一份新工作 if I was starting a new position
我还是会用同样的方式对待它 I would still treat it the same way
我可能会用 I would probably just use
把手的底部 the low of the handle as
我对整个头寸的停止 my stop on the entire position
那么另一种选择是 then the other alternative is
你可以使用两个停止或交错 you can use two stops or stagger
用你的原稿然后 use your original and then
也许你不会买那么多股票 maybe you don't buy as many shares
我通常都是这么处理的 which is usually how I would handle it
也许你买了25个 maybe you maybe you buy 25
多百分之几的股份之类的 you know % more shares or something like that
那样你还是没有 that way you're still not
把平均成本提高太多了 running up your average cost too much
gt gt
这是一个完美的例子 gt this is a perfect example of what we call
增加减少 an adding reduce
你知道你会在哪里使用它 where you know you're going to use it when you get
某些机会 certain opportunities
我想这就是原因 and this I think gives
给了一个使用的机会 gives an opportunity to use
就像我说的，我们称之为加和减 well like I said what we call and add and reduce
我们现在就到此为止 our stop right now
或者我们之前的一站 or our previous stop
上一站是什么，我没有那个 what was a previous stop on this I don't have that
我知道我们的站是3855 I know where our stop is now at 3855
在这里 which is up here
我们之前的一站是在下面吗 what was our previous stop was it below here
你还记得 you remember
它刚刚低于36 it was just below 36 mark
我想说353585 I want to say thirty five thirty five eighty five
一共是三十五八十五 there is thirty five eighty five
在这里，对吧 which was over here right yeah
三十五八十五 thirty five eighty five
好，我们用这个低点 okay so we're using this low
这是我们买的最初的止损权 so this is the original stop right and we bought
从这里出来 coming out right here
我在这里画一条线 I'm just gonna draw a little line right there
所以我们来了，我们买了出来 so we came we bought coming out
现在股票上涨了 here okay now stock runs up
现在我们来看看原子为什么会减少 now the reason why an atom reduce
马克说的很有道理 makes sense here is exactly what mark said
你买了，你加了 you're buying now you're adding okay
从这里往外加 you're adding coming out of here
现在你知道在哪了 and now you have where
如果它能把枢轴的下端拉出来 if it should take out the low in this pivot
你吞没了整个轴心，就会导致轴心失效 you engulf the whole pivot and you get a pivot failure
所以如果它要这样做 so if it was to do this
所以我把我的站移到了那个位置 and that's why I moved my stop up to that
那 that
今天早上38点55分 thirty eight fifty five this morning
因为它现在表现不正常 because now it's acting abnormal
现在你要做的是 so now what you do is
你在整个仓位上增加止损点 you move your stop up on the whole position
发生的是 andwhat happens is is that
新的止损点现在是原来位置的一个支撑 the new stop is now a backstop on the original position
还能赚点小钱 actually making a little profit on the
在初次购买时 on the initial buy
因为它比购买价高 because it's higher than the purchase price
然后和新的一站上 and then and the new stop on the
上瘾者的股票处于亏损状态 addict shares is at a loss
所以你增加了尺寸，却没有增加手腕 so you're adding size without adding wrist
你实际上是在减少你的手腕 you're actually reducing your wrist
因为你的手腕 because your wrist
你现在的站在这下面 your stop right now is way down here
我们设它为7% so let's just call that 7%
现在你可能有。假设这里有5%或6% now you may have let's say have a5% or a 6% here
但你有2%或3%的利润 but you're taking two or 3% profit
你现在减少了损失，增加了体型 you've now reduced your loss and you've added size
而这正是你要做的 and this is precisely how you would do that
如果这有意义的话 if that makes sense
我们在大规模贸易项目上讨论过这个问题 we talk about this at the massive trader program
和其他 and other
位置管理技术是这样的 position management techniques that are like this
这是一个概念 this is a concept
如果让我来回顾，我会的 if I was reviewing this I would
掌握这个概念 master this concept
我认为你会在市场上赚很多钱 and I think you'll make a lot of money in the market
是的是的 yeah yeah
有时这很令人沮丧，因为 and now sometimes it's frustrating because
你知道你在盈利，然后你加上 you know you're at a profit and then you add
然后折起来 and then you crimp up
停止，它停止了一切 the stop and it stops out of everything
然后它起飞并上升 and then it takes off and goes up
你说如果我不加的话 and you said boy if I just didn't add that
我只是抱着 and I just held
我原来的停止 my original stop
你知道 you know
我就不会大老远跑到那里去 I would have never come all the way down there
我仍然会在这个位置上 and I would still be in the position
这是真的，这是真的 that's true that's true
但你不会有额外的机会 but you wouldn't have the added opportunity to make
钱多风险小 more money at less risk
所以它们相互抵消 so they offset each other
这取决于你想用什么样的方式来处理它 it depends on the way you want to approach it
你知道 you know
这取决于市场的运行情况 and depending on how things are running in the market
你的自信和许多因素 you're confidence and a number of factors
但这是一种方法 but this is a way to
提高你的风险回报的数学 improve the math as far as your risk reward
有关 is concerned
有一件事我可以加一点颜色 one of the thing I can just add for a little more color
所以这里的测量 so that measurement there
所以有时候你能做的就是说好 so sometimes what you can do is to say okay
我不想再冒任何风险了 I don't want to take any more total risk
如果你算一下，你就能跑了 then if you do the math you can actually run
我的头寸应该增加多少 well how much should I bump my position sized by
也许你只撞了三分之一因为基于 so maybe you only bump it by a third because based on
你们知道的 you know the mount
你会输的 you're gonna lose on the bump
相对于你在初始阶段所要支持的东西 relative to what you're gonna back stop on the initial
非常好的观点 very good point very good point
这是我应该说的 that's something I should have said
而马克的意思是你没有 and what mark is saying is that you don't
必须把仓位翻倍 have to double the position
你可以少占点位置 you can take less of a position
然后当然 and then that's going to of course
影响数学 affect the math
你还会增加你的优势吗 where you're going to also increase your upside
但是你会有 but you're going to have
你知道你会有更少的负面影响 you know you're going to have less downside
因为当它进来的时候 because now when it comes in
它会减少你的收益 it's going to chip off less of your gain
你用后挡板锁住了 that you're locking in with the back stop
这是有道理的 this makes sense
如果不合理也不用担心 and don't worry if it doesn't make sense
听起来很多 and it sounds like a lot
随着时间的推移，你会理解这一点的 you will understand this over time
坚持下去 just stick with it
继续参加这些会议 and keep coming to these sessions
你会明白的 and you'll understand this
和 and the
的事情 things
因为有些人会花时间去思考各种可能性 for some people takes time to think in probabilities
有些人用绝对的方式思考 some people think in very absolute terms
他们认为 they think
他们是线性思考者，他们很难 they're very linear thinkers and they have a hard time
通过这些相对方程 with these type of relative equations
还有其他像我一样的人 and there's other people like myself
我是一个相对的思考者 where I'm a very relative thinker
我很难用白纸黑字来思考 and I have a hard time thinking in black and white
你知道我 you know I
用概率和百分比来思考会更好 think in probabilities and percentages a lot better
还有一些你认识的人 and then some people you know
比如马克·里奇，他是个天才 like mark richie who's a genius
能做什么就做什么 can do what do it all
他脸红 he's blushing
以及暴露出生的百分比 and the percentage of exposure birth
那是什么 what's that
暴露的百分比 the percentage of exposure
你们现在都有 both you currently have
哦，百分之三十左右 oh a percentage invested about 30%
是的，我，我没有超过 yeah I'm I haven't gone above
好吧，我要撑一晚上 well I'm holding over night
我今天还没超过25%或30% I haven't gone above 25 or 30% in today
我还在上升 I'm still you know going up
我都不知道该不该跟你说实话 and I don't even know to be honest with you
我有时会去那里买一些股票 I going there and I buy some position sometimes
我甚至不确定你知道我暴露在什么情况下 and I'm not even sure you know what my exposure is in
但有时我已经完全投入了 today but sometimes I'm running up to fully invested
家务问题法案 housekeeping question bill
当mard摆姿势的时候 when mard posed by now
如果它没有说明二分之一或四分之一大小的仓位 if it's not stating a half or a quarter sized position
默认情况下是满仓 that does default to a full position
是的，但是好吧，让我们 well yes but okay let's let
我们真的必须这么做 we really got to have to
你知道的，因为我们没有 you know qualify that one because we do not
这不是典型的投资组合 this is not a model portfolio
这不是一个投资组合 okay this is not a portfolio
你有25个位置 it's like oh you have 25 positions
你说你才四八岁 you say you're only by four or eight
是的,我们只是 yes we're just
列出符合买入标准的股票 putting the stocks that meet the buy criteria
这里并不是告诉你买所有这些东西的港口 this isn't a port full of telling you to buy all these
但你可能是 but you might be
我们开始购买 we started buying
股票或投资股票 stocks or putting stocks
或者把股票作为未平仓头寸 or putting stocks as open positions
回到这里 on the going back here
在这个位置上，百合的开放远可追溯到5 18 on the position that are open as far back as 5 18 lily
就是我们买的那个 that was the one that we bought that
我们买的第一家现在还开着 the first one we bought that's open now
让我们这么说吧 let's put it that way
LRN在这里移动，这很好 and there's lrn moving up here so that's great
我们等一下，先看看这个 let's hold on let's look at that first
我接到警报说我不是 I got an alert on that I'm not
把这本小妖精书都拿出来 let's take out all this goblin book here
这样我们就能知道发生了什么 so we can see what's going on
这些你都知道 you know all this right
现在看到了，learn又回到了这里 so now see you've got that learn is coming back here
看，你得到了反转 see you got that reversal
你会看到早期的逆转 you got that early day reversal
这个表现得很好 and this is acting really well
如果我们能买到好衣服，而你 and if we can get a good clothes and you get
这是一个新的高地，这是一个巨大的行动 it's a new high ground here that is tremendous action
你肯定不想卖 you definitely would not want to sell
所以 so again
你看到 you see
你不能因为外面的天气就恐慌 you can't just panic because you get that outside day
早起蹲下 get that early day squat
你想给它 you want to give it
这一天剩下的时间，坚持原来的停止 give it the rest of the day and stick to original stop
我把它变宽或者变紧到 I widened it or I tightened it to a point that
在哪里 where the
交易开始看起来完全不正常 trade started looking like it was completely abnormal
还有打高尔夫球 and golfing the pivot
那是我想卖的地方 that's where I would sell
但不只是今天，因为它回调了 but not just in today because it pulled back
现在它开始表现得很好了，所以我们 now it's starting to act pretty good here so let's
希望我们能让它 let's hope we can get this to
在这里有一件好衣服 to have a good clothes here
我在吃什么 what was I on
我买的是什么股票 what stock was I on
鲍勃 bob
我只是对全尺寸的位置感到压力 well I was just pression about the full size position
但我没看见 but I didn't see
我举过例子，我不记得我是什么了 I had the example up I can't remember what I was
来吧 come on
你们这里面肯定有人知道 you guys there must be someone in there that knows
我老了，我不记得这些事了 I'm getting old man I can't remember these something
我正在说话呢 I was in the middle of saying something
是莉莉 was lily
好的，莉莉，好的，我们回去吧 yes lily yes okay let's go back
我想说的是 so what I was saying was is that
所以我们有50个职位空缺 so we could have 50 positions open
好吧，因为这就是 okay because that's what
这就是建立和爆发的东西 that's what's set up and broke out
我们要把它们穿上 and we're gonna put them on
因为这就是告诉你的 because that's exactly what's telling you
市场是什么样的，机会是什么 what the market is like and the opportunities
但是我们的成员会为每一个 but we have members that come on to service every
就在这一天，你在518买了莉莉 single day so you're buying lily at on five 18
你在525买安培 and you're buying amph on five 25
你买鹰牌的价格是5美元31美分 and you're buying eagle at 5 31
现在是66 and now it's six six
你知道今天 you know today
你完全投入了 and you're fully invested
一个刚进来的人 well someone who just came in
他们需要买些东西 they need to buy something
今天的安排 you know so the setups that come today
他们可能在他们的投资组合中 they might be in their portfolio
所以 so again
这不是一个模型投资组合，你们必须完全 this is not a model portfolio you guys have to fully
明白, understand that
完全职位和半职位不代表 and full positions and half positions do not represent
不代表投资组合中的头寸大小 do not represent position sizing in a portfolio
它们只是表示时间顺序 they just represent chronology
所以如果我摆成四分之一的姿势 so if I'm if if I put on a quarter position
它只是在说，嘿 it's just saying that hey
现在还不是时候 this is not at the point where
它将符合标准 it would meet the criteria that
你知道我想要一个全职的职位 you know I would want to put on a full position
因为我可以把它放大 simply because I might be able to scale into this
也许这是一个低级的欺骗，还有一些工作要做 maybe it's a low cheat that still has some work to do
现在会有了 and and now there will be
我推测会有额外的 I'm speculating that there's going to be additional
Bypoints指向指向哪里 bypoints to parament into where
你知道，另一只股票可能是完美的 you know another stock might be perfect
甚至可能是我要去的地方 and it might even be where I take
我说的是四分之一的姿势，非常完美 I'm saying a quarter position and it is perfect
但我已经选了很多职位了 but I've already taken a lot of positions
我已经投资了一段时间 I've already been invested for ex period of time
我认为风险开始增加 and I think the risk is starting to increase
因为有很多延伸股 because there's a lot of extended stocks
可能有很多原因 there could be a lot of reasons
所以 so again
你不能解读我们发布的内容 you cannot read into what we put out
作为一个模型组合 as a model portfolio
你应该模仿任何东西 and that you should be mimicking anything
与接触 with exposure
positionizing positionizing
你有什么接触 what's your exposure
你别再担心我们的曝光率了 you got to stop worrying about our exposure what
你担心你的曝光率 you worry about your exposure
你的仓位大小是多少 your position size it what
我现在的杠杆率是400% so okay so I tell you I'm 400% leveraged right now
你打算这么做吗 are you gonna go do that
也许你是也许如果你是愚蠢的 maybe you're maybe if you're stupid
如果你要这么做，你就是 you are if you're gonna do it
我说的愚蠢是指 and I say stupid I mean
因为你知道 because you know
在最好的情况下，你的手腕承受能力只有50% your wrist tolerance is only 50% in best it
但现在因为马克·米纳瓦尼在做这件事 but now cause mark minervani's doing it
你要去 you're gonna go and
大胆尝试，抓住机会 shoot for the moon and take that chance
不不 no no
你有一个仓位大小根据 you've got a position size according to
你的手腕宽容 your wrist tolerance
不是我不 not mine not
并不意味着财富 not mark riches
好吧 okay
好，最后一个问题，我们继续 all right one last question and let's move on
正确的 right
我的问题问得很好 it was a good question that I had
我有点提前读了 and I kind of was reading ahead
对苔藓 to moss
谢谢你！ thank you
今天有新成员加入，所以欢迎他加入 new member joining today so he's welcome aboard
卢卡的问 luka's asking
有没有一个快速的方法来计算我增加的头寸 is there a quick way to calculate my added position
尺寸从我想要的平均成本开始计算 size starting from the average cost I want to come out
有没有一个快速的方法来计算我的 is there a quick way to calculate my
添加的位置大小 added position size
从平均成本开始 starting from the average cost
我想出来 I want to come out
是的 yeah
你开始交易记录器 you start trading logger
软件 software
好吧 okay
我想卢卡能不能帮我澄清一下 I think I wonder if luca maybe can help clarify
也许下周我们会更深入地讨论这个问题 or maybe next week we'll get to it more deeply
但如果他 but if he
问他会加多少钱 is asking how much would he be adding
当你给a加的时候 when you're adding to a
当前位置 current position
我想这可能是他想问的 I think that might be more what he's trying to ask
这是一个非常模糊的问题 I this is a very vague question
我不假设也不模糊我不知道 I don't hypothetical and vague I don't know
我不知道它指的是什么参数 I don't know the parameters of what it's referring to
好吧 okay
说了这么多，我们的时间到了 well with that said guys we are at our time
那声音很低 that was a low note
再来一个怎么样 how about one more
这是 that's
这样就像 like that's like
你知道我以前在教练身上打网球的时候 you know when I used to play tennis on my coach
他不会让我离开的 he would never let me leave
直到最后我打了一球 until I hit a great shot at the end
很多关于股票的问题 a lot of stock questions guys
作为一个提醒 as also as a reminder
你可以使用该平台上的dropbox功能 you can use the simple dropbox feature on the platform
放入股票代码 to put in ticker symbols
这将会得到 that will get
进入马克思的电脑让他能够复习 into marx computer for him to be able to review
今天有很多关于股票的问题 lot of questions with stocks today
名字终于在这里起作用了 with names starting to finally work here
拉胡尔问你做了多少笔最大交易 rahul is asking how many maximum trades have you taken
在今天买进股票 while buying stocks in today
为你的摇摆姿势提供资金 to finance your swing positions
我平常吃多少药?我今天吃了多少药 how many do I normally take how have I taken today
我不明白 I don't understand
我做了多少次最大交易 how many maximum trades and I've taken
而在金融动荡的今天，买入会卡住 while buying stucks in today to financial swings
我不知道 I have no idea
听着，我现在也不知道 look I don't know off the top of my head
告诉你我做了多少交易 tell you how many trades I've taken
最大值我不知道 maximum I don't know
没了脑袋，我没法骂你 I can't tell you off without my head
无论你知道的 whatever's you know
不管盘子上是什么 whatever's coming across the plate
而且交易看起来也不错 and trades are looking good
我会继续交易它们 I'm gonna keep trading them
我是说，如果今天这里有20笔交易 I mean if there was 20 trades that set up here today
我想把它们都换掉 I tried to trade them all
直到我把钱花光 until I ran out of money
你知道，基本上就是这样 you know it's that's basically it
我是说当事情进展顺利的时候 I mean mark when things are going well
我的意思是你一直买，直到你买不到为止 I mean you just buy until you can't buy anymore right
对，我想我也不知道这个数字 right yeah I guess I wouldn't know that number either
我猜可能是10个 maybe 10 I'm guessing
可能是10个，也可能是一打 could be 10 could be a dozen
这要看情况 you know that depends
理论上是的 yeah theoretically
是啊，你每次都要把它甩出去 yeah you're going to swing it every juicy pitch you get
最终你只能依靠购买力 and eventually you just run on a buying power
这是你知道的底线 that's the bottom line you know
你得做个决定 and you got to make a decision
你是否要卖东西买 whether you're gonna sell something to buy
其他的东西 something else
或者你获利 or you take a profit
我想你可能指的是 yeah I think you might have been referring to
你知道一些短期交易 you know some of the shorter term trading
就连你也在做去年的成绩 even you were doing last year mark
你做的交易比 where you were doing a lot more trading than
也许你平时也会这么做 maybe even you would normally do
说着说着，给予 saying that and a give
但即使是短期交易 but even with the short term trading
我的意思是，你知道，我只是在用我的购买力买东西 I mean I'm just you know buying up to my buying power
如果有安排，你知道的 if there's setups you know
以及短线交易 and with the short term trading
我更有可能 I'm even more likely to
把船装满，因为我没有一夜之间的风险 load the boat because I don't have the overnight risk
你知道，我的行程很紧 you know and I've got a very tight stop
就像我说的，去年 like I said you know last year
有几次我做了一笔生意 there was times where I went into a trade
我真的去了一笔有便士止损的交易 I literally went to a trade with a penny stop
我的意思是我不经常，但偶尔会 I mean I wasn't often but every now and then
我记得gt就是其中之一 I remember gt was one of them
我进入了gt I went into gt
我买了喜欢 I bought like
我忘了五万把椅子或者七万股gt I forget 50,000 chairs or 70,000 shares of gt
用一分钱 with like a penny
然后有几次我买了个镍币停车器 and then a couple times I went on with a nickel stop
我只是想把它做好 and just trying to get it dead right
你知道它只需要增加一些感觉 and again you know it only has to go up a couple sense
你知道对我来说是一个数学 you know for me to be a mathematically
你知道这是笔好买卖 you know good trade to get to get
你知道的，这是对我钱的奖励 an edge you know a reward on my money
如果我花五分钱进去 if I go in there with a nickel stop
涨了0.15美元，我买了5万把椅子 and it goes up $0.15 and I buy 50,000 chairs
我只会自己观察 and I just scout myself
一点点撕裂，然后 a little a little rip and
我仍然保持着我的风险回报关系 and I still maintain my risk reward relationship
我在想也许 I was thinking maybe
我们会看到事态的发展 we'll see how things develop here and
我们现在有多忙，有多少交易在进行 how busy we are here and how much trading is going on
但它很适合 but it fit quiets down
如果有很多关于股票的问题 maybe if there are a lot of stock questions maybe
周中或周末 mid week or the end of the week
或者下周我们可以只做一只股票 or maybe even next week we can do a stock only
Q放大器一段 q amp a session
你觉得这是个好主意，请举手 you think that's a good idea maybe raise your hand
我不知道 I don't know if
因为也许你们很多人都不是 because maybe a lot of you are not
回答你的常见问题 getting your stock questions answered
我们基本上可以像闪电一样 and we can do just basically like a lightning round
我们会做我们会做一个minervani we'll do we'll do a minervani
markrichie闪电轮 markrichie lightning round
你们就扔些简单的东西 where you guys just throw simples
我们只会 and we'll just
评论股票 comment on stocks like
你知道的，像奶油或闪电圆 you know like a cream or lightning round
很多人都举手了 getting a bunch of hands being raised for that
好的，现在我们可以这样做了 all right now we can do that
也许这是我们能做的 maybe that'll be something we can do
我们可以做一个周期性的闪电循环 we can do a periodic lightning rounds
好吧，伙计们，一如既往 all right well with that said guys as always
寻找回放张贴在这里，随时 look for the replay to be posted here momentarily
也寻找 also look for
现场直播更新了本周的想法 live stream updates thoughts were made of the week
说到这里 and with that said
谢谢你 thank you for
今天好好记录下你的时间，我们会回来的 mark and mark your time today and we'll get back at it
我们今天就来解决这个问题 and that we'll take care of it for today
好,谢谢大家 okay thanks guys
稍后再聊 talk to you guys later
监控平台 monitor the platform
再见再见再见 bye bye bye